Onchocerciasis control program economic review mission

JOINT COORDINATING COMMITTEE Onchocerciasis Control Programme in the Volta River Basin Area Ofice of the Independent Chairman c/o World Health Organization 121 I Geneva 27, Switzcrlend Tct. 346o61 Tclcxtr[ti 2782L J.C.C..C.C.C. COMITE CONJOINT DE COORDINATION Programms de Lutte Contre I'Onchocercose dans la R6gion du Bassin de la Volta Bweau du Pr&ident Indtpendant c/o Organisation Mondiale de la Sant6 l2ll Genive 27, Suisse Tcl 3.6061 T6lcx 2&E( 27821 JCC5. 7 Part II: Economic aspects JOINT COORDINATING COMMITTEE Fifth session Lom<i, 5-8 December 1978 3 November 1978 Provisional agenda item l1 The Independent Chairman submits for the consideration of the Joint Coordinating Committee, at its fifth session, part II of the Evaluation Report : Economic aspects. This document has been reviewed by the Steering Committee which has made the foltowing comments: "ft is noted that an earlier draft of the second part of the OCP Evaluation Report has been reviewed by EDAP and by Representatives of Participating Countries. While recognizing that this is a responsible document on the impact of OCP activities on economic development, the Steering Committee fully endorses the opinions expressed by the EDAP which in the main are stiIl relevant to the final version of the Part II. The Steering Committee. noted that EDAP had not commented on the section of the OCP Evaluation Report concerning the future of the Panel. The Steerihg Committee found the suggestion made by the mission to be an interesting alternative approach which is worthy of due consideration." ONCHOCERCIASIS CONTROL PROGRAI'T Economic Revlew I'IlssLon Oct,ober 25, 1978 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Concluslons and Summary of l{aln Flndlngs Introduction . .............................. II The Onchocerciasis Control progra Area as an Economic Region . ... .. .... .... . o .... ..... III The Economic Impact on Onchocercl_asls Control 8 V Settlement Pollcy and Hlgration 18 VI Economic StraEegies for the OCp Reglon 26 VII Plannlng the Development of the OCp Area 33 VIII Econonlc Criteria for Assesslng the Requested Extgnslons of the OCP . ... . ..... ......... o......... o 4r Appendix I Particlpants in EconomLc Revlew Mlssion, Tirne- table of Fleld Vislts and Terrns of Reference The Definition and Measurement of Economlc Benefits frorn Onchocerciasls Control Abandoned Valleys: The Hlstorical Debate The Need for Perrnanent Intenslve Fannlng Toward More Cost-Effective Disease Control Definltion of Soll Categorles and Methods of Estlnation of Areas Available for Agrlculture II III IV I Page 3 i I v VI aa a a a a a. a a a a a a a aa a a ao a a a a a o a a a aaaaaoaoaaaaa -1- CONCLU SIONS AND SUMMARY OF MAIN FII{DINGS l. Thls report presents the flndtnge of the mlsslon whlch was organlzed to nnake a general aasessment of the economlc developuent asPects of the Oncho- cerciasls Control Program (oCP). 2. The general concluslons and malu thenee of the rePort cao be brlefly stated at the outset: (a) by reduclng the misery caused by onchocerclasls, the oCP improves the well-belng of hundrede of thousands of people ln lmproverlshed and neglected reglons of l{eat Afrl.ca. (b) In addltlon to this lnportanE hrnanltarlan effect, the oCP w111 affect econoElc developnent by lncreaelng the quantlty and quallty of the area's productlve factore - labor and land. (c) Few economlc generallzattons are fu11y appllcable to all seven of the OCP countrles. Deuographic preseures aod factors explalnlng populatlon dletrlbutlon are not the sane Ln all the countrtes. The generallzatlon whlch plctures the OCP area aa typlfled by abandoned rlver valleye alongelde crowded plateaux ls only parttally accurete. The econool.c lnpact and lnpllcatlons of the Progr@ vary between counErles. (d) Glven the dlverslty of condltlons, develoPEeot planulng for the area can take no slngle forn. Each developoent echeme neede to be evaluated ln terms of lte soclal and econmlc nerlts ln the context of natlonal developnent plane, objec- tlves, pollcles and constralnts. (e) I.lhlle it lrlll make more accesslble orrch land that ls presently underutllLzed, the OCP doee not provide a panacea for develoPoent. There exlst Eany constralnts to the development of the new lands, in addltlon Eo the presence of onchocerciasls, and Eany other general constralnts on developnent lrhlch are belng addreeeed by economlc planners ln the OCP countrr-ee. (f) The OCP hae made a elgnlflcant contributlon to the economlc development of the erea ln several lndirect lrays. It has glven the UPper Volta, the country nost affected by oncho- cerclaels, a breathlng speII, uore tLtre to addreee lts fundamental develoPnent probleme; and OCP-related experiences and studles have clarlfled the nature of the obstacles to development ln the area, thereby underscortng the need for lncreased attentlon from the world conmunity Lf develoPment constral.nts in these areas are Eo be reduced. ,I (e) (h) 1i Glven the extreme poverty of the ocp area and the difficulties that lle ln the way of lts develoFent, increased external assLstance ls urgently needed to help accelerate the pace of economlc change and lnprove standards of llving in thls dls- advantaged reglon. Such asslstance should not be llmlted to settlement projects but should take account of the wlde diver- sity of development needs in the area. rn additlon to dryland farming the OCP region has great potential in irrigated agri- culture and in livestock productlon, among others; thispotentlal should be glven close attention by donors. Major efforts musE be directed toward transformation of tradi- tional farm practices. seed-based technical improvernents will help but the objectlve must be the development of a pemanent system of dry land faruing whlch will require something more. The adaptatlon to l.lest-African condltions of lorrinput, soil- enriching techniques based on better water management hasgreat pronise and pilot schemes using these techniques should receive strong support from local governments and <ionors. (i) The transformation of farning systems on exlsting 1ands, where most people 1ive, ls the atea' s central problera. New lands developmenE will greatly help and controlled settlenent schemes certalnly deserve continued asslstance but they are necessarily only a part of the sorution to the populatlon redlstribution problem. (j) The AVV mighr benefit from continued concentration on the white and red Voltas, thereby extending lts competence in organizing cult.ivation of heavy soi1s. rt could also intensifyi-ts experimentar acEivities in dryland farming and explore theposslblllties of opening irrigated perlmeters. (k) Settlement po11cy should be flexible, it should encourage alternative approaches with varying degrees of ttcontroltt. In Upper Vo1ta, collaboratlon between AW and ORDs would bedesirable as would be other klnds of efforts to assist spon- taneous migrants. (1) Greater aEtention needs to be given, in settlement schemes and in general, to Ehe needs and rlghts of women, in order to release labor constralnts on output and make rural develop ment more equitable. (m) The OCP "planning methodology" needs to be adapted in the lighf of experience, and greater recognition given to the diversity of plannj-ng needs. (n) The OcP must during the next phase find more cost-effective ways of disease control. The possibllity of an interEediate technology for vector control shourd be explored as should the feasibllity of utilizi.ng the existlng ocp transport and communication infrastructure for a primary health delivery program of some kind. -ttt- 3. Ihe Onchocerclasis Control Program (OCP) area hae much Ln common, ln terms of ecologlcal envlronment, solls, the nature of cropplng systems, income levels. From an economlc polnt of vlew, however, the area is diverse ln several key respects. The degree to whlch people are afflicted with onchocerclasls, the physical coverage of the vector control program, its economic lnpact and its lnpllcations for developent pollcles and programs, differ substantially from country to country. ftre bellef that the OCP area is generally characEerized by overcrowded plateauc borderlng on river valleys which are lnfested with onchocerciasis, 1s not unlversally appllcable; it is in fact relevant mainly to the Upper Volta. Hence general concepts applled to all the states ln the reglon, and unlform approaches related to develop ment planning or policy, are llkely to be unsuitable. Recognition that Ehe OCP area is an entomological, not an economic unlt helps in understanding the economlc development aspects of the control progran. 4. In addttlon to lts substantlal hrnanitarian beneflts, the OCP will brlng slgniflcant economic beneflts to the seven partlcipatlng countries. These economlc beneflts are of two klnds: those related to lncrease in labor productivity and those deriving from the openlng up of new lands which the control prograo makes posslble. 5. Three naln labor-relat,ed benefit,s flow fron vector control: reduction in deblllty, which is the generally lower level of physlcal performance caused by the parasite; reduction ln dlsabllity (tnpalred vlslon) and reduction in bllndness. In prlnciple, the benefits could be meaeured by the estlmated out- put losses lnvolved; in practlce the necessary data are lacklng. Ttrere are reasons to belleve that these benefits unwelghted by incone distribution factors, and using rrconventional" approaches to benefit measurement, are rela- tlvely modest. Ttris ls lnevitably so, because of the low lncomes of the target population. But it ls preclsely because of the especially dislnherited character of the affected populations that the benefits should be heavlly weighted. In additlon, use of lower dlscount rates and longer time horizons, which can be justlfled in projects like OCP nakes the likely benefitcost relationshlp attractlve, even for labor related benefits alone. 6. The major economlc beneflts, Eoreover, w111 come from the OCP conEributlon to the opening of new 1ands. Net benefits from new lands avail- abllity would not have to be improbably high to make the benefits exceed the costs of the control program. The devastatLng effect of erosion in reducing areas cultivable on the Mossi plateau suggests that substantial benefits will arlse from new lands - induced reductlons ln erosion on old lands. I'loreover, lower-than-convent,ional discount rates and longer tllle horizons substantially lncrease the purely economlc returns on the "new landsrf effects of the control Progratr. 7. From detailed analysis of soi1, land use, 4nd population distribu-tlon maps Ehe nission estlmates that sone 275rOOO knz of relatively enpty land exists ln the present program area of whlch 1341000 to I54r000 Is "suit- able for agrlculture". About two-thirds of this land is sinilar in qr:ality and pot,entlal to solls ln che plateau regionr l.e. ferruginous soils. Some 7Z consists of alluvials and colluvlals ln flood plalns and bas-fonds. iv- 8. The nission found some uncertainty regardlng the deflnition of "onchocerclasls zone proJects" and the nature of thelr clain on development resources. New project possibilitles will arlse in the OCP zones because the vector is under control . But there should be no presr.mptlon that these zones,per se' have a priority clain on available developnent resources. For pur- poses of development plannlng, the costs of onchocerciasis control should be regarded as sunk costs, and "onchocerciasls zone projects" should be evaluated on a case by case basis, on thelr merits. 9. In additlon to estinating how much "empty land" there is ln the OCP area, and its sultabtllty for agriculture, the misslon sought to deteruine what obstacles other than onchocerciasis tnhlbited more productive use of these areas. In addltion to lnaccesstbllity of drinklng water, several constraints are present in the river valleys of the area. The valleys and bas-fonds are sub ject to frequent flooding and excessive moisture. Some soils are excesslvely permeable, rullng out econonically viable use in irri- gated production. Other soils are heavy, and hence difficult to work by traditional methods and expensive lf other met.hods are used. Diseases other than onchocerciasis exlst, and uncertainty about tenure rights hinders utili- zation in some places. 10. Ihe OCP, then, will help nake available large areas of presently underutllized land of considerable potentlal economic importance, especially in the Upper Volta. Ttre major economic inpact of the potential availability of these t'new lands" ls, in fact, in the Upper Volta, where the several n111ion hectares of land under effective onchocerclasis control can help relieve population pressures on the Mossi plateau and ln other parts of the country. In most of the other OCP countries, there is underutilized iand outside of zones where onchocerclasis ls endemic, so the economic impact whil significant, ls llkely to be less dramatlc and less lmmedlate than in UpperVolta. i 11. There is evidence that ln some settlement schemes, women may be disadvantaged in the migration/settlement process; they are given arduous new tasks while being deprived of valuable tradltional rights. Outside interventions should aim at reducing demands on eromen's time. Broader economic parEicipatlon by women means lncreased labor and better nutritlon for the household. It is therefore critlcal to the improvement of rural living standards as well as essential for equltable rural development. 12. Set.tlemenE and/or migraElon lnto new lands provides only a partial I solution to the problems of population pressure, shortened failows, declininpj yields and disastrous erosion whlch exist in the Upper Volta and a few places elsewhere in the OCP area. The several million hectares of the Upper Volta's new lands can absorb only a few years' populaticn growth, unless r:nderlylng conditions change. However, to the exEent that the control program has helped open new areas for occupation, it gives tenporary rel-ief from these urgent pressures. It gives the Upper Voita in particular a vitally needed breathing spell, time to address Ehe fundamental problem: improvement and eventual transformation of farming practices, in the direction of peruanent, intensive cul tivation. e -v- 13. Broader lntroductlon of exlsting seed-based packages (better spacing' utore tlnely plantlng and weedlng, better eeed selectlon, etc.) can do nuch to ralse graln ylelds above thelr present low levele. But the longer-run obJectlve should be the lntroductlon of low-lnput, soll enrlchlng technologLes, based on better use of rainfall. These approachee have shown extrenely promlslng results ln Indla, Botswana and elseetlere ln LDC's, but have not yet been tested ln West African condltlons, Pllot efforts and experlmental proJects deserve htgh prlorlty. 14. Slnce lt is nelther desirable nor poeslble to continue to absorbpopulatlon increases by enlarglng the flow of nigranE labor to the Ivory Coast, the UpPer Volta nust utillze lts nen lande and urgently addreee the bottlenecks to expanded agrlcultural output on Lte exletlng lands. One thrust of lts development BErategy generally ehould be to lncreaee food crop outPut per hectare and per caplta, thereby maklng land and labor avallable for export crop productlon and other actlvltlee. For the Upper Volta, as for the other Parts of the OCP reglon, there are abundant opportunttles for export crop exPanslon provided that extension efforte are expanded and lnproved and sultable prlce, marketlng and transport pollcies are adopted. E:rtenslon opportunltles aleo exlst for greater utlllzatlon of the llveetock potential of the OCP BE€8o And potentially lrrlgated land ls very extenalve; lrrlgated agrtculture ln the OCP zones has a vital role to play ln antl-drought strate-gles for the Sahel. Ttre settlenent struggle to lmprove and tranefotrn farulng systems, however, Dust take place on the plateaux rfiere moet of the p€op]ellve. Ttre OCP, by allowln8 the softenlng of denographic preaaures for ageneratlon or tnore, slgnlflcantly Lnprovea the proepecte for aucceas ln that struggle. 15. Whtle the nisslon report atressea that there ls no unlversally appllcable developent strategy for the OCP area aB a wtrole, and that each developnent scheme needs to be evaluated on Lte merita ln lte natlonal contextlt also leade to one generally appllcable conclusLon: more developent resources are desperately needed ln thls dleadvantaged reglon If developent constraLnts are to be reduced and economlc progrees accelerated. Ttre factthat settlement of new lands whlch ocP help open up w111 provlde only a Partlal and tenporary solutlon lncreaaea the urgency and lnportance of expandlng lnternatlonal aesistance. Maselve atd le needed not only to helpin agricultural growth and tranefomatlon but more broadly Ln transportatlon,livestock, lrrlgatlon, nlneral exploratlon and agro-lnduetrial developent. 16. Assoclated wtth the oCP ls a rrstandard nethodology" for plannlng the developtrent of the OCP area. The "uethodologytt haa moved fomard at an uneven Pacer but generally slowly. In part thle ls due to dtfferent lnter-pretations as to what the nethodology tntended; for example, wlth reepect to the rigldlty wlth which lts recommended sequence (creatton of a ttdata bankr',draftlng a long-term develoFent plan, preparatlon of proJecte) waa to befollowed, and the relatlonshlp betlreen "onchocerclaela zone plannLng'r and national plannlng. In part, also, hesitatlon tn lnplementatlon has been dueto the uneven rrfltrr of the nethodologl to the varled needs of the countriea concerned; ln some, lnformatlon-gatherlng for potentlal settlement prograns is vI- a high prlorlty, ln others it is not; in some, regional relatively well-developed, in others, it is embryonlc; is of central economic iuportance, in others it is less ning approach can be equally suitable for countries in clrctrmstances, except at a very general IeveI. planning machlnery is in sone the OC? area so. No single plan- such heterogenous 17. The following adaptatlons are reconmended: (a) The ocP counrries followlng the standarc methodology should be given continued encouragement, and their efforts regarded as pilot experiences. Those ocp countries which have chosen to adopt the planning methodology partlally or not at all should be equally encouraged in this interpretation of theirpriorities. (b) the Development Planning Group idea should OCP countries where ttpemanentrr or ttseniortt appolnted (Benin, Mal-i, Ghana). Extension should await an evaluation of experience in The suitability of be tested ln those advisors have been to other countries these countries. (c) Development Planning Groups should be fu11y integrated into existlng planning bodies, where they are not already integrated. (d) The prioriEy and utillty of draftlng "1ong teru develop,ment planstt for the ttoncho zonestt should be carefully reassessed. The applicability of rhis norlon to the Upper Volta (where "onchocerciasis zone" is virtuaily the whole country), is uncertain, as lt will be for the four coastal states if the control program is extended southward. (e) The appropriate use of the OCP-related planning rnachinery depends on natlonal needs and will vary from country to country. In Upper Volta, for example, sect.Iement policy and migration are hlgh priority matEers and OCP planning inputs, therefore, could usefully be devored to project and policy-related research in the settlement/mlgration area. (f) The results of the merhodology and of existlng approaches to plannlng for the developrnent of the OCp area should be evaluated at the end of 1979, by which tlne there should exlst an adequate accumulatlon of experience. 18. The Economic Development Unit has provided excellent. and useful monitoring of economic developments 1n the ocp area, but is seeking todefine a nel^, roIe. The EDU could exparrd its research and po1lcy analysis activities by undertaking research and analysls on iEs own and by organizing research to be done by others. It should specialize on socj-o-economic subjectsdirectly related to the vector control program. One appropriate subjecE is resettlement and migraEi.on, an area where the need for program-and policy- related research is acute, partlcularly in the Upper Volta. Another possible -vll- area for socLoeconomlc research ls health and health care dellvery. The EDU could also undertake studles alned at, deterulnlng the economlc lnpact of the control program, as !ra6 recently recommended by OCP Government represent.atives. 19. The Econornic Develop,Eent Advlsory Panel rsas for:ned in 1975. It has two related problems: lack of focus because t'economlc development, is so dlffuse a concern; and lack of contact wlth a well-deftned audience for its advice. One way to remedy these difftculties would be to form a single, over- all advlsory panel for the OCP, with ad hoc sub-panels on specifle, scientific, ecological and economic developuent issuee whlch arlse over tLme. The EDAP functlons would be exerclsed withln these ad hoc panels. 20. The technology of the vector control operatlon ls extremely effl- cient and inpresslve. For long-run mal.ntenance of onchocerclasis control, however, a slnpler, less expenslve Eechnology wtll be uore appropriate. Drrlng the next phase of the OCP, lntenslve efforte should be made to develop more cost-effectlve approaches and technlquee of control . Speclal fr.rnding should be made avallable to finance these efforte. 21. Means should be sought to uttlize trore lntenslvely the Lnfrastruc- ture put ln place by the OCP, partlcularly lts unmatched transport and commu- nicatlons network. It should be posslble to devlse a workable scheme for dellvery of primary health care servlces by "piggy-backing" on the OCP trans-port network. A mission should be sent to the field to explore this idea indetail and develop lt further lf it proves feaslble. 22. Ttre declsLon to extend vector control operatlons w111 depend in Part on medlcal or entomologlcal factors -- the need to prevent or reduce reinfestatlon of the present OCP area, and the prevalence and severlty of onchocerciasls ln the proposed extension area. Ttre economlc beneflts of extension w111 be of the satre nature as the benefits of the existing program(hlgher labor productlvity and lncreased accesslbillty to new land) plus reductlon in costs of combatlng reLnvaslon ln the exlsting ocP area. 23. The proposed extension area for the three coastal states would bring protection agalnst onchocerclasis to relatively large ntmbers of people - L.4 nillion ln Ghana, 850,000 ln Togo, over half the total population ofBenin. A critical question ln assesslng the exteneion request is the extent to which these populatlons are presently exposed to onchocerciasls. 