Niger - Livestock Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 2169-NIR NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT February 28, 1979 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit CFA franc (CFAF) US$1.00 : CFAF 220 CFAF 1,000 US$4.55 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 kilometer (km) 0.62 miles 1 square 2 kilometer (km ) : 0.39 square miles 1 hectare (ha) : 2.47 acres 1 kilogram (kg) 2.20 pounds 1 metric ton : 0.98 tons ABBREVIATIONS APMU Bank Agricultural Projects Management Recruitment Unit CNCA Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole (National Agricultural Credit Bank) OFEDES Office des Eaux du Sous-sol (Groundwater Development Agency) OPVN Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (National Food Marketing Agency) PMU Project Management Unit PY Project Year RMWA Bank Regional Mission for West Africa UNCC Union Nigerienne de Cooperation et de Credit (National Cooperative and Credit Organization) USAID United States Agency for International Development FISCAL YEAR Government and Project: October 1 - September 30 IDA July 1 - June 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. BACKGROUND ............................................ 1 A. Project Background ................................. 1 B. The Rural Sector ................1................ 1 C. The Livestock Subsector ............................ 2 D. Livestock Subsector Strategy and Issues ............ 4 II. THE PROJECT AREA ...................................... 5 A. Physical Features ......5......................... 5 B. Population and Facilities .......................... 6 III. THE PROJECT ........................................... 7 A. Objectives and Summary Description ................. 7 B. Detailed Features .................................. 8 C. Cost Estimates ..................................... 15 D. Proposed Financing ........... ............ ....... 15 E. Procurement and Disbursement ....................... 17 F. Accounts and Audit ................................. 19 IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ............................ 19 A. Project Management Unit ............................ 19 B. Staffing ........................................... 21 C. Training ........................................ 23 D. Monitoring and Evaluation .......................... 24 V. PRODUCTION, MARKETS AND PRICES, AND FINANCIAL RESULTS ... 24 A. Production ......................................... 24 B. Markets and Prices .............................. 26 C. Producer Incomes ................................... 28 D. Financial Implications for Government .............. 29 VI. ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION ..................... 30 A. Project Benefits ................................... 30 B. Economic Analysis ............................... 30 VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ................... 33 This report is based on th findings of a Bank mission which visited Niger in April/May 1978, comprisin, Messrs. D. Steeds and F. Leduc (Bank) and Messrs. R. Biscaldi, M. Horowitz and G. Tacher (Consultants). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their omcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page No. ANNEXES 1. Responsibilities and Qualifications of Key Personnel 36 2. Supporting Tables (listed below) 40 3. Related Documents and Data Available in the Project File 47 LISTS OF TABLES IN THE MAIN TEXT 3.1 Main Project Inputs 14 3.2 Summary Project Costs 16 4.1 Project Staffing 22 5.1 Livestock Technical Coefficients 25 5.2 Livestock Production 27 6.1 Economic Costs and Benefits 32 LIST OF SUPPORTING TABLES AND CHARTS TABLES 1. Project Costs by Year 40 2. Project Financing Details 41 3. IDA Disbursement Categories and Schedule 42 4. Pastoral Center Beneficiaries Cash Flow 43 5. Breeding Loan Recipients Cash Flow 44 6. Backgrounding and Fattening Loan Recipients Returns 45 7. Government Cash Flow 46 CHARTS IBRD No. 19078 Implementation Schedule 48 IBRD No. 19077 Organization and Management 49 LIST OF MAPS IBRD No. 13722 Location of Project Activities NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT I. BACKGROUND A. Project Background 1.01 The project was identified in November 1976 by RMWA, prepared by consultants in early 1977, and pre-appraised in January 1978. Further prepa- ration was undertaken in March 1978 by Government's Livestock Department, assisted by a RMWA staff member. Discussions with Government on a possible livestock project began as early as 1969 and various project concepts were explored and rejected. The proposed project focuses on smallholder livestock producers. It would consist--in the semi-arid pastoral zone--of an innovative approach to provision of a package of services to pastoralists and--in the cropping zone--of a series of specific livestock-related actions. B. The Rural Sector 1.02 Niger has a population of about 5 million of Yhom over 4 million live in rural areas. The country covers 1.3 million km , of which 75% is desertic, 15% semi-arid, and less than 10% suitable for crop production and even this is of very low potential. About half the people live between the southern border with Nigeria, where annual rainfa 1 is 700-800 mm, and the 500 mm isohyet. In this area of about 100,000 km , the main crops are cereals, groundnuts, cowpeas and some cotton. Further north, as rainfall declines and becomes even more variable, rainfed cropping becomes increasingly precarious and livestock production increasingly important. 1.03 In 1970, the rural sector accounted for about 60% of GDP and 80% of exports. Now, the sector accounts for about 40% of GDP and 30% of exports. This dramatic change reflects the rapid rise in uranium production but also poor performance in the rural sector. Recent crop production has been dis- appointing, particularly groundnuts for which production has declined, due to low producer prices and disease, from over 200,000 tons to less than 50,000 tons and exports have virtually ceased; although farmers have switched into grains and cowpeas, crops now account for less than 30% of GDP and 10% of exports. Livestock production was disrupted by the 1973 drought which according to Government estimates reduced the national herd from 4.2 million cattle to 2.2 million and from 9 million smallstock to 7 million. Although herd reconstitution has begun, pre-drought cattle numbers cannot be reached for another decade. Increases in prices of livestock products have, however, largely offset the reduced volume of production; livestock now accounts for 12% of GDP and 20% of exports. - 2 - C. The Livestock Subsector 1.04 Productivity and Output: The cattle health situation is broadly under control and there have been no significant losses from contagious dis- eases for many years. Emphasis is given to strict prophylactic measures against rinderpest, which is disappearing, and contagious bovine pleuropneu- monia, which is a threat in the east and the west of the country. Recently, efforts have been initiated to promote calf drenching against internal para- sites. For the cattle herd, pre-drought survey results revealed modest produc- tivity levels, with a calving rate of 60% and a first year mortality rate of 35%. Although no post-drought surveys have been undertaken, there has been no significant change in livestock inputs or management methods and produc- tivity has probably remained unchanged; the cattle offtake rate is about 11%. For smallstock and camels, the animal health situation is less well controlled but also less clearly understood; vaccines against anthrax in smallstock and camels have only recently been made available. Recently, too, efforts have been initiated to promote drenching of smallstock against internal parasites. Very little is known about productivity of smallstock and camels; by inference from surveys undertaken in neighboring countries, the offtake rate is about 25% for sheep, 35% for goats, and 9% for camels. Total meat output is cur- rently about 70,000 tons per year worth about CFAF 25 billion (US$110 million). 1.05 Production Systems and Income: Apart from a few state ranches and some smallholder fattening in the south of the country, livestock is raised by traditional means. Although there are both nomads and wholly-sedentarized livestock producers, traditional animal husbandry is mainly a transhumant activity, whereby herds are moved north behind the rains and south in the dry season. For about eight months a year herds are watered from wells which, until about 20 years ago, were privately constructed and owned, generally by groups of pastoralists but also by individuals where water was at shallow depth. Over the last two decades, however, Government has constructed modern, concrete-lined wells and some diesel-powered tubewells that are open to all-comers. Over 90% of the cattle are managed but not necessarily owned by the Tuareg and Fulani people, who each make up about 10% of the Nigerien population. The extent to which management and ownership are separated is not known but it is common and has increased as a consequence of the drought; there has, however, been no discernible decline in demand for vaccinations. 1.06 The integration of livestock and crop farming is still very limited. One widespread but modest link is obtained through contracts between pasto- ralists and sedentary farmers whereby animals grazing crop residues fertilize the fields. A more substantial link is beginning to be practised in the south of the country; crop residues are harvested and stored for feeding to horses, sheep and goats kept in farmers' compounds. Very recently, cattle fattening has been started. Animal traction is little used, except for the drawing of water, but there is growing demand for work oxen and carts and, to a lesser extent, implements for cultivation. - 3 - 1.07 The impact of the drought varied considerably, depending mainly on the degree of mobility of livestock producers. In 1974, it was estimated that about 75,000 families had lost most if not all their animals. An unknown number of these people have emigrated but there is some evidence to suggest that such migrations are temporary if not seasonal rather than permanent. Any estimation of an average income from livestock necessarily disguises a wide range of income; and little is known about the dispersion of income about the average. Nonetheless for an average pastoral family of 7 people, owning 20 cattle and 50 smallstock, the annual income from livestock in 1978 would be about CFAF 150,000 (US$680), plus milk worth about CFAF 60,000 (US$270). Additional income from cropping, fishing and commerce varies considerably. 1.08 Marketing: Animals are marketed through a traditional private system in which pastoralists sell stock either directly or through professional col- lection agents to large traders. Main markets have no facilities for cattle handling or veterinary control. Apart from export of about 500 tons per year of chilled meat, animals are moved on the hoof to both domestic and foreign, mainly Nigerian, consumption centers. Over half the cattle offtake but less than 10% of the smallstock offtake is exported. Processing: Abattoirs in- clude a modern refrigerated facility at Niamey with a capacity of 120 cattle per day or about 5,000 tons per year; throughput is about 80% of capacity. New abattoirs are being built at Zinder, Maradi, Tahoua and Arlit; elsewhere, there is a good network of slaughter slabs. There is one tannery at Maradi with a capacity of about 800,000 skins per year; throughput is about 60% of capacity. Taxation: Government has attempted to collect livestock taxes by means of head taxes, export duties and licence fees. Livestock head taxes were abolished in 1973 and total annual tax revenue is now about CFAF 200 million (US$0.9 million) or less than 1% of Government revenue. In early 1978, Government abolished the head tax payable by all adult citizens; now, livestock producers pay no taxes to central Government, and livestock vaccinations are free of charge. Farmers, too, pay no taxes to central Government but they have access to subsidized crop inputs as well as better access than pastoral- ists to public health and education facilities. Throughout the country, public wells are constructed free of charge, except that the beneficiary community sometimes furnishes the unskilled labor required. 1.09 Services and Institutions: The Livestock Department of the Ministry of Rural Development has about 300 technical staff, including 15 veterinarians. Its main responsibility is animal health for which it undertakes annual vacci- nation campaigns against rinderpest and pleuropneumonia, specific campaigns against other diseases where outbreaks occur and, at veterinary posts, it pro- vides curative treatment services. Government budgetary allocations to the Livestock Department in 1978 amount to CFAF 400 million (US$1.8 million), with 70% for staff. The provision of animal husbandry advice has received little attention until recently; efforts are now being made to promote use of feed supplements and drugs against internal parasites. A Herd Reconstitution Service was created in 1976 to be responsible for loans to destitute pastoral- ists and management of state breeding ranches. Other institutions active in the livestock subsector include: the Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole (CNCA) which finances credit for cattle fattening and animal traction; the Union Nigerienne de Cooperation et de Credit (UNCC) which promotes the forma- tion of cooperatives in the cropping zon qnd assures input supply ani primary crop marketing; the National Livestock Company, a para-statal body which manages a ranch and participates in cattle marketing in the west of the country. Rural water supply is the responsibility of the Office des Eaux du Sous-sol (OFEDES), a Government agency with financial autonomy, which con- structs and maintains stock watering points throughout the country. OFEDES is a well-managed organization, with a network of regional bases that are working effectively. Other services to the subsector include vaccine production, disease diagnostics and livestock research, all undertaken by the livestock section of the National Agricultural Research Institute. Technical training takes place at (a) the Livestock Assistants and Agents School in Niamey, which produced 16 three-year Assistants and 19 two-year Agents in 1978; (b) the Agri- cultural Technical College in Niamey, which graduated two livestock technical officers in 1978 and will produce six per year thereafter, and (c) foreign universities for advanced studies - in 1977, 27 Nigeriens were abroad studying veterinary science. Training programs still put emphasis on animal health rather than animal production. On the other hand, the recently-revised curriculum of the Rural Development Institute at Kolo includes some courses in animal production. D. Livestock Subsector Strategy and Issues 1.10 Government's main objectives for the livestock subsector are, first, herd and flock reconstitution, second, increased animal productivity to gener- ate exports at the pre-drought volume and, third, management of the semi-arid pastoral zone so as to preserve its ecological balance. No corresponding strategy has been developed with the result that a variety of projects using different approaches has been designed, including state ranches, state breeding centers, and provision of services to pastoralists. While not incompatible, these approaches all require staff knowledgeable about animal and pastoral production, yet such staff are scarce. Staff allocation and training policies are therefore critical, for they will determine the pace at which different approaches can be pursued. 