Updating report on the World Bank research program (Vol. 6 of 6) : Report of the transport research review panel

20310 Vol. 6 REPORT OF THE TRANSPORT RESEARCH REVIEW PANEL April 1979 FILE COPY Transport Research Review Panel Report Table of Contents C11APTER Page No. I. INTRODUCTION A. Terms of Reference ................................ 1 3. Work of the Panel ................................. 1 C. Organization of the Report ........................ 2 II. REVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH A. General Overview .................................. 3 3. General Evaluation ................................ 6 C. The Execution of the Transport Research ........... 7 D. Relations of Research and Bank Operations ......... 8 E. Relations with Member Countries ................... 9 III. FUTURE LINES OF RESEARCH A. Highways .......................................... 10 3. Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction ...................................... 12 C. Ports and Shipping ................................ 13 D. Railways .......................................... 15 E. Research into Rural Roads and their Socio-Economic Impacts ............................ 17 F. Multimodal and Other .............................. 21 IV. RECOMMENDATIONS AND FUTURE PROGRAM A. General Recommendations ........................... 24 B. Future Programs and Priorities .................... 8 APPENDICES: I. MEMBERS OF THE PANEL ................................... 34 Page No. III. BIBLIOGRAPHY: Recent World Bank Transport Research Reports ................................................ 52 IV. TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE TRANSPORT RESEARCH REVIEW PANEL .................................................. 57 TABLES: 1. Transport Research Expenditures by Bank and Collaborating Institutions .............................. 4 2. Proposed Transportation Research Program FY79-83 ........ 29-30 I. INTRODUCTION A. Terms of Reference 1.01 The Transporz Research Review Panel (TRRP) is one of the groups established by the cci Bank whose task is to assist the Bank Management and Executive Directors in evaluating the effectiveness of past research efforts and determini, the size and nature of the program for the future. The case for undertaking research in the Bank the meaning and scope of the program have been wiZely discussed in the Bank; 1/ these issues were thus pursued by the Panel only in general terms. 1.02 The terms of reference of the groLp focussed on specific questions, answers to which could help the Bank in specifying its research task. In broad terms, they cover the following aspects: (a) Evaluation of the past and present transport research effort; (b) Efficiency .in the execution of the research; (c) Relation of research and Bank operations; (d) Relevance of research to the needs of member countries and effectiveness of dissemination; (e) Recommendations for future research in the transport field. 1.03 Transport research is among the longest established and most important research programs of the Bank. As research activities have widened, many research projects which originated from transportation activities have extended into other areas, such as rural and urban development, or human nutrition and health. Notwithstanding the relationship of those activities with the present research program in transportation and the overlapping that occurs, the Panel focussed primarily on those broader aspects that are specifically the task of the Transportation Department mainly in the case of rural development. Links and relations that seemed important are briefly referred to and gaps, where perceived, pointed out. The subject of urban transport was not dealt with, because it is the responsibility of another -2- 1.05 The TRRP met three times for one week in each session. The first session in July 1978 was primarily devoted to briefings by the researchers; meetings with executives and staff of the CPS, DPS and the Research Comittee; and an initial discussion with regional staff as to their suggestions for future research. The second session in October-November 1978 served mainly to obtain the views of Bank regional staff on the research program: its usefulness for Bank operational staff and for the borrower countries; the adequacy of dissemination of research results; and what they considered as priority areas for future research. During the October session a first rough draft of the report was produced and widely circulated for comment; it also served as a working basis for the members of the TRRP to be revised and complemented in the interim before the final meeting. The third and final meeting, the main aim of which was to produce the final version of the report, took place in February-March 1979. C. Organization of the Report 1.06 The report is organized as follows: Chapter II gives a brief evaluative overview of the transport research program, followed by a general evaluation of the past and present research and treats the issues included in the terms of reference of the TRRP. The specific assessment of each current line of research, i.e.: (a) Highway Design and Maintenance Standards (b) Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction (c) Ports (d) Railways (e) Socio-economic Impact of Rural Roads is given in Appendix II. The different parts of this Appendix were drafted by the member of the Panel whose main professional interest coincided with the subject under analysis. The group as a whole then discussed and analyzed each section and in general terms agreed with its content. Appendix III includes a list of the recent World Bank Transport Research Reports. Chapter III presents a description of possible lines for future research. Each section starts with ideas regarding future work on the research projects presently under way; next are suggestions for research into new topics. These were again developed by members of the zrous stee- -3- II. REVIEW OF PAST RESEARCH A. General Overview 2.01 Table 1 provides a list of the nineteen transport research projects (ten 1/ undertaken with aid of Research Committee funds and nine, generally much smaller, carried out with Departmental resources) under review, including the manpower and expenditures for the period 1971-1978. 2.02 The two largest research studies -- Highway Design and Main- tenance, and Labor Capital Substitution in Civil Construction -- are basically engineering-economic studies addressed to the choice of appro- priate standards and technology in some of the most important areas of public investment decision making the Bank and developing countries face. The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Study itself constitutes a major program of research initiated by the Bank, but being executed in collaboration with leading research institutions in several countries, both developed and developing. Its primary objectives are: (i) to provide a fundamentally new primary data base delineating the physical and economic interrelationships of highway design, deterioration, maintenance and user costs on a more rigorous scientific basis and covering a much wider portion of the complete spectrum of road conditions typical of developing countries than heretofore available and (ii) to incorporate these relationships in highway planning models to evaluate alternative project design and Mainten- ance strategies. The Labor Substitution Study, which encompasses not only road construction and maintenance but also other civil works, particularly irrigation canals, is also a large study extending over several years which has been financed jointly with several countries and executed under Bank leadership. It arose from the concern to find efficient technologies which would utilize to the maximum extent the abundant surplus of labor available in many countries. Its objectives have been to establish the technical feasibility of alternative civil construction technologies utilizing dif- ferent combinations of labor and equipment and in turn to relate these technically feasible solutions to relative factor scarcities so that the economically optimum technology can be determined in any given case. The cost of delays in project execution are included and practical problems in the organization and management of construction projects have been examined. The interrelationships between choice of technology and project design have also been investigated. 2.03 The principal concern of both these large studies is the develoDment of a sound primary data base from which to derive reliable -4- Table 1: Transport Research Expenditures by Bank and Collaborating Institutions FY 1971 - 1978 ($ Current Prices) Definite Future Commit-e Bank Bank Other Bank Other Staff Funds Funds Funds Funds (man-months) ('000$) 70-0s MO~-00) (1000 S Highway Design and Maintenance Standards 120 603.6 460 80 10 Model Development (670-27) 13 122.7 Kenya Study (670-27) 17 242.2 410 a/ India Study (670-27) 9 126.3 50b 80 450 Road Analysis Model (RAM) 28 Other 53 c/ 112.4 c/ Substitution of Labor & Equipment in Civil Construction (670-26) 135 759.7 1,147.1 d/ 67 Ports 27 31.0 Port Pricing Policies (671-13) 3 31.0 PORTSIM Model 24 Railways 38 133.8 Railways Costing Manual (RPO 223) 2 10.9 Economic Role of Railways (671-50) 11 5.3 Railway Subsidies in Europe 6 15.0 Railways Action Plans Review 2 24.9 Financial Analysis Model (FAST) 14 60.5 Railway Model 3 17.2 Rural Roads 73 178.1 80.7 Appraisal Methodology 13 Yemen (YAR) Study (670-29) 25 54.9 16.2 e/ Ethiopia Study (670-71) 6 20.0 Madagascar Study (671-14) 20 103.2 22.5 e/ Research Design (Kenya/ Brazil) 9 42.0 f/ Total 393 1,706.2 1,687.8 80 1,127.8 a/ Estimate of expenses to U.K. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1971-75; additional contributions in kind were made by the Kenya Ministry of Works. b/ Estimate of expenses to the Central Road Research Institute, New Dehli. c/ Approximately 27 man-months of Bank staff time and approximately $20,000 of Bank funds have been spent in support of the massive Brazil UNDP highway research project, $2.4 million of which is funded by UNDP and upwards of$12 million by the Government of Brazil. d/ US$1,825,000 equivalent has been contributed to this study by the Governments of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Japan, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. - 5 - taken a number of years to carry out and have required substantial funds from many sources -- which are unlikely to have been generated without the Bank's involvement and leadership. Both studies address key problems for developing countries and both have produced results which have already been incorporated in Bank projects in several countries and their use is now beginning to grow rapidly. Their ultimate usefulness will depend on their adaptability to the widely varying range of conditions (physical, economic, social) in the Bank's member countries, and the effectiveness of the effort made by the Bank to disseminate and propagate their use. 2.04 A second group of much smaller studies deals with ports and railways -- areas of large Bank investments -- and concentrates on problems of adequate pricing and efficient operation of existing facilities. In railways earlier efforts were limited to two small but excellent efforts -- the first a railway costing methodology and the second a review of operational Action Plans to improve railway operating efficiencies -- and more recently develop- ment of the Financial Analysis System (FA5T) which has provided an easily usable computer model for financial analyses that has proved popular with users in other sectors as well as railways. The recently initiated studies on the Economic Role of the Railways and Railway Modelling are intended (inter alia) to develop better methods of forecasting railroad traffic demands, analyzing the role of railways in national transport and planning investments. Undoubtedly of high value in an era when railways around the world are increasingly in financial straits, thesE' projects may well prove to be a major research undertaking as the Bank searches for a better basis to guide its railway lending. 2.05 The question of adequate pricing has important implications not only for economic, but also for social reasons. This has been evident in the pioneering work developed by the Bank in earlier years for road pricing; the current work on the application of marginal cost pricing to port operations is a logical continuation of these efforts in a new field. The theoretical work done so far is outstanding; its applicability in practice will vary from country to country, but will probably be enhanced when the findings of the research are tested in case studies (now underway) and subsequently summarized and translated into manual form for greater simplicity of application. 2.06 A third group, dealing with rural roads, has a broader and, in some respects, more ambitious approach. While concerned with the problems of economic evaluation, it concentrates on the development of new approaches and benefit measures rather than on the calibration and fine- tuning of existing ones. Rather than taking postulated project effects I- - - - - _-- -- - ont- n i f i rArion of interdisciplinary or multi-sector inputs (transport, marketing, agriculture, community organization, 'regional' analysis) . To develop and test the new approach, a small program of before and after case studies was launched in three countries beginning in 1973. These studies examine three basic sets of issues: (i) the distribution of benefits among truckers, traders, producers, consumers, and how this distribution is affected by institutional factors such as the structure of the trucking industry or land cenure patterns; (ii) producers' response to higher farmgate prices, lower input costs, and improved quality of service; and (iii) non-transport constraints which might prevent producers from responding to the incentives provided by the road project, e.g., the availability of required resources, attitudes, risk prefer- ences, etc. Given the importance of agricultural populations in developing countries, and the key role of food production in the world, che relevance of the subject is unquestioned. The quality of the work undertaken has been high. Despite the absence of useful precedents in this type of research there has been emphasis on rigorous techniques in the three case studies undertaken to date. Additional work will need to focus on establishing what are the key parameters needed as inputs to a socio-economic analysis, for which simplified tools (manuals, computerized programs, etc.) can be developed and refined. B. General Evaluation 2.07 Looked at as a whole, the transport research program under review has few signs of actually being a "program". Rather, research has been initiated in areas where the need for a better data base or for new analytical tools became apparent in Bank transport project preparation and evaluation. This ad hoc aDoroach is quite correct, as long as care is taken that the Bank continues to concentrate -- as it has done to date -- on those areas of resaarch where its comparative advantage is stron3ac:. Given s su>:=:ant role in gathering and processing information on most of the world's economies in the course of its normal activities, the Bank is particularly well equipped to (a) determine what essential pieces of basic information needed for project work are not available; and (b) secure the cooperation of a wide range of member country agencies and international institutions in estab- lishing them. Development of generally applicable methods and operational tools from the case studies undertaken is important and should be pursued vigorously. 2.08 Increasingly, the research has addressed broader issues as concern about distributional effects and other social impacts has increased and as the need for intersectoral or regional approaches to some develop- ment programs has become more obvious. It should continue to do so. However, care must be taken that the models developed are relevant to the needs of Bank project work, and are manageable and useful tools to aid the evolvement nf nPw nnlirv dirrerions bnth for the Bank and its member countries. bridging of the gap between theoretical models and what reality can supply in the form of empirically established relationships. In the case oF highways, civil construction technology and socio-economic impacts of rural roads this has been an enormous task, which has involved literally hundreds of thousands of field observations on engineering and economic relationships over several years in remote corners of the world and intensive analytical effort to translate findings into operational tools. The results have been commensurate to the effort: this work is likely to supplant much of the eaisting literature of planning coefficients on the economic benefits of ,highways; a solid body of information on which to -ase choice of factor mix civil construction has been established for the first time which has already contributed to the introduction of more a:=r:oriate technolozies in several countries; and the basis has been laid for a rigorous evaluation Of the socic-economic impacts of rural roads which is sorely needed co better guide major investment decisions in the increasincl imoortant rural develop- ment sector. The overall accomplishment has indeed Deen impressive, clearly placing the Bank and its collaborators in a preeminent position among the world's leading research centers on the problems of transPorzation in developing countries. While these large, Long-term efforts have tended to preempt much of the limited available Bank resourcas, it must be recognized, first, that these fundamentally important works would not have been done without Bank leadership and second, that the Bank's own contribution has been a fraction of the total costs which have largely been paid for by other donor agencies and governments who see themselves as direct beneficiaries of the research. 