Cameroon - Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard Engineering Project

LIV-$~ cii CIRCULATMG COPY Document of The World Bank 10it RETURNED TO REPORTS DESK FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY epNoP-1769-CM Report No.Pl9C REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO REGIE NATIONALE DES CHEMINS DE FER DU CAMEROUN WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR A DOUALA RAILWAY STATION AND MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT (THIRD RAILWAY PROJECT) April 16, 1976 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1 = CFAF 225 /1 CFAF 1,000 = US$4.44 CFAF 1,000,000 = US$4,444 FISCAL YEAR July 1 to June 30 /1 Floating exchange rate. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REGIE NATIONALE DES CHEMINS DE FER DU CAMEROUN WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR THE DOUALA RAILWAY STATION AND MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the R6gie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroun (REGIFERCAM) with the guarantee of the United Republic of Cameroon, for the equivalent of US$ 2.3 million to help finance feasibility and engineering studies for the Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard and provide other consulting services to REGIFERCAM. The loan would have a term of ten years, including two years of grace with interest at 8-1/2 percent per annum. The loan would be refinanced under any later loan or credit that the Bank Group might make for the Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard Project itself. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. The report, "The Recent Economic Development of Cameroon" (No.72-247), was distributed to the Executive Directors on November 27, 1972. A special economic mission visited the country in February and November 1975, and its conclusions are reflected in the following analysis. Economic Potential 3. Cameroon has a population of about 6.5 million (mid-1975) and covers an area of 475,000 km2, about the size of France. Cameroon's natural resources are varied, but not always easily accessible. Soils and climatic conditions permit cultivation of a wider range of crops than is commonly found in West Africa. The forest areas of the southeast contain large untapped timber resources, and the north holds promising potential for livestock development. 4. While the main opportunities for development lie in the expansion of agricultural production, Cameroon also has potential for expanding pro- duction of import substitutes needed for a growing domestic market, and the processing for export of alumina and agricultural and forestry products. A bauxite project is in the early stages of preparation, while offshore oil and gas exploration has so far yielded only modest results. 5. Commerce, transportation and transit services are important economic activities: Cameroon is a relatively large country with its main economic centers separated by vast underpopulated areas, and the country serves as a main export route for landlocked Chad. As a result, large investments in port and inland tr4',nsport infrastructure are prerequisites to promoting agriculture, forestry and industry, and strengthening Cameroon's role as a regional trade center. 1/ This text is substantially similar to that in the President's Report on the Third Education Project, dated April 7, 1976. This document has a restiftddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. I" onthits may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. -2 Past Performance 6. During the first decade of independence (1960-1970), the Govern- ment's primary objective was to unify the nation and to ease serious internal political and social tensions. GDP at constant prices grew at a satisfactory rate of nearly 7 percent a year. Cash crop production rose steadily due to good export prices and favorable weather ionditions, and manufacturing pro- duction increased as a result of the liberal investment climate that attracted substantial foreign private capital. 7. During the 1960s gross total investment averaged about US$ 200 million annually (in constant 1974 dollars), i.e. 14 percent of GDP. Public invest- ment accounted for about 57 percent of total investment with the largest part devoted to the transportation network, the most immediate development constraint, while substantial effort was also directed at expanding education and diversifying agriculture. Significant increases in fiscal revenues, com- bined with stringent expenditure controls, produced sizeable budget surpluses that made it possible to finance a large part (up to 40 percent) of public investments out of local revenues as well as to accumulate reserves. How- ever, this policy also imposed excessive restraint on much needed current expenditure in such areas as road maintenance, public health, and education. 8. In the early 1970s, economic growth slowed down to less than 3 per- cent per annum or little more than population growth. This was mainly caused by (i) low export prices for cocoa and coffee during 1971-72 and a drought in the north, and (ii) a decline in private investment induced by the relative stagnation of the agricultural sector-.and by the completion of the most obvious import substitution projects during the preceding decade. 9. The Government reacted to these developments by stepping up public investment, whose volume increased by 50 percent to reach annual averages of about US$ 180 million in constant 1974 dollars during the Third Develop- ment Plan (FY72-76), and resulted in a substantial drawdown of Treasury reserves and a major increase in foreign borrowing. Fortunately, the avail- ability of well-prepared, high priority projects enabled Cameroon to obtain most of the increased inflow of foreign capital from public aid donors on concessionary terms. For this reason, as well as the country's low foreign debt before the 1970s, Cameroon's external debt service has remained modest (about 4 percent of export earnings in 1974). 10. During the 1970-1974 period, low economic growth had significantly reduced import demand, while exports maintained a remarkable growth and pro- fited from higher prices in 1974. Therefore, the balance of payments was not under excessive pressure and the large inflow of foreign capital remained sufficient to cover the current account deficit. However, the situation worsened in 1974/75; the combined effect of a 50 percent increase in import prices with a 45 percent decline in timber exports (mainly due to depressed construction activity in Europe), resulted in a high trade deficit and a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves during the first half of 1975, announcing an era of more severe balance of payments problems. -3- Prospects and Development Strategy 11. As a result of the current and projected deterioration of Cameroon's terms of trade, exports will play a less dynamic-role in econo- mic expansion, while domestic demand is still too small to take up the slack. Therefore, overall growth in the next decade might run well below the rates achieved during the 1960s, in spite of Government efforts to maintain a high volume of public investment and to develop the country's considerable opportunity for diversification, particularly within the rural sector. 12. Steady economic growth will depend largely on the extent to which the Government comes to grips with several structural problems: (i) rural production (except forestry) suffers from a lack of financial and technical assistance particularly for small farmers, who produce nearly 90 percent of the country's agricultural output; (ii) despite heavy investment in recent years, the basic transport infrastructure is still insufficient; the Douala port and the Douala-Yaound6 corridor (the main transport route) require increases in capacity and the road system in general needs better main- tenance as well as adaptation to traffic growth especially for the develop- merit of new agricultural and forestry zones; (iii) the education system still is not responding adequately to the country's changing needs; and (iv) serious ci;onomic imbalances persist among regions, between the towns and countryside, and between modern and traditional sectors. 13. To meet these challenges, the Government must strengthe,n its ability to choose, prepare, and implement projects, particularly in the rural sector. Progress is being made in this direction. Special planning units are gradually being established within the technical ministries, A para-public consulting firm - SEDA - was created under the Planning Ministry to accelerate project preparation. Commercially oriented public c--?ora- tions are also serving to strengthen the project implementation capacity of the public sector. Nevertheless, further improvements are needed, par- ticularly in the management of public finance, and in strengthening and coordinating rural development institutions. 14. Completing the overall transport infrastructure program already underway will absorb a high proportion of future public investment. If the Government succeeds in its present efforts to accelerate preparation and implementation of projects in the other sectors, particularly for rural development, future total public investment is likely to exceed US$270 mil- lion annually (in constant 1974 dollars) during the Fourth Development Plan (FY77-81). Budgetary revenues already reach 20 percent of GDP, and cannot be expected to increase much faster than the economy as a whole, while surpluses of the stabilization funds are likely to stagnate or even decline considering the depressed price outlook for most export crops. Current expenditures, on the contrary, will expand as a result of recent increases in public investments in transport, education, and health, as will public debt service charges. Furthermore, savings of public enterprises are expected to decline since debt service will absorb a higher share of their operating surpluses. As a consequence, in the next five years, public savings after debt service will probably not exceed 25-30 percent of public investment, as compared with about 40 percent over the past few years. Hence Cameroon will have to rely on external financing for the bulk of its public investment, and on average, foreign lenders should be prepared to finance more than two-thirds of total project costs. Particularly for rural development projects this would imply some local cost financing. 15. Increasing reliance on foreign borrowing will require careful for- eign debt management during a period of relatively slow economic growth and poorer terms of trade. If, however, borrowing on conventional terms does not exceed 50 percent of foreign public capital inflow, the foreign debt service ratio could be maintained around 10 percent by the early eighties. Cameroon's ability to make effective use of external resources and the Government's dedication to development are reasons for increased external support. To avoid further rapid buildup of debt service, lenders, including the Bank Group, should provide a substantial part of their assistance on concessionary terms. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN CAMEROON 16. The Bank Group's commitments in Cameroon now amount to US$200.7 million and cover fifteen projects: six in agriculture, five in transporta- tion, two in education, one in public utilities and one small- and medium- scale enterprise project. Transportation represents the largest share (53 percent) of our past commitments followed by agriculture (33 percent). Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans and IDA credits as of February 29, 1976, and includes notes on ongoing projects. Although delays and setbacks have been occasionally encountered in the execution of projects, the Government has consistently shown willingness to collaborate with the Bank in seeking and applying satisfactory solutions. 17. For the future, the Bank Group's strategy is to support the Gov- ernment in its efforts to create productive employment in rural and urban areas, to upgrade and improve operation and maintenance of the country's infrastructure, to stimulate investment by local entrepreneurs, and to increase the efficiency of Cameroon's institutions. 18. In agriculture, we have been able to hlp the Government further diversify production by financing its oil palm and rubber plantations in the east and west, and rice irrigation and livestock in the north. The cocoa project approved in September 1974 will modernize cocoa growing by smallholders and raise rural productivity in an area south and west of the capital. The rubber project approved in June 1975 would develop the south- west coastal region. Identification work for rural development projects in -5- populated but poor regions, mainly the north and the western highlands, is underway. Besides promoting much needed foodstuff production, increased Bank Group lending to agriculture will support the Government's effort to organize itself and focus on rural development in order to correct geograph- ical and economic imbalances in Cameroon's development. 