Tunisia - Sfax Flood Protection Project

Document of The World Bank - ----- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report pNo. P-3553-TUN REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT'OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOP} TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN THE AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$25.0 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA FOR A SFAX FLOOD PROTECTION PROJECT April 29, 1983 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Tunisian Dinar (TD) The excbange rate of the Tunisian Dinar is floating. The rate used in the Staff Appraisal Report, which approximates the rate as of February 1983, is: US$1.00 = TD.630 TD 1.00 = US$1.587 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ACRONYMS DHU - Directorate of Urban Hyciraulics (Direction de l'Hydraulique Urbaine) MA - Ministry of Agriculture ME - Ministry of Equipment ONAS - National Sewerage Authority (Office National de l'Assainissement) SONEDE - National Water Autbority (Societe Nationale d'Exploitation et de Distribution des Eaux)  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA SFAX FLOOD PROTECIION PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Tunisia Amount: US$25.0 million equivalent, including a capitalized front-end fee Terms: 17 years, including four years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate Project Description: The proposed project would minimize loss of life, protect public and private property, reduce production losses from floods, and ensure permanent, efficient maintenance of flood protection infrastructure in Sfax and surrounding areas. It consists of rehabilitation of existing water courses (oueds) and extension of dikes; construction of a belt canal in Sfax and minor flood protection works in neighboring villages; provision of maintenance equipment; staffing, equipping and operation of a unit to maintain and repair flood protection works; and provision of consulting services for related design and construc- tion supervision. The beneficiaries of the project cannot be easily identified, since the areas of Sfax which would be affected by future floods cannot be predicted, and since these floods would also have repercussions on surrounding areas as well as on the national economy. The risk of slippage, and the consequent escalation of costs, would be minimized by the provision of consultant assistance for project supervision and close Bank monitoring. Creation of the special unit for repair and maintenance would minimize the possibility of deterioration of flood protection infrastructure. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance ofi their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Estimated Project Costs: Local Foreign Total ------ US$ 'lillion----------- Rehabilitation of Sfax Oueds 4.9 8.6 13.5 Extension of Dikes 0.8 1.3 2.1 Belt Canal 3.1 5.5 8.6 Minor Flood Protection Works in Neighboring Villages 0.4 0.6 1.0 Land Acquisition/Relocation 4.6 0.8 5.4 Maintenance Equipment 1.0 2.2 3.2 Operation and Maintenance 0.3 0.1 0.4 Consultant Services 0.4 1.5 1.9 Base Cost 15.5 20.6 36.1 Physical Contingencies 1.3 2.5 3.8 Price Contingencies 3.4 4.6 8.0 Total Project Cost 20.2 27.7 47-9 Front-end Fee on Bank Loan - 0.1 0.1 Total Financing Required 20.2 /I 27.8 48.0 /1 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total ------ US$ Million----- Bank - 25.0 25.0 Government 20.2 2.8 23.0 Total 20.2 27.8 48.0 Estimated Disbursements! Bank FY 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -------------US$ Million------------ Annual 2.3 4.5 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.U Cumulative 2.3 b.8 12.8 17.8 22.U 25.u Economic Rate of Return: 17.5 percent Staff Appraisal Report: No. 4421a-TUN, dated April 27, 1983 Map No. 17067 /1 Including $10.1 million of taxes and duties.  INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DiEVELOPNtENI REPORI AND RECOMMENDATION OF 'THE PRESiDENI OF IthE IBRD TO lHE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF TUNISiA FOR A SFAX FLOOD PROTECTION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Bank loan to the Republic of Tunisia for US$25.U million equivalent to help finance a Sfax Flood Protection Project. The loan, which includes a capitalized front-end fee of 0.25 percent on the Bank loan, would be repaid over 17 years, including 4 years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate. PART I - lHE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A special economic report entitled "Tunisia - Review of the Sixth Development Plan (1982-86)" was prepared by two economaic missions which visited Tunisia in October 1981 and March 1982. A draft of the report served as a basis for discussions with the Government on macroeconomic policies and sectoral investment programs. The final version of the report includes a main volume (No. 4137-TUN) dated March 16, 1983, ana a second volume on sectoral aspects to be issued in May 1983. This part reflects the report's findings. Country Data sheets are attached in Annex I. 2/ 3. Much of Tunisia is arid or semi-arid. Only three percent of arable land is irrigated, and areas where rainfed agriculture is possible are Subject to severe year-to-year fluctuation in rainfall. Tunisia's most important raw materials are phosphates, petroleum, and natural gas. While the known exploitable reserves of oil and gas are approaching depletion, and the pbosphate deposits are of relatively low quality, there have recently been promising indications of new reserves, although it is too early to assess their exact potential. There is also considerable tourism potential, and efforts have been made during the last decade to develop it rapidly. 4. Since independence in 1956, Tunisia has undertaken a massive effort towards development of its human resources, paying special attention to family welfare, education, and technical and vocational training. As a result, the infant mortality rate declined from 150 in the early l960s to 90 at the ena of the 1970s, the adult literacy rate increased from under 15 percent to about b2 percent, and average caloric supply per capita increased from about 80 to 115 percent of minimum standard requirements. The sharp decrease in mortality rates was not fully compensated by the simultaneous decrease in fertility and birth rates, despite an active family planning policy pursued by the Government. Therefore, the annual natural demographic growth rate decreased only slightly from 2.6 percent in the 1960s to 2.4 percent in the 1970s. Moreover, after 1976, the net emigration of Tunisians abroad was sharply 1/ Part I is substantially the same as Part I from President's Report No. 3482-TUN of March 7, 1983, for a Third Urban Sewerage Project. 2/ Country data have been updated on the basis of this review, and thus sometimes differ from the Country Data sheets.  -2 - reduced by restrictive measures taken in the EEC countries and Libya. As a consequence, the residential population of 6.57 million by the middle of 1981 exceeded the level projected five years earlier by 130,000. 5. Agriculture still occupies near-Ly one out of every three Tunisians in the labor force. To accelerate job creation, more than half of the total investments of the Fifth Plan (1976-81) was allocated to directly productive sectors, but the direct employment effects of the leading sectors (petroleum, phosphate mining and processing, and tourism) are small. These sectors, however, make a vital contribution to GD]?, public savings, and exports. They provided 65 percent of the country's foreign exchange earnings in 1980 while manufacturing activities, except phosphate-based chemicals, provided 17 percent. 