Uganda - Water Supply Engineering Project

Document of The World Bank FIL COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2952-UG REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FOR A WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING PROJECT February 11, 1981 This document bas a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its conteats may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Uganda Shilling (USh) US$1.00 = USh 7.5 USh 1.00 = US$0.13 SDR 1.00 = [US$1.25] GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS EAC - East African Community MLMWD - Ministry of Lands, Mineral and Water Development NCC - - National Consultative Council NWSC - National Water and Sewerage Corporation UNLF - Uganda National Liberation Front WDD - Water Development Department of MLMWD FISCAL YEAR Government July 1 - June 30 NWSC July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UGANDA WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY BORROWER: Republic of Uganda BENEFICIARIES: National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC) and Water Development Department (WDD) of the Ministry of Lands, Mineral and Water Development (MLMWD). AMOUNT: SDR 7.1 million (US$9.0 million) equivalent. TERMS: Standard. RELENDING TERMS: US$6.7 million equivalent of the credit proceeds would be passed on by the Government to NWSC as an equity contribution. The remaining $2.3 million would be allocated to WDD by the Government as incremental to WDD's budgetary allocation. PROJECT DESCRIPTION: The proposed project would assist the Government in completing preparation work for urban water supply investments in seven major towns. It would finance feasibility and detailed engineering studies for the rehabilitation and expansion of the water supply and sanitation facilities of these seven towns, a tariff study, a manpower training study, technical assistance, and provision of water meters, vehicles and staff houses. The main risk facing the project involves the Govern- ment's ability to develop an appropriate policy framework for the water supply sector. As the studies to be financed under the proposed project would provide the analysis needed to review the relevant policy issues, it is felt that this risk would be satisfactorily addressed. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Estimated Costs: Local Foreign Total ------ US$ Million ------ Feasibility and Engineering Studies (i) Kampala, Jinja, Entebbe 3.1 3.1 6.2 (ii) Masaka, Mbale, Mbarara, Tororo 1.5 1.3 2.8 Provision of Water Meters and Tools 0.3 1.0 1.3 Staff Housing and Offices 0.8 0.6 1.4 Tariff study 0.2 0.3 0.5 Manpower Studies & Training Program 0.3 0.3 0.6 Technical Assistance 0.6 0.6 1.2 Total Base Cost 6.8 7.2 14.0 Physical Contingencies 0.7 0.7 1.4 Price Contingencies 1.5 1.1 2.6 Total Project Cost 9.0 9.0 18.0 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total ------ US$ Million ------ IDA Credit 9.0 9.0 9.0 NWSC 6.3 - 6.3 Government 2.7 - 2.7 Total 18.0 9.0 18.0 (Net of Taxes and Duties) 3.2 9.0 12.2 Estimated Disbursements: FY1982 FY1983 FY1984 FY1985 -----------US$ Million------------- Annual 3.2 3.0 1.8 1.0 Cumulative 3.2 6.2 8.0 9.0 Rate of Return: Not applicable. Appraisal Report: No separate report.  REPORT AND RECOMNENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FOR A WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed water supply engineering credit to the Republic of Uganda for the equivalent of SDR 7.1 million (US$9.0 million) on standard IDA terms. US$6.7 million equivalent of the Credit proceeds would be passed on by the Government to the National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC) as an equity contribution. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. The last economic report on Uganda was circulated in June 1969 (Report No. AE-2). From 1971 to 1979, there was a hiatus in World Bank Group operations in Uganda. However, after the change in Government in early 1979 a number of missions have visited the country; their findings were incorporated in the President-s Report on the Reconstruction Credit (No. 983-UG) dated January 29, 1980. After the change of Government in early May of 1980, two more missions by Bank staff have visited Uganda; this report reflects their findings. In addition, an analysis of the situation of the Ugandan economy and its reconstruction needs was the subject of a report prepared by a team of experts under the auspices of the Commonwealth Secretariat. 2/ Background 3. Uganda, which in 1970 had one of the highest per capita incomes in Eastern Africa, experienced a decline in real GDP, estimated at about 1% per annum on average from the early 1970s through 1978. With population growth averaging more than 3% per annum, per capita GNP fell by about 25%. The decline was particularly severe in the modern sector, with the output of monetary agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction all having fallen. Only subsistence agriculture achieved some growth, as farmers turned away from the production of export cash crops (principally coffee, tea, cotton and tobacco) towards essential food crops. Real investment also fell sharply during the 1970s. 4. The decline in the modern sector of the economy was reflected in the changing structure of output. In the early 1970s, about 70% of GDP originated in the monetary economy; monetary agriculture accounted for some 24%; industry 11%; and modern tertiary sector activity about one-third. By 1978, it is estimated that the share of subsistence agriculture had increased from 27% to 1/ This section is essentially the same as that of the President's Report on the Uganda Technical Assistance Project (Report No. P-2900-UG) datd November 11, 1980. 2/ Commonwealth Secretariat, Fund for Technical Cooperation, The Rehabilitation of the Economy of Uganda; two volumes, London, June 1979.  - 2 - over one third and that the non-monetary economy accounted for nearly 40% of GDP. The output declines were largely attributable to the sudden expropriation of all foreign-owned business and the expulsion from Uganda of non-citizens of Asian origin. 5. The balance of payments was seriously affected by this deterioration. From 1970/71 to 1978, both exports and imports fell by over 55% in real terms. Uganda had formerly exported significant quantities of tea, tobacco, sugar and cotton, but production of these cash crops declined precipitously, leaving coffee as the only significant export crop. Coffee's share in export receipts increased from 53% in 1971 to over 90% in 1978, despite a decline in official coffee exports from 175,000 tons in 1971 to 113,000 tons in 1978. The cumula- tive balance of payments deficit for the period 1970 to 1978 amounted to over US$130 million, of which some US$100 million accumulated as unpaid arrears. Uganda experienced some respite from its balance of payments problems during the coffee price boom of 1976/77 when higher coffee export earnings permitted some relaxation of import controls: for a relatively brief period the country was able to import vehicles, spare parts, raw materials and consumer goods, and domestic manufacturing made a mild recovery. However, with the decline in coffee prices in 1978 the balance of payments again showed a large deficit. By the end of 1978, gross foreign exchange reserves covered less than 2 months import requirements and net foreign assets were only marginally positive. 6. In addition to declines in the real value of exports and imports, Uganda experienced a fall in net capital inflows. In 1971 and 1972, net official capital inflows were approximately US$30 million per year; by 1978 they had declined to US$12 million, implying a much greater decline in real terms. At the same time, outflows of short-term capital increased. However, a corollary of the decreasing level of external assistance flows to Uganda after 1971 was a correspondingly low level of external public debt; recorded external public debt outstanding rose from US$210 million at the end of 1972 to only US$270 million at the end of 1978. 1/ As a result, the ratio of Uganda's debt service to export proceeds fell to 5% in 1978; however, if payment arrears on external debt are added to debt service, this ratio would have been 8%. 