Malawi - Fifth Education Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ,-1LE COPY. I Report No. 4138-MAI STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT REPUBLIC OF MALAWI January 28, 1983 Education Projects Division Eastern Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Malawi Kwacha (MK) US$1.00 = HK 1.08 MK 1.00 = US$ 0.92 SDR 1.00 = US$ 1.10311 MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 square meter (m2) = 10.76 square feet (ft2) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.6214 mile (mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.471 acres (ac) ABBREVIATIONS EPD - Economic Planning Division of the Office of the President and Cabinet IPA - Institute of Public Administration JC - Junior Certificate MCA - Malawi College of Accountancy MCC - Malawi Correspondence College MCE - Malawi Certificate of Education MIE - Malawi Institute of Education MOE - Ministry of Education and Culture MOW - Ministry of Works PIU - Project Implementation Unit PSLC - Primary School Leaving Certificate PTTC - Primary T'eacher Training College REPUBLIC OF MALAWI FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT REPUBLIC OF MALAWI Table of Contents BASIC DATA PAGE No. I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER NEEDS Geographic and Socio-Economic Setting .......... ........... 1 Development Objectives and Trends ......................... 1 Manpower Situation and Needs . . ............................ 2 II. THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM Summary ........................... ...................... 3 Management of the Education System ......................... 3 Quality of Primary Education ........................... 4 Expansion of Secondary Education ........................... 6 Training of Mliddle and High Level Mlanpower ...... ........... 9 Financing of Education ................................... 10 Government Policies and Plans . ............................. 12 III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE, KNOWLEDGE, AND LENDING STRATEGY Past Experience and Lessons Learned ......... ............... 13 Bank Group Sector Knowledge ................................ 14 Bank Group Lending Strategy ............................... 15 IV. THE PROJECT Objectives ................................... 16 Primary Teacher Training ................................ 18 Correspondence Education ................................ 19 Secondary Education ................................... 20 Accountancy Education ................................... 21 Studies, Evaluation and Auditing .......... ............... 21 Female Participation in the Project ........ ............... 22 Monitoring of Education Financing .......... ................ 22 Summary of Technical Assistance and Training ................23 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visited Malawi in June 1982. The mission consisted of Mr. L. Wolff (Education Planner, mission leader), Ms. R. Brandenburg (Economist), Mr. K. Andersen (Architect, consultant), Mr. T. Derkx (Specialist in Non-formal Education, consultant), and Mr. P. Holzer (Specialist in Accountancy Education, consultant). The project was further discussed in the field in October 1982 by Mr. L. Wolff and Mrs. N. Shields (Economist). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  V. PROJECT COST AND FINAITCIAL PLAN PAGE No. Project Cost ... ..... .. .o.........eo.o.o..o...o. oooe.. 24 Financial Plan . . .. ............. ....o..........o.... 26 VI. IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND REPORTING Implementation .............I....................... 27 Procurement ......... .. ............................ 28 Disbursement .........................n......... 29 Reporting and Auditing .. . .. ....... ........ ... 29 VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits .......... ......... ...... 30 Risks ................. .o7....... .O...o.......... e...... 31 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION . ............ ..... 31 ANNEXES Annex 1. Supporting Tables and Charts Table 1. Higher Level Employment in Selected Occupations, 1979 Table 2. Forecast of High and Middle Level Manpower 1980-1990 Table 3. Comparative Education Indicators Table 4. Enrollments and Internal Efficiency in Primary Education, 1980-1990 Table 5. Primary School Enrollments and Teacher Needs, 1979-1990 Table 6. Secondary School Enrollments and Teacher Needs, 1979-1990 Table 7. Enrollment in the Malawi Correspondence College, 1975-1981 Table 8. Estimated Expenditures, Ministry of Education and Culture, 1980-1990 Table 9. Summary of Estimated Project Costs Table 10. Baseline Costs by Component Table 11. Estimated Project Costs by Category Table 12. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements Chart 1. Full-time Enrollment and Population Pyramid, 1980 Chart 2. Structure of the Formal Education System Chart 3. Organization of the Ministry of Education and Culture Chart 4. Implementation Schedule Annex 2. Key Indicators for Project Implementation Annex 3. Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File MAP -- IBRD No. 16689  REPUBLIC OF MALAWI BASIC DATA General Area (including lake) 118,000 sq.km Area (land only) 94,000 sq.km Population (1981) 6.1 million GNP Per Capita (1981) US$200 Annual Growth Rate of Population (1966-1977) 2.9% Education School Year October-August Adult Literacy Rate (1977) 25% Gross Enrollment Ratios (1981): Primary Education (6-13 age group) 62.0% Secondary Education (14-17 age group) 4.0% Higher Education 0.4% Central Government Expenditures on Education as Percentage of Total Government Expenditures (1981) Capital 11.9% Recurrent 11.2% Total 11.4% Total Ministry of Education Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP (1981) 3.5%   I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER NEEDS Geographic and Socio-Economic Setting 1.01 Malawi is a land-locked country in South Eastern Africa, bordered in the north and north-east by Tanzania, to the east, south, and south-west by Mozambique, and to the west by Zambia. It has a total area of about 118,000 km2 of which 24,000 km2 is lake surface. The land area consists of a central plateau, a mountainous northern region, southern low lands, and the lake shore districts. Malawi's main physical assets are moderately fertile soils, adequate water resources, and a climate favorable to a wide range of agricultural products, including tobacco, sugar cane, and cotton. Malawi's population, which was estimated to be about 6.1 million in mid-1981, grew at a rate of 2.9% from 1966-77 and population growth is now estimated at 3.4% p.a. With an average density of 59 persons per km2 of land area, Malawi is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa. However, the population is scattered and only 10% live in urban areas. 1.02 Malawi's GDP per capita in 1981 was estimated at US$200 equivalent. Between 1969 and 1979, Malawi made considerable economic progress and real GDP grew at an average of 5.5% p.a. However, in 1980, the economy of Malawi experienced a sharp break with past trends. Rates of growth in 1980 and 1981 are estimated at 0.2% and 0.9% respectively, resulting in decreases in per capita income. The economy has remained highly vulnerable to international price fluctuations, especially those of its two primary export commodities, tea and tobacco. Since 1978 the country's balance of payments situation has deteriorated, principally because of declines in commodity prices and a doubling of the fuel import bill. Transport difficulties through the Mozambique ports which serve Malawi have also slowed GDP growth. In response to this situation, in early 1982 the Government introduced short term demand management measures, including revenue increases and restraints on recurrent and capital expenditures. Development Objectives and Trends 1.03 The Statement of Development Policies 1971-1980 set out the Government's basic priorities for development and provided a framework for long-term development planning. The Government has not prepared a development statement for the 1980's similar to that of the 1970's but has produced rolling five year development plans concentrated on capital investments. Recently the Government prepared informal documents providing revenue and recurrent cost projections. These documents envisaged an average rate of growth in real GDP of 4.8% p.a. through 1985, lower than the 6.5% rate recorded throughout the 1960's and 1970's. The Government has since revised downward its projections and now expects 3% p.a. growth in GDP through 1985, resulting in a stagnation of per capita income. During this period the Government plans to hold the current account deficits at manageable levels through diversification and acceleration of agricultural export growth and improvement in the financial performance of the Government and para-statal enterprises.  -2- Manpower Situation and Needs 1.04 Employment. Reliable data concerning employment and earnings in Malawi are available only for the formal sector of the economy, which accounts for little more than 10% of the total labor force. Preliminary estimates indicate that the volume of paid employment increased from about 339,000 in 1978 to only about 365,000 in 1981, a result of the overall slowdown in GDP growth. In 1980, it was estimated that some 14,000 Malawian workers were employed in the mines in the Republic of South Africa, in contrast to the 123,000 a year in the early 1970's. Remittances from these workers represent a significant source of foreign exchange receipts. 1.05 Manpower Requirements. At the time of independence in 1962, given the small number of citizens with post primary education, there was an urgent need to train the essential middle and higher level manpower required to take effective control of the economy. Priority was given to establishing higher educational institutions and expanding secondary school capacity. The 1971 Manpower Survey forecast the manpower requirements for the period ending in 1980. Subsequently, the "Educational Plan for Malawi 1973-1980" set broad goals for the development of the educational system during the 1970's. However, the ambitious growth objectives of the plan were not met. As a result of a combination of slow growth of the education system and rapid economic growth, the output from both secondary and higher education now falls far short of 1he manpower needs of the economy. Unlike the situation in some Eastern Afr:ican countries, graduates of secondary and tertiary educational institutions enjoy nearly full employment and the rate of return to investment in secondary education is reported to be high. 1.06 To enable the Government to plan its human resource development strategy for the 1980's, a new Manpower Survey was undertaken in 1979. This survey showed that Malawi continues to be dependent on expatriates for high and middle level positionas. Although the number of expatriates in relation to total employment in the modern sector is only 5%, their impact on the economy is considerable since they hold many decision-making positions. Expatriates are often employed because local candidates lack the relevant training and experience for vacant positions. With regard to particular occupations, 43% of alL administrators and managers, 39% of all architects and engineers, 57% of all accountants and auditors, and 20% of all farm managers are expatriates (Annex 1, T-1). 1.07 It is noteworthy that the percentage of expatriate accountants and auditors is higher than that for any other professional category. Of 712 accountants and auditors employed in Malawi, 408 were expatriates. Interviews held with general managers, financial executives and chief accountants of fifteen of the largest parastatal and private companies revealed that in only two firms was the chief accounting officer a Malawian national. The shortage of qualified Malawians is also acute in Government service. Most key accounting positions in the ministries are held by expatriate accountants. In the Auditor General's Office, roughly 50% of the positions for qualified auditors are vacant. The six trained auditors are inadequate to meet Government needs and only five of the eighteen  -3- assistant auditors have diploma level training in accounting. The cost of employing expatriate accountants in Malawi is estimated at two to three times that of employing equally qualified Malawians. 