Supporting electricity sector reform in Libya : task C - institutional development and performance improvement of GECOL : report 4.2 - improving GECOL technical performance

FINAL REPORT (ISSUE 07A) Supporting electricity sector reform in Libya TASK C: Institutional Development and Performance Improvement of GECOL Report 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 14/12/2017  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Contents 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Generation .................................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Transmission.............................................................................................................. 12 1.3 Control ....................................................................................................................... 14 1.4 Medium Voltage ........................................................................................................ 16 1.5 Distribution................................................................................................................ 17 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 19 3 Generation .............................................................................................................. 24 3.1 Current status............................................................................................................ 24 3.1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................ 24 3.1.2 Overdue maintenance ....................................................................................... 33 3.1.3 Fuel supply ......................................................................................................... 39 3.1.4 Third party power stations ................................................................................ 40 3.1.5 Generation expansion ........................................................................................ 41 3.2 Energy balance .......................................................................................................... 47 3.3 Points of concern....................................................................................................... 50 3.3.1 Immediate concerns .......................................................................................... 50 3.3.2 Longer term concerns ........................................................................................ 51 3.4 Generation action plan.............................................................................................. 52 4 Transmission ........................................................................................................... 56 4.1 Current status............................................................................................................ 56 4.2 Transmission substations .......................................................................................... 57 4.3 Overhead transmission lines ..................................................................................... 63 4.4 Underground transmission cables ............................................................................ 66 4.5 Points of concern....................................................................................................... 67 4.5.1 Immediate concerns .......................................................................................... 67 4.5.2 Longer term concerns ........................................................................................ 67 4.6 Transmission action plan........................................................................................... 69 5 Control .................................................................................................................... 74 5.1 Current status............................................................................................................ 74 5.1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................ 74 2  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 5.1.2 National Control Center (NCC) ........................................................................... 75 5.1.3 Tripoli Regional Control Center (TRCC) .............................................................. 78 5.1.4 Benghazi Regional Control Center (BRCC) ......................................................... 79 5.1.5 Distribution Control Centers (DCC) .................................................................... 80 5.1.6 Generation Dispatch and Transmission Network Control ................................. 82 5.1.7 Telecommunications .......................................................................................... 89 5.1.8 Demand side management (DSM) ..................................................................... 90 5.2 Points of concerns ..................................................................................................... 93 5.2.1 Immediate concerns .......................................................................................... 93 5.2.2 Longer term concerns ........................................................................................ 94 5.3 Control action plan .................................................................................................... 95 6 Medium Voltage (Subtransmission) ......................................................................... 99 6.1 Medium Voltage cables and overhead lines ............................................................. 99 6.1.1 Investment Strategy ........................................................................................... 99 6.1.2 Description of 66kV & 30kV lines (cables and overhead lines) population ..... 101 6.1.3 Condition of GECOL's MV lines, faults and outages ........................................ 102 6.2 Medium Voltage switchgear ................................................................................... 105 6.2.1 Analysis of MV switchgear failures .................................................................. 106 6.3 Medium Voltage power transformers .................................................................... 107 6.3.1 MV transformers investment strategy ............................................................ 108 6.3.2 Description of MV transformers population ................................................... 109 6.3.3 Condition of GECOL MV power transformers and their defects ..................... 109 6.4 Points of concern..................................................................................................... 