Understanding violent conflict in Indonesia : a mixed methods approach

Patrick Barron Sana Jaffrey Blai r Palm er , 53358 Ash ut osh Va rshney -e I"'~KOUNI"' I TllEWO'ROIANK  IndonesianSocialDevelopmentPapers Since 1998, Indonesia has been undergoing a momentous political and economic transition. The fall of the New Order, the economic crisis, and radical decentralization havechangedthepolitical,economicandsocialcontext.Withinthisnewcontext,power relations are in flux, identities are being renegotiated, and institutions are changing. Changes in incentives, and in the role of formal and informal institutions at various levels,havealteredthewaysinwhichindividualsandgroupsrelatetoeachotherand the state. Understanding this new context, and the ways in which various actors (nationalandinternational)canpromoteprogressivesocialchangeisimportant. TheIndonesianSocialDevelopmentPapersseriesaimstofurtherdiscussiononarange ofissuesrelatingtothecurrentsocialandpoliticalcontextinIndonesia,andtohelpin the generation of ideas on how democratic and peaceful transition can be supported. The series will cover a range of issues including conflict, development, corruption, governance,theroleofthesecuritysector,andsoon.Eachpaperpresentsresearchon a particular dimension of social development and offers pragmatic policy suggestions. Papers also attempt to assess the impact of various interventions--from local and national actors, as well as international development institutions--on preexisting contextsandprocessesofchange. Thepapersintheseriesareworksinprogress.Theemphasisisongeneratingdiscussion amongst different stakeholders--including government, civil society, and international institutions--rather than offering absolute conclusions. It is hoped that they will stimulatefurtherdiscussionsofthequestionstheyseektoanswer,thehypothesesthey test,andtherecommendationstheyprescribe. PatrickBarron(serieseditor) pbarron@worldbank.org  UnderstandingViolentConflictin Indonesia AMixedMethodsApproach PatrickBarron SanaJaffrey BlairPalmer AshutoshVarshney December2009 IndonesianSocialDevelopmentPaperNo.15 Papers in the Indonesian Social Development series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are published informally and circulated to encourage discussion and comment between those interested in Indonesian development issues. The findings, interpretations, judgments,andconclusionsexpressedinthepaperarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbe attributedto:theWorldBankandaffiliatedorganizations;membersoftheWorldBank'sBoard ofExecutiveDirectorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent;oranyofthefundingagencies. ThefullrangeofpublicationsassociatedwiththebroaderstudyoflocalconflictinIndonesia(of whichthisreportisaproduct)isavailableonlineatwww.conflictanddevelopment.org. Emailaddressesforcorrespondence: pbarron@worldbank.org sjaffrey06@gmail.com palmerblair@gmail.com Ashutosh.Varshney@brown.edu Copiesofthispaperareavailablefrom: PNPMSupportFacility JalanDiponegoroNo.72 Jakarta10310Indonesia Tel:+62(0)213148175 Fax:+62(0)2131903090 Acknowledgements ThispaperprovidesanoutlineofthemethodologybeingusedfortheViolentConflictin Indonesia study. The research is funded through a grant from the World Bank's Post Conflict Fund. Additional funds have been provided by USAID, through the IRDSERASI program.ChrisWilsonandAdrianMorelprovidedsubstantiveinputsintotheresearch design.ThankstoBrunoBoccara,SamuelClark,PaulFrancis,MarkusKostner,Stephen Miller, Dave McRae, William Wallace, Alys Willman, Susan Wong and Matthew Zurstrassen(WorldBank),YuhkiTajima(UniversityofCalifornia,Riverside),SidneyJones (International Crisis Group), and Supryoga Hadi (Bappenas) for comments on earlier draftsofthispaper.Theviewsinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsaloneandnotof theinstitutionstowhichtheyareaffiliatedorofanyofthefundingbodies. ThepaperispublishedsimultaneouslyasSocialDevelopmentPaperNo.117. i  TABLEOFCONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................................ i TABLEOFCONTENTS .............................................................................................................................. ii 1.INTRODUCTIONANDBACKGROUND................................................................................................... 1 1.1THEVIOLENTCONFLICTININDONESIASTUDY ................................................................................................. 3 1.2RESEARCHTOPICS ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Patterns,incidentsandimpactsofviolentconflict................................................................................ 4 Routineviolence .................................................................................................................................... 4 Escalationofviolence ............................................................................................................................ 4 Deescalationofviolence ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.ANOVERVIEWOFTHEMETHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 6 2.1UNDERSTANDINGVARIATION ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2WHYAREWEUSINGMIXEDMETHODS? ...................................................................................................... 6 2.3HOWAREWEUSINGTHESEMETHODS?....................................................................................................... 7 Trackingtrends:establishingpatternsofvariance ............................................................................... 7 Nestedcasestudies:theorybuilding..................................................................................................... 8 Theorytesting ....................................................................................................................................... 9 2.4QUANTITATIVEDATA:THEVICISNEWSPAPERDATASET ................................................................................... 9 Phasesofthenewspaperstudy ........................................................................................................... 11 3.PATTERNS,FORMSANDIMPACTSOFVIOLENTCONFLICT ................................................................. 14 3.1AIMSANDRESEARCHQUESTIONS............................................................................................................... 