1.08 The shortages of middle and higher level personnel will persist through the 1980's. Bank staff have estimated that, even on the basis of reduced GDP growth rates, the shortfall of trained persons by 1990 is expected to be about 4,900 for those with post-secondary training, 5,300 for those with secondary level training, and 12,500 for those with junior secondary level training (Annex 1, T-2.). If the economy improves after 1985 these shortages would more than double at the upper secondary and higher levels. A partial solution to the problem, especially at higher levels, could be employment of more expatriates. Apart from its high cost, this policy would contravene the Government's policy of reducing its dependence on expatriates. Further expansion of secondary and higher education beyond the planned increases is possible, especially if certain cost saving measures are taken, but high capital and recurrent costs and other competing demands on the Government's budget will limit these increases. The Government's development plans are therefore likely to continue to be hindered by a lack of appropriately trained manpower. II. THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM Summary 2.01 The underdeveloped education system in Malawi continues to be one of the principal constraints to economic and social development. Enrollment in primary education in 1981 was equal to only 62% of the school age population, and only 23% of children who enter primary school complete the eight year primary school course (Annex 1, C-1 and C-2). Only 4% of school age children are attending secondary schools, a figure which is among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa (Annex 1, T-3) and which is entirely inadequate to meet projected manpower needs (para. 1.08). The output of agricultural, industrial, commercial, and accounting technicians falls short of manpower needs. Given competing demands from other sectors as well as present economic difficulties, it will be difficult for the Government to finance adequately the expansion and improvement of the education system needed to meet manpower needs (para. 2.32). Management of the Education System 2.02 The Ministry of Education and Culture (MOE) is responsible for the formal education system as a whole and directly administers primary, secondary, technical, and correspondence education (Annex 1, C-3). It is also officially responsible for a number of autonomous agencies, including the University of Malawi, the Malawi Institute of Education (MIE), the Malawi College of Accountancy (MCA), the Malawi Certificate of Education and Testing Board, the Malawi Book Service, and the National Library Service. The MOE has representation on the boards of these institutions  -4- but has no direct control over their budget or internal activities. Coordination between the MOE and these institutions is generally, however, satisfactory. 2.03 The MOE is divided into academic, administrative, accounting, and personnel units. A planning unit reports directly to the Principal Secretary. The number of senior staff is too small to cope with other than day-to-day administration and planning tasks, and some of the more experienced staff have recently been promoted to high positions in other ministries. The weak technical capacity in the MOE is similar to that of other government ministries. 2.04 Under the Third and Fourth Education Projects (Credits 910-MAI and 1123-MAI), the MOE is now being assisted in the areas of evaluation and educational planning. With this assistance, the MOE is preparing a National Education Plan, which will review progress made in education to 1982 and project growth and change in the education system through 1990. The Plan, to be completed by mid-1983, is expected to pay particular attention to meeting needs for trained manpower, financial implications of growth of the education system, teacher requirements, and needs for improvement of the organization of the education system. The Economic Planning Division of the Office of the President and Cabinet (EPD) is responsible for coordinating preparation of the plan. 2.05 In order to study and systematically improve the quality of education, the Government in 1979 established the MIE, which is responsbile for curriculum, textbook, and teaching aids development, for in-service training, and for research and evaluation. The MIE initiated activities in 1982 with a restricted recurrent budget. The EEC has agreed to provide about K600,000 in financial aid to the MIE (para. 2.10). With these and local funds, the MIE will concentrate on in-service training of teachers, headmasters, and school inspectors at the primary level. The MIE benefits from UNDP/Unesco technical assistance and is actively recruiting qualified Malawians for key posts. Quality of Primary Education 2.06 Primary education is the weakest element of the education system and must be improved in the future as a means of raising farmer and worker productivity and serving as a base for further education and essential skill training. Enrollment has increased significantly from 430,000 in 1971-72 to over 800,000 in 1980-81 but still represents only 62% of the school age population. Repeater and dropout rates remain high and only 23% of entering students complete primary education (Annex 1, T-4). With Bank support, the MIE is expected to study the causes of high dropout and repeater rates in Malawi. In other countries poor efficiency has been shown to be a result of poor school quality (e.g., lack of textbooks, high student teacher ratios, lack of trained teachers, lack of facilities within walking distance). In addition, children of poor as well as illiterate parents have been found to be more likely to drop out of primary school. As enrollment rates increase, less able children enter the school system and thus depress pass rates until 100% enrollment is reached.  -5- 2.07 Teachers. While detailed research evidence is not available, the most critical need for improved quality in Malawi is clearly the need for additional trained teachers. The student teacher ratio has deteriorated from 50:1 in 1971-72 to 65:1 in 1980-81, which is among the highest ratios in the world. Only 63% of the 12,500 primary school teachers are qualified and the the output of the five teacher training colleges is inadequate to meet present needs even at a 65:1 student teacher ratio. Assuming growth of the primary school system at 4.6% per year for at least the next ten years and modest improvements in the student teacher ratio to 60:1, total annual output should increase to at least 1,900 by 1990 (Annex 1, T-5). The existing shortage of teachers has been made worse by the lack of capacity in the MOE to provide large scale upgrading courses to untrained teachers, and until recently, difficulties in attracting teacher trainees because of the shortage of secondary school graduates. 2.08 At present there are three 540 place colleges located in the cities of Blantyre, Lilongwe, and 21zuzu, one aided teacher training college (St. Joseph's Teacher Training College) located in the Dedza district (Central Region), enrolling 120 girls, and one aided college in Blantyre, enrolling 120 students, most of whom are trained for education of the handicapped. Output of these colleges was 773 in 1981 but is expected to increase to 960 with full utilization of facilities. The colleges are generally well managed. The majority of teachers are Malawians with diploma level certificates. 2.09 The teacher training program in these institutions consists of two years of academic and pedagogical training, including about six weeks of supervised practice teaching in nearby primary schools. Two types of certificates are awarded, the T-3 certificate, which is awarded to those who enter the colleges after completing junior secondary school, and the T-2 certificate, which is awarded to those who have completed senior secondary school before attending the teacher training colleges. While T-2 students have a better academic background, they are more likely than T-3 students to leave the profession as other job opportunities arise. However, overall students appear motivated to enter the teaching profession despite low salaries and difficult working conditions. In 1980-81, 70% of enrollment vas at the T-3 level. The curriculum in some subjects replicates the regular upper secondary curriculum and could be improved. Assistance from Unesco and the British Council is being provided to revise the school curriculum so that it focuses more on the needs of primary school children. 2.10 Over the past few years, about 100 untrained teachers per year were upgraded in special short courses. With the establishment of the MIIE, these courses will expand. The MIE is planning to concentrate its activities on improving the skills of untrained teachers as well as providing training to primary school headmasters and school supervisors. To reach large numbers of teachers, the MIE will utilize the teacher training colleges and staff during vacation periods. A grant from the EEC (para. 2.05) will finance the program through 1987 and adequate technical assistance will be provided from UNDP/Unesco and the British Council.  --6- 2.11 Phvsical Facilities. In addition to the acute shortage of teachers, the physical facilities of the primary education system are inadequate for the implementation of the educational curriculum. Many buildings are decaying and in danger of collapse, and most schools have little or no furniture or equipment. While in the past construction of school facilities has been left to the communities, under the Third Education Project the Central Government is now supporting a program to construct 1000 primary school classrooms. Under this program, the local community provides fired bricks, sand, stones and unskilled labor. The Development Division of the Office of the President and Cabinet, through the district commissioners, provides supervision and skilled labor, and the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) provides materials and additional supervision. Even when complete, total facilities provided under this program will meet less than 20% of the needs for primary school facilities. If the program is successful in providing facilities which are economical in cost, the Government is expected to request further Bank Group assistance for its continuation. 2.12 Textbooks. The situation with regard to textbooks has improved since 1978. Until that time, textbooks and teaching materials were purchased by local authorities through student fees, which varied from K2.00 to K6.50 depending on grade and whether the school was located in an urban or rural area. The result of this policy was that basic textbooks in language and mathematics were provided to only one-third to one-half of all children and very little additional supplies were available. With Bank Group assistance (Third Education Project), the Government is now providing English, Chichewa, and mathematics textbooks, published with more durable covers and binding, to all primary school children. The school fees collected are now used for purchase of additional textbooks as well as for furniture and equipment. In anticipaLtion of the end of IDA support for this program by December, 1982, the Government has increased school fees to ensure continued purchase of basic textbooks (para. 2.31). These fees will have to be increased with inflation to ensure an adequate future supply of textbooks. Expansion of Secondary Education 2.13 After independence in 1962, enrollment in secondary education increased rapidly from 3,100 to 13,400 in 1972. Since 1972, enrollment in secondary education has grown at an average rate of only 3.7% per annum, reaching 17,900 in 1980. This represents about 4% of the school age population, and is among the lowest percentages in the world. Output of secondary school graduates is inadequate to meet labor market needs (para. 1.08). Low enrollment in secondary education has also affected the entire education system. At the primary level, almost half the enrollment in the eighth grade consists of children repeating the year in order to get higher scores on the Primary School Leaving Certificate (PSLC) and hopefully to secure a place in secondary schools. The primary teacher training colleges have had difficulty recruiting secondary school students 'or their courses and higher education has been unable to expand as rapidly as planned.  -7- 2.14 The MOE has recognized the need for expansion of secondary education to meet manpower needs and is proposing to increase enrollment to 28,000 by 1990. The Fourth Education Project (Credit No. 1123-MAI) is providing funds for an additional 3,960 student places, or about 40% of the 1990 enrollment goals. However, the capital cost per student place for a full boarding secondary school is about US$10,000, and an additional 6,000 student places would therefore cost about US$60 millon in 1982 dollars. Before proceeding with this expansion, the Government is planning to consider less costly means of expanding secondary education (para. 2.29). The Government is also planning to expand the Malawi Correspondence College, which provides a lower cost alternative to traditional secondary education (para. 2.18). 2.15 The qualitative aspects of secondary education are in general satisfactory or in the process of being improved. About 84% of entering secondary students pass the Junior Certificate (JC) examination and 51% of students who enter senior secondary schools pass the School Certificate examination. The rates have remained relatively stable over the past ten years. 