Jordan - Second Education Project

Report No. 635-JO Appraisal of an Education Project in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan February 10, 1975 Education and Manpower Development Division Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region Not for Public Use Document of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Development Association This report was prepared for officiaJ use orly by the Bank Group. It may ~not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1.00 = Jordanian Ding (JD) -'315 JD 1.000 US$ 3.175 MEASURES 1 m2 = 10.764 sq. ft. 1 kM2 0= 0.38 sq. mille 1 hectare = 2.)47 acres FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  APPRAISAL OF A SECOND EDUCATION PROJECT IN THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. GLOSSARY BASIC DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..... ................ i - ii I. INTRODUCTION ....... ......................... 1 II. COUNTRY BACKGROUND .......................... 2 Physical Environment and Population ......... 2 Economic Development ................... 2 Economic Development Strategy ............... 3 Employment Opportunities and Manpower Requirements ..................... 3 III. THE EDUCATION AND MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT SECTOR 6 The Present System ................... 6 Educational Issues ................... 8 Educational Development Strategy ............ 9 Education Finance ...... ..................... 10 IV. THE PROJECT ....... .......................... 11 Objectives ........ ......................... 11 Irbid Polytechnic ............. .. ............ 12 Aqaba Trade Training Complex ........ ........ 13 Hotel Training School ........... .. .......... 14 Rural Development Center .......... .......... 15 Comprehensive Schools ..... .................. 16 Workshops and Laboratories ......... ......... 17 Educational Buildings Survey ........ ........ 18 Technical Assistance ............ ............ 18 Project Administration ........... ........... 18 Project Evaluation System .................. . 18 Cost Estimates ................. ............. 19 Financial Plan ............. 20 Implementation , ........ 21 Disbursements .. ............................ 22 V. BENEFITS ........ ............................ 23 VI. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ....... 24  TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) ANNEXES 1. Comparative Education Indicators 2. The Education and Training System 3. Projected Manpower Requirements 1973-1985 4. Projected Manpower Requirements in the Hotel Industry 1974-1985 5. Enrollment, Graduates and Teachers by Level and Type of Education 1972-1973 6. Actual and Projected Enrollments 1973-1985 7. Total Educational Expenditures by Sources 1968-1973 8. Ministry of Education Recurrent and Capital Expenditures by Educational Levels and Nature of Expense, 1973 9. Projection of Public Expenditures on Education 1973-1985 10. Enrollments, Outputs, Pupil/Teacher Ratios and Use Factors in Project Institutions 11. Curricula for Project Institutions 12. Schedule of Technical Assistance 13. Project Costs by Type of Expenditure 14. Unit Capital Costs in New Project Institutions 15. Contingency Allowances 16. Financial Plan 17. Project Implementation Schedule 18. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements MAP IBRD 11173  GLOSSARY COMPULSORY CYCLE Includes both elementary(grades 1 through 6) and preparatory education(grades 7 through 9). PREPARATORY SCHOOL CERTIFICATE Examination administered at the end of the EXAMINATION compulsory cycle, the main objective being the selection of the students entitled to further education at the secondary level. COMPREIENSIVE SECONDARY SCHOOL A secondary school extending over grades 10-12 and providing several specialized streams with a common core of academic and pre-vocational programs for all students. DOUBLE-SHIFT SYSTEM Use of the same educational facility by two groups of students, one group in the morning and the other in the afternoon. DAY RELEASE PROGRAM Cooperative part-time training under which trainees are released from employment to attend formal instruction for a given number of hours per week (e.g., one day per week). MODULAR TRAINING Method of training by which instruction is organized in self-contained blocks of training (modules), each of which is in- tended to build up one of the specific skills normally required in a given occupation. The method aims at improving trainees' employability at different stages of their training, thus minimizing the wastage of training efforts normally associated with early drop out. NATIONAL VOCATIONAL TRAINING An advisory body composed of representa- COUNCIL tives of government agencies concerned with vocational training as well as industrial and workers' organizations, and responsible for advising the govern- ment on matters related to vocational and technical education, apprenticeship and in-plant training. UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees. The Agency inter alia operates elementary and preparatory schools, teacher training institutes, and a voca- tional training center, and provides scholarships or subsidies for students admitted into government secondary schools.  - ii - JORDAN VALLEY COMMISSION An autonomous public agency responsible for the planning, design and execution of development projects in the Jordan Valley.  JORDAN BASIC DATA (1973)1/ Total Population 1,831,000 of which: Palestinian Refugees living in camps 229,000 Current Rate of Population Growth 3.3% p.a. Per capita GNP (1972) about US$270 Literacy Rate (1972) 59%o Elementary School Enrollment as a Percentage of Age Group 6-11 1o4% Preparatory School Enrollment as a Percentage of Age Group 12-14 63% Secondary School Enrollment as a Percentage of Age Group 15-17 31% Higher Education Enrollment as a Percentage of Age Group 18-21 27% of which: Studying in Jordan 5% Central Government Expenditures on Education as a Percentage of Total Central Government Expenditures 7.1% Central Government Expenditures on Education as a Percentage of GDP 5.0% See Annexes 1 and 2 for comparative educational data and a detailed description of the present education and training system. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistical data in this report refer to the East Bank only. S/ Including overaged students.   SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. As a result of a consistent policy of educational expansion over the past two decades, the formal education system in Jordan is quantitatively well developed. About 92% of the 6-11 year age group are enrolled in elementary education, while enrollment ratios are 63% in preparatory schools, 31% in secondary education and 27% in higher education - the latter being one of the highest percentages of enrollment in the world. In spite of some differences between regions, the system is quite egalitarian both geographic- ally, by sexes and in terms of probability for individual students to reach the highest levels of education. ii. As in many other countries, however, the rapid growth of the edu- cation system has led to or has aggravated structural imbalances and bottle- necks, which adversely affect its cost/effectiveness in terms of both quality and relevance of education. Among the major issues are the over-expansion of academically-oriented general secondary education, the under-development of vocational and technical education, the insufficient emphasis on adult training and retraining, and the slow adaptation of curricula to the changing needs of the society. A peculiar feature of the system, which has negative repercussions on both the quality and the cost of education, is the very high percentage of rented premises - in most cases uneconomically small and totally unsuitable for educational purposes. iii. These shortcomings are recognized by the educational authorities of the country, and steps are being taken within the framework of the Educa- tional Plan 1970-1980 to correct them. The first education project (Credit 285-JO), approved in January 1972, is assisting in implementing the Plan ob- jectives by increasing the supply of qualified elementary and preparatory school teachers, reorienting general secondary education through the intro- duction of comprehensive schools, and increasing the output of middle-level technicians and skilled workers. A second credit of US$6.0 million is now proposed which would reinforce the system of comprehensive and technical education being promoted by the first credit, and extend the reform to special- izations and types of education not included in the first project, such as farmer training or the training of personnel for the hotel industry. iv. The proposed project would include: (a) construction, furnishing and equipping of: - irbid Polytechnic; - Aqaba Trade Training Complex; - Hotel Training School in Amman; - Ghor Rural Development Center; - Three comprehensive secondary schools; - Extensions to 16 preparatory and secondary schools (science laboratories; pre-vocational workshops for boys; craft workshops for girls); and (b) related technical assistance.  - ii - v. The Project Implementation Unit, established under the first proj- ect and further reinforced, would also be responsible for the implementation of the second project. A special allowance compensating for the lack of competitiveness of present salary scales in the civil service would 'be paid to the personnel of the Unit and financed out of the proceeds of the credit. vi. Contracts for civil works, furniture and equipment for all project institutions, except the proposed extensions and the items included in the miscellaneous category for each institution, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding, in accordance with the Association's guidelines. For the purpose of comparing foreign and local bids, local manu- facturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a margin of preference equal to the existing rate of customs duties applicable to competing imports or 15% of the c.i.f. price whichever is lower. Bid comparison would be made in accordance with the Association's guidelines on the application of domestic preferences in bid evaluation. vii. Competitive bidding, advertised locally and in accordance with procedures satisfactory to the Association, would be used for the procurement of furniture for the proposed extensions as well as for their construction, where the estimated value of each construction contract would not exceed US$100,000. Given the wide geographical dispersion and the small cost in- volved, international competitive bidding would not be practical. S:Lmilarly, local competitive bidding would be used for furniture and equipment :Ltems costing less than US$2,000, which are to be included in one miscellaneous category not exceeding US$50,000 for each institution. viii. The total project cost is estimated at US$17.5 million, wiith a foreign exchange component of US$11.2 million. The project is suitable as a basis for an IDA credit of US$6.0 million to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.  