Guyana - Highway Project

RESTRICTED Report No. PTR-110a This report is for official use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized orpnizations or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA April 6, 1972 Transportation Projects Department  Currency ftuivalents: Currency Unit - Guyana dollar (G$) US$0.50 G$1.00 US$1.00 = G$2.00 Us$500,00 = G$1 million Fiscal Year: January 1 - December 31 System of Weights and Measures: British/US British/US Metric I 1 foot (ft) = 0.30 meter (m) 1 mile (mi) = 1.61 kilometers (km) 1 pound (lb) = 0.45 kilograms (kg) Abbreviations and Acronyms: CIDA - Canadian International Development Association GAC - Guyana Airways Corporation MC - Ministry of Cinunications NWHS - Ministry of Works, Hydraulics and Supply UNDP - United Nations Development Programe US A.I.D.- United States Agency for International Development ADT - Average Daily Traffic IER Internal Economic Return mph - miles per hour  APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA CONTENTS Page No. SUDIARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................ i-ii I. INTRODUCTION ....................................... 1 II. BACKGROUND ......................................... 1 A. The Country and its Economy ...... ........... 1 B. The Transport Sector ......................... 2 C. Transport Planning and Coordination .... ...... 5 III. THIE HIGIIWAY SECTOR ...... ...................... 6 A. The Network .................................. 6 B. Characteristics and Growth of Traffic ........ 6 C. Administration ............................... 7 D. Planning and Financing ....................... 7 E. Engineering .................................. 8 F. Construction ................................. 8 G. Maintenance .................................. 8 IV. THE PROJECT ........................................ 9 A. Description ........ .......................... 9 B. Cost Estimates and Foreign Exchange Component. 12 C. Execution ........ ............................ 14 D. Financing ......... ........................... 14 E. Disbursements ................................ 15 V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ................................ 15 A. The Project Roads ............................ 15 B. Benefits from the Project .................... 15 VI. ACGREMENTS REACIIED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............. 16 This report was prepared by Messrs. M. W. Dickerson (Engineer), T. Neuner, and T. Horie (Economists), and edited by Mrs. P. Valad.  CONTENTS_(Continued) TABLES 1. Transport Operations of the Ministry of Communications by Mode, 1965-70 2. The Highway Network, 1970 3. Vehicle Registrations, 1950, 1960, and, 1965-70 4. Revenues from Use and Ownership of Motor Vehicles, 1966-70 5. Actual and Projected Expenditures on National and Urban Roads, FY1966-FY1976 6. Proposed Design Standards for Project Roads 7. Projected Weighted Average Daily Traffic on Project Roads 8. First Year Returns and Internal Economic Returns on Project Roads 9. Vehicle Operating Costs by Type of Road and Traffic Flow ANNEXES A. Central Transport Planning Unit - Summary of Proposed Work Program B. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements CHARTS Organization of the Roads Division of the Ministry of Works, Hydraulics and Supply MAPS 1. Guyana - Highway Network 2. Guyana - Highway Project  APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Summary and Conclusions i. Since Guyana achieved independence in 1966, the Government has placed strong emphasis on improvement of the transport system. During the first 4 years of the initial Development Program (1966-71), about one-third of total public investment was devoted to transport. Most of the expendi- ture, including substantial assistance from the United States Agency for In- ternational Development, was for roadworks, but some also was for improved air transport to the remote interior. Guyana's next Development Program (1972-76) is still being formulated, but the Government has indicated that it wishes transport investment to remain substantial and to be oriented toward development of the agricultural sector. The proposed project will be the first for highways in Guyana. ii. Guyana's transport system includes highway, shipping, railway, and air services, but no formal organization currently undertakes transport plan- ning and coordination. The Government realizes the importance of relating transport development to national economic goals, and intends to set up a central transport planning unit for this purpose. Under the proposed pro- ject, technical assistance will be provided to the unit, whose major duties will be to: (a) collect and interpret transport information, (b) formulate and coordinate transport policy, and (c) identify and prepare priority trans- port investments. iii. With transport shifting from primary reliance on rail and shipping to roads, the Government has been improving and extending the highway network in the narrow coastal plain where 90% of the population is living and 80% of the Gross Domestic Product is produced. The Government wishes to provide principal communities in the coastal plain with dependable low-cost transport, and is relying primarily on better highways to achieve this objective. iv. Improvement under the project of the West Coast and West Bank Roads, together witlh two adjoining feeder roads, will contribute substantially to the coastal road improvement program and further agricultural development in the area. The preparationi work for the four roads, including feasibility stu(dies and subsequent detailed engineering, was financed by the Canadian Interniational Development Agency. Under the proposed project, the roads will be realigned where necessary and widened to relieve congestion, deteri- orating pavements will be strengthened, and weighbridges will be provided to help the Government enforce vehicle weight limitations. The road improvements should yield a combined Internal Economic Return (IER) of 15%, with individual IERs ranging from about 13% to 19%.  - ii - v. The project also includes feasibility studies and detailed en- gineering of roads and consulting services for organizational and operational improvements. Feasibility studies will be made of about 200 mi of roads, followed by detailed engineering of about 100 mi of high priority roads identified by the studies, which could provide the basis of a future highway construction project. The consulting services will be provided to the Min- istry of Works, Hlydraulics and Supply (MWHS) and its Roads Division. vi. The total project cost, including contingencies, is estimated at US$8.2 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$5.6 million or 68% of the total cost. The foreign cost will be financed by an IDA credit of US$4.4 million and a grant of US$1.2 million from the United Nations De- velopment Programme (UNDP). The IDA credit will finance the road improve- ment and supervision works, weighbridges, and detailed engineering. The Government has asked the IDP for a grant to finance the feasibility studies, consulting services, and technical assistance, with the Bank Group acting as Executing Agency. A commitment by UNDP to provide the grant is a condition of credit effectiveness. Local costs will be met by the Government. Road- works contracts will be awarded after international competitive bidding fol- lowing normal Bank Group procedures. Supervision of roadworks and other expert services will be carried out by consultants. The MWHS Roads Division will be responsible for project execution. vii. The project is suitable for an IDA credit of US$4.4 million to the Government of Guyana on the usual terms.  APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA I. INTRODUCTION 1.01 The proposed Highway Project would be the fifth Bank Group project and the first for transportation in Guyana. It is based on feasibility studies financed by the Canadian International Development Association (CIDA) and carried out by the consulting firm De Leuw Cather (Canada). To help finance the project, the Covernment of Guyana has requested a credit from the Asso- ciation and a grant from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 1.02 The proposed project comprises: (i) improvement of four road sections totalling about 34 mi; (ii) supervision of improvement works; (iii) purchase and installation of vehicle weighbridges; (iv) feasibility studies of about 200 mi of national highways; (v) detailed engineering of about 100 mi of high priority roads resulting from the studies; (vi) consulting ser- vices to improve the organization and operations of the Ministry of Works, Hydraulics and Supply (MWHS); and (vii) technical assistance to a central transport planning unit. 1.03 The project cost is estimated at US$8.2 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$5.6 million. Of the foreign exchange component, the Association has been asked to provide a credit of US$4.4 million for items (i), (ii), (iii) and (v) in para. 1.02 and the UNDP a grant of US$1.2 million for items (iv), (vi) and (vii). Agreement by the UNDP to provide this grant is a condition of credit effectiveness. The Government has asked the UNDP to arrange for the Bank Group to act as the Executing Agency. 1.04 This report was prepared by Messrs. M. W. Dickerson (Engineer), T. Neuner, and T. Horie (Economists), who appraised the project in October 1971. It was edited by Mrs. P. Valad. II. BACKGROUND A. The Cotintry and its Economy 2.01 Guyana, on the northeast coast of South America, is bordered by Venezuela, Brazil, and Surinam. The country is about as large as the United Kinigdom, and is divided into three major topographic regions: the low coastal plaini, the hilly belt with dense forests, and mountains interspersed by savan- nalis in the west and south. The major rivers are navigable only a short distance inland, and transport beyond the coastal plain is difficult. The only reliable transport to the interior is by air.  -2- 2.02 Economically, the most important region is the 270 mi long and 10-40 mi wide coastal plain. With only 5% of the land area, it contains 90% of the population and produces about 80% of the Gross Domestic Product. Rich alluvial soil has made the coastal plain the agricultural center where sugar and rice are grown. Much of the region is below high-tide level and protected against flooding by dikes. Canals for drainage and irrigation crisscross the region. The alluvial soil and numerous waterways make road construction expensive. 2.03 Less than 100 mi inland, bauxite is mined at several deposits and shipped to the coast by river. The interior is sparsely settled, with a few cattle ranches in the savannahs near the Brazilian border and some scattered gold and diamond mines. To relieve population pressure in the coastal plain, the Government wants to open up the interior. Therefore, with "self-help" (voluntary labor) and a minimum of machinery, it is constructing a road along a north-south corridor toward the Brazilian border. So far, only a few set- tlers have been attracted. 2.04 To keep the export economy functioning efficiently and to encourage agricultural expansion, good roads are needed to transport commodities to the ports. For the immediate future, it appears that the thrust of development will remain concentrated in the coastal plain and the mining areas of the nearby hinterland. 1/ B. The Transport Sector (a) General 2.05 Guyana's transport system is concentrated in and along the sugar and rice-growing areas of the coastal plain, with very little traffic to or in the interior. No estimates are available on total passenger or ton miles moved, but roads carry most traffic and road transport is becoming more sig- nificant. Next in importance are coastal and inland shipping, and many size- able settlements can be reached only by this means. Two railways are now operating, but they are uneconomical and will be phased out. Air service is relatively insignificant, except to the remote interior. 2.06 Transport services are operated in the private and public sectors. In the private sector, small operators of trucks and buses, hire cars 2/, and vessels play a significant role. The Government, through its departments or wholly-owned corporations, operates a variety of transport services, includ- ing buses and trucks, ports and shipping, railways, and air services., Table 1 shows the transport operations of the Ministry of Communications (MC). Most operations of the MC are in railways and shipping, and its role in highway transport is small. 1/ IBRD/IDA, "Current Economic Position and Prospects of Guyana," Report No. CA-4a, October 1, 1970. 2/ Unscheduled car transport of up to five passengers along established routes.  - 3 - 2.07 Regulatory and pricing policies for transport services in the private and public sectors appear to be inconsistent. Private operators are free to make their own arrangements on rates and schedules on all ser- vices except buses. In contrast, Government-operated transport is subject to strict rules on fares, rates, and schedules. In most cases, it shows finan- cial deficits. Detailed information on private sector operations is not available, and it is impossible at this stage to assess the merits of these apparently inconsistent policies. A review of transport policy will be un- dertaken by the central transport planning unit (para. 2.20). (b) Road Transport and Highways 2.08 On present indications, Guyana's road transport industry serves the demand adequately. The Government is expanding its bus transport by es- tablishing a new corporation, Guyana Transport Services, and aims to extend its services gradually on the coasts east and west of Georgetown (para. 2.14). The Government also operates a few trucks and buses from Bartica into the interior. Ilowever, most passenger and freight traffic is handled by private operators of trucks, buses, and hire cars who are freely licensed to enter into business. Hire cars probably handle many more passengers than buses. Their rates exceed bus rates, but in the minds of many consumers the con- venience and speed of tlleir services outweigh the added costs. 2.09 Details of the highway sector are given in Chapter III. (c) Ports and Shipping 2.10 The capital, Georgetown, is the most important international port, and handles over 3 million net registered tons of shipping annually. The Gov- ernment provides pilotage and other harbor services, but nearly all wharves are privately owned. A silt bar across the mouth of the Demerara River limits shipping to vessels of 20 ft draught, and wharf depths are usually several feet shallower. Despite these limitations, facilities are much better than those at other ports in Guyana. The second port, New Amsterdam, handles about 20% of the traffic passing through Georgetown. 2.11 The Government operates ferries carrying about 6 million passengers annually across the Demerara River at Georgetown and across the Berbice River at New Amsterdam, as well as ships to islands, inland river points, and the Essequibo Coast. While most passenger traffic has grown recently, cargo traf- fic has declined. The overall deficit in Government shipping operations (about C$1 million p.a.) is mainly attributed to losses on cargo business. Government shipping operations would show better results if they were coordinated with improved lhighlway services and if tugs and barges were used more effectively instead of ships. 