Determinants of recent fertility decline in Sri Lanka

PHN Technical 1iotes 'RES 5. THE WORLD BANK DETERMINANTS OF RECENT FERTILITY DECLINE 1N SRI LANKA lyl July 1983 Population, Health and Nutrition Department This paper is one of a series issuedby the Population, *Health and Nutrition Department for the information and * gu'idance of Bank staff working in these sectors. The * views and opinions expressed in"this paper'do not neces-* *sarily reflect those of the Bank'.*  This report is ab tof fertility decline in Sri,: Lanka ini the post-1960 period.---,The paper concludes that a combination of historical ci'rcumstances and congeries of social, economic, and-cultural 'factors were respon nbsible 'f or, the initiation' of the decline in Sri Lanka. The fertility decline was sustained by,'rapid decreases-in infant and. child mortality, rapid increases in literacy, especially female literacy,. lessening of gender inequalities and elevation of women's status, lessening of inequalities through direct and indirect taxes, and the family p'lanning program. The Sri Lankan example gives added support to the point that a'. family planning program can have a noticeable'impact,'on' the fertility level of a,population even without,urbanization, industrialization, and other hallmarks of the Western industrial complex. -- Prepared'by N -. Krishnan Namboodiri, .AA.S. Peiri.s', H.R. Gunasekara, Soma Perara, Sulekha Patel, and Kathie -. Ladd Population, Health and Nutriti'on Department July 1983 .,'. . ".',.  DETERMINANTS OF RECENT FERTILITY DECLINE IN SRI LANKA by N. Krishnan Namboodiri W.A.A.S. Peir.s H.R. Gunasekara Soma Perara Sulekha Patel Kathie W. Ladd Report No. 3 from RPO 671-70: Case Studies of the Determinants of Fertility Decline in South India and Sri Lanka  PREFACE This report is one of four on the World Bank's research project: "Case Studies on the Determinants of Fertility Decline in Sri Lanka and South India" (RPO 671-70). The other three reports in the series are: Anomaly of the Fertility Decline in Kerala (by K.C. Zachariah, 1983) Determinants of Fertility Decline in Rural Karnataka (by N. Baskara Rao, P. M. Kulkarni, and P. Hanumantha Rayappa, 1983). A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility Decline in Sri Lanka and South India (by K. C. Zachariah and B. Newlon, 1983). The research project was sponsored by the World Bank, the United Nation's Fund for Population Activities and the Governments of India and Sri Lanka. The project component in Kerala was carried out by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Trivandrum, and in Karnataka by the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore. In Sri Lanka, the Bank collaborated with the Department of Census and Statistics, Colombo. The costs of the study were met by the World Bank, the UNFPA, and by the collaborating insti- tutions. On behalf of the Bank and as the principal researcher of the project, I wish to acknowledge my thanks to the governments and organizations which helped carry out this project--to the UNFPA for providing partial financial support; to the Governments of India and Sri Lanka for collaborating with the Bank on the project; and to the Bureau of Economics and Statistics in Trivandrum, the Institute for Social and Economic Change in Bangalore, and the Department of Census and Statistics in Colombo for carrying out the studies in their respective areas. * - ii -  This report was prepared mostly by Dr. Krishnan Namboodiri. Besides writing Chapters III, V, VI, VIII and the summary and conclusions, he put together the contribution by the other authors. Chapters I, II and IV were written at the Department of Census and Statistics, Colombo by W.A.A.S. Peiris (Chapter I), H.R. Gunasekara (Chapter II) and by Soma Perara (Chapter IV). Chapter VII was written by Sulekha Patel. Kathie Ladd co-authored Chapter VI with Mr. Namboodiri. The project could not have been carried out without the whole hearted support of Dr. Wickrema Weerasooria, Secretary, Ministry of Plan Implementation, and Mr. W.A.A.S. Peiris, Director, Department of Census and Statistics. Mr. Peiris organized the field work very efficiently and transferred the survey data on