Uganda - Agricultural Development Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OMFCIAL USE ONLY Rpet No. P-3912-UG REPORT AND RECO-MENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT IN ALN AMOUNT OF SDR 10.0 MILLION THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FOR AN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT December 11, 1984 ThIs doecumnt bus a restricted distributi.. and may be used by recipuents only in the prfmo,mac of dher i,UmdI duties Us antent may not otherwise be Adisdmd without World Bank authorizatim..  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of November 1984) Currency unit - Uganda shilling (USh) USh 1.00 - USS 0.003 UJS$ 1.00 - US 500 /1 USS 1.00 - SDR 1.00- ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ARP - Agricultural Reconstruction Program CBPP - Comtagious Bovine Pleuro-Pneunia EAC - East African Comunity EEC - European Economic Comunities GDP - Gross Domestic Product GNP - Gross National Product ICA - International Coffee Agreement ICB - Internattonal Competitive Bidding IFAD - International Fund for Agricultural Development IMF - International Monetary Fund LCB - Local Competitive Bidding MAF - Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MAIF - Ministry of Animal Industry and Fisheries MPED - Ministry of Planning and Economic Development OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries T&V - Training and Visit UNDP - United Nations Development Prograume FISCAL YEAR Government July 1 - June 30 /1 From October 1975 to May 1981, the Uganda shilling was tied to the Special Drawing Right (SDR) of the International Monetary Fund (SDR 1.00 - USh 9.66). However, the Uganda shilling was devalued by 902 in June 1981 and has subsequently been floating ln relation to a basket of currencies. From August ;982 to June 1984, the Bank of Ugvarda operated a dual exchange rate system, including a second wind"vi at which foreign exchange was traded more freely. The first and seccind window rates merged in June 1984. An exchange rate of USS$ - USh 350 has been used in the calculations for the proposed project.  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UGANDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECr Credit and Project Summary Borrower: The Republic of Uganda. Beneficiaries: Smallholder farmers and fishermen. Amount: SDR 10.0 million (US$10.0 million equivalent). Terms: Standard. Project Description: The project would increase food production and family income in the project area defined as the administra- tive districts of Apac, Culu, Kitgun, Kumi, Lira, Soroti, and Tororo in eastern and northern Uganda and would increase the availability of data to formulate sector development plans. These objectives would be achieved through: (i) the provision of agricultural, livestock, and fisheries inputs, (ii) the strengthening of extension services to advise on input use and technology, and (iii) the provision of support for research and surveys to generate new information for planning and extension. The project would include: (i) the procurement of input supplies and the strengthening of input distribution management, (ii) the provision of civil works, vehicles, equipment, technical assistance, training and operating expenses for research and surveys of fisheries resources, tsetse fly control, and agricultural adaptive research, and (iii) the strengthening of agricultural extersion as well as monitoring and evaluation services. Risks: The main risk is the lack of motivation and commitment of the underpaid staff of the Ministries of Agriculture and Forestry and of Animal Industry and Fisheries. This risk would be addressed by providing adequate transport and other facilities as well as by arranging for regular payment of travel and transport allowances. This domxent has a resuicted distrbuuon and may be used by recpients only in the performnce of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be discdosed without World Bank authorization  Estimated Project- Costs: Component Local Foreign Total -U-- US$ million Input supply 2.7 15.0 17.7 Research and technology .7 1.8 2.5 Institutional development 1.3 2.4 3.7 Base Cost 4.7 19.2 23.9 Contingencies Physical .3 1.1 1.4 w Price 1.6 4.5 6.1 Total Project Cost 6.6 /a 24.8 31.4 /b Financing Plan: Source Local Foreign Total USS million IDA Second Technical Assistance Project credit - .3 .3 IDA Agricultural Development Project loan - 10.0 10.0 IFAD Agricultural Development Project loan - 14.5 14.5 Government of Uganda 6.6 -6. Total 6.6 24.8 31.4 Estimated Disbursements: IDA FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 US$ millio_ Association Annual /c 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.5 Cumulative Ic 1.8 4.0 6.2 8.5 10.0 IFAD Annual - 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 2.4 Cumulative - 2.3 5.4 8.6 12.1 14.5 Total Annual /c 4.1 5.3 5.4 5.8 3.9 Cumulative /c 4.1 9.4 14.8 20.6 24.5 Rate of Return: Not applicable. Staff Appraisal Report: No. 5009-UG, dated December 3, 1984. Maps: IBRD 18035 and 18036 /a Includes taxes and duties of US$1.4 million. /b Includes start-up activities totalling US$410,500, of which US$326,200 to be financed under the Second Technical Assistance Project (Credit 1434-UG of 1984 for US$15.0 million). This project has, as one of its objectives, the support of project preparation activities. /c The amount of US$326,200 will be disbursed from the Second Technical Assistance Project to cover the foreign exchange costs of start-up activities for the present project.  REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO TdE EXECUTrVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FOR AN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. *I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed * development credit to The Republic of Uganda for SDR 10.0 million (US$10.0 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance an agricultural development project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. An economic mission visited Uganda in Kay-June 1983 and its report, entitled -Uganda - Country Economic Memorandum" (Report No. 4733-UG dated December 9, 1983), has been distributed to the Executive Directors. A summary of social and economic data is given in Annex I. Background 3. Uganda achieved independence in 1962 with a number of important advantages: (a) a favorable climate, fertile soils, and rich mineral base for economic development; (b) an established indigenous smallholder sector providing a widening range of export crops and an ample domestic food supply; (c) a small but rapidly growing industrial sector, contributing exports of copper and textiles; (d) a well-developed transport system, including facilities shared with Kenya and Tanzania under the East African Community (EAC); Ce) an exportable surplus of hydroelectricity, with substantial scope for further development on the Victoria Nile; and (f) one of the most advanced education systems in Eastern Africa. The irnitial years after independence clearly demonstrated the economic potential of the country. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.8Z per annum from 1963 to 1970, implying an increase in per capita terms of at least 2% per annum. The country also was able to maintain a reasonable savings rate (averaging 13%), which permitted implementation of an ambitious investment program without mindue pressure on domestic prices or the balance of payments. Although Uganda's export volumes grew slowly, export earnings were more than adequate to cover import requirements and the country maintained a current account surplus in most years. The 1  Government's budgetary position also was sound. Revenue increased faster than recurrent expenditure during the latter half of the 1960s and, together with non-bank domestic borrowing, helped finance a significant proportion of development outlays. 4. However, after the coup in 1971, the situation quickly deterio- rated. Under the military regime, many skilled personnel left the country, the parastatal sector became bloated with the addition of many abandoned or confiscated industries, and professional standards within the administra- tion eroded. On top of these largely self-imposed problems, the Ugandan economy was shaken by a series of external shocks: the sharp rise in petroleum prices after 1973, the breakup of the EAC in 1977, and the damage and looting which occurred during the 1978-79 war. As a result of these developmeents, real GDP stagnated through 1977 and then fell over the next three years. Import levels had to be cut by 50% from 1970 to 1979 due to lower export volumes, worsening terms of trade (except during the coffee boom years of 1977-79), and dwindling aid receipts. The Government's budgetary position also became increasingly untenable as the revenue base was undermined and expenditure control collapsed. The resultant deficit was financed increasingly by bank borrowing, leading to monetary expansion and price inflation (averaging 74Z per annum from 1977 to 1979). Not surprisingly, critical shortages developed and a large share of economic activity was diverted to the pervasive parallel market system called magendo-. Recent Developments 5. By April 1979, when the military regime was overthrown, the Ugandan economy was in ruins. Initial efforts to promote recovery were constralned by an unstable political situation, administrative weaknesses, and a severe shortage of foreign exchange. As a result, many of the adverse trends evident during the 1970s continued through 1980. In partic- ular, real GDP continued to decline while the inflation rate rose above 100% per annum. Then, in mid-1981, the Government made a dramatic break with the past by announcing a major devaluation of the Uganda shilling and related price adjustments. Through a series of financial programs, sup- ported by assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other donors, further policy reforms have been introduced over the past three years (see paragraphs 7-9). As a result, economic performance has shown a marked improvement, despite the negative impact of internal security problems and adverse world economic conditions. The difficult security situation is explained by the disintegration of law and order during the 1970s and the need to discipline the security forces after the 1978-79 war. Although most of the country is now at peace, periodic incidents continue to occur, especially around Kampala, disrupting production and transport activities and diverting budgetary resources to security-related activities. As regards the world economy, although Uganda's terms of trade improved after 1981, the index remains at less than half the peaks achieved during the coffee boom years of 1978-70 and only 65% of the level in 1970. Equally important, Uganda's export earnings are constrained by quotas on coffee sales imposed under the International Coffee Agreement (ICA). Uganda's coffee production substantially exceeds its quota limit, and stocks equivalent to 70Z of quota exports have currently accumulated. The  - 3 - combination of economic recession and tighter fiscal policies in developed countries also has affected the availability of external assistance. For Uganda, aid mobilization has been made particularly difficult by the legacy of international isolation imposed during the 1970s and continuing concern overseas about the security situation. 