I. INTRODUCTION 1.01 In February, 1972, IDA extended its first credit for an education project in Jordan (Credit 285-JO). The project was designed to help increase the supply of qualified elementary and preparatory school teachers (including practical subject teachers), support the policy of introducing practical subjects into general secondary schools to transform them into comprehensive schools, and increase the output of middle-level technicians and skilled workers. Accordingly, the credit (US$5.4 million) is assisting in the fi- nancing of: (i) a Polytechnic and Trade Training Center at Marka; (ii) two comprehensive secondary schools in Amman; (iii) a Teacher Training Institute at Salt and an Agricultural Teacher Training Center in the Agricultural School at Shaubak; and (iv) related technical assistance. After some initial delays in the preparation of architectural designs and in the recruitment of foreign experts, project implementation is now progressing well, but is approxi- mately 8 months behind the original implementation schedule. 1.02 The proposed second education project would reinforce the pattern of comprehensive and technical education being financed under the first Credit and extend the reform to specializations and types of education not included in the first project. The project was identified by a Unesco mis- sion, which visited Jordan in April and May, 1973, and by an IDA reconnais- sance mission, which discussed the Unesco findings with the government and agreed on a tentative project composition in March, 1974. Following the government's request, an IDA mission consisting of Messrs. A. de Capitani (economist, mission leader), K. Andersen, (architect, Unesco), H. Baritsch (technical educator, Unesco), A.S. Kinawy (architect), B.L. Masters (general educator), S.A. Naqvi (tourism training specialist, Unesco) and J. Weatherhogg (agricultural educator, consultant) visited Jordan in May and June, 1974 to assist the government in the preparation of the project and to appraise the project. 1.03 The proposed project was slightly modified during appraisal, in agreement with the government. One comprehensive school was deleted and another was added after reviewing regional priorities in the distribution of new schools; tne proposed location of the Hotel Training School was changed in accordance with the government's new plans for the development of the hotel industry; the distribution of the proposed extensions to 16 preparatory and secondary schools was modified after detailed comparative analysis of some 50 school buildings selected by the government; the program of technical assistance was reinforced and extended to cover a proposed education buildings survey; and a number of suggestions were discussed with the government to improve the relevance of curricula, increase educational efficiency and re- duce unit capital costs in the proposed schools.  -2- II. COUNTRY BACKGROUND Physical Environment and Population 2.01 The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is situated in the arid zone of the Middle East, bordering on Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Israel and having Aqaba as its only seaport. With the exception of the low-lying lands in the Ghor, the Irbid region and some limited areas in the highlands whlere ground- water is available, climatic and soil conditions are not generally favorable for intensive agriculture. The country covers some 98,000 km2, of which about 6,000 km2 lie on the West Bank of the Jordan River now under Israeli occupation. 2.02 Population in the East Bank is estimated at about 1.8 million, of which about 229,000 are Palestinian refugees living in camps and 90,000 are nomadic Bedouin tribes, and is growing at the high rate of 3.3% p.a. About 60% of the total population is below the age of 21 and about 41% of adults are illiterate. As a result of rapid urbanization, the percentage of rural population has dropped from about 40% in 1961 to less than 30% in 1973, although this trend has slowed down somewhat in recent years due to the resettlement schemes in the Jordan Valley. The employed labor force repre- sents only 20% of the total population with very low participation rates of women. Economic Development 2.03 Agriculture is the most important sector of the economy, accounting for about a sixth of GDP, 30% of total employment and nearly one third of commodity exports (of which about 75% is produced in the Jordan Valley). Limited water supply, fragmentation of holdings and slow progress in the application of new production technologies are among the main constraints. However, a potential exists for expanded output of export crops (in particular off-season fruits and vegetables), which could help narrow the large trade deficit in agricultural commodities (at present, about $90 million a year). One of the pre-conditions for realizing these potentialities will be the upgrading of farmers' education to cope with the technical and managerial requirement of non-traditional agriculture. 2.04 The manufacturing and m4ning sector in Jordan is quite small, accounting for about 12% of GDP and 7% of employment, but has been by far the most dynamic sector of the economy in recent years. The manufacturing sector comprises a large number of small artisan-type enterprises, but it is dominated by a few relatively large companies which enjoy strong govern- ment support. Cement, food processing, textiles and apparel, petroleum refining, cigarettes,5 wet batteries, leather products and paperboard are the most significant industrial product groups. The small size of the domestic market, the limited range of raw materials available in Jordan, the high transportation costs associated with the almost land-locked posit:Lon of the country and the scarcity of specialized technical skills represent: common constraints for most industrial activities.  -3- 2.05 Even after the loss of the traditional tourism routes in the Holy Land, Jordan was left with a good potential for tourism development, includ- ing outstanding archeological monuments, varied landscapes, favorable climatic conditions and the attractive Red Sea shoreline in the Gulf of Aqaba. Since 1971 foreign exchange earnings from foreign travel have been increasing at about 25% p.a. and now stand at over $30 million per year. In spite of the potentially vital role of the hotel and catering industry in the process of economic development, no institution is presently available in Jordan for the training of hotel personnel. Economic Development Strategy 2.06 The main long-term objectives of the Three Year Plan 1973-1975 are to: (i) increase employment opportunities in order to maintain low unemployment rates and reduce under-employment; (ii) achieve an 8% annual growth rate of GDP with priority on production sectors such as agriculture, mining and manu- facturing; (iii) improve the distribution of economic gains among the different regions and population groups, mainly through rural development programs, improved public housing and other social services; and (iv) eliminate the economy's heavy dependence on foreign budget support by reducing the budget and trade deficits through expansion of domestic revenues and foreign exchange earnings. 2.07 Industrial policy aims at increasing substantially the production of Jordan's high quality phosphate rock (from about 1 million tons in 1973 to 8 million by 1980), exploiting the country's deposits of potash and copper, developing fertilizer production, and reinforcing the industrial base by diversifying manufacturing activities and making them more competitive and export-oriented. A number of relatively large industrial projects have been licensed in the past two years or are in advanced stages of preparation, including a ceramics plant, a textile mill, expansion of the existing cement plant, a sheet glass mill, a second detergent plant and a new petroleum refinery. Three large mining projects (phosphate, potash and copper), a phosphatic fertilizer project and related port and railway development are also envisaged for the Aqaba region. Employment Opportunities and Manpower Requirements (Annexes 3 and 4) 2.08 The functioning of the labor market in Jordan is heavily conditioned by increasing labor shortages in the neighboring countries, particularly the Gulf States, which can offer salaries between four and five times higher than those in Jordan. Since there are no linguistic or other barriers  - 4 - against emigration, 1/ the outflow of manpower has greatly increased in re- cent years. 2/ As a result, the rate of open unemployment has decreased sharply from over 8% in 1970 to less than 4% in 1973. On the other hand, emigration has aggravated domestic shortages of skilled workers, wrhich has resulted in rapid increase in wage rates. At present, the number of Jordanians working abroad is estimated at 250-300,000; in 1973 their remit- tances amounted to about US$46 million. 2.09 Projections of manpower requirements and training needs in Jordan are made difficult by the lack of data and the uneven quality of available information. 3/ Moreover, structural changes in production processes and the small size of the economy add to the instability of occupational co- efficients. Finally, the future amount and skill composition of outward migration are uncertain. With these limitations, manpower projections can indicate only broad orders of magnitude and should be interpreted with cau- tion. 2.10 A projection of average annual demand for middle and high-level manpower during 1973-1985 was prepared by the mission, based on a conserva- tive interpretation of internationally observed occupational trends. The results are summarized below together with the present output capacity of the educational system: 1/ The situation has become so tight in some professions (e.g. architecture) that the government has started considering measures to restrict emigra- tion of highly qualified manpower. 2/ No statistics are available on net emigration of workers. However, the excess of departures over arrivals can give a rough order of magnitude of total net emigration (including non-members of the labor force). This has averaged 25-30,000 p.a. in recent years. 31 More detailed data on the labor market should become availablea when the tracer system, included in the first project, is implemented.  -5 - Projected Av- 1973 Estimated Projected Annual Estimated Annual erage Annual Outputs from Output from 1st Output from Pro- Demand the Educational IDA Educati9n posed 2nd Educar 1973 - 1935 System L/ Project tion Project 2/ A. Professionals 1,300 6,070 / 0 0 A.1 Science/Math. Based University Education 400 1,700 21 0 0 A.2 Arts Based University Edu- cation 900 4,370 /0 0 B. Technicians 2,15O 1,160 590 300 B.1 Two-year Post- secondary Voca- tional Educa- tion 900 300 240 300 B.2 Two-year Post- secondary Arts Education 1,250 860 350 0 . Skilled and 5emi- skilled Workers 7,000 5,800 360 1,150 C.1 Skilled Office Occupations (General Second- ary Education) 2,950 5,?00 0 0 C.2 Skilled Manual Occupations (Vocational Training) 4,050 700 360 1,150 j Civilian employment only. E Not adjusted for emigration and women's participation in the labor force. 3 Including students trained abroad. Excluding informal training in industry. Including the graduates from the vocational streams of comprehensive schools. 