Somalia - Agricultural Extension and Farm Management Training Project

Document of F i LV The World Bank FILE buri FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2460-so REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON PROPOSED CREDITS TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR AN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND. FARM MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROJECT April 25, 1979 This document bas rsicted distibution and may be used by recipients only In the performance of their ofAcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be discled witboat World Bank authorizntion.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (CY 1978, and March 1979) Currency Unit = Somali Shillings (So.Sh) = 100 cents So. Sh. 1.00 = US$ 0.1589 US$ 1.00 = So. Sh. 6.295 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) = 10,000 m - 2.47 acres 2 1 square kilometer (km ) = 100 ha = 0.39 sq. miles 1 metric ton (mt) = 1,000 kg = 2,204 lbs GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS ADC - Agricultural Development Corporation ADF - African Development Fund CSD - Central Statistical Department EEC - European Economic Community ETC - Extension Training Center EMAS - Farm Management Advisory Service FMETC - Farm Management and Extension Training Center NES - National Extension Service PMU - Project Management Unit SDB - Somali Development Bank WDA - Water Development Agency FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SOMALIA - AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND FARM MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: Somali Democratic Republic Beneficiary: Ministry of Agriculture Amount: US$10.5 million (IDA); and US$1.5 million (EEC Special Action Credit) Terms: Standard IDA (for both Credits) Project Description: The Project would, over a period of five years, strengthen the Agricultural Exten,sion Service and establish a Farm Management Advisory Service, both of which would bring essential know how to the farm level. The Project would directly benefit the 195,000 farm families engaged in crop production, as well as the farm workers working on state and cooperative farms. The Project would also contribute towards manpower development and income distribution. The success of the Project would depend to a great extent on adequate coordination between the Extension and Farm Management Services, research, input supply agencies and marketing organizations. Estimated Project Cost: US$ Million Z of Project Component Local Cost Foreign Cost Total Cost Total Project Management Unit 1.1 2.6 3. 7 11.4 Farm Management and Extension Training Center 1. 8 3. 8 5.6 17.3 National Extension Service 4.3 4.4 &7 26.9 Farm Management Advisory Service (excluding DSF) 0.3 1.1 1.4 4.3 Demonstration State Farm 1. 1 2. 0 3. 1 9.6 Agricultural Secondary School 0.1 1.2 1.3 4.0 Central Statistical Department 0.2 0.9 1.1 3.4 Physical Contingencies 0.4 0. 7 1.1 3.4 Price Contingencies 2.4 4.0 6.4 19.7 Total Costs 11.7 20.7 32.4 100.0 This documient has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of theit ofhcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be discbosed without World Bank authorization.  Financing Plan: Source Amount US$ Million % of Total IDA 10.5 32.4 EEC (Special Action Account) 1.5 4.6 USAID 7.6 23.5 ADF 8.9 27.5 Government 3.9 12.0 Total 32.4 100.0 Estimated Disbursements: US$ Million 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 IDA Annual 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.6 Cumulative 0.5 2.4 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.5 EEC Annual 0.8 0.7 Cumulative 0.8 1.5 Rate of Return: 27% for the National Extension Service. 39% for the Farm Management Advisory Service. Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 2170-SO, dated April 12, 1979.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON PROPOSED CREDITS TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR AN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND FARM tANAGEMENT TRAINING PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on two proposed Credits to the Somali Democratic Republic for the equivalent of US$12.0 mil- lion on standard IDA terms to help finance the Agricultural Extension and Farm Management Training Project. One credit of US$10.5 million would be made from IDA resources; a second credit of about US$1.5 million equivalent would be made from the EEC Special Action Account administered by the Association in accordance with the terms of the Agreement of Mlay 2, 1978, between the Association and the European Economic Community. Additional financing will be obtained from the African Development Fund (about US$8.9 million equivalent) and the USAID (about US$7.6 million) on concessionary terms. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A Country Economic Memorandum (Report No. 2240-SO) was distributed to the Executive Directors in January, 1979. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. 3. The Somali Democratic Republic gained its independence in 1960 and the present Government came into power in 1969. In 1976, a political party, the Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party, was formed and became the main political institution. At present, the country is still suffering from the hostilities in the border areas in the Ogaden, and the phasing-out of Soviet aid and technical assistance in 1977. This, combined with large- scale'migration of Somali workers to the Middle East, has led the Government to re-examine its development strategy. Although no major new strategy has yet emerged, some cautious steps tending to increase the role of market forces in the economy have been taken. 4. Somalia is a large country with a 3000 kilometer coastline; its land mass; varies from a hot and arid coastal plain, to rugged mountains, and plateaux, and lowlands of varying fertility and rainfall. Only 13% of the land is said to be arable, and with water the limiting constraint, only a small fra,ction of this potentially arable land is, in fact, cultivated. Of a total population of approximately 3.7 million, about two-thirds are nomads and semi-nomads, who depend on livestock for their livelihood and about 20-25% are farmers cultivating land along the Juba and Shebelli rivers and in the higher-raLinfall Bay and North-west regions. The existence of several minerals has been confirmed but with exploration still in its early stages, commercial viability remains to be proved. Short of other known resources, Somalia's prospects center on agricultural and livestock development in which progress will depend upon careful management of scarce land and water resources. 1/ This section is the same as that of the Central Rangelands Project.  -2- The small monetary sector of the economy provides only limited opportunities for employment. Apart from the traditional export of livestock, commercial agriculture is mainly centered on the production and export of bananas, in which foreign concession holders are still important, and the production of sugar for the domestic market. The expansion of manufacturing and other service sectors of the economy is limited by the small size of the domestic market, poor infrastructure, and the shortage of capital and entre- preneurial experience. IDA staff estimate that about 70% of the population live at subsistence levels of about US$200-250 per family of five. Social services are still very inadequate, the primary school enrollment ratio (at about 34% in 1977), though considerably higher than five years ago, re- mains relatively low. There is little economic data on Somalia. Even basic figures such as GNP, population, number of livestock, or output of major agricultural crops are only rough estimates. With a per capita income in the order of US$110 in 1977, the UN classifies Somalia as one of the least developed countries. Development Strategy 6. Since 1970 the Government has adhered to a program of "scientific socialism", emphasizing egalitarianism and social justice, development through the public sector, nationalization of certain foreign enterprises, and the formation of cooperatives. While the Government has always stated that there is room for private initiative in Somalia, and several privately financed projects have been implemented, the main emphasis has been given to develop- ment of the public sector. Public ownership and management have expanded through nationalization, creation, and growth of enterprises. The parastatal sector now includes more than 50 autonomous agencies that have eliminated private enterprises in wholesale trade and banking while taking a major share in manufacturing. The Five-Year Development Plan 1974-78 (FYDP) was essentially a public investment program that allowed for a few small private ventures. Overall Plan implementation reached for about 60% of the initial allocation, but this figure must be considered indicative, rather than precise. Although it provided a needed impetus to investment in the economy, the Plan does not seem to have played a major role in the allocative process. Despite the Government's initial intentions, industry and mining, and infrastructure have received more public investment than agriculture. At the same time, public enterprises have expanded without firm Government control, owing to a large extent to the inadequacies of monitoring instruments. 