Study of Oil Production and Prospects of Selected Central African Countries

-IDocument of O j I LU~) viiu ijaijLN =alu , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL Report No.1 876 STUDY OF OIL PRODUCTION AND PROSPECTS OF SELECTED CENTRAL AFRICAN COUNTRIES January 18, 1978 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. OIL STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. INTRODUCTION * *** *** *** *** *** **** *** *** *** ***1. 1 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS .....OED........................ 2 CHAPTER I: Gabon's Oil Situation and Prospects ............ 4 - Summary ............................................... 5 - Exploration and Reserves ................................. 5 - Share of Production and Structure of Equities 9 - Refining ....................ning.12................... 12 - The Impact of Oil on the Economy: .... 12 - the Petroleum Law of December 1974 .................. 12 - Government Oil Revenues . .. ........... 14 - Balance of Payments ................................ 17 - The Use of Oil Revenues " PID ...................... 17 - Alternative Output Projections and Related Effects ....... 18 CHAPTER II: Congo's Oil Situation and Prospects ........... 21 - Summary .................................................. 22 - Exploration and Reserves ................................ 22 - Share of Production and Structure of Equities ........... 23 - Pointe-Indienne Field ........... ................. 24 - Emeraude Field ................. .......... 25 - Loango Field ..................... ................. 25 - Refining ******************************************5 .... n225 - The Impact of Oil on the Economy ......................... 26 - Fiscal Agreements en.....s.................... ..... 26 - Government Oil Revenues ......................... 27 - Balance of Payments .....2....................... 28 - Alternatives Projection of Output and Related Effects .... 30 CHAPTER III: Chad's Oil Situation and Prospects ........... 32 - Summary ary.- .* *************..... 33 - Exploration ........ ................ ... .. . 34 - Reserves ...........4... ........ ............ ..... .. 34 - Royalties and -Taxes .. ... .... .. .......... .. .......... 34 - Production Prospects .................................... 35 - Domestic Consumption and Refining ....................... 35 - Marketing of Excess Production ......................... 36 - Potential Effects of Petroleum Production ........ 36 CHAPTER IV: Cameroon's Oil Situation and Prospects 38 - Summar .. . .. .. .. . 39 - Exploration Discoveries and Expected Production ....... 39 - Energy Consumption and Refining o ................... 40 STATISTICAL ANNEX iNTRUUCTION Four countries of WA2DB: the Republic of Cameroon, the Republic of Chad, the People's Republic of the Congo and the Republic of Gabon, are oil producers or potential oil producers. The present study provides an economic background and suggest possibilities for Bank intervention in the oil sector. This desk work has been written by the following persons: - Paul A. Popiel, Economist, also coordinating author - Maurice Gervais, Economist - Kiem R. Phan, Economist - Sarah Vincent, Research Assistant We wish to thank Messrs. M. H. Payson (WA 2), Ph. Bourcier and Fallen-Bailey (CPS EWT) Who U teL I helpL mLaments and advice have been of great assistance. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1. This desk study i/ describes petroleum developments in four Central African countries, as background to define a Bank Group posture towards the sector. Two of the countries, Gabon (population 550,000, per capita GN $2,600) and Congo (population 1.3 million, per capita GNP $250) are currently producing and exporting about 10 million and 1.5 million tons of crude oil per year each; one of the countries, Cameroon (population 7.6 million, per capita GNP $310), is expected to start production at a level of about 400,000 tons per year in 1978, and the fourth country, Chad (population 4.0 million, per capita GNP $120) has completed 8 exploration and 2 appraisal wells, but the outlook for the development of large scale production is not yet known. Consumption of refined products in these countries is low, ranging from about a high of 400,000 tons per year in Cameroon to only 70,000 tons per year in Chad. Nevertheless, all of them have or are planning refineries. Gabon has two refineries (capacity I and 1.2 million tons), Congo one (capacity I million tons), an oil refinery has been under discussion for several years in Cameroon and a project for 1.5 million tons is included in the current devel- opment plan; and in Chad where import substitution is protected by high external transnort costs. a project for a mini-refinery (85,000 tons per year) is being negotiated between the Government and the country's principal crude 2. The study noints ton imnrtnt sim1arities and imnnrtant differences in the petroleum sector in these countries, and in the problems they face with respect to its future development. In all oFfliecunrenarain in published estimates of proven reserves are so great as to make them virtually unknown, e.g. between 75 - 229 mf illion tons in Gabon; 41-721 million tons in Congo; possibly 70 million tons in Chad; and no readily available estimate in Cameroon. in comparison with major oil producers, Lhe uit costs of develo- ment and production are high in all the countries, and in the three coastal countries the largest part of proven reserves and almost all of the production is offshore. (Costs of onshore exploration and development are likely to be even higher). These high costs make exploration and development, and even production for export, less attractive, particularly at times when profit- ability is much higher elsewhere. Government take per barrel is on the order of $7.00 in Gabon and $5.00 in Congo. Elf is the most important concession- naire in Gabon and Congo, while CONOCO is the sole concessionnaire in Chad; concessions are more diversified in Cameroon. Finally, both Gabon and Congo apparently face the prospect of declining output from fields currently in production, though Congo is expected to increase its output between 1980 and 1983 from a field now being developed. 3. In Gabon, an associate member of OPEC, the causes and probability of the prospective downward trend in oil production need to be determined. 1/ Prepared by Division B of West Africa Programs Department II, under the supervision of Paul A. Popiel. - 3- High debt and debt service are a reality and will become a significant issue in any relationship with the World Bank Group. International creditworthiness is already jeopardized and with falling oIl production, se4rous finncial difficulties are very likely to emerge. Technical assistance request from the Bank Group could be offered on terms similar to those extended other high income oil producers, but the nature and objectives of such an exercise would depend very hL-eaV4Ily on the outlook for petroleum. 4. I Cogpo,which is no Longer eliil foBn borrowing because -t nLI l.UL1gU, WIiL ~fu±LgL e±gu LU.Le o BaLM UULWL U~1d~ of lack of creditworthiness, a similar technical determination of the causes of recent declines and the prospects for reserves and production is needed. However, here the questions may be narrower, centered on Govern- ment - company relations and equitable arrangements between them, and the technical and economic feasibility of maintaining production from existing wells. The Government has requested assistance from the Bank and Fund to advise on medium term stabilization policies. Progress on the points mentioned in this study would, in effect, support our efforts at the macro level not only by narrowing the range of uncertainty about oil's future, but by opening the possibility of Bank lending in the sector, if necessary on an enclave basis. 5. In Chad there is not yet any prospect for crude oil exports, since no adequate reserves have yet been discovered so justifying the costs of constructing a pipeline - some 2,000 kilometers to the nearest port. Still, high external transport costs afford the possibility of an economic justi- fication for a small refinery to satisfy domestic products demand in Chad. However, even a "field" refinery will have a capacity greater than Chad's consumption, and the exportable surplus must be competitive with products delivered to Northern Nigeria. The critical issues in this connection are the negotiation of a favorable well head price with the concessionnaire and maintenance of low capital costs for the refinery and field pipeline through international competitive bidding and longer amortization schedules. The Government would also, of course, benefit financially from concessionary finance for part of the infrastructure (field pipeline). IDA is at present considering the extension of a credit in FY79. 6. It appears that Cameroon's policies in attracting investors into the exploration and development of oil have on the whole been prudent, In vIew of the diversity and (presumably) competition in the granting of concessions and operating rights Expectations of production have not been infl1ated and the Government has been cautious in its anticipation of foreign exchange and public revenue. However, the experience with these countries demonstrates the importance of maintaining a stable environment to support an appropriate rate of development. Bank intervention could help sustain i nvestor confidence and stability in policies for the further development of petroleum resources. PCrodUUUL..LUi Lis LUWVL expected to represent a modlest share of thLe country'S exports. -4- CHAPTER I: GABON's OIL SITUATION AND PROSPECTS, CONTENT: Summary Exploration and Reserves Share of Production and Structure of Equities Refining The impact of oil on the economy - the petroleum law of December 1974 - Government oil revenues - Balance of payments - the use of oil revenues - PID. Alternative output projections and related effects -5- SUMMARY 1. The central and main issue that commands Gabon's further economic development has gradually emerged as being the future of crude oil production for the next decade. Not only is the pace of development directly related to the expansion or contraction of this enclave sector activity, but more importantly the country's international creditworthiness hinges upon it. If for the next ten years production holds on at a yearly level of approximately 200,000 barrels per day, then with an appropriate set of nolicy measures, the country should be able to maintain an adequate momentum of development and probably with some debt rescheduling retain the confidree nf the interna- tional lending community. If, on the contrary, oil production was to decline significantly below that level, then hoth economic development ndcountrs creditworthiness will be at stake. Whether production will stay over or decline below the critira leel st4ll reman4a - to a certain extent - an open question; this study succeeded in only reducing partly the margin of uncer- tainty concerning future production. ThIs is why an alternatIve scenario has been set out. The alternative projections implicitly underline the burden of the count"'s debt. Service on existing debt al represents in the case of U U L.ULL= L=FjLC Ub JLL LLLC UUbU U.L the low assumption at least two-thirds of the total expected oil revenue, and in the case of the high assUmption aUUUL four years of oil receipts. However, the analysis suggests that a probability of a decline in production below the initial level is higher at present (75 percent to 65 percent) than the probability of production staying around 200,000 barrel per day (35 percent to 25 percent). Moreover, if no new discoveries are made within the next three years then a future decline in production - three to five years hence is becoming more likely. Theretore, the Bank Group in terms of opera- tion and if it decides to resume lending should rather expect to deal with an economy significantly slowing down, increasingly berriden with financial difficulties, and encountering declining confidence of international private and public lenders. EXPLORATION AND RESERVES: EXPLORATION 2. Conditions affecting exploration in Gabon are notoriously difficult, and as a result development costs are very high, even by tropical standards: 120 inches of rain a year, a dense forest making it more difficult to work onshore than offshore, and increasingly deep offshore drilling. Costs of producing oil are estimated to be approximately ten times those in the Middle East. 3. The Government has offered the oil companies various incentives to explore (10 percent and 15 percent discounts on the posted price) in order to overcome the difficulties nresented by the geogranhv and climate. ExploratIon activity is increasing in importance now that new discoveries are needed to nrevent the Annrehended Aeline in oi-ut- -6- 1. Onshore exploration continues on the 0gocue' concession, where the main areas of interest are the coastline and the Lambarene area in the Ogooue river basin. Two hopeful tEinds were made in 197A at 011en,suho Lambarene in the Nyembe region, and at Banio near Mayumba - both just onshore. In fact an application was made iU JUU 1971 by a LLoLuLAm (l, ur,JJLLY Enserch, Kewanee, Odeco and Ocean) to exploit the Ollende field, which shows signs of having a production potential of 4,000 LU 6,U0 U/U. EfforLta turning more to offshore exploration again though, because of the difficulties and costs of prospecting onshore. 5. Exploration activity shows signs of flattening off and considering that the level of expenditure on exploration did not increase in current terms in 1977, it appears that the amount of real activity is levelling off. 6. Elf-Gabon's expenditures, the largest by a single company can be seen to be stabilizing in the case of exploration, or declining, in the case of production, as the development of fields discovered in 1972 and 1973 is completed. Table 1 ELF-GABON's CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CFAF 106 and US 103) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 ExDloration CFAF 1,687 3,265 3,532 3,163 7,292 13,950 14,450 US$ 6,075 12,509 13,808 13,740 22,220 31,666 34,532 Production CFAF 7 6A 11 ,10 1979q 17,155 17-313 17-181 US$ 27, 25,297 A43,39 5,293 77,198 79,30 81,059 Note: IFM year and exchange rates have been used. Source: Marches Tropicaux. Special issue on Gabon 7. A new type of agreement was signed in March 1977 between the Government and a group of companies, including BP as operator, who have agreed to spend 2.3 billion CFAF (US$9.6 million) on the Gamma marin permit. The agreement allows for expenditure on exploration to be written-off as soon as commercial production starts. This would presumably make explor- ation and production more attractive, and reflects the Government's desire -7- to encourage exploration. The Government hopes that the oil companies will spend a total of 108 billion CFAF (US$450 million) during the five years 1976 - 1980, on the onshore search alone. 