India - Calcutta Urban Transport Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY P-7328 REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE CALCUTTA URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT May 14, 1980 FILE COPY This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENT (As of May 2, 1980) Rs 1.00 = Paise 100 US$1.00 = Rs 7.9712 Rs 1.00 US$0.12545 Rs 1,00O,000 US$125,452 (Since September 24, 1975, the Rupee has been fixed against a "basket" of currencies. As these currencies are floating, the US Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. Conver- sions in the Staff Appraisal Report were made at US$1.00 to Rs 8.40, which represents the projected exchange rate over the disbursement period). FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED IN THIS REPORT CMD = Calcutta Metropolitan District CMDA Calcutta Metropolitan Development Authority CSTC Calcutta State Transport Corporation CTC = Calcutta Tramways Company, Ltd. GDP = Gross Domestic Product GOI = Government of India GOWB = Government of West Bengal km = kilometer km = square kilometer NRR Net Reproduction Rate POL Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants PVD Public Vehicles Department RTA = Regional Transport Authority  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INDIA CALCUTTA URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiaries and Amounts Allocated: Calcutta State Transport Corporation (CSTC): US$25.0 million Calcutta Tramways Company, Ltd. (CTC): US$23.5 million Calcutta Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA): US$7.5 million Amount: US$56 million. Terms: Standard. Relending Terms: (a) India to GOWB: as part of Central assistance to State development projects. (b) GOWB to CSTC: equity and loans at 6.25% interest over 20 years with 4 years' grace. (c) GOWB to CTC: equity and loans at 6-25% interest over 20 years with 4 years' grace. (d) GOWB to CMDA: as part of GOWB's normal budgetary allocation to CMDA. Project Description: The purpose of the project is to improve the efficiency of transport services provided by public and private operators in the Calcutta Metropolitan District. It would accomplish this by: (i) introducing a series of policy and administrative measures designed to improve management in CSTC and CTC and to facilitate and improve private bus operations; (ii) supporting a program of physical investments by CSTC, CTC and CMDA to expand and rehabilitate the physical plant of the bus and tram undertakings, ease traffic congestion in the CMD, and improve road and travelling conditions for transport operators and passengers; and (iii) providing technical assistance to CTC, CSTC, and CMDA to facili- tate project implementation, transport planning, and project monitoring and evaluation. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Estimated Project Cost: 1/ (US$ Millions) Local Foreign Total CSTC: Bus Procurement 21.17 9.07 30.24 Plant and Equipment Expansion and Upgrading 7.39 1.42 8.81 Training and Technical Assistance 1.82 0.03 1.85 CTC: Tram Rehabilitation Program 13.67 4.91 18.58 Plant and Equipment Upgrading & Expansion 15.66 2.85 18.51 Training and Technical Assistance 2.20 0.04 2.24 CMDA: Bus Terminals and Passenger Shelters 2.98 0.36 3.34 Traffic Engineering and Management 5.10 0.85 5.95 Technical Assistance 1.91 0.12 2.03 Project Administration 3.37 - 3.37 Base Cost 75.27 19.65 94.92 Physical Contingencies 6.37 1.83 8.20 Price Contingencies 14.97 3.62 18.59 Total Project Cost 96.61 25.10 121.71 Financing Plan: (US$ Millions) Local Foreign Total IDA 30.90 25.10 56.00 GOWB (budgetary allo- cations, loans and equity) 65.71 - 65.71 96.61 25.10 121.71 I/ Including US$9.7 million in taxes and duties. 1/ Including US$9.7 million in taxes and duties.  - 3l1l - Estimated (US$ Millions) Disbursements: _/ FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 Annual 3.6 14.6 22.8 15.0 Cumulative 3.6 18.2 41.0 56.0 Rate of Return: 23%. Appraisal Report: No. 2884-IN, dated May 9, 1980. 1/ According to IDA's fiscal year.   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE CALCUTTA URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to India in an amount equivalent to US$56 million on standard IDA terms to help finance a project for the rehabilitation of public transport systems in the Calcutta Metropolitan District. The proceeds of the credit would be channelled to the Government of West Bengal in accordance with the Government of India's standard terms and arrangements for financing State development projects. The exchange risk would be borne by the Govern- ment of India. PART I - THE ECONOMY I/ 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (2431-IN dated April 9, 1979), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 13, 1979. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is a large, low-income country with 652 million people (in mid-1979) whose average income is US$180 per annum. The agricultural sector dominates the economy, employing over two-thirds of the labor force and con- tributing over 40% of value added. Although smallholder agriculture provides a fullsome subsistence to many, the land base is inadequate to provide all families in rural areas with an adequate livelihood under current conditions, and many who are landless or nearly landless have only an insecure grasp on the means of existence. Industrialization in India has not been rapid enough to bring about the economic transformation that has led to higher productivity and rapid urbanization in some other countries. The urban population was 18% of the total in 1960, 20% in 1970 and is 21% now. The share of manufacturing has grown slowly and since the late 1960s has remained roughly constant at 16% of GDP. 4. Economic growth has been slow in the past, with GDP growing at a trend rate of 3.6% per annum from 1950 to 1975. Agricultural output grew at 2.4% per annum over the same period. Slow growth in agriculture acted as a drag on overall growth, not only because of its sheer weight in the total, but also because of the need to use scarce foreign exchange to import food. Growth in industrial output has been higher at 5.2% per annum between 1950 and 1975, but not as high as in many other developing countries nor as high as can be expected. 1/ Parts I and II of the report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report for the Kerala Agricultural Extension Project (Report No. P-2797-IN), dated May 1, 1980.  - 2 - 5. This slow growth has persisted despite a quite creditable domestic saving and investment performance. Domestic saving has grown from 9% of GDP in 1951 to the current high level of 24%. Gross domestic investment has risen from 10% to 24% of GDP over the same period. Foreign savings have never financed a large portion of domestic investment and have financed no more than 5% of investment since 1970. Foreign savings have been important in financing imports, and a shortage of foreign exchange has acted as a constraint on the economy for most of the period. External assistance has been low both as a percentage of GDP and in per capita terms. Net external assistance is less than 2% of GDP now, has never risen above 3% and fell to less than 1% in the early 1970s. Exports have grown relatively slowly--5.4% per annum in US dollar terms and 2.8% per annum in volume terms between 1950/51 and 1975/76. So far during the 1970s, exports have grown much more rapidly, by 18% per annum in US dollar terms and 8% in volume terms over the period 1970/71 to 1976/77. During the same period imports grew by 17% per annum in US dollar terms but only by 2% per annum in volume terms, reflecting a 28% fall in India's terms of trade over the period. 6. India has the capacity to grow and develop at a more rapid pace than has been achieved so far. Although the industrial sector is small compared to the size of the total economy, it nevertheless has a highly diversified struc- ture and is capable of manufacturing a wide variety of consumer and capital goods. Basic infrastructure--irrigation, railways, telecommunications, roads and ports--is extensive compared to many countries, although considerable gaps remain. India is rich in human resources and institutional infrastruc- ture, although there is much scope for improvement. India is reasonably well-supplied with natural resources, not only land and water but minerals, including oil, gas and coal. With good economic policies and sufficient access to foreign savings, India should be able to manage these considerable resources to accelerate the longer-term growth trend. Recent Trends 7. India has managed faster growth during the recent past. Growth of GDP in 1978/79 is estimated to be between 3% and 4%; this is a strong perform- ance coming on top of the previous year's 7.2% growth in GDP and considering agricultural output grew less than 2%. Even this agricultural growth is highly creditable given the previous years' record harvests in most crops. Industrial output grew by 8-10% in 1978/79. Over the four years, 1975/76 to 1978/79, growth in real GDP, agricultural output and industrial output has averaged 5.3%, 4.4% and 6.9% per annum, respectively. Although these rates represent growth over the depressed base of the early 1970s, they are signi- ficantly higher than the longer-term past trend and comparable to the target growth rates for the medium-term future. Buoyant domestic demand, stagnating output and world inflation have led to significant increases in prices during the first half of the 1979/80 fiscal year. The wholesale price index for September 1979 was 18.4% above that of the previous September. Together, the rise in the prices of food products, crude petroleum and mineral oils accounted for over two-thirds of the increase in the index. However, prices of almost all commodities moved up significantly over this period as reflected in the 9.6% increase in the prices of the residual commodities. Government attempts to regulate the supply and price of commodities like sugar and edible oils,  ceilings on credit, adjustment of some interest rates and the seasonal downturn of the fruit and vegetable prices after summer helped the wholesale price index to level off after September. However, if allowance is made for the seasonal factors, prices are still rising at approximately an 18% annual rate. The Indian economy will no doubt continue to face inflationary pressure during the 1980/81 fiscal year. Its intensity will to a large extent depend on the developments in world inflation, especially the rise in oil prices and India's success in alleviating the supply bottlenecks that emerged during 1979. Although the current inflationary pressures need not seriously impair medium- term growth prospects, given available aggregate resources and production capacity, significant improvements are likely to be required in the organ- ization of key sectors if an economic slowdown is to be avoided. 8. The 1978/79 foodgrain crop exceeded the 1977/78 record crop of 126 million tons, and many non-food crops did well. The 1978 monsoon rains were timely and adequate, although severe flooding in some areas destroyed both lives and property and ruined some crops. The basic inputs into agricul- tural production continued their rapid growth of the recent past. Additions to area under irrigation have doubled from 1.3 million hectares a year during. the five-year period ending 1973/74 to 2.6 million hectares a year during 1977/78 and 1978/79. Fertilizer consumption in 1978/79 reached 5 million nutrient tons, an increase of 18% over 1977/78. This growth has been impres- sive, particularly since it followed two successive years of very high growth-- 18% in 1976/77 and 26% in 1977/78--so that fertilizer consumption in 1978/79 was 75% higher than in 1975/76. However, prospects for agricultural produc- tion in 1979/80 are not good. India experienced a severe drought in 1979. The monsoon was delayed and subsequent rainfall was deficient throughout the country. Consequent damage to the kharif crop has been substantial. Tenta- tive estimates indicate a shortfall of 10-12 million tons in kharif crop from last year's level of 78.7 million tons. Delayed sowing, lack of soil moisture, low levels of water in tanks and wells as well as power cutbacks and recent shortages in diesel fuel for irrigation pumps are adversely affecting the rabi crop. Depending on the performance of the rabi crop, total shortfall in grain crop is expected to be 10-12 million tons below the 1978/79 level. 9. The growth of industrial output in 1978/79 came from a sharp rise in the output of food industries, particularly sugar, a modest increase in textiles, important increases in the hitherto depressed engineering sector and the revival of demand for consumer durables. Production would have been still higher but for recurring shortages of steel, coal, railway wagons and electric power and capacity constraints in fertilizer, cement, vegetable oils and petroleum products. Labor unrest also constrained output in some indus- tries, particularly in textiles, steel and mining; man-days lost in 1978 ex- ceeded the high level of 1977 and only in 1974 were the number of days lost higher. Power production increased by 12% but continuing shortages in many States necessitated power cuts and curbs on new demand. During the first half of 1979/80 supply bottlenecks in basic industrial inputs began to retard overall industrial production. In addition to coal and steel, cement, sugar, cotton textile and cotton yarn output fell below last year's levels. Strong demand has continued to sustain other important industries such as fertilizers and chemicals, but it appears increasingly unlikely that these can counter- balance the constrained sectors.  - 4 - 10. The trade deficit grew and both the current account surplus and the balance of payments surplus of recent years shrank in 1978/79. The import bill is expected to reach US$8.4 billion, which brings the average rate of increase in US dollar terms to 19% per annum since 1976/77. Non-foodgrain imports rose even more dramatically by 28% per annum over the past two years. The growth of imports and the liberalization of import control policies represents a desirable adjustment to enhanced foreign resources. Although exports grew much faster during the 1970s through 1976/77 than earlier, export growth in 1977/78 and 1978/79 has slowed somewhat. After rising by 12% in 1975/76 and 23% in 1976/77 in US dollar terms (virtually all growth in export volume), export earnings rose by only 9% in 1977/78 (with little or no volume growth) and an estimated 8% in 1978/79 (with 5-8% volume growth). Although part of the decline is attributable to unfavorable conditions in foreign markets, export profitability has been allowed to deteriorate somewhat. With net invisible receipts in 1978/79 estimated the same as in 1977/78--US$2 billion-- the widened trade deficit resulted in a significantly reduced current account surplus, from US$1 billion in 1977/78 to US$400 million in 1978/79. Despite some increase in net aid disbursements from their low level in 1977/78, the increase in reserves declined from about US$2 billion in 1977/78 to about US$1.5 billion in 1978/79 to reach US$7.4 billion. Exports during the first three months of this fiscal year are 32% higher than the same quarter of last year. Imports in the first quarter of 1979/80 are around 7% higher than the same period of the previous year. However, the impact of recent increases in petroleum prices are only partially reflected in this figure. India's total POL import bill for 1979/80 is likely to reach $3.2 billion, $800 million higher than earlier estimates. As a result, there should be a sharp deceleration in the rate of growth of reserves sufficient to significantly reduce the number of months of imports covered by reserves during 1980. Development Prospects 11. The faster growth of the recent past has been made possible by the much-increased inward flow of foreign exchange from increased exports, workers' remittances and external assistance; greatly improved agricultural performance; the impressive saving effort; the liberalization of import controls; and ex- panded public expenditure on development programs. Although sustaining the high growth rates of the recent past in the medium-term is by no means assured, especially if there is a repeated drought in 1980, India has a level of re- sources with which to manage the economy that had not existed before. The comfortable foreign exchange position, and the large foodgrain stocks have greatly eased the pressures to deal with short-term crises and freed India's economic managers to continue planning a more ambitious course for the economy. The policy improvements needed to achieve the better performance now possible have begun in some important areas but in others have yet to be initiated. 