WHO global report on trends in prevalence of tobacco smoking 2015

WHO global report on trends in prevalence of tobacco smoking 2015

WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data WHO global report on trends in prevalence of tobacco smoking 2015. 1.Smoking – prevention and control. 2.Smoking – trends. 3.Smoking – epidemiology. I.World Health Organization.

ISBN 978 92 4 156492 2

(NLM classification: WM 290)

© World Health Organization 2015

All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization are available on the WHO website (www.who.int) or can be purchased from WHO Press, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel.: +41 22 791 3264; fax: +41 22 791 4857; e-mail: bookorders@who.int). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications –whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution– should be addressed to WHO Press through the WHO website (www.who.int/about/licensing/copyright_form/en/index.html). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted and dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.

The mention of specific companies or of certain manufacturers’ products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the World Health Organization in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. Errors and omissions excepted, the names of proprietary products are distinguished by initial capital letters. All reasonable precautions have been taken by the World Health Organization to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall the World Health Organization be liable for damages arising from its use.

CONTENTS Introduction Country profiles 1 4

INTRODUCTION Tobacco is the only legal drug that kills many of its users when used exactly as intended by manufacturers. WHO has estimated that tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) is currently responsible for the death of about six million people across the world each year with many of these deaths occurring prematurely. This total includes about 600,000 people are also estimated to die from the effects of second-hand smoke. Although often associated with ill-health, disability and death from noncommunicable chronic diseases, tobacco smoking is also associated with an increased risk of death from communicable diseases. Under a UN mandate to address four noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Assembly established in 2013 a global voluntary tobacco target to help reduce prevent premature avoidable mortality from NCDs. The agreed global tobacco target is a 30% relative reduction in prevalence of current tobacco use in persons aged 15+ years. The setting of this target not only provides a context for the development of policies and programs of actions to attain the target, it also provides an opportunity for policy makers to monitor progress towards achievement of the target over time.

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control To address the global burden of tobacco, the World Health Assembly in 2003 unanimously adopted the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). In force since 2005, the main objective of the WHO FCTC is to protect present and future generations from the devastating health, social, environmental and economic consequences of tobacco consumption and exposure. Ratified by 180 Parties as at March 2015, the WHO FCTC currently covers about 90% of the world's population. It is a legally binding treaty which commits Parties to the Convention to develop and implement a series of evidence-based tobacco control measures to regulate tobacco industry marketing activities and sales reach, reduce the demand for tobacco, and provide agricultural alternatives for those involved in growing and producing tobacco. To assist countries to fulfil their WHO FCTC obligations, in 2008 WHO introduced a package of six evidence-based tobacco control demand reduction measures that are proven to reduce tobacco use. These measures known as the MPOWER package measures reflect one or more provisions of the WHO FCTC. MPOWER refers to M: Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies; P: Protecting people from tobacco smoke; O: Offering help to quit tobacco use; W: Warning about the dangers of tobacco; E: Enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship, and R: Raising taxes on tobacco.

1

Monitoring changes in the magnitude of tobacco use over time The ability to monitor change in any indicator rests on the availability of data to measure the indicator adequately over time. The NCD tobacco target refers to tobacco use which includes both tobacco smoking and smokeless tobacco. The quality and quantity of data on tobacco smoking is enough to allow for an attempt to draw trends in tobacco smoking by country. Smokeless tobacco data, although improving rapidly, are still too scant to allow for derivation of meaningful underlying trends for many countries. For this reason, the work presented in this report focuses only on tobacco smoking. After a careful analysis of data quality and completeness of data availability, WHO plans to undertake a similar exercise for smokeless tobacco, most likely only for a limited number of countries.

Method used for generating the trends in tobacco smoking To generate the trends, WHO worked with a team of epidemiologists and biostatisticians from the University of Newcastle (Australia) and University of Tokyo to generate the underlying trend in tobacco smoking. The trend is based on fitting a Bayesian meta-regression using a negative binomial model. A full description of the method used has been published in The Lancet at

http://www.thelancet.com/series/tobacco-free-world The data for the analysis were obtained from the following WHO databases: WHO FCTC Implementation Database, WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control, WHO Infobase and from other sources. The complete analysis dataset is available upon request. The resulting trend lines are projections not predictions of future attainment. A projection indicates a likely endpoint if the country maintains its tobacco control efforts at the same level that it has implemented to date. Obviously the impact of recent interventions or new interventions that are undertaken as a result of the projection will most likely alter the expected endpoint. Countries like Viet Nam who have reported taking strong tobacco control measures will not capture the impact of their efforts until completing a new survey. The success or otherwise of these actions will only be reflected in the trends once the surveys are completed.

2

Contents of this report This report contains country-specific estimates1 for four indicators: current and daily tobacco smoking and current and daily cigarette smoking, for males and females for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. Estimates were not calculated for countries where there were insufficient data to estimate trends. Age-specific prevalence estimates by sex for current tobacco smoking for 2000, 2010 and 2025 are presented, as well a short history of recent surveys undertaken by the country. The report provides an assessment of the next survey due for the country based on the WHO recommendation to undertake a survey at least once every five years (acknowledging that some countries undertake surveys on a more regular basis). The complete list of national surveys used to calculate the estimates in this report is available on request.

1

The following countries are absent from this report as their profiles are yet to be finalised: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Djibouti, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Palau, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Rwanda, Singapore, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America.

3

Afghanistan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 5,283 6,408 7,359 8,864 10,708 12,750 Women 5,125 6,195 7,236 8,759 10,585 12,563 Both sexes 10,408 12,602 14,596 17,623 21,293 25,313

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Afghanistan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Kabul) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Kabul) 2010 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 8.7 13.1 Girls 8.1 3.2 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Afghanistan.

If Afghanistan adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Albania Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,134 1,169 1,209 1,274 1,306 1,318 Women 1,168 1,179 1,222 1,300 1,338 1,354 Both sexes 2,302 2,348 2,431 2,574 2,645 2,672

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 8.4 7.4 6.5 5.0 3.7 2.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 14.7 12.6 11.8 10.7 10.4 10.3

Lower 95% CI 43.8 44.8 42.9 38.0 31.0 28.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 56.2 54.5 52.8 51.1 50.0 49.6 37.0 67.5 64.8 65.5 66.5 66.8 74.0

Point estimate 11.4 10.1 8.9 7.9 7.0 6.3 6.2

Lower 95% CI 25.8 26.0 24.6 21.3 17.2 15.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.5 32.2 30.7 29.3 28.2 27.7 21.5 40.7 38.6 38.5 38.3 38.3 41.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 770,600 756,200 746,900 753,600 746,700 739,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 4.9 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 16.6 16.2 15.6 12.4 12.4 10.0

Lower 95% CI 28.6 27.9 27.6 21.8 22.4 18.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.2 44.0 42.3 40.9 40.4 39.9 29.6 60.7 58.4 58.7 56.8 61.1 61.8

Point estimate 8.9 7.9 6.9 6.1 5.5 4.9 4.8

Upper 95% CI 12.5 11.3 10.0 9.3 8.9 8.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.8 25.9 24.5 23.3 22.7 22.2 17.1 36.2 34.7 34.2 32.8 34.7 34.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 616,600 607,500 595,600 600,200 601,300 592,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Albania Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 40.3 59.3 64.1 62.3 61.5 Women 9.4 10.0 11.4 15.4 18.2 Total 24.4 34.1 38.3 39.4 36.8 Men 37.8 55.1 59.8 58.2 57.5

Page 2 2010 Women 7.0 7.5 8.7 11.5 13.6 Total 22.9 30.8 33.9 35.1 34.2 Men 34.9 50.3 54.4 53.1 52.5

2025 Women 4.7 5.0 5.8 7.7 9.1 Total 20.6 28.4 29.4 29.5 28.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008-09 2007 2002 Age (years) 15-49 18+ 15-44 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 44.7 58.8 46.3 Women 4.2 11.5 3.0 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Albania Demographic Health Survey Albanian Adult Tobacco Survey Reproductive Health Survey

Assessment and valuation of smoking prevalence among adult population Albaniasmoking and other indicators60.1 related to tobacco 1999-00[+15 years] 15+ and population . . . subgroups . . . in Tobacco 18.3 use . . .

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2004 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.3 ... ... Girls 1.7 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.6 17.3 21.9 Girls 6.7 9.4 12.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of Albania's population smoked (approximately 746,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 28% of the population (approximately 739,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 53% of men and about 9% of women smoked in Albania. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 50% for men and 6% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Albania adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Albania will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Algeria Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 10,494 12,157 13,608 14,645 15,516 16,826 Women 10,378 11,997 13,403 14,455 15,366 16,705 Both sexes 20,872 24,154 27,011 29,100 30,882 33,531

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Algeria Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 Age (years) 15+ Smokeless use Men 9.8 Women 0.8 . . . Tobacco type Current use Men ... Women ... Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Algeria Adult Tobacco Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Constantine) 2013 2011 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.9 ... ... Girls 0.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.4 20.3 25.5 Girls 2.6 2.2 5.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Algeria.

#VALUE!

If Algeria adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Andorra Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 28 35 33 34 36 37 Women 28 35 33 34 36 37 Both sexes 56 69 66 69 71 73

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 20.7 19.7 18.6 15.7 12.8 9.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 37.8 34.2 33.1 32.0 32.3 32.2

Lower 95% CI 31.8 32.2 29.4 23.3 20.7 16.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 42.4 40.1 37.7 35.4 33.4 31.7 26.4 54.7 50.9 49.4 46.9 48.7 49.9

Point estimate 28.6 27.0 25.2 23.6 22.1 21.0 17.6

Lower 95% CI 26.3 26.0 24.0 19.5 16.8 12.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.5 33.5 31.5 29.4 27.8 26.3 22.0 46.3 42.6 41.3 39.5 40.5 41.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 19,800 23,200 20,900 20,300 19,800 19,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.7 15.5 13.8 12.4 10.2 8.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.9 20.1 17.5 16.4 13.6 11.3

Lower 95% CI 23.1 24.7 21.2 20.3 16.9 14.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.1 34.1 31.8 30.1 28.3 26.7 22.3 48.7 44.8 41.2 42.1 42.0 44.1

Point estimate 24.0 22.7 21.3 19.8 18.6 17.6 14.9

Upper 95% CI 33.8 29.9 28.0 27.4 26.9 27.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.0 28.5 26.5 24.9 23.4 22.2 18.6 41.3 37.4 34.6 34.8 34.5 35.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 16,700 19,700 17,600 17,200 16,700 16,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Andorra Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 48.2 48.3 43.9 34.1 25.9 Women 41.5 37.7 28.3 17.8 11.4 Total 44.9 43.0 36.1 26.0 18.7 Men 43.3 43.4 39.4 30.6 23.3

Page 2 2010 Women 37.9 34.3 25.8 16.2 10.4 Total 40.6 38.8 32.6 23.4 16.8 Men 37.9 37.9 34.4 26.8 20.4

2025 Women 34.5 31.1 23.4 14.7 9.4 Total 36.2 34.5 28.9 20.7 14.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2002 1997 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 37.4 42.2 44.0 Women 27.7 30.2 28.0 Daily use Men Women 35.3 ... ... 25.5 ... ...

Survey name Enquesta Nacional de Salut d'Andorra Enquesta Nacional de Salut d'Andorra Enquesta Nacional de Salut d’Andorra

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name No known surveys Age (years) Smokeless use Boys Girls Tobacco type Current use Boys Girls Daily use Boys Girls

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

X #N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X

X #N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of Andorra's population smoked (approximately 20,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 26% of the population (approximately 19,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of men and about 25% of women smoked in Andorra. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 32% for men and 21% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Andorra adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Andorra will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Angola Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,562 4,225 4,997 5,938 7,096 8,447 Women 3,730 4,415 5,206 6,159 7,328 8,693 Both sexes 7,292 8,640 10,203 12,097 14,425 17,140

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Angola Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Huambo) 2010 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 18.0 Girls 19.0 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.2 Girls 18.6 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Angola.

If Angola adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Antigua and Barbuda Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 25 28 30 33 35 37 Women 30 31 34 37 39 42 Both sexes 55 59 64 70 74 79

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Antigua and Barbuda Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Barbuda) 2009 2009 2009 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 8.4 ... ... Girls 5.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.3 13.4 24.6 Girls 15.9 9.8 5.0 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Antigua and Barbuda.

If Antigua and Barbuda adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Argentina Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 12,835 13,738 14,644 15,516 16,308 17,130 Women 13,763 14,737 15,687 16,583 17,388 18,211 Both sexes 26,598 28,475 30,331 32,099 33,696 35,341

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 24.9 21.2 17.1 13.5 10.0 7.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 41.1 31.5 25.4 22.0 18.7 16.2

Lower 95% CI 33.3 30.9 27.7 23.1 18.7 14.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 43.5 38.0 33.2 29.3 25.8 22.7 23.2 54.8 45.6 39.3 36.3 34.0 31.1

Point estimate 32.7 26.5 21.4 17.5 14.2 11.6 15.0

Lower 95% CI 29.0 25.9 22.2 18.1 14.2 10.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.9 32.0 27.1 23.2 19.8 17.0 19.0 47.7 38.3 32.1 28.9 26.1 23.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 10,083,700 9,125,800 8,218,700 7,448,200 6,676,500 6,001,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 17.0 15.1 12.1 9.7 7.0 5.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.9 18.0 15.7 12.9 10.1 7.8

Lower 95% CI 23.0 21.1 19.5 16.3 13.5 10.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.1 27.3 23.8 21.0 18.5 16.2 16.7 39.2 33.2 28.5 25.7 24.0 22.6

Point estimate 23.7 19.2 15.5 12.6 10.3 8.3 10.9

Upper 95% CI 30.3 23.2 18.3 15.5 13.4 12.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.3 23.1 19.5 16.7 14.3 12.1 13.7 34.6 28.0 23.2 20.4 18.5 17.1

Estimated no. of daily smokers 7,253,500 6,580,000 5,916,700 5,347,800 4,807,900 4,286,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Argentina Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 42.6 48.7 49.6 37.5 19.2 Women 34.6 38.7 39.4 25.4 10.6 Total 38.6 43.7 44.3 31.0 13.9 Men 32.5 37.2 37.8 28.7 14.3

Page 2 2010 Women 22.8 25.6 25.9 16.9 6.8 Total 27.7 31.4 31.7 22.4 9.6 Men 22.4 25.7 26.1 19.7 9.9

2025 Women 12.6 14.1 14.4 9.2 3.7 Total 17.6 20.0 20.2 14.2 6.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 2009 2005 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 18+ 16-64 Smokeless use Men 0.1 ... ... ... Women 0.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 29.4 32.4 35.1 45.7 Women 15.6 22.4 24.9 34.4 Daily use Men Women 21.9 25.1 26.2 ... 12.7 17.6 18.6 ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo

Estudio Nacional sobre consumo de sustancias adictivas en Argentina 1999

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2012 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 4.4 ... 5.5 Girls 3.0 Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking 3.2 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 22.7 17.0 26.1 Girls 25.4 20.5 29.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of Argentina's population smoked (approximately 8,218,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 17% of the population (approximately 6,001,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 33% of men and about 21% of women smoked in Argentina. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 23% for men and 12% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Argentina adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Argentina will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Armenia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,035 1,118 1,176 1,190 1,200 1,234 Women 1,245 1,236 1,179 1,195 1,198 1,217 Both sexes 2,281 2,355 2,356 2,384 2,398 2,451

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7

Lower 95% CI 54.7 51.1 45.2 42.0 37.1 32.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 66.3 60.1 55.8 52.6 49.3 45.3 39.1 79.3 71.4 65.0 63.2 62.8 60.1

Point estimate 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3

Lower 95% CI 26.0 25.2 23.3 21.6 19.0 16.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.6 29.7 28.8 27.1 25.4 23.4 20.2 37.8 35.3 33.6 32.5 32.4 31.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 720,100 699,200 678,700 645,000 608,300 573,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 21.4 20.3 19.5 18.0 15.8 14.2

Lower 95% CI 45.5 41.4 38.1 35.2 30.8 27.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 59.1 53.4 49.8 46.8 43.6 40.2 34.9 73.2 65.5 60.7 59.2 56.3 55.9

Point estimate 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1

Upper 95% CI 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.0 26.3 25.6 24.0 22.4 20.7 17.9 34.7 32.3 31.3 30.4 29.0 28.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 638,100 618,100 603,400 571,200 536,300 507,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Armenia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 45.2 76.5 78.9 66.8 56.7 Women 1.3 2.5 3.8 3.4 2.4 Total 22.6 36.3 37.8 31.6 22.9 Men 39.3 63.5 65.9 57.8 47.1

Page 2 2010 Women 0.9 1.6 2.7 2.5 1.7 Total 21.9 33.6 33.4 28.4 20.6 Men 30.3 51.3 52.3 44.6 36.9

2025 Women 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.0 Total 17.6 28.1 27.1 21.3 15.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2010 2010 2008-09 2005 Age (years) 16+ 15-49 18+ 16+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 50.9 63.0 58.9 55.7 60.5 Women 3.2 1.6 1.9 2.9 1.7 Daily use Men Women 48.7 ... ... 51.3 ... 2.0 ... ... 1.4 ...

Survey name Health System Performance Assessment Armenia Demographic and Health Survey Health in Times of Transition Study Health System Performance Assessment (HSPA) - Armenia Armenia Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 2004 Age (years) 15-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 6.0 ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking 3.0 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.0 10.9 13.0 Girls 1.4 4.3 2.7 Daily use Boys 8.0 ... ... Girls 1.0 ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of Armenia's population smoked (approximately 678,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 573,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 56% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Armenia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 45% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Armenia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Armenia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Australia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 7,509 8,109 8,974 9,549 10,105 10,699 Women 7,756 8,358 9,187 9,789 10,387 11,034 Both sexes 15,265 16,467 18,160 19,339 20,491 21,733

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 17.3 15.1 12.3 9.7 7.9 5.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 26.4 21.7 17.6 14.7 12.9 10.7

Lower 95% CI 21.7 18.7 16.0 12.9 10.3 8.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.0 22.7 19.2 16.3 13.8 11.7 13.4 32.1 26.5 22.9 19.8 17.1 15.5

Point estimate 22.0 18.3 15.0 12.4 10.2 8.4 10.5

Lower 95% CI 19.5 16.9 14.1 11.3 9.1 7.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.5 20.5 17.1 14.3 12.0 10.0 12.0 29.2 24.1 20.2 17.2 15.0 13.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,733,700 3,370,200 3,101,000 2,770,400 2,453,900 2,178,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.2 13.5 10.9 8.8 6.9 5.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 17.4 14.7 12.1 10.0 7.8 6.0

Lower 95% CI 18.7 16.0 13.3 11.2 8.8 6.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.8 19.2 16.3 13.8 11.7 9.9 11.4 27.2 22.5 19.2 16.7 14.8 13.1

Point estimate 19.4 15.9 13.2 10.9 8.9 7.4 9.2

Upper 95% CI 23.5 18.9 15.6 13.1 11.4 9.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.1 17.5 14.7 12.3 10.3 8.6 10.3 25.3 20.7 17.4 14.9 13.1 11.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,216,600 2,885,800 2,675,400 2,384,800 2,106,700 1,875,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Australia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 21.1 33.9 30.4 22.9 14.3 Women 20.8 28.4 24.4 17.1 10.4 Total 21.0 31.1 27.4 20.0 12.1 Men 15.5 24.5 22.0 16.5 10.2

Page 2 2010 Women 14.6 19.7 16.9 11.9 7.1 Total 15.0 22.1 19.4 14.2 8.5 Men 9.5 15.3 13.8 10.2 6.3

2025 Women 8.4 11.4 9.8 6.8 4.2 Total 9.0 13.4 11.8 8.5 5.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2011-12 2010 2007-08 2007 Age (years) 14+ 15+ 14+ 15+ 14+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 18.3 20.3 19.9 22.2 21.1 Women 13.4 16.0 16.3 18.0 17.7 Daily use Men Women 14.5 18.3 16.4 20.2 18.0 11.2 14.3 13.9 16.4 15.2

Survey name National Drug Strategy Household Survey Australian Health Survey National Drug Strategy Household Survey National Health Survey National Drug Strategy Household Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Australian Secondary School Students Alcohol and Drug Survey (ASSAD) 2011 Australian Secondary School Students Alcohol and Drug Survey (ASSAD) 2008 Australian Secondary School Students Alcohol and Drug Survey (ASSAD) 2005 Age (years) 12-15 12-15 12-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 5.7 6.6 8.8 Girls 5.5 8.1 9.7 Daily use Boys 1.0 1.3 2.2 Girls 0.9 1.2 2.1

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 17% of Australia's population smoked (approximately 3,101,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 10% of the population (approximately 2,178,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 19% of men and about 15% of women smoked in Australia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 12% for men and 8% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Australia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Australia will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Azerbaijan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,664 3,049 3,407 3,640 3,800 3,976 Women 2,931 3,287 3,624 3,838 3,985 4,149 Both sexes 5,595 6,336 7,031 7,478 7,785 8,125

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6

Lower 95% CI 33.6 26.5 24.8 21.4 19.6 15.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 57.8 53.4 49.3 46.2 43.3 40.9 34.5 100.0 87.7 79.4 76.3 78.3 74.6

Point estimate 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4

Lower 95% CI 16.2 12.9 12.1 10.5 9.6 7.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.8 26.0 24.1 22.7 21.3 20.2 16.9 48.2 42.7 38.9 37.5 38.5 36.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,557,600 1,644,500 1,697,700 1,697,100 1,661,500 1,638,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 8.8 7.3 8.1 7.5 6.0 5.0

Lower 95% CI 18.3 15.1 16.7 15.4 12.2 10.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.6 42.5 39.4 36.7 34.6 32.8 27.6 83.9 70.5 68.2 63.8 61.3 60.4

Point estimate 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

Upper 95% CI 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.5 20.7 19.2 18.0 17.0 16.2 13.5 40.4 34.3 33.4 31.3 30.2 29.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,256,200 1,308,900 1,353,200 1,347,500 1,326,900 1,312,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Azerbaijan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 52.3 57.5 61.5 63.0 63.1 Women 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Total 26.2 27.5 30.5 29.0 24.2 Men 44.6 48.6 52.7 53.9 54.4

Page 2 2010 Women 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Total 22.6 24.3 25.4 25.3 22.6 Men 36.3 39.8 42.7 43.7 44.2

2025 Women 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total 19.5 20.4 21.0 20.0 17.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2010 2006 2001 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15-59 15-44 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 35.3 35.0 49.6 ... Women 0.0 0.0 ... 0.6 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Household Budget Survey Household Budget Survey Azerbaijan Demographic and Health Survey Reproductive Health Survey, Azerbaijan

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.4 Girls 2.1 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Azerbaijan's population smoked (approximately 1,697,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 20% of the population (approximately 1,638,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 49% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Azerbaijan. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 41% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Azerbaijan adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Azerbaijan will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Bahamas Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 101 118 135 148 157 165 Women 109 127 144 158 167 176 Both sexes 211 245 279 307 324 341

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bahamas Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2005 Age (years) 15-74 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 12.4 Women 2.4 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Bahamas CNCD Prevalence Study and Risk Factor Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2009 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.3 7.5 ... Girls 3.1 Tobacco smoking 5.5 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 16.0 17.8 12.9 Girls 10.7 15.1 10.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Bahamas.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2005, shows that around 12% of men and around 2% of women aged 15-74 smoked in Bahamas. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Bahamas adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Bahrain Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 276 405 654 690 766 826 Women 186 238 349 376 415 457 Both sexes 462 643 1,003 1,066 1,181 1,283

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.7 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 5.7 6.6 8.1 10.2 14.0 19.3

Lower 95% CI 14.1 19.3 26.7 32.7 46.5 60.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.4 25.0 35.3 49.4 68.6 87.2 24.7 23.1 30.2 44.0 66.7 100.0 100.0

Point estimate 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.9 8.5 10.7 4.0

Lower 95% CI 9.5 13.5 18.8 22.6 31.5 40.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.7 17.5 25.0 34.4 47.5 59.9 17.5 16.1 21.5 31.5 46.8 69.8 71.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 58,600 112,700 250,700 367,000 560,800 769,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 8.2 11.9 16.3 20.7 26.1 34.9

Lower 95% CI 12.2 17.3 23.5 30.3 38.5 52.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.6 22.9 32.0 44.5 62.6 82.0 22.4 21.4 28.2 40.7 60.1 93.8 100.0

Point estimate 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.7 7.1 8.9 3.3

Upper 95% CI 4.8 5.3 6.5 8.4 11.9 16.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.3 15.9 22.5 30.8 43.1 56.0 15.7 14.7 19.7 28.8 41.9 65.0 70.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 52,200 102,300 225,600 328,700 509,000 717,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bahrain Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 16.3 18.9 18.9 18.6 18.5 Women 3.0 3.6 5.1 7.4 8.3 Total 10.2 13.0 14.0 13.5 13.4 Men 31.5 36.1 36.1 35.6 35.5

Page 2 2010 Women 4.0 4.8 7.1 9.9 11.3 Total 19.5 26.4 26.2 25.7 23.4 Men 80.5 88.5 88.3 87.4 86.1

2025 Women 6.7 8.2 11.8 16.8 18.9 Total 47.4 67.0 59.4 55.5 51.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 2001 Age (years) 20-64 15+ 30-79 19+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 33.4 15.0 ... 29.5 22.4 Women 7.0 3.1 ... 18.6 0.9 Daily use Men Women 30.6 ... 32.1 ... ... 5.7 ... 20.7 ... ...

Survey name National Non-Communicable Diseases Risk Factor Survey Census of population, housing, buildings and establishments National nutrition survey for adult Bahrainis Bahrain Family Health Survey (BFHS)

Lifestyle patterns in smokers and non-smokers in the state of Bahrain 1999 1998-99 1995

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2003 2001 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 33.5 28.0 Girls 11.9 11.7 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of Bahrain's population smoked (approximately 250,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 60% of the population (approximately 769,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 35% of men and about 6% of women smoked in Bahrain. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 87% for men and 11% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Bahrain adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Bahrain will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Bangladesh Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 43,281 48,356 52,276 57,280 62,313 66,699 Women 40,152 45,687 50,997 56,671 62,243 67,219 Both sexes 83,432 94,043 103,273 113,951 124,556 133,919

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 7.4 3.3 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3

Lower 95% CI 45.9 43.6 37.6 29.9 23.2 18.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 61.7 52.9 45.9 39.5 34.3 29.8 32.1 76.1 62.7 54.9 49.3 45.3 42.4

Point estimate 5.4 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.8

Lower 95% CI 25.6 23.3 19.4 15.2 11.7 9.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.6 28.5 23.8 20.2 17.3 14.9 16.7 43.0 33.8 28.6 25.2 22.9 21.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 28,872,400 26,768,300 24,606,800 22,965,700 21,560,100 20,010,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 23.1 20.3 17.3 13.8 11.1 8.2

Lower 95% CI 42.0 37.9 33.5 27.1 22.0 16.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 55.6 47.7 41.2 35.4 30.9 26.8 28.8 70.4 57.0 49.6 44.9 41.8 37.8

Point estimate 4.6 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.8

Upper 95% CI 6.3 2.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.1 25.6 21.4 18.0 15.6 13.4 15.0 39.6 30.7 25.8 23.0 21.1 18.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 25,911,100 24,071,100 22,098,800 20,560,500 19,441,400 17,942,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bangladesh Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 45.6 69.2 78.4 62.8 46.9 Women 3.4 4.3 6.8 10.6 12.6 Total 24.9 37.7 45.3 38.0 30.9 Men 33.5 50.6 57.5 45.9 34.3

Page 2 2010 Women 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.4 2.9 Total 17.3 25.4 30.6 25.3 19.3 Men 21.4 32.2 36.4 29.2 21.6

2025 Women 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 Total 10.9 16.0 17.7 15.0 11.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2007-09 2007 2004 2004 Age (years) 25+ 15+ 15-54 15-54 15+ Smokeless use Men 29.4 26.4 19.8 5.8 14.8 Women 33.6 Tobacco smoking 27.9 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 24.4 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 54.8 44.7 60.0 49.4 41.0 Women 1.3 1.5 ... ... 1.8 Daily use Men Women 53.3 40.7 ... ... ... 1.1 1.3 ... ... ...

Survey name Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Bangladesh Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey Impact of Tobacco-related illnesses in Bangladesh

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Dhaka) 2013 2007 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.9 5.8 ... Girls 2.0 Any tobacco use 4.2 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 9.2 9.1 5.9 Girls 2.8 5.1 4.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Bangladesh's population smoked (approximately 24,606,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 15% of the population (approximately 20,010,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 46% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Bangladesh. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 30% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Bangladesh adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Bangladesh will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Barbados Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 102 107 112 116 119 122 Women 106 110 114 118 121 124 Both sexes 209 217 226 234 240 247

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1

Lower 95% CI 8.0 9.2 8.2 6.8 5.5 4.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.7 9.1 19.2 18.2 18.0 19.0 20.8 23.6

Point estimate 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8

Lower 95% CI 4.3 4.8 4.3 3.6 2.9 2.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 4.9 10.8 10.0 9.8 10.2 11.0 12.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 15,900 15,900 15,800 15,900 16,100 16,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.5

Lower 95% CI 6.0 5.8 5.3 4.7 3.4 3.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.8 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.9 9.0 6.4 14.8 13.1 12.9 13.8 14.8 16.8

Point estimate 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6

Upper 95% CI 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 3.5 8.4 7.3 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 11,400 11,200 11,200 11,400 11,400 11,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Barbados Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 15.4 14.9 13.0 11.4 11.7 Women 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 Total 9.0 8.5 7.3 6.1 5.6 Men 14.7 14.3 12.3 10.9 11.2

Page 2 2010 Women 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Total 8.3 8.0 6.7 5.7 5.0 Men 14.7 14.3 12.3 10.8 11.2

2025 Women 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 Total 7.8 7.8 6.6 5.5 5.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 1992 Age (years) 25+ 15-59 Smokeless use Men <1% ... Women 0.6 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 14.2 18.0 Women 1.6 2.6 Daily use Men Women 9.4 ... 0.9 ...

Survey name Barbados STEPS Survey Barbados Risk Factor Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2007 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 11.5 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 8.2 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 18.4 34.5 16.9 Girls 9.7 23.2 12.9 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 7% of Barbados's population smoked (approximately 15,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 7% of the population (approximately 16,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 13% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Barbados. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 13% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Barbados adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Barbados will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Belarus Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,728 3,736 3,689 3,543 3,405 3,313 Women 4,393 4,427 4,393 4,258 4,123 4,032 Both sexes 8,121 8,163 8,082 7,801 7,528 7,345

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 9.4 8.6 8.0 7.0 5.9 4.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 14.8 13.0 12.2 11.3 11.3 10.7

Lower 95% CI 51.1 47.1 42.6 36.1 30.0 23.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 64.4 57.7 51.6 46.9 42.4 38.0 36.1 79.4 69.2 61.2 57.8 55.6 51.6

Point estimate 12.1 11.0 10.0 9.2 8.4 7.6 7.0

Lower 95% CI 28.5 26.2 23.8 20.2 16.8 13.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.1 32.4 29.0 26.3 23.8 21.3 20.3 44.5 38.7 34.6 32.4 31.3 29.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,932,200 2,642,900 2,342,800 2,053,400 1,790,000 1,565,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 22.6 20.9 18.2 16.1 13.3 11.0

Lower 95% CI 42.5 39.0 33.7 30.0 24.7 20.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 54.7 48.8 43.9 39.6 35.9 32.2 30.7 68.2 59.4 53.2 51.0 48.4 45.9

Point estimate 8.4 7.6 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.2 4.9

Upper 95% CI 10.7 9.5 8.9 8.6 8.2 7.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.7 26.5 23.8 21.5 19.4 17.4 16.7 37.1 32.3 29.1 27.9 26.4 24.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,408,100 2,159,800 1,926,900 1,675,600 1,461,500 1,276,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Belarus Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 54.0 71.0 71.5 59.9 50.7 Women 14.8 18.5 12.7 6.1 4.1 Total 34.8 44.6 40.9 28.5 18.1 Men 43.8 56.6 56.9 48.9 40.2

Page 2 2010 Women 12.7 15.8 10.3 5.5 3.5 Total 28.7 36.1 32.4 23.9 14.4 Men 31.6 41.9 41.8 35.2 29.7

2025 Women 10.1 12.7 8.5 4.2 2.8 Total 21.2 27.5 24.5 17.2 10.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 48.6 42.8 51.1 52.3 51.3 Women 9.7 13.2 9.8 9.3 16.3 Daily use Men Women 45.0 ... 46.8 47.3 41.3 7.3 ... 7.3 6.5 7.5

Survey name Health in Times of Transition Study Sample Survey of Households Sample Survey of Households

выборочное обследование домашних хозяйств по уровню жизни (Sample survey 2013 16+ of households . . . living standards) . . . Tobacco smoking 2010 2009 2008 18+ 16+ 16+ 16+

Survey for evaluating healthy lifestyles programs in the Republic of Belarus 2006

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2004 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 3.7 Girls 2.5 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 31.6 Girls 22.2 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of Belarus's population smoked (approximately 2,342,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 21% of the population (approximately 1,565,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 52% of men and about 10% of women smoked in Belarus. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 38% for men and 8% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Belarus adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Belarus will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Belgium Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,098 4,225 4,426 4,511 4,579 4,667 Women 4,367 4,488 4,680 4,753 4,808 4,888 Both sexes 8,465 8,713 9,106 9,264 9,387 9,554

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 14.6 14.2 13.2 11.5 10.4 9.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 32.2 29.2 28.6 26.2 25.5 25.4

Lower 95% CI 24.0 22.9 20.0 16.9 13.7 10.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.8 31.1 28.1 25.4 23.0 21.0 19.7 47.4 42.5 38.7 36.5 35.0 33.6

Point estimate 23.0 21.4 20.0 18.6 17.5 16.4 14.0

Lower 95% CI 19.2 18.4 16.5 14.1 12.0 10.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.7 26.1 23.9 21.9 20.2 18.6 16.8 39.6 35.6 33.5 31.2 30.1 29.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,430,600 2,274,400 2,179,600 2,029,900 1,894,600 1,781,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 11.5 11.3 10.2 8.9 7.9 7.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 15.3 14.3 12.6 10.7 9.0 7.7

Lower 95% CI 19.4 17.4 15.2 12.5 10.1 8.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.3 25.6 23.2 20.9 19.0 17.2 16.2 40.2 34.5 32.7 30.5 29.1 28.4

Point estimate 19.0 17.6 16.5 15.4 14.4 13.6 11.6

Upper 95% CI 26.9 25.3 23.8 22.2 22.0 21.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.5 21.5 19.8 18.1 16.6 15.4 13.8 33.3 29.8 28.1 26.2 25.5 24.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,989,600 1,871,400 1,799,000 1,674,800 1,562,400 1,467,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Belgium Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 38.0 38.3 35.9 30.3 26.3 Women 27.1 26.3 24.0 19.8 16.8 Total 32.7 32.4 30.0 24.9 20.4 Men 31.1 31.4 29.3 24.9 21.3

Page 2 2010 Women 23.8 23.1 20.9 17.5 14.6 Total 27.5 27.2 25.1 21.1 17.3 Men 23.7 23.9 22.3 18.8 16.3

2025 Women 19.9 19.3 17.5 14.5 12.2 Total 21.9 21.6 19.9 16.6 14.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2008 2004 2001 1997 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.2 28.6 32.5 34.0 37.1 Women 19.9 20.7 23.0 23.5 23.5 Daily use Men Women 21.6 23.6 28.0 28.6 31.2 16.4 17.7 19.7 19.9 19.7

Survey name Health Interview Survey, Belgium Health Interview Survey, Belgium Health Interview Survey, Belgium Health Interview Survey, Belgium Health Interview Survey, Belgium

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (French) Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (Flemish Region) Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (Flemish Region) 2010 2010 2002 Age (years) 15-15 15-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.0 16.0 23.1 Girls 16.0 15.0 23.3 Daily use Boys 12.0 11.0 18.3 Girls 11.0 11.0 19.1

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Belgium's population smoked (approximately 2,179,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 1,781,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of men and about 20% of women smoked in Belgium. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 21% for men and 16% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Belgium adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Belgium will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Belize Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 71 84 99 116 133 150 Women 72 85 100 118 135 153 Both sexes 143 169 199 233 268 303

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Belize Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men 17.7 Women 1.4 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name

The Central American Diabetes Initiative: Survey of Diabetes, Hypertension Non-Communicable Factors smoking 2005-06 and 20+ . . . Disease . Risk . . Cigarette

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.8 ... Girls 5.5 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.8 22.6 Girls 15.3 13.5 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Belize.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2005-06, shows that around 18% of men and around 1% of women aged 20+ smoked in Belize. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Belize adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Benin Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,830 2,221 2,651 3,109 3,637 4,220 Women 1,962 2,319 2,729 3,184 3,703 4,276 Both sexes 3,792 4,540 5,381 6,293 7,340 8,497

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2

Lower 95% CI 7.1 8.9 10.3 11.8 12.3 11.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.3 12.7 14.4 16.3 18.7 21.5 10.1 16.4 16.9 18.3 21.4 27.3 34.0

Point estimate 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8

Lower 95% CI 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.3 5.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.2 6.8 7.7 8.5 9.7 11.0 5.4 9.1 9.2 9.8 11.2 14.1 17.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 236,300 309,900 411,800 535,500 709,700 937,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.3

Lower 95% CI 6.0 6.9 8.2 8.9 9.1 8.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.5 10.7 12.0 13.7 15.7 18.1 8.4 14.1 14.2 15.6 18.4 22.9 28.4

Point estimate 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6

Upper 95% CI 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 5.2 5.7 6.3 7.1 8.1 9.2 4.4 7.8 7.7 8.3 9.6 11.9 14.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 197,400 260,800 340,000 448,300 593,200 785,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Benin Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 8.8 11.2 14.3 15.0 15.2 Women 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 Total 5.0 6.2 7.8 7.6 7.3 Men 11.2 14.1 18.1 19.0 19.2

Page 2 2010 Women 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 Total 6.0 7.5 9.6 9.5 8.6 Men 16.5 20.9 26.8 28.1 28.4

2025 Women 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 Total 8.6 10.7 13.7 14.1 12.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 2008 2006 2001 Age (years) 15-49 25-64 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... 12.7 ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking 5.7 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Men 8.1 15.8 ... ... Women 0.2 1.7 0.1 3.2 Daily use Men Women 7.7 14.0 ... ... ... 1.2 ... ...

Survey name Enquête Démographique et de Santé au Bénin L'Enquete STEPS Au Benin Enquête Démographique et de Santé au Bénin Enquête Démographique et de Santé au Bénin

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Atlantique Littoral) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Borgou Alibori) 2009 2003 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.1 ... ... Girls 1.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 4.7 14.6 29.3 Girls 2.2 5.8 11.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 8% of Benin's population smoked (approximately 411,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 937,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 14% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Benin. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 22% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Benin adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Benin will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Bhutan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 174 235 276 310 333 354 Women 161 195 227 256 281 304 Both sexes 335 429 504 566 614 658

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bhutan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2009 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 25.0 14.1 14.5 Girls 18.9 Any tobacco use 5.3 Any tobacco use 6.0 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 39.0 27.6 28.6 Girls 23.2 11.6 12.4 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A X

#N/A

X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A X

#N/A

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Bhutan.

