Morocco - Social Priorities Program : Coordination and Monitoring of Social Programs, and Labor Promotion Project

Document of The World Bank Report No. 15075-MOR STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SOCIAL PRIORITIES PROGRAM (BARANAMAJ AL AOULAOUIYAT AL IJTIMAIYA) COORDINATION AND MONITORING OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS, AND LABOR PROMOTION PROJECT May 9, 1996 Human Resources Division Maghreb and Iran Department Middle East and North Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Dirham (DH) US$1.00 = DH8.3 (as of April 1996) FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 (until 1995) July 1 to June 30 (as of 1996) ABBREVIATIONS BAJ Barnamaj al-Aoulaouaiyat al-Ijtimaiya (Social Priorities Program) CAS Country Assistance Strategy CSSS Comitd de Suivi de la Strategie Sociale (Social Strategy Steering Committee) COCOES Comite de Coordination des Etudes Statistiques (Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Studies) DS Direction de la Statistique (Department of Statistics) ICB International Competitive Bidding LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey MEN Ministere de l'Education Nationale (Ministry of National Education) MEAS Minist&re de l'Emploi et des Affaires Sociales (Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs) MSP Ministre de la Santi Publique (Ministry of Public Health) NCB National Competitive Bidding PMIS Program Management Information System PN Promotion Nationale (National Agency for Labor Promotion) PPS Programme Priorits Sociales (Social Priorities Program) SMAG Salaire Minimum Agricole Garanti (Minimum Guaranteed Wage in Agriculture) SDS Strat6gie de D6veloppement Social SPP Social Priorities Program ZIP Zone d'intervention prioritaire (Priority intervention area) KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SOCIAL PRIORITIES PROGRAM COORDINATION AND MONITORING OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS, AND LABOR PROMOTION PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Project and Loan Summary Borrower: Kingdom of Morocco Implementing The Ministry of Interior (Promotion Nationale) Agencies: The Ministry of Population Poverty: Program of Targeted Interventions Amount: US$28.0 million equivalent Terms: Twenty years, including a five-year grace period, at the IBRD standard variable interest rate Commitment Fee: 0.75% on undisbursed loan balances, beginning 60 days after signing Financing Plan: (US$ million) Foreign Local Total IBRD 12.9 15.1 28.0 Government -- 21.5 21.5 Total 12.9 36.6 49.5 Net Present Value: N\A (cost-effectiveness calculations) Environmental Rating: C Staff Appraisal Report: No. 15075 Map No.: IBRD 27638 Project ID No.: 42414 w BASIC DATA Indicator Measure Date National Wealth GNP per capita (US$) 1040 1993 Population Total population (million) 26,073 1994 Rural population (% of total) 48.6 1994 Population growth rate (%) 2.1 1982-94 Poverty Head-count Index poor (%) 13.1 1990-91 very poor (%) 7.0 1990-91 Poverty line (annual DH per person) very poor (rural) 2,040 1990-91 poor (urban) 2,730 1990-91 Education Adult literacy (% of population, age 15+) Total 45 1991 Female 32 1991 Net school enrollment (%) Primary 58 1991-92 Secondary 28 1992 Health Life expectancy at birth (years) 62 1992 Infant Mortality Rate (per thousand) 62 1995 General malnutrition (%) 15 1992 People per physician (number) 2,760 1995 Married women using contraceptives (%) 42 1995 Employment Minimum wage for nonagricultural sectors (DH per day) 50 1995 Minimum wage for agricultural sector (DH per day) 38 1995 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SOCIAL SECTOR BACKGROUND AND ISSUES ............................................1 A . Econom ic C ontext............................................................................... B . P o verty............................................................................................ C. Social Assistance and Employment Promotion ..............................................2 D . Statistical M onitoring ...........................................................................4 E. Social Policy Coordination .....................................................................5 II. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY AND BANK RESPONSE......................................6 A. Government Strategy............................................................................6 B. Rationale for Bank Involvement ...............................................................7 C. Bank Experience and Lessons Learned.......................................................8 III. T H E PR O JEC T .......................................................................................8 A. The Social Priorities Program .................................................................8 B . Project O bjectives ...............................................................................9 C . Project D escription ..............................................................................9 IV. COSTS, FINANCING AND MANAGEMENT ............................................... 12 A. Summary of Project Costs ................................................................... 12 B . F inancing ...................................................................................... 13 C . Econom ic A nalysis ............................................................................ 14 D. Management and Implementation ........................................................... 16 V. PROJECT BENEFITS AND RISKS............................................................. 23 A . B enefits ......................................................................................... 2 3 B . R isk s............................................................................................. 2 3 C. Stakeholders' Participation................................................................... 24 D . Poverty C ategory .............................................................................. 24 E. Environmental Assessment ................................................................... 25 VI. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................. 25 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission that visited Morocco in June 1995, led by Benoit Millot (MN1HR), and comprising Messrs. Bahjat Achikbache (EMTHR) and Jean Christophe Laederach (MN1HR). Mrs. Dung-Kim Pham (MN1HR) assisted in preparing the project costs and financing tables. Ms. Elizabeth Sherman edited project documents. Peer reviewers are Mr. Alexandre Marc (EC4MS) and Mrs. Dominique Van de Walle (PRDPE). Mr. Jean Francois Dupuy is the lawyer for Morocco, Mrs. Roslyn Hees is MN1HR Division Chief and Mr. Daniel Ritchie is MNl Department Director. ANNEXES 1. Basic Sector Information 2. SPP/BAJ: Organizational Structure 3. Provinces Selected for the Program 4. Selected Project Data 5. Summary Cost Tables 6. Economic Analysis Data 7. Procurement and Disbursement Data 8. Summary of Technical Assistance and Training 9. Project Implementation Monitoring: Key Indicators 10. Selected Information in the Project File MAP Map No. IBRD 27638 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SOCIAL PRIORITIES PROGRAM COORDINATION AND MONITORING OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS, AND LABOR PROMOTION PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT I. SOCIAL SECTOR BACKGROUND AND ISSUES A. Economic Context 1.01 Over the past decade, Morocco has instituted reforms designed to achieve macroeconomic stability and to liberalise the economy. Wide-reaching and comprehensive, the reforms have gradually moved Morocco away from a predominantly state-administered economy towards one that is more market-driven and outward-oriented. Yet, progress achieved on the macroeconomic front remains fragile, as demonstrated by the continued indebtedness, and the deterioration in the fiscal and external accounts which were exarcerbated by the 1995 drought. 1.02 Morocco's growth rate, which averaged about 4% annually during the last decade, fell well below expectations and was too low to absorb the country's growing labor force. Private investment and domestic saving rates remain modest; labor productivity is not increasing; and international competitiveness has recently eroded. The situation has been further exacerbated by the recent drought, but prospects for 1996 are brighter. Despite significant recent progress, performance has also been disappointing in the social sectors. Morocco's indicators in health, education, literacy, and access to safe water continue to lag behind those of economically comparable countries. A fifth of the population still lives in poverty or near-poverty, urban unemployment rates have reached 20%, and rural women are still economically and socially marginalized. 1.03 Morocco's low social performance and its relative economic success are intimately related. For even with constructive political and economic reforms in place, the country cannot reach and sustain higher economic growth rates without a substantial accumulation of human capital. To achieve such a reserve, it must boost its investment in the provision of basic social services. Conversely, without sustained economic growth, it will be extremely difficult to substantially improve employment opportunities and living conditions of the Moroccan population, which already stands at 26 million and is growing apace. B. Poverty 1.04 Data gathered from the 1985 Household Consumption Survey and the 1991 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) showed that the share of Morocco's population living below the poverty line fell from 21 to 13% in those six years, while the GNP per capita rose by about 30% (and presently hovers at around US$1, 100). This performance was achieved during the period of structural adjustment. Adding the number of those whose expenditure levels are just above the poverty line to the number of those who live below it, more than 3.3 million Moroccans are still poor enough to be isolated from the mainstream economy. -2- 1.05 Urban, rural, and regional variations are also striking, and the gap dividing them is deepening. In 1991, 72% of all poor lived in rural areas as compared to 70% six years earlier. Likewise, while a quarter of the population lived in poverty in the Center-North, East, and Center- South regions, the poverty rate was below 5% in coastal areas. In rural areas, the poor are typically either seasonally underemployed wage-earners or small-scale farmers. In urban areas they are mostly self-employed people who work in the informal sector, underpaid (often temporary) wage- earners, or are unemployed. If access to basic social services is taken into account, still more differences between urban and rural areas come to light. 1.06 Along with low pay, unemployment and underemployment are major determinants of poverty. In the early 1990s, the aggregate unemployment rate in urban areas was estimated at 16 to 20%, but among the urban poor the unemployment rate reached 30%. Unemployment rates are much lower in rural areas, but these areas suffer substantial, chronic underemployment. Not surprisingly unemployment is most widespread among those with little or no education, but neither are those with a secondary education immune. Unemployment rates are higher for women overall. 1.07 The growing importance of the informal sector--although a sign of the economy's dynamism and ability to absorb excess labor supply and react to demand--reflects an increase in the reservoir of persons prone to fall below the poverty threshold. The poverty assessment report (World Bank 1994) found a strong link between poverty in economic terms and such social ills as low literacy, education, health, and nutrition levels and high fertility rates. That report, and other studies, also found a strong correlation between income levels and degree of access to basic social services. In light of these findings, the report strongly recommends the rehabilitation of basic social services as a necessary prerequisite for the durable alleviation of poverty. Yet, until recently the various social policies and programs were not strongly coordinated, and the link between this disparate set of sectoral actions and the macroeconomic framework was loose. There was, moreover, no visible political will to address the problem of lagging social sector performance. C. Social Assistance and Employment Promotion 1.08 In Morocco, social security and welfare mechanisms are generally operated by public entities funded off-budget. Morocco presently devotes about 1.7% of its budget and 0.4% of its GDP to social security and welfare services--far less than is allocated in economically comparable countries. Social security, moreover, mainly protects those in the mainstream economy, that is, wage-earners and their dependents. Benefits include family allowances; payments for maternity, sickness, and disability; and pensions. In the private modern sector, nonwage costs linked with the payment of social security charges represent 19% of take-home pay. Contributions from about 2 million workers are managed by four main funds, of which the CNSS (Caisse Nationale de Securiti Sociale) caters to 0.8 million workers in the private sector and the CMR (Caisse Marocaine de Retraite) serves 700,000 government employees. The system does not, however, reach those who are self-employed in the informal sector and in rural areas, temporary workers in the private modern sector, and the unemployed in urban areas. 1.09 The present system, therefore, fails to cover those who need it most--those who do not have a permanent or sufficient source of income, who do not have a secure job or who lose it, who are vulnerable to such external events as drought and price increase, and who suffer such individual economic shocks as sickness, death of the household head, divorce/repudiation or increased numbers of dependents. In such cases, Moroccans generally seek help from traditional support networks. But with migrations and urbanization on the rise, these are weakening. The social -3- assistance mechanisms provided by state institutions are generally confined to food price subsidies, mutual aid, and public works employment programs. A nontargeted price subsidy program is presently in place for sugar, edible oil, and wheat flour, but its overall impact seems regressive, with better-off households and producers drawing more benefits from it than needy consumers. The subsidies also perpetuate market distortion, and there is obviously a case for their further down- scaling. In addition to these food subsidies, Morocco also has in place a national, targeted, school feeding program. 1. 10 Mutual aid is administered by the Entraide Nationale, a public agency operating under the auspices of the Ministre de l'Emploi et des Affaires Sociales (Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, MEAS). Entraide Nationale's mandate is to supply assistance in any form to needy and vulnerable populations and to promote family well-being. A large and complex organization, it has 6,000 employees, 50 regional offices, and runs a network of 980 social centers (centres sociaux 9ducatifs and centres d'education et de travail), which offer a variety of activities to about 500,000 beneficiaries. Entraide Nationale oversees the efforts of 250 private social organizations throughout the country. Yet while the agency's constituency is clearly on the low end of the income distribution curve and its services are mostly targeted to women, only 40% of its centers are located in rural areas. It does not have, moreover, an articulated strategy for coordinating its various activities and establishing priorities among them. As a result, there is no systematic targeting and no mechanism to assess regularly the impact and cost-efficiency of the various activities funded and supervised by the agency. Although Entraide Nationale was not yet ready for a major intervention and in-depth reorganization under the proposed project, there is no doubt that future efforts to strengthen the welfare system in Morocco will have to count on the presence of the agency. 