2.12 Private sector shipping includes a variety of ships, barges, and punts plying the larger bodies of water and the canals in the agricultural areas. No information is available on the size of these operations.  -4- (d) Railways 2.13 Guyana's railways play a relatively unimportant role in the coun- try's transport system. A few railways are used in mining operations. The Government operates two common carrier railways along the coast: the East Coast Railway, about 22 mi between Georgetown and Mahaica, and the West Coast Railway, about 21 mi between Vreed-en Hoop (on the opposite bank of the Denmerara River from Georgetown) and Parika. Freight represents a small part of their business, and both units derive most of their revenues from passen- gers. Tn 1970, revenues on the East Coast Railway failed to cover out-of- pocket expenses by nearly G$1 million; on the West Coast Railway, the deficit was about G$250,000. Passengers who continue to patronize the railways do so because either the station happens to lie close to their homes or the contract fares _/ are low. 2.14 The Government has decided, in principle, to close both railways as soon as the existing parallel roads have been improved and adequate bus services have been provided. A comparison of the costs of substituting buses for rail services, undertaken by the consultants De Leuw Cather, confirmed that buses could carry the present number of rail passengers at substantial- ly lower cost and at the same level of service. The Government has already closed part of the East Coast Railway, i.e., the track east of Mahaica to Rosignol, and has brought a bus company into operation. The remainder of the East Coast Railway is due to be closed during 1972. On the West Coast, a 12 ml road section between Uitflugt and Parika is being reconstructed by force account, hut progress has been slow. This section connects with one of the project roads, and when both have been completed the Government will be able to phase out the West Coast Railway. During credit negotiations, an assurance was obtained from the Government that it will prepare by the end of 1973 a plan to implement its decision to phase out the West Coast railway. (e) Aviation 2.15 A number of leading airlines service Guyana through the interna- tional airport at Timheri, south of Georgetown. The Government wholly owns the national carrier, Guyana Airways Corporation (GAC), which operates sched- uled domestic services and some non-scheduled international services. It also lhas rights to fly a scheduled service as far as New York. GAC operates fronm Timheri into 30 short and mostly unsurfaced airfields located through- out Guyana. 2.16 The GAC fleet consists of small aircraft, such as DC 3's and Twin Otters, which can operate satisfactorily under existing conditions. The nav- igational aids at Timheri and principal airfields are currently being im- proved and extended under financing from CIDA. The Department of Civil Aviation in the MC, which is responsible for Government airfields, has no plans at present for major expansion of facilities. 1/ Low fares for multiple rides, especially for school children.  5- 2.17 Hours flown by the GAG increased from 1,550 in 1963 to 9,516 in 1969, and total revenues rose steeply. Nonetheless, operating results showed losses (about G$1 million in 1970) because of the low charges to interior development areas. GAC recently requested a subsidy on all services that, for policy reasons, the Government wished to be offered at less than cost. The Government has agreed in principle to begin this subsidy in 1972. C. Transport Planning and Coordination 2.18 Guyana is now completing its initial Development Program (1966-71), which contained a list of high priority projects in the main economic sectors, including transport. A new Program is being prepared for 1972-76, and prelim- inary indications are that further transport projects (including the project roads) will be on the list of high priority projects. 2.19 The Government currently does not carry out overall transport plan- ning and no appropriate planning organization exists, either in the agency responsible for overall economic planning, the Ministry of Economic Develop- ment, or in the two Government agencies specifically charged with transport, the Ministry of Communications (MC) or the Ministry of Works, Hydraulics and Supply (M7iHS). The MC operates buses and trucks, ports and shipping, and railways, and has jurisdiction over all aviation (including the GAC). The tWliS is responsible for the public roads of the national highway network, as well as for other public works (para. 3.05). 2.20 The Government has agreed to set up a central transport plan- ning unit to: fill important gaps in transport information; review, form- ulate, and coordinate transport policies; and properly plan transport in- vestments. The unit will be the principal repository of transport expertise and the main agency for identifying and evaluating transport projects. The major duties of the unit are discussed in Annex A. A particular function of the unit will be to review a tentative 5-year (1972-76) highway develop- ment program, expected to cost about G$79 million (US$39.5 million). Al- though the program is not based on a detailed economic analysis, it is ex- pected to meet short-term needs. 2.21 The Unit will be located in the Ministry of Economic Development and its staff will be Guyanese, assisted by two experienced transport econ- oinists during the initial operating period. The Government has requested finance under the project for the services of these two experts (para. 4.1n). During credit negotiations, establishment of a transport planning unit, in- cluding the arrangements, staffing, and proposed work program, was reviewed and agreed.  - 6 - III. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR k. The Network 3.31 The existing highway network, shown in Map 1, totals about 1,600 mi; [;-rails are given in Table 2. Only about 370 mi are paved, and many tracks are passable only in fair weather. The system comprises national, provincial, itid urban roads. National roads are roads and tracks maintained solely by i-ii Government, provincial roads are maintained by local authorities, and irban roads are the streets of Georgetown and New Amsterdam. J. Characteristics and Growth of Traffic 3.02 Statistics on motor vehicle registrations are shown in Table 3. At the end of 1970, about 40,000 units (including motorcycles) were regis- zered, or more than eight times the number in 1950. However, registration iigures also include some scrapped vehicles, and the actual numbers in ser- rice are considerably less.1/ Over the past 5 years, between 1,300 and 1,700 <.ars were imported annually, and the fleet grew at between 5% and 10% p.a. iy comparison, gasoline and diesel oil imports together rose 8% p.a. 3.03 The MWIS conducts traffic counts on major roads twice each year :or one week. Available data indicate considerable seasonal variations and suggest the need for more frequent counts, additional counting stations, and ;upplementary surveys of traffic composition and origin and destination. Dur- :,ng credit negotiations, an assurance was obtained from the Government that, hased on recommendations to be made by consultants (paras. 