Zambia - Fisheries Development Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CR IS-15L22 Repon No P-3856Z& REPORT AiID RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDEINT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT OF SDR 7.1 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FOR A FISHERIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT November 2, 1984 I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may net otberwise be disclosed without World Bank aotion.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 ZK 1.60 ZK I US$0.63 (The Zambian Kwacha is officially valued in terms of a basket of currencies, for which the US dollar is the intervention currency. Since July 1983, the Government has followed a flexible exchange rate policy, making periodic adjustments in the official value of the Kwacha. The rates expressed above are as of August 1984.) WEIGETS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km) 0.624 miles 1 sq kilometer (km2) - 0.386 sq miles I kilogram (kg) 2.2046 1 metric ton (ton) 1,000 kg = 2,204.6 pounds 1 liter = 1.057 US quarts ABBREVIATIONS AFC Agricultural Finance Company CFC Cattle Finance Company DBZ Development Bank of Zambia DOF Department of Fisheries FAO = Food and Agricultural Organization GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia MAWD Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development MOF = Ministry of Finance NAMB = National Agricultural Marketing Board SIDA = Swedish International Development Agency INDP = Third National Development Plan ZADB = Zambia Agricultural Development Bank ZESCO = Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation ZimCO = Zambia Industrial and Mining Corporation FISCAL YEAR GRZ Fiscal Year January I-December 31 ZADB Fiscal Year January I-December 31  FOR OFFICUIL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FISHERIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Zambia. Beneficiary: Zambia Agricultural Development Bank (ZADB) and Nkwazi Manufacturing Company. Amount: SDR 7.1 million (US$7.1 million equivalent). Term>-: Standard. Use of Credit: (i) US$2.8 million to ZADB for sub-loans (for fish production, collection and marketing) as equity capital. Sub-loans would have maturities of up to five years, with interest not lower than the maximum rate allowed on agricultural credit (currently 15 percent per annum), plus two percent comnitment fee and two percent loan processing fees; (ii) US$0.3 million to ZADB (for technical assistance) as a grant; (iii) US$1.0 million to be purchased with local currency by Nkwazi Manufacturing Company to finance imports of raw materials and machinery spares for fishing net manufacture; (iv) US$2.6 million to be retained by Government for technical assistance and training (US$1.2 million), and facilties (US$1.0 million) for the Department of Fisheries, and (b) project coordination, monitoring and evaluation (US$0.4 million); and (v) US$0.4 million to cover physical and price contingencies. Project Description: The project would support the Government's strategy for agricultural development by increasing fish supplies; and strengthening two key institutions in the sector. Specifically, it would provide: credit to artisanal and commercial fishermen for fish production; credit for fish marketing facilities; foreign exchange assistance for the manufacture of fishing nets; and technical assistance. I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance or their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Project The implementation of the project would increase fish Description: production by about 10 percent and raise incomes of about (continued) 3,500 fishing families from an average of K 1,400 to about K 2,800 per family. Technical assistance would strengthen ZADB and the Department of Fisberies (DOF). Major project risks are: that ZADB may not develop as planned due to under-capitalization; and that DOF way not be allocated adequate operating funds. To minimize these risks, Government would be required to complete its contributions to ZADB's capital within four years (1984-87); and make adequate budgetary allocations for DOF's operations.  - iii - Estimated Cost Local Foreign Total ---USS Million - Credit services 1.14 2.72 3.86 Net Manufacturing Facilities 0.11 0.90 1.01 Management of Fish Resources 0.60 2.23 2.83 Coordination, Manitoring and Evaluaton 0.05 0.14 0.49 Total Baseline Cost 1.90 6.29 8.Iq Physical Contingencies 0.05 0.07 0.12 price Contingencies 0.73 1.60 2.33 Total 2.68 7.96 10.64 (Of which taxes and duties) (1.10) (1.10) Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total --.USS million IDA - 7.1 7.1 Government 1.5 0.9 2.4 Sub-Borrowers' Contribution 1.1 - 1.1 2.6 8.0 10.6 Estimated Disbursements of IDA Credit: IDA FY 85 86 87 88 89 90 ZUSS Million Annual 0.4 n.8 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.4 Cwmulative 0.6 1.2 3.5 5.7 6.7 7.1 Rate of Return: 26 percent. Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 5012-ZA of October 31, 1984 Map: No. IERD 18135  INTERNAIIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION " REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO TIfE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FOR A FISHERIES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT * 1. *I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to the Republic of Zambia for SDR 7.1 million (US$7.1 million equivalent) on standard terms to help finance a Fisheries Development Project. US$2.8 million of the credit for sub-loans for fish production, collection and marketing would be passed to Zambia Agricultural Development Bank (ZADB) as equity capital; and USSO.3 million would be given as a grant to finance :echnical apsistance services. Sub-loans would have maturities of up to five years, with interest of not lower than the maximum rate allowed on agricultural credit (currently 15 percent per annum) plus a commitment fee of two percent and a loan processing fee of two percent. A US$1.0 million foreign exchange facility would be provided to Nkwazi Manufacturing Company, tbrough the Banir of Zambia, against payment of local currency equivalent, to finance imported raw materials and machinery spares for fishing net manufacture. The balance of the credit would finance technical assistance for project implementation, moaitoring and evaluation and strengthening the Department of Fisheries. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A Country Economic Memorandum on Zambia (Report No. 5000-ZA) was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 24, 1984. This part is based on that report's findings. Co-.mtry data sheets are attached as Annex I. 3. Zambia's economy is heavily dependent on external trade and on government activity. Imports and exports range between 40 and 45 percent of GDP. Government expenditures amount to about 40 percent of GDP, and the Government owns a majority share of mining and most manufacturing enterprises. Copper mining provides over 90 pe_cent of foreign exchange earnings and 15 percent of gross value added. Much economic activity is dependent on expatriate technical, managerial, and administrative skills. Current Economic Situation 4. Zambia continues to experience an economic and financial crisis initiated by a sharp decline in copper prices in 1975. Zambia's terms of trade bave deteriorated steadily since then, and by 1982, were 60 percent below the average for the early 1970s. In 1982, copper prices reached their lowest level in real terms in the post-World War II era; they recovered somewhat in 1983 and early 1984, but have fallen sharply in recent months and are now below the depressed levels of 1982. Real GDP has been in a general downward trend since 1975, declining on an average by about one percent per year. lWith population growing by 3.3 percent per  -2- annum, real GDP per capita is 25 percent lower than in 19474. GNP per capita was estimated at US$640 in 1982, using the World Bank Atlas methodology, but is now much lower as a result of major devaluations of the Kwacha in 1983 and 1984. 