7.10 Finally, it seems important at this stage to point to the recommended characteristics of future developments wizth respe: -o the pro ec s cescribed. Emphasis should clearly shift from the research activity proper to wider application and dissemination of results. This is particularly true for the first group of 'engineering studies' , while for the second and third groups (ports, railways and rural roads) a broadening of the data base might have to go hand in hand with the development of operational tools for economic and social analysis and evaluation of the projects, and their pricing, organization, operation and management aspects. C. The Execution of the Transport Research 2.11 The execution of the transport research projects has been under- taken by staff members directly or, particularly for the larger projects, in collaboration with other institutions or by consultants under the supervision of staff members. It is recommended that this approach be continued, that is, studies which focus on data collection, specific - . 1 -' - - - ------1 ei- rnntracted out. -8- 2.12 The above approach has implications concerning the question of appropriate Bank resources to be allocated for research in transportation. In the past, for the larger projects the Bank has relied on other donor agencies and developing country governments themselves to finance the great majority of costs and the Bank has limited its staff commitment primarily to supervision and monitoring of external researchers. While the net result has been that the limited resource commitment by the Bank has had a much magnified impact, this strategy has also had some limitations. Research on highway design and maintenance standards, in particular, was delayed by at least three years as the study fully prepared in Western Africa in 1972 had to be abandoned for want of co-financing, and the sub- sequent study in India was similarly delayed. Since the total costs of the research are an insignificant fraction of -he annual investments in highways, perhaps it would have been preferable for the Bank to have put in a larger, more concentrated effort to have gained earlier benefit of the research. Certainly now that much of this research is reaching completion, the Bank should make a concerted effort to evaluate it and translate it into operationally useful tools. By its nature much of the work must be done internally within the Bank rather than by outsiders. Although it is outside the panel's purview to specify overall amounts of resources to be allocated to the research program in the future, the lirection of the recommendations is towards increased staff requirements. D. Relations of Research and Bank Operations 2.13 Of particular importance is the issue of how the Bank's research is connected with its other activities. In the specific case of transport research, given the long history of research in the field, the past involve- ment in this research of executives now working in other parts of the Bank, and the immediate relevance of the work done to numbers of problems under analysis in the Bank, it appears that the links to Bank operations are strong. In fact, as mentioned earlier, most of the research emerged from perceived needs of Bank operational staff a id feeds into the process of project analysis inside the Bank and with the countries concerned. For instance, the approaches developed in the Highway Design and in the Labor Capital Substitution studies have already had major impact on several projects approved for Bank financing within the last two years. 2.14 Regarding the dichotomy of research in response to perceived operational needs (which tends to be narrowly focussed) and the inherent dynamics of the research process proper (which tends to widen the research horizon) the following comment is offered. Given the wide variety of particular needs and the constraints -- human and financial -- to answer all - ---- i mp(iinmi term -9 2.15 A last important point concerns t'he communication process inside the Bank. Nothing can replace direct discussion between the parties con- cerned in the research and application ends on the issues of priorities, relevance, and usefulness. It seems that the Transportation Department has been applying that approach. It is commendable and should be reinforced. E. Relations with Member Countries 2.16 The question of the impact of the Research on member countries could be addressed only partially through discussions with Bank staff and from the experience of some of the members of the TRRP. It is difficult co draw general conclusions from these. Nevertheless, some specific points seem to emerge. 2.17 The first is that in the cases where effort was spent on trying to reach a convergence of the perceived needs on the part of the country and the Bank, the results tended to be highly positive; outstanding examples of this are the Highway Design Studies in Brazil and India which address important investment decision problems in those countries and where the great majority of costs and effort is borne by those governments rather than the Bank itself. Of course, the convergence was dependent on the involvement and commitment of the government agencies, and on the will of the Bank officials to invest time in appropriate communication. 2.18 The second is a consistent stress of the need to improve the dissemination of the research undertaken. This process covers a whole range of aspects, starting from the production and distribution of appropriate reports and manuals, through the organization of seminars and finally to long run considerations such as the type of academic connection needed to channel new ideas to future generations. 2.19 The question of whether the Bank should attempt, through its own research activity, to strengthen the research institutions in develop- ing countries is an important one. On balance, such institution-building should not be the main aim of the Bank research program per se. It is a worthwhile and extremely important task, but it should probably be tackled separately; in any case, it should not interfere with the research needs of the Bank. What is required is the closest possible contact between the research units of the Bank and relevant institutions throughout its member countries. They ought to be considered especially qualified partners because of their knowledge of local conditions and they ought to be offered opportunities to compete for research contracts of the Bank. This will be a most useful contribution to the strengthening of research and evaluation - 10 - countries which were felt to be researchable; second, the need to better exploit the results of major research now being completed by the Bank and the much larger work of the research community as a whole outside the Bank; and third, the comparative advantage of the Bank in conducting or organizing research. 3.02 The Bank has great comparative advantage for projects summing up available knowledge and its borrowers' relevant project experience in 'state- of-the-art' surveys and review papers on particular issues, with appropriate comparative statistics. The panel feels strongly that such projects should be carried out systematically and much more widely than today. These ideas and others are discussed below. In a few instances the ideas are grouped under the heading of miscellaneous technical guidelines. A. Highways 3.03 The work on the Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM) will be finished during the planning period. The model will greatly help in the choice of relevant standards in road construction and maintenance. Already the weight of problems in road planning is shifting to maintenance and traffic management. In future the panel clearly foresees another shift in planning attention to organizational and administrative problems. The research program reflects this shift in priorities. 3.04 Further Work on HDM: The work on HDM should be completed by the addition of data and experiences from Brazil and India. These findings as well as other sources of information may imply some substantial revisions and extensions of the present HDM. But a useful model already exists based on the Kenya study and other available knowledge; both the formal model structure and a user's manual should be published and widely circulated. Deliberate efforts should be taken to have the model effectively applied. Seminars and systematic training should be carried out. A simplified version, possibly in the form of tables, should be produced for people evaluating, e.g., only separate road sections. The earlier publication on - quantification of road user savings should be updated, and finally a book on highway design and maintenance economics may be published forming, so to speak, a natural and temporary end to the great effort of evaluating design standards in road construction. Bank staff should stimulate other agencies to carry on further research as necessary to adapt HDM to local conditions, but the Bank should finance such undertakings only as a last resort. 3.05 Maintenance: It is necessary for any country to keep sufficient 1-olq of mAintenance on its highways. However, there is an expressed lack - 11 - Design research. Further experience in pursuit of the policy emphasis sketched in the paper will probably show particular aspects of the problem which need to be studied in greater depth and will need to be incorporated into the list of priorities at the first time of revision. 3.06 Highway Safety: Highway traffic safety imposes grave problems on all countries that have reached a certain level of motorization. However, it is not at all clear how traffic safety will affect Bank appraisal work and lending procedures. The panel suggests a project to sum up the knowledge on accidents, their possible explanations and measures to reduce them. The project may end up with a program for future work on traffic safety problems. At least it will develop a better basis of knowledge about past research and experience in road safety programs to the benefit of borrowing countries. 3.07 Road User Charges: The issue of relevant road user charges, tax and subsidy structures is an old and important one, on which the Bank has often called for studies by its member countries. Depending on the prevailing policy in a country one may get distortions that may cause severe problems. The panel urges the Bank to embark upon a project that will review past experience in depth, sum up the prevailing policies in selected countries, and evaluate their likely effects. 3.08 Bus and Trucking Industries: Regulation and Organization: The project will lead to a framework for appraising projects in the fields of bus and truck services and for advising countries on the institutional set- up and regulation of such services (licenses, charges, taxes, etc). We note that the Bank more than ten years ago commissioned research on the subject of trucking industry regulation and that it is also now increasingly receiv- ing requests for financial assistance to the road transport industry. The earlier research needs to be brought down to a more operational level and a methodology evolved for assessing the sacrifice involved in -- or economic cost of -- regulatory controls as against free market operation. More attention needs to be given to alternative ways of managing and organizing transport companies and their pros and cons, and a better basis developed for the Bank's potentially important participation in assisting countries on development of transport services. The project may also comprise employment and development aspects of the transport industry. 3.09 Miscellaneous Technical Guidelines: It is vital for the good use of HDM as well as for road planning generally that important factors like present and future traffic and its composition, and road network conditions hP known. The Bank should review available literature and propose and dis- - 12 - promoting in urban areas. The Bank should sum up existing knowledge, for the better use of the existing road network. However, considerable caution must be exercised when applying traffic speed/flow or capacity relationships developed in Europe or North America to the very different traffic charac- teristics of mcst developing countries. It is to be hoped that the research in Brazil and especially India on traffic flow simulation will lead to improved procedures for dealing with the problems of congestion. B. Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction 3.11 In order to enhance the effectiveness of the investment already made we believe that the study should continue, primarily focussing on the socio-economic i=pact of labor-intensive programs, at the national and on the local level, on such matters as balance of payments, community integration, income distribution in the areas directly affected, and on the effect of unemployment on development. Also attention could usefully be given to labor-intensive construction beyond roads and irrigation works. Furthermore, it needs to be taken into account that, given developing countries' typical shortages of foreign exchange for purchasing and repairing equipment and given the scarcity of equipment operators, use of labor-intensive techniques can often substantially increase the total volume of works that can actually be accomplished in a given period. In this way, past research efforts will yield more benefits both for the Bank and member countries, given the low marginal cost of such work. In addition, the Bank has a comparative advantage in exploiting existing experiences from certain countries which at present are implementing labor-intensive policies; brief comprehensive evaluations of these initial efforts should be prepared and disseminated. 3.12 The scope of the study should be broadened by taking low to middle income countries into account. A study which concentrates only on the very poor countries will not arrive at proper solutions for somewhat more advanced countries, mainly because of lack of information and because of the special conditions in many of these countries. Furthermore, it happens that precisely in low to medium income countries, local consulting firms and institutions have achieved certain technical experiences. They could work not only as efficient suppliers of information but could also be involved in the research process proper. 3.13 But the main need under this topic is to assist the development of more pilot and demonstration projects in labor-intensive construction in a wider variety of countries that are not at present using such techniques, to participate actively in the implementation of such projects, and to ensure systematic promotion of the handbook, when completed, among member country - 13 studies related to its promotion. Therefore, it would be advisable that the Bank help its member countries by conducting research on the feasibility of developing or improving local construction industries. 3.15 Thus, for more effective pursuit of the policy established by the Bank in 1974 for explicitly supporting the development of domestic construc- tion industries in borrowing member countries, and as a further broadening of the work on labor-capital substitution in civil construction, reviews are needed, for a sample of about five countries, of the factors inhibiting the growth of the domestic construction industry (of all the various levels of capital-labor intensity appropriate for different types of works) and of the ways in which growth can be effectively stimulated. This would be combined with an assessment of the effectiveness of the various initiatives taken by the Bank in particular countries over the last five years, in order to pro- duce, as early as possible, a position paper on the 'state-of-the-art' in strengthening these industries -- in order to provide government officials and Bank and other agency staff better guidance on planning, implementing and evaluating programs to strengthen domestic construction capacities. Such a study would need to be coordinated with other departments, in Regions and in Central Projects Staff, such as Industrial Development and Finance, and Education. C. Ports and Shipping 3.16 Port management needs in developing countries tend to be concerned with the specific rather than the general (e.g., should a certain type of machine be purchased or not?). Broader policy questions are usually addressed mostly at the ministerial level. Hence, to meet ports' specific needs (and these are frequently encountered by Bank field staff) research could be done to see if it could be feasible to develop models to provide some answers to these specific questions. 