India - Maharashtra Irrigation Project

FILE COPY Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2036-IN REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE MAHARASHTRA IRRIGATION PROJECT June 30, 1.977 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of June 21, 1977) Rs 1.00 Paise 100 US$1.00 Rs 8.80 Rs 1.00 US$0.1136 Rs 1 million US$113,600 (Since September 24, 1975 the Rupee has been officially valued relative to a "basket" of currencies. As these currencies are now floating, the US Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions in the Appraisal Report were made at US$1 to Rs 9.00.) FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ARDC - Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation CB - Commercial Bank GOI - Government of India GOM - Government of Maharashtra ICB - International Competitive Bidding SLDB - State Land Development Bank  IOR OMCL41 USE ONLY INDIA MAHARASHTRA IRRIGATION PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiaries: State of Maharashtra for irrigation works and roads; Agri- cultural Refinance and Development Corporation for re- financing on-farm development loans made to farmers by the State Land Development Bank and commercial banks. Amount: US$70 million. Terms: Standard Relending Terms: (a) India to Maharashtra: As part of Central Assistance for development projects on terms and conditions applicable at the time; (b) India to the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC): At interest rate of not less than 6.75% and 7.25% per annum (with 0.25% per annum rebate for prompt repayment) for refinancing loans, with terms of 9 and 15 years respectively; (c) ARDC to the State Land Development Bank (SLDB) and to commercial banks: Annual interest of not less than 7.5% with maturities according to maturities of loans to be refinanced; (d) SLDB and commercial banks to farmers: Repayable over 9 years, after 2 years of grace, at 10.5% per annum interest for secured loans. Prolect Description: The purpose of the project is to complete the on-going construction that can be completed within about four years, of irrigation infrastructure in the Jayakwadi Irrigation System on the upper Godavari river, to modernize part of the infrastructure in the adjacent Purna Irrigation System, and to provide the next stage (covering about four years) of command area development in Jayakwadi. The This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - project will alleviate food shortages, improve farmer income in the project area, and provide additional employment opportunities. The project consists of: (a) completion of the Jayakwadi Left Bank Canal (LBC) to km 208 and of the Right Bank Canal (RBC) to km 132; (b) completion of the Jayakwadi irrigation distribution and drainage canal network for about 95,000 hectares, and lining of all canals; (c) rehabilitation of irrigation distribution works and provision of drainage on about 30,000 hectares of the Purna command area; (d) command area development including land grading and shaping on about 45,000 hectares of Jayakwadi, a road program covering 40 km of district and 345 km of village link roads, and strengthening of extension services; (e) construction of eleven market centers; (f) a program to monitor the efficiency of the irrigation system and to evaluate project benefits; (g) procurement of vehicles and equipment for project management and O&M; and (h) assistance to GOM for future project preparation.  Estimated Cost: (US$ million) Local Foreign Total Jayakwadi Irrigation Network 46.1 18.9 65.0 Equipment for Operation & Maintenance 0.9 1.3 2.2 Lining of Jayakwadi Distri- butaries and Minors 5.5 1.7 7.2 Jayakwadi CAD 8.7 1.9 10.6 Monitoring and Evaluation 0.8 1.0 1.8 Purna Modernization 2.9 1.0 3.9 Road Program 5.3 1.0 6.3 Extension Services 1.5 0.2 1.7 Market Center Construction 0.3 0.1 0.4 GOM Project Preparation 0.2 - 0.2 Base Cost: 72.2 27.1 99.3 Physical Contingencies 8.8 3.3 12.1 Price Escalation 21.1 7.5 28.6 Total Project Cost: 102.1 37.9 140.0 Financing Plan: (US$ million) Local Foreign Total IDA 32.1 37.9 70.0 Local Financing: GOM 65.7 - 65.7 ARDC, SLDB & CBs 4.3 - 4.3 102.1 37.9 140.0 Estimated Disbursements: (US$ million) FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 FY82 FY83 Annual: 2 10 16 17 17 8 Cumulative: 2 12 28 45 62 70 Rate of Return: Between 13% and 19%, depending on project component (between 10% and 12% if sunk cost are included); overall economic rate of return: 16.8%. Consulting Services: 8 man-months of engineering consulting services in the framework of project monitoring for assistance in setting up measuring equipment and in processing and evaluating measuring results. Appraisal Report: No. 1486a-IN dated June 30, 1977.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE MAHARASHTRA IRRIGATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to India in an amount equivalent to US$70 million on standard IDA terms to help finance construction and rehabilitation of irriga- tion works and command area development in the Jayakwadi and Purna irrigation systems of Maharashtra. The proceeds of the credit - except for part of on- farm development works (US$5.5 million) - would be channelled to the Govern- ment of Maharastra in accordance with GOI's standard terms and arrangements for the financing of State development projects. For on-farm development works, GOI would relend US$5.5 million of the credit to the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) for 9 and 15 years at not less than 6.75% and 7.25% per annum, respectively. ARDC would in turn on-lend the funds to the State Land Development Bank (SLDB) and participating commercial banks in the project area at annual interest of not less than 7.5%. SLDB and the commercial banks would relend the funds to farmers with repayment periods of 11 years, including 2 years of grace, at 10-1/2% annual interest. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (1529-IN dated April 25, 1977), was distributed to the Executive Directors on May 3, 1977. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is exceptional among the Bank Group's member countries for its size and diversity; the country is divided into more than 20 States with a population of some 630 million speaking over 60 languages. Since Independ- ence the trend in growth of GNP has been about 3.5% per annum, or a little over 1% per annum in per capita terms, while over the five years 1971/72 - 1975/76 it fell to as low as 2.5% per annum, in spite of the record harvest of 1975/76. This unsatisfactory performance is in part the result of the low availability of investable resources: while India's domestic savings effort compares well with other countries at the same average income levels, the rate has very rarely exceeded 17% of GNP; similarly, the net transfer of resources from abroad has never been above 3% of GNP, and fell to as little as 0.8% between 1969/70 and 1973/74. The investment rate puts India in the lower third of all developing countries. More significant perhaps is the fact that in spite of a marked rise in the investment rate from about 10% in the early 1/ Parts I and II of this report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report for the Bombay High Offshore Development Project (Report No. P-2062-IN, dated June 20, 1977).  - 2 - 1950's to about 18% over the past fifteen years, the trend in GNP growth has remained about the same. This indicates a marked decline in the efficiency of capital use, as a result of increasing capacity underutilization, long project gestation, and increased emphasis on relatively capital intensive projects and sectors. 