Greater Mumbai report

Urban Air Quality Management Strategy in Asia A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ UKEXX~~ 263047 Greater Mumbai Report October 1996 /e1 FILE C_P Metropolitan Environmental Improvement Program A World Bank Initiative   URBAIR URBAN AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY IN ASIA GREATER MUMBAI REPORT Prepared by Steinar Larssen, Frederick Gram, and Leif Otto Hagen Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) Kjeller, Norway Huib Jansen and Xander Olsthoorn Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands Rajiv V. Aundhe and Ulhas Joglekar ADITYA Environmental Services Mumbai, India Edited by Jitendra Shah and Tanvi Nagpal The World Bank Washington, DC  C 1996 The International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America First printing January 1997 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this study are entirely those of the authors of this study, and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of its use. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of the readers; the designations and presentation of material in them does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its board or member countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area of the authorities thereof or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation. Likewise, the material in this report should not be attributed in any manner whatsoever to government, non-governmental organizations, or any other institutions or individuals who participated in the URBAIR studies and related workshops and meetings. The cover design is by Beni Chibber-Rao, Graphic and Map Design Section, General Services Department, The World Bank. The layout is by Julia Lutz, Environment and Natural Resources Division, Asia Technical Department, The World Bank.  LETTER FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF MAHARASHTRA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT MUMBAI, INDIA Many Asian cities are on the threshold of a major environmental crisis in the form of air pollution The deteriorating air quality in cities is a result of rapid economic expansion, rise in population, increased industrial output and unprecedented growth of passenger vehicles The impact of air pollution on public health and consequent rising health costs, damage to ecological and cultural properties, deterioration of built environment, etc is well known In Mumbai (Bombay) the main contributor of air pollution is the transport sector, followed by power plants, industrial units and burning of garbage. Fuel quality and engine conditions significantly influence the level of air pollution To arrest this growing problem, a concerted effort with public involvement is essential Awareness of the issue, proactive policies, economically affordable standards and technologies and effective enforcement are key elements in any effective air quality management strategy A long- term perspective shows that early adoption of policies for environmentally safer technologies can allow developing countries to resolve some of the most difficult problems of industrialization and growth at lower human and economic cost Mumbai (Bombay) joined the World Bank-aided Metropolitan Environmental Improvement Program (MEIP) in 1990. At the Inter-country workshop held in Hawaii in 1990, the cities facing air pollution problems sought MEIP intervention to assist in finding solutions. In response to this, Urban Air Quality Management Initiative (URBAIR) was conceived and launched in Mumbai (Bombay) in 1992 URBAIR has assisted the Environment Department, Government of Maharashtra to develop a strategy and time-bound action plan for air quality management in Mumbai (Bombay) For the first time, it brought together the different stakeholders -- sectoral agencies, private sector, NGOs, academics, research bodies and media to formulate a strategy This group was met as a Technical Committee which deliberated over several months with support provided by a team of national and international experts The outcome is the Action Plan that is presented here The result is quite impressive and I believe that the Action Plan will catalyze continuous and sustained effort by all the concerned agencies which is absolutely essential to improve the ambient air quality of Mumbai (Bombay) The State Government through its various agencies will wholeheartedly participate and extend necessary support for the implementation of the plan We will welcome the support of the international community in realizing the goals of the plan I would like to record our appreciation for the contributions made by various agencies in the development of the strategy and plan, especially to MEIP for facilitating the process ASOKE BASAK Secretary to Government of Maharashtra Environment Department Mumbai, India  PARTNERS AND CONTRIBUTORS We would like to acknowledge the groups and individuals who contributed to this report and the URBAIR process Core funds were provided by the United Nations Development Program, the Australian Agency for International Development, the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Consultant Trust Funds, and the