Zambia - An appraisal and suggestions for strengthening the planning division

Document of The World Bank Report No. 4092-7A ZAMBIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT AN APPRAISAL AND SUGGESTIONS FOR STRENGTHENING THE PLANNING DIVISION December 6, 1982 Eastern Africa Projects Department Southern Agriculture Division This report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing the views of the World Bank. The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Zambian Kwacha (K) US$1.096 = K 1.00 US$1.00 = K 0.9123 US$1,000 = K 912.3 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency DP - Director of Planning MAWD - Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development NCDP - National Commission for Development Planning PD - Planning Division PS - Permanent Secretary SIDA - Swedish International Development Agency UJSAID - United States Agency for International Development Sections of Planning Division ASS - Agricultural Statistics MS - Marketing PPE - Project Planning and Evaluation RDS - Regional Development SPS - Sectoral Planning TA - Technical Assistance Proposed Sections of Planning Division ASS - Agricultural Statistics BAS - Budget Analysis P&M - Production and Marketing PAI - Project Analysis and Implementation SPA - Sectoral Policy Analysis TA - Technical Assistance GOVERNMENT OF ZAMBIA FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ZAMBIA AN APPRAISAL AND SUGGESTIONS FOR STRENGTHENING THE PLANNING DIVISION Table of Contents Page No. I. INTRODUCTION A. Role of Agricultural Sector: Present and Future ..... I B. Role of Planning Division in Brief 2... *....... 2 C. Objectives of the Study ..*.*.*...*. ..0 ....... 3 D. Method of Analysis ... . . .. . . . .. . . . . ......... . . ..... . . 4 II. DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE PLANNING DIVISION A. Present Functions and Organization Technical Assistanice (TA) ............... -6 ...... 7 Project Planning and Evaluation Section (PPE) ........ 7 Regional Development (RDS) ........ ............... 8 MXarketing (MS) ....................** ...... .* ................. 8 Sectoral Policy Analysis (SPA) .............O.......... 9 Agricultural Statistics (ASS) ........................ 10 Overall Staff Strength ............................... 10 B. Management Procedures Staff Meeting ........ .................................. 13 Section Work Programs .............. . . ... 13 Responsibilities Overlap and Lapses .................. 14 C. Constraints Public Service Constraints , ................ 16 Staff Constraints and Staff Quality o ........a.......... 17 Staff Deployment .................... ............ ... ......... 20 Hardware Constraints ..* * * ............. ...... . ....... 20 Documentation Constraint .... ** ....................... 21 D. Work Program This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visited Zambia in April 1982, consisting of 'W. Candler and B. Zegge (IDA). This documient has a restricted distributioirn and rnay be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Table of Contents (cont'd) Page No. III. PROPOSALS TO INCREASE PLANNING DIVISION'S EFFECTIVENESS A. Objective of Proposals ...... ......................... 23 B. Proposals ........... ................................. 24 Divisional Objectives and Responsibilities ........... 24 Modification of Sectional Responsibilities ........... 27 Sectional Objectives and Work Programs .. ............. 28 Final Products Expected ...... ........................ 34 Management Procedures ............. ............... . , 42 Report Review Procedures .... ......................... 43 Staff Work Programs ....... ........................... 43 Staff Needs .......................................... 43 Hardware . ............................................. 44 ANNEXES 1. Current Organogram of Planning Division (June, 1982) 2. MAWD Proposal for New Organogram of Planning Division and Job Descriptions. 3. Mission Proposal for New Organogram of Planning Division 4. Summary of Impact of (Mission) Proposals for Reorganization 5. Staff Strength of Planning Division, April 1982 6. Suggested Planning Division Work Program 7. Proposal for Microcomputer Configuration 8. Sectoral Analysis Section: Quarterly Work Plan (January - March 1982) TABLES 1. Staff Allocation in Planning Division 2. Job Experience of Local PD Staff 3. Professional Qualification of PD Staff  ZAMBIA AN APPRAISAL AND SUGGESTIONS FOR STRENGTHENING THIE PLANNING DIVISION OF MAWD 1 I. INTRODUCTION A. Role of Agricultural Sector: Present and Future 1.1 Zambia is unusual amongst Sub-Saharan countries in having only 15 percent of GDP derived from agriculture. Nevertheless, most Zambians earn their living from agriculture, and the country has an impressive agricultural potential. Unlike some African countries, there is generally no land pressure, but like other African countries, Zambia has an increasing number of unemployed or under-employed persons. Despite its high potential agriculture grew in the period 1970-1980 at only about 1.5 percent per annum, compared to a population growth rate of 3 percent. 1.2 Currently, Zambia obtains 95 percent of her export earnings from copper, in contrast food imports represent about 10 percent of total imports, and for many years Zambia has been a net importer of agricultural commodities. 2/ Unfortunately, the long-term prospects for continued copper earnings are not bright. The most readily accessible and highest yieldings deposits have been largely exploited, so that mining costs per tonne of ore are rising rapidly. Economically recoverable ore reserves are estimated to last for about 20 years at current rates of production (about 600,000 tons/annum). 1.3 There may be some scope for increased production of other minerals, such as nickel, cobalt and uranium, but these will require major investments and, in any case, do not seem likely to provide a full substitute for declining copper revenues. 1.4 Thus, there has been renewed interest by Government in agriculture and, particularly, in its potential role as a major earner of foreign exchange. While the biological potential of agriculture is generally agreed to be very great (commercial farmers obtain maize yields seven times as large as traditional farmers), there is much less agreement on the policies and likely investments needed to accelerate attainment of this potential. 1.5 The post-colonial period has in large measure continued the colonial "cheap-food" policy with large consumer subsidies on maize and wheat being designed to abate the wage claims of the unionized mine workers and politically active urban population. Despite large fertilizer subsidies, which benefited mainly the large commercial maize producers, food subsidies, assistance to marketing parastatals and low producer prices 1/ This report is the result of a visit to the Planning Division (PD) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development (MAWD) by Messrs. Candler and Zegge from April 18-28, 1982. 2/ Cereals and Dairy Products imports cost K28M in 1979.  -2- have generally dwarfed the support for agricultural production. In particular, assistance to the traditional sector, apart from a few recent projects, has been minimal. 1.6 A substantial contribution to the balance of payments would be made if Zambia could achieve food self-sufficiency. To some extent, this would be "relatively simple", since it would "only" require a faster rate of expansion of the existing food sector and, indeed, the TNDP targets call for self-sufficiency in maize and rice by 1983. 1.7 In addition to food self-sufficiency, Zamiba in view of its agricultural potential, could strive for greater agriculture contribution to export earnings. In building an export oriented agriculture, however, Zambia will be starting almost from scratch. 3/ Some expansion of cotton, groundnuts and tobacco production can be counted on, and there is scope for regional maize exports, but beyond this the new export crops remain to be identified, their technologies learnt, incentive structures put in place and infrastructural and marketing systems developed. This will require major investments and major policy decisions, and major improvements in support services for agriculture. B. Role of the Planning Division 2.1 The role of the Planning Division (PD) is discussed in greater detail in Section II, but in the most general terms, the role of the PD as perceived by MAWD is to: 4/ (a) maintain certain statistical series and records; (b) provide advice on agricultural policy; (c) design, evaluate and monitor projects in the agricultural sector; and (d) coordinate the capital budget, annual reports, etc., for MAWD. 2.2 The PD has not had a monopoly on any of these functions. Agricultural Statistics are also collected by the Central Statistical 3/ Agricultural exports were K15M in 1967 and the same in 1974. In 1979 they were only K4.8M. 4/ It should be noted, however, that MAWD's perception of the role of the PD is not necessarily shared by other public institutions and individuals (e.g., UNIP, parastatals, politicians, etc.). To the extent that this is true, then there is a fundamental problem of whether bureaucrats in the DP can and should provide policy advice or rather their role should simply consist of implementing political decisions. The underlying assumption in this report is that the DP, as part of the Government, has the mandate to provide policy analysis and advice to decision makers at various levels of political decision making in the country (i.e., ministry, cabinet, central committee, etc.).  -3- Office (CSO). 5/ Agricultural Policy is also developed on an 'ad hoc' basis by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) 6/ and National Commission for Development Planning (NCPD), Agricultural Projects are designed by the Provinces, Parastatals, Department of Agriculture and NCDP in addition to the PD. However, it is probably fair to say that the PD has had the major and most consistent responsibility for these functions. 2.3 It has already been remarked that the past (inward looking) role of agriculture is likely to be quite different from a more desirable future role oriented towards expart. This implies the need for reorientation of the PD where past work patterns are not suitable for what will be required in the future. In the past, the major annual policy contribution has been a Cabinet Memorandum on Agricultural Prices. This focused particularly on the maize price, veering between a concern to keep costs down and a concern to cover costs of commercial farmers and produce enough for domestic requirements. Other prices (e.g., for cotton, sunflower, etc.) were recommended simultaneously, but not with a view towards exports or in consideration of the relative prices among crops. 2.4 Similarly, the PD's project work was largely motivated by a desire to achieve food self-sufficiency, and to increase the incomes of commercial producers. Very little thought has been given to exports and the complexities involved in the process of developing a smallholder agriculture. 2.5 In the future thes PD will be called on for policy advice pertaining to exports. Since many of these products and approach will be new, the PD's advice will need to cover much more than.price. The whole gamut of issues from encouraging investment and learning good husbandry, assuring supplies of inputs and prompt payment for production, marketing channels, processing and transportation will need to be addressed. In the same way the volume and diversity of agricultural projects will need to be expanded and consistently nmonitored. 2.6 This increased importance of the PD in guiding agricultural policy towards self-sufficiency and a major export role, as well as increased rural incomes, mc,tivates, in large part, the present review of its activities. C. Objectives of the Study 3.1 The overall objective of this study is to make MAWD's PD a more responsive and effective agency for planning, project implementation and policy advice. Specific objectives are: (a) to review and assess the capability of the PD in meeting the new and complex challenges engendered by public policy shift towards an expanded and diversified agricultural sector to meet national objectives for increased food production, agricultural export and increased rural employment and incomes; 5/ Technically, the staff of the Statistics Section of the PD are seconded from CSO. 6/ For instance, agricultural subsidy policy is basically made by MOF.  -4- (b) to identify needs and recommend measures for strengthening the PD in order to enable it to play the role of being the primary Government advisor on the implementation of agricultural sector policies and programs. 3.2 This study is deemed important for the following reasons: (a) It will assist MAWD to determine the extent of resource needs for strengthening the PD; (b) It will provide a proposed work program that will enable the PD to become more responsive and effective in its role of providing sectoral planning, coordination and policy guidance to institutions managing agricultural development in the country; (c) It will provide a mechanism and procedures for the Permanent Secretary of MAWD to monitor and check on progress made in implementing the Division's work program; and (d) It will assist the Bank and other aid agencies to assess the extent to which agricultural planning and policy generation would be a constraint to long-term agricultural development and to assess the role that they could play in alleviating this. D. Method of Analysis 4.1 The analysis in this study is based on observations and interviews with the Permanent Secretary, Director of Planning and Staff of the PD and officials of the NCDP and of some bilateral donors. 7/ The analysis contains the following three main parts: (a) An introduction describing the role of the agricultural sector at present and in the near future, and the new role of the PD engendered by the new and complex challenges in Zambia's agricultural development; (b) A diagnostic analysis of the PD, outlining its staff strength, organizational structure, functions and procedures as well as its major constraints; (c) Some proposals toward an effective PD consisting of redefined functions and role; a work program of reviews, analyses and studies; control, review and coordination procedures, staff deployment and staff and hardware requirements. 7/ USAID and CIDA.  -5- 4.2 A modified 'management by objective' approach was adopted in assessing PD's shortcomings and strengths and in formulating proposals to remedy the constraints. This approach involved the following stages: (a) Describing and redefining PD's objectives and functions; (b) Conducting analyses of PD's problems and constraints; (c) Formulating objectives of PD's sections in relation to identified problems and constraints, but tied to the overall objectives of PD; (d) Developing a work program for meeting overall and section objectives; and (e) Devising procedures for review and control of progress toward achievement of overall and section objectives. 