Somalia - Fourth Education Project

Document of The World Bank LE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2950-SO REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR A FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT February 3, 1981 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Somali Shilling (So.Sh.) US$0.1589 = So. Sh. 1.00 US$1.00 = So. Sh. 6.295 US$1.00 = SDR 0.783257 MEASURES 1 meter (m) 2 = 3.28 (ft. 1 square meter (m ) 5 10.76 (ft ) ABBREVIATIONS CDD - Curriculum Development Division of the MOE CEC - Community Education Center EEC - European Economic Community FRG - Federal Republic of Germany FYDP - Five Year Development Program. (1974-78) GOS - Government of Somalia ICB - International Competitive Bidding MCHE - Ministry of Culture and Higher Education MOE - Ministry of Education MPW - Ministry of Public Works NAEC - National Adult Education Center NTC - Nomadic Training Center PIU - Project Implementation Unit PTTRC - Primary Teacher Training Resource Center SIDAM - Somali Institute of Development Administration and Management SPA - State Printing Agency TTEC - Technical Teacher Education College TYDP - Three Year Development Plan. (1979-81) UPE - Universal Primary Education FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  SOMALIA FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: Somali Democratic Republic Beneficiary: Ministry of Education Amount: SDR 8.0 million (US$10.2 million) equivalent Terms: Standard Project Objectives The Project objectives are to (a) improve the quality and and Description: efficiency of teaching in primary and secondary schools by upgrading facilities for training of teachers; (b) provide more equitable opportunities for secondary education in rural areas; and (c) provide training facilities and technical assistance for long-term planning of manpower requirements and review of the civil service. To accomplish these objectives, the Project includes the following parts: 1. Improvements, extensions, equipping and furnishing of: (i) five existing secondary schools for in- service primary teacher training; (ii) one existing Secondary Teacher Training College, the Lafole College of Education; and (iii) ten existing general secondary schools. 2. Construction, furnishing and equipping of four new general secondary schools. 3. Equipping the Somali Institute of Development Administration. 4. (a) Carrying out of a survey of the Lafole College of Education on: (i) administration, (ii) organization of maintenance; and (iii) catering services for boarding students with the assistance of about two man-years of specialist services; (b) Improvement of teaching and administrative education in the Somali Institute of Development Administration by the provi- sion of experienced teachers and commercial administra- tive educators equivalent to 20 man-years of services by a commercial institute or college; and (c) Carrying out of pre-investment and evaluation studies, and a study for the review of the civil service with the assistance of about 48 man-months of consultants services. Risks: There is no major risk. However, possibility of rising educational costs may place the Government under such a financial strain that it would be unable to maintain quality education. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Estimated Cost US$ Million Local Foreign Total Z of Base Cost 1. Civil Works, Furniture, Equipment and Vehicles Primary Teacher Training Resource Centers 0.3 1.3 1.6 17 Lafole College of Education 0.1 0.4 0.5 5 General Secondary Schools 1.1 2.0 3.1 34 Somali Institute of Devel- opment Administration and Management - 0.2 0.2 2 Project Unit's Warehouse - 0.1 0.1 1 Sub-total 1.5 4.0 5.5 59 2. Technical Assistance 0.2 2.1 2.3 25 3. In-Service Training (PTTRCs) 0.7 0.5 1.2 13 4. Project Administration 0.2 0.1 0.3 3 Total Baseline Cost 2.6 6.7 9.3 100 5. Contingencies Physical 0.2 0.4 0.6 Price Increase 1.0 2.1 3.1 Sub-total 1.2 2.5 3.7 Total Project Costs (including US$3.0 million equivalent of taxes) 3.8 9.2 13.0 Financial Plan IDA 1.0 9.2 10.2 Somali Government 2.5 - 2.5 Total Project Costs, net of taxes 3.5 9.2 12.7 Estimated Disbursements: (US$ million) IDA FY 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Annual - 0.6 1.5 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.2 Cumulative - 0.6 2.1 6.7 9.0 10.0 10.2 Staff Appraisal Report No: 3059-SO, dated December 12, 1980. Map: IBRD 15068  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR A FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the Somali Democratic Republic for SDR 8.0 million (US$10.2 mil- lion) equivalent on standard IDA terms to help finance a fourth education project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A Country Economic Memorandum (Report No. 2244-SO) was distributed to the Executive Directors in January 1979. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. The report of a mission which carried out an Agricultural Sector Review was completed recently for discussions with the Government. In June 1980 there was an economic updating mission, whose report is under preparation. Its findings are reflected below. 3. The Somali Democratic Republic gained independence in 1960 and the present Government came into power in 1969. Under a new Constitution adopted in 1979, elections for a People's Assembly were held in December, 1979. The Assembly appointed General Siad Barre as President in January, 1980. The country is still affected by hostilities in the border areas in the Ogaden, and the disruption caused by the phasing-out of Soviet aid and technical assistance in 1977. During 1980, war activities in the Ogaden intensified which caused a large influx of refugees estimated at over one million, and led the Government to declare a state of emergency in November 1980. 4. Somalia is a large country with a 3,000 kilometer coastline; its land mass varies from a hot and arid coastal plain, to rugged mountains and plateaus, and lowlands of varying fertility and rainfall. Only 13% of the land is said to be arable, but with water the limiting constraint, only a small fraction of this potentially arable land is, in fact, cultivated. Of a total population of approximately 4.0 million, about 60% are nomads and semi-nomads who depend on livestock for their livelihood, about 20% are farmers cultivating land along the Juba and Shebelli rivers and in the higher-rainfall Bay and North-west regions, while the rest are engaged in non-agricultural occupations. The existence of several minerals has been confirmed but exploration is still in its early stages, and commercial viability remains to be proved. Short of other known resources, Somalia's prospects depend upon agricultural and livestock development in which progress will depend upon careful management of scarce land and water resources.  - 2 - 5. Apart from the traditional export of livestock, commercial agricul- ture is mainly centered on the production and export of bananas, in which foreign concession holders are still important, and the production of sugar for the domestic market. The expansion of manufacturing and service sectors of the economy is limited by the small size of the domestic market, poor infrastructure, and the shortage of capital and entrepreneurial experience. Bank staff estimate that about 70% of the population live at subsistence levels of about US$200-250 per family of five. Social services are still very inadequate. Per capita income, which is tentatively estimated at US$185 in 1978, has most probably not increased in real terms over the past six years. Development Strategy 6. Since the revolution in 1969, the Government has adhered to a program of "scientific socialism", emphasizing egalitarianism and social justice, development through the public sector, nationalization of certain foreign enterprises, and the formation of cooperatives. While the Government has always stated that there is room for private initiative in Somalia and several privately financed projects have been implemented, the main emphasis has been given to development of the public sector. Public ownership and management have expanded through nationalization and creation of enterprises. The parastatal sector now includes more than 50 autonomous agencies that have eliminated private enterprises in wholesale trade and banking while taking a major share in manufacturing. The Five-Year Development Plan (1974-78) and the current Three-Year Plan (1979-81) are essentially public investment programs that allowed for a few small private ventures. Although the plans provided a needed impetus to investment in the economy, they do not seem to play a major role in the allocative process. Despite the Government's initial intentions, industry and mining, and infrastructure, have received more public investment than agriculture. At the same time, enterprises have operated without firm Government control, owing to a large extent to weak management and the inadequacies of monitoring instruments. 7. Somalia has made considerable progress in meeting some basic needs; a program of literacy and primary education has had noticeable results, and an effective system of food distribution has been established. In other areas of the social sectors, however, the record is less impressive, particularly in water supply, sanitation, and health where services frequently seem to have been biased in favor of the urban population. On the other hand, economic growth has been rather slow, making it difficult for Somalia to pursue its basic needs policies vigorously. 