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India - Kerala Agricultural Development Project

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Document of The World Bank L PY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-1953-IN REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE z c: o z M INTEFNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION U X C TO THE 07 EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS Z ON A 0 0 PROPOSED CREDIT tQ m TO THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 03 FOR THE KERALA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT February 3, 1977 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance "f their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as at January 12, 1977) Rs 1.00 = Paise 100 US$1.00 = Rs 8.91 Rs 1.00 = US$0.1122 Rs I million = US$112,-200 (Since September 24, 1975, the Rupee has been officially valued relative to a "basket" of currencies. As these currencies are now floating, the U.S. Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions in the Appraisal Report were made at US*1 to Rs 9.00.) FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 List of Abbreviations and Acronms Used in this Report ARDC - Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation CPCRI - Central Plantation Crops Research Institute GOI - Government of India GOK - Government of Kerala IRB - Indian Rubber Board KDOA - Kerala Department of Agriculture PCC - Project Coordination Committee SADU - Special Agricultural Development Unit FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTLVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR KERALA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to the Government of India (GOI) in an amount equiva- lent to US$30 million, to help finance an agricultural development project in the State of Kerala, mainly for the improvement of tree crop agriculture with particular emphasis on the betterment of the economic status of the smallholders. For lending to farmers for the development of small holdings, to State Electricity Board for irrigation pump energization, Plantation Cor- poration of Kerala for cashew development, and cooperatives for rubber pro- cessing facilities, funds would be channeled through GOI to the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) at 6.75% minimum annual interest for lending of up to 9 years, and at 7.25% minimum interest for lending of 9 to 15 years. For other development works, funds would be channeled through GOI to Government of Kerala, Indian Rubber Board and Central Plantation Crops Research Institute according to the standard terms and arrangements for GOI financing of State development projects. 1/ PART I - THE ECONOMY- 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (1073-IN dated March 29, 1976), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 2, 1976. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is exceptional among the Bank Group's member countries for its size and diversity; the country is divided into more than 20 States with a population of some 600 million and over 60 languages. The country's poverty and inadequate domestic savings, together with a net transfer of external resources averaging over the past five years only about US$1.20 per person per annum, have imposed sharp limitations on the rate of growth. Account must be taken, also, of the uncertainties imposed by the erratic availability of water. A bad monsoon, which is likely to occur about two years out of every five, has a pervasive influence over the entire economy and can wipe out the results of years of efforts. Thus, the annual growth of national income over the last five years (1971/72 - 1975/76), which included two consecutive mon- soon failures, has averaged only 2% per annum, less than the rate of popula- tion increase. 4. Since Independence, progress has been impressive on many fronts, but disappointing on others, and generally has fallen short of India's mas- sive needs. The growth of the socio-economic infrastructure (transport, 1/ Parts I and II of this report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report for the Bombay Urban Transport Project (Report No. P-1898-IN), dated October 13, 1976. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - 2 - education, health services, etc.) has been impressive, but has often been achieved at high cost and has yielded results of variable quality. Many industrial and agricultural investment schemes have been highly successful, but others have taken excessively long to be completed and have operated well below full capacity. In some regions of the country, growth and struc- tural change have been rapid and compare favorably with developments in many other parts of the world,.but in other regions there has been stagnation and possibly even decline. Although national income has increased in most years, there has been in general little impact upon the living standards of the vast masses of the urban and rural population. In recent years, the Government has initiated a variety of programs specifically directed toward helping the lower income strata, which - conservatively measured - consist of some 200 million people with incomes of less than US$60 per head per year. 5. The structure of the economy has been slow to change. Agriculture remains the dominant sector, with its share of national product declining only gradually from about 50% to 42% over the last twenty years. The share of industry has increased only slowly and, since the late 1960s, has remained approximately constant at about 23%. There has, however, been a shift in the composition of industrial production, with consumer, intermediate, and capital goods now contributing about one third each, compared with an overwhelming preponderance of consumer goods 25 years ago. Recent Trends 6. India entered 1975/76 having been through one of the most difficult periods since Independence. Progress in dealing with long-term development problems had been limited by poor crops, the dramatic shifts against India in the terms of trade, and inflation. Adjustments to these immediate difficul- ties thus became the principal preoccupation in economic management. However, with the support of favorable weather and additional foreign assistance, it now appears that India has successfully weathered the problems of the recent past; once again there is the basis for an upturn in the growth rate of the economy. 7. Most important among the favorable factors have been a bumper har- vest which followed years of poor or modest agricultural output. Foodgrain production in 1975/76, estimated at around 117 million tons, exceeded the previous record of 1970/71 by 8%. Oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton also reached new production peaks and provided ample supplies for the agro-industries. In 1976/77 a good harvest is again expected of at least 110 million tons of food- grains. Secondly, deficiencies in the supply of basic commodities and of in- frastructural inputs such as energy and transport, which had been prevalent in the past, have been eased. Electricity generation and domestic production of coal, oil, cement and steel all increased by over 10% during 1975/76 and by a further 15% in the first eight months of 1976/77. Finally, the increased supply of agricultural and industrial products and of services, together with the demand restraint imposed by the Government since mid-1974, put a virtual stop to inflation. From April 1975 to March 1976 the Wholesale Price Index fell by 8.1%. Although from April to September 1976 the Index rose by 11%, it was still 5% lower in September 1976 than in September 1974. - 3 - 8. On the balance of payments front there have been a number of en- couraging developments. Firstly, the rapid build-up of foodgrain stocks to a level of 17 million tons by December 1976 provides a buffer against the impact of a future crop failure on the balance of payments and has reduced current import requirements. Secondly, despite generally unfavorable world trading conditions, export earnings rose by 9% in 1975/76, and seem likely to rise by more than this in 1976/77. Thirdly, the value of petroleum imports was stabilized in 1975/76 (although there is likely to be a rise in 1976/77), and steel imports have been progressively reduced in 1975/76 and 1976/77 as a result of increased domestic production. Finally, increased production and lowered world prices have reduced fertilizer import values quite sharply. As a result of these factors, imports rose only 5% in value in 1975/76 and the trade deficit fell by almost $100 million. Developments so far in 1976/ 77 suggest a more dramatic improvement in the trade balance this year. More- over, since net aid rose 49% in 1975/76 and India received substantial in- flows of private remittances during the past one and a half years, reserves rose by almost $800 million in 1975/76, and are continuing to rise at a com- parable rate in 1976/77. These reserves give India added flexibility in adjusting to a higher rate of growth in the future. Development Prospects 9. While many of the most acute problems were eased during 1975/76, longer-term constraints to growth remain. Many of these have existed for some time, but their importance had been temporarily overshadowed by the more overwhelming limitations imposed by supply shortages and balance of payments problems. One such constraint is the deficiency of demand for a large seg- ment of the manufacturing industry. Consequently, in the midst of adequate supplies during 1975/76, the use of manufacturing capacity - especially for consumer durables - remained low. In the short and medium term, the two most promising ways of stimulating demand are to boost public investment and ex- pand exports. Both avenues are currently being pursued by the Government. During 1975/76, real Plan outlay rose by 18-20%, after having fallen during each of the previous two years. The 1976/77 Budget proposed a further in- crease of 16% in real terms and introduced new measures to stimulate invest- ment in the private sector. Investment priorities remained the same as in 1975/76, namely agricultural development and increased production of critical industrial inputs, such as power, coal, oil, and iron and steel. The Budget also stressed the importance of exports as an essential condition for sus- tained stability in the balance of payments. 10. In agriculture, the basic problem remains that, despite the record foodgrain crop in 1975/76, the long-term growth rate of foodgrain production in India has been unacceptably low, at about 2.3% per annum over the last 15 years. This is about the same as the rate of population increase. Starting from a situation of deficit, this has meant that only in good years has there been a significant margin of production to cater to any per capita growth in consumption, and even in normal years it has been necessary to rely on stocks or imports to meet any growth in demand. With a major effort to expand the irrigated area and provide complementary inputs, the average growth rate of foodgrain production could be substantially increased. This is essential, not only because of the necessity to meet food requirements without unmanage- able consequences for the balance of payments but also because of the strong influence of agriculture on the levels of activity in other sectors of the economy. Even with a higher growth rate of foodgrain production, imports will still be required. However, in relation to India's total consumption of foodgrains, the dependence on imports has been and will remain small. In the past, domestic production has accounted for almost 100% of supplies in good weather years and about 90% when harvests were poor. 11. The energy sector in India was characterized by shortages even before the international oil crisis developed. The dramatic hike in oil prices, coinciding as it did with the accentuation of electric power shortages - caused in part by low hydroelectric generation due to poor monsoons - led to an acceleration of measures to improve performance of existing facilities and to a much higher priority for investments in the energy sector. The effects of these measures, aided by the good monsoon, are now starting to be felt. Coal production has increased by 10% or more in each of the last two years, and, partly as a result of this, power shortages and restrictions have been greatly reduced. The medium-term prospects for oil and natural gas have improved with the delineation of the offshore Bombay High field. Crude production from this field is expected to be 1 million tons in 1976/77 and to reach 6 million tons by the end of the Plan period. On this basis, petroleum imports are projected to start declining in 1978/79, as increased crude production and expanded refinery output more than offset increases in demand. 12. In the past, export growth was affected in varying degrees by in- adequate profitability, lack of access to imported inputs, poor quality, instability of the policy environment and vulnerability to ad hoc decisions. In addition, for agricultural commodities export taxes were significant. For some homogeneous commodities, such as iron ore and tea, inadequate sup- plies or limited world demand have been important constraints. In recent years, mainly because of the large trade deficit, the Government's emphasis on export promotion has intensified. As a result, although the fundamental orientation of India's industrial and trade policy and the specific instru- ments of the export regime have, by and large, remained the same, a signi- ficant shift in emphasis and in the way these policies are operated has oc- curred. These are likely to lead to a better utilization of current export potential and reflect a willingness to make policy adjustments, when neces- sary, to expand exports. 