1.11 Government's approach for services to pastoralists was, until recently, limited to provision of vaccinations and stock watering points. These measures were and remain necessary but have had undesirable side effects. In particular, they induced rapid herd growth resulting in high stocking rates and over-grazing particularly around public wells which, in turn, caused high cattle losses during the drought. Now, Government recognizes these deficien- cies and considers that, through the recognition of associations of pasto- ralists, it should be possible to (a) allocate stock watering points and there- by pasture to specific associations and (b) emphasize improved animal husbandry rather than herd growth as a means to increase output. Government's current approach for the provision of services to pastoralists is, therefore, a blend of its earlier approach and the newly-recognized need to increase animal and pastoral productivity through increased pastoralists' participation. There - 5 - are, however, different perceptions within Government of the difficulty and purpose - ranging from politico-administrative to productive - of obtaining pastoralists' participation; but some differences are to be expected, since the approach is innovative and little is known about the behavior of pasto- ral people. Project execution will therefore entail much learning by doing and project management as well as Government will have to be both flexible and patient. 1.12 The physical production potential of the semi-arid pastoral zone is not great but, in the aftermath of the drought, it is not being fully exploited. There are, now, opportunities to accelerate the growth of cattle numbers, to improve livestock productivity, and to increase the physical potential through better management of natural resources. In the cropping zone, by contrast, there is now little scope to increase herd numbers but there are opportunities to increase livestock productivity. The proposed project provides the means to take advantage of each zone's opportunities. In the long term, the livestock industry can be expected to become increasingly specialized by zone: breeding in the semi-arid pastoral zone, backgrounding 1/ in the intermediate cereals zone, and fattening in the southern mixed cropping zone. Previous Bank Group Involvement 1.13 Whereas this would be the Bank's first livestock project, livestock components are being financed under two ongoing projects. Under the Drought Relief Project (CR 441-NIR), the Bank has financed construction of two state- run calf feeding lots, as part of the national herd reconstitution program. Under the Maradi Agricultural Development Project (CR 608-NIR) which is progressing satisfactorily, the Bank is financing vaccinations, drugs, credit for redistribution of animals to destitute pastoralists, and preparation of a livestock project, namely the project now proposed. The Bank is also con- sidering a livestock component under the Dosso Agricultural Development Project which was appraised in December 1978. II. THE PROJECT AREA A. Physical Features 2.01 The proiect area would includ the three provinces (s e Map) of Maradi (39,000 km ), Zinder (145,000 km ) and Diffa (140,000 km ). Covering the whole of the south-east of the country, the project area would extend about 800 km east-west and about 400 km north-south. The north-eastern part of the project area has a saharan climate with annual rainfall of less than 200 mm. Between the 200 mm and 350 mm isohyets the area is essentially pastoral; the legally-defined Pastoral Zone closely follows these isohyets. 1/ Purchase of 12-18 month cattle, growing them out over 18-24 months, and sale to fatteners. - 6 - Further south, the cropping zone can be divided into an intermediate agro- pastoral zone bounded by the 350 mm and 500 mm isohyets, and a mixed ropping zone, where rainfall exceeds 5002mm; the latter covers only 40,000 km in the total project area of 320,000 km . The coefficient of variation of annual rainfall increases from about 20% in the south to over 30% in the north of the project area. Drought is therefore common but the likelihood of a drought of the severity as that of 1973 is low; it was recently estimated at 0.02. 2.02 There are no perennial water courses. Irrigation is possible from the Goulbi Maradi in the south-west of the project area, and from the Koumadougou, which forms the boundary with Nigeria in the south-east, but the combined potential is only a few thousand hectares. Intra-annual fluc- tuations in the level of Lake Chad permit flood recession cultivation, but in competition with pastoralists seeking dry season grazing. Groundwater availability is well known except in parts of the intermediate zone; the depth to groundwater is generally 50-60 m except in the south-east of the project area where water is found at less than 30 m. B. Population and Facilities 2.03 The human population of the project area is about 2 million of whom about 1.6 million are sedentary crop farming people, mainly Hausa; the remainder, mainly Fulani and Tuareg people, are primarily if not exclusively pastoralists. The livestock population of the project area is about 1.3 mil- lion cattle, 4.3 million smallstock and 0.1 million camels, in each case about 50% of the national herds. 2.04 The two towns of importance, Maradi and Zinder, each have about 50,000 inhabitants. There are 14 other administrative centers in the project area, each with a population of a few thousand. A paved road links Niamey to Zinder and Goure to Lake Chad; construction will soon begin on the 180 km stretch between Zinder and Goure. Maradi and Zinder are both less than 300 km from Kano in Northern Nigeria, to which they are both linked by paved roads. In much of the south of the project area, the medium of exchange is the Nigerian Naira, traded at about half the official rate of CFAF 380 per Naira. The rural road network in the cropping zone of the project area is well developed; by contrast, the tracks in the pastoral zone require four-wheel drive vehicles. Primary schools, adult functional literacy programs, medical dispensaries, village health worker training programs, and cooperatives are concentrated in the souther2 cropping zone; in this area, population density typically exceeds 25 per km . Further north, production techniques are necessarily more extensive, the human population less dense and more mobile and it is accordingly more difficult and expensive to provide services; and, until recently, not much thought was given to providing such services. - 7 - III. THE PROJECT A. Objectives and Summary Description 3.01 The main objectives are (a) to increase incomes through increased livestock productivity both in the pastoral and cropping zones, (b) to obtain pastoralists' participation in efforts to improve management of their animal, water and pasture resources, (c) to broaden the field of competence of the Livestock Department from provision of animal health services to provision of animal and pastoral productivity services, and (d) to increase and improve cattle and sheep fattening by smallholders in the cropping zone. 3.02 The project, to be implemented over five years, would include: (a) delivery of drugs and feed supplements, and new vaccines that are not at present readily available, throughout the project area; (b) delineation of pastoral units based on traditional land- use patterns, formation and recognition of associations of pastoralists, and construction and operation of five pastoral centers which would each serve several associations of pastoralists; (c) provision of a package of services to associations of pastoralists, including animal health, supplies and advice on animal husbandry and range management tech- niques, and selective extension of stock watering points; in the five pastoral centers the services would also include human health and food stocks; (d) credit, to be operated through associations of pastoralists, for backgrounding of immature steers and, for destitute pastoralists, for constituting breeding herds; (e) extension of the existing animal health and marketing infra- structure by (i) construction of 11 veterinary posts and 20 vaccination yards; (ii) improvements to two main, six sec- ondary and 13 small markets; (iii) construction of two small abattoirs, (iv) marking out of seven stock routes; and (v) rehabilitation of slaughter slabs; (f) credit for, and advice on, cattle and sheep fattening by smallholders; (g) vehicles and equipment, some additional staff, and new offices at Diffa, for the Livestock Department; (h) staff and buildings for a project management unit, which would also be responsible for preparation of a follow-up project. - 8 - The project is envisaged as the first phase of a continuing program of live- stock development. Depending on the results obtained under the proposed project, a follow-up project would provide financing for more pastoral service centers and more backgrounding, breeding -1i fazceing c-Luits; in addition, the organizational framework will have been set up to permit more specific range management activities. B. Detailed Features Vaccines, Drugs and Feed Supplements 3.03 Vaccinations against the major cattle diseases have been undertaken for over 20 years and, though still necessary, are by now routine and do not constitute a project activity. By contrast, drugs and feed supplements have only recently begun to be made available. The effectiveness of vaccination campaigns could nonetheless be improved by modernizing and assuring sound maintenance of cooling equipment, and the project would provide for this. Their effectiveness could also be improved by better communication between pastoralists and Livestock Department staff whereby misunderstandings about the perceived needs for, and risks of, vaccinations could be overcome. This would be facilitated by the undertaking early in PY1 of an inventory of vernacular concepts of animal health, diseases and cures, which would also provide a framework for the promotion of drugs. The inventory would seek out, in particular, where the traditional Touareg and Fulani classifications differ from those of modern French veterinary medicine, and from each other; then, and based on the success of unpaid village human health workers in Niger, the project would train local animal health workers, who would also be unpaid ex- cept for an adequate sales commission. These paraveterinary workers, equipped with a medical kit to be replenished through sales revenue, would provide a front-line first aid, health and referral service, and a two-way information channel between ,pastoralists and Livestock Department staff. The main drugs and feed supplements to be sold--both by paraveterinary workers and by Live- stock Department staff--would be (a) smallstock drenches, (b) calf drenches, (c) smallstock dewormers against tape worms and liver fluke, (d) trypanocides for camels, (e) calf supplement for the end of the dry season, (f) mineral supplement for young stock and cows, ewes and she-goats, and (g) vitamin supplement for young stock and breeding stock for use at the end of the dry season. 3.04 Currently, the annual cattle vaccination campaign :Lasts four months whereupon staff, and particularly vehicles and equipment, are relatively under- utilized. By working to promote drugs and feed supplements, the project would make use of this spare capacity though additional investments would also be required. Given the ensuing practical problem of distinguishing project from non-project activities of the Livestock Department, it was agreed at nego- tiations that all expenditures for existing staff and vaccines against contagious cattle diseases would be excluded from the project, but that all expenditures for purchases of new vehicles and equipment, and operating costs for both existing and new vehicles and equipment would be included. While Government can be expected to continue to pay all existing staff, and to acquire finance for vaccines, an assurance was nonetheless obtained at - 9 - negotiations that Government would make explicit budgetary provision for purchase of vaccines against contagious cattle diseases throughout the project area for the duration of the project. The project would, on the other hand, include provision of vaccines against anthrax in smallstock and camels, and against smallstock plague. In addition, field tests now being undertaken in Chad and financed by Credit 783-CD are soon expected to identify a reliable combined vaccine against smallstock plague and para-influenza. If those tests are successful, the proposed project would include large-scale tests of such vaccines, to be undertaken with the assistance of three man-months of consult- ant services. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that such tests would be subject to IDA approval. A further assurance was obtained that drugs (para. 3.03) and feed supplements would be sold, throughout the project area for the duration of the project, at prices sufficient to cover costs of purchase, delivery and final distribution, and that proceeds from such sales would be put into a revolving fund. Pastoral Units, Associations and Centers 3.05 A pastoral unit is a geographic area that is traditionally exploited by a socially homogeneous group or by socially diverse yet clustered groups. The project would identify such pastoral units and then build on their tradi- tional social structures through the constitution of formal associations of pastoralists. Identification would entail allocation of dry season and wet season grazing grounds and transhumance corridors, as well as some areas com- mon to several pastoral units in the extreme north and south. The identifica- tion method has been tested in Chad under Credit 309-CD, and was successfully used in Niger in August-September 1978 with financing from the Project Pre- paration Facility. The identification team would work closely with represen- tatives of government technical departments and traditional local authorities, and would prepare an official minute and map of its work. Following each year's pastoral unit identification work, through PY3, discussions would be held with pastoralists with a view to forming an association, to which eligi- bility for membership would be determined by the respective social group on the advice of project management. Official recognition would be given to associations of pastoralists and their rights and obligations would be speci- fied by law. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the appropriate legal instruments would be issued by December 31, 1979, that they would include allocation of exclusive rights to existing and any new watering points to each association in its area, that they would also include a model charter for an association of pastoralists, and that that charter would be subject to consultation with IDA. In addition, Government prepared a first draft of the charter which was discussed at negotiations. The project would provide for the construction and operation of five pastoral centers, each of which would serve several associations of pastoralists. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that the final design and site selection of each center would be subject to IDA approval. Service Package to Pastoralists 3.06 All livestock producers would receive a more effective vaccination service and better access to drugs and feed supplements. Those who are mem- bers of associations of pastoralists would receive a broader package of - 10 - services, including: (a) priority for supply of drugs and feed supplements, (b) treatments against worms and ticks, (c) materials for castration, (d) ac- cess to two new forms of credit (para 3.07), (e) improvements to existing wells and selective extension of stock watering points where warranted by land-use patterns and carrying capacity, and (f) advice on range management measures such as creation of grazing reserves, limitation of tree pruning and bush fires, and the trade-off between productivity and herd numbers. First priority for delivery of these services would be given to members of asso- ciations within the sphere of influence, about 30 km radius, of pastoral centers. In addition to animal health and productivity services to be pro- vided from newly constructed and equipped livestock posts, the pastoral centers would also provide human health services and food stock. In each center, a small human health dispensary would be constructed, equipped and operated from which unpaid paramedical workers, to be trained in existing facilities, would be supervised and their medical kits replenished. Such training and kits have been supplied since 1965 in Niger, but the action has been concentrated in the cropping zone. A small warehouse would also be con- structed in each center, for the storage of grain for human consumption and other basic foodstuffs for sales during the late dry season. For human health supplies and food stocks, sales proceeds would be used to set up revolving funds for further acquisition of such supplies and stocks, and an assurance in this respect was obtained at negotiations. The project would provide for up to 30 new pastoral wells where warranted by land-use patterns and carrying capacity; an assurance was obtained at negotiations that the project would provide new wells only where an association of pastoralists had been consti- tuted in an identified pastoral unit with sufficient grazing resources, and that association had undertaken to provide all unskilled labor, in kind or in cash, required for the well-digging. The latter condition would entail about 20 man-uLpnths labor contribution equivalent to about 5% of the cost of a new well. Credit Through Associations of Pastoralists 3.07 An existing herd reconstitution credit scheme provides loans to pur- chase cattle for pastoralists and sedentary livestock producers who lost all their animals during the 1973 drought. In an attempt to maximize the number of beneficiaries, most loans have been for one animal only instead of a nucleus breeding herd. Loans are made interest-free and, for cattle loans, are repay- able in four equal instalments beginning at the end of the fourth year. For the first repayments due in 1978, performance varied widely between local dis- tricts but was generally poor. The project would support a new kind of herd reconstitution credit, by financing the constitution of 110 breeding herds of, for instance, five females together with ten immature males; loans would be repayable over six years, after one year's grace. Depending on the benefici- aries' preferences, loans would also be made for camel and smallstock breeding. Recipients would be selected, on the basis of their destitution and livestock expertise, by project management from nominations submitted by associations of pastoralists. In view of the destitution of credit recipients, and the long gestation period before herd growth provides adequate cash income for a family, these loans would be interest-free. Credit to individual pastoralists would, however, not be given without a guarantee from the respective association of pastoralists; this would include a 10% cash deposit and a written commitment - 11 - to cover all defaults. The project would also support a second new kind of credit, for the purchase of 1,000 immature cattle for backgrounding, or growing-out on natural range, before resale for fattening. These loans, also to be guaranteed against default by the respective associations, would not exceed 80% of the purchase price, and would be repaid on resale of the animals after about 18 months. Individual loans would be for a maximum of 10 and an average of five immature cattle. Interest would be charged, as for the exist- ing cattle fattening credit program, at 9.5% per year plus a premium (presently 1.5%) for a mortality guarantee fund. With negligible actual mortality, the effective nominal rate would be 11% per year. Since average annual inflation over the period 1975-77 was 8.5%, and though it may be somewhat higher over the next three years, the real interest rate would be positive. Assurances in respect of all credit policies and procedures were obtained at negotiations. The modest scale of both breeding and backgrounding credits, which would con- stitute 3% and 1% of project costs respectively, is due to their innovative nature, their dependence on guarantees to be provided by associations of pastoralists that are yet to be constituted, as well as the potential diffi- culty of finding appropriate animals. Livestock Department and Marketing Infrastructure 3.08 In order to provide better supervision of vaccination campaigns and better access to drugs and curative services, the project would strengthen the facilities of the Livestock Department in the cropping zone. Although ownership and management are frequently separated (para 1.05), further infra- structure is warranted and the project would provide 11 veterinary posts, 20 vaccination yards and new Livestock Department offices at Diffa. Apart from the network of slaughter slabs and the four new municipal abattoirs (para 1.08), there have been no investments in marketing infrastructure. In order to ensure better animal health control at markets and more hygienic slaughter facilities in small centers, the project would provide for the construction of two main, six secondary and 13 small markets, two slaughter sheds, and for the rehabilitation of slaughter slabs. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that final designs for the two main markets, at Zinder and Maradi, would be subject to IDA approval. The project would, in addition, provide for the marking out of seven stock routes between main markets and the Nigerian frontier, to be equipped with wells every 25 km. Compensation, if any, payable to farmers would be financed by Government. Credit for Cattle and Sheep Fattening 3.09 An existing credit scheme in the south of Zinder Province provides loans for cattle fattening, with interest charged at 9.5% for 12 months plus a premium (presently 1.5%) for a mortality guarantee fund. Credit is provided by the CNCA using rediscount facilities from the Central Bank. Individual loan applications are submitted through Village Solidarity Groups, a form of precooperative, to the local UNCC agent who, together with the local Livestock Department representative and the district sub-Governor, constitute a loan approval committee. Final approval nonetheless rests with CNCA headquarters in Niamey. The loan recipient does not receive cash; instead, he selects his animal, negotiates the price and the local UNCC agent pays the seller directly. The system, though cumbersome, is working well; in 1976/77, loans were made for 2,000 cattle and repayments were 97%. There is, however, much - 12 - scope for improvement in the feeding and care of fattening stock. Through the project, the existing scheme would be extended to Maradi Province, to provide for the acquisition of 2,500 cattle for fattening per year by PY5, and to finance staff who would work exclusively on improving catLie rattening perform- ance. They would focus on efficient storage and feeding of cotton seed, bran and legume hay, as well as basic veterinary measures. The existing credit procedures would be followed except, and an assurance was obtained at nego- tiations, that loan recipients would be charged interest for the exact period for which the loan was outstanding instead of a fixed twelve-month period as at present. In contrast to cattle, there is no existing credit scheme for sheep fattening, yet because of the lower unit value it is a relatively well established activity, usually managed by women. There is nonetheless scope for expansion through short-term credit, provided women are permitted access to credit. The project would therefore, beginning in Maradi Province, consti- tute women's sub-groups within Village Solidarity Groups to whom credit for sheep fattening, 3,500 loans per year by PY5, would be made available fol- lowing the same procedures and with the same assurance as indicated for cattle fattening. Follow-Up Project Preparation 3.10 A follow-up project would be prepared before the end of PY4, to be based on: experience acquired with the innovative aspects of this project; the results of monitoring (para 4.11) of animal health and productivity activities; results obtained in other livestock projects; and specific studies to be undertaken. These studies would include, first, the identification of health and productivity measures to be undertaken for camels. Ideas would emerge from the far greater communication between pastoralists and staff envisaged under this project, as well as feedback from the trained paraveteri- nary workers; the incidence of infectious and parasitic diseases would be examined through regular serum and faeces sampling. Consultants would be re- cruited, for a total of six man-months, to help carry out this study, which would be undertaken over a three-year period beginning in PY1. Second, a study would be undertaken to identify improvements to be made in manual and animal water extraction. Through regular, quarterly observations of selected traditional and concrete-lined wells over three-day periods, the study would assess the utility of cement curbstones, sluices to watering troughs, cement or plastic bases, and better pulleys, cords and containers. Consultants would also be recruited, for a total of four man-months, to help carry out this study to be undertaken over two years beginning in PY2. Third, a study would be undertaken of the production, marketing and potential markets for quilichi, a form of spiced sun-dried mutton, which is produced in many parts of the project area. This one-year study, in which consultants would participate for two man-months, would be undertaken in PY3. Final follow-up project preparation would be undertaken by project management assisted by six man-months of con- sultant services. Implementation Schedule 3.11 Volumes of main inputs are shown at Table 3.1 and the phasing of the main project activities is illustrated at Chart No. 19078. Pre-project - 13 - activities include the pastoral unit identification test undertaken in August 1978 and preparation of the ethnoveterinary inventory by the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section, who has been identified. The pace of identi- fication of pastoral units and constitution of associations of pastoralists cannot be forecast with much certainty; yet these are prerequisites for con- struction of pastoral centers and stock watering points, as well as inception of the two new kinds of credit. The project would therefore give priority to those prerequisites in PY1, including the launching of appropriate training for staff and livestock producers. Training would continue for the duration of the project. - 14 - Table 3.1 MAIN PROJECT INPUTS Uhit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Civil Works Pastoral Centers No. 1 1 1 2 - 5 Pastoral Wells No. 6 6 6 12 - 30 Veterinary Posts No. 3 4 4 - - 11 Market Impiovements No. - 10 11 - - 21 Slaughter 'heds No. - 2 - - - 2 Stock Routes No. - 7 - - - 7 Vehicles and Equipment Four wheel drive vehicles No. 13 8 1 15 8 45 Light vehicles No. 12 1 - 12 1 26 Trucks No. - 1 3 - - 4 Ice-making machines No. 3 - - - - 3 Radio Tran;ceivers No. 2 1 4 2 - 9 Input Supplies Incremental Drugs Smallst3ck drenches 1/ '000 12 44 89 148 207 530 Calf drenches '000 14 15 32 34 36 131 Smallstock deworming 2/ '000 2 4 10 12 12 40 Incremental Feed Calf supplement tons 17 20 19 24 10 90 Mineral supplement tons 67 100 131 175 187 660 Vitamin supplement '000 29 36 52 72 41 230 Annual New Vaccinations Smallstock anthrax '000 528 536 548 550 554 2,716 Camel anthrax '000 12 12 12 12 12 60 Smallstock plague '000 792 804 821 826 830 4,074 Loans Breeding No. - 10 20 30 50 110 Backgrounding No. - - 20 40 140 200 Cattle Fattening No. 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 7,500 Sheep Fattening No. - 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 8,000 1/ Round worms. 2/ Tape worms and liver fluke. - 15 - C. Cost Estimates 3.12 Total project costs for the five-year disbursement period beginning October 1979 are estimated at CFAF 3.3 billion (US$15 million), with a foreign exchange component of 52%. Costs exclude direct taxes and duties, as envis- aged by Government. Base cost estimates reflect May 1979 prices, expected date of effectiveness. Physical contingencies include 20% for civil works in the pastoral zone, 10% for civil works in the cropping zone and for all operating costs and new vaccines in both zones, but no provision for vehicles and equipment, and staff, for which specifications and quantities are clearly established. Expected price increases are compounded at the following annual rates for both local and foreign costs; civil works: 7.5% to end-1979, 7% thereafter; all other items: 6.5% to end-1979, 6% thereafter. Total expected price increases amount to 15% of total project costs. Costs are detailed at Annex 2, Table 1 and summarized at Table 3.2. D. Proposed Financing 3.13 It is proposed that an IDA credit of US$12 million (CFAF 2.64 bil- lion) be made to Government on standard terms to finance 80% of total project costs. The credit would cover 100% of foreign exchange costs estimated at US$7.9 million (CFAF 1.73 billion) and 58% of local costs estimated at US$4.1 million (CFAF 0.91 billion). Government would contribute US$1.5 million (CFAF 333 million), or 10% of project costs, which would cover 35% of incre- mental local staff salaries and operating costs. The CNCA would contribute US$1.0 million (CFAF 214 million), or 6.5% of project costs, which would cover all loans for cattle and sheep fattening. Beneficiaries would contribute US$0.5 million (CFAF 113 million), or 3.5% of project costs, covering part of the costs of pastoral wells, drug and feed supplement distribution, acquisi- tion of immature males for backgrounding, and all incremental inputs for cattle and sheep fattening. In addition, Government would continue to finance the costs of local Livestock Department staff working in the project area, about CFAF 70 million (US$0.3 million) per year, and would also finance the cost of vaccines against contagious cattle diseases, about CFAF 20 million (US$0.1 million) per year, but these are not included in project costs. The financing plan is detailed at Annex 2, Table 2, and summarized on page 17: - 16 - Table 3.2 SUMMARY PROJECT COSTS Share of Foreign Project Total Ex- Component Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost change ----(CFAF million)--- -----(US$ '000)------ (%) (%) Pastoral Zone Extension and Inputs 74 131 205 336 596 932 6 64 Pastoral centers 237 314 551 1,078 1,429 2,507 17 57 Credit 105 - 105 477 - 477 3 0 Subtotal 416 445 861 1,891 2,025 3,916 26 52 Cropping Zone Extension and Inputs 258 386 644 1,170 1,755 2,925 19 60 Marketing Facilities 106 158 264 482 718 1,200 8 60 Credit 256 - 256 1,164 - 1,164 8 0 Subtotal 620 544 1,164 2,816 2 473 5,289 35 47 Management Unit 239 389 628 1,086 1,769 2,855 19 62 Base Cost Estimate 1,275 1,378 2,653 5,793 6,267 12,060 80 52 Physical Contingencies 60 99 159 275 448 723 5 62 Expected