Ecuador - Current economic position and prospects

R EST R I CT E D Report No. W.H. 44-a This document was prepared for internal use in the Bank. In making it available to others, the Bank assumes no responsibility to them for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF ECUADOR February 13, 1956 epartment of Operations - estern Hemisphere  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS U.S. $1 . S/15.00 S/1 , U.S. $0.07 S/l,000,000 . U.S. $67,000  TABLE OF CONTTETS JPGE BASIC DATA CHARTS SULiJARY A'D CONCLUSIONS PRODUCTION: RECENT GROWTH AND PROSPE&TS 1 Agriculture E Industry 2 Mining 3 Flexibility in the economy 3 DCUESTIC FINANCE: RECEJT DEVT7LO?MNENTS AND PROBL&NS 4 Public finance 4 Mioney and credit 6 Canital formation 7 BALANCE OF PAYM-TTS: RPISC=T DEVELOPM-ENTS AND PRCSP5CTS 11 Dcports 11 Imports 12 Dcternaal payments prospects 13 EKchange reserves 14 External debt 14 Creditworthiness 15 APPENIDIC ES A. Ecuador's exclhange system B. Major recent changes in exchange restrictions C. Ecchange rates effective on July 1, 1955 m Assignments of tariff revenues as prescribed by the customs law. E. The Junta Nacional de Planificacion y Coordinacion Economica.  STATISTICAL APPE1DIX External Debt 1. Summary of Ecuador's Ecternal Public Debt Outstanding at Dec. 31, 1955 2. Estimated Contractual Interest and Amortization Payments on Ecuador's Ecternal Debt. Foreign Capital 3. Foreign Investment in Ecuador as at December 31, 1953 Production 4. Agricultural Production 1950-54 5. Industrial Production 1950-54 6. Area Planted to Principal Crops, 1951-54 7. Average Yields, 1951-54 8. Miinerals Production 1950-54 Public Finance 9. Central Government Cash Revenues and ExpendituresV 1950-54 10. Consolidated Revenues and Investment Expenditures of the Public Sector Percentage Shares by type of Government Unit, 1950-53. Money and Credit 11. Changes in the Money Supply, 1950-55 12. Private Bank Operations, 1950-54 13. Operations of the Sistema de Bancos de Fomento, 1950-54 National Accounts and Capital Formation 1h. National Income by Industrial Origin, 1950-53 15. Expenditures on Gross National Product, 1950-54 16. Composition of Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation, 1950-53 17. Financing Gross Domestic Capital Formation 1950-53 18. Planned Investments in the Public Sector, 1955-60 19. Annual Increases in Transferable Savings in the Private Sector - Selected Items 1950-54 20. Distribution of Holdings of Negotiable Ecuadorian Securities as at December 31, 1950 and 1954. Balance of payments 21. Balance of Payments of Ecuador, 1950-55 22. Ecuador's Merchandise Exports, 1950-54 23. Ecuador's Three Main Exports, 1950-54 24. Destination of Ecuador's Principal Exports in 1954 25. Ecuador's Merchandise Imports, 1950-54 26. Merchandise Trade by Geographical Area, 1950-54 27. Ecuador's International Reserves, 1950-55 28. Purchases and Sales of Foreign Exchange by the Central Bank, 1950-55 29. Purchases and Sales of Foreign Exchange by the Central Bank, during January - June, 1952-55.  STAT1STICAL APPEN'DIX (Continued) Pric es 30. Terms of Trade, 1950-5L 31. Working Class Cost of Living Index in Quito and Guayaquil, 1950-55  BASIC DATA Area 102,000 square miles Population 3.6 million (mid-1954) 1954 Gross National Product 10,165 million sucres Gross investment expenditures as % of C-NP 1.7% Ecports as % of GNP 12% Origin of National Income % of N.I. in 1953 Agriculture 39 Industry 16 Commerce 11 A11 other 34 Balance of Payments (million U. S. dollars) Jan. - June 1954 1954 1955 EKports 1/ 128.6 53.0 56.8 Imports 100.3 L6.2 45.0 28.3 -6. 1 Invisibles 1/ -41.6 -18.1 -20.3 Balance -13.3 -TT5 g Private financing 9.4 2 9 0.Tf Official financing 1.1 3.5 8.1 Errors and omissions 2.8 4.9 0.8 Dcternal Reserves with Central Bank As at December 31,. 1955 In miillions of U.S. dollars 22.2 As % of Central Bank sales of exchange during preceding twelve months .22% 1954 Central Government Cash Budget (million sucres) Revenues 19101 Expenditures 1,163 Revenues as % of total public revenues (1953) 44% Debt (million sucres) Cerntral government's internal debt (Decemiber 31, 1954) 26b.6 Ecuador's external public debt (June 30, 1955) 914.6 ($61.o million) 1/ See notes to Table 21  ECUADOR BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT (MILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS) 0 25 510 75 1 00 1 25 1 50 1948 | _ EXPORTS (f.o.b.) RECEIPTS PAYMENTS 1949 -IMPORTS (f.o.b.) _: IET INvISIBL ES RECEIPTS PAYMENTS 1950 RECEIPTS .::.:... PAYMENTS 1951 RECEIPTS : :*. . .. PAYMENTS 1952 RECEIPTS ; - -. .. PAYMENTS 1953 RECEIPTS .......... PAYMENTS 1954 .,_____ RECEIPTS .....:.. .... *.. PAYMENTS 1955 RECEIPTS PAYMENTS EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT SERVICE (MILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS) 8 6:SUPPLIERS6 6 > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~6 4 t 4 0 0 1956 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1/13/56 1096 IBRD- Economic Staff  ECUADOR EXPORTS OF PRINCIPAL COMMODITIES (MILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS) 120 120 100 Y I 100 TOTAL EXPORTS 80 80 60C6 40 SS 40 20 20 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 TERMS OF TRADE (INDEX, 1950 =100) 200 YEARLY 200 150 IMPORT PRICES ....... 150 100-- - -100 1o -. _ __ _ ~_ _-_zMOTP E5>..., _ 1 00 .... .................. TERMS OF TRADE 50 1947 50 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (MILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS) (PERCENT 40 i I 1000, -LEFT SCALE\/> \8