Senegal - Dakar Fishing Port Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No.P-1920a-SE REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR THE DAKAR FISHING PORT PROJECT April 6, 1977 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only In the performance of their officlil duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.00 = CFAF 245 CFAF I million = US$4,080 SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURES: METRIC Metric US Equivalents 1 meter (m) 3= 3.28 feet (ft) I cubic meter (m ) = 35.29 cubic feet (cu ft) 1 kilometer (km) 2= 0.62 mile (mi) I square kilometer (km ) = 0.386 square mile (sq mi) I metric ton (m ton) = 2,204 pounds (lb) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BADEA - Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa BCEOM - Bureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipements d'Outre-Mer (consultants, France) CCCE - Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique MPWUT - Ministry of Public Works, Urban Development, and Transport PAD - Port Autonome de Dakar FISCAL YEAR OF PAD July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR REcuNSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR THE DAKAR FISHING PORT PROJECT 1. I submit-the following report and recommendation on a proposed Loan to the Republic of Senegal in the amount of US$6.0 million equivalent to help finance the Dakar Fishing Port Project. The Loan will be from the Bank's Third Window facility, with interest at 4.20 percent per annum; the first repayment date of the Loan is January 15, 1983, and the final maturity date is January 15, 2001. US$5.6 million of the Loan proceeds will be re-lent to the Port Autonome de Dakar (PAD), the proposed executing agency for the project, on the same terms as a conventional Bank Loan, i.e. 20 years includ- ing 4-1/2 years of grace, with interest at 8.20 percent per annum; the remain- ing $0.4 million will be used directly by the Government for execution of a study to establish a plan of action for development of the fishing sector. Additional financing for the proposed project will be provided by loans from the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) in the amount of US$7.2 million equivalent, and the French Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE) in the amount of US$6.0 million equivalent. The BADEA loan is for a period of 20 years including 5 years of grace, with interest at 5 percent per annum; the CCCE loan is for 20 years including 4 years of grace, with interest at 5.5 percent per annum. PART I: THE ECONOMY 2. A report entitled "The Economy of Senegal" (212-SE) was distri- buted to the Executive Directors on September 10, 1973. Since then, a series of preparatory sector missions and a basic economic mission visited Senegal to update the macroeccriomic data base and to review the country's development strategy. The following paragraphs reflect the findings of these missions, whose conclusions will be included in a basic economic report now being prepared. Updated country data appear in Annex I. Economic Structure and Past Developments 3. Senegal is situated at the extreme western part of the African con- tinent. In the interior, the mainstay of the economy is millet cultivation and nomadic cattle-raising for domestic consumption, and groundnut cultiva- tion for expotts. Soils are generally poor, and variations in rainfall periodically cause severe food shortages in the months between the sowing and harvesting cf the next crop. The large river basins -- some of them fed in the tropical rain zone -- have so far been exploited only marginally. Land distribution is fairly even. In the western part of the country arahle land is becomiiing scarce, but in the extreme south-2ast some good land is still available. The modern sector of the economy is concentrated in Dakar, a well organized city of about 1 million inhabitants. The economic base of Dakar consists of excellent port facilities, an industry which is turning gradually toward exports, and a small but fast-growing tourist sector. Senegal's per capita GNP for 1975 was estimated at $370, but average in- come in Dakar is roughly five times as high as in the countryside. This document has a restricted distribujtion and may be used by recipients only in the pcfformsnre of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be, disc losed without World Banik authorizaticn.  - 2 - 4-. During the t960s, the Senegalese economy experienced, virtual stag- nation as real output increased less rapidly than population,. and per capita GNP declined. Two factors were responsible for this situation. First, with. independence, SenegaI lost its privileged position as the center of French. West Africa,. and therefore had to adjust to reduced economic, administrative afid political circumstances. Secondly, in the latter part of the decade, groundnut production fell due to unfavorable weather and' declining export prices. In the 1970s, a new stage in Senegal's development set in, charac- terized by a higher rate of private and public investment. Private invest- ments, which had hovered around 4 percent of GDP in the late 1960s, rose to 8 percent during the period 1970-75. Until 1972, public investments stayed at around 5.5 percent of GDP, but increased to 7 percent in 1975. 5. While the 1970's saw a rise in the rate of investment, output and incomes were depressed in 1972 and 1973 by the Sahel's most severe drought in over a century, which brought a decline in GDP in real terms. After 1973, when weather conditions improved and purchasing power of the rural population was restored, both agricultural and industrial production shot up. The long-standing Government program to modernize rainfed agriculture proved to be very successful in years with better rains. In 1975176 the groundnut crop reached a historical record of 1.45 million tons (more than double the average for the 1968-73 period), followed by a crop of 1.2 million tons in 1976/77; manufacturing industry grew by about 11 percent per year between 1973 and 1975. Total production increased in real terms by 5 percent in 1974 and 7 per- cent in 1975, and continued at about the same rate in 1976. 6. Strong price increases for Senegal's major exports helped to bring about the economic recovery. The prices of both groundnuts and phosphates quadrupled over the period 1969-74, providing strong incentives to production. However, since prices of imported oil and food also increased at high rates, the gains in real income from the rise in export prices were limited. More- over, in 1975 international prices for Senegal's exports again began to fall, almost offsetting the growth in real output. These wide international price fluctuations had serious consequences on domestic prices, public finance, and balance of payments. Public Finance and Balance of Payments 7. The Government responded with considerable flexibility in the adoption of economic policies. In 1974, the Government initially tried to maintain stable domestic prices in the face of the skyrocketing food import prices. By end-1974, it became clear that the costs of this policy were becoming excessive and that changes would need to be made, even though trans- fers to the public sector resulting from improved groundnut production and prices were much higher than in the preceding year. To reduce subsidies and put public finances on a sounder footing, the Government raised the prices for rice, sugar, and groundnut oil by 40 to 90 percent. To compen- sate for the rapid increase in basic food prices, Government salaries were raised on average by 16 percent, with actual increases ranging from 60 per- cent for the lower grades to 3 percent for the higher ones. Average consumer prices rose by some 28 percent in six months' time, but the Government managed  to stabilize prices almost completely thereafter. At the time consumer prices were raised, the Government also increased producer prices for groundnuts to bring them closer to world prices which were particularly high. The cost to the Treasury of this latter step was expected to be compensated in large part by additional revenues from the profitable phosphate mine in which the Govern- ment increased its participation while levying an 80 percent tax on the excess profits accruing from the price rise on the world market. In recent years, Government revenues from phosphates have amounted to roughly $45 million a year. 8. These steps led to an increase in public savings from a yearly average of US$27 million during fiscal years 1970 through 1973, to US$58 million during fiscal years 1974 through 1976. The higher level of public savings was doubtless an important factor in stimulating the Government to increase its expenditure on new investments from a yearly average of US$25 million to US$59 million during the same two periods. In addition to the rise in investment, purchases of equity and lending to domestic enterprises by the Government increased from an annual average of US$5 million to US$42 million, mainly because of the participation in the phosphate mine and the acquisition of two foreign-owned public utility companies. The combined capital outlays of the Government were thus substantially in excess of public savings, and were financed in large part through foreign bank loans. As a consequence, foreign debt service carried by the Central Government increased from $8 million in FY73 to $28 million in fiscal year 1976, representing about 7 percent of Central Government revenues. 9. The balance of payments came under heavy pressure in 1973 because of low groundnut exports and increasing imports of foodstuffs and equipment goods, and net foreign reserves fell to minus US$32 million. In the following years the deficit on current transactions was reduced, but the outflows of private capital related to the acquisition of foreign enterprises continued, and net foreign reserves reached a level of minus US$66 million at the end of 1975. This was financed by US$30 million in IMF oil facilities, and the rest by increasing indebtedness of the mostly foreign-owned commercial banks with their parent companies. Senegal's membership in the West African Monetary Union lessens the risks usually associated with such low foreign reserves. 