4.3 This approach has three distinct advantages. Firstly, it places the responsibility of overseeing the implementation of the work program developed for achieving divisional and section objectives on the Director of Planning and Section Heads respectively. Secondly, the approach does not require or imply the creation of new and specialized administrative structures nor does it introduce new sets of administrative regulations - both of which would require the approval of the Civil Service Commission - it simply introduces management and control procedures which will accentuate staff accountability but which are generally permissible under the existing civil service code. Thirdly, on the basis of divisional and section objectives and constraints, it permits the allocation of resources (e.g., staff time) in accordance with established priorities without resorting to diversion of staff time to 'fire-fighting' activities which characterize the present work system.  -6- II. DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE PLANNING DIVISION A. Present Functions and Organization 5.1 The Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development (MAWD) is responsible for overall policy formulation, planning and coordination of agricultural development and for providing the bulk of agricultural services to Zambian farmers, as well as providing general direction of the operation of various parastatal and cooperative organizations involved in the agricultural sector. MAWD is headed by a Permanent Secretary (PS), assisted by an Undersecretary responsible for administration, finance and personnel. There are four operating departments in MAIM, each headed by a Director: the Department of Agriculture; of Veterinary and Tsetse Control Services; of Marketing and Cooperatives; and of Water Affairs. The Planning Division, which is headed by a Director who is directly responsible to the PS, is a non-operating (staff) agency which coordinates capital budget, planning, project implementation and advises on sectoral policy and compiles agricultural statistics. 5.2 In a recent (1981) memorandum 8/ on the reorganization of the former Planning Unit into a fully-fledged Planning Division, the overall responsibilities of the PD were described as the "provision of policy advice to the Permanent Secretary and Minister in the area of Agricultural and Food Strategy." The specific functions of the PD within the framework of this strategy are stated as follows: (a) To provide planning and evaluation of individual project proposals; (b) To liaise with foreign donors, agencies and other Government ministries and parastatals; (c) To perform economic and statistical analyses and other special studies within the agricultural sector such as commodity pricing studies, supply and demand projections of agricultural commodities and inputs; (d) To coordinate MAWD-wide activities such as budget submission, annual reports, etc. 5.3 In order to perform the above functions an organizational structure consisting of six functional sections has been proposed by MAWD 9/ and is being partly implemented: Technical Assistance, Project Planning and Evaluation, Regional Development, Marketing, Sectoral Planning and Agricultural Statistics. The terms of reference (job description) of each section as defined by MAWD are contained in Annex 1 and are described briefly below. 8/ This memorandum is considered "provisional" because its proposals had not been officially accepted by MAWD, although the PD was more or less organized and functioning on the basis of its proposals by the time this study was undertaken, except for the creation of the posts of "principal economists". 9/ See Annex I for existing organogram and Annex II for proposed organogram and job descriptions.  -7- Technical Assistance Sect:ion (TA) 5.4 This section is currently manned by one very well experienced professional who is assisted by two technical assistants. The major functions of this section are: (a) liaison with foreign donors including negotiations, meeting aid donor missions, etc. (b) preparation. of annual project/program reviews and reports on foreign assistance (e.g., joint project reviews with SIDA). 5.5 The tasks falling under this section are of ad hoc and non-continuous nature, and may not readily render themselves to programming. There is, therefore, no work program for this section and the section is virtually a one-man show. The incumbent staff is due for retirement before the end of this year and his replacement would soon become due. However, so far no providion for training his successor appears to have been made. 10/ Project Planning and Evaluation (PPE) 5.6 At present, this section has a strength of eight staff, of which four are Zambians and the other four are expatriates. Two of the Zambian staff will leave soon for graduate training in foreign countries. The section has two functional units: The Commodity Development Projects Unit and the Programs Unit. The overall responsibilities of the section include: (a) Developing commodity-specific projects (e.g., dairy, livestock, cotton projects) involving identification, preparation, appraisal, -monitoring and evaluation - this is done by the Commodity Development Projects Unit. (b) Coordinating the preparation and submission of MAWD capital budgets as well as monitoring such budgets. (c) Approving capital budgets of parastatals and cooperative unions before submission to the NCDP (d) Evaluating subsidy requests of parastatals, cooperative unions and state farms. 5.7 Functions (ii) through (iv) are done by the Programs Unit within the PPE. It is also evident that these latter PPE functions are of a recurring and operating nature. The PPE does not currently coordinate or evaluate the recurrent budgets of MAWD nor does it perform financial evaluation of parastatals, cooperative unions and state farms. The PPE does not have a well-defined work program to translate the above terms of 10/ Subsequent discussions with the DP revealed that the incumbent staff has now retired and that a young graduate, who had been attached to the Section since January, 1980, has now taken charge of this Section.  -8- reference into an action plan with clear targets, priorities and deadlines, but this is substituted for, in part, by regular sectional meetings on a fortnightly basis to coordinate tasks currently in hand. There does not appear to be much subject matter specialization within the Programs Unit. Regional Development Section (RDS) 5.8 The present strength of the RDS is five, of which four are Zambians and one expatriate (SIDA). Two of the local staff will soon leave for overseas training. This section has the following terms of reference: (a) Development of regional or area-based projects (including Bank/IDA/IFAD supported agricultural projects, Integrated Rural Development Projects - IRDP - supported by UK, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Germany) with specific tasks for identification, preparation, appraisal, monitoring and evaluation; (b) Preparation of budgets for area-based projects; and (c) Coordination of overall strategy and policy for area projects. 5.9 The RDS' functions at present are largely of lasting and operating nature and can easily be programmed. The section has not so far attempted to evaluate the efficiency and relevance of the two major rural development approaches (i.e., the Bank-IFAD approach and IRDP approach) to Zambian needs and problems. 11/ The RDS, unlike most other sections in the Division, does not have detailed written terms of reference and it also has no work program. Marketing Section (MS) 5.10 The present strength of the MS is six economists, two of whom are expatriates (CIDA) and FAO. This section has detailed and well-documented terms of reference which include the following: (a) Agricultural commodity reviews and studies; (b) Collection and dissemination of market information; (c) Determination and review of production costs of agricultural products; (d) Agricultural commodity price reviews and policy recommendations; (e) Liaison with agricultural parastatals and cooperative unions; (f) Preparation of marketing subsidy budgets; 11/ Subsequent discussions with the DP revealed that work on evaluating the IRDP is currently in progress.  -9- (g) Review of agricultural credit; (h) Review of agricultural input requirements; (i) Review of marketing costs and policies for food grains; (j) Coordination of implementation of national food security policy; and (k) Crop forecast, storage and transport. 5.11 The MS appears t:o have no written work program, although most of its tasks follow an annua.L cycle. Like all other sections in the Division, the MS has no formalized procedures for monitoring individual staff's tasks nor for providing feedback: to the Director of Planning. Individual staff members do not have specific commodity responsibilities. Sectoral Policy Analysis Section (SPA) 5.12 The present strength of the SPA is four economists, of whom three are Zambians and one expatriate (CIDA); two of the Zambian staff will soon be leaving for overseas training to MS level. The SPA has well-thought-out and documented terms of reference which have been translated into an ambitious work program with specific targets and deadlines. The terms of reference include the following: (a) Analysis of agricultural sector performance; (b) Formulation and analysis of sectoral development strategy; (c) Supply and demand analysis of agricultural products and inputs and credit; (d) Identification of critical issues (areas) and constraints in agricultural development; (e) Food sector strategy development; (f) Preparation of sectoral annual plan and report; (g) Construction of analytical models; and (h) Liaison withl NCDP, Ministry of Finance and other institutions. 5.13 SPA has a well-thought-out work program with specific targets and work assignments. However, given the small size of the section, the work plan (Annex 8) is, perhaps, overly ambitious and to some extent lacking in clearly established priorities. It remains to the credit of the SPPA that it is the only section in the entire Planning Division (PD) with both  - 10 - clearly stated terms of reference and an operational work program; and because of this the section has more to show in terms of productive results (e.g., policy papers, etc.) than any other section in the Division. Agricultural Statistics Section (ASS) 5.14 The ASS is a one-man shop run by an expatriate statistician assisted by six non-professional Zambians. A Zambian statistician has recently been posted to the section to strengthen it. The section has no laid down work program but its terms of reference include: (a) Collection and analysis of agricultural statistics (annual); (b) Pre-harvest crop forecasts (annual); (c) Survey of agricultural credit (annual); (d) Planning and organizing specialized agricultural surveys; and (e) Liaison with the Central Statistical Office (CSO). 5.15 The ASS is currently seriously understaffed. As a result the publication of agricultural statistics has only just re-commenced after a hiatus of six years. 5.16 The ASS serves to assemble and publish agricultural statistics collected, and often published, elsewhere in Government. It does not currently generate primary data, or exercise a quality control function on agricultural data. Overall Staff Strength 5.17 Staff strength and training are summarized in Table 1 above. Out of a total of thirty-two positions filled, 12/ seven staff are away on training and another five staff are due to go on training later this year. Of the nine expatriates on board, six positions are staffed by CIDA, SIDA, or FAO, three positions are filled on contract basis; four positions are vacant. Of the thirty-four positions listed in Table 1, twenty-nine are established positions, with the remaining six being supernumerary posts created to accommodate the staff supplied under technical assistance. Of the 29 established posts, only ten are filled by Zambians who will be in post in the Division through December 1982. Of these ten only five have been in the Planning Division more than a year. This highlights the high rate of staff turnover in the PD. 12/ Plus SIDA supplied manpower planner.  - 11 - ZAMBIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT ASSESSMENT OF THE PLANNING DIVISION Table 1: Staff Allocation in Planning Division (April, 1982)* Positions Filled Established Total Local Expatriate Section Positions Staff Staff Staff Vacant PD 2 1 1 - 1 TA 1 1 - 1 - PPE 7 7 3 4 - RDS 6 5 4 1 1 MS 6 6 5 1 - SPPA 4 4 3 1 - ASS 3 1 - 1 2 Total 29 25 16 9 4 Staff-on-Training 7 7 - Total 32 23 9 Total Establishment 34 - * However the Establishment Register for 1982 gives 21 established positions in the Planning Division plus 36 non-established posts for RIDP staff, funded externally. Source: Establishment Register, 1981 5.18 The principle reason for this high staff turnover is the attractive alternative employment opportunities open to M.Ag.Ec. staff on their return. These men have often had three years full time study on top of a B.A. (Econ.) and a brief period of work in the PD. This makes them much stronger candidates for responsible posts than they were when they joined the PD, yet unless they are appointed Section Head, which might be premature, they return to the same level at which they joined the Division. One alternative would be for the PD to require a longer period of service prior to graduaite training, but this would not yield the well-trained staff they need and might, in any case, make recruitment more difficult. Another possibility would be to require a specified period of service (say two years) in the PD after overseas for each year of training in return for government, nomination and support for a master or Ph.D. program. 13/ 13/ Although there is a general bonding regulation at present, it does not prevent inter-ministerial transfers or secondment to parastatals and its enforcement is reportedly lax largely because it is difficult to keep track of staff after several inter-ministerial transfers or secondment to parastatals.  - 12 - 5.19 Another reason for the high turnover is the very short career path within the PD. Even a Section Head can see he is one of six who can aspire to be the next Deputy Director and after that Director. Staff who are not yet Section Heads feel that there is little chance of a post as Section Head becoming available. B. Management Procedures 6.1 Each section of the PD is headed by a senior economist. Four of the section heads are Zambians, with a minimum of a three-year work experience. The section heads are responsible to the DP. On the basis of our observations and interviews with the PD staff, it appears that there are no established or standing procedures for internally coordinating, reviewing and controlling the work or targets of individual sections and staff. Only in the PPE are staff meetings held on a regular basis. Elsewhere staff meetings at divisional or section level are rare and when they occur, they are convened on an ad hoc basis. Each section and sometimes, individual staff determine their own work program on the basis of their own perceived objectives and priorities and simply clear these with their immediate supervisors. Section work programs (where and if they exist) once agreed upon are not subject to regular or periodic reviews and control. Individual assignments are not routinely monitored by section heads. Coordination amongst sections is virtually absent, so that one section hardly knows what the rest of sections in the PD are doing at any given time. 6.2 It was evident from our observations and interviews with the staff that the lack of well-defined work programs at section and individual staff level and the virtual lack of internal coordination, review and control mechanisms has fostered a situation in which sectional staff do not have clearly delegated responsibilities with adverse effects on motivation, accountability and professional growth. 