Netherlands Consultant Trust Funds Substantial inputs were provided by host governments and city administrations City studies were conducted by consultants from the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) in Kjeller, Norway, and the Institute of Environmental Studies (IES) at the Free University in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, with assistance from local consultants in Mumbai: K H. Mehta, MiPCB, ADITYA Environmental Services, represented by U Joglekar and R Aundhe, and A.A Mahashur, KEM Hospital The city-level technical working groups and the steering committee members gave policy direction to the study team. The National Program Coordinator (NPC) of MEIP - Mumbai, G N Warade provided substantial contribution to the successful outcomes. At the World Bank's Environment and Natural Resources Division, Asia Technical Department, URBAIR was managed by Jitendra Shah, Katsunori Suzuki, and Patchamuthu Illangovan, under the advice and guidance of Maritta Koch-Weser, Division Chief and David Williams, MiEIP Project Manager Colleagues from Country Departments (Robert Bums, Richard Cambridge, Harald Hansen, and Peter Nicholas) assisted with the program Management support was provided by Sonia Kapoor, Ronald Waas, and Erika Yanick. Tanvi Nagpal was responsible for quality assurance, technical accuracy, and final production Sheldon Lippman and Nicole Schofer provided editorial support Many international institutions (World Health Organization United States Environmental Protection Agency, United States Asia Environmental Partnership) provided valuable contribution through their participation at the workshops Their contribution made at the workshop discussions and follow-up correspondence and discussions has been very valuable for the result of the project Mumbai URBAIR working groups consisted of the following individuals Working Group I for Air Quality Assessment Head: Mr V S Mahajan, Deputy City Engineer, Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai Members Name Organization Category Dr. K.S V. Nambi Bhabha Atomic Research Centre Govt Dr T N Mahadevan Bhabha Atomic Research Centre Govt Dr S. Kumar India Meteorological Department Govt Mr. K S Sonawane Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai Govt Undertaking Mr S B Patil Maharashtra Pollution Control Board Govt Undertaking Dr V.N Patkar Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority Govt Undertaking Mr B S Negi Gas Authonty of India Ltd. Govt Undertaking iv  URBAIR-Bombay v Mr S. Arceivala Associated Industnal Consultants (India) Pvt Ltd Consultant Mr A.K Sahu Econ Pollution Control Pvt Ltd Consultant Mr S V Athavale Apte Consulting Engineers Consultant Mr R.V. Aundhe ADITYA Environmental Services Consultant Mr Mr K Mohan Rashtnya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd Industry Dr (Ms) R S Patil Indian Institute of Technology Insttution Dr V Joshi National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) Institubon Working Group HIfor Economic Valuation Head Dr A A Mahashur, Prof & Head-Dept. of Chest Medicine, KEM Hospital, Municipal Corp of Greater Mumbai Members Name Organization Category Dr V N Bapat Bhabha Atomic Research Centre Govt Ms S S Bhende Maharashtra Pollution Control Board Govt Undertaking Dr (Ms) B S Sanghani King Edward Memorial Hospital, Municipal Corporation of Greater Govt Undertaking Mumbai Dr (Ms) Nandita Sen Non-Govt Organizabon Dr V G Shirke " Non-Govt Organization Dr S R Kamat " Non-Govt Organization Ms J P. Rezler Coopers & Lybrand, U K Consultant Mr M G Rao Rashtnya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd Industry Dr S.R Asolekar Indian Institute of Technology Institution Dr V K Sharma Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Institution Mr S Ramaswamy Mumbai Chamber of Commerce & Industry Associabon Working Group III for Institutional & Policy Instruments Head Mr UK Mukhopadhyay, Secretary, Environment Dept & Chairman, Tech. Committee-MEIP Members Name Organization Category Captain P G Deshmukh Transport Department Govt Dr P S. Pasncha Police Department (Traffic) Govt Mr G N Warade Environment Department Govt Mr D.R. Rasal Maharashtra Pollution Control Board Govt Undertaking Mr V. K, Phatak Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authonty Govt Undertaking Mr Debi Goenka Mumbai Environmental Action Group Non-Govt Organization Mr A M Ranu Environmental Medical Association of India Non-Govt Organization Dr Rashmi Mayur Urban Development Institute Non-Govt Organization Dr T R Saranathan Society for Clean Environment Non-Govt Organizabon Mr Bittu Saigal Mumbai Natural History Society Non-Govt Organization Mr B V Rotkar Associated Industnal Consultants (India) Pvt Ltd Consultant Dr (Ms) P P Parikh Indian Institute of Technology Institution Dr Prasad Modak Indian Institute of Technology Institution Dr S G Advani Indian Chemical Manufacturers Association Association/lndustry Dr Dharmarajan The Times of India Press  ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AADT annual average daily traffic MTBE Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether AQG air quality guidelines MTNL Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd AQIS Air Quality Information System NEERI National Engineering and AQMS Air Quality Management System Environmental Research Institute BARC Bhabha Atomic Research Centre NGO non-government organization BEST Bombay Electric Supply & NH3 ammonia Transport Undertaking NOX nitrogen oxides BIS Bureau of Indian Standards NPC National Program Coordinator BMRDA Bombay Metropolitan Region ONGC Oil & Natural Gas Commission Development Authority PM particulate matter CNG compressed natural gas PM10 particulate matter of 10 microns or CO carbon monoxide less CDC Centers for Disease Control PPM parts per million CPCB Central Pollution Control Board PCRA Petroleum Conservation Research DOE Department of Environment Association FO fuel Oil, furnace Oil RAD restricted activity days GALL Gas Authority of India Ltd REA respiratory hospital admissions GDP Gross Domestic Product RON research octane number GEMS Global Environmental Monitoring RPM respirable particles System RTO Regional Transport Office HSD high speed diesel SKO kerosene UP Indian Institute of Petroleum SO2 sulfur dioxide HT Indian Institute of Technology SSI small scale industries IMD India Meteorology Department TSP total suspended particles LDO light diesel oil UNDP United Nations Development LPG liquid petroleum gas Programme LSHS low sulfur high stock URBAIR Urban Air Quality Management MCGB Municipal Council of Greater Strategy Bombay USEPA United States Environmental MEDA Maharashtra Energy and Protection Agency Development Authority VSL value of statistical life MEIP Metropolitan Environmental WHO World Health Organization Improvement Program WLD work loss days ~tg micrograms (10-6 grams) WTP willingness to pay mg milligrams (l0' grams) MOEF Ministry of Environment and Note: Except as indicated, "dollars" refers Forests to 1992/93 U S dollars MPCB Maharashtra Pollution Control Board vi  TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD ......................................................... iii PARTNERS AND CONTRIBUTORS .......................................................... V ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .......................................................... vi PREFACE .......................................................... ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..........................................................1 1. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ......................................................... 5 1 1 SCOPE OF TBE STUDY ........5 1.2 GENERAL DESCRIPTON OF GREATER BOMBAY . ..5 1 3 DATA SOURCES.... . ... .... . 7 1 4 THE GROWTH OF BOMBAY. 1981-1991 ..........7 1 5 POPULATION...... .........9 1 6 VEHICLE FLEET. . .....9 1.7. ROAD AND TRANSPORT... . . .... 10 1 8 INDUSTRIAL SOURCES.......... 11 1 9 FUIELCONSUMPTON. 12 1 10. AREA SOURCES ...14 2. AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT . . . ........................ 15 2 1 AIR POLLUTION CONCENTRATIONS . . . .15 2.2 AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS IN GREATER BOMBAY 19 2.3 DISPERSION MODEL CALCULATIONS FOR GREATER BOMBAY .. . 26 2 3 1. Dispersion conditions ...................2.............. ...... ......................... ........... 26 2.3.2. Dispersion model calczulations, city hackground .............. ............................... 29 2.3.3. Pollution hot spots .......................................... 31 2 4 POPULATION EXPOSURE TO AIR POLLUTION IN GREATER BOMBAY.. .35 2.5 SUMMARY OF TIE AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT.. 37 2 6 IMPROVING AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT FOR GREATER BOMBAY. 38 2 6 1. Shortcomings and data gaps .................8............................ 38 2.6.2. Proposed Actions to improve Air Quality Assessment ..... . .. ........ .... ... ...... 40 3. AI;R POLLUTION: IMPACTS AND VALUATION .................................................... 41 3 1 INTRODUCTION.. ... .. . ... . . 41 3 2 SUMMARY OF STUDIES BY ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUITON RESEARCH CENTER. (KEM HOSPITAL. BONMAY) 41 3 3 MORTALITY 46 3 4 MORBIDITY . . ....47 3 5 VALUATION OF HEALTH IMPACTS.. . . . . 48 3 6 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . 49 vil  Viii 4. ABATEMENT MEASURES: EFFECTIVENESS AND COSTS .................. ................... 51 4 1 INTTRODUCTION. . 51 4 2 TRAFFIC .. 51 4.2.. Introducing nleaded gasoline ............................................... 52 4.2.2. Improving diesel quality .5.............................................. 3 4.2.3 Introduction of low-snmoke lhbricating oilfor two-stroke, mixed-lubrication eng7nes54 4.2.4. Implementation of an inspection and maintenance scheme ......... ......................... 55 4.2.5. Address the problem of excessively polluting vehicles ........................................... 55 4.2.6. Fuel switching in the transportation sector . . ............................................. 56 4.2.7. Adoption of clean vehicle enmission standards. . . . 57 4.2.8. Other Options. .......................... ............................................................ 58 4.2.9. Resuspension emission .......................... 59 4.2.10 Improving traffic management . ......................... . .59 4.2. 