Migration and Employment in Senegal - An Introductory Report

FILE COPY Document of The World Bant FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CIRCULATING COPY CONFIDENTIAL TO BE RETURNED TO REPORTS DESK R ,ort No. 1302-SE MIGRATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN SENEGAL AN INTRODUCTORY REPORT September 24, 1976 This report has been prepared by Messrs. J. de Leede, W. Elkan (Consultant), J. Bharier, K. Zacfiariah and K. Nair following a mission to Senegal in June/July 1975, with contributions from Messrs. G. Feral (ILO) and P. van Dijk (ILO). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only In the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CTRRFEICY EUiTVALEN TS Currency Unit = CFA Frano (CFAF) EXCEANGE RATES Currency Unit Official Floating (as of December 31, 1975) US$1 CFAF 230.21 CFAF 225.00 CFAF 1,000 US$h.20 usA.44 CFAF 1,000,000 US$4,200 US$4,44) The CFA Franc is officially valued at the equivalent of FF 0.02. As the French Franc is now floating relative to the US dollar, the US dollar/CFAF exchang rae is subject to change. The exchange rate on December 31, 1975, of 1001 = CFAF 225 was retained for conversions made in this report. July 1 - June 30 SENEGAL MI*GRATION REPCRT Table of Contents PaENo. MAPS SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .i INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VI I. POPULATION AND MIGRATION CHARACTEFISTICS A. Total Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B. Regional Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 C. Ethnic Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 D. International Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E. Internal Migration Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F. The Senegalese Migrants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 G. Income Incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 H. Participation Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 II. THE REGIONS A. Groundnut Basin 20 B. The Senegal River Valley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 (i) Historical perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 (ii) Modern migration flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 (iii) Casamance and Senegal-Oriental . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 III. ITE URBAN SECTOE A. Urban zation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13. Urban Inpicy er . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . (i) Public eor . . . . (ii) Parastatal Organizations and Othecrs. . . 33 (iii) Private sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (iv) The Inf rrs.å Seetor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C. The Towns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 (i) Dakar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ii) Saint-Louic , , . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . , . . . . (iii) Ziguincor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (iv) Kaolack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IV. POLICIES AND POLICY OIONS A. Government Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B. Realizations , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . Tables of Contents Page No. C. Resettlement. Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 D. A New Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 E. Irrigation . . . . , . . . . . , . . , . . . . . . . . . . 48 (i) The Seregal River Delta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ii) The Seregal River Valley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 ANNEX I: - A NEW POPULATION ESTIMATE ANNEX II: - NOTE 01 AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE SENEGAL RIVER DELTA IN THE FRAMEWORK OF FUTURE IRRIGATION STATISTICAL ATNEX 믹꺼［ -j I B R D 12242 (FORMER, 14' d ALGERIA "BYA E N E G A L M A U 'R 11 T A N I A . "HARAI. DISTRIBUTION OF ETHNIC GROU 5 MALIRITANUX p _ International boundones pq n MALI NIGER ---Regional boundaries SIENIEGALY-,1---) GAMBIA Z;:zD National capital --'UPPýR .. BISSAUlý. VOLTA p NEA j R gional capilols D:partmer,tal capfals IV NIGERIA 0 SIERRA ÅR p SýY -16 Rivers - p COOý Intennillent streoms 51. Louis --5 p LIBERIA G ýCAMER00N p BENIN p P EQ.GUINE-ý.j P - _<ýý p p P ..... 29 OLougo Matanto ap 100 p P P, 12- KILOMETERS p 'N p 0, 2ý 4o 60 p Lingurtire MILES ýKebemer p p p pý -- p, Tiv"?aýco O.Unp_ p p E s 0 7:T, - M'bocke /-l, !-J e It DAKAR lou llel Ocean p p p M'Bo p r, P' p M A 1 1 u 10 ne 4' KýoC! p U-uh WOLOF A B SERER TOUCOULEUR p MANDING DIOLA p PELIL N.- p 13- f ~1 .,d. di"..- olda ýe Bamwa at, by m, CAP SKIR C "D MANCýGtvý RING G U I N E A 6. BISS U G u i N- E - ý U M A U R I T A N I A SPANSH ALGERIA LIBYA SENEGA L LIFETIME IMMIGRANTS IN 1971 OF PAURITANI AFRICAN ORIGIN IN SENEGAL ?oganc 1 BY REGION OF RESIDENCE SERvG MALI .ýýýý lun- • 1000 PERSONS (merer a be of aro)R E G N GAMBIA 0 N ~PROSIUa~e 7N~ 1O~~ GUINEA BISSA ** .( Y .TX FLOW OF IMMIGRANTS GUINEALBTSSA NATIONAL CAPITAL REERNU CAITL NIGERIA -6S ® REGIONAL CAPITALS SER LEo RY O DEPARTMENTAL CAP.TAL S -- - REGIONAL BOUNDARIES fA//on/c OGOC - DEPARTMENTAL BOUNDARIES BENN, EG CUIEA ON\ INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES C EG GUINEA R EjG -D-- ,,Kebeme - SG an N REGION O T U R NUEM-G- CAP-VERT* e 'bae_ -- DAKAR H0. Ocean - Fatt,ckG R E G ·· S N/E-SA U R E G O N ndiougnie olack OK - COUNThY OF ORIGIN TTLNUMBER OF G-zea 56.820 NI o a c d E\ N G A L G.mea B.sau 74,773 21,114 Mau<,amaIU 23.242 O lo 20 30 40 50 EoGl PR O 10 2030Mm560 7080 900 - - - Kduo Z~ gunco CAP SKIRRING soy GG U IN E k8<U584,dIflVeling a s I_ _ _ _ _ B R D 12243 (Formerly Spânish SM A U R I T ÀEN Gl A I""o 1 ALGERIA LIBA ORIGIN OF TRANSIENTS IN TH PERIOD JAN-MAY 1971 (DRY SEAS N) ToRoA PodorMAuIRITANIA - International boundones -- MALI NIGER ---Regional boundories SENEGAL L- ® National capital GUINEABSSL . GUIEA ~~-hi * Regional capitls GU EA 1 GERIA o Departmental capitls SIERRA LEGER 0 IRALEOE/. IVOASRY Rivers - L- - - - COAST GHAN . Intermiltent strears u AAMEROON EQ.GUINE GABON 20 40 j0 8P 0 0~, -i KILOMETERS M 0 20 40 60 nguere T iI IM'backe . * bel - --- ssa Sr REGION,- CAP- VERT. CASAMANCE - .. GbC d DIOIURBEL FLEUVE-• - - - ORIENTAL G. A A SINE-SALOUM G0 D) THIES PASSAGERS-- 2 grou Velingaira. 40,000 NIO KOLO-KOBA- 30,000 TIONAL PARK 25,000 Bignonao' 20,000 Sedhiou Gm/ 1om000 ,,,e;.KedougouO Ziguinchor O ssouye ..-- .. .." CAP SKARRVNG G BIS SU~E - ~a-byth G U I N E A12. A E JUNE 1976 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. With a drought and consequent crop failure once every four years on the average, the population of Senegal has learned to live with heavy risks. Mobility and an open eye for economic opportunities have always ranked high among the tools of survival. These characteristics lead to the conclusion that Senegal can overcome its present demographic imbalances by adjusting economic incentives rather than by accepting less economic invest- ments designed to solve its population problems. This report therefore supports strongly the rural orientation in the Government's development strategy but recommends against large scale resettlement programs. The long-term problem of fast population growth in the poor Sahel region certainly requires the attention of the governments concerned, but is beyond the scope of this study. ii. International migration is important for some regions but in Senegal does not influence the country's overall demography much. Senegal has no part in West Africa's major migration flow from the arid north to the tropical south. The second basic West-African migration pattern--from the interior to the coast--reveals itself in Senegal mostly as a domestic flow. Senegal probably has a small immigration surplus. The bulk of the international migration concerns the flows to and from neighboring African countries that are linked to Senegal by recent history and ethnic ties. Senegalese emigrants outside Africa are mainly guestworkers in France (about 30,000). Although few compared to the numbers of guestworkers from other labor-exporting coun- tries, their remittances are of great importance to the northeastern part of Senegal. The number of non-African immigrants in Senegal declined from 61,000 at independence in 1960 to 55,000 in 1970, but is not expected to go down much further, despite continuing Senegalization efforts on the firm level. iii. There are three reasons why questions of domestic migration are important for Senegal: the very rapid growth of Dakar, the high population density in the central groundnut basin and the agricultural potential of the under-populated southern part of the country. With large scale irrigation in the Senegal river basin coming closer to fruition, migration related prob- lems have required new relevance The Government has set itself high targets in an effort to influence the natural flows of people and has started a specific migration policy to bring people from the overpopulated parts of the groundnut basin to Senegal Oriental in order to reduce the population pressure on Dakar. It also launched a program to improve rainfed agriculture to diminish the pressure for urbanization. Both programs were technically successful (although population resettlement was only done on a very small scale), but the macro-economic migration incentives worked strongly against the intended objectives of the programs. In particular the number of people moved by the resettlement effort was completely negligible compared to the spontaneous population flow generated by differences in economic opportunities. Groundnut prices have been low for a long time and were increased only slowly at the end of the 1960's when the-world market improved. A series of bad crops lowered rural incomes further. In the same period industry - almost exclusively located in Dakar - grew under a protective import substitution policy which changed the urban/rural terms of trade in favor of Dakar. The low cost food and minimum wage policies in the city had similar effects. - ii - iv. In the past, Government underestimated demographic trends. Both population growth and urban migration seem to be much higher than generally believed. In 1975, overall population is probably slightly over 5 million people 1/ instead of the 4.3 million used in most calculations and is most likely growing by 2.7 percent a year instead of 2.2 percent as regularly assumed. Official estimates (based on subsistence income levels of farmers using traditional techniques), which arrive at an overpopulation in the groundnut basin of 200,000 persons in 1970, may therefore, also be too low. Similarly, the estimated population growth rates for Dakar are at about 6 percent a year.whereas the mission's findings point to higher figures: roughly 10 percent annual in-migration and 5 percent out-migration on top of 3 percent natural population growth. Since Dakar has absorbed more rural migrants than expected, part of the excess rural population is at the moment apparently living in that city. v. The Government's concern about the overcrowding of the central groundnut basin is probably to a certain extent justified but one can question the policy conclusions drawn from this situation. In the middle of the 19th century the population moved into this area -- at that time, sparsely populated pasture lands -- to cultivate groundnuts. Between the two world wars the "groundnut frontier" reached the southern part of the present ground- nut basin. Religious brotherhoods like the "Mourides" played an important role in this expansion. In recent decades the frontier has moved to Senegal Oriental, the rural province with the highest population growth. Although the dynamism of earlier groundnut expansion has weakened because of the drift to Dakar, it nevertheless still exists. The Government, concerned about the population pressure in the west of the country and also about disorderly exploitation of the sensitive semi-arid ecology, tried to bring spontaneous migration under control with land laws and started an official resettlement policy. After one technically successful pilot project and a second underway-- both financed by the Bank--it became clear that the objectives of the govern- ment to resettle 70,000 persons in the active age groups together with their families before the end of the decade could not even be approached, let alone reached, mainly because of the high cost per migrant and the absence of large blocks of unpopulated fertile land free of riverblindness. Subsidies and credits to start the project and to attract the migrants had to be high because only farmers orILginating from narrowly defined geographical areas and with experience in improved agricultural techniques were recruited. This meant farmers who were by definition not the worse off and not necessarily the most willing to move. The advantages of moving to a relatively empty area were further reduced by project rules limiting farm size and imposing intensive agricultural methods in a region where good land is not a con- straint. While these drawbacks could have been removed from future projects the most dangerous aspect was that spontaneous migration was actively dis- couraged by the new land laws. vi. Because of experience with the pilot projects the Government is now changing its policies towards a more dispersed approach which will I/ Preliminary results of the recent population census indicate 5.085.388 inhabitants in April 1976. - iii - be specified in a regional development plan. From the above analysis it can be concluded that the new approach should not try to induce specific people to move, but rather aim at development of the region as the first priority and encourage and guide spontaneous migration. Since there is enough competition for land, migrants will come when land becomes accessible to them. The presence of economically active migrants will probably help to bring the existing population into the market economy. Spontaneous migration can be promoted by promising new infrastructure to village heads as their village grows and land clearing and destumping premiums for the migrants who settle. An effective land tenure control system and extension services should prevent the abuses of the old style colonization. Giving foreign migrants who border the area the same rights as the Senegalese should also be considered, since they often belong to the same ethnic group, and flows across the border are commonplace. In addition to the liberalization of the migration policy new land must be opened up by providing drinking water and by eradication of river blindness. Some small, organized settlement schemes may be helpful to start off spontaneous migration. In such cases the private sector, in the form of western style plantations and cooperatives of religious brotherhoods, should not be overlooked in order to give the region the broadest possible economic base. vii. Liberalization of the migration policy in Senegal Oriental--which would imply that the available land will be occupied by people from various origins--would not noticeably worsen the,situation in the groundnut basin. The number of people that can be reached by official resettlement projects is negligible compared to the total population in the groundnut basin. What is more important, fast development of Senegal Oriental will bolster the towns in the west which will probably have to continue to absorb the bulk of the surplus rural population in the groundnut basin. viii. The Government's policies to promote rainfed farming are managing to increase yields, but heavier tools and ox traction require a larger farm size, and reduce the man/land ratio. In most of the country land is not yet an absolute constraint but in the central groundnut basin agricultural under- employment--even in the peak season--will increase. The number of hired labor is already going down, and a town like Kaolack is crowded with surplus agri- cultural population. African family solidarity will keep relatively large numbers of people on the farms until the next drought but then they will be pushed to the towns. On the other hand, the higher profitability of modern farming may increase the push to the new lands. Moreover, recently discovered groundwater and the growing cities may provide possibilities for a more intensive type of agriculture like vegetables and fruits, although the overall impact should not be overestimated. The population of the central groundnut basin will probably continue to depend on secondary income through temporary migration to the towns as well as on permanent migration for part of its inhabitants. ix. Irrigation in the Senegal River basin will have an important impact on national migration flows, but will probably not provide an opportunity for massive resettlement of farmers from the groundnut basin. Since 1945 - iv - large numbers of people from the middle valley have migrated to Dakar. In the sixties, the population of the upper valley started to migrate to France, bringing new prosperity to the region with the remittances of their savings. On the average, 30 percent of the active population is absent. Irrigation will hopefully reverse this trend. In the river delta where irrigation projects are already underway, some small resettlement projects have suc- ceeded but have required much time and management attention. The economic justification of major infrastructure, for example dams, depends heavily on the pace at which the agricultural components can be developed; a large migra- tion element would risk slowing down agricultural development and becoming a bottleneck in the project.. On the other hand, prospects of labor shortages in the valley would lead to more mechanization than is justifiable, consider- ing the large number of low-income farmers in the groundnut basin. Incomes in the valley would become disproportionately high in relation to the rest of the rural economy. Spontaneous migration would follow with a lag, but by then the earlier introduction of mechanization on relatively large land holdings would make it difficult to absorb the migrants and their terms of employment would then likely be relatively disadvantageous. Overmechanization can be avoided if the migration response is quick enough. As can be seen in other parts of Senegal, migration response is largely a function of the number of migrants already established in the area. They disseminate information on migrant opportunities in the departure zones and create a natural structure to receive new migrants through the extended family system. It is therefore of major importance to establish these nuclei for later population inflows well in advance. This would call for a limited number of carefully planned resettlement schemes which would be costly because the economic base is not yet there. It should be remembered here that resettlement schemes in areas with irrigation are much cheaper than in areas with rainfed agriculture because in irrigated areas the population can be much more concentrated. x. If the Diama Dam in the delta is constructed, the Senegalese side of the project area will soon experience a labor shortage. Since agricultural development is less advanced on the Mauritanian side there will probably be a strong tendency for Mauritanian immigration to develop. The delta region as a whole has sufficient manpower available until 1980 and the shortages during the early eighties can probably easily be met from the direct environ- ment of the delta. However, the acceptance of -foreigners on the precious, double-croppable land', may be a difficult decision for the Senegalese Govern- ment and will probably only be taken as part of negotiations on the water rights. Since the new villages in the area have, after 15 years, grown into viable communities they certainly will become poles of attraction as soon as the dam is completed and double cropping becomes possible. xi. From the above analysis it becomes clear that the Government can- not do much to relieve the population pressure in the central groundnut basin where a good part of the rural population lives. The migration flow from this area to Dakar may at best be slowed down, but there is no evidence that the situation in Dakar will necessarily become critical. Certainly Dakar now contains more poor people than it did 10 years ago. Employment with the Government and modern enterprises (called the formal sector) has not grown - v - much faster than 3 percent a year - only a third of the growth of Dakar's active population. Nevertheless, living standards in the squatter areas have not deteriorated. This is mainly due to the substantial growth of income opportunities in the informal sector. This sector includes all production of services and goods by individuals and very small enterprises, who in turn market to people who earn their incomes in the formal sector, to visitors from the countryside and to the participants in the informal sector themselves. The latter is very important. Apparently the stream of uneducated rural migrants to Dakar finding work in informal sector by itself added to the demand for very labor-intensive products and services. Thus the informal sector to a large extent generates its own employment and income opportunities. xii. From a mere technical point of view there would not seem to be limits on the growth of Dakar for a long time to come. On a world scale Dakar is only a small metropolis. The constraint is on the economic side. With an increasing share of the population living in Dakar it is clear that this town would derive a decreasing part of its prosperity from the rela- tively poor and slowly developing hinterland. Only export-oriented indus- tries can provide a more self-supporting economic base. The creation of the industrial free zone near Dakar and the development of a tourist in- dustry are two important steps already taken by the Government. Further development of export-oriented activities will require lowering Senegal's now exceptionally high wage costs. Although it will be tempting to the Government to reach this goal through a cheap food policy, it should do the opposite because of the impact of such a policy on rural incomes. A stabilization or even a. decrease in urban living standards is probably re- quired to arrive at lower wage costs without a reduction in rural incomes which would multiply the inflow of rural poor in Dakar. xiii. Migration into Dakar is probably sensitive to small changes in relative rural urban income opportunities. Seasonal migration goes in both directions: town dwellers help their relatives in the countryside during the peak time in the rainy season when activity in Dakar is low due to summer holidays; rural people are housed by urban relatives when searching for temporary jobs duri'ng the dry season. Even if town dwellers do not participate in these seasonal movements they keep ties with their village of origin. This provides widespread knowledge on income opportunities throughout the country and mobility at relatively low risk levels. The resulting high mobility implies that small changes in gross migration flows can lead to sizable differences in the net inflow into Dakar. A decrease in the average living standards in Dakar will for this reason not lead to pauperism for those living on the fringe of the urban economy. The minimum is very much set by income opportunities in the countryside and it is rea- sonable to believe that equilibrium between countryside and town will be restored by changes in the migration flows. Senegal is in this respect better placed than countries with an overall absolute land constraint or with a large urban population which through tradition or education, has become unfit to move. INTRODUCTION 1. In the course of the 1960's, a number of migration-related problems became of increasing significance to the Government's objectives for economic development. First, Senegal's capital, Dakar, went through a period of fast population growth, much faster than the number of jobs that could be created, leading to large squatter areas in and outside the city's boundaries. Second, during this period, the Government became particularly concerned about the situation in the groundrut basin, where according to its calculations about 1.4 million people are crowded together with insufficient land available to sustain reasonable living standards based on the application of existing agricultural techniques. A third concern of the Government was related to the slow development of the underpopulated Southern provinces, where possibil- ities for agriculture are considered to be much better than in the rest of the country. Partly to meet these concerns the Government oriented its devel- opment strategy towards the rural sector, aiming at higher productivity and diversification of agricultural production and resettlement of part of the excess population of the groundnut basin in Senegal Oriental. The Bank firmly supported this policy with a number of rural projects, including two pilot resettlement projects. 2. A few years ago, however, it became increasingly clear that the Government policies were not fully effective. Low producer prices appeared to be undoing the beneficial affects of the rural investments; the resettle- ment policy proved to be too expensive and was affecting too few people to have an impact on the population pressures in the groundnut basin. Since the Government was in effect actively supporting urban living standards through its price and fiscal policies, migration into Dakar continued and even accelerated after a series of bad crops between 1968 and 1973. A fourth reason to reevaluate existing policies emerged when large scale irrigation in the Senegal River Basin came closer within reach. Such project would almost certainly reduce the outward migration from this area and probably induce a net inflow of people. At the moment, the Government is in the process of reviewing its policies and some major steps in the right direc- tion have already been taken. The resettlement policy will be discontinued in its present form, and price policies were changed resulting in an improve- ment in the rural/urban terms of trade and a reversal in the subsidization of urban consumers by the farmers. 3. Because of the Bank's special concern about the rural and urban poor and our direct involvement in migration-related projects, it was decided to devote a special study on migration in Senegal. Although handicapped by the absence of reliable population data (Senegal's first full census was undertaken in April 1976). The report gives a deomographic analysis on the basis of the best available data, describes the current Government policies and tries to outline the options for the major migration related issues which are on the horizon of Senegal's development. This report will be used as an input in the basic economic report on.Senegal which will try to contribute to the formulation of economic strategy for the next planning period. - 2 - I. POPULATION AND MIGRATION CHARACTERISTICS A. Total Population 4. Compared to other developing countries in the same per capita income bracket, available estimates on population growth in Senegal seem to be very low. During the first decade of the this century, the country comprised in effect the communes of Dakar, Saint-Louis, Goree, Rufisque, and small areas on either side of the Senegal and Casamance rivers and of the Dakar-Saint- Louis railway line. The combined size of these areas was 1,135 km2 and an estimate made in 1907 put the number of total inhabitants at 107,826. 1/ The population of the 196,192 km2 area which is now Senegal must have then been on the order of 1.1 million. 2/ This corresponds to an estimate of 1.4 million in 1926 3/ and 2.2 million in 1957 1/, implying that population growth was about 1.2 percent a year before 1926 and 1.5 percent thereafter. In 1960/1961 a sample survey was done, which indicated a total population of 3.1 million people. Taken in conjunction with earlier estimates the annual growth of the African population in Senegal would come to about 2 percent. Most observers in the 1960's, including the Ministry of Planning, were using a 2.2 percent growth rate in their projections. All their judgments were conditioned by the findings of the 1.960/61 demographic sample survey and reinforced by the 1970/71 survey. Total population figures in the two surveys imply an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent leading to the most currently used population estimate of 4.3 million for mid-1975. However, one would expect mortality rates--in particular those of infants--to continue their decline like it was the case in most of the other West African states. 5. With these low figures used for planning purposes, population- related analysis may have been consistently underestimated. It can be clearly demonstrated that the number of infants and children were underestimated in the 1970/71 survey whereas young men were under-enumerated in both surveys (see Annex I). Migration in and out of the country may explain part of the irregularities in age and sex ratios, but in the final analysis the mission concluded that the population in mid-1975 is probably slightly above 5 million, which is more than 15 percent above the official estimates. Population growth may be close to 2.7 percent, the average for West Africa. Regarding migration figures, the sample surveys have too many inconsistencies and biases to be used to indicate anything more than broad magnitudes and trends. In Spring 1975 the Bureau of StatiIstics launched its first full population census. By 1977 we may be sure of many trends and figures which now have to be put forward on a tentative basis. However, the results may come too late to be used in the Plan currently under preparation. This report has for this reason 1/ United Nations, "Situation Demographique et Economique au Senegal", 1970. 2/ L. Verriere, "La Population du Senegal", 1966. 