4. Since Independence the growth of the socio-economic infrastructure (transport, education, health services, etc.) has been impressive, but has often been achieved at high cost and has yielded results of variable quality. Many industrial and agricultural investment schemes have been highly successful, but others have taken excessively long to be completed and have operated well below full capacity. In some regions of the country, growth and structural change have been rapid and compare favorably with developments in many other parts of the world; in other regions there has been stagnation, and in some, decline. Although national income has increased in most years, there has been no rise in the living standards of the vast mass of rural and urban poor, conservatively estimated at 200 million people with per capita incomes of US$70 per annum (converted at the official exchange rate) and US$250 on a purchasing power parity basis. 5. The structure of the economy has been slow to change. Agriculture remains the dominant sector, with its share of national product declining only gradually from about 50% to 42% over the last twenty years. The share of manufacturing industry has increased only slowly and, since the late 1960s, has remained approximately constant at about 16%. There has, however, been a shift in the composition of manufacturing production, with consumer, inter- mediate, and capital goods now contributing about one third each, compared with an overwhelming preponderance of consumer goods 25 years ago. Recent Trends 6. In March, 1977, a party other than Congress formed a Government for the first time since Independence. The state of the economy was not a promi- nent election issue; in fact the economy was generally stronger than at any time in the last six years. Although the growth of GDP in 1976/77 is not expected to have exceeded 2%, this was on top of the very good growth of 8.8% in 1975/76. Agricultural production is expected to have fallen by about 3%, but only because of the return to a more normal harvest of 110-114 million tons of foodgrains after the record 121 million tons of the previous year. Industrial growth was around 10% in 1976/77, which is significantly above the rates achieved in the late 1960's and early 1970's. Exports continued their bright performance, rising by 25% in nominal terms. The overall resource position, with record foreign exchange and foodgrain reserves, is exception- ally strong, and gives the Government considerable room for maneuver. 7. In agriculture the bumper crop of 1975/76 was largely due to remarkably good weather conditions; the good crop in 1976/77 - a foodgrain harvest in the region of 110 million tons would be the second largest on record - was produced under generally normal weather. A conspicuous change was the increase in fertilizer use, which rose by more than 20% over 1975/76,  - 3 - following marked declines in fertilizer prices. Industrial production bene- fited from fewer labor disputes, fuller utilization of installed capacity in both private and public sectors, a more liberal import policy, relatively good power availability, and increased demand because of higher consumer incomes, expanded exports and higher public expenditures. However, whole- sale prices which had fallen 14% from September 1974 through March 1976, rose 11% from the end of March to December 1976. This upsurge may be a new inflationary trend or merely a. correction of the previous sharp decline in the relative prices of a range of agricultural commodities. 8. The balance of payments situation has improved dramatically since the 1973-1975 period. In 1975/76 the trade deficit was $1,530 million, which was more than covered by US$1,560 million in net aid, US$205 million in net purchases of currency from the IMF, and US$559 million in net miscellaneous capital and invisibles (mostly private remittances); indeed, this large aggregate net resource inflow led to a US$794 million increase in foreign exchange reserves, to a level of almost US$2.2 billion. In 1976/77, the trade deficit is estimated to have fallen by US$1,130 million, due to a rise of US$1,145 million in exports. The decreased trade deficit, along with a further increase in the net inflow of miscellaneous capital and invisibles from abroad of US$470 million, more than offset the fall of US$350 million in net aid and the substantial repurchases of currency from the IMF, and allowed a US$1.5 billion addition to reserves, which reached a level of US$3.65 billion at the end of March 1977. Development Prospects 9. The favorable economic situation gives the Government the opportun- ity to address the longer-term constraints on growth. The basic task is to raise the overall rate of growth from its historic range of 3% to 4%. In the long run this will require raising more resources for investment. But it will also be important to achieve significantly better utilization of avail- able resources, partly through an immediate boost to industrial demand. 10. In agriculture, the basic problem remains that, despite the record foodgrain crop in 1975/76 and the good crop in 1976/77, the long-term growth rate of foodgrain production has been unacceptably low, at about 2.5% per annum over the last seventeen years, and only 2% in the last ten. This has meant that only in good years has there been any margin of production to cater to per capita growth in food consumption, and in normal years it has been necessary to import food. There is considerable scope for stepping up growth both by increasing the use of inputs and by raising the productivity of existing capacity. Three promising developments in regard to the first are the sharply higher outlays on irrigation in the Fifth Plan Period along with a renewed determination to complete projects expeditiously; the indica- tions that private investment in tubewells is picking up again after a slow- down in the early 1970's; and the recent recovery of fertilizer demand. With  regard to more productive use of existing capacity, there is increased aware- ness in the Government that the benefits of irrigation projects can be much increased not only through command area development but also through more efficient design and operation of major surface irrigation infrastructure. Also, hopes have been generated for increasing productivity on both irrigated and rainfed farms through a reorganized and improved extension and research system, which has been recently introduced in several States in northern and eastern India. 11. A strong effort to raise agricultural growth is essential, not only to meet food requirements, but also because of the pervasive influence of agriculture on the levels of activity in other sectors of the economy. This effort must also be so structured as to increase the incomes of small and marginal farmers, in order to increase production since they operate 25% of the cultivated land and account for somewhat more than 25% of production, and for welfare reasons, since they make up about 70% of rural population and constitute the majority of those living below the poverty level. 