Rwanda - Recent economic development and prospects (Vol. 2 of 3) : Annexes

Report No. 422a-RW Recent Economic Development FILE COPY and Prospects of Rwanda (in Three Volumes) Volume 11: Annexes July 24, 1974 Eastern Africa Region Not for Public Use Document of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Development Association This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. OXJRRENCY EQUIVALENTS AND UNITS Currency Unit Rwandese Franc (RwF) Through December 1971 US$ 1.00 RwF 100.00 December 1971 through February 1973 US$ 1.00 RwF 92.10 February 1973 through January 1974 RwF Floating with Belgian Franc November 1973 Trade conversion factor US$ 1.00 82.90 Since January 1974 US$ 1.00 92.80 FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 TABLE OF COi EN,EUS An 1. ]Phyi cal ~Features A:nex 2 -Agricul.ture Annex 3 - duction and) T.aininia Appendix 1i h Exising n Propose EduS i~cation Sysion:. (Ci:u vt) App;rndix 2 Cos and Finacing Appndix 3 L. Exte.ral Assistnce Appe-ndix ) I PriRary ducation reJorm (Table-) App,nem'J I ChTorrt Anneox 5 - De:opment; P-lan:in Appnd:i.x 1. - Orgar.ization Chart This report is based on the findings of a mission that visited Rwanda in October- November 1973. The mission was comnosed of Attila S6nmez (mission chief) Roger Key (economist), Georges Kevers (consultant), Hubert Oldenhove (consultant), Cornelius van Dilck (consultant), J6rome Chevallier (planning specialist), Jean-Frangois Bauer (tourism expert). Sunport to the mission was extended by Mohamadou Diop (Young Professional). 斗， ANNE X 1 Page PHYSICAL FEATURES 1. Rwanda is a small landlocked country lying just south of the Equator between the first and the third parallels. It covers 26,340 square kilometers, roughly the same area as Belgium, and borders Uganda to the North, Tanzania to the East, Burundi to the South and Zaire to the west. The shortest route from Rwanda border to the Indian Ocean is 1,380 kilometers long, from Rusumo to Ikusule in Tanzania by road and thence to Dar-es-Salaam by rail. ibe shortest route to the Atlantic Ocean stretches over 3,250 kilometers and involves the use of three different modes of transport (road, waterways and rail) in three different countries (Burundi, Zaire and Angola). Most of the merchandise traffic takes the route from Kakitumba through Kampala by road (580 kms) and then to Mombasa by rail (1210 kms). 2. Except for the plains in the eastern part, Rwanda is a broken country, with high mountains, deep valleys, lakes and marshes. Th , climate is equatorial, with two rainy seasons and moderate range of temperature. However, climate varies markedly from one place to another, depending mainly on altitude. Four natural regions may be distinguished from East to West: (1) The Eastern Plains 3. This is a relatively level area, rising to the west with low hills and broad valleys, and altitudes averaging 1,300 meters. The rainfall ranges from 700 to 1,000 mm annually rising with altitude, with a marked irregularity. The landscape is one of wooded savannas, interspersed with lakes and marshes, teeming.with game in the Kagera National Park, and still infested by tsetse fly. (2) The Central Plateau 4. The Central Plateau extends roughly from Ruhengeri and Byumba in the NOrth to Butare and the Burundi border in the South. Kigali, the capital, lies just at the limit between the Eastern Plains and the Central Plateau. The plateau is deeply indented by numerous valleys with impeded drainage and flat marshy floors. Altitudes range from 1,500 to 2,000 meters. Average annual temperatures are about 25 degrees C, and rainfall 1,250 mm, both figures varying considerably with altitude. The landscape is one of steep .hills, studded with bananas and coffee-tree groves, scarred by erosion gullies and covered with terraced fields; the valley floors are intensely cultivated wherever a simple ridge-and-ditch network can achieve sufficient drainage. (3) The Western Divide 5. The Western divide makes up the Congo-Nile watershed. Its average elevation is about 2,700 meters, with a number of peaks reaching 3,000 meters. Rainfall is heavy, averaging 1,500 mm and increasing towards the south. Most of Rwanda's remaining natural forests are in this rugged range. On the western ANNEX 1 Page 2 part of the divide the Lake Kivu, li part of the divide the Lake Kivu lies at an elevation of 1,450 meters. The lake's magnesium waters are almost devoid of life. It is bordered by a belt averaging 40 kilometers in width that makes up the western slopes of the divide. From Gisenyi to Cyangugu the landscape is one of ridges sharply cut by torrents that erode deeply during the rainy months and dry up quickly during the dry season. Both western and eastern slopes are intensely culti- vated, unlike the upper levels. (4) The Northern Highlands 6. The Northern Highlands extend from Gisenyi in the,west to Byumba in the east. They consist mainly of lava plateaux and the towering Virunga Volcanoes, five of which stand within Rwanda or on the Zaire border. Annual rainfall averages 1,250 mm. Byumba, at an elevation of 2,235 meters, receives 1,450 mm in average. Considerable erosion results from steep slopes being constant cultivated. Large marshlands occupy valley floor filled-in by peat. Lakes, water-falls and volcanoes are extremely scenic. ANNEX 2 Page 1 AGRICULTURE General 1. Rwanda covers an area of 15600 km2 and enjoys favorable ecological conditions for agriculture. Annual rainfall is relatively high, except in the eastern part of the country, and is generally well distributed throughout the year because of the existence of two rainy seasons. The fertility of soils ranges from average to good, and even excellent for volcanic soils. 2. The area suitable for agriculture is about 50% of the country; the remaining half is covered by lakes, forests, marshland, hunting reserves and other land unsuitable for cultivation. It is cultivated that pastures occupy 13%, and crop area 37% of total land (Table 1). Table 1: LAND USE IN WRANDA Thousand ha. % of Total Total area 2560 100.0 Lakes 128 5.0 Marshes, forests, rivers, parks & other reserved 655 25.6 Land unsuitable for cultivation /1 503 19.6 Total non-cultivable /2 1286 50.2 Total cultivable 1274 49.8 under cultivable (export crops) /3 (36) (1.5) pastures 340 13.3 /1 Sharp slopes and/or rock land. Estimated on the basis of lithological map and planimetric measurements of Rwanda carried out by the Ter- vueren Royal Museum in Belgium. /2 Assuming 80% of marshland can be drained, some 67,000 ha more land would be cultivable. /3 Coffee, tea, pyrethrum, quinquina and cotton cultivation. Source: Data provided by Ministry of Planning and Natural Resources. ANNEX 2 Page 2 3. Two harvests per year can be obtained on most of the land and a third one is possible on the drained marshland. The practice of fallow is being neglected as a result of population pressure. All observers agree that over-grazing is widespread. Cultivation of slopes without soil- retention and conservation measures, results in erosion of top soil. In the long run, therefore, the country faces the problem of soil exhaustion. 4. The yields for subsistence crops are low due to the rudimentary agricultural techniques. Only manual tools are used for cultivation, the principal one being the hoe. No mineral fertilizer is applied for subsistence production, and organic fertilizers are used when not wasted for bananas or other household crops only. As a consequence, about 98% of the cultivated land is used for the production of subsistence crops. 5. The agricultural extension is weak; the number of qualified agronomers is insufficient. In 1972 the Ministry of Agriculture had 1522 agents of which 1360 did not have adequate training for their job. They also received low salaries and had no means of transport for an effective extension activity. 6. Agriculture accounted for 63% of the GDP in 1972, compared to 76% in 1964. Subsistence production represented 58%, while the cash crops accounted for 5% of the 1972 GDP. Value added in agriculture grew by 4.7% in 1968-1972 in constant prices. The "Paysannats" 7. "Paysannats" are settlements, organized by government or outside agencies by providing some basic infrastructure, land and some extension service. The settlers are given advice as to the basic cash crop to cultivate and the seeds to use. They receive an allotment of 1-1.5 ha located alongside a central track which constitutes the center of the settlement. 8. At the end of 1972 some 33,400 families were settled in the paysannats. About 75% of the paysannats produced coffee as main crop, and 16% pyrethrum. Between 1970 and 1972 some 6,000 families were settled, representing 30,000 individuals or about 10% of the population increase in the meantime. The settlements realized since independence have been financed mostly by the FED. 9. Although no detailed economic analysis of paysannats has been made, on the whole they seem to be sound investment. Money income in paysannats seems to be higher than the average of the country. There is however no noticeable difference in the nutritional conditions. Higher money incomes are due to the introduction and supervised cultivation cash crops like coffee, tea and pyrethrum. For subsistence cultivation, the same crops and techniques as elsewhere in the country are being utilized and productivity is therefore low. ANNEX 2 Page 3 I. Subsistence Food Crops 10. The production estimates for 1972 and projections for 1976 and 1981 are given in Statistical Appendix, Table 8.2. Production estimates must be taken as indicating a range rather than precise measurements. The differences between the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Plan- ning figures for 1970 and 1971 illustrate this problem. What can be said, with some assurance, is that over the last 5-6 years the subsistence food production kept pace approximately with the population growth and, probably per capita consumption has increased by about 0.5-1% p.a. As the culti- vation expanded to less and less fertile lands, and to fields with higher slope, without any widerspread improvement in the techniques, this meant not only lower returns to effort but also a progressive depletion of the soil resource. 11. Part of the subsistence production is marketed in the local markets in order to secure money income and to avoid storage for which the peasant is ill equipped. Therefore, the prices fluctuate considerably during the year. These fluctuations affect deeply the income and consumption of the producer because he usually sells his products at harvest time when the prices are lowest. In case of scarcity due to unfavourable weather or infestation or simply to reach the next harvest, the peasant must repurchase on the local market at much higher prices. A stabilization of prices would increased the revenue of the producer and encourage production. Proposals to this effect have been made in the country and a small-scale experiment carried out in 1969 with Swiss assistance, with apparently some success (Trafipro cooperative). A countryside undertaking should follow up this experiment. It would require an initial external assistance. 12. There is considerable scope for increasing the yieds in food production. In export crops the average yields are much more satisfactory than in subsistence food production. The difference seems to be due entirely to the more systematic and sustained extension effort that goes into the production of export crops. In paysannats where some supervision was provided, the results have been encouraging (Table 1). Generally the yields in research stations are double or triple of the national average, indicating the range of possible improvements in the long run. ANNEX 2 Page 4 Table 2: FOOD CROP YIELDS (1967-69) (MT/ha.) Research Station Pilot Paysannat National (ISAR) (Muherso) Average Beans 2.6 1.7 0.9 Peas 1.5 - 0.8 Sajor 2.0 1.8 0.8 Groundnuts 3.4 1.6 0.8 Maize 5.4 1.5 1.0 Sorghum 5.0 1.9 1.2 Potatoes 25.0 8.0 6.5 Sweet Potatoes 15.0 13.8 8.0 Cassava 22.0 12.8 6.8 Bananas 27.5 - 12.0 Source: Data provided by the Rwandese Authorities. II. Export Crops 13. Coffee: In 1972 coffee production represented 3% of GDP and about 50% of export revenues. The same year the export taxes on coffee represented about 5% of the ordinary revenues without taking into account the contribution of OCIR to financing Government expenditures. It is also to be noted that 1972 was a particularly unfavorable year for coffee production. 14. Coffee is cultivated everywhere in the country except in the eastern plains where the rainfall is not sufficient. The soils with volcanic residues constitute the most productive lands. Rwanda produces Arabica type of coffee with a quality comparable to the mild Arabica produced in Central America. A small quantity of robusta is produced in the Bugarama plain, which is the Rwandese part of the Ruzizi Valley. Table 8.1 in Statistical Appendix shows the area, production and yields of coffee between 1958 and 1972. Between 1959 and 1963 the yields per tree and per ha fell. Thereafter, the yields have increased (Table 3), but in 1972, they are still below the level of the late 1950's. ANNEX 2 Page 5 15. The marketing and quality control of coffee is assured by the Office des Cultures Industrielles du Rwanda (OCIR). All production of coffee fruit is depulped by the producers in the common depulping centers which are set up and maintained with the assistance of OCIR. The parchment coffee is sold to the licenced merchants at the official price. The producer price was 35 RwF per kg between 1966 and 31 March 1973. Since then it is 40 RwF per kg, and it is meant to remain at that level for a period of 5 years. The parchment coffee is then processed and conditioned under OCIR control and exported by the manufacturers. Table 3: AVERAGE YIELDS OF COFFEE, 1958-72 Period kg parchment coffee per ha 1958-60 1,060 1961-63 634 1964-66 648 1967-69 748 1970-72 717 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock. Table 4: AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE OF COFFEE, 1968-73 (f.o.b. Mombasa) Years cts/lb 1968 34.8 1969 33.6 1970 47.3 1971 36.1 1972 39.8 1973 (6 months) 55.0 Source: Data provided by the Rwandese Authorities. ANNEX 2 Page 6 16. The average export price of the Rwandese merchant coffee (f.o.b. Mombasa) has strongly varied during the last years, following the fluctua- tions of the world markets (Table 4). In late 1972 export quotas were abolished as a result of negotiations on the international coffee agree- ment. However, due to favorable market conditions the prices remained relatively high, and medium term prospects are good. Rwanda plans to take advantage of the world market conditions by intensifying the production in the areas most suitable for coffee cultivation and by increasing yields. 17. OCIR assists the coffee growers by supplying insecticides and pruning tools and extends credit on a small scale to growers' cooperatives. It has an extension work force of about 400 persons, better trained and better organized than the extension workers of the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Social Affairs. They work on coffee growing and depulping demonstration and counselling exclusively, without any involvement in other commodities than coffee. 