19. Recognizing the crucial importance of transportation to economic growth in Cameroon and in neighboring countries, the Government has devoted the largest portion of public investment to this sector. The Bank Group together with bilateral institutions has substantially helped develop ade- quate transport facilities. The Second Highway Project of 1973, despite some difficulties caused by cost overruns, partially alleviated by a re- cently approved supplementary credit, will help complete the basic trunk road system but at the same time provided for technical assistance to improve and strengthen planning capability for the roads sub-sector and a study directed towards establishing an effective maintenance program. The Second Railway Project of 1974 has focused on track improvement and expansion of the equipment needed to maintain and augment the railway's overall carrying capacity. Implementation of this project has suffered from cost overruns due to currency realignments, and it is ,proposed to transfer the consulting services included in the project to the proposed engineering loan (see para. 47). Given projected sharp traffic increases and the backlog of required investments, massive injections of capital are still necessary particularly for the proposed expansion of the port of Douala, and some related facilities such as the railway station and mar- shalling yard. The project presented in this report will help complete the engineering of the railway station and marshalling yard to be built outside the port area. Improvement of the Douala-Yaound& transport cor- ridor may also require substantial investment. A study, financed by the Bank and scheduled to be completed in FY77, will help determine an econom- ically optimal investment strategy for this corridor. Future investments in the transport sector will be concentrated on road maintenance and on feeder roads to provide links to local markets and facilitate exploitation of Cameroon's forests. In other sectors, the small- and medium-scale enter- prise project approved in 1975 will focus mainly on developing local entre- preneurship. A third education project which has just been submitted to the Executive Directors for approval, places special emphasis on rural education and training. 20. In all our projects, we will as in the past include training, tech- nical assistance, and other provisions necessary for strengthening institu- tions and improving sector policies. In addition, through our economic work we will continue to advise the authorities, at their request, on development questions in general, and on particular matters such as economic management, problems of urban migration and manpower development. -6- 21. Our lending to Cameroon has been closely coordinated with other donors; in ten of our fifteen projects, joint or parallel co-financing arrange- ments have been made. 22. Over the second half of the last decade disbursements of foreign aid amounted to about US$40-45 million a year. While at tie beginning of this period 65 percent of aid funds were grants, the proportion of loans has been slowly in- creasing. A major part of external assistance was provided by France and concentra- ted in infrastructure and productive sectors. The aid giving agencies of the EEC (European Development Fund and European Investment Bank) directed their lending mainly to agriculture, with infrastructure in second place. Bank Group disburse- ments were small during this period. From 1972 to 1974 disbursements of foreign aid increased to about US$60 million with one-third as grants. The Bank Group's share of these inflows amounted to about 25 percent. Public debt outstanding and disbursed as of December 31, 1974 amounted to US$280 million and is projected to reach US$1,300 million in 1980. Public debt service as a proportion of export earnings amounted to about 4.0 percent in 1974 and is projected to reach 10 percent in 1981. At that time disbursements may be over US$250 million with only 15 percent in grants. At present Bank debt outstanding and disbursed amounts to nearly 11 percent of all public debt and 10 percent of public debt service. IDA credits outstanding and disbursed amount to nearly 13 percent of public debt outstanding and 0.9 percent of public debt service. Bank Group lending is expected to account for nearly 12.5 percent of public debt service in 1980. 23. In October 1974, Cameroon became IFC's 100th member and, in a first operation approved on May 22, 1975, the Corporation will invest in the equity of Bata - a foreign owned shoe complex - and assist in the sale of its shares to local private investors. PART III - TRANSPORT SECTOR Background 24. The basi.c transport network in Cameroon has been considerably ex- panded and improved in the last ten years; however there are still serious inadequacies in the system. Furthermore with growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected at 5 to 6 percent during the next decade, pressures on the transport system will increase, especially in areas where development potential is still untapped. In recent years, the lack of basis transport infrastructure over long distances through difficult terrain has caused the transport sectcr (including communications) to absorb some 40 percent of total public investmenT. The critical issue now and for the future is to provide and properly maintain an adequate transport system for Cameroon without absorbing a disproportionate share of the country's limited resources. 25. Douala is the focal point of Cameroon's transport system. The port handles nearly 90 percent of Cameroon's external trade and a substantial share of Chad's. It is the starting point for the two main axes of road/rail trans- port to West Cameroon and to Yaound4 and the north respectively. -7- 26. The port of Douala has three main forms of traffic: bulk (alumina, clinker, petroleum), timber and general Cargo, including agricultural exports. The general cargo and timber berths are currently overutilized. With increases in both import and export traffic forecast, congestion would rapidly occur. The proposed Second Douala Port Project, now under appraisal, would improve the operation of the port and provide the capacity necessary for timber and general cargo until at leat 1985. 27. The railway system comprises two lines. The line serving West Cameroon is of minor economic importance. The Transcameroon system, com- prises the old central line from Douala to Yaounde (300 km), which carries the bulk of the railway's traffic, and the recently completed extension to Ngaoundere (600 km), which at present carries little traffic except timber from Belabo (300 km from Yaounde). The marshalling yard at Douala is oper- ating at capacity in a poor location and investment in new facilities is necessary to handle future traffic growth and improve railway operating efficiency. 28. In the north, an extensive road system continues the Transcameroon route towards Chad, and also has adequate capacity to meet local requirements for mwq years. The road system between Douala and West Cameroon competes with the old railway line and serves local markets. Between Douala and Yaounde it largely complements the railway, with roads feeding into the railway system. A study financed by the Bank and scheduled to be completed in 1977 vill help determine an economically optimal investment program for the Douala-Yaounde corridor. Transport Planning and Coordination 29. The Ministry of Transport is formally responsible for transport planning, but the Ministry of Economy and Planning has considerable influence on sector investment priorities. The Ministry of Equipment, responsible for roads,"acts largely as an executing agency. None of the Ministries has ade- quate staff for transport administration or economic analysis; an overall long-term development strategy and system of project preparation and eval- uation has not yet evolved. As a result, non-economic considerations may tend to have had a disproportionate influence on investment decisions, al- though a significanL misallocation of resources has no. occurred. How- ever, current transport problems, such as the choice between road and rail investment in the Douala-Yaounde" corridor, road upgrading versus expansion, and the inter-relationship between transport investment and regional devel- opment, indicate the need to strengthen the policy-making and coordination machinery within the sector and to implement studies and preinvestment work expeditiously in a number of areas. 30. Past attempts to reinforce the organization and machinery of plan- ning have not been very successful, but there are now indications of growing Government awareness of departmental weaknesses. A UNDP-financed expert has recently been appointed to advise the Ministry of Transport. Steps are also being taken to recruit the experts in transport planning and coordination provided under the Second Highway Project (Loan 935/Credit 429CM). Besides playing a major role in reinforcing the staff of the ministries concerned, these experts will assure on-the-job training for Cameroonian counterparts. Discussions of measures needed to strengthen further transport sector manage- ment have.been initiated and will continue during the forthcoming negotiations for the proposed Second Douala Port Project. -8- Government Objectives and Achievements 31. During the Third Plan (1972-76), public investments in the trans- port sector (including communications) are estimated at over CFAF 80 billion in current terms (out of total public sector expenditure of about CFAF 200 billion). The primary objectives were substantially to improve the transport links between Yaounde and the north, and to take the initial steps to improve east/west communications in the country. The Government has been largely successful in these efforts. 32. One-third of the draft Fourth Plan (1977-81) road program is de- voted to completion of ongoing projects; however proposals for new projects show some increase in outlays for the development of secondary and feeder roads. The Government recognizes that expenditure on secondary and feeder roads, par- ticularly in the forestry areas, will need to be stepped up, as much of the planned investment in the sector as a whole is dependent on additional tim- ber traffic. The highway maintenance study provided for under the Second Highway Project is expected to indicate the level of additional resources required and the other measures needed to establish an effective program. 33. The Government has made slow progress in establishing the appro- priate strategy, policy, and institutions for utilization of forestry resources, an essential pre-condition for developing a suitable road program in the never and less-developed forestry areas. However, the Government is taking steps to recruit the forestry experts provided under the Second Highway Project (Loan 935/Credit 429-CM). Longer-Term Prospects 34. The Government's Fourth Plan objectives include balanced re- gional development, a fuller utilization of resources and the transport needs associated with these. However, the objectives have not yet been translated into specific projects. The tendency is to concentrate trans- port investment on the Douala-Yaounde corridor. While this is currently appropriate, the long-term transport requirements of the region to the south of the corridor, may require that some consideration be given to the possi- bility that development of port facilities in the Kribi area in the mid- 1980's could relieve pressure on Douala. Accordingly, towards the end of the 1970's, when the studies now underway or planned for the Douala-Yaounde corridor, for forestry road development and for the Kribi Master Plan are expected to be completed, steps should be taken to produce a systematic long-term program for transport investment in the southern part of Cameroon as a whole. Government planning and studies will also have to take account of further improvement in links with neighboring countries (in particular CAR), measures required to improve utilization of the existing infrastruc- ture and management in the sector. -9- PART IV - THE RAILWAY Organization, Management and Operations 35. REGIFERCAM is a public sector corporation functioning under Govern- ment guidelines as stipulated in a 1974 Presidential Decree. The Board of Directors consists of twelve members, mostly Government representatives, in- cluding the Corporation's General Manager as Chairman. The Board has the dual function of implementing the Government's policy guidelines and super- vising the railway's management which is headed by the General Manager and two Deputy General Managers, all appointed by Presidential Decree. Past experience indicates, however, that REGIFERCAM operates with a reasonable degree of independence in its day-to-day operations. 