India - Population Project

CIRCULATiNG COPY RESTRICTED D TO BE RETURNED TO REPORTS DESK Report No. P-1070 FILE GuPY This report is for offlcial use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized organizations or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR A POPULATION PROJECT May 17, 1972  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPPMNT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOiM}ENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR A POPULATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to India in an amount in various currencies equivalent to US $21.2 million on standard terms to help finance a population project in the States of Mysore and Uttar Pradesh. The project would be financed jointly with Sweden, which would make available a grant in Kronor for the equivalent of US $10.6 million. The Association would act as executing agency, with responsibility for project supervision and for disbursement of its credit and the Swedish grant. PART I - INTRODUCTION 2. This credit would be the Bank Group's first lending operation in India for family planning. The Government of India (GOI) has adopted national family planning policy as an integral part of its development planning, and an elaborate multi-disciplinary organization exists for coordination, guidance and services both at the Center and in the States. Accomplishments so far are considerable, but following a surge of activities in the middle 1960s, program performance over recent years has been levelling off. The project, experimental in nature, is aimed at assisting the GOI in making their family planning program more effective. 3. My Report and Recommendation on a proposed credit for the Seventh Industrial Imports Credit Project will be distributed before the end of this fiscal year. If approved by you, these two credits would complete the FY 1972 lending program for India, totalling US $60 million in Bank lending and US $412 million in IDA credits (of which US $158 million would be subject to IDA replenishment). 4. In FY 1973, I expect to present you with recommendations on lending for projects which will reflect priorities established by the Government of India in several sectors. They would include lending for power transmission and telecommunications, as well as several operations in agriculture - irrigation, agricultural credit and regulated agricultural markets. I also expect to recommend further lending for increasing capacity for the manufacture of fertilizers. Plans are fairly well advanced for assistance to small industrial firms, in keeping with the importance the GOI pays to industry. This would be the Bank Group's first operation in this field in India, as would also be a planned credit for an urban water supply and sewerage project. There is also a possibility that FY 1973 lending will include lending for urban development. 5. Since 1949, the Bank has made 40 loans to India, amounting to US $1,111.2 million, and the Association 42 credits amounting to US $1,740.0 million, both net of cancellations. A summary statement of loans and credits as of April 30, 1972, is in Annex I, together with comments on the status of disbursements of certain loans and credits.  - 2 - 6. Since 1957, IFC has made 13 investments in India totalling US $42.3 million, of which US $3.9 million has been repaid, US $5.9 million sold and US $6.3 million cancelled or terminated. Of the balance, US $18.0 million represents loans and US $8.2 million equity. The largest commitment to date has been US $18.9 million to Zuari Agro-Chemicals Limited for a fertilizer plant in Goa. A summary statement of IFC investments as of April 30, 1972 is in Annex I. 7. The population project was prepared jointly with the GOI, the State Governments of iMysore and Uttar Pradesh and the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA), and appraised in July and October 1971. In January, 1972 a mission visited India to develop a specific component of the project dealing with nutrition. Negotiations were conducted in Washington from April 26 through May 4L, 1972. The Borrower was represented by Mr. R.N. Madhok, Additional Secretary, Department of Family Planning, Mr. D.N. Chaudri, Director, Department of Family Planning, Mr. S. Guhan, Special Assistant to Planning Minister, and Dr. L.V. Phatak, Commissioner for Family Planning. The Government of Mysore was represented by Mr. B.S. Hanuman, Health Secretary and Mr. P.R. Desai, Director Health, and the Government of Uttar Pradesh was represented by Dr. J.K. Anand, Deputy Director Health, Mr. B. Narain, Finance Secretary, and Mr. S.P. Pande, Health Commissioner. Mr. C. Lidgard, Economic Counsellor, Swedish Embassy, and Mrs. B. Johansson, Mr. K. Markensten and Mr. 0. Poluha of SIDA, represented the Government of Sweden. PART II - THE ECONOMY 8. The year 1971/72 was one of the most difficult India has faced since Independence. Resources, physical as well as fiscal, were greatly strained by events in East Pakistan, the influx of nearly ten million refugees, and the outbreak of hostilities in December, 1971. The economy responded as well as might be expected to this challenge; the increased fiscal burden was largely met, the resources required for refugee relief and defense were mobilized in time, and prices and the balance of payments were kept under control. 