Tanzania - Sixth Education Project

Documnt of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-24 19-TA REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOR A SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT November 29, 1978 This doment has a restricted distibuton and may be imd by recipients only In te performace of their of1ial dutie. Its conteentsmy not otherwise he dislsd withwot World Bank athorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Tanzania Shilling (TSh) US$1.0 TSh 8.00 TSh 1.0 = US$0.125 (As the Tanzania Shilling is officially valued at a fixed rate of 9.66 TSh to the SDR, the US Dollar/ Tanzania Shilling exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions in this report were made at US$1.00 to TSh 8.00 which is close to the 1978 average exchange rate.) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CCM - Chama Cha Mapinduzi DSA - Dar es Salaam School of Accountancy EAC - East African Community EAMI - East African Management Institute ESR - Education for Self-Reliance ITC - Instructor Training Center MANTEP - Management Training for Educational Personnel MATIs - Ministry of Agriculture's Training Institutes MOE - Ministry of National Education MOL - Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare NVTP - National Vocational Training Program Project Unit - Project Planning Section RTCs - Rural Training Centers TANU - Tanganyika African National Union UPE - Universal Primary Education VMTs - Village Management Technicians VTCs - Vocational Training Centers FISCAL YEAR Government: July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TANZANIA SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: United Republic of Tanzania. Amount: US$12.0 million equivalent. Terms: Standard. Project The project would assist in the development of middle Description: level management and skill training for the modern sector. It would provide for: (i) strengthening of vocational and technical education; (ii) improved accounting training; (iii) aprogram for management training for educational personnel; (iv) greater access of women to technical education; (v) a study aimed at increasing the effectiveness of the Institute of Education; and (vi) gn improved monitoring and evaluation system. The project faces no special risks. However, close supervision of interministerial coordination at the critical stages of design, tendering and procurement will be necessary to assure successful technical execution. Estimated Cost: US$ million Local Foreign Total Civil Works, Furniture, Equipment, Vehicles and Technical Assistance (a) Vocational Training Centers 1.0 1.0 2.0 (b) Instructor Training Center 1.0 1.1 2.1 (c) Technical Secondary Schools 1.0 0.9 1.9 (d) School of Accountancy 1.9 1.8 3.7 (e) Management Training for Educational Personnel 0.1 0.5 0.6 Project Administration and Monitoring and Studies 0.2 0.4 0.6 Sub-total 5.2 5.7 10.9 Contingencies 2.5 2.6 5.1 TOTAL PROJECT COST 7.7 8.3 16.0 of which taxes and duties 1.6 - 1.6 PROJECT COST NET OF TAXES AND DUTIES 6.1 8.3 14.4 This document has a restticted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their ofhfcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Financing Plan: US$ million Local Foreign Total % IDA 3.7 8.3 12.0 83 Government 2.4 - 2.4 17 PROJECT COST NET OF TAXES AND DUTIES 6.1 8.3 14.4 100 Disbursements: US$ Million IDA FY 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Annual 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.4 2.0 0.4 Cumulative 0.1 1.2 5.2 9.6 11.6 12.0 Appraisal Report: Report No. 2141-TA dated November 23, 1978.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOR A SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the United Republic of Tanzania of US$12.0 million equivalent on standard terms to help finance a Sixth Education Project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A Basic Economic Mission visited Tanzania in August 1976. The Basic Economic Report was distributed in December 1977 (Report No. 1616-TA). A summary of social and economic data is in Annex I. Profile of the Economy 3. Tanzania is one of the twenty-five least developed countries in the world with a per capita income in 1977 of US$200. The economy is still heavily dependent on agriculture: 90% of the labor force is engaged in agri- culture and approximately 40% of GDP and two-thirds of total exports are derived from agricultural production. Average rural incomes are much below average urban incomes and there is considerable regional variation in rural incomes owing largely to differences in climate and land fertility. Overall population density is low, though a few areas are considered overpopulated. Population growth is estimated at 2.7% per annum with both fertility and mortality at relatively high levels. 4. Since the Arusha Declaration in 1967 Tanzania has pursued a socialist development strategy. Banking, insurance, and most large-scale enterprises in manufacturing, plantation agriculture, and wholesale trade are under state control. Controls are used extensively to direct economic activity, including import licencing, foreign exchange control, price control, the reservation of some activities to the state or cooperative sector, and detailed Government investment planning. The second major feature of Tanzania's development strategy is its strong emphasis on rural development and social programs to benefit the poor. This is reflected in ambitious programs for the provision of rural water supplies and health services and in the decision to achieve universal entry into primary education by 1977. The Government policy of settling rural population into villages is an important element in its attempt to facilitate the provision of economic and social services in rural areas. Long-Term Economic Trends 5. In the decade 1967-77 real GDP at factor cost grew at an annual average rate of 4.6%, or about 1.8% per annum per capita. While economic 1/ This section is essentially the same as that of the President"s Report on the Tourism Rehabilitation Project, dated November 29, 1978.  - 2 - growth was severely disrupted by the economic crisis following the failure of rains and large increases in import prices in 1973 and 1974, it has since resumed with the improved weather in 1976 and 1977. 6. The Government has an impressive record of domestic resource mobilization. Between 1966-67 and 1976-77 the share of recurrent revenue rose from 14.3% to 20.2% of GDP. This has been achieved through a combina- tion of highly progressive direct taxes and proportional or moderately pro- gressive indirect taxes. Except during the economic crisis in 1974-75, the rate of national savings has also been high: gross national savings fluc- tuated at around 16-17% of GNP from the mid-1960's through 1973, fell to half that level during the crisis years and recovered to the pre-crisis level in 1976-77. These are extremely high levels of savings for a country at Tanzania's income level. 7. Some progress has also been made in achieving the Government's objective of a more equitable income distribution. While between 1969 and 1975 the average urban-rural gap remained approximately constant, it is likely that the gap has now been slightly reduced due to continued recovery of agri- cultural production and higher producer prices. Regional income differentials in rural areas have tended to widen slightly. Within the urban sector there has been a dramatic narrowing of the post-tax income differential between the highest-paid government officials and minimum wage earners from 50 to 1 in 1961 to 8 to 1 in 1975. However, the overall formal urban sector earnings structure has remained relatively stable while a large informal sector has emerged comprising large numbers of unemployed, underemployed and other work- ers with earnings significantly below the official urban minimum wage. The policies of wage restraint and higher producer prices pursued since 1975 should have a beneficial impact on almost all dimensions of income distribu- tion and the basic needs oriented programs in rural water and health and in universal primary education (para 4 above) are resulting in a significant redirection in public expenditures toward the rural poor. 8. Despite satisfactory performance on growth, domestic resource mobilization, and income distribution there are other areas in which per- formance has been less than satisfactory. The most problematic long-term trend is the slow growth of agricultural production. From 1967-77 agriculture grew at an annual rate of 2.7%, the same as the rate of growth of population. In the past three years agricultural growth has been higher, but this pri- marily represents recovery to the long-term trend from the bad years in 1973-74. In addition the recovery has been limited to subsistence agricul- ture; monetary agricultural production was only 2.2% higher in 1977 than in 1972. 9. Slow agricultural growth has been largely responsible for a second problem, the disappointingly slow growth of export volume: while the total volume of exports of goods and services was 7.7% higher in 1976 than in 1966, the volume of exports of goods alone was actually lower in 1976 than a decade earlier. From 1966-71, the volume of exports of goods and services grew at 7.7% per year, but this was followed by a decline after 1971, a  -3- sharp drop in 1974, and only a partial recovery by 1976. Increasied levels of foreign assistance and high coffee prices have mitigated the worst effects of the decline in export volume, but Government authorities have been forced to impose stricter import controls which have had particularly adverse effects on industrial production in recent years. Recent Economic Performance 10. The economy continued its recovery in 1977. Total GDP increased by 5.9% while agricultural production increased by 5.6%. There was no sig- nificant change in export volume but the boom in coffee prices helped raise mainland commodity export receipts from TSh 3,828 million to TSh 4,585 mil- lion. External reserves were US$280 million at the end of 1977 but had fallen to US$200 million by May 1978 largely as a result of falling coffee prices. This is equivalent to three months imports at the 1977 level. 