12. The Draft Plan, which was released in March 1978 and is expected to be finalized and approved by the National Development Council later this year, sets out India's development strategy for the five years 1978/79 to 1982/83. The principal objectives of the Draft Plan are to achieve within  - 5 - a period of ten years: (i) the removal of unemployment and significant underemployment, (ii) an appreciable rise in the standard of living of the poorest sections of the population, and (iii) provision by the Government of some of the basic needs of the people in these low-income groups. While the Plan recognizes the importance of achieving more rapid expansion of the economy than in the past to meet the employment and welfare objectives, the targeted rate of growth at 4.7% per annum is lower than projected in most earlier Plans. According to the planners, this reflects in part the increased emphasis given to the distribution rather than the level of income generation, and in part the need for greater realism in the macro-economic assumptions underlying the Plan. While the trade-off between growth and distribution is not immediately obvious from the Plan model, the adoption of a more realistic growth target is in itself well justified -- even at 4.7% per annum, the targeted growth rate is higher than actually achieved during any of the previous Plan periods, and is substantially above the longer-term trend growth rate. 13. In agriculture, despite the 1979 drought, economic policies, dev- elopment programs and secular trends all seem favorable for resuming a period of sustained high growth after 1979/80. Fertilizer prices have been reduced progressively from their very high level in early 1975 and despite some fall in market foodgrain prices, the fertilizer: foodgrain price ratio has fallen to a clearly profitable range. Good harvests and higher farm incomes provide the money to finance higher fertilizer purchases, creating something of a virtuous circle. Pricing policies for many crops--rice, wheat, sugarcane, pulses and others--have concentrated recently on supporting prices to maintain incentives to farmers rather than trying to administratively control prices to contain inflation. The ambitious irrigation and rural electrification investment program in the new Five-Year Plan, if fully funded, will help pro- vide the water control needed to increase yields directly and to induce further productivity-increasing investments. The effective reorganization of the agricultural extension service will raise yields as it takes hold gradually across India. Finally, there are several heartening trends in foodgrain pro- duction: one is the steady growth of area planted to high-yielding varieties of rice; another is the growing adoption of summer rice cultivation in the traditional wheat-producing areas (Punjab and Haryana). These two trends along with the other favorable developments have caused rice production to rise impressively in the last two years. Another good omen for foodgrain production is the rapid growth of winter wheat cropping in traditional rice areas (West Bengal, Assam and Orissa). 14. In industry, despite some uncertaintv in industrial policy and the lack of strong policy stimulus to improve efficiency in the industrial structure, recently strengthened demand forces, increase in planned invest- ment along with adroit input supply management should allow the industrial sector to continue to grow at the improved rate of the recent past, at least for the near- and medium-term future. Over the longer term, growth of indus- trial production at or above the rate experienced in the recent past--e.g., 7% per annum during the last four years--will require some changes in policy to induce a more efficient industrial structure. Recent industrial policies have sent mixed siguals to private manufacturers and investors. Some, such as reserving certain lines of production for small-scale enterprises or prohibit- ing the location of new firms in municipal areas, have been restrictive.  - 6 - Others have been stimulative, such as the raising of the exemption limit of industrial licensing for capital investment or favorable adjustments in the pricing and production controls in several major industries, including cement, steel, and textiles. In addition the liberalization of import controls is of considerable benefit to increasing industrial production. However, there are some worrisome supply shortages that are currently threatening continued rapid industrial growth. Many can be handled through imports, if needed, as long as India maintains a healthy foreign exchange position. However, two supply constraints likely to persist in the future -- namely, rail transport and power -- cannot be eased through imports. The new Plan contains a major power investment program to increase capacity rapidly. The railway investment pro- gram is more modest. Another crucial input into both of these sectors, and into most other major sectors, is coal, whose supply needs careful management. 15. The main reason for expecting sustained growth in industrial pro- duction is improvement in demand prospects for each of the four major sources of industrial demand. The first is market demand for manufactured consumption goods, which is expected to pick up in response to the increase in disposable income due in particular to improvement in agricultural output. Although its effect has been delayed somewhat, this broad-based demand is finally making itself felt and is expected to continue into the future unless the growth in agricultural output is constrained by repeated droughts. Another source of demand is public expenditure on development projects, which has grown in a major way in the last few years and is scheduled to continue to grow under the new Five-Year Plan. A third source of growth is export demand for indus- trial goods. There has been a sustained growth in the export of manufactures such as engineering goods, garments, gems, finished leather and some chemical products. This export growth should continue in the future with proper policy support. A final source of growing demand is private investment by both the household and corporate sectors. There are as yet only a few signs of this growth, such as increased disbursement by term lending institutions and in- creased use of inputs; investments should become stronger as growth in the other sources of demand continues and as capacity limitations begin to con- strain production in more industries. The net result of increasing demand should be continued high growth in industrial production in the near and medium term within existing policies. 16. Import policy is an area where there has been significant improve- ment in the recent past; but some improvement in export policy is required to raise incentives to export. India has liberalized import control policy significantly in the past two years and imports have responded. Future growth in imports, and in the benefits of price stability, enhanced production and increased efficiency which imports bring, will depend to a great extent on how the now liberalized policy is administered. A delicate touch is required to yield the benefits without bringing about undesirable damage to vulnerable industries. India has the foreign resources to allow imports to grow at the rapid rates of the past two years for a few more years and continue to relax the very severe restraints imposed on the economy during the early 1970s by suppression of imports. But, given the import liberalization undertaken so far and the expected growth of imports, by the end of the Plan period (1982/ 83), foreign exchange reserves will have fallen to six months of imports, or less, and some adjustment in the balance of payments will be required. Part  - 7 - of the adjustment will very likely be a reduction in the growth rate of imports; the import bill need not grow 15% in volume terms indefinitely to sustain the target growth in GDP. Part of the adjustment must come from the achievement of a growth rate of exports in the vicinity of 7-8% or higher in volume terms. Faster export growth is needed not only to provide the foreign exchange to sustain the rapid growth in imports but also to allow foreign demand and competition to improve the efficiency of Indian industry. Finally, part of the adjustment should come from an increased net transfer of external assistance. 17. India's population policy continues to aim at reducing the birth rate to 30 births per thousand people by 1983 through completely voluntary acceptance of fertility control methods supplied by a family welfare system integrated with the supply of basic health, maternal and child health and nutrition services. Since 1977, the family planning achievements in terms of number of acceptors have been below that needed to achieve the 1983 goal or even to keep the birth rate from rising above its current level. The low performance is primarily the result of the reaction to the harsh birth control policies introduced during 1976. Since then family planning performance has been gradually returning to the rising trend which was discernible before it was disrupted by the intensive drive of 1976/77. Given continued support for the program of family welfare, Bank estimates indicate that India's rate of population increase should remain below 2% per annum and fall to 1.5% by about the year 2000. Despite the declining trend in the rate of population increase, a net reproduction rate (NRR) equal to one (replacement level) would only be achieved around the .ear 2020. At this time, the total population is estimated to reach 1.2 billion persons, an increase of about 84% over the mid-1979 level of 652 million. 18. In addition to stimulating overall economic growth and constraining population growth, reduction of poverty in India requires special attention to ways of raising the income and productivity of low-income groups. More than one-third of the world's poor live in India and more than 80% of the Indian poor belong to the rural households of landless laborers and small farmers. The prospects for alleviating their poverty by providing these families with more land are not good because of the virtual absence of uncultivated arable land, the slow progress in implementing land reform and the limited amount of land that would be available if land reform were carried out. Estimates of the amount of land that would be available if land reform were carried out vary greatly. One estimate is that there would be about 9 million hectares avail- able for distribution. This compares to roughly 45 million families in the two poorest groups in rural India: landless families and families owning less than one hectare of land, whose average holding is 0.31 hectares. An approach to the amelioration of poverty more promising than land reform is the creation of more employment opportunities for the landless and small farmers in rural areas. Although the basic thrust must come from the market by a more rapidly increasing agricultural output, there will be a role for employment-intensive rural works programs. The new Plan provides for increased rural employment both through direct employment schemes and through ambitious programs of investment in rural infrastructure in addition to the more general rural development programs.  PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 19. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 57 loans and 118 development credits to India totalling US$2,529 million and US$7,255 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$1,055 million had been repaid, and US$3,226 million was still undisbursed as of March 31, 1980. Bank Group disbursements to India in the current fiscal year through March 31, 1980, totalled US$517 million, representing an increase of about 44% over the same period last year. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of March 31, 1980, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 20. Since 1959, IFC has made 18 commitments in India totalling US$72.5 million, of which US$17.4 million has been repaid, US$7.6 million sold and US$6.9 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$40.6 million, US$31.5 mil- lion represents loans and US$9.1 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of March 31, 1980, is also included in Annex II (page 5). 21. In recent years, the emphasis of Bank Group lending has been on agriculture. The Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit operations and in providing direct support to major and medium irrigation. Marketing, seed development, agricultural extension, and dairying are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterprises. IDA financing of industrial raw materials and components for selected priority sectors has been instrumental in facilitating better capacity utilization in industry. The Bank Group has also been active in supporting infrastructure development for power, telecommunications, and railways. Family planning, water supply development, and urban investments have also received Bank Group support in recent years. 22. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, power, water supply and other infrastructure sectors remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs, particularly water and credit for on-farm investments, will continue to receive emphasis. Improved water management and intensification and streamlining of extension systems form an important institution-building aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to projects benefit- ting small farmers. The Bank Group's continuing role in the fertilizer sector also assists India in the more efficient provision of another key input in the agricultural growth process. Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, and urban development also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infra- structure and industrial investments will focus on those subsectors which have recently emerged as key constraints on India's overall growth, primarily power and transportation.  - 9 - 23. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of the development of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic reports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in part to the response of the aid community, India successfully adjusted to the changed world price situation of the mid 1970s. However, the need for increased foreign assistance to adjust to an even greater deter- ioration in balance of payments prospects during the 1980s by augmenting domestic resources and stimulating investment, remains. As in the past, Bank Group assistance for projects in India should include, as appropriate, the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity and competitiveness of the domestic capital goods industry. Consequently, the foreign exchange component tends to be small in most projects. This is particularly the case in such high-priority sectors as agriculture, irrigation, and water supply. 24. India's poverty and needs are such that as much as possible of India's external capital requirements should be provided on concessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support, and India should be regarded as credit- worthy for some supplemental Bank lending. The ratio of India's debt service to the level of exports was 12% in 1978/79 and is projected to remain below 20% through 1995/96. As of March 31, 1980, outstanding loans to India held by the Bank totaled US$1,516 million, of which US$556 million remained to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstanding of US$960 million. 25. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34%. of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with an estimated 62%, 27% and 38%, respectively, in 1978/79. On March 31, 1979, India's outstanding and dis- bursed external public debt was US$15.3 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was US$4.6 billion or 30% (IDA's US$4.0 billion and IBRD's US$0.6 bil- lion). Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1978/79, about 17.5% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group. PART III - URBAN TRANSPORT IN CALCUTTA Physical and Demographic Characteristics of the Calcutta Metropolitan District 26. The Calcutta Metropolitan District (CMD) stretches north and south for nearly 70 km along both sides of West Bengal's Hooghly River. For most of this distance it forms a narrow corridor along the limited area of elevated land close to the river. Competition for the high land on the banks of the river is keen, as much of the remaining land in the Hooghly's basin is low- lying, waterlogged, and unsuitable for settlement. The central core of the metropolitan area is on the east bank of the river in the city of Calcutta, or Calcutta Corporation, which has a population well in excess of three million.  - 10 - Howrah, Calcutta's twin city, lies on the west bank of the river, opposite the Calcutta Corporation. Both the Calcutta Corporation and Howrah are encircled by numerous municipalities, small towns, and semi-urban areas which extend north and south along the river and combine with the Calcutta Corporation and Howrah to make up the Calcutta Metropolitan District. 