10. During 1976, the balance of payments remained under pressure. The state marketing board purchased the large groundnut crop from the farmers at the favorable prices established in 1974, injecting massive purchasing power into the economy. Investments and economic activity are therefore likely to continue their fast growth, and have substantially increased the demand for imports. However, export revenues stagnated since groundnut prices were 45 percent below the 1974 peak, and phosphate prices were down by 40 percent. Price declines of the same order of magnitude took place in some of Senegal's food imports, but the net effect on the terms of trade was heavily negative. 11. The drop in export prices also created a considerable problem for public finance. The losses on groundnut transactions in the stabilization fund were, to a large extent, compensated by gains on the domestic sales of  - 4 - rice and sugar imports, but budgeted revenues from excess profits on phos- phate operations did not materialize, creating unexpected deficits during 1976/77. Moreover, the decline of phosphate revenues diminished Government's ability to cover its financial deficits on the Eurodollar market. In January 1977, the Government decided to adjust its fiscal policies. It postponed all new current and capital expenditure programs, increased duties on imports from the EEC, and is considering an increase in the sales tax. It also abolished subsidies on wheat flour, and reduced fertilizer subsidies by 50 percent. The whole package should improve Government finances by $32 million on an annual basis which will, to a large extent, compensate for the loss of phosphate revenues. Finally, very recently there has been a recovery of groundnut prices, which will eliminate the losses on groundnut transac- tions in the stabilization fund, and one can conclude that the Government has successfully restored a balance in its current operations. Prospects and Creditworthiness 12. The Government's long-range development strategy remains based on promotion of agriculture and export-oriented activities. The agricultural program calls for development of areas less affected by rainfall fluctua- tions (Casamance and Eastern Senegal) where cash crops other than ground- nuts can be grown. Irrigated cereal production is being developed in the arid northern part of the country along the Senegal River. This policy will make the country less dependent on the uncertainties of its climate and world market prices; but since the majority of the rural poor are involved in groundnut farming, the Government is continuing its efforts to promote animal traction, treated seeds, fertilizer use, and crop rotation to raise the productivity of farmers. The Government also aims at long-term improvement of the balance of payments mainly through tripling of phosphate mining capacity, promotion of local cereal production to reduce the heavy burden of food imports, and development of light export industries and of tourism. The Government is actively preparing projects in these fields, but because costs are relatively high in mining and other export sectors, progress in developing efficient investments may be slow, and a cautious view of the long-term outlook is warranted. In particular, the expansion of phosphate mining is uncertain owing to capacity increases in other parts of the world and falling world market prices. With chances for export growth limited, and substitution of locally produced cereals for imports critically dependent on very large investments in irrigation, the trade deficit may stay high, even if the growth objectives is cut back to well below 4.5 percent a year, as compared to an official objective of 5.8 percent. Foreign capital aid and some commercial loans are expected to be available up to a potential of $214 million a year during the 1977/78-1980/81 Plan period in order to finance a widening gap in the balance of payments. 13. Because of its public finance and balance of payments situation, Senegal needs a high percentage of foreign aid in the financing of new proj- ects. To replace the dwindling savings from the phosphate operation, the Government raised indirect taxes and reduced subsidies, which is the most it can be expected to do without excessive pressure on input costs and consumer prices. Moreover, hardly any other source of finance is open to the Government. As a member of a monetary union, Government borrowing  from the Central Bank is subject to a statutory ceiling which has almost been reached, and access to private savings in Senegal and abroad is also very limited. To avoid cutbacks in the investment program below a level necessary to realize only modest economic growth, foreign donors should be prepared to raise their share in financing investment from 75 percent to about 85 percent, which implies substantial financing of local costs in appropriate cases. 14. Senegal is considered eligible for Bank lending on Third Window terms on the basis of the following criteria: (i) Per Capita Income: In 1975 Senegal's GNP per capita was US$370. (ii) Performance. The Government has demonstrated its commitment to development by increasing public invest- ments since 1970 by 19 percent per year in current prices. The development strategy continues to be based on agricultural production and rural devel- opment to which 27 percent of the new investment program is allocated. In recent years, price policies have become more favorable to farmers who, as a group, are the poorest segment of the population. (iii) Ability to Repay: The Government has demonstrated its capacity to respond adequately to the problems which this vulnerable economy is bound to encounter periodically, and there are reasonable prospects for long-term diversification and growth. In view of these factors and Senegal's access to short-term financing facilities and membership in the West African Monetary Union which reduce the risks associated with economic fluctuations, the country is creditworthy for addi- tional Bank lending. However, lenders (including the Bank) should provide a large part of their assistance on concessionary terms in order to avoid a rapid build-up of debt service. Assuming the continuation of responsive and sensible policies, public debt service is expected to increase from 7 percent of export earnings in 1975 to roughly 11 percent in 1980, and to be kept between 10 and 15 percent in the long run. (iv) Access to Alternative Sources of Finance: Since prices of Senegal's major exports on the world market fell dramatically, the country's ability to borrow from private banks on the Eurocurrency market has been reduced considerably, while at the same time it has no special access to new sources of concessionary finance. Financing development therefore depends heavily on developing good projects particularly in the production sectors, and attracting financing from the Bank and other sources, in order to cover foreseeable needs for capital inflows at concessionary terms. PART II: BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SENEGAL 15. The Bank Group has had 30 operations in Senegal to date. Total outstanding lending amounts to US$138.5 million, including eighteen IDA credits, ten Bank loans, two blends of Bank and IDA funds, three IFC opera- tions, and one blend of Bank and IFC funds. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as of February 28, 1977, and notes on the implementation of ongoing projects. Execution of these projects, apart from the Railway Project, is progressing without ex- ceptional delays. The procurement for the Railway Project has been slow due to time-consuming contract approval procedures, but most components have now been received or ordered. Two agricultural credits (140-SE and 404-SE) provided for technical assistance designed to facilitate reorganization of the Office National de Cooperation et d'Assistance au Developpement (ONCAD), the  - 6 - national marketing agency, but the programs did not achieve the anticipated results. The Government took steps in early 1975 to strengthen ONCAD's management and financial operations, but its overall performance has not improved. 16. The Bank Group's share in total disbursements to Senegal over 1976- 81 will stay at around 15 percent, of which roughly 40 percent will be IDA. The Bank Group's share in outstanding debt was 19 percent in 1975, and will slowly start, to surpass that level after 1981. The Bank Group's share in public debt service is expected to increase from 2.7 percent in 1975 to about 8 percent in 1981, a rise which is mainly due to the increase in Bank loans from 16 percent of Senegal's outstanding debt to the Bank Group in 1975 to 43 percent by 1981. 17. The objectives of Bank Group lending in Senegal fall under four main headings. Priority is being given to rural development, including development of irrigation in the Senegal River Valley Region (e.g., the on- going River Polders project, and the proposed Debi Lampsar Irrigation Develop- ment project appraised in February 1977), intensification of groundnut pro- duction, and diversification into new crops and new regions (e.g., the Sine Saloum, Terres Neuves and Livestock projects, and the Second Sedhiou project in Casamance); as in the past, we would expect our agricultural lending over the next few years to exceed one-third of the total. Secondly, we have supported diversification of the economy by lending to the growing industrial sector through the Societe Financiere Senegalaise pour le Developpement de l'Industrie et du Tourisme (SOFISEDIT), a development finance company estab- lished with Bank Group assistance in 1974; this diversification objective is being further assisted by a second SOFISEDIT project approved by the Board in September 1976, and by a proposed project for the development of tourism infrastructure on the Petite Cote which we plan to submit for Board considera- tion during the current fiscal year. Thirdly, we have encouraged moderniza- tion and expansion of the country's infrastructure through lending for high- ways, feeder roads, railways, and the Port of Dakar; we are pursuing this effort through the proposed project for extension of the Dakar fishing port presented in this report. Finally, Government has asked us to help re-orient and expand the country's education system, and we are in the process of identifying a follow-up operation to our Second Education Project. PART III: THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 18. Senegal possesses a fairly well-developed transport system concen- trated on the Cap Vert Peninsula (including the capital city of Dakar) and the Groundnut Basin farther to the east, which are the areas with the larg- est population and economic activity. Roads are the principal mode of domestic transport, carrying about 75% of commercial inter-urban passenger and freight traffic excluding phosphates. The railway system consists of a main line from Dakar to Kidira on the Mali border, and several branch lines including connections from Dakar to St. Louis in the north and to the Taiba phosphate mine. Traffic at the Port of Dakar, mainly phosphates, petroleum, general merchandise, and international traffic for Mali and to a limited extent Mauritania, has doubled over the last ten years, and now totals about  5 million tons annually. Aviation centers on the Dakar airport, a major international transit point for Europe-Africa-South America traffic. Three secondary ports and 18 regional airports and airfields are located outside the Cap Vert region. 