2.11 Although these projections are somewhat at variance with the fore- casts prepared by the National Planning Council (partly because of the differ- ent time period considered), the qualitative conclusions are virtually the same, namely that there are important structural imbalances in the present system of manpower development, which could affect negatively future resource allocation and economic growth:  -6- (i) the overall supply of university graduates already exceeds substantially the absorptive capacity of the labor market; consequently, it is expected that an increasing number of graduates will have to fill jobs in the lower occupational categories or seek employment abroad; (ii) increasing shortages can be expected of sub-professionals with vocational background, although some of the vacancies could be made up by university graduates with technical education; (iii) no shortage is likely of technicians with post-secondary arts-based education (mainly elementary and preparatory school teachers), given the supply from teacher training institutions and the relatively ample scope for substitution by university graduates in arts; (iv) while there is an increasing surplus of applications for office occupations requiring general secondary education (which, incidently, explains the large number of secondary school graduates continuing to higher studies either in Jordan or abroad), severe shortages are likely to occur for skilled manual occupations, normally requiring vocational training. Thus far, these shortages have been somewhat overcome by in-plant training or, to a lesser extent, apprenticeship training (e.g. in the construction industry). However, in the future these channels of training are unlikely to be able to play other than a complementary role, given the scale and quality of skills which are likely to be required. III. THE EDUCATION AND MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT SECTOR The Present System (Annexes 2, 5 and 6) 3.01 The formal education system in Jordan consists of six years of elementary education normally beginning at the age of six, three years of preparatory and three years of secondary education; university education extends from four to six years. Two-year post-secondary technical and teacher training courses are aiso offered. Except for a few univetrsity courses in English, teaching at all levels is conducted in Arabic by Jordanian staff. Education is free and, subject to the availability of student places, compulsory in the first nine grades. 3.02 The Ministry of Education has overall responsibility for educational policies and planning for elementary, preparatory and secondary education and caters for about 70% of total enrollments at these levels, the remaining pupils being enrolled either in UNRWA schools for refugees (22%) or in private schools (8%). The University of Jordan is an autonomous public institution, financed mainly by the private sector.  - 7 - 3.03 Elementarv and preparatory education are quantitatively well de- veloped. Enrollments more than doubled during the last decade and were 326,100 and 78,000 in 1972/73, representing 104% and 63% of the respective age groups (including overage students). Repeater rates are relatively low at 8% and 15%, with drop out rates of 3% and 11% at the elementary and prepa- ratory levels, respectively. The progression rates between the two levels is about 98%, reflecting the policy of progressively introducing automatic promotion within the compulsory cycle. In spite of some differences between regions, the distribution of educational opportunities by sexes and between urban and rural areas is fairly even. 3.04 About 78% of students pass the Public Preparatory School Certifi- cate Examination and the largest majority of them enter secondary education, which is divided into general, commercial, industrial, agricultural and nurs- ing education. Since 1968/69, enrollment has been increasing by an average of 7.3% p.a. to reach about 34,500 in 1972/73 (with girls accounting for 32% of the total), which represented some 31% of the age group -- a much higher proportion than in most developing countries. Of these, only about 10% were enrolled in separate vocational schools. Within general secondary education 8,550 students (43%) were in the scientific streams. Overall pupil/teacher ratio was 22:1, which is low considering the predominance of general academic education. Retention rates are generally high (96%), as is the pass rate (72%) at the Public Secondary Education Examination. 3.05 Of the 3,560 students enrolled in vocational education in 1972/73, about 1,600 were in commercial schools, 1,500 in industrial schools and the remainder in agricultural schools or in the secondary school for assistant nurses. No institution exists for the training of personnel for the hotel and catering industry. With the exception of the Trade Center operated by UNRWA, the existing vocational schools have been unsuccessful in meeting the needs of the labor market, partly because of the academic orientation of curricula. Very limited opportunities are offered for up-grading or re- training of adults already in employment. 3.06 Teacher training for the compulsory cycle is conducted in five institutes enrolling 2,240 trainees in two-year post-secondary pre-service courses; the annual output is about 860 and is rapidly increasing. In addi- tion, about 600 unqualified teachers are trained annually in the Teacher Certification Institute, established in 1970. Secondary teachers presently are drawn from university graduates who have taken education as a minor study toward their degree or from graduates who are completing post-graduate education courses. 3.07 In 1972/73 about 36,000 Jordanian students were enrolled in higher education, either in Jordan or abroad, which represents about 27% of the 18-21 year age group -- one of the highest enrollment ratios in the world. Of these, about 3,600 were enrolled in the Faculties of Arts, Science, Economics and Commerce, and Islamic Studies (Sharia) at the University of Jordan. Another 3,000 students were enrolled in post-secondary technical, commercial, agricultural, para-medical and teacher training courses. Of the 29,000  -8- Jordanians pursuing higher education abroad (mostly in neighboring Arab countries), an estimated 66% were in social sciences and humanities and 34% in engineering, medicine, agriculture and other scientific studies. Educational Issues 3.08 The high participation rates at all levels 11 -- which are associated with low drop-out and high transition rates -- are the result of a consistent policy of educational expansion over the past two decades and make the Jordanian education system quite egalitarian, both geographically, by sexes and in terms of probability for individual students to reach the highest levels of education. 3.09 As in many other countries, however, the rapid growth of the edu- cation system has led to or has aggravated structural imbalances and bottle- necks, which adversely affect the quality and relevance of education: (i) Partly due to delays in increasing the capacity of teacher training institutions as well as to high attrition and emigration rates, the number of qualified teachers has not kept pace with the increasing demand. 2/ At present, un- qualified teachers still represent 52% of the total teaching force in elementary and preparatory education. At the second- ary level 23% of teachers do not have university degrees and the largest majority of degree holders did not have any pedago- gical training; (ii) The pressure of social demand has led to an over-expansion of academically-oriented general secondary education not supported by adequate reforms of curricula and pedagogical methods, which has perpetuated traditional attitudes toward practical work and thus increased the disequilibrium between employment expectations and the availability of corresponding jobs; (iii) In spite of growing shortages of sub-professionals and tech- nicians (paragraphs 2.10 and 2.11), vocational and technical education have been seriously neglected: enrollments are still too low and maladjusted to manpower needs, insufficient efforts have been made (with a few exceptions) to adapt curricula to the changing functional content of occupations in Jordan, and instruction methods are generally too theoretical; 1/ At present, every fourth person in Jordan is a student. 2/ It is expected that the ongoing rapid increase in enrollments in teacher training institutions (including the newly established Faculty of Education) will progressively correct this imbalance. The first IDA project should be instrumental in achieving this goal.  - 9 - (iv) Insufficient attention has been paid to the training and re- training needs of adult workers, both in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, as well as to the problem of functional literacy (the illiteracy rate is still 41% of the adult popula- tion). 3.10 A peculiar feature of the Jordanian education system -- which has negative repercussions on both the quality and the cost of education -- is the very high percentage of rented school premises. At present, over 68% of all elementary classrooms, 50% of preparatory and 23% of secondary are rented. In urban areas these proportions are even higher -- 95%, 73% and 89%, respectively. Virtually all the rented premises were formerly dwelling houses, most of the rooms are small and very often lack adequate ventilation and natural lighting. As a result, laboratories, workshops and other special- ized teaching facilities are scarce and often too small to facilitate imagina- tive approaches to teaching and learning. At the same time, class sizes tend to be uneconomically small in spite of over-crowding and the low student/ teacher ratios merely result in higher recurrent costs, without providing adequate pedagogical benefits. Educational Development Strategy 3.11 These shortcomings are recognized by the educational authorities of the country. Accordingly, the main objectives of the educational plan 1970-1980 are: (i) Continuous expansion of elementary and preparatory education to provide nine years of basic education to all children by the end of the present decade; (ii) Expansion of adult education and literacy programs; 1/ (iii) Better adaptation of secondary education to the quantitative and qualitative manpower needs of the country to be achieved through: (a) continuous development and reform of curricula emphasizing scientific and technological contents; (b) pro- gressive reduction in the transition rate from preparatory to secondary education (from 77% in 1970 to 50% in 1980) with parallel increase in the proportion of secondary students enrolled in vocational education (from about 8% to 30%); (c) introduction of the concept of comprehensive education; and 1/ Following a pilot project which started in 1965/1966, a Ten Year Literacy Campaign has been approved by the government, which aims at complete literacy of the adult population by the mid-1980's. Literacy courses will continue to be taught in existing schools, so that the needs for additional capital expenditures will be very limited. At present, there are 86 literacy centers for men and 119 for women enrol- ling a total of about 4,200 participants.  - 10 - (d) re-orientation of vocational and technical streams to strengthen industrial programs, develop new specializations and methods of training consistent with the increasing diver- sification of the economy, and correct the theoretical bias of curricula; (iv) Increase in the proportion of professionally qualified teachers, particularly for science, technology and mathematics; and (v) Improvement in the stock of physical facilities, by (a) gradually replacing uneconomically small rented school buildings; (b) regrouping government-owned schools to phase out unsuitable buildings and increase efficiency of operation, and (c) providing the schools with adequate workshops, science laboratories and other teaching aids. Education Finance (Annexes 7, 8 and 9) 3.12 Since 1967, the pattern of education expenditure in Jordan has been obscured by the fact that the Jordanian government continued the payment of teachers' salaries and rents for the West Bank. If these payments are in- cluded, central government expenditures on education in 1973 amounted to about JD 8.2 million, or 5.0% of East Bank estimated GDP, which represents about 7.1% of central government total expenditure and about 17.8% of domestic public revenues. Foreign aid to education was about JD 1.9 million or 14.5% of national expenditures on education (Annex 7). 