3.17 Simulation of Port Operations: In many loans, debate arises as to the best type of equipment mix to be procured for serving the berths. This is because of the wide variety of handling equipment available in the market. The situation is analogous to that of selecting a suitable fleet of aircraft types to service the various routes taking into account distance travelled, load factor, etc. It would be useful if detailed simulation models could be developed in such a way as to simulate the sub-systems of the port. This would take into account such aspects as berth configuration, depth of back-up space, quality of maintenance of equipment, etc., so that various alternatives could be presented to decision makers as to the mix of equipment to be pur- ,I-Q- fnr qprvicin2 oresent and future traffic. - 14 - 3.19 Port Pricing and Investment Policies in Developing Countries: A general theoretical framework for the application of marginal cost pricing for congestion has now been developed, but there is still a long way to go before the theory can be usefully applied. Work is planned on port accounting systems to see whether they can already produce the information required to apply marginal pricing principles, and whether any administrative changes that might be necessary to produce such information regularly would be reasonable in cost. The opportunity would also be taken to review the difficulties that have often arisen in the past in implementation of the recommendations emerging from the port accounting studies that the Bank has promoted. 3.20 If the pricing approach proposed proves practically feasible and acceptable, then its implications for the programming of investment would merit additional attention. Since traffic can be forecasted and since port facilities are "lumpy" investments, the timing of construction, realiza- tion of the "correct" number of berths and acquisitions of other equipment to capture the trade is important. Hence future ports research work should aim at developing an easily applied methodology to time increases in port capacity in such a way as to meet the anticipated traffic while maximizing the net present values of revenues to the port. 3.21 Impact of Port Projects on Regional Development: There are two rather different dimensions to this question: (i) port industrial areas, as developed in countries such as France, Ireland and Singapore, with the issue being proper economic and institutional analysis of the interactions between port operations and the industrial activities, and (ii) the impact of containerization and its penetration into the broader port hinterland, with the issue being the distribution of benefits and costs from use of containers and the stimulus they can give to trade. These are major research areas and appropriate methodology which has been used in some developed countries could be examined to see whether it might be applied to developing countries. The results of the research would help Bank staff to better advise developing countries considering port construction and expansion, or the introduction of port manufacturing areas, and.contribute to a broader- based and more satisfactory appraisal of projects proposed for Bank financing. 3.22 Structure of Port Management Systems: Many ports in developing countries have ineffective management reporting systems; feedback is poor and long time lags occur between directives and implementation. Many of the problems faced by these ports are management rather than technical problems. The Bank in its review and appraisal of port investment projects already possesses enormous amounts of information and analysis on ports management structures, information and decision systems in various parts of the world. A enmnilption of this information would be useful. Included in the compila- - 15 - 3.23 Ocean Shipping Potential for Developing Countries: Development of a conceptual framework for a developing country's decision as to whether or not to go into ocean shipping or extend its present participation in this field, with collection of relevant data on countries' actual experience to date is desirable. Since this is an area of concern to more and more developing countries, and the Bank has apparently already received various requests for advice, we are pleased to see that the Transportation Department has already started a small amount of work internally on the subject, but we believe that the complexity of the issues involved and the difficulties of obtaining relevant empirical information are likely to require a more ambitious follow-up to the in-house effort in the form of a larger study. 3.24 Coastal Shipping Potential: A review of comparative experience (e.g., in Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, India, Hadagascar, Brazil) is proposed in this area of considerable potential for many countries but little Bank involvement to-date. This should investigate advantages of, and obstacles to, coastal shipping and explore the scope for relieving the latter. The question of appropriate technology should also be addressed. 3.25 Inland Waterways: Again, a review of comparative experience (e.g., for Egypt, Panama, Bangladesh, Burma, Belgium/France/Germany, Argentina/ Paraguay) is suggested. We understand that a number of projects are coming up in this area for possible Bank financing, but that the Bank does not have any in-house expertise in this field, so that a special effort is needed to review past experience and problems to enable the Bank to better direct the consultants who would be used for operational work. D. Railways 3.26 The Railways constitute a complex integrated system involving many technologies and management skills. Naturally the interesting suggestions put forward by the Bank staff as to possible research in the Railway field have been very many and of varied scope and importance. 3.27 There is little doubt that the work recently begun on (a) the Economic Role of the Railways and (b) the Railway Model ought to be given the highest priority for continuance and completion. The Economic Role study should enable better insights into the modal choice questions and determinants of rail traffic and assist significantly in future Bank Railway sector operations. The rail model should be particularly useful in project evaluation work and coordination of the system effects. IQGR Mny of the suRgestions from the regions for future research - 16 - to Bank staff (in other words lists of "recommended reading") on Railway issues which come up frequently in the appraisal of Railway projects. Further, the Transportation Department's initiative is to be strongly commended and its effort pursued of developing a "Transportation Resource Person" system in the Railway field for the Bank as a whole (as described in para. 4.04). 3.30 In addition to the above, there is a specific need for the Railway experts of CPS to organize the publication of more 'state-of-the-art' or survey papers. The Panel's detailed recommendations as to future research work including work of this character in the field of Railways are mentioned here briefly. 3.31 Comparative Costs of Rail and Other Modes: The Panel agrees with the Transportation Department's suggestion for a research study on the above subject combining theoretical and empirical work, to produce better benchmark and analytical frames for this type of analysis. Such work would complement and supplement the ongoing work on the Economic Role of the Railways, but, it should be mentioned, may perhaps reveal the need for a more elaborate Phase 2 research later. 3.32 Railway Training Issues: Bank staff have high-lighted as basic in many countries the problems regarding maintenance and operation skills. A study needs to be made of the training systems presently in use in repre- sentative countries and recommendations formulated for the guidance of borrowing countries as to how training may be brought up to satisfactory levels. 3.33 Electrification and Dieselization: The issue as to when electri- fication of even intensely used rail track/routes is justified rather than continuance with diesel is one of importance. The general issue has been examined in various studies, notably by British Railways and French National Railways. But these have not always been accepted as wholly objective and critical. The Bank should bring together and evaluate what has been studied and examine what more needs to be done. The study should deal inter alia with the energy sources (electric power/diesel oil) used by the two systems and how any changes that can be forecast in their relative prices in real terms over a medium period are likely to affect the question. 3.34 Restructuring Railway Systems - Closure of Sections/Services: It is well known that there is financial case in many railway systems for the closure of certain branch lines/stations and abandonment of certain services, perhaps even for a major curtailment of the Railway system. The issue comes up repeatedly in Railway project appraisals in various countries. - 17 - (ii) redundancy payments for labor displaced by closures and schemes for retraining and absorbing them elsewhere; (iii) transfer of financial respon- sibility for the decision on closure or continuance to the particular regional administration concerned, etc. An in-depth case study is needed of the situation in representative countries (including especially those recording some successes), covering the detailed case for closure or con- tinuance and ways of facilitating and achieving closure in appropriate cases. 3.35 Maintenance and Utilization of Equipment: The Bank's experience with Railway borrowers has shown the over-riding importance of the satisfactory .aintenance and utilization of equipment. The completed Action Plan Review reinforces this lesson very clearly. The question arises in an important way in the context of locomotive maintenance and utilization but it is very relevant as regards freight cars, passenger coaches and other equipment. A study which could provide the foundation for guidance to Bank staff and to the Railway borrowers is very necessary. 3.36 Other subjects recommended for study are: (1) Information systems in Railways: Data collecting that, at the minimum, should be organized for satisfactory maintenance, operation and investment planning; (2) Track wear related to maintenance and opecating conditions; (3) Signalling and telecommunication systems: Least cost solutions for the upgrading that would achieve the particular magnitudes of increase needed in line capacity consistent with safety. There may be a need felt in the coming years for one or two other technical studies. E. Research into Rural Roads and thefir Socio-Economic Impacts 3.37 The research on rural transport should not only be continued but expanded in different ways. It addresses itself to the Bank's present lending priorities in the rural sector, 1/ focussing on the poorer groups; this emphasizes the need for an approach in:egrating the social and economic factors, in an effort to solve some of the problems of rural development. Rural roads -- and the means used for moving people, commodities and infor- mation generally -- are a necessary and important component of many rural development projects; they may account for more than 50% of the cost. In this field many disappointing results stem from the inadequacy of tradi- - 5: m r. io-economic and - 18 - issues. A significant amount of resources (mainly Bank staff time) should be invested in order to explore these new avenues that may earn a good return for the Bank as well as for the countries concerned. It would be useful to continue along the innovative lines and methods of socio-ecnomic analysis developed in the Bank since the beginning of the seventies. 3.38 The Bank's operational need for deeper and better empirical information about the social as well as economic impact of rural roads and other rural infrastructure seems to be urgent. First, there are the ex-post evaluations of many past rural road projects and components which indicate disappointing impact compared to that expected; the response to that finding has been, quite rightly, to link rural road construction much more directly with simultaneous actions in other fields such as agricultural extension and marketing, but it is not yet clear whether this is a fully adequate solution. Second, while the Bank has taken very strong initiatives to promote projects which would help to solve the socio-economic problem of poverty, severe difficulties quite often arise in discussions with governments in reconciling their criteria for selection of roads for construction with the Bank's largely economically based selection criteria; the Bank should be in a better position to advise on what social effects roads (and other infrastructure) can really have. Third, we were very struck by the emphasis that several of the Regional Projects Directors placed on the difficulty of correctly forecasting even the types of impact presently stressed by the Bank -- such as on production and on transport costs -- because of lack of empirical knowledge about factors like farmer response, consumption elasticities and efficiency of transport service enterprises, which are heavily affected by behavioral and social considera- tions. The urgent need is thus for pooling of practical knowledge and expe- rience from a wide range of circumstances, and for methodology only to the extent necessary to sort and classify this empirical information in an opera- tionally applicable manner. 3.39 As transport needs of rural populations can only be analyzed in terms of a combination of socio-economic factors, a fair amount of research and experience in this respect has been accumulated by the Transportation Department; this is reflected in a number of reports and papers (see Appendix III). It follows the trend experienced on a world-wide basis in the field of transport economic research -- the recognition of the true nature of transport as a service intimately dependent upon the needs of the many different eco- nomic and social activities in a given area, which has led researchers to link transport with regional planning and spatial organization. This integrative approach has made transport research a multidisciplinary field, gathering specialists of various backgrounds -- engineering, economy, sociology, polit- - 19 - impacts of transport in rural areas. It seems highly desirable that a very significant part of the proposed research program be approached ultisectoraliy. For these reasons, we propose that this line of research be pursued in three different ways: a) continuing and completing the present socio-economic impact studies undertaken in the Transportation Department; b) launcning in this Department a limited set of new research topics in rural transportation; c) cuoperating with che Agriculture and Rural Development Department in a broad oased research program geared at the in-dept observa- tion and analysis of the socio-economic impacts of rural infra- structure (construction and operation); we recommend chat chis program be implemented by a multidisciplinary cask force. 3.11 Cooperative Research on the Socio-Economics Impacts of Rural infrL- structure: .umerous testimonies have been collected on eu desirability of such a program, through meetin5s with bank's staff and executives (C , nn Regions) in various sectors. A aeiber of Lne panel was deputed the s:ecific mission of exploring the subject with representacives of the AricuLture afnd Rural Development Department. iollowing these mieecings a road consensus was reached on the interest of the subject, its researchability and the principle of proposing to the Bank management the organization of a cooperative task- force. The main aims of the suggested lung-teri program proposed would be: - to explore the sucjec: in depth in order to le,rn th iesscis of previous experience in a systematic way; - to identify all the relevant factors (social, economic ana political); - to organize ther, so Chat Lhey can be given relative weights; - to detect the main interrelations between groups of factors; - to better relate strategic decisions and objectives concerning Rural Development (in a given area) and implementation oF infrastructure. A "Tentative Guideline for a Research Project on Socio-Econom,ic impacts ot Rural Infrastructure" has been prepared by a member of the panel. - 20 - 3.43 On-going Research: In the light of what has been said before, it seems essential that the Transportation Department receive the necessary . resources for continuing the on-going research on rural roads. This would contribute to the broader program outlined above. It should include dis- semination and improvement of operational tools like the RRPACK; development of appraisal methodology and preparation of a Rural Roads Handbook; follow-up on the Socio-Economic Impact Study in Brazil (a nationally supported project initiated in connection with a Bank loan); methodological approaches like those on the institutional aspects of rural roads and on the practical problems faced by transport service enterprises in the rural areas, including an assessment of the quality of service provided by the transport industry. 