2.16 The secondary school curriculum emphasizes language arts, science, and mathematics. The introduction of technical subjects, including metal work and wood work, into the curriculum has not proved fully satisfactory because of high operational costs, lack of student interest, and teacher shortages. As a result the MOE is not expanding teaching of these subjects. In home economics, teacher supply, student interest, and examination results have been satisfactory. Malawi's mixed experience with a diversified curriculum is similar to that of a number of other developing countries. 2.17 Over 90% of the 800 secondary school teachers are qualified, holding either degrees or diplomas. However 200 of the qualified teachers are expatriates. From 1973 to 1979 the output of secondary school teachers from Chancellor College of the University of Malawi declined because of neglect of the teacher training function by Chancellor College authorities as well as student interest in higher paying jobs in the civil service and in industry. Since 1978, at the initiative of the MOE, Chancellor College has introduced accelerated training programs to qualify primary school teachers to teach at the secondary level and to enable older students who have temporarily stopped their schooling to obtain degrees as science teachers. With Bank Group assistance, Chancellor College expects to enroll 450 students in its secondary teacher training programs by 1985 and to produce about 125 teachers per year, which would be adequate to meet needs (Annex 1, T-6). Under the Fourth Education Project, the College is annually reviewing its teacher training program. Based on the results of these reviews over the next two years, the college may need to establish selection criteria and regulations which encourage more students to choose the teaching program.  -8- 2.18 The Malawi Correspondence Colleae (MCC). The MCC was established in 1965 and has grown to an impressive orgarization of over 100 staff, broadcasting 15 hours of radio Programs per week, and provJding correspondence materials and correcting tests for more than 8;000 students per year (Annex 1, T-7). Mcre than 75.% of MCC students are enrolled at the junior secondary level, 20% are enrolled in the senior secondary level, and 5% are in primary level and primary teacher certificate equivalency programs. The MCC secondary schoo:L program is undertaken in 72 centers and 18 "night" schools. The centers provide full-time classroom accomodation to secondary level students for up to six hours a day. The only entrance requirement is to have a primary school leaving certificate and to pay a fee of K30 for correspondence materials. M<ost classes take place in makeshift premises, with virtually no equipment. The night schools are located on the premises of regular secondary schools in which secondary school teachers teach 1MCC students from about 3 to 6 P.M. in the afternoon. Students in both centers and night schools prepare for regular junior and senior secondary school examinations with the assistance of detailed study materials) correspondence material, and supplemental radio programs. Nearly all the 1MCC center teachers have only primary teaching certificates but have been selected by local supervisors on the basis of their skills and interest. 2.19 Enrollment in the M4CC at the junior secondary level of 6,400 students is one-third of the enrol:Lment of regular junior secondary schools. In 1981, 10.9% of all MCC students taking the JC examination passed six subjects (the minimum required to receive the Junior Certificate) in one sitting. An additional 11.5% passed six subjects after two or more sittings for the examination. The figure of 22.4% is low compared with the pass rate of 85% among regular secondary school students who took the JC examination. Howevier, all MCC students are "failures" who are unable to enter regular secondary schools and who have found a second chance through the MCC system; MCC teachers are generally not qualified for secondary school teaching and MCC facilities are very poor. Given these handicaps, the MCC pass rates are satisfactory and are better than most correspondence programs in Africa. With MOE encouragement and improved facilities, enrollment increased 35% from 1980 to 1981. This increase shows that students recognize the 11CC as a viable alternative to formal secondary education. 2.20 The cost per student place in the MCC (JC program) is about K56 per year, compared to K263 per year for regular secondary schools. After taking into account that 85% of students in regular secondary schools pass the JC examination compared to 22% for MCC students, the cost per graduate of the MCC is about K452 compared to K618 per graduate of regular secondary schools. Therefore, both the cost per year and the cost per graduate of the MCC are lower than the corresponding costs of regular secondary schools.  -9- 2.21 Despite its relatively good showing, the MCC could improve its efficiency significantly. MCC center teachers receive no special training and many are unaware of the different pedagogy needed for correspondence programs. With the exception of centers recently constructed under the Third Education Project, most centers are located in inadequate buildings, with no equipment, little furniture, and no books other than the correspondence materials provided by the MCC. The existing MCC staff, while dedicated and competent, requires in-service training in areas such as graphic arts, radio programing, management, and evaluation. The MCC employs only two subject specialists at present, and course materials are not regularly revised. Headquarters facilities are inadequate and should be expanded. In order to further improve its efficiency, the MCC is considering phasing out its primary and teacher training programs and increasing fees to about K50 to cover the full cost of materials. Training of Middle and High Level Manpower 2.22 Five technical schools train skilled workers in areas such as bricklaying, carpentry, electricity, and mechanics. These programs, enrolling about 900 persons per year, are adequately staffed. With assistance from the British Overseas Development Administration, they will be expanded to keep pace with economic growth in the 1980's. The principal commercial education institutions are the Polytechnic and a number of private schools. To improve quality and expand output, the MOE is planning to introduce commercial education to three technical schools. With assistance from the Canadian International Development Agency, the Government is constructing a multi-purpose Natural Resources College with expected output of 380 agricultural and other technicians per year, which would be sufficient to meet manpower needs for agriculture, livestock, and fisheries development. The Ministries of Natural Resources, Forestry and Health have additional schools training specialized forestry, fisheries, livestock, and health technicians. 2.23 After a period of little or no growth, enrollment in higher education is expanding significantly to meet demonstrated manpower needs. The Polytechnic, which trains engineers, technicians and business managers, is increasing enrollment from 350 in 1978 to a planned 700 by 1985. Chancellor College is expanding enrollment in arts and sciences and secondary teacher training from 600 in 1978 to at least 1,050 by 1985, and hopes to increase enrollment to 1,200, with emphasis on arts and humanities, providing investment funds can be found. Output of secondary school teachers is increasing to meet needs through 1990 (para. 2.17). 2.24 With regard to civil service training, in 1980 Mpemba Staff Training College enrolled 500 civil servants in clerical, secretarial and bookkeeping subjects. At higher levels, Chancellor College trained 30 students in public administration but had difficulty placing these students in Government service. Chancellor College is now planning to cut back on new enrollees and expand its in-service training programs. In 1979, the Government proposed establishment of a new Institute of Public Administration (IPA) in Lilongwe, which would be responsible for in-service  -10- training of middle and higher level civil servants. A study identified significant training needs and recommended that an IPA be established to provide induction courses for recent entrants to the civil service, in-service courses for those who had been employed for some time, and other ad-hoc courses according to needs. Funds for design work for the IPA were included in the Fourth Education Project. However, Government officials, who have been concerned by its possible high recurrent costs, are no longer considering construction of the IPA as a high priority. Given Malawi's present economic difficulties, it is more appropriate to utilize existing facilities, especially those at Chancellor College and Mpemba Staff Training College, and to provide ad-hoc vacation time training courses. 2.25 Accounting Education. As noted above (para. 1.07), the 1979 Manpower Survey showed that of 712 accountants and auditors employed in Malawi, 408, or 57%, were expatriates and shortages of accountants are expected to grow over the next decade. In recognition of these shortages, the Malawi College of Accountancy (MCA) was established in 1979 with the assistance of the ILO. The MCA is housed in temporary quarters in a secondary school in Blantyre and in an office building in Lilongwe. Up to now the MICA has not attracted well qualified students, many of whom have failed the end of year examinations and dropped out. 2.26 With its transfer in 1981 to the MOE from the Ministry of Labor, the MCA initiated action to improve its program through a revised curriculum, improved facilities, and efforts to attract better qualified students. The- MCA is now staffed by a Malawian acting principal, four specialists provided under an ILO/UNDP program, and two Malawian staff members. The MCA's proposed new curriculum reduces its part time study courses and provides for courses of at least one semester of full time study alternating with periods of on--the-job training with participating firms and institutions. The proposal is well adapted to the Malawian environment and is expected to gain widespread business support. Eventually the program will enroll about 215 students and annually graduate approximately 110 "accounting technicians", who would complete one year courses of study, and about 30 certified public accountants who would alternate full time study with employment over a three to five year period. 2.27 A prerequisite for implementation of its new programs is the establishment of permanent facilities as well as residential quarters for staff and full-time students (para 4.15). The proposed permanent location of the MCA would be on the grounds of the Malawi Polytechnic in Malawi, which, among other subjects, provides accountancy courses to its business students. This location would ensure coordination of programs, sharing of staff, and common use of library and computer facilities. Financing of Education 2.28 Total public education expenditures in Malawi in 1981-1982 represent about 3.5% of GDP. This percentage is lower than most sub-Saharan African countries and reflects the Government's policy of placing relatively greater emphasis on sectors of the economy such as agriculture and infrastructure. In 1981-1982, the MOE's recurrent budget  -11- was 11.2% of the Government's overall budget (Annex 1, T-8). This percentage is significantly lower than the figure of 17% in 1970-71 and is lower than that of most African countries. In 1981-82, capital expenditures on education increased significantly from the previous year and amounted to 11.9% of the capital budget. Most of this increase is related to Bank Group financed education projects. 2.29 The recurrent unit cost for primary education is a very low K13.60 per student. The 65:1 primary student teacher ratio, which is among the highest in the world, accounts for the low unit cost. The Government realizes that inadequate funds are allocated to primary education and intends to increase its allocation significantly over the next five years. In 1981-82, the recurrent unit cost to the Government for secondary education was K235, an amount which is in line with the costs of boarding secondary schools in other African countries. The Government is now considering a number of options to control secondary education costs. One possibility, that of reducing the percentage of boarding places, would lower both capital and recurrent costs. Up to now MOE's experience in this area has not been successful since the "day" secondary schools draw from too wide a catchment area to permit local commuting. The MOE is now planning to study the feasibility of establishing smaller secondary schools to draw from neighboring catchment areas (para. 4.18). The MOE is also expected to reconsider its policy, originally designed to foster national unity, of assigning many students to schools outside their home district, since this policy has the effect of increasing needs for boarding places. 