27. The CMD is the most populous urban agglomeration in all of India and the dominant urban center of eastern India, a region which includes nearly one- quarter of India's population. The estimated 9.9 million residents of the CMD comprise 46% of the urban population of the eastern region and 75% of the urban population of West Bengal, the State in which Calcutta is located. While in absolute terms its annual growth is impressive, the CMD is the most slowly growing large metropolis in India. Nevertheless, with its growth rate of 2.2% per annum, the CMD adds 200,000 persons annually to its population. This annual rise in population combines with the limited availability of elevated land in the CMD to produce extremely high population densities. P2pulation density in the Calcutta Corporation averages 33,000 persons per km , peaking to 44,000 persons per km in the central core of the city. These figures are significantly higher than density statistics for cities luch as Manhattan (26,000/km ), Bangkok (21,000/km ), and Tokyo (15,320/km ), whose infrastruc- ure and facilities greatly exceed Calcutta's and whose high-rise pattern of development acts to ease crowding, in contrast with Calcutta's low-rise design. The implication of Calcutta's density profile, then, is serious over-crowding, which has led to excessive demand on existing urban infrastructure. Municipal Administration 28. The CMD has been delineated as a unified planning region by the Government of West Bengal (GOWB). It is not, however, a single administrative unit. Local administration in the CMD is the responsibility of four district administrations, 35 municipal authorities, 61 non-municipal areas and 500 semi- rural units. Despite the proliferation of local authorities in the CMD, the State Government has a dominant role in the affairs of the region. Not only does it have authority to frame and enact legislation governing all activities of the local bodies, but it also provides these authorities with considerable financial and technical assistance. 29. In 1971, GOWB created the Calcutta Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA) and gave it overall responsibility for the planning, design, and, where necessary, execution of public works in the CMD. It is through this agency that the State Government acts to assure coordination of the activities of the many local authorities within the CMD as well as the programs of State-level sectoral agencies (e.g., the State Home (Transport) Department, the West Bengal Housing Board, etc.) which share responsibility for service provision within the metropolitan area. General Urban Transport Characteristics 30. The State Government has identified an area covering about 40% of the CMD as the most critical area in the effort to develop an integrated transit system for Calcutta. This area includes the Calcutta Corporation, the Howrah  - 11 - Municipality and seven contiguous local jurisdictions. It contains a popula- tion of about 5.5 million at present, projected to rise to 7.2 million by 1990/91, and covers the Central Business District and the major commercial, industrial, and residential areas of the CMD. 31. The general transport situation in this planning area is character- ized by startling service deficiencies. Only 6% of the surface space in this area is occupied by roads, which represents one of the lowest proportions in any major city in the world. In this restricted road space, buses, trams, trucks, taxis and private cars must compete with slow-moving vehicles (such as hand-drawn carts and rickshaws) and masses of pedestrians who spill over into the roadway due to inadequate footpath space. As a result, overall travel speed on major corridors averages 10-12 km per hour, slowing to 6 km per hour at chronic bottleneck points. 32. While walking is an important mode of transport in this planning area, with some 800,000 trips of longer than one kilometer made on foot each day, motorized transport clearly predominates. Motorized transport is pro- vided by about 3,000 buses and minibuses (State-owned and privately-owned), 100,000 private cars, 6,500 taxis, and about 10,000 trucks. The services provided by these vehicles are supplemented by rail services, which are provided by about 300 State-owned trams, as well as a suburban railway system serving 25 stations and operated by the Indian Railways. Finally, of about 30 ferry points on the Hooghly River in the CMD, six fall within this planning area, served by a substantial number of privately operated motor launches and boats. The split of t)tal passenger trips among these modes of transport within the planning a-ea is detailed below. Modal Split of Transit Passengers (1978/79) Number of Percentage Mode Daily Person Trips of Total (millions) State-owned buses 0.94 14.3 Private buses, regular 4.15 63.4 Private buses, mini /a 0.15 2.3 State-owned trams 0.73 10.7 Subtotal buses and trams 5.97 90.7 Railways 0.57 8.7 Ferries 0.04 0.6 TOTAL 6.58 100.0 /a Seating capacity of 20-30 passengers As this table reveals, mass transportation by buses and trams dominates the supply of transit services in the planning area.  - 12 - Bus and Tram Services in the CMD 33. Bus services in the CMD are provided by both private bus operations and by the State-owned Calcutta State Transport Corporation (CSTC). CSTC, the successor of the Calcutta State Transport Undertaking, founded in 1948, is one of the largest public sector undertakings of the GOWB, employing at present about 13,470 employees. It operates 48 routes for city service within the planning area, covering a route length of 650 km, as well as a network of long- distance routes stretching outside the CMD into parts of West Bengal, Bihar, and Orissa. In November 1979, the CSTC's total serviceable fleet consisted of about 1,100 buses, of which about 970 were for city service. 34. Until the early 1960's, CSTC's operations were characterized by continued fleet expansion, steady revenue increases, and surplus cash genera- tion. However, beginning in about 1962/63, CSTC entered a period of serious decline. Labor discipline and morale deteriorated, resulting in low produc- tivity, poor maintenance of equipment, large-scale absenteeism and an asso- ciated decline in operational and financial performance. In the period 1960/61-1976/77, average effective outshedding 1/ fell from above 73% to below 40% and the average number of passengers carried per day decreased from about 1.1 million to 800,000. As a result, the ratio of total manpower to effectively outshedded buses rose to 30 staff members per bus (about twice an acceptable level) and CSTC moved from a position of modest revenue surplus in 1960/61 to a deficit of approximately US$12 million in 1976/77. Since 1976/77, when preparation of the proposed project began, CSTC has achieved marked performance improvements. Manning ratios have fallen to 25.5 per effectively outshedded bus, outshedding has increased to about 50%, the number of passengers carried per day has risen to about 960,000, and the rate of increase of CSTC's deficit has been cut in half. While CSTC still has a considerable distance to go, it appears that it has succeeded in halting a two decade decline. 35. Complementing CSTC's services in the transport planning area, and indeed surpassing CSTC in terms of fleet size and number of passengers carried, are the 2,000 privately-owned buses currently in operation. Reintroduced in 1966 after a six-year moratorium on private bus operations, these buses are largely individually-owned, although owners group themselves into associations, and financed by local banks. Private buses are licensed by the State Govern- ment's Public Vehicles Department and routes and associated fare structures and timetables are assigned by three Regional Transport Authorities operating in the planning area. 36. Tram services in Calcutta are provided by the State-owned Calcutta Tramways Company, Ltd. (CTC). Formed in 1881, CTC operated as a private com- pany registered in the United Kingdom until 1976, when, under an agreement between GOWB and CTC, the State Government took over full ownership of the Company. Actual management of the Company was taken over by GOWB in 1967, when a State Administrator replaced the incumbent general manager. CTC oper- ates 26 routes in the planning area and has a total fleet of 438 tramcars. 1/ The percentage of the total fleet that completes its scheduled daily trips.  - 13 - While CTC operated efficiently in its early years, once the eventual State Government take-over was agreed on in 1951, the Company curtailed its tram renewal and replacement programs to the detriment of operational efficiency and staff morale. Outshedding has fallen from about 84% of a total fleet of 500 tramcars in the 1950's to about 70% of a total fleet of 438 tramcars at present. Since part of the fleet is over 50 years old and requires spare parts which are now technologically obsolete and thus not available in the open market, present outshedding performance is really quite remarkable. However, operating as it does with a staff of about 9,100, or 33.5 per effectively outshedded tram, CTC shows considerable scope for productivity improvements. Under the influence of determined management and improved labor discipline, CTC began an upward trend in terms of efficiency in 1977. However, severe flooding in Calcutta in 1978 caused considerable damage to the tram fleet and electrical system from which CTC is only now recovering. 37. The deterioration in performance of CTC and CSTC over the last 15-20 years has resulted in a marked reduction in the quality of public mass transportation in Calcutta and an ever-widening gap between supply and demand for public transport. Thousands of passengers endure long delays, overcrowded facilities, and irregular service, which has resulted in an attitude of frustration and bitterness on the part of passengers and has, in turn, dis- couraged the Government from increasing fares in line with the substantial cost increases over the years. The result has been a vicious cycle of increas- ing subsidies to these two public undertakings, steady decay of their capital assets, and deteriorating morale and productivity. While the private sector has provided a considerable boost to the supply of transit services over the last decade, poor regulation and unreasonably low fares for private operators have led them to overload their buses, operate on only the most profitable routes, evade taxes and insurance payments, and default on bank loans. Clearly, bold financial and administrative measures are required to improve mass transit services in the CMD. Government Policy Toward Public Transport in the CMD 38. The Government of West Bengal has, up to the present, focused its efforts in the sector on easing traffic congestion in Calcutta through road improvements and extensions and traffic engineering and management schemes. While this program is continuing, the Government has now decided to launch a program to address directly the need for improved mass transportation in the CMD. A ten-year development program for mass public transit has been drawn up, the first stage ot which would concentrate on (i) improving the financial and operating performance of CSTC and CTC; (ii) removing unnecessary constraints to private bus operations; (iii) improving terminal facilities for CTC and CSTC and for privately-operated buses; (iv) rationalizing bus and tram route systems; and (v) continued improvements to road conditions and traffic manage- ment. It is this program the State Government has asked IDA to support. In addition, GOWB's own efforts will be complemented by a Government of India- financed north-south subway line scheduled for completion in 1986. While this subway line should ease the transit situation by providing approximately one million passenger trips per day in 1986, given the existing service shortfall and anticipated growth in demand for public transport, further development of surface transit in the CMD continues to be of critical importance.  - 14 - Bank Group Activities in the CMD 39. The Bank Group has financed two projects designed to alleviate cri- tical urban service deficiencies in the Calcutta Metropolitan District--the First and Second Calcutta Urban Development Projects approved in 1973 and 1977, respectively (Credit 427-IN for US$35 million and Credit 756-IN for US$87 mil- lion). These projects concentrated on improving primary infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, road access) in the metropolitan area to meet the most urgent service needs of the population. In addition, the second project in particular focused considerable effort on the task of strengthening urban planning and management capability in the CMD and on proper operation and maintenance of completed public works. While progress was slow under the first credit, now fully disbursed, the institutional development focus of the second project appears to have eased planning and implementation bottlenecks. The five-year investment program supported by the project is expected to be completed on schedule in 1981/82. In anticipation of the completion of this program, the State Government and the CMDA have be- gun to identify longer-term investment priorities. Among these is the criti- cal task of supplementing the road construction, traffic engineering, and traffic management programs which have been undertaken and are continuing as part of the two Bank Group-supported projects in Calcutta with further efforts to ease the still-considerable traffic congestion and improve public transport services in the metropolitan area. It is with this objective in mind and against the background of the city's on-going traffic and transportation program that the Government of West Bengal has requested Bank Group support for the proposed Calcutta Urban Transport Project. PART IV - THE PROJECT 40. The proposed project was appraised by a mission which visited India in October-November 1979. A report entitled "Staff Appraisal of the Calcutta Urban Transport Project" (No. 2884-IN, dated May 9, 1980) is being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. in April/May 1980. The Government of India and the Government of West Bengal were represented by a delegation coordinated by Mr. B.S. Lamba, Deputy Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Government of India (GOI). Project Description 41. The objective of the proposed project is to improve the quality and increase the quantity of mass transit services in the core transit planning area of the CMD (see para 30 above). More specifically, the project seeks to increase the financial and operational efficiency of CTC and CSTC and properly regulate and facilitate private bus operations. The project pursues these objectives in three ways. First, it is structured around a series of policy and administrative measures designed to improve the management and financial status of CSTC and CTC, to augment productivity in these two under- takings, and to foster improved private bus operations. Second, it supports a program of physical investments by CSTC, CTC and CMDA required to reverse the deterioration of physical assets which has handicapped the bus and tram undertakings, to reduce traffic congestion in the CMD, and to improve and  - 15 - expand the network of public transport terminals and passenger shelters. Third, it provides technical assistance to CSTC and CTC to assist them in project design and implementation, and to CMDA to augment its capacity for transport sector planning and for evaluation of the impact of the project itself. The project would be carried out over the period April 1980 through December 1983. The sections which follow outline individual project components. 42. Policy and Administrative Measures To Be Implemented. The policy and management reforms to be introduced during the project period fall into four basic categories: management improvement measures, productivity improve- ment measures, and financial reforms for CTC and CSTC, and policy measures to facilitate improved private bus operations. (a) Management Improvement Measures, CSTC and CTC. Management reform programs to be implemented during the project period have been prepared by both CSTC and CTC with the assistance of consultants. These programs call for the structural reorganization of each undertaking; introduction of new manage- ment methods (e.g., improved cost and quality control, accounting, and manage- ment information systems); strengthening of middle management through creation of additional positions, improvement of recruitment methods, and, in the case of CSTC, upward revision of salary scales; and introduction of in-house training programs for management and technical staff. A number of these reforms (e.g., sanctioning of new middle management positions, revision of CSTC pay scale) have already been carried out. The remainder would be intro- duced under t'-e direction of Management Support Units (comprised of senior staff members assisted by consultants) to be created in each undertaking. The Management Support Units would be established and the proposed organi- zational restructuring of each undertaking accomplished by November 1, 1980 (Section 3.04, Project Agreement), adequate training staff for CSTC and CTC would be recruited by the same date (Section 3.03, Project Agreement), and general management and operations training programs for CTC and CSTC would be introduced by January 1, 1981 (Section 3.03, Project Agreement). (b) Productivity Improvement Measures, CSTC and CTC. With the objective of improving labor productivity and reducing absenteeism, CSTC and CTC have introduced, with the agreement of their unions, bonus-incentive schemes to reward productivity on the part of staff members. This effort to increase productivity will of course be complemented by the organization and management improvements to be implemented in both undertakings (see (a) above) and the project-supported physical investment programs (see para 43 below), both of which are designed to increase operational efficiency. Finally, CSTC and CTC have prepared overall manpower budgets for the project period which reflect their intention to exercise a new discipline over staff recruitment. Through attrition and controlled recruitment to reduce labor redundancy, CSTC intends to reduce its manning ratio from 25.5/effectively outshedded bus at present to 16.3 by the end of the project period (1983/84). Similarly, CTC's manning ratio would be cut from 33.5/effectively outshedded tram to 25.5 over the project period. Minimum performance levels for both undertakings (i.e., effective outshedding, manning ratios, kilometers run per bus/tram per day) have been agreed on (Section 3.11, Project Agreement) and actual performance would be closely monitored throughout the project period.  - 16 - (c) Financial Reforms, CSTC and CTC. With the objective of making CSTC and CTC financially self-supporting within ten years, GOWB has proposed a financial rehabilitation program for the two undertakings consisting of the followiag elements: (i) restructuring of the capital of CTC and CSTC as of April 1, 1980; (ii) annual reduction of the operating ratio of expenditures to revenues for each undertaking; and (iii) stabilization of the level of GOWB's annual subsidy to each undertaking. The capital restructuring which has been effected involved forgiveness of a portion of the accumulated debt each undertaking owed the State Government and revaluation of both CSTC's and CTC's assets. It has resulted in debt/equity ratios of approximately 67:33 for CSTC and CTC. GOWB has agreed that this debt/equity ratio would not be exceeded during the project period (Section 4.04, Project Agreement). In addition, GOWB would reduce the operating ratio of CSTC and CTC by an average of 10% per year over the project period with the objective of con- tinuing to reduce these ratios throughout the decade in order to bring them to a level of approximately 1.0 by 1989/90 (Section 4.05, Project Agreement). The State Government fully recognizes that this will require significant fare increases for CTC and CSTC during the project period and beyond. In order to accomplish the agreed reductions in CSTC's and CTC's operating ratios, GOWB would introduce a fare increase of at least 25% for buses and trams operating in the project area by April 1, 1981 (Section 4.05, Project Agreement) and subsequent fare increases as necessary. Finally, GOWB would stabilize its annual subsidies to CSTC and CTC at Rs 105 million (US$12.5 million equiva- lent) and Rs 55 million (US$6.5 million equivalent), respectively, beginning in 1980/81 (Section 4.03, Project Agreement). These subsidies would be in the form of grants and have been calculated to correspond in magnitude to the average deficit expected in CSTC and CTC over the period 1980/81 to 1989/90, plus the accumulated depreciation of assets acquired under the project. It is anticipated that by the end of the period 1980/81-89/90, each undertaking should have reached financial self-sufficiency, which will obviate the need for further GOWB subsidies. GOWB would ensure that any surplus cash generated by either undertaking during the project period would be channelled into a depreciation fund and would not be used for fleet expansion until after the close of the project period (Section 4.03, Project Agreement). (d) Policy Measures Relating to Private Bus Operations. Bus operations in the project area are currently governed by the Public Vehicles Department (PVD), which registers vehicles, issues driving licenses, and collects road taxes, and by three Regional Transport Authorities (RTAs), chaired by the Director of PVD, which sanction route permits to bus operators, specifying the associated timetable, fare structure, and service standards. The State Government, which oversees these bodies, has identified weaknesses in their staffing and operation which inhibit their ability to properly plan and govern private bus operations. In particular, the PVD is not adequately staffed to allow it (through the RTAs) to effectively ensure that private bus operators comply with their agreed timetables and regulated safety standards. Moreover, the RTAs' current practice of issuing temporary 17-week permits for private bus routes, combined with relatively low fares for private buses, places unnecessary constraints on private operators. To remedy this situation GOWB will, by April 1, 1981, convert all temporary route permits for private buses operating in the project area to permanent permits with a validity of  - 1 7 not less than three years (Section 3.08(c), Project Agreement) and bring pri- vate bus fares into parity with CSTC fares (Section 3.09, Project Agreement). GOWB will also, during the project period, strengthen PVD's staff to enable it to adequately regulate and supervise private bus operations (Section 3.08(b), Project Agreement). Finally, in order to ensure that private and public bus routes are properly planned and allocated, the State Government has established a Transit Planning Cell within CMDA to prepare proposals for updating public vehicle route systems and to monitor public vehicle services in the CMD. Changes to the bus or tram route systems recommended by this cell (on the basis of studies such as those to be carried out under the project; see para 44 below) would be reviewed by a permanent committee, to be established by November 1, 1980 and to include representatives of PVD, CSTC, CTC and CMDA (Section 3.08(a), Project Agreement). Before submitting proposed route schemes to the State Government, this committee would hold hearings at which private operators would be allowed to present their views. 43. Physical Investments. (a) CSTC. The project would support the following investments by CSTC designed to improve the Corporation's oper- ational efficiency: (i) procurement of about 530 buses and spare parts to replace over-age buses and to permit a small fleet augmentation; (ii) remodel- ling and re-equipping of the existing Belghoria central workshop and con- struction of a new workshop at Belghoria; (iii) construction and equipping of one new bus depot and remodelling and re-equipping of four existing depots; and (iv) construction of a training center for CSTC staff. Bus replacement requirements have been calculated on the basis of CSTC's existing policy, which assumes an average economic life of eight years for buses. However, actual performance of buses under the improved maintenance systems to be implemented under the project will be closely monitored. CSTC will intro- duce an information system adequate to review its bus retirement policy and, in consultation with IDA and not later than March 31, 1982, review its bus procurement program, on the basis of the information gathered, in order to ensure that an appropriate fleet size is maintained (Section 3.05, Project Agreement). The new workshop at Belghoria will operate on the unit exchange system, repairing defective units (e.g., gear boxes, engines, fuel injection pumps) sent in from the depots, which will maintain a stock of replacement, or "float", units at all times in order to minimize down time due to break- downs. Once this new workshop is completed, the existing workshop at Belghoria will be remodelled to permit it to specialize for the most part in chassis renovation and bus body building. The depot construction and renovation program will ensure adequate accommodation for the total CSTC fleet by March 1983. (b) CTC. Project-supported investments in CTC would include: (i) a tram rehabilitation program, providing for acquisition of 75 new tramcars, rebuilding of 60 tramcars, and substantial overhaul of 105 tramcars; (ii) modernization of CTC's workshop at Nonapukur and construction of a training facility for CTC staff; (iii) upgrading of CTC's electrical system, including improvements to overhead traction and underground cable systems as well as upgrading of the capacity of six existing power substations and construction of one new substation; (iv) rehabilitation of the existing track system; (v) modernization of seven depots and three passenger terminals; and (vi) improve- ments to the workshop and depot lighting systems and to the internal telecom- munications system of the tram company, which is essential to ensuring quick  - 18 - reporting of breakdowns and adequate communication between line operators, depots, and workshops. These investments would allow CTC to operate a service- able fleet of approximately 380 trams by June 1983 and to follow a regular two-year cycle for normal tram renovation and overhaul, in place of the three-year cycle now enforced by lack of adequate repair plant and equipment and inefficient organization of repair facilities. (c) CMDA. CMDA's investments under the project would focus on (i) reduc- ing traffic congestion and improving efficiency of road use in the central city through the implementation of a program of traffic engineering and management schemes along several major transit corridors (to complement those schemes being undertaken under the Second Calcutta Urban Development Project); and (ii) improving facilities for public and private bus operators and passengers through construction of four off-street bus terminals for public and private buses, improvement of fifteen existing private bus terminating points, and construction of about 1,500 passenger shelters along major transit corridors. The traffic engineering and management schemes would be planned and executed by CMDA's Traffic Engineering Unit. GOWB has agreed to strengthen this unit by November 1, 1980 (Section 3.06, Project Agreement), in order to ensure its capacity to carry out its responsibilities under the project. Recruits are now being sought for 15 new positions already sanctioned for the unit. The individual traffic engineering and management schemes to be undertaken will be formulated on the basis of traffic studies being carried out under the on-going Second Calcutta Urban Development Project. The schemes to be included in the project will be identified in consultation with IDA (Section 3.07, Project Agreement) within an overall budget of approximately US$6 million equivalent, which has been determined on the basis of CMDA's esti- mated execution capacity. In order to ensure full realization of the potential benefits of CMDA's investments under the project, the State Gov- ernment would ensure adequate maintenance of all roads on which traffic engineering or management improvements are undertaken (Section 2.07, Project Agreement). 44. Technical Assistance. CSTC, CTC and CMDA have engaged local consul- tants during project preparation to assist them in the planning and design of their investment programs. The proposed project would support continued con- sultancy assistance to these agencies for completion of detailed engineer- ing, preparation of tender documents and construction supervision. The project would also support technical assistance to CMDA for studies and surveys related to review and rationalization of public transit routes in the project area (which would be the responsibility of the Transit Planning Cell; see para 42(d) above), for associated baseline socio-economic studies of the geographical distribution of low-income households and the socio-economic characteristics of public transit passengers, and for design of an evaluation system (to be implemented by CMDA) which would permit, inter alia, evaluation of the impact of the project on different socio-economic groups in the project area. Project Implementation 45. The project would be implemented primarily by CSTC, CTC, and CMDA under the direction of a Chief Project Officer responsible for project adminis- tration, coordination, and monitoring. A senior State Government official  - 19 - has been appointed to fill the position of Chief Project Officer. GOWB would ensure that this position would be filled at all times by an officer of suit- able experience and that the Chief Project Officer would be provided with ade- quate staff, including, inter alia, a chartered cost accountant (Section 3.10, Project Agreement). Overall policy guidance would be provided by a Project Steering Committee established by GOWB in February 1980. The Project Steering Committee would be chaired by the Chief Project Officer and would include the Secretary, Department of Public Works (CMD), the Finance Secretary (GOWB), the Chief Officers of CSTC, CTC, and PVD, and the Director-General for Planning and Development of CMDA. Project Costs and Financing 46. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$121.7 million equiv- alent, of which US$25.1 million, or 21% of total project cost, represents for- eign exchange costs. Physical contingencies of 5% have been applied to cost estimates for bus procurement and plant and equipment, of 10% to civil works costs estimated on the basis of detailed design, and of 15% to the costs of the tram rehabilitation program and to civil works costs estimated on the basis of preliminary engineering. Price contingencies have been applied dif- ferentially for local and foreign costs and total approximately US$19 million equivalent, or 15.6% of total project cost. The major components of project cost are detailed in the Credit and Project Summary on page (i) of this report. 47. The proposed credit of US$56 million would finance approximately 50% of project costs net Df taxes and duties, which are estimated at US$9.7 mil- lion, and would cover all foreign exchange costs. GOI would make the proceeds of the credit available to GOWB on the standard terms and conditions for State development projects. GOWB would, in turn, provide funds equivalent to the proceeds of the credit, together with the balance of project costs, to CMDA through its regular budgetary allocations and to CSTC and CTC as loans and equity. GOWB loans to CTC and CSTC would carry 6.25% interest and would have a maturity of 20 years with four years' grace. Retroactive financing of up to US$2.0 million is proposed for expenditures incurred after April 1, 1979 for consultancy services required for project preparation, for minor preliminary civil works at CTC's Nonapukur workshop, and for procurement of a small quantity of components required for the early phases of CTC's tram renovation program. Procurement and Disbursement 48. Contracts for plant, equipment and vehicles with a total value esti- mated at US$65.1 million equivalent 1/ will be awarded under the project. Of these, contracts totalling about US$56 million equivalent would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guide- lines. These contracts would cover bus chassis and spare parts (US$27.1 mil- lion); new tramcars (US$15.0 million); and workshop equipment, rails, switch 1/ Including contingencies but net of taxes and duties (as are all figures in this section) and of the costs of erection, which are included in civil works.  - 20 - points, electrical components, trolley wires, and traction poles (US$13.9 million). Domestic bidders would be granted a margin of preference equal to 15% or the relevant customs duty, whichever is lower. The remaining US$9.1 million in plant, equipment, and vehicles would include items such as furni- ture and fittings for workshops, stores, and offices; tram bodies (US$1.0 million) and bogies (US$1.3 million); 30 auxiliary vehicles (of 10 different types); and limited quantities of workshop equipment, accessories and hand tools. These contracts would be individually relatively small, distributed across the three implementing agencies, and required at different times during the project period, and would thus not be attractive to foreign bidders. They would be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding according to procedures acceptable to IDA. Bus bodies for CSTC buses (US$6.3 million) would be constructed in CSTC's own workshop utilizing existing installed capacity. Materials for the bodies would be procured on the basis of local competitive procedures acceptable to IDA. In order to improve cost and quality control in its bus body building operations, CSTC would introduce an improved cost accounting and repair recording system for bus bodies by April 1, 1981 (Section 3.02, Project Agreement). 49. The total value of civil works under the project is estimated at US$31.0 million. The civil works are individually small and scattered over area and time and would be unlikely to attract foreign bidders. The bulk of these works would be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding under normal State procedures. However, civil works for tram track renovation (US$3.8 million), which must be carefully timed in order to disrupt CTC's operations as little as possible, would be carried out departmentally by CTC on force account. 