If Bhutan adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Bolivia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,506 2,831 3,201 3,590 3,990 4,373 Women 2,607 2,939 3,295 3,672 4,062 4,442 Both sexes 5,113 5,770 6,496 7,262 8,052 8,815

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Upper 95% CI 76.8 63.9 56.1 51.4 46.2 42.8

Both sexes Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI 39.5 32.7 29.0 26.7 25.3 22.8 25.7 20.5 15.4 11.9 8.9 6.1

Lower 95% CI 34.6 26.8 19.2 14.8 10.2 7.1

Point estimate 51.6 43.3 36.3 30.8 26.3 22.6 25.4

Lower 95% CI 17.1 14.5 11.8 9.0 7.6 5.1

Point estimate 26.6 23.0 19.8 17.2 15.1 13.2 13.9

Point estimate 38.9 33.0 27.9 23.9 20.7 17.9 19.6

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI current smokers 57.8 48.0 42.4 38.9 35.7 32.7 1,986,600 1,901,700 1,814,300 1,737,300 1,662,800 1,574,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Upper 95% CI 58.2 49.7 43.2 40.0 35.2 32.7

Both sexes Point estimate 27.5 23.2 19.8 17.0 14.6 12.6 13.9

Lower 95% CI 18.3 14.9 12.5 9.7 5.8 4.3

Point estimate 37.1 31.0 26.2 22.3 18.9 16.3 18.3

Lower 95% CI 8.9 7.2 6.8 4.8 3.4 2.8

Point estimate 18.2 15.7 13.6 11.8 10.3 9.0 9.5

Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI 29.1 24.8 22.1 19.3 17.7 16.3 13.5 11.0 9.6 7.2 4.6 3.5

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI daily smokers 43.4 37.0 32.5 29.5 26.4 24.4 1,404,200 1,339,000 1,286,800 1,233,900 1,172,500 1,112,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bolivia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 52.1 53.3 51.8 47.0 42.5 Women 26.4 27.7 27.5 24.1 21.7 Total 39.4 40.3 39.3 34.9 30.8 Men 36.7 37.5 36.5 33.2 29.9

Page 2 2010 Women 19.7 20.7 20.5 18.0 16.1 Total 28.3 29.0 28.3 25.1 22.1 Men 22.9 23.4 22.8 20.7 18.7

2025 Women 13.2 13.9 13.7 12.0 10.8 Total 18.1 18.7 18.2 16.1 14.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15+ 15-49 15-49 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 37.4 ... ... 40.7 Women 17.2 8.6 29.6 18.3 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Encuesta Nacional de Demografia y Salud (ENDSA) Encuesta Nacional de Demografia y Salud, Bolivia

Centro Latinoamericano de Investigacio´n Cienti´fica (CELIN) - Bolivia 2010 2008 2003

Centro Latinoamericano de Investigacio´n Cienti´fica (CELIN) - Bolivia 2000

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (La Paz) 2012 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.9 24.7 Girls 16.4 16.6 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of Bolivia's population smoked (approximately 1,814,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 18% of the population (approximately 1,574,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 36% of men and about 20% of women smoked in Bolivia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 23% for men and 13% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Bolivia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Bolivia will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,460 1,511 1,536 1,575 1,583 1,557 Women 1,601 1,635 1,641 1,683 1,692 1,662 Both sexes 3,061 3,147 3,177 3,257 3,275 3,219

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 26.3 25.1 22.6 20.0 16.4 13.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 44.3 40.0 38.8 39.4 40.1 41.2

Lower 95% CI 43.7 41.3 36.8 31.1 26.5 21.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 58.0 53.7 49.6 46.6 43.8 41.5 34.7 72.5 65.0 62.5 62.0 64.6 65.0

Point estimate 35.7 33.0 30.8 28.9 27.4 26.1 21.6

Lower 95% CI 34.6 32.9 29.5 25.4 21.3 17.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.3 42.9 39.9 37.5 35.3 33.5 27.9 57.7 52.0 50.3 50.3 51.9 52.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,418,500 1,351,200 1,267,300 1,220,000 1,157,000 1,080,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 21.0 19.8 16.9 14.6 11.9 9.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 28.1 27.3 23.2 19.4 16.7 12.6

Lower 95% CI 35.8 35.5 30.0 24.5 21.8 15.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 48.8 45.1 41.9 39.1 36.6 34.7 29.3 60.4 55.9 53.6 54.2 55.8 56.0

Point estimate 27.8 25.8 24.1 22.6 21.4 20.3 16.9

Upper 95% CI 36.6 32.6 31.2 30.9 31.6 32.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.8 35.1 32.7 30.6 28.7 27.3 22.9 48.0 43.8 42.0 42.2 43.3 43.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,157,600 1,103,500 1,039,100 995,900 941,500 877,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bosnia and Herzegovina Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 54.5 61.7 62.4 53.2 45.4 Women 34.2 39.7 39.3 30.8 25.7 Total 44.4 50.3 50.7 41.1 33.3 Men 47.2 53.2 53.9 46.3 39.2

Page 2 2010 Women 30.2 34.8 34.4 27.2 22.7 Total 39.0 43.9 44.1 35.9 29.7 Men 40.0 45.0 45.4 39.1 32.7

2025 Women 26.1 30.1 29.7 23.5 19.4 Total 33.2 37.7 37.4 31.0 24.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 18+ 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 46.9 39.3 54.2 60.0 Women 34.5 27.1 34.2 36.4 Daily use Men Women 35.0 ... 46.6 49.3 22.5 ... 24.9 29.8

Survey name Bosnia and Herzegovina MICS World Health Survey, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Survey of the Health Satus of the Population of the Federation of B&H 2012 2011-12 2003

Non-communicable disease risk factor survey Federation of Bosnia 2002 and Herzegovina 25-64

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.2 ... Girls 0.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 16.3 15.1 Girls 10.5 9.9 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 40% of Bosnia and Herzegovina's population smoked (approximately 1,267,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 34% of the population (approximately 1,080,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 50% of men and about 31% of women smoked in Bosnia and Herzegovina. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 42% for men and 26% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Bosnia and Herzegovina adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Bosnia and Herzegovina will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Botswana Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 532 596 646 694 745 799 Women 550 609 648 682 719 763 Both sexes 1,082 1,205 1,295 1,377 1,464 1,562

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Botswana Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 32.8 Women 7.8 Daily use Men Women 27.6 5.9

Survey name

Republic of Botswana Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (STEPS) 2007 25-64

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2005 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 11.3 ... ... Girls 11.4 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 27.0 14.9 17.1 Girls 20.5 8.6 13.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Botswana.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2007, shows that around 33% of men and around 8% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Botswana. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Botswana adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Brazil Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 60,004 65,693 70,733 76,048 81,036 84,671 Women 62,854 69,134 74,715 80,511 85,953 90,048 Both sexes 122,858 134,826 145,448 156,559 166,988 174,719

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 13.9 12.6 10.8 8.2 6.4 4.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 23.2 19.1 16.3 14.6 14.0 12.9

Lower 95% CI 22.0 20.0 17.7 14.8 11.6 8.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.7 25.1 22.1 19.3 17.0 15.1 15.5 36.9 29.8 26.7 24.6 23.3 22.2

Point estimate 18.1 15.5 13.3 11.4 9.8 8.5 9.3

Lower 95% CI 17.9 16.2 14.2 11.4 8.9 6.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.3 20.2 17.6 15.2 13.3 11.7 12.3 29.9 24.3 21.4 19.5 18.5 17.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 28,597,600 27,204,600 25,569,000 23,855,500 22,199,400 20,439,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 10.6 9.6 8.1 6.4 5.1 3.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 13.6 12.6 10.8 8.7 6.9 5.1

Lower 95% CI 16.8 15.8 13.6 11.2 8.9 6.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.8 19.9 17.6 15.4 13.6 12.0 12.3 28.8 23.9 21.6 19.9 18.9 17.8

Point estimate 14.1 12.1 10.3 8.9 7.7 6.6 7.2

Upper 95% CI 17.6 14.6 12.7 11.6 11.0 10.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.3 15.9 13.9 12.1 10.6 9.2 9.7 23.1 19.1 17.0 15.6 14.8 13.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 22,543,200 21,438,000 20,144,600 18,876,900 17,639,200 16,103,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Brazil Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 21.9 28.9 36.0 33.7 23.1 Women 12.1 19.0 24.9 19.3 12.9 Total 17.0 23.9 30.3 26.0 17.3 Men 16.6 21.7 27.2 25.6 17.2

Page 2 2010 Women 8.7 13.6 17.9 13.9 9.2 Total 12.7 17.6 22.4 19.4 12.6 Men 11.1 14.7 18.2 17.0 11.5

2025 Women 5.5 8.7 11.3 8.6 5.8 Total 8.4 11.7 14.7 12.5 8.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008 2003 Age (years) 15+ 18+ Smokeless use Men 0.6 ... Women 0.3 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 21.6 26.4 Women 13.1 17.4 Daily use Men Women 18.9 21.8 11.5 13.7

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Brazil World Health Survey, Brazil

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name PENSE (Subnational) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (São Paulo) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Campo Grande) 2012 2009 2009 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 6.3 ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking 4.6 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 5.1 28.7 0.0 Girls 5.0 30.8 0.0 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of Brazil's population smoked (approximately 25,569,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 12% of the population (approximately 20,439,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 22% of men and about 13% of women smoked in Brazil. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 15% for men and 9% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Brazil adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Brazil will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Brunei Darussalam Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 116 132 148 163 179 192 Women 115 130 146 161 176 190 Both sexes 231 262 294 324 355 383

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 8.7 7.3 6.4 5.6 5.3 5.1

Lower 95% CI 13.8 15.0 14.3 10.3 10.8 6.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.4 20.3 46.1 45.9 48.5 50.5 59.3 65.1

Point estimate 4.8 4.1 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.5

Lower 95% CI 8.0 8.6 7.9 5.7 5.8 3.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.2 16.7 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 11.5 27.5 26.8 27.6 28.2 32.5 35.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 39,700 43,700 48,100 52,800 58,100 63,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 5.5 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.5 3.2

Lower 95% CI 9.7 10.8 9.0 7.7 6.4 6.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.5 23.2 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.1 16.1 39.5 39.6 38.1 41.1 45.8 52.8

Point estimate 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.8

Upper 95% CI 6.7 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 9.0 23.2 22.7 21.6 22.9 25.1 28.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 31,500 34,600 37,900 41,700 45,800 49,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Brunei Darussalam Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 28.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.3 Women 4.3 4.6 5.2 6.0 6.6 Total 16.1 17.1 18.3 18.1 18.4 Men 28.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.9

Page 2 2010 Women 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.7 Total 16.0 16.0 16.7 17.4 16.3 Men 29.4 30.4 30.6 30.7 31.0

2025 Women 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.1 Total 16.0 16.7 16.2 16.7 16.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009-11 2001 1997 Age (years) 18+ 15+ 19+ Smokeless use Men 3.1 ... ... Women 6.6 . . . . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... 31.8 31.1 Women ... 2.9 5.3 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name National Health and Nutritional Status Survey (NHANSS) Population Census National Nutritional Status Survey (NNSS)

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 1.6 Girls 1.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.1 Girls 6.7 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 16% of Brunei Darussalam's population smoked (approximately 48,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 16% of the population (approximately 63,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Brunei Darussalam. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 30% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Brunei Darussalam adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Brunei Darussalam will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Bulgaria Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,255 3,202 3,091 2,939 2,795 2,671 Women 3,491 3,432 3,314 3,177 3,037 2,912 Both sexes 6,747 6,634 6,405 6,116 5,832 5,582

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 25.3 23.5 21.4 16.0 12.4 9.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 47.6 37.7 32.0 28.6 26.7 25.5

Lower 95% CI 41.9 41.1 36.1 30.5 25.5 18.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 56.5 50.5 44.9 40.3 36.3 32.4 31.4 73.1 62.3 53.8 50.8 49.1 46.8

Point estimate 36.1 30.6 26.1 22.4 19.3 16.7 18.3

Lower 95% CI 33.3 32.0 28.5 23.0 18.7 13.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.9 40.2 35.2 31.0 27.4 24.2 24.6 59.9 49.6 42.5 39.3 37.4 35.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,099,600 2,667,000 2,252,800 1,896,200 1,600,700 1,351,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 19.5 17.3 15.1 12.4 9.6 6.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 26.2 25.0 22.0 18.8 15.0 10.6

Lower 95% CI 33.3 33.3 29.5 25.7 20.8 14.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 48.1 42.6 38.1 34.3 30.6 27.4 26.7 61.5 53.1 47.4 43.5 41.2 39.2

Point estimate 27.9 23.9 20.3 17.5 15.0 13.1 14.2

Upper 95% CI 37.7 30.5 26.1 23.4 21.8 20.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.6 32.9 28.9 25.6 22.5 19.9 20.2 49.2 41.4 36.4 33.1 31.1 29.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,539,800 2,184,100 1,850,400 1,564,200 1,310,800 1,113,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Bulgaria Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 56.6 68.0 67.2 43.8 26.8 Women 52.0 55.2 40.2 17.7 8.1 Total 54.4 61.7 53.5 29.8 15.7 Men 45.4 54.7 53.9 35.6 21.0

Page 2 2010 Women 39.6 42.0 30.6 13.7 5.8 Total 42.6 48.5 42.3 23.8 11.8 Men 33.3 40.6 39.7 26.0 15.5

2025 Women 27.4 29.0 21.1 9.3 4.0 Total 30.4 35.0 30.6 17.2 8.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2008 2007 1997 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 25-64 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 41.6 50.3 52.4 ... Women 25.4 28.2 38.1 ... Daily use Men Women 36.8 40.5 46.6 38.4 17.1 18.9 32.7 16.7

Survey name National Centre for the Study of Public Opinion Survey National Statistical Institute European Health Interview National Behavioural Risk Factor Survey Patterns of smoking in Bulgaria

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD) 2011 Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2002 Age (years) 15-16 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 33.0 26.4 28.6 Girls 46.0 31.8 39.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 35% of Bulgaria's population smoked (approximately 2,252,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 1,351,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 45% of men and about 26% of women smoked in Bulgaria. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 32% for men and 17% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Bulgaria adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Bulgaria will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Burkina Faso Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,944 3,450 4,069 4,816 5,703 6,729 Women 3,235 3,731 4,323 5,034 5,878 6,859 Both sexes 6,179 7,181 8,392 9,850 11,581 13,588

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.4 0.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 12.1 9.2 7.7 6.7 6.0 5.3

Lower 95% CI 16.7 19.8 21.7 23.2 21.9 23.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.5 27.0 31.1 36.0 41.7 48.8 21.8 31.3 35.1 41.9 53.2 64.7 85.7

Point estimate 7.8 6.2 5.0 4.1 3.3 2.7 3.5

Lower 95% CI 10.3 11.4 12.0 12.5 11.5 12.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.3 16.2 17.7 19.7 22.2 25.5 12.4 21.2 21.6 24.3 29.4 34.9 45.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 944,200 1,162,900 1,481,600 1,940,200 2,572,100 3,468,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 3.9 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 8.4 9.1 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.0

Lower 95% CI 13.4 15.6 17.8 17.6 17.7 17.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.0 22.8 26.3 30.5 35.3 41.2 18.4 26.8 29.7 35.9 43.2 54.1 68.8

Point estimate 6.9 5.4 4.4 3.5 2.9 2.4 3.1

Upper 95% CI 10.4 8.1 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.1 13.8 15.0 16.7 18.9 21.6 10.5 18.2 18.5 20.8 24.0 29.2 36.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 812,100 988,100 1,260,400 1,645,100 2,183,600 2,936,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Burkina Faso Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 22.8 24.5 23.7 22.8 23.0 Women 6.3 7.0 9.1 11.7 13.6 Total 14.6 15.5 15.6 16.2 17.3 Men 30.0 32.3 31.4 30.2 30.5

Page 2 2010 Women 4.0 4.5 5.8 7.5 8.7 Total 17.2 18.3 17.7 16.8 17.0 Men 47.1 50.7 49.3 47.5 48.1

2025 Women 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.1 4.8 Total 25.0 26.7 25.7 23.6 21.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2002-03 2003 Age (years) 15-49 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 20.6 23.6 ... Women 0.1 11.1 0.1 Daily use Men Women ... 19.0 ... ... 10.3 ...

Survey name Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples World Health Survey, Burkina Faso Enquête Démographique et de Santé

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Ouagadougou) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Ouagadougou) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Ouagadougou) 2009 2006 2001 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 11.2 ... ... Girls 9.2 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 22.6 19.9 27.5 Girls 11.5 6.7 15.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of Burkina Faso's population smoked (approximately 1,481,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 26% of the population (approximately 3,468,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of men and about 5% of women smoked in Burkina Faso. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 49% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Burkina Faso adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Burkina Faso will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Burundi Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,663 2,086 2,543 2,915 3,357 3,943 Women 1,743 2,155 2,634 3,040 3,514 4,129 Both sexes 3,406 4,241 5,177 5,955 6,871 8,072

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Burundi Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 12.0 Women 0.7 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Enquête Démographique et de Santé

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.7 Girls 16.8 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Burundi.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2010, shows that around 12% of men and around 1% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Burundi. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Burundi adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Cambodia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,402 4,028 4,657 5,163 5,635 6,179 Women 3,836 4,511 5,134 5,648 6,144 6,685 Both sexes 7,238 8,539 9,792 10,811 11,780 12,864

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 5.4 3.9 2.8 2.0 1.3 0.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 8.8 5.9 4.4 3.4 2.7 2.1

Lower 95% CI 29.3 31.6 31.0 28.6 23.2 19.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 44.5 41.9 40.6 40.3 40.3 40.0 28.4 58.8 52.3 52.5 55.5 59.2 65.3

Point estimate 7.1 5.0 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.4 2.5

Lower 95% CI 16.6 17.0 16.2 14.7 11.8 9.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.7 22.4 21.2 20.7 20.3 19.9 14.8 32.3 27.8 27.3 28.3 29.7 32.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,786,300 1,913,300 2,075,800 2,233,000 2,393,900 2,565,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.7

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 14.3 14.5 13.7 11.6 9.8 7.7

Lower 95% CI 25.6 27.2 26.3 22.5 19.3 15.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.9 35.9 34.9 34.6 34.6 34.5 24.4 51.3 45.4 45.2 47.7 51.2 56.0

Point estimate 5.8 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.2 2.1

Upper 95% CI 7.5 5.0 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.9 19.1 18.2 17.7 17.4 17.2 12.7 28.1 24.1 23.4 24.3 25.6 27.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,511,900 1,631,000 1,779,500 1,910,500 2,048,100 2,212,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Cambodia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 25.9 44.6 63.1 70.2 71.1 Women 2.7 6.7 11.4 12.1 10.7 Total 14.2 24.9 33.7 38.3 35.2 Men 24.0 38.6 56.5 63.1 64.2

Page 2 2010 Women 1.4 3.1 5.6 5.9 5.2 Total 12.8 20.4 28.6 30.0 29.9 Men 21.6 36.4 50.1 56.3 57.1

2025 Women 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 Total 11.3 18.8 25.0 25.9 23.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2010 2010 2005 2004 Age (years) 15+ 25-64 15-49 15-49 15+ Smokeless use Men 0.7 2.2 ... ... ... Women 12.7 Tobacco smoking 14.9 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 39.1 54.1 34.3 ... 44.1 Women 3.4 5.9 2.4 3.6 5.1 Daily use Men Women 37.4 49.3 ... ... 41.0 3.2 4.8 ... ... 4.3

Survey name National Adult Tobacco survey of Cambodia Cambodia STEPS Survey Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey Smoking Behaviour Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 7.9 7.2 Girls 5.0 3.0 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Cambodia's population smoked (approximately 2,075,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 20% of the population (approximately 2,565,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 41% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Cambodia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 40% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Cambodia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Cambodia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Cameroon Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,304 5,003 5,796 6,689 7,724 8,904 Women 4,413 5,098 5,875 6,757 7,785 8,963 Both sexes 8,716 10,100 11,671 13,446 15,509 17,866

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

Lower 95% CI 6.2 9.6 16.6 24.6 34.2 57.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.5 17.5 26.6 41.0 62.4 84.8 18.6 18.2 25.9 39.4 61.3 93.2 100.0

Point estimate 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6

Lower 95% CI 3.3 5.0 8.4 12.4 17.2 28.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.1 9.1 13.7 20.8 31.5 42.7 9.6 9.8 13.6 20.4 31.3 47.3 50.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 534,600 921,300 1,594,600 2,803,100 4,890,000 7,631,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 1.9 3.0 4.8 7.3 10.5 18.7

Lower 95% CI 3.7 5.8 9.5 14.5 20.8 37.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.3 12.6 19.3 29.9 46.1 67.9 13.5 13.8 20.1 30.6 49.5 77.5 100.0

Point estimate 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4

Upper 95% CI 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 4.4 6.5 9.9 15.2 23.3 34.1 6.9 7.4 10.5 15.8 25.2 39.3 50.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 383,700 660,900 1,153,900 2,040,400 3,607,600 6,099,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Cameroon Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 9.6 11.4 13.6 14.4 14.7 Women 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Total 5.2 6.1 7.2 7.3 7.1 Men 22.3 26.4 31.6 33.5 34.2

Page 2 2010 Women 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Total 11.6 13.7 16.1 16.5 15.9 Men 76.2 86.0 93.0 93.3 92.3

2025 Women 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Total 38.7 43.5 47.1 45.8 42.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men 2.7 ... Women 0.5 Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 14.5 ... Women 0.2 0.7 Daily use Men Women 13.4 ... ... ...

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey

Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples au Cameroon 2011 15-49 2004 15-49

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Centre District) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Yaounde) 2008 2008 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 5.4 Girls . . . Any tobacco use 4.4 . . . Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.0 ... Girls 8.2 ... Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 14% of Cameroon's population smoked (approximately 1,594,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 43% of the population (approximately 7,631,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Cameroon. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 85% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Cameroon adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Cameroon will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Cape Verde Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 121 146 164 182 198 212 Women 136 156 169 183 197 209 Both sexes 258 302 332 365 394 421

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.1 1.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 8.4 6.8 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.7

Lower 95% CI 8.0 9.4 11.0 11.4 13.2 12.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.3 16.4 19.0 22.1 25.9 30.6 13.3 21.7 23.8 27.8 32.8 43.0 53.8

Point estimate 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.8

Lower 95% CI 5.5 6.0 6.6 6.6 7.2 6.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.7 10.3 11.4 12.7 14.4 16.7 8.0 14.7 15.0 16.8 19.1 24.0 29.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 25,000 31,200 37,900 46,400 56,900 70,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.6

Lower 95% CI 6.2 7.6 8.5 9.1 9.1 8.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.3 13.0 15.1 17.6 20.6 24.4 10.6 16.8 19.2 22.2 26.9 33.8 42.1

Point estimate 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1

Upper 95% CI 6.5 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 7.6 8.1 9.0 10.1 11.4 13.3 6.3 11.4 12.0 13.3 15.5 18.8 23.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 19,600 24,600 29,800 36,800 45,000 55,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Cape Verde Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 14.1 14.2 14.7 14.5 14.6 Women 4.7 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.2 Total 9.4 9.7 10.0 9.8 10.3 Men 18.8 18.8 19.6 19.3 19.4

Page 2 2010 Women 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.1 Total 11.2 11.7 11.7 10.7 10.7 Men 30.2 30.3 31.4 30.9 31.0

2025 Women 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 Total 16.3 16.9 18.0 16.0 13.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 Age (years) 25-64 15-49 Smokeless use Men 3.5 ... Women 5.8 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 15.9 ... Women 4.0 2.6 Daily use Men Women 13.0 ... 3.2 ...

Survey name Cap Vert Enquête STEPS

Cape Verde Inquérito Demográfico e de Saúde Reprodutiva (IDSR-II) 2005

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.7 Girls 11.7 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 11% of Cape Verde's population smoked (approximately 37,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 17% of the population (approximately 70,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 19% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Cape Verde. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 31% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Cape Verde adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Cape Verde will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Central African Republic Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,019 1,120 1,259 1,427 1,608 1,800 Women 1,081 1,183 1,323 1,494 1,681 1,880 Both sexes 2,100 2,303 2,582 2,921 3,290 3,680

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Central African Republic Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Bangui) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 21.9 Girls 8.0 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 29.5 Girls 34.5 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Central African Republic.

If Central African Republic adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Chad Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,091 2,519 2,980 3,529 4,189 4,985 Women 2,145 2,564 3,017 3,559 4,210 4,997 Both sexes 4,236 5,083 5,997 7,088 8,399 9,982

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Chad Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2003 Age (years) 18+ Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 17.4 Women 2.9 Daily use Men Women 13.2 2.1

Survey name World Health Survey, Chad

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.9 Girls 13.9 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Chad.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2003, shows that around 17% of men and around 3% of women aged 18+ smoked in Chad. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Chad adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Chile Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 5,460 6,014 6,550 6,988 7,359 7,691 Women 5,700 6,258 6,803 7,250 7,630 7,974 Both sexes 11,161 12,272 13,354 14,239 14,989 15,665

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 31.0 30.9 27.4 24.9 20.1 15.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 56.4 49.8 46.7 45.8 45.4 44.1

Lower 95% CI 37.4 35.3 32.2 28.2 23.5 17.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 51.3 46.9 42.8 39.4 36.4 33.4 30.0 65.7 58.3 54.5 52.9 52.1 50.3

Point estimate 43.8 40.5 37.5 34.7 32.1 29.6 26.3

Lower 95% CI 34.1 33.1 29.8 26.5 21.8 16.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.5 43.6 40.1 37.0 34.2 31.5 28.1 61.0 54.0 50.5 49.3 48.7 47.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 5,297,900 5,355,000 5,354,700 5,269,300 5,127,900 4,929,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.7 16.2 14.8 12.0 11.2 8.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 17.9 17.9 16.3 13.5 12.0 9.4

Lower 95% CI 19.2 19.7 17.8 15.1 12.9 10.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.8 33.6 30.8 28.3 25.9 23.9 21.6 55.2 49.2 45.8 42.3 40.5 38.7

Point estimate 30.7 28.3 26.3 24.2 22.4 20.8 18.4

Upper 95% CI 46.6 42.1 39.9 36.4 35.7 33.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.7 30.9 28.5 26.2 24.1 22.3 20.0 50.8 45.6 42.8 39.3 38.1 36.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,759,400 3,791,700 3,806,700 3,732,300 3,615,100 3,496,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Chile Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 58.4 57.8 49.3 35.3 24.0 Women 52.2 50.2 42.4 30.3 20.8 Total 55.3 54.0 45.8 32.6 22.1 Men 50.0 49.6 41.8 30.3 20.4

Page 2 2010 Women 45.9 44.1 36.9 26.6 18.0 Total 48.0 46.8 39.3 28.4 19.0 Men 41.2 40.7 34.4 24.7 16.9

2025 Women 38.6 37.0 30.9 22.0 15.1 Total 39.9 38.9 32.6 23.3 15.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009-10 2010 2008 2006 2006 Age (years) 15+ 12-64 12-64 12-64 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 44.2 38.6 45.2 45.1 44.8 Women 37.1 33.4 37.4 39.8 34.7 Daily use Men Women ... 26.4 29.9 31.8 ... ... 22.8 26.5 25.8 ...

Survey name Encuesta Nacional de Salud Estudio Nacional de Drogas en Población General de Chile Estudio Nacional de Drogas en Población General de Chile Estudio Nacional de Drogas en Población General de Chile Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida y Salud

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Estudio Nacional de Drogas en Población Escolar de Chile Estudio Nacional de Drogas en Población Escolar de Chile Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Santiago) 2011 2009 2008 Age (years) 15-18 13-17 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 7.5 ... 29.8 Girls 8.7 ... 39.8 Daily use Boys ... 13.6 ... Girls ... 15.7 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 40% of Chile's population smoked (approximately 5,354,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 31% of the population (approximately 4,929,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 43% of men and about 38% of women smoked in Chile. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 33% for men and 30% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Chile adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Chile will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

China Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 488,416 537,416 571,509 589,593 602,841 616,933 Women 464,278 510,433 541,605 557,385 568,805 580,831 Both sexes 952,694 1,047,849 1,113,114 1,146,977 1,171,646 1,197,764

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 4.2 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1

Lower 95% CI 43.2 42.4 41.6 38.6 34.7 28.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 56.2 53.3 51.0 49.3 47.9 45.8 35.7 72.8 64.2 61.3 61.5 62.9 63.2

Point estimate 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.6

Lower 95% CI 23.3 22.8 22.2 20.6 18.4 15.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.4 28.7 27.3 26.3 25.5 24.3 19.1 39.4 34.5 32.8 32.8 33.5 33.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 289,811,200 300,224,200 303,926,600 301,816,800 298,430,700 291,267,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.0 19.2 19.2 18.2 15.3 12.5

Lower 95% CI 35.2 35.8 35.9 34.2 28.8 23.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 48.7 46.0 43.9 42.7 41.2 39.3 30.7 62.3 56.4 53.6 53.3 54.2 54.4

Point estimate 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3

Upper 95% CI 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.3 24.7 23.5 22.8 21.9 20.8 16.4 33.7 30.3 28.7 28.4 28.9 28.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 250,858,600 258,951,100 261,183,000 261,231,500 256,333,900 249,424,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

China Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 34.2 59.1 70.3 61.5 47.8 Women 0.5 1.6 4.2 7.6 9.9 Total 17.9 31.2 38.6 35.3 26.9 Men 31.4 53.5 63.1 56.0 42.7

Page 2 2010 Women 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.6 6.2 Total 16.7 27.9 33.8 31.0 23.2 Men 26.9 47.5 55.2 48.6 37.6

2025 Women 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.4 3.1 Total 14.6 25.3 28.9 25.9 19.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009-10 2010 2007 2004 2002 Age (years) 15+ 18+ 15-69 18-69 15-69 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 52.9 53.3 54.5 58.7 57.4 Women 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 Daily use Men Women 45.4 47.0 46.7 ... ... 2.0 2.0 1.9 ... ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - China Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance in China Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance in China Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance in China Risk Factors Surveillance in China

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Boys 2.2 ... ... Girls 2.1 Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 8.2 18.4 7.1 Girls 10.9 3.6 4.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Macao Special Administrative Region of China) 13-15 2010 2008 China Tobacco Control Report — Ministry of Health of the People’s of China 2008 Republic 13-18 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Shanghai) 2005 13-15

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of China's population smoked (approximately 303,926,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 291,267,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 51% of men and about 2% of women smoked in China. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 46% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If China adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, China will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Colombia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 13,004 14,496 16,037 17,517 18,928 20,291 Women 13,793 15,397 17,050 18,644 20,170 21,642 Both sexes 26,797 29,893 33,087 36,161 39,098 41,933

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 4.9 3.8 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 17.9 15.0 13.1 10.9 9.4 8.4

Lower 95% CI 10.8 10.1 8.7 7.3 5.1 3.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.0 20.8 18.1 15.8 14.0 12.4 12.7 41.8 35.7 30.3 27.4 24.4 23.9

Point estimate 10.4 8.7 7.3 6.2 5.3 4.5 5.1

Lower 95% CI 7.8 6.9 6.2 5.0 3.6 2.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.0 14.6 12.5 10.9 9.5 8.3 8.8 29.5 25.0 21.4 18.9 16.7 15.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 4,555,400 4,354,700 4,147,400 3,923,500 3,719,000 3,489,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.9 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.5

Lower 95% CI 5.9 5.2 5.0 4.0 3.3 2.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.8 14.5 12.6 11.1 9.8 8.7 8.8 31.5 26.1 22.4 20.0 18.4 16.8

Point estimate 7.2 6.0 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.1 3.6

Upper 95% CI 13.0 10.8 9.2 8.2 7.0 5.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.9 10.1 8.7 7.6 6.6 5.8 6.1 22.0 18.2 15.6 13.9 12.5 11.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,177,800 3,025,700 2,890,200 2,746,000 2,581,100 2,436,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Colombia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 21.7 23.7 25.8 26.9 27.4 Women 9.2 10.1 11.2 12.0 12.2 Total 15.5 16.7 18.2 18.9 18.8 Men 16.2 17.6 19.3 20.1 20.4

Page 2 2010 Women 6.4 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.5 Total 11.3 12.2 13.3 13.8 13.6 Men 10.9 11.9 13.1 13.6 13.9

2025 Women 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.1 Total 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.0 8.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 12-65 18-65 18-69 18-69 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 18.8 23.8 19.5 26.8 Women 7.4 11.1 7.4 11.3 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name

Estudio Nacional de Consumo de Sustancias Psicoactivas en Colombia 2013 Estudio Nacional de Consumo de Sustancias Psicoactivas en Colombia 2008 Encuesta Nacional de Salud 2007 Estudio Nacional de Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedades Crónicas 1998

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.9 27.0 21.1 Girls 9.0 27.8 20.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Survey name Encuesta Nacional sobre Consumo de Sustancias Psicoactivas en Población Escolar 2011 13-15 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Bogota) Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Bogota Oficial) 2007 2007 13-15 13-15

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 13% of Colombia's population smoked (approximately 4,147,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 8% of the population (approximately 3,489,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of men and about 7% of women smoked in Colombia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 12% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Colombia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Colombia will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Comoros Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 154 175 197 225 258 297 Women 155 176 198 225 258 295 Both sexes 309 351 395 449 516 592

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 8.2 5.8 4.2 2.7 1.9 1.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 20.8 15.2 11.6 9.1 7.7 6.4

Lower 95% CI 19.4 20.4 18.1 14.6 10.5 8.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.9 27.1 24.7 22.6 20.8 19.4 17.3 39.8 35.0 32.8 31.5 30.7 31.2

Point estimate 13.3 9.9 7.5 5.7 4.4 3.4 5.3

Lower 95% CI 13.8 13.1 11.1 8.7 6.2 4.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.6 18.5 16.1 14.2 12.6 11.4 11.3 30.3 25.1 22.2 20.3 19.2 18.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 66,600 64,900 63,500 63,600 65,100 67,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 5.8 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 11.6 9.7 8.9 7.1 5.6 4.2

Lower 95% CI 17.5 15.6 14.9 12.1 10.0 7.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.9 22.7 20.7 19.0 17.5 16.1 14.5 33.6 29.0 27.7 27.0 26.7 26.2

Point estimate 9.9 7.4 5.7 4.3 3.3 2.5 4.0

Upper 95% CI 15.1 11.0 8.6 6.9 5.6 4.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.4 15.0 13.2 11.6 10.4 9.3 9.2 24.3 20.0 18.1 17.0 16.2 15.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 53,600 52,800 52,100 52,300 53,700 55,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Comoros Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 28.2 30.1 31.1 32.0 34.2 Women 11.9 12.4 14.4 17.1 19.4 Total 20.2 21.3 22.7 24.2 25.7 Men 23.3 24.8 25.6 26.4 28.3

Page 2 2010 Women 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.6 10.9 Total 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.5 Men 18.2 19.4 20.0 20.7 22.2

2025 Women 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.8 Total 10.7 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2003 Age (years) 25-64 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 23.8 27.8 Women 2.0 17.0 Daily use Men Women 20.6 24.1 1.2 15.0

Survey name Comoros STEPS World Health Survey, Comoros

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.8 Girls 14.8 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 16% of Comoros's population smoked (approximately 63,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 67,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of men and about 8% of women smoked in Comoros. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 19% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Comoros adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Comoros will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Congo Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 901 1,017 1,181 1,336 1,523 1,769 Women 916 1,031 1,194 1,350 1,538 1,786 Both sexes 1,816 2,048 2,376 2,686 3,061 3,555

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.4

Lower 95% CI 6.8 11.7 19.1 27.5 48.0 68.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.0 16.2 26.3 43.1 69.4 92.8 18.4 14.0 20.9 34.1 57.5 100.0 100.0

Point estimate 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.2

Lower 95% CI 3.8 6.3 9.9 14.1 24.3 34.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 5.8 8.8 13.9 22.3 35.4 47.1 9.8 8.2 11.7 18.3 30.1 51.3 51.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 104,700 181,200 330,900 598,600 1,084,400 1,675,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 2.4 3.9 5.8 8.7 13.8 22.3

Lower 95% CI 4.3 7.3 11.1 17.0 27.3 44.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 7.0 11.4 18.5 30.5 50.0 76.3 13.0 9.6 15.6 25.3 45.2 82.1 100.0

Point estimate 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.8

Upper 95% CI 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 4.0 6.2 9.7 15.7 25.5 38.6 6.8 5.6 8.7 13.5 23.5 41.9 51.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 72,200 127,300 231,600 422,200 779,800 1,372,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Congo Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 9.2 10.6 10.9 9.5 8.7 Women 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Total 5.4 6.1 6.2 5.4 4.8 Men 24.0 27.8 28.6 24.9 22.9

Page 2 2010 Women 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Total 12.8 14.8 15.2 12.8 11.2 Men 89.5 95.3 95.8 91.1 86.3

2025 Women 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 Total 45.8 48.6 48.8 45.6 40.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 2003 Age (years) 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 19.8 13.0 Women 0.5 1.3 Daily use Men Women 19.6 10.7 ... 1.1

Survey name Enquête Démographique et de Santé du Congo World Health Survey, Congo

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 18.3 ... Girls 14.1 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 27.6 26.1 Girls 20.4 21.9 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 14% of Congo's population smoked (approximately 330,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 47% of the population (approximately 1,675,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 26% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Congo. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 93% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Congo adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Congo will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Cook Islands Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 7 7 8 8 8 8 Women 7 7 8 8 8 8 Both sexes 13 15 15 16 16 16

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Cook Islands Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2006 2003-04 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 25-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 36.6 ... 46.6 Women 27.6 ... 41.1 Daily use Men Women 24.3 34.0 37.5 16.4 25.0 28.8

Survey name Census Census Cook Islands NCD STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2008 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 10.5 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 7.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 22.2 33.7 39.9 Girls 20.2 36.3 49.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Cook Islands.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2011, shows that around 37% of men and around 28% of women aged 15+ smoked in Cook Islands. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Cook Islands adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Costa Rica Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,363 1,577 1,775 1,958 2,120 2,257 Women 1,330 1,537 1,731 1,910 2,071 2,207 Both sexes 2,694 3,114 3,506 3,868 4,191 4,465

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 7.7 7.0 5.3 4.2 3.2 2.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 22.3 17.9 14.8 14.0 13.3 12.1

Lower 95% CI 18.0 16.0 12.7 9.9 6.6 4.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.4 23.7 20.9 18.5 16.5 14.9 14.6 39.5 33.6 30.2 29.1 27.9 27.7

Point estimate 14.1 11.7 9.9 8.3 7.2 6.2 6.9

Lower 95% CI 12.9 11.6 9.0 7.1 4.9 3.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.8 17.8 15.5 13.5 11.9 10.6 10.8 31.0 25.8 22.6 21.6 20.7 20.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 561,100 553,600 542,400 520,700 499,000 473,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 5.3 5.0 4.0 3.1 2.3 1.5

Lower 95% CI 7.6 7.0 5.5 4.4 3.2 1.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.0 13.8 12.2 10.8 9.7 8.8 8.5 25.8 22.2 20.1 18.3 17.5 17.5

Point estimate 8.0 6.7 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.9

Upper 95% CI 13.8 11.3 9.8 8.7 8.1 7.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.1 10.3 8.9 7.8 6.9 6.2 6.3 19.9 16.8 15.0 13.6 12.9 12.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 324,600 320,600 313,500 303,100 290,600 278,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Costa Rica Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 26.0 27.7 28.6 27.8 27.6 Women 14.0 14.3 14.2 13.6 13.6 Total 20.1 21.1 21.5 20.6 20.1 Men 19.8 21.0 21.7 21.1 21.0

Page 2 2010 Women 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.5 Total 14.9 15.6 15.9 15.3 14.7 Men 14.0 14.9 15.4 14.9 14.8

2025 Women 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 Total 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.5 10.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2006 2000-01 1995 Age (years) 18-70 18-70 12-70 12-70 Smokeless use Men 0.8 ... ... ... Women 0.3 Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking ... ... Tobacco type Current use Men 18.6 15.7 23.3 ... Women 8.5 21.3 8.2 ... Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Encuesta nacional en hogares sobre consumo de drogas Encuesta nacional en hogares sobre consumo de drogas Consumo de Drogas en Costa Rica Encuesta Nacional: Consumo de drogas en Costa Rica

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Boys 0.0 ... ... Girls 1.1 . . . . . . Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys ... 11.5 10.1 Girls ... 8.9 7.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Survey name Encuesta Nacional sobre Consumo de Drogas en población de Educación 2012 Secundaria 13-15 Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2009 13-15 Encuesta Nacional sobre Consumo de Drogas en población de Educación 2009 Secundaria Grade 7

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of Costa Rica's population smoked (approximately 542,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 473,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of men and about 10% of women smoked in Costa Rica. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 15% for men and 6% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Costa Rica adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Costa Rica will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Côte d'Ivoire Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,930 5,235 5,708 6,444 7,216 8,048 Women 4,411 4,799 5,334 6,121 6,953 7,847 Both sexes 9,340 10,033 11,042 12,565 14,169 15,895

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Côte d'Ivoire Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.2 Women 1.7 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Abidjan) 2009 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.2 ... Girls 4.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 26.3 21.7 Girls 10.9 10.3 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Côte d'Ivoire.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2011-12, shows that around 26% of men and around 2% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Côte d'Ivoire. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Côte d'Ivoire adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Croatia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,762 1,755 1,752 1,734 1,707 1,687 Women 1,945 1,932 1,922 1,899 1,862 1,829 Both sexes 3,707 3,687 3,674 3,633 3,569 3,516

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 19.7 20.4 21.3 21.2 20.5 18.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 31.7 31.6 33.5 37.0 42.1 46.9

Lower 95% CI 30.4 31.6 29.6 26.7 24.7 20.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 39.2 38.5 37.7 37.4 36.9 36.6 26.4 47.8 46.2 46.2 47.4 50.9 53.9

Point estimate 25.0 26.1 27.2 28.4 30.0 31.5 19.0

Lower 95% CI 24.8 25.7 25.3 23.8 22.5 19.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.8 32.0 32.2 32.7 33.3 33.9 22.5 39.4 38.6 39.6 42.0 46.3 50.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,177,100 1,179,900 1,183,400 1,188,000 1,188,500 1,193,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.0 17.2 17.6 17.1 16.5 15.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 20.4 22.2 21.5 20.5 18.4 16.8

Lower 95% CI 25.3 27.6 25.7 24.2 20.4 18.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.7 34.0 33.7 33.1 32.6 32.3 23.6 43.0 41.8 41.5 43.6 44.5 47.2

Point estimate 21.1 22.0 22.9 24.1 25.2 26.6 16.0

Upper 95% CI 26.8 26.7 28.3 30.8 34.9 38.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.3 19.6 34.5 33.9 34.6 36.9 39.5 42.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,021,900 1,021,700 1,030,700 1,031,700 1,025,700 1,031,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Croatia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 44.6 45.1 39.7 31.5 26.5 Women 34.7 32.9 27.4 16.3 10.3 Total 39.7 39.0 33.6 23.2 15.9 Men 43.5 44.1 38.6 31.3 25.8

Page 2 2010 Women 39.2 37.2 30.7 19.2 11.5 Total 41.4 40.7 34.6 24.9 16.8 Men 43.4 43.9 38.7 30.8 25.8

2025 Women 47.6 45.3 37.7 22.7 13.9 Total 45.4 44.6 38.2 26.6 18.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15-64 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 40.9 31.6 34.0 Women 34.0 22.9 22.4 36.7 Daily use Men Women 39.7 30.0 30.9 34.1 32.9 17.8 19.6 26.6

Survey name World Health Survey, Croatia Croatian Adult Health Survey

Substance abuse among the general public in the Republic of Croatia 2011 2003 2003

A large cross-sectional study of health attitudes, knowledge, behaviour and risks in the post-war Croatian population (the First Croatian Health Project) 1995-97 18-65 ... . . . Tobacco smoking 40.7

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 17.2 ... ... Girls 14.5 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 28.6 27.4 23.3 Girls 27.9 25.3 25.6 Daily use Boys ... 21.0 ... Girls ... 19.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of Croatia's population smoked (approximately 1,183,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 34% of the population (approximately 1,193,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of men and about 27% of women smoked in Croatia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 37% for men and 32% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Croatia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Croatia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Cuba Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,359 4,550 4,667 4,751 4,797 4,774 Women 4,368 4,546 4,661 4,747 4,792 4,768 Both sexes 8,727 9,096 9,328 9,497 9,589 9,542

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 18.8 15.3 11.5 6.6 4.5 3.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 47.7 40.3 36.3 32.0 29.8 28.1

Lower 95% CI 35.1 34.8 27.3 24.3 25.6 21.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 55.1 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.9 54.8 38.3 79.8 82.0 85.5 92.4 100.0 100.0

Point estimate 31.4 26.1 21.9 18.5 15.8 13.7 15.3

Lower 95% CI 26.9 25.1 19.4 15.5 15.1 12.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 43.2 40.6 38.3 36.6 35.4 34.3 26.8 63.7 61.2 60.9 62.2 64.9 64.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,773,600 3,688,900 3,573,800 3,476,700 3,390,800 3,269,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 12.2 10.0 7.3 5.2 3.5 2.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 15.3 14.5 12.1 9.7 7.3 5.1

Lower 95% CI 18.4 19.0 16.8 14.1 11.1 8.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.5 34.1 34.3 34.6 35.3 35.8 24.0 51.7 52.6 54.9 62.4 70.6 75.9

Point estimate 22.5 18.7 15.7 13.3 11.3 9.7 11.0

Upper 95% CI 34.8 29.1 25.0 23.0 21.4 19.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.5 26.4 25.0 24.0 23.3 22.8 17.5 43.2 40.9 40.0 42.7 46.0 47.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,486,800 2,401,600 2,332,700 2,275,000 2,234,900 2,171,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Cuba Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 42.5 52.2 60.8 63.7 65.1 Women 24.7 29.7 34.3 35.7 36.5 Total 33.8 41.1 47.6 49.5 49.4 Men 41.5 51.5 59.0 61.7 62.9

Page 2 2010 Women 17.0 20.5 23.4 24.4 24.9 Total 29.6 36.3 41.4 42.8 42.1 Men 42.0 50.6 57.4 59.2 60.2

2025 Women 10.4 12.4 14.3 14.8 15.0 Total 26.7 32.1 36.3 36.9 35.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 31.0 ... ... Women 16.4 ... ... Daily use Men Women 27.5 41.6 48.1 14.1 23.0 26.2

Survey name

III Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo y Enfermedades no Transmisibles y Actividades Preventivas 2010 15+ ... . . . Tobacco smoking II Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo y Enfermedades no Transmisibles y15+ Actividades Preventivas 2001 ... I Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo y Enfermedades no Transmisibles y 15+ Actividades Preventivas 1995 ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Havana) 2010 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.8 15.7 Girls 15.0 13.6 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of Cuba's population smoked (approximately 3,573,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 34% of the population (approximately 3,269,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 55% of men and about 22% of women smoked in Cuba. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 55% for men and 14% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Cuba adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Cuba will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Cyprus Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 367 416 462 495 520 542 Women 365 410 446 477 501 521 Both sexes 732 826 908 972 1,021 1,064

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Cyprus Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008 Age (years) 15+ Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.9 Women 16.9 Daily use Men Women 39.2 14.3

Survey name European Health Interview Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 28.7 13.2 Girls 10.8 8.4 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Cyprus.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2008, shows that around 44% of men and around 17% of women aged 15+ smoked in Cyprus. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Cyprus adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Czech Republic Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,125 4,209 4,414 4,457 4,483 4,552 Women 4,440 4,510 4,641 4,660 4,666 4,719 Both sexes 8,564 8,718 9,056 9,117 9,150 9,271

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 21.9 22.6 21.4 19.8 17.4 15.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 33.2 31.6 31.8 32.3 33.6 34.2

Lower 95% CI 33.2 31.0 30.2 28.5 24.9 22.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 40.3 38.8 37.4 35.9 34.7 33.7 26.2 49.0 45.6 44.4 44.9 44.1 46.4

Point estimate 27.7 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.0 18.6

Lower 95% CI 27.3 26.7 25.7 24.1 21.1 18.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.8 32.7 31.8 30.8 30.0 29.3 22.3 40.8 38.4 37.9 38.5 38.7 40.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,891,900 2,850,600 2,881,000 2,811,800 2,740,900 2,713,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 15.1 14.9 14.6 13.7 12.0 9.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.5 19.3 19.0 17.5 15.4 13.2

Lower 95% CI 24.2 24.1 23.6 21.5 19.0 16.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.5 30.3 29.1 28.1 27.0 26.3 20.4 37.7 36.3 35.5 35.7 35.9 36.6

Point estimate 19.3 18.7 18.4 18.0 17.7 17.4 12.9

Upper 95% CI 23.1 22.2 22.4 23.1 24.2 24.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.2 24.3 23.6 22.9 22.3 21.8 16.5 30.1 29.0 28.8 29.3 29.9 30.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,156,100 2,118,500 2,138,600 2,091,300 2,036,400 2,018,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Czech Republic Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 44.2 43.5 43.7 33.7 23.1 Women 33.5 33.4 32.2 20.9 11.1 Total 39.0 38.5 37.9 26.8 15.4 Men 41.8 41.0 41.2 31.6 21.5

Page 2 2010 Women 32.9 32.8 31.7 20.4 10.5 Total 37.5 37.1 36.5 25.7 14.7 Men 38.7 38.0 38.3 29.1 20.1

2025 Women 32.4 32.4 31.2 19.9 10.5 Total 35.7 35.3 34.9 24.4 14.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 Age (years) 15+ Smokeless use Men 2.8 Women 1.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 36.5 Women 26.3 Daily use Men Women 26.7 19.6 20.5 19.3 19.4 ...

