Djibouti - Highway Maintenance Project

F E COFY Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-3403-=DI REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$6G4 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF DJIBOUTI FOR A HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE PROJECT November 9, 1982 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Djibouti Franc (DF) Exchange Rate Calendar 1980 October 1982 US$1 = DF177.72 DF177.72 DF 1,000 = US$5.63 US$5.63 DF 1,000,000 = US$5,627 US$5,627 The rate of DF 175=$1 has been used for appraisal. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter (m) - 3.28 feet 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles 1 square kilometer (km2) = 0.386 sq. miles 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres 1 metric ton (ton) 2,204 pounds ABBREVIATIONS EDF - European Development Fund FAC - Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (Fund for Aid & Cooperation of France) MI - Ministry of the Interior MPW - Ministry of Public Works, Urban Affairs and Housing PtWD - Public Works Department MTTT - Ministry of Trade, Transport and Tourism FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DJIBOUTI HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Djibouti Beneficiary: Ministry of Public Works, Urban Affairs & Housing Amount: SDR 5.7 million equivalent to US$6.4 million Terms: Standard IDA terms Project Description: (a) Objectives: The objectives of the project are to assist the Government in strengthening its road administration to carry out road improvement and maintenance effectively and economically, thereby (i) providing easier and more reliable communications between Djibouti City and the interior; and (ii) reducing transport costs. It would also provide training to local staff and lay the foundation for planning and preparing future road projects. (b) Major Components: (i) A three-year road improvement and maintenance program including resurfacing of about 25 km of paved roads, routine maintenance on the 300 km of paved roads and streets, and spot improvements and maintenance with hand tools on about 800 km of priority earth roads and tracks; (ii) improvement of equipment maintenance facilities, iLncluding construction of workshops in Djibouti City and service stations in Tadjourah and Dikhil; (iii) technical assistance comprising consulting services to strengthen the road administration, to train personnel and to prepare preinvestment studies to identify the improvement needs and priorities of the road network, and fellowships for the training of road maintenance personnel. (c) Benefits: Facilitating transport within the country for Tgoods and passengers and a reduction in transport costs; increased accessibility to health and social services by those people living in areas now only accessible by track; better road conditions resulting in lower maintenance costs; institution building in road administration and maintenance. (d) Risks: Usual risks associated with a first project in a sector. The provision of local financing could cause problems, because of Government reluctance to use the funds available, while implementation delays could occur in This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii- procurement, recruitment of technical assistance, or construction of the workshops, which would reduce benefits. The project's technical assistance component has been designed to minimize these risks, and frequent supervision by IDA staff will be required initially. Estimated Project Costs: $ thousands equivalent Local Foreign Total Road Maintenance equipment 108 973 1,081 Road improvement and maintenance operating costs 652 470 1,122 Workshops, contruction & equipment 508 2,514 3,022 Technical assistance 81 725 806 Fellowships 8 72 80 Studies 35 310 345 Base Cost 1,392 5,064 6,456 Physical Contingencies 80 511 591 Price Contingencies 128 823 951 Total Project Cost 1/ 1,600 6,398 7,998 1/ Government has exempted project expenditure from taxes. Financing Plan: $ thousands equivalent Local Foreign Total Percent of total IDA -- 6,400 6,400 80 Government 1,600 - 1,600 20 Total 1,600 6,400 8,000 100 Estimated Disbursements: $ thousands equivalent IDA FY 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Annual 200 2,300 2,400 1,300 200 Cumulative 200 2,500 4,900 6,200 6,400 Staff Appraisal Report: 3867-DI, dated September 24, 1982 Economic Rate of Return 58 percent for the resurfacing component and morethan 100 percent for the maintenance components. No returns were calculated for other components. Map: Highway Maintenance Project, Djibouti, No. 16238.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC QF DJIBOUTI FOR A HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendaton on a proposed development credit to the Republic of Djibouti for SDR 5.7 million (US$6.4 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance a highway maintenance project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report entitled "Djibouti Economic Memorandum" (Report No. 3016-DJI) was distributed to the Executive Directors on November 3, 1980. An updated summary of the conclusions is set out below. Country data sheets are provided in Annex I. 3. The Republic of Djibouti, which has a land area of 22,000 sq. km. and is located at the mouth of the Red Sea, became independent in June 1977. The country is characterized by a rugged topography similar to the adjoining desert areas of Ethiopia and Somalia. An estimated two-thirds of its indigenous population of about 352,000 people (1980) live in the city of Djibouti, the capital. There are a few small towns, but otherwise most Djiboutians in rural areas are semi-nomadic pastoralists. The country's economy is service oriented and consists of three economic sub-units: the city of Djibouti with its port/railway terminal and airport, and Government administration; a French military base, the country's largest single source of economic and commercial activity; and the sparsely populated hinterland whose accessibility is difficult and which has little contact with the first two sub-units. 4. The country's limited known natural resources have prevented the development of any sizeable primary activity. It is estimated that no more than 50 hectares of the total land area of Djibouti are cultivated. Cultivation consists mostly of fruit and vegetables grown on a few irrigated plots near towns. Practically all food is imported. Nomadic herders raise cattle, sheep and camels in the hinterland. There is no permanent fresh water course above ground and Djibouti is dependent on subterranean aquifers. There is some artisanal fishing, but there is no local tradition of fishing or sea-going. Manufacturing industries are few and the small-scale industry sub-sector is not extensive. 5. In addition to the indigenous population of around 352,000, about 30,000 foreigners live in Djibouti, including large communities of Yemeni and French origin. In addition to these temporary or permanent migrants, Djibouti has over 50,000 refugees, from neighboring countries. Population is believed to be growing very rapidly, at a natural rate of about 3 percent per annum. Life  -2 expectancy is 45 and, although probably higher than in neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia, is slightly belowq the average for middle-income African countriesl/ Malnutrition is severe and the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is high (believed to affect about 15 percent of the population). Health services, provlded essentially with the support of aid agencies, are mostly curative. There is an acute need to focus on preventive medicine. 