Burundi - Forestry Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FILE COPy Report No. 2376-hU BURUNDI FORESTRY PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT May 8, 1979 Eastern Africa Region Central Agriculture Division This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Burundi Francs (FBu) US$1.00 = FBu 90 FBU 1 US$0.011 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System Metric = British/US Equivalents 1 meter (m) 3 3.3 feet 1 cubic meter (m ) = 35.3 cubic feet 1 hectare (ha) = 100 ares = 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km) 2 = 0.62 mile 1 square kilometer (km ) = 0.39 square mile (sq. mi.) 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.20 pounds (lb) 1 liter (1) = 0.26 U.S. gallon (gal) 0.22 Imperial gallon (imp. gal) 1 ton (metric ton) = 2,204 pounds (lb) ABBREVIATIONS AND GLOSSARY CFTF - Centre Forestier Tropical Francais (French Tropical Forest Center) FAC - Fonds d'aide et de cooperation (France) (French Aid and Co- operation Fund) FED - Fonds europeen de developpement (European Development Fund) (or EDF) ISABU - Institut des sciences agronomiques du Burundi (Burundi Institute of Agronomy) MAI - Mean Annual Increment (Volume increment p.a.) OCIBU - Office des Cultures Industrielles du Burundi - Agency for Industrial Crop Development of Burundi ONATOUR - Office National de la Tourbe - National Peat Development Agency SCM or - Stacked Cubic Meter (equivalent to approximately 0.7 cubic Stere meter solid) UNDP - United Nations Development Program FISCAL YEAR Government of Burundi : January 1 - December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BURUNDI APPRAISAL OF THE FORESTRY PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Is BACKGROUND ....................... ....................... 1 A. Project Background .................................. 1 B. The Agricultural Sector .................. ...1........ C. Government Services . ............... 5 II. THE FORESTRY SUB-SECTOR ................................. 7 III. THE PROJECT ....... ...................................... 15 A. General Description ...... ........ ............... 15 B. The Project Areas ................................... 16 C. Detailed Features ......... . . . . . .......... ........................ . 16 D. Project Costs ....... ................................ 19 E. Financing . **. .................. ......*.....*...... 20 F. Procurement ................. o ....................... 21 G. Disbursement . ......... ...... .. * .......... . .* ....... 21 H. Accounts and Audit ....................................... 22 I. Environmental Impact ...... .......................... 22 IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ... .. 23 A. Project Organization and Staffing. 23 B. Project Implementation Schedule . .25 C. Monitoring and Evaluation. . ........... 25 V. TECHNICAL AND PRODUCTION ASPECTS ........................ 26 VI. GOVERNMENT BENEFITS ........ ...................... ..... ....... . 31 VII. MARKETS AND PRICES ...................................... 32 VIII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION .............................. 34 IX. SUMMARY OF AGREEMENTS TO BE REACHED ON LOAN CONDITIONS .. 37 This report is based on the findings of an IDA appraisal mission to Burundi in June-July, 1978, composed of K. Marshall and N. Brouard (IDA). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Supporting Tables and Charts Table 1 Summary of Project Costs Table 2 Estimated Schedule of Disbursement Table 3 Project Implementation Schedule Table 4 Government Project-Related Cash Flow Table 5 Economic Rate of Return Analysis Table 6 Project Financing Plan Chart 1 Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development Chart 2 Proposed Project Organization Chart Material Available in Project File Maps Burundi Forestry Project IBRD 13869  BURUNDI APPRAISAL OF THE FORESTRY PROJECT I. BACKGROUND A. Project Background 1.01 The first formal discussions of a possible forestry project to be financed by the World Bank Group were held in Burundi during 1976. The Project was formally identified in 1977, and was prepared in Burundi during 1978, with assistance from an IDA preparation mission. This report is based on the findings of an IDA appraisal mission which visited Burundi in June- July 1978, composed of K. Marshall and N. R. Brouard (IDA). There were no substantial changes in the Project proposal between preparation and appraisal. 1.02 This would be the fourth IDA Credit to Burundi for an agricultural project. Two coffee development projects have aimed at improving services for coffee production and marketing; implementation has been quite satisfac- tory, and the second project should be completed in late 1980. A third coffee project is currently under preparation. A fisheries development project was approved in 1976; it has faced serious start-up problems, prin- cipally related to management difficulties, but performance has improved in recent months. An integrated development project for central Burundi, aimed at increasing food crop production and improving services to farmers, is also being prepared. B. The Agricultural Sector General 1.03 Burundi is a small, land-locked country, situaWed in Central Africa on the Zaire/Nile divide. Total area is about 27,800 km , and the population of almost four million 2is increasing at about 2% per year. The population density of over 140/km is the highest in continental Africa, after that of Rwanda. Burundi is bounded by Rwanda to the north, Zaire to the west, and Tanzania to the south and east. The nearest major seaports are over 800 km away; exports and imports are normally shipped by boat to Kigoma (Tanzania) on Lake Tanganyika, and thence by rail to Dar-es-Salaam. Bujumbura (population about 175,000 persons) is the only major urban center, and an estimated 95% of the population live in the rural areas; there, popula5ion is quite unevenly diitributed, with densities ranging from over 300 per km to less than 50 per km . Burundi is one of the 25 "least developed nations", with per capita GNP estimated at US$120 in 1976. Real GNP growth has in the past decade barely kept pace with population increase, and the average standard of living in the rural areas has probably declined. Income distribution is quite skewed between the urban and rural areas, and among geographic regions; average per capita GNP in rural areas is estimated at US$45-50.  2 1.04 Burundi is generally a mountainous country; altitudes vary from leas than 800 m at Lake Tanganyika to a little over 2,500 m within a distance of under 50 km. Similarly, average annual rainfall ranges from less than 800 mm in the Rusizi plain (Imbo) in the northwest to over 2,000 mm in the mountains (Mugamba) and drops again to 1,000-1,300 mm towards the north (Rweru), south (Bututsi) and east (Xo8so). Topography, apart from the flat Rusizl plain, consists of hills and more or less steep slopes, with some plateau areas in the center and east. Burundi has four principal geographic regions. (a) the rift valley plain, comprising the Rusizi Valley and the coastal region along Lake Tanganyika; altitude is generally below 1,000 m and rainfall is 750-1000 mm a year; (b) the Zaire/Nile divide, a mountain chain rising sharply from the plain to an average altitude of 2,400 m; (c) the central plateau region, where most of the population is concentrated; altitudes are 1,600-2,100 m, rainfall over 2,000 mm a year; and (d) the savannahs of the north and east, where altitudes are below 1,600 m; this region is drier and less densely populated, in large part because of tsetse fly infestation. Of Burundi's total land area, about 37% is considered arable, and virtually all of this land is under crops; 23% is pasture land, 3% is forest, and 37% is classified as "other" (urban, lakes and rivers, and wasteland). 1.05 Agriculture dominates Burundi's economy and employs about 90% of the total population. It contributed about 58% of GDP in 1977; of this, 8% was from cash crops and 50% from the subsistence sector. The average annual total value of merchandise exports in 1974/76 was US$40 million, of which coffee (the principal cash crop) represented 86%, cotton 4%, skins 3% and tea 2%. The average annual total value of imports for the same period was US$70 million, of which food and beverages accounted for about 13%. Burundi's agricultural economy is almost exclusively comprised of smallholders, using traditional production techniques; there are very few large farms and planta- tions and commercial production is very limited. Average farm size for the estimated 750,000 farm families is about one hectare, and farming techniques are based on hand labor, using the most rudimentary farm equipment - the hoe, mattock and knife. Virtually no transport equipment is used. The landless population is small, and use of hired labor quite rare. Nevertheless, size of land holdings appears to be somewhat skewed; in one province surveyed, 21% of farm families owned less than 1 hectare, 80% less than 1.5 hectares, and 10% more than two hectares. Use of modern techniques is restricted to cash crops, and to date there have been virtually no services or provision of inputs for food crops. Non-agricultural services in rural areas are poor; schools and health centers are inadequate and lack staff and facilities, and although the road network is relatively well developed, the population tends to live in scattered farmsteads and there is no well developed public trans- portation system. Land Tenure 1.06 By law, all land in Burundi belongs to the Government, and any un- occupied and unutilized land can be used by the Government for any purpose. In practice, however, virtually all land (about 98%) is governed by a combina- tion of traditional land law and modern regulations; about 1-2% of all land  - 3 - is formally registered, with modern title deeds. Traditional land rights grant individual usufruct rights to continuously cultivated land, while all pasture land is communally held. Cultivated land can be passed on to heirs and is reportedly sold on occasion within the rural community for cash. When the Government expropriates cultivated land, compensation must be paid; the Government can, however, take over other land, including pasture, without compensation to the local community. Agricultural Production 1.07 Major Crops. Owing to its diverse eco-climatic conditions which result from altitude and rainfall variations, Burundi is well suited for production of a wide range of crops. At lower elevations, cotton, rice, tobacco, sugarcane, groundnuts, oil palm, Robusta coffee, beans and maize are grown, while tea, potatoes, wheat and barley are produced at higher elevations. The distribution of rainfall between two main rainy seasons allows two har- vests a year in most places. About 90% of cultivated land is under food crops, with over 25% of this under bananas (a large part of which is used for beer production). In 1977, beans and manioc occupied about 500,000 ha, with maize and sweet potatoes the other principal crops. Yields of all crops are low. The principal cash crops are coffee, tea, and cotton. About half of all farmers grow coffee, with a total of about 27,000 ha cultivated; produc- tion was estimated at about 21,000 tons in 1976. Production of vegetables, fruits, tobacco, cinchona and honey also represents a source of cash income for farmers. 1.08 Livestock. There are an estimated 760,000 cattle in Burundi and about one million sheep and goats; poultry is also kept in many regions. About 25% of farmers own some livestock. Although livestock plays a vital role in Burundi's traditional economy and social structure, Burundi has yet to define a sound beef or dairy development strategy. Pastures are sererely over-stocked in most regions; the density of cattle is about 15 per km nationwide, but in some areas, there are about 4 animal units per hectare, as opposed to an optimum carrying rate of at most one per hectare. Production techniques with rare exceptions remain strictly traditional, and disease control programs are still relatively limited; grazing control is virtually unknown and supplementary minerals are very rarely given. Most cattle are herded, however, and goats and sheep are normally tethered because pastures are close to cultivated areas. Beyond this, there is virtually no integration between crops and livestock. Repeated burning and overgrazing have led to a rapid deterioration of both the soil and the quality of pastures. The presence of too many old cattle is a further problem. The results are low technical coefficients and low productivity, and the size of the herd is * declining. Milk production is estimated at 55 million liters a year, and meat production at 10,000 tons carcass weight. 1.09 Other agriculturil resources include fisheries and forestry. Burundi has about 2,000 km of territorial waters in Lake Tanganyika and it is from there that most fish production comes. In 1976 this production was estimated at about 20,000 tons; recent research has suggested that potential yields are significantly higher, and fisheries development pro- grams are underway. On Lake Tanganyika, industrial purse seine units, most of them owned by expatriates, account for about 45% of production, and a  -4- large group of artisanal fishermen use simple but improved fishing techniques. Fish is also caught in the rivers of the country and on Lakes Cohoha and Rweru in the north. Maximum production from the northern lakes has been about 1,000 tons for any one year; there is some potential for increasing production there and for development of fish ponds. Forestry is described in Chapter II. Marketing. Processing and Prices 1.10 Only an estimated 10% of total food crop production is marketed through commercial channels. Local markets are entirely in private hands, market facilities are limited, and prices are determined by supply and demand; there tend, therefore, to be significant seasonal fluctuations in price levels. Burundi's relatively small size and the well-developed road system to some extent mitigate marketing difficulties, and farmers seldom have serious difficulties in selling surplus production to traders. Foodcrop marketing is principally restricted by the relatively small demand from towns and cities, by the poorly developed storage system, and by the limited size of surplus production. The most commonly traded food commodity is probably banana beer, which is normally sold for cash within farming communities. In the cities the Government makes an effort to control prices of some goods of primary necessity, but the most effective controls are exercised where imported goods are concerned - notably bread and oil. Marketing networks for cash crops are dominated by the major parastatal institutions (para. 1.14) which are responsible for production (including provision of extension services and inputs), marketing and processing; coffee, tea and cotton are the principal crops concerned. These prices are fixed by the Government. Marketing and prices for livestock products and fish are, like food crops, determined by private market factors except for fish marketed through the parastatal fish- eries development company. Marketing of wood products is discussed below (para. 2.07). Development Problems and Government Plans 1.11 After a decade of economic stagnation and social strife, the major challenge for Burundi is to increase the income levels of its rural popula- tion through increased agricultural production. The problems facing Burundi's agriculture are serious. Although the country has areas with fertile soils and favorable climate, the potential for agricultural development is limited both by institutional and policy constraints and by the pressure on land resources from the growing population. Institutions dealing with agriculture are generally weak, and are very short of trained staff, leading to a heavy reliance on expatriate assistance. Pressure on land is compounded by tradi- tional cultivation methods which require fallow periods and crop rotation since no industrial fertilizers are used. The competition for land has led to overgrazing, overcropping and the exploitation of marginal or unsuitable land. The country's forest resources have been seriously depleted as a result of the ever increasing demand for fuelwood and timber (see para 2.01). The rural population is scattered widely in small settlements; access to markets and provision of agricultural services is therefore relatively difficult consider- ing Burundi's small size and the existence of quite a dense road network. In summary, the problems of rural development for Burundi are complex and the Government faces a difficult task in elaborating an effective strategy for development.  - 5 - 1.12 A new Government strategy to achieve social justice, ethnic recon- ciliation and improved living conditions in the rural areas is presented in the Five Year Development Plan for 1978-82. It proposes the reorganization of Government around a strengthened planning mechanism and includes a series of new economic and social policies: (a) placing emphasis on agricultural production to increase food supplies for the fast-growing population; (b) increasing the rate of economic growth to provide greater employment oppor- tunities and income to the poorest segments of the population; (c) raising the investment rate significantly; (d) giving the Government a more active role in mobilizing financial and manpower resources, including participation in mixed enterprises in the commercial and productive sectors; and (e) fostering decentralization of economic and social activity away from the capital city and balanced growth through the creation of development poles, settlement of the farming population in villages, and migration to less densely populated areas. For agriculture, the emphasis is on increasing productivity in view of land constraints; new land gained for cultivation will be destined primarily for food crop production. Special attention is given to rural development projects and reforestation. Diversification of exports is to be pursued by developing crops other than coffee, (e.g. tea, cotton, sugarcane and cinchona). The modernization of the transport sector is to facilitate input supplies to the rural sector and the evacuation of agricultural production. The creation of cooperatives and regional development corporations will be encouraged to improve extension services and agricultural credit. The volume of investment during the plan period is to be doubled in real terms as compared to that of the previous plan. About 22% of total investment is to be allocated directly to the agricultural sector and an additional 35% to related infrastructure such as rural housing, water supply, electricity, education and roads; the rural areas are thus expected to benefit from about 57% of total investment. At a Round Table Conference in February, 1978, convened to present the new Development Plan and coordinate foreign aid, the Government proposed to organize a working group on agriculture to discuss the sector's major problems and measures to resolve them. The Bank Group is currently supporting this initiative. C. Government Services 1.13 Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development (Chart 1). The ministry is responsible for direction and coordination of all activities in the agricultural sector. The Minister is assisted by two Secretaries of State, one responsible for food and agriculture, and the other for rural development. The Ministry employs about 2,000 persons; of these about 800 are considered as extension staff. The Secretary of State for food and agriculture has two directorates general, for agriculture and for livestock respectively. The Director General of agriculture is respon- sible for four departments: agronomy, rural works and hydro-meteorology, waters and forests, and land tenure and surveys. The organization of the department of Waters and Forests ("Eaux et Forests") is described below  -6- (para. 2.10). The department of Rural Works ("Genie Rural") is currently developing a mechanical service with appropriate equipment for soil prepara- tion and road works. Agricultural services are regionalized at the provincial level, separately for each department, and staff of most departments are also posted to the arrondissement level (para. 1.18). The ministry also oversees all agricultural research and training activities. 1.14 Parastatal Institutions. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development oversees the activities of five principal parastatal agencies. Three of these are crop specific, dealing with the three main export crops, coffee, tea, and cotton. OCIBU (Office des Cultures Industrielles du Burundi) which is responsible for coffee, is the largest and most important. In addition, there are regional development authorities for the Imbo region and for fisheries development. 1.15 Research. The Institut des Sciences Agronomiques du Burundi (ISABU), a semi-autonomous agency under the Ministry of Agriculture, is responsible for all agricultural research. ISABU is heavily dependent on expatriate assis- tance, and all of its professional staff are foreigners. ISABU's previous work has focused on the key cash crops (coffee, cotton, tea); it has been conducted through a network of experimental stations in the key agricultural sub-regions. Research on forestry has been relatively limited in the past, although basic work on a number of species provides useful information in support of proposed forestry developments. There is pressing need for addi- tional agricultural research particularly on food crop production. In addi- tion, research is required in such areas as Burundi's energy use and needs and applied trials of more efficient charcoal production techniques. Lack of manpower and equipment has been a severe constraint on all research activities in the past. 1.16 Training. There are three agricultural training institutions in Burundi, and the university has a small, very new agriculture department. The Institut Technique Agricole du Burundi (ITAB) offers a four-year course for agronomists (secondary level) at Gitega and between 10 and 15 students com- pleted the course over each of the last 3 years; this outturn is expected to increase to 30 graduates in 1978/79. The Ecole Professionnelle Agricole (post primary) at Karuzi trains field assistants ("moniteurs"), and the two- year course has an average outturn of 25 students per year. A one-year train- ing course for field assistants is provided at Rutegama Vocational School. Virtually the total outturn from these three institutions is employed by the Ministry of Agriculture, but it is not sufficient to meet the country's need for manpower trained in agriculture. Further, the training offered is not fully adapted to Burundi's needs, as courses tend to be quite theoretical with little practical application. Training offered in certain specific areas, notably forestry, is minimal. 1.17 Agricultural Credit. The Savings and Credit system of Burundi consists of the Central Bank (Banque de la Republique du Burundi), three commercial banks (Banque de Credit de Bujumbura, Banque Commerciale du  Burundi, and Banque Belgo-Africaine), all largely foreign-owned, the develop- ment bank (Banque Nationale pour le Developpement Economique - BNDE), the Government-owned Savings Association, the Postal Checking System and the Social Security Fund. Agricultural credit is not well developed. The commercial banks finance coffee exports and seasonal working capital needs of traders in agricultural commodities, but do not extend credit to farmers. Institutional credit is virtually non-existent in the rural areas; the only exception is limited funds to smallholders which have been lent by paras- tatal organizations, mainly with the assistance of aid programs. Informal credit is also scarce in rural areas. BNDE is the only source of medium and long term agricultural credit in Burundi. Only about 1% of its outstanding loan portfolio is for direct agricultural production activities. BNDE was established in 1967; the Government owns 45% of the equity capital, bilateral aid agencies, 33%, and private investors, 22%. The Burundi Government plans to engage consultants to analyze agricultural credit needs and to propose a rural credit development program; IDA financing for this study has been requested. 1.18 Local Administration. Burundi is subdivided for purposes of territorial administration into 8 provinces, 18 arrondissements (2-3 per province) and 79 communes; communes are further sub-divided into zones and collines (or hills) which are the smallest administrative unit. The Mini- stry of Interior has principal responsibility for local administration and works through its officials posted at each level: governors of provinces, commissaires d'arrondissements, administrateurs des communes, and chefs de zones. These officials coordinate the work of staff of technical ministries who are posted by most departments at province, arrondissement and commune level; for agriculture, an agronomist (university level training) is in charge of the agricultural staff of each province, and all services are organized also at "arrondissement" and communal levels, although extension workers per commune are normally limited in number and have virtually no financial or logistic support. The local administrative system relies on the central government budget, except that there are very small budgets for the communes which essentially complement basic services provided by the central government. Representative local government is restricted to communal councils which serve a largely advisory function. All Burundi citizens are required to work for one day each week on projects of national interest; this community labor ("travaux communautaires") is normally organized by the provincial, "arrondissement", and communal authorities. II. THE FORESTRY SUB-SECTOR General 2.01 Burundi's forest resources occupy about 3% of the country's total area and are dwindling rapidly. Although data on the rate of ex- ploitation of forests and on wood consumption are poor, it is nevertheless clear that forests, both natural and man-made, are being cut down far more rapidly than they are being replaced, and that current wood production is  far below the population's minimal requirements for fuelwood and building timber. Forestry development has not been accorded a high priority in the past, and protection and planting programs in the years since Independence have been small and relatively ineffective. Productivity of forests is low, in part because of weak forest services and the absence of trained staff; even today, Burundi does not have a single national who is a trained fore- ster. The scarcity of wood is directly related to food crop production. The rural population is increasingly using agricultural residues to meet their fuel needs, when wood is not available. Maize, manioc and sorghum stalks, bean and pea hulls, and dried dung are all burnt instead of being returned to the land. This reduces soil fertility and crop yields which in turn increases pressure on land and leads to shortened fallow periods, creating a cycle of degradation and falling production. The urban popula- tion is also directly affected by the wood shortage, as prices of charcoal increase rapidly and periodic shortages occur; imported metal increasingly substitutes for wood in all aspects of construction. The prognosis for the near future is a speedy aggravation of these problems, with expected in- creases in population and the reduction in total forested area, followed by a severe crisis, when charcoal and wood will simply no longer be available; it is the poorest segments of the population who will suffer the brunt of increasing prices and ultimate scarcity. Ecologists are deeply concerned about the likely consequences of the disappearance of forests for Burundi's soil erosion problems, which are already serious, and the possible long-term threat to the stability of the region's overall environment. Some specialists forecast that Burundi's forests will disappear entirely in less than a decade; recently, however, there has been a realization of the gravity of the present situation, and the Government now accords high priority to the development of forest resources and services. Forest Resources 2.02 The total area of forests, woodland savannah and tree plantations in Burundi represents a maximum of 90,000 ha, or about 3% of the country's total area. Areas of natural forest include the remnants of dense montane tropical forest along the Zaire/Nile crestline in the north-west (about 40,000 ha), small areas of savannah woodland (15-20,000 ha) in the south, and forest galleries along water courses and in steep gorges, making a total area of approximately 60,000 ha. In addition, it is estimated that there are some 25,000 ha of forest plantations, mainly Eucalyptus, as well as roadside trees and small woodlots. Ownership of Burundi's forest resources falls into four categories: forests and plantations owned by the government, plantations owned by the communes, plantations owned by religious communities and similar bodies, and privately owned plantations. Ownership rights are in many instances clouded. For example, Eucalyptus plantations planted by the colonial administration were transferred to the communes at Independence; records on these plantations are imprecise, however, leading to confusion on rights to utilize trees and responsibilities for maintenance. Production and Consumption 2.03 Reliable information on Burundi's wood production and consumption is very limited, and analyses of past trends and projections are based in  - 9 - large part on extrapolation from a few surveys and on comparison with inter- national statistics. Data are poor because most wood is cut and used by the rural population, with no controls exercised by the Government; wood marketed for commercial use is theoretically regulated by the Government but a large part escapes official controls. All data and extrapolation, however, support the basic conclusions that demand for wood far outstrips supply, and that forest resources are being used up far more rapidly than they are being re- placed. Further, it is clear that Burundi's scattered forest resources, including the plantations, give relatively low yields, and these appear to be declining. The natural forest has been cut illegally and areas that should have been preserved for ecological reasons have disappeared; any further reduction of areas under natural forest poses a severe threat to the environment. 2.04 Wood Exports and Imports: At present only very small quantities of wood and wood products are imported into Burundi. This is largely because no well-organized suppliers exist within a practical distance from Bujumbura, and costs of imported wood are very high. Official statistics indicate that the total for all imports of wood and wood-derived products represented only about 0.3% of the valu of all imports in 1976. The tea industry imports approximately 60,000 m of plywood for tea chests annually. Other significant wood imports were reported as 68.5 tons of sawn timber, 13.9 tons of round wood, and 192 tons of plywood and particle board, for a total value of about FBu 20 million (US$220,000). While there may be some unofficial wood imports, quantities are also probably very small. Considerable quantities of metal, however, are imported and substitute for wood in the modern construction sector. Metal imports represented about 6% of the value of imports in 1977, pulp and paper products about 2%, and petroleum products about 8%. Burundi exports virtually no wood or wood products. There is some potential for imports of construction timber or wood products from Tanzania, Kenya and Zaire; this might assist Burundi in meeting short term critical wood and fuel requirements. Costs of imported wood products would, however, be high and it seems unlikely that long-term requirements could be met through imports. Petroleum product imports meet a large part of Burundi's energy needs and are likely to increase in the future. 