3.13 Over the past five years, public expenditures on education have been growing at 8.5% p.a. at current prices and total domestic expenditure at about 9% p.a. (Annex 7). In real terms, the growth has been much slower, probably in the neighborhood of 1.0% p.a. and 1.5% p.a., respectively, which compares favorably with the average growth of total enrollments of about 7% p.a. 3.14 A peculiar feature of education finance in Jordan has been the low percentage of capital expenditure with respect to total education expenditure. In the last five years, the Mtinistry of Education spent, as an average, only about 7% of its budget for capital investments, which was too low to provide the required number of additional classrooms. In practice, the gap has been filled by increasing the number of rented classrooms (para 3.10). From a short-term budgetary point of view, renting is attractive as the rents re- present only a relatively small percentage of the capital outlays needed to replace the buildings. However, most of the rented facilities are totally unsuitable for educational purposes and they are often too small to permit economical class sizes, which generates additional recurrent expenditures. It is estimated that with more economical (and yet feasible) student/teacher ratios (40:1, 30:1 and 25:1 at elementary, preparatory and secondary levels, respectively) the Ministry of Education could have saved up to JD 600,000 or about 8% of its recurrent expenditures in 1973.  - 11 - 3.15 Projections of future education expenditures on education for the East Bank (Annex 9) were made on the assumption that the government will succeed in keeping salary increases at a relatively low level (3% p.a. in real terms) and that total enrollments will grow in accordance with the pre- sent education plan (para 3.11). Allowance was made for the expected in- crease in the proportion of qualified teachers and for the need to increase expenditures for school maintenance as well as educational materials and sup- plies which are presently very low (Annex 8). Under these assumptions, pub- lic recurrent expenditures on education are expected to grow at about 8% p.a. during 1973-1985, and would absorb about 6.3% of East Bank GDP in 1985 -- assuming that GDP will grow at about 7% p.a. in real terms during the same period. Total investment required in new student places during 1973-1985 can be estimated at about JD 43 million in 1974 prices, which could be further reduced depending on the proportion of schools operated in double shift. The annual average investment would therefore be around US$11 million, which could increase to US$15 million to the extent that rented facilities are progressively replaced. 1/ This is an ambitious target which nevertheless could be achieved, particularly if the government's expectations are fulfilled that some 50% of the required investment would be financed by external sources. IV. THE PROJECT Objectives 4.01 The objectives of the proposed project are: (i) to expand and re- inforce vocational and technical education including adult training and re- training to produce the specialized skills required for the development of priority sectors of the economy (agriculture and food processing, mining, manufacturing industry and tourism); (ii) to support integrated rural devel- opment projects in the Jordan Valley through the provision of a pilot scheme of non-formal basic education; and (iii) to promote quality improvements, rationalization and economy of operation in both the compulsory cycle and secondary education by replacing uneconomically small, rented school build- ings and providing the schools with adequate workshops and other teaching facilities. The project would reinforce the system of comprehensive and technical education financed under the first education project and extend the reform to specializations and types of education not included in that project. Specifically, the project would comprise construction, furnishing and equipping of the following institutions (further details are given in Annexes 10 and 11): 1/ On an annual basis, this average would represent about 15% of the total fixed investments by the public sector envisaged by the Plan for the period 1973-1975.  - 12 - Student Capacity Estimated Accommodation Replace- Annual Student Staff Type of Institution Grades New ment Output Boarding Housing Irbid Polytechnic 13-14 240 - 110 - Aqaba Training Complex 10-11 630/1 - 400/1 80 Hotel Training School 10-11 & 13-14 460 - 300 - - Ghor Rural Development Center ungraded 90 - 1,000 - 1 Three Comprehensive Secondary Schools 10-12 3,150 3,150 1,900 - - Five Science Laboratories 10-12 240 - n.a. - Four Craft Centers for Girls 7-9 190 - n.a. - Seven Pre-vocational Workshops for Boys 7-9 340 - n.a. - - 5,340 3,150 3,710 80 1 11 At full capacity n.a. not applicable. Irbid Polytechnic 4.02 The proposed Polytechnic at Irbid would supplement the training of technicians to be offered by the Marka Polytechnic (included in the first project), by providing two-year post-secondary courses in three main fields: (i) food technology, with specializations after a common first year of train- ing in food manufacturing and fruit and vegetable processing; (ii) textile technology; and (iii) industrial chemistry with specializations after the first year in petrochemistry, minerals processing and chemical manufacture. Entry requirements would be completion of general secondary education (science stream) for industrial chemistry, industrial secondary education for textile technology and agricultural secondary education for food technology. Annual intake capacity would be about 20 trainees per specialization, corresponding to a total enrollment of 240 students and an annual output of approximately 110 technicians. Short intensive specialization courses for former students and support courses for institutions lacking the facilities available at the Polytechnic would also be organized as the need arises. 4.03 Training at the Polytechnic would be defined in terms of specific fields of industrial application. The government has provided an assurance that detailed curricula and syllabi, designed in terms of the functional con- tent of technicians' jobs in the Jordanian economy, will be prepared and pre- sented to the Association for comments within two years of signing of the Credit Agreement. In order to ensure a permanent liaison with industry, an Advisory Council for the Polytechnic would be established within one year of signing of the Credit Agreement, which would include representatives of pub- lic and private industry, of the National Vocational Council and of- the con- cerned educational institutions, and would be responsible inter alia for ad- vising on curriculum development, entrance criteria and evaluation systems.  - 13 - 4.04 Administration of the Polytechnic would be the responsibility of a Director who would be advised on policy matters by the Council mentioned above. A sufficient number of reasonably qualified Jordanians would be available for the approximately 20 teaching positions; 15 man/years of fellowships have been included within the project for their upgrading. In addition to the fellowships, about 5 man/years of experts' services would be provided to develop curricula and syllabi, and assist in prepar- ing detailed equipment lists. 4.05 The average utilization rate for workshops and laboratories would be about 68%, which is economical given the range of specializations offered. Weekly teaching loads per teacher would be about 20 periods, which is accept- able. The proposed Polytechnic would therefore be economically viable. Aqaba Trade Training Complex 4.06 The proposed Trade Training Complex, to be located at Aqaba, would provide full-time and part-time courses of various duration in five basic specializations (plant maintenance and repair; industrial electricity; in- strumentation and control; climatization and refrigeration; materials han- dling and transport) as well as pre-apprentice basic training and up-grad- ing, conversion and re-training courses for adults. Entrance requirements would vary according to the courses, but would include completion of prep- aratory education for full-time training; aptitude tests would be adminis- tered for all courses. The Complex would be built for an initial capacity of 360 trainees in one shift of 44 hours per week, corresponding to an an- nual output of about 50 skilled workers, 20 graduates from the pre-appren- tice basic training course and 150 graduates from part-time courses. When fully operational and with the introduction of a continuous work day, the Center would enroll up to 400 full-time and 230 part-time trainees, with an estimated annual output of about 400 trained workers at different levels of skills. 4.07 Flexible training patterns in modular form would be used to increase educational efficiency. Modular training would also help improve upward so- cial mobility of workers by providing training arrangements which could be utilized at any time over the entire span of a working life. Training would be organized on the basis of within-shop rotation, with each instructor as- signed to a given section of the workshop. Continuous relationship with industry would be assured by a Liaison Committee, chaired by the Director of Vocational Education in the Ministry of Education and comprising repre- sentatives of the National Vocational Council, the Director of the Complex and representatives of public and private industry. The government has pro- vided an assurance that such Committee would be established within one year of signing of the Credit Agreement. 4.08 Detailed curricula and syllabi, designed in terms of the functional contents of jobs in the Jordanian industry, together with master equipment lists for each specialization would be prepared by a team of foreign experts and consultants (about 5 manlyears), to be financed under the proposed program of technical assistance. Curricula and syllabi would be submitted to the  - 14 - Association for comments within 2 years of signing of the Credit Agreement. About 15 man/years of fellowships would be provided to train 4 instructors for each specialization as required to staff the Complex. It is expected that a sufficient number of qualified Jordanian candidates will be available. 