2.30 In 1981-82, the unit cost for higher education was K3,716. While this amount is no higher than other African countries, there is considerable scope for savings. A study of the cost-efficiency of post-primary education financed under the Fourth Education Project has provided information on a number of areas for possible cost reduction at the University of Malawi, including (a) increases in student teacher ratios in some departments; (b) elimination of some departments with very low enrollments; (c) elimination of allowances of K12 per month provided to all students; and (d) better control of transport and travel costs, which presently account for 10% of the University's total budget. Government officials have been seriously concerned about the costs of higher education and are currently reviewing the report. 2.31 Cost Recovery. Unlike most African countries, Malawi charges fees for primary, secondary, and correspondence education. At the primary level, fees were increased for the 1982-83 school year and are now K5.00 in urban areas and K3.00 in rural areas for grades 1 through 5, and K7.50 in urban areas and K4.00 in rural areas for grades 6 through 8. The fees are used principally for purchase of textbooks, equipment and consumable materials and are equivalent to about 19% of expenditure on primary education. At the secondary level the Government charges K25 for "tuition", and recently increased its boarding fees to K60 in "boarding" schools and K75 in "day" schools (most of which are now boarding). Secondary school fees are now equivalent to about 25% of expenditures on secondary education. The Government charges K30 for enrollment in the Malawi Correspondence College (MCC), which is equivalent to about 24% of  -12- expenditure on the MCC. At the higher education level, as noted above, no fees are charged and students receive a monthly stipend of K12. Similarly primary teacher training students receive a monthly stipend of K6. 2.32 Overall Malawi recovers a large percentage of costs in primary, secondary and correspondence education. Given Malawi's present difficult financial situation, fees should be increased in accordance with inflation and should at least remain at the present percentage of total costs. The Government is committed in principle to this policy. In addition, the Government is considering increasing fees in the "boarding" secondary schools, as well as increasing fees for the MCC to cover the costs of providing educational materials, and is also reviewing its policy of providing stipends to higher education students. 2.33 Annex 1, T-8 provides estimates of enrollment and costs of education through 1990. Enrollment growth through 1990 is projected on the basis of current Government policies. Unit costs of primary education are projected to increase at 1% p.a. through 1985-86 and at 4% p.a. to 1990-91, on the assumption that the Government will train and hire additional primary school teachers. Unit costs of higher education are projected to decrease to K3,500 by 1985-86, through the adoption of various cost-saving measures described above, and thereafter to increase at 2% p.a. Unit costs of other educational levels are projected to remain constant in real terms through 1985-86 and thereafter to increase by 2% p.a. On the basis of these assumptions the education sector's share of the recurrent budget would rise from 11.2% in 1981-82 to 13.8% in 1985-86 and 16.6% in 1990-91. This level of expenditure is the minimum required to provide for increases in enrollment and to maintain the quality of the system and at the same time is not expected to greatly tax Malawi's financial resources. Recommended cost saving and cost-recovery measures are modest since, with the exception of the University of Malawi, the education system is operated relatively efficiently, and, again, except for higher education, Malawi recovers a large percentage of its education costs. The EPD has prepared estimates of recurrent expenditures through 1986-87 which are roughly in line with the above projections but which require continued discussion and review (para. 4.21). Overall Government officials are well aware of needs to increase significantly both enrollments and expenditures while simultaneously controlling unit costs and are expected to continue their close scrutiny of the education budget. Government Policies and Plans 2.34 As a result of a deliberate Government policy of giving higher priority to agriculture and infrastructure, the development of the education system has lagged behind that of the other sectors and of most other Sub-Saharan African countries. In the last five years, however, the Government's policy has changed. Today, over 10% of the Government?s capital budget is allocated to education and the highest authorities are aware of needs for major expansion of secondary and higher education. Nonetheless the Government's serious financial constraints have led to deterioration of student teacher ratios at the primary level, as well as  -13- restraints on expansion of the education system. The Government is now committed to a major program to expand primary teacher training colleges and thus end deterioration at the primary level. Other major Government priorities are to expand secondary and correspondence education, as well as agricultural, commercial, technical, and accountancy training, in accordance with manpower needs, and to strengthen management of education through curriculum development and improved educational planning. The Government has become acutely aware of the need to control costs while ensuring adequate growth of the education system. The actions taken over the last year in cost control and cost recovery are major steps in the right direction. Overall the Government's policy and plans in education are appropriate. However, they must now be more fully articulated in the National Education Plan currently under preparation, in order to ensure full committment to a set of realistic goals for the 1983-1990 period. III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE, KNOWLEDGE, AND LENDING STRATEGY Past Experience and Lessons Learned 3.01 The Bank Group has financed four education projects in Malawi and is now the major lender to Malawi of funds to improve education and training. The First Education Project (Credit 102-MAI, signed in 1967) provided US$6.3 million equivalent to expand secondary education to meet manpower needs, to introduce technical subjects in secondary schools, and to establish a new primary teacher training college in Lilongwe. A Project Performance Audit (No. 2914) was completed in March, 1980. The Second Education Project (Credit 590-MAI, signed in 1975) provided US$11.6 million equivalent to establish a new primary teacher training college in Mzuzu, to expand secondary education, principally through provision of additional places for girls, and to establish 23 model primary schools which would also serve as rural adult centers. A project completion report dated September 21, 1982 has been distributed. 3.02 Evaluation of these two completed projects indicates, inter alia, good success in assisting in the establishment of the two new primary teacher training colleges. These two institutions are well managed, and they are adequately meeting their educational goals of training primary school teachers. At the secondary level, implementation of the First and Second Projects has resulted in enrollment increases as planned and the secondary schools are also well managed. The introduction of technical subjects, especially wood and metal work, into these schools has not been fully satisfactory because of high recurrent costs, lack of specialized teachers, and lack of student interest. Because of these problems, the MOE is no longer introducing technical subjects into general secondary schools and is concentrating on expanding the specialized technical schools. In primary education, the experience of the Second Education Project has shown that it is difficult to utilize primary schools as adult learning centers, and these schools would best be used solely for the primary level. In addition, it was found that a management system and supervision of local building teams were needed before communities could be expected to assist in replicating the model schools through self-help construction. Overall  -14- the Government regularly allocates funds for maintenance of Government institutions, and project schools have been found to be adequately maintained. 3.03 The Third Education Project (Credit 910-MAI and EEC Credit 12-MAI, signed in 1979 and totalling IJS$22.0 million) expands and broadens the Bank Group's involvement in educational development. It is designed to improve (a) primary education, through self-help construction of 1000 primary school classrooms and provision of textbooks to primary school children; (b) educational management, through establishment of the Malawi Institute of Education (MIE), provision of vehicles for the school inspectorate, and support for various educational studies and evaluation; and (c) training of essential middle 'Level manpower, through expansion of the MCC and of the Chancellor College secondary teacher training program, as well as through modest expansion of agricultural, commercial, and general secondary education. The MIE has begun initial operations and facilities for Chancellor College and the MCC are nearly complete. Management and organization problems, particularly at the local level, continue to slow implementation of the self-help primary school construction program. In addition, because of late arrival of technical assistance, the program of studies ancL evaluation is just beginning. Overall implementation of this project is proceeding satisfactorily and it is expected to be completed by the original Closing Date of June 30, 1984. 3.04 At the time of appraisal of the Third Education Project, the Government was not committed to secondary school expansion on the grounds that additional secondary school teachers needed to be trained and that there was a possibility of unemployment of secondary school leavers. By the time of appraisal of the Fourth Education Project, it was clear that secondary school expansion was the highest priority. Accordingly, the Fourth Education Project (Credit 1123-MAI, signed May, 1981 for US$41.0 million equivalent) provides for 3,960 new secondary student places and for further expansion of Chancellor College's secondary teacher training program. The project also includes pre-investment studies for a new IPA and a new primary teacher training college, as well as funds to prepare a National Education Plan. A delay of about one year in obtaining the necessary technical assistance for preparation of the National Education Plan was experienced. Otherwise the implementation of the project is proceeding satisfactorily. Bank Group Sector Knowledge 3.05 The Bank Group's knowledge of Malawi's education sector has increased considerably in the last seven years, not only through project work but also through economic and sector analysis. In 1978 Bank Group staff completed an in-depth "Education Sector Survey" (Report No. 1781-MAI). In 1980, Bank Group staff completed "An Analysis of Malawi's 1979 Manpower Survey", which summarizes labor market shortages and projects labor force needs and supply to 1990, and "The Evaluation of Human Capital in Malawi" (Staff Working Paper No. 420), which measures inputs to primary education, achievement of primary students, and economic returns to secondary education. In 1981 Bank staff completed another education sector memorandum (Report No. 367-MAI, dated October 28, 1981), summarizing main issues in the sector. Bank Group consultants have also recently reviewed needs for training of civil servants and accountants and for improving the MCC.  -15- 3.06 Overall the Bank Group's knowledge of primary, secondary, and higher education, and financing and management of the education system is good. Bank Group knowledge of specialized training programs in the areas of civil service, accountancy, and agricultural training is also good. In order to strengthen further its sector knowledge, the Bank Group, as a part of its FY 1983 sector work program, is undertaking a study of the financing and efficiency of the education system, which will synthesize numerous ongoing and recently completed studies, and expects to study project related training in FY 1985. Bank Group Lending Strategy 3.07 With the signing of the Third and Fourth Education Project Development Credit Agreements in 1979 and 1981, the Bank Group became the major lender for improvements of general primary and secondary education. These are the areas where, because of past involvement and experience gained regarding physical and institutional development, the Bank Group has a comparative advantage over other agencies that have specialized in the provision of financial and technical support to manpower training institutions. The Bank Group's large scale sector involvement is now accompanied by the studies and analysis required to make the system more cost-effective and appropriate to Malawi's economic and social development. This focus should be continued. 