50. The remainder of project cost (US$19.3 million) consists of tech- nical assistance (US$6.0 million), project administration (US$3.6 million), and taxes and duties (US$9.7 million). 51. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against: (a) 100% of foreign or local ex-factory expenditures for plant, equipment and vehicles procured through international competitive bidding (excluding bus chassis); (b) 50% of expenditures for bus chassis; (c) 30% of expenditures for plant, equipment and vehicles procured through local competitive bidding; (d) 30% of expenditures for civil works (excluding force account); and (e) 50% of expen- ditures for consultants' services. Benefits and Risks 52. The investments in CTC and CSTC and policy measures in support of improved private bus operations to be implemented under the proposed project would increase the efficiency of bus and tram services in the project area and thus both the quantity and quality of transport services to the travelling public. It is expected that by the end of 1983/84, CSTC will have succeeded in providing an additional one million passenger trips per day, at decreased load levels per bus, while CTC will have succeeded in increasing its daily passenger trips by 470,000. At the same time, proper licensing and regulation of private buses and implementation of appropriate fares would facilitate a rise in their service standards, in terms of reliability of operations as well  - 21 - as safety. Over the project period, then, the populace would benefit through increased mobility as well as through reduction in waiting time due to improved reliability of public and privately-operated transport services. The aggre- gate economic rate of return of the CSTC and CTC components is estimated at 23% (CSTC: 24%; CTC: 21%). 53. CMDA's traffic management and engineering investments would improve road and traffic conditions along major corridors, leading to savings to vehicle operators and passengers in both travel time and vehicle operating costs. Off- street bus terminals and bus passenger shelters would considerably improve travelling and operating conditions for passengers and service providers, and would significantly reduce traffic hazards and congestion now caused by loca- tion of terminals on main roads. Finally, the route rationalization study to be carried out under CMDA's supervision would provide an essential basis for efficient public transport management and planning. 54. The project faces three fundamental risks. First, there is the ever-present risk that the combined program of management reform and physical and financial rehabilitation CSTC and CTC are to implement will strain their capabilities, particularly in view of the disruption they may be undergoing due to the simultaneous program of road improvements in the project area and construction of the underground railway. However, CTC and CSTC have demon- strated a capacity to achieve significant performance gains during the project preparation period, even without additional physical investments. Moreover, considerable care has been taken to set a reasonable implementation schedule on the basis of relatively conservative estimates of the agencies' execution capacity, and to phase construction in order to minimize disruptions to the operation of these undertakings. The second risk arises from the possibility that the past pattern of labor indiscipline and unrest, in CSTC in particular, may be difficult to break. However, the fact that CSTC's and CTC's bonus- incentive schemes were introduced with the cooperation of the labor unions and that labor productivity has, in fact, improved during the project preparation period is seen as a sign that problems of labor management can, in fact, be eased, although surely not totally eliminated in the near term. Finally, improved financial performance on the part of CTC and CSTC will require fare increases, which may be ill-received by a public accustomed to under-priced public transport. Nevertheless, the State Government is aware of the impor- tance of these fare hikes, and, in view of the associated risk and ramifica- tions of public dissatisfaction, has committed itself to demonstrating and publicizing early service improvements, as a preparatory step for the scheduled fare increases. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 55. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Asso- ciation, the draft Project Agreement between the Association and the State of West Bengal, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately.  - 22 - 56. Special conditions of the Project are listed in Section III of Annex III. 57. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 58. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President May 14, 1980  ANNEX I INDIA - SOCXAL IICAT5RS DATA SUM Page 1 of 5 IEPERI nCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SO. 3. ) fNDL - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 3287.6 SAHE SAME NEXT HIGUCE AGCULTURAL 1818.3 MOST RECENT t20GRAPIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 A ESTIATE /b REGION /c GR1OUP d GROUP / GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 60.0 90.0 180.0 191.1 209.6 467.5 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRtAS OF COAL EQIIVALEIfT) 142.0 1S1.0 218.0 69.1 83.9 262.1 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPATION, mT-YEAR (fLLIONS) 434.9 547.6 631. 7 . unBN POPULATION (PECENT OF TOTAL) 17.9 19.7 20.7. 13.2 16.2 24.6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAU 2000 (MLIONS) 973.0 STATIONARY POPUATION (MILLIONS) 1643.0 YEAR STATIONHY POPULATION IS REACUED 2150 POPULATIOY DENS IT PER SQ. W8. 132.0 167.0 192.0 86.6 49.4 45.3 PEI SQ. EM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 247.0 308.0 347.0 330.2 252.0 149.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 TYS. 40.8 42.5 42.0 44.3 43.1 45.2 1S-64 YrS. 55.7 54.6 55.0 52.4 53.2 51.9 65 YlS. AND ABOVE 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 URBAN 2.5L& 3.3 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.3 CRUDE BIRT RATE (PUR THOUSAND) 43.0 40.0 35.0 44.4 42.4 39.4 CRUDE DEATE PATE (PER THOUSAND) 21.0 17.0 14.0 16.4 15.9 11.7 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTMRS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) 64.0 3782.0 4518.0 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOM) .. 12.0 16.9 7.9 12.2 13.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF POOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 100.0 102.0 101.0 99.4 98.2 99.6 PER CAPITA SUPPL'' Of CALORIES (PERCENT OP REQUIREMENTS) 95.0 92.0 89.0 93.0 93.3 94.7 PROTEINS (GRARS PElR DAY) 51.0 53.0 48.0 56.1 52.1 54.3 OF WHICE ANIMAL AND PULSE 19.0 16.0 12.6 10.4 13.6 17.4 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 28.0 22.0 18.0 19.2 18.5 11.4 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (TEARS) 43.0 48.0 51.0 49.1 49.3 54.7 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 134.0 .. .. 105.4 68.1 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL ., 17.0 33.0 31.5 26.3 34.4 URBAN .. 60.0 83.0 63.9 58.5 57.9 RURAL * 6.0 20.0 20.1 15.8 21.2 ACCESS TO ECETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0 15.7 16.0 40.8 URBAN .. 85.0 87.0 66.8 65.1 71.3 RURAL .. 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 27.7 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 5800.Oh 4890.0 3135.0 7107.9 11396.4 6799.4 POPULATION PER NURSLNG PERSON 9630.0h 5220.0 6320.0 12064.0 5552.4 1522.1 POPULATION PER 'dOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2590.0/i 2020.0 1231.0 2738.4 1417.1 726.5 ULRAN .. .. .. .. 197.3 272.7 RURAL .. .. .. .. 2445.9 1404.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 24.8 27.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD .OTAL 5.2 .. 5.2 .. 5.3 5.4 JRAN 5.2 .. 4.8 .. 4.9 5.1 RURAL 5.2 .. 5.3 .. 5.4 5.5 AVERAGE NLUBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM 1ITAL 2.6 2.3 .. uR3AN .. .. .. lURAL .. ACCESS TO ELICTRICITY (PERCENT DF DSELL.NCS, -OTAL .. .. .. .. 22.5 S. 'TRAN .. . .. .. 17.8 45.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. .. 9  ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATOIRS DATA SHEZ INDLA REFNWIICE GROUPS (ADJUSTED LAyEAGS - MOST RECENT EST7TE) a Sum SAME NEXT NIGiU MOST RECENT GEOCRPIC INCOtlE DICOHE 196O /b 1970 /b ESTnHATZ /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /a EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROtININ RATIOS PRIMAY: TOTAL 61.0 72.0 79.0 59.5 63.3 82.7 KALE 80.0 87.0 94.0 74.9 79.1 87.3 PED6I 40.0 55.0 63.0 43.7 48.4 75.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 29.0 28.0 19.5 16.7 21.4 MALU 30.0 39.0 38.0 27.8 22.1 33.0 FIEMLE 10.0 17.0 18.0 10.0 10.2 15.5 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (S OF StCaODY) 6.0 6.0/i *- 1.3 5.6 9.8 PUPIL-TEACBER RATIO PIRIAIY 29.0 40.0 42.0 42.2 41.0 34.1 SECONDARY 16.0 17.0 .. .. 21.7 23.4 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 28.0 33.0 36.0 25.5 31.2 54.0 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER T'OUSAND POPLTLATION 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.8 9.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER TROUSAD POPULATION 5.0 21.0 24.0 15.5 27.2 76.9 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.1 0.5 .. 2.4 13.5 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.0 6.2 5.3 18.3 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDACE PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.8 .. 1.1 2.5 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 188670.0 226870.0 261000.0/k FEMALE (PERCENT) 31.3 32.6 32.2 21.4 24.8 29.2 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 73.0 73.0 73.0 66.3 69.4 62.7 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.6 10.0 11.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 43.0 40.2 39.2 35.8 36.9 37.1 MALE 57.1 52.3 51.3 52.3 52. 4 48.8 FEMALE 27.9 27.1 26.2 15.7 18.0 20.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OP PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 26.7 26.3/1 .. .. 15.2 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF ROUSEHOLDS 51.7 48. 97T . - * 48.2 LOWEST 20 PERCENT O HOUSEHOLDS 4.1 6.77 .. .. .. 6.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OP IlOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.271 .. .. .. 16.3 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 83.0 66.5 99.2 241.3 RURAL .. .. 73.0 74.2 78.9 136.6 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. .. 91.9 179.7 RURAL .. .. 50.0 50.4 54.8 103.7 ESTI=ATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY LNCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 47.0 44.3 44.1 24.8 RURAL .. .. 52.0 52.4 53.9 37.5 Not available Noc applicable. NOTES /a The adjusced group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Goverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer co any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977. /c South Asia; /d Low Income (S280 or less per capita 1976); /e Lower Middle Income (S281-550 per capita, 1976); If 7978 mid-year population is estimated at 640.4 million; Li 1951-60; 'h 1962; [195; !j 1967; /k 1978 mid-year labor force is estimated at 261 million; /1 1964-b5. Most Recenc Escimate of GNP per capita is for 1978. August, 1979  ANNEX t DEyugITICUS Ol WA INIATR Page 3 of 5 Notes: Although the data are dean from ore generally judged the meat authoritative and reliable, it should also be meted that they amy sos hr leteran- tionally coparable becaue of the 1ob of etanderdleed definitiose and e-epta used by different coutries is oolievtisg tie data. The data ar, toarthele-, usefici to deocibe orders of sagitude, indioats treads, sad ebraterise ectais -jor diff-ereoe bet-e coutr-es. Thr adjusted group aerrae f r ah indi-ator ar popslatino-eighted geometric men, eoluddag the rotremevls of the indicator and the mot populated ovutryie ac orup.tac t lac of date, gronpavege of all iadioators for Capital Surplos Oil oporters and of iodioators of Ao.eus to Wator acid Eocrta hisp-oomi, Hoosiog, Isoom otribtios and ery for other o.utry gr-pe are popafltios-weightrd geomteio aeas ulthout eolso f the -otr-m ca-e sod the moo popolstdouty laetervr of eonties ma the indicators dependa os avilabilItyolf datat sod is sot uniform, outico mut hr vorrolard In e-sue arrages of oeindicator to -anther. Thes avrage ar metyusfs saprel-tia ofesete .ale mie. coparing the cluea of oar indicator at a time snag tie coutry and referenee groups. LiAt) hIlEA (thousad aq.k.) A-.es to iEcreta Dispsa (peroeto ouair totul ura,ad cisra - Ttl-Totalourfaoe area coprisleg land area and islanl aes ubro epe(oa,ubn an:dfral sereed by ecereta diopos- a Agr-Iotura1 -1 Bat reoct estimate of agicultural1 area oaed temporarily per-stgage of their repootbi- poplations. Enoreta disposal ma too lode or- e Inacet for cro ps, paoturos, erit and Aitches gardess or to tie collectilo and disposal1, with or sitiout treabent, of hun .... eets lie fa -e and suertrby o-ter-bree systems or the us of pit pricie and o-i1ar iPPER CAPITA )USi) G NP pee ospits -stlmats at careet sarit prices, Poltbos see Phscan - Poplatioc dicided by eunier of peacticiog pbysicians calcoae ysn or ice aetiod as World Bank Atlas (1976-7h basis); qulfldfo eia oola ncriyIeee Vbt. 19Th, and 197 data. Pmpltios per Nur-ig Persos- Popubatioc doc-ed by cooler of p-at-ciog sal, djIEPhA COhNSUAtTIhN PER CAPITA - Assoa. coe-apti-o of csr is negy and femal grndsateaiier-, pratica-or1 and --cioast corset (coaland igoie, ptrole , otural gas and hyder-, n-ce- and go- Peultio bsia e -ttl ra,andeul- Popsiatioc 1totl, oct0I oleal elvogtecoity so kilogram of coa eqo-ealet per capita; 1960, and rura) diotded by their `1 repcbvvantbrofhstabosn ilii 197O, and i97t data, pub lic and pr-cte generl sod npe-ili-d h-topotal ano rehobiLitati-c c-oter Hospitals arrI esthIisbnettn per-netly otaffed by at lest ccv hy,piocian POPULATION ADi VCTAL STATISTICS Sotablishoeto prooidisg prio-ipoly osotodial car soI ot is bood Roca TIcta1 PoyulatH.n) Mh79ear tlo(- iv of July 1, b9th, 19T70, acd hooitait,I icue_, include health an mdica oet... cot penaet sy taflo U1977 daca. by a phyilcian (hut by a ardoa1 asitat cus, mdnf, et.)ouh offer bris Popalati-o (cercet oftotal) . Ptio i urban to total pipulstico; ic-patient a-ondation and provide a alted range of nedral facolot-ec *hffereot definition of urban trea as affetctounparahility of data AdIuooprhsua e oa aIn fonoic oo oougiCo uogcutries; itO, 197C, nod 1975 dots.aoisodvddb h cano ofboo ?sitiyP-jeotioc Pcpoiatinaiy-o P000 - C, orvet pop,ibatios proj-etIos art lae-d In HOUSiING 1971 total population by gr and sex and thie mertality and f-eille Averan lice of H-ihl peso e household) - total, icier, and rura - est-e feojeotioc paramters for ertalitLy rtate comprise cI three A hou.eholdcostsfagru oEfIidolul obo chan lviip qoartern arc ie_1lsusoitg life -pe-tany at birth iacrelig with o-otey-a tbei -a el.A bo-dn- or lodger may or nsW t ooi,dd is the per Ieapits ico-me _tee, and femle life topsetanoy stbilioiug at hout"'Old for otatistec'lp oe. 77.1 pess. Th e yrantera for fertility rate also har three level erAget naire of -psssper;coo - total, urban, soi rura - ucerge ouch- -tisg deolin ais fertilit aecordiog to ilom lece and past of Persons PI, rca is n urnban, and rural occpi sd o_ono ..oIol d-ellios>, tea ly. lcso pofra . Eac sntry i te sigeed us of these reapeoi-ely. DOelisge ecciudde o-pran truture and usoocpird ptr: ,iiooobnaioaof mrtaloty and fertility t-eda for p-oJetiot A-oea to tlnotribety (percent of du-liao - ttal, i-han In rural 1- C tp-rpoe. osatinolt dvlszu eboriiy is ia quater _as p-ceetso: 0itti-eary popultloot lsisotati ...cy populatios there iteogr-ti tota, urba, and rural doeb1ocguce-petieely. sic the 11b rate isqua to the death rate, and also tie age ucutacte remins contant. This is achieved Isly after fertility rates EDUICATION dechice ti thie rplae.t Leverl of anit toot reproduotio rate, -h.. Adjusted t-rlrleot atico eahgersIo of anme replace itself co-tly. The statioory pups- _reyshol-totl eale and female -dros total, sale ok femaleI enrol- latlorosoeeatetimated on tie basic of the projected characteristics sent of ali ageo at the pri-sry 1e-el nopercetages of -psytlie prisary ofthe ppulsti.o is ate ysac 2000, and th, rate of deelise of fertility sohoo1-sge poplti-c; cealy incldes obilr-c aged ',-II y_r hut raet npsnet eeII . adj-nte fur differeot lstho o primar yzeiuoatioo 'Ice _.ctric-ith lear tatlesryP platiun ii enahed - The pear ekes stationa.ry poplatios abesleuaioerlst a esord lc perc--t oooepopil. olie has hero -vahed. ac 7blo o%bov the offticil sohol age. D-uitlcpoity ..o-dar school - total, male and female - Connotedacaoi:ociar fcc sq. k.. - Phd-pea popohatiuc per cusar kilome ter (iou h-otars) of education requires at leat four year of ppyrc-d p-oec i-otcutui.; octal araproides geaneral acti..e.l,-orteache trahi.ig iooruot-t-: C., pupil. Per eq. Ian ariculturl land - Com~puted so bshoe for agri-ultral land anually of 12 to 17 fran of agI: vorepudkenco coo -c ae-,icclly Illy. vo-luded. Pcpulatiooel t-uturvn-oot( - Childre (A-lb yeas,arIngaedctinlsrlissot pr-eov-t of -voodury - Vcoatico.. Iii titut.tn sobd pears6 ,and retIrd 56 year and ver sprotg o i-er technical, lodusttrial, or other