24. The "empty lands" in the extenslon area have substantial economicpotentialz 7921000 ha. are good bottomlands and about I.4 mtlllon ha consist of ferralitlc solls, according to rnisslon estltratee. The unknown elenent ln the economlcs of the extenslon ls the extent to whlch onchocerciasls ls a critltal factor explatning the present underutlllzatlon of these lands. 25. Ihe economlc case for program extenslon should be based on thefollowing conslderatlons: t.he slze of the at-rlsk population and the inten- sity of thelr exposure; the extent to whlch new lands access is auguented; the cost and/or technical dlfficulty of instltuting effectlve disease control by alternative programs; the lmpact on reinvaslon of the existing OCP area. - vlli - 26. Focus on the economlc aspects of the control progratr, while sultable and necessary' should not obscure the substantlal hr-rnanltarian aspect of the OCP. The extensLon, like the OCP itself, is lntended to reduce the misery brought by disease to an inpoverlshed part of mankind. Ttre degree to which the exEension of the program area contributea to this goal should be a major criterion for determinlng lts extension. OCP ECONOI.fiC REVIEW - MAIN REPORT I INTRODUCTION l. At lts Eeetlng in Rome on September I and 2, L977, the Steerlng Comrnlttee for the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) decided that the sponsorlng agencl.es of the Program -- FAo, I,NDP, I{IIo and the rBRD -- should carry out a comprehensive revlew of the program in order to lay a proper basis for lts next six-year phaee which w111 start ln 1980. It was declded at the same tlme that the review should be dlvlded lnto tlro parts -- an assessEent of the vector control program by the I{II0, and a revlew of the economlc develop,nent aspects of the progre by a uultl-lateral team, to beput together by the IBRD in collaboratLon wlth other particlpatlng agencl.es. 2. The Economic Revlew Misslon began lts work ln January 1978. It consisted of ten members, of whou a group of ftve composed the t'core" whLch visited most of the countries. Country economlsts of the l{orld Bank aeslstedin several countries. A llst of participants ln the RevLew llLsslon ts attachedin Appendix I. 3. Mlsslon members nade three trtps to the OCP cormtries between January and l'tay 1978. Each of the seven countrles was vlgl.ted by raost nlssion members; only one member rrent to Nlger. The misel.on travelled ln the OCP zone of each of the countrles, except ln Ghana, wtrere transport avail- abllity and schedullng constralnts prevented a trlp to the upper and northern reglons. Loglstlcal aupport was provlded by local government agencles, Ln Partlcular by the various Natlonal Cornmittees on onchocerciasts, and by the IBRJ, IINDP and FAO representatl.ves. A calendar of t,he mlselon's activltlesIs lncluded ln Appendix I. 4. In lts terms of reference, the ulsslon was asked to aseess the economic inpact of the OCP, revlew develoFent strategles and obstacles to developnent ln the progrem area, determlne the extent to wtrlch the progran has opened up new lands, assess exlstlng settlement pollcles and make recommendatlons on approaches to plannlng and on the proposed extenslon of the Program area. A report of 50 pages was to be submltted. Ttre detalled tenDs of reference are reproduced ln Appendlx I. -2- u?Er voLt^ uttill lAUttlllNra ?iOGRAIIiME AREA : GHAr{A al O.L ) ,.*, SENEGAL IIU llSSI0 Coabv GUIMA tlatG€lla NIGEi I a 9$.' I IENIN I I I I I I I ) I I L.to. lruilrc ocE il a00tE I ) -3- II. THE ONCHOCERCIASIS CONTROL PROGRAM AREA AS AI{ ECONOMIC REGION 5. [he Onchocerciasis Control Progran (OCP) covers an area of some 6541000 km'ln seven countries of West Afrlca. Ttrey are, from west to east: Mall, Ivory Coast, Upper Volta, Ghana, Togo, BenLn, and Niger. More specific- ally, the reglon gomprlses: in MaIl, the territory east of the lLne Bamako- l'lopti (125,000 kn-); in Ivory Coast, the part north of the 1lne OdLenne- Bouake-Bondoukou (1I0,00Q kn-); in Upper Volta, the entire country, except lts norrhern tfp (230,000 kn'); ln Ghana, the area north of the Volta Lake (98,000 kn4); the northern?part of Togo (lSrOOO tn"); in Benln, the area north of Djougou (5tr000 kn-); in Nlger, the tlp of the country southeast of Nlaney(17,000 kn-). Ttre nap below shows the reglon and the OCP Br€8. 6. The OCP zones of each of the seven countrLes have many conmon features. They are wooded savannah with between 700-1100 m. of rainfall annually. Ferruglnous solls are domlnant, wl.th scattered bottomlands and flood plains. Farmers cultivate malnly cereals ln the northern parts of the reglon (sorghr,uas, nillets, sone nalze), cassava and yams farther south, as well as cotton, groundnuts, rice and corrpeas. Aninal-raising us widespread; the Fulani own and/or tranage most cattle herds; small rrminants are more wtdely owned. Anlnal traction ls widely used ln Southern Mali and parts of Northern Benln; elsewhere it is only beglnnlng to enter cropplng systens. Shtfting cultlvatlon technlques with long fallows remain domlnant. Incomes are low; the people of thls reglon are among the poorest in the world. They have one-third to one-half the lncome of those in forest and coastal regions l-n West Africa. The large differentlals ln Lncome and access to social services, combined with historical and soclologlcal factors, encourage a flow of nlgratlon southward -- massive ln nagnitude ln the Upper Volta, slgnlficant ln most of the other states. 7. Perhaps because of this array of common features, combined w'ith a natural tendency to generalize ln dlscusslon of complex undertakings llke the OCP, there has emerged in the publlc understandlng a general view of the economic signlflcance of the OCP, a klnd of standard perceptlon or "paradlgm.tt Ttris can be summarlzed as follows: the OCP area typlcally consLsts of over crowded plateaux bordering on rLver valleys whlch are uninhablted largely because the black fly, Slmulium dannostrm, the vector of onchocerciasis, has driven away the former inhabltants. l/ l/ see below, chapter rv for a statetrent of this vlew fron the Main Report of the Preparatory Asslstance mlssLon to Governments, (PAG) Onchocerclasis Control ln the Volta Rlver Basln Area . Report of theMisslon for Pre rator Asslstance to the Governments of D Ghana Ivor Coast Ma11 N1 r To U VoIta , presentedby UNDP, FAO, IBRD, [,lHO, Geneva, August, I 73. Herea ter PAG Report. o) Er-{trEldodP..r hoPb0d .pdoq) -lkt{q{JP{q, OAoc\q A.r'l \q \s. \s. bs. \s. \q \q \s.[n\oo.f-llJ.\o\o "1 .-l-tJO _{ dtrq) .r{ I{oJdPHdo0)E'-l E '.fpE xdidO -'l t{hrbl)Agoqo h < gP{ oooooooooooooooooooooooo F_OOOOtr\oolS O O O O\ t\ O O\rJ\\ooJ.r.\o\o rt .-{ r-l .i O _l -ldP op g doO"{PPdd .5i PAootrl A .-l cn C! r-{ C! C\J -lvv ooooooooc)ooooooooooooooo O\OOOO\O-l Cnr'--Jooorr\cuo\ C\j @ L.r tn 5 r-{ Ln (n(n dhop 0)trEdrj Hgr oidOrt ti trdob0bqP > oOOt{POA \s \q \q \q \q Eq bq tss.(}\tf\b-O\CnrnnOJ-l-{r-l(nO _l o >EpF H^d d br\ioooEti tr lrJd < oA{- o0)().q P \o@oLn!..-@oJ[n O\ .{ (\l rl r{ (n [n -{ -l C\! \O oooooooooooooooooooooooo d o Ld C^\J .lEd ,!4 Pv oH Otr_OOOOOFc\rFb--oooo\o\o(nc!oo\oo@ c\J@Cn.$F\.c.Jr.\ .-lCn(nO@tf\FO -l c' rn c\J H o] -:f r{H(n >,tr -lJ o(J PdOPdr{oo oEsJhktl-lOHli'-loOOd .CcdO-thoboq+rd-C>d'rrOAOAUHEAE-iDFr Hq e O Mp{ H H EA Efrt'l oU aoH Er S Propr e ff& -; tl Ff, Fq H G Fl [n -l AA ca f..- o\ -l rl bt EItrl c5lfl ;; o S{t oa a F{ a tr 0) o _lr- I .{OOFFFO\ O\ O\F{ -l -l -l OJ (nvvv -5- 8. Thls paradlgm or nodel has galned wtde acceptance ln parttclpating countries as well as among donors and outside obeerrrers. Its acceptance has been encouraged by the fact that the reglon does have many cotrmon features, as noted above. But there are real dlfferences between the OCP countries in tetils of the iupact of the control progran on thelr economies and in terms of the degree of applicabillty of the paradlgn. Table l, wtrich coues fron the PAG Report shows the variations in area and population covered; though the dE refer to 1970, the pLcture has not changed. In tems of area covered as well as population affected, upper volta ls obviously the naJor fogus of the program. It makes up over a third of the total of 654,000 km' ln the OCP area, lts lnhabitants are half the total affected population; virtually all of its nat.ional terrltory is encompassed by the control program. Moreover, Upper Volta flts the conventional model nore closely than the other OCP states. Only in Upper Volta does there appear to be falrly general and substantial Pressure of people on the land, as evldenced by largescale mlgration, made necessary by the decllnlng potential of the natural resource base, e.g. loss of top soil through erosion, decllnlng fertlllty and yields, fal.lure of the age-old shifttng cultivatlon system. Also in Upper Volta, cronded plateaux and enpty river valleys do coexlst, and onchocerciasls seens to be an inportant reason for this pecull,ar dlstribution of populatlon. 0f Ehe 701000 cases of blindness reported for the OCP area as a whole by the PAG study tn 1973, 80 percent were found tn Upper Volta. 9. In each of these respects -- geographic lnportance of OCP coverage and economic relevance, or the degree of "fitrr of the conventlonal paradigm, the other slx states vary. In Nlger the dlsease control progran covers less than 1.2 percent of the land area and affects less than I.5 percent of the population. l/ Ttre "OCP zone", though snall, figures promlnently ln the Niger Government's developnent plannlng. In MaI1, the control program covers a large and l-nportant area -- one third of the most fertlle, best wateredpart of the country. But the empty valleys/crorsded plateaux nodel applies very little lf at all; populatlon dlstribution in the areas affected by onchocerciasls does not seen to be different than ln other parts of southernMali. There is little evldence of "abandoned valleys" in Mali. 10. The four coastal countries ln the OCP have large portions of thelr national territories included in the OCP area -- roughly the northern 35-50 Percent of each country. Three of these countries contaln pockets of highpopulation density: the Korhogo reglon in Ivory Coast, the Bawlsu-Bolgatanga zone in northeast Ghana, and the area lmnedlately surroundlng Larna-Kara ln I(ara Province, Togo. They also have large stretches of thlnly-populated land; but the economic irnpact of onchocerclasls Ln these regions is not clear. According to local sources, the naJor factor explainlng the existing popu-lation distribution is historlcal. As a result of the lgth century rnilitary L/ The PAG Reporr or iginally lncluded part of Tera districr bur rhe OCP area in Niger in p5actice now covers only the Say Arrondisseuent, which is l5r0O0 kn'ln size, wlth an estimated populatlon of 751000 in 1977. -6- upheavals a wlde east-west belt on the border between savannah and rain-forest was depopulated. This is said to explaln why populatlon densities are so 1ow throughout these latltudes, and not only ln the rlver valleys. The "paradigm" then is of limited app1icablllty ln at least several of the coastal states -- Benin and Ivory Coast, for example. l/ ll. That such differences exlst wlthln Ehe OCP area shoul<i hardly be surprlsing. The boundarles of the cont,rol program area rrere chosen for entomologlcal reasons, not on grounds of econonlc homogeneity. The central purpose was to deflne the boundaries of the area ln such a way as to make vector control effective. 12. It follows from the dlversity withln the OCP area that Ehe seven participatlng countries are not equal beneflclaries of the control program. A11 benefit in some rDeasure, but those sEates wtth the most numerous afflicted population and those Eost urgently in need of new lands are the principal beneficiaries. The Upper Volta is obviously the state most affected. Dif- ferential benefit-sharing however must be viewed in the context of the econo- mic interdependence of the region. Sone of the Voltalc beneflts for exauple, are indirectly shared with ot.her states of the region because Voltaics -- nade healthler and more productive as a result of onchocercLasis control -- enigrate in large numbers, to the Ivory Coast, in partlcular. Sinilarly t.o the extent that disease control allows expansion of annual productlon in the OCP zones, Ehe coastal countrles share the beneflts. I3. Control of the onchocerclasis vector ln West African conditions thus inherently involves differential sharing of benefl.ts. The costs (regardless of how they are flnanced) also vary, and the individual country benefit-cost relatlons are dlfferent. At the same time there are large "externalities" in each country's action. If the cont,rol progrElm ls lneffective Ln one country, it affects not only the at-risk populatlon ln that country, but t,hose in neighboring countries as we1I. In t.he absence of the regional fiscal insti- tutions, this provides a speclal rat,lonale for external financing of the , PrograItr. 14. Since the economic impact and inplications of the OCP vary between countries, uniform approaches to the region's economic development problems risk being inapproprlate. Enphasis on settlement of new lands, for example, ll The Rapport Mensuel (Se pt. 1977) of the Penaanent Advisor, Development Plannlng Group, Onchocerciasis Development ProJect Republlc of Benin states the following. "Concerning the determination of zones abandoneC because of onchocerciasis, dlscusslons and field visits allow the foilow- ing concluslon; unlike other countries such as Ehe Upper Volta there are no villages which have been abandoned because of onhocerciasis. Several explanations have been put forward, but need to be verified: (1) The virulence of transmission ls weaker than ln the Black Vo1ta, because the river flow is less steady; (2) the existence of fertile soils far from rivers . . .tt -7 - is appltcable only ln a few of the countrtes, and partlcularly in UPPer Volta. Slmtlarly a plannlng methodology directed toward gettlement prograrns may not flt the plannlng needs of OCP countrlee where forual resettlement echemes are presently of relatlvely llttle lnterest or prlorlty -- €ogo I M411, Nlger, BenLn, Ivory Coast. Moreover, the concept of the rrOCP area" or thettonchocerclasls free zone" as a unlt of economic planning wlthin each country has varied meanlng. In tFre Upper Volta, the OCP area covers almost the whole country. In Malt, the distinctlon between the 'ronchocerciasls zonett and other parts of southern Mall ls very tenuous. The rr0nchocerclasls zone" is aoong the best endowed areas of Mall. In the four coastal countrles, on the other hand, the "onchocerclasLs zones" are the most dlsadvantaged reglons. 15. The central polnts ln thls chapter nay be summarlzed as follows. The "crowded plateaux - empty valleys" paradlgm is not general in the OCP region. Denographic pressures and the factors explalning the distrlbutlon of population are not the same ln each of the seven Btates of the OCP area. Onchocerclasls Ls more crltlcal a development constraint in some of the count,ries than ln others. Ttre OCP ls an entonological unit, not an economlc one. Few econoroic generallzatlons are fulIy appllcable to the OCP zone of the seven participatlng OCP countrles. Uniform approaches to developent plannlng or econonic policy are therefore unllkely to be eqr:ally sultable for all the countrLes ln question. -8- III. TIIE ECONO}IIC IMPACT OF ONCHOCERCIASIS CONTROL 15. The OCP, like all disease control programs, has two objectives: to inprove human welfare in t.he affected area and to accelerate economic developnent. It is essenEial to underscore the hr:mani.tarian dimension, as we embark on analysts of the economlc impact of the program. Ihe reduction of hrman mlsery is one of the ends of economic developnnent, so disease control programs are ends in themselves as well as means to economic growth. Morr over, better health is a "baslc needr" the satlsfactlon clf which is given high prlority both by local governments ln the OCP area and by the inter- natlonal donor community. Health projects like the OCP are therefore not Ehe same as projects for dams, textile mllIs or even roads, and should not have to be justified the saue way as these more purely "lnstrumental" projects. 17. Having said this, \.re now proceed ln the analysls that follows to set it aside, and to consider the OCP in a rrarrowly economic cost-benefit framework, much as any "ordinary" development project would be evaluated. Such an analysis ls essential to any overall assessment of economic inpact. 18. The generally-accepted nethodology for evaluation of health progrEltrs defines two main sets of benefits as flowLng frorn these Programs: (a) reduc- tions in lost working time (1.e., reduced death, disabillty and debility) and(b) reduction in costs of treatment. The beneflts are measured by the esti- nated incomes earned by those who would otherwise have dled, been disabled or weakened by the target disease or illness, plus treatnent costs no longer necessary wtren the disease ls elimlnated or controlled. 19. In the origlnal project docrnents, the economic benefits of OCP are not defined and measured in thls "standard" fashion. The ry-E"por.!. dot" Eention the conventional benefits of dlsease control, but the cost-benefit analysis in that report considers only "new lands" effects' In effect, the PAG economic methoaofogy I / couPles the vector control Prograg with a collec- tion of settlement ptoj".Ts whtch were Proposed to follow eontrol of oncho, and defines the benefits of vector control as Ehe output of these settlement projects. That is, the cosEs of vector control were added to the costs of ih.-ptoposed settlement projects, and these total costs were compared wlth the settlement project outputs to derlve a rate of return estimate' 20. Thls approach is innovative and ingenlous. But, aEong other problems, lt has a ma5or lnconvenlence: lt lnplles that lf the proposed "uttl"r"rrt projects do not coEe about, the expected rate of return of the project will not be attained, and any formal econoulc asaes$trent would to this extent have to be negatlve. Ihts, however, would not be correct' The "conventional" economlc benefits of a disease control progrm should be incorporated formally into benefit calculatlons and a broader view talren of See PAG Report Ch. VI and Annex VI-5'L/ Aryrye-r-q. The l'lethodologY of the Economic -9- new lands avallablllty (1.e., one not dependent only on the lntroductlon of formal settlement schemes). Such an approach, whlch wlll be outllned below and ln Appendlx II, gLves a clearer picture of the economic benefits of the Progr€rm o 2L. In additlon to its substantlal hr.manltarlan benefits, the OCP will generate a broad range of economlc benefLts. The control of onchocerclasls increases the quantlty and/or quallty of productive factors -- labor and land -- ln the OCP area, and this ls the baslc lnpact of the progrErm. With respecE to the labor factor, the control of S. damnosum leads to a probable lncrease ln productivity for three prlnciple r.E6]iTI- (a) In the absence of vector control sone proportlon of the populatlon ln the affected zone would develop inpalred vlsion. Others would become bltnd. Contrlbuttons to output would decllne for the former, disappear or dlnlnish sharply for the latter. The avoidance of loss of output from reduced vislon and from bllndnese ls the first source of labor-related economlc benefits. (b) The paraslte Oncocerca volvulus presr:mably affects hrrmsn performance like all parasites -- lt weakens the organLsm, naking lt more vulnerable to other dlseases. Wlth the reduction ln onchocerclasts prevalence and eeverlty, people ln the OCP zone w111 be healthler, hence rnore energetlc and capable of harder wori<. This reductLon of oncho-lnduced debility 1s a second source of labor productivtty increase. (c) The "nuisance effect" of black fly ls ellnlnated or sharply reduced. Wlthout vector control, farners cultivating ln areas close Eo streaEs and rivers can be bltten hundreds, even thousands of times ln a day. With the removal or reduction of the fly population these farmers can work better and longer. 22. In most economlc analyses of health proJects, these labor-related effects are the maln source of economlc benefits, and they are measured by the estlmated increases ln output due to reductlons ln deblllty, absenteeism, and bllndness. The mlsslon dtd not try to develop ln detail a cost-beneflt analysls along these conventlonal llnes; th.e labor-related beneflts of the OCP are probably secondary to the "1and-creatlonrr effects, and in any event. not enough is flrmly known about thelr nagnitude -- either ln the OCP or frm experience elsewhere -- to allow credible results. 23. It ls nonet,heless of some lnterest to explore the matEer brlefly, to see what inslghts such analysls mlght provlde as to the relative lopor- tance of the dlfferent sources of economlc beneflts, and thelr orders of magnitude. We have put t,ogether calculatlons of aggregate benefits under a likely seE of assumptl.ons about output effects of reduced bllndness, eye- slght lmpalrment, deb1llty and nulsance. The calculattons are glven ln Appendix II, along with an explanatlon of their derlvaElon. t0 - 24. The exercise yields two main conclusions: (a) The direct labor-related benefits of vector control, by themselves and unwelghted for income dlstribution inpacts, appear to be rather modesE. Table I ln Appendix Il gives a range of beneflt estiuates under various assrmPtions about blindness incidenc.e, output losses through deblllty and dlsabillty, and the narglnal prodrrct of labor. (b) The analysis confirms thar the avoidance of blindness is the major source of economic benefits' even with the asstmptlon that onchocerciosis-caused physical weakness and disability reduce individual output by as much as l0 percent. 25. That these labor-related benefits of onchocerciasls control apPear modest relatlve to the cosfs of the control prograD should not be surprising. Such an outcome is almost lnevitable, given the low incomes of the target population; with such low incomes, the lncremental lmpact of better health must necessarlly be relatively sma1l. 26. For the sane reasons, however, the benefits of these low income beneficiarles of rhe program should be heavily weighted. Ihe approximately one milllon people affected by the vector control Progran are amoag the poorest in the world. Average incomes in the affected reglons are under $ZS p". capital in Ghana, Ivory Coast, anC Togo the overall national incomeper capita is higher, but Ehe OCP area covers the Poorer northern zones where incomes are much below the national atrerage, and where access to social services is extremely restrlcted. 