6. Recent Economic Developments. During the Fifth Plan the growth performance differed from the impressive growth achieved from 1971 to 1976, not so much in terms of overall growth as in terms of the underlying growth factors: output in agriculture and in food industries has grown on average below the demographic rate since 1976, partially as a result of bad weather conditions; textile production and tourism development grew at a slower pace than projected mainly because of the slurmp in European markets. By contrast, manufacturing industry other than textiles, as well as energy, phosphate processing, construction, and construction materials expanceci at a fast pace. 7. In spite of the considerable increase in domestic demana, particularly in investments, the balance of payments situation remained favorable from 1976 to 1981. Imports in current prices grew at a slower pace than exports, and the terms of trade improved significantly due to sharply higher post-1974 export prices for crude oil. As a result, the resource gap remained relatively small, and domestic savings financed on average over 7b percent of investment, which increased from an average of 23 percent of GDP for 1972-76 to 30 percent for 1977-81. The current account deficit averaged $450 million per year (1977-81), and was easily financed; grant aid ane private investments (mainly for oil exploration) provided about 30 percent, while the remainder was mainly covered by long-term foreign borrowing. Thus, during the 1970s total foreign debt increased little relative to GDP, and the debt service ratio dropped. 8. The public sector hlas played a major role in mobilizing and redistributing domestic resources. Central Government revenues were equivalent to about one-third of GDP on average for the Fifth Plan period, one of the highest shares among middle-income countries. Over 30 percent of these revenues was saved, and public savings financed close to two-thirds of total Government capital expenditures. This comfortable public finance situation permitted a rapid increase in subsidy payments to private consumers and public enterprises. Such tranfers including those for social security accounted for 19 percent of total current budget outlays and over 7 percent of GDP in 1981. 9. The main objectives of the Fifth Development Plan were achieved, except for the employment target. The actual GDP growth fell short by 1.2 percentage points of the planned rate of 7.3 percent p.a., mainly because of poor performance in agriculture, while the investment objective of $9.8 billion in current prices, or 30 percent of GDP, was fully met. Completion of some large projects in the public sector (steel, expansion of the oil refinery) were, however, delayed, but private sector investments, both foreign and national, exceeded Plan targets.  -3- 10. Open and hidden unemployment is a serious problem for the Tunisian economy at present. During 1977-81, although job creation objectives were achieved in all non-agricultural sectors except construction, these sectors could only absorb 90 percent of new job seekers at a time when migration to Libya and Europe slowed down. The overall unemployment rate, estimated at about 13 percent of the labor force in 1980, has therefore not declined. 11. Medium-term Prospects. The Sixtb Development Plan (1982-bb) was approved by the Parliament in July 1982. The main objectives are employment generation, export promotion, and maore rapia growth in the three least developed regions of the country (North-West, Center-West, and South). Sectoral priority is to be given to agriculture, tourism, and electrical and mechanical industries. 12. The outlook for investment and growth during this perioc and beyond will partly depend upon future developments in the oil and natural gas sector. Oil and gas exploration programs under way have been encouraging. Based on known reserves, and with the possible exploitation of smaller fields that recently became profitable, it is generally expected that domestic oil and gas production would at best be stabilized at about its present annual level of 5-6 million tons of oil equivalent until the end of the decade. However, barring large new oil or gas discoveries, and given the rapia rise in domestic demand for energy, Tunisia will have to face the consequences of a relative decline in energy revenues. The Government considers that the situation requires immediate policy changes and is analyzing the most urgent ones to be included in the Sixth Plan. By introducing these changes on time, Tunisia expects to reduce the associated economic and social strains, and avoid major balance-of-payments problems. 13. The Sixth Plan recommends a GDP growth objective in the range of 5.9 to 6.1 percent depending on agricultural performance. This growth rate is in line with recent trends. Projected growth of traditional exports (tourism, textiles, and phosphate-based chemicals) is insufficient to compensate for the projected decline in oil export revenues; these exports should be supplemented by new ones, in particular electrical and mechanical products. Production diversification and export promotion will, however, take time to bear fruit given, in particular, the depressed world market prospects. The Plan strategy therefore rightly aims at containing domestic demand in order to control import growth. The macroeconomic scenario assurmes no improvement in terms of * trade, as was brought about by oil price rises in 1973-74 and in 1979-80. This would not only affect the external account but also result in slower growth of domestic savings, particularly public savings. 14. Consequently, the Sixth Plan projects a drop in the fixed investment rate from 30 percent of GDP in 1977-81 to about 25 percent for the Plan period. This would still imply an increase of 24 percent in constant prices relative to the Fifth Plan investrment. A major objective is to correct recent capital intensive biases in projects by appropriate sectoral allocation of investments. More resources would be allocated to small and niedium manufacturing enterprises in the underdeveloped regions, in order to ease the unemployment problem and reduce income disparities between rural and urban areas. Since June 1981, a new set of policy measures has targeted the incentive system toward this objective. The Investment Code was modified to offer free industrial zones and direct subsidies to job creation for new  - 4 - projects in underdeveloped zones, and a Promotion Fund for Handicrafts and Household Workshops was created. In order to promote a more efficient technical and financial management of the public and private modern sector, the Plan assigns a major role in project promotion and supervision to an expanded network of new Development Banks (two opened in 1981 and three in 1982); they are joint ventures with foreign investors and should alleviate the pressure on the budget to finance too large a share of public investments. 15. Increasing budgetary constraints will require a reassessment of the present policies of subsidies for energy, basic foodstuffs, transportation, and public sector enterprises. In addition, interest rate policy and a better-adjusted fiscal system should be used to restrain final consumption and stimulate savings. As first encouraging steps in 1981 and in early 1982, sizeable price increases in energy and agricultural products were implemented, and the whole interest rate structure was revised upward, rates on saving accounts and term deposits being increased by 1.5 to 2 points. There was a sizeable increase of the legal minimum wage (30 percent) in March 1982, mainly to improve the low-wage earners' living conditions, but the Government recognizes that overall wage and salary policies should keep labor cost increases (including social costs chargeable to enterprises) in line with productivity increases, particularly since Tunisia wants to stimulate tourism, and improve its international competitiveness for exports of manufactured goods. 