3/ Roseau, Annales de Geographie "La Population du Senegal en 1926". - 3 - tried to build a picture on the basis of the incomplete data available at this moment. Most of the tables are therefore not consistent with our higher population estimates. B. Regional Distribution and Densities 6. A superficial observer could easily conclude that Senegal has no population problem. Vast areas in the southeast are hardly populated and official estimates give a low overall population density of 24 persons per square kilometer or about 37 persons per km2 of arable land. But such impressions and indices are almost meaningless in the Sahel region to which Senegal belongs. Aboui: half of farmers live under marginal conditions crowded together in the groundnut basin where possibilities for yield in- creases are limited by the dry climate. In the south and southeast rainfall conditions are more favorable and would seem to allow for much higher popula- tion densities. However, in the valleys endemic diseases have kept population down, and the often fertile plateaux have been largely uninhabitable by lack of drinking water. Senegal should, therefore, not be placed in the category of countries without a Land constraint. The ratio of population to usable land is uneven and demographic growth can only be absorbed by steady progress towards developing new agricultural techniques and arable land. 7. Six more-or-less homogeneous geographical zones can be distin- guished in Senegal, but since statistics have an administrative base this report has to use the seven provinces (Cap-Vert, Casamance, Diourbel, Fleuve, Senegal-Oriental, Sine-Saloum and Thies) as a proxy for the geographical zones. The following paragraph introduces the different geographical zones which are discussed in detail in later chapters. 8. The first and most urbanized zone of Senegal is the axis from Dakar, situated at Africa's extreme west point, to Thies, roughly 50 km in the interior. This zone will be described with the demographic data of the province Cap Vert, leaving out the city of Thies. The second geographical zone is the groundnut basin, which is defined as the strip of land east of Cap-Vert between the 600-and 800-mm isohyet stretching roughly 200 km into the interior. A characteristic of this region is its dependence on groundnut and millet cultivation. In this report the groundnut basin is sparsely populated pastoral zone further to the northeast; (ii) the pro- vince Thies, whose western part is already linked with the urban economy of Cap Vert; and (iii) the province of Sine Saloum, half of which benefits from 800 to 1,100 mm of rainfall allowing for some agricultural diversification. A third geographic zone is composed of Senegal's major valleys, listed in north-south order: the Senegal river, the .Sine-Saloum river system, the Gambia river and the Casamance. Only the Senegal river valley can be identi- fied with a province, that of Fleuve. This most northern province includes a desert-like part of the pastoral zone. The Casamance valley is part of Casamance province which is separated from the rest of Senegal by the enclave state, The Gambia. Although groundnuts are still the major crop in Casamance, this province distinguishes itself from the rest of Senegal by possibilities for agricultural diversification, thanks to annual rainfalls between 1,000 and 1,600 mm. The fourth geographical zone is the underdeveloped area in the southeast of the country, which includes the Senegal-Oriental province and the eastern part of Casamance. In the following analysis Senegal-Oriental is considered representative of this geographical zone although this province also includes the city of Bakel on the Senegal river with a type of economy and strong outward migration typical of the river valley. A fifth zone, the coastal strip, with rich fishing grounds and underground fresh water reserves, could not be separated out in the Statistics; nor could the sixth zone which is the pastoral zone mentioned above. 9. Senegal's popu,lation is unevenly distributed over the different provinces although Sine-Saloum contains the largest proportion of the total population and the Senegal-Oriental the lowest. However, when allowance is made for the differences in area, the Cap-Vert region, where the capital city Dakar is located, emerges not suprisingly as the densest (1,540 persons per km2). Senegal-Oriental not only has the lowest proportion of the total population, but also the lowest density (less than 5 persons per km2). In general, the density of population decreases systematically as one moves away from the Atlantic coast. Table 1: TOTAL POPULATION OF SENEGAL BY REGIONS AND DENSITY, 1975 Total Estimated Population Percent Percentage Population Densit Regions (1,000) Distribution Urbanization /2 Growth /1 per km Senegal 4,418 /1 100 32 2.3 /1 24 /1 Cap-Vert 770 17 100 4.4 1,540 Casamance 699 16 13 1.5 25 Diourbel 712 16 14 2.3 21 Fleuve 440 10 22 1.2 10 Oriental 276 6 10 4.9 5 Sine-Saloum 902 21 11 0.9 38 Thies 619 14 29 2.9 94 /1 Low estimates, derived by United Nations from population sample surveys. /2 1970.71. 10. The level of urbanization in Senegal is high compared with other countries in Africa or LDC's in general. In 1970/71, about 30 percent of the total population was living in towns of 10,000 people or more, of which nearly two-thirds were in the capital city of Dakar. An additional 14 percent lived in semi-urban areas (1,000 to 9,999 people), communities which have the characteristics of large rural villages. The rest of the population generally lived in villages of an average 150 population. In most parts of the country the rural population is organized in family groups called "carres" composed of the "chef de carre", his younger brothers and the children. A carre - 5 - normally consists of four to five family units with each family unit averaging about six people (or a total of 25 to 30 persons). C. Ethnic Groups 11. Some 90 percent of Senegals' African population belong to six major ethnic groups: Wolof, Serer, Peul, Toucoleur, Diola and Manding. The Wolof is by far the largest accounting for 40 percent of the population. Few Wolof, Serer, or Diola live outside Senegal. Many Toucouleur do, but the great majority live in Senegal. The Manding, Bambara and Soninke are groupings whose main centers are found primarily in neighboring countries. The 500,000 Peul (referred to as Fulani in Anglophone countries) are spread across the more arid parts of Western Africa and are estimated at 7 million in total. Table 2: Ethnic Groups (in percent of total population) 1960 1970 Wolof 36.2 40.5 Serer 19.0 16.0 Peul (= Fulbe = Fulani) /1 ouler Manding, Bambara 6.4 8.6 T1 Soninke 2.1 )37 Others 7.8 ) TOTAL 100.0 100.0 /1 Includes some assimilated immigrants. Source: Senegal handbook and 1970/71 demographic survey. 12. Most Wolof live in Diourbel, Thies and Sine-Saloum which together constitute the northern and central groundnut basin. The Serer live mostly in the southern part of Sine-Saloum, which is the southern groundnut basin. The Toucouleur live along the Senegal River in the Fleuve Region, though they do not extend into the delta area. The Diola live in west Casamance, the Manding in the southeastern part of the country while Peul are scattered all over Senegal. 13. A long history of intermingling and intermarriage has made ethnicity of much less importance in Senegal than elsewhere. In contrast with many other African countries, caste and class often override ethnic affiliations. Another reason for so much less interethnic rivalry may also be the fact that in Senegal the proportion of the population who live in towns (30 percent) is much higher than the average for Africa. An additional reason may be the - 6 - unifying influence of thE proportionately large muslim population. Even among Serer only some 15 percent are Christians (though the proportion among highly educated Serer is much higher, which is why it is often mistakenly said that the Serer are predominantly Christian). Many Senegalese say that ethni- city has little bearing on behavior patterns and that official policy is to foster national loyalty rather than to dwell on ethnic differences. This may be true, but the fact remains that in a migration study ethnicity is too im- portant to be overlooked. 14. The Wolof are not only the largest group, but also economically the most dynamic. Their language is the lingua franca in towns and mixed villages. Many Serer have chosen to call themselves Wolof, which might explain the shift in their share of the population between the 1960/61 and 1970/71 surveys. But, in general, ethnic groups have preserved their own languages. Even in Dakar there are a number of distinct ethnic quarters. For example in one quarter virtually everyone is Diola. There is even some measure of occupational specialization by ethnic groups. In rural areas the Wolof and Serer are main- ly involved in groundnut production but with some differences in technology which will be discussed in a later section. The Peul were once nomadic herds- men, and while they all continue to be primarily pastoralists, the majority are now settled and interspersed with the other ethnic groups. Insofar as they migrate they do so only seasonally in search of pastures for their cattle or because of droughts. Recent droughts wiped out 15 to 25 percent of their herds, and they themselves had to seek refuge wherever they could. The integration of the Peul with other ethnic groups is usually somewhat less than among ethnic groups living in the same area because of recurrent conflicts between the Peul and farmers over the presence of the former's cattle near cultivated Eields. 15. Marked differences exist in the degree of urbanization according to ethnic groups. With less than a third of the total population living in towns, 40 percent of the Wolof reside in cities, but only 20 percent of the Serer. The majority of the urbanized Serer and Wolof live in the Cap Vert region which is adjacent to their region of origin. Part of this difference in degree of urbanization can be explained by the tendency of some Serer to register as Wolof, but the difference is too large not to indicate a basic difference in behavior. Dakar itself was originally Lebou territory, a fishing people, who managed to maintain a relatively important role in this modern town despite their small numbers. Out of the 27 percent urbanized Toucouleur a vast majority also lives in Cap Vert due to the long standing Toucouleur migration to Dakar. Notwithstanding these high proportions, about half of the population of Cap Vert is Wolof, while the Toucouleur and Serer represent-respectively only 21 and 11 percent of Cap Vert's total population. D. International Migration 16. Although the volume of international migration is not precisely known, it is safe to assume that it has had only a marginal influence on Senegal's population. At present, the number of immigrants in Senegal is - 7 - estimated to be about 355,000 of which 300,000 are from other African coun- tries and 55,000 are from outside Africa many of them from France. The number of SenegalesE- emigrants is estimated to be about 210,000 of which 175,000 are living in other countries in Africa and 35,000 in non-African countries, principally France. This gives a net immigration balance of about 145,000 people. It must, however, be remembered that these figures include children of migrants born after the date of migration and that the period of migration could extend from zero to 30 or 40 or more years. Estimates of the number of Senegalese living abroad and foreigners living in Senegal therefore, cannot provide a basis for measuring the impact of migration on the current rate of population growth, but the magnitude of the numbers indicate its marginal importance. 17. Over the last 10 years, however, the effect of international migra- tion on total population growth is most likely to have been positive. The number of immigrants increased from about 129,000 in 1960 to about 222,000 in 1970. Taking into consideration deaths among the immigrants, these figures imply a net immigration of about 114,000 persons during 1960-70, or an average gain of 11,400 persons per year. 18. The little information available on emigration flows indicates that the annual net outflow has been lower than suggested by the number of Senegalese living abroad. Since 1960 when the former French Sudan was dissolved into a number of independent states, quite a large number of civil servants must have returned to their homelands. More recently, in 1972, the Government of Zaire requested the large number of Senegalese immi- grants residing there to repatriate. For these specific reasons backflows must have been considerable. In 1973, 26,000 Senegalese were living in The Gambia, but over the preceding 10-year period this number had increased by only 400 people a year. The largest emigration over the last 10 years was probably to France, growing from negligible numbers in 1960 to 30,000 in 1975, and to Ivory Coast where about 50,00 Senegalese reside. Difficult to assess are the movements of Toucouleurs and Peuls who live on both sides of Senegal's border; since there are no apparent reasons for net emigration of these groups the historical distribution over the different African countries must be assumed to have been maintained over the last 15 years. 19. Senegal is obviously not part of West Africa's predominant migra- tion pattern from the arid regions in the north to the tropical zones in the south. The Arab orientation and differing ethnic background of Senegal's northern neighbors, and the different political systems that the bordering countries in the south .used to have are factors that explain the absence of substantial north-south movements. West Africa's second major migration pattern - from the interior to the coast - has manifested itself in Senegal mostly as a domestic migration flow. The direction of international migra- tion by Africans through Senegal has been as follows: of the 220,000 who were born in an African country outside Senegal the largest number of immi- grants came through the country's southern borders -- about 75,000 from Guinea Bissau; 57,000 from Guinea; and 33,000 from The Gambia which is surrounded by Senegalese territory. These numbers represented a significant propor- tion of the population in the smaller countries of emigration. For example, - 8 - the immigrants from Guinea Bissau represented about 15 percent of the popula- tion of that country; immigrants from The Gambia constituted 7 percent of the population of that country in 1970. Of the emigrants who left Senegal, 50,000 were in Ivory Coast, 25,000 each in Benin and The Gambia, 20,000 each in Mauritania and Guinea, 15,000 in Mali and 20,000 in other countries. 20. There is some question whether the recent high migration rate into Senegal is a permanent feature or not. The droughts of the late 1960's and early 1970's became a disaster in countries all along the southern fringe of the Sahara and brought movements which may reverse now that weather condi- tions have improved. Moreover, migration stemming from the recently concluded war for independence in Guinea Bissau and political and economic problems in Guinea may be temporary. Sporadic reports indicated that by 1965 about 35,000 people had crossed into Senegal from Guinea Bissau, and news reports indicated that this figure had risen to 82,000 by 1973. 21. African immigrants are distributed unevenly within Senegal. More than 46 percent have settled in Casamance and represent about 16 percent of the total population of this southern province. The recently ended war of independence in Guinea Bissau and the kinship of population on the two sides of the frontier E!Xplain this situation. Only 11 percent of the immi- grants have settled in Senegal Oriental but this group represents an even higher percentage (17 percent) of the province's total population. Cap Vert and Sine-Saloum have each received 17 percent of African immigration which is negligible compared to the total population in the region. Dakar seems to be the preferred place by immigrants from Mali and Mauritania. However, Mauritanian shopkeepers are found in villages all over Senegal. 22. The number of non-Africans in Senegal rose rapidly from about 20,000 in the late 1940's to 61,000 in 1960/61. In the early 1960's their numbers declined, so that by 1970/71 they were about 55,000 of which 30,000 to 40,000 were Europeans and about 15,000 to 20,000 were Lebanese. 1/ Over 75 percent of them now live in Dakar and 64 percent of the men work in com- merce or other serviceS. 23. Of all residents born outside the country, 57 percent live in rural communities and 12 percent in towns under 10,000 inhabitants. These high percentages, however, are almost exclusively due to foreigners of African origin. This group accounts for only 0.6 percent of the population of Cap Vert and must therefore not be considered an important factor in the urban drift. Of foreigners in rural areas about half lived in Casamance, 24 percent in Sine-Saloum and 16 percent in Senegal Oriental. F. Internal Migration flows 24. The Senegalese appear to be an extremely mobile people, moving seasonally, cyclically and secularly in response to different economic conditions. At the time of the 1970/71 survey as many as 503,000 persons or 1/ Area handbook for Senegal, 1974. -9- 15 percent of the total population in the country was living in a region different from the one in which they were born. This mobility has been acquired under the pressure of a harsh climate. As we see later, values and traditions to cope with the regular crises have developed in the regions with the highest risk factors. Ability to move ranked high among the tools of survival. The next few paragraphs describe how the three types of migration mentioned above present themselves in the case of Senegal. 25. Seasonal mobility in Senegal is induced by a long dry period in which agricultural activity gradually comes to a complete standstill for a five-month period. Seeding is compressed into a very short period in June to allow for sufficient growing time. Weeding is concentrated into the first half of the three to four-month growing season. In the drier parts of the country, the farm cannot: sustain for a full year all the manpower needed in the peak season, and part of the agricultural population has to find secondary income during the dry season. This pattern leads to a short "pull" for agricultural manpower around June and a "push" during January/May when the harvest is done. Activity in the cities is largely counter-seasonal. During the summer months the schools are closed and many offices in Dakar are in low gear because of vacations. Also, expatriates usually take their home leave during this period and release their servants. A new anti-seasonal factor is tourism, which flourishes in winter and has its low in the hot summer months. The consequence of rural push coinciding with urban pull in the winter, and rural pull occurring at the same time as urban push during the "hivernage" in summer, is a substantial temporary rural-urban migration. As is shown later, this typical Sahel phenomenon is of major importance for all questions related to migration and urban drift. 26. From the 1970/71 survey it can be concluded that every year 12 to 15 percent of the Senegalese are on the move, of whom roughly one third cross provincial boundaries. Since the 1970/71 survey was done in three stages covering the same groups of families with intermissions of about half a year, some further analyses of this type of seasonal migration can be done. 1/ The first stage of the Survey coincided with one of the worst crop failures in the history of Senegal which may explain the low number of transients (see footnote under table 3) in that period. But also for the normal summer of 1971, the survey found that the number of "passagers" in rural areas was equal or lower between May and November (the wet season) than between November and May (the dry season). The only exception is Casamance which has a more year-round type of agriculture. One could conclude from this evidence that the push from the agricultural sector during the dry season is more important than the pull during the wet season. However, it should be borne 1/ In the second stage 26 percent of the transients ("passagers") recorded during the first stage were still in the same location; in the third stage 46 percent of the "passagers" recorded during the second stage were still in the same location. Thus an important part of the "passa- gers" were non-seasonal migrants, about 4 to 5 percent of the total population every year. - 10 - 1/ Table 3: Number of "Passagers" by place of origin/ (in thousands) Place of Origin Residence Stage Cap Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Oriental S-S Thies Total Eap Vert 1 6.0 1.7 6.8 3.5 0.5 5.0 6.6 30.1 2 45.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 0.9 8.6 9.4 81.9 3 27.3 1.7 3.4 3.8 0.3 4.2 2.8 43.5 Casamance 1 1.5 1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.4 2 2.4 29 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 34.1 3 2.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 41.6 Diourbel 1 1.9 0.1 7.2 0.9 0.1 1.8 0.6 12.6 2 2.5 0.4 26.7 1.1 0.2 3.4 1.4 35.7 3 1.9 0.2 18.2 0.7 0.1 1.5 1.4 24.0 Fleuve 1 0.7 0.1 0.8 7.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 9.9 2 2.7 0.2 2.1 14.7 0.2 0.7 1.3 21.9 3 2.1 0.3 0.9 9.2 0.0 0.6 0.4 13.5 Oriental 1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 3.7 0.4 0.1 5.1 2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.7 13.6 0.6 0.0 16.4 3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 11.9 0.7 0.3 14.1 Sine-Saloum 1 1.6 0.6 4.4 0.9 0.8 15.9 1.7 25.9 2 3.1 0.9 5.9 1.5 1.0 54.6 1.5 68.5 3 4.3 0.9 4.2 1.0 3.1 53.4 2.0 68.9 Thies 1 4.1 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.2 6 14.5 2 4.8 0.4 3.8 1.2 0.4 3.0 25.3 38.9 3 3.4 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.0 2.6 14.9 23.8 Ij A "passager" is defined as a person being in his present residence for less than 6 months. In the next stage of the strvey, six months later, he has either moved again or is counted as a permanent resident. 2/ The 1970/71 survey was done in three stages, interviewing the same families in every round. The first stage was held between May and November 1970; the second stage between November 1970 and May 1971; the third stage between May and November 1971. - 11 - in mind that the peak demand for agricultural labor is a matter of three to four weeks, much shorter than the full six months of the survey. 27. For Cap Vert a more regular picture emerges when comparing the three stages of the survey. Table 3 summarizes the results of the three stages. Only the data on "passagers" are shown since these concern physi- cally counted people. In the table the temporary migration within the regions (indicated in the boxes) is roughly two-thirds of the total. On this basis one would conclude that about 80,000 "passagers" are in Cap Vert during the dry season, and 40,000 during the wet season in the summer which coincides with the slack period for Dakar. 28. In the case of Senegal it is not justifiable nor possible to distinguish sharply between cyclical and secular migration. On the con- trary, all non-seasonal migration must be seen as part of a two-way flow. The main long-term migration flows from the rural to urban areas occur in waves set off by crop failures, low farm prices or booming economic con- ditions in towns. Flows to the country-side occur when crops are good, farm prices high or urban economic conditions depressed. The notion of "temporary" and "permanent" migration should also be used with caution; a large part of temporary migration can probably be explained by unrealized expectations of better economic conditions. Some types of migration appear to be temporary but are in fact part of a permanent cycle. For example the uneducated rural migrant typically moves in small geographical steps, each of which is temporary but together make part of a permanent movement. The same applies to urban migration for schooling. Although temporary in its nature this type of migration almost always becomes permanent since it is in the urban environment that school graduates have the best chance to find jobs. Successful migrants may return to their villages of origin after a number of years to keep claims on land or on traditional functions like that of village head. Since no annual statistics exist on numbers of migrants in Senegal, nor on the duration of individual stays, no quantitive analysis is possible and all non-seasonal migration has to be treated in a single category. 29. The main long-term migration flows are westward towards the Atlantic seaboard, with Dakar as the principal center of attraction. Other places of attraction are the four next largest towns: St. Louis on the Senegal river, Thies close to Dakar, Kaolack on the Saloum, and Zinguinchor on the Casamance river---all in the west of the country. Since the urban centers expand possibilities for secondary.farm products and non-farm in- comes during the dry season, the western part of the country is also more attractive for farmers. 30. Long-term migration can be analyzed by comparing place of residence with place of birth. In 1970, nearly 37 percent of the population of the Cap Vert region was born elsewhere with a fair spread over the different provinces, while only A percent of those who were born in the region lived in other provinces. The iumber of inter-regional migrants in Dakar is nearly half of inter-regional migration for the country as a whole and therefore represents by far the most important long-term flow of people. Next in order - 12 - of importance of in-migration are the Thies and SineSaloum regions, but the proportion of in-migrants in these areas does not exceed 15 percent. On the other hand, the impact of out-migration was greatest in the Fleuve region; in 1970 more than a quarter of the population born in the region had moved out. In the neighboring Diourbel region also the impact of out-migration on the population was significant (20 percent). 31. During the 1960's inter-regional population mobility increased considerably. Comparing the results of the 1960/61 and 1970/71 surveys the proportion of people living in provinces other than where they were born increased from about 11 percent in 1960 to 15 percent in 1970. The ratio increased in all provinces except Sine-Saloum: from 30 to 37 in Cap Vert; 9 to 14 in the neighboring Thies region; and from 0.3 to 9.8 in Senegal- Oriental. The proportion of out-migrants also increased in most regions; from 17 to 26 percent in Fleuve, 5 to 12 percent in Sine-Saloum and 4 to 8 percent in Casamance. Table 4: RATES OF MIGRATION BY REGION FOR THE 1960-71 PERIOD In- Out- Net- Region Migration Migration Migration Cap-Vert 28.5 3.4 25.1 Casamance 1.9 5.3 - 3.4 Diourbel 4.2 8.8 - 4.6 Fleuve 2.1 16.0 -13.9 Senegal-Oriental 13.6 5.8 7.8 Sine-Saloum - 0.7 7.7 - 8.5 Thies 9.6 7.8 1.8 All Regions 7.6 7.6 32. For some regions the demographic development during the sixties represented a break with past trends. Sine-Saloum with 15 percent migrants in its population had a net loss through migration of 58,000 people. This outflow was mainly directed to Cap Vert (25,000) and Thies (12,000). A fairly large.number (9,000) of migrants from this region moved eastward to Senegal-Oriental. These figures indicate a reversal of the migration stream, a reversal which was related to the urban attraction of the Dakar- Thies region (obviously Kaolack the provincial capital of Sine-Saloum could not compete), and a further shift of the "groundnut frontier" which was still in the south of Sine-Saloum shortly after the war, but has since moved to Senegal-Oriental. This shift is also clearly demonstrated by the figures on Senegal-Oriental itself. In 1960/61 this province counted hardly 500 people born outside it. In 1970/71 the number was 22,600. Despite increasing out- migration the population of Senegal Oriental increased over these 10 years by 13,000 people. - 13 - 33. In the other provinces past trends prevailed. Cap-Vert had a net gain of 124,000 people over ten years which represented by far the largest flow in absolute numbers. The net gain of Thies was 8,000 people. Next to Sine-Saloum, Fleuve had the greatest net outflow of 46,000 people. This outflow was mainly directed to Dakar, but about 8,000 went to Senegal- Oriental. Whereas the migration from Sine Saloum into Senegal-Oriental related to expansion of groundnut cultivation, it can be assumed that migra- tion from Fleuve relates to the prosperous zone of Bakel in the northeast corner of Senegal-Oriental which is in fact part of the geographical zone of the Senegal river basin. F. The Senegalese Migrants 34. To understand migration the profile of the migrant should be analyzed and placed against the background of his origin and destination. In this section we group the available information on the characteristics of the Senegalese migrant. This will be completed in later sections by descriptions of the major zones of in- and outward-migration in order to help identify the economic and cultural factors involved. 35. According to recent evidence 1/ their is a positive relationship between urban migration and the level of education. However, in some coun- tries, in particular those where land is scarce, migration is also frequent among the unskilled rural poor leading to a bi-modal distribution in the migration flows. This will be even stronger if rural/rural migation is included. The behavior pattern of each "group" can be explained on the basis of their respective places in society. The unskilled rural migrant is usually very poor and cannot support any economic risk. He moves because he is pushed out of his former existence and does so over relatively short distances, often from one rural area to the other. He is always employed since he has to eat, but because his bargairing power is limited he often has to accept extremely low remuneration. The other "group" of migrants has an above-average education and usually some financial backing. This type of migrant moves because he expects better employment opportunity elsewhere. The higher his education, the better his information on alternatives and the further he moves. Often he has to wait and is unemployed for a period of time, but he has the ability to mobilize enough resources to support himself for a while. This phenomenon is called "waiting-line unemployment". In his new employment his wage and productivity are usually both higher than what he would have obtained in his old environment; this justifies the cost of a certain waiting time. However, he may fail. If the labor market is open and unemployment high, he may accept a job which pays less than his marginal productivity in the area from which he came, in which case labor would be allocated inefficiently. If his employment is in an enclave modern sector or with government he may be paid more than his actual marginal productivity. Such a premium would justify longer waiting I/ Research workshop on rural-urban labor market interactions; Washington, D.C., February 3 to 7, 1976. - 14 - times but might raise the social cost of migration above the social benefits. In the next paragraphs it will be seen that the Senegalese case hardly fits this theoretical model. 