India - Inland Fisheries Project

Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Reprt No. P-2655-IN REI1ORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE INLAND FISHERIES PROJECT November 26, 1979 This domths _a wetrled distribudi a"d may be _ed by recIpiets ouly in the ped_wmwn of their ea6cta dStesl. ls caites may et eewle be dloewd without Wol ank a_1orhatin.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENT (As of November 16, 1979) Rs 1.00 = Paise 100 US$1.00 = Rs 8.0382 Rs 1.00 US$0.12441 Rs 1 million = US$124,410 (Since September 24, 1975, the Rupee has been officially valued relative to a "basket" of currencies. As these currencies are now floating, the U.S. Dollar/Rupee ex- change rate is subject to change. Conversions in the Appraisal Report were made at US$1 to Re 8.60, which represents the projected exchange rate over the dis- bursement period). FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT ARDC - Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation GOI - Government of India FSDC - Fish Seed Development Corporation FFDA - Fish Farmer Development Agency CMCC - Central Monitoring and Coordination Committee CPU - Central Project Unit SMCC - State Monitoring and Coordination Committee SPU - State Project Unit  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INDIA INLAND FISHERIES PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiaries: The States of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Amount: US$20 million. Terms: Standard. Relending Terms: GOI to State Governments: Funds for construction of hatchery approach roads, strengthening of Fish Farmer Development Agencies, establishment of extension train- ing centers, and technical assistance will be made available to the project States in accordance with established GOI procedures for development assistance to State governments. GOI to ARD)C: Repayable over 9 years at 6.25% interest per annum for ARDC refinancing not exceeding 9 years; or over 15 years at 6.75% interest per annum for ARDC refinancing from 9 to 15 years; 0.25% interest rebate for timely repayment. Exchange risk to be borne by GOI. ARDC to Banks: Repayable over periods similar to those for ultimate borrowers; interest at 6.5% per annum for lending to small fish farmers, and 7.5% per annum for lending to all other borrowers. Banks to Borrowers: (a) Small Fish Farmers: Repayable over a maximum of 7 years, including up to 2 years of grace, at 9.5% interest per annum; (b) Other Fish Farmers: Repayable over a maximum of 7 years, including up to 2 years of grace, at 10.5% interest per annum; (c) Fish Seed Development Corporations: Repayable over a maximum of 15 years, including up to 5 years of grace, at 10.5% interest per annum. Project Description: The project is designed to increase carp production in five Indian States (West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh) through construction of fish-seed hatcheries, improvements to fish ponds, strengthening of fisheries extension services, This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - 1ii - establishment of training centers, and provision of tech- nical assistance. The project will raise income and living standards for about 100,000 fish farm families, mostly low income members of the rural agricultural community. The main risks are that: (i) Fish Seed Development Corpora- tions may require more time than envisaged to build up managerial competence for successful operation of the project hatcheries; and (ii) during years of extreme water scarcity, sufficient surface water may not be made avail- able to the hatcheries in Madhya Pradesh during critical periods. With regard to the former, a hatchery management consultant will be hired to train new FSDC staff in hatchery operations and provide guidance in the resolution of operational problems. The latter risk has been reduced through the selection by Madhya Pradesh, and approval by IDA, of four hatchery sites that will provide adequate water supplies throughout the year. Estimated Costs: US$ millions Local Foreign Total Hatcheries 9.2 0.3 9.5 Hatchery Approach Roads 3.5 0.1 3.6 Fish-Farmer Development Agencies 4.1 0.3 4.4 Fish Pond Improvements and First Year Inputs 9.2 - 9.2 Training Centers 1.4 0.1 1.5 Technical Assistance 0.4 0.2 0.6 Total Before Contingencies 27.8 1.0 28.8 Contingencies: Physical 3.2 - 3.2 Price 8.5 0.3 8.8 Total Project Cost 39.5 1.3 40.8 Taxes and Duties 1.1 - 1.1 Project Cost Net of Taxes and Duties 38.4 1.3 39.7  - iii - Financing Plan: 1/ US$ millions Local Foreign Total IDA 18.7 1.3 20.0 GOI/States 1.7 - 1.7 ARDC 7.6 - 7.6 Participating Banks 4.2 - 4.2 Borrowers 6.2 - 6.2 38.4 1.3 39.7 Estimated Disbursement: US$ Millions FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 Annual 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.8 9.4 Cumulative 0.4 1.8 4.8 10.6 20.0 Rate of Return: About 42%. Appraisal Report: No. 2496-IN of November 16, 1979. 1/ Excluding taxes and duties.   INTERNAT'IONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA FOR THE INLAND FISHERIES PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to India in an amount equivalent to US$20 million on standard IDA terms to help finance an inland fisheries project in 58 dis- tricts in five States. Aboul US$10.7 million from the credit would be channelled by GOI to the five participating States (West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Ulttar Pradesh) in accordance with GOI's standard terms and arrangements for financing State development projects. About US$9.3 million from the credit would be made available by GOI to the Agri- cultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC). ARDC would onlend these funds to participating banks for financing fish hatchery construction and fish pond improvements. 'ART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (2431-IN dated April 9, 1979), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 13, 1979. Country dlata sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is a large, low-income country with 640 million people whose average income is US$150 per annum. The agricultural sector dominates the economy, employing over two-thirds of the labor force and contributing over 40% of value added. Althoug'h smallholder agriculture provides a fullsome subsistence to many, the land base is inadequate to provide all families in rural areas with an adequate livelihood under current conditions, and many who are landless or nearly landless have only an insecure grasp on the means of existence. Industrialization in India has not been rapid enough to bring about the economic transformation that has led to higher productivity and rapid urbanization in some other countries. The urban population was 18% of the total in 1960, 20% in 1970 and is 21% now. The share of manufacturing has grown slowly and since the late 1960s has remained roughly constant at 16% of GDP. 4. Economic growth has been slow in the past, with GDP growing at a trend rate of 3.6% per annum from 1950 to 1975. Agricultural output grew at 2.4% per arnum over the same period. Slow growth in agriculture acted as a 1/ Parts I and II of the report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report for the Second Maharashtra Irrigation Project (Report No. P-2624-IN), dated September 26, 1979.  -2- drag on overall growth, not only because of its sheer weight in the total, but also because of the need to use scarce foreign exchange to import food. Growth in industrial output has been higher at 5.2% per annum between 1950 and 1975, but not as high as in many other developing countries nor as high as can be expected. 5. This slow growth has persisted despite a quite creditable domestic saving and investment performance. Domestic saving has grown from 9% of GDP in 1951 to the current high level of 22%. Gross domestic investment has risen from 10% to 21% of GDP over the same period. Foreign savings have never financed a large portion of domestic investment and have financed no more than 5% of investment since 1970. Foreign savings have been important in financing imports, and a shortage of foreign exchange has acted as a constraint on the economy for most of the period. External assistance has been low both as a percentage of GDP and in per capita terms. Net external assistance is less than 2% of GDP now, has never risen above 3% and fell to less than 1% in the early 1970s. Exports have grown relatively slowly--5.4% per annum in US dollar terms and 2.8% per annum in volume terms between 1950/51 and 1975/76. So far during the 1970s, exports have grown much more rapidly, by 18% per annum in US dollar terms and 8% in volume terms over the period 1970/71 to 1976/77. During the same period imports grew by 17% per annum in US dollar terms but only by 2% per annum in volume terms, reflecting a 28% fall in India's terms of trade over the period. 6. India has the capacity to grow and develop at a more rapid pace than has been achieved so far. Although the industrial sector is small compared to the size of the total economy, it nevertheless has a highly diversified struc- ture and is capable of manufacturing a wide variety of consumer and capital goods. Basic infrastructure--irrigation, railways, telecommunications, roads and ports--is extensive compared to many countries, although considerable gaps remain. India is rich in human resources and institutional infrastruc- ture, although there is much scope for improvement. India is reasonably well-supplied with natural resources, not only land and water but minerals, including oil, gas and coal. With good economic policies and sufficient access to foreign savings, India should be able to manage these considerable resources to accelerate the longer-term growth trend. Recent Trends 7. India has managed faster growth during the recent past. Growth of GDP in 1978/79 is estimated to be between 3% and 4%; this is a strong perform- ance coming on top of the previous year's 7.2% growth in GDP and considering agricultural output grew less than 2%. Even this agricultural growth is highly creditable given the previous years' record harvests in most crops. Industrial output grew by 8-10% in 1978/79. Over the four years, 1975/76 to 1978/79, growth in real GDP, agricultural output and industrial output has averaged 5.3%, 4.4% and 6.9% per annum, respectively. Although these rates represent growth over the depressed base of the early 1970s, they are signi- ficantly higher than the longer-term past trend and comparable to the target growth rates for the medium-term future. Buoyant domestic demand, upward adjustment of depressed agriculture prices and world inflation have led to  significant increases in prices during the first half of 1979. The wholesale price index increased by 16% between mid February and September. Together, food, food products, crude petroleum and mineral oils contributed over two- thirds of this increase. Hourever, prices of almost all commodities have moved up s:gnificantly during the first months of 1979/80. Although in part reflecting a seasonal rise irt food and food products, the trends observed do indicate a distinct departure from the relative price stability of the past four years. The inflationary trend is likely to continue during the second half of 1979/80, although at a slower rate, given the July 1979 price in- creases in oil, steel and coal and continuing world inflation. Although the current inflationary pressures need not seriously impair medium-term growth prospects, given available aggregate resources and production capacity, sig- nificant improvements are likely to be required in the organization of key sectors if an economic slowdown is to be avoided. 