19. The Government's transport strategy aims essentially at: (i) deve- loping local transport infrastructure in support of overall economic growth, particularly in agriculture and fisheries and in the newly developing indus- trial and tourism sectors; (ii) promoting regional integration, especially to develop efficient transport links within rural areas, and connections with East Senegal and the Casamance region in the south; and (iii) assuring adequate maintenance for the already extensive investment in the sector. In addition, Senegal will continue to provide neighboring landlocked Mali with an efficient link to the sea, and to upgrade its own international transport facilities in air, port, and railway services. The Government's ability to do effective sector planning and coordination has been improved by the creation in mid-1975 of the Directorate of Studies and Programming (DSP) within the Ministry of Public Works, Urban Development and Transport. DSP, with technical assistance financed by the Bank Group under the Third Highway Project will execute economic and technical studies, and help to determine strategy and investment priorities in the transport sector. The proposed project fot extension of the Dakar fishing port is designed to fit into the Government's overall transport strategy, while at the same time addressing some of tlew needs for development of the industrial fishing sector which has so far becA rather neglected. 20. hank Group operations in the sector have,helped to establish the basic trantport infrastructure, and then to ensure its successful tlairtenance 1rnd effici(tlLt use; the greatest activity has been in highways, particularly in pavemenat strengthening and maintenance operations, as well as feeder road constructiSni and improvement. Total lending in the amount of US$42.3 million cquivalcnt lhas helped finance four projects in the highway sub-sector, two directed t-tward improving the physical infrastructure of the railway system and increaing locomotive capacity, one in aviation for major improvements to the Dakar Airport, and one for extension of a mole at the Port.of Dakar, reconstruction of two quays, and execution of a dredging program. Details of ongoing prejects are given in Annex II. The Port of Dakar 21. The port of Dakar enjoys an excellent sheltered location free from heavy swells and siltation. There are 46 well-equipped berths to handle containers, general cargo, phosphates and groundnuts for export, oil and petroleum products, and fishing traffic. Road and rail access to the port is good. The general layout of the port is shown in Map IBRD 12251R. 22. As a result of the very rapid expansion of the industrial fish- ing fleet over the past ten years, there is now a severe shortage of berth space for fishing vessels and for landing the catches, and commercial opera- tions at the port are becoming seriously affected. Since traffic projections through 1983 indicate a notable increase not only in overall dry cargo but also in fresh fish and fish products, there is an urgent need for the proposed project which provides for extension of the fishing port facilities and the  - 8 - required organization and management services. The Government is studying the possibility of constructing a new port at Sedar, about 80 km north of Dakar, to handle imports of crude oil for a proposed new-refinery, and exports of phosphates, petroleum products, and possibly iron ore. These studies are still only at a preliminary stage, but even if the port were eventually built, activity in Dak,ar Port and resultant revenues would be affected only minimally. 23. The Port Autonome de Dakar (PAD) was formed in .1959, and since 1960 has been a public enterprise charged with operation and maintenance of the port facilities, and responsible for improvement avid expansion works. Separate Government departments control health and immigration services, police, customs, navigation aids, and railways-within the port. Executive functions are vested in the Port Director. More substantive,decisions of the port's 17-member Board of Directors are spbject to joint approval of the Ministers of Finance and of Public Works, UIrban Development and Transvort; tariffs on goods also require the agreement of the Minister of Indu4tri4l Development. 24. Management of the port is good, and technical assistance staff are assigned and used effectively. Personnel, including expatriates, are generally well trained. The port organization is satisfactory and works well. There is however no special unit to manage and control fishing oper- ations, and only recently has a system been instituted for recording the movements of fishing vessels and evaluating landed catches. The proposed project provides for the establishment and staffing of an appropriAte or- ganization within PAD to manage the new fishing port. PART IV: THE FISHERY SECTOR Marine Resources 2 25. The continental shelf off Senegal covers an area of about 24,000 km Oceanographic conditions along the coast are very favorable to marine life,. and allow abundant fish resources. The exploitation of these resources is periodically reviewed by a Working Group on resources evaluation of the FAO Fishing Committee for the Eastern Central Atlantic. The reports of this Working Group provide up-to-date information on fish stocks, and make recommen- dations on research programs to be undertaken. In addition, extensive studies have been carried out by the Dakar Research Center of Oceanography with assistance from the UNDP/FAO to evaluate fish stocks in the waters off Senegal, Gambia, and Guinea Bissau, and to recommend the maximum feasible level of catches. Current estimates indicate that a total of about 900,000 tons of coastal pelagic fish, tuna, demersal and similar exploitable species can be caught annually without depleting the stocks. The Fishing Industry 26. Over the past 20 years, Senegal has become one of the leaders of fishery development in West Africa, and its fishermen among the most active and successful in the region. This development has come about primarily  -9- because of the existence within Senegalese territorial waters (recently extended to 150 miles offshore) of a large fishing potential, and because of the Government's efforts to strictly enforce the territorial limits. Until recently, fish stocks off the Senegalese coast were exploited by large foreign fleets not based in West Africa which usually ship directly to consuming countries, and land only a small part of their catches for pro- cessing in Dakar. Exclusive fishing zones are now established in accordance with recent fishing agreements (see para. 32), and foreign vessels must now land a large part of their catches at Dakar, and also pay tonnage fees on volumes of fish landed. Over the life of the existing fishing agreements (an estimated average of about ten years), a total of about US$55 million equivalent in loans and credits from various bilateral and multilateral donors is expected to be generated, and a significant proportion of this amount will be made available for investment in the Senegalese fishing indus- try during the next development plan period 1977-81. 27. The fishing sector contributes about 7% of GDP, although only about one-third of the estimated potential catch in Senegalese waters is now being landed. Approximately 75% of this catch results from the operation of about 4,000 canoes employing some 30,000 fishermen; this traditional fishing sec- tor has developed over recent years as a result of operations in various projects financed by the Government and other bilateral sources, particularly Canada and Denmark. Landings of the Dakar-based industrial fleet account for the remaining 25% of total catch, mostly in high-value species, and contribute approximately 4% of GDP and 9% of total export value. Total landings of the Dakar-based fleet have been increasing at about 18% annually from 16,000 tons in 1964 to about 80,000 tons in 1974. 