Niger - Current economic position and development prospects (Vol. 1 of 3) : Main report

Report No. 487a-NIR Current Econormic Position and Development P'rospects of Niger FILE COPY (In Three Volumes) Volume 1: Main Report August 20, 1974 Western Africa Regional Office Not for Pu'blic Use Document of4'he International Bank fDr Reconstruction and Development International Development Association L - 1 This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Gl'oup authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or cDmpleteness of the report.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Before 1969: US$1.00 = CF'AF 247 1969-1971: US$1.00 = CFAF 278 1972: US$1.00 = CFAF 252 1973: US$1.00 = CFAF 222 1974 and after: US$1.00 = CFAF 250 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES (Metric System) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.469 acres 1 kilometer (km) = 0.6215 miles 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2047 pounds 1 ton (t) = 1.1023 short tons = 0.9842 long tons 1 liter (1) = 1.057 US quarts FISCAL YEAR October 1 - September 30  CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF NIGER VOLUME I:. MAIN REPORT VOLUME II:: THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR (MAIN REPORT) VOLUME III: THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR (ANNEXES)   CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF NIGER VOLUME I TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Para.No. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRY DATA MAPS SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................. . i PART I - RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ....................... 1 A - General .............**0 .................. 1 1 Economic Growth ................................. . 1 1 Investment and Saving ..*...... .......*O..* .... 1 4 B-Ma-in Sectors .............. ..... ....0........... 3 5 Agriculture ............. ...... ... ... ... 3 5 Mining ............................ ....... ...*. 8 18 Industry ........0............................. 11 28 Transportation ................................... 13 40 Education ................................ ... 15 46 C - Financial Developments ............................. 17 52 Balance of Payments .......................... 0...... 17 52 Merchandise Exports ................................ 19 55 Merchandise Imports ................................ 21 61 External Debt ................................... 23 65 Foreign Aid ....... ....... .......... 23 66 Public Finance .................................... 27 73 The Monetary Sylstem ................................ 31 82 Recent Monetary Developments ................. .... 34 88 Prices ............ . .........*.#.o... ...... ... 34 90  TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page No. Para.No. PART II - DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS . .............................. 36 93 A - The Short-Term Outlook - 1974 and 1975 . ............... 36 97 General Outlook - Rural Incomes ............. ......... 37 101 Budget ............................................... 39 106 Balance of Payments .............. ... ................. h1 112 B - The Longer Term Outlook - Constraints ...... ......... 43 119 Natural Constraints .......... ................. 0 .. 43 119 Population Problems . ................................. 45 125 Economic Dependence ......**.......*****... .***e 48 132 C - Government Development Policies ..................... 49 138 D - Strategies and Prospects ............................. 52 149 Development Objectives ...... ................ 53 152 Stra.tegy for the Rural Sector . ....... . .... 53 155 Components of an Agricultural Program ................ 55 158 1. Rural Development Projects .....* .............. 57 162 2. Irrigation Program .................. 0......... 