Price Increases 234 254 488 1,064 1,153 2,217 15 52 Total Project Cost 1,569 ,731 3,300 7,132 7,868 15,000 100 52 - 17 - Government CNCA Beneficiaries IDA Total ---------------------(US$ '000) --------------------- Pastoral Zone Extension and Inputs 28 - 12 892 932 Pastoral Centers 183 - 40 2,284 2,507 Credit - - 30 447 477 Cropping Zone Extension and Inputs 476 - - 2,449 2,925 Marketing Facilities - - - 1,200 1,200 Credit - 827 337 - 1,164 Management Unit 445 - - 2,410 2,855 Base Cost 1,132 827 419 9,682 12,060 Contingencies 382 145 95 2,318 2,940 Total Project Cost 1,514 972 514 12,000 15,000 Percentage 10 6.5 3.5 80 100 3.14 The project account would be opened at the Development Bank of the Republic of Niger at Zinder. Government would deposit an initial amount of CFAF 150 million (US$0.7 million) into the account and this would be a condi- tion of effectiveness. Government would replenish the account quarterly on the basis of cash forecasts made by the project management unit in order to have sufficient funds to meet project expenditures for the following three months. An assurance in this respect was obtained at negotiations. E. Procurement and Disbursement 3.15 Procurement of civil works with the exception of pastoral wells (estimated cost US$3.3 million), vehicles and equipment (estimated cost US$1.5 million) and inputs with the exception of vaccines (estimated incremental pro- ject cost US$1.2 million and estimated total cost US$3.8 million), would be through international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines in the case of contracts over US$50,000. In the case of contracts of US$50,000 - 18 - or less but more than US$10,000, procurement would be through competitive bidding in accordance with local procedures, which are acceptable to IDA. For contracts of US$10,000 or less, direct competitive purchasing would be employed. Pastoral wells (estimated cost US$1.3 million) would be constructed by OFEDES (para 1.09) under a negotiated contract satisfactory to IDA since there is insufficient competition among local contractors and insufficient interest from foreign firms in dispersed rural works. Vaccines for small stock and camels (estimated cost US$0.3 million) would be procured from the livestock section of the National Agricultural Research Institute, a non- profit body with a proven record of quality products. Animals to be acquired on credit and their feed (estimated incremental cost US$2.0 million) would be procured locally by or with the concurrence of loan recipients. The services of internationally-recruited staff and consultants (estimated cost US$1.3 million) would be obtained following procedures acceptable to IDA. Procure- ment of local staff services (estimated cost US$1.9 million) and operating cost items (estimated cost US$2.3 million) would not be suitable for com- petitive bidding. 3.16 The proceeds of the IDA credit would be disbursed as follows: Category I: Civil Works, 100% of total expenditures with the exception of unskilled labor required for pastoral well construction: US$3.8 million; Category II: Vehicles and Equipment, 100% of total expenditures: US$1.3 million; Category III: Input Supplies, 100% of total expenditures on incre- mental stocks and new vaccines: US$1.3 million; Category IV: Credit, 100% of amounts disbursed on loans for cattle breeding and backgrounding: US$0.45 million; Category V: Expatriate Staff and Consultants, 100% of total expenditures: US$1.07 million; Category VI: Local staff, 65% of total expenditures on incre- mental staff: US$1.0 million; Category VII: Operating Costs, 65% of total expenditures with the exception of final distribution of drugs and feed supplements: US$1.2 million; Category VIII: Refunding of project preparation advance: US$0.08 million. An additional category would provide for an unallocated amount of US$1.8 mil- lion. Estimated quarterly disbursements are at Annex 2, Table 3. Disbursement requests would be fully documented; disbursement for loans, staff and operating costs would, however, be made against certified statements of expenditure, the documentation for which would not be submitted to IDA but retained by the Borrower and made available for inspection by IDA supervision missions and the external auditors. - 19 - F. Accounts and Audit 3.17 The project management unit would set up an accounting system which would reflect, in accordance with consistently maintained and sound practices, a true and fair view of the total project, with the exception of credit for cattle and sheep fattening, which would be funded through CNCA and UNCC established channels rather than through the project account. The accounting system would include records of cash balances, stocks held, fixed assets, credit granted for cattle breeding and backgrounding, and the operating costs of vehicles and equipment. OFEDES would submit certified statements of expenditure in respect of pastoral wells constructed for the project to the Project Manager, who would have the responsibility to check that claims were fully in accord with the terms of the credit. 3.18 The project account would be audited annually; the auditors would also review the proposed accounting system early in PY1. During negotiations, assurances were obtained from Government that: (a) the project account would be audited by independent auditors acceptable to IDA; (b) the report of the independent auditor would be submitted to IDA within six months of the close of each project financial year; and (c) the report of the auditors would be of such scope and in such detail as IDA may reasonably request, including a statement as to whether or not IDA funds had been used for their intended purpose. IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT A. Project Management Unit 4.01 Since the project includes, in the livestock subsector, some pio- neering activities and some extensions to proven activities, as well as activities in other related sectors each with their respective institutions, Government would set up a project management unit (PMU) in the Livestock Department of the Ministry of Rural Development. It would have three levels of responsibility. First, it would be directly responsible for execution of all project activities concerning the identification of pastoral units, constitution of associations of pastoralists, site selection and operation of pastoral centers, site selection of new wells to be constructed for and with the participation of associations of pastoralists, and the granting and recovery of credit for cattle backgrounding and breeding; these activities are located primarily in the pastoral zone. Second, it would procure civil works, equipment and supplies on behalf of the Livestock Department. For these activities, located primarily in the cropping zone, PMU would also be responsible for their increased utilization and effectiveness as well as for introducing improved accounting, maintenance and stock control procedures. Third, PMU would be responsible for the coordinated intervention of different - 20 - agencies in particular activities, primarily of Health and OPVN in operation of pastoral centers and CNCA and UNCC in cattle and sheep fattening credits, but also of OFEDES and Community Development. 4.02 The PMU, to be set up at Zinder, would consist of an Animal Husbandry Section, a Pastoral Activities Section and a Commercial and Administrative Section. PMU would prepare an annual work program and budget for each of the three provinces in the project area, which would be submitted to the respec- tive Provincial Technical Committees. The latter, chaired by the Provincial Governors, are responsible for coordination between government departments but they have no budgetary authority. Power of approval of PMU's annual work program and budget would be vested in the Director of the Livestock Department who would, after obtaining the concurrence of other participating agencies, forward it by July 31 of each year to IDA for approval; an assurance to this effect was obtained at negotiations. The Project Manager would be responsible for introducing, by September 30, 1979, a project reporting system along lines to be indicated by IDA and, by March 31, 1980, a project monitoring system. Assurances to these effects were obtained at negotiations. A further assur- ance was obtained whereby Government would, within six months of the closing date, prepare a project completion report. 4.03 PMU's Animal Husbandry Section would be responsible for disseminating information on and promoting the use of drugs and feed supplements; in partic- ular, it would set up, monitor and revise the paraveterinary worker training program. Though it would have no direct responsibility for vaccination campaigns, it would contribute to their increased effectiveness by ensuring that all equipment was in good working order, for which it would have budgetary authority, and by seeking out means of better communication between Livestock Department staff and pastoralists. For all associations of pastoralists it would be responsible for designing, monitoring and revising the content of range management advice. In the cropping zone, it would be specifically responsible for improving the quality of advice given to cattle fatteners in Maradi Province and for initiating credit and providing sound advice to sheep fatteners. 4.04 PMU's Pastoral Activities Section would be responsible for identify- ing pastoral units, for which a consultant agrostologist would be engaged for three man-months per year in PY1 through PY4. It would subsequently be res- ponsible, through local Livestock Department staff whose experience would have to be complemented by short training courses, for promoting the concept of and arranging official recognition for associations of pastoralists. It would then be responsible for selection of sites for pastoral centers, although it would be free to make the case that any particular pastoral center should precede formal constitution of associations of pastoralists; such cases would be subject to IDA approval and an assurance to this effect was obtained at negotiations. It would also be responsible, among duly-constituted associa- tions of pastoralists, for site selection of new wells and for deciding in which associations the new credit schemes would be launched. It would be responsible for the granting and recovery of credit for breeding and back- grounding, and for training staff and pastoralists in the filing of credit applications, constituting the collective guarantees, and monitoring the care - 21 - and use of animals acquired on credit. Loan applications would be approved by the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section, the credit officer and the respective provincial Livestock Department head. In collaboration with existing Livestock Department staff, particularly those stationed at markets, the credit officer would locate appropriate animals, inform successful loan applicants, help them conclude purchases and, when necessary, organize trans- port of animals. 4.05 PMU's Commercial and Administrative Section would be responsible for all project accounting, budgeting and cash-flow projections; it would process tender documents and other procurement papers, for which it would liaise with Government's Rural Engineering Department, follow-up auditors' recommendations and assist in setting up accounting procedures for the new credit schemes. It would be responsible for implementation of sound internal and management controls particularly with regard to stocks and receipts, and operating costs of vehicles and equipment. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that the Rural Engineering Department would provide all necessary support services for defining specifications and carrying out site surveys. 4.06 PMU's internal organization, its relationship to the existing Livestock Department structure, and to other departments and agencies, are illustrated at Chart No. 19077. Responsibilities and qualifications of key personnel are detailed at Annex 1. Appointment of the Project Manager and of the Chiefs of the Pastoral Activities and Commercial and Administrative Sections would be a condition of Credit effectiveness. B. Staffing 4.07 Since PMU would not be directly responsible for most of the animal health and productivity activities, its staffing needs are modest; nor do project activities require large numbers of incremental staff in the Livestock Department since there is already some under utilization of qualified staff. Incremental staffing needs are shown in Table 4.1. The Project Manager and the Chief of the Animal Husbandry Section would both be Nigerien livestock specialists. Two positions in PMU would be filled through international recruitment in which APMU could assist, namely the Chiefs of the Pastoral Activities Section and the Commercial and Administrative Section. Consultants would be recruited for (a) undertaking the large-scale smallstock vaccine tests (three man-months, para. 3.04), (b) identification of pastoral units (12 man-months, para. 4.04), (c) for training methods (six man-months, para. 4.08), (d) monitoring of animal health and productivity activities (10 man- months, para. 4.11), and (e) preparation of a follow-up project (18 man-months, para. 3.10). The project would provide, in sum, for eight man-years of tech- nical assistance at a unit cost of US$80,000, based on recent APMU experience, and 49 man-months of consultant services at a unit all-inclusive cost of US$8,900, of which US$6,500 for salary, US$1,500 for living expenses, and US$900 for travel. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the quali- fications and experience and terms of reference of the Project Manager, the three Section Chiefs and the Credit Officer (Annex 1) and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA; and that the terms and conditions of employment of internationally-recruited staff and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA. - 22 - Table 4.1 PROJECT STAFFING Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Livestock Department Grades Veterinarians 1/ Project Manager 1 1 1 1 1 Animal Husbandry Section Chief 1 1 1 1 1 Increment to be recruited 2 - - - Livestock Assistants LI -/ Pastoral Centers 1 2 3 5 5 New Veterinary Posts 3 7 11 11 11 Drug and Feed Promotion 3 3 3 3 3 Fattening Supervisor 1 1 1 1 1 Increment to be recruited 8 5 5 7 - Livestock Agents 4/ Pastoral Canters 1 2 3 5 5 Fattening 2 4 4 4 4 Increment to be recruited 3 3 1 2 - Expatriates Pastoral Activities Section Chief 5/ 1 1 1 1 - Commercial and Administrative Section Chief 6/ 1 1 1 1 - Increment to be recruited -2 -(2) Others 7/ Credit Officer - 1 1 1 1 First Aid Center Chief 1 2 3 5 5 Accountant 1 1 1 1 1 Vehicle Manager 1 1 1 1 1 Food Supply CQordinator - 1 1 1 1 Bookkeepers 2 2 2 2 2 Draughtsman 1 1 1 1 1 Interviewers 2 2 2 2 2 Secretaries 5 5 5 5 5 Storekeepers 1 2 3 5 5 Drivers 18 19 19 19 19 Clerks 5 5 5 5 5 Increment to be recruited 37 5T 2 4 Total Staff 52 65 73 81 79 Increment to be recruited 52 13 8 8 (2) 1/ Veterinary doctors or equivalent, trained abroad; present nationwide complement: 15; annual increment: 2 per year. 2/ There are two intermediate levels between Veterinarians and Livestock Assistants, namely (a) Technical Officers (graduates of a three-year program at the University of Niamey of whom the present nationwide complement is four and the annual increment two per year), and (b) Technical Agents who are promoted from among Livestock Assistants and of whom the present nationwide complement is eight. Since no such staff are expected to be available to the project, middle-level staff have been assessed as if all would be Livestock Assistants. 