6.3 The lack of a well-defined work program in most sections and the preponderance of ad hoc assignments on a day-to-day basis have inhibited the development of delegation of authority to sections by the DP and to individual staff by section heads. It is, therefore, not surprising that the DP and, to a lesser extent, the section heads bear the brunt of heavier tasks, while the rest of the staff have very little and, at times have practically nothing to do. This implies the overuse of fairly senior staff time for tasks which could readily and competently be performed by junior staff, 14/ Moreover, increased delegation and clearer definition .of responsibilities would increase the job satisfaction of junior staff. 14/ For instance, the mission observed that too much time of the DP was spend on meeting visitors to the Ministry, when in fact most of such visitors should have been met by a relevant section head or a junior staff in section.  - 13 - 6.4 There is very little "open" documentation of the work done in the PD. Much of the work of a routine nature is traditionally produced and filed and so are most studies. There is no system for "public" (i.e., dissemination to other staff within and outside PD) documentation of the Division's work relating to recurring or special studies such as price reviews, and commodity studies. In a situation of high staff turnover as exists in Zambia in general and in the PD in particular, there is a need for establishing a system whereby much of the Division's work would be documented for both internal and (where desirable) public communication. To know that studies would be made available to other people within and outside the Division, would also motivate staff to set high standards for their work. It would also provide a handy reference material for outsiders, especially aid donors and academicians, seeking information on the agricultural sector. Staff Meeting 6.5 The virtual absence of staff meetings at divisional and section levels creates a gap in internal communication. There is no provision for formal meetings between the PS and divisional staff (say, the DP and section heads), nor for meetings between the DP and section staff. The lack of such meetings suggests that there is no open forum for exchanging views about developments on work performance by various sections and individual staff. The introduction of institutionalized management meetings would thus bridge the internal communication gap and would constitute a forum for exchanging views about developments and shifts in priorities or emphases within and between work programs, and for encouraging flexibility among the DP and section heads. Such management meetings would also ensure that staff are fully briefed about the range of activities within the PD, thus reducing the noted imperfections in the flow of information throughout the divisional hierarchy. Section Work Programs 6.6 The practice of establishing operational work programs at section level is very limited. Although the SPPA work program (Annex 8) is quite explicit on the nature or scope of studies to be carried out, targets and deadlines, it has one impo-rtant shortcoming. Although the program attempts to relate the program activities with the general terms of reference for the section, it does not state the general objectives of doing all the activities included in its program or assign priorities among its many assigned tasks. The terms of reference simply represent statements on activities to be done and which are reproduced in the work program as 'activities'. For instance, there is no mention as to why the SPA wants to (a) analyze agricultural sector performance, (b) review past work on supply and demand projections, (cS) study groundnuts sector and prices, etc. In order for the work program to become an effective managment technique for improved institutional and staff performance in the PD and to provide a yardstick for gauging such performance, the general objectives of PD must be stated in process-oriented, rather than results-oriented terms that are controllable. For instance, the objectives for carrying out the program  - 14 - activities mentioned earlier in this paragraph by the SPA could be (a) "in about three years' time, the PD expects to have full knowledge of the performance of the agricultural sector by commodity and the factors constraining such performance", (b) "in order for the PD to be able to formulate a long-term agricultural development strategy for inclusion in the next national Five Year Development Plan (1984-1988), it is planned to have adequate knowledge about (i) commodity or subsector performance, potential and constraints; (ii) alternative agricultural development strategies (approaches) currently being tried in the country; and (iii) key policy issues relating to food security versus cash crops and import substitution versus export promotion in the agricultural sector". 6.7 Such work program objectives should be generally stated as divisional rather than section objectives so that they would provide a sense of direction to the various sections. It should be the responsibility of the sections to relate their specific work program activities to such overall divisional objectives. In other words, section work programs should be expected to reflect the overall divisional objectives which would, at the same time, provide the standards for assessing the adequacy of the section work programs in terms of its formulation and actual performance. Such work programs would also provide a management tool for delegating authority and tasks, establishing clear and realistic work expectations, monitoring progress of teamwork and individual performance and for fostering internal coordination, cooperation and accountability among section staff. Responsibility Overlap and Lapses 6.8 Largely as a result of inadequate internal coordination and lack of clearly defined work program at section level, there appears to be some overlap in the activities or tasks among some sections in the PD. For instance, the following functions were found to be shared as shown: (a) Crop forecasting - shared between ASS and MS; (b) Supply and demand analysis for commodities - shared between MS and SPA; (c) Evaluation of subsidy submissions of marketing parastatals and cooperatives - shared between MS and PPE; and (d) Commodity or-subsector studies - shared among MS, PPE and SPA. 6.9 The overlap in some instances may be more apparent than real, since there is no distinction between short-run and quick studies and medium or long-term studies. Thus, while the MS might be interested in short-run and annual reviews of commodity supply and demand analysis, the SPA would focus on long-term supply and demand analysis of similar commodities. This distinction ought to be spelled out in the definition of section objectives and functions.  - 15 - 6.10 Where the overlap in responsibilites is real, it represents duplication of tasks and Et waste of staff time. In order to avoid such overlap, it would be necessary to organize the sections in the division in such a manner that only specifically designated sections focus on lasting tasks or studies of strategic importance for achieving sectoral objectives. This would enable a separation of minor tasks and tasks of operating nature from longer term assignments. Assignment overlaps among staff is also common. It is not uncommon for 2 or 3 staff to be asked independently (and presumably for slightly far different purposes) to write papers on the same subject or issue. 6.11 A comparison between the written terms of reference and what the different sections actually do revealed that there is a number of omissions. For instance, the following functions currently carried out do not appear in any of the written terms of reference of sections: (a) Processing recruitment of staff for projects (e.g., consultants for area-based and IRDP projects) by RDS; (b) Processing and coordination of startup activities for projects before they become effective (e.g., drafting subsidiary loan agreements, administration of tenders, etc.,) by RDS; (c) Review of livestock development policy by PPE; (d) Annual price reviews and recommendations for livestock products by PPE; (e) Project preparation (e.g., feasibility studies and pilot marketing studies) by MS. 6.12 Similarly, a close look at some of the available section terms of reference indicates some lapses. A number of important tasks mentioned in the overall objectives of the division were missing. For instance, the following were noted: (a) Farm management data, which would be critical in the formulation of policy relating to producer pricing and adoption of technical packages (production), is currently not being handled by any section in the PD. Ideally, the ASS or a separate section should be responsible for compilation and analysis of farm management data and for liaising with the Adaptive Research Planning Teams (ARPT) of the Agricultural Research Division in the Department of Agriculture to ensure that the ARPT findings are incorporated into the agricultural planning process. (b) Institution of a unified budgeting system which relates the recurrent budgets of MAWD's departments to their capital budgets by the PPE is still lacking. This should be done in future.  - 16 - (c) Performance evaluation of agricultural parastatals, state farms and cooperative unions should be done in future, with the view to monitor their performance and to provide operational advice to them. (d) Overall review of the imported inputs requirements of the sector. (e) An overall view of subsidies to agricultural sector and financial performance of agricultural parastatals, cooperatives and state farms. C. Constraints 7.1 The PD faces a number of constraints which have tended to adversely affect its effectiveness and productivity. Most of the constraints are outside the control of MAWD and the PD as they are externally imposed, but some are self-imposed. The external constraints are mentioned in this report to make the point that they circumscribe the scope of what MAWD and the PD can do in their quest for a more effective and responsive institution. Constraints are generally imposed by the public service regulations governing staff establishment, incentives (e.g., promotion and salaries), staff recruitment and rotation. Other constraints on PD's performance consist of the overall demand and supply for human and financial resources in the country - both of which are very scarce. 15/ It is against these overall constraints that improvement in PD's performance has to be sought. However, within these general regulations and macro constraints, Government ministries and departments are permitted to adopt standard routines and operating procedures by which they can accomplish tasks and achieve internal coordination. Thus, the performance of PD can be viewed largely as a product of these routines and procedures. And any reform to improve its performance must start with the changing of these standard decision-making and operational routines. Public Service Constraints 7.2 The general public service regulations are such that MAWD (including the PD) has virtually no control over the recruitment, rotation (transfer), incentives and establishment (staff strength) of the staff working within it, as these are the prerogatives of the Public Service Commission and the Personnel Division in the Office of the Prime Minister. For instance, staff appointments, dismissal and promotions are made by the Public Service Commission, while staff rotation between Ministries and the determination of staff incentives and establishment are prerogatives of the Personnel Division. The PS of MAWD can only make recommendations on these matters, but he has to cope with the competence, morale and effectiveness or lack of these among the staff in his Ministry. As a result MAWD has 15/ As mentioned elsewhere the PD, through its graduate training policy, is making a major contribution within its own area of authority, in relieving the shortage of well-trained agricultural economists.  - 17 - virtually no control over the turnover of staff. This is manifest in the lack of continuity in the leadership of the DP whose heads have been changed six times since 1972. Similarly, the financial resources available for the operations of the PD have been very limited. At 1980 prices, the operating (non-salary) expenditures of the PD declined from K 0.8 million (US$1 million) in 1975 to K 0.3 million (US$ 0.4 million) in 1981. In terms of the relation between operating expenditures and salary expenditures, the ratio declined from 1.1 in 1975 to only 0.4 in 1981, indicating that the PD staff have been increasingly starved of the materials and services to work with. This generally applies to other MAWD departments, and possibly, all government agencies in the country. This has a direct effect on staff morale and one of the most frequently cited problems by the staff was the inadequacy of funds or materials (supplies and hardware) and transport with which they have to contend. 7.3 Despite the degree to which staffing, turn-over and recurrent budget for the PD are outside MAWD's control, high priority should be given to conveying to the Public Service Commission and Personnel Division, the crucial role of the PD, its need for a stable staff including a number of well-trained and experienced economists. The PD definitely needs additional staff and more senior positions now, if it is to be able to dispense with technical assistance in the long run. 7.4 SIDA has been very helpful in supplying the PD with recurrent resources. Vital though this has been in the short run, MAWD needs to impress upon Treasury that this type of assistance should not have to be relied on in the long run. Staff Constraints and Staff Quality 7.5 The majority of the Zambian staff below section head level are fresh economics graduates from UNZA with little or no job experience, so they have neither advanced training nor substantial experience. This should be a matter of very grave concern to the Government since the PD is responsible for advising top decision makers in operating departments and the parastatals who are responsible for the nation's agricultural development. The extent of this lack of experience is evident from Table 2. The job of designing operational policy and providing policy advice presumes that staff doing such jobs have had successful operating experience. Less than 10 percent of the present local staff in the PD would meet this criterion. For the majority of the local staff, the PD represents their first appointment within the Public Service. Over 90 percent of the local staff in the PD lack operating experience and this, perhaps, explains the difficulties the Division currently faces in designing suitable operational policies and in providing effective policy advice. This lack of operational experience by most of the PD's staff has also tended to create a credibility gap between the operating departments of MAWD and the PD, which is looked on as a bastion of inexperienced and theoretical economists. The most asked question about the PD by the operating staff within MAWD departments is "What do you do there?" This implies a non-recognition by the operating departments - a thing that virtually renders the PD ineffective and tarnishes its image within the  - 18 - Ministry. Since experienced staff with