7. Since the bulk of the population is engaged in herding or in sub- sistence farming, a development strategy for Somalia must be based on agri- culture and livestock resources. The major development goals of the Somali Government include self-sufficiency in food grains, the partial substitution of other food imports (oils, rice) and improvement of the lot of the tradi- tional nomadic herdsmen through settlement programs and improvements in livestock production and marketing facilities. The current emphasis on irrigated agriculture is meant to make the country less dependent on the erratic pattern of rainfall, and assure more stable and predictable increases  in output. However, rainfed agriculture which occupies the largest number of farm families is also being assisted. Improvements in livestock production and marketing are being promoted together with projects aiming at the reha- bilitation of the rangelands. 8. Somalia has made considerable progress in meeting some basic needs; a program of literacy and primary education has had noticeable results, and an effective system of food supply has been established. In other areas of the social sectors, however, the record is less impressive, particularly in water supply, sanitation, and health where services frequently seem to benefit mainly the urban population. On the other hand, economic growth has been rather slow, making it difficult for Somalia to pursue its basic needs poli- cies vigorously. The 1979-81 Plan bases its development of industry on the processing of domestic raw materials to substitute for imports, although there are a few rather large investments which do not conform to this policy. Finally, thLe Government places emphasis on developing infrastructure, espe- cially tranLsportation and communications. Economic Performance, Problems, and Sectoral Developments 9. The 1974-78 Five-Year Plan has been revised several times but remained overambitious with respect to both financial and implementation capacities. Financial implementation reached about 60%, 55%, 77% and 73% of the targets in the first four years. However, the absence of adequate monitoring and evaluation makes it impossible to determine the economic impact of these expenditures. In real terms, annual investment has probably been increasing and what was an essentially financial constraint in 1973-74 had, by 1976, turned into an implementation constraint which has worsened recently as a result of the exodus of skilled Somalis to the neighboring oil-exporting countries (see below, para 10). Many incomplete projects from the 1974-78 Plan are therefore included in a Three-Year Development Plan, 1979-81, unider which investment of So.Sh. 5.7 billion (of which So.Sh. 3.4 billion are carry-ove-rs) is contemplated. 10. About 100,000 Somalis have migrated to work in the neighboring oil-export:ing states and their total earnings equal about ten times the total domestic value added in Somalia's modern sector. Labor migration has been a phenomenon that the Government neither organizes nor controls, and its magni- tude is such that the drain of skills and the inflow of private funds may affect the smooth functioning of a publicly-controlled economy. This migra- tion is seriously depleting Somalia's already low stocks of qualified and skilled manpower, thereby reducing the absorptive capacity of the country and weakening its institutions. Migrant remittances have financed imports of about US$5,0 million in 1977, roughly equivalent to Somalia's exports of live- stock (75% of total export value). This import trade consists mostly of basic consumers' goods (foods, textiles, some durables); to a certain extent, however, t'hese remittances could be mobilized to finance investment. At present, t'here are few incentives and opportunities for private capital to engage in productive investment - and this partly explains why remittances  - 4 - fi -e consumption goous. There is no comprehensive public policy on remit- tances, though IDA staff and the Government are discussing measures for formulation of a suitable policy for attracting the remittances into produc- tive investments in Somalia. 11. Budgetary policies have generally been conservative and efforts have been made to mobilize resources through taxation. Although the drought and the border problems have adversely affected the Government's budget, the external grants they attracted have considerably eased their financial impact. However, expenditures on basic needs and defense have risen so much that the current budget fell into deficit in 1977 (by So.Sh. 2.5 million) for the first time since 1971. The border problems of 1977 may only have accelerated an outcome that was already visible. In fact, the supply of government services nationwide, and the recurrent cost implications of recent public investments and policies, especially in productive services (such as agricul- tural extension) and basic needs (such as education, health and drinking water) will make it increasingly difficult for the budget to generate savings. 12. The external financial constraint is mainly the result of slow growing exports, with relatively stable imports over the past three years. The structure of the balance of payments in 1977 was essentially similar to that of previous years, with low exports equivalent to US$71.3 million, accounting for only about 40% of imports. The large trade deficit was more than compensated for by transfers (US$108.0 million) and capital inflows (US$64.2 million). Exports declined by about 12% in 1977 mainly on account of bananas, the second most important export item. The drop in banana exports resulted partly from a marketing dispute in the Middle East. Decreased activity in fields such as fish and meat canning, formerly assisted by the Soviet Union, also contributed to declining exports. Livestock exports have stagnated during the past three years largely because of the 1974-75 drought, but early indications for 1978 suggest a resumption of growth (in volume) together with satisfactory price developments. 13. Slow growing exports and a low level of domestic savings, both attributable to the country's poverty, have made external assistance most important in the financing of development. Somalia joined the Arab League in 1974 and mounted a major effort to attract funds from the Arab petroleum exporting countries. The large inflows of external capital and transfers from 1975 onward indicate that the effort has been successful. Due to political events, the source of foreign assistance has recently changed from the social- ist countries (except for China which maintains a large program) towards Arab bilateral and multilateral institutions (continuing the trend started in 1975) and Western countries, several of which (the EEC, FRG and Italy) have had sub- stantial assistance programs for a number of years. The public external debt of Somalia outstanding and disbursed as of December 1977 was approximately US$399 million, and although a large share is on fairly soft terms, the debt service ratio has increased from 3.4% in 1972 to about 5.5% in 1977. 14. In summary, the Government's record over the past few years has been mixed, but the country's poverty is such that even partial successes must be  -5 - commended. The slow development of agriculture in a mostly nomadic society, the shortage of qualified manpower, the difficulties of organizing and manag- ing an efficient public sector, and the limitation of financial resources can all be imputed to the country's limited endowment and to its human and natural constraints. The Government has attempted and partially succeeded in alleviating some of these constraints. It has met some of the basic needs. It has also laid a national basis for growth in manufacturing together with an initial system of economic and physical infrastructure, though growth in income, exports, and imports has been rather slow. The Government may want, however, to consider adapting its development strategy to an economic environ- ment that has changed over the last few years. 15. As regards future policies, greater emphasis should be given to economic growth; this would imply directing more investments towards produc- tive activities, particularly agriculture and small-scale industry. The mobilization of resources to this end should be sought through better manage- ment of public enterprises, a more useful role for the skills and resources acquired by migrants, and a broadened capacity to absorb external capital. In addition, many observers suggest that the Government may be overextending itself. In the interest of economic growth, somewhat better opportunities and greater incentives ought to be given to private investors. 16. Somalia's export prospects are rather poor because of the concentra- tion on two primary products -- livestock and bananas -- both of which face problems in expanding production in the long run. Livestock is subject to cyclical droughts which decrease export supplies. Banana exports have fallen because of both supply (drought, floods, poor agricultural practices) and demand (increasing competition from multinationals in both Italy and the Middle East) problems, but production could recuperate within two years. Diversification efforts have been attempted with hides, skins, and fisheries with limited success and even dimmer prospects now that Soviet technical assistance, dominant in these three activities, has been wound up. Therefore, in view of the country's poverty and uncertain export prospects, assistance should be provided on the softest terms possible and contain provisions for local currency financing. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SOMALIA 1/ 17. Starting in 1965 IDA has made 17 Credits totalling about US$112 million, of which about 38% have been made for transportation development, including c:onstruction of three trunk roads and a new deepwater port and associated extensions at Mogadishu. IDA Credits were also made for live- stock development in FY74, for a development finance company project in FY77, and for education in FY71, FY75 and FY78. Lending for agriculture commenced iLn FY76 with two Credits for a Drought Rehabilitation Project and a North-West Region Agricultural Development Project. A Credit for 1/ This section is the same as the Central Rangeland Development Project.  - 6 - de- 1-pment of water supply in Mogadishu and a technical assistance Credit for project preparation were approved in FY78. No Bank loan or IFC invest- ment has been made to Somalia. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA Credits as of December 31, 1978 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. Performance on ongoing projects generally has been satisfactory. However, as the pace of development continues to rise, absorptive capacity constraints are becoming increasingly evident, especially in the field of agriculture where projects are rather complex and implementation experience is limited. Therefore, in preparing and appraising new projects, particularly close attention will have to be paid to implementation capacity and the adoption of measures to ease this constraint when necessary. To overcome the more pervasive problems of project implementation which are common in the agriculture sector, the Governmet is establishing a Project Implementation Unit which would strengthen the capacity for project implementation consider- ably by providing monitoring and logistical support to the projects, including assistance in procurement and recruitment of consultants. 19. We plan to concentrate our future efforts on the country's directly productive sectors, agriculture and livestock, and also on education and transportation. While agriculture and livestock offer potential for develop- ment, most rural development activities are only at the beginning stage. Mdreover, agricultural development in Somalia is particularly difficult because most of the people in rural areas are nomadic. For these reasons, we plan that much of our future lending will be in the agriculture and live- stock sectors, and this will be complemented with near equal attention on education. We are seeking Board approval for a Central Rangelands Development Project, and in the near future we intend to seek approval for an agricultural project for the Bay Region. We have also started to assist the Government in preparation of a National Livestock Marketing Project. In order to increase our knowledge of the agricultural sector, we plan to carry out a review of this important sector in the near future. In addition to these sectors, we plan to support the Government's industrial development efforts (and assist in the formulation of an industrial development policy) through our country economic work and future DFC projects. We also plan to continue assistance to the water supply sector. 20. Somalia's statistical service lacks the capacity to fulfill the data needs of development programs, including the identification and formulation of suitable projects. In the proposed Project, we plan to strengthen the Central Department of Statistics in the State Planning Commission through provision of technical assistance and training of Somali staff. 21. To facilitate the development and implementation of the Associa- tion's growing operational program in Somalia, we have established a one-man resident mission which facilitates the smooth day-to-day working relationship and assists in coordination of the cofinancing efforts.  PART III - THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR Production Environment 22. Somalia is heavily dependent on agriculture for its economic devel- opment. With the exception of commercially produced bananas and sugar cane, production tends to be subsistance oriented. Over 8 million ha or 13% of the land area in Somalia, have been estimated as potentially suitable for crop production, but only about 0.7 million hectares or 1% of the total area are cultivated. Rainfed agriculture covers around 540,000 ha. In addition, around 50,000 ha. are under controlled irrigation, and around 110,000 ha. are under uncontrolled irrigation. 23. Crop production in Somalia engages about 195,000 families, most of them in rainfed farming. Approximately two-thirds of the population is engaged in livestock production which is Somalia's principal economic activity. Following the 1973-75 drought, the Government is attempting to expand irri- gation and thereby reduce the impact of future droughts. Domestic output, which had declined sharply as a result of the drought, has improved consi- derably, but pre-drought levels of production have not yet been reached. 24. Sorghum, maize and sesame are the three principal crops in Somalia, accounting for 90% of the cultivated area. Bananas, sugar cane, vegetables and fruit, as well as small amounts of groundnuts, sesame, cotton and pulses, are grown under irrigation. State farms growing maize, rice and other irrigated crops are slowly gaining importance. 25. Cereal consumption in the country is around 350,000 tons per year, of which about 15-30% has to be imported. There is considerable scope to increase the cultivated area both for rainfed and irrigated crops. Most importantly, however, there is ample room for increased productivity without substantial additional inputs and with reliance on the present level of know-how. In rainfed agriculture, the ineffectiveness of the extension service, and in irrigated agriculture the lack of technical know-how and the absence of management skills, are major impediments to the realization of an increase in productivity. Agricultural Policies and Services 26. The severe drought of 1973-1975 disrupted the Somali economy and forced the Government to redirect the country's development priorities, particularly in agriculture, to achieve self-sufficiency. Somalia aims at self-sufficiency in major food commodities through an expansion of the area under cultivation and through gains in productivity. The main elements to achieve this objective are increased technical assistance to agriculture, soil conservation, better water management and irrigation intensification, and progressive transition from nomadism to settled farming. Irrigation develop- ment is intended as a shield against future weather vagaries affecting crops.  - 8 - t the other hand, range conservation and management would protect livestock against future prolonged drought. The livestock development strategy em- phasizes disease control measures, improvement of the marketing system and improvement of herd productivity through better range and animal management. 27. The 1974-78 development program reserved 29% of planned investments to the crop production sub-sector. It was aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in sorghum, maize, oilseeds, cotton and sugar, and a partial import substitu- tion for rice and wheat. This was to be achieved mainly through accelerated development of state farms and cooperatives and intensification of Government services to farmers. Nearly four-fifths of planned investments in agriculture were allocated to irrigation development for a reliable food supply, despite the high investment costs. The major factor slowing Government efforts has been the lack of trained manpower at all levels. 28. Prices of major crops are controlled by the Government at all market levels. Government price policy is generally favorable to farmers. However, price adjustments tend to lag because of lack of information. Government policy has been to encourage the use of modern production inputs. These inputs have to be imported and are often not only exempted from duties, but are also subsidized. Subsidies may be desirable at this stage of development as a means of getting farmers familiarized with new techniques. However, as the use of these inputs becomes widespread, the burden on the Government's bqdget will increase. The Association will maintain the dialogue with Govern- ment on this issue. 29. Crop research is currently being carried out almost exclusively at the Central Agricultural Research Station (CARS) at Afgoi, under the supervi- sion of the Director of the Agricultural Research Institute (part of the Ministry of Agriculture). Three regional research stations are being developed in the major ecological zones at Gelib, Bonka and Aburein. Although some work has been done, there is a great need for a long range research program, start- ing with adaptive work and building up gradually towards a more basic research program. Cost savings and early results could be achieved by making use of knowledge available in other countries and at international research centers. 30. Government programs related to crop production are the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture. The Ministry is assisted by parastatal and public agencies - the Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC), the National Tractor Hiring Agency (ONAT), the Somali Development Bank (SDB), and the Water Development Agency (WDA). All agencies suffer from a shortage of trained staff both at headquarters and in the field. In an attempt to facilitate its access to farmers, the Ministry of Agriculture has strongly supported the development of cooperatives. These are expected to become a major vehicle for the transfer of knowledge to farmers. In addition, cooperatives are also expected to provide access to the market at an affordable cost for small-scale producers. Agricultural Extension and Farm Management Services 31. The extension service is headed by the Director of the Production and Extension Department who reports to the Director-General of the Ministry  of Agriculture. At the regional level, this department is headed by a Regional Agricultural Superintendent working under the Regional Agricultural Coordinator. At the district level, there is an Extension Officer, a Plant Protection Officer, a Land and Water Officer and a Cooperative Officer. These district officers work under a District Agricultural Officer. Provision is also made for Agricultural Instructors for field work. However, except for a few Cooperative Instructors, the posts are vacant. There is thus no effective field service beyond the district office. The Production and Extension Department is also in charge of the State Farms Production Service, Seed Multiplication Service, Credit Service and Training Services. The majority of extension personnel at regional and district levels have had eight years of schooling, but their only agricultural training has consisted of short in-service training courses. Headquarters staff and Regional Coordinators are a mixture of university and secondary school graduates and of field trained staff. 