12. The industrial sector is poised for rapid growth, as the most serious constraints on the supply side have been removed by the improved situation with respect to power, coal and imported raw materials and components. There has been a progressive liberalization of controls and the 1976/77 Central Budget announced a reduction of some taxes on private industry. In many cases management of public enterprises has improved, as is reflected in their markedly higher production and profitability as a group. In the medium term it is the demand for industrial output that will determine industrial growth. In certain industries, export demand will provide a strong pull on production; this is true, for example, for iron and steel, certain chemicals, some electrical equipment, processed agricultural products, and vehicles. But the impact of increased exports on overall industrial demand will grow only slowly given the current low share of exports in sales. If the higher growth and productivity in agriculture discussed earlier were to materialize, it would provide a significant stimulus to industry. It is difficult to specify the linkages explicitly; but because of the large share that agri- culture holds in GNP, the coefficients do not have to be large for agricul- tural growth and the concomitant growth in demand for industrially produced inputs and mass consumption goods to boost overall industrial demand signi- ficantly. A higher public deficit and increased public investments are the instruments most directly under Government control, and also those that can increase demand for industrial products most immediately. The interim budget of the new Government moves strongly in this direction with a 240% increase in the planned budget deficit over 1976/77. 13. Improvement in the supply of energy augurs well for India's ability to meet the needs of a more rapidly growing economy. Organization- al and transportation problems in the coal industry have largely been over- come, production is sufficient to meet demand, stocks are comfortable, and the industry has good prospects for meeting both domestic and export demand. Supply of electricity continues to be a concern, because of the vulnerability of hydro power to variations in the monsoon and the continued existence of  - 5 - local shortages, even when the overall power situation is satisfactory. But several institutional improvements promise to reduce the future incidence of shortages: underutilization of capacity has been virtually eliminated in well-established power stations; progress has been made in the organized exchange of power between states thus relieving localized power shortages; and the problems of slow implementation of power investment due to delayed delivery of materials and equipment have virtually disappeared. In addition, the delays caused by the inability of State Electricity Boards to finance projects expeditiously have been eased by their improved financial position following tariff increases, and by increased Plan outlays by the Central Government. The medium term prospects for the oil and gas sector have been further improved by major new finds of oil and gas near the large offshore Bombay High field. Crude oil from Bombay High was brought to shore for the first time in May 1976; production reached an annual rate of 2 million tons by March 1977, and will rise to a level of 12-13 million tons by 1984/85. Although India will continue to import crude at or somewhat above the current level, much of the foreign exchange burden of rapidly rising imports will be avoided by the development of these resources. Prospects are also bright for further discoveries offshore, given the current high level of exploration activity. 14. Underlying all other development issues is that of population. Al- though India's population growth rate of a little over 2% is not high in com- parison with most LDCs, the size of the absolute increment - 13 million annually - is daunting. It appears, however, that population growth may have passed its peak in the 1960's, and it is expected to continue to slow down, both because the birth rate will continue to decline and because the death rate will not fall as steeply as in the past. With a sustained family planning effort, it should be possible to lower the population growth rate to 1.1% per annum by the end of the century. Our "best guess" projection of India's population by 2000 is 880 million. Many of the benefits of family planning policy will only be felt beyond the turn of the century, but the decline in fertility will bring about an early change in the age structure of the popu- lation. The school age group will grow more slowly or not at all after 1981 thereby reducing the pressures on the primary and secondary education system. The labor force, however, will continue to grow at a fast rate until the end of the century. 15. India's balance of payments position should be comfortable for the next few years. The combination of past global inflation and increased ex- ports have reduced the proportion of export earnings needed for debt service from 30% in 1970/71 to 16% in 1976/77. The ratio is not likely to rise above this level in the next few years. Given continuing favorable policies, the volume of exports should continue to grow by 7% to 10% annually in the near future; and import needs for fertilizer, POL and foodgrains will continue to require a diminishing proportion of available foreign exchange. The large inflow of private remittances shows no immediate signs of declining and should continue to bolster the foreign exchange position in the medium term. Imports,  - 6 - including a variety of capital goods, have already been liberalized signifi- cantly. Increased public investment and a revival of the domestic economy is likely to generate substantial additional import demand. However, this should be quite manageable, given the currently comfortable foreign exchange position, bright export prospects, and continuation of the current real level of net aid. The present situation presents an opportunity to raise the level of investment and, consequently, reach a more satisfactory level of long term growth. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 16. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 50 loans and 85 development credits to India totalling US$1,762 million and US$4,338 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$816 million has been repaid, and US$1,432 million was still undisbursed as of May 31, 1977. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of May 31, 1977, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 17. Since 1957, IFC has made 14 commitments in India totalling US$58.4 million, of which US$13.0 million has been repaid, US$7.6 million sold and US$6.9 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$30.9 million, US$24.4 mil- lion represents loans and US$6.5 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of May 31, 1977, is also included in Annex II (page 2). 18. In recent years, the emphasis of Bank Group lending has been on agriculture. The Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit opera- tions. Major irrigation, marketing, seed development, and dairying are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterprises. IDA financing of industrial raw materials and components for selected priority sectors has been instrumental in facilitating better capac- ity utilization in industry. The Bank Group has also been active in support- ing infrastructure development for power, telecommunications, and railways. Family planning, education, water supply development, and urban investments have also received Bank Group support in recent years. 19. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, industry, power, urban development and water supply remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs such as credit for on-farm investments, command area development of existing irrigation schemes, intensification and streamlining of extension systems, and seed production form an important aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to projects benefitting small farmers.  - 7 - Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, and urban development also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infrastructure and industrial investments will focus on agriculture-, export- and energy-related projects. 20. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic re- ports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in large part to the response of the aid community, India has successfully adjusted to the changed world price situation. However, the basic need for readily usable foreign exchange assistance, to augment domestic resources, assure effective utilization of existing capacity, stimulate investment and acceler- ate economic growth, remains. As in the past, Bank Group assistance for projects in India should include, as appropriate, the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity of the domestic capital goods industry. The import component of projects tends to be especially low in such high-priority areas as agriculture, educatioh, and family planning. For the Bank Group to be able to make an appropriate contribution to the financing of projects in these sectors, it is important to cover a proportion of local expenditures. 21. It is clear from the review of the Indian economy that as much as possible of India's external capital requirements should be provided on con- cessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support, and some Bank lending to India, for which the country is creditworthy, is appropriate. As of May 31, 1977, outstanding loans to India totaled US$973 million, of which US$494 million remained to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstanding of US$479 million. 22. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with an estimated 58%, 24% and 29%, respectively, in 1975/76. On March 31, 1976, India's outstanding and disbursed external public debt was US$13.1 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was 25%. The Bank Group's share is expected to remain around this level in the future. Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1975/76, about 15% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group. PART III - AGRICULTURE AND IRRIGATION IN INDIA General 23. Agriculture is the most important sector in India; it engages 70% of the labor force, has recently contributed about 42% of national product  and accounts for a major share of exports. Consequently, investments in agriculture have been given priority by GOI and the State Governments, espe- cially since the mid-1960s, and deserve continued emphasis in the future. 24. Since independence, the overall growth rate of agricultural produc- tion has averaged about 3% per annum. This low overall rate of growth in the agricultural sector obscures considerable variations over shorter periods of time, between crops, and between regions. The overall rate has been very much affected by the serious droughts in 1965 and 1966 and again in 1972 and 1974. At the same time, the success of high yielding varieties of wheat led to in- creases in wheat production of about 20% p.a. between 1967 and 1971. Other foodgrain crops, notably rice, have not enjoyed anything like the same success, as the introduction of high yielding varieties has encountered difficulties arising from local climatic and ecological conditions. The effects of the green revolution, which primarily affected wheat, have been concentrated in northwestern India, largely on account of the availability of irrigation in that area. 25. Despite the progress made in many aspects of food production, India's agriculture remains heavily dependent upon the weather. A major factor in reducing this dependence will be the rehabilitation and expansion of irrigation and the more effective use of existing investment in irriga- tion facilities. The Government is also placing emphasis on the improved supply of inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, agricultural credit, and extension services. Irrigation 26. Over the first half of the twentieth century, the area under irri- gation in India increased by only about 1% p.a. to reach slightly more than 20 million hectares in 1950/51, or about one-seventh of India's cultivated land. About half of the irrigated area was served by major and medium irrigation works. 27. Irrigation has received increased attention since independence, and substantial resources were devoted to it throughout the four Five-Year Plans. The area covered by major and medium surface systems and by groundwater devel- opment more than doubled to 19.6 million hectares and 16.0 million hectares, respectively, compared with an estimated ultimate potential for irrigation of 57 million hectares from major and medium surface schemes and 35 million hectares from groundwater utilization. During the same period, minor surface irrigation expanded more modestly from 6.4 million ha to 7.5 million ha, com- pared with an estimated potential of 15 million ha. While the increase in area brought under the command of new irrigation projects has been impressive, the increase in area actually irrigated has been more modest than the figures imply - particularly in the case of major and medium irrigation schemes. At the same time, in areas actually receiving water, irrigation efficiencies remain low.  - 9 - 28. The Second Irrigation Commission of 1972 and the National Commis- sion on Agriculture, which reported in 1973, found that the under-utilization of irrigation potential was attributable to the lack of integrated develop- ment in the irrigation areas, insufficient farmer training and extension ser- vice, and lack of administrative coordination. It has been estimated that the majority of recently completed irrigation projects require additional investments of up to US$600 per ha before they can become fully productive. Accordingly, for the Fifth Plan period (1974-79) various measures have been designed to improve utilization, and a Command Area Development Department has been set up in the Ministry of Food and Agriculture to coordinate work on a list of high priority projects. 29. In view of the emergence of farm technologies dependent on effec- tive water control - and given India's already substantial investment in major irrigation - the economic return on investment that improves water de- livery or else facilitates better use of the water provided can be very high. Consequently, rehabilitation and modernization of irrigation infrastructure as well as command area development has been given high priority under the Fifth Plan proposals, and a relatively large proportion of public sector investment in irrigation has been allocated for these purposes. Plan allocations have been supplemented by the resources of agricultural and commercial banks participating in financing command area development pro- grams through farm credit. In addition, major institutional changes have been proposed affecting the coordination of services in command areas and the administration of credit. 