8. The 1978/79 foodgrain crop exceeded the 1977/78 record crop of 126 million tons, and many non-food crops did well. The 1978 monsoon rains were timely and adequate, although severe flooding in some areas destroyed both lives and property and ruined some crops. The basic inputs into agricultural production continued their rapid growth of the recent past. Additions to area under irrigation have doubled from 1.3 million hectares a year during the five-year period ending 1973/74 to 2.6 million hectares a year during 1977/78 and 1978/79. Fertilizer consumption in 1978/79 reached 5 million nutrient tons, an increase of 18% over 1977/78. This growth is impressive, particularly since it follows two successive years of very high growth--18% .in 1976/77 and 26% in 1977/78--so that tertilizer consumption is now 75% higher than it was in 1975/76. However, prospects for sustaining the record crop levels of the past two years in 1979/80 do not look good. The onset of the monsoon was delayed this year and subsequent rainfall has been defi- cient throughout much of the country. Early indicators are that jute, rice and sugar cane output have already been adversely affected. Continuing power cutbacks and recent shortages in diesel fuel for irrigation pumps are also likely to contribute to the shortfall. 9. Tle growth of industrial output in 1978/79 came from a sharp rise in the output of food industries, particularly sugar, a modest increase in textiles, important increases in the hitherto depressed engineering sector and the revival of demand for consumer durables. Production would have been still higher but for recurring shortages of steel, coal, railway wagons and electric power and capacity constraints in fertilizer, cement, vegetable oils and petroleum products. Labor unrest also constrained output in some indus- tries, particularly in textiles, steel and mining; man-days lost in 1978 ex- ceeded the high level of 1977 and only in 1974 were the number of days lost higher. Power production increased by 12% but continuing shortages in many States necessitated power cuts and curbs on new demand. During the first quarter of 1979/80 supply bottlenecks in basic industrial inputs began to retard overall industrial production. In addition to coal and steel, cement, sugar, cotton textile and cotton yarn output fell below last year's levels. Strong demand has continued to sustain other important industries such as fertilizers and chemicals, but it appears increasingly unlikely that these can counterbalance the constrained sectors.  -4- 10. The trade deficit grew and both the current account surplus and the balance of payments surplus of recent years shrank in 1978/79. The import bill is expected to reach US$8.4 billion, which brings the average rate of increase in US dollar terms to 19% per annum since 1976/77. Non-foodgrain imports rose even more dramatically by 28% per annum over the past two years. The growth of imports and the liberalization of import control policies represents a desirable adjustment to enhanced foreign resources. Although exports grew much faster during the 1970s through 1976/77 than earlier, export growth in 1977/78 and 1978/79 has slowed somewhat. After rising by 12% in 1975/76 and 23% in 1976/77 in US dollar terms (virtually all growth in export volume), export earnings rose by only 9% in 1977/78 (with little or no volume growth) and an estimated 8% in 1978/79 (with 5-8% volume growth). Although part of the decline is attributable to unfavorable conditions in foreign markets, export profitability has been allowed to deteriorate somewhat. With net invisible receipts in 1978/79 estimated the same as in 1977/78--US$2 billion-- the widened trade deficit resulted in a significantly reduced current account surplus, from US$1 billion in 1977/78 to US$400 million in 1978/79. Despite some increase in net aid disbursements from their low level in 1977/78, the increase in reserves declined from about US$2 billion in 1977/78 to about US$1.5 billion in 1978/79 to reach US$7.4 billion. Exports during the first three months of this fiscal year are 32% higher than the same quarter of last year. Although part of the increase is due to the dollar depreciation and recovery in coffee prices, the prospects of sustaining a volume growth of at least 7% during 1979/80 appear good. Imports in the first quarter of 1979/80 are around 7% higher than the same period of the previous year. How- ever, the impact of recent increases in petroleum prices are only partially reflected in this figure. India's total POL import bill for 1979/80 is likely to reach $3.2 billion, $800 million higher than earlier estimates. As a result, there should be a sharp deceleration in the rate of growth of reserves sufficient to significantly reduce the number of months of imports covered by reserves during 1980. Development Prospects 11. The circumstances that have brought about the currently favorable economic situation hold the promise of continuing into the future given conti- nued policy improvements. The faster growth of the recent past has been made possible by the much-increased inward flow of foreign exchange from increased exports, workers' remittances and external assistance; greatly improved agri- cultural performance; the impressive saving effort; the liberalization of import controls; and expanded public expenditure on development programs. Although sustaining the high growth rates of the recent past into the future is by no means automatically assured, India has a level of resources with which to manage the economy that had never existed before. The comfortable foreign exchange position, the large foodgrain stocks and the absence of strong inflationary pressures have eased the pressures to deal with short- term crises and freed India's economic managers to plot a more ambitious course for the economy. The policy improvements needed to achieve the better performance now possible have begun in some important areas but in others have yet to be initiated.  -5- 12. The Draft Plan, which was released in March 1978 and is expected to be finalized and approved by the National Development Council early next year, sets out India's development strategy for the five years 1978/79 to 1982/83. The principal objectives of the Draft Plan are to achieve within a period of ten years: (i) the removal of unemployment and significant underemployment, (ii) an appreciable rise in the standard of living of the poorest sections of the population, and (iii) provision by the Government of some of the basic needs of the people in these low-income groups. While the Plan recognizes the importance of achieving more rapid expansion of the economy than in the past to meet the employment and welfare objectives, the targeted rate of growth at 4.7% per annum is lower than projected in most earlier Plans. According to the planners, this reflects in part the increased emphasis given to the distribution rather than the level of income generation, and in part the need for greater realism in the macro-economic assumptions underlying the Plan. While the trade-off between growth and distribution is not immediately obvious from the Plan model, the adoption of a more realistic growth target is in itself well justified -- even at 4.7% per annum, the targeted growth rate is higher than actually achieved during any of the previous Plan periods, and is substantially above the longer-term trend growth rate. 13. In agriculture, the economic policies, development programs and secular trends all seem favorable for a period of sustained high growth. Fertilizer prices have been reduced progressively from their very high level in early 1975 and despite some fall in market foodgrain prices, the fertilizer: foodgrain price ratio has fallen to a clearly profitable range. Good harvests and higher farm incomes provide the money to finance higher fertilizer pur- chases, creating something of a virtuous circle. Pricing policies for many crops--rice, wheat, sugarcane, pulses and others--have concentrated recently on supporting prices to maintain incentives to farmers rather than trying to administratively control prices to contain inflation. The ambitious irrigation and rural electrification investment program in the new Five-Year Plan, if fully funded, will help provide the water control needed to increase yields directly and to induce further productivity-increasing investments. The effective reorganization of the agricultural extension service will raise yields as it takes hold gradually across India. Finally, there are several heartening trends in foodgrain production: one is the steady growth of area planted to high-yielding varieties of rice; another is the growing adoption of summer rice cultivation in the traditional wheat-producing areas (Punjab and Haryana). These two trends along with the other favorable developments have caused rice production to rise impressively in the last two years. Another good omen for foodgrain production is the rapid growth of winter wheat cropping in traditional rice areas (West Bengal, Assam and Orissa). 14. In industry, despite some uncertainty in industrial policy and the lack of strong policy stimulus to improve efficiency in the industrial structure, recently strengthened demand forces along with adroit input supply management should allow the industrial sector to continue to grow at the improved rate of the recent past, at least for the near- and medium-term future. Over the longer term, growth of industrial production at or above the rate experienced in the recent past--e.g., 7% per annum during the last four years--will require some changes in policy to induce a more efficient  - 6 - industrial structure. Recent industrial policies have sent mixed signals to private manufactures and investors. Some, such as reserving certain lines of production for small-scale enterprises or prohibiting the location of new firms in municipal areas, have been restrictive. Others have been stimula- tive, such as the raising of the exemption limit of industrial licensing for capital investment or favorable adjustments in the pricing and production controls in several major industries, including cement, steel, and textiles. In addition the liberalization of import controls is of considerable benefit to increasing industrial production. However, there are some worrisome supply shortages that are currently threatening continued rapid industrial growth. Many can be handled through imports, if needed, as long as India maintains a healthy foreign exchange position. However, two supply constraints likely to persist in the future -- namely, rail transport and power -- cannot be eased through imports. The new Plan contains a major power investment program to increase capacity rapidly. The railway investment program is more modest. Another crucial input into both of these sectors, and into most other major sectors, is coal, whose supply needs careful management. 15. The main reason for expecting sustained growth in industrial pro- duction is improvement in demand prospects for each of the four major sources of industrial demand. The first is market demand for manufactured consumption goods, which is expected to pick up in response to the increase in disposable income due in particular to the good agricultural harvests. Although its effect has been delayed somewhat, this broad-based demand is finally making itself felt and is expected to continue into the future as long as the growth in agricultural output continues. Another source of demand is public expendi- ture on development projects, which has grown in a major way in the last few years and is scheduled to continue to grow under the new Five-Year Plan. A third source of growth is export demand for industrial goods. There has been a sustained growth in the export of manufactures such as engineering goods, garments, gems, finished leather and some chemical products. This export growth should continue in the future with proper policy support. A final source of growing demand is private investment by both the household and corporate sectors. There are as yet only a few signs of this growth, such as increased disbursement by term lending institutions and increased use of inputs; investments should become stronger as growth in the other sources of demand continues and as capacity limitations begin to constrain production in more industries. The net result of increasing demand should be continued high growth in industrial production in the near and medium term within existing policies. 