13. While it is difficult to assess the impact of the new measures in an area where policy is already very complex, some improvement has already taken place and further improvement in medium-term performance seems likely. An annual real export growth rate of over 7% should be feasible, compared to an average of 5% over the last five years. However, to achieve a higher export growth over the long run, more far-reaching policy measures will be required, including the introduction of a more uniform and more stable sys- tem of export incentives. Even so, the export drive might be impeded by controls in some developed markets. - 5 - 14. India's balance of payments problems should be manageable over the next few years, even with the repayment obligations resulting from re- cent short-term OPEC and IMF borrowings. The worldwide inflation has bene- fitted India by reducing the proportion of export earnings that have to be devoted to debt service. India's debt service ratio has come down from 31% in 1970/71 to 17% in 1975/76. Provided the real growth of exports remains at about 7% per annum, the debt service ratio is unlikely to rise much above 20% in the foreseeable future. On the import side, given the adequate level of stocks on hand at the end of 1975/76 and assuming normal weather condi- tions, annual foodgrain imports could be kept to 5-6 million tons during the next three years. Within the general category of non-food imports, India has substantial medium-term import substitution opportunities for three major items -- petroleum, fertilizer and steel -- which constituted more than 60% of imports in 1975/76. If the medium-term targets for production in these areas are achieved, the total expenditure on these three import items in 1978/79 need not be any higher than in 1975/76 and could quite conceiva- bly be less. Provided the Government is willing to liberalize imports and donors continue to respond to India's needs, the easing in the external payments situation presents an opportunity to raise the level of investment (complemented by larger imports of capital goods, components, and raw materials) and, consequently, reach a more satisfactory level of long-term growth. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 15. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 49 loans and 80 development credits to India totalling US$1,751 million and US$4,112 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$785 million has been repaid, and US$1,651 million was still undisbursed as of December 31, 1976. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of December 31, 1976, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 16. Since 1957, IFC has made 14 commitments in India totalling US$58.4 million, of which US$11.9 million has been repaid, US$7.6 million sold and US$6.9 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$32.0 million, US$25.5 mil- lion represents loans and US$6.5 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of December 31, 1976, is also included in Annex II (page 2). 17. In recent years, the emphasis of Bank Group lending has been on agriculture. The-Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit opera- tions. Major irrigation, marketing, seed development, and dairying are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterp rises. IDA financing of industrial raw materials and components for selected priority sectors has been instrumental in facilitating better capac- ity utilization in industry. The Bank Group has also been active in support- ing infrastructure development for power, telecommunications, and railways. - 6 - Family planning, education, water supply development, and urban investments have also received Bank Group support in recent years. 18. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, industry, power, urban development and water supply remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs such as credit for on-farm investments, command area development of existing irrigation schemes, intensification and streamlining of extension systems, and seed production form an important aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to projects benefitting small farmers. Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, and urban development also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infrastructure and industrial investments will focus on agriculture-, export- and energy-related projects. 19. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic re- ports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in large part to the response of the aid community, India has successfully adjusted to the changed world price situation. However, the basic need for readily usable foreign exchange assistance, to augment domestic resources, stimulate investment and accelerate economic growth, remains. Bank Group lending for critical industrial raw materials and components continues to be an important element within the overall program of assistance. As in the past, Bank Group assistance for projects in India should include, as appropriate, the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity of the domestic capital goods industry. The import component of projects tends to be especially low in such high-priority areas as agriculture, education, and family planning. For the Bank Group to be able to make an appropriate contribution to the financing of projects in these sectors, it is important to cover a proportion of local expenditures. 20. It is clear from the review of the Indian economy that as much as possible of India's external capital requirements should be provided on con- cessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support, and some Bank lending to India, for which the country is creditworthy, is appropriate. As of June 30, 1976, the loans to India held by the Bank totaled US$701 million, of which US$266 million remained to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstand- ing of US$435 million. 21. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with an estimated 58%, 24% and 29%, respectively, in 1975/76. On March 31, 1976, India's outstanding and disbursed - 7 - external public debt was US$13.1 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was 25%. The Bank Group's share is expected to remain around this level in the future. Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1975/76, about 15% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group. PART III - AGRICULTURE IN KERALA General 22. Kerala, the southernmost State of India, is a long narrow coastal strip between the Arabian Sea and the Western Ghats. Population density in Kerala, exceeding 550 per sq. km., is three times the national average. Per capita income is somewhat below the national average. Agriculture in Kerala, as in most States in India, is the mainstay of its economy. It provides employment to 60% of the working population and generates 58% of the State income. It is, to a large extent, a smallholder operation as almost two-thirds of the holdings do not exceed half a hectare. Some 60% of the State territory is cultivated and the scope for expansion is severely limited by topographic factors. Tree Crops 23. Commercial tree crops, grown mainly by smallholders in 70% of the State's cropped area, dominate Kerala's agriculture. Kerala and, to a lesser extent, the two other Southern States of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka account for nearly all of the national production of tree crops other than tea. Kerala accounts for most of India's production of pepper (98%), rubber (92%), coconut (67%), and cashew (84%), and for sizeable shares of cardamom (47%) and areca- nut (36%). Cashew and pepper are important Indian export items, yielding US$110 million and US$38-million respectively, Kerala accounts for over 90% of these exports. However, yields of the tree crops have been much below potential and are declining. Continued decline in production would adversely affect the lives of many of the State's rural families. 24. -Coconut is grown on about 25% of Kerala's cropped area, about two- thirds of the total coconut area in India. Apart from providing nuts for domestic food consumption, Kerala produces some 300,000 tons or 90% of the country's copra. Of this copra, 50% is milled in the State in more than 1,100 oil mills. The coir industry, based on coconut husk, provides direct employment to more than .600,000 people, mostly women. The crop also produces 300,000 tons of coconut shell used mainly as fuel. 25. The,average size of coconut holding is less than 0.5 ha. The growers follow mostly traditional cultivation methods. The yields are low and have declined sharply in recent years. Current yields per ha average - 8 - 4,000 nuts as against 6,000 nuts in 1969/70. Yields from existing gardens could be increased by more than 100% if improved cultural practices are adopted by the farmers. A 50% yield increase can be achieved by irriga- tion in the dry season. Although proper fertilizer applications can double crop yields, only about 10% of the smallholders apply fertilizers. About a third of the area under coconuts has been badly affected by root-wilt and leaf rot disease, for which the Central Plantation Crop Research Institute and GOK have commenced remedial steps. 26. Cashew is planted on 105,000 ha of land, from which Kerala produces 118,000 tons of raw cashew. There is great scope of increasing yields by means of improved cultural practices. India produces a total of 140,000 tons of raw nuts, and imports the remainder of the raw nuts processed in the country. Import decreased from 193,000 tons in 1972 to 116,000 tons in 1975, because India's main suppliers, Mozambique and Tanzania, are developing their own processing facilities. In Kerala, there are 264 cashew processing fac- tories employing some 125,000 workers. 27. Pepper is grown on 120,000 ha of land, mainly by smallholders. In Kerala average yield per hectare is very low at 250 kg compared with 1,000 kg obtained from plantations in Indonesia. This low yield is due to unimproved varieties, overaged vines, diseases and inadequate cultural practices. GOK is encouraging farmers to replant with higher yielding varieties and adopt improved cultural practices. 28. Rubber plantings in India increased by about 50%, to almost 225,000 ha, during the twelve years ending 1975/76. More than 90% of this is in Kerala. Though rubber yields improved from 365 kg/ha in 1961 to 760 kg/ha in 1975, the scope for further improvement is considerable. GOI's intention is to increase the annual production by 60%, from the present 130,000 tons to 205,000 tons, in 1985. This will meet less than 50% of the estimated domes- tic demand. Rubber, like other tree crops in Kerala, is grown predominantly by smallholders. Existing processing facilities for smallholders are inade- quate and, for the most part, uneconomic. Most smallholders process their rubber into ribbed smoke sheets in their houses without proper facilities. Such crude methods result in a product of poor quality which fetches low prices. More than 20% of smallholder's rubber is sold to re-millers as scrap grades at even lower prices. Since 1960, the Rubber Board has been organizing Cooperative Rubber Marketing Societies (CRMS) to assist the smallholders in marketing rubber. At present, there are 36 CRMS of which 27 are affiliated to the Kerala Rubber Marketing Federation (KRMF). Less than 10% of the smallholders' rubber is traded through CRMS. GOK and the Rubber Board plan to expand their role by integrating processing and marketing of rubber through these cooperatives and their apex KRMF. 29. Other crops include cocoa which is a relatively new crop in India but appears to be very well suited to Kerala conditions, particularly to intercropping with coconut. Tapioca, second in importance to rice as the staple food of Kerala's poor is grown on about 318,000 ha. Ginger is a - 9 - valuable crop grown extensively, producing annually over 26,000 tons on about 120,000 ha. Kerala has the largest horticultural area found in any State of India. Fruits, mainly mango, jackfruit, banana and pineapple, occupy some 180,000 ha. Vegetables are grown in abundance in almost all parts of the State, while pulses and groundnuts are found in drier areas. Institutional Framework 30. Agriculture in India is a State responsibility, GOI providing guid- ance through the Five Year and Annual Plans, and financial support through budget allocations. GOI follows two approaches to assist States in planning and development of major perennial crops. For cardamom, coffee, rubber and tea, there are all India Commodity Boards which are quasi-Government organiza- tions with limited autonomy under the GOI Ministry of Commerce. For other crops, including coconut, cocoa, cashew, spices and arecanut, there are Directorates which function under GOI's Ministry of Agriculture. The respon- sibilities of Commodity Boards are wide and include planning, research, ex- tension, marketing, and labor conditions. The main function of the Directorates is to examine policy and prepare, in consultation with State Governments, proposals for the Five Year Plans. The State Departments of Animal Husbandry and of Agriculture are responsible for extension services relating to livestock and to all crops except those which are under Commodity Boards. The extension activities of the State Agriculture Department concentrate on specific areas and on major crops, through modern techniques of farming, use of better seed, systematic fertilizer application, plant protection, stimulating the flow of credit and general technical assistance. This approach is popularly known as Intensive Package Program. There is an adequate pool of qualified staff in Kerala with agricultural training and background. 