6. Economic recovery is evident in a number of indicators: (a) Since 1980, GDP has grown on average by 6% per annum. Recovery was initially concentrated in subsistence agriculture, but growth has subsequently been particularly strong in monetary agriculture (12% average annual growth 1982-84). Industry has been slower to recover. (b) Export volumes have risen by an estimated 41% from 1980 to 1983, and would have recovered even more without the coffee quota constraint. This export growth, together with better utilization of aid, has helped to finance a much-needed expansion of import volumes since 1981. (c) Significant budgetary improvements, including the establishment by FY 1982/83 of a healthy recurrent surplus, a major reduction in the dependence of budgetary financing on bank borrowing, and no less than a fiftyfold increase in recurrent revenues since FY 1980/81. These improvements have been absolutely central to bringing down the rate of inflation from over 100% in 1981 to about 30% in 1983. Despite this progress, overall levels of economic activity and trade remain substantially below peak levels achieved in the early 1970s. As a result, per capita Gross National Product (GNP) still is only two-thirds of the 1970 level. The Government's Policies and Programs 7. The Government's primary goal is to restore law and order, a basic prerequisite for future economic progress. Second to this is the goal of rehabilitating the productive sectors. The first step toward rehabilitation was the introduction of the financial program for FY 1981/82, which has been followed by similar programs for FY 1982/83 and FY 1983/84. These programs have been supported by three stand-by arrangements with the IMF (for a total of SDR 320 million), drawings from the First and Second Reconstruction Credits (providing US$145 million after June 1981) made available by the Association, and assistance from other donors. Major actions taken by the Government are summarized below: (a) The official exchange rate was devalued from under USh 8 to USh 78 per US dollar in June 1981, and subsequently steadily depreciated to about USh 500 per US dollar in November 1984. In August 1982, the Government opened a second window  where foreign exchange was more freely traded in an auction system. After the introduction of this dual exchange rate system, the two rates steadily depreciated and the differential between them narrowed. These adjustments led to a substantial reduction in the premium and importance of the uaofficial market for foreign exchange. In June 1984, the two windows were merged and foreign exchange now is made available through a weekly auction, with the rate determined by the marginal bid. (b) The initial devaluation in June 1981 was accompanied by the removal of most price controls. The major exceptions were for producer prices of traditional export crops, retail prices of petroleum products, and utility tariffs. For these controlled items, significant price increases were introduced. Petroleum prices were increased by more than twentyfold after December 1980 to reflect fully the impact of window-one exchange rate changes. Producer price adjustments were more moderate, with increases of about tenfold for most major export crops. However, these increases are still substantially higher than general inflation and net returns from the production of all major export crops are now positive. Producer prices are adjusted on a regular basis to ensure that net returns to the farmer remain positive. Cc) Various measures have been introduced to improve monetary and fiscal discipline. To help control the demand for money and to allocate credit, most interest rates were nearly doubled over the past two years (although they remain negative in real terms). As part of its obligations under the IMF stand-by arrangements, the Government agreed to and met ceilings on the growth c' net domestic credit and net credit to the Government. On the fiscal side, a number of measures were taken in mid-1981 to streamline and improve the elasticity of the taxation structure. Strict control also has been maintained over cash releases to ministries, although this has sometimes been at the cost of underfunding critical functions and accumulating domestic arrears. 8. The Government's original Recovery Program, which included proposals for policy and institutional reform as well as a project-specific a investment plan for FY 1982/83 and FY 1983/84, was presented to the meeting of the Consultative Group in May 1982. All participants at the meeting commended the Government's commitment, as reflected in the Recovery Program, to prioritize rehabilitation activities and to restrict overall resource allocations to realistic levels. Following a progress review, the Government published a Revised Recovery Program in October 1983. This updated document takes account of resource constraints and implementation problems encountered over FY 1983/84 and incorporates FY 1984/85 fully into the investment plan. However, the broad objectives and strategy remain the same, focusing on short-term revival of the productive sectors. Priority in all sectors is given to rehabilitation and improved utilization of  - 5 - existing capacity. Although provision has now been made for preparatory work on a number of new projects, most projects do not involve large expenditures through FY 1984/85 and are essential to maintain momentum in later years. The Revised Recovery Program also includes a number of innovations and changes designed to make it more effective for decision making and to facilitate project implementation. This Program was discussed at a further meeting of the Consultative Group in January 1984, at which participants again welcomed the strategy and priorities as well as the implied level and composition of Uganda's aid requirements for 1984 and 1985 (see paragraph 16). 9. A decisive start in the process of economic recovery has now been made. The basic priority for further action is to strengthen the adminis- trative framework for implementing the Government's programs, for carrying them forward, and for making them more effective. In some cases, strengthening means rebuilding what already existed in the early 1970s; in others, it means developing new instituttons and policies relevant to today's realities. The administrative weaknesses faced by Uganda (and many other Sub-Saharan African countries) are inherently difficult to tackle and progress will he slow. However, the magnitude of the task ahead should not be allowed to undermine the commitment to much-needed economic reforms. The Government has already initiated action in this area. The Report of the Public Service Salaries Review Commission, which covers many issues relating to the organization and operation of the civil service besides salaries, was presented in November 1982 and is still under Government review. The FY 1984/85 budget introduced quantum increase in civil service salaries, although there are indications that the Government is having to borrow excessively from the banking system to finance this salary increase. If inflation is to be kept under control, this development will have to be monitored carefully. To facilitate recovery in the industrial sector, the Government passed the Expropriated Properties Act in February 1983 to provide a legal basis for resolving ownership issues, and initiated a series of financial and accounting studies on major parastatal organizations. Various measures were introduced over the past two years to improve foreign exchange budgeting and import licensing procedures. Finally, the Agricultural Policy Committee has been established to advise the Government on Prices, marketing, and resource allocations for the agricultural sector. The Secretariat of the Committee undertakes on a regular basis an analysis of the production costs of the major export crops, and makes recommendations to the Government on appropriate adjustments to producer prices. Not surprisingly, given the severe erosion of the country's productive base and infrastructure during the 1970s, much remains to be done before Uganda's recovery can be considered complete. However, the Government's Revised Recovery Program and evolving policies are headed in the right direction and merit support from the international community. Sectoral Priorities 10. Economic revival will depend on increasing production levels, especially of exports. This entails the highest priority initially being given to production of export crops, to rehabilitation of supporting transport and communications infrastructure, and to production of basic  - 6 - consumer goods, building materials, and agricultural inputs by the industrial sector. Other sectors, especially the social sectors, also require urgent rehabilitation. But in the near future, rehabilitation of these sectors must be limited to the extent of their potential- contribution to recovery. Improvements in medical services, repair of damaged classrooms, and rehabilitation of hazardous urban water systems, for example, may be expected to provide an important, if unquantifiable, incentive to producers. 11. Agriculture dominates the Ugandan economy, providing the livelihood for about 90% of the population and supplying almost all Uganda's exports in recent years. Ugandan agriculture depends largely on small- and medium- scale peasant farms. No attempt was ever made to encourage expatriate settlements. Even today, large-scale estates are only significant in tea and sugar production. With its favorable natural conditions, Uganda produces an overall food surplus in most years, although areas like Karamoja in the northeast, which are vulnerable to drought and depend on traditional trade of cattle for grain, have suffered periodic food shortages as a result of low rainfall and insecurity. Rehabilitation of agriculture is the top priority for Uganda's economic recovery. Coffee, cotton, tea, and tobacco exports could all continue to grow rapidly over the next three years (although the previous peak levels are not likely to be reached until later in the 1980s and coffee exports will probably remain subject to ICA quota constraints). In addition, scope exists for expanding non-traditional exports (e.g., hides and skins, foodstuffs, and fertilizers) to neighboring countries. Revival of cotton and other agricultural production would also supply some domestic industrial needs. During the rehabilitation phase, the Government has decided to give top priority to improving incentives, including changes in producer prices and in marketing. Closely related is the supply of inputs, implements, spares for processing and transport, and consumer goods to stimulate the production of surpluses. Over the longer term, agricultural services, including research and extension, also will need more attention. 