4.08 and 4.09), 't will institute and operate an improved program of highway traffic count- Ing and related data collection. :;.04 The limits for permissible motor vehicle axle loads are over- restrictive (11,200 lbs), but they are rarely enforced. Proposals to raise the limit to a more realistic level to be enforced more strictly are under Lonsideration by the Government. During credit negotiations, these proposals were reviewed and considered satisfactory as an interim measure. In addition, assurances were obtained from the Government that, in conjunction with the central transport planning unit, it will: (i) review and, if necessary, amend legislation on vehicle loads and dimensions, in accordance with the structural and geometric design of the highway network, and (ii) enforce the legislation. To assist the Government in enforcement, weighbridges w.ill be procured under the project (para. 4.05). 1/ In 1970, the actual number of cars, trucks, and buses was-estimated at about two-thirds of the number shown as registered.  -7- C. Administration 3.05 The IWIIS is responsible for planning, constructing, and maintain- ing public roads in the national highway network. It also is responsible for other public works, such as sea defenses, buildings, and water supply (Chart). The Roads Division is headed by a Chief Roads Engineer and is staffed by 16 other qualified engineers at headquarters in Georgetown. 3.06 For construction supervision and road maintenance, the Roads Divi- sion functions principally through nine MWHS District Offices. The District Engineers in charge of these offices undertake not only highway duties but also most other MWIIS functions. Conflicts of responsibilities inevitably occur because of the many functions with which they are charged. Studies to improve the operations of the Mechanical and Electrical Division and the Supplies, Accounts and Audits Division are now underway by a technical assis- tance team from the United Kingdom and a United Nations Advisor, respectively. The Government wants to review the operations and organization of the entire 1191S, in particular to improve the functions of the District Offices and the planning and operations of highway maintenance, and has requested consulting services under the project for this purpose (para. 4.08). 3.07 Local authorities and town councils, which administer local and urban roads, receive ad hoc technical assistance from both the Roads Division and the District Engineers. The proposed consulting services to the nWIIS for organization and operations would review the possibility of creating a new section witlhin the Roads Division to deal exclusively with local authority assistance. D. Planning and Financing 3.08 Guyana does not have a fund earmarked to finance highway expendi- tures; funds come from general revenues and foreign aid. The total amount spent in 1970 on highways under the control of the MWIS was about G$12 mil- lion (US$6 million). In addition, local authorities received Government grants of about C$200,000 p.a., representing about 50% of the total capital and recurrent expenditures for highways under their jurisdiction. Since 1966, bilateral foreign aid for improvement and construction of highways has been provided by the United States Agency for International Development (US A.I.D.) (about US$20 million), the United Kingdom (about US$1 million), and CIDA (ahout US$800,000). US A.I.D. has also agreed to contribute a further US$9 million between 1972 and 1975 for reconstruction of roads in and around Georgetown. 3.09 Revenues from use and ownership of motor vehicles, shown in Table 4, accounted for 8% of total current budgetary receipts in 1970. The largest part of these revenues was duties on imported motor vehicles, fuel, and re- lated items, accounting for about a quarter of all import duties but only 6% of the value of all goods entering Cuyana. At present, user charges meet recurrent higlhway expenditures and provide about half the capital investments on highways; they are adequate at the present level of expenditures, but will bc reviewed on the basis of the investment recommendations of the proposed transport planning unit (para. 2.20).  -8- E. Engineering 3.10 Highway engineering is the responsibility of the MWHS Roads Division through an assistant chief engineer controlling four separate sections at head- quarters: Soils, Materials, and Research; Survey; Geometric Design; and Struc- tures. The sections are ably staffed and satisfactorily undertake detailed en- gineering for locally-financed projects. Since early 1971, they assisted the consultants, De Leuw Cather, in preparing the proposed project works. The quality of the technical staff is high, but more are required to adequately staff the Division. Foreign consultants are used to supplement engineering capacity, but their work has been principally confined to major projects financed by foreign aid. Highway and bridge standards are based on traffic requirements and are satisfactory. However, construction specifications for some recently completed roadworks appear to be excessive. F. Construction 3.11 Ilighway construction is administered by the Construction Section of tlhe M.l1S Roads Division. Of the G$32 million highway construction program be- tween 1969 and 1971, about 60% was undertaken by contract and the remainder by force account. Major contracts are currently confined to foreign aid pro- jects, with force account undertaking locally financed works. Bridgeworks are generally constructed by local contractors, and one local roadworks contractor has developed by working as a subcontractor on a US A.I.D. project. The Gov- ernment recognizes the need to build up the local contracting industry, and is providing assistance to cooperatives for this purpose. Due to the low level of work and isolated sites, work in the remote interior can best be under- taken by force account or contract labor. 3.12 Construction contracts are awarded on a competitive basis and participation by foreign bidders is not restricted. Currently, one major United States contractor is undertaking roadworks and two major United Klingdom contractors are participating in two sea defense works (one Bank- financed) and building construction. All foreign contractors employ local subcontractors. C. Maintenance 3.13 The Maintenance Section of the MIS Roads Division has overall re- sporisibility for maintenance, but field operations are carried out by District Engineers. However, as stated in para. 3.06, District Engineers are in charge of many otlher functions not related to maintenance and do not have sufficient timc to devote to this activity. Inadequate attention to maintenance is par- ticularly damaging in view of other conditions which make it difficult to keep the highway network in proper repair: equipment available is old and both difficult and expensive to keep working, and high rainfall and shortage of granular material inhibit regular operations. Lack of planning also dis- sipates efforts and funds.  3.14 At US$1,100/mi (excluding administration and equipment depreci- ation), budgeted funds for maintenance appear reasonable. However, diver- sion of funds to improvement projects and redundant labor in the maintenance force causes uneconomic application of resources and leave little for routine maintenance. Although funds spent are audited, they are not subject to cost accounting. 