3/ Three-year studies at the Livestock Assistants and Agents School at Niamey; present nationwide complement 170; annual increment: 16 per year. 4/ Two-year studies at the above school; present nationwide complement: 196; annual increment:19 per year. 5/ Sociologist. 6/ Accountant. 7/ Some of whom may be recruited from Livestock Department Grades. - 23 - C. Training 4.08 The project includes three innovative activities in which livestock producers and Livestock Department field staff would need formal training. A consultant in training methods would be engaged for three months in each of the PYI and PY2 in order to define training methods and review their effec- tiveness with PMU. First, paraveterinary workers would be trained and staff would have to be taught how to train them. The Chief of the Animal Husbandry Section would undertake such staff training, through short courses in each of the provincial capitals, to be given in PY1 and PY2. Participating staff, about 10 per course, would be selected by their respective Provincial Live- stock Officers. Course content would draw on the results of the initial ethnoveterinary inventory (para. 3.03), on the Section Chief's own experience in giving the first few courses for paraveterinary workers himself, on his inspection of such courses given by staff, and on his monitoring of the effectiveness of trainees. Trainee paraveterinary workers would be selected by District Livestock Officers and, for the pastoral zone, by the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section; trainees need not be members of associations of pastoralists but the latter would be given priority in selection for training. One course per year, with about 5 participants, would be given for the duration of the project in each of the six district capitals that are in or close to the pastoral zone: Nguigmi, Diffa, Maine-Soroa, Goure, Tanout and Dakoro. One course with about 10 participants would be given in each of the first two years of operation of each pastoral center. Course leaders would decide which of the participants merited receiving a medical kit and would be empowered to distribute such kits. 4.09 The second innovation concerns the identification of pastoral units and the constitution and role of associations of pastoralists. Training in each of these activities would be undertaken by the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section. Short courses for staff, each with about 10 participants, would be given at Zinder, the first course early in PY1, with subsequent courses held once per year in May, which is otherwise a slack month. Par- ticipating staff would be selected by their respective Provincial Livestock Officers. For pastoralists, such training would be given in one-week courses to be held towards the end of each dry season initially in district capitals and subsequently in pastoral centers. The Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section would select participating pastoralists, initially from among tradi- tional leaders but increasingly from among members of associations and interested outsiders. The third innovation, the proposed breeding and back- grounding credits, requires training for both staff and members of associa- tions. The credit officer would undertake such training as a one-day component of the above courses. 4.10 Other training needs relate to human health workers and range manage- ment staff. Training of paramedical workers, undertaken by district staff of the Ministry of Health since 1965, has been concentrated in the cropping zone. Such training, and provision of the initial medical kit, would be provided by the project through Ministry of Health dispensary staff to be stationed at each pastoral center. An assurance to this effect was obtained at negotiations. - 24 - One course with about 10 participants would be given in each of the first two years of operation of each pastoral center. Formally-trained range management staff are very scarce, however, the ongoing USAID Range and Livestock Project is providing such training through scholarships for degree programs as well as shorter courses. D. Monitoring and Evaluation 4.11 Each of the innovative project activities would be undertaken on a small scale and monitoring and revision of such activities would be a necessary, manageable function of those responsible for their execution. Measurement of increased animal productivity would, however, require specific monitoring work on calving, mortality and culling coefficients of herds receiving different levels of services. Such information could be collected by existing staff and project staff, and their task would be eased by being able to work with associations of pastoralists and paraveterinary workers. Consultants would be hired, for a total of 10 man-months, to design the monitoring procedures in PY1 and to make an annual review of the results obtained and methods adopted. V. PRODUCTION, MARKETS AND PRICES, AND FINANCIAL RESULTS A. Production 5.01 The main output would be increased production of meat, mainly from cattle, arising from increased birth rates, reduced death rates particularly in young stock, and increased culling rates. The main changes in technical coefficients are shown at Table 5.1; carcass weights are assumed to remain unchanged except for specific fattening activities. 5.02 Outside the sphere of influence of pastoral centers, incremental production in the project area but particularly in the pastoral zone would reflect both accelerated herd growth and increased herd productivity. The scope for increased herd numbers would be limited by available feed resources and this constraint would begin to operate by about PY10 with the project but not until about PY15 without the project. About 20% of incremental production in PY10 would be due to incremental animals, or the project's impact on the pace of herd growth. By PY20, however, the animal population with and without the project, constrained by available feed resources, would be identical when expressed in tropical animal units, but different by age and sex distribution; incremental production in PY20 would actually be less than in PY1O, by about 15%, but it would be due exclusively to increased productivity. 5.03 Within the sphere of influence of pastoral centers, available feed resources would be increased, both by judicious siting of new wells and by range management practices; herd growth would not be constrained in the same manner as in the remainder of the pastoral zone with the project. There -25- Table 5.1 LIVESTOCK TECHNICAL COEFFICIENTS Without With Project but outside Pastoral Centers Project Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 ----------------------- ---------M--------------------------------- uattle Calving rate 60 60 60 61 62 63 Death rates (Offtake rates) Males 0-1 years 35 (10) 35 (10) 34 (10) 33 (10) 32 (10) 32 (10) 1-2 years 12 (25) 12 (25) 12 (25) 11 (25) 10 (25) 10 (25) 2-3 years 5 (25) 5 (25) 5 (25) 5 (25) 4 (25) 4 (25) 3-4 years 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) over 4 years 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) Females 0-1 years 30 (-) 30 (-) 29 (-) 28 (-) 27 (-) 26 (-) 1-2 years 10 (-) 10 (-) 10 (-) 9 (-) 8 (-) 8 (-) 2-3 years 5(-) 5 (-) 5 (-) 5 (-) 4 ) 4 ) 3-4 years 2(-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 1/ over 4 years 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (12) 2 (13) Sheep and Goats 2/ Birth rate 105 105 106 108 110 111 Death rates (Offtake rates) Males 0-1 years 33 (20) 32 (20) 31 (20) 29 (22) 28 (24) 28 (25) over 1 year 8 (50) 8 (50) 7 (50) 7 (52) 6 (53) 6 (53) Females 0-1 years 30 (12) 29 (12) 28 (12) 26 (13) 25 (15) 25 (16) 1-2 years 10 (13) 10 (13) 9 (13) 9 (14) 8 (15) 8 (16) over 2 years 4 (17) 4 (17) 4 (17) 4 (18) 4 (20) 4 (20) Within sphere of influence of Pastoral Centers Cattle Calving rate 60 61 62 63 65 Death rates (Offtake rates) Males 0-1 years 35 (10) 33 (10) 30 (10) 27 (10) 27 (10) 1-2 years 12 (25) 11 (25) 9 (25) 7 (25) 7 (25) 2-3 years 5 (25) 5 (25) 4 (25) 3 (25) 3 (25) 3-4 years 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) over 4 years 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) Females 0-1 years 30 (-) 27 (-) 24 (-) 21 () 21 () 1-2 years 10 (-) 9 (-) (-) 5 (-) 5 (-) 2-3 years 5 (-) 5 () 4 () 3 (-) 3 (-) 3-4 years 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-)3 over 4 years 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (12) 2 (1) Sheep and Goats Birth rate 105 108 110 113 117 Death rates (Offtake rates) Males 0-1 years 31 (22) 28 (24) 25 (26) 23 (28) 23 (30) over 1 year 8 (52) 7 (53) 5 (54) 4 (57) 4 (57) Females 0-1 years 29 (13) 28 (15) 24 (17) 20 (19) 20 (21) 1-2 years 9 (14) 8 (15) 7 (17) 6 (19) 6 (21) over 2 years 4 (18) 4 (19) 4 (21) 3 (23) 3 (24) 1/ Increases to 15% in PY10. 2/ Separate coefficients are assessed for goats in the cropping zone, where the prolific red goat (ch4vre rousse) is the predominant race; see Working Paper No. 3 in the Project File. 3/ Increases to 17% in Year 16. - 26 - would, moreover, be more intensive use of drugs and feed supplements than elsewhere. In comparison to the remainder of the pastoral zone with the project, incremental production from pastoral centers would reflect faster herd growth, further increased herd productivity and, particularly after PY10, a higher permissible animal population. Incremental production from pastoral centers would build up slowly through PY10 but subsequently increase; incre- mental production in PY20 would be four times higher than in PY10. The production effect of pastoral centers would indeed be long term, but it is important to start work soon, to seize the opportunity afforded by present, post-drought, low stocking rates to work with pastoralists to improve their management of the rangelands. 5.04 Total and incremental output by volume and value are indicated at Table 5.2, in which the incremental output from pastoral centers is included in the pastoral zone. The rate of increase of output in the cropping zone without the project is modest because there is relatively little scope for increasing herd numbers. While this constraint equally applies to the cropping zone with the project, in the latter case project activities would permit favorable changes in the age and sex distribution of the herd. In both the cropping zone and in the pastoral zone excluding the sphere of influence of pastoral centers, the rate of growth of the value of output between PY10 and PY20 is negligible. This reflects the limit imposed by available feed resources under systems of unimproved extensive grazing. B. Markets and Prices 5.05 Increased output of milk, and of meat from smallstock and camels, would be consumed mainly by the producers themselves. By contrast, most of the increased cattle production, or about 10,000 tons of meat equivalent per year after PY10, would be exported, mainly on the hoof to Nigeria, where imports are about 40,000 tons and satisfy 25% of domestic consumption. Given such a favorable and close outlet, and Government's liberal approach to livestock marketing, no marketing problem is foreseen. Liveweight prices in markets in Niger are currently very high, averaging about CFAF 200 (US$0.90) per kg. Such prices reflect the current unofficial rate of CFAF 200 per Naira and market conditions in Kano and further south, where frozen meat imports have reached 10,000 tons per year, retailed at controlled, subsidized prices. Until the Niara were freely convertible at its official value, and frozen meat imports were increased several-fold, which would require an adequately-equipped distribution system, and consumer preference for fresh meat. declined, live- weight prices in Niger would not fall from their present, apparently high levels because of competition from the world market. Prices may decline, however, as drought-hit herds are reconstituted throughout the Sahel and West African beef production may increase more rapidly than regional fresh meat demand. By contrast, Bank staff world price forecasts for beef through 1985 are for a real increase of 31% over 1978 levels. To take account of the possible decline in West African beef prices, whereby they may be once again - 27 - Table 5.2 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION Pastoral Zone Cropping Zone Total Value of Output (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$ bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.) PY 0 7.4 34 17.8 81 25.2 115 PY 10: without project 8.8 40 19.7 90 28.5 130 with project 1/ 10.3 2/ 47 21.3 97 31.6 144 increment 1.5 2/ 7 1.6 7 3.1 14 PY 20: without project 9.5 43 20.8 95 30.3 138 with project 1/ 11.0 3/ 50 21.9 100 32.9 150 increment 1.5 3/ 7 1.1 5 2.6 12 Volume of Meat ---------------------------------('000 tons)------------------------------------ PY 0 13.4 29.6 43.0 PY 10: without project 15.9 33.6 49.5 with project 4/ 19.5 37.3 56.8 increment 3.6 3.7 7.3 PY 20: without project 17.2 36.0 53.2 with project 4/ 21.0 38.8 59.8 increment 3.8 2.8 6.6 Volume of Milk PY 0 74.5 190.6 265.1 PY 10: without project 86.9 203.9 290.8 with project 90.6 207.4 298.0 increment 3.7 3.5 7.2 PY 20: without project 92.7 208.2 300.9 with project 94.4 210.1 304.5 increment 1.7 1.9 3.6 Numbers of Animals --------------------------------('000 TAU) 5/------------------------------- PY 0 742 1,333 2,075 PY 10: without project 848 1,485 2,333 with project 896 6/ 1,503 2,399 increment 48 6/ 18 66 PY 20: without project 899 1,537 2,436 with project 932 7/ 1,537 2,469 increment 33 7/ - 33 Total Herd Value (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$ bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.) PY 0 28.8 131 47.3 215 76.1 346 PY 20: without project 35.9 163 56.7 258 92.6 421 with project 37.0 8/ 168 56.7 258 93.7 426 increment 1.1 8/ 5 - - 1.1 5 1/ Excluding value of putput from credit schemes: CFAF 117 million/year. 2/ Includes CFAF 0.1 billion as incremental production from pastoral centers. 3/ Includes CFAF 0.4 billion as incremental production from pastoral centers. 4/ Excluding meat production from credit schemes: 250 tons/year at full production beginning PY 7. 5/ Tropical animal units; 1 head of cattle: 0.8 TAU; 1 sheep or goat: 0.16 TAU; 1 camel: 1.0 TAU. 6/ Includes 14,000 TAU as incremental animal population in pastoral centers. 7/ Includes 30,000 TAU as incremental animal population in pastoral centers. 8/ Includes CFAF 1.3 billion as incremental herd value in pastoral centers. - 28 - lower than world prices as was the case up to the drought, it is assumed for purposes of economic valuation of project output that real border prices ex-Niger will remain constant at an average of CFAF 200 (US$0.90) per kg. C. Producer Incomes 5.06 Incomes from livestock in 1979 constant prices accruing to average herd-owning families (para. 1.07) in the pastoral zone would increase, without the project, from CFAF 240,000 (US$1,090) in PYO to CFAF 295,000 (US$1,340) in PY10, or 2.1% per year. Incomes with the project would differ between those who are beneficiaries of pastoral centers, whose net income in PY10 would be CFAF 350,000 (US$1,590), and those who are not, whose net income in PY1O would be CFAF 335,000 (US$1,520). The initial cash flow of the 1,000 beneficiary families of a pastoral center is shown at Annex 2, Table 4. The aggregate net cash flow line gives only a broad indication of any individual family's cash flow since it does not reflect the heterogeneity of herd composition. Those who own more smallstock would have a more favorable cash flow than those who own more cattle. More important, it is assumed that not all animals would receive improved inputs and the cash inflow is derived from technical coeffi- cients that reflect average input use. Those pastoralists who make higher- than-average use of inputs would have accordingly higher outflows and inflows, though their initial net cash flows could be less favorable than the aver- age. Average outflows start, however, at only 2% of average without project income, and subsequently increase to about 5%; no significant cash flow problems are anticipated. Between PY10 and PY20 the difference in income between beneficiaries of pastoral centers, and others, would increase as the latter are increasingly constrained by available feed resources. For the former, net income in PY20 would be CFAF 415,000 (US$1,890) and for the latter, CFAF 350,000 (US$1,590); income without the project in PY20 would be CFAF 320,000 (US$1,450). These differences in income between the with and without project situations are not large but they are judged sufficient to ensure pastoralists' participation in the project, especially in pastoral centers at which human health services and food stocks would also be provided. 