59 167 3. Livestock Policy . . .. ... .... ... . 62 175 Other Aspects of Agricultural Policy ................. 63 179 Other Sectoral Prospects and Overall.Growth .......... 65 183 Balance of Payments Outlook . ...... ............ 66 187 After the Next Decade *.... ... ......... ..*...... 71 203 STATISTICAL APPENDIX This report is based principally on the findings of a mission that visited Niger in October-November 1973 and was composed of L. de Azcarate (chief), P. Streng (economist), and R. Sordoillet (agricultural consultant). The report was discussed with the Government in April 1975. Because of the important political and economic changes that occurred since the report was written, it was decided to limit its distribution to the staff of the World Bank Group.  LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ASECNA Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique et a Madag,ascar BCEAO Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest BDRN BOAD Banque Ouest Africaine de Developpement CCCE Caisse Ceintrale de Coopdration Economique (France) CEA CommissarLat ' l'Energie Atomique (France) CEAO Communautd Economique de l'Afrique de l'Ouest CFA Communautd Financiere Africaine CFDT Compagnie Fran,aise pour le Developpement des Fibres Textiles CNCA Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole COMINAK Compagnie Miniere d'Akouta CSPPN Caisse de Stabilisation des Prix des Produits du Niger FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (France) FED Fonds Europeen de Developpement FNI Fonds National d'Investissement NIGELEC I NITEX Societe Nigerienne des Textiles OCDN Organisation Commune Dahomey-Niger des Chemins de Fer et des Transports OLANI Office du Lait du Niger OPVN 1/ OURD Overseas Uranium Resource Development Corporation (Japan) SEPANI Societe d'Exploitation des Produits d'Arachide du Niger SHN Societe des Huileries du Niger SICONIGER Societe Industrielle et Commerciale du Niger SNC i/ SOMAIR Societe des Mines de l'Air SONICERAM / SONIFAME ! SOTRAMIL 1 UDEAO Union Dotianiere des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest / UMOA Union MorLntaire Ouest Africaine UNCC Union Nigdrienne de Credit et de Coopdration U/ Mixed enterprise listed in Table 10.6 of the Statistical Appendix. ?J Later transformed into the CEAO.   Page 1 or 3 pages OOUNTRY DATA - NIGER ARIA POPDLATrON DENSITY 1,267,000 kD 2 4i5 lnion (mid-1972)3 32 Ia Per Iceof rahie la nd SOCIAL INDMCATORS Reference Countries N1igar i sensel ** 9 197J O1970 1970 It70 GNP PER CAPIA (ATLAS BASIS) 1 130 90 100 A 120 /b 260 /b DEYGORAPHIC Crude birth rate (per thouaend) 52 /c 52 d 49 /dce 49 44 Crude death rate (per thouAnd) 27 7& 237w 241. 18 22 Infant sortality rate (per thousand live births) 200 Za 94 156 /f Lif expectancy at birth (years) 37 c 42 39 48 42 Oross reproduction rate a 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.0 Populetion growth rate , 3.0 2.9 32.6 028I 21 Population growth rate - urban 6/7 7 7 5 4 Age struoture (percent) 0-l4 44 41 /a 4524 /s 545 42 15-6k. 534 527;a 52N; 52 54. 65 and over 3 7I 37a 3 Dependency ratio A 1.6 1. 7;n 1.1 7n 1.0 /n 1.1 /n llrban population as percent of total 6/h 8 /h 6 /i 12 /J 29 /k Family planning: No of acceptors cumulative (thous.) . -- No. of wers (t of married women) EMPLOYMENT Tot=a labor force (thousands) 770 1,900 /a 2,000 I 7,40C /e 1,600 /eoq Percentage esployed in agriculture 97 917i 88 i 80 7 73 Percentage unemployed 7 I INCOME DISTRIBUTION Percent of national income receired by highest 5% 23 Porcent of national income recei ed by highest 20% 42 Perc.nt of national income receired by lowest 20% 6 Percent of national income recei'ed by lowest 40% 18 IISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNBESHIP % owned by top I0% of ow=ners % owned by awmllest 10% of owner., .. .. HEALTd AND NUTRITION Population per physician 71,000 /r 58,260 75,250 /s 15,94C 14,940 Population per nursing person 7.500 70,r 7,040 16,090 7i 1,950 2,1410 Population per hospital bed 1,880 =t 2,230 640 - 1,040 /u 730 /u Par capite calorie oupply as % O' requiremnts . 