Niger - Second Forestry Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FILE COPY Report No. P-3244-NIR REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER FOR A SECOND FORESTRY PROJECT March 17, 1982 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients ody In the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed witbout Word Dak authorzation.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - CFA Franc (CFAF) CFAF 1 million - US$ 3,704 US$l - CFAF 270 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CCCE - Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (France) FAC - Fonds d-Aide et de Cooperation (France) INRAN - Institut National de la Recherche Agronodique du Niger IPDR - Institut Pratique de Developpeeient Rural MDR - Ministry of Rural Development PPF - Project Preparation Facility ONAHA - Office National des Amenagements Rydro-Agricoles  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF NIGER SECOND FORESTRY PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: Republic of Niger Amount: SDR 8.8 million (US$10.1 million) Terms: Standard Project The project would consist of: (a) improving supplies of Description: fuelwood, building poles, tree fodder and other minor forest products for the rural and urban population with special emphasis on a considerably expanded rural par- ticipation in afforestation; and (b) a continuation of the education and training process started under the first project (Credit 800-NIR), through reinforcing the Forestry Department, helping the Government develop a better forestry policy and testing different approaches to forestry development in Niger in particular and the Sahel in general. Project Risks: The project would inevitably involve risks given the lack of suitable technical packages for reforestation and the newness of large scale tree plantations in Niger. Perhaps the most risky component is the rural tree plantations and the uncertainty as to the immediate responsiveness of the rural population to participate in the operation. Therefore, and although the Niger small farmer environment seems quite receptive to reforestation, the component would be subject to ongoing evaluation to steer it toward desired objective. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   Seccird Forestry Project Estimated Costs: Foreign Local Total -------US$ million------ 1. Civil Works 0.2 0.5 0.7 2. Equipment 1.7 0.5 2.2 3. Field Forestry Works 1/ 1.2 2.4 3.6 4. Operating Staff - 1.2 1.2 5. Expatriates and Consultants 1/ 2.2 - 2.2 6. Other Operating Costs 0.4 1.2 1.6 Total Base Costs 5.7 5.8 11.5 Physical Contingencies 0.3 0.4 0.7 Price Contingencies 1.9 2.7 4.6 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 7.9 8.9 16.8 Financing Plan: Foreign Local Total % IDA 4.9 5.2 10.1 60 CCCE 1.4 2.2 3.6 21 FAC 1.6 - 1.6 10 Government - 1.5 1.5 9 Total 7.9 8.9 16.8 100 Estimated Disbursements: FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 Annual 0.5 1/ 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 Cumulative 0.5 2.3 4.0 5.9 8.3 10.1 1/ Includes US$0.4 million PPF advance.  - iii - Rate of Return: The estimated average ERR is 14 percent Staff Appraisal Report: No. 3632-NIR Map: IBRD 15903  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER FOR A SECOND FORESTRY PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit for the equivalent of Special Drawing Rights 8.8 million (US$10.1 million) on standard IDA terms to the Republic of Niger to help finance a proposed second forestry project. The CCCE and FAC would contribute US$3.6 million and US$1.6 million respectively to the project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report entitled "Economic Memorandum: Niger" (RN 1109a-NIR) was distributed to the Executive Directors on May 13, 1976. An economic updating mission visited Niger in February 1981, and the main findings of the mission are incorporated in the following paragraphs. Annex I contains country data. Background 3. Until recently, Niger was a resource-poor country. Consumption as a proportion of GDP was high and sometimes in excess of domestic production. Accordingly, gross domestic savings were very low or negative, and most investment, modest at 12 percent of GDP, was financed by foreign savings. However, the situation changed in the 1975-80 period, reflecting rapidly growing uranium revenues: in 1979, at the peak of the uranium boom, uranium mining accounted for 16 percent of GDP, about 80 percent of total export earnings, and 39 percent of government revenue. As a result, gross domestic savings, which represented 9 percent of GDP in 1975 grew to 14 percent of GDP in 1979, while the country's resource gap decreased substantially from 14 percent in 1975 to less than 8.5 percent of GDP in 1979. However, with the sharp drop in uranium prices in late 1980, which heralded a depression in the uranium market that is expected to last into the latter part of the decade, uranium revenues declined to less than 10 percent of total budget receipts in 1981. With a per capita GDP of about US$330 in 1980, Niger remains among the 29 least developed countries of the United Nations. 4. Despite the somewhat brighter outlook offered by uranium, Niger continues to face a number of formidable natural, economic, and human con- straints to development which will have to be overcome or alleviated to ensure self-sustained economic growth in the long-run. First, many Govern- ment institutions are still in an embryonic state of development. Second, four fifths of the country is desert or semi-desert and in the rest, which supports about 80 percent of the population, soil fertility is low and pro- bably declining. In addition, rainfall is often irregular or inadequate and  the costs of irrigation schemes are unusually high. Third, the country's land-locked position induces high transport costs and sometimes serious delays in the delivery of imports. Finally, Niger has a primary school enrollment rate of only about 17 percent, which is one of the lowest rates in the world and has led to acute shortages of literate and qualified personnel at all levels and in many fields in the economy. These problems are now being compounded by the sharply declining uranium revenues. With an ambitious investment program predicated on maintenance of the real prices and increasing production, the five-fold drop in uranium revenues to less than 10 percent of total budget receipts in 1981 is already being felt in increasing budgetary stringency. Economic Growth 5. Real GDP grew at 3 percent per year during the six-year period 1972-78, while population grew at 2.7 percent. Between 1972 and 1975, real GDP recorded negative growth, mainly as a result of severe drought-induced setbacks in agriculture and livestock production, compounded by the resulting recession in agro-industries. In the subsequent three years (1976-78), the economy picked up considerably to achieve an annual growth rate of over 9 percent; however, 1979 and 1980 show some decline, moving to 7.5 percent in 1979 and 6 percent in 1980. This reflects the impact of uranium mining and related activities such as transport and construction, on the economy. Production of uranium concentrates increased rapidly from some 400 tons to about 2,000 tons between 1971 and 1978, while its export prices almost quintupled from US$20/kg to US$98/kg. However, with prices falling to about US$62/kg in 1981 after remaining virtually constant in 1978-80, the constraining effects are likely to limit GDP growth to 4 percent or less. Despite the vicissitudes in the uranium sector, growth in traditional sectors, in particular agriculture and agro-industry, has been modest. Public Finance 6. Over the last seven years, sound fiscal management, with the help of rapidly rising revenues from uranium mining, had enabled the Government to generate substantial current budgetary surplus. This amounted to about CFAF 9.6 and 16.1 billion in FY76/77 and FY77/78 respectively. Results for 1978/79 show a further improvement to about CFAF 24 billion. These surpluses permitted rapid growth of capital expenditures in absolute as well as in relative terms from CFAF 2.6 billion in FY75/76 (about 10 percent of total budgetary expenditures) to CFAF 13.6 billion in FY77/78 (32 percent) and CFAF 17.6 billion in 1978/79. As a result, the contribution of budgetary savings to total public investment increased from 10 percent in FY70/71 to more than 28 percent in FY78/79. As a result of the drop in prices, however, the budgetary savings ratio is likely once again to drop below 10 percent. On the other hand, the tax base has been undergoing significant changes in recent years. First, Government revenue relies heavily upon uranium mining, revenues from which have declined five-fold since 1979/80. Second, in an attempt to ease the tax burden of low-income groups, a number of measures were introduced: livestock head taxes were abolished in FY74/75 following the 1973 drought, the  head tax levied on the population aged 14 years and over was completely abolished in FY77/78, and income taxes on monthly salaries below CFAF 15,000 were eliminated beginning FY77/78. The foregone revenues from those sources are estimated at about CFAF 4 billion. These fiscal measures reflect Govern- ment's increasing concern with the problems of social equity and particularly the fate of the rural poor. However, at a time of considerable budgetary stringency imposed by the drop in uranium prices, the results in question are making the Government's overall budgetary situation even more difficult. 