1.11 Labor-intensive public works programs are carried out by the Promotion Nationale (PN), a thirty-four-year-old autonomous agency run as a department of the Ministry of Interior. The Promotion Nationale's mandate is to fight rural underemployment and to improve rural infrastructure. To achieve this two-fold goal, agency-sponsored public works must devote at least 60% of their total budget to labor. Technical ministries are associated with PN projects to guarantee their quality. Promotion Nationale is active in four different fields: 1. Traditional activities, such as agricultural projects (reforestation, small irrigation canals), infrastructure (feeder roads), and equipment (sewerage, water, various constructions), which absorbed, on average, 28% of the agency's job-days from 1987 to 1993; 2. Small lakes and dams (16%); 3. Local community services (35%), including clerical work for local municipalities (chantiers collectivites, recently renamed chantiers d'opportunit occasionnelle), which are the only Promotion Nationale activities sponsored in urban areas; 4. Special program for the Saharan regions (20%), which grew until 1993-94 but has now plateaued (Annex 1). Only the first two types of activities are unambiguously poverty oriented. 1.12 The Promotion Nationale, which usually uses force account procedures, creates about 13 million job-days each year overall, and the positive impact of the traditional activities it sponsors on both employment and the environment is impressive. In 1993, for instance, roughly 1,900 project sites were opened, 6 million job-days were created for traditional activities, and 60,000 kilometers of irrigation canals (seguias) and 3,000 kilometers of feeder-roads were built. On average, each Promotion Nationale site creates 3,300 job-days at an average cost of US$24,000 per site. Unskilled workers--the vast majority of those recruited by the Promotion Nationale--are paid the agricultural minimum wage, or SMAG (currently DH37.6, about US$4 a day), sometimes with a food component. Skilled workers (foremen) are paid 22% above the SMAG. The Promotion Nationale typically recruits rural (usually illiterate) workers during the inactive agricultural period, thereby helping to fill the underemployment gap created by seasonal work stoppages in rural areas. -4- 1.13 The Promotion Nationale has an appropriate administrative structure. It has representatives in each region and is well-administered by a relatively light--although insufficiently trained--staff of 1,180, fifty of whom are high-level administrative or technical professionals, 70 are technicians, and 160 are foremen (conducteurs de chantier). Affiliation with the Ministry of Interior, and the presence of about 50 professional military personnel, have further helped earn the Promotion Nationale the reputation of an efficient agency. Funding for most activities comes from the Promotion Nationale budget, with the line ministries' contribution limited to technical approval, and with local municipalities supervising the work. Small dams and lakes projects are financed out of VAT revenues allocated to municipalities--a procedure that is much more cumbersome than direct budgetary allocation, in that the financing of projects cannot be guaranteed at the outset because of the municipalities' weak financial capacity. But a well-established selection cycle based on a clear set of criteria is in place. Other features of Promotion Nationale activities include the formulation of projects at the local level, screening at the provincial level, and the making of final decisions at the central level. There is as yet no mechanism, however, for assessing the impact of Promotion Nationale activities, and agency procedures generally are not transparent. 1.14 The Promotion Nationale's efficacy as a weapon against poverty, however, is threatened by recent decreases in funding and by the shift away from traditional activities in favor of such activities as the urban community works not specifically aimed at reducing poverty. Although community projects may have the short-term benefit of keeping young people off the streets in urban centers, they generally do not benefit those who need supplementary income to support families. Nor do they contribute to the enhancement of the rural environment, which is necessary if Morocco is to stem migration to the cities. Finally--without boosting their long-term effectiveness with such additional activities as literacy programs--individual Promotion Nationale sites can have only a short-term impact on the potential of individual participants and therefore do not produce durable multiplying effects. D. Statistical Monitoring 1.15 In 1942 Morocco established a public agency responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating economic and social statistical information. In 1975 this Central Statistical Service was upgraded to become the Department of Statistics (Direction de la Statistique, DS). In 1961 a training school for statistical engineers was created to meet the Government's need for skilled statisticians. The country's statistical data collection system is decentralized so that, in principle, data can be gathered and disseminated by any line ministry, but the Department of Statistics remains the core institution of the system. 1.16 In 1968 a Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Studies (Comitg de Coordination des Etudes Statistiques, COCOES) was established to oversee the efforts of different providers of data and to promote relevant socioeconomic studies. The Committee includes representatives from all Ministries and public agencies. It is composed of four subcommittees, which deal with economic statistics, financial statistics, data coordination, and national accounts. Unfortunately, however, the COCOES has not met since 1987, and the Direction de la Statistique has initiated a review of its legal basis with a view to replacing it by a National Council for Statistical Information more suited to the country's current information needs. 1.17 The Department of Statistics, formerly in the Ministry for Economic Incentives, serves as the secretariat of the COCOES and is now part of the Ministry of Population. It is responsible for producing statistical information (including socioeconomic and demographic data, financial and -5- economic surveys and studies, and national accounts), providing services (such as offering technical assistance to other public institutions, conducting surveys and studies for other clients, disseminating statistical information), and coordinating the national statistical information system (including assessing statistical needs; setting up national and regional committees for the preparation of statistical information development plans; monitoring statistical information programs; establishing statistical information standards, methodologies, and norms; and organizing statistical information seminars and conferences for both the public and private sectors). 1.18 In its effort to build an adequate database regarding living conditions in Morocco, the Direction de la Statistique conducted household consumption and expenditure surveys in 1970-71 and 1984-85, and a Living Standards Measurement Survey in 1991. Based on these data, a set of social indicators were published in 1993. Such line ministries as finance, health, and education are also generating current statistics for their respective sectors. But while a wealth of data is currently being produced, users in general--and decision-makers in particular--still suffer from the lack of quick and easy access to the high-quality, timely, relevant data and sound anticipatory analysis needed to assess the impact of development policies and programs on living conditions. 1.19 In addition, as it now stands, decisions regarding which data is to be collected reflect the concerns of the institution responsible for data collection rather than user needs. Given this supply- driven approach, the type and format of the data produced are more suited to socioeconomic accounting than to policy decision-making or the monitoring of results in the field. Therefore, in spite of the major efforts made by the Moroccan authorities, to track and understand changes taking place in society, a sound statistical basis for policy, analysis, and decision-making in the social areas is still largely lacking. In sum, Morocco's statistical information system has considerable capacity to design and implement complex household and economic surveys, which generate valuable and usable results that are issued in quality publications. But publication of results is often delayed, users find access to information difficult, and further analysis is rarely carried out in a timely fashion. E. Social Policy Coordination 1.20 For a long time in Morocco, spending to promote human capital was not considered an investment that would ultimately lead to greater and more sustainable economic growth, and instead, economic growth was perceived as the only engine of social progress. Therefore, social concerns were not a top Government priority, and--despite indisputable sectoral improvement during the 1980s and 1990s--there was no comprehensive, long-term plan for the social welfare of the country. This was reflected by the absence of an operational mechanism to coordinate the action of the various ministries responsible for implementing activities in the social sectors. In particular, during the period spanning between the disparition of the Ministry of Planning (1992) and the creation of the new Ministry of Population (para. 2.02), there was no institutional center to synthetize the needs of a genuine social development and to impulse a coherent, long-term social policy. The Conseil Economique et Social, instituted to be a forum of discussion, has not been activated yet. -6- II. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY AND BANK RESPONSE A. Government Strategy 2.01 Following an era of thorough macroeconomic adjustment and worrisome decline in social conditions throughout the Kingdom, the Government has started to focus on social issues in a more concerted manner. In 1993 it issued the Social Development Strategy (Stratigie de Diveloppement Social pour la Decennie 1990, SDS), which sets forth clear directives aimed at reversing past trends and establishing the framework for a sound social policy. Based on the 1991 Living Standards Measurement Survey, the Government strategy made extending basic social services to the poor and increasing their participation in economically productive activities its highest social goals. Such extended coverage would include access to safe water, sewage facilities, health care, family planning services, nutrition, primary education, literacy programs, and subsidized public housing. But recognizing prevailing budgetary constraints, the strategy stresses the inter- and intra-reallocation of resources and introduction of cost-recovery mechanisms. It also advocates action to promote employment and bolster social protection. Finally, the SDS emphasizes that a strong and appropriate administrative vehicle and reliable statistical monitoring system are required for the implementation of its recommendations. 2.02 The Government gave the first version of the Stratigie de Developpement Social pour la D&cennie 1990 to the Bank in the context of the second adjustment program. Following the appraisal of the Social Priorities Program, the strategy was updated, formally reendorsed by the new Government, and officially conveyed to the Bank [para. 6.01a]. Its internalization throughout the relevant agencies is now underway. Specific sectoral action plans are being developed for the education and health sectors as part of the preparation of the Social Priorities Program. The creation of the Ministry of Population is another signal that the Government is taking social concerns seriously and is adapting its institutions accordingly. This new ministry has responsibilities similar to those of a ministry of planning and is supposed to coordinate actions throughout the social sectors within a unifying framework and based on a medium-term view. Finally, the King's address to the Parliament of Morocco in October 1995 shows that concerns for the social situation now emanate from the highest levels of the power hierarchy. 2.03 Labor-intensive works. The recent increase in Promotion Nationale-sponsored small-scale rural infrastructure and equipment projects signals an intensification of the agency's effort to alleviate the impact on employment of such external shocks as drought and have a positive effect on the environment, which is highly degraded in many rural areas. Both of these benefits, moreover, should help check migration to the cities. The agency's plans for the next two years reflect the Government's will to reduce service activities in urban communities (chantiers d'opportuniti occasionnelle) and to redirect resources back to those traditional activities that have a direct impact on rural basic infrastructure. 2.04 Monitoring. The SDS calls for setting up monitoring mechanisms to ensure consistency between actual activities and fundamental SDS aims, to determine the social impact of programs and activities undertaken for the benefit of the underprivileged, and--if need be--to recommend that resources and activities be redirected to improve their efficacy. With its censuses and various household, employment, and industry surveys, the Government has shown that it takes seriously the task of building a reliable body of data. The collaboration of the Direction de la Statistique in conducting the Living Standards Measurement Survey, moreover, strengthened its data-collection expertise. The affiliation of the Direction de la Statistique with the recently created Ministry of Population--whose mandate is to keep its finger on the pulse of the people's needs and coordinate a coherent response to those needs--will further help bring the issue of monitoring to center stage. 