115 6.4.1 Immediate concerns ........................................................................................ 115 6.4.2 Longer term concerns ...................................................................................... 115 7 Distribution ........................................................................................................... 117 7.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 117 7.2 Distribution asset statistics ..................................................................................... 117 7.3 Investment strategy ................................................................................................ 117 7.3.1 Distribution transformers ................................................................................ 118 7.3.2 Distribution cables ........................................................................................... 118 3  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 7.3.3 Distribution substations ................................................................................... 119 7.4 Description of assets population............................................................................. 120 7.4.1 Ground mounted transformers ....................................................................... 120 7.4.2 Distribution substations ................................................................................... 122 7.4.3 Distribution lines .............................................................................................. 123 7.5 Condition of Distribution assets and their defects ................................................. 124 7.5.1 Condition of ground mounted distribution transformers – defects and failures 124 7.5.2 Condition of pole mounted distribution transformers – defects and failures 130 7.5.3 Condition of GECOL distribution substations and their defects ...................... 134 7.5.4 Condition of distribution lines and their defects ............................................. 139 7.6 Points of concern..................................................................................................... 143 7.6.1 Immediate concerns ........................................................................................ 143 7.6.2 Longer term concerns ...................................................................................... 144 8 MV and Distribution action plan ............................................................................ 145 9 Key Performance Indicators ................................................................................... 153 9.1 Generation KPIs ....................................................................................................... 154 9.1.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 156 9.2 Transmission KPIs .................................................................................................... 158 9.2.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 161 9.3 Control KPIs ............................................................................................................. 162 9.3.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 165 9.4 Medium Voltage KPIs .............................................................................................. 167 9.4.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 168 9.5 Distribution KPIs ...................................................................................................... 169 9.5.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 171 4  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 1 Executive Summary Libya has invested heavily in its electricity infrastructure over the past decades. Although these investments have been directly funded by the Libyan government through its development budget, GECOL, the General Electricity Company of Libya and its sole national power utility, has been the key player planning and orchestrating these investments. The combination of an oil rich nation with a policy of universal electrification and a power utility with stringent criteria on the expansion planning of its system, the result has been a robust power transmission network and ambitious undertaking of generation plant construction projects. Since the events of February 17, 2011, GECOL’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse, and this is reflected in the operation of its core business units and of the Libyan electricity infrastructure. Insecurity and political instability have led to a halt in most projects, successive assaults on GECOL assets and staff, a large increase in thefts, especially of conductors and electrical apparatus, and a significant decline in GECOL’s ability to carry out maintenance activities. The result has been loss of some infrastructure assets, a fall in the performance of the power network, and a severe shortage in power generation capacity causing long power cuts in many parts of the country, especially during the summer and winter peak load periods. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that only the redundancies built into the Libyan power network and the resilient specifications and design of its systems and components, coupled with what can only be described as heroic efforts by many of GECOL’s workforce, has prevented the collapse of the power network and ensured continued supply of power to the majority of the population the majority of the time. This report aims to assess GECOL power system assets, to determine their current capabilities and requirements, and to propose an action plan to GECOL on how to recover and improve its technical activities and services. This will be done with a focus on each of GECOL’s technical business units. Regardless of what is presented in this report, we should point out that GECOL is not standing still. GECOL is itself making great efforts to resolve its many problems and to deal with the obstacles and difficulties the current Libyan political and security situation has created. GECOL has also continued to expand and grow its power network despite the cessation of most other project activities in Libya and general financing difficulties. This report does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis of every aspect of GECOL’s technical activities, nor is it re-inventing the wheel. It has only been possible to collect the data and information in this report through the strong and total support and assistance of 5  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE GECOL’s management and staff, whom we thank profusely. Thus, the details and results of the study are not new material and are already well known to GECOL and its management, who are working hard at resolving the issues discussed. This report attempts to present new perspectives on these issues, to highlight priorities and some of the urgent actions needed, and to help GECOL in the decision-making process. 