12. Although Uganda's industrial sector has always been relatively small, it did in the past make a valuable contribution towards supplying the domestic market with basic goods and, in some instances (e.g., textiles and copper), produced a surplus for export. However, the sector largely collapsed during the 1970s. Although industrial production began a modest recovery during 1982 and 1983, indications are that this recovery may have halted in 1984, with many enterprises still closed and average capacity utilization of only about 30%. Recovery in the industrial sector has been hampered by a number of constraints. The bulk of the sector has not yet made the investments necessary to put their equipment in Miorking order, due primarily to the shortage of working capital to purchase spare parts and equipment, foreign exchange for imported inputs, and locally-available materials. Other constraints, such as unresolved ownership questions, creditworthiness problems of firms, unreliable infrastructure, and poor management also deter recovery in the sertor. The Government has declared its intention to follow a mixed economy" strategy, with only essential public services reserved exclusively for the public sector. In other areas, domestic and foreign private enterprise is encouraged, either wholly owned or in joint ventures with the Government. The Government expects to  close or sell a number of existing industrial enterprises, while the financial viability of the remaining parastatals is to be restored through increased tariffs, asset revaluation, and injections of new capital. Actions initiated by the Government in this area, including the Expropriated Properties Act and a program of financial and accounting studies, were noted in paragraph 9. However, the modalities for restructuring the parastatal sector are still to be worked out fully. 13. Uganda's transport system, formerly one of Africa's best, deteri- orated rapidly during the 1970s for the same general reasons outlined ear- lier: departure of skilled personnel, political interference, and in- adequate provision of resources for essential functions like maintenance. In addition, the breakup of the EAC in 1977 had a serious effect, especially on Uganda's access to international trade routes. As a result, Uganda lost virtually all railway rolling stock and aircraft and her part-ownership of railways and port facilities in Kenya and Tanzania. This necessitated heavy new investments by Uganda and seriously disrupted international traffic movements while increasing their cost. Transport was, moreover, the sector possibly most seriously affected by the war and the widespread subsequent looting. The vehicle fleet, in particular, was decimated. Rehabilitation of the transport system and sector institutions thus becomes a key requirement for economic recovery. 14. The Bank Group recently updated its earlier assessment of Uganda's energy sector. Energy use is primarily based on electricity, petroleum, and woodfuels. At present, Uganda's electric generating capacity is underutilized. However, the surplus could be quickly absorbed as the economy recovers, as substitution is made for more expensive fuels (such as petroleum products), and as long-term export agreements are concluded with neighboring countries. The Government has initiated two studies on the power subsector, one on rehabilitation of the Owen Falls Station and the other on a least-cost power development program. As regards petroleum, the Government has succeeded in reducing the cost of imports in recent years through the impact of higher retail prices on domestic consumption and smuggling as well as the improvements in supply arrangements. Preliminary work to ascertain the extent and economic viability of petroleum resources in the Lake Albert area has also been started, although local oil production remains very much a longer-term and uncertain prospect. Woodfuels are estimated to account for 95% of total energy and 71% of commercial energy consumption in Uganda. Concern is, therefore, mounting that uncontrolled cutting will eventually deplete the most accessible forest resources and lead to further soil erosion. Preparation to undertake a forest inventory is underway, as a precursor to rehabilitating the depleted forests. 15. The Government endorses the goals of the International Drinking, Water Supply and Sanitation Decade and is giving high priority to the water and sewerage sector. The main objective for this sector is to restore basic services through rehabilitation of existing water supply and sewerage facilities. In addition, with the assistance of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Bank Group, an updated water sector study/action plan is underway using various studies previously prepared by the World Health Organization, Swedish International Development  - 8 - Association, and United Nations. This study will help to improve the Government's planning capacity in the water sector. Aid and Debt 16. Under the base-case scenario presented in the last Country Economic Memorandum, Uganda's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 4.72 per annum through 1985 and 3.6% per annum over the subsequent five years. These projections assume a steady improvement in the internal security situation and continued progress on economic reforms. The viability of this scenario is also critically dependent on the availability of foreign exchange to finance recurrent imports and priority rehabilitation projects. The recent recovery in export performance is expected to continue. However, an important factor in this assumption is that Uganda's coffee quota will be increased from 2.3 million bags in 1983 to 2.5 million bags in 1985. Although Uganda's case for a higher quota is strong, such an increase is not assured. The current account deficit, in real terms, Is projected to rise in 1984 and then steadily decline 6ver the remainder of the decade. This has major implications for external financing requirements: (a) Commitment levels are required to increase by an average of 5% during 1984 and 1985 to US$444 million in 1985 and then to continue rising by about 4% per annum (below the projected rate of international inflation). (b) The composition of commitments is as important as the levels themselves. Under Ugandan conditions, balance of payments support will continue to be essential for at least the next two to three years. However, project aid will become increasingly important during the second half of the decade and even has a role to play in the short term, provided it is consistent with the rehabilitation priorities in the Revised Recovery Program. Technical assistance, while not as large in dollar terms, is important to improve public administration and to make other aid effective. (c) The net benefit to Uganda of higher commitments could soon be eroded if they are not provided on concessional terms. This does not preclude the possibility of utilizing some commercial bank loans or suppliers' credits in association with concessional assistance, but only for selected projects that generate additional net foreign exchange earnings to cover fully the related debt obligations. However, arrangements which involve prior claims on foreign exchange, such as coffee barter deals, should be avoided. On the Ugandan side, every effort must be made to strengthen aid coordination and administration. To this end, the Government has now reaffirmed that formal responsibility for aid managemenr, including signing agreements and approving disbursements, lies with the Ministry of Finance.  - 9 - To facilitate this function, an aid coordinator has been appointed at the Permanent Secretary level and he is to be assisted by a staff of twelve. In addition, the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (NPED) has a vital role to play in assuring that aid mobilized is in line with the priorities of the Revised Recovery Program and in monitoring aid utilization and project implementation. Therefore, appropriate staff, facilities, and technical assistance should also be allocated to the MPEM so that these functions can be performed effectively and working level contacts between MPED and the Ministry of Finance can be strengthened. 17. Uganda's external debt outstanding and disbursed had reached an estimated USS661 million by the end of 1983. Of this aount. 3.5Z was due to the Bank/Association (for Uganda's notional sbare of EAC loans) and 13.5% to the Association alone. Fortunately for Uganda, the terms of new aid comnitments since 1979 have been highly concessional, with about half being grants and the balance being loans with a grant element of 60Z. However, other debt obligations, such as war-related assistance and IMF purchases, have helped to raise the overall debt service ratio to around 50t during 1981-83. Under the base-case scenario in the Country Economic Memorandum, the debt service ratio is projected to fall back to 462 in 1984 and 31% by 1990. This, however, is still cause for concern. The down-side risks are very real. Uganda's export structure still depends heavily on coffee earnings, which could be constrained by further quota restrictions and unfavorable price movements. Also, the Government may find reduction in import requirements for security-related activities difficult. Finally, adequate amounts of assistance on concessional terms may not be forthcoming to support recovery. This outlook reinforces the importance of external debt management. Progress has been made over the past year in improving debt recording and an External Debt Hanagement Office has been established. The real priority now is to develop an appropriate borrowing program for Uganda and ensure adherence by centralizing the authority to contract debts. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 18. Uganda joined the Bank, the Association, and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in 1963. Between 1967 and 1971, the Association provided seven credits to the country totalling US$48.0 million for projects in education, roads, and agriculture (tea, tobacco, and beef ranching). In addition, Uganda benefitted from 10 loans amounting to US$244.8 million for the development of common services of the East African Community and for the East African Development Bank. IFC's first investment in Uganda, in a textile company. was sold to the Government in 1970. The second, to help finance two lodges in the national parks, was cancelled in 1972 before construction began. IFC approved new investments in the Sugar Corporation of Uganda and in the Toro and Mityana Tea Company in FY84 and in the Development Finance Company of Uganda in FY85. Annex II gives further details about IFC investments in the country.  - 10 - 19. Operations of the Association in Uganda were interrupted because of the military regime from June 1971 until February 1980 (paragraphs 4 and 5). Since February 1980, the Association has provided 13 credits to Uganda totalling to USS473.5 million. The credits were based on a lending strategy consistent with priorities identified in the Government's Recovery Program and were designed to help restore the economy to a fully functioning level through: rehabilitation of basic infrastructure and productive capacity; strengthening of administrative, institutional, and technical capacity; and implementation of appropriate sector policies. 