18. Institut of Agronomical Research of Rwanda (ISAR) is engaged in breeding an improved and adapted variety of coffee tree which is being multiplied and distributed to the growers. The new variety yields 30% more product than the existing one. 19. The bulk of the Rwandese coffee is exported to the U.S.A. The prices fetched have been somewhat above the market average because of its good quality and because it reaches the New York market in July- August when stocks are low. III. Diversification 20. The need for diversification has been felt for a long time, and measures have been taken to increase the exports of other commodities than coffee, and to supply greater amounts of local food consumption. 21. The diversification effort was so far directed at bringing under cultivation the uncultivated or undercultivated lands. This requires important amounts of capital investment per unit of cultivable land and a substantial amount of extension effort. Although the results obtained, are not negligible, the future action has to be directed more to increase the yields on lands so far cultivated. Diversification-Subsistence Crops 22. One aspect of the diversification effort is the introduction and expansion of subsistence food crops in order to improve the nutrition and to substitute imports. The following products offer such prospects: ANNEX :2 Page 7 Wheat: This crop is cultivated in the high plateaux of the Congo-Nile divide, where climatic conditions are most favorable. The production has increased from 600 tons to 1,250 tons between 1968 and 1972. Although the bread consumption increased every year and substantial wheat imports have to be made (8500 tons in 1972), there are no plans for further extension.of the production. Rice: Some important programs of drainage and irrigation have been realized with the Belgian and Chinese bilateral assistance and the production has increased from 660 tons in 1968 to 1680 in 1972. Rice cultivation, which takes place in valleys of high altitude, yields 2500 kg of paddy per ha. The Bugarama plain offers better conditions but no programme has been formulated for this region. The Bugarama plain offers also the possibility of cotton, sugar cane and vegetable cultivation. Sugar cane: It is cultivated since 1968 in the Nyabugego Valley. A small sugar extraction unit has also been installed there through Chinese assistance. The production of sugar cane was 300 tons in 1970 and 480 tons in 1972, using 332 ha. of land. The yields and the sugar content are low, the latter being 7%. The Government's objective is to reach 600 ha in 1976 and to increase the yields. Soya: Some 1000 tons of soya were produced in 1972. Despite its interest for the protein supply to the country, the production has not increased since 1970, mainly for lack of marketing mechanism. The Government's objective is to produce 5000 tons in 1976. A multi-purpose oil press facilities could ease the marketing problem. The facilities could also process cotton and sunflower seeds if the plans to develop cotton in Bugesera and sunflower in the marshlands are realized. Diversification-Export Crops 23. The diversification effort for the industrial crops was directed mainly at tea and pyrethrum, which developed especially by opening up new lands to cultivation. 24. Tea: Tea bushes find favorable ecological conditions in Rwanda, especially in drained marshlands. Yields have increased regularly in the last 5 years at the rate of 13% a year (Statistical Appendix, Table 8.10), reaching about 950 kg/ha in 1972. The yields of adult trees (7-8 years) are ANNEX 2 Page 8 estimated at 900-1100 kg/ha on hills and 1500-1800 kg/ha of dried tea in marhslands. As about 1/3 of the plantations are young reees, the yields are expected to rise in coming years. The area under tea cultivation passed from 814 ha in 1963 to 3565 ha in 1972. The area is estimated at 4623 ha at the end of 1973. Table 5 gives the relevant data on tea production. 25. The high cost of drainage of marshlands was justified in the past by expected high yields and reasonably high prices. Rwanda has experienced, however, as all other tea producing countries have, con- siderable price falls since 1967. As medium-term price prospects do not seem encouraging, the investment policies relative to marshland drainage and land use need reconsideration. 26. The distribution of plantations by type of exploitation is given in Appendix Table 8.3; smallholder type of exploitation (48%) and coopera- tives (36%) cover the largest part of the area under tea cultivation. Most of the smallholder plantations have a size of 1/4 of ha. The Government's objective is to increase the area under tea cultivation to about 10,000 ha in 1980 through drainage of marshlands. This increase would accrue to smallholders and cooperatives. 27. At present six tea factories transform tea leaves into processed tea. The development of production so far has been financed for 90% by external assistance (FED and Belgian assistance). Most of the Rwandese tea production is sold on the London market at prices comparable to that of the Uganda tea. Table 5: DATA ON TEA PRODUCTION, 1968-72 Planted Area in Tea Years Area Production Production Yields (ha) (ha) (MT) (kg/ha) 1968 1948 1280 830 648 1969 2316 1470 976 660 1970 2707 1575 1245 790 1871 3705 2144 1819 848 1972 3565 2530 2396 947 Source: Statistical Appendix, Table 8.10 ANNEY 2 Page 9 Table 6: OWNERSHIP OF TEA GARDENS, END OF 1972 Total Area in Not yet in Number area Average Size Production Production/1 (ha) (ha) (ha) (ha) Expatriate farmers 4 492 123 492 State owned "regie" - 102 - 102 - Cooperatives blocs "Pysannats" 807 1272 1.6 1010 262 Smallholder schemes 6317 1699 .3 926 773 Total 3565 - 2530 1035 /1 Young trees. Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock - Annual Report 1972 and mission estimates. 28. Pyrethrum serves for the production of pyrethrin (essential component for the production of natural insecticides). It is cultivated on volcanic soils in the northern Rwanda, at altitudes of 200-2700m. After a decline between 1955 and 1963, the pyrethrum production started to increase and in 1972 some 2340 hectares were cultivated. The production of dried flowers reached 1174 tons in that year (Table 7). Table 7: DATA ON PYRETHUM PRODUCTION, 1969-73 Production of Years Area Cultivated Dried Flowers Yields (ha) (MT) (kg/ha) 1969 860 524 609 1970 1020 556 545 1971 1540 865 560 1972 2340 1174 500 1973 (estimate) 2800 1600 570 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock - Annual Report 1972. ANNEX 2 Page 10 Most of the increase in production is due to the settlement of paysannats financed by the FED. Some cultivation outside the settlement zone is also carried out by small farmers, but it does not represent an important part of the total. 29. The yields in 1972 were relatively low due to heavy rainfall. The pyrethrine content of the Rwandese flowers is quite high; it varied between 1.37% and 1.52% during the last 4 years. 30. In early 1972, a pyrethrine extraction plant was installed in Ruhengeri, financed by UNDP assistance. It produced 37 tons of extract in 1972, with 25% pyrethrine content. The capacity of the plant is 3000 tons of dried flowers or 150-180 tons of extract with 25% pyrethrine content. 31. The construction of the plant improved considerably the position of Rwanda in the world market: The flowers market is extremely unstable as compared to the market for the pyrethrine extract. The pyrethrine prices have remained practically constant for the last 10 years at the level of US$8.6 per pound. Between 1968 and 1971, when Rwanda exported its pyrethrum production in the form of dried flowers, the market conditions were rela- tively favorable. The present outlook for the world pyrethrine market is also favorable as the natural, insecticides will more reasily substitute. petroleum-based insecticides because of the increase in petroleum prices. Moreover, the concern for environmental protection should encourage further the use of natural insecticides. Quinquina 32. The production of quinquina developed in recent years, thanks to the favorable world prices and the action of foreign quinquina in Rwanda. The planted area in 1972 was 970 ha of which 470 were in production. Some 400 ha extension is envisaged in the coming years mainly around the small marshlands in the regions of Gitarama and Butare. A quinquina extraction plant could be built if the production rises from the present level of 250 tons to about 500 tons. Such a plant would improve considerably the price fetched by the quinquina output. Cotton 33. Cotton is produced only in Buagarama plains and did not increase in the recent years. The area under cultivation is about 300 ha with a production of 250-300 tons. Eightly percent of the production is of the first quality and it is exported by the Comite de Gerance de la Caisse de Reserve Cotonniere (Cogerco) based in Bujumbura (Burundi). This situation existed before indendepence and continued since then on the basis of bila- teral agreements. The cotton production of Rwanda is about 5% of that of Burundi and would not justify the setting up of ginning and marketing facili- ties. ANNEX 2 Page 11 IV. Livestock 34. Livestock has always been an important activity in Rwanda and contributes at the present about 5% of GDP. Livestock production is not actually integrated in the agriculture activity. The traditional livestock raising is carried out mainly for social reasons without any particular regard to the economic use of the land and other resources. As a result the productivity of the cattle is low and its contribution to the improvement of soils is non-existent. At the end of 1972, the number of cattle is estimated at 700,420 heads, an increase of 20% since 1968 (Table 8). Table 8: LIVESTOCK ESTIMATES, 1968-72 (Thousand heads) Categories 1968 1919 1970 1971 1972 Bovine 623 676 706 748 742 Goats 400 440 481 512 506 Sheep 123 149 187 188 202 Pigs 31 47 54 58 60 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock - Annual Report 1972. 35. The cattle is mostly of the Ankole variety. The production of 1972 is estimated at 108,000 heads of which 43,000 have been exported. The first constraint on the cattle production in Rwanda is the animal nutrition. It is estimated that about 1,050,000 hectares are available for grazing, representing 1.29 ha per head of bovine. 1/ More than half of the area available for grazing is extremely poor quality land or otherwise unsuitable for grazing. Actual pasture land is probabIly not more than 1/3 ha. per bovine. This results in an extremely heavy grazing in a country where dry season lasts three to four months and where the herds graze freely. 36. Integration of agriculture and animal husbandry could be achieved by cultivating fodder for animals, which would substitute fallow, and by using manure as fertilizer. Suitable varieties of fodder have been selected by ISAR but their extension to farmers did not materialize. The difficulty seems to be that population pressure allows no land for fodder cropping. Some studies also suggest that, despite the traditional knowldge of the 1/ Ten sheep or goats representing one head of bovine. ANNEX 2 Page 12 population in animal husbandry, the preoccupation with basic food production would not leave enough time for proper care to animals, given the present techniques. An extension service that would focus on farm activities as a whole, including the integration of animal husbandry and agriculture, would render valuable services; not only the greatest nutritional deficiency in the country is in animal protein and fats, but also exports to neighboring countries could develop further. 37. Another limiting factor is animal diseases such as East Coast Fever, Cysticercose, Trypanosiamise. The animal heath care is scarce, especially insecticide bathe of animals is rarely practiced. 38. A project for the settlement and ranching is being financed by IDA at Mutara in the northeastern part of the country. This project envisages the eradication of the tse-tse fly in the project area, the study of the tse-tse eradication in the Kagera Park and in the fly-belt in the southeast, the settlment of 5,000 families, and the creation of a ranch of 30,000 bovines for meat production. Belgium, Switzerland, Germany and UNDP finance various activities directed to the extension of selected breed, construction of a dairy, building of a slaughterhouse in Kigali, equipment for the Nyabisindu dairy and the rehabilitation of a network of dipping tanks. V. Horticulture 39. Although still on a small scale, the horticulture is developing in Rwanda. Two projects are being implemented. The first one consists of vegetable cultivation in rural areas by the Ministry of Agriculture to improve the diet of the rural populations. The second project, undertaken by FAO, is directed to the production of vegetables, fruits, flowers and ornamental plants for export. In 1972 some 57 tons of vegetables were exported to Belgium using freight space of the regular Sabena flights. In 1973, in addition to vegetables, some fruits and ornamental plants were exported. In October 1973 the total export was 230 tons. The use of charter flights should expand the volume of exports and reduce the transportation costs. Prospects for development seem to be good, because, in addition to Belgium, the Switzerland agreed to import Rwanda's products in 1973, and negotiations are under with Germany. VI. Agricultural Development Policies Nutrition and Land Use 40. Rwanda has witnessed a Malthusian-type of balance between its population and natural resources. The last general famine was in 1942-44; in three years' time the population decreased by about 40%, part of it due to emigration. For the last thirty years such famine conditions have not ANNEY 2 Page 13 been observed. It is possible that such wide-spread catastrophs will not recur in future, given the size of the xternal assistance, smallholder ownership of land and varied household cultivation. The fact is, however, that the 1967-69 nutrition surveys shows periodic and localized shortfall in food supplies in many places in the country. The population as a whole received 80-85% of the minimum daily requirements of calories, 90-95% of protein. Deficiency in animal protein and fats is, however, much higher and more widespread. 41. In 1967-69, there were several signs of under-nutrition and malnutrition. A recent estimate of health authorities shows that about 10% of deaths in hospitals resulted from sickness related to malnutrition and insufficient nutrition, the rate for children of 1-4 years and for pregnant women being considerably higher than the average. At the expected rate of increase of food production, however, the consumption will reach the minimum requirements for calories and protein, before the end of the decade. For animal protein and fats, the deficiency is considerably more important. The rate and direction of agricultural development will determine when these latter requirements will be met, but it is to be expected that the country will face a nutritional deficit in animal protein and fats for a long time to come. 42. The policy implications of these observations are several. Although the country as a whole did not experience any famine for some time, local and seasonal shortages keep the threat of famine over-present. This threat should be removed as a first priority. 