Senegal - Water Supply Engineering and Technical Assistance Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2467a-SE REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR A WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT April 11, 1979 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only In the performance of their officisl duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.00 - CFAF 220 CFAF 1 million = US$4,545 SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURES: METRIC 1 meter (m) 2 - 3.28 square feet (ft) 1 square meter Cm ) 10.76 square feet (sq. ft.) 1 kilometer (km) 2 ' 0.62 mile (mi) 1 square kilometer (km ) - 0.386 square mile (sq. mi.) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CVCCEP - Commission de Verification des Comptes et de Controle des Etablissements Publics DGHER - General Directorate of Hydraulics and Rural Equipment SONEES - Societe Nationale d'Exploitation des Eaux du Senegal UNDP - United Nations Development Programme FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Senegal Amount: US$2.5 million equivalent Terms: 10 years including a grace period of 2 years. The proposed Credit would be refinanced under a future Loan/Credit for a project in the water and sanitation sector. Project The proposed engineering and technical assistance project would Description: cover all the necessary economic, financial, and technical studies needed to prepare a priority investment project for rehabilitation and extension of water supply systems in eleven secondary centers of the country, including six regional capitals. The project also includes technical assistance to strengthen the planning and operating entities in the sector. The project is expected to make an important contribution to helping the Government achieve its long-range objectives of organizing and strengthening the water supply and sanitation sector. The Government is keenly interested in this project, and its full support will be needed in implementing recom- mendations from the various project studies. The project faces no special risks. Estimated The cost of the proposed project is estimated at US$3.2 million Project Cost: equivalent, including foreign costs of about US$2.5 million (about 78%) and taxes of US$0.1 million. A summary table of cost estimates is shown below: This docunent has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanc of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authoiztion.  - ii - (in US$'000) Local Foreign Total a. Geophysical and Drilling Works 159 568 727 b. Water Supply Feasibility Studies 227 545 772 c. Sanitation and Sewage Disposal Studies 22 173 195 d. Financial Studies and Audit 27 182 209 e. Sector Organization Studies 6 82 88 f. Training and Tariff Studies 13 119 132 g. Master Plan on Management of Water Resources 45 182 227 h. Technical Assistance 96 384 480 Total Base Costs 595 2,235 2,830 Contingencies 105 265 370 TOTAL COSTS 700 2,500 3,200 Financing Plan The proposed Credit of US$2.5 million would meet the entire foreign exchange cost of the project; the Government would finance the local cost component estimated at US$0.7 million equivalent, including about US$0.1 million in taxes on the geophysical and drilling works. Estimated Disbursements: FY80 FY81 Annual 1.3 1.2 Cumulative 1.3 2.5 Rate of Return: Not applicable. Staff Appraisal Report : None. Map: IBRD No. 11470R.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR A WATER SUPPLY ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSSISTANCE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Development Credit to the Republic of Senegal for the equivalent of US$2.5 million to help finance a Water Supply Engineering and Technical Assistance Project. The Credit would be for 10 years including a grace period of 2 years, and would be refinanced under a possible Loan/Credit envisaged for a project in the water and sanitation sector. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report entitled "The Economy of Senegal" (212-SE) was distributed to the Executive Directors on September 10, 1973. Since then, a series of preparatory 'sector missions, a basic economic mission, and most recently a public finance mission have visited Senegal to update the macroeconom!ic data base and to review the country's development strategy. The following para- graphs reflect the findings of these missions, whose conclusions will be included in a basic economic report now being finalized. Updated country data appear in Annex I. Economic Structure and Past Developments 3. Senegal is situated at the extreme western part of the African continent. In the traditional sector of the economy, the mainstay is. millet cultivation and nomadic cattle-raising for domestic consumption, and ground- nut cultivation for exports. Soils are generally poor, and variations in rainfall periodically cause severe food shortages in the months between the sowing and hLarvesting of the next crop. The large river basins -- some of them fed in the tropical rain zone -- have so far been exploited only margin- ally. Land distribution is fairly even. In the western part of the country arable land is becoming scarce, but in the extreme south-east some good land is still avaLilable. The modern sector of the economy is concentrated in Dakar, a well organized city of about 1 million inhabitants. The economic base of Dakar consists of excellent port facilities, an industrial sector which is turning gradually toward exports, and a small but fast-growing tourism industry. Senegal's per capita GNP for 1977 was estimated at US$420, but average income in Dakar is roughly five times as high as in the country- side. 4. During the 1960s, the Senegalese economy experienced virtual stag- nation as real output increased less rapidly than population growth (the latter now estimated at 2.7 percent per annum), and per capita GNP declined. Two factors were responsible for this situation. First, with independence, Senegal lost its privileged position as the center of French West Africa,  - 2 - and therefore had to adjust to reduced economic, administrative and political circumstances. Secondly, in the latter part of the decade, groundnut produc- tion (representing the principal export factor) fell due to unfavorable weather and declining export prices. 5. In the 1970s, a new stage in Senegal's development set in, charac- terized by a higher rate of private and public investment. Private invest- ments, which had hovered around 4 percent of GDP in the late 1960s, rose to 7.5 percent during the period 1970-75, while public investments increased from around 5.5 percent of GDP in 1972 to almost 7 percent during 1973-75. In spite of this rise in the rate of investment, output and incomes were depressed in 1972 and 1973 by the Sahel's most severe drought in over a century, which brought a decline in real national income. Thereafter, when weather conditions improved and purchasing power of the rural population was substantially restored, both agricultural and industrial production increased markedly. However, in 1977 the country suffered another severe drought, the magnitude of which is reflected in the variations in groundnut crops. From a historical record of 1.45 million tons in 1975/76 (more than double the average for the 1968-73 period) output fell to less than 0.6 million tons in 1977/78; but it recovered to about one million tons in 1978/79, ushering in a new phase of economic recovery. Despite these substantial fluctuations in agricultural production, industrial output (excluding groundnut processing) grew fairly evenly by about 5 percent a year. GDP in constant prices in- creased at an average annual rate of 4 percent between 1973 and 1977 thanks to the recovery from the earlier droughts, but in 1978 it is estimated to have declined by 14 percent. 