3.44 Follow-up Studies in Ethiopia and YAR: It seems wise to provide resources for implementing Phase II (the "after" study) in the two cases of rural roads in Ethiopia and the Yemen Arab Republic: otherwise, much of the potential benefits of the very innovative Phase I would be lost. 3.45 Rural Transport Needs: In line with the on-going research on transport services, it seems logical to do more work with a view to under- standing the transport needs of rural populations and the socio-cultural determinants of their desire for mobility at different levels of accessibility and development. At present, lack of empirical data in this area forms one of the major constraints on the development of simple, analytical tools in evaluation of rural roads. Feasibility studies for large transport projects typically develop traffic counts and forecasts for "with" and "without" project si:uations. For major highway projects where the investment is substantial, this can be done individually for each project-. For low-cost rural road projects such individual studies are seldom feasible, because they would become disproportionately expensive as well as logistically very difficult to implement. What is required are some means of forecasting traffic which are simpler and easier to apply (for instance to groups of roads of similar characteristics rather than to individual sections) yet which, at the same time, take adequate account of the critical local behavioral patterns. While freight traffic is relatively more easily predicted based on current and future economic activity in the road influence area, there is little basis for estimates of passenger travel demand. At present, not even order-of-magnitude estimates of differences in personal mobility of rural populations are avai- lable. Results from the few relevant studies undertaken (such as the socio- economic impact studies mentioned above) indicate that actual personal mobility in less developed societies may be only a fraction of that in developed countries, 1/ and that response to improved accessibility is quick and dramatic, while production effects may take somewhat longer to materialize. The proposed - --tion needed to link relative mobility - 21 - F. Multimodal and Other 3.46 Methods and Processes of Deregulation: As a follow-up to earlier research work on road and port pricing and trucking industry regulation, and in the line of bringing the results to greater operational applicability, analysis is needed of the problems and advantages actually experienced in deregulating transport industrIes and introducing more competitive pricing. The current experience of the United States in deregulating airlines, trucking, and, to some extent, shipping, would be analyzed for its implications for a4eveloping countries, both direct and as a parallel, and experience in some other particular cases -- e.g., railway freight and inter-urban bus services in Brazil, trucking in Kenya and Korea, railways and trucking in England, inter-scate trucking in India -- would be reviewed for its lessons, with special focus on the institutional and operational side. 3.47 Social Transfers through Transport Pricing: The pricing and sub- sidies policies, which the Bank is often called to advise upon, could be approached through models of transfer of benefits and costs (including nuisances, etc.) between different social groups; transport being as it seems, and in contrast to traditional Bank policy advice, one of the favorite tools of the governments to operate voluntarily or unwillingly such transfers. 3.48 Country Motorization Policies: Analysis is needed of the widely differing experiences among countries regarding the development of the private automobile as a means of transport, with assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of alternative restrictive policies cn growth of private cars. This wu enable the Bank to better assess countries' overall transport development strategies and strengthen its advice on taxation, promotion of public transport alternatives, subsidization, etc. 3.49 Aporopriate Vehicles for Rural Development: Following the very good response from numerous developing country institutions to the compilation of a catalogue on "Appropriate Technology in Rur:al Development: Vehicles Designed for On and Off Farm Operations" 1/, further work should be done on updating and expanding the catalogue on the basis o:, comments and data received from various sources in developing and developed countries. Also, the case for possible Bank support of research on further development and on small scale production of such "appropriate vehicles" should be examined. 3.50 Land-Use and Spatial Development Aspects of Transport Infrastruc- ture: The formative, if not dominating, impact of transport infrastructure investment on the spatial patterns of a country's development and geographical population distribution has been increasingly recognized in recent years - 22 - the regional development approach, which the Bank has fostered for limited rural areas, to the macro-scale and could be particularly important for countries which face large fundamental decisions on the pattern cf their spatial development over the next 20-30 years. 3.51 International Road Transport: A more comprehensive approach should be developed to the many aspects involved in development of road transport services between countries, including administrative aspects (such as insur- ance, licensing customs), engineering (highway design standards, road signs and driving rules) and broader economic and commercial questions. This is an area where the Bank has sometimes participated in financing particular infra- structure investments (with mixed pattern of results) but has not taken a broader approach. It is receiving particular attention in Africa now in the form of the African Transport and Communications decade 1978-88. The Trans- portation Department has identified a particular potential for preparing a comprehensive inventory of future possible integrated projects involving both mining or industry and international transport development, as a means to help promote project preparation and planning in a way to expedite achievement of better inter-African links. Pursuit of this good idea will take more resources for collection and analysis of information. 3.52 Freight Transport Chain: This is a model for analyzing transport by commodity from its point of origin as a raw material through all inter- mediate marketing, warehousing and processing stages to final distribution as a finished good, with a view to minimizing costs and identifying bottle- necks and any points of excessively high prices. A study applying and testing the model would be very useful in a broader approach to transport, and in support of general Bank policy concerns such as promotion of developing country export earnings and in connection with the containerization issues. 3.53 Domestic Regional Aviation: In addition to the very useful work in developing new broader methods of socio-economic analysis of rural road projects which was started in the 1970s, special subsidiary effort, adopting the same broad framework, is needed for analysis of domestic regional aviation as an alternative to roads, since the overall review of Aviation's Role in Development, which the Transportation Department has been doing, and expe- rience in many countries suggest that this may be an area of potential in particularly remote parts of much of the developing world. Where the provi- sion of some form of transport access would be generally accepted as essential from an administrative and social point of view, even though it cannot for the moment be in any way financially viable, air transport may have lower total costs (capital in form of both infrastructure and vehicles, plus maintenance And nnerational costs) than road transport; moreover, air transport may have -..a' in-,r-ead of - 23 - 3.54 Aircraft Selection Criteria: As a further step in strengthening the attention given to aircraft and air services in Bank work on airport projects, and to respond to felt needs of borrowing countries, a model could usefully be developed for analyzing alternative route structures and configurations for domestic air services to help decide what size and type of aircraft should be purchased. Such models have been developed by aircraft manufacturers, but they need review and consolidation by a more neutral source, with particular emphasis on the parameters important to developing countries. 3.55 Energy Aspects of Alternative Transport Modes and of Different Technologies within Modes: More work should be done to bring together available information in this field (comparing, for instance, the relative energy efficiencies of rail vs. road vs. air; diesel vs. electric power; gasoline vs. alcohol vs. air cushion; airplane vs. airship, etc.). This research should be done in close coordination with the Energy Unit in the Energy, Water, Telecommunications Department. 3.56 Risk Analysis Case Studies: Work on this subject would build on earlier Bank efforts in this field with a view to developing an operational methodology to better handle engineering, economic and social risks in trans- port project evaluation. 03.57 Compendia of Cross-Country Comparative Statistics: There would be considerable interest, both inside and outside the Bank, in more compilations of transport statistics for wide ranges of countries, on subjects such as: - share of transport investment in total budget - per kilometer cost of construction and maintenance by type of road - kilometers of road/capita by country and sub-regions - vehicles/capita by country and sub-regions - vehicle fleet composition - vehicle operating costs by vehicle type - productivities (e.g., of port gangs, road construction gangs) - utilization rates (e.g., of construction equipment/railroad equipment) - modal splits for passengers and freight and their evolution over time - availability and utilization rates for different items of road maintenance equipment We are somewhat surprised to find how very little of such work the Bank has so far been able to do, despite the unique wealth of information to which - 24- IV. RECOMMIIENDATIONS AND FUTURE PROGRAM A. General Recommenda tions 4.01 Besides the preceding rather long list of subjects which we have compiled and which we think merit close consideration for inclusion in the tuture research program, we would like to convey general impressions which emerge from the many discussions we have had, both internally as a panel and with Bank staff from many different offices. 4.02 The key issue seems to us to be how to make best use of the rather particular comparative advantages of the Bank's Transportation Department, as it is and as it could be, for doing reseach that can help the Bank's member countries. The fact that the Bank is such a highly operational organization, compared for instance with most other international units or organizations concerned with transportation, means that the Bank is in a unique position to sponsor and undertake research that is (i) highly relevant to investment and operating decisions, (ii) based on actual experience in a wide range of countries, (iii) directly linked with the development of management and analytical capacities in the developing countries, and (iv) applied relatively quickly to the actual practice of development through Bank-assisted projects and Bank advice on transport policies. All of these faculties depend on the basic constitution of the Bank as a cooperative organization communicating in trust with a large number of countries, developed and developing, on concrete policy and investment decisions. The Bank is in a sense the nucleus of a special type of communications network. 4.03 As the hub of such a communications network, the Bank has a special responsibility to draw its members' attention to research done in other countries that is relevant to their problemas or research that needs to be done to respond to those problems. This communication functions in several ways -- through Bank staff advising individual countries on particular investment projects and policy problems, through active Bank participation in interna- tional meetings on transport and transport research, through Bank contacts with transport research organizations in developed countries on subjects relevant to the developing world that need to be researched, and through Bank assistance to developing countries in organizing meetings with international participation to discuss and analyze their own operational experience and research results. Action has been fairly steady along all those lines. But it has sometimes been suggested that the Bank should take more of a leadership role, organizing international transport research meetings or preparing a draft international agenda of transport research priorities for the developing - 25 - 4.04 It means that it is even more important for the Bank to know about transport research going on elsewhere than to undertake such research itself, and that the Bank needs to use much more research than it would itself produce. This seems to be the point underlying the fact that quite a let of the topics listed in the preceding pages require more 'state-of-the-art or 'survey' papers or practical notes, adjusted to Bank needs and situation, and written for busy operational staff, rather than deeper, original research. The same point is manifested in the Transportation Department's effort to develop a 'Transportation Resource Person' system for the Bank as a whole, whereby Bank transportation specialists, in whatever department, would take some special responsibility to keep abreast of work going on outside the Bank in areas of special interest to them, and to brief colleagues elsewhere in the Bank upon request. The apparently large current demand among Bank staff for review papers and advice of this sort may reflect a feeling that staff have been too busy operationally to keep up sufficiently with outside work. In some organizations such work would not be considered research, but it seems clear that at least in the Transpo-tation Sector in the Bank it does not get done except under the broad heading of research, and we see nothing wrong with so entitling it there. 4.05 But there are also some other common elements and themes that seem to emerge in the list of topics and in our discussions about how they might be handled, and that relate to the type of research that the Bank itself should undertake or sponsor. A recurring theme in our own assessments of the past projects, and in many of the proposals for 4urther work, is the need for more attention to both institutional aspects (or what might be called the non-economic aspects of management) and to social aspects: how to make labor-intensive construction programs, or economic deregulation of transport, or highway maintenance programs, or port efficiency improvements, actually work in practice; and how to maximize desirable social impact of rural roads, or labor-intensive construction, or rural aviation, or transport pricing. Another notable point is what a relatively significant proportion of the new subjects suggested for research effort fall into a category that might be called "general framework" representing generally fresh approaches to the transport sector in a fairly broad sense, rather than a detailing of a particular method or aspect of project analysis; this may reflect in part not only the Bank's broadening view as to what criteria are appropriate to take into account in project assessment (various social measures, etc.) but also the Bank's need, with the new type of 'sector lending' that it is undertaking in transport, to advise countries on broader issues than often handled in the past. 4.06 We have also noted the stress placed by many of the Regional -ncff nf the Bank on their desire to know more fully and more - 26 - 4.07 This matter of borrower staff training seems to us to be one of the most important aspects of the dissemination question. Dissemination, both by the researchers themselves and by the Bank staff more generally, is now clearly the priority task for most of the major research projects undertaken in the past -- particularly the Highway Design and Maintenance model and the Labor-Capital study -- and some of the smaller projects. The Transportation Department could usefully take further initiatives to assist dissemination -- put more emphasis on simple operational tools of all sorts as the highest-priority output of research work, circulate such tools even before they are fully perfected and produce expeditious revisions in light of practical experience, make use of a standard mailing list of country transport planning units for regular distribution of Bank papers of general interest in the transport field, and possibly work even more than in the past with the EDI as a channel for dissemination of research results. 