5.07 Average incomes from livestock accruing to herd-owners in the crop- ping zone would increase, without the project, from CFAF 89,000 (US$400) in PYO to CFAF 99,000 (US$450) in PY10, or 1.1% per year. Income with the project would increase to CFAF 107,000 (US$490) in PY10. In PY20, with project income would be CFAF 110,000 (US$500) in comparison to CFAF 104,000 (US$470) without the project. These small income increases reflect the limited scope for further extensive livestock production in the cropping zone where income from livestock, though significant, is secondary to income from cropping. There is, moreover, probably greater dispersion about the average in the cropping zone than in the pastoral zone, reflecting greater diversity of herd size and composition, and the varying extent to which owners confer management of cattle, and thereby the milk income, to pastoralists; such arrangements would in turn reduce livestock income disparities in the pastoral zone. - 29 - Loan Recipients' Incomes 5.08 Recipients of breeding loans would be among the most destitute of the people of the pastoral zone but, five years or more after the great drought, would not be entirely without income and even animals, particularly smallstock. The cash flow generated from five cows is, however, so slow that 10 immature males would also be provided in order to generate cash quickly and to permit reimbursement of the principal over six years. The cash flow per 100 loans is shown in Annex 2, Table 5; in constant prices net cash income would only be about CFAF 50,000 (US$230) per loan recipient in year 8, although the capital value of the herd would have doubled to CFAF 600,000 (US$2,730) and milk would provide an additional non-cash income of CFAF 35,000 (US$160). 5.09 Backgrounding and fattening loan recipients' returns are shown at Annex 2, Table 6. Recipients of backgrounding loans would put up about CFAF 7,900 (US$36) per immature male and receive CFAF 14,700 (US$67) after 18 months, for an annual return on their outlay of 49%. Loans would be given for any number of animals up to a maximum of 10 per recipient. Recipients of cattle fattening loans would receive a loan of 100% of the purchase price but would have to put up about CFAF 11,700 (US$53) per animal for inputs; they would receive CFAF 20,500 (US$93) after six months for a return of 75%. Loans would be given for a maximum of two animals per recipient but, in view of the avail- ability of farm by-products, in most cases for only one animal. Recipients of sheep fattening loans would also receive a loan for 100% of the purchase price and, for four animals, would have to put up CFAF 13,000 (US$59) for inputs. They would receive CFAF 20,600 (US$94) after 12 months for an annual return of 58%. Such loans would be given for any number of sheep up to a maximum of 10 per recipient. D. Financial Implications for Government 5.10 Whereas beneficiaries' contribution to recurrent costs after the project's development period would amount to CFAF 300 million (US$1.4 mil- lion) per year, Government's contribution would be about CFAF 180 million (US$820,000) per year in PY5 prices (Annex 2, Table 7); this would finance mainly maintenance of civil works especially wells, vehicle operating costs and staff. Additional revenue accruing to Government from the project has been estimated on the suppositions that existing taxes and fees would remain unchanged in real terms and that existing effective yield factors would also remain unchanged. Government would thereby obtain about CFAF 25 million (US$110,000) per year from increased proceeds from export taxes and from licenses, fees and export permits. Further additional revenue would arise from indirect taxes on increased consumption in the modern sector by project beneficiaries, but this cannot be satisfactorily estimated and has been ignored. Government would therefore incur a net deficit from project-induced expenditures and revenues of about CFAF 155 million (US$710,000) per year in PY5 prices, or about CFAF 110 million (US$500,000) in present prices. This compares to a current deficit on livestock expenditures and revenues in the - 30 - project area of about CFAF 30 million (US$140,000) per year. Government's deficit would therefore increase nearly three times in present prices after the project's development period. Government is not, however, disposed to introduce vaccination or other charges that could readily wipe out the aggregate annual deficit because (a) although the project generates high aggregate net incremental income, of about CFAF 3 billion (US$13.6 million) per year by PY1O, incremental income per beneficiary family is not great (para. 5.06 and 5.07) and beneficiaries will remain poor and (b) Government has adopted a policy of transferring part of its substantial revenues from uranium mining to the rural sector. VI. ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION A. Project Benefits 6.01 All herd-owners in the project area, or over 200,000 families, would benefit from improved animal health services. About half those families would benefit from improved animal productivity services, mainly more readily accessible drugs and feed supplements. Beneficiaries of specific project activities, with more substantial benefits per recipient, would include 5,000 families in pastoral centers, 7,500 cattle fatteners per year and 8,000 sheep fatteners per year, mostly women. While the project's incremental output arises mainly from improved animal health and productivity, the successful introduction of associations of pastoralists and pastoral centers would be a significant innovation. The effective collaboration of pastoralists and technicians in resource management would have major ecological benefits which, though long term, would also constitute an economically acceptable enterprise (para. 6.02). The Livestock Department staff's field of competence would be broadened, both through on-the-job experience and formal training, from pro- vision of animal health services to provision of animal and pastoral produc- tivity services. At project completion, the Department would be equipped to provide such services on a larger scale than envisaged under the proposed project. B. Economic Analysis 6.02 The following major assumptions have been used: (a) project life: 20 years; (b) standard conversion factor to express local costs in border prices: 0.86; (c) Project Management Unit costs allocated between the pastoral zone (19%), pastoral centers (44%) and cropping zone (37%) by their estimated share of the Unit's activities, excluding 18 man-months of consultant services for studies for follow-up project preparation; (d) phasing-out of the Unit's staff and associated costs at 50% PY6-10, 25% PY11-15, 10% PY16-20, and at similar rates for other staff; (e) incremental output from herd models valued - 31 - as at para. 5.05 but not increased to take account of export taxes since the latter are negligible; (f) no residual value attributed to remaining capital items at end PY20 but incremental herd value included. For pastoral centers, whose locations are to be determined, two without project situations have been examined, namely including or excluding project activities to be undertaken in the pastoral zone. The actual situation would likely fall between these two cases. Based on these assumptions, economic costs and benefits are detailed in Working Paper No. 6, summarized in Table 6.1, and economic rates of return are as follows: pastoral zone (11% of project costs): over 100%; pastoral centers (31% of project costs): 8% or 15% depending on the without project situation; cropping zone (42% of project costs): 100%; and cattle and sheep fattening (10% of project costs): 17%. The overall rate of return for these components covering 94% of project costs would be 82%. 6.03 The high rates of return to the pastoral zone and cropping zone components arise from the substantial and rapid benefits from animal health and productivity measures whereby net benefits would be positive in all but the first two years. In addition, most of the work would be undertaken by existing Livestock Department staff and the initial herd value, too, would be a sunk cost. If the value of total herd output net of purchased inputs is expressed as an annual return on the capital value of the herd, this return would increase by only two percentage points, from 33% before the project to 35% in PY20. The return on the inputs required to promote this change is, however, very high. By contrast, the far lower but still acceptable rates of return to pastoral centers arise from slow growth in incremental benefits, especially through PY10; such slow growth also renders the return to pastoral centers insensitive to changes in costs and benefits (Table 6.1). Risks 6.04 The three main risks are of poor management, particularly in respect of the promotion and marketing of drugs and feed supplements, of problems arising from the separation of animal ownership and herd management, and of the possible ineffectiveness of associations of pastoralists and pastoral centers. Drug and feed supplement marketing requires a sympathetic under- standing of pastoralists' conceptions of animal health, diseases and cures, a willingness to make frequent visits in harsh conditions to pastoralists, and an ability to organize timely supplies and good storage of products. Govern- ment and Livestock Department staff are, however, keen to accept the challenge of their increased responsibilities under the project. Moreover, the Project Management Unit's animal husbandry section would be headed by an experienced senior livestock officer, the Unit's commercial and administrative section would handle all procurement, and the project includes technical support ser- vices by consultants to help design and monitor animal productivity measures. The second risk is that pastoralists managing animals which they do not own would be insufficiently concerned with improving animal productivity. This risk applies, potentially, to all cattle in the cropping zone or 62% of all cattle, or 34% of all livestock, in the project area. Since, however, owners necessarily select managers in whom they have confidence, probably based on -32 - Table 6.1 ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 19 Year 20 / EPR ---------------------------------(CFAF million)----------------------------------------------------------------- Pastoral Zone Incremental Costs P1 70.5 65.1 123.9 103.3 78.6 76.3 71.4 68.6 68.4 Benefits with the project 7.528.9 7,77.3 8.394.9 8,929.2 9,225.6 10,374.4 10,639.3 10.722.4 17,534.3 Benefits without project 71519.9 7,724.5 7,936.4 8,391.8 8,429.0 8,948.6 9,393.7 9,188.7 16,773.5 Incremental Benefits 9.0 48.8 458.5 537.4 796.6 1,425.6 1,295.8 1,133.7 760.8 Net Benefits (61.1) (16.3) 334.6 434.1 718.0 1,349.5 1,174.2 1,065.1 692.4 7100 Pastoral Centers Incremental Costs 2/ 164.1 152.1 118.3 269.6 94.6 113.1 98.2 85.3 84.8 Benefits with the project 258.3 535.1 846.3 1,493.7 1,553.8 1,797.5 2,052.5 2,144.1 4,604.5 Benefits without project: A 11 249.8 516.1 836.8 1,484.2 1,534.0 1,726.4 1,769.5 1,782.5 2,879.7 Incremental Benefits 8.5 19.0 9.5 9.8 19.8 7?.1 2303.0 361.6 1,724.8 Net Benefits (155.6) (133.1) (148.8) (260.1) (74.8) (42.0) 184.8 276.3 1,640.0 8 Pastoral Zone and Centers Net Benefits (217.1) (149.4) 185.8 174.0 643.2 1,307.5 989.4 788.8 2,332.4 77 croppinL Zone Incremental Costs 2l 167.3 372.8 171.9 157.7 151.9 148.0 128.6 118.0 117.5 Benefits with the project 17.899.2 18,477.8 18,794.2 19.471.7 20,109.5 21,377.4 21.837.3 21,963.4 31,411.9 Benefits without project 17,894.2 18,272.4 18,515.5 18,716.9 18,933.2 19,766.6 20,492.6 20,694.2 30,154.0 Incremental Benefits 5.0 205.4 278.7 754.8 1,176.3 1,61o.8 L,344.7 1,269.2 .B80- Net Benefits (162.3) (167.4) 106.8 597.1 1,024.4 1,462.8 1,216.1 1,151.2 1,139,0) 100 Animal Fattening Incremental Costs 36.6 86.5 153.5 220.8 289.5 284.8 283.2 281.6 281.6 Incremental Benefits - .36.6 95.7 177.5 203. 341.1 341.1 341.1 341.1 Net Benefits (36.6) (49.7) (57.8) (43.3) (30.2) 16.3 57.9 59.5 59.5 17 Total 4' Incremental Costs 438.5 676.3 67.6 751.4 614.6 622.2 581.4 553.5 552.3 Incremental Benefits 2.5 309.8 842.4 1,479.2 2,252.0 3,448.8 3,214.4 3,105.6 (659.8) Net Benefits (416.0) (366.5) 234.8 727.8 1,637.4 2,826.6 2,633.0 2,552.1 (1,212.1) 82 Note: Pastoral Centers: B 5/ Net Benefits (155.3) (139.1) (140.8) (269.6) (68.3) 105.4 325.3 442.5 1,755.8 15 Net Benefit Streams from above Incremental Benefits Lganed 1 Year Tie B -10% B -20% C +10% Base B -10T B -20% C +10% ------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------- Pastoral Zone '100 7100 7100 7100 7100 98.9 91.7 98.9 Pastoral Centers: A 7.8 6.s 5.1 6.7 7.0 5.9 4.6 6.0 Cropping Zone 99.8 90.5 81.1 91.4 63.1 58.5 53.7 59.0 Animal Fattening / 16.7 14.7 12.4 16.6 - - - Total 81.6 73.0 4.2 73.8 51.p 47.0 42.3 47.5 Note: Pastoral Centers: B 14.5 12.9 11.2 13.1 12.7 11.4 9M9 11.5 1/ Includes incremental herd value, which is negative in the pastoral zone (herd numbers similar but age and sae composition different), positive in pastoral centers and sOW in the cropping zone. 5/ Including share of Project Management Unit costs allocated (per Working Paper No. 6) as follows: pastoral zone 19%; pastoral centers 44%; cropping zone 37%; allocation pertains to all Project Management Unit costs except 27 man-months of consultant services for studies. 3/ Case,.A% pastoral centers treated as incremental to broad pastoral zone project activities, i.e. pastoral centers without project identical to pastoral zone with the project, pro-rated by respective numbers of tropical animal units. 4 Represents 94% of total project costae pastoral zone 11%; pastoral centers 31%; cropping zone 42%; animal fattening 10%; remaining costs are for breeding loans (3%), consultant services for studies (2%) and backgrounding loans (1%). 