20. To meet urgent rehabilitation needs, the Association has been providing fast disbursing funds under three reconstruction credits. The first Reconstruction Program (Credit No. 983-TUG of 1980 for USS72.5 million) included a participation of USS17.5 million by the Government of the Netherlands (Credit No. 983-1-UG). It also was complemented by European Economic Community Special Action Credit (54-UG for USS20.0 million). In addition, the Government of Canada provided a grant of CanS3.0 million and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Fund made available a program loan of USS5.0 million. Although the Reconstruction Program originally experienced implementation delays and slow disbursements, it now is fully disbursed. The Second Reconstruction Program (Credit No. 1252-UG of 1982 for USS70.0 million) is under implementation; awards have been made to suppliers for the full amount of the credit. The Governments of Canada-and the Netherlands made grants in the amounts of CanS5.0 million and DFL 15.0 million, respectively, in supplementary financing for the Second Prozram. The Third Reconstruction Program (Credit No. 1474-UG of 1984 for USS50.0 million) became effective In November 1984. The amount of DFL 20.0 million is being provided as supplementary financing by the Government of the Netherlands. 21. The Association also has been supporting technical assistance to key institutions through the First Technical Assistance Project (Crediz No. 1077-UG of 1981 for USS8.0 million) and the Second Technical Assistance Project (Credit No. 1434-UG of 1984 for USS15.0 million). Disbursements are nearly completed for the First Project. Commitments are being made more quickly for the Second Project. Although small in financial terms, technical assistance represents an essential component of the Association's lending strategy, both to strengthen the Government's administrative/institutional capacity as well as to facilitate project preparation and implementation. It also serves the vital objective of assisting training, both directly and through upgrading of facilities. 22. In addition, the Association has been providing rehabilitation credits, which total USS258.0 million, for engineering related to water supply and phosphate exploitation operations and for agricultural, industry, telecommunications, and water supply and sanitation projects; a third education project; and a third highway project. These projects also include technical assistance components. Annex II gives further details about the projects. Implementation has been somewhat slower than expected, largely due to the shortage of Government counterpart funds (paragraph 24).  - 11 - 23. In the immediate future, operations of the Association will remain focussed on rehabilitation projects, such as the proposed project and a power rehabilitation project currently under preparation. The emphasis will shift gradually into traditional Projects in the agricultural, energy, industry, and transport sectors. This shift will be to help relieve bottlenecks that are hampering recovery. The Association intends to continue to provide technical assistance in these sectoral projects. 24. Disbursements from the Association to Uganda grew from US$1.2 million in FY80 to US$41.2 million in FY84. A comparison with other portfolios in the Eastern Africa Region indicates that the disbursement rat" for Uganda was higher than the average for the Region, ranging as a proportion of outstanding commitments from 44.4% in FY80 to 30.3% in FY83 (compared with 20.4% and 27.2% in the same years for the Region as a whole). In FY84, the disbursement rate for Uganda declined to 17.7%, mostly because of lack of local funds to be provided by the Government, while that of the Region declined to 23.1%. 25. In addition to its own lending portfolio, the Bank Group is administering an Agriculture Reconstruction Program financed by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (Loan No. 80-UG for US$17.6 million and Grant No. 85-UG for USSO.94 million of 1982); an Assistance in Economic Planning Project (No. UGA 79/011 of 1981 for USS3.3 million) and a Line of Credit to Assist the Uganda Development Bank (No. UGA 80/017 of 1983 for USS2.0 million) financed by the UNDP; and an Industrial Loan to the Uganda Development Bank (Loan No. 301-PG of 1983 for USS15.0 million) financed by the OPEC Fund. PART III - THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 26. Cultivable land in Uganda amounts to 165,000 kmZ out of the total land area of 241,000 km2. About 25% of the cultivable land is cropped each year. Sandy clay loams and clay loams are the predominant soil types in the country. The mild climate and generally adequate rainfall provide good growing conditions for many crops. 27. The average farm size varies from about 1.5 ha in the more fertile and montane areas to 8.0 or 9.0 ha in northern Uganda. Most farmers have permanent possession of the land they cultivate, although ownership rights usually rest with the tribe. Grazing land and water sources are communally owned. Farms produce livestock and cash crops (coffee, cotton, sugar, tea, and tobacco), but food crops (finger millet, sorghum, maize, bananas/plantains, cassava, sweet potatoes, phaseolus beans, and groundnuts) dominate the farming pattern. Yields are low because of traditional low-risk, low-input technology. The livestock popdlation is now estimated at 5.0 million cattle, 3.7 million sheep and goats, and 0.3 million pigs. About 50% of Uganda's animal protein is obtainec from fish, the bulk of which are caught in Lake Kyoga by fishermen who operate on a small scale using simple wooden boats.  - 12 - The Role of Agriculture in the EconomY 28. Agriculture contributes about 52Z of GDP and supports 93Z of the population of about 13.5 million. Most industry is based on agriculture. Agriculture provides 95Z of Uganda's exports, which nom consist almost entirely of coffee. Previously, cotton, sugar, tea, and tobacco also were exported. Because of a lack of tools and inputs, decline of processing facilities, and inefficient marketing, coffee exports fell from 201,000 tons in 1970 to 95,000 tons in 1981. Within the limits set by the coffee quota, coffee exports are expected to increase in the future and to remain the backbone of Uganda's exports. However, the Government is now taking steps to diversify exports as much as possible. Agricultural Supporting Services 29. Organizational Responsibilities. Although other ministries are involved in agricultural development and administration, the most important ministries are the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (HAP) and the Ministry of Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAIF), both of which are adequately staffed with qualified officers. MUP is responsible for the development and implementation of crop production policies anad programs. It consists of the Departments of Agriculture and of Forestry, each headed by a Commissioner. MAIF has overall responsibility for development of the livestodk and fisheries subsectors. It encompasses the Departments of Veterinary Services, Isetse Control, and Fisheries. 30. Extension and Research. The Production Section of the Department of Agriculture is responsible for the national agricultural extension service. Under the field ndministration of the Department, Uganda is divided into ten agricultural regions, each under a Regional Agricultural Officer assisted by specialist staff. Each district in each region has a District Agricultural Officer, who is assisted by district headquarters staff and junior officers at county and parish levels. The national extension staff total about 2,300 agents, 700 of whom are university graduates (see paragraph 33). Three main research stations (Serere, Kawanda, and Numulonge) serve Uganda. They are under the Research Section of the Department of Agriculture (see paragraph 34). Agricultural Pricing 31. A free market exists for food crops and prices are market determined. Prices for producers are administered for the major export crops of coffee, tea, cotton, cocoa, and tobacco. Since 1980, these producer prices have been increased sharply. This increase has been a main factor underlying the improvement in agricultural production. While agricultural pricing policy has, in general, been an effective stimulus for production, three areas of concern exist. First, the price setting procedures could be improved, in terms of methodology, data base, and the timeliness and appropriateness of the pricing proposals. An Agricultural Secretariat has been set up to coordinate and strengthen the price determination process and detailed pricing proposals have been formulated. The success with which the Government has been able to judge the appropriate level of producer prices is remarkable considering the absence  - 13 - of meaningful statistics. The Government has taken steps to improve the data base, including a study on the costs of production, processing, and marketing of major crops. An agricultural census is planned for 1985. Second, while producer prices have been sharply increased, the farmer's share of the export proceeds has fallen since 1980 for the four major export crops. Processing and marketing costs for these exports, on the other hand, have grown as a share of export proceeds. This has happened despite an increase in the volume of produce handled by the processors and marketing boards. Over the medium-term, measures are vitally needed to reduce the margins of the processing and marketing intermediaries. Third, Government receipts from the export tax on coffee have continued to increase, from USh 4 billion in 1980-81 to USh 31 billion in 1982-83 and an estimated USh 60 billion in 1983-84. These receipts are a major source of Government revenue. Producer prices will continue to be an important policy tool for the Government. The right balance must be sought between maintaining Government revenues and encouraging production, and efforts must be made to ensure that changes in the exchange rate are fully reflected in the producer prices through periodic price adjustments.- Constraints and Policy Issues 32. Constraints. The main constraints to increased agricultural production are shortages of agricultural tools and other inputs, weaknesses in supporting services (especially agricultural extension and research), and inefficiency of marketing through parastatals. Cattle production has been limited by serious and mainly uncontrolled outbreaks of contagious disease, especially contagious bovine pleuro-pneumonia (CBPP) and rinderpest, and by the recent re-invasion of the tsetse fly into previously cleared land. The dramatic drop in fish production since 1975 is believed to be related to a shortage of boats, fishing nets, and transportation facilities. However, over-fishing may have occurred and ecological changes in Lake Kyoga may have reduced fish stocks. 33. Because of low pay, lack of transport, and inadequate extension messages, agricultural and livestock extension services are inefficient and inactive. Even when fully operational, the extension services had limited success in increasing production because: (a) extension was directed toward larger, progressive farmers and cash crops, and the technology promoted was not always applicable to the majority of farmers who practice subsistance agriculture; (b) training for extension staff and farmers was ineffective; (c) systematic feed-back was not arranged between farmers and extension staff; (d) cooperation between livestock and agricultural extension services was minimal; and (e) production programs for particular crops were uncoordinated and operated independent of extension services. 