6. The strong physical fluctuations in production were aggravated by price fluctuations of Senegal's major export and import commodities. In 1974, terms of trade improved by over 21 percent, mainly due to exceptionally high prices for phosphate rock, Senegal's second export commodity. However, in 1975 export prices for both phosphate rock and groundnuts declined sharply, and since then the terms of trade have stayed well below the level of the early 1970s. These wide international price fluctuations had serious conse- quences on domestic prices, public finance, and balance of payments. Public Finance 7. After some early hesitation, the Government responded with flexi- bility in adapting its policies to changes in the economic environment. In 1974, Government initially tried to maintain stable domestic prices in the face of skyrocketing food import prices; however, by the end of that year when it became clear that the cost of this policy were becoming excessive, several changes were made. Particularly, in an attempt to reduce subsidies and put public finances on a sounder footing, Government raised the prices for rice, sugar, and groundnut oil by 40 to 90 percent. As a compensation, Government salaries were raised on average by 16 percent, with actual increases ranging from 60 percent for the lower grades to 3 percent for the higher ones. The minimum wage was increased by 47 percent, thus raising the entire wage scale of the private sector. Average consumer prices rose  - 3 - by some 28 percent in six months' time, but Government managed to stabilize prices almost completely in the year thereafter. At the end of 1974, the Government also increased producer prices for groundnuts to bring thLem closer to world prices which were at that time particularly high. The loss of revenue to the Treasury because of this latter step was expected to be com- pensated in large part by additional revenues from the phosphdLe mine in which Government increased its participation while levying an 80 percent tax on the excess profits accruing from the quadrupling of export prices of phosphates in 1972/73. In 1974 and 1975, Government did indeed receive high revenues from phosphates amounting to roughly US$45 million a yrear. 8. These steps led to a net increase in public savings after debt service from a yearly average of US$23 million during 1971 through 1973, to US$41 million during 1974 through 1976. This high level of public savings was doubtless an important factor in stimulating Government to increase public investment outlays from a yearly average of US$24 million to US$49 million during the same two periods. In addition, purchases of equity and lending to domestic enterprises by Government increased sharply from a past average of US$5 million to US$62 million in FY74, and about US$32 million in 1975 and 1976, mainly because of increased participation in the phosphate mine and the acquisition of two foreign-owned public utility companies. The combined capital outlays of the Government were thus substantially in excess of public savings, and were financed in large part through medium-term foreign bank loans. As a consequence, foreign debt service carried by the Central Govern- ment increaLsed from US$8 million in FY73 to US$38 million in 1975/76, repre- senting about 10 percent of Central Government revenues. 9. A sudden fall in world phosphate prices in 1976 eliminate,l Govern- ment revenues from this source and reduced public savings after debt service to a negligible level. As a consequence, Government increased taxes in the following year to derive additional yearly proceeds of about US$37 million; these tax measures, combined with a substantial restraint on recurrent ex- penditures,, gave Government an opportunity to undertake some new comnmercial borrowing for its investment program. When it became clear that the 1977/78 crop would be a complete failure, Government substantially increased current expenditures to avoid famine in the countryside by importing more cereals and absolviing farmers' debts; however, the Government did not reduce its investment program which was kept going through heavy commercial borrowing (US$134 million in 1977 and US$187 million in 1978). As a consequence, in 1980/81 when grace periods are over, debt service obligations to the budget will reach about US$145 million (or 16.4 percent of Government revenues). To cover this debt service and still leave a sufficient national contribution to the public investment program, the tax ratio will have to be increased from 23 percent of GDP in 1976/77 to 25 percent in 1979/80, even if growth of recurrent expenditures is held, for a number of years, at rates well below existing trends. This will demand substantial restructuring of current budget expenditures so as to protect such high priority outlays as road maintenance, education and public health.  -4- Balance of Payments 10. The balance of payments came under heavy pressure in 1973 because of low groundnut exports and increasing imports of foodstuffs and equipment goods, and net foreign reserves of the country fell to minus US$15 million. In the following years the deficit on current transactions was reduced, but outflows of p;ivate capital related to the acquisition of foreign enterprises continued, and net foreign reserves declined further to minus US$48 million at the end of 1975. This deficit was financed partly by US$30 million in IHF oil facilities, and the rest by increasing the indebtedness of the mostly foreign- owned commercial banks to their parent companies. 11. Since then, the situation has not improved. In 1976, the state marketing board purchased the large groundnut crop at the high producer prices established in 1974, injecting massive purchasing power into the economy, while Government continued expansive monetary and budgetary policies. Both measures substantially increased import demand. However, export revenues stagnated since groundnut prices were 25 percent below the 1974 peak, and phosphate prices were down by 35 percent. Even though there were price declines of the same order in some of Senegal's food imports, the net effect on the terms of trade was heavily negative. The year 1977 did not bring any substantial improvement, although the 1976/77 groundnut crop was good. In December 1977 net foreign assets were down to minus US$53 million. 12. The 1977/78 drought caused a loss of US$82 million in groundnut revenues and drove up food imports by US$56 million (partly paid from foreign grants), creating a deficit on current account of US$228 million as compared to US$101 million in the previous year. Thanks to the heavy commercial borrow- ing, the impact of this huge trade deficit on net foreign assets could be limited to US$34 million, a deficit that was financed by drawings on the IMP compensatory facility and trust fund. Prospects and Creditworthiness 13. The Government's long-range development strategy remains based on promotion of agriculture and export-oriented activities. The agricultural program calls for development of areas less affected by rainfall fluctuations (Casamance and Eastern Senegal) where cash crops other than groundnuts can be grown. Irrigated cereal production is being developed in the arid northern part of the country along the Senegal River. This policy will make the country less dependent on the uncertainties of its climate and world market prices, and reduce the heavy burden of food imports; but since the majority of the rural poor remain involved in groundnut farming, Government is con- tinuing its efforts to promote animal traction, treated seeds, fertilizer use, and crop rotation to raise the productivity of farmers. The Government also aims at long-term improvement of the balance of payments mainly through modest expansion of phosphate mining, and development of light export in- dustries and tourism; moreover, contracts have been signed for construction of a ship-repair yard, and plans for a phosphoric acid plant are in an advanced stage. With chances for export growth in the groundnut sector  - 5 - limited, and because of relatively high production costs in light industry, no spectacular improvements in the balance of payments can be expected. Govern- ment is counting heavily on the implementation of a number of large invest- ments, either in irrigation to diminish the heavy dependence on r:Lce imports, or in capital-intensive industrial projects, which is, however, less desirable from an employment point of view. In view of the risks that Government would have to assume on the above-mentioned large-scale industrial investments, a cautious view of the long-term outlook is warranted. Even to achieve an eco- nomic growth rate of not more than 4 percent a year as compared to an official objective of 5.8 percent, the resource gap will keep growing, although still within manageable limits. 14. In the medium term, Government will need a particularly large pro- portion of foreign capital in the financing of new projects so as to allow implementation of a high public investment program in spite of lilmited public savings. Such a program is essential for Senegal's future development, because total investments would have to increase over the next several years to bring the country back on a satisfactory growth path. Moreover, the share of the public sector in total investments will have to go up, partly because of the critical dependence of the economy on acceleration of publicly financed irrigation, partly because of the increased share in ownership Government has recently acquired in the most important sectors of the economy, and partly because of the low propensity of the private sector to invest due to high production costs in Senegal. 