Survey name The use of tobacco and alcohol in the Czech Republic Czech Republic: Tobacco Smoking Survey Czech smoking prevalence survey Czech smoking prevalence survey

Tobacco smoking Development of the Prevalence of Smoking in Adult Population in the Czech Republic: Citizens Towards the Issues Related 30.1 to Smoking 32.6 2009 15-64 Opinions and . . . Attitude .of . .Czech 42.5 2008 2005 2004 15+ 15+ 15+ ... ... ... . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking 34.9 32.8 33.8 27.4 23.3 22.9 26.1 29.6 ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 35.0 22.0 35.8 Girls 37.8 27.8 34.1 Daily use Boys ... 16.0 ... Girls ... 20.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of Czech Republic's population smoked (approximately 2,881,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 29% of the population (approximately 2,713,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 37% of men and about 27% of women smoked in Czech Republic. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 34% for men and 25% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Czech Republic adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Czech Republic will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 8,096 8,616 9,131 9,580 9,940 10,175 Women 8,801 9,311 9,816 10,250 10,601 10,842 Both sexes 16,897 17,927 18,947 19,831 20,542 21,018

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name No known surveys Age (years) Smokeless use Boys Girls Tobacco type Current use Boys Girls Daily use Boys Girls

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

X X

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

If Democratic People's Republic of Korea adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Democratic Republic of the Congo Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 12,328 14,287 16,710 19,486 22,682 26,299 Women 12,814 14,765 17,207 20,029 23,296 27,030 Both sexes 25,142 29,052 33,916 39,515 45,978 53,330

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Democratic Republic of the Congo Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... Women 0.6 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Kinshasa) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 20.6 Girls 20.1 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 36.2 Girls 29.5 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2007, shows that around 1% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Democratic Republic of the Congo. There were no data for men.

If Democratic Republic of the Congo adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Dominica Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 26 26 26 27 27 28 Women 26 26 26 27 27 28 Both sexes 51 52 52 53 55 56

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Dominica Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007-08 Age (years) 15-64 Smokeless use Men 1.6 Women <1% Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 16.6 Women 3.2 Daily use Men Women 9.7 0.9

Survey name Dominica STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 10.2 ... Girls 6.4 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 30.4 19.3 Girls 19.8 13.5 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Dominica.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2007-08, shows that around 17% of men and around 3% of women aged 15-64 smoked in Dominica. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Dominica adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Dominican Republic Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,818 3,116 3,427 3,719 4,012 4,298 Women 2,819 3,138 3,467 3,781 4,095 4,400 Both sexes 5,637 6,254 6,894 7,500 8,107 8,697

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 9.8 8.9 7.0 5.2 3.9 2.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 17.0 14.5 13.2 12.8 12.8 12.3

Lower 95% CI 14.3 14.8 13.5 11.1 8.8 7.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 19.6 18.7 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.5 12.8 25.3 23.2 23.7 25.2 28.2 31.4

Point estimate 13.4 11.7 10.2 9.1 8.1 7.2 7.1

Lower 95% CI 12.0 11.8 10.2 8.1 6.3 4.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.5 15.2 14.2 13.5 12.8 12.3 10.0 21.1 18.8 18.4 18.9 20.4 21.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 930,000 949,900 980,800 1,009,700 1,037,900 1,068,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 7.6 6.5 5.6 3.8 3.0 2.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 9.2 8.5 7.4 5.6 4.6 3.6

Lower 95% CI 10.8 10.6 9.3 7.5 6.2 5.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.1 14.5 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.6 9.9 20.1 18.8 19.6 21.4 22.3 26.2

Point estimate 10.7 9.3 8.2 7.2 6.5 5.8 5.7

Upper 95% CI 14.2 12.0 11.4 10.6 10.3 10.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.9 11.9 11.1 10.5 10.0 9.7 7.8 17.1 15.4 15.5 16.0 16.2 18.1

Estimated no. of daily smokers 727,100 743,700 767,500 789,100 811,900 839,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Dominican Republic Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 10.6 16.6 26.7 33.4 35.9 Women 6.1 10.9 19.7 24.3 25.4 Total 8.3 13.7 23.2 28.9 30.6 Men 9.5 14.9 24.2 29.9 32.3

Page 2 2010 Women 4.4 7.9 14.4 17.5 18.4 Total 7.0 11.4 19.2 23.7 25.1 Men 8.5 13.5 21.8 27.0 29.2

2025 Women 2.9 5.2 9.4 11.5 12.1 Total 5.7 9.3 15.5 19.0 20.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 2003 2002 1990 Age (years) 15-49 18+ 15-49 20-79 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 11.3 17.2 ... 66.3 Women 6.3 12.5 8.1 13.6 Daily use Men Women 10.5 15.3 ... ... 5.9 10.8 7.8 ...

Survey name Dominican Republic Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Dominican Republic Dominican Republic Demographic and Health Survey Tobacco or Health: Status in the Americas

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.3 18.4 Girls 14.0 11.9 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 14% of Dominican Republic's population smoked (approximately 980,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 12% of the population (approximately 1,068,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of men and about 10% of women smoked in Dominican Republic. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 18% for men and 7% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Dominican Republic adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Dominican Republic will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Ecuador Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,084 4,610 5,138 5,686 6,249 6,806 Women 4,120 4,668 5,220 5,791 6,376 6,952 Both sexes 8,204 9,278 10,358 11,476 12,625 13,758

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 7.7 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.8 4.7

Lower 95% CI 14.2 12.5 9.7 7.6 5.7 3.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.7 17.9 15.6 13.8 12.2 10.9 10.9 27.5 23.6 21.4 21.2 20.4 19.3

Point estimate 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.7

Lower 95% CI 8.5 7.5 5.8 4.5 3.3 2.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.9 11.1 9.7 8.5 7.5 6.7 6.8 17.6 15.0 13.6 13.2 12.5 11.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,059,600 1,030,700 999,900 975,700 940,900 915,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.0

Lower 95% CI 6.3 5.6 4.5 3.4 2.4 1.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.0 8.7 7.6 6.7 5.9 5.3 5.3 14.0 12.6 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.5

Point estimate 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5

Upper 95% CI 4.6 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.4 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.4 9.3 8.2 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 527,900 513,100 500,100 485,200 464,300 451,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Ecuador Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.9 26.5 Women 4.7 4.9 5.4 6.2 6.4 Total 11.8 12.2 13.8 15.3 15.6 Men 13.9 14.6 16.7 18.5 19.8

Page 2 2010 Women 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.6 Total 8.7 9.1 10.2 11.3 11.6 Men 9.6 10.1 11.5 12.7 13.6

2025 Women 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 Total 5.9 6.2 6.9 7.6 7.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2003 Age (years) 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 36.3 26.3 Women 8.2 6.6 Daily use Men Women ... 6.1 ... 1.3

Survey name El consumo actual de cigarrillos en el Ecuador World Health Survey, Ecuador

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.3 31.2 14.4 Girls 8.7 26.1 7.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Survey name Encuesta nacional sobe consumo de Drogas en Estudiantes de Enseñanza 2008 Media 13-19 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Quito) Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Guayaquil) 2007 2007 13-15 13-15

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 10% of Ecuador's population smoked (approximately 999,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 7% of the population (approximately 915,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 16% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Ecuador. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 11% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Ecuador adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Ecuador will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Egypt Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 21,297 24,154 26,628 29,172 31,713 34,579 Women 21,409 24,286 26,842 29,399 32,023 34,989 Both sexes 42,706 48,440 53,471 58,572 63,736 69,568

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3

Lower 95% CI 22.9 29.5 34.6 35.2 33.6 30.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.2 37.9 42.7 49.2 56.0 62.9 29.9 46.6 46.4 52.2 65.2 83.8 93.3

Point estimate 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4

Lower 95% CI 11.7 15.0 17.4 17.6 16.8 15.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.6 19.2 21.5 24.7 28.0 31.3 15.1 24.1 23.6 26.3 32.7 41.8 46.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 7,519,100 9,324,300 11,504,500 14,441,000 17,823,200 21,785,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 9.6 12.4 14.6 15.5 13.7 12.8

Lower 95% CI 18.9 24.5 29.2 31.0 27.5 25.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.2 32.3 36.5 41.8 48.0 54.7 25.6 42.2 41.0 45.2 55.2 69.5 86.1

Point estimate 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2

Upper 95% CI 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.0 16.4 18.3 20.9 24.0 27.2 12.8 21.7 20.8 22.8 27.6 34.7 42.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 6,390,000 7,923,200 9,799,900 12,252,800 15,286,200 18,949,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Egypt Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 23.8 37.4 43.0 38.5 32.0 Women 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 Total 12.6 19.6 22.4 18.8 13.9 Men 29.9 45.6 53.2 47.7 39.4

Page 2 2010 Women 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 Total 15.4 23.1 27.3 23.3 16.4 Men 43.7 66.9 74.8 68.3 57.7

2025 Women 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total 22.3 33.7 37.6 33.4 24.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 2007-09 2008 2005-06 2007-05 Age (years) 25-64 15+ 15-49 15-65 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... 4.8 ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking 0.3 Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Men 46.0 37.6 43.9 ... ... Women 0.4 0.5 0.7 ... 0.6 Daily use Men Women 44.3 35.9 ... 34.6 ... 0.3 0.5 ... 0.7 ...

Survey name Egypt NCD Stepwise Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Egypt Egypt Demographic and Health Survey Non-communicable disease surveillance system Egypt Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2009 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 11.0 Girls . . . Any tobacco use 3.4 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 7.2 20.0 Girls 2.8 3.8 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 22% of Egypt's population smoked (approximately 11,504,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 31% of the population (approximately 21,785,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 43% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Egypt. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 63% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Egypt adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Egypt will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

El Salvador Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,708 1,797 1,936 2,093 2,181 2,256 Women 1,969 2,109 2,287 2,479 2,604 2,713 Both sexes 3,677 3,907 4,223 4,572 4,785 4,969

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

El Salvador Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2014 Age (years) 18+ 12-65 12-65 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 16.9 9.4 21.5 Women 2.2 1.7 3.4 Daily use Men Women 11.5 ... ... 1.4 ... ...

Survey name Encuesta Nacional de Alcohol y Tabaco

Estudio Nacional sobre Consumo de Drogas en Población en General 2014 Estudio Nacional sobre Consumo de Drogas en Población en General 2005

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 18.2 24.4 Girls 11.0 15.4 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for El Salvador.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2014, shows that around 17% of men and around 2% of women aged 18+ smoked in El Salvador. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If El Salvador adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Equatorial Guinea Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 155 187 219 254 292 334 Women 143 172 203 237 274 316 Both sexes 297 359 422 492 566 650

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Equatorial Guinea Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 25.1 Girls 17.3 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Equatorial Guinea.

If Equatorial Guinea adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Eritrea Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,013 1,336 1,600 1,885 2,219 2,625 Women 1,074 1,406 1,671 1,954 2,281 2,676 Both sexes 2,087 2,742 3,271 3,838 4,500 5,301

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Eritrea Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... Women ... Daily use Men Women 12.4 0.7

Survey name

National noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factor baseline survey (using WHO STEPSwise approach) 2004 15-64 ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2006 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 7.8 Girls 4.6 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Eritrea.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2004, shows that around 12% of men and around 1% of women aged 15-64 smoked daily in Eritrea. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Eritrea adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Estonia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 504 508 499 488 478 474 Women 617 615 600 586 572 562 Both sexes 1,121 1,123 1,099 1,074 1,050 1,036

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 19.4 19.3 18.2 16.6 15.1 13.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 29.3 28.2 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.0

Lower 95% CI 44.3 40.4 36.3 31.6 26.1 22.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 54.8 49.3 44.6 40.5 36.8 33.4 31.2 66.1 58.8 53.5 50.6 47.3 46.9

Point estimate 24.6 23.6 22.4 21.5 20.7 20.0 15.7

Lower 95% CI 30.6 28.8 26.4 23.4 20.1 17.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 38.2 35.2 32.5 30.1 28.0 26.1 22.7 45.8 42.0 39.0 37.7 36.3 36.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 427,800 395,500 356,800 323,500 294,400 270,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 13.9 13.8 12.8 11.8 10.5 9.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 24.6 22.8 20.9 18.2 16.2 13.2

Lower 95% CI 37.7 33.8 30.6 25.8 23.1 17.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.6 41.1 37.4 33.8 30.7 27.9 26.2 55.1 48.3 44.8 42.4 41.7 38.4

Point estimate 17.7 16.9 16.2 15.5 14.8 14.4 11.3

Upper 95% CI 21.0 19.8 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.2 27.8 25.8 23.8 22.0 20.6 18.1 36.3 32.7 30.9 29.7 29.4 28.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 338,900 312,600 283,700 255,700 231,400 213,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Estonia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 54.0 60.0 60.0 47.7 38.8 Women 29.8 32.6 29.6 16.4 11.1 Total 42.2 46.1 43.8 29.5 19.3 Men 44.3 49.0 49.0 39.4 31.5

Page 2 2010 Women 28.0 30.6 27.6 15.7 10.3 Total 36.4 39.9 37.8 25.8 16.8 Men 33.4 37.3 37.1 29.6 23.7

2025 Women 25.8 28.4 25.6 14.3 9.5 Total 29.7 32.9 31.3 21.0 14.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2006 Age (years) 16-64 16-64 16-64 16-64 16+ Smokeless use Men 11.9 ... ... ... ... Women 3.1 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 44.6 45.8 46.0 48.1 41.3 Women 26.4 26.0 25.3 26.7 16.4 Daily use Men Women 36.2 36.8 38.6 40.5 39.1 18.3 18.7 17.1 19.5 15.0

Survey name Health Behaviour among Estonian Adult Population Health Behaviour among Estonian Adult Population Health Behaviour among Estonian Adult Population Health Behaviour among Estonian Adult Population Estonian Health Interview Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2007 2003 Age (years) 15-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 9.4 ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking 4.5 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 22.0 33.8 31.2 Girls 16.3 27.8 27.3 Daily use Boys 16.0 ... ... Girls 10.0 ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of Estonia's population smoked (approximately 356,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 26% of the population (approximately 270,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 45% of men and about 22% of women smoked in Estonia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 33% for men and 20% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Estonia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Estonia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Ethiopia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 17,453 20,285 23,990 28,759 33,953 39,323 Women 17,827 20,684 24,410 29,189 34,436 39,873 Both sexes 35,280 40,969 48,400 57,948 68,388 79,196

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Lower 95% CI 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 5.7 11.6 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.8

Point estimate 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

Lower 95% CI 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.0 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,538,100 1,766,800 2,065,300 2,475,400 2,921,900 3,423,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4

Lower 95% CI 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 4.0 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.8 9.7

Point estimate 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

Upper 95% CI 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.1 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.1

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,065,700 1,218,300 1,440,700 1,726,800 2,038,600 2,400,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Ethiopia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 5.8 8.3 11.2 10.8 10.4 Women 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 Total 3.2 4.4 5.8 5.7 5.4 Men 5.7 8.3 11.1 10.8 10.3

Page 2 2010 Women 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 Total 3.1 4.4 5.7 5.5 5.2 Men 5.8 8.3 11.2 10.9 10.4

2025 Women 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 Total 3.1 4.3 5.8 5.5 5.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2005 2003 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 6.5 8.5 6.3 Women 0.2 0.2 0.5 ... Daily use Men Women 6.1 ... 5.3 7.7 ... ... 0.4 0.0

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Ethiopia

Combining risk factors and demographic surveillance: Potentials of WHO and INDEPTH methodologies assessing epidemiological transition 2002 STEPS 25-64 ... . . .for Any tobacco use ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Addis Ababa) 2003 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 9.9 Girls 4.9 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 4% of Ethiopia's population smoked (approximately 2,065,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 4% of the population (approximately 3,423,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 8% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Ethiopia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 8% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Ethiopia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Ethiopia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Fiji Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 266 289 310 322 332 345 Women 261 281 301 315 328 342 Both sexes 527 571 611 636 660 687

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 8.4 8.2 6.6 5.4 3.8 2.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 22.0 21.2 20.6 21.3 22.0 23.4

Lower 95% CI 28.9 24.8 18.4 14.2 10.3 7.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 50.6 45.6 41.6 38.4 35.6 33.2 29.1 75.5 68.0 63.7 64.8 66.5 66.7

Point estimate 14.6 13.7 12.9 12.3 11.9 11.5 9.0

Lower 95% CI 18.7 16.6 12.6 9.8 7.1 5.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.7 29.9 27.5 25.5 23.8 22.4 19.2 49.0 44.9 42.5 43.3 44.4 45.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 172,600 170,500 167,800 162,200 157,300 153,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 5.2 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.2 1.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 12.8 11.5 10.2 7.3 5.5 2.9

Lower 95% CI 20.3 18.4 16.3 11.4 8.7 4.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.3 32.0 29.1 26.8 24.8 23.3 20.4 50.5 47.1 47.1 47.4 49.0 48.9

Point estimate 9.2 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.2 5.7

Upper 95% CI 14.2 13.2 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.4 20.5 18.8 17.4 16.2 15.3 13.2 32.5 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.6 31.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 117,900 116,800 114,900 110,700 107,000 105,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Fiji Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 44.9 50.2 55.1 57.7 58.7 Women 12.5 13.9 15.9 18.0 19.8 Total 29.1 32.4 35.6 37.1 37.3 Men 36.5 40.6 44.8 47.0 48.0

Page 2 2010 Women 10.8 12.1 13.9 15.5 17.1 Total 24.0 26.7 29.6 31.2 31.0 Men 28.7 32.2 35.2 36.9 37.6

2025 Women 9.4 10.5 12.0 13.5 14.8 Total 19.4 21.7 23.8 24.8 24.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2002 Age (years) 25-64 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 47.0 53.0 52.3 ... Women 14.3 18.0 23.0 ... Daily use Men Women 27.1 26.0 ... 37.2 6.0 3.9 ... 9.9

Survey name Fiji STEPS Fiji Non-communicable Diseases STEPS Survey National Nutrition Survey

National Fijian Adult Substance Use Survey- smoking, alcohol, kava1999 and marijuama use in 16-45.year 16-45 . . olds . . . Tobacco smoking 1993 12+ ... . . . Tobacco smoking

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.4 17.5 11.6 Girls 8.4 10.1 10.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of Fiji's population smoked (approximately 167,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 22% of the population (approximately 153,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 42% of men and about 13% of women smoked in Fiji. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 33% for men and 12% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Fiji adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Fiji will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Finland Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,047 2,103 2,181 2,225 2,254 2,282 Women 2,190 2,233 2,300 2,335 2,361 2,390 Both sexes 4,237 4,336 4,482 4,560 4,615 4,673

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 18.4 16.7 14.6 12.6 10.5 8.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 27.5 23.6 20.8 18.8 17.1 15.7

Lower 95% CI 27.2 24.5 21.2 17.5 14.8 11.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.3 29.0 25.1 21.7 19.0 16.6 17.6 39.5 34.7 30.0 26.0 24.2 21.4

Point estimate 22.9 20.0 17.7 15.5 13.7 12.1 12.4

Lower 95% CI 22.7 20.5 17.8 15.0 12.6 10.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.9 24.4 21.3 18.5 16.3 14.3 14.9 33.3 29.0 25.3 22.3 20.6 18.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,183,100 1,056,400 954,700 844,700 751,800 668,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 14.0 12.7 10.9 9.2 7.7 6.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 17.4 15.8 13.8 11.6 9.6 7.8

Lower 95% CI 21.0 19.1 16.9 14.1 11.6 9.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.4 23.0 19.9 17.3 15.1 13.1 13.9 31.4 26.9 23.4 21.0 19.2 17.0

Point estimate 17.0 15.0 13.3 11.7 10.3 9.1 9.3

Upper 95% CI 20.3 17.7 15.8 14.1 13.1 12.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.5 18.9 16.5 14.4 12.6 11.1 11.6 25.7 22.2 19.5 17.5 16.1 14.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 912,700 818,500 740,000 658,100 583,600 516,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Finland Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 31.7 38.8 38.5 28.1 14.9 Women 30.2 30.1 26.7 16.3 7.1 Total 31.0 34.5 32.7 22.0 9.8 Men 24.7 30.1 30.0 22.0 11.4

Page 2 2010 Women 24.2 24.2 21.5 13.2 5.6 Total 24.5 27.2 25.7 17.5 7.8 Men 17.2 21.0 20.9 14.9 7.9

2025 Women 17.6 17.6 15.7 9.3 4.1 Total 17.4 19.3 18.4 12.1 5.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15-64 15-64 15-64 15-64 15-64 Smokeless use Men 2.9 ... 5.5 5.6 5.5 Women 0.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 0.3 Tobacco smoking 0.4 Tobacco smoking 0.4 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 25.6 26.7 28.6 29.4 30.3 Women 18.9 20.3 20.0 21.1 22.1 Daily use Men Women 19.1 20.9 21.9 23.2 20.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.7 14.9

Survey name

Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population 2013 Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population 2012 Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population 2011 Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population 2010 Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population 2009

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Adolescent Health and Lifestyle Survey Adolescent Health and Lifestyle Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2013 2011 2010 Age (years) 14-14 14-14 15-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.8 3.8 ... Girls 1.6 Any tobacco use 0.9 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys ... ... 19.8 Girls ... ... 19.1 Daily use Boys 3.5 4.0 15.0 Girls 6.0 6.0 13.0

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Finland's population smoked (approximately 954,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 14% of the population (approximately 668,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of men and about 18% of women smoked in Finland. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 17% for men and 12% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Finland adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Finland will achieve the smoking component of the target.

France Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 22,926 23,863 24,638 25,478 26,233 26,891 Women 25,071 26,215 26,988 27,747 28,429 29,049 Both sexes 47,998 50,078 51,626 53,225 54,662 55,939

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 18.9 18.2 17.0 15.2 13.6 11.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 31.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 30.4

Lower 95% CI 27.1 26.0 23.3 20.9 17.4 14.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.5 33.3 30.4 27.9 25.7 23.7 21.3 46.8 42.0 39.4 37.5 36.4 34.9

Point estimate 24.9 23.6 22.6 21.7 20.8 20.1 15.8

Lower 95% CI 22.8 21.9 20.0 17.9 15.4 12.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.4 28.2 26.3 24.7 23.2 21.8 18.4 38.9 35.4 34.1 33.2 32.8 32.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 14,610,900 14,133,100 13,589,200 13,129,400 12,655,000 12,211,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 15.5 15.4 14.6 13.4 11.2 10.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 18.7 18.2 16.7 15.0 12.3 10.8

Lower 95% CI 22.3 21.2 19.0 16.7 13.4 11.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.4 27.7 25.2 23.1 21.3 19.7 17.6 38.4 34.4 31.5 30.4 28.4 28.4

Point estimate 20.7 19.8 18.9 18.2 17.4 16.9 13.2

Upper 95% CI 26.3 24.5 23.0 23.9 23.8 25.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.3 23.6 21.9 20.5 19.3 18.2 15.3 32.1 29.2 27.1 27.0 26.0 26.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 12,159,400 11,800,600 11,309,500 10,935,300 10,534,200 10,206,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

France Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 40.1 44.4 37.7 27.2 22.3 Women 33.4 35.0 26.1 14.7 10.1 Total 36.8 39.7 31.8 20.6 14.8 Men 34.3 37.7 32.2 23.4 18.9

Page 2 2010 Women 31.6 32.9 24.6 14.2 9.5 Total 33.0 35.3 28.3 18.6 13.2 Men 27.4 30.2 25.6 18.6 15.2

2025 Women 29.5 30.7 22.8 13.0 8.9 Total 28.4 30.5 24.2 15.7 11.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2004-05 Age (years) 15-75 12-75 Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 37.4 33.3 Women 30.2 26.5 Daily use Men Women 32.4 28.2 26.0 21.7 ... 20.0

Survey name Baromètre santé Baromètre santé

A primary prevention trial using nutritional doses of antioxidant vitamins and minerals cancers in a general population: Study 1994 35-60in cardiovascular . . . diseases . . . and Tobacco smoking 21.3 the SU.VI.MAX 17.2 ... Tobacco consumption 1970-1994 in the member states of the European Union and in Norway and 1991-92 18+ . . Iceland . . . . Cigarette smoking ... ... 39.0

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2010 2002 1998 Age (years) 15-15 15-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.4 26.0 ... Girls 20.3 26.7 ... Daily use Boys 15.0 19.5 20.0 Girls 14.0 20.1 25.0

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 26% of France's population smoked (approximately 13,589,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 22% of the population (approximately 12,211,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 30% of men and about 23% of women smoked in France. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 24% for men and 20% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If France adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, France will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Gabon Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 357 414 477 542 615 698 Women 371 421 478 538 608 688 Both sexes 728 834 955 1,081 1,222 1,386

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Gabon Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 22.3 Women 2.9 Daily use Men Women 21.5 ...

Survey name Enquête Démographique et de Santé au Gabon

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Tabagisme en milieu scolaire secondaire du Gabon 2007 Age (years) 14-16 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 9.1 Girls 5.1 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Gabon.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2012, shows that around 22% of men and around 3% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Gabon. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Gabon adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Gambia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 327 379 442 521 615 726 Women 338 397 466 550 649 764 Both sexes 665 776 908 1,070 1,263 1,490

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Gambia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 Age (years) 25-64 Smokeless use Men 0.8 Women 1.4 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 31.3 Women 1.0 Daily use Men Women 29.4 0.7

Survey name Gambia STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Banjul) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 20.1 Girls 23.3 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 34.0 Girls 36.6 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Gambia.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2010, shows that around 31% of men and around 1% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Gambia. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Gambia adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Georgia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,713 1,685 1,667 1,609 1,555 1,540 Women 1,991 1,969 1,963 1,900 1,834 1,804 Both sexes 3,704 3,654 3,630 3,510 3,389 3,344

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.0 2.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 8.0 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.4

Lower 95% CI 48.7 48.3 46.3 41.0 35.7 28.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 62.7 60.4 58.2 55.9 53.7 52.3 40.7 77.2 73.1 71.9 72.6 74.8 75.1

Point estimate 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 3.9

Lower 95% CI 25.1 24.8 23.5 20.8 18.0 14.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.3 31.0 29.8 28.5 27.3 26.7 20.8 40.0 37.6 36.8 37.0 38.1 38.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,197,600 1,134,100 1,080,000 1,000,200 926,800 891,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.3 18.9 17.6 15.6 13.6 12.0

Lower 95% CI 38.4 37.7 35.4 31.4 27.5 24.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 51.4 49.5 47.4 45.6 44.1 42.8 33.2 65.5 62.2 61.9 63.2 63.4 66.3

Point estimate 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.6

Upper 95% CI 5.6 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.0 25.0 23.8 22.8 22.1 21.4 16.6 33.3 31.5 31.1 31.7 31.9 33.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 964,200 913,000 862,700 800,200 748,100 716,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Georgia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 69.3 70.6 64.9 49.3 39.0 Women 6.7 7.6 7.1 4.5 3.4 Total 37.8 38.0 34.3 24.5 15.9 Men 65.1 66.3 60.2 47.5 36.1

Page 2 2010 Women 6.2 6.9 6.4 4.3 3.1 Total 35.8 35.6 31.2 23.4 15.3 Men 59.9 61.0 55.8 42.8 33.1

2025 Women 5.5 6.2 5.7 3.7 2.7 Total 34.3 33.7 29.0 20.6 13.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2010 2010 2005 2003 Age (years) 18-64 18+ 15-49 15-44 18+ Smokeless use Men 1.0 ... ... ... ... Women 0.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 55.5 52.8 ... ... 58.1 Women 4.8 6.1 5.5 5.9 5.4 Daily use Men Women 51.0 ... ... ... 50.4 4.0 ... 4.6 ... 4.1

Survey name Survey of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases Health in Times of Transition Study Reproductive Health Survey Reproductive Health Survey World Health Survey, Georgia

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Alcohol and Other Drug Use in Georgian Students Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2014 2009 2008 Age (years) blank) 16-16 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 4.0 ... ... Girls 2.8 Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 16.5 22.4 15.2 Girls 7.8 9.5 2.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 30% of Georgia's population smoked (approximately 1,080,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 27% of the population (approximately 891,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 58% of men and about 6% of women smoked in Georgia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 52% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Georgia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Georgia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Germany Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 34,041 34,824 34,964 35,080 34,857 34,373 Women 36,435 37,001 36,920 36,795 36,440 35,900 Both sexes 70,477 71,824 71,884 71,875 71,298 70,273

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 21.6 21.4 20.1 18.8 16.5 14.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 31.0 29.9 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.4

Lower 95% CI 30.0 27.8 25.8 23.4 20.9 17.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.9 34.0 31.6 29.3 27.2 25.2 22.1 43.4 38.9 37.6 35.1 34.5 33.3

Point estimate 26.5 25.5 24.4 23.3 22.1 21.0 17.1

Lower 95% CI 25.7 24.5 22.9 21.0 18.7 16.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.5 29.6 27.9 26.2 24.6 23.1 19.5 37.0 34.3 33.1 31.8 31.0 30.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 22,216,600 21,275,100 20,057,200 18,851,600 17,534,500 16,201,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.2 15.9 14.6 13.7 12.5 10.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 20.6 19.8 18.1 16.8 14.7 12.8

Lower 95% CI 25.3 24.0 21.8 20.0 17.1 15.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.5 28.5 26.3 24.5 22.7 21.1 18.4 36.3 33.6 31.8 30.4 28.4 28.0

Point estimate 19.5 18.7 17.8 17.0 16.2 15.4 12.5

Upper 95% CI 23.4 22.1 20.9 20.7 21.1 20.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.8 23.5 21.9 20.7 19.4 18.2 15.4 29.6 27.7 26.2 25.4 24.7 24.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 17,487,500 16,843,800 15,767,400 14,849,700 13,815,900 12,781,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Germany Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 39.0 46.8 41.2 26.8 15.7 Women 33.6 38.2 32.1 17.2 7.5 Total 36.3 42.6 36.7 21.9 10.3 Men 35.1 41.7 36.6 23.7 13.9

Page 2 2010 Women 32.4 36.5 30.4 16.4 7.2 Total 33.8 39.1 33.6 20.0 9.9 Men 29.8 35.5 31.0 20.2 11.4

2025 Women 30.1 34.0 28.2 15.3 6.5 Total 29.9 34.7 29.6 17.7 8.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012-13 2012 2008-11 2009-10 2010 Age (years) 18+ 18-64 18-79 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 31.5 34.0 32.6 33.9 31.6 Women 23.9 26.2 26.9 26.2 24.7 Daily use Men Women 24.5 ... 26.1 ... ... 18.7 ... 21.4 ... ...

Survey name Gesundheit in Deutschland Aktuell (German Health Update) Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) Studie zur Gesundheit Erwachsener in Deutschland Gesundheit in Deutschland Aktuell (German Health Update) SOEP (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.5 12.1 11.1 Girls 12.6 11.9 12.4 Daily use Boys 4.7 ... 4.5 Girls 4.4 ... 5.2

Boys Girls Survey name Tobacco use of youth and young adults in Germany (Der Tabakkonsum Jugendlicher Deutschland) smoking 2012 12-17 und junger.Erwachsener .. . . in . Tobacco Studie zur Gesundheit von Kindern und Jugendlichen in Deutschland (KiGGS) 11-17 2009-12 Die Drogenaffinität Jugendlicher in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland2011 12-17 ... ... . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of Germany's population smoked (approximately 20,057,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 16,201,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of men and about 24% of women smoked in Germany. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 25% for men and 21% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Germany adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Germany will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Ghana Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 5,525 6,294 7,180 8,168 9,263 10,475 Women 5,501 6,495 7,631 8,554 9,598 10,770 Both sexes 11,026 12,790 14,811 16,722 18,861 21,245

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5

Lower 95% CI 5.7 6.7 7.3 7.3 7.5 6.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.4 9.4 10.5 12.0 13.7 15.9 7.4 11.4 12.5 14.6 17.7 22.7 27.4

Point estimate 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4

Lower 95% CI 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 4.6 4.9 5.3 6.1 6.9 8.0 3.7 6.2 6.6 7.4 9.0 11.5 13.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 502,600 630,600 792,100 1,014,400 1,297,800 1,697,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3

Lower 95% CI 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.6 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.8 12.5 5.7 9.1 10.5 11.6 14.1 18.3 22.1

Point estimate 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

Upper 95% CI 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.5 6.3 2.9 5.0 5.5 5.9 7.1 9.2 11.1

Estimated no. of daily smokers 392,200 491,800 619,300 801,600 1,029,200 1,330,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Ghana Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 6.0 8.1 11.2 11.9 11.5 Women 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 Total 3.3 4.4 6.0 6.3 6.1 Men 7.5 10.2 14.0 15.0 14.4

Page 2 2010 Women 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 Total 4.0 5.1 7.0 7.6 6.2 Men 11.1 15.0 20.5 22.0 21.2

2025 Women 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Total 5.8 7.7 9.9 10.5 9.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008 2003 2003 Age (years) 15-49 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men 1.7 ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 6.2 9.0 9.0 Women 0.4 1.2 0.1 Daily use Men Women ... 6.2 8.5 ... 0.4 0.0

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Ghana Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-based Student Survey (GSHS) Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2009 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 9.2 14.1 11.6 Girls 7.1 10.6 10.9 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 5% of Ghana's population smoked (approximately 792,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 8% of the population (approximately 1,697,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 11% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Ghana. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 16% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Ghana adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Ghana will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Greece Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,561 4,626 4,648 4,651 4,642 4,672 Women 4,757 4,828 4,849 4,842 4,816 4,827 Both sexes 9,318 9,454 9,497 9,493 9,458 9,499

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 23.4 23.1 20.6 18.6 15.4 12.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 60.5 52.4 46.6 44.4 41.8 42.9

Lower 95% CI 39.0 41.1 42.1 34.7 33.4 26.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 62.9 59.2 55.7 52.7 49.7 47.6 39.0 87.7 79.7 73.4 68.1 70.8 72.3

Point estimate 40.9 36.9 33.5 30.8 28.3 26.3 23.5

Lower 95% CI 31.0 31.9 31.1 26.5 24.2 19.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 51.7 47.8 44.4 41.5 38.8 36.8 31.1 73.8 65.8 59.7 56.0 56.0 57.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 4,814,500 4,519,900 4,213,600 3,942,400 3,669,900 3,493,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.8 15.7 13.9 12.8 11.0 8.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 24.6 24.0 23.2 21.0 18.8 15.0

Lower 95% CI 32.8 32.7 32.9 29.6 26.9 21.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 53.6 50.3 47.1 44.8 42.7 40.5 33.0 79.8 68.6 63.3 61.3 63.1 63.7

Point estimate 30.3 27.3 24.9 22.9 21.0 19.6 17.4

Upper 95% CI 49.0 40.9 36.7 34.7 34.4 33.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 41.7 38.6 35.8 33.6 31.6 29.9 25.0 64.1 54.5 49.7 47.7 48.5 48.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,886,100 3,644,700 3,396,800 3,192,500 2,993,400 2,838,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Greece Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 58.9 64.8 66.2 62.3 58.7 Women 45.7 46.0 41.7 35.8 32.4 Total 52.6 55.5 53.8 48.3 43.7 Men 52.0 57.3 58.5 55.2 51.8

Page 2 2010 Women 37.9 38.2 34.6 30.0 27.0 Total 45.2 48.1 46.5 42.1 37.5 Men 44.4 49.1 50.2 47.3 44.4

2025 Women 30.3 30.6 27.7 24.1 21.7 Total 37.6 40.1 39.3 35.4 31.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2010 2009 2004 Age (years) 15+ 18+ 15+ 18-74 Smokeless use Men 0.2 ... ... ... ... Women 0.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 51.2 45.0 44.2 48.2 ... Women 25.7 38.0 31.9 35.1 ... Daily use Men Women 49.7 ... ... ... 61.3 23.9 ... ... ... 19.1

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey Hellas Health Survey III, HEART National Health Survey National Nutrition and Health Survey

Tobacco smoking in relation to body fat mass and distribution in a1994-99 general population 25-84sample

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2010 2005 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.5 ... 7.6 Girls 1.3 Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 7.2 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 16.9 17.5 17.1 Girls 12.9 13.2 14.4 Daily use Boys ... 13.0 ... Girls ... 8.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 44% of Greece's population smoked (approximately 4,213,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 37% of the population (approximately 3,493,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 56% of men and about 34% of women smoked in Greece. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 48% for men and 26% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Greece adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Greece will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Grenada Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 32 35 38 39 40 41 Women 34 37 38 39 40 41 Both sexes 66 72 76 78 80 81

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Grenada Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010-11 Age (years) 25-64 Smokeless use Men 2.2 Women 0.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 30.3 Women 6.5 Daily use Men Women 19.2 2.8

Survey name Grenada STEPS

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2008 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 10.1 ... ... Girls 6.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.5 9.6 17.6 Girls 16.7 4.4 15.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Grenada.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2010-11, shows that around 30% of men and around 7% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Grenada. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Grenada adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Guatemala Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,006 3,419 3,970 4,654 5,422 6,249 Women 3,261 3,788 4,417 5,152 5,964 6,825 Both sexes 6,267 7,207 8,387 9,807 11,386 13,074

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Guatemala Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2003 Age (years) 18+ Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 24.2 Women 3.5 Daily use Men Women 8.0 0.9

Survey name World Health Survey, Guatemala

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Guatemala City) 2008 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.7 19.6 Girls 13.3 12.3 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Guatemala.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2003, shows that around 24% of men and around 4% of women aged 18+ smoked in Guatemala. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Guatemala adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Guinea Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,420 2,682 3,095 3,584 4,139 4,761 Women 2,476 2,717 3,122 3,601 4,146 4,756 Both sexes 4,896 5,399 6,217 7,186 8,285 9,517

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Guinea Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2005 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... Women 0.8 Daily use Men Women ... 0.8

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 30.8 Girls 20.0 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Guinea.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2005, shows that around 1% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Guinea. There were no data for men.

If Guinea adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Guinea-Bissau Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 354 401 456 522 595 676 Women 365 411 466 532 607 690 Both sexes 719 812 922 1,054 1,202 1,366

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Guinea-Bissau Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Bissau) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.5 Girls 10.3 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Guinea-Bissau.

If Guinea-Bissau adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Guyana Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 241 238 242 264 293 314 Women 241 245 249 265 288 306 Both sexes 481 482 491 529 581 620

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Guyana Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 29.4 Women 3.2 Daily use Men Women 26.2 2.6

Survey name Guyana Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2010 2010 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 7.9 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 6.6 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.7 25.3 15.4 Girls 8.7 16.0 5.3 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Guyana.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2009, shows that around 29% of men and around 3% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Guyana. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Guyana adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Haiti Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,482 2,786 3,070 3,395 3,714 4,031 Women 2,637 2,949 3,249 3,585 3,917 4,246 Both sexes 5,119 5,735 6,319 6,980 7,631 8,277

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 5.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6

Lower 95% CI 11.4 11.9 13.0 11.9 10.6 9.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.3 18.2 19.5 20.9 22.7 24.9 13.7 25.2 25.1 28.4 30.9 37.0 43.1

Point estimate 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.0

Lower 95% CI 6.7 6.8 7.1 6.5 5.7 4.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.1 7.6 14.9 14.5 15.9 17.0 19.9 22.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 527,000 601,400 689,600 795,600 929,300 1,084,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.3

Lower 95% CI 6.2 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.6 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.4 18.0 9.9 19.2 20.8 22.8 24.7 28.5 33.7

Point estimate 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5

Upper 95% CI 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.9 9.5 5.6 11.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 15.4 17.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 386,600 438,500 501,100 580,600 675,700 789,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Haiti Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 14.1 16.7 20.5 22.3 22.6 Women 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.6 Total 8.6 9.9 12.1 12.9 12.7 Men 15.9 18.6 23.2 25.2 25.6

Page 2 2010 Women 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.4 Total 9.1 10.4 12.9 13.7 13.2 Men 19.7 23.4 28.8 31.5 31.9

2025 Women 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 Total 10.7 12.4 15.0 16.2 15.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2005-06 2000 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 15-49 12-45 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Men 11.2 ... 16.1 10.7 Women 2.0 3.2 4.4 8.6 Daily use Men Women 9.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Enquête Mortalité, Morbidité et Utilisation des Services en Haïti Demographic and Health Survey Enquête Mortalité, Morbidité et Utilisation des Services

National study of drug prevalence and attitudes towards drug use in1990 Haiti

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2005 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.3 Girls 19.2 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 11% of Haiti's population smoked (approximately 689,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 1,084,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 20% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Haiti. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 25% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Haiti adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Haiti will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Honduras Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,774 2,046 2,380 2,741 3,103 3,471 Women 1,819 2,106 2,437 2,793 3,145 3,505 Both sexes 3,592 4,152 4,817 5,534 6,248 6,976

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.9 5.2 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.5

Lower 95% CI 34.2 28.6 28.6 23.5 15.3 10.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 60.0 49.0 40.2 33.2 27.8 23.8 28.1 100.0 72.4 54.4 46.4 42.4 41.1

Point estimate 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.8

Lower 95% CI 17.8 15.0 14.9 12.2 8.0 5.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.7 25.8 21.2 17.5 14.7 12.5 14.8 52.9 38.3 28.9 24.7 22.5 21.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,140,500 1,072,200 1,020,200 968,700 916,100 875,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 6.8 6.5 6.5 4.9 3.7 2.2

Lower 95% CI 12.8 12.5 12.4 9.3 7.0 4.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.1 29.1 23.8 19.6 16.4 14.0 16.7 67.1 48.4 39.1 31.2 27.4 26.1

Point estimate 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1

Upper 95% CI 4.6 3.2 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 19.1 15.3 12.5 10.3 8.6 7.4 8.8 35.5 25.5 20.7 16.5 14.6 13.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 685,700 635,500 603,000 570,800 540,300 514,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Honduras Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 59.2 60.8 60.3 59.7 60.7 Women 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 Total 31.5 31.8 32.4 32.1 30.0 Men 39.5 40.6 40.3 40.2 41.4

Page 2 2010 Women 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Total 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 20.5 Men 23.4 23.9 23.8 23.8 24.5

2025 Women 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Total 12.6 12.8 12.3 12.2 12.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 2005-06 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 24.1 ... Women 1.7 2.3 Daily use Men Women 19.9 ... ... ...

Survey name Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud ENDESA Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud ENDESA

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Tegucigalpa) 2012 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.0 22.8 Girls 11.1 18.2 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Honduras's population smoked (approximately 1,020,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 875,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 40% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Honduras. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 24% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Honduras adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Honduras will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Hungary Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,985 3,990 4,004 3,959 3,909 3,868 Women 4,520 4,541 4,544 4,486 4,419 4,357 Both sexes 8,505 8,531 8,548 8,445 8,328 8,225

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 23.9 22.1 18.7 16.0 12.5 9.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 38.7 33.2 29.4 27.6 25.5 24.1

Lower 95% CI 35.0 31.1 28.0 22.6 18.7 14.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 44.8 39.3 34.6 30.5 26.8 23.7 24.2 56.1 46.9 42.4 38.7 36.3 33.8

Point estimate 30.9 27.3 24.1 21.4 19.1 17.0 16.9

Lower 95% CI 29.1 26.3 23.1 19.1 15.4 12.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.4 32.9 29.0 25.7 22.7 20.2 20.3 46.9 39.6 35.5 32.8 30.6 28.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,181,800 2,807,600 2,480,500 2,167,400 1,891,600 1,657,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 19.6 18.5 15.4 13.1 11.0 8.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 24.4 22.2 18.8 16.1 13.0 10.2

Lower 95% CI 29.8 26.5 22.6 19.6 15.2 12.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 39.0 34.1 30.0 26.5 23.3 20.6 21.0 48.2 40.9 36.6 34.7 31.3 29.4

Point estimate 25.9 22.9 20.3 18.0 16.0 14.2 14.2

Upper 95% CI 32.9 28.5 25.0 22.8 21.3 20.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.0 28.1 24.8 22.0 19.4 17.2 17.4 40.1 34.3 30.4 28.4 26.0 24.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,724,700 2,400,300 2,123,700 1,856,500 1,617,800 1,415,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Hungary Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 51.3 52.4 47.7 33.6 23.4 Women 39.2 41.4 36.3 20.7 10.9 Total 45.4 47.0 41.8 26.3 15.3 Men 39.9 40.9 37.0 26.4 18.0

Page 2 2010 Women 31.3 33.2 28.8 16.7 8.5 Total 35.7 37.1 32.8 21.0 11.7 Men 28.1 28.8 26.1 18.4 12.7

2025 Women 22.9 24.4 21.2 12.0 6.3 Total 25.6 26.6 23.7 14.9 8.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2012 2009 2003 2003 Age (years) 18+ 18+ 15+ 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 25.1 33.8 36.8 42.5 40.5 Women 16.2 24.7 26.7 31.3 27.9 Daily use Men Women 22.8 32.3 32.4 38.6 36.9 14.6 23.6 22.3 27.7 24.6

Survey name Felnott Dohányzás Felmérés (Adult Tobacco Survey) Felnott Dohányzás Felmérés (Adult Tobacco Survey) European Health Interview Survey World Health Survey, Hungary National Health Interview Survey (OLEF)

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2013 2012 2010 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.6 4.0 ... Girls 1.4 Any tobacco use 1.0 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 33.0 40.6 25.8 Girls 28.0 30.3 25.6 Daily use Boys ... ... 21.0 Girls ... ... 19.0

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of Hungary's population smoked (approximately 2,480,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 20% of the population (approximately 1,657,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 35% of men and about 24% of women smoked in Hungary. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 24% for men and 17% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Hungary adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Hungary will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Iceland Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 107 116 126 134 141 149 Women 108 116 125 133 140 148 Both sexes 216 231 252 267 282 297

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 17.4 16.0 12.5 10.3 7.4 4.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 36.4 27.5 22.4 20.8 17.9 16.0

Lower 95% CI 21.7 19.0 14.8 10.8 7.3 4.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.3 26.3 20.9 16.8 13.4 11.0 14.6 47.9 35.1 27.3 23.8 19.9 18.3

Point estimate 26.6 21.7 17.7 14.7 12.2 10.2 12.4

Lower 95% CI 19.5 17.5 13.7 10.6 7.3 4.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.9 24.0 19.3 15.7 12.8 10.6 13.5 42.1 31.3 24.9 22.3 18.9 17.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 64,600 55,500 48,500 42,100 36,100 31,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 14.1 13.0 10.6 7.4 5.2 3.7

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 14.4 12.4 10.2 7.2 4.8 3.4

Lower 95% CI 14.8 11.9 9.8 7.1 4.5 3.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.3 18.3 14.7 11.8 9.5 7.7 10.3 33.4 24.7 20.0 16.9 14.6 13.4

Point estimate 21.2 17.3 14.3 11.9 9.8 8.2 10.0

Upper 95% CI 28.8 22.7 18.7 16.3 14.3 13.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.2 17.8 14.5 11.9 9.7 7.9 10.2 31.1 23.7 19.4 16.6 14.5 13.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 48,000 41,200 36,500 31,700 27,200 23,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Iceland Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 34.9 35.1 34.1 30.6 25.7 Women 28.1 28.4 28.3 25.0 18.8 Total 31.5 31.8 31.3 27.8 21.8 Men 22.1 22.2 21.5 19.4 16.1

Page 2 2010 Women 18.8 18.9 18.9 16.8 12.4 Total 20.5 20.6 20.2 18.1 14.0 Men 11.8 11.8 11.5 10.3 8.6

2025 Women 11.0 11.1 11.0 9.7 7.3 Total 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.0 7.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 Age (years) 15-89 Smokeless use Men ... 7.3 ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking ... ... . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 16.0 ... 19.1 22.9 22.0 Women 17.0 ... 18.6 19.4 23.0 Daily use Men Women 11.0 ... 14.4 20.1 19.3 12.0 ... 14.2 15.0 19.2

Survey name Umfang reykinga – Samantekt Household Surveys Prevalence of smoking in Iceland Prevalence of smoking in Iceland

Landlæknisembættið: Tóbakskönnun (Capacent-Gallup phone survey, March-April) 2012 18+ 2011 2008 2005 15-89 15-89 15-89

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Rannsóknir og greining lagði fyrir nemendur í framhaldsskólum á Íslandi 2013 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2010 Rannsóknir og greining lagði fyrir nemendur í framhaldsskólum á Íslandi 2010 Age (years) 16-18 15-15 16-18 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls 3.8 Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 3.0 Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys ... 8.8 ... Girls ... 6.8 ... Daily use Boys 5.4 6.0 8.4 Girls 5.5 5.0 8.7

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 19% of Iceland's population smoked (approximately 48,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 31,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of men and about 18% of women smoked in Iceland. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 11% for men and 10% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Iceland adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Iceland will achieve the smoking component of the target.

India Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 353,829 393,161 432,428 471,340 509,347 543,656 Women 331,772 370,816 409,432 447,237 484,024 517,536 Both sexes 685,601 763,977 841,860 918,577 993,371 1,061,191

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.7 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 7.8 4.7 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.3

Lower 95% CI 23.7 22.1 19.1 13.7 9.5 6.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.8 28.0 23.5 19.9 17.0 14.6 16.5 46.9 34.3 28.1 26.3 25.3 25.1

Point estimate 5.7 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.8

Lower 95% CI 14.0 12.8 10.7 7.6 5.2 3.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.2 16.3 13.3 11.0 9.3 7.9 9.3 28.0 19.9 15.9 14.6 13.8 13.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 138,505,200 124,176,100 111,856,400 101,399,700 91,913,300 83,514,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 11.6 11.0 9.0 6.4 4.2 2.9

Lower 95% CI 19.6 19.2 15.9 11.5 7.6 5.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.5 24.4 20.5 17.3 14.7 12.7 14.4 40.5 30.6 24.9 23.1 21.6 20.8

Point estimate 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.5

Upper 95% CI 6.7 4.0 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.6 14.1 11.6 9.6 8.0 6.8 8.1 24.1 17.7 14.1 12.8 11.8 11.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 120,636,400 107,797,400 97,245,800 87,803,100 79,714,300 72,667,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

India Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 18.6 34.0 48.3 44.8 36.4 Women 0.6 3.1 7.8 15.3 25.2 Total 10.0 19.3 28.9 29.8 30.6 Men 12.7 23.1 32.9 30.6 24.7

Page 2 2010 Women 0.2 1.3 3.2 6.1 10.2 Total 6.8 12.6 18.6 18.3 16.8 Men 7.7 14.0 19.8 18.2 14.8

2025 Women 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 Total 4.1 7.5 10.5 9.9 8.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009-10 2005-06 Age (years) 15+ 15-49 12-60 15+ Smokeless use Men 32.9 36.9 ... 28.3 Women 18.4 Tobacco smoking 9.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use 12.4 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 24.3 ... 55.8 29.4 Women 2.9 1.4 ... 2.5 Daily use Men Women 18.3 ... ... ... 2.4 1.4 ... ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - India National Family Health Survey (NFHS) National Family Health Survey (NFHS)

The extent, pattern and trends of drug abuse in India. National survey 2000-01 1998-99

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 11.1 ... 10.7 Girls 6.0 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use 7.5 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.0 4.5 16.8 Girls 8.3 2.4 9.4 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Subnational - CBSE) 2007

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 13% of India's population smoked (approximately 111,856,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 8% of the population (approximately 83,514,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of men and about 3% of women smoked in India. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 15% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If India adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, India will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Indonesia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 71,900 78,227 84,146 91,807 99,768 107,642 Women 72,979 78,903 84,739 92,174 99,985 107,886 Both sexes 144,878 157,130 168,885 183,981 199,754 215,528

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.2 5.3 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.9

Lower 95% CI 39.9 48.7 54.0 58.9 62.4 63.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 54.8 61.1 67.9 75.9 82.5 87.2 47.5 71.5 74.3 81.4 94.8 100.0 100.0

Point estimate 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6

Lower 95% CI 21.7 26.0 28.4 30.6 32.2 32.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.7 32.6 35.7 39.5 42.7 44.9 25.0 38.6 39.7 42.9 49.4 51.9 51.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 42,977,000 51,189,300 60,270,600 72,723,300 85,308,500 96,776,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 18.8 21.5 23.8 26.1 26.7 26.7

Lower 95% CI 35.4 41.0 45.8 50.8 52.2 52.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.7 53.2 59.6 66.6 73.9 79.7 41.7 61.4 65.0 72.5 87.3 97.7 100.0

Point estimate 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7

Upper 95% CI 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.2 27.8 30.9 34.3 37.9 40.7 21.6 32.5 34.0 37.6 45.0 50.1 51.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 36,558,500 43,747,000 52,184,900 63,079,200 75,628,600 87,624,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Indonesia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 44.9 57.7 60.3 61.5 59.1 Women 1.5 3.0 6.4 12.2 17.5 Total 23.5 30.4 33.2 35.3 35.8 Men 54.6 70.4 73.5 74.9 71.9

Page 2 2010 Women 1.1 2.1 4.6 8.6 12.4 Total 28.0 36.4 39.3 41.0 37.9 Men 75.0 89.7 91.6 92.0 89.7

2025 Women 0.7 1.3 2.8 5.3 7.6 Total 38.8 46.0 47.1 47.8 44.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2007 Age (years) 10+ 15-49 15+ 15+ 10+ Smokeless use Men 3.7 0.5 1.5 ... ... Women 4.5 Tobacco smoking 0.4 Cigarette smoking 2.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 56.7 ... 67.0 65.9 55.7 Women 1.9 2.3 2.7 4.2 4.4 Daily use Men Women 47.5 ... 56.7 54.1 45.8 1.1 ... 1.8 2.8 3.0

Survey name Basic Health Research (RISKESDAS) Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) Basic Health Research (RISKESDAS) Basic Health Research (RISKESDAS)

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Java and Sumatra) Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2014 2009 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 3.0 3.3 ... Girls 1.1 Any tobacco use 2.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 36.2 41.0 23.4 Girls 4.3 6.2 1.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 36% of Indonesia's population smoked (approximately 60,270,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 45% of the population (approximately 96,776,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 68% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Indonesia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 87% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Indonesia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Indonesia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Iran (Islamic Republic of) Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 21,829 26,635 28,662 30,129 31,883 33,985 Women 21,232 25,402 28,215 30,207 31,903 34,095 Both sexes 43,061 52,037 56,877 60,335 63,786 68,080

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.9 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4

Lower 95% CI 19.1 18.3 18.0 15.1 11.3 8.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.7 24.1 22.2 21.1 19.9 18.5 15.5 35.8 29.1 27.2 27.9 28.4 29.7

Point estimate 5.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.9

Lower 95% CI 11.3 10.2 9.6 7.7 5.7 4.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.0 13.6 11.8 10.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 21.6 16.5 14.6 14.4 14.5 15.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 6,889,900 7,054,000 6,729,700 6,568,600 6,472,400 6,355,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 9.8 9.5 8.3 6.9 5.3 3.7

Lower 95% CI 16.9 17.3 15.8 13.5 10.5 7.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.7 21.5 19.8 18.7 17.8 16.5 13.9 32.0 26.3 23.7 25.0 26.2 26.5

Point estimate 3.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7

Upper 95% CI 5.3 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.9 11.9 10.5 9.6 9.0 8.3 7.3 18.8 14.7 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 6,001,500 6,209,100 5,957,200 5,785,100 5,771,000 5,675,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Iran (Islamic Republic of) Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 15.4 27.9 39.5 37.1 37.1 Women 3.1 4.3 6.8 9.1 9.7 Total 9.4 16.1 23.4 23.3 23.8 Men 12.5 21.8 31.1 29.3 29.3

Page 2 2010 Women 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.4 Total 6.7 11.5 16.6 15.4 16.3 Men 9.1 17.4 23.1 21.8 21.8

2025 Women 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Total 4.7 8.8 11.7 10.8 10.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2009 Age (years) 15-64 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 20.8 22.1 22.6 23.2 24.1 Women 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 4.3 Daily use Men Women 19.2 20.4 20.7 21.7 20.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.9

Survey name Sixth national survey of NCD Risk Factors Surveillance Iran STEPS Survey

Chronic Diseases Risk Factor Surveillance: WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance 2008 15-64 Survey of the non-communicable disease risk factor surveillance system 2007of Iran15-64 Survey of the non-communicable disease risk factor surveillance system 2005of Iran15-64

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.4 ... Girls 4.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 32.9 17.6 Girls 19.5 8.9 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 12% of Iran (Islamic Republic of)'s population smoked (approximately 6,729,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 9% of the population (approximately 6,355,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 22% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Iran (Islamic Republic of). By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 19% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Iran (Islamic Republic of) adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Iran (Islamic Republic of) will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Iraq Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 6,795 7,959 9,102 10,860 12,720 14,721 Women 6,819 7,936 9,095 10,874 12,760 14,795 Both sexes 13,615 15,895 18,197 21,734 25,480 29,516

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Iraq Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2006-07 2006 Age (years) 12+ 25-65 Smokeless use Men ... 1.6 Women . . . Tobacco smoking 0.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.5 41.5 Women 2.9 6.9 Daily use Men Women ... 41.0 ... 6.7

Survey name Iraq Family Health Survey Non-Communicable Diseases Risk Factors Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-based Student Survey (GSHS) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Baghdad) 2012 2012 2008 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... 7.2 Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking 5.8 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.1 12.1 13.9 Girls 4.6 4.6 11.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Iraq.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2006-07, shows that around 27% of men and around 3% of women aged 12+ smoked in Iraq. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Iraq adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Italy Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 23,387 24,235 24,991 25,329 25,546 25,653 Women 25,437 26,169 27,023 27,238 27,339 27,349 Both sexes 48,824 50,404 52,014 52,567 52,885 53,001

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 15.6 15.8 15.0 14.8 12.9 12.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 22.2 21.8 21.1 21.3 20.7 21.2

Lower 95% CI 26.3 26.4 24.4 22.5 19.8 17.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.5 30.8 29.0 27.2 25.5 24.1 20.3 38.1 36.5 33.7 32.4 30.7 30.2

Point estimate 18.6 18.5 18.1 17.6 17.2 16.7 12.7

Lower 95% CI 20.7 20.9 19.5 18.5 16.2 14.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.3 24.4 23.3 22.2 21.2 20.3 16.3 29.8 28.9 27.2 26.6 25.5 25.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 12,332,100 12,305,800 12,138,500 11,683,400 11,216,600 10,749,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 13.5 13.4 13.5 12.6 12.2 10.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 17.8 17.4 16.5 15.2 14.8 12.7

Lower 95% CI 22.4 21.7 19.8 18.0 17.5 14.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.2 27.7 26.1 24.5 23.0 21.6 18.3 36.1 33.6 31.3 30.0 29.3 28.0

Point estimate 17.3 16.9 16.6 16.3 15.9 15.3 11.6

Upper 95% CI 21.4 20.2 20.4 19.8 20.0 19.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.0 22.1 21.2 20.3 19.3 18.3 14.8 28.4 26.6 25.6 24.7 24.5 23.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 11,229,600 11,135,800 11,008,400 10,645,400 10,222,500 9,725,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Italy Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 25.0 40.2 38.7 28.6 17.1 Women 15.0 25.4 25.5 15.1 6.3 Total 20.1 32.8 32.0 21.5 10.5 Men 22.2 36.5 35.1 26.0 15.1

Page 2 2010 Women 14.5 25.2 25.2 15.0 6.0 Total 18.5 30.9 30.1 20.3 9.7 Men 19.2 31.6 30.2 22.6 12.8

2025 Women 14.3 24.7 24.6 14.9 5.7 Total 16.8 28.2 27.4 18.7 8.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2014 2013 2013 2012 2012 Age (years) 15+ 14+ 15+ 14+ 18-69 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 24.5 26.4 26.2 27.9 33.0 Women 14.8 15.7 15.3 16.3 ... Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 23.0

Survey name National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) Survey by DOXA/ISS National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) Surveillance System Passi

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2014 2010 2010 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.6 21.9 19.4 Girls 26.3 23.1 21.6 Daily use Boys ... 15.0 ... Girls ... 16.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of Italy's population smoked (approximately 12,138,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 20% of the population (approximately 10,749,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of men and about 18% of women smoked in Italy. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 24% for men and 17% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Italy adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Italy will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Jamaica Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 850 899 947 1,013 1,051 1,084 Women 889 949 998 1,068 1,111 1,144 Both sexes 1,739 1,847 1,945 2,081 2,162 2,228

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 5.6 4.9 3.6 2.9 2.1 1.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 12.9 11.0 10.0 9.5 9.1 8.7

Lower 95% CI 17.8 18.5 17.4 13.5 12.4 9.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.6 30.6 31.8 20.3 39.7 40.4 41.8 45.1 52.1 59.6

Point estimate 8.8 7.7 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.6 4.7

Lower 95% CI 11.6 11.5 10.3 8.1 7.1 5.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.4 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.5 17.8 12.3 26.0 25.3 25.5 26.8 30.0 33.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 319,700 330,100 341,500 362,900 379,300 397,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 3.2 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 6.8 6.7 6.4 5.8 4.3 3.1

Lower 95% CI 10.5 11.1 10.6 10.1 7.5 5.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.6 22.4 23.2 14.9 32.8 33.0 34.1 37.3 39.7 44.0

Point estimate 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.6

Upper 95% CI 10.4 8.7 8.2 7.4 7.3 6.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.6 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.9 13.1 9.1 21.4 20.5 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 237,300 244,600 252,600 265,800 279,800 291,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Jamaica Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 23.1 28.1 32.0 32.6 32.8 Women 7.8 9.0 9.6 9.3 9.2 Total 15.4 18.2 20.8 20.7 20.1 Men 23.4 28.6 32.3 32.9 33.1

Page 2 2010 Women 5.9 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.9 Total 14.8 17.2 19.3 20.0 18.2 Men 25.5 30.8 34.9 35.4 35.6

2025 Women 4.1 4.6 5.0 4.8 4.8 Total 14.9 17.9 18.9 19.2 18.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007-08 2000 1991 Age (years) 15-74 15-49 10+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 22.9 28.6 25.1 Women 7.5 7.7 5.9 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Health and Lifestyle Survey II High risk health behaviours among adult Jamaicans Tobacco or Health: Status in the Americas

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Jamaican Youth Risk and Resiliency Behaviour Survey 2010 2010 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 15-19 Smokeless use Boys ... 8.5 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 8.5 Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 38.7 31.3 28.8 Girls 20.1 24.6 16.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of Jamaica's population smoked (approximately 341,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 18% of the population (approximately 397,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of men and about 7% of women smoked in Jamaica. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 32% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Jamaica adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Jamaica will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Kenya Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 8,640 10,160 11,657 13,492 15,693 18,199 Women 8,829 10,319 11,839 13,716 15,965 18,529 Both sexes 17,469 20,479 23,496 27,208 31,658 36,728

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7

Lower 95% CI 21.3 21.2 18.7 16.5 13.1 10.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.1 26.8 25.1 23.7 22.2 20.8 17.6 38.0 34.0 32.0 32.2 33.2 33.3

Point estimate 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5

Lower 95% CI 11.4 11.3 9.9 8.7 6.9 5.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.7 14.5 13.5 12.7 11.9 11.1 9.5 20.7 18.5 17.3 17.4 17.9 17.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,743,800 2,960,200 3,174,500 3,458,200 3,755,200 4,063,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 7.5 7.0 6.4 5.2 4.5 3.5

Lower 95% CI 14.3 13.3 12.2 10.0 8.6 6.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.3 19.6 18.4 17.3 16.3 15.3 12.9 28.7 25.6 24.7 24.1 24.9 25.2

Point estimate 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

Upper 95% CI 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.3 10.4 9.7 9.1 8.5 8.0 6.8 15.3 13.7 13.2 12.8 13.1 13.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,972,800 2,125,500 2,286,900 2,471,300 2,701,600 2,951,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Kenya Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 22.7 31.9 38.4 31.6 24.7 Women 2.0 2.3 3.2 4.5 5.3 Total 12.4 17.1 20.2 17.4 14.5 Men 19.4 27.1 32.5 27.2 20.9

Page 2 2010 Women 1.6 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.2 Total 10.5 14.5 17.3 14.7 11.7 Men 15.7 22.3 26.5 22.1 17.2

2025 Women 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.0 Total 8.4 11.8 14.2 11.8 9.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2014 2008-09 2004 2003 Age (years) 15+ 15-49 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men 5.3 ... ... ... Women 3.8 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 15.1 18.2 26.2 22.9 Women 0.8 0.3 1.9 0.7 Daily use Men Women 11.6 18.1 21.2 ... 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.6

Survey name Kenya GATS Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Kenya Kenya Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2013 2007 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 4.3 ... ... Girls 3.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.8 14.9 21.4 Girls 6.7 14.5 13.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 14% of Kenya's population smoked (approximately 3,174,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 4,063,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Kenya. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 21% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Kenya adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Kenya will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Kiribati Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 24 28 32 36 39 43 Women 26 29 33 37 41 44 Both sexes 50 57 65 73 80 87

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 32.8 33.9 30.7 24.1 19.1 13.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 67.7 59.5 57.7 60.5 65.6 68.0

Lower 95% CI 62.1 57.5 50.6 41.4 28.6 28.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 82.7 76.5 69.8 64.2 59.4 55.1 48.9 100.0 95.7 91.9 92.0 91.1 100.0

Point estimate 50.1 46.1 42.8 40.2 38.4 36.6 30.0

Lower 95% CI 47.1 45.4 40.5 32.6 23.8 20.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 65.9 60.9 56.1 52.0 48.8 45.8 39.3 83.4 77.2 74.5 76.0 78.2 83.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 32,800 34,700 36,400 37,900 39,000 39,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 27.3 28.3 24.0 20.5 14.1 10.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 39.7 37.1 33.2 27.3 19.2 14.5

Lower 95% CI 52.7 46.4 42.7 34.3 24.4 19.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 72.4 65.9 60.3 55.4 51.5 48.1 42.2 99.6 83.1 81.2 80.4 81.7 87.1

Point estimate 41.5 38.1 35.4 33.4 31.7 30.5 24.8

Upper 95% CI 56.9 49.8 47.5 50.2 52.3 57.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 56.4 51.6 47.6 44.2 41.4 39.2 33.3 77.7 66.1 64.0 65.1 66.8 71.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 28,100 29,400 30,900 32,200 33,100 33,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Kiribati Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 82.4 84.1 83.2 78.4 76.2 Women 44.6 49.7 54.9 55.5 54.9 Total 63.5 66.5 69.0 65.8 63.1 Men 69.9 71.2 70.1 65.8 64.5

Page 2 2010 Women 38.2 42.2 47.0 47.4 47.0 Total 54.4 56.2 58.4 56.0 53.7 Men 55.3 56.3 55.6 52.4 51.5

2025 Women 32.2 35.7 39.6 39.9 39.5 Total 44.0 46.2 47.3 45.8 44.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2004-06 1999 Age (years) 15-64 16+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 74.1 56.5 Women 43.1 32.3 Daily use Men Women 71.5 ... 39.2 ...

Survey name Kiribati NCD Risk Factors (STEPS) Country Profiles on Tobacco or Health 2000

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2009 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 37.7 43.2 Girls 22.3 31.6 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 56% of Kiribati's population smoked (approximately 36,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 46% of the population (approximately 39,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 70% of men and about 43% of women smoked in Kiribati. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 55% for men and 37% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Kiribati adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Kiribati will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Kuwait Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 875 1,068 1,403 1,691 1,871 2,065 Women 542 642 834 1,013 1,154 1,311 Both sexes 1,417 1,711 2,237 2,703 3,025 3,376

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Kuwait Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 20-64 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 42.3 Women 4.4 Daily use Men Women 37.8 3.0

Survey name

The Risk Factors of Non Communicable Diseases in the State of Kuwait 2006

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2009 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 25.0 25.0 28.0 Girls 8.5 11.3 14.3 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Kuwait.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2006, shows that around 42% of men and around 4% of women aged 20-64 smoked in Kuwait. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Kuwait adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Kyrgyzstan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,561 1,690 1,815 1,914 2,018 2,166 Women 1,661 1,775 1,917 2,028 2,149 2,315 Both sexes 3,222 3,466 3,732 3,942 4,167 4,481

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.9

Lower 95% CI 38.0 39.1 39.5 37.7 37.4 33.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 49.8 49.0 49.0 49.7 50.3 50.8 34.3 62.4 59.8 58.9 62.5 66.7 69.7

Point estimate 4.9 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8

Lower 95% CI 20.1 20.7 20.7 19.5 19.1 16.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.7 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 18.1 33.6 32.1 31.3 32.9 34.8 36.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 858,700 906,300 966,000 1,024,500 1,085,900 1,169,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 14.0 14.1 13.8 13.3 13.1 12.5

Lower 95% CI 26.7 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.7 24.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 39.4 39.2 38.8 39.4 39.9 40.4 27.2 53.7 51.7 50.3 52.4 54.8 59.1

Point estimate 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0

Upper 95% CI 5.4 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.9 20.8 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 14.3 28.8 27.6 26.6 27.5 28.4 30.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 674,800 719,400 759,800 807,000 856,700 926,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Kyrgyzstan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 37.7 53.3 62.6 51.2 43.0 Women 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.1 Total 21.4 29.1 32.8 25.8 17.8 Men 37.5 52.3 61.5 52.1 41.9

Page 2 2010 Women 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.4 Total 20.8 28.1 31.7 25.3 18.6 Men 37.3 53.5 61.5 51.3 42.4

2025 Women 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.6 Total 20.4 28.3 31.3 24.2 16.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2012 2010 Age (years) 25-64 15-49 18+ 15+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... 10.5 ... ... 6.5 Women . . . Tobacco smoking 0.2 Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 0.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 48.2 43.8 41.2 45.0 41.0 Women 2.7 2.6 5.9 1.6 1.9 Daily use Men Women 41.7 43.8 ... ... ... 2.4 ... ... ... ...

Survey name Kyrgyzstan STEPS Kyrgyz Demographic and Health Survey Health in Times of Transition Study CINDI Kyrgyzstan

National epidemiological study of tobacco use prevalence in Kyrgyzstan 2005 2002

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2014 2008 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 7.6 3.2 ... Girls 2.9 Any tobacco use 0.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.3 10.3 10.8 Girls 4.5 4.4 4.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 26% of Kyrgyzstan's population smoked (approximately 966,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 26% of the population (approximately 1,169,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 49% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Kyrgyzstan. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 51% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Kyrgyzstan adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Kyrgyzstan will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Lao People's Democratic Republic Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,494 1,677 1,979 2,266 2,516 2,817 Women 1,550 1,775 2,065 2,341 2,580 2,868 Both sexes 3,044 3,453 4,044 4,607 5,096 5,684

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 13.9 11.5 8.5 6.0 4.0 2.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 25.9 19.3 14.7 11.8 9.7 8.2

Lower 95% CI 52.0 49.2 46.2 37.0 32.8 27.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 71.5 65.0 59.3 54.6 50.5 47.0 41.5 91.1 79.3 73.8 69.5 69.4 70.3

Point estimate 19.9 15.1 11.4 8.8 6.8 5.3 8.0

Lower 95% CI 32.6 29.8 26.9 21.2 18.2 15.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.2 39.3 34.8 31.3 28.4 26.0 24.4 57.9 48.4 43.6 40.2 39.2 39.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,376,900 1,358,200 1,408,800 1,443,400 1,446,000 1,475,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 10.9 8.8 6.5 4.8 3.2 2.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 26.3 25.2 22.2 19.5 15.4 11.9

Lower 95% CI 42.2 42.6 38.5 34.7 27.9 21.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 62.0 56.1 51.0 47.1 43.8 40.6 35.7 79.8 71.8 66.2 62.2 61.3 59.2

Point estimate 15.8 11.9 9.1 7.0 5.4 4.2 6.4

Upper 95% CI 21.1 15.2 11.8 9.3 7.8 6.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 38.5 33.4 29.6 26.7 24.4 22.2 20.7 49.9 42.7 38.4 35.3 34.2 32.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,171,400 1,152,200 1,197,000 1,231,300 1,241,300 1,264,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Lao People's Democratic Republic Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 63.8 71.7 80.0 82.0 79.4 Women 17.2 19.7 23.0 23.2 21.6 Total 40.7 45.4 50.7 50.8 46.2 Men 52.8 59.4 66.8 68.5 66.4

Page 2 2010 Women 9.9 11.3 13.2 13.3 12.4 Total 31.6 34.9 38.8 39.2 35.8 Men 41.0 46.5 52.0 53.3 51.7

2025 Women 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.0 5.6 Total 23.1 26.0 28.4 28.0 25.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012-13 2013 2003 Age (years) 15+ 18-64 18+ Smokeless use Men 1.1 ... ... Women 8.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.0 65.0 65.8 Women 8.4 11.5 15.4 Daily use Men Women 41.0 59.1 59.0 8.1 8.9 13.2

Survey name National Adult Tobacco Survey Laos STEPS World Health Survey, Lao People's Democratic Republic

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Vientiane Capital) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Vientiane Municipality) 2011 2007 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 18.7 7.8 14.9 Girls 6.0 3.9 2.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 35% of Lao People's Democratic Republic's population smoked (approximately 1,408,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 26% of the population (approximately 1,475,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 59% of men and about 11% of women smoked in Lao People's Democratic Republic. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 47% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Lao People's Democratic Republic adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Lao People's Democratic Republic will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Latvia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 875 853 804 769 737 714 Women 1,074 1,046 991 948 907 874 Both sexes 1,948 1,899 1,795 1,716 1,644 1,588

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 17.9 18.1 16.9 15.4 14.0 13.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 26.4 26.1 25.3 25.7 27.0 28.3

Lower 95% CI 45.3 43.5 41.0 36.3 32.1 26.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 56.9 53.4 51.0 48.5 46.1 43.8 35.7 67.2 63.0 61.4 61.1 61.4 61.1

Point estimate 22.2 21.7 21.1 20.7 20.4 20.0 14.8

Lower 95% CI 30.2 29.5 27.7 24.8 22.1 19.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.8 35.9 34.5 33.1 31.9 30.7 24.1 44.7 42.7 41.5 41.6 42.4 43.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 736,000 682,300 619,000 568,900 524,800 487,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 12.9 13.5 12.7 12.3 10.7 9.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 25.3 25.0 23.3 21.2 18.7 16.7

Lower 95% CI 40.6 39.2 36.3 32.2 28.5 25.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 50.9 47.9 45.2 43.2 41.2 39.0 31.6 61.9 56.3 54.0 53.4 53.6 54.7

Point estimate 16.6 16.4 15.9 15.5 15.2 15.0 11.1

Upper 95% CI 20.1 19.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.0 30.5 29.0 27.9 26.9 25.8 20.3 38.9 36.0 34.7 34.8 35.2 36.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 623,400 579,900 520,800 478,900 441,500 409,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Latvia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 51.1 64.0 64.1 50.0 38.8 Women 29.9 30.7 23.8 14.2 11.1 Total 40.7 47.2 42.7 29.1 19.0 Men 46.5 57.7 57.5 45.3 34.8

Page 2 2010 Women 29.2 30.0 22.9 13.9 10.8 Total 38.0 43.9 39.3 26.9 18.0 Men 39.7 50.3 49.7 38.8 29.7

2025 Women 28.7 29.5 22.7 13.6 10.6 Total 34.3 40.0 35.9 24.4 16.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 Age (years) 15-64 15-64 15-64 15-64 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... 5.8 ... 0.9 ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking 0.9 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 0.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... 53.7 48.9 50.6 53.0 Women ... 25.3 20.4 23.7 23.7 Daily use Men Women 52.0 47.4 45.0 46.6 47.3 17.6 20.7 15.6 18.2 17.8

Survey name Health behaviour among Latvian adult population Health behaviour among Latvian adult population Health behaviour among Latvian adult population Health behaviour among Latvian adult population Health behaviour among Latvian adult population

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.1 ... ... Girls 3.4 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 39.4 32.0 41.8 Girls 41.4 22.1 33.9 Daily use Boys ... 23.0 ... Girls ... 14.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 34% of Latvia's population smoked (approximately 619,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 31% of the population (approximately 487,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 51% of men and about 21% of women smoked in Latvia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 44% for men and 20% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Latvia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Latvia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Lebanon Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,129 1,476 1,703 2,068 2,001 2,066 Women 1,180 1,398 1,609 2,003 1,957 2,035 Both sexes 2,309 2,874 3,312 4,071 3,958 4,102

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 15.5 19.4 20.8 21.3 20.5 20.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 33.3 32.9 34.8 39.3 49.1 61.4

Lower 95% CI 23.9 28.4 31.4 32.0 33.3 30.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.4 37.9 41.6 45.4 51.2 57.1 29.1 47.8 47.7 50.3 59.4 76.0 86.9

Point estimate 23.7 25.4 27.5 30.2 34.2 38.8 19.3

Lower 95% CI 19.6 24.0 26.2 26.7 27.0 25.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.9 31.8 34.7 37.9 42.8 48.0 24.3 40.4 40.5 42.8 49.5 62.7 74.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 668,000 914,600 1,150,900 1,543,700 1,693,700 1,969,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 8.0 10.3 10.7 10.8 11.3 10.7

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 12.4 15.6 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0

Lower 95% CI 17.1 20.7 21.9 22.4 22.2 23.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.1 30.9 34.2 37.4 41.9 46.9 23.9 40.6 43.6 46.2 51.9 62.8 78.6

Point estimate 16.7 17.9 19.5 21.3 24.2 27.4 13.7

Upper 95% CI 25.8 27.9 29.7 32.1 38.3 46.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.3 24.6 27.1 29.5 33.1 37.2 18.9 33.0 36.0 38.2 42.2 50.7 62.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 514,300 706,400 896,100 1,200,000 1,312,000 1,526,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Lebanon Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 27.6 33.0 41.2 41.3 37.2 Women 17.8 22.0 28.4 30.1 28.2 Total 22.8 27.3 34.4 35.5 32.5 Men 32.5 38.9 48.7 48.6 43.7

Page 2 2010 Women 20.7 25.2 33.3 35.0 32.7 Total 26.3 32.1 42.3 42.1 37.9 Men 43.5 52.4 64.3 64.3 57.6

2025 Women 27.7 34.4 44.1 46.5 43.2 Total 35.6 43.0 54.2 56.7 50.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2010 Age (years) 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.0 43.2 46.8 32.6 60.7 Women 34.0 33.8 31.5 18.9 46.9 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Lebanese National Tobacco Control Program survey Lebanese National Tobacco Control Program survey Lebanon Family Health Survey Prevalence of tobacco use among Lebanese adult population

Chronic Diseases Risk Factor Surveillance: WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance 2008-09 25-64 2004 1997 15+ 19+

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.7 65.8 Girls 6.0 54.1 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 35% of Lebanon's population smoked (approximately 1,150,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 48% of the population (approximately 1,969,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 42% of men and about 28% of women smoked in Lebanon. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 57% for men and 39% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Lebanon adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Lebanon will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Lesotho Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 512 553 605 669 720 770 Women 579 608 647 696 733 770 Both sexes 1,091 1,162 1,253 1,365 1,453 1,539

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

Lower 95% CI 22.8 28.7 34.2 38.1 39.3 46.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.4 39.7 46.2 54.2 63.7 73.3 32.3 50.0 52.7 60.0 72.2 90.5 100.0

Point estimate 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Lower 95% CI 10.8 13.8 16.6 18.8 19.6 23.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.5 19.2 22.6 26.8 31.8 36.9 15.8 24.0 25.5 29.4 35.7 45.2 50.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 179,700 222,700 283,000 365,200 461,600 567,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 6.9 9.0 10.3 12.2 14.1 15.6

Lower 95% CI 14.5 18.7 21.2 24.9 28.4 31.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.8 31.0 36.0 42.3 50.0 58.4 25.2 39.3 43.9 50.3 60.0 76.1 95.5

Point estimate 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

Upper 95% CI 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.8 15.0 17.6 20.9 24.9 29.4 12.3 18.8 21.2 24.6 29.6 38.0 48.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 139,600 173,900 219,900 284,900 362,200 452,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Lesotho Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 31.6 36.4 36.4 35.3 35.7 Women 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Total 16.4 17.7 15.5 15.1 14.6 Men 42.4 48.9 48.9 47.3 48.0

Page 2 2010 Women 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total 21.8 25.6 20.6 19.6 18.4 Men 67.3 76.4 76.4 73.6 73.0

2025 Women 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total 34.1 39.6 40.8 29.3 26.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2009 2004 Age (years) 25-64 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men 3.8 ... 1.1 Women 17.1 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking 14.3 Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 48.7 34.1 15.0 Women 0.7 0.2 0.2 Daily use Men Women 40.6 30.6 14.3 0.5 ... ...

Survey name Lesotho STEPS Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 14.7 ... Girls 13.6 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 26.4 22.4 Girls 21.7 17.7 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of Lesotho's population smoked (approximately 283,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 37% of the population (approximately 567,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 46% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Lesotho. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 73% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Lesotho adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Lesotho will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Liberia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 813 920 1,116 1,298 1,515 1,757 Women 829 933 1,126 1,301 1,509 1,742 Both sexes 1,642 1,853 2,242 2,598 3,024 3,499

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.9 5.7 4.5 4.0 3.4 3.3

Lower 95% CI 7.5 9.4 11.8 14.1 14.0 14.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.9 20.5 23.4 27.0 31.3 36.4 16.4 30.8 33.6 37.3 44.5 52.8 67.1

Point estimate 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.0

Lower 95% CI 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.6 7.4 7.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.9 11.9 13.1 14.7 16.7 19.1 9.1 18.7 19.6 20.8 24.2 28.1 35.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 178,600 220,300 292,800 381,600 504,300 669,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.3 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.4

Lower 95% CI 5.5 7.2 7.9 9.6 10.2 10.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.3 16.2 18.5 21.4 24.7 28.9 13.0 25.0 28.0 30.9 37.0 43.5 55.7

Point estimate 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.4

Upper 95% CI 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.5 9.2 10.2 11.5 13.1 15.1 7.2 15.1 16.0 17.1 19.9 23.1 29.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 140,200 171,400 229,100 299,800 395,300 528,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Liberia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 16.8 17.9 19.2 19.6 19.8 Women 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 Total 10.4 10.9 11.5 11.6 11.5 Men 21.9 23.3 25.0 25.5 25.9

Page 2 2010 Women 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 Total 12.4 13.1 13.8 13.7 13.5 Men 34.0 36.2 39.0 39.7 40.1

2025 Women 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 Total 18.1 19.2 20.4 19.9 18.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2006-07 Age (years) 25-64 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... 4.0 Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 17.2 15.2 Women 2.8 1.0 Daily use Men Women 13.9 ... 1.3 ...

Survey name Liberia STEPS Liberia Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Monrovia) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 9.0 Girls 6.6 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.2 Girls 11.8 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 13% of Liberia's population smoked (approximately 292,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 669,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Liberia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 36% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Liberia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Liberia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Libya Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,806 1,998 2,163 2,178 2,402 2,640 Women 1,648 1,883 2,099 2,284 2,507 2,747 Both sexes 3,453 3,881 4,262 4,462 4,909 5,387

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Libya Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009 Age (years) 25-64 Smokeless use Men 2.2 Women 0.1 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 49.6 Women 0.8 Daily use Men Women 47.6 0.1

Survey name Libya STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2007 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.0 ... ... Girls 2.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.0 10.1 15.5 Girls 5.0 2.1 6.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Libya.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2009, shows that around 50% of men and around 1% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Libya. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Libya adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Lithuania Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,281 1,246 1,177 1,143 1,102 1,073 Women 1,520 1,490 1,424 1,393 1,349 1,317 Both sexes 2,801 2,737 2,601 2,536 2,451 2,390

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 14.5 14.7 14.9 13.1 12.2 10.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 22.6 22.3 23.5 24.2 26.8 29.2

Lower 95% CI 42.5 37.4 32.9 28.3 22.5 18.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 52.6 46.8 41.9 37.5 33.5 30.1 29.3 64.7 55.2 50.9 48.1 44.6 43.3

Point estimate 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.2 13.3

Lower 95% CI 27.3 25.0 23.0 20.0 16.8 14.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.1 31.6 29.4 27.3 25.5 24.1 20.6 41.8 37.3 35.9 35.0 34.8 35.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 956,400 863,500 763,700 693,300 625,400 575,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 9.7 10.3 10.0 8.8 8.3 7.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 21.8 20.6 18.6 15.2 13.1 10.7

Lower 95% CI 36.2 32.9 29.0 23.1 19.0 15.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.0 40.4 36.1 32.1 28.8 25.7 25.3 55.1 48.3 45.1 40.6 38.0 36.8

Point estimate 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 9.0

Upper 95% CI 15.4 15.4 16.2 16.6 17.9 19.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.4 25.4 23.3 21.5 20.0 18.7 16.3 33.6 30.4 29.3 27.4 26.9 27.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 767,900 694,300 607,100 545,200 491,300 447,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Lithuania Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 56.6 58.8 53.9 41.5 40.0 Women 28.1 26.8 17.4 9.3 8.6 Total 42.6 42.7 34.6 22.8 18.6 Men 45.1 46.9 42.7 33.2 31.9

Page 2 2010 Women 29.3 28.1 17.8 9.8 9.0 Total 37.4 37.4 29.6 19.6 15.7 Men 33.0 34.3 31.3 24.2 23.3

2025 Women 31.8 30.1 19.4 10.5 9.8 Total 32.4 32.2 25.1 16.4 13.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2008 2006 2004 Age (years) 20-64 20-64 20-64 20-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.0 40.5 48.4 45.8 ... Women 20.8 18.4 20.1 20.3 ... Daily use Men Women 34.2 38.5 43.4 39.0 42.7 14.4 13.9 14.5 14.0 10.3

Survey name Health Behaviour among Lithuanian Adult Population Health Behaviour among Lithuanian Adult Population Health Behaviour among Lithuanian Adult Population Health Behaviour among Lithuanian Adult Population

The prevalence of overweight and obesity in relation to social and1994-02 behavioural factors health behaviour monitoring) 20-64 (Lithuanian .. . . . . Tobacco smoking

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 2005 Age (years) 15-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 34.4 38.4 36.8 Girls 21.4 28.8 28.1 Daily use Boys 26.0 ... ... Girls 13.0 ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of Lithuania's population smoked (approximately 763,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 575,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 42% of men and about 19% of women smoked in Lithuania. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 30% for men and 19% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Lithuania adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Lithuania will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Luxembourg Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 172 182 206 222 237 249 Women 181 191 212 227 240 253 Both sexes 353 373 418 449 477 502

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 18.7 17.8 16.2 14.0 12.0 9.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 30.7 28.1 26.7 26.4 28.1 27.8

Lower 95% CI 26.4 24.0 21.8 18.4 15.3 12.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.8 30.4 27.7 25.0 22.9 20.9 19.4 42.8 37.0 34.5 33.7 32.5 30.8

Point estimate 24.5 22.9 21.6 20.3 19.2 18.1 15.1

Lower 95% CI 22.5 20.8 19.0 16.2 13.6 10.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.0 26.6 24.6 22.6 21.0 19.5 17.2 36.6 32.4 30.5 30.0 30.3 29.3

Estimated no. of current smokers 102,600 99,000 102,900 101,600 100,400 97,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 12.4 11.6 10.3 9.2 8.3 7.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 14.0 13.2 11.4 10.1 8.9 7.2

Lower 95% CI 15.7 14.8 12.6 11.0 9.5 7.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.6 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.3 15.8 14.7 36.1 32.2 30.0 27.7 26.9 25.4

Point estimate 19.4 18.1 17.0 16.1 15.2 14.4 11.9

Upper 95% CI 27.3 25.2 23.6 23.4 24.3 24.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.4 20.5 19.0 17.5 16.2 15.1 13.3 31.6 28.6 26.8 25.5 25.6 25.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 79,300 76,400 79,400 78,800 77,500 75,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Luxembourg Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 36.4 38.8 34.0 27.5 23.6 Women 28.5 28.7 25.6 20.4 15.9 Total 32.5 33.8 29.9 23.9 18.7 Men 30.2 32.2 28.1 22.9 19.4

Page 2 2010 Women 25.1 25.3 22.5 18.2 13.9 Total 27.7 28.7 25.4 20.5 16.1 Men 23.2 24.7 21.5 17.5 14.9

2025 Women 21.4 21.6 19.2 15.4 11.9 Total 22.3 23.2 20.3 16.5 13.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2011 2009 2008 2007 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.0 24.0 28.0 29.0 28.0 Women 21.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 22.0 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Les habitudes tabagiques au Luxembourg Les habitudes tabagiques au Luxembourg Les habitudes tabagiques au Luxembourg Les habitudes tabagiques au Luxembourg Les habitudes tabagiques au Luxembourg

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Opinions et comportements des jeunes face au tabagisme 2010 2010 Age (years) 15-15 11-18 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.8 8.0 Girls 18.6 10.0 Daily use Boys 17.0 ... Girls 14.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of Luxembourg's population smoked (approximately 102,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 97,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of men and about 22% of women smoked in Luxembourg. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 21% for men and 18% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Luxembourg adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Luxembourg will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Madagascar Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,253 5,000 5,904 6,989 8,196 9,525 Women 4,328 5,093 6,025 7,138 8,366 9,714 Both sexes 8,581 10,093 11,929 14,127 16,562 19,238

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Madagascar Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008-09 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men 24.6 Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 28.5 Women 1.5 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Madagascar Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.2 Girls 5.4 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 33.2 Girls 14.3 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Madagascar.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2008-09, shows that around 29% of men and around 2% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Madagascar. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Madagascar adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Malawi Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,009 3,437 4,038 4,765 5,598 6,622 Women 3,126 3,527 4,098 4,788 5,577 6,551 Both sexes 6,135 6,964 8,136 9,553 11,176 13,173

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 5.0 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 11.7 9.7 8.3 7.6 7.3 6.4

Lower 95% CI 22.0 20.5 18.3 15.7 13.5 12.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.5 25.8 23.5 21.6 20.1 18.7 16.5 36.3 31.6 29.1 27.6 27.2 27.4

Point estimate 8.2 6.9 5.8 5.0 4.3 3.7 4.1

Lower 95% CI 13.3 12.2 10.8 9.2 7.9 6.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.2 16.2 14.6 13.3 12.2 11.2 10.2 23.8 20.5 18.6 17.6 17.3 17.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,113,900 1,130,100 1,186,500 1,268,600 1,365,100 1,480,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 9.3 8.7 7.4 6.7 5.6 4.8

Lower 95% CI 16.1 15.2 13.0 12.0 10.1 8.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.7 19.9 17.9 16.7 15.5 14.3 12.5 28.4 25.9 23.0 22.2 21.2 21.0

Point estimate 4.9 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.5

Upper 95% CI 7.3 6.3 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.1 11.9 10.6 9.8 9.1 8.3 7.5 17.6 16.0 14.0 13.4 12.8 12.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 806,100 832,100 866,200 939,300 1,012,800 1,091,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Malawi Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 17.3 28.4 40.7 45.0 45.0 Women 5.2 6.4 10.7 16.2 19.7 Total 11.3 17.2 25.0 30.3 31.2 Men 14.5 23.9 34.1 37.8 37.8

Page 2 2010 Women 3.7 4.6 7.7 11.7 14.1 Total 9.1 14.5 20.4 23.7 24.9 Men 11.4 18.9 26.8 29.8 29.8

2025 Women 2.4 3.0 4.9 7.6 9.1 Total 7.0 11.1 16.3 18.0 17.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking 5.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 17.6 25.9 ... 25.5 18.7 Women 0.4 2.9 0.3 6.1 1.0 Daily use Men Women 16.8 22.8 ... 20.6 17.9 0.1 2.4 ... 5.1 ...