43. Improvement of the transport system will be a bid step forward for the elimination of local shortages. Specific measures are needed, however, to increase food production. This cannot be achieved by bringing more land under cultivation; whatever land can be gained through drainage of marshlands, eradication of the tse-tse fly and some irrigation ii the southeast, can only compensate for land that is presently over-graz d and over-cultivated. The solution lies in increasing yields on presentifarms. This calls for following measures: - incentives to generate marketable surplus, by guaranteeing attractive minimum producers' prices; - increasing, improving and reorganizing extension services; - integrating extension services to embrace the whole range of rural activities rather than concentrating on a few commodities; - demonstrating to farmers simple but improved techniques of production, crop rotation, seed selection, soil preparation, etc. ANNEX 2 Page 14 44. Soil improvement and conservation measures were introduced and extended under colonial rule and trusteeship administration, using often coertion. Since independence these measures have been largely neglected. Ways must be found to revive them. An integrated rural development effort should include the civil works, agronomical and animal husbandry methods to improve the soil. The Rwandese case is an example of cases where the discussion as to the priority of food production and soil conservation is meaningless. They should obviously proceed together and in an integrated fashion. Otherwise, the effort to increase yields will simply be offset by rapidly diminishing productivity of land. Price Policies 45. Rwanda has an explicit price policy with respect to export crops only. Incentives for the production of coffee, tea and pyrethrum have been mostly in kind; providing land, some inputs and extension services. Pricing policies have been often conservative. The absolute level of producers' price for coffee was unchanged between 1966 and 1973. Except for a small subsidy in 1969, the producer was "taxed" throughout the period (Statistical Appendix Table 8.9). This was probably a sound policy in a country where the opportunities for increasing government revenue are so restricted. Also, the non-price incentives were sufficient to encourage the production. 46. In the coming years, however, absolute prices are expected to rise - even if relative price of coffee is to fall - and the question should be considered to what extent it should be reflected in the producers' income. Fixing the price for 5 years had an incentive effect when prices were fluctuating or were following a downward trend, but when a continuous upward movement is observed and expected it may lead to distortions. 47. For pyrethrum, after the establishment of the extraction plan in 1972 the revenue of the producer remained unchanged although the price fetched per kg of dried flower in the world market raised substantially. It seems that high operation costs of the factory, due to an underutilization of the capacity, would be the reason for the fall in the income of the flower growers (Statistical Appendix, Tables 8.15 and 8.16). This is an untenable policy because to fully use the capacity of the factory, the production of flowers must increase, which is only possible if there is sufficient incen- tive to increase the output. At the time of the mission's visit, it was not clear why the pyrethrum growers should not switched to potato production at the expese of pyrethrum, given the prices of the two commodities. Admittedly part of the problem was with the over-valuation of the Rwandese Franc at that time which has been corrected since then. The need, however, for a constant watch and judicious balance is clear for all prices fixed by the government. ANNEX 2 Page 15 48. Part of the incentives to producers can be given In the form of subsidized inputs. At present, 1 RwF/kg of tea leave is collected from tea growers and returned to them in free fertilizers and insecticides. This practice may be preferable to a higher producer price. One way to maximize the advantage of this policy is to generalize the practice within the framework described in paragraph 43 above. Government Administration and Rural Development 49. Government intervention in rural affairs is marked by its great diversity. One may distinguish between several types of areas in which some form of intervention occurs: (1) Areas where there is no well-defined development program. In these areas, which comprise the greater part of the country, rural development is encouraged by agents of the various ministries and in some cases by agents of local authorities (communes). There is practically no coordination of their efforts. The means at their disposal are negligible and any supervision by higher authority is necessarily mininal, because of the lack of well-defined work programs and any effective methods of control. In these areas, some useful work may be accomplished by what are often private or foreign-inspired initiatives. Unfortunately, these remain merely isolated successes and there is no way of following them up, unless the administration as a whole were to take over responsibility. (2) Areas where government action has been concentrated on a particular aspect of agricultural development, and more specifically on promoting a particular crop. Operations of this kind have usually been backed by foreign financial assistance. The tea and pyrethrum programs are typical examples. It is true that the Paysannats (organized small farmer settlements) esta- blished for pyrethrum cultivation also produce potatoes, peas and maize. But these other crops are merely secondary, at least in the eyes of the extenision service, and the main reason for including them is the necessity of crop rotation. The development of marshland for growth of rice and sugarcane is another example of this type of activity. Some of these operations may be regarded as successes. In many cases considerable means have been employed to achieve specific goals. However, they have very little connection with the general activities of the Govern- ment in the development field. Although these particular operations may have resulted in considerable economic benefit, they do not provide an answer that is generally applicable to the problems of develop- ment as far as the mass of the rural population through- out the country is concerned. ANNEX 2 Page 16 (3) Areas where government action, once again with foreign assistance, has been broadened to cover a number of different but complementary aspects of rural develop- ment. A typical example is provided by the paysannats in the eastern and central regions of the country. Operations of this kind have been planned to cover both development of agricultural production (cash crops, subsistence crops, and livestock where appropriate) and the physical development of the area (transportation infrastructure, water supply, housing), marketing of the products and community and development (social centers, schools). As a general rule, these operations have been most successful where the aim has been to settle small farmers on sparesely populated land. They have the advantage of being simultaneously directed toward several different rural development goals. They are still, however, insufficiently integrated into the organization of the country as a whole. Apart from the particular case of the Kibungo prefecture, they have not been successful in creating enough farmer-based local institutions capable of surviving on their own, once external assistance comes to an end. The government departments concerned are not in a position to exercise effective control and where necessary, to take over future responsibility for these programs. 50. As a general rule, the activities of the various ministries, local authorities (communes) and assistance agencies are carried out piecemeal, without being integrated into properly defined programs. The functions and responsibilities of each agency involved are not sufficiently clear. For example, as regards the marketing of the products, the respective roles of the Departments of Agriculture and Social Welfare are not precisely defined. In the case of the extension programs, the ineffectiveness of the agents of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, for reasons already explained, has led the government to ask OCIR to draw up an extension work program for coffee to be carried out by its own agents. This course of action has obvious advantages at the present moment. The extension offices will be especially trained to carry out this program. They will have adequate means at their disposal and will be strictly supervised. If the program is properly carried out, a considerable increase in coffee production can be expected. However, it involves a substantial increase in extension work costs and the possibility of errors and confusion in the field. It would be preferable, in the future, to integrate this program more closely with a global approach to rural development, as soon as the Government has taken measures to this end. ANNEX 2 Page 17 VII. Agricultural Manpower Needs 51. According to the Annual Report 1972 of the Ministry of Agriculture, its agricultural staff in 1972 was as follows: I. University level, higher technician level (Al) Ingenieurs agronomes et forestieres, medicns veterinaires, agronomes Al, conseillers etc. (with the exception of 4 or 5 nationals, all are ex- patriates, paid by external assistance) 41 II. Middle level (virtually all local) /1 a. Agronomes A2, Assistant veterinaires A2 115 b. Infirmiers Veterinaires A3 34 c. Assistants Agricoles A3 58 d. Vulgarisateurs 162 369 III. Lower level (all local) /2 e. Moniteurs 1110 f. Aides Infirmiers 377 g. Gardes forestiers, gardien elevage 99 h. Workers 124 i. Other 5 1715 IV. Non-agricultural staff j. various technicians 52 k. secretarial and accounting staff 21 73 Grand Total 2198 /1 Trained at secondary level. /2 Trained on the job. ANNEX 2 Page 18 52. High Level Manpower: no training at university or post-secondary technician level exists in Rwanda in the fields of agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and veterinary medicine. Virtually all positions at this level are filled by expatriates. Only a few Rwandese students have completed their studies abroad. Requirements at this level for the period 1972-76 are estimated at 60, including replacement of expatriate staff. There are, at present, 135 students studying agronomy and veterinary medicine abroad; 90 of them are expected to complete their studies before 1976 and another 40 soon afterwards. The situation could therefore improve considerably if the government would create sufficient budget positions and induce these students to return to Rwanda. If this is not done, the country would continue to rely on expatriate manpower at little or no expense to the government. In view of the ample supply of foreign scholarships and the high cost of university level training, it is doubtful whether the establishment of a Faculty of Agriculture in Rwanda could be justified. As to post-secondary technician level training (Al) the existing agricultural school in Butare could gradually develop a program at this level, without major additional investments. 53. Upper-Secondary Level: Agricultural technicians and veterinary assistants a A2 level are trained in a 4-year course at upper secondary level in the Ecole d'Agriculture at Butare. The annual output of the school, which is well run with French technical and financial assistance, is 20-25 techni- cians/assistants a year. The school has the physical capacity to reach an output of about 40 a year but would need a few additional staff. According to the Ministry of Agriculture the annual need of the country as a whole would be about 40 newly trained technicians/assistants a year. It bases its estimate on the fact that this category of personnel is used (i) to supervise (at "sector" level) extension workers who are operating at the level of the "communes" (there are 147 communes) and (ii) to supervise agricultural and livestock projects. At present, a major part of the newly trained technicians is absored by the various projects (where financing is easier) and not at "sector" level (at the expense of the limited budget of the Ministry of Agriculture). As a result about 20 of the 47 sectors are headed by extension agents and not by techni- cians. Ideally, an A2 level technician should be appointed not only to each sector but also to each of the communes. The foreseeable needs of the "projects" is about 85 technicians between 1972-76. It is doubtful whether these objectives can be achieved within the five year period 1972-76; budget constraints will probably limit the number than can be hired. A more realistic estimate is about 30-35 agricultural technicians and veterinary assistants per year. The output of the school at Butare should be gradually increased to reach this number in a few years to avoid overshooting effective demand. 54. Lower-Secondary Level: Training needs are considerably greater at A3 level: the training of extension workers and veterinary "nurses" in 2-year courses at lower secondary level. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that it would need about 1200 extension workers to reach the farming population effectively. In addition some 600-650 staff at this level would be needed for "projects". Here again, these figures should be ANNEX 2 Page 19 treated with care and considered as long-term targets. In absolute numbers the available staff of about 1300 "assistants agricoles" 1/, "vulgdrisateurs" and "moniteurs" should not grow too rapidly because of budget constra-Lnts; in terms of qualifications, however, there is need for improvement because the great majority (80%) of these workers consist of "moniteurs" who have not received any formal agricultural training but were trained on the job. A great number of them, who have great practical experience, should be retrained and paid according to the importance of their work (their present salary is $22 p.m); the remaining part, particularly the older workers, could be gradually replaced. To reach these targets over a 10-year period some 100-120 new work- ers should be trained at this level and some 60 workers at present in-service should be retained to meet the need of the extension and other services of the Ministry of Agriculture and of the various agricultural "projects". To release the veterinary assistants (A2) from work that could be done by A3 level personnel, about 10-20 veterinary "nurses" (A3) should be trained annually. The Ministry of Agriculture is operating a single school for training staff at this level, the Ecole des Vulgarisateurs at Kibuye. Its output of 20-25 workers per year is far below the needs of the country. 1/ An old grade which is now abolished.  ANNEX 3 Page 1 EDUCATION AND TRAINING General 1. The education system of Rwanda is patterned, by and large, on that of Belgium and structured as follows: 6 years of primary education starting from age seven, followed by 6-7 years of secondary education which includes technical-vocational courses at both lower and upper secondary level, and by 3-7 year courses at post-secondary and university level (Annex 2). Despite considerable progress and the beginning of innovation, it is unlikely that the existing system will be able to affect the productivity of the present and future working population to an appreciable extent. 