36. Over the last five or six years, REGIFERCAM has faced difficult operating conditions stemming from a shortage of rolling stock and motive power and from poor track conditions on the Douala-Yaounde portion of the existing line. The Bank's First and Second Railway Projects focused on alleviating these difficulties by meeting urgent track and equipment needs. As a result, the quality of service, which had been deteriorating, has begun to improve and although the operational targets established during negotiations of the Second Railway Project have not been achieved, recent operating statistics 5bow a positive trend (see Annex IV). Further improve- ment, however, will be largely a function of better organization and manage- ment. 37. Some internal restructuring of REGIFERCAM has recently been under- taken to strengthen the position of the General Manager (by coupling this position with that of Chairman of the Board) and to clarify lines of depart- mental responsibility. The Railway has also succeeded in Africanizing its top management by appointing qualified Cameroonians to high-level positions. While these actions are fundamentally sound and commendable, there remain critical areas of organizational and personnel weakness. The Second Railway Project provided for consulting services to review management shortcomings and to assist in implementing necessary changes and improvements. These services are expected to start in May 1976. As the funds provided under the Second Project are no longer sufficient to meet disbursement requirements, it is proposed to transfer the financing of these consulting services to the proposed Loan (paras. 47 and 50). Finances 38. During the period 1965-68 the railway's financial situation was satisfactory, with rates of return on net fixed assets in use ranging from 5 percent to 7.3 percent. Subsequently, however, the financial position deteriorated (see Annex V). Operating costs (including depreciation) rose sharply due to the expansion of service over the Transcameroon link and inflationary pressures. Traffic growth slowed and capacity constraints ap- peared. More recently traffic, particularly timber, was adversely affected - 10 - by the world-wide recession and its impact on the important European timber market. Tariff increases were not adequate to compensate for rising costs. As a result of the financial deterioration and the sharp increase in REGIFER- CAM's fixed assets following completion of the Transcameroon line, the rate of return fell to zero in 1973 and to minus 1.5 in 1975. The railway's cash shortage is presently being eased by Government subsidies. 39. These negative factors are now beginning to abate. Traffic volumes for both passengers and freight except for timber, have recently been high and overall growth prospects are satisfactory (see Annex VIII page 4). Detailed studies indicate that the longer-term demand forecasts for Cameroonian timber are good and there are indications of a recovery in log sales. Meanwhile, the railway's capacity constraints have been alleviated and the quality of service, although still not satisfactory, has improved (para. 36). The management consult- ing services (para. 37) are expected to lead to additional improvements in ser- vices, and together with anticipated traffic growth are expected to increase productivity. 40. It is clear however that REGIFERCAM cannot regain a sound financial position until it implements a policy of periodic and substantial tariff increases designed to recover lost ground and to cope with future inflation. Therefore, during negotiations for the Second Railway Project, agreement was reached with the Government and REGIFERCAM on measures for improving the railway's financial si- tuation, as well as on financial targets to be achieved (Loan 1038-CM Guarantee Agreement, Section 3.02; Loan Agreement, Section 5.10). However, implementation of these measures has lagged. In particular, tariff rates were not increased to the level necessary for achieving the agreed financial targets. REGIFERCAM's current financial situation and prospects were discussed during negotiations for the proposed loan. The Second Railway Project's financial targets were retained (Section 4.01 of the draft Loan Agreement) and the Government and REGIFERCAM undertook to take the necessary measures including tariff increases, to achieve the target set for 1978/79. The first tariff increase of 12.4 percent will be implemented, effective June 1, 1976. Decision to this effect has already been taken by Cameroonian authorities. REGIFERCAM's budget that will be presented to its Board of Dixectere on April 20, 1976 reflects these tariff increases. 41. Two subsequent tariff increases will be implemented on July 1, 1977 and 1978 respectively. To determine the extent of these tariff ir- creases, presently expected to be of the same order as the June 1976 in- crease, specified working ratio targets have been agreed upon for the two fiscal years beginning at the above dates. (Supplemental letter on sections 4.01 and 4.02 of the draft Loan Agreeemnt.) Achievement of these working ratios would reestablish an acceptable financial position for REGIFERCAM by 1978/79. The implementation of this policy will be ensured through an annual review by the Government, REGIFERCAM and the Bank of the iailway's financial position and prospects and the ensuing determination of the measures needed to achieve agreed targets, including the exact level of tariff increases (Section 3.02 of the draft Guareatee Agreement and Section 4.02 of the draft - 11 - Loan Agreement). Furthermore, one of the objectives of the management cor- sulting services is to provide a thorough analysis of traffic demand and the requisite tariff structure. The findings of the consultants will be valuable inputs into the development of a comprehensive tariff policy and the Second Railway Project provides for timely consultation between REGIFERCAM and the Bank on the implementation of the findings, beginning in 1977. 42. The Railway's cash position, although now being eased by Govern- ment subsidies and bank overdrafts, will remain tight through 1977/78 even assuming implementation of the above tariff increases. The Government pro- vided assurances under the Second Railway Project that it would protect the railway's financial position through subsidies or other appropriate measures in the event of a cash shortfall, and it has complied satisfactorily with this agreement. The same assurances have been incorporated for reference in the draft Guarantee Agreement (Section 2.02). REGIFERCAM's debt/equity ratio is satisfactory because construction of the Transcameroon extension, which accounts for about 60 percent of the railway's assets, was financed mainly by grants. PART V - THE PROJECT Background 43. The proposed engineering project was appraised in November 1975. Negotiations were held in Washington on March 4 and 5, 1976. The Cameroonian Delegation was led by Mr. E. D. Quan,,charge d'affaires, a.i. Embassy of the United Republic of Cameroon to the USA. A Loan and Project summary is in Annex III. Summaries of relevant technical, financial and economic information are in Annex IV through VIII. There is no separate appraisal report for this project. 44. The need for more adequate railway terminal facilities at Deuala has been clearly identified for several years, and REGIFERCAM had planned to carry out the engineering and construct these facilities. REGIFERCAM was, however, unable to obtain the required financing and the works were not carried out. Since the existing accomodations are approaching their capacity limits, and since the proposed extension of the Port of Douala will need complementary marshalling capacity to avoid a possible constraint on expected traffic growth, the need for new facilities is becoming more urgent. The Government has therefore requested the Bank to help finance the engineering required for the eventual construction of a station and marshalling yard. During 1976, the railway will erect s3me simple temporary facilities on part of the land reserved for the new yard and station for use until the proposed new facilities become available. These works will be executed by the railway's departmental forces with available, used mate- rial. Due to their simple design, operational constraints, and the quality of the material to be used, the lifespan of these temporary works is estimated at only about five years. - 12 - 45. The new Douala railway station and marshalling yard project, for which a feasibility and engineering study loan is proposed, would essentially consist of: ti) a passenger station with tracks and platforms; (ii) a set of tracks for services and parking passenger coaches; (iii) a marshalling yard with two sets of tracks for freight traffic; (iv) a platform and surfaced areas for cargo-handling, in- cluding required service sidings; (v) a warehouse and its service tracks; (vi) a wagon maintenance shed; (vii) paved internal service roads and parking areas; and (viii) road access to the station and yard and a road bridge to replace the present level-crossing on the Douala- Yaounde' Road. Preliminary estimates indicate that construction of the marshalling yard cover- ing items (ii) through (viii), would cost about US$12 million (1975 prices) with the passenger station building costing a further US$5 million (1975 prices). 46. The new yard will require a peak-season capacity of 230 incoming wagons daily, corresponding to the expected traffic in 1985/86; about 25 percent of these wagons would be forwarded directly by blocktrains from the main line -to auxiliary shunting facilities to be constructed under the pro- posed Second Douala Port Project. However, the feasibility study included in the present engineering project may demonstrate that railway terminal facilities in the Dounala area would be best concentrated largely in the new yard, and consequently that part of the facilities included in the port proj- ect should also be located there. It was agreed with the Government that the railway facilities to be included in the proposed project for the devel- opment of the port of Douala will be based on an economically and technically sound distribution of capacity between the port and the proposed railway sta- tion, consistent with the conclusions of the feasibility study described in para 48 below (Section 3.03 of the draft Guarantee Agreement and para 4 (b) of Schedule 1 of the draft Loan Agreement). 47. The proposed loan also includes financing of consulting services for railway operations, costing, budgeting and management, and for the study of optimum inter-modal distribution of investment in the Douala-Yaounde cor- ridor. These consulting services were originally included in the Second Railway Project. The bulk of this Second Railway Project was intended for hardware items (track, rolling stock), and for construction of the Japoma bridge. Bids for these items were already in hand at the time of Board approval. However, the exchange rate fell from a US$1 = CFAF 250 at that time to an estimated weighted average of US$1 = CFAF 213 during project im- plementation. As a result, additional financing of US$1.72 million (after allow- ing for other cost savings) is required to cover the cost of part of the - 13 - equipment already ordered and the consulting services. REGIFERCA11 has ar- ranged to obtain a supplier credit of US$800,000 for the equipment. It is proposed to transfer the consulting services from the Second Railway Proj- ect to the proposed engineering project. An amount of US$925,000 for fi- nancing the foreign exchange cost (including price contingencies) of these consulting services has been included in the proposed project. Items to be Financed Under the Proposed Loan A. The Engineering Project 48. The project comprises: (i) A feasibility study to: (a) determine, as part of a master plan, the capacity demand for railway terminal facilities (passenger and freight) in the Douala area by 1985; (b) determine the optimum distribution of total capacity among individual facilities, particularly between the port of Douala and the proposed marshalling yard (para,46); (c) produce a preliminary design, tentative construc- tion timetable, and cost estimates for the new rail- way terminal and its ancillary facilities; (d) evaluate the economic and financial implications of the construction of the proposed installations based on preliminary design and cost estimates referred to in (c) above; (e) prepare draft terms of reference for the final engineering studies, as well as an execution schedule and cost estimates. (ii) Based on the above, final engineering of the new Douala passenger station and marshalling yard, including geo- technical studies, preparation of cost estimates, con- struction planning and tender documents for the compo- nents listed in para.45 above. 