15. This need for high public investments conflicts with existing trends in public savings. Despite a fast growth in Government receipts, public savings after debt service stagnated at a low level in the past, and are expected to become heavily negative in 1978-79, a period with low receipts due to the depressed economic condition in the previous drought year. Interest and amortization on the heavy debt contracted during this drought year will absorb most of the savings the budget can possibly generate in thIe next four to five years. Considering the already very high level of taxation in Senegal, further increases in the tax burden, while unavoidable, will necessarily remain limited, so that even under the best of circumstances, pubLic savings cannot be expected to contribute more than 15-20 percent towards the financing of new public investment. 16. To avoid a further increase of the debt service burden, Government should not, for some years, contract new commercial loans to finance projects that do rnot generate sufficient funds for the repayment of these loans. Higher debt service will necessarily compete with other recurrent expenditures such as the maintenance of existing infrastructure and of new development projects,, types of expenditures which already provide budgetary problems for the Government. As a consequence, it is almost certain that a considerable number of projects presently under consideration which are not directly productive will have to be postponed. Government will also have t:o avoid excessive financial risks on productive projects by being more se:Lective in its participations and guarantees on loans contracted by mixed enterprises, and may even have to consider disengaging itself entirely from some of these  ventures. A better economic performance in the parapublic sector should be a key ingredient in the fiscal program Government is presently designing. 17. The balarnc c' payments situation is dominated by the need for a better foreign reserve position. In the short term, Senegal can afford low levels of foreign reserves through its membership in the West African Monetary Union which provides for pooling of foreign reserves, and whose currency is guaranteed by the French Government. Moreover, as the experience in 1978 has shown, IMF and STABEX facilities provide a sufficient buffer for the periodic drops in export revenues linked with droughts and fluctuations in world market prices. However, Senegal's negligible contribution to the Union's foreign reserves for an extended period may harm this regional institution, whose existence is a cornerstone for Senegal's creditworthiness. An expected improvement in the public savings performance, together with continuing export-oriented policies, is expected to bring about a recovery of this unsatisfactory foreign reserve position. 18. The ratio of debt service to exports of goods and non-factor serv- ices increased rapidly from 6 percent in 1976 to a projected 15 percent in 1979, a level which the Bank considers close to the maximum allowable in Senegal's present economic situation. This steep increase is mainly due to an increase of commercial borrowing from about 25 percent of total bor- rowing during 1973-76 to an average of 64 percent during 1977 and 1978. Only with much greater reliance on concessionary capital flows will Government be able to keep the external debt service ratio around the present level. This might require a certain reduction in foreign borrowing over the coming years, especially if access to concessionary capital remains limited. 19. On the assumption that Government takes steps to maintain a balance between public investments and public savings, Senegal would remain credit- worthy for some lending on IBRD terms. The Government has demonstrated its commitment to development by increasing public investments between 1970/71 and 1977/78 by 20 percent per year in current prices. The Government has also demonstrated its capacity to respond adequately to the problems which its vulnerable economy is bound to encounter periodically. In August 1978, the National Assembly was called from summer recess to approve a new fiscal package amounting to US$20 million, and Government is presently working (in cooperation with IMF and the Bank Group) on a new set of fiscal measures to redress the public finance situation. Government has committed itself to bringing the level of public savings after debt service to at least 15 percent of public investment over the next few years. Senegal has reasonable pros- pects for long-term diversification and growth. Its access to short-term financing facilities and membership in the West African Monetary Union also reduce the risks associated with economic fluctuations. However, lenders (including the Bank Group) should provide a large part of their assistance on concessionary terms in order to avoid a further rapid buildup of debt service.  PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SENEGAL 20. The Bank Group has had 39 operations in Senegal to date. Total outstanding lending amounts to US$199.6 million, including twenty ADA credits, thirteen Bank loans, two blends of Bank and IDA funds, three IFC operations, and one blend of Bank and IFC funds. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as of February 28, 1979, and notes on the implementation of ongoing projects. Execution of these projects is progressing reasonably well, except that some operations have been affected by the shortage of counterpart funds due to the Government's continuing dif- ficult public finance situation, as well as by lack of qualified locaL staff for key positions. The Government is well aware of the need to reduce delays caused by these problems, and particularly of the importance of assuring good management supervision of projects in all sectors. In this respect, the Para-Public Sector Technical Assistance Project approved by the Executive Directors in January 1978 is designed to initiate measures necessary to resolve on a sectorwide basis some of the issues regarding the general situa- tion of the country's finances and Government control of public enterprises and mixed companies, particularly those which are channels for Bank Group assistance. In addition, the Government has recently created an Interminis- terial Committee, with representation of foreign aid donors, to expedite preparation of new investment projects, and to identify bottlenecks in project execution and take remedial action. The work of this committee has already begun to prodluce some positive results. 21. The Bank Group's share in total external aid disbursements to Senegal over 1977-81 will stay at around 16 percent, of which roughly 45 percent in IDA financing. The Bank Group's share in outstanding disbursed debt was 20 percent in 1976, and will slowly start to surpass that level to 22 percent in 1980. The Bank Group's share in public debt service is expected to increase from 3.8 percent in 1976 to about 9 percent by 1985, a rise which is mainly due to the increase in Bank loans from 21 percent of Senegal's outstanding disbursed debt to the Bank Group at end-1976 to about 53 percent by 1985. 22. The objectives of Bank Group lending in Senegal fall under five main headings. First, we continue to give priority to rural development, includ- ing development of irrigation in the Senegal River Valley Region and intensi- fication of groundnut production and diversification into new crops and new regions. As in the past, we would expect our agricultural lending over the next few years to exceed one-third of the total. Secondly, we have supported diversification of the economy by lending to the growing industrial sector through the Societe Financiere Senegalaise pour le Developpement de :L'Industrie et du Tourisme (SOFISEDIT), a development finance company established with Bank Group assistance in 1974, and through an ongoing tourism project. Thirdly, we have supported modernization and expansion (where economically desirable) of the country's infrastructure. The engineering project proposed in this report would pave the way for Bank Group involvement in the water supply and sanitation sector by financing studies for a water supply project in eleven secondary centers, as well as technical assistance and consulting  - 8 - services to help define sector responsibilities and strengthen sector institu- tions. Fourthly, Government has asked us to help re-orient and expand the country's education system at all levels, by meeting in particular the needs for trained high- and middle-level technicians and managers in the modern sector and in agricultural development activities, and by increasing access to primary level education, particularly in rural areas. An education project