8. The major development goals of the Somali Government include self- sufficiency in food grains, the partial substitution of other agricultural imports (oils, sugar, cotton) and improvement of the lot of the traditional nomadic herdsmen through settlement programs and improvements in livestock production and marketing facilities. The current emphasis on irrigated agriculture is meant to make the country less dependent on the erratic pattern of rainfall, and assure more stable and predictable increases in  - 3 - output. However, rainfed agriculture, which occupies the largest number of farm families is also being assisted. Improvements in livestock production and marketing are being promoted together with projects aiming at the rehabi- litation of the rangelands. The Government's industrial development policy focuses on the processing of domestic raw materials to substitute for imports. Finally, the Government places emphasis on developing infrastructure, espe- cially transportation and communications. Economic Performance, Problems and Developments 9. Available indicators on production suggest that between 1972 and 1978, gross domestic product in real terms increased by about 2.5% a year which, given a similar population growth rate (2.3%) led to stagnation in per capita income. In the productive sectors, the growth was only 1% a year on the average, while in the services sectors it was 6.5%, reflecting to a large extent the increase in government employment. In the productive sectors, the annual growth was 2.5% in livestock, minus 5% in crop production, and minus 0.5% in industry. After 1978, output in agriculture and industry has most likely continued to stagnate. The development of crop production is partic- ularly disappointing. Thus, while food grain production stagnated, there was a sharp decline in banana production and moderate decline in industrial crops, particularly sugar. The causes of this are manifold: lack of effec- tive production-oriented development program, uncertainty among private banana growers, management and agronomic problems on government production schemes. Above all, however, the lack of incentives was a major factor. For the most important crops, producer prices have decreased in real terms; in 1980, they are estimated to be lower than 1974: by 43% for bananas, 31% for maize and sorghum, and 48% for sesame seed and cotton. In the industrial sector, where agro-industries predominate, growth has been hampered by the generally declining trend in agricultural output as well as by the many problems besetting public enterprises. 10. The 1974-78 Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP) was revised several times but remained overambitious with respect to both financial and implemen- tation capacities. Total expenditures on projects during the FYDP amounted to So.Sh. 4.3 billion as against the total planned investment of So. Sh. 7.0 billion. The Three-Year Development Plan (TYDP), covering 1979-81, calls for total expenditures of So.Sh. 7.1 billion over the three-year period, of which more than half represents outlays on projects carried over from the 1974-78 development program. Of the total anticipated expenditure, about 64% is expected to be financed from foreign financing; the remainder is expected from domestic savings and borrowing from domestic sources. It appears that the TYDP is likely to face difficulties in implementation similar to FYDP owing to low absorptive capacity and severe domestic resource constraints. 11. More than 100,000 Somalis have migrated to work in the neighboring oil-exporting States. Total earnings of the migrants equal about ten times the total domestic value added in Somalia's modern sector. Labor migration has  - 4 - been a phenomenon that the Government neither organizes nor controls, and its magnitude is such that the drain of skills affects the smooth functioning of a government-controlled economy. Migration is seriously depleting Somalia's already low stock of qualified and skilled manpower, thereby weakening its institutions and reducing the absorptive capacity of the country. 12. Until 1977, budgetary policies remained generally conservative with efforts made to mobilize resources through taxation. Although the drought and the border problems adversely affected the Government's budget during this period, inflows from sizeable external grants had considerably eased the financial impact of the drought and the war. However, the border conflict of 1977/78 further accelerated the process of fiscal deterioration that was already visible. In fact, the expansion of Government services nation-wide, the rapidly rising defense expenditure and the recurrent cost implications of recent public investment and policies, made it increasingly difficult to generate savings. During 1978-80, the Government's financial situation deteriorated rapidly, mainly because of a sizeable expansion in expenditure resulting from several factors, including the border conflict, the cost of maintaining large numbers of refugees and the wage bill associated with Government policy of guaranteed employment for all school leavers. At the same time, official foreign aid declined. As a result, the budgetary situation worsened and the Government, which until 1978 had maintained a net creditor position with the Central Bank, resorted to borrowing heavily from the banking system, with deficit financing growing from So.Sh. 409 million in 1978 to So.Sh. 920 million in 1979. This, in turn, led to a sharp increase of the rate of inflation; 10% in 1978, 25% in 1979, and a further acceleration in the first half of 1980 to about 50%. 13. The existence side-by-side of an official foreign exchange market and a free market, funded largely by migrant workers' earnings, has given rise to large unrecorded trade and monetary flows. A serious analysis of balance of payments developments on the basis of officially published figures is therefore not possible. Data for external reserves suggest that Somalia had a comfortable overall balance of payments position up to the beginning of 1979. Total reserves increased steadily from US$31 million in 1972 to US$158 million at the end of the first quarter of 1979, at which time they were equivalent to 6 months of recorded imports of goods and services. Since then, a sharp deterioration has set in. By July 1980, reserves had fallen to US$41 million (1.3 months of imports). From partially available data it must be concluded that the seemingly favorable position up to the beginning of 1979 was largely the result of a sharp increase in official capital inflows. Disbursements from foreign loans and grants rose from US$57 million in 1972 to almost US$200 million in 1977. A substantial part of the inflow was related to two events, the drought in 1974/75 and the war in 1977/78. Export perfor- mance, however, has been disappointing. In real terms, exports of goods declined by about 5 percent a year on the average between 1972 and 1979. When after 1977 disbursements from loans and grants started declining (in 1979 the figure was US$146 million), this underlying weakness of the balance of pay- ments manifested itself in a sharp loss of reserves.  -5 - 14. The sluggish exports and a low level of domestic savings, have made external assistance most important in the financing of development. After joining the Arab League in 1974, Somalia mounted a major effort to attract funds from the Arab petroleum exporting countries. The large inflows of external capital and transfers from 1975 onwards indicate that the effort has been successful. After 1977, the source of foreign assistance changed from the socialist countries (except for the People's Republic of China which maintains a large program) towards Arab bilateral and multilateral institutions and Western countries, several of which have had substantial assistance programs for a number of years. The public external debt of Somalia outstand- ing and disbursed as of December 1979 was US$546 million, or about 50% of GDP. Although a large share of the external debt is on fairly soft terms, the debt service ratio increased from about 5.5% in 1977 to about 8% in 1978 and 1979. The debt service burden is expected to become much heavier in the near future with its ratio to export earnings increasing to almost 30 percent by 1983. 15. Government has recently shown some awareness that corrective poli- cies are needed to face the economic and financial deterioration. In January 1980, the Government entered into its first Stabilization Program with the IMF. The program aimed at restraining both public and private domestic demand, raising domestic output of food crops and expanding exports through changes in product and factor prices. However, the Fund program met with some diffi- culties, because the Government has so far been unable to adhere to the agreed credit ceilings. Moreover, in addition to the stabilization program, greater emphasis should be given to economic growth; this would imply directing more investment towards productive activities, particularly agriculture and small-scale industry. The mobilization of resources to this end should be sought through better management of public enterprises, and more dynamic measures to encourage the migrants to return to Somalia and to attract the financial resources of the migrants. In the interest of economic growth, greater incentives ought to be created to stimulate production. 