28. The rapid growth of the industrial fishing industry has resulted in a serious shortage of berth space in the port of Dakar available for fishing vessels. The proposed project would be a major step in expanding port facilities so that Senegal can realize the important potential contri- bution of the industrial fishing sector to the country's economic growth. The Dakar-based fleet currently in operation consists of about 150 vessels, about half of them Senegalese-owned. The net fixed asset value of the fleet is about US$25 million. However, many of the vessels are old and becoming uneconomical to operate, and major renewal is required with larger and more expensive vessels with greater fish capacity, but requiring less maintenance and smaller crews. Adequate financing for this renewal effort is expected to become available within the sector from revenues derived primarily from fishing agreements with foreign fleets, as well as from profits from commercial fishing, and through local commercial and development banks. Fish Marketing and Processing 29. The total amount of fish landed in Senegal in 1975 was about 300,000 tons (excluding landings by foreign fleets for temporary storage in Dakar before re-export), of which approximately 240,000 tons were marketed fresh for local consumption. About 80,000 tons were landed by the industrial fleet, and almost three-quarters of this amount were processed for export, mostly to Europe. Although there is a considerable demand for imports of fish products in major West African countries, exports from Senegal have so far been limited to about 15,000 - 18,000 tons a year, mainly to the Ivory Coast. The development  - 10 - of Senegalese exports within the region has been hampered especially by competition from foreign vessels, and by the lack of organization and govern- mental support to Senegalese firms for export promotion. The Government has taken several measures to help remedy these problems. Among the most important is the recently established policy which allows fleets of West African countries to operate in Senegalese waters if they open up their markets to Senegalese fish products. Also, new joint ventures have been created between Senegalese and Ivorian firms for marketing Senegalese products in the Ivory Coast. The proposed project provides consulting ser- vices to establish a plan of action for development of the fishery sector; this is expected to include a study of possible new markets for high-value species particularly in Europe and Japan and for other species of pelagic fish on the West African market, and to recommend measures for assuring development of these markets. 30. There are 23 major fish processing plants with a total raw material capacity more than double their present output. In 1975, net fixed assets of the processing industry amounted to about $14 million, and total turnover of the processing plants at Dakar was about $42 million, of which about 75% in frozen fish, 20% in canned products, and 5% in fishmeal. Sectoral Policy 31. The Directorate of Fishery and Oceanography within the Ministry of Rural Development is charged with implementing Government policy in the sector; it is particularly responsible for preparing projects, negotiating fishing agreements, and operating coastal patrol vessels to enforce fishing regulations. The Senegalese Navy is responsible for control of the terri- torial waters, and the Merchant Marine for vessel registration, maritime labor, and safety at sea. 32. In addition to the traditional agreement with the Gambia which pro- vides reciprocal fishing rights between the two countries, the Government of Senegal has passed a variety of laws in recent years to permit better preservation of fish resources in its territorial waters, and to promote the development of a dynamic domestic fishing sector through a liberal policy concerning foreign and national private investment. The policies regarding fishing operations in Senegalese waters differ as between develop- ing and developed countries. Fleets from West African countries south of Guinea where fishing is limited are allowed in Senegalese waters on condition that the vessels are based at Dakar and land their catches there, that they invest in processing plants, and that their markets be open to Senegalese fish exports without tariff discrimination. Fishing agreements with developed countries are entered into on a selective basis, with priority given to those which have traditionally participated in Senegal's economic development. Agreements include fees for catches not landed in Senegal, special import tariffs for fish products re-exported from Dakar to the home country, and the creation of joint ventures to develop the Senegalese fishing industry. Since the establishment of this policy, several countries including Japan, Spain, France, Italy, Kuwait, and Poland have entered into agreements, and most of them now have fleets based in Dakar. 33. Agreements now being negotiated with foreign fleets will de-emphasize the policy of "fishing royalties" and will instead require direct investments  - 11 - in Senegal. Attempts will be made to develop joint venture enterprises in which Senegalese would own a minimum of one-third of the capital, and would be associated with management. Further, a concentrated effort will be directed to developing Senegalese enterprises sufficiently to enable them to compete with foreign corporations in fishing and processing activities, and in market- ing of export products. The proposed extension of the Dakar fishing port, and planning and management of its operations, would provide the infrastructure needed to help the Government fulfill its primary objective of increasing its share of the value-added of fish caught within Senegalese territorial waters. Training and Technical Assistance 34. Training of fishermen and ship mechanics has increased signifi- cantly over the past 15 years, but existing programs need to be improved and expanded. The Government is alert to the training requirements to ser- vice the expected rapid development of maritime fishing over the next decade, and intends to develop training in the sector at several levels: college and university, and post-university training in management and specialized fishery activities which is presently non-existent; professional training at the Nautical College of Dakar (where some technical assistance and equipment purchase are being financed under the Association's ongoing Second Education Project) and at the School of Fisheries Administration; vocational training to develop technicians and mechanics in artisanal fishing activities; and management training for officers for four or five new secondary fishing ports which the Government is planning to develop. 35. For the proposed project, it is planned to establish a separate organization within PAD responsible for management and operation of the fish- ing port, so as to assure adequate control and development of the industrial fishing sector, and to derive as much revenue as possible from activities at the new port. PAD personnel for the various management-level positions re- quired will be trained by technical assistance experts to be provided by FAO. PART V: THE PROJECT Backgroun'd 36. The first Dakar Port project (Loan 493-SE, US$4.0 million, 1967) was designed principally to restore and expand existing general cargo-handling facilities; the project also included important financial and institutional objectives relating to port organization and operations, and for improvement of the accounting system. The project was implemented satisfactorily and almost exactly as conceived, with final costs approximately 15% lower than appraisal estimates. During final supervision of the project in mid-1973, the proposed operation for extension of the fishing port facilities was identified. 37. Negotiations for the proposed Loan were held in W4ashington in November 1976 with a Senegalese delegation headed by Mr. Tidiane N'Diaye,  - 12 - Director of Finance in the Ministry of Planning, and with representatives from the co-financers BADEA and CCCE. Further discussions were held with the co- financers in Paris in March 1977 to finalize details of the financing plan. The Staff Project Report (No. 1260a-SE) is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. A Loan and Project summary is given in Annex III, and the project layout is shown in Maps IBRD 11251R and 11252. Description 38. The project consists of: (i) civil works (ir.cluding consulting services for supervision) for: (a) construction of about 1,500 m of new berth face; (b) reclama- tion of about 10.5 ha of land; (c) paving of the reclaimed areas and installation of ancillary services; (d) demolition of the existing slipway and associated buildings; and (e) construction of the main access road to the new fishing port (see Map IBRD 12252). (ii) technical assistance for (a) management, operations, and planning for the fishing port; (b) introduction of analytical accounting procedures and preparation of a cost-based tariff structure; and (c) introduction of an "ad valorem" tariff structure for fish traffic. (iii) consulting services to (a) study and define the needs of the port of Dakar for nandling container ships, and outline the development of container port facilities and equipment required to handle future container traffic adequately and competitively; and (b) study in depth the current situation in industrial and traditional fisheries and related activities, and then establish a coherent plan of action for development of the sector over the next ten years. Execurion 39. LDtatiled engineering, preparation of tenders, and evaluation of bids for the proposed civil works have been completed by consultants BCEOM (France) wicr. FAD) financing. Consultants for supervision and control of the work.s will De selected in agreement wiih, and on terms and conditions accep- .able to the Bank. The consultants will be expected to work in collaboration with PAD's engineering staff so that the latter can receive the maximum training and experience from being closely involved in implementation and supervision of the proposed works. Civil works are ex,pected to start in mid-1977, and to take about three years to complete.  - 13 - 40. Management and operation of the fishing port will be by PAD per- sonnel trained to fill the various positions required. The required train- ing will be carried out during the project construction period and for about one year after the start of fishing port operations by experts provided by FAO and financed under the proposed Loans. Technical assistance for the introduc- tion of analytical accounting, preparation of a cost-based tariff structure, and introduction of an "ad valorem" tariff system for fish traffic will be provided either by a consulting firm or by individual experts selected in agreement with, and under terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank. 41. The proposed project provides about 30 man-months of services over six months for execution of a container study by consultants who would be expected to: (a) study current and projected container traffic for the West Africa coast, and determine what proportion could pass through Dakar port; (b) determine the scope and timing of facilities and equipment required to service this traffic; (c) prepare detailed cost estimates and an economic and financial justification for the proposed facilities, with recommendations regarding management and tariffs; and (d) update the existing port master plan to include the proposed facilities and the areas zoned for the fishing port, containers, and other developments. 