11. Recovery has been aided by good economic management. The Govern- ment has continued to adhere to the principal elements of the policy package introduced at the time of appraisal and negotiation of the Program Loan (No. 1063-TA) in late 1974. These include reallocation of investment in favor of directly productive sectors, higher agricultural producer prices, constraints on wages and salaries, and price and tax increases to restrain private consumption. Since mid-1976 the Government has also succeeded in bringing Government spending under control and has begun to re-Lax import controls. Because excessive Government spending and borrowing from the banking system was threatening to undermine financial stability and the entire program of recovery in early 1976, a program of budgetary control was developed by the Government and supported by IMF assistance and a Program Credit (No. 688-TA) in early 1977. Through the imposition of new budgetary control measures and the reimposition of a progressive tax on coffee exports, the Government was able in 1977-78 to hold bank borrowing to nearly zero. The Program Credit was also designed to support selected relaxation of import controls in order to provide needed imports of spare parts and raw materials for increased capacity utilization. After some delays, the availability of essential maintenance imports has increased. 12. In addition, the Government has experimented in recent mionths with measures to increase labor productivity. These have included layoffs of some redundant workers and consultancy studies of the operational prob- lems of individual firms. Of potentially greater importance,in the Budget Speech in June 1978 the Finance Minister called for the immediate adoption of a payment-by-result wage system to stimulate productivity. 13. Tanzania continues to attract large amounts of foreign assistance on concessional terms. Because of the very concessional terms on which aid has been given to Tanzania and the Government's refusal to use higher cost commercial loans and supplier's credits, the overall debt service ratio has remained low. Including a notional 40% share of the debt of the East African Community Corporations, it was less than 8% in 1977. Bank debt as  - 4 - a percentage of Tanzania's total debt was about 26% in 1977; this is pro- jected to rise to about 29% in 1985 and remain stable thereafter. While the favorable terms of much of Tanzania's foreign assistance (particularly the increasing proportion of grants) significantly reduce the debt service burden, they also increase Bank Group exposure. Debt service payments to the Bank Group were about 28.6% of Tanzania's total debt service payments in 1977, and are projected to rise to approximately 30% in 1980. 14. Tanzania has a suitable development program which will require sub- stantial domestic funds in excess of local savings and available non-Bank Group external capital. Local cost financing is justified in view of our support for the Government's increased emphasis on local cost-intensive rural investments and the importance of not aggravating the local funds shortage. East African Community (EAC) 15. The recent developments in the East African Community were outlined in a report to the Executive Directors dated December 19, 1977 (R77-312). Dr. Victor Umbricht, the independent mediator appointed by the Partner States, has visited East Africa on numerous occasions and has begun work on the questions involved in appraising the assets and liabilities of the EAC Corpo- rations and making recommendations on their allocation. The de facto breakup of the Community is expected to have some impact on Tanzania's budget as new national corporations take over the services formerly provided by the EAC Corporations. While substantial initial investments are required (particularly in the formation of the airways corporation and the rehabilitation of the railways), the burden on the Government budget should be temporary as the new corporations are expected to become self-financing. A major development related to the EAC difficulties was the closure of the border with Kenya. Kenya was a major trading partner of Tanzania and in the short run consider- able adjustments have had to be made in locating new suppliers for some items and developing alternative outlets for some manufactured goods and agricultural products. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN TANZANIA I/ 16. Tanzania joined the Bank, IDA and IFC in 1962. Beginning with an IDA credit for education in 1962, 34 IDA credits, and 16 Bank loans including two on Third Window terms amounting to $604.5 million have so far been approved for Tanzania. In addition, Tanzania has been a beneficiary of 10 loans total- ling US$244.8 million which have been extended for the development of the common services and development bank operated regionally by Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda through their association in the East African Community. IFC investments in Tanzania, totalling US$4.7 million, were made to the Kilombero 1/ This section is essentially the same as that of the President's Report on the Tourism Rehabilitation Project, dated November 29, 1978.  - 5- Sugar Company in 1960 and 1964. This Company encountered financial diffi- culties and in 1969 IFC and other investors sold their interest in the Company to the Government. A new IFC investment of US$1.75 million in soap manufacturing in Mbeya was approved by the Executive Directors on June 8, 1978. Annex II contains summary statements of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments to Tanzania and the East African Community organizations as of October 31, 1978 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 17. In keeping with Tanzania's overall development strategy Bank Group lending operations are increasingly focusing on the rural sector and directly productive projects. Up to the end of FY72, 10 out of 14 loans and: credits made individually to Tanzania had been for infrastructure. The overwhelming majority of the operations approved since then have been for directly pro- ductive projects. Furthermore, a number of Bank Group supported infrastruc- ture projects have been closely linked with specific productive activities. For example, the Urban Water Supply Project (Loan No. 1354-TA) approved in January 1977, will support the Industrial Complex in Morogoro (Loans No. 1385-T-TA and 1386-TA) and the Morogoro Textile Project (Loan No. 1607-TA and Credit No. 833-TA). Directly productive projects recently approved include a Tanzanian Investment Bank Project, a Tobacco Handling Project, a Second Cashewnut Processing Project and a Mwanza/Shinyanga Rural Development Project. The first Bank Group assisted project in the forestry sector, the Sao Hill Forestry Project (Loan No. 1307-TA), approved in July 1976 will provide the raw materials for Tanzania's first paper and pulp plant, also under consideration by the Bank Group for financing. Projects which have been appraised include a Tourism Rehabilitation Project, a Second UJrban Water Supply Project, the Mufindi Pulp and Paper Project, lines of credit: to the Tanzania Rural Development Bank andTanzania Investment Bank, a Fifth Highway Project and a Smallholder Tea Consolidation Project. A rural development project in Mara, a foodgrain storage and milling project, a harbours project, an agricultural services project are also under preparation. 18. Although the comparatively high proportion of undisbursed loans and credits, detailed in Annex II, is in large part a result of the recent approval of many of these projects, it also reflects the fact that overall project implementation has been slower than was projected. It is clear in retrospect that both the Bank Group and Tanzania have been optimistic regarding Tanzania's absorptive capacity. The causes of the difficulties in implementation are varied. Some stem from the scarcity of suitably trained and experienced manpower, some reflect the problems in identifying agronomic input packages appropriate to the needs of smallholder farmers while others result from the strains associated with attempting a "frontal attack" on poverty. These problems have been compounded by frequent and drastic adminis- trative changes, which -- though potentially the source of long-term benefits -- have certainly disrupted orderly execution of projects and made parts of earlier project concepts obsolete. In general, difficulties have been most severe in agriculture, particularly in the smallholder rural sector. As Bank Group lending program has increasingly concentrated on this sector, these problems have become correspondingly more apparent and severe. By contrast, the "modern" sector projects have tended to fare better: the Tanzania  - 6 - Investment Bank, Mwanza Textile, and Cashewnut Processing Projects, for example, are proceeding well. 19. As the Bank Group's lending program has expanded, increasing