to computer tapes in a short period of time. The success of the project owes a great deal on the support received from th.ese two persons. Mr. Francis Perera managed the administrative and financial matters of the project in Colombo. This project was designed with considerable assistance from Dr. S. A. Meegama. His experience in the Sri Lanka Fertility Survey (WFS) of which he was the local director was of considerable help in the development of the questionnaire and designing of the sampling scheme. Judith Kovenock and Kathie Ladd provided invaluable assistance in data processing. The arduous task of editing and typing of this report was done by Bruce R. Geyer. I am thankful to all these people for their help in carrying out the project in Sri Lanka and bringing this out as a Bank report. K. C. Zachariah Population, Health and Nutrition Dept.  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Preface ..................... * .. * * * * * * *..... ii List of Maps ............... sO............ *.............. ..zQ......... . v List of Figures ............... e@@s@@@@e*e***n****** .................................... . . vi Li st o f Tab l es. . .. .. .. . .. . .. e . . o o. . . .o . . o. . . . o.... e o o. . . . . . . . . vii i Summary and Conclusion...-..... .o. .... o... o....... . .... A xviii CHAPTER I: DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND AND SURVEY DESIGN- ............ 1 CHAPTER II: DATA ............ ..... .. ..... o ............ ........... 20 CHAPTER III: AGE AT MARRIAGE ............... .... o ... ......... - 33 Appendix to Chapter III.. ... ............. 72 CHAPTER IV: FERTILITY TRENDS AND.DIFFERENTIALS ...... .. - ......... .... 97 Appendix to Chapter IV. ......- ... .. ...... 0... 139 CHAPTER V: FERTILITY PREFERENCES, INTENTIONS AND BEHAVIOR .............. 143 CHAPTER VI: STERILIZATION-. -o... ... ...... .. ......... . 196 CHAPTER VTII: CURRENT USE OF CONTRACEPTION: PATTERNS AND DETERMINANTS..... ........ .. .... ............ ..e 246 Appendix to Chapter VII ....................... 277 CHAPTER VIII: SUMMARY, INTERPRETATION, AND CONCLUSION.... .............. 293 Bibliography.............. .......... . .... .. ............... e. 0 351  LIST OF MAPS Page Map 1.1: Sri Lanka (IBRD 3839R3) ...................................... 8 Map 2.1: Sri Lanka: World Fertility and Survey Zones (IBRD 17151) ................................................. 21 Map 4.1: Sri Lanka: The Six Zones--A General Ethnic and Socio-Economic Breakdown ................................... 106  - vi - LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1: Age Specific Fertility Rates, 1953/63/70/74 ......... 6 Figure 1.2: Sri Lanka's Social Indicators in Relation to Expected Values for Its Per Capita Income (S130) in 1975 16 Figure 3.1 5- and M- Curves Relating Consumption to Daughter's Marriage .......... ............................... 42 Figure 4.1 Parity Progression Ratios, 1975 and 1979: Confined to Ever-Married Women Age 45-49 at the Survey Dates 102 Figure 5.1 Path Diagram of Factors Affecting Fertility in the Interim (1975-79) ............ ................. 158 Figure 5.2 Recursive Model Treating Duration of Marriage (D) and Wife's Education (E) as Exogenous Variables, and Parity as of Time 1 (P), Number of Sons Living as of Time 1 (S), Number of Additional Children Wanted as of Time 1 (I), Contraceptive Use Status as of Time 1 (U), and Number of Live Births in the Follow-up Period (F) as Endogenous Variables .......................... 163 Figure 5.3a Overall-Sample Model ................. ............ 184 Figure 5.3b Sinhalese Model ................. .......... 185 Figure 5.3c Sri Lankan Tamil Model .......................... 186 F.igure 5.3d Sri Lankan Moor Model ..............4 187 Figure 6.1 A Pictorial Representation of a Hypothetical Cohort Whose Size Gets Diminished as its Members Undergo Sterilization or Are Censored ....................... 210 Figure 6.2 Cumulative Hazard Function Graph: Sterilizations for Ever-Married and Married Fecund Women, by: a(i),(ii) Ethnicity ... ....... ..... ... 216 b(i),(ii) Religion .. ............... ............ 218 c(i),(ii) Residence .............................. 