16. At this stage, export prospects are not very promising because of the concentration on two primary products -- livestock and bananas -- both of which face problems in expanding production in the long run. Livestock is subject to cyclical droughts which decrease export supplies. Banana exports have fallen because of supply (drought, floods, poor agricul- tural practices) and demand (increasing competition from multinationals in both Italy and the Middle East) problems. Diversification efforts have been attempted with hides, skins, and fisheries but so far not with much success. In view of the country's poverty and uncertain export prospects, and because of the fiscal constraints, occasional financing of local costs should be provided. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SOMALIA 17. Starting in 1965 IDA has made 21 credits totaling US$147 million, of which about 35% have been made for transportation development, including  - 6 - construction of three trunk roads and a new deepwater port and associated extensions at Mogadishu. IDA credits were also made for livestock development in FY74, for a development finance company project in FY77, and for education in FY71, FY75 and FY78. Lending for crop agriculture commenced in FY76 with two credits for a Drought Rehabilitation Project and a North-West Region Agricultural Development Project. Additional Credits for Central Rangelands and Agricultural Extension and Training and Bay Region Development projects were approved in FY79 and FY80. Agricultural and livestock credits approved for Somalia together represent 41% of total lending. A credit for development of water supply in Mogadishu and a technical assistance Credit for project preparation were approved in FY78. A Credit for promotion of petroleum exploration was approved in FY80. IFC recently made its first loan to Somalia. No Bank loan has been made to Somalia. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits as of November 30, 1980 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. Performance on ongoing projects has been somewhat weak due mainly to shortage of qualified personnel. As the pace of development continues to rise, absorptive capacity constraints are becoming increasingly evident, especially in the field of agriculture where projects are rather complex and implementation experience is limited. Therefore, in preparing and appraising new projects, particularly close attention is being paid to implementation capacity and the adoption of measures to ease this constraint when necessary. As one step to address this problem, the Government has established a Project Implementation Unit in the Ministry of National Planning which has strengthened the capacity for project implementation considerably by providing monitoring and logistical support to the projects, including assistance in procurement and recruitment of consultants. 19. We plan to concentrate our future efforts on the country's directly productive sectors, agriculture and livestock, and also on education and transportation. While agriculture and livestock offer potential for develop- ment, most rural development activities are only in the early stages. More- over, agricultural development in Somalia is particularly difficult because most of the people in rural areas are nomadic. To increase our knowledge of agriculture in Somalia the Bank has recently made a comprehensive review of the sector. In addition to these sectors, we plan to support the Government-s industrial development efforts (and assist in the formulation of an industrial development policy) through our country economic work and future industrial development finance projects. We also plan to continue assistance to the water supply and energy sectors. 20. Somalia's statistical service lacks the capacity to fulfill the data needs of development programs. The Bank's operations have experienced difficulties in obtaining statistical data. We have therefore included funds for strengthening the Central Statistical Department in the Ministry of National Planning under the Agricultural Extension and Farm Management Training Project.  - 7 - 21. To facilitate the development and implementation of the Associa- tion's growing operational program in Somalia, we established a one-man resident mission in 1977. The mission represents the Bank Group in its contacts with the Government, thus facilitating an efficient and smooth day-to-day working relationship, and assists in coordination of cofinancing efforts. The Bank's first Resident Representative completed his term in July 1980 and a new Resident Representative arrived in Somalia in October 1980. In addition, two Bank staff members have been seconded to the Project Implementa- tion Unit (para. 18). PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR Objectives, Policy and Strategy 22. Before the 1969 revolution, priority was accorded to secondary education for a selected minority. Since that date the main emphasis has been put on primary and adult education, to enable the maximum numbers of people to profit from education and thereby participate more fully in social and economic activities. In 1975, compulsory but free primary education was introduced, with the objective of attaining universal primary education (UPE) as quickly as possible. Enrollments increased rapidly, not only in primary schools but also in secondary schools. To widen educational opportunities at the primary level, with the available resources, the Government reduced the length of the primary cycle from eight to six years and reduced the length of the primary teacher training course from two years to one year. However, the Government has realized that the quality of school leavers has deteriorated over the last few years. Accordingly, beginning with the 1980-81 school year, the primary cycle is again eight years long. The primary teacher training course has already been increased to two years again. As for adult education, a vigorous drive towards universal literacy began in 1974-1975, when all schools were closed and all teachers, assisted by national service personnel, were sent into the countryside to give literacy training to adults. Well over a million adults were enrolled in literacy classes, many of them in facilities built under a large, self-help construction program. Some 850 adult learning centers are presently operational. Following the 1974-75 year of school closure, the admission to grade 1 of primary education rapidly increased to 134,000 from the 1973-74 figure of 24,000. This figure represented 140% of the estimated seven-year-olds in the population; obviously, most of the proper age cohort as well as a large number of overage children began primary school in 1974. In the three subsequent years, the initial enrollment was a similar figure, representing only seven-year-olds, for the most part. At the beginning of the 1980-81 school year, however, the figure is expected to jump again, since the Government has recently decided to lower the age of entry from seven to six years. In September 1980, therefore, most of the seven-year olds but also about 65% of the six-year-olds entered school. 23. The number of primary school leavers rose from 7,600 in 1977 to an estimated 35,000 in 1980, causing heavy pressure on the Government to  - 8 - expand secondary school places. The output of the primary school system in 1979 has already produced a sudden increase in enrollments in the first form of general secondary schools (from 3,000 to 5,500) and it is estimated that a further increase to 8,000 will take place in 1980 when the impact of the 1975 admissions to the first grade will be felt. Admissions in secondary level education are then expected to fall somewhat until 1985-1987. The Government has indicated that, in the future, 20% of the number of primary school leavers will be terminated, and 80% will be enrolled in post primary education, as follows: - in general secondary schools 24% - in technical secondary schools 14% - in vocational education 42% In 1978, of the 10,300 children completing primary school, 31% were terminated with the balance enrolled as follows: - entering general secondary school 53% - entering technical secondary school 8% - entering vocational school 8% From these figures it is evident that the Government will have considerable difficulty in implementing its policy for post-primary enrollments. Signifi- cantly, over twice as many students as intended proceeded to general secondary education, and only about a quarter of the number intended proceeded to technical and vocational education. Although the Government still publicly adheres to its stated policy, there seems to be a tacit understanding within the Government that general secondary school enrollments will be expanded as quickly as resources permit and that the targets of 14% and 42%, respectively for technical education and vocational training, are quite unrealistic targets in view of the high capital costs involved and the shortage of qualified and well trained technical and vocational teachers. Consequently, an uncontrolled expansion of general secondary school enrollments can be anticipated, absorb- ing resources which might be better applied to industrial education. 