49. A condition of disbursement for the final engineering work is that the Government, REGIFERCAM and the Bank shall have agreed on the main con- clusions drawn from the feasibility study, in particular that the proposed design for the various components of the project (and specifically for the road access to the station and yard and the road bridge to replace the pres- ent level-crossing) have been determined to be technically and economically sound (para 4 (b) of Schedule 1 of the draft Loan Agreement). -14 B. Consulting Services Transferred from the Second Railway Project 50. These consulting services comprise: (i) managerial assistance to reorganize the railway's manage- ment, costing, budgeting, commercial activities and oper- ations. About 85 man-months of consulting services will be required to make recommendations in these areas and assist in implementing them. (ii) a Douala-Yaounde Corridor Study aimed at defining an optimum intermodal distribution of investment in the Corridor. The results of this study will provide guid- ance as to the best investment policy, given the pros- pects for both road and rail development. About 25 man-months of consulting services will be required for the execution of this study. REGIFERCAM has already selected SOFRERAIL and SOFRERAIL/OCCR (France) respec- tively to execute these studies. Consultants are expected to start work in early May 1976. - 15 - Cost Estimates 51. The estimated costs of the project, net of taxes, are as follows: --- (CFAF million) -- --- (US$'000)/1 -- Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total (i) Feasibility Study 6 36 42 27 160 187 (ii) a) Geotechnical studies 4 10 14 18 44 62 b) Final engineering 33 191 224 147 849 996 c) Engineering services contributed by REGIFERCAM 30 - 30 133 - 133 (iii) Consulting services included in the 2nd Railway Project 33 185 218 147 822 969 Total without contingencies 106 422 528 472 1875 2347 Contingencies: Physical /2 8 24 32 36 107 143 Prices /3 19 72 91 84 318 402 TOTAL WITH CONTINGENCIES 133 518 651 592 2300 2892 /1 US$ 1.00 - CFAF 225. /2 10 percent physical contingencies apply to feasibility and engineering studies for which offers are not yet available. /3 Price contingencies have been applied as follows: 14 percent in 1976; 12 percent in 1977; and 12 percent in 1978. No price contingency has been added to one contract in item (iii), representing 20 percent of the total cost of this item, since this contract has a fixed price. The cost of the feasibility and engineering studies (20 and 160 man-months respectively) is estimated on the basis of proposals received for the con- sulting services (109 man-months) included in the Second Railway Project - 16 - where the man-month rates ranged from US$5,600 to US$7,500 with an average rate of US$5,850. Finaucing and Disbursements 52. The proposed loan of US$2.3 million would finance the entire for- eign exchange cost of the project. Disbursements would be made against 100 percent of foreign expenditures for contracts awarded to foreign firms and 80 percent of total expenditures for contracts awarded to local firms. REGIFERCAM would finance the local costs (estimated at US$592,000 equivalent), part of which are for preliminary survey works, and some studies of track layout al- ready made by the railway. The estimated schedule of disbursements from the proposed Loan is shown in Annex VI. 53. Because of the urgent need for implementation of the management consulting services and the feasibility study for the new yard and station, work on these project items is scheduled to start in April/May 1976. Depending on the date of signature of the Loan documents, some retroactive financing may be necessary and an amount of up to US$400,000 is therefore proposed for this purpose. Execution 54. The feasibility and final engineering studies would be carried out by consultants to be selected an terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank. The layout of tracks for the passenger terminal and the marshalling yard will be designed by REGIFERCAM assisted, if necessary and in agreement with the Bank, by the Office de Chemin de Fer Transcamerounais. Consulting services for assistance to REGIFERCAM operations and management and execution of the corridor study will be provided by SOFRERAIL and SOFRERAIL/OCCR who have already been selected following procedures consistent with the Bank's guidelines. The final engineering elements of the project are expected to be completed by October 1977, and the other consulting services by June 1978. A tentative implementation timetable is attached as Annex VII, and was reviewed with and accepted by REGIFERCAM during negotiations. Economic Evaluation of Proposed Construction Project 55. The existing marshalling yard was fully utilized in the handling of 1973/74 traffic volumes. Delays in wagon turnaround occurred then which were largely attributable to congestion and to the generally poor operational conditions experienced during the rainy season. 56. Traffic through Douala marshalling yard facilities is forecast to increase by nearly 120 percent between 1973/74 and 1985/86. This esti- mate is based upon recently prepared forecasts of traffic through the port of Douala, and the assumption that the existing relationship between port and railway traffic volumes will continue. - 17 - 57. The proposed new marshalling yard will have a much larger capacity than the existing one, and will also be located at a better site and closer to the Douala workshops. Three main sets of benefits are therefore expected to result from the project: (a) improved productivity of the wagon fleet; (b) reduced costs of movement of locomotives between yard and workshops, shorter mainline hauls, and elimination of delays and damage caused by periodic flooding of the existing yard; (c) avoidance of diversion to road transport of addi- tional traffic which the existing marshalling yard could not handle; road transport is generally more expensive than rail due to climatic and road conditions, therefore, the diversion costs would be significant. Additionally, benefits will probably be obtained from reduced pilferage and from an improvement in urban traffic flows; however, there is not enough data to quantify these benefits. All the above benefits are directly attri- butable to the proposed project. 58. The best present estimate of the economic return on the construction project is 29 percent and sensitivity atalysis indicates that the return would still be over 20 percent even though assumed incremental traffic were reduced by one-third, in line with sensitivity assumptions employed for the proposed Se- cond Douala Port Project. While these returns are tentative for reasons given in the detailed economic evaluation (Annex VIII), and are subject to revision once the consultants' report is issued, they suggest that the engineering pro- ject is fully justified. The returns apply only to freight traffic; benefits from the investments that relate to passenger traffic have not been calculated. About one-tenth of the project's benefits would accrue to landlocked Chad. PART VI - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Loan Agreement between the Bank and the Regie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroun, the draft Guarantee Agreement between the United Republic of Cameroon and the Bank, the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement and the text of a draft resolution approving the proposed loan are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 60. Features of the draft Loan and Guarantee Agreements of special interest are referred to in paragraphs 40 to 42 of this report. A condition of disbursements for expenditures incurred for the final engineering of the railway station and marshalling yard would be that REGIFERCAM and the Bank - 18 - agree that on the basis of the studies included in Part A of the Project, the proposed design of the Douala railway station and marshalling yard is techni- cally and economically justified (see para. 4 (b) of Schedjile I to the draft Loan Agreement and para. 49 of this report). 61. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply'with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank., PART VII - RECOMMENDATION 62. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachment April 16, 1976 ANNEX c o o 'pages CAMEROON pl" pAjLwg STATION AND MAiggATLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT SOCIAL INDICLTORS DATA SHEET CAMEROON REFERENCE COUNTRIES (19'0) M)ST RECENT 1960 1970 ESTIVATE (1) GHANA IVORY COAST MKAYSA- AREA (THOUSAND SQUARE EM.) 475.4 475.4 475.4 238.5 322.3'32.6 HOPUI.AT I D-mYR, MILLION) 4.8 5.8 .6.2 8.6 5.1 10.9 PoPuLTIron (DeRSlr) PER SQUARE KM. 10.0 12.0 13.0 36.0 16, 33.0 PER SQUARE KM. ARABLE LAND .. .. .. 26.0 GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 100.0 190.0 220.0 240.0 300.0 i70.o DEMOGRAPHY CRUDE BIREN RATE PER THOUSAND .. 43.0 40.0 47.0 46.0 34.0 CRUDE DEATH RATE PER THOUSAND ., 23.0 22.0 18.0 23.0 1.0 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (/THOU) .. .. 142.0 156.0 140.0 41.o LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YRS) .. 41.0 41.0 46.0 41.0 64. 01 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.3 /a 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 .R POPULATION GROWTH RATE (%) TOTAL 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.4 3.1 URBAN .6.0 .. 5.0 9.0 URBAN POPULATION (% OF TOTAL) 15.0 b 20.0 ., 29.0 28.0 29.0 La AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0 TO 14 YEARS 40.0 43.0 .. 47.0 42.0 4.0 a 15 To 64 YEARs 56.0 .o .. 49.0 55.0 52.0 65 YEARS AND OVER 4.0 3.0 .. 4.0 3.0 3.0 ArE DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.8 0.9 .. 1.0 0.8 0.9 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 i.1 .. 1.4 1.0 fa 1.6 FAMILY PLANNING- ACCEPTORS (CUMULATIVE, THOU) ., ,. .. 11.0 .. 220.0 a USERS (% OF MARRIED WOMEN) ,: .. .. .0 ..a EMPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSAND) 2400.0 2800.0 .. 3300.0 2400.0 2900.0 a LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE (%) 88.0 82.0 .. 54.0 7A.0 47,0 UNEMPLOYED (% OF LABOR FORCE) .. .. .. 5.0 fa 9.0 6.0 L.b INCOME DISTRIBPION 6 OF PRIVATE INCOME REC'0 BY- HIGHEST 5% OF POPULATION ., ., .. .. 28.0 b ?8.0 C HIGHEST 20% OF POPULATION .. . .. .. 59.0 b A.0 a LOWEST PO` OF POPULATION .. .. .. .. 0.0 3.0 LOWEST 4c4 OF POPULATION .. .. .. .. 11.0 t 10.0 DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP * OWNED B3Y Top 10% OF OWNERS . .. t OWNED BY SMALLEST 10% OWNERS .. .. ,. HEALTH AND NUTRITION 'OPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 30000.0 b 25960,0 2622o00 19950.0 b 19140.0 3860.0 a d POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 4800.0 0 2470.0 2270 0- 1070.0 b 2480.0 /c 1010.0 e POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED 390.0 480.0 .. 76R.0 680.0 170.0 t PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF - CALORIES (5 OF REQUIREMENTS) 96.0 96.0 104.0* 96.0 108.0 94.0 b PROTEIN (GRAMS PER DAY) 59.0 59.0 64.0- 46.0 60.o 49.0 -OF WKIC ANIMAL AND PULSE .. 23.0 fa .. 10.0 ft 18.0 Ad 20.0 a,b DEATH RATE (/THOU) AGES 1-4 .. .. .. .. .. 4.0 a EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIO PRIMARY SCHOOL 66.0 70.0 80.0 89.0 77.0 89.0 a SECONDARY SCHOOL 2.0 9.0 11,0 5.0 11.0 34.0 at YEARS OF SCHOOLING PROVIDED (FIRST AND SECOND LEVEL) 14.0 14.0 fb 14.0 ft 15,0 13.0 13.0 a VOCATIONAT ENROLLMENT (% OF SECONDARY) 23.0 22.0 25.0 b * 23.0 7.0 3.0 a ADULT LITERACY RATE (5) ., .. .. .. 20.0 fe 77.0 HOUSING PERSONS PER ROOM (AVERAGE) .. .. .. .. .. 2.3 OCCUPIED DWELLINS WITHOUT PIPED WATER (%) .. .. .. .. .. 65.0 L ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (5 Or ALL DWELLINGS) .. .. .. .. .. 43.0 RURAL DWELLINGS CONNECTED TO ELECTRICITY (5) .. .. .. .. .. CONSUMPTION RADIO RECEIVERS (PER THOU POP) 3.0 36.0 36.0 78.0 17.0 57.0 a PASSENOER CARS (PER THOG POP) 3.0 6.0 6.0* 4.0 31.0 2.0 ELECTRICITY (KWR/YR PEA CAP) 198.0 200.0 188.0* 338.0 120.0 366.0 NEWSPRINT (KG/YR PER CAP) .. o. .. 0.4 0.2 3.8 a (1) 1973. * INDICATES 1972 OR 1971 DATA IF DATA FOR 1973 NOT AVAILABLE. CAMEROON 12 DATA REFERRING TO 1959 OR 1961 HAVE NOT BEER FOOTNOTED: La West Cameroon; fb 1962; Lc Including midwives, assistant midwive and assistant nurses /d Government hospitals, rural hospitals and medical centers; fe 13 yearn for Eant Cameroon. ly DATA REFERRING TO 1968 OR 1969 HAVE NOT BEEN FOOTNOTED: ft 1964-66; fb 13 years for East Cameron. ET NCENT ESTIMTE: fa 13 years for ast Cameroon; fb Excluding teacher training. GHANA DATA-REFERRImG TO 1969 OR 1971 RAVE NOT BEER FOOTNOTED: fa Registered unemployed; fb Registered, not all practicing in the country; ft 1964-66. IVORY COAST 4ATA RESERlNG TO 1969 OR'1971'HAVE NOT BEER FOOTWOTED: a Ratio of population under 15 and 65 and over to total labor fOrce; ft incme recipient; ft Goveranent only; /d 19P66; Ze Definition unknown. MALAYSIA 1970 DATA REFERRING TO 1969 HAVE NO BEEN FOOTNOTED: fa West Malaysia; t Registered applicants for work; Lc Households; ft Registered, not all practicing in the country; ft Government only; f 1964-66; LE 1967, definition unknown; h inside only. Falaysia has been selected as the caly non-OPEC of a size similar to Cameran, which endowed with a diversified tropical production, reaches the GDP per ±apte target (t$ h00 to 600). ANN1EX I Pge 2 of 1 pages CAMEROON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DATA (Amounts in Millions of U.S. Dollars) ---------------Actual --------------- -Estimate-- --------Projected--------- 1966 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1981 1966-1971 1971-1976 1976-1981 1971 1974 1981 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS ----------------------1967-1969 Prices and Exchange Rates---------------------- ------Growth Pates Per Annum----- ---As Percent of CDY---- Gross Domestic Product 845 1,185 1,219 1,250 1,290 1,290 19360 1,798 7.0 2.8 5.7 98.2 96.6 105.7 CoIn- from Term of Trode W+ -lN 21 -6 13 45 -48 -69 -97 ---1.7 3.3 -5.7 Cross Doancetic Income 827 1,206 1,212 1,263 1,335 1,242 1,291 1,701 78a 1.4 5.