6. Djibouti depends heavily on expatriates for administrative and technical skills. This situation is aggravated by the inadequacy of the education system. The sustained inflow of migrants makes it hard to keep up with potential demand, and provision of education to nomads is a serious challenge. Education is in French, with Arabic as the second language taught in schools. The adult literacy rate, below 20 percent, is low for a country that is geared to a service economy with two-thirds of its population urban. The primary school enrollment rate was about 36 percent in the mid-1970s (10,000 pupils in 1976-77 and 15,000 in 1980-81). In 1980-81, 950 pupils were enrolled in the country's only vocationial school (Lyc6e d'Enseignement Professionnel) and 3,700 pupils attended public secondary schools (3,200 nationals and 500 expatriates). A primary teacher college has recently been opened, but Djibouti continues to rely on expatriate teachers. In 1980-81, the country had 375 primary school teachers (221 nationals, 87 French, and 67 Tunisian) and 240 secondary school teachers (27 nationals, 195 French, 17 Tunisian and one Egyptian). Djibouti has no university, but 150 Djiboutians had fellowships to study abroad in 1980-81. 7. Per capita income levels are difficult to estimate, because of inadequate statistics and of wfde differences in income between expatriates and DJiboutians. A preliminary figure of $480 per annum (1980) has been established by the Bank, but other estimates exist. For example, a 1980 French mission estimated that 8 percent of the national population earns about $4,000 yearly, 45 percent about $450, and 47 percent about $85. The $420 level is higher than that of neighboring countries ($140 for Ethiopia), but it is not evident that the standard of living in Djibouti is substantially different, especially in the hinterland where sources of income are limited and poverty extreme. Even though the minimum wage in the formal sector is high for the region ($900 per year), unemployment is severe, so that few people benefit from the minimum wage. The extremely poor living conditions in the hinterland were aggravated by drought in 1978-80, and the limited resources have been further strained by the refugees whose presence has exacerbated the demand for water. Prices for basic goods are very high, and standards of living in most of Djibouti very low. 8. Djibouti's economy Is based on service activities related to the military base, the port, and railway to Ethiopia, and the international, commercial and financial establish.ments operating in the capital. Thus its forturnes depend greatly on the demand for these services. In the recent past, demand for port services by Ethiopia has declined with the opening of the Et-hiopian port of Assab. Most of the railway is in Ethiopia but contributes some much needed revenue for Djibouti and employment for Djiboutiarns. In 1979, the tertiary sector dominated in providing 77 percent of GDP. In contrast, agriculture, livestock, fisheries and industry together accounted for only 15 1/ Demographic data are estimates and their reliability remains to be established. The UN Fund for Population Activities is in the early stages of taking a population census, with UNDP financing.  percent of GDP. The military base's direct and indirect purchases of goods and services accounted for about a quarter of GDP. 9. From 1970 to 1976 real GDP increased at an annual average rate of about 6 percent, half the growth coming from construction of roads, schools and other public buildings. The economy has fluctuated since 1976 for four main reasons: (a) the closing of the railway line from March 1977 to June 1978 induced a reduction in service activities; (b) public capital expenditures slowed down after 1977; (c) a reduction in the number of French military personnel; and (d) private investment failed to come forward in part because of instability in the Horn of Africa, and in part because of uncertainties associated with the prospects of independence, even though transition to independence was peaceful. Capital formation was equivalent to about 18 percent of GDP in 1979 and 1980, slightly below the 20 percent average of the early 1970's but considerably above the 8 percent of GDP of 1976-78. 10. Djibouti appears in recent years to have maintained surpluses on its balance of payments, so that its foreign assets were equivalent to SDR120 million in December 1981, or nearly nine months of imports. This situation, however, is highly precarious: (i) this build-up accompanied low investment rates in the 1976-79 period, which may be increased in the near future; (ii) current and capital grants from friendly countries followed the first years of independence but has been declining recently ; and (iii) there are virtually no domestic merchandise exports, and net earnings of the port, railway and airport together account for less than $6 million. The heavily negative balance of trade (SDR78 million in 1981) has for many years been compensated in part by a positive balance on services (SDR20 million in 1981) in which a large portion corresponds to spending on services by non-residents, including personnel of the military base. On the other hand, the import figure is inflated by goods used, especially by the hotel and restaurant trade, in generating these service sector earnings. 11. Until the end of 1981, according to IMF data, the Government maintained a budgetary surplus due to relatively large external assistance, to conservative management of its ordinary budget, and to the low level of development expenditure which it had been able to undertake. Government current and capital expenditure together amounted to about 25 percent of GDP in 1981. Most capital expenditure of the public sector is financed from extra-budgetary sources, so that the 20 percent of Government spending devoted to capital expenditure understates the actual level of public sector investment which in 1978 accounted for about 60 percent of gross capital formation. The increased need for financial resources has been met by raising tax rates and mobilizing more external assistance. Ordinary government revenue receipts reached 23 percent of GDP in 1981 against 20 percent in 1978. In 1980, two-thirds of revenue came from taxes on goods and services. Income tax, first introduced in 1975 and levied on salaries, professional earnings and profits of enterprises provides about 16 percent of recurrent revenue. 12. Since Independence, France has remained the major source of aid through technical assistance (550 technical and advisory staff), FAC grants and budgetary aid. Direct budgetary aid in the form of grants amounted to about $8 million in 1978 and $7 million in 1979. The French civilian aid program has  -4- been mostly in the form of technical assistance. Aid is geared towards health, education, telecommunicatons and pilot irrigation schemes. Presently, budgetary aid is through income taxes paid by French troops and technical assistance personnel, through indirect consumption taxes levied on imported goods purchased by households paid by France, and through indirect financing of Djibouti's armed forces by France. 13. Djibouti is a newly independent country and is therefore just starting to develop and diversify its aid relationships. Initial results are fairly encouraging. Saudi Arabia is the second largest aid donor for Djibouti. In 1978, it gave a $60 million loan for specific sectors and to compensate for oil price increases, with disbursement to occur as viable projects were implemented. Other sources of Arab assistance include the Arab Fund, the Arab League, which provides teachers, Abu Dhabi, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Morocco and Libya. USAID has an annual aid program of $5 million. It has carried out agricultural studies and is implementing technical education and small-scale fisheries projects. West Germany had a program for 1979-81 of about $5 million, including in particular financing a water resources inventory. KfW has joined the Kuwait Fund in financing the container terminal in the port. UNDP's first efforts were directed toward geothermal development. The 1982-86 UNDP program is for about $5.0 million, mostly for planning, social infrastructure, and energy. ADF will finance sewerage in Djibouti city and assist in maintenance and repairs of the port. The EEC is financing a master plan for development of the city, urgent rehabilitation needs of the railway, and a small pilot agriculture project; it has indicated readiness to finance projects in these sectors. 