36. Most of the rural migrants are poor and uneducated but not without alternatives or financial support. One of the reasons is that Senegalese farmers still can find some land if they are willing to move. Except for the few large estates of the Marabouts, the religious leaders whose economic role is discussed later, land is fairly equally distributed. Traditionally the right to land belonged to the person (or family) who burned the natural vegetation. The family head normally gave permanent user rights to persons who were willing to clear the trees on a piece of this land. In many villages the village chief still has some land to allocate. He gives out land to make his village larger and himself more prestigeous. Membership in the extended family also gives some right to land or to the income of other family members. 37. The majority of the rural/rural migrants are, however, not perma- nent settlers, but people working in a temporary relationship with the farmer. These relationships take two forms. A special case are the "Talibes", who are youngsters givEn to the Marabout for religious education, and who earn their living by working on the Marabouts' fields. More common are temporary workers who are fed by the farmer and get some land to use plus the necessary tools and animals in exchange for a number of days' work on the farm. Since the worker is there for a short time only, he usually sells his crop to the farmer. If the temporary labor originates from another ethnic group (usually non-Senegalese) he is called "Navetane"; if he belongs to the same ethnic group he is called "Sourgha". With the increasing mobility of people this distinction is becoming more vague. 38. If married people have previously worked as Sourghas in the less populated regions they sometimes go back and ask the village head for some land of their own and to stay. Most Sourghas are, however, unmarried and come to earn the.dowry for their bride. This system is, in some traditional communities, reinforced by a custom which denies rights of land to any un- married man or which connects full manhood to a period of working as a Sourgha. The system ensures that the elder people in the village either get the work of the young generation or the cash from the dowry. 39. The capacity of farmers to use temporary labor depends not only on the size of their land but - since they have to feed the workers - also on the stock of food that is left over after the dry season. In completely monetized regions the farmer may buy this food, but in most cases he tries to store sufficient millet. When a region becomes over-populated the farmer may get into a situation where he cannot even feed his own family during the last months before the new crop comes in. This can play an important role in migration decisions. Crop failures, mostly because of droughts, bring marginal situations to an immediate crisis. 40. If land is becoming scarce and the farmer cannot feed his family the full year he, or members of his family, have to look for a secondary - 15 - income in other sectors during the dry season, or for permanent migration. If they decide to go to the town they are often helped with shelter, jobs and immediate necessities by relatives living there. Help in the provision of shelter is reflected in the reproduction of ethnic communities in Dakar. Assistance in finding jobs is reflected in ethnic concentrations in certain occupations as, for example, newspaper selling (Toucouleur) and housework (Diola). This support allows the migrant to be without employment for some time, which gives him greater bargaining power in the job market. On the other hand members of extended families in the towns can usually come back to the village and count on subsistence and shelter. This produces a two-way stream of people and income transfers which broadens the economic base of the group. 41. Some observers relate the need for migration to the influence of the market economy. Groundnut cultivation gave the farmer a cash income which allowed him to buy manufactured goods. However, as a consequence the farmer tended to neglect millet, his food crop, while the penetration of manufactured goods destroyed local handicrafts, reducing the period of productive work to five to six months a year. According to this view, hunger and unemployment drove the farmer to Dakar. Although some of the foregoing may be true, it should not be forgotten that living standards in villages not touched by the market economy were, and still are, very low and that local handicrafts hardly contributed to the economy. The modernization which accompanies the possibility of earning some cash in- come also brought new possibilities for handicrafts--mainly for housing, furniture and repair of tools. It is evident that the penetration of a money economy will change the society and may cause people to move, but it does not necessarily follow that it would be to their disadvantage. 42. Contrary to what the theoretical model set out in para. 31 suggests, the mechanisms of urban migration in Senegal are very similar for both the lower and higher educated migrant. Both categories can get support from their village of origin or from relatives already established in town. The most likely difference between the educated and uneducated urban migrants, although this could not be tested, is that the educated will have less inclination to return to the countryside. Education of the classical type can therefore be an important cause of urban unemployment. In Senegal - except for St. Louis - this problem has not yet assumed large proportions. 'The adult literacy rate was only 10 percent in 1970. Secon- dary education reached only 15 percent of the relevant age group. On the other hand, the modern sector has been growing by 3 to 4 percent annually during the last five years, creating still sufficient new jobs each year for this particular group. The number of rural people with secondary educa- tion is still too low to influence migration flows significantly. 43. Some evidence can be found in the population surveys that migra- tion of people who would qualify for the modern sector is still very low. About 85 percent of the migrants who had been in their present residence for less than six months had no more than a few years of religious educa- tion or no formal education at all; more than half had an agricultural - 16 - background. An insignificant number (3 percent) had secondary education or more. Finally, the share of inter-regional migration (which can be used as a proxy for long distance migration) out of total short-term migra- tion was about equal for all levels of education (about 35 percent). This supports the view that Education in the rural areas is so scarce that the higher educated can easily find better paid jobs in their own regions. The relevant factor in inter-regional migration turns out to be the degree of urbanization. Lower educated people, in particular, more often cross re- gional frontiers if they are urbanized (about 45 percent) than if they are completely rural (about 35 percent). This profile disappears for those with primary education or more. 44. A good part of migration is done by young unmarried people. Once they are settled they marry and raise a family. Married migrants often leave wives and children in the rural areas where they live cheaply and produce their own food. Only if the migrant is successful does he send for his family. Particularly in Cap Vert, migrants under 15 were a much lower percen- tage of the total migrant population than the share of their age group in the total population. Only for Fleuve was the difference not too large. This may indicate that the inflow of population in that province is of a type that implies less economic risk, which is the case for backflows from other areas or movements of:nomads in the pastoral zone of Fleuve. 45. Most migration appears to be related to desires for better income. The relatively low percentages of "passagers" that,give jobs as motivation for their move (30% in the first stage, 13% in the second, and 20% in the third stage of the survey) is inconclusive evidence. Since an average farm house- hold consists of six people the "job" may be the main motivation for a re- latively small number, while the others will say they come for family reasons. One should also bear in mind that a relatively large group of mi- grants who are trying to get a job in town are living temporarily at the expense of family members and may prefer to give a more personal touch to the reasons of their stay. The same applies to those who go back to the villages. Most of them have some productive activity and will stay if they can improve their situation. We are therefore inclined to add the majority of the 60 to 80 percent of migrants who say they move for family reasons to the category of people who move for economic reasons. 46. It appears from the mission's observations that migration as it occurs in Senegal is mostly determined by income possibilities at the margin rather than by the differences in the average of rural and urban incomes. People attracted by the higher average income in the modern sector must have some grounds to think they may qualify for modern sector jobs. This expectation is usually derived from family background or education. As explained in para. 32, such migration would give rise to "waiting-line" unemployment of which no strong evidence was found. On the contrary, for the higher educated we found no particular indication to move over regional frontiers. Uneducated migrants may have some hope for modern sector employ- ment but know they do not qualify and have to accept the income possibilities which the informal section offers. If the possibilities in the - 17 - informal sector decline the migration inflows would decrease and outflows increase. In Senegal, travel distances are quite short, and the inter-regional network of extended families provides fairly accurate information on the different labor markets in the country. Right of land does not seem to count as a reason for immobility. Although hard to prove with quantitative evidence, all indications are that the population responds to small changes in income opportunities. G. Income Incentives 47. The main determinants of migration are generally accepted to be income and employment opportunities, and a host of institutional factors. The latter are dealt with in the section on the regions. Although the income data are weak in Senegal and give limited possibility for analysis, some interest- ing conclusions may be derived from them. 48. Calculations of farm income show a rising scale when going from the north of the country to the south, corresponding to the anual amount of rainfall. Calculated on the main crops alone the following pattern emerges: Table 5: Average annual per capita income from the main crops as derived from farm budgets (current 1975 prices) Fleuve 14,000 CFAF Northern Groundnut Basin 13,000 CFAF Central Groundnut Basin 15,000 CFAF Southern Groundnut Basin 31,000 CFAF Eastern Senegal 14,000 CFAF Casamance 25,000 CFAF SOURCE: Agricultural sector report. The figures found in this calculation are particularly low and in many cases close to absolute poverty estimated by the Bank at about CFAF 15,000. Although the Senegalese rural population is poor by all standards, no large groups are living on the brink of starvation. This indicates that substantial sources of secondary income must be available from smaller food crops, cattle or other sources. Analysis of the large regional differences leads to the same conclu- sion. The difference between the central and southern parts of the groundnut basin is more-than 100 percent. This seems to be inconsistent with the observed living standards. The same applies to the high farm income in Casamance. The large out-migration from these provinces is apparently determined by other factors such as the impact of light mechanization in Sine-Saloum and insuffi- cient opportunities for cash revenue in Casamance. The low average for eastern Senegal may be explained by the primitive state of agriculture in many parts of that province. The migrant groundnut farmer in the Oriental province who - 18 - has brought along his improved technology is known to have a substantially higher income than farmers in the over-populated parts of the groundnut basin. 49. The National Accounts give some indication of income. An estimate of regional income can be made by splitting the value added of rural produc- tion according to the quantities produced by region and by dividing these regional totals through the rural population. This was done for a year of drought, and a year of good rainfall. Table 6: Agricultural income per capita as derived from the National Account estimates (CFAF) 1970/71 1971/72 Fleuve 24,000 30,000 Diourbel 12,000 24,000 Thies 21,000 38,000 Sine-Saloum 17,000 27,000 Eastern Senegal 10,000 16,000 Casamance 18,000 22,000 Senegal 18,000 27,000 The National Accounts estimates are all substantially higher than the income estimates based on farm budgets especially considering the 50 percent infla- tion between the early 1.970's and 1975. According to the National Accounts rural production other than from the main crops adds up to roughly half of the total. These other rural activities include cattle farming, fisheries and forestry. The additional production is unevenly distributed over the regions. Fruit:and vegetables are important in Cap Vert, Thies and Fleuve. Cattle is concentrated in Casamance, Diourbel and Fleuve. Fishing adds to the average agricultural income in Casamance, Fleuve, Sine- Saloum and Thies. 50. The three "groundnut" provinces come out as highly risky for the farmers, but in good years per capita income exceeds the average for Casamance. As can be expected, the risks are highest in Diourbel, the most northern province of the groundnut basin. The risks are smallest in Casamance where droughts are rare and where the river provides a permanent source of rural income. 51. It is questionable whether the risk factor plays an important role in permanent migration. The societies that live in high risk areas have a pattern of life that discounts this factor. Herdsmen are highly mobile and move their cattle to the south in case of drought. Farmers survive by storing sufficient millet and migrate temporarily to earn an income outside - 19 - agriculture when they run out of stocks. When droughts are too frequent, like five years ago, farmers start to abandon the land. Between 1965/68 and 1969/73 the cultivated area fell by 8 percent for millet and 10 percent for groundnuts despite natural demographic growth of about 2 percent a year. From statistics on distribution of groundnut seeds it is evident that in 1975 much of the abandoned land was reoccupied. In 1975, seed distribution reached a record level of 126 thousand tons compared to 90 thousand in 1970. H. Participation Rates 52. Differences in the participation rates are striking. The low rates in Cap Vert (34 percent) and Thies (36 percent) are largely explained by the availability of formal employment in these provinces which often reduces female participation and by the higher school enrollment. 1/ The same low percentages are found for Diourbel (31 percent) and Fleuve (28 percent). Part of the explanation may be in the outward migration from these areas, which in turn leads to a stream of secondary income, and would thus allow for the very low (9 to 12 percent) female participation in these provinces. However, we should not overlook the possibility that the dominance of orthodox muslim values in these two regions may have created a different division of labor between men and women or simply biased the answers to the survey's question- naire. Participation rates were much higher in Casamance (52 percent), Sine Saloum (52 percent) and Senegal Oriental (47 percent) where female partici- pation in agriculture was more than a third of the active population. 53. Seasonal unemployment takes on dramatic proportions in the ground- nut basin. The 1970/71 survey recorded the number of unemployed in the agricultural labor force at 78 percent for Diourbel, 86 percent for Sine Saloum and 66 percent for Thies; whereas the average for the other provinces was about a third of the agricultural labor force. The unemployment rates were about equal for the different age groups and only slightly higher for women than for men. In the crop season labor is a constraint except for the overpopulated regions in the central groundnut basin. 54. In 1970/71 non-agricultural unemployment was estimated between 56,000 and 73,000 or roughly 11 to 14 percent of the non-agricultural labor force. Registered urban unemployment was only 6 percent but since the labor office can only satisfy about 20 percent of the demand for jobs, many people who know themselves to be unqualified for modern sector employment do not register. Even the figures derived from the survey should be treated with caution. Much of urban income is generated outside formal employment and many of the "unemployed" are in fact working in the informal sector. 1/ Senegal includes children from 6 to 14 years old in the labor force. - 20 - II. THE REGIONS A. Groundnut Basin 55. The groundnut basin became what it is by the reactions of the two major ethnic groups in the area--the Wolof and Serer--to the penetrating western market economy. This history started in the middle of the nineteenth century when the French introduced groundnut cultivation in the area between Saint Louis and Dakar, the territory of the Wolofs. The colonial authorities concentrated on this cash crop by organizing it and providing infrastructure. By doing so, they created the possibility for the Wolofs to move out of a primitive subsistence economy. With the construction of the railways, ground- nut cultivation spread further. Whenever soils began to give lower yields, the Wolof groundnut faraers pushed out into the interior cultivating in- creasingly larger surfaces there. 56. Of prime importance to the present socioeconomic structure of the area has been the creation of muslim brotherhoods. These brotherhoods are the outgrowth of the resistance to French cultural influence combined with acceptance of the economic advantages of the cash crop. Most signifi- cant of them are the Mourides. Out of the 1.4 million Wolofs about 400,000 are Mouride adherents; the remainder mostly belong to other brotherhoods of which the Tijani is the largest and of about equal strength in the southern part of the groundnut basin. The influence of the Mourides is, however, disproportionate to their number. They produce approximately one-quarter of Senegal's total groundnut crop. Most of this is grown on small peasant farms, although some is produced on large estates belonging to the Mouride leaders, making these men among the richest and most powerful in the country. 57. The Mouride movement started in the second half of the 19th century with the withdrawal of Cheik Amadou Bambo, the founder of the brotherhood, to the barren interior of Senegal where he created the town of Touba, now the capital of the brotherhood. The great economic impact of the Mourides is attributable in part to the emphasis which Cheik Amadou Bambo laid on the importance of work as a means of salvation. The Mouride philosophy is in a sense akin to the Protestant ethic of Calvin and Luther with which it is frequently compared, but it differs in that it places special emphasis on the virtues of agricultural work. It is this feature of the Mouride ethic which helps to explain the group's agricultural colonization eastwards, the trek to the Department of Kaffrine in the Sine-Saloum region in the 1930s and 1940s, and the more recent rush to the "newlands" in Senegal-Oriental. However, it must not be forgotten that the principal reason for these movements has been the economic pressure exerted by a rising population combined with very poor, dry soil which was quickly exhausted by intensive groundnut production. 57. One special feature of Mouridism are the so-called daras, or cooperative work groups of young men. These are units of colonization - 21 - headed by a spiritual leader, the marabout, 1/ which have taken the Mouride movement into hitherto unoccupied areas, or areas used only for grazing by Peul herdsmen on the fringes of the Ferlo Desert. Conditions on these daras were formerly extremely arduous. They were usually isolated, at consider- able distances from the nearest human habitation or from the nearest source of fresh water. In their quest for unoccupied land, they deliberately sought out places where no wells had been dug and where regular habitation was therefore impossible for those who were not, as they were, "capable of physical endurance, well organized, determined, and sustained by a vigo- rous faith." 2/ They resembled in this sense the early kibbuzim of Palestine. The daras were regarded as an institution in which an adolescent attained full manhood--something akin to an initiation rite, replacing warfare which had long had that role in many parts of Africa. Later, wherever railways were to be built, Mourides installed themselves in the areas through which the line was to pass so that they might be the first to benefit. 59. Contemporary daras are more prosaic. Instead of producing only millet, needed for survival, the daras now also produce groundnuts. There are probably some 300 - 400 daras each consisting typically of about a dozen disciples (Talibes); about 25 of them are very large. Adult followers contribute also by working a number of days on the marabout's fields. Young men volunteer to join but some are so young that it is really their parents who have volunteered on their behalf. After some years, normally in their mid-twenties, the men are released and, as they often come from poor families their hope is that the reward for years of loyal service will be sufficient money to marry and, even more important, a plot of land. According to tradi- tional and modern law, once the land has been given, the marabout cannot take it back until the occupant leaves. 60. The provision of small-holdings for those who have served their time on a dara, however:, has posed a problem in areas where there is little uncultivated land left. Generally such small-holdings have to be carved out of the dara land thus gradually diminishing its size. This acts, of course, as a propellant for further colonization, but the areas in which this is possible are becoming rapidly filled up. One remaining area is the Orientale region, where the Wolof are competing for land with Serer. Later into this century, Mourides as well as other Wolofs started to look to the towns, and today the Wolof as a whole constitute the largest single group of town-dwellers just as they are the biggest group in the population at large. This urban migration necessarily took some momentum out of groundnut expan- sion. I/ The Marabout does not own these farms; rather he exercises all the owner rights on behalf of the group. 2/ (Cruise O'Brien 1971 p. 165-166). - 22 - 61. The Mourides, and the Wolof generally, are said to be poor farmers who 'mine' the land and leave it derelict. This assertion should however be seen in an historical context. The northern and central groundnut basin form part.of the Sahel where the soil is naturally sandy, permeable, poor in humus and without water-retaining power. If one remembers that farmers have been constantly urged for the last 60 years or more to increase the production of groundnuts at a time when soil protection techniques were not yet in use, it is little wonder that soils have become exhausted. Fresh land was always to be had and it made sense therefore to move on when after some years of intensive groundnut cultivation yields began to decline. Now that the supply of new land has become 'Largely exhausted this practice is no longer feasible, but the agricultural habits of the Mourides have changed. In the technical field, mouridism has developed into a progressive force. Traditional beliefs are less of a hindrance to the introduction of new techniques of production, and their hierarchical organization has facilitated the propagation of tech- nical information on the use of fertilizers and farm machinery. Both the French colonial administration and the present Government have actively enlisted the Mourides' support and provided their leaders with loans and technical assistance for agricultural improvements, as the Govern- ment does for all farmers. 62. In an economic analysis the marabouts leaders could be pictured as entrepreneurs. They innovate production techniques, represent a strong pressure group in the groundnut sector, and employ paid seasonal workers to complement the work of their followers. They accumulate substantial savings which are used partly to provide their followers with some social security but are also reinvested in production ventures. As far as migration is concerned, the brotherhoods have the organization and the pioneer spirit to be extremely efficient. The Government's cooperative approach towards agricul- ture can be reconciled with the system of the brotherhoods, but opposing views exist on the role of the family and public education. The educa- tional system in the brotherhood is collective and religiously oriented with the benefits of productive work by the youngsters accruing to the brotherhood. This type of education gives the youngsters little exposure to the quickly modernizing society. 63. The Serer reacted quite differently to the introduction of ground- nuts. This group has integrated groundnut cultivation into an ecologically balanced system of mixed farming. Part of the land is kept in fallow and manured during the night by cattle grazing in the forest or in cultivable salinated fields during the day. Fruits and leaves of the cod tree--which reaches its most northern limit in Serer country--is used to feed the cattle at the end of the dry season. Contrary to the more northern regions, soil fertility is maintained by this system and Serer families can live off less cultivable land than their Wolof compatriots in the north. Ample opportunity for fishing in the region contributes to the solid economic base of the Serer society. 64. The Serer were not motivated to migrate. They retained self- sufficiency by keeping one to two-year supplies of millet in stock which - 23 - carried them through the bad years. Efforts of the French administration to move them to the east in order to increase the groundnut area did not succeed. Eventually WoLof moved into the new villages vacated by the Serer who returned to their original villages; sometimes, the village head was the only Serer who stayed. The Serer have accepted western education more readily than the Wolof. Enrollment rates in Fatick, the most populous Serer district, are the highest in the country. Health services have been rela- tively good and been partly responsible for raising the population growth rate to 2.3 percent a year, well above the rural average of 1.9 percent. 1 The district of Fatick however has come under population pressure and all land is now in use and the fallow period has had to be shortened often below the time needed to restore fertility. Use of artificial fertilizer is increasing the carryLng capacity of the region, but it is clear that the migration behavior of the Serer is now very much the same as the Wolof. 65. When the Serer farmer moves from Sine-Saloum to Senegal-Oriental, he does not have the feeling that he leaves the land of his ancestors, since in the past the empty land, to the east, had always been the natural space for expansion. Now-a-days, the Serer has to compete for land with the Wolof in this area. The Serer will be much less inclined to migrate to the Fleuve area if such occasion might arise because he would be much more a stranger there than in Senegal Oriental. Once settled in the eastern regions, he loses his inclination for more intensive farming as he engaged in previously and adopts the agricultural methods of the Wolof. He usually communicates in Wolof although not within the family. He tends to marry within his ethnic group and regularly visits his native village. Migration to Dakar is often temporary and supported by an informal ethnic organization in town. The main difference between him and the Wolof is the lack of support by a strong organization to help him benefit fully from the opportunities that are arising from the opening of the east. B. The Senegal River Valley 66. Although rich in potential, the Senegal River Valley became during this century the most important departure zone of migrants in the country. The river forms an 825-km frontier with Mauritania and flows through the endless arid Sahel plains where annual rainfall ranges from not more than 300 mm in the delta to 700 mm in the eastern Bakel region. Rains are concentrated in the summer months and are too little and too irregular to support sedentary farming.. However, the annual flood of the Senegal river leaves sufficient moisture to permit farmers a second crop which is grown between January and April on the so-called Oualo lands -- the lands that are flooded in fall and dry in the spring. In the arid delta region farming is done almost exclusively on oualo land, but upstream more dry land ("diery") is cultivated; in the Bakel region about 60 percent of the total cultivated area is on diery land and 40 percent on oualo land. 1/ Official estimates which the mission considers to be quite low. - 25 - The presence of water and vegetation in the valley during the dry season allows for relatively high cattle densities in the surrounding plains. All along the river fish provide an alternative source of protein. The diversity of livelihood that the valley offers is demonstrated by Table 7. Most of these activities depend heavily on rainfall. The surface cultivated under flood recession varies normally between 80 and 120 thousand hectares with extremes of 180 thousand hectares in 1950 and 10 thousand hectares in the drought year of 1972. Yields of sorghum, grown on these lands vary from year to year between 250 and 500 kg/ha. The yield of millet on the diery lands was in 1972 only 23 kg/ha as compared to an average of about 200 kg/ha. Cattle stock fell in that year by about 10 percent, which is still relatively favor- able compared with other Sahel regions. TABLE 7: SOURCES OF INCOME IN THE FLEUVE REGION Sources of Active Popu- Population Population Income lation (main without side with side occupation) activities activities (% of Total income) -----(% of active population)------- Agriculture 50 84.0 63.7 20.3 Cattle raising 20 11.3 1.5 9.8 Fisheries 15 4.7 2.2 2.5 Other 15 - - - Total 100 100.0 67.4 32.6 Source: MISOES 1962. (i) Historical Perspective 67. Since the tenth century, the Senegal River Valley has been a center of black muslim civilization. The dominant ethnic groups in the valley are: the Wolof in the delta (70 percent of the delta population); the Toucouleur in the lower and middle valley (60 percent of the total valley population); the Soninkes live mostly in the upper valley, in particular dominating in the region around Bakel but represent all together not more than one seventh of the number of Toucouleurs in the Senegalese part of the valley. The Peul are scattered over the entire region. On the Mauritanian side of the river, the same ethnics are represented, but with a.Berber majority in the lower valley. 68. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the Moors pushed the black popula- tion to the south bank of the river and penetrated deeply into the delta. A Toucouleur kingdom then consolidated its power on the south bank of the - 26 - valley. Feuds about the scarce oualo lands and particularly the slave trade kept the black pcpulation down. In 1775, from a single campaign in the delta, 8,000 captives were taken overseas. Yearly trade was also sub- stantial considering the population size of a few ten thousands. When the valley came under direct control of the French, a large outflow of Toucouleur tribesmen followed. With the end of the slave trade and with the colonial government concentrating on development of the groundnut basin, the valley became an enclave agricultural society characterized by a strong muslim tradition. A period of black colonization of the partly-deserted north bank followed until independence, leaving the population on the south bank rather stable. (ii) Modern Migration Flows 69. The penetration of the market economy into Senegal created a new type of population outflow motivated by the need to earn a money income. This migration happened at quite different periods in the separate regions of the valley. The Wolof population in the delta started to move southward at the beginning of this century with the expansion of the groundnut basin. It took until 1940 until the Toucouleur society became affected by large-scale migration and until 1960 before the Soninkes began to move. These ethnic groups had provided seasonal workers for the groundnut basin, but had abstained from active participation in the colonization of the "new-lands" (except for one Toucouleur settlement in Upper Casamance around 1936). 70. The Toucouleuc migrated mainly to the Cap-Vert area after 1940. This migration took on such proportions that, at present, more than half of the total Senegalese Toucouleur population lives in Dakar. Poorly edu- cated, they performed mostly unskilled work as laborers, street vendors, and shoe shiners, but they were also employed as domestic servants and police. By 1960, it was estimated that there were some 40,000 Toucouleur in Dakar. The direct cause for this migration flow was the start of modern industrial activity in Dakar during the war and the investment boom in the years thereafter creating a host of secondary activities. Inquiries 1/ confirm the economic motivation of most Toucouleur migrants. The introduc- tion of western manufactured products into the Fleuve region must have in- creased the need for money income. The availability of these manufactured products may also have destroyed part of the local handicraft industry and rendered local employment more difficult. In addition, per capita tax which was introduced by the colonial administration must have been an im- portant factor in forcing people out of the subsistence economy. The high percentage of migrants (80 percent) who give "search for food" as the moti- vation for moving may be explained by the scarcity of oualo land and the very low yields from the diery land of which plenty is still available. Once the Toucouleurs had found the path to Dakar, the migratory flow got a momentum of its own. Established migrants in Dakar housed and fed the 1/ "Societe Toucouleur et Migration," Abdoulaye Bara Diop 1965. - 27 - newcomers until they had found a permanent source of income. The sponsors of the migrants exercised strict control over younger migrants and often took the responsibility for their savings. Most migrations started as non-seasonal temporary moves (in 1962, 53 percent of the departures from the valley were for more than six months and 36 percent for more than a year with average intervals of about one year 1/) but, over the 25 years this flow went on, the majority of Toucouleur migrants settled permanently in Dakar. 71. The Soninke went mainly to France. The upsurge of this migration, which began with a mere trickle in the late 1950s, coincided with the European labor shortage during the 1960's. Now it is estimated that there are some 30,000 Senegalese in France, mainly originating from the river valley. This case shows even stronger that a migration flow, once it gets going obtains a momentum of its own. Around 1960, a vast majority of the emigrants was over 25 years old. They have now created in Paris a closely knit Soninke society which is not only organizing housing and jobs for the newcomers, but which is in many cases also financing their journey. The prospective migrants make their way 'first to Dakar, usually at the end of the rainy season, and attempt to get the necessary papers often through brokers. The total cost of getting a migrant to France has been estimated at about US$400, about a year's income for a Senegalese farmer. Migrants leave at the moment at an age between 17 and 22 years old, often illiterate and unable to speak French, but the Soninke society takes care of them. The departure is almost a family decision which demonstrates the economic importance of migration for the entire Soninke community. In their region, there is almost no other way to generate cash income. FEmigration abroad is also spreading to the Toucouleurs and other ethnic groups but still 70 percent of all black Africans in Paris are Soninke and only 15 percent Toucouleur (including those from Mali and Mauritania). 72. The migration flows strongly affected the departure areas, in particular in the region between Matam and Bakel located in the upper valley. About 40 percent of the total active masculine population in the Senegalese Soninke village is absent, and as much as 70 to 80 percent in the 17 to 25-year age group. For the Senegal River valley as a whole (including the north bank) the portion of the population absent is estimated at 20 to 30 percent, 2/ Since the lamily takes care of the fields and seasonal workers are hired during peak times (about two for every three migrants in Soninke agricul- tural villages), agricuLtural production has not fallen much as a result of migration. Remittances from migrants are extremely high in the context of this poor economy. In 1973, remittances from France were estimate to average about CFAF200,000 a person a year, 3 .which represents four to five times the wage level for seasonal labor in the region. The post office in Matam serving about. 128,000.people received between June 1974 and June 1975 CFAF238 million 1/ Source: MISOES 1962. 2/ R. Rodts, 1972. 3/ L'emigration en Pays Snoninke; Lericolais, 1974. - 28 - in postal orders from France and CFAF362 million 1/ from CFAF countries (in total about $2.5 million). 73. Some observers have arrived at the conclusion that the outflow of people has drained the Fleuve region of economic initiative. This may be partly true for the Toucouleur region, many of whose migrants have settled permanently in Dakar. Regarding migration to France, this is not the case, as migrants return after a number of years. Now, they are returning without any useful skills, but the French Government is setting up a program to improve this situation. The most important acquisition of the migrants is perhaps the widening of their horizons, which influences their environment once back home. The villages with the highest migration rates now have, almost exclusively, clean multi-room houses made of concrete blocks or adobe, with corrugated iron roofs. Contrary to the habits of traditional villagers, former migrants send their children to school. Former migrants are also engaged in many community projects, mostly construction of mosques, but also of river boats, village shops, water wells and, in one village they even financed a post office to handle the money stream. Money collections for these projects are sometimes done in Paris. Direct productive investments in agricultural tools are so far rare, and the few imported tractors are out of service. Much of their savings have been invested in cattle usually entrusted to Peul herdsmen on which heavy losses were incurred during the drought. The tendency is now for investment in Dakar. It is certain that the more western consump- tion patterns of former migrants siphon part of the money flow, but dissemina- tion of the migrants' wealth to other sections of the local population through hired labor, local purchases and large dowries is important. The Toucouleur migration to Dakar has been much less remunerative for the local community than the Soninke migration to France, but has at least prevented heavy pressure on the scarce oualo lands. 74. It is sometimes argued that the heavy reliance on remittances from abroad has rendered the local economy vulnerable to sudden changes in immi- gration policies of foreign nations. For example, the new convention with France has changed what was before the equal status of Senegalese and French nationals in the two countries into a status of full foreigners requiring labor permits. It is not yet known how the new requirements combined with the slowdown of the European economy will affect future migration. Another example is that of Zaire which expelled overnight all West Africans living in that country. Two points should, however, be raised. Since migrants from the upper valley move to different countries -- other African countries as well as France -- and even more go to Dakar, there is a reasonable spread of risks. What may be more important, migration has reduced the population's dependence on the region's irregular rainfall. As many villagers said after the drought: "our sons in France have saved us from starvation." Judging on economic aspects alone the balance seems to come out in favor of migration. However, the poor quality of life for the migrants in a completely alien 1/ November 1974 - June 1975 extrapolated to a full year and including remit- tances from migrants residing in Senegal. - 29 - civilization is hard to quantify. The poverty in which they live is not necessarily a reflection of discriminatively low wages and high rents but is partly induced by their desire to save, a characteristic common to all tempor- ary migrants. C. Casamance and Senegal-Oriental 75. Compared with their agricultural potential, both Senegal-Oriental and Casamance are underpopulated. This may seem a paradox in view of the more reliable rainfall and longer growing season which allows for higher yields and larger agricultural diversity than in the more northern parts of the country. There are, however, a number of good reasons for these relatively low densities. In Senegal-Oriental and Upper Casamance, river- blindness pervades the fertile river valleys, the tsetse fly breeds in the forests, and malaria is spread throughout the entire region. Deep groundwater tables--sometimes 60 meters below ground level--caused scarcity of drinking water and made settlement difficult. Even after completion of the railway to Bamako (Mali) at the end of the 19th century which should have made Senegal-Oriental more attractive for settlers because it provided a connection with the sea, the province remained underdeveloped. Concerning Casamance, the French colonial administration had little opportunity and no interest in developing this isolated region. The region is separated from the groundnut basin by the Gambia river valley which was controlled by the British. At independence, the economy of Casamance was still largely in the subsistance stage and cash cropping, mainly cotton, had only just started. 76. At the end of the 19th century, when the French arrived, the original inhabitants of South Senegal, the Bainouk, had already been pushed back or absorbed by the Manding, (Senegal-Oriental), Balant (Upper Casamance) and Diola (Lower Casamance). Senegal-Oriental also had a large number of Peul. Contrary to the ethnic groups of the groundnut basin which all had their origin in the Senegal river valley, these populations come from the south with the exception of a pocket of 10,000 Toucouleurs. With the Manding's conver- sion to the muslim religion, important social and economic changes--not uncommon in other parts of West Africa--took place. The conversion was brought about by Moorish marabouts and not by indigenous muslim groups like the Toucouleur in the groundnut basin. For this reason, the muslim brotherhoods hardly penetrated in the south. Under the influence of the muslim faith, the Manding gave up their nomadic way of life and organized themselves into a militant hierarchical society. They invited Peul cattlemen into an economic alliance, but put heavy armed pressure on the Diolas who remained attached to animism and an exceptionally non-hierarchical form of society. The French ended the warfare in the region, but the Manding continued their penetration in a peaceful way, assimilating part of the Diola population to the Manding way of life. 77. Conversion to the muslim faith also had a large economic impact. After the area had been pacified, the Manding warriors moved to groundnut cash cropping and, more recently, to cotton production. The majority of Diolas who were not touched by the Manding influence (and partly converted to Christianity) remained in their subsistence economy based on rice cultivation. - 30 - 78. Both in Senegal-Oriental and in Casamance, migration movements are of utmost importance for further development. As we have seen before, Senegal-Oriental benefits from a net inflow of population, and is in fact the province with the highest population growth in Senegal (4.9 percent per year). This should be attributed to the relative prosperity of the Bakel region based on remittances from Soninke workers in France, the penetra- tion of groundnut farmers along the railway to Bamako and the inflow of cattle owners from Guinea whose migration is largely for political reasons. Inflow in Casamance is mainly from Guinea Bissau by Mandiaks and Mancagues who assimilate quickly once settled in Senegal and clear forests on the plateaux for groundnut cultivation. The Mancague sometimes occupy land without permis- sion and are known to have created some friction with the existing population. 79. Most damaging for the development of the region is the consider- able outflow of Diolas who leave large surfaces of uncultivated land be- hind. The work on the rice fields in Casamance is year-round and since soils are heavy, land preparation and dike building require considerable muscular force. Because many of the young have migrated much of the heavy work cannot be done anymore. These men often take jobs as seasonal rural workers in other parts of Senegal. They are known for their skills in the fabrication of palm wine, an activity that has almost disappeared in the Muslim regions of Senegal for religious reasons. Young female migrants mostly take jobs as maids in the towns and are not much inclined to return to their native villages (they seem to come only under pressure of the young men). The heavy outflow of young Diolas has been partially for cultural reasons. The contact with the proud Muslim Manding society on one side, and the western influence on the other has given many young Diolas a negative attitude about their own cultural heritage (some of them prefer to call themselves Manding). However, this argument should not be overplayed as Diolas outside their homeland continue to live in closely knit ethnic communities and keep their own language. Probably the main reason for Diola migration is the influx of western con- sumer goods into an economy that has not yet developed sufficient possibili- ties for cash earnings since the local rice is grown almost exclusively as a subsistence crop. Some projects providing cash income have proven that migration of young people quickly levels off once cash income is locally available. III. THE URBAN SECTOR A. Urbanization 80. Since the early part of the century, the rate of urbanization has increased substantially. Net urban migration was estimated at 0.5 percent in 1910, about 2.7 percent in 1964, about 3.0 percent in 1970 and probably even higher in recent years. The leading urban area has undoubtedly been Dakar with an estimated population increase of about 5.0 percent annually - 31 - during the 1960's and probably 8 to 10 percent annually since 1970. By 1970/71 about 30 percent of the Senegalese population was living in towns of 10,000 inhabitants or more. This is high compared with the 22 percent for the African continent as a whole, though it is still well below the proportion for richer countries. Table 8: COMPARISON OF PROPORTION OF URBAN POPULATION, 1975 Country or Region Percentage SENEGAL 30 Africa 24 Europe 67 U.S.S.R. 60 Northern America 77 Japan 75 South Asia 23 East Asia 31 Latin America 61 SOURCE: UN Selected World Demographic Indicators 1950-2000, May 1975 81. Senegal's urban areas consist of 14 towns with 10,000 inhabitants or more and 21 towns with populations between 2,000 and 10,000. Because of its large size, Dakar determines the overall pace of urbanization in Senegal. This is even more the case if the entire Cap-Vert region is in- cluded in the urban population, which is quite justifiably done in the 1970/71 population survey. The other large urban centers like Kaolack, Thies and Saint Louis all grow much more slowly than Dakar. Although growth rates of secondary towns vary widely and sometimes exceed that of Dakar, the average between 1960 and 1973 was only about 4.8 percent a year for the larger and smaller towns alike. Outside Cap-Vert, the highest growth of urban population is in Senegal-Oriental, 7 percent a year which is not surprising considering the fast population growth of that province and the low starting point. Immigration from Guinea-Bissau is the main reason for the high urban growth recorded for Casamance (6 percent a year) with remarkably high growth rates for some smaller towns. Also in the groundnut basin a number of small towns have growth rates close to 10 percent a year, but in this region the variance in urban growth is too large to draw any conclusions. - 32 - Table 9: URBAN CENTERS OF MORE THAN 10,000 INHABITANTS IN 1972/73 /1 Name of Town Province Population Annual Growth Rate 1960/73 Dakar Cap-Vert 616,000 6.0 /1 Kaolack Sine-Saloum 102,715 3.3 Thies Thies 95,652 2.7 Saint-Louis Fleuve 89,868 5.2 Ziguinchor Casamance 49,793 4.4 Tambacounda Sen. Oriental 25,099 7.6 Diourbel Diourbel 37,685 2.3 Louga Diourbel 41,451 8.1 M'Bour Thies 29,604 5.3 Tivaouane Thies 24,337 9.8 M'Backe Diourbel 24,146 10.4 Kolda Casamance 19,349 10.2 Mekhe Thies 11,793 6.4 Bignona Casainance 11,654 6.6 TOTAL 1,180,000 5.5 /1 Since population figures are derived from a sample survey, which prob- ably underestimates the total population by more than 15 percent, the population figures and growth rates derived from the totals should be used with caution, in particular for Dakar for which mission estimates the annual population growth at 8 percent a year. Source: Direction de 1'amenagement du Territoire. 82. Some indication of the growth of these major towns in recent years is given by the extent of their shanty-town populations. It is estimated that the population of Dakar living in 'bidonvilles' increased by 50 percent during the period 1965-72 to a level of 300,000 to 400,000 people, while in the latter year there were about 35,000 'bidonville' inhabitants in Thies, Saint-Louis and Kaolack and 25,000 in Ziguinchor, roughly between a third and half of the indigenous populations. B. Urban Employment 83. Despite the large difference in size between Dakar and the largest secondary towns the distribution of the work force over the major occupations is rather homogeneous. About 177,800 actively employed persons, or 62 per- cent of the total urban labor force are located in Cap-Vert. Of all the people who have ever held a job in Cap Vert 68 percent have been occupied in tertiary sectors and 21 percent in secondary sectors compared to 61 and 19 percent in the urban areas outside Cap Vert, and 21 and 8 percent in the country as a whole. The relatively high employment in Dakar's tertiary sector is related to the presence of the civil service, whereas the smaller - 33 - towns have more people w-ith an agricultural occupation. Employment in secon- dary occupations is, however, fairly similar in all urban centers. Unemploy- ment in Cap-Vert has counted for 19 percent (of which 7 percentage points never employed before). This high figure is somewhat suspect because it is unlikely that in Dakar so many people can be totally without occupation for any length of time. 84. Considering employment in the formal sector alone, the distribution is very much in favor of Dakar. Whereas the Cap Vert region employs 44 per- cent of the population in non-agricultural occupations, it provides about 65 percent of the jobs in the formal sector. For purposes of this paper, the formal sector is defined as comprising wage and salary earners in government service, parastatal organizations, military service and producer establish- ments employing 10 or more persons. In the following paragraphs the situa- tion of each of these subsectors is discussed. (i) Public Sector 85. Between 1964 and 1974 the growth of the civil service averaged about 1.8 percent annually, rising from 29,000 in 1964 to 35,000 in 1974; about two-thirds have pe,cmanent tenure, but in the mid-1970s, up to 13,000 were contractual or temporary employees. Analyzing public sector employees by place of birth, one finds that the different regions are fairly equally represented. Only the FLeuve region appears to be over represented, a dis- equilibrium that was inherited from the long period until the late 1950's when Saint Louis was the administrative center of Senegal. However, the proportion from the FleLrie is rapidly decreasing. In 1974, 44 percent of the civil servants resided in Cap-Vert with an average annual increase of 2.1 percent, compared to 0.9 percent for the rest of the country (so low because the number of civil servants in Fleuve did not increase). These figures indicate a slow centralization of the public sector in Dakar, but since the overall expansion rate oE the civil service is very low anyway regional disparities are not significant except for the town of Saint Louis. (ii) Parastatal Organizations and Others 86. Available sources suggest that there has been no significant ex- pansion in employment by parastatal organizations over the past five years. Rough estimations made-by the Ministry of Planning and Cooperation suggest that when personnel of the railways organization and administrators of local authorities are taken into account, total employment by parastatal organiza- tions could be put at 21,500 for 1968 and 1973 alike. 87. Military and para-military forces amount to under 0.2 percent of the total population of Senegal - a very low proportion relative to other countries. The personnel strength of Senegal's armed forces increased by about 3 percent a year from 1964 to 1974, which mainly occurred during the 1960's. In addition to the army, Senegal has a substantial number of para- military forces. While the overall employment effect of the military has - 34 - not been great, it has had some impact in regions outside Cap-Vert, in par- ticular in Senegal-Oriental and Casamance. (iii) Private Sector 88. The regional distribution of employees in the private sector shows a strong concentration in the Cap-Vert region, accounting for 87 percent of the total (including enterprises of less than 10 employees). Of all enu- merated establishments 68 percent were located in Dakar, but 78 percent of establishments employing more than 10 persons were located there and 82 per- cent of manufacturing establishments alone. The larger the size of the firms, the higher the concentration in Cap-Vert, going up to 88 percent for firms employing over 500 employees. Table 10: EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION IN CAP-VERT Number employed Total in number Cap Vert Proportion in employed (estimate) Cap Vrt egio.n (i) Public Sector 35,000 15,000 44% (ii) Parastatals and others 30,000 13,000 44% (iii) Private Sector 58,000 47,000 80% Total employed in formal sector 123,000 75,000 65% Total employed in non-agricul- tural sectors 337,500 149,000 44% Formal sector employ- ment as percentage of non-agricultural labor force 36% 50% 89. Despite 6 to 7 percent annual production growth in industry, which is the leading activity in the formal sector, private employment in the formal sector has grown only slowly. Comparison of the 1970 and 1972 employment statistics suggest an annual increase of only 3 percent. The fact that two-thirds of the employees have been in their jobs for more than five years points also in the direction of slow growth. There is still some scope for further Senegalization which would increase employment opportuni- ties for the Senegalese. However, in reality, the chances that this will go much further in the next few years are slim. In many cases, large estab- lishments and public sector offices would find it difficult to operate with- out expatriate assistance. - 35 - Table 11 SENEGALIZATION 1971 1971 Nationality Workers % Senegalese 53,032 85 Other Africans 2,912 4 French 5,231 8 Lebanese-Syrian 284 1 Other Foreigners 842 1 . TOTAL 62,101 100 Since formally employed workers represent only 5 to 6 percent of the Senegal- ese population of working age (15-64 years), it is evident that the formal sector played a negligible role in absorbing the growing labor force. (iv) The Informal Sector 90. Those members of the Senegalese labor force not engaged in formal sector activities must necessarily be engaged in the informal sector. The informal sector can be divided roughly into three groups: (a) Artisan activities (b) Small-scale commerce (c) Domestic service It can be estimated that around 215,000 persons or roughly two-thirds of the non-agricultural labor force is occupied in informal activities, of whom 110,000 are in urban areas and 75,000 in Cap-Vert. A survey of 8,847 artisan establishments in Cap-Vert in 1971 estimated that these employed about 35,000 persons, while a'survey of small-scale commerce suggested employment of about 15,000 persons, of whom perhaps 10,000 were located in Cap-Vert. This leaves 30,000 persons occupied in domestic service in the Dakar area, a figure which relates reasonably well to the 30,000 expatriates from Europe and the Near East living in that region. 91. Percentage wise .the informal sector is much smaller in Cap Vert (50 percent) than anywhere else in the country. This is partly due to a more modern production set-up and partly to consumer demand directed towards manufactures rather-than handicrafts. The section on Dakar gives some evi- dence that the proportion of urban demand which is satisfied by the labor- intensive informal sector has increased over time with the growing number of rural migrants. - 36 - C. The Towns (i) Dakar 92. The rapid increase of population in Greater Dakar - or Cap-Vert - during the 1960s clearly accelerated during the period 1970-74. This can be attributed to a number of factors. As is argued later, government policies, particularly on pricing of agricultural products by state monopsonists, were a major cause. The prolonged drought also probably brought in people who would not otherwise have emigrated. Progress in health and education facilities increased Dakar's attractiveness to those of working age, while the existing concentration of government and industry, both formal and informal, ensured that the momentum of migration was maintained. 93. Some evidence of the increase in the rate of growth of Dakar is given by the figures for 'passagers' in the 1970/71 sample survey. If one takes the transient population in Cap-Vert who were born outside the region in any two successive rounds of the survey, and compares this with the total population of Cap-Vert, it can be calculated that the annual gross rate of in-migration was 9 to 10 percent. A similar exercise for the transient popu- lation of other regions who originated in Cap-Vert implies a gross outflow of 4-5 percent. Thus the net rate of in-migration would lie in the range of 4-6 percent 1/ If we add the natural rate of growth of the Cap-Vert popu- lation (say 2.8 percent), the total annual growth of Cap-Vert would be about 8 percent. After 1970, the inflow has probably gone up further leading to annual growth of close to 10 percent. 94. This rate of growth applied to the 1970/71 survey estimate of the population of Cap-Vert would give a total figure of nearly 1,000,000 in 1975. However, not only did the rate of immigration increase in the early 1970s, but there was clearly substantial underenumeration in the survey. For 1975, therefore, the mission estimates that Cap-Vert contained well over 1 million inhabitants - perhaps 1.2 to 1.3 million. This would represent about 25 per- cent of the estimated total population of the country (5 million). 95. A complicatirg aspect of the picture is that the inhabitants of Dakar include an unknown proportion of 'floating population,' incorporating a distinct element of seasonal-workers as well as transients. The first estimate of this floating population was made in 1955. It suggested that 7-8 percent of Dakar's-population were 'floaters.' 