24. Substantial conceptual uncertainty remains with regard to producing an appropriate balance between general and specialized education; and the ideal speed by which educational institutions ought to expand. However, results from the manpower survey of private and public employers would suggest that identified shortages of craftsmen and technicians were currently unmet. Because the Government-s de facto policy on post-primary education appears to be at variance with its stated intentions, future expansion within post-primary subsectors should receive closer attention than it has in the past. The Government, moreover, should be encouraged in the short term to proceed with the expansion of general secondary education in accordance with its ability to finance such expansion and should expand only based on identified manpower needs (see para. 62).  - 9 - The Organization and Administration of the Education System 25. The MOE and the Ministry of Culture and Higher Education (MCHE) share responsibility for the formal education system and also for most non- formal education. The MOE is responsible for primary, secondary, technical and adult education as well as for primary teacher training, and to a certain extent, vocational training. Education planning is centralized, but the Government is in the process of delegating greater responsibility to the sixteen regional authorities. The MCHE is responsible for university level education, secondary teacher training, libraries, museums and other cultural institutions. In addition to these two ministries, several other ministries conduct limited training in specialized areas. The Formal Education System 26. Primary education has been increased to eight years in 1980-1981. The medium of instruction is Somali. In 1978/79 there were nearly 264,000 students and about 8,100 teachers giving a student-teacher ratio of 32:1 which numerically is fairly generous, but in view of the relatively young, inexperi- enced and marginally trained teaching force, is acceptable until the teachers become more mature and experienced. 27. Primary school enrollments represented only 13% of the age group in 1973-1974 but increased to about 44% in 1978-1979. Progression rates are about 75%, which is average for a developing country. The projected number of children enrolled in primary education at the end of the next decade represents only about 65% of the estimated age group at that time. This is a reasonable goal, since it would be unfeasible to attempt to enroll a higher proportion, given Somalia-s present situation with respect to the nomadic population. Participation rates reflect a range from almost 100% around Mogadishu to 11% in remote inland areas. 28. The Government provides pupils with textbooks printed by the State Printing Agency (SPA). Pupils buy their own exercise books, pens, pencils, and other equipment. No provision is made for teacher aids other than chalk. Most rooms have a chalkboard, and teaching is confined to using the chalkboard and giving information orally, to supplement that in the textbooks. The lack of appropriate teaching aids is a serious handicap to effective teaching. Primary school facilities vary from the large, well-constructed multishift town schools to the small mud and wattle buildings in rural areas. Many of the smaller schools lack facilities for the full cycle of primary education. Responsibility for providing physical facilities is shared between the Govern- ment and local communities (who provide self-help). 29. Secondary Education. In 1978/79 there were 36 general secondary schools in Somalia enrolling 11,000 students with 700 teachers. The student/ teacher ratio of 16:1 was too low and uneconomic. However, the Government has informed us that the student/teacher ratio has increased to about 24:1 and has assured us that the level will be maintained at 24:1 at least (see para. 60). Girls represent 24% of the enrollment. The total enrollment of 11,000 students  - 10 - represents 3% of the relevant age group. The rate of promotion from primary to secondary education has increased rapidly in recent years, with 53% of primary school leavers being promoted to secondary education in 1978-1979. The Government hopes to reduce this promotion rate to 40% by 1980 and to 24% in subsequent years. On the basis of this projection, there would be a trebling of enrollments from 1978-1979 to 1989-1990, from 11,000 to 33,000. Surplus of secondary school graduates is likely to occur during the early 1980s and measures should be taken to relate enrollments to manpower require- ments and financial ability (see para. 62). 30. Quantitative efficiency at the secondary level is fairly high. Completion rates are close to 70%, and the general secondary examination pass rate in 1977 was 85% for boys and 80% for girls. The distribution of secondary level students between general and technical courses indicates the strong preference for general secondary schools in spite of the Government's stated policy to orient over twice as many students toward technical and vocational education than to general education. General secondary schools only offer arts and sciences courses. Because of poorly trained science teachers, science teaching is largely ineffective. Community self-help and Government- built schools make no provision for practical courses in wood and metal work, home economics or arts and crafts, and it is not now Government policy to do so, though such facilities were provided in the 21 secondary schools built under the IDA assisted First and Second Education Projects. The desired development of technical and vocational training will be impossible without an extensive increase in the number of teachers and facilities. The increased numbers of pupils leaving primary school will inevitably result in more pressure for more places in secondary schools. The Government's inability to provide more places in technical secondary and vocational education is already resulting in an over-high proportion entering general secondary schools. 31. The Government is endeavoring to implement a policy of mass educa- tion, with 80% of children continuing some form of education or training after primary level. Such a policy has considerable financial implications which appears not to have been assessed by the Government's planners, but it is becoming clearer to them that to maintain a high quality of post-primary education/training is beyond Government's present resources. Consequently, the more expensive types of education and training such as science, commerce, and industrial arts teaching, are receiving only marginal attention relative to academic subjects. As evidenced by examination results, the teaching of academic subjects is of a satisfactory standard, but teaching in other areas is of only marginal value. 32. Teacher education. The Halane Primary Teachers' College in Mogadishu, was opened in 1976 and is the country's only primary teacher training college. Enrollment in 1978-79 was 2,856 students in two-year courses after primary level. To meet the urgent need for primary teachers, Halane operated two one-year accelerated courses in 1976-77 and 1977-78 and graduated about 4,000 students, and in addition, one-year courses in temporary accommodations were held in 1972 and 1975 which together graduated a total of 2,200 students. These 6,200 teachers form the backbone of the 8,100 primary  - 11 - teacher training force. The balance is made up mostly of untrained primary and secondary school leavers. Halane's present capacity is sufficient to meet projected needs for primary school teachers. To improve the quality of primary teachers, the MOE has programmed a substantial number of upgrading courses, assistance for which is included in the proposed project. 33. Secondary school teachers are trained at the Lafole College of Education. The College is part of the university and is under the control of the MCHE. Originally operating a four-year course, of which one year was spent in teaching practice, it now gives only a two-year course with no teaching practice. Total enrollment is about 1,000, with an effective annual output of around 450 teachers a year. However, more recently output has dropped to about 275 teachers a year. Students are recruited from secondary school graduates who have completed national service and also from among employed primary school teachers. The experience of the latter group compensates to some extent for the lack of teaching practice. 34. Science subjects account for one quarter of the secondary school curriculum; yet half of Lafole's six laboratories are out of use due to lack of supplies and the other three are far from satisfactory because of damaged equipment. Consumable materials for the chemistry laboratory are lacking and science is apparently taught in classrooms most of the time. The quality of teachers has also deteriorated. Thus, there is an urgent need to improve the quality of teaching and in addition to develop the college on better administrative and organizational foundations, assistance for which is included in the proposed project. 