30. While emphasizing the need to improve water utilization through command area development, the Government is at the same time pursuing the objective of increasing the area under irrigation, in particular where only incremental investments are required. Thus, completion of on-going irri- gation developments is given equally high priority as command area devel- opment. Agriculture and Irrigation in Maharashtra 31. Maharashtra, with an area of 310,000 square kilometers and a popu- lation of about 51 million, is one of the largest states in India. Some 70% of the population is classified as rural and depends on agriculture for its livelihood. -One-third of those dependent on agriculture are landless laborers and their families. About two-thirds of the State is cultivated. Jowar, rice, wheat, maize, bajra and pulses are the principal food crops. Important cash crops are cotton, oilseeds, sugarcane, groundnuts and tobacco. Only about 8% of the total cropped area is under irrigation. The rest depends upon rainfall, which ranges from 4,000 mm annually west of the coastal mountain range to only 600 mm in the rainshadow east of the range. Six districts, covering about one-quarter of the State area, are classified as "drought-affected." 32. Because of the limited rainfall over much of the area, an extensive - rather than intensive - system of agriculture has developed. Farms are large, on average twice as large as the national average. Cropping intensity is only 105% in contrast to 122% for the country as a whole. Crop yields per hectare are extremely low and, for some crops, are among the lowest in India.  - 10 - 33. Irrigation development in Maharashtra, except for some tanks and minor canal systems, initially was very slow and has gained momentum only since the mid-1950's with the beginning of the First Plan. Since then, Maharashtra has invested heavily in major and medium irrigation projects - among them the Purna project, which received Bank Group assistance in 1962 ($13 million Development Credit of July 18, 1962, Cr. 23-IN, see para 36 below). It is expected that by the end of the Fifth Plan in 1979 the total irrigated area in the State will have increased to about 2.5 million hectares, with 1.8 million hectares under irrigation from major and medium schemes. 34. Despite these efforts, returns have so far been low. The lag in the utilization of major and medium irrigation projects has been even more serious in Maharashtra than in India as a whole. The reasons for the delayed growth of agricultural production in the irrigated areas of Maharashtra are manifold. They include: lack of effective authority by the entities responsible for project execution; lack of efficiently implemented water allocation plans in line with generally accepted cropping patterns; excessive seepage and lack of drainage networks; inequitable and wasteful water use within the chaks 1/ due mainly to incomplete watercourses and inadequate land shaping; and unco- ordinated and undertrained agricultural extension services. 35. To correct these deficiencies, the Government of Maharashtra (GOM) in 1974 established five Command Area Development Authorities (CADA) for the State, including one for the Jayakwadi/Purna commands. It also secured some financial assistance for on-farm development, through the Maharashtra Land Development Corporation (MLDC), from the State Land Development Bank (SLDB) and commercial banks, organized and partly refinanced for this purpose by ARDC. 36. The Bank Group has been directly involved in agrirnilt r'1 rct- .iLies in Maharashtra through three previous IDA credits. The tLrst credit (Cr. 23- IN), $13 million, for the original Purna Irrigation Project, was approved in July 1962. This project, which was completed in 1968, provided the main in- frastructure for irrigating the 60,000 hectare left bank area of the Purna River valley. It included two dams and reservoirs, one for storage and one for re-regulation, a 45 km long fully lined main canal and 723 km of distri- butaries. It also included a small hydro-electric power plant, to be operated only when water availability exceeded irrigation requirements. The project was carried out to the design standards of the time with a lightly irrigated crop- ping pattern and with low cost as the main objective. Part of the infrastruc- ture needs rehabilitation and modernization - to bring it into line with moder:1 design standards -, which would be included in the proposed project. Through the Maharashtra Agricultural Credit Project, for which a $30 million IDA credit was approved in February 1972 (Cr. 293-IN) and fully disbursed by June 1976, funds were made available for refinancing loans to farmers in Maharashtra for minor irrigation, land development and land reclamation. The Drought Prone Areas Project, for which IDA provided a $35 million credit in January 1975 (Cr. 526-IN), includes two districts in Maharashtra. It consists of an inte- grated set of measures designed to improve agriculture in dry areas under 1/ A "chak" is an area served by a watercourse, normally "etween 25 and 40 hectares.  - 11 - rainfed conditions. This project is proceeding satisfactorily, although in the Maharashtra districts it suffered some initial delay mainly because of inadequate technical staff. PART IV - THE PROJECT 37. The Jayakwadi and Purna Irrigation Systems, two adjacent schemes covered by the project, are located in the drought-prone central western Deccan. In this area, more than in other parts of India where water resources are more plentiful, strictly enforced water discipline and measures for saving water in conveyance are essential in project design. Such measures are: (a) water conservation through water allocation planning and irrigation system management techniques and the construction of a lined canal network to minimize seepage losses; and (b) increasing the cropping intensity of the large farms, which are characteristic of the project area, by a comprehensive program of on-farm development and strengthening of agricultural supporting services. The project introduces these measures in the Jayakwadi and Purna commands. It contains the following components: irrigation works, command area development and a village road network within the planned 183,000 hectare Jayakwadi Stage I command area; and modernization of canal structures and provision of drainage works in 30,000 hectares of the Purna command area. The project is limited to works that are planned to be completed within about four years. 38. The project was prepared with assistance from the FAO/IBRD Coopera- tive Program and appraised by the Bank in September and October 1976. A Supplementary Project Data Sheet is attached as Annex III. A report entitled "Appraisal of the Maharashtra Irrigation and Command Area Development Composite Project," Report No. 1486-IN, dated June 30, 1977, is being circulated separ- ately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations of this project were held in Washington in April 1977. The Borrower, the Government of Maharashtra, and the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation were represented by a delegation headed by Mr. Vineet Nayyar. The Proiect 39. The proposed project would complete the next slice, comprising about four years, of infrastructural investment in Maharashtra's largest irrigation scheme, the Jayakwadi irrigation scheme, and initiate modernization of the adjacent Purna irrigation project. It would also be the first step in a 10 to 15 year command area development (CAD) program, designed ultimately to cover over one million hectares in the State, including about 277,000 hectares in the Jayakwadi and about 60,000 hectares in the Purna commands. It would also strengthen the extension service in both areas and provide a monitoring and evaluation system for generating a data base for planning future irrigation and command area development projects in similar drought-prone areas. 