4.09 As the present system of examinations in industrial secondary schools is largely inconsistent with the new orientation of vocational educa- tion in Jordan as well as with the educational concept of the proposed Complex, the government has provided an assurance that the ongoing preparation of a new trade testing and certification system applicable to all forms of vocational education will be completed by the time the proposed Complex starts operating and, in any case, within three years of signing of the Credit Agreement. Hotel Training School 4.10 The proposed Hotel Training School, to be located in Amman where the largest majority of the total hotel labor force is and will continue to be employed, would consist of a hotel school with about 280 student places and a practice hotel with a capacity of about 80 beds. The school -- the only one of this type in Jordan -- would provide two-year courses at either secondary or post-secondary levels to train middle-level personnel for the hotel and catering industry in four basic specializations (hotel administra- tion, accounting and control; reception and front office; restaurant and bar; kitchen). In addition, a one year course in hotel management would be offered to applicants who successfully complete any of the first three basic special- izations above. Ad hoc one year courses in housekeeping and storekeeping, and a six month course for tourism guides would also be organized in accord- ance with the needs of the industry -- in principle, every alternate year. In addition, short intensive training would be provided in the practice hotel for lower level personnel (waiters, barmen, linen maids, cleaners, ironers, washers, etc.). 4.11 The Hotel Training School would enroll about 240 regular students in classes five days a week; 100 day-release students who will attend the school one day a week; and 120 on-the-job trainees in the practice hotel. Annual output would be approximately 20 graduates from the managerial course, 170 middle-level personnel and about 120 lower-level workers, which should be easily absorbed by the labor market (Annex 4). 4.12 Due to the lack of local knowledge of hotel training, technical as- sistance would be essential for the success of the proposed project. Accord- ingly, a highly qualified foreign expert would be appointed as sooni as the Credit becomes effective to prepare course outlines and equipment :Lists and advise the architects in the preparation of architectural designs; later, he would be appointed Director of the Hotel Training School and would start work- ing at least six months before the inauguration of the school for a period of about two years. Another qualified foreign expert would be appointed as General Manager of the practice hotel for about two years, starting about two months before inauguration. In addition, four foreign experts would be re- cruited for one year each to prepare detailed curricula and syllabi for  - 15 - the four basic specializations, teach the courses and train their Jordanian counterparts. About 12 man/years of fellowships abroad would be provided to train four Jordanian instructors (one for each of the four basic specializa- tions) as well as the counterparts to the Director and the General Manager. 4.13 The practice hotel, in which all students would receive their prac- tical training, would be open to the public and function commercially with all the departments and services generally found in Jordanian 3-star hotels. Separate accounts would be kept for the school and the practice hotel. As the practice hotel is not expected to generate sufficient income to cover the total recurrent expenditures of the school, the government would provide educational grants or other form of financing sufficient to cover any oper- ating deficit. Moreover, because of the commercial aspect of the practice hotel, the government has provided an assurance that the liotel Training School will be legally established as a corporation within three years of the Credit Agreement date, with a Board of Management comprising representa- tives of public and private agencies interested in hotel and tourism training. Rural Development Center 4.14 The proposed Rural Development Center would be located near Deir Allah in the Middle Ghor, close to an agricultural research station of the Ministry of Agriculture and a new UNDP-financed training center for exten- sion agents. The proposed Center would function as a pilot non-formal edu- cation project to support integrated rural development projects in the cen- tral Jordan Valley. 1/ The Center would provide short intensive courses for adults in the afternoon or in the evening in rural skills, general agricul- ture (in cooperation with the training center for extension agents), coop- erative development, women's crafts, public health, nutrition and family care as well as functionally-oriented basic literacy courses. In the morn- ing, the Center would serve as a centralized workshop for neighboring schools, at both preparatory and secondary levels, catering for about 300 students (boys and girls). 4.15 The courses for adults would be organized in the form of modules of about 40 hours each, and instruction would be predominantly practical. The proposed facilities would include an industrial workshop with mechanical, electrical, plumbing, woodwork and masonry sections, a women's craft workshop, 1/ The IDA-financed Northeast Ghor Irrigation and Rural Development Project will cover the northern part of the Valley. The Federal Republic of Germany is financing the agricultural development of the Southern Ghor, while US-AID has committed itself to finance a rural development project (construction of settlements, extension of the East Ghor Canal and irri- gation of the Zarqa area) in the Middle Valley.  - 16 - a day nursery, an assembly hall and administrative offices. Equipment would be simple -- mainly of the type that the trainees are likely to use in their occupations. It is estimated that the Center could organize some 50 courses per year enrolling up to 1,000 adult trainees. 4.16 It is expected that the adult trainees would be drawn mainly from the following groups: (i) preparatory and secondary school drop-outs; (ii) young people (typically aged 15-34 years) employed in farming or agriculture-related activities; and (iii) adult farmers requiring training or retraining, and farrmers' wives. In 1973, the total population in the Middle Ghor was about 26,000, of which 13,500 were in the 12-65 year age group and 7,500 in the 15-34 year age group. The level of educational attainment was significantly lower than the national average, with about 77% of the adults not having completed elementary educa- tion. 4.17 The Center would be under the control and financial responsibility of the Ministry of Education. Coordination at the policy level would be through the Liaison and Advisory Committee of the Jordan Valley Commission. Organization of courses and scheduling of activities would be the responsi- bility of the Director, assisted by a management committee which would in- clude representatives of the local community. The government has provided an assurance that a detailed program of activities for the Center would be pre- pared and submitted to the Association for comments within one yea!r of signing of the Credit Agreement. Comprehensive Schools 4.18 The three proposed comprehensive schools (grades 10-12), one for boys and one for girls at Zarqa and one for girls at Irbid, would offer a broad curriculum incorporating pre-vocational training with academic sub- jects for all students. Each comprehensive school would enroll approxi- mately 1,050 students in each of two shifts, making a total enrollment of about 6,300 students, 30% of whom would be in practical subjects streams. The proposed schools would help reduce tlhe demand on unsuitable rented fa- cilities, thus permitting the replacement of about 20 of the worst premises -- which cost the government a combined annual rental of about US$38,000. Each school would also be available in the evening for adult education and com- munity development activities. 4.19 The proposed schools would offer four streams of specialization: arts, science, commerce and industrial arts or home economics. The curri- cula (Annex 11) would consist of three segments: common core subjects, specialized fields of study and elective studies. All students would study the common core of subjects outside their stream of specialization in each  - 17 - of the three years, thus becoming acquainted with the contents and skills of a wide range of subjects. Within the specialized streams, provision would be made for about 35% practical work in the sciences and commerce and 75% in industrial arts/home economics. The elective segment aims at introducing supplementary information and skills through a wide range of half-year, non-examinable courses with predominantly practical, life-long application which would not be covered otherwise in the formal program. This balanced curriculum would enable students either to proceed to more advanced studies or to be rapidly trained (either formally or on the job) in more specialized skills. In this way, the proposed comprehensive schools would provide a flexible basis for meeting the needs of those sectors of the economy, whose pattern of development and specific skill requirements cannot be forecast at the present time. 4.20 The project would provide for technical assistance in the form of an expert in comprehensive school curricula (1 man/year) 1/, fellowships of one year each for the heads of the departments of commerce and vocational education in each school (6 man/years), and travelling scholarships for the three headmasters (1.5 man/years) to familiarize them with modern methods of administration and time scheduling in double-shift schools. Workshops and Laboratories 4.21 Science laboratories and craft workshops would be provided in gov- ernment-owned preparatory and secondary schools distributed throughout the country. Five secondary schools would be provided with science blocks con- sisting of a general laboratory, a chemistry laboratory and a preparation/ store room. Craft centers for girls with work spaces for food and nutrition, textile and clothing, health and child care, home management and craft ac- tivities would be provided in four preparatory and secondary schools. Pre- vocational workshops to provide an introduction to woodwork, woodcarving, upholstery, drawing, electricity, metal work, plumbing, ceramics and machine maintenance would be built at seven existing boys' preparatory schools. All extensions would be available for use by adults in the evenings. 4.22 The proposed extensions would respond to the objective of increas- ing the practical content of preparatory education, in order to correct the academic bias of curricula and meet the training needs of the increasing num- ber of students who will join the labor force or enter vocational education at the end of the compulsory cycle (para. 3.11). Given the proposed reorien- tation of the compulsory cycle and the need to maintain adequate quality con- trols over the performance of the system, the government has provided an assurance that the Preparatory School Certificate Examination will be revised within three years of signing of the Credit Agreement to: (i) allow for 1/ The expert would assist in the overall design and development of compre- hensive school curricula, thus complementing the technical assistance (design of industrial arts curricula) financed under the first project.  - 18 - testing of practical skills as well as theoretical knowledge; (ii) provide for meaningful testing of educational achievement in the compulsory cycle, with criteria for satisfactorily completing the test to be established inde- pendently of the number of student places available in secondary education (criterion-referenced tests); (iii) introduce adequate norm-referenced criteria to select among the students awarded the Preparatory School Certifi- cate those entitled to continue to either general secondary or vocational education. Educational Buildings Survey 4.23 At present, no systematic information is available in Jordan on the conditions of physical facilities in either rented or owned schools. Given the importance of such information for both educational development planning and the identification of possible future Bank projects, an educational build- ings survey is proposed, which would be conducted by two teams, each consist- ing of an architect, a teacher from the Ministry of Education and the build- ing officer of the district involved. The services of a foreign expert -- included as part of the technical assistance program -- would be required for about 6 man/months to design the survey and assist in the analysis of the findings. Technical Assistance 4.24 The program of technical assistance, described above under each pro- posed project item, would total 20 man/years of experts' services and about 50 man/years of fellowships. The proposed phasing of the program is given in Annex 12. Project Administration 4.25 In view of the workload that the proposed project would impose on the existing Project Implementation Unit, additional staff would be required, including a deputy director, a civil engineer, a procurement officer and an accountant. The recruitment of the required additional personnel with the desired qualifications, as well as the retention of the present Project Unit staff, will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, unless sufficiently attractive salaries can be offered. As the existing civil service salary scales are low , the proposed Credit would provide a supplementary allowance for the personnel of the expanded Project Unit to make their salaries competi- tive with the private sector. The estimated total cost during the period 1975-1981 would be about US$150,000, or less than 1.0% of total project cost. Project Evaluation System 4.26 To enable the government and the Association to assess the success of the first education project in achieving its objectives, the government agreed to establish a "tracer" system for all project institutions (Section 4.03 of the Credit Agreement). The government has confirmed that such system would also be applied to the proposed second project.  - 19 - Cost Estimates 4.27 The estimated total cost of the project is JD 5.5 million or US$17.5 million equivalent. A breakdown by project items is given in the following table 1/: % of Base JD (millions) US$ (millions) Line Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Costs A. Physical Facilities 1. Irbid Polytechnic 0.13 0.22 0.35 0.40 0.71 1.11 10% 2. Aqaba Training Complex 0.17 0.29 0.46 0.54 0.93 1.45 12% 3. Hotel Training School 0.16 0.29 0.45 0.52 0.91 1.43 12% 4. -Rural Development Center 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.20 0.32 3% 5. Three Comprehensive Schools 0.46 0.82 1.28 1.47 2.59 4.06 35% 6. Five Science Laboratories 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.15 0.26 0.41 3% 7. Four Craft Centers for Girls 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.14 0.24 0.38 3% 8. Seven Pre-Vocational Workshops for Boys 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.29 0.50 0.79 7% Sub-Total (A) 1.14 2.00 3.14 3.61 6.34 9.95 85% B. Services 1. Professional Services 0.05 0.13 0.18 0.17 0.41 0.58 5% 2. Project Administration 0.04 - 0.04 0.12 - 0.12 1% 3. Technical Assistance 0.06 0.25 0.31 0.20 0.79 0.99 9% Sub-Total (B) 0.15 0.38 0.53 0.49 1.20 1.69 15% C. Base Line Costs (A+B) 1.29 2.38 3.67 4.10 7.54 11.64 100% D. Contingencies 1. Physical Increase 0.12 0.21 0.33 0.37 0.67 1.04 9% 2. Price Increase 0.57 0.93 1.50 1.80 2.97 4.77 41% Sub-Total (D) 0.69 1.14 1.83 2.17 3.64 5.81 50% TOTAL PROJECT COST 1.98 3.52 5.50 6.27 11.18 17.45 1/ Estimated costs by type of expenditure are presented in Annex 13.  - 20 - 4.28 Estimated civil works costs for the proposed project are based on contracts for the first IDA project and on information obtained from private and public enterprises. Equipment and furniture cost estimates are based on reasonable unit prices for each category of goods. Costs per stuclent place are satisfactory (Annex 14). Detailed lists with itemized costs will be com- piled during the design stage and presented for Association approval before procurement. Space standards for the project schools are based on detailed schedules of accommodations, consistent with curricula requirements, and the use factors of the facilities are economical. 4.29 The project cost includes a contingency allowance for unforeseen physical additions equal to 10% of the estimated cost for civil work, furni- ture, equipment and professional services. During the project implementation period, prices are expected to increase by about 42% for civil works, 37% for professional services, 31% for furniture and equipment and 28% for technical assistance. Accordingly, price contingencies are estimated at about 38% of base line costs plus physical contingencies (Annex 15). 4.30 The foreign exchange component is estimated at US$11.2 million, representing about 64% of total project cost. It was calculated as follows: (i) civil works 50%; (ii) professional services 70%; (iii) furniture and equipment 95%; and (iv) technical assistance 80%. 4.31 The proposed project would have only a small impact on future edu- cational expenditures. At full capacity the project institutions would re- quire about JD 350,000 per year in operating costs, corresponding to less than 2% of projected public recurrent expenditures on education by 1985. Financial Plan (Annex 16) 4.32 The proposed credit would finance about 54% of the total estimated foreign exchange component of physical facilities and services. Technical assistance is expected to be financed entirely by multilateral and bilateral sources. The government has indicated that, in view of the high priority of all items included in the project, they expect to find other sources of sup- plementary financing or, in the absence of these, would finance the entire balance out of the budget. The financial plan would be as follows:  - 21 - Multilateral and Bilateral Government IDA Sources Total --------------(US$ millions)--------------- 1. Civil Works 7.20 2.60 - 9.80 2. Furniture 0.48 0.48 - 0.96 3. Equipment 1.01 2.02 - 3.03 4. Professional Services 0.55 0.25 - 0.80 5. Project Administration - 0.15 - 0.15 6. Technical Assistance - - 1.27 1.27 Subtotal (including price increases) 9.24 5.50 1.27 16.01 7. Physical contingencies 0.94 0.50 1.44 Total 10.18 6.00 1.27 17.45 Implementation 4.33 The Project Implementation Unit, established under the first educa- tion project and further reinforced as indicated above (para. 4.25), would also be responsible for this project. 4.34 The Ministry of Public Works would prepare the designs and tender documents for the proposed extensions to the existing preparatory/secondary schools and would supervise construction. For the other project items, consultant architects/engineers acceptable to the Association would be appoint- ed under terms and conditions agreeable to the Association. 4.35 The existing preparatory/secondary schools sites are adequate to accommodate the proposed extensions and are owned by the Ministry of Educa- tion. For the new project institutions, adequate sites are available. Evid- ence of sites' acquisition would be submitted to the Association prior to the commencement of construction. 4.36 Civil works contracts would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding, in accordance with the Association's guidelines. It is expected that the contracts would be awarded to Jordanian firms, as the country has a competitive construction industry capable of implementing the proposed project. Construction contracts not exceeding US$100,000 would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally and in accord- ance with procedures satisfactory to the Association. This procedure would apply only to the extensions to preparatory and/or secondary schools; the average estimated civil works costs for science laboratories, women's crafts centers and prevocational workshops are US$60,000, 63,000 and 78,000, respect- ively. Apart from the small sums involved, the extensions are dispersed over the country, in some cases in remote areas, so that international competitive bidding would not be practical. Qualified Jordanian contractors are avail- able in all the localities concerned.  - 22 - 4.37 Detailed lists of furniture and equipment would be presented for the Association's review prior to procurement. These lists would identify all items or categories of items costing more than US$2,000, the residual items being included in one miscellaneous category not exceeding US$50,000 for each institution. Items would be grouped to the extent possible to form sizeable packages to permit bulk procurement. Furniture and equipment contracts, ex- cept for the items included in the miscellaneous categories and the furniture for the proposed extensions, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with the Association's guidelines. Nearly all equipment and about 80% of the furniture are expected to be obtained from foreign manufacturers. 4.38 Local manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a margin of preference equal to the existing rate of custom duty applicable to competing imports or 15% of the c.i.f. price, whichever is lower. Bid com- parison would be made in accordance with the Association's guidelines on the application of domestic preferences in bid evaluation. 4.39 Furniture for the preparatory/secondary schools extensions would be required approximately 15 months before the completion of the comprehen- sive schools and would cost only US$109,000. For this reason, corLtracts would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally and in accordance with procedures satisfactory to the Association. The same procedures would be followed for the procurement of the residual items includ- ed in the miscellaneous categories refered to above (para. 4.37). It is ex- pected that the total value of contracts awarded on the basis of local compe- titive bidding would not exceed 20% of the total cost of furniture and equip- ment. 4.40 The project would be implemented over a period of seven years after the signing of the Credit Agreement (Annex 17). Construction as well as pro- curement and installation of equipment and furniture are expected to be com- pleted about five years after Credit signing. An additional 1-1/2 years would be required to complete the technical assistance program; all accounts would be closed within the following six months. Disbursements 4.41 Disbursements (Annex 18) for items to be financed by the proposed Credit would be on the basis of: (i) 27% of total expenditure for civil works; (ii) 31% of total expendituze for professional services; (iii) 63% of the c.i.f. cost or ex-factory price for furniture and equipment: and (iv) 100% of total expenditure for project administration. The percentage for civil works would be adjusted as necessary to distribute disbursements over the implementation period. Undisbursed funds, if any, would be available for further development of the project in accordance with a program agreeable to the Association.  - 23 - V. BENEFITS 5.01 The proposed project would assist the government in implementing its plans for qualitative improvement and reorientation of the education and training system in accordance with the new development needs of the country. This would be accomplished: (i) in vocational and technical education, through the introduc- tion of new specializations required to sustain the expected process of industrial growth and industrial diversification (Irbid Polytechnic); through the provision of flexible train- ing arrangements which would make the manpower development system more responsive to changing technological requirements and increased manpower needs of the industrial and mining sectors (Aqaba Training Complex); and through the establishment of the first institution in the country catering for the grow- ing manpower needs of the hotel and tourism sector (Hotel Train- ing School); (ii ) in rural development training, through the provision of a pilot non-formal education institution, which could be in- strumental in enhancing the effectiveness of integrated rural development projects in the Jordan Valley, by provid- ing basic skills required to improve productivity and stand- ards of living; and (iii) in general education, through the reinforcement of pre-voca- tional activities for both boys and girls in preparatory schools, improvement of science teaching at the secondary level and diversification of secondary education (comprehen- sive schools). The proposed project would thus reinforce the pattern of educational reform promoted by the first project and assist in extending the reform to new edu- cational activities and new target groups. 5.02 An important benefit of the project would be to reduce the depend- ence on uneconomically small and educationally unsuitable rented facilities. In addition to the educational benefits stemming from the availability of appropriate facilities and a suitable learning environment, the project would result in considerable financial savings of rentals and teachers' salaries (estimated at about US$185,000 per year). 5.03 The proposed project would also contribute to institution building by providing better institutional links between the schools and the labor market, stimulating the reform of the system of examinations and trade test- ing, and establishing a systematic source of information on educational build- ings, as required for educational planning and programming.  - 24 - VI. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 6.01 During negotiations, agreement was reached on the followings princi- pal points: (i) detailed curricula and syllabi for the proposed Irbid Poly-- technic and the Aqaba Trade Training Complex, designed in terms of the functional content of jobs in the Jordanian industry, would be prepared and presented to the Association for comments (paras 4.03 and 4.08); (ii) an Advisory Council would be established for the proposed Polytechnic which would include representatives of public and private industry, of the National Vocational Council and of the concerned educational institutions, and would be respons- ible inter alia for providing guidelines on curriculum develop- ment, entrance criteria and evaluation systems (para. 4.03); (iii) a Liaison Committee would be established for the proposed Aqaba Trade Training Complex, chaired by the Director of Vocational Education in the Ministry of Education and compris- ing representatives of the National Vocational Council, the Director of the Complex and representatives of public and private industry (para. 4.07); (iv) within three years of signing of the Credit Agreement, the Preparatory School Certificate Examination would be revised to: (a) allow for testing of practical skills as well as theoretical knowledge; (b) provide for testing of educa- tional achievement in the compulsory cycle, with criteria for satisfactory completion to be established independently of the number of student places available in secondary education; and (c) introduce adequate criteria to select among the students awarded the Preparatory School Certifi- cate those entitled to continue to either general secondary or vocational education (para. 4.22). 6.02 The project is suitable as a basis for an IDA credit of US$6.0 mil- lion to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.  * --===-* ~~==-~,=.= = , - . - .- -- -- - .... .. .. .. . . .. . t . ,   ANNEX 2 Page 1 of 4 JORDAN THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM Administration and Structure 1. Fornmal education in Jordan is conducted by the Ministry of Educa- tion, other ministries, UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) and international and national private agencies (Chart 1). The Ministry of Edu- cation effectively controls curricula and instruction in all elementary and secondary schools. 2. The highly structured administration of the Ministry is assisted by regional directorates in each governorate or district (Chart 2). With few exceptions, administrators are former teachers holding at least a bache- lor's degree but lacking training in administration. 3. The education and training system (Chart 3) is based on a 6-3-3 structure although private kindergartens are available in major cities to children below six years of age. The government is moving towards nine years of compulsory education followed by a three-year secondary cycle with both academic and vocational programs, the former dividing into arts and science streams for the last two years and the latter currently having sep- arate vocational schools for agriculture, commerce, industrial arts, and nursing. Three specialized trade training centers were established in 1973 for two years post-preparatory skill training. At the post-secondary level, two-year institutes train elementary and preparatory school teachers and pro- vide technician level courses in engineering, commerce, Islamic law, social services, statistics and nursing. The University of Jordan currently offers courses to some 3,600 students in the Faculties of Arts, Science, Economics and Commerce, Islamic studies, Education, Agriculture, Nursing and Medicine; the last four faculties commenced in 1973. In addition, some 29,000 students are estimated to be studying in universities abroad. Non-formal education is increasing through agricultural extension and cooperative and adult liter- acy programs. Research activities are conducted under the auspices of the Royal Scientific Society. 4. Small, poorly ventilated, ill-lighted former dwellings having little playground space are rented by the Ministry of Education as schools. In urban areas 95% of elementary, 73% of preparatory and 89% of secondary schools operate in such premises often on a double shift basis. Equipment and furniture are inadequate. The few new buildings which have been con- structed in recent years are based on UNRWA models providing adequate light- ing and ventilation and being supplied with reasonable equipment and furniture. Compulsory Cycle Education 5. The average annual growth rate of elementary and preparatory enroll- ments since 1968 has been 7.2% and 7.9% respectively. Including overage enrollments, 104% and 63% of the age groups are enrolled at elementary and  ANNEX 2 Page 2 of 4 preparatory levels respectively. Female enrollment both as a percentage of the age group and as a percentage of total enrollment at each level is relatively high for a developing country (Chart 4). 6. In 1972, 52% of teachers in the compulsory cycle were considered unqualified. Of the 8,500 elementary teachers, only 3,400 had urLdertaken post-secondary teacher training or higher studies. Of the 3,630 preparatory teachers, 2,420 were similarly qualified. Staffing is establishe!d on the basis of 1.1:1 and 1.3:1 teachers per class in elementary and preparatory schools respectively to provide an adequate staff:class ratio. 7. The average student:teacher ratio of 38:1 in elementary, schools is satisfactory while the ratio of 21:1 in preparatory schools is uneconomic- ally low. However, these ratios do not reflect either the conditions in small, overcrowded urban schools or the premature establishment of classes in rural areas for 10 or more children. With an over supply of university graduates seeking teaching positions the average workload of a teacher in a 36-period week is low at 30 and 28 for elementary and preparatory teachers respectively. 8. Representative curriculum committees for each subject continuously review syllabi with major revisions occurring every six years. The curric- ulum department within the Ministry is adequately organized and competently staffed. Curricula revisions at all levels are seeking to incorporate more practical, work-oriented activities for students. 9. The preparatory certificate examination dominates the compulsory cycle and is the entrance requirement to secondary education. Curricula revisions are attempting to provide alternatives to memory learning on which this examination is based. Secondary General Education 10. In 1972, nearly 31,000 students were enrolled in general academic courses in private and government secondary schools. Of the students in grades 11 and 12, 43% were in the science streams. UNRWA does not provide secondary classes but pays a per capita allowance for every refugee enrolled in government secondary schools. 11. Of the 1,345 secondary teachers, 77% are university graduates only 2% of whom possess post-graduate diplomas in education and another 9% hold a two-year post-secondary teaclher's diploma. Government regulations require qualified secondary teachers to have undertaken at least one year of post graduate studies but this has only recently become available through the University of Jordan. Rapidly increasing numbers of teachers and admin- istrators are obtaining such qualifications. 12. The average student:teacher ratio is 23:1, reflecting the abundance of teachers and the small size of many classrooms. In a 36-period week the teaching load for a secondary teacher varies between 20 and 24 periods per week.  ANNEX 2 Page 3 of 4 13. The pass rate for the General Secondary Education Certificate is 72% but only the most highly qualified are admitted to higher education with- in Jordan. Hence, many candidates repeat the examination in successive years even after taking alternative employment. Vocational and Technical Education 14. Since 1967, vocational education enrollments have increased by 76% from 2,025 to 3,564; in 1972, this was 10% of the total secondary enrollment. The growth of enroLlments has been greatest in commercial and industrial schools. 15. Technical education at the post secondary level has been limited to two engineering centers for 213 technicians: one operated by UNRWA and the other by the Ministry of Education within the vocational industrial school in Amman. UNRWA also conducts an advanced commercial course for 160 refugee students. 16. Under UNDP/ILO assistance, a national vocational training scheme was inaugurated in 1973. The scheme encompasses a comprehensive review of vocational training, a study of industrial requirements, an advisory and supervisory system for in-plant and apprenticeship training and the estab- lishment of a permanent tracer system. A four-week course of in-service training for 42 existing industrial secondary and trade training center teachers was held during the summer of 1973. Agricultural Education 17. Agricultural education in preparatory schools is almost entirely theoretical in content and presentation. In contrast, the two agricultural secondary schools conducted by the Ministry of Education, with an enrollment of nearly 370 students, provide a practically-oriented syllabus. However, fewer than 10% of the graduates from these schools directly join the labor force as farmers; the remainder seek government employment or further educa- tion. The Ministry of Agriculture has little input into agricultural educa- tion and the committee established between the two ministries to coordinate agricultural education and review curricula has not been effective. At present, little training is provided for farmers. The Faculty of Agricul- ture at the Univerbity of Jordan was established in 1973 with an initial en- rollment of 50 students but the emphasis will be on post-graduate studies related to Jordanian conditions for students trained overseas. 