attention has been given to measures designed to improve project implementa- tion. A course was conducted in Dar es Salaam in 1973 and again in 1978 on Bank Group procurement procedures with the relevant Government officials. A special project implementation unit was set up in the Ministry of Agriculture and nine Agricultural Development Services staff have been assigned to Bank Group projects. The need to establish a close and continuous working level dialogue between responsible Tanzanian officials and Bank Group staff on implementation problems was one of the prime reasons for the expansion of the Resident Mission to two professionals in October 1976. In February 1977 a regular Government/Bank Group review of project implementation was established. Discussions on the entire Bank Group portfolio chaired by the Ministry of Finance and attended by Bank Group staff and officials from implementing agencies were to be held on a quarterly basis. Steps to strengthen these review procedures were taken in August 1977 when those meetings were shifted to a monthly basis. The Government also agreed that periodically these reviews will be conducted on an "in-depth" basis to discuss in detail indi- vidual problem projects and problems which are affecting project implementa- tion across a number of sectors. As a result of these reviews a number of positive developments have been noted: actions agreed to during the reviews have been completed and the coordination and communication between the Minis- try of Finance and the various ministries and agencies responsible for project implementation have improved markedly. 20. The Government has also become increasingly conscious of the importance of implementation. In addition to fully supporting the project implementation review system, the Ministry of Finance has now decided to set up an internal unit to oversee project performance. Furthermore, there have been more consistent responses to Bank suggestions and a willingness to openly discuss project problems raised by Bank Group staff. As a con- sequence, the disbursement record of Bank Group financed projects has improved somewhat over the last two years, and a recent analysis indicated that the Tanzanian disbursement performance is about equal to the Bank Group-wide average. PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN TANZANIA Background 21. At Independence in 1961, the most pressing problem of the new Government was the scarcity of skilled manpower necessary to fill Government posts and help implement the ambitious development program. At that time, Tanzania's educational system served only a small minority of its total population with less than 30% of all primary school age children enrolled in schools and less than 8% ever reaching secondary schools. The general curri- culum was oriented toward academic subjects and the urban and modern sectors, although few people ever entered universities and over 90% of the population lived in rural areas.  - 7 - 22. In the Government's First Five-Year Development Plan (1964-69) the major portion of the education sector's investments was directed at resolving the manpower shortage. It gave priority to the goal of self-sufficiency in skilled manpower by 1980 by expanding education at the secondary, higher and adult education levels; it also resolved to establish a comprehensive educa- tional system for adults and children as soon as financially possible. By the end of the First Plan, the educational achievements in respect to secondary school expansion were substantial: reflecting the large capital investment program in new schools and major extensions of existing schools, total enroll- ment at public secondary schools increased from 11,282 in 1961 to 29,958 in 1969. As important as the overall absolute increase, a reduction in dropout rates resulted in total enrollments expanding about twice as rapidly as the entry enrollments. 23. Following the Arusha Declaration in 1967 (para 4 above), President Nyerere sharply criticized the elitism, isolation from rural areas, and lack of practical experience in formal eduction, and laid down guidelines for reform in his policy of "Education for Self-Reliance (ESR)." Priorities were to be shifted in favor of basic education for the entire population and education curriculum was to aim at greater relevancy to the rural environment (with many more farming and practical subjects introduced in schools). ESR and the Arusha Declaration supplied the conceptual foundations for the educa- tion proposals in the Second Five-Year Plan (1969-74); this Plan established the goals of Universal Primary Education (UPE) by 1989 and an end to illiteracy by 1975. In addition, the government and local organizations were instructed to develop adult and nonformal education programs in primary schools in order to establish a framework for meeting the educational needs of the whole com- munity. In spite of these new directions the goal of self-sufficiency in skilled manpower by 1980 was not abandoned; the secondary and higher education systems continued to expand but at a slower rate. 24. In late 1974, near the end of the Second Five-Year Plan, the Tanganyika African National Union's (TANU) 1/ National Executive Committee met in Musoma to review the successes and failures of Tanzania's education system. The resulting Musoma Resolution accelerated the target for UPE to November 1977 and recommended that before candidates are allowed to enroll .in universi- ties they should have two years of work experience and receive a satisfactory evaluation from both their employer and TANU. This resolution also supported the existing educational policies of diversified secondary education, increased practical skills, and self-reliance activities. Present Environment and the Third Five-Year Plan 25. Since ESR and the Musoma Resolution, impressive progress has been made in reorienting the education system. In primary education, the increases in enrollments bear witness to a dramatic achievement. Standard 1 1/ TANU (the mainland political party) was merged with the Zanzibar political party (the Afro-Shirazi Party) in February 1977. The new party is called Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).  - 8 - enrollments grew from 231,350 in 1974 to 540,200 in 1977 and 947,900 in 1978--the 1978 figure represents 90% of the total Standard 1 population. Moreover, the acceleration of the goal of UPE from 1989 to 1977 led planners and implementers to experimentation with inexpensive physical school plans and much higher proportions of self help than had been previously achieved. Self- help investments in schools and teacher houses were estimated at TSh 170 million (over US$20 million) in 1975. In addition, since the stock of trained teachers was clearly inadequate for achieving UPE, various innovations on recruiting and training (including distance teaching) were tried. 26. In respect to the goal of eliminating illiteracy (para 23), enroll- ments in adult education classes in 1975 reached 5.2 million, almost 90% of the estimated adult illiterate population. On the basis of detailed tests, it was estimated that the rate of effective literacy in Tanzania almost doubled from 1967 to 1975. Over three-fourths of the instructors in the literacy courses were volunteers, mostly primary school graduates, and the program made use of whatever physical facilities were available. Thus, in a number of respects, the UPE and adult education programs were impressive and effec- tive models for mobilizing existing physical and human resources for specified educational objectives. 27. In the Third Five-Year Plan (1976-80) the basic directions in edu- cation remain similar to those charted by ESR and the Musoma Resolution. The Plan restated that UPE be achieved by November 1977, and that all Tanzanians should be functionally literate. In addition, the Plan calls for emphasis on the output of teachers for higher education and a change in the content of secondary and teacher education. In secondary education more emphasis is to be placed on technical and commercial education to develop skills in areas of severe shortages; teacher training will be introduced so that all graduates will be qualified to teach in primary schools; and equality of opportunity for women will be promoted by the provision of additional places for them. Issues in the Education Sector 28. While a number of the achievements in the education sector in Tanzania are impressive (paras 25 and 26), serious problems have emerged in a few areas. First, with the rapid post independence expansion of the sector, problems have emerged in the quality and efficiency of the education system: the management of an educational system with a great variety of schools calls for skills which are in limited supply; the teaching cadre lacks experience and there are major shortages in some subjects; there is duplication of effort; etc. Second, while the total output of the education system is roughly in line with the country-wide requirements, there are a number of critical skill areas which face significant deficits. This is complicated by weakness in the manpower planning system which is used to determine the allocation of the labor force in Tanzania. Third, despite the national policy of equal opportunity for women the percentage of women at the secondary edu- cation levels and above continues to be low. Moreover, as women are generally limited to specific streams, their numbers in many important skill categories are particularly limited. Fourth, the impact on the budget of the rapid  -9- growth in recurrent expenditures for education is a matter of concern. These problem areas were extensively discussed with the Government during both the review of the Basic Economic Report (para. 2) and the preparation of the pro- posed project; a number of project components are specifically designed to address some of them. Previous IDA Experience in the Sector 29. The realization of Tanzanian educational objectives has been assisted by IDA credits in five previous education projects. Two projects, financed in 1963 and 1969 and successfully completed in 1967 and 1976, assisted the expansion of secondary education. These efforts were designed to assist the Government in addressing its manpower needs. Supporting the objectives of the Second Plan, the third project (financed in 1971 and com- pleted in 1977), assisted agricultural education by financing the Ministry of Agriculture's training institutes (MATIs) and Rural Training Centers (RTCs). While the MATIs component was successful, the efforts to develop the RTCs were weakened by a series of rapid institutional changes. 