7. Despite the contracting real economy, the Government's budgetary operations were strongly expansionist. Total expenditures increased from UShs 1.9 billion in 1970/71 to UShs 5.2 billion in 1976/77, while revenues only increased from UShs 1.3 billion to UShs 3.4 billion, and net foreign borrowing actually decreased. Net domestic financing, almost entirely through the banking system, rose from a little over UShs 0.35 billion in 1970/71 to UShs 1.6 billion in 1976/77. This heavy deficit financing by the Government was the major cause of the nearly six-fold increase in the money supply between 1971 and 1978. While the improvement in coffee prices boosted Government revenues significantly and reduced the recourse to deficit financ- ing in 1977/78, the deficit and Government borrowing from the banking system both rose sharply again in 1978/79. 1/ The World Bank Group accounted for 21% of total debt outstanding at the end of 1978, the USSR for 20%, and the UK for 12%.  8. Because of the severe shortfalls in domestic production and the scarcity of imports, coupled with heavy Government deficit spending and resultant monetary expansion, inflation was rampant. The official low-income consumer price index (which may actually understate true price inflation) rose at an average annual rate of 36% from 1970 to 1978. Despite this high infla- tion rate, the official minimum wage was increased only 54% over these years; civil service salaries also fell sharply in real terms. Recent Developments 9. Since the liberation in early 1979, there has been little improve- ment in Uganda's economic situation. Economic development during the past two years has suffered from the unsettled political conditions of the country. The constructive spirit present at the meeting of the Uganda National Libera- tion Front (UNLF) held in Moshi in March of 1979 evaporated gradually as Governments changed; the erosion of the political consensus progressively reduced the decision-making capability of the Government. Until recently, maintenance of law and order and security continued to be a subject of great concern. 10. Production trends in 1979 were not encouraging. Agricultural output declined over 4%, attributable in part to adverse weather conditions. There may have been a slight increase in subsistence agricultural production which, however, would be an indication of the continued disruptions in the monetized sector of the economy. Output of the manufacturing sector stagnated; capacity utilization was estimated to have been about 20% on average. A hopeful aspect was the arrival of the late but adequate rain in the spring which eased the problem of food supplies, except for the northern and northeastern regions which continued to depend on food shipments to alleviate famine conditions. Another hopeful aspect was the slow beginning of the rehabilitation of import- ant agricultural processing facilities which promises to bring capacity utilization to higher levels. 11. It was hoped that the UNLF Government would bring to a halt the fiscal mismanagement of the Amin period. The 1979/80 budget, which was finally presented to the National Consultative Council (NCC) on December 4, 1979, did imply a substantial improvement in fiscal performance. It promised to hold the overall deficit to only UShs 1.4 billion, of which UShs 0.6 billion was to be financed by the sale of government stocks outside the banking sector. The provisional outturn for 1979/80 reveals a dismal picture, however. Recurrent revenue fell UShs 632.0 million below the budget, while recurrent expenditures exceeded the budgeted level by almost UShs 1.0 billion. While development expenditures fell short of budget by UShs 640.0 million, foreign grants and loans plus domestic development revenue experienced an even larger shortfall of UShs 876.0 million. The result was a total deficit of UJShs 3,186.0 million, almost 2 1/2 times the budgetary forecast, which had to be financed entirely by borrowing from the Bank of Uganda. At a time when output was stagnating and imports declining, this monetary expansion was inflationary.  - 4 - 12. Attempts to arrest price increases through administrative controls have been largely ineffective. The black market or "magendo" economy has continued to spread and pervades all areas of the economy. Unfortunately, those few areas where price controls continue to be of some relevance happen to be of crucial significance: salaries to Government and public sector employees and prices paid to producers of Government-marketed export crops, particularly coffee. Second jobs or illicit incomes are essential for Government employees to survive. Coffee is being smuggled where possible or else there is a tendency to extend the cultivation of food crops, which can be sold at free market prices, at the expense of coffee. The unofficial exchange rate which ranges between 10 and 15 times the official parity of the Ugandan shilling is perhaps the best indication of the prevailing dis- tortions. A significant devaluation of the Ugandan shilling is essential if the economy is to be brought back on a course of progressive rehabilita- tion. The devaluation would have to be accompanied by appropriate increases in producer prices, effective measures to increase Government revenues, improved control over Government spending, and appropriate adjustments in the remuneration of public sector employees. 13. Political considerations, mainly concern over the possible impact of significant policy changes following the elections, kept the Government from taking long overdue economic policy decisions. The budget for 1980/81 shows major shortcomings in its attempt to deal with the critical issues of resource mobilization and expenditure control. Large increases are projected in recurrent revenues (50%), primarily in sales taxes, customs and excise revenues, and in external loans and grants (60% above the 1979/80 budget and more than five times the 1979/80 actual). However, little in the way of additional revenue measures is proposed; rather the revenue forecast relies entirely on a significant revival of the economy which is not likely without more determined management efforts by the Government. The expenditure side of the budget implies that the increase over 1979/80 actuals will be held to 16%. However, expenditure estimates do not make any provision for public sector wage and salary increases which could add UShs 300 to 400 million. The level of development spending, projected to be double the 1979/80 actual figure, is obviously dependent on the availability of aid; if aid is not forthcoming, the major part of the proposed public investment cannot be covered. The 1980/81 budget was prepared on short notice, with little analysis of the underlying economic situation; with little study of revenue prospects, and without the careful review of priorities that would be essential if the reconstruction effort is to make a real beginning in 1980/81. As yet, little effort has been devoted to dealing with the weaknesses in tax administration and expenditure control along the lines of the recommenda- tions made by IMF and Bank missions. 14. In 1979, exports increased by 19% over 1978 because both coffee export volume and price went up in the second half of the calendar year. Revenues were 30% higher for the year than had been forecast last September. The cautious attitude of the Bank of Uganda in allocating foreign exchange and the disruption of trade by the war during the first half of the year contributed to a decline in import values of 11% from the already low 1978 level, equivalent to at least 20% in real terms (compared to 1977, the decline  - 5 - was 30% in nominal terms and 50% in real terms). The level of 1979 imports was nowhere near the UShs 6 billion of imports which the Commonwealth Report indicated were essential for the first phase of the reconstruction period. While the growth of exports and especially the tight restrictions on imports brought about a large trade surplus, there was a very large deficit on capital account attributable mainly to large repayments of short-term trade credits. 