27. These results, moreover, refer to the laborrelated benefits. But major economic benefits of the onchocerciasis control Program derive also from its "new lands" aspect. These benefits come fron the additional output generaLed by migration from t'old" tottnewt' lanis. Gross benefits can be defined aS ouEput produced by mlgratlon fromttoldttto ttnewttlands, plus the increase in outpuE from an anti-erosion effect -- a larger area retraining cultivable in the "old" lands ln comparison wlth what would be cultivable in rhe absence of OCP-related migration. I_/ To get net benefits the following costs have ro be deducted: (l) the reductlon ln output on o1d lands as a resulr of departure of migrants, (2) the cosEs of migration, and (3) "comple- mentary costsr" those investments required to bring new lands into produc- tion. ?- / rl This is mainly due to lengthened fallows. Ttlat lt nay be significant is suggested by numerous observers (see Para. 30). 2l See Appendix II for a more detailed Clscussion. - tl - 28. Measurement of net benefits fron new lands developent presents great dtfficultles. The consequences of nlgration on productivity on "old" lands; the kind of migratlon (relatively spontaneous or heavily controlled), the nature and level of complementary lnvestment expenditures -- all have to be specified. However, these are hlghly variable, and many of the underlying data are unknown. 29. Slnulated estltrates, however (glven in Appendix II), lndicate that net benefiEs fron new lands avallabllity would not have to be Improbably high in order to nake the financial returns from the OCP attractive. For example, using a 10 percent rate of dlscount, the present value of the benefits from new lands would only have to total $60 mtllion to bring total program benefits uP to total costs under certaln assrnptlons about the length of the control progran. The annual flow of beneflts lnvolved ls quite low -- an average of $7 million per year over 25 years wlth one set of asstmptlons -- and is presnmably easily attalnable. L/ 30. The erosion-reducing effect due to emigratlon made possible by new lands accesslblllty nay by ttself generaEe a signiftcant flow of benefits. That this ls ltkely is suggested by a recent FAO study wtrlch states that 25percent of the cultlvable area of the Mossi Plateau roay be rendered unusable by 1990 if present trends continue. 31. Earlier analysls used dlscount rates of l0 and 15 percent and atine horlzon no longer than twenty-five years. These "conventlonai" rates of discount are based on assrmptlons about the productivity of developrent resources In alternative uses, and the twenty-flve year cut-off is used inpart because at 10-15 percent discount rates, present values of costs andbenefits beyond twenty-five years are usually too snal1 to be significant.It can be argued that these discount rates are too high for projects which are so centrally alned at poverty-strlcken populations ln poor countries, andin countries whlch have llmited absorptlve capacity. In short, according tothis view, lower rates of discount trore truly reflect opportunity costs for the resources involved ln vect.or control. Moreover, the control of oncho- cerciasis wlll improve livlng condltlons for generations of West Africans yet unborn. It will also contribute to a slorrlng down of the peruanent destruc-tion of natlonal resources (eroslon vla shortened fallows), which will benefitfuture generatlons. For these reasons, it can be argued that lower discount rates and longer tlme horlzons are tnore appropriate ln evalr:ating programs such as the 0CP. As is shown ln Appendlx II, extendlng the tine horizon and,lowering the discount rate leads to dramatlc increases ln the economic returns of the project. 32. A11 of this confirms what ls well-knorm and has been stressed earlier: that benefit-cost analysls of projects such as oCp is hlghly sensitive Eo t.he assumptLons adopted, and cannot therefore be leaned on tooheavlly. It also lndicates, however, that wlth certaln not inplausible L/ See Appendix II for further dlscussion. t2 assumptlons about productivlty effects, nerf, lands beneflts, rates of dlscount and time horizons, the purely economic analysls of the OCP ytelds favorable resul E s . 33. We have cerciasls control stressed the need to correctly deflne benefits from oncho-for two main reasons. (a) If -- as is common practlce ln evaluatlons, rre were to assess the economic impact of OcP by looking at the expected internal rate of return as specified in the orlglnal project documents, then the assessment would be rather somber, since only one of the proposed five formal settlement projects has materialized and on a smaller scale than envisaged. Deflnltion of the Program's economlc beneflts In terms of labor-relaEed and more general new lands effects makes for a nore relevant as well as a more optimistlc assessnent. (b) The dependence of the vector control progran benefits on ensuing devel.opment projects (eepectalty fornal set.tlement project.s) leads to a dubious llnking in progran terms. It encourages the widespread view that because the vector control program has reduced biting and trans;m; rates, new develop- ment programs and projects should be lnitiated ln the OCP area. This may be so. Vector control wlIl create net development opportunities. Local governments and external assistance agencles should certalnly be attentlve to the new project possibilities which are ltkely to exlst ln those areas. Hor ever, vector control and development projects are nonetheless quite separate, conceptually. Because of onchocerciasis control human misery is reduced, people are healthler, and hence have the potential to work harder and better, and cultivable land is made more accesslble for productive use. These will be the benefits of vector control. The lntroduction of develop- ment projects in the OCP zone, once onchocerciasls is under control, depends on the soclal advantages and economic costs and benefits of the specific projecte proposed, and on whether these projects are more deslrable ln terms of national objectives than alternative expendlture posslbllities. Special weight can of course be given to projects ained at more balanced regional developnent or neeting baslc needs of the poorest groups. But ln assessing proposals for development programs for the OCP area, the dlsease control cosfs are most appropriately regarded as sunk costs. - 13 - IV. EMPTY LAI.IDS 34. An lnportant aspect of the economic developent inpact of the OCp concerns the openlng up of lands whlch could not be cultivated because of thepresence of S. Damnosum. The pAG Report sald: l/ ...ttonchocerciasis, or river blindness ... constl-tutes for the (oCP) area the most important stngle deterrent to hrnan settlement and the subsequent economlc development of uanyfertlle valleys, which lie uninhabited and unproductive. Thls situatlon inhibits the develo[ment of the vast savannahbelt of the Volta River Basln area, and countless thousands of fanllies have left productive ancestral lands to crowd the adJacent areas where low-yieldlng poor soil predominates.r' 35. In the avallable project documentatlon the mission could find nodetailed and systematic assessment of the extent of the "empty 1ands" whichthe OCP would help open up for cultivatlon, nor could we locate any detailedpedological or agro-economic analysis of thelr potential. Ar estlnation isincluded f,n the PAG Report, which indicates that the program would rn4ke651000 km- of "new lands" avallable of which a thlrd, i.e.22,000 kmz wouldbe suitable for agricultural purposes. The mlsslon therefore nade special efforts to determine the quantlty of new lands whlch are belng oade availablein the OCP area, as well as soll types. In doing thls the nlislon recognizedthat lt would not. be posslble to obt.ain an accurate and unamblguous estimatein view of the limitations of solls inforuatlon at present available and that any estimate lt came up with would stlIl provlde only an lndlcatlon of orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, we belleved lt would be usefr-rl to apply a certain rigor to thls particular aspect and ln dolng this to take lnto account know-ledge acqul-red slnce L972. This lnitially involved brlngtng rogether exlsring maps of topography, land use, agrlcultural potential, population dlstrlbution, etc. and reduclng them to a common scale by planlneterlng. 36. Estimates were derived as follows: (a) "occupied,' or populated areas were determined from population distrlbutlon maps and/or by lnferences based on hectarage required fo5 subslstence, and lands with a populationdensity of less t.han 20 per km' were considered to be avallable for settlepent;(b) areas comnitted to forest reserves and natlonal parks lrere set aside;(c) remaining areas consLdered "available" were classified by sotl type. Ttrehectarages thus derlved are "gross", in the sense that they lnclude all "non-popurated lands", lncludlng areas that are not suitable for agr6lturaldevelopment, because thelr solls are poor - part of the area ls covered bylitho soils which consist of rock debris, lron pans and gravel at the sotl surface and/or have very shallow profiles, mountalno,rs "ieas, rock outcrops, | / PAG Report )P8. I 14 - etc. They also include land assoclated wiEh hrran settlenent - roads, dikes, lrrigation canals, houses, schools etc. Ihe "grossrr hectarage was reduced by varying percentages to take account of these factors. The result gives "net" hectarage estimates of land avallable for cropplng. Thls was then classified into six types: (l ) blqqeutlqptrlq srlle; (2) alluvia1 and colluvial soils in the river valleys and bottonlands bas fonds ; (3 ) vertisols, heavy clay solls, hard to work and poorly drained; (4) ferralitic soils with good physical properties (deep profiles, fine texture, poroslty, good molsture retention), but 1ow ln najor nutrients;(5) ferruginous soils physically anC blochenically shal1ow, coar6e-textured, slowly permeable, sensitive to erosion, very iow in main nutrients and in organlc matter; (5) unsuitable soils include soils with iron pans or iaterlte graveJ- at the surface, very sandy solIs, rock outcrops, sEones, etc. 37. The basic findlngs are surnmarized in Table 2. Itrey show the totai(gross) Iand area not uEillzed for agricultural purposes in the oncho zone, and amounEs estimated to be avallable for agrlculEural developm.ent. 0n the basis of these tables and the assutrBtions underlying then, the Program wouli help nake avallable some 276,000 km'of land of whlch some 1341000 to 154,000 km' would be suitable for agricultural purposes. About two thirds of :he soils are Class 5 ferruginous troplcal sol1s, typical for West African savannah regions in general. 38. It is essential to stress agaln chat these estimates have to be taken with a great deal of cautlon, for the figures are only indicatj.ve. They give only rough orders of magnitude rather than precise statements aboutttavailable" land. The figures are based on general data, mostly of a recon- nalssance nature, supplemented by some more detailed, iocally available information. In some cases, no suitable lnformation was avaiiable, and esEimating methods were particularly crude. Furr-heroore, the concept of "available land" lrself is lmpreclse; it should ldealIy be anal-yzeci in a dynamic framework which wou-l-d take into account the effects of teehnologlcai I lnnovatlons, potential fertllity etc., whlch has not been done in the present analysis. Finally, there is reason to belleve that some of the area in question may not be readily t'aval1ablett. There are, for instance, a number of facEors for which we make no reductions in determining net hectarage, but which may present serious obstacles to productive utillzation of the ttnew land" in Ehe OCP area. Some have to do with soii and topographical charac- t.eristics, others with medical hazards, and perhaps others yet unciesignated, also exist. Some major constraints that are knorrn to present obstacles to use of thettnew landsttare listed below. A11 are constraints in an economic sense, since Eheir removal may require subsEantial resource costs. (a) Drinking water - In large parts of the area the geological substratum is the pre-Cambrian basement complex, whieh is notorious for 1Es poor acquifer qualities. Except on bottom- lands close to the rivers therefore, substantial stretches t-- c') .1 @ n .1 \o(U F- CV F- t4 n r-1\o on "1\o .-{ .-1\oo r-{ (n @F r-t ,1 \o C\JA@ -i r.- ts-- C\I @oomd cd .{ ,{ojt).40,j'.{Ar{ {JEP ..{od -lU+)d ..{ .d rLt{aJr{l{tnmCrOtrq{q{a oilil[FJlrr\O rn o(\l J odotr(no mqr A o dp coO\O(D Fl ri .r{ dO '.{coo>o\,o\ o '-{ '{EdA(JAO\cil{l(ft .+) og.{.{qrdo ..{ @ i5?a{JjOr-{f< t{ r{ C,Pd> drirljF{Ol(n .; oA -ht:r rt .s3 o Ei O\FO\rn@Or-.,l.\O t'- (n @ r-{ (n r-{ }-{ 4s- \ot-c\o(nrr) n O\ (n \.oO\O(n(n -l Cn C\l \oo(o \olr\ o .{J oF\oocooN(O-iC\J\.o-,,l.O\\O FFC\ll'r-tfn\OA.$C\J(r)CU FJJJCUF({) .J o (n J rn F \O5\O.aO\CV\O11(/)F5lr\n \oorr\o\Fo\.itr\ @ O\ t\ F O -l\orr\(vo(n@ ri ca r{ (n Fl FFOJ\OO\tr\OJOO\O\-{FO\tn (n O\ \O .i .:t t--(vnA.j,cv F@tr\\OF{FJ(nd.9r-{(n\o@ o(fl(n ?4 OrN(n(fi(nO@(nF\o(fl(nF@O(n(rlA OJ& o "1d{J o Er o (\l E ?1E ojE A\OE .{lr\E ,r a .t) o lr +i a dt{gr c k oqr c o .p <J ad ok t o{Jq{ d (, Ap d r{ .,{ d d OJq d!d .P o o, ( OJg o o P ,i a o E ,{ oti tr o {J o(, ot k oPq{ d A) r{p cl A d d a)adt{dP C' a)E lt .{*i ojludt r.ldt +)lol 0rl .cl lal ol ol rrlol Il()l E oooA tr o x,o Fro r.; zoH Ho A t4F fqo o H E{ C)H}f 0{A E{p o EHB o2 icEi H1Bl }fl HIol aDi r*lol r': I o.I Hi x ,q r,j E Aoo ?H t']d 3H =o2 l-.1 E]?t ;lot (,)l t'l Ioi <t 5lol r'r I !El olHI9ldlHI \o\ojcVotr1J@O\lno\.1 .1 \O -l ri O\oO\nC)OO\o\or.)AorY-)-J'@O\|r\O\r,,..-l\r.) .{ 1. el O(\r\O(nO\@(nO\C\r\Or\\OF(f) -:f OJ .1 F OJ \OA(n.4 OJri @ .s (n o\lr\ +)dg,+) d.{OOo5 Cdht{t{ 'HCt{.AOOttJFC9-rtsunO.c>d.d.)o,FqoHt'.jHb at o t{ o uFI OJ .dP od(,)(J o FltFttlt c!OJx r{E () (\tx A& o CUR -.1E tt lt-{t @o(n oA 5 cl C\J o\ CU .J(v(n o\o(n lt tt ltll A F{ Ft (n (Y1 \o(norrl (\tFo\O,-IJOJ(VJL^F O.' GI oJ collFlllrlJ Fl OJ J\()ttoJttF{F Fl C! Oc)ll(f)llF-tO\ -t C\l GJ A AE (5 NE (, tl - t6 - of the OCP region are llkely to be w'Ithout ready access to drinking water. Ihls was strlktngly conflrned ln two recently conpleted studies - one of the Otl Valley ln Togo, the other of the Bougourlba Valley in Upper Volta. 1/ Ilowever, the absence of potable water ls not necessarily an absolute prohi- bition on land use. It may be possible to find ways to provlde hrater at reasonable costs. In some countries, for example, underground water retention structures have been successfully used to cope wlth the problem. (b) Flooding and waterloggtng - Llany of the valleys and bas fonds of the OCP area are subJect to frequent flooding and the solls then suffer from excesslve moisture. Topographical and clfunatic factors conspire to glve this problen special severl-ty. The valleys tend to be long and narrow, whJ.ch makes protectlon agalnst flooding especially difficult; dralnage by gravity up to now has not produced the desired results. It is not only the alluvlal soils of the lmuedlate river bed regions which are involved. The vertisols of the reglon are also coromonly waterlogged because of thelr flat, depresslon-llke position and thelr heavy clay textures and poor structures . (By sone unfortunate trick of nature, the same flood plains, which contaln large waterlogged areas, also contaln some soils which are so highly permeable that they Present dlfficultles to irrigated cultivatlon.) To cope tl.ith the discharges on these flood plains, flood protection works, and agricultural drainage works would be needed Eo control the excess rainfall. (c) Heavy soils - The verEisols and relaEed !91sve].!lQus. are often dlfficult Eo work by traditional Eeans. Iloreoever, there is a special tiEe constraint in utilization of these soils: the perlod when the ground ls workable and planting can occur is very restricted. Appropriate land preparation methods (mechanization, oxen) and farrning systeEs could be usefully developed. The work done by ICRISAT on the develo5 ment of tillage technlques and farning systems would seem to be particularly appropriate for the developoent of vertisols in the program area. (d) Trypanosomiasis - The vectors of trypanosomiasis and of onchocerciasis tend to occupy sfunllar habitats - Particularly forestedriverbanks.i.I1thoCPcontro111ng@,the presence of various species of Glossina has becoue more u Togo/PNUD, I"llse en valeur des Terres Lib6r6es de nventaire de SEDES/Republique d 1'Onchocercose: I ment de la Va1 edel 0ri Ra rtd Etude. (\977). FAO' Etude Morpho- pedologique de a Vallde de Ia Bougouri ba, I : I ,000 ,000. Dec . 197 6. rammation du D eves Ressources et P -L7- apparent a constralnt to settlement and development ln sone of the OCP countrles. It seems to be an Lmportant factor accounting for the paucity of the population and the linlted use of land ln the OCP areaa of Nlger, l,tali and Ivory Coast and perhaps throughout the southern parts of the OCP area. It should be noted that this I'constralnt'r 1s being attacked at varlous levels - by expanded lnternational research on t6e tse, for example, and by speclal research ln the Ivory Coast and elsewhere ln the reglon. (e) Many of the rlver valleys are used by herders; they are part of annual transhtrmarc€Bo Ttrus, wtren the Sissilli Valley(Upper Volta) was lnvestlgated for potentlal settlenent proJect sltes it was discovered to be heavlly occupled by Fulani and their herds. Lands bell.eved to be "emptyttfrequently have claimants. Ttre land nay be ln long fallow, or - more llkely - sone group clalms tradltlonal rights over its use, even though it ls not part of thelr cropping cycle. Settlement proJects sometlmes unloose an army of claimants to land assumed to be enpty though in general these lssues of land Eenure are resolved rather arolcably ln the framework of traditlonal law. 39. This discussion makes clear that. there are many obstacles other than onchocerclasls to t,he productlve utlllzatlon of the rrempty lands'r ln the OCP areaa. There are rnany inpllcatlons. Settlement prograns andprojects, whlch at best are very dlfficult, wlll be especlally difficult in the areas where onchocerciasis ls belng brought under control, glven the range of obstacles mentioned above. l,toreover, basic data requlred for facllltatlng or organlzing settlement on new lands are very rare; land developent, (road deslgn, draLnage, irrlgatlon, soil and water consenratlon) for example, requires knowledge about relief, gradlente, length of slopes and other topo- graphlcal data, almost none of whlch exists. Detalled surveys, on a scale of I:51000 or l:10r000 are also often necesaary. Settlement lrill therefore inevltably go slowly. 40. It is evident that the economic development of the OCP area will require speclal efforts. Baslc lnformatlon truat be generated -- studies of solls, topography, rainfall and river flow patterns, etc. Infrastructure must be created, especially roads. And perhaps most challenglng w111 be lrater development and control, whlch are keys Eo utlllzatlon of the large flood plains. The long and narrow configuratlon of the valleys and bas fonds in relation to the heavy runoffs durlng the ralny season, nakeEure Protectlon agalnst floodlng dlfficult and expensive. Indlcatlve of the problem ls the hlstory of earthen dams ln the Upper Volta. Stralned by the Pressures of concentraEed, heavy rainfallr large nuobers of these dans glve way each year. Close and detalled study, pllot efforts, suitable construction nethods drainage syst.ens, careful malntenance-al1 wll1 be needed for effective water control schemes. Utillzatlon of the nany thousands of hectares of bas-fonds and schemes involvlng less than full rrater control w111 be easLer. rn-In-y case, further studies, and experience will make clearer the nagnit,ude of the area's enpty lands and the ease wlth whlch they wtll be nade productive. 18 V. SETTLEMENT POLICY AND MIGRATION 41. The vector control progran has helped open up large new land areas for potential exploitation. Two key questlons arise: how much and which of these potentlally exploitable new lands should be brought into cultivation, and how should thelr utllization be organized? The ansrrer Eo the first question was suggested earlier: vector control increases Ehe ltkellhood of new econonlc opportunlties in the OCP zone, but creates no necessary presrmp- tlon that settlement or other projects should be lntroduced. It is clear that given their basic dlfferences in cLrcunstances, there is likeIy to be conslderable difference between OCP countries ln the attention and priority glven to formal new lands development programs. 42. In reality, only in Upper Volta has this been a subject of najor pollcy concern. The other OCP countries, faced with less intense demographic pressures, have proceeded experimentally and cautlously in empty lands devei- opment and settleuent programs. In the Ivory Coast there were in the late 1960's a nuuber of pilot settlement schemes in Ehe northern region, anci there is now under dlscussion a small settlement project in the northeast, the Kolodio-Blneda scheme. In Togo, slmllarly, there are two projects in the Kara Region, a FED-financed scheme with 200 settlers near Lama-Kara, and a UNDP-assisted project for 150 fanilies ln the same area. In Benin there is no settlement actlvlty at presentl an irrigated rice project at Malanville ln the Nlger Va1ley was recently transforned from a settlement-type operation to a straight wage employrnent arrangement. In Nlger, a proposal for a smaIl, experimental settlement scheme in the Say District is being reviewed by the National Onchocerciasis CommiEEee. In Ghana and I'Iali there appear to be no formal settlement programs under way or planned, other than those associated with dam projects. 43. In several of t.he OCP counEries t.here ls said to be soue tendency for cultivation to spread gradually lnto areas where onchocerciasis is under control. This occurs as increased knowledge (acquired via agricultural extension) and technological improvemenEs (the use of oxen, notably) al1ows cultivatlon of larger areas per farm household. So the occupation and devel- opment of the OCP empty lands should not. be thought of as deriving exclusively from long distance migration or formal settlement schemes. 