9. The economy continued to grow during 1971/72, but at a pace slower than envisaged in the Fourth Five-Year Plan. The growth of national income in 1969/70 came to somewhat less than the Plan target of 5.5 percent and, in 1970/71, the rate will probably be a little less than 5 percent. Indications for 1971/72 are that the rate of growth will be of the order of 4 percent. Sectorial contributions to the growth of national income are not in accordance with the pattern envisaged by the Plan. While the output of foodgrains has been increasing sharply, industry appears to have relapsed into relative stagnation. 10. Despite all the difficulties faced in 1971/72, India was able to maintain the pace of public sector development at about the planned level in financial terms, and this with only moderate inflation. But satisfaction over this achievement has to be tempered, since it was accompanied by a continuing low level of investment in private industry. In aggregate terms, there has been a slight decline in the rate of savings to NDP during the first three years of the Plan (8.4 percent of NDP in 1968/69 against an estimated 8.2 percent in 1971/72), on account of the low saving in the public  - 3 - sector. Public sector outlays have, therefore, been met to an extent larger than expected, by drawing on private savings. However, the Government of India expects domestic savings to increase to 9.5 percent and 10.2 percent of NDP in 1972/73 and 1973/74 respecti.vely3 large-ly owing to i.nxroved public sector savings - for which the 1972/73 bud-7et gives good hopes. During the first three years of the Plan, per capita income increased only by the equivalent of US $2.40 at constant prices Given tlhe small-ess of this increase, it is not suprising that i;; was entirely absorbed sy con;Twnption and that the savings ratio did not imp,rove. There is no doubt that in the long run, a slow-down of population growth, which would allow some acceleration in the growth of per capita income, would also help to raise the marginal rate of savings. 11. Net transfers from abroad are expected to decline slightly from 1.0 percent to 0.8 percent of NDP during the two remaining years of the Fourth Plan. It is hoped that Jn the fifth year of the Plan total investment would be about 11 percent of NDP as compared to about 13 percent postulated when the Plan was drawn. Contribution of net foreign assistance to total investment is unlikely to be much more than 7 percent in 1973/74. PART III - THE I\DIAN FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM 12. According to the 1971 census, the population of India was about 547 million and was growing by some 12 million people every year. The population has doubled since 1920, and if the present growth rate were unchanged, it would double again over the next 30 years only to reach 1.1 billion at the turn of the century. While the birth rate over recent decades has remained at about 40 per 1,000, a continuously declining mortality, now at 17 per 1,000, results in a growth rate of about 2.25 percent. The rapid growth of the population has an adverse effect on India's efforts to raise the welfare of its people; in the sixties, more than 60 percent of the growth in income has been absorbed by the increasing population. The net addition to the labor force (which totalled about 200 million in the late sixties) is about 4 million annually, of which 80 percent is in rural areas. No reliable information is available on the actual amount of unemployment or under-employment, but a rough estimate shows that to eliminate unemployment, about 40 million new jobs would have to be created in the 1971-75 period and about 75 million jobs over the next decade. 13. Since the early fifties, the GOI has become increasingly aware of the problems related to the rapid growth of population. The Government pro- claimed an official population policy in 1951, but it was only in the mid- sixties that this was translated into specific goals. In 1967, the Government decided to encourage couples in the reproductive ages (15-44), at present about 98 million couples, to adopt effective family planning, through activities which: (a) promote acceptance of the concept of the small family; (b) assure that all individuals have personal knowledge about family planning methods; and (c) make services and supplies readily available.  - 4 - In quantitative terms, the goal set by the GOI is to reduce by 1980 the birth rate to 2.5percent, and the growth rate to 1.5 percent. 14. The GOI has impressive achievements to its credit in the national family planning. Financed almost entirely by the GOI and implemented by the States, the program is integrated with the health services. An administra- tive machine of more than 60,000 people has been set up; a mass information campaign has been launched; an approach was introduced to provide services at central points for groups of villages; postpartum programs were initia- ted in selected large hospitals of several cities; and recently, a Pregnancy Termination Bill was passed. Sterilization (male and female), IDs and conventional contraceptives (mostly condoms) are the main famaily planning services offered. 15. In the five-year period 1966-67/1970-71, actual annual expenditure for the family planning program rose from about US $19 million equivalent to US $63 million equivalent. The nu1mber of new acceptors also increased over the same period, from about 2.4 million to some 3.8 million. However, while the average expenditure per 1,000 populations on the rise, the number of reported acceptors in the program has levelled off in the last year or two, and sterilizations and IUDs already show a downward trend. At present, about 11 percent of all couples are protected by contraceptive methods and the birth rate may have been reduced by at most three points, from 41 per 1,000 to 38 per 1,000. To reduce the population from an expec- ted total of 1.1 billion, if present trends continue, to 800 million in the year 2000, the percentage of couples practicing contraception will have to be increased to 50-60 percent by 1980, which will require a very effective program. 16. Several factors have contributed toward the recent levelling off. Attitudes toward family size, illiteracy, a large rural population and low standards of living interact in limiting total effective demand. Moreover, the supply of services is hampered by a scarcity of para-medical personnel at field levels and the low quality of their training. Also, a shift has occurred towards contraceptive methods which are generally considered to be less effective. But while these factors are clearly important, no compre- hensive analysis has been undertaken, to determine the relative importance of these and other factors, and thus to develop a strategy for improving the effectiveness of the program. The present project is designed to assist the GOI in this task. PART 3T - THE PROJECT 17. A report entitled "Appraisal Report of a Population Project, India" (PP-9b dated May 15, 1972) is being distributed separately. A credit and project summary is at Annex III. 18. The proposed five-year project is designed to assist the GO0 in developing a Management Information and Evaluation System (MIES) that would  meet the need for a systematic analysis of program data which would result in recommendations on a continuing basis for developing new approaches relevant to the whole program. Conceived as an applied research-oriented program, the project would cover five districts in NIysore, including Bangalore, and six districts in Uttar Pradesh, including Lucknow, with a combined population of about 20 million. In these two States, districts with varying conditions have been selected in order to produce performance data as representative as possible for varied conditions faced naturally by the Indian family planning program. A basic feature of the project is the establishment of two P ation Centers, one in Bangalore and the other in Lucknow, to develop the MIES, which will collect and analyze performance data (see also paragraph 21). These data will be generated from four main project activities: (a) An Urban Program would be tested in Bangalore and Lucknow. It will concentrate upon motivation and family planning services to recently delivered mothers, be they women who deliver in hospitals or at home. (b) An Optimal GOI Projram would also'be implemented throughout the project areas. By providing all the staff and facilities which the national family planning program would provide if it had sufficient resources, the effectiveness of the GOI pattern will be tested. This part of the project is intended to discover whether the present system could bring about the declines in fertility which are the targets of the program, and the reasons for success or failure. (c) An Intensive Rural