15. For 1980, the Bank of Uganda produced a slightly more optimistic forecast. Export receipts were expected to increase only marginally over 1979, with no significant improvement in non-coffee exports such as cotton, tea, tobacco, copper or hides and skins. However, a substantial increase in nominal imports over the depressed levels of 1978 and 1979, about back to the 1977 level was anticipated. Gross aid disbursements in 1979 totalled only US$50 million equivalent, consisting of US$31 million in the form of grants and US$19 million in the form of loans. Net aid disbursements amounted to a mere US$25 million equivalent. The Bank of Uganda projected gross capital inflows of US$290 million for 1980, including US$50 million of private commer- cial loans and investments. This figure would seem optimistic since preli- minary reports show that total gross disbursements are not likely to be much above US$100 million equivalent. However, this figure does not include emergency food aid which will probably amount to an additional US$20 to $25 million. 16. Commitments of foreign assistance have fallen short of earlier expectations and the effective transfer of external assistance has clearly been disappointing and far short of even the most elementary requirements associated with the reconstruction process. Uncertainty about the political situation discouraged many donors from extending commitments and caused some to suspend the use of credits extended earlier, although some of the development assistance allocated to Uganda was diverted to meet the urgent requirements for humanitarian assistance in the Karamoja region. However, the dramatic shortfall in aid disbursements is not only a reflection of shortfalls in commitments, but is also due to the fact that the Government of Uganda had considerable problems absorbing available assistance effec- tively. Weaknesses of the planning machinery and the Government administra- tion and the shortage of well prepared projects had much to do with this. 17. The Government last year adopted a two-phase strategy to revive the economy. The first phase was designed to restore the production and sale through official channels of export cash crops (coffee, cotton, tea and tobacco) and re-establish vital Government services. The second phase covered a medium-term investment program directed at the rehabilitation of key productive sectors and the country's infrastructure to the level which prevailed in 1970. While the Government is still struggling with the first phase of this strategy and further progress would seem dependent on Government decisions in the exchange rate, fiscal, and price administration areas, the rehabilitation of critical productive facilities has made a slow beginning. Investment programs have been developed for the restoration of productive capacity of those sectors which provide significant foreign exchange earnings or savings, such as coffee, tea, sugar and cotton output and proces- sing. Technical assistance has been provided in some cases through joint  - 6 - ventures or management contracts with experienced international firms. The gradual restoration of output levels should in due course provide some relief both to the balance of payments and to the budget. It is now important to reinforce and extend these efforts into other areas of the economy, including the rehabilitation of the country's infrastructure. This will require strengthen- ing the Government's planning capability to take on the preparation of specific proposals in a more systematic fashion. 18. Notwithstanding the lack of well-prepared projects, it is obvious that the severe shortage of foreign exchange resources is seriously affecting the reconstruction program. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, overall economic performance is not expected to have improved over 1979. Imports will be far below the requirements for even the first six-month phase of the reconstruction process identified by the Commonwealth team; they would be more than UShs 1 billion below the minimum requirements estimated at the time of the appraisal of the Reconstruction Credit presented to the Executive Directors in January 1980. 19. Nevertheless, it is hoped that the recently installed Government will dispel the political uncertainties of the past and be able to mobilize the larger aid flows necessary to facilitate the step-up of reconstruction activities and investments. The first since 1962, general elections were held on December 10, 1980 bringing into power the Uganda People's Party (UPC) headed by former President Milton Obote. Although there were charges of election irregularities, it now appears that the other contesting parties will give support to the new Government. To date, the Government has concentrated on the task of reorganization and mending political fences. President Obote has selected the head of the former Military Commission, Mr. Paulo Muwanga, as Vice President and Minister of Defense. He has also, for the time being, retained the portfolios of Foreign Affairs and Finance. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 20. Bank Group operations in Uganda began with an IBRD loan of US$8.4 million for hydroelectric power development in 1961. Between 1967 and 1971 Uganda received seven IDA credits totalling US$48.0 million for projects in education, roads and agriculture (tea, tobacco and beef ranching). In addition, Uganda has benefitted from ten loans totalling US$244.8 million which have been extended for the development of the common services and development bank operated jointly by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda through their association in the former East African Community (EAC). IFC's only investment in Uganda, in a textile company, was sold to the Government in 1970. Annex II contains summary statements of Bank loans and IDA credits to Uganda and the EAC organizations as of November 30, 1980 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 21. There had been a hiatus in Bank Group operations in Uganda from 1971 until February 1980, when a Reconstruction Credit of US$72.5 million (including a participation of US$17.5 million by the Kingdom of the Nether- lands) and an EEC Special Action Credit of US$20.0 million were approved  - 7 - (Credits No. 983-UG and 54-UG); the Association is also acting as Administrator of a Can$ 3.0 million grant from the Government of Canada for the reconstruc- tion effort. Throughout the 1970s, the Bank Group continued to disburse funds against prior loans and credits. At present, only one of those Bank Group assisted projects, an education project, is still under implementation. The project, which experienced implementation problems even before the recent war, was adversely affected by the fighting and subsequent looting (see Annex II for details). 22. The Reconstruction Credit, which was signed last April was declared effective on May 1, 1980. Following the change in Government later that month, which was accompanied by a prolonged phase of uncertainty regarding the focus of political power, the Government agreed not to submit any withdrawal requests until we had had an opportunity to review jointly the prospects for the implementation of the reconstruction program. We wished to assure our- selves that the new Government would effectively carry on the reconstruction program and confirm the undertakings entered into by the previous Government. Subsequently, the Government acknowledged all past undertakings to the Bank Group and confirmed its intentions to carry out the reconstruction program described in the June 1979 Commonwealth report. We then agreed to resume disbursements under the Credit and under the associated EEC Special Action Credits and the Canadian grant, initially up to a total amount of US$25 million equivalent. Commitments in respect of this understanding are proceed- ing satisfactorily. Nevertheless, given the prevailing economic dislocation, in particular the pervasive black market, and given the Government's past unwillingness to introduce the necessary drastic reforms to bring the situation under control, we agreed with the Government that the use of these funds would be limited to specific items, which are clearly related to reconstruction projects and whose ultimate application can thus be supervised. Progress of the reconstruction program and the use of the Credit will be reviewed before the end of February to determine the further use of the funds available under the first tranche of the Credit. 