Upper Volta - Volta Noire Agriculture Development Project

Document of - The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 3812-WV STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT UPPER VOLTA VOLTA NOIRE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT June 28, 1982 Western Africa Projects Department Agriculture 4 Division | This document bas a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may net otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS SDR 1 US$1.12 = CFAF 336 US$1.00 = SDR0.89 = CFAF 300 CFAF 1,000 US$3.33 = SDR 2.96 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metrie system FISCAL YEARS Government: January 1 - December 31 ORD: April 1 - March 31 IDA: July 1 - June 30 Project Year 1: July 1, 1982 - March 31, 1983 Project Year 2-5: April 1 - March 31 ABBREVIATIONS AAVV Volta Valleys Development Authority CCCE Central Agency for Economic Cooperation (France) CERCI Irrigated Crops Study and Research Center CNCA National Agricultural Credit Bank FAC Fund for Aid and Cooperation (France) ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IRAT Tropical Agriculture and Foodcrops Research Institute IRCT Cotton and Textiles Research Institute MRD Ministry of Rural Development OFNACER National Cereals Agency ORD Regional Development Organization PY Project Year SAFGRAD Semi-Arid Food Grain Research Development Program SOFITEX Voltaic Textile Fibre Company (Parastatal)  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UPPER VOLTA VOLTA NOIRE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. 1. The Rural Sector ........................................... 1 Agricultural Sector . . ................................. l Sector Strategy and Bank Group Lending ................ .... 2 Principal Agricultural Institutions ....................... 4 Il. The Project Area .......................................... 6 Location and General Characteristics ...................... 6 Farming Systens . ............. . . 6 Previous Projects in the Area .... . 8 III. The Project ................ 10 General.. .. 10 Summary Description .....................10 Detailed Features ..........................1.. . . . il Cost Estimates . .... . ......... 14 Procurement ......19 Disbursements ...... 20 Accounts, Audits, and Reports .21 IV. Project Implementation and Executing Agencies ............. 21 Farmer Participation . . .. 22 Staffing and Training ....... ..... .... 22 Agriculture and Livestock . ...... 23 Supplies and Credit . ...... 25 Monitoring and Studies ..... .. ........ 26 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission consisting of Messrs. Notley and Serejski (IDA); Delacroix and Teysseyre (CCCE); Laurent (FAC), Ms Johnson (IFAD); and Mr. Floirat (Consultant); which visited Upper Volta in October 1981. | This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of | j their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. j  TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Page No. V. Production Specifications ................................. 28 Crop Recommendations .3..1...... .. ... .... ................ . 38 Livestock .................................... 33 VI. Markets, Prices, and Financial Analysis ................... 33 Markets and Prices ........ .. ..... ...... ......... .... 33 Farm Incomes .................................... 35 Financial Implications for Government ..... ................ 36 VII. Benefits and Justification ................................ 37 Project Benefits ....... .. .. .... .. ... .. .... ... .. .... s... 37 Economic Rate of Return .... ........ ... ...... ...... ... . 38 Risks and Sensitivity ..... **. .................... ....... 39 VIII. Agreements to be Reached and Recommendations .............. 40 Tables in the Text 1. Project costs 2. Financing Plan for Project Costs 3. Financing Plan for Project-Associated Costs 4. Cropping Patterns 5. Assumed Yield Increases under the Project Annexes 1. Project costs 2. Estimated IDA disbursements 3. Organization chart (WB 23515) 4. Production 5. Crop returns 6. Farm budgets 7. Government cash flow 8. Economic Analysis 9. List of working papers Map IBRD 15914: Project Area  UPPER VOLTA VOLTA NOIRE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT I. THE RURAL SECTOR 1.01 Upper Volta has an area of 274,000 km2 and a population of 5.9 mil- lion (1981) growing at an annual rate of 1.6%, with urban population growth estimated at 4%. While average population density is 20/km2, it rises to 80/km2 in parts of the central plateau, where over half of the population lives. The urban population represents some 8%; the main towns are Ouagadou- gou, the capital (275,000), and Bobo-Dioulasso (135,000). Per capita GNP was US$180 in 1979, which puts Upper Volta among the 25 poorest countries of the world. The proposed project would be located in the agriculturally favorable southwest, in an area with a rural population density of 18/km2, and per head incomes lower than the national average. The Agricultural Sector 1.02 The agricultural sector is the dominant sector of the economy, providing a livelihood for 80-90% of the population and producing almost 40% of GDP and nearly all exports, with cotton and livestock leading the list. Practically all agriculture is rainfed. Crop farming, under shifting cul- tivation, produces 25-30% of GDP and 60% of recorded exports. Livestock contributes 10% to GDP and 30% to exports. About 8% of the land, or 2.2 million ha, is cultivated each year. The basic foodcrops, sorghum, millet and maize, account for about 90% of the cultivated area and 80% of production value. Cotton, groundnuts, sesame, rice, and vegetables account for most of the remaining cultivated area and production value. 