Tanzania - Seventh Education Project

Document of The World Bank FILE COpy FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No- P-2861-TA REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPOUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOR A SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT July 8, 1980 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorkiation.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Tanzanian Shilling (TSh.) TSh. 1.00 - US$0.12 US$1.00 = TSh. 8.30 US$1.00 = D.Kr. 5.75 D.Kr. 1.00 = US$0.17 GLOSSARY BER - Basic Economic Report 5CM - Chama Cha Mapinduzi CNE - Colleges of National Education DANIDA - Danish International Development Agency D.Kr. - Danish Kroner DDD - District Development Director DEO - District Education Officer NMD - Ministry of Manpower Development MOE - Ministry of National Education NEC - National Examinations Council PCU - Project Coordinating Unit PIU - Project Implementation Unit PMO - Prime Minister's Office RCU - Rural Construction Unit RDD - Regional Development Director REO - Regional Education Officer SLP - School Location Planning TANU - Tanganyika African National Union TES - Tanzania Elimu Supplies UPE - Universal Primary Education GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TANZANIA SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: United Republic of Tanzania Amount: US$25.0 million equivalent Terms: Standard Cofinancing: The Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) is providing a grant of US$20 million equivalent. Prolect Description: Primary education: construction of about 360 primary classrooms in four least developed districts, and provision of teaching materials to schools in sixteen rural districts. Secondary education: construction of a demonstration school at the University of Dar es Salaam and of two lower secondary schools; construction of science and mathematics streams in new, and rehabilitation of such streams in existing schools; provision of 100 stfff- years of graduate teachers of science and mathematics. Teacher training: construction of a new, and rehabili- tation of an existing, teacher training college in Zanzibar. Educational Quality Support Services: provision of storage facilities to Tanzania Elimu Supplies, a para- statal, and fellowships to the National Examination Council. Given the isolated locations and the size of the! primary school construction component some difficulties can be anticipated in its implementation. However, technical assistance is provided for the four districts concerned to address this problem. The main risk for the secondary school component lies in the uncertain supply of mathematics and science teachers. The project would minimize this problem temporarily by financing teachers in the short-term and ensuring that the government adopts policies to address the problem over the longer-term. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their omcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Costs: Local Foreign Total -----US$ (million)----- Civil Works, Furniture, Equipment, Textbooks and Vehicles a. Primary Education 3.1 5.1 8.2 b. Secondary Education 7.1 8.8 15.9 c. Teacher Training 1.9 2.9 4.8 d. Supporting Services 2.1 2.7 4.8 Sub-total 14.2 19.5 33.7 Technical Assistance 0.3 2.6 2.9 Research and Development, Training 0.2 0.4 0.6 Professional Services 0.5 0.8 1.3 (Architectural/Engineering) Pre-investment Studies, Monitoring and Evaluation 0.1 0.1 0.2 Project Administration 0.6 0.1 0.7 Total Baseline Costs 15.9 23.5 39.4 Contingencies Physical 1.4 1.7 3.1 Price Increase 5.9 7.1 13.0 Sub-total 7.3 8.8 16.1 Total Project Cost 23.2 32.3 55.5 (of which taxes and duties) 0.5 - 0.5 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total --------US$ million------ IDA Credit 7.0 18.0 25.0 DANIDA Grant 5.7 14.3 20.0 Government of Tanzania 10.0 - 10.0 Total Project Costs 22.7 32.3 55.0 (Net of taxes and duties)  - iii - Estimated Disbursements: IDA Fiscal Year FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 ------------------US$ million----- Annual 0.4 8.1 17.0 13.2 6.0 0.3 Cumulative 0.4 8.5 25.5 38.7 44.7 45.0 Appraisal Report: No. 2782-TA, dated June 2, 1980.   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOR A SEVENTH EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the United Republic of Tanzania of US$25.0 million equivalent on standard terms to help finance improving the quality of primary education, increasing the capacity of the upper-secondary education system in science- based fields, augmenting teacher training facilities, and enhancing the capacity of key governmental and parastatal agencies to manage resource flows in the education sector. Cofinancing is being provided by the Danish Inter- national Development Association (DANIDA) with an amount of D.Kr. 115 million (US$20 million equivalent). PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A Basic Economic Mission visited Tanzania in August 1976. The Basic Economic Report was distributed in December 1977 (Report No. 1616-TA). A new Country Economic Memorandum will be issued later this fiscal year. A summary of social and economic data is in Annex I. Profile of the Economy 3. Tanzania is one of the 30 least developed countries in the world with a per capita income in 1978 of US$230. The economy is still heavily dependent on agriculture: 90% of the labor force is engaged in agriculture and approximately 50% of GDP and about 70% of total exports are derived from agricultural production. The industrial sector is still small, producing about 10% of GDP, approximately the same percentage as 11 years ago. The service sector produces about 40% of GDP. Overall population density is low, though a few areas are considered overpopulated. Population growth is estimated at 3.0% per annum with both fertility and mortality at relatively high levels. 4. Since the Arusha Declaration in 1967 Tanzania has pursued a socialist development strategy. Banking, insurance, and most large-scale enterprises in manufacturing, plantation agriculture, transportation, and wholesale trade are under state control. There is extensive state intervention in economic activity, including import licensing, foreign exchange controls, price control, the reservation of some activities to the state or cooperative sector, and detailed Government investment planning. The second major feature of Tanzania's development strategy is its strong emphasis on rural development 1/ This section is essentially the same as that of the President's Report on the Grain Storage and Milling Project, dated April 15, 1980.  -2- and social programs to benefit the poor and reduce inequalities in income distribution. This is reflected in ambitious programs for the provision of rural water supplies and health services and in the decision to achieve universal entry into primary education beginning in 1977. Long Term Economic Trends 5. In the decade 1968-78 real GDP at factor cost grew at an annual average rate of 4.8%, or about 1.8% per annum per capita. While economic growth was severely disrupted by the economic crisis following the failure of rains and large increases in import prices in 1973 and 1974, the economy has recovered well with annual growth at 5 to 6% for 1976 through 1978. During this decade the service sector grew the fastest - 6.3% p.a., followed by the industrial sector - 4.0% p.a. and then agriculture - 2.7% p.a. 6. The Government has a good record of domestic resource mobilization. Between 1967-68 and 1977-78 the share of recurrent revenues rose from 15.1% to 19.3% of GDP. However, most of this increase occurred before 1975-1976. Since then revenue has been increasing at a rate below the GDP growth rate (in 1974/75 revenue was 22% of GDP). This increase was achieved through a combination of highly progressive dLrect taxes and proportional or moderately progressive indirect taxes. Except during the economic crisis in 1974-75, the rate of national savings has also been high: gross national savings fluctuated at around 16-17% of GNP from the mid-1960s through 1973, fell to half that level during the crisis years and recovered to the pre-crisis level in 1976 and 1977. These are high levels of savings for a country at Tanzania's income level. 7. Some progress has also been made in achieving the Government's objective of a more equitable income distribution. Between 1969 and 1975 the average urban rural gap remained approximately constant, halting the trend towards an increasing gap in the early 1960s. It is likely that the gap has been slightly reduced since 1976 due to continued recovery of agricultural production and higher producer prices. However, regional income differentials in rural areas have tended to widen slightly. Within the formal urban sector there has been a dramatic narrowing of the post-tax income differential between the highest-paid government officials and minimum wage earners from 50 to 1 in 1961 to 8 to 1 in 1975. However, an informal sector has emerged comprising large numbers of unemployed and underemployed workers with earnings significantly below the official urban minimum wage. The policies of wage restraint and higher producer prices pursued since 1975 should have a bene- ficial impact on almost all dimensions of income distribution, and the basic needs oriented programs in rural water and health and in universal primary education (para. 4 above) are resulting in a significant redirection in public expenditures toward the rural poor. 8. Despite this impressive overall record of development, some pro- blems have begun to manifest themselves in recent years. Exports have failed to keep pace with the growth of the rest of the economy. The overall export index is down almost one-third since 1966. This poor performance in exports  - 3 - is due to the poor growth rate of agricultural cash crops. While agricul- tural output has increased impressively in recent years (by an average of about 7% in the years 1976-78), most of this growth has been in the hard-to- measure subsistence sector, while the monetary sector has lagged well behind. Over the last decade subsistence growth has averaged more than double monetary sector growth. This has led to a severe retardation of growth of exports of agricultural products which in turn has led to increasing dependency on foreign loans and grants to pay for imports. 