30. The fourth project, which was approved in 1973 and is still under implementation, is directed at developing multi-purpose community education centers for rural areas, improving the training of primary teachers and pro- viding facilities for medical education. The first two components addressed the central concerns of the Second Plan while the later investment was aimed at improving the facilities of Tanzania's new medical school. Implementation of the fourth project began slowly but is now satisfactory. The fifth project, approved in late 1975, financed a program for the training of village manage- ment technicians (VMTs) who are working on improving village management, and the diversification of secondary education. While both components of this project started well and progress on the secondary education component is satisfactory, the VMT component has been affected by changes in the rural administration system; the effect of these changes is being carefully moni- tored. Priority Areas for Lending in Education 31. In addition to the lending experience reviewed above, the Government and the Bank Group have cooperated in undertaking substantial sector work in education: a study of agricultural education, an inventory of secondary facilities, two sector surveys, an evaluation and monitoring exercise and a study of the fiscal implications of UPE have been comp'leted. This extensive lending and sector work has resulted in the Bank Group focusing on two major areas: rural training and addressing specific skill shortages. Bank Group staff are presently completing a review of rural training and it is antici- pated that this will result in the preparation of a significant rural training component for a future education project. The proposed project is primarily directed at addressing areas where Tanzania faces specific skill shortages through vocational education and accountancy training. The other major com- ponents of the project focus on two of the major sector problems discussed above (para. 28): educational opportunities for women and the quality of educational administration.  - 10 - 32. In vocational education, the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare's (MOL) National Vocational Training Program (NVTP) encompasses the administra- tion and operation of all vocational training and trade testing programs. The core training institutions of the NVTP are three vocational training centers (VTCs) which admit primary school graduates. The four-year VTC program consists of an eight-month full time course followed by three-month short courses in each of the three subsequent years of employment. In the proposed project, financing is provided for the items necessary to ensure full utiliza- tion of two of the existing VTCs (para. 39 below). The shortage of instruc- tional staff, particularly at the VTCs, has been a constraint on the effective implementation of the NVTP. While a pilot instructor program has been ini- tiated at one VTC with bilateral support, it is not adequate to fully staff the NVTP; in addition less than 50% of the current VTC staff are fully quali- fied in their technical fields. The proposed project includes financing for the establishment of the country's first instructor training center for the NVTP (para. 40). 33. The shortage of accountants at all levels has been highlighted in recent Manpower Plans. The Dar-es-Salam School of Accountancy (DSA) was established in 1973 by the Ministry of Finance and Planning to provide training for technical (accounts clerks and storekeepers) and subprofessional (junior accounts and bookkeepers) personnel. Under the proposed project the DSA would be expanded to adequately meet the increased demand for staff at these levels (para. 42). 34. Despite the national policy of equal opportunity for women, second- ary education has largely offered women only home economics and secretarial careers. School enrollment data for 1976 indicate that one of the areas of lowest female participation is in technical education: females account for only 0.5% of enrollments in technical colleges. This exceptionally low enrollment of women in technical colleges is a consequence of the token number of women at the four Tanzanian technical secondary schools. Although women compete freely with men for available places in these schools, they are in fact excluded by the lack of hostel accommodation: women are accepted only as day students or, in very limited number of cases, accommodated in makeshift quarters. To address this problem the proposed project would finance additional hostel places for women at each of four existing technical secondary schools (para. 41 below). 35. With the rapid growth in the size of the Tanzanian education system the importance of effective administration in the sector has increased. Proper training of the educational administration cadre will be critical to improving the efficiency and quality of the system. To address this issue the project will finance the replacement of a variety of ad hoc in service training programs with a comprehensive program of management training for educational personnel (MANTEP, para. 44 below).  - 11 - PART IV - THE PROJECT 36. The proposed project was identified in July 1977, and was prepared by the Government with assistance from UNESCO and the Bank Group. The project was appraised in April 1978. Negotiations took place in Washington in November 1978 and the Government Delegation was led by Mr. S. Tunginie, Principal Secretary, Ministry of National Education (MOE). A Credit and Project Summary is at the front of this report and the Supplemental Data Sheet is given in Annex III. A Staff Appraisal Report entitled "A Sixth Education Project" (Report No. 2141-TA dated November 23, 1978) is being distributed separately. Project Objectives 37. The major objective of the project is to assist in the development of critical middle level management and skill training for the modern sector. In order to accomplish this, the project provides for: (i) strengthening of vocational and technical education; (ii) improved accountancy training (iii) a program of management training for educational personnel; ( iv) greater access of women to technical education; ( v) a study aimed at increasing the effectiveness of the Institute of Education; and (vi) an improved monitoring and evaluation system. These objectives are in line with Tanzania's Third Five-Year Development Plan, which places emphasis on the teaching of skills in short supply and the equality of opportunity for women. Project Description 38. Two general areas are being supported by the components financed in this project: (i) vocational and technical education and (ii) accountancy training and management training for educational personnel. In addition, financing will be provided for a study of the Institute of Education. (i) Vocational and Technical Education 39. Vocational Training Centers (VTCs). The proposed project would include the provision of additional equipment, boarding facilities and staff housing for the existing VTCs at Mwanza and Tanga. Accommodation to be pro- vided for students would promote access to education for non-day students from distant rural areas (150 places each at Tanga and Mwanza), and the provision of staff housing would provide the incentives needed to attract and retain qualified instructional staff. The importance of addressing boarding and staffing needs has been highlighted in the evaluation of previous edu- cation projects in Tanzania. 