4.08 The main lesson of past experience seems to be that much the most useful form of dissemination is not mere production of bulky user-manuals but direct work, preferably by the research staff themselves in cases of any significant complexity, with staff from the borrower organizations -- such as was done last year in connection with transfer of the Highway Design and Maintenance model to Bolivia and Brazil and on labor-intensive construc- tion with the Philippines, Haiti and a number of other countries. Such ad hoc demonstrations, or cooperative endeavors, seem invaluable. And the corollary is that they should be followed up over time, so that improvements made to the Bank-originated models and approaches by the borrowing organizations will be reviewed and re-incorporated into the Bank's own version wherever such improve- ients would seem to be of wider relevance. This would appear to be the way to "multiply the results" of the Bank's research efforts. 4.09 We also feel that dissemination could be assisted in the future by fuller involvement of developing countries' agencies (operating agencies and consultants at least as much as, and probably more than, research institu- tions) in the earlier stages of the research; or to put the point in another broader way, that the Bank's comparative advantage in transport research could be more fully realized by a better symbiosis between the Bank's own research efforts and the planning and policy studies that the Bank often encourages its borrowers to undertake with aid of loan/credit financing. Such studies -- on port pricing and accounting, road network planning, maintenance organization, trucking regulation, road user charges, monitoring of rural road construction techniques and socio-economic impact, railway accounting and costing, railway line and service closures -- respond directly to important operational needs. We have the impression that, although the Bank has generally advised on nf reference and initiation of such studies, difficulties have often - 27 - 4.10 It obviously could not be expected that all such studies would correspond to a current active research interest in the Bank, nor that all such current research interest would correspond to borrower studies. But we feel that there should be more scope than filled in the past for the research staff to contribute to improving such operational studies and for the studies to contribute in turn to broadening the base of research results (if with a little delay) and developing local capacity to put Bank research results to beneficial use. 4.11 While some of the suggestions in the preceding pages -- the 'Resource Person' system, use of a mailing list of country transport planning units and a better tie-in between research and loan/credit-supported studies in borrowing countries -- could serve to amplify the Bank's capacity for handling research even with present resources, we would be doing a disservice not to make abundantly clear the overall implication of our findings, that more staff- resources are needed to properly realize the Bank's comparative advantage in transport research. Even some of these steps have been held up so far by staff-shortages, and most of the suggestions we have made -- more 'state-of- the-art' papers and research communication role, more active and ad hoc dissemination and follow-up of research results, more specialist advice to borrowers on operational studies that relate to subjects of Bank research, more gathering and feed-back of comparative information about innovative projects -- clearly depend for their implementation on Bank staff resources, rather than consultants or Research Budget funds. The Transportation Depart- ment has been spending a total of some 6-7 staff man-years per year on the type of research (including 2-3 man-years on policy related research) which we have covered in our review, and we have some doubt, for instance in connection with the Highway Design and Maintenance research, as to whether the staff- resources were not spread a little too thin; more concentration of effort might have brought somewhat earlier pay-off. 4.12 On the other hand, valuable and useful as we think the studies and research we have earlier listed at such length would be, we would not want to give the impression that we recommend a build-up of staff to cover all these subjects adequately within the next few years. Even with more staff- time devoted to active dissemination, and more involvement of borrower agencies in the research itself, there is clearly a limit to the absorptive capacity of Bank operational staff and borrowers for Bank research results, hard as it is to identify precisely where that limit is; and there is a limit to the number of areas of emphasis that the Bank transportation staff as a whole can usefully pursue in any one period. He suspect that an appropriate effort for the immediate future might be to raise the man-years devoted to - 28 - B. Future Programs and Priorities 4.13 The fundamental guiding principle of Bank transportation research is that it be addressed to help solve significant transportation problems of developing countries. This principle has served well to give purpose and focus to the work undertaken in the past and continuing today. In planning future research every effort must be made to anticipate key problems of the future. Among the,key issues for the 1980s one can foresee today are: 1. Maintenance of the large highway networks that have been built up; 2. Financial situation of the railways and the fiscal burden of deficits; 3. Energy problems: cost trends, security of supply, pollution, etc.; 4. Relationship between major transport policies and infra- structural development, on the one hand, and spatial allocation of population and economic activity on the other; 5. Support for international trade expansion: ports and shipping; 6. Designing rural projects for optimal social and economic impact; 7. Organizational, administrative and operating efficiency of transport agencies; 8. Development of efficient domestic construction capacity. 4.14 Within these general perspectives the Panel has given serious attention to the priorities and prospective resource claims of specific research topics over the next five years. The results of these deliberations are summarized in Table 2 in terms of man-months of Bank staff and external manpower. It is, of course, difficult to predict five years into the future with precision, and it is essential that the Bank should maintain flexibility and be prepared to revise priorities in light of possible future developments. Nonetheless the long history of transportation research and its close rela- tion to Bank operations makes it possible to plan ahead with a rather larger element of confidence than may be the case in other sectors. -29- Table 2 Table 2: PROPOSED TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PROGRAM, FY 79-83 Page 1 of 2 (Man Months: Staff-External-Total) Total FY 79 FY 80 FY 81 FY 82 FY 83 FY 79-83 CONTINLA:ICN ON-GOING RESEARCH 1. Highway Design & Maintenance Standards 1.1 HDM Model Modifications 1- 8- 9 4- 2- 6 4- 2- 6 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 11- 12- 23 1.2 HDM User's Manual 1- 2- 3 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 4- 2- 6 1.3 HM Applications 3- 0- 3 4- 0- 4 5- 0- 5 3- 0- 3 2- 0- 2 17- 0- 17 1.4 HM Seminars & Training 1- 0- 1 2- 0- 2 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 6- 0- 6 1.5 Brazil HDS Supervision 2- 0- 2 4- 1- 5 1- 1- 2 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 9- 2- 11 1,6 india HDS SuDervision 3- 1- 4 3- 0- 3 3- 1- 4 2- 1- 3 2- 1- 3 13- 4- 17 1.7 Sinplified VOC models/applications 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 1- 0- 1 4- 0- 4 1.8 Revised "Quantific'n Rd. User Savings" 1- 4- 5 1- 4- 5 1- 4- 5 3- 12- 15 1.9 Book: Highway Design/Mtce. Economics 4- 1- 5 7- 1- 8 8- 2- 10 1.10 Highway Mtce: Problems & Policies 6- 3- 9 6- 3- 9 18-14-32 20- 7-27 17- 8-25 15- 6-21 14- 2-16 84- 37-121 I. Substitution of Labor in Construction 2.1 Handbook 4-12-16 2- 1- 3 6- 13- 19 2.2 Projects: Identification & Preappraisal 2- 3- 5 4- 2- 6 4- 2- 6 4- 1- 5 3- 1- 4 17- 9- 26 2.3 Projects: Design & Implementation 2-10-12 3-12-15 4-12-16 3-11-14 2- 6- 8 14- 51- 65 2.L Evaluation of Demonstration Projects _ . 2- 2- 4 4- 4- 8 3- 6- 9 9- 12- 21 8-25-33 9-15-24 10-16-26 11-16-27 8-13-21 46- 85-131 III. Ports and Shipping 3.1 Pert Pricing: Case Studies 2- 3- 5 3- 6- 9 2- 3- 5 7- 12- 19 3.2 Port Pricing: Operational Report _ 1- 0- 1 4- 0- 4 2- 0- 2 7- 0- 7 2- 3- 5 3- 6- 9 3- 3- 6 4- 0- 4 2- 0- 2 14- 12- 26 IV. Railways - 4.1 Economic Role of Railways I 7- 0- 7 7- 0- 7 4.2 Economic Role of Railways II 5-15-20 6-15-21 8- 4-12 2- 0- 2 21- 34- 55 4.3 Railway Model Development 2-10-12 2- 4- 6 2- 1- 3 6- 15- 21 4.4 Railway Model Applications 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 6- 0- 6 4.5 Railway Training Issues 1- 5- 6 1- 5- 6 9-10-19 3-24-32 10-16-26 10- 4-14 4- 0- 4 41- 54- 95 V. Rural Roads 5.1 Appraisal Methodology Ext'ns & Applic'ns 1- 0- 1 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 3- 0- 3 10- 0- 10 5.2 Brazil Feeder Road Studies 1- 0- 1 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 7- .0- 7 5.3 Institutional Aspects Feeder Roads 10- 0-10 4- 0- 4 14- 0- 14 5.4 Rural Transport Services 3- 0- 3 4- 4- 8 7- 4- 11 5.5 Rural Roads Handbook _6- 0- 6 6- 0- 6 14- 0- 14 11- 4-15 10- 0-10 4- 0- 4 5- 0- 5 44- 4- 48 -30- Table 2 Table 2 (contd..) PROPOSED TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PROGRAM, FY 79-83 Page 20o' (Man Months: Staff-External-Total) Total FY 79 FY 80 FY 81 FY 82 FY 83 FY 79-83 NEW PROJECTS 1. Highways 1.11 Highway Safety Problem 2- 2- 4 3- 3- 6 5- 5- 1- 1.12 Road User Charges 5- 2- 7 6- 5-11 2- 0- 2 13- 7- 2r 1.13 Bus/Trucking Regulation/Organization 3- 2- 5 8- 6-14 2- 0- 2 13- 8- 2: 1.14 Misc. Tech. Guidelines 1- 3- 4 1- 3- 4 2- 4- 6 4- 10- 7- 4-11 9- 8-17 6- 5-11 9- 9-18 4- 4- 8 35- 30- 65 II. Construction Industry 2.5 Study Selected Countries 1- 1- 2 3- 4- 7 4-11-15 4- 0- 4 12- 16- 2E 2.6 Review Paper: Constrn. Ind. Dev. 7- 6-13 2- 0- 2 9- 6- 13 1- 1- 2 10-10-20 6-11-17 4- 0- 4 21- 22- III. Ports and Shipping 3.3 Ocean Shipping Potential 8- 2-10 6- 5-11 14- 7- 21 3.4 Port Management Prcoblem 1- 0- 1 6- 6-12 3- 0- 3 2- 0- 2 12- 6- 18 3.5 Ports & Regional Development 1- 0- 1 8- 6-14 3- 0- 3 12- 6- 18 3.6 Coastal Shipping Potential 2- 0- 2 8- 8-16 10- 8- iE 8- 2-10 7- 5-12 7- 6-13 13- 6-19 13- 8-21 48- 27- 75 IV. Railways 4.6 Comparative Costs Rail/Other Modes 1- 0- 1 4- 6-10 5- 6- 11 4.7 Practice in Service Reductions/Closures 6- 6-12 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 10- 6- 16 4.8 Electrification vs. Dieselization 3- 4- 7 3- 4- 7 4.9 Equipment Maintenance/Utilization 6- 5-11 6- 5- 11 4.10 Railway Information Systems 5- 4- 9 5- 4- 9 4.11 Misc. Technical Topics 1- 1- 2 1- 1- 2 1- 2- 3 1- 2- 3 1- 2- 3 5- 8- 13 1- 1- 2 2- 1- 3 11-14-25 6- 6-12 14-11-25 34- 33- 67 V. Rural Transport 5.6 YAR Feeder Roads: Phase II 2-26-28 2-10-12 4- 36- 40 5.7 Ethiopia Feeder Roads: Phase II 2-14-16 2-12-14 4- 26- 30 5.8 Rural Transport Needs 2- 6- 8 2- 8-10 2- 5- 7 6- 19- 25 5.9 Domestic Regional Aviation 5- 3- 8 4- 1- 5 2- 0- 2 11- 4- 15 7- 9-16 10-49-59 8-27-35 25- 85-110 VI. Multi-modal and Other 6.2 Process of Dereeulation 2- 0- 2 R- A-14 5- &_ 9 1c- in- ?c 6.3 Spatial Implications of Transport Projects 1- 0- 1 3- 0- 3 9-10-19 13- 10- 23 6.4 Social Transfers by Transport Pricing 2- 0- 2 2-10-12 4- 10- 1- 6.5 Freight Transport Chain 5- 5-10 5- 5- 10 6.6 Risk Analysis Updating 2- 0- 2 2- 0- 2 - 31 - expanded. More attention will also be given to preparation of expert 'state-of-the-art' surveys in many areas to ensure that results of the much larger volume of research being done outside the Bank is made available to Bank staff and borrowers alike. 4.16 The first claim on resources is for the dissemination and imple- mentation of the results of the very large studies on highway design and maintenance standards and civil construction technology, now largely com- pleted. Without substantial efforts to assist Bank staff and borrowers alike it is clear that the fundamental findings and new tools of analysis developed by these major studies would be implemented only very slowly, if at all, and the rapidly growing number of requests for assistance in this respect should not be ignored. Of similar importance is the recently initiated study on the economic role of railways, a traditionally important but much troubled sector of Bank lending; research is urgently needed to help formulate future Bank railway lending policies. 4.17 Largely because of the very high priority we attach to the numerous relatively small research jobs listed plus dissemination work, and hence to provision of the necessary staff for this, we would recommend a very selective approach to new, more innovative and ambitious undertakings of the scale of the earlier Highway Design and Labor Capital Substitution studies. Phase II of the study of the Economic Role of Railways may well be a fairly large undertaking in its own right. Hence new initiatives should probably be limited only to areas of very high potential pay-off and broad relevance.. There are several topics which would seem likely to fall in that category -- such as Processes of Deregulation and Spatial Development As,ec:s of Transport Infrastructure Development -- and others which may well do so after preliminary work has been done on them. 4.18 Clearly, however, there is a very high priority claim for new large-scale, long-term research in studying the socio-economic impacts of feeder roads and other rural development measures. The pioneering work done in the feeder road impact studies in Ethiopia, Yemen Arab Republic and particularly Madagascar have clearly demonstrated that the subject, although complex, rewards research provided that proper care is taken to assemble a sound primary data base for before as well as after conditions along with concomitant controls. Eloquent testimony was heard from the Projects Department Directors that they considered the existing basis for predicting the impact of rural development projects to be inadequate and in need of strengthening for planning of new projects. We note too that our companion panel for that sector, RAPARD, has also emphasized the importance of a --l-f-4- -F tho Rqnk's Pxnerience in this relatively new but - 32 - data collection effort which would largely be executed by local institutions. In Table 2 above we have made allowance for 1 to 2 man-years of transport/ regional development specialist assistance as a contribution to a much broader effort which would perhaps most logically fall under the leadershkp of the Agriculture and Rural Development Department within the Bank, but would also include major efforts by local institutions. We see no shortcuts or easier avenues if we are to gain truly better insights into the process of rural change and the impact of Bank rural development investments on human welfare. 4.19 The recommended program of transport research implies an increase over three years of three Bank staff (from the current approximate seven man- years per year) plus one or two additional transport staff in support of the proposed broader study on socio-economic impacts of rural development projects. The Panel notes that this increase does not permit undertaking all of the recommended topics discussed in Chapter III within the 5-year horizon considered. If even this modest increase should be reduced, then it would be necessary to delay corresponding portions of the new research projects (shown on page 2 of Table 2), as paramount priority must be attached to completion of the major ongoing projects and dissemination of their findings. Our extensive discussions with Bank operational staff in many departments underscore the pointlessness of undertaking research without follow-up effort to ensure utilization of research findings. - 33 - APPENDIX I I. Transport Research Review Panel Members - 34 - APPENDIX I World Bank Transport Research Review Panel Chairman: Jorge Cauas (Chile): Mr. Cauas was born in 1934 and educated at the University of Chile as a Civil Engineer and subsequently at Columbia University as an Economist. He has recently returned to Chile where he is currently in private business and part-time in academia. Prior to his recent return he was the Chilean Ambassador to the United States. He has also held posts with the Chilean Government as the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank and previously as Director of the Economic Institute at the Catholic University of Chile. From 1972 to 1974 he was employed at the World Bank as the Director of the Development Research Center. He was formerly on the board of the Econometric Society. Dag Bji6rnland (Norway): Currently Director of the Institute of Transport flunoics (Oslo), Mr. Bj"rnland was born in 1935 and trained in mathematical economics at Oslo University. Previous to joining the Institute he was engaged in national economic planning and budgetting in the Central Bureau of Statistics. He has been with the Institute of Transport Economics since 1965 specializing in long range transportation and regional planning, modelling, pricing and benefit-cost analysis, and most recently in the development of research policy and implementation. He was appointed Director of the Institute in 1977. Ing. Rodolfo Felix Valdez (Mexico): Currently Sub-Secretary of the Ministry of Human Settlements and Public Works, Mr. Felix was trained as a civil engineer. He has previously served as Chief of Planning for Public Works with an overview on the entire transport sector including all modes. Among many other responsibi- lities, Mr. Felix oversees the largest labor-intensive rural roads program in the world. Goon Kok Loon (Singapore): Currently Secretary of Administration of the Port of Singapore Authority; Mr. Goon has also worked for a number of years in the field of port operations. He originally trained as an electrical engineer in the port for 5 years. Subsequently, he proceeded to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for training in transportation systems analysis with the Department of Ocean Engineering. S. Jagannathan (India): Now retired from the Indian Civil Service and Chairman/ Director of some public and private sector companies, Mr. Jagannathan previously - 35 - APPENDIX II II. Project-by-Project Review - 36 - APPENDIX II Page 1 PROJECT BY PROJECT REVIEW A. Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Timing and Budgetting 1. The work was initiated in 1969 and has now been running for nearly ten years. A computer program and user's manual will be published in the near future to guide the choice of investment and maintenance policies. Over the years, modelling and data collection have been going on steadily, finally coalescing into the Highway Desig. and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM). The model is at present restricted to freely flowing traffic conditions. 2. Bank expenditure so far is approximately $650,000 and input from staff-members some 10 man-years; much larger sums have been provided in complementary efforts by the Government of Kenya, India and especially Brazil. Compared to investment in highways, the amount is trifling. The need for this research has been evident and it appears justified that approximately 1/3 of all transport research expenditures by Bank and collaborating institutions has been channelled into this field. One point may, however, be made. When the discount rate is high, it pays to concentrate the construction period. The same applies to research, which should not be too time-consuming; perhaps it would have been preferable to put in earlier a larger staff effort than the average of only slightly more than one staff man-year per year of work. Moreover, the longer the modelling period, the more tempting it will be for the model builder to add new insight and refinement onto the existing frame- work before turning it into an operational tool. 3. It may be noted that the Bank took on research in highway design and maintenance rather late. The need to do such work surely must have arisen some ten years earlier, when highway lending dominated Bank project work. The lesson to be learned is for the Bank to be ahead of the problems in its research efforts. Professional Accomplishment 4. The Bank and its collaborating partners have done an excellent piece of applied research. The relevant economic theory has been known for many years, but the Bank has managed considerably to bridge the gap between what theory says and what reality can supply in the form of operational eouations. variables and parameters. An impressive amount of literature - 37 - APPENDIX II Page 2 6. On a-priori grounds, the researcher may want to include a long list of variables in both the road deterioration and the user costs relati-n- ships. As often happens in social science the researcher for several reasons is not able to isolate all that many factors of influence. The weight of non-recorded factors will then in practice be borne by those which have been significantly identified. Whether factor mix and parametric values vary over time and between countries remains to be seen. Proper identification is also a question of money. It may simply cost too much to know more of additional factor influence. Since research is going on in Brazil and India, more insight may, however, still be gained. 7. The relationships used at present, both on road deterioration, speed performance and user costs already contain an impressive amount of information. HDM may be looked upon as a tool for analyzing total road transport costs, i.e., construction plus maintenance plus road user costs as a function of the road design and maintenance standards. For this end it is an efficient tool, especially when many road segments and policies are considered together. 8. Using the model, the Bank has discovered that it pays high dividends to increase road standards from very low levels to somewhat higher levels. From then on, increased benefits tend to be offset by increased maintenance and construction costs. Another way of formulating this experience is to say that the range of optimal solutions is rather wide and the decision criterion less useful once a certain level of road standard has been attained. This experience is not restricted to developing countries alone; it applies, for example, to Europe as well. Its policy implications are profound. 9. To sum up, at least three very useful applications of HDM are evident. HDM can help both to identify substandards that need to be improved and costly "demonstration" projects, that do not merit realization. It also sheds more light on the importance of proper maintenance as contrasted with construction costs. 10. In applying the model, the user must specify values for a great number of exogenous variables. The less is known of these magnitudes, the less it pays to invest in costly model building. The tentative conclusion may be set forward that, when the Brazilian and Indian experience is incor- porated into HDM, it is at least debatable whether it will pay to continue building up the model. Simplification may then be needed. - 38 - APPENDIX II Page 3 Ease of Understanding and Use 12. The basic relationships treated in the model have different degrees of comple::ty. Some are easy, others are extremely hard to understand. As a compuCer :rogran, HDM requires (as the Ba-ik says itself) several manweeks of effort to learn. Clearly, the Bank should embark upon a program of reaching -rofessional people in the developing countries how to use the model ad su pply computer programs free of charge. However, a comprehensive model like HD ;:ll never be easy to understand or to use for anybody. Relevance to Bank Lending Operations 3. -The model is relevant to the Bank lending operations. But there is the task getting the model integrated into appraisal work. This is by no means ea-sy but should be pursued vigorously. The most convincing way is to shov that the model can come up with interesting results at less cost than other means, as was done in Chad and Bolivia. B. Substitution of Labor and Equi.ment in Civil Construction General 14. The objective of this research study was to establish the technical and ecocamic feasibility of alternative technologies by considering different combinations of labor and equipment, and to determine optimal techniques for given physical and economic environments. 15. There is no question about the importance of this topic since a high percentage of Bank member countries have abundant labor resources and scarce capital resources that should be used optimally. The desirable strategy would be to determine the range of works for which labor-intensive methods would be a productive and appropriate technology, so that capital resources could be concentrated in those activities where labor would be less productive. The use of labor-intensive methods for suitable projects would also strengthen community involvement, reduce unemployment, promote a more ecuitable distribution of income and contribute to savings of foreign exchance. 16. The research undertaken has been extensive. Productivity data were collected on a wide range of alternative techniques. In all, more than 1--p been made since 1971 through various phases ' "-- t-f have - 39 - APPENDIX II Page 4 17. While the study evolved through the several phases -- and moved beyond the negative conclusions reached at one point as a result of excessively optimistic assumptions about the efficiency of equipment operations that can be achieved in practice -- the final conclusions may be too cautious regarding the viability of labor-intensive construction techniques. In a large variety of the analyzed cases, labor was not found to be competitive with equipment, in spite of sometimes substantial increases of labor productivity gained by means of improving managerial, organizational and training aspects or by providing workers with more appropriate tools. The engineering-economic analysis was quite correct as far as it went, but it may have been too narrow and too much influenced by traditional engineering skepticism about the effectivenesss of labor-intensive techniques. To address these concerns, the studies were heavily focused on trying to establish, with the greatest precision, what techniques have the lowest cost under given circumstances, and how these costs could be further reduced by better organization, better tools, better training or various equipment modifications, etc. But further consideration might be given to key macro-economic aspects that should certainly influence the decision as to whether or not to use labor-intensive techniques. Among others, income-distribution patterns, unemployment and migration problems, community organization and capacities for doing other similar work, as well as balance of payments considerations would be important. Also, the sheer volume of works that can actually be carried out in developing countries, given the shortage of equipment from which they typically suffer, might be significantly enlarged. Fuller allowance for these aspects, while admittedly difficult to evaluate, would almost certainly have resulted in more strongly positive conclusions regarding the desirability of using labor-intensive techniques in many circumstances. Consulting Firms and Institutions 18. Referring to performance of consulting firms and other institutions involved in the study, we believe this to have been satisfactory. A large role was played by the consultants in field collection of primary data; this was necessarily so since the Bank is not well situated to do this type of work itself. But we note that many of the main reports were prepared by the Bank staff themselves; perhaps more of the work could have been left to the consultants. We note also that the consultants came largely only from developed countries. The possibility of involving indigenous consulting firms and institutions more heavily should also be examined, because it would enable the Bank to take advantage of the local knowledge of specific problems. - 40 - APPENDIX II Page 5 such as expressways. Several Bank-assisted projects -- in Kenya, Lesotho, Chad, Benin and Honduras -- have already directly benefitted from the research, and more are underway. But we would expect to see wider applicability. Dissemination 20. As to dissemination, the plan to elaborate handbooks reflecting the findings of the study and suggesting practical implementation procedures is excellent. Hopefully, such handbooks will be as operational as a good manual should be. Dissemination again could be achieved more effectively if local institutions with technical experience previously achieved were involved in the execution of the study; they would find out, in the process, how to manage a given problem and recognize the main obstacles. The opinion was voiced by the Board of Executive Directors that the "bottleneck" of dissemi- nation is, in fact, the capacity of potential users to absorb research output. If local institutions were involved in the execution of the study, they would in the process learn how to manage a given problem and recognize the main obstacles (administrative, organizational, etc.) that may exist in each case. In other words, the potential users, being in contact with the situation that is being studied would gain experience and become more capable to understand and make use of the research output. 21. In addition, there are other measures to improve dissemination. It would seem that the current dissemination procedure involves the sending of publications either to the financial agency or to the budgetting or programming institution of a given country. Unfortunately, there are some countries where these publications get lost inside these bureaucracies instead of being passed on to interested agencies. A reasonable policy for the Bank that would eliminate this problem would be to send the materials directly to the operating agencies involved, thus ensuring that research results would reach potential users in a timely fashion and that they would be used effectively. Appropriate Technology 22. Finally, we would like to comment on the main objective of a road investment. A road is designed for communication and, obviously, for trans- portation purposes. However, communities have different road requirements depending on the different traffic volumes that are to be served. The latter, together with the physical factors, determine the design and construction standards to be applied for any given road. What we are proposing here is ' - -- - a f Inhnr for eauioment should consider - 41 - APPENDIX II Page 6 23. We would also want to define what we understand by "intermediate technology". Intermediate technology is a solution between labor-intensive and equipment-intensive extremes. It consists of small-scale adapted power machinery utilized to enhance the productivity of unskilled labor. We would like to emphasize that, while improvements in organization and construction procedures are a necessary condition to increase labor's competitiveness, they are not a sufficient one: given suitable design standards as well as adequate materials, intermediate equipment may also be required. C. Ports General 24. The Bank has been involved in the modernization and expansion program of existing ports and the development of new ports for a considerable time. Yet it appears that only comparatively recently has some systematic work been done to research port operations and investigate the factors that contribute towards better management systems in order to provide suitable bases for obtaining inputs to support the Bank's lending operations. It seems that the ports research "program" topics have been selected in terms of the particular specialization of the Bank staff involved (as for example in the case of development of the Port Simulation Model), and the time available to supervise projects. However, it is understood that competing priorities exist and financial constraints dictate how much can be allocated to research on ports. 25. So far, two major topics have been researched. These are: (i) development of simulation model for port operations (PORTSIM). (ii) port pricing and investment policies for developing countries. As "research", the two seem to be at opposite ends of a scale: the Port Simulation Model makes use of existing literature and a well-developed methodology and provides a practical tool to assist Bank staff, borrowers and consultants in the assessment of port projects. The new Port Pricing work by contrast is a primary exposition of theory which has yet to be applied to any port operating system. Its usefulness as a formal tool for the planning and evaluation of port investments remains to be determined. The Port Simulation Model - 42 - APPENDIX II Page 7 27. It is to be noted that PORTSIM is freely cffered for use by member country institutions. So far, PORTSIM has 'een usec by some UN Agencies and some port authorities in the so-called "middle-income" level countries. But in the majority of developing countries, even with the relative decreases in computer hardware prices, it must be queried whether the ports have the com- petent staff and adequate resources available to carry out the simulations. UCTAD has chosen, with World Bank assistanze, to develop a Port Planning Hanbdook from PORTSIM in which simulations 'or changing port parameters are presented in abacus form. This obviates tha need for computer facilities but due to the simplifying assumptions made in the Fandbook, it may not be applicable to all cases. 