1.03 Although the country is relatively flat, there are pronounced regional differences in climate and soils. The climate changes gradually from sahelian in the north, with average rainfall of 600 mm, to savannah in the south, with average rainfall of 1,200 mm. The low and erratic rainfall in the north results in unreliable harvests and greater reliance on livestock for survival, and consequently low population densities. There is also a striking contrast between the central plateau and the western and southwestern regions. On the plateau, crop farming is at a subsistence level because of population pressure, over-exploited soils and unreliable rainfall, whereas in the west and southwest soil and rainfall conditions are more favorable, population density is lower, and production more market-oriented. The sahelian droughts of the early 1970s emphasized these differences: in the north and center, they virtually eliminated cotton production and reduced grain production by as much as 35%; in the west and southwest, they affected production much less severely. 1.04 Cotton is the most important cash crop and a major export. Produc- tion began in the early 1950s and had reached some 36,000 tons in 1969/70. During the following drought years, production stagnated at around 30,000 tons annually, but has since increased, with favorable weather in 1979 con- tributing to a record output of 78,000 tons. Over 80% of this cotton was produced in the western regions, and 40% was produced in the project area.  -2- 1.05 The livestock subsector, while of great importance to the economy, faces serious constraints, mainly due to overgrazing, insufficient watering facilities, the growing competition of foodcrops and the tsetse challenge in the south. The forestry subsector, which provides firewood, building poles, fodder, and a range of food and medicinal products, is threatened by the reduction of the vegetative cover due to agricultural encroachment, overgrazing and bushfires, shifting cultivation, and uncontrolled settlement of migrants. The foodcrop subsector also faces considerable problems. Upper Volta has become a substantial importer of grain; food-aid imports amounted to 65,000 tons in 1979, about 7% of consumption. Self-sufficiency in grain production is achievable in years of adequate rainfall although marketing problems may inhibit the transfer of grain from surplus to deficit areas. But, given the almost total reliance on rainfed cultivation, trying to reach this goal in poor seasons as well poses difficult technical problems. Sector Strategy and Bank Group Lending 1.06 Government strategy for the rural sector gives priority to (a) developing rainfed agriculture by promoting improved farm practices and integrating cropping and livestock activities; (b) stepping up migration from the densely populated and relatively infertile north central plateau to areas in the west and southwest which have lower population densities and better agricultural potential; (c) expanding swampland and irrigated agriculture, thus helping to protect the nation against the impact of major drought; and (d) ensuring national self-sufficiency in foodcrops by these means. 1.07 Fertilizers are becoming an important factor in maintaining food security. Increasing at 30% per year, use on cereals has reached 9,000 tons and would need to rise by some 3,000 tons/year over the next five years to assist meeting food requirements. Whereas the subsidy on fertilizers used on cotton has been readily financed as a deduction from the producer price, the increasing usage on cereals, and increasing level of subsidies (64% in 1981/82) in the light of rising world prices, has led to a situation where Government has been unable to meet the costs, through its budget. However, it has been able to effect ad hoc arrangements with donors, and intends to allocate funds from the Stabilization Fund. During negotiations, Govern- ment confirmed that the financing of the subsidies up to the 1981/82 season was about to be finalized, and that the requirements for the 1982/83 season would be met by external and internal sources. Government also indicated at negotiations that it had, in accordance with obligations under the Second Bougouriba Agricultural Development project (Credit 1097-UV), increased the price of NPK fertilizer ex-central warehouse from CFAF 40/kg to CFAF 55/kg, thereby reducing the subsidy to 57%. Government also confirmed its strong interest in pursuing discussions with the Association and CCCE, concerning a proposed Fertilizer and Food Policy credit, which would seek to assure the financing of fertilizer supplies, whilst necessary price adjustments were being made in an orderly and closely monitored fashion. The objective would be a progressive reduction over five years of the subsidies to a level supportable without external finance.  - 3 - 1.08 Bank Group Lending for agriculture has been in line with this strategy and with a 1977 Presidential Decree which established rural develop- ment as a priority sector. Five agricultural development projects have been successfully completed. There are also five ongoing IDA-assisted agricultural projects; all of which are located in southwestern Upper Volta: the West Volta Agricultural Development Project (Credit 706-UV for US$3.6 million, Credit 706-5-UV for Can.$3.0 million and Special Action Credit 49-UV for US$3.0 million equivalent), the Livestock Development Project (Credit 557-UV for US$6.0 million); the Forestry Project (Credit 982-UV for US$14.5 million); the Niena Dionkele Rice Development Project (Credit 1013-UV for US$6.5 mil- lion); and the Second Bougouriba Agricultural Development Project (Credit 1079-UV for US$16 million equivalent). They are being implemented satisfac- torily, although the swamp drainage Niena Dionkele project has run into serious technical problems of rice varieties, and the Livestock project had difficulties with its group ranch component which necessitated a redesign. The first two named projects are discussed at para. 2.12. The proposed Volta Noire and Hauts-Bassins projects, whose appraisal reports are being processed concurrently, are intended to build upon the West Volta project, which covers both the Volta Noire and Hauts-Bassins areas. A Koudougou pilot project aimed at testing improved farming approaches for the central plateau is also planned for consideration by the Executive Directors shortly, and a research and a further area development project are in the early stage of identification. 1.09 The five completed agricultural development projects represent the first phase of Bank Group involvement in the rural sector. The Cotton Project (Credit 225-UV) was successfully completed in 1977 with a rate of return of 37%, and was the predecessor to the West Volta Agricultural Develop- ment Project. The Rural Develoment Fund (RDF) Project (Credit 317-UV) was started in 1972 and the Project Performance Audit Report (PPAR) confirmed that the project had been successful in implementing a variety of scattered sub- projects including wells, village storage facilities, bottomland development, anti-erosion measures, small irrigation schemes and feeder roads. The rate of return was re-estimated to be 19% compared with an appraisal estimate of 16%. The Drought Relief Fund Project (Credit 422-UV, approved in 1973), using the RDF organization, successfully developed clean water supplies for 105 villages and built grain storage facilities and feeder roads. The PPAR noted that the project's components had already been introduced under the RDF project and that its main contribution was to put the RDF organization to a test by giving it additional responsibilites, which it carried out satisfac- torily. No rate of return was calculated for this project. The second RDF project (Credit 640-UV, approved in 1976) was successfully completed in December 1981. It continued the development of bottomlands, wells, and anti-erosion works in the central plateau region of the north. A third RDF project was negotiated in December 1981. The Bougouriba Agricultural Develop- ment Project (Credit 496-UV for US$8.0 million and Special Action Credit 50-UV for US$1.5 million equivalent) after a slow start was successfully completed in 1980 with an estimated rate of return of 15% compared to the appraisal estimate of 68%, now seen to be overly optimistic. It included infrastruc- ture of 650 km of feeder roads, 119 village wells, 33 sector and subsector warehouses, vaccination yards, and headquarters building.  -4 - Principal Agricultural Institutions 1.10 The Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) has as its executive head a Secretary-General who has under him national agricultural and livestock support services including adaptive research. Parastatal marketing organi- zations come under the responsibility of MRD, together with eleven semi- autonomous Regional Development Organizations (ORDs), which cover the entire country except for the lands adjacent to the three Volta rivers, which are largely depopulated mainly because of riverblindness and are administered by the Volta Valleys Development Authority (AAVV). Except in the case of those ORDs in areas with externally-financed projects, the ORDs lack adequate finances; however the heavy cost of maintaining an ORD is most readily justi- fied in areas where economical technological packages exist readily usable by farmers on a wide scale - that is, presently, only in the southwest. The Ministry also suffers from inadequate budgetary allocations, and from a shortage of trained personnel, in particular economists, and also accountants, giving rise to difficulties in preparation of projects and policy analyses, and in financial control during project execution. Under the proposed proj- ect, technical assistance at field level is included for monitoring and finance (para 3.13); in addition, the Association is discussing with Govern- ment the possible provision of support, training, and technical assistance (economists and accountants) at central Ministry level. 