6  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 1.1 Generation GECOL has some 26 power stations containing 85 generating units of various sizes, technologies and ages distributed around Libya, with the majority along Libya’s Mediterranean coastline. GECOL’s official installed capacity as of 2017 is 10.238GW. While the power available to supply the power network varies continuously in line with external and internal constraints and maintenance and other works, at the time of this study up to 5.35GW was GECOL’s available power, representing 52% of installed capacity. In this report we consider at least 19 units of GECOL’s 85 have reached retirement age and should be decommissioned. Excluding these units, with an installed capacity of 483MW and which have generally contributed no power to the Libyan system over the past years, would leave GECOL with an installed capacity of 9.755GW and the realistic available capacity would become 54.8% of the installed. From an initial overview of GECOL’s power generation, we find:  The generation capacity is heavily tilted towards simple cycle and combined cycle gas turbine units, representing 86% of the installed capacity and 94% of the available capacity. In fact, until the new Gulf power station’s first unit came online in 2014, GECOL had not constructed a new steam power station since 1985.  There is no power generation in the Southern region, causing voltage instabilities and prolonged power outages compared with other parts of Libya. The new Ubari power plant will be an important first step in resolving these problems.  Generation in the eastern region is limited to two aging steam power plants, while the Benghazi Region has one large power generating complex at Benghazi North. Between 2015 and 2016, during which the Eastern and Western power networks were separated due to damage to overhead lines, the Eastern power network suffered from successive blackouts because of its dependence on Benghazi North as the single main source of electricity supply. Recently a contract was signed for four new gas turbine units in Tobruk, and that will help to alleviate this dependence.  Between 2010 and 2016, weighted average generating unit availability has fallen from 78.3% to 66.0%, and the available capacity has fallen from 64.6% to 53.7% of installed capacity, while demand has continued to grow at around 4% per year.  Between 2010 and 2016 the thermal efficiency of GECOL’s power generation has increased by 7.3%, mainly due to the introduction of steam units associated with the combined cycle gas turbine units at Benghazi North and Misurata, and increase operation of generation on natural gas instead of liquid fuel. The latter grew from 41% of energy produced coming from gas in 2010 to 80% in 2016.  Despite all the difficulties of Libya’s project environment since 2011, GECOL has commissioned 14 new generating units between 2012 and August 2017, total an addition of 2.295GW to the installed capacity. 7  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE The main concerns we have identified constraining optimal operation of GECOL’s generation assets and causing the current power shortages in the Libyan power network include: 1. Overdue maintenance: Due to limitations on GECOL’s ability to carry out major maintenance works and overhauls of the power generating units, the power out puts of many units has been reduced to well below nameplate capacity. We estimate that carrying out these major maintenance works could add 2GW or more to GECOL’s available capacity. Factors that have contributed to the growing backlog of overdue maintenance works include:  Overhauls of power generating units are considered a capital investment, and are therefore funded by the Libyan Development Budget, funded by the State. GECOL therefore does not have control of the supply of funds.  Most of GECOL’s generating units are gas turbines, which have a much higher maintenance requirement than steam turbines, with periodic inspections and major overhauls according the number of operating hours and operating conditions. These units could require a major overhaul as often as once every three to four years. With 50 gas turbines in service, GECOL may have to carry out as many as 10 to 15 major overhauls every year to maintain the condition of its units. This would require the government to budget more than 250 USD million every year just for overhauls.  GECOL has built up over the years a technical capacity to carry out much of the work in major overhauls. However, the specialized nature of major overhauls usually means that supervision by the generating units’ suppliers is also required to carry out the overhauls and to carry out some specialized works. Libya’s security and stability situation and the advice of foreign governments have meant that many suppliers do not permit their personnel to travel to Libya, impacting GECOL’s ability to carry out overhauls. Figure (1-1) shows the growing backlog in major overhauls GECOL is facing. Figure (1-1): Generating unit overhauls analysis 2010-2017 8  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 2. Fuel supply: Almost all GECOL’s power stations have been adversely affected by the supply of fuel in one way or another. Fuel affects power production by several means. Most critical is the very availability of fuel. Insecurity and instability in Libya have led to fuel sources supplying power plants being repeatedly cut off. However, this is only one aspect of the supply of fuel. Another is the growing dependence of power plants on gas as the primary operating fuel. Both the gas pipeline infrastructure and the production of natural gas are unable to keep up with demands. In several cases smaller or less important power generating units are being taken off line to ensure there is sufficient natural gas or sufficient pressure to keep the larger and more important units in operation. Similarly, less critical or less sensitive units are being switched to LFO operation so the more critical or sensitive units can operate on gas. This is despite the higher direct and indirect costs of using LFO. Several of the plants forced to operate on LFO do not have pipelines for the liquid fuel and have to be supplied by trucks, which is a logistical difficulty in itself. We estimate that GECOL regularly loses at least 600MW of its installed capacity because of constraints imposed by the supply of fuel. If GECOL did recover all capacity derated or put out of service because of maintenance problems, it is questionable if sufficient supplies of fuel could be secured to operate them all at full rating. 