16. Social Issues. Tunisia's social performance has been impressive since independence, and the country has come a long way towards meeting the basic needs of its population and reducing absolute poverty. About 16 percent of GDP is now devoted to social programs. However, unemployment among the young and regional pockets of poverty still present serious social problems. 17. Recently published data show that the continued attention of the Government to poverty oriented social programs resulted in a reduction of the ratio of people under a minimum standard income from 17 percent of the total population in 1975 to 13 percent in 1980. During this period, the overall number of this group declined in urban areas but remained the same in some rural zones in the center of the country, as a consequence of poor agricul- tural performance. Income differentials between the coast (East) and the interior (West) widened, in part because Lhe system of price controls and subsidies as well as budgetary expenditures had a weak redistrilbutive impact. The Government is using the Sixth Plan to focus on the largest zones of poverty, with a view to eradicating them before the end of this century. Reducing the demographic growth rate is considered an important factor in this endeavor. 18. Education expenditures rank first: among budgetary outlays. The comprehensive education system provides free access to all students, and the gross enrollment rate has reached 100 percent for primary ecucation, and 30 percent for secondary education. The performance of the system could, however, be improved by expanding vocational training programs, and by improving their relevance and responsiveness to labor demand, as well as to the special needs of tne poor and rural groups.  - 5 - 19. Public health services are second among social expenaitures, and their overall beneficial effect is reflected in the improvement of the vital statistics (para. 4). There remain, however, regional disparities in the availability of hospital beds, doctors and nursing personnel; health services have concentrated largely on curative medicine, ana the medical referral system is not functioning properly. As a result, the rural poor are often excluded. Closely linked to nutritional deficiencies, intant mortality remains high relative to middle-income countries, 20. In the Sixth Plan, investment in education, health, housing and water supply is focussed more on deprived areas, provided at lower costs (health, shelter), and made more relevant to the needs of the economy (training). In education, two reforms are under discussion: the first one would provide a nine-year schooling period for all children, and the second would create polytechnical high schools combining basic and technical education. In bealth, the Sixth Plan allocates more resources to preventive medicine and nutrition education. Finally, as regards housing, public subsidized programs will be directed to the neediest population groups. The housing aemana from households above the minimum standard income limit will be satisfied by the private sector. 21. External Assistance and Foreign Debt. As mentioned above, the growth of foreign borrowing was modest during the second half of the 1970s, and a growing share of foreign funds was provided by public sources at relatively soft terms. During the 1977-80 period, foreign loan commitments averaged about $700 million per annum, 62 percent of whicb in the form of official assistance (ODA). About 65 percent of ODA commitments came from bilateral sources, chiefly France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Canada, and sorae oil-surplus countries. About 24 percent of total ODA was committed by the Bank Group, and some 11 percent by other multilateral sources. Borrowing terms were favorable, averaging 5.8 percent interest and 18.5 years maturity, including a grace period of 5 years. At the end of 1981, debt outstanding and disbursed was estimated at about $3.4 billion, or 40 percent of GNP; debt service was 12 percent of exports of goods and services, as compared with 17.7 percent in 1970. 22. The external trade deficit reached $608 million in 1981, and is projected to grow to about $1.2 billion in 1986. New loan commitments from abroad, projected at $1.2 billion per year on average (at present dollar exchange rates), should not be difficult to obtain, with ODA providing half of the total. Leaving aside the possibility of major oil and gas discoveries, external debt service would be about 13 percent of total export revenues in 1986. 23. These relatively favorable prospects would depend on a timely implementation of the already mentioned policy changes to curb domestic demand, promote exports, and improve public sector savings. It should be noted, however, that the Sixth Plan recommends a low growth scenario in order to preserve the country's relatively high financial stability and creditworthiness. This objective is even more crucial if the country is to succeed in mobilizing the large inflows of direct foreign capital assumed in the Plan. Foreign investments were small during most of the 1970s but have gained momentum during the last three years in line with increasea activities in the oil sector, and new incentives offered to foreign investors in  manufacturing. Such investments have inc'reased from $50 million in 1976 to about $200 million in 1981, and have been equivalent to 10 percent of total investments for 1977-81. The Plan's growth scenario estimates that about 15 percent of total investment could be financed by foreign capital, equivalent to an annual inflow of $400 million. The newly created Development Banks (para. 14) are expected to play a significant role in this context. 24. In conclusion, the balance-of-payments outlook can be considered favorable in the medium term. In the longer term, much will depend on the policy changes to be initiated during the next few years, and on developments in the hydrocarbon sector. Considering its long record of prudent and skillful balance-of-payments and external debt management, there are good grounds to assume that Tunisia will formulate and implement the necessary policy changes and will continue to be creditworthy for future Bank lending. The Bank's close dialogue with the Government on several policy aspects at the macro and micro levels will be pursued in connection with the implementation of the Sixth Development Plan. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERAI1ONS IN TUNISIA 1/ 25. Since 1962, the Bank has committed to Tunisia fifty-five loans and eleven IDA credits amounting respectively to $1,158.8 million and $70.0 million (net of cancellations) of which thirty-two loans and credits have been fully disbursed. Annex II contains a sununary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as of March 31, 1983, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. Project implementation is generally satisfactory. As of December 31, 1982, overall disbursements amounted to 55 percent of appraisal estimates, which compares favorably with other countries in the region. Disbursement performance for irrigation, industrial finance and port projects has generally been above the country average, while larger than average disbursement delays have been experienced! for agricultural credit, education, highway, urban and fisheries projects, due to project specific problems that are being addressed through supervision missions and sector discussions. In a number of sectors, important institutional improvements have been achieved, and autonomous agencies have been created or strengthened to ensure the efficient management of the related sectors or subsectors. 