Program would concentrate on recently delivered mothers in rural areas. It will test how additional inputs in parts of the project areas -- two districts each of Mysore and Uttar Pradesh -- may influence the effectiveness of the GOI pattern. The project areas selected will repre- sent different levels of socio-economic development. To support all these activities, the project would provide buildings and hostel accommodation for training of Auxiliary Nurse-lidwives (AN1iMs) and tutors in mid-wifery practice, delivery and child care, and rural health practice in each State. In all, the construction component of the project includes more than 1,500 buildings for administration, training and family planning services; and about 230 jeeps, ambulances, mini-buses and mobile vans. (d) Finally, a Nutrition Component, covering one district in Mysore and a area (a development block) in Uttar Pradesh, would be set up.  19. This component, experimental by design, has two objectives: (a) to determine the effect that improved nutrition for infants and mothers will have on the acceptance of family planning services, both directly as an incentive and indirectly via the effect of a decline in infant mortality on the desire for children; and (b) to test the best means of providing nutrition. This program would provide supplementary feeding for women during the last three months of pregnancy and the first six weeks of lactation, and to infants aged 6-24 months; the women would collect their weekly supply of food at selected sub-centers. In the first two years, this component would be tested in two blocks in Mysore and one block in Uttar Pradesh. On the basis of a joint review between Mysore, Sweden and the Association during the third year, the desirability and method of expanding these activities in Mysore to a district-wide basis would be determined. In Uttar Pradesh, the project provides funds for a modest expansion beyond one block if the mid-term review should determine that this is technically and administratively feasible without prejudice to other project components. Project Implementation 20. Project implementation would be the responsibility of the two States, in each of which a Governing Board is being set up under the chairmanship of the Chief Secretary. This Board, which would meet quarterly, would be responsible for broad policy formulation, for reviewing progress of the family planning program and the construction program, and for approving suggestions for innovation and experimentation in project areas. Four groups in each State would be responsible for project execution, headed by a Project Family Planning Officer for the family planning program, a Nutrition Project Officer for the nutrition component, a Superintending Engineer for the Project Construction Unit, and the Director of the Population Center. The heads of these groups would be part of the Board, to which the Director of the Population Center would have a direct reporting relationship. For necessary coordination of project activities, a State Project Coordinator supported by adequate staff would be appointed, linked to the Office of the Secretary of Health. The Project Construction Unit will operate within each State Ministry of Health, and the Superin- tending Engineer in each, provided with adequate staff, will supervise the building program. The Chief Architect of the Central Public Works Depart- ment, OI, will serve as a consultant to each governing Board for the coordination of the physical and financial elements of the project.  -7- Population Centers 21. Each Population Center would cover the project area in its State. Its basic functions would be to develop the experimental design of the project, and to devise and implement a system for the collection and analysis of data, in order to guide program operations and evaluate the program. Research would also be initiated, by the Centers or appropriate agencies, to assess existing program components and to test new program elements; and persomnel will be trained in data collection and analysis. The Centers will be headed by persons experienced in evaluation and manage- ment methodology. The Head of each Center will be supported by four assistant directors and a staff of 20-30 research assistants and investigators. To initiate and support the Population Centers, the services of two Indian management institutes will be employed. These institutes have been selected on the basis of their management capability and orientation, and GOI has agreed to provide direct support to each institute to make it more effective. Project Costs and Financine 22. The total costs of the project excluding land, are estimated at about US $32 million equivalent. The land would be provided by the GOI, which would also bear the cost of recurrent expenditures in project areas over the project period estimated at about US $12.5 million equivalent, mainly for salaries of personnel. This contribution from the GOI to project-related activities would be part of expenditures to the tune of about US $500 million equivalent, which the GOI would spend during the project period on family planning activities, of which about US $100 million equivalent would be spent in the two States of Mysore and Uttar Pradesh. 