3. Third party power plants: There are two power stations owned by third parties that are connected to GECOL’s power grid. One is a steam power plant located outside Misurata and owned by the Libyan Iron and Steel Company with 504MW installed capacity, and the second a gas turbine plant located in the Sarir area and owned by the Man-made River Project Authority, with an installed capacity of 90MW.Both plants are old and require major overhauls. The capacity factor for the Misurata plant has been only 12.5% in both 2015 and 2016 while the Sarir plant has been a paltry 2.9% and 2.0% respectively. Since neither owner has taken to steps to overhaul and maintain the units of their power stations, it might be to GECOL’s advantage to arrange the overhauls of at least 2 to 3 of the units at the Misurata plant, thereby adding up to 250MW to the network available capacity. 4. Generation expansion plan: GECOL last carried out a major review of its load forecasts and generation expansion plans in 2007. Since then many factors have changed in the Libyan context. In addition, circumstances in Libya have led to several plants being contracted over the past years outside the original generation planning. It is therefore critical that GECOL carry out new load forecast studies and develop a new generation expansion plan as soon as possible. In line with currently expected new generation and the original expansion plan, we have come up with a worst case and best case scenario for the future growth of the GECOL’s generation and load expectations to 2030, as shown in Figures (1-2) and (1-3). We can see that in the worst case (Figure 1-2), with no additional generation other than what has currently been approved in Tripoli West, Tripoli East, Misurata and Tobruk, and completion of 9  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Ubari and Gulf power stations, as well as resolving the backlog of maintenance by 2024, power shortages will be resolved by 2021, but will come back between 2022 and 2026. This confirms the need for GECOL to proceed with planning and then contracting for new generating capacity, in addition to being aggressive in clearing its backlog of generation maintenance requirements. In the best case scenario (Figure 1-3), with the maintenance backlog cleared by 2019 and contracting for new generation by the early 2020’s, GECOL is able to meet the highest forecast load growth rate, but if no new generation is contracted, GECOL will begin facing new power shortages between 2024 and 2027 depending on the actual load growth rate. Figure (1-2): Available power generation against load forecasts – worst case Figure (1-3): Available power generation against load forecasts – best case 10  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 5. Staff development: GECOL has introduced a large number of new power generating units, and more are planned and expected over the next 2 to 3 years. However operations and maintenance staffing numbers in the Generation Department have not grown in line, nor have sufficient numbers of staff been trained to work on the new equipment coming into service. GECOL needs to implement a training program to better prepare its O&M staff to work with the new generating units and to develop a new generation of O&M personnel. Training should also focus on increasing capacities for the expected growth in major overhauls and other maintenance woks. 11  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 1.2 Transmission Libya has constructed a strong transmission system, with a 400kV backbone and 220kV main grid. Stringent design criteria were used to ensure a sufficient level of redundancy. The power of the transmission network was witnessed over the past seven years where, despite a large number of lines being damaged by armed conflict and vandalism, the transmission network has continued to be able to supply almost all load centers with their power requirements. Despite this resilience, the Transmission Department, like other business units in GECOL, is suffering from the reduced budgets, from difficult and at times dangerous work conditions, from scarcities in spare parts and equipment required to maintain key elements of the transmission system, and from delays in completing planned additions to the infrastructure such as new substations, overhead lines and cables. The main concerns we have noted in transmission include: 1. Damaged and old substations and switchgear: GECOL has 1 out of 14 400kV substations and 5 out of 86 220kV substation out of service, mostly due to damage by armed conflict and vandalism. GECOL also has some 18 220kV substations that require old 220kV, 66kV and/or 30kV switchgear to be replaced. The absence or age of these substations poses a threat to the stable and reliable operation of the power network. In addition, GECOL has a number of damaged 220kV power transformers. In addition to replacement or repair, the reason for failure of these transformers must be investigated to help prevent similar failures from happening in the future. We have also noted that substation battery systems do not last for their expected lifetimes and suggest battery maintenance needs to be improved and expanded. 2. Overhead lines maintenance and cleaning: GECOL has several overhead lines still damaged as a result of armed conflict in various parts of Libya, with most currently in the Benghazi Region. GECOL has been successful in repairing most line damage quickly after it happens, and a similar effort now needs to be made to repair the remaining overhead lines not in service. From the 1990s, GECOL has also improved the availability of its transmission overhead lines by instituting an annual cleaning program for the line insulator strings. Over the past few years it has been more difficult to carry out these annual cleaning works because of power network constraints making it difficult to switch off lines. Local security concerns have also been a factor in some cases. To maintain the transmission in a reliable working condition the line cleaning efforts should resume. Overhead line teams need to be equipped with the vehicles and equipment they need. In the longer term, GECOL can also consider moving towards live line maintenance and cleaning of the overhead lines. 