31. Responsibility for agricultural research was transferred in 1972, from the Kerala Department of Agriculture to Kerala Agricultural University. All state Research Stations including those for coconut, pepper, cashew and horticulture, are now responsible to the University. The University carries out applied research, and research findings are disseminated mainly through training given to the extension staff of the Kerala Department of Agriculture. Basic research related to plantation crops, especially coconut, is conducted by the Central Plantation Crops Research Institute (CPCRI). The latter works on associations of crops with coconuts, particularly the intercropping with cocoa. CPCRI also organizes training for state extension staff. Kerala Department of Agriculture is represented on the Boards of CPCRI and the University. Research on livestock development is being carried out at an Indo-Swiss Project being implemented in the State. 32. Institutional credit for agriculture in Kerala is provided by 11 District Cooperative Banks and 1731 Primary Credit Societies for short-term and medium-term lending, and by 30 Land Mortgage Banks for long-term lend- ing. Commercial Banks, relatively new in agricultural credit, also extend short- and medium-term financing. The Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC), which has satisfactorily participated in several Bank Group financed projects in India, is involved in refinancing agricultural loans in Kerala. - 10 - PART IV - THE PROJECT 33. The project was prepared by the Government of Kerala (GOK) with assistance from an FAO/IBRD Cooperative Program mission that visited India in the Spring of 1975. A project preparation report was completed by GOK in early 1976 and the project was appraised by IDA in May/June 1976. A report entitled "Appraisal of Kerala Agricultural Development Project", dated January 25, 1977, is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. The negotiations were held in Washington from December 20 to 29, 1976. The Indian delegation included Mr. Chatterjee, Director, Department of Economic Affairs, GOI; Dr. Kalkat, Agricultural Commissioner, GOI; and Mr. Muralidharan, Agricultural Production Commissioner, Kerala. A credit and project summary is attached as Annex III and a supplementary project data sheet is attached as Annex IV. Project Description 34. The main purpose of the project is the improvement of tree crops production in Kerala State, with particular emphasis on increasing benefits to small farmers. The project covers most of Kerala's important smallholder tree crops and has been designed with an eye to its replicability. The size of individual project components represents a compromise between the desire to benefit through this first phase operation as many smallholders as possible and the need to tailor the project to the financial and managerial resources of the State. The project would consist of the following: (i) Strengthening of extension services, to be established under a Special Agricultural Development Unit (SADU) (para 42), and provision of long term credits, to be refinanced by ARDC (para 43), for agricultural develop- ment in coconut and pepper growing areas involving smallholders. The activities would include: - new planting of high yielding coconuts on 5,000 ha of Cannanore, Kozhikode and Malappuram Districts; - rehabilitation of coconuts, including replanting (or replacement of senile and unproductive trees) on 30,000 ha in areas free from root-wilt disease in Cannanore, Kozhikode, Malappuram and Trivandrum; - provision of minor irrigation facilities for about 20-25% of these 35,000 ha of coconuts; - intercropping in these coconut areas, to include about 3,000 ha in cocoa, 3,000 ha in fodder for dairy cattle and 2,500 ha in other crops with irrigation; and - 11 - - rehabilitation, including replanting, of 10,000 ha of pepper in Cannanore, Idukki and Kottayam. (ii) Rehabilitation of State-owned cashew plantation of 2,280 ha, new planting of 1,470 ha, and establishment of a pilot plant for cashew apple processing in Cannanore, to be implemented by the Plantation Corporation of Kerala. (iii) Establishment of ten crumb rubber factories, each of 10 ton/day capacity, to be owned and operated by Cooperative Rubber Marketing Societies or Kerala Rubber Marketing Federation. (iv) Provision of agricultural support services, which would include: - establishment of a 435 ha seed garden under SADU for coconut, cashew, cocoa and spices; and - strengthened research by the Central Plantation Crop Research Institute and Agricultural University of Kerala and train- ing and technical assistance for agricultural research and rubber-processing activities. 35. Coconut development would be undertaken in about 85 'package' units of 500 ha each -- new plantings on 10 units and rehabilitation of 75 units. Based on surveys carried out by GOK, about 80% of the farmers in project areas are expected to participate in the coconut rehabilitation program. Thus 30,000 ha (out of 37,500 ha) would be effectively rehabilitated - 400 ha in each of the 75 units. About 25% of the farmers in a package unit are expected to start developing their holdings in the first year, 50% in the second year and the remaining 25% in the third year. At least 20% of the project areas identified for coconut new plantings and 25% of the areas planned for coconut rehabilitation are expected to be developed more intensively under irrigation. Planting materials used would be largely from selected West Coast Tall, Laccadive ordinary and hybrid seedlings raised in the Kerala Department of Agriculture (KDOA) nurseries. Cultivation practices, including fertilizer application and plant protection measures, would generally be in accordance with the package recommended by KDOA which, in turn, follows practices recom- mended by the Central Plantation Crops Institute. Systematic intercropping would be encouraged to maximize farmers' income from investment. This would supplement farmers' income, particularly in the early years when return from investments on coconut will be low. Tapioca, pulses, and vegetables would be intercropped in unirrigated areas, while cocoa and fodder grass would be intercropped in irrigated areas. Cocoa would be planted in 50% of irrigated areas in accordance with cultural practices recommended by KDOA, including fertilizer application and plant protection. Fodder would be intercropped in the other 50% of the irrigated areas and dairy would become an integral part of coconut farm rehabilitation in such areas. It is estimated that about 10,000 cows, mainly Brown-Swiss Cross, a new breed created by the Indo-Swiss Project, would be maintained on about 3,000 ha of coconut farms intercropped with fodder. - 12 - 36. Pepper rehabilitation would be undertaken in about 20 package units of 500 ha each. It would involve replacement of about 50% of the existing vines in the project areas, which are senile and uneconomic, with high yielding and disease resistant varieties. Rehabilitation activities would include improved cultural practices as recommended by the Kerala Depart- ment of Agriculture. 37. Cashew development would be undertaken by the Plantation Corporation of Kerala on a commercial basis. The rehabilitation and new plantations would also demonstrate to cashew smallholders in Kerala the potential benefits from improved practices. The project would consist of three components: rehabili- tation of the 2,280 ha cashew plantation in Cannanore District which will be transferred from the Kerala Department of Agriculture (KDOA) to the Corpora- tion; new plantings on 1,470 ha of new land, also in Cannanore; and setting up of a pilot plant for processing cashew apple into wine, beverages and preserves. Transfer of KDOA's cashew farm in Cannanore and other land suitable for new cashew plantation to the Corporation would be a condition of disbursement for the cashew component of the project (paragraph 4(c) of Schedule 1 to the Development Credit Agreement). 38. Ten crumb rubber factories would be set up under this project. Nine of these would be new and located in areas to be determined upon the recommendation of the consultants provided under the project (para 41). The tenth one would be the expansion of an existing plant operated by the Palai Cooperative Rubber Marketing Society. All factories are designed to produce 'B' grade crumb rubber using 70% to 80% scrap grades blended with ribbed smoked sheet and/or field latex. Each factory would be equipped with a test- ing laboratory to control product quality. Factory construction would start in phases, beginning in the second year of the project, and all would be commissioned by 1982. The factories would be owned and operated by Coop- erative Rubber Marketing Societies. In cases where Societies are not forthcoming, the factories would be run by their apex -- Kerala Rubber Marketing Federation (see para. 28). 39. Seed gardens to produce nursery seeds would be established on 435 ha - 300 ha for coconut, 50 ha for cashew, 35 ha for pepper, and 50 ha for cocoa and spices. Large quantities of improved seeds are required for the tree crop development programs planned by the State. Although Kerala Department of Agriculture has established several coconut, cashew and pepper nurseries to make seedlings available to the farmers, it does not have gar- dens to produce seeds. The project would help remedy this situation by es- tablishing seed gardens to produce high-yielding and disease-resistant seeds. GOK would make suitable land available for this purpose, and this will be a condition of disbursement for the seed garden component of the project (paragraph 4(d) of Schedule 1 to the Development Credit Agreement). 40. Extension services included in the project would provide intensive technical support that is crucial for successful development of small holdings. The proposed arrangements would be similar to those followed in Kerala under Intensive Package Programs, but the staffing intensity at field level would be doubled in the project areas. Two Agricultural Demonstrators and one - 13 - Junior Agricultural Officer would form a team and cover a package unit of 500 ha or about 1,200 farming families. Veterinary Surgeons and Livestock Assist- ants would also be added to help farmers engaged in dairy. The Project would also provide training, vehicles, low cost office buildings, and spraying equip- ment for plant protection. 41. Research, training and technical assistance would form integral parts of the project. Basic research on tree crops is undertaken by the Central Plantation Crops Research Institute (except for rubber, which is carried out by the Indian Rubber Board) and adaptive research by the Agricul- tural University of Kerala But the existing work is inadequate, particularly for important crops like coconut, cashew and pepper. The project would supplement the activities already planned, by providing laboratory buildings, equipment and supplies, research personnel and training. Qualified consult- ants, for short periods (totalling 18 man-months) would be recruited to assist the Central Plantation Crops Research Institute (Section 3.02(a) of the Devel- opment Credit Agreement). For the rubber processing component, services of experienced engineering consultants (for 27 man-months) would be obtained to assume responsibility for planning, designing, construction supervisions and commissioning of the new crumb rubber factories (Section 3.02(b) of the Development Credit Agreement). In addition, the services of a crumb rubber processing specialist (for a total of 12 man-months) would be engaged to visit Kerala periodically and advise the Rubber Board in the operation of crumb rubber factories (Section 3.02(c) of the Development Credit Agreement). Overseas training would be provided for at least five managers appointed to run the factories, and about three senior executives of the Rubber Board who will be associated with the implementation of the rubber component. Employ- ment of the engineering consultants would be a condition of disbursement for the rubber component (paragraph 4(b) of Schedule 1 to the Development Credit Agreement). Project Implementation 42. Coconut and pepper development, including intercropping, dairy devel- opment, related extension support and seed gardens, would be the Government of Kerala's responsibility. These activities would be implemented through a Spe- cial Agricultural Development Unit (SADU) which has been established under the Kerala Agricultural Production Commissioner. A senior officer has been ap- pointed to work as the chief executive of SADU. The chief executive would be assisted by four deputies with specialized responsibilities including exten- sion services. Cashew development would be the Plantation Corporation of Kerala's responsibility. The Corporation has established a cashew Project Department, and a.full-time Director has been appointed. The Director would be responsible to the Managing Director of the Corporation and would have adequate staff to implement the program. Crumb rubber factories would be established with the assistance of the engineering consultants (para 41). A Rubber Processing Department would be set up within the Indian Rubber Board to assist the cooperative institutions in their investment planning and in the operation of the factories after they are established. - 14 - 43. The proposed project would provide about US$20.7 million to ARDC to refinance long-term loans to be extended to participating smallholders and agencies. Kerala Land Mortgage Banks and Commercial Banks would advance loans to smallholders for on-farm development. These banks would also advance loans out of the credit proceeds to the Kerala State Electricity Board to energize smallholders irrigation pumps. Long-term needs of the Plantation Corporation for cashew development would be provided by a commercial bank of its choice. Finance to Crumb Rubber Marketing Societies or the Kerala Rubber Marketing Federation for construction of the crumb rubber factories would be disbursed by the State Cooperative Bank. The project does not provide funds for seasonal loans as the existing arrangements are satisfactory and would be continued. ARDC would prepare a project banking plan which would lay down a program for strengthening the rural banking system. Preparation of a banking plan accept- able to IDA, would be a condition of credit effectiveness (Section 5.01(d) of the Development Credit Agreement). 