2.05 Policy coordination. While the adoption of the Strat6gie de Diveloppement Social pour la D9cennie 1990 is clearly a critical first step towards the coordination of social policies and the linkage of the latter with the macroeconomic framework, its implementation will need to be monitored by a high-level, committed entity. The Social Strategy Steering Committee (Comitg de Suivi de la Strat6gie Sociale, CSSS)-- was created by the Prime Minister in 1994 for this purpose. However, it is only recently that the CSSS has started meeting, and it still has to prove itself as an effective actor in the formulation of the country's social policy. The revitalization of the Conseil Economique et Social, if concretized, would also contribute to the opening of a real dialogue between the representatives of various constituencies, and to bring closer social and economic issues. B. Rationale for Bank Involvement 2.06 The severe state of degradation of Morocco's social sectors underscores the urgent need for intensive, durable action. Bank support for such action is called for both by the present climate of support in the Government and by the Bank's own Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), currently under preparation, which puts investing in people as its first priority. Bank support for the social sectors would also accord with its parallel efforts to strengthen macroeconomic performance and encourage growth through private investment. Other donors have viewed the goals of the Strat6gie de Dgveloppement Social pour la D9cennie 1990 (based on the Living Standards Measurement Survey and confirmed by the World Bank poverty assessment) as a rallying point, and support for SDS policies is fully in line with the Bank's strategy of poverty alleviation and Morocco's overall plan to develop its human resources. Since the Bank has already financed several projects in Morocco's social sectors--especially in health and education--the proposed program would be an extension of earlier Bank involvement. The Country Economic Memorandum (World Bank 1995a) provides a solid body of evidence that programs whose aim is to improve Morocco's human capital base and to increase labor efficiency and productivity warrant reinforcement of present Bank support. Finally, a recent study of the region's present situation and long-term prospects (World Bank 1995b) shows that Morocco, along with its neighbors, is experiencing high unemployment and now feels an especially urgent need for bold programs aiming for both economic growth and poverty alleviation. The Bank's role in promoting the Government's social strategy, and marshaling international and bilateral support for social programs will be critical if Morocco is to succeed in the fight it is waging against poverty, both in terms of equity and of economic growth. 2.07 Support for the provision and organization of basic social services and of more effective social safety net instruments would constitute the Bank's first contribution to the SDS. Bank assistance to strengthen the selected activities of the Promotion Nationale in rural areas would have a direct impact on those who need help most--the transient poor. A more aggressive use of the Promotion Nationale in rural areas is needed, since it is one of the few instruments available to help compensate workers rapidly for the seasonal loss of income and underemployment characteristic of these areas. An expansion of PN projects would also help to compound the benefits expected from social service interventions provided under other parts of the program. 2.08 High-quality statistical monitoring is necessary to the success of any program to alleviate poverty. A good information system on incomes, expenditures, access to basic social services, and other poverty indicators would allow the Government to target its resources and energy where the -8- needs are greatest and as new areas of social exclusion emerge. The continuous tracking of carefully selected, multisectoral indicators of development would allow the Government to determine the effects of its social policy, and--if necessary--to reorient its actions. Statistical monitoring therefore is an indispensable ingredient of the Government's social development strategy and equally deserving of Bank support. Bank assistance in this field, furthermore, would be a continuation of its involvement in the first Living Standards Measurement Survey and would help reinforce earlier capacity-building efforts and make them sustainable. Finally, Bank support to coordination mechanisms would be a logical complement to other forms of assistance and would increase the chances of success of the various social programs designed to implement the SDS, while raising public awareness of social issues and facilitating the dialogue between Moroccan officials and the donors'community. C. Bank Expeience and Lessons Learned 2.09 In the past, the Bank has supported several operations in Morocco's social sectors, and three such projects are currently being implemented: the Rural Primary Education Project (Loan 3026-MOR, US$83 million; 1989-96); the Rural Basic Education Development Project (Loan 3295- MOR, US$145 million; 1991-97); and the Health Sector Investment Project (Loan 3171-MOR, US$ 104 million, 1990-96). The main general lessons to be drawn from these operations are as follows: (a) Reforms in the social sectors should not be overly ambitious because of their immense impact on large groups and the political risks attached to them. (b) A good management information system and simple and transparent management, procurement, and disbursement procedures must be in place for all Bank-financed activities. Such measures are also meant to offset cumbersome local financing circuits, which tend to delay execution and slow down disbursements, especially for decentralized project activities. A study is currently being conducted by the Government to identify precisely the bottlenecks and the sources of delays. (c) To ensure full acceptance of the project, it is critical to seek the early involvement of all constituents--in particular, employees of line ministries at the provincial and local level who will play a crucial role during project implementation. It is equally important to involve other government constituencies (such as the Ministry of Finance) and other donors early enough in the process to guarantee successful future collaboration. (d) Finally, realistic budgetary envelopes have to be projected (and committed) to ensure the sustainability of sectoral programs and actions. 2.10 From its many social sector projects and two adjustment programs, Morocco has acquired good experience in managing Bank-financed projects, whether sectoral or macroeconomic. The proposed project would build on a base of experience, and qualified departmental units would be designated to execute various components within the framework of the SPP/BAJ. Furthermore, Morocco's strong involvement in recent sector work (the 1991 LSMS, the Bank's poverty assessment, two studies in the education sector, the current Maghreb study on health priorities, etc.) has shown that local expertise is available. The proposed program would therefore be a natural continuation of this involvement. III. THE PROJECT A. The Social Priorities Program 3.01 The proposed project is part of the Social Priorities Program I (SPP I; Barnamaj al- Aoualaouiyat al-Ijtimaiya, or BAJ I, in Arabic; Programme Priorit9s Sociales, or PPS, in French), -9- initiated to assist the Government in the implementation of its strategy to increase the poor's access to basic social services, enhance basic social protections, and create new opportunities for the unemployed to participate in economically productive activities. The program would also bolster Government awareness of poverty-related and social issues and catalyze efforts to rehabilitate Morocco's social sectors. While the SPP would entail a series of consecutive programs following one another at a rapid pace, SPP/BAJ I was conceived as a set of three complementary projects to be negotiated and implemented simultaneously (Annex 2). All three share the same broad objectives, were developed within the same framework, and would be implemented independently within the same geographical area. 3.02 By using a multisectoral approach--which is expected to yield more significant and durable results than serial, strictly sectoral projects--this tripartite program would help to guarantee flexibility in execution and should therefore be a more efficient way to channel energies and resources. The SPP/BAJ would target Morocco's thirteen poorest and least urbanized provinces, where 27% of the total population, or 7.1 million people, currently live (provinces and selection criteria are listed in Annex 3). By involving provincial authorities in project monitoring, moreover, the SPP/BAJ should achieve the integration needed to reinforce its impact. The objectives of the three projects are: (a) to increase the quality and quantity of basic education while at the same time making the education system more efficient and equitable; (b) to improve access to basic health services and improve their quality while bolstering performance and managerial capacities within the health care system; (c) to enhance basic rural infrastructure through labor-intensive techniques; and (d) to establish a permanent apparatus for data collection and analysis that would strengthen the Government's ability to galvanize support for SDS activities and monitor their impact. B. Project Objectives 3.03 The specific objectives of the third project proposed under the SPP/BAJ are (a) to improve basic infrastructure and generate income transfers in rural communities--in which education and health services would be reinforced by the other two sister projects--through the use of labor- intensive techniques; (b) to set up a body that would have the permanent capacity to monitor and analyze the socioeconomic standards of living of the population; and (c) to raise public and political awareness of social issues, their relation to economic growth, and the remedial action required. As proposed, therefore, the third project would be a linch-pin in the SPP/BAJs overall architecture. In addition to providing specific actions in the targeted rural areas (Zones d'intervention prioritaire -- ZIPs) of the thirteen selected provinces, it would amplify the impact of the other two projects proposed under the SPP/BAJ program. C. Project Description 3.04 The proposed project would be implemented over a five-year period, plus one year to complete disbursements, at a total cost of US$49.5 million equivalent, and would include the following components: (i) reinforcing PN activities designed to alleviate poverty; (ii) creating the institutional and technical tools needed to monitor and analyze social conditions and the programs whose aim is to improve these conditions; and (iii) helping a central Government body to coordinate the various actions undertaken under the SPP and national social development strategy and to provide feedback to decisionmakers. - 10 - Employment promotion 3.05 The first component of the proposed project (US$39.8 million) would entail the selective reinforcement of labor-intensive works undertaken by the Promotion Nationale. Pursuing a two- fold objective, the agency would both (i) create temporary employment in specific, carefully selected sites in rural areas (ZIPs) thus distributing transfer incomes to poor households and increasing monetization in those areas, and (ii) contributing to build, maintain, and equip basic infrastructure for agriculture (irrigation canals) and rural communities (dirt roads, wells, latrines). These works would complement the education and health facilities to be built--in many cases in association with the PN--under the other two sister SPP/BAJ projects, and, moreover, the improvement of local infrastructure would boost demand for basic education and health services to be provided under the other two SPP/BAJ projects. Works to be financed by the third project would be undertaken only in the priority zones (ZIPs) already selected for SPP/BAJ education and health interventions. All works under the third project would fall into the category of traditional Promotion Nationale activities and therefore under that agency's initial mandate to provide both employment and basic facilities to deprived rural areas. The proposed third SPP/BAJ project would support activities in the areas of rural infrastructure, literacy, and institutional capacity building. 3.06 Rural infrastructure. Small-scale facilities and infrastructure would be constructed at selected sites in the target provinces. The proposed project would also finance construction materials for civil works, thereby supplementing the inputs directly financed by the municipalities and the labor supported by the PN. The list of proposed sites and works was established during project preparation on the basis of priorities established by the municipalities and revised by the PN's central office. The PN is willing to reorient its activities toward impoverished rural areas and has agreed at negotiations on a schedule to reduce the part of its overall budget allocated to chantiers d'opportunite occasionnelle (mostly made up of clerical work in urban communities) from its current level down to 20% by December 31, 2000 [para. 6.03a(i)]. 3.07 Literacy programs. By coordinating pilot literacy campaigns with the activities of the PN (when their size and duration make it possible), the proposed project would take advantage of the PN's concentration of unskilled and largely illiterate workers and would link skills-acquisition with the concrete goals of a construction project. The project would also finance limited technical training to help foremen adapt site organization for the provision of literacy programs. The experiment of bringing such programs to workers on-site would be carried out in cooperation with the SPP/BAJ Basic Education Project. 3.08 Institutional capacity building. The project would strengthen the institutional capacity of the PN at the central and provincial levels by providing technical assistance, training, and equipment to facilitate the introduction of the Program Management Information System (PMIS) and other monitoring systems, which would be established by the SPP/BAJ program coordination unit, or Secretariat, already in place, in order to bring more transparency to agency procedures. Government's commitment to the institution of the PMIS and monitoring systems was made during negotiations [paras. 4.22, 4.24 and 6.03c(i)]. The agency would also monitor the impact of its activities, making systematic use of beneficiary assessments (two assessments during project's life) to adjust the project's targeting criteria [paras. 4.12 and 6.03d(ii)]. Statistical monitoring 3.09 The second component of the proposed project (US$4.4 million) would consist of two major, complementary subcomponents--the establishment of an Observatory for Monitoring Living - I1 - Conditions and the carrying out of a second Household Living Standards Measurement Study--both under the auspices of the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Population. 3.10 The Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions. As proposed, the Observatory would consist of a permanent analytical unit in charge of tracking household living conditions and analyzing the effects of social policy measures on the population's well-being. The Observatory would be given a mandate to monitor the impact of the SDS and to propose corrective action. The Observatory would also be permitted to take over specific tasks on a contractual basis. The status, role, and staffing of the Observatory and its relationship to other Government institutions would be set by ministerial decision, after consultation of potential users' views during a workshop to be organized by the DS (Annex 4). The Observatory was officially established in the Ministry of Population, as a condition of Board presentation [para. 6.04a]. The mid-term project review would assess the Observatory's efficiency, the adequacy of its institutional framework, its work program and staffing. It would also consider whether or not the Observatory should remain a division of the Department of Statistics or should be given more administrative and financial autonomy [paras. 4.37 and 6.03d(i)]. 