3. Staff training and development: GECOL staff require additional training to deal with key aspects of the transmission systems, such as new DCS systems in modern 12  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE substations, in battery and DC system maintenance, to develop a new generation of overhead linesmen, and to maintain the skills of cable jointists. 13  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 1.3 Control GECOL has had control centers to monitor and control its generation plants and transmission system since the 1970s. The modern GECOL control infrastructure includes a National Control Center (NCC), two Regional Control Centers in Tripoli and Benghazi (TRCC and BRCC respectively), and Distribution Control Centers (DCC’s) around the country. By 2011, the NCC (based in Sirt with a backup in Tripoli) and TRCC were operational with full functionality and the BRCC was in progress of being replaced with a new system to unify the hardware and software base with the NCC and TRCC. A project was also underway to establish 10 new DCC’s that would provide modern control facilities to the Medium Voltage and Distribution networks. During the events of 2011 the NCC in Sirt was put out of service. DCC buildings and equipment were also damaged in several areas. The NCC moved to its back up system in Tripoli. Subsequent to 2011 the DCC project changed its focus to 5 of the original 10 control centers in relatively advanced degrees of progress and which could still be put in service. The Tripoli DCC was almost completely commissioned when work came to a stop again in 2014. Site tests had also started in Zawia and were planned for Benghazi. Upgrades were also arranged for the NCC and TRCC and commissioning tests for BRCC. Currently, we consider the main points of concern in the Control area to include: 1. NCC and TRCC: The hardware and software systems are now over 10 years old and need to urgently be upgraded. Network data at the control centers is very poor at only 20%. A concerted effort must be made resolve the problems in the substations and the communications network causing the deterioration in available data to the control engineers, without which they are very constrained in their ability to manage the power system. Particular effort must be made to repair the many fiber optics that are damaged and that carry the data between the control centers and the substations. The network is currently operating in a very stressed condition, and it is important to provide some spinning reserve to add to system security and stability. Also AGC functionality must be put back into operation. Finally, GECOL should proceed with establishing a new backup control center for the NCC outside Tripoli. 2. BRCC: Control engineers at the BRCC must contend with two separate control systems, an old one and a new one, neither of which is fully functional. It is therefore important to complete and commission the new control system and shift all control functions to it. Benghazi also suffers to similar data problems as the TRCC, with only a third of substation visible to the SCADA system and much data missing, and a similar plan of action is required to resolve the poor data situation. BRCC operators must also regain their control functionality over network switchgear and not be dependent on operators at each substation. 14  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 3. DCC’s: Project works have stopped since 2014. Contractual problems may require renegotiations or new contracts to be put in place, and GECOL should refocus on at least completing the initial 5 distribution control centers. 4. Staff and control functionality development: It is critical for GECOL to resume a project similar to that underway before 2011 with the French utility and consultant RTE, to both develop its control staff capabilities and skills and to develop the procedures, codes and regulations key in maintain a large and growing system such as GECOL’s under control and coordinated. 5. Load growth: Despite Libya’s instability and financial difficulties, consumer load has continued almost unrestrained at some 4% per year since 2011. GECOL should begin instituting demand side management programs to limit the future growth, especially when political and financial stability return and the economy begins to recover and grow, otherwise GECOL will be hard pressed to construct new generation capacity to keep up with the load demands. 15  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 1.4 Medium Voltage GECOL’s medium voltage networks spans almost 9000km of 30kV and 12000km of 66kV overhead lines and underground cables. The points of concern identified include: 1. Rising fault rates of 66kV and 30kv feeders: While fault rates were falling up to 2010, they began significantly increasing again since 2014. In particular fault rates of 30kV cables seem to be especially high. There appear to be several reasons behind these high fault rates, such us solidly earthed 30kV networks with the earthing resistors bypassed, incorrect bonding and sheath earthing of the 30kV cables, and bad handling and laying procedures during installations works of the cables. 2. Old substations and switchgear: The GECOL network includes old oil type circuit breaker and some newer vacuum type switchgear for which spare parts are no longer available, in total about 80 substations and 200 circuit breakers. These equipment need to be replaced as soon as possible to maintain the reliability of supply of the power system and safety of personnel of O&M personnel. 3. High transformer fault rates: Over 100 66kV and 30kV substation are operating with one transformer because of failure of the second transformer. Several reasons have been identified for these failures, including overvoltages during minimum load times because automatic voltage regulation is not put in automatic mode to maintain system voltage through the transformer on-load tap changers. Transformer oil is also topped up or filled without being treated first, allowing humidity to enter the transformer. Similarly the silica gel breathers may not be maintained to prevent humidity entering through the conservators. 4. Large amounts of materials for new substations and overhead lines, part of 66kV and 30kV development contracts that have stopped, are lying in various stores subject to poor storage conditions, vandalism and theft. If they are not utilized soon, their value could be lost to GECOL for ever. 5. Skills development: Staff need additional training and development in the areas of cable jointing and termination, DC supply systems and batteries, system and equipment earthing, transformer and preventive maintenance, and implementation and compliance with GECOL’s technical standards. 