Jordan - Current economic position and prospects

RESTRICTED Report No. EMA-37a This report is for official use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized organizations or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Gtoup authorization. The K anK Group does not accept responsioly for me accuracy or completeness or me report. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION MEMORANDUM ON THE CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF JORDAN May 21, 1971 Europe, Middle East and North Africa Department Currency Equivalents 1 Jordanian Dinar = 2.80 U.S. Dollars 1 U.S. Dollar. = 0.357 Jordanian Dinars TAPLE OF CONTENTS Page No.. Paragraphs BASIC DATA I. RECEN1T 'ECONCTeMIC AND POLITICAL SITUATION 1 1 - 7 II. PUBLIC FINANC7 AND DF'VEOPMENT EXPESNDITUR1 8 - 12 TTT. BATA \T OFr PAYMVNTS 3W - 15 . Må:1n i nfL t l ý.L i-- IV. ICNMIC nTTTDEVrAMTI AND .LV . *.AJ UL'J!'UV - L VJåiV 17,1VfI 11:ij1. AI'jvu PROSPECTS 11 16- 22 STATISTICAL APPENDIX This memorandum has been prepared by Mr. Fareed A. Atabani who visited Jordan in February 1971. It up-dates the report on "Current Lconomic "osition and Trosrects of Jordan" (mA-16a of December 18, 1969).  BASIC DATA West Bank East Bank Total Jordan Area 5,900 Km2 91,100 Km2 97,000 Km2 of whilch: cultivated 2,500 Km2 3,500 Km2 6,000 Km2 of which: irrigated 70 Km2 230 Km2 300 Km2 Population (estimate 1970) 850,000 1,400,000 2,250,000 of which: refugees 285,000 630,000 915,000 Rate of Growth about 3 percent per year Monev and Credit Dec. 1966 Dec. 1970 Rate of Increase per annum Total Money & Quasi Money Supply 75.8 129.2 14.5 nf whic'h: Timp and Saving pnosit. 19.8 23.7 ).7 Claims on the Private Sector 37.2 43.6 4.0 Central Governnent Operations (J million, 1966 1970 Do~mestic Reeu 31.0f 30.h Foreign Assistance 12.4 33.1 Ordinary Expenditure -39.0 -64.8 Development Expenditure -10.7 -18.1 Balance of Payments (JD million) Exports 10.4 12.4 Imports -6A7.-62 Invisibles (Net) 21.4 3.7 Current icouit Blalance -35.5 -4u.- ID)A PID-ion4 ( $- milion Dec -96 De- i AnC. -197M -Lý^~~ \ U %j, r1- ý L-"1 1 L i ELfL ei U V . U0 Disbursed 5.0 9.1 IMF Position Quota 13.0 23.0 Drawigs -- Foreign Exchange Reserves (JD million) 1966 1970 67.2 97.3 (12 months imports) (19 months imports) External Financial Assistance (JD million) Grants 14.8 33.4 Loans 2.7 1.6 Total 17.5~ 35.0  I. RECENT ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SITUATION 1. Before the Ara-Tael war of JTune1067, the nonomy of jorann achieved a high rate of growth. GNP grew by almost 10 percent per Furthermore this remarkable progress was accompanied by a substantially sIJdU.Le priceA. level ad, as a result~ o.S subsania f0reignLdJ a-. . L,-L, -' a surplus in the balance of payments. And, although foreign assistance continued to ve a major factor, the Goverment successfully reduced the reliance of the budget on external support as domestic receipts were gradually developed and were finan-ing an increaSing Mnale U Government expenditures. The Government was therefore able to channel a larger share of external aid to development projects. Horeover, the growth of exports and invisible receipts, particularly from tourism, more than compensated for any decline in foreign assistance. Tne prospects, on the eve of the 1967 war, were for a continued improvement in the Government's saving efrorts and performance, leading to a complete phasing out of foreign budget support by mid-seventies and a further improvement in the balance of payments position. Exterial assistance would then be completely channelled to finance the develop- ment effort. 2. The consequence of the 1967 war was to interrupt these favorable trends and to disrupt severely the growth of the most promising sectors - mainly agriculture, tourism, industry and mining. The loss of the West Bank, the frequent clashes across the Jordan river and the con- tinued inflow of refugees from the West Bank, had far reaching effects on output and investment resulting in a marked slow down in economic activity. The inflow of refugees put new burdens on the budgot, the labour market and the urban infrastructure. Extremely difficult budgetary and balance of payments positions, were averted only as a result of large infusions of Arab financial assistance made under the Khartoum agreement of August 1967. The situation was furither complicated by the closure of the Suez Canal which provided access to the Mediterranean for Jordan's only sea port at Aqaba. Furthermore, the Prowing strength and militancy of th3 Palestinian guerillas adversely affected the general investment climate. To counteract these developments, the Government stepped in, in an attempt to alle- viate the difficulties caused by the war and its aftermath. This meant, on the one hand. extending financial aid to several comnanies. public utilities and refugees organizations and, on the other hand, revisinE policies in such a way as to concentrate develonment efforts on the East Bank. This policy aided by a continuing boom in the con- struction sector and an excentionallv nnd hirvct. cnlminAtAr in 1969, in a high rate of growth in GNP that was very much in line with the pre-1y U runUs 1/ Data for GNP and related indicies are not available for the post iyo years because statistics on production, investment, etc. in the occupied West Bank are lacking. Estimates in this report for these years are based on some other general indicators. 