44. Nonetheless, there ls a big dlfference between the size and scope of Upper Volta's migraEion and settlement activlties and those of the other OCP states. Only ln Upper Volta, where the Volta Valley Authority (AVV) is engaged in exEenslve resettlement. programs, and where much spontaneous migraEion occurs, is there OCP area resett.lenent activity of any magnitude. The reasons why seEElement activity ls so import.ant. ln Upper Volta have been menEioned earlier. The Upper Volta desperatel-y needs its rrnew lands." On the }lossi plateau, 60 percent of the country's popuiatlon Live on a third of its land area. Population densities over wide areas exceed 40 per squre kilometer, more Ehan the land can )-ong carry wlth existing technology. Everywhere fallows are being shortened, souetimes drastically. Erosion is -19- said to be intenslfying, with frlghtening effects; as noted earlier, a recent FAO study predlcts that in the absence of changes ln cultivatlon practlces 25 percent of the Mossi plateau's cultlvated land will be unusable by 1990. Already a large number of Voltalcs migrat,e: 9601000 were estLmated to bellvlng abroad in the nid-I970's, and lnternal nlgrants number about 260rOOO. l/ Alnost 20 percent of the Upper Volta's populatLon has been mLgratory in recenE years, and a higher proportion of yourlg men. 45. Annual migration figures are crude, and fluctuate widely. According to a comPrehensive 1973 ORSTOM study, the number of Mossi who settled outside Ehelr traditlonal areas rose from 851000 to 1960 to 1581000 ln 1972, an aver- age Lncrease of 61000 people a yeat. The nrnber of people estimat,ed t,o have moved to other areas grew from 11000 a yeat ln the early 1960's to 81000 ayear ln the early 1970's. According to some estlmates the drought led to a rise in the annual rate of net internal nlgratlon to 15-201000 a year ln 1974 and 1975. The estlmated current flow is 10-151000 a year, nost (65 percent,) to the upPer parts of the Black Volta. The annual flow of external nigrantsls estimated to be 2001000, of whlch two-thirds are believed to be seasonal migrants (returning each year) and 25 percent are temporary enigrants (2-5 years away). A11 of these figures are subject to wide margins of error; itis indeed essentLal that. nany aspects of the mLgratLon phenomenon, including uagnitude of flows, receive much more study. 46. Lack of slmllar pressure of people on the land in the other gCp countrLes ls part of the reason for the marked differences between the UpperVolta and the other OCP states in terms of preoccupatLon wlth settlement and enpty lands development. Except for the relatlvely snall crowded region around Korhogo, the sinilarly crowded Bawku'Bolgatanga region in northeast^ Ghana and the Lama-Kara reglon of Togo, with lts density of 300 persons/kmzpopulation Pressures are less severe ln Ehe other st,ates. People from these crowded pockets have migrated to the more developed southern regions for decades, and net growth of resident population has been generally 1ow in these zones. It may in facE be difficult to attract settlers into the newlands, slnce it is not clear that settlement can be nade sufficiently rpmunerative to aEtract these mlgrants to new lands, as is suggested, for example, in the Oti valley ReporE (Togo) - at least for some time. rn some countries, notably Ghana, recent growth of mechanlzed cultlvat,ion of riceln the river valleys of the northern and upper regions has probably absorbed conslderable northern labor; and more lmportant, potential northern Ghana emigrants to new lands have found enployment opportunlty further south, in the cocoa reglons, partlcularly since 1969, when leglslation discouragingforeign employment in Ghana was introduced. In }Lall, there are no "emptylands" in the usual sense; population densltles ln the OCP area do not appearto be dlfferent Ehan in comparable non-ocp areas in that count,ry. L/ K.C. Zacharlah and J. ConddtAfrica, (provisional draft) phic Asoects of lllgration in WestDemopraIBR-D, June 1978. -20- 47. In some of the OCP countries sparslty of population may be a constralnlng fact,or ln some cases. In MaI1, new settlement projects would compete with the Office du Nlger for the avallable supply of domestic migrants. The 500 ha. Niger Valley rlce project (Malanville) in Benin has experlenced severe perlodic labor shortages; alternative Lncome-earnlng possibilitles in the region are such as to make settlement (or wage labor in irrigated rlce projects) unattractlve to Eany local resldents. the Ivory Coast and Ghana have been tradltional lmporters of labor, mainly frou Upper Volta, l'1a11 and Togo. 48. The record of settlement scheme experlence, both historical and comteuporary, both in Africa and elsewhere, ]/ fs not particularly encour- aging, and this may be another reason for the low prlorlty accorded settlement schemes by planners in nost. OCP count.rles. Ghana's Volta River resettlenent project and the resettlement of 801000 people displaced by the l(oussou dam in the Ivory Coast have both proved costly and it is not clear that techni- cally and/or economlcally acceptable agricultural packages have been worked out for the reseEtled populations. 2/ The UNDP Lama-Kara project in Togo began as a small FAO project (160 h;. ln three years). It was disbanded in L972. The project was not really a seEtleEent project; lt was raEher a farner training effort. It was resuscltated in 1974, stlll wlth a tralning focus. It has developed about 50 ha. and has 150 particlpating fanilies. A FED- flnanced project has a more conventional settlenent character, and has rooved forward snoothly. Called the Mise en Valeur de 1a Vallee de la Kara this project has settled 250 fanilies Ln four years, 220 of then froro the densely populated Kabrye mounEai.ns. It will be expanded to 11000 fanllles in lts | / Cf. R. Chambers, Settleuent Schemes in Tropical Africa The Settlement of ricultural Land: An Issues Pa €rr rience with r tura Deve tin 1969; IBRD, 1977; J.C. de lcaI Africa,I.Ii L967; Mlchael son, evelo to r c s PoIic ssues In Latin America, 1973; K.P zet, Ploneer Settlement in the Asiatic Tropics, L945. 2/ Cf. R. Chambers, The Volta Resettlement Projqct, I97O; and Rowena Lawson, "An InEerlm Economic Appralsal of the Volta Resettlement Scheme, tr Ln the Ni erlan Journal- of Economlcs and Soclal Studles, vo1. I0, /ll, lhrch 1968, pp. 5- I0 Ghana s Damogo seEtlement scheme, begun in the 1950's, also had unsatisfactory outcomes. (See DavlC Wllllams, The Probable Economlc EffecEs of the Eradlc at.ion of Onchocerclasis in Northern and and Upper Ghana, consullan,t's Report, WHO, 1970. ). -21 - next four year phase. Thls modest scheme ls one of the Eost successful settlement actlvltles ln the reglon. l/ 49. In additlon to hlstorlcal experience wlth attenpted settlement schemes, the growth of knowledge about eoll potentlals, costs and problens of drainage systems, etc. has glven pause to efforts once recommended as feasible and deslrable. Thus the PAG Report recoomended, on the basis of preliminary knowledge, that a najor settlenent scheme be explored for the reglon of the confluence of the Bou and Bandama. Hore study and experlence wlth the area's soil and topographtcal conditLons have apparently led to the postponement of this proposal. 2/ 50. l,Ihatever the reasons - and there is much that remains tmclear - settlement actlvity and sizeable spontaneous occupatlon of enpty lands appears to be mainly an Upper Volta phenomenon. Not surprlslngly, therefore, public pollcy dlscusslon about occupatlon of the new lands has arisen nainly in the Upper Volta. Thls questlon tends to be debated ln polar tertrs - "organizedtt or ttcontrolledtt settlement versus ttspontaneoust' migratlon. Whtle many issues separate partl.sans of solutions leanlng toward one or the other of these poles, the princlpal dlfference centers on ecology. Spontaneous migration ls widely seen as destructive of the soll; "migration sauvage ," it has been called. Settlers of new lands are sald to apply nasteful and careless nethods of cultlvaEion, mine the solI, then rnove on. Controlled settleroent, lt ls argued, is essential "in order to prevent uncontrolted and irreverslble exploltation of one of West Africa's few remalulng and relatlvely untouched natural resources ." 3 I The prlnclpal hestEatlons expressed about controlled settlement are based on lts high costs, lts heavy demands on admLnLstrative and managerial skills and organlzatlonal capaclty, lts llnited capacity to absorb the full flow of mlgratlon. Ll Ttre direct installatlon costs per fanlly r€re about $2,OOO in the initialfour year phase. These r^rere not total costs; Eany of the roads and wells were provlded without charge to the proJect by public agencles (mainly the regional SORAD and the Sokode Service H raull ue) and some rrere donated by private charitable institutLons. In the seeond phase 180 nn. FCFA out of a total budgeted auount of. 620 (excluding contlngencies of I20 mn.) ls allocated to houslng, which w111 ralse the cost perfanily lnstalled. (cr. Republlque de Togo, l{lnistEre du D5veloppeuenr Rural, SORAD , Rdglon de la Kara, ricole dans Ia Valld(Agroprogress, ju1n, 1977 2l BEM/DRc/R6publique de la Cote d'IvoLre, lllnlstEre d.u Plan, Etudes d'And ement Int 16 des Basslns versants re Nord (Korhogo en Valeur boundlal 1 ferkessedougou) FAO/IBRD, Economic Develo du Sol , tome 10, avrll, L976. t of Areas Freed from Onchocerciasis in Dahomey. Ghana. Mall. Togo and Upper Volta Rome, October, 1975 Les pro 1t FLnal Pro et Feb. L97 ration de Mise de la Kara -22- 51. In terms of policy, the questlon is not whether to aseist migrants, but how. Mlgrants into new lands wlll norrally need eone help -- wlth soll or production problems, marketlng, the bulldtng of roads, schools, dlspen- sarles. So the relevant policy problem ls the dtscovery of approprlate degrees and types of organlzed settlement. L'Autorltd d'Ar6r,agement des Va116es des Volta (AW) 52. The AVV was created ln 1974 to organLze on ecologically and agrono- mlcally sound llnes the resettlement of the rlver valleys ln whlch vector control was effective. It follows a relatlvely highly organized approach to settlement. Detalled field studles precede chol-ce of eettlenent locations; extensive lnfrastructure is bullt; land ls cleared nechanically, and settlers receive food their flrst year or two. A cropplng pattern is set down for farmers to fo11ow. 53. In the few years sLnce lts lnception the AW has considerable achievements to its credlt. It has undertaken an exEraordlnary range of studies - topographical, hydrological, pedologlcal, soclo-economic and other. l/ tt has put lnto place a hlghly structured organization for planning, studylng and managing Ehe complex work of ereating human settlements in little known, uncongenial environments. It has had to pLoneer in the ttnew landsr" and thereby come to grlps rrith all the obstacles to development noted in the previous chapEer. Its lnitial goals were extreoely ambitious: 650,000 people, or an lnplied annual setElement rate of 431000 people a year on a l5-year basis,32,000 a year on a 20 year basls.2l But exPerience has revealed the true magnltude and dlverslty of the obstacles tn Ehe way of rapid development of the "empty valleys." The fact that AW has succeeded in settling more than 11200 famllles on 51500 ha. ln its flrst flve years of ful1 operatlon is a najor achievement. more than a cause for criticism. Throughout its existence Ehe AW has had to bear the burden of an overly optimistic lnterpretation of the "abandoned valleys" hypothesis: that once onchocerciasls was under control, the rest would be easy. 54. The AVV is making a vital contrlbution to the task of assuring ecologically rational use of the new lands. But lt Is of necessity only a parrial contribuf,ion. By mid-I978 lt had succeeded ln settllng over 1200 families (about 7,OOO people) tn 26 villages (21 in the Whlte Volta,4 ln ghe Red Volta, I ln the Black Vo1ta) and lts current absorption rate is 300 families a year. According to the lntroductory sectlon of the recent Cortay Ll Between 1972 atd mid-1976, $3.2 mn. was spent on studies and research. LI The distribution was to be as follows: Red and White Volta val-leys: 175,000; Black Volta valleys: 1I5,000; lrrigated area, Bagre: 200,000; Tanema: 40,000; Karankasso, 120'000. -23- Report l/ ttre AW plans to settle 31000 farnllies a year over the coming flfteen years - a tenfold lncrease ln lts present rate. But the Report concentrates lts analysls on settlement of 2r7O0 fanllles ln the five year period 1978-1982, largely in the Whlte and Red Volta valleys. If AW successfully settles 21700 fanllles in the next five years, (which would be almost twice as hlgh a settlement rate as at present) lt would be absorbing about one-third of the estftnated number of nigrants who move lnto new lands each year.2l Ihere is also a rlsk that as AW puts down roads, spontaneous mlgrants w111 move ln on the edges of AW perlmeters, thus dlluting the ecologlcal ratlonale for controlled settlement. 55. Sone of the soils in the AW perfuneters present dtfficult tech- nlcal problems. The AW has concentrated lts activitles ln the l,ltrite Volta Valley, where 136,000 ha. are belleved to be suitable for settlement and capable of absorbtng 12r000 fanllies. In the exlsting settlement vilJ-ages vertisols and sols vertiques predomlnate. These are fert,ile, but heavy and tight in structure. The vertlsols can only be prepared for planting during a very linited period of the beginnlng of the rainy season wtren their moisture content is rlght. The sols vertlques are I lghter but require deeper cultiva- tion because of compaction in lower layers. It is not yet clear that farmers in the AW perlneters can Eeet the requlred condltions of tining and depth of cultlvation, even wlth the lntroduction of oxen. 56. Organized settlement operations requlre extensive inputs in uoney and other resources. Cost estlmates for AW vary, but none is below $ICr000 per fanlly settled. It employs some 500 people (34 expatriates), and has one extenslon worker per 25 famllles. Yet no one who has seen new settlers arrive in an AW vlllage can argue that servlces provlded to settlers are lu:<urious or abundant. 57. Some of AVV's problens and difficultles are "teething troubles;" AVV ls after all only five years old. Some arise from constraints on l-W's scale of operations due to lack of financing and llquidity. Some are not problems at all, but reflect excesslvely optlmistic expecEationsl settle- ment of new lands in the Volta Basln ls sinply a lot harder to carry out than was generally realized a few years ago. Some, finally, derive from the fact thaE AVV has chosen to concencrate on the l.lhlte VoLta where heavy soils predomlnate. This has had two consequences. First, these are difficult soi1s, the cultivatlon of which requlre speclal inputs and knowledge. Secondly, these are not the typlcal sol1s of Upper Volta; so AW's experience with cultivat.ion of these so1ls is not generally transferable to the bulk of the agricultural economy. rl Program Globale d'Etudes et d'I ments des Va116es des VoItas (I SynthEse et Recommendat.ions, p. nvestLssement de 1'AutoritJ d"" Aradnage- 978-82), Rapporr Fina1, Fev. 1978, 1. Socldt6 Cortay (previously Bei-Agrer). The nunber of spontaneous mlgranEs is lnperfectly known. Ihere is urgent need for an intensive siudy of thls phenomenon. ')/ -24- 58. The AW, then, is concerned wlth only a part of the agrlcultural development problem of the Upper Volta. It ls an lmportant Pert, wlth great relevance for the future welfare of the Voltalc people. But fundamental constraints on the Upper Volta's economic developent are rooted ln the low level of agricultural productivity on the Mossl plateau and other "old lands". Thls is where most Voltaics llve, and wtrere nost rrll1 continue to llve for some tlme. In addltlon to settlenenE efforts on the new lands, therefore, there ls urgent need to improve agrlcultural productlvtty on "old lands", and to introduce ne!, agricultural approaches among those who rrtll continue to farm these lands in the future. 59. It ls certaln that the AVV can and should play a maJor role in the agricultural developroent of the Upper Volta. It may be able to play this role nost effectively by concentrating on speclallzed actlvttles best suited to its unique capacities; and by seeklng experinental new roles addressed to the Upper Volta's fundanental needs ln agriculture. Moreover, the AW should welconl the collaboratlon of ORDg ln settlement actlvltles' as lras recommended in the recent Cortay (net-Agrer) Report, wlth resPect to the Bougourlba. 60. The following additLonal observatlonE on settlement pollcy emerged from the mlssion's dlscussions ln Upper Volta. (a) AW's planners should dectde whether to contlnue to focus AW's dryland settlement oPerations ln Ehe reglons of the Red and l.ltrite Volta charactertzed by heavy solls, or to extend ltse1f geographically. The AW Ls acctnulsting great experlence in the cultlvatlon of these solls, whlch nay require mechanlzatlon of some oPeratlons. Utlllzatlon of these solls will continue to requlre experlmentation of Ehe kind being done ln AVV's perlmeters at Present. special- izatlon on the heavy soils would thus seem to Present some advantages. (b) In its other interventlons ln dryland settlement AW nay w-ish to intensify lts efforts to lntroduce' on a pllot basis, some of the newer ldeas on dryland farrnlng relatlng to inproved water tranagement and lorrlnput, soil-enrlchlng approiches such as have been developed elser*rere and are Ueifnnfng at IRAT statlons. WiEh lts access to a dense network of extension agents, and its well-developed research capaclty, the Aw ls well-sulted to try the new methods ln a controlled envlrorment. AW might also further explore posslbllltles for settleEent pro3ecis based on irrlgation. Ttre maln requlrements for s,rc..ssf.rl irrigated settlenent are a htghly structured cultl- vatlon system, and depth in extenslon servlces - both of whlch AW couli provide. Uost of Upper Volta's lrrlgatlon potentlal is ln sparsely settled regions, so aettlement ls essentlal and there are no alternatlve extenslon services in the country whlch could do this Job. The economlcs of lrrlSated settlenent schemes may also be more att.ractive than dryland settlement. (c) -25- 61. With such a wide range of posslble actlvity AVV should welcome the egergence of supplementary and/or alternative aPProaches to dryland settle- trent, including posstble activlties of the ORI)g. Larger efforts would seem to be necessary to assist the spontaneous mLgrants. Experlmental schemes relying on dlfferent degrees of "guldance" should be tried. It ls essential to retaln a flextble and varled approach, so that settlemenE strat,egies and programs can be evolved whlch w111 be most, approprLate for the Upper Volta in the long-run and which may also provide lessons helpful elsewhere in the OCP area. 62. Resettleuent involves a new routlne for households and in particular a new famlly dlvision of labor. Women are frequently given heavy new tasks in cash crop cultivatlon, are deprlved of thelr traditional right to cultivate their own piece of land, forced often to walk long dLstances for water and firewood. 63. Some of these problems have arlsen wl.th severlty in OCP area settle- ment schemes. I/ Problens with aquifers and occaslonal adrdnistrative over- sights have sonetimes led to locatlon of wells as far as 2-5 km from compounds. Nor have arrangeuents, in the past, always allored for women's flelds, which has deprtved them of traditlonal sources of Lncome. Women are resPonslble for parr of the family food (splces, condLments) and also have responsibility for feeding of the households' chlldren. Unless provided wlth alternatLve sources of income earning, they cannot easily meet these obligatlons. The problem is rrorse ln the case of vlllages whose markets have not yet been created, so that even the traditlonal petty trade offers little opportunity. 64. Much more thought must be given to these issues' not only in settlement schernes but ln general. OutsLde interventLons at the minimum can aim aE reducing the demands on women's tlme, notably through beEEer plannlng of well locatlons and provision of snall nllls t,o reduce time required for food processing. Slnce labor is a naJor consEraint in settle- ment schemes, such pollcies w111 have important economic payoffs, and also assure greater equity ln the process of developmenE. 55. Broader econom{ c partlclpation by rromen ls essentlally not only to reduce labor constraints, but has other impllcatlons. Unless women can earn higher lncomes in both money and kind, it wlll be dlfficult to irnprove nutri- tional levels, and poor nutritlon is one of the most Lmportant health problems of the region. The health of children is partlcularly affected. It is easy to see why the improvement of rural llving standards depends to a considerable extent on assuring that eromen can make a positive contribution to the develop- trent. process. I/ cf. J.N. Gulssou, Etude sur les besoins des femr"es dans les vlllages de I'AVV eE Pro osltlon d un Pro amme d Interventlon. SAED Ouagadougou, April L977. t -26- VI. ECONOMIC STRATEGIES FOR TTIE OCP REGION 66. Slnilarlties and dlfferences betrreen the OCP states were noted in Ctrapter II. The OCP zone in each of the four coastal states preeents Eany sfunllar characteristics. It ls norLh, and distant frou the sea. It ls rrcoded savannah, largely devoted to subslstence agriculture and llvestock. It ls a substantlal part of the country tn physical terme, but thlnly popu- lated. It Ls poor. ltre center of economl.c gravlty ln each of these coastal countries lies ln the forest and coastal reglons wtrere nost people live and where most lncome ls generated. In the lnterLor countrles of Niger, Mall and Upper Volta, the OCP areas dlffer, not only fron the coastal countries but among themselves. In the Upper Volta, the t'OCP zone" ls virtr:aIly the wtrole country. In Nlger it encornpasses a very small but potenttally impor tant part of the country. In llall, the OCP zone covera the most fertlle regions, almost one-thlrd of what ls comnonly called t'Dlall utile." 67. Not only do the OCP zones of the program area differ ln slze, in economic characteristics, in econonlc signlficance, but the governments of the progrem area also have dlfferent pollcles and approaches to the develop ment of their OCP zones. This diverslty means there ls no single planning strategy or set of development pollcies whlch is urlversally appllcable to all seven states. It also ueans that the nisslon could not -- given its tLme const,raints and the restricted slze of thts report -- consider in detail or depth the ertrole range of developent pollcles and developent strategy issues which exist in the area. tJhat we rr111 do lnstead Ls comment on aev- eral aspects of the econornlc development of the reglon wtrich lmpressed the mlsslon by thetr lmportance or urgency. 