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 Import (incl. NPS) 211 369 367 312 368 361 390 517 11.8 1.1 5.8 30.5 27.5 30.3 Exaorts " (import capacity) 238 319 293 321 387 296 117 440 6.0 0.0 6.8 26.4 28.9 25.8 Resource Cop -27 50 74 -9 -19 65 73 77 - - - 4.1 -1.4 4,5 Consumption Enpenditures 710 969 1,000 1,032 1,074 1,122 1,134 1,432 6.4 3.2 4.8 80.3 80.4 84.1 Investment " (Incl. stocks) 153 189 197 204 184 185 230 346 4.3 4.0 11.1 15.6 13.7 20.3 Domestic Savings 117 237 212 231 261 120 157 269 15.0 -8.5 11.5 19.6 19.5 15.8 National Savings .. 229 200 214 254 105 140 223 .. -8.5 9.8 18.9 19.0 13.1 PRICE INDICES (1967-69 - 100) Domestic Price Index 88 110 116 120 141 169 191 283 4.6 11.8 8.1 Import Price Index 93 97 116 166 179 219 242 343 .9 20.0 7.2 Export Price Index 84 107 113 172 210 189 199 281 5.0 13.0 7.2 . Terms of Trade Index 90 110 97 104 117 86 82 82 4.1 -3.0 -.9 Exchange Note (CFAF per $) 247 278 252 223 210 225 225 PUBLIC FINANCE (Current Dollars) 1966-1974 1974-1976 1976-1981 ---As Percent of GDP* -- Cvl. Budgetary Revenue .. 139.6 101.0 239.7 283.8 348.0 415.0 494.0 942.0 11.5 19.1 13.8 1 .3 16.2 16.8 Gvt. Budetary Expenditure L 136.5 165.9 198.4 239.9 309.5 365.0 431.0 794.0 10.8 18.0 13.0 14.3 14.4 14.2 Budgetary Savings 3,2 A5.1 41.3 43.9 38.6 50.0 63.0 148.0 36.5 27.8 18.5 ,i 1.8 2,6 9vg. by Public Enterprises 8.5 14.4 14.4 22.9 23.8 23.0 23.0 44.0 14,0 0.0 13.8 1.2 1.1 .7 Sves, Rs Stabilization Punds 6.1 3.2 -11.9 -2.2 38.1 10.3 13.0 18.0 2. - . .2 1.7 .3 Total Public Sector Savings 17.8 51.7 43.7 64.6 100.5 .106. 210.0 24.0 . 11.7 1. 4.6 3.7 Local Borrowing (net) 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 26.0 , 100.0 5.4 0.0 .2 .4 Porein (net transfer) 2.0 21.0 58.0 29.0 35.0 60.; 100.0 310.0 43.0 69.0 26.0 1.8 1.6 5.5 TOTAL f INANCING 19.8 73.7 101.7 93.6 140.5 153.0 97. 546.0 27.5 6.' 1'. . 6.5 9.7 TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES DETAILS -----Actoal---- Prelim. ---Projected--- PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM At 1967-69 Prices And As Percent Of As I TEal Current Expenditore 1967 1971 1974 1975 1976 E Nchlan oRate Total Lost Plan- New Plan Last Plan New Plan Education 14.4 17.1 16.9 17.1 17.4 (72-76) (77 B1 (72-76) (77-81) ther Social Services .7 10.7 9.7 10.0 10.3 Social Sectors 108.3 76.2 19.8 9.3 Agricltu,o 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.6 Rural Development 76.6 195.8 14.0 23.9 Other Economic Service, 11.6 8.7 11.2 12.3 13.5 Industry,Mining,Services 19.7 18.8 3.6 2.3 Administration & Defense 59.5 45.3 42.6 41.8 40.3 Power 58.0 123.7 10.6 15.1 Other 8.8 12.6 13.7 12.7 12.1 Transport & Communication 220.0 313.8 40.2 38.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Public Utilities 37.8 59.0 6,9 7.2 Other (Administration BlKs.) 26.8 32.0 4.9 3.9 Tdtal Expenditure 547,2 819.4 100.0 100.0 (As a Percent of GDP) (8.5%) (10.1%) FINANCING PUBLIC INVESTMENTS Public Sector Savings 295.5 368.7 54.0 45.0 Other Domestic Reources 32.8 41.0 6.0 5.0 Foreign Resources 218.8 409.7 40.0 50.0 TOTAL 547.2 819.4 100.0 100.0 Not Applicable Not Applicable /1 Revenue from taxes paid to Central Government and municipalities, receipts from postal and telecommunications services and net savings by Stabilization fund. /2 All Central Gavernment current expenditures, transfers and subsidies, plus expenditures by municipalities. ANhEК У pege 3 of 5 РдЕКд CAA4:ROON . , HALANCE OF РАУl4:NT9 . Рдгt 2. Import Detall (In Ue$ т1111опв) Averвge 1966 1966-1970 г� 197г 1�7з ?�'г4 i97�, 1L 1'>7 �78 19?9 � 198о 19а1 i, 2moorko f.o.b, П. oonst.nnt (1у67-69) ргlсев еооа ( 39 5г г9 гз г3 г1 ^Э гS г5 г5 26 ^6 гб nther ^опвиnет Соодь ( 31 2$ ЭО гб 31 Эг Эг 32 Зг Эг Зг Vet,roleum ртоаисtв 7 11 13 14 14 13 15 16 17 18 19 7.0 г1 Ir,7.егтеЭздре ^,оодв 6о 80� 95 113 10о ц8 117 1г4 1Э0 1ЭБ 143 149 1`эб Сырi'ai яодв 31 56 � 91 8о 5г 6г 55 БЭ 71 79 бП 98 до8 г tJon-ГдМоr 9erw3cec 47 71 ц0 10 ,�_ 1г8 120 130 1�7 146 1�_ 1� 17З rotal г1;. г7о з69 ЗБ7 31z 36g 361 39о 41г 436 462 488 5гг А. ['rice Iпдlсеь '" Foa3 9> 10о 107 139 174 200 208 220 г30 г40 2S0 г.Е,0 г72 "�!her ^,оnвитетв iЭоодв �ЗЗ 1гЮ 100 ]21 .166 2ц г06 235 24б 2бг г7G , д,? ��? 7веюlвшп ятрдисtа 9i 100 ц5 1ц 171 г45 354 378 402 428 456 4?4 S2o iп2е�яШеilыtе Соодв 93 1ао 9б 96 цо ц9 г1А г4о г57 г76 296 Э18 341 гапlгпl �;ооав 4з �юо 97 i35 18З 177 е59 гВг 305 3г9 356 994 Чц: ::on-:ъetor 5ervleeo 9й 100 �7 - цб 166 1�_ 1 1 г�_ 2�1 _ 247 263 ?_В1 ?9Э �c,r.вl гэ+ 1оо 97 цб 166 179 г19 г4г гбо 279 г99 ?г1 ;1ы� ., с`prrent рrlевв v�ood Е Ча 5г 31 Зг 4о Чг 4Ч 54 57 бо 64 г�Р г1 't:,пг пппв.асеr юодд 4 31 94 50 55 б4 75 79 Эq цх .�г q, ,etroteun FтадпеСв 11 15 17 24 3г 5г 62 69 78 А', Э7 цо Icrer»ед;ы*е ;ooas г° Чо 91 10А 15о 189 г5�� г99 334 Э7Е 42г 474 ���4 �чр�гдl �ю-,sв .. , 8г 1о8 95 цо 143 1^� г16 гЕо 317 's76 444 f7лr.-sч•мr деrvlсев _„_ 71 1о? 1г6 1� гзо г29 г77 1� ЗБо еоР 4sy �;г� �.о+д1 I+г г+а 357 4г5 5го 657 791 942 1о71 1г17 1ЭFг 1�b6 v�= _,o�rr;e: ''1re tlpn Эес 7Юvanes, s,:а D1v1o1on дц Сотлеrсе Ext4rieur де 1д Dlrection де 1ы Btatiвtlque ди MЭnlstOre iq P1nnr Сыпегооп (through 1974). !'гр.lпеt:опд tor 19?`. оп Ы� Asnk nlsslon. 'г1^Е 1ъдLчев baaed от. Вз+,г. iыtв. @ ANMX I CAMEROON , R_g_-_7-f 5 Pages BAIMCE OF PAYMENTS Part Il. Export Dtil (in 114 Millions) AV ... g. 1W 1966-1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 lqflo 1981 It. Constant 1967-68 Price. and Exchange rate C-- 53 49 5 56 50 61 70 81 90 91 92 93 9 Coffee 50 47 44 54 62 68 63 71 73 75 78 so Q Wood 10 13 17 16 22 20 V, 2 34 44 49 53 Aluninium 2 20 14 15 14 10 23 2,5 ?6 6 P6 PF. h, Textiles li - - - - - - 8 11 14 16 le 19 1" Rural -I Other P/ 21 L16 28 38 46 19 P3 25 26 27 :,8 -2 Oils 10 13 17 17 17 17 W Manufactures Ito 39 39 116 4 59 27 28 30 33 37 141 146 Hon-far,tor Services 67 a9 -21- B9 70 65 10,3 ill IPI 13P 1113 1511 11.4 lebtal 263 04 289 301 306 330 344 386 430 1460 486 510 I T, 0. ice India O,oa 55 88 87 64 l6bi 237 PP7 19B 207 Pill P07 Coffee a8 ag 120 125 161 201 146 180 -30 271 P,88 Wood 100 100 n7 125 227 PGO 212 210 2k ow 330 168 1,09 kluminium 91 105 107 137 150 i6o 151 164 173 lag 208 - g 41 i1sxtile. - - - - - - 1211 198 001 1%16 v4l 2/ th-1 and Ithar 1 175 179 1. 175 186 Pol Als (103 103 103 .115 201 211 191 166 It"r, lcr, :ItS t 16" lh , Masdr-tules 9H 100 115 12 163 179 199 246 u 5 .1 71 ,?82 1n)"d fl-ftatt.r Sdrvi... 84 95 107 313 dt& 210 189 199 118 IL 253 P.66 I i2ini 84 95 107 113 172 Plo 189 199 218 "36 ?53 p6r, I Current Prices 0 lose. pq 43 48 47 95 145 159 16o 185 19,- 140 186 3 P., I.rfee 44 42 53 68 100 137 91 127 166 '0 3 P21 ?34 wo d 10 13 20 22 50 56 46 l 83 117 161 191, 1 Al,.In.i. A 21 15 17 21 16 34 Ito 111, It.,) 54 51) 1: Textiles 15 21 "A 11, 40 46 I., Rural -0 ;tb.r 2S 76 97 33 40 44 50 57 Als '?7 17 29 19 22 t t, g 29 M-Vst. -ur.a 19 19 45 57 10 105 94 68 77 11 10, IPI I 4 11-f.A., S-i.e. 56 85 99 101 120 137 196 236 PM Vl 3V 431 4,11 Total P21 P70 309 34o 533 693 648 766 937 109,, 1""4 1 Ilia 11 M I/ For years 1966-19!4, textiles are included as manufactured products, shown separately thereafter. 2/ For years prior to 1975, the "other rural, and oil" Include both "other goods" and the statistical discrepancy (total exports of goods a= of each cxp rt taken Individually). The total export category I. that included as exports in the balance of payments by Cameroon's statistical service attached to the Planning Nini try, re -p-cn,a are as reported by the custme service. There U a discrepancy between the two. This pro edure distorts the comparison between pre 1975 exports of rural goods and oil ., with -4e i,rX=ed values. There v" also a definitional charge in 1973 and 1974 which will show up In this series, Price indicea for cocoa, coffee, wood, aluminicso are these obtained fro. Center .. 1. statistical service (Planning Ministry, th-ugh 1974). Thereafter, insk rrolet as are Used. F- rural, otb- end oil, the Bank price index for non-food agricultural products is used, The Bank price index for manafecturea product. was also used. irdlose us Bank proje,t ionr. Annex I Page 5 or I pages CAIMBORON BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE AND DEBT PROJECTIONS (amounts in millions of U.S. dollars at current prices) Av.rage Annual Growth Rate Actual Estimated Prjected 1975- 1980- 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 197L6 1977 128 I2 1980 191 1990 1981 1990 SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Exports (incl. NFS) 309 340 533 693 648 766 937 1095 1228 1358 1509 4596 15.1 13.0 Imports (incl. NFS) 357 425 520 657 71 94 3 1071 1217 1382 1566 _13 4607 14.4 11.4 Resource Balance (X-M) - T5 13 _5 -143 -177 -133 -122 -155 -207 -264 -11 10.8 Laterest (net) -5.5 -6 -11 -16 -17 -21 -34 -42 -49 -59 -76 -306 38.0 17.9 Direct Investment Income -1.7 -2 -4.5 -T.7 -8 -8 -11 -15 -21 -28 -38 -201 30.0 21.8 Workers' Remittance -17.0 -21 -24 -33 -34 -39 -45 -52 -59 -68 -79 -216 15.1 12.2 Current Transfers (net) 15.5 15 11 20 24 30 35 38 41 44 _g 86 24.4 6.9 Balance on Current Accounts -52 -99 -16 0 -.178 -215 8 3 2_ 15.3 7.3 Private Direct Investment 12 -25.6 4.6 -13.3 -4 18 22 27 31 36 39 65 46.2 6.1 Official Capital Grants 7 6.8 7.2 13 24 26 28 31 34 37 40 87 8.9 8.9 Public M&LT Loans Disbursements 28 72.4 51.5 60 78 118 150 191 253 317 397 664 31.2 7.7 -Repayments -8 -8.8 -12.4 -16 -18 -18 -24 -32 -40 -60 -80 -217 28.2 13.7 Net Disbursements 20 Z7 39.1 _T - 101 126 159 213 257 316 447 31.9 5.7 Other M&LT Loans Disbursements * * * . * . * * * -Repayments * * * * * * . - * * . Net Disbursements * * * * * * . Capital Transactions n.e.i. 2 11.8 -18.7 44 49 71 16 - -15 -17 11 35 h7 Change in Net Reserves 11 42.6 -15.9 0 50 0 -4.4 -8.8 -17.6 -22 -27 0 GRANT AND LOAN COMMITMENTS Official Grants Grant-like 25.8 24.0 25.2 .. 24. Actual Estimted 1971 1972 1-973 1974 1975 Public M &LT Loans DEBT AND DEBT SERVICE IBRD .1.7 51.6 7.5 Public Debt Out. g Disbursed 130.9 163.0 194.9 295.1 343.1 IDA 1.5 12.7 - 24.0 18.2 Other Multilateral 3.5 .1 19.0 - 9.0 Interest on Public Debt 5.7 6.3 9.8 10.3 10.9 Goermets82 4. 7. 4.7 750 Repayments on Public Debt 7.6 8.8 15.4 16.7 18.4 Supperns 3. 2.4 4 24.7 75 16. 20 Total Public Debt Service 13.3 15.1 25.2 27.0 29.3 Financial Institutions - 15.6 - 22.0 - Other Debt Service (net) - Bonds - - - 14.8 - Total Debt Service (net) . . oPublic Lans n.. an- - Burden on Export Earnings (%) Total Public M &IT Loans IZ7 ~ 93.7 176.9 129.7 Public Debt Service 4.6 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.5 Total Debt Service . ** Actual Debt Outstanding on TDS + Direct Invest. Inc. .. .. Dec. 31, 1974 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED EXTERNAL DEBT: Dish. Only Percent Total Percgt Average Terms of Public Debt World Bank 26.8 9.1 96.4 16.9 Int. as % Prior Year DOJD 5.3 4.8 6.0 4.8 3.8 IDA 31.3 10.6 70.0 13.3 Amort. as % Prior Year DOD 7.0 6.7 9,4 8.1 6.5 Other Multilateral 38.0 16.9 57.5 9.0 Governments 153.8 52.1 263.1 46.2 IBRD Debt Out. Disbursed 3.4 7.7 13.8 26.8 45.6 Suppliers 8.5 2.9 8.6 1.5 " as % Public Debt 04D 2.6 4.7 7.1 9.1 13.3 Financial Institutions 36.6 12.4 80.5 14.1 " as % Public Debt Service 3.8 6.6 5.6 7.9 9.9 Bonds - - - Public Debts n.e.i. - - - IDA Debt Out. Disbursed 8.9 11.0 18.4 11.3 44.9 Total Public MJLT Debt - .0 7 1 . " as % Public Debt 0D 6.8 6.8 9.4 10.6 13.1 " as % Public Debt Service - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other MJLT Debts Short-term Debt (disb. only) .. not applicable e staff estimates not available - nil or negligible ... not available separately -- less than half the but included in total smallest unit shovn ANNEX II Page 1 of 6 pages THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN CAMEROON A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (as of February 29, 1976) Amount (less cancellations Loan or and refunding) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 100 1967 Cameroon Oil Palm, Rubber 11.0 - 490 1967 CAMDEV Oil Palm, Rubber 7.0 0.1 593 1969 socAPALM Oil Palm 7.9 0.0 604 1969 SNEC Water Supply 4.9 - 161 1969 Cameroon Education 10.5 - 161 1975 Cameroon Education 1.2 0.7 180 1970 Cameroon Roads I 7.0 - 180 1975 Cameroon Roads I 1.0 663 1970 Cameroon Roads I 12.0 - 663 1975 Cameroon Roads I 1.0 0.0 687 1970 REGIFERCAM Railways 5.2 - 229 1971 Cameroon Ports 1.5 - 302 1972 Cameroon Rice 3.7 0.0 320 1972 Cameroon Educaticn 9.0 8.4 886 1973 SOCAPALM Oil Palm 1.7 - 429 1973 Cameroon Roads II 24.0 12.0 935 1973 Cameroon Roads II 24.0 24.0 983 1974 Cameroon Livestock 11.6 10.7 1038 1974 REGIFERCAM Railways 16.0 5.3 1039 1974 Cameroon Cocoa 6.5 5.8 574 1975 HEVECAM Ni6t6 Rubber Estate 16.0 16.0 575 1/ 1975 Cameroon DFC, Small Scale Enterprises 3.0 3.0 1/ Not yet effective Total 97.8 87.9 8 70 of which has been repaid 0.9 0.0 Total now outstanding 96.9 87.9 Amount sold 0.2 of which has been repaid 0.0 Total now held by Bank and IDA a! 96.9 87.9 Total undisbursed 45.9 40.1 86.0 B. STATEMENT OF THE INVESTMENTS (as of December 31, 1975) 311 1975 BATA Equity Investment in Shoe Factory 0.4 a! prior to exchange adjustments. ANNEX II Page 2 of 6 pages C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/ Cr. No. 100, Ln. No. 490 CAMDEV Project: US$11 million Credit of March 28, 1967; Effective Date: July 7, 1967; Closing Date: June 30, 1972 and US$7 million Loan to CANDEV of same date; Effective Date: July 7, 1967; Closing Date: June 30, 1977 (Original Closing Date: December 31, 1974). The planting programs are now nearly completed, satisfactorily, and the company is entering into a much needed consolidation period. High level management is now Cameroonized, and the take-over from the expatriate General Manager went smoothly. However, the new General Manager, a capable person with a financial background, needs seasoning and technical support for some time. The project is now running on a sound basis and, with some managerial improvement, the prospects are good. Ln. No. 593 and Sp. Ln. Oil Palm Project: US$7.9 million Loan to SOPAME No. 886 of April 15, 1969; Effective Date: August 14, 1969; Closing Date: December 31, 1976 and US$1.7 million Supplemental Loan of April 9, 1973; Effective Date: October 19, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1979. The project is progressing satisfactorily and the plantation of 8,500 ha of oil palm are nearly completed. The establishment of the last 600 ha due to be planted in 1975 will, however, be deferred until the 1976 planting season because it was necessary to use available plant- ing stock to replenish young palms destroyed by rodents. The second mill, at Eseka estate, was commissioned in May/June 1975. The estate housing improvement program is underway. Early yields are in line with appraisal projections; palm oil prices are higher than expected but so are pro- duction costs because of general inflation; nevertheless, the financial prospects are good. 