2/ This was confirmed by the 1970-71 survey which found 40 to 80 thousand "passagers," depending on the season. It is known that many inhabitants leave Dakar during the wet season but this 'was not. confirmed by the number of absent residents. One explanation of these inconclusive results is that the first and third rounds 1/ If comparable successive rounds of the sample survey were taken, the rate would be exactly five percent. 2/ See Haut Commissariat de la Republique en Afrique Occidental Francaise, 'Recensement demographique de Dakar, 1955. - 37 - of the survey covered the period May to November, a substantially longer period than the wet season, which normally runs from July to September. When the mission was in Dakar in summer 1975, there was clearly no problem of open unemployment. However, during the dry season the numbers of under- employed persons are said to increase significantly. This also suggests a seasonal movement away from Dakar, probably to the groundnut basin to assist at the very short peak planting time. 96. With an annual population increase of close to 10 percent of which about half were migrants of working age, and an increase in formal sector employment of only about 3 percent it is obvious that the informal sector of Dakar must have provided a livelihood for the bulk of the additional popula- tion. There is some indirect evidence-that, despite this massive absorption of new people, revenues in the informal sector have not fallen. With real purchasing power of minimum wages in the formal sector slowly increasing, there has been no rush to join the ranks of the formally employed, which is usually visible as long lines of job-seekers outside factory gates or minis- tries. Those interviewed by the mission in both the formal and informal sectors confirmed the feeling that there would be little, if any, financial gain by moving from the informal to the formal sector, at least in the short to medium term. Artisans consider their activity very much as permanent oc- cupations and would not consider formal sector employment. On the contrary, they develop gradually their own specialities to reinforce their business: even apparently similar workshops turn out to have differentiated their prod- ucts to quite an extent. 97. A study carried out by the ILO 1/ in 1974 found that the informal sector was, to a very large extent, self-generating. Around 80 percent of artisans sold their production almost exclusively to individuals from their own social strata and from the African middle class, without commercial media- tion. Of 285 "petty producers" interviewed, only 6 percent had received a formal technical education, while an additional 24 percent had been trained on the job, occasionally as employees in government workshops, the army and foreign enterprises. The remaining 70 percent were apprentices either to artisans, small producers or small, self-employed sub-contractors. The study also found that there was a substantial shift from wage-employment to self- employment during the period 1969-72 and that there has been no evidence of a reverse shift (or desire for such) since. 98. Working with some of the petty producers are 'casual workers,' of which the ILO survey estimated that 37 percent were recent migrants to Cap- Vert (within the past 5 years), 38 percent were established migrants (more than 5 years) and 25 percent were born in Cap Vert. Most had a number of occupations each year, worked on average only 19 days each month, but earned only about 12 percent less a day than the lowest grade worker in the formal sector. However, it was noted that a large proportion of the sample (over 70 1/ "Petty Producers and Urban Economy: A Case Study of Dakar," Chris Gerry, ILO 1974. - 38 - percent) also had income from other sources or had their earnings supplemented by other family members. It is not necessarily true -- as the ILO study concluded -- that such apprentices and employees are destined for a life of constant reductions in their real level of living because they have to face heavy competition. There is no evidence of such a tendency in the past, and the relatively low percentage of people working in the informal sector of Dakar seems to allow for substantial further growth in this kind of employ- ment. 99. Apparently, monetary incentives of government employment are not high. From figures for 1974, it appears that 50 percent of all government employees received wages below the minimum standard wage for workers or em- ployees of the seventh grade, which implies that these persons were receiving wages at approximately :he same level as lower grade workers. For permanent employees, of course, there are a few non-monetary or delayed benefits, but, as in other countries, these are less valuable during the early part of working life. An interesting aspect is that the government and most employers in the formal sector appear to be very strict on 'moon-lighting.' Whereas in many developing countries a position in the formal sector, particularly the civil or military service, is looked upon as the anchor job for a series of extra-curricula activities, this is not true in Senegal. Many government workers, especially at lower levels, stressed that it was almost impossible for them to obtain an outside job without being found out, and if found out they would lose their government job. 100. Almost all Cap-Vert residents keep in contact with their home vil- lage, though in varying degrees. In many cases, the children of permanently urbanized families have never gone to the traditional homeland, but they get to know the rural relatives who come to visit for one reason or another, such as to attend school. There is a curious mixture of traditional and modern values in the family system. Traditional kinship relations often consist of a balanced series of reciprocal rights and obligations in a subsistence en- vironment. In modern Senegalese society, the reciprocity is less obvious but the obligations remain. A man who lives in an urban center may be obliged to support family who migrate to that area from his 'surplus over sub- sistence.' Repayment may only occur when the new immigrants earn their own surplus. Migrants without relatives in Cap-Vert or other cities tend to cluster together for mutual protection in groups based on ethnic, caste or village origin. By means of low dues, this collective system protects mi- grants who fall ill or lose their job. The acceptance of this system by so many Senegalese not only provides a cushion for illiterate, unprepared rural migrants, but also encourages a desire among urban residents to obtain information about incoae-earning opportunities for their new dependents. The quicker the new migrants earn a reasonable income, the quicker will obliga- tions be repaid in cash or kind. 101. A word is necessary here about nutrition. In Dakar, as in most other parts of Senegal, the basic diet of the poorer sections of the popu- lation is highly nutritious. Fish is in plentiful supply and so are many - 39 - kinds of fruit, particularly mangoes and vegetables. Bread is cheap, ground- nuts are readily available, and sugar, salt, millet and rice are available at reasonable prices. Compared with many other parts of the Third World, the poorer classes in Senegal are better and more nutritiously fed. 102. While the Senegalese regard differences in income as a major fac- tor in any decision to migrate temporarily or permanently to Cap-Vert or other towns, there are clearly a number of non-income advantages of moving to Dakar. These advantages are particularly important in reducing back- flows to the rural areas. One is the quality of housing. While 'bidonville' structures may appear to richer classes as blots on the landscape, the shan- ties of the Medina and Pekine are a considerable improvement over the usual village hut in the eyes of new migrants. Moreover, the bidonville struc- tures can be extended or strengthened if the inhabitants decide to stay permanently; they can be moved or sold in sections if the migrants decide to go back to their original home. Another non-income advantage is the access to infrastructure. Almost all bidonville residents interviewed by the mission spoke particularly of the ready access to water stand-pipes. Many had access to electricity. But even those houses without such advan- tages could view the prospect of obtaining them (by moving up in the social strata through earning higher incomes or because of decisions by the Govern- ment) with optimism. To these benefits, one must also add reasonable access to schools and hospitals as well as the opportunity to learn new skills through the pervasive apprenticeship system by part or full-time wage employ- ment or simply by imitation. (ii) Saint-Louis 103. A second city, which has about 120,000 inhabitants and great poten- tial for further absorption of immigrants, is Saint-Louis. The administra- tive capital of the country until the 1950s, the historic city is now decay- ing but is desperately trying to establish a new equilibrium. In view of ongoing efforts to develop the Senegal river basin, the economic base of the town will widen in the coming decades. This justifies a special effort of the Government to preserve Saint-Louis' vitality. 104. The city can be divided into three parts: the 'Langue Barbari,' a long sliver of land on which is based the major fishing fleet, the markets, and various entertainment and tourist facilities; the "Ile," a historic island with narrow streets and beautiful but decaying old buildings where the administrative offices and most major shops are; and the mainland, which is where the city's expansion is taking place, through both modern and 'bidon- ville' construction. On the Langue Barbari, sensible steps are already being taken to provide assistance to the fishermen and their wives by the provision of refrigerated storage facilities, hygienic market stalls, protective dikes and by further expansion of the distribution and sale of outboard motors for the fishermen's boats. Tourism facilities - especially a new tourist village at the southern end of the Langue - also deserve support. The beaches are excellent and tourism of this type would complement the colorful fisheries - 40 - industry. On the 1le, the major task is renovation, both as a further com- plement to tourism, but also for reasons of hygiene and historical preserva- tion. Three out of every five houses have no sanitation facilities, but un- fortunately plans for improvement face financial difficulties. A further essential program, designed to restore both public and private buildings, also appears to be short of funds. The main rationale for the expansion of the Saint-Louis mainland is that the city will undoubtedly serve as an entre- pot and service center for the expected large and rapid development of lands on the Senegalese side of the Senegal River. Already, forestry, fishing and large-scale agriculture and horticulture are being developed. A nucleus of industry exists, including a large sugar refinery, tomato canning plant, and silos while, with foreign aid, new schools and a very large university are being established. 105. The informal sector in Saint-Louis is much less varied and exten- sive than in Dakar. It is concentrated on activities associated with fish- ing although it comprises the usual West African range of services. Never- theless, as the income of the city increases, the informal sector will provide a very useful absorptive shield for migrants, especially those coming in from the Fleuve area. (iii) Ziguinchor 106. Another city with considerable absorptive capacity is Ziguinchor, the capital of the Casamance region, with a population of about 70,000 peo- ple. At present, Ziguinchor has a population growth rate of 4-5 percent annually -- not as high as Kolda, further upstream (9-10 percent) -- though Ziguinchor is clearly the regional economic center and will probably be the ultimate recipient of Casamance's migrants. Moreover, Ziguinchor has defi- nite tourist potential. Hotel beds are few at present but the new Diola hotel, being built in pure Diola style but with all the modern amenities, will undoubtedly provide one of the most attractive settings for visitors to Africa. The city appears to have no problem of either land availability or social in- frastructure. What it lacks most of all at present is simply a few good roads and, particularly, drainage .facilities. The area is well stocked with various types of schools, hospitals and dispensaries; the city water is treated, filtered and piped, and all quarters possess electricity. While money incomes in Ziguinchor are lower than in more northern Senegalese towns, the nutritious local products and the lack of overcrowding raise the real standard of living; even in the 'bidonville' section each house has a plot of land around it where rice, millet, sorghum or groundnuts are cultivated. 107. A particularly impressive aspect of Ziguinchor is the excellent manner in which much cof its informal sector has been organized. In the large, walled market place, for example, the municipality has provided ade- quate space and facilities for workshops and stalls to be located in a ra- tional and mutually beneficial pattern. In the handicraft market nearby, the workers are courteous with tourists, and the market's own administration fixes and publishes prices which are neither outrageously high or uneconom- ically low. Some of the 'bidonville' areas of Ziguinchor are being 'regu- larized.' However, this process does not take the form it does in Dakar of - 41 - moving the population to a newly prepared area. It involves providing infra- structural improvements for the existing area. For example, in Tilene, one of the older quarters, the land is very low and the houses have to be con- structed on raised platforms. By regrading and installing roads and drain- age, life in Tilene is being made much more pleasant. Similarly in the quar- ters of Peyrissac and Niefoulene improvements in roads are being made. (iv) Kaolack 108. Kaolack, Senegal's second largest city of roughly 130,000 people, is sprawling and run-down and has long lost its role as an economic center of the southern part of the groundnut basin. Much of its former industry has been closed down, leaving only the peanut refinery and a salt plant. The port is usually deserted, and is rapidly silting up. Potential for tourism is almost non-existent. Since the Dakar-Rufisque-Thies' industrial concentration is just three hours away by road, possibilities to revive industry are small. Kaolack's chances lie in the intensification of agricul- ture in that region, which will require a host of rural services, and in the increases in groundnut and cotton production in southeast Senegal, which will allow for more industrial processing in Kaolack. It would be much better to place the textile complex based on Senegalese cotton in Kaolack than in Saint-Louis, as the latter already has substantial potential because of the Senegal river irrigation scheme. 109. Apart from the very center of the city, the area around the govern- ment offices, and a small quarter containing middle-class housing, almost the whole city is a 'bidonville.' Sections such as Kasna, Kassavi, Sare Nougory and Medina are, moreover, extremely heavily populated. Informal sector ac- tivities do not appear to take place within the 'bidonvilles' to the extent that they do in Dakar, and the city's mayor informed the mission that many of the young men, after arriving in Kaolack, quickly move on temporarily or permanently to Dakar. Indeed, Kaolack's bus and truck station is probably one of the busiest in the country. The city can be regarded, therefore, as a relatively temporary staging post in the movement of people out of the groundnut basin and into the Cap Vert region. The low population growth rate of about 3 percent a year confirms this view. If present efforts to intensify agriculture in the region prove effective in reducing the push for rural-urban migration, population growth may level off completely. .IV. POLICIES AND POLICY OPTIONS A. Government Objec:ives 110. The Senegalese Government is vividly aware of the problems con- nected with migration. Its main concerns are the fast growth of Dakar, the overpopulation in parts of the groundnut basin and the depopulation of some regions with rich agricultural potential. With so many disastrous examples of urbanization in the world, the government fears that the population of - 42 - Dakar could expand beyond the capacity of the town to provide income and em- ployment, thereby producing an endless sprawl of shacks whose inhabitants are unable to pay taxes. In such a case, lack of finance will prevent the gov- ernment from providing elementary infrastructure and social services, lead- ing to the spread of misery, disease and political disruption. Dakar is at the moment a pleasant and relatively prosperous town and the government is eager to keep it that way. In the view of the Government the danger of massive urban migration is, to a large extent, linked to growing overpopula- tion in the center of the groundnut basin southeast of Dakar. It expects that without government actilon farmers revenues may fall and constant over-cropping of the land may lower fertility. While urban migration seems to offer an attractive alternative to the farmers in that region, development of the south and southeast of the country is being held back by lack of manpower. 111. Against the background of these concerns the government set itself the objective to resettle about 70,000 persons in the active age group to- gether with their families from the over populated parts of the groundnut basin into the Senegal-Oriental province during the current decade. Over population would amount to 80,000 active persons in 1970, based on a target of 2 hectares per active person which would generate a per capita income of about CFAF 10,000 per year. I/ Assuming a higher level of technology (which has, in the meantime, largely been achieved) and 2.5 hectares per active person per capita income could attain CFAF 20,000 per year, I/ but the population surplus would increase to 200,000 active persons. The latter figure was adopted to quantify the over population. A new law was passed to ensure full Government control over land in the regions reserved for resettle- ment projects, setting aside the traditional rights to the land. After a first resettlement experience in the Senegal river delta dating back to the 1960's, two resettlement pilot projects were started in Senegal-Oriental. The first for 300 families has been completed; the second for 600 families is in execution. Although the projects were successful in a technical sense, they proved, as is seen below, that the government's migration policies needed some rethinking, and a review of the resettlement policy is now underway. B. Realizations 112. The basic problem with the Government's former migration strategy was the neglect of the much more important, spontaneous flows of people. These flows originated essentially in the economic advantages of concentrating modern high productivity activities in urban centers. The government can only marginally influence this process without doing serious harm to its economic development. The rural population is almost excluded from these jobs by lack of skills, but the concentration of purchasing power connected with a dynamic modern sector creates a host of other activities which require little or no 1/ Roughly 75 percent more in 1976 prices. - 43 - skills and which - in their turn - create new markets. Participation in the urban economic system even on a temporary basis or through family members can be more important for a farmer than a few hectares more of land in Senegal- Oriental. 113. While the official migration policy was intended to slow down the growth of Dakar, the net result of over-all government policies was quite the opposite. Since independence, the government has given strong support to the development of local industry. Although substantial advantages are given for industrial settlements outside the Cap Vert region, almost all large and medium-scale industries have stayed or settled in the environment of Dakar. However, the cost of industrial protection in the form of higher prices has had to be borne by the country as a whole, including the poorer agricultural population. 114. In the meantime the government has tried to improve the living standards of the established urban population by an active minimum-wage and price-subsidy policy. Between 1964 and 1974 the cost of living in Dakar in- creased by 50 percent, whereas the minimum wages were increased by 66 per- cent. 1/ By the end of 1974 consumer subsidies on basic foodstuffs attained an unsupportable level and, the government had to reduce them substantially. The subsequent increase in the cost of living for a European type family was 20 percent and about double this percentage for the poorest families, but minimum wages were increased by 47 percent; government salaries in the lower brackets were increased up to 60 percent for the lowest paid. The firmly supported wage rates in the formal sector provided the purchasing power which enabled people in the informal sector to keep their average real income at least stable. 115. In this way ihe urban population almost completely escaped the economic misfortunes of the rural population during the late 1960's and early 1970's. The groundnut prices paid to the farmers which stood in 1964 at CFAF 21.3 per kg decreased to CFAF 17.1 in 1968 due to falling world market prices and a loss of the priviledged position of Senegalese groundnuts on the French market. Prices recovered in later years, but farmers revenues were seriously reduced by four crop failures within a six-year period. In 1974, world market prices for groundnuts reached their top but farmers prices were increased less than proportionally to finance the subsidies on imported food for urban consumers. With the reductions of consumer subsidies by the end of 1974, farmers prices for groundnuts were increased more to CFAF 41.5 per kg, but if these prices had been increased in line with the minimum wages, the level should have been CFAF 51.8 per kg. The relative fall in living standards of the rural population since 1964 can therefore be estimated at 20 percent. 116. Government's economic policies have certainly succeeded in keeping Dakar a prosperous African town. This has been achieved despite the break-up 1/ Movements of minimum wages reflect in Senegal fairly well the movements in income of the lower paid workers. - 44 - in 1960 of French West Africa, Dakar's hinterland, into nine independent states. The Government's policies have led to an average income level in Dakar estimated at four to five times as high as in the country side. While this difference is great, it is not unusual for countries at Senegal's stage of development. The large migration flows have been reasonably well absorbed by the informal sector. With this in mind, how concerned should one be about further growth of Dakar? By world standards Dakar is certainly not a large city. If the government had the financial means for the necessary infrastructure and social services, Cap-Vert could - with careful planning - easily absorb half or more of the Senegalese population. It is clear, however, that the city cannot continue to grow at the cost of Senegal's relatively small and poor rural area. On the contrary, the urban population should carry part of the risks involved in this two-commodity economy and the terms of trade should be altered more in favor of the rural population. Dakar should therefore develop its own economic base in the form of an export industry that could pay for urban infrastructure instead of its being subsidized by an artificially low urban cost of living. 1/ In the late 1960's the government started to orient its industrial policies towards exports, and the recently opened industrial free zone is the first tangible undertaking, however too recent to be judged on its success. The same applies to the large tourist complex which has recently been opened in Dakar. 117. Urban migration will certainly continue, but whether it will sur- pass the absorptive capacity of the informal sector depends on the economic opportunities in the countryside. A reversal of the urban-rural terms of trade will erode the standards of living in Dakar and will, no doubt, make life for the people at the margin of the urban economy much more difficult. However, in general, the Senegalese are well informed about the economic opportunities throughout the country. Potential migrants will also be in- formed when income opportunities in the cities are becoming less attractive than in the countryside and will find urban relatives less prepared to sup- port them. Even a small change in economic opportunities will therefore somewhat affect Dakar's present 10 percent population inflow and 5 percent population outflow, with a substantial effect on the net figure. 118. The basic theme of Senegalese planners is that the solution for the problems of the big cities lies in the countryside. Ten years ago the government started a large program to improve rainfed agriculture. The initial phase, the in'troduction of light tools and animal traction, has been almost completed; the current phase includes the use of fertilizers and heavy, oxdrawn tools. With these improvements rural income can be substantially increased, but it may nevertheless not lead to a permanent slow-down of urban migration. Certainly the more intensive production methods will increase yields and allow higher population densities per hectare. But introduction 1/ In 1976, due to a fall in world market prices for Senegals' basic food imports which was only partially passed on to the consumer, and to a subsidy to the groundnut farmer in view of a temporary fall in ground- nut prices, the subsidy flows have this year been reversed. - 45 - of modern tools has in the long-run the opposite effect. In the past, farm- ers income was limited by the surface of land he could prepare and seed in the very short period available. Animal traction broke this manpower constraint and allowed the farmer to cultivate larger surfaces. However, since land was in limited supply, and in some regions of the central groundnut basin (Fatique and M'Backe) all land was already occuppied, the new technology will make part of the agricultural labor force redundant. One of the first results of this innovation has been that the need of foreign temporary workers ("navetanes") has decreased. The higher income per hectare may initially lead the farmer to support more active persons on his farm than required, but in years of bad crops (which seem to occur at an average of one out of four years) this superfluous population will be pushed out probably to the towns, which is the only short term alternative. 119. Since intensification of groundnut/millet cultivation will lead to lower land/labor ratios and land will become scarce, the government is looking into other methods of crop intensification. Especially in the north where fertilizers are less effective, new solutions are necessary. The recent discovery of large underground water reservoirs in that area may offer prospects while the quick growth of Dakar will create a market for a wide range of labor intensive agricultural products. However, even with these possibilities, the feasibility of which has hardly been tested, the outflow from the groundnut basin will be reduced only slightly. C. Resettlement Policy 120. With government's concern about over-population in Dakar and the groundnut basin, its reasons for changing the resettlement policy must be compelling. A number of arguments have been directed against the old policy. Basically the resettlement schemes were too costly and required too much organization to be effective on a large scale. The movement of a family in such a scheme costs roughly $5,000 which would amount to $175 million for 70,000 people in the active age group. On top of this a costly onchocerciasis campaign would be required to free sufficient land from this disease. Finally, it is highly questionable whether it would be technically possible to settle more than 1,000 families a year, which would not be more than a drop in the bucket and therefore not effective in solving the problem. 121. There are also a number of difficulties with the basic set-up of the resettlement program. First, the program is unnecessarily expensive because it only recruits farmers originating from certain regions and with experi- ence in modern farming. Such farmers are not necessarily the most motivated to move and will only migrate at a relatively high premium. Second, the original project regulations limited the land holdings of the settlers. This was done to reduce the cost of infrastructure per family, but it diluted the main advantage for the settlers, availability of plenty of land, which in turn caused disputes between the project entity and the farmers who, quite naturally, preferred to use less intensive agricultural methods, employ hired labor and cultivate more land. The hired labor often wanted to stay but found them- selves "not selected" for the project. Nevertheless, many of them managed to settle in existing villages outside the project area. - 47 - 12t.. Although resettlement projects may manage to bring in 1,000 fam- ilies per year, the negative impact of the projects on spontaneous migration can be much larger. The land law for the pioneer zone tried to block migra- tion by people other than those selected by the Government from the over- populated regions. Since development of the Senegal Oriental region depends on the influx of farmers, economic progress may well have been held back by this law. So far at least two groups of migrants have been excluded from the area. One group comprised the highly efficient Mourides, I/ who are generally considered to have too large an advantage over individual farmers in the occupation of the new lands. Excluding the Mourides might be valid from the viewpoint of equity, but it also means that preference has been given to less productive migrants. A second group, foreigners, were specifically excluded from the projects. This makes little sense in the regional context since the same people live on the two sides of the international frontier. The move- ments over the frontier are uncontrollable and if village chiefs accept new migrants (which they like to do for reasons of prestige) no authority can interfere. As a result this kind of migration takes place outside the plan- ning framework. 