7. The annual rate of inflation averaged 8 percent over the period 1972-75, but rose to over 20 percent in 1976 and 1977. Due to the normal harvests in 1977/78, inflation as measured by the implicit GDP deflator levelled off somewhat in 1978 at an annual rate of 12 percent, where it has remained since. Three major factors contributing to recent inflation include the supply constraint in basic commodities, especially in food, rising prices for imported goods, and rapid monetary expansion. Balance of Payments 8. In spite of the rapid increase in export earnings from uranium, Niger's balance of payments continues to be characterized by a trade deficit: the imports required for operating the economy as well as for new capital formation including development of new uranium mining still exceed foreign exchange earnings. This trade deficit was, however, more than compensated for by the inflow of foreign private and public capital so that the overall balance of payments showed a substantial surplus until 1978. However, esti- mates indicate an overall deficit of about US$2.5 million in 1979, the first in some years. The fall in uranium prices is likely to bring about a con- siderable reduction in total earnings in 1981 and beyond. Development Planning 9. The Five-Year Development Plan, 1979-1983, was only recently pub- lished and identifies Niger's basic objectives as: (a) the modernization of agriculture and livestock production; (b) a high rate of economic growth spurred by investments in mining, industry, transportation and communica- tions; (c) human resources development; and (d) a gradual reduction of regional disparities in income. On an annual basis, the public investment target implies an increase of 220 percent over the 1976-78 Plan. About 30 percent of public investments over the Plan period will be allocated to rural development, 30 percent to mining, energy and industry, 22 percent to educa- tion and health, and 18 percent to transportation and communications. The total investment target of the Plan is US$3.5 billion in 1979 prices with US$1.8 billion for public investment. Implementation of 1976-78 Plan fell far short of its targets, largely due to a limited absorptive capacity and difficulties in project preparation, caused primarily by manpower constraints. These are likely to continue being a major barrier to the implementation of the new Plan. In addition, the downward trend in uranium prices can be expected to set further limitations on plan implementation; 42 percent of public investments in the Plan are set out for Government financing.  -4- Foreign Aid 10. Between 1971 and 1977 Niger's total recorded net in-flow of re- sources from DAC countries and multilateral agencies averaged about US$80 million annually, of which 95 percent was on concessionary terms. The Euro- pean Development Fund (FED), France, Germany and Canada remain Niger's major aid donors, although recently Arab oil-producing countries have increased their lending programs to Niger. However, in the two year period between 1978 and 1980 external public debt more than doubled, rising from about US$400 billion to US$855 million at end 1980, although indications are that the pace of commercial borrowing dropped substantially in 1981. About 25 percent of new commitments originated from private banks and suppliers. Given the short grace periods and high interest rates now prevailing, debt-servicing obligations of the government doubled over the previous year in FY1980/81, and now account for 14 percent of budget revenues. 11. Total debt outstanding increased by US$332 million to US$885 million during 1980; only US$355 million of that total had been disbursed by the end of 1980. Bilateral loans (disbursed and undisbursed), 53 percent of which were received from France, were only US$290 million of the 1980 total. Multilateral loans amounted to US$312 billion, US$138.1 million of which represented IDA credits (16 percent of overall indebtedness). The remainder US$283 billion, was divided almost equally between suppliers' credits and banks, and given the heavy interest rates prevailing on these loans, overall debt service, now only US$21 million, will rise nearly five-fold to US$98.8 million in 1983, which, if uranium prices fail to rise, will exceed 20 percent of exports as compared with 3.3 percent in 1979. 12. Perhaps the major issue which Niger faces is how to scale down its ambitious 1979-83 Plan to expenditure levels which are consistent with the sharply reduced revenue offtake from the uranium sector. In light of this situation, the Bank is discussing with the Government the need to tailor its investment plan to a level consistent with its future resources and debt service capacity. Whatever the evolution of these discussions, it is abundantly clear that Niger continues to face substantial physical and human constraints, particularly with a literacy rate of 8 percent, near the lowest in the world. Given a resource situation with little promise for the next five to ten years, the extremely low level of development and the largely unmet basic needs of the population, Niger will continue to require concessionary, as well as local cost, financing for some time to come.  - 5 - PART II - WORLD BANK OPERATIONS IN NIGER 13. Nineteen IDA credits, including two supplementary credits, have so far been approved for Niger totalling US$158.2 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of these credits as of January 31, 1982 and notes on the execution of on-going projects. Past Bank Group lending was heavily concentrated on transport, communications and rural development. Of the seventeen projects approved to date, five aimed at expanding and upgrading the domestic road network, one provided for improvement and extension of existing facilities at Niamey international airport, one for the installation of a more reliable telecommunications system, and one for educational planning. The Association's lending to date for the rural sector includes eight projects for drought relief, rural development, forestry, irrigation and livestock. Disbursement performance is similar to the average for other countries in the region. 14. In keeping with Niger's overall development strategy, future Bank Group lending will continue efforts in the rural and transport sectors, but also increasingly support Government efforts to diversify the economic structure, expand modern sector employment, and meet manpower requirements. We will also continue to advise Government on policy issues and options through our economic and sector work. 15. In agriculture, Bank Group lending supports Government's generally sound strategy, namely regional projects aimed at increasing production, gradual development of the country's irrigation potential, provision of services to pastoralists, and crop-livestock integration. Due to the severity of the natural constraints and the present state of technical knowledge, agricultural and livestock development in Niger will be slow and difficult. However, experience with ongoing projects has demonstrated that potential does exist, and can be realized with the provision of appropriate inputs and extension services. In transport, we plan to place emphasis on assistance for the construction of a network of secondary and access roads to support the Government's agricultural program; a feeder roads project approved in FY79 marks a first step towards this objective. We shall also continue our support for the maintenance of the existing infrastructure. The Bank is evaluating a technical assistance project which would consist of feasibility studies for priority projects, followed by the coordination and monitoring of project activities by line ministries and strengthening Niger's external debt manage- ment system. PART III - THE FORESTRY SECTOR 16. Some 90 percent of Niger's natural forest cover consists of low grade savannah, thickets or bush. Only in the south are higher grade sudanian forests found. Classified forest reserves, parks and controlled forest areas  - 6 - cover about one million ha or 0.9 percent of the country's total area. Forest plantations cover some 20,000 ha. Numerous woodlots have been planted by villagers and local groups, but these are often in poor shape due to lack of maintenance. 17. Forestry officially accounts for four percent of GDP; however, its impact on the economy is much greater. Natural forest savannah and bush protect the soil from wind erosion, provide tree fodder and a dry weather grazing reserve for livestock, and a source of fruit, fibre, fuelwood and building poles to meet the basic needs of the rural population for heating, cooking and shelter. Fuelwood needs, which account for 90 percent of total wood consumption, are at present estimated at some 3.9 million cubic meters per annum--almost double the average annual increment of the exploitable natural forest cover--and are expected to rise to about 5.5 million cubic meters by the year 2000. Demand is currently being met by overcutting natural forest and bush, and in many areas, particularly around Niamey, the forest cover has been completely cut out. The resulting wind erosion of top soil and disturbance of the fragile ecological balance have led to development of desert conditions, declining soil fertility and degradation of large areas of potential agricultural land. 18. Hence, reforestation has become critically important. However, given the enormous imbalance between supply and demand, this would imply the establishment of extremely ambitious tree plantations and natural forest management programs that cannot be achieved under present conditions. Besides, the technical constraints to forestry development in Niger are formidable with only a small part of the country reaching the 800 mm rainfall level and with a lack of productive technical packages adapted to semi-arid conditions. Trials with rainfed tree plantations have had varied and sometimes disappointing results and although the possibility of producing wood under irrigation could play an important role, its economic viability remains to be established. It is evident, then, that a long-term strategy for forestry development in Niger will require complementary measures to reforestation. The country will increasingly have to look to potential wood substitution and to the adoption of more efficient wood usage systems, e.g. better designed woodburning stoves or charcoal. It will also have to seek means to encourage the effective participation of the rural population in forest development. The proposed project will address all these factors. 