successful performance in operating jobs are scarce in Zambia, it would be unrealistic to make a general requirement that successful performance in operating jobs within the public and parastatal sectors be a prerequisite for joining the PD. However, it would be practical to require that heads of sections be senior economists with successful operating experience in either the public service or parastatal sector. This requirement should be reinforced with another condition which would stipulate that expatriate staff hired to work in the PD should have had successful operating or advisory experience for not less than five years after professional graduation, with some required to have at least ten years' experience and a Ph.D. so that they can provide on-the-job training to inexperienced and less qualified Zambian staff. ZAMBIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT ASSESSMENT OF THE PLANNING DIVISION Table 2: Job Experience 1/ of Local PD Staff Less than 3 years 3-5 Year Over 5 Years Section Job Experience Job Experience Job Experience DP 1 TA - 1 PPE 2 1 - RDS 2 2 - MS 3 - 1 SPA 1 1 1 ASS On Training 4 2 1 Total 12 6 5 1/ Job experience after professional graduation Source: MAWD Manpower Development Planning Section 7.6 The problem of staff quality in the PD, in terms of professional competence as judged by academic qualifications, is less serious. As indicated in Table 3, almost 95 percent of the incumbent staff possess minimum professional qualifications (BA or BS degree in general economics),  - 19 - while 47 percent have a second degree. The only Ph.D. staff is an expatriate on a short-term tour. There is an active training program which is currently pursued by the Ministry's Manpower Development Section and is aimed at having all staff in the PD trained to MS level by the end of 1987. However, it is recognized that the retention of these staff within the PD will pose a serious problem in future, unless improvements are made in the Division's scheme of service which at present provides for a limited career development to the post of senior economist after three years of satisfactory service in the Public Service. Further improvement in professional competence could be ensured by requiring that expatriate staff hired to work in the PD should, at least, hold an MS degree in agricultural economics, but preferably a Ph.D. in economics. ZAMBIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT ASSESS1MENT OF THE PLANNING DIVISION Table 3: Professional Qualification of Local PD Staff Section Dipl. Ag. BA/BS MA/MS Ph.D. DP - 1 TA PPE 2 1 RDS 1 -3 - MS 5 - SPA 2 1 ASS On Training 11 - 7 Total 1 12 10 1/ Expected level after graduation 7.7 The current training policy seems to restrict training opportunities of staff to MS degree level, this should be expanded to include a Ph.D. stream, taking into consideration the requirements for impeccable professional competency and integrity of staff who have to man senior and sensitive posts in the PD.  - 20 - 7.8 Formal, post-graduate training for its staff is one factor largely under the control of the PD. In this area very strenuous efforts are being made to upgrade staff quality with almost one-third of the Zambian staff being away on post-graduate training, at any one time. This investment creates a number of short-term problems for the PD, and justifies major technical assistance and support, pending the time when staff return and can be retained. 7.9 As this training effort bears fruit, it will be necessary to face the question as to whether it is realistic to expect to retain staff with a second degree for long periods at less than the senior economist level. Staff Deployment 7.10 In general, the deployment of staff in the PD appears satisfactory in terms of staff distribution among sections on the basis of workload. However, much improvement in staff deployment could be achieved by paying more attention to equitable distribution of staff on the basis of professional qualification and job experience. As indicated in Tables 2 and 3, the distribution of staff among sections on the basis of these criteria is somewhat unsatisfactory. A disproportionately large number of the most experienced local staff are concentrated in two sections: the MS and SPA, while 88 percent of the most highly trained staff is concentrated in the PPE and SPA, with the former accounting for 63 percent of the local staff holding graduate degrees. On the basis of both criteria, the most favored sections are again the PPE and SPPA, while the RDS and ASS have neither highly trained nor well-experienced staff. Attention should be given to strengthening the calibre of the staff in these latter sections as the opportunity arises. 7.11 Another aspect of staff deployment is the kind of training specialization being undertaken by staff currently being trained or likely to be on training in the near future. It is not obvious whether staff on training are being specifically encouraged or even requested to pursue training programs which would have immediate relevance to their jobs in the PD. If this is not happening already, it should be encouraged in future in order to avoid having a disproportionately large number of staff specializing in one specific area. Areas which would appear to require immediate attention are: agricultural production economics and farm management, agricultural marketing, price policy, livestock, dairy economics and agribusiness, irrigation economics, economics of public choice (institutional economics) and public finance. It would be sensible to require staff to discuss or clear their thesis topic with the relevant section head and DP. Hardware Constraints 7.12 SIDA has been very supportive of the PD, providing both vehicles, recurrent supplies and travel expenses. It has thus largely protected the PD from the worst of the recurrent resources "crunch" which has adversely affected many other portions of the public sector. This improves the work of the Division, both directly and indirectly via staff morale.  - 21 - Despite this very valuable SIDA support, some hardware problems remain. In particular, staff effectiveness is still hampered by: (a) An unreliable and slow telephone system (this seems to relate to Mulungushi House's connection to the main telephone system, rather than being inherent in Lusaka's telephone system). (b) Lack of a good and reliable copier. (c) Lack of a microcomputer. (d) Shortage of professional Journals, and (e) Some continued stringency with respect to supplies. 7.13 The microcomputer represents a rather special problem since there is little, if any, "felt need" for a micro among the PD staff. However, this is more a reflection on the staff not having had access to a microcomputer, than that there is indeed no need first. If the PD waits until it has a demonstrated need for a microcomputer, it will never buy one. 7.14 The USAID proposal envisages a substantial investment (circa $150,000) in a mini-computer. While this would be a very useful aid to the PD it should not be seen as a substitute for a microcomputer. A mini-computer will require some minimal operating staff and a "gap" between the analyst and actual data analysis. A microcomputer is much more like a typewriter. Anyone can sit: down at it (if they know how to type and/or have been exposed to the software they wish to use), and while they are sitting at the microcomputer it is dedicated to them and proceeds as fast or slowly as the user wishes. It is important to recognize the microcomputer and the mini-computer as complementary, not alternative, approaches to enhancing the PD's quantitative analytical capacity. 7.15 CIDA has subscribed to a number of professional Journals 16/ on behalf of the PD, but these do not seem to be effectively circulated among the staff. Similarly, there is a major job to be done in indexing the library collection and files maintained by individual sections. Documentation Constraint 7.16 The most telling comment on the PD's work program is how hard it is to comment on due to lack of published material on which a judgement can be made. This, in turn, adversely affects the ability of current staff members to benefit from work done by their predecessors. This is the most urgent need of the PD to properly document and preserve a record of work, as it is completed. Such documentation would: 16/ Given the paucity of international news in Zambia, it would be useful to include one or more weekly news reviews such as The Economist and/or the Manchester Guardian Weekly.  - 22 - (a) Help delineate the PD's area of expertise, so that government, donors and academicians and commercial farmers would begin to look to the PD to provide the basic data and analysis on agricultural development, (b) Ensure that when new studies are requested, staff could pick up where the last study left off, (c) Help demonstrate to new staff the types of analysis carried out in the PD, thus cutting down their learning time and helping to cope with the problem of high staff turnover, (d) Minimise the time spent bringing outsiders up to date with PD studies, and (e) Often provide solid background data to facilitate a prompt response to queries from the Permanent Secretary or Minister. D. Work Program 7.17 A second comment is that while a number of interesting and useful studies are underway within the PD (Annex 8), there is no clear policy framework into which these studies can be seen to fit. The closest thing to such a policy framework is probably the Food Strategy Study carried out by the Dutch. Only Annexes of the Study are available at this writing, so that the substance of its findings are still unknown. It is ironic that such a study, which is crucial to Zambia's overall agricultural policy perspective, was carried out by expatriates in more or less of a consultant role, since ideally the strategy should focus strongly on the Zambian perspective on the sector's development potential and Zambian preferences of the ways development should be brought about. Given the various constraints already reviewed, it is understandable and was probably realistic for the management of the PD to decide that such a major strategy review could not be fitted into the Division's work program, but this only emphasizes the need for some reorientation of the Division's work and some expansion of the resources available to it. 7.18 When the full food strategy report becomes available, it will be interesting to compare it with the treatment of agriculture in the Plan documents. The current heavy emphasis on investment in State Farms, even when only pre-feasibility studies have been carried out, needs to be balanced by allocations of the foreign exchange and investment resources needed to maintain and expand the commercial and traditional sector. Articulating a proper balance between sectors and documenting the resources and incentives each requires to assure expansion, would appear desirable and to need some reorientation of the Division's work. 7.19 Wihile it is relatively easy to identify areas where the PD's work program needs to be expanded, it is much more difficult to identify studies which could profitably be left out. It is to be hoped that some increase in productivity would follow from the managerial and resource changes recommended in the next section of this report, but it is hard to escape the basic conclusion that the needed additions to the PD's work load will necessitate additional resources.  - 23 - III. PROPOSALS TO INCREASE PLANNING DIVISION EFFECTIVENESS A. Objective of Proposals 8.1 In view of the constraints and shortcomings identified in the preceeding paragraphs of this report and the need for improved performance of the PD to meet its increased responsibilites, the following sections will dwell on a number of proposals some of which have been alluded to above. The main objectives of these proposals can be stated as follows. With respect to management and organization: (a) to create an environment in which more staff motivation, accountability, job satisfaction and initiative could be fostered to lead to improved and, hence, effective project planning implementation and coordination as well as policy formulation within the agricultural sector; (b) to introduce management techniques which, without prejudice to general public service regulations, would ensure effective planning, control and review of responsibilities, tasks and targets; (c) to reduce overlap and omissions in responsibilities among sectors; (d) to provide staffing levels which will help reduce the problem of staff turnover; and (e) to provide the hardware support necessary to make the professionaL staff fully productive. With respect to the content: of the work program: (f) to increase the proportion of the Division's work which is adequately documented and, possibly, published; (g) to increase the emphasis on studies which will assemble data on costs, procurement levels, sales, international trade, subsidies/taxes, etc., for particular commodities; and (h) to reorient the program so as to show how agriculture may become a major contributor to the balance of payments. 8.2 Thus, the objectives behind the proposals made are modest and practical. The proposals do not provide magic formulae to known problems of the PD, and, indeed, their effectiveness on the PD performance would be dependent on the actual implementation of the proposals by both the PS and DP within MAWD, and the extent to which the proposed reorientation of the work program is accepted. Periodic review of the implementation of these proposals, to assess progress being made, is considered critical to improved performance. In particular the questions: Are our resources adequate? And, is the foundation for an export oriented agriculture being laid? have to be asked repeatedly.  - 24 - B. Proposals 8.3 The proposals made in this report include some redefinition or refinement of divisional and sectional objective, some reallocation of responsibilities between sections, staffing changes, more structured managerial procedures, some additional hardware and tentative additions to the work program. These proposals have been cleared with MAWD in principle and in this sense represent an agreed work program for the Division. Some suggestions could be implemented immediately, while others might be accepted for implementation over a long time horizon while refraining from action in the short term. More important than the specifics and timing of individual changes, is the need to make the work of the PD more visible, and to reorient it to advise government on the policies needed to maximize agriculture's contribution to the economy and balance of payments. If this latter fundamental question is not agreed to be part of the PD's agenda, the question would arise: Who then is responsible for providing the government with this policy advice? In view of the high demand for professional competence and experience the proposed program imposes on the PD which is currently inadequately staffed, agreement has been tentatively reached in principle with the PS, MAWD, that some of the studies included in the Division's work program be undertaken as joint undertakings between PD and the Bank. The studies proposed for joint undertaking are marked as "(PD/IBRD)" in Annex 6. This approach will not only provide technical assistance to Zambia in an operational context, but will above all provide a suitable training ground for some of the inexperienced Zambian staff in the PD to accomplish their regular work assignments with the assistance and guidance from experienced Bank staff. It should also provide an opportunity to Zambian staff to sensitize Bank staff to certain subtle policy issues which might otherwise be taken for granted by non-Zambian Bank staff or consultants. It may not be possible for the Bank to use its own staff for every study identified for joint undertaking, in which case the Bank would either reduce its input or hire consultants with the requisite qualifications and experience to undertake such studies with PD staff. The PD would have ultimate responsibility for the reports produced and recommendations made in each joint study. Divisional Objectives and Responsibilities 8.4 The major agricultural objectives of the TNDP have been summarized: "(iv) To give the highest priority to rural development in order to create a strong rural economy with major emphasis on: (a) expansion of the production base of the agricul- ture sector, not only attaining self-sufficiency but also for promoting exports;  - 25 - (f) adoption of investment and production programs and creation of credit, marketing and extension f-acilities which will benefit directly subsistence producers and small scale farmers. (vii) To recduce the disparities in the levels of income between rural and urban sectors through the adoption of appropriate investment, fiscal and income policies. 