44. A Project Coordination Committee (PCC) has been constituted for the overall coordination of the activities of all the project entities. The Kerala State Agricultural Production Commissioner is its chairman and its members include representatives of GOI and all the agencies involved in the implemen- tation of the project. The chief executive of the Special Agricultural Development Unit will act as member-secretary. The functions of PCC include: coordination of procurements under the project; liaison with agencies partici- pating in project implementation; liaison with GOI, GOK and IDA; project mon- itoring; and preparing claims for IDA disbursements. GOK has agreed to estab- lish a satisfactory evaluation arrangement to identify problems and evaluate benefits realized by participating farmers and agencies. This arrangement will be maintained for a minimum of ten years (Section 2.02 of the Kerala Project Agreement). Project Cost and Financing 45. The total project cost is about US$69 million equivalent over 7 years (including some $7 million in taxes and duties) of which about US$10 million is the estimated foreign exchange content. The proposed credit of US$30 million would finance about 48% of the total cost, net of taxes and duties, and would cover the whole of foreign exchange costs and about US$20 million of the local costs. The remaining local costs would be met by GOI and GOK (US$7.0 million), ARDC and the participating banks (US$25.5 million), other participating agencies (US$1.8 million), and smallholders (US$4.7 million). Details of cost estimates and financing are given in Annex III. 46. The bulk of IDA funds, US$20.7 million, would be channeled from GOI to ARDC to refinance loans to be extended by banks to farmers and the Kerala State Electricity Board for smallholder development, to the Plantation Corporation of Kerala for cashew development and to Crumb Rubber Marketing Societies for rubber processing. US$2.0 million representing all other project components would be passed on by GOI to the Indian Rubber Board and Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, and to GOK for allocation to the - 15 - other agencies (University, SADU) implementing project activities. The remaining US$7.3 million would be left unallocated to meet physical and price contingencies. ARDC would refinance 75% to 90% of loans made by the banks to the final borrowers. The banks themselves would finance 85% to 95% of the investment costs of the final borrowers and require the final borrowers to find 5% to 15% of their investment costs in accordance with the established ARDC procedure for different types of borrowers. Details of the on-lending arrangements are specified in Annex III. Procurement and Disbursement 47. Equipment for new crumb rubber factories (US$2.2 million) would be procured by international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA Guide- lines. Contracts valued at US$100,000 or more for equipment for the expan- sion of the Palai crumb rubber factory, farm equipment, vehicles, laboratory and office supplies and equipment (US$3.1 million) would also be awarded under international competitive bidding. In most cases, however, contracts would not be suitable for bulking into groups of US$100,000 or more because individual items are small and scattered geographically and over time. These would be awarded in accordance with local procurement procedures in which competition is assured by adequate representation of local suppliers and local agents of foreign suppliers. Civil works contracts (US$4.8 million) would be let under local competitive bidding procedures, which are satis- factory. International competitive bidding would not be practical for civil works because of their small size, scattered locations and a long implementa- tion period. Domestic manufacturers would receive a 15% margin of preference or the prevailing customs duty (if lower) on items procured under international competitive bidding. 48. As is usual in the case of agricultural credit operations, inter- national competitive bidding procedures would not be suitable for procure- ment financed by loans to smallholders (US$34.9 million) to purchase farm development inputs. These loans would be advanced to about 75,000 farmers in small amounts and the operation would be spread over seven years. On- farm development for cashew and seed gardens (US$1.1 million) would be carried out over a seven-year period by State agencies on force account. Consultants' services (US$0.5 million) would be engaged in accordance with IDA Guidelines. The balance of the project cost (US$5.0 million, excluding contingencies) would consist of -land, staff and related expenditures not involving procurement. 49. Disbursements of IDA funds would be as follows: (i) 100% of foreign exchange cost, 100% of ex-factory cost or 50% of the total costs of equipment and material; (ii) 100% of the cost of consultants and overseas training; (iii) 50% of loans disbursed to farmers and the State Electricity Board and refinanced by ARDC; (iv) 50% of all civil works and development costs relating to cashew farms and seed gardens. Disbursements under (i) and (ii) would be made against the usual documentation for expenditure. For items under (iii) and (iv) disbursements would be made against appropriate certi- ficates of expenditure, based on documents which would be available for inspection by IDA during the course of Project supervision. - 16 - Project Benefits and Risks 50. The project would permanently improve the income of some 75,000 rural households, the majority of whom belong to the poorest segment of the population. Major benefits would accrue from increased output resulting from intensified and improved agricultural practices on 30,000 ha of coconut re- habilitation and 10,000 ha of pepper rehabilitation, and on 5,000 ha of new coconut planting. At full production, incremental output would be about 200 million coconuts (18,000 ton coconut oil equivalent), 6,000 tons of pepper, 15,000 tons milk, 2,000 tons cocoa, 6,000 tons cashew and 40,000 tons of other food crops. Rubber processing facilities would yield higher income to 50,000 smallholders by upgrading the quality of 25,000 tons of low grade rubber. Increased milk production would be adequate to provide 75,000 people with the minimum recommended 210 gram per day. In addition, the project would generate 50,000 man-years of additional employment during development and 13,000 man- years annually thereafter. Increased production of pepper and cashew would add US$12.0 million to annual foreign exchange earnings at full development by 1990. The establishment of seed gardens and the provision of research and extension activities would yield far-reaching benefits in the development of crops involved. 51. Coconut rehabilitation without irrigation would increase income, from 0.5 ha holdings, from US$160 to US$300. Coconut rehabilitation with irrigation and cocoa or fodders as major intercrop would increase income, from a 1.0 ha holding, from about US$320 to about $1,100 annually. New planting of coconuts would increase income, from unirrigated plots of 0.5 ha, to US$420 and from irrigated plots of 1.0 ha to US$1,150. Farmers'income from pepper rehabilitation would increase threefold to US$650 from a 1 ha plot. 52. The economic rates of return are: 33% from coconut rehabilitation without irrigation investments (US$7.9 million of project cost) and 15% with irrigation investments (US$13.4 million); 46% from new coconut planting with- out irrigation investments (US$2.7 million) and 25% with irrigation invest- ments (US$1.4 million); 27% from pepper rehabilitation investments (US$9.5 million); 39% from cashew development investments (US$1.8 million); and 68% from rubber processing investments (US$4.5 million). The weighted average rate of return for the whole project is 30%. 53. The large difference in the economic rate of return between that portion of the coconut development program, which includes the provision of irrigation and that which does not, raises the obvious question whether the funds now proposed for irrigation would not be spent more effectively when used to improve coconut production without irrigation, in an area larger than presently proposed. The answer is, in part, that this is not a practicable alternative: the program as proposed essentially consists of a highly elab- orate extension effort which involves a large number of staff and is greatly dependent on effective management. The staff and administrative resources required by a larger program would not have been available during the project period. The substantive part of the answer is as follows: the returns from a program that essentially consists of the introduction of improved cultiva- tion practices without providing irrigation, while large in relation to the - 17 - amount of expenditures, is small in absolute terms for the average holding. At the same time, land in Kerala is scarcer than the national average, as reflected in the relatively small size of average holding. In the foreseeable future, it is difficult to see the pressure of population on the land being reduced, either through the growth of non-agricultural activities in Kerala or through migration to other regions in India. Thus, in order to provide Kerala's population dependent on agriculture with a reasonable level of income, the productivity of land will have to be raised. Among the most promising approaches to achieving this objective is the provision of irriga- tion for coconut which, according to present estimates will increase the income derived from a plot of one ha. from US$320 to as high as US$1,150. The irrigation component of the project as proposed represents an initial attempt to move in that direction. Finally it should be noted that the economic rate of return on investment in irrigation, as calculated above, does not include certain benefits which it was not possible to quantify: in Kerala water is in short supply and wells will improve the availability of water for domestic purposes. Moreover, water available from wells may well be spread over an area larger than has been assumed in the estimates underlying the calculation of the economic rate of return as presented in the preceding paragraph. 54. The most significant risk inherent in the project lies in the com- plexity of the project itself, which would involve a number of different crops, thousands of smallholder farmers, several government departments, cooperative societies and national and state institutions. The involvement of a large number of institutions is due to the fact that the Project con- sists of a number of components that are quite distinct. Measures to coordinate, monitor and expedite all phases of implementation have been discussed with GOI, GOK and other agencies, and necessary arrangements made. Development programs with relatively long gestation periods and involving smallholder farmers, as in the case of the proposed project, also entail risks that they will meet with inadequate response from farmers. These risks were considered and conservative assumptions made in regard to project phasing, costs, yields and commodity prices. Risks other than these are no greater than can normally be expected with operations of this type, and are acceptable in view of the benefits which would accrue to a large number of small farmers and to the economy as a whole. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 55. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Association, the draft Kerala Project Agreement between the Association and the State of Kerala, the draft ARDC Agreement between the Association and the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation, the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agree- ment and the text of a draft Resolution approving the proposed development credit are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 56. The features of the draft agreements of special interest are listed in Section III of Annex IV. - 18 - 57. The additional conditions of effectiveness, specified in Section 5.01 of the Development Credit Agreement, would be: (a) the execution of the Kerala Project Agreement; (b) the execution of the ARDC Agreement;. (c) the execution of the Subsidiary Loan Agreement between the Borrower and ARDC; and (d) the preparation by ARDC of a banking plan acceptable to IDA. 58. The conditions of disbursement, specified in Schedule 1 to the Development Credit Agreement, would be: (a) transfer of Kerala Department of Agriculture's cashew plantation in Cannanore district and about 1500 ha of suitable land for cashew plantation to Plantation Corporation of Kerala would be the condition of dis- bursement from the cashew development component of the project (see para 37); (b) allocation of sufficient land suitable for seed gardens would be the condition of disbursement from the seed gar- dens component of the project (see para 39); and (c) employment of engineering consultants would be the condition of disbursement from the rubber component of the project (see para 41). 59. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 60. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President February 3, 1977 ANNEX I PageL LANC AREA (THOU KM2) -- ---- - - INDIA REFERENCE COUNTRIES (1970). TUTAL 3280.5 MOST RECENT AGRIC. 178191 1960 1970 ESTIMATE INDONESIA PHILIPPINES BRAZIL* ------------------ ---------------------- ------------ ------------ --- -------- GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 70.0 110.0 150.O 110.0 230.0 540.0 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION (MID-YR, MILLION) 429.0 542.7 609.6 116. 3 36.9 92.8 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQUARE KM. 131.0 165.0 186.0 61.0 123.0 11.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 25.0 290.0 319.0 LIL ho5.o 279.0 66.0 VITAL STATISTICS CRUDE BIRTH RATE PER THOUSAND 43.2 42.7 39.9 45.9 44.2 36.4 CRUCE DEATH RATE PER THOUSAND 23.9 18.8 15.7 20.6 13.2 9.9 INFANT MORTALITY RATE I/THOUI 139.0 * .. 120-140.0 ** 80.0 110.0 LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YRS) 41.7 47.2 49.5 45.0 55.6 59.7 GRCSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.3 2.6 POPULATIO GROWTH RATE (Z) TOTAL L.8 2.41 2.11 2.0 3.0 2.9 URBAN 2.5 / 3.2 3.1 3.7 /a 4.0 5.0 URBAN POPLLATION (2 OF TOTAL) 17.9 19.8 20,6 17.0 l 27.6 56.0 AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0 To 14 YEARS 41.0 1.6 10.1 44.0 45.6 42.0 15 TO 64 YEARS 55.9 55.3 56.7 53.5 51.6 55.0 65 YEARS ANC OVER 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 ECONOPIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.3 / .. . ** 1.5 1.5 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS (CUMULATIVE, THOU) 1000.0, 11308.0 26566.0 259.3 354.0 250.0 USERS (2 OF MARRIED WOMEN) ** ** 15.8 & .. 2.0 1.6 EPPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSAND) 189000.0 .. 221000.0 * .. 12300.0 29600.0 LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE (2) 73.0 .. 72.0* 55.0 L 4+.o UNEMPLOYED (2 OF LABOR FORCE) 1.0 .. 2.0 f .. 7.0 .. INCCME DISTRIBUTION I OF PRIVATE INCOME REC-O BY- HIGHEST 5X OF HOUSEHOLDS 26.7 25.0 .. ** ** 35*0 HIGHEST 202 OF HOUSEHOLDS 51.7 53.1 .. ** ** 2.0 LOWEST 20% OF HOUSEHDLDS 4.1 .7 ** ** .. 3.0 LOWEST 40% OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 13.1 .. ** ** 10.01. DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP 9 OWNED BY TOP 10% OF OWNERS .. ** ** ** ** 45.0 X OWNED BY SMALLEST 10Z OWNERS .. * .. *. 1.5 HEALTH AND NUTRITION POPULATION PEP PHYSICIAN 5800.0 Lf 4800.0 h620.0Oa 27650.0 .. 1950.0 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON -,240.0 lf & 5110.u 426C.0 a 8010.0 .. 3300.0 PCPULATICN PER HOSPITAL BED 2600.0 7W 1620.0 . 1720.0 850.0 260.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF - CALORIES (I OF REQUIREMENTS) 95.0 93.0 91.0 /h 89.0 100.0 109.0 PROTEIN IGRAMS PER DAY) 55.0 53.0 52.0 7_ 43.0 45.0 64.0 -OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 19.0/ 16.0 .. 14.0 22.0 39.0 DEATH RATE (I/THOU) AGES 1-4 44.0 .. .. .. 9.0 EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIO PRIMARY SCHOOL 38.0 68.0& 79.0 69.0 108.o 87.0 SECONDARY SCHOOL 9.o .. 28.0 12.0 48.0 28.0L YEARS OF SCHCOLING PROVIDED (FIRST AND SECOND LEVEL) 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 13.0 VOCATIONAL ENROLLMENT (I OF SECCNDARY) 8.0 6.0.g .. 29.0 6.0 17.0 ADULT LITERACY RATE (2) 24.0 33.0 36.uI .. .. 68.0 HOUSING PERSONS PER ROOM (AVERAGE) 2.6& .. . .. .. 1.0 OCCUPIED DWELLINGS WITHOUT PIPED WATER (2) .. .. .. .. 66.0 /de 73.0Ld ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (2 OF ALL DWELLINGS) .. .. .. .. 23.0 Ld 48.0 -"RAL DWELLINGS CONNECTED TO ELECTRICITY (2) .. .. .. .. 6.0 8.0 CONSUMPTION RADIO RECEIVERS IPER THOU POP) 5.0 21.0 23.0 114.0 45.0 60.0 PASSENGER CARS (PER THOU POP) 0.7 1.0 1.0 2.0 8.0 25.0 ELECTRICITY (KWH/YR PER CAP) 46.0 114.0 129.0 20.0 235.0 191.0 NEWSPRINT (KG/YR PER CAP) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.2 /f 2.7 SEE NOTES AND DEFINITIONS ON REVERSE ANNEX i Page 2 NOT'ES ulssa otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to eny year between 1959 and 1961, for 1970 betwen 1968 and 1970, and for Most Recent Estimate between 1973 and 1975. * Brazil has been selected because of it. siae and cauparable problems sf regional inequUalty. INDIA 1960 /a 1951-61 average; /b 1951-60; n Rati of population under 15 and 60 and over to labor force agnd 15-59, /d 1964; e Regiotered applicanto for work, 7ff 1962, j Including midives, both nures and midwives registered, not all practicing in the country, Lh 1957, /t 1960-62, L 6-13 and 14-19 years of age respectively, i Householde. 1970 /a 1967-68; L 5-10 yeare of age, /. 1967. MOST RECOT ESTDKATE- /I 1972; /b 1971, In Ratts of population under 15 ond 60 and over to lakor foce agad 15-59; SNatimonal progra only, /e AID e.tim te of labor forne in age group 15-59. IBRD report gives a figure of 180.4 illiton based on the 1971 populatio census. The difference is due to changes in the definition of * eOrker. in the 1971 census, persons were clasefind only on the basis of their main activities. This led to the exclusion of saneral categories, such as housewins. L Registered applicanta for work; j Including midwinos, /h 1969-71 average, fl Population 10 years and over; h Households. INDONESIA 1970 L 1961-71, /b 1971. PHILIPPINES 1970 Ia As percentage of employment, /h 7-12 and 13-16 years of age respectively; Ic Not including private veoational school. or vocational short term coursen /d 1967, household, le Inside only BRAZIL 1970 La Eceonmically active population. /h Hospital personnel; L 12-18 years of age, Id Inside only. R9, July 21, 1976 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Land Arna (thou km2 Population per nursing person - Population divdod by noumber of practicing Total - Total urface araacompriaing land area and Inland watera. aae and female graduate nurses, "trained or "cetlfied ss, and ARri. - Most retent astimate of agricultural ams used temporarily ur auxilisry personnel with training or experience. permanently for cropa, panture, market & kitchen garden. or to lie P.opultion p er hospital bed - Population divided by number of hoepital leda fulloo. availabin in public and privata general and specialized hospital and rehbilltation centers, ecludes nuring bomes nd establihments for 7 j5P our cacita (US$7 - CP cor caprla ~etimates st curent market prices, custodial and preventive c,ae. colculated by sa conversion method a World Bank Atlas (1973-75 basis); Per capita eupply of clorie (% of requiroments) - Computed from energy 1960, 1970 and 1975 dota. equivalent of oet food eupplies avallable in country per capita per day; avallable supplies comprise domestic production, imports less export., Popution and vital statiatic. and changes in atock; et jupplies exclude animal feed, sede, quanti- population (mid-or. million) - As of July firt. if not available, ties used in fond prouss ing and lusten lo distribution; requirements average of too end-yearetimate ; 1960, 1970 and 1975 data. ser etimated by FAO based on phy.iological needn for uosn1 .ctvity and ealth coneidering nvironmental temperaturn, body weights, age and Population density-par aa k - Mid-year population per square kilo- ten dintributione uf population, and alloing 10. for waste st huse- metr (100 hectoren lof total area. hold leosl. Populat-o density - per aquare ko of agric. land - Comoputed as abov for Per capita sply of protein (gram- per day) - Protein content of per agrioultural land unly. capita set supPly of foud per day; rot supply of food is defined s short; rsquiroeetfo all countrles establlend by USDA Economic Vital etti i teearch 5 arvicen provide for a minmu alluonre of 60 gram ut total Crude birth rate per thousand, average - Annual live births per thousand protein per day, and 20 graws of animal and polse protein, of whieh of mid-year population; ten-year erithmetic averages ending in 1960 and 10 gram ehould be animal protein; thes standardn ars loeer than those 1975, svd five-year average ending in 1975 or most recent estiote. of 75 gram of total protein and 23 grant sf at.nm protein s an Crude death race per thousand. average - A.noul death per thouand of nid- average fot the world, propoed by PAO in the Third Wurld Pood Survey. year populaciun, te-year arithmetic averages ending is 1960 and 1970 and Par capita protein supply frun snimol and pute - Protein topply to oud fire-year avre ending in 1975 for most recntanesate. derirad Oron animaln ond pulseo to gtan per day. Infant mortality rate (/thou) - Annual deaths of infante under sne year of Death rate (/thou) agen 1-4 - Annual deaths per thousand in age group age per thousnd live birthe 1-4 years, to children in this age group; suggested as as indicat of Life epec toncy si birth (yra) - Average nber of years of life remaining malnutrition. st birth; ueually fire-year ~nerages eding ln 1960, 1970 and 1975 for developing rountries. Education crone reproduction rate - A rage number of live daughters woan sill Adjusted enrollment ratIs - primary school - Enrollment of all eget as beer in her narmal reproductive period tf ehe jeperiences present a- pereentage of prinary school-age population, includes children aged epecific fertility ratet; usually five-year average. ending in 1960, 6-11 years bot adjusted for different lengths of primary education; 1970 and 1975 for developing countries. for countries with universal education, enrollment may exceed 100% Population growth rate (M) - total - Compoond nnua growth rates of mid- sinne some pupile are below or above the official schol age. year population for 1950-60, 1960-70 and 1970-75. Adju!ted enrollent rat o - secondary echool - Computed a abtove Population growth rate .) - urban - Computed like gruth rate of total sondaryeducation requires at least four yeare ut approved primary population; different deftnitions of urban areas may affect comparn- instruction; provide. general, vocational or teacher training bility of dato anong cntrie. inetruction for pupils of 12 to 17 years of age; correspondence Urban opultiron (% of total) - Ratio of urban to total population; couraes ana genera excluded. differeot definition. of urban areas may affect comparability sf data Years of etbooling provided (first and second laee) - Total years of among cuntries. schooling; at secondary level, vocational in.tructios may be par- Agaestruore (percen) - Chltdren (0-14 yeare), worbing-age (15-64 years), tially or complately excluded. and rettred (65 years ond snar) as percntages of mid-ye population. Vocational enrollment (7. of eecondary) - Vocational institution. lnclude Age dependency ratio - RatIn of population under 15 and 65 and uor to technical, induetrial or other progras which operate independently or lhasa of agne 15 through 64. ss departmenta of srcndary inettutions. tconooic dependancy ratio - Ratio of population under 15 and 65 and over Adult litracy tate (.) - Literate adult. (able tu read and srite) as to tio labor force in age group of 15-64 years. percentage of total adult population agad 15 years and over. Fanily mpanning - acceptora (cumulatie., thou) - Cumulative number of acUeptuo of birth-control devices under ouspices of national family Housing plarning program since inception. Persone per rooe (urban) - Aver.ge number of persons per room in Family planning - ostre (M of sarried Women) - Percentages of married occupied conventionel doelling. in urban areas, dwellingo exclude romen of child-bsaring age (15-44 yearn) who use birth-control device. non-permanont tructures and unsocupled parte. tuoall married sonen in sune age group. Occupied dwellings sithaut piped ester (7) - Occupied conventional dwellinga in urban and rural ares without inside or outside piped Employment water facilities as percentage of all occupied dwellings. Total labor force (thousand) - Economically active persons, including Access to electricity (% of all dwellings) - Cuoventional dwellinga with ,amed forces and uneployed bot escluding houewives, students, etc.; electricity in living qu-rtere as percent of total dwellings in urban definttous in varous countrie are nut omparable. and rural arena. Labor force in atrulture (7.) - Agricultural labor forne (in farming, Rural dwellinge onEnected to electricity (7) - Conputed as abore for foreetry, hunting and fishing) s percentage of total labor force. rural dwellings nly. Unoployed (% of labor force) - Uneployed are uusally defined as person. who are able ond willing to eake a jub, ost of a job an a given day, Consumptio remained out of s job, and eeking work for a specifid mninmum period fadio rereivers (per thou PoP) - All typet of receivers