1.11 An active program of agricultural research is undertaken by externally-supported specialist institutions for cotton (IRCT), for irrigated crops (CERCI), for sorghum and millet (ICRISAT), and these and other fooderops (SAFGRAD and IRAT). The recent creation of the Voltaic Institute for Agri- cultural and Livestock Research (IVRAZ) to coordinate research programs is intended to give new focus to the need for research to ultimately result in recommendations valid at farmer level; the Association is discussing with Government possible support to IVRAZ. 1.12 Agricultural credit is being pursued by the National Agricultural Credit Bank (CNCA) established on August 21, 1980, with a subscribed capital (50% paid-up) of CFAF 1,300 million (US$6.2 million) held 54% by Government or official Voltaic institutions, and 46% by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), the French Caisse Centrale (CCCE), and the West African Development Bank. IDA has financed technical assistance for CNCA, which has, in line with IDA recommendations, concentrated upon setting policy norms for agricultural credit, training, and control of funds, and has successfully completed its initial program in these areas. Day-to-day credit operations continue to be the responsibility of the ORDs, particularly for selection, disbursement and credit recovery. The Banque Internationale des Voltas, the Banque Internationale de Commerce, Industrie, et Agriculture, and others provide on a consortium basis short-term credit for the purchase of annual inputs, and for the cotton marketing campaign. 1.13 Marketing: Cereals are marketed mainly by private traders who purchase grains in producing areas and sell them in the main consumption points. The system works fairly efficiently, with most farmers being able to sell any excess production without difficulty. Government sees a need for a  - 5 - floor pricing policy to ensure farmers receive a minimum return, and price ceilings to keep consumers prices to affordable levels. Government sets official consumer and producer prices, but does not enforce them as such; rather it attempts to influence market prices through the National Cereals Agency (OFNACER). OFNACER is however handicapped by a rigid policy of uniform pricing throughout the country, insufficient financial and transportation resources, and inadequacies in management. Nevertheless, it was able last season, to offer to purchase cereals at the official price throughout the country, and although it did not meet its purchase quotas, it may have induced traders to offer higher prices than they would have otherwise. On the other hand, Government through OFNACER, has sold food aid in urban markets at official consumer prices, and this has caused producer prices paid by traders (which are usually above the official producer prices) to be lower than they would have otherwise been. The Bank has advised Government that it considers that the role of private traders should be maintained, as at present, and that OFNACER's role should be limited to marketing emergency stocks, selling food aid to drought-stricken areas, and improving market information. 1.14 Cotton marketing, ginning and export is undertaken by a well- functioning organization, the Voltaic Textile Fibre Company (SOFITEX), 63% owned by Government, and 37% owned by the French Textile Fibre Development Company (CFDT) who provide technical support and receive a commission of 1.5% on all exports. The medium-term outlook for SOFITEX is currently good, as recent currency changes have raised the price received in CFAF for cotton, and the real dollar price for cotton is expected to increase in coming years. Most of the world price increases would need to be passed through to producer prices (paras 6.03 and 6.09). The current processing capacity of SOFITEX is 95,000 tons of seed cotton, and should suffice for the next five years. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that Government would review ginning capacity in 1984 (para. 8.01). SOFITEX's significance transcends the cotton sector since it imports fertilizers and insecticides for sale at subsidized prices, not only for cotton (fertilizers and insecticides) but for cereals (fertilizers) as well. Its performance in this role has assured prompt delivery of inputs to farmers and thus contributed to the success of projects in the southwest. The system is under strain however, especially for areas not producing cotton, because of delays by Government in reimbursing SOFITEX for the subsidy element for fertilizers used on cereals (see para. 1.07). 