3.11 The project would help to launch and finance the Observatory by: (a) recruiting local and international consultants with the skill-mix needed to help carry out the studies and analyses scheduled under the Observatory's work program; (b) providing training locally and abroad for both central and provincial Observatory staff in the area of socioeconomic analysis; (c) conducting training and awareness seminars and dissemination workshops for users of data, both public and private; (d) establishing, upgrading, and managing a separate statistical database on Moroccan living conditions as a subset of the database currently maintained by the Department of Statistics; and (e) equipping the Observatory's central office with necessary technical documentation, computing capabilities, information dissemination, studies, office furniture, supplies, and vehicles. 3.12 The Household Living Standards Measurement Study. The proposed second LSMS would be undertaken at the outset of the project (if possible during the second half of 1996), thus contributing to the constitution of a set of baseline indicators, to be used for the purpose of program evaluation. The survey would be undertaken by the Department of Statistics as a follow-up to the 1990-91 LSMS. It would help understand the changes occurred in the standards of living of the population since 1990, and would constitute a baseline against which the project impact would be measured. Given its national scope, it would ensure that control groups in the rest of the country are monitored as well. The survey would collect the necessary data to establish key socioeconomic indicators needed for the planning, monitoring, and analysis of economic and social policies and programs. Such data would include information about the impact of Government policy on household living standards (such as household consumption expenditures, poverty and nutritional profiles, and the degree of access to and quality of basic social services). Its contents and scope have been agreed upon during negotiations [para. 6.03a(ii)]. The project would contribute to the preparation, implementation, and analysis of the second LSMS survey and would finance: (a) the recruitment of local and international consultants with expertise in survey design and methodologies, sampling, data management, and analysis; (b) field-work costs (including support for temporary field teams, publicity, survey equipment, transportation, household listing, regional supervision, and quality control); (c) data entry and processing and the purchase of computers, printers, and supplies for regional mobile teams; (d) the training of local staff in the design and analysis of complex household surveys; and (e) the publication and dissemination of survey results and studies. - 12 - Strategy implementation and program coordination 3.13 The last component (US$5.2 million) of the proposed third SPP/BAJ project would support a small program coordination unit, or Secretariat, whose role would be: (a) to monitor the impact of the three SPP/BAJ projects; (b) to set up the Program Management Information System (PMIS) and a Geographical Information System; (c) to coordinate and synchronize the actions recommended under the SDS; (d) to keep the CSSS informed about the pace of implementation; (e) to prepare any documentation or analysis the CSSS or Government might need in order to monitor, readjust, and correct the country's social development strategy; and (f) to mobilize internal and external constituencies to work together toward the goals of the SDS and to channel to it the necessary resources. The Secretariat is already informally in place under the auspices of the new Ministry of Population, which has received the mandate to supervise the preparation and implementation of the SPP/BAJ, and to assist the CSSS [para. 6.01c]. It was established to coordinate the various SPP/BAJ projects now being prepared as well as other SDS projects and programs. Terms of reference and staffing for the Secretariat were agreed upon during negotiations [para. 6.03c(ii)], and its formal establishment (including provision for its staffing) is a condition of Board presentation [para. 6.04b]. The Secretarial would benefit from support from the project for: (a) Institutional strengthening (including supplying computer equipment, training both local and central staff, organizing overseas study tours, and supplying technical assistance) to help make the Secretariat more effective in performing its tasks for the CSSS and in serving as the liaison between the CSSS and the sectoral ministries implementing SDS action plans. This subcomponent would also help the Secretariat to learn (and later disseminate) the techniques required for medium-term programming (the Secretariat's mandate is detailed in paras. 4.20-4.24). (b) A study fund to be used to complete or subcontract out (in particular, to the Observatory) the operational studies and monitoring household surveys needed to improve SDS program targeting. In particular, a study would be carried-out at the end of the program in order to assess its impact on its primary beneficiaries, in the selected provinces. A geographic program management and information system would be established for the use of the five ministries involved in the SPP/BAJ [paras. 4.22 and 4.24] to monitor the program's impact. The use of systematic participatory assessment methods would have the added advantage of involving beneficiaries at the provincial and local levels while ensuring that both project and program indicators are being updated in a timely manner [paras. 3.08, 4.12, and 6.03d(ii). (c) Local and foreign specialized services in the areas of information, education, and communication to assist the Secretariat in sensitizing national and international constituencies, from the top down to the local level, and in mobilizing their support for the SDS. IV. COSTS, FINANCING, AND MANAGEMENT A. Summary of Project Costs 4.01 Total costs of the three projects which, together, constitute the SPP/BAJ are estimated at US$266.0 million. Total costs of the third project in the SPP/BAJ are estimated at US$49.5 million - 13 - equivalent, including US$9.3 million for contingencies (19%) and US$7.2 million for taxes (15%). The foreign exchange component is equivalent to US$12.9 million, or 30% of total project costs excluding taxes. A summary of the proposed project's costs appears in Table 4.1. (See also Annex 5.) 4.02 Contingency allowances. Project costs include a contingency allowance (for unforeseen physical deviations) equal to US$3.8 million, or 9% of total project cost excluding taxes. Price contingencies between negotiations and project completion are estimated at US$5.5 million, or 13% of total project costs excluding taxes. Estimations were based on annual rates of increase of 5% per year for local costs and 2.6% per year for foreign costs. Table 4.1. Project cost summary by component (DH million) (US$ million) Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Component Promotion Nationale 197.0 67.6 264.7 23.7 8.1 31.9 Statistical monitoring 20.1 11.4 31.5 2.4 1.4 3.8 Strategy implementation 25.6 12.0 37.6 3.1 1.4 4.5 TOTAL BASE COSTS 242.7 91.0 333.7 29.2 11.0 40.2 Physical 22.8 8.5 31.4 2.7 1.0 3.8 Price 38.5 7.2 45.7 4.6 0.9 5.5 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 304.0 106.7 410.7 36.6 12.9 49.6 * Numbers rounded off to nearest decimal, may not add up to totals shown. 4.03 Foreign exchange component. The foreign exchange component of costs (excluding taxes) of various services provided under the project is estimated as follows: construction (25%); pedagogical material (35%); furniture (25%); equipment, vehicles, computers (70%); foreign specialists and training abroad (90%); locally recruited specialists, local training and seminars (10%). The resulting total foreign exchange component is estimated at US$12.9 million. 4.04 Customs duties and taxes. On average, 20% of the cost of directly imported goods and goods procured locally is made up of import duties and taxes. Indirect taxes on civil works are estimated at 15%. B. Financing 4.05 Financing for the project would consist of a Bank loan of US$28.0 million equivalent, or 66% of total project costs excluding taxes, and a Government contribution of US$14.3 million equivalent, plus US$7.2 million for taxes. (See Table 4.2). The Bank loan would cover 100% of foreign expenditures and 51 % of local expenditures, net of taxes. The Government would finance the balance of local costs and taxes and entirely finance operating costs associated with the implementation, administration, and supervision of the project (including the cost of staff salaries and architectural and engineering services). During negotiations, assurances were given that the Government take all necessary measures to ensure that adequate and timely financial arrangements were in place at all times for the continued and successful operation of the project, including provisions for counterpart funds and the establishment of individual budget lines for the project starting in fiscal year 1996/97 [para. 6.03b(i)]. During negotiations, retroactive financing up to 10% of the loan amount was agreed upon [para. 6.03b(ii)]. 4.06 Several UN agencies--especially UNDP, UNFPA and UNICEF--have shown interest in the SPP/BAJ and in particular in the Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions and the Secretariat to coordinate the three projects. UNDP has worked closely with Morocco and the Bank in the preparation - 14 - of the project and particularly contributed to the organization of a workshop on monitoring systems. While the differing Moroccan Government, UN agencies, and Bank project cycles made it impossible to reach a formal cofinancing arrangement, it is likely that the proposed project would benefit from future UN support. Table 4.2. Project Financing Plan (US$ million) Funding Promotion Nationale (PN); Ministry of Total % of Total Project Source Ministry of Interior Population Costs excluding taxes IBRD 22.3 5.7 28.0 66 Government 11.5 2.8 14.2 34 taxes 6.0 1.2 7.2 - Total 39.8 9.7 49.5 - C. Economic Analysis 4.07 The justification for the SPP/BAJ overall and for Bank support of this project in particular lies in their key importance for achieving CAS objectives (paras. 2.7 to 2.9). Yet each component of this project also warrants separate consideration for its particular economic and social goals. Comparing costs and alternatives 4.08 Promotion Nationale. There are few reliable or cost-effective existing alternatives in Morocco to the PN public works program for generating income and improving community infrastructure in remote areas. Using capital-intensive techniques to build and maintain local infrastructure is neither socially desirable (since it would miss the employment-generating target) nor technically feasible (since private firms are not interested in immobilizing their equipment in areas difficult of access for works of limited scale). Nor is there a readily alternative to the PN, since no private firms can match its organizational and outreach capacity, which allows it to run even remote sites efficiently. Finally, the PN's well-monitored labor-intensive works, which pay workers at the SMAG, are the most cost-effective way to improve rural infrastructure and reduce poverty (the average cost to create one job-day is about US$7). Without this project targeted to the poorest provinces, moreover, opportunities to generate income would decline even more in Morocco, and infrastructure would become even further degraded, thereby reducing the efficacy of the two sister SPP/BAJ efforts (especially the school construction component of the education project), aggravating rural poverty, and fueling the rural migration to already saturated coastal cities. 4.09 Because this operation has a double objective --enhancement of the local environment and direct transfers, any cost-benefit analysis would have to separate out the two components of its output--that is, the direct effect on incomes and on infrastructure. Yet such an approach would disguise the fact that the two components are fully complementary. Moreover, a cost-benefit analysis is not possible for the first component, because the rural areas in Morocco offer the unskilled workers recruited by the PN no alternative sources of income, so that there is no base from which to estimate project-related benefits in terms of wages. Regarding the second component, any comparison of the unit costs for PN works with those for works conducted by - 15 - private firms in accordance with national standards shows that the PN is the more cost-effective alternative--even taking into account the fixed costs of the agency. 4.10 Potential project beneficiaries belong to two (not mutually exclusive) groups--unskilled rural workers, who would be paid for their participation, and the users of the facilities the project would open or maintain. The first group would represent about 30,000 individuals, whose households altogether account for about 160,000 persons, while the served population can be estimated at about 1.2 million persons overall (Annex 6 provides details broken down by type of work). 4.11 There are few risks associated with the works proposed for this component, which entails only activities already routinely undertaken by the PN and involves no technical or institutional change. The high degree of local participation in the identification, preparation, execution, and assessment of PN activities and the close contact of the provincial governors and PN provincial representatives with local elected representatives are the best possible insurance for the success of the operation. 4.12 During the project identification phase, local populations were consulted regarding their needs, and their input would be used to guide the selection of works to be performed by the PN under the proposed project. To reinforce this participatory approach and allow for feedback from the populations once the proposed SPP/BAJ projects are in operation, the PN would actively participate in participatory assessments, which would be initiated at the program level by the Secretariat [paras. 3.13b and 6.03d(ii)]. 4. 13 Statistical monitoring. To obtain the information needed to adapt and optimize policies regularly, there is no real alternative to the household survey based on a nationwide, statistically representative sample of households (such as the LSMS). Less comprehensive and shorter surveys, while less expensive, do not accurately capture the household behavior key for the adjustment of poverty alleviation programs and for predicting the impact of economic measures on various social and income groups. The base cost of US$2. 1 million of the projected survey would be in the upper bracket for such surveys, which range from US$0.2 to US$3.0 million (World Bank 1995c), mostly because of the high local staff travel allowances needed to obtain reliable and comprehensive data. 4. 14 Strategy implementation and program coordination. A lightly staffed administrative unit, the Secrtariat, would coordinate the numerous and complex projects and programs related to the SDS and would therefore be a prerequisite for successful SPP/BAJ implementation. Such a unit is located in the multisectoral Ministry of Population, which has the advantage of being under the direct control of the Prime Minister. Its actual cost represents normal transaction costs (which would amount to about US$0.1 million per year). a small proportion of the overall SPP/BAJ budget. Incremental recurrent costs 4.15 Since no new permanent staff or equipment (with the exception of limited computer equipment) would be needed for the employment promotion component, no incremental costs are associated with this component. The PN's budget would have to be increased substantially (para. 4.17), however, for it to carry out its extended mandate. 