for radio broad- not exceeding one week; may not be comparable between countries das ts casts to general public par thousand of population; excludes unlicen.ed different definitio sf unemployed and seurre sf data, e.g., employ- receiver n ountr nd isYearr when registration of radio sate wa ment office statistice, ~sple survey., compulsory u.nmpyet insurse. in effert; data for recent years may not bs comparable sine est countries abolihed licennIg. Income distribution - Percentage of private income (both In cash and kind) Pas.enger care (per thou pop) - Passeger tare compre motor care eat- received by richest 5%, riche.t 20%, poorest 20%, and porpt 40% of ing lee: than night persont; excludes ambulance., hear.es and milltary houneholds. vehicle. Electricity (kwh/ya par cap) - Annual consunption of industrtal, com- Dietribution of land ovnerehip - Percentages of land owned by wealtbiest mercial, public and prirate electricity in kilowatt hours par tapit; 10% and poorest 107 of land owene generally based ss production data, without allowance for loesse in gride but allowIng for Imports and exports of electricity. Health and Nutrition Newsprint (ko/yr per oap) - Per capita annual consumption in kilograe Population ren physician - Population divided by nber sf practicing estimated from domeetic production plus ner import. of nevprint. phyeiciane qualified from « medical bchool at unlversity level. ANNIK I Page 3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DATA a/ GNP PER CAPITA IN 1974 -s US$140 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1975/76 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices) US$ Bln. 1961/62-1964/65 1965/66-1969/70 1970/71-1973/74 GNP at Market Prices 80.4 100.0 3.4 3.7 1.9 Gross Domestic Investment 15.1 18.8 Gross National Saving 13.9 17.3 Current Account Balance -2.0 -2.3 Resource Gap -1.2 -1.5 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971 Value Added (at factor cost) Labor Force V.A. Per Worker US Binin. of ational Average Agriculture 24.5 46.6 130.0 72.1 188 64 Industry 11.8 22.3 20.2 11.2 582 199 Services 16.3 31.1 30.2 17 542 186 Total/average 52.6 100.0 180.4 100.0 292 100 GOVERNMENT FINANCE General Government d/ Central Governmnt (Ra. B1n) of GDP (Re. Bln) of GDP 1975/76 1975/76 1973/74-1975/76 1975/76 1974/75 1972/73-1974775 Current Receipts 107.63 18.2 17.3 112.17 9.1 9.2 Current Expenditures 98.9 16.9 16.3 112.17 8.2 B.7 Current Surplus/Deficit 8.64 1.3 1.0 - 0.9 0.5 Capital Expenditures e/ 40.40 5.8 5.4 85.23 4.3 4.1 External Assistance CPP (net) 10.17 1.4 1.0 10.17 1.4 1.0 MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES 1965/66 1970/1 1971/7 12/73 1973/74 174/75 March 1975 March 1976 (Billion Re outstanding at end of period) Moray and Quasi Money 61.4 105.7 12 ". 442.2 169.1 187.4 187.2 213.6 5'uik Credit to Public Sector 40.8 56.9 69.0 82.5 )2.9 102.0 i02.b [07.3 S ee to Private Sector 28.1 56.7 64.4 76.0 In.1 100.5 109.5 134.2 (Percentage or Index Numbers) June 1975 June 1976 Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 24.0 24.4 26.3 27.9 27.2 25.5 Wholesale Price Index (1961/62 = 100) 131.6 181.1 138.4 207.1 254.2 313.0 316.0 290.5 Annual percentage changes in: Wholesale Price Index 7.7 5.5 4.0 9.9 22.7 23.1 -8.1 Bank Credit to Public Sector 12.9 8.6 21.3 19.6 12.6 9.8 4.8 Bank Credit to Private Sector 12.8 17.4 13.6 18.0 18.5 11.5 22.9 a/ The per capita GNP estimate is at 1974 market prices, calculated by the conversion technique used in the 1976. World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. h/ Quick Estimates. o/ Computed from trend line of GNP at factor cost series, including one observation before first year and one observation after last year of listed period. dl/ Transfers between Center and States have been netted out. e/ All loans. and advances to third parties have been netted out. Credit to Govornment. Credit to Commercial Sector. ANNEX 1 Page 4~ BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 h MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(AVERAGE 1973/74-1975/76) (US$ Million) US$ M1n. % Exports of Goods 2,558 3,239 4,143 4,555 Jute Manufacturers 299 9 Imports of Goods -2,682 -3,971 -5,739 -6,102 Tea 247 7 Trade Balane - 124 - 732 -1,596 -1,547 Cotton Textiles 391 11 NFS (net) - 146 n.a. n.a. n.a. Engineering Goods 390 11 Others 2 62 Resource Gap - 270 n.a. n.a. n.a. Total 3,461 100 Interest Payments (net) - 237 - 233 - 260 - 261 Other Factor PTyents (net) 1, - 8 n.a. n.a. n.a. Net Transfers - - 50 n.a. n.4. n.a. Balance on Current Account - 565 n.a. n.a. n.a. EXTERNAL DEBT, MARCH 31, 1975 Official Aid US$ Mln. Disbursements 955 1,249 1,766 2,249 Repayable in foreign currency 11,247.7 Amortization -445 -459 -519 -522 Repayable through export of goods 635 Transactions with IMF 75 530 205 Total Outstanding and Disbursed 11,882.7 All Other Items 89 205 41 500 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1975/76 17.2 percent Increase in Reserves (-) - 34 -105 38 -794 Cross Reserves (end year) 1,311 1,416 1,378 2,172 Net Reserves (end year) 1,311 1,341 773 1,474 IBRD/IDA LENDING, June 30, 1976 (US$ MIn.) Fuel and Related Materials IBRD IDA Imports 265 720 1,451 1,417 Outstanding and Disbursed 435 2,948 of which: Petroleum 265 719 1,451 1,417 Undisbursed 266 1,236 Outstanding including 701 4,184 Exports 41 20 26 n.a. Undisbursed of which- Petroleum 37 16 17 n.a. RATE OF EXCHANGE -1/ Prior to mid-December 1971 US$1.00 Rs 7.5 After end June 1972 : Floating Rate Rs 1.00 US$0.133333 Spot Rate December 31, 1976 Mid-December 1971 to : US$1.00 Rs 7.27927 approx. US$1.00 Rs 8.901 end June 1972 Rs 1.00 = US$0.137376 approx. Rs 1.00 = US$ 0.112 h/ Estimated. I/ For 1973/74 to 1975/76, included with 'All other Items'. j/ Aid and trade figures converted to US dollars using exchange rates and IMF trade conversion factors as indicated in inside front cover of this report or notes to individual tables. k/ Amortization and interest payments (excluding IMF transaction) as a percentage of merchandise exports. ANNEX II Page 1 of 12 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA.CREDITS (As of December 31, 1976) Loan or US$ Million 1/ Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose (Net of Cancellation) BANK IDA Undisbursed 38 Loans/ 1,032.5 40 Credits fully disbursed 2,213.9 614-IN 1969 India Tarai Seeds 13.0 - 3.8 203-IN 1970 India Punjab Agricultural Credit - 27.5 10.7 226-IN 1971 India Andhra Pradesh Agricultural Cr. - 24.4 3.3 242-IN 1971 India Power Transmission II - 75.0 19.4 249-IN 1971 India Haryana Agricultural Credit - 25.0 0.1 250-IN 1971 India Tamil Nadu Agricultural Credit - 35.0 5.8 264-IN 1971 India Cochin II Fertilizer - 20.0 1.0 267-IN 1971 India Wheat Storage - 5.0 3.7 789-IN 1971 ICICI Industry DFC IX 59.0 - 2.5 278-IN 1972 India Mysore Agricultural Credit - 40.0 5.6 294-IN 1972 India Bihar Agricultural Markets - 14.0 11.6 312-IN 1972 India Population - 21.2 10.3 342-IN 1972 India Education - 12.0 11.4 356-IN 1972 India IDBI - 25.0 16.4 377-IN 1973 India Power Transmission III - 85.0 49.8 378-IN 1973 India Mysore Agricultural Markets - 8.0 7.6 902-IN 1973 ICICI Industry DFC X 70.0 - 10.2 390-IN 1973 India Bombay Water Supply - 55.0 43.4 391-IN 1973 India Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Cr. - 33.0 2.9 392-IN 1973 India Uttar Pradesh Agricultural Cr. - 38.0 18.0 403-IN 1973 India Telecommunications V - 80.0 25.8 427-IN 1973 India Calcutta Urban Development - 35.0 18.5 440-IN 1973 India Bihar Agricultural Credit - 32.0 20.2 456-IN 1974 India HP Apple Processing & Marketing - 13.0 11.7 481-IN 1974 India Trombay IV - 50.0 28.3 1011-IN 1974 India Chambal (Rajasthan) CAD 52.0 - 42.4 482-IN 1974 India Karnataka Dairy - 30.0 30.0 502-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Canal CAD - 83.0 59.4 520-IN 1974 India Sindri Fertilizer - 91.0 51.2 521-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Dairy - 27.7 27.5 522-IN 1974 India Madhya Pradesh Dairy - 16.4 16.4 526-IN 1975 India Drought Prone Areas - 35.0 32.9 1079-IN 1975 India IFFCO Fertilizer 109.0 - 94.4 1097-IN 1975 India Industry DFC XI 100.0 - 75.4 532-IN 1975 India Godavari Barrage Irrigation - 45.0 38.1 540-IN 1975 India ARC Credit - 75.0 43.8 541-IN 1975 India West Bengal Agrc. Dev. - 34.0 33.5 562-IN 1975 India Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) CAD - 24.0 22.1 572-IN 1975 India Rural Electrification - 57.0 57.0 582-IN 1975 India Railways XIII - 120.0 56.0 585-IN 1975 India Uttar Pradesh Water Supply - 40.0 40.0 598-IN 1975 India Fertilizer Industry - 105.0 103.7 604-IN 1975 India Power Transmission IV - 150.0 150.0 609-IN 1975 India Madhya Pradesh Forestry T.A. - 4.0 4.0 610-IN 1976 India Integrated Cotton Development - 18.0 18.0 616-IN 1976 India Industrial Imports XI - 200.0 31.4 1251-IN(TW) 1976, India Andhra Pradesh Irrigation 145.0 - 145.0 1260-IN 1976 India IDBI II 40.0 - 40.0 1273-IN 1976 India National Seed 25.0 - 25.0 1313-IN 1976 India Telecommunications VI 80.0 - 71.6 1335-IN 1976 India Bombay Urban Transport *25.0 - 25.0 Total 1,750.5 4,112.1 of which has been repaid 762.5 22.2 Total now outstanding 988.0 4,089.9 Amount sold 111.5 of which has been repaid 111.5 Total now held by Bank and IDA 988.0 4,089.9 Total undisbursed (including *) 510.3 1,140.5 1,650.8 * Not yet effective 1/ Prior to exchange adjustments. ANNEX II Page 2 of 12 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (As of December 31, 1976) Fiscal Amount (US$ million) Year Company Loan Equity Total 1959 Republic Forge Company Ltd. 1.5 - 1.5 1959 Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. 0.9 - 0.9 1960 Assam Sillimanite Ltd. 1.4 - 1.4 1961 K.S.B. Pumps Ltd. 0.2 - 0.2 1963-66 Precision Bearings India Ltd. 0.7 0.3 1.0 1964 Fort Gloster Industries Ltd. 0.8 0.4 1.2 1964-75 Mahindra Ugine Steel Co. Ltd. 11.8 1.0 12.8 1964 Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. 1.0 0.3 1.3 1967 Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. 1.0 0.1 1.1 1967 Indian Explosives Ltd. 8.6 2.9 11.5 1969-70 Zuari Agro-Chemicals Ltd. 15.1 3.8 18.9 1976 Escorts Limited 6.6 - 6.6 TOTAL 49.6 8.8 58.4 Less: Sold 6.0 1.6 7.6 Repaid 11.9 - 11.9 Cancelled 6.2 0.7 6.9 Now Held 25.5 6.5 32.0 Undisbursed 10.6 - 10.6 ANNEX II Page 3 of 12 1/ C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION- Generally, the implementation of projects has been proceeding reasonably well. Details on the execution of individual projects are below. The level of disbursements was US$551 million in FY76 or 62% of Bank Group commitments to India in that year. The undisbursed pipeline of US$1,640.8 million as of December 31, 1976, corresponds roughly to commitments over the preceding two-year period and reflects the leadtime which would be expected given the mix of fast and slow-disbursing projects in the India program. Ln. No. 902 Tenth Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$70.0 million loan of June 8, 1973; Effective Date: August 16, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 Ln. No. 1097 Eleventh Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$100 million loan of April 2, 1975; Effective Date: July 1, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 These loans have supported industrialization in India through a well-established development finance company. Loan 902-IN is fully committed and commitments are progressing satisfactorily for Loan 1097-IN. Disburse- ments under Loan 902-IN are ahead of schedule. A proposal for a twelfth loan is under consideration. Ln. No. 614 Tarai Seeds Project; US$13.0 million loan of June 18, 1969; Effective Date: September 12, 1969; Closing Date: Dec- ember 31, 1977 This loan to the Tarai Development Corporation is to assist in the production, processing and marketing of certified seeds of high yielding varieties. The corporation is working effectively and has developed an ex- cellent reputation for quality seed. Expansion of three processing plants is well under way. Delivery of some equipment in damaged condition, and retendering, because of poor response for some others, has delayed delivery schedules necessitating an extension of the Closing Date by one year to December 31, 1977. 