3. The loss of the West Bank has led to a disruption of economic relations with the East Bank. Jordanian bank branches operating in the occupied West Bank were closed and deposits of JD 14 million ($39 million) were frozen. In an attempt to relieve the financial burden of depositors, the Jordanian Government allowed withdrawals of up to JD 200 per month with a maximum of 25 percent of the balance on the account. However, more liberal provisions were made for business enterprises and more needy cases. But the Jordanian dinar continues to circulate in the West Bank alongside the currency of the occupying country. Furthermore the Jordanian Government continues to pay salaries in the ITst Bank. Trade, at a much reduced level, continues to take place between the East and the 1Jst Banks. The West Bank supplies the East Bank with fruits and vegetables, while the East Bank supplies the West Bank with certain locally manufactured and imported goods. 4. The Jordanian economy received another serious setback in the second half of 1970, and particularly after the events of September 1970, when growing tensions and increasingly severe clashes between the Jordanian Army and the guerilla forces culminated in widespread hos- tilities and disturbances. Estimates of casualties range from the Government figure of 2500 to the Red Cross' estimate of 6000 to the guerillas claim of 30,000. The material losses resulting from the fighting in September were estimated by the Government to be in the neighborhood of JD 16 million ($h5 million), half of which was accounted for by damage to buildings and private dwellings, about JD 4 million in the commerce sector and JD 2 million in the industrial sector. The Jordanian Government takes the view that if the economy is to over- come the adverse effects of the Sentember hostilities. Drompt and adequate compensation is of crucial importance. As a result, the Government. during 1970. has naid JD 2.5 million out of ceneral funds and plans to allocate at least JD 3.8 million for compensation in the 1971 huict. Th- (levernmpnt. P.rn,t- th t thp hlann will h finnnrtr from funds outside the budget - namely JD 4 million in special Arab nnfl.r M 9 Tnillinn fv-nr inin+. TT1+Prq pIT--n~- relief fund. 5. The immediate effect of the 1970 fighting was to bring the economy to d a virl SUC.L 1U Oi~U_.LLL MVt, ulle enIU of L71x j LiUuU1__LCLL UJU 4Lu dropped by about 50 percent as industries, in particular, suffered 11---;V±J_..L I-UIL U±LZjU1-1U;U0 Blut, oIter factors~ a.lso accent~uad the I difficulties. Phosphate production, the country s most important export industry, dcined substantlly compared to 1969 mainly because of the difficulties associated with phosphate exports to India. Cement production uecilnea LIo aoou nal of iits ±Yuy LeveL mainly due tU wne substantial fall in construction activity (other than some repair work) as well as a fall in cement exports. Campared to y69 agricultural production in 1970 has been very unsatisfactory. For one thing, rains during the planting season were far below average and ill timed. uUt- put of cereals dropped sharply and domestic requirements were met by large imports. Although not to the same extent as cereals, output of fruits, vegetables, olives and other field crops also declined. Civil disturbances hampered the distribution and marketing of agricultural products. The general economic situation was further aggravated by theJ suspens.in of. a large part o AIirab aid to JorUdn. BothI LibUya and Kuwait suspended their aid to Jordan in the wake of the September incidents. For 1yu, this meant the loss to Jordan of one quarterly installment from Libya (JD 2.2 million) and two monthly payments from Kuwait (D 2." million). No payments from either source were made in the first four months of 1971, and no arrangements have so far been made for them to be resumed in the near future. Saudi Arabia, however, continues to make its payments on a regular basis. The combined effect of all these adverse developments brought about a severe recession and an estimated decline in GNP of about 20 percent in 1970. Unemployment - es- timated at about 30-35 percent - is videspread among both white collar workers and unskilled labour. 6. Immediately after the end of the hostilities, Jordan received emergency aid for rehabilitation from both the United States and the United Kingdom. In addition to the United States/Jordanian relief fund already referred to, the United States has also provided military aid, $5 million in kind mainly in food supplies, school buildings, hospital and other medical aid and a further $5 million in budget support. The United Kingdom has provided rehabilitation aid of almost £1 million in medical aid, restoration of electricity lines and teams of engineers and technicians to rehabilitate the telecommunication system. 7. Although the Government is aware of the gravity of the situation and is making a determined effort to revive economic activity, the prosnects of recovery must denend heavily on the extent and the speed with which confidence and a conducive investment climate are re-es- tblished. These rennirements ar cloely linked to the problm of internal security. Since September, the Government and the Army have damonst-atd that they cann revent the guerillas from maintaining their hold over the cities and creating a state within the state. But since the guerillas are by no means a spent force, tension in the country is likely to remain for some time. 11. PULLU FINANU AND UE7V%ELUOH17T Artivu11URE 8. Prior to 1967, the Governent's attempts at reducing reliance on foreign badget support had attained a certain measure of success. But the Arab-Israeli war completely changed the picture because domestic revenue declined since tax collections could not be made in the West Bank and financiil demands on the Government increased after the war. Both these factors aggravated the country's budgetary problem and sharply increased the country's reliance on foreign budget support. Foreign aid in 1966, for example, financed one fourth of the total Government expenditures while in 1968 the proportion was well above 50 percent. A substantial part of this aid was