Chad - Development potential and constraints

75992  Chad: Development Potential and Constraints This report was prepared by the economic mission which visited Chad in April and May 1972, consisting of Richard Westebbe, chief and coordinating author, and Theodore Nkodo, Hellmut Dostal, and Florent Aguch, economists. The report includes comments made by the Government of Chad during discussions in April 1973; the text was reviewed by the government in March 197 4. The mission chief and coordinating author is responsible for the scope and overall conclusions of the report. WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. 136918  The World Bank issues country economic reports in two series. This report is part of an infor- mal series and is wholly based on a document prepared for use within the Bank. The text is not meant to be definitive, but is offered so as to make some results of internal research widely avail- able to scholars and practitioners throughout the world. Other titles in this series may be obtained from the Publications Unit, World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A., or from the World Bank, 66, avenue d'lena, 75116 Paris, France. Also in this series are: Employment in Trinidad and Tobago (March 1973) Current Economic Position and Prospects of Ecuador (October 1973) Current Economic Position and Prospects of Peru (December 1973) Another series of country reports is published for the World Bank by The johns Hopkins Uni- versity Press. Individual studies in this series may be obtained in clothbound and paperback edi- tions from bookstores, The johns Hopkins University Press, or its agents. Titles currently available are: Economic Growth of Colombia (1972-ISBN 0-8018-1389-1 /0-8018-1397-2) Nigeria: Options for long-Term Development (1974-ISBN 0-8018-1602-5 I 0-8018-1603-3) Copyright © 197 4 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. All rights are reserved.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = CFA franc (CFAF) Rate of Exchange Through August 11, 1969 US$1 = CFAF246.85 CFAFl,OOO = US$4.05 August 11, 1969 to December 20, 1971 US$1 = CFAF277.71 CFAFl,OOO = US$3.60 December 20, 1971 to February 12, 1973 US$1 = CFAF255.79 CFAFl,OOO = US$3.91 Since February 12, 1973 US$1 = CFAF230.207 CFAFl,OOO = US$4.34 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS ASECNA -Agence pour la sGcurit~ de la Navigation A~rienne en Afrique et en Madagascar BCEAC -Banque Centrale des Etats de !'Afrique Centrale BCEOM -Bureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipements d'Outre-Mer p BDT -Banque de Developpement du Tchad BEAC -Banque des Etats de !'Afrique Centrale CCCE -Caisse Centrale de Coop,ration Economique COTONFRAN ·' Franco- Thdi ·'-'cotonn1ere - Soc1ete c a enne COTONTCHAD -Soci~ti Cotonni~re Tchadienne CSPC -Caisse de Stablisation des Prix du Coton CTT -Cooperative des Transporteurs Tchadiens EIB -European Investment Bank FAC -Fonds d'Aide et de Coop~ration FDAR -Fonds de D~veloppement de d'Action Rurale FED -Fonds Europ~en de D~veloppement # ONDR -Office Nationale de Developpement Rural SEDES -Soci~t~ d 1 Etudes pour le D~veloppement Economique et Social UDEAC -Union Douani~re et Economique de !'Afrique Centrale - iii-  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS AND GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS... iii COUNTRY DATA •••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••• • • • • · vii - viii MAP IBRD 3168R3 ..•.••••••••••••.••••••••.••• follows viii SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS •.•••••••••••••••••.•••••••••• ix- xv GENERAL • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • xvii I. THE ISSUES "' ~ o • ., • • • • • • e . . . . . II') •••••• o o ll!o ••••••• ., •••••••••• 1 II. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND RECENT DE\~LOPMENT •••••••••••• 2 A. GDP and Production ·~•e••••••••••••·••••••••••••• 2 B. Foreign Trade • o • " e ., !!I • ll! ..... e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . " •••• 5 c. Balance of Payments • !II ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 7 D. The Credit System • s • o ........... .:t •••••••••••••••• 8 E. Employment, Income Distribution~ Prices and Wages 10 III. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND PROBLEMS ••••••••••••••••••• 15 A. Livestock ••••a••••e•••••••••••••••e••••••••••••• 15 B. Cotton and the Agricultural Sector •••••••••••••• 19 c. Traditional Agriculture ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 27 IV. DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINTS •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 30 A. H\11Ilan Resources !ol Q • $ ., 0 ••••••••• 'li ••••••••••••••••• 31 B. Public Finances "'.til G ;l! •••••••••• II •••••••••• e ••••• 35 c. The Critical Role of Transport •••••••••••••••••• 42 v. PLANNING AND GROWTH PROSPECTS •······················· 49 A. The First Development Plan, 1966-70 ••••••••••••• 49 B. The Ten-Year Development Plan; 1971-80 ••••••• 51 c. The Process of Planning and Plan Implementation • 57 D. Growth Pros pee ts _. ••• o o • • .w • • • • • • • • • • • Ill ••••••••••• 59 VI. FINANCING PROSPECTS AND AID OUTLOOK •••••••••••••••••• 63 A. Domestic Contribution •••••••••••w•~·•••••e•••••• 63 B. Projected Public Savings •••••••••••••••••••••••• 65 c. External Finance •• o e •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 66 D. Problems of Development Financing ••••••••••••••• 67 STATISTICAL APPENDIX •••••••.•••.••••••••••••••• , • • • • • • • • • • • 69 - v - TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) 1. GDP Estimates by Major Sectors 3 2. Foreign Trade 6 3. Balance of Payments 7 4. Banking System Claims on the Treasury as of December 31 9 5. I,abor Force, 19 64 11 6. Modern Sector Employment and Wages 13 7. Returns on Cotton 22 8. Costs and Revenues of the Cotton Program 24 9. Chad Budget 36 Financing the Budgetary Deficit 40 11. Transport Costs for Cotton Lint Exports in 1971, by Main International Routes 44 12. Public Investments in Transport Infrastructure, 1966-70 46 13. Public Investment Targets of Second Plan 1971-80, by Program and Sectors 53 14. Plan: Value Added Projections 54 15. GDP Forecast and Growth Rates 59 16. Macroeconomic Objectives 62 17. Budgetary Savings 66 18. External Public Financing, 1966-70 67 - vi -  Page 1 of 2 pages COUNTRY DATA • CHAD POPULATION DENSITY 3.7 million (mid&l971) 2.. 9 per km2 Rate of Growth: 1. 7 f:ro:m 1963 to 1968 per km 2 of arable land 2.1 from 1968 to 1980 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS 0) HEALTH (1979 ~crudeBirth Rate (per 1, 000) 2.76 Population per physician 62,000 Crude Death Rate (per 1.000) 22.72 Population per hospital bed •• Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 160 INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF OWNERSHIP % of national income, lowest quintile % owned by top 1 of owners highest quintile %owned by smallest 10% of.owners ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY % of population - urban % of population - urban rural d - rural NUTRITION EDUCATION (l9U) Calorie intake as % of requirements Adult literacy rate % 1.0 Per protein intake Primary school enrollment % 32.6 GNP PER CAPITA in 1971 us$ 80 ~ RArE OF GROWTH (%. constant prices) US f Mln. 1968-1911 GNP at Market Prices 29S .. 7 100.0 10u5 Gress Domestic Investment 21.6 7.3 14.5 Gress Saving 4.7 1.6 1;3.0 Curre~t Account Balance 16.9 5.7 Export@ of Goods. NFS 79.1 26.8 Imports of Goods. NFS 104.7 35 .. 4 Value Added a Labor Force!!/ V. A. Per Worker us Mln. _%_ (1,600} _L ~ _%_ Agriculture 135.6 47.2 733 .. 2 94 .. 2 185 35 .. 6 12.4 $.,8 115.8 40.4 44.9 3,372 Tot:ai/Average 2B1.o "fOo"':O 778 ..1 'i'OO':O -- 369 100;0 General Government Central Government ( Mln.) %of GDP CFAF btl~) % of GDP !2.L lll... 196 -7 121..! 1971 1968-7Q Current Receipts Current •• -!.!...... •• .. ....!.!........ 1.3@4 llli._6 16.0 ~ Current Surplus Expenditures External Assistance (net)~ .. •• ... •• •• •• •• .. 00 -1.2 2 .. 1 2ol -2.2 3·4 1 .. 2 mncb budget subsidy (cash basis). -vii-  Page 2 of 2 pages C;)UNTRY DATA ~ CHAD June MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES!/ ~ 1969 1970 1971 1971 "('Million --outstandiil$l end perio~ Money and Quasi Money 6.81 7e95 9.0) Bank Credit to ~blic Sector -1.54 0.01 1.23 Bank Credit to Private Sector 6.50 l2.49 11.37 (Percentages or Index Numbers) u.s Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP General Price Index (1965 = 100) !/ Annual percentage changes in: 100.0 124.4 8.5 l2.0 1)2.1 6.2 .. General Price Index Bank credit to Public Sector (1965 =100) 100.0 Bank credit to Private Sector(1965 100) 100.0 = 204.5 192.2 279.9 174.9 280.0 148.9 .. BALA.NCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1969-71) fY 1969 1970 1971 US $ Mln % --(Millioo;-us $) Exports of Goods. NFS ~ 62.6 75.9 79.1 Cotton 21.9 74.0 Imports of Goods, NFS !/ 84.9 98.6 104.7 Beef 4.4 14QS Resource Gap (deficit • •) -22"':3 -22.7 ::?5:0 Cattle 1.0 3·4 Interest Payments (net) -2.3 -1.8 -2.1 All other commodities 2.3 7.8 Workers' Remittances -5oO -3.6 -5.7 Total §;7;" 100:0 Net Transfers 10.8 14.4 16.5 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1971 Balance on Current Account ..JDl ..:rr.-7 .:ui:9 Direct Foreign In.vestment 2.7 1.1 o.4 Net MLT Borrowing 2.5 0.4 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Total outstanding & Disbursed Capital Grants 10.8 15.8 20.1 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1971 yj Other Capital (net) 2e7 Other items n.e.i _!W. ..k.2 ..JuJ Increase in Reserves (+) !?/ 1.5 8.6 8.) Public Debt. incl. guaranteed e.o FOREIGN ASSETS V Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Gross Reserves (end year) 1.5 2.5 10.8 Total outstanding & Disbursed Net Reserves (end year) -ll.2 -5.4 4.3 RATE OF EXCHANGE IDA LENDING, April 30, 1973 (Million US$): Throu~ Au~uat ll~l969 IBRD us$ .oo : D 246.85 CFAF 1,000 : US$ 4.05 Outstanding & Disbursed Au~st ~ 1969 - December 20, 1971 Undisbursed U$ 1. : CFAF 277.11 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed CFAF 1 1 000 : U3$ ).6o December 20, 1971 - Februa~ 12 1 1973 FUND Position, February 28, 197,3 (Million US $) tlS$ 1.60 z CFAF 25$:9 CFAF 1,000 I t5$ 3.91 Quota: 15.18 Since Februarz 12~1973 Drawing Outstanding 4.56 us$ 1.06 CFAF 1,000 : , -a US$ 230.207 . 4.)4 Use of Fund Credit 2.63 £! §I~ IFS, September, 1972. Including postal Bervice. Central Collllll!lrcial and Dewlop!!l!lnt banks only. "I Recorded exports only. ~. Consumer prices. !J Sea Part II C cftl'e liiBin text for qua1ii'ication regarding trade and non·factor service psynant figures far 1970 and 1971. HI Ratio of Debt Service to Exports • • not a'WI ilable Western A!rica Region • not applicable May 16, 1973 - viii -  . I I y A I A.R.E. I CHAD BORKOU- EN NEDI-TI BESTI AFRICA MELS c 0 KANEM > z + AIRPIEU>S - · - · - INTEJl!CATI.ONAL 1t'RIE I / I ) ! l ·- ' .,.1 { / t 'IU ~ I II !r I KII.OMf:TUI AFR ICAN REPUBLIC /  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Chad occupies 1.3 million square kilometers in Central Africa and has a population of 3.6 million. The northern nine-tenths of the country consists of Sahelian grassland and desert which supports some 1.9 million Arabic-speaking seminomadic livestock herders. The remainder of the country, in the Logone and Chari River basins, contains some 1.7 million Sara, largely subsistence sedentary farmers and who grow cotton as a cash crop and millet and groundnuts for food. The population growth rate is about 2.1 percent annually and per capita GNP was an estimated US$80 in 1971. 1/ Chad is one of the poorest countries in Africa. It lacks natural resources, social and economic infrastructure, and is burdened by high trans- port costs to the outside world. Its population is largely unschooled and untrained. Recent growth has been accompanied by widening income dispari- ties between the small modern sector, containing the new urban elite and the rural masses, and between the north and the south. Indeed, migration to the towns is depriving the rural sector of some of its most dynamic elements and increases the difficulty in carrying out rural development programs. From its inception, Chad has faced the problem of unifying its cul- turally and economically divided north and south. The problem was accentuat- ed in 1968, when discontent among the nomads in the north and the east became sufficiently acute for the government to request external military assistance. The consequent rise in military expenditures absorbed a good part of the re- sources which could otherwise have been used for development, and led to set- backs in animal vaccination and well-maintenance programs. Since then the security situation has improved, although full pacification may take a long time. Chad's relations with Libya, who supported the rebellion, have been normalized. Development Potential Chad's poverty is rooted in the low productivity of the agricul- tural and livestock sectors, partly caused by poor soil and the climate. These sectors contain the bulk of the population and produce respectively 32 percent and 14 percent of GDP. Accordingly, Chad's development efforts should be concentrated on raising rural productivity to alleviate poverty, and more particularly on making full use of the underemployed labor force. Opportunities for productive employment in the small towns will remain modest at best. The most promising import substitution industries such as textiles and beverages have already been established, and Chad's incomes and markets are too limited to offer economic opportunities for the produc- tion of most commonly imported products. ll Exchange rate US$1o00 = CFAF277.71.  Livestock production represents one of the main development poten- tials of the country. It currently provides subsistence and cash :lncome to nomadic and seminomadic livestock herders in the north and east. The export of chilled meat from N'Djamena (formerly Fort-Lamy) to Zaire and Congo has expanded during recent years, and increased Nigerian demand for Chadian cattle on the hoof has considerably improved the outlook for livestock" Chad will, however, have difficulty in responding to the opportuni- ties opened by a projected long-run structural rise in demand for meat by her urbanizing neighbors, particularly Nigeria. The drought in 968/69 d:estroyed about 7 percent of the national cattle herd. After this~ value added of live- stock increased only moderately, and since 1970 ~ Chadian herders ha,;e report- edly been selling underage and pregnant cattle to Nigeria~ thus depleting the capital stock in cattle. Available pasture would support a larger herd but growth is inhibited by lack of water and poor animal health conditions. The 1971/72 and 1972/73 droughts reportedly caused severe losses of lJ.vestock, and crops. In order to raise the quality and quantity of livestock production over the next decade, ongoing and new well-digging prognuns have to be com- plemented by stock roads, sanitation stations, and better organized markets to provide increased and lasting benefits to the cattle herder. The benefits of these programs should eventually form the basis for taxes on water and health services as well as on the value of animals sold. In the meantime, Chad will have difficulty in paying its full share of the cost of well-mainten- ance and the effective management of livestock services~ let alone expanding public services to producers or bringing health and education programs to the north. Howeverj provided neighboring coastal countries reduce their re- strictions on meat imports (as oppose.d to live animal imports which !mcounter no restrictions), a larger proportion of output can be processed in abattoirs in Chad, and this will lead to the growth of industries ba.sed on animal by- products. Cottox1 is Chad's most important export crop" The country produces medium and medium long fiber cotton 9 ~eih.ich currently brings a high price on world markets, although the level of prices in the future will be sensitive to the volume marketed by the principal producers" In 1965~ in order to ex- pand production, the Fonds Europeen de Developpement (FED) began to subsidize half the cost of inputs (fertilizers and insecticides)e 'TI1e balance is paid by the government and the producers. After large output increases in 1968-69~ both area and output under this productivity program have declined; in 1972 the program covered only 13 percent of the land producing cotton (primarily in the Mayo-Kebbi district). Despite these public efforts, the productivity program was not an unqualified success. This is mainly attributed to the droughts in 1969/70 and 1970/71, and the gradual dissipation of economic incentives; input costs in particular have been increasing due to rising transport costs. For four- teen years the producer price remained f:Lxed at CFAF26 per kilogram.o In 1972  - xi - it was raised to CFAF28 per kilogram, but this may still be insufficient to induce a substantial response from the farmers. Furthermore the quantity and quality of expatriate extension services have been inadequate to bring about improved cultivation. Because of staff shortages, technical assistants have been mainly occupied with distributing fertilizer and insecticides. Further, the productivity program has been successful in only a few areas favored with good soil and water. In concentrating on a sophisticated productivity program in these areas, as well as on less well-suited soils, the authorities have neglected the majority of the farmers who produce most of the cotton as a supplement to millet, the main source of food. A new five-year productivity program is scheduled to start in 1972/ 73 with participation by the FED, the Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC}, the Chadian Government and producers. The World Bank has been asked to fi- nance feeder and secondary roads for this project. The new program would have an integrated approach to cotton-growing, including food crops, live- stock, the processing of cotton and production of cotton seed oil. The gov- ernment intends to make a thorough evaluation of the last program before starting a new one, with the aim of creating a nonsubsidized cotton sector by the end of the decade. Millet and sorghum are grown mainly for subsistence and are produced throughout the Sahelian zone as well as the south. The market for these crops is fragmented and disorganized and prices vary widely throughout the year, with the farmer receiving low prices at harvest and merchants benefitting from the scarcity of supplies during the dry season. The problem lies partly in the fact that producing zones are isolated by lack of transportation. There would be substantial benefits to producers and consumers from a government-sponsored effort to increase local storage capacity, raise average producer prices and thereby reduce exorbitant trade margins and market prices. Improvement of food crop output should make farmers more willing to grow cotton as a cash crop. There are good prospects for introducing irrigation in selected areas. Chad already some 2,500 hectares of irrigated rice in the south and some 20,000 hectares of rainfed rice. The World Bank has been asked to finance a 7,000 hectare labor intensive rice project at Lai, which shows signs of producing good economic returns. Studies are now underway on the feasibility of expanding irrigable acreage by some 60,000 hectares in the polders of Lake Chad, starting with a 3,000 hectare area, a scheme which could ultimately have an important impact on the entire agricultural sector. Pilot programs not using fertilizer show extraordinarily high yields of long staple cotton and wheat. However, the cost of supplying the necessary hydraulic equipment and transport for the polders will also be high. Development Constraints Three areas of constraint in Chad's development are: deficiencies in human resources 1 £Ublic finances and transportation. It may be assumed that the main objective of development is to improve the well-being of the  - xii - bulk of people. There is also a clear connection between efforts to nutrition and education, and the potential for raising health~ productivity. Indeed, without the former, the potential in agriculture and Uvestock productivity cannot be fully realized. Both the and level of health care available require Health standards are generally inadequate, even taking into account the country's limited means. Education is not only of low quality but has over- emphasized costly specialized training for the few at the expense of prepar- the rural masses for a more productive life on the land. In a World Bank- financed teacher training project, the government has already taken steps to introduce a primary education system more suitable to Chad's needs. Basical- ly rural poverty can only be overcome by actions which raise incomes as well as provide adequate health and education standards. In effect, the peasant must be persuaded that from his own standpoint the rural way of yields as high a level welfare as available alternatives. A related problem is the wide disparity in income distribution be- tween the higher income area south of the Chari River~ where cotton and food crops are grotm, and the lower income area north and west of the Chari, where livestock and some groundnut production are the mainstays. This disparity is reflected in the more restricted public services in the north. Indeed, it is understood that the inadequate government producer services such as wells, roads, and animal health programs, coupled with deficient schools and medical services, contributed to the cattle herders' widespread resistance before the rebellion to government attempts to collect cattle and head taxes. In the growing towns there is a widening gap between the relatively few wage earners and the many migrants engaged in petty service occupations. The precarious f~nancial Eosition of the government is a major obstacle to expansion development activities; Chad cannot finance either the required domestic capital or the current contribution for new projects. The continuation of essential economic and administrative services is threa- by lack of funds, and growing unpaid bills are a serious problem. The government is currently not financing any capital expenditure from its own resources. Until 19 bilateral external budgetary subsidies covered all investment expenditures and part of current and debt service expenditures. After 1968, expenditures grew far more rapidly than revenues, partly because of the rebellion. Budgetary expenditures for military and security purposes rose from 18 percent of total budget expenditure in 1968, to 31 per- cent in 1970-72. Although other expenditures also rose rapidly, Chad's budget problems would have been much less serious if military expenditures had remained at more normal levels. In view of Chad's poverty and lack of alternative employment opportunities, a rapid reduction in the number of is difficult. The government should, however, be able to stabilize the number of military personnel, while allowing modest increases in military outlays in real terms to improve quality. Rigorous expenditure control, as well as tax reforms, will be necessary if Chad is to make any public contribution to its development in  - xiii this decade. A characteristic of the country's fiscal problems is that the two main productive sectors, cotton and livestock, yield inadequate tax re- venues to finance necessary producer and consumer public services. The gov- ernment's Fiscal Commission has recommended studies on revenue increases. There is some margin for collecting new taxes, even though tax receipts are relatively high and amount to about 16 percent of GDP. For example, many merchants pay no taxes and considerable evasion of customs duties takes place, in part because the small customs service is underfinanced and understaffed. Assuming fiscal reforms and reductions in the relative size of military out- lays, and the rural sector's recovery from the effects of the droughts, Chad should be able to achieve budget savings 1976. However, the govern- ment will have to repay substantial arrears, and it will be several years before any public savings can be made availab for investment outlays. The high cost of ~ransportati~ both to the outside world and within the vast stretches of Chad itself, is a critical obstacle to development, which in turn is dependent on expanding foreign trade. In this respect, Chad was much less well-endowed at independence than some other countries which in- herited a better-established transport and communications network. Absence of roads often makes otherwise good projects unfeasible. Yet, given scarce re- sources and the necessity to choose, it is imperative that each transport project be carefully assessed to ensure that it makes a satisfactory contri- bution to economic growth. Most of the major in routes to the outside world are being planned and financed foreign aid agencies. Chad's own allocation of resources to transport in- vestments could be reassessed in important respects to ensure that priorities are respected. More fundamentally, consideration be given to establish- ing competetive conditions in transport, which would to lower rates, and a more efficient use of capacity. E~onomic management requires urgent Ministries are unable to plan or carry out development programs effectively, and decision making is poorly coordinated. There is a serious deficiency in the critical area public policy concerning transport. Lack coordination in the government makes it particularly difficult to plan, execute. and control development projects. The Second Ten-Year Plan (1971-80)t prepared with the assistance of a UN- and FAC-sponsored team, was published in 1972. It calls for total public investment outlays of about CFAF109 divided in two programs of first and second priority (CFAF50 and 59 billion respectively). The sectoral distribution of the proposed first-priority program has recently been revised to increase emphasis on livestock projects which appear to offer greater economic returns than in the past. Nevertheless, the major focus remains on transportj cotton, and sugar plantation. Allocations for livestock, rural education and health are The plan's strategy places a good deal of stress, although no resources as , on a national program to develop building materials and s popular savings for housing, to create a new sector economic activity. Since imported materials account for 80 percent of the cost of and percent of the  - xiv - cost of constructing buildings, domestic production of these materials would be an important economic benefit. For the bulk of the people, even in towns~ housing probably has a low priority, given their income levels and other needs. For the high income groups, existing private and public financial institutions are providing adequately for demand. On the other hand Chad could well ex- amine the merits of self-built, planned squatter areas in the growing towns before the problem becomes acute. If properly executed, such schemes would make a minor claim on public funds. With its mostly unevaluated projects, the plan lacks financial details and still has to be translated into a practical development program. It does not specify how institutional changes--which are preconditions for the structural economic changes it proposes--are to be made. Nevertheless, the program contains a good number of projects which are likely to result in social and economic progress. Others could be added in the next few years. Accordingly~ the mission considers Chad capable of absorbing public invest- ments rising from CFAF5 billion in 1971 to some CFAF8 billion by 1978. These amounts are consistent with the likely availability of foreign concessional aid. Assuming improvement in fiscal performance, as outlined earlier, and no increase in budgetary military outlays, the Chadian Government should be able to reduce its current deficit gradually. However, until after 1976, positive budgetary savings will not be possible. Accordingly until then, foreign aid will continue to be required to finance both capital and part of current public expenditures. On this basis, the mission estimates that gross external public capital inflows required to finance investments and amortiza- tion would remain roughly constant at CFAF6 billion in constant prices from 1971 to 1978, and would rise to CFAF8 billion in current prices in 1978. Common market countries are expected to remain the main sources of foreign public capital during this period. In addition, direct budgetary assistance will be needed through 1975, but on a declining scale. Problems of Development Financing In the immediate future, Chad can improve its ability to attract and manage external assistance by making progress on the following issues: (a) settling over CFAF5 billion in mainly short-term arrears owed to foreign and domestic creditors; (b) in this connection, undertaking a credible fiscal reform program which will essentially enable the current budget to be balanced, make a reasonable contribution to capital spending and permit current debt service obligations to be met; (c) after bringing its fiscal house in order by such self-help measures, arranging a satisfactory multiannual development program which is in line with development priorities, and which specifies the requirements for capital and recurrent financing from foreign and domestic sources; and  -xv- (d) improving Chad's management of its own current development program and laying the groundwork for expanding the scope of future development opportunities, in line with the coun- try's economic and social objectives. Debt service on outstanding loans and suppliers' credits is estimated at 8 percent of 1971 exports of goods and nonfactor services. The debt service ratio is estimated to decline to 7 percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services, and 8.4 percent of estimated government expenditures by 1978. It has been assumed that financing by external aid agencies will be mainly on concessional terms with only a modest further rise in new interest- bearing debt from some bilateral aid agencies and in suppliers' credits. There are reports that Chad may acquire aid from Libya and other Middle Eastern countries. However, no information is available on the possible amounts or terms of such aid. In the light of Chad's poverty and low per capita income, its modest prospects for growth of GDP and exports, external borrowing should be predominantly on concessionary terms. Furthermore, even with good fiscal performance, Ghad will have neither the free budgetary resources through the mid-seventies to enable it to pay its share of capital outlays, nor will it be able to afford substantial new outlays for recurrent costs associated with new projects. Thus, foreign aid agencies will have to consider financing a high proportion of project costs as well as a portion of current operating costs wherever possible. The government agrees that fiscal performance should be improved as recommended. Assuming this is done, it would be possible to reduce progressively external financing of current operating costs.  GENERAL The area occupied by Chad in Central Africa is characterized by periodic and unpredictable severe droughts. The northern nine-tenths of the country has only a short rainy season, while the southern one-tenth of the below the Logone and Chari Rivers has a semihumid climate. The Sara who inhabit this area are largely animists or Christians while the livestock herders of are ma:i.nly Muslim. Per capita GDP in 1971 was estimated at As a landlocked country 9 1,500 kilometers from the coast, Chad pursues a policy of maintaining access to the outside world through four routes to the sea: one through Cameroon, the trans- Cameroon route; one through the C.A.R. and Congo, the trans-Equatorial route; and two through Nigeria. The country, particularly the north, was never fully during the colonial period~ In 1968, the simmering discontent in the and east among traditionally independent nomads, who were also dissatisfied with in- public services and refused to pay taxes, became serious for to request foreign military assistance. The si.tua- tion is now reportedly improved and the military units are be:i.ng withdrawn~ although are still some dissident elements. It will probably take years to this area which has a history of brigandage and resistance to In recognition of the political and economic causes of at least some of the support for rebels, efforts are being made through a financed local pacification program to reintroduce the ,s presence in the main centers. Within the government there have recently been a number of changes and senior staff which will affect in policy mak:i.ng. The important Planning Ministry has been the Presidency, and recently strengthened., Chad's relations with most of its neighbors are good. The dispute with over the latter's support of the rebellion is apparently settled and relations with the Sudan have improved. Libya is reportedly prepared to make some aid available to Chad, although no information is available on the amount and terms which may be offered. Chad also maintains close relations Common Market countries, the principal sources foreign aid and tech- nical assistance. It is a member of the Banque des Etats de !'Afrique Cen- trale (BEAC) with the C.A.R.