40. The Jayakwadi irrigation scheme is the first major phase of a long- term program for development of the upper Godavari river basin in Maharashtra,  - 12 - begun in 1965. Implementation of this scheme is planned in two stages. Stage I, for which the dam (Paithan) and reservoir have been completed, is a gravity flow scheme designed to command ultimately 183,000 hectares. Stage II would comprise an additional 94,000 hectare development on an extension of the Right Bank Canal (RBC) and include an additional dam and reservoir along the RBC at Majalgaon. Within Stage I, about 53,000 hectares will have been brought under irrigation by mid-1977. 41. About 175,000 people live in the total Jayakwadi project area, 55% of which are members of farm households, 34% landless laborers and the remain- ing 11% village artisans or shopkeepers. Net farm income for the 14,500 farm families in the project areas, presently ranging from about Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,500 per year depending largely on farm size, would increase under the project by four to five times. The average farm size for the entire area is about 6.5 hectares, with a large proportion of farms covering 5 or more hectares. The Maharashtra Land Ceilings Act, which is being enforced, imposes limitations on the size of holdings ranging from 7 hectares for perennially irrigated land to 22 hectares for dry crop land. The landless in the area, living in extreme poverty, depend for their livelihood almost entirely on the ability to find work as hired laborers. But farm wages are extremely low, averaging Rs 1.5 to 2 per day for women and Rs 2.5 to 3 per day for men. At present, much of the labor force is unemployed or underemployed. Farmers on 95,000 ha in the Jayakwadi area will receive water for the first time, and with it the opportunity for sharply increased incomes. Exploiting this opportunity will require dramatic changes in their methods of cultivation and, given the relatively large holdings, will present difficult management tasks. The water itself will have to be managed, involving construction of channels and other on-farm developments; and its availability presents the opportunity of in- creasing cropping intensity and growing higher value crops. These, in turn, will require learning new cultural practices, arranging purchased inputs, hiring labor and securing credit. 42. In Jayakwadi, principal rainfed crops in the wet season are sorghum (jowar), pearl millet (bajra), pulses and cotton. In the dry season, main crops are sorghum (both for grain and fodder) and pulses, together with some wheat. When irrigation began (1975/76), hybrid sorghum was widely introduced and dry season sorghum was partially replaced by improved wheat varieties. With these changes, cropping intensity and yields rose quickly. Nevertheless, agricultural production in tnose parts of the project areas that are already receiving water has not met earlier expectations because of deficiencies in CAD, and inadequate roads and agricultural supporting services. 43. A summary description of the original Purna Irrigation Scheme, com- prising a command area of about 60,000 ha adjacent to Jayakwadi, is in para 36 above. In this project, primary land development has been carried out pro- gressively, mostly by farmers. The scheme has had a mixed success thus far. Water supply has shown wide annual variation, but generally has been suffi- cient to sustain an economically viable cropping pattern and moderate crop yields. In 1975, the operation of the canal system at peak flows for extended  - 13 - periods together with the impetus provided by the establishment of the Com- mand Area Development Authority (CADA) (see para 45 below) helped boost agricultural output to a record high. It is unlikely, however, that this level of operation can be sustained without deterioration of the irrigation conveyance system, which is inadequately constructed for such degree of utilization. Cropping patterns in Purna are similar to those prevailing in irrigated areas of Jayakwadi. 44. The proposed project, besides providing or rehabilitating infra- structure, would start an extended program to correct existing deficiencies and to secure corresponding improvements in areas receiving irrigation for the first time. It would comprise in the proposed four year implementation phase: completion of the Jayakwadi Left Bank Canal (LBC) between km 100 and 208 and of the Right Bank Canal (RBC) between km 20 and 132; completion of the Jayakwadi distributary and drainage canal network to serve about 95,000 hectares of the Jayakwadi command area, as well as lining of all canals; re- habilitation of irrigation distribution works and provision of seepage con- trol drainage for about 30,000 hectares in the Purna command area; on-farm development, in particular land shaping and field channels, for about 45,000 hectares in Jayakwadi coming under irrigation for the first time; construction of 345 km of village link roads and improvement of 40 km of existing district roads in the project area; construction of 11 market centers in Jayakwadi and Purna; and the provision of monitoring facilities to help determine operation and seepage losses and to measure actual project benefits in Jayakwadi. The project would further include strengthening of agricultural extension services and studies for further development in both the Jayakwadi and the Purna proj- ect areas. Project Implementation 45. Policy formulation and planning of project works as well as con- struction of the project and its subsequent management and operation would be the responsibility of the Jayakwadi/Purna Command Area Development Authority (CADA), one of the five CADAs set up in 1974 to decentralize administrative decision making and to facilitate closer coordination of the many and varied development activities in the State's larger irrigation projects (see para 35). The CADAs exercise their responsibilities during project construction by directing and coordinating the work of executing GOM departments and agencies and, after completion of irrigation systems, by direct management. The Jayak- wadi/Purna CADA is headed by an Administrator with all the necessary powers to integrate all activities of the various GOM agencies and departments and external agencies such as ARDC, SLDB and the participating commercial banks (CBs), under the general direction of a Project Executive Committee. Except for a small headquarters coordinating staff, the CADA Administrator would draw on departmental staff assigned to the project, over which he would have complete administrative control. For design and construction of on-farm development works, CADA would rely on the Maharashtra Land Development Corporation (MLDC). Funding for the project would continue to be included in the respective departmental and CADA budgets.  - 14 - 46. Existing engineering designs for canals and structures in the proj- ect areas follow established Indian practice and are based on criteria estab- lished by GOI's Central Water Commission. Under the project, the design of the irrigation system would be modified to improve operational control. Except for items proposed for international tendering, all surveys, canal and structure designs and specifications are scheduled to be completed at least 6 months ahead of the proposed start of construction of each component. Labor-intensive methods for p-roject construction work would be used where feasible. Canal structures, except for span portions, would be constructed of masonry using hand-quarried stone from nearby basalt deposits. As Jayakwadi is an ongoing project, contractors for works to be procured locally are largely already mobilized, and only a minimum start-up time would be required. 