8. A total of 24 companies are engaged in exploration in Gabon, including one private Gabonese company, Petrogab. Seven of those com- panies are producing as well as exploring. a. Onshore There is only one onihore concession, Ogooue. Permits held cover 48,892 km, about half the area held under license at the end of 1976. The permits fell due for renewal during 1976, and presumably some were not taken up again due to lack of result. Activity continues however, with seismic surveys north of Gamba. in the Ndjogo Lagoon, and around Koumaga, Mandji, and Adianongo. The whole of the onshore concession is held by Elf either alone or in partnership with others (Gulf, Shell, SNEA). b. Offshore The principal permits held are given in Table 1.3 of the RESERVES 9. There still is uncertainty as to the total size ofGaos L U L.L. .L U41. - .L. CL O LV LL L- L± L UL V&WU LL1 proven oil reserves 1/. Discounting secondary sources of information, three mainL estimates emer:L6: Table 2 RANGE AND SOURCES OF PROVEN RESERVES (in 106 tons and 106 barrels) Elf Gabon 75 mn/tons 534 mn barrels mid 1976 Petroleum Economist 180 mn/tons 1,304 mn barrels 1975 Oil and Gas Journal 229 mn/tons 2,500 mn barrels 1976 Note: For detail of the oil and Gas Journal estimates refer to Table 1.4 of the Statistical Annex. Sources: Elf Gabon (from Afrique Industry 6/1/75), Petroleum Economist Oil and Gas Journal and Petroleum Economics Limited, London. 1/ Reserves recoverable using existing technology at existing prices. -8- Table 3 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION ('000 b/d million tons) 1970 108 9.4 1971 115 5.8 1972 125 6.3 1973 151 7. I974L n2 n 1 1975 22511.3 1976 223 11.2 1977 215 e 11.3 Note: 1 ton = approx. 7.245 barrels Source: Varia 10. Gabon's oil output grew, from the first discoveries in the late 1950s to a peak of 11,325 million tonnes in 1976, making it the fifth largest oil producer in Africa in that year (after Nigeria, Libya, Algeria and Egypt). The oil fields in order of starting production are shown in Table 1.4, and the growth of output from 1970 with two projections to 1985, in Table 1.10 of the Statistical Annex. Production has currently reached a temporary plateau, with output at just over 11 million tonnes for the last three years, and an output to reserves ratio of about 15 percent (220,000 barrels per day on a reserve base of 540 million barrels). 11. Elf-Gabon, Shell-Gabon, the IMF and the Gabon Government all ex- pected 1977 production to register a slight decline, however, the Oil and Gas Journal's latest (July 1977) production figures pointed to an 8 1/2 percent increased for the first five months of 1977 over the first five months of 1976. 12. Such indications are very difficult to interpret, and may be due, for example, to the application of secondary recovery methods to the Gamba- Ivn i.L4.eld, to the use of water injection and new wells to boost recovery in two other well-established fields, Torpille and Anguille, or to the re- cent start of production of the Breme, Girelle, Pageau and GoU.ll fildU. However, it had not been expected that these factors would raise production above the 1976 level. The outcome in 1977 is therefore of particular interest in case a slight overall increase occurs. -9- SHARE OF PRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE OF EQUITIES 13. Of the seven oil companies producing in Gabon, Elf-Gabon is by far the largest, accounting for 80 percent of 1975 production, (including ERAP producing 20 percent), and Shell, 12 percent. The other four companies, in- cluding Mobil, are very small. Many more companies are involved in explora- tion activities. 14. Under its present name, Elf-Gabon has only been in existence since July 18, 1973, though its operations in Gabon uner a variet of names dates back to 1934 when, as a result of the positive results achieved by the first goloal surveys undertaken in the counry in 1928-1929 and 1932, the Syndicat d'etudes et de recherches petrolieres came into existence. The second World War s-lowe-d down t.he Syndia' aciite soewa, utelatr-rvie A4 a ' ac L. .L QWJL1W&LL ULJL& LL= LCLL= kJ.~J .LU U such encouraging prospects that in July 1949 the SPAFE (Societe des Petroles d' Afri4que Equatorlale) was formed w-I the main promotor and major shareh-oldler ~~~~~F LJL.j& ULJL .LLJ Wj A.IJIJ U W.LLL L.L L W.LL1 P.LUMULUL alU U IJ UL LUL LlLUUL being the BRP (Bureau de recherches du petrole). In February 1960, when Gabon became independent, this company was replaced by the new SPAFE (Societe des Petroles d'Afrique Equatoriale). In June 1968, the company became Elf-SPAFE through its association with the Elf Oil Group established in 1966 through a merger with ERAP of the BRP (Bureau de recherches du petrole) and the RAP (Regie autonome des petroles). The last name, "Elf-Gabon", came naturally enough. 15. The Gabonese State at present holds 25 percent of Elf-Gabon's capital. It should be recalled that in 1972 the situation was as follows: - 10 - Tab le 4 EL-GABn ETTT'TV CTUTTrTEM (in percentage) CAPITAL: 15 billion FCFA (US$62.5 million) of which: ERAP 53.050 Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE) 14.543 Societe Generale de Distribution Petroliere (SOGEDIP) 9.727 Societe Nationale de Financement de Recherches du Petrole (SNIP) 4.692 Compagnie du Nord 3.323 Compagnie Francaise des Petroles 1.602 Gabonese State 0.575 Congolese State 0.575 Central African Empire 0.575 Shadian State 0.575 Various Private Shareholders 10.763 Source: Marches Tro-icaux: Gabon 1960-1980, Mnu 1Q77 This spectacular jump from 0.575 to 25 percent (June 1975) was entirely due to the purchase by Gabon of UUpLnY sLaL Li Lect Lthe jUWrLeuLmi L control in December 1973 of 1.725 percent of the shares transferred at no cost in 1959 to Congo, the Central African Empire and Cad. 16. The country also produces natural gas. - - 11 - Table 5 NAURAL GAS ESTIMATED RESERVES AND PRODUCTION (in 106 of cubic feet and cubic meters) Produced Sold Commercially Cu. ft. Cu. Meters Cu. ft. Cu. ft. 1970 7,000 200 10.6 1.1 1971 6,500 185 10.6 1.1 1972 7,000 200 12.0 1.2 1973 6,500 185 14.0 1.4 1974 7,000 200 19.0 1.6 1975 2,500 70 19.0 1.6 1976 2,500 70 n.a. n.a. Notes: 1. The majority of the gas sold is used in the refinery and electricity power station at Port Gentil# The balance is eith.er used for power at oil fields or is flared. 2. 1 cu. meter = approx. 35.3 cu. ft. Source: Petroleum Economics Limited, London LI. GaDOn is faced with the general question of whether to use its limited gas reserves for industrial purposes or for gas injection. If present exploration activities prove unsuccessful, they will probably be used for the latter. 18. ERAP 1/ Entreprise de recherches et d'activites petrolieres is a public French company. ERAP, which made a financial contribution to Elf-SPAFE within the framework of an increase in capital for which the latter company could find no partners, invested in association with Elf-Gabon in the exploi- tation of different "offshore" deposits (mainly Grondin, Barbier, Pagean, Gonelle and Girelle). Its share in this partnership was 34.725 percent as compared with 65.275 percent for Elf-Gabon. 1/ Source: Marches Tropicaux: Gabon 1960-1980, May 1977 - 12 - 19. Shell-Gabon 1/ became associated with Elf-SPAFE for prospecting and exploiting petroleum in Gabon in 1959. The company then formed in Port Gentile was called Compagnie Shell de recherche et d'exploitation au Gabon (COSREG). It only became Shell-Gabon in 1964. 20. Shell-Gabon's activities are becoming increasingly important. This company alone holds 17,550 km2 in research permits (Atlantique and Mayumba Grands Fonds) and an additional 7,235 km2 of marine permits in nartnPrqhip (Libreville-Marin, gTue1.-Mayumba and Rigornea1) as Wel1 a 10,000 km2 of terrestrial permits (Ogooue-Sud). REFINING 21. Gabon has encouraged the installation of refining capacity with the a-im Of max-K-imiZing local value added and now has two refineries. The first, at Pointe-Clairette near Port Gentil started in January 1968, (capacity I million tunes) and is operated by SOGARA. In July 1976, a second refinery, capacity 1.2 mn tonnes started operations, also at Port Gentil. It is operated by COGER, and owned 30 percen-t by the Government and 70 percent by Elf under the auspices of the PID (Provision pour Investissements Diversifies). 22. The first refinery largely supplies the domestic market and meets most needs except that for aviation fuel, as well as exporting to other UDEAC countries (Cameroon, CAE, and Congo). The products of the second refinery will be entirely exported, although the establish- ment of a refinery in Congo, Cameroon, and of a mini refinery in Chad will reduce Gabon's UDEAC export market to some extent. Gabon is also moving into petroleum by-products such as ammonia, paints and lubri- cants, through the PID (Provision pour Investissement Diversifies) 1/. 23. Total refinery throughput amounted to 857,000 tonnes in 1974, 1,453,554 tonnes in 1976, and is expected to be around 2 mn tonnes in 1980. THE IMPACT OF OIL ON THE ECONOMY The Petroleum law of December 1974 24. Since December 1974, all petroleum activities in Gabon have been subject to a snecial law voted by the National Assembly. This law replaces the Mining Code of 1962 partly on account of the country aQnriAvinn on Novemhr 19- 1976 with OPEC of which it benamg a full-fledged member on June 10, 1975. If Lr. paragraph -2. - 13 - 25. The law on petroleum reasserts State ownership of the nation's re- sources. In calculating royalties and taxes, it makes widespread use of the realized price instead of posted or quoted prices. It obliges all companies wishing to obtain a research permit to pay a minimum of 100,000 CFA francs per km depending on the interest of the zone under consideration. If an exploitable deposit is found, this premium is supplemented by a payment ranging from 200 to 800 million CFA francs after 120 consecutive days of exploitation, at a pumping rate ranging from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. 26. Under the terms of the nptroleim law- the Gahnnes qtate isa aso- ciated in exploitation through its ownership of a minimum of 25 percent of the captal suc'h aparticipation giving it the right to receive in kind a share of production corresponding with the share of the capital it holds. 27. A paritary Investment Fund has been established between the State and the operating petroleum companies to make use of fiscal receipts from petroleum which, because of their temporary nature, must be reinvested in "oprof itabl.e and permanent industrial activities". The right to transport a minimum of 50 percent of crude production has been granted the Compagnie nationale de transport a hydrocarbures. 28. The operating companies are obliged to give priorities to supplying local demand and providing crude for Gabonese refineries. From the fiscal standpoint, the original text of the law includes the following provisions: - a proportional mining levy: rate between 12.00 percent and 16.67 percent of the field value of liquid hydrocarbon and between 5.00 percent and 9.00 percent of gaseous hydrocarbons. The rate to be applied is specified in the establishment agreement and will be adapted to the policy followed by OPEC. - a fixed rate levied on the establishment, renewal or transfer of a permit: 10,000 to 100,000 CFA francs (US$42 - 417) for the research permit, 30,000 to 10 million CFA francs (US$125 - 42,000) for an operating permit and 40,000 to 25 million CFA (US$175 - 105,000) for the concession. - superficiary payments: 10 to 150,000 CFA Per km2 and per year for a research permit and 700 CFA francs (US$3) per hectare and per year for an operating permit with a reduction of 4/5" for offshore permits for depths below 200 meters and the elimination of this permit for the areas situated outside of the minus 1,000 meter mark. - Corporation tax: at 73 percent of taxable profits, dPtPrmined as a function of sale price fixed by the public authorities. This rate may be varied depnding upon the measures approved by OPEC. Reserves for investment may not exceed 10 percent of turnover. Corporate taxes which ca fo 30 p 1971, were raised fo A2 percen, 7 pecet, 55 pe cent, 56.25 percent and 73 percent. - 14 - 29. The rate for the mining levy or royalties which was only 5.2 per- cent in 1970 rose between then and January 1975 to the following figures: 10.2 percent, 11.4 percent, 12.0 percent, 13.8 percent, 14.5 percent, 15.8 percent, 16.7 percent and 20.0 percent, the latter in agreement with OPEC decisions. In addition, to encourage exploration and production, the com- panies are allowed a margin of $1.15 per barrel (1976) as against $0.20- 0.25 in the Middle East, and the actual profit tax is below the rates appli- cable in the Middle East and Nigeria. 30. Corporation tax is payable in four equal installments at the end of February, April, June and August. Royalty payments are made monthly to an amount of 95 nercent of assessed liability, which is based on the average monthly production of the preceeding quarter. Final settlement is made within two months of the And of the year. 31. Royalties are 20 percent of an amount less than the posted nricp by a discount to allow for transport and handling, and profit tax is 73 percent for the purposes of which PTI contributions adeduci ble. The assessment is different for the two types of oil produced in Gabon-Mandji (290 API, A 1. per .s A (310 AP T . phr Gamba involves higher exploration costs, and royalties are payable only on 85 percent of the posted price (instead of 970 percent for MandJi) althughIamb is lighter. The evolution and detailed structure of Government revenues per barrel are shown in Table 1.8 and 1.9 of the Statistical AnnlUex, Uand total Government revenue for both output projections of the Statistical Annex in Table 2. 