This volume d e a l s w i t h key i s s u e s of T r a a s p o r t Policy. It wa.s prepared by M r . Y i l f r e d OGren who was granted lea.ve from t h e Brookings I n s t i t u t i o n t o s e r v e a s a member of t h e i'iission. m e r e p o r t i s based on i n v e s t i - g a t i o n i n Iiidia. i n t h e p e r i o d I!ovember 1?6k t o Februa-y 1765. The w r i t i n g vras conrple t e d i n June 1965. E d i t o r i a l r e v i s i o n s ha,ve been mz.de s i n c e t h a t d a t e . Pape -I- 1. 10 Introduction Accomplishments t o Date P r o j e c t i n g Demand P o s i t i o n of t h e h . i l w a y s A. T r a f f i c and Investment B. P r i c i n g P o l i c i e s C. S h i f t s i n T r a f f i c Pa.tterns Road Transport Trends and Problems A . Gains i n Trucking B. Condition of t h e Highways C .D i s orga,nization of F r e i g h t Hauling D. S i g n i f i c a n c e of Road Transport Trends VI. Transport Coordina.ti on A. The Role of Truck Transport B. Passenger Transport Coordination C. Other Coordina,tion P ~ o b l e m s D. The Dynamics of Coordina.tion VII . Tra,nsporta,tion and Food A. A Na.tionb~ideProgram B. Concentrating t h e E f f o r t C. Economic J u s t i f i c a t i o n D. Trucks vs. Bullocks E. Grain Handling a t t h e P o r t s VIII . Cornmunica,tions t o Supplement Transport IX. The I n c r e a s i n g Costs of Urbanization X. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Foreign Exchange XI. blew D i r e c t i o n s f o r t h e Fourth P1a.n A. The Importance of Innovation B. Role of t h e Railways C. Development of Road Transport D. Roads f o r Food E. Other Aspects of I h r k e t i n g . F. Nachines vs Labor-Intensive P r o j e c t s G. The Bala,nce of Payments H. Minimizing Unnecessary Transport I. Organization and Administration Introduction 1. The goals t h a t a r e c r i t i c a l t o 1 n d i a . I ~economic g r m t h ?dl1 depend on t h e a b i l i t y t o move l a r g e a d d i t i o n a l volumes of t r a f f i c . h r t h e r i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n w i l l r e q u i r e t h e c a p a c i t y t o d e l i v e r coal, i r o n ore, cheinicals, cement, and o t h e r raw m a t e r i a l s where and $]hen t h e y a r e needed. A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l be i n c r e a s e d o n l y if f e r t i l i z e r s , seed, sprays and o t h e r i n p u t s can be d e l i v e r e d a t t h e r i g h t time, and i f produce can be t r a n s p o r t e d t o urban consumers. Costs of production and t h e competitive p o s i t i o n of I n d i a n e x p o r t s m i l l be a f f e c t e d significantly by t r a n s p o r t c a p a b i l i t i e s and c o s t s . Even programs of t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e , h e a l t h , and educa:ti on presuppose t h e a b i l i t y t o reach t h o s e who need h e l p and t o u s e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a s a means of communication. 2. It i s t h e purpose of t h i s c h a p t e r t o a s s e s s t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of t h e e x i s t i n g t r z n s p o r t system, t o i n d i c a t e t h e dimensions of f u t u r e demand, and t o s u g g e s t what t r a . n s p o r t a t i on p o l i c i e s and programs w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o ma.ke development i n o t h e r s e c t o r s f e a s i b l e . 1 - 1 . Accomplishments t o Dete 3. 1ndia.n accomplishments i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a r e impressive. Since 1950, p o r t capa.city and r a i l f r e i g h t t r a , f f i c have more than doubled, t r u c k tramsport has quadrupled, and t h e mileage of all-weather roads i s 50 p e r c e n t g r e a t e r tha.n it was a deca.de ago. Et-ery da.y t h e Indian railways apera.te 10,000 t r a i n s , l o a d h a l f a m i l l i o n t o n s of f r e i g h t , and c a r r y f i v e m i l l i o n passengers. Jet, a i r l i n e r s s e r v e t h e major c i t i e s , and a i r passenger volume i s f o u r times wha.t i t was f i v e y e a r s ago. Almost a l l long-distance f i r s t cle.ss ma.il goes by plane. O some main high~..ra,ys i r conditioned buses provide f r e q u e n t s e r v i c e n a and f a s t schedules, w h i l e truclts a r e c u t t i n g t r a n s p o r t time t o a f r a c t i o n of r a i l time f o r a. bride va.riety of goods over d i s t a n c e s t h a t commonly range up t o a thouse.nd kilometers. The l a , t e s t a d d i t i o n s t o t h e t r a n s - p o r t network a r e more than 1,500 kilometers of p i p e l i n e s t h a t a r e moving both crude o i l and petroleum products. 