23. The foreign exchange component of less than US $2 million includes construction, furniture and equipment costs (US$1.0 million), technical assistance and some technical equipment for the Population Centers. Of the total cost, about US $12.6 million (40%) is for civil works; about US $3.85 million (12%) for equipment and furniture; about US $0.8 million (2.5%) for the GOI's direct support to the Indian management institutes to be employed by Mysore and Uttar Pradesh; about US $1.9 million (6%) for technical assistance to Mysore and Uttar Pradesh; about US $0.85 million (2.5%) for vehicles; about US $2.1 million (6.5%) for nutrition; about US $4.6 million (14.5%) for incremental recurrent costs; and about US $5.1 million (16%) for contingencies. 24. Sweden and the Association would Jointly finance the total project cost, pari-passu, on a one-to-two ratio. Sweden would thus participate with the equivalent of US $10.6 million -- as a grant -- and the Association would extend a credit of US $21.2 million equivalent. In broad terms, the Joint-financing arrangement would cover expenditures under the project for three main purposes, namely:  - 8 - (a) investments in plant (buildings, furniture, equipment, vehicles) to complete and supplement the GOI pattern in project areas; (b) the nutrition component; and (c) incremental recurrent costs for the innovative parts of the project (the intensive rural component and the Population Centers). One result of tho project is a commitment by the GOI to speed up its expenditures in the project areas to ensure that the level of inputs envi- saged in the GOI plan is achieved more rapidly than in non-project districts. This commitment from the GOI would not require it to divert funds out of its regular budget for non-project areas, and would thus not discriminate against the provision of family planning services outside the project areas. 25. The nutrition component, the intensive rural component and the Population Centers would all incur costs incremental to the GOI's regular budget for family planning services and these costs would be jointly financed 100 percent by Sweden and the Association. The nutrition component inevitably has a high proportion of recurrent expenditures. Because it is an experiment, there is no guarantee that it will prove successful and continue beyond the project period. Similarly, the intensive rural compo- nent and the MIES will involve expenditures strictly related to basic features of the experimental design of the project. In these circums- tances, and until project evaluation determines how permanent all these "experiment-related" expenditures are to be, the financing provided by Sweden and the Association will cover these costs; once project results are known, their policy implications for the whole national family planning program can be reviewed by the GOI with appropriate adjustments in budgetary allocations from its own normal resources. Procurement 26. The building program, phased over four years, contains more than 1,500 buildings widely dispersed over a large area. Its execution, there- fore, would not be suitable for international competitive bidding. The same would apply to furniture, which is of unsophisticated design and in ample supply locally. However, any contracts for equipment estimated to cost the equivalent of US $100,000 or more would be awarded on the basis of interna- tional competitive bidding, with domestic manufacturers accorded a preferen- tial margin equal to 15 percent of the c.i.f. costs of competing imports or to the existing rate of duty, whichever is lower. As to vehicles, the Indian Family Program already employs a number of vehicles of the types which would be procured under the proposed credit. It would be in the two State Government's best interest to adhere to these types, for reasons of standardization of spare parts and availability of servicing facilities and they will be procured through normal commercial channels.  -9- Justification of the Project 27. Itis particularly difficult to evaluate the demographic and socio- economic effects of this project because of its experimental and innovative nature; like other research, its socio-economic benefits will depend on the implementation of the findings that emerge. It is likely that results will more than justify the expenditure, not only directly but particularly in terms of the "spin-off" or demonstration effects on the Indian program as a whole. In addition to improving the overall conduct of the Indian family planning program, the project is expected to have large social benefits -- such as improving the health and welfare of mothers and children, improving the physical and mental development of the population through better nutrition in the critical first years of life, etc. In addition, the direct and quantifiable effects of this project are estimated as follows: in Mysore as a result of the project about 2.3 million births are expected to be prevented between 1973 and 2000; in Uttar Pradesh, the corresponding figure is about 1.5 million births. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMETS AND AUTHORITY 28. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Association, the draft Joint Financing Agreement between India, the Kingdom of Sweden and the Association, the draft Mysore Agreement between the Kingdom of Sweden, the State of Mysore and the Association, the draft Uttar Pradesh Agreement between the Kingdom of Sweden, the State of Uttar Pradesh and the Association, the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement and the text of a Resolution approving the proposed Development Credit are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 29. The Joint Financing Agreement contains provisions similar to other such agreements executed on the occasion of joint financing with Sweden of other projects. The Mysore and the Uttar Pradesh Agreements follow the pattern of agreements with other States of India executed on the occasion of other projects. To the extent possible, the legal documents incorporate the terms of references for different tasks to be undertaken by third parties in carrying out the Project. 30. I am satisfied that the proposed development credit will comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 31. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Development Credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments May 17, 1972  Annex I Page 1 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of April 30, 1972) Loan or Undis- Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA bursed Loans/Credits fully disbursed 876.4 1,115.6 307-IN 1961 IISCO Coal Mining 19.5 2.2 414-IN 1965 ICICI Industry DFC VI 49.8 4.0 89-IN 1966 India Beas Equipment 23.0 7.7 515-IN 1967 ICICI Industry DFC VII 25.0 3.5 614-IN 1969 India Tarai Seeds 13.0 10.5 615-IN 1969 India Telecommunications III 27.5 14.2 153-IN 1969 India Telecommunications III 27.5 o.4 176-IN 1970 India Kadana Irrigation 35.0 29.6 683-IN 1970 ICICI Industries DFC VIII 40.0 19.6 191-IN 1970 India Gujarat Agric. Credit 35.0 32.8 203-IN 1970 India Punjab Agric. Credit 27.5 27.5 226-IN 1971 India Andhra Pradesh 24.4 23.3 230-IN 1971 India Agro-Aviation 6.o 6.o 241-IN 1971 India Telecommunications IV 78.0 78.0 242-IN 1971 India Power Transmission II 75.0 75.0 249-IN 1971 India Haryana Agric. Credit 25.0 24.8 250-IN 1971 India Tamil Nadu Agric. Credit 35.0 35.0 264-IN 1971 India Cochin II Fertilizer 20.0 19.6 276-IN 1971 India Wheat Storage 5.0 5.0* 268-IN 1971 India Pochampad Irrigation 39.0 35.2 789-IN 1971 ICICI Industry DFC IX 60.0 58.6 278-IN 1971 India Mysore Agric. Credit 40.0 40.0* 279-IN 1971 India Gorakhpur Fertilizer 10.0 10.0 280-IN 1971 India Railways XI 75.0 63.7 293-IN 1972 India Maharashtra Agric. Credit 30.0 30.0* 294-IN 1972 India Bihar Agric. Markets 14.0 14.0* Total (less cancellation) 1,111.2 1,740.0 670.2 of which has been repaid 410.6 .7 Total now outstanding 700.6 1,739.3 Amount sold 110.2 of which has been repaid 108.8 1.4 Total now held by Bank & IDA 699.2 1,739.3 Total undisbursed 112.6 557.6 670.2  ANNEX I Page 2 B. STATENENT OF IFC INVEST4ENTS (As of April 30, 1972) Amount US $ 1bllion Year Company Loan Equitv Total 1959 Republic Forge Company Ltd. 1.5 - 1.5 1959 Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. 0.9 - 0.9 1960 Assam Sillimanite Ltd. 1.4 - 1.4 1961 K.S.B. Pumps Ltd. 0.2 - 0.2 1963-66 Precision Bearings India Ltd. 0.7 0.3 1.0 1964 Fort Gloster Industries Ltd. 0.8 0.4 1.2 1964 Mahindra Ugine Steel Co. Ltd. 2.3 1.0 3.3 1964 Lakshmi Machine lWorks Ltd. 1.0 0.3 1.3 1967 Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. 