1 1. Construction and improvement /f mass-transit systemss .................. .................. 59 4 3 LARGE POINT SOURCES .......60 4 4. DISTRIBUTED INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL SOURCES... 60 4 5. REFUSE BURNINGAND DOMESIC EMISSIONS ... 60 4 6 CONCLUSIONS 60 5. ACTION PLAN ....................................................... 62 5 1. ACONS TO IMPROVE GREATER BOMBAY AIR QUALITY. AND ITS MANAGEMENT. 62 5. 1. 1. Actions lo improve air quality .. .. ......................................................... 62 5.1.2. Actions to improve the Air Quality Management Syslem ...............64.............. .. 64 6. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................... 73 6.1 ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTIONS iN BOMBAY 73 6 2 AIR POLLUTION LEGISLATION.. . 73 6. 2.1. The Laws and Regulations for Air Environment ..................................... .... 75 6.2.2. Air pollution slandards and regulations ............................................. 76 6 3 SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVING INSTITUTIONS AND POLICIES. . 78 7. REFERENCES ...................................................... 80 APPENDIX 1: AIR QUALITY STATUS, GREATER BOMBAY APPENDIX 2: AIR QUALITY GUIDELINES APPENDIX 3: AIR POLLUTION LAWS AND REGULATION FOR INDIA AND BOMBAY APPENDIX 4: EMISSIONS INVENTORY APPENDIX 5: EMISSIONS FACTORS, PARTICLES APPENDIX 6: POPULATION EXPOSURE CALCULATIONS APPENDIX 7: SPREADSHEET FOR CALCULATING EFFECTS OF CONTROL MEASURES ON EMISSIONS APPENDIX 8: PROJECT DESCRIPTIONS, LOCAL CONSULTANTS  PREFACE While the consultants and the World Bank recognize the change of name to Mumbai, the city name Bombay is used in this study to more accurately reflect the data collection and the time period during which this study was conducted. In view of the potential environmental consequences of continuing growth of Asian metropolitan areas, the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) launched the Metropolitan Environmental Improvement Program (MEIP) in five Asian metropolitan areas. Beijing, Bombay, Colombo, Jakarta, and Metro Manila In 1993, Kathmandu joined the intercountry program as the sixth MEIP city MfEWP's mission is to assist Asian urban areas tackle their rapidly growing environmental problems. Presently, MEIP is supported by the governments of Australia, Netherlands and Belgium Recognizing the growing severity of air pollution caused by industrial expansion and increasing vehicle population, the World Bank started the Urban Air Quality Management Strategy (URBAIR) in 1992 as a part of MEIP The first phase of URBAIR covered four cities Bombay, Jakarta, Kathmandu, and Metro Manila. URBAIR is an international collaborative effort involving governments, academia, international organizations, NGOs, and the private sector The main objective of URBAIR is to assist local institutions in developing action plans which would be an integral part of the air quality management system (AQMS) for the metropolitan regions. The approach used to achieve this objective involves the assessment of air quality and environmental damage (e g on health and materials), the assessment of control options, and comparison of costs of damage and costs of control options (cost-benefit or cost- effectiveness analysis). From this, an action plan can be set up containing the selected abatement measures for implementation in the short, medium, or long term The preparation of this city-specific report for Bombay is based on data collected and specific studies carried out by local consultants, and on workshops and fact-finding missions carried out in April and August 1993, and May 1994. A first draft of the report was prepared by Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) and Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM, Institute for Environmental Studies) before the first workshop based upon general and city-specific information available from earlier studies A second draft report was prepared before the second workshop with substantial inputs from the local consultants and assessment of air quality, damage and control options, and cost analysis carried out by NILU and IES The report concludes with an action plan for air pollution abatement produced by the local working groups as a result of the deliberations and dtscussions before, during and after the second workshop NILU and IES carried out cost/benefit analysis of some selected abatement measures, showing the economic viability of many of the technical control options It is expected that the local institutions, based on the results of this analysis report and action plan, will formulate a prioritized strategy for improving Bombay air quality in the short, medium and long term This prioritized action plan is expected to be the basis for the air quality work of the municipal authorities in developing a control strategy and an investment plan ix  x The participating institutions and agencies from Bombay were as follows Government: Nodal Organizations/Departments * Department of Environment (DOE) Govt of India * Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB) * Municipal Corporation of Greater Bombay (MCGB) * Bombay Metropolitan Regional Development Authority (BMRDA) * Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC). * India Meteorological Department (IND). * Traffic Commissioner * Transport Department, Govt of Maharashtra. Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) * Bombay Environmental Action Group (BEAG) * Save Bombay Committee * Environmental Medical Association of India (EMAI). * Urban Development Institute (UDI) * Society for Clean Environment (SOCLEEN) * Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS). Institutions * Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) * Indira Gandhi Institute of Developmental Research (IGIDR) * National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) Industries * Rashtriya Chemical & Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF). * Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) * Indian Chemical Manufacturers Association (ICMA) * Bombay Chamber of Commerce & Industries Consultants * ADITYA Environmental Services * Associated Industrial Consultants now AIC Watson Pvt Ltd * Coopers & Lybrand, U K * Econ Pollution Pvt Ltd. * Apte Consulting Engineers Pvt Ltd Press * The Times of India  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY URBAIR-GREATER MUMIBAI (BOMBAY). Larger and more diverse cities are a sign of Asia's increasingly dynamic economies Yet this growth has come at a cost Swelling urban populations and increased concentration of industry and automotive traffic in cities has resulted in severe air pollution. Emissions from automobiles and factories, domestic heating, cooking and refuse burning are threatening the well being of city dwellers, imposing not just a direct economic cost on human health but also threatening long-term productivity Governments, businesses, and communities face the daunting yet urgent task of improving their environment and preventing further air quality deterioration Urban Air Quality Management Strategy or URBAIR aims to assist in the design and implementation of policies, monitoring and management tools to restore air quality in the major Asian metropolitan areas At several workshops and working group meetings, government, industry, local researchers, non-governmental organizations, international and local experts reviewed air quality data and designed action plans These plans take into account economic costs and benefits of air pollution abatement measures This report focuses on the development of an air quality management system for Greater Mumbai (Bombay) and the resulting action plan THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER BOMBAY AND ITS POLLUTION PROBLEM Greater Bombay's population grew by 38 percent from 1971 to 1981, and another 20 percent between 1981 and 1991 to reach 9 9 million This growth was accompanied by an increase in the per capita gross domestic product. Expansion of industries, increased foundry production, and a 103 percent increase in vehicles has led to a severe air pollution problem in the city. Annual average Total Suspended Particles (TSP) concentration has increased from about 180 utg/m3 (particles per cubic meter) to approximately 2701tg/m3 between 1981 and 1990--an increase of almost 50 percent Nitrous Oxide (NOJ) increased by about 25 percent, while sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations declined due to increased use of natural gas and low-sulfur coal The average lead (Pb) concentrations doubled from 1980 to 1987 In general, SO2 and NO2 pollution is not as serious an issue as TSP and PM10 concentrations The total annual emissions of TSP and PM1O are estimated at 32,000 and 16,000 tons/year. The resulting annual average ambient concentration varies from 118 to 313 Wtg/m3 at various locations World Health Organization's Air Quality Guideline (WHO AQG), as well as the National guideline for PMIO are frequently and substantially exceeded in Bombay, 97 percent of the population lives in areas where WHO AQG is exceeded TSP exposure is mainly due to resuspension from roads caused by vehicles (20%), emissions from diesel and gasoline vehicles (30%), domestic wood and refuse burning (15%) and others (3 5%) Drivers, roadside residents and those who live near large sources are most severely affected Studies conducted between 1976 and 1990 conclude that growing concentrations of air pollutants have led to increased cases of chronic bronchitis, colds, and general decline in lung  2 Executive Summary functions. A 1990 study observed that incidence of different respiratory symptoms and cardiac diseases, respiratory tract infections, and skin allergies was 5 to 10 percent higher in communities near factories in Chembur. Similarly, a study of two high density traffic areas in Bombay found a significant correlation between concentrations of air pollutants and frequency of colds and attacks of breathlessness. Past studies, as well as anecdotal evidence, suggest that Greater Bombay residents' health, especially in high density traffic areas or near industries, is under assault. The health impact is estimated at 2,800 cases of excess mortality, 60 million respiratory symptom days, and 19 million restricted activity days, with