2. In 1970 the educational attainment level of the adult population (age 15 and over) was as follows: Table 22: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVEL Illiterate 1,342,900 77.0% Literate in Kinyarwanda /1 80,400 4.6% Literate in French /1 25,800 1.5% Primary Education 268,500 15.4% Secondary Education 21,700 1.3% Technical Education 3,400 0.2% Higher Education 900 0.05% Total 1,743,600 100.0% /1 But without primary education Source: 1970 Demographic Survey 3. The new Government has decided on a fundamental reform of the education system to make primary education more directly relevant to|the economic and social needs of the majority of the population and to adjust secondary and which will be hampered by unusually severe resource limitations, urgently needs outside assistance. In secondary and higher education, the stomping grounds of numerous external aid agencies, developments arelun- coordinated and escaping governmental control; rationalization at these levels is required before major new investments are made. The absence of manpower data makes planning difficult. ANNEX 3 Page 2 I. The Existing Education and Training System Primary Education 4. With total enrollments at about 400,000 Rwanda would have 60-65% of the age group 7-13 in primary school (uncorrected 1/). A number of key statistics about the primary education system are given in Statistical Appendix Table 9.1. With the help of Unesco assistance, the government has now a better control over the school system. Students entering below school age have been largely eliminated, which accounts for the drop in enrollments (exclusively in the lower grades). The rate of drop-out and class repetition is down. As a result, far more children are now reaching grade 6 than a few years ago. The number and qualifications of teachers have improved and the average pupil-teacher ratio has decreased. 5. The primary system also displayg a remarkably high degree of equality between regions and sexes. In 1971-72 the enrollment rate (corrected) for each arrondissement varied between 42% and 56% and girls accounted for 44% of total enrollments. 6. Despite considerable progress, primary education remains beset by many problems. It has remained essentially a preparation for secondary education. Only a small minority (6%) of those who finish primary education, however, can be admitted to secondary education; as a result of the rapidly growing primary school output, opportunities for access to secondary schools are decreasing. For the great majority whose education is ended, the primary system is of little relevance. Post-Primary Education 7. To meet the needs of those who have no access to secondary education, a considerable number of small complementary schools for girls have been created (75), providing practical training in 3-year post-primary courses. A number of years ago, the Government also started a similar form of practical training for boys through the establishment of Centres d' Education Rurale et Artisanale (CERAR) of which there are now ten. These provide useful training; although enrollments have been growing steadily, (Statistical Appendix Table 3.2), it is unlikely that more than a small fraction of the needs can be met. Opportunities for girls are considerably wider than for boys. Post-primary education has to compete with the primary system for extremely scarce resources which will limit future growth. Secondary Education 8. The structure of secondary education is shown in Annex 1 and Table 9.2 summarizes a number of key statistics. Enrollments in general secondary education have grown only slowly (24% over six years) while enrollments in See footnote Statistical Appendix Table 9.1. ANNEX 3 Page 3 teacher training institutions have been virtually unchanged. Enrollments in vocational courses at lower secondary level and in technical courses at upper secondary level (industrial, agricultural, medical, etc.), on the other hand, have nearly doubled since 1965 with girls accounting for more than 42% of all technical students. 9. The number of secondary school teachers has increased rapidly from 595 in 1966/67 to 832 in 1972/73 (resulting in a very low, uneconomical pupil- teacher ratio of 12.7 : 1); the share of expatriate teachers had dropped from 65% to less than 44% over the same period. The majority of the Rwandese teachers, however, are not fully qualified: more than 60% of them have not gone beyond secondary education themselves and are, at best, only qualified as primary school teachers. 10. The present state of secondary education reflects unplanned develop- ment in the past assisted by largely uncoordinated foreign aid schemes over which the Government exercises little control. In 1971-72 there were 63 secondary schools for an enrollment of 10,000 students (of which 15 were "private" with 1100 students), resulting in an uneconomically low average school size of 167 students. Only one school has more than 500 students; a considerable number has less than 100. Many sections, particularly in technical education, consist of seven to fifteen students. The average school size is of course partly influenced by population dispersion but all secondary students are boarders and not usually enrolled in the school nearest to home. Available classroom space is often not fully utilized because boarding facilities are limited. With a pupil : teacher ratio of 12.7 : 1 enrollments could double without further increase in the number of staff. 11. In the absence of a manpower survey, it is difficult to judge whether secondary education is meeting present manpower needs. On the strength of available data, however, one would expect serious imbalances. Among the 16 secondary schools with technical and vocational courses, there is only one agricultural school despite the predominantly agricultural character of the economy. Its student body constitutes only 7% of all students in technical and vocational schools. There are various small schools teaching woodwork but only two offering a range of industrial skills. Mbst technical students (52%) are enrolled in courses for nurses and medical assistants, social workers and in domestic science. 12. Teacher Training. The training of primary school teachers takes place at three levels: (i) a 2-year auxiliary teachers course at secondary level form 2 and 3; (ii) a 2-year lower level teachers course at form 4 and 5 and (iii) a 4-year upper level course at forms 4 through 7. Virtually all students of the lower courses pursue a teaching career but only half of those in the upper course. ANNEX 3 Page 4 13. Technical Education. The Ministry of Education is responsible for the operation of agricultural, industrial, commercial, medical and other technical schools. But other ministries are also involved. Agricultural education is relatively undeveloped. In addition to the agricultural school mentioned in para .., which is training agricultural assistants at upper secondary level (A2), the Ministry of Agriculture is operating an agricul- tural extension worker school at lower level. With eight schools providing medical training at five levels (lower level nursing, diploma nurses, medical assistants, university level nurses, doctors) medical education and training is comparatively well developed. In addition to the technical-vocational schools of the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs is operating vocational training centers at lower secondary level. 14. Out of School Education. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs is also running hundreds of social centers for women and girls and some 90 literacy centers for children and adults with enrollments numbering about 50,000 and 14,000 respectively. Results are difficult to determine but it was learn that only a limited number of those enrolled do complete the courses successfully. The Ministry of Youth is operating numerous youth camps providing practical training for boys. As in the case of post- primary education, this sector offers more opportunities for women than for men. Higher Education 15. Higher education is provided in two "Grands Seminaires" (philosophy and theology), the National University (humanities, science, economics, medicine and nursing) and the National Pedagogical Institute (training of teachers for the first cycle of secondary education). In addition, a con- siderable number of students are enrolled abroad. 16. The National University was established, in the early sixties, with Canadian assistance and limited itself, initially, to short 3-year courses in humanities, science and economics which are now gradually being extended to full degree courses. Additional assistance was (and is being) received from Belgium to establish and operate a Faculty of Medicine, which now already runs a full 7-year program and from France for the School of Modern Languages. 17. Whether the University is designed to meet the country's most urgent manpower needs is open to serious doubt. Agriculture is entirely lacking. Medicine is the most developed sector: enrollments in the 7-year medicine program and in the 3-year nursing course number 224 or 43% of the total number of university students. Belgian aid for the medical program was intended to meet urgent needs on a short-term basis and is now being withdrawn. The pro- gram itself is, however, continued: as many as 53 students were admitted to the pre-medical course this year. Students from the faculties of humanities ANNEX 3 Page 5 and sciences are entering the teaching profession because of limited employ- ment opportunities elsewhere; these faculties are therefore in direct: competi- tion with the (virtually adjacent) National Pedagogical Institute and likely to saturate the demand for teachers in a few years. 18. The National Pedagogical Institute, established with UNDP/Inesco assistance, is training secondary school teachers (lower cycle) in a 3-year post-secondary course. 19. In 1972/73 573 Rwandese students were studhing broad of whom 525 at Universities and other post-secondary institutions. Table 9.4 shows field of study and country. II. Cost and Financing of Education Financing of Education 20. A description of the financing system is given in Appendix 2; it reflects the very severe financial constraints under which the system is working. Although the ordinary budget of the Ministry of Education claims a high 28% of the total government budget, it covers less than half t:he total cost of education. More than 67% of the education budget is spent on primary education and 97% of that amount is necessary to meet teachers' salaries leaving an annual amount of $0.30 per pupil for school material and $0.16 for books. Most of the recurrent expenses (and virtually all capital expenses) of secondary, technical and higher education are financed from non-government sources, (Table 9.5). In 1970 the share of government financing in secondary education was estimated at 20%, a figure which might have increased to 25% in the last three years as a result of the increasing number of Rwandese teachers. The rest (75%080%) is financed by voluntary institutions and external aid (some 50%). For higher education the share of government financing is even lower: 17.4% in 1970, nearly 60% of which consists of scholarships to students and is spent on boarding, books and pocket expenses (tuition is free to students). The remaining costs of higher education (82.6%) is financed by external aid from Canada, Belgium, France and UNDP. In accordance with external aid agreements, however, the government's counterpart contribution has been growing rapidly in recent years: from RwF 2.9 million in 1971 to Rwf 11.6 million in 1973 for the University and from RwF 9.8 million to RwF 13,5 million in the same years for the National Pedagogical Institute. Cost of Education 21. Expenditure data per level and type of education for the last few years are given in Tables 9.6 and 9.7. The average recurrent cost per pupil in primary school is RwF 1120 or $13.40 per year. For a student in secondary education (including technical education and teacher training) ANNEX 3 Page 6 the cost is nearly 50 times as high at approximately $615. It should be kept in mind, however, that this amount is inflated by the high cost of expatriate teachers and therefore rather artificial. If all teachers were paid local salaries, the cost per student in secondary education would drop to below $200. The cost is further inflated by the low student-teacher ratio and the fact that all students are boarders. Major savings could be accomplished by a rationalization of the system. 22. The costs of higher education are difficult to determine. For 1973 the cost per student can be estimated at about $5500-6000 for a university student and $3000-3500 for a student at the National Pedagogical Institute. As in the case of secondary education, these figures bear no relationship to local cost levels because of the high incidence of expatriate staff paid by foreign aid agencies. But even after discounting this factor, standards have been set which the government might find difficult to maintain in the long run. Government scholarships to students are very generous (see Appendix 2); at the University relatively expensive boarding facilities have been constructed, including a number of rooms for single occupancy; and a further $9 million university investment plan, to be financed by the Canadian government, was reported to be under consideration and this could raise the cost level very considerably. It is doubtful whether the financial feasibi- lity of these investments (in particular the annual recurrent cost implications) has been investigated in adequate depth. External Assistance 23. Rwanda is receiving a considerable amount of external assistance, from numerous multilateral and bilateral donor agencies, for the operation and development of its education system. Because most foreign aid projects span periods of more than one year, it is difficult to estimate the value of external assistance on an annual basis. Appendix 3 contains a list of major external assistance schemes with their approximate dollar value from which an order of magnitude can be derived. As can be seen, most foreign aid is recurrent in nature: the cost of experts, teachers and professors, scholarships and other operating costs. The impression is that, after a period of extensive capital investments, donors are now more committed to keeping the institutions operational by providing staff and meeting other recurrent expenses. Amongst the international agencies, UNDP/Unesco and FED are the most active; amongst the bilateral donors Belgium and Canada. 24. Foreign aid has made a considerable impact on the education system; it is difficult to see, how secondary and higher education could have devel- oped so quickly without this aid. However, since foreign aid schemes were largely uncoordinated and no government plan was available to serve as a guide and to set priorities in the framework of national objectives, develop- ments have escaped effective government control, have outgrown available national resources to manage and operate the facilities, are often unneces- sarily expensive (paras.. and ..) and not always geared to the country's needs. ANNEX 3 Page 7 25. More effective government control of the secondary and higher education system, through improved planning and coordination of all external assistance schemes, is now urgently needed. Through rationalization, important cost savings could be achieved in secondary and higher education. To avoid further proliferation of scarce resources (both local and foreign) all new projects should be carefully screened and evaluated on the basis of their contribution to establish priorities and of their economic and financial justification. III. Manpower Demand and Supply General 26. According to a 1970 demographic survey the total population of Rwanda numbered 3.7 million of whom only 130,000 or 3.5% were registered as urban. Because of the small size of urban settlement, the distinction between urban and rural is very relative and many urban workers remain active in agriculture. 27. The economically active population number 1.75 million of whom 96% were working. Women outnumber men 52 to 48 in this group because they are more numerous in the 15-55 age bracket and their participation in the labor force (as family workers on the farm, but also as independents) is very high. 28. More than 93% of the active population were employed in agricul- ture. The numbers employed in the secondary and tertiary sector were very small: 50,000 or 2,8% of whom 11,900 were independent traders, artisans, etc. The rest or nearly 4% were not employed at the time of the survey. The number of wage and salary earners in agriculture, commerce industry and the services was only 42,000 (Statistical Appendix Tables 1.5 and 1.6). Manpower Requirements 29. Given the predominantly agricultural character of the Rwandese economy and the urgent need to increase agricultural production to feed the rapidly expanding population, the highest priority should be given to the improvement of agricultural knowledge, skills and techniques of the present and future farming population. Through appropriate extension methods this effort should be directed, in the first place, to the 576,000 men and 156,000 women who were regarded as independent farmers during the 1970 survey. The resulting needs for adequately trained extension personnel are discussed below, under "agricultural manpower needs". But in the second place, appro- priate agricultural education and training should be given, through the school system, to new entrants into the farming community at a level where broad groups of such new entrants can be reached, that is, in present circumstances. In the last years of the primary school system. In view of the important ANNEX 3 Page 8 role of women in the farming community, agricultural education and extension should be directed at both men and women; the special courses for women and girls in nutrition and related domestic science subjects (such as those given in girls' complementary schools, social centers etc.) should be continued and intensified. 30. The manpower needs of the modern sector of the economy are difficult to determine (with the exception of the need for agricultural personnel and teachers, dealt with below), because a reliable estimate of manpower requirements has not yet been prepared. According to the Ministry of Planning some provisional estimates are being drawn up and further help is expected from an ILO team which is to visit Rwanda soon. The matter should be further looked into by an education project identification mission which could visit Rwanda early 1974; if insufficient progress is made, the cost of a manpower study should be included in a first education project to be assisted by the Bank Group. 31. In the absence of a manpower forecast, only a few global and tentative observations can be made which should be treated with the greatest care. Given the very limited modern sector employment (Table 1.5), the annual demand for manpower trained in higher, secondary and technical edu- cation, seeking paid employment, would probably not be very great in numerical terms even if the economy would continue to develop rapidly. The need for university and higher technician (post-secondary) level personnel will probably not exceed 150-180 per year, even allowing for full replacement of expatriate staff in ten years. Effective demand at this level may be considerably less because this replacement will form a considerable burden on the local budget. The need for personnel with some form of secondary education, technical edu- cation and vocational training is probably about 1500 per year. There is still an unmet demand for technical personnel but the numbers sought by employ- ers are not very impressive. In tourism some 150 hotel employees will have to be trained over the next five years or 30 a year to which should be added an annual need of about 15 guides and 15 guards, giving a total annual need, under the most favorable circumstances (if all plans would materialize) of 60 employees per year. Agricultural Manpower Needs 32. An estimate of agricultural manpower needs is given in Annex 2, paras. 51-54. At higher education level, the need for agricultural engineers, (A-1 level) technicians (trained in two-year post-secondary courses) and veterinarians during the period 1972-76 is about 60 or 12-15 per year. At upper secondary level (A-2), the need for middle level agricultural technicians and veterinary assistants can be estimated at 30-35 per year. 33. Considerably greater needs exist for extension workers and veterinary nurses who are normally trained in a two-year course after completion of two or three years of secondary education (A-3 level). To ANNEX 3 Page 9 provide for a gradual increase in the total staff and for replacement or retraining of the "moniteurs" who have received no formal training to the level of "vulgarisateurs", about 100-120 new extension workers should be trained and 60 "moniteurs" retrained per year. 1/ In addition, the annual need for veterinary nurses is estimated at 10-20. Teaching Staff 34. With a pupil:teacher ratio of 12.7:1, secondary education should aim at a better utilization of existing staff and not at a further increase in the teaching crops. If the ratio were gradually raised to 20:1, enroll- ments in secondary schools could increase by 58% without further increases in the total number of staff. Over a ten-year period this would represent a 4.7% increase in enrollments per year which is probably ample to meet , secondary level manpower needs. There is, however, a need to replace 365 expatriate teachers and 320-350 unqualified Rwandese teachers now in service. Over a ten-year period this would represent a training need of about 70 teachers a year, of whom about 20-25 for the upper cycle and 45-50 for the lower cycle of secondary education. 35. These numbers should include a substantial number of teachers qualified to teach technical subjects (agriculture, handicraft, industrial skills and home economics) if the educational reforms, outlined below, are to be implemented. They are needed not only because greater emphasis will be placed on secondary technical education (including extension worker training) but also because a considerable number of instructors of teacher training institutions should be qualified to prepare trainees to teach practical subjects in primary schools. The numbers required cannot be determined pending more detailed planning of the proposed reforms. 36. The total number of primary school teachers to be trained is also difficult to estimate for the same reason. As will be explained in para ... below, it is unlikely that the primary education reform can be fully imple- mented before 1985. Implementation at a slower pace, within feasible limits, would require the training of about 520 primary school teachers per year, of whom about 170 should be qualified to teach "practical" subjects. Manpower Supply 37. During the five-year period 1972-1976, 467 Rwandese students are expected to complete their studies abroad (316 at university level and 151 in lower, post-secondary courses). Since the National University is now in the process of extending its courses to "license" level, its output during 1/ These figures do not only include the needs of the extension service and other services of the Ministry of Agriculture but also the needs of agricultural "projects" for staff trained at this level. ANNEX 3 Page 10 the same five-year period will be limited: perhaps 140 at degree level and 235 in shorter courses. With present enrollments and facilities the National Pedagogical Institute should be able to produce 230 teachers during these five years. Combined, these sources would, therefore, supply more than 1000 high level personnel which is likely to exceed effective demand. More details are given in Table 9.8 of the Statistical Appendix. 38. During the next five year period 1977-81, total supply will be considerably higher than in 1973-76. About 80 students now studying abroad will complete their studies soon after 1976 but it is assumed that the Govern- ment will continue to grant overseas scholarships in a number of fields where no training exists in Rwanda so that this number will be considerably higher. According to plans, the National University will have expanded its enrollments to more than 800 students by 1976 and should be able to produce, in the ensuing five-year period nearly 500 degree holders and 300 graduates from shorter courses. The National Pedagogical Institute should be able to produce 300 teachers. The total supply of high level manpower during 1977-81 may therefore exceed 12000 (Table 9.8). 39. Although a surplus may not become immediately apparent, it is doubtful whether the small Rwandese economy can absorb these numbers. Lack of employment opportunities may be felt first in the teaching profession. A majority of students graduating in humanities and sciences are reported to enter education. If 80% of them would continue to do so, in addition to those trained at the National Pedagogical Institute, nearly 1100 candi- dates would seek employment as teacher during the period 1977-81 which is considerably more than the country will need. The situation is the more serious because none of them would be qualified to teach agricultural, indus- trial and other technical skills for which the need is the most urgent. 40. In the field of agricultre 107 agronomists (79 at "engineer" level and 28 at A-1 technician level) and 38 veterinarians are expected to be trained between 1972 and 1981, (Table 9.8). This would seem adequate to meet foreseeable needs. 41. As assessment of high level manpower needs, is urgently needed to achieve a more rational development of the higher education sector, in particular the expansion of the National University, the National Pedagogical Institute and the training of Rwandese students abroad. Pending the results of such assessment, the Government would be well advised to postpone major investments. This would apply in particular to a $9 million investment plan for the University and nearly $1 million for the N.P.I. which are reported to be financed by Canada and FED respectively. 42. The annual output potential of the secondary school system (at present capacity and enrollment levels) is about 1000-1100 at lower level and 900 from the second cycle (Statistical Appendix, Table 9.9). After sub- tracting students entering post-secondary education, the total output of about 1600 per year would seem adequate to meet present needs, at least numerically, but whether the output is balanced can only be determined after a manpower study. ANNEX 3 Page 11 43. There are obvious gaps. Agricultural training is far below the needs, especially at lower level where the output (one single school) is only a fraction of the need for extension workers needed. The teacher training capacity is probably adequate but the high percentage of students not entering the teaching profession is disturbing; the system, moreover, is not geared to produce the required number of "practical subject" teachers. In the industrial training sector, middle level training (A-2 technician level) is absent. The small number trained in commerce and secretarial work is probably below the country's needs. In tourism, a Belgian tourism project includes a training component to be housed in a hotel in Kigali which is to be expanded. This project aims at training 30 hotel employees. Tourist guides are being trained in the Office du Tourisme. The numbers trained in this sector might be adequate or below the requirements, if all tourist investment plans materialize. The shortfall, however, would not be critical and outputs could easily be brought in line with effective demand if this were required. IV. Education Reform Plans 44. Aware of the inadequacies of the present education system, the Government recently decided to restructure primary and secondary education in accordance with economic and social needs. The reform plans can be summarized as follows (see Chart in Appendix 1). 45. Primary education, for a majority of the students, will become terminal, preparing students directly for entry into the labor force. To adjust the school age to the legal minimum age for employment, and to reduce the present juvenile delinquency problem, the entry age for the first grade will be raised to nine to ten years (still to be determined). Student promotion throughout the six-year course will be automatic and the objective is to enroll 100% of the age group in this course. Instruction in the first four years will be in the local language and a gradual increasing element of practical work (1-1/2 hours per week in the first two years, four hours in the third and fourth grade). After the fourth grade about 25-30% of the students (or three times the number to be admitted to secondary education) will be channelled into a two-year preparatory course for secondary 0ducation, with intensive instruction in French but also a remaining element of practical work (about two hours per week). The majority of the students, however, would be admitted to a two-year terminal course with 50% of the time devoted to practical skill training in agriculture, handicraftsl, etc. The existing three-year post-primary courses (CERAR, girls' complementary schols) would be compressed to two years and integrated into the terminal two-year primary course. The Government wants to start implementing this reform next year; consequently no seven-year old children will be adInitted to primary education as from 1974 but the new system will start admitting nine or ten year old children not now enrolled in the old system. ANNEX 3 Page 12 46. Secondary education would be closely geared to the country's manpower needs. Short three-year vocational courses at lower level would train skilled workers in different fields. The longer six-year course would divide, at upper level, into a three-year preparatory course for university entry and a three-year middle level technician course. Students from both courses could be admitted to post-secondary education. The proposed new secondary system is not substantially different from the existing system. 