16  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 1.5 Distribution The GECOL Distribution system includes almost 95,000km of 11kV and LV lines and cables, as well as 70,000 11/0.4kV transformers and 12,000 switching stations and package substations or ring main units (RMUs). We have noted the following points of concern relating to these networks: 1. High failure rates of ground mounted and pole mounted distribution transformers: GECOL has amassed large numbers of faulty distribution transformers. These failures have been due to multiple factors, including network overvoltages during minimum load hours because AVR’s controlling on-load tap changers are left out of service or in manual position, thereby not acting to maintain a stable network voltage, overloaded transformers during peak load hours, poor ventilation of indoor transformers, lighting and surge protection not installed or incorrectly installed for outdoor transformers, unsafe and uncovered transformer bushings in many of the older ground mounted indoor transformers, as well as poor transformer maintenance and addition of untreated transformer oil. Set up of transformer repair workshops will help clear the large collection of faulty transformers and reduce the investments in new transformer supplies. 2. Old switchgear and ring main units, incorrectly installed equipment and modified switchboards: Old oil type switchgear and ring main units have come to represent a hazard to the safe and reliable operation of the distribution network and to operating staff. These need to be replaced with new vacuum based equipment as soon as possible. It has also been found that most ring main units are installed without the earthfault alarm and indication apparatus or it is not put in service. This results in repeated closures on to a fault as operations staff tries to identify the faulty section of a ring. In many stations the low voltage switchboard has also been modified, bypassing MCBs to avoid tripping of feeders subject to overloads. All these result in faults to network equipment, degradation of the distribution system and poor quality of supply to consumers. 3. High rate of serious and fatal accidents: The distribution department appears to have the highest accident rates in GECOL, too many of them serious to fatal. It is clear that there is ignorance of safe work procedures and compliance with safety rules. Staff are also not equipped with the necessary personal protective equipment that would help reduce the impact of accidents or prevent them. GECOL needs to work to instil a safety culture in the company and to provide the equipment and tools necessary to all staff, to renew its safety rules and ensure they are understood and complied with, and to develop and communicate a strong safety policy. 4. Skills development: Staff need additional training and development in the areas of DC supply systems and batteries, equipment earthing, transformer and preventive maintenance, implementation and compliance with GECOL’s technical standards, 17  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE and safe work procedures, risk assessment and mitigation and use of the correct personal protective equipment for work environment. 18  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 2 Introduction GECOL, The General Electricity Company of Libya, is a vertically integrated utility, the sole provider of electric power services in the country. The core business units of GECOL which cover its main technical activities are represented in its administrative structure by five General Departments: the Generation General Department, the Transmission General Department, the Medium Voltage General Department, the Distribution General Department, and the Control General Department. Libya has invested heavily in its electricity infrastructure over the past decades. Although these investments have been directly funded by the Libyan government through its development budget, GECOL has been the key player planning and orchestrating these investments. The combination of an oil rich nation with a policy of universal electrification and a power utility with stringent criteria on the expansion planning of its system, the result has been a robust power transmission network and ambitious undertaking of generation plant construction projects. On the other hand, the rapid growth of Libya’s population and expansion of its cities and towns has made it more difficult for the distribution system to keep up with the needs of the country. Despite large investments in equipment and networks, GECOL has not been able to keep up with the demands for new supply connections and upgrades to the existing networks as they no longer meet the requirements of their load centers. Since the popular uprising of February 17, 2011, GECOL’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse, and this is reflected in the operation of its core business units and of the Libyan electricity infrastructure. Insecurity and political instability have led to a halt in most projects, successive assaults on GECOL assets and staff, a large increase in thefts, especially of conductors and electrical apparatus, and a significant decline in GECOL’s ability to carry out maintenance activities. The result has been loss of some infrastructure assets, a fall in the performance of the power network, and a severe shortage in power generation capacity causing long power cuts in many parts of the country, especially during the summer and winter peak load periods. The impact on Libyan electricity supply is reflected in the Global Competitiveness Reports issued by the World Economic Forum (WEF). These annual reports assess the competitive stance of nations through analysis of a multitude of factors, including quality of electricity supply. Over the years, Libya’s electricity supply has been ranked1: - 2008: 71st out of 134 countries (4.6 points out of 7) - 2009: 63rd out of 133 countries (4.9 points out of 7) 1 The WEF Global Competitiveness Report assesses quality of electricity supply on the lack of fluctuations ad lack of interruptions. Data was collected through surveys of businessmen in Libya. Libya was not included in the 2011 report for lack of data and has not been included in the reports issued after 2014. 