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered, and the action taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the under- standing that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution. ANNLX II Page 3 of b pages Ln. No. 604 Water Supply Project: US$5 million Loan to SNEC of June 2, 1969; Effective Date: November 4,1969; Closing Date: December 31, 1974 (Original Closing Date: May 31, 1972). This project was completed on schedule with savings which have been approved for investment in further water distribution works; however, disbursements lagged due to the strong working capital position of the Borrower and the closing date was postponed three times in order to allow remaining funds to be disbursed. SNEC and Government (Guarantor) have accepted the Bank's proposal for closure of the loan as of December 31, 1974 and the Bank has cancelled the unused balance of US$70,000. Cr. No. 161 First Education Project: US$10.5 million Credit of September 23, 1969; Effective Date: April 29, 1970; Closing Date: December 31, 1976 (Original Closing Date: June 30, 1974, first postponement December 31, 1975). The implementation of this project was slow, especially in the initial years. This resulted from delays in (i) selecting the consultants, (ii) reaching agreement on schedules of accommodation, (iii) revising the bidding documents, (iv) starting construction work for which over-priced initial bids had to be cancelled,.and (v) awarding contracts. The project is now well managed and near completion. With the exception of additional site-works, the construction of the project schools is completed. The pro- curement of furniture is completed and the procurement of equipment will soon be completed. All the schools are in operation. The technical assistance program is about 30 months behind schedule due to slow selection process; hence the closing date has been extended from December 31, 1975, to December 31, 1976. In May 1975 a supplementary Credit of US$1.2 million was approved to cover cost increases due to currency realignments. Cr. No. 229 Douala Port Project: US$1.5 million Credit of January 14, 1971; Effective Date: April 14, 1971; Closing Date: December 31, 1974; (Original Closing Date: June 30, 1973). The Douala Port Project commenced in July 1972 and physical work under the Credit was satisfactorily completed in November 1974. Credit covenants and undertakings given during Credit negotiations have been reasonably fulfilled, but financial targets have not been achieved in recent years. Remedial measures are now being urged by the Association. Cr. No. 302 SEMRY Rice Project: US$3.7 million Credit of April 26, 1972; Effective Date: July 28, 1972; Closing Date: June 30, 1976. The project started in mid-1972 and is progressing satisfactorily. Implementation is on schedule. Results achieved by the project in the fields of production yields and agricultural practice improvements have largely ex- ceeded anticipated targets. The project has been less successful in attract- ing qualified Cameroonian staff and establishing an adequate financial manage- ment. Attempts to correct these shortcomings are being made. The devaluation Page 4 of 6 pages of the US dollar and additional works have increased costs by about 3b percent. The Government, CCCE and FAC are financing the cost overrun. Cr. No. 320 Second Education Project: US$9 million Credit of June 28, 1972, Effective Date: February 27, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1979. Due to difficulties in selecting architects and agreeing on the designs, project implementation was delayed by twenty-four months, but no extension of the closing data of June 30, 1979, is expected. The project is generally well managed, but faces severe cost overruns due to the ac- celerated price increases which have occurred since 1973. Consequently one item is to be financed under the proposed Third Education Project. Cr. No. 429, Ln. No. 935 Second Highway Project: US$24 million Credit of September 26, 1973; Effective Date: December 20, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 and US$24 million Loan of same date; Effective Date: December 20, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1978. Because of inflation and the price escalation clause, bids for the construction of the three roads were 30 percent higher than the appraisal es- timates and costs are continuing to climb. The Government has awarded con- struction contracts for roads at the original bid price and works have started in December 1974. Construction of the Garoua-Mora road (260 km) is progress- ing satisfactorily whereas it now appears that some delays of up to one year might affect construction of the roads Douala-Pont du Nkam (161 km) and Pont du Noum-Foumbari (50 km). Progress of the project's consulting ser- vice and technical assistance components has also been disappointing. The project was re-appraised in September 1975 and the total cost is now esti- mated at US$143 million. This would leave a financing gap of about US$74 million. In viaw of the unexpected magnitude of the cost overruns and the absence of additional financing from new donors, the Government has agreed to postpone construction of one road section (90 km). This would reduce total project cost to about US$121 million of which about US$83 million are foreign exchange costs. A supplementary credit of US$15 million was approved in March 1976 to help alleviate the burden imposed on the Government by the project's cost overruns. Ln. No. 983 Livestock Project: US$11.6 million Loan of May 14, 1974; Effective Date: September 16, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1980. Project implementation is generally good and appointment of project staff has been completed. Results obtained at one of the project ranches are exceptionally good, but a second ranch has encountered serious start-up dif- ficulties. Bids for the construction of the two slaughter plants are to be invited by March 1976. About 70 livestock credits are expected to be pro- cessed during 1976,-and the tsetse-fly eradication campaign is likely to start in December 1976, as scheduled. Disbursements have been slow, but are expected to accelerate when the construction of the slaughter plants begins. ANNEX II Page 5 of 6 pages Ln. No. 1038 Second Railway Project: US$16.0 million Loan to REGIFERCAM of September 18, 1974; Effective Date: December 18, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1977. Procurement of main project items is well underway; track material is being delivered and rolling stock should be available by end 1975. Problems were encountered in the construction of foundations for the Japoma Bridge. Selection of consultants for the management assistance and for the Douala-Yaounde transport corridor study is proceeding satis- factorily and contracts are expected to be signed soon. Due to the present world slump in the timber market and a recent substantial increase in staff costs, REFIGERCAM will have difficulty in attaining the financial covenants included in the Loan Agreement. The project is also confronted with a financing gap of about US$2 million due to currency realignments. Other financing agencies have been approached to fill part of the gap. Addi- tional financing for the studies is being recommended under the proposed Third Railway Project (Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard Engineering Project). Ln. No. 1039 Cocoa Project: US$6.5 million Loan of September 18, 1974; Effective Date: February 26, 1975. Closing Date: June 30, 1981. The Project has made continuing progress in establishing its structure as well as organizing the training program and field development. The management is still somewhat weak and, as a result, efficient coordina- tion of the various activities is lacking. No serious cost overruns are expected, except for a small shortfall during the Project's first two years which has been estimated at about US$0.3 million; Government's contribution will be increased by this amount. The roads program component of the Project is, however, not progressing well. Measures envisaged by the Bank are: (a) enlisting RMWA's help in organizing a mission of the Highway Engineer to review the situation and to make recommendations for the setup of an operational Feeder Roads Department, and (b) exploring the possibility of having an expatriate Highway Engineer put at the head of this Department. Project implementation in the field is proceeding satisfactorily. The project's planting program is carried out in line with appraisal forecasts. Supply of inputs has been satisfactorily organized and nurseries properly developed. Credit No. 574 Niete Rubber Estate Project: US$16.0 million Credit of June 3, 1975; Effective Date: December 1, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1980. Activity at the Niete Rubber Estate got under way immediately upon the arrival of management personnel on-site in August 1975. Some planting has already been done in advance of schedule, and a first village for laborers is under construction. The management team, pro- vided under contract by a plantation firm, SAFACAM, is highly competent having had extensive experience in Asia, and having become available due to the loss of Cambodian estates. Despite lateness by one Government ANNEX II Page 6 of 6 pages agency in subsriniqg its share of a necessary HEVECAM capital increase, all documents related to credit effectiveness were received on time, and effectiveness was declared, December 1st, 1975, as scheduled. Credit No. 575 Small and Medium-Scale Enterprise Project: US$3.0 million Credit of July 1, 1975; Effective Date: June 2, 1976 (original effectiveness date: December 1, 1975; first postponement: February 2, 1976); Closing Date: December 31, 1980. Credit effectiveness has been postponed to June 2, 1976 to enable fulfillment of conditions of effectiveness relating to technical assistance contracts and co-financing arrangements. ANNEX III Page 1 of 3 pages CAMEROON Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard Engineering Project LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: R'gie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroon Guarantor: United Republic of Cameroon Amount: US$2.3 million Terms: Repayment over 10 years, including two years of grace, at 8 1/2 percent interest. The proposed loan could be refinanced under any later loan or credit that the Bank Group might make for the Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard project itself. Project Description The Proposed Project includes: (a) A feasibility study to (i) determine, as part of a master plan, the capacity demand for railway terminal facilities in the Douala area by 1985; (ii) determine the optimum distribution among individual facilities; (iii) produce a prelimi- nary design and cost estimates for the proposed facilities; and (iv) provide economic and fi- nancial justifications for these facilities. (b) Final engineering of the new Douala railway Station and Marshalling Yard including geotechnical studies, the preparation of cost estimates and tender documents. (c) Other Consulting services to (i) cover railway operations, commercial activities and management; (ii) study capacity restraints on Douala-Yaounde' corridor. These consulting services were origi- nally included in the Second Railway Project (Loan 1038-CM). Estimated Cost and Financing The estimated total cost of the project is US$2.9 mil- lion equivalent, net of taxes, with a foreign exchange component of US$2.3 million. The proposed Bank Loan will be