34. Agricultural research in Uganda has concentrated on high input cash crop farming because of its early economic importance. Research has largely been limited to research stations, and the results obtained have not always been appropriate for the state of smallholder agriculture in Uganda. Over recent years, research has degenerated as a result of apathy and lack of funds and materials. Much rehabilitation is required before research can play a significant role in agricultural development.  - 14 - 35. Policies and Strategies for Agricultural Development. The Government's development strategy is outlined in the Revised Recovery Program (1982-84). The pivotal role of agriculture in the economy has been recognized. In addition, development objectives within the sector have been identified. These objectives are to encourage smaliholder agricultural production, to develop the cooperative movement, and to encourage marketing and export through parastatal organizations. The attainment of these objectives will depend on continuing progress in the improvement and maintenance of law and order as well as on further rehabilitatioa of the civil service and the physical and social infrastructure within the country. Major constraints to be overcome in order to achieve these objectives are the lack of imported inputs and spare parts for processing machinery and the inefficiences and weaknesses of agricultural support institutions. 36. The Government has introduced incentives to encourage increases in cash crop production, which include devaluating the Ugandan currency, setting realistic producer prices (e.g., prices for cotton have been doubled), dismantling price controls on food crops, ensuring prompt cash payment for cash crops offered for sale, decontrolling consumer goods, and encouraging foreign investment. As a result of these incentives, the Government reports that official purchases of export crops have increased. Official Government statistics also indicate improvements in food production and in control of animal disease. World Bank Operations in the Sector 37. Prior to 1971 when the military Government came into power, the Bank Group provided support for three agriculture projects. A Smaliholder Tea Project (Credit No. 109-UG of 1968 for US$3.4 million) was successful, but a Smallholder Tobacco Project (Credit No. 212-UG of 1971 for US$4.0 million) failed to achieve its objectives because of insufficient management, general economic decline, and political instability. A Beef Ranching Development Project (Credit No. 130-UG of 1968 for US$3.4 million) initially was successful, but the ranches established were adversely affected by the 1979 war. The First and Second Reconstruction Programs (Credit Nos. 983-UG of 1980 for US$72.5 million and 1252-UG of 1982 for US$70.0 million) financed some imported inputs and spare parts for agriculture but funds from other aid sources were directed to specific activities with the result that the need for financing general inputs was not satisfied. To address this need, the Bank Group acted as Executing Agency for the Agricultural Reconstruction Program (ARP). This program R received a loan of US$21.5 million in 1982 from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It provided assistance to the agricultural sector for the procurement of inputs required by smailholders in the administrative districts of Apac, Gulu, Kitgum, Kumi, Lira, Soroti, and Tororo, which were economically disadvantaged but not directly assisted by other projects. Also, the Association financed the Technical Assistance Project (Credit No. 1077-UG of 1980 for US$8.0 million), which supported overseas training fellowships in planning and economics and establishment of an agricultural secretariat to assist with policy setting. The Agricultural Rehabilitation Project (Credit No. 1328-UC of 1983 for US$70.0 million) is providing for: additional imports; rehabilitation of tea,  - 15 - cotton, tobacco, and coffee processing; and introduction of reforms to improve the efficiency of export iarketing, development planning, and policy setting. Finally, the Third Reconstruction Program (Credit No. 1474-UG of 1984 for US$50.0 millior.), which became effective in November 1984, will support local production of agricultural inputs. PART IV - THE PROJECT 38. Background. The ARP financed the preparation of a follow-up project to further expand agricultural production and to improve supporting services. A preparation document was Produced in September 1983 entitled "Integrated Food 7roduction and Rural Development Project in Eastern and Northern Uganda". This document formed the basis of a Government request to the Association and IFAD to finance the present project. The project was appraised in November/December 1983. A staff appraisal report entitled -Uganda - Agricultural Development Project-, Report No. 5009-UG dated December 3, 1984 has been distributed to the Executive Directors separately. Negotiations for the project among the Government, the Association, and the IFAD were held in Rome November 5-9, 1984. The Government of Uganda was represented by a delegation led by The Honorable Sam Odaka, Minister of Planning and Economic Development. A Credit and Project Summary is at the beginning of this Report, and a Supplementary Project Data Sheet is attached as Annex III. Rationale for Support from the Association and IFAD 39. The further cooperation of the Association and IFAD to support agricultural development in Uganda can be justified on several grounds. Both institutions have considerable experience with tne country as a result of their involvement with the Government in drawing up the agricultural rehabilitation program. In addition, they can provide the guidance necessary for the development of complex technological and institutional reforms. Finally, because the project includes pilot models for development which can be replicated in additional projects throughout the country, the cooperation of the two institutions could result in long term benefits to Uganda well beyond the project itself. Relationship of the Project to Government Agricultural Sector Strategy 40. The project is a logical follow-up to the ARP (paragraph 37) and an integral part of the Government's agricultural development strategy for economically depressed areas, as enunciated in the Revised Recovery Program (1982-84) (paragraph 35). Continuation of the supply of inputs initiated under the ARP would ensure further increases in crop, livestock, and fisheries production. It also would help to alleviate poverty and food shortages and to establish food security. Attention to raising the levels of efficiency and production of weakened agricultural institutions would enable the institutions to resume significant roles in agricultural development. Initiation of pioneering methods to increase the effectiveness of extension and research services, and confirmation of the methods on a pilot basis, could lead to a nationwide program to improve institutions and services.  - 16 - Proiect Obiectives 41. The objectives of the project would be to increase food production and family income of smallholder farmers and fishermn in the project area defined as the administrative districts of Apac, Gulu, Kitgua, Kumi, Lira, Soroti, and Tororo in eastern and northern Uganda. The project also would increase the availability of data to formulate sector development plans. The objectives would be achieved by: (a) providing basic agricultural, livestock, and fisheries inputs; (b) providing support for adaptive research, introducing the trapping method for tsetse fly control, and surveying and monitoring fisheries resources; and (c) strengthening selected agricultural institutions and services involved in agricultural extension as well as project monitoring and evaluation and introducing the training and visit (T&V) system of agricultural extension. Description of Components A. Input Supplies 42. Agricultural Inputs. Hand tools, ox-carts, ox-plows, suall flour mills, seeds, bicycles, wheelbarrows, workshop equipment, spare parts, agricultural chemicals, and forestry nursery supplies would be financed. Equipment would be provided for workshops at Arapai and Ngetta and for an existing mobile workshop to repair ox-plows. 43. Livestock Inputs. Veterinary drugs and equipment, vaccines, acaricides, vehicles, and spare parts would be made available. A mobile laboratory (to oversee CBPP outbreaks) and materials for rehabilitation of quarantine holding grounds would be provided. 44. Fisheries Supplies. Outboard motors, spare parts, fish nets, boat building materials, and vehicles would be supplied. 45. Accurate calculations of input requirements are not possible and many estimates are tentative, having been based on the judgement of senior staff working on the ongoing ARP and on demand projections from sales at warehouses and cooperative stores. More precise estimates of requirements can only be made after the project has started, necessitating a flexible approach to arrange for supply of most items. Estimates of input requirements should, therefore, be regarded as indicative. Additional funds have been provided for the procurement of certain items (rice hullers, groundnut shellers, and millet threshers), for which needs have been identified but quantities not specified.  - 17 - B. Research and Surveys 46. Adaptive Research. An adaptive research section would be established at Serere Research Station to identify research programs responsive to farmers' needs, test research recomendations on farmers' fields, and create linkages between research and extension. Vehicles, civil works, office and laboratory equipment, allowances, and incremental operating costs would be financed. 47. Tsetse Fly Control. The control of tsetse flies in northern and eastern Uganda has been difficult. Cleared corridors have falled to give long term control and a combination of clear felling and ground spraying is now being used in the Lira/Apac area. The spraying involves widespread use of large quantities of hazardous chemicals. Costs per unit of area protected are exceedingly high. A new approach to control based on the use of fly traps is being studied in other countries. Under the project, assistance would be provided to the Department of Tsetse Control in the MAIF to establish a pilot tsetse control program using traps. Funds would be provided for training and technical assistance and for necessary materials, equipment, and vehicle operating costs to support establishment, maintenance, and supervision of the pilot program and the activities of the consultants. 48. Fisheries Research and Surveys. The studies and surveys would help provide necessary data on the liunological equilibrium, which is necessary for future planning of fisheries exploitation in Lake Kyoga. A fish stock assessment for Lake Kyoga complex would be conducted by a unit to be based at the Uganda Freshwater Fisheries Research Organization in Jinja. A fisheries statistics and evaluation study would assess the current status of fisheries in Lake Kyoga and monitor changes in fish production, including catch composition, fishing patterns and techniques, and marketing and distribution practices. Full-time services of fisheries statistics staff and fisheries field staff would be provided for the studies. Provision of launches, dinghies, vehicles. prefabricated huts, camping gear, and protective clothing and repair of landing and shore facilities for the launches would be financed. C. Institution Building 49. Agricultural Extension. Activities in the project area would be improved by the provision of in-service training for agricultural extension staff. In addition, T&V would be introduced into Soroti District on a pilot basis to determine suitability for making significant improvements in production on subsistence farms. The necessary additional agricultural extension staff would be posted to Soroti District. 