19. Prices. Despite significant real increases in fuelwood retail prices, permit prices have not reflected the value of wood to the economy or the real cost of increasing deforestation. Permit prices for wood sales (persons wanting to sell wood require a permit from the Forestry Department) have been fixed at a low level and increases in retail prices have represented mainly mark up by traders. A clear forestry policy to recuperate some of these profits has been lacking--given especially the lack of a clear knowledge of the wood market and cost components involved and no well defined means of surveillance by the Forestry Department, there is at present little basis to determine suitable adjustments in the stumpage fee. The project would there- fore support a two-year study of the wood market and appropriate stumpage prices. Assurances were obtained from Government that it would (i) fix  - 7 - acceptable stumpage prices for plantation wood before end-December 1983 and (ii) review with IDA by that same date the permit fee for natural forest wood with a view to adjusting these prices to reflect the value of wood to the economy and to encourage wood conservation (Section 4.04, draft Credit Agree- ment). 20. Forestry Institutiors. The Forestry Department is one of four technical departments of the Ministry of Rural Development (MDR). In spite of recent improvements in staffing, it is still understaffed and has difficulty in fulfilling its responsibilities given the magnitude of the forestry prob- lems. There is little planning and inventory control 1/ and management of field operations is generally weak. The situation is worsened by an inadequate allocation from the Government budget of funds, materials and operating supplies and the Department is unable to undertake reforestation or protection of the existing forest cover on any significant scale. The proposed project would address these constraints through the provision of technical assistance, equipment and vehicles, training and operational inputs. 21. Training. Forestry training is provided in Niger at the "Institut Pratique de Developpement Rural" (IPDR) for middle level staff (B and C). Senior forestry officers have up to now been trained abroad but in the future they will be trained at the "Ecole Superieure d'Agronomie" (ESA) in Niamey. There is no formal training for lower staff (Level D), who are supposed to learn on the job, though these are the actual executing agents. Forestry education curricula need to be improved by putting more emphasis on reforesta- tion and natural forest management. Junior level staff need training on forestry techniques, and field staff need refresher courses on reforestation and natural forest management. The proposed project would make appropriate provision for such training. 22. Research. Forestry research is part of the activities of the "Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger" (INRAN) which reports to the Ministry for Research. It has a major research program aimed at improving forestry packages but has recently had difficulties following its program since the departure of the chief researcher for medical reasons. The project, through provision of a new chief researcher co-financed by FAC, would reactivate the division. 23. Government Objectives and Strategy in the Sector. Since the drought (1972-74), increasing attention has been given to the role of forestry in economic development leading to a redefinition of forestry development pro- grams. These programs have three main objectives: (i) to protect the remain- ing natural forest cover from over-exploitation, encroachment, over-grazing and bush fires; (ii) to develop a sustained supply of fuelwood, building poles, fruit, fodder, gum and minor forest products through efficient manage- ment of the natural forest cover and establishment of tree plantations; and (iii) to promote better uses of wood and use of substitutes. The main means 1/ A USAID-financed forestry and land use planning project, recently started, is going to take an inventory of existing forests and would establish an inventory control within the Forestry Department.  -8- to achieve these objectives are to: build up forestry institutions through training, research, studies and provision of operating means; establish fast-growing tree plantations and improve management of natural forests; encourage the participation of the rural population in reafforestation; and support research into methods of improving forestry technical packages and efficient wood uses. 24. Woodstoves. To reduce firewood demand, Niger has been encouraging the introduction of improved woodstoves. This is being done through projects financed mainly by bilateral sources and non governmental organizations. Several improved woodstove projects are also in the preparation or planning stages and are expected to begin in the next few years. Thus, there is no lack of organizations or experts anxious to promote woodstoves in Niger, but the danger to avoid is the promotion of inappropriate and unproven stove models as well as stoves not acceptable to the population. The project would therefore not be involved in woodstove diffusion but would conduct a critical analysis of existing and forthcoming woodstove programs with a view to seeking out efficient woodstoves. 25. Rural Participation in Forestry Programs. Several rural forestry programs began in Niger in the early 1970s. Most of these were financed from external sources; they did not foresee any substantial participation of the rural population and hence did not have the support of villagers. They were conceived as village woodlots where in most cases the land was purchased from farmers and plantation works done by either project staff or by the forestry services with hired labor. Subsequent socio-economic studies and the efforts of the IDA-financed Pilot Forestry and Technical Assistance Project (Credit 800-NIR) in establishing rural nurseries indicate that farmers are interested in tree growing, but that family and individual woodlots offer more tangible incentives for participation than village woodlots and should be pursued through a vigorous forestry extension effort. This impression is reinforced by the experience under the Maradi Rural Development Project (Cr. 608-NIR) where the rural forestry program ran into a number of difficulties due to: (i) farmer reluctance to establish communal tree plantations; (ii) problems relating to land/labor competition between farming and tree planting; (iii) problems of protecting trees from browsing animals; and (iv) the low priority given to such activities both by the extension services and by farmers. The proposed project will address these issues (para. 28(a)). 26. Bank's Role in Forestry. The Bank group has financed forestry activities under three earlier credits: First, the Drought Relief Fund Project (Credit 441-NIR) provided financing for the improvement of gum arabic stands in the Manga area (Goure, Maine and Diffa). This was a successful operation that helped to stabilize and increase the incomes of some 5,000 people badly affected by drought. A total of 6,250 ha of natural gum arabic stands were protected and harvested (see PPAR of July 2, 1979). Second, the Maradi Rural Development Project (Cr. 608-NIR) provided financing for the establishment and maintenance of rural woodlots. The OED audit report has not yet been issued for this project. Third, the Pilot Forestry and Technical Assistance Project (Cr. 800-NIR), for which the proposed project provides follow-up, aimed at strengthening the Forestry Department and establishing on a pilot basis irrigated and rainfed tree plantations. The rainfed plantations  have remained in good shape and progress has in general followed expectations. There has, however, been difficulty in finding good soils on which to plant, and the proposed project would emphasize site selection. Problems have been encountered in the implementation of the irrigation component of the project. Investment costs per ha have been in line with appraisal estimates, but operating and recurrent costs appear much higher than anticipated. There have been delays in receiving equipment and hence in connecting the pumping system to the irrigation network; parts of the area have therefore not been effec- tively irrigated and will require replanting. The implementation of this component has shown the economic and technical difficulties associated with the full scale irrigation system and will require close monitoring for the next few years to assess what modifications are necessary in future such irrigation schemes. In the context of the proposed project therefore, only small irrigated plantation lots would be established along the boundaries and on non-agricultural soils of existing agricultural irrigation schemes. This will have the effect of reducing investment and operating costs and the trees would utilize water that would otherwise have been lost through drainage or percolation, while protecting the irrigated perimeters from sandstorms and excessive evapotranspiration. The completion report for this project will be issued shortly upon return of a mission presently in the field. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 27. The project is the second phase of the Pilot and Technical Assis- tance Forestry Project. To permit an uninterrupted transition between the first and second projects, a US$360,000 advance was extended through the Project Preparation Facility in January, 1982 to finance some forestry works and operating expenses. The project was appraised in May/June 1981. Negotiations for the proposed credit were held in Washington in February, 1982 with a Nigerien delegation led by the Minister of Plan. A Staff Appraisal Report entitled "Second Forestry Project" (No. 3632-NIR) is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. A supplementary project data sheet is at Annex III. Project Objectives and Description 28. The project would build on the momentum gained in the pilot pro- ject to improve supplies of fuelwood and building poles, tree fodder and other minor forest products. This would be done through an expanded rural forestry program, establishment of state-managed tree plantations for wood and gum-arabic production, natural forest management and protection of existing forests and plantations from forest fires. The project includes the following components: (a) Rural Tree Plantations. The project would assist the rural popula- tion in establishing mini-nurseries for rural tree plantations on a family/individual basis. To assist farmers in tree establishment and maintenance, the project would train and equip forestry field  - 10 - agents and provide farmers with seeds, plastic bags and nursery supplies. In addition to the normal support of the forestry dis- tricts given to such types of activities, a forestry counsellor at headquarters as well as three regional forestry controllers would supervise and support the agents. Advice would be given to farmers on: planting and maintenance procedures; the problems posed by deforestation; the interrelationships between agriculture, forestry and livestock; and the potential benefits of afforestation. All these services and inputs (except for plastic bags) would be pro- vided free of charge to the farmers. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that farmers would pay for the plastic bags at a price which is not higher than their cost to the borrower (Section 3.06, draft Credit Agreement). Given the importance of the rural forestry component in terms of future replicability, and some uncertainty about the immediate responsiveness of all farmers, the project would undertake a comprehensive field reconnaissance survey in the first year to select the sites of the first mini-nurseries. The project would also undertake an ongoing evaluation of farmers- responses to the family woodlot approach to be able to early on identify and alleviate constraints that may develop. To reserve enough flexibility, a mid-term review would also be undertaken and the size of the component would be increased if initial response warranted it. (b) Rainfed Tree Plantations. The project would continue to maintain 760 ha state-managed of rainfed tree plantations set up under Cr. 800-NIR and would establish an additional 1,500 ha through the project unit. The plantation sites would be carefully selected on the basis of preliminary soil surveys. It would also establish 750 ha of gum arabic plantations, likewise through the project unit, and would protect 6,000 ha of natural gum arabic stands against bushfires. (c) Irrigated Tree Plantations. The project would continue to maintain 240 ha of state-managed irrigated tree plantations established under Cr. 800-NIR. It would also assist farmers working on irrigated perimeters to establish 200 ha of tree plantations in areas un- suitable for crop cultivation. Sites would be selected in con- sultation with the national irrigation authority Office National des Amenagements Hydro-Agricoles (ONAHA) and agreement on the respective responsibilities of ONAHA and the Project would be a condition of disbursement of the component (Section 3.08 and Schedule 1, para. 3(b), draft Credit Agreement). It is intended that part of the operating costs for the irrigated perimeters would be recovered on an experimental basis from wood sales and assurances would be sought for the establishment of a mechanism to collect such fees by end-December 1983 (Section 4.03, draft Credit Agreement). (d) Training. The project would establish and operate a small training center in Naimey to provide courses in reforestation for field forestry staff, especially at lower levels. Annual curricula would be agreed on with IDA (Section 3.07, draft Credit Agreement).  - 11 - (e) Research. Given the need to develop technical packages suitable for arid and semi-arid zones, the project would provide support for the forestry research division of INRAN -- a chief researcher (to be financed by FAC), vehicles, equipment and operating means to ini- tiate a research program appropriate to project needs and the long-term requirements of the forestry section. Assurances were sought at negotiations that INRAN and the Project Unit w(:.ld enter into an agreement by December 31, 1982 on the research program. (Section 3.08(b), draft Credit Agreement). (f) Watershed Management/Erosion Control. Implementation of a pilot erosion control program in a selected watershed. (g) Management of Natural Forest. Management on a pilot basis of 6,000 ha of natural forests. (h) Bushfire Control. Implementation and management of a pilot bushfire control program. (i) Project Unit. The project unit, established under the pilot pro- ject, would be strengthened to undertake the expanded responsibili- ties involved in the second phase project. In addition to the project manager, the unit would now include five expatriate technical specialists and seven senior level Nigerien forestry officers. A researcher, a financial and administration specialist and a workshop manager would be added to the rural engineer and technical advisor. The project would also provide office accom- modation, vehicles, equipment and furniture and would include accounting and audit services, consultants for studies, office and other operating facilities and staff travel. (j) Planning and Monitoring. The project would provide support to the planning, monitoring and economic studies unit within the Project Unit for technical and economic monitoring of the activities of the first and the proposed project and for studies: (i) organization of wood marketing, (ii) optimal price structure for wood from plan- tations and natural forests, (iii) recurrent cost financing of for- estry projects, (iv) critical socio-economic and thermal efficiency analysis of existing woodstoves programs, (v) possible substitutes for fuelwood, and (vi) reconnaissance surveys on rural forestry and watershed management. The terms of reference for these studies would be agreed upon during negotiations. The unit would be headed by a Nigerien forester assisted by the internationally-recruited forestry technical adviser to the project manager. Project Costs and Financing 29. The cost of the project (net of identifiable taxes and duties, from which the project would be exempt) is estimated at US$16.8 million equivalent. Total costs include physical contingencies equal to 10 percent of estimated costs for civil works, equipment, inputs, seasonal labor and operating costs. The allowance for expected price increase over the five  - 12 - years of the project is about 37 prcent of base costs plus physical con- tingencies. This was obtained by compounding foreign price increases at 4.5 percent for second half of 1981, 8.5 percent for 1982, 7.5 percent for 1983-85 and 6 percent for 1986, expatriate staff costs at 10 percent for 1981 and 9 percent thereafter, and local price increases at 13 percent for 1981 and 10 percent/year for 1982-86. US$7.9 million (about 47 percent) are foreign exchange costs. The proposed IDA Credit of SDR 8.8 million (US$10.1 million) would finance 60 percent of total project costs, including US$4.9 million of foreign exchange costs and US$5.2 million of local costs. It would include financing of salaries for rural forestry field agents on a declining basis, as Government increases its contribution (see para. 35). The Government's participation of US$1.5 million would cover 9 percent of total project costs. CCCE/FAC participation of US$5.2 million would finance 31 percent of total costs. Project costs and proposed financing plan are summarized in the Credit and Project summary. As indicated in Part I, current economic circumstances--in particular the sharp and un- expected drop in uranium revenues--justify the financing of local costs. 30. Meeting all the conditions precedent to the effectiveness of the CCCE credit and to the FAC grant, and agreement with FAC for appointment of the Technical Advisor would be conditions of effectiveness (Section 6.01 of draft Credit Agreement). Project Execution 31. The Project Unit would be responsible for planning, implementing and monitoring all project activities, and providing support and guidance to the forestry districts involved in implementation. The Unit would prepare an annual work program and budget which would be submitted before the beginning of each financial year to IDA for comments (Section 3.05, draft Credit Agree- ment). A work program for the first year has already been agreed with IDA. The organization and management of the plantations within the irrigated agricultural perimeters and of research would be done by the Unit in coopera- tion with ONAHA and INRAN respectively. The planning, monitoring and economic studies unit in the Project Unit would monitor and evaluate project perfor- mance. This would include a critical cost-benefit analysis of the irrigated and rain-fed tree plantation components of the first project, an ongoing evaluation of farmers' responses to the rural forestry component and recom- mendations for improving implementation of the component, if constraints develop. The unit would also coordinate closely with the forestry researchers at INRAN to define a technical monitoring program for all project activities. The unit would provide IDA with a detailed evaluation report on project progress each six months. This would form part of the half yearly report to be submitted by the Project Unit to IDA. The unit would prepare a project completion report within six months of the completion of the project (Section 3.09(d), draft Credit Agreement). Technical Assistance 32. To implement the project, five expatriate experts would be employed at an estimated cost of US$8,500 per man-month. A total of 23 man-months of  - 13 - consultant services at an average cost of US$12,000 per man-month would be financed by the project to help the unit undertake various studies and audit. The estimated costs include salaries, allowances and overhead. Working Fund 33. To ensure that plantation works are carried out immediately when needed, initial working funds of US$400,000 to prefinance operating expendi- tures would be provided as follows: IDA (US$300,000) representing its share of estimated quarterly contribution to operating expenditures, and Government (US$37,000) representing its share of estimated quarterly contribution to operating expenditures. CCCE has indicated a willingness also to contribute to the working funds once its participation is confirmed. The IDA funds would be deposited in a Special Account established for that purpose; the Government