4. A s i z a b l e i n d u s t r i a l establishment has been created t o help s u s t a i n t h e s e t r m s p o r t t r e n d s . I n d i a produces a l l of i t s r a i l wagons, steam locomotives, t r u c k s , buses and automobiles. Other economic support includes a graving d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c locomotive output, t i r e manu- f a c t u r e , b i c y c l e production, petroleum r e f i n i n g , s h i p b u i l d i n g , and a, g r e a t v a r i e t y of s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s . Together t h e t r a n s p o r t system and i t s supply i n d u s t r i e s p r o v i d e f o u r t o f i v e m i l l i o n jobs. TABLS 1. The Indian Transport System, 1964 Basic Transport F a c i l i t i e s Highways Surfaced Unsurf aced iiai11,~a.y . 1 t e s 0 21 Broad gauge e K t e r gauge Na.rrma gz.uge Airports (number of u n i t s ) Pipelines Number of Units Railway locomotives 11,541 (10,810 steam) Passenger coaches Freight csrs Hotor vehicles Trucks Buses Passenger c c r s Aircraft Merchant F l e e t ( m i l l i o n tons) Coastal v e s s e l s Overseas v e s s e l s -/ a ikpected t o be completed by t h e end of Fourth Plan. - b/ 1960/61. 5 These accomplishments have been made p o s s i b l e by a l l o c a t i n g r a v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n of I n d i a ' s resources f o t~ a n s p o r t a t i o n . During t h e f i r s t t h r e e p l a n p e r i o d s t h e percentage of development funds made a v a i l a b l e f o r t r a n s p o r t and communlcatioris tras g r e a t e r than f o r any o t h e r purpose. Transport was approximately 25 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l p u b l i c s e c t o r irlvesttlent i n each of t h e t h r e e p1a.n p e r i o d s . T o t a l p u b l i c funds s p e n t f o r this purpose amounted t o $7.8 b i l l i o n i n f i f t e e n y e a r s . Third P l a n expenditures were a t t h e r a t e of $800 m i l l i o n p e r year. And of t h e t o t a l investment, i n both p u b l i c a,nd p r i v a t e s e c t o r s , t r a n s p o r t accounted f o r 17 p e r c e n t i n t h e F i r s t Plan, 20 p e r c e n t i n t h e Second, and 1 9 p e r c e n t i n t h e Third. 6. The major focus of t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r program h a s been on railways. I n t h e Third Plan, r a i l expenditures were 61 p e r c e n t of a l l t r a n s p o r t outlays, while 2 p e r c e n t went f o r roads and road t r a n s p o r t . ! 4 , P o r t development axcounted f o r 6 p e r c e n t of t h e program. These t h r e e items made up 9 1 p e r c e n t of t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n plan, with t h e remaining 9 p e r cent going t o i n l a n d :.rater tra.nsport, shipping, avia-tion, tourism and p i p e l i n e s . 7. Foreign a i d funds f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o t a l e d 31317 m i l l f o n i n t h e f o u r t e e n years, 1949-63. The World Bank accounted f o r inore than h a l f t h i s amount, and t h e railways received more than 70 p e r c e n t of a s s i s t a n c e from a l l sources. 6. f A s a r e s u l t of t h e s e c ~ n c e n t r a ~ t eed f o r t s , few n a t i o n s can p o i n t t o g r e a t e r accomplishment i n s o s h o r t a time. But i n macy a r e a s t h e q u a l i t y of Indian t r a n s p o r t i s s t i l l low, and a.vailable c a p a c i t y i s s t i l l f a r from adequate t o cope tsith p r o s p e c t i v e development t a s k s . Roads and road t r a n s p o r t a r e poor compared t o standards i n most ma.j o r c o u n t r i e s of t h e world. The rum-1 economy i s l a r g e l y i s o l a t e d from t h e mainstream of I n d i a n economic and s o c i a l progress. Low y i e l d s i n a g r i c u l t u r e and t h e s h o r t supply of food a r e r e l a t e d both obviously and i n s u b t l e nays t o t h e i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y of t h e v i l l z g e and t o d i f f i c u l t i e s of ma.rkeeting. Indian business i s saddled by v e r y l a r g e i n v e n t o r i e s due t o r e c u r r i n g t r a n s p o r t shortages. P o r t congestion con+,inues t o hs.mper t r a d e , while urban t r a f f i c i n C~xlcutt2, Bombay, Delhi and o t h e r c i t i e s ef poses incree.singl;r s e r i o u s