3.08 The most critical issue in education at this time is the lack of trained primary school teachers. The highest priority, therefore, is to end the deterioration in the primary student teacher ratio through the establishment of over 1,500 new teacher training places. There are also clearcut needs for additional primary school classrooms; however, further assistance should await the results of the evaluation of the self-help construction program in the Third Education Project. Malawi also needs desperately to expand the output of its secondary school system to meet basic manpower needs, and the 3,960 places to be provided under the Fourth Education Project will meet less than 40% of needs to 1990 even for a modest 5% yearly increase in enrollment. Future support for general secondary education is therefore essential. However, the policy of full boarding and staff housing requires an in-depth review in the light of the Government's fiscal constraints. Additional support for general secondary education should be held in abeyance pending completion of this review. 3.09 As noted above (para. 3.03), the Third Education Project supported improvement of MCC headquarters. A detailed review of the MCC shows that, while it is already a viable alternative to secondary education, assistance is required for establishment of additional centers, for training and technical assistance, and for further expansion of headquarters facilities. This support would be expected to improve the MCC's efficiency and therefore enable more students to pass the JC examination at a lower capital and recurrent cost than that of assistance to boarding secondary schools.  -16- 3.10 Because of the involvement of other agencies, the Bank expects to provide only minimum support for programs in areas such as agriculture, business and vocational training (para. 3.07). However, needs for accountants are well documented, the prerequisites for a good accountancy program have now been established, and no agency other than UNDP/ILO, for a limited time, is offering assistance. The Bank Group should therefore provide support for the MCA and should also supplement ILO's technical assistance. 3.11 Under the Third and Fourth Education Projects, Chancellor College received support permitting it to expand enrollment from 600 in 1978 to an expected 1,050 by 1985. The University has requested support for an additional 150 students in the arts and humanities. While further expansion can be justified by overa:ll manpower needs, it is unclear whether the University's plan to establish an arts and humanities complex is appropriate, and further assistance should await careful evaluation of this proposal. Although establishment of a new IPA does not appear to be justified, the Bank Group expects to continue to review needs for management training and will consider possible future support. 3.12 After some difficulties in the early and mid-seventies, the Bank Group's dialogue with the Government has improved to the point where regular consultation has been established on the improvement of the education system. Bank Group staff have built on this relationship through an- active program of collaboration, assistance, and sector work. This relationship is expected to continue, especially in the areas of educational planning, finance, teacher training, and school construction, through close supervision as well as a significant sector work program. IV. THE PROJECT Objectives 4.01 The proposed project, which is designed to meet Malawi's most pressing needs for trained manpower, has four main objectives: (a) to improve the quality of primary education; (b) to expand the output of secondary level institutions as a means of providing essential middle level manpower; (c) to increase the numbers of trained accountants and accounting technicians; and (d) to strengthen management of the education, training, and auditing systems.  -17- 4.02 The objectives of the project would be addressed as follows: Level and Principal Objective Item Beneficiaries Primary Education Improved quality Establishment of three new 780 new teachers to be and efficiency primary teacher training trained per year in two colleges, expansion of one year programs; each year existing college, and train- these new graduates ing of teacher trainers would teach an addition- al 46,800 primary school students. Correspondence Education Provision of Facilities for 2,960 student total of 8,200 students middle level places at MCC centers, train- enrolled in the MCC manpower ing of staff, expansion of headquarters, and provision of technical assistance Secondary Education Provision of Establishment of one new 960 students per year middle level secondary school (480 places) manpower and renovation and expansion of an existing secondary school (480 places) Accountancy Education Provision of Establishment of a new col- 215 students per year accountants and lege of accountancy (215 accounting techni- places), technical assist- cians ance, and training of ac- countancy teachers Studies, Evaluation and Auditing Improved manage- Studies, technical assistance education system ment and auditing and fellowships to the MOE and public administra- planning unit, the PIU, and tion system the Auditor General's office  -18- Primary Teacher Training 4.03 Under the proposed project three new primary teacher training colleges would be established and one existing teacher training college would be expanded. After full operalion, these colleges would enroll an additional 1,560 students, which wou:Ld increase teacher training capacity by 80%, and would produce about 780 trained teachers per year in two year courses of study. By 1988-89, a total of 1,740 primary school teachers per year would be trained by existing and new institutions. The increase in output would enable Malawi to meet needs for new teachers, assuming continued growth of primary school enrollment and estimated annual teacher wastage of 3% per year, but would be inadequate to reduce the student teacher ratio below about 60:1 (Annex 1, T-5). Shortfalls in teacher supply would be met through accelerated courses organized by the MIE during vacation periods or through correspondence programs. 4.04 The three new teacher training colleges are located in provincial towns and would principally serve the regions in which they are located. The proposed new Zomba Teacher Training College (540 places) would principally serve the southern region. It would be located adjacent to the MIE in the town of Domasi. The proposed Kasungu Teacher Training College (540 places) would principally serve the central region, which is the most rapidly growing area of the country. The proposed new Karonga Teacher Training College (300 places) would principally serve the relatively underpopulated extreme northern region. Despite higher capital and recurrent costs, the Government places a very high priority on development of the Karonga area, which has received assistance from three Bank Group rural development projects, as well as assistance from the Federal Republic of Germany for urban renewal, port construction, and hospital construction. A 400 place primary school, to be used as a demonstration school, would be constructed adjacent to each of the three colleges. With minor modifications, facilities to be provided would be similar to those provided to Mzuzu Teacher Training College under the Second Education Project. In addition, St Joseph's Girls Teacher Training College would be expanded from 120 to 300 enrollment, and a neighboring demonstration primary school would be renovated. The college, located in the town of Bembeke in the Dedza district (Central Region), principally serves the Central and Southern Regions. At present the Central Government pays teacher salaries but the local diocese administers the college and finances other recurrent costs. 4.05 The colleges are located in provincial towns which have little or no available housing. Therefore full boarding is required to carry out educational objectives successfully. Staff housing would also be required for all of the teaching staff as well as about 40% of the school's support staff, for a total of 129 housing units. This number is deemed essential since local housing is not available. Staff housing provided would be modest in space and costs in comparison to standard Government provisions.  -19- 4.06 Furniture and equipment to be provided would be modest and include only items essential for the carrying out of the colleges' educational 'rograms. Satisfactory preliminary lists have been prepared based on experience under the Second Education Project. Specialized equipment would include a language laboratory, a video-tape recorder for micro-teaching, and a bus to be used especially for transporting students to primary schools where they would practice teach. 4.07 At full operation in 1988/89 the four colleges would require 100 new teachers and three new principals, as well as support staff. Teachers would have at least diploma level certification (i.e. three years post-secondary education) and principals would have masters degrees in educational administration. Chancellor College and the MIE have the teaching staff required to implement an in-country training program and the British Council has been providing overseas scholarships in educational administration. A detailed plan acceptable to the Bank Group for the training of the staff of the four project institutions is to be provided by September 30, 1983 (para. 8.01 a). The plan would include the staffing, timetable, and estimated costs. The broad outline of the plan has been reviewed and found satisfactory. The institutional, financial and personnel arrangements for such training are already in place, and it is expected that Chancellor College and the MIE will collaborate in the program. It is expected that most of the training costs would be met from the Government's regular budget and through British Government support. About K150,000 is included in the project to ensure implementation of the program. Correspondence Education 4.08 The project would provide support to strengthen and expand the activities of the MCC, especially in preparing students for the JC examination. It is expected that, as a result of this assistance, the number of students passing the JC examination would more than double over the present 600. Support would include provision for improved physical facilities for existing MCC centers and for headquarters as well as training and technical assistance for MCC staff. 4.09 The proposed project includes 25 new MCC centers. Twenty-four of these centers would serve students who are already studying in makeshift and inadequate facilities. Twelve of the 25 centers would enroll 160 students each in double streams. Establishment of these larger centers would be more economic in both capital and recurrent costs and would permit more teacher specialization. In addition, 13 one-stream centers enrolling 80 students each would also be constructed. On completion, enrollment in the centers would be 2,960 on the basis of 40 students per classroom. Combined with assistance under the Third Education Project, a total of 53 new facilities out of the 78 existing centers would be constructed. 4.10 The MCC headquarters in Blantyre are inadequate to serve present as well as future staff. To provide for the planned increases in staff, the project would include additional offices, as well as meeting and  -20- and seminar rooms. Since space is inadequate on the grounds of MCC headquarters for expansion, the MOE will adapt underutilized facilities of adjacent institutions. In order to ensure adequate headquarters staffing in Blantyre, five modest staff houses would be provided. In addition, one house would be constructed in Lilongwe and one in Mzuzu for the staff of the MCC's regional offices, which have yet to open because of the lack of local housing. The project would also provide for additional printing equipment, a video tape recorder, radios, tape recorders, science kits and transport for MCC headquarters staff in Blantyre. 4.11 In order to strengthen the quality of MCC staff, the project would provide for: (a) in-country training of local M4CC teachers to upgrade their academic, pedagogical, and student guidance skills; (b) nine man-years of overseas training of graphic artists, printshop operators and management staff; (c) short-term in-country training of headquarters staff; and (d) participation in international conferences of correspondence institutions. In addition, provisions would be included for the continuation of the assistance provided by a specialist in evaluation methodology for two years beyond the termination of the present UNDP financed contract which will end in January 1984. 