32. The State Farms Production Service administers the state farms. The state farms cover about 50,000 ha. or over one-half of the total area farmed in large-scale production units. The remaining area consists of the "crash program" farms, the settlement development farms, other large-scale farms and cooperative! farms. All large-scale production units are administered by Government appointed staff, often with no technical background, and in most cases with no managerial skills. Large-scale production units have been created without taking into account the availability of qualified people to run them. M1ajor Constraints to Increased Agricultural Production 33. Tere are a number of constraints to increased agricultural production some of which have been mentioned in the previous paragraphs. There is a general shortage of trained extension staff and a complete lack of extension agents at the field level. Technical guidance as well as management assistance is needed not only by small holder farmes but by large scale production units, including state farms, group farming cooperatives, settlement farms, "Crash Program" farms and state operated seed farms. The national and regional programs and facilities for agricultural research need strengthening and effective coordination between research and extension needs to be established. Finally, infrastructural facilities are inadequate for making inputs like fertilizers, improved seeds,pesticides and credit available to the farmers. Bank Group Assistance in the Agricultural Sector 34. As indicated in Part II of this report, we have had limited experi- ence in the field of agriculture in Somalia. Bank Group assistance to the agricultural sector in Somalia started with the Trans-Juba Livestock Project (IDA Credit 462-SO) in FY74 followed by two Credits in FY76, Drought Rehabili- tation Project (IDA Credit 623-SO) and the Northwest Region Agricultural Development Project (IDA Credit 635-SO). As noted above (para. 19) in addi- tion to the proposed Project and the Central Rangelands Development Project, a Bay Region Agriculture Project is also under consideration. The Bank is also assisting the preparation of a Livestock Marketing Project.  - 10 - 3- Implementatio!i of agricultural projects has met with difficulties mair!ly due to the scarcity of trained manpower. The scarcity of manpower has become more critical due to the continued exodus of Somalis to the neighbori;ng petroleum exporting countries. In response to these problems, several steps have been taken to ease implementation constraints. For example, the future projects are being designed with a large provision of technical assistance. Emphasis is placed on institution building by providing comprehensive training programs in the projects. The proposed Project would make an important con- tribution to institution building by training managers, administrators, and extension agents. The Livestock Marketing Project would deal with the organ- ization of national livestock marketing service which would be an important back up activity for the Trans-Juba Livestock Project, the Northern Rangelands Development Project, as well as for the proposed Central Rangelands Development Project. The design of the proposed Fourth Education Project would also emphasize manpower development both for the short-term by training specialists, as well as for long-term by improving the quality of education. To overcome the more pervasive problems of project implementation which are common in the agricultural sector such as hiring of consultants, procurement of equipment and monitoring of project implementation, a Project Implementation Unit is being set up in the State Planning Commission with advise and assistance from the Bank, which would strengthen the capacity for project implementation considerably. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 36. A report entitled "Staff Appraisal Report, Agricultural Extension and Farm Management Training Project" (No. 2170-SO) dated April 12, 1979 is being distributed separately. A Credit and Project Summary appears at the beginning of this report and a Supplementary Project Data Sheet is given in Annex III. The Project was prepared by the Government with the assist- ance of the Bank's Regional Mission for Eastern Africa, and appraised by an IDA mission in January 1978. Negotiations were held in Washington, D. C. from March 20 to March 23, 1979. The Somali Delegation was headed by Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud, Chairman of the National Economic Committee. Project Objective 37. The proposed Project would provide technical assistance, strengthen the Extension Service, develop a national research strategy and establish a Farm Management Advisory Service which would bring the essential knowledge to the farm level. The Project would also provide for the training of staff who would be expected to identify the farmers needs and to communicate them to those who make production decisions. The aim of this Project is to establish a solid basis for the progressive build up of operational and efficient extension and farm management services in Somalia. The emphasis is on train- ing and institution building. This training would take place at the proposed Farm Management and Extension Training Center to be located at Afgoi and at two of the existing Extension Training Centers at Jannale and Bonka.  - 11 - Project Description 38. Specifically, the Project would provide for: (a) I'he establishment of a Farm Management and Extension Training Center (FMETC) at Afgoi to provide practical pre-service training for farm managers, assistant managers and field managers, and for regional and district level extension staff reaching out for small farmers. Development and operation of the Center would include: a 60 ha training f'arm, library, classrooms, and a dormitory, needed for training. The Government's provision of a suitable 60 ha. training farm to FMETC would be a condition of Credit effectiveness (Development Credit Agreement, Section 5.01(a)); (b) The strengthening of the National Extension Service (NES) through the introduction of an extension methodology with emphasis on continuous training given to extension personnel and regular contact with farmers. The Project would provide for the upgrading of two Farmers' Training Centers, which would be converted into Extension Training Centers (ETC's); (c) The establishment of a Farm Management Advisory Service (FMAS) to provide field back-up to existing and newly trained farm managers, and advise the Government on large scale farming and related issues. A 400 ha. state farm at Jannale would be rehabilitated to become a Demonstration State Farm (DSF). The Government's provision of the 400 ha. Demonstration State Farm at Jannale to FMAS and satisfactory arrangements for FMAS to have access to the other two State Farms at Jannale would be a condition of Credit effectiveness (Development Credit Agreement, Section 5.01(a)). Farm Manage- ment Advisory Service would also strengthen the management of the two other state farms in the vicinity of Jannale. These other State Farms, along with the Demonstration State Farm, would be used by the Farm Management and Extension Training Center students during the field internship stage of their training; (d) A Project Management Unit, which would be responsible for project implementation, for procurement of project related goods and services and for monitoring its progress and evaluating its results; (e) The strengthening of the Agricultural Secondary School at Afgoi through provision of teachers and training equipment; (f) Training abroad, which would cover: (i) post-graduate training abroad for 38 faculty graduates; (ii) three to six week trips abroad for senior Ministry of Agriculture personnel (6 man-months); (iii) study trips of at least  - 12 - 3 months duration for extension and farm management field technical staff (21 man-months); and (iv) about 3 months study trips for district extension officers (192 man- months); (g) Developing a Master Plan for strengthening the National Agricultural Research System and its links with Extension; and (h) The strengthening of the Central Statistical Department in the State Planning Commission through technical assistance and training of Somali staff and setting the stage for a National Statistical Development Program. Project Implementation 39. The Project would be carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture, except the statistics component which would be executed by the Planning Commission as explained below. Project Management Unit (PMU) 40. A Project Management Unit would be established at Afgoi. It would consist of a Somali Project Director, an internationally recruited Project Technical Manager, an internationally recruited Financial Controller and their support staff on terms of reference and qualifications satisfactory to the Association (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.01(b)). The Project Technical Manager would be responsible to the Project Director. He would be the leader of the team of internationally recruited staff and would assume overall responsibility for assisting the Project Director in coordinating the implementation of the Project. The Financial Controller would be responsible to the Project Director. He would assist the Project Technical Manager and would assist him in overseeing the procurement of Project related goods and services. He would be responsible for establishing a system of strict financial control and accountability for the constituent units of the Project. The Project Management Unit would require the services of a procurement agency to assist in drawing up specifications, preparing tender documents and ana- lyzing bids. The PMU would also require the services of construction special- ist to supervise the implementation of civil works on its behalf. Establish- ment of the Project Management Unit and appointment of a procurement agency and consultant to assist PMU with procurement and supervision of construction would be additional conditions of Credit effectiveness (Development Credit Agreement, Section 5.01 (c) and (d)). 