28. What has also to be considered is the question of the impact of PORTSIM on the Bank's analysis of port operations. Has the availability of PORTSIM speeded up project appraisals? Has it enabled the Bank to advise borrowing countries on the "correct" scale o f port improvements needed to increase their cargo handling capacities? Or, when PORTSIM was previously unavailable, did the Bank's port projects rsult in substantial over/under capacity? The answer seems to be that suftcient other methods of analysis are available to consider the significant factors contributing to port project preparation and appraisals. What PORTSIM has allowed is a more accurate quantification of project benefits in diffi.ult cases and a higher level of project analysis than previously attainable. To a small degree, therefore, PORTSIM has accelerated and improved the irject preparation and appraisal processes and, on balance, development of PORTSIM hLs been clearly worthwhile. Port Pricing 29. The second research topic, on oor: pricing and investment policies for developing countries, has generated some considerable excitement within the Bank. The project originated from a pro.posal to research the economics of containerization and its implications for port investments. This is significant in that it indicates the directLon in which the Bank's research into port operations may be leading. There has been growing realization within the Bank that in evaluating the distribution of benefits due to port improvements, the effect on port revenues appeared to be small. It was difficult to identify clearly whether the major beneficiaries were the coun- tries' importers, exporters, or the shippin, lines using the port. It is hoped that the port pricing study will assist the Bank to develop standards -"-c andj inorove its ability to measure the - 43 - APPENDIX II Page 8 port accounting systems, many of which have been subject to Bank-proposed con- sultant review. A first tentative effort at application of the proposed approach to pricing was done in Karachi. These efforts should be supported so that eventually a manual based on actual data can be produced for easy reference. 31. There is still a long way to go, however, before any practical implementation can be conceived. Most, if not all, ports in developing countries are public bodies, under the control of a single entity within a government ministry. Their accounting systems tend to be the result of historical developments and they are usually geared to the government machinery rather than to management goals. It may therefore be necessary for there to be a transition period during which port authorities would maintain parallel sets of books. 32. One important result of the marginal cost pricing study is the re- commendation for periodic adjustments to port tariffs, depending upon the levels of congestion experienced at the ports. Such congestion levels may fluctuate seasonally within a short period of one year or may keep on in- creasing with time. The recommendation for frequent adjustments in tariff levels will be difficult to accept by both the port's administration and port users alike. It has only been recently with rising inflation, that ports have adjusted their tariffs as "quickly" as once in 2-3 years. Previously, tariffs were left alone for many years without change. Even with biennial or triennial adjustments, port users voiced protests and raised spectres of increasing costs. The next step in carrying the port pricing study forward is to convince the ports of increases in efficiency, or other advantages to be gained, by more frequent revision of tariffs as may be necessary in response to congestion. 33. A final point to be noted is that, while the study originally in- cluded the theme of investment policy for developing countries, no detailed treatment or discussion of this subject was actually advanced. The study is confined to an exposition of the principles of marginal cost pricing, a com- pilation of some existing port tariffs, and some arguments on how these tariffs fit the theory of marginal cost pricing. There is need to expand the present study to research appropriate strategies for ports to maximize the net present value of their incomes by coupling pricing policy with the timing of ,iprisions to expand port capacity. - 44- APPENDIX II Page 9 be accessible to developing countries as well. In order to ensure effective dissemination of the research results to policy makers in ports of developing countries, more attention has to be paid to developing the management and technical skills of ports personnel. Bank lending to ports does now include appropriations for labor, maintenance, tradesmen and middle management train- ing. But these appropriations and efforts need to be increased if invest- ments in port facilities are to result in improved systems of management and operations. 35. Management of ports has become increasingly system-oriented and port managers must, of necessity, have undergone some formalized training in multidisciplinary subjects. Development of information systems and data bases for short and long term planning are lacking. In fact, the need for such formalized training has only recently been realized within the developed countries themselves. For developing countries, the training of young port management personnel to be conversant in such topics and disciplines and to expose them to appropriate experiences within as short a time span as possible is to ask the ports to make a quantum leap. Yet the urgency and necessity to do so is unquestionable. If developing countries are to catch up and improve the efficiency and management of their ports, and if they are to make effective use of the Bank's research results, the assistance and commitment of the World Bank and other UN agencies are required not only for the provision of basic port facilities, but also for training programs, seminars and institution building in the developing countries. D. Railways 36. In the Transportation Department's own view, the work done so far on the Railways is not very considerable. Excepting the Railway Costing Study, none of the completed items is a Research Committee approved project. Costing Study and the Review of the Action Plans 37. The Costing Study (Report No. 472) must be rated very high. The quality of its professional work and the presentation are excellent. The work addressed an important need, and the report very satisfactorily realizes the objectives for which the work was undertaken. Knowledge of this study is well spread within the Bank and in fact the report is already in wide use. In more than one region, Bank staff have played a valuable (essential) part in dis- seminating its findings and in getting it used by the railway administrations. - 45 APPENDIX 1I Page 10 38. The second work (the Action Plan Review) is a report by consultant specialists (M.N. Bery, former Chairman, Railway Board, India and W.H. Thompson, Director, Operations Planning, Norfolk and Western Railway, U.S.A.). This report focusses on one of the most fundamental aspects of Bank group lending -- to try by institutional, organizational and other means to step up and optimize operating efficiency, so that the borrower may in fact achieve the develop- mental, economic and financial objectives of the investments. The authors in this study (especially in the detailed country case studies) have gone to the roots of the problems encountered and have set out their recommendations as to the direction of future effort with perception and understanding. This is a document which can be of very real use to Bank staff dealing with railway projects. 39. Both these successful studies were made by railway experts with a wealth of experience, working in close collaboration with the Bank's own staff. Further, the consultant who made the first study was himself a former Bank staff member. While not everyone would classify these studies as research, they have been carried out in the correct way by the correct agency. Since propagation is required mainly among the Bank's own transport staff and the railway administrations of member countries, there has been no serious problem in their diffusion. They have been generally well received by the Bank's regional staff. 40. The Financial Analysis System `?AST): PAST was developed with the particular object in mind of facilitating rapid financial analysis of trans- port entities (Railways, Ports, Airports, etc.). FAST has been developed within the Bank itself with the help of an outside consultant, and has been well received by the Bank's regional staff. It is reported to have been used in several projects and monthly accesses within the Bank reportedly exceed 200. It can be used for sensitivity and risk analysis. It is particularly useful in minimizing the time and effort required (in the railway/port administration or in the Bank) for the inevitable reworking of financial statements through the many stages of evaluation of a project. 41. Railway Subsidies in Europe: Three outside studies have been commissioned by the Bank on the experience with railway subsidies covering Britain, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands and France, since such countries are often cited by potential borrowers concerned about their own railway pricing policies. These studies were rightly entrusted to outside consultants and T. 1TiApclv with interest. They have been completed only recently - 46 - APPENDIX II Page 11 There are thus inications more of dangers to be anticipated than of courses to be followed. But these general aspects apart, the applicability of the studies in these particular industrialized countries to tne rather different conditions of developing countries (with their own wage levels and very widely differing geographical sizes and economies) may be somewhat limited. 42. Economic Role of the Railways - (On-going Study, Research Committee approved): A stud-i with this descriotive title would by general acceptance be one of high value. In fact, it appears to be the major research undertaking of the Transportation Department on railways. 43. The relevant Bank document explains that the study on the Economic Role of the Railwa-7s is intended (inter alia) to develop better methods of forecasting railroad traffic demands and analyzing the role of the railways in national transport. The study is to be lone in two phases. Phase I consists of a review or relevant literature and ongoing studies, and an analysis of data availabilit-7. The draft report on Phase I of the study is now available. It contains most interesting data on the trends in intermodal traffic sharing especially between road and rail. Conclusions frDm Phase I will form the basis of subsecuent research, aimed at examining the determinants of rail traffic patterns and testing hypotheses. The draft study so far available is still in a preliminary stage and no new light has been shed as yet on what precisely determines the size of rail traffic (because work on this part of the study is still in process). Some questions to which the further phases of the study may crovide answers are: What is the governing factor in the pace of the continuing rail to road diversion? What is its price elasticity and what are the critical service features which decide whether or not there will be further diversion? (What part is played, in other words, by the con- venience of door to door transport, the reliability (or otherwise) of the pro- mised transit time and/or the saving of time despite higher cost -- where road costs are higher). In countries where road user charges appear substantially less than what they should be, would the levy of correct road user charges have made a significant difference or will it make a significant difference in the future? What part will the newer techniques of containerization and roll-on/roll-off play? 44. In this study there is need to focus no: only on the railways' share over time of particular types of traffic that have traditionally been and have continued with the railways but also on absolute magnitudes and the extent of retention over the years of existing traffic. It would be rewarding to look more closely at the trends subsequent to 1973 when the great increase in oil APPENDIX II Page 12 with that of public/private carriers of freight and passengers, the bus, the private automobile, etc., in different countries. To state the matter rather simply and to give an indication of the orders of magnitude involved, the ratio in the case of freight varies from one to four (say in the U.S.A.) up to even one to five (in a country such as India which does not use the heaviest trucks and does not have the road system for them). What importance should be attached to this and to environmental aspects in examining the Economic Role of the Railways? Can one accept the view expressed by some that the ratio of the relative cost of energy from oil as compared with that in the form of electricity is likely to increase by fifty percent or more within the next ten years? What, if any, is the weight to be attached to any conclusion from this? 46. The above research is rightly being undertaken in the Bank itself but if the need is felt there should be no hesitation in employing consultants, under the supervision of Bank staff, for special studies on specific aspects. 47. The question of the diffusion/dissemination of the results of this research is still in the future. 48. The Railway Model (RAIL): Presently the Transportation Department is developing a general Rail Model which is intended to be a flexible, user- oriented model capable of analysis at different levels of aggregation (depend- ing upon data availability and needs). The purpose is to have a model which can be used in project evaluation by the Bank, recognizing the relation of investments to specific railway services, the operational impact of changes in facilities and equipment (a consideration of alternatives could be made), changes in rail cost structure as a result of the project, etc.; sensitivity analyses could also be performed. This effort should be continued and the model tested and made operational. After such development, the feasibility of making it available to borrowers may also be considered. E. Rural Roads: Socio-Economic Impact Studies 49. This line of research appears to have been conceived as a long range program of its own, although research efforts and expenditures todate have been on a modest scale compared to the Highway Design and Labor Substitution Studies. It addresses fundamental, if sometimes hidden, concerns of a number of borrowing countries. Overall, this research effort is one of the all too rare attempts at an in-depth evaluation of actions taken to improve the - 48 - APPENDIX II Page 13 "transportation view" of road benefits (Road User Surplus) and to take into consideration the surplus generated by the agricultural producers (including on-farm consumption), thus introducing an indirect economic effect that normally would not be attained without some associated agricultural develop- ment program. Next, such non-quantifiable impacts as improvements in the fields of Education and Health Services, or the better integration of a given region into the national community began to take into account. This evolution of the research approach is a very positive one. 51. In addition, this research is clearly of the "integrative" type. This means that, in the mind of the researchers, transport problems and actions cannot be separated from the development of the economic and social activities that are to be served by the movements of goods, people and information. This, as well as the attention paid by the research to institutional problems (land tenure, local government structures, etc.), closely corresponds to reality. 52. Another very valuable feature of this research is the quantity and quality of the socio-economic data collected, treated and presented for each case study. These have been obtained mainly through direct field work, including a large number of interviews. The data collection program and computing programs seem to be valid, consistent, seriously managed and of satisfactory scientific standard: this in spite of non-optimal work condi- tions. The fields covered by the data collection process are quite extensive and sometimes impressive. They include almost every information that could be relevant in order to trace out road impacts. A systems analysis type of approach is used in a very appropriate way that could be further pursued. It is to be appreciated that field work has been conducted in close connection with local authorities and research units and often used local personnel, thus trying to ensure a real inside view of the interviewed population's behavior. 53. Only in one case -- Madagascar -- has it been possible to conduct a before/after analysis (with all the consistency problems between the two data sets). This is the only way to provide a reliable basis for a dynamic analysis. It would be highly desirable that resources be allocated to carry out the "after" surveys also in Yemen and Ethiopia, and in other cases, in order to conduct a continuous evaluation over a period of at least 5 to 7 years. 54. It is worth mentioning that along with the case studies a particular effort of synthesis and formalization has been made in order to ensure dissem- ination of some of the results of the research to-date. This takes the form - 49 - APPENDIX II Page 14 55. The research under review repeatedly stresses the potential use of the methods of economic anthropology, i.e., it indicates that cultural, his- torical and behavioral factors should be integrated in the project analysis and that anthropology could contribute to a better and deeper understanding of the meaning and importance of these factors, especially in traditional societies. Applying these methods, more insight could be gained in the field of mobility practices of different populations. They also provide useful warning signals against ar-, tendency to use exclusively ways of think- ing and reasoning which are largely based on value systems of the developed countries. This avenue should be further explored, possibly in connection with the U.N. Data on Primitive Societies. 