an estimated health damage cost of Rs 1 8 billion, per year. CONCEPT OF AN AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Assessment of pollution, and its Figure ES.1: Air Quality Management System control, form two prongs of an Air Quality Management Dispersion System (AQMS). modeling Monitoring These components are inputs into a cost- _ Il benefit analysis. Air Emissions A-rpQutlit quality guidelines or concentrations standards, and economic objectives and constraints also Abatement Control Exposure guide the cost-benefit measures & options assessment calculation. (See regulations Figure ES. 1) An Action Plan contains C Damage the optimum set of Cost analysis assessment abatement and control measures for short-, medium- and long- term enactment. Successful AQMS requires the establishment of an integrated system for continual air quality monitoring. Such a system involves: * An inventory of air pollution activities and emissions; * Monitoring of air pollution and dispersion parameters; * Calculation of air pollution concentrations by dispersion models; * Inventory of population, building materials and planned urban development; * Calculation of the effect of abatement/control measures; and * Establishment/improvement of air pollution regulations. In order to ensure that an AQMS is having the desired impact, it is necessary to carry out surveillance or monitoring. This requires the establishment of an Air Quality Information System  URBAIR-Bombay 3 (AQIS) to inform authorities and the general public about air quality and assess results of abatement measures AQIS should also provide continuous feedback to the abatement process ABATEMENT MEASURES AND ACTION PLAN Measures to reduce air pollution in Bombay focus on traffic. Traffic emissions are a clear and major source of air pollution exposure Abatement measures which address other important pollution sources including refuse and wood burning and resuspension of road dust could not be addressed due to lack of data While pollution control in industrial areas has not been discussed at length, it must also be promoted through enforcement and regulation Based on abatement measures, an Action Plan was designed through a consultative process with Bombay URBAIR working groups, the Municipal Council of Greater Bombay, Maharashtra Pollution Control Board, the Transport Commissioner, and local and foreign experts. See Table ES 1 for estimated costs and benefits of these measures Recommended actions fall under two categories (1) technical and other measures that will reduce exposure to and damage from pollution, and (2) improvements in the database and in the regulatory and institutional basis required to establish an operative system for air quality management in Greater Bombay. It is proposed that the following technical and policy measures be given priority. * Address gross polluters Existing smoke opacity regulations for diesel vehicles must be strictly enforced Successful action depends on routine maintenance and adjustment of engines * Clean vehicle emission standard Establish state-of-the-art emission standards for gasoline cars, diesel vehicles, and motorcycles Such standards would be better enforced with the assured availability of lead-free gasoline, at prices below that of leaded gasoline * Switch to unleaded gasoline This is an early prerequisite for clean vehicle standards. The health benefits stemming from this action would be substantial. Table ES. 1: Action Plan of abatement measures, Greater Bombay, based on cost-benefit analysis. Abatement Avoided Mortality Reduced Annual Annual measure emissions reduction RSD health benefits costs tons million million Rs million Rs PMlolyr days Vehicles Unleaded gasoline ^ ' * * 250-360 Low-smoke, lub oil, 2-stroke 450 65 1 5 150 30 lnspection/maintenance 800 110 2.5 250 150-300 Gross polluters 400 50 1 2 125 * Clean vehicle standards -cars and vans 400 50 1.2 125 750 - motor-, tricycles 750 100 2 4 250 600 Diesel quality 250 35 0 75 80 300 CNG replace gasoline 50% 200 25 06 75 * Fuel combustion Cleaner fuel oil (to 2% S) 150 22 05 50 450 # Time frame for starting the work necessary to introduce measure. Not quantified  4 Executive Summary * Use of low-smoke lubrication oil, 2-stroke: Setting and enforcing a standard for oil quality and is important. Taxes and subsidies can be used to set the price of oil according to its quality. * Inspection and maintenance of vehicles: More maintenance stations able to carry our annual or biannual inspections are needed for enforcement of clean vehicle standards. Basic legislation is already in place. The greatest potential to reduce emissions lies in diesel vehicles and initially, agencies could concentrate on these vehicles. * Improving diesel quality: Indian refineries require modification in order to produce low sulfur (less than 0.2 percent) diesel. Economic instruments such as taxes and subsidies can be used to differentiate fuel price according to quality. * Fuel switching, gasoline to LPG/CNG in vehicles: The tax or subsidy structure must be changed in order to make LPG/CNG the preferred fuel. The establishment of distribution and compression systems for CNG are also a key component of this action. * Cleaner fuel oil: A reduction in the sulfur content of furnace oil, initially to less than 2 percent is a prerequisite. * Awareness raising: Public awareness and participation are key to bringing about policy change. Widespread environrmental education promotes understanding of linkages between pollution and health and encourages public involvement. Private sector participation through innovative schemes like accepting delivery only from trucks that meet government emission standards; Adopt-a-Street campaigns, and air quality monitoring displays should be encouraged. Media can also participate in awareness raising by disseminating air pollution- related data. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STRENGTHENING AIR QUALITY MONITORING, AND INSTITUTIONS A single coordinating institution with a clear mandate and sufficient resources must be made responsible for air quality management. In order to improve data, it is recommended that there be continuous, long-term monitoring at 5 or more general city sites (or city background sites), 1 to 3 traffic exposed sites, I to 5 industrial hot spots. Also, an on-line data retrieval system directly linked to a laboratory database either via modem or fax is recommended for modern surveillance. The analysis in this report calculates health impacts based on average dose-effect relations derived from U.S. cities because of a lack of local data. Such epidemiological data for exposure calculations should be improved. It is suggested that dispersion modeling experts be identified in Bombay and their expertise used by the agencies responsible for air quality management. Current restrictions on the use of coal, the Industrial Location Policy (1984), and the Central Action Plan (1992) to discourage non-compliance have been the most effective regulations. Restrictions on auto-rickshaws (three wheelers) and heavy commercial vehicles have had a positive effect on the air quality. It is important to ensure that institutions dealing with air quality be strengthened through clearer mandates and enforcing powers. Clearly, environmental risks are escalating. If pollution sources are allowed to grow unchecked the economic costs of productivity lost to health problems and congestion will escalate. While working with sparse and often unreliable data, this report sets out a preliminary plan that has the potential to improve air quality and better manage the AQMS in the future.  1. BACKGROUND INFORMATION 1.1. SCOPE OF THE STUDY This city report on air quality management for Greater Mumbai (henceforth referred to as Greater Bombay) has been produced as part of the URBAIR program A major objective of the URBAIR program is to develop Air Quality Management Systems (AQMS) for Asian cities, and to apply such strategies in the development of Action Plans to improve urban air quality AQMS is based on a cost-benefit analysis of proposed actions, and measures for air pollution abatement In general, costs relate to abatement measures while benefits tnclude a potential reduction in the estimated costs of health damage resulting from air pollution This study emphasizes the damage to the health of those who are exposed to air pollution Population exposure is based on measured and calculated concentrations of air pollution through emission inventories and dispersion modeling A general strategy for AQMS is described in the "URBAIR Guidebook on Air Quality Management Strategy" published by MEIP (Larssen et al 1996a) Reports based on city-specific analysis are produced for each of the four URBAIR/MEIP cities: Greater Bombay, Jakarta, the Kathmandu Valley urban area, and Metro Manila These reports outline Action Plans for air quality improvement (Chapter 5), including estimates of cost-and-benefit figures The Action Plans are based comprehensive lists of proposed measures and actions developed by local working groups in consultation with outside experts The appendices of the report contains more detailed description of the air quality data, the emissions inventory and emissions factors, population exposure calculations and local laws and regulations 1.2. GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF GREATER BOMBAY Geography. Bombay is located on India's west coast, on a peninsula originally composed of seven islets Drainage and concentration have caused the islets to join and form the present-day Bombay Island, with the Arabian Sea to the west, and Bombay Harbor and the outlet of Thana Creek to the east Municipal boroughs and villages of Bombay Island and Salsett Island to the north were joined in 1957 to form Greater Bombay The Bombay Metropolitan Region (BMR) continued to expand and now includes New Bombay to the east of Thana Creek, and Bombay Harbor and other areas further to the north and east. In the mid-I 980s BMR covered an area of more than 600 square kilometers (km2) Figure 1 1 shows a map of BMR Much of Bombay is on a flat plain, one-fourth of which is below sea level Two north-south ridges flank the flat area, the highest point being Malabar Hill to the south-west, 55 meters above sea level 5  6 Background Information Population. The population density of Figure 1.1: Bombay MWetropolitan