32. Late in 1975, a new arrangement was introduced whereby the sharp fluctuations in the external reserves caused by the timing of company tax and royalty payments are avoided. Government Oil Revenues 33. The effects from the increase in petroleum production and the con- siderable rise in the rates mentioned above have provided Gabon at the present time with quite exceptional fiscal receipts. In 1976, fiscal receipts from petroleum came to 120 billion CFA francs (US$500 million) while in 1972, they were barely 5 billion CFA francs (US$ 21 million): meanwhile, they have increased 17 fold. 34. Oil revenues have been estimated by the IMF to constitute over 60 percent of budgetary receipts, although on the average they are lower than in other OPEC countries 1/. Production costs are high, and so are fixed costs because production and reserves are both on a relatively small .qral and the oil companies amortize their investments fairly fast (see Tables 1.7 and 1.8 of Statistical Annex). 1/ Tn 1975, the Gao GovMet's per arVr re its were AI boit US$7, compared to an average $10 for the other 11 members of OPEC. -15 - Table 6 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS (CFAF 10 ) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Petroleum revenues 4.4 6.2 36.6 96.0 116.0 Other 25.2 29.1 48.5 58.2 74.8 Total 29.6 35.3 85.1 154.2 190.8 Petroleum as % of total 15 18 43 62 01 Source: IMF. Art. XIV, January 28, 1976 In terms of GDP, in 1975-76 revenue represented 43 percent; oil revenue alone 28 e a per capita they were of CF 244, 000 or US$1, 433. 35. In spiteof these, windfall revenues for reasons of misallocation of public resources, lack of planning and poor management the general Govern- ment accoun recorded %A defiL Uqual to 50 percent of total revenue that was mostly foreign financed. This in turn brought mid 1977 by our estimates the external debt to the US$1.5 billion mark or (US$3,000 per capita). 36. The major part of this debt is owned to private international bank- ing institutions and, not surprisingly the banking community is becoming increasingly uneasy, not only about the size of the debt but also about its poor management and bad recording. Reportedly several major banks have refused to roll over loans or have made them conditional to substantial improvements in debt management. 37. In 1975 and 1976 two major international banks have sent separate missions to the country to investigate the debt situation. Both independently came to very similar set of data and conclusions. They reported end February 1977 a total long and medium term external debt of US$1.2 1/ billion and borrowing requirement for 1977 of US$630 million. Debt service on existing debt is projected as shown in the Table below: 1/ Includes only debts with maturities of one year or more. - 16 - Table 7 DEBT STRUCTURE AND DEBT SERVICE (in US$ 106 and percentages) I Debt Structure in US$106 in percentage - Sunnliers credits 214.9 22.3 18.4 - Short term bonds 317.8 33.0 27.2 - Euro credits 431.4 44.7 36.9 Sub-total direct Gnornment and agencies 964.1 100.0 82.5 Guaranteed loans 204.1 17.5 Total 1,168.1 100.0 Estimated borrowing requirements for 1977 US$632.0 x 1/2 316 Estimated Total 1,484.1 II Maturities 1977 Principal 144.9 31.4 Interest 102.8 22.3 301.4 1978 Principal 158.3 32.6 Interest 112.3 23.1 326.3 1979 Principal 146.4 31.8 Interest 90.3 19.7 288.1 1980 Principal 143.4 30.6 Interest 88.1 18.3 280.8 1981 Prinrinal 101.8 18.4 Interest 38.0 7.7 165.9 1982 Principal 11.2 2.0 Interest 2.8 .5 16.5 Source: As reported by a major international bank. -17- Balance of Payments 38. Petroleum is by far the largest single export from Gabon, account- ing for over 70 percent of total export earnings in 1976. The details of Gabon's export trade can be seen in Table 1.10 of the Statistical Annex and the contribution of oil is shown below in percentage terms. Table 8 PETROLEUM IN GABON'S EXPORTS (in CFAF 109) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Total exports 67.6 8A.7 2A2 910.8 250.0 i of which: crude 26.0 27 13016 13.7 15 &JL. p~ jL. U UU%.L. ~ -t U -0 V &S. a LJ A J*1 :oter rodcts 4.8 5. 1 2. 11. 25.1% V.L. as % f to ta l -6 3977 IV 1 7 Note: /1 estimate Source: IBRD, WA2DB 39. Export earnings from oil will probably rise by about 10 percent in 1977, as prices have risen even though the total output is expected to be slightly lower, and as the proportion of refined products in the total will increase given that the unit export value of products is higher than that for crude. 40. The balance of payments was fairly healthy up to 1974, with a posi- tive resource balance every year from 1968 (see Tables 1.11 to 1.14 of Statis- tical Annex) but in 1975 a current account (and resource balance) deficit was registered because of sharp increases in imports of both goods and services, related to oil exploitation 1/. The outlook is not good, as exports will probably at best only rise slowly, while imports soar as a result of not only development spending. but also consumption spending and prestige projects. The Use of Oil Revenues - PID 41. The Government, in its latest Develonmemt Plan. annears to have acknowledged the possible finite nature of its petroleum resources, and is tryina to enorae rtin anA TnTT nand maximie shnrt term revenues so to develop the economy in anticipation of the exhaustion of oil. 1/ Although a substantilal part of the outflow on services was caused by ±I ALLltLnl ULd u L L Llo iLL LexlaUtUiY additional expenditures on oil exploration. - 18 - 42. One of the most active steps it has taken has been to set up the Provision pour Investissements Diversifies (PID) in March 1974. This scheme was started with the intention of transforming temporary revenues into pro- ductive investments to enable a transition to take place from an oil-based economy to one with a broader industrial base. It involves foreign (espe- cially oil) companies investing 10 percent of their sales proceeds in indus- trial ventures in other than extractive industries. 43. PID contributions are tax-deductible and have so far only applied to Elf and ERAP, although Shell is currently being brought into the arrange- ment. The Gnvr,anment holds A 50 nrpent eniity stake in 11 of the venuires. 44. The PID, while originally intended to concentrate on heavy indus- tries, has become involved in a great variety of sectors, including paints, il LLi.LLL, sUgar,ne. , = WmJUmn aJn.d in ULLL.LL CUU .format.1on sYst.=L However, it is reported that PID contributions paid to the Treasury have been used to support the Treasury's liquidity position, and have been dis bursed, as part of which process some of the funds have gone into the Transgabonais. ALTERNATIVE OUTPUT PROLJECTIONS AN RELATEU EFFCTS 45. As the only significant discovery made in 1976 was the Ollende field, output will almost certainly decline from 1977 onwards, after re- maining at a plateau for three years. After that, however, the outlook is not at all clear. In Table 1.10 of the Statistical Annex, two alternative projections are made. The difference between the two projections merely emphasizes the uncertainties surrounding Gabon's future oil production, since both projections are based on possible assumptions. Though as pointed out above, by examining each field, past production and prospects, and trend in aggregate production and the past rythm of discoveries and their geological and geographical location, the probability of the low assumption ranges between 75 percent and 65 percent versus 25 percent to 35 percent probability for a future level of production similar to the past. a. The high case is therefore based on an optimistic scenario inspired by the possibility that Gabon's recoverable re- serves are as large as the Oil and Gas Journal or Petroleum Economist believe them to be (300 or 180 million tonnes). Under this case, it is assumed that the recent lack of new discoveries is a temporary phenomenon, that substantial amounts of oil remains to be discovered, and that after a short-lived fall in output, production will be maintained At 10 million tonnes A vpr throiah 1985. The dplav of 2 - 3 years in bringing a field into production will mean an upturn in 1981, assumin no major c4 a ra anr mae untl 4 1 1978. This projection corresponds broadly with the high variant of oil output in the Government's Third Development Plan (1976-1980). - 19 - b. As a result of the lack of recent finds, the low case projection is the same as the high case in 1977, 1978 and 1979. From then on, however, output is expected to fall steadily to 1985 (with no major discoveries), in line with the expectations of Elf-Gabon and Shell, among others, that production will virtually cease by 1985. The decline is based on the following facts: 3 percent of all reserves discovered so far were in fields which are now exhausted, 69 percent of all reserves so far discovered are in fields with declining production, only 28 percent are in fields with increasing production, and no new fields are due to be brought into production as far as is known. However, if secondary recovery temporarily causes an upturn in the output of the Gamba-Ivinga field, the above figures would become 45 percent declining and 52 percent increasing because of the size of that field alone. Although fields are still being brought into production, they are dis- coveries made in 1972. 1973 and 1974 (Anguille. Barbier, Girelle, Breme and Merou), and the size of discoveries is becoming progressively smaller. The effect on total output of these new fields is therefore to lessen the rate of decline rather than to halt it. 46. Outnut in hoth cases can he hoosted to a certain extent, as has already happened, by the use of secondary recovery techniques in suitable fields. Again, the decline in output woIld be lessned a the time- span of production lengthened, but the fall would continue. 47. The following table compares the revenues derived from the low and hi4gh case projeCtions wi"h petroleum revenues i n the low variant of: tLL. L J pt P.L n .L J L the Third Development Plan. - 20 - Table 9 COMPARISON OF PROJECTED OIL REVENUES (CFAR 109 At 1976 nrices and US$ 10 6 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Development Plan (low variant) 94.9 114.6 105.3 87.1 78.6 TSL3 7 1 /.77 . I3Q . 8 0 3 .0 . uoy 4 w I 2 ~ J Low case projection 116.3 116.0 110.2 101.0 87.6 US$ vj 659.9 48.3 59.2I 420.80 365.2- High case projection 116.3 116.0 110.2 101.0 92.8 US$ 659.9 483.3 459.2 420.8 386.7 Note: Assumes an exchange rate of 238.98 CFAF/$ in 1976, and 240 CFAF/$ thereafter. Projected revenues are deflated by oil price index. Source: IBRD, WA2DB 48. For the whole five year period the Government had estimated total expenditure to be 857 billion CFAF of which 480 billion would derive from petroleum. According to the low case projection, cumulative revenues will be 530 billion CFAF, which would reduce the Government's estimated borrowing requirement over the 5 years from 351 billion CFAF to 301 billion CFAF. The difference is marginal, but indicates that the situation could be slightly less than initially thought, or than is indicated below. 49. . The gravity of the situation can be seen by comparing future revenues accruing to the government with existing government expenditure cnmmitannts in the fieldq of debt servicinc. and the TransLabona-s (the largest single project in the country). 50. - Gabon's external debt already stands at $1.5 billion, which alone will entail debt service payments of $1 billion between 1977 and 1980. $1 billion is the equivalent of almost two years' oil revenues, and that is withLout taking into account the further borrowing requirement of another $. billion by 1980, foreseen in the Development Plan. 51. The first phase alone of the Transgabonais will also cost nearly $1 billion up to 1980 (195 billion CFAF at 1975 prices), so that these two items will take up most of all the.Government's receipts from oil, not to mention the other large investment projects. - 21 - CHAPTER II CONGO'S OIL SITUATION AND.PROSPECTS CONTENT: Summary Exploration and Reserves Share of Production and Structure of Equities - Pointe-Indienne Field - Emeraude Field - Loango Field Refining The Impact of Oil on the Economy - Fiscal Agreements - Government Oil Revenues - Balance of Payments Alternatives Projection of Output and Related Effects - 22 - SUMMARY 52. The Congo never produced much oil. Great hopes were created by the discovery in 1969 of sizeable reserves, and later in 1973 by the begin- ning of large scale production. Optimistic perspectives of 10 million tons of output by 1980, apparently shared by the oil companies and the Govern- ment prompted the latter to launch an ambitious three year development program. In 1975 unexpectedly and reportedly because of geological dif- ficulties oil production levelled off at around two million tons, leaving the country in great financial difficulties and deep in debt. Relations turned sour between the authorities and the oil companies as original agreements unadapted to the unfavorable production trends, had to be renegotiated. It is Renerallv agreed that with the present number and type of platforms and drilling equipment oil production from the now exploited fields will dry out by 1985 - 1987. 53. Besides the issues of defining the size of reserves which are not yet fully determined, of appraising the exploitation potential of the third discovered f ie ali T.k4ou, a1 n ind resuming exploration, the main medium term issue is whether it is at all possible to expand production from the ongoing wells. If it is, then, the related issues are (1) how much additional invest- ment in secondary recovery techniques this expansion would require (and what would be an adequate and fair rate of return on such an investment) and (2) can the investment climate be improved to the extent of inducing the companies to resume investment and further exploration. This main issue is not only critical (because of the additional revenue it might generate) to the stabi- lization of the economic and financial situation and to the reestablishment of the country's tarnished internatinal creditworthiness, but also essential to its longer term development prospects. In fact, at around 4 million to 5 million tons of output, assuming the present pattern of revenue, the Congo could structurally balance its budget and repay the bulk of its debts within a reasonable period of time (given an adequate set of economic, fiscal and monetary policies). 