17/ 8.5 Given the above overall long-term sectoral objectives of increased food and agricultural production, rural employment and incomes, and promotion of agricultural exports, the medium-to-long-term objectives of the PD can be stated in. process-oriented terms that are operational and controllable. Thus, the overall long-term objective of the PD can be stated as: To facilitate the achievement of the sectoral objectives in the long-run through (a) generation and provision of knowledge to agencies and people managing agricultural development in the country; (b) formulation of policy guidelines; and (c) design of a long-term development strategy for coordinating the planning and implementation of investment projects and programs within the agricultural sector. 8.6 In order to achieve this overall objective, the PD will require knowledge generated by the following process: (a) a description and analysis of the structure of agricultural production in the country; (b) review and evaluation of comparative advantage of various agricultural and food commodities, by subsectors and region in the country; (c) an analysis and evaluation of alternative public investments and development strategies and their implications for the agricultural sector; (d) a description and evaluation of agricultural research and extension in the country; (e) a description and evaluation of agricultural marketing, pricing, credit, input supply and agricultural transportat:ion (including the informal market); (f) a study of the imported input requirements of agriculture by commodity and sector; 17/ TNDP, Government Printer, Lusaka, 1979, page 22.  - 26 - (g) a study of the incentive structure of agriculture and how this might be improved; (h) a study of land tenure (including state farms) and its effect on production decisions and productivity; (i) a description of the cost structure and marketing margins for the marketing parastatals; (j) a description and evaluation of the different types of donor sponsored development projects in the agricultural sector. 8.7 Thus, the principal objective of the PD in the next five years (1982/83 - 1986/87) should be to acquire full descriptive and analytical knowledge of the agricultural sector in the country through the studies described in para. 8.6. Since it would not be practical for the PD to generate the knowledge required for the purposes stated in para. 8.5 above at once, it is suggested that PD's medium term work program concentrate on generating descriptive knowledge which would eventually form the basis for generating analytical knowledge. However, in some cases especially for the purpose of policy prescription, such as the PD's contribution to NDP IV, it should be both practical and necessary to generate descriptive and analytical knowledge in the same process. It is therefore proposed that the PD increase the allocation of resources for the generation of descriptive information in the next three years, so as to improve the factual basis for its policy advice. 8.8 The processes stated in para. 8.6 also constitute the major responsibilities of the PD. The standards for gauging the PD's future performance would be the extent to which the PD would be capable of (a) generating and providing knowledge for managing agricultural development, (b) providing operational policy guidelines, (c) designing an operational strategy, (d) advising on the development and recurrent budget, and (e) implementing a productive portfolio of donor sponsored projects - all of which would lead to achievement of the long-term sectoral objectives. The processes stated in para. 8.6 can also be used as criteria for ranking the sectional activities on the basis of their respective contribution to either descriptive and/or analytical knowledge (see also para. 8.35). 8.9 As mentioned earlier, MAWD has proposed a provisional reorganization of the which has not been officially accepted but seeks to create two positions of Principal Economist under the Chief Economist (see Annex 2). 18/ The need to reduce the span of control of the Chief Economist in the present structure, Annex 1, is readily acknowledged and the split between budget and projects versus marketing and sectoral issues 18/ Another, yet unofficial, proposal for restructuring the PD submitted to the ongoing Committee of Inquiry into the Conditions and Restructuring of the Civil Service by the DP calls for the establishment of two "principal economist" and several "junior economist" posts as an entry grade for fresh University graduates.  - 27 - also makes sense. However, with this split in place, the MAWD provisional proposal puts the single chief economist as something of a filter between the Director and managers responsible for projects and sectoral issues. In the mission's view, the flatter structure proposed in Annex 3 would make more sense, with two Principal Economists, each responsible for a major portion of the Division's work. 8.10 The overall divisional work program is the summation of the activities constituting the individual sectional work programs (see Annex 6) and reflects the recommendation for concentrating PD's resources on the generation of descriptive data within the initial three years of the work program. However, it is only prudent to suggest that this work program should be constantly reviewed so that changes, deemed necessary by shifts in policy emphasis, or newly identified problems, can be accommodated. Modification of Sectional Responsibilities 8.11 Our analysis of the existing responsibilities of the PD, and its work program, suggests the need to consolidate/reorganize its responsibilities in three areas: (a) There is a need for the capital and the recurrent budgetsfor MAWD and its parastatals to be considered simultaneously. Currently, only the capital budget is reviewed by the PD. We have suggested that this be added to the responsibilities of the existing Project Planning and Evaluation Section. (b) Despite some technical production expertise, particularly with respect to livestock amongst the project preparation staff, the PD appears to be weak in the area of crop husbandry and production economics. At the very least the PD should be staffed to liaise closely with, and use the expertise of, the Extension and Applied Research Team groups within MAWD. Accordingly, we have expanded the responsibilities of the existing Marketing Section and called it Production and Marketing (P&M). (c) Given Zambia's notorious logistical problems in the procurement of fertilizer and the increasing shortage of foreign exchange, 19/ we believe that input supply should also receive increased attention. This has been added to the duties of the existing Project Planning and Evaluation Section. 20/ 19/ The Times of Zambia, May 11, 1982, quotes Productive Farming as warning that agricultural spares in dealers' inventories were down 45 percent in 1981. 20/ Although the SPA is reported to have done this in the past, it is recommended to put this function under the PPE because of its budgetary implications and its financial implications on parastatals (NAMB, Lintco) and Cooperatives who handle input supply and distribution.  - 28 - 8.12 In the light of the added responsibilities assigned to the Project Planning and Evaluation, together with its already heavy work load, we feel that it would be sensible to concentrate responsibility for preparation and implementation of all Projects in a single section. Accordingly, we propose that the old Regional Development Section add to its responsibilities preparation, implementation and evaluation of all projects. This new section would be renamed the Project Analysis and Implementation Section (PAI). Note that negotiations with donors and achieving project effectiveness would be the responsibility of the Technical Assistance Section. 8.13 At the same time the old Project Planning and Evaluation Section, with increased responsibilities for the recurrent budget and relations with the agricultural parastatals, but stripped of any project responsibilities would be renamed the Budget Analysis Section (BAS). 8.14 Sectional objectives and responsibilities have been restated below to reflect the overall objectives of the division (para. 8.5-8.7), and the suggested expansion and reallocation of responsibilities. These are outlined below for each section. Technical Assistance Section (TA) Objectives 8.15 Within the next three years, the TA aims to have complete and detailed information on foreign assistance and to improve coordination of aid in agriculture and, therefore, intends to have information on the following: (a) the types, terms and conditions, sources and end-use of foreign technical and financial assistance within the agricultural sector since independence; (b) the impact of different forms of technical and financial assistance on departmental resource availability and expenditures in the past and future; and (c) the steps necessary for MAWD and the agricultural sector to reduce and eventually eliminate, its need for technical assistance. Responsibilities 8.16 The TA will be responsible for the following tasks: (a) review and analyze past foreign assistance to agriculture with regard to its type, terms and conditions, source and end-use (subsector). (b) evaluate the appropriateness of technical assistance on the basis of its cost and impact on resource availability and recurrent expenditure;  - 29 - (c) coordinate all technical and financial assistance to the agricultural sector, including negotiations, meetings with donors, preparation of project implementation reviews and draft subsidiary financing agreements; (d) liaise with the Ministry of Finance, NCDP, and of Legal Affairs, project implementation agencies, and aid donors within agriculture; (e) monitor and coordinate project startup activities of all projects including those projects internally or externally financed or technically assisted by aid donors, including preparation of draft tender documents, recruitment of project staff, etc; (f) complete projections of technical assistance needs through the year 2000; and (g) coordination with Manpower Planning and Education to help maximize self-sufficiency in technical manpower. Work Program 8.17 The above object:ives and functions will be achieved by carrying out the activities shown iIn Annex 6 under the TA section. In order to streamline the tasks between this section and the new Project Preparation and Implementation (PPI), some responsibilities have been shifted to TA. These include the preparation of draft subsidiary financing agreements and responsibilities (iv) and (v) in para. 8.16. It should also be noted that the proposed responsibilities and work program for this section entail a change from being a purely operational section to an analysis-oriented section in line with the overall divisional objective for generating knowledge to facilitate policy decisions and management of the agricultural sector. 8.18 The added responsibilities and reorientation towards analytical work would suggest the need for more staff in TA. It is proposed that two staff from former Regional Development Section be transferred to TA for implementation of the proposed work program (Annex 4). Budget Analysis Section (BAS) Objectives 8.19 Within the next five years, the BAS aims to integrate the capital and recurrent budgetary processes for MAWD and its parastatals, to institute an effective monitoring system for parastatal expenditures and to monitor the import requirements and levels for the agricultural sector. This will permit the BAS to advise on budgetary allocations to the sector, on parastatal policy issues, and the adequacy of the foreign exchange allocations to the sector.  - 30- Responsibilities 8.20 The BAS will be responsible for the following tasks: (a) reviewing, evaluating, monitoring and coordinating the annual capital and recurrent budgets of MAWD and all its departments, State farms, agricultural parastatals and agricultural cooperative unions; (b) design and preparation of a five-year rolling plan for capital and recurrent budgets for the agricultural sector for Government, parastatals and cooperatives; (c) evaluation of subsidy contributions to agricultural parastatals and cooperatives; (d) examination of the import requirements of the agricultural sector and advice to the Bank of Zambia and the Foreign Exchange Committee on all aspects of the allocation of foreign exchange to and within the sector; and (e) advice to the DP and PS on all matters related to the above. Work Program 8.21 The above objectives and responsibilities will be achieved through the implementation of the work program proposed in Annex 6 under BAS. Initial priority has been assigned to the new task of evaluating the import requirements of the agricultural sector, this is followed by a careful examination of the efficiency and financial situation of the government institutions in the agricultural sector. The staff of the BAS will need to be strengthened with a fiscal economist and a financial analyst. Preliminary discussions between the PS of MAWD and the bank representative in Zambia explored the possibility of using the existing Technical Assistance Credit (No. 873) for this purpose and agreement has been reached in principle to do so whenever appropriate. Project Analysis and Implementation Section (PAI) Objectives 8.22 Within the next five yers the PAI aims to obtain an overall perspective of the development potential of the agricultural sector and project experience in order to be able to propose and implement projects with a high net benefit to Zambia. Responsibilities 8.23 The PAI will be responsible for the following tasks: (a) identification, preparation, monitoring and control of all agricultural projects;  - 31 - (b) evaluation of projects and preparation of completion reports; and (c) identification of regions and commodities with maximum development potential. Work Program 8.24 The above objectives and responsibilities will be achieved through the implementation of the work program proposed in Annex 6 under the PAI Section. It is not to be expected that the