Survey name Malawi Demographic and Health Survey Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Malawi Malawi Demographic and Health Survey

Malawi National STEPS Survey for Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases Risk Factors1.9 2009 and their 25-64 2004 2003 2000 15-49 18+ 15-49 ... ... ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2009 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 11.2 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 7.4 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 9.2 16.7 19.1 Girls 5.0 11.4 17.9 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of Malawi's population smoked (approximately 1,186,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 1,480,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of men and about 6% of women smoked in Malawi. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 19% for men and 4% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Malawi adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Malawi will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Malaysia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 7,908 8,914 9,928 11,052 12,007 12,811 Women 7,710 9,114 10,521 11,859 13,033 14,013 Both sexes 15,618 18,028 20,448 22,911 25,040 26,824

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6

Lower 95% CI 41.9 39.1 35.9 27.7 23.3 17.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 56.0 51.0 47.0 43.6 40.5 37.8 32.9 71.4 63.2 62.0 60.5 64.7 66.0

Point estimate 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.2

Lower 95% CI 22.3 20.2 18.0 13.8 11.4 8.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.8 26.3 23.7 21.7 19.9 18.5 16.6 38.1 32.7 31.3 30.2 32.0 32.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 4,659,700 4,746,800 4,844,800 4,972,600 4,993,300 4,954,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 17.9 16.6 14.3 11.2 8.6 6.9

Lower 95% CI 33.9 32.4 28.7 22.7 17.6 14.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.2 42.3 38.9 35.9 33.4 31.1 27.2 59.7 53.2 50.2 51.0 52.5 53.8

Point estimate 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8

Upper 95% CI 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.4 21.7 19.5 17.8 16.4 15.2 13.7 31.7 27.4 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,815,300 3,916,600 3,988,100 4,074,200 4,101,700 4,068,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Malaysia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 59.2 58.6 53.7 47.2 44.8 Women 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.5 5.4 Total 31.2 30.9 29.1 26.4 24.1 Men 50.0 49.5 45.2 39.9 37.9

Page 2 2010 Women 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.0 Total 25.0 24.3 23.0 20.9 21.3 Men 40.8 40.4 37.1 32.6 31.1

2025 Women 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 Total 20.2 19.9 17.9 16.0 14.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2006 2006 2003 1996 Age (years) 15+ 25-64 18+ 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.9 46.5 46.4 52.7 49.7 Women 1.0 3.0 1.6 2.6 3.5 Daily use Men Women 39.9 39.0 ... 43.0 ... 0.7 2.1 ... 1.6 ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) NCD Risk Factors in Malaysia National Health And Morbidity Survey World Health Survey, Malaysia Health and Morbidity Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2009 2003 Age (years) 13-17 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 4.5 ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking 3.2 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.9 35.1 40.0 Girls 2.1 9.4 11.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Malaysia's population smoked (approximately 4,844,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 18% of the population (approximately 4,954,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 47% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Malaysia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 38% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Malaysia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Malaysia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Maldives Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 81 98 114 128 140 153 Women 79 97 114 129 141 155 Both sexes 160 195 228 257 281 308

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Maldives Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009 2001 1997 Age (years) 15-49 16+ 16+ Smokeless use Men 6.0 8.2 13.5 Women 4.2 Cigarette smoking 8.1 Cigarette smoking 13.7 Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... 27.3 37.3 Women 2.3 2.2 4.2 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... 2.1 ... ...

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey Smoking Survey Smoking Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2009 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 9.2 ... ... Girls 2.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.2 17.1 8.5 Girls 6.7 6.0 3.4 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Maldives.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2009, shows that around 2% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Maldives. There were no data for men.

If Maldives adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Mali Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,708 3,170 3,707 4,258 5,023 5,973 Women 2,822 3,244 3,734 4,270 4,993 5,891 Both sexes 5,530 6,414 7,441 8,528 10,017 11,865

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4

Lower 95% CI 15.5 18.9 22.0 26.2 26.5 27.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.3 25.8 31.5 38.3 46.9 57.1 22.1 27.8 32.7 40.4 53.4 69.9 91.1

Point estimate 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3

Lower 95% CI 8.7 10.4 11.8 13.9 13.9 14.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.4 14.5 17.3 20.6 24.9 30.0 12.1 16.7 18.9 22.5 29.0 37.3 48.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 684,100 931,500 1,290,900 1,759,000 2,495,800 3,563,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 6.0 7.8 9.5 10.1 10.9 10.8

Lower 95% CI 11.0 14.3 17.8 19.2 20.9 20.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.1 20.7 25.4 30.8 37.9 46.4 17.8 22.4 27.2 35.3 44.3 58.0 76.0

Point estimate 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7

Upper 95% CI 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.9 11.5 13.9 16.5 20.1 24.4 9.7 13.3 15.6 19.5 23.9 30.8 40.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 544,900 740,600 1,031,100 1,409,700 2,008,700 2,889,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mali Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 21.9 22.5 21.1 17.0 14.8 Women 3.3 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.5 Total 12.8 13.0 12.0 10.5 9.8 Men 32.2 33.1 31.0 25.0 21.6

Page 2 2010 Women 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.7 Total 17.9 18.3 16.8 13.6 12.4 Men 58.3 60.0 56.3 46.0 39.6

2025 Women 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.6 3.8 Total 30.9 31.8 29.8 23.4 19.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2006 2003 Age (years) 15-64 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 24.5 ... 24.1 Women 2.7 0.1 2.3 Daily use Men Women 21.6 ... 18.8 1.7 0.1 1.6

Survey name Enquête STEPS Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Mali

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Bamako) 2008 2001 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 23.1 42.6 Girls 8.8 7.4 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 17% of Mali's population smoked (approximately 1,290,900 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 30% of the population (approximately 3,563,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Mali. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 57% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Mali adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Mali will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Malta Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 159 169 178 184 187 188 Women 164 174 180 186 189 191 Both sexes 323 343 358 370 376 379

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 19.3 17.6 15.4 12.5 9.9 7.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 33.8 27.8 24.9 23.2 23.2 21.8

Lower 95% CI 28.7 27.0 24.4 19.7 14.4 11.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 38.8 34.9 31.6 28.6 26.4 24.4 22.1 49.3 43.2 40.8 37.8 37.4 38.2

Point estimate 25.6 22.5 19.9 17.8 16.0 14.4 13.9

Lower 95% CI 23.9 22.2 19.9 16.1 12.1 9.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.1 28.6 25.7 23.2 21.2 19.4 18.0 41.4 35.4 32.8 30.5 30.3 29.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 103,700 98,200 92,200 85,800 79,500 73,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 13.3 12.9 11.5 9.9 7.7 5.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 17.6 17.2 15.3 13.0 10.5 8.0

Lower 95% CI 22.0 21.6 19.1 16.2 13.3 10.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.9 28.7 26.0 23.5 21.5 19.9 18.2 41.4 35.8 32.4 30.8 31.3 31.3

Point estimate 19.7 17.3 15.4 13.7 12.3 11.1 10.8

Upper 95% CI 25.7 21.3 19.2 18.5 17.7 17.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.7 22.9 20.7 18.6 16.9 15.5 14.5 33.4 28.5 25.8 24.6 24.5 24.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 83,000 78,700 74,100 68,800 63,400 58,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Malta Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 39.8 42.5 40.8 32.8 25.7 Women 31.6 32.1 27.4 16.2 9.9 Total 35.8 37.4 34.2 24.0 16.1 Men 33.3 35.5 34.0 27.7 21.7

Page 2 2010 Women 25.8 26.3 22.2 13.7 8.2 Total 29.6 31.0 28.2 20.6 14.0 Men 26.5 28.3 27.3 21.6 17.0

2025 Women 19.9 20.3 17.4 10.0 6.2 Total 23.3 24.4 22.5 15.8 11.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008 2002 Age (years) 15-98 15-98 Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 30.9 34.6 Women 21.4 20.9 Daily use Men Women 25.4 32.0 15.8 17.8

Survey name The European Health Interview survey (EHIS) The first national health interview survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name ESPAD: Substance Use Among Students in 36 European Countries2011 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2002 Age (years) 15-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 8.6 16.9 Girls 9.0 17.4 Daily use Boys ... 8.6 Girls ... 8.4

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 26% of Malta's population smoked (approximately 92,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 73,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of men and about 20% of women smoked in Malta. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 24% for men and 14% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Malta adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Malta will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Marshall Islands Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 16 16 16 16 17 17 Women 16 16 16 16 17 17 Both sexes 32 32 32 33 34 35

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Marshall Islands Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2002 Age (years) 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 39.5 Women 6.0 Daily use Men Women 34.7 4.2

Survey name NCD Risk Factors STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 29.4 Girls 21.6 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Marshall Islands.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2002, shows that around 40% of men and around 6% of women aged 15-64 smoked in Marshall Islands. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Marshall Islands adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Mauritania Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 767 916 1,073 1,233 1,412 1,610 Women 782 923 1,073 1,229 1,406 1,601 Both sexes 1,549 1,839 2,146 2,462 2,818 3,211

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 4.1 3.4 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 8.5 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.2

Lower 95% CI 18.8 23.8 27.4 30.2 31.5 37.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.9 31.6 38.6 47.3 57.9 68.4 27.0 33.7 39.7 51.3 67.9 88.1 97.8

Point estimate 6.1 5.2 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.2

Lower 95% CI 11.4 13.6 15.2 16.3 16.7 19.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.9 18.4 21.6 25.6 30.7 35.8 15.1 21.0 23.3 28.7 36.9 47.0 51.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 246,400 337,500 462,400 631,000 865,500 1,149,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 9.6 11.6 12.8 13.5 15.0 17.2

Lower 95% CI 16.3 20.7 23.5 25.4 28.7 33.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.6 27.5 33.6 41.1 50.6 61.0 23.5 29.2 33.8 44.0 58.2 80.7 97.6

Point estimate 4.5 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.4

Upper 95% CI 6.2 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.5 15.7 18.5 22.0 26.6 31.7 12.9 17.6 19.4 24.3 31.3 42.4 50.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 208,500 287,900 396,900 542,300 749,800 1,017,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mauritania Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 28.6 28.1 23.1 16.0 12.6 Women 7.0 6.5 5.2 3.9 3.4 Total 17.9 17.4 13.9 9.4 7.4 Men 42.7 42.0 34.4 24.2 18.9

Page 2 2010 Women 5.2 4.9 3.9 2.9 2.5 Total 24.3 23.8 19.2 12.8 9.4 Men 75.5 75.0 63.5 45.8 36.2

2025 Women 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.7 Total 40.0 39.6 33.3 23.3 16.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men 5.7 ... Women 28.3 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 34.1 27.4 Women 5.7 4.2 Daily use Men Women 32.7 23.2 4.8 3.2

Survey name World Health Survey, Mauritania

Enquête sur les Maladies non Transmissibles selon l'approche STEPwise 2006 de l'OMS 15-64 2003 18+

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 22.1 27.5 31.5 Girls 20.5 17.7 29.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 22% of Mauritania's population smoked (approximately 462,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 36% of the population (approximately 1,149,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 39% of men and about 5% of women smoked in Mauritania. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 68% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Mauritania adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Mauritania will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Mauritius Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 433 452 477 498 514 520 Women 447 468 493 519 540 552 Both sexes 880 920 970 1,016 1,054 1,072

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.2 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0

Lower 95% CI 37.7 35.8 32.9 28.7 24.4 20.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.4 44.5 42.1 39.9 38.2 36.4 29.5 59.4 53.3 52.6 53.0 55.4 58.9

Point estimate 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.5

Lower 95% CI 20.4 19.3 17.6 15.1 12.8 10.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.8 24.0 22.5 21.2 20.1 18.9 15.8 32.4 28.8 28.2 28.2 29.2 30.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 226,800 220,900 218,600 215,200 211,500 203,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 13.4 12.9 11.9 10.4 8.3 6.9

Lower 95% CI 25.7 24.8 23.1 20.2 16.4 13.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.7 33.7 31.8 30.2 28.9 27.6 22.3 45.5 42.9 41.2 41.0 41.9 43.2

Point estimate 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2

Upper 95% CI 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.7 17.5 16.5 15.6 14.8 13.9 11.6 23.9 22.4 21.4 21.1 21.4 21.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 164,500 161,300 160,100 158,100 155,600 149,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mauritius Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 51.1 48.9 46.5 41.2 35.4 Women 5.6 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.6 Total 28.4 27.1 25.5 21.2 16.5 Men 46.0 44.1 41.8 37.3 31.7

Page 2 2010 Women 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.8 Total 25.3 24.1 22.7 19.3 14.4 Men 40.7 39.0 36.9 32.7 28.2

2025 Women 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 Total 22.0 20.9 19.5 16.7 12.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009 2004 2003 1998 1992 Age (years) 19-75 20-74 18+ 25-74 25-74 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 40.3 35.9 42.4 ... 47.2 Women 3.7 5.1 2.9 ... 3.7 Daily use Men Women ... ... 32.2 42.2 ... ... ... 1.1 3.3 ...

Survey name Mauritius Non Communicable Disease Survey Mauritius non-communicable diseases survey World Health Survey, Mauritius Non-Communicable Disease Survey Mauritius Non-communicable Disease Study

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2011 2008 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.5 20.3 24.1 Girls 10.0 7.7 8.9 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of Mauritius's population smoked (approximately 218,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 203,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 42% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Mauritius. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 36% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Mauritius adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Mauritius will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Mexico Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 32,457 35,245 38,907 43,136 47,111 50,860 Women 36,017 39,748 43,560 47,739 51,684 55,340 Both sexes 68,474 74,993 82,468 90,875 98,795 106,200

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 10.7 8.8 6.9 5.2 3.8 2.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 16.2 12.7 10.0 8.3 7.1 5.8

Lower 95% CI 30.3 25.6 21.4 16.4 12.9 10.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.2 30.6 25.4 21.0 17.4 14.5 17.8 44.8 36.2 30.2 25.3 22.1 19.9

Point estimate 13.4 10.7 8.4 6.7 5.3 4.2 5.9

Lower 95% CI 20.0 16.7 13.7 10.5 8.1 6.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.7 20.1 16.4 13.5 11.1 9.1 11.5 29.8 23.7 19.5 16.4 14.3 12.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 16,900,400 15,037,900 13,541,500 12,257,200 10,936,600 9,699,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 5.7 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.1 1.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 11.0 9.4 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.4

Lower 95% CI 16.9 14.6 12.1 9.6 7.5 5.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.7 17.8 14.8 12.2 10.1 8.4 10.4 26.3 21.3 17.9 15.0 13.3 11.4

Point estimate 7.4 5.9 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.3 3.3

Upper 95% CI 9.5 7.2 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.2 11.5 9.5 7.7 6.3 5.2 6.6 17.5 13.8 11.5 9.6 8.4 7.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 9,708,500 8,618,700 7,805,600 7,029,000 6,257,100 5,545,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mexico Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 36.8 40.0 38.2 33.1 24.0 Women 12.6 14.5 15.4 11.0 7.7 Total 24.7 26.3 26.1 21.3 14.7 Men 25.2 27.4 26.1 22.7 16.4

Page 2 2010 Women 7.9 9.2 9.7 6.9 4.8 Total 16.5 17.9 17.1 14.2 9.8 Men 14.6 15.8 15.1 13.1 9.5

2025 Women 4.0 4.7 4.9 3.5 2.5 Total 9.4 10.2 9.8 7.8 5.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2011 2007-09 2008 2006 Age (years) 20+ 18-65 15+ 12-65 20+ Smokeless use Men ... ... 0.3 ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 0.3 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 31.0 34.6 24.8 27.8 30.4 Women 9.9 13.5 7.8 9.9 9.5 Daily use Men Women ... 15.5 11.8 ... 21.6 ... 5.5 3.7 ... 6.5

Survey name Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición Encuesta nacional de adicciones Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Mexico Encuesta nacional de adicciones Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Mexico City) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Mexico City) 2011 2006 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.9 ... ... Girls 3.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.6 27.8 29.4 Girls 17.7 28.5 24.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 16% of Mexico's population smoked (approximately 13,541,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 9% of the population (approximately 9,699,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of men and about 8% of women smoked in Mexico. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 15% for men and 4% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Mexico adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Mexico will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Micronesia (Federated States of) Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 32 33 33 35 38 41 Women 32 32 32 34 37 39 Both sexes 64 65 65 69 75 79

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No No data data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No No data data

60 40

No Nodata data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Micronesia (Federated States of) Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2006 2002 Age (years) 25-64 25-64 Smokeless use Men 31.8 22.4 Women 13.3 Tobacco smoking 3.0 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 51.0 42.0 Women 14.0 21.0 Daily use Men Women 47.0 34.8 10.6 16.1

Survey name NCD Risk Factors STEPS survey (Chuuk only) NCD Risk Factors STEPS survey (Pohnpei only)

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Pohnpei) 2013 2007 2000 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 26.4 ... ... Girls 21.7 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 52.1 51.9 47.1 Girls 35.7 39.8 38.9 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Micronesia (Federated States of).

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2006, shows that around 51% of men and around 14% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Micronesia (Federated States of). Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Micronesia (Federated States of) adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Monaco Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 14 14 16 16 17 18 Women 14 14 16 16 17 18 Both sexes 27 29 31 32 34 35

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Monaco Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name ESPAD: Substance Use Among Students in 36 European Countries2011 Age (years) 15-16 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 29.0 Girls 47.0 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

#N/A X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X

#N/A X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Monaco.

If Monaco adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Mongolia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 776 888 977 1,038 1,089 1,164 Women 788 907 1,005 1,076 1,138 1,225 Both sexes 1,564 1,796 1,982 2,114 2,227 2,389

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 5.4 5.4 4.8 3.7 3.0 2.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 11.1 9.0 7.3 6.5 6.4 6.0

Lower 95% CI 38.4 40.8 39.4 36.2 31.5 26.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 55.0 52.0 49.4 47.7 46.1 44.1 34.6 71.2 64.0 58.2 59.2 61.5 64.3

Point estimate 8.4 7.0 6.0 5.2 4.5 3.8 4.2

Lower 95% CI 21.8 22.9 21.9 19.7 16.9 13.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.5 29.3 27.4 26.1 24.8 23.4 19.2 40.9 36.2 32.4 32.4 33.3 34.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 493,000 525,400 542,800 551,000 553,200 559,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.0 2.3 1.7

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 18.2 19.0 17.4 16.6 13.7 11.6

Lower 95% CI 32.3 34.2 31.6 30.7 25.7 22.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.1 44.3 42.4 40.7 39.4 37.7 29.7 63.0 55.5 51.4 51.4 53.3 56.2

Point estimate 6.6 5.5 4.7 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.3

Upper 95% CI 9.4 7.2 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.7 24.7 23.3 22.1 21.1 19.9 16.3 36.0 31.1 28.3 27.9 28.6 29.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 417,500 443,400 461,300 466,500 468,900 475,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mongolia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 43.4 59.4 65.6 58.6 54.9 Women 5.9 8.5 10.3 11.0 11.5 Total 24.9 33.9 37.4 34.0 29.9 Men 38.6 52.5 57.9 51.9 48.5

Page 2 2010 Women 4.2 6.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 Total 21.5 29.4 31.7 28.3 24.5 Men 33.0 46.2 50.0 44.8 42.0

2025 Women 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.9 Total 18.0 25.1 26.8 22.6 19.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2009 Age (years) 15-64 15-64 Smokeless use Men 0.8 2.8 ... ... Women 0.2 Tobacco smoking 0.5 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 49.1 48.0 48.4 52.4 Women 5.3 6.9 5.5 7.5 Daily use Men Women 45.4 43.0 43.1 ... 4.5 5.2 4.1 ...

Survey name Mongolia STEPS survey on the Prevalence of NCD risk factors Mongolia STEPS Survey

Mongolia STEPS survey on the prevalence of noncommunicable disease risk factors 2005-06 15-64 Glucose intolerance and associated factors in Mongolia: results of a1999 national survey 35+

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-based Student Survey (GSHS) Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2014 2013 2010 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 13.6 ... ... Girls 5.7 Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.3 8.3 10.2 Girls 8.3 3.5 2.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of Mongolia's population smoked (approximately 542,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 559,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 49% of men and about 6% of women smoked in Mongolia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 44% for men and 4% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Mongolia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Mongolia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Mongolia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 776 888 977 1,038 1,089 1,164 Women 788 907 1,005 1,076 1,138 1,225 Both sexes 1,564 1,796 1,982 2,114 2,227 2,389

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 8.4 7.0 6.0 5.2 4.5 3.8 4.2 11.1 9.0 7.3 6.5 6.4 6.0 21.8 22.9 21.9 19.7 16.9 13.9

Both sexes Point Upper 95% estimate CI 31.5 29.3 27.4 26.1 24.8 23.4 19.2 Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80 40.9 36.2 32.4 32.4 33.3 34.4 Estimated no. of current smokers 493,000 525,400 542,800 551,000 553,200 559,800

Lower 95% CI 38.4 40.8 39.4 36.2 31.5 26.1

Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 55.0 52.0 49.4 47.7 46.1 44.1 34.6 71.2 64.0 58.2 59.2 61.5 64.3 5.4 5.4 4.8 3.7 3.0 2.3

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 6.6 5.5 4.7 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.3 9.4 7.2 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.7 18.2 19.0 17.4 16.6 13.7 11.6

Both sexes Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.7 24.7 23.3 22.1 21.1 19.9 16.3 36.0 31.1 28.3 27.9 28.6 29.8 Estimated no. of daily smokers 417,500 443,400 461,300 466,500 468,900 475,500

Lower 95% CI 32.3 34.2 31.6 30.7 25.7 22.0

Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 47.1 44.3 42.4 40.7 39.4 37.7 29.7 63.0 55.5 51.4 51.4 53.3 56.2 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.0 2.3 1.7

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mongolia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 43.4 59.4 65.6 58.6 54.9 Women 5.9 8.5 10.3 11.0 11.5 Total 24.9 33.9 37.4 34.0 29.9 Men 38.6 52.5 57.9 51.9 48.5

Page 2 2010 Women 4.2 6.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 Total 21.5 29.4 31.7 28.3 24.5 Men 33.0 46.2 50.0 44.8 42.0

2025 Women 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.9 Total 18.0 25.1 26.8 22.6 19.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2009 Age (years) 15-64 15-64 Smokeless use Men 0.8 2.8 ... ... Women 0.2 Tobacco smoking 0.5 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 49.1 48.0 48.4 52.4 Women 5.3 6.9 5.5 7.5 Daily use Men Women 45.4 43.0 43.1 ... 4.5 5.2 4.1 ...

Survey name Mongolia STEPS survey on the Prevalence of NCD risk factors Mongolia STEPS Survey

Mongolia STEPS survey on the prevalence of noncommunicable disease risk factors 2005-06 15-64 Glucose intolerance and associated factors in Mongolia: results of a1999 national survey 35+

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-based Student Survey (GSHS) Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2014 2013 2010 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 13.6 ... ... Girls 5.7 Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.3 8.3 10.2 Girls 8.3 3.5 2.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, around 27% of Mongolia's population smoked (approximately 542,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, it is projected that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 559,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, around 49% of men smoked and around 6% of women smoked in Mongolia. By 2025, the rates are projected to be around 44% of men and around 4% of women smoking. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. If Mongolia adopts the global voluntary target to reduce deaths due to noncommunicable diseases by achieving a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, the results indicate that Mongolia will not achieve this target based on current trends.

Mongolia Table 8. Fitted trends in current cigarette smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT CIGARETTE SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower 95% CI 26.7 26.5 25.6 24.3 20.5 17.9 24.4 25.5 25.5 25.8 Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 44.4 41.8 40.1 38.5 37.3 35.5 39.8 39.5 39.2 38.9 63.2 56.4 53.1 52.4 53.3 55.5 52.7 52.7 53.7 54.0 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.5 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.6

Page 3

Women Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 6.7 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.1 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 10.1 7.6 6.5 5.8 5.4 4.9 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.9 15.2 14.7 14.0 13.1 11.0 9.5 13.5 13.9 13.8 14.0

Both sexes Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.4 23.5 22.2 21.0 20.1 18.9 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.3 36.4 31.7 29.5 28.7 28.8 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.4 29.5 Estimated no. of current smokers 397,400 421,800 439,300 444,400 446,900 451,200 440,600 442,500 444,000 444,400

Table 9. Fitted trends in daily cigarette smoking among persons aged 15 years and over DAILY CIGARETTE SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower 95% CI 30.0 30.4 29.6 27.8 24.3 20.2 29.5 28.4 28.1 27.5 Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 41.5 39.0 37.3 36.0 34.9 33.3 37.2 36.8 36.6 36.2 54.8 48.0 45.4 45.5 46.9 49.1 45.2 44.8 44.4 45.1 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.1 1.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8

Women Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 6.0 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.2 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 8.3 6.5 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 16.9 16.9 16.3 15.1 13.0 10.6 16.1 15.6 15.4 15.0

Both sexes Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.6 21.8 20.5 19.6 18.7 17.6 20.4 20.1 20.0 19.8 31.4 27.0 25.1 24.8 25.2 26.1 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.6 Estimated no. of current smokers 369,800 391,900 407,000 414,000 416,200 421,000 410,300 410,200 412,900 413,100

Table 10. Age-standardized WHO comparable prevalence estimates for 2013 Age-standardization allows for meaningful comparison of prevalence between countries. The sex- and agespecific prevalence estimates derived for each country are applied to the WHO standard population, a fictitious population whose age distribution is largely reflective of the population age structure of low- and middle- income countries. The age-standardized prevalence rates are hypothetical numbers which are only meaningful when comparing standardized rates from one country with standardized rates from another country. The below agestandardized rates will be published in the upcoming WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2015. AGE-STANDARDIZED PREVALENCE RATES 2013 (%) Women Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 5.6 4.5 4.5 4.1 7.0 5.7 6.2 5.2 20.8 17.4 14.0 15.7

Men Indicator Current tobacco smoking Daily tobacco smoking Current cigarette smoking Daily cigarette smoking Lower 95% CI 38.0 31.9 25.7 28.6

Both sexes Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.8 22.7 21.7 20.2 32.7 28.4 29.7 24.8

Point Upper 95% Lower 95% estimate CI CI 48.7 41.6 39.5 36.9 59.2 51.9 54.0 45.1 4.2 3.3 2.6 3.2

Mongolia CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower Point 95% CI estimate 39.0 38.1 37.7 37.3 49.0 48.7 48.4 48.0 Upper 95% CI 58.8 58.9 58.6 58.7

Page 4

Table 11. Fitted trends data for years 2011 to 2014 - current tobacco smoking among persons 15 years and over Women Lower Point 95% CI estimate 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 Upper 95% CI 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.6

Both sexes Lower Point 95% CI estimate 21.5 21.0 20.7 20.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 Upper 95% CI 32.5 32.6 32.4 32.2 Estimated no. of current smokers 543,200 546,300 548,100 549,500

Table 12. Fitted trends data for years 2011 to 2014 - daily tobacco smoking among persons 15 years and over DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower Point 95% CI estimate 32.0 32.2 31.9 30.3 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.0 Upper 95% CI 51.5 51.7 51.4 50.7

Women Lower Point 95% CI estimate 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 Upper 95% CI 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.3

Both sexes Lower Point 95% CI estimate 17.5 17.5 17.3 16.4 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.3 Upper 95% CI 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.6 Estimated no. of current smokers 462,000 462,600 464,000 465,900

Table 13. Survey data from 1990 to 2014: surveys completed and published by countries before 30 June 2014 This is the full set of surveys used to calculate estimates and projections. Year Survey Name Ages (years) #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A Current smoking Male 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Daily smoking Male #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 43.1 #N/A #N/A 43.0 #N/A #N/A #N/A 45.4 #N/A Female #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 4.1 #N/A #N/A 5.2 #N/A #N/A #N/A 4.5 #N/A

Current cigarette smoking Male #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A Female #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Daily cigarette smoking Male #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 42.9 #N/A #N/A #N/A 43.0 #N/A Female #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 5.2 #N/A #N/A #N/A 4.4 #N/A

Female #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 7.5 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 5.5 #N/A #N/A 6.9 #N/A #N/A #N/A 5.3 #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Glucose intolerance and associated factors in Mongolia: results of 35+ a national survey 52.4 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 15-64 #N/A #N/A #N/A 15-64 #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 48.0 #N/A #N/A #N/A 49.1 #N/A

Mongolia STEPS survey on the prevalence of noncommunicable disease 15-64risk factors 48.4 #N/A #N/A Mongolia STEPS Survey #N/A #N/A #N/A Mongolia STEPS survey on the Prevalence of NCD risk factors #N/A

NOTE: Preliminary or unreleased data may appear in this table. If any data in Table 13 should not be published by WHO, it is imperative that you inform us when sending your acknowledgement.

Mongolia Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range survey - daily cigarette smoking survey - current cigarette smoking

Page 5 Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range survey - daily cigarette smoking survey - current cigarette smoking

80 60 40 20 0 2000

survey - daily tobacco smoking survey - current tobacco smoking

80 60 40 20 0 2000

survey - daily tobacco smoking survey - current tobacco smoking

No data No data

No data

No data

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range survey - daily cigarette smoking survey - current cigarette smoking

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range survey - daily cigarette smoking survey - current cigarette smoking

80

survey - daily tobacco smoking survey - current tobacco smoking

80

survey - daily tobacco smoking survey - current tobacco smoking

60 40 20 0 2000

No data No data

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

TOBACCO SMOKING PREVALENCE IN WHO MEMBER STATES WHO TREND ESTIMATES TECHNICAL NOTE Tobacco smoking prevalence in WHO Member States The ability to monitor changes in prevalence of tobacco use over time will enable WHO Member States to assess progress towards achieving the 2025 global voluntary tobacco use target1 of a 30% reduction in tobacco use (using 2010 level as baseline). To that end, WHO has developed a statistical method that uses population-based survey results from countries to derive underlying trend estimates of tobacco smoking 2 for persons aged 15 years and over. This document provides an explanation of the process used to derive the trends for all countries, as well as an explanation of the results for each country. Method A statistical model based on a negative binomial regression was used to estimate the underlying prevalence trend across surveys available from each country. Depending on the completeness of data from any one country, the model at times makes use of data from other countries to estimate the trends for each country. Countries with less data or broadly inadequate data “borrow information” from neighbouring countries 3 in the calculation of their specific trends. Please note that despite best efforts to generate estimates for countries, there are some countries with insufficient survey data (ie. surveys do not exist, or are too few or too old) to calculate either a prevalence trend over time or a time point estimate. For those countries, their available country-generated survey estimate is shown but without an underlying trend line. Once the prevalence rates from surveys are compiled into a data set, there are two main steps to calculating the trend estimates: (a) adjusting for differences between surveys, and (b) running the regression model to generate both the underlying trend as well as the 95% uncertainty range around that trend estimate. Differences in age groups covered by each survey Survey results for any one country are sometimes reported for a variety of different age groups. The model fills in missing ages in the data by examining the association between age and tobacco use prevalence by sex and survey year. Where data are missing for any age group, the model uses available data from a country's other surveys to estimate the age pattern of tobacco use. For ages that the country has never surveyed, the average age pattern seen in countries in the same geographical region are applied to the country’s data. Differences in the types of indicators of tobacco use measured Similarly, survey results may also be reported over time for different indicators (eg. current smoking in one survey and daily smoking in another or tobacco smoking in one and cigarette smoking in another). The model uses the available data from the country's other surveys to gauge the relationship between indicators of tobacco use by age and sex and over time and derives likely values for the missing indicators. For indicators that the country has never reported, the average relationships seen in countries in the same geographical region are applied to the country’s data.

Fitting the trend line Prevalence data by age and sex are obtained from surveys conducted in different countries in the period 1990 and up to 30 June 2014. The negative binomial modelling exercise attempted to identify the best underlying trend by age, sex and total for each country. For this project, WHO has backtracked the results to 2000 and projected into the future to 2025. The results produced include the fitted trend lines as well as the 95% lower and upper uncertainty bands around the fitted trend line. The projections beyond the year of the most recent survey show what may be expected to happen if a country were to continue undertaking tobacco control with the same historical intensity that it had applied up to its most recent survey. More often than not, the survey data points will not sit directly on the estimated fitted line, and the various reasons for this are listed below: • The trend line gives a truer picture of the underlying tendency of the prevalence estimates collected at various points in time in any one country. • A survey point estimate is just an approximation at one point in time of the true unknown prevalence of smoking in the population; the true prevalence rate lies somewhere within the 95% uncertainty range • A survey point estimate is a weighted average of all ages surveyed; it masks variations in prevalence at different ages which are the starting data points of the modelling exercise • Some survey point estimates come from surveys where the survey population was not 15+, whereas the trend line has been estimated for age 15+ (in line with the NCD Global Voluntary Target for tobacco use) • The trend line is derived from an examination of age-specific data from all surveys together after adjustments have been made for any missing information, and calibrated to ensure that current must be greater or equal to daily smoking products, and that all smoking products must be greater or equal to cigarette smoking . • The charts show the trend for the years 2000 to 2025, while data prior to 2000 (from 1990 onwards) were included in the modelling; pre-2000 data can be found in Table 13.

Data sources National surveys that report tobacco prevalence and were completed in countries from 1990 up to 30 June 2014 were used for the estimation. WHO welcomes the identification of any additional country specific surveys that may have been missed. Additional surveys will be investigated in relation to the inclusion criteria above. Please note that new data will be able to be included only in future updates of the estimates, and not this publication. The following sources of information were explored: • reports submitted to the WHO FCTC Secretariat by Parties to the WHO FCTC;

• information collected through the Global Tobacco Surveillance System – in particular the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS); • tobacco information collected through WHO surveys including the WHO STEPwise surveys and the World Health Survey;

• other systems-based surveys undertaken by other organizations, including surveys such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys; and • extensive search through WHO Regional and WHO Country Offices to identify country-specific surveys that are not part of an international surveillance system. To be included as input for the calculation of the trends, the surveys needed to meet several criteria: • be designed to be nationally representative by using a statistically appropriate random sampling method and an adequate sample size • provide national summary data for at least one of four tobacco smoking definitions: (i) current tobacco smoker (ii) daily tobacco smoker (iii) current cigarette smoker and (iv) daily cigarette smoker • report prevalence rates for at least one of the four indicators by age and sex.

Surveys that were run at a subnational level were generally excluded from the dataset. Exceptions were made where multiple subnational surveys were run to cover the entire country or where the subnational region could be shown to be approximately representative of the entire country. WHO strived to obtain information on as many surveys as possible for the period January 1990 to 30 June 2014. The complete set of surveys for each country used in the construction of the present estimates appears in Table 13 of the attached Country Trend Estimates 2000-2025. PLEASE NOTE: Preliminary or unreleased data may appear in this table. If any data in Table 13 should not be published by WHO, it is imperative that you inform us when sending your acknowledgement.

INSTRUCTIONS FOR READING THE FACTSHEET PROVIDED Please note that the results will be disseminated in various WHO documents and on the web, including in a forthcoming WHO global report on trends in tobacco use, as well as in the 5 th edition of the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic. Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Population data is sourced from World Population Prospects, 2012 Revision published by the United Nations Population Division and available at http://esa.un.org/wpp/ Tables 2, 3 and 4. Fitted trends in smoking among persons aged 15 years and over The estimates presented in these tables are WHO prevalence fitted trends derived using a statistical model. The model compiles all available survey data and calculates the underlying trend in prevalence suggested by these data. The past trend demonstrated by the data is projected into the future up to 2025, to make it easy to compare with the voluntary target under the NCD global monitoring framework. Current tobacco smoking estimates are presented in Table 2 and the accompanying graphs. Daily tobacco smoking estimates are presented in Table 3 and the accompanying graphs. Table 4 and its accompanying graphs are for current smoking broken down into age groups to show the age pattern of current smoking projected over time.

The graphs show the fitted trend line with its uncertainty interval in blue (the prediction range) and the red line shows the rate equivalent to a 30% relative reduction on the 2010 fitted estimate. The grey diamonds on the graphs show the published rate of tobacco smoking where it was available. While the survey data points are not directly comparable with the fitted trend line, they indicate where survey data for each indicator were available. Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey data for one smokeless tobacco indicator and two smoking indicators from the five most recent national surveys among adults are presented in Table 5. The full set of surveys and indicators used for the fitted trend estimates are shown in Table 13. Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey data for one smokeless tobacco indicator and two smoking indicators from the three most recent surveys among adolescents are presented in Table 6. While these data are not used for the fitted trend estimates, they are a pointer to the likely direction of prevalence trends among adults in the near future, given the difficulty of quitting tobacco use once addicted. Table 7. Surveillance planning Based on the most recent surveys completed among adults and youth, the Xs indicate the optimal year for completing future surveys that measure tobacco use, in order to monitor the epidemic and track progress towards meeting the voluntary target to reduce tobacco use. Key messages The key messages are summaries of the key results from the first two pages of the Country Trend Estimates. They focus on the current smoking indicator. The NCD global monitoring framework tobacco use target is for all types of tobacco use together, however globally there is as yet little data on all tobacco use. Future reports will incorporate this indicator as the data becomes available. Tables 8 and 9. Fitted trends in current cigarette smoking among persons aged 15 years and over The estimates presented in these tables are WHO prevalence fitted trends derived using the same statistical model as described above. Instead of the tobacco smoking indicators, cigarette smoking indicators (current and daily) are presented. In some countries, information on cigarettes is more readily available than information on tobacco smoking. In these cases, the fitted estimates of tobacco smoking are heavily informed by data on cigarette use. The fitted trends in cigarette smoking will present a more accurate picture of smoking trends in the country.

Table 10. Age-standardized WHO comparable prevalence estimates for 2013 This table will be published in the upcoming WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2015. For previous reports in this series, the WHO prevalence estimates were always acknowledged by countries along with the other data to be published in that report. We present them here because they are part of the series of Country Trend Estimates 2000-2025. They have been age-standardized in order to be comparable across countries.

To age-standardize the fitted trend estimates for the year 2013, the age-sex-specific prevalence rates estimated for 2013 (according to the fitted trend) for each country are applied to the WHO Standard Population, a fictitious population whose age distribution is largely reflective of the population age structure of low- and middle-income countries. The resulting age-standardized rates refer to the number of smokers per 100 WHO Standard Population. The age-standardized rates are hypothetical numbers which are only meaningful when comparing standardized rates from one country with standardized rates from another country.

Tables 11 and 12. Fitted trends data for years 2011 to 2014 - tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over These tables are related to Tables 2 and 3 above. They show the estimates for individual years in between 2010 and 2015. Table 13. Survey data from 1990 to 2014: surveys completed and published by countries before 30 June 2014 This table shows the full set of surveys and indicators used to fit the underlying trend shown in all preceding graphs and tables. Total age data points are shown. Age-specific data points from these same surveys were used in the model wherever available, however, these are not shown due to lack of space. The detailed data can be requested by countries. PLEASE NOTE: Preliminary or unreleased data may appear in this table. If any data in Table 13 should not be published by WHO, it is imperative that you inform us when sending your acknowledgement. Page 5 graphs. Smoking fitted trends compared with country provided survey data for all tobacco indicators These four graphs provide the same prediction ranges as shown in the earlier graphs on page 1. Superimposed are the survey data points for all four tobacco use indicators (current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking and daily cigarette smoking). The purpose of these charts is to present the full range of infomation from surveys used by the model.

NOTES [1] See http://apps.who.int/gb/NCDs/pdf/A_NCD_2-en.pdf [2] Tobacco smoking includes cigarette, cigar, pipe, hookah, shisha, water-pipe and any other form of smoked tobacco. [3] Geographic regions as defined by UN sub-regions ; please refer to pages ix to xiii of World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs in 2011 at http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2010_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf. Please note that, for the purposes of this analysis, the Eastern Africa subregion was divided into two regions: Eastern Africa Islands and Remainder of Eastern Africa; and the Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia subregions were combined into one subregion.

Montenegro Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 233 239 244 248 249 251 Women 248 253 256 260 261 261 Both sexes 481 492 499 508 510 512

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Montenegro Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2008 Age (years) 20+ 20+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 35.0 36.7 Women 27.0 29.0 Daily use Men Women ... 30.0 ... 23.0

Survey name Living Standards Measurement Survey, LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey, LSMS

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 1.1 ... Girls 0.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 6.6 7.0 Girls 5.9 6.2 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Montenegro.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2012, shows that around 35% of men and around 27% of women aged 20+ smoked in Montenegro. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Montenegro adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Morocco Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 9,252 10,116 10,997 11,959 12,775 13,519 Women 9,682 10,734 11,747 12,514 13,155 13,972 Both sexes 18,934 20,850 22,743 24,473 25,930 27,491

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.4 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.2 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.4

Lower 95% CI 26.1 29.5 31.4 29.0 27.5 30.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.0 37.6 41.7 46.5 52.2 57.6 29.2 42.9 45.7 52.1 63.9 80.7 94.2

Point estimate 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.4

Lower 95% CI 14.0 15.3 15.8 14.5 13.8 15.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.8 19.7 21.2 23.4 26.2 28.7 14.8 24.1 24.2 26.6 32.4 40.7 47.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,552,300 4,114,900 4,820,500 5,736,200 6,800,000 7,884,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 10.7 11.6 11.9 12.2 10.6 11.0

Lower 95% CI 20.8 23.0 24.0 24.6 21.4 22.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.0 30.9 34.4 38.3 42.8 47.9 24.1 36.1 38.4 44.0 55.2 64.8 81.2

Point estimate 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.8

Upper 95% CI 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.9 15.8 17.2 19.1 21.3 23.8 12.0 19.6 19.9 22.2 27.6 32.4 40.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,822,900 3,297,600 3,912,000 4,680,400 5,533,400 6,531,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Morocco Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 31.2 38.2 38.2 24.9 18.2 Women 5.0 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.8 Total 18.2 21.1 20.8 12.7 9.3 Men 38.4 46.8 46.1 31.8 22.0

Page 2 2010 Women 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 Total 20.5 23.4 23.6 15.8 9.9 Men 54.5 65.7 64.5 44.0 31.9

2025 Women 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 Total 28.2 34.1 30.9 21.3 14.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2006 2003-04 2003 2000 Age (years) 15-74 15+ 18+ 20+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 31.5 26.3 31.8 31.5 Women 3.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 Daily use Men Women 30.3 ... 30.3 ... 0.2 ... 0.2 ...