14. Djibouti has thus far maintained a prudent policy about borrowing. Most assistance has been in the form of grants and, as Djibouti has practically no external debt, the debt service will probably remain low in the near future. Djibouti has deposits with commercial banks in Djibouti and the French American Banking Corporation in New York, and the interest earned on these funds has been a useful source of budget revenue. Although needs for concessionary finance stil remain important, the country must in priority take measures to establish greater absorptive capacity in terms of appropriate projects and satisfactory implementation capability. The Government recognizes this need, and it seeks assistance to develop its economic management cpabilities, and its project preparation, evaluation and implementation capabilities in various sectors. 15. The Government has prepared the outline of a three-year development plan, but little other preliminary work has been done to date. Work on the plan should provide Government with the opportunity to define specific long-term goals (desired level of per-capita income, growth rates, sectoral composition of the economy), to identify a series of graduated intermediate objectives, and to design yearly investment programs capable of reaching these intermediate objectives by making maximum use of domestic resources and foreign assistance. In designing its development strategy, Government is likely to maintain the type of liberal economy necessary for an international trading and financial center. 16. The administrative machinery and the skilled personnel necessary to design and implement an appropriate development strategy are, however, lacking. Technical assistance and training are necessary to help the Government outline an overall strategy and to strengthen various government agencies responsible for its implementation. Such a strategy would have to balance development between modern and traditional sectors, to build on available natural resources  - 5 - (geothermal energy and mineral deposits if they prove suitable for exploitation), to strengthen infrastructure (including the railway and the port), and to develop industrial activities capable of generating employment and foreign exchange. Emphasis shou'Ld also be placed on low-cost housing and on basic needs, especially of the poor population living in shanty-towns around the capital and in the hinterland. Bank Group operations are planned to help Djibouti to design and implement such a development strategy and to complement the assistance of other donors. PART II - WORLD BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN DJIBOUTI 17. Djibouti joined the Bank and the Association on October 2, 1980. In preparation, the first economic mission visited the country in March 1979; its report (referred to in paragraph 2 above) was circulated to the Executive Directors on November 3, 1980. Our initial strategy aims at strengthening the country's economic management and development institutions, promoting infrastructure development, and improving provisions to meet the basic needs of the poorest parts of the population. Where possible, it would also allow for productive projects to generate income and to increase export earnings. 18. The proposed highway maintenance project would be the second Bank Group operation in the country, after the $3.0 million credit for a technical assistance project, approved by the Board on April 20, 1982. The technical assistance project, cofinanced with a parallel contribution of $1.46 million from UNDP, is designed to improve the Government's capabilities to formulate an appropriate development strategy, to coordinate development efforts and to engage in planning, project preparation and monitoring. In 1981 the Bank acted as Executing Agency for the UNDP-financed road maintenance study, in preparation for the Highway project. 19. In August 1981, IDA advanced $0.5 million from the Bank's Project Preparation Facility for preparation of an urban development project, which would include components for institution building, infrastructure development and maintenance, employment and income generation, and the provision of shelter and basic urban services to the poorer segments of the population. Government has asked for Bank assistance in the education sector, while the Bank is prepared, should need arise, to consider assistance to the port and railways to supplement assistance at present provided by other agencies. The European Economic Community is financing a study of the longer-term development requirements of the Djibouti-Addis railway, which is likely to involve heavy investment in years to come. 20. In order to assist the Government in coordinating assistance offered and in response to a resolution of the UN General Assembly, the UNDP helped to organize a "Round Table" Donors' Meeting in February 1981. The Bank participated in that Meeting, and will also assist in preparation for the Donors' Conference which the Government wishes to hold in 1983. During the "Round Table" several project proposals and ideas were put forward by Government, but further work was needed before financing could be sought for them. It is expected that the Planning Assistance team provided under the Technical Assistance project will make an important contribution to the project  -6- studies needed, and the Study Fund under the same project is being used to finance consultancy work in connection with the conference. PART III - THE TRANSPORT SECTOR General 21. The transport system of Djibouti comprises about 2,800 km of roads and tracks (of which only about 300 km are paved), 110 km of railway, a port, and an international airport and several airstrips. There are no navigable waterways. The most important part of the system is centered around Djibouti City with its international airport, port and railway terminal. Apart from the paved road between Djibouti City and the Ethiopian border (R.N.1), which links a number of the more important towns, connections to the rest of the country, mostly on some 2,500 km of ill-defined earth tracks, are very poor. A single ferry boat provides the only reliable surface link between Djibouti City and Tadjourah, the most important town in the northern part of the country. Railway 22. The Ethiopia-Djibouti railway, completed in 1917, links the port of Djibouti and Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. Some 95 per cent of the railway's traffic consists of goods to and from Ethiopia. Even though Djibouti's share of the traffic is small, a treaty ratified in 1981 gives Djibouti equal weight in the railway's management, and an equal share of profits, but only makes it responsible for 10 per cent of deficits. Traffic on the system declined from 370,000 tons in 1975 to about 170,000 tons in 1981 partly due to a shift in Ethiopian traffic from the port of Djibouti to the Ethiopian port of Assab. Because of the low traffic the railway is losing money (over $800,000 in 1980). 