54. The CPS - EWT Department has agreed to look into this situation, and (1) appraise whether the Bank might serve as a vehicle for a constructive role in helping to find a common ground between the country's authorities and the oil companies and (2) if there is ground for additional present or future investment, consider the possibility of the Bank either sponsoring it, partici- pating in it, or simply guaranteeing it. EXPLORATION AND RESERVES EXPLORATION 55. The Congo coastal and offshore oil producing zone is a southern extension of a complex structure which extends from Gabon in the north through the coastal and offshore zones of the Cabinda enclave, Zaire and Angola to the south. The complex formations and sluggish flowing oil - 23 - as well as deep water have created the production difficulties of the Congo offshore, that have disappointed the initial expectations of a high rate of output. All the oil found so far in Congo is heavy, but that in Emeraude slightly heavier (220 API) than that of Loango (270 API). 56. Exploration really started in Congo as early as 1955 - 57. In the latter year, the small Pointe-Indienne field was discovered. Explora- tion was resumed on a large scale by 1969-1971, and mostly conducted by Elf in asQnritinn with AG.TP (see tahles 91 and 9.9 of the StAtisticAl Annex). In 1975, however, Getty as operator was awarded a "seismic option" to underta al-e - deep sea geographical survey of the Congolese coast. Phillips, AGIP, and Hispanoil have equal shares in this project. 57. Emeraude, the main field, was discovered in 1969 and Loango, a smaller one in 1972. Elf-Congo has been testing a recent discovery at Likouala, northwest of Emeraude Marine, but it is not yet known whether the deposit is commercially viable, and Elf and AGIP are reported to have also made two discoveries in 1975, but again, the potential is not known. So no new commercially exploitable findings have been announced since 1972, but Elf is optimistic that sizeable deposits exist, and is apparently inter- ested to continue exploration. However, Elf and AGIP stopped exploration activities in 1975 due to disagreements with the Government and it is doubtful that they will resume them on their own because of political uncertainty and of an adverse investment climate (the previous Government expropriated the distribution companies of Texaco and Mobil, and compensation will probably be settled soon). The new Government which was formed following the assassina- tion of President Ngouabi in March 1977 appears more pragmatic and more willing to encourage foreign investment in the mineral sector. However, the investment atmosphere is still discouraging. 58. It was reported in May this year that a new round of negotiations between Elf/AGIP and the Congolese authorities was underway relating to further exploration activity and revised fiscal terms for new discoveries. 59. The level of recoverable reserves 1/ has fluctuated in relation to the changing rates of recovery (see Table 2.3 of Statistical Annex). At their peak in 1972 they were estimated at 5 billion barrels or 721 million tons. In 1976 the estimates were down to 285 million barrels or 41 million tons. The country also has some natural gas. SHARE OF PRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE OF EQUITIES 60. The share of production and structure of equities is illustrated in the Table below: 1/ Reserves that are recoverable with present technology and at present p i .8-- F L.L b -24- Table IV SHARES OF OrrAIO.LNSO LOther Name Operator Companies Madingo Maritime (Loango) AGIP (65%) Elf (35.00%) Pointe Noire (Emeraude) Elf (65%) AGIP (35.00%) La Lorme (Likouala) Elf (63.75%) State (36.25%) Haute Mer ( ) Elf (63.75%) State (36.25%) Source: Petroleum Economics Ltd., London and IBRD, WA2DB Production Total country's production of crude is summed up by Table 11 below. Table 11 CONGO'S CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION (in 10 tons and barrels / d) 1970 19.9 180 1971 18.9 360 1972 323.3 6,890 1973 2,042.7 34,830 1975 1,789.2 36,880 1976 1, 10 3 0 000 1977 (estimate) 1,540.0 26,000 Source: (see also Statistical Annex Table 2.5) Petroleum Economics Ltd., London and IBRD, WA2DB Pointe-Indienne Field 61. This field was brought on-stream in 1960 by Elf at an initial production rate of about 1,000 barrels per day. Production reached a peak of about 2,500 barrels per day in 1962, from which time it declined to a current level of about 250 barrels per day. The field also produces small volumes of gas which were utilized in a nearby potash plant. - 25 - Emeraude Field 62. Emeraude Marine started production in 1972, and peaked in 1974 with a production of 2.4 million metric tons. The field is located about 19 kilometers offshore at a depth of about 600 meters and under 60 meters of water. Considerable problems have been encountered during the development of this field which have substantially reduced production expectations from what was originally envisaged. Three principal reasons would appear to be respons- ible for limiting the recovery factor to about 3 percent of the reserves: (i) very weak reservoir pressure, which in combination with the relatively shallow depth between the seabed and the production zones, limits the number of producing wells to 5 or 6 per platform with resultant investment implications. (ii) high viscosity and low gravity (220 API) of the oil, which makes it difficult to produce. (iii) geological nature of the reservoir making pressure maintenance complex which affects level of production. 63. Development drilling was completed in February 1976 and produc- tion for Emeraude is expected to have peaked in 1976 at under 39,000 barrels per day. Future nroduction is eAneted hv Elf tn hp limitpr tn Ahmut 50 million barrels during the next 10 years. Loango Field 64. The field is located 39 kilometers offshore at a depth of 760 meters and Under 861 meters of water.Thedrligpaorsndnerduin %&'.~ ~ U L& UWL. A.UL 6 UL.L.L.LL.L Ly, LL pla-frm and On pOucionUL platform will be utilized to drill a total of 34 production and 8 injection wells. Secondary recovery - in the nature of water flooding - may De used from the outset of production. Oil will be piped directly ashore through a line of 4U centimeter in diameter and then by a newly construcLea land line the 96 kilometers to Pointe Noire. This oil is of a better quality than 0- Emeraude (27 API) and the field is not expected to present as many produc- tion difficulties as Emeraude. Production was originally scheduled to start during 1975/76, but has been delayed, again due to technical problems and special drilling and production platforms have had to be used because the seabed consists of very heavily compacted clay. However, the first of four production platforms is currently being installed, and started producing in August 1977. The other three are planned to be installed at four monthly intervals from that time, so that that AGIP expects to bring the field on- stream early in 1978 at an initial rate of about 44,000 barrels per day. It is anticipated that 1979 production will be marginally higher and then decline. REFINING 65. In 1974, 232,000 tons of refined products were consumed in Congo, all imported from Gabon. A wholly Congolese owned refinery of capacity of.20,000 barrels per day has been constructed by a Belgian consortium Sybetra, at Pointe Noire. The original cost estimate was CFAF 13 billion, but cost overruns have now reached at least another CFAF 7 billion, and responsibility for the overruns is yet another cause of disagreement between the Government and the foreign companies. It is due on-stream during the current year and has been specially designed to run on the low quality crude produced from Emeraude. As it will be many years before the country's oil demand reaches the capacity of the refinery either it will have to operate at significantly below its potential or there will be a large product surplus available for export. THE IMPACT OF OIL ON THE ECONOMY Fiscal Agreements 66. Three phases can be identified: (i) Original concession terms consisted of a 14-1/2 percent royalty and a 47 percent tax rate with a 20 percent Government financial participation in any development. The Government was not entitled to any oil. Following the start up of Emeraude and the decision to develop Luango. Elf/ATP submitted productlon estimates to the Congolese authorities, who in turn based the 1974-77 economic plan on the expected revenues. Because of the technical problems involved in developing Emeraude (dis- cussed above) and the delays in brnging Loango on-stream, actual production has fallen far short of that originally estim-Atd 1974 Estimate Actual 1975 19 million bbls 13 million bbls 1976 34 million bbls 14 million bbls 1977 56 million bbls 10 million bbls (ii) As a result of this shortfall in production, an agreement was reached in mid 1975 whereby the 1975 shortfall (6 million barrels) would be compensated by an advance payment by Elf/ AGIP of $20 million. Further negotiations resulted in "no profit" terms being agreed for Emeraude and Loango in September 1976 for the period until after 1980. It is not clear to what extent "no profit" includes cost recovery. Government take at - 27 - this stage was estimated at about $4.30/per barrel. How- ever, immediately following this agreement the Government So y. Ts situation -was said , by the companies, to cause them significant losses. i L. aceu W.LL& stagnating proutLLiUU, bULLI b.UU WeLe UdLaisiLeU with the arrangements: the Government sought to increase its receipts, and the companies to get a higher depreciation allowance. In October, the Government announced a new law in which the royalty rate was raised to 17-1/2 percent, the tax rate of 49 percent, and the depreciation allowance fixed at 11.43 percent of the posted price. The royalty and tax rates were to be applied retroactively to January 1, 1976. The companies questioned both the legality and applicability of the new rates on three counts: a) that they were contrary to the earlier April 1976 agreement, b) that it will cause the companies losses of $1.50 per barrel and c) that it is illegal to apply the increases retroactively. Up to March 1977, the dispute continued, and the oil companies were paying the Teasury at the pre-October 1976 rates. However, in March, a new agreement was concluded, whereby the companies are able to claim higher operating costs and will therefore increase oil output, from which the Government in turn derives revenues. 67. Two further issues on which agreement has to be reached, are the terms of future exploitation, and the alleged delays on the part of the Government in renewing research permits. Congo broadly follows OPEC initiatives in relation with oil companies, and OPEC has fixed oil company margins at $0.50/per barrel. However, the companies claim that they are not rpceiving an naeute return nn invst-mit beaue rf high costs and so one of the arguments is how to calculate those costs - particularly the nroduction costs of LoAnon. 68. After staying at $10.80 ea4n 197A, tho off s4ellig price (as opposed to the posted price of $13.20) for Congolese crude oil has been rai sed to $11,.9 n 19077, in lin wit OPEC upper tier pries Thi &S~~. ~ ~ Y WWLO. -J .." I .rJ L, = .*l LJ. W.LL WJL"lt UIJ9p . 1.LCS FA.tL.=0 * LLLJ..S price is slightly higher than that for Gabon, because Congolese crude is Uj_U_ f)I Anv% U _ ,- fllf%o A % m- _ I.LLeL (L API.) LLLaL GUUne (3U I)r. ThLe UaLLtL prsc rL Congolese oil are not wholly favorable, as it is a relatively high cost producer, especial3y since there is now (-in the short term) more oil available from Alaska and the North Sea on world markets. Government oil revenues 69. Revenue from petroleum is of critical importance to domestic Govern- ment operations, and the decline in revenues can be seen in Table 2.5 of the Statistical Annex. - 28 - T abl e 12L CENTRAL GOVE0LRMENT BUUZ1EtAY OPRrATIONS "9' (in CFAF 109 1974 1975 1976 1977 /3 Non-petroleum revenues 20.4 30.7 32.6 /1 35.0 /2 Petroleum revenues 20.5 13.5 16.1 13.7 Total 40.9 44.2 48.7 48.7 Petroleum as % of total 50 31 33 28 Notes: /1 IMF estimate, /2 IMF Projections; /3 240 CFAF/$ Source: IMF, Art XIV Consultation, May 1976 70. The failure of budgetary receipts to reach anticipated levels has led to the abandonment of the ambitious 1975-77 develoment program (the origins of which go back to 1974), to attempts to cut back public spending, and to heavy foreign indebtedness which had actually been contracted in 1973 and 1974 in expectation of high oil revenues that failed to materialize. Cono ra-ivzd n lon of nnrnwimar1v 7.L million TTq from STAREX for timhpr export shortfalls in 1975, but, by 1976, the external and internal financial position necessitat negotiating a stand-by credit and a compensatory facility for shortfalls in export earnings during 1976. The unfortunate development described above, dramati4call1y ill1ustrates the pro-fo-und 4mac via increased revenue that an expansion in oil production would produce. Balance of Payments 71. The contribution of oil to Congo's exports can be seen in detail in Table 2.5 of the Statistical Annex and the development of that contri- bution in percentage terms, from 1972 to 1976 is as follows: - 29 - Table 13 PETROLEUM IN CONGO'S EXPORTS (in rVAV 10) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Total exports 19.7 29.3 59.7 50.2 50.5 of which: oil 1.1 9.6 38.5 27.9 31.0 Oil as % of total 6 33 64 56 61 Source: IMF and IBRD, WA2DB 72. The fall in oil exports in 1975, together with rising import levels in expectation of higher export earnings, caused an increase in the current account deficit from 8.5 billion CFAF in 1974 to 48 billion CFAF in 1975. Table 14 BALANCE OF PAYNENTS CURRENT ACCOUNT (in CFAF 10') 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Exports (FOB) 20.9 19.7 27.2 62.8 49.5 53.4 /1 Exports NFS 8.8 10.1 11.8 11.2 10.3 n.a. Imports (FOB) 27.3 30.1 28.2 44.6 55.7 77.0 /1 Imports NFS 19.4 23.6 24.6 37.4 49.8 n.a. Resource Balance -17.0 -23.9 -13.8 - 8.0 -45.7 n.a. Net Factor Service Income 4.9 - 4. 5 - 7.5 n.a. Transfers 3.4 4.7 2.3 4.8 5.2 n.a. Current Account Balance -18.5 -23.6 -17.5 - 8.5 -48.0 n.a. Note: /1 estimates derived from IMF Source: 024F and IBRD, WA2DB - J'J A 73. The situation in 1976 was even worse, as the upward trend in imports continued, and exports rose only very slowly. Any increase in oil exports would have an initial effect in improving the external position. ALTERNATIVES PROJECTION OF OUTPUT AND RELATED EFFECTS 74. Past and future production is shown in the Table below: Table 15 SUMMARY OF PRODUCTION AND PROJECTIONS (in 10 tons and 10 barrels) tons/vear barrels/year 1972 323.3 2,221.1 1973 2,092.7 14,038.4 1974 2,448.6 16,821.9 1975 1,789e2 12,291.8 1976 1, 013,176.7 1977 1,540. e 10,579.8 17 2 0 15,389 16,762. Iz LtP 1 100 10 C /. 