90 /V 98 85 is' 96 Is Per capita protein sumply, total (grams per day 66 78 7v 63 597; 64 7; Of which, animal and pulse 24 7; 9 24 Z: 28 7; Death rote 1-1. years /7 EDUCATION Adjusted /8 prinary school enrolment ratio 6 14 37 25 /a 44 /f Adjusted L secondary school enrOllment ratio 0.3 Is 1 3 9 Ea 7 7; Tears of schooling provided, firot and second level 13- 13 14 12 13 Vocational enrollment as S of sa,. school enrollment 4 /w 6Ls 3 1 /a 12 /a Adult literacy rate S . . 19 7; 10 7i HDUSINO Average No. of persons per room (urban) 1.9 /a. 2.5 /ae Percent of occuPied units without piped water 78 7ah 36 ~ tab Access to electricity (as S of total population) 16 aa 26 7,A. Percent of tural poPulation conoc.ted to electricity O O CONSUMPION Radio receivers per 1000 population 1 36 20 12 /f 69 Passenger cars per lOUO populaticn 0.6 A 1 2 2 11 Ilectric power consumption (kwh p. c.) 3 9 32 25 84 Newsprint consumption p.c. kg per year 0.03 /ao 0.04 0.2 0.06 Notess Figures refer either to the :tateat periods or to account of enviroumental temparture, body weightes, and the letest years. Latest periods re'er in principle to distribution by age and mox of ational populatios. the years 1956-60 or 1966-70j the la' est years in prin- / Protein standards (requirmnta) for all countries as estab- ciple to 1960 and 1970. lAshed by USDA Bconomio Research Service provide for a minimum A The Per Capita GNP aetimate is a1 oert prices for allowance of 60 grams of total protein per day, and 20 grass of yearo other than 1960,calculated by the eane conversion animal and pulse protein, of which 10 grama should be animal technique as the 1972 World Bank Atlas. protein. These standards are somewhat lower than those of 75 2 Average number of daughters per woman of reproductive grams of total protein and 23 grams of animal ,rotein as an age. average for the world, proposed by FAO in the Ihird World Food 4 Population growth rtes are for ' he decades ending in Survey. 1960 and 1970. 7 Sone studies have sugested that cude death rates of children A R atio of under 15 end 65 -ad ove, age breakets to ages 1 throug 4 may be used ase first approxioatien index of those in labor force bracket of sges 15 through 64. manutrition. 4 FAO reference standards represent pkhsiological re- Percentage enrolled of oorresponding population of school age quiremtene for moreal activity erd heelth tah, t _ as defined for mhob ocuntry. * Recent Bank lusaioD estimate for mid-1972 is 4.21 .AlJm. Ia 1969; /b 1972; /0 1959-60; /d 1965-70, uN estimate; /I Estimatej If 19681 /g 1960-72; As Definition not avairble; - A11 twlohipe ud tn planing areas ad ; district ceonrs; /J Ety-dght towns c cap-Vert region ai the citiesl of Saint-Louis, Thies, Kaolack, Diourbel and Ziguinchor; A. Estimate for dejure population, based on results rf aample survey; 4 1966; 4 Ratio of population undr 15 and 65 and over to total labor force; Lo Estimte hised on the results of a maple arvey and excludes labor force of 11aey city, nomad population ad foreigners; gi PAO esti1ate;6, 1970-71; /r 1962; 4 00verage of data incomplete; t 1963; ho GoverDent hoapital etabliahrants; v 196I 4 lNot inludizg private vocational schools; /x 1965; Public education only; / lNot inclu-g teacber Zrawt; / 19671; Urban only; / AL Senegal has been selected as mn objective country aince its DNP is about three times that of Niger; both countries are in the same geographical area, have similar production patterns (with the same dominant crop -- groundnuts), share the sane monetary syatel. and have about the sane population. h2 November 5, 1974 A.. amjc  Page 2 of 3 pages ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1969 