16. Import policy is an area where there has been significant improve- ment in the recent past; but some improvement in export policy is required to raise incentives to export. India has liberalized import control policy significantly in the past two years and imports have responded. Future growth in imports, and in the benefits of price stability, enhanced production and increased efficiency which imports bring, will depend to a great extent on how the now liberalized policy is administered. A delicate touch is required to yield the benefits without bringing about undesirable damage to vulnerable industries. India has the foreign resources to allow imports to grow at the rapid rates of the past two years for a few more years and continue to relax  - 7 - the very severe restraints imposed on the economy during the early 1970s by suppression of imports. But, given the import liberalization undertaken so far and the expected growth of imports, by the end of the Plan period (1982/83), foreign exr' ange reserves will have fallen to six months of imports, or less, and some istment in the balance of payments will be required. Part of the adjustment will very likely be a reduction in the growth rate of imports; the import bill need not grow 15% in volume terms indefinitely to sustain the target growth in GDP. Part of the adjustment must come from the achievement of a growth rate of exports in the vicinity of 7-8% or higher in volume terms. Faster export growth is needed not only to provide the foreign exchange to sustain the rapid growth in imports but also to allow foreign demand and competition to improve the efficiency of Indian industry. Finally, part of the adjustment should come from an increased net transfer of external assistance 17. [ndia's population policy continues to aim at reducing the birth rate to 33 births per thousand people by 1983 through completely voluntary acceptance of fertility control methods supplied by a family welfare system integrated with the supply of basic health, maternal and child health and nutrition services. Since 1977, the family planning achievements in terms of number of acceptors have been below that needed to achieve the 1983 goal or even to keep the birth rate from rising above its current level. The low performance is primarily the result of the reaction to the harsh birth control policies introduced during 1976. Since then family planning perform- ance has been gradually returning to the rising trend which was discernible before it was disrupted by the intensive drive of 1976/77. Given continued support for the program of family welfare, India's rate of population in- crease should remain below 2% per annum and fall to 1.5% by 1990. 18. In addition to stimulating overall economic growth and constraining population growth, reduction of poverty in India requires special attention to ways of raising the income and productivity of low-income groups. More than one-third of the world's poor live in India and more than 80% of the Indian poor belong to the rural households of lnndless laborers and small farmers. The prospects for alleviating their p_ rty by providing these families with more land are not good because of the virtual absence of un- cultivated arable land, the slow progress in implementing land reform and the limited amount of land that would be available if land reform were carried out. Estimates of the amount of land that would be available if land reform were carried out vary greatly. One estimate it, that these would be about 9 million hectares available for distribution. This compares to roughly 45 million families in the two poorest groups in rural India: landless families and families owning less than one hectare of land, whose average holding is 0.31 hectares. An approach to the amelioration of poverty more promising than land reform is the creation of more employment opportunities for the landless and small farmers in rural areas. Although the basic thrust must come from the market by a more rapidly increasing agricultural output, there will be a role for employment-intensive rural works programs. The new Plan provides for increased rural employment both through direct employment schemes and through ambitious programs of investment in rural infrastructure in addition to the more general rural development programs.  -8- PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 19. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 57 loans and 117 development credits to India totalling US$2,530 million and US$7,235 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$1,014 million had been repaid, and US$3,093 million was still undisbursed as of September 30, 1979. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of September 30, 1979, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 20. Since 1957, IFC has made 17 commitments in India totalling US$64.0 million, of which US$17.0 million has been repaid, US$7.6 million sold and US$6.9 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$32.5 million, US$24.5 mil- lion represents loans and US$8.0 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of September 30, 1979, is also included in Annex II (page 5). 21. In recent years, the emphasis of Bank Group lending has been on agriculture. The Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit opera- tions. Major irrigation, marketing, seed development, and dairying are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterprises. IDA financing of industrial raw materials and components for selected priority sectors has been instrume_ptal in facilitating better capacity utilization in industry. The Bank Group has also been active in supporting infrastructure development for power, telecommunications, and railways. Family planning, water supply development, and urban investments have also received Bank Group support in recent years. 22. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, industry, power, urban development and water supply remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs such as credit for on-farm investments, improved water management and intensification and stream- lining of extension systems, form an important aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to pro- jects benefitting small farmers. Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, and urban development also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infra- structure and industrial investments will focus on agriculture-, export- and energy-related projects. 23. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of the development of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic reports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in large part to the response of the aid community, India has success- fully adjusted to the changed world price situation. However, the basic need for foreign assistance, to augment domestic resources, stimulate investment  -9- and accelerate economic growth, remains. As in the past, Bank Group assist- ance for projects in India should include, as appropriate, the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity and competitiveness of the domestic capital goods industry. Con- sequently, the foreign exchange component tends to be small in most projects. This is particularly the case in such high-priority sectors as agriculture, irrigation, rural water supply and medium- and small-scale industry. 24. Although the growth prospects of the economy have improved, India's poverty and needs are such that as much as possible of India's external capi- tal requirements should be provided on concessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support, and India may be regarded as creditworthy for some supplemental Bank lending. The ratio of India's debt service to the level of exports was 12% in 1978/79 and is projected to remain below 20% through 1995/96. As of September 30, 1979, outstanding loans to India totaled US$1,548 million, of which US$639 million remained to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstand- ing of US$909 million. 25. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with an estimated 62%, 27% and 38%, respectively, in 1978/79. On March 31, 1979, India's outstanding external public debt was US$20.6 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was US$8.1 billion, or 39% (IDA's US$6.7 billion, and IBRD's US$1.4 billion). Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1977/78, about 16% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group. PART III - THE INLAND FISHERIES SECTOR Background 26. Fish production is becoming an increasingly important element in the Indian economy. Although at present it accounts for only about 1-1/2% of the value of all agricultural production, the 7% annual growth rate in fish consumption over the last 10 years reflects the high income elasticity and the increased urban demand for fish. A recent study indicates that fish is consumed in 88% of the households in Calcutta, 59% in Bangalore, and 45% in New Delhi. Per capita consumption in these cities is about two to three times the national average of 4 kg, which itself is about one-third of the nutritional level requirement estimated by GOI. 27. Fish has traditionally been produced by the poorest segment of the work force. It is also one of the cheapest sources of animal protein, and is the only source available to many of the households in the lower income  - 10 - groups. In addition, as a result of changing dietary habits, many non- vegetarians are recognizing the value of fish as a source of animal protein. Even in vegetarian households, fish is sometimes an acceptable non-vegetable item of diet. 28. Fisheries development in recent years has concentrated mainly upon marine fisheries. In 1977, marine fisheries accounted for about 65% (1.7 million tons) of India's total fish production of 2.6 million tons. A sig- nificant portion (currently about 12%) of the marine fisheries production, consisting of shrimp, crab and lobster, is exported; India is presently the world's largest exporter of shrimp. However, GOI has begun to attach high priority to the development of inland fisheries, primarily as a means of raising the productivity and income of a disadvantaged segment of the popu- lation, and of providing a source of high quality animal protein. Inland fisheries have an advantage over marine fisheries on account of their acces- sibility to many of the large inland population centers. In addition, marketing of inland fish production does not necessitate extensive changes to the transportation infrastructure. For people distant from marine fishery centers, inland fisheries are often the only source of fish available. 29. Inland fisheries consist of two types of activities -- capture fish- eries and fish farming. Capture. fisheries are presently far more extensive than fish farming, accounting for about 90% of the total production from the inland fisheries sub-sector. Capture fisheries, carried out mostly in the major rivers, lakes and reservoirs throughout India, involve the seining and gill-netting of several species of carp, catfish and miscellaneous fish in fresh waters, and hilsa and mullet in brackish waters. Over the past ten years, inland capture fisheries production has not quite kept pace with total fish production, growing at an average annual rate of about 6%, compared to 7% for total fish production and 8% for marine fish production. The future of capture fisheries does not appear promising. The fish habitat has dete- riorated considerably in recent years due to the proliferation of water control structures, industrial water use, and extensive overfishing in many of the traditional grounds where the most important commercial fresh-water fish species are harvested. Consequently, India has begun to look to fish farming as the main source for future increases in inland fish production. 