1979 2,400 2,700 16,488 18,J9 1980 2,200 2,300 15,114 15,801 1981 1,800 2,050 12,366 14,083 1982 1,600 2,050 10,992 14,083 1983 1,200 1,600 8,244 10,992 1984 1,000 1,300 6,870 8,931 1985 800 900 5,496 6,183 Source: IBRD, WA2DB and Petroleum Economics Limited, London 75. Projections of production from both fields are also shown in Tnbls 2.4 and 2.5 of the Statistical Annex. The underlying assumption is that no major discoveries are made and exploited before 1985. -31 - 76. It can be seen that total production is expected to peak again in 1979, as the Loango field reaches capacity, but that it declines from then on. Two projections are given. The optimistic projection assumes that no further major technical difficulties are encountered, and the pessimistic one is based on the failure of Congolese oil production so far to live up to expectations. But in both cases barren new discoveries, or use of additional equipment in Loango production rapidly put in exploitation or possibly additional equipment to the ongoing wells (this still remains an open issue). The present fields are expected to dry out by 1985 - 1987. - 32 - CHAPTER III CHAD's OIL SITUATION AND PROSPECTS CONTENT: ExpFlorati3'On Reserves Royalties and Taxes Production Prospects Domestic Consumption and Refining Marketing of Excess Production Potential Effects of Petroleum Production SUMMARY 77. The central issue in Chad's future economic development is to find new domestic resources to provide the country with the means of accelerating its development. Chad has a limited resource base, mostly agricultural. Efforts at improving cotton productivity, after ten years of development, are now starting to bear fruit. However, a substantial financial effort still needs to be made, particularly in community development in the cotton south, so that cotton productivity programs are translated into real improvements in living standards thereby provid- ing the stimulus for a sustained investment effort by farmers. In the meantime, the net effects of cotton exports on public revenues, because of the need to ostensibly subsidize inputs, will remain small. The development of the livestock sector, on the other hand, is hampered by the aftereffects of the drought (which reduced the herd by 1/3) and by the drain on the economy caused by unrecorded livestock exports over uncontrollable borders. The contribution of this sector to public revenues is small and will only increase slowly over time as the herd is reconstituted and livestock exnorts increasingly come under Govern- ment control. Chad's potential for irrigation is substantial (particularly in the Logone Valley) However, Investment costs per hertare are high and the area presently flooded by the Logone river is relatively under- populated. Efforts at developing Cha1-d'S irrigation potential promise to be expensive and will initially require a substantial volume of funds for ighcostandlowyiel inestents, beyond the scope and investment criteria of Chad's traditional foreign aid donors. Finally at the base of economic activity is a poor and neglected transport inLrastrucLure which will require progressive improvements in line with increasing traffic levels. 78. Clearly, accelerating development in Chad is beyond the pre- sent financial means of public resources. In the last decade, Chad's public finance situation has undergone rapid deterioration, mainly due to heavy military expenditures required to quell the rebellion in North and Eastern prefectures. In view of fixed budgetary resources, the result has been the country's increasing inability to finance recurrent maintenance, essential administrative equipment and capital formation. Chad's dependence on external resources to finance investment as well as consumption is now well established. Additionally, heavy foreign borrowing in the 1973 - 1975 period has exacerbated an already precarious external debt situation. At present, the Government considers that stabilizing an already unfavorable public finance situation is all that can reasonably be achieved. 79. In addition to precipitating a public finance crisis, the rebellion, particularly in the Tibesti area, has virtually excluded all possibilities of conducting mineral exploration in this most promising geological area. Other mineral prospects are unknown. Thus, in the foreseeable future, petroleum production, both for domestic consumption and exports is the only new develop- ment, in the latter case, provided that sufficient reserves are proven to justify the construction of a ninpeline to the sea. Such an outcome would fundamentally alter Chad's development outlook. - 34 - EXPLORATION 80. Continental Oil (CONOCO) started operations in Chad in 1970, after agreeing on exclusive exploration rights and conditions with the Government. In 1971, Shell acquired a 50 percent interest in CONOCO's Chad operations, and Chevron acquired 25 percent in 1974, leaving CONOCO as operator. The group holds two concessions - the Lake Chad Basin permit, and the Chari Basin permit. Originally the area covered was 115 million acres, of which 25 percent had to be relinquinshed in 1971, 50 percent of the remainder in 1974, and 25 percent of the remainder in 1979. The companies agreed to spend $5.5 million in the first five years - in fact they spent $15 million. The expenditure requirements for the second five year period (1974-79), also $5.5 million, had already reached $30 million by the end of 1975. The total amount-spent up to the end of 1976 is believed to be about $45 - 90 million. RESERVES 81. By the end of 1975, CONOCO had completed eight explortionc And two appraisal wells 1/. Of the exploration wells, three were classified as oil wells, but both appraisal wells were dry - perhap 4d4ting c geoloical structures, or small oil pockets. In 1977, at least one further exploration well (Kome 1) struclK oil. Trhe folwn are14- deais on thes four -ells I able 16 DEAIL S n%O N ZT rM A E AXT TPTLT T - LaDie U UJ.J 114 ZLAr LJr ..LL4 WrI.W-3. Name Completed Flow-BI'D lJp L ReeLV (meters) (million of bbls) Kanem I July 1974 - - 150 Miandoum I December 1974 1,660 25.50 3,650 50 Sedigi I June 1975 155 - 3,037 "Oil, gas 3,650 300 condensate" Kome I Early 1977 250 - 450 - - Source: Petroleum Economics Ltd., London 1/ These figures do not tie indirectly with those of AAGP. ROYALTIES AND TAXES 82. Principal licensing terms foresee 12 percent Government royalties on oil production And five percent on natural gas. Royalties are calculated on "ex field value", which is essentially defined as the net value that ComnC receives for third party sales in Chade This would Apparently take - 35 - into account the high transport cost to export markets. Profit taxes are calculated on 50 percent of gross income, defined as follows: "ex-field value" of products sold, less royalties, operating expenses, a depletion allowance equivalent to 27.5 percent the "ex-field value" up to a limit of one half of net profits (but calculated excluding this allowance) and depre- ciation at various rates (from 100 percent for exploration and development wells to 20 percent for pipeline). PRODUCTION PROSPECTS 83. No firm plans for the development of these discoveries have been announced. In view of the distance to the sea (about 2,000 km) large re- serves, estimated at least at 2 billion barrels recoverable woill need to be proved in order to justify the cost of the production infrastructure and a pipeline to the sea for a total cost of ahout 1.0 illion. Alcn a minimum throughput of around 500,000 barrels per day for 10 years would be required. No overall reserve estimates are currently available for ChA Finally, it would appear that preliminary plans have been made for a piple- line through Camer-on, rather than tying into -h Nigian system. flAMV.qTTr rn?JQTTVDTTnM AVIMV 1TTM.r DOMSTI 1COSUMPTIO AN RE_NIN 84. Chad consumes about 70,000 tons/year of refined products (an annual per capita consumption of about 5 gallons), most of which is currently imported from Nigeria's. Port Harcourt refinery involves a long (1,600 kms) expensive journey by rail, road, and ferry to N'Djamena. According to 1974 price structure, transport and distribution costs from North East Nigeria account for 44 percent of CIF costs. Table 17 ENERGY IN CHAD'S IMPORT TRADE (CFAF 109) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total 14.6 14.7 14.8 16.4 19.9 of which: Energy 2.5 3.8 2.2 3.0 3.0 Energy as % of total 17 19 15 18 15 Source: IBRD, WA2DB 85. In view of the importance of the energy import bill, the Govern- ment asked CONOCO to build an imnort - substituting mini-refinery to meet local consumption. The refinery, which has a capacity of 1,700 barrels per day, is simply a filPd refineary as uisad b oI comp,v,4aa n -ie .o4-aF their own -_ ___ - - - - - - - - - j _ _ _ j _ __ - - 36 - on-site petroleum requirements, and, as a result, does not produce the whole range of products. The CONOCO group accepted to proceed with this project and has already called for tenders, the lowest one (in September 1977) established at about US$7.0 million. Completion is scheduled for 1979. The plant's capacity is established at a level to meet domestic consumtpion of heavy fuel oil needed for electricity production (which accounts for about 30 percent of refined products). Since total capacity is above domestic requirements (equivalent to 1,200 barrels per day), an extra 500 barrels per day of refined petroleum will need to be absorbed either by local or foreign markets (see para. 86 below). 86. The refinery will be lnrAted in N'Diamena requirfng the construc- tion from Sedigi of a pipeline estimated to cost US$11.0 million. The Gov- ernment responsible for this portion of the project is attempting to obtain finance at the most favorable terms so that producer prices of the refinery will Lie ke=Pt asO loVw asO possible. D-a enapoce opriiaei financing the pipeline as have been several other potential donors. A US$5.5 million credit is scheduled for FY79. 87. Assocated with the project is the transformation and expansion of electricity generating capacity in N'Djamena and other major centers. When the project was initially discussed with the Bank, the major problem was to find a use for the heavy residual fuel oil. In the absence of marketing outlets for this product, the project would have been uneconomical. Subsequently, a feasibility study on its use for electricity generation yielded positive results. The Government therefore decided to expand and modify the N'Djamena electricity plant and to replace the old plant at Sahr. CCCE and African Development Fund resources have been obtained for this project (project cost, about $1.0 million). MARKETING OF EXCESS PRODUCTION 88. The main obstacle yet to be overcome is marketing of the refinery's excess production. As indicated above, the refinery's production capacity is adjusted to the requirements for producing enough heavy residual oil for elec- tricity production (1,500 barrels per day). However, recorded imports are equivalent to about 1,200 barrels per day. The Government foresees that part of the excess production will increasingly be sold in Chad, replacing unrecorded -imnorts. Also. in view of the difficult supply situation in Northern Nigeria and Northern Cameroon, the Government is confident that part of Chad's surplus production will he mArketed in these countries. In this respect, the crucial factor remains the level of producer prices in Chad. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTION 89. While the minirefinery will not produce the full range of petroleum products required in the country (aviation fuel and expensive additives wIll be imported), petroleum refinering in Chad could make a major contribution in reducing Chad's resource gap, isolating the country from escalating international energy prices and protecting the country from discontinuities - 37 - in supplies which have been experienced in the past few years. Should sub- stantial reductions in petroleum prices in N'Djamena be forthcoming, the cost of electricity production, transport and irrigation would at least be sta- bilized with important induced effects on overall economic activity. Addi- tionally, the margin for increasing fuel taxes, with considerable budgetary effects, would be enhanced. Since a large portion of fuel tax revenues are earmarked for the Road Fund, the Government would obtain the additional resources for road maintenance and improvements, thereby reinforcing the Bank Group's own efforts at establishing road maintenance in Chad as a going concern. - 38 - CHAPTER IV CAMEROON'S OIL SITUATION AND PROSPECTS CONTENT: Summary Exploration Discoveries and Expected Production Energy Consumption and Refining - 39 - SUMMARY 90. It appears that Cameroon's policies in attracting investors into the exploration and development of oil have on the whole been prudent, in view of the diversity and (presumably) competition in the granting of conces- sions and operating rights. Expectations of production have not been inflated and the Government has been cautious in its anticination of foregn exrhange and public revenue. However, the experience demonstrates the importance of maintaining a stable environment to support an appronriate rate of development. Bank intervention could help sustain investor confidence and stability in policies for the further development of petroleum resources. At present, production is expected to represent only a modest share of the country's exports. T?.PT.nR AT1T lTqzrnI'TF TV A1M J?VJDVr1&9 DDnnTT rTnT EXPORTIN DISCO-E RIES AN EXPECTE PRODUCTIONJV 91. So fr seven exploration wells and two development wells have been drilled. All the wells drilled in 1972-74 were drilled by Elf/Shell Oil in the Rio del Rey permit. In 1975, Mobile and Gulf commenced drilling in their permit areas with Mobil drilling two dry wells and Gulf one (see Statistical Annx Ta11 L I). 9. Results for 1976 are incomplete but it is known that overall ex- ploration to date has located two oil fields situated in the Rio del Rey permit area, both of which are currently under development. In addition, Shell Oil reports that its 1976 program was encouraging resulting in the discovery of new accumulations and the extension of several previous dis- coveries. Oceanic and Norminoil expect to commence drilling operations in 1977. 