4.16 The Observatory would be staffed by redeploying staff already in place in the Department of Statistics and would therefore entail no new additional costs. The same holds true for the Secretariat. Other incremental recurrent costs for the statistical monitoring and program - 16 - coordination components of the program include operating costs for the new equipment and vehicles (to be used initially for the LSMS) and training and dissemination activities (to be established as part of the Observatory's routine tasks). Together these costs represent about US$0.3 million annually--that is, less than 2% of the total budget of the Ministry of Population. Cost recovery and sustainability 4.17 With the supplementary budget supplied by the project, the thirteen targeted provinces--which contain 43% of Morocco's rural population--would receive about 47% of the Promotion Nationale's total budget for "traditional activities". The project would not include cost- recovery mechanisms, however, for any of the infrastructure, facilities, or equipment it would provide, which would be used free of charge until the discrepancy between living conditions and real income between the urban and rural zones begins to close. The lack of cost-recovery mechanisms would mean that the Promotion Nationale's additional annual budgetary allocation of about US$8 million for these provinces would have to be centrally supported for at least five years following the completion of the project. But using these supplementary funds to target the country's poorest citizens should help offset any ill-effects should food subsidies be reduced, and this benefit would help gain support for the proposed project both from the Government and from other donors. 4.18 Because of the statistical monitoring component's minimal incremental costs and the fact that its functions would be of the kind any modern state would need, it is likely that the activities of the Observatory--whatever its institutional status--would continue after the project's life. In addition, the Observatory would be allowed to offer services on a contractual basis to generate revenue. Since the usual periodicity of a living standards survey is five years, the need to update household data would justify a third survey immediately after the project's close. 4.19 The low-cost, lightly staffed Secretariat put in place for the purpose of implementing the SDS and coordinating the program would not necessarily survive under the same form, and with the same status, after the project. There would, therefore, be no need to guarantee long-term financing for it at this stage. D. Management and Implementation Program implementation 4.20 The national Social Development Strategy (SDS) and the SPP/BAJ would be monitored by a steering committee made up of all concerned ministers. Such a committee, the Comite de Suivi de la Strategie Sociale (CSSS), already exists; it is assisted by a Secretariat, which is housed in the Ministry of Population's Department of Planning, and is already in place. The Secretariat would be responsible for monitoring the objectives of the SPP/BAJ and would also be the liaison between technical ministries, the CSSS, and the donor community (Annex 2). 4.21 To simplify implementation and avoid the creation of an overall project implementation and coordination unit, program activities would be implemented under three distinct projects and financed by three distinct loans. The first loan (for the Basic Education Project) would comprise activities to be implemented by the Ministries of Education, Employment and Social Affairs, and by local communities (construction of primary school facilities). The second loan (for the Basic Health Project) would comprise the activities to be implemented by the Ministry of Public Health. The third loan, for the proposed Coordination and Monitoring of Social Programs and Labor Promotion Project, would - 17- comprise the activities to be implemented by the Ministries of Interior (Promotion Nationale) and Population. 4.22 The multiple activities included under the SPP/BAJ will require the careful programming and coordination of inputs from the various implementation agencies at the central, provincial and community levels. The individual impact of the three projects, too, could only be measured if implementation were sufficiently well-coordinated for each to build on the efforts of the others. To ensure that SPP/BAJ activities were implemented in a coordinated manner, both at the grass-roots level and in the central ministries, the Government has committed itself to the setting up of an integrated Program Management Information System (PMIS) by the Secrtariat, and to the implementation of the PMIS by the line ministries and the PN. The staff needed to run the PMIS in the Secretariat and in the PN should be in place in time so that the PMIS could be launched no later than December 31, 1997 [paras. 3.08 and 6.03c(i)]. The data input would be performed by the implementation staff at the provincial level and at the departmental and division levels in the ministries. Proiect Implementation 4.23 Project activities would be implemented by the Promotion Nationale (Ministry of Interior) for the employment promotion component and the Department of Statistics (Ministry of Population) for the statistical monitoring component. Neither agency has prior experience with the implementation of IBRD projects. The Govermnent is presently conducting a study on the country-wide, generic implementation issue of the slow payment of invoices to suppliers. The Government has ensured that an action plan --based on the results of the study-- to improve the management of the proposed project, be presented to the Bank for discussions before March 31, 1997, and that implementation of the recommendations be launched no later than October 31, 1997 [para 6.03c(iii)]. A project implementation volume has been prepared, which will be used as a reference during the project's execution. The PMIS would also help project staff to prepare annual implementation targets and bid documents well in advance of budgetary allocations. The Secretariat would ensure that all activities were implemented in accordance with program objectives and would be responsible for implementing the SPP/BAJ Program Management Information System (PMIS) on a geographical basis. Specifically, the implementation arrangements would be as follows: 4.24 Program Management Information System (PMIS). The project would include the setting up of a PMIS. The Secrtariat would have the overall responsibility for ensuring that a performing PMIS tool was in place and being used adequately by all implementation agencies concerned. The responsibilities for administering the PMIS would be divided as follows: (a) Provincial level. Before December 31, 1996, one SPP/BAJ focal point would be appointed in each province to coordinate and monitor the implementation of all of the SPP/BAJ activities delegated by the various line ministries and to ensure that the PMIS data and information was kept up to date [para. 6.03c(iv)]. The various provincial delegates would provide the provincial SPP/BAJ focal point with all pertinent information about project activities. The provincial focal point would ensure that the data was entered into the system and would--with the assistance of this tool--prepare the annual provincial implementation program. The PMIS would generate implementation progress reports and reports on various indicators and financial benchmarks. The PMIS would be designed on a geographical basis, The PMIS would be designed in such a manner as to allow for the gradual expansion of the system to include other data required by the Governor or other users. The Secrtariat would be responsible for convening a meeting of all SPP/BAJ coordinators (education, literacy, health, PN, Statistics) and all focal points (from the 13 provinces) once a year, to review coordination - 18 - mechanisms, to take stock of the progresses and to seek solutions to emerging problems [para. 6.03c(iv)] (b) Ministry department and division level. Each department involved with the SPP/BAJ would be responsible for managing the implementation of its respective project activities using the PMIS system. To that end, each concerned department would appoint a staff-member to manage the information derived from the PMIS system. 4.25 Promotion Nationale (PN). The PN would implement its activities through the award of very small contracts (NCB) or by force account. Because disbursement would be based on proof of services and because procurement would follow NCB, the PN would not need to know specific Bank procurement and disbursement procedures. Although the PN has a well-trained and highly motivated staff, its implementation record is mixed. This is partially due to the complexity of administering thousands of small-scale building sites spread throughout the country's rural areas. The use of a PMIS on a geographical basis would contribute to overcome this difficulty. The PN would also appoint a PN/BAJ project coordinator by December 31, 1996 [para. 6.03c(iv)]. Assisted by at least two project management specialists, this project coordinator would prepare the annual PN implementation program, coordinate the program with individual project coordinators of the other two SPP/BAJ loans, and monitor the implementation of PN activities. The two management specialists would ensure that the PN data was adequately entered into the PMIS at both the provincial and central levels. 4.26 Department of Statistics. Implementation of this component would require activities in which the Department of Statistics staff are already well grounded. Procurement would be limited to a small number of computers and individual consultants, to the training of a limited number of staff and to the means and staff required to complete the LSMS. Although the component's objective is important, its procurement and implementation requirements would be relatively simple. Although the Department of Statistics does not have previous experience with Bank procedures, for instance, over the years it has developed considerable expertise in the procurement of computers and related equipment. The Secretariat would ensure that the Ministries of Education and Health, which have a good know-how of Bank procedures and are also involved in the SPP/BAJ, would assist the Department of Statistics with specific procurement and other Bank procedures. The Department of Statistics would be responsible for ensuring that the data and information pertinent to the implementation and monitoring of the Observatory component was entered into the PMIS. Procurement 4.27 All goods and services to be financed by the loan would be procured in accordance with the Bank's guidelines. For ICB procedures, the Government would use the Bank standard bidding documents, available in French at the time of project negotiations (Marches de travaux--Tadle Moyenne and Marches de Fournitures). Procurement of goods and services would be undertaken by the concerned line ministries at the central level, by provincial representatives delegated by the line ministries, and by the communities themselves. NCB procedures at these three levels have been reviewed by the Bank. The procedures agreed upon are in conformity with general Bank procurement guidelines with respect to economy, efficiency, equal opportunity to all eligible bidders, development of local industry, and transparency (Table 4.3 below summarizes the procurement arrangements for goods and services). - 19 - Table 4.3. Procurement arrangements (total, including contingencies in US$ million equivalent) Procurement Method Goods and Services ICB NCB Other NBF Total Component Construction - 7.9 31.5 - 39.4 - (4.3) (18.0) - (22.3) Equipment 1.2 0.7 0.4 - 2.3 (1.0) (0.4) (0.2) (1.6) Technical assistance - - 4.2 - 4.2 (3.4) (3.4) Training - - 0.9 - 0.9 (0.7) (0.7) Operating costs - - 2.7 2.7 Total financed costs 1.2 8.6 37.0 2.7 49.5 IBRD financing (1.0) (4.7) (22.3) - (28.0) Figures in parentheses represent amounts to be financed by the loan. (a) works undertaken by the PN as described in para. 3.05 4.28 Civil works. The proposed project would include the construction and rehabilitation of more than 6,000 facilities (including housing, water fountains, village dirt roads, irrigation canals, reforestation, and rural markets). Works contracts would be small in value (US$600- 100,000 equivalent per facility) and distributed over a large rural area. As demonstrated under previous and ongoing loans, such contracts do not normally attract foreign firms. To achieve the social goals as described under paras 4.08 to 4.12, in particular to create employment in the selected rural areas, it is desirable to call for participation from local communities by employing labor intensive technologies. The PN, as a department of the Ministry of Interior, implements small-scale activities through force account or through material-plus-labor contracts. As such, the PN is best suited to help achieve some of the goals of this program. Under the proposed project, the PN would procure building materials and tools following NCB, and hire local labor at SMAG wages, (about US$7 per day). PN staff presently responsible for procurement would handle all transactions involving building materials for the project (NCB). The Secrtariat would be responsible for ensuring that the procurement know-how and documentation in other concerned ministries--in particular the Ministry of National Education and the Ministry of Public Health--were made available to the PN. Civil works contracts of less than US$20,000, up to an aggregate of US$500,000 equivalent, for the remodeling of small facilities in remote areas may be carried out by force account with the Bank's prior approval. 4.29 Goods. (a) Contracts for equipment and materials estimated to cost more than US$500,000 equivalent each would be procured through ICB (US$1.2 million) with the exception of furniture, which could be procured through NCB. Such furniture, manufactured by local suppliers, is of excellent quality and priced below international cost, and its delivery and supply would be appropriate for this project. - 20 - (b) Contracts for goods costing US$100,000-500,000 equivalent would be procured through NCB. (US$0.7 million) (c) Contracts for goods that the Bank agrees to be of proprietary nature (such as computer software, books, and reference materials) may be awarded through direct contracting after negotiations with proprietors or publishers in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Bank. (US$0.2 million) (d) Contracts for goods costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each may be awarded through shopping procedures on the basis of three price quotations from suppliers. (US$0.2 million). 4,30 Consultant services. Consultants financed under the project would be selected in accordance with the Bank's guidelines for consultants. Consultant services would consist of foreign or local specialized services to conduct specific studies or to offer short-term advice- The project would also finance study tours abroad, some short-term overseas training, and local seminars. A large number of consultant contracts would be related to civil works (architectural and engineering services). The procedures under which such services are engaged are well-known and efficient (Annex 8 summarizes t-chnical assistance, training and seminars to be needed and held during project implementation). 