50. A high measure of personal contact between all levels of extension staff and farmers would be established. To facilitate field visits, a four wheel drive vehicle would be provided for each Agricultural Officer. The Government would continue to provide extension staff with bicycles or motorcycles under a hire-purchase scheme satisfactory to the Association and IFAD. The Government also would pay travel and transport allowances from a Trarsport Account to be established for the project  - 18 - (paragraph 72). Funds for travel and transport would be included in the project. To facilitate visits to farmer groups, extension workers would be required to live in areas where they operate. Galvanized iron roofing sheets, tasteners, and other building materials would be provided under the project for extension workers' houses. 51. Necessary incremental office equipment would be financed. Field staff would be supplied with extension aids. Equipment and materials would be provided for modernizing the Information and Visual Aids Center at MAF headquarters. Training for extension staff (para. uh 53) would be provided at Serere District Farm Institute, Arapai Community Development Training Center, Arapai Agricultural College and Ngetta District Farm Institute. These institutions would be upgraded under the project by the provision of civil works, building renovation, equipment, technical assistance and trained staff. Qualified training personnel would be provided by Serere Research Station to conduct courses at Serere District Farm Institute and a farm manager and graduate teaching staff would be appointed to Arapai Community Development Training Center and Ngetta District Farm Institute. 52. Monitoring and Evaluation. The existing MAF Monitoring and Evaluation Unit would be strengthened by the provision of vehicles, equipment, technical assistance, training, and operating costs. A routine monitoring system would be established for the project, which would be submitted to the Association and IFAD for review by June 30, 1985 and which would, taking account of comments received, be made operational (Section 5.02 (ii) - (iii) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). A base-line survey needs to be done before the start-up of the agricultural extension component to determine, inter alia, agricultural production levels and the current status of extension operations (paragraphs 30 and 33). A system for mDnitoring distribution and sale of goods provided through project warehouses also needs to be designed and implemented. Quarterly reports, annual reports, special reports on selected topics, and a project completion report would be produced. The Government would submit to the Association and IFAD, not later than September 30, 1987, a detailed, mid-term assessment of overall project performance for review, comment, and, if necessary, recommendation of any changes in project design (Section 4.11 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). D. Training 53. Extension Training. Important training for operational extension staff under the project would include bi-annual (pre-season) training, monthly workshops for senior staff and research personnel, fortnightly training sessions for field staff, and special short courses. Orientation seminars would be held for senior district level representatives of the ministries and for district level specialist staff. 54. In-Service and Overseas Training. In-service training would be provided by consultants for Ugandan staff counterparts to enable them to take over project responsibilities when consultancies end. Overseas training would be financed in:  - 19 - (a) extension methodology; (b) agronomy, plant protection, horticulture, mechanization, and rice production; (c) monitoring and evaluation techniques; (d) adaptive research; (e) fish stock assessment and fisheries statistics; and (f) tsetse fly control. E. Technical Assistance 55. To manage the supply of inputs, execute the research program, introduce new methods of extension, and strengthen monitoring and evaluation, about 24 man-years of technical assistance from consultants would be required to execute the project (paragraph 75), including: Ca) input management-a procurement manager (24 man-months), a project accountant (24 man-months), and two warehouse managers (.4 man-months each); (b) extension-a T&V specialist (36 man-months) and a training specialist (30 man-months); (c) research and surveys-an adaptive agricultural research specialist (24 man-months), a tsetse fly control specialist (8 man-months), a fisheries stock assessment specialist (24 man-months), a fisheries statistician (24 man-months), and t..,ee fish biologists (4 man-months each); and (d) a monitoring and evaluation specialist (30 man-months). The conditions to the effectiveness of the Development Credit Agreement include the employment of the procurement manager and the project accountant (Section 7.01 (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Organization and Implementation 56. Timing and Responsibilities.. The project would be implemented over a four year period by the MAF and the MAIF. Within the MAF, the Commissioner for Agriculture would have overall responsibility for agriculture and agricultural research and would be charged with establishing and maintaining liaison between project and parallel donor financed activities in the same field. The Forestry Commissioner would be responsible for utilization of inputs provided for forestry nurseries. The Deputy Commissioner for Production would oversee the input supply program as well as agricultural extension and training. The Deputy Commissioner in charge of the Planning and Statistics Section would be responsible for  - 20 - ensuring that sufficient MAF and MAIF field and headquarters staff are allocated to the monitoring and evaluation program. The Chief Research Officer would assume responsibility for on-farm adaptive research. 57. Within the MAIF, the Commi8sioner for Tsetse Control would be responsible for the tsetse fly trapping study and would allocate necessary staff resources. All other livestock related aspects of the project wvuld be under the control of the Commissioner for Veterinary Services and AnImal Industry, who would arrange the use of veterinary supplies under the project in the department's ongoing vaccination and disease control programs. The Commissioner for Fisheries would be responsible for project fishery inputs and for fishery surveys and studies. He also would arrange for the use of the Uganda Freshwater Fisheries Research Organization facilities by staff working on the fish stock assessment survey (paragraph 48). 58. Coordination. Overall coordination of the project would be through the Interministerial Committee, which was established under the ARP. This Committee is chaired by the Permanent Secretary for Agriculture and includes representatives fzom the MAY, the MAIF and the Ministries of Finance, Cooperatives and Marketing, Local Governments, Culture and Community Development, and Planning and Economic Development. The Committee would receive and consider all project reports and accounts, supervise expenditures, approve overseas training, and approve procurement of major project items and would meet monthly. An executive secretary for the Committee would be app6inted, with qualifications and experience satisfactory to the Association, who would head a small Project Management Unit to be established under the project and be responsible for the day to day management of the project and coordination among components. Actual procurement would be through the Procurement Unit serving the MAF and HAIF. The Government would provide necessary support staff for the Project Management Unit. In both the MAF and MAIF, a Project Implementation Unit would be established to coordinate each ministry's activities under the project. The conditions to the effectiveness of the Development Credit Agreement include the appointment of an executive secretary for the Project Managementt Unit and the establishment of the Project Management and Implementation Units (Section 7.01 (f) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Planning targets, including an assessment of goods to be imported, would be set out in detailed annual work programs for the project prepared by each Ministry. The programs would be submitted to the Association and IFAD for their review and comments not later than April 1 of each year and would be carried out taking such comments into account (Section 4.09 (a) - (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). A condition to the effectiveness of the Development Credit Agreement is the submission to the Association and IFAD of the work program for fiscal year 1985/86 (Section 7.01 (b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 59. Procurement Management and Distribution. The executive secretary of the Project Management Unit would receive requests and estimates for procurement under the project from the MAF and MAIF Project Implementation Units. Procurement specifications would be approved by the procurement manager, who would be the head of the Procurement Unit, before preparation of tender documents and lists submitted to the Association and IFAD for  - 21 - approval and prior to inviting tenders. Following tender evaluation, procurement would be approved by the Interministerial Committee and by the Central Tender Board in accordance with Government regulations. 60. Goods procured under the project for distribution would be delivered to the project warehouses at Lira, Soroti, and Tororo. Assistant managers and support staff provided to operate Lira, Soroti, and Tororo warehouses under the ARP would continue in employment under the project. Goods would be made available to primary cooperatives and private traders registered in the distribution area at the warehouses or at delivery points in the area (cooperative stores or retail outlets as requested by traders). To avoid distribution bottlenecks, the 16 lorries acquired for the ARP would be used to distribute goods from project warehouses. Reports on the distribution system (paragraph 81) would be submitted to the Association and IFAD for review every six months beginning December 31, 1985 (Section 4.08 (i) - (ii) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 61. Some drugs (CBPP, rinderpest, foot and mouth, and rabies)-would be provided free through vaccination campaigns administered by veterinary staff. Other 'ethical" drugs that are not provided free by the Government would be administered by each District Veterinary Officer. All 'nonr ethical" drugs would be sold to the cooperative stores and/or registered traders for resale to livestock owners in the same manner as other farm inputs. 62. Input Marketing. Inputs would be sold from the Central warehouses at Lira, Soroti, and Tororo at wholesale prices based on CIF prices delivered to the warehouses, plus a 5% margin to cover storage and handling. They would be sold for cash to traders registered in the area of input distribution and to area cooperative societies, which would be responsible for retail distribution and sale. Retail prices would be set freely by traders and cooperatives. 