5. The balance of payments has been in chronic disequilibrium since 1975, with current account deficits climbing to an average of 19 percent of GDP in 1980-82. The deficit was reduced sharply to 9 percent of GDP in 1983, however, and is expected to be in this range for 1984. Nevertheless, the volume of imports has declined steadily and is now 75-80 percent below its level in 1974. This has resulted in an economy-wide problem of severe underutilization of capacity and, especially in the mining sector, a large backlog of maintenance and rehabilitation requirements which has contributed directly to a declining trend in copper production and exports. The large current account deficits led to heavy external borrowing, accumulation of arrears on import payments, and a draw-down of international reserves. At the end of 1983, Zambia's total external liabilities stood at almost US$4.5 billion, including drawings from the IMF and about US$500 million in overdue commercial payments. By comparison, merchandise exports amounted to somewhat over US$1 billion. 6. The decline in copper prices also severely affected Zambia's fiscal and monetary positions. In the past, mineral taxes provided a large share of government revenue, but they have been negligible since 1976. Deficit financing absorbed a large share of net domestic credit and contributed to a sharp rise in consumer prices, averaging 20 percent per annum during 1976-78 and 12 percent per annum in 1979-82. Price increases have accelerated in 1983 and 1984 to about 20-25 percent per annum, reflecting the decontrol of prices in December 1982 and the devaluations of the Kwacha during the past two years. 7. There is no doubt that external factors have been an important cause of Zambia's present economic difficulties. Apart from low copper prices, otber factors over which the Government bas little or no control include transport difficulties in neighboring countries on which Zambia is dependent for the movement of foreign trade, severe droughts,which for three consecutive years have necessitated substantial food imports, and, last but not least, the fact that copper mining in Zambia is past its peak, and that for technical reasons, such as sinking deeper shafts and tapping less rich ore bodies, higher costs have to be incurred to maintain past levels of production. 8. Nevertheless, inappropriate policies and shortcomings in economic management have exacerbated the economic difficulties. The main deficiencies in economic policies were that: (i) pricing and subsidy policies favored the urban consumer at the expense of the agricultural producer, depressing the latter's income and incentive to produce for the market; also, controlled industrial prices led to low profitability in the manufacturing sector and a decrease in resources available for reinvestment; (ii) tax incentives and low interest rates led to a pattern of capital intensive investment; (iii) exchange rate and tariff policies have encouraged the use of artificially cheap imported raw materials and other inputs and discouraged the use of local materials. As a result, a highly capital and import-intensive productive structure was created that  -3- proved to be very vulnerable to prolonged declines in the availability of foreign exchange. Also, little progress was made in developing the use of local resources and diversifying production and exports. Strategy for Economic Restructuring 9. Economically exploitable ore reserves are only sufficient to maintain present levels of copper production for another 15 years or so, after which production can be expected to decline sharply, In the long run, therefore, the copper industry cannot be counted on to provide the domestic and external resources required for development. In the absence of policies and programs to develop new sources of income, employment and foreign exchange, Zambia may expect a drastic fall in living standards and social well-being by the turn of the century. However, Zambia bas the potential to develop alternative sources of income, employment, and exports. The greatest potential is in agriculture, where there are opportunities for import substitution (cotton, oilseeds, livestock, grains, sugar, forestry products, and fish) and for exports (beef, cotton, coffee, tobacco, groundnuts, and sugar). Once a good start is made with agricultural development, possibilities will be created for agro-based industries. 10. For any long-term growth strategy to succeed, however, it is of the utmost importance that financial balance in the economy be restored first. As the main provider of foreign exchange, the copper industry bas a major role to play. However, it is essential that previous levels of efficiency are restored to make the industry profitable again and competitive in world markets. Without a rehabilitated copper industry, the Government's diversification effort would fail for lack of financial resources. For this reason, the Bank recently approved an Export Rehabilitation and Diversification Project which aims to increase the efficiency of the mining industry and make it competitive again by international standards. This project was also accompanied by appropriate macro-economic and sector policy changes aimed at restructuring and diversifying the rest of the economy in order to create the conditions for developing new sources of income, exports and employment. 11. The Government, with Bank assistance, has developed a package of policies and measures to bring about better ecorsomic management and a policy environment conducive to healthy economic growth and diversification. The Government's economic restructuring policies may be summari;ed as follows: - Providing a system of incentives to producers and exporters of agricultural and industrial products in which prices are responsive to market forces; - Allowing greater competition in the procurement and selling of food crops. The National Agricultural Marketing Board (NAMBOARD), the Government's agricultural marketing agency, will move towards the role of buyer and seller of last resort, using a system of floor and ceiling prices for agricultural produce and inputs, respectively;  -4- Improving planning and budgetary procedures to shift resources to productive investment. - Using wages and interest rate policies to reverse past trends of increasing consumption and declining investment; - Improving the management of foreign debt; - Strengthening the technical and managerial capacity of Zambia Industrial and Mining Corporation (ZIMCO), which is the holding company of most state-controlled enterprises; - Restructuring the energy sector to bring about lesser dependence on imported oil; and - Ensuring the competitiveness of exports through an active exchange rate policy. 12. In recent months, the Government has made cammendable progress in translacing the above policies into tangible action. It has introduced institutional reforms to improve economic management and has introduced a number of changes in economic policies which constitute the beginning of an integrated program of short-term financial stabilization and longer-term growth and diversification. It is a program in which actions developed in cooperation with the IMF and the Bank complement and reinforce one another. 