Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China : the role of labor markets and complementary education reforms

WPS3702 Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China: The Role of Labor Markets and Complementary Education Reforms * Fan ZHAI Asian Development Bank Thomas HERTEL Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University and World Bank Chapter 10 in Putting Development Back into the Doha Agenda: Poverty Impacts of a WTO Agreement, Thomas W. Hertel and L. Alan Winters (eds.) forthcoming from the World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3702, September 2005 The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org. * The authors acknowledge the comments of Will Martin and other participants in a World Bank workshop in the Hague, on December 2-4, 2004.  Abstract This paper offers an assessment of the implications of multilateral trade reforms for poverty in China. We do so by combining results from a global modeling exercise with a national CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model that features disaggregated households in both the rural and urban sectors. We examine two trade reform scenarios: one involving global trade liberalization, and one involving possible Doha Development Agenda reforms. Using the World Bank's $2/day poverty line, we find that multilateral trade reforms do in fact reduce poverty in China. The biggest reductions occur in the rural areas