63. Acaricides are now subject to a Government subsidy of 50%. The Government, however, plans to phase out this subsidy by December 31, 1986 (Section 5.04 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). If the subsidy remains, no acaricides would be distributed under the project until the Government has paid into the Project Account the amount in local currency equivalent to the subsidy (paragraph 71). Costs and Financing 64. Costs. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$31.4 million. This consists of US$24.9, or 79%, in foreign costs and US$6.6, or 212, in local costs, including taxes and duties of US$1.4 million. Cost estimates are based on findings during appraisal (November/December 1983), updated to October 1984 base line costs. Physical contingencies total US$1.4 million, or about 10% of the base cost of civil works, equipment, training, and operating and maintenance costs. Price contingencies amount to US$6.1 million, or about 25% of the total base cost, and were calculated assuming international price escalations of 8Z in 1985 and 9% in 1986-89 and domestic price escalations of 15% in 1985, 10% in 1986, 8% in 1987-88, and 7.5% in 1989.  - 22 - 65. The amount of US$410,500 has been included in the project cost to cover start-up activities during the six months prior to project effectiveness (paragraph 66). These activities include execution of a base-line survey in the project area, technical assistance to establish work programs for agricultural extension staff, and preliminary training in Kenya for agricultural extension staff from Soroti District. To ensure efficient transfer of warehouse stocks and avoid a hiatus in warehouse management between the end of the ARP and the effectiveness of the present project, the services of procurement consultants also would be financed. 66. Financing. Project costs would be covered as follows: Source Local Foreign Total Percent ----USS million-- IDA Second Technical Assistance Project credit .3 .3 1 IDA Agricultural Development Project credit - 10.0 10.0 32 IFAD Agricultural Development Project loan - 14.5 14.5 46 Government 6.6 /1 - 6.6 21 Total 6.6 24.8 31.4 100 /1 Including taxes and duties of US$1.4 million. The Association would provide US$326,200 toward the cost of start-up activities out of the Second Technical Assistance Project, which has as one of its objectives the support of project preparation activities. This support, together with the IDA credit of US$10.0 million and the IFAD loan of US$14.5 million under the present project, would be equivalent to about 79% of project costs overall, or 83% of project costs net of taxes and duties. These three sources of external financing would cover the full foreign exchange costs of the project. The effectiveness of the IFAD Loan Agreement and the appointment by IFAD of the Association as Cooperating Institution to administer the IFAD loan on terms and conditions acceptable to the Association are conditions to the effectiveness of the Development Credit Agreement (Section 7.01 (a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 67. Local costs, including incremental operating costs, would be covered by the Government. Adequate funds to cover local incremental operating costs and local investment costs under the project would come from counterpart funds generated by the sale of inputs under the ARP, which have been and would be deposited in the ARP Program Account in the Bank of Uganda.  - 23 - Disbursements 6S_ Funds for start-up activities under the proposed project would be disbursed in the first project year from the credit under the Second Technical Assistance Project, while those for the portion of the balance of the activities which the Association is to support would be disbursed from the proposed credit in FY86-90. Except for civil works carried out by force account (landing stage repairs), for which disbursements would be against certificates of expenditure, disbursements would be against full documentation. Disbursements also would be against 100Z of foreign expenditures for civil works, vehicles and equipment, materials and drugs, training and technical assistance, and recurrent costs. They would be made on a joint financing basis with IFAD. The Association would cover 402 and IFAD 602 of the foreign expenditures. 69. The average disbursement period for agricultural projects in Uganda is eight years. Disbursements are assumed to be more rapid under the proposed project for the following reasons: Ci) 76Z of the value of disbursements is for vehicles, equipment, materials, and drugs, which would be procured through the well established Procurement Unit. (ii) 15Z of the value of disbursements is for technical assistance, which is to be provided through ten long-term technical assistance positions. Six positions would be financed under project start-up activities, of which four (for the Procurement Unit) are already in place. Ciii) 7Z of the value of disbursements is for start-up activities (mostly technical assistance), recurrent costs (mostly materials and equipment), and unallocated items and 2% is for civil works, of which half is for prefabricated housing to be procured on a turnkey basis for the technical assistance consultancies. 70. To expedite the flow of funds for disbursement of minor amounts, a Special Account would be established in the Bank of Uganda. The total value of the Account would be USS200,000 equivalent. Expenditures under all categories would be eligible for disbursement from the Special Account. However, the ceiling on contract value to be financed under the Special Account would be US$100,000. Financial Control, including Accounts and Audit 71. Project Account. Revenue from inputs sold under the project through the warehouses of the MAF and HAIF to private beneficiaries would be deposited into a Project Account in the Bank of Uganda. These funds would be earmarked for rural development purposes after consultation among the Government, the Association, and IFAD (Section 4.02 (b) (i) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). A condition to the effectiveness of the Development Credit Agreement is the opening of the Project Account (Section 7.01 (d) of the draft Development Credit Agreement).  - 24 - 72. Transport Account. Staff travel, vehicle, and overnight allowances must be paid promptly if project activities are to be carried out efficiently. To ensure that staff engaged in project supported activities are paid t%psf- transport and travel allowances on tine, an account would be established- in a bank acceptable to the Association and IFAD. At the beginning of each quarter, the Government would deposit into the account the amount estimated to be required to cover project expenditures for staff transport and travel allowances during such quarter. A condition to the effectiveness of the Develapment Credit Agreement is the opening of the Tr insport Account with an initial deposit of USh 65 million (the equivalent of four months recurrent expenditures for staff travel and transport allowancen) (Section 7.01 (e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 73. Accounts and Audit. lTe Procurement and Implementation Units of the MAF and MAIF would open and administer separate project accounts for project-related activities. The project accountant would be responsible for maintaining accounts related to the procurement and disposal of goods and for accounts of project related expenditures in MAF and MAIF. Project accounts would be audited by indepen2ent auditors acceptable to the Association and IFAD. Certified copies of relevant financial statements would be made available to the Association and IFAD no more than six months after the end of each financial year. Procurement 74. Procurement arrangements are summarized in the table below: Procurement Method International Local Competitive Competitive Project Element Pidding (ICB) Bidding (LCB) Other N.A. Total US$ million Civil Works 0.6 0.7 - - 1.3 (0.4) (0.1) - - (0.5) Vehicles 4.4 - _ 4.4 (1.4) - _ (1.4) Equipment 13.6 0.2 0.1 - 13.9 (5.1) (0.1) - - (5.2) Drugs and Materials 2.6 1.2 - 3.8 (1.0) (0.4) - (1.4) Training - 0.7 0.7 - (0.3) (0.3) Technical Assistance - 4.3 - 4.3 (1.4) - (1.4) Recurrent Costs - - 3.0 3.0 - (0.1) (0.1) Total 21.2 0.9 5.6 3.7 31.4 = _ = _ _ Of which Association financed /1 (7.9) (0.2) (1.8) (0.4) (10.3) /1 Through the present project and the Second Technical Assistance Project combined.  - 25 - 75. Civil works are small-scale and scattered through the project area. They would be unlikely to appeal to international contractors. Civil works contracts would, therefore, be grouped to the extent possible and others awarded according to LCB procedures acceptable to the Association and IFAD or carried out by force account. To minimize delays, an exception would be made for prefabricated housing to be procured for long-term technical assistance staff and prefabricated huts, which would be grouped as a package (US$0.6 million) and procured on a turnkey basis through ICB. Equipment vehicles, drugs, and materials would be bulked to the extent practicable into packages of US$100,000 or more and procured through ICB. Qualifying domestic manufacturers would receive a preference of 15% of the bid price CIF or the actual customs and duties and import taxes, whichever is less. Contracts for goods valued at less than US$100,000 would be awarded either according to ICB procedures for goods not available locally or on the basis of the Central Tender Board's normal competitive bidding procedures acceptable to the Association and IFAD. Certain specialized items, including seeds, veterinary drugs, equipment with only one or two known suppliers, and some spare parts, would be purchased according to negotiated contract. Consultants for technical assistance (paragraph 55) would be selected in accordance with the guidelines of the Association. All bidding packages for works and goods estimated to cost over US$0.25 million would be subject to prior review of procurement documentation by the Association. This would result in a coverage of about 83Z of the total estimated value of contracts. The balance of contracts would be subject to selective post-award review. Environmental Impact 76. The project is expected to have no adverse effects on environmental conditions. Insecticides and aphicides to be provided would be used under controlled conditions, mainly in restricted areas (forestry nurseries, grain storage, and vegetable gardens). Improvement in the environment should result from better erosion ce-trol resulting from the strengthened extension services and from substitution of fly traps for the present chemical spray (dieldrin) used for tsetse fly control. Benefits and Risks 77. The main beneficiaries would be smallholder farmers and fishermen. Given the homogeneity of the seven districts under the project with regard to farm size and economic status of the inhabitants, most of the 430,000 families in the project area are likely to benefit from the supply of inputs because the majority are smallholders and own some livestock. The improved services would also be aimed at the smallholder. The 47,000 families in Soroti District would be expected to benefit substantially from the improved extension methodology to be introduced there. 