progr- ohich op-ct, odep-od-otlyo rooltioo itI, 1971,i an d1977 data. depurtse.to f.secondary i-stitutioss. P:1p.4sti Irih Rote ) pernet) -total - Annal er-th rates of total aid- Pupil-teanher ratio - prienry, and -ecodar - Tottl otdeoto -soI'd in yea populati-s for '9VWhA lphl-71,, and970-77. primary and --nd-ry 1-1el divided by curbe c.f teahers ith,o crr foosltiur GIr.th bte -ecet) ra - Aesual1 groeh rateo of ura uokigioen po~oiletoos fo 1950-C, 1500-7b, andI17-5 Adolt ltre rttel ) p-erot) -literte siubte (able to rend sod -rit,a Crude bIrch Pate or thouand) - Asissa Ice biethn poe th-uand of cod- a po-etoge of total sdult populatici aged 1 y0-c and cov. Year Ppopoltion;P1 0, 1970, and 1977 data. Crude heath ists (per thouand) - Arocal deatht per th-uand .1 sod-yea CONSUMtPTION po1oltioc; 1960l, 1970, and 1977 data. Pa-sntgr for (per thounand popolatio.. Pasuvogec our -opr-u stOc I0c troco Osprouetios iat A-kerage sanbr of daught-r a s=es ill bea "eItIng less than eight perso-; eolisanhulan-oc, heaee ano nilitary Ic ho -rml rep-ud-tic- period sf the coperinoesaP _rio g-eh IIIv upe_ifI fertliy .r... uualy fi-y-pa aceuge- ending is 1*60, 2!dcPevcro(e thuoano pupolaio-) - All types ofeolers 1970, sod 1975. broadoasot eea pulc e thusn of population; ..c l,sdeeuIiioeo-e Pab laniag - iAonpt-r, A-.Iua (th-uands) - Annual tanker of reoecrrInoanrssad is year sins regi tttio f rt sAo. _ _.ortuuIn acetoof bihth--otr-b de-i-s under cip,ioe of national fenoly e'ffect; dat fotrreen years con cot he -oparsie since -...tcA n p_aoto prongraT. shoIsh _ o_ osiug Pselly lanoiogdser~~(percent 'of ssa-iod wo-nee - P-eretage of srsed TOxeceivr (pr thouand populatios) - CTVre-i-r for brotoonot t,RI ercei sosesnof bhild-boai- gr 71-1 ers rho us birth-otr-1 dcvees public Per th-uand population; -ooldes uhio--sd TP rei-ri d ti toall enecid coen is -ss ag grop, and in peso she.e registration of TV sets oat It ffect. Newspaper Circulation (per thousad 22 latuon)d-IOboes the soveage -ov-ulai- Fnub ANI) NoITRITION of dailygsea interest _eiPap. ,g defined asu rodos publication Ivire of ood Produtico herCapita )1969-71=1001) - Indee of per capita decoted primarily to reo-diog general tees. It'is conidered to be "dully" an.u.I prodietio- ofal fced cosasditirs P-odutioseo-odes sed and if it oppears at least four tins a see-k, fvdsd is n 1oirdary. psurbasi . -fsdities cover priesry goode't Cinema Annua AtsI rnprCapita see Ana - se-d 00 thvou Ibecfolcito ie.g. oagc- e i.ttead of sugar) sich are edible and cotaic Euriens tld hoin tIhe yar,iodlg ttoa to dri--ic cino-a and _otile (e. cffee ad toos ar e-olded) Aggregtat produetiow uf eth -tnfy unts. ihse sctio_a aerags producer prhe_wsight_. Per -spita nuPpph of -al-ien 'P'ret of requireents) -Cfspuard from LABOR PORCh e-rgy equieslet :,f set food oppliriavalaleh -cutry per capIta Total labor Pores (th-ando) - foo...niotIly actio p-rsoc, i-lsdicA cr0- Per day. SAsiable supplies coprise dk..estie pr-duvti, importses forees and oemploysd tut ec-loding hcu...i--u, stud-ets etc Defiolt -o ;oprts, adi changes itn,oo Net spplIes seclde anneal feed sed, cccrou onltriesar co.t conparable. quan~titie -td is fosd proersobg, and ho--e inaiot,ibuti-s enquire- lyup -yfet) - Peenie labor fovosoperes.tage of tical Ilabo furor me oe-e esimated by PAh based os phyoisogmIva ce-ds for nrmal pftgtr oe-ent( - abOo. oc, vPaoe,frory utc o uZtcity urd health e-osd-rng --cisansta1 teper..turs., body -cghts, fishieg no percetage of total labor firer. aead se ditibutIos of population, sod shoonig It percent for I.duatry (percent) - Labor free on mining, cosru it,enfnturiog .00 nteshoshold leonl. nIlrtrlrlty, ater and gas as psevetage of toallborforce. Pe cpta supyo rtu caepe a)-Poecvset o" pe artleipatlie iate ) erosa)t total, male, and e_leoe aric'Patins or eapita seI spply of fovd per day. Net supply of food Is dosiord an aeticity rates are -sapted as total, oe,adfeuo ao force as pe- aoeRquiremets fsr all coutriesIetblished by ASDA Iroelde for aIenae f total, male and feale population of allago respectivey itisas aIcu--ac of 61 gran of toctal Pecteis Per day ani 20 g-am of I*,1970, and 1975 lats. Thec are 'ILI s psotioipsti oncate foi anim:Ialdiandplse po,teit, of shvih 10 gram should be anlan proteis. ag-see u.trutore of thepopultion, adbgvc re.0feetinv Ths tand _rsr loser than those of 75 gram of total protein and aefroe nati.onll snuoe. 27 gran of aniIma pruteii as an averae for the -ord, propo..sd by PAO Eno-edi Ispaskesoy Ratio - Ratio of popolat-o -.odr 15 sh t5 and ove to itteTie oli food lurowy. hMlbr.os i g groP of 15-hi years. Poero-Pita orotele supply from aeml and pulse - Proteoin supply sf food dreve fre ..i. l and pulse is gram pr day. INCO5I DISTRIBUTION Chil(ae 1-)Nralt ae per tisaand) - Annual deaths per thouand Percentage of PrIvte Ine-e (both is cask and bind) - ie-ei-d by rIcet Is age groupl~i, years, oheilkrea in thisag rop for msdee-5 peor.eat, riches.t I percent, Poores t 20 pere-t, and poorest4oh peroot oping coutrie data derived from life tables ofh ..u.ehlds. HliLTli POVERTPf TARGiTE GPROUPS lfe hopocoataseas, ble.~ti yash Average snier of years of life estimate-d Absol.utePho-o, LIEoa lee 11I$ crcpt rs.ahrm reenicing at birti; 1500, 1970,II an 977. I- tt o_I dots. Absolute pote.rtylse ee asta ese ee bhia- hiet a inml lofant itrtality Pate (per thoaand) - Annual deaths of Infants under see sotritis..aily adequate diet plu esetia1 oc-food reqiu-evets is sot yea of age yen thoutank live births. afor.akbls. Acces to 1sf r Ca.ter (Persco 1 rt "popuItiee -ibtotl, urban, and rur - Estimated PeInticePees,soe ee (ipeosca)-uban and rural- Nube of Pepe(total uba, adrrl ih reasableccs to Rural relativ poetybet Levei seetied tf veaeprcIt safe ator suppl (ineludes tretedsr seesabrs e- untreted kot porso-a Ino,- If tie oontry hrbanlevel IsI derived f... tie rura 1e-e Iootmotdeae uha h at from protested breholes, spriags, nii djusmn for higs oct of living is urban aren.. ned saitary esibs) as per-etage- of their espretive peplatiss. In Estlasted Po ulatils lelc bsolte Pove rty Incom Leve (rroet.a - urba and anrban ares a public fctats or standpoet iscated se meeta ua ecn fpplts uban and rurl) he r abouePer. P1 aster f-n a h-.. suy be: ...siderd as beig aithisreasonble sco es of tha Icns.Is. rura area reasona.ble aees aslk iaply toss tie hosesife or mashers of the -oseold do sot hav as spend a --oie and So-ia1 laos Di-ise dbsprupcrtlnA.te part of the day is fetshiag the family's aster se.ds F--iueh iAblyeiu and Projection lep.rt-set August 1979  ANNEX I .rmfic D3V3aE1inT ~ Page 4 of 5 myW PU *rT iN 1977: 0S 150 bl '/ GUM M&UONAL PRODUCT IN 1977/7? SR cr C . t tt Pric") SU*lc. Ino~*-l6 1965M:MUN7 iM:atVA CNP,at Market Prices 101.47 100.0 3.9 3.8 3.2 Gros Dostic lnvaw# t 21.65 21.3 Gross National Saving 22.77 22.4 Currant Account Balance 4/ 1.04 1.0 source 3alance _/ - 0.31 - 0.3 OUVTm. UROR room D rumOn=CT! IN 1971 (aluc bt factor cost)o t ' r For"a U# bin. I Kill % AL % of Stioml Merec Ariculture 24.5 46.6 130.0 72.1 1" 64 Industry 11.8 22.3 20.2 11.2 5S2 19 Services 16.3 31.1 302 167 42 in Total/average 52.6 100.0 180.4 100.0 292 100 covnT ruS 3* aOral Goveromat Cstral Cvermt Rs. Sln of I o ef 19n787 M& I- 1 19 77j Current Recaipts 164.42 16.9 18.2 95.62 11.0 10.5 Current xpenditures 157.29 18.1 16.5 95.27 10.9 9.9 Current Surplus/Deficit 7.13 0.8 1.6 0.35 U.e. 0.6 Capital Epanditures ff 62.58 7.2 7.0 43.31 5.0 5.0 ,zternal Assistance (net) / 9.82 1.1 1.6 9.82 1.1 1.6 1Qy. CaROT AnD Pwzcss 1970/71 1973/4 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977o Sesoteber 1977 t_eLrsIEL (Rs billion outstanding at end of period) Noney and Quasi Honey 121.4 198.4 220.3 254.7 306.9 365.1 334.8 395.8 Sank Credit to Covernment (not) 52.6 87.3 95.3 101.1 110.2 129.7 119.3 139.5 lank Credit to Corcial Sector 64.6 107.0 126.7 153.9 185.1 210.Q 195.3 223.5 (Percentage or ln Ibers) Jar 1Z78 Jamil .9J9 Money and Quasi lonqy as % of GOP 30.1 33.5 31.5 34.5 38.8 41.9 Ubolasale Price Indax (1970/71 - 100) 100.0 139.7 174.9 173.0 176.6 185.8 184.5 184.6 Anaml percentage canega in: wholeale Price Index 7.7 20.2 25.2 - 1.1 2.1 5.2 3.2 0.1 bank Credit to Gover ent (net) 10.8 12.3 9.2 6.1 9.0 17.7 13.4 16.9 Bank Credit to Com_rcial Sector 19.4 22.6 18.4 21.5 20.3 13.5 16.6 14.4 */ lbe per capita OW estimate is at mrket pricees, calculated by the conversion technique ned in te lworld Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the avrae exchangs rate preailia daring Vc period covere. b/ Quick Xstimates. c/ Computed from trend line of OW at factor cost series, including on obeervation before first year and one observation after last year of listed period. d/ World lank estimates; not necessarily consistent with official national Account statistics. */ Transfers betwen Centre and States have been netted out. f/ All loans and a*dvance to third parties have bean netted out. j/ Extenal grants end loans, less principal repaymnts, as recorded in the Central Budget.  ANNEX I Page 5 of 5 BALANCE OF PAYMMS 1975/76 976/77 1977/76 1978/79 NEGAEISl EZPRTs (AVDAGs 1975/76 - 1977/78) (USSi$ UmSS Ml. ___ Exports of Goods 4,672 5,753 6,276 6,800 Engineering GCods 610 11 Imports of Goods -6,449 -5,928 -7,237 -8,400 Toe 417 7 Trade Balance -1,777 - 175 - 961 -1,600 Ges 377 7 NFS (not) 310 360 650 700 Clothing 331 6 Leather and Leather Resource Balance -1467 185 900 Products 278 5 Jute Manufactures 267 5 interest Payments (net) - 216 - 180 - 50 - Iron Ore 265 5 Other Factor Payments (net) - - - - Cotton Textiles 248 4 Net Transfers J/ 470 730 1,400 1,300 Sugar 244 4 Others 2,530 45 Balance on Current Account -1,213 735 1.039 400 Total 5.567 100 Official Aid Disbursements 2,341 1,953 1,628 1,805 BXIERNAL DEBT NRca 31. 1978 Amortitation - 531 - 560 - 645 - 725 USS billion Transactions with INr 242 - 337 - 330 - 158 Outstanding sd Disbursed 14.8 All Other Items - 45 - 216 384 205 Undiebtweed 4.3 Outstanding, including Increase in Reserves (-) - 794 -1,575 -2,076 -1,527 Undisborsed 19.1 Gross Reserves (and year) 2,172 3,747 5,823 7,350 h/ Net Reserves (end year) k/ 1,365 3,276 5S,668 7,350 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FoR 1977/78 15.0 percent Fuel snd Related Materials IBRD/IDA LRNDING. DECEMBER 31. 1978 Imports 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 USS million of which: Petroleum 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 IBRD IDA Exports 43 37 33 n * Outstandi.4 .. Diabursed 613 3,864 of which:Potroleum22 21 is18a Undisbursed 615 1,992 of which: Petroleuo 22 21 18 ne Outstanding, including 6 / Undisbursed 1,228 5,856 RATE OF EXCHSANE June 1966 to mid-December 1971 US$1.00 - Rs 7.5 Rs 1.00 = US$0.133333 Mid-December 1971 to eod-June 1972 US$L.OO - Rs 7.27927 Rs 1.00 - us$O.137376 After end-June 1972 Floating Rate Spot Rate end-December 1978 US$1.00 - Rs 8.188 US$1.00 - Rs 0.122 h/ Estimated. i/ Figures given cover all investeent income (net). Major payments are interest on foreige loans and charges paid to INF, snd major receipt is interest eerned on foreign assets. Jf Figures given include workers' remittances but exclude official grant assistance, which is included within official aid disbursements. kJ Excludes net use of IMF credit. 1/ Amortization snd interest payments on foreign loans as a percentage of merchandise exports. E/ Excludes exchange adjustment, but includes US$ 22 million due to third parties.  ANNEX II Page 1 of 17 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of March 31, 1980) US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 41 Loans/ 1,163.2 60 Credits fully disbursed 3,624.6 312-IN 1972 India Population -- 21.2 .33 342-IN 1972 India Education -- 12.0 5.31 356-IN 1973 India IDBI I -- 25.0 8.44 378-IN 1973 India Karnataka Agricultural Markets -- 8.0 3.19 390-IN 1973 India Bombay Water Supply I -- 55.0 6.09 456-IN 1974 India HP Apple Processing & Marketing -- 13.0 7.63 481-IN 1974 India Trombay IV Fertilizer -- 50.0 .20 1011-IN 1974 India Chambal (Rajasthan) CAD 52.0 -- 21.99 482-IN 1974 India Karnataka Dairy -- 30.0 20.55 502-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Canal CAD -- 83.0 34.24 520-IN 1974 India Sindri Fertilizer -- 91.0 .24 521-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Dairy -- 27.7 15.60 522-IN 1974 India Madhya Pradesh Dairy -- 16.4 6.28 526-IN 1975 India Drought Prone Areas -- 35.0 9.95 1079-IN 1975 IFFCO IFFCO Fertilizer 109.0 -- 10.03 1097-IN 1975 ICICI Industry DFC XI 95.6 -- 3.88 532-IN 1975 India Godavari Barrage Irrigation -- 45.0 10.27 541-IN 1975 India West Bengal Agric. Development -- 34.0 12.98 562-IN 1975 India Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) CAD -- 24.0 6.40 572-IN 1975 India Rural Electrification I -- 57.0 12.46 585-IN 1975 India Uttar Pradesh Water Supply -- 40.0 22.02 598-IN 1975 India Fertilizer Industry -- 105.0 54.05 604-IN 1976 India Power Transmission IV -- 150.0 78.89  ANNEX II Page 2 of 17 US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 609-IN 1976 India Madhya Pradesh Forestry T.A. -- 4.0 2.22 610-IN 1976 India Integrated Cotton Development -- 18.0 13.60 1251-IN 1976 India Andhra Pradesh Irrigation 145.0 -- 105.52 1260-IN 1976 India IDBI II 40.0 -- 23.72 1273-IN 1976 India National Seeds I 25.0 -- 24.00 1313-IN 1976 India Telecommunications VI 80.0 -- 23.42 1335-IN 1976 India Bombay Urban Transport 25.0 -- 10.12 680-IN 1977 India Kerala Agric. Development -- 30.0 27.82 682-IN 1977 India Orissa Agric. Development -- 20.0 94.18 685-IN 1977 India Singrauli Thermal Power -- 150.0 15.15 687-IN 1977 India Madras Urban Development -- 24.0 15.74 690-IN 1977 India WB Agric. Exten- sion & Research -- 12.0 12.00 695-IN 1977 India Gujarat Fisheries -- 4.0 .98 1394-IN 1977 India Gujarat Fisheries 14.0 -- 14.00 712-IN 1977 India Madhya Pradesh Agric. Dev. -- 10.0 9.09 720-IN 1977 India Periyar Vaigai Irrigation -- 23.0 17.16 728-IN 1977 India Assam Agricultural Development -- 8.0 7.04 1473-IN 1977 India Bombay High Offshore Development 150.0 -- 54.84 736-IN 1977 India Maharashtra Irrigation -- 70.0 50.03 737-IN 1977 India Rajasthan Agricul- tural Extension -- 13.0 10.54 740-IN 1977 India Orissa Irrigation -- 58.0 48.31 1475-IN 1977 ICICI Industry DFC XII 80.0 -- 35.81 747-IN 1978 India Second Foodgrain Storage -- 107.0 93.84 756-IN 1978 India Calcutta Urban Development II -- 87.0 50.80 761-IN 1978 India Bihar Agric. Extension & Research -- 8.0 7.48  ANNEX II Page 3 of 17 US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 1511-IN 1978 India IDBI Joint/Public Sector 25.0 -- 24.72 1549-IN 1978 TEC Third Trombay Thermal Power 105.0 -- 93.75 788-IN 1978 India Karnataka Irrigation -- 117.6 99.74 793-IN 1978 India Korba Thermal Power -- 200.0 178.77 806-IN 1978 India Jammu-Kashmir Horticulture -- 14.0 13.91 808-IN 1978 India Gujarat Irrigation -- 85.0 78.99 815-IN 1978 India Andhra Pradesh Fisheries -- 17.5 17.15 816-IN 1978 India National Seeds II -- 16.0 15.87 1592-IN 1978 India- Telecommunications VII 120.0 -- 59.80 824-IN 1978 India National Dairy -- 150.0 141.98 842-IN 1979 India Bombay Water Supply II -- 196.0 193.44 843-IN 1979 India Haryana Irrigation -- 111.0 79.84 844-IN 1979 India Railway Modernization & Maintenance -- 190.0 172.69 848-IN 1979 India Punjab Water Supply & Sewerage -- 38.0 34.07 855-IN 1979 India National Agricultural Research -- 27.0 26.84 862-IN 1979 India Composite Agricultural Extension -- 25.0 23.50 871-IN 1979 India NCDC -- 30.0 23.00 1648-IN 1979 India Ramagundam Thermal Power 50.0 -- 50.00 874-IN 1979 India Ramagundam Thermal Power 200.0 182.38 889-IN 1979 India Punjab Irrigation -- 129.0 120.30 899-IN 1979 India Maharashtra Water Supply -- 48.0 47.73 911-IN 1979 India Rural Electrification Corp. II -- 175.0 175.00 925-IN 1979 India Uttar Pradesh Social Forestry -- 23.0 21.68  ANNEX II Page 4 of 17 US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 947-IN 1979 India ARDC III -- 250.0 230.86 1743-IN* 1979 India Thal Fertilizer 250.0 -- 250.00 963-IN* 1979 India Inland Fisheries 20.0 20.00 Total 2,528.8 7,255.0 of which has been repaid 995.3 59.8 Total now outstanding 1,533.5 7,195.2 Amount Sold 133.8 of which has been repaid 116.2 17.6 Total now held by Bank and IDA 1/ 1,515.9 7,195.2 Total undisbursed (excluding*) 555.6 2,669.9 * Not yet effective I/ Prior to exchange adjustment.  ANNEX II Page 5 of 17 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (As of March 31, 1980) Fiscal Amount (US$ million) Year Company Loan Equity Total 1959 Republic Forge Company Ltd. 1.5 - 1.5 1959 Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. 0.9 - 0.9 1960 Assam Sillimanite Ltd. 1.4 - 1.4 1961 K.S.B. Pumps Ltd. 0.2 - 0.2 1963-66 Precision Bearings India Ltd. 0.6 0.4 1.0 1964 Fort Gloster Industries Ltd. 0.8 0.4 1.2 1964-75-79 Mahindra Ugine Steel Co. Ltd. 11.8 1.3 13.1 1964 Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. 1.0 0.3 1.3 1967 Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. 1.0 0.1 1.1 1967 Indian Explosives Ltd. 8.6 2.9 11.5 1969-70 Zuari Agro-Chemicals Ltd. 15.1 3.8 18.9 1976 Escorts Limited 6.6 - 6.6 1978 Housing Development Finance Corporation 4.0 1.2 5.2 1980 Deepak Fertilizer and Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. 