which will be negotiated shortly is designed to meet these objectives. We remain conscious of the need to support other projects in the social services sector, within the limits of the Government's ability to bear the recurrent costs involved, and we have started preparing a nutrition project. Finally, we are helping Government increase its absorptive capacity for planning, executing, and managing development projects through institutional support within individual Bank Group projects, and through broader efforts such as the Technical Assistance Project for the Para-Public Sector. Several Bank operations which fit into the overall objectives of the Government's economic strategy, notably in tourism, telecommunications, port infrastructure, loans to SOFISEDIT, as well as a Second Aviation Project approved by the Board earlier in FY79, have the additional merit of generating revenues for the Senegalese Treasury. PART III - THE WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION SECTOR Water Resources 23. Water resources in Senegal are unevenly distributed, scanty, and only partly investigated. There are three perennial rivers which border or cross the country: the Senegal on the North, and the Casamance and the Gambia in the Southern region. Although, generally limited in quantity and quality, groundwater is the country's principal source of water supply. The Government has undertaken a systematic inventory of groundwater resources with assistance from the United Nations Development programme (UNDP) and bilateral funds. The inventory initially concentrated on areas neighboring the capital city of Dakar where development of irrigation and industrial projects requires larger quantities of water. The inventory is beginning to yield adequate information on water potential; however, management of these resources and their allocation among various users has not been studied. The proposed credit would finance studies on the allocation and management of ground water resources in the Dakar-Saint-Louis corridor. Water Supply 24. A limited study of the water supply and sewerage sector was carried out in 1975 under the World Health Organization (WHO)/IBRD Cooperative program. Information collected under that study revealed that almost 70% of the urban population had access to public water supply service, but that only 15% of the rural population shared this privilege. That part of the rural population which is adequately served has wells or boreholes; the remainder is served by non-perennial and remote sources of supply. Only about one-third of the urban  population has private connections; the remaining two-thirds obtain service through public standpipes. Sanitation 25. Public sewerage systems exist only in the larger cities of Dakar, Saint-Louis, Kaolack and Louga, and the service provided is restricted to the central parts of towns and to a relatively small part of the population. The remainder of the urban population not sewered have individual disposal systems: latrines, privies and septic tanks. Before July 1978 when sewerage and drainage activities were merged with those of the water sector under the Ministry of Equipment, the Government had contracted about US$27 million equivalent to finance sewerage and drainage works in certain secondary cen- ters. Similar suppliers' credits are being considered for other centers; however, existing studies for these works are unsatisfactory in that the projects proposed are not shown to be affordable and to represent the least- cost soluticins. Moreover, most of the completed sewerage systems are not in operatiorn because of failure by the population to make the necessary connections (neither the financial means nor legislation making connections compulsory exist). For centers not yet studied, the proposed project includes updating studies of waste disposal which would focus on such issues as appli- cation of appropriate technology, least-cost solution and affordability, and motivation and hygiene education for the population; these inputs are con- sidered necessary to ensure that the project benefits reach the intended beneficiaries. The proposed studies would also investigate comprehensive legislative and financial measures which would optimize, to the extent possible, the use of existing investments in the sector. Public Health 26. T'here are few reliable statistics on specific water-borne and sani- tation-associated diseases, although morbidity due to common enteric and parasitic diseases is known to be high throughout the country. The more commonly observed of the important water-related diseases are: malaLria, various diarrheas, dysenteries, and parasitic infections directly attributable to environmental deficiencies. Riverblindness remains prevalent in areas bordering the rivers of Southern and Eastern Senegal. Excess of fluoride in wells in the Sine Saloum Region also contributes to illness. The Ministry of Health is responsible for monitoring the water quality of public systems and the reliability of waste disposal installations, but because of a shortage of qualified staff to routinely fulfill its role, the Ministry has limited its intervention to urban areas at critical periods of epidemics. Sector Organization 27. A Ministerial change creating the Ministry of Equipment in 1978 placed most sector responsibilities for water supply and sanitation in the Ministry's General Directorate of Hydraulics and Rural Equipment (DGHER). While DGHER's competence includes planning, implementing and monitoring  - 10 - operations in the whole sector, operations themselves of the urban systems are the responsibility of Societe Nationale d'Exploitation des Eaux du Senegal (SONEES). All sector assets are owned by the state. 28. DGHER's activities in the urban subsector have been limited to technical planning for water supply and sewerage investments and execution of works. The limited number of qualified senior Senegalese and expatriate staff did not allow the Directorate to effectively carry out its overall planning and monitoring roles for which it remains very weak. The proposed credit would remedy these weaknesses by providing technical assistance to DGHER to better carry out these functions. DGHER also controls the execu- tion and maintenance of rural watering points, and is implementing an ambi- tious program of well digging and drilling to serve the human and the cattle population. Well brigades in DGHER's regional offices have been set up over the last five years with the assistance of the Association and bilateral agencies, and these brigades have been responsible for implementing most of the well digging activities. The remaining constraints to smooth imple- mentation of rural watering points are inadequate budget allocations for the well brigades and for maintenance operations, and insufficient numbers of adequately trained field technicians. Maintenance and operation of power- driven rural systems are carried out by a special subdivision of DGHER, but with limited staff and credit facilities. 29. SONEES, a national mixed enterprise created in 1971, took over the activities of the former foreign-owned concession. It is managed by a Board of six senior Ministry officials who appoint a Managing Director. Early efforts to assure appropriate management of water schemes in 36 urban centers have been hampered by lack of qualified Senegalese senior staff. While SONEES' responsibility also extends to carrying out designing and supervision of works for water schemes it operates, SONEES has not actively pursued these functions which are shared with DGHER and has limited its role to operations. An efficient training policy aimed at training young technicians was estab- lished with good results, and SONEES now has an adequate cadre of qualified engineers and administrative staff. As a result, operations in Dakar and secondary centers have improved significantly. In order to help SONEES take an efficient role in designing and supervision of works, the proposed credit would finance technical assistance of an engineer to set up a Study and Works Supervision Department and to train Senegalese engineers; the Credit also includes consulting services for the review of measures taken to strengthen SONEES' internal organization. 30. The present sector organization does not foster optimum management efficiency and sound investment decisions. The present demarcation of re- sponsibilities between the various entities is not clearly defined; as a result, overlapping of functions or lack of effective coordination have been observed despite the 1978 ministerial change. The proposed credit would finance consulting services for a review of existing institutional arrange- ments to determine improvements or changes necessary to meet the long term needs of the sector, including the desirability of consolidating the present set up.  - 11 - Financial Organization and Position 31. Assets owned by the Government and operated by SONEES have a total net book value of CFAF 11.8 billion (US$53.6 million equivalent), of which the Lac de Guiers scheme supplying water to Dakar and villages along the 300 km pipe represent CFAF 7.2 billion (US$32.7 million), or about 60%. Borrowing for financing these assets is administered and recorded by, the General Amortization Fund of the Ministry of Finance. There is no single set of accounts which covers financial operations of the sector as a whole. SONEES maintains records for its own current operations, and a separate set of accounts for Government-owned assets and their depreciation. 32. The revenue source for the sector is a charge on consumption of metered water. The tariff includes a number of components, the corresponding revenue being earmarked for: (i) SONEES' current operating expenses; (ii) small new investments and renewals to be effected by SONEES on behalf of the Ministry of Equipment; and (iii) debt service which is handled by the Govern- ment's General Amortization Fund. Since November 1977, the full tariff for the Dakar region is CFAF 140 (US$0.64) per cubic meter; for the other regions, the tariff is slightly lower. 1/ However, important tariff reductions are applied to standpipe consumption, agro-industries, and commercial vegetable growers, although some of these reductions appear questionable. There is also a social tariff which is applied to domestic consumers with small connections. The proposed project provides consulting services to further review the tar- iff level and structure, including a review of methods of applying charges to cover the costs of expanding sewerage operations. 33. In the past the sector was operated at a deficit. However, fol- lowing the tariff increase of November 1977, data compiled by the appraisal mission indicate that the sector on a consolidated basis is in a slightly better tharL break-even situation. Billings expected for 1978 are about CFAF 5.3 billion (US$24.1 million), which would cover cash operating costs and debt service for assets in operation. Debt service stayed at a rea- sonable level in the past as the major part of sector assets, i.e. the Lac de Guiers scheme has been financed on concessionary terms. However, the Government is planning important investments in water and sanitation, and if these are realized, the financial position of the sector could deteriorate. Capital expenditure plans and their financing will therefore need close moni- toring, and agreement was obtained from the Government during negotiations that it will not make any additional investment in the (1) sanitation sector and (2) for water supply systems in cities with more than 5,000 inhabitants during execution of the proposed project without prior consultation with the Association (Section 3.03 of draft Development Credit Agreement). In addi- tion assurances were obtained that the Government will not make any invest- ments in the centers being studied under the project, other than for routine repair and renewals or urgently needed works (which would be justified to the Association), before (a) the feasibility studies have been completed, and (b) there has been an exchange of views with the Association. 1/ Comparable figures for other West African countries are: Ivory Coast US$0.1i0; Liberia US$0.45; Guinea US$0.40; and Cameroon US$0.57.  - 12 - 34. A major problem is the exceedingly high level of unpaid customer receivables; on December 31, 1977, these amounted to CFAF 3.8 billion (US$17.3 million), corresponding to about one year of billings. Those most difficult to collect are owed by the Administration, by Government agencies, the munici- palities, and commercial vegetable growers. The proposed study on SONEES' finances would include an analysis of the arrears situation, and recommenda- tions on appropriate measures to be undertaken to improve collections. Objectives of the Water Supply Sector 35. The last national four-year Development Plan (1973-1977) allocated about US$73 million for urban water supply and sewerage, and US$15 million for rural water supply. The rural investments generally have been implemented; however, proposed investments in urban networks did not receive the level of foreign commitments anticipated, and only about half of the program was actually implemented with the remainder carried over to the next Plan period. The current Plan (1977-81) has set targets of about US$60 million for urban water supply and sewerage disposal, and about US$31 million for rural water supply; about 45% of these amounts appear to be committed under domestic and external financing. Based upon past experience, the global level of proposed investments is unlikely to be achieved because of the limited absorptive capacity of the sector entities, their difficulty in adequately planning and preparing projects, and the scarcity of counterpart financing to meet local costs. Ongoing projects are nearly all financed by external sources: the African Development Bank has committed about US$10 million for extending the water supply and drainage facilities in Dakar; the German aid agency KfW, about US$5 million for extension of the water supply system in the town of Saint-Louis and extension of the essentially urban Lac de Guiers piped systems to rural communities; the European Development Fund, about US$5 million for extension of the main trunk sewerage network of Dakar; Italian suppliers' credits amounting to about US$22 million have been committed for extending sewerage to Kaolack, Louga, and Saint-Louis. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 36. The proposed Engineering Credit would be the Association's first operation in the water supply and sewerage sector in Senegal. This sector has been given high priority in the Government's recent Development Plans, and the Bank Group has supported this policy. However, because of the his- torical lack of adequate planning, organization, and financial management in the sector, this first intervention comes only after protracted discussions with the Government over the past few years on institutional aspects, possible objectives and components of investment projects, and prerequisites for their successful implementation. Following broad agreements reached with the Govern- ment on these issues, identification of the proposed project was completed in July 1977, and it was appraised in October 1978. Negotiations were held in Dakar in March 1979 with a Senegalese delegation led by Mr. Moustapha Lo,  - 13 - Secretary General of the Ministry of Plan and Cooperation. There is no Staff Appraisal Report for this project. IBRD Map 11470R shows the location of the eleven secondary centers for which the investment project is envisaged (para. 39(b) below). Annex III indicates the timetable of key events in project preparation and processing. Project Objectives and Description 37. The Government had originally been mostly concerned with the prob- lems of water supply and sewerage in the capital city of Dakar, but has recently started giving greater emphasis to providing adequate services in secondary centers, particularly in the regional capitals where these services now reach only about 15% of the inhabitants through private connections, and an additional 40% through public standpipes. Studies for extension of water supply services in 37 secondary centers were prepared in 1975 with Government financing; however, these studies did not focus on financial feasibility, nor did they aLdequately study the availability of water resources or the social and economic implications in project design. 38. The proposed engineering project would cover all the necessary economic, financial, sociological, and technical studies needed to undertake a priority investment project for rehabilitation and extension of water supply systems in eleven secondary centers of the country. The project also includes technical assistance to strengthen the planning and operating entities in the sector, and a number of studies on sectoral issues. 