23. Following the liberation (in 1979), the Bank Group began project identification in a number of sectors with a view to establishing an active project pipeline. Since an initial reconnaissance mission in July, particular efforts have been made to assess the basic constraints facing the Government in the productive sectors and in transportation. Industrial, agricultural and transport sector reconnaissance missions visited Uganda in the course of the year as well as initial water supply, urban and education missions. Project preparation is now in process in these various sectors and should be further advanced through the Technical Assistance project (Report No. P-2990-UG) signed on January 21, 1981 and the Water Supply Engineering project covered by this report. East African Community (EAC) 24. Lending from the Bank Group to the EAC continued until 1976, when the problems facing the Community made it impossible to continue lending within that framework. After direct lending to Uganda stopped in 1971, Uganda continued to benefit directly from loans made to the EAC Corporations; a  - 8 - telecommunications project in 1973 and a line of credit to the East African Development Bank (EADB) in 1976. Uganda is also an indirect beneficiary of a 1972 EAC harbors loan, although the proceeds of that loan are being disbursed entirely in Kenya and Tanzania. Since October 1, 1977, all remaining balances under EAC loans, with the exception of the EADB loan, have been disbursed on the basis of separate national guarantees. Under the agreed allocation of undis- bursed balances for each loan, as approved by the Executive Directors, some "S$2.0 million was allocated to Uganda for completion of projects in that coun- t y - US$1.9 million for railways and US$0.1 million for telecommunications. These amounts are now fully disbursed. 25. The developments affecting the EAC were outlined in a report to the Executive Directors dated December 29, 1977 (R77-312) and more recent develop- ments were reported in a statement to the Executive Directors during their meeting on May 6, 1980. Dr. Victor Umbricht, the independent mediator ap- pointed by the Partner States in January 1978, has visited East Africa on numerous occasions and prepared reports on the results of his fact-finding work on the EAC Corporations and the General Fund Services, and the methodology adopted in appraising the assets and liabilities. In late March 1980, the mediator presented to the three Governments (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) for their consideration, his proposals for the allocation of these assets and liabilities. The mediator has also prepared a supplemental report in response to the three Governments comments on his proposals and the next step would be the start of negotiations among the three Governments. According to his terms of reference, the mediator would be available to assist in arriving at a definitive settlement. Meanwhile, the mediator-s report and recommendations on the future structure and operations of the EADB have been accepted by the Partner States. The revised EADB Charter, along with the Treaty to enact the new Charter, have now been ratified by the three Governments. PART III - THE WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE SECTOR Water Resources 26. The Uganda plateau, lying within the upper basin of the White 2Nile, has extensive surface water resou5ces. Of its total area of 241,000 km open waters cover about 48,000 km (20%). Lakes Kyoga and Kwania in the center of the country, Lake George in the south-west and Lake Bisina in the north-east lie within Uganda, while Lakes Edward and Mobutu Sese Seko in the west lie on the Zaire border. Lake Victoria in the south-east borders both Kenya and Tanzania. The largest river, the White Nile, rises in Lake Victoria, runs through Lakes Kyoga and Mobutu Sese Seko, and descends over 500 m in a series of falls and rapids before it crosses into Sudan. Most of Uganda's other rivers are seasonal and usually change into vegetation-covered swamps in the dry seasons. Springs and small rivers with clear running water are found in hilly regions, mainly on the slopes of the western Rift Valley. 27. In Uganda, surface water is the principal source for water supply. Data collection on surface water resources began in Uganda in 1948 and since  - 9 - 1967, the data base has been considerably expanded and improved through an ongoing UNDP/WHO-sponsored hydrometeorological survey of Lakes Victoria, Kyoga and Mobutu Sese Seko. Knowledge of groundwater is scant. Currently, about 8,000 boreholes have been drilled, mainly for rural water supply, but available data on configuration of the groundwater table, water quality, etc. have not been consolidated or summarized. However, it appears that the groundwater potential is small. Witer, generally hard and salty, is normally obtained in small yields up to 5 m /hour per well, from depths of about 100 m. Water Supply and Sewerage Systems 28. During the late 1960s, modern water supply facilities served almost the total urban population and about 70% of the rural population. During the 1970s, these facilities were not expanded or properly maintained and the quality of service deteriorated considerably as a result of poor management, lack of funds and shortage of qualified staff. The Government estimates that operating water supply systems are presently serving only about 30% of both the rural and urban population. 29. Water for urban water systems is almost exclusively taken from surface sources and treated. It is estimated that 70% of water supplied is for domestic purposes and 30% for commerce and industry; 80% of domestic consumption is supplied through individual connections and 20% through public kiosks. In view of the recent deterioration in services, towns are now only intermittently supplied and have a reduced coverage. Water quality is usually substandard and often polluted, since the treatment and disinfection facilities are no longer effective. The unserved urban population obtain their supplies from unsatisfactory local sources, mainly springs and swamps or by collecting rainwater. The rural population draws water from protected and unprotected springs, boreholes, a few shallow wells, water holes, rivers, swamps and lakes. Water from boreholes is usually hand pumped but at the moment about 5,000 of the existing 8,000 pumps are defective. Similarly, of the 4,000 protected springs, about 2,500 require substantial repair. 30. Sewerage systems exist in 12 towns, typically serving commercial and industrial areas; they are estimated to serve about 15% of the urban population. Some of the unserved urban population use septic tanks and pit latrines, but about 25% are without any acceptable excreta disposal systems. This represents a serious health hazard in densely inhabited areas. It is now estimated that more than 50% of the rural population use pit latrines. Public Health 31. There is little reliable information on the pattern of water-borne and sanitation-associated diseases. There have been a number of cholera epidemics in the last several years, particularly in fishing communities which follow the fish migrations and lack any excreta disposal facilities. The Ministry of Health's 1977 annual statistics, based on attendance in medi- cal units, show some 265,000 cases of water-borne diseases which resulted in 200 deaths. Improved water supply and sanitation, combined with an education in hygiene, would substantially reduce this number.  - 10 - Institutional Arrangements for the Sector 32. The Ministry of Lands, Mineral and Water Development (MLMWD) is responsible through its Water Development Department (WDD) for the national water resources including the development, operation and maintenance of all water supply and sewerage systems. Exceptions to this are the water supply and sewerage systems in Kampala, Jinja and Entebbe, which are the responsibi- lity of the NWSC. NWSC, an autonomous parastatal reporting to MLMWD, was established in 1972 to develop and operate water supply and sewerage systems in any area specified by MLMWD. The Minister of Lands, Mineral and Water Development has direct responsibility for overseeing the activities of NWSC which is headed by a Board of Directors representing concerned Government ministries and includes two members from the private sector, one of whom represents industrial interests. Day-to-day control over NWSC's activities rests with the Managing Director and his Deputy. NWSC is organized into three functional departments at headquarters in Kampala; Engineering, Finance and Accounts, and Personnel and Administration. These departments are headed respectively by the Chief Engineer, the Chief Accountant and the Corporation Secretary, all reporting to the Managing Director through his Deputy. The two field branches, Kampala/Entebbe and