26. The Bank's lending strategy in Tunisia aims at supporting Government efforts to: (a) increase employment; (b) encourage more balanced growth and distribution of income among regions and income groups with particular empbasis on rural areas, and on operations targeted to low-income population groups; (c) promote export-oriented policies, technological changes and labor productivity; and (d) provide selective support tor the development of basic infrastructure and for institution building in key public services. An important feature of this strategy is to support the Tunisian authorities in the timely and well-coordinated preparation of projects through missions and advice by Bank staff, the assistance of the IBRD/FAO Cooperative Program, the use of the Bank's Project Preparation Facility, and the Technical Assistance Project (para. 27). The Bank is also supporting the Government in its efforts 1/ Part II is substantially the same as Part II from President's Report No. 3482-TUN of March 7, 1983, for a Third Urban Sewerage Project.  to increase the mobilization of domestic resources, and to secure cofinancing for the projects it assists. The latter is particularly important in view of the extent of Tunisia's external resource needs. 27. Within this broad framework, past lending emphasized support for long-term investments in infrastructure and social development. Lending for urban and social development, including water supply, sewerage, education, health, urban development, and the Tunis planning and public transport project has accounted for 31 percent of Bank/IDA commitments in Tunisia since 1971. Lending for transport, power and tourism infrastructure has accounted for 29 percent. Agriculture and fisheries have received 24 percent, and industrial and botel financing, mostly through the Economic Development Bank of Tunisia (BDET), 16 percent of total commitments. In addition, earlier this fiscal year, the Bank made a first loan for technical assistance aimed at improving the Government's capability for project identification and preparation. 28. In line with its lending strategy, the Bank will pursue its efforts in key sectors of the economy that offer prospects for economic and social development. It will also assist projects which address the needs of the least developed regions of the country, develop research capabilities, increase productivity, and help reduce the gap between income groups, and between urban and rural areas. Particular attention will be paid to employment creation, institution building, and agricultural development. In addition to the proposed flood protection project, proposed future lending would include projects in agriculture, industry and mining, energy, health and water supply. 29. The Bank's economic and sector work will continue to focus on strengthening the macroeconomic and sector base for our lending program; it will be more centered in the future on the analysis of economic issues and policies related to the necessary adaptation process from a petroleum exporting to a petroleum importing country. This analysis, which was included in the special economic report entitled "Tunisia - Review of the Sixth Development Plan (1982-86)" (No. 4137-TUN), dated March 16, 1983, will be pursued by an updating economic mission tentatively scheduled for early 1984. Further economic and sector work will include a review of employment creation issues, monitoring of incentive and pricing policies (in association with the study on effective protection), a study of the financial system, and a review of the education and management training, transport, energy and construction materials sectors. 30. The Bank and IDA accounted for about 19 percent of total public commitments to Tunisia during 1979-1980. Their share in total debt outstanding and disbursed at the end of 1980 (including loans from private sources) was 11 percent and their share in debt service during 1980 was 9 percent. The share of the Bank and IDA in Tunisia's disbursed external debt is expected to remain at about 10 percent and their share in the debt service to increase to about 13 percent through 1986. 31. IFC has invested in NPK Engrais (a fertilizer plant), in BDET, in Compagnie Financiere et Touristique (COFIT, a company to promote and invest in tourism projects), in Societe Touristique et Hoteliere RYM (a large hotel development), in Industries Chimiques du Fluor, which produces aluminum fluoride from local fluorspar for export, and in the Sousse-Nord integrated  8- tourism development project. IFC's net commitments in Tunisia totalled $9.9 million, as of March 31, 1983. Currently, IFC is looking into the possibility of financing a fertilizer plant which would produce phosphoric acid for exports. PART III - FLOOD PROTECTION AND STORMWATER DRAINAGE 32. General. The Atlas mountain chain, which runs from west to east about 280 km south of Tunisia's northern coastline, separates the country into two distinct regions. The nortb is semi-arid, with average annual rainfall of about 600 mm; the south is arid, with about 200 mm of average annual rainfall. Despite these relatively low rainfalls, bowever, precipitation is often torrential, leading to flash floods of varying intensities. 33. Sector Organization. The Directorate of Urban Hydraulics (DHU) of the Ministry of Equipment (ME) is responsible for constructing urban flood protection works. Maintenance and repair of this infrastructure is the reponsibility of the ME's regional directorates, but until now, there have been no specialized units within these directorates devoted to these tasks, and attention bas been given largely to maintenance of other infrastructure, especially roads. Under the proposed project, such a unit would be staffed, equipped and provided with adequate operating funds in the Regional Directorate of Sfax (para. 50). As regards the rest of the country, the Directorate of National Land Planning of the NE, which handles planning of flood protection measures, is currently preparing a countrywicle flood hazard map with the assistance of Stockholm University (para. 43). Studies and research related to rainfall and river flow are handled by the Bureau of Hydraulic Inventory and Research of the Ministry of Agriculture (MA), while rainfall data is collected by the MA and the Meteorological Service of the Ministry of Transport and Communications. The National Sewerage Authority (ONAS), under the authority of the ME, is responsible for urbain sewerage and stormwater drainage systems. 34. Bank Involvement in the Sector. The proposed project, would be the first Bank-financed project dealing solely with flood control in Tunisia. However, the Bank has assisted flood control efforts indirectly through stormwater drainage components of sewerage projects, and has been very active in the related water supply and sewerage sectors. It has helped inter alia to establish and develop the National Water and Sewerage Authorities (SONEDE and ONAS) and, through a number of projects, has engaged in close dialogue with these institutions and the Government on sector policies and operations. The Bank Group has made five loans and one credit for free-standing water supply projects, totalling $124.5 million, and is considering a national rural water supply project. Four loans and one credit have been provided for sewerage and stormwater drainage under the following four projects. The Tourism Infrastructure Project (Loan 858-TUN and Credit 329-TUN, both of September 28, 1972, for $24.0 million) included $16.64 million for sewerage facilities in six tourism zones. The project was revised as tbe result of changes in the Government's tourism development objectives in 1975 and suffered further delays due to related changes needed in the detailed design and additional  -9 time needed to complete detailed land-use plans and acquire land. The revised project was, bowever, completed in 1981 and is making a significant contribu- tion to Tunisia's tourism development program. The First Urban Sewerage Project (Loan 1088-TUN of February 18, 1975, for $28.0 million), which has recently been completed, belped establish ONAS as an effective operating agency, improve sewerage