58. It ls flrst of all apparent that there exLsts ln all the govern- ments of the area a strong political commitment to the acceleraEed develo5 ment of the OCP areas. Each of the coasEal states has a "northern strategyrl which favors northern reglonal developnent. Ttre ain ls to brlng about a Eore balanced sharing of the benefits of economlc growth, and a future developmentl drich will be more evenly spread between the reglons of each of the countriesi. For example, in the Ivory Coast., this has been an expllclt and iuPortant Ipolicy since 1974; the northern regions have benefttted from a special prograp of infrastructrlre developuent (schools, hospLtals, roads, etc.) Lnvolving some 20 bil1|on FCFA ln expendlture and from lntroduction of developm.ent Programs ained at lncreasing production of cotton, sugar cane and food crops. Slnilar programs have been introduced In recent years in Ghana, Togo and Benin. In fact, all the governments of the coastal states see the OCP as part of a general sErategy ained at lnproving the soclo-economlc staEus of their least- developed northern reglons. Somewhat different clrctmstances exlst ln the interior states, for reasons mentloned earller. But there, too, governments are anxious to encourage the social and economlc advancement of the regions where onchocerclasis ls coming under control. -27 - 69. It i6 equally evldent that there ls signlflcant economic actlvlty ln the OCP areas of each of the countries. The mlsslon did not attempt to catalogue the development proJects and programs Ln the area; an exhaustive lnventory had already been prepared by the OCP'e Economic Development Unlt for the Kuwalt neetlng of the JCC ln December L977. Ttrls lnventory of proj- ects has recently been updated and wtll be preeented to the Lome meetlng of the JCC in Decenber 1978. These reports descrlbe ln detall the projects exlstlng ln the OCP areas of each of the Btates, and also discuss the overall developnent pollcles of the OCP states. It le therefore unnecessary to repro- duce this lnformation ln thls report. 70. There are trrc naJor econonlc aectors whlch have recelved a great deal of attentlon by government plannere and by others concerned rtrtth the economlc development of the OCP states: llvestock production and lrrigated agrlculture. Each of these sectors has nuch potential for expa.nslon. Each has a key role not only ln general economic developent, but in bringing about economLc dlverslficatlon. Each ls also relevant ln the franerrcrk of the anti-droqht strategles being lnplernented under the auspices of the ComiteInter-Etat de Lutte Contre la Secheresse au Sahel (CILSS). Because their lmportance and thelr potential has been descrlbed extenslvely elsewtrere, and because of space ltmltatlons ln thls report, they wtll be treated onlybriefly here. 71. The potential for expanslon of llvestock production in the OCP coun-trles ls well-establlshed. Nlger and !,Iall are -- after Nigeria -- the largestproducers of cattle ln l{est Afrlca. The coastal cormtrles are i.mporters of red meat -- traditlonally fron Uall, Upper Volta and Niger, but uore recentlyfron south Amerlcan sources as well. unttt recently, for exanple, Ghana imported approxlmately half her meat consrnptlon, and the Ivory Coast ln 1976 lnported some 17,000 tons frotr norrAfrlcan countries. Ttrus not onlyls there a strong demand for meat, ln the coaetal cormtries ln particula;, but the locus of productlon ls tn the northern reglons of the coastal coun-trles and ln the tradltlonal exportlng countries (Uatf, Nlger, Upper Vo1ta). l[oreover, the movprnent. of livestock production south, to the better-watered Sudanese zones, ls part of the antl-drought strategy reconrtrended by the CILSS and others. The central element of this strategy, ln its lLvestock aspect,is the 'rstraEiflcation'r of productlon -- the increased offtake of young stock fron Sahellan herds, fattenlng theru on natural grazLag and on indus- trial by-products ln the Sudanese reglons, wlth flnishlng taking place near coastal markets. Stnllarly, the rrlder lntroductlon of rnlxed farming requires vast exPanslon ln the supply of sultable yor.rng animals-all of which glves the ocP area a strategic rore ln l{est Afrlca's livestock develoFnent. 72. Irrigated agrlcultural potentlals, sLmllarly, are considerable, and have been given close attentlon by local planners and ln the anti-droughtfood securlty context, by CILSS and others. Aecordlng to the FAO, Sahel Siudy(1975), Mall had 4 mllllon ha of irrigable solls of whlch 47 are c"rre"tf[-irrigated; Niger 1.8 nllllon ha lrrlgable, wLth 24,ooo ha (Iz) irrigared; F{ r1 @F o\ .A A& crH ot d oo €I cl d .A hq, sodN o a ,A t'Pc , o o q) J:{, d .e o >) OJ k a .n 4 c q q) til a6 c o <) ti o .e +) CJ "-1aA oA +,f 0, o oti ocHoo ct r{ o9u}€ 'id.uq)a<o+)6 .A .r4 qt dCAE'qtO f\ '.r .AA'J6dtrl,g lrl q)H+)() ,rza .o .ta - at- o\ o o\F ot C)() o oo ri () c)(o (\' ooF ooo o\o oo -:, o\F ooo (n ooo ooA oo(^ (\' A oo '{(\I\o oooc)oo<)ooooo o.F;.,].oJort-F(,)AU\.,d sJ n CV q) OJ ( e-{ C) qJ 4 -:t lno\, @ \O rn -l n CJ u\ .-l ( r1 Ao^\(\t_!(nFl(r. oooooo -l -l ooooc)ooo(^ t-- rn O F-Fr{A :t r1 oo()o(YI .-? (v oo(o rn oo(n 3 oo@ (\l ooo OJ or oo -{ 3 or oooono rr\F ._{ oo@ (rn ol oo(f) oot\ ooooooI.T\F3 (v1 (n \o .i ooooo-o oco(n oooooo o(Y)cn rlFF{ .24 ooc)oOa A nl -l ooF (\,q) ooc)o <)oooF- v) o\ oJ]r\@o -a oJ (oA oOC)o(.)oO)t- .l r1 (y) .t oooo ooa N@ o()oc)ooo60000 ;;to\F?1q) cu(vA (\.l oooo F3AJ 6.)ooooagA95i36666ocqoXi{;A:rArr\co\os.; 6o,-tcrrr'r@to\F .;iA;,orAF-(nAA oon CU) ooootnA Ll\ \o 38388O t- \O ?1 -A msj(fi -:! A CV ooOO Cr)o\ -{ Lnr1 qJ^ +,dc.i3!1 +)Od(u 'r q eO C].f (dd';d'aato d )b r. ;b i{ k '; d tr t< r{"{ c !i o q, h O Tt l'- 'A -Ou oJ o' ql iid o ). r: o ;o n i: 4 tr m ri {rl]lc > 9, or 'd d "a 3 o ) 'a {J oHG i, 5' i, a F: 't (, J O F o Hv oo@ oo\o .J oo(\) C) C) -t o D c cit. r3 t. (l -{ , J o{ (r L( L s }: ct o e d{ c.) '{ l-uc .{ (, l1 > tr, a) r: c c I {' :l r{ -o .)> > 1't{ (1 f,(,>o r-{ () d d (- O.A t. r: .) O c..i ,j +)o.J <) '.a cl ot {J t r) E o t{ , c o oH EJ4 Ritl ,z tio >{ Er o L) r)A 2- E!H < \a, '7. i-OC er -a.< rriE,H()o fr: (,)E' l.li: u) l')OL: l. -l o tlF t. -l ;l d'.1 I I I i i j I I I I ! 1 I -29- Upper Volta, some 45O,0OO ha lrrigable, with 18,O0O (32) actually lrrigated. 1/ Tire potentlals for lrrlgatl-on of the large flood plains ln the northern reglons of the coastal countrles are less well known but there are surely Eany thous- ands of hectares of bas fonds wlth great promlee for speclalized, higtrvalue outPuts(vegetab1es,@c.).Andfurtherreaearchandexperl'mentation will better define the developent posslbllltles of the large rLver valleys in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo and BenLn. 73. One of the most strlklng aspects of economlc developent ln West Afrlca ls the large volr-me of labor mlgration ln the regl.on. Table 3 indl- cates the dlrectLon and nagnltudes of these mlgratLone. 74. It is clear from the table that the Upper Volta ls the maJor ex- porter of labor, the Ivory Coast the rualn Lmporter. In economlc terms, there ls llttle quesElon about the advantages accrulng to the laboriraport- ing countrles. ltre lupact of nlgratlon on the labor exPorting cor:ntries, especially the Upper Volta ls, however, the subJect of much debate. Some observers argue that emlgratLon has retarded the developent of the Upper VoIta. Others say that the relevant questlon ls whether vlable alternatlves have exl.sted. Itre degree of equity ln the sharlng of the benefits of inter- dependence ls also a subJect of some controveray. But few would deny that all partles are economlcally better off with lnterdependence than they would be were lt to end. At the same tlme, the labor mlgratlon asPect of thls reglonal lnterdependence cannot go much further. Almoet a fifth of the total Voltaic populatlon nolr works and/or llves outslde the country' In the Ivory Coast, perhaps a quarter of the labor force cones from outslde the country. In both the sendlng and recelvlng countries, soclo-polltlcal llnlEs to tnigratlon are probably near. 75. Ttrls ls what makes onchocerciasl.s control and the opening up of new lands a matter of such crltlcal importance, not only to the Upper Volta but to the Ivory Coast and to West Afrlca a6 a wtrole. Populatlon pressurea on land ln Upper Volta have until now been resolved largely by nlgration souttF ward. But the absorptlve capaclty of thls outlet ls shrinking and contLnua- tion of past trends 1s neither posslble nor deelrable. Ttre avallability of new lands reduces denographLc pressures on the Mossi plateau, reducl.ng thereby pressures for external mlgratlon as well. 76. It ls essential to note, however, that for the Upper Volta, settle- ment and/or mlgratlon into "new landst' provides only a partlal relief to the problems of populatlon pressure, shortened fallows, decllnLng ylelds and dLsastrous erosl.on. Asstmlng the Voltalc populatton wlll increase at lts present rate (2-2.5 percent) and no change ln cropplng patterns or farning practlces, tlio m111ion-odd hectares potentially avallable because of vector control can absorb only about 8001000 people, or lees Ehan elght years of the rl FAo, Sahel Study , pages 7, 91. 30 lncreuental population growth in Upper Volta. l/ The sltuatlon ls not so omlnous In the other OCP countrl-es, but sinllar clrc'rmstances awalt them all in the future, if underlylng condltlons are not tranaformed. 77. To the extent that the control progran has helped open new areas for occupationr lt gives a temporary rellef fron these urgent pressures, which would otherwlse reveal themselves ln the form of decltnlng graln yields, acceleratlng erosion, and hlgher mlgratlon rateB. It glves the Upper Vo1ta, in particular, and t.hose outslde agencles associated wlth lt in development Eatters, a crl,tically Lnportant breathlng spelI, tlme to address fundamental probleus of agrlcultural change and general economlc developent. 78. Ihere ls littIe questlon that one of these fundamental problems is the relatlvely low level of productivlty ln traditlonal agrlculture. Some of the technlcal means to raise ylelds per caplta and per hectare are already at hand, for food crops as well as for export crops. Food crop research done by IRAT and by the Crop Research Institute ln Ghana have produced locally- adapted input-packages. If famers could be shorm the advantages of using pure seed, appropriate plant spaclng and the lmportance of proper tirning of plantlng and weeding, output would grow rapldly. ftrls u't11 require uajor efforts to strengthen existing agrlcultural extension sertrlces, lrith asso- ciated efforts in rural develop,oent -- lntenslfled experinental field trials, construction of secondary roads and soclal lnfrastructure, appllcation of approprlate price and marketing pollcles nrtrlch w111 provlde incentives to expanslon of producElon and sales. 79. ltre increase in agrlcultural productlvlty by broader adoption of existing seed-based technologies and by sound rural development policles, can make an important contributlon to the econonlc development of the region. But it is not enough. Experience elsewhere in West Africa and in ecologically similar parts of the world suggests that, nlxed famlng, sound rotatj.ons, and use of ferti-llzers may not be enough to allow permanent cultlvatlon ln the typical soils of low rainfall regions -- unless crop resldues are recycled and cropplng practices are changed ln other ways. Otherwlse lt leads to a gradual decllne ln soll fertllity due to loss of organlc metter and acidlfl- cation. Even where decllning fertllity can be long delayed (as some IRAT experi-ence suggests is possible) fertlllzer costs become very heavy. 80. What is demanded ln these reglons ls not slnply an lmproveuent i.n agricultural practices but a baslc transformatlon of farmlng systems, the introduction of new technologles wtrlch r^r'111 allow lntensive cultLvatlon on a permanent basis. T/ This ls based on Ehe assumption of 2.5 ha. per capita iand requirenents' whlch assumes 8-10 year fallows, consurf,ptlon of 200 kg. of grain annually, production of 500 kg./ha. - 31 - 81. Rapid and excltlng progrese ln the developent of such technologles has been nade ln recent years. Varlous new approaches have been developedln different parts of the world, particularly ln Indla, under the auspices of the rnternational crop Research rnstitute for the semi Arid Troplcs (rcRrsAT). Sone of these approaches have been wtdely tested, with very promlsing results --ln Kenya and Botswana, for example. 82- The new technlques lnvolve a varlety of cropping practlces, nany of them already farnlliar: contourlng, rldging, mulchlng, growing of l-eguminous cover croPs, minlmum tlllage, extensive use of trees and bushes. These crop-ping systems have three elements ln common. (a) Thelr purpose is to improve soil quality and fertility as part of the productlon effort; they recognize that many troplcal solls w111 not endure permanent cultivation unless theirphyslcal and chenlcal properties are enrlched over tine. (b) ?hey are rel-a- tively low-input using; they do not. stress fertllizer application, or full water control (irrlgation). (c) fney stress be:ter rainfall Eanagenent. In some variants of thls new systen, rldges or beds are laid out on carefuliygraded contours, in such a way that raln water percolates slowJ-y in the soj.1profile. Graded run-off sysEems and splllways sJ,ow water run-off, and drain- age ways leading to waEer shortage tanks are frequently involved. Qptimizing water use in this fashion leads to dramatic decllnes in waier run-off and soil erosion, and to increases in underground water tables. It permlts introduc+-ion of new cropplng Patterns and dramatic increases in ylelds. In India, ICRISAT reports ylelds of. 5-7 Eons per ha. wlth high yield security. And rhe ICRISAT approach has been lnplemented at relatively 1ow cost and wlthout complex or capital-intensive methods. Appendlx IV contalns further discussion. 83. The pronise of these nerd Eethods ls great; but so are the obstaclesin the way of their adoption. Although research has provided rnethods forintensiflcatlon which have produced superlor results, their generai appJ-i- cation under practical condltions poses challenges such as high cilmatic risk, seasonal labor shortages (and hence dtfficultles in adherence to recommended cropping calendars), uncertalnties about the economics of input use, etc. Wtrat is needed at thls stage ls wldespread and systenatlc experimentation wiEh Ehe eleuents of better rrater managetrent, lncreased tree cover, etc. pilotprojects along these llnes and programs of rglated research should be givenhighest prlority by local agrlcultural authorltles and by donor agencies. 84- trllth respect to overall economlc strategy in the OCp zones of the coastal countrles, lt is lmportant to consLder carefully the notion of "oncho-cerciasls zonett or "onchocerclasls-relatedtt proJects. Ihere should be nopresumptlon that such projects have a per se priorlty claln on natlonaldevelopment resources. Projects for ttre o-rrchocerclasls-controlled zones should be evaluated on a case by case basls, on their merits. gnchocerciasis control will certainly open up new opportunit,les, and in the coastal countriesit will contlnue to be deslrable to favor northern area developent for both soclal and economic reasons. But the general poIlcy shouLd be to use avail- able resources where and how they best meet, natl.onal objectives. -32- 85. At the same time, OCP-related experlences and studles have made clearer the nature of the obstacles to developnent ln the OCP areas. By doing so, the OCP has underscored the need for lncreased attentlon fron the donor community lf developent constraints tn these areas are to be more effectively reduced and the econonlc progress of the reglon accelerated. It has made clear also the urgency of the need for traneformatlon of dry- land farming nethods in the reglon as a whole. A maJor l-nternatlonal assistance effort ained at brlnging about thls transformation is strongly lndicated. 86. Thls polnt is critical and nerits special stress. Ttre poverty of the OCP area and the difficultles that lle ln the way of economlc development make it clear that such a strong effort ls essentlal to an accelerated pace of development ln thls area. The fact that settlement of the new lands which the OCp helps open up will provide only a partlal and tenporary solution Lncreases the urgency and importance of expandlng tnternatlonal aeslatance. lJtrile the mlssLon emphasLzes that there is no unlvereally appllcable developent 6Erategy for the reglon as a whole, and that each developnent acheme needs to be evaluated on lts merits and ln lts natlonal context, it also pol.nts to one concluslon that is generally appltcable: more developnent reaources are needed ln thls disadvantaged reglon. A greater effort ls urgently required by all partle6 to develop and inplement programs which reach the broad mass of the populatlon ln the OCP area. Ttris not only ln turn entalls a whole range of action by donors and particlpatlng counErles not only in the agrlcultural and livestock develop,neni but ln transport, mlneral exploration, industrial development, a6 well as ln actlvlttes that Lncrease the absorptive capaclty of these states, such as educatlon, health and adnlnlatration. -33- VII. PLA}INING TIIE DEVELOPUENT OF I'IIE OCP AREA 87. Aseoclated with the OCP le what hae cone to be called "the FAO/IBRD nethodologyr" ttthe standard Eethodologytt or, Eore elnply, trthe methodologytt -- an approach to planning the developEent of the OCP zonee ln each country. Accordlng to the nethodology, plannlng should proceed ln three stages: (a) the gatherlng of baslc lnformatlon (creatlon of a 'rdata bank'r) by naklng an inventory of exlstlng studlee and undertaking nen onea, wlth partlcular enphasls on baslc data generation by renote eenalng; (b) the utlllzation of thls lnforuatlon for preparat,lon of a t,en year ttonchocerclasls zonett devel- oFent plan; and (c) the lmplenentatlon of epeclflc develop,Eent proJects. To lmplement the methodology, a Developnent Plannlng Group, headed by a Permanent Advlsor, was to be attached to each OCP country's planning agency. Each country's rrdata bank" waa to take l0 months to conplete, and ten year plan 4 months. l/ 88. A11 of the OCP governnents recognlze the need to plan the develop- menE of the new lands becomlng avallable as a reault of onchocerclasis con- trol. Flve of the seven governnents agreed to the general approach outllned in the trethodology. Tno (Ivory Coaet and Nlger) preferred to channel thel.r effort through their existlng reglonal planntng atructure8. 89. hnplenentatlon of the Eethodology wao eatLnated to requlre approxl- rnately $7 n1111on. The IINDP, IBRD (through IDA) and USAID offered supportfor varlous conponents, as lndlcated ln Table 4. The anonnt of frrndlng avall- able as of late 1977 Ie lndlcated ln Table 5. / reo/rnnn, Econoulc Devel nt of Areas Freed from Onchocerciasis in 1, Togo and Upper Volta Rone, I 5 I Dahomey. Ghana 34 TABLE 4 SOURCES OF FINANCING AND CURRENT STATUS, OCP PLANNING I'GTIIODOLOGY Resource Lnventory Socio- Economic Studles Establishment Plannlng Unit Estab- lishment Long-Term Plan Studies on Specl fic Projects ID SIill Aval1ab1e ID Sti1l Avallable ID First Pro ject s Identified ID Sti1l Available ID First Pro ject s Identified iIN UN UN UN I]N ID NAT UN UN UN UN UN UN UN UN ID NST T'N UN/USBenin Ghana Mali Togo Upper Volta Ivory Coast Niger UN/ID UNUN NAT US US UN UN UN UN Financing Agents US: USA-AID UN: UNDP ID: IDA NAT: NATIONAL FLINDS -35- TABLE 5 AMOUNT AND SOURCES OF FINANCING FOR OCP ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING, tg77 COUNTRY IDA UNDP USAID GOVERNMENT TOTAL s$ 0 600.0 500.0 300.0 240.d 2oo.d Upper volta I ,495.0 500.0 s6o.cg/ 73"0 2,628.0 ORIGINAL ESTIUATE OF NEEDS Benin Ghana tIa1i Togo Unal1o- cated 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 56 .0 54.0 94.0 26.0 796.0 I,354.0 1 ,084.0 826.0 1,297 .6 I,42l.l 1,858.6 5s6.7 I,56I.0 1 r470.0 6 ,595.0- a/ Estimatlon of a total of approximately USgl.O uillion for the remore senslng related studies. bl As estimated in the Joint FAO/IBRD Report, 1975, p. LI. 90. Implementation has moved fonrarC at an uneven pace. In Togo stud-les of the Oti Valley and other northern regions were quickly launched. Else- where the'rdata bank" has evolved more slowly. A basl" r"ppi.rg study (r,ia satelllte imagery) of Upper Volta, Ghana and Benin was launched late in 1917. other information - gathering projects are sti1l in the dlscussion stage.ttPermanenttr or ttSeniort' advisors have been appointed in three countries:Benin, Ghana and MaIi -- in the latter two only since earLy or mid-197g.No ten-year plan has been prepared. 91. During the field visits of this review mission it became apparenrthat the nature and purpose of the nethodology has given rj.se to differentlnterpretations ln the OCP governments. At the outset, the roethodology was -36- not conceived of as a substitute for local plannlng approaches. IE was rather vlewed by lts lnitiators as a supplernent to local efforts. Nor uas the ldea of an t'Obp plannlng approach" meant to convey the ftnpresslon that natlonal- level plannlng would ln any sense be replaced by an OCPrylde planning approach' The nethodology, with lts recommended sequence (gather tnformatlon, deflne projects ana liforitles ln a plan, then prePare proJects) waa not l-ntended to ie a rigfd formula. ProjecE work rrculd lnevltably get under rray before the data bank was full, and the plan preparatlon and proJect-uaking processes could or should go on in tandem ln many Lnstances. gZ. Experlence has revealed the need not only for clarification along the llnes mentioned above, but also the need to adapt the orlglnal approach' As has been stressed in prevlous chapters, the partlclPatlng countries dlffer in key respects, and thls makes trnsultable a unLform approach to thelr devel- opr".rl - whether on the plannlng slde or otherwlse. Wtth resPect of plannlng' tirree sets of dlfferences call for a nore dlfferentiated plannlng approach. (a) The inportance of the control progren to natlonal economies and national-soclal pollcles varles sharply from country to country. In the four coastal countrles the ocP areas are the poorer northern regl.ons, each of thern the obJect of "northern strategies" al-med at Eore balanced reglonal development. In these cases speclal plannlng efforts and expendlture on the ocP area can be Justlfled on the groundsthatitrunsParallelrlthandstrengthenstheinorthern strategiesr" wlth deslrable equity effects. But the same cannot be said for the three lnterlor countrle8. Mali ln particular Presents a stronS contrast: the rela- tively well-endowed OcP area there already beneflts froo manY develoPment actions. (b) Each ocP country has dlfferent plannl.ng strucEures and institutio.,", ",,d dlfferent strenSths, weaknesses andneeds ln the planning 8E€8o Thus ln Upper Vo1ta, regional planntng experience ls sllght and reglonal plannlng machinery embryonic ' A slngle developent aurhorlty (rne aw) has responelbtllty for the devel- oPmentoftherlvervalleys.InBenln,TogoandNlger' wheresmallproportionsofthepopulatlonlivelnthe OCP zone, reglonal planning structures exlst' but no riverbasinauthoritles.InBenlntherearenLEerous stateagencieswithresponslbllltyforreglonalplan- ning, tn fogo few. In Togo there are many studles of the northern reglons, compleEed or under way' In Benin therearefew.InNlgerandlvoryCoastt,herel.scon. stderable physical plannlng experlence ln the plannlng organlzat,lon; this 1s less true ln the other sEates' In Ivory Coait, plannlng data by reglon are relatively -37 plentlful. Regionallzatlon of plannlng has advanced to the stage where Progrmmes give break-dorins of lnvestment expendlture by region. In Ghana regLonal plannlng lnstitutlons have been ln place for many yearst and planning offlces exist at regional and sub-reglonal levels. An Upper Reglon Integrated Rural Developent project provldes central focus for the agrlcultural efforts in that part of the OCP area. In l'Iall the planning machinery has more of a ftrnctlonal than a regional cast. Major planning (and executlon) of devel- opment actlvlties occurs wlthin the specialized t'rpt.