13. A program to restore financial stability was set in motion in 1983. A one-year stand-by arrangement was agreed with the IMF, and a debt rescheduling agreement was reached with the members of the Paris Club. As part of the IMF program, the Kwacha was devalued by 20 percent in January 1983, and, in July 1983, the value of the Kwacha was linked to a variable basket of currencies. Since then, the Government has adjusted the exchange rate in a gradual manner such that it is now more than 50 percent lower than at the end of 1982. Because the Government has been successful in holding wage increases to considerably less than rises in the cost of living, it has maintained the benefits of devaluation in real terms, which has improved the competitiveness of exports. Further measures taken under the IMF program included increases in interest rates and tough budgetary measures (including substantial reductions in subsidies and a cap on new government employment) aimed at reducing the Government's domestic borrowing. The program succeeded in reducing the current account deficit to less than 10 percent of GDP and domestic bank borrowing by the Government to less than 2 percent of GDP. A follow-up standby arrangement was agreed with the IMF in July 1984 and is currently being implemented, although with increasing difficulty due to recent declines in the copper price (para. 4). Maturities due to Paris Club msmbers in 1984 have been rescheduled as part of the current IMF program. 14. In terms of improving conditions for longer-term growth, the most significant of the above financial measures was no doubt the exchange rate adjustments. Other recent measures with significant long-term impact are real increases in producer prices for agricultural crops, freer marketing arrangements for the livestock sector and complete decontrol of most  5- industrial prices. Over the last three years, producer prices for most agricultural crops have been increased considerably in real terms. This has already led to a significant increase in the area under cultivation. If it had not been for the severe droughts in the region in the last two years, this would have led to,substantial increases in production. In a further attempt to allow market forces to play a more important role in the economy, the Government abolished, in December 1982, the control of all industrial prices (except for three essential commodities: wheat flour, maize flour and candles). Since then, prices for a wide range of commodities have increased, thereby helping to restrain domestic demand, while increasing the profitability of firms. 15. As part of its economic recovery plans, the Government presented a three-year expenditure program to the Consultative Group for Zambia in May 1984. The Consultative Group strongly endorsed the Government's new policy initiatives, as well as its expenditure program which emphasizes rehabilitation of existing infrastructure, increased capacity utilization and selected investments to diversify the economy, especially in agriculture. As a result, the Group indicated that its members are prepared to increase their assistance to Zambia. In addition, various members indicated that in view of Zambia's serious financial position, they are converting their assistance programs to a grant basis and are prepared to make assistance available in the form of quickly disbursing loans and grants. 16. The Government and the Bank continue to cooperate in the further development of policies and measures that would lead to diversification of production and exports. In the foreseeable future, this may lead to sector lending for industry and agriculture by which the Government and the Bank are expected to agree on further actions of economic reform, covering such subjects as tariff policies, export incentives, investment criteria, criteria for setting agricultural producer prices, agricultural research and extension services, and improvements in the management of public enterprises. Creditworthiness 17. Over the past two years the Government has taken important measures towards financial stabilization and implementing a program of economic restructuring. More needs to be done, but there are encouraging signs that the Government is willing and capable to take further appropriate action. There is, however, reason for considerable concern about Zambia's capacity to service new loans on conventional terms. At -today's copper prices, scheduled service on existing external debt will remain at about 40 percent of export earnings for the next three years. In addition, considerable payments are due to the IMF, and it would be desireable to reduce Zambia's pipeline of commercial payment arrears and short-term borrowings. Even with an expected increase in the price of copper, Zambia will continue to experience grave difficulties in meeting its debt-service obligations. The medium-term liquidity problems can only be overcome if the Government for a number of years continues its financial stabilization policies in cooperation with the IMF, continues to seek relief through further debt rescheduling, and, in addition, obtains a significant increase in the proportion of non-project lending available  -6- from external sources. In the meantime, the Government should avoid as much as possible borrowing on commercial terms. For some time to come, additional borrowing should carry sufficiently long grace periods and maturities. 18. In the longer term, the restoration of Zambia's creditworthiness depends on the vigor with which the Government continues to pursue its economic restructuring policies. The Government has made a promising start and is fully committed to take the necessary further steps towards economic reform. In these circumstances, we consider the country creditworthy for limited amounts of non-concessionary borrowing. Assuming successful economic policies, careful financial management and an improving world economy, Zambia's debt service ratio could decline to about 20 percent in ten to twelve years. PART II. BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN ZAMBIA 19. Since 1956, the Bank Group has made 28 loans and 11 credits to Zambia, totalling about U$730 million (net of cancellations). Two additional Bank loans were -made to Zambia and Zimbabwe jointly to finance shared power facilities on the Zambezi River. Fourteen loans and five credits have financed energy, transportation, communications and rural water supply projects. Four loans and one credit for education have helped expand Zambia's secondary and higher education systems, teacher training, and commercial, agricultural and technical education systems. Two program loans have helped Zambia maintain its development program in periods of severe economic dislocation. In agriculture and forestry, six loans and four credits have been for-industrial forest plantations, livestock, commercial crops, integrated family farming, coffee production and smallholder dairy development. Agricultural projects in the Eastern and Southern Provinces are assisting smallholder farmers. Other loans have assisted Zambia's urban development program, copper mining and, through the Development of Bank of Zambia, its manufacturing, agricultural and industrial sectors. A technical assistance credit is helping the Government improve its planning and project preparation. 20. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has invested about US$67 million in nine projects in Zambia since 1972. Two investments were in shoe manufacturing, two in a packaging materials plant, and one each in the Deyelopment Bank of Zambia, cobalt production, textiles and copper production. The latest IFC investment was approved by the Executive Directors on Hay 31, 1983. This investment (US$18.7 million equivalent, of which US$7.5 million is for IFC's own account) is helping to finance an expansion and rehabilitation of the Inter-Continental Hotel in Lusaka and rehabilitation of the Musi-o-Tunya Hotel in Livingstone. 