3.15 The Government is aware that planning and operation of road main- tenance must be improved and has requested technical assistance under the project for this purpose. The assistance will be undertaken as part of the proposed consulting services to the MWIS (para. 4.08). During credit nego- tiations, assurances were obtained from the Government that, on the basis of this study, it will, formulate by June 30, 1973 a highway maintenance program satisfactory to the Association and take the necessary steps (in- cluding provision of funds) to improve maintenance operations in accordance with the program. IV. THE PROJECT A. Description 4.01 The proposed project includes: (i) improvement of four road sections totalling about 34 mi; (ii) supervision of improvement works by consultants; (iii) purchase and installation of vehicle weighbridges; (iv) feasibility studies by consultants of about 200 mi of national highways; (v) detailed engineering by consultants of about 100 mi of high priority roads resulting from the feasibility studies; (vi) consulting services to improve the organization and operations of the MWHS; and (vii) technical assistance by consultants to a central transport planning unit. The consulting services under the project will be provided by qualified and experienced consultants primarily from outside Guyana. (a) Improvement 4.02 The roads proposed for improvement, shown in Map 2, are the:  - 10 - (i) West Coast Road (10.5 mi) - This road runs parallel to the coastline and is connected to Georgetown by a ferry service across the Demerara River (para 2.12). With many sharp curves, narrow bridges and shoulders, and a deteriorating pavement, the road is not adequately serving current traffic needs. Improvements include curve realignments, shoulder widening, and a bituminous pavement overlay. (ii) West Bank Road (9 mi) - Running along the west bank of the Demerara River, this road intersects the West Coast Road near the ferry landing. Improvements are similar to those for the West Coast Road. (iii) Canal Roads 1 and 2 (14 mi total) - These two roads feed traffic to the West Bank Road. The roads are on a good alignment, but are unpaved and impassable when wet. Under the project, they will be raised and paved. 4.03 The design standards for the project, shown in Table 6, vary ac- cording to traffic and the functions of individual sections of each road; they are satisfactory. Pavement for all roads has been designed in accor- dance with the stage construction principle. (b) Supervision of Improvement Works 4.04 Under a grant from CIDA, the consulting firm De Leuw Cather prepared satisfactory feasibility studies and detailed engineering for the project roads. The Government intends to retain this firm to supervise im- provement of the project roads. However, MWHS staff will fill most posts in the supervision team. During credit negotiations, terms of reference and staffing arrangements for supervision were agreed. (c) Vehicle Weighbridges 4.05 The Government wishes to ensure that design axle loadings are not exceeded on the main roads and the project includes purchase and installation of permanent weighbridges. During credit negotiations, the number, locations, and operations of weighbridges were discussed and generally agreed. The Government will submit details of operational policy for approval by the Association before purchasing the weighbridges. (d) Feasibility Studies 4.06 As part of an overall transport plan, the central transport plan- ningunit (para. 4.10) is to prepare by mid-1973 the list of roads for which feasibility studies will be made. Feasibility studies, to be undertaken by consultants, will cover about 200 mi of roads. During credit negotiations, an assurance was obtained from the Government that before the feasibility studies begin it will discuss and agree with the Association the list of roads to be studied, the terms of reference for the studies, and the selec- tionI of consultants.  - 11 - (e) Detailed Engineering 4.07 Detailed engineering by consultants of about 100 mi of high prior- ity roads, identified under the feasibility studies (para. 4.06) and selected in agreement with the Association, is included in the project. The engineer- ing could provide the basis of a future highway construction project. During credit negotiations, an assurance was obtained from the Government that it will retain qualified and experienced consultants on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association. (f) Consulting Services to the MWHS 4.08 The Government wants to improve the organization and operations of the WIHS, and has requested that consultants be engaged under the pro- ject for this purpose. The consultants will undertake a management study which will review the organization and operations of the entire IHS, in particular to improve the functions of the District Offices and the planning and opera- tions of highway maintenance (paras. 3.06 and 3.15). The study will be un- dertaken by a team of experts from a qualified consulting firm and carried out in two phases. During the first phase (about 6 months), the functions of the entire MINIIS and individual divisions and districts will be reviewed, problem areas identified, and reconmendations for improvement made. During the second phase (about 18 months), the recommendations will be implemented and a training program established and operated, with participation by the consultants. 4.09 During credit negotiations, the terms of reference for the consult- ing services were agreed. Assurances were obtained from the Government that it will, in consultation with the Association: (i) discuss and confirm, after the first phase has been completed, the recommendations and implementa- tion timetable for the second phase; (ii) review the progress of the proposed improvements before the end of the 2-year assignment of the team and assess the need for further consulting services; and (iii) make qualified counter- parts available to work full-time with the consultants. (g) Technical Assistance to a Central Transport Planning Unit 4.10 The Government has agreed to the formation of a central transport planning unit within the Ministry of Economic Development. Technical assis- tance for establishment and initial operation of the unit is included under the project and will be provided by two transport economists. During credit negotiations, thie terms of reference for the transport economists were agreed. Also, assurances were obtained from the Government that it will, in consul- tation with the Association: (i) review the progress of transport planning before the end of the 2-year assignment of the economists and assess the need for furtlier technical assistance; and (ii) make qualified counterparts avail- able to work full-time with the consultants.  - 12 - B. Cost Estimates and Foreigr, Exchange Component 4.11 At October 1971 prices, the total project cost (including contin- gencies) is estimated at US$8.2 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$5.6 million. Details are shown in the table on page 13. 4.12 The cost estimates for road improvement, prepared by the consul- tants De Leuw Cather, are based on quantities derived from detailed engineer- ing and local costs of labor, equipment operation, materials, and overhead; they are satisfactory. The estimate of costs for supervision of the improve- ment works is based on a schedule of staffing requirements and estimated man-month rates. The cost estimates for weighbridges are based on manu- facturers' quotations. Estimates of costs for the feasibility studies, detailed engineering, consulting services, and technical assistance are based on the cost of similar work in Guyana and on comparable work else- where in the Caribbean area. A 10% contingency allowance for quantity over- runs is adequate for all items under the project. A 15% price contingency f or improvement is based on a 6% p.a. increase in foreign and local costs from the date of cost estimates (October 1971) to completion of work (the end of 1975). During credit negotiations, cost estimates were reviewed and agreed. 