1.15 Seed Production. The responsibility for technical oversight of seed production nominally rests with the Directorate of Agricultural Services (DSA) within the MRD, whose services are suppos'ed to assess the quantities required by the ORDs, organize the production at multiplication centers, distribute and certify seed. DSA has not been able to fully discharge these responsibilities. IRAT, CERCI, and IRHO are responsible for producing foundation seed of cereals and groundnuts, and the ITTA grain legume team at Kamboinse is advising on the multiplication of cowpeas. Seed is multiplied by four of the ORDs on their owll farms, and elsewhere by seed farmers. Greater use of improved seeds has been hampered for a number of reasons, including pricing policy, extension  - 6 - attention, adequate liaison with research (for example recommendations on locality choice are not known) and lack of attention to farmers' preferences, for example palatability. Research results demonstrate the advantage of new over local varieties in terms of yield, season length and drought resistance, given proper husbandry practices and proper selection of locality and sites, but not otherwise. Under the project, particular attention will be paid to seed production (para. 4.14), and the factors affecting uptake. Il. THE PROJECT AREA Location and General Characteristics 2.01 The project area is identical wth the assigned territory of the Volta Noire ORD, in the west of Upper Volta, covering an area of 33,100 km2 and a rural population of 589,000. The headquarters of the ORD is located at Dedougou, and there are six agricultural sectors. The West Volta Agricultural Development Project (Credits 706-UV, 706-5-UV, and Special Action Credit 49-UV), which also covered the Hauts-Bassins ORD, provided for the development of the area with programs for cotton and fooderop development; staff training; provision of a new ginnery; small-scale irrigation schemes; agricultural credit; central and regional support activities; village grain stores and a womens component. The results of this project are discussed in paragraphs 2.08 to 2.13 below. Details of roading, water supply, education and health conditions (all of which are poor) and of land features are described in the preparation report. Farming Systems 2.02 There are two climatic zones in the project area, with rather stark differences. The northern area, covering the sectors of Nouna, Kougny and Tougan, is sudano-sahelian, with rainfall of about 530-740 mm per year. It is suitable for sorghum and millet cultivation, and also groundnuts. The southern area, covering the sectors of Dedougou, Solenzo and Boromo, is more fertile with rainfall around 660-960 mm per year. Cereals including maize, legumes, yams and cassava are grown, and this area is in the most important cotton producing zone in Upper Volta. Only a very small amount of cotton and maize can be grown in the northern area. Rainfall distribution throughout the project area during the cropping season is unreliable, with, on average, one year in three being unfavorable, a factor which is taken into account in production forecasts. 2.03 There are 60,000 farmers in the project area, of whom some 24,000 have already been reached under the first project, and of whom 14,500 have adopted improved practices. Altogether some 268,000 ha are cultivated with about 80% under cereals, and in 1981 some 26,000 ha was under cotton, mostly in the south. Farmers who have migrated to the south of the project area from the central plateau send cereals to relatives who stay behind; following a poor season on the central plateau, such farmers decrease their cotton produc- tion in favor of cereals, in order to help reconstitute the granaries of their relatives.  -7- 2.04 Cultivation is generally manual, but there are increasing numbers of farmers using oxen and equipment. There are now some 9,700 equipped farms in the ORD, with 60% in the south. In the south, maize is an increasingly important cereal. Cotton remains the dominant cash crop in the south, and covers almost 25% of the area cultivated. Cotton has stimulated the use of chemical fertilizers on cereals, both directly and indirectly through rotation. Cotton farmers generally get higher cereal yields, and their cereals produc- tion appears to have risen following the development of cotton. 2.05 In the north, cotton cannot be grown, and the cash crop has been groundnuts, although this crop has declined due to marketing difficulties and only covers some 7% of the area cultivated. Cash crop development is also hindered by yields for cereals which are on average about 40% below those of the south. Consequently, farmers must allocate larger areas to their subsis- tence crops to assure their food supply. Nearly 90% of the area cultivated is therefore under cereals and only in exceptional rainfall years is any surplus produced. Eighteen percent of farms are equipped with animal traction, compared to 22% in the south. 