5 Case B: pastoral centers treated as incremental to the pastoral zone without the project, i.e. pastoral centers sited in relatively remote locations where the project's broad activities in the pastoral sone inoperative. Sensitivity conducted on costs and benefits other than the initial cost of animals to be fattened; lagging of incremental benefits by oneypear not applicable. - 33 - kin and other ties, the risk is considered acceptable. Moreover, as noted at para. 1.05, there has been no discernible decline in demand for animal health services in the last few years even though the separation of ownership and management increased as a consequence of the drought. The third risk, that associations of pastoralists and effective collaboration between pastoralists and technicians would be slow to develop, is significant but pertains to the innovative part of the project rather than the whole. To reduce this risk, a pastoral unit identification test was undertaken in part of the project area in August-September 1978. Headed by a sociologist, the team identified seven pastoral units and concluded that associations of pastoralists could indeed be constituted and operational. In addition, the chief of the Project Management Unit's pastoral activities section, a sociologist familiar with the project area, has already been identified. Above all, senior Livestock Department staff, aware of the danger of a top-down approach to animal and pastoral productivity, are keen to begin to work with pastoralists rather than simply with their animals. 6.05 Sensitivity tests have been used to evaluate the potential impact of these and other risks. Rates of return to the pastoral zone and cropping zone components are sensitive to an overall delay of one year in their bene- fits but remain high; the return in the cropping zone would fall from 100% to 63%. By contrast, the rate of return to pastoral centers with a one-year delay in project benefits would only fall from 7.8% to 7.0%. These tests indicate that the project could withstand the possible risks yet still be economically viable. VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 7.01 During negotiations, assurances were obtained from Government that: (i) Government would make explicit budgetary provision for purchases of vaccines against contagious cattle diseases throughout the project area for the duration of the project (para. 3.04); (ii) large-scale tests of a combined vaccine against small- stock plague and para-influenza would be subject to IDA approval (para. 3.04); (iii) drugs as listed at para. 3.03 and feed supplements would be sold, throughout the project area for the duration of the project, at prices sufficient to cover costs of purchase, delivery and final distribution, and proceeds from such sales would be put into a revolving fund (para. 3.04); - 34 - (iv) the legal instruments required to provide for official recognition of associations of pastoralists would be issued by December 31, 1979, that they would include allocation of exclusive watering rights to each associa- tion in its area, that they would also include a model charter for an association of pastoralists, and that the charter would be subject to consultation with IDA (para. 3.05); (v) the final design and site selection of each pastoral center would be subject to IDA approval (para. 3.05); (vi) proceeds from sales of human health supplies and food stocks would be used to set up revolving funds for further acquisi- tion of such supplies and stocks (para. 3.06); (vii) the project would provide new pastoral wells only where an association of pastoralists had been constituted in an identified pastoral unit with sufficient grazing resources, and that association had undertaken to provide all unskilled labor, in kind or in cash, required for well-digging (para. 3.06); (viii) all credit policies and procedures would be as specified at para. 3.07; (ix) final designs for the two main markets, at Zinder and Maradi, would be subject to IDA approval (para. 3.08); (x) recipients of loans for cattle and sheep fattening would be charged interest for the exact period for which the loan was outstanding (para. 3.09); (xi) Government would replenish the project account quarterly on the basis of cash forecasts made by the project manage- ment unit (para. 3.14); (xii) the contract to be negotiated with OFEDES for pastoral well construction would be satisfactory to IDA (para. 3.15); (xiii) the project account would be audited and reports submitted to IDA as detailed in para. 3.18; (xiv) the project's annual work program and budget would be for- warded by the Director of the Livestock Department, by July 31 of each year, to IDA for approval (para. 4.02); (xv) the project manager would introduce by September 30, 1979, a reporting system along lines to be indicated by IDA and, by March 31, 1980, a project monitoring system (para. 4.02); - 35 - (xvi) Government would within six months of the closing date prepare a project completion report (para. 4.02); (xvii) construction of any particular pastoral center prior to formal constitution of associations of pastoralists would be subject to IDA approval (para. 4.04); (xviii) the Rural Engineering Department would provide all necessary support services to PMU for defining specifications and carrying out site surveys (para. 4.05); (xix) the qualifications and experience and terms of reference of the Project Manager, the three Section Chiefs and the Credit Officer (Annex 1) and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA; and the terms and conditions of employment of internationally-recruited staff and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA (para. 4.07); (xx) the Ministry of Health would station dispensary staff, who would also undertake training of paramedical workers, in each pastoral center (para. 4.10). 7.02 Conditions of effectiveness would be that: (i) Government had made an initial deposit of CFAF 150 million (US$0.6 million) into the project account (para. 3.14); (ii) the Project Manager and Chiefs of the Pastoral Activities Section and the Commercial and Administrative Section had been appointed (para. 4.06). 7.03 With the indicated assurances and conditions, the proposed project is suitable for a credit on standard terms of US$12 million equivalent to the Government of Niger. - 36 - ANNEX 1 Page 1 NICER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Responsibilities and Qualifications of Key Personnel 1. Project Manager 1.1 The project manager would be head of the Project Management Unit and as such he would be responsible for the technical, financial and economic success of the project. He would be specifically responsible for: (a) preparing annual work programs and budgets; (b) establishing a reporting system and preparing periodic and annual progress reports; (c) obtaining the issuance of legal instruments governing the rights and obligations of associations of pastoralists; (d) coordinating the participation of the Ministry of Health, OPVN, CNCA, UNCC, OFEDES and the Community Development Department in project activities, through his attendance as full member of the three Provincial Technical Committees; (e) coordinating project activities with other interventions in the livestock sector in or of relevance to the project area; (f) ensuring adherence to all covenants in the Credit Agreement; (g) preparing a follow-up livestock project. 1.2 The qualifications and experience of the project manager would be: (a) a postgraduate degree (or its equivalent), preferably in agri- culture or veterinary science; (b) actual experience or an indicated potential as a leader able to coordinate the activities of a team and/or different agencies; (c) field experience in working with pastoral peoples indicating a capacity for gaining their confidence; (d) general management skills including preferably some familiarity with credit in the rural sector. - 37 - ANNEX 1 Page 2 2. Chief of the Animal Husbandry Section 2.1 Under the direction of the project manager, he would be responsible for: (a) promoting increased use of drugs and feed supplements, arrang- ing for training of paraveterinary workers to be undertaken by Livestock Department staff, and teaching staff how to give that training, and reviewing the effectiveness of trainees; (b) improving the quality of advice given to cattle fatteners and initiating the provision of credit and sound advice to sheep fatteners; (c) improving the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns through provision of equipment in good working order and through better communication between staff and livestock producers; (d) designing, monitoring and improving the animal husbandry and range management advice to be given to all associations of pastoralists; (e) improving the quality of market statistics and supervising data-gathering for all project studies. 2.2 The qualifications and experience of the Animal Husbandry Section Chief would be: (a) a postgraduate degree (or its equivalent), preferably in animal production; (b) field experience in working with pastoral and sedentary peoples, preferably in the project area, indicating a capacity for gaining their confidence; (c) willingness to work in the field away from project headquarters for an average of 15 days per month; (d) some familiarity with range management theory and practice; (e) proven capability to guide and motivate lower-level staff. 3. Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section 3.1 Under the direction of the project manager, he would be responsible for: (a) identifying pastoral units, including sites for new wells, and engaging consultants to assist him in that task; - 38 - ANNEX 1 Page 3 (b) constituting associations of pastoralists and training Live- stock Department staff in that task; (c) selecting sites for pastoral centers and supervising the operation of such centers; (d) undertaking an ethnoveterinary inventory and preparing a manual for use in training paraveterinary workers; (e) supervising the setting up and operation of credit schemes for breeding and backgrounding. 3.2 The qualifications and experience of the Pastoral Activities Section Chief would be: (a) an appropriate university degree; (b) field experience in working with pastoral peoples, prefer- ably in the project area, indicating a capacity for gaining their confidence; (c) willingness to work in the field away from project headquarters for an average of 15 days per month; (d) a good knowledge of French and at least one local language. 4. Credit Officer 4.1 Under the direction of the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section, he would be responsible for: (a) explaining to associations of pastoralists the two new forms of credit and the guarantees to be put up; (b) designing credit processing forms, the accounting system and repayment mechanisms; (c) preparing illustrative budgets for potential loan recipients; (d) supervising the acquisition and marking of animals acquired on credit; (e) setting up and servicing, as secretary and full member, each provincial loan approval committee. 4.2 The qualifications and experience of the credit officer would be: (a) actual experience or an indicated potential as an innovator; - 39 - ANNEX 1 Page 4 (b) field experience in working with pastoral people, preferably in the project area, indicating a capacity for gaining their confidence; (c) willingness to work in the field away from project headquarters for an average of 15 days per month; (d) actual experience in operating a credit scheme in the rural sector. 5. Chief of the Commercial and Administrative Section 5.1 Under the direction of the project manager, he would be responsible for: (a) setting up detailed accounts and a consolidated project account and control of bookkeeping; (b) preparing detailed annual budgets and quarterly cash flow projhetions; (c) designing and implementing sound internal and management controls particularly with regard to equipment maintenance, stocks and receipts, and vehicle operating costs; (d) processing of tender documents and other procurement papers; (e) preparing applications for withdrawal from the IDA credit account; (f) assisting the credit officer in setting up accounting pro- cedures for the new forms of credit; (g) follow-up of auditors' recommendations. 5.2 The qualifications and experience of the Commercial and Administra- tive Section Chief would be: (a) a university degree (or its equivalent) or membership in a recognized professional body evidencing formal knowledge of modern accounting theory and practice in accordance with generally accepted international standards; (b) five years professional experience, preferably in a country using the OCAM or French accounting plans and some of which in a commercial enterprise; (c) actual experience with procurement, preferably with civil works as well as supplies; (d) a good knowledge of French. - 40- ANNEX 2 Table 1 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Project Costs by Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Total Foreign Exchange ------- (CFAF '000, May 1979 prices) -------------- (US$'000) (%) Pastoral Zone 1/ Civil Works 28,080 11,189 41,969 21,600 - 102,838 467 60 Vehicles and Equipment 214 171 13,544 652 652 15,233 69 90 Input Supplies 14,212 9,673 12,563 13,539 19,522 69,509 316 75 Staff - - 4,275 4,275 4,275 12,825 58 0 Operating Costs 770 770 1,090 1,090 1,090 4,810 22 65 Subtotal 43,276 21,803 73,441 41,156 25,539 205,215 932 64 Pastoral Centers 2/ Civil Works 58,720 58,720 58,720 117,439 - 293,599 1,336 60 Vehicles and Equipment 10,500 10,692 10,885 24,273 3,658 60,008 273 90 Input Supplies 11,434 13,312 15,566 29,421 8,496 78,229 356 75 Staff 4,848 9,696 14,544 24,240 24,240 77,568 353 0 Operating Costs 2,662 5,418 7,773 12,910 12,822 41,585 189 65 Subtotal 88,164 97,838 107,488 208,283 49,216 550,989 2,507 57 Credit for Breeding and Backgrounding 3/ - 6,805 17,212 27,273 53,765 105,055 477 0 Cropping Zone 4/ Civil Works 35,138 245,894 45,085 - - 326,117 1,482 60 Vehicles and Equipment 46,843 28,530 21,690 33,459 22,469 152,991 695 90 Input Supplies 20,824 17,985 22,298 34,337 33,760 129,204 587 75 Staff 17,250 25,672 27,193 27,193 27,193 124,501 566 0 Operating Costs 34,395 35,036 35,197 35,197 35,197 175,022 795 65 Subtotal 154*450 353,117 151,463 130,186 118,619 907,835 4,125 60 Credit for Cattle and Sheep Fattening 3/ 30,648 47,608 63,271 59,314 55,353 256,194 1,164 0 Project Management Unit 5/ Civil Works 29,743 - - - - 29,743 135 60 Vehicles and Equipment 36,413 8,926 160 19,227 160 64,886 295 90 Staff 76,543 86,266 96,742 84,171 23,409 367,131 1,669 55 Operating Costs 37,347 38,843 33,498 28,153 28,153 165,994 756 65 Subtotal 180,046 134,035 130,400 131,551 51,722 627,754 2,855 62 Base Cost Estimate 496,584 661,206 543,275 597,763 354,214 2,653,042 12,060 52 Physical Contingencies 32,150 47,376 33,187 37,037 9,232 158,982 723 62 Expected Price Increases 6/ 18,326 73,340 97,582 153,479 110,851 453,578 2,062 52 Total Project Cost 547,060 781,922 674,044 788,279 474,297 3,265,602 14,845 7/ 52 1/ Working Paper 5, Table 1. 2/ Working Paper 5, Table 2. 3/ Working Paper 5, Table 4. 4/ Working Paper 5, Table 3. 5/ Working Paper 5, Table 5. 6/ Civil works: 7.5% per year through end-1979, 7% thereafter; all other items: 6.5% per year through end-1979, 6% thereafter. Inflation factors are: Year 1: civil works 3.8%, all other items 3.3%; rear 2: civil works 11.1%, all other items 9.6%; Year 3: civil works 18.9%, all other items 16.1%; Year 4: civil works 27.2%, all other items 23.1%; Year 5: civil works 36.1%, all other items 30.5%. 7/ Not rounded. Shown in text (Table 3.2) as US$ 15 million, with Expected Price Increases increased to US$ 2.217 million for consistency of the text table. - 41 - NIGER ANNEX 2 Table 2 LIVESTOCK PROJECT Project Fiancing Details Total Government CNCA Beneficiaries IDA A. By Activity CFAF M $000 CFAF M CFAF M $'000 CFAF M $'000 CFAF M $'000 Pastoral Zone Civil Works 102.8 467 - - - - 2.7 12 100.1 455 Vehicles and Equipment 15.2 69 - - - - - - 15.2 69 Input Supplies 69.5 316 - - - - - - 69.5 316 Staff 12.8 58 4.5 20 - - - - 8.3 38 Operating Costs 4.8 22 1.7 8 - - - - 3.1 14 Subtotal 205.1 932 6.2 28 - - 2.7 12 196.2 892 Pastoral Centers Civil Works 293.6 1,336 - - - - 4.5 20 289.1 1,316 Vehicles and Equipment 60.0 273 - - - - - - 60.0 273 Input Supplies 78.2 356 - - - - - - 78.2 356 Staff 77.6 353 77.2 124 - - - - 50.4 229 Operating Costs 41.6 189 13.0 59 - - 4.4 20 24.2 110 Subtotal 551.0 2.507 40.2 183 5018. 