9. A second problem that is becoming more serious is the deceleration of the growth of government revenues. While still at a high ratio to GDP compared to most other developing countries, government revenues have been growing more slowly than GDP in recent years. At the same time recurrent expenditures have been higher than budgeted. As a result, public sector savings have been well below expectations and the Government has had to rely more upon borrowing (both foreign and local) and external aid for financing development than was planned. Recent Economic Developments 10. During 1975-77 the Government followed a program agreed to at the time of the first Program Loan (No. 1063-TA) in late 1974. This program included redirecting investment to more productive sectors, higher agricul- tural producer prices, constraints on wages and salaries, price and tax increases to restrain consumption and tight control of imports. These poli- cies, aided by the boom in coffee prices, succeeded in keeping government spending under control with low levels of borrowing from the banking system and led to a balance of payments surplus of almost US$150 million in 1977. Food production increased and government stocks of most foodgrains reached record levels. In 1978 the Government was able to ease import restrictions and begin to import the spares and raw materials needed by industry, which had been running below capacity. 11. Unfortunately the price of coffee, Tanzania's major export, began to fall at the same time that imports were liberalized. Also, in October, 1978 war broke out with Uganda and the resulting imports of military equipment and domestic mobilization put an increasing strain on the balance of payments and the domestic budget. Consequently the current account showed a deficit of more than US$450 million in 1978 and the overall balance of payments was almost US$300 million in deficit. As a result, reserves were drawn down and the country was forced to delay payment of about US$60 million in import bills. 12. The situation deteriorated further in 1979 and the Government's economic policies are facing a major challenge. The overall balance of payments is expected to be almost US$200 million in deficit and as a result arrears were estimated at about US$200 million by the end of the year. At the same time the domestic budget deficit has ballooned. The recurrent budget is expected to show a deficit of almost Tsh. 1 billion for 1978/79 and govern- ment borrowing from the banking system is expected to be more than Tsh. 3 billion, a major component in an almost 35% increase in the money supply.  In an attempt to address the balance of payments imbalance, import licenses were reduced by almost 40% from the 1978 level in real terms (following a 10% devaluation in January of 1979). The Government was also able to arrange for almost US$75 million in funds from the IMF from its first credit tranche, the Trust Fund and the Export Compensatory Fund. However, negotiations for further assistance from the IMF have so far been-unsuccessful. The 1979/80 budget calls for a reduction in the level of recurrent expenditure and borrow- ing from the banking system of Tsh 1.67 billion, but through the first quarter of this fiscal year borrowing was already Tsh 1.4 billion. A major cause of this problem is the lack of budgetary discipline: spending agencies have been able to exceed their budgetary allocations with the Treasury continuing to honor their checks. The Government urgently needs to develop a comprehensive program to deal with the current crisis, as it did in 1974. The Bank Group has offered to help the Government in developing such a program. 13. Tanzania continues to attract large amounts of foreign assistance. Because of the very concessional terms on which this aid has been given to Tanzania and the Government's reluctance in the past to use higher cost commercial loans and supplier's credits, the overall debt service ratio has historically been low (less than 10%). However, the recent balance of pay- ments crisis has forced the Government to make greater use of loan financing and as a result the debt service ratio was estimated at 12% in 1979 and was projected at 15% in 1980. We expect it will remain in the range of 15-20% throughout the 1980's. In 1978 the Bank held 12% of Tanzania's external debt (for the Bank Group, it was 28%) and received 37% of Tanzania's debt service (40% for the Bank Group). We are projecting this debt service share to fall to about 21% in 1980 and to remain around 25% for the coming decade. 14. Tanzania's development will require resources in excess of domestic savings and external capital made available solely to finance the foreign exchange costs of projects. Given the Government's efforts to mobilize domestic resources and in view of our support for its increased emphasis on local cost intensive rural investments, the Bank Group will continue to finance a high proportion of total costs including, in appropriate cases, a portion of local costs. East African Community (EAC) 15. The recent developments in the East African Community were outlined in a report to the Executive Directors dated December 19, 1977 (R77-312). Dr. Victor Umbricht, the independent mediator appointed by the Partner States, has visited East Africa on numerous occasions and has now prepared reports on the results of his fact-finding work on the EAC Corporations and the General Services, and the methodology adopted in appraising the assets and liabilities. In late March 1980, the mediator presented to the three govern- ments his proposals for the allocation of these assets and liabilities, for their consideration. The next step would be the start of negotiations among the three governments based on the mediator's proposals. The mediator's report and recommendations on the future structure of the East African Develop- ment Bank (EADB) have been accepted by the Partner States. The revised EADB  - 5 - Charter along with the Treaty amending and re-enacting the new Charter have been submitted to the three Governments for signature; this is expected shortly. 16. The de facto breakup of the Community has had some impact on Tanzania's budget as new national entities had to take over the services formerly provided by the EAC Corporations. A major development related to the EAC difficulties was the closure of the border with Kenya. Kenya was a major trading partner of Tanzania and considerable adjustments have had to be made in locating new suppliers for some items and developing alternative outlets for some manufactured goods and agricultural products. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN TANZANIA 1/ 17. Tanzania joined the Bank, IDA and IFC in 1962. Beginning with an IDA credit for education in 1962, 42 IDA credits and 19 Bank loans, of which two on Third Window terms, amounting to US$812.5 million have so far been approved for Tanzania. In addition, Tanzania has been a beneficiary of 10 loans totalling US$244.8 million which have been extended for the development of the common services and development bank operated regionally by Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda through their association in the East African Community. IFC investments in Tanzania, totalling US$4.7 million, were made to the Kilombero Sugar Company in 1960 and 1964. This Company encountered financial difficulties and in 1969 IFC and other investors sold their interest in the Company to the Government. A new IFC investment of US$1.7 million in soap manufacturing in Mbeya was approved by the Executive Directors on June 8, 1978 and an investment of US$1.5 million in metal product manufacturing was approved on May 10, 1979. Annex II contains summary statements of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments to Tanzania and the East African Community organizations as of March 31, 1980 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. To support Tanzania's overall development strategy Bank Group lending operations are increasingly focusing on the rural sector and directly productive projects. While up to the end of FY1972 Bank Group operations were directed mainly to infrastructure, the overwhelming majority of the operations approved since FY73 have been for directly productive projects. Furthermore, a number of recent Bank Group supported infrastructure projects have been closely linked with specific productive activities. For example, the Urban Water Supply Project (Loan No. 1354-TA) approved in December 1976, will support the Industrial Complex in Morogoro (Loans No. 1385-T-TA and 1386-TA) and the Morogoro Textile Project (Loan No. 1607-TA and Credit No. 833-TA). Directly productive projects recently approved include the Second Cashewnut 1/ This section is essentially the same as that of the President's Report on the Grain Storage and Milling Project dated April 15, 1980.  - 6 - Development Project (Credit No. 801-TA), the Tobacco Handling Project (Credit No. 802-TA), the Mufindi Pulp and Paper Project (Loan No. 1650-TA and Credit No. 875-TA) and the Tanganyika Development Finance Company Limited Project (Loan No. 1745-TA). In addition, a Tourism Rehabilitation Project (Credit No. 860-TA), a Sixth Education Project (Credit No. 861-TA) and a Fifth Highway Project (Credit No. 876-TA) were approved by the Board in FY79. Since the beginning of this fiscal year five projects were approved: a fourth line of credit to the Tanzania Investment Bank (Loan No. 1750-TA), an Engineering Credit for the Dar-es-Salaam Port (Credit No. S-24-TA), the Tanzania Rural Development Bank (Credit No. 987-TA), a Pyrethrum Project (Credit No. 1007-TA) and a Grain Storage and Milling Project (Credit No. 1015-TA). Projects which have been appraised include a Second Urban Water Supply Project, a Second Technical Assistance Project, a Telecommunications Project, a Coconut Project, a Petroleum Exploration Project, and a Rural Development Project in Mara Region. A small scale industries project, a third urban project, a harbours project, a structural adjustment project, a Coal Engineering Project, and a railway project are also under preparation. 