4.12 Present assistance will be fully utilized only if the MCC fills its vacancies and increases its staff. At a minimum the MCC requires appointment of a deputy principal and an additional five subject specialists. By not later than December 31, 1983 the MCC would appoint additional suitably qualified staff as noted above (para. 8.01 b). Secondary Education 4.13 Livingstonia Secondary School, located in the northern region on an historic mission site, is in a serious state of disrepair, with leaking roofs, buckling walls, and major termite damage. The school enrolls 240 regular secondary school students and will have to close if repairs are not made soon. Under the project the school would be expanded to enroll 480. Dormitories would be renovated and expanded, all academic areas re-roofed, a new kitchen constructed, staff houses repaired, and their number increased. Additional furniture and equipment would be provided to bring the school up to an acceptable standard. 4.14 Under the project a new secondary school would be established in rural Lilongwe, which is the fastest growing district in the country. Rural Lilongwe has 600,000 inhabitants, equivalent to 10% of Malawi's population, yet has only about 640 secondary school places available to district students. The new school, with 480 student places, would be similar to those being constructed under the Fourth Education Project. In addition to regular classrooms, facilities would include two science laboratories, a library, a home economics room and a dining hall to accomodate 240 per sitting. As in the Fourth Education Project, boarding places would be provided to all children and housing to 75% of all teaching staff.  -21- Accountancy Education 4.15 The project would support establishment of permanent facilities for the MCA on the grounds of the Malawi Polytechnic in Blantyre. At its full operation the MCA would enroll 215 students and have an annual output of 110 accounting technicians and 30 certified public accountants, which would be adequate to meet needs through the 1990's for Malawian accountants and to begin replacement of expatriates. Specifically, the new MCA would have twelve classrooms and seminar rooms, a computer room, staff offices, and dormitory space for 125 students. Furniture and equipment would include audio-visual aids, mini-computers, and library books. Housing for nine staff members would be provided to ensure adequate staffing at the institution. 4.16 The MCA would coordinate its activities carefully with the Polytechnic. It would utilize Polytechnic staff in the areas of business management, economics and statistics, and provide its own staff to teach accountancy in Polytechnic courses. Its staff and students would utilize the Polytechnic cafeteria and library. All concerned government officials are in full agreement in principle on this arrangement, and the Government has provided a draft agreement, acceptable to the Bank Group, for the sharing of staff and facilities of the two institutions. 4.17 UNDP/ILO is now providing four ILO specialists and one UN volunteer to the MCA. Three experts will be provided in 1983-1984 and the contract will terminate in 1985. The project would therefore provide funds for eight man-years of services of expatriate accounting teachers, beginning in 1983-84, to ensure continuation of this assistance. The project would also provide 20 man-years of fellowships for the training of qualified Malawians in overseas institutions in one and two year graduate courses. Students would be bonded to return to the MCA as teachers. By not later than September 30, 1983 the MCA would prepare a detailed plan satisfactory to the Bank for training of Malawian accountancy teachers (para. 8.01 c). Studies, Evaluation, and Auditing 4.18 The project would include provision to continue the program of studies and evaluation initiated under the Third Education Project. The purpose of the studies program would be to (a) evaluate ongoing educational development projects, (b) assess the feasibility of new policies and projects, and (c) strengthen Malawi's institutional capacity for educational research. Current ongoing efforts include studies on the use and effect of primary school textbooks as well as tracer studies of graduates of secondary and higher level institutions supported under the Third and Fourth Education Projects. The project would provide support for two additional studies. The first would evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the primary school self-help construction program currently being supported under the Third Education Project. The second would determine to what extent secondary school boarding facilities could be eliminated or reduced  --2 2- through new admission policies as well as location of schools drawing from nearby catchment areas. Terms of reference, costs, and timing of studies would be subject to Bank Group approval. Funds would also be provided for additional studies to be agreed upon by the Bank and the Government. To strengthen MOE capacities in this area and in educational planning, the project would also provide ten man-years of fellowships in educational planning and research. 4.19 The project would also support technical assistance and training to strengthen the Auditor General's office, which is responsible for auditing of all government accounts, including preparation of audits of Bank financed projects, and which is poorly staffed (para. 1.07). Specifically, the project would provide funds for three man-years of an expatriate auditing expert who would advise the Auditor General and would provide regular in-service training to his staff. This expert would be in post by December 31, 1983 (para. 8.01 d). In addition, six man-years of fellowship training would be provided for newly recruited staff to obtain auditing qualifications in overseas institutions. Female Participation in the Project 4.20 Girls make up about 40% of enrollment in primary education and 30% of enrollment in secondary education. The MOE encourages girls' part- ticipation in secondary education ancl they are accepted in secondary schools with slightly lower scores than boys. They are expected to make up one-third of enrollment in project secondary schools. Based on historical patterns, girls are also expected to make up one third of the enrollment of the new primary teacher training colleges. To provide for possible increases in girls' participation, some dormitories would be sited to permit conversion from boy's to girl's usage if necessary. The existing teacher training college to be expancled (St. Josephs) would remain an all girls institution in accordance with the wishes of the local diocese. Overall the total number of new teacher training places reserved for girls would be 640, or 41% of the 1,560 places to be provided. The MCC's female enrollment is estimated at about one--third, and this ratio is expected to remain stable. At present, only 5% of MCA enrollment is female. Dormitory facilities at the Polytechnic would be available to girls who wish to enroll. Monitoring of Education Financing 4.21 As a continuation of reviews initiated under the Fourth Education Project, and in order to ensure the adequate financing of project institutions and of the education system as whole, the Government, jointly with the Bank Group, would annually review the education budget in terms of its adequacy to carry out the Government's long-term educational objectives (para. 8.01 e). This review would cover, in particular, Government action to continue and revise cost-recovery programs in primary and secondary education (para. 2.31) as well as action to reduce or control costs in higher education.  -23- Summary of Technical Assistance and Training 4.22 The project would include 21 man-years of specialist services consisting of : (a) two man-years in evaluation methodology to the MCC (para. 4.11); (b) eight man-years of accountancy teachers to the MCA (para. 4.17); (c) five man-years of technical assistance to the PIU for a financial controller (para. 6.03); (d) three man-years of technical assistance for studies and evaluation (para. 4.18); and (e) three man-years of technical assistance to the office of the Auditor General (para. 4.19). Terms and conditions of employment and qualifications of specialists would be subject to Bank Group review and approval. In addition to the above, DANIDA will provide about 18 man-years of technical assistance to the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) (para. 6.03). 4.23 Fellowships to be provided under the project are as follows: (a) twenty man-years for accountancy teachers for the MCA (para. 4.17); (b) nine man-years for graphics, printing, evaluation, and management for the MCC (para. 4.11); (c) ten man-years to strengthen the MOE's planning and research capacity (para. 4.18); (d) six man-years to strengthen the Auditor General's office (para. 4.19); and (e) eight man-years to train a Malawian architect and a quantity surveyor for the PIU (para. 6.03). Curriculum vitae and courses of study of fellowship recipients, including proposed training institutions, would be subject to Bank Group review. If the Government is able to utilize bilateral funds for technical assistance and fellowships, resulting savings (which could be as high as K1.5 million) would be subject to cancellation and/or be used for project related activities, such as additional MCC centers or secondary school expansion, acceptable to the Bank Group. 4.24 In country training to be provided under the project would include (a) training of primary teacher-trainers (para. 4.07); and (b) training of MCC center and headquarters staff (para. 4.11). Proposed training programs would also be subject to Bank Group review and approval. Consultant services to the PIU for architects, engineers, supervision of construction, and auditing would total about 17 man-years (paras. 6.05 and 6.11).  --24- V. PROJECT COST AND FINANCIAL PLAN Project Cost 5.01 The total cost of the proposed project is estimated at US$42.0 million equivalent, including customs duties and taxes estimated at US$2.0 million equivalent. The estimated costs and foreign exchange components given by category in Annexes 1, T-9, T-10, and T-11 are summarized below: MK (million) US$ (million) % of Base Items Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost 1. Civil Works, Furniture, Equipment, and Vehicles a) Primary Teacher 9.67 8.16 17.83 8.95 7.56 16.51 54% Training Colleges b) Malawi Correspondence 1.85 1.65 3.50 1.71 1.53 3.24 10% College c) Secondary Schools 3.05 2.51 5.56 2.83 2.31 5.14 17% d) Malawi College 0.83 0.83 1.66 0.77 0.77 1.54 5% of Accountancy Sub-Total 15.40 13.15 28.55 14.26 12.17 26.43 86% 2. Arch./Engr./Auditing Serv. 0.50 0.76 1.26 0.46 0.70 1.16 4% 3. Tech. Asst./Studies 0.18, 1.57 1.75 0.16 1.46 1.62 5% 4. Training and Fellowships 0.21 0.95 1.16 0.20 0.88 1.08 4% 5. Project Administration 0.24 0.31 0.55 0.22 0.29 0.51 1% Baseline Costs (1-5) 16.53 16.74 33.27 15.30 15.50 30.80 100% 6. Contingencies a) Physical (9%) 1.58 1.41 2.99 1.46 1.31 2.77 b) Price Increase (27%) 5.67 3.43 9.10 5.25 3.18 8.43 Sub-Total 7.25 4.84 12.09 6.71 4.49 11.20 Total Project Cost (1-6) 23.78 21.58 45.36 22.01 19.99 42.00 of which taxes 2.16 - 2.16 2.00 - 2.00  -25- 5.02 Costs for civil works, furniture and equipment are based, inter alia, on results of recent competitive bidding and contract awards in the Fourth Education Project. Civil works costs for secondary education and MCC facilities are based on a simplified design benefitting from experience in construction of secondary schools and MCC centers. The accommodation schedules on which the cost estimates are based are functional and appropriate for the project's educational objectives. The average base construction costs per square meter (January 1983 prices) for secondary schools and MCC centers are US$275 and US$180 respectively, and for primary teacher training colleges (PTTC's) US$270. This compares with unit costs in other Eastern Africa countries as follows: Kenya US$330-340 (1981); Lesotho US$331 (1981); and Comoros Islands US$350 (1981). The unit cost per student place for academic/communal facilities is estimated at US$2,200 for secondary schools, US$700 for MCC centers, and US$3,000 for PTTC's. This compares with an average Bank-wide median cost of US$2,225 (1981) for secondary schools and primary teacher training colleges. Provision of staff housing is essential for attracting qualified teachers to rural areas. Teachers are required to pay 15% of their salary for staff housing. The Government is currently reviewing its overall policy of provision of housing to civil servants and the results of its review could be to reduce the number and size of houses to be provided in education. The estimated civil works costs reflect the impact of substantial increases in the prices of fuel, imported construction materials and local taxes over the past years, as well as difficulties experienced with supply of materials imported through Mozambique ports upon which Malawi is highly dependent. 