47. The primary education reform would necessitate the training of considerable numbers of teachers already in service; the Government wants to decentralize this effort through the use of itinerant training teams. Pre-service training of "practical subject" teachers would be combined with the training of agricultural extension workers and technicians in two new institutions of 720 places each where annually 240 teachers and agricultural technicians at upper secondary level. For the printing of the necessary manuals and other didactic materials, the Ministry of Education wants to acquire an offset printing press. Bank Group assistance is sought to finance these plans. In addition, the Ministry is requesting Bank assistance to finance 5000 additional places in secondary education to expand a number of small schools to more economical size. V. Development Needs and Limitations 48. Primary Education: The Government's reform plans for primary education constitute a promising departure from the traditional system and, if effectively implemented, would make education considerably more relevant to children and adolescents prior to their entry into active life. It might become a sweeping experiment that, if successful after proper programming, might set a pattern for other African countries. As such the reform would merit active support. 49. Although the Government intends to start implementation already by mid-1974, planning has not yet sufficiently advanced to permit a full assess- ment of (i) content and methods of the new system, (ii) human, physical and financial resources required, (iii) the extent to which the reform is feasible given the existing resource limitations. The Government is, however, aware of the need for such planning and undertook to prepare a more detailed plan of the reform, with the help of available Unesco expertise, in the immediate future as a starting point for a possible project identification mission. 50. Reform implementation will face formidable obstacles. There will be opposition from parents and teachers. Considerable numbers of staff must be trained and retrained. Scarce land must be made available for training. Additional classrooms and considerably more equipment will be required. Primary education will claim considerably more resources from a budget that is already tightly stretched. The Government is, however, firmly determined to proceed with the reform without delay and to overcome these obstacles. ANNEX 3 Page 13 51. A very tentative assessment of the financial and teacher resources required would indicate that full implementation of the reform by 1985, covering the entire age group 10-16 (say 95%), would require a very steep increase in the primary education budget which is likely to exceed available resources (Appendix 4, alternative 1). It might, however, be possible to reach 75%-80% of the age group, by 1985 (alternative IV), at a budget increase of about 6% p.a., which could be feasible, due to a peculiar demographic trend. According to a 1970 demographic survey, the age group 5-15 would grow at a rate considerably slower than that for the population as a whole (1.2% p.a. as compared with more than 2.5%) between 1970 and 1985 as a result of a temporary reduction, this decade, in the number of women in the childbearing age. From a demographic point of view, the coming 12-year period is there- fore particularly suitable to start the reform. After 1985 the age group 5-15 will probably resume its rapid increase and achievement of universal primary education will therefore remain very difficult, even over a longer time span (alternatives II, III and IV in Appendix 4). 52. If full support from the local population could be won, it might be possible to ensure the construction of additional classroom and workshop space and the availability of land through local self-help schemes. External assistance will be required for: (i) continued technical assistance to support the Government in implementing the reform and strengthen inspection and supervision; (ii) financing of building materials, equipment, and the cost of supervisory personnel to make self-help more effective; (iii) preparation and printing of manuals and other material; (iv) training and retraining of teachers, in combination with extension worker training. 53. The Government's plan to combine the training of teachers with that of extension workers merits full support but could have gone further: if budget resources would prevent the appointment of an extension agent and an agricultural teacher separately in all communities, the position could be combined. Before the training scheme is finalized, an assurance should be obtained from the Government that the very limited budget of the Ministry of Agriculture will be increased to permit the hiring of the newly trained extension workers. 54. The need to construct two new training institutions with 1440 places at an estimated cost of $7 million should be carefully investigated. Less costly alternatives might be possible. Existing primary teacher training colleges are accommodating more than 1600 students and producing some 550 teachers per year. It is not immediately clear whether part of these existing institutions could be used for the purpose. ANNEX 3 Page 14 55. Equally doubtful is the need ta train a number of teachers and agricultural staff at upper secondary level in addition to training at lower level. The reluctance of teachers with full secondary education to teach in the smaller communities, resulting in a 50% attrition rate would seem to justify second thoughts. And the need for additional middle level agricultural technicians (A-2) is rather limited and could be met more effectively by expanding the existing agricultural school. 56. The need to provide the Ministry of Education with printing equip- ment should also be scrutinized. At present a printing house in Belgium is providing Wanda with good quality textbooks in the local language at costs which are considerably lower than those charged by local printers (one private, one semi-government). It is not immediately clear how the Ministry of Educa- tion could improve on these costs, if local producers are unable to do so, because a detailed cost analysis has not been carried out yet. It would be desirable to investigate various alternative solutions, including the improve- ment of existing local printing capacity, to meet the printing needs of the whole government sector and not only those of the Ministry of Education. 57. Secondary ducation: Due to the absence of a reliable manpower estimate, it is difficult to draw conclusions from the Government's policy to gear the further development of secondary education closely to the country's manpower needs. Pending further investigation, there is little justification for an across the. board 50% increase in enrollments as proposed by the government. There is an urgent need for rationalization, coordination between various external assistance schemes and better planning to achieve a more economical average school size through gradual elimination of the nume- rous small schools and better utilizati3n of existing physical and human resources. In addition to a manpower survey, a secondary education rationali- zation plan should be based on an inventory of these resources. The Ministry of Education will probably need expert assistance in preparing such a plan. It is therefore proposed to include the cost of such assistance in a possible IDA education project. 58. Pending the results of this plan, it would be unwise to decide on maior new investments. An exception should be made for steps to meet urgent needs which could be clearly identified without a manpower survey. Two such needs: (i) the training of teachers qualified to teach agriculture and other practical subjects in the reformed primary school system and (ii) the training of agricultural extension workers. To the extent possible these needs should be met by better use of existing school facilities; new con- struction should be limited. To meet additional needs for agricultural persornel, the existing agricultural school at Butare could gradually increase, without major new investments, the training of A-2 level agricul- tural technicians and veterinary assistants to which could be added a limited number of teachers of agriculture. ANNEX 3 Page 1.5 59. In the field of industrial training, the Ecole Technique Officielle should establish direct and continuous contact with major public and private employers to assess their specific, short term manpower training needs and expand and adjust its courses accordingly. If effective demand would justify this, it could gradually enter the field of in-service training and more advanced training course. The school would need continued technical assistance and additional equipment. The Government was advised to obtain ILO advice on the development of technical education; additional financial assistance could be requested from Belgium and the Netherlands who financed the school in an earlier stage. 60. Higher Education: As in secondary education, there is little justification for major new investments but an urgent need for careful planning and a revamping of higher education (both the University and the National Pedagogical Institute) to ensure that the country's priority needs are met at a cost level that would be in future reach of the Government. VI. Conclusions and Recommendations 61. Major emphasis should be given, in designing foreign aid policy, to helping the Government in carrying out plans to make the present system more productive in promoting economic and social development. In view of the predominance of the agricultural sector and its crucial role in feeding a rapidly growing population, this would imply giving much greater weight to agricultural, nutrition and related courses than in the past. These should be directed to new entrants into the labor force and to practicing farmers, both men and women. 62. Present Government plans for a reform of the primary education system do offer a major opportunities for foreign aid sources to assist in attaining the above objectives. The Government will need help in: (i) planning, carrying out and supervising the proposed education reforms; (ii) increasing the training and re-training of agricultural extension workers and related staff, revamping the training of primary school teachers and initiating the in-service training of teachers in the system; (iii) financing of building materials equipment and the cost of supervisory personnel to make self-help more effective; (iv) preparation and production of textbooks, manuals and other printed material. ANNEX 3 Page 16 63. Aid projects in this field should be based on a careful study of how available resources can be used more effectively to avoid the establish- ment of too many new institutions which would unduly burden future govern- ment budgets. The training of agricultural workers and "practical subject" teachers should be closely integrated. 64. In secondary and higher education, major new investments (in areas other than those mentioned in para 58), and expansion of enrollments should await the rationalization of a system which is too expensive and insufficiently geared to the country's needs. The Government would need immediate help in planning the future development of secondary and higher education, in establishing better control over the system, in making better use of existing resources and in carrying out a manpower survey. Early attention should be given to assessing the needs for industrial, admin- istrative/clerical and training as well as to agricultural training at levels higher than those mentioned above. Ways should be found to restructure secondary and higher education to meet these needs without major new invest- ments and further escalation of costs. ANNE 3 -- APPENDIX i RWANDA - EXISTING EDUCATION SYSTEM AGO7N -- 9 ---10 ---11 --12 13 --14 ---15 - 16 -- 17 - 18 - 19 20 --- 21 ---22 - 23 ---24 ----26 - 1 3 CEHAR GIRLS COMPLEMENTARY 2) TEACH.ER TRAININdG NAT.PED INST. PRIMARY GENERAL SECONDARY 2 2 3 6 TECHNICAL NATIONAL JNIVERSkTY VOCATIONAL UIVERSITIES ABROAD 2 3 4 5 - PROPO§ED EDUCATION SYSTEM A 10 ---1 -12 --- 3 -- 1 --- 15 16 -- 1 8 --- 9 - 20 - 2 1 22 - 23 - 24 TERMINAL PRIMARY VOCATIONAL PREPARATORY GENERAL SECONDARY z 3E4 HIGHER EDUCATfON TECHNICAL C] j r33 E2 MPL.OYMENT Wor1if Bank4 82 7  ANNEX 3 - APPENDIX 2 Page I EDUCATION-COST AND FINANCING Financing of Education 1. Primary education and complementary education for girls: the government pays all recurrent costs of these schools, that is: all teachers' salaries plus a very meager allocation for books and materials. No fees are levied. Parents construct the s:hool buildings (extremely simple, often devoid of furniture and equipment). A qualified primary school teacher earns about frs. 42,000 p.a. ($500). 2. Secondary and Technical Education and Teacher Training: the government pays the salaries of all Rwandese teachers and of those foreign teachers who are volunteers and do not receive salaries from abroad. Of the 832 teachers in secondary education in 1972/73, 456 were foreign; amongst them were 165 volunteers. Rwandese salaries at this level range from frs. 76,000 to frs. 135,000 p.a. ($915-$1625). Parents are paying a school fee of frs. 1,000 ($12) p.a. per student directly to the school to which the government adds frs. 5,000 per student for boarding costs (all students at this level are boarders), school material and supplies, servants, etc. In addition, the government allocates a small amount in its budget to school material. External assistance pays for the salaries for all foreign teachers except volunteers; the amount involved is unknown to the government but can be estimated at $4 million. In addition, external assistance and voluateer organizations often supplement the inadequate school budget to meet other recurrent expenses. 3. Higher Education. No fees are levied at this level. The Govern- ment pays pach student annually frs. 5,000 for initial expenses and a monthly allowance of frs. 5,000 (for 10 months, medical students 12 months) to be spent on rent for his room (frs. 400), food (frs. 2,500), books and pocket money (frs. 2,100). Thus an average student receives frs. 55,000 p.a. which is more than the full salary of a qualified primary school teacher. In addi- tion, the government pays its counterpart contribution (rapidly increasing each year) towards the cost of the National University which is run by bila- teral assistance from Canada with additional help from Belgium and France and the National Pedagogical Institute run by UNDP/UNESCO with additional help from FED and the U.S.A. In the last three years, these government counterpart contributions were as follows: National University Nat. Pedagogical Institute 1971 frs. 2,916,000 frs. 9,838,645 1972 5,275,000 11,762,407 1973 11,551,000 13,477,000 APPENDIX 2 Page 2 The Government was unable to provide information about the total cost of these institutions and its percentage share in the cost. The contribution of the various sponsoring agencies is shown in Annex 7. The total recurrent cost of the University in 1973 can be estimated at about $3 million and of the iational Pedagogical Institute at $0.75 million, (including government financing of 18% and 40% respectively). These are very rough estimates giving only an order of magnitude. 