123. The old set-up is also expensive in terms of available land. The projects require large blocks of unpopulated fertile land free of disease, which, even in Senegal-Oriental, is scarce. In a natural settlement pattern, all good land would be cultivated and the strips of laterite would be used for the cattle. Senegal Oriental has the capacity to receive more new mi- grants who arrive spontaneously than the highly structured resettlement program could make available. D. A New Policy 124. The Government has recently decided on a more dispersed migration policy regarding the southeastern part of the country. The above analysis indicates what elements this new policy should cover. First priority should be given to the economic development of the region instead of migration of selected individuals from overcrowded parts of the country. The common feature of the whole south and southeast part of Senegal is lack of man- power and insufficient penetration of the money economy. Further promotion of cash crops would stimulate economic development and would induce the existing population to remain in the region. Migrants willing to produce a cash crop should be welcomed even if they do not originate from the ground- nut basin. They would facilitate the introduction of modern techniques and influence the existing inhabitants to move out of their subsistence economy. In fact, development of a money economy in these large regions would substantially increase the vitality of the urban regions in the west and indirectly help these overcrowded regions. 125. Provision of infrastructure by the Government should be condi- tioned on the population growth of the villages. This would stimulate vil- lage chiefs to accept new migrants and would ensure full return on the 1/ Of course this doesn't apply to Mourides who participate in the Projects on an individual basis. - 48 - infrastructure investment right from the beginning. In some less inhabited regions it may be necessary to start off migration by creating a new vil- lage. In such cases, preference for land allocation should be given to Sourghas who have already worked in the area for sometime as they will have the most motivation and the best judgment of farming possibilities. However, there is strong evidence that a permanent settlement cannot be attained without a core group of established families including some handicraftsmen such as a blacksmith. For these cases some official recruitment should continue. Farmers in such new villages should be encouraged to use hired labor and expand their farms. This way each new village could become a new growth pole of migration. 126. Rights to land and possible subsistence subsidies during the first year for all migrants should be strictly related to manual land clearing and destumping so as to avoid speculative occupancy and the destructive use of land that characterized the early stages of groundnut expansion in Senegal. The effectiveness of such premia as an incentive for land clearing has been shown in the past. By limiting the premium to land zoned for farms the Government could control deforestation to some extent. The allocation of land to individuals should be left to the village chiefs in almost all cases, but be guided by extension services and controlled by the government to prevent ecological damage. Subsidies should be kept low, but some possibility to earn a cash income by working on infrastructure in the region may help young migrants. 127. To diversify the regional economy the government may also consider some larger-scale cooperative or western plantation style farming. Since private groups, such as the earlier mentioned religious brotherhoods, would organize such ventures, it would not burden the local planning authorities. This approach would have the additional advantage that the considerable rural savings generated by the brotherhoods which are now partly invested in Dakar would find an outlet in rural areas, which better conforms to the agricul- tural vocation of these groups. A prerequisite for all these approaches is a regional development plan to determine the framework within which the spontaneous migration could be stimulated. E. Irrigation 128. There remains the important question of whether investments in Senegal-Oriental and Upper Casamance are justified if Mali, Mauritania and Senegal decide to move ahead with the Senegal river irrigation scheme. This project will eventually irrigate 220,000 hectares in Senegal alone, and will profoundly change the structure of the economy. At the present stage of knowledge development of rainfed agriculture in southeast Senegal seems more profitable than irrigation, but is too limited in scope to allow for balanced economic development over a longer period. This report will touch upon some of the migration aspects of this project. Since all major decisions on irrigation remain to be made, the manpower aspects have so far been inadequately studied. The following section discusses in some detail the irrigation works in the delta. This project has progressed over the last 15 years to a point where a - 49- salt water barrier is now being considered -- called the Diama dam -- so that a fresh water reservoir will be created with sufficient capacity to irrigate and double crop 30,000 hectares of land, divided between Senegal and Mauritania. (i) The Senegal River Delta 129. Execution of irrigation works in the delta has considerably in- creased the population in that region. Contrary to the middle and upper river valley, the delta was sparsely populated when the colonial government started cultivation of irrigated rice. Beginning with a low base of 11,200 people in 1961 the population of the area increased to 19,500 in 1971. In 1964 the protecting dike around roughly 40,000 ha of arable land was com- pleted and five new viLlages have subsequently been built with a total popu- lation of about 6,000. About half of these people came from the delta or its immediate surroundings and the other half moved in from outside the re- gion. One village, for example, consists entirely of World War II veterans. The new villages absorbed almost half of the total inflow in the region, another third was absorbed by the Richard Toll area where the sugar planta- tion and refinery were founded. The remainder went to the existing villages where population increases varied between 10 and 100 percent. 130. It has been difficult to create viable communities in the new vil- lages. The villagers have kept contact with their original communities and are frequently away for long periods when their presence on the rice fields is not required. The cohabitation of cattle-holders and farmers also created problems in the initial stages, but these seem to have been solved by moving the cattle further from the villages so they no longer trample the crops. The choice and acceptance of the village head is the main problem in these new multi-ethnic communities. Instead of the village head, often the manager of the cooperative (an appointed official) is called in to settle differences. In these mixed communities, disagreements most often arise from lack of solidarit.y when it comes to repayment of debts for which coop- eratives are collectively responsible. Around 25 percent of the settlers have been expulsed by the project authorities for a variety of reasons and 30 percent transferred to other areas. In the longer term the Muslim reli- gion is the binding element (which makes settlement for the Christians dif- ficult). Recently the population started its own construction of shelters (often reallocating the concrete structures originally intended for housing to cattle or tools). Some local handicrafts and commerce have now devel- oped. The possibility of year round agricultural activity which will come about with the construction of the Diama dam will certainly strengthen these new communities further. 131. By, comparing two villages in the same area, a modern village like Ronkh and a representative ,traditional village like N'Gnith, one can get an idea of the impact of intensive agricultural development on the population. While the population growth rate of Ronkh is 5 percent and the village has 38 percent of the cultivable land in use, the population of N'Gnith grows by 1.5 percent and cultivates not more than 13 percent of the land. The birth rate in Ronkh is twice as high as in N'Gnith which is an indirect result of migration flows: in Ronkh young people moved in, while in N'Gnith they moved - 50 - out. In Ronkh only 4 percent of the population is absent, while in N'Gnith it is 13 percent. In Ronkh the cultivated area per active person is between 1.6 and 10.5 ha of rice; the minimum in N'Gnith is about the same as in Ronkh but mostly under groundnut and millet cultivation instead of rice; but the maximum is not more than 5.3 ha. 132. Mention should be made of the experience in Ronkh with the "foyer des jeunes," an association of 360 youngsters who cultivate 290 hectares of rice and tomatoes on a collective basis. This project provides the young- sters with a cash income generated in their own environment which supports the family budget and prevents them from leaving the village. The success of this project has inspired other villages to follow suit and, at the mo- ment, the youngsters of Ronkh run a coordinating body for these associa- tions. 133. An ILO study (see Annex II) came to the conclusion that, even with completion of substantial irrigation works connected with the Diama dam, the labor shortage in the delta will remain relatively small and will not justify resettlement of people from the central groundnut basin. The explicit assump- tion is that the development of the delta is a venture involving the two riparian countries, Senegal and Mauritania, and that the population of the delta on the two sides of the frontier should be the first to benefit. In the case of open frontiers, the expected labor surplus on the Mauritania side will almost automatically fill the deficits on the Senegalese side. With the "Delta" defined as the prefecture of Dagana in Senegal (total population 55,750) and Keur-Massene, Jedril Moha Guene and Tiekane in Mauritania (total population 65,500), the ILO report study comes to the following forecast excluding the likely in-migration into the region: - 51 - Table 12 FORECAST OF LABOR SURPLUSES AND DEFICITS IN THE SENEGAL RIVER DELTA 1975 1980 1985 SENEGAL Net active population 18,900 19,940 22,430 available occupations 19,400 32,860 /1 deficit (-) -500 -12,920 MAURITANIA Net active population 22,100 23,600 25,850 available occupations 11,700 15,865 surplus (+) +10,400 +7,735 TOTAL Net active population 41,000 43,540 48,280 available occupations 31,100 48,725 60,030 surplus (+)/deficit (-) +9,900 -5,185 -11,750 /1 Conservatively projected on the basis of 19,400 hectares irri- gated. More optimistic forecasts arrive at a total of 24,850 hectares by 1980/81 which would increase the manpower require- ments by about 5,000 persons. 1334 These estimates are based on 190 working days in a year, which is reasonable in a region with an overall labor surplus and possibilities for year-round agriculture. However, in the 1980's the labor surplus in the area will disappear if no immigration is assumed. In such a case, 250 working days per year could be attained which would keep the overall deficit in the delta at about 7,400 active persons by 1985. This shortage probably could be easily filled with non-organized migration from the surrounding regions. 135. The ILO study only calculates the direct employment effects, but since the project will generate substantial purchasing power in the region, an important secondary employment effect can be expected. Experience in other countries has shown that the multiplier effect of an irrigation proj- ect depends heavily on the country's stage of development. Industrialized countries produce many of the newly demanded products themselves and have an employment multiplier of around 2.5. In the less-developed countries the first effect of the higher incomes is more demand for food, which re- duces the agricultural surpluses but does not create any new jobs. Demand for non-agricultural products will in such countries lead to imports into the region, and often from abroad. The multiplier for Senegal may be 1.5 in line with countries in similar stages of development. This would imply 7,000 new jobs in the secondary and tertiary sectors by 1980 and 11,000 - 52 - by 1985. Since Saint-Louis has at the moment an active population, around 40,000 persons, and suf:fers from a high unemployment rate, it is clear that this town can provide, without any problem, the labor force for these func- tions. 136. The above analysis is based, however, on a political decision to give land, or at least jobs, to non-Senegalese farmers. Such a decision will probably depend on the coming negotiations between Senegal and Mauritania on water rights and debt service obligations connected with the construction of the Diama dam. From the ILO forecast one would conclude that there is a case for acceleration of the irrigation program in the Mauritanian part of the delta, so that this country could absorb its own population surplus. 137. There are some strong arguments for the Senegalese Government to plan for an inflow in the delta of some 2,000 to 3,000 active persons a year as soon as the decision for the Diama dam has been taken. As Senegal has to find employment for its growing population, it should try to keep agriculture in the irrigated perimeters labor intensive. This will be easier if labor is plentiful. Since the ILO calculations are based on 190 to 250 days of work due to the double cropping possibilities, income per farmer will be easily two times as high as in the groundnut basin, where farmers can spend only 90 days a year on their groundnut/millet crop. I/ These differences are very large, and the Government may be inclined to allocate less land per active person than technically possible to spread the benefits of the project more equally over a larger part of the population. A large income differential would be particularly hard to accept if it accrued to foreign farmers. The formula of the new resettlement schemes in the delta will probably discount. the previous experiences, in particular that settlers need not come from the groundnut basin. Account should. also be taken of the fact that settlement in an irri- gated area is cheaper than in Senegal Oriental, since the much smaller land holdings in the former allow for larger villages and shorter feeder roads which imply substantial savings in resettlement costs. (ii) The Senegal River Valley 138. Upstream storage facilities in the River Valley are necessary to provide enough water flow during the dry season to allow for double cropping on about 400,000 ha. Of this total, about 222,000 ha could be realized on the Senegalese side of the river, 131,000 ha in Mauritania and 45,000 ha in Mali. Rice and cereals will probably be the major crops. The upstream storage capacity will probably not be completed before 1985. West Germany has offered to do the technical design studies of the Manatali dam; the financing is still uncertain. The irrigation component could start on a single cropping basis with some double cropping with locally-stored water before completion of the storage capacity. The whole scheme is scheduled for 1/ Income is of course also a function of the water charges and rice prices. The assumption of a per capita income of $200 to $300 a year in the delta once double cropping is possible does not seem unreasonable. - 53 - completion by 2010, but this pace is generally considered to be beyond the absorptive capacity of the countries involved. 139. The fast pace of the proposed irrigation may improve the net bene- fits of the dams, but could also have adverse effect on the economic structure. The agricultural methods in the valley are still quite primitive and the in- troduction of more than 6,000 ha of modern irrigated agriculture a year would almost certainly run into implementation problems on the human resources side. The training and reallocation of thousands of farmers would put too heavy a burden on the scarce extension workers, and would, above all, take much time. Most likely the Government will be tempted to introduce heavy mechanization, which would increase the capital and foreign assistance requirements, but would also lead to undEr-utilization of local labor. 140. The proposed irrigation program may also lead to serious regional imbalances. It should here be remembered that the middle and upper valley are much more densely populated than the delta. The original OMVS studies propose three hectares of irrigated land per family of six. Under this assumption it would take about 440,000 people to populate the Senegalese part of the irrigated perimeter (excluding non-farm population). Farm income would be roughly double the national rural average. The total farm population on the Senegalese side of the valley is estimated at 250,000 people with a natural growth rate of 2.4 percent a year. 1/ According to these estimates the fai:m population by 2010 would have increased to 570,000 people which is in excess of the proposed density. Since the percentage of farm population is already relatively low in the valley, it is unlikely that the non-farm population could absorb such a surplus. Despite the large investments, migration would have to continue at a pace of roughly 1.5 percent a year. 141. Higher population densities in the perimeter will probably lead to a better economic structure but will, most likely, also slow down the pace of the irrigation program. For example, a target of 2 ha per family would lead to a per capita income of about CFA 50,000 2/ which is roughly 25 per- cent more than the rural average. In this case, the more attractive outward migration, such as to France, would certainly continue and total farm popula- tion would grow by less than the estimated natural growth of 2.4 percent a year. Total farm population might then attain 450,000 people, whereas the increased target density would require 660,000 people. Since the resettle- ment of some 200,000 people from other regions would be difficult and costly, a substantial slowdown in the pace of irrigation would be necessary. 1/ Estimate Beyrard, 1974; the coming census will allow a more accurate approach to the manpower component of the project. 2/ At 1974 prices, not discounting the higher benefits per hectare that may result from more intensive agriculture. -54 - 142. This hazardous game of estimates may, nevertheless, lead to an important conclusion. The main advantage of a high pace execution of the irrigation component is in the returns on the upstream storage. This approach would lead to very high incomes compared to the rest of the rural regions but relatively low employment opportunities in the valley. The annual capital requirements will be so high that foreign aid sources of assistance to other regions will be largely depleted although some of these regions are also struggling with poverty and demographic growth. The investment opportunities in these regions may be smaller in scope than the valley project and will certainly not solve Senegal's long-term problems, but will, in many cases, be more profitable than irrigation. These are strong reasons for the Government not to concentrate exclusively on irrigation in the valley. A longer phasing of the irrigation scheme would be facilitated if it were technically possible to construct the upstream water storage in two stages. Present thinking, however, is not in that -direction. 143. For the more immediate future decisions on upstream storage will mainly affect the technical aspects of possible investments in the region rather than overall regional priorities. In earlier chapters it was estab- lished that the present. economic situation in the Fleuve area is not unsound and that any newly created employment opportunities will have to compete with migration abroad, the latter being remunerative both from the individual as well as the national viewpoint. However, the region badly needs local in- vestment opportunities to employ the remitted savings locally and to accom- modate the desire for economic progress that accompanies the widened horizon of the returned migrants. Mechanization of rainfed agriculture is probably not profitable in this part of the country, and investment in cattle has already led to serious overgrazing. The only opportunity seems to lie in irrigation. Such a project should either take the form of an advanced irriga- tion scheme, as mentioned before, or if the upstream storage is not going to be decided in the near future, investment in the rationalization of flood recession cultivation. ANNEX I Page 1 A NEW POPULATION ESTIMATE (Analysis of the 1960/61 and 1970/71 population sample surveys) Conclusion 1. Since there has never been a full population census in Senegal, there is some doubt as to the number of people in the country. Whereas most estimates of Senegal's total population are around 4.3 million for mid-1975, close analysis of the 1960/61 and 1970/71 population sample surveys suggests that actual population is probably slightly above 5 million. Related to this higher estimate, annual population growth is probably closer to 2.7 percent than to the 2.2 percent. which is used by many observers. In April 1976 the Bureau of Statistics started the first full population census ever held in Senegal which may eventually provide the basis for an accurate figure. How- ever, the results of this census will probably not become available before 1977 and will be too late to influence studies and decisions for the new Plan. An underestimation of population and demographic growth of this order of magnitude could lead to serious errors in the design of policies and proj- ects. This annex gives the analytical support for our suggested higher esti- mates. Analysis 2. On the basis of the age distribution of the population in the 1960/61 survey (see Table 1) it is possible to estimate the crude birth and death rates for the late 1950's. The mechanics of this method are as follows: ANNEX I Page 2 With the help of standard U.N. life expectancy tables for populations with a West African profile, one can calculate the number of births necessary to arrive at the number oE children found in the survey. The calculated number of births is then taken as a percentage of the population that was alive when these births took place. The latter figure is also derived by applying the life expectancy table this time to the older population groups. Assuming that the average life expectancy at birth in the 1950s was 40 years -- not an unreasonable figure in the light of comparative data for other West African countries -- the annual crude birth rate for 1955-60 was about 43 births per thousand population. With a crude death rate of about 26 per thousand population (following from the assumed life expectancy) an annual population growth rate of about 1.8 percent in the latter half of the 1950s would result. This accords reasonably well with other estimates. 3. A similar analysis of the 1970/71 survey provides less satisfac- tory results. It can be calculated from the figures in Table 2, that the implied birth rate for the period 1965-70 is 32.3 per thousand. This is well below the figure found in the previous survey or the figure of 48.7 which is the average for Western Africa. The U.N. estimates Senegal's birth- rate at 47.6. The unreasonably low result suggests a substantial underenu- meration of infants and children in the 1970/71 survey, amounting to over 300,000 in the age group 0-4 alone and over 200,000 in the age group 5-9. 4. Moreover, the implied total population growth rate is only 1.4 percent, which is subStantially less than other estimates and what simple observation would lead one to expect. The 1.4 percent would follow from a ANNEX I Page 3 birthrate of 32.3 and an assumed improvement of life expectancy at birth from 40 to 42.5 years over a period of ten years, which results in a deathrate of 18.3 per thousand in the 1960s. The implied population growth would be even lower if we applied U.N. death rates for Senegal of 25.7 per thousand popula- tion or the average for West Africa of 23.3 per thousand. This confirms the belief that there may have been considerable underenumeration in the 1970/71 survey. 5. If the total. population figures from the two demographic surveys are compared, the implied average annual population growth rate for the 1960s was 2.3 percent, which is roughly in line with most of the existing estimates. But if it is accepted that there has been underenumeration in the 1970/71 survey, the implication is that the 1960/61 survey may also have been under- enumerated. 6. While it is fairly clear that the underenumeration in the 1970/71 survey was mainly in the age-groups 0-10, the underenumeration in the 1960/ 61 survey is more difficult to trace. Some indication is, however, given by the sex ratios in each age group, which are shown in Table 3. The most im- portant feature of these is that they fluctuate wildly. Females exceed males significantly in the age groups 0-4 years, 15-39 years and 70+ years. The 1970/71 survey, also given in Table 3, shows less violent fluctuations in the sex-ratio but a striking pattern, with females exceeding males only in the age 15-39. A'match-up of the two sets of sex-ratios, shown in the third column of Table 3, indicates that only in one or two exceptional cases, for ANNEX I Page 6'j example the 25-29 age group in the 1970/71 survey (comparable to the 15-19 age group in the 1960/61 survey) are the two sets of ratios roughly consistent. Sex ratios in the age groups 30-34 and 35-39 in the 1970/71 survey were 81 and 93 respectively, which compares with 73 and 74 respectively for the same group of people in the 1960/61 survey (age groups 20-24 and 25-29). Apparently the low sex ratios found in the early survey were not a permanent phenomenon. Conversely the low sex-ratio (74) for the age group 20-24 in the 1970/71 survey is not reflected in the 1960/61 survey (10-14 age group with sex ratio 118). From the analysis of numerical differences between males and females (last two columns of Table 3) one would conclude that the biases in the 1960/61 survey have been repeated in the 1970/71 survey. Both surveys seem to show a deficit of males between 15 and 39 years old, and females between 40 and 69. 7. The identified deficits imply one of, or a combination of, four things: (a) There has been a mis-statement of ages in the survey; (b) Migration in and out of the country is an impor- tant element; (c) Mortality rates are significantly different for men and women at different ages; (d) There has been underestimation in certain age groups.. ANNEX I Page 0< 8. Part of biases in the sex ratios may be explained by "age shift- ing." For the age group 40-59 it is quite possible that women have under- stated their age. This is a phenomenon found in the censuses of many coun- tries, particularly in Tropical Africa (see Carrier, N., and Hobcraft, J., 'Demographic Estimation for Developing Societies,' p. 2). Similarly it is quite possible that men in the age group 15-19 (conscription age) have also understated their ages -- or had their ages understated for them. Neverthe- less, no amount of 'smoothing' of these two types of age-shifting can explain the large underestimation of men in the age-groups 20-34. In the 1960/61 sur- vey there is still a deficit of about 50,000 men and the equivalent figure for 1970/71 is about 80,000. 9. It is highly unlikely that these deficits can be explained by emigration of young men from Senegal. Evidence exists that there has been substantial net immigration of young men into the country from neighboring states. In other words, the deficits of male population, if anything, are themselves understated. 10. In the above calculations the assumed mortality rates for males and females are roughly the same. Large diversions from the U.N. standard tables would require a specific explanation which is not available. 11. The remaining explanation for the sex-ratio discrepancies is that there was indeed significant overall underenumeration of young men in both surveys. Exclusion of live-in students and armed services from the surveys will have caused part of the underenumeration. The surveys may also not have been taken on a strict de jure basis and may have ommitted persons who were absent from their homes for less than six months. ANNEX I Page 9 12. A rough calculation of the magnitudes involved is that the total population for 1970/71 should have been about 4.4 million One could add to the total of 3.9 million pEople in the 1970/71 survey about 0.5 million for underenumeration in the age groups 0-4 and 5-9. The underenumeration in the 1960/61 survey is not easy to pin-point. On basis of the findings for the 1970 survey the mid-1975 population can be estimated at slightly over 5 million and the growth rate at about 2.7 percent. ANNEX II Page 1 MEMORANDUM ON AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE SENEGAL RIVER DELTA WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF FUTURE IRRIGATION WORKS (G. Feral, ILO) 0.1 This memorandum was prepared in response to a request by Mr. J. de Leede, economist on the June/July 1975 World Bank mission on migration and employment of low-income groups in Senegal. 0.2 Research concerned only the Senegal Delta, within the context of the construction there of the Diama dam. 0.3 Terms of reference, as expressed by letter from the Bank on August 12, 1975, were as follows: (1) Estimate total population in the region and population growth rate. (2) Estimate active Delta population (and growth thereof) engaged in: - agriculture; - agriculture-related activities; - other activities. (3) Estimate current income levels. (4) Estimate manpower requirements for the various methods of utilizing irrigation potential (for main crops and areas farmed per active person). If possible, indicate effects on family income levels. (5) Number and arrival patterns of migrant workers. (6) Problems linked to arrival and settlement of new groups. (7) Possible origin of migrants (which may vary for agri- culture and agro-industries, as may be shown by analysis of the labor force of the Richard-Toll surgar complex). ANNEX II Page 2 0.4 Owing to time constraints, income data were not considered in this paper. They will be discussed in a later one, now being prepared. 