5.03 The technical assistance component (para. 4.22) consists of 21 man-years of specialists' services. Based on past experience, these expatriate specialists are expected to be recruited through Unesco, ILO and bilateral donor agencies or directly by the Government. The cost per man-month has been estimated at about US$6,700 for those recruited through the UN system and at US$5,000 for those recruited through bilateral agencies. The cost is estimated at US$3,000 for expatriates recruited locally. Professional services, equivalent to about 17 man-years of architectural, engineering, and auditing services (para. 6.05), are estimated at an average rate of US$5,000 per man-month,including salary, overhead and fees. 5.04 Customs Duties and Taxes. In line with Malawian policies and practices, items imported specially for the proposed project would be exempted from customs duties and taxes. Certain items are expected to be purchased locally on the open market and reimbursement percentages have been calculated to exclude duties and taxes estimated at US$2.0 million equivalent on such items as imported building materials under construction contracts and local purchases of furniture and equipment. 5.05 Contingency Allowances. For physical increases, 10% has been added to the base costs of civil works and professional services and 5% to all other categories. Estimated price increases, from the base cost date of January 1983, have been applied in accordance with the implementation schedule (Annex 1, C-4) at the following annual rates:  1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Foreign 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Local (Civil Works) 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% Local (Other) 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.0% 9.0% The estimated price increases have been reviewed by Bank Group staff and have been found acceptable. 5.06 Foreign Exchange Component. The foreign exchange component, estimated at US$20.0 million equivaletnt or 50% of the total project cost net of taxes, has been calculated as follows: (a) civil works and project administration, 42%; (b) furniture and professional services, 60%; (c) equipment, vehicles, technical assistance and overseas fellowship training, 90%; and (d) local training, 25%. The foreign exchange component takes into account that the bulk of the equipment and a large part of the building materials would be imported. Financial Plan 5.07 The total estimated project cost of US$42.0 million equivalent would be financed with an IDA Credit of SDR 30.9 million (US$34.0 million equivalent), which would cover 85% of total project costs net of taxes, or 100% of the foreign exchange component and 64% of local costs. The financing plan would be as follows: US$ (million) Equivalent Government IDA Total 1. Civil Works 4.74 18.60 23.34 2. Furniture 0.21 1.18 1.39 3. Equipment and Vehicles 0.16 1.70 1.86 4. Arch./Engr. and Auditing Services; 0.23 0.93 1.16 5. Technical Assistance and Studies 0.12 1.50 1.62 6. Training Program 0.10 0.98 1.08 7. Project Administration 0.07 0.28 0.35 8. Unallocated 2.37 8.83 11.20 Total 8.00 34.00 42.00 of which taxes 2.00 - 2.00 5.08 Recurrent and Counterpart Expenditures. In any year during project implementation, the maximum Government capital contribution including taxes is not expected to exceed US$2.4 million equivalent. The bulk of these funds will be required in FY1985-87. Recurrent costs generated by the project are estimated at about US$1.2 million equivalent per annum or about 3.2% of the Government's projected recurrent budget for education by 1988/89 when the project is expected to be fully operational (paras. 2.28 - 2.32 and Annex 1, T-8). These amounts are consistent with Government plans and expectations.  -27- VI. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND REPORTING Implementation 6.01 Implementation Schedule. The project would be implemented over a period of about five and a half years, including six months for completion of payments and withdrawals (Annex 1, C-4). The project is expected to be completed by March 31, 1988, with a proposed Closing Date of September 30, 1988. The implementation schedule is based on the satisfactory record of project implementation under the Third and Fourth Education Projects and takes into consideration that the Government may wish to implement the civil works component of the project at a modest pace to insure availability of counterpart funds even if economic conditions deteriorate. 6.02 Administration. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) is an administrative and architectural unit responsible to the MOE's Planning Unit and established for the implementation of four previous education projects assisted by the Bank Group. The PIU has an excellent implementation record. Recently it expanded its activities to implement an investment program financed by the African Development Bank, and it is expected to take on additional similar responsibilities as the MOE's unit for school construction and for implementation of externally funded projects. 6.03 The PIU is presently staffed with about 20 professionals and with adequate supporting staff, including technical assistance from DANIDA, the Commonwealth Fund for Development and Japan. Financing of the contracts of three architects and one engineer provided by DANIDA for a total of 18 man-years is expected to continue at least through December 1987. To strengthen the PIU's accounting procedures, the project would provide for five man-years of the services of a financial controller. The PIU's Malawian professional staff includes a director, two junior accountants, one assistant architect, and two procurement officers. The PIU expects to hire two additional draftsmen who would be recent graduates from the Malawi Polytechnic. A Malawian recently took over the post of chief procurement officer from a retiring expatriate. Another Malawian recently began architectural training and funds would be provided in the project to train a second architect as well as a quantity surveyor. As this staff returns from training, DANIDA assistance would be gradually phased out. Qualifications and experience of the project manager, senior architect, senior procurement officer, and financial controller would be acceptable to the Bank Group. 6.04 Operational expenditures for project administration are included, starting only in January 1986, since such costs are being financed under the Fourth Education Project to December 31, 1985. The project does not include financial assistance for the local salaries of PIU personnel, since these would come under the MOE recurrent budget beginning in January 1986.  -28- 6.05 Professional Services (AlE). Architectural and engineering services required for the project are limited since standardized designs have already been prepared by the PlU as part of a general standardization of educational facilities for secondary schools and the MCC centers. The designs of the PTTC's, to be prepared by local consultants, would be based on the design of the Mzuzu PTTC financed under the Second Education Project. All draft designs have been reviewed and found acceptable to the Bank Group. The design and supervision of the MCA would be the responsibility of the Ministry of Workcs without any cost to the project. The Fourth Education Project provides funds under the pre-investment category for design work for the Zomba PTTC, which would be undertaken by consultants. Under the Fifth Education Project, consultant services, equivalent to 17 man-years, would be provided for the design of the three additional PTTC's, for supervision of all PTTC's, and for supporting the PIU with quantity surveying, electrical engineering, and supervisory services for the secondary schools and the MCC centers (para. 5.03). 6.06 Site Selection. Satifactory sites for two of the three new PTTC's and for the MCA have been selected and are owned by the Government. The Government has selected sites, subject to Bank review in the field, for the new secondary school in Lilongwe, for the Kasungu PTTC, and for the 25 MCC centers (para. 8.02 b). Adequate land is expected to be available and provided free of charge to the project. 6.07 Status of Preparation. Standardized designs for all project institutions except the MCA have already been prepared. The Government has selected the consultant architects for the PTTC's, and the PIU is expected to be well advanced on modifications of the standardized designs for project facilities. Satisfactory preLiminary furniture and equipment lists for all project institutions have been reviewed by Bank Group staff. Modified designs for the PTTC's will be prepared by July 1983 and tendering is expected to begin at that time. Procurement 6.08 Contracts for civil works, .furniture and equipment would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with the Bank Group's guidelines for procurement. These contracts would total about US$32.0 million equivalent including contingencies. Exempted from ICB wou:Ld be: (a) civil works contracts estimated to cost less than US$300,000 equivalent each (estimated at US$3.5 million equivalent including contingencies); and (b) furniture and equipment contracts costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each (estimated at US$0.8 million equivalent including contingencies). Such contracts would be awarded following competitive bidding advertised locally and in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Bank Group. Contracts for goods and equipment estimated to cost less than US$10,000 equivalent, but not exceeding US$25,000 equivalent in total, would be procured by local shopping.  -29- 6.09 Architectural sketch designs, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture and equipment indicating proposed grouping and cost estimates would be reviewed by the Bank Group. Items would be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage competitive bidding and permit bulk procurement. Prior review of tender evaluation documents by the Bank Group would not be required for civil works contracts costing less than US$300,000 equivalent each and for furniture and equipment contracts costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each. Supervision missions would review and approve sample documents to ensure proper handling. 6.10 When ICB is used, domestic manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a preference of 15% of the existing applicable rate of import duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing foreign suppliers, and qualified domestic civil works contractors would be allowed a preference of 7.5% of the bid prices of competing foreign contractors. 6.11 Consultants would be selected in accordance with Bank Group guidelines. Locally established consulting firms who have undertaken similar assignments for, and have a good working relationship with the Government, are expected to be selected. All consultants financed under the project would be selected under terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank Group. Disbursements 6.12 Disbursements (Annex 1, T-12) would be on the basis of: (a) 80% of total expenditures for civil works and operational expenditures for project administration; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures, 100% of local expenditures ex-factory, or 80% of local expenditures for locally procured furniture, equipment, vehicles and transportation of furniture and equipment to school sites; and (c) 100% of foreign expenditures or 80% of local expenditures for professional services, technical assistance, fellowships, and training. Disbursements for operational expenditures under project administration, local transportation expenses of furniture and equipment to schools sites, and local training would be made against statements of expenditure, documentation for which would not be submitted for review but would be retained by the Government for inspection by the Bank Group during project supervision. Experience with previous Bank Group-assisted education projects has demonstrated that the PIU has satisfactory institutional capacity to use the statement of expenditure procedures. All other disbursements would be fully documented. The disbursement schedule is based on the average for all Bank Group financed projects in Malawi. Reporting and Auditing 6.13 Following procedures established under the previous education projects, semi-annual reports on implementation progress would be submitted to the Bank for review within two months after the periods ending March 31  --30- and September 30 of each year. No later than three months after the Project Closing Date, the PIU, with assistance from other MOE and Government departments, would provide the Bank with a completion report evaluating the execution, initial operations, costs and benefits of the proposed project and the performance of the Government and the Bank including lessons learned during proiect implementation. The report would be based on agreed upon ways and means of measuring project objectives as described in Annex 2. 