4. In addition, the government finances a number of other institu- tions at the higher level: the University Hospital at Butare, the National Institute of Health, the University Laboratory, the School for Medical Assistants at Kigali and the Nursing School. .If the 1324 Rwandese Ltudeats abroad, the greater part of the cost is financed by scholarships from bilateral assistance and FED; a small number of about 50 students study under government scholarships. They receive an annual grant of Belg. frs. 7,500 plus BeIg. frs, 6,000 p.m. or a total of 3elg. frs. 79,500 ($2200). 6. The government's share in the financing of the country's education system is gradually increasing. It was only 39.6% in 1967 but grew to 43.4% in 1970. This percentage has probably increased further since then. Education Expenditure 7. The Ministry of Education claims a major share of the Government's total ordinary budget, which share has been fluctuating around 27%-28% during the last few years: 1970 1971 1972 1973 Rw. Frs. Million -Actual Expenditure- Budget Government Ordinary Expenses 1756.7 2173.3 2421.3 2665.0 Ministry of Education 490.0 5777.9 677.0 639.7 Percentage share 27.9% 26.6% 28.0% 24.0% 8. Actual spending by the Ministry of Education considerably exceeds Budget allocations: 1971 1972 Budget 463.0 563.2 Actual expenses 577.9 677.0 % excess spending 25% 20% The causes of overspending and the destination of the additional funds could not be determined. Better accounting practices and stricter budgetary con- trols should be enforced. ANNEX - APPENDIX 3 Page EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO EDUCATION 1. Rwanda is receiving external assistance in operating and develop- ing its education and training system from some 20 different sources. The following is a summary of major assistance schemes: 1. Education, Administration, Planning, Research Curriculum Development, etc. (i) UNDP/UNESCO 3 experts in school administration and educational planning and programming; ongoing since 1969; present share will cover 5-year period 1972-76 at $ 273,000 (ii) UNDP/UNESCO pedagogical research: see under Teacher Trainl.ng - Nat. Pedagogical Institute (iii) Belgium Bureau Pedagogique National, Kegali 3 full-time experts and 5-part-time experts 1972/73 174,600 plus construction and equipment 56,000 II. Primary and Post-Primary (non-formal Education (i) France Universite Radiophonique Gitarama (pilot primary school project): expert n.a. plus construction (1972) 40,000 (ii) Religious Missions Assist in establishing Centres d'Education Rurale et Artisanale (CERAR's) and family sections by providing premises n.a. (iii) Netherlands construction and improvement.of schools of religious orders 286,350 In addition assistance is sought from or considered by: APPENDIX 3 Page 2 (iv) UNDP for the promotion of rural education ('74-76) and for developing the use of mass media in post-school education (1973-75) $236,000 and by (v) FED for the construction of 7 CERAR's 685,000 III. Secondary Education (i) Belgium 9'8 Teachers $2,450,000 (xi) France 30 Teachers n.a. France construction Lucee de Kigali 1971-73) $1,182,000 (iii) Canada Teachers n.a. (iv) Others (not specified) Teachers n.a. (v) FED Construction Lycee Jeunes Filles, Kigali (1967-72) $1,251,000 (vi) Switzerland College Officiel, Kigali: director, 4 teachers, participation in con- struction and operating costs (1963-1973), terminated $1,343,750 IV. Teacher Training (i) LNDP/UNESCO National Pedogical Institute; experts scholarships and equipment (1966-'73) $2,306,500 (ii) FED National Pedagogical Institute: study and construction of building (not yet started) $ 784,000 (iii) Belgium & France Nat. Pedagogical Institute: 11 teachers n.a. (iv) France Centre de Formation Pedagogique - Ecole Normale Normale Butare: 6 experts (1970-73) $ 105,600 APPENDIX :3 Page 3 V. Agricultural Education & Training Ecole Agricole, Butare: (i) France 9 experts plus operating costs (1970-73) $ 251,800 (ii) Canadian, non Gov't aid Centre de formation agricole, Nyagaha 7,300 (iii) UNDP/FAO Scholarships in fisheries, horticulture, rural development n.a. (iv) Israel 8 scholarships in agriculture, cooperatives, community develop- ment (1973) 15,000 (v) Switzerland Scholarships in forestry n.a. Centre Agricole, Kibuye: experts, scholarships and operating costs (1964-73) $1,218,750 VI. Technical-Industrial Education & Training (i) Switzerland Ecole Technique Feminine, Remera: 2 teachers (1966-73) - terminated 150,000 (ii) Belgium Ecole Technique Officielle de Kicukizo: construction 1971-75 296,000 (iii) UNDP/FAO Centre d'enseignement des cuirs et peaux, Kigali: experts, scholarships, equipment (1968-'73) 542,900 (iv) FED Formation Artisanale CRAFAG, Gitarama: 4 volunteers 24,500 (v) Germany, Fed. Republic scholarships in leather training $ 40,800 and tourism (1969-73) 25,500 and in road maintenance, telecom- munications, civil aviation and radio n.a. (vi) UNDP scholarships in telecommunications and aviation APPENDIX 3 Page 4 VII. Health Training WHO see under: Higher Education, Faculty of Medicine also: scholarships 1971-74 $ 65,400 Israel Ecole des Assistants Medicaux, Kigali 1 doctor (direction( 1965-75 50,000 Switzerland Ecole d'Infirmieres, ,ilinda: 2 experts (1968-73) 60,300 VIII. Administrative Training UNDP/ILO Formation personnel de bureau, Kigali: expert, scholarships and equipment ('69-'72) $ 143,250 Labor administration: 4 scholarships ('69-'73) 47,200 Belgium Centre de Formation des Cadres Murambi: 5 experts, equipment, operating costs ('63-'72) $2,013,000 Centre de Formation Judiciaire, Nyabinsindu: 2 experts, equipment, operating costs (1972) 739,000 IX. Higher Education National University Canada 1. professors, admin. assistants and operating costs (1971-78) $11,000,000 2. construction and equipment of major building (1973-78, not yet started) 9,000,000 APPENDIX 3 Page 5 Belgium 1. Faculty of Medicine: laboratories, equipment, hospital (completed) $ 2,800,000 2. Professors (anatomy, linguistics), laboratory technicians, 1972-73 75,000 3. Visiting professors (genie civil) 1972-76 buildings in this field expected later 182,000 WHO Two professors of fiedicine & equipment 150,407 France Faculte des Lettres: 11 professors and operating costs. n.a. Other: FED Scholarships for study abroad $ 2,097,000 Belgium Scholarships for study abroad and at home n.a. German Fed. Republic 10 Scholarships for study abroad (1970-72) $ 50,600 Additional scholarships in criminology ('67-'75) USSR 90 scholarships for study abroad n.a. Italy ) Canada ) France ) Scholarships n.a. Switzerland) UNDP Scholarships in economics, mining research and engineering, meteorology (1969-76) n.a.  ANNE 3 - AP?ENI l RWANDA - Primary Education Reform Mission Estimate of Enrollments, Teachers and Financial r.",uc.ci Required in 1980-1985 and 1990-1995 Present System New System 1972/1973 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Age Group 10-16- (575,000) 632,500 671,400 741,200 838,600 948,700 Scholarisation Rate Hypothesis I - 95% 11 - - 95% 111 - - - 95% IV 70% 80% 85% 90% 95% Enrollments (399,450) Hypothesis I - 637,830 " II - - 704,140 Il - - - 796,670 IV 442,750 537.120 630,000 754,740 901.265 Assumptions: (1) Automatic promotion throughout. (ii) Double shift in grade I and 2. (ii) Pupil-Teacher ratio 40:1 Teachers Required: (7,586) Hypothesis I - 13.150 " I - - 14,505 III - - - 16,420 IV 9,120 11,065 12,985 15,555 18,575 Recurrent Costs (frs. millon) (453.8) Hypothesis I - 1204.2 " 11 - - 1616.3 " II - - - 2225.8 IV- - - 3063.6 Percentage Increase p.a. in Primary Education Budget. Hypothesis 1 (1972-85) - 7.8% - - - I (1972-90) - - 7.3% - - " 1 (1972-95) - - - 7.1% - TV (1972-2000) - - - - 7.0% (1972-85) - 6.3% - - - Teacher Training Needs 1972-85 1972-90 1972-95 Hypothesis I : new staff 5564 - replacement- 4480 - Total 10044 - per year 770 - Hypothesis II : new staff /3 6919 replacement- 5244 Total 12163 per year 675 Hypothesis III: new staff L 8834 replacement 6009 Total 14843 per year 645 Hypothesis IV 1972-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-2000 new staff 1534 1945 1920 2570 3020 replacement 1934 1383 1723 2245 2834 Total 3468 3328 3643 4815 5854 per year 430 665 728 963 1170 Of whom: 520 p.a. Teachers "practical subjects" 1770 465 570 840 1000 per year 220 93 115 170 200 170 p.a. /1 Estimated at 575,000 in 1972 and expected to grow (according to population census) by only 1.2% p.a. between 1970 and 1985; assumed to grow at 2% p.a. between 1985 and 1990 and at 2.5% o.a. between 1990 and 2000. /2 Recurrent costs have been estimated as follows: according to the 1972 budget, the average personnel cost for a teacher in primary and complementary education was estimated at frs. 45,400 (which compares with a nominal salary for a qualified teacher of fra. 42 000 per year). Actual personnel expenses in 1972, however, greatly exceeded budget estimates, bringing the average cost per teacher to an inexplicably high figure of fra. 57,340. It is assumed that better budgetary control will eliminate these overruns in the future but that the gradual replacement of unqualified teachers (by the target year of the different hypotheses) would raise the average cost per teacher to frs. 50.000. In addition, an annual 4% increase in real salaries has been applied and it is assumed that, in addition to teachers' salaries 10% of the salary amount would be required for books, materials, supplies. etc. (now:3%). /3 Full replacement of 2490 unqualified teachers and regular replacement at 3% p.a. of the rest.  ANNEX 4 Page 1 TOURISM General 1. Rwanda's tourism sector is embryonic despite great natural assets: Lake Kivu and surrounding mountains, the National Parks with a variety of wildlife including rare mountain gorillas, attractive landscape and a very temperate climate. With the opening in Kigali of the "Hotel des 1000 Collines" a 133 beds hotel owned by Sabena related interests, in December 1973, accommodation capacity attained 242 rooms, or 493 beds of which only 290 are used by international travel agencies. No tourism statistics exist in Rwanda. Airport arrivals were about 5000 in 1972, which could indicate a tourism traffic of about 2500-3000 persons. These figures are corroborated by the ones provided by managers of hotels and by the country's only tour operator. Based on an average length of stay of four days with an average daily expenditure of US$50, tourism expenditures are estimated at about US$600,000 (some 3% of total export receipts in 1971) of which about 60% or US$350,000 remain in the country. 2. Tourism has been declared one of the country's priority sectors. To foster tourism development, the Office Rwandais du Tourisme et des Pares Nationaux was created on June 18th, 1973, within the President's Office. The Office's responsibilities cover three areas: - administration of the tourism sector; - national parks and conservation; - commercial activities (mainly the operation of two government-owned hotels in Kigali). 3. The first long-term task of the Office, to be carried out with German Technical Assistance, is the drafting of the 1974-1978 Tourism Develop- nient Plan. The Government strategy is to develop beach tourism around Kivu Lake and a tourism circuit with visits of the Akagera National Park (similar to other East African parks but in an usually attractive hilly setting) and the Volcanoes National Parks (where the endangered mountain gorilla lives). The groups on the circuit could go on to visit in Uganda (once this country opens up again) and Zaire and would interrupt their trip for some beach zest at Gisenyi on the Kivu Lake. Such tours exist at present on.a small scale and bring to Rwanda Americans on a grand African tour and Europeans airiving in Kigali and visiting only Rwanda and Zaire. This development strategy rests on: ANNEX 4 Page 2 - adequate air service to Rwanda; - the existence of adequate hotel capacity and trained manpower; - an adequate road network; - the protection of the ?arks; and - international cooperat.on. Air Transport 4. Rwanda is linked to Europe by Air France, Air Zaire and Sabena. East African Airways links Kigali to Nairobi and Bujumbura. Established only for political reasons (Kigali is just a technical stop for Air Zaire on the Lumumbash.-Prankfurth run), the Air France and Sabena lines are a loosing proposition. As a way to make its line profitable, Sabena plans to bring groups of 25 perople on each of its four weekly flights to its new hotel. Air Prance is also likely to increase the number of its groups, but appears to have dropped plans of building a hotel in Rwanda. Hotel Development 5. With the opening of the "1000 Collines" hotel, capacity in Kigali will be adequate for the next few years. Hotel capacity will be needed on Lake Kivu and near the National Parks to provide adequate accommodation for the groups. Several bilateral assistance programs are preparing hotel projects: (i) On Lake Kivu at Gisenyi The feasibility study of a 60-100 room hotel in Gisenyi was due for completion by the firm Danish Turkey Hotels in November, 1973. The Danish Government has earmarked US$3 million for aid in Rwanda. This amount would finance construction of the hotel which should start in April 1974 as well as the development of a model farm which would supply fresh produce to hotels in Gisenvi. (ii) On Lake Kivu at Kibouye The German Government has commissioned through DEC a feasibility study for a 60-room hotel which should be com- pleted in April 1974. The commercial prospects of the hotel will be enhanced if the transport facilities in the region are improved. Germany plans also to finace vessels for Lake transport between Gisenyi and Kibouye. ANNEX 4 Page 3 (iii) At the Akagera: Belgium has approved funds for the extension to 60 rooms and revamping of the existing guest house in Gabiro and con- struction if a 60-room guest house in the park to Lake Ihama. STudies for these projects are due to start shortly. (iv) In Kigali Belgium plans to finance a 24--room extension of the "Hotel des Diplomates" which would then be used as a training center. Sabena intends to expand its hotel to 200 rooms if the first 60 rooms prove successful. With the openinq of the two planned hotels in Kibouye and Gisenyi, hopefully in conjunction with German and Danish tour operators, tourism traffic to ,wanda could reach 15,000 people in 1980 spending over US$2 million of which about US$1.2 million would be net foreign exchange earnings. The average daily expenditure would diminish and the length of stay would increase as beach tourism on Lake Kivu develops. 