47. On-farm development would be planned and carried out according to new technical and economic standards agreed among GOM, ARDC, CADA and MLDC and acceptable to the Association. On-farm development would be com- pulsory for all farmers in a chak, where two-thirds of the farmers or farmers holding two-thirds of the land agree. Experience indicates that the great majority of farmers would opt to have their land developed. Implementation would be by the farmers themselves or - in most cases - by MLDC, which, to expedite land development work, would receive construction advances under arrangements with GOM for that purpose. Water-courses (field channels and drains) and simple masonry structures would be constructed by small village contractors. All excavation would be done by manual labor. Financing would be available to all farmers from the State Land Development Bank or from com- mercial banks participating in the project. Loans for eligible farmers secured by mortgages would be for 11 years, including two years of grace, at 10-1/2% annual interest. Farmers, who are ineligible for such ordinary loans, e.g. because of defective land title, would receive unsecured Special Loans on the same terms but with a slightly higher interest rate. Secured loans would be refinanced at the rate of at least 75% by the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC), to which a portion of the credit proceeds would be relent for this purpose (see para 49). Unsecured loans would be fully refinanced by a Special Loans Account agreed upon among GOI, GOM and ARDC to be set up in ARDC, with a 50% contribution by GOI and 25% contribution each by GOM and ARDC. It would be a condition of disbursement from the pro- ceeds of the credit for command area development that GOM has issued the necessary executive order applying the Special Loans Account provisions to the project. Project Cost and Financing 48. The estimated total cost of the project is US$140 million equivalent (net of taxes and duties), including US$38 million (27%) in foreign exchange. The principal cost components net of contingencies are: Jayakwadi major net- work (US$65.0 million), command area development (US$10.6 million), lining of distributaries and minors in Jayakwadi (US$7.2 million), Jayakwadi and Purna road program (US$6.3 million), modernization of Purna irrigation infrastruc- ture (US$3.9 million), and equipment for Jayakwadi operation and maintenance  - 15 - (US$2.2 million). The balance is made up by: extension services (US$1.7 mil- lion), monitoring of project performance, consisting of equipment and 6 man/ months of consultancy services (US$1.8 million), market centers (US$0.4 mil- lion), project preparation (US$0.2 million), physical contingencies for all items (US$12.1 million) and expected price increases (US$28.6 million). 49. The proposed credit of US$70 million would cover 50% of project costs, including all foreign exchange costs and US$32 million of local costs. Local cost financing is justified in India for projects such as this for the reasons discussed in paragraph 20. The Government of Maharashtra would finance 47%. The balance would be contributed by ARDC, SLDB and the participating commercial banks. Of the proceeds of the credit, GOI would channel US$64.5 million to GOM on the standard terms and arrangements on which development funds are being provided to State governments by the Center. US$5.5 million would be passed on by GOI to ARDC with 9 or 15 years maturity (depending on maturities of loans to be refinanced) at not less than 6.75 and 7.25% annual interest, respectively. ARDC in turn would refinance at least 75% of the land development loans extended to farmers by SLDB and the commercial banks at not less than 7.5% annual interest, repayable in accordance with the terms of the loans to the farmers. Procurement and Disbursement 50. The proceeds of the proposed credit would be used to finance: civil works (US$55.6 million), vehicles and equipment (US$11.4 million), and con- sultancy services (US$0.05 million). The remaining US$2.95 million would be left unallocated to meet physical and price contingencies. 51. The estimated cost of vehicles and equipment for project management, road construction, deep cut excavation on main canals, 0&M, agricultural sup- porting services and project monitoring is US$10.9 million (net of contingen- cies). Of this total, an estimated US$4.5 million would be subject to inter- national competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with Bank Group Guidelines. A preference limited to 15% of the c.i.f. price of imported goods, or the prevailing customs duty if lower, would be extended to local manufacturers in the evaluation of bids. About US$6.4 million worth of vehicles and equip- ment are not suitable for ICB: US$1.7 million represents groups of contracts costing less than US$100,000 each for which international tendering would be quite inefficient; the remaining US$4.7 million consist mainly of field vehi- cles and trucks for which, because of existing servicing and spare part supply facilities, there are considerable benefits to be derived from procuring local models. They would therefore be purchased locally through normal procurement procedures of GOM which are acceptable to the Association. 52. Civil works on the Jayakwadi Main Canals (US$30 million net of con- tingencies) would be procured under ICB, each tender for a minimum value of US$6 million; except for an ongoing contract, which was awarded prior to appraisal through local competitive bidding procedures acceptable to the Association. The unexpended portion of this contract after July 1, 1977 is estimated at US$3.0 million and would be eligible for financing from the credit. Tenders on ICB contracts would be divided into up to ten subcontracts  - 16 - to encourage the participation of local contractors, who would be entitled to a 7-1/2% preference in bid evaluation. The remaining civil works included in the project are individually small, scattered over wide areas, and would need to be carried out in periods between cropping seasons. Much of the con- struction work and on-farm development would be carried out intermittently as determined by seasonal weather conditions and by the on-going agricultural activities in the project areas. In these circumstances it would not be fea- sible or economic to combine these works into contracts sufficiently large to attract international competition. It is therefore proposed that these works be carried out by local contractors under small, mainly annual, contracts to be let on the basis of competitive bidding. For road construction and some CAD works, the firms likely to bid would not possess all the equipment required. Since the necessary equipment is simple and unlikely to be misused, it would be provided under the project to be hired out to the successful bidders. 53. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against the foreign exchange cost of imported equipment or against the ex-factory price of equip- ment manufactured locally. For imported items procured locally, disbursements would be at the rate of 70%. Disbursements for civil works would also be on a percentage basis (75% for lining of distributaries and minors and 60% for the balance). Full documentation would be required for all disbursements, except for payments of up to Rs 50,000 for civil works and Rs 20,000 for equipment and vehicles, for which disbursements would be made against certificates of expenditure. The supporting documents for these payments would not be sub- mitted to the Association but would be retained by GOI and GOM for inspection by project review missions. The credit would be expected to be fully disbursed by March 31, 1983, about one and one-quarter years after the completion of the project. Benefits and Economic Justification 54. In the Jayakwadi command area, the project would complete the infra- structure needed to irrigate for the first time 95,000 ha; it would line all canals and would cover 45,000 ha under a first stage CAD program. The annual increase in production, including 110,000 tons of foodgrains, expected at full development is valued at US$24 million. At full development, under the inten- sified cropping pattern, the project would annually provide 38,000 man-years of additional employment in agriculture, mainly that of landless laborers (see para 41 above). The annual net income of 14,500 farm families would increase roughly five times. The economic rate of return is 17%, or 14% for the irri- gation infrastructure area alone and 19% for the full CAD area. The benefits include the quantifiable benefits of the net value of increased production and the value of water saved by canal lining; the costs include those of the infra- structure (excluding sunk costs), canal lining and CAD components. Including sunk costs, the rate of return decreases to 10% and 12%, respectively. These calculations do not make allowance for the fact that, as described in para. 41, unemployment (and poverty) in the project area is severe and that, therefore, the real economic cost of labor employed in this project is below the market wage. If construction labor were shadow-priced at half its market wage, the rate of return would be 12.5% with sunk costs and 21.5% without. Furthermore,  - 17 - no attempt has been made to quantify the benefits, which, in addition to agri- cultural production, the local population would derive from some parts of the CAD component, such as roads. 55. In the Purna area, modernization of infrastructure will have costs and benefits similar, relatively, to those for the Jayakwadi project compo- nents. For drainage construction, which would save at least 8,000 hectares from severe production losses due to waterlogging, the rate of return would be about 13%. Since the economic rate of return is 17% for the Jayakwadi component of the project, which represents 94% of project base cost, and since the return on the Purna component, accounting for 6% of project cost, is about 13%, the overall economic rate of return for the total project is 16.8%. 56. Net annual farm incomes in the project areas, presently averaging Rs 1,600 per family, would increase under the project with full CAD to an average Rs 12,300. At full project development, with CAD fully implemented, the average beneficiary would pay annual charges totalling Rs 664/ha. This would be sufficient to ensure recovery of 35-40% of total project cost, includ- ing O&M and capital cost, within 30 years at 10% interest. As this would represent 31% of the net incremental benefits generated by the project, it would not be practicable at present to increase water charges further. How- ever, Maharashtra would in the future review and, if necessary, increase water and water-related charges in the Project Area from time to time to collect full operational and maintenance cost and, to the extent possible, cost of infrastructure investment (Section 3.06 of the Maharashtra Project Agreement). For on-farm development works, investment costs would be fully repaid by the farmers as payments on loans. Given the extreme poverty of the area and recognizing that average farm income at full development of the project would still lag behind average farm income in other irrigated areas of India, GOM's current policy with regard to cost recovery is a satisfactory basis for pro- ceeding with the project. Project Risk 57. Investment risk on the CAD portion of the project is small, given the substantial experience already gained by CADA on a pilot basis in the project area. Also, given the favorable experience in the Purna project and on the 50,000 ha already under irrigation in the Jayakwadi area, it can be expected that, with an assured water supply, farmers will be able to adjust to the introduction of irrigation in the project area and learn to manage their farms at the higher levels of productivity now made possible. On the other hand, the Jayakwadi infrastructure component involves risks. Some difficulties may arise, at a later stage, in supplying sufficient irrigation water to the Jayakwadi system. To secure an adequate supply of water to all parts of the command, GOM has given assurances: (a) that a water allocation plan appropriate for the design cropping pattern would be introduced by the time of project completion; and (b) that water allocations from the Paithan reservoir to power generation would be subject to prior water requirements for irrigation (Section 3.05 of the Maharashtra Project Agreement). Moreover, lining of all distributaries and minors in Jayakwadi, as provided under the project, would further reduce uncertainties about water availability. With full system lining and with these assurances, overall investment risks under the project are acceptable.  - 18 - PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 58. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Association, the draft Maharashtra Project Agreement between the Association and the State of Maharashtra, the draft ARDC Agreement between the Association and ARDC, the Report of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 7 (d) of the Articles of Agreement o-f the Association, and the text of a draft reso- lution approving the proposed credit are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 59. The execution of a Subsidiary Loan Agreement between India and ARDC, and the issuance by Maharashtra of the necessary governmental order applying the provisions of special loans for ineligible farmers to the Project have been made conditions of disbursement in respect of the CAD component of the Project. 60. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 61. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments June 30, 1977  0 0 4~~~~~~C sr. - tic. 0, cc~~~t 00c-C2 aC'- 4C. >. . c . - -. -- -C 2t 50 meo 4 ..) , i -tS.Ua 04 - 0-- 0 1ii MI 01 0 q N 1 Xf.0 a- 5 0! - .-. 4m-O I0 N M 7 &i SI .0* 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i I . o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a . N b-.0 I 0 21.t 0 0 t%N,,CC IC 4 , I . '2. . 4 . -- 7 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ n ~ 01- o 0NW"N 1- 9 ..~ 0 01 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  ANNEX I page 2 of 4 NOTES Unless otherwise onl-d, dots fort 1960 refer to soy ven betwe- 1959 end lvc fur 1970 - - ae i968 and 1970 and for Most Recent Estiente between 1973 an 175. 55 Brazi has bee- selecte,d as an objective country he, a- of its sine and ,,pen r nble,o of reginesi innqoailty. INDIA 1960 I 1951-hi -necage, /b 1951-60 I Ran,1 nf .-pl .iocder 15 and 65 aned eve tn lcbr forc age 10 and noer, Id Regstrd .oplcat foInck / 1962 If .gisnt-d, notal prCitiing in the tonotry; _/a Incloding nidwives; lb 1958; Ii 1960-62. 197i0 I Ratio of popeistion ond,e 1U sod 69 and I-,-re' labor Irtn age, 15 and ever lb 1967-680 Ic cnccd-ng nidwin-; /d 1967. 0os rRECENT ESTIM4ATE: Is 197, /b Rai" of popolacine os--e 1i and 65 and -ve to labor force ageIS an d ovr; Lt 1976. Id Inrluding, nidwIv; Ie 1960-71 sorge f Ppopatiscc 10 yer .ad ove ENiONESIlA 1970 L. 1961-71, lb 19-1; /c Including Ld.inee /d Total hespita1 bndc incomplete. PHILIPPIMES 1970 Ia i percentage of ..sp'eynamt; /h Nt, inelc-ing priste vocational schools. BRAZEL 1970 I Ecnoobica11Y active PoPoI.iat , /