56. In spite of its fundamental qualities of relevance and effectiveness, there are potential biases in this type of research. Most of them are pointed out in the reports and are rather unavoidable in the environments in which the studies were carried out: (a) There is still a tendency to relate a number of expected and/or observed socio-economic changes to the impact of the road project as such. In spite of the typology attempted in the User's Manual introductory chapter, it seems doubtful whether it is possible to isolate from each other the effects of the road and the effects of other "activities" (in that case, an agriculture development program); (b) Possible negative effects of the road, in terms of distribution of benefits between groups or between regions or more broadly, are not clearly taken into account (e.g., pack animal operators going out of business); (c) An explicit consideration of the necessary time-lags before desired effects to begin to emerge seems missing: one would wish to see some work on this subject, which will become important in the follow-up phases; (d) Although great attention is paid to qualitative factors, an important part of the research is devoted to the computation of money-expressed effects mainly related to the extension of the monetary exchange economy. However, an unusual amount of work has been devoted to analyze (and translate into money equivalents) the implications of the subsistence economy. - 50 - APPENDIX II Page 15 (e) In certain instances, reliance on interview surveys might introduce bias and result in questionable validity of findings even if these are expressed in seemingly convincing numbers. Against this, it must be acknowledged that in many instances interview surveys are the only feasible means of establishing relevant information. All means of cross-controlling interview data by objective measures should be sought. 57. A recent Bank paper on social and behavioral aspects of rural road work is an interesting introductory summary of some of the ways in which econo- mic anthropology or the social sciences can contribute in the formulation and preparation of rural road projects. But we are concerned that not enough collection of social data may be underway in connection with ongoing Bank projects: proposals were made by the Transportation Department for a project in Kenya, but this has not got underway due to difficulties within Kenya; some elements of the approach are being applied by the Brazilians in a major re- search of their own, but this seems to be a unique case. We also feel that the time-budget approach might prove helpful for analyzing many of the social factors. - 51 - APPENDIX III III. Bibliography: Recent World Bank Transport Research Reports - 52 - APPENDIX III Page 1 BIBLIOGRAPHY RECENT WORLD BANK TRANSPORT RESEARCH REPORTS Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Fred Moavenzadeh, et al. "Highway Design Standards Study: Phase I: The Model," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 96 (January 1971). H. Hide, et al. The Kenya Road Transport Cost Study: Research on Vehicle Operating Costs. TRRL Laboratory Report 672 (July 1975). J.W. Hodges, et al. The Kenya Road Transport Cost Study: Research on Road Deterioration. TRRL Laboratory Report 673 (October 1975). R. Robinson, et al. A Road Transport Investment Model for Developing Countries. TRRL Laboratory Report 674 (October 1975). S.W. Abaynayaka, et al. Tables for Estimating Vehicle Operating Costs on Rural Roads in Developing Countries. TRRL Laboratory Report 723 (1976). H. Hide, "An Improved Data Base for Estimating Vehicle Operating Costs," TRRL Laboratory Supplementary Report 223 UC (1976). P.N. Taborga, et al. "RAM--User's Manual," (September 1976). C.G. Harral, P. Fossberg and T. Watanatada. "Evaluating the Economic Priority of Highway Maintenance - Some Exploratory Analyses," paper presented to the Pan-African Conference on Highway Maintenance (Accra, November 1977). GEIPOT and TRDF, "Research on the Interrelationships Between Costs of Highway Construction, Maintenance and Utilization: Summary Mid-Term Report" (November 1977), and "Quarterly Progress Report No. 8" (April 1978). Central Road Research Institute, "Road User Cost Study in India: Inception Report" (May 1977) and "Preliminary Selection of Routes" (November 1977). A.N. Akonteh, "A Simulated Stochastic Behavioral Model of Traffic Interaction on a Two-Lane Highway," (Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University, September 1977) and "Draft User's Manual: Highway Simulation Model" (August 1977). - 53 - APPENDIX III Page 2 Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction "Study of the Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Road Construction, Phase I, Final Report," IBRD (October 1971) - out of print. "Study of the Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction, Phase II, Final Report," IBRD Staff Working Paper No. 172 (January 1974) - out of print. "Study of the Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction, Phase III: Technical Report No. 1," IBRD (February 1975) - out of print. "Iron Deficiency Anemia and Productivity of Adult Males in Indonesia," IBRD Staff Working Paper No. 175 (April 1974). "Some Aspects of Unskilled Labor Markets for Civil Construction in India: Observations Based on Field Investigations," IBRD Staff Working Paper No. 223 (November 1975). "Scope for the Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction - A Progress Report" and "Some Aspects of the Use of Labor-Intensive Methods for Road Construction," papers for Panel Discussion, Indian Roads Congress, 37th Annual Session, Bhopal (December 1976). "The Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction: A Case Study," in World Bank Research Program, IBRD, Washington (January 1978). Technical Memoranda (January-February 1978): 1. Comparison of Alternative Design Wheelbarrows for Haulage in Civil Construction Tasks January 1975 2. Increasing Output of Manual Excavation by Work Reorganization: An Example of Passing Place Construction on a Mountain Road January 1975 3. Comparison of Different Modes of Haulage in Earthworks January 1975 4. Effect of Health and Nutrition Status of Road Construction Workers in Northern India on Productivity January 1975 - 54 - APPENDIX III Page 3 Substitution of Labor and Equipment - Technical Memoranda (continued) 8. Collection of Productivity Data from Civil Construction Projects July 1975 9. Report of First Road Demonstration Project August 1975 10. A System of Deriving Rental Charges for Construction Equipment August 1975 11. A Literature Review of the Ergonomics of Labor- Intensive Civil Construction August 1975 12. Haulage by Headbaskets, Shoulder Yokes and Other Manual Load Carrying Methods October 1975 13. The Use of Wheelbarrows in Civil Construction October 1975 14. Hardware Research Summary October 1975 15. The Planning and Control of Production, Productivity and Costs in Civil Construction Projects October 1975 16. Level Cranes October 1975 17. Compaction December 1975 18. Spreading Activities in Civil Construction December 1975 19. Excavation February 1976 20. Loading and Unloading Activities February 1976 21. A Literature Review of the Work Output of Animals with Particular Reference to their Use in Civil Construction February 1976 22. Haulage Using Aerial Ropeways June 1976 23. The Use of Rail Systems in Civil Construction June 1976 - 55 - APPENDIX III Page 4 Port Planning and Pricing "PORTSIM--User's Manual" (January 1974). Esra Bennathan and Alan Walters. Port Pricing and Investment Policies for Developing Countries, to be published in 1979 as a World Bank Staff Occasional Paper. Railway Economic and Financial Analysis M. Bery and W.H. Thompson, "Action Plan Review" (Jul3 1977). Frederick Sander, "Railway Traffic Costing," (1974). "FAST--User's Manual" (November 1977). Rural Roads - Economic and Social Analysis C. Carnemark, J.M. Biderman and D.M. Bovet, "The Economic Analysis of Rural Road Projects," Bank Staff Working Paper No. 241 (1976). B. Mitchell and G. Gill, "A Baseline Socio-Economic Survey of the Agaro-Chira Road Influence Area" (April 1978). B. Mitchell, "Summary Report: Taiz-Turba and Wadi Mawr Baseline Socio- Economic Survey Findings" (May 1978). B. Mitchell and Hermann Escher, "A Baseline Socio-Econonic Survey of the Taiz-Turba Road Influence Area" (May 1978). B. Mitchell and Hermann Escher, "A 'During Construction' Survey of the Taiz-Turba Road Influence Area" (May 1978). B. Mitchell, Hermann Escher and Martha Mundy, "A Baseline Socio-Economic Survey of the Wadi Mawr Region" (May 1978). B. Mitchell and X. Rakotonirina, "The Impact of the Andapa-Sambava Road: A Socio-Economic Study of the Andapa Basin, Madagascar" (December 1977). E. Vickery, "The Socio-Economic Impact of Rural Roads in Brazil," draft Terms of Reference and Methodological Appendices, unpublished Bank document (March 1977). - 56- APPENDIX IV 1. Terms of Reference .ORLD BANK / INTERNATKONAL FINANCE CORPORAT!rj - 57 - OFFICE MEMORANDUM PPeDX 1y TO: Hembers of the Transport Research Review Commission July 13, 1978 FROM: J. Cauas, Chairman JBJECT: Future Work of the Commission As per our conversation and the approved terms of reference (see below), the following are the main elements of the future work of the group: 1. Main Issues to be Considered (i) Is the program responsive to member country needs and how could it be more so? (ii) Does the program make best use of the World Bank's "comparative advantage", i.e., as compared with other ways and means of getting transport research for developing countries done and applied? (iii) Is Bank operational work on transport (loans, loan conditions, sector reports and sector policy discussions) suffering from lack of research in some areas? Should the Bank be responding more to its borrowers' needs by either different ways of treating present types of projects or new types of operations - perhaps based on research first? (iv) Is enough being made of research possibilities in connection with transport projects financed - e.g., small built-in research or research based on results of built-in evaluation and monitoring? (v) Is the Bank taking enough advantage of transport research done .outside -- adequacy of links with outside institutions, responsibilities for bringing into Bank relevant results from outside research? (vi) What is the right scale of effort for the Bank to make in transport research? (vii) Has there been a correct balance between staff and outsiders APPENDIX IV - 58 - Page 2 Members of the Transport Research Review Commission July 13, 1978 (viii) Is the Bank's transport research "operational" enough -- in subject matter and also in the way it is executed and dissemi- nated? 'Or should it go beyond research suitable for dissemi- nating through Bank operations (and hence helping to improve them)? (ix) Are there any ways of getting a better dissemination of results -- mostly within the Bank since it is research for Bank operations (and sometimes difficult), but also sometimes direct to member countries, whence it can reflect back to Bank operations? Are Regional Offices doing an adequate job of dissemination? (x) Should higher priority be given (in research and/or operational programs) to working with and assisting research institutions in developing countries, rather than treat that, as now, mainly as a by-product of efforts to reach answers on an important topic? ,ORLD BANK INTE ':ATIONAL FINANCE C^>RPORAT!r1 - 59 - OFFICE MEMORANDUM a 3PExDX TO Dr. Jorge Cauas, Chairman, Transport Research Review July 5, 1978 Panel FROM: Christopher R. Willoughby, Director, TRP UBJCT Terms of Reference 1. The review of the research program of the Bank is intended to assist the Bank management and Executive Directors in evaluating the effective- ness of past efforts and determining the size and nature of the program for the next five or six years. Transportation was one of the earliest areas of Bank involvement in research and it grew into a large scale activity over the years particularly as Bank resources came to be complemented by much larger efforts from various governments and agencies. However, during the past two years, major emphasis has shifted to the implementation of results from previous research rather than new res?arch. Thus, the convening of the Transport Research Review Panel (TRRP) comes at a juncture when important decisions as to the future level and 3irecticri of transport research in the Bank have to be considered. 2. Below, I set out a series of questions on which we hope ultimately to have your advice; in Attachment 1, we have set out a suggested agenda for the meeting of the panel during the first week. The accompanying memorandum from Mr. Harral provides an overview of the transport research program since 1969 and a list 1/ of the most relevant publications and other documents for review by TRRP. As the total volume is rather substantial, it is suggested that Commission Members may wish to d:vide responsibilities as they see fit. 3. For a broader background and perspective on the role of research in the Bank in other sectors as well as transport, the functions of the Research Committee and the continuing evaluation of the basic objectives, effectiveness, and appropriate scale of the Bank's rEsearch effort, you are referred to the compendium of brief documents in Attachment 2 plus the 1978 Annual Report on Research, which is being provided separately. A. Objectives The review of the transport research program should focus on the period 1969 to 1978 zs major research initiated in 1969 APPENDIX IV Page 4 Dr. Jorge Cauas - 60 - July 5, 1978 B. Guidelines for Evaluation The general objectives of the Bank's overall Research Program (all sectors) have been defined as follows: - to support all aspects of Bank operations, including the assessment of development progress in member countries, - to broaden our understanding of the development process, - to improve the Bank's capacity to give policy advice to its members, - to assist in developing indigenous research capacity in member countries. Given these general objectives, an approach to evaluation of the transport research program is illustrated below in the form of questions for discussion at review panel meetings. These questions, taken together, are an attempt to determine how effectively the research program has met its goals and how useful it has been in improving knowledge of development issues involving the Bank. While not intended as exhaustive, questions are grouped into headings which may be useful as a first draft of an organizing format for the report on the Commission's findings. Choice of Topics 1. Are the general problems to which the research has been addressed of relevance for an international development institution? 2. Did the research address an important gap in the under- standing of (i) the role of transportation in economic development, (ii) planning methodology or (iii) factual basis necessary for planning and evaluation of transporta- tion investments? 3. Were the objectives of the research clearly formulated? 4. Was the research perceived to be of relevance by operating staff? 5. Did the research tasks follow a logical sequence? Conduct of Research APPENDIX IV Page 5 Dr. Jorge Cauas - 61 - July 5, 1978 5. What was the nature and extent of awareness, support, or participation among: - Bank operating departments? - Researchers in developing countries (in government agencies or research institutesW? - Decision makers in developing countries? 6. How did the results of the studies correspond to what was originally expected? To what can be ascribed any differences between original and actual objectives? 7. Were efforts made to coordinate work with other studies underway in the Bank or outside, to enhance the compara- bility of results or avoid duplication? 8. Are the research outputs written and presented in a manner which makes them accessible to the intended audience(s)? 9. By what means have findings been communicated to the intended beneficiaries? 10. How do overall costs and efficiencies of the various studies compare with initial estimates? Did they take longer than expected? If so, why? 11. What appreciation, however broad, can be given of cost-effectiveness? Operational Relevance of Results 1. To what extent has the research program yielded results that have been -- or are likely to be -- of value in fostering development? 2. Has the research program had any impact on policies of the Bank, of other development institutions, or of developing countries themselves? 3. Has the program assisted in developing research or other analytical capacity either in the countries under study or in general? Lessons I-Wht n for the conduct of future research projects APPENDIX IV Page 6 Dr. Jorge Cauas - 62 - July 5, 1978 cc: Mr. Dag Bj6rnland Mr. Hollis B. Chenery (VPD) Mr. Rodolfo Felix Valdes Mr. Warren C. Baum (CPSVP) Mr. Goon 1Kok Loon Mr. Bela Balassa (VPD) Mr. S. Jagannathan Mr. C.R. Willoughby (TRP) Mr. Daniel L'Huillier Mr. C.G. Harral (TRP)