Survey name MARTA Maroc Enquête sur la Population et la Santé Familliale World Health Survey, Morocco Prevalence of the main cardiovascular risk factors in Morocco

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2010 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.3 12.0 12.5 Girls 6.6 4.9 8.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Morocco's population smoked (approximately 4,820,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 29% of the population (approximately 7,884,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 42% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Morocco. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 58% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Morocco adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Morocco will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Mozambique Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,779 5,459 6,233 7,157 8,358 9,724 Women 5,491 6,143 6,867 7,736 8,871 10,183 Both sexes 10,270 11,601 13,100 14,892 17,229 19,907

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 12.5 10.5 10.0 9.4 8.9 8.7

Lower 95% CI 24.7 23.3 22.2 19.1 14.6 11.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 40.6 36.6 33.0 29.8 27.2 25.0 23.1 61.6 51.8 47.3 42.5 39.9 40.1

Point estimate 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.3

Lower 95% CI 13.5 12.7 12.2 10.6 8.2 6.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.8 20.7 18.9 17.3 15.9 14.7 13.2 35.3 29.9 27.7 25.3 23.9 24.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,341,100 2,403,300 2,475,700 2,573,600 2,734,700 2,930,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 8.2 7.4 7.4 6.3 5.2 3.9

Lower 95% CI 15.6 13.9 13.9 11.6 9.3 6.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.5 26.6 23.7 21.7 19.7 18.1 16.6 48.1 41.3 36.6 34.2 31.9 30.5

Point estimate 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.7

Upper 95% CI 7.8 7.3 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.2 14.7 13.3 12.3 11.3 10.4 9.3 26.6 23.3 20.9 19.7 18.6 17.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,662,400 1,710,000 1,745,000 1,831,500 1,939,300 2,075,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Mozambique Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 34.8 41.3 46.3 47.8 48.8 Women 6.3 7.1 8.3 8.8 8.9 Total 20.2 22.3 26.3 26.1 25.5 Men 28.4 33.5 37.7 38.9 39.8

Page 2 2010 Women 5.2 5.9 7.0 7.3 7.4 Total 16.8 19.2 20.7 21.7 20.8 Men 21.6 25.5 28.6 29.6 30.3

2025 Women 4.3 4.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 Total 12.9 15.2 16.8 16.1 16.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2005 2003-04 2003 Age (years) 15-49 25-64 25-64 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 19.9 36.0 38.8 ... Women 1.4 6.4 15.0 1.6 Daily use Men Women 18.7 32.1 ... ... ... 5.6 ... 1.5

Survey name Inquérito Demográfico e de Saúde de Moçambique Mozambique STEPS survey STEPS survey Mozambique Moçambique Inquérito Demográfico e de Saúde

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Maputo) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Maputo) 2007 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.7 9.1 Girls 7.4 7.2 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 19% of Mozambique's population smoked (approximately 2,475,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 15% of the population (approximately 2,930,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 33% of men and about 6% of women smoked in Mozambique. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 25% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Mozambique adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Mozambique will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Myanmar Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 16,268 17,366 18,394 19,713 20,818 21,775 Women 17,291 18,717 19,998 21,350 22,480 23,468 Both sexes 33,559 36,083 38,392 41,063 43,298 45,243

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 8.8 6.8 5.1 3.2 1.8 0.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 22.3 15.6 12.4 9.9 8.5 7.4

Lower 95% CI 39.0 36.1 28.0 20.1 13.6 9.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 55.2 45.4 37.8 31.4 26.2 22.1 26.5 70.5 56.9 48.3 42.9 39.8 37.2

Point estimate 14.7 10.9 8.2 6.3 4.9 3.9 5.7

Lower 95% CI 23.4 20.9 16.1 11.3 7.5 5.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.3 27.5 22.4 18.3 15.1 12.7 15.7 45.7 35.5 29.6 25.7 23.5 21.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 11,521,800 9,924,300 8,592,800 7,534,900 6,555,800 5,727,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 6.6 5.1 3.4 2.5 1.4 0.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 18.1 15.7 12.1 9.2 6.2 3.9

Lower 95% CI 30.4 27.2 21.5 16.5 11.4 7.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 44.2 36.3 30.0 24.8 20.8 17.5 21.0 58.8 45.4 39.0 35.5 32.6 30.0

Point estimate 11.2 8.3 6.3 4.8 3.7 2.9 4.4

Upper 95% CI 17.2 12.6 9.3 8.0 6.7 5.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.2 21.8 17.7 14.4 11.9 9.9 12.4 37.4 28.4 23.5 21.2 19.2 17.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 9,127,200 7,857,400 6,778,100 5,913,600 5,161,900 4,491,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Myanmar Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 49.6 54.9 60.4 61.8 61.5 Women 11.3 12.8 16.9 22.1 24.8 Total 30.3 33.4 37.6 40.6 40.3 Men 33.5 37.2 40.9 41.9 41.8

Page 2 2010 Women 6.1 7.0 9.3 11.9 13.6 Total 19.7 21.6 24.3 25.6 25.4 Men 19.2 21.4 23.5 24.1 24.1

2025 Women 2.7 3.1 4.1 5.3 6.0 Total 11.0 12.1 13.4 13.9 13.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15-64 18+ Smokeless use Men 51.4 ... Women 16.1 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 44.8 48.9 Women 7.8 13.7 Daily use Men Women 33.6 35.6 6.1 10.4

Survey name World Health Survey, Myanmar

WHO STEPS Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance - Myanmar 2009 2003

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2007 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 15.2 ... 10.3 Girls 4.0 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use 2.7 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 30.0 7.0 22.5 Girls 6.8 1.5 8.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 22% of Myanmar's population smoked (approximately 8,592,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 5,727,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of men and about 8% of women smoked in Myanmar. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 22% for men and 4% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Myanmar adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Myanmar will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Namibia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 548 585 645 742 838 934 Women 582 635 713 813 909 1,004 Both sexes 1,130 1,220 1,358 1,555 1,747 1,939

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 10.0 9.2 8.0 6.5 5.2 4.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 16.3 14.7 14.0 13.9 14.1 15.2

Lower 95% CI 20.4 22.7 23.7 23.8 21.2 19.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.7 30.2 33.3 37.0 41.1 46.0 23.3 35.9 38.7 44.6 53.1 62.6 73.2

Point estimate 12.9 11.9 11.0 10.2 9.6 9.1 7.7

Lower 95% CI 15.0 15.7 15.5 14.8 12.9 11.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.1 20.7 21.6 23.0 24.7 26.9 15.1 25.8 26.2 28.5 32.6 37.4 43.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 226,900 252,200 293,200 357,500 431,800 521,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 6.8 6.0 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 10.7 11.5 11.2 11.0 10.3 8.9

Lower 95% CI 14.8 17.4 17.5 18.2 17.4 15.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.3 24.3 26.8 29.6 32.9 37.0 18.8 29.3 33.0 36.7 43.2 52.9 61.2

Point estimate 9.9 9.0 8.3 7.8 7.3 7.0 5.8

Upper 95% CI 13.5 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.9 16.3 17.1 18.2 19.6 21.5 12.0 21.2 21.9 23.4 26.4 31.2 35.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 179,800 199,300 232,000 283,100 342,100 416,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Namibia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 23.0 28.5 33.1 32.5 31.5 Women 8.4 11.8 17.4 21.1 23.1 Total 15.7 20.0 24.7 26.3 26.6 Men 27.5 34.2 39.7 38.9 37.8

Page 2 2010 Women 7.0 9.9 14.6 17.7 19.4 Total 17.1 21.6 26.1 26.9 26.8 Men 37.4 46.3 53.5 52.5 51.0

2025 Women 5.6 7.9 11.6 14.1 15.4 Total 21.5 26.9 31.6 30.8 28.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2006-07 2003 2000 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 18.6 20.9 28.0 17.3 Women 4.2 5.3 12.4 5.9 Daily use Men Women 17.6 ... 22.3 ... ... 5.1 9.4 5.7

Survey name Namibia Demographic and Health Survey Namibia Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Namibia Namibia Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2004 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 15.6 ... ... Girls 15.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 31.9 51.7 32.2 Girls 29.9 44.3 25.3 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 22% of Namibia's population smoked (approximately 293,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 27% of the population (approximately 521,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 33% of men and about 11% of women smoked in Namibia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 46% for men and 9% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Namibia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Namibia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Nauru Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3 3 3 3 3 3 Women 3 3 3 3 3 3 Both sexes 6 6 6 6 7 7

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 44.5 41.9 36.0 27.5 21.2 15.9

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 88.3 81.7 77.6 81.3 83.6 87.4

Lower 95% CI 39.0 35.0 30.3 24.4 17.9 13.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 57.9 52.2 47.5 43.4 39.8 37.2 33.3 78.2 68.1 66.5 65.7 66.6 70.5

Point estimate 64.6 59.9 55.9 52.2 49.2 46.8 39.1

Lower 95% CI 41.8 38.5 33.2 26.0 19.6 14.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 60.5 55.4 51.1 47.4 44.4 41.8 35.8 83.3 74.9 72.1 73.5 75.1 79.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,800 3,500 3,200 3,000 2,900 2,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 35.9 35.8 31.0 21.9 17.6 12.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 34.7 33.0 27.9 21.0 16.2 11.1

Lower 95% CI 33.4 30.1 24.7 20.1 14.8 10.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.6 42.8 39.0 35.6 32.8 30.4 27.3 65.2 57.5 53.4 53.6 55.1 54.8

Point estimate 52.1 48.4 45.0 42.1 39.9 38.2 31.5

Upper 95% CI 68.5 62.5 64.3 63.9 66.5 70.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 49.4 45.9 41.5 39.5 36.8 34.4 29.0 66.9 60.0 58.9 58.8 60.8 62.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,100 2,900 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Nauru Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 59.8 59.1 56.5 52.7 49.6 Women 66.5 67.0 63.5 57.6 55.3 Total 63.2 63.0 60.0 55.2 52.4 Men 49.2 48.6 46.5 43.4 40.8

Page 2 2010 Women 57.9 58.2 55.1 50.0 48.0 Total 53.5 53.4 50.8 46.7 44.4 Men 38.7 38.2 36.6 34.2 32.2

2025 Women 48.8 49.1 46.5 42.3 40.5 Total 43.8 43.7 41.6 38.2 36.4

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2004 1994 Age (years) 15-64 25+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 49.7 ... Women 56.0 ... Daily use Men Women 45.5 49.8 50.8 59.0

Survey name Nauru NCD risk factors STEPS Unpublished data for Nauru

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2011 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 25.6 Girls 27.0 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 51% of Nauru's population smoked (approximately 3,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 42% of the population (approximately 2,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 48% of men and about 56% of women smoked in Nauru. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 37% for men and 47% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Nauru adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Nauru will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Nepal Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 6,756 7,389 7,982 8,901 9,945 10,806 Women 7,062 7,924 8,902 10,162 11,356 12,414 Both sexes 13,818 15,313 16,884 19,063 21,301 23,220

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 22.6 16.6 11.0 6.9 4.5 2.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 36.5 24.6 17.2 12.7 9.7 7.5

Lower 95% CI 33.8 33.7 29.9 27.4 22.7 19.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 42.0 40.2 37.5 34.9 32.6 31.3 26.3 51.7 48.2 44.9 44.5 42.7 42.5

Point estimate 28.8 20.3 14.0 9.8 6.9 5.0 9.8

Lower 95% CI 28.1 24.9 19.9 16.5 13.0 10.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.3 29.9 25.1 21.5 18.9 17.2 17.6 43.9 36.0 30.3 27.5 25.1 23.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 4,871,300 4,579,100 4,239,500 4,102,400 4,025,700 4,002,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 15.3 10.9 7.7 4.9 3.2 2.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.2 16.5 13.9 10.8 8.8 7.8

Lower 95% CI 23.3 22.5 20.8 17.5 15.3 14.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.5 29.2 27.4 25.5 23.8 22.6 19.2 38.8 36.4 34.2 33.1 31.7 33.3

Point estimate 21.5 15.0 10.5 7.3 5.2 3.7 7.4

Upper 95% CI 28.0 18.8 13.6 9.7 7.5 5.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.9 21.9 18.5 15.8 13.9 12.5 12.9 33.3 27.3 23.3 20.6 18.8 18.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,578,900 3,346,300 3,121,700 3,011,600 2,957,500 2,901,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Nepal Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 25.6 42.3 57.8 58.0 51.9 Women 10.3 24.2 50.3 55.0 48.8 Total 17.7 33.1 54.1 56.5 50.2 Men 22.2 37.1 50.3 50.4 45.2

Page 2 2010 Women 4.8 11.6 23.6 25.8 22.9 Total 13.0 23.0 36.9 38.1 33.4 Men 18.7 30.3 41.8 41.9 37.5

2025 Women 1.6 3.8 7.8 8.5 7.6 Total 10.1 15.9 22.4 24.9 21.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012-13 2011 2007-08 2006 2003 Age (years) 15-69 15-49 15-64 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men 31.1 34.8 31.2 36.2 ... Women 4.8 Tobacco smoking 4.8 Cigarette smoking 4.6 Tobacco smoking 5.0 Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 27.0 29.8 35.5 30.2 32.6 Women 10.3 8.7 15.9 15.2 19.1 Daily use Men Women 22.2 27.1 31.2 29.2 27.0 9.6 ... 15.5 15.0 15.9

Survey name NCD Risk Factors STEPS Survey Nepal Nepal Demographic and Health Survey Nepal Non Communicable Disease Risk Factors Survey Nepal Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Nepal

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Kathmandu) 2011 2007 2001 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 19.7 8.8 ... Girls 12.9 Any tobacco use 2.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.6 13.0 11.0 Girls 16.4 5.3 4.3 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of Nepal's population smoked (approximately 4,239,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 17% of the population (approximately 4,002,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of men and about 14% of women smoked in Nepal. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 31% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Nepal adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Nepal will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Netherlands Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 6,339 6,526 6,738 6,907 7,062 7,142 Women 6,577 6,769 6,969 7,105 7,238 7,312 Both sexes 12,916 13,295 13,707 14,011 14,300 14,454

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 24.6 22.4 19.9 17.4 14.2 11.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 35.6 31.9 28.5 26.9 25.1 24.0

Lower 95% CI 31.0 27.8 23.7 20.1 16.9 13.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.1 32.8 29.1 25.7 22.8 20.3 20.4 44.0 38.9 35.1 32.1 29.5 27.7

Point estimate 29.9 27.0 24.3 21.9 19.6 17.7 17.0

Lower 95% CI 27.7 25.1 21.8 18.7 15.5 12.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.4 29.8 26.7 23.8 21.2 19.0 18.7 39.7 35.3 31.7 29.5 27.3 25.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 4,318,300 3,968,300 3,654,300 3,330,900 3,028,800 2,744,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 14.3 13.0 11.6 9.8 9.0 7.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 15.0 13.4 11.6 9.9 8.7 7.0

Lower 95% CI 15.7 13.9 11.6 10.0 8.3 6.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.8 24.8 21.9 19.3 17.2 15.3 15.3 38.0 33.8 29.5 27.0 24.9 22.4

Point estimate 23.1 20.8 18.7 16.8 15.1 13.6 13.1

Upper 95% CI 31.6 28.6 26.3 24.0 22.5 20.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.4 22.8 20.3 18.0 16.1 14.4 14.2 34.7 31.2 27.9 25.5 23.7 21.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,281,500 3,026,500 2,778,900 2,526,500 2,307,600 2,087,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Netherlands Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 31.5 41.2 40.9 34.0 26.5 Women 28.6 34.9 34.6 25.7 16.5 Total 30.1 38.1 37.8 29.8 20.3 Men 24.6 32.2 32.1 26.6 20.7

Page 2 2010 Women 24.1 29.5 29.2 21.7 13.9 Total 24.4 30.8 30.7 24.2 16.7 Men 17.7 23.0 22.8 18.9 14.7

2025 Women 19.1 23.2 22.9 17.0 11.0 Total 18.3 23.1 22.9 18.0 12.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... 0.3 ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 0.1 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 30.0 Women 24.0 25.0 23.0 26.0 26.0 Daily use Men Women 19.0 20.0 ... ... ... 15.0 13.0 ... ... ...

Survey name The Dutch Continuous Survey of Smoking Habits The Dutch Continuous Survey of Smoking Habits The Dutch Continuous Survey of Smoking Habits The Dutch Continuous Survey of Smoking Habits The Dutch Continuous Survey of Smoking Habits

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Youth Smoking Monitor Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2010 2010 2002 Age (years) 15-15 13-14 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.0 7.9 22.5 Girls 16.8 6.0 24.3 Daily use Boys 10.0 ... 18.7 Girls 12.0 ... 19.7

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of Netherlands's population smoked (approximately 3,654,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 2,744,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of men and about 24% of women smoked in Netherlands. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 20% for men and 18% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Netherlands adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Netherlands will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Nicaragua Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,477 1,659 1,857 2,075 2,274 2,478 Women 1,537 1,735 1,956 2,186 2,397 2,610 Both sexes 3,014 3,394 3,813 4,261 4,671 5,088

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Nicaragua Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2001 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... Women 5.5 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Encuesta Nicaraguense de Demografía y Salud

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Centro Managua) 2003 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 30.4 Girls 20.5 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Nicaragua.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2001, shows that around 6% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Nicaragua. There were no data for men.

If Nicaragua adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Niger Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,803 3,314 3,951 4,785 5,834 7,133 Women 2,919 3,409 4,024 4,827 5,843 7,106 Both sexes 5,722 6,723 7,975 9,612 11,678 14,238

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Lower 95% CI 5.2 8.3 11.2 13.4 15.8 16.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.3 11.6 14.8 19.0 24.5 31.9 10.4 13.0 15.2 19.0 25.0 35.9 49.0

Point estimate 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Lower 95% CI 2.6 4.1 5.6 6.7 7.9 8.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 4.7 5.9 7.4 9.6 12.3 16.0 5.2 6.6 7.7 9.6 12.6 18.1 24.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 269,400 394,700 592,800 918,800 1,441,100 2,282,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.0

Lower 95% CI 3.8 5.2 6.7 8.2 9.5 10.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.5 8.2 10.4 13.4 17.3 22.8 7.3 9.5 11.2 14.4 19.2 25.8 37.4

Point estimate 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Upper 95% CI 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 3.3 4.1 5.3 6.7 8.7 11.5 3.7 4.9 5.7 7.3 9.7 13.0 18.8

Estimated no. of daily smokers 188,000 278,600 418,900 646,000 1,015,200 1,633,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Niger Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 9.1 10.4 8.8 7.0 6.8 Women 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total 4.4 5.3 4.9 3.4 3.3 Men 14.7 16.9 14.0 11.3 11.0

Page 2 2010 Women 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total 7.2 8.2 7.7 5.8 5.1 Men 31.6 36.3 30.5 24.1 23.5

2025 Women 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total 15.8 18.1 15.3 12.9 11.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women 2.3 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 14.0 8.7 ... Women 2.4 1.0 0.1 Daily use Men Women 13.9 7.5 ... ... 0.2 ...

Survey name

Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples au Niger 2012 Demographic and Health Survey

Mesure des facteurs de risque des maladies non transmissibles au Niger Step wise de 2007 (Approche 15-64 . .l'OMS) . 2006 15-49 ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2006 2001 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.8 15.2 23.3 Girls 5.6 8.0 12.0 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 7% of Niger's population smoked (approximately 592,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 16% of the population (approximately 2,282,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of men and about 0% of women smoked in Niger. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 32% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Niger adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Niger will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Nigeria Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 34,947 39,762 45,230 51,725 59,633 69,198 Women 34,474 39,018 44,170 50,328 57,852 66,912 Both sexes 69,421 78,780 89,400 102,053 117,485 136,110

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3

Lower 95% CI 6.3 7.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.3 13.0 15.0 17.4 20.2 23.7 10.5 17.2 19.8 24.0 29.1 35.7 44.7

Point estimate 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9

Lower 95% CI 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.6 7.4 8.2 9.3 10.6 12.4 5.8 10.2 11.3 13.2 15.7 18.9 23.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 4,604,000 5,793,400 7,358,700 9,503,400 12,508,700 16,868,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.4

Lower 95% CI 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.6 5.8 6.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.9 10.3 11.8 13.7 16.0 18.7 8.3 14.5 16.9 19.6 23.4 28.0 34.9

Point estimate 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7

Upper 95% CI 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 5.2 5.8 6.5 7.3 8.4 9.8 4.5 8.6 9.6 10.9 12.6 14.8 18.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,627,400 4,563,700 5,778,800 7,489,000 9,888,400 13,274,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Nigeria Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 10.6 11.8 11.9 11.0 10.4 Women 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 Total 6.2 6.9 7.0 6.5 6.1 Men 14.1 15.7 15.8 14.6 13.9

Page 2 2010 Women 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 Total 7.7 8.6 8.6 7.9 7.4 Men 22.2 24.8 24.9 23.0 21.9

2025 Women 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 Total 11.7 13.0 13.0 11.7 10.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008 2003 1990 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 9.0 ... 15.4 Women 0.2 0.5 1.7 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... ...

Survey name Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey Non-communicable diseases in Nigeria

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Abuja) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Cross River State) 2008 2000 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 10.6 ... Girls 6.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.2 22.6 Girls 11.1 11.2 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 8% of Nigeria's population smoked (approximately 7,358,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 12% of the population (approximately 16,868,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Nigeria. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 24% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Nigeria adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Nigeria will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Niue Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1 1 1 0 0 0 Women 1 1 1 0 0 0 Both sexes 1 1 1 1 1 1

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 8.1 8.2 7.7 6.7 5.3 4.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 24.0 20.2 17.1 15.8 15.5 15.5

Lower 95% CI 17.8 17.6 15.5 13.0 10.3 7.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.5 26.5 23.2 20.3 18.2 16.2 16.2 49.4 38.0 32.0 28.2 27.7 27.2

Point estimate 15.6 14.0 12.5 11.3 10.2 9.4 8.8

Lower 95% CI 13.0 12.9 11.6 9.9 7.8 6.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.1 23.7 18.2 20.9 11.6 12.5 12.7 36.7 29.1 24.6 22.0 21.6 21.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 300 300 200 200 100 100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 4.9 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 7.8 8.3 8.0 6.6 5.5 4.2

Lower 95% CI 10.7 11.3 11.1 8.7 7.3 5.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.2 19.2 16.7 14.7 13.1 11.8 11.7 34.8 28.2 23.2 20.2 20.2 20.5

Point estimate 10.5 9.4 8.4 7.5 6.8 6.3 5.9

Upper 95% CI 16.4 14.0 11.9 11.0 10.4 10.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.0 15.8 9.1 10.5 11.6 12.5 6.4 25.6 21.1 17.6 15.6 15.3 15.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 200 200 100 100 100 100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Niue Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 30.1 30.7 31.0 30.7 30.1 Women 14.8 15.7 16.5 16.0 15.1 Total 22.5 23.2 23.7 23.4 22.6 Men 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.3 22.8

Page 2 2010 Women 11.8 12.6 13.1 12.8 12.0 Total 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.0 17.4 Men 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.3 16.0

2025 Women 8.9 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.1 Total 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.0 12.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2006 Age (years) 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 22.6 30.7 Women 13.0 16.2 Daily use Men Women 15.8 ... 7.6 ...

Survey name Niue STEPS Census of Population and Housing

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 9.0 Girls . . . Any tobacco use 7.9 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 26.3 14.1 Girls ... 18.5 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of Niue's population smoked (approximately 200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of men and about 13% of women smoked in Niue. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 16% for men and 9% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Niue adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Niue will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Norway Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,762 1,827 1,973 2,086 2,190 2,281 Women 1,831 1,889 1,998 2,101 2,203 2,294 Both sexes 3,593 3,716 3,972 4,187 4,393 4,575

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 32.5 27.0 22.3 17.7 13.9 10.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 46.2 37.3 30.7 25.4 21.4 17.4

Lower 95% CI 35.9 28.8 23.0 18.1 14.3 11.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 42.9 34.5 27.7 22.1 17.6 14.1 19.4 50.7 40.0 31.8 25.9 21.5 17.9

Point estimate 39.4 32.2 26.1 21.2 17.2 13.9 18.3

Lower 95% CI 34.2 27.9 22.6 17.9 14.1 10.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 41.1 33.3 26.9 21.6 17.4 14.0 18.8 48.4 38.6 31.2 25.6 21.4 17.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,477,300 1,238,700 1,068,100 906,400 764,400 640,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 23.2 19.1 15.3 12.5 9.8 7.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 24.3 20.0 15.7 12.6 9.9 7.6

Lower 95% CI 25.4 20.9 16.1 12.7 10.0 7.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.5 24.3 19.5 15.6 12.4 10.0 13.7 36.3 28.3 22.7 18.4 15.3 12.7

Point estimate 28.4 23.1 18.7 15.2 12.3 10.0 13.1

Upper 95% CI 33.3 26.6 21.5 17.9 15.0 12.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.4 23.7 19.1 15.4 12.3 10.0 13.4 34.8 27.4 22.1 18.1 15.1 12.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,057,400 880,400 758,500 644,800 542,500 457,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Norway Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 39.1 46.3 47.5 41.1 31.7 Women 38.6 44.0 46.9 36.3 25.0 Total 38.8 45.2 47.2 38.7 27.6 Men 25.3 30.0 30.8 26.6 20.6

Page 2 2010 Women 25.5 29.2 31.1 24.0 16.5 Total 25.4 29.6 30.9 25.3 18.2 Men 13.1 15.5 15.9 13.6 10.6

2025 Women 13.8 15.8 16.8 12.9 9.0 Total 13.4 15.6 16.3 13.3 9.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 16-74 16-74 16-74 16-74 16-74 Smokeless use Men 19.0 20.0 19.9 18.2 17.0 Women 7.0 Tobacco smoking 6.0 Tobacco smoking 6.3 Tobacco smoking 4.2 Tobacco smoking 5.0 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 25.0 27.0 27.9 30.5 31.0 Women 21.0 25.0 27.8 28.5 28.0 Daily use Men Women 15.0 16.0 16.7 19.4 21.0 14.0 16.0 17.5 19.5 20.0

Survey name

Statistics Norway Smoking Habits Survey (Reise- og ferieundersøkelse) 2013 Statistics Norway Smoking Habits Survey (Reise- og ferieundersøkelse) 2012 Statistics Norway Smoking Habits Survey (Reise- og ferieundersøkelse) 2011 Statistics Norway Smoking Habits Survey (Reise- og ferieundersøkelse) 2010 Statistics Norway Smoking Habits Survey (Reise- og ferieundersøkelse) 2009

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Tobacco use by early adolescents in Norway 2010 2002 1995 Age (years) 15-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 18.0 ... ... Girls 9.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 8.8 20.1 22.9 Girls 8.2 26.6 29.1 Daily use Boys 6.0 15.6 7.8 Girls 6.0 19.9 9.2

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of Norway's population smoked (approximately 1,068,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 14% of the population (approximately 640,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of men and about 26% of women smoked in Norway. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 14% for men and 14% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Norway adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Norway will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Oman Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 811 957 1,252 2,249 2,375 2,479 Women 566 680 782 997 1,104 1,229 Both sexes 1,377 1,637 2,035 3,246 3,479 3,708

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.5

Lower 95% CI 9.5 11.0 11.4 10.7 10.4 10.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.8 15.1 17.9 21.4 26.9 33.3 12.5 16.9 19.8 25.6 33.2 45.9 65.1

Point estimate 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.6

Lower 95% CI 5.8 6.6 7.2 7.5 7.2 6.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 7.8 9.2 11.4 15.1 18.7 22.7 8.0 10.4 12.1 16.3 23.6 32.0 44.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 107,800 150,000 231,200 491,300 651,000 840,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.1

Lower 95% CI 5.9 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.4 12.2 14.5 17.5 22.1 27.3 10.2 14.4 17.0 21.3 28.1 39.8 54.5

Point estimate 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4

Upper 95% CI 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.3 7.4 9.2 12.3 15.3 18.6 6.4 8.8 10.4 13.5 19.9 27.6 37.1

Estimated no. of daily smokers 87,200 120,800 186,300 400,600 533,700 687,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Oman Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 11.2 13.6 14.2 11.5 9.8 Women 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 Total 6.2 9.0 9.5 6.4 4.8 Men 15.8 18.8 19.7 16.1 13.7

Page 2 2010 Women 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 Total 9.5 12.5 12.9 9.3 7.7 Men 27.4 34.4 35.2 28.0 23.9

2025 Women 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 Total 14.4 25.6 24.4 16.8 13.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008 2000 1995 Age (years) 18+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 16.6 10.7 15.5 Women 0.7 0.4 1.5 Daily use Men Women 14.3 ... ... 0.3 ... ...

Survey name World Health Survey National Health Survey Oman Family Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.5 ... Girls 0.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 4.9 17.8 Girls 1.7 ... 11.3 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

... Survey of knowledge, and the impression and practice lifestyles among students of universities, colleges and0.4 institutions of higher education 2008. 2008 18-24 7.0 . .(KAP) .

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 11% of Oman's population smoked (approximately 231,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 840,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Oman. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 33% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Oman adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Oman will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Pakistan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 43,503 50,126 57,065 64,569 71,490 78,925 Women 40,703 47,556 54,723 61,798 68,242 75,297 Both sexes 84,206 97,682 111,788 126,367 139,733 154,222

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 4.7 3.7 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 10.3 7.0 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.6

Lower 95% CI 25.3 27.4 28.1 28.2 24.7 24.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.2 36.2 37.9 39.7 42.3 45.1 26.5 45.8 44.7 48.2 54.2 61.9 73.3

Point estimate 7.5 5.3 3.7 2.7 2.0 1.5 2.6

Lower 95% CI 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.2 13.2 12.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.8 21.2 21.2 21.6 22.6 23.8 14.8 28.6 26.3 27.0 29.6 33.2 38.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 18,365,700 20,666,100 23,652,300 27,302,500 31,605,200 36,724,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 12.6 12.4 12.5 11.3 10.3 9.8

Lower 95% CI 20.8 21.4 22.5 20.8 19.3 18.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.0 29.9 31.1 32.8 35.0 37.1 21.8 38.4 38.0 40.9 44.9 51.7 60.5

Point estimate 6.2 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.2 2.2

Upper 95% CI 8.7 5.8 4.1 3.2 2.6 2.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.0 17.4 17.4 17.8 18.7 19.6 12.2 24.0 22.3 22.9 24.5 27.7 32.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 15,139,400 17,032,600 19,443,500 22,538,300 26,113,500 30,184,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Pakistan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 25.9 36.4 44.4 42.8 40.2 Women 4.9 6.8 10.0 12.0 12.6 Total 15.7 22.0 27.7 28.3 27.4 Men 27.9 39.0 47.8 46.1 43.4

Page 2 2010 Women 2.4 3.3 5.0 6.0 6.3 Total 15.5 21.5 26.8 26.5 25.6 Men 32.1 45.3 55.1 53.2 50.1

2025 Women 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 Total 17.1 23.9 28.8 27.8 26.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012-13 2012 2002-03 1990-94 Age (years) 15-49 15-64 18+ 15+ Smokeless use Men 21.9 ... ... ... Women 5.1 Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 27.6 36.0 32.4 ... Women 1.3 7.0 5.7 ... Daily use Men Women 27.6 35.0 27.3 28.5 1.3 7.0 4.4 3.4

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey National Health Behaviour Survey World Health Survey, Pakistan National Health Survey of Pakistan

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Karachi) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Lahore) 2009 2008 2008 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 13.8 ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking 7.4 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 9.9 17.5 7.2 Girls 1.0 9.6 5.0 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Pakistan's population smoked (approximately 23,652,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 36,724,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Pakistan. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 45% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Pakistan adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Pakistan will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Panama Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,044 1,175 1,308 1,451 1,598 1,741 Women 1,029 1,157 1,292 1,437 1,587 1,734 Both sexes 2,073 2,332 2,600 2,888 3,185 3,475

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 7.0 5.1 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.9

Lower 95% CI 16.3 14.1 11.2 7.7 4.7 2.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.6 19.0 14.2 10.6 8.0 6.1 9.9 34.6 24.0 17.9 14.4 11.8 10.1

Point estimate 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.7 2.2

Lower 95% CI 9.8 8.6 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.4 11.6 8.7 6.6 5.1 3.9 6.1 20.9 14.6 11.0 9.0 7.5 6.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 319,800 269,500 227,100 191,200 161,200 135,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 3.7 3.0 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.8

Lower 95% CI 6.0 4.7 4.2 3.1 2.2 1.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.6 10.0 7.4 5.6 4.2 3.2 5.2 21.7 15.0 11.4 8.7 7.0 5.7

Point estimate 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.2

Upper 95% CI 4.3 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.2 6.1 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.1 3.2 13.1 9.2 7.0 5.4 4.4 3.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 169,800 141,800 118,800 101,400 84,600 71,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Panama Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.1 22.6 Women 4.5 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.2 Total 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 14.0 Men 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.9 12.5

Page 2 2010 Women 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 Total 8.7 8.7 8.9 8.8 7.9 Men 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.4

2025 Women 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 Total 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 Age (years) 15+ Smokeless use Men 1.0 ... ... Women 0.5 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 9.4 14.1 17.3 Women 2.8 3.1 3.7 Daily use Men Women 4.4 9.8 ... 1.2 1.8 ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey Encuesta Nacional de Salud Y Calidad de Vida - Panama

Encuesta de Prevalencia de Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares 2010 18+ 2007 15+

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2008 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 4.8 3.8 ... Girls 4.2 Any tobacco use 3.2 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.1 10.5 20.5 Girls 10.2 6.5 15.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 9% of Panama's population smoked (approximately 227,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 4% of the population (approximately 135,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 14% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Panama. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 6% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Panama adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Panama will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Papua New Guinea Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,626 1,849 2,111 2,422 2,753 3,096 Women 1,588 1,811 2,069 2,372 2,694 3,029 Both sexes 3,214 3,660 4,180 4,794 5,448 6,125

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Papua New Guinea Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 Age (years) 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 60.3 Women 27.0 Daily use Men Women 59.9 26.6

Survey name Papua New Guinea STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 55.4 Girls 40.3 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Papua New Guinea.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2007, shows that around 60% of men and around 27% of women aged 15-64 smoked in Papua New Guinea. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Papua New Guinea adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Paraguay Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,669 1,909 2,157 2,404 2,649 2,886 Women 1,639 1,880 2,136 2,394 2,651 2,904 Both sexes 3,308 3,789 4,293 4,798 5,300 5,790

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 10.3 8.4 6.5 4.6 3.2 2.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 18.6 14.5 12.5 11.0 9.9 9.0

Lower 95% CI 31.7 28.3 22.7 17.9 13.1 9.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.3 38.3 32.5 27.9 24.1 20.8 22.8 57.7 48.8 42.2 38.8 36.5 32.7

Point estimate 14.2 11.5 9.3 7.7 6.4 5.3 6.5

Lower 95% CI 21.1 18.4 14.6 11.3 8.1 5.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.9 25.0 21.0 17.8 15.2 13.0 14.7 38.3 31.8 27.4 24.9 23.2 20.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 988,600 947,300 899,700 855,200 808,000 754,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 5.5 4.5 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 12.2 10.7 8.8 6.5 4.7 3.6

Lower 95% CI 18.7 16.8 14.2 10.5 7.5 6.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.7 23.6 20.0 17.2 14.8 12.9 14.0 36.2 30.7 28.0 24.6 22.6 22.0

Point estimate 8.4 6.8 5.5 4.6 3.7 3.1 3.9

Upper 95% CI 11.3 9.1 7.5 6.8 6.0 5.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.1 15.3 12.8 10.9 9.2 8.0 8.9 23.9 20.0 17.8 15.7 14.3 13.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 599,900 578,400 548,900 523,700 490,100 462,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Paraguay Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 41.6 44.4 49.5 50.7 47.7 Women 12.2 12.8 15.8 19.2 20.3 Total 27.1 28.7 33.1 34.9 32.6 Men 29.8 31.7 35.5 36.3 34.1

Page 2 2010 Women 7.9 8.3 10.3 12.5 13.2 Total 19.0 20.1 23.0 24.5 22.8 Men 18.9 20.2 22.5 23.0 21.7

2025 Women 4.4 4.6 5.7 6.9 7.3 Total 11.8 12.4 14.0 14.8 14.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15-74 18+ 15-66 Smokeless use Men 3.0 ... ... Women 1.6 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 22.8 41.6 ... Women 6.1 13.3 ... Daily use Men Women 17.4 23.5 24.1 4.2 6.5 5.5

Survey name World Health Survey, Paraguay Tobacco or Health: Status in the Americas

Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo de Paraguay (STEPS) 2011 2003 1990

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Asuncion) 2008 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.8 26.1 Girls 12.9 25.2 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Paraguay's population smoked (approximately 899,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 754,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 33% of men and about 9% of women smoked in Paraguay. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 21% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Paraguay adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Paraguay will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Peru Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 8,541 9,388 10,196 11,170 12,143 13,078 Women 8,596 9,461 10,289 11,266 12,243 13,182 Both sexes 17,138 18,848 20,486 22,436 24,386 26,260

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 6.1 6.0 5.4 4.4 3.3 2.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 13.0 10.6 8.7 7.7 7.1 6.4

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate 9.6 8.1 6.9 5.9 5.0 4.3 4.8

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.3

Upper 95% CI 10.5 8.6 7.1 6.1 5.4 4.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Peru Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women 9.2 9.6 9.6 10.4 10.7 Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women 6.6 6.9 6.8 7.4 7.6 Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.7 Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007-08 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 15-49 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women 3.6 5.1 5.8 6.0 6.9 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ... ... 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.6

Survey name Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Prevención y Consumo de Drogas en Estudiantes de Secundaria 2012 Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2007 Age (years) 14-16 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... 4.3 Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use 4.8 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.9 24.0 21.5 Girls 6.5 12.2 16.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data for men to calculate an overall trend estimate for Peru.

In 2010, about 7% of women smoked in Peru. By 2025, WHO projects a rate of about 4% of women smoking. There are insufficient data for men. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among women was seen in the age-group 70+. If Peru adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Philippines Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 23,811 26,851 29,970 33,573 37,389 41,005 Women 23,938 27,152 30,504 34,241 38,218 42,037 Both sexes 47,748 54,004 60,474 67,814 75,607 83,041

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 8.4 8.1 7.0 5.9 4.8 4.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 13.5 11.8 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.8

Lower 95% CI 45.5 42.6 39.6 34.6 27.9 22.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 59.1 53.3 47.8 43.2 39.2 35.8 33.5 74.3 63.3 56.7 53.8 51.0 49.4

Point estimate 11.0 9.7 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 6.0

Lower 95% CI 26.9 25.3 23.2 20.1 16.2 13.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.0 31.4 28.0 25.3 22.8 20.8 19.6 43.8 37.4 33.2 31.5 29.8 28.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 16,705,200 16,945,500 16,948,800 17,139,900 17,255,300 17,285,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.1 3.2 2.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 20.0 18.9 17.4 15.1 11.7 9.8

Lower 95% CI 34.2 32.4 30.0 26.4 20.3 17.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.3 41.5 37.2 33.8 30.6 27.8 26.0 59.3 50.9 46.2 43.3 40.4 39.1

Point estimate 7.9 7.0 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.4 4.3

Upper 95% CI 10.0 8.8 7.8 7.0 6.5 6.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.0 24.2 21.6 19.5 17.6 16.0 15.1 34.6 29.7 26.8 25.0 23.3 22.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 12,915,400 13,044,000 13,040,000 13,230,800 13,313,700 13,248,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Philippines Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 49.8 65.1 66.8 57.2 41.4 Women 5.2 9.1 15.6 21.5 24.6 Total 27.9 37.4 41.1 38.4 31.3 Men 40.2 52.5 53.8 46.4 33.6

Page 2 2010 Women 3.9 6.9 11.9 16.2 18.5 Total 22.4 29.8 32.6 30.4 24.6 Men 30.0 39.2 40.1 34.3 25.2

2025 Women 2.6 4.6 8.0 10.9 12.4 Total 16.6 22.1 23.8 21.8 17.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2008-09 2008 2008 2003 Age (years) 20+ 15+ 20+ 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men ... 2.8 ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking 1.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 44.7 47.6 53.2 ... 57.5 Women 7.8 9.0 12.5 5.1 12.3 Daily use Men Women ... 38.2 ... ... 40.3 ... 6.9 ... 4.9 7.1

Survey name National Nutrition Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Philippines National Nutrition and Health Survey (NNHeS) Philippines Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Philippines

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2011 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 5.8 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 3.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.3 18.8 28.3 Girls 6.8 9.3 17.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of Philippines's population smoked (approximately 16,948,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 21% of the population (approximately 17,285,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 48% of men and about 9% of women smoked in Philippines. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 36% for men and 6% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Philippines adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Philippines will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Poland Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 14,789 15,269 15,506 15,476 15,307 15,228 Women 16,137 16,668 16,959 16,966 16,818 16,739 Both sexes 30,926 31,937 32,465 32,441 32,125 31,966

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 25.8 24.1 20.7 17.4 12.6 9.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 46.3 36.5 30.5 28.0 25.7 24.0

Lower 95% CI 33.4 32.6 30.0 25.1 19.6 14.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.0 41.2 36.6 32.6 29.0 25.7 25.6 60.7 50.0 44.5 41.1 38.8 37.5

Point estimate 36.0 30.2 25.7 21.9 18.7 15.8 18.0

Lower 95% CI 29.4 28.2 25.1 21.1 15.9 11.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 41.3 35.5 30.9 27.0 23.6 20.5 21.6 53.2 43.0 37.2 34.2 31.9 30.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 12,760,400 11,324,400 10,033,800 8,760,500 7,584,100 6,558,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 19.8 18.0 15.9 12.3 9.5 6.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 23.6 22.6 20.1 16.3 12.8 9.2

Lower 95% CI 27.8 27.6 24.7 20.6 16.5 12.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 38.6 34.0 30.2 26.8 23.9 21.2 21.1 49.5 41.5 35.9 33.8 32.7 31.2

Point estimate 26.9 22.7 19.3 16.4 14.0 11.9 13.5

Upper 95% CI 34.4 27.4 23.3 20.8 19.3 17.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.5 28.1 24.5 21.4 18.7 16.3 17.2 41.6 34.1 29.3 27.0 25.7 24.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 10,049,600 8,975,000 7,956,000 6,929,800 6,013,000 5,220,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Poland Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 36.8 52.6 56.5 43.6 27.4 Women 29.8 46.6 49.6 26.3 9.0 Total 33.3 49.6 53.0 34.1 15.4 Men 29.0 40.8 43.7 35.2 20.6

Page 2 2010 Women 22.0 33.8 35.5 20.8 6.1 Total 25.6 37.4 39.6 27.4 11.3 Men 20.3 29.6 31.3 23.9 14.9

2025 Women 13.9 22.2 23.2 12.1 4.0 Total 17.2 26.0 27.2 17.6 8.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2008-09 2007 1996 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 16+ 16+ Smokeless use Men 1.0 ... ... ... ... Women 0.1 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 36.9 ... 47.3 49.6 52.1 Women 24.4 ... 24.5 25.3 27.4 Daily use Men Women 33.5 34.0 40.9 47.4 50.4 21.0 23.9 19.4 23.3 23.3

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Poland The current status of tobacco epidemic in Poland Health Interview Survey

Palenie tytonio w Polsce: Postawy, Nastepstwa zdrowotne I profilanktyka 1995 Palenie tytonio w Polsce: Postawy, Nastepstwa zdrowotne I profilanktyka 1994

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 Age (years) 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 2.0 Girls . . . Tobacco smoking 1.0 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.7 17.0 Girls 12.1 19.0 Daily use Boys 12.0 ... Girls 8.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of Poland's population smoked (approximately 10,033,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 21% of the population (approximately 6,558,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 37% of men and about 26% of women smoked in Poland. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 26% for men and 16% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Poland adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Poland will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Portugal Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,119 4,243 4,303 4,354 4,412 4,441 Women 4,520 4,628 4,683 4,723 4,759 4,768 Both sexes 8,639 8,871 8,986 9,078 9,171 9,210

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 9.8 9.4 8.8 7.7 6.0 4.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 18.6 16.7 16.2 16.1 15.9 16.4

Lower 95% CI 26.3 25.2 24.2 20.8 17.1 14.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.4 32.5 30.6 28.8 27.1 25.6 21.4 44.0 39.8 38.2 37.6 38.0 38.8

Point estimate 14.1 13.2 12.3 11.6 10.9 10.3 8.6

Lower 95% CI 17.7 17.0 16.2 14.0 11.3 9.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.8 22.4 21.1 19.9 18.7 17.7 14.7 30.7 27.7 26.7 26.4 26.5 27.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,054,400 1,989,900 1,892,600 1,802,000 1,714,400 1,628,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.1 3.9 3.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 12.6 12.5 11.3 10.5 8.6 6.8

Lower 95% CI 19.3 19.5 17.3 16.4 13.6 10.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.9 26.3 24.7 23.4 22.1 20.9 17.3 36.8 33.9 31.7 31.9 31.2 32.1

Point estimate 10.1 9.4 8.9 8.3 7.8 7.4 6.2

Upper 95% CI 14.4 12.6 12.2 12.2 11.9 12.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.6 17.5 16.5 15.5 14.7 13.9 11.5 25.1 22.8 21.5 21.6 21.2 21.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,605,800 1,551,000 1,479,500 1,411,000 1,346,300 1,281,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Portugal Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 41.3 43.0 36.8 23.5 14.3 Women 20.6 19.0 13.9 8.6 6.4 Total 31.1 30.9 25.0 15.5 9.5 Men 37.6 39.2 33.4 21.6 12.8

Page 2 2010 Women 18.6 17.2 12.5 7.8 5.7 Total 28.3 28.3 22.8 14.3 8.5 Men 33.5 34.9 29.5 19.1 11.2

2025 Women 17.0 15.6 11.2 6.9 5.0 Total 25.4 25.4 20.3 12.8 7.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 35.1 40.1 30.9 40.1 ... Women 18.0 19.0 11.8 17.6 ... Daily use Men Women ... ... 27.6 ... 29.2 ... ... 10.6 ... 7.9

Survey name

Inquérito Nacional ao Consumo de Substâncias Psicoactivas na População 2012 Portuguesa 15-64 Inquérito Nacional ao Consumo de Substâncias Psicoactivas na População Portugal 2007 geral, 15-64 National Health Survey National Health Survey 2005-06 15+ Inquérito Nacional ao Consumo de Substâncias Psicoactivas na População 2001 Portuguesa 15-64 1998-99 15+

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Estudo sobre o Consumo de Álcool, Tabaco e Drogas (ESPAD) Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2011 2010 2002 Age (years) 15-15 15-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.1 11.4 17.6 Girls 17.4 10.1 26.2 Daily use Boys ... 7.0 13.1 Girls ... 6.0 19.5

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of Portugal's population smoked (approximately 1,892,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 18% of the population (approximately 1,628,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of men and about 12% of women smoked in Portugal. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 26% for men and 10% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Portugal adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Portugal will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Republic of Moldova Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,467 1,429 1,392 1,331 1,270 1,237 Women 1,667 1,623 1,586 1,526 1,467 1,434 Both sexes 3,133 3,052 2,977 2,858 2,737 2,670

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.4

Lower 95% CI 30.8 33.7 35.2 34.2 34.2 31.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 40.7 41.9 43.9 45.5 47.6 49.3 30.7 50.9 50.1 53.6 55.6 61.8 66.2

Point estimate 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 3.5

Lower 95% CI 16.4 17.9 18.6 17.9 17.6 15.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.8 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.6 25.3 16.2 27.3 26.8 28.3 29.2 32.1 34.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 683,500 681,700 690,200 680,600 673,400 675,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.4 13.5

Lower 95% CI 24.7 25.8 26.8 28.0 28.2 26.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.6 35.6 36.8 38.3 40.0 41.6 25.8 45.4 45.0 46.0 49.9 55.5 59.6

Point estimate 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.8

Upper 95% CI 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.3 13.5 24.3 24.0 24.3 26.0 28.5 30.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 575,700 575,400 575,500 569,500 563,700 567,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Republic of Moldova Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 39.6 45.3 42.3 35.0 30.2 Women 7.6 6.9 4.3 2.8 2.2 Total 23.7 25.7 22.5 16.6 12.0 Men 43.3 49.2 45.5 38.5 32.6

Page 2 2010 Women 7.5 6.9 4.1 2.8 2.1 Total 25.4 27.5 23.8 19.0 12.5 Men 48.5 55.7 51.9 42.7 36.9

2025 Women 7.5 6.6 4.2 2.7 2.1 Total 28.4 31.0 26.7 20.1 14.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2010 2005 Age (years) 25-69 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.6 39.3 51.1 43.3 7.1 Women 5.6 4.5 7.1 3.9 ... Daily use Men Women 40.6 ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ...