78. Project benefits are difficult to quantify. Research and surveys account for 10% of the project costs, the outcome of which is uncertain. Institution building activities of a pilot nature, which account for 15Z of the project cost, may have only an indirect impact on production. Inputs to be sold to farmers at free market prices are responsible for the  - 26 - remaining 75% of costs. These inputs should have a direct short-term impact on production by improving yields (through the provision of hoes, pesticides, and improved seed), increasing area planted (hoes and plows), reducing storage losses (storage chemicals), and improving crop processing (flour mills) and farm transport facilities (ox-carts and bicycles). The impact, however, is difficult to measure, particularly since the typical farmer would select the most needed inputs rather than purchase the entire package available. The proposed composition of inputs is indicative. However, based on demand for inputs through the ABP, expressed demand is a reasonable indication of felt benefits. The bulk of the increase in benefits would be improved nutritional levels for the rural population, although there would be some export ea-'ings from cotton. 79. Given these difficulties, no attempt has been made to calculate the return on investment. Instead, an estimate has been made of the production increases that would be necessary to assure a return on investment of 152 (the likely opportunity cost of capital in Uganda). Investment costs, including those of the research and survey components, have been included in the calculation, which shows total production would have to increase by 5% above the pre-project level by the fourth year of the project and be maintained at that level to achieve an estimated rate of return equivalent to 15%. 80. Indications are clear that these increases could be achieved. For example, the repair of 20,000 plows and the provision of 10,000 new plows would permit farmers to increase the area under cultivation. With increased extension services, a conservative estimate of this increase would be 30%. Assuming an average cultivated area of 4.9 ha for each farmer in the project area, 44,000 additional hectares would be cultivated each year. The value of production per hectare is USh 26,000 and the increased area would be equivalent to USh 1,144 millions, or 2.4Z of the present value of production. The total cost of the new plows, spares, and workshop repair equipment is estimated at USh 213 million. 81. Risks. Depending on the general availability of agricultural and veterinary goods and supplies in other regions of Uganda, there is a risk that project inputs would be directed from the project area and sold either in other regions or outside the country. With the acceptance of registered traders with a strong profit motive as part of the distribution system, the risk is greater under the proposed project than it was under the ARP. To minimize this risk, the distribution and sale of goods would be constantly monitored and semi-annual reports on the distribution system would be submitted to the Association and IFAD (paragraph 60). If necessary, controls would be introduced to ensure that the sale of goods is restricted to the project area. 82. Low salaries and Government failure to pay expenses and allowances have caused a general lack of commitment and low morale in staff of all ministries. The Government recently increased salaries and allowances in order to redress these problems. The project strategy proposed to further ameliorate conditions is to provide adequate transport and other facilities as well as to arrange for payment of travel and transport allowances through the project accountant (paragraph 71).  - 27 - 83. The lack of appropriate extension messages has been cited as a reason for the failure of the extension services to instigate increases in agricultural production. There is, therefore, a risk that lack of extension messages may render the project's extension initiatives ineffective. However, technology is available which can be adapted to the needs of the subsistence farmer and, under the project, a consultant would be engaged to review these results and produce the first series of extension messages. In the longer term, the extension/research linkages are means of directing research into topics directly related to the problems of small farmers. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 84. The draft Development Credit Agreement between The Republic of Uganda and the Association and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 85. Additional conditions to the effectiveness of the Development Credit Agreement are: (a) the employment of the procurement manager and the project accountant (paragraph 55 and Section 7.01 (c) of the draft Development Credit agreement); (b) the appointment of an executive secretary for the Interministerial Committee who also would head the Pcoject Management Unit and the establishment of the Project Management and Implementation Units (paragraph 58 and Section 7.01 (f) of the draft Development Credit Agreement); Cc) the submission to the Association and IFAD of the work program for fiscal year 1985/86 (paragraph 58 and Section 7.01 (b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement); (d) the effectiveness of the IFAD Loan Ar,reement and the appointment by IFAD of the Association as the Cooperating * Institution to administer the IFAD 7oan (paragraph 66 and Section 7.01 (a) of the draft Development Credit Agreeimient); (e) the opening of the Project Account (paragraph 71 and Section 7.01 (d) of the draft Developmer: Credit Agreement; and (f) the opening of the Transport Account with an ini-ial deposit of USh 65 million (paragraph 72 and Section 7.01 (e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 86. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III to this report.  - 28 - 87. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 88. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. A.W. Clausen President Attachments Washington, D.C. December 11, 1984  - 29 - ANNEX I TAB L la Cr I: of 5 WAlS - mEc> tl.NTCATOR DATA UGANa fhlOCE C GROUS (WCIGIhED AVERAGS la PlOST ClowT 3581 ESTINAIS) lb RECENr LOWl hEIZ AFItCA NAOIZ INCU 19601b 1970/b 1ETDIATE/h SOUSI oF SMBA AFRICA s. o0 SIM am (TsO SQ. mu) TOTAL 236.0 Z36.0 236.0 AGRICULTMRAL 89.3 n.o 107.6 GNP MR CAn CUSS) 100.0 160.0 230.0 249.1 111Z.9 wm c0_oTmP CAPZ - (KILOGRAMS Of OIL EqUIVALENT) 27.0 58.0 23.0 62.8 529.0 PIuIUl -m ITAL SlT:S POPULATIoI.mtDO-rAR (THOUSANS) 7286.0 9758.0 13451.0 URN popULATION CE OF TOTAL) 5.2 8.0 8.7 19.2 29.7 POPULATION PSECTIOKS POUJL&TION I1 YEAR 2000 (tWILL) ,. ,, 24.7 STATIOARt POPUATION (NELL) .. .. 8.5 POPULATO MOE .. .. 2.0 POPIIL&TION DENSIT PERt Sq. It. 30.9 41.3 55.2 32.5 55.8 PEt SQ. I A121. LAS 81.6 97.8 121.1 119.2 111.5 ronianow ae muaUit (I) 0-14 tS &433 44.4 45.0 45.6 45.4 15-64 IRS 53.6 52.6 51.6 51.5 51.7 65 AND AOE 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.9 POPMAtart GWOTI RATE (:) TOTAL 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 8.8 URBAN 7.1 7.1 3.4 6.2 5.2 CRUDE SEIT RATE (PER TiDUS) 49.4 49.9 50.1 48.6 *7.0 CRUDE DEATH PATE (PER THOUS) 21.2 18.4 16.7 17.7 15.2 GROSS REPROWCT10# RATE 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.2 FAMILY PLFNIE ACCElPTRS. AINtIAL (THOUS) 3.8 16.1 Ic USERS (C OF HARRIED IEN) . FOOD AII uSuWII INnER OF rOn PROF. PER CAPITA (t969-71-100) 107.0 9.0 86.n 85.8 91.6 PER CAPI SUPPLY OF CALORIS (Z O REIQIRDIES) 96.0 96.0 80.0 86.4 98.2 PROtENS (GRS PEI DAY) 51.0 55.0 50.0 49.9 56.7 OF WHICH ANIAL AND PULSE 21.0 24.0 27.0 Id 18.3 17.0 CIILD (AGES 1-4) DEATS RA12 28.0 17.0 22.0 23.8 18.7 LIFE EXPECT. AT 811TR1 (YEARS) 43.0 4.8 46.6 48.4 51.7 INFANT C TFF. RATE (PR C 01W3S) 136.9 113.2 120.0 117.5 102.7 ACCESS TO SAfE WATER (C0PO) TOTAL 22.0 35.0 /c 21.8 35.6 URAN 88.0 100.0 Ic 61.5 54.1 RURAL 17.0 29_0 Ic 14.2 Ic 27.3 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL CZ OF POPLATION) Ta . 76.0 94.0 IC 32.0 URAN 34.0 82.0 Ie 69.2 RURAL 76.0 95.0 Ic 24.8 _IJPULATIOb PER PIIYSICKUN 15050.0 9160.0 1/ Z6810.0 Id 27477.8 11948.3 PCP. PER NURSI PERSO 100300 5120.0 4180.0 rd 3396.2 22M9 POP. PER R8SPITAL BED TOTAL 750.0 640.0 610.0 lc 1089.0 986.9 URBAN c0.0 80.0 100.0, ; 395.2 368.7 RRWAL 1710.0 1820.0 1600.0 Ic 3094.0 4012I Ab SSIOM PER HOSPITAL ED 154.1 _ AVERlAE SIZE OF HOUSEOLD TorAL . 4.8 URBAN RUAla .. AVERAGE go. OF PERSOXSIROGI TOrAL .. BN .. .. RUEAL .. ACCESS TO ELECT. (: of WELLIS) TOTAL .. .. UR .. RURAL .. .  -30 - ANNEX I TA3LE 3A PA7 2 of 5 WAA - SOCIAL INDYCATOM DATA S umma auinnavmggrqw UPS CWamIm AVENAGES Ia HOST (MlOST lREi(M CSmui) /b SW LOW INCO Ann saDDLE TcaD u 1960/b 1970Th CSTDIArEb SOuTH OF SHARA AFRICA S. Ofr SAHR ADJUSTED EROUJIENT RATIOS P11MUT: TOYAL 49.0 39.0 54.0 69.2 91.0 MALE 65.0 *8.0 62.0 78.8 90.5 FEUKAE 3Z.0 31.0 46.0 57.6 73.6 SECONDARY: TOT0. 3.0 4.0 5.0 13.1 17.4 MALE 4.0 6.0 7.0 17.6 23.7 FEMALE 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.3 14.8 VOCATIOXAL (S OF SECONDARY) 11.6 7.4 3.7 7.2 5.3 PUPIL-TEACHE RATIO PR11AKRY 31.0 34.0 34.0 46.1 38.6 SECONDARY 18.0 20.0 21.0 I& 25.9 24.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (E) 25.1 If *- 52.3 44.3 35.6 Cam PASSENE CARSTHOUSAND POP 3.5 3.0 * - 3.8 20.7 RADIO RECEIVERS/TIOUSAND POP 12.4 23.6 21.8 41.9 100.8 TV RECEtVERS/THOUSAND POP 0.1 1.4 5.8 /Er 2_0 18.5 NESPAPEIR ("DAMY GENERAL XNTERES-") CIRCULATION PER ThDUSAND POPULATION 7.3 es5 1.6 i 5.4 17.2 CLIIA ANNL AYTENDANCE/CAPITA 0.3 *- 0.1 /d 1.4 0.3 us .wm TOTAL LBOR FORCE (THOIS) 3255.0 4187.0 5427.0 FLNALE (PERCENT) 35.1 34.6 33.6 36.5 33.8 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 89.0 86.0 83.0 77.4 57.1 INDUSTRY (PEE}NT) 4.0 5.0 6.0 9.8 174 PARTCIPATION RATE (PERCNT) TOTAL 44*7 42.9 40.3 41.0 36.3 NAIE 58.8 56.8 5.1 52.1 47.6 MALE 31.0 29.3 26.9 30.2 25.1 ECONDEIC DEPESDENCr RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 Dmccc ouimnw PERCEST OF PRVATE NCOSE RECEIV ST HIGHEST 5: OF HOUSEHOLDS . 20.0 .. HCIGHEST 20S OF HOUSEROLDS 4 46.6 l. LOWEST 202 OF HOUSEHOLDS __ 6.2 I'' LOWEST 40: OF HOUSEHOLDS . 16.6 / . POQm TAN ano ESTITED ABSOLUTE POVERrY InUR LEVEL CUSS PER CAPITA) URBSAN . 168.3 525.3 RURAL 90.8 249.0 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY 2C.Wct LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBN 107.7 477.4 RURAL _ 87.0 /d 65.0 186.0 'a ESTLHATED POP. BELOW ABSOLUtE POTERTY LICG(E LEVEL (:) URBAN 34.7 RURAL 65 4 NOT AVAILEABL NOT APPLICABLE N D T E S /s The grouP averages for each indicator are populatinorwelbhted artthmtic means. Coverage of countries aong the indceators depends on availability of data and Is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted. sData for 1960' refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; 'Dnto for 1974 betwee 1969 an4 1971; and data for "Most Recent Estimte" betwSn 1979 and 1981. /c 1975; /d 1977; Ie Registered. not all practicing in the country; If Ages 16 and over: 1z 1979; lb African populatton only. JUNE, 1984  P 3 -)a410- .s A 33-n1. .ah.1~1 Sq a1.31-.np. I0~~4 PlO 11141 l. a-a -4a11-Ala.o)3 1 1f403130 0- *a3 -0*-I~*~~Al * 34 - -n 093 34 n 14 - 'S.04 3 333 333 * -pl-I- - s 1- ea~~~~a -3 1- -1 :-Ud ~ 30 --iela-i-Pd U1. _40 1 - 33 -3_lP OOjl 'eli Se* - e ~ A ,I . .6&-3a4 U-;1a A !d-P 4 a a-V, - n 33303611 .usA M.o L1i-1 "I",Ula - m.a ne