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense and with the under- standing that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution. ANNEX II Page 4 of 12 Cr. No. 532 Godavari Barrage Project; US$45 million credit of March 7, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Both the civil works and equipment tenders have been awarded after international competitive bidding. Work is in progress. Cr. No. 203 Punjab Agricultural Credit Project; US$27.5 million credit of June 24, 1970; Effective Date: September 4, 1970; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 226 Andhra Pradesh Agricultural Credit Project; US$24.4 million credit of January 8, 1971; Effective Date: May 10, 1971; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 249 Haryana Agricultural Credit Project; US$25.0 million credit of June 11, 1971; Effective Date: November 2, 1971; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 250 Tamil Nadu Agricultural Credit Project; US$35.0 million credit of June 11, 1971; Effective Date: November 2, 1971; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 278 Mysore Agricultural Credit Project; US$40.0 million credit of January 7, 1972; Effective Date: September 25, 1972; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 391 Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Credit Project; US$33.0 million credit of June 8, 1973; Effective Date: October 10, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1977 Cr. No. 392 Uttar Pradesh Agricultural Credit Project; US$38.0 million credit of June 8, 1973; Effective Date: October 31, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1977 Cr. No. 440 Bihar Agricultural Credit Project; US$32.0 million credit of November 29, 1973; Effective Date: March 29, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 540 Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) Project; US$75.0 million credit of April 28, 1975; Effective Date: August 5, 1975; Closing Date: Dec- ember 31, 1977 Apart from the Punjab project, which consists of mechanization equipment only, all the above agricultural credit projects are similar in ANNEX II Page 5 of 12 structure, being designed to provide long- and medium-term credit to farm- ers through credit institutions for such on-farm investments as tractors, minor irrigation and land-leveling. Disbursement of the minor irrigation components are on schedule. Tractor procurement was delayed following changes in both the supply and demand situations after the projects were originally appraised, which prompted GOI to request that indigenous as well as imported models should be eligible for IDA financing under these credits. The Executive Directors approved this request in December 1973 and those credits which have tractor components have been amended accordingly. Tractor procurement is proceeding satisfactorily. Credit 540 is a continuation nationwide of the previous program of agricultural credit projects, which were confined to individual states. ARDC will continue to act as the financial intermediary for refinancing agricultural credit. Cr. No. 267 Wheat Storage Project; US$5.0 million credit of August 23, 1971; Effective Date: November 14, 1972; Closing Date: September 30, 1978 The Food Corporation of India is making satisfactory progress in the execution of this project. Piling and foundation work is nearly com- pleted. Silo construction has begun and staff training is in progress. Cr. No. 45.6 Himachal Pradesh Apple Processng and Marketing Project; US$13 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: September 26, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 This project was designed to promote the development of apple processing and marketing in Himachal Pradesh, and comprises grading and packing centers, cold storages, a juice processing plant, road improvements and cableways. The project encountered initial delays due to managerial and technical problems. A June 1975 review mission recommended actions to bring the project in line with managerial and technical capabilities and to incorporate consultants' recommendations for modifying the cold storage component. A recent review mission found a satisfactory improvement in the prospects for successful project implementation. Disbursements should be completed by the Closing Date. Cr. No. 403 Telecommunications V Project; US$80.0 million credit of June 25, 1973; Effective Date: July 30, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1977 Material supply problems which delayed the start of this project have been resolved and physical achievements were at record levels during fiscal year 1976. However, to cover the delivery and installation of im- ported transmission and switching equipment, the closing date was extended by one year to December 31, 1977. ANNEX II Page 6 of 12 Cr. No. 242 Power Transmission II Project; US$75.0 million credit of May 3, 1971; Effective Date: July 29, 1971; Closing Date: March 31, 1977 Cr. No. 377 Power Transmission III Project; US$85.0 million credit of May 9,, 1973; Effective Date: October 10, 1973; Closing Date: September 30, 1977 Cr. No. 604 Power Transmission IV Project; US$150.0 million credit of January 22, 1976; Effective Date: October 22, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Power Transmission II suffered initial delays because of problems associated with the preparations for international bidding and the analysis of a very large number of bids involved. All contracts have now been awarded. Due to variations in exchange rates, an undisbursed balance of about US$2 million, by the Closing Date, is likely. For Power Transmission III, vir- tually all equipment has been ordered; there will be a substantial cost overrun due to international price increases, part of which is being met from Power Transmission IV. For power Transmission IV, bids for most of the equipment have been invited. Cr. No. 264 Cochin II Fertilizer Project; US$20 million credit of July 30, 1971; Effective Date: December 2, 1971; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Cr. No. 481 Trombay IV Fertilizer Expansion Project; US$50.0 million credit of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: August 21, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1977 Cr. No. 520 Sindri Fertilizer Project; US$91 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: February 27, 1975; Closing Date: September 30, 1978 Ln. No. 1079 IFFCO Fertilizer Project; US$109 million loan of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: April 28, 1975; Closing Date: March 31, 1979 Cr. No. 598 Fertilizer Industry Project; US$105.0 million credit of December 31, 1975; Effective Date: March 1, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1987 The Cochin Fertilizer Project is being commisssioned, about 31 months behind the appraisal estimate. Progress on the Trombay IV project has been good although project completion may be delayed by about four months because of longer than expected delivery times for critical equipment. Engineering design and procurement for the Sindri project are proceeding on ANNEX II Page 7 of 12 schedule. The IFFCO project was delayed by about a year as a result of a change in feedstock from fuel oil to naphtha and delays in completion of engineering contracts. The project is now progressing satisfactorily based on naphtha as feedstock. Site work has begun, process- and time-critical equip- ment is being ordered, and engineering work is well under way. Credit 598-IN is designed to increase the utilization of existing fertilizer production capacity; implementation is now underway. Cr. No. 294 Bihar Agricultural Markets Project; US$14.0 million credit of March 29, 1972; Effective Date: July 31, 1972; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 Cr. No. 378 Karnataka Wholesale Agricultural Markets Project; US$8.0 mil- lion credit of May 9, 1973; Effective Date: September 7, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1979 These projects were designed to help with establishment of whole- sale markets in a number of towns in Bihar and Karnataka. Progress under the Bihar project has generally been satisfactory. Markets construction in Bihar was delayed due to legal challenges arising out of the state's acqui- sition of land for market sites; however, these difficulties have been satis- factorily resolved. Construction of markets is well advanced and a number have opened for business. Progress under the Karnataka project is much less satisfactory, however, largely due to deficiencies in market planning, design and construction. These problems and remedial actions have been brought to the attention of the Stat*e and Central Government. The project is being mon- itored closely to try and bring about the necessary improvements in implemen- tation. Cr. No. 312 Population Project; US$21.2 million credit of June 14, 1972; Effective Date: May 9, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1978 This credit is designed to finance an experimental and research oriented population project in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. The project's infrastructure, which would provide the optimum facilities (buildings, equip- ment, staff and transport) according to GOI standards in selected districts in each state, is almost complete. The two Population Centers, which will design and monitor research aimed at improving the family planning program, are now functioning. Cr. No. 342 Agricultural Universities Project; US$12.0 million credit of November 10, 1972; Effective Date: June 8, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1979 The project involves the development of the agricultural uni- versities in Assam and Bihar. Initial lag in implementation on account of late appointments of project staff has been overcome. Campus plans ANNEX II Page 8 of 12 have been approved, and construction has started in Assam and is scheduled to start in Bihar by mid 1977. Disbursement which has been slow because of initial delays should accelerate now that construction and equipment procurement are under way. Cr. No. 356 Industrial Development Bank of India Project; US$25.0 million credit of February 9, 1973; Effective Date: June 22, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 Loan No. 1260 Second Industrial Development Bank of India Project; US$40.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: August 10, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 The first IDBI Project (Cr. 356) had a slow start mainly due to institutional problems in the participating State Financial Corporations. However, the credit is now fully committed. In order to continue Bank Group's involvement in assisting small and medium scale industries, the second operation (Ln. 1260) was approved on June 10, 1976. Cr. No. 390 Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$55.0 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: March 13, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 A substantial cost overrun on the project from US$158 million equivalent to about US$375 million equivalent has been caused by inflation and price increases resulting from delays in appointment of engineering con- sultants and redesign of certain project components. The project has been redefined and rephased to fit the financing available from the Credit, local loans and bonds, and internal cash generation of the project entity. The revised cost estimates for the implementation period 1975/76 to 1979/80 amount to US$266 million equivalent excluding interest during construction. All major contracts for civil works, equipment and materials have been awarded. This is expected to considerably speed up disbursements which has been slow. Financial performance of the project entity during 1975/76 was satisfactory, and major rate increases from April 1, 1976 should ensure continuing financial viability of the project entity. Cr. No. 616 Eleventh Industrial Imports Project; US$200.0 million credit of February 24, 1976; Effective Date: April 1, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1976 This credit was signed on February 24, 1976, and became effective on April 1, 1976. ANNEX II Page 9 of 12 Cr. No. 427 Calcutta Urban Development Project; US$35.0 million credit of September 12, 1973; Effective Date: January 10, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 Following considerable increases in project costs, GOI and IDA finalized a project redefinition in April 1976, to accommodate the project to funding available. It is now expected to be substantially completed by March 1979. Agreements have been reached on consultants services and technical assistance, as provided for under the project. Cr. No. 482 Karnataka Dairy Development Project; US$30 million credit of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 23, 1974; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 Cr. No. 521 Rajasthan Dairy Development Project;; US$27.7 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: August 8, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 522 Madhya Pradesh Dairy Development Project; US$16.4 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: July 23, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 These three credits totalling US$74.1 million support dairy devel- opment projects organized along the lines of the successful AMUL dairy coop- erative scheme in Gujarat State. The Karnataka Project which got off to a slow start has begun to show improvement under new management appointed recently. Farmer response has been good and about 250 dairy cooperatives with small farmer participation are functioning effectively. Two Dairy Unions have been established. Close supervision is being maintained. In Madhya Pradesh have been good progress has been made. About 110 new dairy cooperatives societies have been established. Detailed design studies for plant construction are complete. Technical services investments are being made. Contracts have been placed for livestock imports. The Rajasthan project is also doing well. Four milk unions have been formed and excellent progress has been made in organizing the servicing of nearly 350 dairy coop- eratives at the village level. Plant-designs are ready, and procurement is to start soon. KDDC decision to procure plant equipment jointly with RDDC and MPDDC on the same tender would lead to a recovery of considerable time lost earlier. Ln. No. 1011 Chambal (Rajasthan) Command Area Development Project; US$52 million loan of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Cr. No. 502 Rajasthan Canal Command Area Development Project; US$83 mil- lion credit of July 31, 1974; Effective Date: December 30, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 ANNEX II Page 10 of 12 Cr. No. 562 Chambal (Madhya Pradesh) Command Area Development Project; US$24 million credit of June 20, 1975; Effective Date: September 18, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1979 These projects are generally proceeding satisfactorily. In par- ticular, agricultural