1.0 0.1 1.1 1967 Indian Explosives Ltd. 8.6 2,9 11.5 1969-70 Zuari Agro-Chemicals Ltd. 15.1 3.8 18.9 TOTAL, 33.5 8.8 42.3 Less sold, repaid and cancelled 15.5 o.6 16.1 Now held 18.0 8.2 26.2 Undisbursed 5.1  Annex I Page 3 Co PROCTS IN EXECUTION 1. Of the undisbursed loans, the longest outstanding is Loan 307-IN of 1961 to the Indian Imn Steel Corporation (IISCO) for the development of its collieries, A memorandum to the Executive Directors of July 9, 1970 (R70-135) proposing to postpone the closing date to June 30, 1974 explained the technical and other problems which beset this project. It is anticipated that disbursements will be completed by the revised closing date of June 30, 1974. 2. It was agreed in 1970 that the balance of Credit 89-IN (Beas Equipment Project) should be allocated to Stage II of the project and major purchases will be made later this year. As to the Taral Seeds Project (614-IN), technical considerations regarding required machinery caused some delay but tenders have now been offered and disbursements should now accelerate. 3. Under the Eadana Irrigation Project (176-IN), requests for reimbursement of civil works expenditures are now being received more regularly since work on the dam resumed with departmental force account labor following suspension of the main contractor. Disbursements of the Bank's recent loans to ICICI (683-IN and 789-IN) have not kept uip with original forecasts and closing dates have had to be postponed. These loans were affected by the 1966-68 recession which lengthened the intervals between ICICIls approval of sub-projects and actual commitment of disbursement of Bank's funds. More rapid disbursement is IIow expected. 4. Gujarat (Credit 191-ITT), Punjab (Credit 203-IN) and Andhra Pradesh (Credit 226-IN) are showing slo,m-r progress than anticipated I--t; the'e 'aas been a recent accelerationi in disbursements in respect of the n,nor irrigation components of all but the two most recently approved of these projects. This trend is expected to continue. A major cause of delay results from tractor procurement problems, Finally, for the Agro-Aviation Project (23iO-:N), disbursements are about nine moLths behind schedule, as prequal'ificat:ion of aircraft supplies is still ottstanding.  ANNEX II C00UTM DATA COUM:R; India AUNA: 3.268,580 k,2 POPMTXWj 560 sillien 1972 (mid-year) 3SITn: 172 persons/k2 Rate of srowth 2.25Y 1961 - 1971 Crude birti rate (er 1,000) (est.) 38 1971 I Crude death rate (per 1,000) (est.) 17 1971 Populatim per physician (est.) 4,000 1971 Infant mortality (per 1,000 (est.) 100-120 1971 Populatim per hospital bed 1,826 1968/69 lve births) NUTUTITU: RDSI Caloric Intake as % of requirats 83 1960 - 1969 Adult literacy rate () (est.) 41L/ Per capita protein intake (gres per day) 55 1960 - 1969 Primry scbsol enrolment ) 79 1969/70 GCU EATIOSAL MMNICT, 1970/71; US $ lu S ate *f arouth a L ) GOP at market prices 52,770 100.0 1961/62 - 1965/6e 1945/86 - 1969/70 1970/71 Gross itwesut 7,520 14.3 Groes natiomal savings 6,480 12.3 2 .5 2 . 9 4. 7 Reource Gap 680 1.3 OUTPUT, jAFR MD Volue ddo Labor Ftrce Productim er trlker OWCTIvrf. W199U70: s $ USl millima uS o f satioa averae Agriclture 21,370 48.2 128 71.9 167 67 Industry 9,260 20.9 21 11.8 441 177 Services 13,740 30.9 29 16.3 474 190 Total/Average 44 370 100.0 L 100.0 29 PUBLIC FNAUCII. 1970/71:' Canter and Stta Center Is billan % of GD? l " of GD, average *a billion % of GDP S of GD, average 1968/69-1970/71 1968/69-1970/71 Current receipts 59.96 15.0 14.8 37.85 9.5 9.3 Current ezpenditures (mcl. trasfers) 58.48 14.7 14.5 25.74 6.5 6.5 Current surplus 1.48 0.3 0.3 12.11 3.0 2.8 Capital expeditures 15.50 3.9 3.4 9.69 2.4 1.8 Uxterual assistance (net) 3.44 0.9 1.2 3.44 0.9 1.2 PRICES AND CUDIT: Wholesle Prie ade (1961/62 - 100) Net Dank Credit to Crercil Sector index S of change fR billi of chne Ulnd of 1969 172.0 - 14.53 - Knd of 1970 181.1 5.2 18.72 28.8 2nd of 1971 186.0 2.7 17.80 (-)4.9 February 1971 181.4 February 1972 190.1 4.7 SALAICK 0F PAIMIXTS': /6MUCU S f7POK C Avera/e 1968/69 UI- 1970/71, 19"f69 1:6b0/ 1970 71 US I Exports of goods 1,810 1,8" 1,950 Jute manufactures 270 14 Imports of gode 2,545 2,109 2,225 TS Is8 10 Trade balaare - 735 - 225 - 275 Cotten textiles 151 8 IIYS (aet)!/ 25 13 - 8 Ironore 131 7 Resource sa (deficit * .) - U2 - 212 - 283 Enieering good 119 6 Others 1.022 iL5. interest Payments (net) 185 - 192 . 214 Total 1.881 100 Other factor peymnts (net) - 21 - 40 - 20 Net trasfers e 8 + 79 + 83 Usm4 DEBT o MARC 31. 19711/: Balanceaon current account -835 - 365 .