93. Two fields Biboundi and Kole are at present put in exploitation. The fields are located within 25 kilometers of each other and about 30 kilo- meters offshore. Crude from both fields is expected to be about 30o API with a low sulphur content of between 0.54 - 0.35 percent which would be relatively unusual since low sulphur content has traditionally been associated with lighter crudes. In addition, the small Logbaba gas field, which was discovered over 20 years ago, is now being developed by Elf. It is expected to produce about five - six million cubic meters a year and will supply the nearby town of Douala. - 40 - Table 19 TENTATIVE ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED PRODUCTION (in 000' barrels/day and tons/year) Biboundi Kole Biboundi Kole b/d b/d t/y t/y 1976 - - 1977 * - 1978 ~ * in0,000 * 1,500 1970 * 15,000 * 2,150 Notes: * Unknown 1. Biboundi is expected to commence production late 1977 or early 1978. 2. Kole is expected to commence production early 1978 at a planned rate of 8,000 barrels per day, building up to 15,000 barrels per day by mid 1978. Source: Petroleum Economic Limited, London ENGERGY CONSUMPTION AND REFINING 94. Table 4.3 of the Statistical Annex illustrates the estimated energy demand pattern. For the period 1973-75, product demand was broken down into approximately 33 percent gasoline, 20 percent kerosene and 40 percent fuel oil with lubes and other products making up the balance. This pattern is unlikely to be significantly changed by the forthcoming availability of natural gas on account of the limited quantities envisaged. 95. At present all products have to be imported, although there are plans to construct a 30,000 barrels per day refinery at Victoria. C.F.P. Has recently (March 1977) signed an agreement to provide technical service for this project on a fee basis. Under the latest agreement, ownership will be asfollorws: Cameroon Government65% CFP 16% *rn 0 Litwin 3% Texaco 3% .- 41 - FPdstnk reni-rements are 1 Ike1 y to be met by Shell/E1f Rio del Rey production, although an agreement could be made for exporting this low sulphur crude and importing a lower quality one. 96. If the refinery is to operate at, or near, capacity, a large portion of output will have to be exported. No construction date has been announced, nor any financing details made available. I. n STATISTICAL ANNEX - 43 - GABON STATISTICAL ANNEX Exploration Licenses Table 1.1 Exploration and Development Activity Table 1.2 Offshore Permits Held Table 1.3 Reserves and Cumulative Production Table 1.4 Estimated Production by Fields 1970-1976 Table 1.5 Production by Operating Companies 1970-1976 Table 1.6 Refining Capacity Table 1.7 Gabon Fiscal Terms Table 1.8 Oil Production and Revenues Table 1.9 Export Trade 1967-1976 Table 1.10 Import Trade 1967-1976 Table 1.11 Current Account Balance of Payments 1967-1976 Table 1.12 Financing of Current Account 1967-1976 Table 1.13 - 44 - Tl"-1-e 1.1 AniÅin XTVATINTnLw E T SE OTIER AREA NAME OPERATOR COMIANIES (km2) Ogooué 25,077 Grand Large, Paka Marin And Ndiuii Marin Elf (100%) 11,674 Ogooué Banio Elf ( 60%) Gulf (40%) 866 Rgc Bassn Elf ( 50%) Chevron (50%) 7,079 OgoouéeCaa Elf ( 30%) SNEA (20%) 9,200 Shell (50%) Mayumba Elf ( 20%) Shell (50%) 950 Gulf (30%) Assoua E ( 0) U.nnown , Iguela Mayumba (a) Elf ( 20%) Unknown 1,850 (b) Elf ( 25%) Unknown Libreville Elf ( 25%) Shell (50%) 5,000 --~ ~ ~ ~-l f -i ~nwN -~ Ogooué Nyemba Elf ( 50%) SNEA (50%) 3,7 § End 1976 Note: It is possible that this list of exploration licenses is incomplete. Source: Economics -Petroleum Ltd., London - 45 - Table 1.2 GABON EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 1972 - 1975 1972 1973 1974 1975 A. Exploration Wells Oil 5 3 2 4 Gas 1 1 - - Dry 11 11 11 19 Total 17 15 13 23 B. Development Wells Oil 28 27 41 16 Gas - 1 - Dry 2 1 5 10 Total 30 29 46 26 Total Wells Completed 47 44 59 49 C. Footage Drilled ('000 ft.) Exploration 157 125 317 180 Development 25 223 107 211 Total 182 348 424 391 Source: American Association of Petroleum Geologists - 46 - Table 1.3 GABON OFFSHORE PERMITS HELD JAR E Å NAME OPERATOR Km2 Grand Large Elf 8,767 Paka Elf 1,396 Sette Cama Shell/Elf 935 Mayumba grands fonds Shell/Elf/Gulf 950 Libreville marin Shell/Elf/Gulf 3,250 Iguela-Mayumba Shell/Elf/Gulf 3,050 Atlantique Shell 16,847 Atlantique profond Gulf 69,600 Banc de Prince Unknown Unknown Loboue-marin Petrogab 2,250 Ogooue-marin General American 2,114 Onang-marin Petrogab 1,980 Nyanga-main General American/ 1,868 in< cnhn"f ECI ul a~It a i Gbnn Combe-marIn MaW2ra,2 Source: UBRD, WA2DB - 47 - Table 1.4 GÅBON RESERVES AND CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION CUMULATIVE RESERVES PRODIUCTION DATE OF STARTING RESERVES mn. bbl to 7/1/76 PRODUCTION FIELD 000 T 1/2 1/2 mn. bbl 3 1957 Clairette 3,700 26.5 26.6 1957 Ozouri (631) (4.5) (4.5) 1957 M'Bega (1,185) (8.5) (8.5) 1957 Alewana (51) (0.4) (0.4) 1958 Lopez S. 1,146 8.2 8.5 IQ59 Animba (175) (1.3) (1.3) 1959 Tchengue 3,600 25.8 23.2 1960 Batanga (838) (6.0) (6.0) 1961 Simany (47) (0.3) (0.3) 1961. Bembo-Kotto (75) (05) (0 .5) 1961 Lopez N. 2,491 17.8 17.4 1962 Anguille 13,000 93.1 64. 5 1963 Tchengue Océan 1,200 8.6 6.1 19 76 4 Por a-Gntn Ic6a 2,a 20. 13.1 1967 Gamba-Ivinga 35,460 253.9 170.6 A- JAf11~ - IT v t. 12 et^ 196,9 Anguille 1.E . 6,30 45. 27. 1969 Anguille S.W. 145 1.0 1.1 1971Ang-ui1e N.NT. 63J 4.5 41i 1971 Torpille 6,500 46.5 29.6 1973 Grondin 25,200 180.4 72.4 1974 Mandaros 9,000 64.4 13.8 1974 Lucina 2,000 14.3 6.8 1974 Doree 400 2.9 0.6 1974 Barbier 14,000 100.2 22.3 1975 Pageau 5,000 35.8 0.0 1975 Girelle 10,000 71.6 2.6 1976 Bråme 2,000 14.3 0.5 1976 Gonelle 2,000 14.3 --- 1976 Maron 400 2.9 --- 1976 Port-Gentil Sud Marine n.a. n.a. --- TOTAL 150,074 1,074.4 533.1 Notes. ( )~ - field now elausted Source: Elf-Gabon (from Afrique Industrie, June 1, 75; 01 and Gas journal, D e c~_ID - 57 9 -10 7, c- - 480 - Table 1.5 GABON ESTIMATED PRODUCTION BY FIELDS 1970 - 1976 (in 103 b/d) Elf-Gabon 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Anguille 24 27 23 28 28 14 10 Anguille N.E. 13 12 13 12 13 8 9 Anguille N.N.E. 1 3 2 2 2 2 Anguille S.W. 1 l 1 Barbier 14 32 28 -Bantanga 1 Breme 3 Clairette 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 Doree i Girelle 10 Grondin ~ 30 60 66 64 Lopez N. 4 5 5 6 6 3 2 Lone S. 1 1 1 Mandaros 4 22 24 Pe. Gentil 5 4 3 4 4 3 2 Tchengue 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 Tcheg Ocean 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 Torpille 7 15 10 il 12 14 Total 58 65 71 99 150 168 173 Shell-Elf Gamba 37 35 33 29 30 22 19 Ivinga 13 15 21 23 22 21 20 Total 50 50 54 52 52 43 39 Shell-Gulf-Elf Lucina Marine 14 il Total Gabon 108 115 125 151 202 225 223 Snirce: Economics Petroleum Ltd.. London - 49 - Table 1.6 GABON PRODUCTION BY OPERATING COMPANIES 1970 - 1976 (in 103 b/d) Shell-Gulf Elf Gabon Shell Gabon Elf Total 1970 58 50 108 1971 65 50 115 1972 71 54 125 1973 99 52 151 1974 150 52 202 1975 168 56 1 225 1976 (estimated) 168 47 8 223 Notes: 1. The Government has a 25 percent financial interest in both companies. 2. Until end 1971 Mobil has a small interest in Elf Gabon production. 3. After 1975, various other companies have a total interest of about 5 percent in Elf-Gabon production. 4. Elf has a 50 percent interest in Shell Gabon. Source: Economics Petroleum Ltd., London - 50 - Table 1.7 GABON REFINING CAPACITY SOGARA 1/ COGER 2/ Port Gentil Port Gentil 1970 16,000 1971 17,000 1972 17,000 1973 17,000 1974 17,000 1975 20,000 1976 20,000 1977 20,000 20,000 1/ Soc4AtA Cabonis de Ra.fFi"n"Og (S0rGARA) wasc originally ownedc as follows: 5 percent each: Gabon, Chad, Cameroun, Zaire, Central African Empire 18.75 percent each: CFP, Elf. 11.66 percent Mobil, 11.39 percent Shell, 5.60 percent Texaco, 3.27 percent Petrofina, 3.08 percent BP and 2.50 percent AGIP. In 1973, Gabon acquired the shares of the four other states and purchased an additional 5 percent prorated over the other share- holders. The ownership is therefore: 30 percent: Gabon 70 percent: Major Oil Companies 2/ Compagnie Gabon Elf de Raffinage (COGER) is owned 30 percent by Gabon and 70 percent by Elf. It was set up to expand the existing Port Gentil refinery from a capacity of 20,000 b/d to 40,000 b/d. This expansion was due to be completed by the end of 1976. It is not clear howthe dual ownership will function in practice. A bitumen plant with a capacity of 10,000 tons p.a. and owned by Sogara, was put on stream in May 1975. Source: Economics Petroleum Ltd., London - 51 - Table 1.8 GABON FISCAL TERMS ($/barrel) Elf SHELL 290 Mandli 316Gamba A. Basis of Calculation Posted Price 14.31 14.81 less Discount: 10% Elf 1.43 : 15% Shell 1.48 Tax Base 12.88 13.33 less 20% Royalty 2.58 2 .7 less-Estimated Operating Costs - - (including depreciation) .2 4.8 Gross Profit for tax purposes 6.10 5.81 73% tax 4.45 4.24 B. Government Revyenue Royal ties 2.*58 2.67 Tax 4.45 4.24 Total 7.03 6.91 C. Company income Commercial Price. 12.60 13.00 less Operating Costs 4.20 4.85 less Payment to Government 7.03 6.91 Income Estimated to Comoany (a) 1.37 1.24 Notes: 1. Postings and Commercial Prices in effect as of January 1, 1977. 2. Operating costs assumed unchanged from 1976 and include 70 cents/ barrel "diversified investment" cost. This latter programme has channelled a portion of company profits into other areas such as pulp and amonia manufacture and sugar refining. 3. Gabon has a 25 percent financial interest in both companies. Source: Economics Petroleum Ltd., London Table 1.9 GABON OIL PRODUCTION AND REVENUES (7.16 barrele /tonne) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 :1982 1981 1984 1985 PRODUCTION (ba tonnes) (id-8 bigh estimate) TOTAL 5,423.4 5,78%.8 6,303.8 7,597.7 10,202 11,313 11,325 11,250 10,700 9,800 69m 9,500 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 <boo barrels) 38,832 41,419 45,135 54,400 73,046 81,001 81,087 80,550 76,612 70.168 6 i,.440 68,M0 7-L 71,00 n 71f600 (1978-85 lov estimate) TOTAL 10,700 9,800 8-00 .7,500 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 (ooo' barrele) 76,612 70,168 6p,860 53, 700 j 21,482 4. 320 _7É6 GQVT. REVENUE <1978..85 biglh'estimate) RåYALT"Es 12.7 15.5 97.1 162.0 188.1 205.2 16.2 189.6 l 186.1 210.5 236.6 253.1 260.7 289.4 INCOME TAX 7.3 10.2 73.5 243.0 298.4 326.4 38516' 352.1 3145.5 390.8 439.3 470.1 484.o 537.6 TO1TAL ( million) n,a. n.a. 20.0 25.7 170.6 405.0 486.5 531.6 . »O.W 541.7 Q11.6 60fl 6f 723.2. 1 827.0 AVERAM PE£ BARREL TAKE n.a. n.&. 0.44 0.47 2.34 5.00 6.00 6.60 7.19 7.72 8.25 8.84 9.44 10.10 10.82 11.55 ROYALTER 165.2 189.6 175.7 .166.1 118.3 75.9 .54.2 28.9 INCOMNJ TAX 385.6 2.1 326.4 308.6 219.7 141.0 100.7 53.8 TOTAL 2:5_2.08 7.7~33 TTL.8 _ __ 5h. ). 474.7 -4ý. 216.9 122 82.7 INFLATION IN OIL FRICES 100 109 117 125 134 144 15 164 175 Notes 1. High case, sec text Bection 8&. Lov case, see text fBection Bb. Both casta are theoretical acsumptions based OnlýY on pant trenda and official forecaota. 2. Proportiong of tax ta royaltie0 Pr=n 1976 to 1980 are t4en from the Third DQvloPnnt Plan. frm 1981 onWarda [tt ti lett at 65/35. 3. Inflatton in oil prIcef are fran the World Bank EDP:. CkoernmMt revenung are asaumed to r1ef in line with world oil pricee. Source: IMF mission, Third Developnent Plan, IBRD minsstn -�з- а О �3 � я"� ������t, � �. : д 2 �ал�& 1 '� ° - а i Ф/� О СΡ�О� �Iд3 � Wi�'1н.i+! I1w �от � о��iм .iн S n nnнг�tФыO�nnaФ�n� тн� о н�n� � �ФViПОваl�нн О W l� �.I s �'�н' `�"db`O �•,-• н� $� а а I � � �q 9�уΡ� _ � �122GнY�X�no I$ ! о�$а 1t '� � � ����^�I � � �I � i Яj �н�S� � � �� �I� � ��нV��� ! 1 i } а$ р вв !it R sгa�QSta�1 иJ1 е sI 'в ь п ааег�л�' FI W а FI �^ в i � Р.в Й � � i!Л ' � п лн нIЭ � �������". а � и�.: . i н� � t �и ��t���$�I уΡ� � `�) > j И н АЧ V V SI3 i 1д�д�оq!$io . � л $ j паа d1н д � п � I 5 I 3 ; � ��_ŭ��Se� ��]1 �е� �N� � � > У Й ан н � в1 .i цf� н • � г п �рΡ �.уΡ в Ф �{1 У! � � � 8Б ���н�nаiОн � I � � � � ��� нс 8 п � �уΡ °1 11 �Ir ! � ����ag�I п'1 а ëI I � нl.9i � в�.w'tйнйй он $ ! sпн ii � � я ! я я��°��"1 � � �� '� н �н п �л � � У � н н .а Ф'� �'7 а 1 нIн � гнRдн��а�� 1i ; sжн w 1 �. 3 5t �l�RSь^ь`8,1 �У � н� �i.маоунs тQJ7 а г ° �I� j А Фн w ��'1 Ф �I w � 3i= н амп �Т н �i�^н� J 1а° F wан � i .. 1`I � � а!( О i7� � й Гn:7 � й' � � $ Ф Ф.i О� 24д1 У О � i i р�0�0 � $ � 74di �F I� �,q•p н у п н� н п .��i н � 1 -- � � � ь �� � � �� г_ П ��. �С� �I s� 7� � � d�se4� $1 � _ а1 �� � �'�����вs n) �� � �� te01a 1.1.1 ОАвоы тиwхт тлпёо 196Т �� 397Ь (Уоlите 1а 10Э 4пплее � 11л1ие 1n CPAF 106) l96Т 19Е�8 1969 lMO 19Т1 19TZ 197Э 19Т4 1973_ _ 1976 Уоlите Уе1ие Уо3те Уцие Volume Va1ue Уоlипе Уе1ие Volume Уп1ие Уоlита Ys1ue Усlите Уе1иа Уоlито Ул1ие У'оlите Уе1ие Уоlиою Vs3ue �лгеу В2.4 3,030 12.2 295 12.4 ;10 10.5 330 14.2 ° д26° 15.4 440 1Е1.2 54fi п.в. , п.л,� п.е, п.е.. роод 3Т.0, г.б75 34.5 2,Т05 Э7.5 г,В7о 40.6 Э.1г5 4о.5 Э„аоо 48.6 4,625 41�.8 4,4Э5 70.4 7.Мц 1г.59Э 14,23b equipme�nl, cemen! 5о.г 6,425 51.9 6,040 55.9 В,175 7о.о В,Е16о ЬВ.о 10„865 ' 4Э.5 1Э,72о 59.Э 14,о7о а.л. ал., Э9,4Т0 48,11% 0{her 44.8 6,5г0 56.1 Ь,В95 63•В 8_8Э5 70.0 9,9Э5 6Э.5 11„019 110.9 15__Э20 о.л. 15.179 a.s, n.s. пл. а.а. Огоее 'nntsl 16,650 15.9Э3 20.190 22,230 25,�310 Эд.105 Э4,2Э0 71_3Э0 89.780 120,042 АдJие[тепСв to irecorded � . imporc �рsуоепtв а.л. Э,5Э7 д.бб4 5,Э4'! 4„310 5.3Э5 17,222 ' Y4,7g�1 •38,144 п.е. � хес т1е1 а.л. 19_4Т2 24,854 27_5'Г7 29��620 Э9.?40 ' �1,,�? 96_121t 127.924 п.е. . хоьее: Е е eetlmelе по оГГ1с1а1 ielаtlецг.е have lюеп риЫlеЬад for 1qf4 8оигсе: Iл 2оте Ргепс„ 1967 - 19Т3, IMQ+ nlваlоп, M+rch{в 7Sорlглик ллд I14' lntarmtloael riamcllsl Btsti.etlce Table 1. 12 GMN CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (1967 1976) (in CFAF 10 Current Account 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 3.972 1973 1974 19 75 1976 Exports of Goods & N.F.S.- 45. 1 51.3 57.6 70-3 119.0 95.6 216x 232-8 n. a. Exports MDSE (FOB) 39-7 42.6 48.2 6,2.5 67.6 84.7 204.2 210. 7 215.5- Exports N.F.S. 5-7 8.7 9.4 r. 8 ll.4 10.9 11. 8 212. 1 n.a. Imports of Goods & N-F-S,, 39.3 51.0 54.6 513.0 ,,6.o 95.4 iMa 233.2 n.a. imports MDSE (FOB') 19: 24.9 27.6 214? 7 2 Z4.4 96.1 128.4 14ga Imports N.F.S. 19 26.1 27.0 2 :3 IM .0 70-6 la . 8 n. a. Resource Balance 6.1 0.3 3.0 11?-3 3.0 0.2 49.-3 - o.4 n.a. Net Factor Service Income 5-5 -6.5 -7.3 4 -1.0.2 -16.2 47-8 -30-2 n.a. InteresL Payments 5-5 -4.1 -4.8 -11.0 - 7.7 -12.0 -21.9. -21-3 n.a. Workers Remittances n. a. -2.4 -2.5 -,,?. 