19  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE - 2010: 81st out of 139 countries (4.3 points out of 7) - 2012: 85th out of 144 countries (4.3 points out of 7) - 2013: 96th out of 148 countries (3.9 points out of 7) - 2014: 116th out of 144 countries (2.8 points out of 7) In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that only the redundancies built into the Libyan power network and the resilient specifications and design of its systems and components, coupled with what can only be described as heroic efforts by many of GECOL’s workforce, has prevented the collapse of the power network and ensured continued supply of power to the majority of the population the majority of the time. At the same time, Libya has recognized deficiencies in its education system. Libya has one of the highest literacy rates in the MENA region and among developing countries, but the quality of education provided and the ability of graduates to meet the needs of potential employers are inadequate. The latest World Economic Forum’s 2014 Global Competitiveness Report has ranked Libya’s education system 144th out of 144 countries, assigning it 1.9 points out of a possible 7 points. Historically, the highest Libya has scored has been a rank of 121 and a score of 2.6 out of 7. GECOL is greatly overstaffed as a company, but there are large deficiencies in the capable technical personnel necessary to carry out the core business activities. GECOL has had to rely on its own training programs, training as part of new infrastructure projects, and on-the-job training to develop its technical staff, with inconsistent results. This is further compounded by the large geographic area of Libya and over the whole of which GECOL must deliver its services. This report aims to assess GECOL power system assets, to determine their current capabilities and requirements, and to propose an action plan to GECOL on how to recover and improve its technical activities and services. This will be done with a focus on each of GECOL’s technical business units. This report will focus on the current state of GECOL’s system and business units and looks forward to what can be achieved. Historical data will be considered only in so far as it gives perspective and understanding and helps plan the future development of GECOL. Each of GECOL’s technical business units divides its activities into a different number and distribution of geographic regions as is best suited to its functions. To provide unity to this report, while deriving the benefits of regional division and allocation of assets and operations, we have used the following geographic regions in our analysis of GECOL: Western region: The area extending west along the coast from Greater Tripoli to the Tunisian border and southwards to include the Nefousa (Western) Mountains. Major urban areas include Zawiya, Gharyan and Ghadames. 20  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Tripoli region: The area covered by the Greater Tripoli Municipality. The main urban area is Tripoli and its suburbs. Central region: The area east of Greater Tripoli and extending along the coast to include the Sirt Municipality up to the town of Ras Lanuf, and southwards to include the Houn Municipality. The main urban areas are Khums, Misurata, Sirt, Beni Walid and Houn. Southern Region: The desert area south of the Nafousa Mountain and Houn Municipality, up to the Algeria, Niger, and Chad borders. The main urban areas are Sabha, Ubari and Ghat. Wahat region: The area extending from the Agedabia Municipality along the coast southwards to the Chad, Sudan and Egyptian borders. The main urban areas are Agedabia, Jalo and Kufra. Benghazi region: The area covered by the Greater Benghazi Municipality. The main urban area is Benghazi and its suburbs. Eastern region: The area east of Benghazi extending to the Egyptian border. The main urban areas are Marj, Beida, Derna and Tobruk. Regardless of what is presented in this report, we should point out that GECOL is not standing still. GECOL is itself making great efforts to resolve its many problems and to deal with the obstacles and difficulties the current Libyan political and security situation has created. GECOL has also continued to expand and grow its power network despite the cessation of most other project activities in Libya and general financing difficulties. Just at the transmission level and the first half of 2017 GECOL has:  Brought online 2 new gas turbine unit (Khoms Fast Track and Tripoli West)  Completed a major overhaul and put back in service Unit 5 and Western Mountain Power Station  Put in service 4 new 30kV overhead lines  Put in service 3 new 220/30kV and 220/66kV transformers  Put in service 4 new 30/11kV transformer While we commend GECOL on its continued efforts and activities under the most adverse conditions, these accomplishments represent only a fraction of what is needed for GECOL to meet its obligations towards the electricity consumers in Libya. This report does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis of every aspect of GECOL’s technical activities, nor is it re-inventing the wheel. The data and information in this report have been collected with the strong and total support and assistance of GECOL’s management and staff, whom we thank profusely. Thus, the details and results of the study are not new material and are already well known to GECOL and its management, who are working hard at resolving the issues discussed. This report attempts to present new 21  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE perspectives on these issues, to highlight priorities and some of the urgent actions needed, and help to GECOL in the decision-making process. It is our sincere hope we have been at least partly successful in achieving these aims. 22  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Figure (2-1): Geographic regions used for GECOL’s electricity assets and services 23  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE 3 Generation 3.1 Current status 3.1.1 Overview To assess GECOL’s generation assets, we have collected data from GECOL’s Generation General Department and from the Control General Department, made site visits to Tripoli South, Khoms and Benghazi North Power Stations , and had discussions and interviews with GECOL management at various levels. Depending on how they are tabulated, GECOL has some 26 power stations containing 85 generating units of various sizes, technologies and ages distributed around Libya, with the majority along Libya’s Mediterranean coastline. Figure (3-1) shows the geographic location of GECOL’s generation assets and Tables (3-1) and (3-2) present a summary of the GECOL power plants and their main data. Figure (3-1): Location of GECOL generation plants 24  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Recently