Survey name Moldova STEPS Health in Times of Transition Study Moldova Demographic and Health Survey Determinants of obesity-related underreporting of energy intake

Prevalence of smoking in 8 countries of the former Soviet Union: results from the18+ Living Conditions, Health Study 2001 . . .Lifestyles . and . . Tobacco smoking 1997 15-49 ... . . . Tobacco smoking

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2008 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 5.2 ... Girls 2.6 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.8 25.3 Girls 7.1 7.9 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of Republic of Moldova's population smoked (approximately 690,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 25% of the population (approximately 675,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 44% of men and about 5% of women smoked in Republic of Moldova. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 49% for men and 5% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Republic of Moldova adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Republic of Moldova will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Romania Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 8,795 9,030 8,970 8,827 8,662 8,512 Women 9,419 9,657 9,609 9,483 9,320 9,165 Both sexes 18,214 18,687 18,579 18,310 17,982 17,677

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 19.5 19.5 18.1 15.3 12.6 10.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 32.2 29.0 26.8 26.4 25.7 26.2

Lower 95% CI 40.5 37.9 33.0 27.4 21.0 16.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 52.1 45.9 40.8 36.3 32.4 28.8 28.6 66.3 55.0 48.7 45.8 44.0 42.8

Point estimate 25.6 23.7 22.0 20.6 19.0 17.5 15.4

Lower 95% CI 29.6 28.4 25.3 21.1 16.6 13.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 38.4 34.4 31.1 28.2 25.5 22.9 21.8 48.7 41.6 37.4 35.8 34.5 34.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 6,993,600 6,433,400 5,773,800 5,157,700 4,577,400 4,055,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 15.2 15.2 14.1 11.9 9.3 7.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 23.9 23.5 20.8 17.6 13.8 11.1

Lower 95% CI 33.3 32.4 27.9 23.7 18.7 14.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 45.2 40.0 35.5 31.5 28.0 24.8 24.9 58.7 48.6 42.3 40.5 39.0 36.6

Point estimate 20.7 19.2 17.8 16.5 15.3 14.0 12.5

Upper 95% CI 25.9 23.8 21.8 21.4 20.4 20.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.5 29.3 26.3 23.7 21.4 19.2 18.4 41.7 35.8 31.7 30.6 29.4 28.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 5,925,200 5,466,100 4,894,800 4,345,200 3,851,400 3,394,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Romania Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 52.2 58.7 56.9 43.3 34.5 Women 28.0 35.1 29.6 16.0 9.7 Total 40.4 47.0 43.0 28.5 19.6 Men 41.0 46.1 44.5 34.7 26.9

Page 2 2010 Women 24.6 30.5 25.6 14.6 8.3 Total 33.0 38.5 35.0 23.9 15.6 Men 29.4 33.3 31.9 24.7 19.3

2025 Women 20.4 25.6 21.5 12.1 6.9 Total 25.0 29.5 26.7 18.0 11.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 Age (years) 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 37.4 35.1 40.3 48.1 33.0 Women 16.7 18.3 25.1 25.0 27.1 Daily use Men Women 34.9 30.1 34.5 41.3 ... 14.5 15.0 21.9 21.3 ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey

Knowledge attitudes and practice of active and passive smoking in Romania 2011 2011.pdf 15+ Knowledge, attitudes and practices about active and passive smoking in Romania 2009 15+ Studiu de evaluare a cunostintelor, atitudinilor si practicilor cu privire la fumatul activ 2008 15+si pasiv

Knowledge , Attitudes and Practices of the General Romanian Population Tobacco Use Provsionssmoking 2007 Regarding 15-59 . . and . the Legal . . . Tobacco

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2010 2009 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.2 25.2 18.4 Girls 10.1 15.4 10.4 Daily use Boys ... 18.0 ... Girls ... 10.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of Romania's population smoked (approximately 5,773,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 4,055,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 41% of men and about 22% of women smoked in Romania. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 29% for men and 18% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Romania adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Romania will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Russian Federation Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 54,887 55,577 55,378 53,498 51,853 50,689 Women 65,164 66,515 66,811 65,211 63,768 62,816 Both sexes 120,051 122,092 122,189 118,710 115,621 113,505

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 14.5 16.0 15.3 14.5 13.9 11.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 24.0 23.9 23.5 24.2 27.2 28.1

Lower 95% CI 53.8 51.8 51.3 47.2 41.9 35.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 67.6 64.1 61.3 59.3 56.9 54.4 42.9 85.4 75.5 74.0 73.1 75.6 75.9

Point estimate 19.4 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.2 13.6

Lower 95% CI 32.5 32.3 31.6 29.2 26.5 22.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 41.4 39.9 38.4 37.3 36.2 34.9 26.9 52.1 47.4 46.4 46.2 48.9 49.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 49,745,300 48,661,900 46,908,000 44,310,400 41,811,500 39,635,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 10.8 11.9 12.3 11.0 10.5 9.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 25.5 26.5 25.2 23.7 21.3 18.0

Lower 95% CI 43.0 43.9 40.8 39.1 34.5 29.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 58.4 55.5 53.3 51.1 49.1 46.8 37.3 73.9 68.1 64.1 64.1 64.1 63.9

Point estimate 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 10.9

Upper 95% CI 19.6 19.3 19.4 19.3 21.0 22.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.1 33.7 32.6 31.4 30.5 29.4 22.8 44.4 41.5 39.7 39.5 40.3 40.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 42,089,200 41,155,200 39,872,100 37,315,000 35,216,300 33,333,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Russian Federation Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 63.2 74.7 73.1 59.0 45.7 Women 28.9 28.6 20.1 8.3 4.0 Total 46.3 51.6 45.3 29.2 15.6 Men 58.1 67.9 65.9 55.3 41.0

Page 2 2010 Women 29.8 29.5 19.6 9.4 4.1 Total 44.2 48.5 41.3 28.4 15.0 Men 51.3 61.0 59.2 47.9 36.8

2025 Women 31.7 31.1 21.9 9.1 4.4 Total 41.7 46.1 39.5 24.9 13.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2008-09 Age (years) 18+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... 1.0 Women . . . Tobacco smoking 0.2 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 53.3 60.2 60.4 62.9 Women 16.1 21.7 15.5 13.9 Daily use Men Women ... 55.0 ... ... ... 16.3 ... ...

Survey name Health in Times of Transition Study Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Russia New Russia Barometer Survey

Prevalence of smoking in 8 countries of the former Soviet Union: results from the18+ Living Conditions, Health Study 2001 . . .Lifestyles . and . . Tobacco smoking 1996 18+ ... . . . Tobacco smoking

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2010 2004 2002 Age (years) 15-15 13-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 5.4 ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking 2.2 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.2 30.1 27.4 Girls 15.3 24.4 18.5 Daily use Boys 15.0 ... 20.1 Girls 9.0 ... 12.4

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 38% of Russian Federation's population smoked (approximately 46,908,000 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 35% of the population (approximately 39,635,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 61% of men and about 19% of women smoked in Russian Federation. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 54% for men and 19% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Russian Federation adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Russian Federation will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Saint Kitts and Nevis Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 16 18 19 20 21 22 Women 16 18 19 20 21 22 Both sexes 33 35 38 40 42 44

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Saint Kitts and Nevis Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 Age (years) 25-64 Smokeless use Men 0.3 Women 0.1 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 16.2 Women 1.1 Daily use Men Women 11.4 0.7

Survey name St Kitts STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 10.4 18.2 Girls 7.8 13.6 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Saint Kitts and Nevis.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2007, shows that around 16% of men and around 1% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Saint Kitts and Nevis. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Saint Kitts and Nevis adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Saint Lucia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 52 57 65 69 73 76 Women 55 61 68 73 77 81 Both sexes 106 118 133 142 150 157

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Saint Lucia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2011 2007 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.5 22.4 14.5 Girls 17.3 14.5 9.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

#N/A X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X

#N/A X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Saint Lucia.

If Saint Lucia adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 37 39 41 42 42 43 Women 37 38 40 41 42 43 Both sexes 74 78 80 83 84 86

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 1991 Age (years) 19+ Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.4 Women 3.5 Daily use Men Women 17.4 1.9

Survey name Risk factor survey in St. Vincent

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2011 2007 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 23.6 22.0 15.7 Girls 14.6 16.6 6.4 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 1991, shows that around 26% of men and around 4% of women aged 19+ smoked in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Saint Vincent and the Grenadines adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Samoa Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 54 56 59 62 66 71 Women 50 53 56 59 62 67 Both sexes 104 109 115 121 128 137

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 15.2 16.7 15.4 13.4 9.3 7.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 36.0 30.2 26.0 25.1 24.2 24.9

Lower 95% CI 40.9 37.9 36.1 27.7 22.8 16.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 62.1 54.1 46.7 40.2 35.2 30.9 32.7 88.1 69.2 59.7 52.2 52.0 48.7

Point estimate 25.6 23.0 20.6 18.7 17.1 15.7 14.4

Lower 95% CI 28.5 27.6 26.0 20.8 16.2 12.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 44.5 39.1 34.1 29.8 26.4 23.5 23.8 63.1 50.3 43.3 39.0 38.5 37.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 46,100 42,500 39,100 36,100 33,800 32,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 10.3 10.4 9.6 8.2 6.4 5.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 20.0 19.9 16.7 14.6 11.4 8.0

Lower 95% CI 28.9 28.8 23.4 20.6 16.2 10.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 49.2 42.6 36.6 31.8 27.8 24.4 25.6 69.8 58.3 47.4 44.4 41.4 38.1

Point estimate 18.3 16.4 14.9 13.4 12.2 11.2 10.4

Upper 95% CI 27.5 22.5 20.1 18.7 17.9 18.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.4 29.9 26.0 22.9 20.2 18.0 18.2 49.5 41.0 34.1 31.9 30.0 28.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 35,600 32,500 29,900 27,700 25,900 24,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Samoa Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 54.2 65.2 67.7 65.0 65.0 Women 22.5 26.2 27.7 27.3 27.7 Total 39.5 46.7 48.3 46.1 44.0 Men 40.4 48.8 50.6 48.7 49.2

Page 2 2010 Women 18.0 21.1 22.2 21.9 22.2 Total 29.7 35.5 37.1 35.3 33.5 Men 26.9 32.4 33.6 32.4 32.7

2025 Women 13.8 16.0 16.9 16.6 17.0 Total 20.6 24.8 25.6 24.6 23.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2009 2002 Age (years) 18-64 15-49 25-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 36.5 34.9 56.3 Women 13.7 15.3 21.8 Daily use Men Women 33.4 34.8 49.4 12.2 15.2 18.0

Survey name Samoa STEPS Samoa Demographic and Health Survey STEPS

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 52.2 25.8 Girls 30.2 20.4 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 34% of Samoa's population smoked (approximately 39,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 23% of the population (approximately 32,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 47% of men and about 21% of women smoked in Samoa. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 31% for men and 16% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Samoa adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Samoa will achieve the smoking component of the target.

San Marino Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 11 12 13 13 13 14 Women 11 12 13 13 13 14 Both sexes 22 25 26 26 27 27

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

San Marino Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2009 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 10.9 9.8 Girls 11.6 8.7 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for San Marino.

If San Marino adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Sao Tome and Principe Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 37 43 51 58 67 78 Women 41 46 54 61 70 81 Both sexes 78 90 104 119 137 159

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Sao Tome and Principe Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009 2008-09 Age (years) 25-64 15-49 Smokeless use Men 3.8 ... Women 1.9 Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Men 9.7 5.4 Women 1.7 1.6 Daily use Men Women 6.5 5.1 0.8 ...

Survey name Sao Tomé et Principe Enquête STEPS Sao Tomé et Principe Inquérito Demográfico e Sanitário

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 30.7 Girls 22.7 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Sao Tome and Principe.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2009, shows that around 10% of men and around 2% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Sao Tome and Principe. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Sao Tome and Principe adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Saudi Arabia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 6,926 9,469 11,097 12,956 14,934 16,635 Women 5,476 6,753 7,786 8,475 9,108 9,743 Both sexes 12,402 16,222 18,884 21,432 24,041 26,378

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.3

Lower 95% CI 16.1 18.1 19.1 20.4 19.3 18.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.1 23.2 25.9 28.8 32.2 36.1 18.1 27.5 28.8 32.3 38.6 46.2 55.1

Point estimate 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.0

Lower 95% CI 9.9 11.4 11.9 12.8 12.3 12.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 13.2 14.8 16.4 18.5 21.0 23.8 11.5 17.4 18.6 20.8 25.1 30.5 36.7

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,636,700 2,399,400 3,092,300 3,968,700 5,054,600 6,268,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 7.6 9.1 9.6 10.3 9.8 10.1

Lower 95% CI 12.9 14.9 15.7 16.6 15.5 15.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.1 20.1 22.4 24.9 28.0 31.3 15.7 23.3 26.1 28.7 34.1 40.8 49.6

Point estimate 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3

Upper 95% CI 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.0 12.5 13.9 15.7 18.0 20.4 9.7 14.4 16.5 18.1 21.8 26.6 32.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,363,200 2,031,600 2,626,000 3,370,200 4,336,300 5,372,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Saudi Arabia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 21.8 22.2 19.9 16.6 16.0 Women 2.8 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.8 Total 12.4 14.3 13.4 10.8 11.3 Men 26.9 27.4 24.4 20.8 19.9

Page 2 2010 Women 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.2 Total 15.1 17.6 16.8 13.7 12.5 Men 38.3 39.0 34.6 29.4 28.5

2025 Women 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.6 Total 24.9 27.1 22.8 18.0 15.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2006 2004 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 23.7 ... 24.2 18.8 ... Women 1.5 ... 1.4 7.4 ... Daily use Men Women ... 35.0 20.9 ... 21.1 ... 5.7 1.2 ... 0.9

Survey name Saudi Health Information Survey Study of Smoking Behaviours in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia WHO STEPwise approach to NCD Surveillance - Saudi Arabia

National cross-sectional study on coronary artery disease risk factors in Saudi Arabia 1995-00 30+ (the CADIS. study) .. Prevalence and determinants of smoking in three regions of Saudi1990-93 Arabia 15+ ...

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 4.8 ... Girls 1.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.2 20.2 Girls 9.1 10.7 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 16% of Saudi Arabia's population smoked (approximately 3,092,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 6,268,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 26% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Saudi Arabia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 36% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Saudi Arabia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Saudi Arabia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Senegal Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,608 3,019 3,485 4,071 4,767 5,583 Women 2,805 3,282 3,814 4,414 5,117 5,934 Both sexes 5,413 6,301 7,300 8,486 9,884 11,516

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8

Lower 95% CI 12.1 14.5 16.2 17.7 17.5 17.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.3 19.0 21.1 23.5 26.0 28.9 14.8 22.4 23.3 25.8 29.8 34.9 43.4

Point estimate 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6

Lower 95% CI 6.3 7.3 8.0 8.7 8.6 8.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.1 9.7 10.5 11.6 12.8 14.2 7.4 11.9 12.0 13.0 14.8 17.3 21.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 490,400 609,800 769,700 987,700 1,265,000 1,637,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.5

Lower 95% CI 10.3 12.0 13.1 13.6 13.4 13.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.9 16.3 18.1 20.0 22.3 24.8 12.7 19.4 20.8 23.8 26.9 32.4 38.4

Point estimate 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5

Upper 95% CI 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 7.7 8.2 9.0 9.9 11.0 12.2 6.3 10.2 10.6 11.9 13.3 16.0 18.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 419,400 518,400 657,600 836,300 1,083,500 1,402,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Senegal Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 14.9 20.1 20.1 14.7 11.9 Women 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 Total 8.1 10.3 10.2 7.7 6.1 Men 18.1 24.3 24.3 17.8 14.4

Page 2 2010 Women 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 Total 9.4 12.1 11.5 8.5 6.8 Men 24.4 33.0 32.8 24.2 19.5

2025 Women 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total 12.5 16.6 15.6 10.8 8.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15-49 15-49 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 17.7 ... 22.2 Women 0.2 0.4 1.7 Daily use Men Women ... ... 19.8 ... ... 1.0

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Senegal

Enquête Démographique et de Santé à Indicateurs Multiples (EDS-MICS) 2010-11 2005 2003

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2013 2007 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.6 ... ... Girls 1.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.9 20.4 9.8 Girls 6.2 9.6 3.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 11% of Senegal's population smoked (approximately 769,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 14% of the population (approximately 1,637,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 21% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Senegal. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 29% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 55 - 69. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Senegal adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Senegal will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Serbia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,987 3,950 3,883 3,839 3,773 3,685 Women 4,210 4,201 4,137 4,090 4,023 3,937 Both sexes 8,198 8,150 8,020 7,929 7,796 7,622

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 28.6 31.0 29.8 26.0 24.5 20.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 49.4 46.8 46.7 46.1 49.6 49.4

Lower 95% CI 42.0 39.5 36.8 31.1 26.4 21.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 53.8 49.3 45.5 42.2 39.0 36.1 31.9 67.4 59.0 56.6 53.4 51.4 50.7

Point estimate 39.0 38.1 37.2 36.4 35.5 34.6 26.0

Lower 95% CI 35.1 35.1 33.2 28.5 25.4 21.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.2 43.5 41.2 39.2 37.2 35.3 28.9 58.2 52.7 51.5 49.6 50.5 50.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,787,200 3,547,700 3,305,600 3,108,800 2,899,700 2,692,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 20.9 22.7 21.9 20.7 19.6 17.6

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 26.3 26.7 24.7 23.5 20.7 18.4

Lower 95% CI 32.0 30.9 27.7 26.4 21.9 19.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 43.6 40.0 37.1 34.1 31.5 29.2 26.0 56.6 49.5 45.5 43.9 40.8 40.2

Point estimate 30.3 29.4 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.7 20.0

Upper 95% CI 38.5 36.8 35.1 35.7 36.4 38.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.8 34.5 32.7 31.0 29.3 27.9 22.9 47.3 43.0 40.1 39.7 38.5 39.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 3,014,200 2,814,900 2,623,700 2,458,300 2,286,800 2,127,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Serbia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 57.5 60.8 57.9 42.5 31.5 Women 46.0 47.5 43.7 27.0 17.8 Total 51.8 54.2 50.8 34.3 23.3 Men 49.3 52.2 49.4 37.7 26.6

Page 2 2010 Women 44.9 46.4 42.3 27.7 17.0 Total 47.2 49.3 45.8 32.4 20.8 Men 40.0 42.3 40.2 29.8 21.7

2025 Women 43.5 45.0 41.2 25.8 16.6 Total 41.7 43.6 40.7 27.7 18.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2011 2010 2006 2000 Age (years) 18+ 18+ 18+ 20+ 20+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 42.8 43.6 42.1 38.1 ... Women 34.8 39.6 42.1 29.9 ... Daily use Men Women 38.1 36.1 36.5 32.5 46.0 28.1 31.7 31.6 23.7 30.9

Survey name Serbia Public Opinion Poll Serbia Public Opinion Poll Serbia Public Opinion Poll National Health Survey Serbia Health status and health needs in Serbia

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey ESPAD youth survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2011 2008 Age (years) 13-15 16-16 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 3.3 ... 1.6 Girls 2.1 Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking 0.7 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.7 20.0 10.8 Girls 13.3 19.0 9.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 41% of Serbia's population smoked (approximately 3,305,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 35% of the population (approximately 2,692,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 46% of men and about 37% of women smoked in Serbia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 36% for men and 35% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Serbia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Serbia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Seychelles Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 28 33 36 37 37 38 Women 29 33 35 36 37 39 Both sexes 57 66 71 73 75 77

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 7.7 7.0 6.2 5.4 4.7 4.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 16.0 13.9 12.9 12.3 12.2 12.3

Lower 95% CI 34.7 33.3 31.9 27.5 25.6 19.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 48.0 46.1 44.6 42.9 42.1 41.0 31.2 62.9 59.7 59.0 59.4 63.5 64.2

Point estimate 11.3 10.4 9.5 8.8 8.1 7.6 6.7

Lower 95% CI 21.0 20.0 19.3 16.6 15.2 11.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.3 28.1 27.4 26.0 25.1 24.2 19.2 39.1 36.6 36.4 36.1 37.9 38.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 16,800 18,500 19,400 19,000 18,800 18,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 13.6 13.1 12.6 11.8 9.5 7.7

Lower 95% CI 23.0 21.9 20.8 19.8 15.9 13.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.5 36.0 34.8 33.9 32.9 32.4 24.4 52.0 48.9 48.2 50.2 51.2 53.4

Point estimate 8.2 7.5 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.5 4.8

Upper 95% CI 12.2 11.5 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.7 21.6 21.2 20.3 19.4 18.8 14.8 31.8 30.0 29.7 30.3 30.4 31.2

Estimated no. of daily smokers 13,000 14,200 15,000 14,800 14,500 14,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Seychelles Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 47.7 47.5 47.8 49.2 50.5 Women 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.3 Total 29.7 29.4 30.3 28.6 26.3 Men 44.3 44.2 44.5 45.8 47.0

Page 2 2010 Women 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.6 Total 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.6 23.0 Men 40.5 40.4 40.7 41.8 42.9

2025 Women 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.7 Total 24.3 24.5 24.7 23.7 21.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2004 1994 Age (years) 25-64 25-64 25-64 Smokeless use Men 0.3 <1% <1% Women 0.4 Tobacco smoking <1% Tobacco smoking <1% Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 35.3 37.2 39.3 Women 9.0 6.3 7.9 Daily use Men Women 28.8 30.9 34.8 5.8 4.0 6.5

Survey name The Seychelles Heart Study IV The Seychelles Heart Study III The Seychelles Heart Study II

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007 2007 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 5.2 ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking 5.4 Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.1 23.2 29.9 Girls 10.8 20.0 23.9 Daily use Boys 2.6 ... 2.9 Girls 0.7 ... 1.0

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 27% of Seychelles's population smoked (approximately 19,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 18,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 45% of men and about 10% of women smoked in Seychelles. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 41% for men and 8% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 70+; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Seychelles adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Seychelles will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Sierra Leone Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,162 1,445 1,642 1,849 2,087 2,329 Women 1,200 1,490 1,685 1,887 2,118 2,355 Both sexes 2,362 2,935 3,327 3,736 4,205 4,684

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 10.7 9.9 8.5 6.6 4.9 3.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 32.4 26.0 21.4 18.2 15.9 14.8

Lower 95% CI 25.0 30.8 35.9 40.0 41.4 45.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 38.1 43.4 49.9 57.7 66.2 74.1 34.9 51.3 55.3 63.7 79.4 95.0 100.0

Point estimate 20.9 17.2 14.4 12.1 10.2 8.7 10.1

Lower 95% CI 17.7 20.2 22.0 23.1 23.0 24.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.4 30.1 31.9 34.7 38.0 41.2 22.3 41.7 40.4 42.3 48.5 55.2 57.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 693,400 883,500 1,062,200 1,295,400 1,597,400 1,930,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 6.5 6.2 5.0 4.1 2.9 2.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 12.4 14.1 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.6

Lower 95% CI 18.5 22.3 26.4 27.4 28.3 29.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.1 33.1 38.2 44.1 51.2 59.2 26.7 41.3 44.8 52.0 63.4 76.6 94.0

Point estimate 13.7 11.4 9.4 7.9 6.7 5.7 6.6

Upper 95% CI 21.8 17.4 14.1 12.6 11.2 10.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.3 22.1 23.6 25.8 28.8 32.3 16.5 31.4 30.9 32.8 37.7 43.7 52.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 502,400 648,200 785,800 964,600 1,210,200 1,512,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Sierra Leone Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 31.5 40.0 45.2 42.5 42.3 Women 20.2 21.7 21.3 19.8 19.9 Total 25.8 30.7 32.9 31.0 30.9 Men 41.0 52.2 58.9 55.1 54.9

Page 2 2010 Women 13.9 14.9 14.7 13.7 13.7 Total 27.4 33.5 36.1 33.5 33.9 Men 62.8 77.1 83.9 80.0 78.4

2025 Women 8.4 9.0 8.9 8.2 8.2 Total 35.7 43.1 46.0 42.3 41.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men ... Women 12.1 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.1 37.1 Women 10.5 6.0 Daily use Men Women 39.5 36.9 7.5 ...

Survey name Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Survey

The Prevalence of the Common Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases in Sierra Leone 2.9 2009 25-64 2008 15-49

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Western Area) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 14.1 Girls 19.1 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.3 Girls 24.1 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of Sierra Leone's population smoked (approximately 1,062,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 41% of the population (approximately 1,930,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 50% of men and about 14% of women smoked in Sierra Leone. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 74% for men and 9% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Sierra Leone adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Sierra Leone will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Slovakia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,074 2,153 2,220 2,229 2,221 2,220 Women 2,252 2,335 2,392 2,399 2,391 2,390 Both sexes 4,326 4,488 4,612 4,628 4,612 4,610

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 12.4 11.1 10.4 8.5 6.8 5.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 30.1 26.6 25.7 25.6 26.1 25.8

Lower 95% CI 32.5 31.7 27.4 22.9 18.3 14.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.3 43.5 40.9 38.7 36.8 35.3 28.6 60.1 56.4 54.6 56.2 59.5 62.5

Point estimate 20.8 19.2 17.7 16.5 15.6 14.5 12.4

Lower 95% CI 22.0 21.0 18.6 15.4 12.3 9.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 33.0 30.9 28.9 27.2 25.8 24.5 20.2 44.5 40.9 39.6 40.3 42.2 43.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,428,800 1,384,800 1,331,200 1,258,500 1,190,400 1,130,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 8.4 8.4 6.8 5.7 4.7 3.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 16.1 15.3 13.2 11.0 8.5 7.2

Lower 95% CI 24.5 22.7 20.0 16.7 12.6 11.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.3 34.2 32.3 30.5 29.0 27.9 22.6 49.9 45.5 45.4 46.9 47.4 53.2

Point estimate 14.9 13.7 12.7 11.9 11.2 10.5 8.9

Upper 95% CI 21.5 20.4 19.0 18.9 19.4 19.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.2 23.5 22.1 20.9 19.8 18.9 15.5 35.1 32.4 31.7 32.4 32.9 35.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,088,500 1,056,200 1,020,700 965,400 911,900 870,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Slovakia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 52.0 50.7 46.1 36.5 30.3 Women 24.8 23.7 20.7 16.1 14.1 Total 38.7 37.3 33.2 25.1 19.9 Men 46.5 45.4 41.0 33.0 27.0

Page 2 2010 Women 21.6 20.6 17.8 14.1 12.2 Total 34.3 33.3 29.3 22.8 17.3 Men 41.5 40.5 36.9 29.0 24.3

2025 Women 18.4 17.5 15.3 11.8 10.4 Total 30.3 29.3 26.2 19.9 15.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2006 2003 Age (years) 15-64 18+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 43.5 49.0 40.8 Women 26.3 28.0 23.0 Daily use Men Women ... 34.0 32.8 ... 16.0 14.3

Survey name National population study on drug consumption (NMCD) Drug addiction survey World Health Survey, Slovakia

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 29.7 20.5 28.5 Girls 27.6 16.6 24.5 Daily use Boys ... 15.0 ... Girls ... 9.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of Slovakia's population smoked (approximately 1,331,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 25% of the population (approximately 1,130,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 41% of men and about 18% of women smoked in Slovakia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 35% for men and 15% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Slovakia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Slovakia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Slovenia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 810 833 871 879 882 889 Women 864 884 895 900 900 906 Both sexes 1,674 1,717 1,766 1,779 1,783 1,794

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 16.6 15.3 13.6 11.7 9.7 7.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 25.4 22.2 21.1 20.0 20.1 19.0

Lower 95% CI 23.6 21.2 19.0 15.5 12.3 9.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.3 26.1 23.5 20.9 18.8 17.0 16.5 36.0 31.0 28.9 26.9 25.9 25.3

Point estimate 20.8 18.9 17.2 15.6 14.3 13.2 12.0

Lower 95% CI 20.0 18.2 16.3 13.6 11.0 8.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.9 22.4 20.3 18.2 16.5 15.1 14.2 30.5 26.5 24.9 23.4 23.0 22.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 416,900 384,400 358,700 324,000 294,600 270,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 12.0 11.2 10.2 8.7 7.2 5.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 14.9 13.7 12.3 10.5 8.5 7.0

Lower 95% CI 17.9 16.4 14.5 12.4 9.9 8.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.2 22.6 20.0 18.0 16.1 14.4 14.0 33.2 29.7 25.9 24.1 22.3 21.7

Point estimate 17.2 15.6 14.2 13.0 11.9 10.9 9.9

Upper 95% CI 22.1 20.1 18.5 17.5 17.1 16.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.1 19.0 17.1 15.5 14.0 12.6 11.9 27.5 24.8 22.1 20.8 19.7 19.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 352,600 326,100 301,300 275,200 249,200 226,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Slovenia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 34.1 33.7 30.0 21.0 18.1 Women 27.5 26.9 22.4 13.2 9.4 Total 30.9 30.3 26.3 16.9 12.3 Men 28.1 27.8 24.5 17.5 15.0

Page 2 2010 Women 23.7 23.2 19.1 11.6 8.0 Total 26.0 25.6 21.9 14.5 10.6 Men 21.4 21.1 18.7 13.1 11.4

2025 Women 19.4 18.9 15.6 9.3 6.5 Total 20.4 20.0 17.2 11.2 8.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2011-12 2008 2007 2004 Age (years) 25-64 15-64 25-74 15+ 25-64 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 24.8 26.8 19.9 28.2 24.9 Women 20.3 21.1 14.9 21.7 20.4 Daily use Men Women ... 22.2 ... 22.4 ... ... 15.9 ... 15.5 ...

Survey name CINDI Health Monitor Survey Survey on the Use of Tobacco, Alcohol and Other Drugs CINDI Health Monitor Survey European Health Interview Survey Slovenia CINDI Health Monitor Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2010 2007 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 17.4 19.9 16.9 Girls 21.5 18.9 24.2 Daily use Boys ... 14.0 ... Girls ... 13.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 20% of Slovenia's population smoked (approximately 358,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 15% of the population (approximately 270,600 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of men and about 17% of women smoked in Slovenia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 17% for men and 13% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 15 - 24; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Slovenia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Slovenia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Solomon Islands Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 122 139 156 177 201 228 Women 117 136 156 176 199 225 Both sexes 239 275 312 353 400 453

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Solomon Islands Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2005-06 Age (years) 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 56.1 Women 26.1 Daily use Men Women 43.4 15.3

Survey name Solomon Islands NCD Risk Factors STEPS Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2008 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 28.3 43.9 Girls 18.4 37.0 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Solomon Islands.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2005-06, shows that around 56% of men and around 26% of women aged 15-64 smoked in Solomon Islands. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Solomon Islands adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Somalia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,916 2,176 2,480 2,921 3,424 4,025 Women 1,986 2,251 2,560 3,006 3,519 4,126 Both sexes 3,902 4,427 5,040 5,927 6,943 8,152

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Somalia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Somaliland) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Somaliland) 2007 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.5 18.6 Girls 12.3 22.4 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Somalia.

If Somalia adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

South Africa Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 14,575 16,051 17,275 18,104 18,958 20,069 Women 15,483 17,315 18,890 19,708 20,468 21,430 Both sexes 30,058 33,365 36,165 37,813 39,426 41,499

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 9.4 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.3 2.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 15.5 11.8 9.8 8.3 7.1 6.3

Lower 95% CI 27.6 26.2 25.6 23.9 20.0 17.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.6 33.2 32.0 31.1 30.4 29.6 22.4 44.1 39.8 39.7 40.7 42.3 45.2

Point estimate 12.2 9.7 7.8 6.4 5.2 4.2 5.5

Lower 95% CI 18.2 16.7 15.5 13.9 11.3 9.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.1 21.0 19.4 18.2 17.3 16.5 13.6 29.4 25.3 24.1 23.8 24.0 25.1

Estimated no. of current smokers 6,931,800 7,008,300 7,001,400 6,891,800 6,827,500 6,840,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 8.0 6.7 5.3 4.1 2.9 2.1

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 15.0 14.3 13.1 11.5 9.5 7.9

Lower 95% CI 22.5 22.4 21.7 19.5 16.7 14.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.6 28.1 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.2 19.0 37.4 33.4 33.4 34.8 35.6 36.5

Point estimate 10.4 8.3 6.7 5.5 4.4 3.6 4.7

Upper 95% CI 13.3 10.3 8.3 7.0 6.0 5.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 19.7 17.8 16.5 15.6 14.7 14.0 11.5 25.0 21.4 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.3

Estimated no. of daily smokers 5,924,400 5,947,300 5,964,400 5,881,600 5,791,700 5,828,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

South Africa Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 28.3 36.2 40.7 36.8 31.6 Women 8.9 11.7 15.5 15.1 11.9 Total 18.8 24.0 27.1 24.8 19.3 Men 26.2 33.3 37.5 33.9 28.9

Page 2 2010 Women 5.7 7.4 10.0 9.7 7.5 Total 15.9 20.6 22.6 19.9 15.0 Men 23.7 30.7 34.2 30.7 26.4

2025 Women 3.0 4.0 5.3 5.1 4.0 Total 13.4 17.4 20.1 16.0 11.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2007 2002-03 2003 1998 Age (years) 15+ 16+ 18+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... 1.4 ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking 8.4 . . . . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 27.8 ... 36.0 35.1 42.3 Women 7.2 ... 10.2 10.2 10.7 Daily use Men Women 25.0 ... 27.1 31.7 36.7 6.3 ... 8.2 9.0 9.4

Survey name National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey South African Social Attitude Survey World Health Survey, South Africa South Africa Demographic and Health Survey South Africa Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey South African National Youth Risk Behaviour Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2011 2008 Age (years) 13-15 14-14 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 9.1 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 6.9 Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.3 15.3 29.3 Girls 19.0 11.0 20.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 19% of South Africa's population smoked (approximately 7,001,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 16% of the population (approximately 6,840,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of men and about 8% of women smoked in South Africa. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 30% for men and 4% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If South Africa adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, South Africa will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

South Sudan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,815 2,223 2,816 3,533 4,126 4,746 Women 1,864 2,276 2,867 3,582 4,169 4,780 Both sexes 3,679 4,499 5,683 7,115 8,295 9,525

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

South Sudan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name No known surveys Age (years) Smokeless use Boys Girls Tobacco type Current use Boys Girls Daily use Boys Girls

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

X X

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for South Sudan.

If South Sudan adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Spain Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 16,660 18,128 19,258 19,562 19,885 20,287 Women 17,670 18,970 20,031 20,313 20,615 20,987 Both sexes 34,330 37,097 39,288 39,875 40,500 41,274

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 22.0 21.3 19.6 17.2 15.0 12.3

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 34.8 32.1 29.0 27.1 26.1 24.9

Lower 95% CI 34.8 31.5 27.2 23.1 19.2 15.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 43.8 38.7 34.2 29.9 26.3 22.9 23.9 55.1 46.7 40.9 36.6 34.2 31.0

Point estimate 28.3 26.6 24.4 22.3 20.3 18.5 17.1

Lower 95% CI 28.2 26.3 23.3 20.1 17.1 13.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.8 32.5 29.2 26.0 23.2 20.7 20.4 44.7 39.2 34.8 31.8 30.1 27.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 12,297,600 12,061,400 11,473,600 10,378,900 9,414,500 8,528,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 18.5 18.3 16.2 14.4 12.1 10.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 24.1 22.3 20.0 16.9 13.9 11.5

Lower 95% CI 30.0 26.5 24.0 19.4 15.8 12.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 37.6 33.3 29.4 25.9 22.6 19.7 20.6 46.2 39.7 36.3 31.8 29.6 27.3

Point estimate 23.7 22.2 20.5 18.7 17.1 15.5 14.4

Upper 95% CI 29.4 26.9 24.9 23.5 22.6 21.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.4 27.6 24.9 22.2 19.8 17.6 17.4 37.6 33.2 30.5 27.6 26.0 24.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 10,451,900 10,247,800 9,768,100 8,865,200 8,019,100 7,249,600

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Spain Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 44.9 51.9 50.3 35.0 20.4 Women 39.9 41.4 33.3 13.2 4.3 Total 42.4 46.7 41.7 23.6 10.7 Men 35.0 40.8 39.4 27.7 15.4

Page 2 2010 Women 35.3 36.7 29.5 12.0 3.6 Total 35.2 38.8 34.5 19.6 8.4 Men 24.6 28.6 27.5 19.5 10.8

2025 Women 30.2 31.4 24.7 10.3 3.0 Total 27.3 30.0 26.1 14.8 6.2

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011-12 2009 2006 2002-03 2001 Age (years) 15+ 16+ 16+ 18+ 16+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 31.4 35.3 35.3 40.0 ... Women 22.8 24.6 23.9 26.8 ... Daily use Men Women 27.9 31.2 31.6 34.1 39.1 20.2 21.3 21.5 23.7 24.6

Survey name Encuesta Nacional de Salud Encuesta Europea de Salud de España Encuesta Nacional de Salud de España Encuesta Nacional de Salud de España Encuesta Nacional de Salud de España

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 28.1 14.8 23.0 Girls 36.4 22.6 29.3 Daily use Boys ... 11.0 ... Girls ... 16.0 ...

Survey name Encuesta Estatal sobre uso de drogas en enseñanzas secundarias 2012 (ESTUDES) 14-18 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2010 15-15 Encuesta Estatal sobre uso de drogas en enseñanzas secundarias 2010 (ESTUDES) 14-18

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of Spain's population smoked (approximately 11,473,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 21% of the population (approximately 8,528,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 34% of men and about 24% of women smoked in Spain. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 23% for men and 19% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Spain adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Spain will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Sri Lanka Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 6,818 7,311 7,540 7,787 8,108 8,446 Women 6,966 7,568 8,004 8,400 8,810 9,222 Both sexes 13,784 14,879 15,544 16,186 16,918 17,668

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3

Lower 95% CI 23.4 24.0 20.5 16.3 12.3 9.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.5 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.7 20.6 38.1 35.8 38.0 42.4 48.0 54.0

Point estimate 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4

Lower 95% CI 12.2 12.2 10.1 7.9 5.9 4.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.0 15.2 14.6 14.2 14.0 13.8 10.2 20.1 18.3 18.9 20.7 23.2 26.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,204,800 2,254,500 2,264,700 2,299,500 2,369,000 2,433,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 8.8 8.7 7.6 6.4 4.7 3.5

Lower 95% CI 16.8 17.2 15.3 13.2 9.6 7.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.5 22.9 22.6 22.4 22.2 22.1 15.8 30.3 28.5 30.5 34.9 37.0 41.5

Point estimate 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4

Upper 95% CI 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 12.3 11.7 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.6 7.9 16.0 14.6 15.2 17.0 17.9 19.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,699,700 1,734,700 1,744,000 1,769,400 1,817,600 1,875,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Sri Lanka Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 19.1 28.6 39.5 40.2 36.3 Women 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 Total 10.3 15.0 20.4 20.7 18.8 Men 17.8 26.4 36.9 37.5 33.9

Page 2 2010 Women 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 Total 9.1 13.2 18.3 18.1 15.5 Men 16.8 25.4 35.0 35.5 32.3

2025 Women 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total 8.5 12.5 16.8 16.6 13.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2006 2003 2001 Age (years) 15-64 18+ 15+ Smokeless use Men 24.9 ... ... Women 6.9 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 29.9 39.0 25.7 Women 0.4 2.6 1.7 Daily use Men Women 22.8 24.5 ... 0.3 1.6 ...

Survey name Sri Lanka STEPS Survey World Health Survey, Sri Lanka Sri Lanka: sentinel tobacco use prevalence survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2007 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 13.0 9.6 ... Girls 4.1 Any tobacco use 3.9 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.7 12.4 9.5 Girls 5.4 5.8 6.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of Sri Lanka's population smoked (approximately 2,264,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 14% of the population (approximately 2,433,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Sri Lanka. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 29% for men and 0% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Sri Lanka adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Sri Lanka will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Sudan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 7,777 8,932 10,285 11,734 13,588 15,570 Women 7,828 9,008 10,375 11,838 13,709 15,711 Both sexes 15,604 17,939 20,660 23,572 27,296 31,281

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Sudan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2009 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 10.9 9.5 18.0 Girls 6.6 4.3 10.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

#N/A

#N/A X

#N/A

#N/A

X

#N/A

#N/A X

#N/A

#N/A

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Sudan.

If Sudan adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Suriname Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 163 175 187 200 213 224 Women 161 175 188 203 218 229 Both sexes 324 350 375 403 431 452

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Suriname Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2007-08 Age (years) 25-64 12-65 Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 34.0 38.4 Women 6.6 9.9 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ...