35. Vocational, technical and commercial education. Industrial training is taught in four three-year and six four-year technical schools, together enrolling about 3000 students. Additionally, there are six vocational train- ing institutions together enrolling 1,500 students, administered by various Government departments. Apart from a new vocational training center in Mogadishu, to be financed by the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), there are no clear plans for the development of industrial training at the craftsman- technician levels. Due to a combination of poorly equipped workshops and a shortage of good technical teachers, the quality of training is generally below a desirable level. An exception to this generalization is the vocational training institute at Burao, developed with assistance from the FRG, where technical assistance in the form of a well qualified team from Germany has developed an institute which sets a standard for the rest of Somalia. 36. Despite the establishment of a National Commission for Technical and Vocational Training, there is a lack of overall coordination of the various technical and vocational institutes operated by several different ministries. This lack of coordination contributes to the unplanned expansion of vocational training, a position which is in urgent need of rectification through the preparation of a well-coordinated plan for technical and voca- tional training. Technical assistance for this purpose is provided under the project.  - 12 - 37. Technical teacher training takes place at the Technical Teacher Education College (TTEC) in Mogadishu, which is receiving assistance from UNESCO and ILO. The college requires new premises, substantial re-equipment, and improved management. The two-year courses, because of the sub-standard condition of the workshops, are largely of a theoretical nature and do not give the students the essential manual skill training required for teachers of industrial subjects. The trainees receive no teaching practice during the course. Technical teacher training at TTEC started in 1978, and the first class of 180 students graduated in 1980. In view of the Government's slow development of technical and vocational education, the graduate output is numerically adequate for the foreseeable future. 38. Commercial and Business education and training are carried out largely at the Somali Institute of Development Administration and Management (SIDAM). Founded in 1965, it is under the control of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and provides in-service training mainly to civil servants. The SIDAM's major problem in maintaining existing courses and planning needed new courses is to obtain and retain qualified teaching staff. The present full-time establishment is seriously understrength, and SIDAM must therefore rely heavily on part-time teachers. This is an undesirable situation which is likely to continue in view of the attractive employment opportunities avail- able in the oil producing neighboring countries. In view of the demand for commercially trained personnel and their important role in Somalia's develop- ment, a comprehensive plan for the orderly development of this educational sub-sector is urgently needed. 39. Higher education. The National University established in 1956 as an institution of higher education in economics and law, became in 1963 a University Institute, providing the full range of requirements for the first two years of study towards degrees in law, economics and political science. The degrees were granted after two additional years of studies mostly in Padua, Italy. In 1970, the National University was granted legal authority to confer degrees. There are twelve faculties at present: Geology, Engineer- ing, Medicine, Veterinary, Law, Economics, Commerce, Chemistry, Agriculture, Journalism, Languages, and Education. Entrance is by competitive examination. The medium of instruction is Italian and/or English, depending largely on the staff. The 1979 enrollment was about 3,000 students. The Nonformal Education System 40. The MOE's Department of Nonformal Education is responsible for nonformal programs which include adult education and women's and community training. In 1974-75 the Department conducted a mass literacy campaign, which according to government figures, increased the literacy rate among adults from 5% to over 50%. 41. Adult education. Some 850 centers provide adult nonformal education to about 27,000 students. The basic three-year program is designed to be functionally equivalent to full-time primary education. The IDA assisted Third Education Project included the provision of seven regional centers as resource centers to provide organization, supervision and materials distribu- tion for the above adult learning groups.  - 13 - 42. A Government agency reporting directly to the Presidency operates crash agricultural training programs on seven large scale farms with a total cultivated area of about 20,000 hectares. The objective is to retrain un- employed youth from urban and nomadic areas as farmers. The farms pre- sently have about 7,000 trainees including about 2,000 women with a training program that normally lasts one year. The IDA assisted Second Education Project included provision for Nomadic Training Centers (NTCs) and Community Education Centers (CECs) to help serve the needs of nomads and relocated nomadic populations in agricultural areas. These centers are expected to be completed shortly. 43. The MOE, with financial assistance from local authorities and the Ministry of the Interior, operates 51 centers for women's education, with some 3,700 attending. The National Women-s Center in Mogadiscio provides a six-month course to train staff for these centers in crafts, home economics, nutrition and child-care. The Center also trains home economics teachers for primary schools. No assistance is provided in this proposed project since it is being supported by other bilateral assistance. Financing Education Development 44. Recurrent Expenditure. The MOE is responsible for financing the major part of education and training. Funds for university education and some specialized training are channelled through the MCHE and certain other ministries. Education in Somalia is generally provided free at all levels and some training institutions provide a monthly allowance to students. The major form of direct financial contribution to education is through self-help construction of primary school classrooms by local communities. 45. Between 1969 and 1974, the recurrent expenditures of the MOE and the MCHE together were about 7% of the Central Government's total recurrent expenditure in that period. As a result of the increased emphasis given to the sector and the rapid total growth in enrollments since 1974, the percent- age has been increasing rapidly, e.g., in 1977, education expenditures reached 15.6% of the Government's recurrent expenses as compared to only 7.5% in 1973. Between 1975 and 1978, recurrent expenditures in nominal terms of the MOE and the MCHE have more than doubled. The share of these two Ministries in the total Government ordinary expenditures (11.0% in 1978) is still sub- stantially lower than in most other East African countries where recurrent expenditures on education absorb more than 20% of the budget. Based on MOE staff projections of school enrollment to 1986, the MOE's recurrent expendi- ture is estimated to grow at an average of 8% p.a. in real terms while that of the MCHE is expected to increase at an average rate of 10% p.a. 46. Capital Expenditures. According to recent estimates, capital expenditures under the FYDP amounted to So.Sh. 4.3 billion with So.Sh. 310 million allocated to the MCHE. Over the last four years, the MOE spent an average of So.Sh. 29 million (US$4.5 million equivalent) in investment proj- ects in primary, secondary and technical/vocational education. The IDA assisted Second and Third Education Projects were the principal externally  - 14 - assisted projects. Total Government domestic development expenditures in education (MOE and MCHE) fluctuated between 8.5% and 13.5% of total domestic development expenditures. In addition, contributions to capital formation as noted previously are made by the population through self-help schemes. 