39. The proposed project, which would be carried out over 1979-81, would include: (a) geophysical and drilling works in the area between Dakar and Saint-Louis, including the Taiba area; (b) feasibility studies, detailed engineering, and preparation of bidding documents, for water supply extensions in six regional capital cities -- Diourbel, Kaolack, Louga, Thies, Tambacounda, and Ziguinchor; and five secondary centers -- Bambey, Fatick, Kolda, Linguere, and M'backe (about 7 man-years); (c) updating of feasibility studies for the sanitation of all the above centers except Kaolack, Louga, and Thies and detailed design for the Dakar Medina sewerage network (about 20 man-months); (d) financial studies of the entire water supply and sanita- tion sector, including audits of SONEES' accounts for FY1978 and 1979 (about 12 man-months); (e) review of the organization and management of the water supply and sanitation sector, and an analysis of existing legal instruments defining the responsibilities of sector entities (about 10 man-months); and of SONEES' organizational structure (3 man-months);  - 14 - (f) studies of: (i) manpower development and training requirements in the sector (7 man-months); and (ii) review of tariffs for water supply and sewerage ser- vices in the urban and rural sub-sectors (7 man-months); (g) study of the allocation and management of water resources in the Dakar-Saint-Louis corridor (25 man-months); and (h) technical assistance of (i) an engineer (2 man-years) to establish SONEES' design and works supervision services; and (ii) an engineer and an economist (4 man-years) to rein- force DGH's planning capacity for urban and rural water supply. Project Costs and Financing 40. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$3.2 million equiva- lent, of which about US$2.5 million in foreign exchange (about 78%). All components are estimated net of taxes, with the exception of geophysical and drilling works which include a minor amount of taxes. Cost estimates are based on end-1978 prices, taking into account: (i) for field works, similar operations recently implemented for DGHER; and (ii) for consulting services and technical assistance, contracts offered in Senegal and in other Western African countries over the past year. Unit costs for consulting services and technical assistance average US$9,000 monthly, including US$1,500 for reimbursable costs. Total consulting services under the project amount to about 14 manyears, and technical assistance to about 6 man-years. Physi- cal contingencies ranging from 10-15% for all project components have been applied. Price contingencies of 8% per annum have been applied for studies and technical assistance expected to take place in and after 1979. 41. The proposed Credit of US$2.5 million would meet the entire foreign exchange cost of the project and would be refinanced under a future IDA credit. The Government would finance the local cost component of US$0.7 million equivalent. Retroactive Financing 42. Geophysical works which are a prerequisite for the drilling works were tendered nationally in consultation with the Association and awarded to the lowest bidder. The Government has agreed to prefinance that contract for which early results are needed to proceed with the feasibility studies. It is proposed that the Association approve retroactive financing to cover the foreign exchange cost of geophysical works already undertaken (US$250,000). Project Execution 43. Project execution is expected to start in mid-1979, and to take about two years to complete. The Ministry of Equipment would have primary  - 15 - responsibility for most of the project components, with execution carried out under separate DGHER divisions for Urban Hydraulics, Rural Equipment, Sewage Disposal, and Studies and Programming. DGHER will coordinate with SONEES to supervise the water and sanitation feasibility studies and the water supply detailed engineering studies. The Government would be respon- sible for the financial studies, including audits of SONEES' accounts, which would be imonitored by the Government's Auditing Commission (Commission de Verification des Comptes et de Controle des Etablissements Publics); this Commission is entrusted with supervising audits of public and mixed enter- prises in the country, and is already monitoring satisfactorily the audits financed by the ongoing IDA Technical Assistance Project for the Para-Public Sector (Credit 764-SE, US$6.3 million, 1978). 44. Execution of drilling works would be carried out under contracts awarded following international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines. All technical assistance and consulting services would be employed under contracts and terms of reference acceptable to the Association. The consultants' reports on the feasibility studies would be submitted in draft to permit review by the Government and the Association, and incorpora- tion of their comments into the final version. The consultants' conclusions and recommendations on sector organization, management, and finances would be discussed between the Government and the Association, and agreed recommenda- tions would be implemented in consultation with the Association. The financial studies would be carried out by an international accounting firm under terms of reference acceptable to the Association; the selected consultants would be expected to work in association with a Senegalese accounting firm. 45. The proposed financial studies would cover the records of SONEES (including small investments and renewal funds), the fixed assets owned by the Government, and debt service for the water and sewerage sector administered by the Government's General Amortization Fund. The studies would include audit and consolidation of sector accounts and financial statements (income state- ments, balance sheets, and flow of funds statements) for the year 1978 and 1979, and would make recommendations for improving accounting procedures and internal control. The consultants would also be expected to establish the present value of sector assets currently in service by calculating their replacement value less depreciation. 46. All the arrangements detailed in paras. 43-45 above were discussed and agreed during negotations (Sections 3.01 and 3.02 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). A detailed work program for execution of the proposed studies which was also discussed at negotiations, was recorded in the agreed minutes of negotiations. Disbursements 47. Credit proceeds would be disbursed as follows: (i) 100 percent of tlhe foreign exchange cost (and 77% of local costs) of geophysical and drilling works;  - 16 - (ii) 100 percent of the foreign exchange cost (and 77% of local costs) of consulting services for studies; and (iii) 100 percent of the foreign exchange costs of technical assistance experts, including recruitment costs. Project Benefits and Risks 48. The proposed project would make an important contribution to helping the Government achieve its long-range objectives of organizing and strengthen- ing the water supply and sanitation sector. It would do this by allowing prep- aration of a priority project for possible Bank Group financing, and through studies leading to establishment of appropriate institutional arrangements, technical standards, and financial policies. Specifically, the feasibility studies would provide Government with viable proposals for the creation and expansion of water supply systems in several of the main secondary centers of the country; the technical assistance component would help DGHER establish the technical capacity for planning a rational approach to sector investments in urban and rural water supply and sanitation. 49. The project faces no special risks. Detailed terms of reference for the feasibility and sector organization studies and the work program for all components of the project were discussed during negotiations in order to minimize the risk of the studies not meeting project objectives and assurances were obtained that these will be followed. The Government is keenly interested in this project, and its full support will be needed in implementing recom- mendations from the various studies. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 50. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Senegal and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association, are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 51. Special features of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III.  - 17 - 52. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 53. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Washington, D.C. April 11, 1979  - 18 - ANNEX I SPEGAL - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET RZFnENCE GROUWS (ADJUSTED AVELAGES SUUMAL LA LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - OST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 196.2 SAue SAME NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 80.0 IOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 jb 1970 /bk ESTIMATE Lb RIEGION /c GROUP d GROUP L/ GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 200.0 270.0 420.0 223.6 432.3 867.