facilities in the Greater Tunis area, and clean up Lake Tunis by building a stormwater drainage canal along its shores. The Second Urban Sewerage Project (Loan 1675-TUN of April 13, 1979, for $26.5 mil- lion), which will improve and extend wastewater collection, treatment and disposal facilities and stormwater systems in the Greater Tunis and Greater Sfax areas, is progressing satisfactorily, although three stormwater collectors are being retendered as bids were considerably higher than anticipated and additional local funds had to be allocated (para. 40). The Third Urban Sewe- rage Project (Loan 2255-TUN, approved by the Board on March 29, 1983, for $34.0 million) will rehabilitate and expand the existing sewerage and storm- water systems, including the provision of sewage treatment, in 30 urban centers including four communities in the suburbs of Sfax. In addition, three urban development projects contain sewerage and stormwater drainage components. The first (Loan 937-TUN and Credit 432-TUN, both of October 5, 1973, for $18 mil- lion) included several sewerage studies, and the second and third (Loan 1705-TUN of May 31, 1979, for $19 million, and Loan 2223-TUN of January 11, 1983, for $25 million) include $6.6 million for improving and expanding water supply and sewerage systems in low income settlements. 35. Project Performance Audit Reports have been prepared on the first two water supply projects (PPAR No. 1902 of February 13, 1978) and on the third water supply project (PPAR No. 3914 of May 14, 1982). The reports concluded that all tbree projects had met their objective of providing water of accept- able quality for the increasing requirements of the population in the areas served, and contributed greatly towards the development of SONEDE into a technically sound and financially viable institution. However, the audit for the third project concluded that more detailed engineering should have been carried out prior to Board presentation. The Operations Evaluation Department (OED) has also published a Sector Operations Review on the Water Supply and Waste Disposal Program in Tunisia (Report No. 4146 of October 20, 1982) which emphasizes the success of the Bank's involvement in the water supply and waste disposal sector in Tunisia. This success is attributed to the Government's commitment to its sector policy objectives, and the harmony of the Bank's program with these objectives. 36. Project Area. Sfax is Tunisia's major port and second largest city, with a 1982 estimated population of about 313,000, including suburban areas. It is located on the east coast 267 miles south of the capital and consists of the port area, industrial zones on both sides of the port, a traditional quar- ter and, moving gradually to the west, densely-populated slumns, public and private residential developments and low density family homes built on garden lots. The latter are gradually being subdivided and commercial centers are springing up in the area as Sfax urbanizes. Because of its importance as a port, its industries, its strategic position as a service center for southern Tunisia and the agricultural base of its surrounding areas, Sfax has been growing at 2.7 percent per year, faster than the rest of the country; slightly more rapid growth (2.8 percent per year) is expected in the future.  - 10 - 37. A number of factors make Sfax particularly susceptible to flooding. Although the soil is quite porous, its absorptive capacity is reduced by a higb water table. Furthermore, Sfaa: lies at the low end of a gently sloping plain, whose gradient from the sea to about 15 kilometers inland averages about 2 to 3 percent. This makes it very difficult to evacuate stormwater. In addition, as urbanization pushes further inland, protective hedgerows built along the large garden lots, which help hold the soil, reduce runoff and increase absorption of rain water, are being destroyed. They are often replaced by walls which, along with new streets created in the area, exacer- bate the flood situation by blocking and redirecting the natural water flows, diminishing soil absorption and increasing the velocity of water runoff. Finally, since Sfax is located in a semi-arid area, its sparse vegetation tends to be overgrazed, reducing soil absorption capacity and constituting another flood enhancing factor. 38. The annual average rainfall in the Sfax region is about 200 mm, but annual precipitations ranging between 37 and 650 mm have been observed. Summers are dry, and most of the rain falls between September and December, and to a lesser extent in March. Floods usually occur in October, when rains are torrential and have recorded intensities as high as 20 mm per 15 minutes. The typical flood starts within hours of the onset of the rain, leaving little or no time to evacuate the population or their belongings. Because of the unpredictability of the storms, no advance warning system is feasible. While minor flooding generally occurs every year, major floods occurred in 1934, 1957, 1969, 1973 and 1982. The 1982 flood is discussed in more detail in paras. 41-42. The history and severity of floods in the Sfax area are such that only a few large commercial concerns have been able to obtain flood insurance coverage. Insurance companies have indicated, however, that they will extend insurance once the level of risk has been substantially diminished, at premiums which are considered reasonable. 39. Existing flood protection in Sfax consists largely of dry river beds (oueds) on two sides of the city which act as channels for flood water: Oued Khalifa leading into Oued Maou to the south and Oued Ezzit to the north. These oueds and their tributaries are dry for all but a few days of the year. Oued Maou has been leveed with earth dikes; the left bank levee contains a "blow-out" section designed to wash away under extreme flows in order to maintain the integrity of the rest of the system. Oued Ezzit is not leveed. Altbough a 1975 law (the Code des Eaux) forbidding construction in water courses has usually been enforced, there have been some squatters and other isolated exceptions, such as an olive oil factory, which cluttered the channel, along with trees and debris. After the 1982 flood, the olive oil factory, which bad blocked the free flow of water a.uring the flood, was removed at Government order. Furthermore, most homes which were built by squatters in the Oued Ezzit were washied away by the flood; those remaining will be removed during rehabilitation works. The oueds are rarely lined, protective structures such as bridge abutments and gabions are seldom used, and there are no adequately sized retention basins to reduce the velocity of rushing water and capture some of the sediment and debris it carries, which are only removed when deposits have created immediate problems. The tendency  - 11 to use the oueds for roadways and dumping sites has also exacerbated the situation. 40. As noted in para. 34, the Second Urban Sewerage Project includes three stormwater collectors which are needed to capture and remove stormwater from the impluvium of the inner city and which form an integral part of the flood protection measures envisaged in the proposed project. Construction has been held up because of a casb shortfall to finance the local cost component. This shortfall results from bids being substantially higher than the original estimates (TD 5.4 million as opposed to TD 2.8 million). During negotiations for the proposed project, the Government confirmed that it would make the required funds available, and indicated that construction would start by November 1983. In view of the importance of these collectors to the success of the project, contract(s) award for the collectors would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed loan (Loan Agreement, Section 5.01). 