Jinja, each have three sections correspond- ing to the departments at headquarters. The present Managing Director seems well qualified and conscientious. However, NWSC is hampered by lack of trained staff in all of its departments. Technical assistance and a training program aimed at strengthening NWSC's operations would be provided under the proposed project (para. 44). According to NWSC's Act (Decree of 1972), NWSC would "ensure that its revenues provide adequately for the overall cost of operation and maintenance of its services and for depreciation, amortization, interest, and a reasonable return on investment." The Act also allows NWSC, with the prior approval of the Minister of Lands, Mineral and Water Development to inter alia "fix, impose and collect rates, charges and fees for water and sewerage services rendered." While NWSC originally was given responsibility for three towns (Kampala, Jinja and Entebbe), in the Third Five Year Plan (1972-1976) over US$20 million was allocated for capital expenditures on expansion and improvement of other urban water supply and sewerage systems and NWSC was proposed to take these over. This plan was unrealistic in the context of the failing economy. In fact, the state of repair of all water and sewerage systems deteriorated, as noted above (para. 28), and the idea of NWSC's expansion was not pursued. WDD is now reviewing the policy of expand- ing NWSC to take over additional urban water and sewerage systems. As a matter of urgency, WDD intends to improve and expand the systems in four priority towns (Mbale, M4barara, Masaka and Tororo) which NWSC will take over upon completion of construction. These arrangements are satisfactory to the Association. 33. The Ministry of Health is responsible for monitoring the water quality of public systems and the reliability of water disposal installations, including those of NWSC. Sector Development and the Bank Group's Role 34. The sector management has inherited a most difficult and demanding set of problems. Since most records were destroyed during the liberation war,  there is a critical lack of information about actual and potential capacities of water sources and supply facilities. In addition, there are severe shortages of equipment, spare parts, materials and vehicles for the sector. However, the most serious problem is the shortage of qualified staff in all categories. WDD and NWSC are allocated 2,500 staff positions, of which about 450 should be professionals and key sub-professionals. About 70% of the professional positions are vacant and there are no trained Ugandans available to fill them. The shortage of qualified manpower began during 1972 when thousands of non-ciLizens of Asian origin -- many of them professionals -- were expelled from the country. Later, many citizens and expatriates departed and were not replaced. 35. Thie Government is well aware of the physical condition of the facil- ities and has made its first priority the restoration of the services and rehabilitation of the defective equipment of the urban and rural water and sewerage facilities; restocking workshops and laboratories, and building up essential items of inventories. All these works, estimated to cost US$25 million, are now in progress with financial assistance from the European Economic Community, Federal Republic of Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. Next in priority is the expansion of water and sewerage facilities over the next ten years, for which preparation is underway (para. 38). 36. Recognizing the financial and manpower constraints it is facing, the Government has decided that the basic needs for water supply and sanitation in urban areas 1/ should be given the highest priority and that the systems in the seven towns facing the greatest constraints (Kampala, Jinja, Entebbe, Masaka, Mbale, Mbarara and Tororo) should be improved and expanded. After this, the needs of smaller towns and rural areas would be addressed. Improve- ments of service levels would be a long-term program which can be considered only after the basic needs of the entire population are satisfied. 37. To alleviate the acute shortage of qualified manpower, the Govern- ment has begun to recruit engineers and senior technical staff from abroad. In order to augment the number of trained local staff, WDD plans to undertake with consultants assistance, identification of sector manpower needs as a basis for developing training facilities and providing training of technical staff. Administrative staff would be trained in existing Government training institutions. 38. The Bank Group-s initial role in the sector would be to help the Government prepare its expansion program in priority towns. Moreover, as the chief constraint oin both preparation and implementation of such a program is lack of manpower, the Bank Group would provide financing for technical assis- tance, which would, among other activities, assist in the preparation of an appropriate training program. These measures, together with review of water and sewerage tariffs (see para. 44 below), are expected to strengthen the major sector institutions, WDD and NWSC. 1/ The proportion of the urban population has grown from about 3% in 1959 to 7% in 1969 and 10% in 1978 - and is projected to reach over 20% in the year 2000.  - 12 - PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 39. The Bank Group had initially examined in 1970 the possibility of lending for expansion of water supply and sewerage systems in Kampala and Jinja. Studies 1/ had been prepared by the Government with UNDP assistance and the project was ready for appraisal just as Bank Group operations in Uganda came to a halt (para. 21). Since the change in Government in 1979, high priority has been given to the sector. In July 1979, the Bank Group was invited to help reactivate the project and expand it by including other priority urban areas (para 36). 40. When the status of the earlier work was reviewed, it was concluded that available information should be updated and additional work be undertaken to cover the inclusion of the proposed additional towns. Further work was required, for: (i) updating feasibility studies; (ii) new studies for towns added to the project; (iii) detailed engineering design for all seven towns (Kampala, Jinja, Entebbe, Masaka, Mbale, Mbarara and Tororo); (iv) analysis of manpower requirements for operation of new facilities; and (v) preparation of a training program. It was therefore decided to propose an engineering credit to address these needs. The comprehensive engineering studies would allow the Government to start mobilizing financial assistance from other external sources as it is anticipated that the construction cost of a project comprising all seven towns would be substantially larger than the Bank Group alone would be prepared to finance. 41. The proposed engineering project would be the Bank Group-s first operation in the water supply and sewerage sector in Uganda. UNDP funds for Uganda are being committed for other studies and there are no other readily available sources of foreign exchange within Uganda or from other agencies for this purpose. All external sources are now concentrating their assistance on immediate rehabilitation and famine relief. 42. The proposed project was identified during the water supply mission to Uganda in November 1979 and appraised in February 1980. There is no sepa- rate appraisal report for this project. Negotiations were held in Washington in January 1981; the Ugandan Delegation was led by Mr. Ntate, Secretary to the Treasury, Ministry of Finance, and included representatives of MLMWD, NWSC and the Attorney General's office. A Credit and Project Summary is at the front of this report and Annex III contains supplementary project data. The map (IBRD No. 15155) shows the location of towns for which studies and designs are proposed. 1/ Master plans for water supply and sewerage for Greater Kampala and Jinja, UNDP/WHO 1971.  - 13 - Project Objectives and Description 43. The objectives of the proposed project would be to assist the Government in preparing projects for expansion of water and sanitation services in major urban centers, in strengthening WDD and NWSC, in laying the ground for improVement in training of technical staff in the sector, and in educating the general public in the hygienic use of water and sanitation facilities. In view of the need to keep development costs to an absolute minimum and the requirement that the expanded systems should reach as many people of the towns as possible, particularly the poorest segment of the community, the studies would concentrate on the provision of water through communal standpipes 1/ and sanitation by pit latrines. Individual water connections would be provided only to industry, commercial entities, institu- tions, flats and houses with internal plumbing; similarly sewerage systems would be expanded only in areas where other low cost sanitation facilities are not acceptable for economic, public health and environmental considerations. 44. The proposed project would include: (a) feasibility and detailed engineering studies, including prep- aration of tender documents, for rehabilitation and expansion of water supply facilities, upgrading of sewerage systems and improvement and expansion of sanitation facilities in Kampala, Jinja, Entebbe, Masaka, Mbale, Mbarara and Tororo; (b) provision of about six staff houses and offices, twelve vehicles and 15,000 water meters, meter-testing and repair facilities and materials for NWSC's immediate needs; (c) a water supply and sewerage tariff study; (d) a study of manpower and training requirements in the sector, a feasibility study for a training facility and preparation of a training program for technical staff; and (e) provision of the following technical assistance: (i) one engineer to assist MLMWD in coordinating the Project activities (Project Coordination Unit); (ii) two engineers to assist NWSC in supervising engineering consultants work; and (iii) one specialist to assist the Government in organizing education of the general public in hygiene in relation to water use and sanitation. 1/ Government service standards provide that standpipes should not serve more than 200 people and should be accessible to users within a radius of 200 m. These standards are acceptable to the Association.  - 14 - 45. The proposed studies and designs would cover all of the technical, financial, economic, ecological, and sociological aspects needed to undertake an investment project for water supply and sanitation in the selected towns. They would also assess the impact on the poverty group, and establish the base for improving the planning and operating capacity in WDD and NWSC. While the proposed technical assistance would strengthen NWSC's presently weak engineering capacity, the provision of water meters, meter-testing and repair facilities would improve water conservation and collection. In view of the acute shortage of housing and transport in Uganda, the proposed project would provide houses, offices and vehicles to be used by consultants and experts employed. These houses and vehicles would be owned by WDD and NWSC and, after the completion of the proposed project, would be used by other expatriates or staff. Project Costs and Financing 46. The total cost of the proposed project is estimated at US$18.0 mil- lion, of which US$9.0 million (50%) is in foreign exchange. All costs include local taxes, which are estimated at US$5.8 million equivalent. Cost estimates for engineering services are based on consultants- proposals. Estimates for remaining components are in December 1980 prices, based on contracts awarded in eastern african countries for supplies and technical assistance over the last year, and reflect the cost adjusted to similar work undertaken in Uganda. The total project cost includes physical contingencies at 10.0% of base cost and price contingencies based on annual cost escalation of 15.0% and 9.0% for local and foreign components respectively in 1981, and 8.5% for the two components in 1982 and 7.5% for 1983 through 1984. Detailed project costs are contained in the Project and Credit Summary at the beginning of this report. 47. The studies and detailed engineering and the technical assistance are estimated to require 900 and 110 man-months respectively, at a man-month cost of about US$6,000 for studies and US$7,200 for technical assistance (including the man-month rate, international travel and subsistence). In addition to these, the project costs would include the cost of vehicles, construction of offices and houses, drilling and laboratory equipment, and some other minor items required to carry out the studies. 48. The proposed engineering credit of SDR 7.1 million (US$9.0 million) equivalent would cover the entire foreign exchange cost of the proposed project. The local cost (US$9.0 million), including taxes and duties, would be provided by the Government (US$2.7 million) and NWSC (US$6.3 million). The credit would be on standard IDA terms (Sections 2.05 and 2.07 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Part of the credit proceeds (US$2.3 million) would be allocated to WDD by the Government as incremental to WDD-s budgetary allocation. The remaining US$6.7 million would be passed on by the Government to NWSC for carrying out the studies and designs for those cities now under NWSC as an equity contribution (Section 3.01(e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). These arrangements are considered appropriate because, in the short run, NWSC would not generate revenues adequate to meet its debt service. NWSC-s financial position would be the subject of a detailed study during implementation of the project (para. 61 below).  - 15 - Project Execution 49. The proposed project is expected to be implemented between May 1981 and June 1984. MLMWD would have general responsibility for overseeing the proposed project. It has established for this purpose, in March 1980, a Project Coordinating Unit staffed by one local engineer. From May 1981, the Unit would report to the Ministry's Permanent Secretary and from September 1981, the Unit would be expanded by an internationally recruited engineer for a period of three years. MLMWD has agreed to maintain an adequately staffed Project Coordination Unit (Section 3.01 (b) (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). NWSC would have the responsibility for carrying out the engineering studies and designs in the towns in which it presently operates (Kampala, Jinja and Entebbe), the tariff study, construction of staff houses, and procurement and installation of water meters. To strengthen its capacity to implement the project, NWSC would be strengthened by two engineers each for three years and would maintain an adequately staffed engineering department (Section 2.02 of the draft Project Agreement). 50. WDD would be responsible for the execution of that part of the project to be carried out in the remaining four towns (Masaka, Mbale, Mbarara and Tororo), and for the preparation of the sector training facilities and training program. Also, with the assistance of an expert to be employed under the project (Section 3.02(c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement), an educational program directed at the general public in hygienic use of water and sanitation facilities would be prepared. 51. The studies and designs would be carried out by experienced and qualified consulting firms and the technical assistance would be provided by individual experts specifically recruited for the purpose. The qualifications and experience of the consulting firms and individuals to be employed under the project and the terms and conditions of their contracts would be satis- factory to the Association (Section 3.02 (a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement and Section 2.03 of the draft Project Agreement). The consultants' and individual experts' reports on studies, designs, and tender documents would be submitted in draft for review by the Government, NWSC, and the Association. Before their finalization, the Government and NWSC would review with the Association any comments either has on such reports and documents (Section 3.03 of the draft Development Credit Agreement and Section 2.04 of the draft Project Agreement). 