~ Cameroon, the Congo and Gabon. Chad is also an associate member of the EEC, which provides substantial assistance the and is a member of the Lake Chad Basin Commission with Niger, and Cameroon, which is potentially important for the regional devel- the lake area.  I; THE IS SUES The government's fiscal cr~s~s now constitutes a major obstacle to development, as Chad cannot finance either the required capital or recurrent expenditure of new projects. Even essential economic services have had to be curtailed and unpaid public debts have mounted. The problem is compounded by the fact that the two main productive sectors, livestock and cotton (where economic returns have increased due to external price rises, although cotton has declined since the first quarter of 1972) still yield insufficient tax revenues to pay for adequate productive and social services in the regions concerned. Any development strategy to bring the country out of its present impasse must first concentrate on increasing production. This will require measures in the livestock sector, which will protect it as far as possible from severe periodic droughts, and raise output, while rationalizing the entire process of moving and marketing cattle. Cotton warrants new appro- aches not only for the mainly foreign-financed productivity program, but also for the bulk of the farmers producing cotton, millet and other crops. These farmers can be attracted by economic incentives, but lack the necessary organization of distribution and marketing. Second, with such a large share of the active population living at subsistence level and organized in traditional cultural patterns, a develop- ment strategy will have to be based on extensive knowledge of the rural popu- lation and the processes of change. Third, the management of the public sector is one of the key ele- ments in the outlook for development. Fiscal reform is urgent. Chad's budget must be kept austere and made to conform to a multiannual program carefully coordinated with foreign support and development priorities. Central gov- ernment coordination and implementation of mainly foreign-financed projects needs to be greatly strengthened. Considerable effort is required to acquire and use adequate foreign technical assistance, both to carry out the critical tasks in cotton and livestock, as well as to build the institutional framework for efficient public services in the key sectors. Basic reforms are needed in health policy and in education, so that Chad's underdeveloped human re- sources can make an effective contribution to the country's gro\v-th and there- by to the well-being of its people.  - 2 - II. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT A. GOP and Production Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy, accounting for 29 percent of GOP in 1971. Livestock and commerce each account for another 16 percent, and administration for 13 percent. Cotton is only 3 percent of GOP in the national accounts, as it is .valued at the government-fixed producer prices. Much of the value added by cotton is recorded in industry. Industry, including cotton ginning and meat processing, accounts for 8 percent of GOP. In the sixties the economy grew at an estimated 5 percent annual rate in cur- rent prices, and about 2 percent or less in constant prices. Growth occurred primarily in the market economy which includes cotton, commercial activities and the public services; the traditional economy is estimated to have grown by only 1 .6 percent annually in this period. No significant mineral produc- tion takes place. Small quantities of natron are produced and oil prospection is underway. Chad's economy is highly sensitive to variations in climatic con- ditions and in external prices for its main exports of cotton and livestock. In the agricultural areas of the south, which contain almost half the popu- lation, the growth of income, savings and investment are directly related to the annual output and prices of agricultural commodities. In recent years, the price of cotton rose from 25 cents a pound (c.i.f. Liverpool) in January 1967 to 40.7 cents a pound in January 1972, but had declined to 35 cents by October 1972. In the livestock zones, recent droughts have eliminated many years of growth in the size of herds with adverse effects on domestic incomes and the balance of payments.  - 3- Table 1: GDP ESTIMATES BY MAJOR SECTORS (In Billions of CFAF-Current Prices) 1968 1969 1970 1971 Growth Rates Amount % Amount % 1968-71 GDP 59.7 100.0 72.0 78.6 79.8 100.0 10.2 Traditional agriculture 19.5 32.7 24.9 25.2 22.9 28.7 5.5 Commerce 9.3 15.6 10.3 13.2 12.4 15.5 10.0 Animal 8.4 14.1 9.0 10.0 12.5 15.7 14.2 trative services 7.7 12.9 9.0 9.8 10.4 13.0 10.5 4.0 6.7 4.9 5.1 6.4 8.0 17 .o Cotton 2.4 4.0 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.9 Construction 2.3 3.8 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.3 4.2 Miscellaneous 6. 1 10.2 8.0 10.1 10.3 12.9 19.1 Source: Table 2.1 of the Statistical Appendix. fishing and forestry, but not cotton. A further factor which has affected recent economic performance is the which made wide areas of the country insecure, caused a diver- sion exports on the hoof from traditional routes, led to deteriora- tion in wells and other infrastructure, and caused a regression in the con- trol of animal disease. The recent growth of GDP reflects the impact of these exogenous influences. In 1969, GDP in current prices rose by an estimated 20 percent 10 percent in real terms). This rise was due to a record cotton and millet crop which followed an exceptionally good rainy season. Increased production led to rises in industrial value added from cotton ginning and related service activities. In 1969 and 1970, Chad had two successive years of drought which severely affected agricultural output and livestock herds. Cotton declined by about 30 percent in 1969/70, and by 21 percent in 19 As a result, total agricultural value added in current prices fell The full effects of the severe 1972 and 1973 droughts cannot be with the information available.  - 4- Livestock value added was affected both by declining herds and in- creasing prices. Official estimates show no growth in livestock herds since 1966s as about 300,000 animals were lost in the drought of 1968/69. However, livestock value added rose from CFAF8.4 billion in 1968 to CFAF12.5 billion in 1971, an increase of almost 50 percent, due to a rise of about 30 percent in meat prices. This is explained by rising demand from Nigeria and the August 1969 devaluation of the CFA franc relative to the Nigerian pound. Herders have started to sell underage and pregnant cattle, depleting the livestock capital stock in order to maximize incomes. The industrial sector is still small, contributing on average about 7 percent of GDP. However, this sector grew by about 17 percent per annum between 1968 and 1971, particularly in import substitution industries. This high rate of growth is the result of recent investments in a textile factory and a slaughterhouse and of the expansion of beer and soft drink production. Although the production of cotton lint has varied with cotton seed output, the production of cotton textiles increased by about 60 percent between 1968 and 1971. Similarly, beer production almost doubled during the same period and that of plastic shoes increased by about 10 percent. The production of chilled meat increased by 48 percent between 1968 and 1970 and then declined by 2.4 percent in 1971. Except for chilled meat, Chad's industrial output is consumed locally. The small domestic market and the remoteness of export markets are obstacles to further development of the industrial sector except for remaining import substitution potential. The dispersion of the domestic market also limits the size of plants. Industrial activity in Chad is con- centrated almost entirely in N'Djamena, Moundou and Sarh. About two-thirds of the industries are located in N'Djamena. Per capita GNP was estimated at US$80 in 1971s including nonmone- tary subsistence income which accounts for 35 percent of the total. Income is poorly distributed between the relatively higher-income area south of the Chari River, where cotton and food crops are grown, and the lower-income area north and west of the Chari, where livestock and some groundnut production are the mainstays. Further, there is a wide disparity in income between the rural areas and the still small, but rapidly growing urban centers. In the towns there is a widening gap between the relatively few wage earners engaged in so-called organized occupations, and the many migrants engaged in ninformal" or unorganized petty occupations; more information is needed about formal and informal employment and the links between them as a basis for development policy. A further disparity in real incomes not measured by the national accounts concerns the availability of public services, which, as will be shown in the first section of Chapter IV, are concentrated in parts of the south and in the towns, while the north is less well-served. In recent years, these income disparities have probably increased. The recent rise in livestock prices, however, may have increased herders' real incomes even though output may have been reduced. National accounts statistics give fairly accurate estimates of the growth in value added of modern sector activity in the towns. Much of this growth is generated by a relatively small number of wage earners, civil  - 5 - servants, merchants and others who constitute a new urban elite and whose real incomes are considerably above those of the migrants from rural areas. Reliable figures do not exist, however, for the traditional livestock and agricultural sectors. Accordingly, national accounts figures do not fully reflect income changes in these sectors. With a slow growth in per capita incomes, Chad has not had much success in mobilizing monetary savings. There may have been positive sav- ings and investment in the traditional economy in the better crop years, which are not shown in the national accounts. The public sector, however, has experienced increasing deficits in recent years. Negative gross domestic savings required the inflow of substantial amounts of foreign aid. B. Foreign Trade Variations in production are clearly reflected in foreign trade and balance of payments movements. Tables 3.1 and 3.2 in the Statistical Appendix list exports and imports, by commodities and by countries for 1967 to 1971. These data·are summarized in the following table:  - 6- Table 2: FOREIGN TRADE (In Billions of CFAF) 1968 1969 1970 1971 Imports 13.8 15.3 20.0 n.a. Metals, machinery, vehicles 3.4 3.6 5.1 5.4 Food, tobacco 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.4 Textiles, shoes 1.8 1 •6 1.7 1.6 Petroleum 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 Cement, chemicals 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 Other 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.4 Unregistered /a 0.5 1.4 2.8 n.a. Exports 9.4 9.1 8.7 n.a. Cotton lint 5.8 6.6 5.9 5.3 Meat, live animals, fish 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.9 Other 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 Unregistered /a 1.8 1.1 0.7 n.a. In % of GDP Imports 23.1 21.3 25.4 n.a. Exports 15.7 12.6 11.1 n.a. /a Estimates of unregistered trade are not available for 1971. The large differences in the estimates for 1969 and 1970 as comparedi to those of previous years indicate that unregistered imports were previously under- estimated) whereas unregistered exports may have been overestimated. The 1969 and 1970 estimates were prepared by the BCEAC from bank notes received or returned by Chad through foreign central banks; earlier estimates were made by the ~inistry of Economy, Commerce, and Transport. The Ministry of Commerce believes that the rise in unregistered imports may also be explained by the inducement given to such imports by Chad's decision to leave UDEAC and by the ending of hostilities in Nigeria in 1969. (See footnote 8 on UDEAC.) Source: Statistical Appendix, Table 3.1.  - 7 - Cotton exports have varied with changes in cotton seed production, reaching their highest level of CFAF6.6 billion in 1969, and then declining in 1970 and 1971. The effects of declining cattle exports were largely off- set by the rise in the value of meat exports, which doubled between 1969 and 1971. The big increase in imports after 1969 consisted mainly of certain categories of food, petroleum products, and machinery, and may have resulted from the inflow of foreign personnel and the expansion of military operations. The devaluation of the CFA franc in 1969 and the general price rise in Europe were other contributing factors. Prior to 1970, registered imports had remained almost constant, averaging about CFAF14 billion. During this period, the normal rise in imports was offset by expansion of domestic pro- duction of certain items, especially textiles, plastic shoes and sugar. C. Balance of Payments Table 3: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (In Billions of CFAF) 1969 1970 1971 Exports 9.1 12.2 11.7 Imports 10.6 14.1 14.7 Balance of trade -1.5 -1.9 -3.0 Nonfactor services (net) -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 Resource gap -5.8 -6.3 -7.1 Interest and investment income -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 Workers' remittances -1.3 -1.0 -1.6 Net transfers _1..& 4.0 4.6 Balance on current account -4.9 -3.9 -4.7 Capital grants 2.8 4.4 5.6 Direct foreign investment 0.7 0.3 0.1 Net public borrowing 0.7 0.1 Unclassified 0.7 Other ...1.!1 0.8 ~ Net movements 0.4 2.3 2.3 Source: Statistical Appendix, Table 3.5. As a result of this rapid growth in imports and the leveling off in 1971 exports, Chad's trade deficit doubled to CFAF3 billion in 1971. In 1970, export receipts exceeded trade figures by a large margin because of heavy payments for the 1969 record cotton exports in early 1970. In 1971, receipts were also unusually high due to prepayments by foreign buyers (see also the fourth section of Chapter II). 20. Chad's balance of payments shows a large resource gap. Between 1969 and 1971 this gap averaged CFAF6.4 billion, which is over 8 percent of GDP.  - 8- The country receives, however, substantial net transfers consisting of pension payments by France to former civil and military employees, and the net cost of foreign technical assistance. The current account deficit therefore averaged CFAF 4.5 billion, about 6 percent of GDP. These figures illustrate Chad's heavy dependence on outside resources. Capital grants include all public unrequited transfers, less the net cost of technical assistance. The net balance on these items doubled between 1969 and 1971 (from CFAF2.8 billion to CFAF5.6 billion), largely due to the rise in the external bilateral budgetary subsidy from about CFAF0.3 billion in 1969 to CFAF2.2 billion in 1971. In 1970, disbursements of FAC and FED grants amounted to CFAF1.4 billion and CFAF1.3 billion respec- tively, compared to CFAF0.7 billion and CFAF1 .8 billion respectively in 1969. Data for 1971 are not yet available. D. The Credit System Chad is a member of the BEAC together with the C.A.R., the Congo, Gabon and Cameroon. The bank issues a common currency, the CFA franc, and channels all foreign exchange transactions through its operations' account with the Bank of France which guarantees the conversion of CFA francs into French francs; Chad's normally negative foreign assets are offset by the positive reserves of other members. The Central Bank establishes limits on its credit to the government (up to 20 percent of the previous year's fiscal receipts for not more than 240 days), and controls the monetary system mainly through rediscount policy and minimum liquidity ratios. The monetary system consists of three commercial banks and the Chadian Development Bank, la Banque de neveloppment du Tchad (BDT); two of the commercial banks are branches of European banks and the third is owned by European interests and the Chadian Development Bank. The latter does the bulk of medium- and long- term financing and relies on rediscounts from the BEAC and advances from the Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE). After a 15 percent increase in 1969, the supply of credit to the private sector declined by 9 percent and 15 percent respectively in 1970 and 1971. and remained unchanged through most of 1972. The demand for short-term credit is closely linked to the marketing of cotton lint. In 1969, because of the record crop, cotton lint exports rose by 14 percent, which explains the increase in short-term credit. On the other hand, when cotton exports declined in 1970 and 1971, the demand for short-term credit was reduced accordingly. In 1971 the faster rate of commercialization of exports, as buyers bought the crop early, led to a substantial reduction in the required bank financing; it also caused Chad to lose part of the benefit of the sub- sequent price rises (see Statistical Appendix, Table 6.1). Central Bank credit to the Treasury (direct advances and discount ot customs bills) increased from CFAF784 million in 1968, to CFAF1,500 mil- lion in 1969 and CFAF1,717 million in 1970. These increases reflect the  - 9 - deterioration in public finances since 1968 (see also the second section of Chapter IV). The decline in 1971 to CFAF1,338 million was the result of the decision of the previous Central Bank, the Banque Centrale des Etats de !'Afrique Centrale (BCEAC), to reduce the ceiling on its direct advances from 15 to 10 percent of the previous year's fiscal receipts, and to limit the discounting of customs bills. By the end of 1972, Central Bank advances to the government were raised to CFAF1,639 million, which is 15 percent of the previous year's fiscal receipts, in view of the deterioration in the Treasury's financial position. The new Central Bank, BEAC, which started operations on April 2, 1973, is authorized to extend credit to member gov- ernments up to 20 percent of calendar year budget receipts. The net claims of the banking system on the Treasury are shown in the following table: Table 4: BANKING SYSTEM CLAIMS ON THE TREASURY AS OF DECEMBER 31 (In Millions of CFAF) 1968 1969 1970 1971 Central bank credit to the Treasury 784 1,500 1 '717 1,338 Less Treasury claims on banking system 590 720 846 963 - Currency (405) (432) (499) (560) - Deposits with BCEAC (36) (69) (94) ( 178) - Deposits with banks ( 149) (219) (253) (225) Net claims on Treasury 194 780 871 375 Source: Derived from Etudes et Statistiques Paris: BCEAC, 148(1969); 159(1970); 179(1972). Banking system statistics do not show the substantial and growing arrears of the Treasury to the private sector and the Chadian Development Bank, a good part of which may have been financed by external funds. The figures thus greatly understate claims on the Treasury. Between 1968 and 1971, the supply of money and quasi-money increased by 31 percent, an average annual increase of 9.4 percent. The money supply (narrowly defined) increased by 29 percent during the same period. These rates of growth are almost equal to the estimated rate of growth of GDP in current prices; the money supply amounted to about 7.7 percent of GDP in this period, and money and quasi-money 12 percent. Thus, it appears that the effects of the decline in credit to the economy were outweighed by those of other money supply determinants, such as increases in net foreign assets. The rise in banking system claims on the government was the main factor lead- ing to a 6.5 percent rise in money supply through the third quarter of 1972.  - 10 - Statistical Appendix Table 6.2 shows the breakdown of loans granted by the Chadian Development Bank according to economic activity for 1969, 1970~ and 1971. Loans for middle and upper income housing increased their relative share. Agriculture continued to account the largest share of the loans, averaging about 80 percent the three years. However~ the absolute amount and the number of loans to this sector declined continuously. Available in- formation does not explain the causes of this decline. It is not~worthy that loans to agriculture consisted mainly of sltort-term loans to the Societe Cotonniere Franco-Tthadienne (COTONFRAN). the connnercialization of cotton lint, loans to the Office National de Developpement Rural (ONDR) for farm equipment and advances to the government and to producers for the cost fertilizer, insecticide and other productivity program inputs. In 1970, loans to COTONFRAN declined to CFAF1,675 million as compared to CFAF2,090 million in 1969. The 1971 amount is not available, but it is even less than that of 1970. In the past, the BDT has derived its resources, apart from its share capital, from ts of public institutions, from rediscount- ing by the BCEAC, and from loans from the CCCE. Although there is no ceiling on the rediscount of cotton bills~ the BEAC has instituted ceilings on all other loans for all =inancial institutions. With the deteriora- tion of the public finance situation, the Treasury has had to use public in- stitution deposits to finance the government deficits also the second section of Chapter IV). The also owes the BDT substantial arrears, estimated at CFAF414 million, for the HFonds de Guarantie 11 and "Creances Douteuses et Contentieuses" of the cotton program. In 1972, the Central Bank refused to discount BDT bills for the productivity program inputs until the had corresponding amount to the "Fonds de Guarantie •11 2/ In view of the 's inabili to provide this amount, it was included in the Central advances to the Treasury. It is unlikely that this situation will improve within the next few years. As a result, the BDT will continue to operate under very tight arrangements and must rely almost on loans from the CCCE. E. Employment, Income Distribution, Prices and l\fages Chad has an excess supply of mainly male unskilled in its urban centers, a modern sector unable to likely increases in this urban labor force, and a rural sector characterized productivity, incomes and growth. Substantial wage differentials exist between urban and areas, based partly on the scarcity of skills in modern occupations, but also reflecting the strong dualism between the modern a.nd traditional economies~ 2/ The government's contribution to de Guarantie is 20 percent of total BDT credit to for ~ and covers the expected loss because of nonrepayment of BDT credits  - 11 - PoE.ulation Chad's population in 1970 was estimated at 3.6 million people, based on projections from the 1964 census, and is expected to rise to 4.5 million by 1980. This census is not very reliable. It provides no data on nonwage and salary employment and income. The population growth rate was estimated at 1.7 percent from 1963 to 1968, and is expected to rise to 2.1 percent in the period 1970-80. The zone north of the Chari River (Sahara and Sahelian regions) contained an estimated 1.9 million people compared with 1.7 million in the more densely settled south, but the south had higher mortality rates, concentrated in the younger age group through age twenty (Statistical Appendix, Table 1 .3). In the south, according to partial figures, the in- cidence of death due to such diseases as malaria~ small pox and measles was about a fourth higher than in the north. Intestinal parasites, an equally important cause of death, had almost the reverse impact on the north versus south. Life expectancy at birth is about thirty-six years for males in the , and thirty-one in the south; after age fifteen, these disparities are greatly reduced. As a consequence of higher male mortality rates, females are in the majority, particularly in the north (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.4). ]) Labor Force ------- In 1970, some 1.6 million people were considered part of the active population (fifteen to sixty years of age.) A breakdown of the estimated labor force by sex and occupational group is available only for 1964 and is shown in the following table. The participation of females in primary sector activities is probably underestimated. Table 5: LABOR FORCE, 1964 (In Thousands) Male Female Total % Inactive 34.6 560.5 595.1 43.3 Primary sector 520.4 212.8 733.2 53.4 Secondary and tertiary 42.5 2.4 44.9 3.3 (including public) Total 597.5 775.7 12373.2 100.0 Source: Annuaire Statistique 1969-70, Direction de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Fort-Lamy (no date). 1/ For further analysis, see c. Bouquet, "Les incertitudes de la demographie africaine: l'exemple du Tchad," Cahiers d'Outre-Mer 96 (Oct.-Dec. 1971), pp. 410-29.  - 12 - The potential labor force is expected to increase by some 2.3 percent annually in the next five years, slightly in excess of the popula- tion growth rate. Each year the net addition to the fifteen to sixty age group will be about 48,000 of whom 23,000 will be males. Urbanization Urban population (defined as people living in settlements of 5,000 and over) amounted to 7.6 percent of the total in 1964 and 11 percent in 1970. The growth rate of urban centers is estimated at 7.3 percent annually, of which 5 percent is due to net immigration. N'Djamena, which grew at about 8 percent per annum in the sixties, had 38 percent of the urban population in 1970 with 157,000 people. This was four times larger than the second city, Sarh; Chad has only four centers larger than 25,000. Although the population north of the Chari River is over half of the total, this region contains only · six out of twenty-two urban centers in the country (Statistical Appendix, Table 1 .8). Urbanization is heavily concentrated, as might be expected, in the sedentarized zone, and particularly in the northern end of this zone at N'Djamena. In the urban centers, the working age population is about 64 per- cent of the total population, 10 percent more than the national average. The urban working age population contains 54 percent males, compared with 48 per- cent nationally. By 1980, the urban population is expected to be 18 percent of the total. Half of the total expected increase in population of working age between 1970 and 1980, about 250,000 people, will be urban. Of these, 132,000 will be males. Accordingly, there will be an annual increment of 13,000 males seeking jobs in towns. Some part of the 12,000 annual increment of females of working age should also be entering urban labor markets as female participation rates increase. Both in numbers and concentration, this ris- ing urban labor force will constitute a major development problem for the 1970s (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.9). The towns will inevitably attract a high proportion of the young and vigorous, leaving more of the dependent in rural areas, thereby increasing the difficulty of exploiting the rural option. The section on Human Resources in Chapter IV will discuss how educa- tion and training aimed at rural activities may influence rural to urban migration. Modern Sector Employment In 1970, the urban population of working age may be estimated at some 142,000 males and 117,000 females. Wage and salary earners in 1970, however, totaled only 26,260, of whom less than 5 percent were female. In 1964, there were some 13,000 self-employed merchants and artisans, and cer- tainly more by 1970 (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.7). By far the largest part of the nonwage earners were engaged in petty commerce and other marginal service activities characterized by low productivity rates and high levels of underemployment. In short, at the start of the decade, there was a consid- erable problem of males of working age surplus to the demand for wage labor  - 13 - in the few existing urban centers, particularly in Fort-Lamy, as it was then. The bulk of these nonwage earners and their families were housed in self-built mud huts, relying on wells and the river for water, with no access to modern sewerage facilities. Total modern sector employment and wages was as follows in 1970: Table 6: MODERN SECTOR EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Total CFAF Average Annual Wage Employment (Millions) Wage (in Rounded in US$ 1,000 CFAF) Private sector 13~216 4,491 339 1,200 Semipublic 1,514 352 232 BOO Public sector 11,410 3,440 301 1,100 Military (civil employees) 126 23 182 660 Total 26,266 8,306 316 Source: Derived from Rapport Annuel 1970, Direction du Travail, de la Main d'Oeuvre et de la Prevoyance Sociale, Fort-Lamy (no date). Modern wage and salary employment is almost equally divided between private and public sectors. About 6,000 private sector employees work for COTONFRAN and have since become semipublic employees under the successor organization, Societe Cotonniere Tchadienne (COTONTCHAD) the government's processing and marketing agency. About 15 percent of modern sector wage and salary earners are foreigners. The percentage of foreigners in top management positions has declined from 94 percent in 1967 to 86 percent in 1970. However, in the skilled worker category, the percentage of foreigners rose by some 10 percent of the total between 1969 and 1970 for reasons that are not entirely clear, but which are probably due to the starting up of new enterprises such as the beer and textile factories (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.10). Table 6 shows that average wage and salary incomes were about CFAF316,000 in 1970. Assuming four family members to an income, this would amount to about CFAF79t000 per capita compared with an estimated national per capita income of about CFAF22,000. Public sector average wages are less than private sector since the latter is heavily weighted by the relatively high salaries paid to expatriates. The growth of public sector employment is in part based on the official policy of employing all returning students who seek jobs in the government. In contrast, the private sector is experiencing a shortage  - 14 - Chadians with modern skill. ~/ Government wage and salary payments rose by an average of 12 percent annually. Over the past decade these payment in- creases have exceeded the growth of total budgetary expenditures. Wages and Prices No representative price index exists for average incomes earned in urban centers. An index designed to measure the impact of price rises on the consumption basket of European technical assistants showed increases of between 6 and 7 percent from 1968 through 1970 due to the higher cost of im- ported goods and of housing and transport, among other items (Statistical Appendix, Tables 9.1 and 9.2). There are price controls for basic consumer goods and foods and there is no evidence of corresponding rises for these although there has been official criticism of the failure to publicize the applicable maximum prices on consumer goods. While wage rate increases follow the increases in the "European" consumer price index, they further widen the disparity between urban and rural incomes. In addition, high wages in the small "modern" sector of the economy, which are above the shadow wage (and not based on scarce skills) raise the cost of industrial output, increase the cost of cotton processing to the disadvaJJ.tage of cotton farmers, cause high recurrent costs to the government budget, and act as an inducement to migrate to the city for the many who will find expectations of modern sector jobs difficult to satisfy$ The bulk of cotton farmers have probably had little or no change in real income for years since producer prices and output remained substantially unchanged. These farmers may even have seen their real incomes eroded as prices of imported goods rose. In 1970, the government-determined private sector minimum wage rate was raised by 36 percent for nonagricultural workers in the lowest wage categories, the first increase since 1964, which probably approximates to the increase in prices during this period (Statistical Appendix, Table 9.3). ~/ This will be discussed further in the first section of Chapter IV~  - 15 - III. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND PROBLEMS Chad's poverty is rooted in the lov1 productivity of the agriculture and livestock sectors, which also contain the bulk of the , to raise rural productivity would also sources needed to alleviate poverty. An essential condition is that make the fullest use of the country's abundant factor, i.ts labor supply, since programs which lead to exodus to the growing towns can only be counterproductive. Chad not have a urban option. Although urban areas contain the of modern sector value added and wage and salary employment, and thus do con- to the national income, the sufficient jobs, nor housing, nor social migrated. The towns have only limited modern sector growth. Indeed, they require a of the :nation limited resources in order to furnish them wi tb even ).nade- infrastructure and social services. In short, there is no basic conflict between and this perspective. By raising productivity in livestock and sectors, both the public and private means will become available and its fellow travelers, sickness. malnutrition, and A. Livestock Animal husbandry is the main occupation for over half of the popu- lation~ V.7ho inhabit principally the Sahelian zones north of the Chari River,. It accounts for 16 percent of GDP and indirectly for the part of the value added earned from cattle transport, marketing, and meat pro- average livestock exports for the period 1968-70 amounted estimated 26 percent of the total cattle sold abroad on the hoof because of evasion of official export controls. Statistical Table 7 3 shows the rise in estimated unrecorded livestock exports ® Recorded and unrecorded sales of meat, livestock, hides, and skins abroad may have amounted to 28 percent of the total value of exports in 19"70. The export value animals and meat rose sharply because a 30 increase in external meat prices between 1969 and 1971. Rising in- comes in following the civil wart and an effective devaluation the CFA franc with respect to the Nigerian pound, gave a dramatic :!.mpetus to Chadis l:i.vestock exports, although, in December 1971, the CFA franc rose to Nigerian pound in line with general exchange rate adjust- ments More important, however, a long-run structural increase in demand meat i.s believed to be underway, largely stemming from the rapidly growing high-income urban centers on the West Coast of Africa tatis- ' Tables 7.3 and 7.4). As a result, the government already  - 16 - somewhat changed the of some livestock projects as investments which could once net be justified on the basis of low returns in animal husbandry an.d now promise far higher returns. Livestock has of course, always been a key sector in Chad's economy. The changed outlook and earlier emphasis on methods to meet this increased demandn It is basically a question of raising the meat sup- :tn the face of factors as the availability of pasture and 1.va ter, the o£ ;livestock herders, and the problem of public Suuply Limitations in 1971 was still officially estimated at 4.5 million cattl·:, zebus, <>·Thich are particularly adapted to the harsh conditions of the sub-Sahara. However, in 1968/69, an estimated 0.3 million ~vere lost due to ::h:e The severe droughts of 1972 and 1973 reportedly caused ~ 25 loss in the total size of the herd. No es- timates are ts of the 1973 drought. It will take several years t:t:ese 1cssr;;;s can be reconstituted, assuming normal rainfall conditions9 197 there were an estimated '1.5 million , 2.8 million goats as wel::L a.s ce,;:nels :"lorses, and donkeys in smaller (Sta- tistical ':::'c,itd.e $ Tb.te cattle herd has a comparatively 1ow pro- ty, as ar:imels haYe and mature in five to seven yee.rs, com- three to f0:c:,:c- :;~;:1 South ~me rica. Further, mortality of calYes is As Tfiater ;_s lJ..mi ted, available grasslands can be ted seasonal1.y,Cattle herds move up to 400 kilometers north and south in search of water and. pe.st::;.re. Hore recently, nomads have been settling in areas where water is le. More herders have also been growing millet as a supplementary The tradition of regarding cattle as a store of wealth is and herders are increasingly willing to sell surplus stock to cash for cereals and other products and to pay taxes. A rise in b.e:::d offtake from about 6 percent to 11 percent of the total took place in the last decade as a result of improvements in disease control, availabilt of wa·.::er and the opening of markets. 5/ Huch progress was made in disease control ir?. the early sixties as a result of official efforts associated 'ilii:h the ::Lnternational rinderpest control campaign. The securi problems in made i.t impossible to continue ve.ccination in many areas and the the earlier program 1;.1as partly lost. A new n.ationvJ'ide effort ·'-"'· er:imal health therefore has priority P and is feasible in view of the situation. In contrasts A~erican producers achieve in about half thee ~::f_;:;:;,z: it Zeba cattle under the harsh of the African Sa.X1~eY~0 rates in ~-lest San:;th, AmJ2Ti.c;s, ;;"'here offtake gverages IJ'-e;7elopment Project Chad, 1' IBRD _,...., 3a.nk, 1972. ~ f..Ji n ',..,"  - 17 - Inadequate nutrition is the main cause of cattle death and weight loss. Better calf nutrition is especially important for more efficient animal production. Under the prevailing harsh conditions, calves and humans increasingly compete for the same milk supply during the dry season. The most effective way of raising the size of herds, and thereby raising output, is to increase the supply of water so that presently unused pasture can be exploited. Major progress in this respect was not possible while wide areas were insecure. Indeed, existing wells were not maintained and the government is still underfinancing current operations. In 1972 IDA a project to construct, reconstruct and maintain wells in the This is expected to raise annual herd growth there to 2 per- cent annually, compared with the 1.4 percent national average growth rate. Without this project, output would be expected to decline gradually. Of course, the production of meat is also a function of the average t of animals, and its value on the market depends also on quality. Returns from Livestock greatest potential for increased returns to herders and the whole economy lies in improving the health, transportation, and marketing of cattle. Returns to herders are difficult to estimate with available. in- formation" The richest livestock area was estimated in 1966 to have a per capita cash income of CFAF4,800 yearly (see the first section of Cnapter IV)o However, most herders live mainly on milk from cattle, sheep and goats. The recent large rise in prices must have benefitted cattle owners~ who are main- ly organized on a tribal basis (Statistical Appendix, Tables 7.6 and 7. Not much can be said of the income distribution as affected by price rises and subsequent losses due to drought. In 1970, an estimated 241,000 cattle were exported from Chad to markets over two main routes -- 62 percent on the hoof, and the balance as chilled meat (29 percent) and dried meat (9 percent) --to neighboring countries (Statistical Appendix, Table 7. The main route goes west through N'Djamena to Nigeria, and the other goes south, through Sarh to Bangui, in the C.A.R. The loss of weight is con- • from 10 to 20 percent by the time the animals reach N~Djamena and Sarb., and increasing as they proceed to the coastal cities. A net- work of organized stock routes is needed, including available water and pasture as well as vaccination stations. The lack of stock roads led to the closing of a large-scale ranch project in Batha, some 550 kilometers from N'Djamena, as during the trek to the abattoir animals lost most of the weight they had gained. Although ranching would substantially improve herd productivity and quality, some basic prob- lems will have to overcome before it can be done on a large scale. Land tenure and usage rights are ill-defined, and there are formidable obstacles in preventing fire, theft, and tribal encroachments. Fencing and other capital improvements are expensive. FAC is supporting an experiment in ranching or- ganized around tribal groups near N'Djamena, which reportedly will not re- quire time will be needed to evolve a successful ranching formula* Substantial losses of potential occur through accidental and intentional • Enclosing the herds at night, too, cuts grazing time  18 Livestock has to be closely connected with potential returns to the public sector as well as to herders. With the aboli- tion of animal head taxes in year 1973, only the poorly enforced export tax yields any return to the public sector. On the other hand, the government has the obligation to provide such producer services as capital investments and recurrent expenditures for wells and vaccination programs. The government, for social and political reasons, would also like to expand education and health facilities for the entire area north of the Chari River, which is par in these respects. In 1971, livestock taxes yielded some CFAF300 million, of which half came from the head taxc The budget of the livestock service alone came close to this amount in 1970, and exceeded it in 1971 tical Appendix, Tables 7.8 and 7 .9). It is generally acknowledged that the head tax on cattle was un- economic ast in effect, it taxed the capital stock of the herder and created a disincentive to increase herds. The collection of this tax has been bit- terly resisted and, as already mentioned, was a contributing factor to the rebellion. Between 1961 and 1966 the head tax was increased by 50 percent, while herds grew by 13 The one area where taxes from livestock have been collected and are increasing is from processed, mainly chilled meat. The main abattoir is at N'Djamena, which has a capacity of some 11,000 tons (70,000 head) and is being expanded by a third. The present capacity is equivalent to half the animals exported live on the hoof (Statistical Appendix, Tables 7.2 and 7. In terms of export taxes a live animal yields an average of CFAF200-300 (assuming 75 percent evasion), and as carcass meat CFAF1,800 (1970 prices), However~ several difficulties cloud future prospects for meat sales. First, with rising prices and limited sup- plies, cattle delivered to the abattoir are declining in average weight. In Nigeria, reports indicate that not only underage but pregnant cattle from Chad are being sold slaughter. Second, shipments of chilled meat are mainly to Kinshasa and Brazzaville. The high freight costs and competition from higher quality East African meat have reportedly led to a decline in sales to the Kinshasa market since 1971. Nigerian regulations favor its own abattoirs and effectively make sales of chilled meat from Chad to the main Nigerian cities The abattoir at Sahr was planned on too elaborate a scale. Both the abattoir and related tannery are running at less than capacity, as they have never been able to acquire a supply of good quality meat; insecurity in the center east led to a diversion of cattle through the Sudan and the C.A.R •• The abattoirs in the C.A.R. also provide keen competition. In general some 35 to 50 percent of the annual offtake of Chad's herds are of a quality unsuitable for export. With the supply of meat in- creasing slowly. domestic consumption appears to be rising and absorbing most of recent production increases, Domestic consumption rose from an estimated 23,600 tons (carcass weight) in 1966 to 27,400 in 1970, while exports re- mained at some 36,000 tons (Statistical Appendix, Table 7.2). Of course, loss of cattle in the 1968/69 drought would have reduced the availability of cattle in this period. In the future, domestic consumption will probably be restrained since exports, to Nigeria, bring higher prices than domestic consumers can pay. For their own meat supply, Chad herders depend largely on and  - 19 - Developme~Stra~~ The basic need is for a livestock development strategy of coor- dinated efforts to raise production, market cattle, and collect taxes so that the government can finance public services in the livestock zones. The livestock development unit partly financed by the IDA livestock credit, the UNDP and FAC are studying such a strategy, a key part of which will be to monitor exports for tax purposes by integrating traditional markets where Chadian cattle are sold for export on the hoof into the system of stock roads, wells 9 and holding ranches. For fiscal purposes the object would be to in- crease returns to herders sufficiently through the availability of these facilities so that they would not resist paying a reasonable tax on the sales value for cattle sold in these markets, and would also be willing to pay a modest fee for the use of government-supported wells and for veterinary services on a per head treatment basis. No charge would be made for vaccina- tions. In 1970, the head tax on cattle yielded CFAF150 million and the export tax and other taxes a similar amount. In contrast, a system of the type proposed could produce between CFAF600 to 700 million in annual tax revenues from the outset, according to preliminary estimates. Inadequate livestock services are a major constraint to increasing the output and productivity of cattle herds. In Hay 1971, a separate Ministry of Livestock was established to coordinate efforts in this field. Water sup- ply, however, remained the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural Development. The Farcha Veterinary Research Laboratory in N'Djamena provides capable sup- port to the government veterinary services. The livestock service, however, suffers from a serious lack of trained staff and operating funds for effec- tive field work. Most of the staff is fully occupied with disease control. There are no livestock extension services, farmer training, nor range manage- ment services. Efforts to train livestock owners will be delayed by the shortage of trained government staff. In turn, the lack of fiscal resources makes it increasingly difficult to operate existing services, let alone expand them. The growth prospects for cattle at best will be limited for this decade but can be improved thereafter. Prospects will be discussed in Chapter V. B. Cotton and the Agricultural Sector Cotton is Chad's most important cash crop. In 1971, it accounted for close to 14 percent of monetized GDP (excluding traditional nonmarketed products), 68 percent of estimated recorded and unrecorded exports (higher than for the U.A.R. and Sudan) and about 7 percent of government revenues from export taxes, excluding more general fiscal benefits. The cotton-pro- ducing area south of the Chari River (see map) contains almost half Chad's total population~ of whom 87 percent derive their livelihood from agricul- ture and devote 40 percent of their arable land to cotton (farm size averages  - 20 - 2.7 hectares). Almost all the farms in the southern region grow some cotton, usually rotated and associated with other crops, as it is the only important cash crop. Cotton also produces secondary benefits, such as employment for some 6,000 workers by COTONTCHAD. Given the limited alternatives, cotton will remain a key factor in economic development. The basic issue concerns the best strategy for realizing the maximum potential from its cultivation in the light of the failure of existing programs to meet their objectives. There are really two cotton economies in Chad. First, there is the economy of the traditional farmers, who initially were obliged to grow cotton earlier in the century to have cash to pay taxes and to supplement millet and sorghum, and who have voluntarily continued to do so~ They are by far the majority. Second, there is the small group of farmers who have recently adopted relatively sophisticated inputs and techniques under the government's productivity program and who will remain the subject of most government and foreign aid agency attention in the new development plan (1971-80). The following discussion first reviews the major features of the productivity program, and then examines the returns of this to (a) the farmer, (b) the government, and (c) the economy, in order to assess future agricultural prospects and proposed development strategies. The Productivity Program The productivity program began on a small scale in 1958 and received its first impetus after 1964 when the FED, FAC, and the Chadian government launched a major effort to raise cotton output and farmer income by subsidiz- ing fertilizers, insecticides, and sprayers for farmers willing to adopt more intensive and complicated methods of cultivation. The program included an important price support element which was to be reduced over time. The ONDR was set up in 1966 to distribute modern inputs and coordinate extension services, mainly financed by FAC and the FED. The Chadian Government paid for the Chadian extension services. Total cotton seed output rose from 98,000 tons in 1960/61 to an estimated 108,000 in 1971/72, after reaching a high of 149,000 tons during the exceptionally favorable 1968/69 season (Statistical Appendix, Table 7.10). By smoothing out fluctuations with a three-year moving average, output is estimated to have risen at an average annual rate of 3 percent. The area under the productivity program never covered more than a relatively small proportion of all cotton land, rising from 6,900 hectares (2.3 percent of the total) to 44,000 hectares in 1969/70 (14.8 percent of the total). By 1971/72, the area under the program had declined to some 42,000 hectares or 13.9 per- cent of the total (Statistical Appendix, Table 7.11). One region, the Mayo-Kebbi, accounted for over 60 percent of the area under the productivity program and two districts in that region made up 80 percent of this. The program is not significant in any other area. The Mandoul valley area, for example, had less than half the 5,500 hectares called for by the program target despite impres- sive infrastructure, equipment, and extension service expenditures. Apparently, the program did best where the soil, weather and the motivation and skills of the farmers were most favorable, and was less successful where more marginal lands and perhaps less responsive and able farmers were included.  - 21 - In spite of its limited coverage, probably as much as half of the increased output in recent years may be attributed to the productivity pro- gram. Total traditional cultivation yields probably rose by 20 to per- cent over the last decade through the introduction of new varieties of seed. Under normal weather conditions, average traditional cultivation yields may be estimated at 350 kilograms per hectare, with ranges from 150 kilograms in the poor soil of the southwest to a 450 kilograms in the Mayo-Kebbi; yields up to 600 kilograms per hectare have been obtained by the best farmers. The productivity program objectives were based on yields of 1,200 kilograms per hectare which have only been obtained under laboratory type conditions in- volving the proper timing and application of fertilizers and pesticides. In fact, in the last two campaigns, yields in areas under the productivity pro- gram have been far less, ranging from 600 to 850 kilograms depending on soil quality. In the Mayo-Kebbi region, however, yields ranged from over 1.000 kilograms for 30 percent of the farmers, to below 700 kilograms for 25 per- cent of the farmers. Timing and rainfall have an important influence on output, but do not adequately explain the disappointing yields and the failure of the pro- gram to expand as expected. Two drought years in succession may have in- duced farmers to grow more food crops at the expense of cotton in order to maintain total food output. The failure of the program to meet its objec- tives can be attributed to several factors which are difficult to analyze separately. Among these causes, weight would have to be given to failure to use available inputs properly, partly as a result of the insufficient quality and quantity of extension services. Further, the program as executed mainly concentrated on cotton output to the neglect of food crops which, as suggest- ed, have a first priority for farmers. There is, of course, a positive re- lationship between cotton under the productivity program and food output, as the latter benefits from the residual effects of the fertilizers used to grow cotton. Finally, and perhaps most important, the evidence also sug- gests that an erosion of economic incentives may have played a considerable role in reducing the interest of the farmers. To show this, it will be use- ful to eJcamine economic returns of the program to farmers. Returns to Producers The FED program stipulates a gradual reduction in its subsidy of input costs; the FED share of full costs fell from 50 percent in 1967/68 to 35 percent in 1970/71. FED raised its estimated share to 46 percent in 1971/72 in recognition of rising costs, which would otherwise have to be passed on to the Chadian Government or to producers. Part of the rising cost (mainly transportation) of importing fertilizers and insecticides has been paid by the farmer who has seen his contribution rise from nothing in the early sixties to CFAF5,000 per hectare in 1967/68, and to CFAFS,SOO in 1970/71 (Sta- tis Appendix, Table 7.12). However, for fourteen years, the price re- ceived by the farmer was fixed at CFAF26 per kilogram. For the 1971/72 campaign, price for sorted cotton was raised to CFAF28 per kilogram. The price of unsorted cotton was unchanged.  - 22- The following table compares returns to farmers under traditional cultivation and under the productivity program, on the basis of actual and full costs of inputs and average yields: Table 7: RETURNS ON COTTON CFAF Days Worked Income per Day (Except where Indicated) (CFAF) Traditional cultivation Yield kg/ha 350 90 101 Gross income of farmers 9,100 (CFAF per ha) Productivity program Yield {kg) 800 Gross income (per ha) 20,800 /a 150 Full costs of inputs 1971/72 11,000 Actual subsidized cost to producers 5,500 Returns To producer: With full costs 9,800 With actual charges 15,300 150 102 Net gain from the productivity program: With full costs 700 60 12 With actual charges 6,400 60 107 /a At CFAF26 per kilogram, producer price. Source: Data obtained from Chadian authorities and "Etudes des effets economiques de la diffusi<;m des engrais au Tchad," Fort-Lamy: SEDES, 1968. The table is, of course, based on averages. Only the better areas and farmers have obtained 800 kilograms or more 6/. In these areas, the marginal daily return of CFAF107 {at 1971/72 input costs) seems to be suf- ficient to keep them in the program. In some less favored areas, however, where yields are closer to 600 kilograms, the marginal daily return is far less, and must be weighted against the loss of traditional food crops which would be sacrificed if the equivalent of an extra two months were to be devoted to cotton. In practice, farmers probably do no more than the equiva- lent of thirty extra days' work, in view of the limited returns obtainable from the extra work. This would raise the actual returns to producers from !I In Upper Volta a more carefully phased program has resulted in average yields of 700 kilograw~ per hectareQ  - 23 - CFAF107 to CFAF214 a day (Table 7). In the poorer areas, repayment rates have been declining steadily since the program began (Statistical Appendix, Tables 7.13 and 7.14). It is estimated that only 20 percent of the farmers, mostly in the Mayo-Kebbi, obtain benefits from the subsidized program, 40 percent break even and 40 percent are losing income and time. With r1s1ng costs to farmers, fixed producer prices, and stabilized yields, the future credibility of the program is in doubt. A new five-year productivity program is currently under considera- tion with the aim of overcoming the problems identified in the first program, and of more than doubling the area under the program in the five-year period to 36 percent of the total in 1976/77. The new program is estimated to cost CFAF10.7 billion with participation by FED (CFAF3.2 billion), FAC (CFAF1.7 billion), the Chadian Government (CFAF2.7 billion), and producers (CFAF3.1 billion). The new program envisages FED subsidies of 50 percent of the total cost of fertilizers and insecticides and equipment, and the costs of a food crop and livestock development program, on a declining basis with the dif- ference made up by government. FAC would finance expatriate personnel of the extension services, training of the local extension se~1ice, and the cost of research and field trials. In addition to the above, IDA has been asked to finance cotton feeder roads and secondary road improvements in the cotton area. The new program recognizes the need to have adequate numbers of trained personnel and to give farmers incentives to join associations for the purpose of combating parasites and promoting proper cultivation techniques. The program would be based on an integrated approach to cotton growing, including food crops, livestock for meat and as draft animals, the processing of cotton seed oil for export, and cotton cake for animal feed. An unsolved problem is the financing of the government's contribution. The government does not propose to agree to a new program until a full assessment has been made of the last program. Its concern is that cotton and related agricultural activi- ties become a fully viable sector by the end of the decade and that subsidies be progressively reduced before then. The new program will have the best chance of success if it is re- stricted to the better areas for growing cotton, which reportedly do not exceed 250,000 hectares (80 percent of the total area). Indeed with lower prices expected in the future, it will be necessary to raise yields in these areas of greatest potential to make cotton under the productivity program financially self sustaining. Returns to the Government A key issue in assessing the viability of the cotton productivity program for Chad's development is the impact of the program and the sector on government finances. Unless government revenues exceed costs of the program, there is no way to finance the deficits for very long. Further, given the state of public finances and the lack of alternative sources of revenues, even the ability of the government to maintain and expand essential health and education, as well as economic services, including road mainten- in the cotton zone, would be in jeopardy unless cotton can pay its own way.  - 24 - Table 8: COSTS AND REiJENUES OF THE COTTON FRCX1H.AN, 1961~/65-1971/72 (in billions of CFAF) 1964/65-1969/70 1970/71 1971/7? Direct Financial Operations Gross price support by CSPC through COTONFRAN (price paid to the producer minus 17% f.o.b. price X cotton seed output) -4,2)5 -600 -6l_IJ CSPC share in COTONFRAN profits 1,626 300 JSO Net CSPC price support -2~629 -300 -293 Taxes on cotton exports and COTONFRAN )~ '617 650 Net Government revenues on cotton 1,9138 350 other Costs FED price support payments •1,250 FED subsidy for inputs used in productivity program -1,6Rlr -200 -lf\? Government cost of cotton extension servtnes -993 -200 -200 Total other costs -3,927 -400 -382 other Revenues Head taxes collected through cotton marketing syste~ 3,500 700 700 (Estimated export tax produced by additional output due to productivity program) (314) (117) (120) NEr GAIN 1,561 650 Source: CDrONFRAN, COTONTCHAD and IBRD mission estimates.  - 25 - The analysis of the productivity program and government finances is compli- cated by the fact that export taxes are levied on all cotton. There is no precise way to separate the additional output of the productivity program from traditional farm output. Further, account must be taken of FED and FAC payments for price support, inputs and extension services in arriving at a fair estimate of costs and benefits. A private company, COTONFRAN, had a monopoly of the processing and marketing of all cotton until 1971, when it was replaced by a comparable public company, COTONTCHAD. COTONFRAN paid producers the official price of 26 francs per kilo, but was bound to bear only the equivalent of 17 percent of the f.o.b. price. Since this share has always been less than the official price, the stabilization fund, Caisse de Stabilisation des Prix du Caton (CSPC), consistently paid COTONFRAN the difference. Further, if COTONFRAN lost money because of low internat.ional prices, the loss was shared by COTONFRAN and CSPC. They also shared profits on processing and marketing. CSPC resources, apart from a share in profits, were provided by government advances and FED price support subsidies. FED subsidized the cost of fertilizers and insecticides under the productivity program for cotton, and FAC and the Government paid technical assistants mainly used in this program. FAC technical assist- ance may be regarded as an investment, the cost of which should be amortized over a long period •. Figures for recent years are only estimates, particularly because of unsettled accounts between COTONTCHAD and its predecessor. Table 8 summarizes the outcome of the cotton campaign under these arrangements for the last plan (1964/65-1969/70) and for 1970/71 and 1971/72. The FED program was agreed under the first Yaounde Convention, which called for the EEC to finance most of the deficit if the f.o.b~ ex- port price fell below CFAF141 per kilogram-FED price support commitments were made on a declining scale. No payments were made for the 1967/68 season as the f$o.b. export price rose to CFAF142. Under the second Yaounde Convention (July 1969), no price supports are provided for, al- though an emergency fund is supposed to be available to assist countries whose export crops are hard hit by natural disasters or sharp declines in world prices. During 1964/65-1969/70, the government gained CFAF2 billion from direct financial operations in the cotton sector. Excluding FED price support , the net would have been CFAF0.7 billion. On a full-cost basis, including subsidized inputs for the productivity program, the gov- ernment would have lost CFAF1.9 billion. However, the estimated head taxes collected through the cotton marketing system are included~ on the assumption they would have been difficult to collect without the program, a net gain of CFAF1.6 billion can be estimated for the period. During the last two years on record, 1970/71 and 1971/72, the mission estimates the net gain at CFAF0.7 and CFAFOe8 billion. This more favorable result is mainly due to higher export prices. With certain assumptions it is possible to approximate the impact of the productivity program on output and revenues. Assuming an additional output of kilograms per hectare on the average farm land included in the program over a normal output of 350 kilograms per hectare, the total gain in taxes would have been CFAF314 million during 1964-70 when the program was getting underway, and about CFAF120 million in the two years thereafter.  - 26 - The cost of FED-financed inputs during the first five years was five times this amount. In the last five years, estimated FED-financed inputs are close to twice the gain in export taxes. Even allowing for a wide margin of error in these estimates, it is clear that the productivity program will have to produce higher yields per hectare, and at a lower input cost, if it is to provide official productivity support for inputs which will be self-terminat- ing, The export price of cotton will largely determine whether the cotton sector, excluding FED price support and subsidized inputs, will re- quire public subsidies or earn net profits for the public sector. As Chart I shows~ the cost of producing a ton of cotton lint declines markedly as output rises. There has been a structural rise in the cost of transport to the coast in recent years which is included in these figures. At a producer price of CFAF28 per kilogram and an estimated 1971/72 cotton lint output of 41,000 tons, the cost per kilogram, including transport to the sea, would be about CFAF150. The f.o.ba export price is expected to be CFAF175 in 1972, making for extraordinarily high profits. At a price of about CFAF140 per kilogram, which has prevailed in recent years, COTONTCHAD would lose money and would require government subsidies or other public subsidies to make up the difference. Economic Returns Even if the extraordinarily high costs of the first years of the productivity program could not be covered by revenues generated from the cotton produced, it would not indicate poor performance by the entire cotton sector. Excluding the expenses devoted to the productivity program, as well as the additional inputs and tax revenues from the program, then cotton more than paid its way in terms of net revenues to the state, with- out FED price supports. These net revenues in effect were sufficient to have covered the estimated cost of direct government services to the area south of the Chari during the last plan. These net revenues would, however, not have been sufficient to pay for a share of general government overheads. In calculating economic returns it would be necessary to assume a lower wage rate in cotton processing than the relatively high wages paid in such employment. COTONTCHAD has reduced excessive freight costs by acquiring its own trucks (see Chapter V), so that actual transport costs for cotton pro- bably approximate the economic cost of transport. Economic returns of cotton in the traditional economy are probably high enough to warrant further expansion, as there are no alternative uses of land and labor which would produce higher net benefits. The opportunity costs of farm family labor producing cotton using traditional methods is probably very low; there is no alternative economic use for this labor since there is no market for increased output of millet and sorghum under the exist- ing distribution system. There is, however, an opportunity cost for farm labor under the productivity program, in view of the extra time this requires which is at the expense of food crops (see the third section of Chapter III).  - 27 - Close to half the population south of the Chari benefits from the cash income from cotton crops. This in turn is an important factor supporting the demand for imported goods and for the increasing domestic production of substitutes for imports. There are no consumption studies available to demonstrate this in greater detail. Cotton thus accounts for a large part of export taxes (65 percent of the total) and indirectly for an important part of import and income taxes. Aside from the direct employment of people in the producing regions, cotton must therefore also be credited with creating a good part of modern sector wage employment, as well as related service occupations which absorb so much of Chad's labor force. For example, COTONTCHAD's employees, much of the transport industry, and the textile mills are all connected with cotton output. A further economic benefit is cotton's contribution to foreign ex- change earnings. Cotton in 1970 accounted for close to 70 percent of export earnings and 30 percent of the country's import requirements. Given the very small government current and capital contribution to traditional cotton growing, the effective exchange rate of foreign exchange on this expenditure is far more favorable in terms of foreign exchange earned than the official rate for the CFAF. The productivity program, of course, would show a much poorer result in this respect considering its heavy inputs of public funds. c. Traditional Agriculture Chad's agriculture is principally concentrated in the regions south of the Chari. Millet and sorghum, the traditional crops, are grown mainly for subsistence, accounting for about 8 percent of GDP; they are produced throughout the Sahelian zone as well as the south. In the Sahel, many live- stock herders grow one crop of millet just after the rainy season. Ground- nuts are produced in both areas although most output is from the south. Millet and sorghum production in 1969/70 was officially estimated at some 651,000 tons of which 90 percent was consumed by producers and the rest marketed. Output is believed to have exceeded this level in good rain- fall years. In the drought year 1970/71, output fell to 610,000 tons and in 1971/72 to 600,000 tons. Supplies were inadequate for domestic needs and foreign aid agencies shipped in grain. Small quantities of wheat (about 6,000 tons) are produced in the Bol polder area of Lake Chad, most of which is exported illegally across the lake to Nigeria, in view of the low pur- chase price in Chad and the high cost of overland transport to N'Djamena. There are some attempts to diversify and modernize agriculture. Studies are being made to determine the feasibility of substantially expanding irrigated acreage in the polders to 60,000 hectares, starting with an initial 3,000 hectares for the period covered by the plan. If successful, this project could ultimately transform Chad's agricultural prospects and provide substantial income for a large rural population. Pilot programs show extra- ordinarily high yields for long staple cotton and wheat without fertilizer.  - 28- Costs of irrigation and other infrastructure are, however, also high and integrating the traditional herders and millet farmers into a sophisticated farm economy may present problems. Some 39,000 tons of paddy rice were produced in 1970/71 on 300 hectares of irrigated land, 2,500 hectares under partial irrigation and 20~000 hectares or more rainfed. Output reportedly rose to 60,000 tons in 1971/72 as dike repairs along the Logone permitted an expanded area to be cultivated. Production is expected to be down in 1972/73 as the river failed to flood many fields. The IBRD has been asked to finance an 11,000 hectare rice irrigation project in the Sategui-Deressia plain, which would benefit some 2,500 families and double their estimated per capita incomes, after project costs, to US$75 per annum. Production of groundnuts, basically a subsistence crop in Chad, amounts to some 90,000 tons in years with good rainfall. Output fell to 70,000 tons in 1971/72 because of drought conditions. Small quantities of tobacco have been grown experimentally in Chad. Plans exist to produce modest quantities of tobacco for domestic cigarette consump- tion, mixed with imports, and for export to the Congo with reportedly attrac- tive rates of return to farmers. In 1969/70, Chad produced some 600 tons of gum arabic, mainly in the Abeche region. In 1967/68, output was over 1,300 tons. Poor weather and the security situation account for the decline. Plans exist to expand output under a plantation system when security condi- tions permit. In the past, most attempts at rural modernization have not produced satisfactory results, mainly because they did not generate sufficient econo- mic incentives for the farmers. For example, lack of supplies led to the failure of a major groundnut project in the Ouaddai, which included an un- economical oil mill financed by the Republic of China. Fishermen and market gardeners, on the other hand, have greatly increased their output and adopted modern means of production in response to market demands, without massive in- jections of public money and foreign technical assistance. Fish production is estimated at 110,000 tons, of which 40 percent is smoked or dried. Some 15r000 tons of smoked and dried fish are exported to neighboring countries. This contrasts with the situation concerning the production and dis- tribution of millet and sorghum. The market for millet is fragmented and dis- organized. The small merchants who dominate the trade give credit on unfavor- able terms to farmers to purchase necessities during the year. At the time of harvest, farmers receive extremely low prices, from CFAF5 per kilo in good crop years to CFAF30 in bad. On the other hand, the consumer price in N'Djamena ranges from CFAF20 to CFAF80 per kilo. As producing zones are relatively isolated by lack of transport and communication, there are wide disparities between grain prices in different regions. Official efforts to improve the position have been inadequate. The Fonds de Developpement et d'Action Rurale (FDAR) has financed a limited program of silo building in the prefectures, but the stocks controlled by this program are too small to have a general stabilizing effect on prices. The grain stabilization department of the FDAR assisted by the World Food Program has had limited success in raising returns to producers in the few areas in which it has been able to buy grain.  - 29 - Public agencies should make a much larger effort to increase local storage stocks and capacity, in order to raise the average producer prices, with a guaranteed and effective minimum, thereby reducing the exorbitant trade margin and giving consumers the benefit of lower prices. In order to build up stocks initially at key points, output would have to be raised some- what in excess of the population growth rate. With higher output, increased producer prices and the assurance of the availability of cereals at reason- able prices throughout the year, farmers would be more willing to grow more cotton for the market, as they would have less risk of an inadequate food supply. Similarly, consumption of grain would increase once the sharp sea- sonality of supply and prices were reduced. Under the incentives provided by such a program, farmers would also be willing to use improved inputs and agricultural implements to raise productivity. Since cereals and vegetables have to be grown in rotation with cotton, total farmer income would be raised by such a program. At this stage it is not clear whether a major input of technical assistance, farm implements, fertilizers, or insecticides would be econo- mically justified for cereal production, particularly in view of the poor results of past efforts, even in the agriculturally favored south. P~ce may be an exception--small-scale production with modern inputs in the Mandoul area has had favorable results. Consideration might be given to making im- proved seeds available and letting income incentives bring about a demand for improved inputs. As 85 percent of the cotton area is farmed by traditional methods and accounts for the bulk of output, a program involving a better combina- tion of incentives coupled with selected improvements in inputs, such as in- secticides for the traditional farmer, should have high priority. Account should be taken of the relatively high returns of cotton to producers-- in view of the lack of alternatives--to government revenues and to the economy. Agriculture in this respect should be seen as an integrated eco- nomy in which attention to the production and marketing of traditional food and modern crops, such as rice, would pay off in larger outputs of the basic cash crop, cotton. In this land may not be the limiting factor, as exten- sive areas can reportedly be opened to cultivation, although the land suit- able for growing cotton under the productivity program is limited. Should it prove feasible to settle farmers on unused land, consideration should be given to introducing elementary mechanization as a means of raising per hour yields through more extensive cultivation than is now the practice. Com- munal land tenure arrangements and other social practices may constitute obstacles, although knowledge of these is incomplete.  - 30 ~ IV. DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINTS The basic object of development is to make people better off. In Chad this means that development efforts will have to concentrate on the rural masses and their access to elementary medical care, adequate nutrition, education, and training. As noted earlier, the only tenable policy is to produce more resources in the rural areas, making maximum use of the abundant labor potential there. There is, however, a clear connection between efforts to improve health, nutrition, and education, and the potential for raising rural productivity. Indeed, without the former, the potential in agriculture and livestock productivity cannot be fully realized. Efforts to raise the standard of living among the rural poor may be viewed in terms of the public and private sectors. The provision of public amenities such as schools and clinics is in part a function of public policy, which must specify how and lvhere to spend available public resources, and must spell out the standards of public services to be provided. In Chad, public sector provision of services is seriously constrained by inadequate financial resources. Accordingly, the efficiency of the tax system is a critical determinant of public social policy. Total revenues also depend significantly on the growth of national income~ which is why growth must re- main a primary objective of Chadian development policy. Finally, fiscal policy cannot concentrate only on the revenue side, since experience shows that unless restraint is imposed on nonpriority expenditures, public resources will be insufficient to accomplish basic economic and social objectives" The standard of living of the poor, to the extent it is influenced by private decisions, depends on raising per capita real incomesj prefer- ably at least partly in terms of disposable money income. Fundamentally, income growth which can benefit the masses must depend, as noted earlier, on productivity increases in livestock and agriculture. The prospects for in- dustrialization depend basically on the growth of income and demand in the rural economy. This would be true even if modern sector industrial wages approximated more closely wages in the traditional economye Even should further sharp rises in the incomes of the urban elite be accomplished, per- mitting the collection of substantial additional taxes~ the scope for redis- tribution of incomes and spending in favor of the poor would remain strictly limited, as such a policy_would have to depend on a public administration which is currently overburdened and understaffed in vital skills. By raising the productivity and hence incomes of a large number of peasants, the free market will supply the private goods which will max1.m1.ze welfare. In addition, the tax base will be broadened to increase the finan- cial resources available for public producer goods (roads, wells~ extension services, and modern inputs) and public social services (medical care and schools) • Transportation is the only sectoral constraint discussed in some detail. This is because the high cost of transportation to the outside  - 31 - world, and within the vast stretches of Chad itself, is a critical obstacle to efforts to accelerate the pace of development, which is in turn dependent on expanding foreign trade. In this respect, Chad was much less endowed at independence than other countries which inherited well-established trans- port and communications networks. The absence of roads often makes otherwise good projects unfeasible. Yet, given scarce resources it is imperative that each transport project be carefully assessed to ensure that it makes a satis- factory contribution to economic growth. A. Human Resources Chad's people should be viewed as the beneficiaries of economic development as well as the most important factor producing growth. The effects of economic development on this population may be determined from changes in the distribution as well as the level of per capita income. Chad's growth in value added in recent years has been heavily concentrated in the modern monetized sectors such as industry, commerce and public administration (see the first section of Chapter II). Yet 90 percent of the population is engaged in either nomadic and seminomadic livestock herding, or in sedentary agriculture based on cotton, millet, and a few other crops. Income dispari- ties have probably widened during the last decade, since the average returns to livestock herders (until recently) and cultivators of cotton, millet, and groundnuts have shown relatively little growth. These divergent growth trends have led to wide and growing extremes in income distribution. At the highest level are public servants and private and semipublic wage and salary earners, constituting under 5 percent of the male labor force with an average per capita income of about CFAF80,000 (see Table 6). To this essentially new urban elite should be added another large group of merchants and artisans, probably earning comparable or better incomes. Of the 1.7 million people living south of the Chari River, about one million may be roughly estimated to be producing cotton and millet. The majority of these use traditional methods and may have an estimated average per capita income equivalent to CFAF6,000, based on cotton and millet production, which is probably undervalued. This area also contains the bulk of those receiving French military pensions. The nomadic and seminomadic livestock herders and cultivators of crops in the north and northeast are, on the average, at the lowest end of the scale, although it is difficult to impute money incomes to their activities. In the richest livestock area, per capita money income several years ago was estimated at CFAF 4,800, of which 29 percent would be spent on taxes (whenever these were paid) and the balance on millet, sugar, salt, and clothing. Most herders are much poorer and under great pressure to increase cash incomes. The national accounts probably underestimate the market value of subsistence production. National per capita GDP is estimated at CFAF22,000. As noted earlier, with recent higher livestock prices herders must have improved their current cash income. Nevertheless, it appears that there has been such a strong urge to add to income, either to restore a pre- vious income level or to satisfy rising expectations, that the capital stock  - 32 - of the herds is being depleted. The question arises whether this indicates a weakening of the herders' traditional preference of keeping their stock intact. In view of Chad's dependence on livestock, this is a serious matter deserving urgent study by the government. Public Sector Distribution of Benefits In addition to private disposable income, a valid measure of the impact of development on people is the availability of such basic services as health care and education, usually provided by the public sector. The government's ability to increase these services and thus improve income dis- tribution depends on the condition of the current budget. Despite growing military outlays and rising deficits, ordinary nonmilitary outlays rose from about CFAF6.6 billion in 1964, to about CFAF10 billion in 1971, equivalent to about 13 percent of GDP. This is a considerable volume of current outlays. However, health and social welfare amount to only about 7 percent of the total. Education expenditures amounted to about 12 percent of the current budget. The distribution of health care was probably weighted towards the larger towns, where the four hospitals with heavy recurrent outlays are located rather than the forty-two clinics and 104 dispensaries in the smaller prefectures and administrative posts. Yet, in 1970, 1.4 million people were examined in mobile clinics and 600,000 consultations held. Only two areas could not be visited for security reasons. Most doctors and medical personnel are in the capital, which has three times the national average of doctors per capita; almost half, or twenty-six, of the country's doctors are in N'Djamena. The national average, however, is one doctor for 62,000 people, and half the country's districts have only one doctor for over 100,000 people. These figures indicate that curative care outside N'Djamena is virtually nonexistent. The preventive health services have produced general benefits through mass vaccinations against major diseases such as small pox, measles and tuberculosis (see Statistical Appendix, Table 10.2). Serious remaining health problems concern the incidence of malaria (particularly among infants), intestinal diseases, and venereal diseases. These will require far larger allocations of funds and people than have been available in the past. Construction of large elaborate medical facilities in central places persisted during the last plan period. Thus the new European-style Sarh hospital received almost half of fixed health investments, and will require estimated annual recurrent outlays approximating the amounts spent on all the medical installations in the rest of the country, including N'Djamena. Critical problems remain in improving health conditions through clean water and sewer disposal for. the poor in the urban centers and through maternal and child care. The lack of clinics and personnel makes it difficult to introduce basic hygiene to the rural areas. Nutritional problems vary with the geographic zones. In the north, the diet of camel meat~ tea and dates has made malnutrition an endemic disease,  - 33 - particularly fatal to 'tveaned infants. In the southern and Sahelian regions, food is more diversified, although the availability of millet and sorghum is seasonal. There is reportedly an increase in the consumption of alcohol made from millet and, thereby, in the diversion of this grain from food con- sumption. In general, medical care and to a lesser extent nutrition is in- adequate and is reflected in health standards which are well below acceptable levels, even taking account of the country's limited revenues. As a measure of rural poverty, health and nutrition are more meaningful indicators than any estimate of per capita income. And as already mentioned, in an integrated program to improve rural conditions, measures to raise output cannot be separated from either the physical condition or the education of the rural population. Education may be considered as both a consumer and producer good. At the primary level, it has both characteristics. At the more specialized and advanced levels, the training of skilled people is more directly related to the requirements for economic growth. Indeed, education and training are indispensable elements in any strategy to bring about structural improvements, particularly in the rural sector. Chad has been spending about 12 percent of its ordinary budget on education. tVhen the last plan was revised in 1968, education took the major cut; only 7.8 percent of plan investment outlays went to education and 40 percent of this was payment for foreign technical personnel and training aids, Of the amount spent on new construction, 60 percent was devoted to technical and professional training, and very little to primary education. Primary schools are underequipped and poorly staffed. Since 1960~ general enrollments in primary schools rose from 11 to 33 percent of the ten-year age group, about one-fifth of whom were girls (see Statistical Appendix, Table 10 .3) . These students vrere heavily concentrated in urban centers and the more settled areas of the south. 2/ The quality and emphasis of both primary and secondary education leaves a good deal to be desired. The primary school drop out rate is about 20 percent. Repetition of grades adds a fifth to the cost of primary educa- tion. Secondary school enrollment amounts to about 2 percent of the relevant age group~ only a small part whom are taking technical secondary courses. A good deal of foreign, mainly French assistance is concentrated in these secondary schools. In the north, where there has been traditional resist- ance to the French education system, and where the population dispersion makes it expensive to cover a large proportion of school age children, a system of Koranic schools provides a few years of rudimentary education. In 1971, the national adult literacy rate was estimated at only 7 percent. Ll Enfance, jeunesse et plan de development (Fort-Lamy; November 1971) PP• 13-61. UNICEF, Conference 1972.  - 34 - The heavy emphasis on specialized education and the high proportion of funds devoted to the relatively few who can benefit from this training, make it mandatory that this training be more closely related to an accurate measure of future skilled and professional worker requirements. There is, however, no human resource analysis which could serve as the basis for re- directing educational resources. The Moundou teachers' college, financed by the IBRD, is designed to produce a new type of teacher able to become a community leader (animateur rural) and to make the rural educational system better suited to the economic and social environment of the students, The number of teacher candidates was recently scaled down to fit the absorptive capacity of the system and to match recurrent budgetary financial availabili- ties better. An IDA-financed technical lyc@e is soon to be constructed at N'Djamena. Initial problems relating to the fields of specialization which will give graduates the best opportunities for finding jobs have now been resolved. In the past, many vocational and technical school graduates found themselves unsuited for the relatively few jobs open to them in the modern sector. Approximately 24,000 males will be entering the labor force an- nually in the next decade, of whom 13,000 will be in urban areas (see the last section of Chapter II). Wage and salary employment in the modern sec- tor can only absorb a part of these people. A commission set up to assess the implication of the new plan for employment recommends that public service requirements would amount to some 6,400 people over the decade, of which 3,900 would have post-baccalaureat training. Private sector needs are not spelled out in detail, but the demand for skilled workers is comparatively small. For example, a 1968 Unesco mission estimated that fifteen to twenty-six technicians and sixty to eighty qualified workers would be required annually. In 1971, the IBRD estimated that 200 workshops and 120 office personnel would be needed annually, including re- placement of expatriates. On the same basis some fifty to sixty technicians could be employed annually in automechanics and electrical engineering. There is a pressing need for between 150 to 180 trained agricultural extension workers. At present about 400 field agents lack adequate training. In view of the economy's modest growth prospects, and in particular the necessity to limit the expansion of government wage payments, these estimates of public employment may not be attainable. The opportunities for replacing some 2,000 foreigners in the private modern sector are good, although it may not be easy to train higher management Chadian personnel in a short time (see Statistical Appendix, Table 1.10). As pointed out, redistributing limited resources is not a meaningful development strategy for Chad. The country's basic development problem is to raise the productivity of livestock herders and cotton and millet farmers. This is partly a matter of providing adequate incentives. It is also a question of giving the people the capacity to adopt the necessary technology to raise output and incomes, and thereby make rural life more attractive. For those who will migrate to urban areas, better training will increase their adaptability and prospects. In rural areas there is a particular and  - 35 - pressing need for trained extension workers and farmers whose education is suited to bringing about rural economic change. At present, extension ser- vices consist largely of expatriates. Chad's modern economy is still dominated by expatriates. A large number of them are resident and occupy the key and many of the lower posi- tions in industry, banking, commerce, and transport. They hold as well a con- siderable number of the technical positions in government, including even secretarial posts. France has increased its number of technical assistants by 40 percent to over 660 in the last eight years, of whom half are in educa- tion. Thus, a good deal remains to be done in replacing expatriates with trained Chadians. Yet the current high per-pupil costs of specialized education, and the disproportionate amounts spent on secondary education training at the expense of primary education in important regions, indicates the need for some balance in allocating educational resources. The secondary school system is neither well adapted to Chad's devel- opnlent needs, nor does it meet the European standards to which it aspires. An intensified effort in basic primary education coupled with a redirection of emphasis towards agriculture and other useful occupations is fundamental to improving the quality of education throughout the system. School leavers at various levels can then enter economic life without further preparation, and those who go on will be able to take advantage of advanced training. In this connection, it may be necessary to study the optimum age brackets to whont primary education should be offered. Further, an emphasis on rural education may also facilitate reduction in costs compared with forntal primary education. There is no reason to adopt educational models more appropriate to other countries, particularly when this results in depriving the rural population of an opportunity to raise their standards of living. In conclusion, given the financial limitations facing Chad, no fundamental improvement of the condition of the masses could have been effected through the budget. The problem is that more could have been done with the means available in both health and education. B. Public Finances The precarious financial position of the government is a major obstacle to an expansion of development activities, as Chad can neither finance the required domestic contribution to investment cost, nor the cur- rent expenditures for operation and maintenance upon completion of infrastruc- ture projects. The continuance of essential economic and administrative services is threatened by lack of funds and growing unpaid bills may soon bring into question the creditworthiness of the country. It is urgent that policies be adopted to bring Chad's financial house in order if the essen- tial part of the current development plan (1971-80) is to be carried out.  - 36 - Public Savings Gap Chad has not been able to balance its budget since independence, as total government spending has consistently exceeded revenues. During 1967, ordinary expenditures and revenues were almost in balance. Even budgetary investment expenditures were modest, there were deficits. These deficits were covered by the annual external budget subsidy, cash reserves, and the use of public funds on deposit with the Treasury. After 967 financing took place by increasing arrears. The following table shows budgetary revenues, expenditures, investments, and government savings from 19M to 1971 on a financial year basis, including the complementary period. Table 9: CHAD BUDGET /a (In Billions of CFAF) /b 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972~rowth Rate 1964-70 %) Ordinary expenditures 6.6 7.8 9.8 10.2 11.4 12.8 14.2 14.7 15.3 13.6 Total revenues 6.6 8.0 9.6 10.2 9.5 11.4 12.8 13.0 12.0 11.7 Government savings o.o 0.2 -0.2 o.o -1.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -3.7 Government investment 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 Overall deficit -0.8 -0.5 -1.0 -0.7 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -2.6 4.3 These figures are on an accrual fiscal year basis and do not therefore correspond necessarily to the figures in Ta~le 10, which are on a cash basis. Preliminary. Source: Derived from unpublished statistics, see Statistical Appendix, Tables 5.1, 5.2 and 5.4. For details, Ministere des Finances. From 1964 through 1967, revenues and expenditures (except for investments) increased by the same rate. After 1967~ expenditures grew more rapidly than revenues, mostly because of the impact of the rebellion. Expenditures, mainly wages, salaries, and material outlays grew by an average of 11.7 percent annually between 1967 and 1970, and revenues by only 7.9 percent (Statistical Appendix, Tables 5.1 and 5.2).  - 37 - Budgetary expenditures for identifiable military and security purposes rose from some 18 percent of the total in 1968 and 1969 (actual) to some 31 percent for the 1970, 1971, and 1972 budgets. Had military ex- penditures remained at 18 percent of the total, and other categories re- mained unchanged, the 1971 fiscal year budget would have been in surplus by some CFAF1.6 billion and the generating of adequate public savings would have been much less of a problem. Total tax rev_enues_ began to level off in 19 71 . Preliminary to tal revenue figures covering the period almost to the end of the fiscal year show virtually no rise over the previous year's levels. The main reason for this stagnation was the apparent failure of taxes on imports and exports, which account for about 50 percent of total revenues, to continue to rise (there may even have been a decline in import tax yields). Following the initial loss in revenue when Chad left the Union Douaniere et Economique des Etats de !'Afrique Centrale (UDEAC) 8/ in 1969, import duties were raised. By 1970, total revenues fron import taxation and related taxes on consumption amounted to CFAF6.3 billion, compared with a yield of CFAF4.9 billion from these taxes in 1967 (including the UDEAC Solidarity Fund con- tribution). In 1971, the total yield from these taxes may not have exceeded CFAF6.4 billion (Statistical Appendix, Tables 5.3 and 5.4). A number of import taxes were increased in 1970. The import turnover tax was raised from 10 to 15 percent, and an internal import tax of 10 percent was created. In spite of these measures, total import tax yield declined in 1971 by 8 percent which gave rise to claims that the level of import taxes had become counterproductive as imports of basic consumer goods were increasingly avoiding legitimate trade channels and import taxation. A hasty fiscal reform was carried out to deal with this situation and v7ill he discussed later. It is also noteworthy that the livestock head tax, which was partly responsible for the past discontent among livestock producers, shovred continuous declines in total yields in recent years indicating that widespread evasion is the rule. Even the civil tax (minimum tax per capita) may have yielded less in 1971 than in 1969 (Statistical Appendix, Table 5.4). Personal and corporate income taxes on the other hand (amounting to about 15 percent of the total) have been grm.;ing at an average annual rate of some 16 percent. The prospects for revenue reforms are discussed in Chapter VI. The expansion in expenditures compared with the previous years' increase was halved in 1971, due to lack of funds. Ordinary expenditures rose by only 3.2 percent, and total expenditures, including government investments financed with the external subsidy, by 4 percent. This compares with average annual increase in total budget expenditures of some 12 percent between 1967 and 1970. Wages and salaries still rose by 6 percent in 1971, hut outlays ~/ The Central African Customs Union (UDEAC) is a unified free trade zone, in which members extend preferences to each other in varying degrees, and in which the less developed members are compensated as Chad was through a Solidarity Fund, because of trade diversions, and to assist them in their development. The UDEAC Treaty, between the C.A.R., Chad, Gabon, Conge {B), and Cameroon, became effective January 1st, 1966.  -· 38 - for materials and supplies stayed at the 1970 with r~s:t.ng prices this represented a cut in materials and As we have suggested, basic economic services are not of lack of fuel, parts, and supplies. Beoveen 1968 and 1971, the share wages and salaries :i.n total budget expenditures rose from The only category which rose significantly in 1 1 wa.s debt service which increased by 57 percent on the basis of debt paid but all debts owed by the goverr~ent. The Fiscal Reforms ---------- In December 1971, the President established a Fiscal Commission consisting of senior government officials and leaders of the business community, with the urgent task of recommending tax changes, particularly on import and export taxes, which were believed to be necessary to reverse the decline in trade through legitimate channels. The ob ect was to reduce contraband and to stimulate the economy through a revitalization of: normal commercial channels. The partial reforms recommended the commission in May 1972 for immediate application were accepted. A study was proposed to lay the basis for a complete revision of the fiscal system. The commission felt that another cause of growing contraband was the abuse of the tax-free importation privilege given to Chadian merchants who had gone abroad during the rebellion. A definite time limit for in goods duty free, and rigid application of duties thereafter was recommended these repatriated merchants. The commission found that the per capita head tax was being paid by only a fifth of the population. Improved and more equitable local collection efforts were recommended. The head tax on live- stock was found to have a low yield, about half the amount duei and to be a further inducement for herders to avoid traditional stock routes and animal health stations and to export live animals outside official control. Abandon- ment of the tax was recomn1ended for the 1973 budget year. A cut in internal turnover taxes was recommended for transit goods and service charges on trucks in order to cut delivered costs to consumers. The commission recommended the repeal of a number of taxes which were difficult to collect. On import taxation, the commission advised reducing the import turnover tax to its old rate of 10 percent, to abrogate the complementary tax for imported sugar and tires and to cut it for machinen;. Cuts of a third or more were recommended in fiscal import taxes for most consumer products such as matches, soap, peanut oil, shoes, cola nuts, tea, butter, salt, and tires. Complete abolition of duties and taxes were reconwended for cement, iron reinforcing bars, and wood in order to cut construction costs. Previously, the duty had served to raise the market price of Nigerian cement from CFAF17,000 per ton to CFAF29,000 per ton, under license, in order to limit competition with higher-priced French and Cameroon cement. It was estimated that these recommendations would lead to a total loss of between CFAF800 to 900 million of expected 1972 budget revenues. The commission hoped, however, that the stimulus given to commercial activity by these reforms would more than make up for this loss in 1973. An important precondition for this commercial revival was the settlement of government arrears in payments to local business.  - 39 - The con®ission also recommended better application of price controls on consumer necessities, control of wholesale margins. and wider broadcasting of applicable prices. In the critical field of transport, the commission believed that the proposed tax measures would lead to a cut in tariffs. The report noted in particular that the tariff between Maiduguri (Nigeria), and Fort-Lamy, as it still was, fixed at 8,000 francs per ton/kilometer, was exorbitant and should be reduced to 5,000 (the third section of Chapter IV contains a discussion of freight costs and their economic impact). There- port of the Fiscal Commission contains no fundamental analysis of the fiscal system, nor does it deal with the distribution effects on various income classes. It may be necessary to await the outcome of the proposed fiscal study in order to have a basis for assessing the changes required to support development objectives. Many of the 1972 tax cuts were on goods which could not easily be illegally imported (machines, etc.). Accordingly, most of the 1972 import tax cuts were reversed in the 1974 budget in order to restore budget revenues. The significant increase in the overall budgetary deficit after 1968 was financed in part by increasing bilateral aid budgetary subsidies. In 1971, CFAF2,150 million was received on a cash basis against the estimated CFAF3,378 million cash deficit for that year (Table 10}. In 1971, the budget (Loi de Finance) was fixed at CFAF13.4 billion and was later increased to CFAF14.3 billion. For the first time, a contin- gency budget (Loi Programme) of CFAF1.9 billion was set up, in addition to the regular budget, for capital spending and loans. Payments could only be made against the availability of corresponding receipts. Treasury figures show that ordinary expenditures for the financial year 1971 amounted to CFAF14.6 billion and investment outlays to CFAF900 million (Statistical Appendix, Table 5.1). By 1968, almost all deposits of public agencies with the Treasury resources (deposits of pension funds, the cotton stabilization fund and road maintenance fund) had been used up. The Treasury increased its net borrowings from the Central Bank through 1970, but was required to reduce its borrowings from this source in 1971 (see the fourth section of Chapter II). Because of lack of financing, the government did not pay its bills and arrears increased. These rose to about CFAF3 billion by the end of 1971 and to CFAF5.4 billion by the end of 1972 (Statistical Appendix, Table 5.5). The following table shows the budget, after adjustments to a calendar year cash basis, and how it was financed.  ~ 40 - FINANCING THE BUDGETARY DEFICIT Calendar Year Cash Basis) (In Millions of CFAF) "' .. ~.- -~ .. ~o-~"-~_...,.,~_,.,_~.----------,__.~~··-"-',_",.,...,..,.,.~----""'·--.~-· 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972 Mission Budget Estimates ·-~---·-.,n.-- <»>·~~.--~_, ____ .,.._ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~--- 11 ' 90 13~ 15~710 16,398 13,228 16,600 1() ~ v:;:; 3 10,931 13. 4 13,020 13,228 12,600 116 -3,378 -4,000 530 300 1,600 2' 150 1,500 222 258 27 400 78 1,182 576 1,170 2,400 250 6 cash balances -·59 14 -112 -107 '-LA'"-Hl-'·"""' ~ other 626 852 -211 138 -300 liabilities Source~ Derived from tables, Le Tresor. end of 197 , the Treasury balance sheet shm.red accumulated CFAF6,8 billion. Arrears to domestic and foreign , amounted to CFAF3 billion. The balance was owed (CFAF1 billion), to other public agencies (CFAF1 .8 (CFAF0.9 billion) and to the Central Bank Appendix, Table 5.6). By the end of 1972, amounted to CFAF5.4 billion (and rose by CFAF400 million 1973). A further CFAF1.2 billion was owed to creditors by ministries outside the official budget. arrears at the end of 1972 included CFAF1.2 billion owed to the French system~ CFJ\.Y800 mi.llion to the electricity company, CFAF1 ,050 mil- airlines, and substantial sums to oil companies. other taxes owed business firms in Chad--who may have of amounts owed them by the govern- involved particularly difficult financing problems for Loi de Finance proposed an austerity budget balanced CFAF13. 2 bi1lion expenditures compared with CFAF14.3 billion in the  - 41 - amended 1971 budget (Table 9 shovls the 1971 actual budget on a fiscal year basis, and Table 10 shows the cash outcome). The specified ...;;;.;;~~~~~;;;,.,;;;.;;;. cuts of 33 percent in expenditures for materials compared with 1971, and further prohibited any missions abroad 1972 except in The number of the 19 levcl, al- though provision was made for students, total expenditures for personnel were put at 5"5 pro- visions, although no rise is shown over actual 19 As 971 actual exceeded cast was highly nc. Allocation for 21 and transferred to the The 1972 budget reflected the acute state of government Cuts in materials and supplies to affect the functioning of government services, notably in livestock and agriculture. The cuts proposed in the 1972 budget would further reduce their effectiveness. The 1972 budge effect, is well below minimum needs for current in many A special so-called "investment was established, amounting to CFAF1.5 billion. This would be used to cover as a first priority expendi- tures amounting to CFAF1 billion, for Chad~s share of on a number of FAC and FED proj of current debt of the materials and supplies cut fron1 the regular budget. A second-priority list of expenditures vJaS for some CFAFSOO million. The special budget became effecti~e when French aid of CFAF1.5 billion was reportedly made available to finance it in Hay, and tvas deposited in the As a condition for this aj_d, the financing of individual items in the was made ect to French The release of a ture list Has postponed until after t, the tight Treasury cash tion. The mission estimates that total spending (including debt service) amounted to CFAF16.6 billion in 1972, as coopared to budget estimates of 3.2 billion, even assuming continued underfinancing of current spending for materials and supplies and a successful effort to restrain personnel outlays. These figures include current outlays paid from the external budget subsidy. The total spending estimate of CFAP16 .6 billion includes Chad's contribu- tion to all foreign-financed projects, but no provision for payn1ent of ar- rears. The mission's estimate of revenues is based on preliminary Treasury cash figuress and includes an estimated CFAF750 million loss in 1972 receipts (against CFAFS00-900 million estimated by the Fiscal Commission) due to the fiscal reform. Further, the volume of imports evading import taxation con- tinued to rise. Preliminary indications are that the 1972 loss receipts of following the fiscal reform were even greater than estimated& It is likely that budget revenue forecasts were optimistic for such items as the internal consumption tax (Statistical Appendix, Table 5.4), and export taxes. A cash deficit of some CFAF4.0 billion may be estimated for 1972. It was financed mainly by the CFAF1.5 external budget subsidy and the rise in arrears. The deficit for 1973 is provisionally estimated at CFAF4 billion, although no budget was available at the time this analysis was done.  -- 42 - C. The Critical Role of Transport Chad is a land-locked country with major urban and economic centers between 1,700 and 3,000 kilometers from the nearest ocean port. Thus, trans- portation plays a critical role in the economy~ and the lack of adequate transport infrastructure constitutes a major obstacle to development. Inter- national trade is dependent on the use of long external routes and various transport modes. The resulting high transport cost inflates the domestic prices of imported inputs and consumption goods, and threatens to hamper the development of exports. The impact of transport costs on the economy is most evident in the following examples: transport costs represented 56 percent of the domestic price of fertilizers in 1971/72~ as compared to 44 percent in 1967/68, and on the average about 15 percent of the f.o.b. price of cotton lint. With the expected decline in the international market price of cotton lint and the limited possibilities of increased productivity in the short run~ it appears that savings in transport costs are required if cotton production is to pro- ceed without price support or a reduction in the producer price. The impact of transport costs is also notable for construction materials, particularly cement; transport costs from Douala to NwDjamena are about CFAF21,000 for a metric ton of cement priced at CFAF6~700 to CFAF7~000 in Douala. The International Routes The country relies on four major transport routes to the sea~ and pursues a policy of dependence on no single route. These routes are the Trans-Equatorial rail, river and road system from Pointe Noire (Congo) through Bangui (C.A.R.) to southern Chad; the Trans-Cameroon from Douala to Ng:otoundere~ from where it connects by a road system still under construction to Moundou~ Bangor and N'Djamena; and finally~ the Nigerian routes, the main one of which runs from Nigeria's sea port cities by rail to Maiduguri~ and then by road to N'Djamena, and the secondary Nigerian route over the seasonally navigable Benoue River through northern Cameroon by road to the cotton zones in southern Chad. Freight traffic on these routes are summarized in Table 8.2 of the Statistical Appendix, based on censuses carried out in 1963 and 1970 by the French consultants Bureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipements duOutre~Mer (BCEOM) for the Ministry of Public WorksG The Trans-Equatorial Rout~. This route is still Chad~s most im- portant access to the sea. It consists of the Congo-Ocean railway (515 kilometers) from the port of Pointe Noire to Brazzaville, 1,300 kilometers of waterways from Brazzaville to Bangui (C.A.R.), and of two alternative roads within Chad. The total distance from Pointe Noire to N'Djamena is 3~275 kilometers via Sarh, and 2~950 kilometers via Bongor. This route is used mostly for cotton exports and general merchandise imports. ·In 1970, it car- ried a little over 47 percent of Chad's international freight traffic 9 con- sisting of 40 percent of the imports and 63 percent of the expcn:ts.  - 43 - Despite low railway and rlver transport tariffs, transport costs are high, particularly for N'Djamena and northern Chad, due to length, road transport and trans-shipments. Another major disadvantage is the limited capaci the Congolese railway offers to Chad's traffic in the downstream direction. Partly for this reason, a considerable share of the traffic has been diverted to the Trans-Cameroon and Nigerian routes. Further shifts are expected with the improvement of these routes and despite the large investments proposed and underway in Congo. The Trans-Cameroon Route. The present route consists of the Trans- Cameroon raihvay (910 kilometers) from the port of Douala to Belabo, a very good road (585 kilometers) from Belabo to Garoua (Cameroon) from where it reaches N'Djamena via Maroua (580 kilometers) and Moundou (405 kilometers). The Cameroon section of the Garoua-Moundou road is paved and passable all year round. Upgrading and improvements of the Garoua-Maroua road are under- way. The Trans-Cameroon route offers several advantages to traffic from Cnad. It is the shortest route to the sea, the railroad tariffs were reduced after the extension of the Trans-Cameroon railway to Belabo, and the service is faster than river transport on the Trans-Equatorial and Benoue routes. Yet, although traffic volume increased rapidly up to 1970, due largely to the closing of the Benoue route during the Nigerian civil war, the Trans-Cameroon route carries less than one-fifth of Chad's inter- national traffic flows. The main drawbacks of the Trans-Cameroon are: the use of long and poor quality roads, uneconomic trans-shipments which inflate transport costs except for southwestern Chad, and capacity limitations on the Douala port and Douala-Yaounde railway section. The extension (underway) of the railway from Belabo to Ngaoundere (scheduled for completion by January 1974) and the construction of a proposed paved road between Ngaoundere and Moundou, augur for considerable savings in transport costs. The Cameroon Government is also actively seeking external aid for the removal of the re- maining capacity constraints. The Nigerian Routes. These consist of two different railroad itineraries: Lagos-Maiduguri (1.790 kilometers) and Port Harcourt-Maiduguri (1»455 kilometers); the common section, Maiduguri-N'Djamena is a 250 kilometer road. Although the Nigerian section of this road is paved, the Cameroon section is poorly maintained and subject to interruptions during the rainy season because of floodings. The crossing of the Chari River by ferry boat at N'Djamena constitute the other drawback for these routes. The major advantage of the Nigerian routes is the considerable capacity it offers for Chad's imports. In the westward direction, there is limited capacity for Chad traffic, as groundnut output from northern Nigeria is given priority. Although nds does not constitute a problem,  - 44 - as very few exports originate from N'Djamena and northern Chad, ~/ the im- balance between export and import flows results in a very low load factor on the road section. The small load factor, combined with the use of small capacity trucks (average seven tons), the length and the trans-shipments between various modes of transport, result in high costs, particularly for general merchandise. Thus the Nigerian routes are used essentially for the import of petroleum products for N'Djamena and northern Chad. The Benoue Route. This is a co~bination of river transport (1,590 kilometers) from Burutu (Nigeria) to Garoua (Cameroon), and road transport from Garoua to NQDjamena (580 kilometers), or to Moundou (405 kilometers). The use of this route is hampered by the fact that the Benoue River is navig- able only during two to three months, because of the low water level for the rest of the year. The poor quality of the road connections from Garoua has been mentioned. These two considerations necessitate the piling-up of large quantities of stocks at Ga~oua for long periods, and the road transport costs almost prohibit the use of the Benoue route for goods destined for N'Djamena and northern Chad. It is essentially used for the export of cotton and cotton by-products. Other Routes. Tne Soudanese route consists of a 2,450 kilometer railway from Port Sudan to Zalingei, and a 200 kilometer road from Zalingei to Abeche, This route could eventually become important for the Ouaddai region. The Lybian route is over 3,000 likometers long to N'Djamena, and thus can only be used for northern Chad. Transport costs on the main external routes are shown in Tables 8.4 and 8.5 of the Statistical Appendix. The costs of transportation for cotton lint exports from Moundou in 1971 are summarized in the following table. It is noteworthy that the cost of road transport, which is largely the monopoly of the Chadian trucking industry, represents up to 70 percent of the total. Reloading and transit are the second largest cost item. Table 11: TRANSPORT COSTS /a FOR COTTON LINT EXPORTS IN 1971, BY MAIN-INTERNATIONAL ROUTES Trans- Trans- Equatorial Cameroon Nigerian Benou~ Route Route Routes Route Road transport 9,560 16,909 11,805 7,245 Railroad transport 1,875 3,465 Reloading and transit 2,405 3,702 } 15:394 } River transport 1,946 12,218 } Total 15,786 24,076 27,199 19,463 /a Excluding insurance and port fees. Source: Statistical Appendix, Table 8.5. 9! The main export is cattle, which is brought to Nigeria on the hoof.  - 45 - Chadvs road system consists of some 20,000 kilometers of tracks, and 11,000 kilometers of classified roads concentrated in the southern regions. 1972/73, the maintenance program of the Ministry of Public Works covered only 4,200 kilometers; local governments are responsible for road in their municipalities, including secondary roads. River transport plays only a secondary role in Chad. Navigability on the Chari and Logone Rivers is limited to a few months annually during the season, and when most roads are flooded. As a result of irregular rainfall, domestic river transport is expensive and unreliable. Except for the N 'Djam.ena international airport 10/ which has experi- enced fast traffic growth in recent years because ; f its importance as a transit air transport is still at an early stage of development. other major airports are Sarh, Moundou, Bangor and Abeche. Maintenance and operation of the N'Djamena and Sarh airports is assured by the Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique et en Madagascar (ASECNA), a French-managed multinational organization. ASECNA also operates the most secondary airports~ while maintenance is entrusted to the Civil of the Ministry of Public Works. Estimates of interior freight traffic, shown in Table 8.3 of the Statistical Appendix, indicate that this traffic is dominated by the transport of cotton seed from the production areas to the ginning centers. Thus, freight is concentrated in the southwestern region and along the N'Djamena- Moundou-Sarh road system. Freight traffic between the northern and southern is still limited, as cattle is exported on the hoof. Public Investments Because of its importance to the economy, transport ranks high in investments, second only to agriculture. Chad's basic transport are: (i) to keep open several access routes to the sea, and (2) to develop an all-weather domestic transport infrastructure which would stimulate production and exports, and which would link the different ethnic groups. During the 1966-70 Development Plan period, public investments in transport infrastructure amounted to CFAF6.1 billion, or 23.2 percent of total public outlays. Over nine-tenths of these investments were for roads, par- ticularly the N~Djamena to Sarh and Moundou to Sarh routes. Although there was no cut in transport costs, these investments have improved the 1Q/ The N'Djamena airport handles more freight than any other airport in central and western Africa$ reliability of transport services in the south and southwest, which were previously impassable during the rainy season. However, it must be pointed out that because of bad design and poor engineering, certain of these invest- ments such as the road between N'Djamena and Guelendeng and the cotton feeder road bridges are already in very poor condition and require extensive re- pairs and reinforcement. The breakdown of these investments by transport modes is summarized in the following table: Table 12: PUBLIC INVESTMENTS IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE, 1966-70 (In Millions of CFAF) Original Revised Realized· Provisions Provisions Investments Rail transport 485 7 14 Road transport 12, 5,962 5,529 River transport 538 6 5 Air transport 879 3 534 Total 14~454 6,288 6,082 Source: Ministere du Planet des Aides Exterieures. Investments in rail transport consisted of geographical studies of the previously proposed extension of the Trans-Cameroon railway to southern Chad. Similarly the only investment in river transport was for a preliminary study of the improvement of waterways between N'Djamena and Bol. About three-fourths of the public investments in air transport were for the N'Djamena international airport. The concentration of public investments in road transport on the N'Djamena-Sarh and Moundou-Sarh axes (64 percent of the total) is justified by the high volume of traffic on these roads. The low level of traffic in the rest of the country does not justify large investments in road infrastruc- ture at the present time. The Second Development Plan for 1971 to 1980 (see the second sec- tion of Chapter V) will continue to concentrate on road transport infrastruc- ture, for which the high-priority investments include: domestically, the further improvement and paving of main roads, the construction of a paved road from Djermaya to Djimtilo and the improvement of cotton feeder roads; externally, the construction of an all-weather paved road from Ngaoundere to Moundou. construction of a over Chari River at N'Djamena, and the improvement and paving of the road between N'Djamena and Maiduguri. For the next five years, the most urgent investments and the ones most likely to be undertaken are the improvement in cotton feeder roads, continued im- provement of the main roads, the construction the Ngaoundere-MOundou road and the Chari River bridge. appears to be no economic justification  - 47 - for the Djermaya-Djimtilo road in the near future and, in fact. an all-water link between N'Djamena and Bol may prove to be more economical. Agreement has reportedly been reached with Cameroon on the location of the Chari bridge. Cameroon's position on paving its section of road between Maiduguri and N'Djamena is not known. The final engineering study of the Ngaoundere-Moundou road is ex- pected at the end 1973, and the construction of this road could be com- pleted by the end 19 , i.e., after the extension of the Cameroon railway to Ngaoundere. Because of the shorter distance and the predicted lower tariffs on the railway, there should be considerable savings in transport costs. Preliminary traffic forecasts by consultants and Chad officials indicate that the Trans-Cameroon route will carry about 100,000 tons of Chad's imports and exports, the latter mostly cotton lint, once the Ngaound~re-Moundou road is open. Besides the investments in transport infrastructure, major efforts are also required for the improvement of the transport industry and, in particular, the trucking sector. Indeed there are indications that the present high road costs are due to a large extent to the monopo- listic structure of this industry. The present government policyt however, is for a complete monopoly by the private cooperative of transporters. Coop~rative des Tchadiens (CTT) in a few years. This objective was being achieved a system of freight allocation between the CTT and the other private transport company, Unitchadienne, which caused the latter to cease operations. While the mission supports the government's desire to see more Chadian citizer~ in the transport industry~ the method of freight allocation is probably not in the best interest of the economy; capacity limitation is a more economical method, as it requires both companies to improve their and to minimize their costs. Furthermore, complete monopoly by the CTT can only result in higher transport costs; it is P.stimat~d that costs on the road between Maiduguri and N'Djamena, where CTT already has almost complete monopoly, can be reduced by as much as 50 operational efficiency and the use of larger vehicles. of coordination among carriers, transport intermediaries and customers. accentuated by the imbalance in Chad's traffic between exports and imports, has always kept the load factor for road transport down to about 50 percent, This means higher operating costs per traffic unit and higher tariffs. Thus, Unitchadienne, COTONTCHAD, and the transport intermediaries have suggested the establishment of a "freight bureau" to coordinate opera- tions to achieve a higher load factor on the different routest and to pay the carriers on the basis of the distance covered rather than the weight carried. The Ministry of had not expressed its opinion of this proposal at the time of The CTT is totally opposed to the idea as it may mean the end of treatment it now receives. More fundamentally, given to establishing competetive conditions in transport to more efficient use of capacity and to lower rates.  The economic soundness of the present ~~~~~~~ reviewed. In 1972, a rise in tariffs cotton a 15 percent rise in for cotton lint transport were yet~ its own and rented trucks, COTONTCRAD carried 30,000 tons of cotton seed at an average cost CFAF40 per ton/kilometer, as compared to the official of per ton/kilometer. In March 1972 tariffs for other products were raised an average of 30 percent~ supposedly justified increased operating costs. increases about the same size are for next two years. The economic tification these increases is doubt- fult at least until detailed studies been made. It also appears that a system based on ton/kilometers, combined wit.h the abandon- ment of the present system of allocation~ can stimulate greater ficien.cy in road river, air, and is not a problem; and its development prospects are limited, and air transport handles almost exclusively meat exports and high value imports. Domestically, however, air transport offers great potential for the economy. low levels of now and foreseen for the future in certain regions, mostly north and east of the Chari River, do not justify investments in land transport these areas. Air transport appears to be the only alternative available to insure the flow of and services to these re- gions. Unfortunatelyw investments in air transport continue to concentrate on the N'Djamena while the infrastructure the secondary airports deteriorated. needed improvements in these areas are essen- tially the upgrading to all-weather standards and extension runwayst and the provision of aeronautical equipment. These investments would enable larger aircraft to land would increase reliabili and security of domestic air The Minis of Transport has had responsibility transport policy and coordination since December 1971. However, this ministry is new, its organization strenthening, it lacks the personnel adminis- tration, data • economic studies, and research. This situation hampers the development a coordinated and efficient transport policy. In summary~ the contribution such investment can make to over- coming development stacles will depend first on the extent to which economic priorities are respected in allocation , and second whether the government can adopt a policy framework and pricing structure which will enable maximum national economic returns to be obtained from the transporta- tion system. Under conditions, transportation merits stress it has received and will in the allocation of Chad's domestic investment re- sources and foreign  - 49- V. PLANNING AND GROWTH PROSPECTS A. The First Development Plan, 1966-70 Chad's First Development Plan (1966-70) called total invest- ments of .0 billion. In July 1968 it was revised downwards to CFAF .2 billion in the light of foreign aid disbursements and invest- ments which were lower than expected. The major objectives in versions were: (a) to increase and diversify production by the introduction of modern techniques and implements in agriculture, an extensive animal health campaign, the provision of permanent watering and grazing facilities in livestock, and the establishment of processing industries; (b) to improve and expand Chad transport and infrastructure; and (c) to improve and the general and specialized education systems to the present and future manpower needs of the economy. A characteristic of the First Development Plan is of expenditure on other than capital equipment. It is outlays amounted to only CFAF18.3 billion. 11/ Related amounted to some billion. The remainder~ about the total~ repres personnel, transport, and maintenance Statistical Appendix~ Table 10.6 gives the financing of the investments by sector~ source, and of external resource. Public and private investment resources amounted to 19 percent and 18 percent of total respectively. Almost two-thirds of total investments were financed by external resources, mostly FED (26 percent) and FAC (20 percent). External public borrowings amounted to only CFAF 1.4 billion or 5.5 percent of total borrowing (Statistical Appendix, Table 10.5). Investment outlays in the original and revised plan, as as cne actual investment outlays reflect the plan's stated objectives tatisti- cal Appendix, Table 10.4). Almost half the CFAF26.2 billion in actual out- lays went to the productive sectors. Investments in transport infrastructure were CFAF6.1 billion, or 23.2 percent of the total, whereas , health, social welfare received CFAF3.8 billion, 15 percent of total outlays. Statistical , Table 10 summarizes the allocation of investments by sectors. While actual outlays appear to match revised provisions~ these cannot be compared for cert~in sectors because of large between allocation plan provisions for the various projectse Thus, for instance, cost overruns for the roads N'Djamena and 1!1 CFAF1.7 billion for the purchase of fertilizers and insecticides cotton productivity program.  may the roads. The .3 truct:ure (CFAF In the transport, and human plan were discussed. prospects for meat returns too low to were the factory cost less than the to a lack substantial share incentives, the execution disproportionate sums were training a few, too education were concentrated in 1s no he.alth care for the A s the central and the local governments~ is ins were largely towards criteria, such as CFAF1.2 in domest:l.c on urban development, including t:he cot"!struction o.f 300 middle-class houses~ end urban electrification, as well as CFAF800 million or more allocated for indust:ey. The Sahr abattoir and with:f.n the budgeted CFAF765 gov~ ernment, but because has never ~ua~d oot adequate returns. ticipation A further was invested i11 for educt::aticm.  