41. The 1982 Flood. On October 30 and 31, 1982, rains of unusual intensity fell to the north and west of Sfax. A total of 177.3 mm of rain was registered over a 13-hour period with a peak hourly rate of 45.2 ma. The storm has been estimated to have had a frequency of occurrence of once in 150 years, i.e a probability of occurrence of 0.66 percent. Although the "blow-out" section of the Oued Maou levee functioned as planned (para. 39), the intensity of the flood was such that other parts of the levee collapsed. The flood took at least 69 lives, destroyed about 700 houses, and damaged another 8,000 bouses as well as streets, roads, railways, briages and power supply lines and telecommunications equipment. It also took its toll on business, industrial and public buildings, equipment and supplies, and on the personal belongings of those whose houses were destroyed or damaged. Since most of the residents of Sfax lack institutional insurance (para. 38), they themselves must bear the considerable cost of repairing and replacing their own personal property. Apart from the loss of lives, total damages in Sfax have been conservatively estimated at about $75 million. This can be compared (in constant 1983 prices) with the about $4 million damage sustained from floods in normal years, and the about $23 million and $56 million, respective- ly, for the 1973 and 1969 floods, which had a frequency of occurrence of 18 and 50 years. 42. Soon after the severity of the 1982 flood was ascertained, the Tunisian Government and international community responded with the following assistance; $1.1 million from the Tunisian Government for immediate aid to the flood victims; disaster aid teams from France; disaster assistance personnel, tents and blankets from Germany; two large pumping trucks from the United States to help clean up drains; and $10.5 million in grants from oil surplus countries for damages sustained throughout the country. Emergency relief is a necessary but costly form of assistance in cases wbere economic means of protection are feasible. Flooding in Sfax is no exception to this rule. In view of the susceptibility of Sfax to future floods and the need to rehabili- tate damaged dikes quickly before the 1983 rainy season, the Government gave immediate attention to developing a project which would help provide long-term protection to the city at a reasonable cost. In 1977 and 1978, a French consulting firm (SOGREAH) bad produced a sewerage and storm drainage master  - 12 - plan proposing a belt canal which would evacuate stormwater runoff into the sea and Oued Maou. As no financing was available at that time, however, the project was not implemented. Soon after the 1982 flood, the Government re- vived the project and requested financial assistance from the Bank to carry it out swiftly. 43. Sectoral Approach. The technical, financial and economic approach of the proposed project has been elaborated in close cooperation with the DHU and is intended to be used as a model for future flood protection projects in the country. The Bank is reviewing and commenting on a study being carried out by the ME's Directorate of National Land Planning, assisted by Stockholm Univer- sity, to evaluate Tunisia's flood sensitive areas. This study would lead to the establishment of a national flood hazard map and would also look into possible increases in land values resulting from flood protection projects. Increased land values and resulting increased property taxes would contribute to cost recovery of flood protection projects. The study may lead to future bankable projects, using the approach established under the proposed project. PARL IV - THE PROJECT 44. Background. A feasibility study, consisting in part of the updated 1978 master plan and 100-year hydrological data, was urgently prepared in January 1983 by a team of 14 highly qualified specialists from a consortium of consulting firms (SOGREAH, CNR, SOTINFOR), under the guidance of the Bank. The project was appraised in January/February 1983 and negotiations were held in Washington from April 20 to 22, 1983. The Tunisian delegation was led by the Director General of the Budget, Ministry of Planning and Finance, and included the Director General of Urban Hydraulics, Ministry of Equipment (ME), and the General Manager of the National Sewerage Authority. The Staff Appraisal Report (No. 4421a-TUN, dated april 27, 1983) will be distributed separately; the main features of the project are summarized in the Loan and Project Summary and in Annex III of this report. A map showing the location of areas covered by the project is also attached. 45. Objectives. The main objective of the project is to minimize the flood damage potential in Sfax and neighboring communities. It would minimize loss of life, protect public and private property, reduce production losses, and ensure permanent and efficient maintenance of flood protection infrastructure through the strengthening of the Regional Directorate of the ME. 46. Description. The project would consist of: (i) rehabilitation of Oued Ezzit; (ii) rehabilitation and extension of the existing dikes along Oued Maou and Oued Khalifa; (iii) construction of a belt canal of about 8 km in length, located at about 4 km from the Sfax city center; (iv) construction of minor flood protection works in neighboring villages;  (v) provision of equipment to maintain flood protection infrastructure; and (vi) staffing, equipping and operation of a special section within the Sfax Regional Directorate of the ME, to be responsible for maintenance and repair of flood protection infrastructure. The project also provides for consultant services tor detailed engineering and works supervision needed for (i) - (iv) above. 47. Project Cost and Financing. The total estimated cost of the project (base costs, April 1983), excluding the front-end fee, is $47.9 million, of which $27.7 million is in foreign exchange. The cost estimates are based on the January 1983 feasibility study and recent bid awards for similar works in Tunisia, and are considered to be reasonably accurate. Taxes and duties estimated at $10.1 million have been included, as well as physical contingencies of 15 percent for civil works. Price contingencies of 10 percent for 1983, 9 percent for 1984 and 8 percent thereafter for local costs and 8 percent for 1983, 7.5 percent for 1984, 7 percent for 1985 and 6 percent thereafter for the foreign cost component have been included. The project provides for an estimated 125 man-months of foreign consulting services for the preparation of detailed engineering studies and bid documents, and 200 man-months of local consultants for works supervision. The estimated cost of these services, including foreign travel and subsistence, is $9,600 per man-month for foreign consultants and $3,500 per man-month for local consultants. 48. The proposed Bank loan of $25.0 million would finance 90 percent of the foreign exchange cost for civil works, equipment and consultant services, representing 52 percent of the total cost or 66 percent of the total cost net of taxes, as well as the front-end fee of $62,344. The remainder of project costs, representing 10 percent of the foreign exchange cost and the entire local cost component, would be financed by the Government. Government financing would be partly provided from the following special countrywide relief and repair funds: grants received from Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Conference Organization after the October 1982 flood; an exceptional national tax levied by the Tunisian Government after the 1982 flood; and a solidarity tax instituted by the Tunisian Government ten years ago to provide funds annually. Any additional requirements will be provided through normal budgetary procedures from the Government's own resources, or from the proceeds of a possible loan which the Government has requested from the African Development Bank. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Government would provide all the funds required for a timely completion of the project (Loan Agreement, Section 3.01). Details of project costs and financing are contained in the Loan and Project Summary. 49. Implementation. Project construction works would be implemented by the DHU, which would hire consultants to provide assistance for supervision when and where required. Detailed studies of the new works are well advanced  - 14 - and are expected to be completed by June 1983; the related bid documents should be ready by November 1983. Works would start before mid--1984 and be completed by mid-1988. Retroactive financing of up to $600,U0O is proposed for expenditures incurred for the preparation of studies and bid documents after January 1, 1983, but before expecteci loan signature (Loan Agreement, Schedule l, para. 4). 50. Maintenance. By Ministerial Decision of February 2, 198i, the Minister of Equipment specifically chargecl the Regional Directorate for Sfax with the responsibility for maintenance and repair of flood protection works. To execute this directive, a new Section in the Regional Directorate would be provided with staff, equipment and adequate annual operating budgets. Assurances that these would be provided in a manner satisfactory to the Bank were obtained during negotiations (Loan Agreement, Sections 3.01 and 3.02). This Section would be staffed by one engineer and 14 permanent support staff, which is considered adequate. During emergencies, temporary help woula be recruited and seconded by the Transportation Section of the Regional Directorate. Pending the recruitment of permanent staff anG the provision ot equipment, the Transportation Section is undertaking some of the most urgent repair works, which have to be completed before the 1983 rainy season. Funds for the first five years operation of the Flood Protection Infrastructure Section (estimated to amount, in constant 1983 prices, to TD 7U,000 per year by project completion) as well as for provision of equipment are included in the project costs. In order to provide the equipment as quickly as possible, advance contracting in accordance with Bank guidelines is appropriate. No expenditures for this equipment are expected to be incurred prior to signature of the proposed loan. 51. Procurement and Disbursement. Major civil works and equipment contracts, expected to total about $35 million, will be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) procedures according to Bank guidelines. Small contracts, which are not expected to attract international competition, will be procured through local competitive bidding (LUB), in accordance with Government procedures which are satisfactory to the Bank. In these cases, individual ceilings of $800,000 for civil works and $150,000 for equipment, and aggregate ceilings of $4.0 million and $0.6 million, respectively, would be applied. In addition, repair and rehabilitation works on force account would be executed by the DHU and the Flood Protection Infrastructure Section, after approval by the Bank and up to a maxirmum value of $1.5 million. Small works related to connections to, or deviations or protection of, telephone, gas, electricity, water, sewerage and railway services and lines, expected to amount to about $200,000, would be executed by the National Authorities for Post, Telephone and Telegraph (PTT), Electricity and Gas (STEG), Water (SONEDE), Sewerage (ONAS) and Railroads (SNCFT), under negotiated contracts. These arrangements are satisfactory to the Bank. All ICB bid documents, covering about 80 percent of total contract value, would be reviewed by the Bank on a prior to award basis. LCB contracts anca the PIT, STEG, SONEDE, ONAS and SNCFT contracts would be subject to ex-post reviews. Consultants would be employed in accordance with the Bank's guidelines. 52. The proposed Bank loan would be disbursed over a period of six years as follows: 58 percent of total expenditures for civil works, 90 percent of foreign expenditures and 63 percent of local expenditures for maintenance equipment, and 72 percent of total expenditures for consultant services. The  front-end fee would be withdrawn by and paid to the bank at loan effective- ness. Disbursements for works carried out by force account would be made against statements of expenditure, the supporting documentation for which would be retained for review by Bank supervision missions. 53. Accounting, Auditing and Reporting. The internal accounting system of the ME is adequate for the recording and control of project-related financial transactions, including maintenance and repair activities. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that an audit of project accounts would be submitted to the Bank within six months after the close of each fiscal year, and that these audits would include a review of statements of expenditures (Loan Agreement, Section 4.02). An understanding was reached that the Controller General of Finance, who has independent status and is acceptable to the Bank, would do this audit. The project implementation schedule was agreed upon during negotiations, and assurances were obtained that the ME would report quarterly on the progress of the project (Loan Agreement, Section 3.05(b)(iii)). 54. Cost Recovery. While the benefits of the proposed project would be widespread, the beneficiaries cannot be easily identified. First, different floods affect different parts of the city and it is impossible to predict which residents and the extent to which they may be affected by future floods. Second, the public infrastructure of the entire Sfax Governorate suffers from floods. Third, the whole Tunisian economy is affected because of the essential rail, highway, port and telecommunications links through Sfax. The Tunisian policy that the state should pay for the cost of flood prevention infrastructure out of general revenues is therefore acceptable. As noted in para. 48, part of the cost would be met by the proceeds of special national taxes for relief and repair works. In addition, municipal taxes including property taxes, which are pooled in a national fund (the Fonds Communs des Collectivites Locales) are allocated by the Government to, inter alia, construction and maintenance of flood protection works. 55. Benefits. The aim of the proposed project is to protect the population of Sfax from as great a flood magnitude as can be economically justified. Considering the topographic and land occupation characteristics of the city, an intercepting canal between the outside impluvium and the agglomerations to be protected is the most logical solution. Canal design took into consideration several alternatives of construction costs, types of lining, and ongoing maintenance costs to determine the least cost solution, at a discount rate of 10 percent, which is considered appropriate for Tunisia. The level of protection, i.e. size and capacity of the canal, was established in such a manner that the marginal cost of providing the protection equals the marginal benefits. The selected system will provide protection against a flood with a frequency of occurrence of once in 100 years. 56. The project would have a minimum economic rate of return of 17.5 percent. The cost stream includes the investment, operating and maintenance costs (free of taxes and duties) over a 40-year period for the project facilities, as well as for the three stormwater collectors (para. 40), whicb, although not financed under this project, form an integral part of the flood protection system. The benefit stream consists of the damage cost which would be averted by constructing the project, including the expected value of losses  - 16 - to public and private property as well as foregone production. Other important benefits, which are not quantified in this analysis, woula be the potential for reducing loss of life, and improvements to health and the environment. A sensitivity analysis indicates that if project costs increased by 10 percent, the rate of return would decline to 16.2 percent, and if benefits aecreased by 20 percent the rate of return would be 14.0 percent; a combination of both factors would result in a rate of return of 13.5 percent. 