Yugoslavia - Recent economic developments

Report No. 2623-YU Yugoslavia Recent Economic Developments November 1, 1979 Emena I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Currency Equivalents 1971 1 US Dollar = 14.96 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.067 US Dollar 1972 1 US Dollar = 17.00 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.059 US Dollar 1973 1 US Dollar = 16.19 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.062 US Dollar 1974 1 US Dollar = 15.91 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.063 US Dollar 1975 1 US Dollar = 17.39 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.058 US Dollar 1976 1 US Dollar = 18.19 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.055 US Dollar 1977 1 US Dollar 18.30 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.055 US Dollar 1978 1 US Dollar = 18.64 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.054 US Dollar 1979 (July ) 1 US Dollar = 19.08 Dinars 1 Dinar = 0.052 US Dollar  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY YUGOSLAVIA Recent Economic Developments This report is based on the findings of a mission to Yugoslavia in March 1979 consisting of: Cyrus Ardalan, chief of mission Fredrick Kilby, general economist (young professional) Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Regional Office The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   YUGOSLAVIA: RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Table of Contents Page No. COUNTRY DATA MAP SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................i I. OVERVIEW ................................................. 1 A. The Institutional Setting ............................ 1 B. The Economic Setting ...... ..................... 3 II. ECONOMIC GROWTH ........... ............................... 7 A. Domestic Demand ...................................... 9 B. Output ......... ...................................... 12 C. Demand Management ................ .................... 15 a. Fiscal Policy .................................... 19 b. Monetary Policy ...... ............................ 21 D. Employment ........................................... 25 III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND EXTERNAL DEBT .................... 29 A. Balance of Payments .................................. 29 a. Imports .............................. ........ 31 b. Exports ....... ................................... 33 c. Balance of Payments Policy ................... ... 37 B. External Borrowing and Creditworthiness . ............. 38 a. External Borrowing ... ........................... 38 b. Export Credits Extended by Yugoslavia ............ 43 c. Creditworthiness ... ..... . .... . .............. ... . 43 IV. PROSPECTS ............................ ........................... 45 A. Developments, 1979 .. .................................. 46 a. The Annual Plan Resolution, 1979 ................. 46 b. Economic Trends, 1979 ............................ 47 B. Prospects, 1979-84 . . . ............49 a. Preliminary Targets for the 1981-85 Plan. 52 b. Concluding Remarks . ..... . ... 53 APPENDIX I 56 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 59   DATAiY DA7.A - 21GOtA91 A tII% .^. t. !tT!T. (1978) 85 p.r-on- Vt r q. 66 am .0 a Go 0.n5 (1941 to 1971) . 152 p.reook p.r .9 4. of .1rulc lor.l.nd tjArnt teA STLC8 119783 H0A3.Th 119755 Cted . (P M 3. 7.3tto p-r Pby. l.o 790 foo." bec . (pe I.0O0) 8.7 Pop3 V.,op h-opit.1 b.0 170 tni' leatltty (.r 1.000 It" births) 35.0 01SMOCI08fl1 07Lu 01851 19715 |1 naticeal eSO (19 I qitwillo 6.1 . ead by Cop 107. of ter. o2eb"t nt"il loc - s ^ iftla ".2 > (-i' oa .-t., st *o bit.) Is 5 II -osd by -11..t [OX of -..a. 01..9 (pO'59er. llbolder.) Stewi ~llI.ae .th piped me (36.51) 7.f *II 00Ll.g1.. (19765 89 naruI (1971) s0 nCZ (l97 (5 f tlt_ts) 1> Adu~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9ltCC (1971l l_n S 9 Odolt 1tt-.y -tet. II a Per rJita P 1tale 'stabs 98 ga_ Prtewy 00bol rlI 7t 96 Ratond-y .obo.t .roLt-eat 7 49 GNP . CAI!158 In 1977 US$1960 COMss t. aC MiCS 1 97 IAL Ra8 OP CH 17. onoltont *.3t% as Ki.n. 7 1970.75 1973-77 1977 00 kt l t .te 44.126 100.0 6.6 7.2 77 Total C.a. it0* 31,749 72.0 6.8 7.9 7 1 GZA D_tis Itnmemt 14.01 32.0 5.9 8.9 12.4 are.. ameic arIga 12.377 2$.0 5.7 5.4 9.6 t.qts .1 GOd." WI 7 954 17. 5.7 0.7 -5.2 Imam at CO.. as 11.575 25.. 6 3 49 13.0 01,IN 19176 V.A. P.T Wonter US. x B x llnn g - *nt.oig e 5.35 1. 3.0} 37.0 8 1 715 40.2 InAseN?? ji 13.1~~~20 4.6 5.5 33. 5.093 137.8 Other 13.660 40.2 2.37 29.8 5.755 1MA.8 7.ota1/Arrav 33.903 100.0 7.94 100.0 4,270 100.0 sT fl8w. n..td.. I1977 Cat PsIpt 16.650 Cemn idtere 17.004 Cesient So.iI.. 31 Cg re_t Reipt. *4 .100 31 .7 II. C8 ISAlO w. lb.. epty /(Ood.year porIltinS 82.1 103.4 137.8 214.3 257.2 I.M. , 8 sl7 U II '