extension has made remarkable progress. Cr. No. 541 West Bengal Agricultural Development Project; US$34 million credit of April 28, 1975; Effective Date: August 28, 1975; Closing Date: March 31, 1980 The project became effective on July 31, 1975. Successful reor- ganization of agricultural extension services has been a major achievement, but preparations for lending operations have been slow mainly due to poor coordination of project agencies. IDA and the government of West Bengal have agreed on measures to improve coordination and on a timetable covering a range of project activities. Progress with preliminaries for procurement of equipment, markets construction and riverlift completions are satis- factory. Cr. No. 526 Drought Prone Areas Project; US$35.0 million credit of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Progress varies among components but overall is satisfactory. Expenditure to date is less than anticipated but is reasonable because price inflation has been much less than expected. Disbursement perform- ance is poor and the Borrower has been requested to expedite claims. Greater attention is now being paid to data collection to measure project performance. This is essential since several components are innovative. The Systems Research Institute of Poona has been contracted to design an information system to facilitate monitoring and evaluation. Cr. No. 572 Rural Electrification Project; US$57.0 million credit of July 23, 1975; Effective Date: October 23, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1979 Eleven states have now fulfilled the conditions of eligibility for on-lending under this project [compared with six at the time of appraisal]. The project got off to a slow start, due principally to the need to adapt specifications and tender documents to international competitive bidding procedures, but these problems have been overcome. As of September 1976, orders had been placed for 60 approved rural electrification schemes, and tenders had been invited or were in the course of preparation for others. ANNEX II Page 11 of 12 Cr. No. 582 Railways XIII Project; US$110.0 million credit of August 26, 1976; Effective Date: October 10, 1975; Closing Date: September 30, 1977 The project is intended to cover most of the foreign exchange requirements of Indian Railway's (IR) investment program from April 1, 1975, through March 31, 1977. Since the approval of the project, increased pro- duction in steel products in India and further developments in IR's indigen- ization program have resulted in a less than anticipated foreign exchange requirement. It is expected, therefore, that of a total Credit of US$110 million, some US$30-40 million may be undisbursed at the end of the current project period. During the year 1975/76, IR carried 223 million tons of freight traffic, 6% more than forecasted. The project is being implemented satsifactorily. Cr. No. 585 Uttar Pradesh Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$40.0 million credit of September 25, 1975; Effective Date: February 6, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The project had a slow start due to delays in preparation of techni- cal reports for regional and local water authorities. The technical reports for about a third of the project have now been finalized and construction works started in October 1976, about one year behind schedule. All consul- tants for engineering, organization, management and accounting services for the Jal Nigam (Water Supply Development Corporation) and the Jal Sansthans (water authorities) have been engaged. Significant institutional develop- ment can be expected only after the consultants submit their final recommenda- tions. The project is expected to be completed by March 1980, approximately 9 months behind schedule. Cr. No. 609 Madhya Pradesh Forestry Technical Assistance Project; US$4.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: May 26, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 Cr. No. 610 Integrated Cotton Development Project; US$18.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: November 30, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 Ln. No. 1251 Andhra Pradesh Irrigation and Command Area Development .(TW) Composite Project; US$145.0 million loan (Third Window) of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: September 7, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Ln. No. 1313 Sixth Telecommunications Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1976; Effective Date: September 14, 1976; Closing Date: March 31, 1980 ANNEX II Page 12 of 12 Ln. No. 1273 National Seed Project; US$25.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: October 8, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Ln. No. 1335 Bombay Urban Transport Project; US$25.0 million loan of December 20, 1976; Effective Date: March 21, 1977 (expected); Closing Date: June 30, 1980 ANNEX III Page 1 INDIA KERALA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY BORROWER: India, acting by its President. BENEFICIARIES: State of Kerala, Kerala Agricultural University (KAU), Central Plantation Crop Research Institute (CPCRI), Cooperative Rubber Marketing Societies (CRMS), Kerala Rubber Marketing Federation (KRMF), Indian Rubber Board (IRB), Plantation Corporation of Kerala (PCK), Kerala State Electricity Board (SEB), and Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC). AMOUNT: US$30 million equivalent. TERMS: Standard RELENDING TERMS: GOI to IRB and CPCRI, and to the State of Kerala for allocation to other agencies (KAU, SADU). Financing in accordance with the Borrower's standard arrangements for development assistance to the State. GOI to ARDC to refinance loans by lending banks for smallholder development, energization of irrigation pumps, cashew development and rubber processing facilities. (a) For ARDC refinancing for up to nine years: (i) Annual interest rate of 6.75% minimum, less 0.25% for prompt payment; (ii) Repayment at the end of nine years. (b) For ARDC refinancing for more than nine and up to 15 years: (i) Annual interest rate of 7.25% minimum, less 0.25% for prompt payment; (ii) Repayment at the end of 15 years; and, (c) GOI to carry exchange risk. ANNEX III Page 2 ARDC to Participating Banks (i) Annual interest rate of not less than 7.5% to the lending banks; (ii) Installment repayments to coincide with agreed collection dates from ultimate bor- rowers; and (iii) Refinancing by loans not exceeding 90% of individual loans for minor irrigation and not exceeding 80% of loans for other pur- poses. Participating Banks to Farmers, KSEB, PCK, CRMS and KRMF. A loan ceiling of 85 to 95% of investment costs will be financed at an annual interest rate of not less than 10.5%. The repayment period will be based on the earning capacity of the investment but not exceeding 15 years from the date of each withdrawal. Project Description: The project would improve the productivity of tree crops agriculture, and consequently improve the economic situ- ation of smallholder farmers. It would cover new planting and rehabilitation of coconut with systematic intercropping; pepper rehabilitation; cashew development; establishment of seed gardens; and processing of smallholders rubber. Support to smallholders for agricultural development is provided mainly in the form of long-term institutional credit and special extension services. Other support services included are research, technical assistance and training. ANNEX III Page 3 Estimated Cost: (US$ million) Local Foreign Total Smallholder Development On-Farm Costs Coconut New Plantings 2.9 0.4 3.3 Coconut Rehabilitation 14.0 1.5 15.5 Pepper Rehabilitation 8.6 0.9 9.5 Irrigation 5.9 0.7 6.6 Sub-total 31.4 3.5 34.9 Electric Reticulation (for irrigation pumps) 2.9 1.0 3.9 Seeds Garden 1.1 0.1 1.2 Extension Services and Project Coordination 3.7 0.2 3.9 Cashew Development 1.7 0.1 1.8 Agricultural Research 0.7 0.6 1.3 Rubber Processing 2.3 2.3 4.6 TOTAL BASE COSTS 43.8 7.8 51.6 (subject to Contingencies) Contingencies - Physical 1.6 0.3 1.9 - Price (and rounding) 13.1 2.4 15.5 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS (including Contingencies) 58.5 10.5 69.0 Financing Plan: (US$ million) Local Foreign Total IDA 20.0 10.0 30.0 Local Sources GOI & GOK 7.0 - 7.0 ARDC/Participating Banks 25.5 - 25.5 CRMS, KSEB and PCK 1.8 1.8 Smallholders 4.7 4.7 Total: 59.0 10.0 69.0 Estimated Disbursements: (US$ million) FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 Annual 1.2 2.8 5.0 6.2 6.0 4.4 3.0 1.4 Cumulative 1.2 4.0 9.0 15.2 21.2 25.6 28.6 30.0 ANNEX III Page 4 Procurement Arrangements: Equipment for new crumb rubber factories (US$2.2 mil- lion) would be procured by international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA Guidelines. Contracts valued at US$100,000 or more for equipment for the ex- pansion of Palai crumb rubber factory, farm equipment, vehicles, laboratory and office supplies and equipment (US$3.1 million) would also be awarded under international competitive bidding. In most cases, however, contracts would not be amenable to bulking into groups of US$100,000 or more because individual items are small and scattered geographically and over time. These would be awarded in accordance with local procurement procedures in which competition is assured by adequate representation of local suppliers and local agents of foreign suppliers. Civil works contracts (US$4.8 million) would be let under local competitive bidding procedures, which are satisfactory. International competitive bidding would not be practical for civil works because of their small size, scattered locations and a long implementation period. Domestic bid- ders would receive a 15% margin of preference or the pre- vailing customs duty (if lower) on items procured under international competitive bidding. Tender documents and bid evaluations for all contracts in excess of US$200,000 would require prior approval of IDA. As is usual in the case of agricultural credit operations, international competitive bidding procedures would not be suitable for procurement financed by loans to smallholders (US$34.9 million) to purchase farm development inputs. These loans would be advanced to about 75,000 farmers in small amounts and the operation would be spread over seven years. On-farm development for cashew and seed gardens (US$1.1 million) would be carried out over a seven-year period by State agencies on force account. Consultants' services (US$0.5 million) would be engaged in accordance with IDA Guidelines. The balance of the project cost (US$5.0 million, excluding contingencies) would consist of land, staff and related expenditures not involving procurement. Technical Assistance: Consultants for 18 man-months would be provided to assist Central Plantation Crops Research Institute in the fields of Nematology, Pathology and Microbiology research. Consultants for 27 man-months would be provided to assist in the establishment of the crumb rubber factories. In addition, services of a crumb rubber processing specialist would be obtained for a total of 12 man-months to visit Kerala periodically and advise Indian Rubber Board. ANNEX III Page 5 Rates of Return: The weighted average economic rate of return for the whole project is 30%. Appraisal Report: No. 1325a-IN, dated January 25, 1977. 4 ANNEX IV Page 1 INDIA - KERALA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT §UPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I: Timetable of Key Events (a) Time taken by the country to prepare the project About two years. (b) The agency which has prepared the project Goverpment of Kerala (GOK), Kerala Agricultural University, Central Plantation Crops Research Ipstitute and the Indian Rubber Board. (c) Date of first presentation to the Bank, and date of the"first Bank mission to consider the project The project was first discussed between the Govern- ment and the Bank in february/March 1974. The first Bank m ission was FAO/IBRD Cooperative program iden- tification mission in May/June 1974. (d) Date of departure of appraisal mission May 22, 1970. (e) Date of completion of negotiation December 29, 1976. (f) Planned 4ate of effectiveness May 1977, Section II: Special Bank Implementation Actions None. Section III: Special Conditions (a) Central Plantation Crops Research Institute to employ technical consultants to assist it in carrying out agricultural research (para 41). ANNEX IV Page 2 (b) Indian Rubber Board (IRB) to employ consultants to be responsible for planning, designing and supervising the construction and commissioning of the crumb rubber processing factories (Condition of Disbursement, para 41). (c) IRB to employ conqultants to perform advisory services needed for the operation of the crumb rubber processing factories (para 41). (d) Kerala to establish, by September 30, 1977, monitoring and evaluation arrangements satisfactory to the Association to continuously monitor and evaluate the progress of the Project (para 44). (e) Kerala to transfer KDOA's cashew plantation in Cannanore districts and about 1500 ha of suitable land for cashew cultivation to Plantation Corporation of Kerala (Condition of Disbursement, para 37). (f) Kerala to provide adequate land suitable for seed gardens (Condition of Disbursement, para 39). (g) Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation to prepare a project banking plan for strengthening rural banking system (Condition of Effectiveness, para 43). 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Informations clés
Date d'adoption
Pays Inde
Source Banque mondiale