21. The implementation of Bank-assisted projects in Zambia has deteriorated significantly in recent years, and serious delays have been experienced in the execution of a number of these projects. There are several reasons for this, the main one being the lack of budgetary resources with which to finance local counterpart expenditures and to prefinance local expenditures which are subsequently to be reimbursed by  -7- the Bank loan. Most seriously affected have been the Bank's agricultural projects for which funds, although budgeted, have not been released to the executing agencies for several months. Other reasons for the lagging implementation of projects are ineffective project management and inadequate inter-agency coordination. The Bank-assisted agricultural projects, which require careful management and effective coordination due to their complex design, have suffered from these problems, as has the Third Highway Project. 22. The deterioration of project implementation has, as expected, substantially reduced the rate of disbursements on Bank Group loans and credits. During the first four years of the period FY77-81, the disbursement rate on loans and credits to Zambia averaged slightly over 25 percent per annum, higher than the Bankwide average of 21.2 percent, or the 21.5 percent average for the Eastern Africa Region, and well above the 22.2 percent for Tanzania, 23.4 percent for-Senegal and 20.2 percent for Bolivia. In FY81, however, the rate dropped to just over 16 percent, compared with 20.7 percent Bankwide, 16.5 percent for Eastern Africa, 23.6 percent for Tanzania, 20.8 percent for Senegal and 21.2 percent for Bolivia. The rate has risen since FY81, reaching 20.1 percent in FY83, which was slightly below the average for the Eastern Africa Region (20.7 percent) and for the Bank overall (20.8 percent). To alleviate tha problem, provision is being made for technical assistance in projects to strengthen implementing agencies and increased use of the Resident Mission in monitoring project execution. Revolving funds are being established under new and ongoing projects which should ease the Government's financial burden and accelerate disbursements. The Bank or IDA makes advance deposits into these funds to eliminate the need for prefinancing by the Government of local expenditures financed by the Bank/IDA. In addition, estimates of counterpart funds required and when the funds should be made available are being prepared by Bank/IDA staff well in advance of their need to allow implementing agencies as much lead time as possible to plan for these expenditures. As of December 1983, IBRD loans disbursed and outstanding were about 12 percent of Zambia's total medium and long-term debt disbursed and outstanding. 23. The Bank Group expects to continue supporting government programs to reduce dependence on copper, reduce the energy import bill, narrow the urban-rural income gap and improve managerial and technical skills. Anticipated lending reflects the Government's emphasis on directly productive sectors, particularly agriculture-related activities. Continued assistance to education, transportation and industry is also contemplated. PART III - THE FISHERIES SUB-SECTOR General Background 24. Fish Resources. Zambia has substantial fish resources, mainly in Lakes Tanganyika, Mweru Wa-Ntipa, MKeru Luapula, Bangweulu, Kariba and in the Kafue River and its Flood Plains, Lukanga Swamps and upper Zambezi River. Fish production in these areas averaged 53,000 tons during 1975-81. While the maximum sustainable yield from these areas has yet to be determined accurately, studies carried out to date indicate that the safe production limit is about 75,000 tons per annum. The fish resources  - 8 - consist mainly of -Kapenta- (a sardine-like fish found in"Lakes Tanganyika and KaribO) and several varieties of table fish. Nearly all fisb-producing areas are at considerable distance from the main markets of Lusaka and the Copperbelt. With few exceptions, access to fishing villages and camps is difficult. The proposed project aims to develop areas with potential to increase production that are relatively more accessiole, i.e., Lakes Tanganyika, Nweru Wa-Ntipa. Mweru Luapula and Kariba. 25. The Fishing Industry. Fishing in Zambia is carried out by two distinct groups: industrial/commercial operators and traditional (artisanal) fishermen. In recent years, over 90 percent of fish production has come from about 21,000 artisanal fishermen and the remainder from about 50 industrial or semi-industrial producers. The traditional fishermen generally cperate at night, using dug-out canoes and some wooden boats and glass reinforced plastic (GRP) boats of which a small number are motorized. Most of these fishermen operate only close to the shore and as a result substantial parts of most fishing areas are underexploiced. 26. Fish Marketing and Consumption. Although fresh fish is generally preferred to dried fish, only a small quantity of marketed fish is consumed fresh because of lack of adequate facilities to preserve and transport fresh fish from remote producing regions to major consumption areas. As a result, cured fish (sun/smoke-dried) accounts for about 65 percent of total consumption. The fish trade is largely in the hands of private traders. Generally, marketing chains are short, there being at most a- wholesaler and a retailer between producer and consumlr. At Mweru Va-Ntipa and Mweru Luapula, which are the principal sources of fresh fish supplies to the Ccpperbelt, collection and marketing facilities are severely lacking. These deficiencies result in consiaerable uncertainty in fish marketing and lead to substantial product losses. 27. Fish is an important source of animal protein for the majority of the low income population in Zambia which has a per capita consumption of about 10 kg of fresh f'sh equivalent, down from a peak of 17 kg reported by FAO in 1971/72. The decline is due to reduced fish imports because of a shortage of foreign exchange resources and stagnation in domestic production due to past unremunerative prices imposed by the Government on domestic production until early 1983 when price controls were removed. Thus, there is great potential for increasing consumption, particularly of fresh fish. Based on population growth, demand for fish in 1990 is projected to be about 74,000 per annum, or a 40 percent increase on the current consumption level. About two-thirds of the increase, mostly of fresh fish, would be generated in the urban areas. Fisheries Services 28. The Department of Fisheries. Governmen; policy and services in the fisheries sub-sector are the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development (HAWD) through the Department of Fisheries (DOF). DOF is divided into four divisions; research which assesses fish stock through monitoring of the catch in five lakes; fish culture, conducted on a pilot scale, with the assistance of FAO using 15 demonstration farms, to encourage local residents to undertake similar activities on a comercial basts; extension and develop ent, which  - 9 - encourages increased production through promotion of more efficient gear and fishing methods, using fishery scouts for grass-root contacts with the fishermen; and fisheries training centers, established in five key fishing areas where short-term courses are conducted for a limited number of fishermen and fish scouts. As a service to fishermen, DOF operates several small workshops to repair and service engines and boats. 