42. The proposed project also provides about 60 man-months of consult- ing services over approximately 15 months to carry out a fishing sector study. Consultants will be required primarily to: (i) identify and define the different types of fishing activities in the country and carry out technical and economic analysis of each, as well as a critical analysis of the possibilities for development taking into account particularly available resources, markets, and other relevant technical, sociological and economic factors; (ii) carry out an inventory of equipment used in the fishing sector (ships, freezing equipment, factories, etc.) and analyze their productivity levels; (iii) analyze domestic and export markets for fish products, and study possible new markets for high-value fish for example in Europe and Japan, and for other species in the West African region, and measures required to assure their development; and (iv) study the organization and functioning of different services responsible for the administration, control and planning of fisheries activities, as well as those of research institutes, training centers, and other agencies offering credit or other assistance to the fishing sector. More generally, the con- sultants will be expected to evaluate the various programs and development projects in the sector either underway or planned, to study the functioning of fisheries cooperatives and propose a system which could work effectively, and investigate the socio-economic context in which both the industrial and the traditional fishing sectors operate. It is-expected that the required services will be provided by one or more consulting firms, and will eventually be completed by other specialists on short-term assignments as required. On the basis of the broad lines of their analysis as outlined above, the consul- tants will be expected to make realistic recommendations for the preparation and implementation of a coordinated plan of action for development of the fisheries sector over the next ten years. The above outline terms of refer- ence have been agreed with the Government.  - 14 - 43. Details of all arrangements for project implementation and supervi- sion (in which the Bank will have the principal role), as well as outline terms of reference for all the proposed consulting and technical assistance services, have been agreed with the Government, PAD and the co-financers (Sections 3.01-3.02 of the Loan Agreement, and Sections 2.01-2.08 and 4.04 of the Project Agreement). Cost Estimates and Financing 44. The total cost of the proposed project is estimated at US$24 mil- lion equivalent, with foreign costs of about US$10 million (about 40%). The costs include about US$2.7 million equivalent representing two tax elements (turnover tax and licensing fees) which will be paid by PAD as part of its contribution to the project costs; the Government has agreed to exempt the project from all other taxes, as well as from customs duties on imported materials and equipment. PAD will also have to pay interest during project construction estimated at US$3.31 million equivalent. The above cost estimates also include a 10% physical contingency allowance on civil works items, as well as price contingencies averaging 22.5% over the project period based on assumed annual increases applied as follows: 1976, 13%; 1977-79, 12%; and 1980-81, 10%. 45. Costs for civil works are based on consultants' recommendations following the evaluation of tenders received in September 1976. The rela- tively low foreign exchange cost is due to the fact that the contractor submitting the lowest tender is locally based, and also because of the expected predominant use of local materials in the construction works (para. 48). 46. Costs for technical assistance services (about 135 man-months) have been estimated on the following basis: (i) a total of about 48 man- months for the Fishing Port Manager and the Harbor Master; (ii) up to 21 man-months for the Fishing Port Planning Adviser to prepare the land-use pattern for the reclaimed lands, and to make required adjustments in the paving works and ancillary services; (iii) about 54 man-months of expert services to advise on preparation of analytical accounting and of cost-based tariffs; and (iv) about 12 men-months for an advisor on the application of "ad valoremr" tariffs for fish traffic. A cost of about US$8,000 per man- month for expatriate experts (including direct and indirect costs) has been estimated for the proposed technical assistance and consulting services for the studies, based on current costs for similar expert services in other projects in Senegal and in West Africa generally.  - 15 - 47. A summary table of cost estimates and the proposed project financing plan is shown below: (in US$ Million equivalent) Costs Financing Arrangements on joint basis Local Foreign Total IBRD BADEA CCCE PAD Govt. 1/ 1/ 1. Civil Works 12.86 8.59 21.45 4.51 7.20 6.00 3.74 - (including contingencies) (3.31) (2.22) (5.53) 2. Construction Supervision 0.37 0.37 0.74 0.37 - - 0.37 - 3. Technical Assistance 0.48 0.48 0.96 0.48 - - 0.48 - (about 135 manmonths) 4. Studies 0.16 0.64 0.80 0.64 - - 0.06 0.10 (about 90 manmonths) Total 13.87 10.08 23.95 6.00 7.20 6.00 4.65 0.10 Percentage of Total Cost (25%) (30%) (25%) (19.5%) (0.5%) 1/ Including US$2.7 million equivalent in taxes. The total cost of civil works will be financed jointly by the Bank, BADEA, CCCE and PAD. The external lenders will cover 90% of total project costs net of taxes, and the Bank Loan will finance US$3.68 million of foreign exchange costs and US$2.32 million equivalent of local currency expenditures. The financing of local costs for this project is considered appropriate because of the Government's current difficult public finance situation (see para. 13). Procurement and Disbursements 48. The proposed civil works were split into five lots for tender purposes following procedures of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines. Of the 25 contracting firms which indicated interest in the project, 21 were prequalified for all or some of the lots. Contractors were invited to tender for all of the lots or for a combination of lots for which they were pre-qualified. Competitive tenders were received which were well prepared; the lowest tender is about 30% below the consultants' estimate at project appraisal. Contract awards will be based on the lowest evaluated combination of bids, and will be made only after the proposed Loan is approved.  - 16 - 49. Disbursements from the proposed Loan will be made on the following basis: (i) for civil works, 21% of total costs; (ii) for consulting services for construction supervision and technical assistance, 50% of total costs (representing the estimated foreign exchange component); and (iii) for consult- ing services for studies, 80% of total costs (representing the estimated foreign exchange component). Environmental Impact of the Project 50. The configuration of the proposed fishing port includes the creation of a sheltered basin. The entrance to the basin is up-wind of the prevailing winds, and a thermal electricity generating station has its cooling water intake and discharge in the basin; also, a large stormwater canal discharges into the basin. Because of these features, it is essential that water in the basin should be able to circulate with tidal changes, and measures have been taken to assure this. 51. There has been some concern that in the present situation where many fishing vessels use temporary berths in the port area near the phos- phate-loading berths, there may be some contamination of the fish catches; this problem is expected to disappear when all fishing vessels are berthed at the new project site away from the phosphate berths. Employment and Urban Impact 52. The fishing industry based in Dakar now employs about 5,500 people, about half of whom are shore-based employees of the fishing fleet and crews of the fishing vessels. In view of changing patterns in the size and techno- logy of these vessels, the numbers of crew employed will increase only slightly as the fleet develops; however, the number of shore-based employees will double by the end of the 1980's as a result of increased operations generated by the proposed project. The range of employment within the indus- try varies widely from unskilled labor to highly trained technicians and operators. 53. Development of the fishing port is expected to have a beneficial urban impact in the renewal of large land areas near the site. PAD has already started acquiring land and demolishing buildings. The newly ac- quired lands will be leased to companies or organizations associated with the fishing industry which need accommodation near the port. Within these zoned lands is a small area currently occupied by about 100 people engaged in very small businesses for fish-drying and salting, and catering services. Since these people will be displaced by the proposed renewal, PAD has arranged to provide a new building near the entrance to the fishing port where they can be relocated, and where catering services can be undertaken under conditions much more hygienic than at present, and with proper sanitation facilities and other amenities. Construction is expected to start shortly.  FINANCIAL EVALUATION Present Financial Position of PAD 54. PAD's audited accounts for the year ending June 30, 1975 show its finances to be fairly sound. However, PAD's cash balance has diminished over the past three years by about CFAF 635 million (approximately US$2.6 million equivalent) due mainly to heavy capital expenditure. Also, its receivables (particularly those concerning Government departments and public enterprises) increased to about 49% of gross operating revenue as against the 15% limit agreed under the First Port Project. This level was reduced to about 36% at June 30, 1976 following PAD's application of specific measures to assure recoveries. Since in view of PAD's obligations under the proposed project it is essential to improve its liquidity, PAD has agreed to the implementation of a plan which prescribes further strict measures to progressively reduce its level of receivables to acceptable limits by December 31, 1977. These limits have been agreed as follows: (i) reduction of ordinary accounts re- ceivable to not more than 15% of gross revenues; and (ii) reduction of spe- cial accounts receivable (pertaining particularly to services for lights, buoys, Dakar-Goree ferry, houses for security guards) from the present level of about CFAF 200 million to CFAF 50 million. (Section 4.08 of the Project Agreement). 