57. Environmental Impact. The environmental impact of the project woula be positive. It would contain and channel flood waters in a designed system and reduce erosion in the project area. It would also prevent the occasional spread of overflowing sewage and garbage over the area of inundation, drain currently stagnant bodies of water in the city and reduce related health hazards. 58. Risks. The project presents no unusual risks. The possibility of slippage and related cost overruns would be minimized by the hiring of consul- tants under the project to assist the DHU. The possibility that project flood protection works might deteriorate due to lack of maintenance would be mini- mized by project provisions to provide the new Flood Protection Infrastructure Section of the Sfax Regional Directorate with adequate staff, equipment and operating funds. Furthermore, the Bank would closely monitor the establish- ment of this new Section and implementation of the project. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Loan Agreement between the Republic of Tunisia and the Bank, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. Special features of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. Award of contract(s) for three stormwater collectors in Sfax, included in the Second Urban Sewerage Project (Loan 1675-TUN), would be a Special Condition of Effectiveness. 60. I am satisfied that the proposed Loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDaTION 61. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Loan. A. W. Clausen President Attachments April 29, 1983 Washington, D. C.  - 17 - ANNEX I Page 1 of 6 TABLE 3A TUNISIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET TUNISIA REFERESCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVER4CES AREA (THOUSAND S km. - MNOST RECENT ESTIMATE)8& TOTAL --163-6 MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTUlRAL 75.2 MOST RECENT NORTH AFRICA & KIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN GNP PER CAPITA (USS) 230.0 380.0 1310.0 1253.6 1902.0 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 165.2 289.7 589.9 713.5 1259.9 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, mID-YEAR (THOUSANON) 4221.0 5127.0 6354.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 36.0 43.5 51.7 47.3 65.7 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 10.1 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 17.8 9 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2080 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KH. 25.8 31.3 37.9 35.8 35.2 PER SQ. KE. AGRICULTURAL LAND 60.7 72.9 82.4 420.9 92.5 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 43.4 46.2 41.4 44.3 39.7 15-64 YES. 52.5 50.0 54.9 52.4 56.1 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.3 4.2 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.8 /c 1.9/c 2.1 2.8 2.4 1R18AM 3.2 3.8 3.9 4.6 3.8 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 48.9 41.8 34.9 41.2 31.4 CRUDE IDATi RATE (PER THOUSAND) 21.0 14.6 9.2 12.2 8.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.9 2.1 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. 29.2 180.9 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOKEN) .. 10.0 21.3 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 97.0 96.0 132.0 100.4 110.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 83.2 88.2 115.1/d 108.5 108.4 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.8 56.6 75.17;i 71.9 66.0 OF WiHICH ANIHAL AND PULSE 12.9 13.5 22.77d - 18.0 34.0 CUILD (AGES 1-4) HORTALITY RATE 36.1 24.5 9.8 15.1 5.6 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 48.1 54.2 60.2 56.9 64.2 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PFR TIDUSAND) 158.9 131.3 90.0 104.3 64.2 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPUIATION) TOTAL *- 49.0 70.0/. 59.1 65.6 URBAN .. .. 63.071 83.1 78.9 RURAL .. .. 77.071 39.8 43.9 ACCESS TO ECgRFTA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL * 62.0 .. .. 59.3 URBAN .. 100.0 .. .. 75.3 RURAL .- 34.0 60.0/e .. 30.0 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 10026.1 5934.0 3576.2 4015.5 1617.3 POPUIATION PER NURSING PERSON .. 727.5 1167.8 1802.2 1063.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 405.2 409.1 463.7 641.7 477.4 URBJN 277.3/f 302.8 340.7/e 538.3 679.8 RURAL 1040.97f 1269.3 1275.87T 2403.3 1903.4 AII1SSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 24.1 25.0/. 25.5 27.3 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL *- 51 *- URBAN .. 5.1.. RURAL .. 5.1 j AVERAGE iMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOK TOTAL 3.2 URBAN 2 7 g RURAL 3.6 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. 24.0 URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..  -18 - ANNEX I Page 2 of 6 TABLE 3A TUNISIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET TUNISIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVE%AGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- MIDDLE INCOME MOST RECENT NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE INCOME 1960 lb 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b MIDDLE EAST LATIN AJIERICA 4 CARIBbEAN EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 66.0 100.0 102.,0 88.7 104.3 MALE 88.0 121.0 119.,0 104.5 106.4 FEMALE 43.0 80.0 85.0 72.5 103.3 SECONDARY: TOTAL 12.0 23.0 25.0 39.7 41.3 MALE 19.0 33.0 31.0 49.3 40.4 FEMALE 5.0 13.0 19.0 29.0 41.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) 23.5 11.1 35.0 10.1 33.7 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMAIRY 61.1 47.5 39.2 34.1 29.9 SECONDARY !.88 27.8 20.4 23.7 16.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 15.5 24.0/ 62.0 43.3 79.1 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPUIATION 10.5 13.0 18.3/S 17.8 42.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 40.3 75.7 94.8 131.3 270.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.1 14. r 44.1 107.7 NEWSPAPER (-DAILY GENERAL INTEREST-) CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 19.0 16.0 43.8 31.5 63.7 CINEMA ANNUAL ATrENDANCE PER CAPITA 2.0 .. 1.,5/d 1.7 2.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 1137.9 1214.8 1631.1 FEALFLE (PERCENT) 6.0 7.7 8.3 10.6 24.i AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 56.0 50.0 34.0 42.4 31.3 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 18.0 21.0 33.0 27.8 23.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 27.0 23.7 25.7 26.0 33.6 MALE 50.2 44.2 46.5 46.2 50.4 FDtALE 3.3 3.6 -T3 5.6 16.8 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEOLDS .. .. 17.0/h HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. 42. ... LOwEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. 6. O7. LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. 15.07. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 204.0/d 279.2 RURAL .. .. 97.07a 178.6 184.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOmE LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 193.0/d 403.6 518.0 RURAL .. .. 193.07i 285.6 371.1 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URA .. .. 20.0/d 22.1 RURAL .. .. 15.07i 30.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indiLcators depends on availability of data end i.o not uniform. /b Unless otherwis noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recont Estimate, between 1978 and 1980. /c Due to migrotion population growth rate is lower than rate of natural increase; /d 1977; /e 1976; If 1962; /S 1966; /h 1975. May, 1982i  Page 3 of 6 Sat..: AI.the.ag o asatdanft ea2e1aceb ettnh aaaCZ.d_ t -e ~,AYJJjC y bartotbv tad aIo.c