used to finance the foreign exchange cost of the project. Details of project cost are given below: ANNEX III Page 2 of 3 pages (US$ 000) Local Foreign Total (i) Feasibility Study 27 160 187 (ii) (a) Geotechnical studies 18 44 62 (b) Final engineering 280 849 1129 (iii) Consulting Services transfered from Second Railway Project 147 822 969 Total 472 1875 2347 Contingencies: Physical 36 107 143 Price 84 318 402 Total with Contingencies 592 2300 2892 Estimated Disbursements: Annual Cumulative Fiscal Year Disbursements Disbursements 1976/1977 1360 1360 1977/1978 940 2300 Retroactive financing in the amount of US$400,000 is recommended to cover the share of eligible expenditures expected to be incurred prior to loan signature for the feasibility study and consulting services respectively under parts (a) and (c) of above project description. Consultant Selection Arrangements (a) The feasibility study would be carried out by con- sultants to be selected on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank. (b) The final engineering of facilities and preparation of tender documents will be carried out by consult- ants to be selected on terms and conditions accept- able to the Bank. An exception will be made for the set of tracks for the passenger terminal and the Marshalling Yard that will be executed by REGIFERCAM assisted, if necessary, by the Office de Chemin de Fer Transcamerounais. ANNEX III Page 3 of 3 pages (c) Consulting services for assistance to REGIFERCAM's operation and management and execution of the corridor study will be provided by SOFRERAIL and EOFRERATL/OCCR who have been already selected following procedures consistent with Bank's guidelines. Economic Justification The best present estimate of the economic return on the construction Project is 29 percent. This return applies only to freight traffic which will be handled by the Marshalling Yard facilities. CAMER 00 N ANNEX IV Page 1 of.1 page DOUAIA RAILWAY STATION AND MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT Summary of Operating Statistics, 1970/71-1974/75 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/762Y I. Traffic Pass-km (million) 226.1 220.8 193.2 199.7 281.6 Ton-km (million) 284.9 303.0 326.2 406.5 400.2 Traffic units (ton-km+pass-km) (million) 511.0 523.8 519.4 606.20 681.8 II. Operations Train mileage (km) ('000) Passenger trains 1/ 1,534.6 1,524.9 1,515.5 1,775.6 2,099.3 Vreight trains 1,326.1 1,334.8 1,310.0 1,325.9 1,222.7 Service trains 11.6 10.2 6.9 8.6 10.5 Total 2,872.3 2,870.1 2,832.5 3,110.1 3,332.5 Mainline locomotive mileage (km) ('000) 2,484.4 2,559.1 2,573.4 2,762.2 2,801.0 Railcar mileage (km) ('000) 769.0 802.7 855.3 892.0 743.3 Freight car mileage (km) ('000) 18,907.0 18,801.0 20,695.7 24,175.0 27,787.1 Passenger coach mileage (km) 5,625.3 5,581.7 6,072.3 6,690.7 8,135.6 Number of locomotives in fleet ('000) (i) diesel locomotives (excl. shunters) 36 36 45 44 3/ 41 4/ (ii) railcars 11 11 11 12 3/ 11 4/ Number of freight cars in fleet 2/ 1,020 1,358 1,393 1,383 3/ 1,380 4/ Number of passenger coaches in fleet 83 82 94 108 3/ 107 4/ Pass-km per km of line in operation ('000) 269.4 263.1 231.2 171.2 241.3 Average mileage per passenger 118 117 112 118 143.0 Ton-km per km of line in operation ('000) 339.1 361.1 388.5 348.0 344.0 Average daily mileage per freight car Flat cars ) 45 ) 56 ) 42 Box cars ( 51 48 34 (41 41 (46 52 (53 Gondolas ) 19) 25) 38) Average load of freight car Flat cars ) 21 Box cars ( 23.3 24.8 23.8 29.2 26.0 Gondolas ) 22 Number of cars loaded 45,245 43,237 42,467 43,195 44,996 - Ton-km per freight car train-km 170.6 180.7 249 307 327 - Average daily mileage of motive power Type 4B 3,000 - - 274 182 150 - Type CC 2,400 131 177 126 117 107 - Type BB 1,200 264 254 222 244 261 - Railcars 191 200 195 203 185 - Availability of motive power (%) Type 4B 3,600 - - 81 65 68 65 Type CC 2,400 54 68 51 46 65 57 Type BB 1,200 86 87.5 62 80 73 65 Railcars 71 58 61 54 42 70 Average train delay on central line (minutes) Passenger 62 81 99 130 83 - Freight 221 223 493 392 295 - Average turnround of freight cars (days) 5/ Box cars 6.5 6.8 7 9 11 - Gondolas 12.1 13.3 16 15 13 - Flat cars 9.1 10.8 13 12 13 - III. Staff Number of employees 3,525 3,596 3,699 3,853 6/ 4,039 6/ - Instructors and trainees 101 107 112 108 117 - Total 3,626 3,703 3,811 3,961 4,156 Traffic units per employee ('000) 142.1 142.1 134.4 152.9 164.1 Technical assistance 40 38 37 39 36 1/ Including suburban traffic and mixed trains 2/ Excluding departemental cars 3/ Motive power and rolling stock in service at June 30, 1974 4/ Motive power and rolling stock in service at June 30, 1975 51 Average turnround: Number in fleet x 365 days Number of cars loaded 6/ As of June 30, including staff members under contract but excluding staff working under the investment program (1973/1974: 314; 1974-1975: 281) 7/ 1975 - 46 first weeks Annex V DOUALA RAILWAY STATION AND MARSIALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT Page x of 5 pages .. Income Accounts 1967/68 - 1980/81 CFAF million SAt---------------------------- ------------------------Forecast--- 1967/68 19OJ71 1972/73 1973t74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/7 197/79 L2-,ating Revenue Passengers 412 689 593 629 1047 1099 1152 1225 1277 Freight 1628 2168 2399 3564 3904 4368 4897 5925 6521 Miscellaneous 345 199 575 405 388 400 410 420 430 Rate increases (1975-1980) --- --- --- --- k-52 1363 2733 4353 Total Operating Revenue 2385 3056 3567 4598 5339 6319 7822 10303 12581 Oprating Expenses Staff costs 1070 1366 1650 1834 2497 2900 3300 3900 4500 Other costs 608 889 1168 1735 2221 2600 3010 3600 4000 Total Wcrkiagx Epnses 1678 2255 2818 3569 4718 5500 6310 7500 8500 Cash generated from 707 801 749 1029 621 819 1512 2803 4081 operations Depreciation 269 607 744 901 1151 1308 1518 1798 2022 T.tal Or-erating Expen.es 1947 2862 3562 4470 5869 6808 7828 9298 10522 Net Operating Revenue 438 194 5 128 (530) (489) (6) 1005 2059 Interest charees 22 112 260 293 394 579 758 1022 1145 Subbidies from Government ---- --- 224 803 1182 643 224 ---- Adjustments .--- 3 16 --- 201 ---- Net surplus (loss) 416 79 (7) 638 57 (425) (540) (17) 714 Working ratio 7%7 79% 78% 88 87% 81% 73% 68% Operating ratio '82% 94% 100% 97% 110% 108% 100% 90% 84% Times interest earned 19.9x 1.7x 0 O.4x ---- ---- ---- 1.0x 1.5x Debt service 165 166 413 544 836 962 3236 1798 2220 'Debt service coverage 4.3x 4.8x 1.8x 1.9x 0.7x 0.9x 1.2x 1.6x 1.8x Average net fixed tss,ts 6575 15324 18144 27279 35803 38222 44166 50913 55728 ji; service Rate of return 6,7% 1.,3% 0 0.5% (3.57) (1.3%) 0 2.0% 3.7% Sources: Reliferoan n id .ission estimateis March 1976 ANNEX V Page 2 of 5 pages CAME1OON Douala Railway Station and Marshalling Yard Engineering Project Assumptions Used to Forecast Income Accounts I. Operating Revenue 1. Freight traffic in ton-kilometers is expected to increase by some 70% between 1974/75 and 1978/79. This forecast is based on the analysis car- ried out for the appraisal of the proposed Second Douala Port Project. The ex- pected increase in the average transport distance and the existing taper in the tariff will reduce the revenue per t/km by about 4%. 2. Passenger traffic increased sharply between 1973/74 and 1974/75, due to the opening of the Transcameroon extension between Belabo and Ngaoundere'. Its volume, expressed in passenger-kilometers, is now expected to grow by about 5% p.a. Unit revenues are forecast to remain unchanged ex- cept for tariff adjustments. 3. Tariff increases, expressed as a percentage of REGIFERCAM's operat- ing revenue are as follows: (i) an actual tariff increase as of July 1, 1975 averaging 7.7%; and (ii) proposed increased of 12.4% in each of the three fiscal years between 1976/77 and 1978/79. 4. The proposed tariff increased are considered necessary to re- establish REGIFERCAM's financial viability. A satisfactory debt service coverage of 1.6 times would be achieved by 1977/78, and an acceptable rate of return of 3.7% one year thereafter. The Second Railway Project stipulates for 1978/79 a target rate of return of 3.5%. 5. The indices shown below indicate that even after implementation of the above increases the railway's tariffs would still lag behind past and ex- pected inflation in Cameroon. Past and forecast increases of both the rail- way's traffic volume and its productivity would make important additional contributions toward improving the railway's financial position. 1973 1974 1975 1978 Railway tariffs 100 109 117 167 Price indices: (i) GDP 100 118 141 191 (ii) Imports 100 121 147 196 ANNEX V Page 3 of 5 pages 6. The proposed tariff increases are considered feasible without significantly affecting traffic levels for the following principal reasons: (i) rail relaying under the First and Second Railway Projects has and will produce benefits to customers in terms of reductions in delays, and thus more reliable rail services; (ii) the marshalling yard project will enable faster turnaround of freight wagons, and thus reduced transit time and risk of pilferage of goods while awaiting marshalling; and (iii) the management consulting services included in this project are designed to substantially improve the quality and reliability of REGIFERCAM's services, thus strengthening the railway's competitive position. II. Working Expenses 7. A strong correlation exists in the case of REGIFERCAM between the number of staff and traffic volume. This correlation can be described in the following equation: X = 2266 + 3.83 Y, where X is defined as number of staff employed at the end of each fiscal year and Y as millions of traffic units, counting one passenger-km for 1/3 of a ton/km, The correlation co- efficient for the above equation is 0.977, which is good. The above equation has, therefore, been used for forecasting future staff numbers. Its implica- tions on labor productivity are pointed out in paragraph 8 below. 8. Labor productivity would increase from 118,000 traffic units per man-year in 1974/75 to 151,000 in 1978/79 (3 passenger/km being one traffic unit). This corresponds to an annual productivity increase of about 6%, which is feasible for REGIFERCAM without major problems under conditions of rapidly growing traffic. 9. Average cost per man employed is expected to grow largely in line with the forecast internal rate of inflation in Cameroon. 10. Other costs, including all working expenses except staff costs, are forecast to increase by 16% p.a., including a provision for cost inflation. III. Depreciation and Capital Investment 11. Future increases of depreciation have been determined according to the following tentative investment program which is based on REGIFERCAM's preliminary five-year investment plan and on mission estimates: ANNEX V Page 4 of 5 pages (in CFAF milion at current prices) 1975/76 76/77 77/78 78/79 Motive Power 1100 450 350 730 Rolling Stock: freight 500 16 950 1350 passenger 160 1050 Service and Maintenance Equipment 294 40 180 Infrastructure and Buildings Realignment(0tele-Yaound e) 2900 5200 3300 Telecommunication Douala-Yaounde 800 700 New Douala Station and Marshalling Yard 300 1200 2000 Other 300 1500 700 800 Miscellaneous 250 250 250 300 5050 8970 8540 5360 12. The bulk of the above capital investment, with the exception of the ongoing Yaounde-0tele realignment, is considered necessary to increase REGIFERCAM's transport capacity in line with forecast traffic volumes and to maintain the quality of the railway's fixed assets at present levels, or to improve it where justified. 13. No provision has been made for realignment of the Douala-Yaound6 raiLway line beyond Otele, as no final decision has yet been made with regard to the execution, timing, and financing of this very large project. IV. Interest Charges, Debt Service, and Subsidies 14. Interest charges and debt repayments are calculated: (i) for the existing debt on actual terms; and (ii) for future debt on assumed terms, including an interest rate of 8% and repayment in 17 annuities after three years of grace. This reflects the average terms and conditions of borrowing which REFIGERCAM may expect to obtain for financing part of the proposed investment program. ANNEX V Page 5 of 5 pages 15. The ongoing Yaounde-Ot6l realignment and the construction of a new telecommunication system between Douala and Yaounde will be financed mostly through bilateral grants and loans to the Government of Cameroon, which undertook to assume the corresponding debt service. The capital out- lay for the above projects is, therefore, being considered as an equity contribution from the Government to REGIFERCAM. 16. REGIFERCAM's current position is presently very tight, with net current assets of only CFAF 359 million as of June 30, 1975. To rebuild a reasonable current position through an increase of net current assets of CFAF 500 million p.a., it is expected that: (i) REGIFERCAM's contribution from its cash generation to capital investment will be zero until 1976/77 and CFAF 1.9 billion during the remainder of the forecast period, corresponding to a rather low 7% of the investment volume for the entire forecast period; and (ii) the Government will continue to subsidize REGIFERCAM's ope- rations, albeit with decreasing contributions, through the current and the subsequent fiscal years for an amount totalling CFAF 0.9 million. No subsidies would be paid thereafter. 