55. The Loan Agreement for the First Port Project stipulated that PAD should revise the value of its fixed assets in 1967/68 as a one-time measure, and should achieve a minimum rate of return of 6% on the value of such assets from 1970/71 onwards; a corresponding rate of return of 7% was achieved in 1974/75. The existing assets now need to be revalued at least by the end of fiscal year 1977/78, and thereafter as frequently as necessary at intervals not exceeding five years for the purpose of fixing appropriate tariff levels and acceptable rate of return limits. PAD and the Government have agreed that this will be done in consultation and agreement with the Bank (Section 4.05 of the Project Agreement). 56. In addition to PAD's need to improve its liquidity, port finances also have to be strengthened by augmenting revenues now and in the future. To help assure PAD's ability to meet its increased financial obligations without having to raise tariffs to unrealistically high levels, the Govern- ment has agreed to exempt PAD from paying income tax during the period of project execution. 57. In order to improve its financial control system, the Government recently permitted PAD to have its own internal computer capacity for pre- paring accounts and statistics. PAD has now completed a study of its data processing needs, staff are being trained, and the equipment is expected to be in service by mid-1977. Apart from the relaxation of the central- ized accounting control which this will offer, however, the Government has not yet found it possible to relinquish a priori control as had been agreed under the First Port Project. However, the Government has provided assurances thaX it will take all necessary measures, determined in consultation with the Bank, to grant broader financial autonomy to PAD by June 30, 1977 or a later date as agreed with the Bank (Section 4.05 of the Loan Agreement).  - 18 - Tariffs 58. Port tariffs and related regulations authorized by PAD's Board are subject to Government approval. Tariff increases have been effected regularly since 1967 in compliance with agreements reached under the First Port Project. Following the Bank's suggestion for strengthening PAD's fi- nances in 1976/77, tariffs were revised in July 1976 which should result in an overall increase in estimated revenue for that year of approximately 10.6%. 59. PAD's existing accounting system does not allow costing of ser- vices, and tariffs are consequently not cost-based. The proposed project provides technical assistance (including training of Senegalese counterpart personnel) to devise a new analytical accounting system and a cost-related tariff structure, and to introduce them by July 1, 1978. As regards the traffic in fresh fish and fish products, the project provides further tech- nical assistance to implement an "ad valorem" system of tariffs. This is considered more appropriate than the present per-ton basis, primarily because in determining taxable capacity the value of different species is more significant than their weight. The proposed "ad valorem" system will also be introduced by July 1, 1978 (Section 4.04 of the Project Agreement). Financial Projections 60. Revenue estimates to 1982/83 have been based on existing tariffs as applied to current traffic forecasts, and on the assumption that, even before project completion, PAD will improve its control of fishing opera- tions sufficiently to increase revenue. Expenditure estimates allow for an annual inflation rate of 6% and an annual increase of 4% on account of traffic growth. Other main assumptions, based on agreements reached under the proposed project, are that PAD will not be subject to income tax until the project is completed, and that it will restrict its non-project capital expenditure to an annual average of CFAF 500 million during the project period. The financial projections, which allow for revaluation of assets in 1977/78 and 1982/83, indicate that PAD must raise additional revenue almost continuously from 1977/78, mainly to meet its increased financial obligations arising from the project. For this purpose, PAD will have to achieve a minimum rate of return on net fixed assets in use of 6% up to 1976/77, of 5.5% in: each year until 1980/81 or until completion of the project whichever is later, and from 1981/82 (or the year from which income tax is levied for the first time) a minimum rate of return of 4.75%. PAD will also be expected to maintain a working ratio not exceeding 60% until 1979/80, and not exceeding 55% thereafter. Agreements have been reached on achievement of the above stipulated levels (Sections 4.03, 4.06, and 4.09 cf the Project Agreement). 61. PAD's ratios of current assets and liquid assets to current lia- bilities will improve with the accumulation of cash representing mainly additional depreciation. As a result of the proposed large-scale borrowing for the project, the debt/equity ratio will increase from 5/95 in 1975/76 to 26/74 in 1979/80, a level which would still be considered acceptable.  Nevertheless, PAD has agreed not to incur any additional long-term debt, except in agreement with the Bank, unless its net revenue is at least 1.5 times the maximum future debt service requirement (Section 4.07 of the Pro- ject Agreement). ECONOMIC EVALUATION 62. The proposed project has been designed to eliminate the present congestion at Dakar's fishing fleet facilities, and to provide adequate berthing facilities for both domestic and foreign fishing fleets; satisfactory completion of these measures will help the Government fulfill its objective of developing the industrial fishing sector and expanding local processing activities to increase exports. Landings by the Dakar-based industrial fleet increased from about 16,000 tons in 1964 to almost 80,000 tons in 1974/75, i.e. at an average rate of 18% p.a. Present forecasts show that these volumes would reach about 125,000 tons in 1979, 200,000 tons in 1983, and possibly a maximum of about 260,000 tons by the end of the 1980s. Landings by foreign fleets are also expected to increase over the same period from their present level of about 30,000 tons to about 80,000 tons; these fleets operate off the West African coast, and occasionally call at Dakar to sell their fish catch to processing plants or to use shore storage facilities before re-export. Project Benefits and Risks 63. The proposed project is expected to yield direct benefits mainly from: (a) improvement of existing operations of the fishing fleet, and consequent savings in loading and unloading costs, fish deterioration losses, and time spent in servicing fishing vessels and handling freezer cargo ships; (b) avoidance of existing and future congestion at the commercial berths, half of which would be permanently employed in fishing activities by 1983 if the project were not undertaken. Under such conditions, the berth occupancy rate would reach 80% which would significantly increase ship-waiting time (chiefly during peak traffic periods), while the permanent presence of fishing equipment at the commercial berths would hamper cargo shore-handling operations and thus increase handling costs and ship turnaround times; (c) improvement in productivity of existing fish plants now operating at half capacity, resulting from increased catches by the local fleet and increased landings from foreign fleets attracted by the improved port operations (and the enforcement of international agreements relating to fishing in Senegalese waters). The above benefits represent the minimum that the project will yield.  - 20 - 64. The benefits accruing from the proposed investment in the project (corresponding to the minimal benefits spelled out in para. 63 above) yield an overall economic return estimated at 23%. If, for purposes of a sensiti- vity test, project costs are assumed to be 15% higher and benefits 20% lower, the project would still yield an economic return of 17%. The economic return for Senegal alone (excluding benefits to the foreign fishing fleets and benefits to foreign-owned fish processing plants transferred abroad) is estimated at 17% which is satisfactory. The economic analysis also indicates that the economic return of the project based on improvement of port opera- tions alone (i.e. excluding benefits from processing plants) is about 16%. 65. The scope for potential benefits is far greater than outlined above. The creation of an integrated fishing port facility will permit a basic expansion of the fishing and fish-processing industries with a host of associated activities such as ice-making, bunkering, ship-chandling, ship-repairing, etc. Quantification of such benefits would require paral- lel assumptions with respect to additional capital investments in vessels, plant, structures, and equipment, which lie well beyond the scope of this project. Finally, there are other benefits which do not lend themselves to quantification in a reliable manner, but which are nonetheless substantial; these include benefits to services and corporations involved in export activ- ities, reduced risk of pollution in the port area, and improved berthing conditions for the fishing fleet in inclement weather. 66. The economic evaluation confirms that the proposed project is justified primarily by the expected general improvements in port operations; it will also provide the means for the expected important development of shore activities. Since the project provides an adequate rate of return even without considering additional traffic to be generated, there is no real risk element involved. However, in order that Senegal may benefit to the maximum from the project and fully utilize the facilities to be provided, the Government has provided assurances that it will apply various incentives to assure the growth and modernization of the Dakar-based fleet, and a continued increase in fish landings for processing by local industries. These incentives re- late mainly to: (i) organization and operations of the various departments involved in the administration, control, and planning of fishing activities; (ii) the exploitation of fish resources; (iii) the effective utilization of credit institutions and agencies involved in promoting fishing; and (iv) vocational training and creation or development of fishery research institutes (Section 4.04 of the Loan Agreement). 