GECOL has carried out a review and revision of the power plants it categorizes as “in service”, and has officially confirmed an installed capacity of 10.238GW for the year 2017. Of this installed capacity, the actual available capacity is a fluid concept that varies continuously as maintenance, fuel and other factors reduce some units’ power capability and other units are taken out of service or brought back into service due to maintenance activities. The variations in plant availability is clear from Figure (3-2), which is derived from GECOL’s General Control Department quarterly reports for 2015 and 2016. Our survey shows an available capacity during the July/August period of 2017 (updated in November 2017 to reflect units with significant change to status) of around 5.345GW, representing 52% of the installed capacity. Figure (3-2): Availability of different types of generation, from GECOL Control reports Based on a review of the conditions of GECOL generation assets, it is our opinion that at least 19 units aged between 33 and 46 years (shown shaded in Table 3-1) are also ready for retirement and should not be considered part of GECOL’s installed capacity, and we have not included these units in this assessment. The excluded units from Table (3-1) are: Misurata Gas Turbine Power Plant, 4x15MW, in service since 1984 Abu Kamash Gas Turbine Power Plant, 1x15MW, in service since 1982 Benghazi North Steam Power Plant, 2x40MW, in service since 1978 Tripoli West Steam Power Plant, 2x65MW, in service since 1976 Lamluda Gas Turbine Power Plant, 1x33MW, in service since 1975 Zliten Gas Turbine Power Plant, 3x15MW, in service since 1975 Tripoli South Gas Turbine Power Plant, 2x30MW, in service since 1972 Furnaj Gas Turbine Power Plant, 2x15MW, in service since 1971 Zahra Gas Turbine Power Plant, 2x15MW, in service since 1971 We note that all these plants do not currently contribute any generation capacity, i.e. they are all out of service for various reasons, and therefore are not producing power. 25  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Excluding these generating units leaves 18 “main” power stations with 66 generating units and an installed capacity of 9.755GW. The 5.345GW available capacity now represents 54.8%. In Table (3-2), 2010 has been taken as a reference year, being the last in which operation of GECOL network may be considered “normal”. 2013 was taken as a comparison year during which many activities had begun to return to a form of normality after the events of 2011, and 2016 reflects the current status of GECOL’s assets. Figures (3-3), (3-4) and (3-5) represent GECOL’s installed and available capacities and their distribution over Libya’s geographic regions, their split between generation technologies, and by age of units. Figure (3-3): GECOL generation by region (mid 2017) 26  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Table (3-1): GECOL power plants and generating units sorted by age - general data as at mid 2017 27  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Table (3-2): GECOL power plants sorted by age - operational data 2010, 2013, 2016 28  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE Figure (3-4): GECOL generation by technology (mid 2017) Figure (3-5): GECOL generation by age (mid 2017) Figure (3-2) shows that there is a fairly reasonable distribution of generation geographically around Libya, with the following reservations:  There is no generation in the Southern region. As a result this region has faced extensive and prolonged power outages compared with other parts of Libya, as well as voltage instabilities over the past few years. The new Ubari power Station is expected to be commissioned by the end of 2017 or early 2018 and should be an important factor in solving the Southern region’s problems. 29  TASK C – REPORT 4.2: IMPROVING GECOL TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE  The generation in the Eastern Region is limited to two aging steam power plants, both over 30 years old. Their generating units are severely downrated or out of service pending major overhauls. The absence of any significant generation in the Eastern Region and the region’s dependence on the Benghazi North power plant as the sole source of energy when the eastern and western power networks were isolated was the major reason for successive blackouts over most of the eastern towns and cities. There have been calls and plans for a new power plant in Tobruk for many years, but it is only recently, as detailed in the section on Generation Expansion, that any progress appears to have been made. It is now expected that a new plant in Tobruk will be contracted and be in operation around 2020/2021. Figure (3-3) shows that there is a very large imbalance in generation units in favour of gas turbines. The bulk of GECOL’s generation is currently simple or combined cycle gas turbines. This, despite the higher operating costs and maintenance requirements of these gas turbines. As will be discussed later, much of GECOL’s current shortage in generation is because GECOL has not been able to keep up with the inspection and overhaul schedules of its gas turbine units. This has led to many units either being completely out of service or operating but with reduced power capabilities. The disparity in generation technologies is further reinforced in Figure (3-4) which shows that almost all GECOL’s steam power plants are over 30 years old. In fact, the new Gulf (Khaleej) Power Station is the first and thus far only steam power station to be contracted by GECOL since the early 1980’s. GECOL has been operating its power stations since 2011 under some extremely adverse conditions. The effect is clearly seen in the operational data. The weighted average time availability2 of power generating units has fallen from 78.3% in 2010 to 66.0% in 2016, despite Khoms Gas 1, Khoms Steam and Misurata Combined Cycle plants having availabilities exceeding 90%. Similarly, the average weighted capacity factor3has fallen from 45.6% in 2010 to 44.3% in 2016, this despite the fact that all available units are being treated as base load because of the power shortage, operating at full available capacity throughout the day over much of the year, although this will explain why the change in capacity factor has been so small. The most striking indication of the situation GECOL’s power plants face is the available capacity of power generation compared with the installed capacity. This fell from 64.6% in 2 Availability was calculated based on the operating hours of each unit at the power station over the year ∑