contribution would be deposited in a Project Account. The establishment of the accounts as well as Government's payment of its initial deposit in the Project Account would be a condition of credit effectiveness (Section 6.01(a), draft Credit Agreement). Assurances were sought at negotiations that the Project Account would be replenished at least quarterly on the basis of supporting documentation for expenditures incurred and cash forecasts made by project management in order to have sufficient funds to meet project expendi- tures for the following quarter. IDA would replenish the Special Account upon receipt of evidence of disbursements from the Special Account for allow- able expenses. Should any disbursements be made from the Special Account that are not acceptable to IDA, the Government would deposit the corresponding amount into the Special Account. Assurance to this effect were obtained at negotiations (Section 2.02(f), draft Credit Agreement). Procurement 34. Field forestry works (a total of US$5.4 million of which US$3.8 million to be financed by IDA) are customarily executed by Forestry Depart- ments (force account), represent their major operational function, and would be done by the project unit. From experience, because of their location and small size, contracts for civil works, houses,. offices and workshops (a total of US$1.0 million of which US$0.7 million to be financed by IDA), would not be attractive to international contractors and would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally. Procure- ment of machinery, vehicles and equipment would be grouped in packages of over US$100,000 where possible and would be awarded on the basis of inter- national competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with IDA guidelines. Contracts for domestically manufactured goods which amount to less than US$100,000 but for more than US$25,000 would be procured on the basis of competitive bidding procedures advertised locally and contracts for less than US$25,000 would be procured by direct shopping on the basis of at least three quotations. Disbursement 35. The Credit of US$10.1 million would be disbursed over five years as follows:  - 14 - (a) civil works: 70 percent of total expenditures (US$0.7 million); (b) field forestry works including inputs, operating costs, seasonal and permanent labor: 70 percent of total expenditures (US$3.0 million); (c) machinery and equipment (excluding those financed by CCCE--dumper trucks and tractors): 100 percent of costs (US$1.9 million); (d) expatriates and consulting services (excluding those paid by FAC): 100 percent of costs (US$1.0 million); (e) project operating costs: 63 percent of total expenditures (US$1.4 million); (f) rural forestry field agents salaries: 100 percent of costs during first two years, 55 percent the third year, 25 percent the fourth year, 0.0 percent the fifth year (US$.3 million); and (g) Special Account: (US$0.4 million). In addition, the PPF advance of US$0.4 million would be refunded upon effec- tiveness of the Credit and US$1.0 million would remain unallocated. Disburse- ments would be fully documented except for categories (b) and (e) abov3. These involve small purchases and disbursements would be against statements of expenditures, which wculd be audited. Accounts and Audits 36. The accounts of the first project were satisfactorily kept with the help of ONAHA's accountant and by a junior accountant employed by the project. The size of the second project, however, requires the services of a full time accountant who would be appointed under the project. All Project accounts would be audited annually by independent auditors acceptable to IDA. Audited financial statements and reports would be submitted to IDA within six months of the end of each financial year (Section 4.02, draft Credit Agreement). Financial and Economic Analysis 37. At full development, total annual wood production under the project would be 39,000 m3 (excluding an annual wood production of about 11,000 m from the plantations of the first project), less than 9 percent of current urban fuelwood demand. No marketing problems are therefore expected for marketable project output (including production from the first project). The demand for fuelwood in the rural areas remains high and all the wood produced in the rural forestry component is expected to be absorbed by the sector. Given the shortages of building poles, poles from the project should find a ready market.  - 15 - 38. The project would generate sufficient Government funds to finance continuing project activities after the 5 year implementation period. After being negative during the first two years, the cumulative cash flow after debt service for both IDA and CCCE credits (including debt service for the pilot project) would turn positive from year 3. The cash flow is calculated by including the costs of maintaining and receipts from the state-managed rainfed and irrigated tree plantations of the first project. 39. Economic rates of return have been (,tlculated only f.,r the directly productive components (44 percent of project costs), where benefits can be quantified with a reasonable degree of certainty, with berefits courited as fuelwood, poles and gum arabic. The economic rates of retura are as follows (share of project costs in parentheses): tree plantations in irrigated perimeters - 35 percent (6 percent); rainfed tree plantations 10.1 percent (17 percent); rural tree plantations - 13.9 percent (12 percent); gum arabic plantations - 10.9 percent (9 percent). The weighted average economic rate of return has been estimated at 13.9 percent. The economic analysis did not quantify other direct benefits that would accrue from the project. These include the beneficial effects that trees, planted as windbreaks, can have on output and the fact that planting trees for fuelwood and fodder avoids cutting already existing ones. Over the five-year implementation period the project is also expected to generate about 1,500 man-years of direct employment for unskilled labor. Benefits and Risks 40. The project would continue the institution building process started under the first project. This would enable the Forestry Department to plan, implement and monitor its work more effectively. It would help the Government map out an effective pricing and permit policy for firewood and seek feasible alternatives to present firewood use to limit future over-exploitation of forestry resources. The project would improve the knowledge about the respon- siveness of rural populations to large scale afforestation schemes, and expose them to tree planting as an important part of their agro-sylvicultural system. The project would also provide valuable knowledge about the effectiveness and costs and benefits of irrigated tree plantations in Niger in particular and in the Sahel in general, given the lack of suitable technical packages for reforestation in Sahelian countries. The project would help test new forestry production and management techniques through the applied research and natural forest management components and therefore help improve forestry technical packages available to the country. 41. Given the limited knowledge about reforestation in Sahelian countries, the harsh climate, and the newness of large scale tree plantations in Niger, the project necessarily involves risk. However, project design and assump- tions on yields have been made so as to minimize this. Although the Niger small farmer environment seems to be quite receptive to reforestation, there is a risk that the rural population would be unwilling to participate in the operation. Therefore, particular attention will be paid to incentives and sociological aspects in this component. Other components face only minor risks in terms of reduced benefits or increased costs. Yield expectations are  - 16 - based on best estimates, though given the newness of forestry operations in the country, the lowest known yields under similar project conditions have been used and cost estimates are based on actual costs of past planting. The project also includes an ongoing evaluation to identify and correct at an early stage constraints that may develop. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 42. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Niger and the Association and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 43. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. Conditions of effectiveness would be that: (i) the Technical Advisor financed by FAC has been employed; (ii) all conditions precedent to the effectiveness of the CCCE Credit and the FAC grant have been met; and (iii) a Special Account and Project Account have been opened and the Govern- ment's initial deposit of US$74,000 equivalent representing its estimated quarterly contribution to project costs has been made to the Project Account. 44. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 45. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Development Credit. A. W. Clausen President Attachments March 17, 1982  - 17 - ANNEX I Page 1 Of 5 TABLE 3A NIGER - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET NIGER REFERENCE GROUPS (WFICHTED AVERAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND Sq EM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- TOTAL 1261.0 MOST RECENT LoW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 124.1 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 110.0 140.0 270.0 238.3 794.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOCRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 5.5 25.4 48.4 70.5 707.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THIOUSANDS) 2875.8 4008.0 5163.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 5.8 8.4 12.0 17.5 27.7 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 9.7 STATIQNARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 29.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2130 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. EM. 2.3 3.2 4.1 27.7 55.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 22.6 32.0 40.4 73:7 130.