4 - 2.5 - 4.2 - 5 -9 - 8.9 n.a. Net Unreqaited Transfers 0. -i 3.1 3.6 12.0 6.2 4.4 3 -7 6-7 n.a. Current Account Balance 1. IL -3.1 -0.7 14.9 - 1.0 -il.6 25 -2 -2-3. 9 n.a. Notes: 1. Export Revenues From oil 8.9 10. 7 13.0 14.4 22-3 -10.8 33.1 143.1 150-3 18o.4 - crude 8.9 10. 4 12.6 13.8 21.6 1416.0 27.5 130-6 138. 4 155.3 refined - 0.-. 4.8 o.4 o.6 0.7 5.6 12.15 11.9 25.1 2. Estimates derived from IMF Trading Partner Information Source: World Bank E.P.D., IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook 1 67-1974 Table 1.13 GABON FINANCING OF CURRENT ACCOUNT (1967 - 1976) (in CFAF 109) Capital Account 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _1972 127 1274 197L -L6 Direct Private Investment 0.3 6.8 -0.2 4.3 -4.1 -5.5 9.4 16.5 n.a. Government Medium & Long Term Liabilities -0.2 1.1 1.9 3.9 2.2 10.1 12.1 29.1 n.a. - Disbursements n.a. 1.8 3.2 5.6 7.4 18.3 16.1 39.6 n.a. - Amortization n.a. -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -5.2 - 8.2 -4.0 10.5 n.a. Private Long Term Liabilities -0.9 -3.6 0.4 -3.3 0.8 3.9 6.6 11.6 n.a. Net Short Term Capital -0.2 -0.7 0.4 -4.5 3.9 7.1 -41.1 -19.3 n.a. Capital NEI - Long Term Assets -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 --1.2 - 1.0 - 3.,9 n.a. Capital Account Balance -1.2 3.4 2.0 -0.4 2.3 14.4 -14.0 34.0 n.a. Allocation of SDRs. - - 0.4 0.4 0.4 - - - Reserves Liabilities -- - - - - - - n.a. Assets - SDRs. - - -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 - - - n.a. - Reserve Position in IKF - - -0.3 - - - - - n.a. - Foreign Exchange etc. 1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -1.0 - 4.8 -12.4 - 9.9 na. Net Errors & Omissions -0.9 0.4 0.0 -2.6 -2.3 2.0 1.2 - 0.2 n.a. Source: World Bank E.P.D., IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook 1967--1974 CONGO STATISTICAL ANNEX Exploration Licenses Table 2.1 Exploration and Development Activity 1972-1975 Table 2.2 Estimated Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves Published Proved Recoverable Table 2.3 Estimated Oil Balance 1975-1985 Table 2.4 Oil Production and Revenues Table 2.5 Internal Demand Pattern and Consumption Table 2.6 Export Trade 1967-1976 Table 2.7 Import Trade 1967-1976 Table 2.8 Current Account Balance of Payments 1967-1976 Table 2.9 Financing of Current Account 1967-1976 Table 2.10 Table 2.1 CONGO EXPLORATION LICENSES § Other Date Size Name, Operator Companies Issued (km2) Mandingo Maritime Agip (65%) Elf (35%) 1968 3,364 Pointe Noire Elf (65%) Agip (35%) 1968 3,704 La Lorme Elf (63.75%) State (36.25%) 1973 3,655 Haute Mer Elf (63.75%) State (36.25%) 1973 3,867 R L A UL A LIe 4 A-s at end 17 Note: Getty, as operator, was awarded a "seismic option" in 1975 to undertake a deep sea geographical survey of the Congolese coast. Three other companies , Phillips, Agip and Hispanoil, have equal shares in this project. Source: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., London - 59 - Table 2.2 CONGO EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPEENT ACTIVITY 1972-1975 1972 1973 1974 1975 A. Exploration Wells Oil 3 1 1 - Gas - 1 - - Dry 4 2 5 4 Total 7 4 6 4 B. Development Wells Oil 35 13 3 33 Gas -- - - - Dry 1 - 1 Total 36 13 3 34 Total Wells Completed 43 17 9 38 C. Footage Drilled 116j358 45,378 55,055 85,558 Source: American Association of Petroleum Geologists. - 60 - 600 TaD.Le 2.3 CN O AL.LrILATED CRUD kL N UL' GAS RSERVE PUBLISHD PROVED RECVERABL OIL NATURAL GAS END YEAR MILLION MILLION Barrel Tnnq 1/ . cu.r-etre 2/ 1970 44-0-7- 1973a 4,888 75100002,2 1944,874 707 £,000,00 2,32 1975 2,450 3,UUU,UUU 1976 285 41 7,000 198 Notes: / 1 ton approx. 6.937 barrels 2/ 1 cu. metre - approx. 35.3 cu. ft. Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Petroleum Economics Limited, London and IBRD, WAIIDB. - 61 - Table 2.4 CONGO ESTIMATED OIL BALANCE 1975 - 1985 (in 000' of barrels/d) 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985 Indigenous Crude Oil Production 37 39 26 1/ 63 61 43 7 Less Maximum Indigenous Crude Supplies to Pointe Noire - - 5 18 18 18 7 Min`imu ru de Exports 37 39 21 45 43 2 - Products Output from Indigenous Supplies - - 5 17 17 17 7 Less Domestic Demand 2/ 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 Products Exports (Imports) (4) (4) 1 12 12 12 - Total Exports (Imports) Crude 37 39 21 45 43 25 - Product (4) (4) 1 12 12 12 - 33 35 22 57 55 37 - Notes: 1/ Assumes no production from Luanga until 1978. 2/ Assumes growth rate of 6 percent p.a. Source: Petroleum Economics Limited, London ТаЫв t,5 СОН�ОО O7L PRA1ц1CTI0H А1Ф HEVBHUFB �i� �� �! � � 1�� � � � ��1 �� � �4 � PHDIKR:T70�M '000 1.опдее T151'1 1 S hlgh евСlтеtе)• . omdrwde Э�гЭ.Э 2,о4г.7 2.44В.б 1,789.г 1,9уВ.о 1,41ю 1,гоо 900 3оо г5о 25о to.neo - - _ - _ - _ - 11ю 1,г4о _1,Воо 1,iЭоо 1_ВСо_ 1;fbo 1;Ьоо _1,3оо 9оо тосц ЭрЭ.Э 2,о4г.7 г,448.b �i,789.2 1,91В.о 1.51ю г,44о 2,7оо г,Эоо 2,о5о г,о5о 1,боо 1,Эоо - 9� (.OOOesrirele) 2,2г1.1 14,оЭ3.4 16,821.9 1г,г9у.8 уЭ,17Ь.7 1о,5•79.В 16,�.8 1Е1,549 15,��1 14,oB3.g 14,оВ3.5 1о,99е Е1,931 6,1ВЭ !'•},l,�'1�,95 L.,и еп1!.mte)л , �mdrsude . 1,000 600 400 2о0 2!00 _ _ Losngo 1,24о 1.,В00 1,1Э00 1_600_ 1,400 1_�200 ].,000 Е100 7'оСв1 2,240 2,400 2,7?00 1,В00 1,600 1,200 ],000 800 ('000 Dыrele) � 15,38В.В 1Е�,4В8 15,:114 12,Эб6 30,5q2 8,244 Ei,870 5,4уб ODVBцDU71T RBVFЯl16 � T�9�5�n оiитвсе) 1 Аоувltlев бЫ 5.25�э г7.г51 г1.388 гг,9г7 21,11i0 3Ь,54Э 4y.219 39.:344 Э7 �Э 4о,1ЭВ ' 3Э,5гб г9,го4 2y,�f4o твсот tв: - 1,1д4 5Т,867 41,546 44,5ЭТ Э5,9'I1 62,190 7?1,64о 67,л54 6Э,939 68,446 gT,158 4д,б56 Эб,789 Other Э�15 - - - - - - _ .. _ _ _ _ _ То[�1 ('ооо=) 9�76 6,36Э 85,ц8 бг,9Э4 67,464 57,1;ц 5�В,7ЭЭ 11Е�,859 габ,45�8 101,542 1oB,g84 до,бЕW • ТЕ1,Е160 5В,429 Average раг Ьеггеl take ;F о.4й 0.4'1. g.06 ь 1 �� , . 5.12 5.1г 5.ьо" 5.89 6,3о 6.74 7.21 7.71 8.25 8.83 9-45 )� (197E{-1985 1or emttmsce) � � ' ��� Boyцtiem 3Э,548 3Bi,417 37,634, ЭЭ.оу7 31.327 'г5.144 г2,465 19,�гЭЬ Imcame Твк 57,о92 65,457 . 64,f!Э4 56,142 5Э,421 �42,f169 3EV,197 Э2,'7о1 О[Ает _ . То[е1 ('ооо =) 5а,б4о 1оЭ�,874 1oi,1ЭG8 89,159 84,Т4В ЬВ,о1Э Ьо,Е�бг 51,�Э3Т . dverege рег ьаггеl t.te �� 5.8Э Ь.Эо 6..74 7.21 Т.71 В.25 В.ВЭ 9.45 IиПаtlы� 1n о11 ргlсаа ° (1977 : 100) , 1(Ю 1о9 у17 �i25 1Э4 143 15Э 164 1Т5 Но[ее•� 1. Pro�ecClone аввите no mr�or rvev dlecoverlee , � 2. НlBh ргодисtlсю astlmteв авеiите в relatlve ].eck о[ 1Che sort of techлlcal d1,[tlcultles rЫch hnve ргаvlоивЪу Ьаеа[ о11 productlon 1т the Congo. 1ov eetLmtee sesume tAe,t ttюse d1tPlcu;ltleв Ьлrе not уеС Ьееп сотрlе[е1у reвolred. Э. 197Ь ravenuea� Asve Епеn Ьвеед on tAe еате rmtes se a5175 Ьес�sиве 1t sema ш�11te1y �LAat �he Сы�gоlаве Cove,тment vцц Da в1D1е to тлkе cho October 1976 fnr.reaaes reCroactlva. 4. 1lorever, 1t 1в� 11ke1y tAвt lпсоте апд юувltу таtев .дц De ге(вад 1n 19ТТ, to 40 ргкетt snd 17,pa�пent reepecClvoly, од tbe o[her Мпд, the сотриlеп v1ц рмЬаDlу megotlet.e hlgheir deprосlstlon вlуоvисев, ео clat "take° r111 lпегеаве trem =5•12 со ='j.40 (lnetead о1' ;5.4Т пв 1п tA�e CovervmenC дег:гее). , 5. Oovernment геvепиев ага вое�ед to Во ир 1п 1,1nв m1W о11 ргlов lncreaeeв. � 6. 011 ргlсе proJectlone иеед атт hom the IBHD, BPD, д1о вав t1Ье ргlее оС о1у 1n сопвlсиt tenms пос charцsing tbrough 19В5. ' 7. 6,87 Asrrele�tonne ' 9„ BotA аввее аге [heoret.lcnl ввпитрсlыье Ьпвед only оп pael tronde ид о[Г1с1е1 torecaete. 3лигсе: fBRП, ЧПIiDB 63 Table 2.6 CONGO INTERNAL DEMAND PATTERN AND CONSUMPTION A- Rat4ynntpA Enprov npmand Pattprn Viatural Gas Primary Electricity ion inn B. Estimated Oil ConsjMtion 1k 1A Z .3 LVU 1^1^ no-1-0 I Ffj j -LV 1974 3,400 1975 3,800 Note: To date all this product has been imported. However, a 20,000 b/d state-owned refinery has been constructed at Pointe Noire. S . ource: Petroleum Economics Limited, London �rетв г.7 conW 7ахюЕзт т7зАnе 7967 - 1у'1б (Уоlите tn 103 ton�ms ; Уе,1ие 1п oFAF 106) :гоаисtи 1967 196f1_ _ 1969 _ 197о _ 1971_ _ 1972 _ 1�Э73 _ 1974_ _ 1975 _ 1976 Уоlита Уа1иа У'оlгте Уа1иа Volime Value Уоlита Уа1ие Vоlгике Уа1ив Va11we Увцие Уоlите Ув1ие Уоlгте Уе1иа Уо1и®е Va].ие Уоlите Уа1иа '----"--'------°-""'--"--'--°°---'-----"'------.'-----°"--"'-""-'-'--'---at c�urrent tе[тв--'----'-°-°----"-----°"------.'---'---"---"-"""----""---'---°'-----'-°----'---"---""""-- С'гика ои. Еп 0о0 сопе Эд.4 9о� 55•Э бо 31,8 L5 17.2 бо 19.7 1до 1WB,o 1,1г9 2,о51.о 9,Ы8 г,�44г.о Эд,499 1,77о гТ,9о4 1,852 31,огю 1л ОЕЮ Ьаггацв Г.Ь,В'7 2ЬЗ.8 379.J 218.4 118.2 1Э5.4 ц4,09о.0 36,'776 12,159 12,7г3 Т1тЬег 383.7 4.960 442.0 6,29о 472.8 6,160 32b.i 5.125 35г.3 6,14о Э17.4 7,Ek�B 292.6 8,Ь2д ��г72,2 9,044 2Ь2.1 Т,958 � 162.Э 6,7fi4 FbCaeh - - 44.7 225 137.5 765 гВ9.4 1,490 3"�Ч Э,459 Эзо.9 Э,гЭЭ 4о5.7 �5,9д8 3�82.о 8,1о1 37о.2 5.9ц7 SWger 59.7 1,Зоо� 8•д гЕЭ0 29.9 Э75 1Е1.г 710 32.7 l,о70 57.0 1,7.25 84.о 1,371 ЬЬ.О 2,628 43.1 1,32Э 42.о 1,106 t�ocoa 1.1 135 1,4 2о5 1.г [о5 1,3 28о 1.7 3оо г.1 Э84 г.1 Э45 г.б 715 2.7 564 2,В &,i7 Dlafeonas (оо0 кг¢) 4,154 3,945 4,Э4Э 3.835 1,41;i 1,1iB0 597 805 742 720 ЭЧ2е Э32 413 295 �418 � 80д 434 92г Э27 71Г8 соггее 0.9 14а 1.о 145 Е,2 [бо о.9 155 о.9 1до г.1 цВ2 о.5 167 o.Ff 17Э 1.1 247 1.о 4�i2 Мlвпцапееег ' ' ' ' ' ' ' - ' - - - ' ' 21.Э . 165 г4.7 234 29.2 291 F'е1т karnels 5.0 160� 4.о 15о 2.В 95 1.5 5о г,Э 9о 0,5 51 о.4 41е 1.Э 90 1.1 59 1.о ES5 , 7roыссо о.5 5а о.5 Чо o.S [ЕЭо 0.6 г15 о.В 13о о.Ве 7�34е о.&, 14ге о.9 1о0 о.9 1о9 1.0 1г3 o[bere 95о 2,152 2,395 Ч,258 . Ьбо - 4.<,i96, 3,374 1� 4,342J 2.952 J 3,342 � �� � , С{гоиа M1.al 11.7Э0 ]3.i57 11,'Э8b 12.42Э 1о,9Ьо ' 19.fi90 27_214 �62.552 5Ф,139 5o,77t5 Р�д.1ив[теп[ [о тег.огдед екрог[ paymenle п,а. n.s, п.а. п,а. п,е, Э5 , г,о6Э -г.В0Э 55 - г:15 Ив[ 7ъса1 п.а. п.е. n.n. п.е. n.a. 19,i25 29.277 59,748 5fU.194 50,ЧЕц1 Мцев: � Psrt оГ thn ebortfnll 1в e:aplnlned Ьу s shsrp дгор 1п екраг[а to other U.U.к.A.C. countrLee '�! 7Та утгв ц97`j ид 1976 апе psrtly eatlmated �/ lцрогtа апг Г.о.0. � ;{оигсе: Ls 7.оис Угопс ]l9(7 - 1Ч'/s, 11Эи11 r:con[адс Четоrлпдгт tkr. 804в- С.О.В., Т1о' Vnr1a, Bu11et1n 9ta,l1etlque �,w1e п.9 cOmn иrnв'г �ялпlz 19ь7 - 1тб - ._ � (Уо1и■т 1n 10Э 4�гтев= Уе1ие [о СгАУ 1f�) _ 1967 _ ' • 1968 _ 196у _ 19То _ 1971 _ ' 197г _ i973 _ 197�_ _ 197у _ 1976 Уо1�л1в Уе1иа Yo1we Ув1ие Уо1�та Уцт Уоlитв Ув1ие Уо1ию Ув1ие Уо1и.е Ув1ие Уоlиое Уе1ив Voluse � Уе1ие Уо1ип Уцие Уо1ии Уе1иа Уоод 49.�1 2,900 �? ,О Э.165 SЭ.�В g.0'S5 �.Т 9.105 3Э.1 О,2Ш8 49.2 Э.3ЭЬ уΡг 7 Э.07о Э4.9 2,84о о.е. 'о.е. Еуиl�enL еМ стиерогt �оодв / 7.�Э ,9.Э93 в7.9 9.795 �! �8 8,ц?0 22.В 6,480 ЭО.Э 10,Ы95 27.1 9.ЬТ7 40.7 1Э,Т59 57.0 21,8ЭТ п.е. а.в. �ergy о.е. 01.Э �1 ч9.�Э Ь�'-д ' �.2 39Э bh.0 б�у, 62.6 Т29 44.6 ТТ5 9Э.8 2,BL5 а.е. а.а. омеn �;�_ � п.е. 7о.Э 7,075 42.о 7_2!YS ЭЬ.7 Ь,оЭг Э7.о ЬдiЭg Э5.7 6,381 41.г 10,10Э у9.В 16,д7 а.�[. и.•. -- - - - - - - -- - - -- - - � агоав 'го[е1 о.и. о.в. 20,Ы5 �1.2!К1 1Ь.21о 2i,6:12 '�г0,Э2Э 27.ТЭО hh,2;9� п.е. п... � -- - -- �- - - -- - � Ад�ивЬевп[ Lo мсогдвд ' lеротс реувап[п д.и. а.а. п.а. п.в. п.о. о.и. п.е. о.а. - 7�'ь3 - 6Э5 318 Э8Э o.n. п.в. Нее 7bta1 а.о. . д.е. а.е. ¢.е. о.о. д.п. и.е. а.в. 20.бS7 19_688 г8,г�1В W_622 п.п.• о.в. Ноtев• � IWOrЧ его с.1.Г. 3ource,� U 7sии yrenc, 19Ь7-1�г'/yt t.onf�o ican®1а 1lлtомидив, Мекh 5, 1'97Ь Table 2.9 CONGO CUIRRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE 01? PAYMENTS (1967 iý976) (in CFAF 10'9) Current Account 1967 1968, 196,9 191(0 19,71 1'972 11973 1974 1975 1976 Expoirts ol' Goods & N.F.S. n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a. 29-7 g. 8 -9.0 74.o Exports MDSE (FOB) n.a. n.a. n.a. n. ýL. 20ý. 9 19-7 27-2 62.8 49.5 53.141/ Exports N.F.Sý. n.a. n.a. ri.a. n. EL. 8.8 ID. 1 ILI.8 11.2 10.3 Imports ol' Goodla & N.F.S. n.a. ri.a. n.a. n. a. 46.7 53.7 52.8 82.0 105.5 Imports MDSE (FOB) n.a. n.a. n.a. In. a. 27.3 310-1 28.2 44.6 55.7 77-J/ Irq)orts N.F.S n.a. n.a. n.a. n. (t. 19.4 23.6 ,?4.6 37.4 49.8 IResource Balance n.a. n.a. n.a. n. ik. -17.0 -23.9 -113.8 -8.0 -45.7 Net Factor Service Income n.a. n.a. n.a. n. e. - 4.9 - ý4.4 - 6.o -5.3 - 7.5 Interest Payments n.a. n.a. n.a. n. kk. - 2.3 - :2.0 - 5-0 -4.2 - 6.7 Vorkers Remittances n.a. n.a. ri.a. n. a. - 2.6 - :2.4 - 1.0 -1.1 - o.8 Net Unrequited Transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4 4-7 2.3 4.8 5.2 Current Account Balance n.a. n.a. n.a. n. ik. -18.5 -23.6 -17-5 -8.5 -48.o Notes: Estimates derived from IMF trading pcrtner infomation Source: IMF Ba,lance of Payments Yearbook Table 2. 10 CONGO FINANCING OF CURRENT ACCOUNT (1967 - 1976) (in CFAF 109) Capital Account 1967 1968 196i 1970 1i 11.72 2:7 2 1272 Direct Private Investment n.a. n.a. n.a. n.aL. 13.4 16.7 15.4 11.2 20.9 Government Medium & Long Term Liabilities n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 3.7 2.4 8.3 8.7 - Disbursements n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 5.2 1.9 9.2 U.a. - Amortization n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.2 2.0 0.1 0.9 n.a. Private Long Term Liabilities n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2 0.3 - - 0.8 Net Short Term Capital n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 ý4.5 ..1.6 -2.2 10.7 Capital NfEI n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. - Long Term Assets n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 - 0.1 1.2 - Capital Account Balance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 18.5 25.2 16.3 18.5 41.1 Allocation of SDRs. - - - 0.5 0.4 0.4 - - Reserves Liabilities 0.0 - 0.1 -0.1 - - - - - Assets - SDRs. - - - - -0.4 -0-4 0.0 0.0 0-0 - Reserve Position in IMP 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Foreign Exchange etc. 0.9 -1.2 0.3 -0.