Colombia - Economic position and prospects (Vol. 1 of 2) : Main report

Report No. 3556-CO Economic Position and Prospects of Colombia (In Two Volumes) Volume 1: Main Report September 17, 1981 Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Peso Exchange Rate Effective September_4, 1981 US$1.00 = Col$55.77 Col$1.00 = US$0.0179 Average Exchange Rate (Buying) 1977 1978 1979 US$1.00 = Col$36.775 US$1.00 = Col$39.095 US$1.00 = Col$42.550 Col$1.00 = US$0.0272 Col$1.00 = US$0.0256 Col$1.00 = US$0.0235 1980 US$1.00 = Col$47.280 Col$1.00 = US$0.0212  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Colombia on April 1981. The mission was led by Mr. Jose Sokol and included Mr. Mario Blejer, Mrs. Sushma Ganguly, Mr. Angel Antonaya and Ms. Consuelo Cruz. In addition, the report includes contributions from a Public Sector Investment mission which visited Colombia in November 1980 composed of Messrs. Jose Sokol, Ali Ezzati, Luis Marco, Constantinos Doultsinos and Branko Grdjic. Mr. Wolfgang Schaeffer contributed a background paper for that mission. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of | their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World bank authorization.   TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. VOLUME I - THE MAIN REPORT MAP COUNTRY DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i - xv I. BACKGROUND ................................................. 1 A. Introduction ..1......................................... B. Recent Economic Developments, 1974-79 .................. 2 C. Economic Developments in 1980 .......................... 6 D. Short Term Outlook ...... ............ ................... 14 II. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND STRATEGY ............................ 17 A. Introduction ........................................... 17 B. The Process of Import Liberalization ................... 19 C. Energy ................................................. 22 D. Transportation ......................................... 26 E. Agriculture ............................................ 28 F. The Social Sectors ..................................... 31 III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM ........................... 36 A. Public Sector Investment ............................... 36 B. Financing of Public Sector Investment .................. 43 IV. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ...... ............ .. ..................... 47 A. Output and Expenditure ................................. 47 B. Balance of Payments .................................... 49 C. External Capital Requirements .......................... 53 D. Debt Management and Creditworthiness ................... 55 VOLUME II - STATISTICAL APPENDIX   740 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~FI)R -3~j i' 78 76