23. The European Development Fund (EDF), following a study of the railway's short-term needs, is providing about $13 million for the purchase of two diesel locomotives, maintenance equipment, spare parts and other urgent needs. Longer-term needs may include some track renewal and additional purchases of rolling stock. However, the timing and justification for this will depend on the future prospects of Ethiopian traffic on the line, which is difficult to predict given that country's current preference for the Addis-Assab road transport corridor. Port 24. The port of Djibouti is the terminal of the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway. It served as an important bunkering port in the past, but this function is now unimportant. After the French military base the port is the next major generator of economic activity in the country. It is relatively well-equipped with deepwater berths, and adequate warehousing space, cargo-handling and maintenance facilities. Total traffic declined from 640,891 tons in 1976 to 370,063 tons in 1979, due to an 80 per cent reduction in Ethiopian traffic when the railway suspended operations. The port incurred a deficit of DF 142 million in 1980 or about 15 per cent of total receipts. To find ways of attracting traffic and increasing port utilization, a feasibility  -7- study of a container terminal was recently completed by consultants with French finance. The study concluded that a container facility, at an estimated cost of $14 million, would increase transshipment in the port and help to make it financially viable. Although the consultants' traffic projections in the study appear optimistic, especially given competition from other ports in the region, the first two of three construction phases are being financed by Kuwait and Germany with works scheduled to begin in 1982. The third phase is planned to be carried out toward the end of the 1980s. Air Transport 25. Djibouti's international airport is an autonomous public enterprise which reports to the Ministry of Trade, Transport and Tourism. It has a 3,140 meter runway and can handle fully loaded B-747s. Service is provided by Air Djibouti, the national carrier, and six foreign airlines. There are several other airstrips, but only Tadjourah and Obock have scheduled service, provided by Air Djibouti. The airport is in need of rehabilitation, for which the Government is seeking finance from bilateral donors. 26. Air passenger traffic grew by about 3 per cent p.a. between 1975 and 1980, when it reached 240,000. About half of these were in transit. During 1977-1979, Uganda transshipped most of its coffee through Djibouti causing a surge in freight traffic at the airport, but since these shipments have stopped, freight traffic has dropped by 76 per cent to its current level of about 7,800 tons annually. Because of the excess capacity, the airport is not able to operate profitably and must be subsidized indirectly by the French government. It is not expected that this situation will change in the near future. 27. Air Djibouti, established in 1980, is 92 per cent owned by the Government and 8 per cent by Air France. Its fleet includes two Twin-Otters which are used on domestic and regional services, and a recently purchased B-727 which operates on its regional network as well as providing weekly flights to Europe. To protect Air Djibouti, other airlines, in particular Air France, have had to cut back the number of flights serving Djibouti. In spite of this, Air Djibouti required a subsidy of about $3.0 million in 1980. Road Network and Administration 28. The road network comprises about 2,800 km, of which 300 km are paved and 2,500 km are earth roads and tracks. The major part of the paved network is the 217 km road from Djibouti City to the Ethiopian border which links a number of towns; the remaining 83 km are mostly streets in Djibouti City. The unpaved network is made up of ill-defined earth roads and tracks, most of which are in poor condition and passable only by four-wheel drive vehicles. The Government has recently issued a decree classifying the network and identifying a National Road Network of about 1,100 km of priority roads to be targeted for improvement and maintenance. The National Network includes the 300 km of paved roads and streets and about 800 km of earth roads and tracks. There are about 7,000 vehicles in Djibouti of which about three quarters are small and medium sized cars. Traffic volume is low, with roads around Djibouti City having the highest traffic volumes, ranging up to 400 vehicles per day. 29. The Public Works Department (PWD) of the Ministry of Public Works, Urban Affairs and Housing (MPW) is in charge of both the construction and  -8 - the maintenance of rural and urban raain roads. However, its responsibilities until 1982 overlapped with those of the Ministry of Interior (MI) and with the local authorities. Municipalities have up to now been in charge of the maintenance of other urban roads, which are designed and built under the responsibility of PWD; MI, on the other hand, is in charge of the maintenance of secondary roads outside the city. As the local authorities and MI lack expertise and equipment to carry out: these tasks, PWD has regularly been called upon to provide these services on an emergency basis. The Government intends to streamline road administration by reorganizing PWD, and has issued decrees putting it in charge of improvement and maintenance of roads in the City of Djibouti as from January 1, 1983, and the remainder of the National Road Network as of January 1, 1984. This reorganization involves the transfer of personnel, including about 500 laborers from MI to MPW. The issue of a decree satisfactory to the Association providing for the organization of the MPW is a condition of effectiveness (draft Credit Agreement, Section 5.01). 30. PWD is administered largely by expatriates provided by FAC, many of whom are themselves young trainees. About 40 per cent of the Djiboutian staff are young, including a few with high school or college education; of the remaining 60 per cent, who are mostly illiterate, most are approaching the retirement age of 55. PWD thus has the opportunity in the next few years to improve the average level of education of its staff by appropriate recruitment policies. The training of newly recruited personnel would be one of the priorities of the proposed project. Construction 31. PWD carries out some spot improvements, limited resurfacing works and routine maintenance operations by force account, but major construction of roads and larger buildings is carried out principally by foreign contractors. The domestic construction industry consists of small- to medium-sized firms primarily engaged in the housing subsector or as subcontractors to foreign contractors. To promote the development of this industry, domestic contractors would be encouraged to participate as subcontractors for the construction of workshops under the proposed project. Engineering studies and construction supervision are at present carried out exclusively by foreign consultants. The proposed project will help to develop in PWD a capacity to identify projects and to manage consultants more effectively in supervising their implementation. FAC is already supporting this effort by providing technical assistance, training and equipment for the Government's Soils Laboratory. Road Transport, Industry and Regulation 32. Passenger transport service is provided by owner-operated small vehicles or mini-buses for trips outside the city. Freight is also handled by owner-operators using small trucks: few operators have more than one truck. About 80 per cent of the trips made are close to Djibouti City. While passenger fares are set and revised from time to time by the Government, freight tariffs are free of control and are determined by supply and demand. Entry into the road transport industry is subject to license at a nominal fee, and no restrictions are imposed as to route and type of freight to be carried. There are as yet no laws governing axle load limits as the largest trucks in use do not exceed 6 ton capacity.  -9- Fuel Prices 33. Premium and regular gasoline were in November 1981 sold at a controlled retail price equivalent to $.71 and $.63 per litre respectively, including tax of $.20. Diesel fuel, however, retailed at a price equivalent to only $.29 per litre, including $.10 tax. Since at the time the CIF price of all three was approximately $.28 per litre, it is apparent that users of diesel fuel were heavily subsidized, presumably mainly by gasoline purchasers. The great discrepancy between prices of gasoline and diesel is intended by Government to subsidize public and goods transport. Despite a recently introduced annual tax on diesel vehicles, the imbalance has led to substantial imports of diesel cars and trucks. The generally higher price of diesel vehicles makes this a cost to the balance of payments. The issue was discussed during negotiations, and as part of our continuing sector dialogue we will attempt to convince the Government that subsidizing diesel fuel is an inefficient means of redistributing income. Transport Planning and Financing 34. Government has not yet prepared an overall economic plan. The Bank Group's first credit to Djibouti was for technical assistance to strengthen the Planning Directorate in the Presidency and the National Directorate of Statistics, in order to provide Government with the capability to prepare such a plan and to define a development strategy. Given the relatively uncomplicated state of the transport sector, the lack of an effective transport planning capability in MTTT or MPW is not a handicap, especially since Government intends to develop a transport planning and coordination capability in the Planning Directorate. This would make the best use of scarce qualified staff. 35. The Government has ul) to now covered the costs of the relatively small road construction and maintenance works performed through road-user charges. Total expenditures on roads over the past three years have averaged $2.7 million p.a. or about 2 per cent of total Government expenditures, most of which are recurrent expenditure, and has stated its intention of maintaining recurrent expenditures at no less than the present level in real terms. Users contributed about $5.5 million in road-user charges in 1981 which is more than adequate to meet road maintenance requirements including the incremental work envisaged under the project. The Government has received substantial assistance from France in the highway subsector in the form of technical assistance personnel to the Ministry of Public Works for highway administration. The Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development and the Saudi Fund have indicated interest in cofinancing future projects in the transport sector. Sector Development Policy 36. At independence, Djibouti inherited a relatively efficient port and railway system and an excellent airport. Part of the Government's policy is to make Djibouti a regional transshipment point by taking advantage of its geographic location and its relatively good transport facilities; this policy is sound. However, as the country's population was concentrated in the capital city, roads to the hinterland had been neglected, leaving parts of the country virtually cut off from its economic nucleus. The Government's policy for road development has been to improve connections in order to supply outlying areas and to unify the country. So far these improvements have been modest, in line  - 10 - with the low traffic levels. More recently several donors have been approached to help finance upgrading of selected roads which have been designated by the Government as high priority. Not all of these roads can be justified on economic grounds, especially since the extremely rugged terrain and the inaccessibility to much of the country make construction costs very high. For example, among the projects under consideration for financing is the construction of the 125 km road linking Djibouti City to Tadjourah. While the economic feasibility of the project, expected to cost over $75.0 million at its current design standards, is uncertain, the Government intends to proceed with it since it would be the only road link to the economically and physically isolated northern half of the country. In the course of sector dialogue, the Bank will try to ensure that the proposed road meets economically and technically sound design standards. Discussions on the Government's highway sector policies and investment plans were held during negotiations, and will be continued as part of the Association's normal dialogue with the Government during project implementation; Government will also keep the Bank informed about policies affecting other parts of the transport sector (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 4.03). PART IV -- THE PROJECT 37. Government approached the Association for assistance in highway maintenance during a Programs mission in June 1980. The project was appraised by an IDA mission in November 1981, following pre-investment studies carried out by French consultants financed by the UNDP with the Association as executing agency. A report entitled "Djibouti - Highway Maintenance Project - Staff Appraisal Report", (No. 3867-DI) dated September 24, 1982 is being distributed separately. Negotiations were held :in Washington, D.C. in June 1982. The Djiboutian delegation was led by H.E. Mr. Bourhan Ali Warki, Minister of Public Works, Urban Affairs and Housing, and included representatives of the Ministries of Finance, and of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, as well as the Planning Directorate. A Credit and Project Summary is provided at the beginning of this report. A supplementary project data sheet is provided in Annex III. A map of Djibouti is attached. Objectives 38. The proposed project, the Association's first involvement in Djibouti's transport sector, is aimed at assisting the Government in strengthening its road organization to carry out effective, economic and efficient road improvement and maintenance operations, thereby (i) providing easier and more reliable access to the hinterland and (ii) reducing transport costs. The project is also aimed at training local staff and laying the foundation for planning and preparing future road projects. Description 39. The proposed project includes the following: (a) a three-year road improvement and maintenance program including resurfacing of about 25 km of paved roads, routine maintenance of  - 11 - the 300 km of paved roads and streets, and spot improvements and maintenance with hand tools on about 800 km of priority earth roads and tracks; (b) improvement of equipment maintenance facilities, including construction of workshops in Djibouti City and service stations in Tadjourah and Dikhil; and (c) technical assistance comprising consulting services to strengthen the road organization, to train personnel and to prepare preinvestment studies to identify the improvement needs and priorities of the road network, and fellowships for the training of road maintenance personnel. (a) Road Improvement and Maintenance Program 40. PWD's routine maintenance brigade must work with obsolete equipment to maintain the 300 km network of paved roads and streets; its resurfacing brigade is relatively well-equipped, but lacks experience in the field; spot improve- ments and emergency maintenance on the earth roads and tracks are carried out by a mobile brigade which lacks experienced personnel. PWD also runs an aggregate crushing plant and asphalt emulsion plant which supply the brigade with mate- rials. Teams of laborers of the MIl, nominally in charge of routine maintenance of earth roads and tracks, have been ineffective. The proposed project would initiate a three-year program to provide appropriate road maintenance operations on the National Road Network of about 1,100 km of priority roads, including the 300 km of paved roads and streets and about 800 km of earth roads and tracks. The program would specifically include (i) patching and resealing of the 300 km of paved roads; (ii) resurfacing of a 25-km section of the Djibouti-Ethiopia border road (R.N.1), where it crosses the sand desert of Grand Bara; and (iii) spot improvements and routine maintenance on the 800 km of