- tions" whlch exist throughout the country. (c) Resettlenent, the planned occupatlon of t'enpty landsrt' ls not of the same lnportance everywhere ln the OCP. But underlying Ehe methodology was one prlncipal obJec- tlve: to assure that resettlement of lands where oncho- cerclasis 1s conlng under control receLved the special attention, the special planning, lt requlres. Ttre back- ground docr:ments t,o the OCP show this clearly; the need for soundly-concelved settlement Programs and projects was the main ratlonale of the planning Eethodology proposals. But, as rras shown earller, condltl.ons wlth respect to populatlon/land pressures and ease of access to "empty lands" dlffer a great deal fron country to country wtthln the OCP area. As a result, the need for and emphasis on resettlenent programs varles. 93. It should be evident that, except ln a very general !ray, no sLngle planning approach ls suitable for these heterogenous cLrcumsEances. It was lnevitable that a neEhodology glving lmpIlclt prlorlty to the needs of reset- tlement programs, and which lald out a broad but unlform approach with respect to studles, long term regional developnent plans, etc., should "fittt some of the OCP counEries less well than others. Ttris reinforces the need to make clear that the methodology should be broadly and flexlbly interpreted, as a set of general guldellnes. 94. The followlng adaptations or lnterpretatlons seem trost in order. (a) The OCP countries which are followlng the FAO/IBRD methodology as a whole, or any of lts components, should be glven contlnued encouragement ln thelr efforts, whlch should be regarded as tesE or pllot experlences. Those OCP countries which have chosen Eo adopt only some components of the EethodoloSyr or none at all, should be equally encouraged in this lnterpretatlon of thelr needs and prloritles. Ttrat dLverse conditlons create dlfferent needs, in plan- nlng as in ot,her mat.ters, should be expllcitly acknowledged and allowed for. -38- (b) The concept of the Deveropnent plannlng Group (DpG) ehourdbe tested ln the three countries where flpermanent" (orttsenlor") advisors have been appointed (Benln, I'Ial I, Ghana).Further extension t.o other countrlee should await an evalua-tion of experience ln these countrles. (c) Any anbigulty about the autonony of the Development planning Group should be renoved; they should be fully integratedlnto exlsting planning bodies. (d) The notlon of a "long-term development plan" for the "oncho- cerciasis zone" (Phase 2 of the FA0/rBRD methodology), should be very broadly lnterpreted in the three states with DpG,s, and should only be elaborated there as part of overall national plannlng exerclses. These "onchocercLasls zonedevelopment plansrr need not be contemplated in upper volta(because the whole country is the OCp area). Noi uill they be ueanlngful lf OCP extenslon southward occurs ln Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo and Benln, since the |tonchocerciasls zonestt will then take up a large part of these countries as well. In general, to the extent that national authoritlesfeel lt useful to have such reglonally-based, localizedplanning efforts, they should be brtef, slmple stock-taking exercises, aimed at ldentlfylng rnaJor constraints and 6ort-lng out project ideas for further development. Technical asslstance should continue to be provided for such efforts, 1f requested, though not necessarlly through Develop,o.ent Plannlng Groups. (e) The best use of the OCP-related plannlng machinery will vary from country to country. In Upper Volta, for exauple, questions of settlement and nigration are of hlgh prlority. Potential OCP-related planning lnputs in Upper Volta nlght rherefore usefully be deployed to focus on soclo-economic analysis of migration and resettlenent policies and programs. In Mali, data gaps (on population distrlbution, agronomic and soll characteristlcs, hydrology, etc.) are partlcularly acute. The OCP-related planning effort nlght therefore stress data generation and research. In general, the OCP-related planning nachlnery could be used to strengthen capacity ln regional planning, in proJect preparatlon and ln pollcy-focused analysls of nigratlon and resettlenent questions, wtrere these are of actual or potential lmportance. -39- (f) The results of the methodology and of extstlng approaches to plannlng for the developent of the OCP areas should be evaluated after a reaaoneble anor.rnt of experLence has been accr.mulated; the end ot 1979 seems an approprlate tlme. Out of this evaluatlon should cone reconmendatLons on plannlng needs, lncluding needs ln related studies and research, durlng the next phase of the OCp. The EcononLc Development Unit 95. Related to the planning methodology ls the questlon of the role of the Economic Development Unlt. The EDU has performed useful nonitoring and reporting tasks ln lts attempts to track development projects in the OCP area. Its repertory of proJects, as presented to the Kuwait neeting of the JCC in December L977, represents a tremendous achlevement. More ver, the rePorts written by EDU etaff members upon return from their missionsto member countrles are hlghly ueeful docrnents, infornatlve for all those concerned wlth the OCP. Ttrey proved partlcularly helpful to this Economic Revlew Misslon. 96. Desplte the usefulness of lts past activities, the EDU director and staff are searchlng new roles. One reason ls the lower productivity inherent in keeplng the lnventory of projects up to date as cotrpared toputting lt together. Extension of the proJect zone, moreover, would create 6ome colDpllcatlons: cataloging of proJects ln the extenslon zone would mean canvasslng much of the area of the four coastal countries. Ttris kind of inventory of project actlvltles is a naJor task, difftcult even for heav-ily-staffed rninlstries of cooperatlon ln most developtng countries. Thisls not a functtron whlch EDU could readlly perforu ln the extended progran area. 97. Ihere are related activlties, new emphases, which are altogetherin 1lne with EDU's mandate, and whlch have already been under consideration at EDU offices ln Ouagadougou. The EDU could expand its research and po1-lcy analysis activlties, eLther undertaklng research dlrectly, or -- more sultably -- serving as a research lnltiator or organizer. Thus EDU could seek external funding for speclflc research, all or most of which it would arrange to have done by contract. It could also expand its advisory activi-tles, asslstlng oCP management and OCP-related offtclals at the individual country 1evel on develoFent-related research, policy or projects. 98- The EDU cannoE perforn these kinds of activltles effectively unless Ehe scope of its concerns ls narroroed. Posslble areas of concentration are as varled as the economlc prlorlties of the OCP rnember states. One appro-priate area is resettlement and rnigration. The EDU could concent.rate onthis partlcular aspect of the OCP region's development, since this is where major dlrecE economic lmpact of the vecEor control program wlll be fe1t. Itis also where the need for poticy- and project-related research is great, especially ln Upper Volta. By accrmuiatlng experience, knowledge, d.ocr:menta-tion on settlement and migration lssues and by stinulating and organizing I I I -40- research, EDU can make an lmportant contrlbutlon to the deflnltlon of poll- cies and the developnent of programs on theee crltlcal matters. Soclo- economLc research on health-related questlons rrculd be slnllarly appropriate, and in llne rrtth the recommendatlon uade at the recent Cotonou meeting of naEional representatlves of the OCP, that the EDU set uP Btudles to Eeasure the econonlc lnpact of the OCP. The Econonic Developmen t Advisory Panel 99. The Economlc Developnent Advlsory Panel (EDAP) has attempted since lts formatlon ln 1975 to evolve a well-deftned sphere of activity. Wtry this has proved dlfflcult should be evldent when one compares EDAP's scope of possible actlvity to that of STAC. the latter brlngs together the agency responsible for executlng vector control and ecLentlBts knowledgeable ln fields related to control of the vector Slnullun -- epecl-allsts in ento- nology, blology, chemistry, medlcLne, etc. The central concern l-s unam- bigu-us: how to control onchocerclasls more effectively. Ttre advisory panel ,"ie" avallable to the OCP nanagement the best epeclallsts ln the world on thls questlon. "Economic Developmentr" however, lnvolves a nuch wider range of questlons, from budget pollcles, to reglonal economlc strategles, to livestock or rice projects. And thls broad array of questlons arl-ses in dlf- ferenE cl.rcr-mstances ln each of the countrleg. Moreover, there are a large nr:mber of agencles responslble for executing economlc developent, none of which are represented at EDAP meetl.ngs. It is no nonder that EDAP has had difficulty in finding a sultable focus. l0O. Ihe nlsslon was unable to conslder et length the questlon of the future role of EDAP. I,le were able to consult wlEh only a few of its mem- bers. We hesltate therefore to present flrm recommendatlons. It ls none- theless clear that, for the reasons Eentioned, EDAP ln lts preeent form suffers frou severe obsgacles, whLch reduce lts productlvlty and lts Poten- tial. Ihe reasons, iE should be stressed, are structural; they have llttle to do wlth Ehe compositlon of the Panel, aval.lablllty of resources' eEc. I Its focus would have to be much more clearly deflned, and contacts wlth i its speclflc audlence lntensified. lot. A flextble alternatlve nlght be envisaged in the franework of a reor- ganized advlsory structure. There is much to be sald for forming one advisory panel for the OCp, wiEh ad hoc sub-panels on such sclentlflc, ecological and Lconomlc developnent issues as rnay arlse from time to tlme. Ttre EDAP func- tions would then be exerclsed wlthln these ad hoc eub-panels. this would allow the econonlc advisory role to be played more effectlvely than ls pos- sible under the present arrang€oents, slnce lt would provlde both the nec- essary focus and the speclflc audlence now lacklng' -4r- VIII. ECONOI.{IC CRITERIA FOR ASSESSING TTIE REQUESTED EXTENSIONS OF THE OCP L02. Extension of the vector control progran has been requested by a nr:mber of partlclpattng governments, and Ehe request ls under conslderatlon. Studles of the technlcal aspecEs of extenslon have been launched. The Eco- nomic Revlew Mlsslon was asked to coEment on economtc aspects of this exten- slon. 103. The rulsslon found lt dlfflcult to aaeees the econornlc aspects of the proposed extension, for varlous reasons. The new boundarles of the pro- gram remain undetermlned; posslble technlcal approaches and problems are still betng studied; the degree of onchocerciasls prevalence in the proposed extenslon area ls only partlally knolrn. Under the cLrcunatances only general obsenrattons are Ln order. 104. It should first of all be noted that the decielon to extend should depend on rnedical or entonologlcal needs -- the need ln particular to prevent, or reduce relnfestatlon of the present OCP 8E€8. it is, secondly, evident that the declsLon on extensi-on must be coordlnated between contlguous states and must cover adjacent zones ln dlfferent countrlea. If, for exarnple, it is found deslrable to extend almost to Cotonou ln Benln, then the controlled area ln Togo nust be extended roughly to the soe latltude. If this is not done, lateral relnvaslon would seem lnevltable. 105. The economlc beneflts of the propoged extenslon w111, of course, be of the same nature as the beneflts of the exlstlng program: the increase ln output derived fron reductlon Ln onchocerclaeis-lnduced deblllty, dis- ablltty and bllndness; the amount and quallty of land made more accessible as a result of control of the Slnulfu.rn vector. In addltlon, there will be benefits due to reductlon o?EliGslon, and hence reduced expenditure on vector control ln the present OCP area. 106. The labor-related benefits w111 depend nainly on the size of the populatlon ln the extension area and the prevalence and severity of oncho- cerciasls lnfectlon. In the three coastal countrles, the proposed extenslon will ln fact cover large populatlons. In Ghana, the requested extension area covers 1.4 mtlllon people (1970 Census estLnate), almost as Eany as in the existing OCP area in that country. In Togo, extenslon to the central and plateaux reglons would protect 8501000 people, as cotrpared to the 510rC00 in LI In the Ivory Coast, extensLon ls already approved. The present OCP area conEalns 900r000 people (1975 Populatlon Census estlmate), and about one-thlrd of the t.otal area of the country. Thc extenslon area adds another one-thtrd of t,he country, wLth a populatlon of 2.2 aLL- 11on. -42- the Savannah regions presently covered. And, ln Benin, extensLon would cover some, perhaps all, of the densely-populated southern provinces(uono, Atlantlque, Marltime), which lnclude more than 50 percent of thetotal population of the country, though only l0 percent of lts land area. I07. The fact that the proposed extenslon would onchocerclasis to relatively large numbers of people related economic benefits could be substantlal. The populatlon is presently exposed to onchocercLasis 1s que st ion. brlng protection against suggests that labor- extent to whlch thls then the critical 108. The mlssion made an estimate, by analysls of available naps, of the extent of "empty-lands" in the extenslon area, and the quality of the soilsin question. Ihe results are shown in Table 6. Ttrey confirn what local authorltles stress: that the rrenpty-landstt ln the extension area have much economic potential . Ttre extension rculd ln particular remove the onchocer- ciasis obstacle from7921000 ha of bottomland (category 2) and about 1.4 mil- llon ha. ferralitic (caEegory 4) solls. fhe najor unknown element in the economics of the ext.enslon is the extent to which onchocerclasis is a cri- tical factor explaining the present underutillzation of these lands. 109. In this regard, lt ls worth enphasizing that the economic justifi- catlon for the extension of the OCP area does not depend prinarily, or even significantly, on the nr-mber of development proJe-cts and programs existing ln the proposed extension area or planned for lt. Ttrese are relevant only under the following condltions: (a) The projects ln questlon are (or will becone) demonstrably and signlflcantly more productlve wiEh onchocerclasis control than wlthout, lt. (b) There are no alternatlve, cheaper ways of achlev- ing a tolerable level of disease control in the project area. (c) For new projects, it is not possible to locate in areas of low endemiclty or easy disease control. 110. The economic case for program extenalon should be based on the following crlteria: (a) The prevalence and severity of the dlseaee :rmong the working population of the area, and the slze of the affected population. (b) The exlstence of potentially productive resources - land in particular - the exploitatlon of whlch ls slgnlflcanEly obstructeC by the presence of SinuIlun. -43- (c) Evldence that the openlng of these "new lands'r will represent a slgnlflcant addltlon to productlve poten- tlal ln the area. Thls is dlrected at the questlon of wtrether there do not already exlst subst.antial qr:an- tltles of underutllized land, in localities where oncho- cerclasls 1g absent or of 1ow endemlcity. Ilt. The economlc case for extenslon would also be strengthened if iE could be demonstrated that extenslon will result in slgniflcant reductionsin dangers of reinvasLon ln the present OCP area, and that cost-effectlve alternatlves to OCP extenslon do not exist. 1I2. Thls suggests the need, even at an eariy Btage, for a thorough exploratlon of alternatlve methods of onchocerciasls control ln the proposed zones of extenslon, the critlcal lmportance of which has already been noted.High costs are necessarlly involved 1n continuous control rrlth the existing technology over so vast and envlronmentally dlverse a reglon. It should bepossible to develop more cost-effective approaches; efforts in this direction should be speeded rrp. ll3. The focus on economlc benefits of the control program should not obscure the hrnanitarlan aspect of the OCP. A central objective of thisprogram - lts extenslon llke the exlstlng actlvity - ls to reduce the miserybrought by slckness to an lmpoverished part of mankind. The degree to whlch t,he extenslon of the progran area contrlbutes to thls goal shouid be a najor criterlon for determtnlng lts justlflcation. 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A z H rd F] ! H =ol ail 2 €i 5 E{l E = tqo t'lo x Ei d9 3,F-O)(v m i\i qo -,?a -a (n \o ot F (5 OJg .-{fr o OJE r{E (, ,(\.lE { o CVE .-{E u N& .l& o OJE Agi (fl OJ \ d# d,dP rn r,'G RrCVr,\ :5 Bd (rl CO Rr I o\ OJ o cr) lrd .hP d-ioo !@t{ooo '.:ri6'-,b0&AI8,? E'r Is U' o ,{ ou -l 0., 'dp od(, CJ lttt tttt trlr I rE \o rn J A () ll ll trtt APPENDIX I Page I ParllclpeElqq ln Ecooomlc Revlew lllsalon Tlnetable of Fleld Vlslte and Terns of Reference Partlclpants ln the OCP Economlc Review Mlselon El1lot Berg, Mlsslon Leader -- Coneultant Jeanne Bisllllat, SocLologlst -- Coneultant, FAO Max Burer, Agronomist -- IBRD Ilelnz Graetz, Agronomlst -- Consultant, FAO Ralph l'1e1v111e, EDAP -- Consultant (Upper Volta) Vann Molyvan, Ecologlst-Settleoent Spectallst -- Consultant, IINDP Jean Park, Econonlst -- IBRD (Upper Volta, Nlger) Rarn Chrletophe Sawadogo, Soclologlst -- Consultant (t{HO) Iljalte Sederlof, Loan Officer -- IBRD Kaes Van der Meer, Solle Speclallst -- Coneultant Tlnetable of Fleld Vielts bv OCP Econml.c Review Mlsslon I First Field Visit January January February February Second Fleld Vislt March 23-26, 1978 March 25 - Aprtl 3, 1978Aprll 3 - 7, 1978Aprll7-14,L978 r9-2 I 22- 3-r2 12-l , 1978 February 3, 1978 , 1978 8,1978 Paris Upper Volta Ivory Coast Ghana Paris Togo Benin Mal1 Thtrd Field Vlslt May 23 - 26, 1978 Niger 2/ U Not all mlsslon members vlslted each country, nor dld each 6tay the seme amount, of tlme ln the countrlee vlelted. 2/ Only one member of the rnlsslcrn could vlstE Nlget; the government of Nlger was unable to recelve the mtsslon in Aprll. APPENDIX I Page 2 t. At its meeting in Rome on September I and 2, L977 the Steering Committee for the OnchocerciasLs Control program (OCp) declded that the sponsoring agencles of the Progrm - FAO, UNDP, I{IIO and the Bank - shouldfield a mlsslon to carry out a comprehensl.ve revlew of the progra in orderto lay a ProPer basis for its next six-year phase wtrlch w111 start in 1980. l'IIl0 has responslblllty for the vector control aspects of the mLsslon and the Bank has been given responslblllty for the economic developnent aspects. 2. As a consequence, the Bank ls launchlng an econonle review mission w'ith the general objective of determining the economlc develolnent impllca- tions of the Progr:rm. Drarring on exlstlng docurents, studies and reports as well as on its own inquirles in the field, the mlsslon rr111 nake a gen- eral assessment of the economlc developnent aepects of the program and make recommendatlons for the next phase. 3. In the frame'lork of these general objectlves the mission will endeavor to: (i) ( ii) assess what is knorsn and what sttll needs to be found out about the economic impact of oneho- cerciasis control in the progratr area; revlew natlonal developrnent strategies and poli- cies in the progrem area and assess t.helr suit- abillty; (iii) determine key obstacles - agronomic, economlc, soclological, health - to economic developnent in the program area; ( iv; deternine the extent to whlch the program has opened up new land for cultivation and aaaeas exlsting seEtlement/migratlon 6trategles, pollcles and instltutions' (v) determine the relevance of the plannlng netho- dology, ldentify barrlers to effectLve plannlng and recouoend an approprlate approach to planning for the program area; (vi) provide guidance on t.he economlc Justification of the proposed extenslon of the progran area. 4. Professor Elliot Berg from the Unlverslty of Michigan w'il1 lead the mission, wtrich will have the followtng schedule (approximate dates): Onchocerciasis EconomLc Review l{lsslon Terms of Reference l.l0 - l.17 APPENDIX I Page 3 Orlentatlon eeselona ln Waehlngton Upper Volta Ivory Coast Ghana Report Writlng Mal1 Benln Togo Nlger Report l{rltlng r.23 7.6 2.L3 2.20 3.13 3.20 3.27 4.3 2.4 2.tt 2.t8 3. l0 3.18 3.25 4.t - 4.8 April - May 5. In the fleld, the mlssion w111 llalse wlth the various national authorltlea concerned, IJNDP and FAO repreeentatlves, and Bank resident mis- slons. Durlng orientatlon seeslons and the report rrrltlng phase, the mission w111 draw upon the advl.ce of Bank staff as needed. 6. rhe misslon will prepare a report of 40-50 pageg containing a surmary and concluslons, a general sectLon and lndlvidual country sections;in addltlon, annexes can be added aB appropriate. A draft report should be avallable by June, L978.