- 434 US 8 ln Official aid (incl. grants) Repayable In foreign currency 7,371 Disbursemente +1,259 +1,188 + 1,096 Repayable through export of goods 663 Amortization - 315 - 357 - 387 Tbtal ontetdi 8,034 Direct foreign invesst men Other capital (mat) ) - 58 - 263 - 512 DET 81131CR TIO. 1970/71: 30.8 per entS' Ali other items A eIBD/D1A LENDING, D SCU 31, 1971 US 8 smx Icrease in offictil rarvae IU1D IDA (increase * - - 51 - 203 + 237 Outstsmdig and disbursed 461.6 1,157.0 Udisbursed 129.7 408.1 Mareb Kerch March March 591.3 1,565.7 1969 1970 1971 1972 Grome resrves (end of year) 769 1,095 1,052 1,265 get reserves (and of year) 429 912 1,052 1,265 Rate of bcemae MIT AID TRAKSFRS:(US (U8 S dllt) Prior to Decemer 1971: US 8 1.00 - Rs 7.5 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 s 1.00 - US $ 0.133333 Gross disbursements 1,598 1,259 I,1m 1,096 1,123 After Doc er 1971: US $ 1.00 R is 7.27927 Debt service 44 500 550 400 626 Re 1.00 - US $ 0.137376 Net transfer 1,154 759 638 496 497 */ Populatio of 10 years ad over. b/ Official estimate; probably o_restimtes actual earolmet of age group 6 - 11 by one-fifth. c/ Groes domestic product at factor coot. d/ For details see Appendix Tables 3.12, 3.13, 3.14 and 4.1 of IBRD Kconomc Report, 1972. T/ Ihe figures for no-factor service paymets, which are token from the Reserve Bak's balance of payments estimates, appear to be substantially incomplete. f/ Provided by Govorim t of India, Ministry of Fiunace. A/ ortization and interest payments as a percestage of merchandise exports.  Annex III Page 1 CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY POPULATION PROJECT Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiaries: State Governments of Mysore and Uttar Pradesh. Amount: US $21.2 million equivalent. Terms: Standard. Project: To help finance - jointly with a Swedish grant in Kronor equivalent to US $10.6 million - an experimental, research-oriented population project in selected areas in the States of Mysore and Uttar Pradesh covering a population of about 20 million. Relending Terms: The proceeds of the Credit, except for US $0.8 million which GOI will make available to institutes providing services to the Population Centers in Mysore and Uttar Pradesh, will be provided as a grant to the State Governments of Mysore and Uttar Pradesh.  Annex III Page 2 Total Project Cost: (US $ million) Local Lomei Total I. Civil Works (a) Mysore 4.90 0.40 5.30 (b) Uttar Pradesh 6.70 o.60 7.30 12.60 II. Equipment, Furniture (a) Mysore 1.70 - 1.70 (b) Uttar Pradesh 2.15 - 2.15 3.85 III. Vehicles (a) Mysore 0O45 - 0.45 (b) Uttar Pradesh 0.40 - 040 0.85 IV. Technical Assistance (a) India 0.45 0.35 0.80 (b) Mysore 0.79 Ooll 0.90 (c) Uttar Pradesh 0.789 0.11 1.00 2.70 V. Nutrition (a) Mysore 1.90 - 1o90 (b) Uttar Pradesh 0,20 - 0,20 2.10 VI. Incremental Recurrent Costs (a) Mysore 2.80 - 2.80 (b) Uttar Pradesh 1.80 - 1.80 4.60 VII. Unallocated (a) Mysore 2.15 - 2 15 (b) Uttar Pradesh 2.95 - 2?95 5.10 Total 30.23 1.57 31.80 Financed by: IDA Credit 20.15 1.05 21.20 Swedish Grant 10.08 0.52 10.60 Total 30.23 1.57 31.80  Annex III Page 3 Project Implementation Period: 1972/1978 Estimated Disbursements: (US $ million) 1973 l974 1975 1976 1977 1978 IDA Credit 2.01 5.20 5.74 4.L1 3.12 0.72 Swedish Grant 1.01 2.60 2.87 2.20 1.56 0.36 Total 3.02 7.80 8.61 6.61 4.68 1.08 Procurement Arrangements: Contracts for civil works, furniture or vehicles not suitable for international com- petitive bidding. Contracts for civil works will be procured on the basis of local competitive bidding; to the extent practicable, such works will be grouped and tenders will be invited for every group and each work separately, at the bidders' option. Furniture will be procured through regular commercial channels in accordance with the ordinary procedures of the respective State. Vehicles will be procured through regular commercial channels, after obtaining several quotations from suppliers who offer assurances that they will provide adequate service, including availability of spare parts. Contracts for equipment estimated to cost the equivalent of US $100,000 or more to be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding with domestic manu- facturers accorded a preferential margin equal to 15 percent of the c.i.f. costs of competing imports or to the existing rate of duty, whichever is lower. Economic Rate of Return: Not possible to quantify. Appraisal Report: PP-9b, Yay 15, 1972.  J;MMU & KASHMIR BHUTAN A S \EG~L r / RLSLL ^s 'ED^. <iEAST A PAKSTAN(Z' >,,, g ; > 9 9 T u v ~~~~~~~~~~~~~I N D I A POPULATION PROJECT ;;;;s t 1 ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~* NATIONAL CAPITAL DECEMBER 1971 99232080 DECEMBER 1971 IIt LY O ys IR3O  MAP 2 UTTAR PRADESH STATE POPULATION (88.4 MILLION) .-. -.- . -STATE ROUNDARY UTTADRKASI4 GARHWAL ;j. ......... DIVISIONAL BOUNDARY X D St-ii ., UTTARk,S,H- , DISTRICT 8OUNDARY / *27O-. .|. . 4 ,i.'sti ' TSHRI GARNWAL AsOLs lLUCKNOW DIVISION NAMES 1 MEERUT . ~ ~ ~~Ij~~~~AON ~~~DISTRICT NAMES . R i A "'H OI,.,, KUM3AON * POPULATION IN MILLIONS - - ~~~~~~~PITHORAGARi4 DENSITY OF POPULATION PER SOUARE MILE, . .... ... ...... ~ ~~~~~~~~~~ABOVE 1000 MUZAPPARNAGAl,TAL"'f5Nf*',"'