41. The Monitoring and Evaluation Section would be a new addition to the present structure of the Department of Production and Extension. It would be headed by an experienced Agricultural Economist. He would be responsible to the Project Technical Manager. The data collection unit and the data process- ing unit would come under his authority.  - 13 - 42. The Government would submit annual and semi-annual Project progress reports to the financing agencies. Within six months of the completion of disbursements under the IDA Project, the Government would prepare and submit to IDA a completion report on the implementation of the Project. This report would include actual costs, benefits and contribution of the Project towards the accomplishment of the country's development objectives (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.11(c)). The Farm MarLagement and Extension Training Center (FMETC) 43. The Farm Management and Extension Training Center would be headed by an internationally recruited Agricultural Training Specialist (Principal). He would be responsible to the Project Director through the Project Technical Manager, and would have a Somali deputy. The Principal would be responsible for curricula, the programming and supervision of training. He would also be responsible for establishing and maintaining strong professional links with the neighboring agricultural training institutions, agricultural research centers, the National Extension Service and the Farm Management Advisory Service. Tlhe teaching staff at the Farm Management and Extension Training Center would come under his immediate authority. The Farm Management Advisory Service (FMAS) 44. The Farm Management Advisory Service would be a new unit. It would be headed by an internationally recruited experienced Farm Economist, who would be responsible to the Project Director through the Project Technical Manager. He would be assisted by the internationally recruited manager of the Demonstration State Farm, by an internationally recruited farm management specialist, and by Somali staff. The Service would have its headquarters in Afgoi, adjacent to the National Extension Service and the Farm Management and Extension Training Center. It would provide field back-up for farm managers and advice to the Ministry of Agriculture regarding large-scale farms. The Farm Mlanagement Advisory Service would be..responsible for establishing and running the 400 ha. Demonstration State Farm at Jannale. It would also strengthen the management of two other state farms, also at Jannale, to make them suitable for accommodating students from the Farm Management and Extension Training Center during their field internship stage. The Manager of the Demonstration State Farm would be responsible to the head of the Farm Manage- ment Advisory Service. The National Extension Service (NES) 45. A Technical Headquarters for the National Extension Service would be established at Afgoi. This service would be headed by an internationally recruited Agricultural Extension Specialist Technical Director. He would be responsible to the Project Director through the Project Technical Manager. He would be assisted by a Farming System Specialist, a Plant Protection Specialist, a Communication Specialist, who would all be internationally recruited, and a Somali Training Program Officer. The most important criteria for recruiting expatriates for the Extension Service would be their experience with extension in environments similar to Somalia.  - 14 - 46 ~ At che regionaL level, the extension service would be headed by a Reg[rnal Extension Officer assisted by a Regional Farming System Specialis- and a Regional Plant Protection Specialist. All three would be graduates of the Faculty of Agriculture and the Farm Management and Extension Training Center. The Regional Extension Officer would be responsible to the Technical Director of the National Extension Service. At the field level, the Field Extension Agents would be responsible to the District Extension Officer who would be a graduate of the Agricultural Secondary School and the Farm Manage- ment and Extension Training Center. The District Extension Officer, in turn, would be responsible to the Regional Extension Officer. The field agents would be graduates of the Extension Training Centers at Bonka or Jannale. 47. In addition to its regional and district organizations, the National Extension Service would maintain two Extension Training Centers at Bonka and Jannale. These centers would be headed by principals who would be graduates of the Faculty of Agriculture. These principals would be responsible to the Technical Director of the National Extension Service. 48. Coordination would be needed between the extension service and marketing and credit agencies regarding the availability of the appropriate inputs, market outlets for farm produce and of credit. A Technical Coordina- tion Committee would be established under the chairmanship of the Director General of Agriculture (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.04). The Department Directors of the Ministry of Agriculture and the representatives of marketing and credit institutions would be members of the Committee. The Agricultural Secondary School 49. The technical assistance team provided for the Agricultural Secondary School would include six technical teachers and an agricultural training specialist as the team leader. The team leader would be responsible to the Project Director through the Project Technical Manager. The Agricul- tural Secondary School would be the major supplier of trainees for the Farm Management and Extension Training Center. Appointment of all technical assistance staff to the school would be made by August 31, 1979 (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.06). Technical Assistance and Training Abroad 50. The Project would require the services of 26 internationally recruited specialists in agricultural extension, farm management, technical agricultural training and statistics, for a total of 87 man-years (during a period of about 5 years). Qualifications and experience of the above spe- cialists would be acceptable to the Association. The Government has identified sources of recruiting the bulk of the required technical assistance. In order to ensure continuity of Project activities after the investment period, provision is made for training Somali staff at levels that would allow them to take over full responsibility upon departure of the technical assistance staff. The programming, location and nature of training abroad, study trips and field trips would be determined by the Project Technical Manager. The training program for Somali staff would be submitted for approval of the Association by March 31, 1980. (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.07.)  - 15 - National Agricultural Research Strategy 51. Agricultural research in Somalia is at its early stage of develop- ment. It presently lacks the sense of direction that would make it purposeful and economic for the country to undertake. Because of the dependence of the Extension Service on research, the Project would provide for consultancy services for a study aimed at developing a research strategy which would serve as a basis for the future initiation of research programs that would back up agricultural extension and ensure its utility and viability. The Government will furnish the terms of-reference of the study to the Association for approval and will submit the study report to the Association by September 30, 1980 for review. (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.08.) The Central Statistical Department (CSD) 52. Development of statistics is the responsibility of the Central Statistical Department of the State Planning Commission. The CSD would keep its present organization and would be strengthened through the provision of technical assistance and training of Somali staff. An internationally re- cruited Economist/Statistician would lead a team comprising an Agriculturalist/ Statistician, a Demographer/Statistician and a Data Processing Specialist on terms and conditions acceptable to the Association (Development Credit Agree- ment, Section 3.09). The team leader would be responsible to the Director of the Central Statistical Department in the State Planning Commission. Appoint- ment of the four technical assistance staff would be a condition of disburse- ment for the statistical component (Development Credit Agreement, Schedule 1, paragraph 4). The technical assistance staff would assist in building the basis for a comprehensive program for development of statistics through train- ing of Somali staff, improving the methodology for gathering of statistics, starting a limited statistical work program in such important areas as a national multi-purpose household survey, agricultural land use and yield survey, and cost structure surveys for various production activities. Project Cost Estimates 53. Total