Survey name STEPS Survey Suriname National Household Drug Prevalence Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2009 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 6.2 ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use 4.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.4 20.7 12.6 Girls 8.5 16.6 8.6 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Suriname.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2013, shows that around 34% of men and around 7% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Suriname. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Suriname adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Swaziland Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 276 307 353 394 429 466 Women 313 336 377 412 438 468 Both sexes 589 643 730 806 867 934

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.1

Lower 95% CI 10.6 12.2 12.1 11.6 11.2 10.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.8 19.1 20.8 11.6 19.3 20.0 21.1 24.5 29.6 34.7

Point estimate 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6

Lower 95% CI 5.9 6.7 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.4 11.2 6.5 11.3 11.5 11.9 13.6 16.2 18.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 50,800 57,200 67,300 78,400 89,800 104,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.8

Lower 95% CI 7.2 7.8 7.8 7.4 6.8 5.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.4 8.0 14.1 14.5 15.6 17.5 20.6 23.8

Point estimate 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2

Upper 95% CI 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.2 7.8 4.5 8.3 8.3 8.8 9.8 11.4 13.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 35,300 39,500 46,700 54,300 62,300 72,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Swaziland Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 12.8 15.3 18.0 17.9 16.9 Women 2.5 2.7 3.4 4.1 5.1 Total 7.5 8.4 10.0 10.8 9.8 Men 14.3 16.9 20.0 19.9 18.9

Page 2 2010 Women 1.9 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.9 Total 8.2 9.4 10.5 10.6 10.0 Men 17.5 21.1 24.5 24.5 23.2

2025 Women 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.8 Total 9.5 11.5 13.8 11.6 10.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2006-07 2007 2003 Age (years) 15-49 25-64 18+ Smokeless use Men ... 2.6 ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking 0.8 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 13.8 12.9 13.8 Women 1.1 2.2 3.3 Daily use Men Women ... 11.1 9.9 ... 1.5 2.1

Survey name Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey Swaziland STEPS NCD Risk Factor Survey World Health Survey, Swaziland

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2009 2005 2001 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.0 ... ... Girls 5.0 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.8 14.7 16.5 Girls 8.6 9.0 7.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 9% of Swaziland's population smoked (approximately 67,300 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 11% of the population (approximately 104,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 17% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Swaziland. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 21% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Swaziland adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Swaziland will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Sweden Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,548 3,670 3,876 3,971 4,078 4,204 Women 3,689 3,788 3,957 4,043 4,151 4,287 Both sexes 7,237 7,458 7,834 8,014 8,229 8,491

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 24.9 22.6 18.5 16.0 12.8 9.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 40.3 33.3 27.2 23.6 21.0 18.2

Lower 95% CI 24.9 22.3 19.8 16.4 13.5 10.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.8 27.9 23.8 20.3 17.3 14.8 16.7 40.3 32.6 28.6 24.3 21.6 19.0

Point estimate 32.9 27.7 23.3 19.6 16.5 13.8 16.3

Lower 95% CI 24.9 22.5 19.1 16.2 13.1 9.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.9 27.8 23.5 19.9 16.9 14.3 16.5 40.3 33.0 27.9 23.9 21.3 18.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,377,400 2,073,200 1,844,600 1,598,500 1,390,300 1,213,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 15.7 13.3 11.2 8.6 7.0 5.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 14.3 12.4 10.4 8.2 6.7 5.1

Lower 95% CI 12.9 11.4 9.6 7.8 6.3 4.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 15.9 13.6 11.5 9.9 8.5 7.3 8.1 19.4 16.4 14.0 12.1 11.0 9.5

Point estimate 19.3 16.2 13.7 11.5 9.7 8.1 9.6

Upper 95% CI 23.8 19.5 16.2 13.9 12.6 11.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 17.6 14.9 12.6 10.7 9.1 7.7 8.8 21.6 18.0 15.1 13.0 11.8 10.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,276,100 1,112,800 987,900 858,000 749,200 654,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Sweden Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 28.7 31.6 37.8 37.0 23.6 Women 34.6 34.6 38.9 34.6 19.6 Total 31.6 33.1 38.3 35.8 21.3 Men 20.9 23.0 27.4 26.6 17.2

Page 2 2010 Women 24.5 24.5 27.4 24.2 13.8 Total 22.7 23.8 27.4 25.4 15.2 Men 13.2 14.5 17.3 16.8 10.8

2025 Women 14.8 14.9 16.7 14.7 8.4 Total 14.0 14.7 17.0 15.8 9.5

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2012-13 2012 2010-11 2011 Age (years) 16-84 16+ 16-84 16+ 16-84 Smokeless use Men 23.0 ... 25.0 ... 24.0 Women 7.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 6.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 7.0 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 23.0 ... 22.0 ... 23.0 Women 20.0 ... 22.0 ... 21.0 Daily use Men Women 11.0 11.2 10.0 12.5 10.0 11.0 12.4 12.0 14.3 12.0

Survey name Nationella folkhälsoenkäten (National Survey on Public Health) Swedish Living Conditions Survey Nationella folkhälsoenkäten (National Survey on Public Health) Swedish Living Conditions Survey Nationella folkhälsoenkäten (National Survey on Public Health)

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Alcohol and drug use among students (Skolelevers drogvanor) Alcohol and drug use among students (Skolelevers drogvanor) Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2013 2011 2010 Age (years) 15-16 14-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys 9.6 12.6 ... Girls 2.0 Any tobacco use 3.5 Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.5 23.2 12.6 Girls 16.9 26.9 15.3 Daily use Boys ... ... 7.0 Girls ... ... 9.0

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Sweden's population smoked (approximately 1,844,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 14% of the population (approximately 1,213,900 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of men and about 23% of women smoked in Sweden. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 15% for men and 14% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 40 - 54. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Sweden adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Sweden will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Switzerland Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,859 3,007 3,248 3,441 3,602 3,757 Women 3,058 3,196 3,403 3,589 3,748 3,905 Both sexes 5,916 6,202 6,652 7,030 7,350 7,662

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 20.4 18.0 16.4 14.6 12.4 10.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 28.4 25.4 23.0 21.6 20.1 19.0

Lower 95% CI 28.6 25.9 23.0 20.6 17.8 15.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.1 30.7 27.9 25.5 23.3 21.1 19.5 40.5 36.2 32.7 30.5 28.8 27.0

Point estimate 24.1 21.8 19.7 17.8 16.1 14.5 13.8

Lower 95% CI 24.4 21.8 19.6 17.5 15.0 13.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.9 26.1 23.7 21.6 19.6 17.7 16.6 34.2 30.6 27.7 26.0 24.4 22.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,711,600 1,619,700 1,576,700 1,516,200 1,442,700 1,359,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 16.8 15.6 13.8 12.3 10.8 8.9

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 19.2 17.9 15.9 14.1 12.4 10.4

Lower 95% CI 21.7 20.3 18.2 16.0 14.0 11.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 26.3 23.8 21.5 19.7 17.9 16.2 15.1 31.6 28.4 25.5 23.7 22.4 21.1

Point estimate 20.7 18.7 16.9 15.3 13.9 12.4 11.8

Upper 95% CI 24.4 21.8 19.6 18.3 17.4 16.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 23.4 21.2 19.1 17.5 15.9 14.3 13.4 27.9 25.0 22.5 20.9 19.9 18.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,384,700 1,313,200 1,273,600 1,226,900 1,165,700 1,092,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Switzerland Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 33.1 43.4 36.0 26.8 17.8 Women 25.9 32.4 28.2 18.1 8.8 Total 29.6 37.9 32.1 22.3 12.2 Men 27.8 36.2 30.1 22.2 14.8

Page 2 2010 Women 21.6 26.8 23.5 15.0 7.2 Total 24.8 31.5 26.8 18.5 10.3 Men 21.7 28.2 23.3 17.3 11.5

2025 Women 16.6 20.5 17.9 11.5 5.5 Total 19.1 24.3 20.6 14.4 8.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ 14-65 Smokeless use Men 4.2 5.0 ... 4.0 3.9 Women 1.2 Tobacco smoking 1.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 1.3 Tobacco smoking 0.8 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 29.7 29.3 32.4 29.0 30.0 Women 20.6 22.8 24.2 20.9 24.0 Daily use Men Women 21.1 20.7 ... 21.1 21.0 14.3 17.3 ... 15.7 17.0

Survey name Addiction Monitoring survey Addiction Monitoring survey Enquête suisse sur la santé Addiction Monitoring survey Tabaco Monitoring survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Health Behaviour in School-aged Children 2010 2006 2002 Age (years) 15-15 15-15 15-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 18.7 15.0 25.4 Girls 15.0 15.0 24.1 Daily use Boys 13.0 ... 17.6 Girls 10.0 ... 16.6

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Switzerland's population smoked (approximately 1,576,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 18% of the population (approximately 1,359,000 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of men and about 20% of women smoked in Switzerland. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 21% for men and 15% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Switzerland adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Switzerland will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Tajikistan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,753 2,089 2,434 2,728 2,991 3,325 Women 1,780 2,106 2,454 2,775 3,066 3,428 Both sexes 3,533 4,196 4,888 5,503 6,057 6,752

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Tajikistan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men ... Women 0.2 Daily use Men Women ... 0.2

Survey name Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2006 2004 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... 4.6 Girls . . . Any tobacco use 2.2 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 3.0 6.8 Girls 1.4 2.8 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Tajikistan.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2012, shows that around 0% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Tajikistan. There were no data for men.

If Tajikistan adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Thailand Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 22,882 24,657 26,000 26,970 27,688 28,077 Women 24,389 26,257 27,565 28,667 29,514 30,011 Both sexes 47,272 50,914 53,565 55,636 57,202 58,087

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1

Lower 95% CI 39.1 37.9 37.8 35.3 32.6 30.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.8 45.5 44.4 42.7 41.0 39.5 31.1 54.4 52.4 51.9 50.7 50.2 49.7

Point estimate 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9

Lower 95% CI 20.2 19.6 19.5 18.2 16.7 15.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.0 21.1 20.3 16.1 28.1 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.9 25.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 11,416,200 11,954,300 12,288,400 12,261,400 12,060,200 11,780,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 16.8 16.3 15.6 15.5 13.6 12.7

Lower 95% CI 33.0 31.9 30.4 30.5 26.6 24.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 39.9 38.5 37.6 36.3 34.9 33.6 26.3 47.8 45.6 44.5 44.7 42.9 42.2

Point estimate 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4

Upper 95% CI 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.4 19.7 19.3 18.6 17.8 17.1 13.5 24.5 23.4 22.9 22.9 22.0 21.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 9,666,600 10,044,500 10,327,400 10,334,700 10,194,200 9,943,900

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Thailand Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 28.6 53.6 54.2 49.9 41.4 Women 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.6 5.8 Total 14.9 26.8 28.3 26.5 21.6 Men 26.7 49.9 50.2 46.5 38.1

Page 2 2010 Women 0.8 1.7 3.2 4.6 4.8 Total 13.8 25.5 25.9 24.5 19.3 Men 23.8 44.2 44.4 40.9 33.8

2025 Women 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.5 3.6 Total 12.3 22.6 23.1 21.1 16.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2014 2013 2011 2011 2007-09 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ 15+ Smokeless use Men ... ... 1.1 ... 1.3 Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 5.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 6.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 40.5 39.0 46.6 41.7 45.6 Women 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.1 3.1 Daily use Men Women 35.8 32.7 42.0 36.1 39.2 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.4

Survey name The Smoking and Drinking Behaviour Survey Health and Welfare Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey The Smoking and Drinking Behaviour Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Thailand

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name International Tobacco Control Survey-Southeast Asia (Thailand) International Tobacco Control Policy Thailand Youth Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2011 2009 Age (years) 13-17 13-17 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... 7.3 Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking 4.1 Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 25.5 27.8 26.9 Girls 1.4 1.5 9.2 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 23% of Thailand's population smoked (approximately 12,288,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 20% of the population (approximately 11,780,500 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 44% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Thailand. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 40% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Thailand adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Thailand will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

The FYR of Macedonia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 796 836 865 878 882 881 Women 797 841 871 886 892 893 Both sexes 1,593 1,677 1,736 1,763 1,774 1,774

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

The FYR of Macedonia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men Women Tobacco type Current use Men Women Daily use Men Women

Survey name No known surveys

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2010 2008 2007 Age (years) 15-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.0 11.9 8.8 Girls 9.3 11.7 12.3 Daily use Boys 9.0 ... ... Girls 7.0 ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A X

X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

If The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Timor-Leste Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 219 264 288 328 364 406 Women 210 254 281 319 353 393 Both sexes 429 518 569 647 716 799

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Timor-Leste Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009-10 Age (years) 15-49 Smokeless use Men 2.5 Women 1.9 Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 65.7 Women 2.9 Daily use Men Women 65.2 1.4

Survey name Timor-Leste Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2009 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 7.7 ... ... Girls 9.3 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 65.5 39.7 54.5 Girls 23.9 23.8 29.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Timor-Leste.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2009-10, shows that around 66% of men and around 3% of women aged 15-49 smoked in Timor-Leste. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Timor-Leste adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Togo Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,303 1,531 1,777 2,048 2,361 2,719 Women 1,410 1,635 1,876 2,142 2,448 2,801 Both sexes 2,713 3,166 3,653 4,190 4,810 5,520

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Togo Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men 5.1 Women 2.2 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 12.4 Women 1.8 Daily use Men Women 9.1 1.0

Survey name

Enquête STEPS au Togo sur les facteurs de risque des maladies 2010-11 non transmissibles 15-64

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2007 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 2.4 6.9 ... Girls 1.8 Any tobacco use 4.8 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.3 17.7 19.6 Girls 4.3 7.9 9.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Togo.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2010-11, shows that around 12% of men and around 2% of women aged 15-64 smoked in Togo. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Togo adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Tonga Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 30 31 32 33 36 39 Women 30 32 33 34 37 40 Both sexes 60 63 65 67 73 79

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 11.0 11.0 10.3 9.0 7.6 5.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 19.6 17.7 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1

Lower 95% CI 40.7 40.7 36.5 33.3 26.2 23.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 53.7 51.3 48.9 46.9 45.2 43.7 34.2 69.7 62.2 60.4 62.6 63.3 68.1

Point estimate 15.2 14.4 13.7 13.0 12.4 11.9 9.6

Lower 95% CI 25.9 25.6 23.1 21.0 16.8 14.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.4 32.5 30.9 29.6 28.7 27.7 21.6 44.7 39.6 38.2 39.6 40.4 43.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 20,800 20,300 20,100 19,900 20,900 21,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 8.6 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.4 5.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 20.8 21.7 20.3 18.3 15.9 13.7

Lower 95% CI 32.9 34.7 32.4 29.3 25.5 22.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 46.7 44.4 42.3 40.4 38.7 37.4 29.6 62.3 54.9 51.2 50.9 53.5 57.7

Point estimate 12.3 11.7 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.6 7.7

Upper 95% CI 16.3 14.8 13.4 13.5 13.5 14.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.5 27.7 26.3 25.1 24.2 23.4 18.4 39.3 34.5 31.9 31.9 33.3 35.9

Estimated no. of daily smokers 17,800 17,300 17,100 16,900 17,600 18,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Tonga Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 50.5 55.2 56.4 56.4 51.1 Women 15.3 16.5 14.9 13.1 13.7 Total 33.8 36.3 34.9 33.3 29.6 Men 45.9 50.2 51.2 51.1 46.1

Page 2 2010 Women 13.7 14.8 13.4 11.7 12.3 Total 30.1 32.2 31.9 30.2 26.1 Men 41.1 44.7 45.7 45.6 41.0

2025 Women 12.1 13.0 11.7 10.3 10.8 Total 27.2 29.6 28.1 26.7 22.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2011 2006 2004 1991 Age (years) 25-64 15-64 15-64 15-64 20+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 46.4 ... 45.9 46.2 62.4 Women 13.4 ... 12.0 16.3 14.2 Daily use Men Women 42.1 43.2 ... 41.9 ... 12.4 11.3 ... 13.8 ...

Survey name Tonga STEPS Tonga Census Tonga Census Tonga STEPS Survey Smoking in the Kingdom of Tonga

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2010 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 21.8 44.9 Girls 27.0 28.0 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 31% of Tonga's population smoked (approximately 20,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 28% of the population (approximately 21,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 49% of men and about 14% of women smoked in Tonga. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 44% for men and 12% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Tonga adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Tonga will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Trinidad and Tobago Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 466 499 518 523 525 524 Women 477 514 535 544 552 560 Both sexes 944 1,014 1,053 1,066 1,077 1,084

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Trinidad and Tobago Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) Smokeless use Men 0.5 Women 0.3 Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 33.5 Women 9.4 Daily use Men Women 29.1 7.7

Survey name

Pan American STEPS Noncommunicable Diseases and Risk Factors Survey 15-64 2011

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2011 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 15.4 20.0 20.8 Girls 7.8 16.3 17.8 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Trinidad and Tobago.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2011, shows that around 34% of men and around 9% of women aged 15-64 smoked in Trinidad and Tobago. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Trinidad and Tobago adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Turkey Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 21,253 23,478 25,615 27,893 29,924 31,878 Women 22,558 24,958 27,260 29,669 31,791 33,802 Both sexes 43,811 48,436 52,875 57,562 61,715 65,680

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 15.8 13.8 11.9 9.6 7.7 5.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 25.3 20.3 17.4 15.1 13.5 12.1

Lower 95% CI 46.4 42.8 37.0 31.8 24.8 19.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 59.7 52.5 45.9 40.2 35.1 30.7 32.1 74.0 63.1 53.9 50.2 44.2 42.0

Point estimate 20.1 17.1 14.6 12.4 10.4 8.8 10.2

Lower 95% CI 30.6 27.9 24.1 20.4 16.0 12.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 39.3 34.3 29.8 25.9 22.4 19.4 20.8 48.9 41.0 35.1 32.1 28.4 26.6

Estimated no. of current smokers 17,221,900 16,593,900 15,737,400 14,892,000 13,809,500 12,761,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 11.8 10.4 8.6 7.2 5.6 4.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 25.2 22.8 19.8 16.9 13.6 10.7

Lower 95% CI 39.5 35.9 31.7 27.2 22.2 17.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 51.3 44.9 39.5 34.6 30.2 26.5 27.7 64.1 53.3 47.1 43.2 39.8 36.6

Point estimate 15.2 12.9 11.0 9.3 7.9 6.7 7.7

Upper 95% CI 18.9 15.7 13.0 11.6 10.5 9.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 32.7 28.4 24.8 21.6 18.7 16.3 17.4 40.8 33.9 29.5 26.9 24.7 22.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 14,331,400 13,761,300 13,116,700 12,410,300 11,548,500 10,712,500

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Turkey Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 54.3 69.2 67.1 45.1 28.5 Women 17.8 26.6 23.0 10.4 4.3 Total 36.1 47.5 43.6 27.5 14.1 Men 41.7 53.2 51.2 35.3 21.6

Page 2 2010 Women 13.0 19.5 16.6 7.9 3.1 Total 27.5 36.2 33.2 20.4 10.9 Men 28.5 36.4 34.8 23.9 14.6

2025 Women 8.3 12.5 10.5 4.9 2.0 Total 18.6 24.5 22.5 13.7 6.9

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2012 2008 2003 2003 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 41.5 40.2 47.9 51.9 ... Women 13.1 13.8 15.2 17.3 27.6 Daily use Men Women 37.3 35.9 43.8 49.9 ... 10.7 10.8 11.6 15.6 26.9

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey Health Survey Global Adult Tobacco Survey World Health Survey, Turkey Turkey Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2009 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 20.3 14.4 11.1 Girls 12.8 7.4 4.4 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 30% of Turkey's population smoked (approximately 15,737,400 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 19% of the population (approximately 12,761,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 46% of men and about 15% of women smoked in Turkey. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 31% for men and 9% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Turkey adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Turkey will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Turkmenistan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,395 1,555 1,735 1,872 2,008 2,134 Women 1,473 1,641 1,833 1,985 2,140 2,287 Both sexes 2,867 3,196 3,568 3,857 4,148 4,421

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Turkmenistan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013-14 Age (years) 18-64 Smokeless use Men 3.0 Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 15.5 Women 0.6 Daily use Men Women 11.5 0.5

Survey name Turkmenistan STEPS

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name No known surveys Age (years) Smokeless use Boys Girls Tobacco type Current use Boys Girls Daily use Boys Girls

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X #N/A

X

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

X #N/A

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Turkmenistan.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2013-14, shows that around 16% of men and around 1% of women aged 18-64 smoked in Turkmenistan. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Turkmenistan adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Tuvalu Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3 3 3 3 3 4 Women 3 3 3 3 3 4 Both sexes 7 7 7 7 7 7

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Tuvalu Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2002 Age (years) 15+ Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 54.6 Women 22.7 Daily use Men Women ... ...

Survey name Population and Housing Census

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-based Student Survey (GSHS) Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2013 2006 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 32.4 41.6 Girls 11.1 32.7 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Tuvalu.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2002, shows that around 55% of men and around 23% of women aged 15+ smoked in Tuvalu. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Tuvalu adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Uganda Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 6,110 7,246 8,679 10,438 12,563 15,072 Women 6,209 7,303 8,702 10,460 12,581 15,089 Both sexes 12,320 14,548 17,381 20,897 25,143 30,161

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.8

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 5.3 4.2 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.7

Lower 95% CI 16.7 14.9 12.7 9.8 7.7 5.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 25.1 21.0 17.6 14.9 12.6 10.8 12.3 34.0 27.7 23.7 20.5 19.0 17.4

Point estimate 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.9

Lower 95% CI 9.7 8.6 7.3 5.6 4.4 3.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.4 12.1 10.1 8.6 7.3 6.2 7.1 19.5 15.9 13.6 11.8 10.9 10.0

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,775,800 1,755,300 1,762,500 1,795,800 1,834,500 1,884,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 1.9

Lower 95% CI 9.4 8.5 6.7 5.8 4.6 3.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.7 13.9 11.6 9.8 8.4 7.1 8.1 25.0 20.5 17.0 15.0 13.4 11.8

Point estimate 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1

Upper 95% CI 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 9.4 7.9 6.6 5.5 4.7 4.0 4.6 14.0 11.6 9.6 8.5 7.6 6.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,157,000 1,145,900 1,146,000 1,158,900 1,193,700 1,221,000

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Uganda Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 19.6 25.9 32.0 32.3 31.4 Women 2.2 3.5 5.9 7.4 8.5 Total 10.9 14.7 18.8 19.4 18.8 Men 13.8 18.2 22.5 22.7 22.1

Page 2 2010 Women 1.6 2.5 4.2 5.2 6.0 Total 7.7 10.4 13.4 13.7 13.2 Men 8.4 11.1 13.7 13.8 13.4

2025 Women 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.2 3.6 Total 4.7 6.3 8.2 8.4 8.1

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2011 2006 2000-01 Age (years) 15+ 15-49 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men 1.7 ... ... ... Women 3.0 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 10.3 13.0 18.1 25.2 Women 1.8 0.6 0.9 3.3 Daily use Men Women 8.6 10.4 ... ... 1.3 ... 0.8 ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey Demographic and Health Survey Demographic and Health Survey Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global School-Based Student Health Survey 2011 2007 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.3 17.3 7.6 Girls 15.8 15.3 3.1 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 10% of Uganda's population smoked (approximately 1,762,500 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 6% of the population (approximately 1,884,300 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 18% of men and about 3% of women smoked in Uganda. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 11% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Uganda adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Uganda will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Ukraine Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 18,376 18,266 17,960 17,113 16,199 15,631 Women 22,111 21,957 21,692 20,834 19,884 19,265 Both sexes 40,487 40,223 39,651 37,947 36,083 34,896

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 10.3 10.2 9.6 8.6 7.4 6.2

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 15.8 14.7 13.9 13.3 12.8 12.6

Lower 95% CI 49.1 46.7 44.1 40.1 35.7 29.6

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 60.0 56.1 52.4 49.5 46.5 43.4 36.7 72.7 65.9 63.1 59.7 59.3 54.9

Point estimate 13.0 12.4 11.7 11.0 10.1 9.4 8.2

Lower 95% CI 27.9 26.8 25.2 22.8 20.1 16.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 34.3 32.2 30.1 28.4 26.4 24.6 21.1 41.6 38.0 36.2 34.2 33.7 31.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 13,900,200 12,969,800 11,948,700 10,762,800 9,540,800 8,594,800

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 7.0 6.8 6.6 5.9 5.3 4.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 22.4 21.8 20.6 18.9 16.8 14.5

Lower 95% CI 40.9 39.8 37.5 34.7 31.0 26.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 52.4 48.8 45.9 43.3 40.6 38.0 32.1 63.5 57.6 54.1 51.6 50.5 48.1

Point estimate 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.6 5.7

Upper 95% CI 11.4 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.2 9.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.8 26.9 25.3 23.8 22.1 20.7 17.7 35.0 31.8 29.9 28.4 27.7 26.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 11,641,300 10,824,000 10,022,100 9,014,300 7,988,500 7,211,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Ukraine Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 53.2 69.4 68.2 51.7 35.0 Women 22.7 22.2 13.4 3.6 0.2 Total 38.2 45.7 39.1 23.7 10.6 Men 47.2 60.5 59.3 46.5 30.1

Page 2 2010 Women 20.9 20.6 11.8 3.7 0.2 Total 34.4 40.5 34.1 21.4 9.7 Men 38.2 50.6 49.3 37.4 24.9

2025 Women 18.7 17.9 10.9 2.9 0.2 Total 28.7 34.4 29.2 17.0 7.7

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 18+ 18+ 18+ 15+ 18+ Smokeless use Men ... ... ... 0.5 ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking <1% Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 48.0 ... ... 50.0 47.9 Women 12.8 ... ... 11.3 12.2 Daily use Men Women ... 44.4 46.1 45.5 ... ... 6.1 6.0 8.9 ...

Survey name

Annual household survey conducted by the National Statistic Service 2013 Annual household survey conducted by the National Statistic Service 2012 Annual household survey conducted by the National Statistic Service 2011 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) - Ukraine Health in Times of Transition Study 2009-10 2010

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2010 2005 Age (years) 13-15 15-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 22.6 30.8 29.8 Girls 15.7 12.9 22.2 Daily use Boys ... 23.0 ... Girls ... 8.0 ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 30% of Ukraine's population smoked (approximately 11,948,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 25% of the population (approximately 8,594,800 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 52% of men and about 12% of women smoked in Ukraine. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 43% for men and 9% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 15 - 24. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Ukraine adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Ukraine will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

United Rep. of Tanzania Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 9,259 10,641 12,315 14,376 16,873 19,901 Women 9,529 10,858 12,493 14,542 17,027 20,049 Both sexes 18,787 21,499 24,808 28,919 33,900 39,950

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 7.2 6.3 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.0

Lower 95% CI 21.6 21.4 21.4 18.0 15.5 10.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 35.7 32.1 28.9 26.3 24.0 22.2 20.2 49.2 42.1 37.2 34.4 35.7 34.9

Point estimate 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.7

Lower 95% CI 11.7 11.7 11.7 9.9 8.5 6.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 19.9 18.0 16.3 14.8 13.6 12.6 11.4 27.9 24.0 21.3 19.7 20.3 19.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 3,734,100 3,861,000 4,033,800 4,290,000 4,594,300 5,019,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 8.5 8.5 7.9 6.7 5.7 4.5

Lower 95% CI 16.0 15.9 14.7 12.5 10.6 8.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 27.0 24.1 21.7 19.8 18.1 16.7 15.2 39.8 33.2 28.6 26.6 26.1 26.1

Point estimate 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7

Upper 95% CI 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.7 13.2 12.0 10.9 10.0 9.3 8.4 22.0 18.6 16.2 15.0 14.6 14.7

Estimated no. of daily smokers 2,766,600 2,846,800 2,972,200 3,166,500 3,394,500 3,704,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

United Rep. of Tanzania Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 30.6 36.4 41.9 40.8 40.8 Women 3.7 4.1 5.5 6.5 6.7 Total 17.2 20.3 23.1 22.5 21.6 Men 24.8 29.5 33.8 32.9 32.9

Page 2 2010 Women 3.1 3.4 4.6 5.4 5.6 Total 13.9 16.5 19.2 18.3 17.6 Men 19.0 22.6 25.8 25.1 25.1

2025 Women 2.4 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.4 Total 10.7 12.7 14.7 14.4 13.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2012 2010 2004-05 Age (years) 25-64 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men 2.9 ... ... Women 2.2 Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 26.0 19.1 21.0 Women 2.9 0.4 0.5 Daily use Men Women 22.2 18.1 ... 2.0 ... ...

Survey name Tanzania STEPS Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Arusha) Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Dar Es Salaam) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Arusha) 2008 2006 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.9 ... ... Girls 5.5 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 12.4 7.5 8.7 Girls 8.8 2.9 4.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 16% of United Rep. of Tanzania's population smoked (approximately 4,033,800 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 5,019,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 29% of men and about 4% of women smoked in United Republic of Tanzania. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 22% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If United Republic of Tanzania adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, United Republic of Tanzania will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Uruguay Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 1,191 1,202 1,240 1,282 1,318 1,354 Women 1,315 1,333 1,373 1,412 1,443 1,472 Both sexes 2,505 2,535 2,613 2,694 2,761 2,827

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 25.4 21.8 17.6 13.2 9.9 7.4

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 42.4 32.8 26.2 21.6 18.6 15.6

Lower 95% CI 36.6 30.9 25.2 20.5 14.8 12.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 47.2 38.8 31.6 26.0 21.4 17.7 22.1 58.0 46.1 37.6 32.3 27.9 25.3

Point estimate 33.9 27.1 21.8 17.6 14.1 11.3 15.3

Lower 95% CI 30.7 26.1 21.2 16.7 12.2 9.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 40.2 32.6 26.5 21.6 17.6 14.4 18.5 49.8 39.1 31.6 26.7 23.0 20.2

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,007,700 827,500 691,200 581,800 485,500 406,100

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 18.5 15.7 12.9 9.9 7.3 5.2

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 22.9 19.6 16.1 12.5 9.7 6.9

Lower 95% CI 27.7 24.0 19.6 15.4 12.3 8.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 36.4 30.0 24.4 20.1 16.6 13.6 17.1 46.3 37.1 30.0 25.6 22.9 19.3

Point estimate 25.2 20.3 16.3 13.1 10.6 8.5 11.4

Upper 95% CI 31.8 25.0 20.3 16.4 14.1 11.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 30.5 24.9 20.1 16.4 13.5 10.9 14.1 38.7 30.7 24.9 20.8 18.3 15.4

Estimated no. of daily smokers 764,800 631,100 526,400 442,600 371,800 309,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Uruguay Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 48.5 53.5 52.9 40.8 22.1 Women 40.6 44.7 39.2 22.8 10.4 Total 44.6 49.1 45.8 31.0 14.9 Men 32.5 36.0 35.6 27.6 14.5

Page 2 2010 Women 26.4 29.2 25.5 15.0 6.6 Total 29.5 32.6 30.4 20.9 9.6 Men 18.4 20.3 20.1 15.5 8.2

2025 Women 14.1 15.5 13.5 7.9 3.5 Total 16.3 18.0 16.8 11.5 5.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2009-10 Age (years) 15+ 12-65 18+ 19+ Smokeless use Men 0.0 ... ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 30.7 36.3 38.8 45.0 Women 19.8 27.9 28.4 24.3 Daily use Men Women 24.8 ... 33.8 ... 16.4 ... 23.4 ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey World Health Survey, Uruguay Enfermedades cardiovasculares

Cuarta Encuesta Nacional de Hogares sobre Consumo de Drogas 2006 2003 1991-93

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2012 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 8.4 11.9 21.4 Girls 12.9 14.1 24.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Encuesta Nacional sobre Consumo de Drogas en Estudiantes de Enseñanza Media 2012 13-17

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 26% of Uruguay's population smoked (approximately 691,200 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 14% of the population (approximately 406,100 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 32% of men and about 22% of women smoked in Uruguay. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 18% for men and 11% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 25 - 39; and among women in the age-group 25 - 39. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Uruguay adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Uruguay will achieve the smoking component of the target.

Uzbekistan Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 7,647 8,555 9,607 10,531 11,274 12,073 Women 7,923 8,833 9,895 10,835 11,617 12,478 Both sexes 15,570 17,388 19,502 21,366 22,891 24,552

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2

Lower 95% CI 19.0 19.1 17.1 15.4 12.3 9.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.6 26.8 25.3 24.2 23.5 22.7 17.7 40.6 36.1 34.2 35.8 37.0 37.1

Point estimate 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0

Lower 95% CI 9.8 9.8 8.8 7.9 6.3 4.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 14.8 13.9 13.2 12.6 12.2 11.8 9.2 21.1 18.8 17.9 18.7 19.3 19.4

Estimated no. of current smokers 2,306,000 2,416,400 2,569,100 2,689,400 2,788,700 2,890,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 6.7 6.3 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.2

Lower 95% CI 13.1 12.2 10.8 9.6 7.7 6.1

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 22.6 21.2 19.8 19.1 18.4 17.9 13.9 34.4 31.3 28.8 28.9 28.9 30.6

Point estimate 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7

Upper 95% CI 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.7 10.9 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.3 7.2 17.8 16.3 15.0 15.1 15.1 16.0

Estimated no. of daily smokers 1,815,500 1,902,000 2,001,100 2,109,000 2,178,900 2,273,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Uzbekistan Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 22.2 29.0 35.8 33.6 31.2 Women 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 Total 11.9 15.2 18.4 16.8 12.8 Men 19.6 25.4 31.6 29.8 27.4

Page 2 2010 Women 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 Total 10.5 13.4 16.1 14.8 12.0 Men 16.9 22.2 27.1 25.4 23.5

2025 Women 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Total 9.1 11.8 14.0 12.4 10.3

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year Age (years) 15+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men 22.5 ... Women 0.4 Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 20.0 24.1 Women 1.1 0.9 Daily use Men Women 15.5 ... 1.0 ...

Survey name Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey

Social Research Center population survey of tobacco consumption practices 2006 2002

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Tashkent) 2008 Age (years) 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 2.7 Girls 1.6 Daily use Boys ... Girls ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 13% of Uzbekistan's population smoked (approximately 2,569,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 12% of the population (approximately 2,890,400 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Uzbekistan. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 23% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Uzbekistan adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Uzbekistan will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Vanuatu Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 55 64 73 85 96 110 Women 53 62 73 84 96 109 Both sexes 108 126 146 169 192 220

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Lower 95% 95% CI CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper Estimated no. of 95% CI daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Vanuatu Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 Age (years) 25-64 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 62.3 Women 20.2 Daily use Men Women 33.5 7.8

Survey name STEPS

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 2007 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 19.4 34.1 Girls 8.2 19.6 Daily use Boys ... ... Girls ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Vanuatu.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2011, shows that around 62% of men and around 20% of women aged 25-64 smoked in Vanuatu. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Vanuatu adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 8,082 9,158 10,204 11,218 12,219 13,199 Women 8,093 9,197 10,280 11,338 12,390 13,422 Both sexes 16,176 18,355 20,483 22,556 24,609 26,622

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 Age (years) 18-65 Smokeless use Men 6.2 Women 0.9 Cigarette smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 25.2 Women 13.9 Daily use Men Women 17.0 9.4

Survey name Estudio Nacional de Drogas en Población General

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Barinas) Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2010 2003 1999 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.9 ... ... Girls 2.6 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 11.0 18.7 15.3 Girls 7.2 13.0 13.9 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of).

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2011, shows that around 25% of men and around 14% of women aged 18-65 smoked in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of). Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Viet Nam Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 26,756 29,992 33,120 35,234 37,163 39,205 Women 28,588 31,917 35,009 37,203 39,203 41,211 Both sexes 55,344 61,909 68,129 72,437 76,367 80,416

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7

Lower 95% CI 36.9 37.7 39.7 36.3 33.7 29.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 49.4 48.5 47.9 48.0 47.8 47.1 33.5 62.0 57.9 58.3 59.4 64.3 69.0

Point estimate 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9

Lower 95% CI 18.5 18.9 19.8 18.1 16.8 14.5

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 24.7 24.3 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.5 16.8 31.1 29.0 29.2 29.8 32.2 34.5

Estimated no. of current smokers 13,675,100 15,025,000 16,319,700 17,395,900 18,234,400 18,918,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 13.9 14.7 15.7 14.6 13.3 11.9

Lower 95% CI 27.8 29.5 31.4 29.3 26.6 23.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 40.0 39.3 38.8 38.8 38.5 37.8 27.2 50.9 47.8 48.5 48.4 50.6 55.1

Point estimate 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7

Upper 95% CI 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 20.0 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.2 18.9 13.6 25.5 23.9 24.2 24.2 25.3 27.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 11,074,200 12,138,100 13,200,700 14,042,800 14,660,600 15,190,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Viet Nam Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 31.8 56.8 65.4 52.1 35.1 Women 0.5 0.9 2.3 4.0 4.0 Total 16.3 28.7 32.8 25.3 15.3 Men 30.2 53.6 61.5 51.0 32.7

Page 2 2010 Women 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.0 3.1 Total 15.6 27.2 31.3 24.5 13.4 Men 28.4 51.7 58.0 47.1 31.7

2025 Women 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.2 Total 14.9 26.4 29.3 23.2 13.0

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2010 2006 2002 1998 Age (years) 15+ 15+ 15+ 15-85 Smokeless use Men 0.3 ... ... ... Women 2.3 Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Men 47.4 49.2 56.1 51.0 Women 1.4 1.5 1.8 4.0 Daily use Men Women 38.7 39.0 ... ... 1.2 1.1 ... ...

Survey name Global Adult Tobacco Survey Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey National Health Survey Viet Nam Living Standards Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-based Student Survey (GSHS) Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Hanoi) 2013 2007 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 3.6 6.5 3.2 Girls 1.2 1.5 1.0 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 24% of Viet Nam's population smoked (approximately 16,319,700 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 24% of the population (approximately 18,918,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 48% of men and about 1% of women smoked in Viet Nam. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 47% for men and 1% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 40 - 54; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Viet Nam adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Viet Nam will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

West Bank and Gaza Strip Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 848 973 1,174 1,402 1,637 1,879 Women 835 956 1,151 1,373 1,603 1,841 Both sexes 1,683 1,929 2,325 2,775 3,239 3,720

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

West Bank and Gaza Strip Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 Age (years) 15-64 Smokeless use Men ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 37.6 Women 2.6 Daily use Men Women 36.2 2.2

Survey name Occupied Palestinian Territories STEPS

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global School-Based Student Health Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (West Bank) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Gaza Strip) 2010 2009 2005 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 32.5 52.8 18.4 Girls 9.8 27.7 11.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2011, shows that around 38% of men and around 3% of women aged 15-64 smoked in West Bank and Gaza Strip. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If West Bank and Gaza Strip adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Yemen Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 4,526 5,480 6,610 7,775 9,002 10,233 Women 4,486 5,462 6,604 7,774 8,993 10,212 Both sexes 9,012 10,941 13,214 15,549 17,994 20,444

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of current smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Both sexes Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Lower 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point estimate ... ... ... ... ... ...

Upper 95% CI ... ... ... ... ... ...

Point Upper 95% estimate CI ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Estimated no. of daily smokers ... ... ... ... ... ...

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Yemen Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men ... ... ... ... ... Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

Page 2 2010 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... Men ... ... ... ... ...

2025 Women ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ...

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2013 2002-03 Age (years) 10+ 10+ Smokeless use Men ... ... Women . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 20.7 27.4 Women 6.0 10.3 Daily use Men Women ... ... ... ...

Survey name National Health and Demographic Survey Yemen Family Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2014 2008 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.7 8.2 ... Girls 2.6 Any tobacco use 8.4 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 23.9 14.5 19.7 Girls 9.9 10.5 13.7 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

Key messages There are insufficient data to calculate trend estimates for Yemen.

The most recent national adult survey, conducted in 2013, shows that around 21% of men and around 6% of women aged 10+ smoked in Yemen. Projection of these rates to 2025 will be possible when additional data become available.

If Yemen adopts the global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use by 2025, additional surveys are required to enable monitoring of trends.

Zambia Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 2,721 3,043 3,495 4,139 4,921 5,830 Women 2,760 3,068 3,522 4,192 5,009 5,953 Both sexes 5,482 6,111 7,017 8,331 9,929 11,782

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.1

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 7.4 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9

Lower 95% CI 20.0 20.0 17.6 15.3 11.9 10.4

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 28.1 26.5 25.2 24.1 23.3 22.8 17.6 36.2 34.3 33.2 33.7 34.1 38.0

Point estimate 5.0 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.8

Lower 95% CI 11.6 11.5 10.0 8.6 6.7 5.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.5 15.4 14.6 13.8 13.3 12.9 10.2 21.7 20.3 19.5 19.8 20.0 21.8

Estimated no. of current smokers 902,700 941,400 1,021,600 1,152,600 1,316,800 1,519,700

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 6.8 6.8 6.1 5.0 4.2 3.3

Lower 95% CI 11.6 12.1 10.7 8.9 7.4 5.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 18.5 17.4 16.6 16.0 15.5 15.0 11.6 24.9 24.1 23.1 23.4 24.2 25.2

Point estimate 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9

Upper 95% CI 5.1 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.5 6.7 14.9 14.3 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.6

Estimated no. of daily smokers 594,600 621,500 675,300 767,100 877,900 1,005,400

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Zambia Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 22.3 28.0 35.7 38.6 36.9 Women 3.3 4.1 6.7 10.1 12.2 Total 12.8 16.2 21.1 23.7 23.1 Men 20.0 25.2 31.8 34.6 33.1

Page 2 2010 Women 2.7 3.4 5.4 8.3 10.0 Total 11.3 14.3 18.9 20.9 20.3 Men 17.8 22.4 28.5 30.9 29.6

2025 Women 2.1 2.7 4.3 6.4 7.9 Total 9.9 12.4 16.3 18.6 17.6

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2007 2003 2001-02 Age (years) 15-49 18+ 15-49 Smokeless use Men ... ... ... Women . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Men 23.2 22.7 26.4 Women 0.7 5.7 2.7 Daily use Men Women ... 15.3 ... 0.4 3.4 ...

Survey name Zambia Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Zambia Zambia Demographic and Health Survey

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Lusaka) Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Lusaka) 2011 2007 2002 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys ... ... ... Girls . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 24.9 25.7 22.8 Girls 25.8 25.6 22.4 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X

X X

X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of Zambia's population smoked (approximately 1,021,600 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 13% of the population (approximately 1,519,700 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 25% of men and about 4% of women smoked in Zambia. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 23% for men and 3% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Zambia adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Zambia will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

Zimbabwe Table 1. Population aged 15 years and over (thousands) Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Men 3,564 3,642 3,736 4,535 5,323 5,977 Women 3,669 3,796 3,949 4,714 5,471 6,116 Both sexes 7,233 7,438 7,685 9,249 10,794 12,093

Page 1

Table 2. Fitted trends in current tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over CURRENT TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Women Lower 95% CI 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5

Both sexes Upper 95% CI 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6

Lower 95% CI 21.0 22.1 21.1 20.5 17.5 15.0

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 29.8 28.7 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 19.6 38.3 36.3 34.9 36.8 39.8 43.6

Point estimate 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4

Lower 95% CI 11.1 11.5 10.8 10.5 9.0 7.7

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 16.1 15.2 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 10.2 20.8 19.5 18.5 19.5 21.0 22.9

Estimated no. of current smokers 1,161,000 1,132,600 1,125,100 1,350,200 1,577,900 1,777,200

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted current tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 80

prediction range

target

survey data

80 60 40

No data

60 40 20 0 2000

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Table 3. Fitted trends in daily tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 years and over Men Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

DAILY TOBACCO SMOKING (%) Women Lower 95% CI 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3

Both sexes Lower 95% CI 7.7 7.8 7.3 6.7 5.9 5.2

Lower 95% CI 14.4 14.8 14.2 13.0 11.5 10.3

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 21.9 21.0 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.8 14.4 29.4 27.6 27.3 29.1 30.5 33.4

Point estimate 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1

Upper 95% CI 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9

Point Upper 95% estimate CI 11.8 11.2 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 7.5 15.9 14.8 14.4 15.3 16.0 17.5

Estimated no. of daily smokers 850,100 829,400 825,100 991,000 1,162,200 1,304,300

Voluntary target (30% relative reduction from 2010 to 2025)

Men - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

Women - fitted daily tobacco smoking (%) Per cent 100 prediction range target survey data

80 60 40 20 0 2000

80

No data

60 40

No data

20 0 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Zimbabwe Table 4. Fitted age-specific rates of current tobacco smoking, 2000, 2010 and 2025 2000 Age (years) 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 55 - 69 70+ Men 22.1 31.3 39.9 40.6 37.9 Women 1.8 2.3 3.6 4.7 5.3 Total 11.9 17.0 20.7 21.7 19.8 Men 21.0 29.5 38.0 38.6 36.1

Page 2 2010 Women 1.4 1.7 2.8 3.6 4.0 Total 11.1 15.6 19.4 18.9 17.7 Men 19.9 28.8 35.8 36.8 34.5

2025 Women 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.8 Total 10.4 14.9 19.0 18.4 15.8

Men 100 80 60 40 20 0 15 - 24 25 - 39 40 - 54 Age (years) 55 - 69 70+

Women 2000 2010 2025 100

2000

2010

2025

80 60

No data

40 20 0 15 - 24

No data

25 - 39

40 - 54 Age (years)

55 - 69

70+

Table 5. Recent national surveys among adults Survey year 2011 2005-06 Age (years) 15-49 15-49 Smokeless use Men 1.6 ... ... ... ... Women 0.4 Cigarette smoking . . . Cigarette smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking . . . Tobacco smoking Tobacco type Current use Men 21.2 21.3 ... 25.9 ... Women 0.2 0.4 ... 3.0 1.3 Daily use Men Women 20.2 20.2 33.4 18.9 ... ... 0.4 5.0 2.1 ...

Survey name Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey World Health Survey, Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey

National Survey Zimbabwe Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors (ZiNCoDs)25+ 2005 2003 1999 18+ 15-49

Table 6. Recent national surveys among youth Survey year Survey name Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Harare) Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Bulawayo ) Global School-Based Student Health Survey (Harare ) 2008 2003 2003 Age (years) 13-15 13-15 13-15 Smokeless use Boys 6.4 ... ... Girls 5.0 Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use . . . Any tobacco use Tobacco type Current use Boys 14.9 13.8 13.2 Girls 8.2 9.8 4.5 Daily use Boys ... ... ... Girls ... ... ...

Table 7. Surveillance planning WHO recommends that at least one adult survey and one youth survey are completed every five years. Based on surveys already completed, WHO recommends that future surveys be run in or before the year: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Adult survey Youth survey

X X X

X X

Key messages In 2010, WHO estimates that about 15% of Zimbabwe's population smoked (approximately 1,125,100 persons). If tobacco control efforts continue at the same intensity, WHO projects that in 2025 around 15% of the population (approximately 1,777,200 persons) will be smokers. In 2010, WHO estimates that about 28% of men and about 2% of women smoked in Zimbabwe. By 2025, WHO projects the rate to be approximately 28% for men and 2% for women. In 2010, the highest rate of smoking among men was seen in the age-group 55 - 69; and among women in the age-group 70+. Member States adopted a voluntary global target to reduce tobacco use (smoking and smokeless) by 30% by 2025. This document only presents results for tobacco smoking. If Zimbabwe adopts the global NCD target, the results indicate that, based on current smoking trends, Zimbabwe will not achieve the smoking component of the target.

ISBN 978 92 4 156492 2