47. Future Perspectives. The current Government policy in Somalia continues to give education high priority and it is likely that the share of education in Central Government expenditures may regain the levels of 1976. Recurrent expenditures are expected to grow steadily in future years because of increased enrollments partially attributable to the facilities provided. However, the level of future development expenditure will depend basically on the availability of external assistance which is usually linked to new development projects. Assuming that total Government expenditures grow at about 5% p.a. in real terms and that the share of education expenditures remains at about 12% of the total, then total education expenditures should amount to about So.Sh. 275 million in 1986. This amount would permit the expansion of the education system at the projected rates which would fall within the Government's financing capacity. Role of the Bank in Somali Education 48. Past experience. IDA assistance has been provided to three educa- tion projects for Somalia. The first project (Credit 247-SO, signed June 3, 1971 for an amount of US$3.3 million and successfully completed September 30, 1976) was designed mainly to (a) improve the quality of technical education; (b) diversify the curricula in general secondary schools; (c) increase the enrollment capacities of secondary schools, two technical institutes and the primary teacher training section of the Lafole College of Education (which now has been moved to Halane Primary Teachers Training School); and (d) develop a local capacity for design and implementation of school facilities. 49. The second project (Credit 511-SO, signed September 19, 1974, for an amount of US$8.0 million) assisted by (a) supporting the Government s policy to promote basic education and reduce illiteracy by establishing an additional primary teacher training college and an Academy of Somali Studies; (b) enabling additional secondary schools to offer the diversified curricula introduced in the first project; and (c) introducing Nomadic Training Centers. Implementation progress is now basically satisfactory; however, delays have occurred due to, inter alia, the recent war and the project is now expected to be completed and fully disbursed by March 31, 1981, nine months beyond the original June 30, 1980 Closing Date. 50. The third project (Credit 738-SO, signed September 30, 1977 for an amount of US$8.0 million) gave major support to the first and second education projects by expanding the State Printing Agency to ensure the timely printing of an adequate supply of school textbooks and by reinforcing the MOE's Curriculum Development Center. The project also includes (a) a new Livestock and Forestry School; (b) a new Health Personnel Training Institute; (c) a new School of Nursing and renovation to, and provision for equipment and technical assistance for, the National Trade Testing and Training Center.  - 15 - Finally, to provide a base for future planning, the project included provision for technical assistance for a manpower survey. Implementation progress although slightly delayed, is basically satisfactory. 51. Lessons Learned. A completion report was prepared in October 1976 to evaluate the First Education Project. It concluded that overall, the project had been successful, especially with regard to the establishment of new Project Implementation and School Design Units which were progressively staffed with qualified Somalis as expatriate advisors were phased out. The report's main reservation was whether the diversified curriculum introduced into several secondary schools by the project was really an important educa- tional objective. The introduction of industrial arts subjects into the schools had been less than successful because of a lack of craft subject teachers and also because of student resistance to such subjects at the expense of academic subjects, success in which is apparently the key to advancing up the educational ladder. This problem has continued in the general secondary schools being assisted in the second education project to such an extent that the Government has abandoned, at least temporarily, the teaching of industrial subjects. Therefore, based on previous experience, the diversified curriculum is not included in the new general secondary schools provided in the proposed project. However, the project provides design of a coordinated Program for vocational training as the basis for future investment. 52. Future strategy. The Government's strategy for primary education is to attain UPE as quickly as resources will allow. In 1978-79, about 44% of the estimated age group attended primary school; in view of the nomadic nature of the population it is unlikely that even though attendance at primary schools is compulsory, the Government will be able to enroll much more than 60% of the total age group at any one time. Consequently, for practical purposes, about 75% of the realistic target had been attained in 1978-79. 53. Rapidly increasing enrollments have occurred in general secondary schools and the university, with the inevitable lowering of standards. The Bank Group assistance to the education and training sector has an important role to play in helping to improve the quality of education, particularly by encouraging improved teacher training and in directing investment in education and training into those areas where skilled manpower shortages are now evident at present, in the industrial and commercial sectors. The Bank Group should continue to use its influence to convince the Government to develop appropriate education and training facilities as part of comprehensive and well executed plans. For this reason, the proposed project includes a pre-investment study which would provide technical assistance to help in preparing a vocational technical plan. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 54. A report entitled "Staff Appraisal Report, Fourth Education Project" (No. 3059-SO) dated December 12, 1980 is being distributed separately. A  - 16 - Credit and Project Summary appears at the beginning of this report and a Supplementary Project Data Sheet is given in Annex III. The Project was prepared by the Government with the assistance of UNESCO and appraised by an IDA mission in February 1980. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. from December 1 to December 5, 1980. The Somali delegation was headed by Mr. Mohamed Burale Ismail, the Minister of Labor and Social Affairs. Project Objectives 55. The proposed Project covers a five-year program (1981 to 1986). It is designed to improve the quality and efficiency of teaching in primary and secondary schools by upgrading facilities for the pre-service and in-service training of teachers and to provide more equitable opportunities for secondary education to those rural areas devoid of secondary schools. Because of Somalia's acute shortage of managers, accountants, office workers and related skilled personnel, the project aims to alleviate this shortage by helping to provide training facilities and technical assistance for appropriate long-term planning of these manpower requirements. The Project also aims to assist the Government to develop a plan for a more efficient civil service system. Project Components 56. Primary Teacher Training Resource Centers (PTTRC's). The component would improve the quality of primary teachers through in-service training opportunities at five proposed resource centers to be established at existing general secondary schools at Baidoa, Burao, Qoryolei, Dusa Mareb, and Kismayo. These centers would cover fourteen of the sixteen regions in the country and would be supervised and controlled by inspectors of the Regional Education Offices. The remaining two regions are covered by existing Government arrange- ments. The proposed project component will include additional facilities such as a teaching materials production unit and storage, furniture and equipment to the existing schools. Incremental operating costs for the in-service training for teacher upgrading are also included in the proposed project and would cover, for a period of five years: (a) payments to secondary school teachers and supporting staff to compensate for additional duties in operating courses during normal vacation periods; (b) a per diem for each course participant to cover transport and subsistence; and (c) consumable materials for use in the courses. 57. Lafole College of Education. It is Somalia's only secondary teacher training college. Incorporated in the college is a textbook production center which is the only source of Somali language textbooks for college students. The college needs science and visual aids equipment as well as some refur- bishing and reequipping of laboratories and classrooms, all of which is included in the proposed project. The project would also assist the textbook production center in acquiring printing machinery and paper. 58. Technical assistance specialists are needed to assist and advise the Dean in the operation of the various sections of the college. Consequently, provision for two man-years of specialists services has been included in the  - 17 - project so that four persons each for six months could be appointed to advise the Dean on: (a) administration, general management, and associated academic matters; and (b) organization of maintenance for the college; and (c) cater- ing arrangements for boarding students. 59. Due to the rapid increase in enrollments in general secondary schools (from 4,900 to 11,000 in the seven year period 1972-1978), the training of teachers was cut from four to two years, and enrollments at Lafole increased correspondingly. Present enrollments are about 1,000 with an output of about 450 p.a., which is unnecessarily large given feasible and projected enrollments in general secondary schools. An annual output of 150 graduates would probably be ample to meet the needs. Therefore, assurance has been sought that the intake will be gradually reduced in order to stabilize output at about 150 p.a. (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.07(c). 