4.13 De Leuw Cather calculated the foreign exchange component of road improvement to be 68% of total costs net of taxes and duties and 64% of total costs including taxes and duties. This assumed that works would be carried out by foreign contractors, with some participation by local contractors and subcontractors. The estimate is satisfactory. The foreign exchange com- ponent for weighbridges was based on the CIP landed value of the units, to- gether with 68% of the installation cost. For the consulting services (in- cluding technical assistance), the foreign exchange component was based on the estimated costs of salaries for foreign experts and imported equipment. C. Execution 4.14 The western part of the West Coast Road is being improved under force account. Improvement of the eastern section of this road under the proposed project will be affected by progress of work on the western sec- tlon, which is to serve as a haul road for improvement under the project. During credit negotiations, assurances were obtained from the Government that it will complete the western section by the end of 1972. 4.15 The M1S Roads Division, assisted by qualified and experienced consultants, will be responsible for executing the IDA-financed portion of the project. Procurement for road improvement works and for the supply of weighbridges will be by international competitive bidding and in accordance with the Bank Group "Guidelines on Procurement". Contractors for road im- provement will be prequalified and contracts for all four roads will be ad- vertised in two sections. One section will be the West Coast and West Bank  - 13 - Foreign 0$ (million) US$ (million) Exchange Local Foreign Total Local ForeiEn Total Component Part I. Items to be fi- nanced by the Association A. Road Improvement (a) West Bank Road 1.0 1.9 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 (b) West Coast Road 1.1 2.3 3.4 0.5 1.2 1.7 (c) Two Canal Roads 0.4 Q.9 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 Sub-Total A. 2.5 5.1 7.6 1.2 2.6 3.8 68 B. Supervision of A. 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 67 C. Weighbridges 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 67 D. Detailed Engineering 0.4 o.8 1.2 0.2 0.4 o.6 67 E. Contingency Allow- ances: (a) on A. and C. - 25% (10% Physical and 15% Price) 0.7 1.3 2.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 (b) on B. and D. - 10% Physical 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 Sub-Total E. 0.9 1.5 2.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 Total of Items to be financed by the Association 4.4 8.5 12.9 2.1 4-4 6.5 68 Part II. Items to be financed by the UNDP F. Feasibility Studies 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 67 G. Consulting Services 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.7 0.9 78 H. Techniqal Assistance 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 67 I. Contingencies on F., G. and H. - Physical 10% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total of Items to be financed by the UNDP 0.9 2.4 3.3 0.5 1.2 1.7 71 Total Project Costs 5.3 10. 16.2 2.6 5.6 8.2 68  - 14 - Roads combined because fill material for both roads has to be hauled along the West Bank Road. The other section will be the two Canal Roads. Con- tractors may hid for one or both sections. The Canal Roads might attract bids from smaller contractors, including the local roadworks contractor (para. 3.11). Small local contractors are also expected to participate as subcontractors. Contracts will be awarded in about the fourth quarter of 1972 and should be completed toward mid-1975. The rather long time period allows for inclement weather. The consultants for the organizational and operational improvements to the MWH1S and for the central transport planning unit will be retained during the second half of 1972 for a 2-year period. Feasibility studies should begin in 1973, and be followed by detailed engi- neering. Weighbridge procurement and installation is expected to be com- pleted by mid-1974. During credit negotiations, the timing of project execu- tion was reviewed and agreed. 4.16 Guyana applies a system of preferential tariffs to some imports. It is the Government's policy, however, not to apply tariffs to imports in connection with externally financed projects. Therefore, the procurement of weighbridges under this project will be duty free. 4.17 The potential of the roadworks under the project for relieving unemployment in Guyana has been considered. The principal operations (road widening and pavement overlay) and the relatively long transport distance for road construction materials do not lend themselves to labor-intensive methods. However, it is estimated that 100-300 laborers will be employed on the project. 4.18 Existing procedures for right-of-way acquisition are satisfactory and no problems are expected to arise. Right-of-way will be acquired before improvement begins. During credit negotiations, the status of land acquisi- tion was reviewed and is satisfactory. D. Financing 4.19 The proposed project will be jointly financed by the Association and the UNDP. The IDA credit of US$4.4 million will finance the entire es- timated foreign exchange component of the road improvement, supervision, weighbridges, and further detailed engineering. The Government has request- ed a UNDP grant of US$1.2 million to cover the feasibility studies, consult- in3 services, and technical assistance. A condition of effectiveness of the credit is agreement by the UNDP to finance these elements of the project. Local cost financing will be made available from the general budget. During credit negotiations, agreement was reached on the timely allocation of local f un1ds.  - 15 - E. Disbursements 4.20 The proposed credit would finance 68% of the total cost of road improvements, 100% of the CIF landed cost of the weighbridges, and 100% of the foreign exchange cost of consulting services. Based on this and on the schedule of project implementation given in para. 4.15, an Estimated Schedule of Disbursements has been prepared. The Schedule is shown in Annex B and was reviewed during credit negotiations. Surplus funds in the Credit Account upon completion of the project should be cancelled. V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION A. The Project Roads (a) General 5.01 The project roads are in the heavily cultivated coastal region west of Georgetown and pass through several urban areas. Proposed improve- ments include paved shoulders for slow moving traffic (bicycles and tractors) and pedestrians. The full benefits from these improvements can only be realized if measures are adopted and enforced to keep the carriageway clear from this traffic and to prevent strip development from encroaching on the right-of-way. During credit negotiations, an assurance was obtained from the Government that it will enforce existing regulations to this effect. (b) Traffic (Table_7) 5.02 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) in 1971, on the West Coast Road varied from about 1,000 to 2,700 and on the West Bank Road from about 350 to 1,900. The weighted ADT on these roads was about 1,910 and 1,000, respectively. It is estimated to grow at a rate of 3.6% p.a. over the next 24 years. This is below the trend of about 5% during the last 8 years. On the Canal Roads, the weighted ADT in 1971 was about 140. In their present condition, these roads are frequently impassable in wet weather. Improvement should encourage fur- ther traffic increases, therefore, the growth rate has been estimated at 5% p.a. B. Benefits from the Project 5.03 The quantified benefits from the project are reduced transport costs on the 34 mi of highway to be improved. Benefits from the enforcement of vehicle weight regulations, feasibility studies, detailed engineering, organizational and operational improvements to the MiS, and transport plan- ning unit were not quantified, but they are justified based on the discussion in Chapter IV. The combined Internal Economic Return (IER) of the road im- provements is about 15% and the individual IERs for the project roads range  - 16 - from about 13% to 19%. The first year benefits for individual roads range from about 11% to 15%, indicating that timing is appropriate. Details are shown in Table 8. 