29. In recent years, most of DOF's activities have been curtailed because of lack of operating funds. Government budget allocations for the past several years have been inadequate for the department to perform its functions satisfactorily. Field staff are unable to travel to fishing centers, even when vehicles are available, due to lack of fuel; equipment has remained idle due to a shortage of spare parts; and training programs bave been curtailed/cancelled for lack of operating funds. Therefore, an effective development of the sub-sector requires a stiiulatiom of :)OF's activities through adequate funding. 30. Fisheries Development Authority. For sometime the Government bas been considering establishing a parastatal - the Fisheries Development Authority - to replace the Department of Fisheries. IDA does not consider the establishment of a parastatal necessary. The Government has agreed to consult IDA before establishing any new institution in the sub-sector and allowing such institution to engage in commercial fishing activities (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 4.05). 31. Boat Building. Wooden boats are built by local carpenters. Generally, boats are of local design, but most carpenters bave the capability of building from sophisticated drawings provided to them. GRP boats are constructed in two boatyards which have a combined capacity of about 500 units per annum. In recent years, due to the lack of foreign exchange for imported raw materials, the boatyards have operated below capacity. The majority of hulls produced by the boatyards are of the banana boat- series. Because GRP boats are lighter than wooden boats, they can be propelled by a smeller engine at substantial fuel savings. Thus, GRP boats, despite higher capital costs, are cheaper to operate than wooden boats. However, this advantage is largely negated by lack of maintenance facilities. In addition to wooden and GRP boats, pontoon rigs, used on Lake Kariba, are also manufactured locally. 32. Outboard Engines. Most Zambian powered fishinz boats use imported outboard engines of between 3 and 25 HP. The average life of an engine in Zambia is about 4 years, but can be increased substantially if proper -are and maintenance is provided. In recent years, foreign exchange constraints have resulted in a shortage of some types of engines and spare parts. 33. Fishing Nets. There is only one enterprise in Zambia - Nkwazi Manufacturing Company - which manufactures fishing nets and has traditionally met the total requirements of artisanal fishermen. However, recently, it has operated below capacity due to lack of foreign exchange to import raw materials and essential machinery spares. The company is a well-managed subsidiary of a foreign company with participation by local shareholders.  - 10 - 34. Agricultural Credit. Institutional credit to the agricultural sector is provided largely 'by six commercial banks and several parastatal organizations. The latter include the Agricultural Finance Company (AFC). the Cattle Finance Company (CFC), the Development Bank of Zambia (DBZ), and the Zambia Agricultural Development Bank (ZADB). Cooperatives also provide credit, largely as on-lenders of AFC funds. Credit unions have been formed in some areas, but as yet are not a major source of financing. Activities -- of the major institutional lenders are closely linked with the input supply and marketing functions of the National Agriculture Marketing Board (NAMB) and provincial cooperative unions. The Zambia Agricultural Development Bank 35. The Zambia Agricultural Development Bank (ZADB) was established by an act of Parliament in 1979 to become the principal agricultural lending institution in the country and eventually to replace AFC (currently the main source of credit to crop farmers, especially smallholders) and CFC. AFC is being phased out for several reasons, including: (a) over 90 percent of its operations are financially unviable and it is heavily subsidized by Government; and {b) it has no legal authority to raise funds and thus, is totally dependent on government funding and/or guarantees. CFC's absorption into ZADB is intended to avoid duplication of credit services and also broaden the base for credit for livestock development. To ensure an orderly phase-out of AFC and CFC, the Government has requested IDA to finance consultants' services to draw up a program of action. IDA has agreed to finance the consultants' services under the Bank-assisted Eastern Province Agricultural Development Project (Ln. 2001-ZA) and the study has sLarted. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the results of the study would be submitted to IDA by May 31, 1985 for review and commpnts (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 4.03). ZADB, which became operational in late 1983, is receiving technical assistance and some operating funds under the Eastern Province Agricultural Development Project and the Southern Province Agricultural Development Project (Cr. 1193-ZA). Support for ZADB is also envisaged under other Bank Group lending for agriculture currently under consideration. 36. Capitalization. ZADB has an authorized sbare capital of K 75 million, of which 51 percent is to be subscribed by the Government and the balance by international and local financial institutions. The Government has not yet completed its share subscription primarily because of budgetary constraints. As a result, in 1983, ZADB had to raise bridging finance of X 10 million - guaranteed by Government - in order to become operational. The Government has paid in K 4 million in 1984, and plans to complete its subscription by December 31, 1987 (subscribing K 16 million in 1985, K 10 million in 1986 and K 6.7 million in 1987) by which time ZADB's capital is expected to be fully subscribed. Assurances to this effect were obtained at negotiations (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 4.02).Many financial institutions in Zambia are interested in investing in ZADB's shares and bonds which would partly offset short-term shortfalls in Government financing. 37. Staffing. ZADB does not yet have a full staff complement, but is making good progress in recruiting new staff and does not anticipate much difficulty in recruiting suitably qualified personnel to meet its staffing needs, except at higher management levels. Three internationally-recruited  - 11 - staff have been appointed under the Eastern Province Agricultural Development Project (para. 39) to head ZADB's operations, finance and planning, and training departments. These specialists will be supplemented by an internationally-recruited fisheries credit specialist under the proposed project (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.02). 