4.31 Contracts and contract review. (a) Items to be disbursed on the basis of proof of services would be subject to Bank review as described in Annex 7. (b) Works. Contracts exceeding US$500,000 equivalent would be subject to prior Bank review. Contracts below US$500,000 equivalent would be subject to ex-post Bank review. (c) Goods. To ensure compliance with Bank procurement guidelines, procurement documentation for all contracts for goods estimated to cost the equivalent of US$500,000 equivalent or more would be subject to prior review by the Bank. Contracts valued at less than US$500,000 equivalent would be subject to ex-post review (as described in Annex 7). (d) Consultant services and training. Procurement documentation for all contracts for consulting firms, estimated to exceed the equivalent of US$100,000 would be subject to prior review by the Bank. Procurement documentation for all contracts for the employment of indiN iduals or single source selection of firms estimated to exceed the equivalent of US$50,000 would also be subject to prior review by the Bank. Procurement documentation for all contracts for consulting firms estimated to cost less than US$100,000 equivalent and US$50,000 for all contracts for the employment of individuals or single source selection of firms estimated to cost less than the equivalent of US$50,000 would be limited to terms of references only. (e) Contracts and financial data related to activities subject to lump sum disbursement procedures will not be subject to post review but will be subject to technical audit [para. 4.35]. Disbursement 4 32 The project would be implemented over a period of five years. Including a 12-month disburseniet lag. the closing date would therefore be December 31, 2003. The loan would be disbursed according to the categories and schedule shown in Tables 4.4, 4.5 and 4.6. - 21 - Table 4.4. Disbursement by category Category Schedule Category 1 Civil Works (a) lump-sum for items listed in table 4.5; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures and 70% of local expenditures for items not listed. Category 2 Equipment 100% of foreign expenditures and 70% of local expenditures. Category 3 Consultants' 100% services, surveys & training Table 4.5 Disbursement by lump sum: Lump sum disbursement amounts by activities (DH) Activities lump sum disbursement PROMOTION NATIONALE Water wells and water related works 45 000 Communal ablution blocks 35 000 Dams, retaining walls etc. 60 000 Community centers 220000 Dirt roads (per km) 60 000 Reforestation (per hectare) 15 000 Table 4.6 Proposed disbursement schedule (US$ million) Disbursement Plan Project Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Annual 1.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 Cumulative 1.0 5.0 11.0 17.0 23.0 28.0 Note: Because of budgetary planning constraints, payment delays, and disbursement lag, the disbursed amount estimated for the first year of implementation would represent the initial deposit to the special account only. 4.33 Documentation. In accordance with regular Government procedures, the required supporting documents would be retained by the implementing agencies for at least one year after the Bank received the audit report for the year in which the last disbursement was made. This documentation would be made available for review by auditors and visiting staff upon request. Documentation for contracts subject to lump sum disbursement would consist of a "proof of services". This is a certificate - 22 - established by the Borrower, confirming that the specific activity has been implemented in accordance with agreed standards and criteria. (Annex 7). The content and procedure to establish a proof of service was presented in a format agreed upon during negotiations [para. 6.03c(v)]. Both the disbursement by lump sum and the documentation by proof of services are innovative, result-oriented methods aiming at simplifying procedures and accelerating project disbursement, while giving more initiative to the beneficiaries (especially communities); they concur with the directions set in the new Guidelines for Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits (para. 3.15). For expenditures under contracts above the prior review threshold, full documentation would be required. All other expenditures would be disbursed based on Statement of Expenditures (SOE). 4.34 Special Account. To reduce the number of claims submitted to the Bank, the Government may establish, maintain, and operate--under terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank--one Special Account, in which the Bank would make an initial deposit of up to US$2.0 million. This special account would be located in the General Treasury of the Ministry of Finance and would be replenished every month, or whenever the undisbursed balance of the account would fall below an amount equal to one third or less of the amount of the initial deposit, whichever came first. 4.35 Accounts and audits. Each department responsible for the implementation of the project in the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Population would maintain separate accounts for all project activities in conformance with international accounting practices. Project accounts would be audited in accordance with the Guidelines for Financial Reporting and Auditing of Projects Financed by the World Bank (World Bank, March 1982). Activities subject to reimbursement on the basis of proof of services would be audited in accordance with OD 10.60, para. 48. For technical audits, both reimbursement claims using SOEs and applications for replenishment of special expenditures from the Special Account would be required to be certified by an independent expert rather than by an auditor. The Bank would be provided with an audit report of such scope and detail as the Bank might reasonably request (including a separate opinion by the auditor on disbursement against a certified statement of expenditures and a certified statement of proof of services) within the six months following the end of each fiscal year. Supervision, monitoring, and evaluation 4.36 Status of project preparation. The Secrtariat has de facto taken over the responsibility for coordinating the preparation of the three projects. The Secr6tariat has convened a number of meetings with other concerned ministries, and has organized a workshop on monitoring the implementation of the SDS. It liaises on a regular basis with the two executing agencies of the project, i.e the Promotion Nationale and the DS, which is a department of the Ministry of Population (where the Secrtariat is domiciliated). Bids would be launched as soon as the corresponding budgets were available. Provincial delegations would start preparing bid documents as soon as the ministries delegated the implementation of those activities and provided corresponding budgets. But because of budgetary planning, payment, and disbursement lags, during the first year of implementation the loan would disburse only the amount corresponding to the initial deposit to the Special Account. 4.37 Project implementation review. Each line ministry would prepare an annual implementation progress report of a scope and in the detail agreed upon by the Government and the Bank. These reports would be submitted to the Bank not later than September 30 of each year beginning in 1997 [para. 6.03d(iii)]. The annual report would (i) review the progress made in the implementation of the various components of the project on the basis of the indicators agreed upon, (ii) detail sectoral (PN ) and project expenditures (PN, Observatory and Secr6tariat) for the current year, and (iii) set forth all - 23 - projected activities to to be undertaken under the project in each selected province. In addition, the Secretariat would collect and synthetize annual reports issued for all three BAJ projects, offer a qualitative assessment of the program progress, and consolidate them in an annual program implementation report for discussion with the Bank. A mid-term project implementation review would be conducted no later than December 31, 1999 [paras. 3.10 and 6.03d(i)]. This mid-term review would not only assess the project's implementation progress in greater detail but would also assess the extent to which project activities might need to be redirected to achieve the objectives of the program. In particular it would reassess the administrative status of the Observatory. 4.38 Monitoring indicators. The Government has developed, in coordination with the Bank, a list of program and project indicators (Annex 9) by which both the process and the impact of the proposed operations can be monitored. The list of indicators had been agreed upon before negotiations [para. 6.02a]. It was agreed during negotiations that baseline and target values for most indicators would be established by June 30, 1997 [para. 6.03d(iv)]. Thereafter, the value of these indicators would be updated each year and incorporated in the annual implementation report submitted to the Bank each year by the Secretariat [para. 6.03d(iii)]. V. PROJECT BENEFITS AND RISKS A. Benefits 5.01 The following benefits are expected to accrue from the proposed project: (a) The creation of the equivalent of about 30,000 working-years for underemployed persons and persons in deprived, drought-plagued areas in the thirteen poorest provinces of Morocco, which have been targeted for the SPP/BAJ. (b) Improvement of the local environment in about 600 rural communities where the PN would open sites. This would be accomplished by the construction or improvement of local infrastructure used by over 300,000 households and would amplify the beneficial effects of the other two SPP/BAJ projects. (c) Reinforcement, through the work of the Observatory and through the results of the LSMS, of the analytical base used by decision-makers. This should lead to a better general understanding of the interdependence of macroeconomic policy decisions and living conditions and of poverty's multisectoral dimension. By enabling decision- makers to see the impact of programs on beneficiary populations and geographic zones better and faster, it should also help bring about more efficient targeting and remedial action. (d) Improvement of the country's ability to monitor and assess public sector efforts, to raise public awareness, build consensus, and catalyze activity in support of a comprehensive and aggressive social policy that would both complement and enhance Morocco' economic ambitions. B. Risks 5.02 Certain risks are common to all project components, while others are component-specific. One common risk is posed by the lack of experience of the two ministries concerned with executing Bank-financed projects. The technical assistance envisaged for each of the ministries should suffice to mitigate their lack of experience, particularly since these ministries are already engaged in most of the activities planned under the project and have most of the required technical skills. A second, related common risk is the possibility of implementation delays, which could reduce the efficacy of the two other concurrent SPP/BAJ projects. Implementation delays would be reduced by the fact that all SPP/BAJ projects would be coordinated at the provincial level by the Governors and - 24 - monitored at the central level by the same authorities. Systematic use of an adapted program management and information system and implementation of the recommendations of the ongoing study on fund flow would further contribute to shorten implementation delays. 5.03 The first component-specific risk could arise from pressures put on the PN to devote more of its resources to non poverty-oriented activities. This risk would be reduced by a clear targeting system, by resorting to a beneficiary assessments monitoring system, and by the agreement on a schedule to reduce the share of activities in urban communities. The second specific risk stems from the Observatory's lack of independence or, conversely from abusing its own hegemony over other producers and users of social statistics. The Secr6tariat could also err either on the side of inaction or over-control. To make sure that the proper balance between administrative freedom and control is being maintained, the supervisory ministry's relation to the Observatory would be assessed during the midterm project review. Precise and transparent terms of reference for the Secritariat, together with the commitment to use an appropriate management system, should assure its effective operation. In addition, project, program and impact indicators would help assessors to follow the project's progress and to detect significant deviations from its initial objectives. C. Stakeholders' Participation 5.04 Preparation of the labor-intensive public works component has heavily relied on beneficiary inputs. Elected and appointed representatives of the targeted communities in all the selected provinces have conveyed their needs to local PN representatives, who in turn have gathered these data and forwarded them to the PN headquarters in Rabat administration. The final design of the PN program of activities is the result of this wide, bottom-up consultation, and reflects an approach based on the needs expressed by those very people who express them, who would contribute to their satisfaction through their work, and who would ultimately use the investment created as a response. During project implementation, an annual beneficiary assessment would be carried out by the PN, thus ensuring that implementation of this demand-driven component would also be monitored in part by its beneficiaries. Preparation of the statistical monitoring component has also benefited from potential users, through, inter alia, the organization of a workshop on the methodology of evaluation of programs such as the SPP (UNDP contributed to the organization of this workshop, also attended by representatives from other UN specialized agencies). The LSMS would allow to reorient activities of this and other programs to neglected groups and/or regions which had not been identified earlier as vulnerable. Finally, the other two projects of the SPP/BAJ Program have also been prepared with the participation of actual actors and potential beneficiaries, thus ensuring that the integrated activities envisaged under the program would coincide with real needs perceived by the targeted population, and would mobilize those in charge of implementing the measures aimed at meeting these needs. D. Poverty Category 5.05 The proposed project is part of the SPP Program whose entire justification and overarching objective is poverty alleviation. Eighty percent of the loan would be directly used to improve living conditions and environment of vulnerable persons in the rural areas of the 13 poorest provinces in the country. The rest of the loan would contribute to a better monitoring of poverty and to coordination of poverty alleviation activities. Therefore, this project would be a "Program of Targeted Interventions". - 25 - E. Environmental Assessment 5.06 The proposed project, as currently formulated, was reviewed under the procedures specified in O.D.4.00, Annex A: Environmental Assessment and determined to be in screening category C, which includes projects that do not normally result in significant environmental impact. No Environmental Assessment, therefore, would be conducted for this project. VI. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6 01 During project preparation and appraisal, the following actions were taken: (a) The Strat9gie de D6veloppement Social was reendorsed [para. 2.02]. (b) The contract for the study on financial circuits was signed [para. 4.231. (c) The Secretariat was informally installed [para. 3.13]. 