14 4.ROUTINEVIOLENCE .......................................................................................................................... 16 4.1AIMSANDRESEARCHQUESTIONS............................................................................................................... 16 4.2RESEARCHMETHODS ............................................................................................................................... 17 4.3CASESELECTIONANDFIELDWORK .............................................................................................................. 18 Provinces ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Districtsorsubdistricts ....................................................................................................................... 19 Incidents .............................................................................................................................................. 20 4.4COMPARATIVEFRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................................... 20 5.ESCALATIONOFVIOLENCE ................................................................................................................ 22 5.1AIMSANDRESEARCHQUESTIONS............................................................................................................... 24 5.2RESEARCHMETHODS,CASESELECTIONANDFIELDWORK ................................................................................ 24 Hypothesisgeneration ........................................................................................................................ 24 Caseselectionandcomparativeframework ....................................................................................... 25 6.DEESCALATIONOFVIOLENCE........................................................................................................... 28 6.1AIMSANDQUESTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 30 6.2RESEARCHMETHODS ............................................................................................................................... 30 6.3CASESELECTION ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Comparingdifferentdeescalationpatterns ....................................................................................... 31 Comparinglevelsofroutineviolenceinpostconflictsettings.............................................................. 32 Comparingformsofroutineviolenceinpostconflictsettings ............................................................. 33 Withincasestudyanalysis .................................................................................................................. 34 6.4FIELDWORKANDANALYSIS........................................................................................................................ 35 6.5TESTINGTHETHEORYONDIFFERENTTYPESOFCASES .................................................................................... 36 ii 7.TESTINGOURHYPOTHESES:LINKSTOOTHERQUANTITATIVEDATA ................................................. 37 Social/demographicfactors ................................................................................................................ 37 Economicfactors ................................................................................................................................. 37 Institutionalfactors ............................................................................................................................. 38 8.AUDIENCEANDOUTPUTS ................................................................................................................. 39 8.1AUDIENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 39 8.2OUTPUTS .............................................................................................................................................. 40 Policybriefingnotes ............................................................................................................................ 40 Workingpapers,journalarticlesandbook ......................................................................................... 40 Conflictdataset ................................................................................................................................... 40 Workshopsandcapacitybuilding ....................................................................................................... 41 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 42 ANNEXA:CONCEPTSANDDEFINITIONS ............................................................................................... 46 ANNEXB:PROVINCESANDESTIMATEDDISTRIBUTIONOFMEDIASOURCES......................................... 47 ANNEXC:CODINGTEMPLATE............................................................................................................... 48 ANNEXD:EXPLANATIONOFCODES...................................................................................................... 49 iii  1.IntroductionandBackground ViolentconflictinIndonesiaisinneedofserioustheoreticalandpolicyattention.Anew belief that conflict has deescalated in Indonesia has crept into popular and policy circles.However,itisnotclearwhetherthemovementtowardsdeescalationiscyclical or permanent. Nor is it clear that newer forms of conflict will not erupt in Indonesia. Comparative theory and evidence indicate that violence often reappears in areas that previously had acute conflict. Theory also suggests that unless suitable institutions or policies are imaginatively devised and put in place, a multiethnic or multireligious societyisvulnerabletothepossibilityoflongrunviolentconflict.Acarefulexamination ofIndonesia'srecenthistoryofconflict,andformsandpatternspresenttoday,isvital for ascertaining current risks. As the Indonesian government and society seek to consolidatethedemocraticgainsofthepastdecade,understandingviolentconflictisof upmostimportance. Bynow,theliteratureonconflictinIndonesiaisquitesubstantialandmanyelementsof thestoryarereasonablyclear.1ThefallofSuhartowasaccompaniedbytheoutbreakof intense group violence in several parts of the country. As a result, and in dramatic contrast to studies of Indonesia during the late New Order when the literature emphasized order, stability and economic dynamism, conflict became an important concern in scholarly and policy circles. The literature that emerged has especially advanced our understanding of some largescale conflicts