0.5 From the outset there was a problem in defining the spacial con- tent of the word "Delta". In fact, various reports and authors assign it different boundaries. The terms "downstream", "upstream", "lower Delta", "upper Delta", "middle valley", "upper valley", etc. are used indis- criminately and hence there are often widely disparate figures for the same concept. To avoid any confusion, "Delta" refers herein to the area indi- cated on the map attached as Annex A, i.e.: - the Senegalese river bank (left bank) which includes the Rao, Ross-Bethio and M'bane (occasionally referred to as Diagle) arrondissements, together forming the Dagana prefecture; - the Mauritan'ian river bank (right bank), which includes the Keur-Massene, Jedril Mohaguene and Tiekane (Lake R'kiz) areas, in the Rosso region. 1. Estimate of the total population and its natural growth rate 1.1 While it would appear that there are multiple sources, all current estimates for Senegal are in fact based on the 1970 government population sample survey. The table forming Annex B, which compares population figures from the 1970 census, Lericollais' 1/ work and the Fourth Senegalese Plan 2/, seems to indicate that all sources have in fact the same origin. We have therefore used the figures given in Annex C for the Senegalese side of the river. 1! A. Lericollais: Population and Migration in the Senegal River Valley, ORSTOM, Dakar, 1974. 2/ Fourth Four-Year Economic and Social Development Plan (1973-77), Regional River Plan, October 1973. ANNEX II Page 3 1.2 For the Mauritanian side, Lericollais' figures seem to be the most reliable, if not the only ones. (Annex D) 1.3 The figures adopted for total population are therefore: Senegal 55,750 Mauritania 65,500 Total 121,250 1.4 Regarding natural population growth rate, several estimates exist, which are given by source below: - according to the Office of Statistics, 1972: 0.8% for the river region; - according to the Fourth Plan (Item 101, Human Resources): 1.7% for the river region. These figures are for the total population and do not distinguish among ethnic groups, which show different profiles. The MISOES 1/ (Socio-Economic Mission to the Senegal River) study, based on field surveys, distinguishes among ethnic groups. It gives the following estimates: - Toucouleurs, Peuls: birth: 47.5% mortality: 23.7% average growth: 2.4% - Maures: average growth: 1.1% for Beidans (white Maures 2/): 0.7% for Harratines (black Maures): 1.5% 1.5 Average rates of growth taken are: - for Toucouleurs, Peuls and Wolofs: 1.7%, the figure given in the Plan, 1/ The Middle Senegal Valley, Socio-Economic Studies. J.L. Boutillier, P. Cantrelle, J. Causse, C. Laurent, Th. N'Doye, PUF, Paris 1962. 2/ As these are arbitrary distinctions, they are of interest only when the economic behavior of the two groups differs. ANNEX II Page 4 - for Maures: 1.5%, the fLgure given by the MISOES surveys of black Maures, who clearly predominate in the Delta region. 1.6 Using these estimates, the Delta population would increase as follows: Natural Growth of the Delta Population Senegal Mauritania Delta AN T.P.W. M. Total T.P.W. M. Total T.P.W. M. Total 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1975 52,750 3,000 55,750 10,500 55,000 65,500 63,250 58,000 121,250 1980 57,388 3,231 60,619 11,424 59,250 70,674 68,812 62,481 131,293 1985 62,434 3,480 65,814 12,437 63,830 76,267 74,861 67,310 142,171 1990 67,924 3,748 71,672 13,530 68,762 82,292 81,444 72,510 153,954 1995 73,897 4,037 77,934 14,719 74,075 88,794 88,608 78,112 166,720 2000 80,395 4,350 84,745 16,015 79,815 95,815 96,400 84,150 180,550 2.1 Total labor force 2.1.1 Population by age group According to the figures given in the Fourth Plan, the population in the river region breaks down by age group as follows: 0 to 5 years 20.9% 6 to 14 years 23.8% 15 to 59 years 48.7% over 60 years 6.6% Although the Maure age pyramid is in all likelihood different, there is no great risk at this point in using the Senegalese figures. 2.1.2 Potential labor force We therefore assume that the available labor force in the Delta region is 48.7% of total population, or 59,048 in 1975. We can safely esti- mate the male segment of this total at 49%; the total male labor force in 1975 is therefore estimated at 28,933. ANNEX II Page 5 2.1.3 Employment rates In the absence of any other information, the rates used are those established by ILO, 1/ taking 1975 as base year. As the figures were rounded off and simplified, there is an average rate of 90% for males and 50% for females. 2/. 2.1.4 On the basis of the foregoing, the active population of the Delta region is estimated for 1975 as below: Active Population in the Delta Region for the 15-59 Age Group - 1975 Senegal Mauritania Total 1. Total population 55.750 65.500 122.500 2. Potential labor force (48.7%) 27.150 31.900 59.050 (a) male (49%) 13.300 15.630 28.930 (b) female (51%) 13.850 16.270 30.120 3. Employed labor force (a) male (90%) 12.000 14.000 26.000 (b) female (50%) 6.900 8.100 15.000 Total 18.900 22.100 41.000 1/ Manpower Projections for 1965-85, ILO, Geneva, 1971. 2/ We feel this simplication is justified in that we did not want to use coefficients depending on base figures of dubious reliability. By so doing, we wDuld have given a false impression of rigorous scientific accuracy. to take a specific case in point, the employment rate of females in Mauritania, is given by ILO as 3.83% for the 25-44 age group. One does not have to be an expert on the country to per- ceive,immediately that if this figure is far too high for white Maures, it cannot be applied to black Maure women, whose employment rate is close to that for males, particularly in agriculture. ANNEX II Page 6 The projections, greatly simplified because they do not take account of future changes in the various parameters, are as follows: Year Employed labor force Senegal Mauritania Total 1975 18,900 22,100 41,000 1980 19,940 23,600 43,540 1985 22,430 25,850 48,280 1990 24,300 27,830 52,130 2.1.5 The thorny problem of migrations now remains for consideration. Figures naturally need to be derived before the size of the labor force residing in the Delta region can be ascertained. Although overall data exist for migration throughout the river valley, they cannot be taken as valid for the Delta alone. Recourse must therefore be had once again to Lericollais' figures. First of all, temporary emigration to France effects the area only minimally. The figures show that emigration is still below 4%, however, a survey would clearly show that in reality it is closer to 0% than to 4%. It is therefore felt that emigration to France is of no statistical importance in the rural Delta area. As for the figures on temporary emigration from the country of origin, they obviously concern only Mauritania. Still using Lericollais' data, they are as follows: Keur Macene Jedril Mohaguene Tiekane Maures from 20 to 24% from 10 to 19% from 5 to 9% Peuls from 0 to 4% - "t Toucouleurs - Wolofs from 10 to 19% ANNEX II Page 7 Observations derived from these data are as follows: - Maure emigration drops off sharply in percentage from west (Keur Macene) to east (Tiekane, Lake R'Kiz). Since the great majority of Maures in the area are black, this shows that: (a) the possibilities of making a living in Keur Macene and Jedril Mohaguene are certainly fewer, as confirmed by a knowledge of the lands; (b) in contrast, in the R'Kiz area, where the environment offers possibilities for working in the tradiational agro-livestock sector, the emigration rate is much lower. This confirms that the black Maure is attached to his land and life style. As such, he is a positive factor and a significant manpower reserve for planned irrigation projects. Moreover, the Maures emigrate toward the Senegalese bank (as the Peuls used to) for purposes of transhumance rather than relocation. Therefore, at this "mapping" stage, we can evaluate the data as showing on the whole that migra- tion does not markedly affect the Delta region and that temporary migration does not significantly affect the potential labor force. Of course, when the planned Delta improvements are more clearly defined, necessary studies will have to be carried out, and should include an examination of such important sociological questions as the motivations and changes in attitudes of the people of the region if they are to become simultaneously the generating forces and the beneficiaries of the planned improvements. 4. Estimate of actual employment While the word "employment" is preferred to "labor", which makes of man a mere production factor, the most appropriate term would be "occupa- tion". ANNEX II Page 8 4.1 Estimate of agricultural employment As this type of estimate is very random, it is necessary to explain the origin of the parameters chosen and their utilization. 4.1.1 Farm labor on the Senegalese bank (a) Traditional farming The figures adopted on crops and areas are the most up-to-date available, namely those for the 1973/74 crop year, which, because of erratic weather, was extremely disappointing. Shortfalls registered in the area were 59% for maize, 51% for millet and sorghum, and 92% for groundnuts. However, harvest size and area cultivated are not necessarily interrelated; preparatory work is done regardless, and the peasants often sow several times. Neverthe- less, the areas under millet and sorghum -- both an oualo lands (river flood plains) and an dieri lands (rain-fed lands) -- were undoubtedly far below those of a normal year. Furthermore, the statistics indicate that only 1,100 ha were cultivated in 1973/74, although SOGREAH estimates show a potential area of 5,000 ha. The working times adopted are those established by MISOES, which are still valid. Breakdown by crop of work days devoted to farming on the Senegalese bank for the 1973/74 crop year is as follows: ANNEX II Page 9 Work Days Devoted to Farming in the Senegal Delta Region 1973/74 Crop Year University work Total work Crop Area time/ha time days/ha Groundnuts 6,680 86 574,480 Millet (dieri) 8,297 70 580,790 Sorghum (oualo) 560 86 48,160 Maize (oualo) 560 86 48,160 Cowpea (dieri) 790 86 67,940 Potatoes 39 86 3,354 Onions 732 86 62,952 Total 17,658 - 1,385,836 We can very arbitrarily convert the total work time into job opportunities (occupations) to obtain the equivalent of 7,300 jobs, on the basis of pre- vailing working conditions in the region, generally 190 man-days/year. (Using the theoretical full employment basis of 250 days/year, there would be 5,540 jobs.) (b) Modern or improved farming In addition to employment in traditional farming, there is the modern or improved sector. The Agricultural Services Bureau shows the following figures-for 1973/74: Rice 7,627 ha Wheat (SAED)* 10 ha Tomatoes (SAED) 143 ha Assuming intensive farcing is used, the labor needed is estimated at one adult per hectare per year. I/ Thus, there would actually by 7,780 jobs, * TN: Societe de'Amenagement et d'Exploitation des Terres du Delta (Delta Region Land Development Company) 1/ J. Chaumeny, Irrigation Study of the Senegal River Basin, SOGREAH, May 1973, RAF/65.061. ANNEX II Page 10 or- 83,,0_0) $ib ro~ni f %,, s.ee it as ow t possible to assess the amount ovf w3,O) :4, rth4 k;kttk" %i (InnPOss 0e t jo assess the amount k%Ssum 1%~,ý0O o s were avail- s1, -300 io were avail- ab>1ie, ini gr 1erlg o Ss eg a bank in 1973/74, it e ing understood eoänlk in 19/314' it einig undCerstoc~d thatt th br- ro Po in agriulture is much higher and that there wotul i g X- q %3 4.1.2 Agricultyal ep1Qlgymenlt n op Mauritanian bank There ae 99 specific data 89 Fe cutvte rPodcin o the Maurian:n §k.d, he gg areathe itrry estit tes. dLL _e .ýt anerpl taroytna:s -/3e7t at pPut e }°ou oc o area at 1,00 ha,1/ f Ai14 ebL9LRF 8 te ts th ou o°yernt wo d the rer ike M4,99 5 § 1,2ag.ygy= 04,000o maan-da ys/year; on a basis C- Li n ioå0 1 aboras/er on a8,basis, o.f 31'9 1a dsye/yee9a,, àþi swo'le pgv£e 66 j o1bs witth oa lo cr ops . there~~~ ~~~Wt ooqjo hgcro,gips.ýigt, f 3 -- F<pg di-ie,r ,c rcps.: Lke g' . i itsf is a larg e area , est ima ted J, u:g ra etmtc ~at 18,,(000 iha coir 56,,999 1en dygs,, eetyln to s0ome 3,000 jbs. -- gh 'ggi riegaegeso n wich nnow covers 5558 hha pr ovid es äb.ut C60.0 iobJ, étcpjgåp4g tiP c9kgrqtŽ et mma es . ÉArdqu]3ttjraa1 g eg ~egn tghe 3uKtanian bank is therefore Eev:al&a:ted att 11:4,223,0 jjgbÅ *. Hre aärs,ogt§pesaire d d Fscl t as thecbasis for ý 1u 1.Oi eacu.i.ateo basucis n for gl_ T_flqw agrte artrar, septadiats ce a stho gse> and gats, V. yeI Me äbtary S ii-s - Fphv ):tLydaagg cjptdpA:d A §OGtý gestict oruut th s.l co ae 1o/ PyD M An exa5, pp.2r2..Anex ANNEX II Page 11 4.2.1 Stockraising and employment on the Senegalese Bank In 1972, for the Dagan prefecture (i.e. the entire region in question, an area of 6,000 km 2) government estimates for 1971/72 were: - cattle 147,000 - sheep and goats 153,000 Using the standard conversion norm of 10 sheep = 7 head of cattle, the total herd comprises 254,000 head (147,000 + 107,000), which gives a poten- 2 tial charge of 42 head per km In fact, the actual charge is much higher if we consider that the region's 6,000 km2 are not equivalent to 6,000 km2 of good pastureland. Where pasture is mediocre, the usual case in this region, 7 ha are needed per year for each head of cattle, so that the potential normal 2 charge in the region would be 14.3 head per km , or 85,800 head in all. If one takes the rainy season -- when pastures improve -- as a base, an optimistic assumption of I head per 4 ha or 40 per km2 could be maintained. Hence the total charge would be 240,000 head. Three sets of data are therefore to hand: - low hypothesis, for mediocre pasture 85,000 head - 1971/72 figure: 254,000 head - top hypothesis, for average-to-good pasture: 240,000 head Taking 250,000 head as a working figure, it is still difficult to estimate the actual employment generated by the livestock, and all the more so since herding customs depend on whether the animals belong to a non-nomadic people (communal herds), or to the Peuls or the Maures. The latter, for example, do not herd their cattle, although their sheep are herded by a shepherd and two helpers for each 100-150 animals. An average must therefore be used that takes these differences into account. (Milking, regarded as a household task, is not considered in assessing employment figures.) Personal observations lead to an estimate cf one job per 80 head. Though perhaps rather a high figure, employment derived from stock-raising on the Senegalese bank can reasonably be assessed at 3,100 jobs. ANNEX II Page 12 4.2.2 Stockraising and employment on the Mauritanian bank Estimating the size of livestock herds is more difficult here owing to a lack of data. In any event, the local data are always very dubious as taxes are based on livestock holdings -- even though taxes were suspended during the drought. For present purposes, the Beyrard report 1/ is used as a basis for estimates. Area carrying capacities are: - for cattle, a charge of 2 to 6 head per km2 - for sheep/goats, a charge of 10 to 15 head per km 2 in Aftout-Sahel and 3 to 10 head per km2 elsewhere. In assessing total livestock on basis of available surface and carrying capacity of the land the following figures are obtained: - cattle: between 20,000 and 60,000 head. - sheep: between 30,000 and 100,000 head. Actual employment.derived would be no greater than: - for cattle: 1 job for 100 head; (ancillary care, herding, watering) - for sheep/goats: 1 job per 100 head; (herding and other) or, taking an average stocking rate, - cattle: 30,000 head, or 300 jobs - sheep/goats: 50,000 head, or 500 jobs. i.e. an overall maximum of 1,000 jobs. 1/ Beyrard Group, Integrated Development Program for the Senegal Basin, 1974; maps and tables, pp. 125 et seq. ANNEX II Page 13 4.2.3 Employment it agriculture and stockraising on the Mauritanian Bank A summary shows: agricultural jobs 10,230 stockraising jobs 1,000 Total 11,230 Again, it is preferable to say that 11,230 people are engaged in agricultural or stockraising "occupations" on the Mauritanian bank. 4.3 Employment in fishing The Beyrard report estimates the number of those employed in this sector at 2,000 many of whom, being grouped around Saint-Louis, are not included in this population analysis. However, a recent publication indicates that in the entire river area the 1974 census identified 6,522 fishermen grouped in seven river ports. I/ It would seem reasonable to assume that 1,500 individuals engage in fishing on the two Delta banks, 1,000 of whom live on the Senegalese side. 4.4 Total employment in the Delta For the Delta as a whole, the number of jobs in the context of present development is as follows: By sector Agriculture - Senegalese bank 15,300 Mauritanian bank 10,200 Stockraising - Senegalese bank 3,100 Mauritanian bank 1,000 Fishing - Senegalese bank 1,000 Mauritanian bank 500 31,000 1/ "Fishing in Senegal" in Senegal d'Aujourd'hui, August 1975. ANNEX II Page 14 4.5 Active population/jobs This relationship may be expressed as follows: Available active Balance Delta population 1975 Jobs Surplus Deficit Senegalese bank 18,900 19,400 - 500 Mauritanian bank 22,100 11,700 10,400 - Total 41,000 31,100 10,400 500 The above figures lead to the conclusion that: (1) On the Senegalese bank, the entire active population is engaged in agriculture, stockraising or fishing, although these figures are mis- leading because they do not indicate the high under-employment rate, and even less the low income derived from these activities. (2) On the Mauritanian side of the river, the employment rate is only 43%, although this figure must be viewed in the light of a stock- riasing economy where purely Western concepts of full and under-employment are completely extraneous. Seasonal migration to Senegal, which affects almost the entire Maure population (the adult males only) helps to raise incomes. In fact, it would be no surprise if specialized studies revealed that, despite apparent: under-employment, the standard of living of groups on the Mauritanian bank is higher than that of their Senegalese counter- parts. (3) Finally, the unoccupied labor force "float" augurs well for the future in that, at this time, there is no call in Delta development plans for an immigration policy, which would spawn a host of problems. In the years ahead, the Delta can be developed with its own human resources, provided that necessary steps be taken, without delay, to prepare the inhabitants for their new social, technical and economic environment. ANNEX II Page 15 5. Estimate of future employment 5.0 Changes in employment in the Delta region, in the context of irri- gation works made possible by construction of the Diama and Manantali dams, are extremely difficult to project, as final choices among the variety of technical possibilities offering have not been made. In addition, in cases where planametric and topographic surveys are not yet complete, the exact boundaries of the areas to be irrigated have still not been fixed. In fact, as indicated by the SOGREAH prefeasibility report referred to earlier, "studies on the works planned upstream from the dam are at a much more preliminary stage ... The provisional topographic survey is imperfect ... a 50,000 ha area of land is very flat and a simple altimetric error of 20 cm could change dam capacity by 10%". I/ However, an important step forward was taken when, on his return from a meeting of the Council of Ministers of OMVS* in Bamako in early August 1974, Secretary General Ould Ammar said regarding the Delta dam: "Not wanting to mortgage the future, we finally chose to build a 1.50 m structure that can be made higher ... This is an essential decision on one of the key dams in the OMVS program." Likely evolvement of the employment situation will therefore be examined only for the case of a 1.50 m Delta dam. 5.1 Projections for 1980 5.1.2 Cultivated land 1/ Prefeasibility study, SOGREAH, op cit, SOGREAH, Annex E, p. 14. * TN: Organisation de Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Senegal (Senegal River Development Organization). ANNEX II Page 16 5.1.1.1 The Senegalese bank By 1980, Debi.-Lampsar, with its total of 5,000 ha, will have been added to existing areas. It is also assumed that the existing areas, which cover a total of 14,400 ha, will be fully used. Details of the various areas and their location are given in Annex E. By that early date, develop- ment works are not expected to have affected traditional farming and stock- raising. methods significantly, for which reason previous data are retained. 5.1.1.2 Mauritanian bank The M'Pourie scheme will have reached its maximum of 4,000 ha (800 in state farms and 3,200 in peasant holdings 1/); in addition, there are 30 ha of irrigated wheat in Gouelit and 1,000 ha under maize in R'Kiz. It is not expected that the areas planted according to traditional oualo and dieri methods will have been affected. 5.1.1.3 Total cultivated area in the Delta Total cultivated area in the Delta is as follows: - Senegalese bank traditional oualo 5,000 2/ traditional dieri 9,000 modern irrigated 19,400 groundnuts and others 7,500 - Mauritanian bank traditional oualo 14,000 traditional dieri 8,000 modern 5,030 I/ According to the Beyrard report, Vol. III, p. 109. 2/ Assuming normal rainfall and flooding. ANNEX II Page 17 5.1.2 Total Delta employment in the primary sector in 1980 On the basis of the areas adopted above, agricultural employment would be estimated as follows, using the same data for stockraising and fishing (details in Annex F). Available active Balance Delta population 1980 Jobs Surplus Deficit Senegal 19,940 32,860 12,920 Mauritania 23,600 15,865 7,735 Total 43,540 48,725 7,735 12,920 Net Balance 5,185 At this stage, however, it is felt that the apparent deficit of 5,000 in the labor force must be offset by a certain number of observations: (1) In terms of jobs, part of the population was actually counted twice, once as farmers, then as breeders and/or fishermen. Experience shows that these activities are in fact often simultaneously exercised in the low season of one or other activity. Therefore, the figure reflects more jobs then actually exist. (2) It is doubtful that all planned improvements would be fully opera- tive in only four years; the number of jobs in the modern agriculture sector would therefore not have reached the projected figures. (3) It should be pointed out that, although total employment figures do not distinguish worker origin, the Senegalese deficit will probably be offset by the Mauritanian surplus. In fact, contrary to one published opinion, it is felt that the black Maure groups are an excellent potential source of farm labor, providing of course that the indispensable training and promotion ANNEX II Page 18 work is udertaken. The foregoing holds true only if the river countries con- tinue to allow free circulation and cross-assimilation between their respective peoples. (4) Potential full employment was calculated on the current base figure of 190 man-days per year for traditional crops. In the more modern perspective of a full employment figure of 250 man-days per year, total jobs would number 44,300 instead of 48,724, the deficit then being only 800. Thus, when the degree of accuracy of certain parameters is known, the situa- tion balances itself out. Finally, although a slight manpower deficit appears likely in 1980, it would certainly be made up for by gradual population shifts involving the upstream Dagana area and northern Louga. 5.1.3 Conclusion The conclusion is, then, that within the context of the planned improvements, there is no reason to expect significant population movements by 1980; and that present human resources in the Delta region, where the in- habitants themselves must obviously be the primary beneficiaries, will be adequate for area development. This is borne out by the technical prefeasi- bility report, which states: "If no dam is operational by that date, avail- able water reserves would not permit an increase in double-cropped areas (6,000 to 7,000 ha), although improvements in single-cropping could be con- tinued despite their lack of profitability." 5.2 Agricultural employment for a 1.50 m Diama dam Lastly, the dam of such dimensions would permit irrigation of 33,800 ha of gross surface area of "non-saline and easily desalinated" land in the Delta. As, in any event, 24,400 ha will already have been ANNEX II Page 19 developed by 1980, the dam's net contribution would be a maximum of 10,000 ha. We can assume that at that time, around 1985, all available areas will be developed, with employment reaching its maximum. Since employment will vary little with different possibilities of agricultural development on the irri- gated parameters, the parameters indicated in the previously mentioned Irri- gation Study have been chosen, i.e. 1,100 persons per 1,000 ha (see Annex 8). The developed areas will therefore provide a total of 37,180 jobs, plus so- called traditional agricultural employment. Success with the irrigation schemes may attract farmers to the new sector at the expense of the traditional one but the estimates given in this memorandum are based on the rather pessi- mistic assumption that the traditional sector will not be affected. It is assumed that the stockraising sector will continue to provide the same number of employment opportunities. By contrast, the dam will have a marked effect on fishing, where a loss of 1,000 jobs is expected. It is impossible for the moment to determine whether this affect the Saint-Louis fishermen alone or those of the upstream Delta as well. Total jobs in the primary sector in 1985 are therefore estimated as follows: ANNEX II Page 20 Available active popula- Balance Jobs tion 1985 Surplus Deficit Traditional agriculture /1 18,250 /1 (13,900) /2 Modern agriculture 37,189 /3 Stockraising 4,100 Fishing 500 60,030 (55,680) 48,280 11,720 or 4,350 /1 At 190 man-days/year: 26,500 ha of oualo and equivalent, or 11,995 jobs and 17,000 ha of dieri, or 6,263 jobs /2 At 250 man-days/year: /3 The jobs generated by the development of saline land, which is not to begin before 1983 at the earliest, were not included in these figures. Depending on the basis used for estimates, by 1985, when the improvements made possible by construction of the Diama dam to 1.50 m have reached maximum exten- sion, there will be a deficit in the labor force of 11,720 individuals (taking full employment as 190 man-days/year) or 4,350 individuals (taking it as 250 man-days/year). Again, these figures should be interpreted in the light of the following remarks: (1) General indications were given regarding the different parameters used for each set of estimates. With a slightly different choice, interactions may have changed results significantly. for example, what if the next census shows a 2.4% rate of growth in the Delta? (2) Estimates do not include Saint-Louis, a town on 84,000 inhabitants with ahigh unemployment rate and therefore a potential manpower reserve, which might be attracted if the standard of living ensured in the development areas appears favorable. ANNEX II Page 21 (3) No available general study consulted mentioned the land problem. Obviously, technical and technological alternatives and legislative and regulatory measures can have a considerable and at times unexpected impact on local attitudes, even toward employment. For example, the new land tenure legistlation in Senegal, undoubtedly viewed with suspicion by the peasants, hinders the development of certain areas. 1/ (4) Previous observations in respect of the 1980 horizon remain valid, namely, the overestimation of jobs in the traditional sector and of the pro- jected date for full operation of improvements. (5) In any event, only in 1985 could a possible labor deficit become a problem in the Delta region. But once it becomes necessary to use foreign manpower and/or encourage in migration, any transfer policy favoring migration from too far beyond the region should be resolutely opposed. After all, the Delta is not Senegal Oriental. If additional manpower is needed, encourage- ment should be given preferably to peripheral groups from the upstream valley, the strip north of Louga, south of Trarza toward Aftout-es-Sahel, and north of R'Kiz toward Mederdra. (6) Much work needs to be done to evaluate and weight the influence of human factors bearing on the success of such-a project. Thus, it is recommended that the time available be used to avoid what has unfortunately been seen elsewhere -- a technical success that becomes an ultimate failure 1/ See "Land Tenure Project" of Thisse-Kaymor, Sine Saloum, ISRA (Senegalese Institute for Agricultural Research) and CNRA (National Center for Agricultural Research). ANNEX II Page 22 because human factors were not duly considered. Full support is given to a recent statement by two specialists in development: "It is illusory to attempt the formulation of laws and rules of human behavior from the observation of people who live in an environment which has long been frozen in an equilibrium determined by technical constraints and who are now exposed to new technology to break these constraints,'a new technology that no doubt has been tried out before, but is completely unknown to the farmers in question. Development being global and integrated, a multidisciplinary and multifaceted approach to the environment is essential." 1/ I/ Jacques Faye and J. F. Richard. 鬱 勵 〕 TOTAL POPULATION IN THE SENEGAL RIVER DELTA ACCORDING TO DIYFERENT SOURCES MISOES Population IVth Plan Lericollais Arrondissements S " le Survey 1958 1970 1973 1974 Di agle (M'Bane) 16 200 15 408 16 000 15 750 Rao - 20 758 21 000 20 250 Ross Bethio 19 275 20 000 19 750 Total 55 441 57 000 55 750 Including the districts of G&Uodjima and Dagana, TOTAL POPULATION OF THE.DELTA REGION - SENEGALESE SIDE, 1974 ArrondissementsRao Ross Bethio Diag1 Total % Ethnic groups (M'Bane) MHaures 250 2 000 750 3 000 5,4 Peuls 5 000 2 750 6 000 13 750 24,7 Toucouleurs - 1 750 - 1 750 3,1 Wolof 15 000 13 250 9 000 37 250 66,8 Total 20 250 19 750 15 750 55 750 100,0 Source: Demographic studies of Lericollais-ORSTOM, 1974. TOTAL POPULATION OF THE DELTA REGION - MAURITANIAN SIDE, 1974 Arrondissaments Jedril- Ethnicsgroups Keur Massene Jedril Ti6kane Total % Ethanic groups Hhgn Maures 14 250 5 500 35 250 55 000 84,0 Peuls 250 1 500 750 2 500 3,8 Toucouleurs - - 3 000 3 000 4,6 Wolof .250 3 500 1 250 5 000 7,6 Total 14 750 10 500 40'250 65 500 100,0 Source: Demographic studies of Lericollais-ORSTOM, 1974. ANNEX E CULTIVATED AREAS - SENEGAL, 1980 (in hectares) Type Existant Project a) Controlled flooding 13oundotin Nord (50 %) 1 800 'hingar (50 %) 850 Kassak Nord 300 Kassak Sud 300 T ccl 800 Grande Digue 600 sous total 4 650 6) Total water control I. SAED Boundoum Nord (50 %) 1 800 Thiagar (50 %) 850 Colonat 500 Savoigne 400 Dagana 3 200 2. C.S.S Richard Toll (canne) 3 000 sub-total 9 750 total existing 14 400 Lampsar 2 500 Diagambal 1 000 Debi 1 500 total project 5 000 Grand total in 1980 19 400 Source: IBRD report 3984., 1974. EMPLOYMENT IN THE DELTA REGION, 1980 Sector Senegal Mauritania Total Surface Employment Surface Employment Employment Agriculture traditional oualo 5 000 2 300 14 000 6 330 8 630 di6ri 9 000 3 300 8 000 2 950 6 250 others 500 230 - - 230 modern groundnuts 7 000 3 200 - - 3 200 irrigated 19 400 19 400 5 000 5 000 24 400 extension service (*) 330 85 415 sub-total 28 760 14 365 43 125 Livestock 3 100 1 000 4 100 Fisheries 1 000 500 1 500 TOTAL 32 860 15 865 48 725 (*) See Annex G. ANNEX G 1/ EMPLOYMENT CREATED BY THE IRRIGATION WORKS IN THE DELTA REGION 1. Not included are all professional staff members, either expatriate or local. They can be estimated at 5.2 persons per 1,000 hectares. 