30. India is fortunate to have a large and well-organized body of highly competent aquacultural scientists who have achieved major break-throughs in several important technical aspects of fish culture. The most important of these is the refinement of the techniques for the reproduction, through induced breeding, of the main commercial carp species. Induced breeding techniques, using simple hatcheries, have made possible the production of large quantities of high quality carp seed on demand, thus providing a founda- tion for modern carp farming. In addition, with induced breeding, the spawn- ing period of Asiatic carp can be extended to about six months (March through August), compared to the two-month natural spawning season (June and July). Large-scale research on fish pond improvement has also developed what is now called "composite fish culture", using several species grown in combina- tion to optimize fish pond productivity. The development of induced breeding techniques has made possible the optimum combination of desirable species, so  that fish pond productive potentials can be exploited more fully, and high yields of the most financially attractive mixture of carp species produced. 31. The various species of carp appear to be most suitable for fish farming in India. They are by far the most preferred of the table fish species from inland waters among Indian consumers, who are willing to pay a high premium for the larger species of fish. Moreover, they are the only species of commercial and economic importance that Indian fish farmers are familiar with, and are readily willing to farm. Farming Practices 32. The area of fish ponds under carp culture in India currently totals about 450,000 ha. As a source of carp supply, fish farming is now nearly as important as capture fisheries and provides about 40% of the total annual carp production of about 290,000 tons. While fish farming is practised throughout India, it is predominant in the States of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. In 1977, these States accounted for some 100,000 tons of the total cultured carp production of 110,000 tons, and about 70% of t-he total water area for cultured fish ponds of 10 ha or less. The main species farmed are, in order of importance, catla, mrigal, and rohu (all Indian major carp), and common carp. Some 500,000 households are engaged in fish farming; typically each of these manages a small pond less than 1 ha in size. 33. Fish farming in India presently depends mainly on riverine collec- tion of spawn and fingerlings. As with capture fisheries, their availability in some regions has been severely reduced by river habitat deterioration. In addition, wild spawn and fingerling collections are highly variable from year to year and are of progressively lower quality; on the average about 40% consists of low-value fish and predators. Consequently the growth in both area and productivity of cultured fish ponds is severely constrained by the lack of high quality fish seed. 34. Most fish ponds in India are owned by government agencies or village panchayats; private ownership is limited mostly to the States of West Bengal, Bihar and Orissa. About 94% of the fish ponds in West Bengal, and about 40% in Bihar and Orissa, are privately owned. Private ponds are usually owner- operated, and individual fish farmers may operate several ponds. Government- owned fish ponds are commonly leased for a period of one or two years to private individuals or cooperative societies through public bidding or nego- tiation. Using traditional fish farming practices, farmers stock their ponds with a mixed fish seed which includes several species of Indian carp. Stocking is carried out in June and July, after the natural riverine spawning which follows the first monsoon rains. Marketable fish are then harvested during the following March and April when pond water levels are relatively low. The seed is frequent:Ly of poor quality, and the supply inadequate. Consequently, yields are low, averaging about 350 kg per hectare. It is generally agreed that present leasing patterns for public water bodies are a disincentive to private investment and -- together with the lack of quality  - 12 - fish seed, inadequacy of credit for fish pond improvement and fish seed, and the low use of inputs such as fertilizer and feed -- are a serious constraint on the development of fish farming in India. State Fishery Departments 35. State Fishery Departments (SFDs) in each State are responsible for fish culture extension services, the operation of fish seed farms, the devel- opment of fisheries cooperatives, and fisheries research efforts. In addition to these responsibilities, SFDs also operate a variety of training programs for farmers and youths as part of their extension programs, necessary for the rapid development of fish culture. A recent review of the State fish farming development programs under the Fifth Five-Year Plan has also emphasized the need for increased SFD involvement in development activities, particularly in encouraging the expanded coverage of Fish Farmer Development Agencies (see paragraph 36) to more districts, establishing carp hatcheries to increase fish seed production, and developing and maintaining fisheries reservoir management programs. Fish Farmer Development Agencies 36. Since 1973, GOI has funded the establishment of Fish Farmer Development Agencies (FFDAs) at the district level in various States, with the objective of increasing carp production, raising fish farmers' incomes and creating employment for the landless in rural areas. To date, some 50 FFDAs, based on a pattern similar to the Small Farmer Development Agencies, have been established to provide a field 'mechanism for coordinating the agencies involved at the State level, and to integrate the various activities connected with fish farming development throughout the country. At the field level, FFDAs help to arrange fish pond leases between government bodies and private individuals or cooperatives, promote fish farming, popularize improved techniques, provide training and extension services, assist in arranging financing, and organize fish farmer cooperatives.. FFDAs also provide a 25% subsidy to selected fish farmers for fish pond improvements and first-year inputs to help encourage expansion of fish farming and adoption of improved practices. FFDA staff are generally drawn from State Fishery Departments and coordinate closely with Fishery Departments on their activities. In districts where they operate, FFDAs take over most extension responsibilities from the State Fishery Departments, provide short-term training courses, help secure fish seed, and administer credit for fish pond production expenses. FFDA field operations have been underway for about six years, and experience to date indicates that the FFDA pattern of organization can provide an effective vehicle to promote fish farming development. Marketing 37. About 70% of the carp produced is transferred to the larger towns and cities in India through well organized marketing channels. In general, catches from adjacent areas are aggregated and shipped via local land trans- port to large city markets such as Calcutta for sale to wholesale traders and retailers. The remaining 30% of the carp production is sold locally by the  - 13 - producers or to retailers or peddlers in small towns and in rural areas. Present commercial channels appear adequate to handle the anticipated growth in carp supply. Fish Consumption and Prices 38. In recent years, retail carp prices have been relatively strong compared to the prices of other fish varieties. Pond-side prices for carp in 1978 averaged about Rs 4.00 (US$0.47) per kg, compared to Rs 3.50 (US$0.41) per kg in 1977. In view of the relatively high elasticity of demand for carp, it is considered that a 10% annual increase in carp supply could be absorbed by the market with no adverse impact on current price levels. Furthermore, while carp is generally preferred by consumers, greater supplies of carp should free more of the less expensive species of fish for low-income con- sumers. An increase in carp supplies of 10% annually would call for a total supply of about 750,000 tons by 1987. Since capture fishery resources for carp are essentially fully exploited and in fact show signs of declining, most of the increase, some 460,000 additional tons, would have to come from fish culture. The project would contribute towards this end by providing an increase in carp production of about 200,000 tons at full development in 1986. Training 39. Most fishery traini.ng in India is provided by the Central Institute for Fishery Education (CIFE) in Bombay. CIFE was established in 1961 under the GOI Department of Agriculture and Rural Development to train government fishery officers for service in various States. Its program includes training in technical skills for implementing both inland and marine fisheries devel- opment projects. The Institute has a staff of about 200, and provides two-year post-graduate fishery science courses for about 40 students a year. To date, about 400 students have been trained by CIFE. CIFE also maintains ancillary training institutions in West. Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh which provide shorter courses at a lower level than those conducted by the Institute, in subjects such as inland fisheries development and administration, and fish farming practices. Specialized in-service training at the post-graduate level is also provided by these institutions in extension techniques and methods. Research 40. Inland fishery research is primarily undertaken by the Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute (CIFRI), which has its headquarters in West Bengal. CIFRI, consisting of several central substations and 11 research units, was established in 1947, but has since become a unit of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research. CIFRI's objective is to maximize inland fish production through the application of scientific techniques. Research carried out by this institution, particularly that connected with the induced breeding of carp species to extend the spawning period (see para 30), has made a major contribution to fish culture development in India and has provided the technological basis for future fish farm development in the country, including the proposed project. Almost all of the scientific staff connected with fresh-water fisheries are or have been involved with the work of CIFRI.  - 14 - Potential for Carp Culture 41. India has all the prerequisites for the rapid development of fish farming. It has 1.6 million hectares of water bodies potentially suitable for intensive fish farming, and a large number of fish farmers experienced in fish farm management. It also has a large number of aquacultural scientists and technicians specialized in the artificial production of carp seed to support a well planned program of research and development activities. In addition, a large market exists for carp, as well as a clear need for supplying additional protein to a large population. 42. At present, only about 450,000 out of the estimated 1.6 million hectares of potentially suitable water bodies are used for fish farming. Provided appropriate measures are taken, particularly with respect to tenurial practices, roughly 1.2 million hectares presently remaining unused can be brought under fish farming over the next 10 to 20 years. In addition, with good pond management and adequate supplies of high quality seed and complementary inputs, it appears that a high level of average yields can be achieved for both the existing fish ponds and the new ponds to be brought under culture, raising yields from an estimated annual average of 350 kg per hectare at present to over 1,200 kg per hectare during the coming decade. This increase in productivity and expansion of fish pond areas can be accom- plished through the application of the well known and proven technology already practised in some parts of India, and in West Bengal in particular. Constraints to Fish Farm Development 43. Four principal constraints limit the rapid development of carp farming in India: (i) a shortage of carp seed in general, and of high quality seed in particular; (ii) fish pond tenurial arrangements, which generally permit only short-term leases and thus discourage farmers from making long-term commitments and investments for improvement of fish ponds; (iii) inadequacy of extension services at the farm level, to guide farmers in improving water level control and optimizing the practices of stocking and applying fertilizer and supplementary feed inputs; (iv) lack of long-term credit for fish pond improvements, and short-term credit for fish seed, fertilizer and supplementary inputs. The proposed project is designed to help to remove these constraints in the five main inland fishery States of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Bank Group Operations in the Sector 44. This is the first inland fisheries project in India, although there have been two marine fisheries projects to date -- the Gujarat Fisheries Project (Loan 1394T-IN/Credit 695-IN), which became effective on July 19, 1977, and the Andhra Pradesh Fisheries Project (Credit 815-IN), which became effective on October 31, 1978. The Gujarat Fisheries Project, for which a Bank loan of US$14 million and an IDA credit of US$4 million were made, provides for the improvement of the two major fishing harbors in the State of Gujarat, basic infrastructure for eight fishing villages, credit to fish- ermen, cooperatives and entrepreneurs through ARDC refinancing, and technical assistance for test fishing operations and a fish marketing study. Progress  - 15 - of project implementation was slow initially because of delays in the hiring of staff. This problem has now been resolved and work on the harbors at both Mangrol and Veraval is under way. The Andhra Pradesh Fisheries project, for which an IDA credit of US$17.5 million was made, provides for the expansion of harbor and shore facilities at three ports, the expansion of the mechanized fishing fleet, and the provision of village access roads and water supply in three leading fishing districts in the State. Harbor works at Visakhapatnam and Kakinada are scheduled to commence shortly. The project is proceeding satisfactorily and no delays in its implementation are expected. PART IV - THE PROJECT 45. The Inland Fisheries project was prepared by the Government of India and the State Governments of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, with assistance from Bank Group staff. An FAO/IBRD Cooper- ative Program mission which visited India in 1975 first stimulated interest in inland fisheries, and the findings of a subsequent IDA inland fisheries sub-sector mission in February, 1978, provided a framework for project formu- lation. The project was appraised in January/February 1979; Staff Appraisal Report No. 2496-IN, dated November 16, 1979, is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations were held in Washington, in October 1979. The Government of India was represented by a delegation with Mr. J.K. Sibal, Director, Department of Economic Affairs, as coordinator. A Supple- mentary Project Data Sheet is attached as Annex III. Project Objectives and Description 46. The project will assist GOI and the five participating States of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, in their efforts to implement fish farming development programs. The project's objectives are to: (i) increase cultured carp production in the participating States; and (ii) provide a basis for the future commercial development of the carp seed industry, essential for the increased production of inland fish. 47. The project covers 58 districts in the five participating States, and includes about 117,000 ha of a total of about 258,000 ha of fish ponds of 5 hectares or less in size. About 27 modern carp hatcheries will be con- structed in the project districts to produce the fish seed required by farms in the project area. Approach roads will be constructed to link the hatcheries with existing road and rail communications. Fish ponds in the project area will be improved. New fisheries training centers will be established in the States of West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, and an existing center in Madhya Pradesh will be strengthened with additional civil works, equipment and vehicles. Following is a brief description of the main project components. (a) Carp Hatcheries 48. The carp hatcheries to be constructed in the project area will produce the high quality fish seed required by the fish farmers for stocking  - 16 - their ponds. The availability of this seed will help to ease the shortage of high-quality fish seed, which is one of the major constraints to increased fish farm production. 49. Hatcheries with pond water areas ranging from about 10 to 30 ha will be provided; the concentration of fish ponds in a particular area will help to determine the size of the project hatcheries required. Construction of the hatcheries will be under the supervision of State-owned Fish Seed Development Corporations (see para 54), which will also own the hatcheries and operate them commercially. 50. The hatcheries will be of a conventional design and will comprise an indoor hatchery unit, ponds, watergates, channels, tubewells, administra- tive and storage buildings, staff residences, fencing and internal roads. Each hatchery complex will have facilities for artificial spawning of carp, egg hatching, husbanding of brood stock, and rearing of carp fingerlings. At full development, 10 and 25 ha hatcheries will be capable of producing 10 million and 27 million 5-centimeter fingerlings, respectively. The estimated total annual production of fingerlings from project hatcheries is about 460 million at full development. 51. The selection of hatchery sites will be based on several factors: suitable soil conditions; availability of sufficient land; demand for fish seed; availability of electricity and communications facilities; avoidance of community displacement; and availability of assured water supplies. An independent, secure source of water for the hatcheries is essential for their commercial viability, since they will be r<equired to produce fish seed all year round. In all States except Madhya Pradesh, groundwater supplies are adequate; in Madhya Pradesh, the hatcheries will have to depend on surface water. The Government of Madhya Pradesh has identified a number of sites which appear to have adequate water supplies. Detailed data on these sites were reviewed by IDA and discussed during negotiations. Four of the sites are considered acceptable for inclusion in the project. (b) Hatchery Approach Roads 52. The project will provide for the construction of all-weather approach roads linking project hatcheries with existing communciations. Road require- ments average about 3 km per hatchery. Road construction will be executed on behalf of the State-owned Fish Seed Development Corporations (see para 54) by local contractors under supervision of the State Public Works Department, which will also be responsible for road maintenance (Section 2.13 of State Project Agreements). (c) Fish Pond Improvements 53. Approximately 100,000 fish ponds in the project area, totalling 117,000 ha, will be improved. Improvements will include earthwork for level- ling, deepening, and shaping the ponds as needed, construction of inlet and outlet facilities, and provision of bamboo screens.  - 17 - (d) Fish Seed Development Corporations 54. Fish Seed Development Corporations (FSDCs) will be established in each participating State with responsibility for construction and operation of project hatcheries and for marketing fish seed. In West Bengal, the FSDC will be an independent subsidiary of the existing State Fisheries Development Corporation; in the other project States, FSDCs have been or will be estab- lished as legally and financially independent entities. FSDCs will be managed on a commercial basis and will play a key role in project implementation. In addition to supervising project hatchery design, procurement, and construction activities, these corporations will be responsible for all production, promo- tion and marketing aspects of the fish seed operations. 55. In view of the critical role of the FSDCs to early project execution, the establishment of the FSDC, the appointment of an FSDC managing director, and the contribution by the State government of Rs 1 million initial equity share capital to its FSDC, all to be carried out by April 30, 1980, are conditions of credit disbursement for each State (Schedule 1, para 4(b)(i) of Development Credit Agreement, and Sections 2.05(a), (b) and (d) of State Project Agreements). In addition, State governments will ensure that: addi- tional FSDC equity share capital of 30% of hatchery investment costs will be provided as needed by FSDCs to enable hatchery construction to be carried out; an FSDC executive engineer will be appointed by May 31, 1980, and three senior managers by June 30, 1981; FSDCs will select the first two hatchery sites by May 31, 1980, and the remaining sites by September 30, 1980; FSDCs will limit their activities primarily to fish seed pr,duction, promotion, and marketing during the project period; and after FSDC hatcheries come on stream, existing State-operated fish seed farmis will not sell fingerlings at subsidized rates lower than FSDC fingerling prices (Sections 2.05(c), (e), (f), (g) and (h) of State Project Agreements). (e) Fish Farmer Development Agencies 56. Under the project, about 15 existing GOI-sponsored Fish Farmer Development Agencies (FFDAs), serving 16 of the project districts, will be strengthened. New FFDAs wil'L also be established within the participating States to serve the remaining 42 districts by March 31, 1981 (Section 3.01(a) of Development Credit Agreement; Section 2.06 of State Project Agreements). The FFDAs will be responsible for providing extension services and assistance to fish farmers in obtaining fish pond leases and institutional credit for fish pond improvements. To help promote improved fish culture practices and to assist small fish farmers, FFDAs may also provide a subsidy to selected borrowers of up to 25% of fish pond improvement and first year input costs, depending upon the budgetary provisions made by GOI and project States. Low income borrowers selected to receive the subsidy would be chosen on the basis of procedures determined by each State government, generally fol- lowing the pattern of the Small Farmer Development Agency. GOI and State governments will share FFDA costs equally. The credit will finance incre- mental staff, vehicle and equipment costs. FFDAs will be under the direction of the State Director of Fisheries and will assume complete responsibility for fisheries extension work in the project areas.  - 18 - (f) Training Centers for Fisheries Extension 57. New training centers will be established by December 31, 1981, and operated by the State Fisheries Departments in West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh; the existing center in Madhya Pradesh will be strengthened through the addition of civil works and equipment, and in Orissa, training will be provided at a center presently under construction (Section 2.12 of State Project Agreements). These centers will train primarily extension workers from State Fisheries Departments in fish pond culture, providing practical applications of fish culture and extension techniques. (g) Technical Assistance 58. Technical assistance provided under the project will include hatchery design and management support, project preparation, and a marketing study. In connection with the first of these, GOI will hire, by April 30, 1980, a hatchery engineer consultant to assist project States in the early stages of the project to ensure that the hatchery design and construction is cost-effective and operationally sound. GOI will also provide, by April 30, 1981, a hatchery management specialist to train new staff in hatchery opera- tions, and provide advice on operational problems (Section 3.02(c) of Development Credit Agreement). These two consultants will be available for a total of about 9 man-months each, at an estimated cost of about US$8,000 per man-month, including subsistence and travel. 59. Technical assistance amounting to about US$216,000 will also be provided for a pilot study for a possible reservoir management project, to be undertaken by GOI in conjunction with a selected State outside the project States. The study will involve the construction of a 5 ha hatchery to stock a number of small reservoirs. Monitoring of this operation will provide the technical and cost-benefit data needed to determine the feasibility of the proposed project. The operations and data-collection activities will be undertaken by the Department of Fisheries in the selected State, under the supervision of a Central Project Unit (CPU) in the GOI Ministry of Agricul- ture (see para 61). (Section 3.03(a) of Development Credit Agreement). 60. Technical assistance for the proposed marketing study, amounting to about US$209,000, will include expanding the scope of an on-going marine fish marketing study to cover inland fish marketing (Section 3.03(b) of Development Credit Agreement). The present study is being carried out by the Indian Institute of Management, under the Gujarat Fisheries Project (Loan 1394T-IN/Credit 695-IN). The expanded study will include an analysis of the domestic market for inland fish, and the facilities and economics of the inland fish marketing system in India, with particular reference to the project area. Project Implementation 61. The project will be implemented over the five-year period, from 1980 through 1985. Since no well-established institutional framework presently exists for the development of the fish seed industry, a Central Project Unit  - 19 - (CPU) will be established within the Fisheries Division of the GOI Ministry of Agriculture to coordinate and supervise project implementation. The CPU will operate under the overall guidance of a Central Monitoring and Coordinating Committee (CMCC) under the chairmanship of the GOI Secretary for Agriculture, which will also be established to provide policy guidance and review project activities in the participating States. Similar units--a State Project Unit (SPU) and State Monitoring and Coordinating Committee (SMCC) chaired by the State Secretary for Fisheries--have been or will be established within each State, with responsibility for project implementation and overall policy guid- ance at the State level. These SPUs will be established under the Director of Fisheries in the States concerned (Sections 3.02(a) and (b) of Development Credit Agreement; Sections 2.03(a) and (b) of State Project Agreements). 62. The CPU will be gene!rally responsible for coordinating project activities among the States, supervising existing FFDAs and assisting the project States in establishing new FFDAs, monitoring the availability of credit, and reviewing production, distribution and marketing aspects of fish seed operations. It will also be responsible, on completion of the project, for providing a report which would assess the project's impact and the benefits realized (Section 3.05(c) of Development Credit Agreement). In the States, the SPUs will oversee and coordinate all phases of project imple- mentation, including assisting FFDAs in developing training and extension programs, constructing and operating the project training center, assisting fish farmers with lease terms and credit, and providing data on project implementation progress within the State to the CPU. 63. In view of the importance of the Central and State Project Units and Monitoring and Coordinating Committees to successful project implementa- tion, two conditions have been established: (i) the establishment by GOI of a CMCC with responsibility for policy guidance and review of project execu- tion, and a CPU headed by a full-time officer not below the rank of deputy commissioner within the GOI Fiisheries Division, to monitor and coordinate project execution, is a condition of credit effectiveness; (ii) the estab- lishment by each State governaent, by April 30, 1980, of an SMCC, and an SPU headed by a full-time officer not below the rank of joint director within the State Fisheries Departments, is a condition of credit disbursement in that State (Sections 3.02 (a) and (b), 5.01(b), and Schedule 1, para 4(b)(i) of Development Credit Agreement; Section 2.03 of State Project Agreements). In addition, GOI and State governments will ensure that by April 30, 1980, suit- ably qualified key staff are appointed to CPU and SPUs, and by June 30, 1980, work plans and timetables for implementation of the project are prepared and submitted to the Association for comments (Sections 3.02(d) and (e) of Devel- opment Credit Agreement; Sections 2.03(b) and 2.04 of State Project Agreements). State governments will also ensure that 10-year lease terms for government fish ponds in the project area are established by June 30, 1980 (Section 2.07 of State Project Agreements). 64. FSDCs will be responsible for the construction of hatcheries and approach roads, which will be completed by the end of 1984. They will also carry out brood stock selection and hatchery staff training during hatchery construction, so that hatcheries will begin to supply carp fingerlings in each State in the third year of the project.  - 20 - 65. FFDAs will purchase equipment and organize, transfer, and train most of their staff during the first two years of the project. Recruitment of new staff, and transfer of staff from State Fisheries Departments, will be done progressively in the third and fourth years as fish ponds are developed. FFDAs will also begin preliminary extension and promotion work in the first year, and intensive extension activities in the second. Lending to fish farmers will initially be concentrated on the development of demonstration ponds in selected areas, and will expand rapidly in the third and subsequent years as fingerlings from project hatcheries become available. 66. State Fisheries Departments will establish the training centers in the first two years of the project, although limited training will be under- taken in the first year as soon as the first facilities become available. 67. In addition to refinancing loans made by participating banks to FSDCs and to fish pond operators (see para 71), the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) will provide assistance to participating banks and prospective borrowers to prepare and evaluate investment plans under the project. ARDC will prepare a banking plan for each project State, identifying the participating commercial banks, and specifying the lending arrangements and their engineering and fisheries staff requirements. The plan will also define the criteria for the selection of hatchery sites, and provide for joint appraisal and engineering approval of hatcheries by the CPU. Since a large part of the proposed credit is directed towards ARDC loan refinancing, the establishment of suitable financial arrangements between GOI and ARDC for financing the credit components of the project has been made a condition of credit effectiveness. (Sections 3.01(d) and 5.01(a) of Develop- ment Credit Agreement; Section 2.02 of ARDC agreement). In addition, the preparation of a State banking plan by ARDC is a condition of credit disburse- ment for each State (Schedule 1, para 4(b)(ii) of Development Credit Agreement; Section 2.08 of ARDC Agreement). Project Costs and Financing 68. The total project cost, including contingencies, is estimated at US$40.8 million equivalent, including about US$1.1 million in taxes and duties. The proposed credit of US$20 million will finance all of the foreign exchange costs (US$1.3 million) and about 49% of the local costs (US$18.7 million), or about 50% of the total project costs net of taxes and duties. The remaining US$20.8 millior. of the project cost will be financed by GOI and the partici- pating States (US$1.7 million), ARDC (US$7.6 million), participating commer- cial banks (US$4.2 million), and individual borrowers (US$6.2 million). 69. The principal components of the project, excluding contingencies, are: hatcheries (US$9.5 million); approach roads (US$3.6 million); fish pond credit (US$9.2 million); FFDAs (US$4.4 million); training centers (US$1.5 million); and technical assistance (US$0.6 million). 70. The project also provides for price contingencies of about US$8.8 million, based on projected price escalations of about 7% per annum for civil  - 21 - works and 6% for equipment, together with physical contingencies on civil works of about US$3.2 million, based on an estimate of 20% for hatcheries and approach roads, and 15% for other civil works. Details of cost estimates and the financing plan are given in the Credit and Project Summary. On-Lending Terms 71. GOI will channel IDA funds provided for hatchery approach roads, FFDAs, extension training centers, and technical assistance, together with its own contribution, to the projesct States in accordance with its established procedures for development assistance to State governments. IDA funds for subloans to FSDCs for fish hatcheries, and to fish pond operators for fish pond improvements and first yesar inputs, will be channelled through GOI to ARDC. ARDC would use these funds for refinancing loans by participating banks to FSDCs and fish pond operators. GOI loans to ARDC for refinancing loans made to fish-pond operators for a period not exceeding 9 years, will be repayable at an interest rate of 6.25% per annum over 9 years; GOI loans to ARDC for refinancing loans made to FSDCs for a period of 9 to 15 years, will be repayable at a rate of 6.75% per annum over 15 years. An interest rebate of 0.25% will be given for timely repayment. GOI will carry the foreign exchange risk. ARDC refinancing terms for participating bank loans will vary in turn with the income level of borrowers. These terms will provide an in- terest rate of 6.5% for refinancing loans to small fish farmers 1/, and 7.5% for all other borrowers, with repayment over periods similar to those for these ultimate borrowers. Loans made by the participating banks to ultimate borrowers will carry an interest rate of 9.5% for small fish farmers, and 10.5% for all other borrowers. The maximum period for these loans will be seven years (including up to two years of grace) for fish pond credit, and fifteen years (including up to five years of grace) for FSDC carp hatcheries. For fish pond credit, most project borrowers are expected to have low or medium income levels (up to Rs 2,000 and Rs 3,500 respectively of net annual fish farm income, based on 1972 prices), and will qualify for loans covering from 90% to 95% of the investment cost. Many of the low-income borrowers are expected to qualify for the FFDA subsidy of 25%, in which case loan coverage could be as low as 75%. Borrowers with incomes in excess of Rs 3,500 will provide down-payments of 15% of the investment cost. 72. Inflation in India between 1975/76 and 1978/79 has averaged 2.1% annually. Inflation rates are not expected to exceed 5% annually during the project period, so the proposed interest rates to the ultimate borrowers (9.5% and 10.5%) would be positive in real terms and compare favorably with real interest rates in other developing countries. In addition, these interest rates would be consistent with on-lending rates for institutional credit in other sectors of the Indian economy. 1/ 'Small fish farmer' means any individual fish farmer engaged in fishing, fish culture or related activity which provides a pre-development net return to family resources not exceeding Rs. 2,000, based on 1972 prices (Rs 3,100 equivalent in 1977/78 prices).  - 22 - Procurement and Disbursement 73. Civil works for the construction of hatcheries, hatchery approach roads, and training centers, will be procured under local competitive bidding procedures satisfactory to IDA. The hatchery sites and approach roads will be widely dispersed and the value of individual contracts will be small; it is unlikely that foreign firms will be interested in making bids. Civil works for the construction of training centers are also small, and unlikely to be of interest to foreign bidders. Small civil works, costing less than US$50,000 equivalent, may be carried out by force account. 74. Procurement of equipment for hatcheries, FFDAs and training centers would generally be in small quantities. Bulking of equipment items for these project components for international competitive bidding purposes would be impractical, due to the diversity and relatively small sizes of individual equipment items, the widely-dispersed locations of hatchery sites and FFDAs, and the differing construction and development timetables. Most of the equipment included in the project would therefore be procured locally by the appropriate project authorities (FSDCs, FFDAs, or State Fisheries Departments, respectively) through normal commercial channels on the basis of quotations from interested suppliers, with due regard to economy and efficiency. Equip- ment costing US$50,000 or more would be procured by the project authorities through local competitive bidding procedures satisfactory to IDA. 75. The works relating to fish pond improvements are small, numerous, and widely dispersed; they will be procured by individual fish farmers accord- ing to their preferences through local contractors or by direct hire of labor. 76. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against 100% of expenditures for consultant services, preparation of the pilot study for the reservoir management project, and marketing study; 75% for hatchery approach roads, FFDA incremental staff, vehicles, and equipment, and training centers; and 55% of ARDC refinancing of participating bank loans for project hatcheries and fish pond credit. Economic Benefits and Risks 77. The project's economic benefits will include the production, at full development, of about 460 million high-quality fingerlings annually, which will help to increase carp production by about 200,000 tons annually. In addition, the project will raise the income and living standards of about 100,000 fish farm families, mostly low-income members of the rural community, and will improve nutritional standards of consumers by adding to supplies of high quality protein. Even with outside income, which would not be signifi- cantly affected by the project, fish farmer incomes are generally below poverty levels. The annual net income from fish farming to the average family in the project area will increase from about Rs 500 (US$58) to about Rs 2,400 (US$279), in 1978 prices, as a result of the project. The project will also provide substantial additional employment in fish farming and fish marketing activities, as well as employment for the construction of project facilities. It is estimated that about 4,000 full-time jobs for unskilled labor, and  - 23 - 10,000 jobs for part-time unskilled and surplus family labor, will be created for fish farming, and about 4,000 full-time jobs for fish marketing. Earth- work for hatchery construction and fish farm improvement will provide for about 230,000 man-years of labor during the project period. 78. The economic rate of return for the project investment as a whole, excluding technical assistance for the pilot project for reservoir stocking and the marketing study, is estimated at about 42%. A 20% reduction in bene- fits would reduce the economic rate of return to about 22%, while a 20% cost over-run in hatchery and fish pond investment costs would reduce the rate of return to about 37%. A simultaneous reduction in benefits and cost over-run of this order would reduce the rate of return to around 19%. If the expected project benefits lag by one year, the project's rate of return would be reduced to about 22%. 79. Financial rates of return calculated for the key components of the project indicate rates from about 22% to 37% for hatcheries, and 27% to 55% for fish farms. Variations in the rates reflect differences in the capacities of the hatcheries and farms. The Fish Seed Development Corporation with the smallest hatchery capacity, and therefore the least financial viability, yielded a rate of return of about 21%. 80. The principal risks of the project are associated with the institution-building aspects of the FSDCs, and with hatchery water supply in Madhya Pradesh. FSDCs will play a vital role in the operation of project hatcheries, in producing adequate supplies of fish seed and in proving the commercial viability of fish hatchery operations. However, the FSDCs are un- tried and there is a risk that they will need more time to build up managerial competence than is now envisaged. For this reason, the hatchery management consultant is considered essential to ensure efficient operation of che project hatcheries. The necessary assurances to achieve these objectives were obtained during negotiations (see paras 55, 58). 81. Unlike the other project States, Madhya Pradesh has very limited supplies of groundwater available for hatchery water supplies. The risk is that in extreme drought conditions, possible water shortages may hamper hatchery operations. The State Irrigation department has indicated that adequate water supplies would be made available, provided that the hatchery sites are located near the sluice gates of minor tanks commanded by major tanks. Alternatively, water for the hatcheries could be pumped from reser- voir dead storage. The department has also identified a number of potentially suitable sites for which water supplies can be assured. In view of the severe shortages of fish seed, which critically hamper the development of the sub- sector, the risks involved appear justified. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 82. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Asso- ciation; the draft Project Agreements between the Association and each of the  - 24 - States of West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh; the draft ARDC Agreement between the Association and the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4 (iii) and Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to Executive Directors separately. 83. Special conditions of the Project are listed in Section III of Annex III. The establishment of financial arrangements between GOI and ARDC, and the establishment of the CMCC and CPU, have been made additional conditions of credit effectiveness. Conditions of disbursement are: the establishment, by April 30, 1980, of the SMCCs, SPUs, and FSDCs; the provision by April 30, 1980 of Rs 1 million initial capital subscription to each FSDC; the appointment by April 30, 1980 of a managing director to each FSDC; and the preparation by ARDC of a project banking plan for each State. 84. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 85. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President November 26, 1979  ANNEX I INDSj - SOCIL INDICATOR DATA SIZT Page 1 of 5 RZQacME GROUPS (ADJUSTED AL.GES LAND AmXA (TOUSAD SO. IX.) MIA - MOST RZCUT ESTATE) _ TOTAL 3287.6 Sm SAKE *l IEIGiE AWRCULTURL U18183 MST RECENT OMRAIC INCOlE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 A ESTXMAT .1k UGION a GROUP Ld GROUP L GOP PM CAPlTA (USS) 60.0 90.0 180.0 191.1 209.6 467.5 EncERy CONSllTION PER WITA (tKIGIAS 0 COAL EQUIVALEhT) 1U2.0 181.0 218.0 69.1 83.9 262.1 POPUllAION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, Mm-yZEA OIfLLIOBS) 434.9 547.6 631.7 L UDA POPULATION (P?CUT o0 TOTAL) 17.9 19.7 20.7. 13.2 16.2 24.6 POPULATION PrloJEoTNs POPUL.ATION 3 YARE 2000 (MILLONS) 973-0 SETIONuAA POPUUIUTN 1MfI0NS) 1643.0 TEAR STATIONAIY POPULATION 1S DAWNED 2150 POPULATIoN DENSITY Pr SQ. R4. 132.0 167.0 192.0 86.6 49.4 45.3 PQ SQ. 12. AGRICULTURAL LD 247.0 308.0 347.0 330.2 252.0 149.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURS (PECENT) 0-14 YRS. 40.8 42.5 42.0 44.3 43.1 45.2 15-64 Yns. 55.7 54.6 55.0 52.4 53.2 51.9 65 TIS. AND ABOVE 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 POPLATI0ON GROwZE Rn (PQCENT) TOTAL 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 URBAN 2*5$L 3.3 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.3 CRUDE 3DITM RATE (PER TIOUSAPD) 43.0 40.0 35.0 44.4 42.4 39.4 CRUDE DEATH RATE (Pt T8OUSA D) 21.0 17.0 14.0 16.4 15.9 11.7 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 FAMILT PLANNIN ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) 64.0 3782.0 4518.0 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WO) .. 12.0 16.9 7.9 12.2 13.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 100.0 102.0 101.0 99.4 98.2 99.6 PE CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT 0P REQaIRZMENTS) 95.0 92.0 89.0 93.0 93.3 94.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.0 53.0 48.0 56.1 52.1 54.3 OP WVICH ANIMAL AM PULSE 19.0 16.0 12.6 10.4 13.6 17.4 CHILD (AGES 1-4) HonTALTY RA7TE 28.0 22.0 18.0 19.2 18.5 11.4 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT B11TH (TEALS) 43.0 48.0 51.0 49.1 49.3 54.7 tNFANT MORTALITY RATE (PEU MOUSAND) *- 134.0 .. .. 105.4 68.1 ACCESS TO SAFE WATE (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL *- 17.0 33.0 31.5 26.3 34.4 URBAN 60.0 83.0 63.9 58.5 57.9 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 20.1 15.8 21.2 ACCESS TO EXCDETA DISPOSAL (PZRCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL *- 18.0 20.0 15.7 16.0 40.8 URBAN * 95.0 87.0 66.8 65.1 71.3 RURAL *- 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 27.7 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 5800.OL 4890.0 3135.0 7107.9 11396.4 6799.4 POPULATION PER N9URSING PERSON 9630.Oh 5210.0 6320.0 12064.0 5552.4 1522.1 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2590.0/j 2020.0 1231.0 2738.4 1417.1 726.5 JRB&N .. .. .. .. 197.3 272.7 RURAL .. .. .. .. 2445.9 1404.4 A4DMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 24.6 27.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD T5TAL ;.2 .. 5.2 .. 5.3 5.4 URBAS 5.2 .. 4.8 .. 4.9 5.1 IELA. 5.2 .. 5.3 .. 5.4 5.5 AVERAGE NUNB3E. OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 .. RL'RAL .. .. .. i5CESS .0 -LECIRICITY (PERCENT RF HI'E'LL:iGS ) wOTAL .. .. .. .. 22. 5 2S. 1 'IRAN *- * - 17.8 45.1 R5RAL .. .. .. .. .. 9.9  ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 INDIA - SOCIAL tNDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED A)ERAGES INDIA IDST RZCENr ESTIMATE) a SAME SAHE NEXT HIGHER MOST RECENT GEOCRAPIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /a EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLYENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 61.0 72.0 79.0 59.5 63.3 82.7 MALE 80.0 87.0 94.0 74.9 79.1 87.3 FEMALE 40.0 55.0 63.0 43.7 48.4 75.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 29.0 28.0 19.5 16.7 21.4 MALE 30.0 39.0 38.0 27.8 22.1 33.0 FEMALE 10.0 17.0 18.0 10.0 10.2 15.5 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (7 OF SECOlIDARY) 8.0 6.0J .. 1.3 5.6 9.8 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMA9Y 29.0 40.0 42.0 42.2 41.0 34.1 SECONDARY 16.0 17.0 .. .. 21.7 23.4 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 28.0 33.0 36.0 25.5 31.2 54.0 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPb'LATION 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.8 9.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 5.0 21.0 24.0 15.5 27.2 76.9 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.1 0.5 .. 2.4 13.5 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL tNTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.0 6.2 5.3 18.3 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.8 .. 1.1 2.5 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 188670.0 226870.0 261000.0/k FEnALE (PERCENT) 31.3 32.6 32.2 21.4 24.8 29.2 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 73.0 73.0 73.0 66.3 69.4 62.7 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.6 10.0 11.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 43.0 40.2 39.2 35.8 36.9 37.1 MALE 57.1 52.3 51.3 52.3 52.4 48.8 FEMALE 27.9 27.1 26.2 15.7 18.0 20.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEgOLDS 26.7 26.3/1 .. .. .. 15.2 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 51.7 48.97 .. .. .. 48.2 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF ROUSEgOLDS 4.1 6.771 .. .. .. 6.3 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.27 .. .. .. 16.3 POVERTY 'ARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) L'RBAN .. *- 83.0 86.5 99.2 241.3 RURAL .. .. 73.0 74.2 78.9 136.6 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVETY iNCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. .. 91.9 179.7 RURAL .. .. 50.0 50.4 54.8 103.7 ESTI!bATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCO'ME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN '- '' 47.0 44.3 44.1 24.8 RURAL .. ., 52.0 52.4 53.9 37.5 Not available Not apolicaleC. NOTES a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. 'b Unless ocherwise noted, data for '960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 andi 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977. c South Asia; d Low Income (S280 or less per capita 1976); l'e lower Middle income (S281-550 per capita, L9765- f .97? mid-year population is estimated at 640. . illion; a 1951-SO; 'h 1962; ,: t95S; i 1967; k 1978 mid-vear labor .orce Is estimated at .61 million; / 1964-o5. Most Recenc Estitwce of GNP per capica is for '978. August, 1979  DUOrMOF SOCIAL INPICATORS Page 3 of 5 Notes: Although the dots ar draw fer ore generally judged the mast uthonitotie sod teliable, it ohould Ila. be noteo that they coy not be Interna- tionally comarble, beososs of the lack of standrdized defisitoas and concepts used by diff-erent condtries in collecting the Ones. The data are, nontheless, usefull to denoribe orders of magitude, indinate treds, and chaatriecrtain major diffecenne bteeeo -tunraes. The adjusted snoP avrgesfrahiniaoraepopoltica-esighted geomtric men, eneIudiig the, ectrem tao f the indiosoor end the soot popuInted on, ty n ac gop. a t ak of data, group aveags of 11 indistora fr- Capital Surplus Oil Enprtees and of indistorn of A-ocus to Water nod erets Disposal , H-~sig,d Income Diatihbtion and Povety foe tihse country groups are pp.lsattoa-esightd geomtric, neae ithout en-iuin of tin ectrec -al-c and the soot opsIated coutry. ic h oeaeo countrIes n the itadhea1ters deorood on aalbialhity o,f data and is not -If-r. cation suet no e-ein,d inreintieg avrges of oneiio tor toante. Thsf vrae e mel sfu.1 as anprns.imsos of expetd'h values whor comparing the ,caues of one indicator at a time ams the coutry and referenegrus LAND AREA (thounad qh.) Aceo to Dorbafist al (rerb n of pouation) - total, =b-o, and -uclI Total - Tota surface ores comprising band are and island eaters. Nfsbr ofpol tnl e,adrrl evd by ecoreta dhcco-ale Agricultural - to. ent e-tiste of agiutca .raued tempor-ily paroentsne of their re-peti-e pouains -orta diapossI as i-nclde on peesa tonfi p.y, pantucee, saket and kitchen gar,dea or to the, colection and dicpoai cith or lthout treatnt, of husc co-et, lie fallo. acd cate-eter by cae-on ycItee or the uoc cf pit pniv,iec acdnuia GNP PER CAPITA (US$) - GNP per capota cotitees at curet uheket iu,Population Pen Phy.nliai - ~Popultion d-tde,d by o-he of peacticiog pbyc~ici-t cacltdbdoevneso etbod 00 World Osaka Atlas ' b767 bsi)tqaified from a adic-l 0010I nO nit-roty level 1960, 1970, end 1979, data. Poplto pen Nurnong Penuoc - pcpclntioo divided by coale of p-oct-ici sole ffIEPY tOO:I(PTffION %P~IoCAPITA - nA-l ,,n,-Ptl,, of onerol nrysd female groduate -uece, practical --oe, sod -0,,tota ounes (coa andlignte, etroleo, atoral gao end hyr-, occ.ea ad gco- PoPultion Per HnupitaL be oa, ro,ed lcal - Poultio [tot uie tieral eloctrio-ty) in kilcgrn of coolI eqiealet Per capita; 1960, nod -uenl div,ided by tcin ne,peotave eunbe ofE. honta IId aaiIboIe in 1970, urd 1976 dato. ~~~~~~po,blic end p-oote generl and ope-oliced bcepita1 end relnhtilot-oice onec. 1970, -d 1976 dt.. Hd.l~~~~~~~~~Ftoitalo are establ:obh-to pe-eenetlt otaffed by nt leant one phynician POPUIlTITOi AND VITAL STATISTEIC t,ablih-bcttI provIding princopally -utod-I earn ar not incioded. prn1 Total Popu1.tio.. MAid-tear (sill,o-n) - in of July ii 196c1, 1970, and b,,opitsio, hmeetr, iInclde bea1to and sedioa1 oectenoto p-rmunctly ctafre,d i977 doto. by a lnca (bunt by n medical aninbte, come, tddotfe,, etc.-) ,hiih offer UbrPpulation (per-ct of totn1) -Ratio of urbant- oa ouain nptetaeenaioedpoieaietinneo eie al on diffenent defbitlos of onio arnaey affect -cpaacloty of data Adniuni-o ner Hspita1 Ped - Total oucte, of sod 0--c to on d-charge- fr o .ogc _nnce .96.I,1970, and 1975 doto. hoopitalo div,ided by the nober of hod-. PpitinProjcot boo Poplaion in year D0ii -- C .rret population projeotiono are ta-ed t ciOtOItd 1975 total population by ge, end ec and tbeir -utoIIt, end fertility Averae Sov of HO...ehold (perooc per bo...ciold) - totul, also, ad rurl- vstec. Projection. paratofre forsotality eaten copriseI of three A bo-ebold -oni,tI of n droop of iodioidun1c ,h. nboe liolog lonreo n lece,o anuning 01 fe encet-ny nit birth I no--tlg alto ocuney- their solo -1-a A bo-d- or lodger cop -0 na cot br i-oloed : Pee aPlin oo-e level, and female hifo eopnoeno-y osilcs t boo_hold toy ocattiti-aI porpon- 975y--r. Thy parentern for fertility note alo bave ebree lev-lo overage tt-c cc pe-o- per eons - total, sloe, end -oral - A-erg, nuclei tuccalidg d-1-a ic, f-taility no-rdlog to io-a leve und pact Of peroo.. pe rcon in all orIo, end r-rul ocopi,,d -ov-t-ldolacc fanIy cIauning 0crformsoe. Dub -cutry in then asaoiged one of thene neIpeotiv-y. beelling,o -clUde oc-eoee t -otr-o mad --ocpied pn,vto. n,ine ..ebi,nti-n of oetoillep and fertilIty trendo for pro7ectio Ae_e toleotri-ty [percet of dulio)-t,,tni orbn nod rural -I oo Stotlonary popoloaloc-lo a ototaconep popolsoloc tbecnooccgnontb total, alan, cod coral dted iatgcrenpeotive-y. 000c tbn birtb rate is, e,qual tc the d-ntb -ot,, aod a1- the ego otnootor ea 0 cstrot. hio cc hine coy after f-rtillty rate, bOifiArloN declnh ote releect lee- o-cittoe rp-du-ti. onrte, hbAjcedIrlnetPto _hc goneration of coe r-ploe " t"elf I,cootly. Tic sttailoay pcpo- Prluny n-hoci totl, a _-e en female - moan cocI-, na- co ene ocl lo ni-ce-n-teimted on the boom o the projiected obhraterioti-a et oIf alne nt the Primay leve an per--ogec of _,trOi_r --lac of Lnbc popletion in tie y,enr 2000, coo The rtte of celo f fertility o-h-1-sgc popo1,,t1occo nouily -Inlde- hbold-e agno --id fynr hut rate to veplonecent level. ndjontod for doff-roet 1-gthc of pranar ,d-oti-o; io- --tn -i, -teb Yea otati__ay Ppcpitiolerace - Thb, year ,hec otatioenry population T_,vceo co_eto eIn o.ll.eet coy -co-d lID p-eroo Icc- non popiIo nic.e h-n bee -hteed. - r be,l-n or bioc IIIe .ffoi- aool ego. all.onae ltii --codn-y -ob, 1 - teol ol cod feule - cnyotou e' Ido;or or Ier c. be. - Oid-yna- poplatea- Pcr ,T-e cl-onter (ill h-tcenr) of dot-io reqolvec ot, tt door y-n- of .p.ro,d .4--00 i-.r_ 1.0 "toe T_rnproloe genea - ooool,o teaher t-nloin, d--ctrot-' I . poi.iIO Per co nc gnci 1rl ed - C-oPoond no sho- for 1-.otns ed oco-l of 12 to, 17 y-nrnf ogo;orcpudenrroonc7 tli Aouato ge lt-a.oore (poroene) - Childne (0.11 yea-)nrnn-g Voentclonal.. ooineto (p-r-co if t--dry) - V-otinn . L..i.irOOI0 a (1-iyearn),edrted(5 Yea nod --c) noPretgno -ert rhe,Len, Indothrinl, or other progr-o hbico op-tno idepncdoni ors pcpulotioo; i~60, 1970, sod 197' dato,. dep-tiocee of.....ocdnr i_ctitoaco- P-rlnci-courcheIlnceoroctl ttn- Aon-tler-thrnt-ccf tots1 ii- - Iii-tnob -rtn-pr o -.od -cocmnr- Toto1itodeae-e-r.lio Io year popul,oti-n f5Fr_ -b195; L 71W170) end 1970-77. priany mad --ocOtr loo ioOided by conl-r f t-enoer ic Ine popultloo for'950 It lig7tl-7f, Fod i7d-7`5 - Adolf Olenr-r rn.ei ..rec -t Lit-eenOlt cOin, no rea ocdo-i-ejo CrueBinth Ot tc hocasd) - Anno.. Iv II-birethI Per thrunnod of cOd- n o.ntv ftOil nd.1lt popolooioo p 1', y--c -odoer Yea _opultion l%l, 1970, co1977 data. Crode broth OnceMon thooIand) A-1O a d-tebo Per th-. - .oe:i ,lo-v- CONdlUMliN 'ppo.Ntioe 1960, 197, sod 1977 o.tto. Paone 0cfctb.ndp-utoo d-- Pootror -'so-pros coor zero trc bredo-tion Onto - A-evng .-t-c of ocotn cccaoi:Io -,otiog loo-thdo '-i1b pec-oz; rolodot,s bcoo b-e-ren colni-ny ochen -o-ml n-rodo-tio pe,rIod It ooo _ eoc boocprco c,;0-ooi z pot cfrIlit mien; ,cn llpY filv-y-or --eng- -ddlog ic Yi,, Indrob, ozic-- [per thr--dpooleon All zyoc- f -eo-ver O- -di, 0I70, end 0975. b-od-nzf to 00rc poblir por tohoocuco I. zepp Inio I I'od,o ocIzoor occrpfornofhI ba,.--oat-i oc-il- 01dm ajtop-coo' tnationa Inooly '-lo ef o oct yp-t n, a o - 'oparal, 10 . ore. t 0 tally Iuocano-neco orect '0 macrod ,ee) -l-,-tcco,- feoried TVtoonoprOotooI.ou- 1- srzoOo o cooelI nco of oild-conig ag 15- Jesr I o-o- ,inl-_otrico---o poOllo 10 lcedppFt rroo, ooeoo70nrcor to nil -a-od Ien It in tot or droop, o in -oroord-rgotoi to I P o 0i cifr-t. plo': 0101 ooTfICIPN lt~~~~~~~~~~~enspoer Clr-1ltioo (p,r thoonnoid EPoolnot1oo) h- o thln .:c- doioato nooonlprr"lorol..r,1t pnll.oooccolbc. rdut occlune tzo _fcd -r O.-POIt,O rO lot-. 1 feed cod ic ocoileodr p0cc mob. Comaid:.cc I lee,. pniar g-co d in-m ocr-il. Atooo'orpo.ooo-irr .O.ro0-r:'t'O (co. r0fcvacer-o oo rolded). Agg-egatc peod,ef Ic f carb, ootry 0 Te,ed on nationa overag prodocenr of or ,eighten. Per onpito -uppy Yf oul ri- f noo -zqui-ncto, - Crecotod f-o ho 1c c-,gy ,qolvirol I coIt foo.d copplironalbe 10c eyprcgf jjolt nlor,1 oro- -to-'.-ao I' o:'I 'olyno opcoo uoloccri per m -vcll oPolIr- o,-prlcc.a-oti,,rd.otc inport lei lrc l oolpdlto0co ot -o. tIert one LcVo I . roer h,no oe -a In cood Oc,t -.PiOooctdo colna foco, coodo, icenocotro qocotlolenood in food proonolg, cd 1 coon 1c C otnib,utic. Re,quie- Fe1fl~pt -Icne--r-tdc ' I ,tol ni-c ronor- -t,eou.r nofitiunced y P00,oocd00 ppoioioalc-co fo noon g 1 3le7~r7ot 1-- ltr '01o to-o o--ryI hootig nod co_tny Inod .-ItI _oocaooico I _or oct-t- cpeoTo_, ode oeightc. Cmzh:rg -0pneee Io t 'coO t', - -. age od cc omcorictl-oc f popuint co, 0.,d ,Jl-ncc 1, percet for loiIy(ertt a trr o, coo ri.g, --t-t-0 , -of tot-og 000 otealuohold 1eo-l. ' .t.t-Oty 00 -00c 2 r:'-conrtnd , f t '.dI 0r- coo-. i_ opln spol oI_f oncte" ~g_n ocr day) -tI :ocbot erP.ri, e-Ptilio R-:o"ooeo:t) trlcl c:.,0 atOpcIno opitn oct noc'plp of food yer dniy. Net copplp ,f:r'otIoo`e`li-,d nc otiity neon: _r pod or" -o tI ac :o rt Iinforce -e pe- ahoo. oqooncofr l 00c. -otnbliohed 1.0 tiS, pr-ide for a -ctoo,i of total, -0cc oo Porou 70_n t: 0II oI coroloiep loirnodn, a11-nn-o o' nLO ren- of tot,il -t-c Per lay at RI greno of 1-1 00 r 9- - .m h- blt oro ratoinrfleotig en.Ica 000 Podo L poteio,, of ullo 11 gr-a ohoolo On oima1 prTtin. ge-,O aec-t-r o tho looilat-zo ad hood -". mOo-r0. A fe -contmaeen These Ittd.d nec 1o-r then tho', of75 grm _flti rta ..o00 f_o otico- co 75 grI of uco-1 P-otoit no norn, ton the -orho Pp-ocd by FAO Eoo-oi eI,eadeooy R Os ,o:' tr t f popolcozo oc-r 10 oed ol cod ovoroc io thbThiodoWrId F, dlo--y. Lb,l 1.o- or-clocrc,r:ocL:,.~-4py... Po 'npe prt,in _ppip fron coiml coo poI- - Pr-tec oupply or food Child (age,1-d tolity ~tot (ic- tLb_ed - Aon d-utto pen thoocd Pero-nag C P-ivec nc 'o (lot'~ 0. oc ad lito) - co-ctod by .o.tnot in eg grou I-', Year, tohbodre.n to hit ago group; foe note d-lc- P erot,-ooc Ptpoo 2000 ptroeot, cod ooret 4l p nct pIDg conc _rt f_dataI d-ricvo fron lhfe tablni of hoooholooi. 1.7Cc locrtency cer-Average -osoe of yearn of life Pt.aetAcueioryl'c oiPo ooctc rc.oooc -eniclg at bori O96,1T97, end 1977. dntn. IlooopoocotY -oom i 1e i, '0 oo n,cc love blo- hi,,h o ricoma lofono Otenliop o lo h 1