2.05 Wood utilization is relatively small for a country with Burundi's population and is decreasing as the area under forests shrinks. The Innual volume increment of the natural forests is estimated at less than 31 m /ha and the average annual increment of plantations is less than 10 m /ha, Annual forest utilization is currently estimated at about 1 million m (which is a conservative estimate); this level will, if continued, result in the rapid decrease of forest resources, as it significantly exceeds the productive capacity of existing forests and plantations. 2.06 Wood consumption figures are not known accurately; it is likely that the av rage annual wood consumption per capita is currentl! not less than 0.25 m a year, although 3some estimates are as high as 1 m per capita a year. The figure of 0.25 m a year is consistent with estimates of pro- duction cited above; it is relatively low compared with even conservative  - 10 - theoretical estimates of needs, because part of fuel needs is being met by burning agricultural residues, dung, grass and twigs; it seems unlikely, however, that it could be significantly lower. A high proportion of wood consumption is for fuel, especially in the rural areas. Some pole wood and timber are used, but not in quantities comparable to fuelwood. The polewood is used extensively outside the towns for construction and repair of dwellings. Sawn timber, when available, is used for construction, furniture manufacture, boat-building, and other uses. Mobiruldi, the largest of Bujumburl's five furniture factories, uses about 200 m of local Cypress and 100 m of indigenous woods per year. The other furniture factories' consumption is negligible since they mostly use imported metal to make furniture. In addition, some missions have small wood working plants. The Ministry of Agricilture's estimates sf 1976 wood sales were as follows: sawn timber- 926 m ; firewood-60,000 m ; poles-6,490 units; and charcoal-15,000 m equivalent. These figures certainly underestimate actual consumption but reflect well Burundi's low level of wood consumption; By comparison, Kenya's estimated 1980 saws timber requirements are 210,000 m , while Zambia's would be 321,000 m and 1980 fuelwood demand for Zambia is estimated at 5 million m . Marketing and Prices 2.07 Firewood accounts for the bulk of wood consumed in Burundi and it is usually cut directly by consumers in the rural areas, as is pole wood for construction; no payment or permit is involved, with rare exceptions. A small proportion of wood utilized is exploited and marketed through commercial channels. Most of the trade in wood and wood-derived products centers on the Bujumbura market. The most important wood commodity in terms of value is charcoal, which is the preferred source of fuel for most of Bujumbura's popu- lation. Charcoal is normally produced and marketed by small-scale entrepre- neurs. Wood is cut and charcoal produced in situ; exclusively traditional production techniques are employed (burning in earthen pits), and they are highly inefficient - yields of charcoal from wood are at most 15% and probably less than 10%. A rough estimate of Bujumbura's charcoal co 5sump- tion is 7,000 tons a year, or equivalent to about 90,000 - 100,000 m wood equivalent. Until recently, charcoal was readily available; prices were reasonable and fairly stable. In the past few years, however, the general scarcity of wood has resulted in periodic shortages of charcoal, with sharply increasing prices. The Government, concerned by illegal forest cutting and the reduction in forest area, has restricted charcoal production in many areas. Thus, charcoal is coming from increasingly afar, with consequent increases in prices. In Bujumbura, there are six principal charcoal wholesale dealers who buy from suppliers in rural areas; charcoal is retailed at all the principal city markets. Wood for fire-wood and poles is normally marketed by small entrepreneurs, who employ woodcutters. If trees are on government or communal land, a cutting permit and payment of a communal tax aSe normally required. Firewood is stacked into steres (1 stere = 1 m stacked, not solid) when marketed. Poles are classified as small, medium or large if they are marketed. Timber logs are normally  - 11 - pit-sawn by skilled sawyers. Indigenous species are only cut and converted (pit-sawn) by the Regie des Bois (para 2.11) whereas individual cutting permits are issued for plantation timber. Burundi's only "modern" process- ing equipment is an old portable band-sawmill at Bugarama; this mill breaks down frequently due to inadequate supervision, poor operation and lack of spare parts. Its 3annual production is only a small fraction of its rated capacity of 500 m p.a. It processes mostly Cypress thinnings from trees 15-20 years old. Pit-sawing is also resorted to at Bugarama, especially when the sawmill breaks down. The pit saw ers receive FBu 100 per board, and approximately 30-35 3boards make up 1 m . Cypress and Grevillea boards are sold at FBu 7,090/m in situ. As the average 5ecovery rate is only about 35% (i.e. 1 m of round woof produces 0.35 m sawn), and the average cost of conversion is FBu 3,000/m (or even slightly more), exclusive of the cost of felling and extraction, the standing value of the timber is virtually negative in the current permit and fee structure (para 2.08). 2.08 At present, the pricing of wood and wood products in Burundi is somewhat chaotic. The Government has not yet elaborated a coherent policy on pricing of forest products, but is taking steps to articulate and imple- ment one. The problem is complex. For trees on "private land", including all trees planted by farmers, no tax or payment is involved, and by tradi- tion farmers gather and cut wood wherever it is available. In principle, utilization of areas of natural forest, all Government plantations, and communal plantations is strictly regulated, and either a permit fee or a communal tax is payable. In practice, it is difficult, if not impossible, for the Government to control cutting of trees and collect fees; manpower of the forest department is scarce, and plantations are widely scattered, with many in such poor condition that they scarcely warrant a control effort. Illegal cutting of forest is widespread, and one minister stated that it could be stopped only by posting a guard by each tree. The situa- tion is complicated by confusion of records, so that ownership of many small plantations and tree stands is uncertain. The level of permit fees is clearly too low, yet the Government hesitates to increase rates in the fear that it would increase illegal speculation. Prices of wood and wood pro- ducts thus do not reflect the real value of wood, since permit fees for charcoal production and pit sawing amount to a give-away program. Pricing issues are further discussed below. 2.09 Prices of wood and wood products vary widely and are governed largely by market factors. Charcoal prices a few years ago were about FBu 250 (US$2.78) for a 40 kg bag, but by July 1978 had increased to 500 FBu/bag (US$5.56). It seems likely that prices will climb still higher because of wood scarcity. Charges for forest exploitation permits in mid-1978 were as follows: (i) charcoal: FBu 20/bag of approximately 40 kg, (ii) firewood: FBu 200/stere; (iii) poles: these are classified as small, medium or large according to girth and sell for FBu 15, 60 and 100 per piece respectively, (iv) timber; cutting permits are no longer issued for natural forests and all timber which is legally sawn comes from plantations. Trees are classified by girth and prices range from FBu 120 for a tree of 60-69 cm  - 12 - to FBu 1,750 for a tree 150 cm or more in girth. A small communal tax is charged for communal plantations. Although the Forestry Department employs an officer ("Controleur du Bois") to check on all wood and wood-derived products entering Bujumbura and stored and traded there (to ensure that cutting was legal and applicable permits and taxes have been paid), it is not possible for him to do more than carry out spot checks of permits. The possibilities for fraud are very great, effective control is virtually im- possible, and prices in the urban markets follow the law of supply and demand. The selling price for poles is generally reasonable; a piece for which the cutting permit rate was FBu 60 would retail at about FBu 80 (reflecting in all likelihood the fact that no permit fee is paid in most instances). Similarly with timber, a piece of 0.03 m retails for FBu 250-300, which is reasonable when one considers the cost of sawing and transport. Forestry Services 2.10 The Forestry Department is part of the Ministry of Agriculture, Live- stock and Rural Development. The Director of Forestry deals with Fisheries and Wildlife as well as Forestry; he has a Deputy and a Forest Agronomist, as well as a small administrative supporting staff, and is assisted by two Belgian advisers. Forestry services are organized at provincial and "arrondissement" level, with one "agronome forestier" per province and "assistants forestiers" in the "arrondissements", assisted by a varying number of lower level staff, the forest "moniteurs" (about 105 in all). Effective- ness of staff is seriously hampered by lack of transport and supervision. The Forestry Department budget has been very modest until recently: it used to be less than FBu 10 million (US$110,000) p.a., plus a small development budget. However, the development budget increased significantly to FBu 15 million for state plantations in 1976, 20 million in 1977 and 35 million in 1978. In addition, the provinces have small forestry budgets of their own for communal plantations, which are financed by means of communal taxes. Until 1976 new plantations rarely exceeded 250 ha p.a., but in 1977 they came to 750 ha and in 1978 the target is 1,500 ha, of which 1,000 ha would be Government and 500 ha communal plantations. 2.11 The "Regie des Bois du Burundi" was created in 1969 to deal with exploitation and marketing of forest resources. Although designed as a semi- autonomous, commercial style entity, in reality the Regie is simply a special account managed by the Director of Waters and Forests, with no separate status or staff. Revenues from the Bugarama saw mill and from permit fees accrue to this account. In theory, the Regie is authorized to deal with exploitation in government plantations and natural forests, to market and sell forest produce and to buy and sell forest produce from communal and private plantations. Given the low level of development of Burundi's forest industries, however, this role has not been fulfilled to date. 2.12 Training. The need for trained manpower for forestry is crucial, as Burundi has at present no official with professional or technical qualifi- cations in forestry. Existing forest department staff have only general training in agriculture, with no specialization in forestry, and their numbers are far from adequate. The lack of manpower is critical at higher and middle levels. Training in existing agricultural institutions in Burundi includes  - 13 - only a few hours devoted to forestry. There is an urgent need for the Govern- ment to designate staff for training overseas and to encourage on-the-job training in Burundi. Problems and Future Prospects 2.13 Future Energy Needs and Resources: Estimates of future wood needs are still more uncertain than estimates of current consumption, as they are a function of future population size and income level, future wood availability, alternative energy sources, and possible wood imports. One estimate of future fuel needs for the year 2000 in 3terms of wood is 1.3 million tons, equivalent to about one half million m a year, the production of about 50,000 hectares of plantations. Of the possible known alternatives to wood as source of energy, only one, peat, seems at present to be a realistic option. Solar technology is in its infancy and imported petroleum products would in general be prohibitively expensive for Burundi's rural population. Under any circumstances, it is clear that there will be a demand for wood far in excess of current supplies, with demand steadily increasing with the growth of population. In the circumstances, it is vital that Burundi initiate a significant planting program to meet critical minimum needs for fuelwood and sawn timber. The problem is that the theoretical require- ments for plantations far exceed both the capacity of existing forest services and suitable, available land resources. Thus, the scale of plant- ing programs will be determined more by what is possible than by what is desirable, and it will be essential that Burundi develop an effective strategy for meeting its short term and long term energy needs. For the rural population, the ideal solution would be for most rural households to have their own small woodlots to supply their needs in firewool and poles. Assuming that an average rural household requires at least 1 m of wood annually for its minimum domestic needs (the figure should perhaps be twice as high), about 1/10th of a hectare (or 160 trees) would be sufficient to meet these needs more or less indefinitely. 2.14 In the long term, peat offers great promise as an energy source for Burundi. Burundi has large unutilized peat resources, estimated very roughly at 500 million tons (dry weight), which would in theory be sufficient to supply a large part of Burundi's energy needs for many decades. These resources are found in small deposits in valley bottoms in the mountains of the Zaire-Nile divide and in larger deposits along the Akagera River valley and its principal tributary, the Akanyara. Potentially, these peat deposits could provide a source of fuel for the rural population, an alternative to wood for fuel needs of larger institutions and urban populations, and a source of energy for industry and power plants. The Government is currently seeking to explore possibilities for development of peat resources and utilization of peat, but these programs are at a very early stage. A national peat development agency, ONATOUR (Office National de la Tourbe), was established in 1977 with overall responsibility for peat development. Currently ONATOUR is mining peat at three sites in the Zaire-Nile divide mountains; all are small valley bottom sites and manual labor is used exclusively. Production is about 800 tons (dry) a year, although ONATOUR hopes to increase this rapidly to 5,000 tons a year and more. Peat is  - 14 - currently benefitting from a USAID-Catholic Relief Services Project, and has received support under an IDA technical assistance project. Peat is utilized by some Bujumbura bakeries, tea factories, schools, and army barracks, but has not been sold to the general population on any significant scale. Current prices charged by ONATOUR are roughly comparable to prevailing wood prices in terms of calorific value, but ONATOUR charges still reflect a sig- nificant subsidy element. USAID has recently agreed to finance a peat develop- ment project which includes a national survey of peat resources, pilot programs for exploration of peat resources, and some trials with production and utiliza- tion of peat and coke for fuel. Ireland may assist with a survey of peat resources. ONATOUR hopes also to promote trials with semi-mechanized techniques and mechanical exploration in the large submerged deposits of the Akagera Valley. In summary, peat offers excellent long term potential as an energy source. However, considerable research and trials will be required before this potential can be exploited. Peat reserves are poorly known, techniques of peat mining require trials and refinement, and their ecological impact must be carefully assessed. In rural areas, the real cost of .peat use remains to be established and the population will require some time to accept peat use; farmers have been reluctant so far to use peat even when offered free of charge because of high smoke production, an acute problem since traditional dwellings have no chimneys or windows. The technique and economics of use of peat or peat coke on a commercial scale in cities and for industries also remain to be established. 