earth roads and tracks. The project will provide the equipment, spare parts, tools, materials and supplies for these works. (b) Workshops 41. PWD's equipment is poorly maintained due partly to its small, ill-equipped facilities: the small workshop in Djibouti City is the only equipment maintenance facility in the country. Built before independence to handle light vehicles, it is located in a crowded site, and lacks space, necessary equipment and tools. In addition to the Djibouti workshop, a small service station was recently constructed in Tadjourah to handle minor repairs of trucks and light vehicles. The proposed project would provide for (i) building * and equipping a new workshop in Djibouti City including sites and services; (ii) expanding the service station in Tadjourah to enable it to handle road equipment; and (iii) constructing and equipping new maintenance facilities in Dikhil. The Government will acquire the necessary land for these facilities by July 1, 1983 (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.07). (c) Consulting Services and Fellowships 42. While PWD benefits from French technical assistance, some of the staff provided lack practical field experience. The proposed project would therefore provide experts to carry out specific and urgent tasks for relatively short  - 12 - periods. These tasks would include: initiating proper road maintenance operations, carrying out resurfacing works, and running the workshops, service stations and sheds. The team of experts provided by the project would include (i) a road engineer (12 man-months) to assist in spot improvements and road maintenance; (ii) a mechanical engineer with expertise in procurement and warehousing (36 man-months); and (iii) a road engineer with management accounting experience (36 man-months). He would be expected to introduce proper accounting procedures in the operations of the workshops and road works, and to establish unit costs of these operations. A workshop manager, provided by FAC, is already in the field; Government would engage a master mechanic expected to be provided on a parallel basis by F?AC, who will arrive in Djibouti not later than July 1, 1983 (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.03). 43. Consulting services would be provided to prepare engineering studies for the improvement of about 250 km of tracks to improved earth road standards. The improvement works are expected t:o be financed outside the project, possibly by the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (which has indicated to the Government that it may be willing to finance the works starting in 1984). The project also provides for consulting services for preinvestment studies for the rehabilitation of the first 30 km section of R.N.1 from Djibouti City, which connects most of the towns in the southern part of the country. This road section, which carries the heaviest traffic in Djibouti, was built 30 years ago and maintenance operations can no longer effectively arrest the accelerating deterioration of the pavement. Consultant services would also be provided to assist the Government in preparing detailed engineering and bidding documents and supervision of works for the construction of workshops. 44. Counterparts, including engineers, workshop mechanics, road technicians, storekeepers and accountants will be attached to all consultants and technical experts provided under the project. The experts will be required by their terms of reference to provide their counterparts with on-the-job training. The project would also provide fellowships for eight instructors who will train equipment operators and road technicians. 45. Consultants with French financing have assessed the country's technical training needs, and how to improve its training facilities to meet these needs. The Government has sent this report to IDA, and will exchange views with the Association on its proposals based thereon for training Public Works personnel (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 4.02). Fellowships would be awarded to eight suitable PWD employees. Government would furnish to the Association for approval a detailed program for training to be financed under the project including the names and qualifications of the candidates, the type and costs of training the proposed training institutions and an indication of assignments to be given to the trainees upon their return to Djibouti (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.04). Cost Estimates and Financing 46. Total project costs, net ofE taxes and duties, are estimated at $8.0 million equivalent of which about $1.6 million equivalent or 20 percent are local costs and about $6.4 million equivalent or 80 percent are foreign costs. The Government will exempt the project from taxes and duties estimated at $2.4 million. The costs and financing plan are summarized in the Credit and Project Summary. Cost estimates for equipment, tools, spare parts, materials and  - 13 - supplies are based on recent bid prices and quotations in Djibouti. The costs of civil works are in line with the costs of recent and ongoing similar works in the country. Physical contingencies of 10 percent have been applied to workshop construction; price contingencies of 8.5 percent in 1982 and 7.5 percent per annum thereafter have been applied. The man-month costs of technical assistance and consulting services are estimated at $9,200 as follows: $6,000 for salaries and overhead such as home office expenses and $3,200 for reimbursable expenses such as subsistence, housing, travel and telecommunications. The costs of fellowships are estimated at $l0,000 per student per year including tuition and fees, hou-ing, travel and subsistence. Financing Plan 47. IDA would finance about 80 percent of the total project costs, net of taxes and duties, or $6.4 million equivalent, which represents the total foreign costs. Government's contribution of $1.6 million equivalent would include finance for salaries ($0.6 million) of incremental local personnel directly involved in the improvement works; part of civil works ($0.9 million); and the cost of aggregates ($0.1 million). The Government would also be responsible for the acquisition of land for the construction of workshops and would continue to contribute about $1.0 million for salaries of personnel involved in the routine maintenance of the targeted road network. Project accounts will be audited by an auditor acceptable to IDA. Project Implementation and Procurement 48. The Ministry of Public Works, through its Public Works Department and with the assistance of consultants, would be responsible for implementing the project. The project would be implemented over about three years starting the first quarter of calendar year 1983. Road maintenance equipment, materials and supplies would be delivered by June 1984. Spot improvement and maintenance operations would be carried out on the national road network for three years starting April 1983. The preparation of bidding documents, procurement procedures and construction of workshops would take about 21 months to complete, starting in April 1983. The preinvestment studies should start in April 1983 and take about 15 months to complete including a three-month review period by the Government and IDA. 49. The spot improvements and routine maintenance operations on the National Road Network and resurfacing works would be carried out by force account; PWD brigades would be provided with necessary additional equipment and experienced personnel to carry out these tasks. The construction of workshops would be executed by contractors selected through international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group Guidelines. To provide domestic contractors an opportunity to participate, foreign contractors would be encouraged to make maximum possible use of domestic contractors including subcontracting work and supplying construction materials. Equipment, spare parts, materials and supplies would also be procured on the basis of contracts following international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group Guidelines. All items would be bulked to the extent possible to make them attractive to international manufacturers and dealers. Aggregates would be acquired from PWD's own crushing plant. Consulting services would be provided by consulting firms on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association.  - 14 - 50. Government's procurement procedures date to pre-independence and are written in such a way that they allow complete discretion to Government in making awards: the lowest evaluated t:ender need not be selected and the whole tender evaluation procedure as well as bid opening is carried out secretly. These bidding procedures and their deviation from those acceptable to the Bank Group were discussed with the Government, which indicated that it would be writing a new procurement code, but that for Bank-financed projects it would comply with ICB. Because of the Government's lack of familiarity with the Association's ICB procedures and its implications as a departure from its current procedures, procurement procedures will be carefully monitored during project implementation. Disbursements 51. The IDA credit would be disbursed against 70 percent of total expenditures for the construction of workshops, 100 percent of expenditures for technical assistance services; and 1()0 percent of foreign exchange costs of equipment, spare parts, tools, materials and supplies if directly imported, or 90 percent of the cost of these items if locally purchased. All disbursements would be fully documented. Disbursements are expected to begin in the first half of 1983; the completion date is June 30, 1986 and the closing date December 31, 1986. Benefits and Justification 52. The proposed project would help to improve maintenance operations on the whole paved network and contribute to developing an organization capable of undertaking basic minimum maintenance! on about 800 km of earth roads and tracks on which, up to now, no effective maintenance has been carried out. The project would also facilitate transport within the country for goods and passengers and reduce transport costs. Those people living in areas only accessible by track would benefit from improved access tc facilities and better distribution of food and supplies. Because of the keen competition in the transport industry, any savings in vehicle operating costs can be expected to be passed on to transport users. 53. The resurfacing of a 25 km section of R.N.1 where it crosses the Grand Bara will arrest the rapid deterioration of this section thus protecting an investment already made. While the present traffic level is low, about 60 vehicles per day, this section would revert to gravel standard in three years and would have to be reconstructed in 5 years if the proposed works were not undertaken. Additional benefits would be reduction in vehicle operating costs, which would otherwise increase due to the rapidly deteriorating road situation. Economic evaluation shows that the resurfacing component would be well justified with an ERR of 58 percent based on an. economic life of 5 years. 54. The maintenance program consists of routine maintenance on about 300 km of paved roads and streets and 800 km of tracks and earth roads. The works would concentrate on reducing the amount of potholing and edge ravelling on paved roads, repairing drainage works, and minor road works on the earth and gravel roads. This project component would yield average economic returns in excess of 100 percent for both paved and earth roads.  - 15 - Risks 55. There are no major technical risks involved in the proposed project. However, as this is the first IDA operation in Djibouti, other than the technical assistance project, there! may be delays in implementation linked with procurement of equipment, materials and supplies, recruitment of necessary qualified staff, construction of the workshops, or the Government's reluctance to provide local financing. Such delays could slow down the maintenance effort with consequent reductions in benefits. To reduce these risks, the project includes technical assistance responsible for specific project components. Moreover, project preparation has been satisfactory, and the implementation schedule adopted seems realistic. Frequent supervision by IDA staff during the initial stages of the project will be undertaken. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 56. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Djibouti and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association, are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 57. The draft Development Credit Agreement conforms to the usual pattern of agreements on highway projects. Special conditions are listed in Section III of Annex III of this report. 58. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 59. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A.W. Clausen President Attachments Washington DC November 9, 1982  - 16 - ANNEX I TABLE 3A DJIBOUTI - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET Page 1 of 5 DJIBOUTI REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVRAGES AREA (THOUSAND SO. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- TOTAL 22.0 MOST RECENT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 2.4 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE lb AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST GNP PER CAPITA (US$) .. 390.0 480.0 1053.2 1253.6 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 273.7 311.1 281.7 610.1 713.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 81.0 160.0 352.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 49.6 62.0 73.7 28.3 47.3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 0.6 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED .. . . POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KR. 3.7 7.3 14.8 54.7 35.8 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 33.1 65.3 132.7 129.9 420.9 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. .. .. .. 46.0 44.3 15-64 YRS. .. .. .. 51.1 52.4 65 YRS. AND ABOVE .. .. .. 2.8 3.3 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.7 6.8 7.9/c 2.8 2.8 URBAN .. 9.0 9.6 5.2 4.6 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. .. .. 47.2 41.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. .. .. 15.7 12.2 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. .. .. 3.2 2.9 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) .. .. .. 90.7 100.4 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) .. .. .. 93.9 108.5 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) .. .. .. 54.8 71.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. .. .. 17.0 18.0 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 23.0 16.0 10.0 23.9 15.1 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) .. .. 45.0/d 51.0 56.9 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 69.1 32.6 30.0/e 118.5 104.3 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 59.1 URBAN .. .. .. .. 83.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. 39.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN .. .. 4296.9/f 14185.2 4015.5 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON .. .. 514.67d 2213.2 1802.2 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 124.6 169.9 261.9/f 1036.4 641.7 URBAN .. .. .. 430.8 538.3 RURAL .. .. .. 3678.6 2403.3 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. 13.7/f .. 25.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. 7.0 URBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. URBAN .. .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. URBAN .. .. .. .. RURAL .. .. ..  - 17- ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 TABLE 3A DJIBOUTI - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET DJIBOUTI REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGTESD AVjAGES - MOST RECENT tSTIMATE)- MOST RECENT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SARARA NORTb AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL .. .8 .. 83.3 88.7 MALE .. .. .. 96.1 104.5 FEMALE .. .. .. 80.4 72.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL .. .. .. 15.3 39.7 MALE .. .. .. 19.4 49.3 FEMALE .. .. .. 11.3 29.0 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (% OF SECONDARY) 37.9 44.0 16.3 4.7 10.1 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 36.1 35.7 39.4 38.6 34.1 SECONDARY 12.9 12.3 13.5L& 23.4 23.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) ,, ,, 14.0 35.6 43.3 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 48.7 42.9/f 31.9 17.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 43.8 49.2 71.8 131.3 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 6.3 11.4 17.9 44.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. .. 19.1 31.5 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. .. 2.3/g 0.6 1.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) FEKALE (PERCENT) .. .. .. 36.5 10.6 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) .. .. .. 56.5 42.4 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) .. .. .. 17.7 27.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL .. .. .. 37.0 26.0 MALE .. .. .. 46.9 46.2 FEMALE .. .. .. 27.2 5.6 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO .. .. .. 1.3 1.9 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US5 PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 507.0 279.2 RURAL .. .. .. 200.6 178.6 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 523.9 403.6 RURAL .. .. .. 203.6 285.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. .. .. 22.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. 30.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availabllity of data and is not uniform. lb Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1978 and 1980. Ic This high rate reflects steady immigration from neighboring countries; /d 1976; /e UNICEF data; /f 1977; 1975. May, 1982  -18 - ANNEX I OF SOCIAL MCATOU ~Page 3 f 5 *N.C.. 1100-9k cm0 laSs t drive Sr.. "urgeS me"a1Lly juIget Ie mat authoritative aid I511061., It Mouild 0150 h. 1C0.4 IhiS tnoy MY 01 bi Lnte:- moatta..I Ly CeuporbL. Secause of Ch. LisCk of ildar4Lzed d4.410111.l .04 co5Sip00 00 by diffrerael .aantgL".i 4sO.LLGSl* the data. TM0 date Cr. aut5 Chains5, a.afaL to describe aldWs of m1w1RUde, 1d410.4. Criads, sed chrigrSe..611 00)t.t saio 410t Tomes. bole.. c005101is. the Wr msnriec .p9f99 ie (1) 1k' sue 1016ery group of ch. subect... 00r0 am4 (0) a amo.ry gronp .0gb .1.5.960 bwl a ve, ins Iscoum than0 cbS .OOCiry 1150 of Ch. Cobbj.. golgry (*acipt for '%Loh lo5050. 01. blpornin." Slowp to:. lm"111 lactose 9:th AtrIca 054 11441. SasS" is chtow b..4.m 01 .1:94. eJ.rl o f the unnIt Isa . gmg bh. date for t10t 14ado:a, StIn. hbe *Cow:.. of -%,or Issues04 tU16.1041001t0' depoIi on thes SOCLliblIly .f 8ate a L.I non aLlots. MCI110*00.0 he anirgtted 10 r0015anrat- .5 01I. tIia t. 40500.1... .-i50. an o*iy uafj L. 1, paOln.S t00 0010 of 050104.050 01 4 11.0 amongze lItowaS1 sa i ee.. 5r1w,. 101h.Tboai4 sq4)yaualn c apIo Rh-lnI urban ai url-Poplata (oc T."10 - 710:1 -.Ifa.e area -co.s10a Lead area ad .10.8d ..1-sr; 1979 dat.,ubn n.ual m44b 01 r IIacln no.90: 30 00*011.1 boO Asfl000)91- a1 BLlets of aSrIcolt ...I roo, dead toWono-ily cr yflatescLy ... Liable L. pi 1. 00 prin.ts S.. r.1 and p.1.lad h. d bap I.*1:- fo coy, asur... -0560 004 k0.h114. s-ord or tn 1I. Xa1n 979 data. h i.I-inIo reare.. SospLCi. al . tbi.hes.lt: p.-Snfly .101!.d by 01 Lsa ... t-Physicist. ZostkbLiWas.sl p-t4ldln yPCllplly I.lO fOSP P1 CAPITA (US5) 11 ..PW011 -atat. ... a .....rre 1- sno t .r ..... ca- di1.1,sr ace 041 lOnudid. L .. I hoeptlo.. h0..-5. Lotlods4, bolI,b OuloliO by *0= 01005:5105.01.'1hc4 .. World Cask Wa1s (1974-80 beatis); 1990. . i1a .1: 0 parmesesely -lafod by 0f hraIn Ia (bal II.: 1970, Ie 90 .. dal s1lilwe, l.s,..1000 ff.: tit-pllnat saa- dCti.. iad P-enid. a ILal-ai1d rt . o eia 01 s . For.01 rIYC009 1109yn CMIT-Acta oaotlnof -o-rtl 100 .- coal lCA-1 P-ryoses u-b.. h.aylrul 110,040 hdaWis Priip.I/Saansl hospital., and llalt. yn_ola. n-lu-a gus aud .y . o .. I.-no 004 g isrO also- andrur Co.yltlo, local -r run piostIsl 004 tdLcal s.d.aIsonlty Lr.ly kIt llcr.- of .o.l oquioa1... p.r -pilto; 1960. 109X;. aod 1079 corS. py.llti h-epiCIal. a - tocldad only unter tull. data. udeiloooo aor Boalad 0 - Total ... sor f0 adi...ot 10 rdnc,r. M ro h-spitnI d01id.44 by the... tuso f0 ab.d. yC0lLAcI0o 000 VITAL OIATOSYOCS I0.1 LOualto~. d-fan, llOhoeaOs 00 o.f July 1; 1960. 1970. .td 1IM0 60101* data. A- rus Sloe of n-sbOd (ps, -.onisa hnaInbld-toa. ltba. o 'Irrl- rboo P-aalatla (....... of Coca!) - MC0.:10a u.kb. . ac lot rocupl.ttct; hae.01.01 ntta ofoSna Il dtvdu 110 . . 1111f qarer dISf.l..t L.fLotiaao, of urba or-i earaflot coarI.bllly of dnt. nod aol: - f.0 1.,tlA.0 b-oden ar 10455? my oray 101 be lotladed L. CottcoaatlO 1940, 1970. aid1990 doa. 100 ..boabld fo Ctatslael punOae P. alu1t.00P ?ostlaalaosefrofnroanrre- oa.uba 0 rura -..ri. ta .P.eaao In ...: 2000 -Canlaoltepoiolaor id0019brofar..arro aliuk.00rolaooa nstttl total roPa1Latl, by a.. aad 000 04d 10h1: mtoIcy aad stfLlty rota.. diilla.S.. -ipeatmoaly. 1.0111.oa aaola. 0-.-p. -t.......Cota. aud Fra..isol poCsaat... f o ralt rua at of thri. 1I.-1. as- a nptad parts. n:1100 oopf tacy . bLrthb ... Loc aasa i ooth y' P., c.pil. 1....Ice to Ilc1 t .. -t,n(otn o nLao.s, -d11 sba 0 ,rurl - Is_al. aad feals Iif. a syeo y ... btll.inS at 77.2 y.orc. Th. p.... Catoattona dua.llnC IConnorct 10 Lane qa as Pat ...tCos mairs for ferallltyrot C la banh. Cbs.. l-mb 000uada docItt a 10o tota L, urb- ..sd ltril duellttsn.oI.P,ictrily. farnLLllyacadIn t Ii_oa_ 10001 sed Pao C ooly plab.oal,% yorc.rmons So-l coutr to ,:n oootgo ame ofp10. t1s. o.baelanals of -Iornlty EDCACTtION .4d firolt 114 for rro.c_t4on .,P.-.o. cAloinad uo t Ratios OnotLonoo onuos to I .o C :at.onany ppl th..or L. lo aroenh :L...100 tao ttl sole ad f.aalo - Croanta,aa00 sLs tha ..rt. roa.ieua o10dabt. ec04 alo t. Cho s6,truaa in eel.ano ol0 1 abs P o loal . p atg. of rspcn et. c:tol 1C010 IsabI-d oaly ft.s fertility r.t.. dacllan Lo ysi.ay hcoa-aI-. papalalla_ naCly ltclluds cOlIdr.n 01.4 6411 rh'a P rius.on oil- a fal non rosOuoln rat. vatt coeb aoan-rut1o yans bun adjutad f ar diffasaa anthI o .rI:r ..ucIa..; for of -ea nI.cC atcl a Coly. Th. etattoaor -ouolI. Clis.oa houoer... 00 I cl dses Lttos etoll t sair Ica 100 Pact--- 0011.0t.4 an thc beat. of tke praj-eold ..alaI:a of tIke PI.. yultaaL..ci ooo pupIl. are 1010 or O.oe tho offi.Ia1 schaol Sl.. Ia nb. year 2000. aid :0ca, of, 4. 1110 of fertility ran,, to r.la. lOno oro5100 ..tot.. salj.-, and e - Caaae.d ..nno.b. I ...d-y liar enoajonar OOoaCleo ts rawbid -.Th. y..r 1ekeo sacoary.. yopa,latio: Ifods*asl.nntaa,o :akrlo0a l:t:olos n uis .10. .011 b.raOcbid. usua~~~~~lly of 12 Cn 17 Cnara a .. ::. ':,reeadoe.caen a.Caso P..L.otIoo On-aty 001004 Par 00. Ii. - 014-y..r papal.tloa pn sose. kilaoets: 1100 MoCCana) of Vocaliotal -osolleat earst of nCoodarn)L-...tlaa it.tiu ...t 10:01 aen; 1960. 1970 aid 1979 4d-. Inlui wllaI I001:.1 orml, prom... t40 ooa: t4y Psr ... I.. -assltulcul load - laatad as A.-r for .1rltoLtaal Loand anl r sdo.san nl n- a ataa, an oILy; 1960. 1970 sed97 RI aM . `uotl-Ssuo -ee 001 .rtcau,. cad sonn40s C=00 saos osnl.d A.uano nSaran Cars )fyse C Can ld- 001:a 0-16 years). unrkliS-as. (11- Irlry id end.ry I5.-I. d416044 by ha.erof Iach.,In10 64 ..y.s. an..d -allsd (65 an aid or.) as panata.9 iS.d-yaar Ppol- -orsaoidn eCa I.loOa 1960, 1970. aid 1980 40-. Aualt lsso riosa: lI rr - LItaral. adulta 101. 10 r-d 00 011.) Pon'a-Ltot Gromh I..a -Cot) - latCl - nasoil g-hm :ae f Ctota .14- a.Lasoaa a ai d 801 PapOuLla