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 121.0 139.0 195.0 86.7 251.7 578.3 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS TOTAL POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 3.4 4.4 5.3 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 22.7 29.0 30.2 13.6 24.2 46.2 POPULATION DENS ITY - PER SQ. KM. 17.0 22.0 27.0 18.4 42.7 50.8 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 43.0 55.0 66.0 53.6 95.0 93.3 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.6 41.2 44.2 44.4 44.9 42.9 15-64 YRS. 53.6 54.9 52.7 52.7 52.8 53.5 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.8 3.9 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.5 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 URBAN 3.5 5.0 4.0 5.8 8.8 4.7 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 48.0 47.6 47.6 46.9 42.2 37.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.5 24.4 20.0 20.6 12.4 10.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.5 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS. ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. 2.5 14.2 20.0 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OP FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1970-100) 151.5 100.0 139.4 94.2 104.3 107.3 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 97.0 91.0 97.0 90.1 99.5 105.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 64.0 64.0 67.1 55.2 56.8 63.0 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. 16.6 /f 20.8 17.1 17.5 21.7 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE .. 85.0 .. . .. 7.5 8.0 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 35.9 40.0 44.0 43.7 53.3 57.2 ;;, .i MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 193.0 ., 158.0 138.4 82.5 53.9 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 22.4 31.1 56.8 URBAN .. 87.0 .. 66.3 68.5 79.0 RURAL .. .. .. 10.4 18.2 31.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 23.9 37.5 30.9 URBAN .. .. .. 70.3 69.5 45.4 RURAL .. .. .. 14.2 25.4 16.1 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 35000.0 16640.0 13470.0 21757.5 9359.2 2706.8 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 4110.0 / 2610.0 1350.0 3473.8 2762.5 1462.0 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 940.0 810.0 730.0 645.4 786.5 493.9 tJRBAN *- 390.0 380.0 172.9 278.4 229.6 RURAL .. 1300.0 1156.0 1292.6 1358.4 2947.9 ADKISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 22.2 26.7 19.2 19.2 22.1 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. .. 4.9 .. 5.2 URBAN .. .. .. 5.0 .. 5.0 RURAL .. .. .. 4.7 .. 5.4 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. .. .. 2.0 URBAN .. .. .. .. 2.3 1.5 RURAL .. .. .. .. .. 2.7 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 28.3 64.1 URBAN .. .. .. .. .. 67.8 RLURAL .. .. .. .. 10.3 34.1  - 19- ENEX I Pogo 2 SUGAL - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA S5H T RnUTiCI GROUPS (ADJUSTED AViAES S11RGAL A - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) SAME SAMZ IT F!VCOU IOST RECECi GCOGAPIC IlCOME CtlC Is 1960 L 1970 & ESTDIMAT Lk RCION La CEtOP Li QOUP Le EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMRY: TOTAL 27.0 43.0 40.0 52.1 75.8 99.8 FEiALE 17.0 33.0 32.0 37.6 67.9 93.3 SECONDARY: TOTAL 3.0 11.0 13.0 8.0 17.7 33.8 FEHALE 2.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 12.9 29.8 VOCATIONAL (PERCENT OF SECONDARY) 23.0 9.0 10.0 7.2 7.4 12.8 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 4- 43.0 49.0 43.2 34.3 34.9 SECONDARY 34.0 29.0 22.0 22.8 23.5 22.2 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 5.6 1h 10.0 10.0 20.3 63.7 71.8 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THDUSAND POPULATION 6.0 9.0 9.2 3.9 7.2 12.4 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 47.0 69.0 66.0 40.1 71.1 104.5 TV RECEIVERS l'ER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.4 8.0 2.2 14.1 28.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 6.0 5.0 7.0 3.9 16.3 45.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. .. 1.2 1.2 1.6 4.6 EiPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 1300.0 1600.0 1650.0 FEKALE (PERCENT) 39.7 39.1 38.8 32.6 28.0 25.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 83.6 73.0 *- 73.3 54.1 46.2 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 5.4 6.6 .. PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 46.6 44.3 42.8 42.0 37.8 33.8 MALE 56.7 54.5 53.0 54.8 50.3 48.1 FDULE 36.8 34.3 32.8 27.3 20.9 17.3 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBIITION PERCENT OF PitlVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSENOLDS 36.8 L *- *- 25.7 19.5 23.6 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 62.5 /i .. .. 55.1 48.9 52.3 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 3.2 /t .. .. 5.8 5.9 4.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 9.4 j .. .. 14.5 15.7 13.1 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN ..L..o..s108.8 155.9 191.9 RURAL .. .. 70.0 74.1 97.9 193.1 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 151.0 124.4 143.7 319.8 RURAL .. .. 117.0 59.6 87.3 197.7 ESTDIATED POPULATION BELOW POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 23.0 26.8 22.9 19.8 RURAL .. .. 30.0 47.6 36.7 35.1 Not availatble Not applicable. NOTES la The adjuisted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries almnit the indicators depends on availability of data and im not unifors. lb Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; akd for Most Recent Estimate, between 1973 and 1977. /c Africa South of Sahara; Id Lower Middle Incom ($281-550 per capita. 1976); le Intermediate Middle Income (5551-1135 per capita. 1976); tf 1972; L& 1964; /h African population only; Li Population. September, 1978  - 20 - AN lEIilNJ IlIONS OlF SOCIAL. 5iNDCATflb:nwu HU": Tihe adjusted grou.p averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, e-clding the extreme values of the indi-ator and the mo.nt populat,ed cou.ntry in each grou.p. Coverge of countries amoong the indicator. depend. on availabIlIty of data and is not uniform. Due to lask of data. group averages for Capital Surplus Oil Exporters and Indicators of access to water and excreta disposal,1 hous Ing, incom distribution and poverty are efaple..P p lt [00-n -wighted geome.tric moans without the excinton, of extreme, value. LAND AREA (thouaand sq. ha) Population por hospital bed - total, urban. arkd rural - Population (total, Total - Total surface area comprising land area, and Inland waters, urban. and rural) divided by their respective number of hospital bade A,gricultural - Moent recent estimate of agricultural are&a ued tamporarily available in public and private general and specialized hospital and re- or permanentl y for crope., Pastures, market and kitchen gardens or to habilitation contere. Hoapitala are astabliabments Permanently staffed by lie fallow. at leasat one physician. Establishisen to providing principally custodial care aLre not Included. Rural hospitals, however. incluade health and medi- C;NP Nkf11 CAP lTA 3lnj- GNP' per capita estimates at current macbet prices. cal centaer not permanently staffed by a physicianL (but by a medical as- calculated by .am. co-ersion method on World Banb Atlas (1975-77 basie); destent, nurse. midw,ife, etc.) wehich offer in-pattiest accommodation amd [960, 1970, and 1977 data, provide a limited range of medical facilities. Admissions per hospital bed - Total number of admissionns to or discharges ENERGY5 CONSUMPTfION PERt CAPITA - Annual consumption of romercia1 energy from hoapitals divided by the number of beds. (coal and lignite, petroleum, natural ga. and hydro-. nuclear and geo- thermal el-ctrIinty) in bilograms of coal equivalent Per capita. HOUSING Average a Ise of household (persons por hoosehold) - total, urban, and rural- POPULATION ANll VITAL STATISTICS A household consiste of a group of individuals who share living quarters Tot,Sl_p2ul.tlon, eid-,Yar (ilon)- A,. o Jiuly 1; It nor available. end their eels -ele. A boarder or lodger my or may not be inrluded In average 0Tru, o-yoat esi-te.l; lOhi). 1914), and 1977 data, the household for statistical purposes. Statistical definitions of house- Urbn ppullo. (Percent 0t total)_ - eal1.o Of urban to total popula- hold vary. Elon diift.nn.t deiinitl... of orb n areas may affect comparability Avrge numberj pesoafe roomN ~ LocalI. urban, an ru-1l - Average, num- of data among count ries, ber of persona per room in all, urban, and rural occupied conve.ntional Pop uIa tIoRn_ deni_ty dwellings, respectively. Dwellings exclude non-permenment structures and Par q k. - Mid-year population par square kilometer (100 hectanes) ..noccupied parts. of total are. Acs oeetiiy(preto wlig)-toa,ubn n ua Par sq. be. agriculture land - C,omputed ox above far agricultorl land Convetional dweellings with electricity in living quant... as percen.tage only. of total, urban, and rural dwellings respertiv,ely. Population age_structure (~percent) - Children (0-li years). working-age 115-64n years). aod retired (65 years and over) ans percentages of aid- EDUCATION year population. AdJuet.d enrollment ratios Populatio 1n .gy.outh rae(ece!)ttal sd urban - toepound annu al Primary school - total. and female - Total end female enrollment of all ages growth r-ten of total and urban mid-year populations for 1950-60, at toe primary level sa. percentages of respectively primary school-age 196G-70. and 1970-75. populations; normally includes children aged 6-11 years hut adjusted for Crude birth rote (per thousanid) - Annual lIve births per tit.....nd of different lengths of primary education; for countries with universal edu- mid-year popuiation; ten-year urlthntic averages ending in 1960 and cation enrollment may excee d 100 p-eret since noes Pupils are below or 1970 and five-year average ending in 1975 Iur moot recent estimate, above the official school age. Crude death rate (par thousa.nd) - Annual deaths per thousan.d of mid- Secondary school - total, and female - Computed ax above; secondary sduca- year population; ceon-year arithmetic averagna ending in 1960 end 1970 tion requires at lneat four years of approved primary instructionl Pro- and five-year average ending in 1975 for most recant estimate. vides general vocational. or teacher training instructinon. for pupils Gross reproduction rate - Average number of daughters a woman will hear usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspondence courses are generally In her normal -eproductiv- period If she ..peri.n-e pr-aco sge- included. sPecific fertility rates; usua.lly lice-year aeasending in 1960. Vocational en-rient (percen.t of secondary) - Voca.tional lo-titutions 10- 1970. and 1975. clude tsi,ic d,inutrial. or other programs which operat independently Family ljjsnnina - acCeptors, annual j,hu daos - Annoal number of or xu departments of secondary Institutions. acceptors of birth-control devices uoder auspices of national family Pupil-teacher ratio - primary, and secondary - Total stuents enrolled In planning program. primary and secondary levels divided by numbers of teachers in the cerre- Family planning - users (percent of married women) - Prereenrge of spending levels. married womn of child-bearing age (15-i44 years) who use birth-control Adult literacy rate (percent) - Literate adults (able to read and write) as devices to all married women in same age group. a percentage of total adult population aged 15 years and over. FOOD AND NUTRITION CONSUMPTION Index of food production per capita (1970-100) - Index number of per Passenger cars (per thousand population) - Passenger cars comprise motor cars capita annual production of eli food commodities. seating lose than eight personal excludes ambulances, hearses and military Per capita supply of calories (percent of requirements) - Computed from vehicle.. energy equivalent of net food supplies available in country per capita Radio receivers (per thousand population) - All types of receivers for radio Per day. Available supplies comprise domestic production, imports less broadcasts to general public per thou-and of population; excludes unlicsne..d exports, and changes in stock. Net supplies exclude animal feed, seeds, receivers In countries and in years when registration of radio sets was in quantities used in food processing, and losses in distribution. Re- effect; data for recent years may net be comparable since mo.st countries quir.e.et. were estimated by FAO based on physiological needs for noir- abolished licensing. mel activity and health considering nionotltemperature, body TV receivers (per thousand population) - TV receivers for broadcast to genaert weights, age and se. disitributions of population, and allowing 10 per- public per thousand population; excludes unlicensed TV -esivsr. is coun- cent for ...ste at household level. triea and in years when registration of rV sets was In effect. Per cpita _uppl_y of protein .(jr~am jiec dA,yl - protein content of per Newspaper cIrculation (per thousand population_) - Shows tihe v-rg. Icirrla- caPIta net supply of food per dsp. N,.t supply of food Is defiload as tlon of 'daily general interest newspaper," defined a. a 1riodlca1 publi- abov.- Requirements for all countries ast.blished by USDA provida far cation devoted primarily to recording general news. It E. considered tO a elnimum,alunc of hi grsmn of total prLotin par day and 20 igrams be "daily" if it appear a least f.o. times .n week. ,f animal and noIse protein. ,I which IU grams, should b. soisul Protein. CInema nnual attendance 1.r_ topics _pcr veer-Po-ed on the -ub-r 0 t ikchtt The-s L-d-rds are Iow. ithan Lhos of 7,i grea. of tctai protein and sold daring the psar~. Including ad.i.ta... to, driv--i,, cn-eas and mob,l, 71 gramns of ennlpro trio - a,nv o..rage In, iLhr -n'rd, yr'nsdiy units.. FAO iv tine rh,1 d World co,.d vS--o'. Pe cpI_,,e r.tnnisin _*_Wly I. ne olunI -.nn. puo- o- V-t.n -~ppIn oi food II9PLiIY5iiP deri~vd trn,e nanim -ld put... in grass I.., Joy. Total lIAb-r lp.tce (thousanqds) . ponmnal , c..y....n. I.,cudlsg -med Chid scn1-4)_Rprt.aiiy rae(prtosn)- Aunn-al deaths P.r those- forces and unemployed but -urluding inueitn idoi.1. Defini- and in ago gr-p i-4 Year,. to children in. thins ago group. tiont in eari.u. countries nrsot comparabl-. Female (percent) - Female labor force as ipsrcentagn- f total labor force HEALTH Azricultnnro_(pyrSent) - Labor force In farming, fores.try, hunting and fisihing Life exp~ctanc.y at birtih Ayap-Aor.ae number of yearn ol Ii!. as percs.t.. o..f total labor force. remaining at birth; usua lly five-yea r av-rgee ending in 1960. 1970, Industry (percent) - Labor forc in mining, construction, manufacturing and and 1975. electricity. water and gsaas .percentage of total labor force. Infant mortality rate (par thousan d) - Annual deaths of infants under Participstlon rate (percent) - total, male, sod femle - Total, male. and one year of age per thousand live birhtn. female labor frce as percentagex of their respective populations. Access to safe water (percent of population) - total, urban, and rural - these are TLO.' adjusted participation rates reilecting g-..e Niher of people (total, urban, sod rural) with reasonable access to structure of the population. ond Ioorj ttie trend. sae water supply (includes treated surface waters or untreated but tconomic dependency ratio - Ratio of population under 15 und h5 sod o-ve to uncontaminated water such as that from protected borehole., springs the labor forcs in age group fi 15-64 yeses. and sanitary w.lls) as percentages of their respective populations. In an urban area a Public fountain or standpoint located not more INCOSME DISTRIBUTION than 200 meters from a house may be considered as being within rea- Percentage of private Income (both in cash and kind) received by richest 5 .onabla access of that house. *.In rural areas ra....nable access would percent. richeet 20 percent. pooea.t 20 percent, and poorest h0 per,cent imply that the in-sw"ifa or members of the household do not have to of households. sPend a diepropertionnt. part of th. day in fetching cbs family's water needs. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS Access to excrete disposal__(percent, of Population) - total, uirban, and Estimaoted absolute poverty income level (US$ pee capit.) - urban and rura - rural - Number of People Itotal. urban. and rurI) o-rvd by secrets Absolut. povrty income I-vel is that in-ome level belou which a ii. disposal as percentages of thni r respective populatione. Exorret nutritionally adequate diet plu essen..tial non-food requiroesots is not disposal may include the co11ctico and disposal. icih or without affordable. treatment, of human excrete and Walte..w.ter by water-borne systems Estimated relative poverty income level (iS$ per capita) - yyban and rural- or the use of pit privies and siia nstallations. Relativ- poverty Income level is that income level less than one-third Ponu_lat!_on psf Jhy_alcla - fP.ulst ion dividad by nunber of yrciicPer capita p.r.o.e. income of the country. physicians qualified from a medIcl onnl at univaralty local. fEtiested ponltinbowocrynomleeJecn)-nbnadrus- Populatlo ___aer nnn aif5pro - ouuinn bddb nuber of P.rc.ot uf populuti-ntra and rur all who are eitiher ",nbn-ut. poor' or practicing asIa and female grad 0cr nurt-. proctlc-I nurse., and "relatIv- poor' whichever is greater. Econom1c and Smoial Data Division Economic Analysia and Projections Department  SQZGL. - ICOMIC IVtpC AASE m Louts IdsssUt". Pr3oianmGot eat.. 0 dl)l 1985s0.t .9tta 17 191 172 U73 1074 1973 1076l 197 jj 122 12 IS 1 1970-75 1lz m r 959 97 11 11 s s (is billions of 1971 CPA') 1. -ofr 247 263 f1 32 li