APPENDIX II Page I The Definltlon and Measurenent of Economlc BenefLte fron Onchocerciaais Control l. In the nain PAG Report and the prlnclpal econmlcs annex (Annex vI-5, the Methodology of the Economlc Afrglyslq), there la no atEenpt to do a formal coitlrbeneftt analysls of the control Progran. In varlous p laces, men- tion is made of the "socioecononlc effects of onchocerclaslgrt"tthe econouic lnpact of onchocercLasis controlrtt varioue development acenarlos wlth and without the control program. Wtrlle estlmates of associated beuefits appear' they are not systenatically treated. l/ 2. Ttre maJor rate of return analysle tn the PAG Report ls ln fact done not for the control prograu but for a collectlon of settleuent Projects. The co6ta of the control progran are added to the coat of the proposed settlement projects and the benefits of the settlenent proJects becone the benefits of the control progras. 2/ rl PAG Report, annex VI-5, The Methodology of the Econonlc Analysis. Metho- dologlcal problems, data deflciencles, and tlme presaure lrere such that lt would be uncharttable to evaluate thls document too harshly. Never- theless, the analysls contalns a number of qr;estlonable assumptions and approaches. Ttre beneflts of eventr:al lndustrlal productl.on are mentioned as benefits of the control progran. A11 the costs of soil degradalon are lnputed to the onchocerclasls barrler to mlgratlon. The same ls true of the aglng of the populatlon. In the general dlscueelon, the costs of blindness are double-counted -- once ln tems of lncome lost, a second tlme ln terms of communlty costs of support. Ttrere are further anbigui- tLes on perhaps nore fundamental tratters, tnoat notably the assumptions used with regard to output produced by potentlal ernLgrants frm ttold" lands to new. Ttre Report apparently assirnes that there is no loes in "old landrr output when people enlgrale to new lands. But thLs either lnvolves an lrapllclt assumptlon that the rnarginal product of labor on old lands is zero, or lt sinply ls double countinge 1.€. cormting as benefits the gross output fron nlgranta on new lands without deducting output losses ln old lande fron whlch the mlgrants coo€. Z/ The control program ls assumed to last 20 years, wlth total costs estlnaEed to be $100 nilllon. fire beneflts of the flve naJorprojects are projected to be $470 ul.lllon. A 35-year Elme horizonls used. An additlonal table added beneflts of a group of so-called "supplementary proJectsr" for a total of $819 ntlllon, control costs remalnlng unchanged. Internal rates of return are then calculated. A 6Z IRR ls found for the flve proJectsr.a I0Z rate when the "supplementary projects, are added. (Table V-5.24, Annex VI-5, The Methodology of the Economlc AnaIysis , P. 52). APPENDIX II Page 2 Thls procedure Ls open to nrnerous objections. (a) It lnputes no beneflts to the control program as Buch. But -- and thls ls noted elsewhere ln the pAG Report --benefits of the progran come frm better health, trerrce reduced output loss via disabtllty, deblllty, and blind- ness, as well as vla lts contrlbutlon to openlng up net lands. (b) lt assumes that productlon from new lande requires fomal settlement proJects, wtrlch is not true. Spontaneous or unplanned mlgratlon l-s posslble; (c) it assumes that all settlenent projects ln the Program area are Lmpossible or unfeaelble unlees the OCP ls ln operatlon; It ass.'mee, that le, that dlsease control ls a necessary condltlon of resettleuent and that the OCP technlque of control ls cost-effectlve for all settlenent projects; and (d) lt Justifies the OCP by referrlng to a poorly defined, vaguely costed set of settlement proJects. At the tine, very llttle information exlsted on thoee projects; lt was certainly not clear that they would prove technlcally feasible or econootcally viable. It was always possible, moreover, that the proJects would not cooe to paes; thts would take from the OCP lts maJor econmlc benefits, leavlng it (wrongly, as noted ln point (a) above) wlthout flrm econorolc foundations. 4. In the paragraphs that fol1ow we sketch out an alternative approach to cost-beneflt analysis of the control progran. Ttre purpose is to help clarify definitlons of economic benefits and to lndlcate posslble orders of magnitudes of some of these beneflts. As was explalned ln the text, the economic benefits of the control progran flow from two main sources: avoid- i ance of losses ln lndivldual output, whlch we call labor-related benefits, anfl net increases ln output from the openlng up of new lands. Each w111 be discussed ln turn. A. Ilethodology for Measurement of lqbor-!.elated Benefits 5. Labor-related benefits of the control progran are the costs a6so- ciated with the di.sease. Four elements must be lncluded in rneasuring labor- related costs: (l) the relevant populatlon; (2) the tLme span and dlscount raEe; (3) ttre value of the output of the population; and (4) the impact of the 111nes6 on productivity. 6. The populat.ion to be considered ln measuring these costs should be Ehose at risk from the illness and econonically. I?re iaportance of the tine horlzon of the analysls is, ln large part, determj.ned by the lnterest rate APPENDIX II Page 3 chosen to discount cost flows to thelr present, value. Ttre dlscount rate should reflect the preference for preeent over future coneumptlon and the opportunlty costs of the lnvestment reaources lnvolved. ltre output cost of lllness le the value of output foregone when worktlme or efficlency islost, 1.e. the narglnal product of labor. the producttvlty effects of lllness are generally claselfled as disablllty (loss of working tine); debtlity (loss of efflclency); and death. In the present cese, blLndnees replaces death. A proportlon of output lost can be asslgned to each type of lllness effect. 7. As noted ln the text there exlst no concrete data lndicating thedlfferences ln productlvlty between lndlvlduala affllcted wlth oncho and lndivlduals wlthout tt. Indeed, there are no euch data fron studies of the lnpact of other diseases, whlch rnlght Buggegt ordere of nagnltude l/ of these productlvlty effects. 8. In the absence of such data, we have made a range of estimates ofproductivlty effects, and have calculated beneflt flows ln varying assrlmptlons about discount rates and the productlvlty of labor. These are shown below in Table I. 9. but Ttre labor-related productlvlty benefits are undoubtedly positive, they are probably not large, for a nurnber of reasons. (a) Incones are very lon in the OCP BE€a. Accordlng to Ehe PAG Lelqrt, annual per caplta lnc@es ln the relevant regLons were between gl4 and 940 (1972). 2/ Average incooes ln the poor countrles of the inte?ior and the relatlvely poor northern reglona of the coastal Btates reuaLn low today -- probably ln the nelghborhood of $50-75 per. capita. fire incremental output resultlng from reduced nulsance effects, reduced debillty and avoldance of bllndneaa Eust therefore be small. r/ 2/ Cf. The llterature survey ln Rol Essai sur l'Econonle de la Santd. land Ballay, I'Economie due Paludisme: ltrese Unlverelte des Sclences c €sr culte des encea onmLquee, Grenoble, 1972, p. 8.(See 8., Welsbrod, et al, Diseaee and Economlc Develo t: The ofP arasltlc Dlseases 1n St. vereity o onsin Press, son, ort most care u etteEpt yet nade to meaaureproductlvlty effects of a dlsease ln a less-developed cormtry envlronnent. subslstence farmers, hovever, are not included inthts study. the PA9.$eBoTt gives gl4 as average per caplta inco,ne in upper volta, where 807. (52,000) of the roral ocp area blind population orerelocated. However, this seens an unusualry low estLmate and may refer to money lncooe only. t APPENDIX II Page 4 (b) It is reasonable to assume that nuieance lossee are relevant nalnly to thoee who llve close to the maln rLvere and thelr tributarles, but the populatlon densltles ln these localltlea are generally low. Sinllarly, whlle oncho ls hlghly prevalent throughout the OCP area, severe lnfectlon (for example, densltltes of nore than 25 nicrofilariae ln skin suipa) ls probably restrlcted to the spareely populated areaa close to the rlvers. It SeeIDs reasonable to suppose that slgnlficant losses ln output due to deblllty occur nalnly aEong these severely lnfected lndlviduals -- i.€.1 a relatively snall proportlon of the total PoPu- lat lon. (c) Thlrdly, the factore lnfluencing labor producElvity are nnnerous, ad the lupact of change of any one of them ls llkely to be abscured tf the othere remal'n unchanged. (d) Flnally, there is evldence that thoee most Lntenslvely affected by oncho are also touched by nalarla, tryPano- sonLasis, schistosomlasls, and other parasltes. I/ I Thls ls r Zoure, As eported pects de ln a l95l study bY Ctrastaln, clted 1'Onchocercoae en Haute Voltar The by Ph ee de 11lp DocEorat t Bordeau II, p. 96. APPEI{DIX II Page 5 lO. The present value of the laborrelated coate of llInesg le glven by the following formula, wlth the notatlon explalned below. PVL = =fn. * p, * pax (, * rl3*E'(r + r)1-,, t *r, +t=n nrlr)x(l+d)t t=n PVL = Il= E= P=g= Pr- Pa= v= ra present value of the loss current perlod termlnatlon date of analysle area population growth rate of populatlon proportlon of poprrlatl.on at riEk proportion of populatlon actlve in rgorkforce value of marglnal product of labor growth rate of narglnal labor productlvl.ty proportlon of at-risk populatlon dtsabled proportlon of at-rlek pop. debllltated proportion of at-risk poP. bllnd percent loss of output due to dlsablllty percent less of output due to deblllty percent loes of output due to bllodnese discount rate - = - f Parameters used Ln Evaluation ll. The values assrned for the paranetere of the above eqr:ation in evaluating the labor-relaEed costs of onchocerclasts ln the OCP area follow: (l ) Populatlon a. Base area populatlon: Report b. Populatlon at-risk: 10 ntlllon people, gl-ven by the PAG I ullllon people, glven by the PAG Report (2) (3) (4) Estinated APPEIIDIX II Page 6 c. Populatlon actlve ln the rsorkforce: 70 percent I/ d. Populatlon growth rate: 2.5 percent Zl Tlne Questlons a. Rates of discount: I0 and 15 percent b. Tlme horizon: 25 years Va1ue of outpur: 940 - 75 3l Productlvlty Itrpact a. nulsance (fly bltes): 0.5 - 1.0 percent of output b. disablllty (reduced vtslon) z 2.5 - 5 percent of outpur c. deblltty (reduced efficlency due to heavy parasite load):2.5 - 5 percent of output d. bllndness: 100 percent lose of output. Losses 12. Table I presents a range of estLnates of the preeent value of the 25-year laborrelated costs of onchocerclasls. They range fron $21-g94 niIllon. The most lmportant laborrelated cost ls the loss of output due to bllndness. The labor-related beneflts nay be compared to the estiuates of the present value of the control progren costa, estimated in Table II which follows on Page 6 of Appendlx II. l/ ORSTOM, Les Mlgrations de Travail I'lossi Oragadougou, L975. 2/ This rate approxlmates recent years. the average populatlon growth ln the area ln 3/ Estlmated by lnflatlng the PAG estlnate of per caplta OCP area incomes to 1978 levels. APPENDIX TT Paee 7 =.n.aol ^,_uri n }:.\.D' .t\t(r6aclo o F. }.a o6 ..a xoAood(rr!6H()O.tA r,<o e! ^:l ;l' .q;;.1 --****i " F Fs -.r--l ^. .t olaaol FNI.' I € o (\t o D?oo d --o -a L,r oN .Daatg6rtl ia o6 )a a<A O O Gt O ri 6OO.ar, FAO Lo6 Da 'aH O O ca c' rt oOO..t7aFr{4> l.eort ta a.tO -{ O O Ga .,t atl .r-l -,lOOJ\Fa FAl'> .a{N oocl .nfr6OOtsA FAO o F{ taoh .a{}aCrr{OOdrncto ts.{C Dact'l a.a )ao.{ooGar,1FtOAc,OtsA FFaG Da Oh )a taO -a O O (\a .,.| tt C,AOOhFa FAU> }l a.a a.l .aSC,6aa\aO oA .a6 .|l.5aN o6'l0 oA a.eO .tt L f.aoAooGto..roAOO.i'FaF-tG a{ }a l.t .NOGt6aO o F. / aact ft F G, or or r€, GI \t <t ..|l.|'t\ ..tx aa..l.eFl 6a Ga (,o ?. Dac, .^. }.)aOFaOOGar.lflh .1 OClts,lA ?a ar> -., - -l br .tsooolru "'l * rlf! -'r cn oit\ Da .)q}aO.n6 Noo d Da 'a a.t Noo F. .9 o ni <,1 .-! --l . o elto ".l - rn .e ,n *l ,o COF r\ elan Fl Fa lal C I ar\ Go @o .al.. taFl (\a Ga Noo FI N xoo Dq ..! l.a k o .o .{ { c) 3a!.o rt xcrpgt ,\ (,i) c46eruNpoa, 6 k 3.1 E.,r 3 EPY..{-:Ora! ;: a r: ). 6r:ir:3() ! i. i' g 'n '5 ):, -{"' .1 "'., uu, u r' rr d u- a: - tJ :r.ii ',1 .li ';i !i ,< !oo6 6'Jq<l I c !. -.,:ll'.1 :t u .., .il,'-i s^ -t.l ri'? .'j';i <.9i'': [7.!'.) a't ., ic .: )"1U C-- cc, .i ot U! o x9AC'<Xr: .JAea, =<ra=E.EA=A! n{ca{r9ru41fJ1c'i:crt:-a- €!u.o9 3:4 o sC ,oa<eA =A -E =c.,,, t!t +,>. aug:OCr{'^2{!U,.|uO 'JC.H.<=OO:ta-''.;tS.:i<=3. O -a <(Java:Ja 'ao.id t1 11 . iti.o<rr ou rt u) oI a a o, C'u(,c t':u!o!. .J Z' u :, Cr F. o,\ :l :t ii rl il II il fl APPENDIX II Page 8 TABLE II Present Value of Costs of the Onchocerciasls Control Progrm(g nllllons) (s25 nllllon per year) Years of Program t0 15 20 25 $1 s4 190 213 227 $r2s t46 r55 162 13. For reasons sqgested ln the text, lower dlecount rate8 and longer tine horlzons 11ay be nore-sultable for evaluatlng the OCP than the rrconven- tLonal" IO - l5 percent, Zl-yeat aaslnptlona. Ttreee latter dlecount rates are based on the assumptlon that ln alternatlve usesr the reeources lnvolved in the OCP can generate outPut streama of th18 nagnitude. It ls doubtful that Ehls is so, for reaaons nentloned ln the text. Ttre use of a longer tlme horlzon (50 yeais, for exmple) brlnge benefits above coata (preeent values) at a 9 p"t""ot discount EBt€. Itre uee of a very low dlecount rate (r*rtctr means that the welfare effects on the next generatlon are valued almoet as highly as the welfare effects on the preeent generatlon) brlngs the preeent value of ocp beneflts to over tslce the present value of the progra's costs' with a flfty-year tlme horlzon. The assroPtlons and reeulte of the analysls are set out below. As lons (r) (2) (3) (4) (s) 50-year tlne horizon Project costs a. Flrst 15 Years $25 nll.lYr. b. Last 35 years $12.5 nll./Yr. Populatlon growth tate - 2.57 Productl,vity growth rate - 3.07' Onchocerclasls productivlty ef fects a. Nulsance b. DtsabilttY c. DebllttY d. Bllndness 17. 57. 57. r 002 Dlscount Rate .10 .15 APPENDIX II Page 9 10 l5 460.9 286.5 256.5 237.7 208.5 t76.6 2!.LLDiscount Rate (Z) P.V. Project Cost ( gMillion) P.V. Productlvlty ( $Mlllion) t , I 37 .6 368.3 285 .3 B. New Land Beneflts of Onchocerclasis Control d= 2 Present value of decreased so11 of longer fallows (f.o): 233.4 198.8 r00.5 14. There are two main categorles of benefit to opening of "nedt Lands through onchocerciasls control: (1) the value of output of inrnigrants set- tltng on them; (2) decreased soll degradatlon on "old" lands because of the longer fallows allowed by lncreased emlgratlon. 15. There are three categorles of costs: (t) ttre value of output on rroldrr land lost because of enlgratlon; (2) the costs assoclated w1th moving(borne by the mlgrants thenselves); and (3) the cost of "complementary in- vestnents"r l.e. costs ln addttion to the control of onchocerclasls required to make the "new" land habttable and productlve. 16. The present value of the sr.m of the beneflts less the costs ls the net present beneflt to the openlng of "newt'land. Ttre followlng equations formallze these deflnltions: A. Benefits *),t. Present value of output of mlgrants on new lands (Q r.f *arr.f x(l-d)t= P.V.QN t= I L: = ntrnber of laborers nigrated to new lands by yeart t *rx = average product of labor on new lands in year t rate of discount degradation on o1d lands because L-s b x (r - d)t = P.v. (FQo)L SE o)xfxQ t E= I b = base yearf = relatlon between nunber of laborers and rate of soir erosion on old lands. ( APPETIDIX II Page l0 B. Costs I Present value of ourput of nlgrants on old lands tOll>t PL: oMPL.b x (l - d) t .u. Ql,x o wLu marglnal product of labor on old lands before migration 2. Present value of costs of nigrarion (M): (L:*M)x(l-d)t= P.v.M. t= 1 M = cost of movlng a mlgrant farmer and dependents 3. Present value of conplenentary costs of openlng ner, lands (c): NNxc=c NN = hectares of new land c= cost of complementary lnputs required to open a hectare of new land o) - p.v. tolr, + l,r + c) C. Net Benefit P.V.NB = P.V. 17. No atternpt is made here to estlmate values for these equaEions. Data avallablu are in general too crude for credible results. Ihe critical estitrates, those for ttcomplementary Lnvestmentstt depend on the types of settlement projects selected, or uore precisely, the degree to which occupatlon of new lands involves ttguLdedtt settlement arrangeuents. 18. However, comparison of the present value of the labor-related benefits to onchocerciasis control with the coats of the control program indlcates the size of "new lands" net benefits whlch roust arise to make Eotal OCP-reduced beneflEs equal OCP costs. Using a l0 pereent rat.e of discount, the present value of the cost of the program ranges frorn $154 to $227 nlllion, depending on lts length (tO - 25 years). At ten percent, the laborrelated benefi-ts range from $38 - 94 urllllon, so for benefits Eo equal costs, the average annual flow of new lands benefits must be $6.5-$20.8 nilIlon. Progran (FQQN* APPENDIX II Page 11 costs dlscounted at 15 percent range fron $125 to $162 nilllon, and labor- related beneflts fron $20-$50 n1111on; Bo the average annual benefit from new lands, at a 15 percent rate of dlscount, which w111 nake beneflts and costs equal, would be $11.6 - $22.0 milllon. The range of estimates ls shown below, ln terms of annual benefits frorn the new lands effect, as well as present values. In S Mtlllons Present Value Required Annual Benefit Flow From New Lands LaborRelated Beneflts Maxlmun Mlnlnum .I0 Dlscount Rate .15 Duratlon of ocP l0 yrs. 25 yrs. l0 yrs. 25 yrs. OCP Costs 154 227 125 162 94 94 50 50 38 38 20 20 r2.8 - 6.6 20.8 - 14.7 15.3 - r1.6 22.0 - 17 .4 19. I{hat was observed earlier about tine horizons applles with parti- cular force to new lands benefits; both the slordng dorm of erosion on old lands and the openlng up of new lands are clearly long-term effects, which may lrarrant a hlgher valuation of future beneflts than ls funpllclt ln the "conven-tional" dlscount rates. Extendlng the llfe of the beneflt strean or reducing the rate of dlscount rmuld nake the requlred annual averege new lands benefit smaller stlll.

APPENDiX III Page i Abandoned Valleys: The Hlstorlcai Debare I . The analysis in the text ( ch. iV ) of obstacles Eo the rc,ore inten- sive utilization of the OCP "empty lancis" also has historical irnpiications. The factors that inhibit present occupation of these areas must have been equally constraining in t.he past. They therefore raust enter into the ex-planation of why the valleys were not occupied. This bears drrectly on EhequesEion of whether the valleys of the Volta River Basin were "abandonedr" and if so whether onchocerciasls eras the princlpal reason. These questions arose within the framework of a more general Lssue rel-at,ed to the Mission's work: to what extent can the exlsting distrlbution of populat!-on in the OCp area be explained by the presence of Slmullum? 2. The issues are complex, and have only begun to be seriously ex-plored. It is likely, as mentioned earlier, that different forces have been present. in different parts of the region. In some countries (notably norEhern Ghana and northern Ivory CoasE) lgth century military activities seem to have been decisive. These are sald to have led to a wi:hdrawal ofpopulation along a broad east.-west belt between savannah and forest. Along this belt, population densities are low not only in river vaL1eys, but every- where, except for a few thickly setcled pockets. l/ 3. It is with respect Eo the Red and White Vota that ihe abancioned valleys hypothesis is most forcefully presented. 2/ However, a recent, study,by an ORSTOM researcher, J.P. Hervouet, argues thit these vall-eys were never I I One early study of norEhern Ghana suggested that population clusteredinto hilly areas Eo avoid mou ture in North Mamprussi, Gold No. 34, L937, p. 9). The sam "... large areas of the count some of the bigger rivers, ha flies and slave raiders often and poor vegetatlon of fhe oI ,nted slave raiders. (C.I^I. Lynn, Agricul- CoasE Department of Agricuj_ture, Bulletin ;e writ,er later emphasized other factors: ry r particularly on the . .. slopes toward ve been left entirely, and although tse-tse recelve the discredit,, the stony conditiond farm lancis round the compound ruins suSSest t.hat soil exhaustion was a factor not unconnected with their abandonment. tt (C.W. Lynn, "Agriculture Ln North Mamprussi: A Review of a Decade's Progress, tt ln Farm anC Forest Vol. 3, i942, p. 81. These references are from David Wi lllams, The Probable Economic Effects ofthe Eradiclation of Onchocerciasis in Northern and U er Ghana nsul t ant 2 / Cf. PAG ReporE. P. 60 s ReporE, WHO, PD .r I 68.M0. APPENDIX III Page 2 much populated, at least in recent tlnes. l/ According to th16 etudyr land was sufflclently abundant away from the vaTleys, and life ln the valleys r{as unsafe, harsh and lonely. After 1900, rlverlne lands were occupled by villagers fleeing from forced labor and other exactlons of colonial rule. Between the beglnning of the colonial presence and L928, the Hervouet, studyfound I9l vlllages which were established for these reasons. After 1928, most of these were abandoned, agaln because of excessive pressure6 put on villagers by the colonial government. Z/ Many moved across the border tothe Gold Coast. Hervouet also nentlons varlous epidernlcs which ravaged the reglon until 1940. He belleves that sleeplng slckness may have been afactor, but that the role of onchocerclasls ls unclear, because of itsgradual character. 4- The argument in thls new research ls that the Red and White Voltas were unpopulated rather than depopulated. Earller studles, which argued the contraryr S/ ate sald to be based on small and unrepresentatlve samples, tolack historical depth, and to ask the wrong questions. They ask wtry the valleys were abandoned, when they should have asked whether they were ever occupied at all, and if so, why. 5. Just as these recent findlngs question t.he fact of abandonment of the river valleys, so too do they raise new quest.ions about the role of onchocerciasis in explalning populatlon dist.ributlon. The Hervouet study attrlbutes populatlon movpments away from t,he Red and l,ltrite Volta Valleys to the difficult soclal condltions of llfe there, colonLal taxr rabor and agrlcultural policies, wlld anLmals, and perhaps dlsease. It ls iuteresting that an earller study by Rolland and Ballay gave a sinllar listing of reasons for the abandonment of the villages they studled. I.then these writers asked villagers why they moved fron the valleys, the most frequent response was that it was due to the dangers of wild anlmals. The next most frequently t/ J.P. Hervouet. Peuplement et l"louvements de P opulatlons dans les Valldes des Voltas Blanche et Rouge, ORSTOM, Centre de Ouagadougou, L977. Hervouet studied 287 vlllages,805 neighborhoods, and over lI0 sites of abandoned habitation ln the Red and White Volta valleys of the Upper Volta. He intervlewed fonner lnhabltants of vlllages which had moved, and thelr neighbors, and also dld much archlval research ln Ouagadougou and Abldjan. 2/ Ibld., p. 34. 3I T.E. Hilton, "Growth and Dlstributlon of Populatlon 1n the Upper Reglon of Ghana," 1, Populatlon ln Tropical Afrlca, N., York, 1968; J.M. Hunter, "River Bllndness ln Nangodl: A Hypothesls of Cyc1lcal Advancettl-es Mouvements de on de NobEre): , V, No. 2, i968. and Re treat , t' ln Geographical Review 1966; G. R.eny, population sur la rive gauche de la Volta rouge (A6gi in Cahlers de I'ORSTOM , tdlle Sciences Hurnaines, VoI . APPENDIX III Page 3 cited reason was forced labor recruitment (before 1946). Flnally, sickness was mentloned -- people belng "kllled by the bush." l/ 6. Much remains unclear ln this debate; Bany of the lssues are un- resolved. The debate has been based malnly on the lnformatlon available on the Red and Whie Volta. Studles on other part6 of the OCP area are essentlal for a broader understandlng of the lssues. 7. Based on the knowledge avallable from exlstlng studies of the questlon, and on the experience of the OCP, the follow'Lng conclusions seem Justified: (a) It is doubtful that some regions (such as the south-central parts of Upper Volta) were much populated before Ehe twentieth century. 2/ (b) Polltical adminlstrative measures durlng the colonial period(forced labor, taxes, mllltary recrultnent, other denancis) provoked a "generallzed depopulation" of the central and southern parts of Upper Volta. 