52. The terms of reference for the studies and designs and a shortlist of consultants have been prepared by the Government and NWSC; these are acceptable to the Association. The consultants' proposals for Kampala, Jinja and Entebbe were received in April 1980, and for the other four towns in July 1980. Contracts with selected consultants would be signed by May 31, 1981 (Section 3.02(a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement and Section 2.03(a) of the draft Project Agreement) and the design work is expected to be sufficiently advanced for appraisal of a construction project early in 1982. The bids for staff houses and offices are expected to be invited in August 1981 and for water meters, related tools and installation material to be invited in September 1981. The tariff study consultants would be employed by November 1, 1981 (Section 2.03(b) of the draft Project Agreement). Consultants  - 16 - for the preparation of (i) the manpower and training requirements study; (ii) the feasibility study of a training facility; and (iii) the training program for technical staff, would be employed by May 31, 1981 (Section 3.02(a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Preparation of the training program and of the educational program in hygienic use of water and sanitation is expected to be completed in April and December 1982 respectively. A project implementa- tion program, acceptable to the Association has been agreed upon. Procurement and Disbursements 53. Contracts for water meters, related tools and installation material estimated to cost about US$1.3 million, excluding contingencies, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group Guidelines. These items are not manufactured in Uganda and would be imported. The following items would be awarded in accordance with NWSC's procurement procedures which require at least three quotations on the basis of written specifications for equipment and public tender invitation for civil works: vehicles, drilling equipment, laboratory equipment and other material (about US$0.4 million), and construction of about six houses and offices (about US$1.4 million). These procedures are acceptable to the Association. 54. Disbursements under the credit would be on the basis of: (a) 100% of foreign expenditures for vehicles, equipment, water meters, meter-testing and repair facilities, and materials; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures for consultants services and experts; and (c) 35% of total costs for construction of staff houses and offices. All withdrawal requests would be fully documented. Accounts, Auditing and Reporting 55. NWSC and WDD follow different accounting and auditing procedures. Although NWSC-s accounting procedures are generally adequate to provide information needed for financial control, planning and management information reports, its accounts have not been finalized since 1976. This inability to complete the accounts is attributable to NSWC's difficulty in finding a person suitable for employment as chief accountant, a position which has remained vacant since 1974. NWSC has recently employed a suitable person to fill this position. He is being assisted by their external auditors in updating the accounts for 1974/75 through 1979/80 on a contract basis, a task expected to be completed by June 30, 1981. At present the chartered accountants firm, Coopers and Lybrand, whose staff in Uganda is adequately qualified and headed by two partners who are Ugandan nationals serve as NWSCs auditors.  -- 17 - 56. NWSC bills its consumers for water supply and sewerage services once every month in Jinja and Entebbe, and once every three months in Kampala. While billing is normally carried out promptly during the early part of each month or quarter respectively, collections remain substantially in arrears. NWSC's outstanding customers accounts for Kampala, Entebbe and Jinja on December 31, 1979, for example, were UShs 39.7 million or equivalent to about 18 months billing. This accumulation of arrears is the result of NWSCGs -hortage of staff and inability to disconnect consumers who are in default of payment, as the Government s present policy is to keep in operation the essential services like hotels, industries, and commercial and government establishments. This situation, however, is expected to improve as soon as the emergency conditions in the country are over, and a disconnection policy in respect of delinquent consumers can be implemented. 57. WDD, as a department of MLMWD, has all its water and sewerage systems- costs financed from the Government budget. While water supply in rural areas is free of charge, urban consumers in areas serviced by WDD are charged for both water and sewerage (see para. 59). Water and sewerage revenues are collected by WDD and paid to the Treasury. These revenues would normally cover operation and maintenance costs of the systems. WDD accounts are required to be kept in accordance with government accounting and budgetary procedures, but its accounting records and control are presently weak; accounts for past years are unavailable and are said to have been destroyed during the recent liberation war. WDD is presently planning to improve its accounting and reporting systems by requiring its district and provincial offices to regularly submit statements of accounts. 58. Because of the absence of complete accounts for both NWSC and WDD, the appraisal mission collected available information and prepared estimated statements of income and expenditure for NWSC and WDD-s water supply operation for the year ending June 30, 1979. These estimates are set out in Annex IV. Tariffs 59. The current water supply and sewerage rate for metered water supply is UShs 10.80 1/ per thousand gallons for Kampala, Jinja and Entebbe; lower rates are applied in other towns and areas. Very few consumers, however, are charged on this basis because most of them have unmetered supply due to the absence of working meters. When water consumption is not metered, two sets of rates based on the annual rental value of the property are charged for * water supply and sewerage services; a General Water Rate (GWR) applies to all owners or occupants of property located within 1,000 feet of a water main regardless of whether they are connected or not, and an additional Internal Supply Rate (ISR) applies to consumers with connected water supply. GWR and ISR are at different levels for different urban centers. 1/ Of which UShs 4.80 is sewerage charge.  60. Lack of metering results in considerable waste, as there is no incentive to economize on use of water. While both NWSC and WJDD intended to install meters, this policy has not been implemented due to lack of funds. It is estimated that if all water supply connections were metered, revenues would increase by 25% to 40%, significantly reducing the operating losses now being incurred by both NWSC and WDD. The proposed installation of about 15,000 meters will improve the situation. 61. The estimates illustrated in Annex IV show that present revenues do not cover the operating costs of either NWSC or WDD. It would require approxi- mately a 50% increase in revenues for NWSC to cover the estimated operating loss and interest. While an increase in revenues of this order might result from the rehabilitation of water supply systems currently underway (para. 35) which would increase water production and sales revenues, there is a strong case for a comprehensive tariff study to provide an appropriate framework for future water tariff policy. This study, to be financed under the proposed credit, would inter alia, assess demand growth for water in the selected towns, cost of additional facilities to be constructed to meet the growing demand, and the consequent increases in operating costs and debt service requirements together with a reasonable return on investment. The results of this study would be available by September 30, 1982, so that the relevant policy decisions can be made before further investments in this sector are made; it would be submitted to the Association for its review and comments (Section 2.01(b) of the draft Project Agreement). By October 31, 1982, the Government would prepare a program for implementing a revised tariff structure satisfactory to the Association, which would ensure financial self-sufficiency for NWSC and ensure that WDDs revenues are adequate to cover its operating expenses. The revised tariff structure would be applied by NWSC and WDD by January 1, 1983 (Section 3.01(f) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Within six months of the completion of the Project, the Government, through WDD and NWSC, would prepare and submit to the Association a Project Completion Report analyzing the implementation of the proposed project and achievement of its objectives (Section 3.05(d) of the draft Development Credit Agreement and Section 2.07(c) of the draft Project Agreement). Project Justification and Risks 62. The proposed engineering project would represent the first important step in providing basic needs in water and sanitation to about 1.5 million people presently not served in Uganda-s major urban centers. It would strengthen NWSC and WDD and help the Government to develop a training program for the water sector. The hygienist provided under the project would provide the Government with proposals for the education of the general public in water use and hygienic excreta disposal in the context of local practices and conditions, which combined with better services would improve health standards. 