38. Operating and Financial Position. ZADB plans to increase its lending from about US$0.8 million at the beginning of 1984 to about US$54 million by the end of 1987. The planned lending program assumes that ZADB will expand its operations at a cautious pace and will not be under any pressure to replace AFC and CFC prematurely. In the ent that the consultants recommend a faster phase-out of AFC and CFC (para. 39), these projections would be revised after taking into consideration resources available to ZADB. 39. ZADB is empowered to raise funds from any appropriate source to finance its operations. Therefore, it is not expected to depend on government subventions (except for equity capital). Safeguards would be provided under the project to ensure that ZADB develops into a viable financial institution. To achieve this, ZADB plans to maintain a low debt/equity ratio until its operations expand sufficiently to justify larger amounts of loan capital. Accordingly, its financial projections indicate that, by the end of 1987, capital and reserves would provide about 77 percent of its financial resources, or a debt/equity ratio of less than 1:3 which ZADB would be required to umintain until its share capital is fully subscribed (draft Project Agreement, Section 4.03). Assurances were also obtained that ZADB's lending rates would not be lower than the maximum rate allowed on agricultural lending in Zambia (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.10(a)). Bank Strategy in Agriculture 40. The proposed project would be the Bank Group's first operation in fisheries in Zambia and the tenth in agriculture and forestry. The Bank's agricultural strategy in aims at of facilitating key policy and institutional reforms to create an environment conducive to investment and growth. The Bank has been working with the Government to formulate strategies and programs for economic diversification (reduced reliance on copper mining) and improved agricultural growth in the country. The Bank's lending strategy emphasizes investment in agricultural services (research and extension), agricultural credit and agro-based industrial development to increase production and productivity in the sector. In addition to the proposed project, the Bank has identified a number of priority investments to help achieve the above objections. These include an Agricultural Rehabilitation Project, a Research and Extension Project, a second Coffee Development Project, and an Agricultural Credit Project. The proposed project, therefore, would complement ongoing and planned activities in crop agriculture.  - 12 - PART IV - THE PROJECT 41. The proposed project was identified In 1979 by an FAO/CP mission and appraised in April/May 1983. Post-appraisal of ZADB was carried out in January/February 1984. Negotiations took place in Washington, D.C., from August 9 to August 10, 1984. The Zambian delegation was led by Mr. Mukutu, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development. The long time lapse since project appraisal resulted from the need to resolve critical sectoral and project institutional issues before Board presentation. Annex III provides supplementary project data. Project Objectives 42. The main objectives of the proposed project are: (i) to increase fish supplies in support of the overall strategy of improving agricultural growth and nutrition levels; and (ii) to strengtben two key institutions (ZADB and DOF). The project would support the Government's efforts to increase fish production and productivity through assistance to private fishermen to upgrade their fishing operations and private entrepreneurs to establish marketing facilities. This effort is expected to result in increased fish supplies and improved incomes and living standards of artisanal fishermen. Project support to ZADB during its development is crucial to ensure that it develops into a well-mnaged and financially sound agricultural lending institution. Assistance to DOF would improve its capability to assess the country's fish resources on which future management and investment strategy can be based. Project Description 43. Specifically, the project would, over five years, provide: i) credit for boats, engines, nets, and collection and marketing facilities; (ii) foreign exchange for raw materials and machinery and spares for fishing net manufacture; (iii) technical assistance for institutional development building and forproject coordination, monitoring and evaluation; Detailed Features 44. Credit to Artisanal Fishermen. Credit in kind, for up to 4 years, would be provided for plank/GRP boats, engines and nets to creditworthy fishermen operating in Lakes Tanganyika, Hweru Wa-Ntipa and Mveru Luapula.Credit for nets would be repaid in one year from the proceeds of fish sales which borrowers would be required to deposit in savings accounts in commercial bank branches in areas where ZADB does not yet have its own branches. Fishermen would contribute 20 percent of the required investment for boats and engines. It is considered that credit recipients  - 13 - would afford this level of contribution since only creditworthy fishermen, with good past performance and potential to increase production, would obtain credit under the project. 45. Credit to Commercial Fishermen. Credit for up to 5 years would be provided to fishermen on Lake Kariba to purchase transport boats to enable them to use their fishing craft exclusively for fishing. Credit for transport boats would be available to fishermen who have a minimum of three fishing rigs in operation. Borrowers would be required to contribute 20 percent of the value of investment. General Line of Credit 46. The amount of funds for specific fish production facilities provided under the project (paras. 44 and 45) is modest. Credit to fishermen for production purposes is intended to be a pilot scheme based on conservative assumptions on available fish resources and ZADB's ability to manage effectively the credit program. If, however, the stock assessment studies provided under the project indicate a more promising resource position, and ZADB proves to be a capable credit institution, additional funds (US$0.25 million) are provided under the project to supplement the funds allocated for production activities. The use of these funds would be subject to prior agreement with IDA. Should these funds be not required for additional credit for fish production, consideration would be given to using the provision to increase the assistance to the fishing net manufacturing company (para. 49). 47. Credit for Collection and Marketing Facilities. Loans for a period of 5 years would be given to individuals and/or private sector companies to establish integrated fish collection and marketing facilities at Lakes Mweru Wa-Ntipa and Mweru Luapula and an ice plant at Kafue. The items to be financed would include monitorized boats, freezing units, cold starage, ice plants, refrigerated transport equipment, generators and civil works. Loans would cover 80 percent of the cost of these items and the balance would be provided by the borrowers. 48. Technical Assistance to ZADB. To assist ZADB during its development phase and to ensure adequate management of fisheries loans, the project would finance 36 staff-months of an internationally-recruited fisheries credit specialist. The appointment of the specialist, with qualifications and experience and on terms and conditions satisfactory to IDA, would be a condition of credit effectiveness (draft teveiopment Credit Agreement, Section 6.01(b)). 49. Foreign Exchange Assistance for Raw Materials and Spares. Foreign exchange assistance, totalling about US$1.0 million would be provided to the fishing net manufacturing company - Nkwazi Manufacturing Company - through the Bank of Zambia against payments in local currency. The funds would cover 20 percent of the company's foreign exchange requirements for imported materials and spares over a five-year period. The balance of the foreign exchange requirements would be obtained through normal government channels.  - 14 - 50. Facilities for DOF. To improve DOF's capacity to manage the country's fish resources effectively, funds would be provided to rehabilitate and upgrade some of the existing water transport equipment and workshops, and to purchase new water and land transport, research and communicatior.s equipment, and a generator. To ensure continued use of the rehabilitated and new facilities, essential spares and some operating expenditures would be financed. To ensure adequate funding of DOF,s activities, the Government each year would prepare for IDA's review and comments the department's work program and budget for the following year and make budgetary allocation for carrying out the program (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.06). 