6.02 Before issuing the invitation to negotiate: The final list of selected project indicators was transmitted to the Bank [para. 4.38]. 6.03 During negotiations, agreement was reached or assurances given regarding: (a) Sector specific actions (i) Schedule for the reduction of the share of PN activities devoted to urban community works (Chantiers d'opportunitg occasionnelle) to 20% by December 31, 2000 [para. 3.06]. (ii) Contents and scope of the LSMS [para. 3.12]. (b) Financing (i) Provision of counterpart funds, financing of all operating costs associated with the implementation, administration, and supervision of the project and establishment of individualized project lines in the budget of the Ministries of Interior and Population, starting with the fiscal year 1996/97 [para. 4.05]. (ii) Retroactive financing within the limits of 10% of the amount of the loan [para.4.05] (c) Project implementation (i) Setting up by the Secretariat of a Program Management Information System on a geographic basis, and staffing both the Secretariat and the PN for the implementation of such systems by December 31, 1997, [paras. 3.08 and 4.22]. (ii) Terms of reference and staffing for the Secretariat [para. 3.13]. - 26 - (iii) Presentation to the Bank of an action plan to improve procurement, payment, and disbursements, based on the results of the ongoing study on fund flows, before March 31, 1997, and launching implementation of the plan after its discussion with the Bank, no later than October 31, 1997 [para. 4.23]. (iv) Appointment of a SPP/BAJ coordinator in the Promotion Nationale and of a SPP/BAJ focal point in each target province by December 31. 1996, and Secr9tariat convening a meeting of all SPP/BAJ coordinators and focal points once a year [paras. 4.24 and 4.25]. (v) Procedures to establish a proof of service, and format of such a certificate [para. 4.33]. (d) Project review (i) Organization of a joint mid-term project review by December 31, 1999, and reassessment, during the review, of the institutional status of the Observatory with a view to possibly granting more autonomy [para. 3.10 and 4.37]. (ii) Secrtariat's responsibility to initiate a minimum two beneficiary assessments for each of the three proposed SPP/BAJ projects, the first one to be included in the report to be prepared for the the mid-term review, and the second one before project's completion [paras. 3.08, 3.13b and 4.12]. (iii) Submission to the Bank, no later than September 30 of each year beginning in 1997, of an annual project implementation report that would include a review of project progress on the basis of selected indicators, projected sectoral and project expenditures, and PN provincial programs, and of a synthetic program implementation report for the three SPP projects [paras. 4.37 and 4.38]. (iv) Baseline and target values of selected project indicators [para. 4.38]. 6.04 As conditions of Board presentation, (a) The Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions has been formally established [para. 3.10]. (b) The Secrtariat has been formally established, according to agreed terms of reference [para. 3.13]. Annex 1 Page 1 of 2 Annex 1. Promotion Nationale: Structure, Activities and Financing Table 1. Promotion Nationale: Breakdown of Activities by Nature of Works (1961-1991 and 1986-1991) Annual Annual Average Average Type of Site Nature of Works Unit 1961-1991 1986-1991 Reforestation Ha 6800 5700 Soil protection and reclamation Ha 4200 300 Development Land development Ha 4000 0 Seguias (irrigation ditches) Km 10000 60000 Green spaces Ha 60 20 Opening of feeder Rural roads Km 2000 3300 Infrastructure Feeder road development Km 1900 130 Structures Nb 70 17 Roads M2 19400 95000 Urban Sidewalk paving M2 67000 416000 Infrastructure Drains Km 4300 22000 Structures Nb 2200 154 Source: Promotion Nationale. Table 2. Promotion Nationale: Breakdown of Expenditures by Type of Program, 1988-91 (percent of total) Other expenditure ._Wages s Traditional activities 45.1 54.9 Hill dams 69.6 30.4 Saharan provinces 87.9 12.1 Communities 100 0 WFP program 74.4 25.6 Italian cooperation 20.2 79.8 Operation Hill Lakes 75.5 24.5 TOTAL 75.4 24.6 Source: Promotion Nationale Annex 1 Page 2 of 2 Table 3. Promotion Nationale Budget by type of funding and type of program, 1987-93 (DH millions) 1987- 1987- 1993 1993 1987 1990 1993 Total Percent A. National funding Traditional activities Development 30.1 86.3 58.2 320.0 10.4 Infrastructure 13.0 5 44.5 79.4 2.6 Equipment 75.8 54.3 212.3 494.5 16.1 Urban communities 86.3 102.9 177.2 847.7 27.7 Saharan provinces 66.7 70.7 112.7 583.5 19.1 Hill dams 87.1 16.9 0.0 212.8 6.9 Hill lakes 0.0 0.3 0.0 13.9 0.5 PN equipment 11.9 12.4 19.6 66.3 2.2 Subtotal 371.0 348.8 624.5 2618.1 85.5 Hill lake (V.A.T.) 0.0 36.7 10.7 230.7 7.5 Subtotal national funding 371.0 385.5 635.1 2848.8 93.0 B. External funding USAID 30.6 0.0 0.0 85.6 2.8 Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.0 2.9 PAM 0.0 7.0 0.0 39.1 1.3 Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Subtotal external funding 30.6 7.0 0.0 213.6 7.0 Total 401.5 392.5 635.1 3062.4 100.0 Source: Promotion Nationale. Table 4. Promotion Nationale Number of sites and number of jobs created by group of provinces, 1993 Person- Person- year No. of days equival Provinces sites (000) ent A. SPP/BAJ provinces 803 2.368 12,024 B. Other provinces 985 3.468 17,514 C. Total 1,788 5.837 29,538 Source: Promotion Nationale Annex 2 Page 1 of 2 SPP/BAJ: ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE Table 1. Ministry-Level Responsibilities for the Three SPP Projects MEN MSP MEAS MI MP (3) Primary (1) Primary(3Prmy I. BASIC EDUCATION (2) Literacy School Education* Construction* (4) Basic II. BASIC HEALTH Heath Health III. COORDINATION (6) Statistical AND MONITORING Monitoring OF SOCIAL (5omlon (7) Program PROGRAMS, AND Coordination LABOR PROMOTION I (Sectariat) MEN: Minist6re de I'Education Nationale (Ministry of National Education) MSP: Minist6re de la Sant6 Publique (Ministry of Public Health) MEAS: Minist6re de I'Emploi et des Affaires Sociales (Ministry of Labor and of Social Affairs) MI: Minist6re de l'Int6rieur (Ministry of the Interior) MP: Minist6re de la Population (Ministry of Population) * school construction not included " supervised by local collectivities Table 2. SPP/BAJ Organizational Chart CSSS Basic Education Basic Health Employment Promotion and Project Project Poverty Monitoring Project MEN MEWAS I MSP MP L pF mI SSP Technical SSP SSP SSP SSP Coordinator Committee Coordinator Coordinator Coordinator Coordinator I p Delegate Delegate (eeae Provincial I_ Focal pointI S _ > Annex.3 Page 1 of 1 PROVINCES SELECTED FOR THE SPP PROGRAM Rural Share in Total Share in population, total rural population, total 1994 population 1994 population Ratio Rank Province (000) (%) (000) (%) rural/total Saharan provinces 1. Ouarzazate 553 4.4% 695 2.7% 80% 2. Taroudant 560 4.4% 694 2.7% 81% 3. Tiznit 278 2.2% 348 1.3% 80% Wilaya of Marrakech 4. Al Haouz 402 3.2% 435 1.7% 92% 5. Chichaoua 280 2.2% 312 1.2% 90% 6. El Kelaa Sraghna 551 4.4% 682 2.6% 81% 7. Essaouira 358 2.8% 434 1.7% 82% 8. Safi 447 3.5% 823 3.2% 54% Wilaya Grand Casablanca 9. Azilal 393 3.1% 455 1.7% 86% Wilaya of Tetouan 10. Chefchaouen 396 3.1% 439 1.7% 90% 11. Sidi Kacem 471 3.7% 646 2.5% 73% Wilaya of Fes 12. Al Hoceima 270 2.1% 383 1.5% 70% 13. Taza 502 4.0% 708 2.7% 71% Total, selected provinces 5,461 43.1% 7,054 27.1% 77% Total Morocco 12,659 100.0% 26,074 100.0% 49% Source: Minist6re de l'Incitation de I'Economie - Direction de la Statistique. R6sultats provisoires du Recensement G6n6ral de la Population. February 1995. Note: Criteria for the selection of provinces 1. Living standards indicators 1.1 Annual per capita expenditures 1.2 Urbanization rate 2. Education sector indicators 2.1 Illiteracy rate 2.2 Admission rate in first year of primary education (children aged 7) 3. Health sector indicators 3.1 Under-5 mortality rate 3.2 Population per physician 3.3 Population per paramedical staff 3.4 Population per health center Annex. Page 1 of 2 SELECTED PROJECT DATA Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions Objectives. To achieve the improvement of population living condition, the 1991 Strategy for Social Development (SDS) has recommended the design of measuring instruments for "monitoring the social impact through specific indicators, carrying out a series of studies, and establishing a social database on vulnerable groups". By observing multi-sectoral development indicators, the Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions (OMLC) can monitor the impact of social policies and programs on their primary beneficiaries, and present relevant recommendations to policy makers for reorienting these policies for better efficiency. It is therefore recommended to establish an Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions (OMLC) basically oriented towards advising policy makers on how to design poverty alleviation policies, and to upgrade these programs for better reaching their objectives. Administrative Status. The project would therefore support the establishment of an OMLC within the Department of Statistics, and under the authority of the Director of DS. At the first stage, the OMLC will function as part of the Direction de la Statistique (DS). It will gradually be granted an independent semi-public status with relative financial and administrative autonomy from the administration. A mid-term performance review, to be held in 1998, will help assessing the viability of the OMLC and should present relevant recommendation with regards to the modification of its status. Mandate. The overall mandate of the OMLC is to (i) monitor the changes over time of a selected set of key socioeconomic indicators, and to carry out specific studies intended to the formulation, implementation and evaluation of social programs, undertaken by public and private institutions. This mandate will include carrying out the following activities: (i) Establish and maintain a database on living conditions, generated by quantitative and qualitative surveys, populations censuses, and administrative statistics; (ii) Design and monitor key socioeconomic indicators intended for policy makers as an input into a periodic social balance sheet; (iii) Undertake on request retrospective and analytical as well as simulation and prospective studies, in the social and economic sectors, including inter alia on issues relating to human resources, employment, poverty. The studies' scope could be national, regional or sectoral; (iv) Assist sectoral departments in line ministries and evaluation/monitoring services in social projects, for addressing methodological issues, determining socioeconomic indicators; and undertake specifically defined studies on standards of living in pre- defined areas; (v) Contribute to the harmonization of statistical concepts and guidelines at the national level for the design of measurement methods of household standards of living. (vi) Disseminate analytical findings throughout regular or ad-hoc publications; and (vii) Establish a dialogue within the data user-producer community on statistical issues, and promote a data open access policy. A large volume of statistical information is currently collected in Morocco, archived and sometimes analyzed by the DS and other line ministries. Nevertheless, policy makers are still lacking accurate, operational, and timely data, to support the policy making process. The OMLC should therefore be able to fill in this gap by making this data easily accessible in a user-friendly AnncA Page 2 of 2 format. On the other hand, the driving principles that should govern OMLC's working approach are based on scientifically defined methods. Its findings will be formulated and disseminated in an independent and objective way. The OMLC would be managed according to a set of mechanisms that would ensure its capacity to (i) maintain an interactive attitude towards public, private and international users; (ii) meet the needs of policy makers and private users for accurate and reliable socioeconomic analysis in a timely fashion; (iii) maintain the dialogue between users and producers of data; (iv) ensure open access to data for the users community; (v) undertake retrospective and prospective studies in an independent spirit non-subject to power struggle (balance of power); (vi) maintain a fair flexibility in its work program to respond to specific needs, especially those requested by the implementation of the SDS; and (vi) secure training for its own staff. The OMLC research will be primarily based on nationally available data in both published materials and electronic data sets. It will however avoid using its resources for data gathering, unless the latter activity has been specifically requested by other institutions. On the other hand, the OMLC will be a partner in strengthening the national information system and consolidating statistical capacities of different ministerial departments. The OMLC will conduct its work program in a scientific and objective manner and will publish its finding in a politically neutral way in order to facilitate the decision making process. Staffing: At its outset, the OMLC will benefit from the human resources, experience and funding of the Department of Statistics. A number of civil servants will be assigned from the DS, Ministry of Population, and other line ministries. The OMLC will be also in position to recruit national long-term contractual staff, and international short-term specialists as their specific skills might be needed. Work program. During the first phase of its existence, the OMLC will be responsible for carrying out in priority the following tasks: (i) define, in coordination with other line ministries, a set of policy relevant key socioeconomic indicators on living conditions and poverty; (ii) monitor changes in socioeconomic indicators; (iii) assess, on an annual basis, the impact of public policy and programs on the population in general and on targeted beneficiary groups; (iv) undertake multi- sectoral studies on socioeconomic changes nation-wide and on specific geographic areas; (v) develop new methodologies for social and economic investigations and analysis; (vi) disseminate the finding of these studies by regular publications and by organizing public seminars and workshops; and (vii) ensure training for its own staff. Organization. The OMLC would be placed under the responsibility of a Technical Director, who would report to the DS Director. As a reflection of its work program, the OMLC would be organized in three distinct sections: (i) Measurement of Living Conditions; (ii) Social Indicators; and (iii) Coordination, Dissemination and Training. Each of these sections would be divided into specialized units according to the ongoing studies and activities. Annex Page 1 of 1 Expenditure Accounts by Components - Base Costs (US$ Million) IIIA IIIB IIIC Employment Statistical Strategy Promotion Monitoring Implementation Total Investment Costs WORKS New Construction 14.5 - - 14.5 Development/Rehabilitation 17.0 -- 17.0 Subtotal 31.5 - - 31.5 EQUIPMENTS Machinery, Tools - 0.0 - 0.0 Vehicles 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 Data processing 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 Office Supplies - 0.2 - 0.2 Subtotal 0.3 0.9 0.8 2.0 EXPERTISE Studies - - 2.2 2.2 Foreign Consultants 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 Local Consultants 0.0 0.4 - 0.4 Subtotal 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.7 TRAINING Local /a 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Abroad - 0.1 - 0.1 Seminars - 0.1 - 0.1 Subtotal 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 