2.15 Future Programs and Policies. The present Burundi Government is keenly aware of the impending fuel-wood crisis and of the long-term damage to the ecology that may result from forest destruction. A symbol of their concern is the proclamation of 1979 as "L'Annee de l'Arbre" (the Year of the Trees). The Government has rapidly increased the Forest Department's planting programs throughout the country and is seeking assistance from several external assistance agencies for large-scale forest protection and planting programs. The Forestry Department budget and planting programs have been increasing rapidly over the last two years, but they are still very modest in relation to-the desired objectives. Forestry programs are impeded by three major problems: (a) the most serious difficulty is a critical shortage of Barundi staff with training in forestry. As a result, the Forest Department's implementation capacity is severely limited, and the Government will be obliged to rely on expatriate assistance for some years to come; (b) Burundi is one of Africa's most densely populated regions and land is increasingly scarce; it is difficult to find unused land, particularly in the vicinity of the few important consumption centers, suitable for large scale plantations. Given the scarcity of arable land and Burundi's rapidly increasing population, new plantations should only be located where crops cannot or should not be grown; and (c) the Government's policies for forest protection and exploitation of plantations have been poorly defined; prices for licenses for cutting timber and fuelwood are so low that wood is effectively given away free of charge and control of cutting is at best disorganized. The practical problems of protecting forests and controlling cutting of the hundreds of scattered plantations are enormous in a country where the rural population has never  - 15 - paid money for wood and has traditionally scavanged for fuelwood and building poles wherever they were available. In these circumstances, it will be essential that the Government continue its efforts to define a coherent set of policies for the forestry sub-sector, including, inter alia, appropriate measures to protect natural forests for environmental purposes, more effective protection and control of plantation resources, concerted effort to plant trees to meet the needs of urban and rural population for fuelwood and sawn timber, more rational pricing policies, and an intensive program of staff training. The proposed Project is specifically intended to assist with development of such a forestry sub-sector policy, both through its production channels and through policy measures in the areas of pricing and training. IDA should continue a dialogue on all issues affecting forestry developments as a part of Project supervision. 2.16 There are two principal ongoing forestry projects: the 3,200 ha FED-financed production-cum-protection IMBO project and the 500 ha FAC- financed protection KIBIRA project (protection: a "cordon sanitaire" around the Zaire/Nile crestline natural forest in the north). FAC has provided support to the Burundi Government in the past for forestry trials, research, and technical assistance. Two other major forestry projects are being studied: a 2,000 ha pilot project by ISABU, to be followed by a 12,000 ha project which would probably be financed by Belgian Cooperation and the Saudi Fund - both projects involving mainly protection plantations on hill tops. Several rural or agricultural development projects which are currently being prepared will also probably contain small forestry components. These include an integrated development program for the Rumonge area and the agricultural development centers project being prepared for possible IDA financing. USAID plans to prepare a forestry development and soil erosion control program in the future. It will be vital that effective coordination among these various projects and programs be assured. This should be handled principally by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development and notably the Waters and Forests Department, but the Ministry of Planning is also aware of the need for assistance with coordination, as some forestry- related developments fall within the responsibilities of other ministries. III. THE PROJECT A. General Description 3.01 The proposed Project would be the first stage of a long-term program to develop basic forestry services and plantations supplying fuel- wood, building poles and timber. It would further the Government's objec- tives of increasing forest production and establishing long-term production and marketing policies for the sub-sector (para. 2.15). The proposed Project would comprise, over five years, the following components. (a) Establishment of 30 nurseries at the communal level to produce eucalyptus seedlings for sale to communes and individuals; nursery staff would provide exten- sion services to local government units and to farmers;  - 16 - (b) The development of a 2,000 ha short rotation eucalyptus plantation at Mageyo (near Bujumbura) to supply charcoal, firewood and construction poles to the population of Bujumbura; (c) The development of 'a 5 ,000 ha pine plantation in Vyanda (Bururi) to produce saw timber; (d) Project management and administration services and in-service training for Barundi counterpart staff; (e) Technical assistance for Project administration; (f) Training of Barundi staff for forestry services; and (g) Studies of Burundi's energy use and needs, trials of new techniques to produce charcoal, development of new designs for cooking stoves, monitoring and evaluation and future project preparation. 3.02 The Department of Water and Forests, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, would have principal responsibility for Project implementation. Within the department, a Project Manager would report to the Director of Forestry and the Project unit would have direct responsibility for all forestry developments. The Director General of Agriculture would be responsible for the training programs and for studies and trials. B. The Project Areas 3.03 Rural nurseries would be developed in 30 communes out of Burundi's 79; each would require the allocation of a very small site for nursery establishment. For plantation development, sites were selected which are sparsely populated and unsuitable for crop development. The Government has reserved by Cabinet Decree of July, 1978 the land required for the proposed Eucalyptus and pine plantations. For the Eucalyptus plantation, the Govern- ment has designated two areas within 50 km of Bujumbura. The first is at Mageyo, east of Bujumbura and north of the main road to Bugarama; some 11 hills, ranging in area from 400 to 2,000 hectares and totalling 4,000 hectares have been reserved for the purpose, and if, as is presently assumed, half of this area is suitable for planting, all the fuelwood plantations would be sited there. Another, less favorable, area has been reserved north of Bujumbura between Bubanza and the Rusizi River consisting of a few hills which total 2,000 ha in area and of which about half should be plantable; this land would probably not be needed, however. Land for the Pine planta- tion has been reserved at Vyanda in Bururi Province on either side of the Buta-Kigwena road, south of Bururi and north of the Nyengwe River. A total area of 29,000 ha has been reserved in order to ensure that 5,000 ha net would be available for planting (see Map).  - 17 - C. Detailed Features Rural Nurseries 3.04 Under the Project, 30 rural nurseries would be established to produce Eucalyptus seedlings to be planted by the rural population, and to strengthen forestry services by providing training and advice at the communal level on the planting and care of young trees. The objective of these nurseries would be to encourage the rural population to cultivate woodlots capable of supplying their domestic fuel needs and to support communal planting programs. At full production each rural nursery would produce about 100,000 seedlings (mostly Eucalyptus) a year, of which about 40% would be planted communally and 60% would be sold to the public. The total area to be planted with seedlings produced by nurseries during the Project period is estimated at more than 5,000 ha. During the first year of the Project period, nurseries would be established in 10 communes and in 10 more during the second and third years each, making a total of 30 communes. The communes selected would be those where the need for wood was most acute and it is expected that eventually all communes would have such a nursery, provided under possible future projects. An area of about 10 ares would be required in each commune; nursery sites chosen would be centrally located with a perennial supply of water and good topsoil. Seed utilized would be of the species Eucalyptus grandis for elevations above 1,200 m. and Eucalyptus tereticornis for other locations; seed would be imported from neighboring countries, as an important objective of the scheme would be to introduce new and better seed stock. According to local agricultural conditions and to farmer demand, nurseries could also produce seedlings of fruit trees and ornamentals and fodder trees for livestock. Each nursery would require nurserymen and headmen as well as permanent laborers and a variable number of casual laborers. This staff would work closely with existing local staff of the Forestry Department in providing extension advice and services. This extension service would focus on visits to farmers and other tree growers to provide advice on all forestry-related matters including, inter alia, siting of homestead woodlots, planting techniques, and proper exploitation of wood resources. The principal investment items would be planting materials (seed, tubes etc), labor for planting, management services for nursery development, and costs of nursery operation and provision of extension services. Eucalyptus Fuelwood Plantation 3.05 Under the Project, a short-rotation Eucalyptus plantation of about 2,000 ha would be established to supply firewood, charcoal and building poles, principally for the population of Bujumbura. During the first year of the Project period, 100 ha would be planted and this area would be increased annually to 600 ha in the fourth and fifth years to make a total of 2,000 ha planted during the Project period. The principal species planted would be Eucalyptus grandis; selected seed would be imported from neighboring countries as seed available in Burundi is of poor quality. Technical aspects of plantation development are described in para 5.06: the principal features would be manual ground preparation, seedling production in one or more nurseries, manual planting and minimal weeding and thinning requirements. Plantations would be coppiced at eight-yearly intervals, with  - 18 - one seedling and three coppice crops. Infrastructure required would include upgrading of existing roads and establishment of forest tracks, fire protec- tion, and buildings for plantation staff housing, offices, stores, and workshops. The principal investment items would be direct afforestation costs for nurseries and planting (materials, equipment and labor), develop- ment of infrastructure (roads and buildings) and plantation operation and maintenance during the Project period. Pine Timber Plantation 3.06 A pine plantation of about 5,000 ha would be developed south of Bururi (Vyanda) to produce saw timber for use throughout Burundi. It is expected that ultimately about 25,000 ha of pine would be planted in the Bururi region, supplying a sawmill which would be developed to process wood production (para. 7.05). The planting program at Vyanda would increase from 300 ha in the first year to 1,500 ha in the last two years, making a total of 5,000 ha over five years. Technical features are described in para 5.07. To support the planting program a nursery or nurseries producing about 1.6 million seedlings a year would be established. The main species would be Pinus patula, a Mexican pine which is a high volume producer and does well in Kenya. Below 1,200 m, in drier warmer conditions, P. kesiya, P. elliottii, and P. caribaea hondurensis would be tried. Ground preparation and planting would be carried out manually. Given the isolation of the area, development of plantation headquarters, including housing for all staff, would be required. Road development requirements would be limited because existing roads cross the area. These would be upgraded and a network of forest tracks established. The principal investment items involved would be direct afforestation costs (labor, seed, planting, watering and other small equipment), the construction of administrative buildings, workshops and housing; the construction and maintenance of access roads; the clearing and maintenance of firebreaks, fire fighting equipment, administrative costs for plantation development, and plantation operation costs during the project period. Project Management Support 3.07 A principal objective of the Project would be to assist in strengthen- ing the present forestry services. A central Project unit would therefore be established within the Forest Department to provide general management support. Provision is made for construction of buildings for Project headquarters at Bujumbura, including offices, workshops and housing. It is expected that the headquarters building would form part of a new Forest Department headquarters; this complex would also house staff units engaged in implementing other forestry projects. Vehicles and equipment would be provided to ensure proper super- vision and Project execution. The principal investment items would be buildings, vehicles and equipment, and operating costs of the central Project management unit during the Project implementation period. Technical Assistance 3.08 Technical assistance would be required for Project management and to train Barundi forestry staff to manage Project developments. It would be re- quired because suitably qualified Barundi staff are not available (para 2.12). A team of specialists would be engaged and would include a Project manager and  - 19 - two silviculturists. In addition, volunteers provided with FAC assistance may provide additional technical support for plantation operation and develop- ment. The estimated cost of technical assistance per man-month, including all direct costs, would be between US$6,000 and US$8,000. Training 3.09 The Project would include a component designed to establish a systematic long-term training program to provide Barundi staff for forestry services at higher and intermediate levels. Training for lower level staff, including extension workers, would be on-the-job, with the possibility of short courses as appropriate, and training would be specifically defined as central responsibility of technical assistance personnel engaged for Project management. Most training would be at specialized institutions in Europe and other African countries, as no specialized programs are offered in Burundi. In addition, provision has been made for training visits to forestry projects in neighboring African countries. A detailed training program is currently being drawn up by the Government, in consultation with FAO and ILO specialists. This program will be based on projections of manpower requirements for the forestry sub-sector, including all projects under implementation or preparation (para 4.07). Studies and trials 3.10 Various studies would be undertaken as part of the Project. One study would assess the future energy needs of Burundi; trials would be con- ducted of more efficient charcoal-making by means of modern portable kilns, and a study would be carried out to develop simple and economical cooking equipment for use by the rural population. In addition, the Project includes provision for monitoring and evaluation studies, some additional studies and trials, and preparation of future projects for the forestry sub-sector. Additional studies might include specific studies of operating problems and trials of fodder trees to determine technical results and social acceptability. D. Project Costs 3.11 Total Project costs are estimated at about FBu 695 million (US$7.7 million), of which about US$3.9 million or 50% represent foreign exchange costs. Details are summarized in