19. Although the comparatively high undisbursed proportion of loans and credits, detailed in Annex II, is in large part a result of the recent approval of many of these projects, it also reflects the fact that overall project implementation has been slower than was projected. The causes of the difficulties in implementation are varied. Some stem from the scarcity of suitably trained and experienced manpower, some reflect the problems in identifying agronomic input packages appropriate to the needs of smallholder farmers while others result from the strains associated with attempting a "frontal attack" on poverty. These problems have been compounded by frequent and drastic administrative changes, which -- although potentially the source of long-term benefits -- have disrupted orderly execution of projects and made parts of earlier project concepts obsolete. Also, the Uganda war (para. 11) has had some impact on project implementation. In the early stages of the war there was some diversion of equipment and manpower; however most of these problems have been solved. The more serious medium term problem involves the financial and foreign exchange implications of the war. If these problems are not resolved, the availability of adequate local funds and the shortage of foreign exchange could become a major constraint to implementation and oper- acing performance. In general, implementation difficulties have been most severe in agriculture, particularly in the smallholder rural sector. As our lending program has increasingly concentrated on this sector, these problems have become correspondingly more apparent and severe. By contrast, the "modern" sector projects have tended to fare better: the Tanzania Investment Bank, Mwanza Textile and Morogoro Industrial Estate Projects, for example, are proceeding well. 20. As the Bank Group's lending program has expanded, increasing attention has been given to measures designed to improve project implementa- tion. A course was conducted in Dar es Salaam in 1973 and again in 1978 on Bank Group procurement with the relevant Government officials. A special project implementation unit was set up in the Ministry of Agriculture and 14 Agricultural Development Services staff have been assigned to Bank Group  - 7 - financed projects in agriculture and rural development. In addition, a number of EDI supported courses on the transport and industry sectors have been held at the East African Management Institute in Arusha Tanzania. Furthermore, the need to establish a close and continuous working level dialogue between responsible Tanzanian officials and Bank Group staff on implementation problems was one of the prime reasons for the expansion of the Resident Mission to two professionals in October 1976. Finally, in February 1977 a regular Government/ Bank Group review of project implementation was established. Discussions on the Bank Group project portfolio, chaired by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and attended by Bank Group staff and officials from implementing agencies, deal in detail with individual problem projects and problems which are affecting project implementation across a number of sectors. As a result of these efforts, there has been some improvement in project implementation. Actions agreed to during the reviews have been completed relatively quickly and coordination and communication between MOF and the various ministries and agencies responsible for project implementation has improved markedly. 21. The Government has become increasingly conscious of the importance of effective project implementation. In addition to fully supporting the project implementation review system, MOF has set up a unit to oversee project performance. As a consequence of these efforts, the disbursement record of Bank Group financed projects has improved somewhat over the last two years, and a recent analysis indicated that the Tanzanian disbursement performance is about equal to the Bank-wide average. While there is still a potential for further significant improvements, the Government is implementing its investment program, including Bank Group and other foreign aided projects, more effec- tively than in the past. However, the impact of the Uganda War (para. 11) on the Government's resources may affect the progress in project implementation until such constraints are dealt with. PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR Education Policy and Strategy 22. Since Independence in 1961 Tanzania has regarded education as an important means of national development. Its First Five-Year Development Plan (1964-69) gave priority to increasing the supply of trained high- and middle- level manpower. The task of Africanizing the civil service was a key objective and the Government established a target of self-sufficiency in trained manpower by 1980. The plan also called for a comprehensive education system for adults and children as soon as financially possible. Then, in the Arusha Declaration in 1967 President Nyerere sharply criticized elitism, neglect of rural areas, and lack of practical experience in formal education. He subsequently laid down the guidelines for education reform in a major policy statement Education for Self-Reliance. Basic education for the entire population, especially in the rural environment, became the highest priority. To this end, farming and practical subjects (including home economics, agriculture and commerce) were introduced in the schools.  23. The educational directives outlined in the Arusha Declaration and the Education for Self-Reliance policy statement were the central features in the education parts of the Second Five-Year Development Plan (1969-74). The target of universal primary education (UPE) by 1989 was established. Moreover, the plan proposed that the primary school should become a "community center," a focal point for meeting the educational needs of the whole community, adults and children. In addition, a national literacy program was launched to eradicate illiteracy. By the end of 1975, cumulative enrollments in literacy classes had reached 5.2 million or nearly 90% of the estimated number of adult illiterates. Even with the new focus on UPE and mass-oriented education and the resource allocation implied, the target for reaching self-sufficiency in higher middle level manpower by 1980 was retained. 24. In 1974, the TANU Executive Committee reviewed the successes and failures in implementing the policy framework of Education for Self-Reliance. The resulting Musoma Resolution declared that UPE should be advanced to November 1977. It also introduced the requirement that university candidates must engage in two years of work experience and receive satisfactory evaluation from both their employer and their local party branch before continuing to higher education. Furthermore, the resolution stressed diversifying secondary education by introducing practical skills training and self-reliance activities in the schools. The Third Five-Year Plan (1976-1981) essentially reiterated the objectives spelled out in the previous plan as modified by the Musoma Resolution, and also introduced the goal of increased female enrollment in secondary education. Education Structure and Management 25. The structure of the formal education system consists of primary education (Standards 1-7), lower secondary education (Forms I-IV), upper secondary (Forms V-VI), and higher education (provided primarily by the University of Dar es Salaam and the Dar es Salaam Technical College). 26. This basic educational structure is supplemented by a range of formal and nonformal specialized training programs under a variety of Ministries. The Ministry of National Education (MOE) is responsible for overall educational policies and standards, and for operating secondary schools, colleges of national education and technical colleges. Since the decentralization in 1972, the regions and districts under the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) are responsi- ble for primary and adult education. The key official in the region is the Regional Education Officer (REO), who is responsible administratively to the Regional Development Director (RDD) and professionally to the MOE. At the district level the District Education Officer (DEO) is administratively respon- sible to the District Development Director (DDD) and professionally to the REO. Both the REO and DEO are assisted by officers responsible for primary school inspection, adult education and supplies and logistics services. In addition, each Village Council has an Education Committee which is increasingly responsi- ble for raising self-help support for primary school construction. In Zanzibar, responsibility for primary and secondary education and teacher training rests with the Zanzibar Ministry of Education.  -9- Primary Education 27. As noted above (para. 24) the highest policy priority in the educa- tion sector in recent years has been the national effort to achieve UPE which brought about an enrollment of 96% of the seven year age group in Standard 1 in 1979. Enrollment figures reflect the rapid pace of progress in the primary school system in recent years: enrollments rose from 1 million in 1972 to 3 million in 1978 and might reach 4 million in 1984. By 1985, barring major setbacks, primary enrollment growth will be more in line with the birth rate. 28. To cope with the large increase in teacher demand that resulted from the acceleration of the UPE target to 1977, the Government embarked in 1976/77 on a five-year program to train roughly 43,000 new teachers, mainly through non-residential distance-learning techniques. The candidates were primary school leavers. The program is more than half-completed and MOE is already planning a continuing inservice residential program to start in 1981 to fill gaps in the background and training of these new teachers. One of the major problems facing the primary subsector is that the primary classrooms in many districts, are not providing the basic conditions for a learning environment: simple furniture, stocks of textbooks and other teaching materials are often missing. Secondary Education 29. In 1978, lower secondary enrollments (Forms I-IV), both public and private, amounted to 59,000 students or 4% of the 14 to 17 year age group of mainland Tanzania. The state-supported and managed public schools accounted for only 37,900, or 64% of this. The proportion of public school enrollment to total secondary enrollment has declined steadily in the past decade as the Government has resisted social demand for more schooling by adhering strictly to manpower demand guidelines set by the Ministry of Manpower Development (MMD) (see para. 37) while private schools have expanded rapidly to meet demand. The quality of the new private schools is lower than that of public schools as, with few exceptions, the private institutions lack adequately equipped facilities and qualified staff. 30. There are a number of issues facing secondary education. First, there is an increasing shortage of science graduates from these schools in spite of the fact that students with graduation in scientific subjects are in greatest demand in qualifying for higher education, in entering professional and vocational training programs or for direct employment. While MOE has recently begun to attempt to remedy this imbalance by shifting school teaching time on the official weekly timetable away from the newer subjects such as home economics, agriculture and commerce to the sciences, significant increases in science graduates will depend on the availability of more science teachers. Since the secondary schools are the source for increasing the supply of teachers, a temporary infusion of expatriate mathematics, physics and chemistry teachers appears to be required to break the present vicious cycle.  - 10 - 31. A second problem facing secondary schools is the low enrollment of girls, which has remained at about 30% of Forms I-IV in public schools since independence. The Government is increasingly determined to rectify this imbalance between the sexes by requiring new lower secondary schools to be coeducational and by opening streams for females at the upper secondary level. One of the goals of the current Five Year Plan (1976-81) is to in- crease opportunities for women in education. The Sixth Education Project (Credit No. 861-TA and para 38) is supporting the Government's program for increasing opportunities for women by adding 16,0 hostel places to each of four existing technical secondary schools. Post Secondary Education 32. After completing Form IV, students who continue their education may attend upper secondary school for two years and thereafter proceed either to university, or to various semi-professional diploma courses, but only after completing national service and two years of work. Alternatively, they may enroll in one of the many post-Form IV colleges and institutes offering specialized training. In fact, these offer over three times more opportunities for further studies than upper secondary schools. In 1978 of 12,500 Form IV leavers, nearly 2,000 entered Form V, while approximately 6,500 entered other training programs. Excluding adult education centers, in 1976 there were approximately 120 colleges and institutes operated or supported by the Government with a total enrollment capacity of about 24,000 students. 33. In July 1970, the three colleges of the University of East Africa became three separate universities in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. The Uni- versity of Dar es Salaam now comprises faculties of arts, law, medicine, engineering, science and agriculture. The university's department of education provides pre-service training for graduate secondary school teachers and for teacher college tutors. In 1978-79 university enrollments totalled about 2,300, but some faculties are operating at as low as 60% of capacity due to a dearth of qualified candidates. In addition, nearly 140 Tanzanian students were enrolled in degree or diploma courses in Uganda and Kenya and 800 in post-secondary courses overseas. Financing Education 34. Education and training activities are largely financed by the Government; parents and the private sector contribute a relatively minor share of total education expenditure. Foreign assistance for education is received from various donor agencies. Out of the total TSh 197.8 million (US$24.4 million) expended on education projects under implementation in 1978-79, approximately 81% of total project costs was financed from external sources: Sweden (TSh 66.7 million), Denmark (TSh 27.1 million), Netherlands (TSh 17.2 million), Germany/FRG (TSh 16.3 million) and the Association (TSh 14.8 million). 1 35. Total public expenditure for education in 1978-79 was budgeted at TSh 1,975 million (US$241 million equivalent), accounting for 15.8% of total  - 11 - Government expenditure or about 6.8% of GDP. Of total expenditure, a quarter is capital expenditure. The expectation for the period of the Third Five Year Plan (1976-81) is that the level of capital expenditure will remain the same in real terms. Recurrent expenditure in 1978-79 amounted to TSh 1,517 million or 21.8% of the total Government recurrent expenditures; 47.2% of total recurrent expenditure on education and training in 1978-79 was accounted for by the MOE, while the regions and other ministries accounted for 35.1% and 17.7% respectively. The main changes in the distribution of recurrent expen- diture by level and type of education in the period 1972-73 to 1978-79 were significant increases in the shares for primary education (from 34.5% to 42.8%) and teacher training (from 5.7% to 9.2%). There were decreases in all other categories of expenditure, notably secondary education (from 16.4% to 10.2%). The large increase for primary education was due to the introduction of UPE which also had a major impact on the recurrent expenditure budgets of the regions: in 1978/79 primary education accounted for 33% of the Regions' total recurrent expenditures. 36. Government recurrent expenditure on education and training will be less burdensome than was anticipated in the 1977 Basic Economic Report, or during the appraisal of the Sixth Education Project. This changed outlook reflects the fact that the most recent growth of primary enrollments (1979) has proven to be more moderate than was projected. For example, enrollment totals of 2.8 million and 3.5 million were projected for the years 1976/77 and 1977/78 respectively, whereas the corresponding actual enrollments (public and private schools) were 2.3 million and 3.0 million. The prospective rate of growth of total recurrent expenditure on education and training is projected at 4% annually, a growth rate which implies a decreasing share for education and training in the Government's total recurrent expenditure. Demand for Trained Manpower 37. In Tanzania as in other countries, the development of manpower resources and their effective utilization are key factors influencing economic growth. Recognizing that a widespread shortage of trained high- and middle- level manpower constitutes a constraint on the economic development of the country, the Government created the MMD in 1975 with the responsibility for forecasting manpower requirements, planning manpower development, and alloca- ting high- and middle-level skilled manpower. MMD also makes recommendations on the desired volume and composition of manpower needed at the secondary and higher levels of education to meet forecasted requirements. MMD estimates reflects the significant shortfall of high- and middle-level manpower require- ments at the moment and project that the gap between supply and demand for higher- and middle-level personnel in Tanzania will persist until 1990. As identified by the Manpower Report to the President (1977) the gap is most pronounced in certain specific professions like pharmacists, engineers, technicians, science teachers, accountants and other professionals requiring scientific knowledge. The Government of Tanzania is trying to remedy these constraints (e.g. by exempting engineering candidates from the two-year national service requirement). However, a doubling of science graduates from universities and other institutes of higher learning is required. As noted below, addressing this constraint is a major feature of the project.  - 12 - Bank Group Experience in the Education Sector 38. The previous six Bank Group-assisted projects in education with a total amount of US$46.2 million, have been directed at the Government's program for manpower development and its training efforts in the rural sector. Two projects, financed in 1963 and 1969, assisted the expansion of general secondary education. The project completion report noted (a) the necessity to expand access for women to the higher and more specialized areas of educa- tion and training; and (b) the need for adequate staff training to meet the staff requirements above all in specialized subjects. The Third Education Project assisted agricultural training facilities for villagers, farmers, and agriculture extension personnel. The major problems of this project, pointed out in the completion report, were the lack of coordination and communica- tion between the ministries involved, and problems facing the construction efforts in rural areas, resulting in much slower performance than was antici- pated at the time of appraisal. These lessons are also reflected in the project performance audit reports for the second and the third education projects. The Fourth Education Project, still under implementation, is directed at developing multi-purpose community education centers for rural areas, improving training of primary teachers and providing facilities for medical education. After a slow startup, it is proceeding well. The Fifth Education Project assists in the villagization program, and expanding the secondary education system. The extensions to secondary schools are proceeding satisfactorily but the construction of houses in 1,500 scattered villages, as part of the rural training component of the project, is behind schedule due to the unreliability of community self-help and the difficulties of implementing such a dispersed construction program. Latest estimates indicate that the project can be completed by the original June 30, 1982 closing date. The Sixth Education Project, begun in 1979, is helping to improve and increase specialized skill training (vocational training, accountancy traiting, and management training); project implementation is progressing satisfactorily. 39. The proposed project would incorporate several of the main lessons learned from the Association's past lending to Tanzania's education sector: it would (a) substantially increase female enrollment in higher secondary education; (b) deliberately avoid further investments in major curriculum innovations (such as secondary school practical subjects); (c) be confined to institutions which fall under the responsibility of one Ministry (rather than several), the Ministry of National Education, and the PMO; (d) make direct short-term provision of the most critically needed types of teachers instead of only calling on the Government to assure a supply of them; and (e) allow a project implementation period of six years. PART IV. THE PROJECT 40. The project was prepared by the Government of Tanzania with assis- tance from the Association. Negotiations were held in April 1980. The Government Delegation was headed by Mr. S. Tunginie, Principal Secretary of the Ministry of Education (MOE), and included representatives of MOF and the  - 13 - Ministry of Justice. A report entitled "A Seventh Education Project in the United Republic of Tanzania" (No. 2782-TA) is being circulated separately. A credit and project summary is at the front of this report and Annex III lists supplementary project data. Project Objectives and Description 41. The proposed project aims at (a) increasing access to primary education for children from remote and educationally under-privileged areas so that they can participate fully in the national development; (b) improving the quality and efficiency of upper secondary education, particularly in science- based fields; (c) augmenting teacher training facilities on mainland Tanzania and on Zanzibar; and (d) enhancing the capacity of key governmental and parastatal agencies to manage resource flows in the education sector. To accomplish these objectives the project includes the following items: Primary education: construction, furnishing and equipping of about 360 primary classrooms and related facilities in four of the least developed districts; provision of teaching materials, including textbooks, to sixteen rural districts. Secondary education: construction, furnishing and equipping of a demonstration school for the University of Dar es Salaam and of two lower secondary schools; construction, furnishing and equipping of facilities for about 23 new science and mathematics streams in about ten existing schools and one new secondary school; reequip- ping, refurnishing and rehabilitating of teaching facilities for about 34 existing science and mathematics streams; provision of 100 staff-years of graduate teachers of mathematics, physics and chemistry. Teacher Training: provision of equipment for science laboratories in four teacher training colleges and in the Dar es Salaam Technical College; construction, furnishing and equipping of a new teacher training college and renovating an existing college in Zanzibar. Educational Quality Support Services: provision of storage facilities, vehicles and fellowships to Tanzania Elimu Supplies (TES) and to the National Examination Council (NEC); fellowships for planning personnel; consultants costs for preinvestment studies, project monitoring and evaluation. 