in the form of grants from Arab countries. This financial assistance enabled the Jordanian Government to undertake rather large expenditures on relief and emergency assistance as well as to increase defense expenditures. Defense expenditures, however, increased substantially in 1969 leading to a further deterioration in the budgetary situation during that year and an overall deficit of some JD 12 million. Fiscal policy in 1970 was aimed at reducing the overall budgetary deficit and hence reliance on the domestic banking system. The 1970 budget aimed at a deficit requiring domestic bank financing of JD 6 million. To achieve this result, custom duties, excise and business taxes were increased and ceilinas in the rate of erowth of public expenditures were agreed upon. These objectives, however, had to be abandoned as a result of the dis- turbances of the second half of the vear. Dobmestic revenues fell by an estimated 10 percent mainly as a result of the effect of civil strife on the level of Anonomic activity- Arnh Pid under the Khnrtoum Aoree- ment declined from a projected JD 37.7 million to JD 33 million mainly hncauns of the snsnenson of payments by Thia (TD 29 millinn) And Kuwait (JD 2.6 million). This, coupled with an increase in emergency the overall budgetary deficit to an estimated JD 19.A million, inspite of' the fat that+ deeomete_Innre iane ro h Trasuyr were cut back, certain foreign obligations due toward the end of the Me~? so. budget,.a p rpo als for 14-.11r -n~r 4- 4-1-a ,rn. 4-4--, 4- expected to be more difficir.t than in the previous year particularly -in view of th uncerly-uE of fUreIgn budget support andu izetinrae levels of expenditures. Because of this uncertainty the Jordanian Govern- Aux..a,- v.1 u<- _ , vo.. "e -1 , . - . yer 1 1 1 0 1 ) 0 1 1' [ 1 DU 1 C 1 00 m;~ hs L d't~C~nr& ~- im0;in nu,, iin LIi, J-,'1 hu into t'1r22 chlPters. Ch;rpter I of the rpproved bud-et reLtes to .ssured reve- ruCc nI buouu -y utri non-postpornvle. expencltures. Totr rc:venues rto r:poc L to r _c J6 .) million, of v-hich JD 37.0 million :;re projec- v. usnumei1 re1rau< s. - 1icuoos r cjrtiona-,l revenuas of JD .'.. million resultin, frrn the planned introduction of ne" texes, increcse s IA ols v -Xisting t,:ces cn,. speciF11 levies on some utilit' retcs. It also includes about JD 3 million resulting from the new agreement with the Trans-Arabian Pinline Co. (Tanline), for the transit Ao fil through Jordan from Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean. External re- ceipts are estimatA d+ .TD 27.3 million made up of WT 14.8 million from Saudi Arabia and JD 12.5 million from other sources, primarily +he Uni+ed Q+aes Tal no_n"pstpnale exenitre ar e w0 estmaed at JD 72.6 million. Chapter I of the budget, therefore, has an over- al SLU df i Uof U 8. III onL.L e UJapersH a I!U ol L t1e apprUVed budget detail the expenditures that will be undertaken in case Kuwait andIL i.01bJya esm ~0ItheA.ir aidU payments bttalling .JDJ.J 9 million. Ex- penditures under these chapters are expected to total JD 22.9 million. 10. The Jordanian authorities apparently intend to rely on the domes- tic banking system to finance the overall budget deficit of JD 8.2 mil- lion. But this deficit may be larger than envisaged if estimates of domestic revenue and some postponable expenditures prove to be too optimistic. It should be noted that, on the revenue side, only a few of the new tax measures have so far been taken. These are expected to yield no more than JD 1.5 million. On the other hand, it is doubtful that certain expenditures particularly on defense, emergency and loan repayment can be postponed to the extent envisaged in the budget. In view of these factors, the Central Government's reliance on the domes- tic banking system will be more than was expected when the budget was formulated. - 6 - Table I: Central Government Budget (million Jordanian Dinars) Revised Esti- 1966 1967 1968 1969 mates Budget 1970 1971 Re venue Domestic 31.0 25.7 26.4 33.2 30.4 37.0 1/ Foreign Aid 12.0 37.9 39.8 37.6 33.1 27.h 4/ Total Revenue 43.0 63.6 66.2 70.8 63.5 64h Expenditures Recurrent Expenditures 39.0 44.7 57.2 65.2 64.8 58.7 Armed Forces 2/ (19.4) (24.2) (35.2) (4l.5) (37.7) (32.3) Th11,.4 "I P+ V _I A 7 1 n. 7 -1 7 1 . 17 2. 1 -1 01).C Sfl V.L}JW. f}O LA >f 4...41. _ L-.V4) 7 Of which Total Expenditures 49.7 61.4 74.7 82.7 82.9 72.6 5/ Surplus or deficit (-) -6.7 2.3 -8.5 -11.9 -19.4 -8.2 1/ Includes JD 4.5 million resulting from new tax measures and JD 3 million in additional revenue under the new Tapline agreement. 2/ Budget allocations, actuals not available. 3/ Includes recurrent expenditure relating to development projects and debt servicing. Excludes development expenditures of the Jordan Development Board and the Jordan River Corporation financed from external sources. 4/ Not including aid payment from Kuwait (JD 14.0 million) and Libya (JD 8.9 million). 5/ Excluding expenditures in Chapters II and III of the Budget which are con- tingent on receiving aid payments from Kuwait and Libya. Source: Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Jordan. -7- Table TT. hnr+o-z TT nnA TTT nf t.hp 1Q71 Thnen+. Kuwait aid 14.0 Treasury contribution IUo UvelopmenU Libyan aid 8.9 projects 2.7 Emergency 8.3 Repayment of loans 3.0 Defense 4.0 Support for West Bank 4.9 Total 22.9 22.9 Source: Ministry of Finance, 1971 Buaget Law. - 8 - 11. DeveloDment exrenditures are undertaken by the Jordan Develop- ment Board (JDB) and the Jordan River Corporation, the two bodies through whom the Goverrment channels all develooment loans and tech- nical assistance. The two development authorities also receive some rnvernimAnt rontributinn_ bt thin is nf minor sionificanc compared to external project loans. The JDB and the Jordan River Corporation h.v% nYmn11v nvPra+innt.ae thi- hilitu +. ohtain and annanity tn utilize development funds. For example, budgeted development ex- penditure fo 1040 wase of the oder f .TD 11 "illJ^n %Ahile ntnnl expenditure on development projects was JD 7.8 million for the same year. For 197U the disparity between budget andu actua expen&-tures was even larger - JD 13.7 million and JD 6.3 million respectively. LJU.1u6u ULIJ 0 y = t u VpL;JUFuv VAo ouLU VuVO w01 tU1LLu.