the following table;  - 20 - FBu Million US$'000 Project Component Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Rural Nurseries 26.7 9.7 36.4 293 108 401 Eucalyptus Plantation 48.9 25.9 74.8 535 288 823 Pine Plantation 100.5 59.6 161.1 1,099 673 1,772 Project Management 20.3 10.8 31.1 222 120 342 and Administration Technical Assistance 12.7 106.1 118.8 131 1,179 1,310 Training 5.0 45.0 50.0 55 500 555 Studies and Trials 23.8 19.9 43.7 260 221 481 Total 238.8 277.0 515.8 2,595 3,089 5,684 Contingency Allowances Physical 30.6 34.8 65.4 338 382 720 Price 104.1 116.1 220.2 1,138 1,284 2,422 Total Contingencies 134.7 150.9 285.6 1,476 1,666 3,142 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 374.5 427.9 801.4 4,071 4,755 8,826 Project costs were estimated at prices as of March 1979. A physical contin- gency of 15% was applied to forestry developments and Project administration and of 10% to other Project components to reflect general uncertainty about the detailed scope of Project investments. Price contingencies were cal- culated on a cumulative basis: local costs at the rate of 15% per annum; foreign exchange costs, at 7% per annum for civil works, and 6% per annum for equipment and other items. Taxes included in Project costs are negligible since virtually all items would be exempt from import duties. Details of Project costs are summarized in Table 1. E. Financing 3.12 Financing of Project costs would be shared as follows:  - 21 - FBu US$ % (million) (million) Government of Burundi 72.4 0.77 9 F.A.C. (France) 167.4 1.86 21 U.N.D.P. 63.6 0.70 8 EEC Special Action Account 108.0 1.20 13 IDA 390.0 4.30 49 Total Project Cost 801.4 8.83 100 3.13 The proposed IDA credit of US$4.3 million would be to the Govern- ment of Burundi on standard IDA terms. The Credit would finance about 49% of total Project costs, including about 43% of foreign exchange costs and 55% of local costs. The European Economic Community Special Action Account would finance a total of US$1.2 million equivalent, representing 13% of total Project costs, for buildings estimated at US$0.8 equivalent and for studies estimated at US$0.4 equivalent. IDA would act as administrator of the EEC Special Action Account under a separate agreement between IDA and the Government of Burundi. The signature of such an agreement would be a condi- tion of credit effectiveness. UNDP has agreed to finance overseas fellowships in forestry and also to finance an early study tour for Barundi staff de- signated to manage the Project. Its contribution, of about US$701,000, would finance about 8% of total Project costs. FAC have agreed to finance technical assistance costs of the Project, which would represent an estimated 21% of total Project costs. FAC would cooperate fully with IDA on all aspects of Project administration. The Government of Burundi would contribute about 9% of total Project costs. The effectiveness of the IDA credit would be condi- tional on appropriate undertakings to finance technical assistance and train- ing by FAC and UNDP respectively. A Project revolving fund should be estab- lished by the Government managed by the Project Director under direct control of the Director of Forestry, to ensure that adequate funds are available for efficient Project administration. Assurances regarding establishment and maintenance of this fund were obtained during negotiations, and it would be a condition of credit effectiveness that the fund had been established with a minimum balance of US$200,000 equivalent. F. Procurement 3.14 Contracts for the supply of materials and equipment exceeding US$80,000 would be awarded after international competitive bidding in accord- ance with Bank/IDA guidelines. Contracts would be bulked to the extent possible. Contracts for materials and equipment costing less than US$80,000 would be awarded following Government procurement procedures, with the  - 22 - proviso that for purchases of materials and equipment costing above US$20,000 bids or requests for price quotations should be sought from suppliers representing at least three countries; these procedures were examined during appraisal and are satisfactory. Proposed awards of contracts for procurement of materials and equipment costing above US$20,000 would be submitted to IDA for review. The civil works envisaged under the Project are small in size, and would be scattered throughout Burundi; they would therefore be unlikely to attract international firms, and international bidding would not be appropriate. Development of the plantation sites would be undertaken directly by the Project management services. For the major buildings (Project head- quarters and housing), local contractors would be selected after local competitive bidding in accordance with Government procedures which are satisfactory to IDA. Part of the road works would be carried out directly by the Project management services and part by a newly created mechanical pool of the Department of Genie Rural (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development). This pool was specifically designed for such purposes and should carry out the works involved in a satisfactory manner, at costs that should be well below these quoted by major contracting firms or the Department of Public Works. Other civil works, (small buildings etc), would be carried out by the Project Management Unit through force account. Assur- ances as.to these procedures were obtained during negotiations. Items financed under the EEC Special Action Credit would be procured according to IDA procedures, but would be limited to EEC and eligible countries. G. Disbursement 3.15 Funds from the Credit account would be disbursed over five years on the following basis: US$ million (a) 100% of foreign exchange expenditures or 90% of local expenditures for vehicles, equipment and materials; 0.9 (b) 90% of total expenditures for civil works, including road works, and direct costs of plantation development; 1.8 (c) 90% of total expenditures for operating costs of Project implementation; 0.8 (d) 100% of foreign exchange expenditures or 90% of local expenditures for project preparation work, and monitoring and evaluation; 0.3 (e) An unallocated sum representing part of price con- tingencies. 0.5 Total IDA credit 4.3  - 23 - Disbursement against (a) and (d) would be fully documented. Disbursements against (b) and (c) would be made against statements of expenditure certified by the Director of Waters and Forests and the Ministry of Finance. These would be made available for inspection by IDA in the course of Project supervision missions. An estimated schedule of IDA disbursements is given in Table 2. The EEC funds would be disbursed as follows: 90% of total expenditures for civil works (construction of buildings) and 100% of foreign expenditures or 90% of local expenditures for studies and trials. H. Accounts and Audit 3.16 The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development would maintain separate accounts adequate to explain all Project activities. These accounts would form part of the Ministry's overall accounts and would be controlled and reviewed following normal Government financial control proce- dures which are satisfactory. Control procedures involve principally a pre-expenditure control followed by annual review of accounts, both to be carried out by the Ministry of Finance. The Department of Waters and Forests would prepare a report summarizing the financial situation of all Project activities and a description of control procedures each year. This report would be reviewed by the Ministry of Finance and the accounts would be audited by the Banque de la Republique du Burundi (BRB), which is the Burundi Central Bank. The audited accounts would be submitted to IDA within six months of the close of each fiscal year. There are no private independent accounting firms in Burundi. BRB currently audits the accounts of commercial banks and of parastatal institutions, and it has a staff of trained auditors for this purpose. BRB is independent from the Ministry of Finance and its audit staff is qualified to review records of Project financial transactions and control procedures. The Government would also make arrangements satis- factory to IDA, for BRB audit of expenditures made against a certificate of expenditures (para. 3.15). Assurances on implementation of these accounting and audit procedures of Project investments were obtained during negotiations. I. Environmental Impact 3.17 The rapid deforestation of Burundi poses a grave threat to the ecological stability not only of the Zaire/Nile crest zone, but of the entire country. Not only does soil erosion increase with the cutting down of trees, but soil fertility decreases as agricultural residues are used for fuel instead of being returned to the land. The main impact of the proposed Project would be to assist the Government's efforts to control this process of degradation by providing additional sources of firewood and establishing long term policies and practices to protect Burundi's forest resources. This should reduce illegal cutting of forests and, in conjunction with other projects and programs, provide sufficient fuel so that the rural population reduces its reliance on agricultural residues, dung, etc. for fuel. The pine plantation would have a generally beneficial impact in the Vyanda area, reducing soil erosion which is becoming a problem in that region.  - 24 - IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT A. Project Organization and Staffing General 4.01 The Department of Waters and Forests of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development would have principal responsibility for imple- mentation of the Project's forestry development components. A Project manage- ment unit would be established within the Department, supervised directly by the Director of Water and Forests; the unit would be responsible for develop- ment and operation of rural nurseries and the Eucalyptus and Pine plantations. The Project management unit would include a Project manager, a deputy Project manager, two silviculturists, an accountant and support staff (see Chart 2), plus staff located at the site of plantations. The rural nurseries would be run by the unit but in close coordination with regional forestry services. Each plantation would be managed as a separate unit. Studies, monitoring and evaluation, and future project preparation work would be the responsibility of the Director General of Agriculture, who would delegate responsibility to the Director of Waters and Forests and other officials as appropriate. 4.02 Shortages of trained manpower are everywhere a serious impediment to development in Burundi, but the lack of staff for forestry is particular- ly acute. For this reason, substantial technical assistance would be required for Project management. It is expected that the technical assistance team would include a Project Manager and two silviculturists; the team should be provided by a consulting firm to ensure appropriate technical and administra- tive backstopping. FAC, which would finance technical assistance, has tenta- tively designated the CFTF as consultants for the Project; this choice is appropriate, as CFTF is currently responsible for implementing other forestry projects in Burundi. They have performed well, and their involvement in the proposed Project would facilitate coordination among projects under way and proposed and promote continuity. 4.03 Apart from the technical assistance team, it would be essential that sufficient numbers of qualified Barundi staff were available for Project activities. This would be important both to ensure that Project implementation is satisfactory and to enable expatriate personnel to train Barundi staff to manage Project developments in the future. Terms of reference for all key Project staff (Project manager and deputy, two inter- nationally recruited silviculturists, three deputy silviculturists, and accountant) were discussed during negotiations, and assurances were obtained that IDA would approve terms of reference and qualifications for these posts; assurances should also be obtained that IDA would be consulted on appointments to all these positions. The appointment of the Project manager, his deputy, two silviculturists, and an accountant would be condi- tions of credit effectiveness. Given the crucial importance of training of forestry staff, assurances were obtained that the Government would submit an annual report on the progress of the training program to IDA.  - 25 - Management of Project Components 4.04 Rural Nurseries: The rural nurseries would be run by the Project management unit in close coordination with regional forestry services. The internationally recruited silviculturist in charge of the Eucalyptus planta- tion sub-project would have special responsibility for overseeing this com- ponent and he would be assisted by a deputy silviculturist who would work full time on the nurseries. The provincial "Agronome Forestier" and the communal level "Assistant Forestier" would be closely associated with super- vision of nursery operations and extension activities of nursery staff within their area of jurisdiction, in keeping with the objective that these nurseries ultimately be integrated into the local forestry services. Possibilities of providing bonuses or other incentives for extension staff to reward performance would be considered during Project implementation. A nurseryman (certificate level training) would be responsible for each nursery, supported by headmen, some permanent staff, and a variable number of casual laborers. Extension services provided would involve principally advice and training to institutions and individual farmers on appropriate forestry practices, including planting and care of trees and exploitation of existing plantations. This would involve visits to farmers and communal plantations to follow-up on extension advice. 4.05 Eucalyptus sub-project: Mageyo. The internationally recruited Silviculturist (Eucalyptus) responsible for the rural nurseries, would also be responsible for development and operation of the Eucalyptus plantation. He would be assisted by a Murundi Forest Agronomist (A2) as deputy (employed full time on the subproject), two Assistant Foresters (A3), two forest 'moniteurs," up to seven plantation guards, three drivers, a few artisans (bricklayers, etc.), two to four nurserymen and headmen, between 50 and 100 permanent laborers and a variable number of casual laborers. In addition to the sub-project office/stores, which would be built at Mageyo, houses would be provided at the plantation site for the Forest Agronomist, the two assistant foresters and the three drivers. The management arrangements would be suitable for plantation development and maintenance. New arrangements for eventual exploitation would be agreed on between the Borrower and IDA at a future date (Chapter VII). 4.06 Vyanda Pine sub-project: The sub-project would be established and managed under the direction of an internationally recruited Silviculturist (Pine), with a Murundi Forest Agronomist (A2) as deputy. The forest staff would include two Assistant Foresters (A3), four forest "moniteurs", one secretary-typist, one mechanic and two assistant mechanics, five drivers, six to twelve artisans (bricklayers, carpenters, etc.), four to eight nurserymen and headmen, one hundred to two hundred permanent laborers and a large, but variable number of casual laborers. All the staff down to the grade of driver would eventually be housed. A plantation headquarters would be set up at a convenient place in the center of the area, near a perennial source of water. As far as possible the administrative buildings and the staff houses would all be built on the same site. A central nursery would also be constructed as close as possible to the headquarters - depending on water availability. One or more small nurseries might eventually be required, if only as depots,  - 26 - higher up or lower down, in order to reduce the cost of transport. As in the case of the Eucalyptus plantaton, future management of the plantation for purposes of exploitation would be discussed at a future date (para 4.05). 