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices) FCFA Bln % 196 -6 196 - 19 GNP at Market Prices 103.0 100.0 Gross Domestic Investment 6.3 6.1 Gross National Saving 4.9 4.8 Current Account Balance - 1.4 - 1.4 Exports of Goods, NFS 10.6 10.3 Imports of Goods, NFS 17.2 16.7 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971 Value Added Labor Force V.A. per Worker FCFA Bln % Mln %_ FCFA Agriculture, Livestock, Fishing 51.95 47.6 Manufacturing 11.92 10.9 Construction 3.07 2.8 Services 40.15 36.8 Public Administration ('8.24) ( 7.6) Other 2.03 1.9 Total/Average 109.12 100.0 . GOVERNMENT FINANCE Central Government FCFA Bln % of GDP 1971/72 1971/72 Current Receipts 12.13 Current Expenditure 11.24 Current Surplus 0.89 Capital Expenditures 2.45 External Assistance 1.33 MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES (IFS) i/ 1965 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 (Million FCFA outstanding end period) Money and Quasi-Money 6,722 9,212 9,596 12,135 12,896 15,504 20,315 Bank Credit to Public Sector (net) -1,046 - 396 -1,652 -2,324 -3,458 _3,402 -7,152 Bank Credit to Private Sector 8,644 10,064 10,047 9,738 10,677 12,464 20,973 Money and Quasi-Money as % of GDP .. 9.4 9.4 11.1 General Price Index (1964 - 100) 2/ 104.0 125.0 125.9 131.2 144.0 160.9 166.3 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index --- 4.7 --- 0.7 4.2 9.8 11.7 3.4 Bank Credit to Public Sector Bank Credit to Private Sector --- 3.9 --- -0.2 -3.1 9.6 16.7 68.3 1/ Data are not strictly comparable with those shown in the Statistical Appendix. 2/ Consumer 'price index, Niamey.  Page 3 of 3 pages TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1970-72) 1970 1971 1972 FCFA Mln f (Million FCFA) Exports of Goods, NFS 16,802 2.8,141 20,640 Groundnut Products 5,504 49.8 Imports of Goods, NFS 25,873 24 268 26 272 Live Animals 1,958 17.7 Resource of Gap -9,071 f7 -,62 Uranium Concentrates 1,449 13.1 Factor Payments (net) - 208 - 218 - 218 Cotton 305 2.8 Private Transfers (net) l 48 - 50 Hides and Skins 245 2.2 Current Balance -9,231 -6,345 -5,800 Onions 233 2.1 Direct Investment and Beans 149 1.3 Other Private Long-Term Other 1,216 11.D Capital (net) 5,193 2,960 1,120 Total Recorded Exports 11,059 loO.0 85.9 Inflow (5,704) (3,171) (1,330) Unrecorded Exports (est.) 1 822 14.1 Outflow (- 511) (- 211) (- 210) Total Merchandise Exports 1MT 100.0 Official Transfers (net) 7,725 7,430 8,700 Government Capital (net) 691 - 84 437 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1973 Inflow (1,050) ( 726) (1,304) US$ Mln Outflow (- 359) (-810) (- 867) Public Debt incl. Guaranteed 116.7 Other Items (ret) -1 815 377 -2,187 G Change in Reserves 2,5 6 733 2,270 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1972 Gross Reserves (end year) 5,561 9,791 12,113 Central Bank (5,200) (8,592) (10,558) Public Debt, incl. Guaranteed 2.9 / Net Reserves (end year)-/ 3,275 7,613 9,883 Central Bank (5,081) (8,580) (10,553) IDA LENDING, DECEMBER 31 , 1974 US$ Mln Petroleum Products Otani and Disbusbre 15-85 Imports - FICFA million 603 1,183 1,392 OUtsadigandisbursed79 - US$ million 2.2 4.3 5.4 Ottnig nl Undisbursed 73.96 - 1,000 tons 51.0 56.9 60.3 Outstanding, i. Undisbursed 23.81 / Exports - - - RATE OF EXCHANGE Through November 1971 US$1.00 - ECFA 277.71 December 1971 through January 1973 US$1.00 - FCFA 255.79 Since February 1973 US$1.00 - FCFA 230.10 FF 1.00 - FCFA 50.0 j Including US$45.3 million undisbursed. / Ratio of external debt service (US$2.3 million) to exports of goods and non-factor services as shown in the balance of payments. Including medium- and long-term foreign liabilities of development banks. g Original principal amount (US$22.1) million) plus adjustment to reflect the devaluation of the United States dollar (US$1.71 million). not available not applicable December 1974   Internatronol Merid,on I I I I