%Uou LU nV..a related to the Shu'aib and Kafrain dams near the Dead Sea, the ._J . .D L . LJ 3 - --- L_ ____. -.7 -L . - L ..-4. expanioun of te "ru.Lu electricity [nOUWorK U1 o1J n1JW d."JpUu dU Aqaba. Construction of the proposed link between the Hijaz railway and the Port of Aqala was deferred pending a reassessmeno of the feasibility ol' the project. 12. The Central Government's share in development financing has been small and is mainly confined to a number of minor projects and items of capital expenditures for which foreign financing is not available. The Goverrment also finances the local currency costs of projects undertaken by the two development authorities with external project loans. In addition, the Central Governmert, through its own development budget, finances certain types of recurrent expendi- tures arising out of capital development-projects as well as loans, subsidies, grants to Government and semi-Government organizations, equity participation and emergency - mainly compensation - expenditures. -9- Table III: Development Expenditures of the Jordan Development Board and the jordan Rivr Corporatlon A C T U A L S Budget Estimates Budget -96 n 197T -96 C)t5 9-69n 1nr i7 17n -19Q71 L.7UU .L7U. i -L7UU. J-7U7 -L7 I vJ -7 kJ -L" -L. Expenditure: Jordan Development Board 5.8 5.5 L.5 5.4 10.9 3.9. Jordan River Corporation 1.0 1.3 0.5 2.5 2.8 2.4 1.6 6.8 6.8 5.0 7.9 13.7 6.3 11.1 Financing: External Grants 2.5 2.h 0.4 o.8 3.4 0.2 1.0 External Project Loans 2.7 4.3 5.h 4.8 8.1 2.1 9.7 Jordan Government Contribution 1.6 0.1 - 2.2 2.1 4.o 0.4 6.8 6.8 5.8 7.8 13.6 6.3 11.1 -ource: jordan Develow.ent Board and lnr1 anofodn- - 10 - III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 13. Jordan's balance of payments is characterized by a consistent trade deficit. The country's exports are largely confined to phosphates, fruits and vegetables and it needs to import a wide range of consumer goods and capital equipment. Before 1967, the increasing deficit on the trade account and the general phasing out of foreign budgetary support were more than offset by growing receipts from invisibles - mainly the expanding tourist trade and remittances from Jordanians working abroad. With the occupation of the West Bank in 1967, the trade deficit showed a marked de- cline. But this was more than matched by a drop in receipts from tourism and remittances from Jordanians working abroad, leading to an increase in the deficit on goods and services. This deficit was, however, more than compensated for by the increase in foreign aid - mainly from Arab countries. As a result the balance of payments of Jordan achieved a surplus in 1967 and 1968. The picture changed in 1969 as the economy picked up momentum leading to a sharp increase in imports. This coupled with a stepping up of military purchases and the servicing of some military loans, led to a sharp increase in the deficit on goods and services. At the same time, foreign aid fell by about JD 7 million. The net effect of all this was a balance of payments deficit of JD 11 million. Preliminary data for 1970 show a small balance of payments deficit. The reduction in the size of the deficit is due to the fact that although exports declined, mainly be- cause of the difficulties in marketing phosphates, imports declined by more than exports. Servicing of some military loans, due towards the end of the year, were deferred. But there was a further drop in foreign aid to Jordan. 14. The balance of pavments deficit for 1971 is expected to be of the same magnitude as 1969. Exports are expected to increase by JD 2 million mainly as a result of the new agreement with India on the marketing of phosphates. But imports are expected to increase somewhat over 1970 as the situation returns to normal and at least part of the depleted stocks are gradually replenished. Met receipts from services are expected to be somewhat higher than their 1970 level mainly as a result of the new agree- ment with Tapline. For the balance of payments as a whole, the Government estimates that the definit for 19)73 will he of the order of TD 10.0 million. But this deficit can conceivably rise sharply in 1972 if the Government uses the domestic bankino, system for finanpina all the Nirvet deficit or A qi7e- able proportion thereof. 15. Due to the extent and -mportance of foreign aid, Jordan has accu- of the commercial banks. At the end of 1970 foreign reserves amounted to Tn) 07 --; 1 n 14- t9 71 -4 114 1 -; --h-- 1 ne 1 0 ---4+h, -P 4----+- -P --4- -d S- / I " - \, #4- .4 I A..J.C J %-,. UwJu. .47 111I1 10 %I J .. ..L L1&tdWjL V %/4. CLL services. The Government takes the position that large foreign exchange emergency. As long as the present conditions, with their built-in uncer- foiLg Ure srvet ss LS taI14CUe, isL:V-Ll, thE UndeVrseta1ndb lJJUeL.Y L':dIU1K1k; foreign reserves is understandable. - 11 - TV. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ANTD PROSPECTS 16. Jordan's rather meager natural resource base, which is confined to agriculture and piupauue munig, has made te economic U eveLopmen fU the country a difficult undertaking. But the situation arising out of the jun 1967 war has brought about some new compiLcations. Ie poliical situation that has emerged in the post-war period has made it impossible for the country to carry out major irrigation and agricultural schemes, particularly in the Jordan Valley which is by far the country's most pro- mising area. Since 1967 work on the Yarmouk dam scheme, designed to store and channel water through the existing East Ghor C.nal (to be extended southwards) had to be suspended. Furthermore, constant shelling across the Jordan river resulted in widespread disruptions in the areas already irrigated from the Canal, and agricultural production came to a standstill as farmers deserted the valley. Substitute measures to develop agricultural production were initiated. Most important among these are land reclamation projects on the fringes of the desert to be partly irrigated by underground water and partly from two small dams - Shu'aib and Kafrain - that have just been completed. Furthermore some dry farming experiments are being under- taken to determine the possibility of growing olives and grLpes under these conditions. In addition new varieties of wheat are being tested. 17. Industrial production also experienced a set-back after 1967, mainly because of the uncertainties inherent in the post-war situation, difficulties of marketing East Bank production in the West Bank and the closing of the Suez Canal. But under the Government's policy of actively encouraging and protecting the private sector - such policy measures as protective tariffs, exemption of certain inputs from duties, grants and credits under preferential terms, subscriptions to the share capital of companies as well as the general stepping up of Government expenditure - industrial production posted modest gains in 1968 and 1969. This was furthered by strong foreign demand for phosphates in these two years. 18. These favorable trends, however, received a serious setbaci due to the rnPnmber 1970 inciinnts and the resulting widpnrand disrin-tinn in the economy. All development work on agriculture came to a virtial standstill inrl aprimiltural outnut .rlpninwd hv ahont. 2r nprnpnt. in ',970 paitly as a result of ine.dequate and ill-timed rainfall. But the c,nse- quences of the r1.turbanees were nPretcularly acute in the incus+rIa' sector, where the value Gf production is estimated to have declined y al- moq+- r,n nmir-wnt. Thic: armT: n--)+-1vT ilA +.%na rnl+nf e 3nline n e%- %,- duction and export of phoophates due to a dispute with India. 19. Phosphate production is Jordan's major export industry and the a1 g n rn~4 cn,n -'-',n c,a-i,, m l. 4- so,, - -nn&+ a-,., "UU -.f,.r 4-+W 4 exploiting the full potential of this natural resource. The phosphatt company - a Joint pubJ1ic_pr4va1- sector ventu-~sbe aiglse in the past two years. Management problems and high costs of product.on have ben the main fsActurs contributing o Us reult. Tnese proo.Le1s will have to be tackled if Jordanian phosphate is to be competitive enoug'h to captu 0 0 D, u ar vi LIIU UA-O ~U.L1 tUu I ul-11ULU LUL Fi u- phates, particularly in the Far East - Iran, Japan, China, etc. 20. The September incidents and the situation that has been precipi- tated as a result, have diverted the attention of the Jordanian authorities to dealing with the most immediate problems facing the economy, and little thought or action is being given to the medium or long-run prospects of the economy. There is no doubt that Jordan faces extremely critical short- run problems and to deal with these the Government seems to take the view that it is essential to launch whatever projects are ready to restore con- fidence, to provide employment and to generate economic activity. While under the present Jordanian conditions, there is some merit to this view, it embodies the danger of diverting scarce resources to projects of ques- tionable economic value, thus leading to future distortions in the economy. This danger becomes very real when there are very few projects that are really well-prepared and conceived, or whose implementation is warranted under present conditions. 21. A more appropriate development strategy for Jordan in its present circumstances calls for the choice of development projects which can be of help in relieving the immediate economic situation while at the same time be of benefit to the long-term ain of the development of the country. Such a strategy has a few implications. Firstly, it implies that since it is clear that Jordan needs considerable external assistance on very soft terms, foreign aid should be channelled to the preparation and exe- cution of projects that fit the above strateav rather than toward schemes of low priority (e.g. civil aviation). The country is at pre- sent receiving some foreign aid that meets this criterion, such as the United Kingdom soft loan of b 3.6 million to develop Amman electricity. The nroients that are nronosed for TTIA financing also meet these condi- tions. The proposed UNDP Five-Year Program for Jordan could also be a nonstrnaitv influnnn in this dirpe+n+-A nn S nnndly the nrnnnd strategy implies that the Jordanian authorities have to give very serious thought to the an+ryv. develpament priorities - a nrneas that hna yet to be initiated. This is crucial if Jordan is to make the most out of Its extremely limi+eoan n. and finnnne4w.e nnAw-r4 Eqnally imnainn+ Jordan should also ensure that its present investments are yielding the h 4 kn+ ngee4 hi0 _+ t0 nS wiato nw, A+ nonan+ +h4 4o nn+ +1- nno 4- = number of undertakings e.g. the phosphate industry. 22. But in the final analysis, the prospects and future development of vorudaan ud"Ll b ILJMNIU D.Y~ UJAJa kduP1ICL O.L.JUU.Lon i te area ~. Ille short term prospects for Jordan will be affected by such factors as the ability of the country to raise foreign financial assistance on very soft terms or even grant basis within and outside the Arab World and whether or not the guerillas will stage another challenge to the authority of the Government and a possible repeat of the September incidents. The long run prospects will depend on whether peace can be brought back to the area as - 13 - a whole and on whether Jordan will get back all or part of the West Bank. All 4theSe ar 4m~tnm -t v4a1e +hat+ will have fnar rc~hing lJa*Aw ^måk- V-v~~ - -- - effects on the future of Jordan; but the situation is such that Jordan can exercise ony a limited influence on the outcome of these unknowns.  