4.07 Training: The training program would be broad based and be addressed to personnel at all levels (para. 3.09). The detailed program would be designed by a UNDP specialist in cooperation with Government officials, and would be based on an assessment of critical manpower requirements for the forestry sub-sector. The program would be supervised by the Director General of the Ministry of Agriculture in close cooperation with UNDP staff. Progress with the training program would be discussed periodically between the Borrower, IDA and UNDP (para 4.03). 4.08 Studies and Trials: Like the training component, this component would be the responsibility of the Director General of Agriculture; he would delegate responsibility for specific studies to various departments and agencies as appropriate, and would specifically be responsible for ensuring proper coordination with the Ministry of Planning on energy-related matters. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that terms of reference for the studies and trials be submitted to IDA for approval. A study of Burundi's projected energy needs until the year 2000 is already under consideration by the Agricultural Section of the Department of Studies and Satistics, Ministry of Planning. The proposed study would be undertaken by the Ministry of Planning but it would be prepared and monitored with assistance from IDA's Energy, Water and Telecommunications Department. For the trials of improved charcoal production methods, it would be necessary to import kilns of advanced design. A consultant would be recruited to train local operators and supervisors in their use with the intention that, by the end of the Project period, the operation could be handed over to a private enterprise. For development of economical cooking equipment, a contest for ideas and designs on a national level may provide a suitable point of departure. Additional studies and trials related to forestry problems would be designed and carried out in accordance with specific problems and needs identified during Project implementation (para.' 3.10). B. Project Implementation Schedule 4.09 The Project would be implemented over a five year period from 1979 to 1984. Table 3 shows a tentative Project implementation schedule. This was discussed during negotiations. The Government is currently working on an agreed program to facilitate Project start-up, including selection of staff, detailed mapping of Project areas, and preparation of plans for Project headquarters buildings and housing. C. Monitoring and Evaluation 4.10 Burundi has not yet established a system for monitoring of Project progress. Therefore, the Project Manager and the Forestry Department in  - 27 - consultation with IDA, would establish a simple monitoring plan to provide key indicators of Project progress. This plan would be kept under constant review by supervision missions from IDA and would be amended from time to time, if necessary. The main subjects of interest would include: the number or rural nurseries in operation and their annual production and sales; area (ha) successfully planted and established (Eucalyptus and Pine); lengths of various new roads and tracks built; lengths of new firebreaks created; new buildings and housing, and the impact of planting programs on the local population specifically including links between forestry development and livestock in Project areas. The Government would submit regular half- yearly and annual reports on the Project. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations. Project Completion Report 4.11 The Government should prepare a completion report summarizing performance under the Project and evaluating its successes and problems. This should be submitted to IDA not later than six months after the ex- pected closing date (i.e. March, 1985), and assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations. V. TECHNICAL AND PRODUCTION ASPECTS Technical Aspects 5.01 Topography and Soils: In general the topography of all sites designated for forestry developments is hilly. The underlying geological system of designated plantation sites (as for the whole country) is the Rusizian system which is related to the Ubendian system of Tanzania. The strata of this system are extremely folded and all the rocks are meta- morphic, consisting mainly of various crystalline schists, gneisses, quart- zites and micashists. There are few precise data on the soils of the Project areas but a topographical survey of the areas is at present being carried out. The soils found on the hills of the Mageyo sub-project area appear to be reasonably fertile and deep, though some parts show more or less serious traces of soil erosion. The altitude varies between 1,500 and 2,000 m. The vegetation consists mostly of grass, especially Eragrostis. It is estimated that over one half of the area has slopes suitable for planting (between 30 and 60%). The country in the Vyanda sub-project area is very hilly with a high proportion of steep slopes; the altitude varies between 900 and 1,900 m and it is estimated that half of the area is theoretically plan- table. The soils appear to be reasonably fertile, though precise information is lacking at this stage. 5.02 Climate and Rainfall. The Mageyo area has an annual rainfall of between 1,300 - 1,600 mm with the main precipitation occurring from October to April and the main dry season from June to August. The average tempera- ture is around 20 0C throughout the year with occasional minima around 150C and maxima up to 25 or 30 C. Hail is said to occur but is not thought to pose any problem. The average rainfall in Vyanda varies from 1,300 to 1,400 mm on high ground and from 1,000 to 1,100 mm lower down. Mist frequently  - 28 - occurs at higher elevations. The main rainy season is from September to May with the peak in March/April. June to August are the dry months although there are typically some short rains during the dry season and a short dry season in January/February. The average annual temperature is around 250C with occasional minima as low as 10 C and maxima of 25 0C. Frost does not occur and hail is not thought to be a problem. 5.03 Population and Land Use: Most land in the areas designated for plantation development is currently unutilized or employed by the local population for extensive grazing of livestock. Population in both areas is relatively sparse, although no precise census has as yet been undertaken. During appraisal the Government agreed to conduct detailed topographic sur- veys of proposed plantation sites to determine more precisely location of planting areas and to assess the extent of expropriation required in order to carry out plantation developments (para 5.08). This matter was discussed during negotiations. 5.04 Land Tenure. By law, unutilized land belongs to the Government and can be readily used for forest development (para 1.06). In designating land for plantation development, a principal criterion was the selection of sites which were sparsely populated, largely to avoid the need to expropriate farmers and to avert possible friction with the local population. In plan- ning planting programs, cultivated areas would be avoided except in unusual cases when compensation would be paid. The Government's development rights in the designated plantation areas have been confirmed by Cabinet Decree (para 3.02). The Government and IDA agreed in principle during appraisal that: (a) no land would be utilized for planting that would be suitable for crop cultivation; and (b) that expropriation of farms would be kept to the minimum level feasible. Although no formal assurances to this effect are proposed, the position of land tenure and the impact of plantation develop- ments on the local population should be carefully monitored throughout Project implementation (para 4.10). Further, the problem of land tenure and expro- priation would be reviewed by IDA in conjunction with approval of detailed planting programs (para 5.08). For rural nurseries, land tenure should present no problems since farmers would plant woodlots on their own land, and communes and institutions on unutilized communal land. Rural Nurseries 5.05 Rural nurseries would be established at suitable sites in 30 designated communes. A site of about 10 ares would be required, with good soils and a perennial water source. The total annual production of rural nurseries would be about 100,000 seedlings per selected commune once in full operation and it is assumed that this rate of production would be maintained following the Project period. The species planted would be Eucalyptus grandis or Eucalyptus tereticornis, although a few ornamentals and fodder trees might also be produced if farmer demand was adequate. It is assumed that each commune would plant on communal land, at communal expense and for communal use, 10 ha of Eucalyptus plantations during the first year of operations, and 20 ha annually for as long as the nursery program continued; the areas thus planted would be modest in relation to rural wood needs for  - 29 - most communes and production from the plantations would be readily utilized. Planting would be undertaken by the commune administration itself and by schools, missions and other institutions. The number of seedlings required per ha is 2,000. Therefore 40,000 seedlings would be required for communal plantations from the second year of operations onwards in each commune. In addition, it is intended to produce 60,000 seedlings for sale to the public in each commune. Production is summarized below: Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total No. of Nurseries in operation 10 20 30 30 30 - Annual production per nursery ('000) 50 10 nur.@ 50 10 nur.@ 50 100 100 - 10 nur.@100 20 nur.@100 Total no. of seedlings produced ('000) 500 1,500 2,500 3,000 3,000 10,500 Suitable for a planting program of (ha) 250 750 1,250 1,500 1,500 5,250 Excluding contingencies and technical assistance overhead costs, it has been calculated that the average production cost would be about FBu 3.9 per seedling at 1979 prices. Mageyo Eucalyptus Plantation 5.06 (a) Afforestation: The planting program would be 100 ha in year 1, 300 ha in year 2, 400 ha in year 3, and 600 ha each in years 4 and 5. Estimated seedlings required per hectare planted would be about 2,000, including 25% allowance for failures. Seed utilized would be principally Eucalyptus grandis (saligna), imported, selected seed, which should produce the best yields in the prevailing conditions. Seed would be sown in black polythene tubes, and shading of seedlings would be avoided. Planting stock required would be about 0.2 million in Year 1, increasing to 1.2 million in years 4 and 5. It would be produced in a single central nursery with possible small satellite nurseries. Ground preparation would involve only manual pitting; mechanical preparation was considered but would increase production costs substantially without significantly increasing yields. One tractor and three trailers would be required for transport of plants from nursery to plantation. The planting rate is assumed to be 150 plants per manday, equivalent to 14 mandays per hectare including transport of plants. One tenth of the area only would be fertilized, in order to determine the need for fertilization under future planting programs. Replacement of failures over 10% of planted area is assumed. Because of the relatively fast growth rate of Eucalyptus, the close initial spacing and poorly developed ground vegetation, weeding should be required only in the first year. No pruning or thinning would be required. It is assumed that the Eucalyptus would be coppiced at 8-yearly intervals with one seedling crop and three coppice crops, yielding 15, 15, 12, and 10 m /ha per crop, res- pectively.  - 30 - (b) Indirect Afforestation Activities: The plantation area is traversed by a communal road approximately 15 km long, which would require minor improve- ments. An estimated additional 5 km of roads and 60 km of forest tracks would be developed. Access roads would be 5-7 m wide and tracks 3.5 m. Average density per 100 ha of plantation would be 1 km for access roads and 3 km for tracks. Cost of annual road maintenance is estimated at 10% of initial con- struction cost. For fire protection, maximum use would be made of any natural features, including indigenous forest which can act as a firebreak in some circumstances; in addition, about 1 km of cleared fireline per 10 ha of planta- tion would be required (equivalent to firelines around blocks averaging 16 ha). Maintenance operations would include reclearing of firelines, one permanent patrolman per 200 ha for protection against fire, theft, and browsing damage, firefighting when needed, and standby crews at times of high risk. Equipment required would include water tanks, trailers for tractors, and back pack sprayers. (c) Production Costs may be summarized as follows: Direct afforesta- tion costs per hectare would be about FBu 11,500 (US$128), plus continuing maintenance costs; of this, ground preparation represents 47% of these costs, seedling production 30%, transport of plants 8%, planting 9% and fertilizing 7%. Indirect capital costs per hectare are estimated at FBu 17,500 (US$195), of which roads represent 32%, building 46%, transport 20%, and fire protection 2%. Recurrent costs of plantation operation and main- tenance per hectare are estimated at FBu 4,500 (US$50) during the Project period, and from Year 6 onwards about FBu 2,250 (US$25) per hectare. (d) Production is estimated as follows: Year Yield (m 3/ha) MAI (m /ha) 8 - seedling 120 15 16 - coppice 1 120 15 24 - coppice 2 96 12 32 - coppice 3 80 10 Vyanda Pine Plantation 5.07 (a) Afforestation: The planting program would be 300 ha in Year 1, 700 ha in Year 2, 1,000 ha in Year 3, and 1,500 ha in Years 4 and 5. Ground preparation would be carried out by manual pitting, which is standard practice in Burundi. Mechanical ground preparation was considered, but direct cost would be over FBu 8,000 per hectare, plus all costs of an expatriate mechanic and other overhead costs, and benefits would be uncertain. Small-scale trials with mechanical ground preparation would be carried out to determine possible benefits for future planting programs. It is assumed that no significant clearance of existing vegetation would be required. Seedling Production: an estimated 1,400 plants would be required per hectare, allowing 25% for losses, failures, etc. Selected, imported seed, principally Pinus patula, would be sown in black polythene tubes. A central nursery would be constructed as close as possible to headquarters, with possibly one or two smaller nurseries closer to planting areas. An estimated .42 million plants would be required for the planting program in Year 1, increasing to 2.1 million plants a year in Years 4 and 5. Some Eucalyptus seedlings would also be produced for firelines and possibly for sale to farmers. For transport of plants, 3 tractors and 6  - 31 - trailers would be required, although this equipment would also be utilized for transporting building materials, nursery soil, workers etc. The daily output for planting is estimated at 150 plants per manday in areas which have been manually prepared by pegging and pitting, equivalent to 10 mandays per hectare including related costs. An estimated 10% of the total planting area would be fertilized. Allowance has been made for replacement of failures for about 10% of the annual planting program. Manual spot weeding would be carried out during the first and second year after planting. Pruning operations would be carried out in Years 6, 9 and 12. Thinning would be required in Years 12, 15, and 18, with clear felling of all standing timber in Year 25. (b) Indirect Afforestation Activities: Road development would involve improvement of the principal existing road traversing the Project area, which links up with the lakeside road of Kigwena; an additional 10 km of access roads and about 150 km of forest tracks would be developed. Access road width would be 5-7 m and forest tracks 3.5; density of roads per 100 km of planta- tion would be 1 km for access roads and 3 km for forest track. Road main- tenance costs are estimated at 10% of initial construction costs. Fire protection: would involve several types of fire lines, making use of indi- genous forest, roads, cultivated lines and cleared firebreaks. Planted Eucalyptus firebreaks would be established where appropriate at a density of 1 km of firelines per 50 ha of pine plantation, while firelines of 3 m wide and clean cultivated strips of the same size would be utilized in other areas. Continuing fire protection activities would include clean cultiva- tion of fire tracks, fire watching and fighting (1 patrolman per 200 ha of plantation). Overhead costs would include management and labor, building construction and maintenance (housing for all staff, guest house, offices, stores and workshops), transport equipment and operation, and surveys and training. (c) Production costs may be summarized as follows: Direct afforestation costs per hectare would be about FBu 9,300 (US$103), of which 39% represents ground preparation, 36% seedling production, 10% transport of plants, and 8% planting costs. Weeding, pruning and thinning costs would average about FBu 500 a year. Indirect afforestation capital costs per hectare are esti- mated at FBu 16,000 (US$178), of which 35% represents road construction, 45% building construction, and 18% transport equipment. Recurrent costs per hectare would be about FBu 4,300 (US$48) a year during the Project period (55% representing direct costs of expatriates) and FBu 2,250 (US$90) a year thereafter. (d) Production per ha is estimated as follows:  - 32 - Year Volume m /ha Average Vol/T5ee Removed Sawlogs Smallwood Total m 12 20 15 35 0.12 15 35 20 55 0.22 18 40 20 60 0.40 25 120 30 150 0.50 Total Volume Production 215 85 300 3 MAI = 12 m /ha 72% 28% 100% Detailed Planting Programs 5.08 The Government is currently undertaking detailed topographic surveys of the Mageyo and Vyanda areas, in order to facilitate the preparation of detailed planting programs for each area. These plans, which should specific- ally consider the agricultural potential of proposed planting sites and the degree of expropriation required (if any), should be submitted to IDA for approval prior to initiating the planting program. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations. Producer Benefits 5.09 The rural nursery program would benefit up to 50,000 farmers in 30 of Burundi's 79 communes by supporting the planting of communal and farm wood lots. There would be no financial benefits for these producers, however, as virtually all wood produced would be utilized by farmers themselves. The Government would likely be the principal direct beneficiary of the Eucalyptus and Pine plantations. VI. GOVERNMENT BENEFITS 6.01 In undertaking the proposed Project, the Government of Burundi is in effect committed to a long-term development program that will not yield financial or other benefits for many years. In particular, the Vyanda Pine plantation would fulfill its long-term objectives only if up to 25,000 ha of plantations are eventually established in the Bururi region, providing sustained wood supplies for a sawmilling industry. Full benefits would not be attained for 25 years, although some timber could be produced after 12 to 14 years. The Mageyo Eucalyptus plantation would be fully productive after 8 years. For both plantations, maintenance costs during the lengthy develop- ment period would be the responsibility of the Government, although external financing might be available for some of these costs. Annual maintenance costs of the Eucalyptus plantation following the Project period (1979 prices) are estimated at about FBu 4.5 million (US$50,000) a year; for the  - 33 - Vyanda Pine plantation they would average about FBu 11.3 million (US$125,000) a year from 1985 onwards. In both cases, it is assumed that no further expatriate management assistance would be required. The rural nurseries would, at least initially, be fully supported by the Government budget; the estimated annual operating cost of 30 nurseries at full development (Year 4) is estimated at about FBu 10 million (US$110,000). It is expected that at least a part of these costs would be recovered from farmers through payment of a charge reflecting costs of production; at 1979 prices, this charge should be about FBu 4 per plant (para 5.05) and would produce revenues at full development of about FBu 7 million a year. Introduction of charges to farmers should, however, be cautious, as farmers are not accustomed to pay for many inputs and services and might resist payment for seedlings in cash. Current Government practice is that coffee and other seedlings are distri- buted free of charge, and this might discourage payment for Eucalyptus seedlings. Government officials have indicated their wish to establish a national policy of recovery of costs of inputs from beneficiaries principally in order tu generate adequate revenue to continue and expand rural services. Introduction of charges for seedlings should be planned as part of this broader policy, rather than in isolation. If farmers proved unwilling to pay cash for seedlings, and if no coherent cost recovery policy were introduced for other inputs, then the practice of requiring payment for Eucalyptus seedlings should be reviewed in order to ensure that farmers had adquate incentives to plant trees. Alternative solutions might involve a reduced charge for seedlings, or distribution of seedlings in conjunction with communal labor schemes. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Government would, to the extent feasible, charge to farmers the full cost of seedlings (excluding expatriate management costs), and that they would consult periodically with IDA on the level of charges for seedlings, including specifically the adequacy of incentives to farmers to plant trees. Revenue to the Government from the Eucalyptus and Pine plantations would be determined by stumpage charges and exploitation arrangements, which are discussed below in paras 7.01 and 7.05-5. Table 4 shows a tentative Gov- ernment Project-related cash flow. VII. MARKETS AND PRICES General 7.01 The Burundi Government has not yet established a clear policy for pricing and marketing of forest products (para 2.08). Utilization and marketing of wood are largely uncontrolled by the Government, and although permits are required for cutting trees in Government or communal forests, fees charged are so low that they represent only a minute proportion of production costs; even so, considerable quantities of wood are taken from Government forests without authorization or payment, and because of the difficulties of exercising effective controls over the nation's scattered forests, the Government hesitates to raise fees rapidly. The Government agreed during appraisal that pricing policies relating to the forestry sub- sector require clear definition as a matter of high priority, and that fees for forest exploitation should gradually be increased to a level reflecting the economic value of the trees. This would both increase Government revenue  - 34 - from the forest sub-sector, and perhaps slow down forest destruction. General pricing policies would be subject of periodic discussions between the Govern- ment and IDA throughout the Project implementation period. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Government accepts the principle that charges for all forest products regulated by the Government should re- flect costs of production and that a charge system reflecting this principle would be introduced as rapidly as possible, consistent with the need to ensure effective Government protection and control of forest resources. Assurances were also obtained that the Government and IDA would consult at least once a year on general pricing and marketing policies affecting the forestry sub-sector, and that, for production resulting from the proposed Project, stumpage rates charged would reflect the full costs of production for plantation development and maintenance. Rural Nurseries 7.02 Previous experience in Burundi suggests that farmers would be keen to plant trees, and it is expected that production from rural nurseries would therefore be readily accepted and utilized by farmers. Forest department nurseries have operated for several years in many parts of the country, and have never encountered any difficulty in distributing all available seedlings. However, there has been to date no significant experience with sale of seedlings, although Government officials report that when charged for services, including veterinary products and (human) health needs, farmers have proved willing to pay such charges to a surprising degree. The principal issue for the nursery program is the level of charges for seedlings, which is discussed in para 6.01 above. Eucalyptus Production 7.03 The market for Eucalyptus plantation production is virtually guaranteed since it would be producing fuelwood for Bujumbura in quantities which are relatively small in comparison to demand. Assuming a coppice rotatio5 of 8 years, 4 coppice rotations, a constant mean annual increment of 15 m /ha (though in fact this will probably be reduced by 20% after the second rotation and by a further 20% after the third rotation), and a dis- counting interest rate of 10%, the theoretical stumpage rate (standing value) assuming 5overage of pro uction costs based on mid 1979 costs should be FBu 800/m . One solid m of wood (specific gravity when dry = 0.6) should produce about 20% of its weight in charcoal, i.e. 120 kg or 3 bags of 40 kg, if good carbonization techniques are used. To the value of wood should also be added the cost of felling and stacking, carbonization, transport and mar- keting, which would at least double the value of thS end product (charcoal). Thus, if the stumpage rate of the wood is FBu 800m , a bag of 40 kg would have to be sold for at least FBu 550 - which is not much higher than the current (July 1978) price of FBu 500. Similarly for poles, the selling prices would have to be related to the stumpage rate, but should not be much in excess of the prices obtaining now. Wood scarcity will inevitably force prices up in any case. It is expected that the Eucalyptus plantation would be exploited either by a parastatal company established for the purpose or  - 35 - by private entrepreneurs working on a licence basis. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that Government would consult with IDA before June 30, 1984 on marketing and pricing arrangements for future exploitation of the Eucalyptus produced. Pine 7.04 Pine produced at the Vyanda plantation would be marketed throughout the country. On the assumption of mid 1979 costs and expected yields per ha for Pine (para 5.07), the following stumpage rates would have to be charged if the discounting rate is 10%: ( Sawlogs - FBu 1,900/mr (average) (US$21.11) ( 3 ( Smallwood - FBu 380/mi (US$4.22) To these basic costs musi be added the cost of logging and transport, estimated at FBu 1,500/m . The delivered wood c2st at a sawmill at the lakeside would thus be approximately FBu 3,500/m . Assuming a 40% r5covery rate from sawlog to sawn timber and saw-milling costs of FBu 3,000/m (sawn), the total cost of one cubic meter sawn timber at millsite would be FBu 8,750 + 3,000 = FBu 11,750. This is considerably more than the current price of FBu 8,000, but would be considerably less than the price qloted for imported Cypress sawn timber from Kenya, which is over FBu 15,000/m (US$167). 7.05 Arrangements for exploitation of the Vyanda Pine plantation have not yet been determined, as it would be premature at this stage. It is probable that it would be undertaken either by a parastatal company esta- blished for the purpose or by private entrepreneurs working under licencing arrangements. Details would be worked out at an appropriate stage, and would depend in large part on the development of future sawmilling capacity to process production; one large Iawmill or several smaller sawmills wity a total capacity of about 215,000 m (roundwood), producing about 86,000 m of sawn timber, would eventually be required. In addition, part of smallwood production may be utilized by a planned particle board factory that may be developed in conjunction with palm oil developments in the Rumonge region. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Government would consult with IDA prior to June 30, 1984 on marketing, processing, and pricing arrangements for the Vyanda plantation Pine production. VIII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION 8.01 The principal direct benefits from the Project would consist of: (i) seedlings (principally Eucalyptus) produced by rural nurseries which would be planted in small communal plantations and farm woodlots to supply  - 36 - fuelwood and building pole requirements of the rural population; an estimated 1,500 ha a year would Ve planted from the third Project year onwards. Assum- ing production of 10 m /ha per annum, each year of operation of the nursery program should meet the fuel wood requirements of about 6,000 rural families; (ii) fuelwood, charcoal and building poleS produced by the Eucalyptus planta- tion: total production of about 30,000 m a year roundwood equivalent would principally supply part of the fuel and building pole requirements of the population of Bujumbura; and (iii) sawn timber and smallwood produced by 3 the Vyanda pine plantation; the estimated future production of about 215,000 m (roundwood) of saw logs would support a future sawmilling industry, while smallwood production would help meet other industrial or rural fuel needs. In addition, the Project's technical assistance and training components would assist in developing effective forest services for Burundi. Further benefits would result if the rural nursery program permitted or encouraged part of the rural population to reduce use of agricultural residues for fuel, as this would enhance soil fertility and possibly reduce erosion; such benefits cannot, however, be readily estimated or quantified. The possible positive impact of the Vyanda pine plantation on the local environment would be an additional benefit from the Project. 8.02 The economic rate of return from all directly productive com- ponents of the Project is estimated at about 20%. Cost of overseas train- ing, studies and trials, and future project preparation were not included in the analysis, as benefits from these activities would accrue principally in future projects and programs. Rates of return were calculated separately for the Eucalyptus and Pine plantations. (a) No separate rate of return was calculated for rural nurseries, because of the difficulty in determining an appropriate value for either the seedlings or eventual fuelwood and pole production. Such production could in theory be valued in terms of the equivalent value of imported goods which would provide alternative sources of energy, but this does not appear real- istic, as costs of such alternatives (notably kerosene) would be prohibi- tively expensive for the rural population. In fact, incremental wood production would probably, at the margin, substitute for agricultural residues as a source of fuel, and the principal benefit would thus be increased crop yields or reduced erosion resulting from greater use of such residues for crops. Tentative analysis of benefits from such substitution of wood for residues suggests that the rate of return for rural fuelwood production would be at least 10%, but the data are so uncertain that these figures were not included in the overall rate of return computation; costs and benefits of rural nurseries were thus excluded from the analysis. (b) The rate of return from the Eucalyptus fuelwood plantation was calculated on the basis of a per hectare model, including all costs of plantation development and maintenance. It would be about 17%. Production was valued at FBu 1,350 (US$15 equivalent) per m roundwood. It was assumed that the economic value of wood utilized for urban consumption was equal to the equivalent value of the principal alternative energy source avail- able to the urban poor, which is kerosene. It was assumed that per capita  - 37 - 3 consumption of wood or charcoal would be equivalent to 1 m of Eucalyptus, and that the alternative would be use of about 75 litres of kerosene a year. Adjustments to take account of cutting costs, charcoal production and mar- keting were made. The rate of return was also calculated using a current markei price for charcoal of about FBu 550 a bag, equivalent to about US$9 per m roundwood. The resulting rate of return would be about 12%. The Project life for the Eucalyptus model was assumed to be 33 years. (c) The economic rate of return for the pine plantation was also calculated on the basis of a per hectare model, and would be about 22% over 26 years. All direct costs were included in the analysis. The economic value of saw log production was assumed to be equivalent to sawn timber imported from Kenya and Tanzania, adjusted to take account of logging, transport, and milling costs. This value is appropriate since there is no alternative source of timber to imports, and substitutes for timber which might be used to meet Burundi's development needs are significantly more costly (metal or fiberglass for examplel. This would imply an economic val e of standing timber of about US$58 per m . If timber were valued at US$15/m , which may be considered a reasonable international cost, the rate of return would be about 11%. 