2, M Credit for Breeding and Backgrounding 105.1 477 - - - - 6.5 30 98.6 447 Cropping Zone Civil Works 326.1 1,482 - - - - - - 326.1 1,482 Vehicles and Equipment 153,0 695 - - - - - - 153.0 695 Input Supplies 129.2 -.687 - - - - - - 129.2 587 Staff 124.5 566 43.6 198 - - - - 80.9 368 Operating Costs 175.0 795 61.2 278 - - - - 113.8 517 Subtotal s07-. 4,125 104.8 476 - _ 803.0 * 4 Credit for Cattle and Sheep Fattening 256.2 1,164- 1R1. 827 74.3 337 - - Project Management Unit Civil Works 29.8 135 - - - - - - 29.8 135 Vehicles and Equipment 64.9 295 - - - - - - 64.9 295 Staff 367.1 1,669 39.7 181 - - - - 327.4 1,488 Operating Costs 166.0 756 58.1 264 - - - - 107.9 492 Subtotal 627.8 2,855 97.8 A" - - - - 530.0 2,410 Base Cost Estimate 2, 12,060 249.0 1,332 181.9 827 92.4 419 2,129.7 9,682 Physical Contin- gencies 159.0 723 13.4 61 - - 1.9 9 143.7 653 Expected Price Increases 453.6 2,062 45.5 207 31.9 145 18.9 86 357.3 1,624 Total Project Cost !d6U 155 307.9 1.400 2/ 213 A 17 113.2 U24 1/ Not rounded. Financing plan in text shows rounded figure of US$ 15 million. 2/ Shown in text financing plan as US$ 1.514 million for consistency of text table. B. By Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total ------------------------------ (CFAF'OO) ------------- ------- Government Base Cost Estimate 40,985 48,461 51,186 54,291 54,112 249,035 Physical Contingencies 2,626 2,789 2,689 2,660 2,642 13,406 Expected Price Increases 1,439 4,920 8,674 13,156 17,310 45,499 Total 45,050 56,170 62,549 70,107 74,064 307,940 CNCA Base Cost Estimate 24,988 35,373 44,465 40,504 36,544 181,874 Physical Contingencies - - - Expected Price Increases 825 3,396 7,159 9,356 11,146 31,882 Total 25,813 38,769 51,624 4 47,690 213,756 Beneficiaries Base Cost Estimate 7,251 14,065 21,708 24,492 24,901 92,417 Physical Contingencies 303 327 362 714 177 1,883 Expected Price Increases 258 1,408 3,602 5,965 7,649 18,882 Total 7,812 15,800 25,672 31,171 32727 113,182 IDA Base Cost Estimate 423,360 563,307 425.916 478.476 238,657 2,129,726 Physical Contingencies 29,221 44,260 30,136 33,663 6,413 143,693 Expected Price Increases 15,804 63,616 78,147 1P3,002 74,746 357,315 Total 4 163 199 637,141 319,816 2,630,724 - 42 - ANNEX 2 Table 3 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT IDA Disbursement Categories and Schedule Base Cost plus Rounded for Disbursement Categories Physical Contingencies Disbursement Schedule (CFAF million) (US$'000) (US$'000) I. Civil Works 859 3,905 3,800 II. Vehicles and Equipment 293 1,332 1,300 III. Input Supplies 282 1,282 1,300 IV. Credit 99 450 450 V. Expatriate Staff and Consultants 1/ 253 1,150 1,150 VI. Local Staff 213 968 1,000 VII. Operating Costs 274 1,246 1,200 IX. Unallocated _35J1 1,624 1,800 Total Z.M 3:1 12 (000 I! Of which US$ 80,000 for Category VIII, Refunding of Project Preparation Advance. IDA Fiscal Year Quarterly Cumulative ---------- (US$ million) ---------- FY 1980 1st Quarter 0.1 0.1 2nd Quarter 0.1 0.2 3rd Quarter 0.2 0.4 4th Quarter 0.2 0.6 FY 1981 1st Quarter 0.4 1.0 2nd Quarter 0.4 1.4 3rd Quarter 0.5 1.9 4th Quarter 0.5 2.4 FY 1982 1st Quarter 0.8 3.2 2nd Quarter 0.8 4.0 3rd Quarter 0.8 4.8 4th Quarter 0.8 5.6 FY 1983 1st Quarter 0.8 6.4 2nd Quarter 0.8 7.2 3rd Quarter 0.8 8.0 4th Quarter 0.8 8.8 FY 1984 1st Quarter 0.7 9.5 2nd Quarter 0.7 10.2 3rd Quarter 0.7 10.9 4th Quarter 0.6 11.5 FY 1985 1st Quarter 0.2 11.7 2nd Quarter 0.2 11.9 3rd Quarter 0.1 12.0 -43 - ANNEX 2 Table 4 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Pastoral Center Beneficiaries Cash Flow Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 ------------------------- (CFAF '000) -------------------------- Drugs Drenches 208 .342 538 735 740 757 Deworming 119 346 828 830 830 831 Coccidiosis 92 153 242 333 337 345 Trypanocides 231 234 238 241 245 249 External parasites 29 59 90 91 92 94 Subtotal 679 1,134 1,936 2,230 2,244 2,276 Feed Calf supplement 651 1,300 1,951 2,600 2,600 2,600 Mineral supplement 1/ 1,236 1,824 2,412 3,648 3,648 3,648 Vitamin supplement 131 197 262 346 394 394 Subtotal 2,018 3,321 4,625 6,594 6,642 6,642 Distribution margin 2/ 135 223 328 441 444 446 Well-digging 3/ 260 260 260 260 260 260 Total Cash Outflow 3, 4,938 9 9 9 -------------------------- (CFAF million)------------------------ Cash Inflow 4/ With project 5/ 183.6 192.0 203.4 216.9 226.5 235.2 Without project 174.6 181.8 183.9 197.0 197.1 201.3 Increment 9.0 10.2 19.5 19.9 29.4 33.9 Less: Outflow 3.1 4.9 7.1 9.5 9.6 9.6 Net Incremental Cash Flow 6/ 5.9 5.3 12.4 10.4 19.8 24.3 1/ In part a substitute for existing (and "without project") salt purchases. 2/ 5% on drugs and feed payable to paraveterinary workers, themselves beneficiaries. 3/ In kind or in cash. 4/ Assumes no milk sales but that all animal offtake is sold. 5/ Working Paper 3, Table 6A. 6/ Does not adequately capture lags between expenditures and receipts within the year. - 44 ANNEX 2 Table 5 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Breeding Loan Recipients Cash Flow 1/ Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 (CFAF '000) --------------------- Inflow Loan Proceeds for Breeding Cows 30,000 - - - - - - for Immature Males 33,660 - - - - - - - Sales Proceeds from Breeding Herd 2/ - 197 783 1,953 2,649 3,578 4,668 5,795 from Immature Males: A 3/ - 23,095 11,547 17,321 14,434 15,866 - - B - - 23,095 11,547 17,321 14,434 15,866 - Total Inflow 63,660 23,292 35,425 30,821 34,404 33,878 20,534 5,795 Outflow Purchases Cows 30,000 - - - - - - - Immature Males 4/ 33,660 16,830 25,245 21,038 23,124 - - - Inputs 5/ 158 269 383 537 543 544 546 548 Total Outflow 63,818 17,099 25,628 21,575 23,667 544 546 548 Net Cash Flow Before Repayments (158) 6,193 9,797 9,246 10,737 33,334 19,988 5,247 In Current Prices 6/ (167) 6,961 11,668 11,668 14,366 47,301 30,062 8,364 Repayments 7/ - 3,183 6,366 6,366 9,549 28,647 9,549 - After Repayments (167) 3,778 5,302 5,302 4,817 18,654 20,513 8,364 In Constant Prices 8! (167) 3,010 3,431 2,880 1,188 4,687 10,439 5,247 Capital Value of Breeding Herd 8/ 30,000 60,084 1/ Per 100 loans or 500 breeding cows and 1,000 immature males. 2/ Details at Working Paper 2, Table 4. 3/ Sales at 260 kg after 18 months on average, 5% mortality; line A: sales after 12 months; line B: sales after 24 months. 4/ Purchases at 180 kg at two years; unit cost CFAF 187 per kg and unchanged at time of sale; assumes that all immature males sold off are replaced through year 5, i.e., 500 head in year 2, 750 in year 3, 613 in year 4 and 687 in year 5. 5/ Prorata with cattle inputs in pastoral centers: Working Paper 3, Table 6B. 6/ Inflation at 6% per year. 7/ Year 2: 5%; Years 3 and 4: 10%; Year 5: 15%; Year 6: 45%; Year 7: 15%. 8/ 1979 constant prices. - 5ANNEX 2 Table 6 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Backgrounding and Fattening Loan Recipients Returns Backgrounding Cattle Fattening Sheep Fattening Month 0 Month 18 Month 0 Month 6 Month 0 Month 12 ----(CFAF/head) -- (CFAF/head)--- ----- (CFAF) ---- Inflow Inflow Inflow Loan Proceeds 1/ 26,928 - Loan Proceeds 1/ 46,750 - Loan Proceeds 1/ 22,000 - Sale 2/ - 46,190 Sale 2/ - 69,800 Sale - 45,000 Outflow Outflow Outflow Purchase 3/ 33,660 - Purchase 3/ 46,750 - Purchase 3/ 22,000 - Drugs and Buying expenses 1,000 - Buying expenses 1,500 - Supplements 1,200 - Drugs and Drugs and Loan Repayment 4/ - 31,506 Supplements 1,100 - Supplements 750 - Cotton seed 4/ 2,240 - Bran 4/ 10,800 - Bran 5/ 4,200 - Loan Repayment 5/ - 24,420 Legume hay 6/ 3,150 - Loan Repayment 7/ - 49,320 Net Cash Flow (7,932) 14,684 Net Cash Flow (11,690) 20,480 8/ Net Cash Flow (13,050) 20,580 6/ Net Revenue 6,752 Net Revenue 8,790 Net Revenue 7,530 Return on initial Return on initial Return on initial outlay 85% outlay 75% outlay 58% Annual return 49% Annual return 206% Annual return 58% 1/ 80% of purchase price. 1/ 100% of purchase price. 1/ 100% of purchase price of four 2/ 260 kg, CFAF 187/kg, 5% mortality. 2/ 334 kg, CFAF 209/kg (600 grams young sheep. 3/ 180 kg, CFAF 187/kg. per day liveweight gain over 2/ 45 kg/head, CFAF 250/kg. / 11% per year, 18 months. 140 days). 3/ 25 kg/head, CFAF 220/kg. 3/ 250 kg, CFAF 187/kg. 4/ 360 kg, CFAF 30/kg. 4/ 140 kg, CFAF 16/kg. 5/ 11%, 12 months. 5/ 140 kg, CFAF 30/kg. 6/ Excluding 6% mortality risk, but 6/ 210 kg, CFAF 15/kg, assuming sickly animals are slaughtered 1.5 kg/day bought-in, remainder prior to death and most of the being farm by-products, capital is recovered. 7/ 11%, 6 months. 8/ Excluding 2% mortality risk, but sickly animals are slaughtered prior to death and most of the capital is recovered. NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Government Cash Flow 1/ Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 19 Year 20 ---------------------------------------------(CFAF Million)- A. Inflow IDA Disbursements / 12 396 704 704 594 110 - - - - - - Pastoralists: Drugs and Feed Supplements 1/ 31 43 63 109 175 274 284 287 291 294 306 310 311 Pastoral Well Construction and Maintenance / 2 2 2 5 - - - - - - - - - Additional Livestock Revenues Export Taxes / 1 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 Other Revenues 6/ - 3 6 9 12 14 15 17 18 19 17 17 68 Total Inflow 166 445 777 831 786 403 304 309 314 318 327 329 381 B. Outflow Project Financial Costs 7/ 547 782 674 788 474 Less: Credit Schemes 33 61 96 110 147 Plus: Non-incremental Drugs and Feed Supplements - 43 63 109 175 Net project cost 8/ 514 764 641 787 502 433 466 455 490 491 426 381 379 IDA Debt Service 1 4 9 15 19 20 20 20 20 20 45 44 44 Total Outflow 515 768 650 802 521 453 486 475 510 511 471 425 423 C. Sur s (Deficit) Annual (349) (323) 127 29 265 (50) (182) (166) (196) (195) (144) (96) (42) Cumulative (349) (672) (545) (516) (251) (301) (483) (649) (845) (1,038) (1,732) (2,083) (2,125) 1/ Current prices through Year 5 and constant prices thereafter. Excluding credit schemes inputs, financed separately or negligible, and revolving fund operations, food supply activity, pastoral centers (except initial funding thereof), because they cancelled out each year. 2/ See Annex 2, Table 3. / Beginning Year 6, includes full costs of all animal health inputs. / 5% contribution to both construction and maintenance costs (the latter being 3% of the former each year. bezinning sixth year after -nstruction date). / FAF 2,000/cattle, 600/sheep, Overall estimated at CFAF 60/TAU. 6 Patents, export licences, butcher's income tax, etc... Conservatively estimated at .005% of additionnal offtake value (Year 1, 5, l0, 15, 20) and prorated in-between 4 Figure for Year 20 includes netting out of initial funding of rcyving fund operations, food supply, pastoral centers, including respective price contingencies, & 2 development period. a 7/ See Annex 2, Table 1. - X / Year 6 and thereafter: based on economic costs, updated to PYS prices, excluding application of standard conversion factor and including full costs of vehicles, re cropping zone, scaled down however in line with reduced activity rate of such vehicles (Year 6-10: S0%; Year 11-15: 25%; Year 16-20: 0%). ANNEX 3 - 47 - Page 1 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT Related Documents and Data Available in the Project File A. Selected Reports and Studies Relating to the Project A.1 Livestock Development Project in Maradi and Zinder Provinces, preparation report by Messrs. Levif, Tacher and Marsan, July 1977 (in French); A.2 Livestock Development in Diffa Province, second preparation report by senior Livestock Department staff, March 1978 (in French); A.3 Report on the Technical Feasibility of the Pastoral Unit Concept in Niger, study financed by PPF in August-September 1978, by Messrs. Dulieu and Clanet (main authors), December 1978 (in French). B. Working Papers B.1 Social Analysis B.2 Animal Health, Productivity, Credit and Marketing (in French) B.3 Herd Models (in French) B.4 Water Resources and Use (in French) B.5 Project Costs B.6 Economic Analysis  NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE Year 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 ACTIVITIES Project Year Project Year 1 Project Year 2 Project Year 3 Project Year 4 Project Year 5 Quarters 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Ethonoveteinariy Inventory Drugs aml Feed Supplement Supply Cooling Equipment New Smallstock Vaccinations Identification of Pastoral Units Constitution of Associations of Pastoralists Coostructiou of Stock Watering Points Construction of Pastoral Centers Construction of Pastoral Veterinary Posts Credit Breeding Backgrounding Construction of Veterinary Posts and Yards Construction of Markets Construction of Abattoirs Rehabiliration of Slaughter Slabs Construction of Stock Routes Credit Cattle Fattening I Sheep Fattening Training in Paraveterirary Work Staff Workers Traiing in Associations of Pastoralists Staff Pastoralists Training of Paramedical Workers Aud it Prel3aration of a Follom-iip Protect World Bank 19078 NIGER LIVESTOCK PROJECT ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT Ministrytv ofoRouratoDveorypent MiityoftnneMiityofPann tro Priolanio -t f:a.M. Don of Agneu. ture,iDOdonnurADeogue Fotesry.an Engineeing L aIstock Department - -- - - - - -- -- - - TudgDeartnntmrsrynep-rme Provincial Technicag Comnittees Projet Matgemnt Unit ,. .. . Projact Account P-c. i~tock PerAnim.1 HCbnryr Patrl AcOtitsC cerACd Odoo tojot~ utto otonig rS-ti. da. oectBooion AdMikd' WHatlth mOPVN Dintrict Li-etock Officers SCNCA _UNCC 0OFEDES mnCity Developmoent Veterinar Post Stoff tOther Provincial Officeas Exi,ting Activitiet Pnoject Act"nities Vaccination Campaigns Drug and Fed Sales [ Prom tion of Drus Past.a Utt MProtnt Veterinar inspections Smat,ock V-ccnaton and Fead Assoc.tions of imAccountin Maket Statilstics Traning of Pa.M Guality of Advice P~scralist Min.ac C,olle Fattening AdviceV vet-inar Worker, mn Fatten,ng mStok W,","ing Procedue Work 0xen Adve Ser-ices to Asociat,ons Effecti- .f Ptints -k centr Poulotr Prooatinn . Pastalists B.yond Vaccination Campaign, PastoIa4 c nte.s U Ad.o Fllo...p Go.atmprovementCOPastoral Centers .An.ia M,bandry OCdit lor rCattle F.ning AdvJ Adve to AH Brding and Shveep,Fattening Advwc, Associationsof B»ckgrounding Manning New Veterina,y P,ala,t oSenstiing Liwetck Po.t. Wn M.rkets D"epamn staiff. A-octi.ns of Pastor,alist s and Cr-dit 2ma-ari Proince.Lno uhrt 31 Pnmar,ty l) Z,mder Provnce 3M Projact 4EDF), Ib) Range - • . .Apoaof Annua Projec Budge. Managemaent ProjPe (USAID) in part of Marad, Provmnce and (cl ............rlow-of Govenme,nt Share,- Projact F in.ncing D11f,, Province D-vIoMent Prolect (CIDA). .. I. -..DA Wnthdrawa Appicmions Wcrld Bank --19077 IBRD 13722 '1 1'2' l 1 JULY 1978 Kl A-I R LIVESTOCK PROJECT A G A D E Z LEGAL PASTORAL ZONE NEW VETERINARYPOSTS. Oth~er waim,al ealtfluclltie, to be ~AGADEz - -I dearmined st 3 locadio, s i ihe eAst of Diff, Proince A - NEW SMALLABATTOIRS 5 OCATIONSTOBE DETERMINED IN THE PASTORAL ZONE VETERIAY POSTS MAlNMARKETS o no 100 160 200SECONDARY MAR KETS I - ~~KILOMETERS SOKRUE TARRED ROADS D l F F A ------ LATERITE ROADS --- TRACKS Sd ·---AIRPORTS - N C ® PROVINCIAL CAP1TALS C H A D ° DISTRICT CAPITALS O ADMINISTRATIVE POSTS O OTHER TOWNS - -.00- ISOHYETS X RIVERS i oz MARADI 'VERS PROVINCIAL BOUNDARIES 40 ad..1 a I 01IIEyhaA Gore - NTERNATlONAL BOUNDARIES ....~- -- - z.sie- . ZIND irni- ,.d. A6Sab, 0 Gudoumaria Nk.nni jzE- 1 6 C, Nra un MARADI Agei, G ta ye GyKgén - = ---- .FF LGERIA 1 Dan0URITANIA maL M A Ll -n -(NG E1:4/ NdjmGr INEA R - de~~~~~~~~~ 1 nns tpvot fhd ne COAST HN 68 Kan 10p 124 \O