proposed strategy statement for NDP IV would signal a major turn-around in planning for the agricultural sector, but at the very least, it would be helpful if it did put the planned expansion of State farms in perspective of the needed expansion of the Sector as a whole. The provision for a Production Economist in the section reflects the need for the section to liaise with the Extension Division and Adaptive Research Teams in MAWD, so that projects can rapidly capitalize on new production packages as they become available. Production and Marketing Section (P&M) Objectives 8.25 Within the next five years, the P&M Section aims to have detailed knowledge about the structure of the major agricultural commodities or subsectors and agricultural inputs within the agricultural sector, with special reference to their production, marketing and storage arrangements, costs, pricing and short-term supply and demand, for both the formal and informal market, for the purpose of providing policy advice in achieving sectoral objectives. Responsibilities 8.26 P&M will be responsible for the following tasks: (a) analysis of iagricultural and food commodities (subsector) with special reference to production costs, marketing and storage costs, pricing, institutional arrangements for marketing, credit and producer incentives and identification of constrainits; (b) review of short-term supply and demand for food and agricultural commodities, inputs and credit, including their annual forecasts; (c) review and evaluate the performance of the marketing and input supply systems in the country; (d) annual review of cost of production for controlled commodities aLnd make recommendations for floor prices;  - 32 - (e) collection and analysis of farm management data in liaison with ASS and ARPT's; (f) collection of data on informal prices in liaison with ASS; (g) studies of trends in international commodity prices; and (h) studies of retail demand for food. Work Program 8.27 The proposed work program for P&M is shown in Annex 6 and consists of two major short-term studies on commodity (subsector) structural studies; pricing, taxation and subsidies in agriculture which are expected to generate information that would lead to specific policy recommendations on crop or product priorities and pricing subsidy and taxation policy for agriculture. Apart from continual, long lasting studies such as short-term supply and demand analysis for commodities, inputs and credit and their forecasts, the section will also collect and analyze farm mangement data to reinforce its recommendations on annual producer prices. In the past, these have been based on crop budget studies which do not reveal the farm level substitution possibilities between, say crop and livestock enterprises. Strong liaison between the section and ARPT's, ASS and provincial agricultural offices would be particularly important in the collection of farm management data. Sectoral Policy Analysis Section (SPA) Objectives 8.28 In the next five years, the SPA section will aim to have detailed knowledge about the performance of the agricultural sector since independence, in general and of specific important subsectors of agriculture in particular, in order to identify the successes and failures of past policies or development approaches and how these lessons can be incorporated in the designing of a long-term development strategy for agriculture. Responsibilities 8.29 The SPA will specifically be responsible for generating information for designing a long-term development strategy for agriculture and will therefore deal with studies or issues of a strategic and long-term nature. Specifically, the SPA will have the following tasks: (a) review and analysis of agricultural sector performance by subsectors since independence (b) review and analysis of long-term supply and demand for agricultural and food products since independence; (c) long-term projections for agricultural and food products, inputs and credit;  - 33 - (d) agricultural development strategy study, with special reference to issues relating to food security, export promotion, import substitution, smallholder versus state farms versus commercial farming, etc. (e) economic aralysis of agricultural research and extension in Zambian agriculture; (f) annual review of agricultural sector performance; (g) analysis of public sector (Government) interventions in the agricultural sector - their forms and impact; (h) agricultural credit, analysis of past successes and failures and an assessment of future prospects with special reference to small and emergent farmers. (i) provision of sectoral data base with consistency checks to track production, costs and subsidies from producer to consumer. Work Program 8.30 The proposed work program for SPA is given in Annex 6, and contains two major studies, in the short-term, on past performance of the agricultural sector and analysis of past Government interventions in agriculture - both of which are aimed at evaluating the successes and failures of Government policies and programs and at identifying development issues within the sector. In the medium term, four analyses are proposed to address strategic issues which would be critical to the formulation of a long-term development strategy for inclusion in the National Development Plan V in 1988. Provision has been made for SPA to draft a section for NDP IV. Though many of the studies needed for a new focus of agricultural development will not have been completed by June 1983, yet it will be important for MAWD to articulate a new and expansionist strategy for inclusion in the new Plan. In particular, MAWD will need to advise NCDP on the additional resources needed by the sector if food self-sufficiency is to be reliably achieved. The amount of lasting operational tasks has been reduced to a minimum level in order to enable this section to focus on issues of strategic importance within the agricultural sector. It should be noted that, due to shortwage of appropriately experienced and qualified personnel in this section, one senior agricultural economist with appropriate experience in strategic policy analysis would have to be recruited for at least two years to provide the necessary guidance in implementing the Section's work program. Again The Bank has expressed its willingness to finance this post under TA credit No. 873. 21/ 21/ The senior economist provided by CIDA has expressed his reluctance to stay on the job beyond his current tour and it is unknown whether CIDA would be willing and able to provide another person of similar qualification and experience. The USAID planning assistance is unlikely to provide a person with the necessary experience of at least 10 years of strategic and operational policy analysis in a Government ministry or public agency.  -34 - Agricultural Statistics Section (ASS) Objectives 8.31 In addition to maintenance of the existing data series, particularly the Annual Agricultural Statistics Bulletin, the section should attempt to expand the statistical coverage of the sector and improve the quality of agricultural statistics. Responsibilities 8.32 In order to achieve the above objectives the ASS will have the following tasks: (a) Collect price data by region and commodity for the informal market; (b) Collect, import, export, domestic sales and inventory data for the major commodities; (c) Collect data on marketing costs, subsidies and profits of marketing agencies; (d) Estimate regional agricultural incomes; (e) Monitor imports and stocks of agricultural inputs; and (f) Liaise with SPA in maintenance of integrated sectoral data base. Work Program 8.33 The proposed work program listed in Annex 6 basically involves setting up procedures for additional primary data collection from exporting and importing agencies together with routine reporting of informal prices from regional markets. Final Products Expected 8.34 The last column of Annex 6 indicates the major final products expected to result from the various activities of each section included in the work program. These products are basically in the form of formal or informal reports with specific policy recommendations to the PS, MAWD or, in the case of lasting tasks of an operating nature, periodic policy recommendations to the PS, MAWD. No specific products are expected to result from purely coordinating tasks which will be undertaken by the PD's sections. It is suggested that both the PS and DP should monitor the progress made by sections towards the production of these products. Standards for judging the quality of these products should be their contribution to the overall requirements of the Division as stated in para. 8.5 of this report.  - 35 - Rationale for the Work Program 8.35 The proposed work program is designed to: (a) Improve MiAWD's contribution to the Fourth National Development Plan (due to be sent to NCDP about June, 1983). (b) Update and improve the data base, in its widest sense, available from and to PD, and (c) Review of the PD's project preparation, negotiation, implementation and review procedures. NDP IV 8.36 Even now there is too little time to hope to be able to assemble all the data needed for an exhaustive contribution to the Fourth Plan. However, it is important that the PD sketch out in NDP IV the dimensions of the resources needed by the sector, if it is to substantially improve its contribution to the economy and balance of payments. 22/ With the increasing stringency of foreign exchange availability, it is not only government and donor assistance which need to be planned, but also the allocations of imports. A:Lso, the physical planning which characterizes parastatal production unit;, including Operation Food Production, needs to be supplemented by a careful economic analysis of its production, costs and import requirements. 8.37 Since it seems quite unlikely that Zambia will be "self-sufficient in staple foods" by 1984 23/ and agro-industries are unlikely to be fully supplied with Zambian raw materials, the agricultural objectives of NDP IV could well be the same as for TNDP: "(i) To achieve self-reliance and self-sufficiency in staple foods, both nationally and regionally where feasible, and to provide raw materials for the agro-industries. (ii) To stimulate and increase production for exports. (iii) To increase the contribution of the rural sector to GDP and to promote diversification of the rural economy. 22/ The nine extra positions recommended in the PD are only one sign of the needed increase in sectoral resources as a whole. 23/ Partly as a result of a poor season, Zambia will need to import 2 million bags of maize to meet the shortfall of the 1981/82 season. Zambia Daily Mail, April 30, 1982.  - 36 - (iv) To improve rural standards of living and nutritional status and to create a self-reliant and progressive rural society. (v) To create new employment and income opportunities in rural areas in order to counteract rural-urban migration, and to improve infrastructural services related to increased productivity." Source: TNDP, page 14. 8.38 What was missing from TNDP and is still missing from the 1981 Annual Plan, is a realistic assessment of the resources needed to achieve the nominated targets. In a crude way, Table 4 suggests that 28 M Kwacha were required for agricultural inputs. 24/ A much more detailed study is required to check whether these levels of inputs were sufficient to meet maintenance and replacement requirements, what requirements are by sector and commodity, etc. Unless, MAWD is in a position to properly document the resources needed to implement plan targets, and the cost of failing to provide the needed resources, then it would be unreasonable to expect NCDP and Finance to protect these requirements. 24/ Exclusive of oil products, the transport system, agricultural processing, etc.  - 37 - Table 4 - E'rincipal Agricultural Imports, 1979 S.I.T.C. Million Division No. Commodity Kwacha 00 Live Animals 1.2 02 Dairy Products and Eggs 5.0 04 Cereals and Cereal Preparations 23.1 07 Coffee, Tea, Cocoa, etc. 2.1 08 Animal Foods 2.3 Other 4.1 Sub Total 37.8 11 Beverages 1.3 Sub Total 1.3 21 Oilseeds, Oilnuts and Oilkernels 1.8 23 NationaL Rubber 2.0 24 Wood, Lumber and Cork 2.6 29 Crude Animal and Vegetable Material 1.4 Other 7.1 Sub Total 7.9 41 Animal Oils and Fats 1.8 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils and Fats 7.7 43 Processed Vegetable Oils and Fats 0.5 Sub Total 10.0 56 Fertilizer Manufactured 13.1 59 Insecticides, Fungicides 4.2 63 Wood, Ccork and Manufactures 1.0 71 Agricultural Machinery and Imports 10.0 Sub Total 28.3 TOTAL 85.3 Source: Annual Agricultural Statistics Bulletin, 1980, Table 39, page 45. 8.39 Major agricultural imports for 1979 (the latest available year) are summarized in Table 4. This table shows major import substitution possibilities with respect to Cereals (23.1 K.M.), Dairy Products (5.0 K.M.), Oils and Fats (11.3 K.M.), Animal Foods (2.3 K.M.) and Beverages, Coffee, Tea or Cocoa (3.4 K.M.) but devising the necessary policy recommendation and reserving the inputs necessary to achieve these targets does indeed represent a problem.  - 38 - 8.40 Studies which would support the NDP IV submission include: BAS. 1. Examination of imported input requirements of agriculture by sector and commodity. P&M. 3. Pricing, taxation and subsidies in agriculture and their effect on supply and demand. SPA. 2. Strategy Statement for NDP IV. 8.41 In addition, something may be gleaned from P&M. 1, "Commodity (subsector) Structural Studies", particularly with respect to the prospects for self-sufficiency in wheat. The pricing, taxation and subsidy study should include the option of higher flour prices to decrease imports by redirecting demand to locally produced grains. 8.42 These studies should allow NDP IV to include a much more realistic assessment of how far it will pay Zambia to become self- sufficient in agricultural products and what the cost of achieving this self-sufficiency is likely to be. The topic of an export orientation for agriculture will need to await the completion of additional studies and it may not be possible to fully articulate this new orientation until NDP V. Data Base 8.43 Improvement of the data for the agricultural sector is the major emphasis of the proposed work plan, and this will need to continue well past the June, 1983 deadline for a contribution to NDP IV. The re-issue of the Annual Agricultural Statistics Bulletin, after a gap of six years represents a most welcome improvement in the availability of agricultural data. It is useful both in recording data which is readily available and by implication, other series which are not readily available. For instance, the absence of any data on the unofficial market, even price data, means that any "policy" discussion of the role of this market must, for the time being, be highly speculative. 