Project costs, including contingencies, are estimated at US$32.4 million. The foreign exchange component represents 64% of total costs, or IJS$20.7 million. The project cost estimates are summarized below:  - 16 - Project Cost Summary Local Foreign Foreign Project Component Currency Exchange Total Exchange -------- US$ million ------- % Project Management Unit 1.1 1.8 2.9 68 Consultancy Services Procurement and Preparation Phase II - 0.5 0.5 100 Farm Management and Extension Training Center 1.8 3.8 5.6 68 National Extension Service 4.3 4.4 8.7 50 Farm Management Advisory Service (excluding DSF) 0.3 1.1 1.4 79 Demonstration State Farm 1.1 2.0 3.1 65 Research - 0.1 0.1 100 Central Statistical Department 0.2 0.9 1.1 82 Consultancy Services for Civil Works - 0.2 0.2 100 Agricultural Secondary School 0.1 1.2 1.3 92 Total Base Costs 8.9 16.0 24.9 64 Physical Contingencies 0.4 0.7 1.1 64 Price Contingencies 2.4 4.0 6.4 64 Total Costs 11.7 20.7 32.4 64 54. Project costs are estimated on the basis of prices expected to pre- vail in March 1979. Physical and price contingencies combined represent 30% of base costs. The Government does not levy import duties on goods for the agricultural sector. Consequently, all capital items are included without such duties. Costs of internationally recruited staff are estimated between US$50,000-US$80,000 per man-year, depending on the job to be performed and the source of recruitment. Financing 55. The financing of the Project would be shared in the following amounts and proportions: % of Total Amount Project Costs US$ million % IDA 10.5 32.4 EEC (Special Action Account) 1.5 4.6 USAID 7.6 23.5 ADF 8.9 27.5 Government 3.9 12.0 Total 32.4 100.0  - 17 - The proposed IDA Credit of US$10.5 million would be to the Government of Somalia on standard IDA terms. IDA contribution would consist of 66% foreign exchange and 34% of local costs. The local cost financing is justified in view of the country's poverty. IDA would co-finance the Project with the African Development Fund (ADF), USAID, and EEC Special Action Account on parallel basis. IDA would provide funds for establishment and operation of Project Management Unit, for operation of the Farm Management and Extension Training Center and the National Extension Service and for assistance to the Central Statistical Department in the State Planning Commission. ADF would finance civil works and the Demonstration State Farm, except technical assist- ance. USAID would provide funds for technical assistance for the Farm Manage- ment and Extension Training Center and the National Extension Service, for developing a national research strategy and for training abroad of Somali staff. EEC Special Action Account would finance assistance to the Agricul- tural Secondary School at Afgoi. The EEC financing would be on IDA terms; ADF and USAID financing would also be on concessionary terms. The Government of Somalia would contribute US$3.9 million or 12% of total Project costs. 56. The proceeds of the Credit would be channeled by the Government as a grant to the Project. In order to ensure smooth Project implementation and continued liquidity, the Government would deposit a sum of So. Sh. 3.0 million in PMU's Project Account, which would be increased to So. Sh. 5.0 million by the end of the first year of Project period, and would replenish this Account with adequate funds throughout Project implementation (Develop- ment Credit Agreement, Section 3.02). The initial payment to the Project Account would be a condition of Credit effectiveness (Development Credit Agreement, Section 5.01(e)). Procurement 57. Contracts for the supply of vehicles and equipment would be awarded after international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines. Orders would be bulked whenever possible. Technical assistance would be procured with the assistance of IDA in case of the Project Technical Manager and the Financial Controller. Technical assistance for the Farm Management Advisory Service would be procured by the Government and would be subject to approval by IDA. Training abroad would be planned and organized by the Project Technical Manager. Contracts for the supply of other Project inputs, including office equipment and supplies, of US$50,000 equivalent or more, would be awarded after international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines. Contracts for less than US$50,000, but in aggregate not exceeding US$300,000, would be awarded locally following Government procure- ment procedures which are satisfactory to IDA (Development Credit Agreement, Schedule 3). 58. The items financed under the EEC Special Action Credit would be procured in accordance with Schedule 3 of the EEC Special Action Credit Agreement which limits bidding to EEC member countries and IDA member countries that are eligible to receive Special Action Credits.  - 18 - _ . bursement 59. The disbursements from the proceeds of the IDA Credit would be fully documented and would be on the basis of: (a) 100% of expenditures on vehi- cles and equipment for PMU, FMAS (excluding DSF), and CSD; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures on technical assistance and training abroad, for the PMU, the FMAS (including DSF), and the CSD; (c) 41% of local expenditures on local salaries for NES and FMAS (excluding DSF); (d) 100% of operating and mainte- nance costs for PMU, FMETC, NES, FMAS (excluding DSF) and CSD. EEC funds will be disbursed on the basis of 100% of expenditures on vehicles and equipment, technical assistance and operating and maintenance costs for the Agricultural Secondary School. The schedule of estimated disbursements for IDA Credit and EEC Special Action Credit is given in Project and Credit Summary. Coordination 60. Memoranda of Understanding between the Association and all co- financing agencies, covering project composition and financing plan, procure- ment and disbursement procedures, project supervision, consultation and exchange of information on various matters of mutual interest would be agreed and signed by the Association and all cofinancing agencies after approval of all the confinancing agreements. Accounts and Audit 61. Separate accounts would be kept, reflecting expenditures financed by each co-financier. Project related accounts would be audited by an independent auditor. The Magistrate of Accounts is an independent auditing agency in Somalia. Although the auditing capability of this agency is presently less than optimum, IDA is considering measures for strengthening it with the help of the June 1978 IDA Technical Assistance Credit. Provided appropriate measures taken the Magistrate of Accounts would be an acceptable independent auditor for Project accounts. The Government would submit suit- ably audited accounts to IDA within six months of the end of each fiscal year. (Development Credit Agreement, Section 3.13). Economic Evaluation 62. The Project would directly benefit the 195,000 farm families engaged in agricultural production as well as the farm laborers working on state and cooperative farms. The Project would indirectly benefit all food consumers through lesser reliance on imports and a steadier supply of food. It would benefit the rural population through the catalytic effect the extension service would have on production,technical training and education, health, and nutrition. 63. The design and scope of the Project, the selection and relative size of Project components and the organizational arrangements for Project imple- mentation are based on past experience with similar agricultural extension projects in various countries, particularly in India. Specific characteris- tics of the Somali environment, including budgetary and institutional con- straints, have been taken into account. As in other institution building  - 19 - projects, the benefits due to the Project cannot be estimated with accuracy. It is not possible to identify separately the benefits attributable to exten- sion from the benefits which are expected due to improved factor inputs not provided by the Project. In addition, farmers' reaction to extension in Somalia is as yet unknown, since up to now no extension service has functioned at the farm level. 64. The economic rate of return should be regarded as indicative; it is estimated to range from 13 to 27% for the National Extension Service, because of uncertainaties regarding levels of achievement and variations in costs needed to bring about the predicted crop yield increments attributable to extension. An internal economic rate of return of 27% is considered most probable. The internal economic rate of return for the Farm Management Advisory Service is estimated in the range of 30% to 39% with a most probable rate of 39%. 65. In addition, the Project is expected to yield a number of non- quantifiable benefits whose value cannot be quantified. These benefits include income redistribution through the shift in emphasis from large-scale irrigated agriculture towards small farmers and towards rainfed agriculture. Most importantly,the Project would be of basic importance to the success of other production oriented agricultural development in Somalia because of its -institution building emphasis and, as a result of its contribution to manpower development.