221 d(i),(ii) Education .......... ... .........................223 e(i),(ii) Literacy .......................................... 225 f(i),(ii) Work Pattern ............... ............. I .......... 227 g(i),(ii) Excess Fertility ............................. 229  - vii - Figure 6.3 Cumulative Hazard Function Graph: Factors Within Ethnicity--Education: a(i),(ii) Sinhalese ... ........... .................. ..a.......a. 233 b(i),(ii) Sri Lankan Tamils ............a...*.*.**.a.... ....ae . 235 c Indian Tamils ................ a..aa.aaa... aa...a..aa a 237 d Sri Lankan Moors *........................... ..... 238 Figure 6.4 Cumulative Hazard Function Graph: Showing Difference in Popularity of Sterilization Between 1969-74 and 1974-79, by a Ever-Married Women ....... ..................a........ 240 b Married Fecund Women Who Want No More Children ...... 241  - viii - LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.1 Population Growth, 1871-1971 ....................... 3 Table 1.2 Singulate Mean Age at Marriage, 1946/53/63/71 ...... 5 Table 1.3 Expectation of Life at Birth, Selected Years 1945-71 .............. . ...................... . 10 Table 1.4 Selected Social Indicators ...........15 Table 2.1 Selected Census Blocks by Zones and Strata .......... 23 Table 2.2 Staff Deployment for Field Work ....... ....... 26 Table 2.3 Response Rates by Zone ...... ...... 29 Table 2.4 Percentage Distribution of the Sri Lanka Population by Single Years in the Age Group 0-4 and Sex Ratios for the 1981 Census and the Household Schedule Data from the Survey ... . . ............ ......... ......... 30 Table 2.5 Percentage Distribution of the Sri Lanka Population, by Five-Year Age Groups and Sex .................... 31 Table 2.6 Blended Percentages of Myers' Index for the 1971 and 1981 Censuses and Household Schedule Data from the Survey ...................................... 32 Table 3.1 Age Pattern of Never-Married Males and Females, 1946/ 53/63/71/75 ........................................ 37 Table 3.2 Never-Married Persons in the Household Population, by Age and Sex (1975 Survey) ........39 Table 3.3 Percent Distribution of Successive Marriage Cohorts, by Age at Marriage (1975 & 1979 Surveys) ....... 52 Table 3.4 Mean and Standard Deviation of Age at Marriage of Ever-Married Women Age 25-49 and 25-29 and Married Before Reaching Age 25, by Selected Characteristics 54  - ix - Table 3.5 Incremental R2 Attributable to Individual Regressors [(i) when introduced in the regression in the sequence indicated (A1R2), and (ii) when introduced last (A2R2)]; Multivariate Analysis of Age at iarriage--Ever-Married Women of Selected Age Groups Married Before Reaching Age 25 .............. 59 Table 3.6 Parameter Estimates; Multiple Regression Analysis of Age at Marriage--Ever-Married Women of Selected Age Groups, Married Before Reaching Age 25 ......... 62 Table 3.7 Incremental R2 Attributable to Individual Regressors [(i) when introduced in the regression in the sequence indicated (AlR2) and (ii) when introduced last CA2R2)]; Multivariate Analysis of Age at Marriage--Ever-Married Women of Age 25 Years or Over arnd Married at Age Below 25, by Ethnic Group 63 Table 3.8 Parameter Estimates; Multiple Regression Analysis of Age at Marriage--Ever-Married Women, of Age 25-49 and Married at Age Below 25, in Different Ethnic Groups ...................... ..................... 64 Table 3.9 Ideal Age for Brides and Grooms--Ever-Married Woman's Responses ............ 0............ 0*****@@@*s .....0 .............. 67 Table 3.10 Mean Age at First Marriage of Wives; the Corresponding Figure for Husbands; and Mean Bride's and Groom's Ages Considered Ideal by.the Wives, by Selected Characteristics .............. 68 Table 3.11 Mean Age at First Marriage of Wives; the Corresponding Figure for Husbands, and Mean Bride's and Groom's Ages Considered Ideal by the Wives by Duration of Marriage (Below 25 Years) and Wife's Age at Marriage ........ ....69 Table 3A.1 Mean and Standard Deviation Age at Marriage of Husbands of Age 30-39, Married Only Once and Living with Spouse .... ......... *...................... 