the government accentuated the current budget and a amount grant aid to current financing. Midway , targets had to be cut in half in order to keep within resources. Even had funds been available it is doubtful whether economy and its institutions would have been able to absorb planned investments. The problems of execution were compounded by lack of continuity coordination in the key government services, which made the execution of ects and contributed to the underfinancing of key government current In plan , growth in the primary productive sectors was law, and this is the main reason why the standard of for the mass of population was not improved. Most of the increases in value added occurred in the and activities, which are heavily concentrated in urban centers and dominated in both the and public As consequence income distribution patterns widenede At the same time, progress was made in increasing absorptive in the key have established the basis for an expanded development In particular, there was no improvement in know- about the and conditions prevailing 's traditional societies nor about the processes by which be B. The Ten-Year Development Plan was 1971 and the rise in livestock ~ the revised to the mission in plan was a UNDP-FAC-financed team in the Planning Minis , which It is an attempt to set objectives for Chadian and to formulate basic economic policies and suggest cited goals. The planners considered stress on than a catalogue of ects, the depend mainly on the availabili. external resources. In early 1973, the National Assembly rejected the plan, and revisions are underwayJ not of its main objectives. The of the plan is to more than double national decade, pursuing a broad six-count These foreign exchange earnings from greater of and gum arabic; (b) imports by creating new productive indus- such as those for consumer manufactures, sugar processing~ ; (c) out an intensive general and program which need for foreign experts and allow more aid to be used (d) reducing transport costs, by encourag- using various external routes to the sea; ;:,ou•.;; .... ,_,-,..,........."'"'·'"-'-~ energy, and building material generating some national savings the plan of public service costs and by and  - 52 - Plan Magnitudes The prospective plan envisages investment expenditures of about CFAF121 billion from 1971 to 1980. It is predicted that an additional CFAF100 billion of investments, for transport links with neighboring countries~ will be financed outside the plan. Within the plan, CFAF109 billion of total in= vestments would be "nonspontaneous investments" in the public sector, and roughly CFAF13 billion vuspontaneous investmentsn in the private sector (see Statistical Appendix Table 10.8). Private investments in agriculture are estimated at CFAF2.7 billion, including CFAF1.3 billion in farmer investments in the cotton productivity program (the draft r~D five-year productivity program calls for CFAF3.9 bil- lion of farmer investmentsp see the second section of Chapter III)0 Private investments in the form of larger herds is estimated at CFAFS billion. These estimates exclude much of the traditional economy, about which little is known. Public investments are divided into a first-priority program of CFAFSO billion~ and a second-priority program of CFAF59 billion. Government planners regard the first-priority program as feasible in the light of recent experience. The breakdown of this first-priority program by major sectors and projects is given in text Table 13 and Statistical Appendix Table 10.9. In the first-priority program, CFAF34 billion is fixed capital investment, and CFAF16 billion nonfixed capital investment, mainly for inputs for the cotton productivity program (CFAF10 billion), livestock research and health (CFAF 2.9 billion), teacher retraining (CFAF0.9 billion), and mining research (CFAF0.5 billion). The second-priority program of public investments, totaling CFAF59 billion, would increase the proportion spent on surface transport to 47 percent, including CFAF23.5 billion for an interregional road connecting Sarh, N'Djamena, and Abeche, although no economic studies exist to justify these investments (Statistical Appendix, Table 10.7). Construction of schools at all levels would absorb another 13 percent. Another 9 percent would be allocated to mainly wheat and some cotton production in the Bol polder, and the Sategui Deressia rice project (now under consideration by the World Bank). There- mainder would be spent on livestock, wells, stockroads and markets (6 percent), interior airports (6 percent), and rural and urban utilities and other ur- banization investments (5 percent). Table 13 shows the percentage allocation of first- and second-priority public investments included in the plan.  - 53 - Table 13: PUBLIC INVESTMENT TARGETS OF SECOND PLAN 1971-80 BY PROGRAM P~ SECTORS (%) Priority I Priority II I +II Production 27.2 41.2 Agriculture, fisheries, forestry 26.2 16.7 21.1 Indus try, mining 11.6 5.3 Livestock 10.0 5.6 7.6 Public utili ties 10.0 4.9 7.2 Economic infrastructure 32.7 54.3 44.4 of which: Roads (30 .6) (46 .6) (39 .3) Air transport (-) cs.s) ( 3.1) Social infrastructure 9.5 14.8 12.4 of which: Education (50 1) ( 12 .8) (9. 3) Health (4. 1) (-) (1 .9) Administration 3.7 2.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Statistical Appendix, Table 10.7. The additional CFAF100 billion of investments outside the plan in- clude the new airport at N'Djamena, costing an estimated CFAF14 billion, which is justified in the plan as a fundamental link with the outside world. This investment also includes the roads to Ngaoundere, Tripoli and the Sudan. cpad will be unable to meet their financing, which is left to undefined ex- ternal sources.  - 54 - Table 14: PLAN: VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS (In Billions CFAF) Value Added Annual Rate of- 1968 1980 Increases Growth (1968-80) Agriculture 18.0 29.4 11.4 4.2 Livestock 8.4 10.4 2.0 1.8 Fishing 2.5 3.9 1.4 3.8 Food industry 1.9 6.1 4.2 10.2 Textile industry 1.9 4.6 2.7 7.6 Buildings and public works 0.7 1.7 1.0 7.7 Transport and communications 1.7 3.4 1•7 6.0 Commerce 9.3 22.9 13.6 7.8 Banking and insurance 0.8 1.9 1.1 7.5 Public administration 7.1 12.7 5.0 4.3 Import duties 3.7 7.3 3.6 5.8 Other 3.1 8.9 5 GDP 113.2 Source: Projet pour un plan de developpement economique, decennie 1971-80, Haut Commissaire charge du plan et des aides exterieures, Fort-Lamy~ July 1971, pp.II-146-147, and IBRD computations. The Relevance of the Macroeconomic Project!~~ The plan projects a 5.5 percent average annual growth rate of GDP: 7.2 percent in the monetized and 1.6 percent in the nonmonetized sectors of the economy. The projection is based on an average ratio of investment to GDP of 11.5 percent and a 1.6 incremental monetized capital-output ratio. The mission'B alternative, more conservative, ections for the main economic parameters are discussed in the fourth section of Chapter v. The plan projects a CFAF53.5 billion rise in value added to CFAF113 billion between 1968 and 1980 in constant prices. The main increases are shown in Table 14. The pattern of growth projected for the decade, even if achieved, will have only a modest effect on the productivity and standard of living of the bulk of rural population, and will not change the structure of the economy. For example, only 27 percent of the projected rise in value added would be in the primary sector. Much of this would result from the cotton productivity program, which is projected to expand from 44,000 hectares in 1968 to 120,000 in 1980• producing an average 1,100 kilograms per hectare of cotton seed. The mission's estimate is for a more reasonable average of output of 900 kilograms per hectare in the productivity program by the end of the decade, given the difficulties analyzed in the second section of Chapter III, and assuming a new productivity program is carried out. Part of the increase in agricultural output is scheduled for the Bol polder, where cotton and wheat is scheduled to be cultivated on 16,500 hectares. This estimate is considered highly optimistic, as project preparation currently concerns only some 3,500 hectares. Further, the projection includes sugar cane and manu- factured sugar output, the economic feasibility of which has not been  - 55 - demonstrated, although the recent rise in sugar prices has improved prospects for this ect. The biggest increase in value added is in commerce, which reflects the rise in the commercialized share of primary and secondary output from 45 percent to percent of GDP. Of course, the national accounts estimates do not calculate value added in the traditional sector accurately. Only quantifiable estimates of modern sector activities have been measured. These affect a relatively small number people, largely concentrated in the capital and in towns in the south. Aside the probable overestimates of output increases in agri- culture which are noted above, it may be questionable to devote so much of the plan analysis to estimated capital output ratios and sectoral value added changesB which have relatively little to do with the real structure of the economy or the processes through which change can occur. As will be shown, even the total size of projected public invest- ments may be questioned. The amounts projected in the first-priority program are within reason. It is highly doubtful, however, that financial resources will be found for the second-priority program. Accordingly, the projections made on the basis full public investment program cannot be relevant as a guide to the future. An analysis of the allocation of investments under the first-priority program reveals departures from the stated goals as summarized on page S2 (Statis Appendix, Table 10.7). Only 10 percent is allocated to the key livestock sector~ on the grounds that the cost benefit ratio of public in- vestments in this sector is unfavorable, in view of the high cost of modern technology and the low price of cattle on traditional markets. In the re- vised plan, only CFAF1.5 billion was added for well-digging, despite the sharp rise in meat prices since 1969. The new cotton productivity program is allocated about percent total first-priority investments. The sugar cane and sugar production project is to receive 10 percent of investment, mainly financed by external aid. Plans for a new sugar town at Banda are to be dropped in view of the high cost of locating people there, compared with the lower incremental public costs of adding to Sarh. Public utilities~ inN~ amena, are to receive 10 percent of total first- priority investments 9 which will benefit mostly the minority wage and salary class and associated private sector in this city, while other urban centers will receive only minimal amounts. Only 5 percent is to be spent on educa- tion. Primary teacher training is given more emphasis than in the last plan, particularly through IBRD-financed teacher training college at Moundou •. and in an Unesco progr&~ to retrain existing primary teachers. The new University Chad at N' amena is included as a first priority~ but the financing required is not shown. Health receives only 4 percent~ mainly for the building two large hospitals in southern towns, which will re- sult in recurrent budgetary allocations.  Transport is percent total invest~ent~ mainly a betw-een N~Djamena and the south~ and for roads. A good part investments appear to be justified as a basis growth of economi.c ac ti vi ty 0 and by the reduction in costs o There is no allocation in the plan to of rural masses~ standards, and to incentives. to programs~ rural productivity~ essential More important, unless the vast bulk of population can be il::1volved in the process of , public revenues will remain insufficic-,;nt to prograw.s to improve the resources~ continue to abandon le rural activi- to the tatt¥ns and become or cease hoping their condition. The plan a good deal although no re- • on a national program to materials popular housing~ to create a new sector of economic which would be self~financing. Since imported 80 percent the cost of roads and of the cost of buildings" domestic production materials would have important foreign exchange and employment Research for building and madeo available However~ from existing credit institutions that is no effective demand for housing on a scale~ as the small modern sector housed or can receive housing development institutions. ~ Chad is seeking Most people, including towns, cannot and probably de not t:y t:o modern Given the low cost of labor of the lowest income class the construction the self-built mud house would seem to be a satisfactory way to mobilize unused labor and materials to needs~ measures to encourage this activlty should priority. In order to quality of would do well to examine merits of "sites in would penni t sewer services t cost to the group social squatter settlements. A system of based rights a element in to housing, The Ten~Year to policy than to projects, but is In such critical  - 57 - • virtually no analysis is w~de of the current system, of needed reforms in the control required to produce more efficient services. Similarly, no action program or are recommended, of development constraints based on recent experience proposed investments and government action. The con- to raising public savings and reform is no financial plan or program which demonstrates how current or capital costs of government programs are to financed, operational policy options are. c. ~the Planning Ministry was placed in the have strengthened the Ministry • A lack of was and agencies in formulating and out ministries operate in sectors almost in- The annual allocations of resources the on a careful ties. As a economic services such as livestock are ~ the recurrent costs of new projects are not provided conditions of budgetary stringency the is many claimants scarce resources. development projects are it is that requests for such aid priorities and the coordination has proven difficult make direct requests to aid often purposes which cannot Because of this lack of to plan, execute and control It is also difficult to deal effectively with foreign aid Chad risk not able to absorb all of the aid t~Thich available to her. The foresees the establishment of a which would be able to analyze the economic and social and suggest of investments financial The work and revising the plan would trained Chadians as be monitored with a view to improving future deci- zation would publish a which would provide the basic data and action plan and a current development staff, the plan organization It will be some time before even the main  - 58 - Needed Reforms There would be little point in suggesting planning reforms requir- ing an elaborate planning mechanism which could not be staffed. Desirable improvements would be the establishment of programming units in the technical ministries to improve project identification and supervision, and a correspond- ing central staff and study bureau in the Plan Directorate to coordinate the preparation, financing, and execution of a development program. However, in view of staff shortages, this will have to wait. Reforms will have to take place mainly with existing staff and financial meansp supplemented by care- fully selected technical assistants whose role would include aid in designing and implementing programs. Our view of what can be done is as follows: (a) The authorify of the Plan Directorate needs to be upgraded so that in fact it becomes the central coordinating agency for all projects and their financing. The Plan Directorate should be made an integral part of the decision making process in the annual budgetary exercise. This role will permit an annual development budget to be drawn up, in which financial availabilities~ both domestic ~nd foreign, are matched with development spending priorities. (b) The Plan Directorate should improve coordination of policy fo1~ulation and execution in the key sectors. Policies need to be thought out and periodical- ly reviewed in such fields as transport pricing and freight allocation, cotton and cattle taxation, grain price supports, health, and education. The best way to achieve effective coordination would be for the Plan Directorate to organize regular policy review meetings of senior civil servants who are already administering the day-to-day activities of the key ministries and public agencies. These officials could be advised on the technical options by the staff of the Plan Directorate. supplemented to the extent necessary by foreign experts. The results of these meetings would become the basis for decisions at Cabinet level. In fiscal policy, a similar, but perhaps more institutionalized arrangement would be desirable to follow up the work of the Fiscal Commission (see the second section of Chapter IV). (c) The Plan Directorate urgently needs to review projects proposed for imple- utentation within the next few years, in order to ldentl.Iy these with unfavor- able cost-benefit ratios. and to schedule other projects 9 particularly those in rural zones, according to development priorities. The recurrent costs of ongoing and proposed projects need to be identified as an essential element in projecting the minimum domestic and foreign financial resources needed in the next few years. In this connection Chad wants foreign technical assist- ants to become part of the Directorate's staff and concentrate on the prac- tical near-term problem of development programming, in contrast to having independent foreign teams take over planning. (d) !h~ Plan Directorate should undertake basic socio-economic studies, which are a precondition to designing effective development policies and programs for the masses. In this area, Chad will need for a long time the assistance of foreign experts. The analytical framework produced should greatly increase Chad's control of its own development strategy and future. Such studies should encompass house= hold consumption surveys, by major region, income and employment studies, and the factors such as the availability of public services which influence rural labor migration decisions. Far more knowledge is needed of the productive  - 59- options, including appropriate technologies, open to farmers, and the market- ing distribution and constitutional reform necessary to induce them to respond. The needs of the transport sector should be carefully assessed with a view to making a maximum contribution to raising rural incomes. D. Growth Prospects The growth prospects for 1971 to 1978 appear slightly less favorable than those of recent years. The mission projects an annual growth rate of 4 percent in real terms (constant 1971 prices) as compared to the estimated 5 percent for 1968 to 1971. No account has been taken in these estimates of the severe droughts of 1971/72 and 1972/73, as only fragmentary information and estimates are available. The impact of possible changes in Chad's terms of trade are difficult to estimate, although there is no reason to believe that a serious deterioration will take place. It is expected that cotton lint prices, recently exceptionally high, will return to normal levels in a few years, whereas meat prices will continue to rise because of growth in demand. Table 15: GDP FORECAST AND GROWTH RATES (In Billions of CFAF-Constant Prices) 1971 1975 1978 Growth CFAF % CFAF % CFAF % Rates GDP 79.8 100.0 93.7 100.0 104.6 100.0 4.0 of which: Cotton 2.3 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 7.8 Animal husbandry 12.5 15.7 13.4 14.3 14.3 13.7 1.9 Industry 6.4 8.0 8.5 9. 1 10.6 10.1 7.5 Commerce 12.4 15.5 14.7 15.7 16.3 15.6 4.0 Adm. services 10.4 13.0 12.0 12.8 13. 1 12.5 3.4 Others 35.8 44.9 41.4 44.2 46.4 44.4 3.8 Source: Statistical Appendix Table 2.2 Although the primary sector will remain the most important sector of the economy, contributing 43 percent of GDP in 1978, the major growth determinants in this period will be rapid expansion of value added by in- dustry, transport, communications, and commerce. Assuming a rise in yields and the expansion of the area under the productivity program to 100,000 - hectares in 1977/78, as compared to 41,000 hectares in 1971/72, value added by cotton seed production will increase by almost 8 percent annually. Thus, its relative share in GDP will increase from about 3 percent in 1971 to 3.7 percent in 1978. As indicated, livestock development is hampered by supply limitations, which could lead to a decline in the sector's value added. The effects current and planned investments will probably start to be felt only by 19 , annual herd growth is expected to rise from 1 .4 percent to 2 percent in the important Batha region. The longer-run potential for raising the and of livestock herds is good. Available pasture will larger herds if adequate provision is made for water. For example water can make pasture useable throughout the dry season and can bring into use more distant temporary grazing areas. Permanent water to prevent overgrazing, will permit the sustainable size of herds to be raised will lessen substantially the effect of herders~ Furtherp losses through disease can a nationwide animal health program. As noted in nutrition is not only main cause of cattle death for losses and low production. In stock roads, holding ranches to fatten cattle 1 zed and expanded processing facilities can contribute significantly to nation's returns from the livestock sector, both the total herd size~ as well as by improving the quality of animals marketed~ ected growth of value added by industry is closely related to cotton seed production, since the production of cotton lint is directly dependent on cotton seed output. However, because of the limited size of the domestic • textile production is expected to increase only moderately. Import substitution is expected to continue, particularly for food processing industries (sugar, beverages) and other mass consumption products (tobacco products~ plastic shoes, and textiles). The major planned investments will expand capacity of present industries and raise the value added of cotton by-products, i.e., cotton seed oil and cotton seed cake. Exports are expected to rise from CFAF8.5 billion in 1971 to about CFAF13.6 billion in 1978, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 7 percent. This rapid increase is the result of cotton exports which are expected to rise from CFAF5.3 in 1971 to CFAF9.6 billion in 1978. The mission also forecasts a rise about CFAFSOO million in meat exports above the 1971 of CFAF1 5 billion. forecast does not take into account the possible adverse on livestock offtake of the severe 1972/73 drought (see Statistical Appendix, 3.3). There are two reasons for the mission forecasts of average annual growth rate of only 1.1 percent for imports (see Statistical Appendix, Table 3.4). First, the 1 1 import level was abnormally high, due to the inflow foreign mili personnel and the expansion military operations. Assuming improvement of internal security, imports for military personnel should be 1975. Second~ domestic production will pro- gressively satisfy the demand of previously imported goods such as refined sugar, tobacco textiles~ shoes and beverages; this process was already apparent 1967 1969 (see Import forecasts on these are shown in Statistical Appendix, Table 3.4. It is noteworthy that the corresponding rate growth of imports for the period 1968 to 1978 is 4 6 somewhat higher than GDP growth, and considerably higher than our estimate the period 1971-78, although below 7 percent for the The projection is based on the that fiscal and other measures will be taken, which will cause  - 61 - a good part of currently unregistered trade to flow through legitimate trade channels. The rapid rise in exports and the stagnation of imports will pro- gressively reduce Chad's huge trade deficit, as evidenced by the rise in import coverage ratio from 42 percent in 1971 to 62 percent in 1978 (Statistical Appendix, Tables 3.3 and 3.4). The resource gap is expected to decline by only CFAF0.2 billion during the period, due mainly to the expected rise in the nonfactor services deficit from CFAF4.1 billion to CFAF6.9 billion. This rise in net nonfactor service payments is due to the decline in receipts arising from foreign military expenditure (CFAF1.2 billion), and the normal rise in expenditure for other services, primarily transport (CFAF1.6 billion). Gross domestic savings are expected to change from a negative CFAF2.7 billion in 1971 to a positive CFAF1.9 billion in 1978, in line with projected increases in public savings and expected private savings. The resource gap would, as noted above, only decline slightly, from CFAF8.7 billion in 1971 (adjusted) to CFAF8.1 billion in constant prices in 1978, leading to the need for a net inflow of resources by 1978 at about the current level. The following table contrasts the mission's macroeconomic forecasts with the official forecasts in the 1971-80 Development Plan (for more details see Table 2.3 of the Statistical Appendix). After gross investments and con- sumption have been estimated directly, gross savings are calculated as a residual. The projections should be regarded as indicative of the direction of change rather than precise calculations of the main economic variables. As explained in the first section of Chapter II, national accounts estimates are reliable only for the relatively small modern sector.  - 62 - Table 16: MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES (In Billions of CFAF-Constant Prices) .!21§./b 1978 1971 LA Count!',! Taraet Bank"""iStimate Current Abso- Growth Abso- Growth (Adjusted) lute Rate% lute Rate% GDP (in 1971 prices) 79.8 116.1 5.5 104.6 4.0 Imports (goods and NFS) 27.5 46.2 7.7 31.2 1.8 Exports (goods and NFS) -18.8 -30.6 7.2 22.7 2.7 Total available resources &.2 131.7 hl 113.1 3.6 Gross domes tic investment 6.0 10.2 7.9 10.4 8.2 Consumption 82.5 121.5 5.7 102.7 3.2 Total used resources 88.5 131.7 hl 113.1 .!& Gross domestic savings -2.7 -5.4 1 .9 Domestic resource surplus -8.7 -15.6 -8.5 L! Import and export data were adjusted for trend deviations due to high defense expenditures, and are therefore not comparable to the 1971 figures in Statistical Appendix, Table 2.3. /b Country targets for 1978 are derived from the 1968-80 plan growth rates, including the mission estimate of nonfactor services, as these are not includ- ed in the Chad estimates of resources.  = 63 - VI. FINANCING PROSPECTS AND AID OUTLOOK Annual investments during the government's Ten-Year Plan amount to CFAF5 billion of t-priority investments, and a maximum of CFAF10 billion. As indicated earlier. the plan does not relate recurrent and capital require- ments to availabilities of domestic and foreign financial resources. Our analysis growth prospects and absorptive capacity indicates annual public investments might rise from CFAF5 billion in 1971 to CFAF8 billion by 1978. Factors preventing more rapid expansion development opportunities relate to the lack internal security, effective coordination in central government development activities, and of trained Chadians in such sectors as cotton and livestock. A. Foreign will be required for the foreseeable future to finance most development projects, and to provide much of the technical needed to carry out projects and to man the key sectors. Currently Chad is making no contribution to the financing of public investments. In- stead, external aid was all government capital outlays and part of current expenditures (including t service). Unpaid debts have been , as this aid does not cover total spending. The precarious financial of the is a major obstacle to the expansion of development activities. ects can realistically be undertaken, unless the ws contribution to their costs can be covered by foreign budgetary aid. While foreign aid agencies may for a time make aid available on these terms~ will want their financing of recurrent costs to be limited to a reasonable period. Accordingly~ the availability of concessional aid for development will depend on Chad's progress towards making a reasonable contribution to its own development. In tm·1ard 1971 to 1978 period, this report has attempted to assess the scope for fiscal reform. In view several uncertainties, the mission's ections should be regarded as indicative of the kind of effort Chad be able to make for its own development rather than as a precise blueprint for action. The analysis of current expenditures in the second of IV concluded that urgent steps will be required to restrain growth in ty current expenditures. This should be a major objective of fiscal policy, Further cuts in development supporting current outlays, however, would make little sense as these cuts would frustrate existing pro- gramst and in fact a redirection of expenditures is urgently desired. Even though the taJc burden is already » a large part of refonn will therefore to be based on increasing receipts. for the 19 fiscal year through March 19 show no rise over receipts. Assuming further improvement in the yields of import, income turnover taxes, a rise of 5 percent yearly may be estimated tical Appendix, 5.4 for 1971 assessments recoveries. text Table the 's 1972 budget estimates).  = 64- The only fiscal reform undertaken was described above. Its short- term impact, on the basis of preliminary conservative calculations, was an estimated reduction in the 1972 budget revenues by about CFAF750 to 900 million, or from 5.5 percent to 7 percent of the total. By 1973, however, smuggling should have gone down and increased import tax yields and taxes on profits and incomes from higher levels of taxable economic activity should more than offset the 1972 decline. There are no detailed studies, however, to support this optimistic hypothesis. One reason for a more cautious view is that part of the imports for which duty reductions were approved cannot easily be smuggled, given relatively inelastic demand for each product. The only effect of the reform in such cases would be a net loss of revenue to the government. In the first decade of independence, Chad's effort to raise tax revenues were very successful. Between 1961 and 1963 and 1966 to 1968, taxes collected rose from 7.9 percent to 12 percent of the estimated GDP. Between these two periods, some 29 percent of additional income generated was channeled through the central government budget. Most of these increases were obtained through increases in tax rates and improved administration. The tax system showed little built-in elasticity. By 1970, the tax burden was 16 percent of GDP, which is high for a country with two-thirds of its value added produced in the traditional sector. Indeed, the evidence suggests that too high a share of taxes was derived from the subsistence sector. In 1969, 80 percent of company taxes collected from some two hundred firms came from five enterprises (mainly a cotton export company and import firms). The biggest enterprises, a textile factory, a sugar refinery, and a brewery, were still exempt from profit taxes under the investment code. In 1969 the profit tax represented only 1 percent of the total turnover of com- panies, while the ratio of declared company profits to turnover was only 3.8 percent in 1968. In view of the virtual monopoly position of many enter- prises in Chad, these low figures suggest widespread evasion of profits taxes. Aside from incorporated business, there are a large number of medium- and small-size firmsp including those which are foreign-owned, engaging mainly in commerce, which have no tax assessment. Indeed, many of them do not keep records and are unknown to the tax authorities. Company tax collections, while low, have been rising far more rapidly than GDP, probably because the bigger companies are no longer exempt from taxes and are highly profitable. However, there is obvious scope for further improvements in tax collection from the business community. The growing number of wage and salary earners has been a source of increased personal income tax revenues. The present income tax is de- ficient because it places too high a burden on lower incomes and not enough on middle and upper salaries, including those of expatriates. Consideration should be given to eliminating income splitting, which mainly benefits upper income levels. The staffing of tax collecting services would seem to warrant early attention even in advance of a structural fiscal reform. About 400 customs  - 65 - in 19 71 from 300 in 1968), cover some 11,000 kilometers of and collect 38 (CFAF5 billion) of government revenues 9 at a cost in about CFAF1 million. A larger number of customs officials outside the capital. The result would ly be a government revenue at a small cost. B. Projected Public Savings An average annual growth rate 4.,1 percent in total current expend- t is projected for the period 1973 to 1978. The :i.s that military and security expenditures will re- level of some CFAF4 billion annually the period, will decline from 31 percent of total expenditures in 1971 to 78" military outlays amounted to 18 total The major build-up in Chad armed In a poor country Chad with little military personnel payments are not with national billion provides part of the cur- Cnad's armed forces. In the future, con- situation should make the reduction in P and leave sufficient resources for Civilian outlays are assumed to rise annually in real terms and current material outlays by 4 percent, in to make up arrears and remain in line with the general growth rate. Maintenance expendi- tures are forecast to rise by 6 and transfers are assumed to rise 4 In vie'frl the large arrears in short- term debt~ an average annual increase of 8 percent in debt service assumed for the period. This would permit a reasonable start on exis debt and perhaps up an debt ficient resources to assure the payment of debt service. On revenue there was a serious setback in 1 72 due to side~ the the continued diversion of trade from channels~ discussed earlier, and the effects the on revenues@ , the ection has been made on the as- normal climatic conditions, and some recovery in 1973 as a base year. A growth rate to the 4 GDP is assumed internal consumption and value added and income from state Import taxes, which account expected to rise progressively 4 1971 Export taxes may rise from 4 basis of reforms discussed earlier. The provision for increased processed animals exported on company income taxes are proj  - 66 - by 10 percent and 15 percent respectively during the period. These rates are below those recorded recently and reflect the prospects for taxing currently untaxed business, mainly in commerce. On this basis, government savings (including debt service) would appear as follows for 1971, 1975 and 1978 on a financial year basis: Table 17: BUDGETARY SAVINGS (In Billions of CFAE-Constant 1971 Prices) 1971 1973 1976 1978 Growth Rate % 1973-78 Current revenues 13.0 13.5 16.5 19.3 7.4 Current expenditures (excluding investments) 14.7 15.0 16.5 18.3 4.1 of which: Debt service (0.9) (1.0) ( 1 • 2) ( 1 • 5) 8.5 Budgetary savings -1.7 -1.5 +1.0 Source: Mission projections. The critical variables in this projection are the level of current military expenditures and outlays for wages and salaries. If military out- lays remained at 31 percent of total expenditures from 1971 to 1978, the cur- rent budgetary defi.cit would be about CFAF1 billion higher than projected in 1975 and somewhat more in 1978. If total wage and salary payments, includ- ing those to the military, were to rise by 6 percent instead of the 3 percent projected, the 1978 surplus would be cut by about CFAF1 billion. C. External Finance From 1966 to 1970, foreign aid disbursements amounted to CFAF16.4 billion, of which 91 percent were grants and 9 percent loans (ma~nly from FAC, Caisse Centrale, and the European Investment Bank). FED provided 43 percent of total aid disbursements and FAC 34 percent.  - 67 - Table 18: EXTERNAL PUBLIC FINANCING, 1966-70 (In Billions of CFAF and %) Grants Loans Total % Total 14.9 1. 5 16.4 100.0 FED/EIB 6.8 0.3 7. 1 43.3 FAC /a 5.2 0.4 5.6 34.2 UNDP, FAO, ILO 1.3 1.3 7.9 IDA 0. 1 0.1 0.6 Other bilateral agencies 1.6 0.7 2.3 14.0 /a Includes external financing by French Caisse Centrale. Source: FAC. Between 1966 and 1970, total aid disbursements averaged about CFAF3.3 billion. IDA disbursements over that period were very small, amount- ing to only 0.6 percent. The table excludes substantial technical assistance by Common Market countries and international agencies, as well as direct ex- ternal budget support. In 1971~ foreign aid commitments amounted to an es- timated CFAF4.2 billion from all sources, of which 71 percent were almost equally shared by FED and FAC. There are reports that Libya and other Middle Eastern countries may make some aid to Chad available, although no information is available on the amounts and terms. Assuming improvement in fiscal performance, as outlined earlier, and no increase in budgetary military outlays, the Chadian government should be able to reduce its current deficit gradually. However, positive budgetary savings will not be possible until after 1976. Accordingly, until then foreign aid will continue to be required to finance both capital and part of current public expenditure. On this basis, we estimate that gross external public capital inflows required to finance investments and amortization would remain roughly constant at CFAF6 billion in constant prices from 1971 to 1978, and would rise to CFAF8 billion in current prices by 1978. Common Market countries are expected to remain the main sources of foreign public capital in this period. In addition, direct budgetary assistance will be needed through 1975, but on a declining scale. D. Problems of Development Financing In the immediate future Chad should improve its ability to attract and manage external assistance by making substantial progress on the following issues:  - 68 - (a) settling over CFAFS billion in mainly short-term arrears owed to foreign and domestic creditors; (b) in this connection, undertaking a credible fiscal reform program which will eventually enable Chad to balance its current budget, make a reasonable contribution to capital spending and permit current debt service obligations to be met; (c) aftar bringing its fiscal house in order by such self-help measures. arranging a satisfactory multiannual development program which is in line with development priorities, and which specifies the requirements for capital and recurrent financing from foreign and domestic sources; and {d) improving Chad's management of its own current development program, and laying the groundwork for expanding the scope of future development opportunities, in line with the country's economic and social objectives. The debt service ratio is estimated to decline to 7 percent of exports of goods an4 nonfactor services, and 8.4 percent of estimated govern- ment expenditures by 1978. It has been assumed that financing will be mainly on concessional terms, with only a modest further rise in new interest-bearing debt from such agencies as the Caisse Centrale and in suppliers' credits. Debt service on outstanding loans and suppliers' credits is estimated at 8.0 percent of 1971 exports of goods and nonfactor services. In the light of Chad's poverty and low per capita income, its modest prospects for growth of GDP and exports, external borrowing should be pre- dominantly on concessionary terms. Furthermore, even assuming good fiscal performance, Chad will have neither the free budgetary resources through the mid-seventies to enable it to pay its share of capital outlays, nor will it be able to afford .substantial new outlays for recurrent costs associated with new projects. Thus, foreign aid agencies will have to consider financ- ing a high proportion of project costs as well as, wherever possible, a por- tion of current operating costs. The government agrees that fiscal perfor- mance should be improved as recommended. Assuming this is done, financing of current operating costs could be undertaken on a declining basis.  - 69 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Population Projections and Growth Rates, 1963-80 1.,2 Fertility Rate by Age (annual number births per 1,000 women between 15 and 49 years of age) 1.3 Mortality Rates per 1,000 1.4 Life Expectancy (in years) 1.,5 Population Density per Prefecture 1.6 Birth and Death Rates by regions, 1964 1. 7 Active Male Population by main Sector of Activity, 1964 1.8 Urban Population Projections 1968, 1970 and 1980 1.9 Urban Population by Age and Sex, 1963, 1970 and 1980 1.10 Employment of Chadians and Foreigners by Occupational Group, 1967-70 in the Private Sector 1.11 Private Sector Employment by Occupational Category, 1970 1.12 Wage and Salary Employment by Occupation, 1967-70 1.13 Wage and Salary Employment by level of skills, 1967-70 2.1 GDP Estimates, 1968-71 2.2 GDP Forecast 1971, 1975, and 1978 2.3 Estimated Balance and Use of Resources 3.. 1 Composition of Imports and Exports by Product, 1967-71 3.2 Exports by Destination and Imports by Origin, 1967-71 3.3 Exports and Export Forecasts, 1968-71, 1975 and 1978 3.4 Imparts and Import Forecasts, 1968-71, 1975 and 1978 3o5 Balance of Payments, 1969-71 4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1971 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency 4.2 External Public Debt as of December 31, 1971, Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency 5.1 Budget Deficits on a Fiscal Year Basis, 1968-72 5.2 Government Expenditures (Fiscal Year) 5.3 Import Tax Yields 1966-71 and Budgetary Provisions 1971 and 1972 5.4 Government Revenues, FY68 - FY72 5.5 Budgetary Actual Financing 5.6 Treasury Balance Sheet:Financing Budgetary Operations 6.1 Slleeted Monetary and Credit Developments 6.2 Composition of Loans Granted by BDT 1969-71 7.1 Estimates of Livestock Numbers by Districts in 1971 7.2 Estimated Utilization of the Offtake from the National Herd in 1970 7.3 Recorded and Unrecorded Exports of Live Cattle by Destination - 70 - 7.4 Estimated Exports of Live Animals by Destination in 1970, and Total since 1965 7.5 Destination of Meat Exports by id1:,.. 1965-71 7.6 Producer Prices for Cattle 1.1 Meat Prices 7.8 Actual and Estimated from Livestock and Livestock Products 7.9 Development of the Livestock Service Budget, 1961-72 7.10 Production Cotton Seed and Cotton Lint 7.11 Area under the Cotton Productivity Program 7.12 Productivity Program: Breakdown of Input Costs and Financing 7.13 Productivity Program: Advance Farmers for Input Costs and Repayments 7.14 Repayment the Equipment CreditsGranted in the Cotton Producing Area as of March 1972 8.1 Transport to from Chad in 1970 8.2 Shifts in Traffic on ¥~ Routes, 1963-70 8.3 Estimates of Road Freight Trsffic, 1963-69 8.4 Breakdown of Transport Coats on Nigeria Routes, 1971 8.5 Cotton Transport Coat on P~in External Routes, 1971 8.6 Road Transport New Tariffs Effective March 16, 1972 9.1 Price Index for European Consumption at Fort Lam;y 9.2 Price Index for European Consumption at Fort Lam;y 9.3 Urban (SMIG) and Agricultural (Smag) Minimum Wage Scales, 1954-70 10.1 Regional Distribution of Medical Personnel, 1970 10.2 Medical Care, 1970 10.3 Primary Education Enrollment 1959/60 - 1969/70 10.4 Fir st. Development Plan (1966-70), Provisions and Outcome 10.5 Financing of First Development Plan (1966-70) 10.6 Financing of Actual Invest~nts by Sector, 1966-70 10.7 Investment Targets of Second Plan 1971-80 by Economic Sectors 10.8 Estimates of Public Private Investments by Economic Sectors 1971-80 10.9 First Priority Investment Program by Sectors & Projects, 1971-80  - 71 - Table 1.1: CHAD -- POPULATION ffiOJECTIONS AND GROOH RATES, 1963-80]} Sex 1963 1970 1980 Entire Country M&F/.! 3,t212 2507 :2.t6:29 2 824 4 2 50~ 2 :294 M 1,521,676 1,729,763 2,157,727 F 1,690,831 1,910,061 2,346,667 Southern Region M&F 1,494,845 1, 714,814 2,167,491 M 720,250 825,849 1,048,241 F 774,595 888,965 1,119,247 Northern Region M&F 1,717,662 1,925,010 2,336,903 M 801,426 903,914 1,109,483 F 916,236 1,021,096 1,227,420 Rate per 1,000 Persons 1968 1970 1975 1980 1985 TOTAL: Births 42.14 42 .. 76 43.14 43.19 42 .. 32 Deaths 25.20 22 .. 72 22.80 20.95 19.04 Increase 16.94 20.04 20.34 22.24 23 .. 28 SOUTH: Births 46.86 47.32 47.50 47.33 46.48 Deaths 28.25 25.25 25.18 22.85 20.50 Increase 18.61 22.07 22.32 24.48 25.98 NORTH: Births 38 .. 02 38.71 39.22 39.40 38.41 Deaths 22.53 20.47 20.65 19.22 17.68 Increase 15.49 18.24 18.57 20.18 20.73 Geometric Growth Rate per Year (%) Total 1.71 2.02 2.06 2.. 25 2.)6 South 1.88 2.22 2.25 2.48 2.63 North 1.55 1.84 1.87 2.04 2.09 L! North obtained by subtracting the South from the estimated total. /1.. F • female; M • male. Source: Projections Demographiques pour le Tchad, 1963-85, B. Gil (Based on 1964 census) • - 72 - Table 1.2: CHAD --FERTILITY RATE BY AGE (ANNUAL NlTI1BER BlliTHS PER 1, 000 WOMEN BET1'11EEN 15 AND 49 YEARS. OF AGE) Age North South Total 15 - 19 149 185 164 20 - 24 252 299 274 25 - 29 193 253 219 30 - 34 139 184 160 35 - 39 98 Hili 122 40 - U1 46 73 59 L5 - 49 19 51 36 General Fertility 149 188 167 Source: 196,3-8,5, B. Gil  - 73 - Table l.J: CHAD -- MORTALXl'Y RATES PER 1,000 North South Total Age Male Female Male Female Male Female 1 216 168 263 203 243 186 2 50 47 59 56 55 51 3 22 21 26 25 24 23 5 25 24 29 28 28 26 10 23 23 26 27 25 25 15 16 17 18 20 17 19 20 21 23 23 25 2) 24 25 30 28 32 31 31 29 30 31 30 33 33 32 31 35 34 30 36 35 35 33 40 38 36 39 36 38 36 45 43 35 43 36 43 35 so 46 .36 45 37 45 37 55 53 44 so 43 52 44 60 57 52 83 so 54 51 65 65 66 116 62 60 64 70 67 75 54 66 59 70 75 63 40 48 68 54 74 80 51 74 36 57 42 65 Sou.rce: - 74 - Tc:ble 1.4: CHAD -- EX~TANCY (IN YEARS) North South Total. Age Male Female Male Female Male Female 0 36.24 41 .. 55 30 .. 89 36 .. 40 .. o6 38 .. 85 1 45.12 48.83 40 .. 79 44~59 42.57 46.62 5 47.32 so. 71 44 .. 06 47 .. 47 45 .. 40 49 .. 02 10 42.88 47.29 40 .. 85 Lh .. 31 42 .. 09 45 .. 74 15 39.91 43 .. 42 37 .. 03 40 .. 64 38.21 41 ,.96 20 36.21 39.81 33 .. 50 37 .. 23 34 .. 61 38 .. 47 25 32.90 .36 .. 42 30 .. 41 34 .. 08 31.44 35.20 30 29.60 33 .. 08 27 .. 35 30 .. 97 28.,27 31 .. 98 35 26.36 29.78 24 .. 35 27 .. 92 25.17 28 .. 82 40 23.20 26.46 21 .. 45 24.,86 22.,, 6 2.5 .. 62 45 20.17 23.11 18 .. 67 21 .. 70 19.29 22.37 .50 17.20 19.68 15 .. 93 18.46 16.45 19.05 55 14 .. 4.3 16 .. 44 1.3 .. 39 1 ;) .. 40 13 .. 82 15.89 60 11.78 13 .. 35 10.. 94 12 11.,28 12 .. 89 65 9.45 1 0.6.5 8.. 79 9.. 97 9.. 07 1 0.. 30 70 7.37 8.19 6.88 7.. 68 7.09 7.92 75 5.55 6.10 5.. 23 5 .. 77 5.. 36 5.93 80 4.01 4.26 3.90 4.09 3.. 93 4.. 16 Source:  - 75 - Table 1.5: CHAD -- :OOPULATION DENSTI'Y BY IREFECTURE Area in Population Density Prefectures km2 estimate - 1970 per lon2 SAHARA B.E.T .. 6o0,350 81,000 0.1 SA HE LIEN Baths 88,800 324,000 3.6 Biltine 46,850 141,000 3.0 Chari-Baguirmi 82,910 461,000 5.6 Gu6ra 58,950 174,000 3.0 Kanem 114,520 188,000 1.6 Lac 22,320 127,000 5.. 7 Ouadda! 76,240 340,000 4.. 5 Salamat 63,000 90,000 1 .. 4 SOUTH Logone occidental 8,695 241,000 27.7 Logone oriental 28,035 268,000 9 .. 6 Mayo-Kebbi 30,105 533,000 17.7 Moyen-Cbari 45,180 410,000 9.1 Tandjil' 18,045 262,000 14.. 5 TDrAL 1,284,000 3,640,000 2.8 Source: Enfance et Je'Wlesse ... Plan de Df!veloppement, November 1971. - 76 - Table 1.6: CHAD-- BIRI'H .AND DEATH RATES BY RIDIONS, 1964 Region Births Deaths NORTH Batha 35 22 Biltine 43 20 Chari-Ba guirmi 35 22 Guera 35 20 Ouaddat 42 35 Salamat 40 20 SOUTH Log one occidental 47 28 Log one oriental 44 31 Mayo-Kebbi 52 39 I"'oyen-Chari 45 31 Tandjile 55 43 TOTAL 45 31 of which urban centers 44 29 Source: 1964 census.  - 77 - Table 1. 7: CHAD --ACTIVE MAlE POPOI..ATION BY MAIM SECTOR OF ACTl.Vl!rY., 1964 Active Male Activity Population Far1aers and farm workers 469,78o Non-farm workers 5o,6J.o Non-skilled workers 8,070 Sk:llled workers 8,040 Artisans 3,88o Merchants 9,290 Professionals 2,730 White collar workers 7,970 Management 2,520 DiTCse 34,58o TG'UL 597,\70 - 78 - Table 1<:>8: CHAD -- u"RBAN POPULATION ffiOJE'i:TIONS 1970 A!<lD Popu.latian of Centers of 52 000 at!d over Urban Centers 1968 1970 1980 Census Estimate 132!11000 157 Sarh 35,ooo 38,000 Moundou .32,000 35,000 Abeche 24,000 26,000 Kelo lh,OOO 15,000 24,000 Koumra 13,000 14,000 22,000 Bongor 12,000 13,000 20,000 11,000 000 11,000 ,ooo Beneye 8,000 Fianga 8.000 La:'!: a;ooo Ati 6,000 6.;~000 Faya-Largeau 5,000 Bokoro 5,000 Moussoro 5,ooo Bodo 5,000 Doualat B~boto 5,000 .5,000 O'>..l.'Tl...P.a dj er Moissala Biltine 5,ooo Bouaso 6,ooo Bitkine 7,000 6.;!000 Nao Am-Timan Bebalem II 7.~~000 Ba!bokoum 8~000 B~bedjia 7,000 6, B:L1.der Kyabe Dembo Bekamba de (Chad)  CHAD -- URBAN BY ' 1970 1980 1963 1 1980 W:W7 - -- - - Total Male Total Female """'~-""' :::>14-- TTTF7~ - ,337 406,481!. J18,12J 814,279 41 ~,441 394,838 0= 4 42,098 21,064 21 ,034 .58,978 29,474 29,504 116,826 5.58 58,268 5-14 56,962 29,933 27' 98,144 49,646 48,498 182,209 91,854 90,355 15-59 144,849 70,214 74, 239,875 124,492 115,.383 490,470 256,414 234,056 60 and over 5,428 2,598 2,830 9,487 4,749 4, 738 24,774 12,615 12,159 TOTAL (%) 100.0 1oo.o 100.0 100.,0 100.0 100.,0 100.0 100.0 100.,0 0- 4 16.,9 17.0 16.8 14.5 14 .. 1 14.9 14.4 14.0 14.7 5-14 22.8 24.2 21.5 24.2 23.8 24..5 22.4 21.9 22.9 15-59 58.1 56.7 59.5 59 .. 0 59.8 58 .. 2 60.2 61 .1 59.3 60 and over 2.2 2.1 2 .. 2 2.3 2.,.3 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.. 1 Source: Projections Demographiques pour le Tchad, 1963-85, Gil on 1964 Census) .. --..1 1.0  Table 1 .. 10: CHAD -- EMPLOYMENT OF CHADIANS AND FOREIGNERS BY OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, 1967-70 IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR I 00 0 I 1967 1968 1969 1970 CATEGORIES CL! Ff! %£1 - c F % c F of /0 c F % Top management 5 76 6.17 7 88 7.)6 11 90 10.89 18 110 14,.01 Middle management 10 207 4.6o 13 213 5.. 75 19 203 8.55 66 179 26 .. 98 Foremen 58 229 20.20 66 240 21.56 63 247 20.32 81 261 23.67 Skilled staff 379 337 52.93 396 362 52. 21+ 353 336 51 .. 38 360 484 42 .. 65 Unskilled staff 662 193 77.h2 789 241 76.6o 905 184 83 .. 10 1,247 210 85 .. 58 Skilled workers 567 138 80.42 831 204 80 .. 28 930 199 82 .. 37 1,007 178 84.97 Unskilled workers 1,561 221 87.59 1,705 258 86.85 1,899 224 89.44 2,684 273 90.42 Laborers 4,745 209 95.78 5,101 190 96.40 4,612 171 96.42 5,578 162 97.17 General services 410 80 94.63 1,607 77 95.42 1,517 64 .. 95 1,737 78 95.70 TorAL 9,397 1,690 -- 84.75 10,515 ._ 1,873 84.88 10,309 ~ 85 .. 71 ].2,_77_8 - - 1,935 8_2'!8ij L1 C • Chadians; F =Foreigners. /1. Percentage of Chadians as a percentage of total. Source: Rapport Annuel 1970, Direction du Travail.  Table 1,.11: CHAD -- PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATIONAL CATIDORY, 1970 Top Middle Qualified Unqual. Skilled Unskilled General Manage- Manage- Foremen Staff Staff Workers Workers Laborers TOTAL ment ment Commerce 31 }.)}. 77 169 345 60 124 401 438 1,686 Construction and Public Works 12 11 74 43 107 240 996 1,398 152 3,033 Food Industry 15 34 21 60 58 107 257 678 127 1,357 Agricultural industries 5 53 4 52 65 84 305 1,364 198 2,130 Manufacturing 11 10 1.2 33 56 192 371 477 94 1,286 Surface transport 5 11 12 28 119 261 269 610 103 l,Ll8 Air transport 6 15 27 32 79 1 12 140 25 337 Agriculture 2 6 - 2 1 3 32 103 9 158 Hotel 7 2 19 57 150 1 40 84 180 540 Quarrying Banking 1 7 4 18 24 - 2 77 2 112 14 3 32 - 23 11 58 89 310 Services 11 7 12 175 122 3 56 84 162 632 Electricity, water 1 6 19 19 29 31 82 29 24 240 TOTAL llh 218 Q 749 1,245 1,000 _?,576 5,402 13,21~ - !z581 Source: RapPort Annuel 1970, Direction du Travail. 00 1-"  Table 1.12: CHAD -- WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPA'r ION, 1967-7 0 o::> N 1967 1970 Sector Number %.. Number % ---------ttL!it!Qi%________ M'rM" ,.~-- -~== : EF--CWIIS.,., ~- 4 ~ Commerce 1,583 11.33 2,114 14.. 14 2,140 14.. 13 1,686 8., Diverse Industries 1,166 8.. 1 6. 74 1,150 7.. 59 1,526 91 Construction, Public Works 1,263 9.04 2,600 17.39 427 16.. 03 3,033 15 .. 73 Transport 1,287 9.. 21 1,375 9.20 1,416 9.35 1,755 9.. 10 Agriculture and Agricultural Industry 4,029 28 .. 84 3,448 23.06 2,717 17.94 2,288 11.86 Food Industries 679 4~86 5oo 3.34 870 5.74 1,357 7.. 04 Hotels 530 3.. 79 572 ).83 564 3.72 540 2.. 80 Mining 53 0 .. 38 119 o.. Bo 113 0 .. 75 89 Oe. Banking and other Services 307 20 2 2.. 15 347 2.. 29 942 h.. 88 P.ara-administrative Services 190 1 .. 36 330 2 .. 21 283 87 1,514 7.. Public Services 2,883 25.64 2, 17 .. 14 3,118 20.,59 4,556 23.63 TOTAL 13,970 100.. 00 14,951 100.00 !5.)145 100.00 19,2~ 100 .. 00 Sowce: Rapport Annue1 1970, Direction du Trava :U., I  T3ble 1 .. 13: CRID -- WAGE .AND S.ALARY J:L~On:ENT BY I37EL OF SXI1.1S, 1967-70 ---·~:lde:'~.t'l"""•, __ . . .______ , . ...___,._k..._~ 1967 1968 1969 0_ _ -12~r>.L_ c~tDzory Number % Number ·· % ~~~ Number % Un:.'!'.bar ~ Top }\'ar.agsw..ent 93 0.66 111 0.74 115 0.76 219 1.14 i'.dd::lle !·lln:t~e:::':.ent 265 1.90 261 1. 75 264 1.74 251 1.30 Foreman 372 2.66 371 2.48 361 2.38 489 2 .. 54 Skilled staff 864 6.19 950 6.. 35 843 5.5? 902 4.68 l:n:'lkilled staff 1,163 8.33 1,297 3.68 1,423 9.40 3,563 18.47 Skilled Wo:rkers 1,183 8.47 1,421 9.50 1,521 10.04 1,667 8.64 Unskilled Workers 2,257 16.15 2,268 15.17 2,590 17.10 3,828 19.85 Dlb>.>re:oa 6,070 43.45 6,;216 41.58 6,147 40.59 6,552 33.97 General Services 1,703 12.19 2,056 13.75 1,881 12.42 1,815 9.41 TarAL 13,970 100.00 14,951 100.00 15.145 100.00 19,286 100.00 -~- - -- Sou.rcc: ~:JPEort Annuel 19IQ., Direction du Travail. 00 w  - 84 - Table 2.1: CHAD -- GDP ESTIMATES, 1968-71 (CFAF billions, Current prices) 1970 1971 Primary Sector : 30.3 37.5 JB.o 37.7 Agriculture and Forestry 19.h 2b.T 8":0 21.9 of which: Cotton 2.4 3.6 2.8 2.3 Millet 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.1 Animal Husbandry S.h 9.0 10.0 12.5 Fishing 2.5 2.5 3.0 J.J Secondary Sector: 6.9 '/.9 8.3 9.9 Industry 4.0 4.9 G a Construction ;(.3 2.3 2.h 2.6 Others 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Tertiary Sector:__ 12.1 13.3 17 .o 16.4 Transports & Communications 1.7 1':]" 2.3 2.6 Commerce 9.3 10.3 13.2 12.4 Other Services 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 Administrative Services '(.7 9.0 9.8 10.4 others {! 2.7 4.3 5.5 5.4 TOTAL 59.7 72.0 78.6 79.8 - - - L! Includes import taxes, household wages and salaries, and rental value of owner- occupied dwellings. Source: Ministere du Plan et des Aides Exterieures, Comptes Economi~ues 1963-68 (July 1971), and Note sur la Situation Economique du Tchad a la £in de l•Annee 1971 (February 1972). Mission estimates.  - 85 - Table 2.2: CHAD -- GDP FORECAST 1971, 1975, AND 1978 (CFAF billions, 1971 Constant Prices) Average annual 1971 1975 1978 Growth Rate 1971/78 Prirnc:rry Sector 37.7 42.3 45.3 2.7 Agriculture and Forestry 21.9 2~.1 27 .o 3.0 Animal Husbandry 12.5 13.4 14.3 1.9 Fishing 3.3 3.8 4.0 2.7 Secondary Sector 9.9 12.9 15.9 7.0 Industry b.4 T.5'" 10.1 7.~ Construction 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.L:. Others 0.9 1.6 2.5 15.7 Tertiary Sector 16.4 19.9 22.5 4.6 Transport and Communication 2.b J.3 3.9 6.0 Commerce 12.h 14.7 .3 h.O Others 1.4 1.9 2.3 ?.2 Administrl'itive Services 10.h 12.0 13.1 3 .1} Others ~ 6.2 7.4 4.6 Tota] 79.8 93.7 104.6 4.0 ~ ~ :::IIIIBa: ..Jour·ce: 'Missj~on Estimates •  - 86 - Table 2.3: CHAD -- ESTlMATED BALANCE AND USE OF RESOURCES (CFAF billions) 1968-lf. 197l*L!. 197l*il. GDP 59-7 79.8 79.8 Imports (Goods & NFS) 21.0 29.1 27.5 Exports (Goods & NFS) -16.7 -22 .o -18.8 Total Available Resources 64.0 86.9 88.5 - -=== """"""~= Gross Domastic Investment 4.0 6.0 6.0 10.4 Private 0.5 1.0 1.0 2 L Public ).5 5.0 5.0 8.0 Consumption 60.0 80.9 82.5 ,1 'rotal Use of Resources Gross Domestic Investment - 64.0 -4.0 86.9 ====- -6.0 88.5 -6.0 -10,~ Gross Domestic Savings -0.) -1.1 -2· 7 Domestic Resource Surplus -4.3 -7.1 -8.7 = 8.,5 ., Gross Domestic Savings -0.) oJ.. -2.7 1.,9 Net Factor Income Payments -1.6 -2.2 -2.2 -3 1 Net Transfers 2.8 4.6 4.6 >.o Gross National Savings 0.9 1.3 -0 • .3 8 Percentage of GDP Gross Domestic Investment 6.7 7.5 7.5 9o5 Gross Domestic Savings 0.5 1.4 3.4 9 Domestic Resource Surplus 7.2 8.9 10.9 Sol Net Factor Income Payments 2.7 2.8 2.8 0 Gross National Savings 1.5 1.6 0 .. 4 3~6 * Current prices. ** Constant 1971 Prices. L!. Based on 1971 balance of payments data which contains exceptionally high current receipts as explained in Part II, c. ~ Mission estimate based on normal trade and non factor service figures. Source: TAbles 2.1, 2.2, 3.5, and data supplied by Chadian and BCEAEC Officials .. ~nasion estimates.  - 87 - Table 3.1: CHAD -- COMPOSrriON OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS BY IRODUCT,l967-7l ( CFAF millions) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Liix:ports Cot.ton 5,504 5' 772 6,586 5,910 5,257 Live animals Sh7 229 168 248 397 Heat 769 7h4 684 1,450 l ,502 Fish 95 108 Sl 28 32 Gum arabic 112 107 80 35 37 Hides and skins 90 101 115 lOS 9l Nat-ron 63 38 56 16 Other 354 l.J.82 253 411 h59 Total registered exports Estimated unregistered exportsL!. 7,53h 988 7 ,5yt 8,026 8~206 7 2 787 ~ 1:110 718 r1. a. !~stimated total exports Imports - 8,522 ,_ ~ 9,136 ~ 8 J 92Lt = 7,787 ~ Sugar 1,629 1,177 9lt8 1,234 1,243 Ot!Jer food 2, 1, 709 l, 792 2,150 2,077 Tobacco and tobacco products 33h 3h9 252 292 1:10 Petroleum products 1,522 1,695 2,453 2,472 2, ?4h Cement 211 546 305 3 '!<-> I I 300 Chemical products (medicine, fertilizer soap and matches) 1,177 1,005 964 l,h60 l ,31Lr Textiles and shoes 2,275 1,833 1,556 l, ?51 1,637 Hetals and metal products 708 966 946 l,JJh 1,125 !via.chinery 1,661 1,402 1,L.33 2,078 2,176 Transport equipme:1t 1,202 l,o63 1,267 1, 712 2,099 Other 1,593 1,616 1,984 2,355 2,3 Total registered imports 141494 13~361 1)z900 l 7 z216 17.220 Estimated unregistered importsLg, soo ~00 l 2 40o 2 2 ?20 n.a. Estimated total imports 14,994 13,861 15,300 20,006 17,220 fl Tvla.inly J5ve animals. /1. Hainly textiles, enamelled products~ and sirr.i.Iar consumer goods. ~)ource: I1inistere de 1 1 Economie, des Finances et des Transports: ;..;_:;;;:;=..;::...=::..::.:__= St~tistique, Mars/Awil 1970, Mc"\rs/Avril 1971, Janvier 1972. BCE:AEC, l?..§Llance des Paiements, 1969 and 1970.  Tahle 3 • 2: CHAD -- EXPORTS BY DESTINATION AND IMPORTS BY ORIGIN, 1967- 71 - 88 - ( CFAF millions ) 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 r•:xro cts France 3, 774 lt,333 4,no 6,005 5,369 Other EFX:: 910 828 1,400 15 19 Other Europe 412 496 518 51 46 Ni ger;"a 528 192 264 257 325 ,Japan 338 3l-L4 480 n.a. n.a. Other non -flC EA~ area 673 632 712 1,013 1,238 TOTAL ~ 6,R25 7,484 7,§~g 62997 i\CEABX: area 899 756 542 790 Total registered exports 7,534 7,581 8,026 8,206 LlJR Estimated unregistered exports 9"8"8" l, 784 1,100 718 n.a. 8,522 9,126 &.stimated total exports - 9,365 ~ = 8,924 = 7,787 - Tmports ?ranct.~ 4,847 4,415 4,842 7,020 7,652 Uther 2J<B 1,948 2,276 l, 741 2,029 1,650 Other Europe 834 842 999 982 946 North and South America 1,555 1,116 981 1,380 1,205 Asia and Australia 783 659 551 813 1,131 Ni. r~eria 518 950 1,641 1,608 1,929 Other non-BCEAEX:: Africa 5h4 305 601 508 759 TorAL llz029 l0z)63 1123)6 142341 l)l272 flC EAEC area 3,465 2,798 2,544 2,425 1,948 Total rer:is tered imports lul494 l:hg6l 13.900 l 7 ~ 216 l 7 2220 Estimated unregistered imports sao 00 1,400 2, 790 n.a. B:stimated total imports lh,994 13,861 15,300 20,006 17,220 :::Jcru.rc1:: Hinistere de 1 1 Economie, des Finances et des Transports: Bulletin de Statistique, Mars/ Avril 1970, }furs/ Avril 1971, Jaruary, l972.BCEAEC, Balance des Paiements, 1969 and 1970.  Table 3.J: CHAD -- Ex:PORTS AND EXPORT FOREX:}ASTS, 1968-71, 1975 AND 1978 ( CFAF millions) Average Annual 191>8· 1969 1970 ___1911 197L____:t21B T9~~ti~~JJ! Total !!Eor~. ~ 9,lJ§. ~.2~ ~~5~5~ ll&2J: ~ J~ !J.O~ Cotton 5,772 6,586 5,910 5,257 8,321 9,647 5 .. 3 9.. 0 Live Animals 222 168 248 397 666 937 15 .. 5 13.0 Meat 7Uh 684 1,450 1,502 1 '708 1,960 10,.2 3.9 others 8,36 588 598 631 724 814 -0.,3 3.7 81 026 ~ ~ ~ 1, ,~419 ~ Total Registered Exports §..206 8 .. 0 Unregistered Ex:ports (est. ) 1,7 1,110 m 71 LYB" 3 -1 • -14.7 ----------------------------------------·----~------" Source: Table 3.1 of the Statistical Appendix, ,and missiOn estimates. OJ 1.0  \0 0 'fap1e ~.4: CHAD -- IMFDRTS AND IMPORT FORFnASTS, 1968-71, 1975 AND 1978 (in CFAF millions) Annual Average Gro~~ Rates (~) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1975 1978 1968-78 1971-78 ·-· t~r• -o:;!W~ & .. . _ _ _ ... ~...___,..._..., Total Imports 1 861 15,300 oo5 20,220 19,760 21,820 h.. 6 1.1 Sugar 1,177 948 1,234 -1,243 =· 1,050 850 -3.2 == = -5.3 Other Food 1,709 1 '792 2,150 2,077 2,150 2,250 2 .. 8 1 .. 1 Tobacco Products 349 252 292 130 300 340 -0.:3 14.7 Petroleum Products 1,695 2,453 2,472 2, 744 2,500 2,900 5.5 o.. a Cement 546 305 377 300 360 420 -2..5 4. 9 Chemi~al Products 1,005 964 1,460 1 '314 1 '700 2,000 7.. 2 6 .. 5 Textiles and Shoes 1 ,833 1 ,556 1 '751 'I ,637 1 '300 1,240 -3e8 -3 .. 9 Hetals/Meta1 products 966 946 1,334 1,125 1 '350 1,580 5 .. 0 5.,0 Machinery 1 '402 1,433 2,078 2,176 2,500 2~800 7~2 3$6 Transport Equipment 1,063 1,267 1 '712 2,099 2,000 2,200 7 .. 5 0 .. 7 others 1 ,616 1,984 2,355 2, 375 2,500 2,700 5 .. 2 1$9 Total Registered Imports 1) 2 ~61 l1.1215 ~Q. 2 .. 1 ~ 17.220 '17' 71.Q 4.0 "'"'' ~~~~- Unregistered Imports (Est&) _.,00 2,790 3,000 2, 300 2,000 14.9 -5.7 ' Source: Table 3.1 of the Statistical Appendix, and mission estimates.  - 91 - Table 3.. 5: CHAD -- BALANCE OF PAYf·'l.ENl'S, 1969-71 (CFAF billions) ---- 1969 1970 1911Ll.. E:-:::po:~ts 9.1 1?.? 11 ~ 7 I:rrDorts 10.6 14.1 14 .. 7 Balance of Trade - 1.5 - 1.9 - 3~0 Non-F;o.ctor Services (Net) - 4-3 - 4 •.s - 4.1 Transport and Insarance - 5.0 - 5.7 - 5.6 Chadian Government Foreign Governments - ?.7 + h.4 - ?.6 + 5.? ~ + ? .6 6.1 TrB.vel -o0.5 - o.B - 0.8 Other Servlcel'l - .. 5 - 0.6 - 1.,? Interest and Investment Income - o.. 6 - 0.5 - 0 .. 6 /2 Worker's Re.rrdttance ._ - 1 • .3 - L..o 1.0 - 1.6 Net L1 2,.8 4.6 Tr.~n.~fe;rs Blllance on Curr~nt Account Capit.Pl GrHnts iJJ. - 11.9 ?.8 - -~ _, 4.4 . 0 .,.,. - 4.7 5.6 Direct Foreign Investment /.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 Net Public Borrowing 0.7 o. 1 Unclassified 0.7 Other Items !!:.. Ll 0.8 1 2 Net Monetary Movements o.. li ?.j Payment figures for 1971 contain unusually high receipts for exports (partly unexplained) and non factor services, accordingly these figures are not suitable as a basis for the long run projection contained in Chapter Y "Planning and Growth Prospect.s 11 .. Sjncc 1970 the BCFAEC includes rapatriated earnings in "Private Unrequited TransferR".. To allow comparison with 1969 and previous yaars, we have reinstated this item in the current account balance. Net cost of foreign technical assistance (i.e. technical assistance at don.or cost less Chad's contribution) plus private unrequited transfers (~inly pensions) excluding rapatriated earnings. Public unrf"ouited t.ransfers excluding t.ha net cost of technical assistance .. lons-term in~atments. N(i'1-:monr:t~x7 aho!'t-t.erm capital plus errors and omissions. Sou!'co: J):':'lPnc~ d~s p.?.ieiThl'!nts dl~, Tchad (1969, 1970, and 1971), IBRD computationf;., - 92 - Table 4.. 1: CHAD .,._ EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 --- DEBT REPAYABlE IN FOREIGN CU&'t?.ENCY (US$ thousands) ~ Outstandin~ Disbursed December ~l.z 197~ Undisbursed Total ZI ~ of Creditor I Austria 265 265 France 900 900 Garmany (Fed. Rep. of) 762 762 Italy 3,740 3, 7h0 Netherlands 719 719 United K.i.ngdom 287 16 JOJ Suppliers 6,67;) 16 6,689 Switzerland 1,.369 1,369 Cfther PriVl:lte Financlal Tnstitutioru: f...z369 11!369 Suropean Investrrent Bank 1,215 1,215 IDA 1,851 6,249 8,100 Loans from International Organizations 3.066 ~-_,.~ 6,211~ ~5 Denmark 1,1!33 1_, 1!33 France 18,P27 889 19' 716 Germany (Fed. Rep. of) 4,660 h,66o Israel 217 217 Lo~ns from Governments 23.z70).4 2,322 262026 Total External Public Debt 3l+.z 812 8,587 43.z3z2. Excludes the following: Includes the following: Interest in arrears: Amount Principal in arrears: Amount Austria 26 .Austr:i:a 63 France 36 France 467 Italy 89 Italy 279 Netherlandfl 35 Netherlands 162 United Kingdom 34 United Kingdom 208 Suppliers 220 Suppliers 11172. Switzerlann 202 Switzerland 391 Other P.t·ivate Financial Inst. Germany (Fed. Rep. of) 202 Other Private Financial Inst. 391 - 3 Germany (Fed .. Rep. of) 23 Iorael 9 Isreal 36 I~ans from Government 12 Loans from Governments ~ Total L1 Debt with a maturity of over one year.  2* L DEBI AS OF IN FOREIGN (US$ thousands) ----------~,--,..,.,~ ".. q --~' ~-?f Period Disbursed Including 1968 26,!0.9 37,.501 10,9.50 5,094 2, 411 - 6r.' :;:> 1969 28,848 45,746 2,670 2,437 2,731 625 3,356 -2, 1970 25,816 42,699 925 10,100 1,994 411 2, -637 1971 ,932 42,993 2,940 3,596 5,346 762 6,1oc 1,183 1972 33,183 41,770 - 1,665 3,431 783 4,214 -3,526 1973 27,891 34,813 - 1,458 3,150 688 3,838 1974 1975 26,199 25,016 31,662 29,072 - - 1,407 1,355 2,590 2,453 6o6 560 3,196 3,013 1976 23,919 26,619 - 1,069 2,179 459 2,638 1977 197B 22,809 21,898 24,4.40 22,771 - - 758 534 1,669 1,422 339 250 2,008 1,673 1979 21,009 21,348 - 229 977 217 1,194 1980 20,261 20,371 - 107 876 198 1,074 1981 19,493 19,L96 - 3 788 184 972 1982 1983 18,707 H'l,029 18,707 18,029 - - - - 678 654 172 164 851 819 1984 17,374 17,374 - - 658 157 814 1985 16,717 16,717 - - 642 149 791 1986 16,075 16,075 - - 626 142 768 1987 15,449 15,449 - - 629 135 765 1988 14,820 14,820 - - 691 129 820 1989 1990 14,129 13,383 14,129 13,383 - - - - 746 749 122 863 1991 12.634 12,634 - - 796 107 y Includes service on all debt listed in Table 4.1 prepared September 1, 1972, the exception of the following: Debt for which repayment terms are not available: \0 VJ Loans from Governments - France 3, Principal in arrears (see Table L.l) ~z6&f Total ),1:;);:1  \0 ~ T3t1e 5.1: CKL,.D--BUDGEI' DEFICTI3 ON 1~ FISCAL l~::<. 3ASIS, l:~6D-72 I (CF.a.F millions) .~.~~--~~- 1971 1968 1969 1970 (as of Yarch 1?71 1972 "---~--~-~·~- - R,l972) __e_s_t~J..rna_t_e_ _b_u_d_g_e_t_ Current EY-p~nditures 11,403 12,822 14)146 14,604 14,6oL 13,228 Total Revenue 9,497 11,404 12,782 12,798 13,962 13,228 Ordinary deficit -1,906 -l,Ll8 -1,364 -1,806 -642 Invsstment -644 -1,052 -768 -901 -901 Total deficit -2,550 -2,470 -2,132 -2,707 -1,543 --~-~~------~x-.;:>f;'"....,_~---- ·:a:___ '~'~<~><--~-"'--=-~:::lilliUilt...-w::"..-:lBr=~'""""-=· ~ 3011rce: fv!inj_st.ry of Finance and Treasury.  