67. The Government will discuss with the Bank in mid-1977 its overall investment program in the industrial fishing sector during the next economic development plan period 1977-81. The proposed project provides for execution of a study to establish a plan of action for development of the sector over the next ten years; the study is expected to include a marketing survey of potential exports for Senegalese fish products to major European and African countries..  68. The availability of fish to justify the proposed project construc- tion may be considered a risk, but fish resources off the Senegalese coast are being continuously monitored by competent organizations (para. 25), and the best estimates indicate that existing and potential resources are far more than enough to allow the large annual catch necessary to support a flourish- ing fishing industry without severely depleting the stocks. PART VI: LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 69. The draft Loan Agreement between the Bank and the Republic of Sene- gal, the draft Project Agreement between the Bank and the Port Autonome de Dakar, the Report of the Committee provided in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank, and the text of a Resolution ap- proving the proposed Loan, are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 70. Special conditions of the project are listed in Annex IV, Section III. 71. I am satisfied that the proposed Loan would comply with the Arti- cles of Agreement of the Bank and with the established criteria for Third Window loans. PART VII: RECOMMENDATION 72. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Loan. Robert S. McNamara President by J. Burke Knapp Attachments: Washington, D.C. April 6, 1977   TACLE 3A Page I of J4 pages SENEGAL- SOCIkL INDIC&TOpS DATA SHEET LARiD AREA (THOU BU2) ------------ --------------- 3~~~~~ENEGAL REFERENCE COUNTRIES (1970) FOYAL 196.2 MOST RECENT AGRIC. 1960 1970 ES T IRA rE GHANA IVORY COAST TUNISIA GNP PER CAPITA (USA) 220.0 2O.0 3?O0.300 30. 300 POPULAT1lN AND VITAL STATISTICS P3P'JLATION (M10OVR. MILLION) 3.4 41.4 5.0 8.6 S. 4 5.1 POPULATION DENSITY PEA SQUAR: KA4. IT .0 22. 0 25.0 36.0 16.0 31.0 PER SQ. AN'. AGRICULTURAL LARD * 39.0 * 63.0 30.0 VITAL STAr1sTics CRUDE AlARM RATE PER THOUSAND 48.0 47.6 47.6 49.8 46.1 44.7 CRUDE DEATH RATE PER THOUSAND 27. 5 2 4.4 23.9 24.4 23J.3 16.9 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (/THOU) .. 56.0 150.0 156.0 .. 12.0 LIrE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH CTRS) 35.9 40.0 40.0 41.5 41.0 52.6 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE . 3. 0 3 .0 3.2 3. 1 3. 4 POPULATION G9OWTH RATE (I) TOTAL 2 .1 2.6 2.F 2.6 3 URBAN 3.5 6.0 .. F2 :0 JR8AN POPULATION (I Of TO-TAL) ?2. 7 29. 0 28.) 2. 0 4 0. 0 AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) D) T) 14 YEARS 4z.6i 4 1.2 ..46. 9 42. 5 4 6. 3 1 15 T3 64 YEARS 53 .6 S4. 9 49. 5 5b.8 5 0. 2 65 YE.ARS AND OVER 3.8 3. 9 .. .6 2. T 3. 5 AGE DEPENDE4CY RATIO 0.9 0.8 . 1. 0 0.8 1. 0 E:OONOIC OEPENOENCT RATIO 1.ZL 1. 2~j - . 1. 4 0.9L 1.8 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS (CUMULATIVE. THOU). . . 10. 9 . 112. 2 USERS (I OF MARRIED WOMEN) . .. 2.0 .. 12.0 EKPL3y RENT TUTAL LA8OR FORCE (THOUSAND) 1 300 .0 1600.0 . 3300.0 2600.0 1 300.0 LABOR 'ORCE IN AGRICULTURE (Z) . 7 3. 0 .5 4.0 82.0 57. 0 UNEMPL3YED (Z OF LABOR FORCE) .. .0 .5.0L 6. 0 12.0 INCOME DISTRIBUTION I OF PRIVATE INCOME REC-D BYT HIGH-ST 53 OF HOUSEHOLDS 323:. . .5. .L HIGHEST 20% OF HOUSEHOLDS 62. ... . . ss LOWEST 200 Or HOUSEHOLDS 1.2 Z.. .. A. 2 LIWEST 400 OF HOUSEHOLDS . 4 IL. . .1.4t OISIRIAUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP % OWNE) BT TOP 100 OF OWNERS ..... . . sOi OWNEO BY SMALLEST 101 OWNERS O... .. ..05~ HEALT4A AND NUTRITION PaPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 22100.OLi 1661)0.0 16540.0 12950.0 12140.0 5950.0 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON . 600 26. 000k 28. i 100L POPUJLATION PER HOSPITAL BED 830.0oLd 8YO.0 / 81)0.0 jtbJ 760.0 680.0 1 0.0 a PER CA'1TA SUPPLY OF- CALOAIES (Z OF REQUIREMENTS) 9r.0 97.0 100.0/c 96.0 108.0 86.0 PROTEIN (GRAMS PER DAY) 66 .0 64.0 65 0Li 46 .0 60. 0 5 4. 0 0 WHItCH ANIMAL AND PULSE . 28. 0L ~ 10.0 c la. 0 a 1 4.0 & DE-ATH IATE (/THOU) AGES 1-4 t. .. . ,, . EDJCAT ION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIO PRIMARY SCHOOL .. 38.0 o 43.Ozg Ss. 76.0 107.0 SECOWOARY SCHOOL . 15.0. 9.0 La 0. 92. TEARS OF SCHOOLING PROVIDED 0 4 2 0 (FIRST AND SECOND LEVEL) 13 .0 13.0 1 3.0 15.0 1 3. 0 13. 0 VOCATIONAL ENROLLMENT (0 OF SECONDARY) .. .0 23.00 7. 54.0 ADULT LITERACY RATE (I) .. 10. 0 10 a25. 20. PERSONS PER ROOM (AVERAGE) 1 . 5 lae . .. 2.T OCCUPIED DWELL1NGS WItHOUT PIPEC WATER (Z) i. .04 ACCFSS TO ELECTRICITY 1. z. .. .. 00 (I OF ALL DWELLINGS) 96 . 0 . 24.0 / RURAL OWELLINGS CONNECTED TO ELECTRICITY (2) C04SJRPTION RADIO iECEIVERS (PER THOU POP) 4P.0 69.0 67.0 78.0 17.0 77.0 PASSENGER CARS (PER THOU POP) 6.0 9. 0 9 .0 5.0 10. 0 1 3.0 ELECTRICITY (KWH/YR PER CAP) 41 .0 703.0 92.0 338. 0 120.0 155. 0 NEWSPRINT (KG/YR PER CAP) 0.0I 0.1I 0.1I 0. 4 0.2 0. I SEE NOTES AND OEFINTTIONS ON REvERSE  ANiPEX I Page 2 of 4 pagas Un1... oth.-~ise noted, dots 'for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961, for 1970 bet-een 1960 and 1970, and for Moat R.eet gEtmiate between 1973 sod 1973. - Tun.isi has bean selected as an objective coutry bec.use of see smilarity of its econo my with the Senegal... asc.onins, including favorable prospects for the development of fiaharies end touris.. SENEGAL 1960 Ia Ratio of population under 15 and 65 and over to total labor forces lb Population; /c 1963; /d 1962, go.vernmet hospital eatabliahmsemt.; /s Total, urban and rural; If 19355 dota are for actoune of Debar only end refer to Zurope4n-type dwslLnge; /a Inside only. 1970 Is Ratio of population .nder 15 aed 63 end over to total labor farce; /b Governmsent hoapital e.t.bliaixaents; 771 196.4-66; /d Unadjus ted /s Lowr secondary level. MOST RECENT iSTI)IATE, /a 1972; /b fovertesnt hospital est.bliishenta; /c 1969-71 average; /d 1971. OHMAC 1970 /a Ragisnared only; /b Registered, not all practicing in the country; j 1966-68; /d 6-15 and lb-2i yasre of aeg respectively. IVORY COAST 1970 / D ue to isssigration, growth rats is higher than rate of ntutral increase /b 1965-70; Ic Ratio of population under 15 and 65 end over to total labor force; /d Covernmnt only; I 1964-66; If 12-i8 years of age. TNINS9A 1970 / 1956-66; /b 1966; /c Ratio of population under 15 and 65 and ove to total labor force; /d Incoee racn- pi.nte; /s. Covering 4 .5milion bectarom of private land. socluding 0.8 million hectaras in public ownrship, and 2.1 million hectares of collective land; /f Personnel in government services only; /A G-srnsan.t hospit.,al etablishments only; /b 1964-66; Ti Registered only; i. OWe to emigration, growth rate is lower than rate of natural increase. RS, August 10, 1976 DEFINITIOSR OP SOCIAL ISNDICATMRR Land Area (thou ho2) Ppuplation nr nursin person - Population divid.d by number of practi- Total- Total eurfaco urns coprising land urea und inland watoer. cing male and female graduate nuroses, "trained" or --certified" Agric M..un r ...nt ..s.tijuaof agricultur alrersaeod temporrily or nurnos, and auxiliary praocnnt1 with training or 01pcr iuncn per.nanntly for crops, pastures, narket 4 bitchen gardens or to lits Popultion par hoo,pita1 bed - Population divided by nmber of hospital Sallow. beds avilable in public and Private general and specialloed hospital and rehabilitatston centors; occludes nursing homes and establishments GNP par canita (US55) - GNP per topics estimates at current macbet prices, for custodial and pr-evntive care. c-1cultod by same convorsion mothod as World Banb Atlas (1973-75 basis); Per capita supply ofclro (7. of renuiromonts) - Computed from 1960, 1970 and 1975 duts. energy equivalent of net food supplies available in country par capita per day; available supplies comprise do..estic production, imports less Poowulatio,,n an vitaI ntatietic exports, and changes.In stock; net supplies occlude animal feed. seeds, P. I,tom o _-v. nilion - As. of 1.uy first: if not available, qanities.aced In fod peoce...ing and loec i distributtion; require- -average of two nmd-yor eatinates; 1960, 1970 and 1975 data..nente were ostineted by PAO based on Physiological nee ds for noma ac.tivity and healthu considering enyiroomenta1 temperature, body .eights, Pouato tdniy - pr -eur. kn Mid-year population per square kilo- ageand so, distributions of populstion, and allowing 107. for waste Population density - nor sousr. bn oftsrin. Cad -Coputed as above for Par -ay=a spply of protein (aos or o- - Protein content of per agiutrlelnd only, capita net supply of food por day; net supply of food.is defined as above; requir-oeto for all -ontri.o established by SOD cSnonoi Vital statlatics ie...arch Services provide for a minimum allowance of 60 grams of Crude birth rate per th.ousnd, average - Annual live births per thousan.dtotal protein par day, and 20 gross of animal and pulse protein, of of nid_year popula'tion; ton-yeur rilthuetic arge ending in 1960 and which 15 gross should be unima1 protoin; thoae standards are lower 1970, and five-year average ending in 1975 for most rec..ntesnao then chuee of 75 gross of total protein and 23 gras of animal Iprotein Crcd death rate per thoueand. nurueAnul deathe par thousan.d of mid- as an average for the world, proposed by PAl in the Third Wo rld Pond yer pplain;tn-er thsic average eningtin 1960 end 1970 and Survey. fiv-yer aerae eding in i97h for most rcnt estimate. Per capita protei n ooolY iron animal and p.l.e - Protein supply of food Infant -otailty rat /thou) - Annual deaths of infants ne n erderndfo nml n uesin gross per day. ofaepr thouad live birtha, Death rate (/thou) aces 1-4 - A.nnai deaths par thousand in age group Life one-tancy-at birth (yr.) - Average number of years of life revels- 1- er,t hlrni hnage group, suggontod as an indi-ntor of ing at birth; usually flo_-year over aseu endin insI1960. 