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 44.8 46.3 46.8 44.8 46.0 15-64 YRS. 52.6 51.1 50.7 52.4 51.2 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.3 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.8 URBAN 4.1 7.0 6.8 6.5 5.1 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 51.8 50.7 51.5 46.9 46.9 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 26.5 23.7 21.7 19.3 15.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS. ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 112.0 96.0 89.0 89.5 89.9 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 90.0 89.0 91.0 90.2 92.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 59.0 57.0 64.0 52.7 52.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 18.0 19.0 27.0 17.8 16.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 41.0 34.7 31.3 27.3 20.2 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 37.2 40.6 43.0 45.8 50.8 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 2D0.0 .. ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 20.0 27.0 23.9 27.4 URBAN .. 37.0 38.0 55.0 74.3 RURAL .. 19.0 26.0 18.5 12.6 ACCESS TO EXCEETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 1.0 7.0 26.2 URBAN .. 10.0 36.0 63.5 RURAL .. .. 3.0 20.3 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 82165.3 58087.0 42719.3 31911.8 13844.1 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 8451.0/c 7019.3 6267.5 3674.9 2898.6 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL RED TOTAL 1954.0 2220.5 1391.4 1238.8 1028.4 URBAN .. 358.6 407.2 272.8 423.0 RURAL .. 4230.4 1958.2 1745.2 3543.2 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED 10.4/d 34.7/e HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. .. . RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. URBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. ..  - 18 - ANNEX 1 Page 2 of 5 TABLE 3A NIGER - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET NIGER REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AV5RAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE )- HOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOOTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 5.0 14.0 23.0 56.4 73.7 MALE 7.0 18.0 29.0 70.7 96.8 FEMALE 3.0 9.0 17.0 50.1 79.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 0.3 1.0 3.0 10.0 16.2 MALE 0.5 2.0 4.0 13.6 25.3 FEMALE 0.1 1.0 2.0 6.6 14.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (S OF SECONDARY) 4.0 3.0 2.0 8.0 5.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 43.0/c 39.0 41.0 46.5 36.2 SECONDARY 17.0 20.0 23.0 25.5 23.6 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 1.4 .. 8.0 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER ThOUSAND POPULATION 0.3 1.4 2.1 2.9 32.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.3 36.2 .. 32.8 69.0 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND PUPULATION .. .. 0.1 1.9 3.0 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.8 20.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. 0.2 .. 1.2 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 945.9 1276.1 1610.1 FEMALE (PERCENT) 9.0 9.7 10.0 34.1 36.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 95.2 93.0 91.2 80.0 56.6 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 1.4 2.0 2.9 8.6 17.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 32.9 31.8 31.2 41.7 37.2 MALE 60.2 58.1 56.7 54.3 47.1 FEMALE 5.9 6.1 6.2 29.2 27.5 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 23.0 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 42.0 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 6.0 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 18.0 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY. INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 133.0 136.0 381.2 RURAL .. .. 63.0 84.5 156.2 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOHE LEVEL (USD PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 133.0 99.1 334.3 RURAL .. .. 53.0 61.2 137.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. .. 39.7 RURAL .. .. 35.0 68.8 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. /c 1962; /d 1964; /e 1966. May, 1981  -19 - ANNE 1 Pa-e o f 5 OtFiblITIOgS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Ots Although ic dsar dret 10 ro souce geeal-ugdte- nbretlead reliable, it should also be -te that they ey not ha laer naIonall copral beeeeo helc ofsened Ia defititlon and concpt need by differen.t c-nties In eletn the du.U.Thdaere n- chelese, uefulod _aribe reso _ anhts,inict treds, an huai -ic etin ujor diff-rece betee outrn The eeec gops_so Ci) the esnco -rygop of the subject country cad(2 a oar ru Okssna ihravrgVrcete h nae re coctocoltual efititss).In the ref--to Stup date the vrge r popalation weighted arithtto -ee ten each iedicet- sa heselys eajorit of th counties ita groa ha dat for t%hattnort . Since the co-rsg f oetrise amon the indicaor. ep.. nh avalhliy of t and e to unfore cauiongnathennrcied i reltin I vrgnI foetnteo to a-oh-r meanan-rgre are only ...efn1 ttceai n the valu ef on idIneto acclT usn tiI-- he -ontry and referneg- ne LAIfE hREA (choo..und eqik..) 'pvaonrrHsial hd - total. nrber endintl Pplto ntl Tota - T-tu1 -af-r urea c c Inglad as atd lad enter. aro,sdrr i ivde by rhler r-eperi- nter at heaitl hds Aatuiol-Ttimte of egriruliua ae ee apor-rily or perenatly -1tailuh in rblic and privat genra an.d aperia1iud heaittal sad r- forcops p -trs,su t eod kitchen garden o t lie fallow; 19i data. huhilitati-n cener. Inpcsat. satebiteheam paestly atAffad by at leat oePhyalta.- raE-bhil .ent p-eidtng Pn1i"rpaly ra imp Pta CAPIT Col il nPits est IIates at --ret -akb- prices, cal- dial casaent incladd. tRe .. ptea Ihoweer lmisde b.it Iulatadbyse c -vrno ehd an Wrld Honk Atlue (1977-79 heels) ; 1960, en ioirntr e pbeastystfe hoA physL.Ita (hen hy a 17,ed170 dte, medical.. aei-tao nure,Pidwt.er rhlch aff- im-Putise sat dagia end P-id.A a limIted saef eadinal f-ciltag*- Per aneti'- EWEtb.c iCoSenorT'Io Pit CAPIlA - Annua c-naptiot of ccece.l soary (coal tana rerpvae amen hepituls tealu.e vme pnartpa/gainellb nae end lignita. parrlu, natra P.s an hydr--. nuclea andgethrml s- and reral hesPttl.14 le_a en nae hepitala -ad aeirl -d t-ftty ctronlly) cc kilog-e of coal eqn.. t Par capita; 1960, 1970, and 1979 canen,. PIpeleltedhpries inclodd naly aMer ntal. dare. Amnlg a Lental ledS - lna en of adeleinne to endtsoerg ftru hospitals gidad by the ncar, nf bade. yOrVL,TIon MDot 'CtAL, oyniut- TrialP1 natonKid-Year (thousands) -Aof Jo1y 1; 1960, 1970, ond 1979 wuitJ U~irhen Pouaio (rerc.rt of toa)-titl of -brion to . dIa ppuletiet; A heIaINIheld .inmatn Of a~ grey efIndivideals nb soe llle gag ditfeent dfInitons f orb_a onsy affect coa prabiIity of data aa their welt seal. A hoarde - orldge -y or may ear h genled h eeonoc.u.tctne; 09th, 1970, an 1919 data, the honehoid foI ttitIa parIse Pvrlation, yrjetloe Aveaatg frroeerrn ne.aia drri-ecg poenlatlrn I year 2000 -Corrart popuetlot prolecione ate hosd on 1950 herat reen ar ee in allahn sdrnlcoLed ae tl-sl rocal population by INe and sea und thei. nrgittn fertiiity rae.delig, prtvl..elig .eld aa.. ae stenese 1_ng li;1 n Itacaly ahItchinresig th cunry-pe cp...ntn ccsit PetrcLO(Wrot ofIeeie Pa - ee.ahs.a ne lee,adfeele life enypoct-y tbca !btinn t7. yas Th. para- Con 1tea wlingt wi mlnrntyi tig aiters eN pns eaters for fertility rate .1c have three levlsesat decline In of total, urban, andrradsltgreptvly fertility Iacc.nding tc Locoe leve and Past fomily pAnaing perfnrst.. tach no-icy is than aeindoeo teenn oetnitos of eatDUC tttATIO Stationer norulatlon - n tatoaypoplato thorn Ie an gr-vh sInc Pmr arol-teaa.sl MtaeAesttl,sl ef the kinkh rats ieequa totreth rate, and .als the uge tr-onr on-seoleet of all ages at the pri-ny leve en Psre.-um adespn nira constant. TIs Isaninved only after fgrtility ratn deolin to primay noo-uepepelenioms; nrly hoindee edidese Nd 4-lI nhe trolaman 1-vr of vot et ,rpndeaton vans, rde each genartin er enajee far differe leagth at P11eey ean.:te ofsoen cerlaca. islt.I enrtly The sttonr ppti tn alas- a nenerhasII. h anreen adenaienerua - yU II ea.d be par-n sI Iscd or tie basis of the projectd cIatrtrc f theFnnltln sine s pnplis ar helen or shav the efffLal enn "P. in the yaar 2000,. ad the rate of dacinn o-f fnrttlityra.ts-tr.plana- S...""ue ethel - total mal sad hle - Cqatad asb~ 55....eM.a. ma- mI... educatio ruieat lest fea yer of arrea pniey_ iea Yea sitm-or Pcrulotlon Ia t-ohad - The yea. hy. oi. oypplttnpela geneval vocatinal,Io teache ntlging nenetnitss toe pWi a-ne h.e -er -eid. enllyof 12 to 17Year of ega; -o-sposacsnnrm grgenraly Per en. h. - hid-yrsr populatict Per square kiltts (100 heotatas) of On..tattesl enrele_t (eartet nf anedre _Oitise_lim uti total er_o; 1960;, 1~9710 arId1979 data. L-tlde iehta,Odueri.l, en nthen prepa ktbn we edp Pr e. i arcu_ua lad-Creputed e above for sgiulalln early orn dyutae-t of seredaryiitnaa torulatot AteOtracrue (rerent) -Childre (0-14 year), -erin-gs. (15- prim-r an -sneduy levels divided by Ifr a -bt raen he th 64 yer),ed -atrd(6 yrsAnd ove) As parcet.agg of tdd-y-u PaIN- rrepet ees lein 1967, 1970~.-nd 1979 data. Aet ltrn raet. pet - Literat edema (WAb. ase AS ghom Populatnot Ir_nh hat Cr-cen) - total - dcAl1 ecteh rates ct.tot1id- AssI PAr- ecag of irnnl adam papa,itIo ass ii year Meevr y-s popu.i.c.on f no 1950-h0. 1960-70. sad1970-y9. Prstnitr-th atn Cpnr-etl - urban- Anel growh rate of -nben too- CWmSWWTI 1-i.ns tot 1950-60, 1960-70, etd 1970-79. Pasene Cars ( fotnheueed noenltta)-Pemgrtasnigswe Crude nirtchat (tea thoused) --1a live bitrt Per rhoasn..d of sid-yn- orsurelaetneight peron; eniades b1e.hsre M poplain; 9k.,17, 197 197 dta mlitr vahbIri C-da Death hats (tar thonsnd)9-Anneal deaths oar thousands If eld-,eur Radio ge-iv-re(... th Isd enrlAt IN) - All no,nee of earirw far rsdh p Iplatrn 196.0. 1970, and 1979 data. brosdtan~,ts nlgearl probl1n par thnneaed of gpeValata; al.dss her n..