Rwanda - Recent economic development and prospects (Vol. 1 of 3) : Main report

Report No. 422a-RW 4, Recent Economic Development and Prospects of Rwanda (In Three Volumes) Volume 1: The Main Report July 24, 1974 Eastern Africa kegion Not for Public Use Document of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Development Association This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Croup authorization- The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS AND UNITS Currency Unit Rwandese Franc (RwF) Through December 1971 US$ 1.00 RwF 100.00 December 1971 through February 1973 US$ 1.00 RwF 92..10 February 1973 through January 1274 RwF Floating with Belgian Franc November 1973 Trade conversion factor US$ 1.00 82.90 Since January 1974 US$ 1.00 92.80 FISCAL YEAR Januar,y 1 to December 31  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA PWS SURMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...................... - ii I. INTRODUCTION . ................................1 II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVFLOPMENT .... ............. 3 A. Income and Economic Growth .... ......... 3 B. Investment and Saving .... .............. 4 C. Public Finance ..... .................... 7 D. Money and Prices ..... .................. 12 E. Balance of Payments ..... ............... 13 F. External Assistance .... ................ 15 III. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT ..... ................... 18 A. Agriculture and Rural Develorment ...... 18 B. Education and Manpower ............. 21 C. Tourism ................................ 24 D). TTnI'41, Tn1+ry, "tilties and Transport 25 IV. DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT AND PROSPECTS ........ 29 A. Integrated and Balanced Approach to Development .......................... 30 B. Coordinated Policies and Planning ...... 31 C. Illustrative Projections ..... ........... 32 This renort is based on the findings of a mission that visited Rwanida in October- November 1973. The mission was comnosed of Attila Sonmez (mission chief), RoRer Key (economist), Georges Kevers (consultant), Hubert Oldenhove (conisultant), Cornelius van Dilck (consultant), J6rome Chevallier (planning sDec$alist), Jean-Frangois Bauer (tourism expert). Sunport to the mission was extended by Mohamadou Diop (Young Professional).  LIST OF TEXT TABLES Page No. Table 1 Gross Domestic Products, Selected Years 3 Table 2 Resources and Uses (1968-72) 5 Table 3 Gross Capital Formation, Selected Years __ 6 Table 4 Distribution of Public Investment, 1972 6 Table 5 Government Current Revenues, 1966-72 8 Table 6 Overall Government Finance, 1966-72 10 Table 7 Farmer's Terms of Trade 12 Table 8 Summary Balance of Payments, 1968-72 13 Table 9 Composition of Imports, 1968-72 14 Table 10 Losses from Terms of Trade 15 Table 11 External Assistance Commitments 16 Table 12 Technical Assistance Personnel, 1969-72 17 Table 13 Resources and Uses, 1972-1980 33 Table 14 Resources and Uses, 1972-1980 (as percent 34 of GDP) LIST OF MAPS Map 1 Relief Map 2 Population Density, 1970 Map 3 Location of Agricultural and Tourism Projects Map 4 International Transport Connections  Page t o2 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - RWANDA AREA 2/ POPULATION DENSITY 26,340 kmr 3.9 million (mfd-t9M2) 144 per km'as Rate of Growth: 3.0 (1960 to 1970) 310 per km2 /of arable land POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (197Q) NIALTH (1972) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) t 50 Population per physicitn I ',0 0 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) : 22 Popuilation per hospital beds 75o Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births): 133 INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1972) DISTRlBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP_QIj72) 7. of national income, nign.et quintileb . 7. owned by top 10% of owners: lowest quintile: %.. 7 owned by smallest 10% of ow nerrs : ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1972) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1972) % of population - urbans ,. % of population - urban: - rural: - rural: NUTRITION (1970) EDUCATION (1970) Calorie intake as % of requirements: 80 Adult literacy rate %: 23 Per capita protein intake: 50 gr. Primary school enrollment '. 