17. A cash flow forecast reflecting the above assumptions, is summarized as follows: (in CFAF million) 75/76 76/77 77/78 78/79 Total % Sources of Funds Cash generated from operations 819 1512 2803 4081 9215 26 Long-Term Borrowing 2150 2970 4035 3999 13154 36 Equity Contributions from Government 2900 6000 4000 - 12900 36 Subsidies from Government 643 224 - - 867 2 Total Funds Available 6512 10706 10838 8080 36136 100 Application of Funds: Capital Investment (para,12) 5050 8970 8540 5360 27920 78 Debt Service 962 1236 1798 2220 6216 17 Increase in Net Current Assets 500 500 500 500 2000 5 Total Funds Applied 6512 10706 10838 8080 36136 100 ANNEX VI Page 1 of 1 page CAMEROON DOUALA RAILWAY STATTON AND MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT Estimated Schedule of Disbursements IBRD Fiscal Year Cumulative Disbursement and Quarter Ending at end of Quarter 1976/1977_ (US$ 1000) 1976/1977 September 30, 1976 400 December 31, 1976 540 March 31, 1977 820 June 30, 1977 1360 1977/1978 September 30, 1977 1920 December 31, 1977 2090 March 31, 1978 2220 June 30, 1978 2300 Assumptions: 1. Effective Date: September 15, 1976 2. Awarding of Contract for Feasibility Study May 1976. CAMEROON Douala Railway Stacion and Marshalling Yard Engineering Project: Execution Time Table 1976 1977 1978 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Feasibility Study m Review of F.S. - Final Engineering Tender Documents mm ****** Consulting Services Review/Amendment of Existing Earthworks and Drainage Studies . . . . m Review of Specifications for Track Laying - Review of Drawings of the Track Lay-Out _mmmmmmmmmm_ Railway Bridge Buildings Internal Roads-Platforms & Parking Areas Weighing Bridge Foundation (Appropriation of Builder Drawings) - Utilities ** Telecom-Signalling ... Road Access (Public) Road/Railway Bridge _ag_a_gagagemageme_mes Auxiliary Works (Fences, etc.) - Planning (Critical Path Method) for Execution -. . OH NOTE: Possible extension of the allocated time (contingent upon staff availability and production of intermediate results of related'antecedent studies). ANNEX VIII CAM4EROON Page 1 of 5 pages DOUALA RAILWAY STATION AND MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT ECONOMIC EVALUATION 1. This evaluation is tentative at this stage for the reasons noted below; however, the forecast rate of return of 20 to 29 percent is adequate to justify proceeding with the proposed studies. The principal uncertain- ties are: (a) the economically optimal relationship between yard capacity and traffic volume, and distribution of capacity between yard and port, remain to be established; (b) construction cost estimates are provisional; (c) the extent of possible improvements in wagon turnaround time is not yet precisely established; (d) traffic forecasts will have to be reviewed in the light of any inter-relationship established by the feasibility study between demand for railway services and efficiency improvements. 2. Three sets of economic benefits are expected to arise from the project. Two of these relate to 1973/74 traffic volumes, which are esti- mated to represent the capacity of the existing installations; the third relates to the incremental traffic between 1973/74 and 1985/86 forecast volumes, which could not be handled by the complex of Douala railway facil- ities in the absence of the project. The 1985/86 traffic volume forecast is based upon recent consultant estimates for the proposed Second Douala Port Project. It is assumed that the historical relationship between port and railway traffic volumes, which has not changed significantly in recent years, will continue to 1985/86. The benefit sets are as follows: (a) Rolling stock productivity increases resulting from improved turnaround time at yard and port. (b) Reduced operational costs resulting from the location of the new marshalling yard. (c) Avoidance of traffic diversion to road which would be necessitated if marshalling yard capacity were not in- creased. 3. Benefit A. This set of benefits will result from a reduction in the idle time of wagons at Douala which is due to the fact that con- gestion in the existing yard prevents marshalling in the minimum opera- tional time. In effect, the port facilities are used as a wagon stock- yard, and the difference noted in Annex 7 in the average wagon stay during the reference (peak) period between the marshalling yard and port is a measure of this stock time. There are probably some opera- tional reasons for a longer period to be spent in the port, but making due allowance for this, the potential reduction in stay which would re- sult from removal of capacity constraints is estimated as 3 to 4 days for log carriers, and I to 2 days for general cargo wagons. These reduc- tions can be translated into increased productivity of the wagon fleet, and thus to a potential postponement of the need for new capacity to meet future increases in traffic. AllEX T\1 I Page 2 of 5pages The potential productivity increase would postpone the requirement for new log carrying stock from 1980 to 1982 or 1983, and for covered wagons from 1976/77 to 1978/79. The annual benefit for this productivity increase, employing the current estimate of the internal cost of capital in Cameroon (of 8-10 percent), is estimated to total about CFAF 225 million for 19C3/84 onwards. 4. Benefit B. The second set of benefits results from the location of the new yards. As the central transfer point.from main line traction to marshalled traffic, the yard will afford a reduction in main line hauls of about 8 kilometers on average. The benefit ascribed to this is reduced locomotive operating costs, and amounts to about CFAF 12 million per annum. Additionally, the time required for the average round trip haul, and more importantly, the transfer time for locomotives from yard to workshops, should be reduced by about 1 hour and 1-1/2 hours respectively. The val- ue of these reductions were estimated by REGIFERCAM as CFAF 15 million per annum. It is possible that part of this saved time may not be fully util- ized due to scheduling constraints, but on the other hand, the costs avoided by not having to program transfer movements of locomotives over the 3-1/2 kilometer between the existing yard and workshops was not quantified, and would probably offset any scheduling constraint effect. 5. A further locational benefit is from avoidance of delays caused by flooding of the existing yard. This occurs about 20 times a year, with rolling stock and locomotives being immobilized for about 150 hours, and with an estimated delay cost of about CFAF 24 million per annum. The addi- tional maintenance costs of rolling stock, and particularly of locomotives, occasioned by flooding, are assessed at about CFAF 10 million per annum. 6. Finally, there are probably some additional congestion and ser- vice deterioration costs which are not subsumed in the estimated productiv- ity improvements analyzed in Benefit A. However, the new yard will have a larger area of rail and road surface than the existing one, and the addi- tional maintenance costs will at least partly offset the above-mentioned congestion saving benefits. 7. Benefit C. The third set of benefits stems from the increase in marshalling capacity which the project affords. The capacity of the existing yard is considered saturated at 1973/74 traffic volumes, and thus incremental traffic could not be handled. This would necessitate either discharge of wagons at intermediate stations outside the Douala complex, or substitution entirely of truck for rail movement for certain traffic. In fact, the poteatial capacity for discharge at other stations within reasonable proximity of Douala is very limited. Also, a substan- tial volume of railway traffic is generated within 150-300 kilometers ot Douala which is a potentially economic truck catchment radius, and is in any case subject.to truck transport over part of its total journey. It is thus assumed that all this incremental traffic would be carried by road in the absence of the project. ANNEX VIII Page 3 of 5 pages 8. Road transport costs, differentiating between fixed and varia- ble, were established for the Second Railway Project for the mixture of road conditions current in the above-mentioned catchment area, These have been updated to allow fbrinflation, and checked against more recent, comparable data. For the railway, current costs of the necessary wagons and locomotives were employed, together with current REGIFERCAM unit oper- ational costs. Account was taken of transfer costs from road to rail which would be avoided if total movement were by truck. 9. The net rail cost advantage per ton/kilometer was calculated as CFAF 9.0 for general cargo movement in box cars, and about CFAF 2.7 for logs. The average distance to be travelled by the diverted traffic was calculated by employing the traffic origin/destination/distribution on the Douala-Yaounde line estimated by consultants for the Douala-Yaounde realign- ment study, together with the assumption that most of the Douala-Nkongsamba (Northern Line) traffic would be diverted to road. It was additionally assumed that the diverted traffic would be equally divided between logs and general cargo. This is consistent with the analysis of sensitivity of rail traffic to road competition undertaken for the Second Railway Proj- ect, and the fact that currently 50 percent of rail log traffic originates within 300 kilometers of Douala. The net benefit from avoidance of traffic diversion to road is estimated as rising from zero in 1975/76 (when 1973/74 traffic levels are again expected to be reached) to CFAF 1,080 million in 1985/86. For sensitivity analysis, a reduction of one-third in incremental traffic was assumed. 10. Additional benefits could be expected to arise from reduced pil- ferage and improvement of urban traffic flows as a result of the re- duced number of railroad crossings. These benefits are however unquantifi- able on the basis of existing data. Additionally, some elements of track investment will confer minor benefits on passenger traffic which has not been calculated. 11. The rate of return on the construction project is estimated as 29 per- cent; under the sentivity assumption it would still exceed 20 percent. The rate of return reflects benefits to both Cameroon and Chad as follows: Cameroon 26 percent and Chad 3 percent; under the sensitivity assumption, Cameroon 23 percent and Chad 2 percent. The above returns apply only to freight traffic; benefits from the elements of the investment which relate to passenger traffic have not been calculated. ANNEX VIII Page 4 of 5 pages 'AMEROON DOUALA RAILWAY STATION AqD MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT DOUALA MARSHALLING YARD - Traffic Volumes (000 tons) Daily Wagon movement (units) 1973/4 1980/1 1985/6 Vol. No. of Vol. No. of Vol. No.of wagons wagons wagons Traffic Timber 288 46 500 55 850 85 Cocoa 42 13 101 29 117 33 Plates of Aluminum 11 1 +2 18 5 19 5 Cotton 17 4 50 11 60 12 Coffee 39 6 50 2 63 14 Sugar 4 1 15 5 15 2 Groundnuts 5 2 14 17 7 Palm 3 1 6 1 7 1 Live Animals 12 4 18 5 21 6 Aluminum 26 3 35 4 34 4 Others 26 8 35 10 43 12 Total Down 501 103 + 29empty 842 137 +33empty 1245 181+43 empty Petroleum 113 12 195 20 289 29 Vehicles 5 5 10 8 15 12 Alumina 128 17 154 20 154 20 Constr.Matl. 62 7 100 11 140 16 Metal Prod. 16 3 20 3 23 4 Foodstuffs 29 4 50 9 67 12 Others 112 28 140 34 195 42 Total Up 466 77 + 7 empty 669 105+ 65empty 883 135 +89 empty Total Douala MY 969 129 Total 1511 170 T6tal 2128 224 Total Total Regie 1262 (+ 32%) ( +73%) (Total Douala) 1219 ANNEX VIII Page 5 of 5 pages CAMEROON DOUALA RAILWAY STATION AND MARSHALLING YARD ENGINEERING PROJECT Costs and Benefits (CFAF million) Year Cost Benefits A B C1 C2 Total1 Total2 78 60 79 1000 80 1600 25 26 101 66 151 116 81 51 90 51 281 182 422 323 82 150 51 394 255 595 456 83 225 51 550 356 856 642 84 225 51 772 500 1048 776 85-2000 225 51 1080 700 1165 976 Benefits: A - Rolling stock productivity increases B - Rolling stock movement reduction C - Traffic diversion avoidance C1 and Total, reflect sensitivity assumptions 1A m A i 1 14 N;IIGKER CCHHA D UPPE ) --' SUDAN VOLTA <r-.< N l G E R lA z to- 1 'CENTRAL AFRICAN Y IK X REPUBLIC 4N f G E R I A 7 - CAMEROON\ - Fort ForLomy Gul o/ -Afa oureau Fr on t G/ if Maiduguri EQUATORIA GUINEA Guinea CONGO ZA RE GABON A TLANTIC Waza OCEAN UNITED REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON f oro Mokoo \roua THIRD RAILWAY PROJECT -+-4- Railways Bongor ALL ASPECTS OF THE THIRD Paved Roads -10 RAILWAY PROJECT ARE WITHIN Gravel Roads DOUALA CITY LIMITS Earth Roads Fg International Airports BANK/IDA HIGHWAY PROJECTS Ports Road Construction Rivers GAROUA under First Project - - International Boundaries 0 197.9, Road Construction a under Second Project 'ýAmay0olyo% -8 0 2, 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 KILOMETERSo\ MILES The boundarie show.n on this ma da o *4 boply e enme.t at cceptance by the Wol akad NI ftdtae&< r' <Naoundré NIG RL.-/ \Marapb N G E R IA r.... 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