7.5 1.1 8.6 TOTAL 61.0 11.5 72.5 Less: Sold 5.9 1.7 7.6 Repaid 17.4 - 17.4 Cancelled 6.2 0.7 6.9 Now Held 31.5 9.1 40.6 Undisbursed 10.5 1.7 12.2  ANNEX II Page 6 of 17 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/ Generally, the implementation of projects has been proceeding reason- ably well. Details on the execution of individual projects are below. The level of disbursements was US$538 million in FY79, compared to US$497 million in the previous year. Disbursements in the current fiscal year through March 31, 1980 totalled US$517 million, representing an increase of about 44% over the same period last year. The undisbursed pipeline of US$3,226 million as of March 31, 1980, reflects the lead time which would be expected given the mix of fast- and slow-disbursing projects in the India program. Ln. No. 1097 Eleventh Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$100.0 million loan of April 2, 1975; Effective Date: July 1, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Ln. No. 1475 Twelfth Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1977 Effective Date: October 4, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 These loans are supporting industrial development in India through a well-established development finance company and are designed to finance the foreign exchange cost of industrial projects. ICICI continues to be a well-managed and efficient development bank financing medium- and large-scale industries, which often employ high technology and are export-oriented. Loan 1097 is fully committed and disbursements are slightly ahead of schedule. Disbursements under Loan 1475 are also ahead of schedule. Loan No. 1260 Second Industrial Development Bank of India Project; US$40.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: August 10, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Loan No. 1511 IDBI Joint/Public Sector Project; US$25.0 million loan of March 1, 1978; Effective Date: May 31, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Loan 1260 is designed to assist the Industrial Development Bank of India in promoting small- and medium-scale industries and in strengthening the State Financial Corporations involved. Loan 1511 is designed to encourage the pooling of private and public capital in medium-scale joint ventures. The project also assists IDBI in carrying out industrial sector investment studies and in strengthening the financial institutions dealing with the state joint/ public sector. 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense and with the under- standing that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution.  ANNEX II Page 7 of 17 Cr. No. 947 Third Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) Project; US$250.0 million credit of August 20, 1979; Effective Date: January 2, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Refinancing of lending to farmers has been started under this project after the completion of the Second ARDC Project towards the end of 1979. Cr. No. 747 Second Foodgrain Storage Project; US$107.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: May 17, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 As of September 1979, satisfactory progress was being made in the construction of bag storage warehouses, despite problems of land acqui- sition at some sites. However, construction of flat bulk warehouses and port silos is not expected to be completed until 1985, as a result of delays in the employment of consultants and the longer time required for the prepa- ration of technical specifications and tenders and the construction itself. Cr. No. 456 Himachal Pradesh Apple Processing and Marketing Project; US$13.0 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: September 26, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project encountered prolonged initial delays due to managerial and technical problems. These problems have been largely resolved, but con- struction progress remains slow due to material shortages and severe winter conditions. Initial packing house operations were undertaken in the last two seasons with favorable response from farmers. The project is scheduled for completion by December 1980. Cr. No. 806 Jammu-Kashmir Horticulture Project; US$US$14.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: January 16, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 The principal executing agency, J&K Horticulture Produce Marketing and Processing Corporation, is under strong management and rapid progress has been made in start-up operations with only minor slippage. The project's research activities, however, are behind the original schedule due to poor organization. Ln. No. 1313 Telecommunications VI Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1976; Effective Date: September 14, 1976 Closing Date: March 31, 1982 Ln. No. 1592 Telecommunications VII Project; US$US$120.0 million loan of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: October 30, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1982 Both projects are progressing satisfactorily, although as of November 1979, when they were last reviewed, imports of electronic switching equipment and local production of electro-mechanical switching equipment  ANNEX II Page 8 of 17 were behind schedule, resulting in a reduced growth rate for the installa- tion of direct exchange lines. Institutional improvements envisaged under the projects have been achieved, and the financial situation of the Posts and Telegraphs Department remains sound. Ln. No. 1079 IFFCO Fertilizer Project; US$US$109.0 million loan of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: April 28, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Cr. No. 598 Fertilizer Industry Project; US$105.0 million credit of December 31, 1975; Effective Date: March 1, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Ln. No. 1743 Thal Fertilizer Project; US$250.0 million loan of August 20, 1979; Effective Date: July 31, 1980 (expected); Closing Date: November 30, 1984 The IFFCO project was delayed by about a year as a result of a change in feedstock from fuel oil to naphta and delays in completion of engineering contracts. However, project construction is now proceeding satisfactorily and commissioning is expected within the next six months. Credit 598 is designed to increase the utilization of existing fertilizer production capacity. The project has encountered delays in sub-project preparation and investment approvals by the Government. Further, some of the sub-projects identified earlier may not materialize because of reconsideration by the Central and St.te governments. IDA has agreed to a list of sub-projects to replace the ones that are likely to be dropped. Because of the above, the project is likely to be delayed by about 18 months. Cr. No. 378 Karnataka Wholesale Agricultural Markets Project; US$8.0 mil- lion credit of May 9, 1973; Effective Date: September 7, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Delays in project implementation were encountered as a result of frequent changes in management in the early stages, and these have necessi- tated an extension of the closing date by 18 months to June 30, 1981, to allow for completion of works and withdrawal of the credit. Progress is improving, however. As of May, 1979, construction on 36 of the 39 markets envisaged under the project was underway or completed, and trade had shifted to about half of these. An additional five markets may be included in the project at the request of the State government. Cr. No. 312 Population Project; US$21.2 million credit of June 14, 1972; Effective Date: May 9, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 This credit is designed to finance an experimental and research oriented population project in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. The project's infrastructure, which would provide the optimum facilities (buildings, equip- ment, staff and transport) according to GOI standards in selected districts in each state, is virtually complete. The two Population Centers, established to design and monitor research aimed at improving the family planning program,  ANNEX II Page 9 of 17 are now functioning. The Population Centers are expected to complete their evaluation of family planning strategies and the introduction of management information and evaluation systems by the present closing date. Cr. No. 342 Agricultural Universities Project; US$12.0 million credit of November 10, 1972; Effective Date: June 8, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project involves the development of the agricultural univer- sities in Assam and Bihar. The primary aim of the AUs project is to improve the quality and practical training of undergraduates and so the spectrum of their employment opportunities; and to strengthen university structure to enable it to give an impetus to agricultural and rural development. Consider- able progress has been made in achieving the latter objective; but achieving educational objectives is more slowly attainable, constrained by traditional attitudes and structures where consistent effective leadership falters. Changes to a more functional orientation are now planned. The Project Director and others responsible are aware of the constraints and are support- ing efforts to remove them. Cr. No. 390 Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$55.0 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: March 13, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 842 Second Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$196.0 million credit of November 13, 1978; Effec:tive Date: June 12, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Cr. No. 848 Punjab Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$38.0 million credit of October 27, 1978; Effective Date: January 25, 1979, Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 899 Maharashtra Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$48.0 mil- lion credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: November 9, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Having overcome earlier difficulties, including cost overruns caused by inflation (requiring project redefinition in February 1975), redesign of major project components and the addition of a supplementary study on sewage disposal, Credit 390 is now progressing satisfactorily. The water treatment works were successfully completed on schedule at the end of 1979. Completion of construction of the project sewerage works is scheduled for mid-1980. Financial performance of the project entity is satisfactory. Implementation of Credit 842, a second stage of the ongoing Credit 390, is proceeding to schedule. Preliminary work in connection with implementation of Credit 848 is progressing satisfactorily.  ANNEX II Page 10 of 17 Cr. No. 585 Uttar Pradesh Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$40.0 million credit of September 25, 1975; Effective Date: February 6, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The Project has had a slow start due to delays in the preparation of technical reports for regional and local water authorities and in the engagement of consultants. While improvements have been made in the physical execution, other aspects of project implementation continue to lag so that disbursements under the Credit have fallen short of estimates at the time of appraisal. In order to improve the situation, arrangements have been made to closely supervise and coordinate implementation. Cr. No. 756 Second Calcutta Urban Development Project; US$87.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: April 7, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 The project is proceeding quite well in most sectors, in spite of the severe floods of September 1978 and serious Statewide electric power shortages. Procurement is generally on schedule for equipment and consultants' services, though somewhat behind for larger civil works contracts. Staff shortages in some of the implementing agencies continue, although more exten- sive use of consultants has to a great degree alleviated this problem. Cr. No. 687 Madras Urban Development Project; US$24.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 30, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1981 Physical progress is generally satisfactory and costs are within appraisal estimates on most components. However, land acquisition problems and consequent delays in construction on one of the three sites and service areas will result in about 15 months delay in the completion of the final sections of these areas. Inadequate attention and staff has been given to the financial analysis and marketing strategies required to ensure that anti- cipated cost recovery in the sites and services and slum upgrading components and thus replicability is actually achieved. However, there is still ample time to deal effectively with these problems; technical assistance is being sought to strengthen financial management and analysis. Cr. No. 482 Karnataka Dairy Development Project; US$30.0 million credit of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 23, 1974; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 Cr. No. 521 Rajasthan Dairy Development Project; US$27.7 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: August 8, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 522 Madhya Pradesh Dairy Development Project; US$16.4 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: July 23, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1982  ANNEX II Page 11 of 17 Cr. No. 824 National Dairy Project; US$150.0 million credit of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: December 20, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 These four credits, totalling US$224.1 million, support dairy devel- opment projects organized along the lines of the successful AMUL dairy coopera- tive scheme in Gujarat State. More than 2,100 dairy cooperative societies (DCS) have been established under the three state projects (Karnataka 923, Rajasthan-926, Madhya Pradesh-272). Farmer response had been excellent and project authorities are under considerable producer pressure to speed up the establishment of DCS. Profitability in almost all of the DCS is good and con- struction of dairy and feed plants is now proceeding at a satisfactory pace. Limited milk processing capacity has been the major constraint to DCS formation in all three projects. Under the National Dairy Project, three subprojects with an estimated total cost of approximately Rs 1,000 million have been appraised by the Indian Dairy Corporation and a further eight subprojects are in various stages of preparation and appraisal. Advance procurement of dairy equipment is well underway though disbursements have been slow, mainly as a result in the start of project operations. Cr. No. 532 Godavari Barrage Project; US$45.0 million credit of March 7, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Both the civil works and equipment tenders have been awarded after international competitive bidding. Work is proceeding satisfactorily. Ln. No. 1011 Chambal (Rajasthan) Command Area Development Project; US$52.0 million loan of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 502 Rajasthan Canal Command Area Development Project; US$83.0 million credit of July 31, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 562 Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) Command Area Development Project; US$24.0 million credit of June 20, 1975; Effective Date: September 18, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Ln. No. 1251 Andhra Pradesh Irrigation and Command Area Development (TW) Composite Project; US$145.0 million loan (Third Window) of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: September 7, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 720 Periyar Vaigai Irrigation Project; US$23.0 million credit of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 30, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 736 Maharashtra Irrigation Project; US$70.0 million credit of October 11, 1977; Effective Date: January 13, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983  ANNEX II Page 12 of 17 Cr. No. 740 Orissa Irrigation Project; US$58.0 million of October 11, 1977; Effective Date: January 16, 1978; Closing Date: October 31, 1983 Cr. No. 788 Karnataka Irrigation Project; US$126.0 million credit of May 12, 1978; Effective Date: August 10, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Cr. No. 808 Gujarat Irrigation Project; US$85.