Madagascar - Economic development

Rteport No. 167a-MAG The Economic Development *n of Madagascar LhUL L kAa;n !cssu ie lp v UlAII I 13la ju... liuly 15, 1974 Iast Africa Nqot for Public Use I-Y iocument of the Intonmitinrl, Riank fnir RPrn nstri'utifin and flev eo(pnm.nt International Development Association This report was prepared for off ilal use only by the Bink Croup. It may not be published, quoted or (ited without Bank Grour) authornzation. The Bdtik CrouJp does not a( opt responsibility for the accturacy or completoness ot the report.  Standards: Metric Fiscal Year: January 1st - December 31st Currency: Malagasy Franc (FMG) Rate of Exchange: Up to August 1969: US$ 1.00 = FMG 246.85 FICTh 1.00 = UP$ 0.00405 From August 1969: US$ 1.00 = FMG 277.71 FMG 1.00 = US$ 0.00360 From December 1971: US$ 1.00 = FMG 255.79 FkNG 1.00 = US$ 0.00391 From February 1973: U&$ 1.00 = FMG 230.21 Fmr, 1.00) = TS$ _.n - _  This Report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Madagascar in October-November 1972 and which was composed of: Alphonse Giritzburger Chief of Mission Atle Elsaas Fiscal Economist Michel Herve (UTmESCO) Fducation Economist Martin Hyde (FAO) Agricultural Economist Douglas Keare Urban Econ'omist Andre L6oni Statistician Jacques NMarinet (Consultant) Agronomist Hans Thias Education Economist lMlonique Cohen Research Assistant, Urban Development Arlette Croize secretary Frank Lawson and Jacques Yenry contributed information on the transport sector.   Page 1 of 2 pages ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices) US$ Mln. % 1967 -71 1972 GNP at Market Prices 1,041 10ooo 3.6 1/ - 3.2 1/ Gross Domestic Investment 148 14.2 4.1 -24.5 Gross National Saving 89 8.5 3.7 i/ -10.7 2 Current Account Balance - 59 -5.7 Exports of Goods, NFS 199 19.1 3.4 - 1.9 Imports of Goods, NFS 2314 22.5 3.7 -14.3 tM?flTJl *^RIn .FORC'E ATND U1.Uvlt un-Jf rUvJ, nt PRODUCTIVITY IN 1970 3/ Value Added Labor Force-' V. A. Per Worker '3S$ Mln. Ml n. -% US $ 9 Agriculture 265 29.5 2.6 81.3 103 36 Industry 267 29.7 0.2 6.2 1,335 475 Services 368 140.9 0.4 12.5 920 327 Unallocated Total/Average 99 100.0 . 2 -100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANCE GOVR N F EGeneral Government -/ Central Government 70 or uiir ~ ~FMG Blin. Ur 7 7 2 19 73) 197 2i 1 9~ -7 19Td 1972 >- l 170- 72 Current Receipts 52.5 52.3 19.2 20.8 41.4 15.2 15.7 Current Expenditure 49.1 50.4 18.0 18. . h7 12.7 12.5 Current Surplus 3.14 1.9 1.2 , 6.7 3 Capital Expendituresj 18.8 11.6 6.9 4 9 15.0 5.5 4.9 External Assistance (net) 3.5 5.4 1.3 1.5 MONEY. CREDIT and PRICES 1966 1%9 1970 1971 1972 1971 mTBillion FMG outstanding end periodT M.oney and Quasi Mone L4. 45.f5.3 55.9 I236. *s..ls~JSt.. *tac onh3eyJ .)4 LA.; .t * 3 J lu ^ .-) ~ U Bank credit to Public Sector _ 6.1 0.9 - 3.4 - 4.0 1.2 1.5 Bank Credit to Private Sector 31.2 41.2 48.5 54.8 55.4 55.4 (Prcentagee or Lindex Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 18.8 20.14 21.0 20.9 23.1 Ceneral Price Index (1963 - 100) 108.4 114.5 117.8 124.2 130.2 148.7 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index 2.7 3.8 2.9 5.4 4.8 14.4 Bank credit to Public Sector .. . . . . 25.0 Bank credit to Private Sector . 5.5 17.7 13.0 1.1 0.0 NOTE: All conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 1/ GDP :/ Domestic Savings 2/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "Unallocated" consists n,air',- of unmployed workers seeking5 tfhe4flr fl1*rst Jo0b. 4/ Budwetn of the Central Government and of the provincial eovernments and the annexed budgets. j/ Capital expenditures do not include those financed by foreign grants. not available not applicable  Page 2 of 2 ?ages TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLWS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1970-72) 970 1971 1972 IJS $ Mln 7 (Millinns US $) Exports of Goods, NFS 171.0 185.8 199.0 Coffee 41.2 28.6 I,,rt ' o.,as, NFS' 196uc.2 24h.9 2"6Coe 79 1. R.C-,oirTcG 03P (dcficit --) -2 - 5T9. 1 - 35. Vanilla 13.6 9.4 Beef 13.2 9.1 .,;:vresr iaymonsc (n.u) - 1.9 - 2.6 - 2.2 Sugar 5.1 3.5 Wurkers' RemiLtances - 8.6 - 8.6 - 9.0 Minerals 6.4 4.4 Other Factor PaymenLs (net) - 11.1 - 12.5 - 14.9 Nes Transfers - 1.8 _3.2 2.3 All other commodities 46.9 32.5 halance on Curvent Accounit - 48.6 79.6 - 9.3 100,0 Direct Foreisn Investment 0.4 3.2 - 0.4 EXTERNAL DEBT. DECEMBER 31. 1973 Net MLT Borrowing 04 sbursemnents (9. n9) tl IN.3 f11.2' -S $Ml Amortization (L.o) Y6.os Subtotal 4.9 9.1 5.2 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 116.5 Gapital Grants 66.3 oo!6 6w.0 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt OtHer Capital (net) - 3.6 _ - 0.8 Total outstanding & Disbursed Other items n.e.i 4.3 - 2.4 1.9 l/ Increase in Reserves (+) 23.7 - 3.1 12.5 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1973:" Gross Reserves (end year) 60.0 54.8 73.5 Net Reserves (end year) 49.9 46.8 59.3 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 4.1 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Fiel and Related Materials Total outstanding & Disbursed Imports 9.6 10.5 13.4 of which: Petroleum 9.6 10.5 13.4 Exportsof Refned Products 56 5. 6- E--ports, of Refined Products .6 5.3 6.5 IBRD/IDA LENDING.M 31, 1974 (Million US $): IBRD IDA RATE OF EXCHANGE o ?arq". Dec. 13071 , 197 Outstanding & Disbursed 10.6 25.7 Since Jan. 1972 Undisbursed 15.2 35.5 US $ 1.00 = F.W 277.71 US $ 1.00 = FMG 255.79 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 257 61.2 FMo 1.00 = us $ 0.00360 FMO 1.00 = US $ 0,00391 1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services. 2/ Prior to exchange adjustments. not available not applicable June 21, 1974 Eastern Africa Regional Office  ble~~~~.goi oyrez MALAGASY REPUBLIC ;, 0 RAINFALL AND RELIEF 0~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Bel _l mojungo :g ng- A ?_, _ _ _ _ ------- __TROPIC_F_CPRlCORN c m per year m \ tY <0 ELEVATION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 0- 600m 600-1200 1200-lSOO -ve ISOOm _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ v 0 v 0 15 20 2 50 KMl JUNE 1968 IBRD - 1727   KAA AI Ar. AQCV Prpi IRi I r FERAR1 |IA_A_A_ 8 | 5_