1970 and malnutrition. 1975for developi ng c..unriree Dro.. rnor.d-ction rate - A-erg number of line d-ughtere a women will Education hear,in her normal reprocductive period if she n.aptientes present age- Adluoate.dte-cl1neot ratio - primary school - Enrollment of all ages as specific fertility rates; usually five-year averages ending in 1960, percntaeof primary school-age population; includes children aged 1970 and 19 75 for devoloping countries. 6-11 years but adjusted for different lengths of primary education; Population -roth rats %(')-tota - Conpound annual groth rates of mid- for contries with universal educa.tion, enrollment no y roceed 1007. year population for156, 1960-70 and 19 70-_75 oince ...e pupils are below or above the official school age. Population growth rate (7.) - urban - Computed like growth rate of total Adjus.ted.enrollme,nt ratio -saecondar school - Computed as above; population; different definitions of urban sreao nay affect compara- asoodary education requires atleast.four.years of approved primary hiityof dat amon contries instruction; provie geerl vctional or teacher,traini ng Urbn opuaton 7.of otl) Rtio of urban to total population; intutosfor pupils. of 12'to'17 Yeaso age corsodenc different definitiona of urban areas nay affect cops-ability of data courses are g,one,rrelly Oc,cluded.t aogcountries Years of shoing prvdd (fIrs and second ievels) -Total years ci AA, t1111r,lpr,nt)- Children 0-14 years), working-age (15-64 years) ochooling; at secondary level, vocational instruction eay be par- and retired (65 Ysre andpoor ) as parcantoesn of eid-year population. tie11y or completely eldd. Aoo dependency rati -ltoofpplto une 15ad6adevro Voca.tional enrollment (7. f secondary) - Vocational inetitution. thoee of egos 15 through 64. Inc lude technical, industrial or other programs whichioperate Econo.ic dependency ratio - Ratio of population under 15 end 65 end over independently or as doeprtments of secondary in tit tione. to the labor force in ae. group of 15-64 yeare.Adult literacy rate (7.) - Literate aduta (abl e to reed and write) aso ynl:cly olann ino ... tcnra cmuaiv,thou) - Cumultive nubor of percentage of total adult population aged 15 yours and ooer. accetors of birth-controlI devicen under aunpicos of nationsl_faily planing program since in.ptio.nRusn Family Yplanning .. usrs (2 of married wmn Per-ntaRee of married Prospar room (urban) - Avoragv numbor of persons per rone in women of child-beaning age (1!; yearn) who use birth-control devices occupied conventional dwellings in urban areas; dwellings exclude to ~almarried woe 0en g roup. oon-permeont structureg aed un ccupied parts. Occupied doel1iso without piped watr(7) - Occup Ied nonvestional Enpl.y-ent dwellings in urban and rural -arane itheut in-ide or outsIdepiped Total labor force (thousa.nd) - Econo.icaily active persona, including water facilities as percentaga of all occ.upiead dwellings. arned forces an.d unemployed hut excluding,housewives, students, etc.; Acces to electricity (7. of all dwelling.) - Conventional dwellings deflniction Ivrious cetesare net coparable, with electricity ie living quarters as percent of total dwellings in Labor force in Ra i-ltture (7. - Agricu1tnra1 labor f0rce.(ie faming, urban and rural areas. forustry, huntIng end filabiog) as pretg of total labor force. Rural d.ellinae connected to el1-tricitv (7. - Computed aso above for inm vd(7. of labor force) Un_spioYd are usuly defined as rural dwellings only. persons who- are abeand willing to toan ijob, out of a job on a given day, romaind out of a job, and sebnog work for a specified Cnsmtion minium erio no oncedig on wek; nay not he comparable between Radio reevr prto o)-Altypes of rcIvers for radio broad- coun tries doe to dif ferent deinitions of un_ployed and source of casts to general public per thouand of population; exc ludes data, e.g., employment office statistics, eanpie norveys, compulsory unlicensed raeievore in countries and in years oboe -egltretion of unosploynent inaurance. radio sets was in effect; data for recent years may not be comparable sic at c.ontriss abolished lice,nsig IncmeDitrioton- Percentage of private income (both in c.ah and P.aaomas cr (prthou con) - Pasoangs aecmrl onrcr kind) received by richest 57., richest 207., poorest 207., and Poorest aesting lees than eight persona; eacludes ambulances, hearses an1d 407. of ho....ho ds. military vhbIcle.. Electricity (boh/yr Per cap) - Annuel consumption of Industrial, con- Distribution of land ownerehip - Percentages of land owned by wealthiest mercial,,.public and private elsectricity in kilowatt bour. per capita; 107. and poorest 107. of land overs. generally based on production data, without allowance for lossin gride ut alowingfor imports and exports of el ectricity. Health_and____tri___ Heo-orint (kg/yr pe ca)- Per capita annual consuption in kilogramsu Population per physician _Population divided by nuber of practicing estimated from domestic production plus net importe of newsprint. physicians qualified froe a medical achool at ..iver.ity level.  AN'NEX I ECONOI~~~C DEVEIJ)P~~fr DATA ~Page 3 of 4 Pages (TmouMs inmillin f . dollara; Actual Saime 1j,j 19 70 19 73 19 75 19 70 19~ 751930 19)73 _1i4 5 19 80 L A%0IL~ 19 80 NATTONA.L ACCOUNTS Annul dt t 197 Prices & Exchange Rate.; Average Annual- Growth Rates As percent of GDY 1. Giross Domestic Product 551 7W 950J4 1035. tIT -0.3 5.7 .3 99.7 10. 172 2. Gains from Terms of Trade_(+) 2.8 - 17.0 639 57. -1.8 0. -05 -. 3. Gross D~omestic Incom (1+ 9 .9 5:5 978.3 1129.9 -1.1 6.6 3.010. 100 100 4. Import (inck. NSF) 306.5 301.3 308.6 297.4 324.5 357.3 -0.5 - 0.7 3.7 34.5 30.5 31.6 5 . Exports "(import capacity) 262.0 215.4 121 267.3 276.4 29] . -6.2 IC0. 6 1.7 29. 274 25.8 6. Resource GaP (4 - 5) 44.5 83.1 8.3 30.1 48.1 66.o 5.0 3.1 5.8 7. Consumption Expenditures 815.0 807.9 843.9 862.4 884.2 lo011. 4 -0.3 3.3 3.2 91.8 88.4 89.5 A. Investment (incl. stocks) 117.5 135.0 i45.8 113.3 1.42.2 184.5 4.8 3.0 5.2 13.2 14.7 16.3 0. Domestic Savings (8-6) 72.8 51.6 137.5 113.2 94.1 118.5 -12.1 48.3 0.9 8.2 11.6 10.5 10. Rational Savings 93.0 71.1 i46.6 119.6 93.5 120.2 -9.4 29.6 0.1 10.5 12.3 10.6 MERCHANDJISE TRADE Annual Data at Current Prices As Percent of Total. Tmports Capital goods 43.6 77.3 90.6 108.7 140 205 21.0 i8.6 13.6 22.5 18.7 21.3 Intermediate goods (=L.fuels) 41.1 67.7 100.3 158.8 131 210 18.1 56.3 5.7 21.2 27.3 21.8 F'uels and related materials 10.9 23.6 64.8 69.1 76 123 29.5 74.0 12.2 5.6 11.9 12.8 (mostly crude oil) Cosmtion goods 91 4 210.7 244.8 305 424 24.9 13.1 i1.6 50. 4;1 1 4 Total March. Imports (cif) 193.9 3 03 ~ ~ ? 5 6 7 ~ 1. 100.0 100.0 100.0 Exports Oruomdnuts 73.6 68.6 141.3 188.2 248 230 -2.3 66.0 4.1 48.5 38.6 42.1 Phosphate 119 22.2 103.7 103.7 69 84 23.2 116.0 -4.1 7.8 21.3 15.5 petroleum products 4.2 11.4 22.1 32.1 13 10 39.7 68.5 -21.3 2.8 6.6 .1.8 Other 62.2 46 14 9.9 16. .1153 ?9.1 15.0 31.3 6.1 40.9 ) l 40.3 Total March. Excports (fob) t5Tg 19~6f 7 0 I(87U 47~ 4 57.5 2.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 Tourism and Border' Trade 9. Merchandise Trade Indices Average 1971 100 (in USe) Export Price Index 91.6 121.5 221.3 183.7 159.8 195 5 Import Price Index 90.5 128.7 194.3 185.5 l32:? 24. Terma of Trade Index 101.2 94.3 113.9 99.0 2 78.4 Exports Volume Index 135.9 103.9 122.4 1.55.4 191.6 202.3 VAUJE ADDED BY SEC'TOR (at f.c.) Annual Da,ta_atII~l Prices and Exchange Rates Average Annual Growth Rates As Percent of Total Agriculture 222.7 1,87.0 227.1 267.1 291.0 328.0 -5.7 19.5 4.2 28.5 30.3 O9.8 Industry and Mining 173.3 175.1 199.3 212.2 230.0 305.3 0.4 10.0 7.5 22 0 77 Service )8, ',.s84- 4.) In.42 jk6I.- 1.4 0.2 3.04. 3L 5 Total 781.5 764.5 811.1 882.9 9141.5 1101.2 -0.7 7.4 4.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 PUBLIC FINANCE Fiscal Year (Jl /Jm O' in billions of current CPA Francs As Percent of GDP (Central Goverrnment) 1C7/3 17/4 17/75 19'757 1976/77 1980/81 727 to7/57/j~98 173 17 95 Current Receipts 55.1 55.'. 7"1.3 90.( 89 1~49520.3 19.9 19.2 18. ~Tnt i~tures 50.8 44%7 67.5 796 83 15.3 10.5 18.4 17.5 16.8 17.0 other Pablic Sector 2.4 7.2 0.3 5.5 5 7 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 Public Sector Investment 15.0 20.4 26.6 32.7 38 60 33.1 14.5 6.5 7.0 6.8 8.3 CURRENT EXCPENDITUTRE DETAILS (Central GvtI.) Actuials Eat. DETAIL ON US______ million___ (As Total Current Exend.) Ls97/7 L174/5 1,57 PUBLIC SECTOR Thir Pla 5 of TotaLl Education and sports 21.9 22.4 22.9 22.1 21.9 INVESTMENT PROGRAM ( 19 9/o -172 fl3 ) Other Social Services (Health) 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.2 7.2 Social Sectors 24.3 11.3 Agriculture 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.6 Agriculture6.42. Other Economic Selyces 7.9 7.5 7.7 6.9 6.9 Inldustry and Mining . 1 General Services2. 4o.4 39.1 38.9 3891 40 6 Water Supply 24.8 11.5 Other 15.6 17.2 18.9 20.4 18.8 Transport and communications 45.4 21.1 Total Current Expenditures I- - - - - Other 43.1 20.0 10. 00.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Tot-al Expenditures 215.3 100.0 SELECTED INDICATORS 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975 FINANCING (Calculated f'rom 3-year averaged data) 1965 1970 1975 10- Average ICOR =ti 10. 6 -6.9 . Public Gector Savings 51.9 214.1 Import Elasticity . .. 0.h 0.3 Grants anaS Official Loans 125.753 Marginal Domestic Savings Rate . 0.5 0.0 Loans fromPrivate Sources 3- 7 Marginial National Savings Rate . . 0.3 o.o Total Financing 215.3 100.0 LABOR FORCE AN Total Labor Force value Added Per Worker (19 71 Prices &Exc. Rates) OUTPUT PER WORKER In Millions % of Total~: in U.S.Dollars Percent or Avertge D-Li ~~19 71 ill 2. Agriculture 0.8 70 238.8 36.6 Industry 0.1 8 1779.6 273.0 Service 0.3 22 1Y213 Total. 1.2 100 65s1.8 100.0 not applicable nil1 or negligible T/Registered trade only not available ..less than half the 2/ Border madea is not known separately, but is Included in the adjustments mAde on the smallest unit shown registered trade at the balAnce of payments. ~/Including General Administration, Defense, Jusstice and Police. ~/including investments financed under foreign aid.  Peg. 4 of 4 Pages B 1E og PITS,2