60. Quality improvement is necessary. The present two-year intensive course is particularly deficient in two respects, i.e., science teaching and student teaching practice. Accordingly, assurances have been obtained that the course will be increased to three years for the academic year starting in 1983/84, more science and practice teaching will be included in the curriculum, and intake will be reduced to prevent an oversupply of secondary teachers and thus permit the student teacher ratio to be maintained at the current level of about 24:1 (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.07(a) and (b)). 61. General Secondary Schools. The proposed project includes provisions for the construction of four new and additions to ten existing general secon- dary schools. These additions would provide more equitable opportunities for secondary education in remote rural areas. Two of the four new schools would be two-stream, each with an enrollment of 288 students and two would have one-stream enrolling 144 students. They would be sited at settlements which have been developed following the 1975 drought and in areas where no secondary schools exist. 62. The ten existing general secondary schools have been built during the last four years by community effort with Government aid and supervision. The general quality of construction and furniture is good, but equipment and library books are almost non-existent and some schools need additional science laboratories and furniture which is included in the proposed project. The enrollment capacity of these ten schools is 3,300 students. Since a major expansion of the general secondary system ought to proceed with caution, the Government will relate growth in the general secondary school system to its ability to finance such expansion and expand only on the basis of identi- fied manpower needs (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.06). The compliance will be closely monitored during supervision. 63. The Somali Institute of Development Administration and Management (SIDAM) provides training in clerical and secretarial skills, accounting, management and administration mainly for public sector employees. 20 man-years of technical assistance have been included in the proposed project in order to provide the core of experienced teachers and commercial administrative  - 18 - educators necessary to optimize the Institute's efficiency. The organization selected for this task would initially carry out a survey at SIDAM to determine the most appropriate type of expertise required to provide maximum assistance and to prepare a time schedule of their operations in Somalia. The survey to be carried out would include recommendation for further technical assistance for possible inclusion in future projects for SIDAM. The contract for tech- nical assistance would be made with an appropriately experienced institute or college acceptable to the Association by not later than March 31, 1982 to supply on a team basis the technical assistance included in the Project. The selection including terms and conditions would be subject to agreement by the Association (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.08). 64. Pre-Investment, Evaluation and Civil Service Employment Studies. Technical and vocational as well as management and commercial education all need developing to meet the country's need for skilled manpower. The proposed project includes provision for technical assistance to help in preparing the necessary plans. A two-man team would be required for six months to prepare a technical/vocational plan and another two-man team for three months for the management/commercial plan. Each team would review and evaluate relevant training already being offered in Somalia, and in the light of projected skilled manpower needs specified in manpower study carried out under the Third Education Project and updated from time to time by Somali Government, would prepare a development plan with related overall capital and recurrent costs. 65. There is an urgent need for a thorough overhaul of public employment and personnel policies in Somalia. To assist the Government to design an efficient system, the proposed project includes a study for the development of a program for public employment. The study would review the present system, investigate its shortcomings, and make recommendations for improvements in organizational structure and in recruitment, deployment, promotion and remu- neration of the public servants. One or more international experts would be recruited to assist in preparation of the study which will be completed not later than December 31, 1982. The study would be carried out on terms of reference acceptable to the Association and the Government would consult the Association on the findings and recommendations of the study with a view to implementing a mutually agreed program to improve public employment (draft Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.09). Project Cost Estimate 66. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$13.0 million equivalent, including duties and taxes (about US$0.3 million equivalent). The cost of foreign exchange components is estimated at US$9.2 million or 72% of the net project cost. The high foreign cost reflects the need for import- ing most building materials, furniture and equipment, and the large technical assistance component. Costs for civil works, furniture and equipment and vehicles are based on results of recent competitive bidding and contract awards in the IDA assisted Second and Third Education Projects and other similar Government projects. Average building cost per square meter for  - 19 - general secondary schools (October 1980) is about US$225 equivalent in the proximity of Mogadishu and about US$275 in remote areas. This is reasonable in comparison with similar institutions in other Eastern African countries. Technical assistance is estimated on an average, at US$77,000 equivalent per man-year. 67. All items specifically imported for the proposed project would be exempt from duties and taxes. However, taxes may be paid on items purchased through the National Agency for Building Materials. For physical contingencies, 10% has been added to the base cost of civil works and 5% to the base costs of all other project components. Price increase from the base cost (October 1980) have been applied in accordance with the implementation schedule at an average of about 8% a year for foreign items and 20% for local items. Financing Plan 68. The proposed IDA credit of SDR 8.0 million (US$10.2 million) equiva- lent will finance 78% of the total Project cost or about 80% of the net Project cost. This includes US$1 million local cost financing (about 8% of Project cost) which is justified in view of the country's poverty (see para 16). The Government will cover the remaining 22% of total Project cost. The financing plan is outlined below: Source US$ Million Foreign Local Total % of Total IDA 9.2 1.0 10.2 78 Government - 2.8 2.8 22 Total 9.2 3.8 13.0 100 Of which taxes 0.3 Total (net of taxes) 12.7 69. The Government's total contribution of So.Sh. 17.6 million is spread over a period of six years with a maximum contribution of So.Sh. 3.5 million (including So.Sh. 0.3 million of local taxes), which is within its financial capacity. Recurrent costs generated by the proposed project are estimated at about US$1.0 million equivalent p.a., in 1980 prices, or about 3% of the estimated total recurrent cost of education in 1986. Implementation 70. The proposed project would be implemented in about six years, including six months for finalization of accounts and withdrawals. Project completion is expected by September 30, 1986 with a Closing Date of March 31, 1987. The implementation schedule is based upon experience derived from the previous three IDA-assisted education projects. The Project and School Design Units established for the implementation of the First, Second and Third IDA assisted Education Projects would be responsible for the implementation and the financial and administrative control of the proposed project. Any appointments to the position of project director and architect would be on terms and conditions including qualifications and experience satisfactory to Association (draft Development Credit, Section 3.02(b)).  - 20 - 71. The Project and School Design Units would be responsible for the design and supervision of construction of all project institutions. Standard plans and construction documents developed for the First, Second and Third Education Projects would be utilized to the maximum extent possible. The strength of the Units professional staff, which is being increased with four additional site supervisors, is adequate to implement the proposed project. The construction industry consists of about 50 private construction firms which have been approved to compete for Government contracts. Some 40 of them are located in Mogadishu. Government buildings are sometimes built by the MPWs departmental forces and each region has such departmental forces which assist local self-help schemes. There are no foreign contracting firms in Somalia and from past experience it is unlikely that foreign firms would bid for the construction work in the proposed project. Procurement 72. Contracts for civil works, construction materials, furniture, equipment and vehicles totalling about US$8.0 million equivalent including contingencies would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with the Bank Group's guidelines for procurement, except as follows: (a) civil works contracts estimated to cost less than US$250,000 equivalent each; (b) furniture, equipment, vehicles and construc- tion material contracts costing less than US$50,000 equivalent each; and (c) local transportation services for furniture and equipment. These (a, b, and c) would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally in accordance with local procedures acceptable to the Association. The aggregate value of these contracts is estimated at about US$1.2 million equivalent, including contingencies. Sketch designs, draft tender documents, and master lists of imported building materials, furniture, equipment and vehicles indicating proposed grouping and cost estimates, would be reviewed by the Association. Items would be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage competitive bidding and to permit bulk procurement. Review of tender evaluation documents prior to award would be required only for con- tracts above US$250,000 equivalent each for civil works and US$50,000 equivalent each for imported building materials, furniture, equipment, vehicles and transportation. Disbursements 73. Disbursements would be on the basis of: (a) 60% of civil works; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures or 60% of local expenditures for building materials; (c) 100% of foreign expenditures or 80% of local expenditures for furniture, equipment, vehicles and local transport services; (d) 100% of foreign and80% of local expenditures for technical assistance; and (e) 50% of the total cost of in-service training and project administration. 74. All disbursements would be fully documented except for local ex- penditures for: (a) civil works by force account; (b) project administration; (c) in-service training; and (d) local transportation of furniture and equip- ment to school sites. Disbursements for these items would be made against statements of expenditure documentation for which would not be submitted for review, but would be retained by the Borrower and available for inspection by  - 21 - the Association during project supervision. The Government would provide, before the beginning of each Somali fiscal year, a work program and budget, satisfactory to the Association for work to be carried out by force account methods, project administration, the in-service primary teacher training program and for local transportation for furniture and equipment. Based upon experience in previous education projects, the Unit has satisfactory institu- tional capacity to use the statement-of-expenditure procedure. 75. Auditing would be required on an annual basis for all expenditures financed under this project and, in particular, for work carried out by departmental forces (force account), operational expenses for project admin- istration and in-service training, and local transportation of furniture and equipment to school sites. Auditing would be performed by auditors acceptable to the Association, applying satisfactory auditing procedures (Development Credit Agreement, Section 4.01(b)). Benefits 76. The principal benefit of the proposed project is expected to be an improvement in the quality of training of primary and secondary teachers. The five resource centers included in the project would substantially improve the teaching ability of previously undertrained teachers in elementary science and in the use of teaching aids. Furthermore, the devolution of in-service training to regional centers (a part of the gradual process of decentralizing control of the educational system) would make education more responsive to local needs and should improve its relevance. The equipment and furniture to be provided under the proposed project to the Lafole College would support a much improved standard of secondary teacher training. 77. The proposed project's assistance to ten existing general secondary schools would enable these schools to teach the basics of biological and physical sciences, thus preparing students for continued education in fields where there is an identified shortage of skilled manpower. The four new general secondary schools, each to be in a settlement where such schools do not now exist, would help alleviate inequality in educational opportunities in the rural areas and help school leavers find employment. 78. The proposed assistance to the Somali Institute of Development Administration and Management would enable the Institute's courses to be operated with greatly improved efficiency and should result in an output of well-trained personnel in the areas of management administration and general office skills, areas in which Somalia is currently experiencing a critical shortage. Risks 79. There is no major risk. However, the possibility of rising educa- tional recurrent costs, caused by rapidly increasing primary and secondary school enrollments, may place the Government under such a financial strain that it will be unable to maintain quality standards which is an important objective of the Project. The Government has confirmed that it would maintain  - 22 - growth in the general secondary school system to estimated manpower needs and its ability to finance such expansion, and to maintain the current student teacher ratio of about 24:1 (draft Development Credit Agreement, Sections 3.06 and 3.07). As regards recurrent costs, the Project is designed to keep recurrent expenditures resulting from the Project to a minimum. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENT AND AUTHORITY 80. The draft Credit Agreement between the Somali Democratic Republic and the Association and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section 3 of Annex III to this report. 81. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 82. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Washington, D. C. February 3, 1981  - 23 - Annex 1 Page 1 of 4 Pagte I TABLE 3A SOMALIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET SOKALIA REFERENCE QROUPS (WEIGHTED AVFi/ACES LAtlD AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MtST RECENT ESTIATE) TOTAL 637.7 AGRICULTURAL 299. 2 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 h 1970 tb ESTIMATE lb AFRICA SOUTH OF SAPARA AFRICA SOTH OF SAPARA GNIP PER CAPITA (US$) 70.0 90-. 185 . e 260.0 868.0 ENERCY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 17.0 35.0 55.0 80.0 699.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS e/ POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 2.5 3.1 4. . URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 17.3 23.1 28.7 17.3 28.9 POPLLATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION iN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 6.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 17.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2170 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. RK. 3.0 4.0 5.0 27.4 61.7 PER Sq. EM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 7.0 9.0 11.0 92.6 126.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCEbT) 0-14 TRS. 43. 8 46.5 44.4 44.9 45.5 15-64 YRS. 53.5 51.6 53.6 52.2 51.6 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2. 0 2.4 7. ? 2.7 2. 7 URBAN 5.2 5.3 5.1 6.8 4.9 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOIUSAND) 57.0 47.0 48.0 47.4 46.8 CRUDE DFATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 29.0 23.0 20.0 19.6 16.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. - .. USEIS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD FRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 97.0 100.0 88.0 91.8 94.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIRElENTS) 85.0 85.0 88.0 90.2 92. 7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 73.0 72.0 70.0 53.0 53.0 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 45.0 45.0 41.0 18.4 15.6 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 43.0 36.0 31.0 27.7 21.3 YEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (TEARS) 36.0 40.0 43.0 45.3 50.1 INFANT MORTALITY aATE (PER THOUSAND) .. .. ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 15.0 33i0 * 23.2 31.0 URIAN ". 17.0 58.0 58.0 66.8 lAL .. 14.0 20.0 16.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 47.0 28.9 QtAH .. .. 77.0 - 67.0 RULAL .. .. 35.0 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 36567.0 23583.0 *- 30910.4 14508.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 6218.0 4112.0 *- 5793.2 3279.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 694.0 638.0 ,. 1198.9 1141.5 URtAN 131.0 158.0 NM. 5664.0 1104.0 AfISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. IIUSS ItG AVERACE SIZE OP BOUSENOLD TOTAL RUR.AL . 5. 5 A'SRAGE N1lBER Of PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL tIRBAN .. RURAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICM (PERCENT OF NWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. lURL .. .. . ..  Annex 1 -24 Page 2 of 4 TABLE 3A SOMALIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SWtET SCKALIA RERlNCE QOU?S CVtWITED AV