60 1/ GNP PER CAPITA in 1972 : US $ 60 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 ANNUAL RATE OF GROhITH (/, constant_prices) US $ Mln. % 1960-65 1968-72 1972 GNP at Market Prices 241.2 100.0 *- 6.0 3.5 Gross Domestic Investment 23.4 9.7 .. 14.0 37.5 Gross National Saving 7.8 3.2 .. 13.8 - 3.0 Current Account Balance - .15.6 -6.5 Exports of Goods, NFS 20.4 8.4 6.P -6.o lmports of Goods, NFS 40.0 16.5 12.6 - 3.0 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1972 2/ Value Added Labor Forcer V. A. Per Worker UgS Mln. 7 hus. % US Agriculture 146.8 63.5 1636 94.0 69.7 67.5 Induatry 23.2 10.0 19 1.1 122.1 J1.9 Services 61.3 26.5 31 1.8 197.7 i48.7 Unallocated . . 54 .-1- Total/Average 231-3 100.0 1740 100.0 132.9 100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANCE General Government Central Governmenti (_____ Ml.) 7. of GDP ( Mln.) _ % of GDP 1972 1972 1968-7 1972 E92. 198-772 Current Raeceipts .. .. .. 1874 8.2 8.1 Current Expenditure 2338 1(.3 8.6 Current Surplus .. .. .. - - 5 Capital Expenditures .. .. ,. 1142 5.0 h.0 External Assistance (net) .. .. .. 1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1970 market prices, calculated by the same conversion technique as the 1972 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 2/ In 1970. Unallocated include unemployed, people without occupation for health reasons, old age, etc. Statistics available refer to occupational distribution of population above 15 years, i.e. not exactly to labor force. E Excluding external assistance. not available not applicable  Page 2 *f 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - RWANDA MONEY. CREDIT and PRICES 1969 1970 1971 1972 t.r1i_ion of RwF outstanding end period) Money and Quasi Money 1,858 2,_88 2,536 2,629 Bank Credit to Public Sector 1,5 9 i1345 2,588 2,3o6 Bank Credit to Private Sector 289 507 686 468 (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 9.8 10.1 11.4 1'.8 General Price Index (1963 = 100)v 102.1 105.2 108.3 116.6 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index .7 3.0 2.9 7.6 Bank credit to Public Sector 33.8 -13.1 92.4 -10.9 Bank credit to Private Sector 27.4 75.7 35.2 -34.8 AILANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1970-7?) 1970 1971 1972 US $ Mln 7, (Millions US $) Coffee 11. 5I.T5 Tea 1.4i 6.2 Exports of Goods, NFS 25.3 22.7 20.4 Pyrethrwn .5 2.2 I3ports of Goods, NFS 33.5 38.0 40.0 Cassiterite 4.8 21.3 Resource Gap (deficit - -) -8.2 -15.3 -- Wolfram 3.0 13.3 Interest Payments (net) .6 _ All other commodities 1.2 5.3 Workers' Remittances .5 .9 .8 Total 22.5 100o Other Factor Payments (net) - - Net Transfers 1.3 2.1 3.0 EXTERNAL DEBT. DECEMBER 31, 1972 Balance on Current Account -6. -1T7 IT US Mln Direct Foreign Investment .2 .2 .9 Net MLT Borrowing Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 3.0 Disbursements .2 .2 .9 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Amortization .2 Total outstanding & Disbursed Subtotal - -.1 2/ Capital Grants 7.3 5.6 5.8 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1972- Other Capital (net) -.1 1.0 .5 7 Other items n.e.i 2.5 2.0 2.0 Errors & Omissions .e 1.8 2.0 Public Debt. incl. guaranteed 2.3 Increase in Reserves () .3 -1.1 7 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Gross Reserves (end year) 8.6 7.7 6.6 Total outstanding & Disbursed Net Reserves (end year) 3.5 5.2 3.5 RAS2 OF EXCHANGaE IBRD/IDA LENDING. February 1974 (Million US $) Through Feb. 1973 IBRD IDA US $ 1.00 - RwF 92.1 RwF 1.00 ' US $ .108 Outstanding & Disbursed - 3.5 Unds.bursed - 8.8 Since Jan. 197L Outstanding incl. Undisbursed - 2.3 US $ 1.00 - RuF 92.8 RwF 1.00 = US $.0108 1/ Kigali and Nyambirambo general consumer price index. ?I Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services. Before December 1971 the exchange rate was US$ 1 - RwF 100. Between February 1973 and January l15"h, the rate was floating with a central rate of US$ 1 = RwF 82.9. not available not applicable - nil or negligible March 114, 1974 ElCP II  F~~~~~~~~~~~ 29- 30