42. A particular objective of the project is to raise female participation in the education system. At the primary level, girls occupy about 40% of the places in the upper primary grades and 46% in all primary grades combined. In the poorest districts of Tanzania these percentages are inevitably even lower. With its primary education component, the project would increase the enrollment of girls to the national target of about 50% in all grades. At the upper secondary level, at present girls occupy only about 24% of these places, but since about three fourths of the upper secondary places created by the project would be for girls, it is expected that by project completion in 1986  - 14 - the female share of places would approach one-third. This would in turn directly increase the chances for girls to proceed to higher education. Detailed Features Primary Education 43. New Primary School Facilities. The Tanzanian policy of integration of all regions and ethnic groups in the national development process appears to be successful in respect to primary education, except in two specific geographic areas: the Masai rangelands in the Arusha Region and, to a lesser extent, the coastal districts of Lindi Region. The special socio-economic circumstances in these two regions have made the Government aware that by building its rural development policy too rigidly around the self-help prin- ciple, it would condemn these areas to fall further behind as the rest of the country achieves UPE. For that reason, Government policy is to assist these areas so that they, too, can become able to practice self-help, rather than face continued socio-economic isolation. In accordance with this policy, the project would provide new facilities at primary schools for Monduli and Kiteto districts in Arusha Region and to Kilwa and Lindi rural districts in Lindi Region. Approximately 360 new classrooms with office/storage and sanitary facilities for about 21,000 new pupils would be built. Since the classrooms would be located in very remote areas, housing would be provided for teachers. Given the low population density in the four districts, the villages to be chosen and the appropriate size of the schools would be determined by school location planning (SLP) criteria. If necessary, the services of a SLP expert to aid the districts would be financed under the project. The Borrower would forward to the Association for its review by June 30, 1981 a list of village locations and school sizes with supporting data for the school facilities to be built in those four districts (Section 3.06 of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). 44. Materials for Existing Primary Classrooms. In 16 other rural districts where community self-help has been successfully mobilized to con- struct suitable classrooms, resources have been insufficient to furnish and equip these classrooms. To realize the full return from the investments in classrooms, the project would provide an average of US$250,000 equivalent to each of these 16 districts to procure and deliver initial stocks of furniture and teaching materials. This would reach about 16% of Tanzania's 1979 school population. The 16 districts have been provisionally selected on the basis of lower enrollment ratios than the national average; the final list would be provided to the Association for its review by December 31, 1980 (Section 3.07 of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Secondary Education 45. Secondary Schools at the University of Dar es Salaam and in Ngara and Dodoma. The project would finance a Demonstration Secondary School (Form I-VI) at the University Campus of Dar es Salaam and a new secondary school (Form I-VI) in Ngara in Ziwa Magharibi Region, and add two new day streams to the existing lower secondary school (Form I-IV) in Dodoma.  - 15 - 46. Streams for Upper and Lower Secondary Schools. As discussed (see paras. 27 and 28) the present capacity of public (and private) schools to meet the demand for qualified mathematics and science students is not sufficient. The project therefore would support the construction, furnishing and equipping of science and mathematics facilities (including staff houses) by adding 23 new streams in about ten existing schools and by rehabilitating and refurnish- ing about 34 existing science facilities in about nine existing schools. To increase female participation from its present low-level (see para. 31), 63% of the additional new enrollment created by the project would be used by girls. Class group sizes would be enlarged in order to increase further the number of student places. It is the Association staff's view that this can be done without reducing the quality of education. The project would provide the extra dormitory accommodation to make this increase possible. The Borrower has agreed that the class group size would be enlarged by December 31, 1983 (Section 3.10 of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). 47. Graduate Teachers of Mathematics and Science. Teacher staff projec- tions indicate a continuing shortfall of teachers for mathematics, physics and chemistry during the project implementation period. The project would there- fore finance about 100 staff-years of volunteer expariate teachers in these subjects. The teachers recruited need not necessarily be confined to the schools built or equipped under the project, provided they teach the designated subjects in public schools. The Government would pay the volunteer teachers salaries sufficient to attract qualified teachers from suitable sources. As one of the consequences of the shortage of high level manpower, Tanzanian teachers are often transferred out of active teaching or out of the education sector entirely. To address this problem, the Government is considering a number of proposals directed at retaining teachers in active service. To ensure the availability of qualified teachers, the Borrower would provide the Association (a) by March 31, 1981 with a plan including a timetable for the recruitment of the volunteer teachers to be provided under the project, and (b) by June 30, 1981 with a 10 year plan of action - which would commence in 1982 - for the training, posting and retaining of local graduate science and mathematics teachers (Section 3.08 of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). 48. Teacher Training. The relatively low level of performance in mathematics and science in secondary schools originates partially in deficient teaching in the primary schools. The MOE is therefore setting aside four colleges of national education to specialize in training science teachers for the upper primary grades. The project would provide the necessary extra laboratory equipment and textbooks for these colleges and replace worn-out and depleted equipment for physics, chemistry and biology laboratories at the Dar es Salaam Technical College to improve the training of about 35 laboratory technicians to assist secondary school science teachers. 49. In Zanzibar, the percentage of untrained primary teachers is about 48%. To reduce this percentage significantly and to supply additional new teachers in Zanzibar, the project would finance the construction, furnishing and equipping of a second teacher training college in Mkokotoni at the northern end of Zanzibar island, thereby doubling annual output of trained  - 16 - teachers from 200 to 400 per annum. The new college would enroll 400 lower secondary school leavers into a two-year pre-service course. The project would also finance some refurnishing and structural repairs of the existing physical accommodation at Nkrumah Teacher Training College, the only college in Zanzibar today. At present, some of the staff and student living accom- modation at Nkrumah College is used by persons who either work or study in other institutions around Zanzibar town. However, the Government has agreed that in future the accommodation of both teacher training colleges be reserved for the exclusive use of college staff and students (Section 4.03 of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Education Quality Support Services 50. Tanzania Elimu Supplies (TES). Responsibility for procuring and distributing all school instructional material rests with TES, a parastatal under the control of the MOE. However, other than a modern warehouse facility in the port area of Dar es Salaam, TES does not have an infrastructure for delivering materials upcountry. The result is that REO's, DEO's and even Headmasters, regularly have to go to Dar es Salaam to buy items and hire their own transport for delivery, resulting in extra costs and a lower volume of deliveries. Therefore the project would provide TES with needed capital to finance 6 upcountry warehouses scaled to the expected volume of traffic, two vehicles per warehouse, and 10 fellowship/years for TES staff to gain spe- cialized training in procurement, stock control and transport management. 51. National Examination Council (NEC). Tanzanian candidates facing selection to secondary and post secondary education are evaluated by continuous assessment in their schools and by nationally standardized final examinations which are set and administered by the NEC. Thus far with fewer than 200,000 candidates to screen per year, a purely hand-operated examination assessment system has been sufficient. Faced with the rapid increase in numbers of candidates in the next five years (an annual average of 500,000 Standard 7 exam candidates is expected), the Government is aware of the need to modernize the examination system in terms of data processing, efficiency, security against leakages and quality measurement of learning objectives. The project therefore would help to build up the capacity of NEC by providing the second phase to its headquarters building, about 12 staff-years of technical assis- tance specialists in systems analysis, examination research and item develop- ment, data processing, and computer programming and maintenance along with about 32 fellowship/years in these fields plus statistics. The Government estimates an annual financial saving of nearly TSh 7.0 million (US$850,000) from installing the new system. It would be in place in 1984 and would also help process annually an average of 75,000 other post-primary examination candidates. The facility could also be available to other users in the sector outside peak load periods. 