0ther factors seem to have been at work elsewhere (e.g. wars of the tlme of Sauory), ln earller perlods. (c) The vlllages whlch have been abandoned are situat,ed, for the most parf, close to river banks, places which are noraally hlghly infested with the vector of onchocerciasls. This suggests that onchocerciasls r^ras an inportant factor in the underpopulatlon and depopulatlon of many valleys and riverine reglons. (d) In additlon to historical-cultural factors, lndicatlon of the lmportance of onchocerclasls can be found in local languages, a nurnber of whlch contaln tertrs specifically descrlbing the clinlcal synptortrs of onchocerciasls; atrong sotre groups, moreover, t.here exist tradltional cures at onchocerclasis (the chameleon fetlsh at T111, Ghana, for example) . (e) The proposltlon that onchocerclasls ls the only reason for such "depopulatlon" of the valleys as has occurred cannot be sustained on the basls of present evidence, nor does the evldence lndlcat.e that lt was everywtrere the princlpal reason. There ls little doubt, however, that U Rolland and Ballay, 1'Onchocercose dans 1e Epyer B1qq, pp. 44 tf.. 2l Archaeologlcal finds near Yakal, in the river bed of the white Vo1ta, indicate a more anci.ent occupation of the area. APPENDIX III Page 4 it was widely present, and that lt ls an lmportant factor explaining the low rate of utlllzatlon of many riverl.ne areas. (f) Further research and analysls of these rnatters can do much to clarify the Lssues under contentton. Such research should lllunlnate not only the past, but also the future developmentpotential of the reglon. APPENDIX IV page I The Need for Permanent Intenslve Farmlng 1. It was noted ln the text that the densely populated Parts of the OCP area, and notably ln Upper Volta, noveEent of populatl'on into rrnew lands" will provide only partial reIlef to problems of population Pressure' shortened fallows and declining yields. Dependlng on the aoount and produc- tiviEy of the new land that ultlmately proves cultlvable ln the Upper Volta, it ls unllkely t.hat more than ten years of the upper volta's increnental populatlon growth could be absorbed there, ln the abeence of changes in farrning practlces. 2. There |s llttle question that the Eost fundamental problen is how to improve and ultlmately transform farmlng practlces on the Mossl plateau and elsewhere ln the OCP area, so that perranent lntensive cultivatlon is possible. I.ltrat is required are Lmproved farmlng systems, which have been described as "rnrnagement systens which are culturally conpatible with existing farming practlces, which Lncrease output and which rely heavlly on maintenance and l-nprovement of sol1 fertlllty as a basls for increaslng outPut... Soil fertlllty thus becones an end, not a Eeans, avoldlng the couloon mlsconceptlon derived from the mechanl-cal appllcatlon of the seed fertlll.zer technology which worked mtracles in more favored areag, to zones of llnlted natural potential. Under the lnfluence of thls approach, we have tncreasingly tended to percelve yleld increases as a functlon of (quantltatively and qualltatively) increased input use, neglecting the fact that optlnal condltlons have to be created for thelr us€.rr 3. Farnlng systen lmprovement can be lntroduced gradually, or it nlght involve a baslc transformation of existlng practices. Gradual introduction requires the application of "conventional'r packages (cholce of proper seeds, attentlon to spacing and to tining of plantlng and weeding, etc. ) adding newer element.s related to.better land use -- €og. ridglng, terracing, mulching of crop resldues and leguminous fallows, as exlstlng soclo-econom{c condl.tions and constraints permit. 4. These kind of changes Eerge wlth nore baslc transformations, which are derived fron experiences of ICRISAT I / stations Ln India and which in recent years have shown dramatlc experlmental results. Ttre application of the new technology has so far been conflned nalnly to the Indlan subconti- nenE, and to parts of East and CenEral Afrlca (Kenya and Botswana), where experiences revealed that traditlonal soll conservatlon measures alone were inadequate to malntaln yields and prevent soll degradatlon. I I lnEernatlonal Crop Research Institute on Ehe Senl-Arid Tropics. APPENDIX IV Page 2 5. Water rnanagenent -- uslng ralnfall more effectively -- is at the heart of the new technology. In the context of arld and seml-arid situa- tions, water management technology ls a component of correct land and water use. This seeks to ensure that the maxlmtrm quantlty of hrater is nade avail- able for crop grorrth, and that surplus water ls slowly but effectively drained frou the land and stored in tanks and reservoirs for domestlc use, anlmal watering, and supplemental irrl-gation. The preclse system to be used varies with local conditions, but the principles remaln the same. 6. Research on this method is sufficlently advanced to test its intro- duction under practical conditions on a pilot basis; however, further experl- mentation to 6utt local speciflc condltions w111 be required. I{htle baslc research continues on water as an essentlal lngredlent Ln crop growth and performance, pllot schemes are needed to better understand practlcal lssues, e.g. degree of grade needed to control run-off on field surfaces and splllways|n differlng solI types and rainfall patterns; Eethods of water flow control ln main channels; variants ln desLgn and constructlon of storage tanks and reservolrs. Also needed ls more knowledge of local soclal conditlons as they bear on absorptl-on of the new technology. 7. Experience has shosn that earller concepts of soil conservation technology ate not by themselves an adequete answer to the problems faced|n the arld and senl-arid troplcs. Preventlon of loss of soll through soil conservation measures is, of course, sound practlce, provided that it is properly carried out. Indeed, fully effective soil conservation meaeures closely approach modern land and lrater use prlnclples. From the small faruer's vlewpolnt, however, soil conservatlon work ls regarded as an unre- warding and heavy "chore" forced upon him by overzealous government offlcers. 0n the other hand, the water rmnagement technology has the advantage of yieldlng relatively quick and vislble results, unllke traditlonal soil erosion practices. Farmers soon see benefits ln terus of Lncreased crop yields and thus more profitable farnlng as well as better water supplies.put this way, these rDeasures can be the basis for progresslve modernization of the farulng process, leading to the lntroducElon of better crop varletles, fertilizers and pest control measures, as well as ridging, mulchlng, eventual green rnanurlnS, e tc. 8. Modern hrater mrnagement technology speclfically aims to do three things: (i) In conditions of limited ralnfall to ensure that naxinun avallabte water ls stored ln the sol1 profl'le under the surface where the crops are grown. This lnvolves a field surface cultivatlon systemr e.8. ridges or beds laid out on correctly graded contours whlch allow tiue for water to percolate downwards lnto the soll proflle; (1r) use of graded run-off systens which allow for movement of excess water at slow speed to Protected (grassed) splllways. APPENDIX IV Page 3 Theee splllways nay requlre addltlonal protection and steeper grades in the foru of naaonry welrs, gablon wel.rs, etc.; (1ii) provleion of clearly deslgned dralnage r.ays leadlng either to rrater storage tanks or reaervolre or to nraLn exlt water- ways. 9. I'tany other elements enter lnto lmproved farnlng systens, all of them ained at enrlchlng the soil's physlcal and chenical propertles: deepplorlng, rlpplng, rldglng, preventLon of bush firee, mulching and lncorporatlon of vegetatlon, (crop resldues and planted fallows), pernanent soil coverage wlth llvtng or dead vegetatlon; plantlng of trees, buehes and perennial crops -- Partlcularly the leguninous Acacla Alblda ln areas slth lees than 11000 nnn. of ralnfall. 10. It ls noted tn the text that wtrlle there is lmnense promlse in these new methods, the obstacles Ln the way of thelr adoptlon are also for-rnldable. Thelr general appllcatlon under practlcal conditlons posea severe challenges which are outllned ln the text. Pllot proJecte and programs of related research addresslng the6e problems are therefore essentl.al. 11. Transforoatlon of farning practlces 1111 requlre vast effort in training and educatlon, fornal and non-fornaI, for women as well as Een. Peasants do not easlly change baslc farmlng practlees, and wlth reason; thelr Present faraLng systeu ls the result of hundrede of years of e:rperlnentatLon and adaptatlon. Assrnlng that generally eultable approaches energe from thepilot stage, the rnaln challenge w111 be to wln peasant ecceptance of the new faruing nethods. It ls not too aoon to begin eerious plannlng efforts ained at design of pllot extenslon/educatlon schenee whtch rl11 increase farmer receptlvenesa to the new approaches.

APPENDIX V Page I Toward More Cost-Effectlve Disease Control l. The technology of the OCP ls an aq/esome achievement, developed with care and imaglnation after more than a decade of West African exPeriEentaEion. A fleet of helicopters, several fixed-wlng aircraft, almost 200 Land Rovers' a perfectly functioning radlo network, the milltary-like precision of the spraying and surveillance operaEion -- all ts overwheltring to the average observer. It is hard to think of another instltutlon in the region that works with such efflciency. 2. Indeed, ghe scale and conplexiEy of the operation should be a cause for concern ln the long-run. The OCP technology is not only expansive; it demands other inputs in exceedingly scarce supply - manPower, coordinaEing capaciEy, organizatlonal flexibltlty. It ls not easy to see how most of the governmenEs of the OCP area could flnd ln thelr budgets Ehe recurrent costs required to keep Ehe program golng ln the future. It ls not easl-er to see how this extraordinarlly complex regional undertaklng could be maintained wiEhout absorbing a disproportionate share of 1ocally available manpower and organizaEional capacity, or continuing rellance on foreign sources of these inputs, which would be undesirable even if possible. 3. As experience with control technlques lncreases, and knowledge of the behavlor of the vector deepens, alternative control possibilities will emerge. A1so, the objective of the conErol program ls the achievement of a "Eo1erable" level of control, and new possibllities nay exist for trade-offs between "tolerable" levels of the disease and the costs of control. L/ Shouid chemoEherapy research bear fruit, and severe cases of infect,ion be treatable with little risk, stlll more trade-off possiblllties would open up. 4. Durlng the next phase of the controL progran, these new options must be used Eo reconsider the technology of vector controi and to seek more cost-effective approaches. It is necessary to nake avallable speciai funding to finance the research for the immediate, more appropriate techniques and approaches which are required. 5. At the same time, the magnlficent OCP infrastructure will remain in place for at least the next five years. Like many oEher observers, the members of the Economic Review Mlsslon were strongiy fuupressed wiEh the reach and efficacy of the OCP's transport and communicatlons systeu, and L/ More limiEed forms of attack on the vector rnay be possible. For example, llmited spraying durations may be feaslble, especia)-ly in forest areas; treatmenE could be restricied:c sltes near sizeable population agglo- merations; smal1 villages in hyperendemic areas coul<i be assisted to Eove, eEc. See J.F. Walsh, "0. the tsiology and Control of the Vectors of Human Onchocerclasis - With Speciai Reference Eo West Africa." Paper presented at WACP Syreposium on Cnchocerciasis, Accra, June L977. APPENDIX V Page 2 equally strongly incllned to propose some additlonal utlllzation of this system. we did not have time, nor hrere we adequately equlpped, to system-atically explore the possibllltles. We dld consider at length the potentials and problens of utilizing the transport network for some form of primaryhealth care delivery, for three prlnclpal reasons: (a) health programs have upEo now tended to concentrate on curaElve mediclne, on urban areas and on conventlonaldellvery systens, so rural coverage and preventl,ve efforts have been llmited; (b) the rural populations ln the ocp area6 have been among theleast-provided wlth rnedlcal servlces of any klnd because of their remoteness and difficulty of accessl (c) J.ong-term control of oncho may be strengthened by preventive Beasures lnvolving public health educatlon - for example stress on areas durlng hours of particularly intense blackfly activity, etc. L/ 6. Closer reflectlon and extended dlscusston after the uission's return froro the field have not dininished the fundamental appeal and potential of Eheldea. After all, one of the najor reasons for the lneffectiveness of rural health delivery projects ln less developed countries generally is inadeqr:ate transPort and communication. And lt ls precisely lts disclpline, its regu-larity, and its capaclty to overcoEe transport uncertalntLes and breakdowns that distinguishes the OCP infrastructure. 7. There are, of course, rlsks and problens. Ihe exlstlng survelllance staff cannot be used. Means must be found to devise a system whlch can "piggy-back" on the transport network r.r'1 thout compromising Lts present effec- tlveness. It is essential that a progran be devlsed whlch can be carried on in some form after the OCP ls ended, or lts present technology ls changed, or which can leave behlnd some klnd of instltutlonal structure capable of having longer-term lmpact. 8. To devise such a program w111 requlre trmaglnatlve and knowledgeable inquiry in the field. We urge that a smalI misslon be sent to explore the suirablllty of such a project wlth OCP and locaI government officlals, and assuning lt is accepEable in prlnclple to the relevant partles, that thls mi.sslon PrePare a detalled project proposal 1n collaboraElon r.dth loca1 authorities. Such a project would be attractlve from a number of points of view. Flrst, lt would slgnlficantly deepen the health lmpact of the OCP, by bringing addltional health care Eo the populatlons most afflicted by oncho- cerciasis. These also happen to be the people wlth least access to social l/ See Walsh, o cit.. for furiher Ciscusslon. APPENDIX V Page 3 services generally, so the equlty lmpact would be very strong. Secondly, utlllzatlon of the OCP network for these addltional servicee would lncrease the economlc "vlability" of the OCP, in Ehe senae of providlng more services per dollar of infrastructure co8t. Flnallyr an experlment along these lines would yleld valuable general lessons about what tright be achievable in rural health care dellvery if regular transport and communlcaEion could be assured. I APPENDIX VI Page I De finlttons of Sotl Catesories and Methods of Es tltratlon of Areas Avallable for Agrlculture 1. In the solls analysls undertaken for thls nission, it is assrmed that the nedlcal constral.nts ln the unpopulated areao have been removed' Ehat these areas can be made available for agrlcultural developent, and that their development potential can be evaluated, baeed on thelr pedological and soil- hydrotoglcal propertles. Ttre evaluatlon has been based on general data, mostly of a reconnalssance nature, supplenented by some more detalled, locally avallable lnforuatlon. Ttrls local lnforuatlon is, however, too scanty to allow an overall extrapolatlon. 2. For Mall no sultable tnforuratlon on soll conditlons is avaliable. Consequently, the derlved data are especlally uncertaln. Ttre data base is limited to topographlc rnaps, a small amount of detalled soLl lnformation and suall-scale generalized soil maps, such as the FAO So11 Map of the World, on a scale of l:510001000. 3. Furthermore, ln many cases no lnfornatlon on the geographlcal distributlon of Ehe populatlon could be obtalned. In these cases, lnferences were made based on the topographlc uaps, though even thls was not always posslble slnce certaln traps erere not avallable (€.9. out of stock at I.G.N., Parls) . 4. Another factor hanperlng accurate quantlflcatLon is the consl-der able migratlon and movement of people rrlthln the varlous countrl-es. Nearly everywhere new villages have been butlt by spontaneous mlgrants. Rellable statlstlcs and records on these activltles are not avallable. Consequently, areas that are presumed to be avallable may prove to have been occupied in the meantlme. 5. The unpopulat.ed or sparsely populated areas were plotted with the help (where possible) of populatlon densLty maps based on the latest census data; in other cases, lnferences are made, based on the most recent available topographlcal uraps, taklng account of the presently cult,lvated areas in relaElon Eo thls populatlon. It ls asstmed that farning ln the project area ls nalnly of the tradltlonal subslstence type, wlth llnlted cash income, based on shlfting cultlvatlon. Home conslnptlon ls taken as a rounded 200 kg. of graln per caplta per year. Ttre average yleld ls assrned to be 500 - 600 kg/ha. Ttris Eeans that 0.3 - 0.4 ha. per caplta are required forbasic food supply. A further 0.1 - 0.2 ha. per caplta ls added for some cash lncome. rn total, the necessary per capita hectarage amounts to 0.6 ha. withln the shifElng cultlvatlon systetr generally nlth tno-year cultivation on the same plot, followed by long fallows. Ttris is assrned to requlre 5 ha.per caplta. Further, slnce not all land ls sulEable for arable cropplng, around 8 ha. of land will have to be avallable per capita for a norrdegSading shtftlng cultivatlon sysEern. Therefore a populatlon density of L2.5/lmz can be supported under present conditlons of tradltlonal farmlng lnputs, yields, etc. The addltlon of Ehe cashcrop, cotton, whlch receives appllcations of APPENDIX VI page 2 some fertlllzer, makes posslble a rotatlon whlch, wlthgut danaglng the equlI1- brlr-m, can support a populatlon denslty of up to 20/kfr', rslthout a degradLng influence on s9i1 conditlons. In dellneatlng the avallable areas, thls density (20/kn-) has been taken as lndlcatlve of the dlvldlng llne between available and non-avallab1e lands. In the dlstant future, when shlftlng cultivation wlll have been replaced by sedentary agrlculture rrlth all nodern inputs, much hlgher populatlon densltlea can of course be sustalned. Reductlon Factors 6. The remalnlng areas, excludlng forest reaerves, natlonal parks etc. have been evaluated as to thelr agrlcultural potentLal and aggregated accord- ing to sultablllty class. These gross area figuree have been converted into net areas, conslderlng the follotrlng reduction factors: Part of the area ls covered by lttho solls Solls mlneraux bruts) which consl-st of rock debris, lronpana, and gravel at the soil surface and/or have very ehallow profiles. These are considered to be Class 5 for halomorphlc and sodic soils. As the soil condltlons are very patchy, some marginally sultable spots can be found in the uneult.able areas. Based on avallable lnforruatl,on, thls ls estlmated to be I0 percent of the gross area. Due to the scales used, soll mape show areaa of sultable soils as homogeneous, but these contain patches that are unsultable for agrlcultural developent. Locally available detalled lnformatlon lndlcates that the reductl.on percentages for this consEraLnt vary betrseen 5 percent and 35 percent, as lndicaEed. The reduction factor for lnfrastructural loss of land to cropping, the area occupled by houses, dlspensarles, Echools, roads, flood prutection dtkes, dralns, etc., is estlmated at l0 to 30 percent. The Soils of the OCP Area 7. So11 condl,tlons ln the potentlal areas are complex. For practical purposes, six soll-agronomlcal groups have been dlstlngulshed (based on ORSTOI,1 reconnaissance sol1 reports and detatled lnformatlon relat.lng to a few specific projects). Each unlt can be consldered an entlty fron the polnt of view of land development, as well as ln terms of agricultural cropplng practices. Browa EuErophlc Soils (unrt t ) 8. These soils have, ln general, a nedlum to moderately fine texture, a good strucEure, and are easy to work. Permeablllty and moisture retention are favorable. The pH is about neutral and the absorptlon complex shows a APPEIIDIX VI Page 3 high degree of saturation. The organlc tratter content is moderately hlgh. The rrmodal" or "vertic" brorrn eutrophic soils occupy a very llnited percentage of the area lnfllcted by onchocerclasls. Alluvla and Colluvia ln Rlver Valle:s aq4 !4q:Eq4ds (q4!t 2) 9. Based on their properties, these solls need flood protection and drainage for Eheir potentlal to be realLzed. Given the configuration of the valleys (long and narrow), a complete solutlon to the hydrological problems wl11 be expensive; adequate subsoil dralnage, for example, cannot be realized by gravlty, ovlng to high rlver levels at the tlne dralnage ls required. Con- slderatlon of rlce would seem to be advlsable because this crop could stand some floodlng and waterlogglng without too great yleld reductLons. Vertisols (Unlr 3) 10. Because of thelr geographical posltion in flat, depression-like areas, fine textures and poor structures (caused in part by a montorillonite clay nineral), these sotls suffer fron rraterlogging during the rainy season. Approprlate land preparatlon uethods (nechanLzatlon, oxen) as well as a farrning system will have to be developed that rrill lengthen the workable period (ninute sotls). Furthermore, waterlogglng problems will have to be solved by means of approprlate drainage systems. The work done by ICRISAT on the development of tillage technlques and farning systems nay be applicable to the development of vertisols in the proJect area. Ferrallitlc Solls (Unit a ) tl. In general, these soils have good physical properties. The soil profiles are deep and medir.m to moderately flne textures. The structure is stable, the soils are porous and have a favorable moisture retention capacity. The fertillt.y status of these soils ls rather poor, due to their low content of najor nutrients (W, f, K) and the low saturation of the exchange complex. A fertillty program (such as the FAO soll ferttlity progran in Ghana between 1970 and 1974) could raise the productlon levels of these soils. Due to the patchy nature of the soils, this unit ls assr-uned to include about twenty-five percent unsultable land. Ferruginous SoiIs (Unlt 5 ) L2. The ferruginous solls are predominant ln the project area. Ihe profile depth is uostly rather shallow. A rnalnly coarse-textured sandy top- soil commonly is underlaid by a slowly permeable finer texture B horizon and/or an Lron pan. The structure of the topsoll may be unstable, and perme- ability of the subsoil is rnostly low. Laterlte gravel often is found in theprofile. As a resurt the rdater holdlng capaclt.les may be 1ow, which is unfavorable from a cropping point of view, and the sensitivity to erosion appears great. APPENDIX 6 Page 4 13. The shallownesa of the proflle and an lnpcndlng aubaoll poses two soll-hydrologlcal problens. Flret thc topsoll hes a low noisture retentlon capaclty and ls therefore seneltlve to drought. Becauec of the lrregular ralnfall pattern, wlth occaslonal long dry spclle ln the ratny seaaon, the croPs Srolrn on these solls w111 often suffer frm moteture ahortage; and accordlngly yields w111 be reduced. On the other haud, the excees ralnfall ln certaln perlods of the ralny aeaaon oay lead to saterlogglng of the shallow root zone, and thus to lower crop ylelds. 14. Chenlcally, the solle are poor ln the naln plant nutrlents. Also, these solls rrflxrr phosphate and perhaps potaaslr.rn and so proper fertlllzatlon may be exceedlngly expenslve. The humus layer le thln and the organlc Eatter content ig low. Based on locally avallable detalled lnfornatl.on and field trlps, lt ls estinated that sooe thlrty-flve percent of rloeultable soils are lncluded ln thls unlt. Unsultable Lands (Unlt 6) 15. Thls group lncludea eolle that for one reaaon or another are con- sldered as not belng euLtable for agrteultural developnent, t.e. golle with an Lron pan at the surface; solls wlth laterlte gravcl at the surface; rock outcrops; extremely shallow solls on lron pan, etc; solls coutalnLng a hlgh amount of stones; sallne and sodlc solIe. For eone of these areas 't would seem to be advisable to lnvestlgate the poealbllltleo of reforestacjrono Based on sotre avallable detalled lnforoatlon aud field vistte, pcrhape 102 of these solls are sultable ln patchea. 16. Ihe ttreductlon coefflclentsrr applled to the groes hectarage estlmates are outllned below: SollCategory I 2 3 4 5 6 Lt I 2 3 4 5 6 Inpurities Infrastructure 5 s l0 2s 3s 90Ll 10 30 10 l0 r0 20 IE ls estimated that l0Z of thc area of uneultable solls conslste of narglnally eultable patches. = brown eutrophlc eolls = alluvl.a-colluvla = vertieols - ferralatlc solls - ferruginous solle = unsuiEable lands bas-fonde