-I capr-ductive petiod if sh. anpariac- Preen.a t gn-spncttir fa- etens. tE nfnt; dat tnt rae-t yer sey one heaqaalMr dilty rates ualy tIre-yea avagn endin in 1960, 1970,. sd 1979. eatcere hliehe Iirseelg. Ps-nv Plnoi - Acpoa cul(thousads) dana ni-her cf n..ara... SfTVcnr (net t--need -anlAtiem - TVreavs ten b-rAsda t of birth-control device ender tasPings of neional fatly pI.ian g po.gr-. genralprtlic per thensed pegelutno; enledee wIlead. STVetir PsiyPntn-ar (I ra " f ane omn - P..eneg o. f earind n inetis -ad in penr eham rIitar f TV est -a . sff-tr women f chil-hesrtg gee(115-64 y_er) fouebirth-cotrLd-vi... to Wmven Crala..ltLom Iea tinseesed hnewl.ti- - ~Se. the ninreg v-i almrIed oca In ede .g group. raaIosf "daily ge`sra int-re ..appa dfttad IaWapeadttel pahlloation devte preily ternndeggaee s.It in. asiw FOOD AcD NtfrRITIOt to he "daily" .if in appears st least fear tles A i.don of Pon Prductio ne aia196-1i ldAu of p-r capita anua Cmi-.eni A..1tisdmea eat Ca-its ear tu - Reed a the .i- at productionof all foo coesodit "S. roucio eldes esad sad feed and trban sol-d during nh year, imIolang adalaitm tn drive-in eie is r clenarYear boeta_ Coand itl,e ove tIIay goods (e.g. enatsed ehiln name.. ir ae nlod`d). Aggregec prod-ction f eah cn...ttr is base In 14161 FORM nat-ioa averge Producer pricneaigtst; 1961-65, 1970, and 1979 data. Tate.1 inhee farce (thoeees rntecal soatt P -vne amaledge Far caite surir ufcolorie (reteat ofranuirE_ns Coepotef fine aree foroen and al edht en dladag -nniva tdeAt, ent. enetg eqoialan of nc fod suplies valible i ototry Pet iotln coverin Popalsea at all ages. brfinntta in verten r-otear Par day. a-ilable eupplins coprise d-istt Pro.`duccrn tport lees net c.nr-bin; 1960, 197 and 1979 dato. ,,Pore, en ca, e insok.nt ppl-e nld nia ed gd, Pi tent(-Pi ea oc aprtg ef tnto LI&ne tart. q ..ine usd In f nod Proce...iag, anld loea inderhto.hqair- Meinalt.r..eoar Lee tarts. in fereie. tn....trP, bettg sad sente arn estnetedby PAO base. e ph,slirga inda for n.reI ecti- flahIng Ae percentage of ctal lahr tarts; 1940, 1970 ad 1i79 data, vity go taih conideritgectccoilteepertutr body nihs-g nusr ete - Lhor forc in siin. oetrL"n. ftrr and ed-n b.itthulo o~f5p popultion, and allowIng 10 percen fr assIt ned -eirnc, ne end gas .a pettg MPf .tota lahr fa..ts; 1960, hnand leve; 1911-5 197, and! 197) date. 19y04sa 19179 daa oa sp ly offon perday.Net enpIYy of food Is defined as shove. L.- atvy geapo ntdaeralmAle n aelhrtesa qot1 ats tot all coutries etabliahad by USDtA provide for sines poroentage oftt,sl and fe-lt poprlatif of all a-m respeatively allowerce ci 60 grana rf tota~~~~~~lprtean par day end 0 e-s of auteal and 1960 1970. and 1979 dAte. These en heAd en ILD'a Pertiolatite ratw pulseprucOn, f whih 10eras etoud be erte P, I---at Ths:sod rfecinng-nnsrntr f nbhppoeten M lame tea -rd. A arde arJlwatt ththos ot75 gra-n If nta. prooi and 23 scan of fs- satntA.e are tru etinaLsvrea aimul protin s nI vtaefor the -td,P-oPt...d by FAO in the Third tinat batenIdeny tnlo - latin ef popeitiom ean 1i and 65 ed ee dotd Pond Survey;'1961-65, 197 trd 17 aa ttettlihrfr Per" tt orteo uat fo anima end raie Protei auppy tf food de- tiedfom tmas ndpuss n tL. o day; i9tl-h5, 1970 nod 1t77 data. Irie odnhtru Child (,nat 1-41 a -calt lanee thoneand) - Aoona dentha Par rhoun in Pnrc1aTseart Pint nts(akt nhad id aevdh ih agegrop -4 years, in biide an this agn gio; for mat de...lcpi.tgio- Percent.rNhest 00 nrn, P.art 2f parost. end peast 40 pain tiedaca derived from life tables; 1960, 1970 and 1979 dMr. of honsh.1ds. HEnALTH Faten TAlenT GYk5P Life toretisno at limbh (tears -Avng ti-hat of yu- of lif.tnrining The ft11ienfn stiatas ar very appr-amte seaean of pevery level, enbrh ih., 1970 end 1979 date. end shold be nter=rtsd with or=edere la tntlen infant tnrtalitp hate (on t=ood - A-nol deaths of inftent .ndtc e yar ftiegd Abeluta PvtvInteI Ceni 0$ see _teea - net ad renl of age perfrhango lIve births. Absoite pavoty Inca m-l Is rcan maca leve belen hftok A edema Atone tn aeWaeI necn fPInoaioo ins ht ndrtl-L- onrcoal deqeat disc pleaesnilnnfn serna0 e bar of_psople (total, urba.. and 1rura) othtreasonablecsavatafodbe enrcPpI itoa tea otaeenn vutandbat ototmtain teniesd Relatlve Pnverty I-rwLvl(t a-aie re ema -he sc ta that ftros prolsoctd borehoa, spriga, end senitary sell)at hrresvepetyicwlelson-bdofvrgeartls PerenagsIf the it treptitiv Ppoploti-ne. EnurhaAtna pabli pere-1 mcd- of nba -etry. Orhen a- ha derived fre the reas foetain or stadpost loctetd no man then lit eater from A hoc.. mat be leve th adjaiset Int highe cotf inig n ire eae rotaidad as.. o d tIhnreaonbl aces of tblhanboe. iv rua areas tetimate Ponlitl-n Selen obA=ata tnr geLvltett .e tesonbl aces nud mpy he te ouewfeorsebas f hehoseol ed rurl er-nt of populetie (orhe sd Intl lear aslt Atrese to ic-to~i Oepyani (oretofrrMaIc - iotal, -vbeoadmea' tc-t or people (ttl,uban, and ttal served by ancet dispoen as the co.iacic and disposl iho nihu retat f hrstscrt let itetallattoasth. t f P~~i. T t Conhai Anlyt en. d froj-rtlw hamarte-t Potulcion ar Pbsicln - Pouiecin diided by n-bar of p-eticlag physi- hap 19f 1 dan- q.ualfId from a madirc. chol2 a1t _uivrity level. P-otult -ot ...nuring P erect -Ptuaoidividad by Ioehe of practicing saleeedsEa1eegoduatsncs,practical nures and ..sIIc-ct norses  - 20 - ANNEX 1 Pag 4 of 5 COUNTRY DATA - NIGER GNP PER CAPITA IN 1979: US$250 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1979 ** ACTUAL RATE OF GROWTH (X, CONSTANT 1972 PRICES) US$ Million $ 1972 - 79 GNP at Market Prices 1,450 100.0 4.2 Gross Domestic Investment 424 29.2 Gross National Savings 220 15.2 Current Account Balance 227 15.7 Exports of Goods, NFS 423 29.2 7.6 Imports of Goods, NFS 578 29.8 9.8 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1979 Value Added (Factor Costs) US$ million % Agriculture 495 32.4 Mining 1/ 297 19.4 Industry 269 17.6 Services 2/ 468 30.6 TOTAL 1,529 100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANCE General Government (CFAF billion) % of GDP 1974/75 1977/78 1975 1978 Current Revenues 22.4 56.0 13.4 18.2 of which uranium revenue ( 2.5) (24.6) ( 1.5) ( 8.0) Current Expenditures 17.5 38.7 10.5 12.5 Current Balance 4.9 17.3 2.9 5.6 Capital Expenditure 1.9 17.6 1.1 5.7 External Assistance Overall Balance +3.0 -0.3 1.8 -0.1 MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 (CFAF billion at end of year) Money and Quasi Money 12.1 12.9 15.5 20.3 22.3 29.2 37.6 54.2 66.9 Bank credit to Public Sector -2.3 -3.5 -3.4 -7.2 -11.5 -12.3 -16.4 -11.9 -16.4 Bank credit to Private Sector 9.7 10.7 12.5 21.0 28.5 28.6 32.7 54.2 74.5 PERCENTAGES OR INDEX NUMBERS General Price Index (1970=100) 104.2 114.4 127.8 132.1 144.1 178.1 219.2 241.6 259.2 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index . 9.8 11.7 3.4 9.1 23.6 23.0 10.2 7.3 Bank credit to Public Sector Bank credit to Private Sector . 10.3 16.8 68.0 35.7 0.4 14.3 65.7 37.5 ** Staff estimates. Not available. Not applicable. 1/ Mostly uranium mining 2/ Including Government and duties and taxes on imports. April 2, 1981  - 21 - ANNEX I Page 5 of S COUNTRY DATA - NIGER TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS (in millions of current US$) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1975 1979 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS -/: (Annual Average: 1975-79) Imports of Goods, NFS 167.8 571.0 US$ Million _ Imports of Goods, NFS 226.5 697.9 U$iln Resource Gap (deficit = -) -58.7 -126.9 Livestock 38.7 15.1 Uranium 177.1 69.2 Interest Payments (net) -10.7 -18.7 Groundnuts .6 .2 Workers' Remittances -18.7 -31.3 All other 39.5 15.5 Other Factor Payments (net) 3.0 . TOTAL 255.9 100.0 Net Transfers 77.1 87.6 Balance on Current Accounts 8.0 -89.3 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1979 Direct Foreign Investment (net) 15.8 48.7 Public Debt, including guaranteed Net MLT Borrowings 17.0 38.3 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Total coustanding and Disbursements (18.8) (.) disbursed 593.2 Repayment ( 1.8) (.) I/ DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1979 Other items 1 -19.8 _ Change in Reserves (end year) 5.0 -2.3 Public Debt, including guaranteed Foreign Reserves (end year) 51.4 85.3 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Fuel and Related Materials Total outstanding and disbursed 3.4% 2 of imports 12.8 11.0 IBRD/IDA LENDING, December 31, 1979 RATE OF EXCHANGE Outstanding and disbursed 48.1 1971: US$1.00 = CFAF 277.03 Undisbursed 53.4 1972: US$1.00 = CFAF 252.21 Outstanding including undisbursed 101.5 1973: US$1.00 = CFAF 222.70 1974: US$1.00 = CFAF 240.50 1975: US$1.00 = CFAF 214.32 1976: US$1.00 = CFAF 245.00 1977: US$1.00 = CFAF 245.00 1978: US$1.00 = CFAF 220.00 1979: US$1.00 = CFAF 212.72 1/ Including errors and commissions. 2/ Recorded exports only. * staff estimates. April 2 1981 not applicable. not available.  - 22 - ANNEX II Page 1 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN NIGER A. STATEMENT OF IDA CREDITS (as at January 31, 1982) Borrower: Republic of Niger US$ million Credit Amount (less cancellation) 1/ Number Year Purpose IDA Undisbursed Eight credits fully disbursed 35.9 441 1973 Drought Relief 2.0 0.2 612 1976 Niger Third Highway 15.6 1.8 800 1978 Forestry Project 4.5 0.2 809 1978 Employment Creation Project 5.0 1.1 851 1978 Irrigation 15.0 5.0 885 1979 Livestock 12.0 9.7 886 1979 Feeder Roads 10.0 5.3 967 1979 Dosso Agricultural Development 20.0 19.9 1026 1980 Second Maradi Rural Development 16.7 15.3 Total 136.7 58.5 of which has been repaid 0.5 Total now outstanding and held by IDA 136.2 Total undisbursed 58.5 1151 1981 Education 2/ 17.3 3/ 17.3 3/ 1/ Prior to exchange adjustment. 2/ The Credit was signed June 19, 1981, and is not yet effective. 3/ Million SDRs.  - 23 - ANNEX II Page 2 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION AS OF MARCH 1, 1982 1/ Credit 612 - Third Highway Project; US$15.6 Million; Credit of March 5, 1976; Effectiveness Date: January 31, 1977; Closing Date: December 30, 1981 extended to June 30, 1983 This project includes: (a) a four-year program of periodic mainten- ance, including procurement of equipment and training of specialized public work staff, (b) construction and improvement of the Zinder-Nigerian border road (113 km) and of the Maradi-Nigerian border road (40 km) and (c) con- sulting services for supervision of road construction and a survey of the domestic construction industry. Construction of the Maradi-Nigerian border road was completed ahead of schedule and the Zinder-Nigerian border road is expected to be completed shortly. A study of the domestic construction industry is currently underway, as are studies to prepare a proposed fourth project. Credit 800 - Forestry Project; US$4.5 million; Credit of June 7, 1978; Effectiveness Date: February 7, 1979; Closing Date: December 30, 1981 extended to June 30, 1982 This project will assist Government in its efforts to establish 400 ha of pilot irrigated plantations and 700 ha of pilot rainfed tree plantations; improve the rural forestry activities of the Forestry Department; finance a training program in extension services; provide assistance to research and a workshop maintenance unit. The Project Management Unit created within the Forestry Department to assist with coordinating and monitoring project activi- ties is fully operational and project implementation is almost completed. Credit 809 - Industrial and Artisan Sector Employment Creation Project; US$5.0 million; Credit of June 7, 1978; Effectiveness Date: February 7, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 This project aims at assisting Government in the promotion of more labor intensive employment creation in Niger's industrial and artisan sectors while strengthening the sector's institutional infrastructure, by providing a line of credit, training and technical assistance to BDRN, including the development of a bank management training program of the Ecole Nationale d'Administration, financial and technical assistance for creation of OPEN, the new agency created under the project to provide technical assistance and training for local enterpreneurs, and by assisting the Artisans Center to improve the productivity and employment of artisans affiliated with the Center. Project implementation is progressing satisfactorily. 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report problems which are being encountered, and the action taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the understanding that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution.  -24 - ANNEX II Page 3 Credit 851 - Irrigation Project; US$15.0 Million; Credit of February 15, 1979; Effectiveness Date: October 12, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 The project aims to assist the Government in expanding cereal and vegetable production along the Niger River through development of a 1,550 ha polder; providing agricultural development services on neighbouring irrigation schemes (1,215 ha) and dryland farming plots (9,000 ha); and in creating the necessary institutional framework for the implementation of its irrigation development program through establishment of a national agency (ONAHA) which would integrate and strengthen the activities of construction and management of the irrigation schemes. The project will also finance the preparation of a feasibility study for a nearby polder, as well as the services of a financial coordinator to be attached to the Ministry of Rural Development to assist in accounting and financial management of the various IDA-financed agricultural projects in Niger. Due to initial delays in credit signing and in the award of contracts for equipment and engineering services, construction of the irrigation works started in March 1980. The construction of the first 230 ha was completed in August 1981 and they are presently under irrigation. The completion of an additional 900 ha is foreseen by July. Completion of project beyond that will depend on a survey of recently detected salinity problems. Credit 885 - Livestock Project; US$12.0 Million; Credit of April 27, 1979; Effectiveness Date: October 12, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 A combination of health and productivity services is being made available to herd owners in the pastoral and cropping zones. An innovative approach is being launched by establishing Associations of Pastoralists, legally recognized cooperative entities based on existing social groups. Members of these Associations will have access to a greater range of health services, new forms of credit for backgrounding and breeding, improvements to existing wells and extension of watering points and advice on range management. The project is also providing assistance to the Livestock Department to improve competence in delivery of productivity services. Project implementa- tion proceeds satisfactorily, particularly in drug distribution for which a self-financing network of 190 paraveterinary works has been set up. Credit 886 - Feeder Road Project; US$10 Million; Credit of April 27, 1979; Effectiveness Date: December 10, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 The project will improve 1,000 km of feeder roads which support Government's agricultural program and create an appropriate structure for the execution of comprehensive feeder road programs. The project will finance highway construction equipment and spare parts; labor, materials and supplies for the improvement program; offices for and technical assistance to the newly created Feeder Road Technical Section to aid in implementing and monitoring the improvement program and in training technicians, mechanics, equipment operators and training officers. Equipment procurement is complete. Follow- ing an intervention by the President of Niger construction standards have been raised, and the construction target lowered from 1,000 kms to about 800 kms.  - 25 - ANNEX II Page 4 Credit 967 - Dosso Agricultural Development Project; US$20.0 Million; Credit of June 12, 1980; Effectiveness Date: February 25, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 The project comprises a five-year program intended to increase farm incomes and improve the welfare and standard of living of the rural population of Dosso Province and to build up an extension service through: the introduction of improved farming practices for rainfed cereals, cowpeas and groundnuts; the improvement of vaccination coverage, delivery of drugs and feed supplements and animal husbandry practices for beef cattle and work oxen; the construction of small-scale irrigation schemes for 200 ha of bottomlands; the introduction of a Training and Visit extension system; the strengthening of the farm input and implement supply system; and applied research. Training, extension, input supply and credit services would be made accessible to about 80,000 farm families, of whom 25,000 are expected to adopt the recommended improved practices. In spite of one year delay in start up period input distribution targets have been met both in agriculture and livestock. Organizational conflicts between project management and executing agencies may still frustrate these results for the next campaign. Credit 1026 - Second Maradi Rural Development Project; US$16.7 Million; Credit of June 6, 1980; Effectiveness Date: February 26, 1981; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 The project follows up on the First Maradi Project. It includes the expansion of improved agricultural practices in rainfed farming areas; training of extension staff, young farmers and blacksmiths; agricultural credit; development of irrigation potential in Maradi; applied agricultural research; seed multiplication; functional literacy and health proposals. Some cost overruns are anticipated on the land development component as a result of omissions and underestimations. Credit 1151 - Education Project; SDR 17.3 Million; Credit of June 19, 1981; Effectiveness Date: June 30, 1982; Closing Date: December 31, 1987 The project comprises a five-year program to improve educational planning and the preparation of education projects, planning for civil service upgrading and the training of rural development workers. It includes (a) tech- nical assistance and fellowships to assist in educational planning and project preparation; (b) technical assistance to the Ministry of Civil Service and Labor to establish a training directorate, review the needs for upgrading and formulate pilot upgrading programs for the public administration; (c) the final phase of expansion and upgrading of an agricultural technician training institute at Kolo; (d) the development of a new animal production training school at Kolo; and (e) technical assistance and operating costs for project management.  - 26 - ANNEX III NIGER SECOND FORESTRY PROJECT Supplementary Data Sheet Section I: Timetable of Key Events (a) Project Identification Missions: November/December 1980 (b) Appraisal Mission: May/June 1981 (c) Date of Completion of Negotiations: February 18, 1982 (d) Planned Date of Effectiveness: June 30, 1982 Section II: Special Bank Implementation Action None Section III: Special Conditions A. The following actions are conditions of effectiveness: (i) The Technical Advisor financed by FAC has been employed (para. 28(i)); (ii) All conditions precedent to the effectiveness of the CCCE Credit and the FAC grant have been met (para. 30); and (iii) A Special Account and Project Account have been opened and the Government's initial deposit representing its estimated quarterly contribution to operating expenditure has been made to the Project Account (para. 33). B. Other conditions: (i) the Government will fix an acceptable permit price for wood from plantations and will review in consultation with IDA, the permit price for natural forest wood with a view to increasing these prices to reflect the value of wood products to the economy and to encourage wood conservation, all before December 1983 (para. 19). (ii) working agreements will be signed between the Project Unit and both ONAHA and INRAN defining the responsibilities of each in the opera- tion of plantations within the agricultural perimeters and of research (para. 28(c) and (e)).  ________________________________________ lORD 15903~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IRI 19Q F- $\0L0440, ASEA 4~ h' i- 2r,4 ETME NJ -> $L L I B Y A N I r G E R*'5e SECOND FORESTRY PROJECT K. Eo F5na Reserves /X0 Forest Re-eres/ VEGETATION ZONES ACCORDING TO JC4t, 1979 / \ (|. 000010on 0.40 *e/ : ( , | DSET DUNES 414 lOOF VSEATION -/ li T ., NDTHR SAELTOSCTrON ZOE0A lC~ ' 040 104 lOs .41 reollI = 4 - LIi = 0SF SAoPlOtO4 S 04} 4= LI 7<==>\ S.donon ... s440400 r ~ . .