2.06 In analyzing the farming structure of the area, a distinction is drawn between farms, which represent the total situation of a large family having fields and a common granary which are additional to the fields and granaries of the farmers who are members of the large family. The concept of farm, which embraces both the collective and individual fields, has been used in assessing areas under cultivation, especially cereals area. The concept of farmers has been used in analyzing the demands upon the extension service which must aim to get its message through to those who take decisions on farming practices. Farm and family size are fairly similar in both the north and south. For lack of more precise statistics, the numbers of both farms and farmers is taken to increase by 10% in the next five years, resulting in the following figures: North South Total Farms 1981 26,000 21,000 47,000 1986 28,500 23,000 51,500 Farmers 1981 33,000 27,000 60,000 1986 36,000 30,000 66,000 Persons per farm 12.9 13.1 13 Area per farm (ha) 5.48 6.05 5.73 Area per person (ha) 0.43 0.46 0.44 Farms with animal traction 4,900 4,800 9,700 Farmers reached under ongoing project 11,500 12,500 24,000  -8- 2.07 Livestock: Cattle and other livestock numbers are not accurately known, estimates of cattle in the area for example range between 140,000 and 320,000. Most of these animals are in itinerant herds managed by Peul herdsmen, and consisting mainly of animals owned outright by them, but also of an important number of animals owned by farmers and entrusted to the herdsmen for management. Health of the itinerant herd has been materially assisted by annual vaccination compaigns funded under the Livestock Development Project (Credit 557-UV), but the Livestock Service has found it more difficult to respond to specific calls for treatment of sick draft oxen. Previous Projects in the Area 2.08 The West Volta Agricultural Development Project, which covered the Volta Noire and the Hauts-Bassins ORDs, has been successful in extending the work of the preceding Cotton Project to stimulate more general agricultural development in the area. The completion report on the Cotton Project (Credit 225-UV, approved in 1970) noted that substantial improvements in farming practices had occurred, but that the extension message should be broadened to cover foodcrops as well. The West Volta project did this, whilst maintaining the impetus of cotton production. It has established a well-trained and enthusiastic extension service, and has laid the foundations for further development. The impact on agricultural production has been significant and has provided a satisfactory rate of return (see para 2.11 below). 2.09 Most of the physical targets of the project have been met by end-1981, with the construction of 75 village grain stores, a training center at Bobo-Dioulasso, and a new 20,000 tons ginnery at Dedougou. Components not directly under the control of the two ORDs were less successful, however, with only about 10% of the targets of the irrigation component met, and slow progress in stimulating women's development; both reflecting organizational problems. The component for support of the Ministry of Rural Development, and the component to carry out studies and surveys, followed by pilot projects to help new settlers, were not implemented, as detailed terms of reference were not agreed between Government and the financing source concerned. 2.10 The rainfed agriculture program has followed a multi-crop approach directed at both cotton and foodcrops. Monitoring and evaluation have been adequate for cotton, but weaker for foodcrops. For cotton, reliable estimates are available on production and supplies of inputs. After reaching 35,000 tons in 1979/80, when weather conditions were very favorable, production in 1981/82 in the Volta Noire area fell to an estimated 24,000 tons, compared to the before-project situation of 19,800 tons. 1981/82 results were low because farmers switched to cereals production (para 2.03). It is difficult to forecast to what extent this phenomenon may occur in the future; the analyses of the ongoing and proposed projects are based upon 1981/82 production of 24,000 tons representing the stable end situation for the ongoing project, or an increment of 4,200 tons over the without-project situation. Cumula- tive (non-adjusted) incremental production in the Volta Noire area over the five years of the project to date is 30,000 tons compared to 29,000 tons at appraisal. Yields have risen from 700 kg/ha to 900 kg/ha, largely through increased application of fertilizer and insecticides, and early sowing.  - 9 - For cereals, fairly reliable estimates exist for the application of inputs, and these, together with an allowance for improvements in cultural techniques, have been used to estimate the project induced production. Cereal yields are estimated to have increased by 12% over the five years, and Volta Noire production is estimated to have risen in 1981 by 17,000 tons/year, 5,000 tons in the north and 12,000 tons in the south, compared to the appraisal est