40. Instructor Training Center (ITC). The Government proposes to develop a new instructor training center at Morogoro to provide teachers for the NVTP. This location is supported by the extensive future industrial development planned at Morogoro, its central location, and the availability of land, power and water. The proposed project would finance equipment and vehicles for field support for the ITC, instruction and boarding facilities for 160 students, and staff housing. Additional staff houses would be con- structed by trainees as part of the instructional program. Annual enrollment  - 12 - at the ITC would be 160 students, comprising four pre-service groups of 30 each in 8-month courses, and two in-service groups of 20 each in 3-month courses. Assistance from the Canadian International Development Agency for an ongoing pilot instructor training program will continue until 1980. Following a review of that program, the Government is expected to seek a continuation of technical assistance from bilateral sources; the Government has agreed that it would secure the necessary staff for the proper operation of ITC at Morogoro when operational (Section 3.02 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 41. Access of Women to Technical Education. In line with the Govern- ment's goal of increasing opportunities for women, the proposed project would add 160 hostel places to each of four existing technical secondary schools, raising the potential for women's participation at this level from about 3% to a planned 25% by 1983. While the total capacity in these schools would remain about 2,800, increasing the number of usable hostel places would ensure their full utilization and provide adequate boarding facilities for women. Data indicate that the spaces proposed for women could be filled by interested and qualified candidates. The enhanced boarding facilities provided under the proposed project would be complemented by the improvements of workshops and equipment recently provided under a bilateral grant from the Netherlands. (ii) Accountancy Training and Management 42. The Dar es Salaam School of Accountancy (DSA). Under the project, it is proposed to increase the DSA enrollment from about 800 to 1,015. The proposed project would finance construction and equipping of additional teaching, boarding and administrative facilities, and the provision of staff housing which is required because of the severe housing shortage in Dar es Salaam. It is expected that technical assistance required to staff the expanded facilities would be provided by the Swedish International Development Agency or the Canadian International Development Agency. The Government has agreed that it would secure the necessary staff for the proper operation of DSA (Section 3.02 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 43. This proposed expansion would add significantly to the stock of trained personnel at technical and sub-professional levels, a high priority in view of the shortage of qualified accounting staff at all levels. How- ever, a major issue which has been identified in the accountancy sub-sector is the rectification of the existing high failure rate at DSA (presently about 85%); there are also questions concerning the examination system and appropriateness of the accountancy curriculum in general. These issues have been recognized by the Government and in order to examine them, a study, with assistance from a panel of international experts, is expected to commence shortly. In order to ensure that the proposed investment in DSA is accom- panied by the resolution of these problems the Government has agreed to furnish the report of the panel to the Association for comment by July 1, 1979 and thereafter, it would adopt and implement a plan of action adequate to ensure the efficient training of accountants in Tanzania (Section 3.07 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). The adoption of this plan of action  - 13 - would be a condition of disbursement for civil works, furniture, vehicles and equipment financed under this component (Schedule 1, para 4(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 44. Management Training for Educational Personnel (MANTEP). This project component would consolidate and expand an existing administrative program for the education sector. It would be located at the present College of National Education in Bagamoyo, and would make use of several buildings now under construction. The ten permanent staff members for MANTEP would receive training at the East African Management Institute (EAMI) in Arusha, and EAMI, together with other agencies such as the Institute of Education, would assist in the preparation of curricula to be used in the training program. Financing under the project would be provided for renovation of and equipment for an existing seminary building at Bagamoyo, teaching materials, the training program at EAMI, three vehicles, and a technical specialist to assist in the development of MANTEP. The terms of reference for the instructor training course at EA4I and for the technical assistance specialist required for implementing the MANTEP program would be submitted to Association for comment by December 31, 1979; the specialist would be appointed by March 31, 1980 with qualifications and on terms and conditions acceptable to Association (Section 3.04 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 45. In-service training would be designed to meet the needs of each level of the educational field staff from regional education officers to head teachers of primary schools. Induction courses ranging from 1 to 4 months, would cover such items as scheduling, accounting, evaluation activities, report writing, methods of teacher, school and curricula appraisal, and methods of instruction. About 2,800 staff members would be trained over the first five years in these courses. The induction courses, once completed, would be replaced by longer and more intensive training courses. (iii) Project-Related Study 46. The Institute of Education, established in 1964 as part of the University of Dar es Salaam, has as its primary functions educational plan- ning, evaluation and research, assistance in the development of curricula and in-service training. The post independence changes in educational policy have resulted in major increases in the work load of the Institute. A major reassessment is required to define its future role, assess its staffing needs and plan for physical expansion. The proposed project would include a provisLon of US$75,000 to fund such a study; draft terms of reference have already been reviewed by the Association and found satisfactory. Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation 47. The project would be inplemented over a period of about 6 years by 10E. Sites for most project institution are already owned by the Governme-_t, and in cases where sites have yet to be arquiired no difficulties are antici- pated; suitable sites will be provided in accordance with the proposed project implementation schedule (Section 3.10 of the draft Development Credit Agreement).  - 14 - The Project Planning Section (Project Unit), an administrative architectural/ engineering unit established within MOE for the implementation of three of the previous five IDA-financed education projects, would provide administrative and professional services for this project. Besides the IDA-assisted projects, the Project Unit administers other projects sponsored by other bilateral and multilateral agencies. The Project Unit would be responsible for the design, preparation of tender documents and supervision of construction works and procurement of furniture and equipment. Should it be found necessary to do so because of pressures of overlapping tasks, funds would be provided under the project for the Project Unit to appoint suitably qualified personnel on terms and conditions acceptable to the Association to complete specific tasks (Section 3.05 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 48. The Project Unit receives major technical assistance from the Danish International Development Agency and the Norwegian Agency for International Development, and both are expected to extend their technical assistance to cover the implementation period of the project. It has been agreed that the Project Unit would be adequately staffed throughout the project implementation period, and that adequate training programs would be provided for local staff (Section 4.03 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 49. In order to facilitate inter-ministerial coordination in project implementation, the staff of the Project Unit would include a representative of MOL. Furthermore, an implementation plan clearly defining tasks, lines of reporting and decision making, financing and local staff training for MOL and MOE would be prepared in consultation with the Association by June 1, 1979; implementation of the plan would begin thereafter (Section 3.06 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 50. Monitoring and Evaluation. In addition to the technical assistance provided under the project to conduct the pre-investment study for the Insti- tute of Education, funds would be provided to support a continuous project monitoring and evaluation system. Implementation would be through the Project Unit and the terms of reference for monitoring and evaluation activities would be submitted to IDA for comment by December 31, 1979 (Section 3.09 (c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). This item would build on earlier World Bank-Institute of International Educational Planning assistance provided to MOE for the training of evaluation personnel. Costs and Financing Plan 51. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$16.0 million equiv- alent. Project cost net of taxes and duties is US$14.4 million; US$8.3 mil- lion in foreign exchange and US$6.1 million in local currency. Items imported directly for the project would be exempted from taxes and duties. However, as most of the building material, fuel and vehicles for transport would be acquired by contractors on the open market, taxes and duties on these items, estimated to total US$1.6 million are included in the project cost. Details of the project cost are given in the Credit and Project Summary.  - 15 - 52. The proposed IDA credit of US$12.0 million equivalent would finance 83% of costs net of taxes and duties; 100% of foreign costs and 61% of local costs. Local cost financing is justified in Tanzania on country grounds (para 14). The Government would provide the balance of US$4.0 million equivalent, including taxes and duties. The maximum Government contribution to the project in any year, inclusive of taxation, is not expected to exceed US$2.2 million equivalent: this figure is about 4% of the education capital budget and is within the financial capacity of the Government. The recurrent expend- itures generated by the project would be about 2% of the estimated total ex- penditures of MOE in 1982/83, also well within the financial capacity of the Government. Procurement and Disbursement 53. Contracts for civil works, furniture and equipment, including vehicles, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines. The only exceptions would be any civil works costing less than US$250,000, the construction of facilities at Bagamoyo for MANTEP (where the estimated cost is approximately US$100,000), furniture and equipment contracts costing less than US$100,000 each, and local transportation services for furniture and equipment: contracts for these items would be awarded by local competitive bidding. Sketch designs, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture and equipment, including proposed grouping (to permit bulk procurement), would be reviewed by the Association. Tender evaluation documents would be reviewed prior to contract award except for building construction contracts costing less than US$250,000 each and for furniture and equipment contracts costing less than US$100,000 each. For the purpose of bid evaluation under international competitive bid- ding, qualified domestic building contractors would be allowed a preferential margin of 7.5%, and qualified domestic manufacturers of furniture and equip- ment would be allowed a preference of 15% or the existing rate of import duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing suppliers. 54. Disbursement of the IDA credit would be on the basis of (a) 70% of total expenditures for civil works; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures for directly imported furniture, equipment and vehicles; 85% of local expenditure ex-store for locally manufactured furniture, equipment and vehicles; 90% of local expenditures ex-factory for imported furniture, equipment and vehicles procured locally; and 90% for local transportation costs; (c) 100% of foreign expenditures and 70% of local expenditures for consultant services, studies, and monitoring and evaluation; and (d) 70% of total expenditures for project administration. Project Benefits and Justification 55. The proposed project would consolidate and strengthen the existing vocational training program by providing much needed equipment and accommoda- tion in two of the existing Vocational training centers. In addition, the quality of vocational and technical instruction would be improved nationally through the development of a vocational and technical education instructor training center. The proposed addition of boarding facilities would increase female participation in secondary technical education from 3% to 25%.  - 16 - 56. The project would also lead to an increase of about 70% over a five-year period in the output of middle level accountancy manpower, skills presently in great demand. Furthermore, as the institutional capacity for training managers and administrators of the education sector has been minimal, it is expected that the program for management training of educational per- sonnel would have a major effect on the quality and efficiency of the education system. The project would also provide institutional development support to the Institute of Education by preparing a long-term development plan for the Institute based upon an assessment of national curriculum development, re- search, and related training needs. 57. A significant percentage of project cost will finance boarding and staff housing: student boarding amounts to 38% and staff housing constitutes about 14% of the total project cost. The decision to recommend financing for these items reflects a judgment that adequate boarding and housing facili- ties are critical to the effective utilization of the institutions involved. Of total boarding, about 40% is for women's dormitories to increase the par- ticipation of women in technical education; an additional 20% is required for the vocational training centers where the lack of boarding has resulted in underutilization of the facilities; the remainder is needed to ensure regional equity for enrollments at national institutions. About half of the staff housing is required for the vocational training centers; these are viewed as essential to attracting qualified staff to these institutions. The bulk of the remainder is for the Dar es Salaam School of Accountancy which has faced severe recruitment problems due to the current housing shortage in Dar es Salaam. The housing standards to be used have been reviewed and found appro- priate. Risks 58. The project's emphasis on consolidation and quality improvement at a time when manpower planning is facing severe problems minimizes the risks of overproduction and misallocation associated with an expansionist project. Where expansion is the goal it has been with a focus on specific critical skill areas, e.g. bookkeepers and accountants where the needs are clear. The major risk in this project therefore lies more in its execution than in the areas chosen for support. Although three ministries (Finance, MOL and MOE) are involved in the project, the main responsibility for imple- mentation rests with the existing Project Unit of MOE. Close coordination among concerned ministries at the critical stages of design, tendering and procurement will therefore be necessary. Measures proposed to ensure the necessary coordination are described in para 49. Another potential problem is shortage of qualified staff required to run the various project-supported institutions. This issue was discussed in detail with the Government and a staff development plans would be developed for the vocational Instructor training center, the Dar-es-Salaam School of Accountancy and the management training of educational personnel program. These plans would be -submitted to the Association for comment by December 31, 1979 (Section 3.03 of the draft Development Credit Agreement).  - 17 - PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the United Republic of Tanzania and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1(d), of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 60. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. The adoption of a plan of action adequate to ensure the efficient training of accountants in Tanzania would be a condition of disbursement for that component of the project (para 43). 61. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 62. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Washington, D.C. November 29, 1978  -18- ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 TAN1AlIA -- SOCIAI. LND)r:ATOR3 D)ATA f.a:rT UERtR8HE rl' cPS 4A1)tH WSTED AVPEA('EI LAN) AREA (TliOUSAND SQ. ).) TANZANIA -;r LTcvs' 1i. A TOTAL 945.1 SAKI. SAP(i. NEXT liCiiEg8 AGRICULTURAL 508.3 3DST rICERT lEOCIJ.APHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIVIAE 1 IEGI(Al /c GROUP /d GRouP le GNP PER CtPITA (USS) 70.0 ,f 110.0 .Lf 200.0 if 223.6 182.9 432.3 ENERGY C0 sbuUPrTION -ER CArTIA (KILOGRAKS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 41.0 62.0 69.0 66.7 88.9 251.7 POPULATION AND VITAL STTI&STI.S TOTAL POPUl.ATION, M1D-5EAi (MIILLIONS) 9.6 If 12.9 If 15.5 /f URBAN POPULATION (PERCENr OF TOTAL) 4.6 5.5 7.3 13.6 15.0 24.2 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. I;M. 10.0 14.0 16.0 18.4 46.9 42.7 PER SQ. K!H. AGRICULTURAL LAND 20.0 26.0 30.0 53.6 254.1 55.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.5 ILA 44.4 /h 46.7 44.4 43.6 441.9 15-64 YPS. 55.5 L..A 53.0 Lh 50.9 52.7 53.3 52.8 65 YRS. AN13 ABOVE 2.0 /f.. 2.6 1h 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 POPULATIO?N GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.3 3.0 If 2.7 /f 2.6 2.4 2.7 URBAN 5.0 5.6 7.5 1T s.8 4.0 8.8 CRUDE BIRTH EAT_ (PER THOUSAP4D) 51.5 50.5 4i.0 46.9 44.3 42.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.1 23.0 20.1 20.6 19.7 12.4 GeOSs REPRODUCTION RATE .. 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEP-O.S. AhNNUL (THOUSANDS) .. .. .. USER' (lERCLNT OF IRLD WOMEN) .. .. .. 2.5 14.6 14.2 FOOD &KND F.IIITION INDEX OF FMOD PRODUCTION PrR CAlITA (1970-100) 91.6 100.0 107.5 94.2 96.4 104.3 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORlES (PFRCEST OP REEQUIRLKENTS) 69.0 8S.0 86.0 S0.1 92.3 99.5 PFOTEINS (GRAMS rEX DAY) 42.0 43.0 47.1 55.2 50.0 55.8 OF trUICE ON1IAL ANDI PULSE 22.0 Li 23.0 20.0 17.1 13.9 17.5 CqLD (AGES 1-4) M4ORTALITY RATE .. .. .. .. .. 7.5 H'IFLTE LlfE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEA/tS) 3f .7 41.8 44.5 43.7 45.B 53.3 INFANI H;ORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 190.0 160.0jl .. 138.4 102.7 S2.5 ACCESS TO SA'E WATER (PERCENT OF PDF ULATION) IOTAL .. 13.0 39.0 22.4 26.4 31.1 UREAN *- 61.0 88.0 66.3 63.5 68.5 RURAL *- 9.0 36.0 10.4 14.1 18.2 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DlSPOSAL (PERCE;T OF POPUILATION) TOTAL .. .. 17.0 23.9 16.1 37.5 URBAN .. .. 88.0 70.3 65.9 69.5 RDRL. .. .. 14.0 14.2 3.4 25.4 POPULATION PER PilYSICIAN 21750.0/f.k 21570.0 4,70760.0 /f 21757.5 13432.7 9354.2 kUrilAluim ErRk 8h.ub PERSCe; 9240.07iki 4.0 i SGGe.O ;. ;473.e 6^S;.; 72- POPULATIcEN PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 570.01f.k 700.0 If .. 