63. The risk involved in the proposed engineering project is minimal as the consultants for the major part of the studies have been short listed and their proposals are being examined (para. 52); no major delay in the imple- mentation of the project is therefore anticipated. It is intended that the proposed engineering studies would result in a major urban water supply and sewerage construction project. The major risks involved in the construction  - 19 - project, which would be designed under the proposed project, are the Govern- ments ability to develop an appropriate policy framework for the sector and the current heavy demand upon Government financial resources which may curtail or delay the implementation of a further project. Inefficient administration may also impede the development and implementation of government sector policies. However, the high priority accorded by the Government to urban water supply and sanitation is expected to ensure timely mobilization of external finances for the construction project. Moreover, through the pre- paration, under the proposed engineering project, of engineering studies, a comprehensive manpower training program, and carrying out analyses of critical sectoral issues, these risks are considerably reduced. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 64. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Uganda and the Association, the draft Project Agreement between the Associa- tion and the National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC), and the Recom- mendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 65. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III to this report. 66. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 67. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President February 11, 1981  -20- ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 'IGANDA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET UGANDA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AV ES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MDST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 236.0 AGRICULTURAL 105.4 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 160.0 210.0 280.0 228.9 726.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 30.0 74.0 48.0 80.0 699.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 6.8 9.8 12.4 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 5.2 8.0 11.1 17.3 28.9 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 23.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 58.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2130 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KH. 29.0 42.0 53.0 27.4 61.7 PER SQ. 1Gi. AGRICULTURAL LAND 72.0 98.0 117.0 82.6 126.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.8 44.0 45.0 44.9 45.5 15-64 YRS. 54.0 53.0 52.0 52.2 51.6 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 URBAN 7.3 6.3 7.3 6.8 4.9 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER TUOUSAND) 43.0 43.0 45.0 47.4 46.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER TEOUSAND) 21.0 17.0 14.0 19.6 16.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUASC (THOUSANDS) .. 3.8 16.1 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 107.0 99.0 91.0 91.8 94.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 89.0 98.0 91.0 90.2 92.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 47.0 55.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 19.0 24.0 26.0 18.4 15.6 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 30.0 22.0 17.0 27.7 21.3 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 44.0 49.0 53.0 45.3 50.1 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 160.0 120.0 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 22.0 35.0 23.2 31.0 URBAN .. 88.0 100.0 58.0 66.8 RURAL .. 17.0 29.J 16.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 76.0 94.0 28.9 URBAN .. 84.0 82.0 67.0 RURAL .. 76.0 95.0 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 12958.0/c 9210.0/c 27599.0 30910.4 14508.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 9424.0/c 8030.0/c.d4298.0 5793.2 3279.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 795.0 640.0 624.0 1198.9 1141.5 URBAN 56.0 65.0 RURAL 1622.0 1849.0 .. .. . ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 154.S/d HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. 4.8 URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..  -21- AMNEX I Page 2 of 5 UGANDA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET UGANDA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVRAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)L MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 49.0 61.0 53.0 57.7 61.7 MALE 65.0 72.0 63.0 74.2 69.2 FEMALE 32.0 49.0 44.0 54.1 51.4 SECONDARY: TOTAL 3.0 6.0 7.0 10.0 20.6 MALE 4.0 9.0 10.0 13.7 29.2 FEMALE 1.0 3.0 4.0 7.1 14.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (1 OF SECONDARY) 12.0 7.0 6.0 6.8 7.0 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 31.0 34.0 35.0 45.0 36.6 SECONDARY 18.0 20.0 21.0 25.2 24.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 35.0 .. .. 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.6 38.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 12.0 24.0 21.0 31.5 83.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 1.4 6.1 1.8 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 8.0 8.0 5.0 4.6 24.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.3 .. 0.1 .. 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (ThOUSANDS) 3049.0 4207.7 5120.2 FEMALE (PERCENT) 34.2 33.7 34.0 33.5 38.1 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 89.4 85.9 83.0 80.7 54.3 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 3.6 4.6 6.0 8.1 17.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 44.6 43.5 42.3 42.2 38.8 MALE 58.3 57.3 56.1 55.1 48.4 FEMALE 30.7 29.5 28.3 29.5 29.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 20.0 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 46.6 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 6.2 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 16.6 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 138.2 * RURAL .. .. .. 86.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 107.0 RURAL .. .. 87.0 65.0 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. RURAL .. .. .. 66.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1978. /c Registered, not all practicing in the country; /d Government establishments only. April, 1980  -22- ANNEX I Page 3 of 5 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Notes: Altough the deets a drawn from sources generally judged the mast authoritative aed reliable, in should also be noted thee they may net be itter- etlooully cooyarshle beteuse ot the look ot standatdieed definitions sod noonoeptoteed by different ounsordes it collertiog she data. The data are, none- thelesc, useful tt describe orders of magnitude. indicate streds, and nharaeteriIe tertaho mejoi diffeeretes hetwen eo..tries. The refereene groups are (1) the same country genup of the subject country and (2) a coInory group vith someohat high-er aerage inoome thee he eountry group of sInthe subjt fy f p ta " l ds O tohers g p where "Middle ILlos Nntoh Afi ai end Middle tet" i chosen ue strooger soo-ulua ffissittas). Is the rnfereooe geoup data the scRugs n pepulatir weighted arithmetic nee fo eehiodic--o sod ah-s oly hb.o at least half of the rountee in a group hen data foe that indiatoe. Stine the Io.e.age of Couet ins .moeg the ledicators depe ido on the oviilibility of date and is not u tiforrs osuriun suet be nloernised ie relating averages of see indicytor to so-the. Tb co overoges arr only useful it cosyaring the value of one indiotor- ata ioemongthe ootorynd reference groups. LAND AREA (thousand sq.ks.) rulstlon er l