2. Regular staff per 1,000 hectares are estimated as follows: - 5 for pump maintenance - 1 driver - 1 block supervisor - 10 monitors adding to a total 17 persons per 1,000 hectares, creating 3'30 jobs - for Senegal and 85 jobs - for Mauritania. 1/ For method, see Beyrard, Volume IV, page 196. STATISTICAL ANNEX Population 1. Native population of Senegal classified by region of birth and region of residence, 1971; 2. Native population of Senegal classified by region of birth and region of residence, 1960; Ethnic Groups 3. Population (de facto) by region and ethnic group, 1971; 4. Region of residence and of birth by ethnic group: Cap Vert, Urban areas and all Senegal, 1971; 5. Proportion of population who live in urban and semi-urban areas by ethnic groups, 1971; 6. Lifetime inter-regional migrants in each ethnic group expressed as percentage to the total population, excluding immigrants in the group, 1971; International Migration 7. Lifetime African immigrants in Senegal by country of birth, 1971; 8. Lifetime African immigrants by region of residence, 1971; 9. Lifetime African immigration by region of enumeration, 1960 and 1971; 10. Percent distribution of African lifetime immigrants and 'passagers' from other African countries, 1971; Internal Migration 11. Lifetime inter-regional migrants for 1960 and 1971; 12. Lifetime out-migration as percent of population born in a region and in-migration as percent of population residing in the region, 1960-71; 13. Lifetime migration-to urban, semi-urban and rural areas, 1971; 14. Distribution of Passagers by resident status, 1971, 15. Sex ratio (males per 100 females) of migrants and non-migrants by age, 1971; 16. Sex ratio of in-migrants and out-migrants by regions, 1971; STATISTICAL ANNEX - (Page 2) Internal Migration 17. Percent age distribution of migrants and non-migrants and average age, 1971; 18. Percent age distribution by migration status, selected regions, 1971; 19. Average age of lifetime inter-regional migrants, 1971; Active Population 20. Regional distribution of active population, 1971; 21. Active population by sector, 1971; 22. Growth of public sector employment, 1964-7h; 23. Distribution of public sector employees by place of birth,1968 and 1974; 24. Regional distribution of public sector employees, 1964-74; 25. Regional distribution of employees, 1972; Employment 26. Distribution of establishment by region and type of activity, 1972; 27. Distribution of establishments by type of activity, 1972; 28. Regional distribution of establishments employing ten or more persons, 1972; 29. Proportion of enumerated establishments of all sizes in Cap Vert, 1972; Handicrafts 30. Survey of artisan establishments (.Cap Vert), 1971; Miscellaneous 31. Statutory minimum wages, 1960-75; 32. Growth rates of population in urban centers, 1960-73; 33. Income from agricultural activities, 1970/71; 34. Income from agricultural activities, 1971/72. Table 1: NATIVE POPULATION OF SENEGAL CLASSIFIED BY REGION OF BIRTH AND REGION OF RESIDENCE, 1971 REGION OF BIRTH Senegal- Region of Residence Cap-Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Oriental Sine-Saloum Thies Total Year 1970 Cap-Vert 369,799 28,580 59,809 57,595 3,742 37,852 59,769 617,146 Casamance 3,784 455,242 830 3,146 4,948 2,560 1,401 471,911 Diourbel 5,258 1,105 513,697 8,942 480 8,885 14,634 553,001 Fleuve 4,913 2,691 7,336 301,494 734 3,032 3,840 324,040 Senegal-Oriental 1,138 2,561 1,466 7,985 178,234 8,837 617 200,838 Sine-Saloum 5,899 3,776 38,480 14,825 4,958 598,668 13,475 680,081 Thies 12,760 2,120 28,315 12,590 603 16,711 432,601 505,700 /1 TOTAL 403,551 496,075 649,933 406,577 193,699 676,545 526,337 3,352,717 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976);derived from 1970/71 population sample survey, second round, de facto population. /1 This total does not include immigrants and is therefore about 267,000 lower than the total on some of the other tables based on the survey. Table 2: NATIVE POPULATION OF SENEGAL CLASSIFIED BY REGION OF BIRTH AND REGION OF RESIDENCE, 1960 REGION OF BIRTH Senegal- Region of Residence Cap-Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Oriental Sine-Saloum Thies Total Year 1960 Cap-Vert 233,280. 12,180 32,560 35,640 2,660 14,840 35,840 367,000 Casamance 560 482,040 1,080 2,080 - 4,940 420 491,120 Diourbel 3,400 640 478,300 4,040 200 4,440 8,820 499,840 Fleuve 2,100 360 12,480 314,880 2,840 620 1,220 334,500 Senegal-Oriental 60 60 140 200 124,240 20 - 124,720 Sine-Saloum 7,160 4,480 53,960 14,260 1,160 592,200 27,060 700,280 Thies 8,100 1,300 11,860 9,440 580 5,720 361,420 398,420 TOTAL 254,660 501,060 590,380 380,540 131,680 622,780 434,780 2,915,880 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 3: POPULATION (de facto) BY REGION AND ETHNIC GROUP, 1971 All others Peuls Bambaras Casamance and not Wolof Serer Toucouleur Soudan Guinea known Total Cap Vert 329,000 75,000 143,000 44,000 37,000 42,000 671,000 Casamance Urban 8,000 2,000 15,000 15,000 32,000 73,000 Semi-Urban 4,000 1,000 13,000 14,000 78,000 111,000 Rural 2,000 1,000 149,000 105,000 132.000 390; 000 Diourbel Urban 49,000 9,000 13,000 3,000 - 81:,000 Semi-Urban 40,000 5,000 9,000 1,000 - 59,000 Rural 266,000 104,000 42,000 2,000 - 426,000 Fleuve Urban 55,000 2,000 9,000 3,000 - 75,000 Semi-Urban 33,000 - 60,000 6,000 - 101,000 Rural 27,000 2,000 104,000 14,000 2,000 162,000 Oriental Urban 4,000 1,000 5,000 11,000 -24,000 Semi-Urban 2,000 - 5,000 16,000- - 24,000 Rural 30,000 - 95,000 25,000 15,000 184,000 Sine-Saloum Urban 36,000 14,000 16,000 8,000 2,000 77,000 Semi-Urban 45,000 52,000 12,000 3,000 1,000 118,000 Rural 275,000 135,000 82,000 28,000 1,000 532,000 Thies Urban 94,000 15,000 23,000 7,000 2,000 149,000 Semi-Urban 22,000 45,000 9,000 1,000 - 79,000 Rural 143,000 117,000 21,000 3,000 - 287,000 All Senegal Urban 57-6,000 113,000 224,000 90,000 75,000 66,000 1,149,000 Semi-Urban 146,000 103,000 108,000 42,000 80,000 11,000 492,000 Rural 742,000 358,000 493,000 177,000 151,000 58,000 1,980,000 TOTAL 1,464,000 580,000~ 3,620,000 Source: Demographic Survey 1970-71, Second Round Notes: 1. All figures are rounded to the nearest 1,000 for clarity. 2. Errors in totals due to rounding; 3. Semi-urban is defined as 1,000 - 9,999; 4. Of those classified as 'others and not known', 63,000 are Mauritaneans ('l4aures'). Table 4: REGION OF RESIDENCE AND OF BIRTH BY ETHNIC GROUP: CAP. VERT, URBAN AREAS AND ALL SENEGAL 1971 Region of Birth Region of Residence Same Region Cap Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Orientale Sine Saloum Thies Total PerCe"Ldg & PerceuLage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Numbers Wolof Cap Vert 67.3 - 0.7 12.3 4.6 0.2 3.3 9.9 100 329,000 Urban Areas 72.4 1.8 0.5 10.0 4.1 0.2 2.9 6.6 100 576,000 All Senegal 82.6 1.2 0.2 6.6 1.9 0.2 2.0 3.6 100 1,464,000 Serer. Cap Vert 34.6 - 0.6 11.2 1.0 0.1 27.6 23.2 100 75,000 Urban Areas 52.7 0.7 0.5 8.2 0.8 0.1 20.3 15.3 100 118,000 All Senegal 84.9 0.7 0.1 2.8 0.2 - 6.1 4.3 100 580,000 Peuls/Toucouleurs Cap Vert 46.7 - 1.7 5.9 26.5 0.6 2.6 3.8 100 143,000 Urban Areas 54.3 0.9 1.4 5.1 22.0 0.6 2.2 2.7 100 224,000 All Senegal 73.0' 0.7 0.7 2.3 8.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 100 826,000 Casamance/Guinea Cap Vert 38.9 - 52.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 1.5 100 37,400 Urban Areas 60.4 1.5 29.5 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.8 100 74,700 All Senegal 75.5 0.7 8.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 100 305,000 Source: Demographic Survey 1970171 Second round; Notes: The line totals do not add up to 1007. because some small ethnic groups have been omitted. The Bambara/Soudan were omitted because their geographic location is rather indeterminate. Table 5: POPULATION OF CAP VERT AS A PROPORTION OF THOSE IN URBAN AREAS BY ETHNIC GROUP 1971 Cap Vert Other Urban Total Percentage Percentage Urban Wolof 57.1 42.9 576,000 Serer 63.6 36.4 118,000 Peuls/Toucouleur 63.8 36.2 224,000 Bambaras/Soudan 48.9 51.1 90,000 Casamance/Guinea 49.3 50.7 75,000 All other & not known 63.6 36.4 66,000 Total Percentage 58.4 41.6 1,149,000_ Source: Demographic Survey 1970/71 Second round Table 6: LIFETIME INTER-REGIONAL MIGRANTS IN EACH ETHNIC GROUP EXPRESSED AS PERCENTAGE TO THE TOTAL POPULATION, EXCLUDING IMMIGRANTS, IN THE GROUP SENEGAL, 1971 Total In/Out Migrants Ethnic Group Population Migrants (Percentage) Wolofs 1,441,742 232,017 16.1 Sereres 575,179 82,521 14.3 Peulhs, Toucouleurs 727,401 124,434 17.1 Bambara$, Soudan 263,968 23,383 8.9 Casamance Guinee 259,528 29,099 11.2 Maures 49,813 8,203 16.5 Paleo - Negritiques 15,674 513 3.3 Others, Foreigners 17,349 2,631 15.2 Non-determined 2,063 181 8.8 All 3,352,717 502,982 15.0 Source: IBRD Internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 7: LIFETIME AFRICAN IMMIGRANTS IN SENEGAL BY COUNTRY OF BIRTH, 1971 Percent Immigrants Lifetime of as Percent of Immigrants Total Population of the Country of Birth 1971 Immigrants Country of Birth Guinea Bissau 75,000 34 15.4 Guinea 57,000 26 1.4 Gambia 33,000 15 7.2 Mauritania 23,000 10 2.0 Mali 21,000 9 0.4 Others 13,000 6 - Source* IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 8: LIFETIME AFRICAN IMMIGRANTS BY REGION OF RESIDENCE, 1971 Country of Origin Guinea Region of Residence Gambia Guinea Bissau Mali Mauritania Others Total Senegal 33,281. 56,820 74,773 21,114 23,242 13,112 222,342 Cap-Vert 1,680 15,604 2,386 6,235 7,243 4,829 37,977 Casamance 15,881 12,260 71,470 1,074 355 362 101,402 Diourbel - 519 59 568 2,140 120 3,406 Fleuve 46 398 193 648 7,346 380 9,011 Senegal Oriental 6,61T. 12,055 71 4,256 2,020 244 25,257 Sine-Saloum 8,657 14,816 255 6,737 1,896 6,478 38,839 Thies 406 1,168 339 1,596 2,242 699 6,450 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 9: LIFETIME AFRICAN IMMIGRATION BY REGION OF ENUMERATION, 1960 AND 1971 Lifetime Migration period Migration Region 1960 1970 1960-70 Senegal 128,540 222,342 114,000 Cap-Vert 29,660 37,977 13,000 Casamance 36,940 101,402 70,000 Diourbel 1,780 3,406 2,000 Fleuve 7,320 9,011 3,000 Senegal Oriental 26,440 35,257 3,000 Sine-Saloum 19,720 38,839 22,000 Thies 6,680 6,450 1,000 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1.976). Table 10: PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF AFRICAN LIFETIME IMMIGRANTS AND PASSAGERS FROM OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES, 1971 Lifetime Countries Immigrants Passagers Guinea Bissau 33.6 31.2 Guinea 25.6 16.8 Gambia 15.0 14.2 Maur,itania 10.4 25.9 Mali 9.5 7.9 Others 5.9 3.9 TOTAL 100 100 Source: IBRD Internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 11: LIFETIME INTER-REGIONAL MIGRANTS FOR 1960 AND 1971 SENEGAL 1960. 1971 Net Migration During 1960-1971 In- Out- Net- In- Out- Net- Among Among Region Migrants- Migrants Migration Migrants Migrants Migration Out-born In-born Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Cap-Vert 133,720 21,380 +112,340 247,347 33,752 +213,595 +140,371 16,648 +123,723 Casamance 9,080 19,020 - 9,940 16,669 40,833 - 24,164 + 9,405 - 25,617 - 16,212 Diourbel 21,540 112,080 - 90,540 39,304 136,236 - 96,932 + 22,072 - 46,572 - 24,500 Fleuve 19,620 65,660 - 46,040 22,546 105,083 - 82,537 + 6,850 - 52,555 - 45,705 Senegal Oriental 480 7,440 - 6,960 22,604 15,465 + 7,139 + 22,220 - 9,513 + 12,707 Sine-Saloum 108,080 30,580 + 77,500 81,413 77,877 + 3,536 - 5,051 - 53,413 - 58,464 Thies 37,000 73,360 - 36,360 73,099 93,736 - 20,637 + 43,499 - 35,048 + 8,451 - TOTAL 329,520 329,520 - 502,982 502,982 - +239,366 -239,366 - Note: The calculation of the net-migration is based on an estimated survival ratio of 80 percent for the period July 1, 1960 - March 1, 1971. The United Nations estimate of eo for 1965-1970 for Senegal is 41.0 (for 0 both sexes; United Nations Demographic Yearbook 1970, page 712). Model West life tables of mortality level 10 indicate an eo of 42.5 years for females and 39.7 years for males. The values of T10/To in this life tables are approxYmately .819 for females and .812 for males. On the basis of these two survival ratios, it is assumed that a survival ratio of .80 for both sexes would be a fair approximation to the actual survival ratio (which is unknown) for the period mentioned. Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 12: LIFETIME OUT-MIGRATION AS PERCENT OF POPULATION BORN IN A REGION AND LIFETIME IN-MIGRATION AS PERCENT OF POPULATION RESIDING IN THE REGION SENEGAL 1960-1971 Lifetime In-Migration Lifetime Out-Migration as Percent of Population as Percent of Population Residing in the Region Born in the Region (Excluding Immigrants) Region 1960 1971 1960 1971 Cap-Vert 8.40 8.36 30.15 36.88 Casamance 3.8 8.23 1.71 2.90 Diourbel 18.98 20.96 4.28 6.95 Fleuve 17.25 25.85 5.68 6.68 Senegal Oriental 5.65 7.98 0.32 9.76 Sine-Saloum 4.91 11.51 14.86 11.20 Thies 16.87 17.81 9.03 14.22 SENEGAL 11.30 15.00 11.30 15.00 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 13: LIFETIME MIGRATION TO URBAN, SEMI-URBAN AND RURAL AREAS, 1971 Migrants as Percent Lifetime of Total Population Area In-Migrarts in the Area Urban 333,000 31 Semi-Urban 43,000 9 Rural 127,000 7 TOTAL 503,000 15 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 14: DISTRIBUTION OF PASSAGERS BY RESIDENT STATUS, 1971 Intra- Inter-Regional International (African) Regional /1 /2 Resident Status Passagers Passagers Migrants Passagers Urban 43 63 66 33 Semi-Urban 15 13 9 9 Rural 42 24 25 58 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). /1 Passagers for less than six months in their present residence. /2 Lifetime migrants,including passagers. Table 15: SEX RATIO (MALES PER 100 FEMALES) OF MIGRANTS AND NON-MIGRANTS BY AGE, 1971 Inter-Regional Migrants Passagers Immi- Semi- Intra- Inter- Non- Non- Age Group grants Total Urban Urban Rural All Regional Regional Immigrants Migrants 0-14 103 89 82 95 107 92 94 88 104 105 15-34 87 65 71 59 50 74 64 94 71 72 35-64 165 110 121 92 91 130 121 146 91 86 65+ 205 113 103 140 114 86 92 78 118 120 All Ages 117 86 89 85 80 89 84 99 91 91 Source: IBRD internal working.paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). /1 Table 16: SEX RATIO OF IN-MIGRANTS AND OUT-MIGRANTS BY REGIONS, 1971 In-Migrants Out-Migrants Region 0-14 15-34 35-64 All Ages 0-14 15-34 35-64 All Ages Cap-Vert 75 71 128 89 96 79 142 96 Casamance 98 78 201 114 71 82 175 95 Diourbel 111 50 70 73 88 58 91 78 Fleuve 95 89 159 104 88 66 123 93 Senegal-Oriental 93 69 105 89 113 82 161 113 Sine Saloum 107 55 105 89 88 65 123 85 Thies 95 48 72 70 92 60 100 81 All Regions 90 65 110 86 90 65 110 86 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). /1 Males per 100 females. Table 17: PERCENT AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRANTS AND NON-MIGRANTS AND AVERAGE AGE, 1971 Inter-Regional Nigrants Passagers Non- Immi- Semi- Intra- Inter- Immi- Non- Age grants All Urban Urban Rural Regional Regional grants Migrants 0-14 16 22 20 34 21 41 32 46 50 15-34 43 38 42 28 33 40 47 29 28 35-64 35 34 34 30 37 17 19 21 19 65+ 06 06 04 08 09 02 02 04 03 All 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Average Age 33.6 32.2 31.7 30.0 34.5 22.8 25.0 23.8 22.2 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent: Years, (January, 1976). Table 18: PERCENT AGE DISTRIBUTION BY MIGRATION STATUS, SELECTED REGIONS, 1971 PERCENT AGE DISTRIBUTION Cap-Vert Casamance Senegal-Oriental In- Out- Non- In- Out- Non- In- Out- Non- Age Group Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration 0-14 17.3 64.6 61.5 38.9 21.8 48.3 18.1 26.5 49.5 15-34 45.0 23.1 22.6 31.8 53.8 28.6 30.2 43.7 31.4 35-64 34.2 10.0 8.5 26.1 22.5 20.4 42.4 27.0 17.0 65+ 3.5 2.3 1.3 3.2 1.9 2.7 9.3 2.8 2.1 All Ages 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January. 1976) Table 19: AVERAGE AGE OF LIFETIME INTER-REGIONAL MIGRANTS, 1971 Average Age of Region In-Migrants Out-Migrants Non-Migrants Cap-Vert 32.0 27.2 15.5 Casamance 25.9 27.6 22.6 Diourbel 31.1 36.6 24.8 Fleuve 23.3 35.7 23.7 Senegal-Oriental 31.3 29.9 21.3 Sine-Saloum 36.5 28.2 23.0 Thies 32.8 32.8 23.1 Senegal 32.2 32.2 22.3 Source: IBRD internal working paper on Patterns of Internal and International Migration in Senegal in Recent Years, (January, 1976). Table 20: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVE POPULATION, 1971 Total Population Active Population 6 yrs and over 6 yrs and over Region No. % No. % Cap Vert 524,100 18 177,800 15 Casamance 460,900 16 239,400 20 Diourbel 463,500 16 142,300 12 Fleuve 261,700 9 74,400 6 Oriental 181,800 6 84,900 7 Sine-Saloum 582,100 20 301,600 26 Thies 413,300 14 149,900 13 TOTAL 2,887,400 100 1,170,300 100 SOURCE: Ministere du Plan et de la Cooperation 'Enquete Demographique Nationale, 1970-71', Volume on Active Population, p.6, based on second round 1970/71 sample survey. Table 21: ACTIVE POPULATION1 BY SECTOR,1971 Other Total Cap Vert Urban as Sector Cap Vert Urban Urban Total as % of Urban % of Total Primary Agriculture 17,038 21,550 38,588 811,564 44 5 Mining :365 331 696 2,277 52 21 Secondary Manufacturing 24,760 13,534 38,294 68,999 65 55 Electricity, Gas, Water .2,538 1,121 3,659 4,168 69 88 Construction 8,093 4,638 12,731 17,372 64 73 rertiary Commerce, Hotels, etc. 31,588 23,600 55,188 89,899 57 61 Transport & Comm. 10,922 7,333 18,255 23,915 60 76 Banks, etc. 1,069 450 1,519 . 1,558 70 97 Services 69,603 31,522 101,125 129,284 69 78 TOTAL 166,104 103,911 270,015 1,149036 62 23 SOURCE: See Table 20 1/ Excluding those unemployed who have never worked. Table 22: GROWTH OF PUBLIC SECTOR1,/ EMPLOYMENT, 1964 - 74 End of Year Total Increase Annual % Increase 1964 29,193 1966 30,569 1,376 2.3 1967 31,402 833 2.7 1968 32,048 646 2.1 1969 32,887 873 2.6 1970 33,295 408 1.3 1971 32,262 -1,033 -3.0 1972 32,982 720 2.2 1973 33,854 872 2.6 1974 34,816 962 2.8 average annual increase 1964 - 74: 1.8% SOURCE: Computer pirintouts of Ministry of Finance 1/ Excludes armed forces, which grew by about 2.0% annually during the period. Table 23: DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES BY PLACE OF BIRTH, 1968 and 1974 1968 1974 % Distribution % Distribution Number excluding excluding REGION (in Ngj total bother'l/ (in 000) total 'other' 1/ Cap Vert 4.4 14 18 6.1 17 20 Casamance 3.31 10 14 4.6 13 15 Diourbel 2.8 9 12 3.6 10 12 Fleuve 6.6 21 27 6.9 20 22 Oriental 0.7 2 3 0.9 3 3 Sine-Saloum 3.4 11 14 4.5 13 15 Thies 3.11 10 13 4.2 12 14 Otherl1 7.7 24 - 4.3 12 - SOURCE: As for Table .22. 1/ Born outside Senegal o:r non-determined. /1 Table 24: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES, 1964-Th (in thousands) Average Annual Distribution End of Year Increase % in % in Region 1964 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 (1966-74) 1966 1974 Cap Vert 11.1 12.9 13.4. 14.0 14,5 14.6 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.2 2.1% 42 44 Casamance 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.0 3.2 3.2 3.5 1.5% 10 10 Diourbel 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0% 8 8 Fleuve 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 - 15 13 Oriental 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8% 4 4 Sine-Saloum 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 1.7% 10 10 Thies 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.8 1.8% .11 11 n.d. 2.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - TOTAL 29.1 30.6 31.4 32.0 32.9 33.3 32.3 33.0 33.9 34.8 1.6% SOURCE: As for Table 22. 1/ Excludes armed forces. Table 25: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES, 1972 Region Male Female Total Cap Vert 49,188 4,870 54,058 Casamance 1,420 211 1,631 Diourbel 46 - 46 Fleuve 917 50 967 Oriental 528 17 545 Sine-Saloum 2,158 118 2,276 Thies 2,494 84 2,578 TOTAL 56,751 5,350 62,101 SOURCE: Ministere du Plan et de la Cooperation, 'La Planification des Rassources Humaine'. Table 26: DISTRIBUTION OF ESTABLISHMENTS BY REGION AND TYPE OF ACTIVITY, 1972 Type. of Activity Cap Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Oriental Sine-Saloum Thies Total Agriculture. etc. 48 13 1 2 1 8 - 73 Mining 10 - - - 1 1 2 14 Manufacturing 243 4 8 12 4 12 12 295 Electricity, Water, Gas 7 7 5 5 5 5 2 36 Construction 7 3 - 6 6 2 5 109 Commerce and Hotels 874 63 28 50 18 100 52 1185 Transport and Comm. 117 22 20 47 16 50 18 290 Banks and Insurance 78 3 3 4 3 12 3 106 Services 153 50 3 17 6 38 20 287 TOTAL 1617 165 68 143 60 228 114 2395 SOURCE: Ministere de la Fonction Publique et du Travail, 'Structure de la Population Salariee des Secteurs Prive et semi-Prive en 1971-1972' Table 27: DISTRIBUTION OF ESTABLISHMENTS BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY, 1972 Number of Employees Activity 500+ 100-499 50-99 30-49 20-29 10-19 Total % Agriculture, etc. - 3 9 9 11 19 51 7 Mining 1 1 2 4 - - 8 1 Manufacturing 4 27 26 21 26 54 158 22 Electricity, Water, Gas 2 3 5 3 1 4 18 3 Construction - 2 8 13 13 22 58 8 Commerce and Hotels - 13 24 30 33 86 186 26 Transport 1 10 16 20 26 42 115 16 Banks and Insurance - 5 3 5 3 21 37 5 Services - 5 5 10 16 47 83 12 TOTAL 8 69 98 115 129 295 714 100 SOURCE: As for Table 26. Table 28: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTIOil OF ESTABLISH70ITS EMl,PLOYING 10 OR MORE PERSUNS, 1972 Number of -Employees 500+ 100-499 5o-99 30-49 20-29 10-19 Total Cap Vert 7 57 81 93 loh 216 558 7 Casamance - h h 9 6 19 42 6 Diourbel - 1 1 2 1 5 10 1 Fleuve 1 - 2 3 9 19 34 5 Oriental - 1 1 2 3 5 12 2 Sine-Saloum - h 5 3 lb 31 h Thies - 2 4 1 3 17 27 h TOTAL 8 69 98 115 129 295 714 100 SOURCE: Ministere de la Fonction Publique et du Travail,'Structure de la Population Salariée des Secteurs Privé et Semi-Privé en 1971-72', Table 29: PROPORTION OF EUUMERATED ESTABLISHMENTS OF ALL SIZES IN CAP VERT, 1972 Cap Vert 1972 Country 1972 CV/Country Agriculture, etc. 48 73 66 Mining 10 14 71 Manufacturing 243 295 82 Electricity, Water, Gas 7 36 19 Construction 87 109 80 Commerce and Hotels 874 1185 74 Transport and Comm. 117 290 40 Banks and Insurances 78 106 74 Services 153 287 53 TOTAL 1617 2395 68 Source: As for Table 26. Table 30: Survey of Artisan Establishments, 1971 knumber of establishments of each type) Handicrafts Production Services Type No. Type No. No. Jeweller 565 Furniture making 574 Mason 420 Weaving 354 Carpentry 262 Plumbing 117 Wood sculpture 167 Metal furniture Car mechanic 295 making 140. Leather work 52 Foring 290 Bicycle mechanic 79 Forging 290 Basket weaving 50 Shoe repair 586 Car body work 104 Pottery 118 Traditional sewing 1,596 Electricity, radio 256 Dyeing 428 Modern sewing 532 Watchmaker 171 Book binding 4 Upholstery 118 Photographer 101 Doll-making 14 Printing 25 Hairdresser 260 Necklace making 32 Bakery 100 Tanner 99 Knitting 3 Mattress making 298 Vulcanizer 61 Gowd decoration 1 Moulding 25 Laundry Ill TOTAL 1,788 Glass frame making 4 Optician 31 Picture frame making 2 Painter 228 Suitcase making 2 Miller 26 Tooth making 1 Scrap metal dealer 39 TOTAL 4,624 Well-digger 15 Motor repair I Tiling 2 Typewriter repair I Sewing machine repair 2 Key making I Beauty salons 4 Bed repairer 7 Mirror work 4 TOTAL 2,435 Source: Census of artisan enterprises in Cap Vert, 1971. Table 31: Statutory Minimum Wages (SMIG) CFA Francs per hour 1960 40 1961 41 1962 44 1963 44 1964 44 1965 44 1966 44 1967 44 1968 47.3 1969 50.6 1970 50.6 1971 50.6 1972 50.6 1973 53.76 1974 72.97 1975* 107.06 J&auary Table 32: POPULATION AND GROWTH RATES OF SECONDARY URBAN CENTERS, 1960-73 Percentage 2/ Centers Population Population 1/ Population Population Annual Growth 1960/61 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1960-1973 CASAMANCE REGION Ziguinchor 29,840 45,772 47,740 49,793 4.4 Kolda 6,050 16,137 17,670 19,349 10.2 Bignona 5,432 10,275 10,943 11,654 6.6 Sddhiou 3,500 7,076 7,585 8,131 7.3 V61ingara 2,604 5,332 5,716 6,128 7.4 Oussouye 1,045 1L90 2026 2,12 6.2 Total 48l471 89,500 91,680 920 6.0 DIOURBEL REGION Diourbel 28,560 36,010 36,838 37,685 2.3 Louga 16,280 35,670 38,452 41,451 8.1 M'Backh6 7,353 20,065 22,011 24,146 10.4 Bambey 5,998 8,100 8,343 8,593 3.0 Kb6mer 3,500 5,121 5,321 5,528 3.9 Linguere 2,800 6,430 6,957 7,527 8.6 Total 64491 111,396 117.922 124932 5.7 FLEUVE REGION Saint-Louis 48,840 81,204 85,426 89,868 5.2 Matem 6,000 8,500 8,789 9,088 3.5 Podor 4,682 5,000 5,040 5,080 0.7 Dagana 4,515 8,589 6,957 7,527 4.4 Richard Toll 1.440 1,995 2.056 2120 3.3 Total 65,477 105,208 106,9&9 115,948 4.9 SENEGAL ORIENTALE REGION Tambacound 10,478 21,760 23,370 25,099 7.6 Bakel 2,964 4,203 4,346 4,493 3.5 KAdougou 2.500 5,305 5,708 6,14 7.8 Total 15.942 31,268 33,424 35,733. 7.0 SINE SALOUM REGION Kaolack 69,560 96,258 99,434 102,715 3.3 Fatick 7,198 8,484 8,656 8,786 1.6 Guinguingo 6,634 8,500 8,712 8,930 2.5 Gossas 4,515 7,590 7,992 8,416 5.3 Nioro du Rip 2,769 5,841 6,162 6,501 7.4 Kaffrine 2,280 7,000 7,805 8,703 11.8 N'Doffane 1,931 - - - - Foundioune 1,623 2,184 2250 317 3.0 Total 96.510 135,857 141,011 16383.7 THIES REGION Thies 69,140 90,688 93,137 95,652 2.7 M'Bour 15,985 26,750 28,141 29,604 5.3 Tivaouane 7,900 20,409 22,287 24,337 9.8 M6ckh6 5,587 10,417 10,084 11,793 6.4 Khombole 4,100 4,137 .4,170 4,203 0.2 Thiadiaye 2,038 2,655 2,727 2,801 2.7 Joal-Fadhiouth 6.546 9,596 9.970 10,359 3.9 Total 111747 164,652 116 178,746 4.0 GRAND TOTAL 326682 1/ Population survey 1970/71; 2/ Since population figures are based on sample surveys, the growth rates derived from the totals should be used with caution. Source: Direction de 1'Aminagement du Territoire. Table 33 : INCOME FROM AGRICULTLRAL ACTIVITIES BY REGION 1970/1971 (In millions of CFAF) Gross Production Seneqal Cap Vert Casamance Dioutbel Fleuve Eastern Senegal Sine Saloum Thies Groundnuts 10,797 18 2,117 1,583 17 315 5,408 1,339 Millet - 6,814 17 1,705 923 493 498 2,272 906 Paddy 1,901 - 1,439 - 420 29 4 9 maize 697 - 334 - 196 160 7 - FoniciB-e,- 91 - 45 - - 45 1 - Potatoas 1/ 28 19 - 1 3 - 1 4 Sweet potatoes 199 - 90 - 66 - 14 29 oc - 1,664 7 548 329 - 3 127 650 Nitbes 356 2 16 150 107 10 10 61 Fruits 1/ 1,394 946 - 68 162 - 29 1S9 Vegetables 1,440 977 - 70 167 - 31 195 Palm tree products 2/ 384 - 100 50 50 50 100 34 (Sub-total) (25,765) (1,986) (6,394) (3,174) (1,681) (1,110) (8,004) (3 416) Fodder 3! 2,332 20 287 597 731 175 366 156 Bovines 3/ 2,559 12 302 653 732 270 465 125 Ovines and Goats 3/ 1,783 10 183 444 666 100 240 140 Equines 3/ 680 1 2 368 67 6 165 71 Porcine 3/ 656 82 435 26 8 - 36 69 Poultry 1/ 1,031 699 - 50 120 22 140 (Sub-total) (9,041) (824) (1,209) (2,138) (2,324) (551) (1,294) (701) Other food stuff 4/ 6,500 176 1.386 1,158 603 560 1,645 972 Energy 5/ 170 - 33 25 - 5 86 21 Raw materials 6/ 210 - 77 - - 100 33 - Gross farm production 168 2986 9 099 6,495 4 608 2 326 11_062 Sni less: cost of inputs 2/ 4.870 247 566 1,145 797 289 1.313 513 Value added Value added farm production 36,816 2,739 8,533 5,350 3,811 2,037 9.749 4.597 Value aeded fishing 7/ 7,100 600 928 - 1,657 - 874 3,041 Value added forestry 7/ 1,600 257 105 88 140 100 470 440 Total value added agriculture 45_516 3.596 ,66 538 5 08 2117 11093 87 8 Population (thousands of persons) 2,555 69 545 455 237 220 647 382 Agricultural per capita income (CFAF) 1_4 2_116 17.52 11 952 23 662 9 714 IZ,145 21.147 1/ - distributed in proportion to volume of fruits and vegetables combined Source: Statistics Department. 2/ - estimated regional distribution 3/ - elstributed according to herds of livestock 4/ - distributed in proportion to agricultural,population 5/ - distributed in proportion to volume of groundnut production 6/ - distributed in proportion to cotton production 7/ - Bank estimates. Table INCOME FRO4 AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES BY REGION 1971/1972 (In millions of CFAF) Gross Production Senegal Cap Vert Casamance Diourbel Fleuve Eastern Senegal Sine Saloum Thies Groundnuts 22,834 97 2,982 5,544 46 702 9,473 3,990 Millet 10,081 12 1,566 1,881 855 948 3,419 1,400 Paddy 2,272 - 1,534 - 587 88 50 13 Maize 770 - 342 - 132 284 12 Fo-to/Beref 78 - 30 - - 48 - - Potatoes /1 68 35 1 3 13 - 1 15 S.;et proes 168 - 56 - 56 - 18 38 Manioc 4,123 12 R 567 - 12 411 2,238 Nidbas 516 4 8 184 194 12 i0 74 Fruits 11 892 464 7 46 74 6 195 Vegetables l 1,758 913 15 90 343 - 15 382 Palm tree products 346 - 90 40 40 40 90 46 (Sub-total) (43,908) (1,537) (7,516) (8,355) (2,440) (2,134) (13,535) (8,391) Fodder /3 3,954 34 486 1,012 1,240 296 621 265 Bovines /3 2,442 11 288 623 699 257 444 120 Ovines & goats 13 1,729 10 177 431 646 97 232 136 Equines /3 684 1 2 370 68 6 165 72 Porcine /3 953 120 632 38 11 - 52 100 Poultry /1 566 294 5 29 110 - 4 124 (Sub-total) (10,328) (470) (1,590) (2,503) (2,774) (656) (1,513) (817) Other food stuff /4 10,140 274 2,163 1,806 941 873 2.568 1,515 Energy /5 270 1 35 65 5 8 110 46 Raw materials /6 320 - 116 - - 152 52 - Gross farm prod-ction 64,966 22 '82 1l 420 12-72 6.160 3823 17783 10769 less- cost of inputs 12 7,596 358 887 1,798 1,335 460 1,979 779 Value added: Value added farm production 57,370 1,924 10,533 10,931 4,825 3,363 15,804 9,990 Valte added fishing /_ 9,000 760 1,176 - 2,100 - 1,108 3,856 Value added forestry /7 2,200 353 144 121 193 138 646 605 Total value added agriculture 681570 3_037 IL853 11,052 i1 3,501 14.451 Population (thousands of persons ) 2,555 69 545 455 237 220 647 382 Agricultural per capita income (CFAF) Z _ L1 - distributed in proportion to volume of fruits and vegctables combined Source Statistics Department 2 - estimated regional distribution / - distributed according to herds of livestock /4 - distributed in proportion to agricultural population L5 distributed in proportion to volume of groundnut production 6 - distributed in proportion to cotton production 17 - Bank estimates: