El Salvador - Updating Report on the Economy

CIRCULATING COPY TO BE RETURNED TO REPORTS DESX FILE COPY DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION For Exclusive Use of Bank Group Staff CONFIDENTIAL Report No. 131-ES UPDATING REPORT ON THE ECONOMY OF EL SALVADOR April 18, 1973 Latin America and the Caribbean Department Country Programs I The confidentiality of this report must be strictly observed. It was prepared for exclusive use of the Bank Group Staff. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. To be returned to Reports Desk immediately after use CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 = 0 2.50 SDR = V 2.714 UPDATING REPORT ON THE ECONOMY OF EL SALVADOR Table of Contents Page No. OvUNTRY vATA AP 1860 R !NTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS i - I. Background 1 II. A Profile of Poverty 2 III. Major Sectors 7 IV. Prospects and Creditworthiness 17 STATISTICAL APPENDIX A. Human Resources B. National Accounts C. Balance of Payments D. External Public Debt E. Public Finance F. Money and Banking G. Agriculture H. Other Sectors I. Prices J. Education This report is based on the findings of an economic mission to El Salvador in August 1972 composed of Messrs. Jose Datas-Panero and Marvin R. Brant (Consultant for Agricultural Sector) and prepared by Messrs. Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski and Jose Datas-Panero. Page 1 of 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - EL SALVADOR AREA 2 POPULATION DENSITY 2 20,900 km 3.7 million (mid-1971) 176 per km Rate of Growth: 3.6 (from 1960 to 1970) 448 per km of arable land POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1971) HEALTH (1970) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 43.4 Population per physician 4,300 Crode Death Rate (per 1,000) 8.1 Population per hospital bed 490 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 66.8 INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1965) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (1970) % of national income, lowest quintile 3.5 % owned by top 70% of farm units 75 highest quintile 63.5 % owned by smallest 53% of farm units 6 ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1970) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1970) 7 of population - urban 70.0 % of population - urban 30 - rural 27.0 - rural NUTRITION (1966) EDUCATION (1970) Calorie intake as % of requirements 72.0 Adult literacy rate % 58 Per capita protein intake 44.0 Primary school enrollment % 74 GNP PER CAPITA in 1970-/: US $ 300 CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1971 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices) US $ M1n. % 1960-65 1965-70 1971 GNP at Market Prices 1,062 100.0 6.7 4.5 4.2 Gross Domestic Investment 164 15.4 11.0 -0.3 21.4 Gross National Saving 123 11.6 7.5 2.1 9.1 Current Account Balance - 41 3.9 Exports of Goods, NFS 251 23.6 8.7 3.5 18.8 Imports of Goods, NFS 290 27.3 3.5 3.0 21.7 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971 Value Added Labor Force2/ V.A. Per Worker US $ Mln. % Mn. % US $ % Agriculture 290 27.0 0.51 45.5 569 59.5 Industry 256 23.9 0.22 19.7 1,164 121.6 Services 526 49.1 0.24 21.4 219 22.9 Unemployed . . 0.15 13.4 . . Total/Average 1,072 100.0 1.12 100.0 957 100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANCE General Government Central Government (Colones M1n) % of GDP (Colones M1n.) % of GDP 1971 1971 1968-70 1971 1971 1968-70 Current Receipts 300 11.2 10.5 Current Expenditures 261 9.7 9.6 Current Surplus .. .. 39 1.5 0.9 Capital Expenditures .. .. 60 2.2 1.6 External Assistance (net) .. .. 8 0.3 0.2 1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1970 market prices, calculated by the same conversion technique as the 1972 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 2/ Total labor force; unemployed are not allocated to sector of their normal occupation. not available not applicable Page 2 of 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - EL SALVADOR June MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1965 1969 1970 1971 1971 1972 (Million Colones outstanding end period) Money and Quasi Money 523 653 695 756 701 755 Bank Credit to Public Sector, net 19 96 78 92 67 78 Bank Credit to Private Sector 426 567 602 680 581 662 (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 26.2 27.4 27.1 28.2 General Price Index (1963 = 100) 102.2 101.2 105.8 105.5 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index 1.4 0.5 4.5 - 0.3 Bank credit to Public Sector -48.6 13.9 - 18.4 18.1 . 16.4 Bank credit to Private Sector 6.6 13.6 6.3 12.9 . 13.9 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1969-71) 1969 1970 1971 US $ M1n. % (Millions US $) Exports of Goods, NFS 222 248 251 Coffee 96.6 44.1 Imports of Goods, NFS 247 253 290 Cotton 26.0 11.9 Resource Gap (deficit = -) -25 - 3 -39 Sugar 8.4 3.8 Shrimp 5.2 2.4 Interest Payments (net) - 2 - 2 - 4 All other commodities 83.0 37.8 Workers' Remittances ) 6Total 219.2 100.0 Other Factor Payments (net)) Net Transfers 14 14 18 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1971 Balance on Current Account -19 0 -29 Direct Foreign Investment 7 3 5 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 134 Net MLT Borrowing 13 2 6 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Disbursements 17 9 19 Total outstanding & Disbursed Amortization 4 7 13 Subtotal 20 5 11 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1971 1/ Capital Grants 12 3 7 % Other Capital (net) Other items n.e.i. - 8 7 11 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 6.2 Increase in Reserves (+) + 5 +15 0 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Total outstanding & Disbursed Gross Reserves (end year) 61 72 71 Net Reserves (end year) 37 52 52 RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING, (December 31, 1972) (Million US $): Through - 1971 IBRD IDA US $ 1.00 = Colones 2.5 Outstanding & Disbursed 22.3 13.5 Colones 1.00 = US $ 0.40 Undisbursed 13.9 1.0 Outstanding incl. undisbursed 36.2 14.5 Since - 1971 US $ 1.00 = Colones 2.5 Colones 1.00 = US $ 0.40 1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services. not available not applicable А••/,• wa.�\ � Й� 1. b• геи .� [еод• f ��^•' N.o О.о�•м•�w r � fa�.�..ur„� � . �, /' �.,. . � 1• в.• Е..•.. ` L Г/ \л U Ро..'--��1++ч\. 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PouJti Р�оnоцд Ьу соvлг.у 1ог / . со•�ti��ип,оп а,mp.ovemanr f / G.гг о/ Г � (д 2 Семгаl l�тепсоп f1�g�woys ы : �� г ,. �. г о 1 О : t�,., �° � .-. . � , . fгo�S,г,�J, Г i, �•и .. 1 "д • Е' г � , .,.,., • - у о s �е �s го п ( � ^, I < < У . ..._ . _ .... � - � _-----____ -- - - _- ____ � _ � . .. � ' _ _ - �д•С �и� . SUI IARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. The economy of El Salvador expanded rapiIly in the 1960's - at a real rate of more than 7 percent annually - until 1966--67. This expansion was spurred by the rapid growth in production for export, especially of cotton, and by the rapid development of nanufacturind, itself stimulated ii art by the creation in 1961 of the Central American Common Market (CACM) This favorible combination of factors lost importance after 1966, as the easier import substitution opportunities within CAC- tended to become used up and as cotton production reached a physical limit and dropped sharply as a result o. previous expansion into marginal areas. The lack of dynamism of the economy was accentuated after 1968 by the denressing effect upon private investient of the war with Honduras in mid-1969, an, the uncertain- ties preceding the Presidential elections of 3-arch 1971. From 1968 to 1971, GNP gre-; only modestly at real rates in order of 3 tn 4 percent annually, compared with an annual rate of increase in population of about 3.8 percent so that per ca?pitn incone stagnated or declined. Preliminary estimates for 1972 show some improvement in total growth -- G.P is expected to have risen 7Y about 5.2 percent in real terms - due to favorable export prices for cotton and coffee while little improvement is expected in e:Iorts to the CACH.1 2. As in othet'r economies with rapid indiustrializationi, the buncfits fron rowi have been unevenly distributed in El Salvador aii, the degree Of unequal.ty has probably increased. Clearly, a most pressing, if not tec most pressly, task is to improve the lot of the urban and rural poor. The process of solving the social and economic constraints of El Salvador is made particularly difficult by the combined pressure from a rapid growth of popu- lation, substantial underemployment, the shortag;e and anoven distribution of land and the existence of a backward non-export agricultural sector. 3. During the 1960's desite the often proclaimed need for rapid ;,rowth and social progress, Government efforts at increasing public investment - which averaged about 3 percent of GNP -- did not materialize. however, sub- stantial progress was made in power, transport, and an educational reform. beginnin3 in the late sixties. Development expenditures in other sectors such as health, housing, and water and sewerare, although rising, have been relatively low. Central Government tax revenues have generally also been modest - 10- 11 percent of GDP - and linited the expansion of the Government 's role in development. Public investnent rose sharply in the last two years to about I nercent of GNP, although this proportion is no higher than that prevaili. in the mid sixties. The expansion of public investment was acconpanied by some improvement in public savings in 1971. however, in 1972, as a result of the rapid increase of Central Government current outlays in the face of the virtual stagnation of revenues, there was a decline in public savings. However, the larger financing gap in 1.972 is still modest, although this is so in part because of the still low level of public sector outlays. The increase in public investment in the recent past, as on other occasions, was .air.v the result of the phasing of a few projects in power and construe- .ion rather than basic changes in performance. As a result, disbursements of external long-term loans rose significantly in 1972 although the level of external debt and of debt service remain low. The tax system of El Salvador has not been responsive enough to economic growth and has played only a very modest role in helping to meet the Government's redistributive objec- tives. For the future, basic changes in the tax system and its administra- tion are required if it is to help meet the twin goals of generating suffi- cient public savings and of redistributing some of the benefits of economic expansion. 5. The prospects for the economy of El Salvador depend on the time horizon in which they are seen. In the next two or three years there is likely to be faster growth than in the past as a result of favorable export prices for coffee, cotton, and the beginning of beef exports to the United States. The extent to which this more rapid growth will be used to change the pattern of development will depend on the dynarlism of the new adminis- tration which took office in July 1972. 6. The foreseeable good performance of agricultural exports and the possibilities to increase the inflow of official development assistance will help the Government to implement a badly needed expansion in its public investment progran. Another requirement is to introduce ta- reforms and other structural changes in order to stimulate private investment into activ- ities which will diversify the economy at large and exports in particular. As regards the latter, El Salvador has a basis for expanding exports of manufactures and non- traditional agricultural products outsi_e the CACM, but this will require simnificant changes in existing incentives and institutions. Host of thcse elements aro already incorporated in the receatly approved 1973-77 Development Plan. 7. The external debt of El Salvador will increase faster than in the past if the projected trends take place. At the end of 1971, the external nublic debt of El Salvador repayable in foreign currency totalled $134 million (includin,- $42 million in undisbursed commitments), plus another $34 million repayable in local curr:ncy alist eitirrly to 1DB. The debt service ratio as be.n Inu in the past (5.2. percent in the period 1970--72, including a balv in 1 )71 -72 bcaue of the repanvent by the Central Bank of special loans obtained two years before as a result of the war emergency), reflecting the nredomnlance of long-term loans from official a,-enci s an: the low level of external borrowing of the public sector. For the future, El Salvador has an ample margin to increase its long-term borroing abroad for sound proSrams and projects. On a projected basis, the external public debt repayable in forei-n currency would total about $270 million in 1977, with a debt service ratio of about 3 percent. 3. Beyond the 1970's, however .tie capacity o. . S-ilvador to service its external debt with ease will depend on its success in transforming the - M.i - wcoowry. by diversifyin, th export base and reduci thu X pendence of tic econov on an aSricultural suctor whicA will provide a livelihood for a jiminishin proportion of the population, due to the snortabe of land. Ex- ternal lenders can ease the adjustment process through the volunc and terms of their assistance, but the burden of the effort will lie with the authori-- ties of El Salvador and its private sector. Incentives for the development of manufVctured exports outside Central America - alonS the lines suggested in paranranh 20 - and for the diversification of agriculture towards high value crops will be essential elements in the encouraenrt of a high level KE private investment to promote more rapid growth. UPDATING REPORT ON THE ECONOMY OF EL SALVADOR I. BACKGROUND 1. The basic features of the economy of El Salvador remain largely as described in the last Bank updating report. 1/ That report pointed to the slower rate of economic expansion in the late sixties - the result of the sharp decline in cotton production in 1966 and 1967, and of the sluggish- ness in manufacturing output following the disruption of the Central American Common Market (CACM) after the mid-1969 war between El Salvador and Honduras - to the lack of progress in diversifying economic activity and exports away from coffee - which accounts for close to half of export earnings - and to the noticeably uneven distribution of the benefits of economic growth. The report recommended a much larger public investment effort, with substantially more emphasis than in the past on rural infrastructure and basic social ser- vices, and policies and institutions designed to stimulate private investment towards exports outside Central America. 2. The recommendations of the last Bank report are consistent with the aims of the 1973-77 Development Plan recently approved by the Government of President Arturo Armando Molina, who was elected in March 1972 and took office for a four-year term in July 1972. El Salvador has improved the organization and powers of the Planning Office with the support of the newly elected President, so that the main lines of the Plan have a good chance for sub- stantial implementation. A significant but not unmanageable increase in taxation will be necessary to help finance the public sector outlays proj- ected in the Plan. The major obstacles are likely to be institutional rathEr than financial; moreover significant social reform is likely to be difficult to implement because of the concentration of economic power within a limited economic elite. 3. Clearly, a most pressing, if not the most pressing, task is to improve the lot of the urban and rural poor. El Salvador shares with many other less-developed countries the problems of rapid growth of population, unemployment and uneven income distribution, but in the case of El Salvador the resolution of its social problems is made more difficult by the serious constraint imposed upon agricultural growth by the shortage of land and its uneven distribution. Government programs in agriculture have favored a small group of operators who produce for export, control most of the land and receive most of the income. On the other hand, the farm families engaged in subsistence farming - almost two-fifths of the total population - have received little public assistance. As a result of the low purchasing power of the rural and urban masses the nutritional diet is one of the most defi- cient in Latin America and comparable to that of tht poorest countries in Africa and Asia. The resulting incidence of disease and death is also high. 1/ Current Economic Position and Prospects of El Salvador (Report No. CA-12a), September 24, 1971. - 2 - II. A PROFILE OF POVERTY 4. Although basic statistics on the subject are not comprehensive and are subject to possibly significant margins of error, the dimensions of the problem of poverty can be sketched as follows: (a) According to preliminary estimates prepared by the Development Research Center of the Bank, 40 percent of the population had an annual per capita income of less than $100. According to a survey conducted in 1970 by the National Statistics Office, 58 percent of urban families - averaging about 6 persons - had monthly incomes of less than $100. A similar survey conducted in rural areas in 1970 estimated that over 90 percent of the approximately 300,000 farm units in the country generated less than $1 of income per day for the families occupying them. (b) Housing, health and nutrition are extremely bad for the bulk of the population. Although statistics about the housing "shortage" are unreliable, it is perhaps more illustrative that 57 percent of family units had no direct access to piped water in 1969, and 70 percent did not have access to electricity. A study made in 1968 by a private foundation sponsoring low-cost housing estimated that three-quarters of the population of metropolitan San Salvador lived in shacks and huts. Infant mor- tality rates, at 67 per thousand live births, are not low for the standards of Latin America or for countries in the average income range of El Salvador. According to data prepared by the FAO, 1/ the average per capita nutritional supply in El Salvador in 1966 was 1,840 calories per day - the lowest level in Latin America, except for Haiti - and the average daily per capita protein intake was 44 grams, compared to a mean for Latin America of about 57 grams. The average nutritional intake has been declining in the last decade. (c) The extent of unemployment and underemployment is not accurately known, but as can be expected, there are a number of signs that unemployment is large. Officially estimated direct unemploy- ment in 1971 was about 13 percent of the labor force of 1.12 million, of which about 0.51 million were reported as employed in agriculture. Moreover, direct unemployment appears to have risen rapidly in the last three years. Due to the seasonal nature of a large part of farm work (especially coffee and cotton picking and cane cutting), the agricultural labor force is probably employed only half the time. A more telling indicator of unemployment is the fact that employment in the metropolitan 1/ The State of Food and Agriculture (Rome, 1969). - 3 - San Salvador area - which includes about half of manufacturing and a large part of commerce, and about 12 and 15 percent of the total population - has stagnated at about 80,000 since 1965, while the population of the metropolitan area has ex- panded at an estimated annual rate of about 6 to 7 percent in the last decade. 5. The distribution of income in El Salvador is uneven and broadly representative of that of other small-size developing economies. Inequality is mainly explained by the large proportion of the labor force still engaged in subsistence farming which has been aggravated by the high rate of population growth. Perhaps the most significant feature of the income structure is that the absolute per capita GNP of the poorest 10 percent of the population - estimated at about $45 per year - is well below the level found in most coun- tries. 1/ The distribution of income for the five countries in the Central American Common Market, as shown below, follows the same general pattern and the degree of income inequality appears closely related to levels of per capita national products. Text Table I: COMPARISON OF SIZE INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN CENTRAL AMERICA, 1965-67 (Percent of aggregate income) Income Decile Costa Rica Nicaragua El Salvador honduras Guatemala 1st 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 2nd 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.2 1.2 3rd 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 1.9 4th 4.5 3.6 4.2 3.2 3.0 5th 6.0 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.1 6th 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 7th 8.5 8.2 7.5 8.0 7.0 8th 10.5 10.7 10.5 10.0 10.5 9th 15.0 16.8 18.5 15.0 10.8 10th 41.0 42.5 41.5 48.0 55.1 Top 5 percent 29.5 27.5 27.5 33.3 46.0 Source: La Distribucion del Ingreso en los Paises Centro Americanos. Instituto de Nutricion de Centro America y Panama (UnpublisheL Report, 1970). 1/ Economic Commission for Latin America, Economic Survey of Latin America, 1969 (E/CN.12/851/Add.2), p. 111-68-69. 6. An important feature related to the widespread poverty is that income inequalities appear to be greater in rural than in urban areas. Accord- ing to data for the early 1960's estimated by the United Nations Economic Com- mission for Latin America, the top 5 percent of the rural population received 40 percent of rural income, compared to 26 percent in the case of the top 5 percent of recipients of non-agricultural income. I/ This apparent distribu- tion is in line with the high degree of concentration of agricultural land holdings. According to the preliminary results of the 1970 agricultural census, 1.5 percent (those over 50 hectares) of the 286,000 farm units in the country accounted for 56 percent of the holdings of cultivable land, whereas 94 percent of farm units (those under 10 hectares) accounted for 25 percent of cultivable land holdings (Table 7.1 Appendix). Again here, however, the data reflects not only concentration, but the widespread poverty in rural areas. In fact the larger holdings are relatively small, if compared with the cases of other Latin American countries. For example, the median holding for the next to the top group, comprising 1.2 percent of farm units, was only 96 hectares. The important indicator, however, was that the median holding for farm units under 10 hectares, which include most of the rural population, was only about 2 hectares. 7. has poverty increased or diminished in recent years? There has undoubtedly been a major improvement in certain areas - especially health and education - as shown by the following indicators: average life expec- tancy at birth has increased from 51 years in 1950 to about 63 years in 1968; infant mortality has declined moderately, from 81 per thousand live births in 1950 to 67 in 1970; basic literacy has increased from 38 percent of the population over 15 years of age in 1950 to 58 percent in 1970, while primary school enrollment has increased from 47 percent of the relevant age group in 1960 to 74 percent in 1970; the proportion of the urban population with water piped into their homes rose from 51 percent in 1960 to 70 percent in 1970. However, national averages tend to conceal large inequalities, espe- cially between urban and rural areas. Moreover, despite measurable improve- ment in the last decade in particular, conditions in El Salvador are still in sorae respect - especially in nutrition - well below those in comparable countries. S. The experience of other economies in the process of industrializa- tion, in which the increase of incomes of a limited urban group leads to greater income inequalities, seems to apply also to El Salvador. As shown below, between 1945-46 and 1965-67, the rElative share of the poorest 60 percent of the population - made up mostly of the peasant population - declined sharply from 32 percent of the total to 22 percent and its absolute income level stagnated. The data also confirms the view that the gains from economic growth have mainly benefitted a minority - albeit a significant one - of the population. The gains achieved by the 15 percent of persons below the top 5 percent of the income scale reflects the stage of development of the country 1/ ECLA, op ut., Chapter III, page 404. -5- and the heavy concentration of benefits in the modern sector. Although these data should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude, thk.y point out the relative impoverishment of the bulk of the rural population. This is sup- ported by other indicators; for example, (a) production of basic foodstuffs, Text Table II: ESTIMATED SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN EL SALVADOR Percentage of total income received Income Group 1945-46 1961 1965-67 Poorest 60 percent 32.4 20.8 22.0 Following 20 percent 14.8 17.8 18.0 15 percent below the top 17.4 28.4 36.0 Top 5 percent 35.5 33.0 27.5 Top I percent (22.0) (18.0) (15.0) Source: 1945-46 and 1961: Economic Survey of Latin America, 1969. Economic Commission for Latin America (E/CN.851/Add.2), p. 111-74. 1965-67: La Distribucion del Ingreso en los Paises Centroamericanos. Instituto de Nutricion de Centro America y Panama (Unpublished Report, 1970). the mainstay of small farmers, rose a total of 16 percent in the decade of the 1960's, whereas the rural population rose by 49 percent over the same period; and (b) data published by the Planning Office 1/ show that the percentage of rural families who were either landless or cultivated less than one hectare rose from 59 to 62 percent of the total from 1965 to 1970, while their real income declined by about 5 percent to an average of $50 per person. 9. While government action and investment has been the key to improve- ments in sectors such as.health and education, programs specifically focused at the urban and especially the rural poor are still small. In urban areas, the only program specifically directed against poverty is that of the state urban housing agency (IVU) created in 1951. In the thirteen-year period 1960-72, IVU completed about 14,000 housing units, of which half were built in 1962-66 - at an average unit cost ranging from.$2,000 to $4,000. Most IVU customers have incomes of over $100 per month, whereas the bulk of the housing shortage exists at lower levels. An interesting attempt to tackle the problem of the lower income groups is being made by a private foundation (Fundacion Salvadorena de Desarrollo y Vivienda Minima), supported by local groups and institutions abroad. In the first two years of operation since its establishment in late 1968, the foundation has built about 500 housing units. By employing the labor of the future occupants and using imaginative designs and assembly techniques, the foundation has managed to reduce the 1/ CONAPLAN, Indicadores Economicos, July 1971. cash cost of each unit to about $600-900, or about one-third of the cost of similar units built according to conventional methods. The families reached by the foundation have monthly incomes from $20 to 65 and the total monthly payments ranging from $4 to $7 are within their low financial capability. 10. A more deliberate effort has been made by the Government in the rural sector, but the number of rural families effectively reached by these various programs is still very small - of the order of 10,000 in 1970 out of a total number of rural family units of about 250,000. The Rural Welfare Administration (ABC) was created in 1963 in order to provide credit and ex- tension to small farmers; with the passage of time, however, ABC has found it costly and difficult to assist farms with an area of less than 10 hec- tares - its original mandate - and has concentrated on the smaller cotton farmers, who are of course towards the top of the rural income spectrum. The Rural Colonization Institute (ICR) was established in 1950 to implement land settlement and redistribution. Despite considerable efforts in the earlier part of its career, up to 1970 ICR had settled only 3,300 families on mostly mediocre land, due to the unavailability of good unused agricultural land at prices compatible with its limited financial resources. A third area is that of extension services. In 1972, the Ministry of Agriculture had about 105 extension agents, who gave advice to about 12,000 farms - including farms covered by ABC credit - out of the 286,000 farm units in the country; about half the assistance went to cover corn producers, which include many smaller farmers, so that some of the assistance probably filtered to medium- level farmers. However, the approximately 9,000 hectares of corn acreage covered represented only about 3 percent of the total area under corn. Finally, in 1964, the Government started a program of self-help community works (FOCCO); the achievements of FOCCO have been modest, but a large expansion is foreseen in the 1973-77 Plan. More concrete physical results have been ob- tained in the rural electrification program of the electric power agency (CEL), with financial assistance from the U.S. AID and the Bank Group. The benefits of the program are being studied under the Bank research program, with the help of a group of social scientists at the private university. At present, all villages of more than 300 inhabitants are connected to the main system, although only a minority of the inhabitants in those villages in fact have connections because of the high cost of the connection fee in relation to their income. 11. The impact of programs specifically aimed at diminishing poverty will obviously take a long time to be felt, even assuming that the major institutional and administrative hurdles can be overcome. Such programs will only bu effective if they provide the "package" approach of inputs and services needed to deal directly with the basic causes of poverty. Moreover, their success will depend on coordinating at the national level the efforts of the various institutions involved. The new Plan for 1973-77 emphasizes these aspects and recognizes the insufficiency and lack of coordination of past programs. -7- III. MAJOR SECTORS 12. The economy showed only partial signs in 1971 of breaking out of the slow growth pattern which has prevailed since 1968, when the rapid expan- sion of the early and mid-sixties petered out because of a sharp decline in cotton production and low coffee prices. The recession was sharpened as exports of manufactures to the CACM - which now absorb about 22 percent of total industrial output, excluding sugar - lost their dynamism mainly because of the negative effects of the war of 1969 with Honduras, but also because of the development of competitive production in Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The result was a low level of private investment in 1968 and 1969, especially in manufacturing. There has subsequently been a recovery in private invest- ment, stimulated in part by a substantial increase in public construction. After some recovery in 1970, when the sharp increase of coffee prices in the second half of the year provided a strong stimulus to domestic demand, the overall expansion of the economy was held back in 1971 by the uncertainties normally preceding a Presidential election and a drop of almost 20 percent in the value of coffee exports. These various trends summarized in the Text Table below have resulted in real rates of growth in the period of 1968-71 of the order of 3 to 4 percent annually, against an annual rate of increase of population of about 3.8 percent, 1/ so that per capita income has not risen, and in fact fell in 1968-70. Preliminary estimates for 1972 indicate a sig- nificant improvement in the overall growth rate due to very favorable export prices for cotton and coffee. Exports to the CACM, however, are expected to show little improvement over 1971. 1/ The results of the 1971 Census, not published so far, will show whether the growth rate of population was in fact as high as in the estimates shown in Text Table III. Text Table III: SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 1961-72 Item 1961-67 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 (Average Percent Annual Growth Rates) Total population 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.8 GDP at constant prices 7.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 4.2/a 5.2/a Agriculture, value added at constant prices 3.6 1.8 3.7 6.5 0.5/a 5.6/b Manufacturing, value added at constant prices 10.7 4.4 0.7 3.4 /a 6.0 2.5/b Exports to CACM 32.0 7.2 -11.9 -2.4 9.2 0.5 Cost of living index 1962=100 0.7 2.5 - 0.2 2.4 -0.6 1.4 (Percent of GDP) Ratios to GDP Exports, f.o.b. 22.5 23.1 21.1 22.5 21.3 23.6 Imports, c.i.f. 23.3 23.6 21.9 20.9 23.3 24.0 Gross investment 14.6 11.1 12.7 13.8 15.2 13.7 - private (10.1) (8.3) (8.8) (9.2) (9.6) (9.6) - public ( 3.2) (1.7) (2.7) (2.8) (3.2) (3.4) - charges in inventories (1.3) (1.1) (1.2) (1.8) (2.4) )0.7) Domestic savings 12.3 9.4 9.9 11.2 12.4 9.9 /a Preliminary. 75' Estimate. Source: Appendix Tables 1.1, 2.1, 2.3, 3.2 and 9.1 13. Agriculture provides one quarter of the GDP, employs over one-half of the labor force, accounts for about three-fifths of foreign exchange earn- ings, and continues to dominate the pattern and speed of economic growth. In 1950-71 real agricultural output grew at an annual rate of only 3 percent as compared with a population growth rate of 3.2 percent annually. In the last three years some progress was made in increasing the production of basic grains - to substitute previous imports froTt Honduras, completion of the last stages of the Zapotitan irrigation project, and the beginning of beef exports to the United States. The main problem of Salvadorian agriculture continues to be the low level of technology in non-export agriculture due to the insuf- ficiency of credit, technical assistance and distribution of land-ownership. Of the total national territory of 2.1 million hectares, 682,000 hectares are under crops (with corn using up about 210,000 hectares, coffee 141,600 hec- tares and cotton 62,500 hectares), 915,000 hectares are in pastures - mostly unimproved - and woodland, and the remaining are not usable. Clearly, with the serious land shortage - if the existing land under crops were divided among the existing farm families, each family would get less than 6 hectares - raising productivity on the land becomes the main way to increase agricultural output. The following are some of the key inputs towards this objective: -9- (i) Irrigation and drainage. So far, a modest beginning has been made in taking advantage of the many opportunities for irrigation and drainage, .which would provide a basis for import-substitution of fruits and vegetables, high-yielding production of some export crops, and possibly the development of an intensive livestock industry. The total irrigable area is some 323,000 hectares of which 100,000 hectares have already been studied and were found economically feasible to develop. 1/ A 4,300-hectare project in the Zapotitan Valley near San Salvador is being completed, and a similar one at San Isidro is programmed for, with IDB assistance, the Plan period. The Zapotitan project illustrates the obstacles of irrigation in the future: weak executing capacity, and land tenure problems. The project, a small one, took almost five years to build and put into operation. One of the obstacles has been the legal impediments to forced sale or redistribution of land improved through publicly financed irrigation. Although the 1970 Land Reform Law went some way toward removing this obstacle, parliamentary approval is still required for each specific re- distribution scheme. A forestry law which includes a land taxation proposal is at present pending in Congress; if it is approved and implemented, it could gradually help in the redis- tribution of underutilized land, although experience in other developing countries suggests that actual achievements are likely to be quite limited. 2/ (ii) Rural education and extension services. Agricultural programs are likely to fail unless there is a substantial improvement in rural literacy - at present only about one-third of the adult rural population have minimum literacy - and in the technical assistance available to farmers through extension. The number of extension agents of the Ministry of Agriculture has risen from 70 in 1967 to 105 in 1971, but it is still far below minimum reasonable requirements. There is room, within the overall size of the Plan, for a substantial reallocation of resources toward these purposes. (iii) Rural credit and basic physical inputs. El Salvador has the advantage over many developing countries of already having an institution (ABC) designed for rural credit, although its programs need to be substantially expanded and modified. Results are likely to take time, and are unlikely to affect the bottom economic layers of the rural population (about 25 percent of the rural population is landless), for which employ- ment in rural works is likely to be the only way of increasing income. 1/ Agricultural Sector Analysis, December 1969 (sponsored by the USAID), by Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc., Vol. II, p. 56. 2/ See Ved P. Gandhi, Aspects of Land Taxation in Latin America, proceedings of the Interamerican Taxation Conference, Mexico, 1972. - 1C - 14. The reduction of rural misery in El Salvador faces problems similar to those in other developing countries. However, in the case of El Salvador, the compactness of the national territory and the fact that most of it is accessible by road simplify the task considerably. The 1973-77 Plan does not envisage specific targets in this direction, aside from the broad sectoral allocation of the public investment program. A rough estimate of the re- sources to be devoted to the lower income groups in rural areas, including credit to small farmers, would be about 40 million in the period 1973-77, or about 7-8 percent of total public investment outlays. This is not high in relation to the size of the problem. 15. Production of grains and basic foods, which is concentrated among smallholders (for example, 60 percent of corn production comes from farmers with holdings of less than 5 hectares) appears to have increased rapidly in 1970 and 1971, so that El Salvador is now self-sufficient in corn and has substantially reduced its need to import beans. This improvement has been in response to the closing of trade in 1969, due to the border dispute with Honduras, which had in the past made up the bulk of the corn deficit. Also, the grain marketing agency (IRA) made an effort to purchase from a larger number of farmers (nevertheless in 1971/72 its purchases amounted to only 7 percent of total corn output and 5 percent of rice output); a parallel effort was made by the extension service of the Ministry of Agriculture, which concentrated on corn, beans and livestock. 16. The performance of the two major exports, coffee and cotton - which together account for 55 to 60 percent of merchandise export earnings - con- tinues to be a key determinant of economic activity, even after the substan- tial progress towards a more diversified export base achieved in the 1960's through the development of manufactured exports to CACM. Coffee is the most suitable and profitable crop on much of the hilly terrain which runs from west to east roughly across the middle of the country. Coffee cultivation covers about 23 percent of the total area under crops, and employs - at the peak of the harvest - about 20 percent of the national labor force. In the last decade, El Salvador has faced the problem of mounting coffee surpluses and the situation became particularly acute in the last three years, as plantings made in the period of relatively higher prices of the mid-sixties have begun producing. Accumulated stccks at the end of the crop year ended September 1972 were almost 1.5 million 60 kg. bags out of total annual output of 2.7 million bags and realized exports of 2.2 million bags. While the cost of maintaining the stocks has not so far been unmanageable - except that carry- ing costs have been covered in part by Central Bank medium-term borrowing abroad - the rapid acceleration in the rate of increase of stocks is a source of concern for the future. The medium-term outlook for export coffee prices is good and could offer El Salvador opportunities to reduce its coffee stocks. However, the recent breakdown of the International Coffee Agreement in December 1972 has added a new factor of uncertainty. 17. Diversification of existing coffee land to other purposes poses various problems. The terrain used for coffee is suited for little else, and the returns from the few alternative activities (such as citrus, or cattle in - 11 - some areas) are far below those attainable in coffee. In fact, El Salvador probably has a substantial international comparative advantage in coffee production, due to the very high yields obtained (most producers obtain over one ton of green coffee per hectare, and yields of over two tons are not uncommon). Other important factors are the plentiful supply of labor at low cost and the fact that two-thirds of output comes from 1,500 large farms, which are also efficiently managed. Diversification efforts would probably therefore affect mostly the smaller producers who rely on coffee as a cash crop: 26,000 farms account for 9 percent of the area under coffee and 6 per- cent of the output. Nevertheless, -although there is still room for increas- ing output by raising efficiency further - a point will be reached, if coffee expansion continues unchecked, when diminishing returns are likely to set in as land more suitable for other purposes would be diverted to coffee. More efficient taxation of coffee is essential in order to avoid this danger, as well as for distributive and fiscal reasons. Revenues from exports of coffee are not subject to income tax but to an export tax, the proceeds of which have hovered between 11 and 16 percent of the f.o.b. value of coffee exports in the last decade. This tax is based on a sliding scale, but with low pro- gressivity. As a minimum, a proposal - such as that of the OAS-IDB tax advisory team - for higher rates in the top price brackets should be intro- duced. In addition, such action should be coupled with effective collection of income taxes from coffee producers. 18. The production of cotton in the coastal plain shares many structural features with that of coffee: concentration (250 producers account for about two-thirds of output), high efficiency (yields of almost one ton of lint per hectare), and reliance on a low-paid seasonal work force. However the profit margins in cotton are lower than in coffee, and there is a shortage of suit- able land for an economic expansion of output at presently foreseeable prices. Cotton output has now recovered from the sharp drop in 1965-67 and is likely to expand slowly in the next two years from the peak reached in 1970/71. After 1973 it is expected some decline in output in response to somewhat lower prices in international markets. The major area of agricul- tural diversification in the last two years has been that of beef for export. This has occurred as a result of the efforts of a few commercial farmers and of the establishment in 1972 of a slaughterhouse for export, to be supplemented by a second one in 1973. Exports of beef, entirely to the United States, will total about $4 million in 1972. However, there are some problems for the future. First, exports are to some extent at the expense of supply to the domestic market, a large segment of which cannot afford to pay the prices prevailing in the export market. Second, El Salvador does not lend itself to extensive pastures, so that the growth of this export is likely to be short-lived unless investments are made to make the industry much more efficient, relying in part on feed-grains. The Central Bank, through its Development Fund, has in the last four or five years made medium- term credit available at reasonable rate of interest to commercial livestock farmers. 19. In 1971, value added in manufacturing showed signs of expanding at a faster rate than that of the previous three years. After the rapid expan- sion from 1961 to 1967, various factors combined to substantially slow new investment in manufacturing in the period 1968-70: the decline in new oppor- tunities for import substitution at the national level and the absence of new industrial policies affecting the regional common market; the decline in Salvadorian exports to the region following the closing in 1969 of the border with Honduras, a market which absorbed a quarter of Salvadorian regional exports and a large proportion of those items - such as shoes and textiles - which could not easily be sold in other countries; and, of course, the feeble growth of overall domestic demand in the period 1968-70. The recovery in manufacturing output growth in 1971, which is likely to have continued in 1972, appears to have concentrated in textiles, chemicals and construction materials, and was stimulated by the increase in public construction and the recovery of exports to the regional market, although these were in 1971 still below the peak reached in 1968. 20. The principal advantages which El Salvador has for the future development of manufacturing are a sophisticated and aggressive entrepre- neurial class and easily trainable and economic labor (wage rates are prob- ably the lowest in Central America 1/). However, the regional import sub- stitution within Central America, which provided a large part of the extra stimulus to the growth of manufacturing in the 1960's (on top of the normal national import substitution and the demand arising from higher incomes within El Salvador), is unlikely to be as important a force in the 1970's. Exports of manufactures outside Central America could become a major stimulus to industrial growth. The requisites to achieve this are an adequate investment climate - substantially reducing the political and social uncertainty which prevailed since 1968 - plus the necessary financial underpinnings: markets, finance, and perhaps special incentives. So far, no major industrial market- ing effort outside the regional has been undertaken by Central American industrialists, although a large amount of information is available in studies of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI). The major reason has probably been the attractiveness of the protected - and for some items relatively high-priced - Common Market. There is a need for more export oriented regional tariff policy and revision of incentive laws to industry. Finance is unlikely to be a major obstacle since sufficient long- term finance will in all likelihood be available eithEr through CABEI or domestic official sources, the Central Bank Development Fund, or the state industrial development corporation - INSAFI - both of which might be able to tap some of the moderately large excess reserves of the commercial banks (Appendix Table 6.7). The Government should be able to contribute to this effort, by reappraising the 1970 export promotion law - which was in any case not implemented - and making a serious effort at establishing a small and 1/ The relative cheapness of labor may account for the faster-than-average growth of industrial employment in El Salvador (Appendix Table 1.2) compared to the region, although some of the data quoted above in para. 4 do not support these estimates of employment growth. - 13 - flexible export promotion organization. The present organization - CENAFE - has been dormant since it was established in 1969. The Planning Office might also play a useful role by submitting periodically to the private sector a list of projects and industries - designed to make maximum economic use of labor - which would be eligible for export benefits. 21. Further support of the educational reform, started in 1967, is essential for the encouragement of a high level of investment and to promote a more rapid growth. Good progress has been achieved in technical and voca- tional education, curricula improvements, and upgrading of teachers. Between 1962 and 1971 the budget of the Ministry of Education rose by 175 percent from C 40.2 million to C110.9 million or from 2.5 percent to 4.1 percent of GDP. Enrollment in primary education, as a proportion of the relevant school age population, rose from 62.8 percent in 1967 to 67.3 percent in 1971 but the additional effort required to reach all the relevant population still remains substantial. Also important is to reduce the large educational imbalance between urban and rural areas (with respective enrollment rates in primary schooling of 95.2 percent and 45.0 percent in 1971). The retention coefficient (i.e. primary school graduates as a percent of entering students six years earlier) remains low - 27 percent in 1966-71 - so expenditures per graduate are relatively high. The education plan for 1973-77 emphasizes the need for administrative reforms to lower the rising cost per pupil which increased from C 85 in 1966 to C 99 in 1971. 22. Monetary and balance of payments management was eased somewhat in recent years by the recession in the domestic economy: imports stagnated from 1968 to 1970, and profit remittances abroad did not increase, as manu- facturing output of foreign subsidiaries stagnated. In these circumstances, the mildly expansionary credit policies of the Central Bank were probably appropriate. Central Bank credit accounted for about one-third of the 20 percent expansion in total banking system credit from the end of 1967 to 1970, with the expansion going in equal parts to the Central Government and to the private sector through the commercial banks. In 1971, as a result of the expansion of private investment and of domestically financed public invest- ment, import rose quite rapidly while export earnings and long-term capital inflows stagnated. Nevertheless, because of an expansion of foreign trade credits to the private sector and of the 1971 SDR allocation, net Central Bank reserves stayed at about $50 million, or 9-10 weeks of current payments. Developments in 1972, with a sharp expansion of export earnings due to the recovery of coffee prices, have led to an accumulation of reserves to a level equivalent to about 4 months' current payments. 23. The immediate outlook for the balance of payments is encouraging, and the recent breakdown of the International Coffee Agreement may enable El Salvador to dispose of some of its large coffee stocks. The coffee export .projection in.Appendix Table 7.6 assumes that prices will improve somewhat from their present level and then reach a plateau in the mid-seventies. Even though little growth can be expected from cotton exports beyond 1973 (Appendix Table 7.7) - mainly because of price stagnation - the overall export outlook is good at least until the mid-seventies. However, the absence of a function- ing Coffee Agreement could also present the danger of a marked downturn in prices within four or five years, once plantings encouraged by present prices - especially in Africa and Central America - lead to an above-average expansion in output. In the case of El Salvador, the danger is that such an expansion of plantings is likely to take place in marginal areas, where producers would be unlikely to be able to withstand the reduction in prices. An effective control over plantings, both through direct coWrol and effective taxation of coffee incomes, is needed. 24. The main developments in public finances in the last three years have been some improvement in public savings in 1970 and 1971 coupled with a large expansion in public investment in 1971, so that the public sector was faced with a gap which had to be covered through Central Bank lending to the Central Government. The financing gap increased in 1972 as public savings deteriorated in the wake of a rapid increase in current outlays - largely because of salary increases at the end of 1971. The magnitude of the problem, however, has been modest, reflecting in part the still low level of public sector outlays. The variations in public investment correspond to the phasing of construction of major projects in electric power and in transport. After falling sharply in 1970, public investment in 1972 had recovered to about 3.3 percent of GDP; the proportion is not only low in relation to the needs of El Salvador, but also in comparison with the level achieved in the mid-1960's. Central Government current expenditures have remained at about 9 to 10 percent of GDP, despite the rapid increase in 1971 and 1972 in outlays for education, which now absorb close to one-third of the total budget. Text Table IV: SELECTED IDICATORS OF PUBLIC FTN.NCfS, 1965-72 (Amounts in millions of colones, current prices) EstimateJ 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Central Government savings 20 24 18 39 15 Current revenues 230 251 281 300 310) Current outlays 210 227 263 261 295 Rest of public sector savings 25 26 43 44 46 of which net transfers from Central Government (30) (30) (49) (47) (46) Public investment /1 71 90 88 112 126 Financed by: public savings 45 50 61 83 61 capital receipts 4 4 8 1 7 external loans, net 20 32 7 17 34 Central Bank, net 16 29 -15 16 8 other /2 -14 -25 .27 - 5 16 Ratios of GDP (percentages) Public direct investment 2.2 2.7 2.4 3.0 3.3 Central Government current revenues 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.2 10.8 Central Government, current outlays 9.2 9.5 10.3 9.7 10.3 /1 Including development credit for private sector investment. / The large size of this item reflects in 1968 and 1969 an overestimation of public savings and possibly an underestimation of public investment expenditures, and in 1970 the contrary phenomena. The explanation for- the discrepancy lies partly in the 1969 war expenditures, most of which were actually paid in 1970 but accounted for in 1969. Source: Appendix Tables 4.2, 4.4, 5.1 and 6.3 25. The management of public finances has not presented major problems in the recent past because low revenues were accompanied by also low develop- mental expenditures. However, for the future there could be serious problems, especially on the revenue side, unless remedial measures are taken. As far as current expenditures are concerned, judgments on their past efficiency are difficult to make without more detailed study. Together, education and health account for about half of current outlays. It is fairly clear that the increase in education outlays has in broad terms been reflected in a wider coverage of the population. The primary school enrollment ratio has increased from 60 percent in 1961 to 76 percent in 1971, and the improvement in the - 16 - literacy rnte was notec above in pars. P. The increases in teachers' sal- aries i" 1971 contributed to the very sharp expansion of education outlays that year- at tAo same tiKe, the increase was justiVien in order to upgrade the stnaning of the teaching profession (at the beninning of 1971, the avera,e monthly salary of a primary school teacher was about $901 after the recent increase it was $110. as compared with an avera7e of $80 for male workers in 7anufacturing in metropolitan San Salvador). The in?act of health expendi- tures, which included those of the Social Security Institute, has been less visihte in terms of broad national statistics, altnough the decline of the death rate from 15 to 10 per thousann in the last two decades is perhaps the ost obvious indientor of sonc i-rovement. 26. Current revenues have increased at about the same pace as GNP, but the major traditional source of revenue, incort duties, has lost importance as trade within CACM expanded in the 1960's and duty exemptions for capital :oods cpanied. To make up for the resulting lack of buoyancy of revenues, the authorUios in 1970 substantially increased the sta"y tax, which affects mojor recorned connercial transactions. For the future, a modernization of the ta% smstem is required in order to generate the revenues for the expan- sion of expenitures foreseen iQ the Plan and to make tho system more effc- tive to carry out the redistributive goals of the Govermenn . The authorities have for some tine been consiCering various possible rpforrs which go part of the wny toward meeting those objectives. The two main rnasures proposea, anW for which studies have been prepare! by OAS/IDB tax advisers, are the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT), and the effective implementation of a national real estate tax. The implementation of the VAT will be difficult, but thr authorities feel that the cross-checking which it makes possible will in time offset this disadvantage. A heavier tax on private automobiles is also planned. Amon: the measures which ought to be seriously considered are n much more aqgresslve drive to collect income taxes and an increase in the coffee export tax. Both are likely to be quit unpopular with the economic elite. Income and profits tax collections have stcanated for the last three years the number of personal income tax payers is very small and their pay-- ments are low. In 1970 about 600 individuals, out of 14,732 total taxpayers, accounted for more than half of personal income tax collections of C 1U million and the rate collected from their taxable income was 13 percent, a ratio which has tended to decline. The case for the coffpe tax was explained above in para. 1S: moreover, the ratio of the tax to coffee exports is moderate (Aurendix Table 5.3) and is not sufficiently progressive with respect to price. There exists a proposal by OAS/IDE advisers describcd in Report CA-12a of September 1971, to revise the coffee export tax upward, but the Government has so far been reluctant to consider it. By following this proposal the government could raise an additional C 150 million over the 1973-77 Plan period. - 17 - IV. PROSPECTS AND CREDITWORTHINESS 27. The prospects for the economy of El Salvador depend on the time horizon in which they are seen. For the immediate future, until 1975 approximately, favorable coffee export prices if, as expected, they continue at a high level - are likely to propel the economy at a faster rate than in recent years. The extent to which this more rapid growth will be used to begin to change the pattern of. development - which has continued to be heavily dependent on coffee and cotton exports, despite the rapid development of manufacturing, and has tended to concentrate the benefits of growth - will depend very much on government action. The degree of success of the new Government in implementing the goals in the 1973-77 Plan will' be of vital inportance for longer term prospects, which are dominated by the relatively poor resource base of El Salvador. If the present annual population growth rate of about 3.7-3.8 percent is maintained, El Salvador's population would rise from 3.4 million in 1970 to about 10 million in the year 2000; on this basis, and even assuming some expansion in the arable land area, each farm fanily would by the end of the century have on average only about 1 itectarc of cultivable land at its disposal. The growth of population is likely to create a worsening unemployment problem. By 1980, if the p2st increase of productivity per person is maintained (it averaged about 3 percent annually between 1961 and 1970) and assuming that total output growtl: of 6 percent annually is achieved (somewhat better than the 5.4 percent rate of the 1961--70 period), direct unemployment will have risen to 15 percent of the labor force. 28. The immediate years ahead are important ones since the foreseeable goocl performance of export earnings and the likely inflow of official develop- ment assistance will make it somewhat easier financially for the Government to implement a more aggressive public investment pro,ra.. At the same tie, a beginning should be made, through tax reform and other structural changes suggested in this reort, to distribute more evenly the total wealth of the country and the benefits of growth. Yinally, and nost imrortant, policies ought to be quickly implemented which will encourage private investment in key areas, especially in exports of manufactures ani non-traditional products to outside the CACM. Most of these elements are already incorporated in the 1973-77 Development Plan which has been approved by the Cabinet. President .olina has stated that he wants economic and social reforms and strongly supports the Planning Office as the institution to coordinate and implement the proposrd Plan. 29. The public investment program in the 1973-77 Plan calls for total exoen-itures of C 075 million during the five-year period. The Bank staff tstinates, based upon its own analysis of the individual projects, the country's development priorities, administrative capacity and financial possibilities, suggest direct public investment outlays of about C 810 million. The sectoral composition is somewhat different from that in the plan, reflect- ing staff s judgment with regard to thc tining of the projects. The major projects w,!re described in the Appendix to the 1971 report; naturally, as is often the case in other countries, a substantial project proparation effort will be needed if the broad public investment targets are to be met, espec- ially in the later years. This is especially true in a,riculture. - 1 - 30. A significant change since 1971 in the future direction of public investment is the willingness of the public sector to take an active role in assistance for family planning. Although this new role does not greatly affect the total financial requirements of the Plan, it is of great import- ance to the future development outlook of El Salvador. Appendix Table 1.5 gives a purely illustrative calculation of the possible maximum effects of such a family planning program. With the limited land resources and the difficulty of a rarid shift to urban services and manUfacturing economy, a sizeable faiily planning program - even if it bepins to affect the growth of total pnp-Ilation only in the 19SO's -- is of great imrortance to strengthen the pros7ects for the future vi.ability of the econoM7. There are, however, substantial. cultural obstacles to a population pro-ra-, a clear understanding of the? is inrnrtant for the success of a concerted plan. - 19 - Text Table V: ESTIMATED DIRECT PUBLIC INVESTHENT, 1973-77 (Millions of Colones) Annual Average Est. Projected Percent Sector 1970-71 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1973-77 1973-77 Agriculture 8.1 5.4 11.3 19.2 22.5 23.4 25.8 102.2 12.6 Industry, Tourism and Commerce 4.9 7.1 10.0 4.7 4.7 6.7 9.0 35.1 4.3 Power /a 4.7 14.3 32.1 60.8 59.8 44.0 15.0 211.7 26.1 Transportation 24.7 26.2 29.2 35.4 27.0 29.0 29.5 150.1 18.5 Communications 2.8 7.4 8.9 12.7 11.3 9.0 11.0 52.9 6.5 Water & Sewerage 2.8 4.0 2.6 3.2 7.1 6.9 8.5 28.3 3.5 Housing 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 38.0 4.7 Education 6.5 15.0 10.7 7.0 9.5 14.1 14.2 55.5 6.9 Health 4.8 6.8 6.0 10.3 10.1 10.9 10.3 47.6 5.9 Miscellaneous 8.7 5.6 3.4 6.1 7.0 8.0 9.0 38.5 4.8 Unidentified projects - - - - - 10.0 40.0 50.0 6.2 Total 71.9 95.4 124.2 163.4 168.0 172.0 183.3 809.9 100.0 Total as % of GNP 2.8 3.3 4.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 /a Estimates prepared prior to the Bank appraisal report for the sixth power project dated February 14, 1973, which recommends a somewhat higher level of expenditure. Source: Projections are staff estimates based upon the project list in the 1973-77 Plan. 31. In the.meantime, however, a more aggressive attack on the problems of urban and rural poverty is necessary. As noted above, only about 10 per- cent of public investment and credit is to be devoted - if there is no sub- stantial slippage - to small farmers, many of whom are in any case not the poorest element of the rural population, since 20 percent of rural families - 20 - are lanless and anothur 42 percent of whom cultivate less than one hectare. The propos :d allocation - a very rough estimate - would represent only about 0.5 pereenc of the GNP of the period 1973-77. The obstacles to a larger allocation are a clearer definition of priorities, the availability of finan- cial resources, and the obvious institutional difficultios inherent in a broad rural development program. Paragraph 11 above gives the.general lines of such a proyram (irrigation and draipa;e, rural education and extension, and credit and physical inputs). Such a program has to include commercial agriculture, which is thn major export earner and provider of remunerative enploynent. A works pregrar, such as that of FOCCO (described in para. 11 above) also deserves emphasis - which it is to receive, according to the Plan. In addition, the redistributioun oF unutilized or poorly used land ought to be encourage so as to ease population pressure on the land and encourage new production and employment opportunities. The thrust of the agrarian effort, in view of El Salvador's limited land, should aim primarily at increasing 7roductivitv. As for as urban poverty is concerned, it would be optimistic to ex;PcL that a major industrial investment effort aimed at export markets could provide a significant number of new jobs. Urban employment could probably be significantly increased through a stepped-up public investment effort including projects in street construction, water systems, and a sub- stantial profrnm of low cost housing much greater than what it is now included in the Plan. 32. The financinr pattern of public investment will depend on the ex- tant to which the public sector can gear up administratively to execute the projects contemplated. If the prorose& levels can be approached, a task which is not unmTana2eablc for the immediate years ahead, it is likely that the public sector will face a shortaZe of savinns to match external loan dis- bursements. Since the possibility of tapping private savi ;s through bond issues is quite limited, most of the gap will have to be filled through public savings. The prospect of a financing gap is recognized by the authori- ties, and they have therefore been preparing a possible package of tax measures. which was summarized in para. 26 above. The measures proposed, if they are implemented in the next few months, woulN proviuQ additional revenue of about C 25 million in 1973 rising to about C 110 million in 1977, or a total of C 323 million in the Plan period. Althuin the size of the gap is obviously subject to variation - derendinn larKely on thQ pace of expansion of public investment and on the growth of centra governrent revenues out of cxistinA taes - the proposed additional tax efFort (including administra- Cive irprovements) would not be fully sufficient to gecerate the requisite public savings. Howcver, the estimator additional requirements prepared by On mission - in the order of C 50-60 million for the five-year period - are Dodest anj could be easily generated. lorenver, in nacrneconomic terms, there is anple room for such action on the revenue side: the proposed tax package in t5e Plan amounts to about 1.9 percent of prospective GDP and would raise the ratio o central government revenues to GDP to about 12.6 percent in 1977 or still blow tOe ratio of about 13 percent achieved durine the mid-1930's. Alt4ruZ> t at period was admittedly one of record coffee axnert prices, the outlook for coffee priccs in the next two or three years is likely to make thp two Feriods broadly compprable. - 21 - Text Table VI: FINANCING PUBLIC INVESTMENT, 1970-77 (In millions of Colones) Current prices Actual Est. Bank staff projections (1972 prices) 1970 1971 1977 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1973-77 Public Investment 88 112 126 156 198 207 216 231 1,00? of which direct/i (63) (81) ( 95) (124) (163) (168) (172) (183) (510) Financed by: Public savings 61 77 61 66 88 92 108 112 b66 Central Government 67 8 7 77 99 101 116 117 - Current revenue/2 277 294 306 343 386 411 451 h79 2,070 -ex. new tax measures (277) (294) (306) (318) (323 y(336) (349) (365) (153' -5-year Plan tax measures (24) (52) (60) (82) (107) ( 2'; -additional tax measures required (1) (1) (15) (20) ( 7) - Current expendituresjL. 210 210 240 266 287 310 335 362 1 Rest of public sector - 6 - 7 - 5 -11 -11 - 9 - 8 - 5 Capital receipts 7 5 7 7 7 8 8 10 Domestic borrowing, net 17 1I 27 23 2F 317 31T -3 External borrowing, net 7 17 34 58 75 76 66 71 Actual and Projected GDP 2,65 2,681 2,859 3,017 3,183 3,358 3,552 3,737 16, Ratios to GDP (percentages) Public airect investment 2.5 3.0 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 Central Government - current revenues 10.8 11.0 10.7 11.4 12.1 12.2 12.7 12.8 - current expenditurps 8.2 7.8 8.h 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.7 93 Gap to be financed /4 - - - 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.9 3.1 2 4 Excludes public credit for private sector investment. 2 Excludes transfers on current account to and from other public agencies. Reflects scheduled elimination of CACM import surcharge (San Jos6 Protocol) at the end of 1973. /4 Refers to 5-Year Plan Tax measures plus additional tax measures required. Source: Text Table IV and IBRD staff projections. 33. On the basis outlined abova, long-tern external development assist- incc cow be exnected to play an increasiuo role both in the financing of public invastment and of the prospective current account deficit in the balance of prypents. As shown in Text Table VI, net external borrowing would cover aboun 40 percent of total public investment outlays, including develop- meat credin to the private sector. On a gross basis, disbursements of devel- op-ent loops would anount to about half of public investment outlays, a proportion more or less in line with the expected nix between external and local costs. Of coursco the projected disbursrment level shown in Text Tabies VI and VII assumes a continucS and sustained project preparstion effort and nasures in the near future to increase Public savings: both assumptions howcver. are within the realm of practical possibility. in, The external debt of El Salvador will increase faster than in the pyst if top projected trends take place. At the end of 1971 the external. public debt of Fl Salvador repayable in foreign currency totalled $134 million (including Q42 million in andisburse! conitments), plus another $34 million repaybie in local currency, almost entirely to IDB. The debt service ratio es been low in the pnst (3.2 percent in the period 1970-72, including a bulge in 1971-72 because of the ropayrent by the Central bank of special loans obtainel On rears before as a result of the war enorqencv), reflecting the ar edoniance of long-term loans from official agencies and the low level of external horrowinp of the public sector. For the future, El Salvador has an imy1 nargin to increase its 1ong-tern borrowing abroad for sound programs an:n projects. On the basis of the projection in the table below, the external PUblic dao rvpnvrhlP in forein currency would total about $27Q million in 1977, wMh a At service ratip of about 3 percent. The fact that the debt qervicp ratio is expected to Mclin2 in the foreseeable future is a reflec- tion of th, EnvoraWe tern oi which ct assisrqnce is likely to be made availabl includiNg peris of race wbich will man that the bulk of the incresa d orrowing will not he rflectr' in re,av4rqt until the latter 1970 s. - 23 - Text Table VII: SUMARY PROJECTION OF BALANCE OF PAYMIENTS AND DEBT SERVICE (In ni3»llions., of U..dollars) Avera,e Pro-ic te,. ___ 19 71)-72 1973 19o741 1975 1976 l`,77 Exports oI goo)ds and n. .s. 215 329 347 37 37 11 of which.coffec (108) (139) (143) (155) (160) (1 Imports of -oods aid n.f.s. 226 339 369 /0 43 ? kesource gap -111 -1? 22 -33 -'1 Factor incone, neÆ - 9 -10 ·-11 --11 -13 -1 Private capital net 22 15 20 22 26 Offici,l external borrowing, net 7 23 30 31 27 Disbursements (17) (34) (41) (40) (35) ( Amrtization (--10) (-11) (-11) (-9) (-2) ( Chanpe in official net rer.ves = increase) ..5 -18 -17 -9 3 Externwal public debt service Service paynents 14 15 15 13 11 11 Ratin (as percent of e:ports of goods and n.f.s.) 5.2 4.6 4.4 3.5 2.9 27 Source: Appendix Table 3.1 and IBRD staff projections. Of the projected disburseiients, about half are expected to come fron 1DD according to the policies recentlv implemented by IDB, El Salvador qualifi for assistance at concessional terms, includirn. lon.- maturity periods and ilo rates of interest, of the order of 2 to 3 percent annually. These funds wi be repayable in forei-n currency, unlike most lending in the past out of the; IDB Fund for Spec4al Operations. 35. Beyond the 1970's, however. the canacity of El Salvador to servlc its external debt with ease will depend on its success in transforming the econorav, by diversifying the export base and reducing the dependence of the econoL,y en an agrieultural sector which will provide a livelihood for a dininishin-g proportion of the population, due to the shortage of land. Exter- nal leniers can ease the adjustrment process through the volume and terrms of their assistance, but the burden of the effort will lie wi.th the authorities of El Salvador and its private sector. Incentives for the development of nanufactured exports outside Central America - along the lines suggente in paragrap 21 - and for the diversification of agriculture toxards high valt crons will be essential elenents in the encouragemxent of a high level of pri-- vate investnient to promrote more rapid growth. A. HUMAN RESOURCES STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table No. A. HUMAN RESOURCES 1.1 Total Economically Active Population, 1950-2000 1.2 Employment and Unemployment by Economic Sector, 1950-71 1.3 Population Growth, Birth and Mortality Rates, 1940-1971 1.4 Family Planning Services in 1970 and 1971 1.5 Illustrative Projections of an Expanded Family Planning Program, 1970-99 1.6 Employment in Metropolitan San Salvador, 1962-71 B, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2.1 Gross National Product, 1970-72 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Sectors, 1961-72 2.3 Gross Domestic Product by Sectors, 1960-70 2.4 Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 1961-72 C. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 3.1 Balance of Payments, 1965-71 3.2 Trade with Central America, 1960-71 3.3 Principal Exports, 1963-72 3.4 Summary of Imports, 1962-72 3.5 International Reserves of the Banking System, 1963-1972 D. EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1971 4.2 Estimated Future Service Payments on External Debt Outstanding Including undisbursed as of December 31, 1971 4.3 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1971 4.4 Estimated Future Service Payments on External Public Debt Outstanding Including Undisbursed as of December 31, 1971 E. PUBLIC FINANCE 5.1 Public Sector Operations, 1965-71 5.2 Revenues of the Central Government, 1951-72 5.3 Coffee Exports and Coffee Taxation, 1942, 1946 and 1950-71 5.4 Central Government Expenditures by Administrative Agencies, 1965-72 5.5 Public Investment, 1965-72 F. HONEY AND BANKING 6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1964-71 6.2 Summary Accounts of the Commercial and Mortgage Banks, 1964-71 6.3 Summary Accounts of the Central Reserve Bank, 1964-71 6.4 Origin, Destination, and Financing of Bank Credit, 1962-72 6.5 Commercial and Mortgage Loans to Private Sector by Destination, 1967-72 6.6 Private Claims on the Banking System by Composition and Institutional Distribution, 1964-71 6.7 Legal Reserve Position of the Commercial and Mortgage Banks, 1962-72 C. AGRICULTURE 7.1 Number and Siza of Farm Units, 1961 and 1970 7.2 Value Added by Major Components of the Agricultural Sector in Selected Years, 1950-71 7.3 Value of Production of Agriculture and Related Sectors, 1963-71 7.4 Agricultural Production and Yields, 1950-71 7.5 Coffee Statistics, 1963-1972 7.6 Coffee Production and Exports Projections, 1971-1978 7.7 Cotton Production and Exports, Projections 1970-78 7.8 Imports of Agricultural Inputs, 1965-71 7.9 Value of Food Imports and Percent of Total Food Consumption and Total Imports, 1960-71 H. OTHER SECTORS 8.1 Value Added in Manufacturing by Major Industrial Branches, 1958-71 8.2 Value of Output in Manufacturing by Major Industrial Branches, 1958-71 3.3 Consumption of Iron Products Used in Construction, 1960-71 3.4 Consumption of Cement, 1960-71 3.5 Construction of Urban Dwellings by the Institute of Urban Housing, 1960-72 8.6 Production and Consumption of Electricity, 1960-71 8.7 Registration of Motor Vehicles, 1960-70 I. PRICES 9.1 Price Indexes, 1963-72 J. EDUCATION 10.1 Primary Education - Pupils, Teachers and Schoolrooms, 1960-71 10.2 Primary Education - Enrollment and Retention Coefficients, 1962-71 Table 1.1: EL SALVADOR: TOTAL AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION, 1950-2000 (Mid-year population, in thousands) Total Population Economically Active Population Total Aale Female Total Male Faiele 1950 1,922 660 554 106 1955 2,210 739 617 122 1960 2,512 1,259 1,253 814 675 139 1961 2,588 1,297 1,291 836 693 143 1962 2,667 1,337 1,330 858 712 1L6 1963 2,748 1,378 1,370 881 731 150 1964 2,831 1,420 1,411 905 751 154 1965 2,917 1,463 1,454 929 771 158 1966 3,012 1,512 1,500 958 795 163 1967 3,112 1,563 1,549 987 819 168 1968 3,217 1,616 1,601 1,017 844 173 1969 3,326 1,670 1,656 1,048 870 178 1970 3,441 1,726 1,715 1,081 897 184 Projected 1971 3,560 1,787 1,773 1,117 926 191 1972 3,685 1,850 1,835 1,153 957 126 1973 3,811 1,916 1,898 1,193 988 205 1974 3,949 1,98L 1,965 1,230 1.021 29 1975 4,092 2,054 2,038 1,271 1,054 217 1976 b,243 2,130 2,113 1,316 1,091 225 1977 4,394 2,209 2,190 1,363 1,130 233 1978 4,561 2,291 2,270 1,411 1,170 2L1 1979 4,729 2,375 2,354 1,461 1,211 2'0 1980 L,904 2,463 2,441 1,513 1,254 2'9 1985 5,907 2,970 2,937 1,815 1,504 3"1 1990 7, 122 1995 8,593 2000 10,372 a/ Zstinated. Source: Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia - CELADE. Table 1.2: EL SALVADOR: E1LOYENT AND UEMLOYMENT BY ECONOMIC SECTJR, 1950-71 (Thousand persons) C-nsus Data Prel. 190 1961 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 A!ricl.ture & Fishing h1O.6 h6h.2 h78.3 483.1 h87.9 492.8 497.7 502.7 507.7 512.8 ;Ia turing 73.3 98.h 1h3.9 1h3.7 166.2 178.8 189.2 190.0 194.1 183.0 F:r:tory outp;-t 23.1 55.4 82.6 83.6 93.5 100.6 106.2 106.9 109.2 102.9 Wa.di'raft 50.2 43.0 61.3 65.1 72.7 78.2. 82.8 83.1 8h.9 80.1 Con-truction 18.3 30.3 38.7 57.6 65.6 61.6 43.5 43.9 35.1 36.2 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 Trinprt, ':are?houzing- an ccnrunication! 9.7 16,3 17.5 22.1 23.8 31.6 30.6 30.0 Z7.9 27.0 35.4 50.2 56.9 61.6 69.3 72.7 71.5 71.7 73.5 77.9 r:r 1ces ..J 76.5 102.1 . 9 121.8 127.8 132.5 146.o 143.7 129.6 128.h oth' r 17.3 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 Total Fr.ploed Population 6h2.1 766.0 59.6 899.7 945.5 975.0 983.6 987.1 973.1 970.3 Un-:ployrment 11.3 4l.1 h2.6 25.2 7.h 5.4 25.3 59.1 113.1 1h6.7 Pcrcent 1.7 5.1 4.7 2.7 0.8 0.6 2.5 5.6 10.4 13.1 c-oncr-ically Active P?C2ulat ioi 653.h 807.1 902.2 924.9 952.9 980.4 1,008.9 1,046.22 1,086.22 1,117.0 1/ Ircludes 0overnnent sector. / Figures adjusted by the economically active population expelled from Honduras. Source: Col:A1K, 'Indicadores Econåmicos y SocialecV", Jan.-June 1972, p.214. Table 1.3: EL SALVADOR: POPULATION GROWTH, BIRTH AND MORTALITY RATES, 1940 - 1971 Yearly Rates Infant Density Growth 2/ Birth Death Mortality per Km2 194o 1.29 4.57 1.91 12.08 82 1945 1.29 h.29 1.82 10.80 87 1950 1.29 4.88 1.48 8.12 93 1955 2.83 4.92 1.46 7.67 107 1960 2.83 4.95 1.17 7.63 123 1961 2.96 4.94 1.13 7.00 126 1962 4.00 4.84 1.15 7.14 131 1963 3.55 4.90 1.09 6.77 136 1964 3.80 4.71 1.04 6.50 141 1965 3.68 4.69 1.06 7.06 16 1966 3.70 4.54 1.00 6.20 1967 3.77 4.h 0.92 6.31 1-58 1968 3.66 4.32 0.91 5.89 163 1969 3.79 2/ 4.20 0.99 6.37 170 1970 4.23 / h.00 0.99 6.68 176 1971 3.21 3/ 1/ Per 100 inhabitantc. 2/ Per 100 born alive. 3/ This growth rate is distorted by the inflow of persons returning from Honduras of ithich only a portion has been included., Source: "Direcci6n General de Estadistica-y Censos" and "Indicadores Econ6niccs y Sociales", CC:IAPLAN (Septiembre-Diciembre 1971). Table 1.4 : EL SALVADOR: FAMIL. PLANNING SERVICES IN 1970 AND 1971 1970 1971 Population in the areas served: Total 2,317,000 2,398,897 Women in fertile age: 683,000 705,000 Health Centers with Family Planning Services: Total 82 97 Urban Rural 30 29 Consultation hours: Doctors 3,421 6,522 Nurses 14,919 17,830 First consultations: 12,042 21,872 I.U.D. 1,953 2,676 Oral Contraceptives 9,982 18,651 Other 107 545 Subsequent consultations: 8,83 17,263 I.U.D. 3,396 3,928 Oral Contraceptives 4,847 13,106 Other 273 229 Total Cycles supplied: 86,134 185,894 Source: Ministry of Health. Table 1.5: EL SALVADOR: ILLUSRATIVE PROJECTIONS OF AN EXPANDED FAMILY PLANNING PRoGRA 1970-99 Mid-year population Population annual growth rate Number of Women in fertile age With Without With Without Continuos users As percentage of PrograY Program Program Program during year total in fertile In thousands In percent age 1970 3,425 3,435 3.0 3.0 15,700 / 2.3 - 1971 3,536 3,539 3.0 3.0 23,500 2/ 3.4 2 1972 3,639 3,642 2.8 3.0 30,000 2/ 4.2 2/ 1973 3,740 3,763 2.7 3.1 65,892 8.8 1974 3,842 3,882 2.6 3.1 91,064 11.8 1975 3,943 1,006 2.5 3.1 118,220 14.8 1976 4,042 4,136 2.5 3.2 1146,840 17.7 1977 4,142 4,271 2.4 3.2 166,212 19.2 1978 1,,243 4,413 2.L_ 3.2 186,992 20.8 1979 4,436 L,560 2.4 3.3 209,324 22.6 1980 4,449 4,714 2.3 3.3 233,356 214.0 1990 5,694 6,683 2.3 3.5 457,012 33.8 1999 6,755 9,129 1.6 3.4 871,880 514.0 a/ Assuning constant fertility. bJ Assuming that age-specific fertility will decline to 78 percent of 1970 level by 1976 to 70 percent by 1980, to 60 percent by 1990 and to 45 percent of the 1970 level by 2000. c/ Estimate based on observed values in the Ministry of Health program. Source: IBRD, Population -ecojects Department Table 1.6 : EL SALVADOR: EMPLOYMENT IN METROPOLITAN SAN SALVADOR, 1962-71 (In thousands) Prel. 1962 1963 196L 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 TOTAL 61.8 62.5 68.0 79.0 85.2 88.3 82.9 82.7 78.0 78.7 -.anufacturing 14.7 15.6 16.8 18.3 18.7 18.9 18.4 18.5 18.9 18.8 F 0oo tuf fs 2.7 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 3T Beverag e 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 Textiles 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 Clothing and shoes 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Other 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.1 7.41 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.4 Construction 11.0 9.9 13.3 19.8 22.6 21.2 15.0 15.1 12.1 12"- Commerce and banking 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.9 14.6 15.3 15.0 15.0 15.4 16.3 Transport, storage, and communications 5.6 5.6 5.8 7.3 7.9 10.5 10.1 9.9 9.2 8.9 Services 13.8 14.0 13.8 Th.1 14.8 15.4 16.9 16.6 14.7 14.5 Government 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.7 Source: Sample survey of Ministry of Labor. B. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Table 2.1: EL SALVADOR: GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, 1960-72 (In millions of colones, at current prices) Prel. Prel. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Consumption 1A8.9 1,284. 1 ,§i L S. 4 1,6 i .o 1 699.1 1,839.3 1,930.0 2,038.0 2,110.0 2,210 2,249.y 2,577.1 Private sector 1,143.8 1,135.1 1,224.2 1,310.7 1,418.5 1,526.5 1,655.5 1,727.3 1,822.2 1,861.2 1,934.7 2,056.9 n.a. Public sector 143.1 148.9 161.3 159.2 162.5 172.6 183.8 202.7 215.8 248.8 275.7 292.8 n.a. Investment 219.4 191.8 194.4 214.6 1.3 307.8 361.2 326.8 255.5 303.2 354.5 409.0 92.2 Private sector 11.8 122.3 135.0 158.5 214.3 215.6 226.7 254.9 189.3 208.6 235.7 257.5 7 .1 Public sector 40.6 45.5 38.1 44.0 48.4 80.8 98.8 68.8 58.8 65.0 72.3 86.5 98.1 Change in inventories 15.0 24.0 21.3 12.0 54.6 11.3 35.7 3.1 7.3 29.6 46.5 65.0 20.0 Net foreign financing 1 .0 -43.2 -80.3 -65.1 -139.0 -88.3 -58.1 -82.0 0 122.8 -134.0 Exports of goods and services 289.4 323.9 374.6 409.7 476.6 528.9 520.6 567.3 584.5 555.6 619.1 627.3 683.3 Imports of goods and services -353.8 -322.6 -366.6 -440.1 -542.8 -576.9 -641.9 -637.3 -624.4 -617.5 -631.4 -724.9 -793.3 Net factor income payments - 7.3 - 8.3 -12.3 -12.8 -14.1 -17.1 -17.7 -18.3 -18.2 -20.1 -21.0 -25.2 -24.0 Statistical discrepancy -21.9 -I212 14.7 39.6 34.6 3. 31.5 28.8 384 30.5 11.9 20.2 Gross national product 1,41 1,435.8 1 i 1 1,975.1 2,093.1 2 2,361.7 2,543.5 Depreciation -72.0 -72.2 -78.3 -84.1 -95.2 -98.9 -104.1 -109.7 -113.0 -119.9 -125.0 -134.1 -140.0 Net national product 1340.7 1,6. 1,512.0 1,596.7 1,757.5 1,876.2 2 2,087.7 2,160.7 2 8 2, 2,695.3 Indirect taxes net of subsidies -116.5 -101.5 -116.5 128.6 -146.9 -168.9 -162.5 -164.3 -149.3 -161.7 -196.3 -205.6 -251.0 National income 1242 1,622 1,395.5 1 1,707.3 1 1,923.4 2J9fl. 2,00.1 2,222.2 2,316.4 2,444. Source: Central Reserve Bank,and IBRD SLaff proewicr for 1972. Table 2.1: EL SALVADOR: GRUSS DOESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTORS, 1961-72 "in sillivns vi coones, 2t currenrt prices) 191 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965 1967 1968 1969 1970 inil, 197Ž1/ 9 reret ] - yrn T' s'50? 5 ;6.o (Q5.7 605.8~Ci 60 7"9.1 7 5 '1. r5 r. - 6, - . ..--- - - 1 tcui,ure -, CÜ Ü 4 5 >2.5 5 'i 5 183. ". 70 . 7 ?.7 3 ' t ì 1' 1 . 17.i 1t.8 18.i 18.9 21.3 23.5 2 .5. vi n. 12.7 2.4 2.9 5 ,0 3.4 5.1 34.2 4.5 4.4 99 r -io 4m0.6 01 2 52.0 39. 56. 95. 0 75. 0 'a1' I>.7 i-r.1 2.. 422.5 4/,5.) 4' 2 4 '. 515.6 :--. kn rurt''' 97 ,f 65 . 7/.7 69.2 5 .8 67. 7Y8, . 1 .4 429.9 31.5 .. 4^1 /r 9. _. 07.9 830 '907_.1 99. 1. 931_5 1,090.4. , 0016§.3 JOP . 1.,¯9 8 1,514, l 605C e ne 69 (1 .- '{7.2 85.6 89.5 91.2 97.8 115.7 1 .1 u . 13l .4 '9-0 c rea ces 29c.2 j : 402. /9.7 432.3 511.3 528.0 539.8 541.7 543.3 s81.3 i: nnel rv es ; . i2.3 '5b 1.3 13.4 38.2 42.2 46.0 sl.3 57.5 62.8 72.9 r r e ra; 70.4 i. , 7 ,4 2.9 70.1 ,.>1 S.6 90.2 93.5 94.9 96.9 31 3. Pu5lir n miinetion 121. lt 1 135.1 134.9 142.l 155.2 167.5 170.1 190.6 200.2 213.7 ?2e 1,C l 1.7 12i.1 32.9 143. 15,4.2 169.5 196.5 201.4 215.6 22C.7 rcrss dcl::rtc prdcet- 1,1 . 1 ,02 1,193.6 1,866.7 1,991.0 2,109.7 2,215.7 . 2,991.9 ä , 1,8 2,54.6 ,6 1 .3 2 .59 .3 c i'v'stockt and fishing, åt oarkut pricen. :2 :::inary. Centrt Reserve båk, r.I! I31 Stnff proje,ction for 1972. Table 2.3: EL SALVADOR: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR, 1960-70 (In millions of colones, at 1962 prices) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1961r 1965 1966 1967 1968 19691/ 1970]! Agriculture 426.2 h5l.1 537.0 518.4 5ho.0 517.2 527.2 57.7 567.7 588.6 627.0 Mining 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.2 4.0 Manufacturing 200.5 218.7 241.4 262.a4 29516 332.9 370.7 401.7 419.4 1422.5 437.0 Construction 40.5 43.4 39.7 48.5 55.2 60.2 73.1 67.6 56.8 64.1 65.0 Utilities 15.6 16.7 18.4 21.3 24.6 27.8 32.1 35.6 Wo.3 41.5 45.o Transport, Warehousing and Cormunications 62.9 66.9 75.1 77.5 83.6 90.7 95.6 102.6 115.9 119.1 123.0 Comnercial 334.6 313.5 349.2 391.7 462.1 511.5 544.3 563.2 582.0 582.1 577.0 Financial 22.0 23.8 26.3 27.5 31.2 32.4 36.6 4o.5 43.9 49.1 51.0 Housing 65.5 67.6 69.7 72.0 74.2 75.4 79.0 81.4 84.3 87.3 89.0 Public Addinistration 111.8 121.3 131.8 131.1 130.7 137.0 151.3 160.8 159.4 178.9 183.0 Personal Services 100.4 106.1 111.7 118.9 128.0 137.6 150.5 161.2 173.5 188.0 202.0 Gross Damestic Product 1,382.7 1,431.5 1 1,671.6 1 1,925.6 2,175.7 2 2,324.4 2,04.0 Annual Change (Percent) 4.0 3.5 12.0 4.3 9.3 5.4 7.2 5.4 3.2 3.5 3.4 1/ Preliminary. Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 2.4 EL SALVADOR: GROSS FIE CAPITAL FORMATION, 1961-72 (At current prices) SPrel. 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 (In millions of colones) constru'ction 2?, 76.0 87-Q 2.z 11 0 14L 8 126.9 17. 2 123.1 132.2 110.7 16h.2 Public sector 141.0 36.0 41. 4.1 61.7 78.8 57.5 45.7 56.0 64.2 72.3 85.2 Private sector 51.0 4.0 15.5 53.5 48.8 64.0 69.1 61. 67.1 68.0 68. 79.0 Machinery and equiprmnt 76.0 97.0 115.5 165.1 185.9 182.7 196.9 140.9 150.4 175.8 203.3 208.0 Public sector .0 2.0 5 4.3 19.1 19.9 11.4 13.1 19.0 8.1 21.1 12.9 Private rector 71.0 95.0 113.0 160.8 166.8 162.8 185.5 127.8 141.4 167.7 189.2 195.1 Total rross fixed capital forration 168.0 173.0 202.5 262.7 296.4 325.5 323.8 28.1 273.5 308.0 3kb .0 372.2 Public sector 46.0 38.0 41.0 48.14 80.8 98.7 68.9 58.8 75.0 72.3 86.5 98.1 Private sector 122.0 135.0 158.5 21h.3 215.6 226.8 254.9 189.3 208.5 235.7 257.5 .1 Nonresidential . 103.0 127. 181.0 3I, 177. 208.0 1T. 155.0 JU. - Residential 40.0 32.0 31.1 33.3 34.8 49.2 46.9 45.4 53.5 50.7 (As percentage of GNP) Construction 6.4 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.6 6.8 5.8 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.8 Public sector 2.9 2.3 2.5 2,4 3.1 3.8 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 Private sector 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 Machinery and equipment 5.3 6.1 6.8 8.8 9.4 8.7 9.0 6.2 6.4 6.9 7.6 7.3 Public sector 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 1. i.0 1.07 0.z-0 U3 -. 0 Private sector 5.0 6.0 6.7 8.6 8.4 7.7 8.5 5.6 6.0 6.6 7.1 6.9 Total gross fixed capital formation 11.7 10.9 12.0 14.0 15.0 15.5 14.7 10.9 11.6 12.1 12.9 13.1 Public sector 3.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 4.1 4.7 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.5 Private sector 8.5 8.5 9.4 11.6 10.9 10.8 11.6 8.3 8.8 9.3 9.7 9.7 Nonresidential 5.7 6.5 7.6 9.8 9.1 8.5 9.5 6.3 6.6 7.3 Residential 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.0 Source: Central Reserve Bank. C. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Т,Ые 3.t: �1: 5А1.Уюоа: аА[лисе ог Рдхtffгп4, 1965-71 (2п m111lene af U.S, dollara) 1955 1у56 [961 2968 1969 [970 1971 ггсJlе, С�г61г В.,lяпсе _crd.c DeЫt ааlепсе Credtt Dab1c ааlапсе Стсд1с 9cЫt ааlллсе Спд1с ОгЬ1[ aelance Credte DгЫс Ввlвпса Схедlс Deb1t йаl.псе А. r,nrdf а�.Л ьгтv(сгв ?24.4 N.p.G ?5.П ?11.L 267.0 - 55.6 2]0.7 267.9 - 77 1 277 J 260.) 27.4 226,5 259.8 - 33.3 252.В 266.i - 17.7 256.7 347.9 - 46.2 .•1с•гсlгпдlsг �) 1Ч0.� 202.5 - 1?.5 199.5 225.2 - 75.Т 207.9 224,5 - 16.6 2L1.7 216.2 - 4-7 2П2,L 211,6 - 9.7 228.3 21й.2 - 74.1 277,6 249.1 • 21.3 ег� г ггап.,пгг.епоп 7.z Э.ь - 1.: г,1 7.ь - 1,5 2.z й.3 - 2.1 z,L 7.о - 2.9 2.1 s,1 - з.о 1s б.а - 7.3 7.е ь.ь - г.е 1г��:•�7 б.1 14.} - 8.'. 7.? 15.8 - 8.6 6.7 14.1 - 7.8 9.9 16,5 - Ь-Ь В.2 18.7 - 1G.4 8.5 20.4 -[1.9 10.0 20.4 - 10.4 7с.-с•-г t::вгstсгпг lпсоте 0.1 5.2 - 5.1 - 5.9 - 5.9 - 6.5 - Ь-5 - 6,1 - 6.1 - 6.3 - 6-7 - 6_Ь - Ь.Ь - 6.Ч - 6.4 )пегггяг L 6 й.2 - 7.5 7,0 7,6 - 1,8 2.l 4,1 - 2.0 2.7 4,6 - 2.1 2.8 S.0 - 2.2 ].5 S,7 - 2,2 з,1 6.9 - 7.В игhег l4 Д 10,Ъ 7.8 tП,б 12,7 - 2,1 10.2 12.4 - 2.2 11.1 12,7 - 1.2 11.4 17.] - 1.9 11.0 12,4 1.4 12.2 17.5 - 1-Э В. тгап.ггг, 1s.7 2�а 12.7 17 4 Э.7 9_1 14.ь 7.7 tI.9 11.0 2.6 8.4 17.7 2.2 [Э.5 16.7 2.[ 14.2 20.7 2.S te.o Рг[•iлге 11,6 1.9 Ч.' ч,1 Т.Ь 6,5 1о.7 2.5 ] J а•0 2.0 6.0 11.6 l.7 9.9 17.9 i.5 1t.4 18.0 l,5 16.7 гс.пгг,г сwегп,.ем 4.1 o.s 7.ь 4.Э 1 1 Э.2 4.4 O.z 4.г з.о о.ь 2.4 4.1 o.s 7.ь 2.4 О.ь t.e 2.s 1.о 1.s С. iг4vxc гар5гаl 17.5 0;7 11.P 7:{`7 11п5 17:2 Z1.6 2,_] 19.7 14.7 7_+ 10.9 11.7� 7�4 8`3 11.7 4_8 6_9 I7.6 5�] Ib�7 btn�cc 7пvгsгпепс 7.' - 7.? Ь.б . В.Ь 9,В - 9.В 8.4 - 8.4 7.1 - 7.l ].l - 7.1 4.) 6.7 Си.:::г 2,4 0.7 2.1 17.B р,б 12.2 10.9 О.В 10,1 4.1 2.7 1.6 1.6 0,8 0.8 4.4 4,2 о,2 S.1 4•7 0.4 гг.псг 7м,:-:еrт - 0-4 - 0.: - о.Э - о.з о.г - о.[ o.s - а.Э - - • - о,б - о.б - 0,6 - о.б ог�,с: .логс-ггг:п z.9 - z.9 Т.э 1о.ь - з.] О.а 1,5 - о.7 t.7 о.9 о.4 ).о :.ь о.ь а,2 - 4.2 1э.в - и.е 1г.,дс <гедlгs ( 1.4) ( - ) ( 1.4) ( - ) (1J.6) (- 10.6) ( - ) ( l.lJ (- 1.l) ( - ) ( 0-31 (' 0.7! ( 1.2) ( 2.4) (- 1.2) ( 2.1) ( - ) ( 2,1) (13.4) ( - ) ( U.й) ON�ec 2/ ( 1.51 ( - ) ( L 57 ( 7.7) ( • ) ( 7.Э) ( 0,8) ( 0.4) ( О.й) ( !•3) ( 0.6) ( П-7] ( 1.В) ( 0.2) ( L.61 ( 2.1) ( ' ) ( 2.1) ( О.Ы ( - ) ( 0.4) D. О(f1ci:1 с,р(tл1 15.7 ].В 11.9 16__7 Э�1 U.ц 9�1 2.2 6.9 5�6 2�9 2п7 5_b 2`9 2`] S_1 1^2 2�,7 Ь_1 7.6 2;5 Г.пгг-�l Gоvггг�пспс lonq-cerm 9,4 1,7 ь.7 7,4 д,4 5.U 7.0 0.9 2.1 l.6 1.0 0.6 L 5 О.В П.7 7.В 0.7 ].l 7.7 1,l 2.6 o:hr[ г.гп[гаl Сгvгггтопг )7 - 0.2 - о.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' - 0,2 - 0.2 - 0,1 - 0.1 РсSг оЕ puбiic лгссог 6.7 ц.9 5.4 9.) 1.1 8.2 6.1 1.7 4.8 4.0 1.9 2.1 4.1 2.1 2.0 1J 2,7 - 0.6 2.4 2.4 - Е. F(п.,xtal епсlгlсу 7�0 4�4 2�6 4;9 )Г4 l_5 2_Р 7�9 П.t 10.7 4_0 Ь_7 71.В 5�6 15.2 20 А 14_0 9.0 19.6 10.2 9�4 .::tг.�. � ига (гхсlидiпд С) )�4 t�й 2.L ];] }^<. П.1 1.7 2;9 1.6 7.7 ]�7 4.С 12.7 4.7 8.0 3.1 4.7 0.6 10.) _ �гс.п2тi:'•У,гьсгvг Вепk 1о.,пв 4.4 2.l 2.) 2,3 2.5 - 0.2 1.2 2.7 • L.l 5.1 i.9 3.2 10.о 2.) 7.7 1.8 J.3 - 1.5 8.9 г'� 7 9 ьопс еггт i.й 1.4 - 0.8 1.5 - о.7 П.! 1.о - о.9 - о,4 - о.а - � - - - - - - • - кгдi:,т сеса 7,0 0.7 2.7 1,5 1.0 �о,5 1.1 !.7 - 0,2 5.1 l-S Э.Ь 10•0 2,7 7.7 - - - • - - 5„7-гг�рс:оп. Сг п� - ,е[агу . tm сп,.rtепплl otgonltaelonв 1.6 2.1 - 0.7 . 0.9 - 0.9 0.1 0.6 . 0.5 2.6 l.7 0.4 2.7 . 2.7 0.4 1.3 1.7 - o,t 1.4 1.9 - 0.5 г_п,.,..гс!,1 лапь5 с��г[) 1.0 - 1.о 1.о _ 1.о - - - - о.1 - о,1 - о.1 - 0.( - о.2 - о,1 - 0.1 - o.t t.оп-:яоп.�[агу flnrnctal епсгг[ее - . - S,6 - 1.b 1.5 - 1.5 3.0 0 J 2.7 9.1 0,9 8.2 12.7 6.1 6.6 5.6 1,2 4.4 д!1х п ton о( 50А . - _ - ' - - ' - ' ' ' " - 4.2 - L.2 ?.7 . 3.7 Г. Errors апд етlггеопг, ne[ � 3,4 Э.4 2.8 _ 2.В ^,_ - 5,4 5.4 _^ 0.5 0.1 �- _ - 12.4 __ __ - 4.1 __.,_ � L 0 С. Interпa[tonal resrrvaa, пеt 0.! 10,3 - 10 2 ?t__4 [0,0 Li.G 2.4 0.Э ?.б 3.3 В.7 - 5.4 12.о 7,( 4.9 _8_2 2Э.2 -[5.0 5.3 5,1 Со1Е г�Фsггlрсlоп [о INP - 1.l - 1.Э - - - - - • - ' - ' ' " - ' - ' - - н„г�л,.е. lгот )r;e _ . - zo.o - z0,o - - - 7.о - ].о - 2,7 - :.7 - 7.s - г,s Э.г , з.7 огмгг сггсгаl в.,пи пsьгы а - 1.6 -!.б - 6,9 - 6.9 2.1 - 2.1 - 7.2 - 7.2 5.6 - 5.6 - 6.5 - 6.5 - о,5 - о.5 Oxrirr Сепгr�l Н,,п•• 77.,ь[21с1еа 0.1 - 0.[ 0.4 - 0.4 • - - - 0.7 - 0.3 5.1 - 5,1 - 4.3 - 4.] - O,L - 0.[ Соа�..гсlаl 8лпk asses2s � - 1.5 - 1.7 1,о - 1.П - O,J - 0.7 0.3 - 0.3 1.7 - 1.1 - й.9 . 4.9 l.6 - 1.6 Спп.?rcial ьапk 11.:bc1tclea - 5.9 - 5.9 - 3.1 - J.2 0,8 - 0.8 - 1.2 - 1.2 - � 4.6 - 4,4 8.2 - 8.2 - й.l - L.7 1% Eapпrts, f.o.6.: lерггг•, е.[.£. Includcs топге.,:У 2о1дУ^ У--- �_--��- --- Т-�-�•- ?7 7пс1„д��s ch�n�rs : г�р�г_2в atroad. �г _ - .дсгпп Сочегппnпс :.rccrir.ce l�г7д aDroad. 5nurr�� re.+;rs1 ?cserve ...,пk .,.-.,, 7ttF, Týible, lý.2: EL SALVADOR: TRADE,WITH CENTRAL AMRRICA, 1960-71 1963 196 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 (In rUllions of U.S. dollars) 12.3 30 - 36.8 45.3 58.6 79.2 811.9 711 -8 73.0 79.7 a R, i e ý1 0.9 7 U-U 19.1 20.7 6.1 16 . 5 15.1 20.3 23.8 32.8 30.8 35.8 39.7 43.6 .).9 8.5 10.ý 1)4.1 16.8 20.0 23.-5 12.8 - - 1.), 1.9 4. 2 6.2 9.9 13.6 14.9 10.9 Us. 2 15.4 13.5 2R.0 39.2 1ý2.5 51.0 511. 6 65-.2 6n.,ý, 6o.6 61..8 O.b ".1 7.2 5.1 Rica --I- -ý --9 b.g 6. 11.2 10.2 5.2 12.7 16.3 18.5 27.2 30.0 34.5 38.2 4o.6 41.6 6.3 jo.8 .13.0 15.7 13.3 12.4 14.8 7.3 wi r ua 1.4 2.4 2.7 3.2 5.6 5.3 6.9 6.2 8.8 10.0 trad,ý balance - 1.2 2 - 3 - 2 jj 2.8 6.6 2)1.6 i2.1 jý.6 13.1 117.9 (As percentage of total trade) E:rports, f.o.b. 12.0 20.2 21.0 23.8 30.9 38.1 140.1 37 -0 32.2 35.0 1ý7.rDrts, c.i.f. 11.0 -L8.4 20.4 21.0 23.5 24.3 30.5 28.8 2d.4 24.9 Source: Central Reserve Barýc Table 3.3: EL SALVADOR: PRINCIPAL EXPORTS, 1963-72 (In millions of U.S. dollars) Est. 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 S:0expor n, f .o.b. l,-.2 175.5 190.0 189.5 2<7. 212.4 202.1 228.3 227.3 25.7 a ua rd:s121..1 1ý8.6 Vi5.1 128.1 .122 123.1 121.6 1166.9 136.2 C~~v- i /y. 03 92 67 97.56 92U 7.2 Ii2 -91.1 116. S ah b-prod4cts 2/ 61.0 39.8 40.9 27.1 18.4 16.0 22.1 25.0 - 31.0 36.2 >4.5 4.3 3.1 4.8 3.6 4.2 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 3/ 4.6 4.2 5.4 7.5 12.6 10.9 7.3 5.4 8.h UrQI prod':ts 23.J1 35.7 1.3 56.5 68.7 81.7 72.9 73.6 84.1 S r d by-prot.ts 5/ . 6 2. 6 9.7 6~.3 c r c.3t!:fLz 1/ ~ 2.9 3.h 5.0 5.2 5.9 4.7 3.6 2.8 2.6 e Ire _ucts~ 3.9 5.6 7.6 9.5 12.5 15.0 ih.0 13.7 15.0 Tcl nd clct'hing 8.2 10.7 13.2 18.8 22.8 25.6 22.9 22.3 25.0 P, ýr a-d printin-; 2.1 3.1 3.5 3.6 4.6 4.5 3.8 4.0 4.5 Pc ~role C: 1riva.tives 4.8 5.1 3.6 2.9 3.9 4.1 2.7 1.1 1.1 3.3 4.2 5.8 8.9 13.9 18.1 19.3 21.4 25.6 nelissified e-ports 0.7 1.2 3.6 3.9 7.0 1.7 7.7 7.8 .7.5 _7 1/ Idjusted for ba1ance of paymnts purposos (green coffee). 2/ 7ncludes clkes and flours from seeds and cotton. / h?r fojd preducts, ajonjoli sez13, natural balms, and fresh fruits. 4/ tiffercatil. in coffee, margarine, and vegetable butter. n cluse s---ar candies. Sourje: Central Reserve Bank and IBD Staff estimates. Table EL SALVADOR: SUMMARY OF IMPORTS, 1962-72 Prel. Est. 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Total imports, c.i.f. 124.8 151.7 191.1 200.6 220.0 22) 9 213.5 209.2 213-6 247.8 273.9 Consumer goods 49.1 5a J 60.2 61.9 7113 70.1 71.7 66.1 71.1 74.2 Nondurables 39.4 40.9 45.6 47.7 55.6 52.1 57.0 51.7 53.5 56.4 Durables 9.8 12.4 14.6 14.1 15.7 18.0 14.7 14.4 17.6 17.9 Intermediate goods _6.8 46.6 64.6 65.2 75.4 82.9 . L7.1 8 98.2 Tndustry 25.7 50.9 40.8 46.1 55.9 60.8 62.9 67.8 66.8 77.5 Agriculture 9.4 15.7 21.9 16.5 16.7 19.5 17.5 17.4 16.0 17.0 Other 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.6 3.7 Lubricants and fuels 7-4 13.0 12.5 10.1 10.8 10.9 12.0 8.6 4.8 _1.0 Refined 6.6 5.3 5.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 Unrefined 0.8 7.7 9.1 7.8 8.8 8.9 10.1 6.6 2.6 10.9 Construction materials and capital goods 31.6 _8.9 539 63 62.4 60.0 45.2 46.7 52.0 61.5 Construction materials 8.1 11.2 13.2 16.4 16.4 14.3 13.4 15.5 14.2 15.4 Capital goods 25.5 27.7 A0.7 47.0 46.0 45,7 31.8 33.2 37.8 46.1 Agriculture 3.8 5.1 6.1 5.5 4.0 3.1 3.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 Industry 9.5 8.8 14.9 17.5 16.0 17.8 13.3 13.4 15.2 16.4 Transport 6.6 9.0 12.8 14.6 19.0 17.8 8.2 10.4 10.9 14.9 Construction 1.1 1.2 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2 3.8 5.5 Other 2.5 3.6 4.0 6.7 4.2 4.3 5.1 3.1 4.0 6.7 Unclassified imports - - - - - 1.2 0.1 _ 0.9 (Ratios) Ratio of imports of consumer goods to consumption expenditure 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.1 9.7 9.1 8.8 7 8 * Nondurables 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 7 . .9 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 Durables 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 Ratio of imports of intermediate goods to GNP 5.8 6.9 8 1 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.2 9.2 8.4 9.2 Industry 4.0 4.6 5.5 5.8 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 6.6 7.3 Ag <culture 1.5 2.0 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 o!,r 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 Ratio of imports of capital goods and construction materials to gorss fixed capital formation 40.6 48.& 51.3 53.5 47.9 45.1 44.2 42.7 44.6 37.6 Ratio of fuels and lubricants to GNP 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.2 Ratio of total imports to GNP 19.6 22.6 25.9 25.4 26.3 23.5 23.8 22.2 21.1 23.3 24.2 Sources: Central Reserve Bank. Table 3. - EL SALVADOR: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1963-1972 (In millions of dollars) Central Reserve Bank Total Weeks o7 End Gold and Commercial Banks Banking Current of Foreign Net IMF Reserve Total Foriegn Exchange Total System Paments T,iod Echanae Position Liabilities (net) Assets Liabilities (net) (net) (net) 1963 39.4 2.8 -0.5 41.7 3.7 -8.1 -4.4 37.3 10.6 196 4 48.4 5.0 -0.3 53.1 5.1 -1-7.4 -12.3 4o.8 9.4 1965 50.0 6.2 -0.3 55.9 6.6 -11.6 -5.0 50.9 11.0 1966 56.9 -13.8 -0.7 42.2 5.6 -8.4 -2.8 39.6 7.7 1267 54.8 -13.7 -0.7 40.4 5.9 -9.3 -3.4 37.0 7.2 1968 61.9 -16.7 -0.4 44.6 5.6 -8.o -2.4 42.4 8.4 1969 56.3 -14.0 -5.5 36.8 4.3 -3.7 0.6 37.4 7.5 1970 62.8 -6.5 -1.2 55.1 9.2 -11.9 -2.7 52.4 10.2 1971 63.2 -10.2 -1.0 52.0 7.5 -7.2 0.3 52.3 9.4 Oct.1971 62.9 -10.2 -1.7 )1.0 8.11 -4.1 4.3 55.3 Oct.l972 83.5 0 -2.5 81.0 8.7 -2.8 5.9 86.9 Scurce: Central Reserve Bank and IMF. D. EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT Table L:1: EL SALVADOR: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U. S. dollars) TYPE OF CREDITOR CREDITOR-COUNTRY DISBURSED UNDISBURSED T 0 T A L TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 91,869 42,333 134,202 Private Banks 15,228 oo 15,723 Canada 1,500 500 2,000 USA 13,728 - 13,728 Publicly issued bonds 953 - 953 United Kingdam 13 - 13 USA 940 - 9L0 Privately placed bonds 1,000 - 1,000 USA 1,000 - 1,000 Loans from international organizations 43,281 21,829 65,110 CABEI (Central American Bank for Economic Integration) 7,468 10,869 18,337 IBRD 23,751 5,360 29,111 IDA 7,999 5,60o 13,599 IDB 4.,o63 - 4,063 Loans from governments 31,L07 20,00 511411 Canada 3,416 1700 51 Germany 1 i 108 2 62 USA 2.6h7 17286 43.733 AID 25,6" 1 0,897 , Export-Import Bank 804 2,389 3,193 NOTE: Dobt irth a maturity of over one year. Source: Econcmic and Social Data Division, Econ.nic Program Department, I51?D, July 25, 1-72. Pa�clef?1 �а�1е 1:.� : �� �.".L:�.:.�it � r�._,U�TLJ FtT1'Ln?1; � RVICE PAYI�'.Т�1'S 02( E7CTF�tпAI, r��r о��;�f�..���„c7 iiaCLй�z:гG ц��l.пгг��с1; �,� ог п.�,с���:�г 31, 1971 (?tCpa�*&Ъ1е in Forezgn Currency) (Тп �ho�.zsa�d� о� U.S. dollars) �Е2Т GUi'5T�NDIi1G Ti�AFJSACTI0N5 OURING PEFiI00 еЕсгг:мТкG nE QЕ�ггао САиСЕ►.• LATioиs. oi�eu�;sEO IкСl.иогг�s Cnaз��ttT° qIS0uR5E• sERVICE РАУгаЕиТб АО.lUST• vE,iR O��LY UNDISDUZSED M�NTS MENTS PRIfdCIPAL IиTEREST TOTAI MENTS с11 с2� с31 caD cs1 c6I ст9 �в� 1�G7 61,17э 8?,62G 11д475 8,?э? Э,95б 1,982 5,939 •116 t�r5r� в5,чч4 90,огТ 1i:oгs, 1о,5эо э,5г1 2,o9i б.обг -iQo ivг:� ��.4аа 9�,:Q1 z4.5sa 16доое э,sТТ ?,rгб в,зоэ - i��a вц,»эь i1в,г7z в,Аво т,56б 5,аее з•5гз 9.а11 •17Т 19Т2 l56,72? 120,68Т ?5в35� 1бв990 11в8б2 3в722 15о584 20 197? 91,g69 134,202 '° 15,0Э9 ув989 3s63? 11вб2f -4Sэ 19ТЭ 97,9бб 125л?50 • 1бв12а 9в45Т 3►669 13в126 • 197р 104,630 11`5'ЕЭ02 " 7,Oi4 9д2?Т 3,б11 12в937 • 1975 10?►478 106,57b ° ?.,®58 iл318 э,36Т 10вб85 • 19�b 9в,о1в 99,?5в " 1д24о бдi09 эдiз9 9д268 - iv77 9Э,148 93•1ц8 ° = 4вэ9а 2,®98 Тв292 • 197R 88,Т54 88в754 ' - 4,В01 %.T19 Tr320 • 1Ч79 84,15Э 84.153 • • 4rб24 2,516 Ts14o • 198а 79,529 74,529 ' ° 4,Т83 2вЭ16 Т,099 • lчбt т4,7а4 74в74б - - 4,�оз гiо9а 7.оо1 - 14�? 69,еА3 69,84Э ' • 4,948 1в9б1 бл9о8 • 199Э б4,Н95 64,Q95 • • 5,02Э 1вТ4Я блТТ2 , • 195а 59,АТ2 59,6Т2 ° - Э,263 1,559 4д822 � 1985 56.6U9 5б,бQ9 ° д 3в248 1д44д �Фдб98 " 1v8b 53дЭб? 53д362 ` т 3,Оо9 1,339 ar348 а t:0:�г Includes serиice оп ац debt listed on Tab1e 1 prepared Ju1� 25, 1972 frith the exceptior. of the faцoc,ri.пg for xhich rгp�-цrment texтns are not availaЫe: � Totz1 ��з Pt.�blicly-iosued ba_1ds 953 г�_�--..._:..... �;� n�t �:х�,_�.-iт. � ci ::r':i 1v.9 ,�i��.ic:� с�_?.:-�1e:�t t.o �20.� miцiont -- ��� �1� �г1?, , а.о i�:.CE'.i�iC)2r' , ,�, Table )4-2: EL E,;TD'tAT--',D Fur'Ual, 5MVICE PAf,-L7-!,rTS 0.14 EXTER"'i-kL Page 2 of 11 M;' T I:.1,LjD11;G Ul 'DISBITSED AS OF DECE-3Z-11 31 1971 (Rcpayable in Foreign Currency) (In cf U.S. dollars) FiRIVATE 0,24,NttS 0 fo'T OUTSTAti,)T',-. TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD T Q OF r CANCELO LATIONSP Dlr-:URSFD I:i, LUDING CO NITO DISSURSE0 SERVICE PAYMENTS A0JUSTm 11 R ONLY UNDIccURSED mznTS TOTAL MENTS, MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) c?) ca) AP550 5,0050 IP000 900 t#334 299 IP633 3PT16 4j,716 8,0000 50000 844 290 1#134 TP87? t1j8T2 sst2a 90m 926 494 IP420 1970 16#014 16,oO74 t#130 Ipt30 -2.#768 IP194 3*962 1971 14P437 14P437 9P500 9POO0 8*209 1,0058 9,#267 1972 15P 28 l5p7?8 500 3P307 IP232 4P539 11 73 12P421 12,#421 4#317 973 5P?85 1974 80109 80109 3#995 608 4#603 1975 4#114 4PI14 2,o464 284 2#148 197o 1*650 10650 1#650 108 10158 PURLICLY ISSUED BONDS 1967 958 958 13 13 -03 1 ,68 955 955 29 32 1969 952 952 28 28 1970 952 952 27 27 1971 952 952 32 32 1 y 7 953 953 0953 Page 3 of 11 Table 4.2: EL SALVADDR : ESTrotTED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL DH9T OUTSTA:DING INCLUDING UNIDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 (Repayable in Foreign Currency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) PRIVATELY PLACED BONDS DEBT OUTSTANDING TRAN$ACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL LATIONSP DISBURSED INCLUDING COMIT OISBURSE* SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST; YEAR OILY UNDISCURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1969 1 000 1000 m 7; 1970 1,000 1,000 - * 72 72 1971 1P000 IP000 m 72 72 1972 10000 1.O00 - 500 61 561 1973 500 500 500 26 526 Page �д сС 11 ТаЫе It.?_: EL SALiI.'1.T�R : Е� �iAT�D Гt�"1'ц!2Е ,�:i�vl�� P��Гr�t;TS ON E.YTEfiI1'� z��пr ацтsт�l,�I,rа Iг:сг.цццгс ца�zsвцнSт:D дs aF DLC��:.}г 31, 1971 � (Р�ср?���`�1е дn �'orei�n Curx�ency) (In �}iou�« ;�,; oi' ц. S. доllагs) �.�гаг;s �га�.} fr�тc,e a�o4r�Iaдrlaмs �ct� ОЕ©У OuTSTAttOI�ЭG TR��;SACT1aM5 OuRINa Pë:RI00 CEG I Nt; I t;8 af PER I OQ оАN0��Ф �Ai%ONSa OISCU?5E0 I��CLUDIiч(3 COtSг4IT• D1Sb'JRSEm SE�tVICE PAYRtENTS AбJUSi• r��� а�,�У ur;aiscu�s�o s��г+т5 м�иТS �RINCYI'AL I�Vi�REST �'oiAl. ���dTS cs� с2� сз) с4� css t�: с» се� 1Ч_±57 4Э 1в187 ц,�8Т5 ?i2 9 2 pt •4 lvье зов б,оцэ 25 а49 2з 54 в2 •i lC'_9 7б1 бл050 10,64Q 471 ЭТ 95 1�2 Q 19г0 1�715 1Вл613 55U ?,511 21f 116 Э2Т °Э09 1vi1 3,51Т 1б,643 i�44Y ц,?54 ЗОб 3b1 ббТ � 1Ч77 7,цб8 16,33Т � 4,1?3 30Т Э9� б4� • 197з 11,2вц 1�,оэо - э,srT 595 558 Y.tsз р lчга 1а,2ьb 17.цзs • з.1вэ аоа 7sг i,s2s • 1vг5 16s6?6 1б,ь76 • • f,эоо а24 2,i25 • 1976 15,Э2б 15,Э96 • • 1в298 Т48 2s046 • 1977 1ц,078 1ц,028 ' » 1,024 бТ5 1вб98 � 1v7A 13.Об5 13,Q�5 " ° 1,009 6f8 l,б2Т � 1979 11,996 11,996 " • 1л009 5б2 1в5Т1 • 19L0 10r987 10в98Т� • ' 1л009 50б 1а�'i1S °° 1ц�'�1 4,918 9,978 • • 95Э 450 1л4рЭ � 1ЧГ,7 9,0?.б 9,02д • • $9i �99 112Q5 о 19Fэ в,t29 в.1�9 � • 89Т 349 i,2a6 ° I��C 7,?3Э 7s?.Э3 ° • 651. Э04 955 " 1у.; 6,53� fi,532 ^ • б51 2�5 924 ° 1";� 5.9Э1 5в93! ' " 654 ;��*� В93 • Page 5 of 11 Table h.2: EL SJ'1VJL)0q : ESTE WED FUTURE SLWICE PAYl-ENTS Oil EXTMNAL DE311 OUP,' Tt ,DI17,,G INCLUDING LTIFDISBURSED AS OF DECZMBM- 31) 1971 (Rcpayable irt Foreign Currency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) L 0 Im S FCCH INTLa ORGANIZATIONS IBRD DEIST OUTSTANDII!G TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING nF PERIOD CANCELS LATIONSP DIS4UROED INCLUDING C C." M IT DISBURSES SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST- YEAR ONLY UNDIS.DURSED MINTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTERE-ST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) M C6) C?) 1907 27#905 31,P309 2,0800 3#118 1#468 10109 2#5?? 19-58 29PI55 32P560 624 IP929 IP549 3P478 19 19 27P.950 300651 4P900 7 2P028 IP492 3PS20 19110 25P829 33P522 1#139 2PI31 IP432 3#563 1971 24P837 31P391 IP194 ?#280 1.*392 3#672 1972 23P751 29P111 107?5 2#435 to-306 3#741 1973 23PO41 26p6T6 IP677 ?P566 IP257 3P823 1974 22PI47 24.s110 1#225 2#401 1,o218 3#619 197r) 20J.971 ?IP709 738 1.0742 IA183 2P925 197f) 19#967 19,#967 1#337 IP152 2,o489 1,)77 18,o630 18,*630 IP419 IP074 2#493 1978 17P211 170211 IP497 993 2#490 1979 15P714 15P714 1#698 907 2P605 1Q30 14P016 14P016 10,787 810 2P597 1981 12029 12#229 IP904 707 2,o 6 11 1932 1OP325 10p3P5 2v006 598 2P604 1933 8,o319 8#319 2pill 483 2#594 1"A 60208 6#208 629 382 10011 5P579 5.*579 609 346 955 1 4 j, 9 7 0 A A 9 70 365 312 67? Page 6 of 1i Tabic 4.2: EL SALEDCR :EIIMATED FUTUP SERVICE PAYMNTS ON FITERNAL D-LT OThSTANDING IlCLUDING U71DISEURSED AS OF DECEmBER 31, 1971 (Repayable in Foreign Currency) (In thoucands of U.S. dollars) LO.NS F2":1 INTLo OiGANIZATIONS IDA DEDT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL* LATIONS> DIS3URSED INCLUDING C0.1IT* DISBUnSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST- YEAR OULY UNDISCURSED tETS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) c8) 1967 5#601 8#000 1P302 4 46 46 1968 6m903 8s000 497 26 26 I69 7,399 8P000 " 274 - 53 53 * 1970 7P673 8.000 * 327 * 59 59 1971 70999 7,999 5#600 * 60 60 1972 7P999 13P599 - 840 40 60 i00 * 1973 8#799 13P559 - 1120 80 66 146 - 1974 9o839 13P479 " 19680 80 74 154 - 1979 11.439 13P399 1s120 80 86 166 * 1976 12#479 13#319 840 so 93 173 1477 13239 13. p 80 99 179 1978 13#159 13P159 * 80 99 179 1979 13079 13P079 s * 80 98 178 * 1910 12P999 12p999 * * 80 97 177 * 1981 12#919 1?919 " * 136 97 233 * 1982 12P783 12,783 * * 216 96 312 1983 12P567 12,567 a 296 94 390 1934 12?.71 12*271 a * 296 91 387 1 11#975 11.975 * * 296 89 385 1 11.679 11o6 79 a a 296 87 383 a Page 7 of 11 Table h.2: EL SALVAXR : ESTINATED FUIURE SERVICE PAYISNTS ON EXTERNAL D73T OUSTAIKDING I1,CLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 (Rep2,able in Foreign Currency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) L0ANS Fr"1O INTLe ORGANIZATIONS ID3 DEBT OUTSTANOING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERI00 BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL LATIONS. DISUURSED INCLUDING C0I Tl DISBURSE* SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO YEUR ONLY UUDISCUnS`D m,E NTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS C1) (2) (3) (4) (6) (7) (6) 19 67 22.08812 201? 80 511 189 166 355 1<768 3>134 5>423 • 630 709 199 408 1V69 3>556 5p215 - 868 229 220 449 1970 4#195 4986 • 64? 425 254 679 1971 4p412 4>561 60 209 557 256 813 -1 1972 4>063 4#063 - 509 230 739 1973 3p554 3554 - - 513 200 714 1974 3>041 3>041 • 535 170 705 1975 2>506 2>506 • 319 142 461 1976 ?>187 2>187 • 324 123 447 1977 1>863 1*863 • 329 104 433 1978 1p534 1#534 335 85 420 1979 1>199 1,199 341 65 406 1980 858 858 • 347 45 392 1981 510 510 • 350 24 375 1982 160 160 • 123 5 128 1983 37 37 9 1 10 I - r a 28 28 9 1 10 1 3 19 19 9 1 10 1 _ 9 9 9 10 Page 8 of 11 Table h.2: EL S!LVADOR : ESTI1ATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYIENTS ON EXTERNAL DEXE OUTSTA'DING IACLUDING TZISBURSED AS OF DECFBER 31, 1971 (Repayable in Foreign Currency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) LOANS 7000 GOE'MNTS CANDA DE3T OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL* LATIONS. DIZCUPSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISOUDSE* SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST* YEAR ONLY UNDISCURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) c?) (8) 197 * 20997 44 38 38 196 43 2s997 1 1s474 * 38 38 1969 1P518 ?P997 * 1409 38 38 * 1970 2P928 2P997 2P000 74 * 41 41 210 1971 3#207 5.207 " 300 105 50 155 14 1972 3,P16 5P116 a 900 106 54 159 * 1973 4010 5.010 800 106 97 703 * 1974 4,905 4.905 * * 106 136 242 1975 4,799 4,799 * * 138 135 .73 * 1976 4P661 4.661 * * 171 131 302 a 1977 4,490 4490 * 171 126 297 1978 4P318 4318 a 171 122 293 a 1979 4P147 4P147 * * 171 It? 288 a 1980 3P976 3P976 * * 171 112 284 a 1981 3.905 3P605 * * 171 108 279 19A7 3P633 3P633 * * 171 103 274 a 1983 3P462 3#462 a * 171 99 270 * 1 ?94 3, 291 3p291 * * 171 94 265 a 198a 3. t20 3p 120 * * 171 89 261 a 1-'6 6>949 2P949 a 171 85 256 a Page 9 of 11 Table 4.2: EL SALVADOR : ESTI21ATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 (Repayable in Foreign Currency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) LO$r- FnQM COVERNENTS GE0!ANY (FEDs.EPerF6) DEDT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELS LATIONSP DISCURSED INCLUDING C0:tMIT DISOURSE* SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST* YEAR ONLY UNDISOURSED NENTS 1*1ENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS cl) (2) C3) (4) (5) (6) (() (8) 1957 2>563 * 3 3 198* 2P563 t * 10 10 1959 2P563 - * 6 6 * 1970 2.563 a * * * "I 1971 * 2P562 * 1544 * 30 30 1972 10544 2P562 * 1018 160 60 221 1973 2P402 2s402 160 ?1 231 - 1974 ?2742 2#242 a 160 66 226 * 197s 2,082 2#082 * 160 61 221 * 1976 io922 1*922 a - 160 56 217 - 1977 1,761 1.761 a 160 52 212 * 1978 10601 1#601 a * 160 47 207 a 1979 1.441 1441 * * 160 42 202 a 1980 1281 1.281 a * 160 37 197 a 1981 1.121 1.121 * * 160 32 193 * 1982 961 961 * a 160 28 188 1983 801 801 a a 160 23 183 a 104 641 641 - * 160 18 178 * 19^S 480 480 a * 160 13 173 11,6 320 320 a 160 8 169 a Page 10 of 11 Table 4.2: EL ShLVADXR : ESVIIATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL DEUT CJSTADING INCLUDING UNDISDURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 (Repayable-in Foreign Currency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) LOANto Vrm O0VERmI.%TS USA AID DEOT OUTSTANDIG TRAMSACT!ONS DURING PERIOD CEGINNINq OF PERIO0 CANCEL* LATIONSP DISPUPSED INCLUDING C01MIT* -DISBURSE* SERVICE PAYNENTS ADJUST* YEAR OINLY UNDISOURSED MEjTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) M?) C8) 1967 16s805 22-029 - 2#389 42 160' 202 046 1963 19s152 21P941 3P000 1*806 138 173 311 19C9 20P621 24803 2,930 2P851 41 181 222 1970 23*631 27P693 40000 1#743 38 242 280 a77 1971 25P337 32,378 8.200 344 39 303 342 1 1972 25#643 40*540 4,933 38 189 226 1973 300539 40>502 * 79564 38 349 387 1974 38#065 40o465 * 10000 553 507 10060 1975 38p511 39*911 * 1000 604 571 1t5* 1976 38.907 39#307 * 400 722 701 1P423 1977 38,586 380566 * 843 744 10587 1978 37.742 37P742 1 * *165 752 1091? 1979 36P577 36,577 * 1#165 725 10891 1980 35.412 35o412 1.228 708 1#936 1981 34P164 34184 * 1228 680 1#908 a 1982 32o955 32*955 * * 1375 733 2*108 1v3 310580 31*580 * * 1o379 700 2#079 * 30.201 30*201 * * 1>346 668 2#014 1 3 20,855 2t;c55 * * 1#351 636 1*987 * 27*504 27P504 * 1*356 605 1#960 Page 11 of 11 Table h.2: EL SALVAFOR : ESTIMATED FUTURE SMRVICE PAX1ENTS ON EXTERNAL DELU OUTSTANDING INCLUDIIUM UDISBjRSSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 (Repayable in Foreign Cwrency) (In thousands of U.S. dollars) LOA:s Frra COVEflM!ENTS EXPORT-IMPORT BAn DEGT 0UTZTAt-IiG TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD DEGINNIING OF PVI0D CANCEL LATION5s DIt"URSED IIMCLUDIIG C02IT, DISCUPSEfi SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJU$* W SLY uUD15E D nV-UTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (1) (4 (5) (61 <7) 8) 19i7 2.899 5>719 96 914 146 1.060 02 195'8 2>060 4p803 • 425 11$ 543 -190 1I d-655 . p 186 316 119 435 1339 3>072 f 315 86 401 • 1971 1.024 3s557 * 145 366 108 474 2 1972 804 3193 * 19000 588 49 636 • 1973 1p216 2p605 - 1,389 585 71 658 1974 29018 201• 589 115 703 1975 1#429 1p429 • 511 82 592 • 1v76 919 919 • 368 45 413 • 1977 551 551 * 368 25 393 • 1978 184 184 •l184 5 189 f T,I)c )t.3: EL SALVADOR: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1971 Ropaycble in Local Currency (In thousands of U. S. dollars) DEBT OUTSTANDING DECEMBER 31P1971 CREnITOR COUNTRY UNDIS- TYPF OF CREDITOR DISBURSED BURSED TOTAL DI'EURJ'ZD IN LOCAL CUMZE16CY 21218 2630 23P848 0 iiS 'U'fS T' FUP FT;1 (IPo?NCY 2915 7,00t 9P304 I1r 23#433 9P719 33P152 i nANS FROM INTL.s ORrANI7ATIONS 23,433 9#719 33.152 DISETJRSF) IN LOCAL CURRENCY 1,033 1Po33 1033 1.033 IAl,S F0OM GOVFRNMENTS 1,033 1 033 TOTAL EXTERNAL PIP3LIC OERT 24,466 9,719 34#185 !PTFt nERT WITH A MATuRITY OF OVER ONr YEAR Source: IBRD Economic and Social Data Division, Econanic Program Department Page 1 of 2 Tèle l .h: EL SALVJOR: EO 9D FUTIRiE SEVjSICE PAYiENTS ON EXTERNAL PUDLIC D37T OU2STANDING INCLUDING UDISBURSED AS OF DECEIBER 31, 1971 Repayable in Local Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) nERT OtUTSTANOING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD RFGINNING OF PFRIOD CANCEL- LATIONSP nTSPLR5F INCLUDING COMkIT- DISBURSEI SERVICE PAY4ENTS ADJUSTO YFAR nl Y UNnTSRURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (?) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 19Å7 17u07 74 3A5 ?00 3>062 342 333 675 1 19e R 11,92p 24,p244 - 1,397 498 554 1,052 -8 1196 2P027 23,65s 13,300 1p694 589 570 1,159 1(7l ?r1,431 36>368 2,000 1p894 857 702 1,559 1 171 7,9r~ 37,512 - 2,313 816 701 1,517 -2#511 IZ72 ?4.066 34p185 - 6,867 990 563 1,554 • 1973 3n.343 33,195 - 2 435 1>490 668 2#158 a 1970 11`87 317) 4 - 417 1>678 662 2,339 l 1975 3n*r?7 36pu?7 - - 1,684 631 2,314 0 197K ?M,143 ?6,343 - - 1#699 593 2,?92 f 977 ?An 47,644 - - 1715 554 2p269 97P , ? ?- - 1.754 516 2p270 m 17 2R,17S ?3,175 1- 1- ?a1 476 2,300 ?1,9151 21.351 - 1p859 435 2p294 lyp1 1ly,.9? 1.492 - - 1>877 392 2,269 117,,1w 17,615 -l 1p6ö7 350 2,037 191,?7 P3t,9?7 - 1582 313 1>895 Sp 1 346 - 1>516 279 1i795 I b-2 , 9 - - 1 495 246 1>741 p 11p3l5 - 1>543 214 1>757 :OTE: :' 3 [ICE~ Olj, DE7,T LT3"i O. TA2E 1 T-PPARED JULY 10, 1972. Page 2 of 2 Yble i.6: EL SAL'DO2: LIIOTED FUTURE SERVICE PAY1ENTS ON kXTERNAL P1BLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING IECLUDIIUG UJDISBURSED AS OF DECMEER 31, 1971 (Repnyable in Local Currency) (In thousand of U.S. dollars) LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS' DISBURSED IN FOREIGN CURRENCY nEPT nUTSTANnINIG TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD PYGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELm LATIONSP TSHOPSEn INCILUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST- YE0R ONLY UNDIS3URSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL N4ENTS (1) <2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 5c ~ - f -2 2 59 -- -7 7 59 9,750 - - 20 20 '59 ,91p500 65v 3 72 75 - 11 1- 1>502 2 89 91 •2p000 .97? ? 1 9. 30 - 4,9a7 136 103 238 197 7, 7n7 9 - 1,7?5 r55 190 545 1,6 , 41/ 4 205 647 1975 p,17 1 371 - - 514 202 716 19 7 57 7, m57 - - 514 189 703 1Q?7 4 7,343 - 514 176 690 1978 g 3f0 6,k3- - 514 163 677 1979 6,116 6p316 - 514 150 664 1 ,?,90? - 514 137 650 1981 ,5288 - - 514 124 637 19J2 4,774 LP774 - - 514 111 624 • 19 3 ,-961 'A261 - - 514 97 611 1p>4 ,7tu7 3,717 - 480 84 565 1o5 39 67 3,267 - - 447 73 520 9 2>? 19 ?,819 -- 447 6? 509 E. PUBLIC FINANCE Table 5.1: EL SALVADOR: PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS, 1965-71 (In millions of colones) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Actual (1) Central Government Current revenue 224.4 223.1 226.2 230.4 250.8 280.8 299.8 Transfers from RPS ( 3.4) ( 3.9) ( 3.5) ( 3.7) ( 3.6) ( 3.7) ( 4.5) Currcnt expenditures 169.9 185.4 189.5 210.1 227.4 262.6 261.4 Tr;'nslFers to RPS (22.4) (28.6) (29.2) (34.0) (34.0) (52.2) (51.1) Current account surplus 51.5 37.7 36.7 20.3 23.4 18.2 38.4 (2) Rest of the Public Sector Current revenue 95.9 107.8 116.2 134.9 145.3 167.7 161.8 Transfers from CC (22.4) (28.6) (29.2) (34.0) (34.0) (52.2) (51.1) Current expenditures 79.9 93.0 99.7 109.6 119.8 125.1 118.1 Trans[ers to CG ( 3.4) ( 3.9) ( 3.5) ( 3.7) ( 3.6) ( 3.7) ( 4.5) Curr(:nt account surplus 16.0 14.8 16.5 25.3 25.5 42.6 43.7 (3) Total Public Sector Current revenue 394.5 298.4 309.7 327.6 358.5 392.6 406.0 Current expenditures 224.0 245.9 265.5 282.0 309.6 331.8 323.9 Current account surplus 70.5 52.5 53.2 45.6 48.9 60.8 82.1 Investment expenditures 90.8 97.6 83.9 71.3 89.6 87.8 111.6 Direct Investment 67.7 79.4 60.8 49.7 63.8 62.6 82.2 Transfers to private sector 23.1 18.2 23.1 21.6 25.8 25.2 29.4 Capital receipts 7.2 5.3 3.2 4.0 4.3 7.5 1.2 Overall surplus(+) or deficit(-) -13.1 -39.8 -27.5 -21.7 -30.5 -20.3 -28.3 External financing, net 36.0 36.0 17.5 19.5 32.2 6.6 16.6 Di;bursements 50.0 51.3 28.3 29.8 42.7 23.5 48.3 Armortization 14.0 15.3 10.8 10.3 10.5 16.9 31.7 Domestic borrowing, net -22.9 3.8 10.0 2.2 4.2 13.7 11.7 Central Bank, net -14.4 24.9 8.7 16.4 29.0 -14.6 15.9 Corunercial Banks, net - 5.3 2.5 1.4 - 3.9 1.6 - 2.4 2.0 Other (residual) - 3.2 -23.6 - 0.1 -10.3 -26.4 30.7 - 2.2 Source: Central !Reserve Bank and IBRD Staff estimates. Table 5.2 EL SALVADOR: REVENUES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 1951-72 Jan- June 1951 1960 19C5 1913 19 198 1969 1970 1971 Estim'.ed Budget 1971 1972 (in millfons of colones) Tetal current revenues 117.6 1 2?44 1 226.2 20A 4 250.8 280.8 299.8 306.2 317.1 169.7 1(6.9 Tax revenues 110.4 1 "113 «10.0 ~1 0 _f0 2-;9.4 2(.. 283.0 287l 291.9 164.0 162.1 Direct tas .3 .. 43-9 s0. i ,,6.34, 73.5 64.9 69.9 69.0 73.5 54.6 53.4 - 45. 2 9.0 39.7 45.3 43.0 45.0 347 - . inheritance tax 1.6 2.1 2.4 1.7 30 3.4 4.7 4.4 4.6 26.0 5.5 2.3 1.8 Canitral tax 1. 5.2 7.3 7.5 .b> 17.7 20.5 20.5 19.7 23.0 17.5 15.5 Emergency tax - - 9.3 0.3 0.1 - - - Tay h relv'm träde 76.1 96.1 99.5 9·.4 90.4 77.3 84.6 113.5 106.6 111.0 109.8 55.7 5?.5 sta7biliza:i In tax - - - - - 1.4 10.7 13.5 14.8 67.0) 72.6) 7.2 - Otler Import taxes 41,9 69.2 7 .7 r.7 59.4 41.5 46.5 51.5. 53.6 44.0) 37.2) 26.0 - Expnrt taxes 34.3 26.3 '> 33.7 31.0 24.4 27.4 45.5 IS.2 22.5 19.4 Tay9 on dornestie transactions 25.0 41.3 62.4 69.7 71.4 73.4 81.3 28,7 106.5 107.1 108.6 53.7 56.2 Lquor and beer 10.5 19.3 23.2 23.7 22. 22.6 . 24.6 26.5 2e.6 - - 13.2 13.9 Cigarettes 4.3 7.6 '0.5 10. 10.9 10.5 11.1 12.2 12.5 - - 6.3 6.3 519ar 1. 2.0 3, 4.1 4.4 4,. 5.0 4.9 5.3 - 2.6 2,7 P(tro1eu- p roducts 0.5 - 14.0 13,9 19.0 16.9 16.7 17,2 18.9 - - 9.3 8.9 other consumption taxes 0.6 1.2 3-0 3.0 3.' 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.1 - 2.1 2.1 Stamp ta: 2.2 4.0 -. 7.1 7.< 8.2 8.6 12.53/ 23.2 26.0 27.1 11.7 11.6 Automobtile registrations 0.7 2.1 3.7, 5.9 3.: 3.4 5.4 4.4 5.4 - - 3.5 3.9 other taxkl 4.4 5.0 3., 1.4 3.6 4.2 6.6 7.3 8.5 - - 5.0 6.8 Nýontax revenu- , - LZ .M 4 . ilý L L_4- vi '1.4 1_1_4 .iu. 16.8 F1.1 25.2 ._5q Transfers from rest of pub. &ec. 2.9 7.1 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.r 3.7 6.2 - - 0.8 0.5 capital receipts - - - - 0.5 0.1 2.1 8.7 - - - Special f,nds mceipts - - 4.9 1.3 0-1. 1.5 2.0 - 4- - Other 4.3 5.3 3. 7.9 10.2 , .1 3.7 1.3 10.er- . - 4.9- 4.3- (As percentage of CNP) lotal revenue 12.7 12.1 11.4 10. 10 10.1 10. 11.? 11.3 10.8 11.2 - - Tax revenues 11.9 11.2 10. 10.0 9 9. 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.1 10.3 _ - Ptrect taes 1.0 1.5 .3 ..1 2.9 3.1 2.0 2.7 -- - - Taxcs on foreign trade /.2 602 5 1¯ 4.1 3.4 3.6 4.5 4.0 - - - Tas on dc:mestlc tr.nsaction! 2.7 2.9 3.5 .. 3,3 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 - - Nontax revenues 0.9 0.9 O1 _0. 0., 0.6 _0.5 0.6 0.. 0.9 -- 1/ Inclutes C4.5 million accruing from Income taxes collected in prevjous years and deposited into Treasurv accounts In 19"7. SZnc?,«dcs c. 2 million ar]sing from a change In the income tax wi thholdIng proceures adopted in .Julv 19,. Ineludes C3.0 million arfsino, from the Incrcase in the stamp tax. inc lve;es revenues from factor payment saTc9 of goods and services. toxes nn serviees,. current transfers from the prIvatc sector, and others. Solrces: Ministrv of linance: Central <rerve Rank. Table 5.3: EL SALVADOR: COFFEE EXPORTS AND COFFEE TAXAION, 1942, 1946 AD 1950-71 (In millions of current colones) Year Value of *Collections export Collections as coffee exports tax on coffee Dercent of exports 1942 37.1 1.4 3.6 1946 51.6 4.4 8.5 1950 154.5 n.a. 1951 190.1 n.a. 1952 194.0 n.a. 1953 191.5 35.0 18.3 1954 230.0 46.2 20.1 1955 228.8 49.0 21.,4- 1956 218. 43.5 19.9 1957 274.6 5.5 19.9 1958 210.2 35. 16.8 1959 178.2 24.8 13.9 1960 191.7 26.3 13.7 1961 175.4 22.3 12.7 1962 189.2 19.9 10.5 1963 186.5 21.6 11.6 1964 232.1 30.5 13.1 1965 238.9 36.0 15.1 1966 222.6 32.6 14.7 1967 242.7 30.1 12.4 1968 230.5 23.7 10.3 1969 217.9 26.5 12.2 1970 273.1 43.1 15.5 1971 228.5 37.3 16.3 Source: IBRD Reports. Table 5.4: El SAIVI.01: C!T,ýAl GOVLIOIT EXPENDITUPES BY AIÆN3T:£'IVE AcE2CIS, 1965-72 (In riflljns of colones) June 1 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1971 i Teu ,- nr. 237.9 22.5 231.7 21;3.7 299.1 309.3 358.7 196.5 209.0 c et 226.3 239.5 230.1 230.3 2H.2 299.0 3L2.L 190.2 203.h 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 L.6 5.L 5.7 6.2 3.2 3.7 C2.1 2." 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2 .6 .. .1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.3 1.0 .*1 r.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 .1 >.1 C.1 ny General 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 01. P rcy 3.9 4.6 b.7 5.6 5.0 7.7 8.8 .5 5.7 I.6 15.7 13.9 1l.1 13.7 16.0 13.9 7.6 16.7 70 n Arfairs L.3 L.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.0 3.7 3.3 ln ri. 6.9 7.2 6.1 5.7 5.8 8.0 9.5 5.3 4.6 Mene- 25.2 25.5 25.9 25.4 28.2 27.4 33.0 17.3 19.7 Jus Lieý .0 b.3 h.3 4.7 4.5 h.9 6.9 4.7 3.7 Ed.ic aIA on 54.7 57.4 57.h 62.6 66.8 74.9 108.2 57.4 52.7 Pub2lic Health 2h.6 29.6 32.2 35.6 38.1 38.7 41.9 23.0 21.9 Labor 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.3 1.7 1.9 ilcor:om,y-, Th.0 i11.ý 13.3 7-2 6.5 14.6 11.2 4.9 6.3 Agricultle 21.2 18.0 12.9 11.7 12.8 16.6 22.0 10.9 10.7 Public Works 25.3 26.0 23.3 19.2 27.1 34.1 44.8 26.4 28.9 Poo' Pcoole Wlfare 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1 0.6 1.1 1a n c isin1.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 4.2 5.2 3.4 2.7 the- ob1a:ations 12.1 13.0 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 8.2 8.7 Contributinns to international orlanJ zations - 3.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 1.b 1.0 Soci'l Security contributions - 2.4 - 0.6 - 13.0 1.4 - - Ei.,ercncy - - - - 41.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 - other 2.6 5.9 Special funds (cxtraordinary tueg ts) 11.6 3.0 1.6 13.4 10.9 10.3 10.3 6.3 5.6 Source: Ministry of Finance and Central Reserve Bank. Table 5.5: EL SALVADOR : PUBLIC INVES'1ENT, 1965-1972 (In millions of colones) Est. Sector and Category 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 TOTAL 90.8 97.6 83.9 71.3 89.6 87.8 111.6 136.2 DIRECT INVESTIMTT 67.7 79.L 60.8 49.7 63.8 62.6 81.2 105., I. Agriculture 1.2 5.2 3.2 3.2 5.4 6.1 10.1 5.4 II. Industry, tourism and Commerce 1.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 3.3 6.5 7.1 III. Power 16.0 8.9 4.6 10.6 124.1 6.6 2.8 14.3 IV. Transpor-tatien 1/ 15.0 13.4 11.2 15.0 19.6 24.3 25.1 2E.2 V. Conunications 8.0 - 14.5 6.9 0.6 - 0.4 5.2 7. VI., iater and Sewerage 5.1 E.2t 8.9 3.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 L..0 VII. Housing 11.6 8.0 8.9 .9 8.L 4.5 3.2 3.6 VIII. EJucation 2/ 5.1 9.1 24.8 .1 4.0 5.0 7.9 2C.0 IX. Heath / ~ 1.6 4.3 L.9 4.5 4.5 3.9 5.8 6.5 X. 1iscellaneous l/ 2.4 7.2 6.6 2.6 5.2 5.7 12.0 E.c CREDIT IIN~S 23.1 18.2 23.1 21.6 25.é 25.2 29.l 3v. Agriculture 10.9 k .5 9.4 11.6 12.2 11.0 13.5 1L.7 Industry 9.9 10.0 9.9 7.8 7.2 9.2 11.E 11.7 HCuSJ-g 2.3 3.7 3.8 2.2 6.4 5.0 L4.1 . 1/ Includes 67 percent of investnents by Direccion General de Urbanismo y arquitectura (DUA) and 1C percent of investments by Fomento y Cooperacion Conunal (FCCCO). For 1970 the percentaces esti-mated were 70 percent 'and 20 percent respectively. 2/ IncIudes about EO perccnt of investrents by FOCCO. / Inc2udes Instituto Salvc.doreno del SeCuro Social (ISSS) L/ Invetent in wunicpa works is the 1arest iter in this category. lnc]udes also 10 pcrcent of FCCCO in 1965-1969 and 30 percent in 1970. Scu-:-cc: Injkc:-T?- tde_'-c:_e,c e I_creg Publica. CTAPIAN. Issues Enerc- ic6"b.e 19 , i iC Enc 15-1, a::c un.iched d for 1970. F. MONEY AND BANKING Table 6.1 EL SALVADOR: SUMMARY ACODUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1964-71 (In millions of colones) End of Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 International reserves, net 102.1 127.5 99.0 92.4 105.9 93.5 131.1 131.0 Fore'rn .zs.ts 1T= Ti.6 W7 157 1680-9 IMT I'FT .et 1-7 position 12.5 15.6 -34.4 - 34.3 - 41.8 - 35.0 - 16.2 - 25.5 Short-tern liabilities - U4.1 - 29.7 - 22.9 - 24.9 - 21.1 - 23.0 - 32.6 - 20.3 Donestic credit 479.6 480.9 558.8 575.3 594.7 685.0 688.5 750.9 Credit to Central Government, net - 6.7 - 19.6 - 7.4 1.6 12.9 41.1 30.4 49.9 Cr:dit ( 16.2) ( 19.3 ( 14.3) ( 18.3 ( 36.8) ( 59.6) ( 52.7) ( 70.3) Drpoci ts (- 22.9) (- 38.9) (- 21.7) (- 16.7) (- 23.9) (- 18.5) (- a2.3) ( 20.4) Credit to official entities, net 43.3 38.4 52.0 52.3 54.3 54.4 47.5 42.1 Cr2dit ( 55.3) ( 56.5) ( 64.1) ( 64.0) ( 71.2) ( 72.0) ( 69.2) ( 71.3) po~s its (- 12.0) (- 18.1) ( 12.1) (- 11.7) (- 16.9) (- 17.6) C- 21.7) ( 29.2) Bond Stab'lization Fund 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5. Crcdit to private sector 399.8 14-26.0 476.4 487.5 499.2 566.9 602.4 679.9 Subscriptions to nonmonetary internal agencies 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.0 12.7 11.7 11.9 13.0 Official capital and reserves - 24.2 - 26.4 - 29.7 - 34.6 - 39.1 - 45.8 - 51.3 - 59.7 Allocation of SDR's -- -- -- -- -- -- - 10.5 - 19.9 Unclassified assets, net 52.1 44.5 47.6 48.2 49.4 51.4 52.8 4o.4 Assets = liabilities 581.7 608.4 647.8 667.7 700.6 778.5 819.6 881.9 Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 28.9 37.6 44.6 41.5 49.3 68.5 66.3 64.9 Liabilities to private sector 552.8 570.8 613.2 626.2 651.3 710.0 752.8 817.0 Currency in circulation 116.7 111.9 115.1 122.2 116.4 133.5 136.1 145.2 Sight deposits 116.8 122.4 131.9 130.4 148.3 154.7 159.2 170.2 Ti:e and savings deposits 186.6 202.2 229.6 234.3 243.4 272.1 299.0 342.2 Foreign currency deposits 3.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 Yortgage bonds 82.5 84.0 84.4 84.9 88.2 91.1 99.3 97.6 Capital and reserves 47.2 48.2 50.3 52.5 53.6 57.0 58.0 61.2 Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 6.2 EL SALVADOR: SUM0ARY ACCOUNTS OF THE COKMCIAL AND MORTGA1E BANKS, 1964-71 (In millions of colones) End of Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 International reserves, nnt - 30.8 - 12.4 - 7.0 - 8.5 - 6.2 1. - 6.7 0.9 Foreign a:ct3 12.7 16.5 14.1 14.7 13.9 10.7 23.0 18.9 Short-tenn liabilities - 43.5 - 28.9 - 21.1 - 23.2 - 29.1 - 9.3 - 29.7 - 18.0 R2: rve de7osits and currency holdings 63.6 87.2 92.0 127.6 113.9 153.6 163.2 176.9 -irrency I a. 12.Z T1 17 -1217T TI Deposits h9.6 74.6 78.6 115.2 130.2 138.2 146.4 162.6 D:.estic credit 138.3 451.1 480.5 492.0 497.8 5h9.7 589.6 630.6 Central Government, net 1.9 - 2.1 - 1.7 - 0.5 - 1.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 - 0.8 Credit 22) ( 2.) ( 2.6) D-3Oits (- 1.7) (- 0.5) (- 1.6) (- 2.0) (- 2) - 3.) Credit to official entities, net 5.8 0.7 2.8 3.0 0.2 - 0.2 - 2.4 - 3.8 Credit ( 5.8) ( 5.6) ( 5.4) ( 5.7) ( 5.6) ( 4.9) ( 4.2) ( 4.7) Deposits ( -- ) (- 4.9) (- 2.6) (- 2.7) (- 5.h) (- 5.4) (- 6.6) (- 8.5) Credit to private sector 396.3 420.5 451.3 461.o 468.2 519.3 558.8 615.0 Unclassified ascets, net 38.1 32.0 28.1 28.5 31.0 30.2 33.0 20.2 5ts 5.liabilities 56. 6u.1 635.5 704.7 746.1 808.4 Liabilities to Central Resrve Bank 36.4 65.4 64.8 103.9 100.6 126.3 125.1 139.8 Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) -- 2.5 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.4 6.7 -- Liabilities to private sector 434.7 458.0 495.7 502.3 530.3 574.0 614.3 668.6 Sight deposits 115.4 121.5 129.5 128.7 143.7 152.2 156.9 167.1 Ti .e and savings deposits 186.6 202.2 229.6 234.3 243.4 272.1 299.0 342.2 Forein currency deposits 3.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 mortgage bonds 82.5 84.0 84.4 84.9 88.2 91.1 99.2 97.5 Capital and reserves h7.2 48.2 50.3 52.5 53.6 57.0 58.0 61.2 Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 6.3: EL SALVADOR: SUMAff ACCOUNTS OF THE CENTRAL RESERVE BANK, 1964-71 (In millions of colones) Jbd of Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Internationl reserves, net 132.9 139.9 106.0 100.9 112.1 92.1 137.2 130.0 Forcir'n sssets 121.0 125.1 142.2 .1369 19.9 10.8 1.9 157.9 Hold 30 of SD.s - - - - - - - - E'et IF Position 12.5 15.6 - 34.4 - 34.3 - 41.8 - 35.0 - 16.2 - 25.5 Short-term liabilities - 0.6 - 0.8 - 1.8 - 1.7 - 1.0 - 13.7 - 2.9 - 2.4 D,r-.estic credit 77.7 95.2 143.1 187.2 197.5 261.6 224.0 260.1 Credit to Central Government, net - .8 - 17.5 - 5.7 - 2.1 14.5 40.7 30.3 50.7 Credit ( 16.2) ( 19.3) ( 143) 18.3) ( 36.8) ( 57.2 3 ( 67.7) Doncit (-21.0) (-36.8), (-20.0) (-16.2) (-22.3) (-16.:5 ( 20.0) ( 17.0) Credit to official entities, net 37.5 37.7 49.2 49.3 54.1 56.6 50.3 45.8 From foreign resources ( 20.4) ( 22.3) ( 21.4) ( 20.6) ( 21.4) C 19.1) ( 19.0) ( 17.3) Frzm domestic resources ( 29.1) ( 28.6) ( 37.3) ( 37.7) ( 44.2) ( 48.0) ( 46.4) ( 49.2) L:noits (- 12.0) (-13.2) (- 9.5) (- 9.0) (-11.5) (-12.5) (-15.1) (-20.7) Bond Stabilisation Fund 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Credit to coriercial & mortgage baks 36.4 65.4 64.8 103.9 100.6 126.3 125.1 139.8 From foreign resources ( 6.9) ( 8.7) ( 7.6) ( 5.6) ( 5.5) ( 4,3) ( 3.8) ( 2.3) From domestic resources ( 29.5) ( 56.7) ( 57.2) ( 98.3) ( 95.1) ( 122.0) ( 121.4) ( 137.5) Credit to private sector 3.5 5.5 25.1 26.5 31.0 47.6 43.6 64.9 From foreign resources ( 2.7) ( 3.7) ( 4.8) ( 4.9) ( 4.8) ( 4.5) ( 4.6) ( 6.0) From domestic resources ( 0.8) ( 1.8) ( 20.3) ( 21.6) ( 26.2) ( 43.1) ( 39.0) ( 58.9) Subscription to nonmonetary international agencies, net 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.0 12.7 11.7 11.9 13.0 Official capital and reserves - 24.2 - 26.4 - 29.7 - 3L.6 - 39.1 - 45.8 - 51.9 - 59.7 Allocat4on of SDRs - - - - - - - 10.5 - 19.9 Unclassified assets, net 14.0 12.5 19.5 19.7 18.I. 21.2 19.9 20.3 Assets =liabilities 210.6 235.1 249.1 288.1 309.6 353.7 361.8 390.1 Foreign liabilities (medum & long-term) 28.9 35.1 39.6 36.6 44.7 64.1 60.1 6.9 Liabilities to con.mercial and mortgage baks 63.6 87.2 92.0 127.6 143.9 153.6 163.3 176.9 Liabilities to private sector 118.1 112.8 117.5 123.9 121.0 136.0 138.4 148.3 Currency in curculation 116.7 111.9 117 122.2 1. 133.7 13.1 1l5.2 Sight deposits 1.4 0.9 2.4 1.7 4.6 2.5 2.3 3.1 Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 6.4 : EL SALVADOR: ORIGIN, DESTINATION, AND FINANCING OF BANK CREDIT, 1962-72 (In millions of colones) End of Period Est. 1961 1965 1966 1967 - 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Total Bank Credit 79.6 80.9 558.8 575.3 594.7 68 .0 688.5 750.9 830.5 Contral Reserve Bank 1 77.7 95.2 143.1 187.2 197.5 261.6 224.0 260.1 289.4 of which, to banks (36.1) (65.) (64.8) (103.9) (100.6) (126.3) (125.1) (139.8) (144.8) Commercial and mortgage banks with own resources 101.9 385.7 115.7 388.1 397.2 423.4 46.5 l90.8 541.1 Fetination Central Government, net - 6.7 - 19.6 - 7.4 1.6 12.9 11.1 30.1 h9.9 78.6 Rest of public sector, not 43.3 38.h 52.0 52.3 54.3 54.4 47.5 h2.1 17.7 Bond Stabilization Fund 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Private sector 399.8 426.0 176.1 487.5 499.2 566.9 602.4 679.9 749.8 International organizations, net 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.0 12.7 11.7 11.9 13.0 Allocation of SDRs -- -- -- -- -- -- - 10.5 - 19.9 - 29.1 Official capital and reserves - 2h.2 - 26.h -29.7 - 3h.6 - 39.1 - 165.8 - 51.3 - 59.7 - 67.6 Unclassified aosets, net 52.1 14.5 47.6 18.2 49.4 51.1 52.8 10. 51.1 Financing Foreign liabilities (mediun- and long-term) 28.9 37.6 11.6 11.5 19.3 68.5 66.8 64.9 64.9 Liabilities to private sector U 552.8 570.8 613.2 626.2 651.3 710.0 752.8 817.0 885.1 International reserves, net -102.1 -127.5 - 99.0 - 92.h -105.9 - 93.5 -131.1 -131.0 -119.5 1 Includes rediscount to the rest of the banking system. 2 Money, quasi-money, private capital, and reserves. Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 6.5: EL SALVADOR: COM-MERCIAL A17D MORTGAGE LOANS Tc, PRIVATE SECTOR BY DESTINATION, 1967-72 (In millions of colones) Outstanding at end of period Est. 1967 1966 1969 1970 1971 1972 Total Outstanding to private sector i/ 457.3 L6. 514.6 553.9 610.0 668.8 Agriculture and livestock 127.6 133.1 1L3.6 147.9 167.6 183.8 Coffee 50.9 37.7 45.7 53.9 65.2 71.5 Cotton 25.0 32.5 36.2 35.6 0.4 "14.3 Other crops 53.7 52.9 49.5 44.8 46.2 50.6 Livestock 8_.0 10.0 12.2 13.6 15.8 17.3 Industry 61.3 64.6 65.3 65.5 68.3 75.0 Construction 62.1 72.0 77.4 82.2 87.5 95.9 Unclassified credit 41.0 30.8 50.5 54.0 63.7 69.9 I/ Bonds excluded. 2/ Includes creidt for financing of inventories for emergency relief to enterprises affected by the conflict with Honduras, overdrafts, refinancing, and credit to other sectors. Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 6.6 : EL SALVADOR: PRIVATE CLAIMS ON THE BANKING SYSTEM BY COMPOSITION AND INSTITUTIONAL DISTRIBUTION, 1964-71 End of Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 (In millions of colones) glatns on the banking system 505.6 522.6 562.9 573.7 597.7 653.0 694.8 755.8 C=or0sit-_-n Lan:y 233.5 234.3 247.0 252.6 264.7 288.2 295.3 315.4 Currency in curculation 116.7 111.9 115.1 122.2 11.T 133.5 136.1 145.2 Sight deposits 116.8 122.4 131.9 130.4 148.3 154.7 159.2 170.2 Quasi-noney 272.1 288.3 315.9 321.1 333.0 364.8 399.5 44o.4 Time and savings deposits 186.6 202.2 229.6 234.3 243.4 272.1 299.0- .342.2 Foreign currency deposits 3.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 1ortrn7e bonds 82.5 84.4 81.4 84.9 88.2 91.1 99.3 97.6 Institutional disbribution Central Reorve Pank 181.7 200.0 209.5 251.5 264.9 289.6 301.7 325.2 Private sector claims 118.1 112.8 117.5 123.9 121.0 136.0 138.4 148.3 Banks reserve deposits 63.6 87.2 92.0 127.6 143.9 153.6 163.3 176.9 Gomercial and morgage banks 323.9 322.6 353.4 322.2 332.8 363.4 393.1 430.6 Private sector claims 387.5 409.8 445.4 449.8 476.7 517.0 556.3 607.5 Reserve assets with the Central Reserve Bank - 63.6 - 87.2 - 92.0 -127.6 -143.9 -153.6 -163.2 -176.9 (As percentage of GNP) Claims on the banking system 27.3 26.5 26.9 26.1 26.3 27.6 27.5 28.5 Money 12.6 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.6 12.2 11.7 11.9 Currency in circulation 6.3 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.7 5.4 5.5 Sight deposits 6.3 6.2 6.3 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.4 Quasi-money 14.7 14.6 15.1 14.6 14.6 15.4 15.8 16.6 of which, time and savings deposits (10.1) (10.2) (11.0) (10.7) (10.7) (11.5) (11.8) (12.9) Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 6.7 : EL SALVADOR: LW3AL RSERVE POSITION OF THE COMMERCIAL AND MWRTAGE BANKS, 1962-72 (Value figures in millions of colones) Required Actual Month 1/ Deposits Subject Reserve Reserve Net to Reserve Required Ratio Actual Ratio Excess Requirements Reserves () Reserves () Reserves 1962 Dec. 213.8 32.1 15 34.8 16.3 2.7 1963 Dec. 265.8 39.9 15 44.5 16.7 4.6 1964 Dec. 306.8 46.0 15 49.6 16.2 3.6 1965 Dec. 330.5 66.1 20 75.2 22.8 9.1 1966 Dec. 364.1 72.8 20 79.0 21.7 6.2 1967 Dec. 364.5 103 30 114.8 31.5 5.5 1968 March 384.3 115. 30 121.7 31.7 6.4 June 396.3 118.9 30 121.9 30.8 3.0 Sept. 390.6 117.2 30 123.1 31.5 5.9 Dec. 391.9 117.6 30 130.1 33.2 12.5 1969 March 424.2 127.3 30 130.5 30.8 3.2 June 416.9 125.1 30 133.0 31.9 7.9 Sept. 399.9 120.0 30 122.6 30.7 2.6 Dec. 423.9 127.2 30 138.0 32.6 10.8 1970 March 444.9 133.5 30 126.7 28.5 - 6.8 June 468.5 140.6 30 155.8 33.3 15.2 Sept. 457.7 137.3 30 135.9 29.7 - 1.4 Dec. 462.6 138.8 30 144.9 31.3 6.1 1971 March 478.3 143.5 30 143.9 30.1 0.4 June 498.6 149.6 30 160.5 32.2 10.9 Sept. 473.4 142.0 30 146.8 31.0 4.8 Dec. 506.3 151.9 30 162.6 32.1 10.7 1972, Est. March 531.7 159.5 30 172.0 32.3 12.5 June 521.0 156.3 30 184.2 35.5 27.9 Sept. 585.8 175.7, 30 Dec. 608.3 182.5 30 1/ Average of the last week of the month. Sourcc: Central Reserve Bank. VII. AGRICULTURE Table 7.1: EL SALVADOR: NUMBMR AND SIZE OF FARM UNITS, 1961 AND 1970 Farm Units Area Size class Percent Percent Median Size N'-iber of tctal Total (hectares) of total (hectares) 1961 1970 1961 1970 1961 1970 1961 1970 1961 1970 TOTAL 226,896 286,293 100.0 100.0 1,581,428 1,616,924 100.0 100.0 6.96 7.13 Less than 1 hectare 107,054 151,059 47.2 52.8 61,365 93,578 3.9 5.8 0.57 0.87 1-9.9 hectares 100,245 115,639 44.2 40.4 284,804 303,258 18.0 18.8 2.84 3.02. 10-49.9 hectares 1.235 15,235 6.7 5.3 326,054 323.714 20.6 20.0 21.4o 21.20 50-199.9 hectares 3,335 3,335 1.5 1.2 313.202 318,885 19.8 19.7 93.91 95.60 200 and more hectares 1,027 1,027 0.5 0.3 596,002 577,489 37.7 35.7 580.33 562.30 Sources: Data from the Censo Agropecuario, as sitnarized by Grupo de Tenencia de la Tierra, CIDA/CAIS. El Salvador: Caractcristicas Goncrales de la Utilizaci6n y Distrituci6n de la Tierra. Mexico, D.P., August 15, 1968. Unpublished Censo Agropecuario, 1970. Table 7.2.: EL SALVADOR: VALUE ADDED BY MAJOR COMPONENTS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN SELECTED YEARS, 1950-71 (In thousands of colones, at current prices) Item 1950 1955 1957 1960 1963 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971- Crops 292,467 426,601 430,126 315,467 387,755 422,941 445,137 442,892 437,784 550,591 547,100 LIvestock 64,065 68,451 68,112 70,293 69,425 78,043 86,613 89,075 92,398 95,377 97,400 Forestry 11,432 13,174 14,043 15,403 16,585 17,79B 18,091 18,865 21,341 23,529 23,500 Agriculture 223 429 740 710 1,169 7- 597 774 679 658 700 Fishing - - 10,010 12,424 12,219 10,681 12,473 15,275 15,656 17,300 Poultry 25,32S 38,496 L461 438,648 39,643 39,033 401000 TOTAL 393,512 549,408 551,517 449,267 522,819 573,892 599,869 602,727 607,120 724,844 726,000 Total as % of PTB 42.7 42.2 39.3 31.6 30.9 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.5 28.4 27.1 1/ Preliminary estimates. Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 7. 3: EL SALVADOR: VALUE OF PRODUCTIO06 L AMRICULTURE AND RELAT1D SECTORS, 1963-TI 1963 1964 1965 1966 15 7 1968 196, 1970 1971 (In millions of colones at ct!rnat prices) Crop agriculture 455.2 513.2 519.5 4 5 5(?.8 498. 6.1 618.4 Mainly export crops 528.3 389.U 58.9 552.7 545.0 3-.7 332 '.9 416-9 Cotton 124.2 151.5 109.3 64.2 57.3 57.0 67.6 4 83.8 Coffee 186.4 237.3 251.7 244.6 260.8 245.5 242.6 - > 297.3 Sugar 17.7 20.2 27.9 23.9 24.9 26.2 22.1 35.8 Mainly domestic crops 126.9 124.2 150.6 155.0 161.7 174.1 166.2 192. 201.5 Corn 39.4 58.0 38.6 38.6 58.0 48.2 49.5 55.1 54.2 Beans 9.5 6.0 7.3 7.4 9.7 10.6 13.5 21.0 20.9 Sorghum 17.6 16.4 19,7 15.2 16.9 21.2 19.7 26.4 24.6 Rice 7.6 10.1 10.2 16.0 25.5 22.2 9.7 13.0 16.3 Other 52.8 55.7 54.8 75.8 73.8 71.9 7 58 76.3 85.5 Livestock 114.7 114.3 119.4 153.1 141.9 144.6 151.8 150.2 . Forestry 16.6 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.1 18.9 21.3 23.5 -5.5 Fishing 15.7 11.6 8.7 13.7 12.2 14,0 16.8 17.3 Gross value of production 600.1 655.4 664.7 650.3 676.9 680.4 688.4 807.1 818.4 Inputs 8578.7 85.1 76-4 76.9 77.6 81.4 82.2 c,.4 Imported materials 31.6 51.5 37.1 41.8 48.3 44.0 43.5 39.9 42.5 Other goods and services 45.7 54.2 48.0 34.6 28.6 33.6 37.9 42.3 49.9 Net value of production 522.8 569.7 579.6 5 600.0 602.7 607.1 T24.8 726. Sales 600.1 655.4 64. 676.9 680.4 688.4 807.1 818.4 Exports 303.3 465 362.8 322.8 330.5 307.8 304.0 360.1 Sales to manufacturing sector 107.0 117.0 126.9) Other sales 189.8 191.9 175.0) 327.5 346.4 372.6 384.4 (As percentage of gross value of production) Crops 75.9 7 - 1 7.7 74.6 73-9 72.4 76. Z5.6 Mainly export crops 54.7 59.5 58.5 51.2 50.7 48.3 48.3 52.5 51.0 Mainly domestic crops 21.1 18.9 19.6 25.3 23.9 25.6 24.1 23.8 24.6 Livestock 19.1 17.4 18.0 20.5 21.0 21.2 22.1 18.7 19.2 Forestry 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.9 Fishing 2.3 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 Inputs 12.9 13.1 12.8 11.7 11.4 11.4 10.8 10.2 11.3 Imported materials 5.3 7.8 5.6 6.4 7.1 6.5 6.5 4.9 5.2 Other goods and services 7.6 5.3 7.2 5.3 4.2 4.9 4.5 5.3 6.1 Net value of production 87.1 86.9 8 2 88.6 88.6 89. 89.8 L5.7 Sales 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Exports 50.5 52.9 54.6 4 48.8 45.2 44.2 44.6 n.a. Sales to manufacturing sector 17.8 17.8 19.1) Other sales 31.6 29.3 26.3) 50.4 51.2 54.8 55.8 55.4 n.a. Source: Central Reserve Bank. Table 7.4: EL SALVADOR: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND YELDS, 1950-71 (Production in thousands of quintals; area in thousands of manzanas; and yields in quintals per ranzana) 1/ 19501/ 19552/ 1960k' 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970al 1971-Y I. Production Cotton 135.0 671.0 912.0 1,663.1 1,803.6 1,531.5 1,039.1 845.5 824.2 1,032.9 1,200.0 1,506.0 Corn 4,410.0 4,642.0 5,105.0 5,124.3 4,540.8 4,606.1 5,780.0 4,505.0 5,598.9 6,055.6 7,893.5 8,200.0 Beans 579.0 511.0 436.0 474.8 323.9 394.5 341.4 393.3 458.0 569.0 650.0 750.0 Rice 441.0 345.0 382.0 596.3 852.2 858.2 1,187.6 1,833.3 1,875.0 840.3 626.1 776.1 Sorghum 2,058.0 2,413.0 2,735.0 2,631.5 2,162.6 2,439.9 2,493.0 2,350.0 2,700.2 2,784.1 3,200.0 3,400.0 II. Area Cultivated Cotton 27.2 65.8 82.9 145.5 171.9 137.2 109.4 67.8 65.8 81.6 85.1 104.5 Corn 167.3 276.0 308.9 270.1 251.4 284.8 296.6 270.9 285.4 276.8 294.4 300.6 Beans 55.8 40.0 42.9 47.4 34.3 35.6 38.1 42.9 45.3 45.9 51.6 57.1 Rice 20.0 17.2 17.2 14.0 22.1 19.3 28.2 40.0 39.0 15.3 17.0 20.9 Sorghum 117.3 144.4 167.3 157.7 136.2 165.8 153.7 148.4 162.5 162.6 177.6 180.2 III. Yields Cotton 5.0 10.2 11.0 11.4 10.5 11.2 9.5 12.5 12.5 12.7 14.1 14.4 Corn 26.4 16.8 16.5 19.0 18.1 16.2 19.5 16.6 19.6 21.9 26.8 27.3 Beans 10.4 12.8 10.2 10.0 9.4 11.1 9.0 9.2 10.1 12.4 12.6 13.1 Rice 22.1 20.1 22.2 42.6 38.5 44.4 42.1 45.8 48.1 54.9 36.8 37.1 Sorghum 17.5 16.7 16.3 16.7 15.9 14.7 16.2 15.8 16.6 17.1 18.0 18.9 1/ 1.0 manzana = 0.699 hectare. 2/ Crop year 1950/51. 3/ Crop year 1955/56. 4/ Crcp year 1960/61. 5/ Crop year 1970/71. 6/ Crop year 1971/72. Source: Central Reserve Bank and "Indicadores Economico:; y Sociales", CONAPLAN. Table 7:5: El SALVADOR: CoPFEE STATISTICS, 1963-1972 (Production and sale in thousands of 60-kg. bags; picee in colones per 60-kg. bag) Crop Yeare 1977f 1571/722 .L-k$À!- ..2k Ê..~.)? LZÉ::--12 /69 11-69/70 17 _1 1/ 1 F:o6cticn 2,027.3 1,930.3 1,62.2 1,997.7 2,370.0 1,925.0 2,.50.0 1,950.0 2,650.0 ICo quota 1/ 1,6EL.5 1,561.l 1,h60.7 1,318.0 1,613.0 1,560.0 1,728 .0 1,605.7 2,097.6 : t 1717. ;,(2.7 196.0 2 19F-2.9 1. . 1 672. 9 1. 2,7_.6 Ioa rrket3 1, 6.5 1,561.k 1,5/3.2 2,09E.6 1,627.7 1,559.5 1,727.8 1,6dj.7 2,097.6 (thrr 32.5 41.3 22.E 18.9 355.2 259.3 145.1 8.7 60.0 Dcmn2tc ccnsurption 11l.3 136.6 12.6 155.h 1h5.8 147.5 150.0 152.0 160.0 Chnr,es in inventories 169.0 191.0 -56.4 -275.2 236.2 -41.3 429.9 18".6 312., Inventories at end of year 508.8 699.8 643.4 368.2 60.4 563.1 993.0 1,177.6 1,490.0 Calendar Year 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 2 Pri ce - (c:po t-rached) (m 6C re.) 153.75 15.95 136.20 122.25 12.95 126.07 167.45 111.10 139.36 3/ ers tn tesic cu<da 1,576.6, 'aiverz 300.0, and Others 221.0 L/ !.mP' ?riceu f.o.b. for cD3rne.ar year Srirce?: Co-Tnra Sa]výc1orena del Cafe. and Central Reserve Bank. Table 7.6: El SA1VArCRs COFFEE PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS PROJECTIONS, 1971-1978 Prel. Projected Crop Years 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 157L/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 Production ('000 60 kg. bags) 2,650 1,970 2,783 1,900 2,922 2,010 3,068 100 q"o0.. 1/ ('000 60 kg. bags) 2,097.6 Other exports ('000 60 kg. bags) 80.0 Total exDorts ('000 60 kg. bags) 2,177.6 2,100. 2,150. 2,200. 2,250. 2,300. 2,350. Domestic consumption ('000 60 kg. bags) 160 161 166 167 170 173 176 Changes in inventories +312.4 -291 +h69 -377 +502 -463 +5b2 Stocks at end of year ('000 60 kg. bags) 1,490 1,199 1,668 1,291 1,793 1,330 1,872 Calendar Years 1972 1973 197h 1975 1976 1977 1978 Exmorts Quantity ('000 qq.) 2.723 2,772 2,838 2,90L 2,970 3,036 3,102 ('OOO 60 kg. bags) 2.06 2.1 2.15 2.2 2.25 2.30 2.35 Price f.o.b. ($ per qq.) U1.L 50 52 52 51 51 51 Value ( millicn) 120.9 13'.6 147.6 151.0 151.5 15L.E 15'.2 (0 2illon) 302.3 3146.5 359.0 377.5 37K*F 37.0 395.0 1/ Refers to: Basic quota 1,576.6 Wivers 300.0 Others 221 .0 2,097-T Sources: Ccmpania SalvaCorena del Cafe; Central ieserve Bank, and IBRL Staff Estimates. T 77; El. SALVADOR - COTTMN PR0DUCTION AND EXPORTS, Actual Prel. Projected Crcp Years 19'9/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 55 (C00 h:.) 5.2 62.1 73.1 93.3 ,6.0 79.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 Yir>l (<:. Jin: cotten 820.0 930.0 936.1 c0h.1 850.0 930.0 1,000.0 1,020.0 1,Ob0.0 Prc'ior: ('CC beles) 199.5 2t0.1 301.2 330.0 322.0 323.0 33b.0 3b1.0 3Ll.0 Dr:·,:Lic conomoioncr ('DC0 ba2cs) b8.o 17.6 55.7 55.0 55.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 Exporu-'3>e production: ('CcC Loc) 151.4 192.5 245.5 275.0 267.0 266.0 275.0 280.0 205-0 ('éco go.) 757.0 951.5 1,227.5 1,375.0 1,335.0 1,330.0 1,375.0 1,b00.0 1,b25.0 Clen Yjs 1970 1971 1972 1973 197h 1975 1976 1977 1976 Expo:ts ni- ('IC0 L-es) I 7 191 211? 277 265 265 277 262 287 ('cc0 i..) 737.0 969.9 1,2h5 1,365 1,325 1,325 1,385 1,b10 1,435 Price f.o.b. (4 r cg.) 21 30 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 Vaiue ( n lJ2i en) 25.0 31.0 36.1 37.h 3b.5 33.1 34.6 35.3 35.9 (¢ niljn) 62.5 77.5 90.3 93.5 C6.3 62.8 86.5 66.3 69.6 Sources: Coope ative A.godonera Salvadorena, and IBRD Staff Estimates. Table 7. 8 EL SALVADOR: IMPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL INPUTS, 1965-71 L,T196 1969 1970 1971 Preliminary VTlue Value Value Value Value Category Quantity (000 Quintitv (000 Quantity ('000 Quantity (.000 Quantity (.000 (MT.) coones) (M.T.) colones) (M.T.) colones) (M.T.) colones) (M.T.) colones) F,.rtilizers (:1) 125,459 19,74- 14'.997 20.456 1'9,379 25,812 233,971 25,717 234.308 25,754 l,sticides and Disinfectants (599-02) 7,720 16,0V1 5,319 9,961 3,040 4,401 3,423 5,329 3,185 4,959 A,ricultura! Machinery (712) P70 2,907 637 569 519 1,929 634 2,049 756 2,443 'rraCtors A 775 2.003 427 1,744 335 1,533 655 2,757 887 3,737 furdl Utility Vehicles (12-01-01) 37 1,515 134 563 237 958 416 1,644 346 1,367 Agricultural H!and Tools (199-12-01) 217 -F1 -"" 172 90 153 129 227 145 256 vcterfnary Xedicirns (--69-07) 00 5,9 90 632 121 916 96 790 152 1,252 .ds for PlantitA ':7-%-u3 210 75 194 146 265 170 222 154 201 Source: Anuarios Estadi::tc Table 7.9: EL SALVADOR: VALUE OF FOOD IMPORTS AND PERCENT OF TOTAL FOOD CONSUMPTION AND TOTAL IMPORTS, 1960-71 (In thousands of colones) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Prel. 1971 Prel. Food Products 432090 40.740 53.482 5 6352 6 7 68.316 7 6 6 Live animals 5,414 4,695 6,241 6,489 6.,059 4,214 3,797 3,113 3,558 1,737 2,502 2,067 Meat and meat products 896 927 972 1,009 941 1,066 1,437 1,598 2,337 2,438 2,016 2,056 Mill products 6,431 6,606 8,115 9,214 9,653 .10,053 12,745 11,408 12,065 10,562 11,834 13,602 Fish and fish products 885 765 1.272 1,260 1,752 1,413 1,243 1,194 1,021 901 916 1,319 Wheat 2,071 5,601 5,901 7,987 7,810 8,846 8,071 10,518 8,573 10,582 9,306 11,326 Wheat flour 6,528 1,965 2,070 897 345 300 86 159 288 221 335 381 Corn 3,132 1,610 7,269 5,175 8,357 13,681 12,090 3,311 9,054 2,051 22 32 Other cereal and cereal products 3,044 2,181 3,130 3,137 2,818 1. Ct 5,390 3,900 4,195 3,484 4,663 6,944 Fruit and fruit products 3,186 3,183 3,154 4,148 5,219 4, 69 6,447 6,664 7,157 6,404 5,892 4,659 Beans, potatoes, and other vegetables 5,624 7,325 8,841 9,104 10,596 9,992 9,109 10,946 13,332 11,194 9,642 5,095 Sugar and sugar products 805 869 1,363 2,518 3,612 2,921 3,195 3,698 3,894 3,549 4,108 3,490 Other 5,072 5,013 5,154 6,403 6,430 7,913 10,435 11,736 10,588 13,549 10,021 13,414 Total food imports as: a) percent of total food consumption n.a. 15,1 17.2 19.8 21.8 22jI 21.7 19.9 20.5 b) percent of total imports 14.1 15.0 17.1 15.2 13.3 13. 13.6 12.2 2 10.4 Source: t'±,01tr Central ite8erve !,ak G. OTHER SEC'ORS Table 1.1: EL SALVADOR: VALUE ADDED IN MANUFACTURING BY MAJOR INDUSTRIAL BRANCHES, 1958-71 (In millions of colones at current prices) 1958 19E9 1910 1961 1962 19`3 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 19711/ rood 74.2 75.3 17 5.7 92. 91.' 97.6 115.5 116.5 122.1 137.3 133.4 139.0 142.8 Beverages 23.4 27.2 29.0 2 .1 30.3 32.4 35.2 - .4 43.8 42.6 42.6 46.4 50.3 52.1 Tobacco 11.1 10.2 11.9 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.8 16.4 16.5 16.4 15.2 16.0 16,7 16.5 Textiles 9.9 10. 14. 16. 9 .20. 24.6 29.0 30.3 39.2 39.4 45.7 54.8 63.5 72.2 Clothing and footwear 31.1 2. 5 29. 35.1 53.3 5 .1 45.3 50.4 54.4 63.7 61.7 60.o 51.3 50.0 Wood products 1.4 1.3 1. 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 rurniture and tixtures 1.6 1., 2.' -.5 2.7 4.9 5.4 4.1 5.2 5.2 6.3 9.1 10.5 11.3 Paper and paper products 0.4 0.5 0,4 1.7 1.1 3.4 4.5 3.6 2.3 3.1 5.0 5.9 7.5 7.7 Printing and publishing 3.4 . 4.0 4.F 4.7 6.2 6.3 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.2 Leather and products 2. 1 66 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.8 4.1 Rubber products 0.8 0 9 1.2 1 2.3 2.4 2,F 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.6 3.7 3.3 3.6 Chemicals .0 5.9 9 10.' 11.9 15.3 16.7 27.9 28.6 29.4 35.1 37.2 43.3 Petrochemical products - - - 6.7 11.5 22.7 18.5 22.7 23.1 19.8 20.2 26.3 Non-metallic mineral manufactures 7.9 6.4 F.7 7.7 6.5 8.3 10.1 12.8 18.8 17.5 16.5 16.1 16.6 17.0 Basic metal industries 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 ?.0 2.7 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.5 5.2 Metal manufactures 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.7 5.1 5.4 3.7 6.1 5.9 5.5 10.5 7.4 6.9 7.2 Mechanical machinery 0.6 0.9 1.i 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.8 6.3 6.1 4.9 5.2 Ele?ctr'cal machincry 0.9 0.. 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 4.7 10.9 13.5 11.8 11.0 14.1 15.0 Transport equipment 5.5 4.1 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.5 6.0 4.8 6.0 9.0 6.0 7.9 7.2 7.2 Other ?.8 3.3 4.4 5.1 6.0 7.7 9.6 E.1 9.5 10.2 10.6 15.5 17.1 18.6 TOTAL 1U3.3 15.5 201. 5. 4 27 6.1 352.2 396.6 422.3 448.0 466.2 484.6 515.6 1' Preliminary. Source: Central Reserve Bark. Table 8.2: EL SALVADOR- VALUE OF OUTPUT IN MANUFACTURING BY MAJOR INDUSTIAL BRANCHES, 1958-71 (In millions of colones at current prices) 1952 1959 19.0 1961 192 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 19711- Food 202.9 201.9 217.9 220.3 240.6 250.0 273.9 312.6 312.0 330.6 348.6 344.4 362.7 385.9 Beverages 35.0 35.4 35.6 34.5 37.2 40.3 43.9 47.3 53.6 52.3 52.3 s6.1 62.9 66.9 Tobacco 17.5 16.8 1.1 20.0 21.1 21.0 22.8 23.6 23.5 22.7 22.1 22.8 24.7 26.2 Textiles 23.7 24.5 33.6 40.5 44.7 51.8 60.6 66.1 74.5 75.7 94.7 108.9 127.6 135.8 Clothing and Footwear 54.6 52.2 59.3 65.7 66.6 71.0 64.0 93.4 108.2 117.6 114.9 109.9 97.8 104.0 Wood Products 2.1 2.1 2 '. 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.4 Furniture and Fixtures 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.4 5.0 8.5 9.3 7.0 9.3 8.8 10.3 15.0 , 16.7 17.7 Paper and Paper Products 1.0 1.2 1.1 3.6 4.2 8.0 10.6 10.6 10.1 12.9 14.5 13.9 15.1 16.1 Printing and Publishing 6.6 7.3 7.6 7.7 9.2 9.1 12.0 12.3 15.4 15.3 16.1 16.2 16.2 17.2 Leather and Products 5.2 4.8 6.0 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.0 8.1 7.3 7.6 8.9 8.8 9.9 10.6 Rubber Products 1.5 1.8 2.3 3.4 4.1 4.4 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.7 6.2 7.3 6.7 7.1 Chemicals 15.1 17.3 1F.6 24.9 29.4 33.2 44.1 52.8 64.6 65.8 67.3 77.9 81.5 86.8 Petroleum and Coal Products - - - - 27.7 41.9 45.6 41.5 46.4 49.6 38.9 32.9 35.1 Non-Metalic Mineral Manufactures 14.3 13.6 14.9 13.* 13.3 16.3 18.9 21.6 29.4 28.5 26.0 24.3 26.1 27.8 Basic Metal Industries 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 5.7 7.8 10.9 13.8 13.8 15.1 16.0 Metal Manufactures 2.6 3.3 4.4 6.1 6.2 7.5 8.3 12.3 13.4 14.3 21.3 16.4 15.4 16.4 Mechanical Machinery 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.1 4.7 7.0 8.7 8.4 6.4 6.8 Electrical Appliances 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 9.4 18.8 23.8 23.0 20.3 26.6 2t.4 Transport Equipment 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.2 8.0 8.3 9.1 9.1 10.5 15.0 14.3 18.8 17.1 18.2 Other 4.1 5.0 6.6 7.7 9.0 11.6 14.6 14.0 16.7 19.0 24.2 30.2 33.7 35.9 TOTAL 398.8 397.9 443.7 473.6 513.0 584.3 675.9 764.3 830.4 884.0 940.0 955.4 998.3 1,062.3 1' Preliminary - -....... -.n . Dn**, R.nk Table 83: EL SALVADOR - CONSUMPTION OF IRON PRODUCTS USED IN CONSTRUCTION, 1960-71 (In Metric Tons) Year Production Lmports Exports Apparent Consuation 1960 n/a 11,569.7 64.0 11,505.7 1961 2,613.4 10,963.1 67.6 13,508.9 1962 n/a 9,244.0 380.3 8,863.7 1963 2,677.2 11,787.8 555.8 13,909.2 1964 4,539.1 17,o7.5 479.5 21,067.h 1965 8,501.8 18,960.9 676.4 26,786.3 1966 12,1492.7 15,751.6 2,603.0 25,641.5 1967 27,039.1 10,356.4 9,521.8 27,873.7 1968 31,401.7 4,487.1 17,366.9 18,521.9 1969 24,458.4 4,397.5 11,290.4 17,565.5 1970 21,396.7 4,374.1 9,600.1 16,170.7 1971 (Preliminary) 30,547.7 8,566.8 9,631.7 29,482.8 1970 (Preliminary) 1st Quarter 6,487.7 674.9 1,676.6 5,486.0 2nd 9,262.1 630.1 2,233.8 7,055.4 3rd " 5,056.3 1,502.4 2,708.3 3,850.4 4th 6,2554. 1,562.7 1,710.6 6,107.5 1971 (Preliminary) 1st Quarter 6,553.9 2,065.2 2,326.4 6,292.7 2nd " 7,75.2 1,331.2 2,713.7 6,357.7 3rd 7,877.4 2,839.0 2,692.9 8,023.5 4th 8,371.2 2,331.4 1,893.7 8,808.9 Note: The su,i of the quarters in 1970 and 1971 does not correspond to the total fcr the year, because of the use of different methodologies by the Planning Offico. So-rce: "I:1nicadores Econoricos y Sociales," CO'APLAN (Enero--Junio 1972) Table 8: EL SALVADOR -'CONSUMPTION OF CEMENT, 1960-71 (In Metric Tons) Year Doma3tic Imports Exports Apparent Production Consumption 1960 84,043 15,987 1,276 98,754 1961 73,283 19,498 2,804 89,977 1962 63,834 24,642 3,723 84,753 1963 76,731 39,445 5,015 11,161 1964 88,278 46,179 8,018 126,439 1965 79,177 93,206 3,355 169,028 1966 150,691 39,579 3,087 187,183 1967 159,877 36,918 13,155 183,640 1968 154,404 39,879 45,538 1W8,745 1969 141,713 49,867 48,525 143,055 1970 161,674 16,576 12,905 165,345 1971 (Preliminary) 185,770 6,329 5,437 186,662 1970 First-half 81,590 n.a. n.a. n.a. Second-half 80,084 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1971 (Preliminary) Firzt-half 95,h16 3,361 2,778 95,997 Second-half 90,356 2,968 2,659 90,665 1972 (Preliminary) First-half 113,397 urce: "Ifdicelores Eco:noidcos y Socialas", CO'APLAN (Enero-Junio 1972). Table 8. 5: EL SALVADOR: CONSTrJCTION OF URBAN DWELLINGS BY TE INSTITUTE OF URBAN HOUSING, 1960-72 Average cost Number of Dwellings per Dwelling Total Expenditure Co.pleted during year (colones) (thousands of colones) Total 14,021 5,637 7936 1960 324 9,853 3,192 1961 540 9,163 4,947 1962 500 9,068 24,534 1963 1,8i0 4,992 9,085 1964 .60 4,833 2,223 1965 3,054 6,665 31,632 1966 1,654 8,953 10,535 1967 864 7,034 6,077 1968 1,426 6,487 9,250 1969 1,391 5,156 7,172 1970 1,034 5,608 5,798 1971 208 6,577 1,368 1972 746 4,320 3,223 Source: Instituto de Vivienda Urbana. Table 8. 6 : EL SALVADOR: PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY, 1960-71 (Millions of KMh) Average household Consurntion consumption In KWh P licuse- Inrius- Conmer- Govern- Per Family Daily per YC ir '_ o t 1 l ydralic Total holds trial cial ment Other2 supplied capita 2 1950 255.6 19.2 236.4 202.7 62.2 69.1 31.0 ho.h ... ... 0.068 19> 267.4 2.4 265.o 213.0 63.2 71.1 33.2 40.5 ... ... 0.072 1512 3C0.3 1.5 293.8 263.0 71.4 87.8 54.3 49.5 ... 920 0.073 153 339.5 26.2 313.3 300.3 77.5 126.0 46.5 48.4 1.9 943 0.077 15h %379.4 h2.2 337.0 333.0 87.1 141.9 48.6 51.8 3.6 9m3 0.o8h 1535 417.5 47.3 370.2 362.3 96.9 152.7 52.2 52.1 5.4 1.005 0.091 156 477.0 67.8 409.2 hl.o 108.0 17.8 58.2 61.6 7.4 1.052 0.098 1957 531.3 97.3 434.o 456.8 121.0 192.7 6`.5 69.4 9.2 1.061 0.107 15 553.8 137-5 416.3 508.2 135.4 21h.1 70.2 76.3 12.2 1.092 0.115 1c59 619.4 130.8 h8.6 535.2 143.9 228.5 73 0 78.4 11.4 1.102 0.119 1970 670.8 196.9 h73.9 584.0 156.7 245.4 78.5 85.7 17.6 1.126 0.125 1971 (P) 735.4 233.4 497.2 637.5 169.21 266.7 81.9 92.5 20.3 1.137 0.130 1972 Jan.-.ar. 209.2 107.7 101.5 18h.6 44.4 85.1 23.2 2h.O 7.9 285 0.132 1971 Jan.-Mar. 191.8 113.0 78.8 166.9 41.3 74.3 20.7 22.4 8.2 286 0.129 (P) Prclininary 1/ Refers to consuNption of producers and distributing companies. 2/ Based on population projection by CELADE. Source: "Indicadores Economicos y Sociales", CONAPLAN (Enero-Junio 1972) Tlble 8.7 EL SALVADOR - REGIST-tATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES, 1960-70 (Number and Indices 1962=100) Persons Vehicles d_Total Capacit-. of Vehicles per per -o'i ; h. Vitr c Thc~'r.d_a w; Thousand Tons Passg. Square, r tTn,ber indx Nu,ber Indox Vehicle Kiloreter W99 29,n8 89.0 21,389 83.5 7,729 90.5 160.5 85.3 19.7 80.1 1.5 1i 32,011 97.8 23,603 97.6 8,108 98.4 177.5 94.h 21.9 89.0 109 1.6 32,718 100.0 24,177 100.0 8,541 100.0 188.1 100.0 24.6 100.0 110 1.6 196 35,7O9 109.1 27,390 113.3 8,319 97.4 191.0 101.5 21.7 88.2 101 1.8 36$ ,95 113.1 27,670 114.h 9,325 109.2 193,3 102.8 26.5 107.7 104 1.8 1965 h1,761 127.6 31,1L6 128.8 10,615 124.3 223.1 118.6 29.9 121.5 96 2.1 1166 hL,261 135.3 32,912 136.3 11,319 132.5 236.2 125.6 32.5 132.1 94 2.2 1 4< h8,C02 146.7 35,993 1h8.9 12,009 1h0.6 250.9 133.4 38.0 154.5 89 2.4 191 51,676 157.9 38,235 158.1 13,441 157.h 267.1 142.0 41.3 167g9 87 2.6 1969 51,708 167.2 40,271 166.6 14,437 169.0 .327.1 173.9 41.6 169.1 83 2.6 1970(P)57,639 176.2 41,993 173.7 15,646 183.2 296.6 157.7 45.1 183.3 82 2.7 Žwee: "IrV.cadors Economicos y Sociales", C0APLAN (Enero -. Junio, 1970). H. PRICES TablIe 9.1: EL SALVADOR: PRICE INDEXES, 1965-72 Percentage changea Yearly averages Average Weights 1963 19- 4 19 5 19. 19. 199b 1969 1970 1971 1963-67 1968 1969 1970 1971 COST OF LIVING (June 1954=100) Total 100.0 105.7 107.4 10.1 10'.1 10.3 111.1 110.9 114.0 114.4 0.6 2.6 -0.2 2.8 0.4 Food 61.4 107.4 111.1 109., 10'.7 112.4 117.3 116.6 122.3 122.6 1.1 4.4 -0.6 4.9 0.2 Housing 11.1 93.0 96.9 102. 102.^ 10-. 107.6 10 .1 106.2 104.8 1.8 2.2 0.5 -1.8 -1.3 Clothing 4.8 92.9 95.5 94.' 91.7 " 1.6 79.0 79.4 C1.0 82.2 -3.3 -5.2 0.5 2.0 1.5 Various 22.7 115.2 117.6 119. 1-0.5 120.1 1.0.6 120.9 121.7 123.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 Percentage change 1.5 1.6 0.7 -1.2 1.4 2.6 -0.2 2.8 0.4 1,1OLESALE PRICES (1955-100) Consumer goods 5 95.4 10.: 161. 9 *. 101. 10?.9 101.1 101.0 100.C 2.0 4.8 -0.1 -0.2 Food (excl. coffee) -7.0 90.2 9 1 9 .b 100. 10-.4 100.5 100.9 97.0 2.8 1.6 -1.9 0.4 -3.9 ether 20.5 10-.9 109.6 109.5 10 107'1'.6 103.6 102.1 101.4 107.7 0.6 -3.5 -1.6 -0.7 6.2 Capital goods 26.4 94.? 9E.7 94. 94.A 9".3 96.6 96.3 96.6 99.2 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.3 2.7 Construction materials 4.6 P7.6 0 Q . 9 2 79.8 e3.4 87.6 87.9 -1.6 -2.9 4.5 5.0 0.3 Fuels ar.d electricity 11.5 97.4 174 2. c 2. L -1. .1.0 o.6 C5.2 66.4 -3.4 -1.0 -0.5 3.? 3.8 All cormrodities (excl. coffee) 100.0 94.5 9 1 97.2 94.5 9-.0 97.7 96.6 97.2 98.1 0.9 -0.5 -1.1 0.6 0.9 Percentage change -0.? 3.8 -0.9 -2.2 3.7 -0.3 -1.1 0.6 0.9 Source: Centr3l Reserve Bank. J. EDUCATION Table 10.1: EL SALVADO-R: PRIMARY EDUVATION - PUPILS, TEACKERS AND SCHooLRoXMS, 1960-71 Years Primary Pre-Primary Adult Total EducationTta Pupils 1960 321,ld45 12.95L 16,475 350.874 1961 3h1,155 14,005 16,2,2 371,h02 1962 353.622 Ih,373 17, 362 385..337 1963 358,)12 17,791 28,57L lo)h, 777 1961. 378,658 1,8,260 28,6L 5 25,563 1965 397,810 17,L22 28,751 43,933 1966 433,962 20,025 27,610 681,597 1967 475,182 21,325 23,35 525,365 1968 479,800 21,o0 29,09 529,313 1969 516,875 23,210 17,653 557,7 ? 1970 531,309 24,211 14,516 570,036 1971 562,35 26,992 Teacher- 1960 8,681 573 393 9,6h7 1961 9,1,82 573 39P 0o,5 1962 11,200 614 389 12,203 1963 9, 398 6o9 1,i, l 11e,1 196h 10,891 671 1, 29 12,:61 1965 12,185 643 1, 31I 11,17 1966 12,529 736 1,2L6 1 .511 1967 12,672 733 1,512 1,917 1968 13,h06 760 1,697 15,863 1969 13,501 756 1,117 15,Lol 1970 13,919 805 687 15,411 1971 lh,124 782 Schoolrooms 1960 2,4?9 130 393 3,002 1961 2,571 1h2 399 3,112 1962 2,640 170 389 3,237 1963 2,432 184 1,112 3,728 196h 2,9hh 187 1,299 4,430 1965 2,663 186 1,319 1966 2,618 195 1,246 4,069 1967 2,912 217 1,512 4, 382 1968 2,963 202 1,697 h,833 1969 2,919 209 1,187 4,291 1970 2,892 235 637 3,81 1971 2,937 261 . Source: Ministry of Education. Table 10.2: EL SALVADOR: PRI4ARY EDUCATION - ENROLLMENT AND RETENTION COEFFICIENTS, 1962-71 Grade ('000) Total Percentage lo. 20. 30. L0. 50. 6o. ('coo) Distribut-.ion School EnrolLnent 1 1L0.1 74.2 52.2 38.3 27.3 21.5 353.6 100.0 132.2 74.5 Sh.6 41.6 31.1 24.4 358.4 100.0 1 6U 136.0 78.7 57.6 bh.6 31.3 27.4 378.6 100.0 1965 14U.0 81.2 60.5 L6.6 36.5 29.0 397.8 ioo.o 166 155.7 8-.6 66.2 51.2 39.3 32.0 L36.0 100.0 1967 160.7 103.3 73.3 58.2 13.8 35.9 475.2 100.0 1963 155.3 99.6 78.L 59.8 7.P 38.3 L-79.8 100.0 196? 173.8 1OL.7 81.0 64.5 50.9 L1.8 516.7 10%.D 1970 17.7 105.8 85.5 66.9 5h.2 44.2 531.3 100.0 1071 137.1 112.9 87.5 71.1 56.6 h7.2 562.4 100.0 Graduations 1962 66.7 L5.0 31.1 23.1 17.6 13.6 197.1 55.8 1263 75.7 52.3 37.2 29.9 23.7 18.9 237.7 66.3 196k 75.2 SL.? tO.0 31.3 25.7 21.5 2U8.5 65.6 S65 80.5 58.5 L3.3 33.6 28.1 23.0 267.0 67.1 1966 91.9 66.6 50.9 39.3 32.3 27,1 315.1 72.6 1967 9.9 76.4 56.1 L5.2 35.6 30.6 3h2.8 72.1 1963 L.6 71.2 56.5 LL.5 37.2 31.6 335.6 70.0 1969 93.1 75.5 59.4 h8.0 39.9 3L.0 353.9 63.5 1970 105.6 78.6 63.8 51.3 43.4 37. 3:0.1 71.5 1971 143.0 96.3 7h.4 61.1 L9.7 I1.8 666.3 ;2. Failures 1062 16. 16. 11.8 7.9 L.7 3.1 90.3 25.5 1963 L2.L 15.9 11.5 8.7 5.4 3.3 87.2 2L.3 1964 13.1 16.2 12.1 9.3 6.3 3.6 90.9 2L.0 1965 39,2 15.0 11.3 8.6 5.7 3.5 83.3 20.9 1966 36.L 15. 10.6 8.4 4.8 3.1 78.7 1.1 1967 4.S 19.4 1.2.2 8.9 5.6 3.L 93.0 1-6 1968 39.9 19.1 13.S 9.6 6.5 3.8 92.7 19.3 1969 L3.3 19.0 1b.1 10.6 6.6 L.1 97.7 13.9 1970 h0. 17.7 14).1 9.6 6.6 3.7 91.3 17.3 1971 1.7 0.8 0.6 o.4 o.4 0.3 .2 0.8 orop-outs 1)62 27.0 12.8 9.3 7.3 5.0 L.8 66.2 13.7 1063 1.1 6.3 5.9 3.0 2.0 2.2 33.5 9., 17.7 7.7 5.2 4.0 2.3 2.3 39.2 10.h 1965 2),.3 7.7 5.9 L.h 2.7 2.5 47.5 12.0 1q66 20.3 7.6 b.7 3.5 2.2 1.9 40.2 . 1967 15.3 7.5 5.0 h.1 2.6 1.9 39., 3.3 l 21.3 9.3 8.1 5.7 4.2 2.9 51.5 10.7 12.4 10.2 8.5 5.9 L.4 3.7 65.1 12.6 1970 29.0 9.5 7.6 6.0 4.2 3.1 59.4 1! 2 1971 U2.h 15.3 12.5 9.6 6.5 5.1 91.9 16.3 Retention Coefficients 1962-67 Millions of pupils: 3.0 Percentage 21i,3 1963-6i Millions of pupils: 35.L Fercentage 26.8 196h-69 millions of pupils: 38.1 Percentage 28.0 1965-70 M.illions of pupils: h1.1 Percentage 28.5 196k-71 iillions cf pupils: ,2.1 Pe'rcentage 27.0