76 Table 3A.2 Multivariate Analysis of Husband's Age at First Marriage; Incremental R2 Attributable to Regressors (A1R2, the incremental R2 attributable to a regressor if it is entered-in the sequence shown and A2R2 the corresponding incremental R2 if the regressor is entered last)--Husbands, Married Only Once and Living with Spouse ........ 77  Table 3A.3 Multivariate Analysis of Husband's Age at Marriage (A1R2, the incremental R2 attributable to a regressor if it is entered in the sequence shown and A2R2 the corresponding incremental R2 if the regressor is entered last)--Husbands, Married Only Once and Living with Spouse ................. .......... 78 Table 3A.4 Multivariate Analysis of Husband's Age at Marriage; Parameter Estimates; Regression I Including Year Married among the Regressors and Regression II Excluding It--Husband- of Age 30-39, Married Only Once and Living with Spouse .........................79 Table 3B.1 Mean Expected Age at Marriage by Selected Characteristics and the Effect of the Characteristics on the Expected Age at Marriage When Current Age is Taken into Account--Never-Married Females and Males 86 Table 3B.2a Traits Desired in Prospective Husbands--Never-Married Females ........** ***** **................. 89 Table 33.2b Traits Desired in Prospective Husbands--Never-Married Males . . ....... ..... ......................... 90 Table 3B.3a Association Between Self's Educational Attainment and Desired Level of Education for Prospective Spouse--Never-Married Females ........................ 91 Table 3B.3b Association Between Self's Educational Attainment and Desired level of Education for Prospective Spouse--Never-Married Males ......................... 92 Table 3B.4a Distribution of Never-Married Females of Different Age Groups, by Desired Age of their Prospective Husbands . ....... .................... ............... 93 Table 3B.4b Distribution of Never-Married Males of Different Age Groups, by Desired Age of their Prospective Wives ..... . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 94 Table 3C.1 Estimated Impact of Changes in Age Pattern of Nuptiality on Fertility in Sri Lanka from 1965-1971 and from 1971-1974 .................................. 95 Table 4.1 The Percent Distribution of Ever-Married and Currently-Married Women of Age 45-49 Years, According to Parity (WFS and WBFS) ....................... 100  - xi - Table 4.2 The Percent Distribution of Women Age 45-49 Years, According to Number of Children Ever-Born (New and Re-interviewed Respondents) ................ 104 Table 4.3 Association Between Background Variables Shown by the Percentage Distribution of the Sample by Pairs of Background Variables ........ .................. 107 Table 4.4 Differentials in Completed Fertility--Unadjusted and Adjusted for other Variables ........ ......... 115 Table 4.5 Mean Parity at the Time of the WFS and 1979 Survey, by Age at that Time ................*....... 124 Table 4.6 Mean Parity by Age--All New Respondents, Re-interviewed Respondents and Respondents Who Got Married after WFS . ............................... 126 Table 4.7 Mean Parity by Years Since First Marriage--Ever- Married Women (WFS and WBFS) ..................... 126 Table 4.8- Differentials in Mean Fertility of the 10-19 Year Marriage Cohort--Unadjusted and Adjusted for other Variables ... . . .. o.. . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Table 4.9 Percentage of Women Reporting a Current Pregnancy, by Age (WFS and WBFS) ........................... 134 Table 4.10 Age Specific Fertility Rates and Marital Fertility Rates for 1963 and 1973 (WFS and WBFS) ........... 136 Table 4A Current Marital Status by Age--Women in Household Population of Age 12-49 Years ................. 140 Table 4B Births in the Calendar Year 1978 by Age of Mother at the Time of the Birth ....................... 141 Table 4C Sample Weights by Zone ........................ 142 Table 5.1 Regression Coefficients (Dependent Variable-- Fertility Preference) .........*............. 145 Table 5.2 Multiple R2 of Different Regressions (Dependent Variable--Fertility Preference) ... .............. 145 Table 5.3 Multiple R2 of Different Regressions (Dependent Variable--Fertility Preference of Re-interviewed Subsample) .......................... ...... *s*@