645.4 1157.6 786.5 IRHAN .. .. .. 172.9 13.3 278.4 RKIAI, .. .. .. 1292.6 134P.8 1358.4 ADMISSIONS PER 11)SPITAL BSD .. .. .. 19.2 19.5 19.2 UIOVSINC AIERACE SIZE OF lI3USEHOLD TOTAL .. 4.4 /h .. 4.9 5.2 ITRBAN .. 3. 0 4 RURAL Zs 4.714 AVERAGE NUHLRAX OF PERSaIS PER ROOMI TCiAI .. .. .. . .. V RBN 1.8 j .. .. .. 1.8 2.3 RURAL .. .. .. ACCl:SS 0 E.lECTEIJCITX (PEP.CFI: AC? ysIOEL EU CP- VUELLI t:CS ) TOTAL. .. .. .. .. 25.9 28.3 URBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. .. 8.7 10.3  -19 - TABLE 3A ANNEX I TANZANIA SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET Page 2 of 5 REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES TANZANIA - MOST RFCENT ESTIMATE) SAME SAME NEXT HIGI1ER MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 24.0 35.0 57.0 * 52.1 62.9 75.8 FEMALE 16.0 28.0 46.0 * 37.6 45.9 67.9 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 14.4 17.7 FEKALE 1.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 8.8 12.9 VOCATIONAL (PERCENT OF SECONDARY) 23.0 .. .. 7.2 6.6 7.4 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRDtARY 45.0 47.0 53.0 * 43.2 38.5 34.3 SECONDARY 20.0 19.0 20.0 * 22.8 19.8 23.5 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 9.5 28.1 A 49.0 /I 20.3 36.7 63.7 CONSUMPITION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 3.0 2.5 2.6 3.9 3.1 7.2 RaDIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 2.0 11.0 16.0 40.1 31.1 71.1 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.3 .. 2.2 2.8 14.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION - 3.0 5.0 3.0 3.9 6.0 16.3 CINEMA ANNUAL ATrENDANCE PER.CAPITA 0.5 .. .. 1.2 1.4 1.6 EMPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 4900.0 lo 5600.0/f ,h6300.0 / FEMALE (PERCENT) 37.1 36.6 36.3 32.6 24.2 28.0 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 96.0 lo 91.0/Efh 83.1 73.3 60.7 54.1 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 3.8 5.0 .. PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 44.7 43.5 42.2 42.0 39.8 37.8 MALE 56.9 55.7 54.3 54.8 53.3 50.3 FEMALE 32.8 31.5 30.3 27.3 19.6 20.9 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.1 /o 1.2/f.h 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE ICOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 33.5 .. 25.7 20.3 19.5 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 63.3 *- 55.1 45.1 48.9 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 2.3 .. 5.8 '5.7 5.9 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 7.8 .. 14.5 16.8 15.7 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 117.0 108.8 88.5 155.9 RURAL .. .. 89.0 74.1 71.9 97.9 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVIRTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 146.0 124.4 100.8 143.7 RURAL *- - 45.0 59.6 42.0 87.3 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 25.0 26.8 46.0 22.9 RURAL .. .. 85.0 47.6 48.0 36.7 Not available * These are 1975 estimates. Data for 1978 are reflected Not applicable. in the Appraisal Report. NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not unifor-. lb Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, betveen 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1973 and 1977. 1c Africs South of Sahara; /d Low Income ($280 or less per capita. 1976); /e Lower Middle Income ($281-550 per capita. 1976); /f Mainland Tanzania; L& 1957; /h 1967; Li 1967-73; /L 1961-63; / 1962; /1 Registered, not all practice in the country; /m 1958, Zanzibar only; /n 1972; /o 1963. September 1978  -20-- ANNEX I _____N_T__________r_C_______________ Page 3 of 5 ote,: Alth-ahf the dare r dreun frau *ur.es genrallo judged rta mote .uthOrlttfo. .nd relisble. ii sh-ld .1- o me nted thi,t they may not be inter- slnllyreril oue Ofrh Ic Iot :rad::ar,dirdAdfInictio. and conepts ,,ed by diff,rent Cou-trIeo 1n cAl,cting the dAta. The data ar.. nosnethelese. uac citodc.rIh cier ofnenlrde hliet.trnd., and characterlee certsin mA or dl ffrehrc.. h-e-e outis P~'~ rhe i vr-d ~r"~,p .a frech Indicator are poymmlt1o";.wight.d geenori eas nldn t,crre...... fI,e, of Ithe _ind iatr and the cost popluird r. In mu>. r. _. Coter,rr ofet-tries mon the ind cat-r d:ep:nd. -r -cnlcllf'oo'I ;r d I,ntuifom etoc lak of dare ge..r-p rae tor Cap -ocry-. Oil Espor-- an ndi .tro arc... to wae n oceadeoal otn.incon di.trlburlo and p-vrt, are clyde youi,:to,-wefcse gemomari nnsicut th excuson f ntrrn osu .d -.d... htg iLAsoD &fiA :toso vo)Populatlon, cer h-pi.tel hbd -bal .nha. and rural - Population (totl.1 Tntul - Thta- sufaca urea -oPrisiog land area cod ihlaod octers, urban, and rotal) di'cidcd by their respective -ubef of hospital beds Mclcrua ost m.c.nt estImate of agricultural areas used to.porarily available to Public and pri-ate gen era and speclmLi-cd hospital and re- oyeee.tyfor crops, pastus's,, turkot and kitchen gardens o to hhl.I tato enters. . op ital o1re e.sablithnents per..nanenly staffed by lIe tallowI. atlat one Phycicla. Etotbli:ho...nto provIidng principally o.ctdial care are not inoloded. R-ra h.pitaIs ho-evr.-Include health med eedl- _N (OCf L M fl - GNP per capit estImtes at current market prices, Cal centers no pe-anetly otaffod by hynCioa (bu" yaeeta s falcuiate: by eune co-vr.lan method as Wend Senk Atlas (1975-77 baais); t .nus,mdw,ife. etc. which offer in-pacisot arcormodao and J'i6o. 197l n c7 as previd. . limited Iaue of edica f cilitis Admissions per hospita1 bed - totLI somber cf admissions tc sr discharges ZLOINEGY C00NiL7'yhlOf PER CAPITA - Annual cossuaptl0n cf icomercial soerg froin hospitals divided by the somber of beds. ICoal and :Lgnite. Petroleum, natural gaa and hydra- *nuclear and geo- thermal -lotnlcity) is kilcgram f co ral equivalent par capita. IiousiOlc A,or.ge mice of household (persons noer household) - total, urban. and total1- POM..ATION y2'7 VITAL STATISTICS A hous. ehld consists ci a group of individuals who share living quarters tota po.talor rt--Y..' (etl11.io) - A. of July 1; if set eAyllabl*. and tbh. mi mas A boarder or lodger may Cc may mst he included In aveCags c. e v-eretocs 1960, 1970, and 1Oly ata,the hosehold for ststlatical purposes. Statistical definitlens of house- Urb.n p.pulatten (orotoftotl)- CRtoIiuba o ca ppl- hl y tlan; dif-erent ded"oltlu- of urban areas a aYfftcouparblllty Aeg ebrofPar,e,, pet roo. -ttlurban, and rc.rL - Average sum- of data moog cootis.hrefpron.e.ro s l.uban, and roral occupiad coventia...l. PPo_lol1ato 7doqisiy duallisgg, respettively. Dwuellinsg exclade son-permanemt atrccur.s and Per ,c. ho. - Old-year populstiso per sqsare kilocetcer (100 hectare.) unoccupied parts. of total area. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Access to electricity (Percant of dw'ellins) Ctotl. urban. and urot: Pe 9c.Ic.aricultotre 1esd - Computed as ahoy. fer agricultural land C...e.tcnl..I d.ellings wIth electrIcity In living quarters.&a percentage nly. ofci ttal, urban, and rucal duelling. respectively. Population gos tscroute -percent) - Children (0-lA years), working-age (1l-64 years), and retired (A5 yaars and over) am percentages of mid- EDUCATION Ter PpOpcZ;loo Adjusted enrolln...t ratios Populatio.n robrte(percent) - total, and urban - Concymund annualPiayscol ttl.adfsl - Ttstl and femiale -nrIAnt fi al, ages growth rues of trcra. and urban eid-yaac populatlosn for 1950-Al. at the primary le-el as percentages of rsspectively primary .chool-age 196-0,nd 107-TI peplaros cersly inclodem childrea aged h-1l years hut adjusted for Crd -irh at per tosn)- Anaua1 live bitths par thousand ofdipfflernt sngothm of prilnacy d.cation( fot countries with universal edo- mid-year ypitn;ten-year aritfutecl averages ending in 1960 and Cation enrrelmeo tray .cced hO0 percent aisc* acme pupils are belowc or 197ad fIve-year average ending in 1975 for most r....ot estimate, above the official school age. Cr-lr death rare (pev iho.... d) - Annual. deaths per thb.....d of mid- Secondxry School - total, and female1 - Computed as above; secondary educe- year populatic%l tent-year a-itetic avetages ending in 1960 and 1070 tion requie at ltfor yerss appro-ed prleay instruction; .ro- and fi--vr average ending in 1975 for meet fc.cot estimate. vide enrel v Ccuticnal ory Iceabr trainicg instructions for pupils iross t*oroloc tion rates-Av.eraga number if.d;ught:r:cs a oc.,n sill heer ucually of 12 to 17 ye.ar of age; correspondence tcuraae art generally inhr Ira eepreiucti ve Perodi bs ecpriencspresast go- excluded. specific fertility rates; usuaily fins-year averages ending is 1960, Vereienl enrollment (percent ofaterndary) - Vecatisnal 'aiuin n 1970. and :975.C1dud technica. industrial. or other progres whic-h Operate independently famil piactIn - aceptos, anual(rl" neu.d S) - Annual number oi or as depart ..nts of secondary instituticon "cYpor of it-cnrs dvces under upcsof national family PuoPIit hnbr rtias - Prirury. and a.oday- Itlsuet noldi plannIng rogr.m. primacy and sccndarY lsv.els divided by numbers of teachers is the.are faiy lncn _ users fpercent of rrciad women) - Permectag. of apanding lees. marriled tues of child-heating age (15-4A years) who use birth-control. Adult literacy a.ts (percent) - Literate adults (able to read sod writs) as ds-ice. to all married woman in mamae age group. a psrcmstag. cf total adult population Aged 15 years mod over. FOOD ADli ffPtTION2 C0NSL'IPTiON Index of foxd trodoct.on per c-pita (1970-100) - Ind" somber of par Passeenger Cars (per thou.snd Population) - Passenger care comprise motor cars tmpteen Ia productio adal d co-moditla. seating less them might pesrons; maclode. Ambulances, hoeasees and military yet ,slaspl of caorIe (esrceto r.ccirem.nts) - Csmputed itmrshols enrdg.y.ryuuvae uf st foad supplias vcailabls in coutry per capita Radio receivers (.ot thousacd ovoulation) - All ty'pem ci rec.ivers for radio per da. Available supplies comprise domesti,c production, imrports loss broadcasts tC. generalt public yet thousand uf population; sacldes, unlicens.ed espects. and changes in stock, Net supplies oxclude animal feed, seeds, receivers i. countites end 10 years whes registration cf.radio sets .sm in quan.tities mmcd in food processing. and losses in diatribution, Re- Affect; data for recent years "m at c he comparable sicce M.set Countries quiceceets wets "ntimt byPAO hasad cn phoslolcgical needs for nor- abolished 1lc.naiog. ,al ativity andseath Yonideriog sovirornntI tanparaturm, body TV receivers Coer thous.endpylain TV tecelvere fmr broadcast to ge...rto _eights, ageand sa Intribticas of population, and allowing 10 per- pablic.peratho"usard.fopulatioc; encoudes unlicensed TV receivers Cs ceun- cent or coe at ousehld levl tries and inyaswhnrgsration of TV sets was Inefct Per capita splof frtein (crmsou ce day) - Protein content of Pa per Osraecirculation (per hbsusad population) - hosth average circula- napit ar net uPpl o: I1 food yet day. :;et supply of fond is defined as tie. of 'daily general Intere.t ..t.spaper". defined as a periodical publi- shove . Requiraaests for all countries established by UODA provide for tcitio devoted primarily to re..ording genrarl sews ft is.csid red to a i.inc allowance of 60 grams s total protein per day sod f0 grams bs "daily" If it upp.rs at least four times a .omek or a- sInan.cd pulse prsteis. ci which 10 grant should he animal protein. Cinens annual a ttendance n r carpiC Parr-sr - $asod os the number of tickets mes st-umiads are lwethus t hosefi7) grams of total protein and Icd dutiht the year. Inlu~ding adnimpaeis tc drive-ic cinetes, and obil. 221 gram faia rti sa average fc cr whorld, propose.d by uis FAT 1 ins thl.ird 'forld fee lotvs. Percait rntlnsanl ionanimal sod pul.e-Prti supply of food EMPLOYMEN0T derived frcs sel n pu:lses in frame p5t day. Total labor force toons E ..on.mIcally active p.rasns, iacluding armed Chl (oe -) noftait, eas(per tho..asd) - a.nuI deaths per those- forces and unemplcyed hut e.cluding housewives, studenis, ec.. D.fini- and inZ agaroop 1-. years. to children In this age group. tlons in various countries are not Comparable. femaele (perer - F.-I.e labor force as parcau.a. o. f total Ilabcr feroc HEL-Hgariutr i.. cegrc ..ti - L.bcr force in farming. foeascrY. hunt ing e fiehir Lif espctoocy at hirth 'Yeas" Average nuber oi years of life as percentage ci total1 labor icrce. r-maiEin. at hirtC;;rus-mlyfive-ye.r averages ending lv 1960. 1970. Intdustrv (oer0reni - Labor forete mInIng, osruto,manufacturing And and 1975.eetii. .wate and guuspcntg f teta1 labar fcre.. In fant mortalIty -tut fret theu-and) - Annual death. oi infants under Particiratioc rate Cp.rz emf tota, male, sod feomale - Total, male, and .ms year ofagpathuad10 rt. female labor force a. pe1rcetuies of their cespe.ctiv. populations. Aces to saf ctr (torrento I't:,._tIeI total. atban. end rural - Theac are tLO,s adjuatnu p-rtieiystiom, rates reflerring a-80ena u-ber oi ;peo.l roa. ubas, and rural ) with reasonable acesccc. st ructre of the populatio. endc long time trend. safe utter supply -' c'nide9 treatesd suriace caters or untreated but Ecosonic dere-denon ratio - ratio of popuiatisv under 15 and 65 and over to u_cont..nty.od watersuh a htfromCpoeidbrbos.srns he labor fort. in age group of 15-hi yeare ad ... 1ttwlt sPeretgso0f Cbetiv respectivepopalatirs.. .0 5 ubu ape aynlic fi.u.ain orCsadyt located net roetlC-!DfTfL'1t then 201 osert f a hou- saybh cons.ideIre a being wthi tea -Percentao1 of frivare intone (both in cash and hind) received by richest 5 scohiea:osuoftat hom. IInralre.'reasonabl ccess ..ould p,crcent. rmcho C 0 percent. poorest 20 perceot. and pocr..t 40 percent Loyly tia: 'ce h-mo-ife or %embero of the house:hold dv mot hav- to of h .... olds. ,rend alnrprtlaut part of thedainfihing the featly's Access to s - oouIcsa vret ct ooutIitiLn)- talurban. and F.tt!m.-d uc-lote Povery tcon le-e (US$ per caPita) - urbn and rural- rut.-. - zo of p,,;o (totl uri v. adrura) etrvad by .. rcrAtaAonsots povertY i-c-e -'te is trot income level below which a stoial 'usponla: ersc.t rri rsotu poyubatloe "arrsnuritionally ad.quat. fbI- plua eseta mOn-food r.quicremets is not Orte-s of pit feb li. -nd eliia- io-tall.C1atin. rltv oetyicy is that 1scoma lavel lea. themanen-third uho ca ocainJvn innu fpacuo e aiaprae noao tha .00t". si -!. 1ua te!d from a sdi-ci -nonl t -vi-erity fe1. fe Lstrteat "c"fn.nhboyvtyicnaini~,eetf urban and rural- L,Z ItIl ;i'ctrv - t.n-Popular ion dbid.d by numeber of f-c fppltion (urban and .rurl) who ae sitier 'absolute peer" or ptatfc:.;toutt (co. graduate .o.r.... fr-ctica1 ..r.... ond "refativa pnor" hchi -rve is great..r. tronomi and JbikStsPve  -21- ANNEX, :I _A___I Page -4of 5 7c36a02c 21V~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.0F3~~~~~~~rr 363A 29032 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ i9a- 2,, '.974 1973 .9 7 1 977 198 297 I '.990 J385 150 1.97 3 :960 383 ;or Mr1 2384.21 26.6. 2612.2 27 37 .6 28 76.1L 3026. 3 3183. 1 La?07.3 5229. 9 S. 1 3.1 3.3 L00.0 I.S.o 0~~~~~~ of ,.,2ofl ~~~~~~~74.9 ) 68. 7 299 109.0 73.0 -8.2 -40.3 -L03.1 -168. 1 -3.1L o. ~~~~~~~o.. ~~~~~~~ 34 ~~~~~2439.1 23 78.I 2.a2. . 2346. 6 28996.1 3018. 7 3140.8 a 009.1 3163.3 4.3 3 .3 3 .0 96. 9 611.1 736.2 182.a 743.7 '90._7 30. 37 .7 966. 1 190.2 3.6 4.0 3.3 22. 3 0 . .t *6i 4170.0 507.7 037. 7 333. 3 574.. 9. 0. 783 14. 0.71 3.9 4.810 95 5 T .413.0 344.8 4,39.2 587.35 662.35 5 33.3 8. 578.0 686.4 375.0 -..31 .4.4 3.3 1. 7 oo* . 2A ! 4oo." 366.3 317.3 ,124.3 91. 1 193.3 732.31 239. 7 310.0 313.3 . 39 8. 2oC.1 1oo8.~~~~~~~~~~~~~1o~~~ 2318. 0 2176.1 2200.1 2303.4 2481. 2386 .4 3732.8 342.1.6 43.1.7.3.70. 9. b..o 07.3 319.0 356. 4 344.. 601.2 634.3 677.9 893.5 11835.0 6.0 3.6 3.7 Z233 10. 79.81.. 2l 39 193.3 360.9 330.9 529.3 1.92.9 3 14.8 7 03.9 - .6.3 948. a .0.0 -1.6 3. 7 17.3 11. ~~~~~~.11o SC~~~~~~~.t64 ~~~~1,41.1 202.0 382. 3 463.3 417.0 3. 41U8.1 383.35 86.7 .. 3361. M3 3P 48 C OS 9 2246.3 2303.9 3706.8 3387.3 3943 .9 4323.3 4870.2 5 814.1 1604.3.0 MP32 . 1974676 5 o. 17.3 153. 1.3. 16.0 163 1.7 1. 9.3 2 2.8 6.37. 8.3 g~~~~1eo.1~~~~~~~~. 38.0 48~~~~~~~~~~.3 40.2 39.3 18.6 37.5 37.3 34.3 31.4 2.4 3.3 3.2 3. s..,~~~~~~~~~~~~~o.. ~~~~~~46.3 44.0 463 4.7 .5.1 15.3 43.6 .6.2 46.3 3.6 53. .3. ?93C2S I 1976..76 . 1303 1. Zo,9 3,00. :4.A- 99 1 90.7 112.6 137.2 129.3 132.. 133.0 177.9 243.1 -.3. 6.- :o976 . 1d.. 60.3 1.04.9 1306.7 124.6 1.24.3 134.3 144.5 204.3 288.3 .0. 3. Z.- 97-4. :"- 112.3 96.3 1.00.3 :19.7 '134.2 98.6 93.2 97.4 94.0 .. P D3. -480 .00 94.1 103.3 L03. 1323.0 137.1 14.3 53.0 214.6 201 .3 . 7.3 7.3 0. A--q.5 I.48 - 90 220 613100 7.143 7.414 9.379 1960-72 1974-76 17-6 9-0 1.:Cox 3.6 4.3 4.1 4. in00 -1U011. 1.8 .3.4 1.1 . 3. m09 0.0 618 4 2/ 13.5 9.7 14.6 14.8 90010.o3 46.1066 9.48* 1.' 1.3.2 1~~~ ~ ~~0:.9 17.4 16.6 3. w-10 U.I1o1 S-t.1.. U.. 3.15 .2 I0. 0. i. :.w~~~~~./ CDP ~383 317 26.8 24.1 18.7 21.3 29~~~-.9 21.31 U. J..r. 3.P/00Y 3.2 10.9 i.2 7.4 1. 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~973 2. P1o9-0 12. 00..) 100.0 ~~~~~~ 2'~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 511111.10 000123..) ~1!65/6 1.970/7 i970/73 i973/71 1973/74 1,974/75 1972/76 2976377 3.o,o 9o..~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. ~~~716 1683 189 2337 3023 3946 3919 .762 1 2.6 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 6~~~~02 2364 1431 1927. 2608 3161 3302 4163 -. 1.r.8 .690.c.73 33 1781 2323 2783 3961 3716 am40 3.1L 34._.1 Z040.0o67 333 S"4 749 94 61 L1137 J. 1st _ 0 80g 9 52 79 134 230 .2.5 203 362 700.196 .~~~~~~~~~~~~~.866 .. 38~~~~~~~~~~I 12 214, 37 64.3 1660 3.7.1090.68 ~~~~~~~~~c.017~~~~. .. 00~~~~ 117 196 .3 -30 648 2022 D. j..:. 9~.. 39 - 89 984 69 4 2223.. 1233 3709 7. 30.r.11 3.01010 .787 .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40'I -.90 .863 140 4687 2.0000.6 40.0. ~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~33 270 347 456 .67 ,61 ~SC03 -0064: 234. 236 2069 3446 .2 00o00-0.Om .. ~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~313 164 31 327 7 33 1/ ~~.010 06.166. 68 0 7000060690 of 000.6 3~~~~~.010 406. 000u  -22- TANZAM4% ANNEX I SJUXNCE or ?AYMSrrs AS'o MMz .iSSISTANCE Page 5 of 5 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 :985 L990 A. Sl OF 3ALANC! OF ?9AY2f4T2 1. Exporrs (Uncn. 747s) 465.9 460.7 605.5 759.7 742.7 787.8 537.3 1402.39 232 9 2. rmports (incl. fFS) 779.0 793.5 727.9 S52.8 970.5 :086.3 1213.5 2036.1 3429.2 3. Resou.irce B 313.1 -332.3 -U22.4 93.0 227.8 298.5 -376.2 533.7 -908.2 4. 4at Factor Srvtct Income -8.8 -10.3 -24.6 -21.1 -18.7 -21.J -27.3 -75.3 -L43.8 1. At lancrest Pymencs of uhich -13.6 -16.1 -18.3 -16.1 -13.7 -L6.0 -22.3 -65.3 -.33.S Interest an ?ubllc It & LT7 1a-Ss (- 11.1) (-U.5) (-15.1) (-17.6) (-20.2) (-27.7) (-79.1) (-561.9) 2. 2rect Inv ttncan 7 C C C ( C C ( 3. orkars aimttance (Net) (4.8 (5.8 (-5.3 (-5.0 (-5.0 (-5.0 (-5.0 (-10.0 (-LO.0 4. Othe raFccorSavineIoce_ (lr) ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 5. Current Transfers (Net) 30.1 71.0 77.9 94.9 110.4 129.4 L47.9 235.6 362.5 6. Balance on Currenc ccount -291.8 -272.1 -69.1 -L9.2 -136.1 -190.1 -255.7 -473.4 -6d9.6 7. Privaet Direcc n"s.nt 24.5 27.5 12.3 20.0 20.0 24.0 28.0 35.0 35.3 Public M 4 LT Loans 8. Dtsburx-m-nts 1/ 143.1 229.9 116.8 215.3 187.2 271.6 313.5 328.2 3L8.7 9. oirt