Region, and Greater Bombtay, Greater Bombay ivith nain roads, railroads, industrial and commercial areas, and averages about 16,500 modeling area used in this study. persons per km2 (1991), with more than three times this figure in the older central parts of Bombay. The I total population was Greater - _ _ about 9.9 million in bay 1991 ~~~~~~boundary 1991 l Y , Transportation. / Salsette. Bombay is India's Area selected main industrial city /expdsers ! ' I with air- / ~~~exposure withmanyair- modelling polluting industries . / i. Creek located in Chembur, in eastern Bombay The main roads are Arabian Sea concested most of the NAerport i w day, particularly the /Bob eastern and western express highwvays and the Thana Creek C Bridge Road Municipal and commercial activity is concentrated in the X city's southern part Commuting to and from populated areas Harbour to the north places a large burden on the road system The N - - - - - - - - Industry and z < '- v ' g ~~~~commerce capacity of the road -EI,_ Main roads and rail system to 0 5 10 kmr accommodate the increasing need for south-north commuting is much too small, leading to chronic day-time congestion. Maximum traffic flow (Annual Average Daily Traffic, AADT) at a road section is about 120,000 vehicles per day Three suburban, surface, electric train systems provide the main public transportation, together with the municipally owned bus fleet The former carries more than 4 million passengers per day, while the latter transports about 4 5 million people Bombay Harbor is India's busiest, handling more than 40 percent of India's maritime trade  URBAIR-Bombay 7 The land use structure of Bombay has undergone major changes in the past decade Massive housing developments have arisen in previously non-urban belts along the western corridor and the Bombay-Pune (eastern) rail corridor New Bombay on the mainland, east of Thane Creek, has become a center of commercial activity Commercial complexes have been developed in the reclamation area along Mahim Creek and Mithi River on the outskirts of the island city A new district center--Oshiwara--has emerged in the northern suburbs (Coopers & Lybrand and AIC, 1994) 1.3. DATA SOURCES Previous studies. There has been no comprehensive study of the air pollution situation in Bombay, describing air quality, sources, emissions, and exposure The Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB), the Municipal Corporation of Greater Bombay (MCGB) and the National Engineering and Environmental Research Institute (NEERI) have presented various data on air quality and emissions The Bombay air pollution situation is briefly described by the World Health Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (WHO/UNEP, 1992) based mainly on the three Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) monitoring sites in Bombay, operated by the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) The M\EIP study, "Environmental Management Strategy and Action Plan for Bombay Metropolitan Region," (Coopers & Lybrand and AIC, 1994) includes the air pollution sector and proposed management options, as it does for other environmental sectors The recently reported Comprehensive Study of Bombay Metropolitan Region (Atkins, 1993) has provided essential data on the traffic activity in Greater Bombay URBAIR data collection. Further data on various aspects of population, pollution sources, dispersion, air quality, and health aspects were collected for URBAIR, starting in April 1993 ADITYA Environmental Services, Bombay, provided data on population, pollution sources, fuel, vehicle and traffic statistics, air quality measurements, and meteorological/dispersion conditions Dr A A Mahashur of the Environmental Pollution Research Center in Bombay contributed evidence of the health effects of air pollution on the Bombay population, and on associated health costs (See Appendix 8 for further details) 1.4. THE GROWTH OF BOMBAY, 1981-1991 Bombay's population grew by 38 percent from 1971 to 1981, and another 20 percent between 1981 and 1991, to reach 9 9 million The total number of vehicles increased by about 103 percent from 1981 to 1991, leading to increased consumption of gasoline and diesel oil Between 1985- 1990, gasoline and light diesel oil consumption increased by 26 percent and 24 percent respectively, while furnace oil use decreased significantly The 1990 gross domestic product per capita (GDP/capita) figure for India is US$350, and the corresponding figure for Bombay is expected to have been much higher Over the period 1965-1990, the growth rate of GDP/ per capita was 1 9 percent, about the same as for the U S Over the last decade the annual increase was 3.2 percent Figure 1 2 gives a summary of the available data regarding population, vehicles, fuel consumption and air quality, and development over the last decade  8 Background Information Figure 1.2: Bombay development 1981-1992: Population, vehiclefleet, fuel consumption and air quality. 12.0 120 POPULATIONCe 10 0Tcn 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 800 VEHICLE FLEET 700 0 Motor Cycles Cars. jeeps, station wagons O Taxi cabs 0 Autonckshaws ED Trucks, lorres. buses * Utility vehicles 00 _. 4.0 :