52. Research, Pre-investment Studies, Monitoring and Evaluation. To operate successfully, certain staff in various departments of MOE and other sector institutions like the Institute of Education need upgrading in skills either to generate or to use research results. Thus, the project would  - 17 - provide about 36 staff-years in fellowships for these personnel who, upon completion of their training, would be involved in research activity. The project would also provide support to the Government to carry out preinvest- ment, project monitoring, or evaluation studies. The project would finance the equivalent of about six staff-years consultant services and cover a portion of operating costs incurred in the execution of specifically agreed studies. The Government would provide the Association, for its review by March 31, 1981, with the topics, terms of reference and staffing of the studies to be carried out under the project and their costs (Section 3.9 of draft Joint Financing Agreement). Implementation 53. The Project Coordination Unit (PCU), established under the Fifth Education Project (Credit No. 607-TA) within the PMO to assist in rural development programs would be responsible for overseeing the implementation of the primary school component. The PCU, assisted by a team of specialists from the NORDIC countries, has wide experience in Tanzania's rural development and is qualified to implement the primary education component of this project. The construction of the new school facilities in each of the four districts would be under the direction of the DDDs (see para. 26) and actual construction would be carried out through small rural contractors or local funds (the Swahili term for local skilled craftsmen or artisans), rural construction units (RCU) or the Ministry of Work's district division work forces. There are major constraints facing Tanzania's building industry: (i) the con- tractors' difficulties in obtaining local bank credit; (ii) long delays in receiving payments for work done; (iii) shortage of skilled manpower and qualified site foremen and engineers; and (iv) lack of available building materials, transportation facilities and spare parts for machinery. These potential problems facing the project would be reduced by (a) the DDD's direct involvement in implementation8they will arrange for the purchase of all building materials, and ensure their timely delivery to the building sites; (b) the strengthening of the DDD's offices in the four districts concerned by two volunteer building technicians for each office, each technician having local counterparts (Section 3.01 (b) of the draft Joint Financing Agreement); (c) PCU's supervisory activities; and (d) import of building materials that are not available locally but required for the civil works included in the project (Section 3.01 (b) of the Joint Financing Agreement). 54. The secondary school component would be implemented by the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), an administrative and architectural unit established within MOE for the implementation of education projects assisted by the Bank Group and other donors, including the African Development Bank, UNDP, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, West Germany, and the USSR. Local and expatriate staff of the PIU and other sections of the sector planning depart- ment of the MOE make up a total of about 100 persons. The unit is receiving substantial technical assistance from DANIDA in particular; the Tanzanian Government has concluded an agreement extending the ongoing DANIDA technical assistance program to cover the implementation period of the project. The necessary technical support staff would therefore be available during the  - 18 - project implementation period and the unit, by its size and experience, is qualified to implement the relevant components. The architectural, engineer- ing, procurement and building supervision services provided by DANIDA to the PIU would be free of charge to the project. However, in anticipation of an increased workload for the PIU, it would become necessary to call upon locally established consultants for architectural and engineering services. Approxi- mately US$1.3 million equivalent would therefore be provided under the credit for such services. The consultants would be selected and commissioned on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association (Section 3.02 of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Project Costs and Financing 55. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$55.5 million equivalent, including duties and taxes estimated at US$0.5 million equivalent. The foreign exchange component is estimated at US$32.3 million equivalent or 59% of the net project cost. The foreign exchange component takes into account the need to import most equipment, possibly building materials, and the recent increases in the cost of fuel. Costs for civil works, furniture, equipment and vehicles are based on results of recent competitive bidding and contract awards in the Fifth Education Project (Credit No. 607-TA). Civil works costs for new facilities for primary schools are based on a simplified design benefiting from actual experience with an ongoing primary school construction program. Average construction unit costs per square meter, based upon exchange rates reflecting the scarcity of foreign exchange, are US$55 for primary school buildings, and US$225 for secondary schools. Unit cost for academic/ communal areas per student place for primary school is US$95 and for a new secondary school is US$2,200. These costs are reasonable in comparison with other African countries. Technical assistance is estimated, on an average, at US$50,000 per staff-year for expatriates recruited abroad and about US$30,000 if locally recruited, bringing the total to US$2.9 million. Physical contin- gencies have been estimated at 10% of the base cost of civil works and pro- fessional services, and 5% for all other project components. Price con- tingencies are estimated at 33%. Details of the project costs are included in the credit and project summary. 56. The proposed credit of the Association of US$25.0 million would finance about 45% of the net project cost. The credit would be on standard terms. External assistance would also be provided by DANIDA with a grant of US$20.0 million equivalent, representing 36% of the net project cost. To- gether, the IDA and DANIDA financing would cover 82% of net project cost, which includes all the foreign exchange costs and 23% of net local costs. The Government is expected to provide US$10.0 million net of taxes (18%). It would be a condition of effectiveness that the DANIDA Grant Agreement and the Joint Financing Agreement have become effective (Section 4.01 of the Develop- ment Credit Agreement). 57. In any year during project implementation, the maximum Government capital contribution to the project, inclusive of taxes, is not expected to  - 19 - exceed US$1.5 million equivalent. This figure is 0.2% of the 1978/79 develop- ment budget of Tanzania or about 2.7% of the educational capital budget. Re- current costs generated by the project are estimated at about US$1.36 million per annum. When the project is fully operative, this would be equivalent to about 0.5% of the Government's projected recurrent budget for education by 1985/86 and 22% of the net increase in the budget from 1978/79 to 1985/86. Procurement and Disbursement 58. Contracts for civil works, furniture, equipment, textbooks and vehicles, totalling about US$26.0 million equivalent including contingencies, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with the Bank Group's guidelines for procurement, except as follows: (a) civil works contracts for primary schools, and other contracts estimated to cost less than US$300,000 equivalent each; (b) furniture, equip- ment, textbooks and vehicles contracts each costing less than US$100,000 equivalent; and (c) local transporation of furniture and equipment. These exceptions to ICB, estimated at an aggregate of about US$5.9 million, would be tendered by competitive bidding and advertised locally in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Association (Schedule 3.A and D of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). For purposes of bid evaluation, qualified domestic building contractors would be allowed a preferential margin of 7.5% over bid prices of competing foreign contractors, and domestic manufacturers of furni- ture and equipment would be allowed a preference of 15% or the existing rate of import duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing foreign suppliers (Schedule 3.B and C of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Sketch design, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture, equipment and textbooks, including proposed groupings, would be reviewed by the Associa- tion. Items would be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage competi- tive bidding and to enable bulk procurement. Review of tender evaluation documents by the Association prior to award would be required only for con- tracts above US$300,000 equivalent each for civil works and US$100,000 equiva- lent each for furniture, equipment and vehicles (Schedule 3.E of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Civil works by force account are estimated at about US$1.8 million. 59. Disbursements would be on the basis of: (a) 100% of foreign or 75% of local expenditures for civil works; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures or 85% of local expenditures for equipment, furniture, vehicles and textbooks; (c) 100% of foreign or 85% of local expenditures for technical assistance, profes- sional services, research and development, training and studies; and (d) 20% of local expenditures for project administration. Disbursements from the Association's credit and the DANIDA grant would be made pro rata in the ratio of 5:4. They would be fully documented except for local expenditures for (a) civil works by force account, (b) operational costs, and (c) project adminis- tration. Disbursements for these components would be made against statements of expenditure prepared by the PIU and PCU, the documentation for which would not be submitted to the Association but retained by the Borrower for review during project supervision.  - 20 - Auditing and Reporting 60. Auditing would be required on an annual basis for expenditures financed under this project and in particular for work carried out through the PCU (force account), operational expenses for project administration and local transportation of furniture and equipment to school sites. Auditing would be performed by auditors acceptable to the Association (Section 4.01 (c) of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Audit reports would be submitted to the Association within twelve months following the end of the Borrower's fiscal year. Semi-annual reports on implementation progress would be submitted to the Association for its review (Section 3.04 b(iii) of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). No later than six months after the credit closing date, the Government would provide the Association with a completion report (Section 3.04(c) of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). Justification and Risks 61. At both primary and secondary levels the project would increase access to education for children from remote and educationally underprivileged areas, and would improve the quality, efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the school system. At the primary level the project would supply 21,000 new places and improve about 448,000 places, as well as help as many as 2,000 villages to have their own school building. At the secondary level the project would provide about 2,760 new secondary school places (upper and lower), make improvements to another 1,860, and provide teachers for about 5,000 students per annum. The projects' assistance to institution building and educational quality services would indirectly raise the standards of learning for virtually all students in the education system below university level. 62. The major risk for the primary education component lies in con- structing schools in isolated locations in four least developed districts in Tanzania. However, technical assistance would be provided to address this problem. The chief risk applying to the secondary school components lies in the uncertain supply of mathematics and science teachers. The project would reduce this problem temporarily by providing teachers, but steps need to be taken for a longer-term solution. The Government would be asked to provide the Assocation with a long-term plan to remedy teacher shortages in the science subjects to commence in 1981 (Section 3.08 (b) of the draft Joint Financing Agreement). PART V. LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 63. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the United Republic of Tanzania and the International Development Association, the draft Joint Financing Agreement between the United Republic of Tanzania, the Kingdom of Denmark and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1(d) of the Articles of Agreement are being dis- tributed to the Executive Directors separately.  - 21 - 64. Annex III contains special features of the draft Joint Financing Agreement. Conditions of effectiveness of the proposed credit would be that the DANIDA Grant Agreement and the Joint Financing Agreement be effective (Section 4.01 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 65. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI. RECOMMENDATION 66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President July 8, 1980 Washington, D.C.  -22 - ANNEX I - 22 - ~~~Page 1 of 6 TANZANIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET TANZANIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGRTED AVRAOES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SO. [D.) - HST RECENT ESTIMATE TOTAL 945.1 AGRICULTURAL 498.0 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE ab AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US5) 70.0 120.0 230.0 228.9 726.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 41.0 62.0 65.0 a0.0 699.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 10.2 13.3 16.9 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 4.8 6.9 10.8 17.3 28.9 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 32.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 92.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2145 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. EM. 11.0 14.0 18.0 27.4 61.7 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 21.0 26.0 34.0 82.6 126.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.7 44.4 45.7 44.9 45.5 15-64 YRS. 54.3 52.5 51.2 52.2 51.6 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 URBAN 5.0 6.3 8.9 6.8 4.9 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.0 47.0 48.0 47.4 46.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 22.0 19.0 16.0 19.6 16.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION BATE .. 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. 93.6 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. . POOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 95.0 104.0 91.0 91.8 94.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 85.0 91.0 89.0 90.2 92.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 44.0 49.0 49.0 53.0 53.0 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 17.0 21.0 21.0 18.4 15.6 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 32.0 25.0 20.0 27.7 21.3 HEALTh LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 42.0 47.0 51.0 45.3 50.1 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 155.0C/c ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL ,. 13.0 39.0 23.2 31.0 URBAN .. 61.0 88.0 58.0 66.8 RURAL .. 9.0 36.0 16.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 17.0 28.9 URBAN .. .. 88.0 67.0 RURAL .. .. 14.0 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 21020.0/d 24770.0 15450.0 30910.4 14508.2 POPLLATION PER NURSING PERSON 10440.OL.de 3830.0 2760.0 5793.2 3279.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 570.0/d .. 440.0 1198.9 1141.5 URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. ROUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL *- 4.4 . URBAN *2 . RURAL *- 4-5/c 5.3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DSELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..  - 23 - ANNEX I PaRe 2 of 6 TANZANIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET TANZANIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGITED AVERAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMTE ). MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCCHE 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OP SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 25.0 38.0 70.0 57.7 61.7 MALE 33.0 46.0 79.0 74.2 69.2 FPMALE 18.0 30.0 60.0 54.1 51.4 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 3.0 3.0 10.0 20.6 MALE 2.0 4.0 5.0 13.7 29.2 FEMALE 1.0 2.0 2.0 7.1 14.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (X OF SECONDARY) 23.0 .. .. 6.8 7.0 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO * PRIMARY 45.0 46.0 50.0 45.0 36.6 SECONDARY 20.0 19.0 20.0 25.2 24.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 9.5/d 28.l1c 66.0 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 2.5 2.7 3.6 38.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 2.0 11.0 19.0 31.5 83.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.3 .. 1.8 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER ThOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 5.0 4.5 4.6 24.2 CINEhA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.5 .. 0.2 .. 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 4734.5 5841.7 7035.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 37.1 36.6 34.0 33.5 38.1 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 89.3 86.0 83.0 80.7 54.3 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 3.8 5.0 6.0 8.1 17.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 44.7 43.5 42.2 42.2 38.8 MALE 56.9 55.7 54.3 55.1 48.4 FEMALE 32.8 31.5 30.3 29.5 29.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 33.5 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 63.3 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 2.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 7.8 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URbAN .. .. 147.0 138.2 RURAL .. .. 109.0 86.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USs PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 125.0 107.0 RURAL .. .. 74.0 65.0 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 10.0 RURAL .. .. 60.0 66.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data aod is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1978. /c 1967; /d 1962; /e Registered, not all practicing in the country. April, 1980  - 24 - ANNEX I DEFINITIONS OP SOCIAL INDICATORSSP g 3 o Notee; Although the data eta drawn fro. ofe generally judged the meat authoritativ eand reliable, it should also be -oted that they nay not he inter- nationally -oaparable h.o.u. o*f the 1uok of standardised deinitions and ono..epte used hy diffS rant no iint collectting the dato. The data are, none- the1e... us.eful to dstriha ordare of magnitude. indicate trends, and oharartt-in tarnin maJor dlff-rr-a between c.. outrie.. The-efnng roups are '(I) the sam otuntry group of ths sub) sot tou.try and (2) a onuo.try group oith onehthigier overugantn than the country group ofthe auhjat ...untry (enoept foe "Capital Surplus Oil Enportere" groap hthee vMiddle Ione- North Africa and Middle fEl." J. chosen b..oos. of etn..nger enin-ulurlffinities). In the referen.s grnup data tha averages. ... poyalontn weighted arloito-i s...na for eath isodiontor and nb-ec I olyha-nt l...at half af the onisnagroup has data for that indototr. Sino. the onvrage of ...unorisa nng the indi-aorn dependa on the -cilahility of data n is non unif.-a, oatln ut he enernisd in relating avrages of one indicator to oother. The. en gr-e eo only ce.Su 1in conperiog the colo ofoeindi.tatr at a ta eneng the toun.ory and ref-....t groupa. LANE ulREA (thousand aq.km.) fooclatiocpe b cncu- oh . 'oydl'tc aovuao- by tuatno on prut-toong phy- To-tal - Tonal eurfeon ersa comprising land ansa and inland -aters. aioa:, ullfird co-a-dur-l -choo1 at -ovrnity leve. Agri-ultural - tneteo giolue area ucd tsaporarily on permatetly Poultotpr iunio Pernoc - Populacivo divided by tuber of pract.icing f.r crops, ynture.. mria andkitchen gardena or to lie fallow; 1977 data. melt nod fetole gradvaetc.rns pu-ni-alc _Ien ad aeitatnoea Poocltnio cer Houitol Sod - total oobv, rural - Populatico (.totl, lAP PE CAPTA 10$) -GNP pet .a.pita eanisat.es t ourrent marhat ptios, o-l- uthan, ud rural1)divided byhiob _lo repcit tabet of hoapita1 hedn oulated by sm nonaatathod at World Sank Atls(1906-78 basis) 1960, a-aihlebl it public and private georr1 and apecialieed hospital and in- 19I, ed 1978 data. habilitatio-cotra.Ropitelt are .Ceoblinheen.e yorpmaently ntaffad bya, ls t one.hyli. tEou.blihbteet providing principally o_todial EAtEGY CiN1ttl9TION PEt CAPITA - Annual ooa..ption of ooercia1 ene rgy (tool carear Inon incldd uppoeias oeet nld elo n eia and lignite,P ptroleum, naurl .a and hydro-, nuonr and geotherma clot- oncoera non pe- -aetlyntaffnd by a phyniciac (hut by A medical. anietut. troltyf Y)in khiogrn of coal eqiaetper capita; 1960, 1970, and 1978 n-ra, nideife, n-.) biho ffor ic-patle a- oaodtinInd provide data. Iiitad range of radical facilition. cr nainnicl purP.ee urbe bosh.pi- tm include bISOn prinvipalor.r .. and .peialieed onttain, and rota POPULATIOS ASS VITAL. STATISTICS hvnplain oya or ovo h-gptni un.d v-dcai end atrri'ty cnot Total Popalatin.. Mld-Year laillina). As of July 1; 1960, 1970, and 1976 Adnllalona pet fo-citaI led otltuhr of adnlicnin. 00 or discharges daa tot iopat. .dIvided ty tIooro fhd. UrbanPopultio Iereto 1tonal -Rtio of urban noItotl population; differen definitiona of urban areas.myfferttounrbhlity of data HOUSING aaog norise;1,i960, 1970, and 1978 data A-erac lien of i..nebold (pov...n coo honerbold) - 2nla un, and onra1- Poultion lo yna hl - Curetpplto.rjoioaaebsdo 90 ndtheir main aa A bo-drr yr lodger nay or may c be inoludad in total pouainby age and .ao and tehir mortaity and fartilintp ratna. tha h ...ebhld for otatinttca1 puryose. Pr.jeoti.. peraee.ntrs foe mortality eatse nomprise of three levelauasun A-trenenuber of p....n. per ccc - tcool. urbac, nod rural - Adreraaue inn life -opa-t-ncy or birth intr..sing nith v..untryt. per .apit. income ba rf po..... per - roo.,i all -rbu, nod rural ocoupiad convetional 1eca, nod tamal life enpautany tbabileinig an 77.5 years. The para- dwe1ingn, -1eciey lvlng cldennprntnttvouoad notere for fertility nate also hav three level ustunJg dacline in. veocoplod parts. fertili ty accrding to inc... level and Peat family Plancg pettrnate.... Actea tc El-etricit (pooceo of dwollrn - ool rn n ruca1 - la-b count ry in oh- en . aiaod Ott of thesa nine cbinationt of .rtroliny Co-vecionuI dwIllng cih letricity it liccig qart.tet a percetage an:d fertillty trends f.r ProJ_ion purpa-e. of totol, -nd, v rural dwelliog r-otyt-vly. ittiono.ry populatioo -Inanatoio..ary ppalanton tbare ia to growth iloor the birth rate ia equal to the deseh rate, and alto thn age t-utun in- iDUCATION mat ne .o.ntent. Thin is nbiev-d only after f-etility rates decline to dutdiroletcno ,ba replaoe..soo level ci unit net reproduction ra te, oh. ecteh g...rutivc Pimaro uchool -tonal, male ovA frt..an- Gco- total, rue.I nnl ci ume ralans tsef nactp.Tho etanio..ary populationsin e enolon fal gs tor rmrylvlgsprtne orepr nin esnimated on tbe baia of oh. proje-tad haracterllion of the population piuyebv-u puattc_a onrolylcldaoirtae 6-11 in the year 2000, and the rate of dnclino of ferllo rate crPlaeI.r btalnr fcc diff-net logohny of prinery education;for aeci level. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .i PP.. !-r - .. Tear statid..nry porolatico in reached - Th. yea what ntati..ary populatic- -ivnu ppi r bo.oo bv th officia schoo"' e si-e ban banornached. S-coda school - otl.t1 nob. end female - C-oputd a ah-va; ......dary PPoonleion Oetaity euacoqlrntent fcv yern ofopcedprimary isrcin Per so. ha.- Mid-omer population per sqoaro kiloeter (100 heonarna) of yrcvidvs gEcera,voa- lnti yr teaho tralong I-tattu ions for pupib noral area. unuall~~~~~~~~~~. 1y of 121.n 17 yearn of oge; c-rropondence .rounse are geonrally Pee eq. hut. aicl-tara1 land - Coaputod - above for ariulorl o e-ncluded only. Vocaticonal enr olnrot (corcen of ovdnoy) - Tocaloin...II-lit-Oc- PPorlunion Aun Structure (pern..nt) - Childrso (0-l4 ynarn), wcrkins-oge 115 include tco l inutio,c therpyrgrrns chich operate i.d.pa- 64y years), and retired (63 yearn andv) asperc...ntgo. of aid-year pnpv- dently or at depafoen- of ..n..vndnry Icatitutin._ lation; 1960. 1970. and 19 S data., u_ul-o_toe ret-n rnry o evdar,-Totul1 todentonravolld in Porulation Grntnh Ra,te iPreteo) - total - Ao...nI grcerh rates of tonal rid- poiery and secodary ieoela dIvided by cunbrrt .. ahers Ii th. pea ppuaton fr 1950-60, 1960-70, end 1970-08. bocroopondiog 1-orl.. PEpulelit irot ae(eret. n - AnnualI grooth volta of urhac pOp.- Adult literavy rate (percent) - Ltto...teadulta (ablo no rtad and trite) latione for 1950-60, 1960-70, end 1970-786..napeoc -naf of otal. advlo .poyn...io agod 11 yearn and aver. Crud.e, Orrh Rat (pear tho...od) - Annual Ive births pac thou..and of old-year Populaion; 1960, 1970. aud 19 78 da ta. CONSUMPTION Crude leath Rtle(_r thbauaaad) -SAnnual deaths per hoo....d of nid-ynar Pas..ngnor Care (p.r toun oualo Panegrr cone -omPrite motor population ; 1960. 1970,an 1979data, cart touingla hnegtprot cldna loca oro n ironsR trorductien Rate -Avenaga ou bet of daugheera a oa ill beer in allitery veicet- he ora rpoutive penind if abs enperteaten p...ent age-a pacIitfict- Rudic cRceivorn (r-rhb.....d populatior) -All cypro cf cec... ec radJb tltyrteeu aly five-year averags. ending Sc 1960,197, end 1970. broodveta to goneru1 public per thoon..d of ppitc olde unli- Family Plant" -Accencorn.Aunstua(tho-eand)- dAtnll nubeo anatra c--odJraelnr ....oocion v v y-ram ohm reOilra,tion ofradio n ofbrhcnrldvceudrasle fntonllt0pann rie. nni fen aafo ntnoaonycob oprbenotcs rually lannie-Onene prarnet of married nn-.) -iPrc...t.go cO maried ..u.tino ffboliuhod lyiconu lug.-r 'tonen cf otiId-hbUrn ago (15-Au pears rho nin hrth-c...stc1 d-vi-a tc TO t-i-rn (per thonn...d vopulation) - IT -eceo-r for bcoadcaa t to all married ocmen 10 sam agn group. g-aat ubi o thcut-d populooiuc; ..clude;'n noicun- ITf-reeivrn PINE ASS RETEITIOlS ~~~~~inv .t curion an .In yearn oh- regintralont of T ttnw in rfe_t. FOOD _ AND NUTR.ITION ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ leN...pape Cirt.latict (per tbocerd rpclut .c -...o.ch uvrg ircos- lae eo cd Prodationrt Caia(991-0)-Ind-tcfpr cait nnal nn of "daily gnrlitra esae" nieoaeidclph Prdutie f llfndnodlie. routin ntadt ao nd find and licotico depond prinaril tcrcniagcrlnw.I scniee Ia 1 alndar year basin. Coetnditien -aven primarygods eg ua n no ho "daily' it it eppear a lel .Icr times creA loatead of suar) which ac edibloondoonoenutrienoa(eug. ..ff.. erA CineaA- ol AttndaceItt -eyln -r Y-an-lee no. the n-nber of te r nldo.d). Aigghregt poucinofoth ,otry in bnd nollcacd drn h nr nldiug adminnico to driv-Iolea natiocal average producer print neihtai; 1961-65 17,ad IRgdat. aincbl uis Pertoic nunLY of nloriosIareo fr.n rnete -Tepuned frye t. onryouvaet of t no te RpISesavilahein couctr yer capita tABeR FOtCi per day. mailable aPpl oprin doetiBrodcto, tportu Into loto1 Labor F.0cc (thb...avdc) E concll cltP...c.s, icIudiog noPor. ad change in stack. Net sappllea stuuda anma feed, neds.ond fonoen acd unecplvyod but ecciud. hc.n. 'iv.a tudecta, tc qat'itie cuedi fand Pr-o.e.ing, end Ie...n in dintrihutin. cRquiv- Dtfitlric.. to variv c... tnatno oprbo 16,17 n aene were etimated ho FAO hesed on physiolngionl n..ede for -t1a eoi- 197h dota. cIty and brao cosdrigevrana t-mp-r-ur. hbdy weighta~,, eg:eao(oceon) - Final lohoon forea eretg f on,obrfre an ann dinoribuoc tpptio n, and llowin 101 trc..otfor we t irrlco(ecn)-Labor fvrrInfrtg forruory hoingad bo....hold level ; 1961-65,1970 and 91977 data. 1 fiuhing anper-tage of tvta1 labor fooct; 1060. 10970 and 1091 data. Peo capita nupply of proni,, (aen te day) - ProteIn contant cf per otpito lod.ntr, (orrent - Labcv (foc- lv ininog, otcutoc aueturing nrc -opply of foodP.r day. Net -upply of food is dnnd an abov.- Ro- and electr icit. ctor sod gaonprragof tcre lbor force;I96AI ..vnet foc nil counrie -ttbliahed ho USDA provide for aicimo iRiov 976 dta. allownce of 60 aramao Pcrprti pr day and 20 arase of animal -n ..,cco Ioonon(ccnu-cac van adOnee'fuup"tconor puln protein, of ehih 17 grno thold he animlpoen Th-netand- cvty tr 00crptdatol.me,nd tnrlbrforn animal pnocein as an avrage for the world, propc..d by PAD in the ThIrd 190IRC n 95dta. ThearIL'pricptocaeuefcin World Food Survy; 1961-65, ilad 1977 data.97 :,r .i. .r. f.-n Per ncita rotei 51rp free19fn0 and7 nolne -.rti upp ffn r ....s .occr f the Vpoplati-, ond long lIst tren.d. A foe esti- Frivadi~ Ico ml endn I pu.s.. it gam per dap;96-65, 1970l ao 190d g. m o r ft ainln c -d lr~ ii. p:,Ip!,R ::.pr ay; 61 197 .d17 dt. tc.....ic Dopsodeoco Ratio - Ratio of ppoIti-c ceder 10 and h5 ud oe Child (eara 1-uI) Silaly tat rne thosad) A An.uni deatha per hb.u..nd Or on. _tbr ntat labor fcr- age rou 1 yers,to nhildren in, this aan group; for meat developlegcon irls atadeive fomlife tablue; 1960, 19 70 and 1977 deta. ESCORt DISTRIEUTION gtaini Peroantoae of P~~~~~~~~ ~~~~rivt lote Iboch in oath and hind) - R ..elo-d by rirhent HELife lnarnra.1b(er)-Ae enme fyaso iermIio 5pret ihs 1 --orec, p-oo- 70 p..ce-c, end poornet or Perceot at bIrth; 1961, 1900 and 197 dca.. infant scrv-linv Raet (pra thb...ad) - Annua dn-hn of Wnfo under one year POVERTY TARGET GOUOPS of agepe chtau..:d lice, birtch. Eatisund iAcln oen ccoLvl(t r aia ra c ua AIce.a cc Safe Watr (ner_t of noolanlon) - nncal. urban, and rual- Aolo oet noelvli ha noelo ec hc ia Nurbeofpol fto rban, and rural) wIth reasonbl acest ef uritionaly unvu diet pIo r-srtial nov-Turd roquireme.. iu not waerapply(icue tre ted rfac wucera oru tretd hut -nrctastno-d afrorduble. nateruoubaathat Orta prtecte b-reboles aprings, and a..nitrytello.) at otloatd Reliatv Pf.. trn Icrc nel(l errycl ubnan uu p-rc-nngen of theirreprtc poplatiana. Inaoulban,reapnblIctr ouieyoet or ee incn-third o vrg pe H ita fo...toin or atandpot boateLd no mere than 200-c mtrs from h.... map ha p-ro-l inrone vf the octy 1-clee in deriv-d fron the .rur1 c--idor-d as nig within r...utnubln acsof that h.una. In rural aro-lengft- canabracn nol mly oth- thehosotar nebro of. the hou..ehold lee itdut.ntn for high-r ccs of lvif t rOn ren Ac ct aneto pen a nroprtont part of the dap in fthn t BtoardPultcSincalutO tttoonLel(rerat .- urban.. fonlc' waro neda. od uro -4 Perr1 oi ofpyino (nu ncrd)tuae u1lepo" dccen tt.tore d lavAl (I"P cto i ooloocn- let uran ind h . ~l P - fPPIt-- diup'nI an psoene ofIohirraprierpulatioIa . tIcrooc Alib icconc u.. d 1ot1.taIco preel coy.. inciudo the -1 cc rint and dinPus.. cith or uit h-treac-to, T Aco .c hoalyin codiPoorctlo Departont of bunco .o.rrt and -ac-o-n- by -er-hbrne nyst- or the one of .yi,18 IIo v _cindov inimllar cnalo  TANZAN1A Page 4 of 6 Eoeneuli D-oeelpnt DsaL Sheet Actual Provisional Pro 'eted Av-rug % Anneal1 G-tnh Reins Shaeo 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1979 1979 1980 1995 1990 1972-77 1977-95 1985-90 GDP A. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (Millen Us $ at 1977 Prices) 1. CDP 2773.9 2662.2 3004.7 3119.4 3364.1 3542.4 3734.1 3890.2 4069.7 5105.8 6502.3 5.0 4.7 4.9 100.0 2. GaIns from Teens ef Trade (TT) -161.0 -207.5 -348.9 -345.7 -69.9 -116.1 -135.2 -174 5 -223.4 251.8 -.7