8.44 Data improvement is essentially an "investment" activity with little direct policy payoff. It is, however, a very necessary investment, since without a good and detailed picture of current and past performance, it is not possible to project the likely impact of policy changes. Three types of data improvement are needed: (a) some expansion in the coverage of the data series reported, (b) some "repackaging" so that relevant data on a commodity, or function (inputs, credit) can be found in one place, and (c) a reconciliation framework which will show the connection between different data series. These three types of study are discussed below: (a) Coverage: ASS.2 - Review of additional data series to be collected and how these might be generated. A study is needed to examine which additional data series should be included in the Annual Agricultural Statistics Bulletin and how these data might be generated. It is not  - 39 - possible, a priori to list all of the additional data series which are needed, but illustrative series would be unofficial producer and consumer prices for grains and livestock, volumes of grain sales by Namboard, Imports and Exports of grains by value, Government expenditure on the sector, agricultural taxes and subsidies, Grain Inventories, cost structure of major marketing agencies, and the like. Attention should also be given to possible alternative sources of data. Thus, import and export volumes can be collected both from the Customs Department and from the agency responsible for import or export of the commodity. The ASS needs to go from having a compendium of official statistics, to hands-on knowledge of how the data were generated, their reliability and whether there is scope for improvement. This review would need to be carried out in conjunction with P&M and SPA. (b) Commodity Review: P&M. 1 - Commodity (subsector) structural studies. This is work: resulting from the mid-year Cabinet Memo on producer prices. What is needed is data for key commodities, say Maize, Wheat, Dairy and Beef, by June, 1983. Tobac:co, Coffee, Oilseeds, and Input by June, 1984, and other new crops, Rice and Cotton by June, 1985. P&M should bring out reports detailing basic statistics and a descriptive analysis of trends in production, consumption and costs. This would involve principally making available to interested c,utsiders, the analysis carried out in support of the Cabinet Memo. In the first three years this would involve additional work since the analysis would have to be written up, but in later years, it would save time due to much of the required background data being readily available. In addition to Reviews of the major commodities, it would also be useful eventually, to have reviews of functions such as provision of input, or credit, or' Zambia's international trade in agriculture. 25/ This work would best be carried out by the same staff responsible for the individual commodities going into the Cabinet Memo. 25/ See SPA. 8, SPA. 14, P&1M. 5, P&M. 9.  - 40 - The important point is that this would assemble in one place much of the historical data on the commodity or function, together with descriptive text helping to explain the trends appearing in the data and the implications of such changes. These Reviews would be of great interest to government and academic economists and new staff members. They would also facilitate a rapid response to questions originating with the Minister or Permanent Secretary. (c) Data Reconciliation: SPA. 11 - Design of integrated data base for sector. The work program for the Sector Analysis Section (See Annex 8), already includes a project "Monitoring Analysis of Agricultural Sector Performance and Government Expenditures in Agriculture", which currently has no resources assigned to it. This could be a key strategic study if "monitoring" is taken to mean collection of production, processing and consumption data and putting this into a coherent framework so that various data sources can be reconciled, and the implications of increased production (both in terms of required inputs, balance of payments and profitability of parastatals) can readily be worked out. Such a monitoring study needs to be connected to the balance of payments, since a long-term goal of agricultural policy must be to improve agriculture's net contribution to the economy and to the balance of payments. At one level such a data reconciliation study could be used to project the impact of various levels of "autonomous growth" of production; at another level, with insertion of production and consumption elasticities and cross-elasticities, it could be used to explore likely impacts of alternative price policies. In the latter form it would need to be computerized and could be described as a consistency model and could look, for instance, at the relative foreign exchange cost of increasing fertilizer or food imports, the fiscal aspects of different levels of food subsidies, etc. Though led by SPA, this study would need to be carried out in close conjunction with ASS and P&M. (d) Parastatal Efficiency: BAS.4 - Economic efficiency of parastatals, State farms and cooperatives. With the dominant role that parastatals already occupy in the supply of agricultural inputs and the collection and marketing of crops and their projected increased importance in food production per se, their efficiency is a matter of vital concern to the economy as a whole.  - 41 - This justifies a special study which would clarify, as far as possible, the cost structure of the parastatals, and relate efficiency measures from Zambiats parastatals to similar measures for other parastatals and in the private sector. Completion of this "data base" study, would lead naturally to P&M. 5, the review and evaluation of the agricultural marketing and input supply system. C. Project Review 8.45 Most foreign assistance comes in the form of development projects, thus if MAWD is to attract its share of this assistance, it will need to be sure that its project preparation and implementation capacity is highly effective. What is needed is to institutionalize good management, that is, to set up control, review and reporting systems which will identify bottlenecks early and ensure that remedial action is taken promptly. 8.46 Three types of study can be suggested: (a) a review of past and current projects to identify and study any management problems which they have had, (b) development of a Project-Cycle Handbook covering all steps from project identification to post-project evaluation and (c) a review of currently identified, but unfunded projects to see how well they comply with the needs of the program included in NDP IV. (a) Project Review: TA.1 and PAI. 3 - Design an overall control system for projects being negotiated and monitored by TA Section, and Review and analysis of past and present performance of agricultural projects or programs. This would involve preparation of an ex-poste implementation calendar, showing when and if slippage had occurred, together with a history of project identification, preparation, negotiation, implementation and review. The history would then explain reasons for slippage, total project costs and an assessment of actual benefits and relation of these benefits to those foreseen in the project proposal. A comparison across projects would then be made in an attempt to identify any common problems and to examine ways in which these problems could be avoided in future projects. (b) Project-Cycle Handbook: PAI. 4 - Preparation of project cycle handbook. Drawing on the lessons from the Project Review, it would be sensible to write a Project Cycle Handbook, which would identify all steps in the project cycle. In particular, it should set up a regular reporting cycle, identifying to  - 42 - which level reports should go, so as to ensure that problems are identified early and that responsibility for follow-up action is clearly defined. The Bank's Operations Manual could provide a good checklist of topics to be included in the Handbook, though obviously the material on implementation per se would need to be much fuller than in the Manual. (c) Project Portfolio: PAI. 5 and PAI. 6 - Review of regions and commodities with high development potential, and preparation, monitoring and control of agricultural projects and programs. The portfolio of identified and prepared, but not yet funded, projects, should reflect the general development strategy being pursued by government. In particular, the PAI should make sure that the portfolio of projects that it wishes to see funded corresponds with the strategy to be advocated in NDP IV, and that if these projects were funded, then the targets in NDP IV would in fact be likely to be attained. This requires a broad perspective on the development potential of the sector as a whole, and would require ongoing liaison with P&M and SPA. In particular, P&M studies I (Commodity/Subsector Structural Studies), 6 (Collection and Analysis of Farm Management Data), 7 (Liaison with ARPT's) and 9 (Inter-regional Transport Costs) would be highly relevant as would SPPA. 5 (Agricultural Development Strategy Study). While there is room for considerable debate both as to the content of the proposed work program, priorities within it and its practicality in the light of current PD resources, we hope that the need to spell out a detailed and substantial work program will be generally agreed, by all those who accept the basic premise that agricultural expansion is a necessary condition for continued development of the Zambian economy. Management Procedures 8.47 As mentioned earlier in this report, the adoption of standard management techniques for internal communication, coordination and control could lead to significant improvement in both institutional and staff performance. Indeed, the recommendations relating to redefinition of objectives, functions and work program in the foregoing paragraphs are based on the assumption that such management procedures would be adopted. The proposals on management procedures in the following sections relate to staff meetings, staff work programs and staff deployment.  -43 - 8.48 In order to improve internal communication, control and coordination we proposed t:hat meetings 26/ be periodically held, between (a) the PS and DP (weekly); (b) the PS, DP and section heads (monthly); (c) the DP and section heads (weekly); (d) the DP and divisional staff (monthly); and (e) the section heads and section staff (weekly) for the following purposes. The meetings should: (a) review work. programs; (b) discuss general divisional or sectional matters; (c) review and discuss specific reports and policy recommendations; (d) exchange views on matters of general interest to the division or agriculture. Section heads should also make a practice of meeting briefly, at least once a fortnight, with individual staff members to check on progress, personal problems and to indicate proper interest and support for their work. Report Review Procedures 8.49 In order to ensure cross-fertilization of ideas and professional interaction among the divisional staff, it is proposed that all major reports and policy recommendations be reviewed at (a) section level with all section staff participating; (b) divisional level with all section heads participating under the chairmanship of the DP; and (c) PS level with the DP and staff responsible for the report participating. The reports and/or policy recommendations should be revised at each level to reflect comments made, so that the final draft to be discussed with the PS would more or less reflect divisional position or consensus. Staff Work Programs 8.50 It is proposed that individual staff work programs be developed on the basis of section work program. The review and control of such staff tasks by section heads should be done at weekly or fortnightly meetings with individual staff. Staff Needs 8.51 In addition to some reorganization of the work of the PD, this report also recommends a modest expansion or rounding out, of its activities. If we assume that financial analysts, production economists and other specialists are at the Senior Economist level, the existing and proposed staffing profiles are: 26/ In most cases, meetings could be completed within an hour, if held regularly.  - 44 - Existing Proposed Director 1 1 Principal Economist 1 2 Section Head 6 6 Economist 15 18 Statisticians 2 2 Professional Staff 29 38 The additional nine positions which are needed correspond fairly closely to the seven staff currently away on training. It is clear that if the PD is to be properly staffed to advise on agricultural expansion, then government will have to make more professional staff available. Whether this is done by creating new positions, or by re-classifying existing positions and allowing the PD to "back-fill" positions whose incumbent is on training is immaterial. These additional staff represent the first of a large number of resource transfers which will be necessary as Zambia moves towards increased emphasis on agricultural development and exports. Hardware 8.51 The need for a better telephone system, a reliable copier and microcomputer has already been mentioned in Sections 7.12 - 7.14. A suggested microcomputer configuration is attached as Annex 7.  - 45 - ANNEX 1 Current Crganogram of Planning Division (June, 1982) DIRECTOR OF PLANNING CaIEF ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST/ SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR SENIOR ECONOMISTRIEGIONAL PLANNER STATISTICIAN (TECHNICAL (PROJECT PLANNING (REGIONAL (MARRETING) (SECTORAL (AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANGCE) AND EVALUATION) DEVELOPMENT) PLANNING) STATISTICS) L ECONOI ST/ ECONOMIST! ECONOMIST/ [CON ZST ECONOMIST/ STATISTICIAN PLANNING OFFICER |PLANING OFFICER PLANNING OFFICER CER PLANNING OFFICER  I I I  - 46 - ANNEX 2 Page 1 ANNEX II - PLANNING DIVISION:* PROPOSED ORGANOGRAM AND JOB DESCRIPTIONS Description The Planning Division is a group of professional economists attached directly to the office of the Permanent Secretary and reporting through the Under Secretary (Planning). Responsibilities The Planning Division is the focal point within the Ministry for the provision of policy ad-vice to the Permanent Secretary and Minister in the area of Agricultural and Food Strategy. Within the overall food strategy it provides planning and evaluation capabilities for individual project- proposals, ministerial liaison with foreign donors and agencies, domestic liaison with other Ministries such as Finance and NCDP, economic and statistical analysis capablities for special studies within the agricultural sector and fo'r ongoing exercises such as commodity pricing proposals and supply and demand projections of agricultural commodities and inputs. It also coordinates Ministry-wide activities such as budget submissions, annual reports, etc. Rational for Reorganizations It has recently been recognized that the new and larger demands being put on the Planning Unit call for the streamlining of the organizational structure. There are two major reasons for the proposed reorganization: (i) The grouping of sections within the Unit that work closely with one another to provide more efficient coordination of work activities and provide for the cross-utilization of staff between closely related sections. (ii) The introduction of new senior middle management positions to ease span of control problems experienced in the current organizational structure and provide the opportunity to more directly assign Managerial responsibility. Because of the high turnover rate of both expatriates and Zambian staff it is essential that methodologies and procedures are institutionalized within an organizational structure that will ensure continuous and high quality economic support to the senior management team of the Ministry. Proposed Organizational Chart (See Annex) Proposed Job Descriptions for Senior Positions (See attached) * Provisional Proposal, wh:ich has been submitted to MAWD, but not officially approved by MAWD.  - 47 - ANNEX 2 Page 2 WITHIN THE PLANNING DIVISION Technical Assistance Section Liaison with foreign donors. Ministry input to Technical Assistance Agreements. Preparation of annual report on Foreign Assistance. Project Planning and Evalution Section For Commodity Development Projects: - identification - preparation - appraisal - monitoring - evaluation For All Projects/Programs: Preparation of the Capital Budget Monitoring of Capital Expenditure Monitoring of Subsidy Utilization Ministry's liaison with Rural Development Corporation Limited. Regional Development Section For Regional Development Programs: - identification - preparation - appraisal - monitoring - evaluation Coordination of overall strategy and policy for area projects. Preparation of area project budgets. Marketing Section Agricultural commodity analysis Collection and dissemination of market information. Determination of production costs for agricultural products. Recommendations on agricultural producer prices. Ministry's liaison with NAMBOARD, Cold Storage Board, Tobacco Board of Zambia, Lintco, Dairy Produce Board and Cooperative Marketing Unions. Preparation of marketing subsidy budget.  - 48 - ANNEX 2 Page 3 Sectoral Planning Section Strategy formulation and analysis Supply and Demand analysis Preparation of Annual Plan Preparation of Annual Economic Report Econometric Model Construction Statistics Collection and analysis of agricultural statistics Baseline data exercise Crop forecasting  - 49 - ANNEX 2 Page 4 Job Description Designation: Principal Economist (Project Development) Immediate Supervisor: Chief Economist Duties: 1. Project Planning Evaluation. Responsible for project identification, consistent with the approved food strategy, and the planning monitoring and evalution of such projects. Responsible for review and analysis of projects proposed by donor agencies to ensure the projects are in the best interest of the Zambian Government. 2. Regional Development. Responsible for the coordination of regional development projects and the necessary inter- and intra Ministry liaison required for the integrated aspects of these projects. 3. Budget. Responsible for coordination of the Ministry's capital budget submission and liasion on behalf of the Ministry with NCDP and Finance. 4. Technical Assistance. Responsible for provision of a focal point for Ministry liaison with foreign donor agencies.  - 50 - ANNEX 2 Page 5 Job Description Designation: Principal Economist (Project Development) Immediate Supervisor: Chief Economist Duties: 1. Agricultural data. Responsible for the collection, analysis and dissemination of data relevant to the agricultural sector. 2. Marketing. Responsible for the development of a range of recommendations on the marketing of agricultural products, production costs, producer prices and incentives including analysis of the consequences of following such recommendations. 3. Food Strategy. Responsible for the quality of economic analysis done on various proposed food strategy alternatives including recommendations on the Ministry's priority for further development of the agricultural sector. 4. Parastatal Coordination. Responsible for ensuring that MAWD is adequately represented on agricultural parastatal borads and that the interests of agriculture as a whole are being effectively served by the activities of these organizations. This would include monitoring the financial and developmental activities of these organizations.  - 51 - ANNEX 2 Page 6 Job Description Designation: Senior Economist (Technical Assistance) Immediate Supervisor: Principal Economist (Project Development) Duties: 1. Provide a focal point for liaison with donor agencies. 2. Provide coordination of Ministry input to Technical Assistance Agreements. 3. Prepare the annual report on Foreign Assistance. 4. Provide adequate administrative support for foreign funded projects to become operational. 5. Organize Ministry participation in foreign missions visiting Zambia. Job Description Designation: Senior Economist (Project Planning Evaluation Immediate Supervisor: Principal Economist (Project Development) Duties: 1. Supervises the work of staff economists in the identification, planning and evaluation of commodity specific projects. 2. Supervises the preparation of capital budget submissions for NCDP consideration. 3. Ensures adequate control mechanisms exist to monitor the release and use of capital funds.  - 52 - ANNEX 2 Page 7 Job Description Designation: Senior Economist (Regional Development) Immediate Supervisor: Principal Economist (Project Development) Duties: 1. Coordinate and implement regional development projects and achieves high priority Ministerial objectives. 2. Within these regional projects identify, plan, monitor and evaluate work program. 3. Provide to the Senior Economist (Project, Planning Evaluation) in a timely manner projected budget proposals for program under his direction. 4. Ensure the development of an overall strategy for regional development programs. Job Description Designation: Principal Economist (Economic Services) Immediate Supervisor: Chief Economist Duties: 1. Agricultural Data. Responsible for the collection, analysis and dissemination of data relevant to the agricultural sector. 2. Marketing. Responsible for the development of a range of recommendations on the marketing of agricultural products, production costs, producer prices and incentives including analysis of the consequences of following such recommendations. 3. Food Strategy. Responsible for the quality of economic analysis done on various proposed food strategy alternatives including recommendations on the Ministry's priority for further development of the agricultural sector.  - 53 - ANNEX 2 Page 8 Job Description Designation: Director of Planning Immediate SuDervisor: Permanent Secretary Duties: 1. Senior policy advisor to the Permanent Secretary and Mlinister. Responsible for the provision of timely and accurate data on all economic aspects of the agricultural sector and advice on policy direction and agricultural planning. 2. Member of the Ministry's senior international negotiation team with respect to new project proposals. Ensures that new projects accepted by the Ministry effectively contribute to the overall agricultural sector strategy. 3. Head of the Planning Division. Provides general direction in terms of priority and importance of various work activities within the Division. 4. Supervision. Directly supervises the work of the Chief Economist.  -54 - ANNEX 2 Page 9 Job Description Designation: Chief Economist Immediate Supervisor: Under Secretary (Planning) Duties: 1. Supervision. Responsible for the supervision and direction (through subordinates) of the day to day work of the professional staff of the Planning Division. Direct supervision of two Principal Economists. 2. Economic Analysis. Responsible for the timeliness and quality of all economic analysis provided to the Under Secretary (Planning) for his use in advising the Permanent Secretary and Minister on policy matters. 3. Staffing and Training. Responsible for ensuring that positions within the Planning Division are adequately staffed with candidates capable of doing sound economic analysis. Develops, in conjunction with the Ministry's Training section, an annual training plan to ensure capable Zambian economists are available to carry on the work of the Division.  -55 - ANNEX 2 Page 10 Job Description Designation: Senior Economist (Marketing) Immediate Supervisor: Principal Economist (Economic Services) Duties: 1. Determine the cost of production data for key agricultural products and develop recommendations for agricultural producer prices. 2. Annual preparation of the marketing subsidy budget. 3. Provide the Ministry's liaison with NAMBOARD, Cold Storage Board, Tobacco Board of Zambia, Lintco, Dairy Produce Board and Cooperative M4arketing Unions. 4. Collect, analyze and disseminate market information. Job Description Designation: Senior Economist (Sectoral Planning) Immediate Supervisor: Principal Economist (Economic Services) Duties: 1. Analyze past and present performance of the agricultural sector with respect to stated objectives. 2. Analyze supply and demand for food and agricultural inputs and recommend strategy to ensure stable supply to meet demand. 3. Recommend overall strategy for agricultural sector and priorities for Ministry's projects and programs. 4. Construct workable economic models for the agricultural sector. 5. Prepare Ministry's contribution to the Annual Plan and Annual Economic Report.  - 56 - ANNEX 2 Page IT Job Description Designation: Senior Statistician (Statistics) Immediate Supervisor: Principal Economist (Economic Services) Duties: 1. Update and maintain current time series data for the agricultural sector. 2. On request from other sectionts design and implement special statistical studies. 3. Provide the Ministry's input into multi-agency statistical studies such as the baseline data exercise. 4. Liaise with C.S.O. and ensure that duplication is avoided and that C.S.O. data is as useful as possible to the Ministry. Job Description Designation: Economist Immediate Supervisor: SerLior Economist Duties: 1. Assess production priorities in relation to the national crop and livestock policies. 2. Evaluate programs and projects for economic viability. 3. Conduct market research and intelligence and develop rationale for pricing policy. 4. Analyze investment and resource allocation and assist Departments in preparing projects.  -57- ANNEX 2 Page 12 Job Description Designation: Planning Officer Immediate Supervisor: Senior Economist Duties: 1. Assess the agricultural and sociological implications of projects and programs. 2. Assist in the preparation of proposed projects and programs. 3. Assist in routine liaison with parastatal boards. 4. Assist in the preparation of annual reports, plans, etc.  -58- ANNEX 2 Page 13 DIRECTOR OF PLANNING CHIEF ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL ECONONIST (PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (ECONOMIC SERVICES UNIT) UNIT) SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST! SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR REGIONAL PLANNER STATISTICIAN (TECHNICAL (PROJECT PLA.NNING (REGIONAL (MARKETING) (SECTORAL- (AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE) AND EVALUATION) DEVELOPMeNT) PLANNING) STATISTICS) ECONOMIST/ ECONOMIST/ ECONOMIST/ ECONOMISTI ECONOMIST/ STATISTICN PLANNING OFFICE PLANNING OFFICER j&NG OFFICER PLANNING OFFTLRN FITCER   59 - ANNEX 3 ZAMBIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND WATE1 DEVELOPMENT PROPOSED ORGANOGRAM FOR THE PLANNING DIVISION DIRECTOR OF PLANNING PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST (PROJ. PREP. AND EVALUATION (ECONO. AALYSIS) _FOJ P _ .l ENIOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST SENOR ECONOMIST SENIOR ECONOMIST ESENIR ECONOMIST SENIOR l | ~~~~~STATISTICIAN (BAS) (PAI) (TA) (PiM) (SPA) (ASS) ECONOMISTS PROJ. ECO ./AGRI. | ONOMIsTS ECONOMISTS CONOMISTS STATISTI r l l | l l l l S I I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-C  w  -60- VINEX 4 Page 1 Summary of Innact cf Proposed Reorganization of the Planning Division Responsibilities Old Name Old Staff* Reduced Added New Name New Staff Directorate Director (1) Directorate Directorate (1) Chief Economist (1) Principal Economists (2)| Technical Technical Section Head (1) Assistance (TA) Section Head (1) .1,2,3,7 Assistance (TA) Economists (2) Section Head (1) Senior Economist (1) Section Head (1) Fiscal Economist (1) Project Planning Senior Economists (2) 1,2,3, Budget Anslysis Financial Analyst (1) and Evaluation (PPE) Economist (4) 4,5,6 8,9 (BAS) Economists (4) Section Head (1) Section Head (1) Senior Economist (1) Project Analysis Senior Economist (1) Regional Development Agr. Supervisor (1) and ITplementation Production Economist (1) (RDS) Rural Sociologist (1) 1,2,3 4,5,6 (PAl) Economists (4) Economists (2) Section lead (1) Senior Economist (1) Section Head (1) Production and Production Economist (1) Mariating (MS) Economists (5) 10, 11 Marketing CP&M) Economists (4) Agricultural Section H-ed (1) 12 Agricultural Section head (1) Statistics (ASS) Statisticians (2) Statistics (ASS) Statisticians (2) Section Head (1) Section Read (1) Sectoral Policy Senior Economist (1) Sectoral Policy Senior Economists (3) Analysis (SPA) Economists (2) 12 Analysis.(SPA) Economists (4) * Includes expatriates, but not staff on traiwsng  - 61 - ANiNEX 4 Page 2 Reallocated Tasks From To 1. Drafting subsidiary financing RDS, PPE TA agreements 2. Liaison with Central Ministries and donors on Project matters RDS, PPE TA 3. Project start up activities, recruitment, tender document, satisfaction of conditionality RDS, PPE TA 4. Project Preparation PPE PAI 5. Project Implementation PPE PAI 6. Project Evaluation PPE PAI New Tasks To 7. Manpower Planning TA 8. Monitoring Sectoral Import Requirements BAS 9. Recurrent Budget for Agricultural Sector BAS 10. Collection and Analysis of Farm Management P&M 11. Study of the Input Supply System P&M 12. Integrated Sectoral Data Base SPA & ASS  -62- AN*NEX 5 Seaff St:rength, Planning Division, April 1982 Secti_n _osition Incumbent Date of Section Position Incumbent Appointment Degree Local Remarks Directorate Director F. Mbeve 1981 (?) M.Ag.&c. Yes Assistant Director Vacant Marketing Economist M. Lungu 6/81 M.S. Yes Marketing Economist R. Evert 10/81 3.Ag.Sc. CIfl Economist M. Banda 9/80 B.A. Yes Goes on Training 8/82 Economist A. Mwanausa 7/81 B.A. Yes Economist S. Muchindu 7/81 B.A. Yes Economist M. Simemba 7/82 M.A. Yes Sectoral Senior Economist P. Maleka ?/75 M.Ag.Ec. Yes lanning Senior Economist D. McClatchy 7/81 Ph.D. CIDA- Economist R. Suba 6/81 B.A. Yes Goes on Training 8/82 Economist F. Meiinga 7/81 B.A. Yes Technical Assistance Principal J. Renb- 2/56 B.Ag.Sc. No. D Retires 12/82 E. Mtauboh 9/80 B.A. Yes Replacing Remba Statistics Senior Statistician Phiri S/82 N.A. Statistician I. Patel 5/76 M.Sc. No. C Statistics Posts Statistician Chabdhri FAM Technical Assistant dlu May Harpower Seior Mnpoer Planner G. Norby 10/81 M.Ag.Sc. SIDA Project Planning Senior Economist R. Verm 1/75 M.Ec. No. C and Evaluation Senior Economist 1. Benoit 2/81 1.2c. CIDA Senior Economist S. Rayfield 11/80 M.Ag.2c. CIDA Econoidat A. Banda 1/81 BA. Yes Goes on Training 8/82 Livestock Economist Y. Teferra 3/78 MAg.Ec. FAO Leaves 12/82 Economist M. Mnsa 1/78 M.Ag.Ec. Yes Economist P. Slam 7/81 B.A. Yes Goe on Training 8/82 Regional Temporary Replacement Developmnt Senior Economist R. Birch 8/80 B.A. SIDA Jonason ex IRDP East Prov Senior Economist M. Milala ?/80 B.A. Yes Agricultural Supervisor D. Husongole 4/77 Dip.Ag.Bus. Yes Aural Soc. D. Siam. 11/80 B.A. Yes Economist K. Katongo 8/81 B.A. Yes Goes on Training Economist Vacant On rraining Agricultural Supervisor J. ChirwA 12/71 Dip.Ag.zus. Yes Marketing Economist Vacant Economist C. Mtmtanga 7/79 B.A. Yes Economist A. Muaba 9/80 B.A. Yes Economist M. Soko 9/80 B.A. Yes Economist E. Maluabe 7/79 B.A. Yes Economist E. Mslado 7/80 B.A. Yes  I  98)118988 or 63.98)LL'4'44 AND DATD liR-6 DF1FI49368ig y5e 634 1-8/s13 1983164 1984859 1 d9 196888 P4Adl,c4Rx990440 (11 8oA89,n 498ti O94AOOAA l Kr5094 IAO4D Aa09040A being AAOeAtd9OA) niA ..8DDpAD9d9b T Cc _____________________________________ 8oAloLopto f ioA6D3ApADiyAror oo8003Ao,o ( I) g n anon or pprop A en A oF p 9O8n8A9d f0r9 e 0 D i8 0s1 sA4D4 PAp46) o'Ith pofl 8988494 p44Ayre o=ndaA4p8 /41 CoordAPA4006 4498 reAiew D AD reign 9D408 ncD 4 in801440 19 c 4 0- - - ---------------- - ---- -----