Tsl?le 5•2: CEAD -- GO':TER.NHENT EXPENDJI'1JRES (FISCAL YEAR) ( C!t'AF millions) 1968 1969 1970 April 30, 1972 1971 Judget "'--.-at'".:o--••"O":;cor___, _ __... _ _ _ _ _ _ .._,...,.,_.__~..,o..~_..,.-"' _____ """-.,.""'3<0----~.,._,.IE>Ol-,..,.~_,--.::- ___ ~~·- ~~--~"----~--- ,._._ -::~ ~-J·E~ f?}::t) ar1d salc:.ri_(~S ( 41- ./} ~ I I ~ ·,../ 6,l.JJ6 7,154 7,619 7s 6L12 nated.?"l ar.d Supplies 2,630 3,,062 3, 83 5 3, A75 2,673 J-'ia intenance 127 llJ. 1Se 141 155 Public debt 444 432 551 869 690 Subsidies a,nd tl'ansferG 1,858 1,579 1,674 1,768 1,737 Loans and adYanc:es 587 61 10 other 264 1,111 764 332 3.31 Ordinery exp~nditures 11 1 403 12,822 14,146 1L,604 J:nvestment 644 1,052 768 901 TOI'AL 12,04$_ 13,874 14,914 15,5o5 13,228 Source: !<inistry Finance and Treasury. \0 VI  \0 Table ~ ~ .).j: CPJ.D -- n,~Po~T TAX YIEI.T)S 1966- T~- :·<m B.'DGE:':~:.-:: ?.Rovisim~s l97l AND l9't2 0'\ (CFAF millions) To be collected after 1966 "J..967 1968 1969 1970 1971 f·farch Jl,l972 1.... () '1"' ;.J.. 1972 CustOM duties 237 218 241 255 27L 182 171 16L Fiscal import taxes 1,670 1,573 1,392 2,66L 2' IJ36 2,093 (LR6) 2,L1o 2, 61:0 Import turnover taxes 639 5L7 Su? 779 1,336 1,251 1,309 1,320 CompleMentary taxes 252 2R.S 309 3131 77L 6Fl5 635 660 other taxes 231 Ll.! 77 58 71 oC:: ' ... 60 60 Internal Import tion tax consu~- - - - - - 579 70.5 6f.o T0rAL 3,029 2,670 2,566 !f,137 5,291 L,8P5 5,290 5,52L - - Source: 1972 Budget and Treasury fig~ITes.  Table ;: • ~~: CEi1D -- . , FY68 - FY72 (CFAF millions) --- 19613 1969 1970 r>1arcb 31, Balance 1971 1972 1971 due estimate Budget --------------· ,~ Import taxes 2,529 4,137 5,292 !,,885 LF6 5, 371 )' 4 Expert taxes 1,043 n5S c; / ?b6 1, Head tax 787 n71 B61 828 8L 850 Livestock ta.x 23L 147 150 131 239 150 ~come tax 1,559 1,592 1,870 2,26h 17L ~ l "Jf:l c 'Lj._.)') 1,fl2J (~her production consumption taxes 1,923 1,961 2, 2,7b2 147 2,889 2, of which: Turnover tax ( )~28) ( 612) ( 640) ( 680) (131) ( f11) ( 600) Consumption tax (1,001) ( 760) ( 964) (l, ) - (1, \ ) (1, 11()) State Enterprises );29 ''41 ::>• L68 510 "1 I _, 583 )66 Solidarity Fund 629 other revenues ano i:,ransfers 601 1,138 6i,o 59 699 Extraordinary revenues 6A 17;? - 17 ;~ E L5 lS TOTAL 9,L91 1:1.__,_40L 12,782 12_,}98_ 1,161 l)_1g_?_f I \0 Source: Ministry of Finance. """ - 98 - Table 5.5: CHAD -- BUOOErARY ACTUAL FINANCING ( CFAF millions) Actual Budget 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Revenues (excluding French aid and domestic borrowings) 9,497 11,404 12,782 13,013 16,600 Expenditures 12,047 13,874 14,914 15,589 12s600 Budget deficit (Fiscal Year) -2,550 -2,470 -2,132 -2,707 4,000 Net adjustment for the comple- mentary period +999 -142 •16 -802 Cash deficit -1,.~51 -2,612 -2,116 -3,378 Financing: French aid 530 300 1,600 2,150 l,5oo Central Bank 222 258 263 27 400 Arrears 78 1,182 576 1,179 2,400 Domestic Borrowing 250 6 Treasury cash changes -59 +lL~ -112 -107 Net changes and others (Treasury liabilities including public institutions deposits) 530 852 -211 138 -300 Source: Treasury and mission calculations.  - 99 - Tabla 5.6: CHAD -- TREASURY BALANCE SHEET: FINANCOO BUDGETARY OPERATIONS ( CFAF millions ) July 31, December 31, March 31, 1971 1971 1972 Assets Cumulative Deficit Budget Lh 4,730 4,730 4,730 FY 1971 Budget L2 1,081 2,124 908 FY 1972 Budget 1,730 Reserve fund 6 -124 -124 other 7 7 9 Sub t·otal 5,824 6,737 7,35.3 Liquid assets 761 66o 406 Total assets 6,585 72 397 7,759 Lia bili ties Advances French Treasury 875 550 850 Advances Cent:t'tll Bank 864 879 1,126 Deposits public agencies 2,042 1,760 2,075 of which: Hbad fund (260) (122) (309) Pension fund (788) (874) (885) Obtton Stabil. Fund (519) (508) (510) Payment arrears 1,789 3,085 3,000 other third party accounts 941 975 1,012 other treasury operations 74 148 -304 Total liabilities 6.z585 7,397 7,759 !J After CFAF 3,850 French Budgetary aid for 1965 through FY 1970. ~ After CFAF l,5oo French Budgetary aid for FY 1971. Source: Treasury .. - 100 - 'rable 6.1: CHAD -- SELECTED HONEI'ARY AND CBEDTI DEVELOfl.IE!ifrS (CFAF millions) 196? 1969 1970 1971 ~December 31L Cent:;:a1 Bank Foreign Assets Credit to the Treasury - 553 - 1,335 1,003 3,280 784 1,500 1,717 1,338 Credit to Comm. Banks and 5,149 5,747 4,191 3,729 other Financial Institutions Credit to the Economy 10,777 122:280 112265 9,553 Banking System 10,046 11,405 10,266 9,081 Short term 7,780 9,348 8,147 6,608 Medium term 856 640 883 1,280 Long term 1,410 1,417 1,236 1,193 of which: Central Bank (5,149) (5 '747) (4 ,191) (3,729) Treasury (Customs Bills) 731 975 999 472 C.C.C.E. (Loans and Advances) 4208:2 3,924 3,896 4,o29Ll Government 2,841 2,783 2,920 2,892 Public Institutions 167 126 88 119 B.D.T. 1,075 1,015 888 1,018 Money Supply and Quasi-Money ~ 7,950 9,030 9,619 Currency ( 4, 39) (4,910) (5 ,309) (6,194) Deposits with aomm. Banks (2,496) (2,637) (3,096) (2,872) Total Money Supply 1,035 7 ,S47 8,4oS 9,066 Special Deposits (241) (143) (122) (130) Time Deposits (74) (260) (503) (423) Total Quasi-Money 315 403 625 553 L1 As of September 30, 1971. Source: BCEAEC, Etudes Et Statistigues, Nos. 148, 159,and 174.  Table 6£E: CHAD-- COMPOSITION OF LOANS GRANTED BY BOT 1969~ 71 .( CFAF millions) 1969 1970 1971 CUMULATIVE TOTAL N A - '1> N A '1> N A 1> -- N A - ,;._; Agriculture 170 2, 792.2 87.3 ll5 2,260.5 80.6 ll8 2,026.0 75.0 9,149 16,947.7 75.4 Rural Improvement~ - - - - - - - - - 173 78.5 0.3 Handicraft and Industl~ ) 33 101.3 3·6 24 9.1 0.) 400 1,252.6 5.6 ) 35 133-7 4.2 Commerce, Transports and 6 134.5 4.8 3 262.5 9.7 52 784.7 3-4 ) Public Organizations ) Housing 497 197.1 6.2 635 22). 2 8.0 825 315.7 11.7 6,493 2,941.7 13.1 Household Equipment 1,595 56.6 1.8 1,875 68.2 2.4 1,644 66.4 2.5 11,639 37e.s 1.7 - Automobile Financing 56 16.5 0.5 63 17.8 0.6 52 20.6 0.8 314 106.3 0.5 -- --- -- --- -- -- -- --- --- Total 2,353 3,196.1 100.0 . 2, 727 2,805.4 100.0 2,666 2,700.3 100.0 2c ,220 22,490.0 100.0 =ss:::us =-·-=-==== ==r==== •s:=== ======= ==•=-= :::::~~==== ======-== ===== =~:=-==== ======z=== In the above ''N'' refers to the number of loans and "A" to the total amount. SouTce: BDT, Rapport d'Activit~ (Exercice 1970), and data supplied by BOT.Officials. ~ 0 I-' I  Table 7.1: CHAD -- ESTIMATES OF LIVESTOCK NUMBERS BY DISTRICTS IN 1971 ...... 0 !'>,) (Thousands of Head and Percent) Cattle % Sheep/Goats % Horses % Camels % Donkeys % Pigs -~- ~----- Kanem 1,100 .. 0 24 .. 4 Boo .. o 19 .. 3 20.,0 13 .. 1 6o.,O 16.9 10.0 2) .. 1 0.1 2.0 Baths 900.,0 20.0 800.0 19.3 20 .. 0 1.3.1 no.o .31 .. 0 so.o 16.,5 Chari-Baguirmi aoo.o 17 .. 8 800 .. 0 3 25 .. 0 16.3 o .. a 6o.o 19 .. 8 1.3 Ouaddai 55o.o 12 .. 2 250 .. 0 6 .. 0 20 .. 0 1).1 )0.. 0 8.4 5o.o 16.5 0.. 4 8.,0 Biltine 300.0 6 .. 7 300.0 7.. 2 15 .. 0 9 .. 8 40.0 11.3 35.0 11.5 Lac 270.0 6.0 100.0 2.4 5 .. 0 3.. 2 2.. 0 o .. 6 10.0 3·3 M'ayo-Kebbi 220.0 4.9 Soo .. o 15 .. 0 9.8 - - 10.0 3e3 2.. 0 40.0 Guera 150.0 3.. 3 6o .. o 10 .. 0 6~5 0.,2 - 10.0 3.3 ) ) 0.,1 2.0 8o.o 8 5o.o 3.. 0 o.1 - 6.0 1.9 ) Logone-Tandjile so.o 1 .. 1 250.,0 15.,0 9.8 - - o.. 5 1.0 Moyen-cbari So .. o 1.1 120.0 2.9 3.. 0 2 .. 0 - - o.. s 01112 0.. 1 2.0 B.. E.,T. 30e0 0 .. 7 120 .. 0 2.9 2.,0 1 .. 3 110"0 31.,0 0.. 3 o.1 TOTAL ll.t29~ ~ 153.0 100,.0 - Olllf;;B s.o - a.nd  Table 7 .. 2s CHAD -- ESTIMA.TED uriLIZATION OF THE OFFTAKE FROM THE NATIONAL HERD IN 1970 Gattle Sh§!P & Goats Carcass Carcass Carcass Carcass Number Weight Weight Number Weight Weight of m tons % Per head of m tons % Per head Animals (kg) Animals (!gl_ Domestic Consumption Fort Lamy 24,400 3,800 6 156 12,500 200 1 16 Fort Archambault 4,100 520 1 127 160 3 - 19 other urban centers 28,400 3,120 s 110 36,000 Soo 3 14 Rural areas 200_,000 20,000 31 100 900,000 13"'000 84 14 Total 256_,900 27"_44() Jl. 107 948,660 13,703 88 14 Ex_ports Live iSo,ooo 23,000 36 153 uo,ooo 1,6So 11 15 Chilled meat 69_,000 11,000 17 159 13,000 230 1 18 Dried meat 22,000 2,200 4 100 Total 36,200 150 123,()(X) 1,880 15 2laJ,OOO -57 - 12 Total Uses 497,900 63,640 100 128 1_,071,660 100 - 15,583 = 14 - Source: Directorate of Livestock, Annual Report 1970 ...... 0 w  Table 7.. ;3: CHAD -- RECORDED AND UNRECORDED EXPORTS OF LIVE CATTLE BY DESTINAT (Thousands of Head and Percent) .... 0 ~ Average Average Destination 1960-6l, Percent 1965 1966 1968 1969 1965-69 Percent 1970 Percent Nigeria R 57' 390 79.4 71,881 ,260 72,1h5 39,617 23,986 60,978 87.3 21, 9Lr0 69.1 u 62,610 64.7 28_,119 22,740 27,855 45, J8: 86,01h 46,022 53.lt 78,060 66.0 Central African R 14,700 20.4 5,858 4,539 15,608 12,861 4,684 8, 710 12.5 9, 30.9 Republic u 17,300 17.9 24,142 35' 461 2h, 27,1 '316 27,290 31.7 20,201 17.1 Cameroon R 161 0.2 6 30 .3 353 244 127 0.2 10 u 10,839 11.2 4,994 4,970 4,997 4,647 14,756 7,573 9.1 14,990 12$7 Sudan R 26 u 5,974 6.2 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 s,ooo 5,000 5.8 5,000 4.2 Recorded Exports R 72,2JJ 42.8 1_1,74$ 829 87,756 52,831 28!914 69;815 4h.8 31,7h9 .2 Unrecorded Exports U 96,723 57 .2. 62 ,255_ ~8,171 62,244 121,086 86,182 55.2 118222,1 78.8 Total Ex:ports (R+U) 169,QOO 100.0 140,000 . 170,000 ~SOzOOO 13Sz000 l56200Q 1502000 -- Source: Directorate of Livestock, Annual Reports, and mission calculations.  - 105 - Table 7.4: CHAD -- ESTIMATED EXPORTS OF LIVE ANIMALS BY DESTINATION IN 1970 AND TOTAl SINCE 1965 . Cattle ~her Animals fl. Destination Number % Number % Nigeria 100,000 67 41,300 36 Cameroon 15,ooo 10 10,100 9 Central African Rapublic & Congo 30,000 20 25,300 22 Libya 17,000 lS Sudan 5,ooo 3 21,000 18 Total 1970 150,000 100 114,700 100 Total 1969 150,000 114,700 Total 1968 135,000 114,700 Total 1967 150,000 124,700 Total 1966 170,000 130,100 Total 1965 140,000 129,100 L! Sheep, goats, c&mels and pigs. Source: Directorate of Livestock, Annual Reports 1965-70. [!_ Mainly beef. Sources: 1965-70: Annual reports Directora.te of Livestock 1971: Statistics of Farcha.'s Slaughter House  Table 7.6: CHAD -- PRODUCER PRICES FOR LIVE CATTLE ( CFAF per Head) Fort c1 Archambault Ati (Batha) ~lassakor;t ~Chari - B2 1970 1968 1969 1970 1968 l9b9 1970 3- to 4-yea.r old bulls and steers 7,ooo 3,5oo 1+,000 6,000 L.,ooo 3,5oo 4,500 Export animal (average) 12,500 5,5oo 6,000 8,000 8,000 10,000 10,500 Heavy export anima.l 15,ooo 7,000 7,000 9,500 9,000 10,000 11,000 cows (average) 9,500 5,009 5,ooo 5,5oo 6,000 6,5oo 7,5oo Heavy sterile cows 13,500 6,000 6,000 7,500 7,000 7,000 8,000 Old cull cows 5,000 2,500 2,500 3,500 2,5oo 3,000 3,5oo l1 Producer prices for previous years are not available. Source: Directorate of.Livestock. ....... 0 ...... - 108 - Table 7. 7: CHAD -- MFAT PRICES ( CFAF per kg) 1969 1970 A. Wholesale Beef Prices, Carcass Weight Export Meat Normal quality 85 95 Premium 100 120 Meat for domestic consumption 75 75 B. Retail Prices Modern Shops (Fort I.amy) Beef filet 920 900 Beef steak 580 570 Other 250 340 Mutton (leg of lamb) 520 560 African Market Fort I..a.my Beef filet 400 .500 Beef with bone 12.5 1.50 Rural areas Beef with bone 75 100 Ml.tton 100 130 Sources: Ilirectorate of Iavestock. Meat Export Firm PRODEL.  1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 c1 1972~ Head Taxes 386.7 293.6 223.6 146.8 150.3 250.0 150.0 Export TaxesD L1.0 46.0 65.2 57.9 95.3 71.0 70.0 l"er:1t Inspection Ta.x 42.6 79.2 47.0 34-7 29.5 35.o 25.0 Livestock Service Revenues 36.6 36.4 39.0 16.0 21.0 40.0 40.0 Slaught,erhouse Fee 2.1 1.0 1. 7 1.:9 1.2 2.0 2.0 TOTAL 509.6 456.2 376.5 257.3 297.3 398.0 287 .o As Percent of Govern~ent Revenues 5.7 4.9 3.9 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.2 Revised. Estimate. Tentative mission estimates. Source: Budgets and mission estimates.  Table 7. 9: CHAD-- DEVEIDPMPNT OF THE LIVP:5TOCK SERVICE BUOOET, 1961-72 ....... ....... 0 ( CFAF millions) Salaries for Salaries for Purchase Budget of Livestock Service Years --~ Permanent local Staff Compensation for Field Work - Occasional Labourers .... Operating Funds ___ of Vacc1.nes ,, TOTAL in Percentage of the Total - Government Budget -- 1961 74.1 5.0 6.8 21.0 15.0 121.9 2.29 1962 79.3 n.a.a 6.8 22.0 15.0 123.1 2.19 1963 81.2 n. a.£1 10.8 20.2 15.0 127.2 1 .96 1964 81.3 a.o 10.7 2$.5 15.5 141.0 2.26 1965 81.8 8.0 13.0 34.3 16.4 153.5 1.86 1966 86.0 8.0 13.0 41.5 16.4 164.9 1.57 1967 88.3 7.0 11 .o 35.5 16.4 158.2 1 • .51 1968 84.3 7.0 11.0 41.1 17 •.5 160.9 1.43 1969 91.0 7.0 11 .o 29.6 14.8 15:3.4 1.• 29 1970 92.0 7.0 11.0 30.1 19.0 1.59. 1 1 .19 1971 102.6 4.? 12.4 28.9 19..5 168.1 1 .17 1972 90.3 2.7 7.1 .,6 - 123.7 0.93 a Funds for compensation of field work are included in sal.aries for permanent local staff. Source: Directorate of Livestock.  - 111 - Table 7.10: CHAD -- PRODUCTION COTTON SEED AND COTTON LINT (metric tons) Campaign Cotton Seed Cotton Lint YieldL! (in%) 1960/61, 97,864 34,581 35.3 1961/62 46,688 16,467 35.3 1962/6~ 94.307 33,495 35.5 1963/~ 104,881 37,483 .35.7 1964/65 99,105 35,743 36.1 1965/66 86,827 31,249 35.9 1966/67 122,856 45,152 36.7 1967/68 102,034 37,848 37.1 1968/69 148,819 55,191 .37.1 1969/1.0 117,035 43,313 37.0 1970/"/l 95,019 35,352 37.2 1971/72 108,000 40,716 37.7 Ll Transformation coefficient of cotton seed into cotton lint. Source: Cotontchad.  ....... ....... Table 7 .ll: CHAD --AREA UND~ THE COTTON PRODUCTIVITY PROGRAM N (ha and as a percentage of total area under cotton cultivation) Region 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 Mayo-Kebbi: Acreage 1,193 1,579 2,514 3,170 4,925 8,814 11,754 16,561 19,663 23,439 20,282 25,987 Percentage 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.5 11.6 16.;2 21.7 23.5 27.2 24.5 32.1 Logone occidental: Acreage Percentage 394 - 417 - - - 381 1 70 0.2 119 0.3 1,240 2.6 2,765 6 3,359 7.5 4,868 10.6 4,015 8.1 3,302 6.7 Logone oriental: Acreage 667 853 185 195 80 550 1,en 3,373 4,505 5,296 5,987 3,147 Percentage 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 3.4 6.2 9.4 9.6 10.7 5.6 Tandjile: Acreage 10 45 450 986 2,386 1,026 3,502 5,191 5,344 3,967 Percentage - - 0.1 1.3 3 7.1 3.1 10 14.5 15.5 11 Moyen Chari: Acreage 707 1,263 1,648 1,708 1,330 2, 726 2,567 1,673 3,417 5,266 4,759 5,404 Percentage 1.1 2 2.4 2.7 1.9 4.2 3.7 2.4 4.9 8.3 6.7 7.7 Chari Baguirmi: Acrea~e 52 121 31 Sl 117 Percentage 1 1.9 0.5 0.8 1.9 Salamat: Acreage 335 Percentage 1.9 Total Acreage: 2,961 4,112 4,357 5,499 6,855 13,195 19,839 25,450 34,567 44,091 40 ,4lil. 41, 9~. Percentage: 1 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.3 4.4 6.6 8.5 11.7 14.8 13.4 13.9 Source: ONDR.  Table w • 7.12: CHAD -- IRODUCTlV:ri'Y IROORAM: BI:U!AIIDOWN INPUT COSTS AND FINANCThu (CFAF/ba) 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73./1. ---···-···~--~ Fertilizers 4,W.o 4,146 4,118 4,2.56 .5 ,939 6,230 Price (CAF) 2,476 2,36.5 2,327 2,208 2,628 2,7.51 Transport cost 1,934 1,781 1,791 2,048 3,311 3,479 Pesticides 2,704 2,61.5 3,186 3,196 3,710 3,900 Price (CAF) 2,474 2,340 2,898 2,771 3,260 3,420 Transport cost 230 27.5 288 42.5 4.50 480 Capital charges £or sprayersi£ 434 492 396 333 4.50 300 Interest and other charges .500 6.5J 794 794 94.5 1,07.5 Full costs /.1 8,048 1,906 8,494 8,579 ll,044 & 11,.50.5 &. FED contribution fi 4,000 3,336 2,994 3,0.5.5 .5,11.5 4,0.52 Chad contribution 4,048 4,.570 .5,.500 .5,.524 .5,929 7,4.53 Amount actually paid by producers .5,000 .5,000 .5,.5oo .5,.500 .5,.500 .5,500 Ll Estimates by ~~Rc Z! After 1969 F.ED excluded The 10~ Chad financing of this ite:m to allow to I) (795 CFAF/ha), ti which has varied with in ...... ...... w •"-'-"""''"' and 53 percent 1967/68 rose to 5o percent in recent years. Source: ONDR  Table 7.. 13: CHAD -- ffiODUCTIVITY PROGRAM: ADVANCE TO FARMERS FOR IN:?UT COSTS AND REPAYMENI'S ..... ..... ( CFAF millions ) .1:>- Outstanding 1966/67 % 1967/68 % 1968/69 % 1969/70 % 1970/71 % 1971/72 % cumulative amounts Mayo-Kebbi: Advance 51 .. 6 80.6 98 .. 4 129.0 111.5 141.9 Repayment 50.4 98 78.6 97 86 .. 4 88 110.9 86 105.8 95 130.0 92 50.9 Tandjile: Advance 8.4 4.6 17 .. 5 28.5 29.7 21 .. 8 Repayment 6.7· 80 4.1 89 15 .. 2 87 20.6 72 18 .. 0 61 16.5 76 29 .. 4 Logone occidenta~: Advance 2.. 2 10.9 16.8 26.7 22.0 18.1 Repayment 2.1 95 6.7 61 11.3 67 12.6 47 17.1 78 15 .. 3 85 31.6 Logone oriental: Advance 10.2 14.0 22.4 29.1 32.9 17.3 Repayment 9.3 91 9.7 69 22.4 100 23 .. 9 82 19.7 60 14 .. 2 82 26 .. 7 Moyen Chari: Advance 6.3 2.3 3.4 4.. 3 5.3 10.9 Repayment 4.. 9 78 1.5 65 3.4 100 2.. 2 51 4.8 91 9ol 84 6.6 Mandou1: Advance 2.5 6.0 13.5 24.6 20.9 16.. 0 Repayment 2.0 80 2.6 43 10.7 79 11.6 47 9 .. 2 44 9.1 57 38.3 Chari Baguirmi: Advance 0.. 17 0.17 o.64 Repayment 0.07 41 o.o8 47 o.oo 0 o.. 8 Total: Adwnce 81.2 118.4 172.0 242.4 222.5 226.7 Repayment 75.4 93 103.2 87 149.4 87 181.9 75 174.7 78 194.. 2 86 184.,4 Source: ONDR.  Table 7.,14: CHAD -- REPAYMENT OF THE EQUIPMENT CREDITSGRANrED IN THE COTTON PRODUCING AREA AS OF MARCH 31,1972 (CFAF millions) Mayo- Log one Log one Moyen Chari Kebbi Tandjile occidental oriental Chari Mandoul Baguirmi Total Amount due including arrears 12.0 5.4 17.0 11.2 6.3 32.0 0.78 84.6 Actual repayments 4.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 5.2 o.o 14.5 Per~entage .3.3.0 18.0 7.0 14.0 22.0 16.0 o.o 17.1 Source r ONDR. ...... ...... 1.11  Table 8.1: CHAD -- TRANSPORT TO AND FROM CHAD IN 1970 f.l ...... ...... 0'1 (tons and CFAF millions) ~..<-·~·=· ~-~-~~--~;:::::::::::--~----~~-- Imports Exports T ota 1 Route Tonnage W" Value % Tonnage % Value %= Tonnage - % Value ~ -= ~ ===--m =~===- Transequatorial Route (Pointe Noire) 26,332Q7 16~0 1,314.4 l2o0 24,247.0 4le7 3,203.2 52e4 50,579.7 2209 4s517.6 26.6 Total Nigerian Route 63,41603 38 .. 7 3,522 .. 4 32.5 1,000., 7 1. 8 23 .. 9 0.4 64,417.0 29.0 3,54603 20.9 Via Apapa (Lagos) 63,366.1 38.6 3,519.4 32.4 1,000~7 1.8 23.9 0.4 64,366.8 29.0 3,543.3 20 .. 9 Via Port Harcourt 5o.2 - 3.. o 50.2 3.0 Cameroonian Route (Douala) 21,978.5 13.4 3,298.1 30.3 8,443.3 24.5 1,158.7 19 .. 0 30,421 .. 8 13 .. 7 4,456.8 26 .. 3 Sudanese Route(Port Sudan) 155.2 16.4 0.2 155.2 16.4 Other Ports 40 .. 0 1,670 .. 9 15.4 40 .. 0 1,670 .. 9 9.8 From/to Neighboring Countries 52,001.5 31.7 1,054.6 9e7 24,326,.6 42.0 1,715.7 28.2 76,388el 34.4 2,770.3 16o3 TOTAL 163,924.2 99.8 10,876.9 99.8 58,017.6 ~ 6,101.5 ~ 222,001.9 ~~ 16,978.4 100.0 L1. Figures rounded. Source: Ministry of Planning: 11 Route Ngaoundere-Moundou 11 (October 1971) pp. 12, 14. Staff computations.  Table B.2t CHAD - SHIFTS Dl TRAFFIC OM MlDllWIJTIS, 1963-70 {llltrt.rl.c tons) ROUTE Ali'llllual Rate of Rate of Rate of Tonnag_~-~-·L-'f2~-- % Growth Tonnage 't Ton~_ '%. Growth % Growth rransi"quatorial Route Petroleum Producte Cotton 6,800 - 5.9 - 20,100 - 13.9 - - 20,200 - 41.6 - 33,000 ~ 52.7 6,800 20,200 4.1 12.3 20,100 33,000 9.8 15.9 Other Products 46,200 39.7 38,200 26.4 12,500 25.8 6,400 10.2 58,700 35.6 44,600 21.5 Total 53,000 45&._ 58,30Q ~0,3, 1.4'%. 32,_£0Q a..! J.2..Jt.Q!l, iL.1 M .a4.ZOO ll...Q. ll..lilll ll..2. k2l "ltg~ri.an Route Petroleum Products Cotton 29,200 - 25.1 - 52,300 - 36.3 - - 2,200 - 4.1 -700 - 1.1 29,200 2,200 17.7 1.3 52,300 700 25.2 0.3 Other Products 19,700 16.9 21,000 14.4 4,000 8.7 3,200 5.1 23,700 14.4 24,200 11.7 Total ~ 42....Q. ~ ~1. §..0% §.....W.. 12,8 !...2Q.2. 2...4 .6.5% ~ ll.!:t. IZ...2.!l!l. .ll..2. 2:&! Benoue Route ·lh Petroleum Products 1,600 1.4 - - - .. .. - - 1,600 1.0 .. - - - - - - Cotton 8,400 17.3 8,400 5.1 Other Products Total 10,300 11,900 8.8 10.2 - - - - - 8,400 - - 17,_) - - - - 10,300 ZQ...JQQ. 6.2 lL.l :::a... croonian Route Petroleum Products Cotton n,a n.a n.a n.a - 1,200 - 2.5 - 14,500 - 2).2 n.a n,a tl • .;:t n.,.. Other Products n.a n.a - 4,800 7.7 n.a 4,800 Total 2,500 u 13,00Q_ 'LJL 27&0/. 1,200 ll 19,300 30.9 ~ l..1M. u J.2...J!lQ. 1..!i...Ji. ~ Total all Routes 116,300 _____ , 100.0 ~ = ~64t 8Q,f! 100.0 ~ ~00 100.0 = Ll Th~ nenouc route wa~ tcmoorarily cloocn in 1970, In 1971, cotton C'!(})ortn on thio route amounted to 10,000 tons, Source: 15. 16. i'finietry of Planning "Route Ne;;:toundcre - Koundou", pp. Data is incomplete. as based on partial census carried out in 1963 and 1970. IBRD Computations. 1-' ..... '-J  1-' 1-' Table 8.3: CHAD -- ESTIMATES OF ROAD mEIGHl' TRAFFIC, 1963-69 co (metric tons thousands) : i  !!lb~e Q:J;,: CHAD -- BREAKDOWN OF TRANSPORT COSTSL1, ON NIDElUA ROUTES, 1971 (CFAF I metric ton) - 1lia Port Harcourt Port fees and reloading charges 6,760 6,360 3,880 6,360 L,ooo 6,880 Transport by railroad 7,040 7,040 6,720 7,040 7,040 6,720 Reloading charges 4,600 4,5oo 3,000 4,6oo 3,560 6,000 Transport by road to Fort Lamy 8,000 s,ooo 8,000 8,000 5,700 8,000 Ferry fee 650 55o 55o 55o 55o 55o TOI'AL 2?,050 26,450 22,150 26,550 20,850 28:150 Via Apapa Port fees and reloading ~barges 6,640 6,240 3,760 6,240 4,080 6,760 Transports by railroad 8,160 8,160 7,640 8,16o 8,160 7,640 Reloading charges 4,600 4,500 3,000 4,6oo 3,56o 6,000 Transport by road to Fort Lamy 8,ooo 8,000 8,ooo 8,000 5,700 8,000 Ferry fee 550 55o 55o 55o 550 550 TOl'AL 27l950 27z450 22z950 27.z55o 22lo5o 28,950 Ll Excluding taxes and commission fees. Source: Mory and Cie (Fort Lamy, March 1971) ..... ..... \C) - 120 - Table 8 .. 5: L1. CHAD--COTTON TRANSPORT COST ON MAIN EXTERNAL ROUTES,l971 (CFAF/metric ton) ort Route Archamba:u.lt Gore Moundou. Leve Bongor _TransEquatorial Route Road Transport 9,515 . 7,924 9,560 14,363 14,123 ReloadiDg~ & Transit 905 905 905 905 905 (Bangui) River Transport 3,993 2,458 1,946 1,854 1,854 Railroad Transport 2,?75 2,075 1,875 1,805 1,805 i c'~o 1,500 1 zSOO 12500 1 2500 Total ~1a4laa · . . l~..e§2 IS..ta6= [! zo..Iaz Benoue Route Road Transport 12,107 9,012 7,?.45 2,osa 5,365 Reloading (Garoua) ) 12,21a 12 2"13 12,218 12,218 12,218 River Transport ) ' 24,325 21,230 19,463 14,276 17,583 ==:==== eamm:::n::= ======== ====== ====== DoualA Route Road Transport 12' 107 9,012 7,245 2,058 5,365 Reloading & Transit (Garoua) 750 750 750 750 750 Transport 9,664 9,664 9;664 9,664 9,664 Transit (Be1abo) 610 610 610 610 510 Railroad Transport 3,465 3,465 3,465 3,465 3,465 Transit (Douala) 2z342 2,342 22342 2 2 342 22 342 Total 28,938 25,843 24,076 18,869 22,196 ==r:n:u:s== ====== =====s:: ====== ===•=== Ma~diguri Road Transport 11,267 13,310 11,805 7,387 6,452 Reloading ( Ma!ldiguri) 15z394 15,394 15 2394 15!394 · 15z394 Total ~6,661 28, 7o4 '27 '199 22,781 221140 . ====•=:au::: =·=·== ==••ta= ====== ==·==== Ll Excluding insurance and port fees. Source:Ootontohad (Fort.Lamy, January 1972).  Table 8.6: CHAD -ROAD TRAEPORT NEW TARIFFS E.FFECTIVE MARCH 16, 1972 (CFAF metric ton) Fort La~q Dongor Pals Moundou Fort Archambault Doba GAROUA General Merchandise 9,000 5,265 4,095 6,845 9,000 n.a. Iron Bars & Iron Sbeetsf.! 8,75o 4,500 3,800 6,5oo 8,750 n.a. Wheat 7,500 4,000 3,000 5,300 7,500 n.a. Salt 8,500 4,500 3,5oo 6,250 8,5oo n.a. Cement 8,000 4,5oo 3,500 6,000 B,ooo n.a. BANGUI General Merchandise 18,200 15,275 13,585 9,425 9,425 9,425 Iron Bars 18,200 1),500 15,275 11,500 10,200 - 9,425 9,425 9,425 Wheat 1,000 7,000 7,000 Salt 16,000 14,000 12,000 8,000 8,ooo 8,000 Cement 16,000 14,000 12,000 8,000 B,ooo 8,000 Wood 17 ,ooo 11,000 10,500 8,000 8,000 8,000 li'CRr LA.MY General Mer.cbandlse ) Iron Products ) - 3,800 5,750 7,000 1,000 6,5oo Wheat Cement, Salt ) - 2,5oo 4,000 . 5,000 5,ooo 4,500 Ground.rmt 011 ) - 3,250 5,200 6,500 6,500 5,850 - L!. h:cluding taxes. 1-' N 1-' Source: Ministry o:r Transports, Decree Ho 83/PR/rPr/DT. - 122 - Table 9.1: CHAD -- PRICE DmEX FOR EUROPEAN CONSUMP!ION AT FORT LAMY January 1964 • 100 January 19S8 • 100 1968 .1969 1970 1971 1968 1969 1970 1971 JamJary 120.1 123.6 131.5 140.1 165.1 170.0 180.8 192.6 February 121.6 122.6 133.6 lhl.O 167.2 168.5 183.7 193.9 March 120.9 123.5 134.2 lhl.6 166.2 169.8 184.5 194.7 April 120.4 123.8 135.5 1.43.5 165.6 170.2 186.3 197.3 Miy 121.0 125.5 136.4 14S.o 166.4 172.7 187.6 199.4 June 121.7 126.0 137.4 146.1 167.4 173.3 188.9 200.9 July 123.5 127.3 137.7 146.5 169.8 175.0 189.3 201.4 August 122.8 126.6 138.4 146.7 168.8 174.1 190.3 201.7 September 120.8 126.6 139.5 146.8 166.0 174.1 191.8 201.9 October 120.7 126.8 138.9 147.9 166.0 174.4 191.0 203.4 November 121.7 129.4 140.1 148.1 167.3 177.9 192.6 203.6 December 122.4 130.3 140.5 149.0 168.3 179.2 193.2 204.9 Source: Direction de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.  - 123 - Table 9.2: CHAD -- HUCE INDEX FOR EUROPEAN CONSUMPtiON AT FORT LAMY (January 1964 = 100) December December December Category 1969 1970 1971 General Index 1.30 • .3 140.5 149.0 Food 140.0 151.4 159.4 Water, Electricity, Gas 10.3.1 100.9 104.2 Domesticity 128.1 1.30.1 1.30.1 Clothing, Laundry 10.3.7 116.4 12.3.7 Personal effects 128.1 1.39.4 148.5 Transport 119.7 14.3.9 16.3.5 other 1.38.0 14.3.6 1.38.1 Source: Direction de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. - 124 - Table 9.3: CHAD --lJRBAN (S:Iv!IG) AND AGRICULTlJRAL (SMAG) ·MJNIMUM WAGE SCALES, 1954-70 ( CFAF per hour ) S MIG SMAG Date of Decrees lst 2nd Jrd lst 2nd 3rd Zone Zone fl. Zone /.I. Zone Zone L1 Zone f1 l/9/195L A.5o ?.00 6.So ?.So 6.oo S.oo 11/7/1956 10050 ?gOO 6.50 9.00 6.oo s.so 11/6/1957 12 .. 00 10.,00 10.00 s.so l!/llt/1959 lS .. oo 12.50 13.00 11.00 2/lL/1964 22 .. 00 20.00 18.50 9/3/1970 30,00 26.00 /1:.. After 1970, the entire country was covered by the single SMIG category. ~ Third zone category abolished in 1957. L1 After 1964, the entire country was covered by the single SMAG category. Source: Rapport Annual 1970, Direction du Travail.  Table 10.,1: CHAD _,_ REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF MEDICAL PERSONNEL, 1970 Numbers Total Population per: Prefectures Population Doctors Nurses Midwives Doctors Nurse Midwives Baths 2 28 3 328,472 164,000 11,714 109,000 B.E.T .. 1 22 2 . 83.228 83.,228 3,783 41,614 Biltine 1 13 5 143.,151 143.,151 11.,011 28,630 c. Baguirmi 26 219 26 446,100 17,157 2,030 17,157 Guera 2 23 3 176,442 88,220 7,5oo .66,614 Kanem 1 28 6 188,649 188,649 6, 739 31,361 Lac 1 10 127,615 127,615 12,760 L. Occidental 6 77 9 210,843 35,140 2,738 23,427 L. Oriental 2 36 4 261.889 130,944 7,274 65,472 Mayo Kebbi 3 57 4 539,314 179,171 9,461 134,828 Moyen Chari 6 97 10 415,028 69,171 4,278 41,502 Ouaddai 5 60 4 344,007 68,801 5,666 86,001 Salamat 1 14 3 93,215 93,215 6,658 )1,071 f-..1. Tandjile 1 24 2 253,012 253,012 10,542 126,506 N lJ1 ' TorAL 708 81 3~,610, 9.§.? 62,250 _?,100 44,580 Source: Enfance et Jeunesse, Plan_de Deve1oppem~~' November 1971. - 126 - Table 10.2: CHAD -- MEDICAL CARE, 1970 Population examined: by mobile teams 1,422,000 by permanent centers 96,308 Medical care: number of patients 285,249 number of visits 353,905 hospitalized patients 222 Inoculations: anti-smallpox 1,182,215 anti-yellow fever 228,809 anti-tuberculoses 307,874 anti-measles 190,291 Source: Enfance, Jeunesse et Plan de D6veloppement, November 1971.  - 127 - T?ble 10e3: CHAD - PRI!-;p.RY EDUCATION EJ:lROLLi"'!ENT 19:59/60-1969/70 PUBLIC EDUCATION __ ,_ ,:;cllool Year C?I C?2 CEI CE2 CMI CM2 'IO'!AL Girls (%) + ill ............... 1959-60 23.650 8 538 5~~6~9 3e836 2 • '7(-~ I.;,.. 2.230 46.672 9,2 1960-61 33-525 11913 7~C42 5·7~9 2.E23 3.282 64.304 i0,3 1961-62 43 .. )92 1LJ.• 984 9·423 5·904 4.532 4·376 63.261 'i1d 1962-63 47.257 19.6~i 12.337 7.789 5·775 5·581 98.951 12,2 1963-64 56 .. 181 20.906 15.255 c ,. .("148 / 7-~28 7.021 ~16_,539 13,7 196l;.-65 59-638 23.914 16 .. 321 12.; 98 99" ~ -· 0 8.526 ~29.593 15,0 1965....66 (4,.)131 .615 17.751 , 3.061 10.477 ·w~ 751143.602 16,2 1965-67 62.163 23 .. 327 ~9.322 ~4. 325 11·5'~5 13.307 14Cl.964 13,2 196)'.... E:8 G6. 3.57 2;3.;156 21.304 14.f76 I 2.CS\~ 13.670 "157-257 19,2 1968-'5·9 66.346 2S: .962 21.154 1).024 12.6C:.O ~4.338 ~5:?·424 2~,3 1969-70 )6.066 27.781 20 •.,!21 14 .eo1 12.6)'6 , 6.161 ~4 7.. 926 22,2 PRIVATE EDUC..I\T ION ( CA'I'riOLIC, mor.ESTA'i-IT) 19'" ))'-..:;v 1'1"\ 3.320 1.599 863. 497 359 259 6.897 24,4 1960-61 4· i93 1.904 1.161 769 410 378 8.815 ~5.~- 1961-62 5·370 2.0.f4 1.338 837 595 449 10.633 30,2 1962-63 6. 728 2.490 1.575 1.082 674 534 13.083 33,2 J963-h4 B.139 3-316 2.036 1.340 962 760 16 .. 533 33,1 1964-65 8 .. 684 3.568 2.414 1.640 1.115 868 18.289 32,8 ~2 8 _, ' 1965-66 8.909 4.074 3 .. 017 1e995 1.381 984 20.360 1966-67 8 .. 430 4·897 3.953 2.838 1·909 1.464 23.491 32,9 1967-68 8. ~05 4·296 3-519 2.356 1.oS46 1.320 21.442 34,9 1968-69 6.519 4.098 3oi98 2.469 '1.839 1.347 19·4i0 28,3 1969-10 3.. 324 1.983 1·936 1·495 1.211 1.192 11 .141 43,0 Source: Enfance, Jeur1esse et Plan de Deve1oppement, i~ovembe:.r 1971.  - 128 - Table lO.lu CHAD-- FIRST DEVELOPHENT PLAN (1966-70)... FROVISIONS AND OUTCOME ( CFAF millions) Original Revised Outcome Sector Amount % Amount l Amount % Production 19 1 969 ~ 12 1 678 48 .. 4 12 2,229 47.9 Rural Development 13,329 28.4 8,328 31.8 7,599 23.0 Industry & Handicraft 5,594 11.9 3,991 15.2 4,829 18.5 }'lining and Energy 1,046 2.2 359 L.4 101 0.4 Economic Inf'rastruettire 16,349 34.8 7,605 29.1 7,045 26.9 .. Transport 14,454 30.7 6,288 24.0 6,082 23.2 Communications 1,36h 3.0 51lt 2.0 243 0.9 Tourism 531 1.1 803 3.1 601 2.3 Domestic Trade 119 0.5 Social Infrastructure 10,475 22.2 5,618 21..4 ~ 6/ll?? 23.6 Education 5,092 10.8 2,247 8 .. 6 2,031 7.. 8 Health, Social Welfare 1,663 3 .. 5 1, 736 6.6 1, 773. 7~2 Urban Development 3, 720 7.9 1,635 6.2 2,373 9.1 Studies and Researeh 220 ~ 287 1 ...1 410 1.6 TOTAL 47,013 100.0 26,188 100.0 26,161 100.0 ==::.:=:.:=::: ===-=:.;:::: ====== --~-- =====:: ===== Sources: Ministere du Plan et des Aides Exterieures, and IBRD wission calculations.  Table 10.7: Cl-1.AD - -llNES'rJ:,!E?.i'T TAEJETS OF > ~·CO:JJ PLAIJ 17?l-2C ~'<'" ECONOi'•:Ic SECTORS (CFAF billions and percent) Spontaneous Investments Non-SEontaneous Investments Priority I Priority II Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent I & II Percent Total Percent Production 12.56 100.0 28.73 57.8 16.01 27.2 44.74 4l.2 57.30 47.3 Agriculture 2.68 21.3 11.56 2.;3.3 9.85 16o7 21.41 19.7 24.09 19.9 Livestock 4.95 39.4 4.95 10.0 3.. 31 5~6 8.26 7.6 13 .. 21 10.9 Fisheries - - 0.20 0.4 - - 0.20 0.2 0.20 0.,2 Forestry - - 1.25 2.5 - - 1.25 1.2 1.25 1.0 Mining Water supply - - o.5o 1.0 - - o.5o o.5 o.5o o.'4 - - 1.42 2.8 2.83 4.8 4.25 3.9 4.25 3.5 Electricity - - 3.59 7.2 Q.02 o.1 3.61 3.3 3.61 3.0 Industry 4.. 93 39-3 5.26 10.~ - - 5.26 4.8 10.19 8.4 Economic Infrastructure - - - 16.26 32~ 32.06 54.J 48.32 44.4 48.32 39.8 Roads - - 15.20 30.6 27.50 46.6 42.70 39.3 42.70 35.2 Waterways Air Transport - - - - - - - - 0.76 3.42 1.3 5.8 0.76 3.42 0.7 3.1 0.76 3.42 o.6 2.,8 Post & Telecommunications - - 0.96 1.9 0.38 o.6 1.34 1.2 1.34 1.1 Tourism - - 0.10 0.2 - - 0.10 o.1 0.10 Ool Social Infrastructure - - 4.71 9.5 8.73 14.8 13.44 12 .. 4 13.44 11.1 General education - - 1.64 3e) 6.48 11.0 8.12 i. 5 8.12 6.7 Professional Training - - 0.89 1.8 1.05 1 .. 8 1.94 1.8 1.94 1.,6 Health - - 2.. 02 4.1 - - 2.02 1.9 2.. 02 1.7 Social Affaires - - 0~16 0.3 1.,20 2.,0 1 .. 36 1.2 1 .. 36 1 .. 1 Administration - - - - 2.18 - 3e7 2.18 2.0 2 .. 18 1.8 Source: TOTAL -12.56 100 .. 0 ===== 49 .. 70 - 100,.0 - 58 .. 98 - 100.0 108.68 Plan-cadre pour 1e ~ve1oppement Economique et Social du Tchad au cours de la decennia 1971-80, pp,. III, 18-20, 1 100,.0 ~ 121 .. 24 ,-~ 100.,0 ~ and IBRD mission ca1culationse ~ 1-'  Table 10.8: CHAD --ESTIMATES OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INVESTMENTS BY ~ONOMIC S~TORS 1971-80 (CFAF billions and percent) I 1-' Sectors Public Private Total w N Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Production Agraculture ~ 21.41 Ll.2 19.7 12.56 - 2.68 !22.& 21.3 57.30 24.09 - 47.3 19.9 Livestock 8.26 7.6 1 4.95 .B9.. h 1).21 10.9 Fisheries 0.20 0.2 0.20 0.2 Forestry 1.25 1.2 1.25 1.0 Mining o.5o o.5 o.5o 0.4 Water Supply 4.25 ).9 4.25 J.5 Electricity 3.61 3.3 3.61 ,3.0 Industry 5.26 4.8 4.93 39.3 10.19 8.4 Economic Infrastructure 48.32 hl!d! 48.32 39.8 Roads 42.70 39.3 42.70 )5.2 Waterways 0.76 0.7 0.76 o.6 Air Transport 3-42 3.1 3.42 2.8 Post and Telecommunications 1.34 1.2 1.34 1.1 Tourism 0.10 0.1 0.10 0.1 Social Infrastructure 13.44 12.4 13.44 ~ General Education 8.12 7.5 8.12 6.7 Professional Training 1.94 1.8 1.94 1.6 Health 2.02 1.9 2.02 1.7 Social Affairs 1.36 1.2 1.36 1.1 Administration TorAL - 2.18 108.68 ~ 100.0 12.56 100.0 - 2.18 121.24 1.8 100.0 Percent 89.6 ==== ==== 10.4 ==== 100.0 source: Plan-Cadre pour le Dcveloppement Economique et Social du Tchad au cours de la Decennia 1971-80 PP• III, 18 - 20, and IERD mission e:-:-tirr:~c::-.  - 133 - Table 10 .. 9: CHAD--FIRST PRIORrrY INVE3TMENI' PROGRAM BY SECTORS & f'ROJlOC:TS,l97l-80 Sector & Project Percent Transport Interior Roads Exterior Links Agriculture 20.5 Cotton Productivity Gum Arabic Industry Sugar Processing Cane Prod. Town Banda Processing Industries New Industries (Soap, Fish, Matches) Exiating and new Abbatoirs Existing Peanut & Oil Factories Livestock 10.1 Animal Health Wells Research & Training Assale Production Public Utilities 10.1 Electr:ieity (of which Ft.Lamy CFAF 3.5 bil) Water Supply (of which Ft.La.my CFAF 1.2 bil) Education s.o Retraining of ~eachers Technical Training Teacher Training, College Construct. Health &Welfare 4.4 Hospitals Rural Health Dispensaries Maternity Clinics Miscel. Health Welfare Fishing & Forestry 3.0 Mining Research 1.0 Tourism 0.2 TOTAL 100.0 ====== Sonrce: Plan-Cadre pour le Dflveloppement Economique et Social du Tchad an cours de la decennie 1971-80, PP• III, 6-11; and IBRD estimates.