STATISTICAL APPENTI)TX 3.1 Balance of Payments 1966 - 1970 3.2 Direction of Foreign Trade 1966 - 1970 3.3 Summary of Foreign Trade 1966 - 1970 3.4 Production and Export of Phosphates 1961 - 1970 3.5 International Reserves 1964 - 1970 +vrnal nob. ~n-r np(.Pmh.r 1, 1970 qo-"Seri ce Pay-me nts on 'r.-rt.RrYiq1 Puic f nhfb. 5.1 Central Government Budget 1966 - 1970 5.2 Government Domestic Revenue 1966 - 1970 5.3 Government Development Expenditures 1966 - 1970 61 Facor affecting- c ge -n Money Supply' -196 7 '1C l'7 n 0.2 Money and Quasi Money 1966 - 197u 7.1 Agricultural Production 1965 - 1970 9.1 Amman Cost of Living Index 1968 - 1970  Tabl3 3.1: Balance of Payments (In millions of Jordan dinars) Provis- Fore- 1966 1967 1968 1969 ional cast 1970 1971 A. Goods and services - 35.5 - 27.8 - 4. l - 63.6 - 48.1 -b7 Exports (f.o.b.) 1o.4 11.3 14.3 14.8 12.h 16 67mrts (c.f.) - 67. -·52 - 57. - 67.6 - 6).2 -68 Trade balance -56.9 -29 3.0 - 52.8 -51.8 - h eve1.6 15. - i. - i n . .7 17 L). unreui rL nfL,.Lers 4 1L ).7 )L.5 47.3 4J- . 54V ^ .1 -wi.i i: Aid from Arab countries ( 9.5) (37.6) (46.3) (41.1) (33.2) (10.8) C. Nonmonetary capit.l (net). 1.6 1.1 5.3 - 0.6 - 4 D. SD'l allocation -- -- -- -- i E. Net errors and orissions 5.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 5.7 -- F. Monetary movements (increase-) - 8.6 - 32.8 - 15.5 10.9 2.0 10 Sources: Central Bank of Jordan and International Monetary Fund. Talerh1 3 . jord~-- Diecio of., Foreinra (In thousands of Jordan dinars) 1966 1967 1968 1969 January June 1969 1970 Exports 8,759 9,84 12,172 11,916 76,0 2 AraU SLLtOs 5,7 6)429 8 8,5.V 4,030 4,971 EEC 6441 761 52 1 - - United Kingdom 3 3 4 1 1 1 United States 37 13 3 6 1 1 Yugoslavia 810 530 864 1ol6 h26 483 India 1,337 1,29 1,889 1,482 658 211 Japan 31 102 35 16 - Commnist Bloc 371 345 325 394 281 127 Other 113 443 759 471 361 532 Imports. 68,211 55,048 57,492 67,752 31,234 35,866 Arab States 13,062 10,515 11,031 14,382 6,570 7,276 EEC 13,713 12,10o 11,808 12,143 6,144 6,743 United Kingdom 8,140 6,712 7,154 9,677 4,191 4,755 united otates ,952 u,7 63230J. 2,1Uo L,U Yugoslavia 362 592 587 478 197 512 Tndia 1 L,1 1 109 .17 1 017 Japan 2,860 2,034 2,894 5,149 2,455 2,218 Commutnit Bon 7,629 588 63260 8,955 4,087 4, 26L Other 8,947 9,329 10,274 9,546 5,035 5,040 /l Excluding re-exports. Source: Department of Statistics, Ministry of National Economr. Table 3.3: Summary of Foreign Trade (In millions of Jordan dinars) 19(6 1967 196R 199 197C Imports (c.i.f.) 68.1 55.1 57.5 67.7 61.3 Exports 10.4 11.3 114.3 14.8 12.5 of which: re-exports (1.6) (1.4) (2.1) (2.8) (2.h) Trade deficit 57.7 43.8 4,3.2 52.9 51.8 L sTiLmates. Source: Central Bank of Jordan. Table _3i: Jordan - Production and Exort of_ nospales (In thousands of metric tons) Production Exports Change in stocks Wet Dry (Dry) (Dry) 1961 45 378 394 - 16 1962 681 579 372 207 1963 615 $23 368 155 1964 604 513 627 - 114 1965 8642 716 605 i1 1966 1,001 851 755 96 1967 1,314 918 882 36 1968 1,590 1,162 1,095 67 1969 1,320 1,087 928 159- 1970L 849 626 223 /1 Stocks of wet and dry phosphates held at the end of 1969 were equiva- Lent to about 760,uuv tons of Ury phosphates. /2 Data cover 11 months only. Source: Department of Statistics and Jordan Phosphates Company. Table 3.5: Internaticn:l :e serve i (In millions of Jordan dinv-rs') End of period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 C'entural 'Bank27.3- 97 )9 . 590 7 9 P7 Q . 9 Gold -- 12 12 12 3, 0 .9 SDRs -- -- -- -- 1,o IMF gold tranche position 0.9 1,0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.h 2.1 Foreign exchange 26.h h7.7 57.6 .9 u"9.6 u-.7 7.3 Commercial banks assets 24.7 10.1 7.3 5.3 6.3 t . 6.1 Total 52.0 60.0 67.2 92.5 17.9 96. -,7.3 Sou-rce: Central Bank of Jordan.  Table h.1: EXTE:'L PUBLIC DEBT CUT¯T iiD AS 07 D BF1 19 Debt Repayabl in Foigiýn Currcncy (In thousands of U.S. dol.liars) Debt utadn Source I - Disuur'sed Inc3.xuo:ko Onlyuniure TOTAL EXTD'NAL PUBLIC DELT /2 107.862 160.161 IDA 9,075 Loans from governmcnts 98,787 lhOf3hé 130nark 2 .w Gem~any (Fd. Rep. of) 10,799 30,966 Kuwait lh,960 16,960 Kuwaiti Fund for Arab Economic Develop-i, nt 9,915 15,795 Saudi Arabia J,000 14,oc0 United Kingdom 38,8h 46,721 Unitecl St atczs 9,84 16,10- /l7Debt with an original or extend'cd matu:r-itr of ovr ona year, Includs arrcears of pritnipal and excludes ariuars of interest up to Deccm,ber 31. 1970 as shown bolow: (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Princ:ipal inter ;st Lnarns from gove'rnents J,973 ~,023 Gemany (Fed. Rep. of) 93] - ~i Kuwait 1,h0o 560 Note: Duc to inconisi'tencies in debt reporting, assunptior.,s were madc, in during 169 and 1970. Statistical Services Division Economiics Department March 23, 1971  Table 4.2: TDMT:D 1 URE VT) CE Y PUYIJC0 T Debt Rtcpayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page i 01E T OJTST (CE flFT P RI r 7 n PAYiMENV?3 TS i UiTINGP orr3ii INCLUDING AM0R T1- YEAR U N ISU RSEöi Zu P JJATIN iNTJ 1 'EEST A u i kt TOTAL EXTERIAL PUriLIC DEGT 1971 135p769 6>964 1>735 8>698 1972 128p325 7#271 1>100 9>071 1973 121x554 6r363 1,644 8.008 1974 115p191 6>791 1712 8#503 1975 108,400 6,911 1>732 8>643 1976 101>489 6,895 1>640 8>536 1977 94#593 8>285 1591 9,876 1978 86308 6>583 1p561 8>144 1979 79>725 6>583 1>427 8>010 1980 73>141 5>722 1>293 7>014 1981 67.420 6f276 1,215 7p491 1982 61,144 6>027 1 138 7.165. 