6.14 The PIU would establish and maintain separate accounts for all expenditures incurred under the project. The records would be maintained adequately to reflect, in accordance with appropriate accounting procedures, its operation and financial condition. The Government would provide annual audits satisfactory to the Bank Group for all expenditures financed under the project, with particular emphasis on operational expenditures (project administration), expenses for local transportation of furniture and equipment to school sites, and local training. Audit reports would be provided to the Bank Group within six months of the end of the Government's fiscal year. Since the Auditor General's office is understaffed, funds would be provided under the project for audit services to be furnished by private firms. VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits 7.01 At its completion, the project would result in the training of 780 new primary teachers per year who would teach an average of 46,800 primary school children. Improved teacher quality would result in improved student learning and it is estimated that student completion rates would increase from the present 23% to about 37% in the 1990's (Annex 1, T-4). Improved quality of primary education would have an effect on agricultural productivity, and would be an essential base for further education and training to meet more specialized manpower needs. 7.02 Through project support the MCC can be expected to at least double the number of successful candidates for the JC examination, which was 600 in 1981. This increase would be achieved at lower capital and recurrent costs than regular secondary schools and would help the Government to provide the basic educational skills needed for the training of middle level manpower. Renovation of Livingstonia Secondary School would ensure annual output of 120 secondary school graduates at a lower cost than construction of a new institution, while establishment of a new secondary school in rural Lilongwe would ensure output of 120 new secondary school graduates per year from this area. Strengthening of the MCA would lead to output of 30 trained accountants and 110 technicians per year, which would meet needs through the 1990's for future Malawian accountants. Support for educational planning, studies, evaluation, and auditing would help to ensure improved management of the educational system and the civil service.  -31- Risks 7.03 The main project risk arises from the recurrent cost implications of the expected growth of the education system (paras. 2.33 and 5.08). Project supervision missions would carefully monitor the financing of the education system, and, as under the Fourth Education Project, the Government and the Bank would jointly undertake annual reviews of the financing of education (paras. 3.06 and 4.21). 7.04 Other risks are minimal. Recruitment of students for the new teacher training colleges, which could be a problem, should not be difficult because of the increased numbers of students successfully graduating from both regular secondary schools and the MCC. The MCC will be able to manage its expanded enrollment and improve the pass rates of its students only if new staff are recruited; and assurances to that effect have been provided. The MCA requires adequate technical assistance and fellowships to implement its program of studies, and project funds are provided to that effect. VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 8.01 The Government has agreed to: (a) prepare a staff training plan for the primary teacher training colleges by September 30, 1983 (para. 4.07); (b) appoint a deputy principal and an additional five subject specialists to the MCC by December 31, 1983 (para. 4.12); (c) prepare a staff training plan for the MCA by September 30, 1983 (para. 4.17); (d) appoint a specialist acceptable to the Bank to the Auditor General's office by December 31, 1983 (para. 4.19); and (e) annually review, with the Bank Group, the education budget in terms of its adequacy to carry out the Government's educational objectives (para. 4.21). 8.02 Subject to the above assurances, the project constitutes a suitable basis for an IDA Credit of SDR 30.9 million (US$34.0 million equivalent) to the Republic of Malawi on standard IDA terms.  - 32- ANNEX 1 MALA1_1 Table T-1 FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT EMPLOYINT IN SELiCTED RIGHER LEVEL OCCUPATIONS, 1'S79 Total Non- Percentage Occupational Category Employment Malawian Non-Malawian 1. Professional/ Technical and related workers 21,716 2,859 13.2 Of which; (a) Chemists, Physicists, Scientists and Engineers not elsewhere specified. 681 53 7.8 (b) Architects, Engineers, Town Planners 534 and related Technicians 1,386 38.5 (c) Surveyors & Engineering Technicians 1,2.57 349 27.8 (d) Doctors/Dentists and related Assistants 579 189 32.6 (e) Nurses, Midwives & related Health Assistants 941 249 26.5 (f) Accountants & Auditors 7:L2 408 57.3 2. Administrative and Managerial Workers 4,127 1,772 42.9 3. Clerical and related Workers 23,706 3,028 12.8 Of which; (a) Stenographers & Typists 2,1105 648 30.8 (b) Bookkeepers & Cashiers 3,443 702 20.4 4. Managers (Wholesale & Retail) 225 120 53.3 5. Farm Managers & Supervisors 3,314 669 20.2 6. Production. Supervisors & Foremen 3,645 iU1 18.1 TOTAL 56,733 9_J0_ 16.1 Source: "An Analysis of Malawi's 1979 Manpower Survey" Date: November 24, 1980.  - 33 - ANNEX 1 TabLe T-2 MALAWI FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT FORECAST OF HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVEL MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-1990 (in thousands) Year 1979 1980 1985 1990 1. Posts requiring post-secondary degree or equivalent. Total number of positions 29.9 31.5 36.6 45.8 of which a) Stock at beginning of period 23.5 24.9 25.9 31.9 b) Unfilled vacancies from 6.4 5.0 5.2 2.9 previous period c) Requirement due to attrition - 0.4 1.8 1.9 d) Requirement due to growth - 1.2 3.7 8.6 Total new positions 6.4 6.6 10.7 13.4 Output of institutions 1.4 1.4 7.8 8.5 Unfilled vacancies at end of period 5.0 5.2 2.9 4.9 2. Post requiring senior secondary (MCE) level or equivalent Total number of positions 37.6 39.8 47.9 58.6 of which a) Stock at beginning of period 33.5 34.9 35.6 40.4 b) Unfilled vacancies from 4.1 2.7 3.4 3.3 previous period c) Requirement due to attrition - 0.8 4.0 4.1 d) Requirement due to growth - 1.4 4.9 10.8 Total new positions 4.1 4.9 12.3 18.2 Output of institutions 1.4 1.5 9.0 12.9 Unfilled vacancies at end of period 2.7 3.4 3.3 5.3 3. Posts requiring junior secondary (JC) level or equivalent Total number of positions 52.5 54.4 64.0 78.5 of which a) Stock at beginning of period 35.6 37.4 38.3 48.0 b) Unfilled vacancies from 6.9 5.1 15.2 11.6 previous period c) Requirement due to attrition - 0.9 4.3 4.4 d) Requirement due to growth - 11.0 6.2 14.5 Total new positions 6.9 17.0 25.7 30.5 Notes: 1. Stock is computed as follows: St = St-l - dt-1 i nt-1 where dt-1 = number leaving the labor market due to attrition and rt_l = output of institutions. 2. The assumed rate for attrition (death and retirement) is 1.5% p.a. for university graduates and 2.5% per year for others. 3. Projection assumes economic growth rate of 3% to 1985 and 4% to 1990 and no improvement in productivity. Source: ((An Analysis of Malawi's 1979 Manpower Studys. Date: December 3, 1982  - 34 - MALAWI FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT COMPARATIVE: EDUCATION INDICATORS Tab'e T-3 Pac'e 1 f1 2 DEtEMBER 9, 1982 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE COMPLETION RECURRtENT ON EDUCATION EDUCATION ADULT PRIMARY RATE FOR UNIT COST PROGRESSION SECONDARY HIGHER GNP PER AS PERCENT RECURRENT LITERACY ENROLL. PRIMARY PRIMARY PRIMARY RATE FROM ENROLL. SECONDARY ESOLL. BASE POP. CAPITA PERCENT GNP TOTAL CENTRAL EFPENDITURES NATE RATIO SCHOOL STUDENTS EDUCATION PRIMARY TO ILATIO STUDENTS RATIO YEAR MILLS. (USS) DEVOTED TO GOVERNMENT ALLOCATED TO: (2) (NET) CYCLE PER AS PERCENT SECONDARY (NET) PER (GOSS) (1979) (1979) EDUCATION EXPENDITURE FRI SEC HI (1976) (1) (2) TEACHER GNP/CAPITA (2) (X) TECACHER (2) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) DEVELOPED COUNTRIES AUSTRALIA 80 [4.6 8,870 6.3' 14.6 --- --- --- 1008 103' 100 21 --- 99 73 13 20.90 CANADA 81 23.7 9,630' 7.7' 18.58y 308? 34-? 23'? 99 106' 100 21 19.9-? IW0 92' IS 22.60' G.KRIANY F.R. 79 61.4 12,220 4.6 998 8 1 --- --_ 1OO- 94 _--- 12.10 NETHERLANDS 79 14.1 11,084 7.9 5.1 20 35 25 99? 96 95 18 15.3 99 82 13 12.40 NEW ZEALAND 80 3.2 6,081 5.58 13.4 37 31 28 99 100 100 24 11.6 100 82 15 25.80"- SWEDEN 79 8.3 12,863 9.0 18.2 31 10 10 99g 99' 100 18N 19.9 100 79' 108Y 36.508Y EASTERN AFRICA SOTSWANA 80 0.8b 720b 6.3P 19.3 48 28 15 35b 94 74 32 22.0 33*8 20 18 1.50 BURUNDI 81 4.2 235 2.8b- 19.0 42 35 23 25 28' 35 37 22.6 12 3x 17 1.00 COMOROS 80 0.4b 260 6.5" 25.4 40 28b 14 --- 99' 65 45 16.0 58 21X 30 1.40 DJIO3UTI 81 0.3 460 5.4 10.8 60 40 ... 10 32 --- 41 -- 60 8 19 0.50 ETHIOPIA 80 31.0b 130b 2.2P 11.1' 52 32 14' 15 38 --- 59 18.0 --- 9 41' 5.10 KENYA 79 15.3 390 5.9V 18.ob 71 15 14 45 92 74 40 15.8 41 . 19 28 1.00 L[ESUTHO 80 1.3 410P 4.3P 21.0 51 24 25 52 64 61 49 4.0 64 17 21 0.90 MADAGASCAR 77 8.5 330 4.5" 24.0 53 28 19 50 94b6 33 55b 8.0 38 14 23 3.10b6 MALAWI 81 6.b 200 3.5 11.4 38 14 25 27b 62 23 65 5.8 12 4 21 0.40 MAURITIUS 80 0.gb 1,080b 6.0 11.5 39 40 7 80 87 78 22b 17.1 79 45Y 21 0.40 EWANDA 80 5.0b 2Oob 3.2 21.3 62 17 11 23b 571 62 40 14.0 6 4' 13 0.40 SEYCHELLES 78 65.0b 1,580b 5.0 12.0 34' 33' 13' --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SOMALIA 78 3.8 185' 2.0" 11.0 55 10 21 50b 26bY --- 27b 20.4 53b 4b4 16b 1.00 SUDAN 80 20.0b 478b 3.0 -- 66 39 ... 32 51" 68 34 1.4 44 13 16 ... SWAZILAND 78 0.5 650 7.1" 12.2 36 33 18 65b 80by 498 35by 7.7 66' 33bxy 208 2.00 TANZANIA 80 18.5 260 5.9 17.7 47 10 16 79b 98b 87 21 11.0 1gb 3 20 O.Olb UGANDA 80 12.6b 30ob --- 16.1" 23b 37b 27b 48 54' 61 34 --- 17 5 23 0.60 ZAIRE 78 27.5 2108 6.0" 22.0 49 26 25 15 84Y 44 42' -- 41 13' 27 1.10bY ZAMBIA 80 5.7b 566b 4.5P 11.1 48 23 22 44b 95 80 48 12.9 19 16 22 1.50 ZIMBABWE 81 7.7b 700b 5.1 19.5 62 32 6 44b 90 55 39 20.0 85 15 23 0.50 WESTERN AFRICA SENIN 79 3.4b 320b 6.53 35.0 43 21 5 [ib 42 30 46 14.0 30 11 43 I.WY CAMEROON 78 8.2 590 2.9Y 16.0Y 33' 43' 20' --- 74y 45' 55Y 11.8' 208 14Y 26 1.30Y -.A.R. 79 2.2 280 3.8'- 20.6'- --- --- --- --- __ -_ 0.708! CHAD 76 4.4 120 2.4b6Y 21.7b --7 --- --- 15 25Y --- 77 --- --- 3xy 21 0.20Y CONGO 78 1.5 670 g.o0'y 27.7'Y --- --- --- ___ --- --- 56bY -- 30 -- 43b7 4.00&! CABON 77 0.6 3,420 3.7bY 8.4Y --- --- --- --- --- _ -- 46by [9- 67- --- lgby 28 0Y GAMBIA 77 0.6 220 3.3"' 6.5b 46 25' 6' job 40by 908 27by 44.7- 40 12b61 17 _ _ GHANA 76 11.3 400 4.0Y 15.5b --- --- --- --- 7Ib.y --- 27by --- --- 36b.y 21 --- GUINEA 79 5.3 290P 4.6'P --- 25' 29' 28' 20 34 36 38 20.0-P 85 16 29 7.00D IVORY COAST 81 8.2b 1,070b 10.0 45.0 33 46 13 30b 60 86 43 26.0 47 15-3Y 26 1.90Y! LIBERIA 80 1.9 520 4.6 19.6 43 23 24 30 52 32 35 20.0 76 22 20 2.90 MALI 77 6.7b 180b 4.2b 21.7b 45a 37' 18' 10 27b$y --- 43by --- 50s 6' --- o.goby MAURITANIA 78 I.6b 320b 5.5 16.9 33 43 25 17b 32 60 44 52.0 30 9 25 0.37 NIGER 78 5.2 300 4.3'y 16.6!Y 52' 43' 5' 8 17 56a 41' 38.7- 40 2 24b 0.20Y NIGERIA 77 82.6 910 4.1Y 9.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -- 10'Y 25 0.17Y SENEGAL 77 5.5 450 5.0 23.0 46 34 20 10 34b6y --- 43by --- 20 10 21 2.20by SIERRA LEOhE 77 3.4 250 4.ob 16.0b --- --- -_ 15b 37' -- 35 25.Ob 84 15' 22 0.60by TDGO 78 2.4 400 6.5q3 26.5q 30' 28' 21' 18 74 40 54by 38.0 52 32b6y 4gb 1.60by UPPER VOLTA 78 5.6 180 3.08" 19.3'Y 31 16 32 -- 15by 23 53by 52.5? 19 3b6y 25 0.027 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ARGENTINA 78 27.3 2,210 2.7 10.9 43' 31' 18' 93b 89 52 17 -- 87 31 8 23.00 BAHAMAS 79 0.2 2,770 5.7 19.1 36 36 11 93b 99 97 24 --- 97 75 19 -- BARBADOS 78 0.2 2,680 8.3"Y 22.1' 43' 31' 16' ggb [OOY 99' 27Y 19.9Y 99' 78Y 20Y ! -- BOLIVIA 80 5.4 550 4.1'Y 30.3' --- --- --- 63 74Y --- 20Y --- --- 15Y --- 12.60! BRAZIL 79 116.5 1,770 3.8 6.2 51 -- 14 76 73'y -- 23y 4,.5b 61' 15-Y 14'Y 12.62b CHILE 76 10.9 1,890 3.2by 13.0b --- --- --[ [9- llgb7y --- 34by 67 - --- 55b.y 20by l1.9otby COLOMBIA 80 26.7b 1,180b 3.3 25.0 35 20 20 85[ 78 36 32 6.6 -- 47 20 10.026Y COSTA RICA 80 2.2b .1,810b 8.4 31.1 40 27 33 90 93 77 33 5.5 77 40 27 14.00 CUBA 78 9.8 --- 8.0 11.0 --- --- -- 96 112bcy 98 [8by -- 98 7[b.y 15 19.02b6 DOMINICAN REP. 78 5.3 1,030 2.1Y 13.9Y !