8.03 The economic value of production from the pine planation was adjusted to take into account expected changes in international prices for sawn timber. Foreign exchange costs and benefits were valued at the prevail- ing exchange rate of US$1 = FBu 90 which was assumed to reflect accurately the value of foreign exchange. It was assumed that production of the Pine and Eucalyptus plantations would substitute for imports. Unskilled labor was valued at prevailing market rates, which were assumed to reflect reason- ably accurately the economic value of such labor. These rates of return were tested for sensitivity under a variety of unfavorable assumptions of delays in Project implementation, increases in estimated costs, and reduced yields. The rates of return are most sensitive to reduction in yields and delays in Project implementation, but under all alternative assumptions tested they would still be satisfactory. Economic rate of return calcula- tions are summarized in Table 5. 8.04 The Project does not involve any unusual risks. Delays in Project implementation could result from management difficulties, problems in recruiting staff, or slow deliveries of materials and equipment from over- seas; these delays would, however, not significantly reduce benefits as corresponding expenditures would be slower in consequence. Further, com- pared with most other operations in the rural development and agriculture sector, the Projec't is very simple in design and should require limited reliance on administrative services and farmers' cooperation for support. The principal risk relates to the rural nursery component, which is in potential long term impact the most important Project component. There exists some uncertainty about the willingness of farmers to pay for seedlings and to develop woodlots on a scale sufficient to meet their fuel needs. This component is thus quite experimental in conception. If it does not succeed, financial losses would be small, but it could have serious long-term conse-  - 38 - quences for Burundi in terms of soil fertility and erosion. Another possible risk is that yields would be lower than expected; experience with plantation development in Burundi is limited, and soil conditions in Project areas are not well known. However, experience with comparable forestry development under comparable conditions in neighboring African countries suggests that yield estimates are reasonable, and probably conservative. A further risk is destruction of plantations by fire, but this risk is common to all forestry projects and appropriate provision has been made for fire prevention measures. Finally, there is a minimal risk that Project production might not find a ready market, since demand for wood and wood products has not been demonstrated under Burundi's present situation of acute wood scarcity. This risk seems improbable, however, as projected wood production per capita with this and other projects under way or being planned would be far lower than that indicated by projections for neighboring countries. No practical, inexpensive alternative energy source for the poorer segments of the population has yet been developed and the widespread replacement of wood use with peat, solar energy or any other fuel source in the foreseeable future seems highly improbable. Employment and Income Distribution 8.05 Project investments would have a significant employment impact in the areas concerned, as plantation development would be highly labor intensive. Each rural nursery would employ about 2 persons permanently, and up to 20 laborers at certain periods. The Eucalyptus plantation would employ 120 permanent staff and up to 800 laborers, while the Pine plantation would require about 220 full-time staff and up to 1,500 casual laborers. The total number of permanent jobs created would be about 400 while about 3,000 persons would be employed to meet unskilled labor requirements. The rural nursery program would directly benefit a large number of rural families, most in the lowest income group. The seedlings would enable a total of about 10,000 families to meet their fuel needs adequately from proper wood lots over the five-year Project period, and about 3,000 additional families a year should benefit as long as the nursery program continued. The Eucalyptus plantation would provide fuel supplies at reasonable cost to the poorer segments of Bujumbura's population; if current wood shortages persist, the city's poor would be the principal sufferers. The pine plantation would benefit all segments of Burundi's population, through increased availability of wood for a wide variety of purposes. IX. SUMMARY OF AGREEMENTS REACHED ON LOAN CONDITIONS 9.01 During Negotiations, the following issues were discussed: (a) Terms of Reference for key project staff (para 4.03); (b) Project Implementation Schedule (para 4.09); and (c) Topographic Surveys of Project Areas (5.03).  - 39 - 9.02 During negotiations, assurances were obtained on the following issues: (a) That the Government would establish and maintain a revolving fund (para 3.13); (b) Procurement arrangements for the Project (para 3.14); (c) Accounting and audit procedures for Project investments, (para 3.16); (d) That the Government would submit the terms of reference and qualifications of the Project Manager, the deputy Project manager, the two silviculturists, the three Barundi agronomists and the accountant to IDA for its approval and consult with IDA on their appointment (para 4.03); (e) That the Government would submit an annual report to IDA on the progress of the training program (para 4.03); (f) That the terms of reference for studies to be carried out under the Project be submitted to IDA for approval (para 4.08); (g) That the Government would submit regular half-yearly and annual reports on the Project (4.10); (h) That the Government would prepare a completion report and submit it to IDA not later than six months following the closing date (para 4.11); (i) That detailed planting programs for the Eucalyptus and Pine plantations would be submitted to IDA for approval (para 5.08); (j) That the Government would, to the extent feasible, charge farmers the full cost of seedlings produced by rural nurseries and would consult periodically with IDA on the level of charges (para 6.01); (k) That the Government accepts the principle that charges for forest products should be based on production costs, that a charge system replacing this principle will be introduced gradually, consistent with the need to ensure adequate protection and control of forests, and that the Government and IDA would consult at least once a year on pricing and marketing policies affecting the forestry subsector (para 7.01); (1) That for production resulting from the proposed Project, stumpage rates charged would reflect the full costs of production for plantation development and maintenance (para 7.01);  - 40 - (m) That Government would consult with IDA before June 30, 1984 on marketing and pricing policy for future exploitation of the Eucalyptus produced at the Mageyo plantation (para 7.03); and (n) That the Government would consult with IDA prior to June 30, 1984 on marketing processing and pricing arrangements for the Vyanda Pine production (para 7.05). 9.03 Conditions of Credit effectiveness would be: (a) That appropriate undertakings to finance the Project had been obtained from FAC and UNDP and that an agreement had been signed between IDA and the Government of Burundi concerning administration of the EEC Special Action Credit (para 3.13); (b) Establishment of a revolving fund with at least US$200,000 equivalent balance to ensure that adequate funds were available for Project administration (para 3.13); and (c) Appointment of key Project staff; Project Manager, deputy Project Manager, two Silviculturists and accountant; (para 4.03). 9.04 Subject to the above conditions, the proposed Project would be suitable for an IDA Credit of US$4.3 million to the Government of Burundi on standard IDA terms. April 24, 1979  - 41 - BURUNDI Table/Tableau 1 FORESTRY PROJECT PROJET FORESTIER Ssmary of Project Costs do ro et (UN,, '330) (en ml lliers dceFu) Total Foreign Project Year / Annie do Projet Year/ Exchange/ a AnnSe Devises Project Coponent 1 - 2 3 4 5 1-5 i Elemnts du Prolet 1. Rural Nurseries - Direct Cost 1. PepipiDres rurales - Coats directs Materials 508 847 1,298 1,129 1,129 4,911 90 Materiaux Labor 1,637 2,766 3,669 2,823 2,823 13,718 0 Main d'oeuvre Vehicles and Equipoent 1,355 - - - - 1,355 95 Vibicules ot equipemer-ts Direct Operating Costs 1,694 2,823 3,952 3,952 3,952 16,373 25 Coats directs d'enploitation Sub-Total 5.194 6.436 8,919 7.904 7.904 36.357 27 Total partiel 2. Eucalyptus Plantation 2. Plantations d'eucalyptus - Materials 315 1,356 1,283 1,913 1,948 6,815 90 Materiaux Labor 1,102 3,486 5,182 7,796 8,506 26,072 0 Main d'oeuvre Road Contract 458 1,106 1,679 2,651 2,824 8,718 50 Contrat construceioa routes Vehicles and Equipent 8,694 - 1,355 - - 10,049 95 Vehicules et iquipements Buildings 4,495 5,227 1,568 - - 11,290 30 BItiments Direct Operating Costs 2,603 2,321 2,321 2,321 2,321 11,887 25 CoGts directs d'exploitation Sub-Total 17.667 13.496 13.388 14.681 15,599 74.831 35 Total partial 3. Pins Plantation 3. Plantations des pins Materials 909 3,833 3,009 4,518 4,606 16,875 90 MatEriaux Labor 2,372 6,318 10,952 15,478 17,434 51,654 0 Main d'oeuvre Road Contract 1,145 2,785 4,198 6,488 7,060 21,676 50 Contrat construction routes Vehicles and Equipment 14,226 - 3,645 2,032 - 21,903 95 Vihicules et iquipements Buildings 12,190 14,019 4,276 - - 30,485 30 Maisons et b9tinents Direct Operating Costs 3,952 3,638 3,638 3,638 3,638 18,504 25 Coats directs d'exploitation Sub-Total 34.794 30,593 30.818 32.154 32.738 161.097 38 Total partiel 4. Project Administration and Operation 4. Administration 6 Exploitation du praSet Vehicles and Equipment 2,258 - - - - 2,258 15 Vihicules et iquipements Housing and Buildings 7,904 9,033 2,258 - - 19,195 40 Maisons et bitinnts Wageo and Salaries - Branch Staff 1,129 1,129 1,129 1,129 1,129 5,645 0 Salaires - Personnel succursale Other Operating Costs 794 794 794 794 794 3,970 25 Autres con ts d'exploitation Sub-Total 12.085 10.956 4.181 1.923 1.923 31.068 21 Total partial 5. Technical Assistance 23.760 23.760 23.760 23.760 23.760 118,800 90 c Assistance technicue 6. Training 10,000 10.000 10,000 10,000 10,000 50.000 q0 6. Pormation 7. Studies and Trials 7. Etudes et essais Energy Needs - 2,090 3,140 530 - 5,760 40 Besoins en Enargie Charcoal Kiln - 2,090 3,140 3,140 1,050 9,420 40 Four (charbon de bois) Improved Cooking Equipment - 1,050 2,090 310 - 3,450 50 CuisiniDres diveloppies Monitoring and Evaluation 1,050 3,090 2,090 2,090 2 090 9,410 50 Suivi et evaluatioc Future Project Preparation s - 5,230 5,230 5,230 15,690 50 Preparation projets futurs Sub-Tetal .O050 7,320 15,690 11,300 8,370 43,730 46 Total partiel Total Base Project Costs 104,550 102,56 106,756 10, 7-22 100,294 515,883 53 Total coats de bane du projet Contingencies Inprivus et rivision des prix Physic. a/ 13,572 13,064 13,276 12,843 12,6/3 65,428 Iprivqs physiques a/ Price _ 16,498 28,896 44,535 58,088 72,143 220,160 Prieb_ Sob-Total 30.070 41.960 57,811 70,931 84.816 285.588 Total Project Costs 134.620 144.521 161,567 172.653 185,110 801.471 Toral colts du preeet a/ 15% pour les pipiniires rurales, l'administration du proJet, a! 15% for rural norseries, eucalyptus and pine plantation and project les plantations de pins et d'eucslyptus; 10% pour les autres administration, 107. for other conponents. composantea. b/ Price contingencies based on IBRD/IDA guidelines and nission eati- b/ Provisions pour hausse den prix basies sur les directives de mates a. follovs: la BIRD/IDA et lee estimations do la nission coane suit: Foreign Coors 1979-84 1/ Coats en devises 1979-84 11 Civil Works 7 Travaux de G0im Civil 7 Equipment 6 Equipeenta 6 Technical Assistance 6 Assistance technique 6 Local Costs 10 Coats en monnaie nationale 10 Weighted Average 10.3 Mayenne pondirme 10.3 c/ Year 1 is assumed to begin October 1979, but includes sone project c/ L'onnie 1 cet supposie comsencer activities prior to that date. certainen activites antirieuras a catte date. 1/ 12.31 was used for the 18 montha period fr.. March 1979 to 1/ Pour la piriode ears 1979 - uctobre 1980 October 1980. moy.nne pond6rie utilisni = 12,31 April 30, 1979 Le 30 ovril 1979  - 42 - Table/Tableau 2 BURUNDI FORESTRY PROJECT PROJET FORESTIER Estimated Disbursement Schedule Calendrier estimatif des d6caissements IDA Fiscal Year Cumulative Disbursement at Exercice et and Quarter end Quarter/Decaissements trimestre IDA cumulatifs (uS$'0oo) IDA EEC 1979/80 1979/80 September 30, 1979 30 septembre 1979 December 31, 19791/ - 31 d6cembre 19791/ March 31, 1980 - _ 31 mars 1980 June 30, 1980 60 50 30 juin 1980 1980/81 1980/81 September 30, 1980 120 100 30 septembre 1980 December 31, 1980 250 150 31 d6cembre 1980 March 31, 1981 500 200 31 mars 1981 June 30, 1981 1,200 250 30 juin 1981 1981/82 1981/82 September 30, 1981 1,500 300 30 septembre 1981 December 31, 1981 1,800 400 31 d6cembre 1981 March 31, 1982 2,100 600 31 mars 1982 June 30, 1982 2,400 800 30 juin 1982 1982/83 1982/83 September 30, 1982 2,600 1,000 30 septembre 1982 December 31, 1982 2,800 1,200 31 d6cembre 1982 March 31, 1983 3,100 _ 31 mars 1983 June 30, 1983 3,400 - 30 juin 1983 1983/84 1983/84 September 30, 1983 3,600 - 30 septembre 1983 December 31, 1983 3,800 - 31 d6cembre 1983 March 31, 1984 3,900 _ 31 mars 1984 June 30, 1984 4,000 _ 30 juin 1984 1984/85 1984/85 September 30, 19842/ 4,100 30 septembre 198421 December 31, 1984 4,200 31 decembre 1984 March 31, 19853/ 4,300 31 mars 19853/ June 30, 1985 30 juin 1985 1/ Expected Date of Effectiveness, October 1, 1979/Date pr6vue pour entr6e en vigueur, ler octobre 1979. 2/ Expected Date of Completion, September 30, 1984/Date pr6vue pour achevement du projet, 30 septembre 1984. 3/ Expected Closing Date, March 31, 1985/Date de cl6ture, 31 mars 1985. May 2, 1979 Le 2 mai 1979  BURUNDI FORESTRY PROJECT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE Project Year 0 1 |2 3 5 6 ACTIVITY 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Negotiations __ Effectiveness t Completion Closing PROJECT STAFFING AND MANAGEMENT Selectionand Appointment of Expatriate Personnel U.) National Personnel AFFORESTATION Rural Nurseries. No. of Nurseries I io 0 0 30 io Production (000 plants) 200 600 1000 1200 1200 Eucalyptus Sub-Project - ha planted _U3 400 600 600 300 700 1oo0 1500 1500 Pine Sub-Project - ha planted 40 46 - 0 _ _ t HOUSING AND BUILDINGS-% I 40 ___ VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT -% 75 20 (Procurement) _ TRAINING--m------- ----mm---m STUDIES AND TRIALS Energy Needs g a i ii ii ii Charcoal m m m IIIm moll moll lol loll oil loll Improved Cooking Equipment m mm.jm m u