5.04 The benefit-cost analysis is based on reduced vehicle operating costs and lower road maintenance costs. Reduced vehicle operating costs accrue from improvement in the riding surface and fewer speed changes, which are now caused by tight curves, narrow bridges, and interferences, such as bicycles and pedestrians. Details of vehicle operating costs are shown in Table 9. 5.05 Benefits due to time savings for passengers are substantial, espe- cially in the urban areas near Georgetown, but they have not been quantified. Nor has an allowance been made for reduction in the high rate of accidents in the congested sections of the project roads. For purposes of the analysis, financial costs were adjusted to exclude taxes; 5% was added to road improve- ment costs to allow for the value of the limited amount of land taken in road realignments and 10% was included for quantity contingencies. The analysis measured the benefits and costs associated with different types of improve- ment and only those which would yield the highest returns were incorporated in the final design. 5.06 A sensitivity analysis was made for those factors which were con- sidered to have a significant degree of uncertainty (Table 8). The most important are the rate of traffic growth and the construction cost estimate. A lowering of the traffic growth to about half the average growth assumed for the benefit-cost analysis would lower the benefits by about 25%. As- suming this reduction, the analysis would give an IER of about 10%. If the cost of construction rose by 15% and completion was delayed by a quarter of the original estimated construction time, the IER would be about 12%. The above discussions confirm that the project is justified. VI. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.01 During credit negotiations, the Government gave principal assur- ances that it will: (i) review and, if necessary, amend legislation on vehicle loads and dimensions, and enforce the legislation (para. 3.04); (ii) formulate by June 30, 1973 a highway maintenance program satisfactory to the Association and take the necessary steps (including provision of funds) to improve maintenance (para. 3.15);  - 17 - (iii) discuss and confirm, with the Association, the recommendations and timetable for the second phase of the management study; review the progress of the proposed improvements before the end of the assignment of the experts and assess the need for further consulting services; and make qualified counterparts available (para. 4.09); (iv) review, in consultation with the Association, the progress of transport planning before the end of the assignment of the transport economists and assess the need for further technical assistance; and make qualified counterparts available (para. 4.10); and (v) enforce existing regulations to keep the carriage- way of the project roads clear and to prevent strip development from the right-of-way (para. 5.01). 6.02 A condition of effectiveness of the credit is agreement by the UT,DP to provide a grant of US$1.2 million to finance the feasibility studies, consulting services, and technical assistance (para. 4.19). 6.03 Subject to agreement on the foregoing, the project constitutes a suitable basis for an IDA credit of US$4.4 million to the Government of Guyana on the usual terms.   TABLE 1 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Transport Operations of the Ministry of Communications by Mode. 1965-70 (thousands of passengers and tons of freight) Highways Ferries Railways Shipping Total All Modes Year Passengers Freight Passengers Freight Passengers Freight Passengers Freight Passengers Freight 1965 8 869 4,271 22,491 3,586 46,200 427 82,869 8,292 152,429 1966 11 718 4,742 22,504 3,127 50,700 433 86,565 8,313 16o,487 1967 12 632 5,088 15,684 3,122 45,900 446 87,513 8,668 1L9,729 1968 10 801 5,597 13,788 3,020 38,600 462 66,833 9,C89 120,022 1969 10 840 5,793 12,950 3,070 49,9C0 572 63,433 9,445 127,123 1970 9 617 6,174 9,940 3,206 37,700 505 57,812 9,891. 1C' 59 i/ Excludes data not available on operations of other Government-owned transport corporations and on private sector operators. Source: Ministry of Communications, October 19?1 April 6, 1972  TABLE 2 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA The Highway Network, 1970 (mi ) Type of Road Paved Gravel Earth Trails Total (Length) (Length) (Length) (Length) (Length) (%) Classification National Public 275 209 120 n.a. 604 Other 2/ n.a. 80 69 397 546 Sub-Total 275 289 189 397 1,150 74 Provincial Local Authority 16 n.a. 144 142 302 19 Urban Georgetown 43 n.a. n.a. n.a. 53 Other Cities 4 25 n.a. n.a. 58 Sub-Total 86 25 n.a. n.a. 111 7 Total 377 314 333 539 1,563 100 j Gazetted public roads maintained by MWHS. 2/ Roads, principally trails, maintained wholly by Government through local district administrations. Note: n.a. means not applicable. Source: Ministrv of Works, Hydraulics and Supply, October 1971 April 6, 1972  TABLE 3 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Vehicle Registrations, 1950, 1960,and 1965-70i' (units) Total Cars, Buses, Total Agricultural Tractors Vehicle Year Cars Buses Agricultural Tractors Trucks and Trucks _Motorcles Registrations 1950 3,372 7L 280 676 4,402 581 4,983 1960 8,933 119 5,230 3,378 17,660 3,513 21,173 1965 10,418 143 3,879 2,671 17,111 5,272 22,383 1966 12,191 15h 3,705 3,048 19,098 7,261 26,359 1967 13,207 166 3,994 3,206 20,573 8,141 28,71h 1968 IL,196 171 4,363 3,390 22,120 9,021 31,lLl 1969 16,338 206 4,889 3,956 25,389 10,387 35,776 1970 18,095 242 5,553 4,377 28,267 11,872 40,139 Annual Growth Rates in %: 1960-1965 3 L -6 -5 -1 9 1 1965-1970 12 11 7 10 10 18 12 Compositions in % in 1965 and 1970 without Motorcyles: 1965 61 1 22 16 100 n.a. n.a. 1970 64 1 20 15 100 n.a. n.a. 1/ Includes scrapped vehicles, and therefore, the actual numbers in service are less than those registered. Note: n.a. means not applicable. Source: 1950 and 1960-68 statistics from Ministry of Works, Hydrau!ics and Supply. 1969-70 figures from Licensing Division, Ministry of Finance, October 1971 April 6, 1972  TABLE 4 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Revenues from Use and Ownership of Motor Vehicles. 1966-70 (G$) Import Duties Motor Motor Vehicle Vehicles 1/ FUel 1/ Vehicle Ordinance 2/ Years and Parts Tires Lubricants Gasoline Diesel Licenses Payments Tolls Total 1966 3,264,361 588,553 213,499 2,146,489 12,668 800,038 126,957 n.a. 7,152,565 1967 3,229,617 560,025 258,963 2,193,867 12,662 1,197,316 124,207 n.a. 7,576,657 1968 3,736,298 789,457 253,600 2,079,492 38,809 1,407,352 132,627 29,849 8,467,484 3/ 3/ 1969 4,091,924 817,471 125,964 2,360,0007 48,O000 1,460,280 184,926 514,353 9,602,918 1970 3,878,657 720,379 196,363 2,224,000- 51,360 2,091,574- 514,972-f 556,410 10,233,715 1/ Assumes 80% of tota1 consumption used in motor vehicles. 