1983 55>118 4>067 798 4>864 1984 51>051 4p128 728 0r156 1985 46>923 4079 662 å>741 1986 42.>3'44 3,972 598 4>570 1988 34,965 3,831 1472 4>303 nit 0 nd a fl &..z 4 11 i1h h.f; L 1990 27p483 3,651 359 4>010 9336 335 3956 Note: Includes service on all dobt listedi in Table 1 prepared March 23, 1971 with the exception of the following, for which repayment terns are not available: .oans from yovrrnmnnts 1),373 Germany (Fed. Rep. ofj 973 Kuw It 1 i,n00 United Kingdom 12,000 F3f ESThTD FUTUR- SERVICE PAI:!!TS O, EXTERiAL PUBLIC DE,;BT ouUAlDJING Ii:CLUDäING U:ID1 U2SE) AS 0F DECEDE3R 31, 1970 Debt Reptyable in Foreign Currncy (I-n thouSand3 of U.S. Collr:) PegC 2 (6EGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD i NCLUDiNG ÅhûRT- yEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGATIZATIONS IDA 1971 10p015 8 70 77 1972 10>006 15 75 90 1973 9p993 15 75 90 1974 9>978 70 75 145 1975 9,907 70 74 144 1976 9>837 70 74 144 1977 9>767 85 73 158 1978 9>682 100 72 173 1979 9p582 100 72 172 1980. 9,482 100 71 171 1981 9,381 115 70 185 1982 9>266 130 69 199 1983 9>136 130 68 198 1984 9p006 240 67 308 1985 8,766 240 65 306 1986 8>525 240 63 304 1987 9285 270 62 332 1988 8.001,4 300 60 360 1989 7,714 300 57 358 1990 7p413 300 55 355 1991 7113 300 53 353 LOANS FROM GOVERMENTS 1971 125p774 6,956 1,665 8o621 1972 116p818 7>256 1>725 8>981 1973 111o562 6>348 1s570 7>918 1974 1.05>213 6>721 1,637 8p358 1975 98@492 6>841 1.658 8>499 1976 91>651 6>825 1>567 8P392 1977 84>826 8P200 1>518 9,718 1978 76p626 6>483 1p4818. 7>.972 1979 70>143 6>483 1p355 7s838 1980 63,660 5>621 1#222 6>843 1981 58>038 6>160 1,145 7>305 1982 51,878 5>896 1>069 6966 1933 45>981 3>936 729 4>666 19å4 42>045 3>88 661 4549 1985 38>158 3o838 597 4>436 1986 34>319 3>732 535 4266 1987 30,588 3>637 472 4,109 11988 2 5Uf71 3530 413 3p943 1989 23,420 3>350 356 3>707 1990 20p070 39350 304 3>655 1991 16,720 3,350 252 3>603 Table h.2; ESTIAT FU'UE SERVICE PAiETS 0F 3T,) AL H.1 :7: D T OU ïsTAUDING i cL~UDIü U1!D1:1U1ED A; Or DE~CEL 31, 159/0) Dcbt Rcpayable in Foroign Currency (I uhusandsof U.S. donars) Page 3 DEBT OUJST (KjEGIt Or PERIOO) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING A,iL0TI1 yEAR UNDISBURSED ZAT ION INTEREST TOTAL IDOANS FROM GOVE;R1MENTS DEN M ARK 1971 1p600 107 107 1972 1p493 107 - 107 1973 1p387 107 107 1974 1,280 107 107 1975 1>173 107 107 1976 1>067 107 " 107 1977 960 107 107 1978 853 107 107 1979 747 107 107 1980 640 107 107 1981 533 107 107 1982 427 107 . 107 1983 320 107 - 107 1984 213 107 107 19 107 107 107 r_ r n k A ä. v 9 129, n993 363 3342 69 5 1972 299630 363 472 835 6 613 976 1974 20p904 629 753 1>382 i975 28p275 629 747 1>477 1976 27,645 629 828 1.456 1977 27,016 ip8ß F01 2>619 1978 25,198 1,818 746 2p564 1979 23>380 i>81A 692 2>510 1980 21>562 1,818 637 2>455 1981 19A744 1,818 583 21>40( 1932 17>927 1p575 528 -29103 1983 16p352 1.575 481 2>056 1904 14>776 1>575 433 2>00' 1985 13,201 1p575 386 1,961 1906 11p626 1>575 339 1,914 1987 10'051 1>575 292 1>867 1988 8>476 1.466 245 1>714 1989 7,008 1,455 201 1>656 1990 5>553 1>455 158 1#612 1991 4,098 1>455 114 1>569 Tfable h.2?: 32TJIViNT' FUUR MRvVJGEy PAYf1'ji; 01 E>i:T 3 iL I PU )1 A!2 00 TNDE II0 i : U303:J' ED'k AS) O.J DE&i 3I~ , 970 Taele 0,-)lei reg urec LI4ý~1j)tc~JJ i 11,9L I UJ -jIu I (Ijn houand of U.S. Poalac) Page h PI UT t] I TT (i; 61 F PE[IIe ) P1AY: ENTS t;R If,G FE I D INCLUD NGI AL UUi, T 1 YEAR UNDI SIUSED ZATIrN INTEREST TOTAL L nAs vFoM GnvERN,,,mEN,,TS 17 - 29 -5 72 9 5 u819 1972 24.,628 4>327 993 5.9320 1973 20p300 2>067 686 2773 1974 18,213 2#087 626 2p713 1975 16P126 2>087 565 2 1976 14>039 2p024 505 2p529 1977 12s015 2>024 447 2>471 1978 9>991 2>304 389 2>693 1979 7P687 2>304 331 2P635 1980 5>383 19442 273 1>715 1981 3>941 1t981 272 2>253 1982 1>960 1.960 272 2>232 SAUDI ARA.BIA 974 1>40 0 - 1>400 1972 12,600 2,100 * 2>100 t 973 12n.t 2f100 - 2>100 1974 8p400 2p100 - 2>100 1975 6300 2100 2,100 1976 4>200 2>100 * 2>100 1977 2>100 2100 2 100 71- ncludo's: Amount Outstanding as of December 31, 1970_ Kuwait $13,60,000 Kuwaiti Fund for Arab Economic D*evelopiient 15,795,000 $2~,33500¯0 Table -,.2: jI STj. YU U6ld SEkVICI; *P:j;rS O 7 i ;L PU3UJC 'DI1 ]Xcht 1Rep2yable in Foreign~ Curreny (i hovxands c • U.S. dollar3) Pg DECT OUT5T CU Gi C F PErI(jD) P Y T fU IN FE,! UD YEAR UDISURSED ZATI9N IiTEREST TOT/4 IDANS FROM4 GO7RNki'TS UNITED KIGD01, 1971 34 721 1972 341721 - 2l 1973 34 721 1>332 1l 1>332 1974 33-39 1>439 1>439 1975 31,950 1>559 1>559 a97 30 39 -5 , 1455 1977 28,32 1#559 2>559 107A 27 23 5 2 c'55 9l 1979 25.714 1>559 1>559 6 C o%7-. 1 -559 1981 22-596 1,559 - 1,559 1982 21>03 1>559 - pD559 1983 19'479 1>559 ml 1>559 1964 17p920 1p559 - 1#559 1965 16p361 10559 w 1p559 1966 14pC02 1.559 m i>559 1987 13#243 1-559 " 1.559 1988 .11.664 1,559 10559 1989 0>125 1>559 - 1s559 1990 8>567 1t559 "l 1>559 1991 7>008 1p559 1#559 1971 16,105 359 241 600 1972 15,746 359 260 619 1973 15,387 359 271 630 1974 15,028 359 258 617 1975 14>669 359 246 605 9'7A5 iu.-ln --r605 1977 13,903 593 270 663 1979 12>,615 696 332 1>028 199 3-1 u,007 1981 11,223 696 290 986 92102766270 965 1963 9,83 l 696 249 94 4 1984 9>135 647 228 875 19b5 6.489 59a 211 809 1986 7P891 59d 196 793 1987 7,293 503 180 683 1988 6>790 503 167 670 1969 6>267 337 155 492 1990 5p950 337 Ia7 483 1991 5p613 337 138 475 Statistial- Serviccs Division Economics Departnent March 23, 1971  Table 5.1: Central Government Budget (In millions of Jordan dinars) 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 .7alendar year Revised 7uget Budget Estimates Proposals/b 1. Revenue (a4b) 43.41 63.65 66-17 7_ .2 Q__72 1 6L.ho a. Domestic receipts 31.02 37 Domestic revenue -- 26.27 32.52 34.5o 29.90 Loans repaid to central government -- 0.22 0.10 o.65 0.91 o.4o b. External receipts 12.39 37.93 39.80 Budget support grants 77.73 -T-5 - --69 -T3. 