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: October 31, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Cr. No. 843 Haryana Irrigation Project; US$111.0 million credit of August 16, 1978; Effective Date: December 14, 1978; Closing Date: August 31, 1983 Cr. No. 889 Punjab Irrigation Project; US$120.0 million credit of March 30, 1979; Effective Date: June 20, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 These projects, based on existing large irrigation systems, are designed to improve the efficiency of water utilization and, where possible, to use water savings for bringing additional areas under irrigation. Canal lining and )ther irrigation infrastructure, drainage, and land shaping are prominent components of these projects. In addition, provisions have been made to increase agr_cultural production and marketing by reforming and upgrading agricultural extension services and by providing processing and storage facilities and village access roads. Progress of these projects is generally satisfactory with the exception of the Nagarjunasagar compo- nent of Loan 1251 where water losses have proven higher than anticipated. Specific efforts are underway to redesign this project so that it can achieve its original objectives. Cr. No. 541 West Bengal Agricultural Development Project; US$34.0 million credit of April 28, 1975; Effective Date: August 28, 1975; Closing Date: March 31, 1981 The progress of shallow tubewells is well ahead of the appraisal schedule, but progress in all other areas is slow. The project will not fully disburse by the closing date, and GOI's request for an extension is expected. Cr. No. 682 Orissa Agricultural Development Project; US$20.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 28, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1983 Cr. No. 690 West Bengal Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$12.0 million credit of June 1, 1977; Effective Date: August 30, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1982  ANNEX II Page 13 of 17 Cr. No. 712 Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$10.0 million credit of June 1, 1977; Effective Date: September 2, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1983 Cr. No. 728 Assam Agricultural Development Project; US$8.0 million credit of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 30, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 737 Rajasthan Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$13.0 million credit of November 14, 1977; Effective Date: February 6, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Cr. No. 761 Bihar Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$8.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: May 2, 1978; Closing Date: October 31, 1983 Cr. No. 862 Composite Agricultural Extension Project, US$25.0 million credit of February 16, 1979; Effective Date (expected): December 14, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 These seven credits finance the reorganization and strengthening of agricultural extension services and the development of adaptive research capabilities in nine States in India. In areas where the reformed extension system is in full operation, field results have been very good, both in terms of adoption of new agricultural techniques and of increased crop yields. In Rajasthan, Assam, and Orissa, in particular, significant gains have been made under the projects. In West Bengal, where a change in government brought a review of the organizational principles underlying the new extension system and an accompanying hiatus in project implementation, a recent Cabinet deci- sion has reaffirmed the State Government's commitment to the project and revised implementation plans are under preparation. In Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, staff shortages, particularly in supervisory and managerial posts, have hampered project implementation, although progress in areas where regular extension visits are being made attests to the efficacy of the system itself. Finally, in Gujarat, Haryana and Karnataka, all covered under the Composite Agricultural Extension Project (which is not yet effec- tive), project implementation is still in the very early stages, although important early administrative and financial steps have been taken which should pave the way for effective operation of the reorganized extension system. Cr. No. 855 National Agriculture Research Project; US$27.0 million credit of December 7, 1978; Effective Date: January 22, 1979; Closing Date: September 30, 1983 While the initial sanctioning of research subprojects under this project was somewhat slower than expected, due to staff shortages in the Project Unit, the pace has picked up considerably in recent months. Commit- ment of funds to research subprojects in FY80 is expected to meet or even exceed appraisal estimates, although corresponding disbursements may lag somewhat behind the original estimates. Additions to the staff of the Project Unit are being recommended to expedite further progress under the project.  ANNEX II Page 14 of 17 Cr. No. 526 Drought Prone Areas Project; US$35.0 million credit of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Overall progress of this project continues to be satisfactory. Implementation of most components is proceeding well. Dairying and dryland farming components show particular promise for the drought-prone areas. Cr. No. 680 Kerala Agricultural Development Project; US$30.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 29, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Project implementation started slowly due to initial staffing and funding delays. The project has now gained momentum and the planting opera- tions, which were one season behind original schedule, have been rephased to make up for lost time. Cr. No. 871 National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) Project; US$30.0 million credit of February 2, 1979; Effective Date: May 3, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 As of October, 1979, when the project was last reviewed, construc- tion of godowns had begun in the three participating States of Haryana, Orissa, and Uttar Pradesh. Consultants were being recruited to assist NCDC and State Cooperative Banks in strengthening their institutions. Initial project preparations have been completed on schedule; disbursements are therefore expected to follow the appraisal targets. Cr. No. 844 Railway Modernization and Maintenance Project; US$190.0 million credit of November 13, 1978; Effective Date: January 10, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 Credit 844 was designed to help the Indian Railways reduce manu- facturing and maintenance costs of locomotives and rolling stock and to improve their performance and availability. The project is still at an early stage of implementation but is progressing satisfactorily. Cr. No. 609 Madhya Pradesh Forestry Technical Assistance Project; US$4.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: May 17, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 A feasibility study financed under this Credit and completed in November 1979 has recommended the establishment of two mills, one for sawn- wood and one for pulp, as the basis of the development of a forest-based industry in Bastar district. Cr. No. 925 Uttar Pradesh Social Forestry Project; US$23.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: January 3, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 This project was designed to expand the social forestry program in Uttar Pradesh, to provide a source of energy to the villages, and supply  ANNEX II Page 15 of 17 raw materials to cottage industries. The project provides for large-scale tree plantation on 48,600 ha of public and village lands, primarily along roads, rails and canals, and on village common lands and degraded forest reserves. Cr. No. 610 Integrated Cotton Development Project; US$18.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: November 30, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project's progress remained very disappointing in all areas until the 1978 season, resulting in negligible disbursements. Due to renewed interests from GOI and the States, the project has now started to progress well. Short-term credits are increasing significantly, new processing units are being established in Haryana and Maharashtra, and plant protection activities have started progressing well. Ln. No. 1273 National Seed Project; US$25.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: October 8, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 816 Second National Seed Project; US$16.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: December 20, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 These projects were designed to increase the availability of high quality agricultural seed, and cover nine States (four by Ln. 1273-IN and five by CR. 816-IN). The first project started slowly due to organizational difficulties and is almost two years behind schedule. Progress in the second project States is more satisfactory. The role of various organizations (National and State) in the production and processing of seed is being reviewed. Ln. No. 1335 Bombay Urban Transport Project; US$25.0 million loan of December 20, 1976; Effective Date: March 10, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The bus procurement program supported by the project has proceeded on schedule, with all 700 bus chassis and bodies having been ordered and 589 already in service. Total fleet strength has increased from 1,530 buses at the inception of the project to 1,900 buses in September 1979, in accordance with appraisal estimates. Depot capacity expansion is lagging somewhat behind fleet expansion, but should match fleet size by early 1980. However, delays in construction of new workshop facilities have been more substantial and will not be fully recoverable. Traffic management civil works are also somewhat behind schedule, although efforts are being made to speed up the works program. Ln. No. 1394 Gujarat Fisheries Project; US$14.0 million loan and US$4.0 (TW) and million credit of April 22, 1977; Effective Date: Cr. No. 695 July 19, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1983  ANNEX II Page 16 of 17 Cr. No. 815 Andhra Pradesh Fisheries Project; US$17.5 million credit ofJune 19, 1978; Effective Date: October 31, 1978; Closing Date: September 30, 1984 In Gujarat, harbor construction at Mangrol and Veraval are under way, and although some delays have been encountered, the project is progress- ing satisfactorily and no major problems are evident. In Andhra Pradesh, preliminary work on implementation is progressing satisfactorily, and harbor works at Visakhapatnam and Kakinada are scheduled to commence shortly. Cr. No. 685 Singrauli Thermal Power Project; US$150.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 28, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1983 Cr. No. 793 Korba Thermal Power Project; US$200.0 million credit of May 12, 1978; Effective Date: August 14, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Ln. No. 1549 Third Trombay Thermal Power Project; US$105.0 million loan of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: February 8, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Ln. No. 1648 Ramagundam Thermal Power Project; US$50.0 million loan and and Cr. US$200 million credit of February 2, 1979; Effective Date: No. 874 May !2, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 Cr. No. 604 Power Transmission IV Project; US$150 million credit of January 22, 1976; Effective Date: October 22, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Credit 685 assists in financing the first stage of the 2,000 MW Singrauli development which is the first of four power stations in the Government's program for the development of large central thermal power stations feeding power into an interconnected grid. The second such station, at Korba, is being financed under Credit 793. The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) has been carrying out construction and operation of these power stations. Organization and staffing of NTPC is proceeding satisfactorily. Loan 1549 is supporting the construction of a 500 MW extension of the Tata Electric Companies' station, in order to help meet the forecast load growth in the Bombay area. Loan 1648 and Credit 874 sup- port the construction of the first three 200 MW generating units in Andhra Pradesh together with related facilities and associated transmission. All these large-scale thermal power projects are progressing satisfactorily. Under Credit 604, contracts aggregating about US$114 million have been ap- proved to date. Although this project suffered delays in preparation of technical specifications and evaluation of bids for highly sophisticated equipment, the project is now progressing satisfactorily. Cr. No. 572 Rural Electrification Project; US$57.0 million credit of July 23, 1975; Effective Date: October 23, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980  ANNEX II Page 17 of 17 Cr. No. 911 Rural Electrification Corporation II Project; US$175.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: October 17, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Credit 572 consists of a tranche of rural electrification schemes financed by the Rural Electrification Corporation. There are now thirteen State Electricity Boards (SEBs) eligible for onlending, compared with six at the time of appraisal. The project got off to a slow start, due principally to the need to adapt the specifications and tendering procedures to interna- tional competitive bidding, but the position has improved and the full amount of the Credit has been committed. Credit 911 provides continued support to the Rural Electrification Corporation's lending program, and is helping to finance about 1,700 rural electrification schemes in fourteen SEBs, including the newly participating Uttar Pradesh SEB. The project is at an early stage of implementation, and procurement is progressing satisfactorily. Ln. No. 1473 Bombay High Offshore Development Project; US$150.0 million loan of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: October 20, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project is progressing satisfactorily. Gas and oil pipelines from Bombay High to shore were commissioned in June 1978. Most contracts for Phase III of Bombay High development have been laid, construction should be completed by mid-1980 and the loan should be fully disbursed by its original closing date.  ANNEX III Page 1 INDIA CALCUTTA URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I Timetable of Key Events (a) Time taken by the country to prepare the project 2 years. (b) The agencies which prepared the project Calcutta State Transport Corporation (CSTC), Calcutta Tramways Company Ltd. (CTC), and Calcutta Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA). (c) Date of first presentation to the Bank and date of first mission to consider the project July 1977/November 1977. (d) Date of departure of appraisal mission October 1979. (e) Date of completion of negotiations May 2, 1980. (f) Planned date of effectiveness September 30, 1980. Section II Special IDA Implementation Actions None Section III Special Conditions (a) Management Support Units to be established in CTC and CSTC and organizational changes effected by November 1, 1980 (para 42(a)).  ANNEX III Page 2 (b) Training staff to be recruited for CSTC and CTC by November 1, 1980 and training programs commenced by January 1, 1981 (para 42(a)). (c) Specified performance targets to be met by CTC and CSTC (para 42(b)). (d) Debt/equity ratio of CTC and CSTC not to exceed 67:33 during project period; CSTC and CTC operating ratios to be reduced by annual average of 10% over project period; 25% fare increase for CTC and CSTC to be introduced by April 1, 1981; GOWB annual subsidies to CTC and CSTC to be stabilized at agreed levels; any surplus generated by CTC and CSTC during project period to be channelled into depreciation fund and not used for fleet expansion (para 42(c)). (e) Temporary route permits for private operators to be converted to permanent permits as of April 1, 1981; private bus fares to be brought into parity with CSTC fares by April 1, 1981; PVD to be strengthened to enable it to adequately supervise private operators (para 42(d)). (f) Commi.tee to review route rationalization proposals be estab_ished by November 1, 1980 (para 42(d)). (g) CSTC to review bus procurement program, based on monitoring of economic life of buses, by March 31, 1982 (para 43(a)). (h) CMDA's Traffic Engineering Unit to be strengthened (para 43(c)). (i) Traffic engineering schemes to be agreed with IDA (paras 43(c)). (j) Position of Chief Project Officer to be filled at all times by officer of adequate experience; Chief Project Officer to be provided with adequate staff, including one cost accountant (para 45). (k) GOWB to ensure adequate maintenance of roads on which traffic engineering and management improvements are undertaken (para 43(c)). (1) CSTC to develop improved cost accounting and repair recording system for its bus body building operation (para 48)).  IND A CALCUTTA URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT CALCUTTA METROPOLITAN DISTRICT Project Area Boundary National highq6ays Major Roads Minor Roads . - Raflroads I - X : Bridges/ Canals, Channels - Ccrporation and Municipality Boundaries ----- Kolyani-Bansber,a Boundaries - ----Ca cutta Metropoi ton Bcundaries - Dist,icts International Boundaries 7 l /-8.tW= f- _ -\ ]n~~~~~~7 (r - I' sJV@ O 2 4 8 ='/\................g1sf-IS ,V LES'. t ' J Z~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Z r-- IC ISC\ PAris s5 \ -: -\. 0N 55>, _ r q </ & r- -? -- ' >aeA n 1-0 S- > ,I D 1 t 4 e R YS ,) < A\<st~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ f 7 , / lfflaw >! 6eS7E Z X @; \ADj 'Al= o A- \f Jrbsr / Stabs -- { tM S R6SAbrMPn9vi O e