51. Technical Assistance and Training for DOF. Assistance would be provided to DOF in assessing the country"s fish resources, introducing improved fishing methods, research and extension and staff training. Funds would be provided to finance internationally-recruited staff to positions of stock assessment officer and limnologist (36 staff-months each), master fisherman (24 staff-months) and short-term consultants (12 staff-months), with qualifications and experience, and on terms and conditions satisfactory to IDA (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.03). In addition, funds would be provided under the project to finance training fellowships for senior and middle-level staff and artisanal fishermen. Project Costs and Financing 52. Total project costs, including contingencies, based on mid-1984 prices, are estimated at USS10.6 million (including taxes and duties of USS1.1 million), of which USS8.0 million in foreign exchange. Physical contingencies of 10 percent have been included on selected items considered to present some risk of quantitative underestimation. Price contingencies allow for 20 percent in 1984, 12 percent in 1985 and 10 percent thereafter on local costs; and 3.5 percent in 1984, 8 percent in 1985, 9 percent in 1986-88 and 7.5 percent thereafter of foreign exchange costs. The IDA credit of USS7.1 million would finance 90 percent of the foreign exchange costs and 75 percent of total project costs, excluding taxes and duties. The Government's contribution (USS2.4 million equivalent) and sub-borrowers' contribution (USS1.1 million equivalent) would cover the remaining costs. The Government would ensure timely allocation of foreign exchange for raw material and machinery spares for net manufacturing and outboard engines. Project costs are summarized in the Credit and Project Summary. 53. Of the credit proceeds, USS2.8 million equivalent, for fish production and marketing facilities, would be passed tc: ZADB as equity capital and USS0.3 million as a grant to finance technical assistance. The execution of a financing agreement between Government and ZADB would be a condition of credit effectiveness (draft Development Credit Agreeoent, Section 6.01(a)). In order to provide a continuing source of credit for fish production and marketing, ZADB would establish and operate a revolving fund into which credit repayments would be paid. USS1.0 million of the credit would be made available to the fishing net manufacturing firm, through the Bank of Zambia, to finance part of its foreign exchange requirements for raw materials and machinery spare parts imports (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.01(e)). The foreign exchange would  - 15 - be provided against payments of equivalent amounts in local currency. Of the balance of the credit, US$2.6 million would be retained by Government to finance technical assistance and training (US$1.2 million) and facilities (US1.0 million) for the Department of Fisheries, and project coordination, monitoring and evaluation (US$0.4 million) by the Project Coordination Unit. US$ 0.4 million of the credit would cover physical and price contingencies. Project Implementation 54. The Project Coordination Unit (PCU,#, to be established in the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development, would have overall responsibility for project implementation (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.02). Funds would be provided under the project to finance 36 staff-months of an internationally-recruited project coordinator whose appointment would be a condition of credit effectiveness (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 6.01(b)). The credit component would be implemented by ZADB (paras. 48-51). DOF would procure and utilize the facilities and technical assistance provided to improve its management of fish resources. Interest Rates 55. ZADB would charge its borrowers the maximum rate of interest allowed on agricultural lending, currently 15 percent per annum, plus a two percent commitment fee and two percent loan processing fee. This compares with the current inflation rate of 20 percent per annum. However, as the domestic inflation rate is projected to be 2 percent in 1985 and 10 percent thereafter, ZADB's interest rates are expected to be positive in real terms during most of the project period. ZADB would review its lending rates annually in consultation with IDA and adjust them, as necessary, to ensure its profitability (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.12). Monitoring and Evaluation 56. Monitoring and evaluation of project implementation would be carried out by PCU with the assistance of ZADB and DOF. Short-term consultants would be engaged to assist PCU in this task. Procurement 57. The relatively small, varied and individual orders for boats, engines and nets (totalling about US$1.4 million) would not be suitable for international competitive bidding (ICB). Individual borrowers would place orders for these items with local suppliers through ZADB. Contracts for civil works (totalling about US$0.7 million) would be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding (LCB). Plant, machinery and equipment for collection/marketing centers, vehicles, and raw materials and machinery spares for net manufacturing would be bulked as far as practicable and orders of US$50,000 and above would be procured through ICB and domestic manufacturers would be granted a mFrgin of 15 percent, or the applicable rate of duty, whichever is less. Contracts of less than US$50,000 would be awarded on the basis of LCB, except that those below $20,000 may be procured through local shopping after obtaining at least three quotations. Procurement arrangements are summarized below.  - 16 - Project Element Procurement Method ICB LCB Other Cost Civil works 0.7 0.7 (0.4) (0.4) Plant, machinery and equipment for collection/marketing 2.5 2.5 (1.5) (1.5) Boats, engines and nets 1.4 1.4 (0.7) (0.7) Vehicles 0.2 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) Raw materials and spares for net manufacturing 1.2 1.2 (1.0) (1.0) Facilities for DOF 2.0 2.0 (1.1) (1.1) Technical assistance and training 2.6 2.6 (2.2) (2.2) 3.9 0.7 6.0 10.6 (2.7) (0.4) (4.0) (7.1) Note: Figures in parenthesis are the respective amounts financed by IDA.  - 17 - Disbursements 58. Credit disbursements would be on the following basis: (a) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 50 percent of local expenditures for equipment for DOF; (b) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 90 percent of local expenditures for Imported raw materials and machinery spares for net manufacturing; (c) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 90 percent of local expenditures for consultants" services for DOF and for project coordination, monitoring and evaluation; (d) 100 percent of foreiga expenditures for consultants' services for ZADB; (e) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 60 percent of local expenditures for training; (f) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 60 percent of local expenditures under sub-loans for fish production and marketing facilities. Disbursements for contracts of less than US$10,000 equivalent and for local expenditures under (b), (d), (e) and (f) would be on the basis of statements of expenditure certified by the Managing Director of ZADB, Director of Fisheries and the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development, as the case may be. All other disbursements would be fully documented. The five and one half-year disbursement schedule for the proposed credit is shorter than the nine-year regional profile for fisheries and forestry projects. The proposed schedule is considered appropriate because a substantial portioa of the credit would be used to finance a few loans and technical assistance, both with short disbursement periods. 