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 -4.5 2.2 Net Errors & Omissions - - - - -0.1 -2.1 0.4 -5.5 4.7 Source: IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook 1967-1974 - 68 - CHAD STATISTICAL ANNEX Exploration Licenses Table 3.1 Exploration and Development Activity Table 3.2 Internal Demand Pattern and Consumption Table 3.3 Minirefinery Project - Characteristics of Sedigi Crude Table 3.4 Operating Characteristics of the Projected Mini-refinery Table 3.5 Export Trade 1967 - 1975 Table 3.6 Import Trade 1967 - 1976 Table 3.7 Current Account Balance of Payments 1967 - 1976 Table 3.8 Financing of Cuirrent Account 1967 - 1976 Table 3.9 Table 31 C"nA EXLOATU IN LICE 1rNSES Name of Size* Operator Other Companies Permit ___km) CONOCO (50%) Shell Oil (25%) Lake Chad ) Chevron (25%) ) 174,230 CONOCO shell Oil (25%) Chari ) Chevron (25%) ) * Endq 1974 Source: Petroleum Economics Limited, London - 70 - Table 3.2 CHAD EXPLORATION An DEVELOPMNT ACTIVITY 197'3 1975 A. Exploration Wells 1973 1974 1975 Oil 2 Gas Dry 14 2 Total 4 4 B. Development Wells Oil Gas Dry Total000 Total Wells Completed C. Footage Drilled 0 45,610 37,160 Source: American Association of Petroleum Geologists. - 71 - Table 3.3 CHAD INTERNAL DEMAND PATTERN AND CONSUMPTION A. Estimated Energy Demand Pattern 1970 1974 SolA id Ful - - Oil 100 100 100 100 B. Estim-4ted OiQ onupto 1970 1250 1971 14oo 1972 1100 1973 1100 1974 975 Source: United Nations Table 3. CHAD - HIREFIIERY PROJECT - CIARACTERITICS OF EDIGI CRUDE 00 haracteristics/FraetioniL 910 100-1 15 0 200- D-3 0 0 ( by veight 2.5 5.4 13.8 9.7 9.9 12.7 13.4 31.2 4 by volume 3.1 6.2 114.7 9.9 9.8 12.2 13.0 29.2 Density .6460 .7115 .7600 .7950 .81.85 ..8420 .880 .8660 Octone index without lead 79 70 59 47 - - - Octone index with 0.5 g/liter lead 91.5 83 75 6a - Cetone index - - - 35 53.5 65- Faratin content (% by weight) - - 5 . Asphalt (% by weight) - - - D :roluc-s to lie obtained Irrom refinerit Average density (I by weiLghtF na tural gas 1.0 gs1.ire 1/ 1.5 5.4 13.8 3.7 (total -214.4) .748 diesel fuel - 6.0 9.9 12.7 13.4 (total h2%) .828 heaiy oil residue - - .866 T-">:r!,tes sulphur less than 0.05 % by weight others negligible so that heavy fuel oil can be used directly in electricity generating motors Farrels Der metric ton 7.77 !.ote: 1/ to increase octane index, it to planned to add 20 percent by volume of imported super gasoline. Source: SEERAT - Projet de Hintreffinorie doleoduc du Tehad. Table 3 5 OPERATING CARACTERISTICS OF TiE PROJECTED MINI-REFIMNERY Production Capacity: 200 tons of crude per day or. 1,554 barrels/days Input requirements: Assuming a 3% loan in the refining process, 1,5511 x 1.03 = 1,601 barrels/day Days of production/year: 300 thus requiring 00,116 barrels/year of crude and. yielding h66,200 barrels crude equivalent of refined product. Production of the refineryb_14product (at fall capacity) in MT in Cubic meter Natural gas 1,6I0. 2,229 Untreated gasoline 14,640 19,572 Gasoline mixed with imported super 23,h86 Diesel fuel 25,200 30*1135 Heavy fuel oil §J'20 2117 TOMAL 6o,oo 73,653 Source: SEMRAT - Projet de Miniraffinerie d1oleoduc du Tchad. твьl в 3.6 сlии екРот' чwше 1967 - 1975 � б � (Уоlитв 1п 10Э tомев ; Va1ue .1n CF'AF 10 ) !'.�ducte 1967 _ ' �_ 1969 _ 1 0 _ :19T1 _ 1'�__ 19�_ _ 19;Г4 19Т�_ Уоlите цаlие YoLme Vегlие Volume Уа'lue Уоl�тге Уе1ие Volumr. Уа1ие Volume Va1ur. Уоlите Va1ue 'Volume Уа1ие Уоlите Уе1ие ---'-"-°-' mt current terme -----""-'-----------------"---'--"------------"------------"'.------.'--'--------'------'--"'°--' coc[on 4о,9оо 5,5cr 42,гоо 5,78о 47,5оо 6,�585 39,осю 5,91о 34,ба1 5,гг5 4о,7оо 6,684 36,2оо 6,549 41,2оо ц,49о 47,9оо 1о,54д неаг 6,4оо 7То Ь,Е�2о 741 7,2оо Г78 14,гТо 1,45о 11,9а1 1,4Тб б,гоо 1,o3ES 9,7оо 74Э 6,9оо 1,гоТ З.о0о 525 Llveetосt - (hевдlв) (90,420) (44,i19o) (ЭЬ,Р10) (Э8,410) (6Э.69о) (67,ВТо) (90,8Э0) (;?4,700) (40,300) + - топв г8,4оо 559 1о,Еlоо 23о В,7оо 17о 9,3сю 26о 14,9сх> 41о 16,4оо 57о 21,97о ЬЗВ 5,9оо 361 9,То0 41о Н1д.ев nna ekane ЬТо 89 •i9o 1о1 75о 119 . 8То 1ц 7а> 89 85о цг 1,Э50 ц9 1,211 г12� 1,2ао гго П�ве агвЕlс 95о 111 1,1г50 111 860 ВО 55�0 31 5&) Э9 620 5о 38о 21 176 18 ,250 1В неггоп 4,67о 59 г,ц4о 39 З.о� 59 1,46�о 19 1311 и 1,Э13 12 ЭЭ2 4 94 5 4оо 1о ocner Э.289 345 Э,427 Э55 г,269 г89 2,7EW 319 3,Э1г 399 4,471 7a,i 4,198 731 4,г3Т 8г8 4,5оо 921 3/total В5,329 7,438 66,9'/7 7,357 То,г79 7,!�о ЬВ,г74 8,1а) 66,12Э 7,649 Т0,554 9.1Т1 ЬВ,оВо B,goS �i9,718 14,121 66,95о 12,65Э веехрогtв 926 96 2,7.5г г29 7�D6 76 1,014 119 513 89 4,Э28 75о 4,227 В79 2,322 49В 2,Оа) 460 ду, Crose Tota1 �y�j4 �� у1У-16 8.21Q �j� ' g,гуг:( 4,7В4 14,619. 1Э.1]3 Adjuetment [о гесогаед а� expor[ peymente 2,253 J 2,62о� 'i31� 2,Т66� 4,г30=' 28i� 1,83(r� 1.324� 3.02д'� Net тосаl 9,7В7 10,200 8,'>87 10,9В5 11,967 10,210 11,614 15,943 16, 2 -_ �, __ _- - -• 94 н�гев: J"Other" 1пс1идlев соt[опвеед, grounФ�ute, [оЬассо, га� 1va�ry, vaccineв, [еУtllев апд всте other manuLactured gооЛв. 'Лг1в c.вtegory 1в регl.lу eвtlmated. " . 2. 1975 date аге atatt рго�ес[1опв. Э. Ч1th lсаде апд� lвqе thlв 1лr,ве дlвсгврвnсу геРlессв ln Det•С the вubeteotlal tyгrecordedl trada. . � � ' 1[ Exnorte егв G.o.b. 8ource: Wnlвtbre Л'Etat chargб д1е 1'Есопавlе M�derne, ди P1an, ди Соттегсе е[ де 1а Jоорбггоtlоп lnternaClortale, Bu1leCln де StntleClque; Coneell NaRlonal аи Cr6d1t, 1967 - 1974; [а Zone Ргапс: 1967 - 197Э -г�- з " I,y i i i r i i ��4 апсп _ NI �>°9 � 8 i i r r � �� I � д а о � е е � ^I � . , � 11 �.4 rl п ���. � xi �. � 2T7lOd I 2SI н oS I �> - N�O�o t� N п о� Iэ ип.gи�i . � inr1°R �i I �у �_�'���� � �� � п�I _ '_ ' м1 '_ '+I � I� r�w*о[�I д •а лппi� � а 1> ' н � 1 ы. �I ' �I� N��I .�I � � > а wiп ав и д I .в м �уΡn • �I � �врΡ1Ф�уΡ00t�� ' аoW I � ; У�.�Ф пI д � r а и� •�1 �н ���� �� � �� � м > апта� нI '~ °нI . � а п�ле TI пI �� i`г°Y+R�i1 9 й� вI Е g�o�I �I о �I � И пд К1 l� N D � � � п� а � .оп.С�+I 19 40Сп1 41 � �1 � Зй�,а� цI о� 'MI �q� анпп т Ч гжil я пноо� � .�'�Giй R� ��R] ���� �� � �� л л ?3 _ ' л1 -- .в 1 й~lё лп.Q�iAiI_ � �а � � _ �, v MI� �t�I �I ° ° � � MI�OпI � . � аан�i � � i д R 8 о о � ь в л а н1 ё н а ё 33 � �~ � ��� � О ���О V� 4a.a4i п� �I Tatilp 3.8 CHAD CURRENT ACCOMT BALMCIR OF PAYMEN7S (1,967 - 1976) (in CFAF 109) Current, Account l967 1968 196,9 19'ro 1971 1972 :1973 1974 1975 19715 Ex-porte; of Gbods & N.F.S. n. a. 15.6, 15.0 19.9 2o.8 20.3 :21.5 27.0 25.4 33.3 Exports MDSE (FOB) n.a. 9. 0 8.0 11.1 ll -7 10.1 11.0 16,9 12.4, 24.1 Exports N.F.S. n.a. 6.6, 7.0 8.8 9.1 10.2 10.5 10.1 13-0 9.2 Imports oC Goods & N.F.S. n.a. ig. 8 21.4 27.4 2"r.8 27.4 32.6 40.2 50-El 54.6 .'Imports MDSE (FOB) n.a. 10.51 11.0 14.6 14 -7 14.8 16.6 19.9 27.0 27.6 Imports N.F.S. n.a. 8.5ý lo.4 12.8 1' .1 12.6 16.2 20 23-El Resource Balance n.a. -4.ý! -6.4 -7.5 -7.0 -7.1 -11.3 ..13.2 -25 - b, -21.3 Net Factor Service Tncome .7 .4 -3 .4 -3 .4 -5 -5 Interest Payrnents n.a. .6 -5 -5 -5 .6 n.a. n.a. Workers Remittances n.a. n.a. .2 -3 12 2 .2 -3 n.a. n.a. Others n.a. - .1 .1 .1 .2 n.a. n.a. Net Unrequited Transfers n.a. 3.5 5.2 8.2 8.4 lo. 4 10.2 12.6 14.-1 20.5 Current Account Balance n.a. -1.4 .4 :1.0 3.0 -1.5 -1.1 -u. -1-'3 Source: IMF Balance of Paymentø Vearbook P?67 1974, Worl.d Bank E.F.D., Central Bank Report for 19,75 and 1976. Table 3.9 CA) FINANCING OF CURRENT ACCOUNT (1967 - 1976) (in CFAF 109) Capital1 Account 291 1921169M. 127_2 12LI X 1975 1976, Direct Private Investment n.a. - .1 ..2 .1 - 1.4 :3.3 4.3 6.4 Government Medium and Long Term Liabilities n.a. .3 - .3 .8 .2 -3.4 - .7 - .4 1.1 2.7 - Disbursements n.a. .3 .3 1.3 1.0 .1 .1 .2 1.2 3.7 - Amortization n.a. - - .6 - .5 - *1 -3.5 - .8 - .6 - .1 -1.0 Private Long Term Liabilities n.a. - .1 .6 .1 - .1 .3 .3 .3 - .4 Net Short Term Capital n.a. - .3 - .1 1.5 -2.0 -2.4 -2.1 - -1.9 Capital NET - Long Term Assets n.a. - .1 - .1 - - - L - - Capital Account Balance n.a. -.1 .5 1.1 1.8 -5.3 -1.4 1.1 5.7 6.8 Allocation of SDRs. - - .5 .4 .4 - - - - Reserves -3.2 1.2 - .9 -1.2 2.0 2.6 - .8 5.9 -5.9 Liabilities .2 .9 -1.0 0.0 .0.0 -.3 .1.4 2.2 -.6 Assets - SDRs. - - - - .3 .2 - .6 - .1 - Reserve Position in IMF - - Foreign Exchange, etc. -3.4 .3 .1 -1.2 2.3 2.7 -1.6 3.7 Net Errors and Omissions n.a. 4.7 -.1 - .6 - .2 .3 -.3 .8 .2 .4 Note: 1976 figures partly estimated Source: IMP Balance of Payments Yearbook 1967 - 1974, World Bank E.P.D. CAMEROON STATISTICAL ANNEX Exploration Licenses Table 4.1 Exploration and Development Activity 1972-1975 Table 4.2 Internal Demand Pattern and Consumption Table 4.3 Export Trade 1967-1976 Table 4.4 Import Trade 1967-1976 Table 4.5 Current Account Balance of Payments 1967-1976 Table 4.6 Financing of Current Account 1967-1976 Table 4.7 - 79 - Table 4.1 CAMEROON EXPLORATION LICENSES Operator Other Companies Name of Permit SiZe Elf (49%) Shell Oil (51%) Rio del Rey 1,475 Shell Oil (80%) Elf (20%) Lakele 720 Shell Oil (100%) § 462 Gulf (100%) Moungo 2,875 Oceanic (50.5%) Denison Mines (49.5%) 1/ ribi 8 ,51 "t "" Oceanic II 5,n Redng&Bates Norol-Kribi (100%) 2/ Norminoil (100%) 3/ Sanaga-Nord 1,495 "t North, Close to Chad Occidental Eastern Highlands 18,675 Liberia Mobil (100%) Kribi 1,875 Damson (50%) Dixel Resources (25%) 65 kms south of 1,215 Aracca Petroleum (12.1/2%) Nigerian Offshore Peyto Exploration (7%) fields Oxoco International (5%) Notes: § Unknown I/ Canadian Company / US Independent Company 3/ Norwegian Company Source: Petroleum Economics Limited, London - 80 - Table 4.2 CAMEROON EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 1972 - 1975 1972 1973 1974 1975 A. Explorltion We11s Oil 1 1 4 1 Total 5 3 5 7 B. Development Wells Oil 1 Gas Dy- - - 1 Dry - 1 Total 9 0 0 2 Total Wells Completed 5 3 5 9 C. Footage Drilled 31,736 18,723 32,887 69,909 Source: American Association of Petroleum Geologists -01 - 8,1 - Table 4.3 CAMEROON INTERNAL DEMAND PATTERN AND CONSUMPTION A. Estimated Energy Demand Pattern 1970 1974 Solid Fuel - - Oil 73 79 Natural Gas - - Primary Electricity 27 21 100 100 B. EStimated Oil Consumption 1971 6,850 1972 8,850 1973 7,400 1974 7,000 1975 7,900 Source: United Nations and Bureau of Xines п,вtа в.1 G�гюr Фсроп[ i7wue 1967 - 197Ь (VO]ur� 1n 103 1:отвв г Н•1ие 5о СрАУ 106) p�i°°св _Z�6� _ 1�__ � 1969` , _1970 _ �19'П 197п 197Э 1974 1973 1976 Yo1,r Удов Ро1ивв .Рл1.ие ' Уо1ит У•1ие Vo1wa Уа1т Vo1w Уйиа Уоlоте Уци� Уо1,та Vs1m Уо4гю У•1ие Уоlиые Уцw Yo�1w+ V,аив "'°"""-'_'"'"""""'"""°"""°""""".'""""""""'""""""'�""°°"""_"«г corгut Чгвв """'""""`""'"°".""'""_""'"""""_"'"�'"_'""""°°'.°°"""'"""""""""'"""""•" сосги BS.7 11,o8S 81.2 1Э,947 93.0 гп,33о 9В.5 п4,311г 911.Ь 17,Э9о 105.г 13,369 ВЬ.!i 15:�в54 1о7.Т 3o,9z4 94.9 3В,Ы1 93�.7 27,974 согг.. 6Э.Э 1о,8п5 63.6 1г„боу 73.В ц,ВЭо 75.о 14,71ЭВ ы�.4 14,799 56.В 1Э,Эб7 87.о 19.'SOB 1oS.1 27,о36 Тl.6 2o,g97 ц3.б 3b,om to¢п 1 ЭоЬ.4 Э.Э7о Э64.1 Ь,045 4Эг.3 3.165 41Э.4 4.31Ш ►зtь9 4,147 4го.6 4,6Т9 4Во.о б,ibao �612A 13,Э1о уВб.9 7.ЬВВ 399�.о 4,о52 осы,г /�leultuи иоадле. J а.•. а... о.. л.. л. о,•. 14Э.9 9,31�1 14;3.4 го,86В 121.5 9.9оо 116.Э 1o,iбo 164.9 16,оЭ9 15В.о 16,г93 146,6 1•�,632 ат1л,. 4Т.9 3,4го Эб.б 3„19о 45.1 6,Чбо 6Э.0 6,14В 4ц.9 �Ь,оЭТ 33.9 3,о33 ЭS.:! 5,:216 Э4.4 3,Чо4 Э7.2 6,94Э 33i.7 6,134 Оtмог РгосевоW Rодллев � ол. а.в. ол. а.в. а.в. а.•. 56.7 1,349 'Cai.2 1,419 ТЭ.2 1,479 90.l1 2.�D25 В9.6 2,559 95.1 P.BS7 93�.2 :1.Чо1 ЧвлиГвсеиг.в е... о... а.•. о.•. о.•. о.а. 11.В п,В(УЕ г1.9 �г,4�ь 26.о Э.673 27.:5 4,,Yj7 �.4 5,7В9 го.7 S,оЭг 2f�.4 д,672 Pet RoAuclв о.•. о.в. о.•. а.•. п.•. о.•. .о:! п .27 9 1.о В3 � L8 82 2.6 19� 1.9 240 7L0 400 ` �� оtппг а_•. а_•. а.•. о._ _ а_s. а__а. 29.В Э,а>7 Эг.Э 1.989 ЗТ.9 Э.SпТ ЭВ.:1 3,'769 56.1 6,3В9 7(1.0 • В,бЭ7 5п'.б _9,оо8 � г�г�в пои . 61i.1 Э9.о7о 71В.Ь 46„Т5 ii2o.8 SB`575 G6�4гю 59.� 57.134 ЬЬ,Ш71 1о7,В4г. .1аб.9оо � 11:1.Эоо г АОJwtввоЧ Ro гвюгев0 акрг,гt р•уввтСв о.в. о.•. о.•. (S.ы�3) 6,2oj 3,218 24,'T2j 11.2Ьг п.в. о.•. wc тц.l о.•. п.•. о.•. Ьо.7:�' 6i,_Yi � 2+.� 1пs•1ои о.•. n.•. 1юел.г ]l. Im1ulев Wnвпвл, eoWaco, �гаиWлиЧ. мtигвl гиЕЬвг, eottoo, р•L, о11, W�a kвгоаl, оwtвсевов. г., iтlшlвв л!1 вlаервгв, вsм wn0, риlр �гтА, о11 овtвв omircв: Wir1A Ввлt Есолтlе 1flulm, L 7лов lhиа _в,_ ' 1ti �� �� �1 ' а � n °� Т. � лУ � � _ - $ VФ Ф10У 1� Sгb�. �,о �� �� б� AI F FI ' s�. й i� S � �; s� я� I3 �' �$j �I ,� � I .1а ��п нi1 � .�_i � "'���"IJJJ 9 и n т gн ��! 8H�i ж7� �И нт �л��уΡ11 а� � �рΡ� � > V�wL N01 �I Ф V1I �� ov ои нт пп I>° �Я1 й lE 1Ф9 �� � �� �� �� �� � �� � М �� � а не- оо �I > �з �� ^� . �� � �> �� �� �.� � �� . �I w wa1 и1 - b1 w $ н ! ФФ нн �. $ �£ �� g sI у 1� еsг t!� яi � ri �� �F �� sI Ф �i > м а еo- = о.в ин '. (> �� �� �р йа д д �I о е й � рн � � � Н� о д . I� ^ 7й ° ° �{� j � : . �s па `� - -. 7 тм �� �I 1> D� дд � � � а� i i �I i i i �na до � д д У� �н 4 СХ L � � ° ° 6 �� °° �€ S й$ "� � 9 А �рΡ �� $"�?г й г-и У � ^ 3 � �1� уΡ�jti� � $ �уΡ 7л�� �I 9.. ëI •�I ����� �� �� �1 �� Tab.le 4.6 CAMEROON CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1:1967 - 1976) (in CFAF 109) Current Jkec:>ur t 1967 ic,68 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 igi,4 1975 1976 't -- -- -- - - - - ýxports of Goods & N.F.S. n. a. n. a. n. a. '76.5 79.7 79.4 115.1? 139.6 141.4 n. a. Eicports MDSE: (FOB) n. a. n. a. n. a. 60- 7 65.3 6o.4 91.,? 118,6 109.7 n. a. i Eicports N.F.S. n. a. n. a. n. a. 15-8 14.4 19.0 24.o 21.0 31.7 n. a. o:) Imports of GoodB & N.F.S. n. IX. n. a. n. a. 85-5 91.6 99.8 108.*7 133.0 165.6 n. a. Imports MDSF: (FOB) n. Il. n. a. n. a. '53.0 61.8 65.0 69.,? 93.8 115.8 n. a. Imports N.F.S. n. a. n. a. n. a. :ý2-5 29.8 34.8 39 -5 39.2 49.8 n. a. Resource Balance n. a. n.a. 11.a. - 9.0 ..11.9 -PO.4 6.15 6.6 -24.2 n.a. Net Factor Sex-vice Income n. 11. 11.a. n.a. - 5.2 6.5 - 8.3 -13-2 -18.3 -22.2 n.a. Interest, Payments n. a. n.a. n.a. - 0.7 1.0 - 2.1 - 3 -7 - 7.9 -10.0 n.a. Workers Remlttances n. IX. 11.a. n.a. - 4.5 5.5 - 6.2 - 9.5 -io.4 -12.2 n.a. Net Unrequited Transfers n. a. n.a. n.aý 5.9 6.2 14.9 4. 4 8.2 14.o n.a. -2urren' Account Balance n. a. n.a. n.a. 8,3 -.12.2 -13.8 - 2.'ý 3.5 -32.4 n.a. Source: IMr Balance of Papnentr, Y,mrbook 1967-19'j14 and 1976 IBRD misaion estimates Table 4,7 CAMEROON FINANCING OF CURRENT ACCOUNP (1967 - 1976) (in CFAF 10 Capital Account 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 974 1975 1976 Direct Private Investment n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 0.5 0.8 -1.7 7.0' 5.2 Government Medium & Long Tem n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.8 8.5 -1.1 8.0 5.0 11.9 Liabillities - Disbursements n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.6 9.9 9.8 10.2 9.3 16.0 - Amortization n.a. n.a. n.a. -0.8 -1.4 -10.9 -2.2 -4.3 -4.1 Private Long Term Liabilities n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.6 1.4 5.0 3.9. -0.3 3.6 fet Short Term Capital- n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.6 -0.5 3.5 -0.9 -2.74 .8 Capital NEI n.a. n.a. n.a. - Long Term Assets n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 -0.2 -.4 -0.1 -0.1 -8.0 Capital Account Balance n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.4 9.7 7.8 9.2 9.2 20.5 Allocation of SDRa. 0.9 1.0 1.0 - - - Reserres Liabilities - - - 0.1 0.0 - - 1.4 1.9 Assets - SDRs. - - - -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 - - 0.1 - Reserve Position in IIMF 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.2 - - - 2.0 - - Foreign Exchange etc. 2.3 -4.0 -1.8 -7.0 4.6 8.7 -0.6 -7.7 10.8 Net Errors & Onissions n.a. n.a. n.a. - -2.1 -2.7 -6.3 -1.4 -0.9 Source: IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook 1967-1974 , and 1976 IBRD mission estimates