18. Rural development training is spasmodic with the Ministry of Agri- culture producing about 30 extension agents annually. The Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor conducts a rural development center on a non-formal basis together with a child care and health clinic.  ANNEX 2 Page 4 of 4 Teacher Training 19. Five adequately equipped two-year post-secondary institutes enroll 2,240 trainees with an annual output of about 860. Staff are well educated, experienced teachers. 20. Secondary teachers are drawn from university graduates having at least minor studies in education. Although the Faculty of Science at the University of Jordan is well equipped, pedagogical training throughout the University has been very limited prior to 1973 and the establishment of the Faculty of Education. 21. In-service teacher preparation is provided annually for 600 un- qualified teachers in the compulsory cycle through courses lasting two years for one day per week and continuously over three summer vacations. Since its inauguration in 1970, the Teachers' Certification Institute has experienced only a 5% drop-out rate and maintained a 91% pass rate. Unqualifed teachers are selected on a quota basis from each district. Regional centers are being established to provide effective weekly seminars. A young, highly qualified and enthusiastic staff have developed courses of high quality. University Education 22. In 1972, nearly 3,600 students representing 5% of the 18 to 21 year age-group were enrolled at the well equipped, extensive campus of the Univer- sity of Jordan. A further 29,000 Jordanian students, of whom 66% are in the Social Sciences and Humanities, are enrolled in higher education in 25 coun- tries overseas. Other Education 23. Literacy classes for about 4,200 students in about 200 centers are held five days a week for 8 months in each of two years. Books and teaching materials are distributed free of charge. Trained teachers from the Ministry of Education are em.ployed outside their normal teaching duties. 24. Three or four week summer work camps permit secondary students to assist with community projects undertaken by various ministries. 25. Various institutes conduct one or two year post-secondary courses with relatively small enrollments (Chart 1 and Annex 5).  AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR EDUCATION (with percentages of total foil-tim e-nroll-t. 1972/73) Ministry of Ministry of Univeraity Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of Youth and Private Level and Type of Education Education Defense of Jordan UNRWA Agriculture Information Social Affair. Health WAQFS and National Welfare Sector (66.7%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (21.07.) and Labour Moslem Affaira Economy Organization (10.3o) COMPUSORY I I ElentaD H H Handicapped Preparatory [Ii El 1Cr SECONDARY General LI Vocational b Industrial E CoVanerci al ldti Agricultural Industrial .GR-U]nivaraity [L ] [I i][ Teacher College of Industrial Social College of College of Public ?t91ing Nursing Training Service Nursing Eharab Admsin stration Teacher University [II ADULT [l L] OTHER D L TV and Radio Physical, Handicapped twith Jordan TV Cultural and 9 Corporation) Social n I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Activlities  HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN ORGANIZATION CHART OF MINISTRY OF EDUCATION CENTRAL COMMITTEE | _ OFC EDUATION | PU.LIC RELATIONS 1151, S_1 . __T_ X3 { E ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l1 IN ESCO h ,)B C.LTUF AL I GUIDANCE | | A8~~~~~~~RGADNIZAIO W Cl SCOUTS S | Z ~~~~~~~~~~oE, G'VF0T | OIGIRLGUDE OF 15TUDENTS RE SIETRO IIIIEO TIDILE AD SMIAIOSOESIIE ISERVCELU IO REEAIC I I I lINC, R ,NIO CIOCL.. IIJ AOMINISRRU. TION OFNT ~ASSR DCTIONA L CINEROFLD CERIFPSTE |RET SCIOLRIIP EOLAD RI IRISTTLEl rm I I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~col S MUASLIOMUNI CATION FOOR~~~~~IIATI,0 SRANES SATSTC UFLE FSCNE REODER TINA DRECTORDS OFDSRCTAN OMMERRNORATEEAMER ASANK ONCROI A: S3 E3 X 3 [t S3 b LS31 -S3~~~~~~~~~~~~"'OL . YO.T. A~~~~~~~~~~~~EISTUDRANNGISTTUETAD GUIRDLCE TEABRROMINO EDTEIOADI TEARER CIRIN LIROUT &RASES RMUNPIVEI SCITY GCROL G-CROTOLS RELATIONS I'USLI EDCATION ALS ECO.S0 ITICTSAND GVENRTS ESTILIAKODIS sLOS TE SOUARCE: AlA TTROENTS .NAST 0ANEDUCAIONRCMMAR  HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN STRUCTURE OF THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM, 1973 5 4 3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 AGE I I l l HOTEL TRAINING SCHOOL INTAKE NOT_ BY SCHOOL RURAL DEVELT CENTER AGE 0 SEC COMMERCIAL CERTIFICATION AND INSERVICE TEACHER 10 1 21 TRAINING INSTITUTE SEC. INDUSTRIAL TEACHERS' TRAINING INSTITUTES HIGHER COMMERCIAL INSTITUTE VOCATIONAL AND 1 2E 10cArloNt ANO INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION RADE TRAINING 1 2 SEC. AGRICULTURAL POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTES COMPREHENSIVE SCHOOLS SOCIAL WORK INSTITUTE SEC. GENERAL CHILD CARE & MIDWIFERY INSTITUTE COMPULSORY CYCLE a LITERARY INSTITUTE (FACULTY) OF ENGINEERING KINDERGARTEN ELEMENTARY PREPARATORY r-1 r- ISHH~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2 3 -71 3_4_ 5u SCIENTIFIC FACULTY OF EDUCATION SEC. RELIGIOUS (SLAMC FACULTY OF NURSING }{+~~~~~ P- r3 r 45 + PREPARATORY EDUCATION CERTIFICATE m SECONDARY EDUCATION CERTIFICATE FACULTY OF SCIENCE * UNIVERSITY BACHELOR DEGREE ASSISTANT NURSE SCHOOL FACULTY OF COMMERCE & ECONOMIC r D EXISTING CLASSES > IN THE PROCESS OF CREATION SHRA (ISLAMIC LAS COLLEG ( IDA PROJECT INSTITUTIONS FACULTY OF MEDICINE 2C}r - l r3n r - 4 _r51_ rr-X World Ba,,k- 9049  HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN EDUCATION PYRAMID 1972-73 Q. a: w o o 0 -> 240 2 POPULATION IN AGE-GROUP 0 541 T T T T 17~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _ z w FEMALE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~MALE<Cce SECON~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ DARY C E 3 w670 i 70 OW (2 Z10W ENROLL- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ENROLL- em 0~ O >_ e C MENT E] STUDENT-ENROLLMEN IHR*NT T O w co0W~ 240 17400 IN - 541 TTTTT 27438 19600 ; r'I1i>>>-+>] 1539406 1500 175% 635% 6% 3% 31% 662 1307 917 2253 t t t* SECONOARY 3362 16700 I17647 189004 13422 217400 '>il :e:!i05il:kl.5j..i j:05.iE::t0:!5&:Sil 2620 261*l l 34256 14000 7452 19500 7.7% 31% 40% 21% 32% 4224 18000 8442 20200 3 40 PREPARATORY 7717 18900 W 12126 20800 133 19600 15394 21500 175% 63% 72% 52% 39% 10343~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3 12761 20600 19702 22400VRSASp ELEMENTARY 15359 21700 21680 237004 19949 22900 26200 2f t1 25678 24000270 31310% 1% 99 45 27019 25300 29125 26500..290 325 30286 27800 *. -... 32 24 1 6 8 0 8 1 6 24 3 2 4 0 THOUSANDS World Bank-9050 'ENROLLMENT EXCLUDING 29,000 STUDENTS OVERSEAS c  JORDAN PROJECTED MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS 1973-1985 Average Sector 1973 Manpower Stock 1973 Manpower Stock 1985 Required Net Demand Annual Demand Surviving to 1985 1' Manpower Stock 1973-1985 1973-1985 (rounded figures) 1. Agriculture 108,150 71,400 150,600 79,200 6,600 2. Mining 3,600 2,400 7,200 4,800 400 3. Manufacturing 23,370 15,400 43, o00 28,000 2,350 4. Electricity and Water Supply 1,350 coo 3,600 2,700 250 5. Wholesale and Retail Trade 27,830 18,400 48,800 30,400 2,550 6. Construction 30,790 20,300 51,000 30,700 2,550 7. Transport and Communications 18,550 12,200 16,100 3,900 300 8. Banking and Finance 2,650 1,800 4,300 2,500 200 9. Community, Social and Personal Services 42,500 28,000 79,000 51,000 4,250 ECONOMY 258,790 170,800 404,000 233,200 19,450 1/ Survival coefficients allowing for mortality, retirements, net emigration, etc. were applied to the Jordanian occupational structure in 1973. Because of lack of data the coefficients used are not occupationally specific. It was assumed that about one half of total net emigration (20,000 p.a.) would be from labor force already em- ployed and one half from new entrants into the labor market, which is consistent with the opinion, widely held in Jordan, that about one third of graduates either emigrate or do not return to the country. Source: Department of Statistics; National Planning Council; Staff Estimates  JORDAN PROJECTED MANPOWER REOUIREMENTS IN THE HOTEL INDUSTRY 1974-1985 Average Annual Training Needs 1974 1974 Manpower 1980 Net Demand 1980 Manpower 1985 Net Demand 1980-1985 Manpower Stock Surviving Manpower 1974-1980 Stock Surviving Manpower 1980-1985 (rouaded) Stock to 1980 I/ Stock Required 2. (rounded) to 1985 Il Stock Required t/ (rounded) Practice Classroom Training Only Training Total 1. Administration, Accounting and Control 188 118 430 310 292 549 260 10 70 80 2. Reception and Front Office 132 83 301 220 205 384 180 20 30 50 3. Restaurant and Bar 177 112 405 290 275 517 240 20 50 70 4. Kitchen 223 140 509 370 346 649 300 40 50 90 5, Housekeeping and Laundry 318 201 729 530 496 930 430 120 10 130 6, Stores 17 11 38 30 26 48 20 4 1 5 7. Utilities and Maintenance 142 89 326 230 222 420 200 10 50 60 TOTAL 1,197 754 2,735 Y 2,000 1,862 3,497 e 1,630 224 261 485 Source: Ministry of Tourism; Staff Estimates 1/ Estimated by assuming an attrition rate of 8 percent p.a., allowing for deaths, retirements, emigration, transfers to other sectors, etc. No allowance was made for internal transfers between "departments": 2/ Staff estimate based on Ministry of Tourism projections of number of hotel beds. 3/ It was assumed that employment growth after 1980 would level off at 5%p.a. 4/ Estimated by assuming that about 1/3 of new graduates will emigrate. Distribution between different types of training is based on detailed analysis of presumed educational requirements of staff presently employed at the Jordan Intercontinental Hotel.  JORDAN Enroll.ents. Graduates and Teachers B Level and Type of Eduction. 192;73 E N R O L L M E N T G R A D U A T E S E A CH E R S Other *h Other -. Other Stwid-t:Te-rher M.O.E. Ministries UNRWA Private Total Girls 8 0 M MO intr ies UNRWA Private Total Girll M.O.E, Mi v etri es UNRWA p-- r i e TrLal RItiE Kinder-arten - 134 . 13,755 13,889 42 _ _ _a, _ | 2 361 363 38.3 Conpul-ory Cycle Eleneutery 225 707 2,118 75 ,190 23 ,096 326 ,111 45 23 689 250 7,979 1,982 33 ,900 44 5 ,998 50 1,746 .(17 8 501 38.4 rrparatory 12,269 738 20,312 4,724 78,043 39 153577 188 4,911 422 23,098 37 2,635 29 698 264 3,626 21.5 Total 277,976 2,856 9 5.5_502 404,154- 44 | 438 12.890 4,404 56.998 40 8,5j33 79 _ _ 1.071 12,127 ietonder1 General 24, 974 648 5,363 30,985 32 9,987 145 _ 3,800 13,932 29 1,055 31 . 259 1,345 23.0 Gn,enerniol 1,621 , - 9 1,630 50 249 - _ 89 338 38 79 - 1 80 20.4 Industrial 895 _ 551 9 1,455 4 215 _ _ 45 260 0 65 _ 59 1 125 11.6 AgrIcutur-l 386 - - 366 0 82 - 12 94 0 27 - .27 13.6 Nur-ing - 113 - 113 84 - 17 1 17 100