37.55 .37.3 '33.0027 Extraordinary grants -- :21.04 0.25 -- . - - 2. Expenditure 48.13 61. D 75. 8& '.1 J 20 72.60 Recurring expenditure 39.02>7.19 T.23 64.07 63.90 8.T70 of 'which ArmedForcesZ (19.L1) (24.17) (35.17) (37.55) (37.73) (38.30) (32.30) Development expenditure3 9.11 .16.75 18.36 15.26 14. 07 15.30 13.90 of which Emergency expenditure -- ( 9.1) ( 9.32) ( 8.66) ( 6.30) 5.80) ( 9'00) 3. Surplus (+) or deficit (-1 4.72 + 2.25 - 9.33 .77 - 6.00 --8.20 Financing from banking system a. Sale of Treasury bills (net) -- -- -- 8.17 3.71. 3.74 -- b. Changes in deposits (-. increase) 4.72 - 2.25 9.38 1.33 1.80 11.70 -- Other domestic -- -- -- -- - -- Sale of Treasury bills (net) -- -- -- 0.23 0.46 0.46 - /1 From 1967 includes payments from Arab countries under Khartomx Agreement. 72 Figures for Armed Forces expenditure are allocations, not actuals. 73 Includes Jordan Government contribution to Jordan Development Board and Jordan River Corporation which are prim arily. financed by external project aid. 1 Preliminary budget proposals. ource: Central Bank of Jordan; Ministry of Finance. Table 5.2: Goverment Domestic Revenues (In million of Jordan dinars) 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Calendar year Revised Budget Actua 1 s Budget Estimates Propcsals Custom duties 10.7 8.0 8.7 10.6 12.2 9.9 11.8 Excise taxes L.6 b.-h h.s 6.1 6.9 5.2 6.0 Income taxes 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.A 2.6 Other taxes 2.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 Licenses 1.5 1.0 1.) 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.7 Fees 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 Post, telegraph and telephone 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 Interest and profits 2.7 2.1 2.9 h.6 3.0 L.8 L.3 Miscellaneous 3.3 3.9 3.:3 3.8 3.9 2.7 6.1 Total 31.0 2.5 26.3 32.5 3b.5 29.9 37.0 Source: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Jordan Table 5.3 Central Government Development Expenditures (In nillions of Jordan d1rz3) Revised A.ctul udgt -Ltiat Budget0% 1968 1969 1970 1970 1971 Extraordir ry- ¿.}_ _",. Eærgency exponditure L., . 4.0 5.8 2.9 Inveitments and loane4l 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 Grants ard subsidieci/ 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 Miscellaneou3 expenditures/ 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.8 C t 1-e r 8.2 8.8 2.9 2 Direct expenditureý/ 8.2 6.6 7.I 5.4 4.5 Centribution to Jord9n Dýevelopient Board and Jordan River Corporation 2.2 2.1 ".0 O.L Total 17.5 17.5 16.2 18.1 13.9 Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Jordan and Jordan Developmeiit Board. j/ Fxclud-ing development expenditures in Chapters II and III of the Budget i.,Jch cre ccrtinrent on receivin; aid payments fro:n Kuwait and Libya. 2/ Expenditures arising from 1967 war and its consequences. Although not investment expenditures. it is included in the developnEnt budget an it isi not a permanent recurrent co,-rdtment. / rimril for comiensation to parsons who have nuffered dagge to property or financial icss as a result of tho 1967 war and the subseuent conflicts. The 1971 nrovision is deslgned to nav componsation aris:nr from the September 1970 disturbances. l Tn nsos:iqt organiains n Affe#td bhd h +n rovderelief works. C/ Fr r-c1lnf paynenta +,n -persnna dI"plaed lin Ihe197 I-mr &nd Atr .6f To finance nonrecurront expenditure in ninistries, to underteke projects for which external a cnnot be e nd to e debt servicir.d c  Table 6.1: Factors Affecting Changes in Money Supply (In millions of Jordan dinars) eriod 967 1968 1969 1970 Changes in: Mo.ney and quasi-money . hU.7 1O-) 103 Money 19.2 12. 8.2 9.2 Quasi-Mi on2y -1.0 2.0 1.8 1.. .orei,n asset(t)55. - 1.i - .5 Domesticssets (nt)U - 7- L.8 20.1 1.8 Cla1i onI priLvate sector* - U.3 1L.4 5.2 . Claims on public entities 0.3 0.8 - 0.7 - 0.1 Net cIims~ on CO-7eneQn; - - ±1.0 - 0.8 18.6 12.2 Other items (net) 4.4 - 2.1 - 2.9 - 0.4 Changes in per cent: Currency 70 23 13 16 Money 34 17 9 10 Money and quasi-money 24 16 9 9 Claims on priv2.e secto~r - 1 b 13 -- fiIncluding changes in counterpart funds related to the U.S. P.L 480 program. A plus sign denotes a deficit and minus signi a surplus in government transactionis. Sources: Central Bank of Jordan and International MIonetary Fund, International Financial Statistics. Table 6.2: Money and Quasi-Money (In millions of Jordan dinars) End of Period 1966 1967 1966 1909 1970 Currency 30.3 51.5 63.5 71.3 82.4 Demand deposits 25.7 23.7 24.4 24.9 23.0 Time and savinps denosits 19.8 18.8 20.8 22.6 23.7 Tntq1 7L.8 91.0 108-7 118.8 12Q2 Sources: Central Bank of Jordan. Table 7.1: Agricultural Production (In thousands of metric tons) 1965 1966 19657 o96 1969 -L97t Wheat 277.9 101.2 239.7 116.2 159.3 54.1 Barley 94.8 22.8 77.7 24.1 42.5 5.1 Tobacco 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.6 Other Field Crops 64.9 25.4 56.1 19.8 31.3 20.0 Tomatoes 18Ö.9 179.0 259.7 152.9 150.1 107.0 Other Vegetables 23L. 232.2 282.2 85.6 69.1 55.0 Olives 37.h 32.7 64.o 36.3 23.9 28.0 COrAns 79.2 61.9 716 19.3 1L.2 19.0 Oitrus], fris^. 89 61. 3 7. 2i.3 1-. Watermeons 160.0 h?.7 ll< 2$32. Other fruits 60. 5h.3 6J.8 2. 1 27.7 30.n /1 Prelirninary. Sources: 1"nistry of .riculture for the years 1965 and 1966. Department of t) atis t-cS Lor tihe years 17UJ, 17U 1967 ad L7 V Dat fLo L years 1969 and 1970 are for the East Bank only.  Table 9.1: The Amman Cost of Living Index (1967 = 100) Average for All Items Food period 1968 ist quarter 100.9 102.0 2nd quarter 100.3 100.0 3rd quarter 98.1 93.0 hth quarter 98.5 96.2 1969 ist quarter 105.1 114.0 2nd cuarter 107.9 121.5 3rd cuartr ". 6. hth quarter 110.3 1136 i197 i s e r tr 115.2 129.6 2nd quarter 114.1 126.0 3rd quarter 113 1238 hth quarter 116.7 132.9 _____ *T)on nmnt n~ f t5c1i'