- Risks 66. lTere are three kinds of factors which could affect the overall success of the Project: namely, factors which could impede the proper and timely implementation of the Project, those which could affect the viability of the institutions being developed, and those that could negatively affect the system of production incentives in the country. With regard to project implementation, great care was taken to strengthen the management capability through organizational arrangements, training programs and provision of tech- nical assistance to ensure timely and efficient implementation of the Project. The viability of the Extension and Farm Management Advisory Services being strengthened through the Project would depend on the continuous flow of extension material from research which is presently weak. This represents a major potential risk to the success of the Project. For this reason funds are provided for developing a national research strategy, which the Government would use as a basis for improving the country's research capability at the same time that the extension service is being strengthened. The research strategy to be developed would also consider ways to ensure that research results would be acceptable to the farmers before their diffusion in order to maximize farmers' acceptance of improved practices. With regard to production incentives, the Government is aware of the fact that even with effective extension, increase in production would only come about if there were a market which offered producers adequate prices for their incremental output. These risks have! to be balanced against the certainty that without the Project, the Government would not be able to develop the means to effectively help farmers to improve their welfare and to help the country become more self-sufficient in major staple foods.  - 20 - k -ironmenEal Effects 67. The Project would build up the basis for the dissemination of appr,- priate crop and animal husbandry practices. These improved practices would help retain soil fertility, conserve existing forest and pasture resources, and preserve irrigated areas from the negative effects of inefficient water management. Role of Women 68. Women in Somalia are presently responsible for a major share of food production in the country. The Government is, slowly but surely, creating opportunities for women to participate actively in administration of the country and acceleration of the development process. The Project is one such opportunity that the Government is counting on for getting educated women to help improve the welfare of those involved in agricultural production through Extension Service. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 69. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Somali Democratic Republic and the Association, the draft EEC Special Action Credit Agreement between the Somali Democratic Republic and the International Development Association as administrator of the EEC Special Action Account established with funds contributed by the member states of the EEC, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for under Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Direc- tors separately. 70. Features of the Development Credit Agreement of special interest are referred to in Annex III of this report. 71. Additional conditions of effectiveness would be: (i) Government's provision of training farms to FMETC and to FMAS; (ii) establishment of a Project Management Unit; (iii) appointment of the Project Director, the Proj- ect Technical M4anager, the Financial Controller, the Procurement Agency and the consultants to assist PMU with procurement and supervision of construc- tion; (iv) initial payment of So.Sh.3.0 million to Project Account; and (v) the fulfillment of all conditions precedent to the effectiveness of other co-financiers agreements regarding the Project. An additional condition of effectiveness of the Special Action Credit Agreement would be that all condi- tions precedent to the effectiveness of the IDA Credit Agreement and other co-financiers agreements regarding the Project have been met. 72. I am satisfied that the proposed IDA Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association, and that the EEC Special Action Credit would comply with the criteria established by the Agreement of May 2, 1978 between the Association and the European Economic Community.  - 21 - PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 73. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credits. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Washington, D.C. April 25, 1979   ANNEX I Page 1 of 4 TABLS 3A SOMALIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES SQIALIA LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. Y. ) - MOST RECENT ESTLMATE) TOTAL 637.7 SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 299.0 MDST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 Lb 1970 lb ESTIMATE Lb REGION c GROUP d GROUP L GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 60.0 80.0 110.0 223.6 182.9 432.3 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (XILOGRAHS OF ODAL EQUIVALENT) 19.0 39.0 36.0 86.7 88.9 251.7 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS TOTAL POPULATION, MD-YEAR (MILLIONS) 2.6 3.1 3.7 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 18.0 25.6 28.3 13.6 15.0 24.2 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 3.0 4.0 6.0 18.4 46.8 42.7 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTtRAL LAND 7.0 9.0 12.0 53.6 254.1 95.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 43.8 46.5 45.0 44.4 43.6 44.9 15-64 TRS. 53.5 51.6 53.0 52.7 53.3 52.8 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 POPULATII GROWrg RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 URBAN 2.9 6.1 7.0 5.8 4.0 8.8 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.3 47.7 47.2 46.9 44.3 42.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.6 23.8 21.7 20.6 19.7 12.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF KARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. 2.5 14.6 14.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1970-100) 96.1 100.0 92.2 94.2 96.4 104.3 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OP CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 77.0 80.0 79.0 90.1 92.3 99.5 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 57.0 57.0 55.1 55.2 50.0 56.8 Op WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 19.0 *f 27.0 28.0 17.1 13.9 17.5 CHILD (AGES 1-4) SRTALIT! RATE .. .. .. .. .. 7.5 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (TEARS) 35.1 38.5 41.0 43.7 45.8 53.3 INFANT NDRTALITr RATE (PER TMOUSAND) .. .. .. 138.4 102.7 82.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PRCECT OF POPULATION) TOTAL *- 15.0 38.0 22.4 26.4 31.1 URBAN *- 17.0 77.0 66.3 63.5 68.5 RURAL .. 14.0 22.0 10.4 14.1 18.2 ACCESS To ECRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT Or POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 47.0 23.9 16.1 37.5 URBAN .. .. 77.0 70.3 65.9 69.5 RURAL .. .. 35.0 14.2 3.4 25.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 33220.0 21420.0 15760.0 _R.h 21757.5 13432.7 9359.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 3780.0 3260.0 2900.0 3473.8 6983.3 2762.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 630.0 580.0 570.0 /i 645.4 1157.6 786.5 URBAN .. .. .. 172.9 183.3 278.4 RURAL .. .. .. 1292.6 1348.8 1358.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. 19.2 19.5 19.2 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF NOUSEEOLD TOTAL .. .. .. 4.9 5.2 URBAN .. .. .. 5.0 4.8 RURAL .. .. .. 4.7 5.3 AVERArE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. L'RBAN .. .. .. .. 1.8 2.3 RURAL .. .. .. ACCESS ro ELECTRICITY (PERCENT Op DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 25.9 28.3 L'RBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. .. 8.7 10.3  ANN'EX I Page 2 of 4 TAJLZ 3A SOKnIA - SOCIL UIUICATOS DATA SUET RUEmNCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES - HoSl RECENT ESTXnA)TE SAME SAME KMT IGNEER )DST UCENT GZOGAPEIC INCG INCOME 1960 / 1970 a ZSTnAu A REGION 0 GROUP d GROUP LI EDUCATION ADJUSTlD lOLUtUIS RATIOS PRIMAR: TOrAL 9.0 9.0 34.0 52.1 62.9 75.8 FhuLl 5.0 5.0 41.0 37.6 45.9 67.9 SICODAILT: TOTAL 1.0 5.0 4.0 8.0 14.4 17.7 ZttL^lZ 0.2 2.0 2.0 5.0 8.8 12.9 VOCATIONAL (PERCT Or SECONDAIT) 26.0 3.0 14.0 7.2 6.6 7.4 PUP1L-TEACH3U RATIO PlRAAty 29.0 33.0 57.0 43.2 38.5 34.3 SgONDARt 20.0 23.0 21.0 22.8 19.8 23.5 ADULT LITERACY BATE (PZRCUT) 1.5 5.0 50.0 /h 20.3 36.7 63.7 CONSUMPTION PASSZNGER CARS PER TWoSAND POPULATION 1.2 2.4 2.7 3.9 3.1 7.2 RADIO RECEIVZ PZR THOUSAND POPULATION 12.0 18.0 22.0 40.1 31.1 71.1 TV RECEIVERS PEM rOUSAND POPUILATION .. .. .. 2.2 2.8 14.1 N;SPAPER (DAILT GMNEL INTEREST') CIRCULATION PER T3USAND POPULATION 1.0 2.0 1.0 3.9 6.0 16.3 CIoIrA .AUAL ATTENDANCE PE CAPITA 0.4 1.7 .. 1.2 1.4 1.6 MPLOtMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 930.0 1100.0 1250.0 hEALE (PERCENT) 30.1 29.7 29.4 32.6 24.2 28.0 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 88.0 82.0 77.0 73.3 60.7 54.1 lD7STRtY (PURCEE) 4.4 5.9 7.0 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 41.5 38.9 39.1 42.0 39.8 37.8 HALE 58.4 55.3 55.9 54.8 53.3 50.3 ?ENALE 24.7 22.8 22.8 27.3 19.6 20.9 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 IrNcomE DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OP PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED aY qIGNEST 5 PERCENT5 OP HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 25.7 20.3 19.5 IlIGaEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 55.1 45.1 48.9 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OIP HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 5.8 5.7 5.9 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF SIOUSEBOLDS .. .. .. 14.5 16.8 15.7 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTStATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US1 PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 108.8 88.5 155.9 RURAL .. .. 50.0 74.1 71.9 97.9 EST7I4ATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) JUAN .... 73.0 124.4 100.8 143.7 RURAL .. .. 35.0 59.6 42.0 37.3 ESTIMATED POPULATION 3ELOW POVERTY INCOME LEYEL (PERCEZT) MR3AN .. .. 25.0 26.8 46.0 22.9 RIIRAL .. .. 