Total Investment Costs 31.9 2.1 4.0 38.0 Recurrent Costs Operating Costs 0.0 1.2 0.5 1.7 Salaries - 0.5 - 0.5 Total Recurrent Costs 0.0 1.7 0.5 2.2 Total BASELINE COSTS 31.9 3.8 4.5 40.2 Physical Contingencies 3.2 0.3 0.3 3.8 Price Contingencies 4.8 0.3 0.4 5.5 Total PROJECT COSTS 39.8 4.4 5.2 49.5 Taxes 6.0 0.4 0.8 7.2 Foreign Exchange 9.7 1.6 1.6 12.9 \a including information and awareness campaigns Annex 6 Page 1 of 3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DATA A. Promotion Nationale 1. Costs. For the type of local infrastructure work undertaken by the PN, the private sector would charge between 30 percent (constructions) and 60 percent (feeder roads) more than the PN. Indeed, PN costs should be adjusted for overhead and the burden of the agency's own permanent staff. However, the latter represents only 2 percent of the annual operating costs (a very low figure which reflects the light staffing of the PN), leaving a hefty comparative edge for the state-run agency. PN unit costs (per site) for the works to be completed under the SPP/BAJ program would run between $600 (for an anti-malaria campaign) and $37,000 (construction on one community building averaging 200 in2 ). A third of the budget would be devoted to feeder road maintenance, which costs about $12,000 per km (Table 1). The daily cost per man day created for the activities selected under the project would run between $5 (for feeder roads) and $23 (for wells construction). Given the structure of the works envisaged, the average cost of one day-job created would be around $7. Table 1. Promotion Nationale Unit costs by type of work Unit Cost Wages as a (DI) Percent of Cost 1. Sources and wells: maint./impr. 50000 70 2. Latrines: construction 40000 50 3. Slaughter houses: maint./impr. 90000 60 4. Slaughter houses: construction 150000 50 5. Anti-malaria campaigns 5000 100 6. Preschool facilities: maint./impr. 40000 65 7. Preschool facilities: construction 70000 50 8. Small infrastructure: construction 100000 65 9. Community buildings: construction 310000 50 10. Wells: construction 70000 60 11. Irrigation ditches 80000 60 12. Feeder roads: maint./impr. 100000 90 13. Feeder roads: opening 160000 80 14. Reforestation 20000 90 Source: Promotion Nationale 2. Benefits. On average, the wage bill for the unskilled workers who will be recruited will account for 60 percent of the total costs of the activities to be undertaken under the project. This average is higher than the actual figure observed for the "traditional activities" in which the PN is engaged in (45 percent over the period 1988/91), because the agency will increase the share of higher labor intensive activities such as feeder road maintenance and opening. The lowest proportion of labor Annex 6 Page 2 of 3 costs in the budget of any site will be for construction, where they will represent 50 percent (Table 1). Typically, the opening of one site will translate into 500 (for the construction of a latrine) to roughly 3,500 person-days (construction of a community building or opening 1 km of feeder road). In other words, as most of the works are being done during the three less active months of the year, each site will keep active between 10 and 60 persons for three months (Table 2). Table 2. Promotion Nationale Beneficiaries by type of work No. of No. of Person- No. of projects person- years potential days by equivalent users 1. Sources and wells: maint.impr. 540 270 480 91660 2. Latrines: construction 177 480 250 5360 3. Small infrastructure: construction 150 1620 540 136720 4. Community buildings: construction 220 3870 2980 22600 5. Wells: construction 1371 1050 4830 254430 6. Irrigation ditches 213 1200 760 41580 7. Feeder roads: maint./impr. 1778 2250 11170 403400 8. Feeder roads: opening 152 3210 1570 42170 9. Reforestation 2155 450 3890 278800 Total 6756 26470 1276720 m:\bm\mor\pal54\sarc\sarcx6.ed sheet 1 B. Statistical Monitoring 1. Justification. The LSMS survey provides the opportunity to measure the level, distribution and depth of poverty. There are several other types of qualitative, small sized, rapid appraisal surveys that could be considered. There are numerous advantages and disadvantages for these surveys: they are indeed easy to design, quick to deliver, and quick to process and to disseminate; however, they are not appropriate when (i) project affects large number of beneficiaries, (ii) policy makers require accurate estimates of project impact; (iii) statistical comparisons must made between groups of households, and (iv) target population is heterogeneous and it is difficult to isolate the influence of factors unrelated to the project. This is why a statistically representative sample of nation-wide households should be surveyed. The LSMS-Type survey can measure household consumption, cash and in-kind expenditure, value of food items grown at home or received as gift, ownership of housing and durable good, but importantly, help better understand household behavior, and causes of poverty, including the mechanisms of resource allocation within the household. 2. Costs. The "prototype" budget developed in a recent Bank study' for an "average" LSMS using a 3,200 household sample (same size as the previous LSMS in Morocco) is $1,300,000. However, the same study reports a variation by a factor of 20-fold factor. The size of the survey M.E. Grosh and J. Mufloz, "Implementing the LSMS Survey: A Manual." World Bank, 1995. Annex 6 Page 3 of 3 sample is the first most important factor to determine the costs. Once it is known, the next key element is whether or not the staff to be sent to the field (field supervisors, interviewers, etc.) is to receive some kind of compensation: wages and travel allowance. In the prototype budget, salaries and travel allowance represent close to a third of the budget. Another critical factor is the need to provide vehicles for the field work. In Morocco, both elements would inflate significantly the costs of data collection, but data analysis would not represent an additional burden, as the qualified staff would be allocated to this task at no extra charge. Annex 7 Page 1 of I PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENT UNDER PROOF OF SERVICE A "proof of service" is a certificate established by the Government confirming that the specific operation, service or activity has been implemented in accordance with agreed standards, criteria or terms of references which have been reviewed by the Bank at priori. For a "certificate of proof of service" (Certificate) to be awarded these procedures would have to be followed: (a) By September of each year, a yearly program of activities, planned to be implemented during the next fiscal year, will need to be established for each of the concerned communities. This program will be established by the delegates at the provincial levels, submitted for review and clearance to the respective line ministries and for approval to the Bank. (b) Budgets, corresponding to the approved list of activities will be made available by the line ministries to the provincial delegations. For the construction of primary school facilities, each community will include the necessary funds in its annual budget. (c) Activities subject to lump sum disbursement procedures will be procured: (i) in accordance with National Procurement Procedures; (ii) for civil works: in accordance with agreed standards or architectural drawings reviewed at priori by the Bank; and; (iii) for training and seminars in accordance with agreed terms of references established for each type of training or seminar, and reviewed by the Bank at priori. (iv) Contracts and financial data related to activities subject to lump sum disbursement procedures will not be subject to post review. (d) Upon completion of the activity, the ministry's representative, accompanied by a technical staff (architect, water supply specialists or engineer for civil works, etc.) will inspect the completed facility or review the training/seminar, and issue a Certificate of completion and/or a Certificate confirming that the training/seminar took place and was delivered as planned. This technical Certificate will certify that the described activity has been implemented in accordance with the agreed standards, criteria or terms of references, and will be established in a format and content acceptable to the Bank. Because the disbursement amount is not a percentage of a contract amount, and because the item has been procured in accordance with National Procurement Procedures, it will not be required that the certificate mention the cost of the operation, nor the procurement procedure. (e) This certificate will be forwarded to the concerned Ministry which will prepare a monthly Statement of Expenditures (SOE), listing all completed activities. The cost of each activity will be the average cost as defined in Table 4.5 of the SAR. The amount to be reimbursed will be the lump sum amount per activity, as listed in Table 4.5 and in Schedule I of the Loan Agreement. The certificate of completion may also trigger other activities such as providing furniture, educational material, teachers for education facilities, and medical equipment and staff for health related facilities. (f) The annual audit will include an audit (at random) of some of the Certificates. The audit will also include a technical audit (at random) of the implemented activities. Annexl Page 1 of 2 Summary of Technical Assistance and Training Table I Technical Assistance NATURE RESOURCES RESOURCES National International (person-month) (person-month) A EMPLOYMENT PROMOTION 1. Launch setting up of the Project Im/m Management Information System (PMIS) 2. Design a Beneficiary Assessment Im/m methodology 3. Develop a post-literacy campaign Ip/m 2p/m B. STASTISTICAL MONITORING 4. Feasibility Study 2p/m lp/m 5. Design data base & requirements I p/m 6. Design analytical guidelines 2p/m 7. Socio-economic studies 24p/m 36p/m 8. Assesment of data sources 2p/m 9. Design socio-economic indicators Ip/m 2p/m 10. Design annual social study 1p/m 11. Survey analysis and studies 18p/m 12. LSMS Survey design 1p/m 13. LSMS Survey Analysis 2p/m C. PROGRAM COORDINATION 12. Design, set up, install and follow the 30p/m Program Information Management System for all BAJ/SPP ministries and the 3 projects AnncL8 Page 2 of 2 Table 2 Training NATURE OCCURRENCE RESOURCES (person/month) A EMPLOYMENT PROMOTION 1. Training Workshop in PMIS 2 1 p/m 2. STATISTICAL MONITORING 3. Mid-term evaluation seminar 1 1 4. Training Workshop in analysis 2 each year 6 methods 5. Training course in data base 6p/m management 6. Presentation Seminar of social study I each year 7. Data dissemination/sensibilization I each year seminar 8.LSMS presentation seminar I 9. Data dissemination seminar I Annex 9 Page 1 of I Project Implementation Monitoring: Key Indicators Promotion Nationale Indicator Geographic Contents Baseline Value Target Value Unit (1996) (2000/01) A. Global indicators 1. Poverty orientation National PN budget allocated to "Chantiers 50% 20% (a) d'opportuniti occasionnelle" / Total PN budget B. Project Process Indicators (b) 2. Employment Target Number of person-days created N/A N/A creation Provinces each year through PN/BAJ sites 3. Income transfers Target Wage bill distributed through N/A N/A Provinces PN/BAJ sites 4. Physical N/A N/A performances 4.1 Sources Target 4.1 Number of sources N/A N/A Provinces maintained/created 4.2 Latrines Target 4.2 Number of N/A N/A Provinces communal latrines built 4.3 Infrastructure Target 4.3 Number or rural infrastructure N/A N/A Provinces built (by category) 4.4 Community Target 4.4 Number of social facilities built N/A N/A centers Provinces (by category) 4.5 Irrigation Target 4.5 Number of km of irrigation N/A N/A ditches Provinces ditches (seguias) opened 4.6 Feeder roads Target 4.6 Number of km of feeder roads N/A N/A Provinces maintained/opened 4.7 Reforestration Target 4.7 Number of ha of reforestred N/A N/A Provinces soils 4.8 Literacy Target 4.8 Number of workers enrolled in N/A N/A Provinces literacy campaigns C. Impact indicators 5. Evaluation (c) Target Douars, Beneficiary Assessments N/A N/A Communities, and Provinces (a) Schedule of reduction agreed upon during negotiations (b) As PN's intervention comes as a complement to activities undertaken under the other two SPP Projects, values of the indicators would be determined once programmation of these activities is completed. Monitoring will be done on an annual basis. (c) There will be two beneficiary assessments: one before the mid-term review and the other one before project completion date. Annex 10 Page 1 of 1 SELECTED INFORMATION IN THE PROJECT FILE I Proect Documentation World Bank/Kingdom of Morocco: Project Implementation Volumes (2 volumes, in French) II References World Bank 1995a Kingdom of Morocco. Country Economic Memorandum. Towards Higher Growth and Employment (Report No. 14155-MOR) World Bank 1995b Claiming the Future. Choosing Prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa World Bank 1995c M. Grosh and J, Mufioz. Implementing the LSMS Survey: A Manual World Bank 1994 Kingdom of Morocco. Poverty, Adjustment, and Growth (Report No. 11918-MOR) Ministtre Charg6 de la Population, Avril 1995 Strat6gie de Ddveloppement Social pour la d6cennie 90 1BRD 2763Е мокоссо В° То^вго ,-- ,0 М А R О С тАиGЕ8.-� SOCIAL PR10R1T1ES PROGRAM . � оТгюРоп ' TETOUAN PROGRAMME PR10R1TES SOCIALES �--' % А�носг,по Nodo. ЕOГOOh•o �^'OChefchaown I � 1 � {" 1 EMPLOYMENT PROMOTION AND POVERTY - .1 снеFснАоиеи_i `1 ИА�Оа \ •'-•�� � AL НОСЕIМА •, % г `L� MONITORING PROJECT кЕиlrRA< ,°Д�==-,п%.--�,.------'��' ^.. � J i.'•'�.,,." об`'о PROJET APPU1 А L EMPLOI ЕТ SU1V1 DE LA PAUVRETE �.� ,� rаоииАтЕ г'� 1 да SELECTED PROGRAM PROVINCES �:;\lоlкАсЕ"'�.� ° (" ',г, 0`�° � Таоипаtе PROVINCES SELECTIONNEES POUR LE PROGRAMME •. 5idi - � То.о ..\ � о �к�ап 'ti--•• - ,.С _ о ошоА ` кепл_о , .. � ... Ее,•'� rAZA Raбat Т� '�- `-.� \,• \ / � КНЕМ155Е�• меkпг�. 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Квlаог� ` А:ТЮТ�� �� � ОЕ.госh�д�а � ';� �� / От•1 sгавьр� �� J _ �,� J �, lоlьдо, � лг1и1� i% �� J- � - - _ (- �т 1,�,пл�t.� ' J �' ( � 1 :v � �Т• �• � . r•�� � �.-•� евк,сСнюlл �- �� � ŭa��Q Tahannoour" ЕцА0_U1RA I chich,o . J �� `��- Гf �-. L r r ° _� Ei rиouz �-1�..� . ) 1 снlсн.аоил � /� , � ) С � ` ) /%" \уΡо-.,�е; ,� ь,ооиго0 '� Г-. I•.I Г �..-� / _ л ОЬег: всй ! �-- � -... � �•--..�•-1--• %' о� п., 1 • J `.� , �,;�_ , OUARZAZATE � 0.у 1 _ r � `�� ',1 � N� Р- SHARE OF RURAL POPULATION OF А PROVINCE О вад�г� Та^�^^^�� �. �г О 1N ТНЕ TOTAL POPULATION OF ТНЕ PROVINCE 1-- Q 1 ,� �. ') т Ркогоетlои �Е 1А POVUwrlОи еиваlЕ ��uNE vвоиисЕ Г` � PAR RAPPOR7 А LA POPULATION 70TAlE DE (А PROVINCE •__ iAROUDANNT % , �^�_.l '\ �.., �� � : ' � ,� BETWEEN 50Т AND 74% AGADIR '•� �\ I `, ~ � ENTRE 50 ЕТ 7е°; ! -•-�`~•� I'! 1 I ��Р 75ТАи�мовЕ �/`•, i � „' ' 4�ro *' � 75л Ет Рш5 т��.�г� ��J_ � гого � �_�-р� RiVERS г '� ` \ ОТАтА ^''��..� COUFS � ЕАи � ПZN1i-- � % О САОР TALES PROVINCIALES г� -�� � / �"J NATIONAL CAPITAL ! l �..� '�- � �/ � CAPITALE иAT10NALE \ i•. • � О�иi� г /� � _..-. PROViNCE BOUиDARiES L1M1TE5 PROVINCIALES �' �� 0 50 100 i50 _•_ 1NTERNAT10NAlBOUNDARIES _ KIIOмETERS FRONTIERES 1NTERNATIONALES 1• GUE�мlмЕ � � � 1NTERNAT�ONдL BOUNDAR�ES Топ�г� �'�__�.•Т I Гне Ьоипдог,л, соlоге, дгпоппоьоп, ипд опу огнг, ,пlогпоьоп _ �АРРвох�мАТЕ� - FRONTIERES iNTEPNATIONALES ,но�п оп rби прр до поr Implу оп rhe рагг о1 Гhг wогlд Вапi Gouv (aPPROxlмдТl0и) опу �иддпгпг оп rhe 1гда1 ri гш о1 апу ге,пгогу, ог опу епдоnепгпr таи-тли � I ог оссгрмпсг о!>ись ьоипдо„г, 2° 1 В• ° MF.FГH 1946 IMAGING Report No: 15075 MOR Type: SAR