2/ Includes fees for drivers' licenses, certificates of vehicle fitness, etc. 3/ Import duties were lowered in 1969 for imports from Caribbean Free Trade Associatior countries. However, an internal consumption tax of about an equal amoufit was substituted. Figures are an estimate of combined import duty and consumption tax, based on G$6.64 per barrel on gasoline and G$.82 per barrel on diesel. 4/ Increase due to change in tax rates. 5/ Sharp increase due to change in tax rates and fees and intensified collection. Note: n.a. means not applicable. Source: Ministry of Finance, October 1971 April 6, 1972  TABLE 5 APPRAISAL OF A HIGEWAY PROJECT GUYANA Actual and Projected Expenditures on National and Urban Roads, FY 1966 - FY 1976 -/ -/ (G$ thousand) Construction Fiscal Foreign 14/ Years Local Aid Y Total Maintenance Urban Roads - Total Actual 1966 n.a. n.a. 7,660_/ 1,000 280 8,940 1967 n.a. n.a. 8,150_/ 1,000 300 9,450 1968 n.a. n.a. 12,060 5/ 1,240 320 13,620 1969 4,640 8,140 12,780 1,210 340 14,330 1970 6,790 3,950 10,740 1,570 350 12,660 Projected 1971 6,400 3,200 9,600 1,520 360 11,480 1972 6,4oo 1,600 8,ooo 1,600 370 9,970 1973 4,400 9,700 14,100 1,700 380 16,180 1974 7,800 17,300 25,100 1,800 390 27,290 1975 8,500 13,700 22,200 1,800 400 24,400 1976 4,100 5,400 9,500 1,900 410 11,810 1/ Data for provincial roads is not available. Excludes fixed costs of permanent work force. / Includes estimates for proposed hiahway project. 4/ Georgetown and New Amsterdam, capital and recurrent expenditures. 5/ No breakdown in local financing and foreign aid available. Based on tentative plans now under consideration. Note: n.a. means not available. Source: Ministry of Works, Hydraulics and Supply and Ministry of Economic Dpvelopvent, October 1971 April 6, 1972  TABLE 6 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Proposed Design Standards for Project Roads Urban Rural Type of Characteristics Unit Areas Areas Surface Geometric Design Standards Speed mph 30 50 n.a. Pavement - width ft 22 20-221/ n.a. Shoulders - width do 6-8 4-6? / n.a. Minimum radius of curvature do 760 760 n.a. Stopping sight distance do 350 350 n.a. 3/ Right-of-way - width do 80 1303 n.a. Structural Design Features Maximum axle-load lbs 185000 n.a. Bridge loading n.a. AASHO E20 n.a. Pavement Surface West Coast Road n.a. n.a. n.a. Asphalt concrete and sand asphalt West Bank Road n.a. n.a. n.a. Bituminous double surface treatment Canal Roads n.a. n.a. n.a. Bituminous double surface treatment 1/ 20 ft on sections on Canal Roads for present traffic under 300 vpd. 2/ Width of shoulders varies according to traffic and anticipated degree of slow moving traffic and pedestrians. 3/ Due to location of adjoining canals, the right-of-way will be reduced for the Canal Roads. Note: n.a. means not applicable. Source: Ministry of Works, Hydraulics and Supply and De Leuw Cather, October 1971 April 6, 1972  TABLE 7 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Projected Weighted Average Daily Traffic on Project Roads (units) Total West Coast Road West Bank Rc,d CSLa'a Roads All Year Cars'/ Trucks_/ Tota. Oars.i/ Trucksw! Total Cars'- TruckslY Total Roads 1971 1,480 430 1,910 680 320 1,000 70 70 140 3,050 1976 1,766 513 2,279 811 382 1,g93 90 89 175 3,651 1980 2,034 591 2,625 934 440 1,374 138 L05 27' 4,216 1990 2,896 842 3,738 1,330 626 1,956 177 12 354 6,O)48 1995 3,455 1,004 4,459 1,587 747 2,3)4 226 226 452 7,245 1/ Averages are based on levels of traffic for various sections on each rcad weighted by length of the sections. 2/ Includes hire cars. _/ Includes buses; due to the general use of hira cars, Tases represent orny a small fraction of traffic. Source: Ministry of Works, Hydraulics ar.d Supply, De leaw Gather, and Mission Estimates, October 197 April 6, 1972  TABLE 8 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA First Year Returns and Internal Economic Returns on Project Roads Internal Econamic Returns Cost Overrun by 15% and Completion First Delayed 25% Benefits Year Beyond Orig- Increased Benefits De- Roads Returns Most Likely inal Estimate by 25% creased by 25% (%)T (%) West Coast 10.7 12.6 11.3 16.7 9.5 West Bank 13.1 14.8 11.3 19.5 10.1 Canal 14.7 19.2 16.4 24.7 14.O All Roads 12.2 14.6 1u.6 19.0 10.0 Source: Mission Estimates, October 1971 ADril 6, 1972  TABLE 9 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Vehicle Operating Costs by Type of Road and Traffic Flow (Go per Vehicle Mile) Traffic Costs Type of Road Speed Flow Hire Cars Trucks (mph) Improved Smooth 30 Uninterrupted 11 22 Smooth 50 Uninterrupted 11 26 Unimproved Unpaved 20 Uninterrupted 17 40 Unpaved 30 Uninterrupted 17 37 Smooth 30 to Change speed 12 31 15 to once per mile 30 Smooth 30 to Change speed 13 40 15 to twice per mile 30 Source: De Leuw Cather and Mission Estimates, October 1971 Apri1 6, 1972   ANNEX A Page 1 APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Central Transport Planning Unit - Summary of Proposed Work Program 1. First Two Years (a) Study and collect transport data: (i) Identify principal data available and required; (ii) Review and establish means and frequency of data collection; and (iii) Collect (supervise collection of) and process data. (b) Analyze transport demand and project principal passenger and com- modity flows, taking into account general growth trends and likely areas of new development. (c) Determine costs and evaluate services of transport modes, including identification of major bottlenecks. (d) Review alternatives available among transport modes: (i) New technologies; (ii) New intermodal traffic combinations; and (iii) Shift from one mode to another under alternative investment or policy decisions. (e) Project traffic for each transport mode under alternative assump- tions on available services, based on (a) through (e) above. (f) Identify high priority transport investments (including 200 mi of road). (g) Prepare and/or supervise feasibility studies for high priority transport investments. (h) Review major transport policy issues:  ANNEX A Page 2 (i) Pricing (including policies of publicly-owned transport, taxation level, and transport subsidies); (ii) Entry conditions and regulations for private operators, and terms of competition between public and private operators; and (iii) Management of public sector operations. (i) Draft a comprehensive transport plan, with recommendations on investments and policies. 2. Permanent (a) Review and supervise collection of transport data; (b) Identify priority transport investment projects, and prepare and/or supervise feasibility studies; (c) Review and up-date major transport policy issues.  ANNEX B APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT GUYANA Estimated Schedule of Disbursements IBRD/IDA Fiscal Cumulative Disbursemrent Year and Quarter at end of Quarter US9. thousand) 1972/1973 September 30, 1972 40 December 31, 1972 380 March 31, 1973 570 June 30, 1973 830 1973/1974 September 30, 1973 1,210 December 31, 1973 1,630 March 31, 1974 2,210 June 30, 1974 2,770 1974/1975 September 30, 1974 3,140 December 31, 1974 3,570 March 31, 1975 3,920 June 30, 1975 4,150 1975/1976 September 30, 1975 4,200 December 31, 1975 4,270 March 31, 1976 4,320 June 30, 1976 4,400 Source: Mission Estimates, October 1971 April 6, 1972   GUYANA APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT ORGANIZATION OF ROADS DIVISION OF MINISTRY OF WORKS, HYDRAULICS AND SUPPLY M.. ist- of W.A.. 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