30.0 47.6 48.0 36.7 p INot available 'Foe applicable. NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are populstion_eignted geometric means, excluding :he extremse values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries aong the tndicacors depends in availability of data and is not ,miform. b UJnless itherwtse noted, data for 1960 refer to any Fear between 1959 and :961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most lecent Escilate, between 1973 and 1977. /c Africa Sourn of Sahara; Id Low Income CS280 or less per caoita, 1976); /e Lover Niddle Income {$281-53O per canita, L976); , 1963; _ 1971; h Including midvives and assistant aurses; /I !972; I ,overnient estiate. Sepcember, .918  ANNEX I OEfEPfO9TOS 0? SOCUL t9D1CAT0RS Page 3 of 4 Ilgr: The adjustad group averages for each Indicator are popu.lation-velighted geometric meads. excluding tha axtrame values. of the indicator and theo wse Populated countrv La each group. Coverage of countrIts among the Lndicators depends on availability of data and i.s mat uniform. Due to lack of data, group averages for Capi.tal Surplus oUl ixporters and indicatgrs of accass to water and excretes disposal. houasing. Incos. distribution and poverty are simple population-weighted geometri. scans without the exclusion of extreme values.. IAN0 AREA (thousand Sq. bin) Population per bospttai bed - cotal, urban, and roral - PopaLatlon (total, 77ral - bacal surface akrea cooprising land area anid inland waters, urban, and rural) divided bv their respective number of hospital beds Atcltuta1 - most recent escimate of agricul.tural area used temporarily available in puablic and Private general and specialined hosvital and re- or permanently for crops, pastures, market and kitchen gardens or to habUitation canters. Rospitals art establishmentLs permacnently staffed by Li. atc least one planstcian. fatablishmente providing principally cuscodial care are anot itacluded, Rural hospitals. however, include health and mcdi- W1 Pta CAPTKTA (S)-NPper capica astimacee at current market price.. cal centers riot permanently scatfed by a physician (but by a medical. as- cauculaced oc lsae conversion method as gorld Bank Atlas (1975-77 basis); sistant. nturse, midwife. etc.) whicb offer Ln-patient accOmkodetlon and i960. 1970. and 1977 data, provide a Limited range of medical. faciliti.s. bdmissiona per-hosol.tal. bed - total aum2ber of admissions to or discharges ENERGY C05St9WTLCN ?Ea :CAPITA - Annual, cnsamption of comercial energy from hoepitals divided by the aumber of beds. (zoal and Liguits. petroleus. natutral gas and bydro-, nutclear and geo- thermal eiectricitZy) in kil-ograms of ceel equivalent por capita. AOU$t90G Average size of hoshl Pesn oousushl) total. arban. and rural- PoItAIOA'0vITA STATISTIC A househol.d consiets o aTS gopf ndividuals whio shara lLIving quartets 'Iotal, onpul.a_ign mi-n at il.lign) - As of July 1.; if dot available, anLd their main meals. A boarder or lodger may at may not be included in averg. a a I n-er siate; L960, 1970. and 1977 data, the household for statistical. purposes. Statietical definitions of house- Urba nplcan (percent of total.) - Ratio of urban to ctota popuia- held very, non; iffeent erl.ntion of rban areas may atffct comparabLilIty &verage number of persons per room - cotal., urban anrul Avrae us or dacta aoonn countries, bet of persons per room in all., urban, and rual occupied convenrianal. PopulatIoa density dwel.lings, respectively. Oweilings excl.ude non-permanent structures and Pt9,k.- M(id-year populAtion per equare kLiloustec (1.00 hentaree) unonoopied perts.. of total area. Access to elactrIcity (percent of dwellings) - total.. raen, and ruraLl - Per sq. kan. agricuilture Land - Compuced as above for agricultural land Ctvonvetlooaj dve)l.ligs with electricity Ln l-iving quarters ase percentage ..Iy. of total. urban. anA rural. dwellings respectivgly. Populationi ac sructure (aertgnt r hildren (0-L6 years). w .orkins-ege (l5-f. years Sand oeired (65 years and over) as percentagge of mid- EDUCAT1TO4 year population. Adjusted enrllment rs'tios Population &rosath crte (percent) - total. end urban - Campound annua Primary school. - total, and temale - Total. and female anrollmieni of all ages growth rates of coral and urban mid-yetar populations for 1950-60, at the primary level. as percentaeso of respectivelyv primar-y school-age 1004,and 1970-75. populationts; normally includes children aged 6-Ll yerar butc adjusted for Crude birth rare (per :hougend( - Annual. live births per thousanLd of different lengths of primary education. for counktries with universal edu- mxid-year population-, ten-year arithmettic averages anding in 1960 and cation enrollment may exceed 100 perente since some pupil& are below or i.970 and five-year average ending in 1975 for mamt recent estimate. above the official school age. Crude death rate (Per thousand) - Annual decath per zhousaad of mid- Secondary school. - total, and femal - Computed aso above; secondary educa- !ear population; ten-year arithmetic averages ending i.n 1.960 and 1970 tion requires at leI 'Our yer of approved primery instruction; pro- and fve-yar aerageendig In1975 at ost ecenteetiate,vidas genral vocational, or teacher training Instructions for pupils Imp3s reproduction rate - Average number of daughters a wmana will besr usually of 12 to LI years of age; correepoodence courses are generally on %.er nornal teproductive period if abse experiences present age- excluded. specific fertility rates; usually five'-yeer averagets ending In 1960. Vocational enrollment (nercent of secondary) - Vocational institutions in- 1970, and 1975. cluod technical. Industrial, or other programs which operaer independantly Pamiy plnnin - acepors,annul (touseds) Annual. number of or as departments of secondary institutions. Faiy acceptrs of birth-control. devices under sausices of national family Pupil-teacher ratio - orisry. sand seconder, - To t.lsuet noldI planning programo. pnisary and Secondary lavels divided by numbers of ceechers in the corre- Family plannLing - users (percent 0 ofmridoen Percentage of sponding levels. merried waomn of child-bearing age (5i-hA yers who use birth-contral, Adult Literacy rate (aer n) - Literatea adalts (able to read and write) as devie.s to all Married women in same age group, a percentage of tota ad'alt population aged Li years and ever. P100 A.ND Xtt9TTTON C01S1194TIO)g Index of foodIproduction per capita (1970-100) - Endaz nuvmber of per Passenger cars (ner thousend "PouLation) - Passenger cars comprise motor cars capita annalprodution of aL.i food acnoodicies. searing lees than eight persons; eacludee ambulances, hearse. and mil.itary P.,' ..Pita supply af clre(aetof requirements) - Computed from vehicles. energy equivalent of net food supplies available in country per capita Radio receivers (par thousand ponulation) - All types of receivers for radio per day. Available supplies comprise demerite production. imports leas broadcasts to general public par thousankd of population; extiucies unlicensed omport3. and changes in stock. Met supplies exclude animal feed, seeds, receivers In countries and in years whten registration of radio soats was In quantities used in food procesasing. and lossee in distribution. Re- effect; data for recent year. may not he amoerabL* sim. met coudtries quiroments were estimated by PAl based on physiological needs for nor- abolished licensing. mal activity and health considering environmental tsmperature. body TV receivers (Dos thousend-;opulation) - T7 receivers fior broadcast to %xdarxa weights, age and sez distributions of population, and allowing 10 per- public per thousand populatIon; excludee unlicaened TV receivers itn coun- cent for waste at houaehoLd level, tries and in years when registration of TV sete .,a in affect. yet capita suPPLy of protei,n (cr-n per day) - Protein content of pat Newsypate circulation (per thousand nonu ctin Shove the average circuic- capita mtsrspl fLn e day. .4sr Supply of food is definad as no f' sal eneral. Interest neweseer defined as ak periodical publi- above. Requirements for all countries establieshed by I05DA provide for, cstion devoted primarily to recording general tewe. ft is nonsidered to I minimum alloveAce of 60 grame of tocal protein per day and 20 grane be "daily" if it appears at least four times a week. -of Snimal and pulse protein, of wthico 10 grea" should be nimal proteIn. Ciaem- annual acttenance per capitA per near - gased on the number of tickets ...ese standards are lover than those of 75 grams of total protein and sold during the year. including admaisioss to drive-in tlnmeas and mobile roiTms of animal protein ae an average far the world, proposed by Qunits. FtAO In :he Third 'fetid Pond Survey. Par ,apita ,ratsin auonlv from animal end Pulse - Protein supply of food mIptAflEmyT detrosaa from anivals aLd pulses is graes per day. Total labor forceo (thomaean) - fconomiraIly actIve persons, including arnzd ,'hild adejs I--) mortality race (-Pet thousammd) - Annmual deaths per thosu- ore n nmlydbtedidngousewives, students, act. Defini- and in age group 1-4 years. :o childiren in this age group. tionds in veouis countries arer sot comparable. Female (aperrent) - easlel labot force as percentage o f total labor fre dAEAL- - ASricultura (percentc) - Labor force, ln !arming, forestry, bunting and fishnig L.ife expectancy at hirth (vears) - Average mnuber of years of life as oercentage od total labor force. remaiaing at It-'ch; usually five-year averages ending in 1960. 1970. Industry (percent) - Labor force in mining, constr'actlon. AanufacturIng and and 11975. alectricity. water and gee as percentsag of total l,bor forte. tzfaut 2ortullt-, rate (per aneusand) - AnnuaL deaths of Infants under Particloacion rste (poecent) - total, al.and !emale - Cotal., male, sad on0e tar of age Per thousand Live blrhts. amnlal1.lbor 'orce as percentages if thair resnectlve ponclations. icc..so to 5eas .catr