6. At present training needs are taken care of by on-the-job training. The new hotel projects will expand needs to an estimated 30 people per annum. A hotel school to be established in the expanded "Hotel des Diplomates" with Belgian assistance, will take care of this need. Training of guides will start soon under the responsibility of the Office du Tourisme. The Roads 7. Rwanda's road network is improving rapidly. If the ongoing feasi- bility studies of the improvements of the Citarama-Kibouye and Kigali- Ruhengeri roads lead to reconstruction of the two roads, all the roads of tourism importance will be easily passable all 7ear-round. The Parks 3. Rwanda has two national parks: the Parc National del l'Akagera to the East and the Parc National des Volcans to the North. Both parks were established before the independence and have deteriorated lately due to poaching and encroachment by local population. As land is scarce and population pres- sures strong the Ministry of Agriculture, which was responsible for Pa ks until June 1973, allowed parkland to be diverted to accommodate agricultural projects. The Volcanoes Park was deprived of 8,000 ha (out of 22,000 ha) to make room for a EDP-financed pyrethrum project. An IDA-financed livestock projeit reduced by 8,000 ha the 60,000 ha Mutara hunting domain near the Akageka Park. The ongoing UNDP study for the drainage of the Akagera river and lakes system for irrigation in Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, should focus on the possibly detrimental effects on environment in the 250,000 ha Akagera Park. It is to be expected that the implementation of the project would endanger the wildlife and the Park. ANNE X 4 Page 4 9. The prospects of the Parks have recently brightened. Park admin- istration has been transferred from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Office du Tourisme, and following the change of government of July 5 strong measures have been taken against poachers. Belgium intends to provide financing for Park administration and protection. The basic question, however, remains: what is the best economic use of the land now reserved for Parks in view of the high population pressures" The answer to this urgent questions would help Rwanda in planning its tourism and agriculture policies and its land use policies in general. International Cooperation 10. Rwanda's tourism authorities are aware that their assets are best exploited as part of a "western circuit tourism" together with Uganda and Zaire. Such a circuit would provide an alternative to the circuits in Kenya and Tanzania. The development of Lake Kivu has to be considered in a regional framework by Zaire and Rwanda. Cooperation between Zaire and Rwanda, which was difficult until recently, is improving. Conclusion 11. Over the next 3-4 years, the oDening of modern accommodation on Kibu Lake, supplementing the existing accommodation in Kigali, will contribute the substantial growth of the tourism sector in Rwanda. Longer term prospects for the sector will become clearer in the light of the experience gained from the operations of the new capacity. ANNEX 5 Page 1 DEVELOPMENT PLANNING General 1. The Rwanda's Constitution stipulates that the "National Economy is organized according to development plans". Development planning began in independent Rwanda with the preparation of a Provisional Emergency Plan for 1966-70. Under the Belgian administration, a Ten Year Plan 1952-61 served as a guideline for public investment in Rwarda and Burundi. Just before independence, a study sponsored by the European Economic Community was prepared for directing the development efforts of the two countries. 2. The first Five Year Plan, (Provisional Emergency Plan, 1966-70), modestly sub-titled "Study of Development", consisted of a list of projects, the bulk of which was to be financed through external resources, and the remaining through domestic resources and labor contributions. In view of the foresseable difficulties in executing the overall program, part of it was designated as "priority tranche", representing some 80% of the objectives. 3. The technical preparation of the second Five Year Plan (1972-76) was completed by April 1973, but approval by the Government was delayed because of political events which eventually led to the military coup of July 5, 1973. The supreme decision-making body in the new Government is "Committee for Peace and National Unity", composed of the President of the Republic and 9 army officers. The cabinet comprises 13 ministers, mostly former civil servants. The Government rejected the draft plan and ordered a new draft with heavier emphasis on rural development. 1. Planning Machinery Ministry of Planning 4. The Ministry of Planning and Natural Resources is the central planning agency in Rwanda. It came into existence as State Secretariat for Planning in 1968 and became a Ministry after the change of regime in July 1973. The responsibilities of the Ministry were briefly outlined by the new President of the Republic in his program-speech in August. He emphasized the need to prepare an overall plan for the development of the country. 5. Internal organization of the Ministry of Planning and Natural Resources has not yet been defined. Apparently, two General Directorates would be created: one for the Plan and the other for Natural Resources. The latter would deal with energy, geology and cartography. The General Directorate for Planning under the direction of the General Secretary of the Ministry is likely to be organized roughly along the same lines as the former State Secretariat for Planning (Appendix 1). ANNEX 5 Page 2 6. Four Rwandese professionals involved in planning activities in addition to the staff dealing with control and statistics. There are 7 foreign experts in the Ministry, provided by UNDP and the French bilateral assistance. Planning Units 7. The Ministries of Agriculture and Education have each a planning unit. Other ministries do not have a formal unit. Even where they exist, the units tend to be bypassed by operational units. The Central Bank, OCIR have units under various names that help to the formulation of policies or programs. Except for ad hoc commission work specifically ordered by the authorities, there is no continuous working level relationship or planning, project preparation and evaluation between the units and the Ministry of Planning. Planning Commissions 8. For the preparation of the second Five Year Plan, a Provincial Planning Commission was set up in each of the 10 Provinces. Without proper guidance from the central planning and without any expertise the final output of these Commissions proved unsatisfactory. Later, Sectoral Commissions at national level were set-up under the responsibility of General Secretary of the relevant Ministry. They were asked to make proposals for well defined projects. Again an overall guidance was lacking. Most of the Commissions produced proposals that were far in excess of financial or other resources. An adjustment was made difficult because priority attached to various proposals was not clear, interrelations of projects or of sectors were not spelled out. Some adjustment was made, however, with the help of a macro framework prepared by the UNDP-assisted team, by the Coordination Committee composed of the chairmen and rapporteurs of sectoral commissions. II. Implementation of Plan and Policies 9. The planning office issued progress report on the implementation of the First Five Year Plan. These reports were descriptive and did not propose adjustments of programs and policies. Implementation of the first Plan was hampered by lack of funds and personnel and by inadequate development administration. To the extent that disbursements are an indication of project implementation, about 70% of the planned investment included in the "priority tranche" was realized. This percentage was about the same for external and domestic sources. The rate of implementation was somewhat higher than average in the social sectors (health, education) and lower in more directly productive sectors, including infrastructure investment. 10. The second plan was never officially approved, although most of its objectives were agreeable to the new Government. It is not possible therefore to evaluate its implementation. The project and plan formulation and implementation mechanisms as they stand now suggest the following observations. ANNEX 5 Page 3 11. A systematic evaluation of performance and progress of 'mplement- ation - crucial for future improvement - is impossible, owing both to the way in which plans are formulated and to the multiplicity of uncoordinated executing agencies. 12. The draft plan does not express clear cut policy options. Even when it does go beyond the statement of generally desirable objectives, the means to be used and timing are not usually quantified. Announced programs are invariably so much below what is generally needed in the country that, they are left open-ended. Any additional project, proposed by an outside agency is simply welcomed, without any possibility of verfying whether it fits into the plan or not. Admittedly the statistical data-base available in the country does not permit refined quantitative formulation, but much the bigger problem seems to be the lack of direction and focus. 13. Budget prepration is not rela:ed to the plan implementation. Ordinary budgets are prepared annually 1y the Ministry of Finance. They are based on this Ministry's evaluation of (xpected revenues and expenditures. Expenditure proposals originate from spending ministries and they are "trimmed" by the Ministry of Finance. Neither at the stage of original proposal, nor, especially, at the stage of budgeting is there any mechanism to assure adherence to plan objectives. As, starting from 1974 the Develop- ment Budget preparation and execution also come under the Ministry of Finance this problem becomes even more important. In the new set-up, however, the consistence between Ordinary Budget and Development Budget provisions may be easier to achieve. Project Preparation 14. Executing ministries and numerous agencies are responsible for the initiation, preparation and execution of projects. More often, however, the project proposal comes from external assistance sources. Most of the preparation work is also done by outside agencies. Major projects are prepared by con- sulting firms. III. Present Requirements for the Planning Process 15. The first priority is the proper organizing and staffing of the Ministry of Planning. There is no need for a great number of units. In view of the staff constraints and the straight forward nature of economic planning in Rwanda, the Ministry can operate more effectively with a,less elaborate and more flexible organization that it had before the change of regime. Staffing is the key issue. For the moment, foreign advisers have no program for training counterparts. Measures should be taken fo hire additional staff and to prepare an on-the-job training program with the foreign advisers, in relationship with a program fo works to be done. ANNEX 5 Page 4 Planning Commissions 16. The Commission for Coordination, set up for the plan preparation, should meet at least twice a year, to formulate the program of works and determine the contributions which could be expected from each ministry and region and to supervise implementation of this program. To follow up projects and programs, the sectoral commissions should be reduced to a hard core of technicians and should meet quite frequently with precise agendas. Each sectoral commission would be comprised of a maximum of five to six permanent members from the Ministry of Planning and the ministry concerned. When needed, additional specialists would also be invited to the meetings. Regionalization 17. The program-speech by the President of the Republic emphasized the necessity of considering the "commuies" as the basic units for organizing all development planning efforts although their weaknesses in terms of resources and qualified staff are acknowledged. However, some results gained here and there suggest that interesting possibilities exist within these structures. They could be systematically explored, initiated and organized within the framework of regional programs preparation and implementation. These regional programs would essentially be regional operations for integrated rural development, and would form the very substance of the second develop- ment plan. The draft plan could be used as a macro-economic and policy framework for the preparation of regional programs. It would be revised after regional programs are formulated to insure their consistency with overall as well as sectoral objectives aad means. 18. It is obviously difficult to create project and sectoral program preparation capacity in all the ministries and agencies at the present time. The Ministry of Planning envisions the creation of a central bureau for project preparation. This bureau would bring under one roof hitherto scattered tech- nical manpower and obviate the need to create separate planning units in the Ministries. Despite its apparent rationality, however, this approach presents more inconveniences than advantages. The project formulation cannot and should not be drastically separated from implementation. Operating ministries and agencies do need technical staff for other tasks than project prepara- tion; as a result the envisaged measure may turn out to be costlier than the present system in terms of technical manpower. Finally, to be of practical use, the proposed project bureau would have to be too voluminous (in order to have all the specialized experts required for project prepara- tion) compared to the available resources of the country and compared to the project preparation work-load that can be anticipated. 19. This is not to say that the Ministry of Planning should not have sectoral specialists on its staff. These specialists should, however, have the responsibility of sectoral policy formulation, with the help of experts in the operational ministries. Their responsibility in the matter ANNEX 5 Page 5 of projects should be that of project evaluation and coordination of project activities (including preparation) in the ministries and agenciep. They could also do an extremely useful work by standardizing project preparation and evaluation procedures, disseminating standard projects and initiating project ideas. Foreign Aid coordination 20. As noted earlier, external assistance provides the bulk of public investment finance. There is no mechanism to ensure coordination between foreign aid and the Plan objectives. The Ministry of Planning does not have sufficient authority to ascertain that projects submitted to foreign sources by operating ministries or agencies through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs correspond to what was.decided in the Plan. This is probably the most important single impedimeat to orderly plan implementation. Control over implementation is therefore weak, diffused among various governmental bodies and external agencies and devoid of a general purpose and direction. 21. An efficient use of external assistance in general and technical assistance in particular presupposes an adequate plan and project formulation. But a mechanism is also necessary to translate the plan objectives into actual foreign aid requirements, in terms of capital and manpower, and to assure the evaluation of performance. The Ministry of Planning should have a clear view of available Rwandese management and technical personnel and formulate technical assistance programs accordingly.  ANNEX 5 - APPENDIX 1 CHART OF THE FORMER STATE SECRETARIAT FOR PLANNING STATE SECRETARY FOR PLANNING GCOERAL DIECTORATE OF, THE PIAN FI DIRECTORATE OF DIRECTORATE OF STATISTICS AND DIRECTORATE OF MANAGEMENT AND DOCUMENTATION HUMAN RESOURCES ORGANIZATION D SN DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION DIVISION OF OOF OF OF LSTATISTICS DOCUMENTATION NATIONAL TECHNICAL MANAG STUDIES FROGRAMISNG S.T.A FDORESOURCES ASSISTANCE MAIL OVERALL PROGRMS AND PLANNING FILES INVESTMENTS REGIONAL ADMINIST. PLANNING EXPENSE CONTROL