59. Special Accounts. In order to ensure that credit funds for the project would be available when required, two Special Accounts in Kwacha would be established in the Bank of Zambia financed with advances from the credit proceeds (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 2.02 and Schedule 4). One account, with an initial deposit of US$200,000 equivalent, to finance consultants' services and fish production and marketing credits, would be operated by ZADB. The other account, also with an initial deposit of US$200,000 equivalent, to finance facilities and consultants' services for strengthening DOF's operations, would be operated by DOF. The accounts would be replenished on the basis of documentary evidence, to be provided to IDA by ZADB and DOF, of payments made from the accounts for eligible expenditures. The opening of the accounts would be a condition of credit effectiveness (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 6.01(c)).  - 18 - Audit and Accounts 60. ZADB's accounts are at present audited by the Lusaka Office of Peat, Marwick Mitchell and Co., who are satisfactory to IDA and those of the Ministry of Agriculture (including DOF) are audited by the Auditor-General. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that ZADB would continue to appoint independent auditors acceptable to IDA and that the audited accounts and auditors' reports would be submitted to the Association within six months of the end of ZADB's and DOF's fiscal years. The auditors of ZADB, DOF and PCU would be required to make specific reference in their reports to the reviews of documents supporting the statements of expenditure and certify that the documents are in accordance with the terms and conditions of the credit. Environmental Impact 61. The only potentially adverse environmental effect of the project is the possibility of over-fishing and depletion of fish stocks, and also the risk of deforestation through excessive tree felling for fish smoking. The former risk is very low since the incremental fish quantities are modest and within estimates of safe sustainable yields. The latter risk is also low since the increase in sun and/or smoked dried fish would be only about 15 percent. Benefits and Risks 62. The project is part of the Government's strategy of diversifying the economy. It would increase domestic fish supplies, reduce imports and increase personal incomes and employment in rural areas. Fish supplies would increase by about 7,000 tons (10 percent) over the present level to maintain consumption at about 10 kg which would fall to about 9 kg per capita without the project. The project would directly benefit about 1,200 artisanal owner-fishermen and -bout 2,300 'helpers' whose average family incomes would increase from E t K 1,400 to K 2,800 over the project period. By focussing its supp t on the private sector, the project would limit inefficient, uncompetitive and financially unviable investments in commercial ventures by public sector enterprises. Financial and technical assistance to ZADB during its early development phase would strengthen it and promote its development into a viable credit institution. Support for DOF is expected to result in improved fish stock management and provide a basis for future deveiopment and investment decisions. The project's economic rate of return is estimated at 26 percent. 63. Major project risks relate to the probability that ZADB may not develop into a viable credit institution if the Government fails to capitalize it adequately and that DOF may not be provided with adequate funding for its operations. To minimize these risks, Government has undertaken to complete its subscription to ZADB's equity capital by the end of 1987 (para. 36). In addition, technical assistance is provided under other Bank Group-assisted projects (para. 35), in addition to that proposed under this project, to strengthen ZADB's institutional capability. Regarding funding for DOF's operations, Government has agreed to ensure adequate budgetary allocations to DOF for its operating expenses.  - 19 - PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 64. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Zambia and the Association, the draft Project Agreement between the Association and Zambia Agricultural Development Bank and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed separately. 65. Special conditions of the credit are listed in Section III of Annex III. Special conditions of effectiveness would be: (a) the appointment of a fisheries credit specialist (para. 48) and a project coordinator (para. 54); (b) execution of a financing agreement between the Government and ZADB (para. 53); and (c) the establishment of special accounts (para. 59). 66. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. 67. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. A.W. Clausen President by E. Stern Attachments Washington, D.C. November 2, 1984  - 20 - AINEX I TA5LE i Page 1 of 5 ZAMBIA - SCIAL ItDICATORS DATA SHEET ZAMISA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGlD AVERAGES) Ia HOST (WRST RECENT ESTIMATE) /b rteitk j9CtYT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE ITCOW tmLb 197^ ESTIKATEI_ AFEICA S. OF SAHRA . FRICA 4 MID EAST etA (TBSAw SQ. W) roat. 75S.6 752.6 752.b ACEt;jLTERAL 397.4 399.5 401.b OP M CAPITA (0f3) 230.0 380.0 b40.0 1112.9 1149.b Eahst wusapnau "a CaPI (ILoCRA'Sb tjF oIL Eq.ICALLbT) .. 301.0 443.0 529.0 b22.1 POPIATION -m VITAL STATISS POPULATION.XID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 3207.0 4159.0 6045.0 LRBA% POPL'ATIOM (:E O TOTAL) 23.1 30-0 44.B 29.7 48.2 POPLLATION PROJECTIONS POPLLATIO IS TEAR 2000 (MILL) 11.4 STATIOSARY POPULATION (KILL) 37.0 POPULATION 4&aIENr'. 2.0 PuPULAT ION DENSI PER S.Q. Ct. 4.3 5.5 7.8 55.3 36.1 PER MQ. OM. AI. LAND 8.1 10.4 14.5 111.5 461.7 POPULATION AGE STRVCTLIE (E) 0-;; YIRS 45.0 46.1 57.4 55.4 43.6 L5-54 YRS 52.5 51.4 50.0 51.7 53-1 aS AND AOE 2.5 2.5 Z.6 2.9 3_1 POPULATIOTN GROWM itATE (I) 'OTAL 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.8 CRUBA 5.3 5.2 6.5 5.2 4.5 CRt'DE BIRTH RATE (PER THOS) 50.h 19.6 49.5 47.0 40.4 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER IHoDS) 24.4 20.1 15.5 15.2 11.5 -;ROSS REPRODUCTIOS RATE 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 Z.8 FAMIILY PLASSISC ACcEPIoNS. 4UAL (TNOLS) .. .. - LSERS (Z OF MARRIED "IEN) .. .. -- 22. INDEX OF .11D PROD. PER CAPITA ( 1969-71-100) 79.0 96.0 67.0 91.b 97.3 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (t OF REQUIREMEST') 87.0 87.0 93.0 98.2 110.8 PROTEISS (GRAMS PER DAY) 58.0 58.0 56.0 56.7 70.1 OF WICH AOIMAL AND PLLSE 14.0 16.0 14.0 IC 17.0 17.8 CHILD (AGES 1-4) DEATH RATE 38.0 29.0 20.0 18.7 14.0 LIFE EXPECT. AT BIRTH (YEARS) 39.7 44.6 50.9 51.7 57.5 INFANT MORT. RArE (PER TrOUS) 1b4.0 137.0 105.0 102.7 101.5 ACCESS re SaFE W'ATER (-PuP) TOTAL .. 37.0 42.0 /d 35.6 59.7 R - A .. 70.0 86.0 71' 54.1 84.5 RURAL -- 22.0 6b.0 7;1 Z7.3 36.4 ACcEsS TO EACRFTA DISPOSaL (: OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 16.0 42.0 Id URBAN .. 12.0 67.o 7d. RUaL. .. 18.0 16.o 7.. POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 9540.0 6140.0 7670.0 /a 11948.3 4145.1 POP. PER