problems. The c u m u l a t i ~ ~ e f e c t s of t h e s e conditions or, t h e I n d i a n economy a r e high c o s t s and l o s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s and a brake on t h e momentum of t h e development e f f o r t . TABU 2 . Transport Develop e n t Expenditures, F i r s t Three Five-Year Plans, a 7 (Crores of rupees) Actual Anticipated ExpencEtures Expenditures Purpose F i r s t Plan Second Plan Third Plan b/ ~a.ilwa,~s- Road and rosd t r a n s p o r t Inlatld water t r a n s p o r t P o r t s and harbors Shipping C i v i l a i r trmsport Other t r a n s p o r t Total - Percentage ibil.ways Roa.ds and road t r a n s p o r t Inland l a t e r t r a n s p o r t P o r t s and harbors Shipping C i v i l a i r tramsport Other t r a n s p o r t Total Tramsport a s percent of t o t e l p u b l i c expenditures Source : De ta. supplied b y t h e P l a n n i ~ g Commission, Govermnent or" India., 1966. -/ a Public s e c t o r . - b/ Exclusive of expenditures met by Depreciation IZeserve Fund and expenditure on inventopies. ?Istimated t o t a l railway expenditure f o r Third Five-Year Plan i s 2s. 15&1crores. TABLE 3. Foreign Aid f o r Transport ( I n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) Purpose I%ilvays Highway Transport Ports C i a i l Avi2,tion Source : Derived c h i e f l y from t h e Agency f o r 1 n t e r n a t i o n a . l Development, l Countrg Assistance program, I n d i a ( o f f i c i ~ Use only), August 196k9 . pp 4/30-4/31. - a/ Incl:..?es $34 m i l l i o n from Canada and Austrsliz.. - b/ C o r p ~ * i s e s r o j e c t loans extended by A I D t o f i n a n c e imports of p automo Live m a n ~ ~ f a c t u r i nequipment and t r u c k s and a u t o n o b i l e s g . - c/ !! c r e d i t extended by IDA. - d/ I n c l ~ d e sIG-rl 2nd IBRD c r e d i t s . 1. 1 1 P r o j e c t i n g 3ema.nd 9 I n c r e a s i n g popula.tion a.nd econcmic a c t i v i t y continue t o expand t h e vohirne oj' p z , a s a ~ g e rand f r e i g h t t r a f f i c . Since 1959, t h s i n c r e a s e i n f r c i g h t h a been t h r e e t i n e s a s r 2 p i d a.s t h e r i s e i n n a t i c n a l income. The slow-dcnm i n production d t v i n g 1964 reduced t h e r a t e of t r a f f i c ex- pa,nsion, b u t i n 1965 t h e long-term upward t r e n d s regained momentum. 10. The a.ttempt t o visua,lize I n d i a ' s needs and production t a r g e t s two decades hence i n d i c a t e s thc?,t t r a n s p o r t demands w i l l be sta.ggering. The e x t r z people t o be f e d , clothed a.nd housed by 1985 w i l l be e q u i v s l e n t t o adding t h e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n of ? J e s t e r n Europe t o t h e n e a r l y h a l f a b i l l i o n people i n India. today. A g r i c u l t u r a l production w i l l have t o more t h a n doub1.e brhat has been axhieved t o d a t e . The output of i n d u s t r y w i l l be e i g h t times g r e a t e r t h a n i t i s t0da.y. TABLE 4. Freight Traffic and Economic Trends (1950/51 = 100) T o t a l R a i l and Road National Agricultur@ Industr ia\, Freight T r a f f i c Income Production- Production- F i s c a l Year (in ton-kms.) ( i n 1948/49 Rs) Source: Data supplied by t h e manning Commission a/ *-. Crop year ending June. Base year = 19b9/500 - b , ' Base year = 1956. Calendar years. - c/ Provisional. 1,1 The g r e a t proportion of f r e i g h t w i l l continue t o be bulk co~nnoditiessuch a s f u e l , ores, foodgrains, building materials, chemicals, and o-Lher raw materials. But t h e movement of high-valued manufactures and of perishable food products w i l l r e g i s t e r t h e most spectacular increase, The r s s u l t of these t r e n d s w i l l be t o multiply t h e t r a f f i c moving on the raj..l;,~~-ys a t t h e same time t o make road, a i r , water and p i p e l i n e trans- 3~13. l p o r t c ~ i t i c a t o successful handling of t h e t o t a l load. 12 . Growth of population and incomes w i l l multiply t h e volume of passenger t r a v e l . The i s o l a t i o n of the v i l l a g e s w i l l have t o be over- come t o a major degree by all-weather roads and through increased owner- s h i p of bicycles, motorcycles, and motor scooters. The mechanization of a g r i c u l t u r e w i l l hasten the displacement of bullock c a r t s by farm pick-up trucks and t r a c t o r s , and bus t r a n s p o r t w i l l be required t o connect major communities. The extension of i n t e r c i t y s e r v i c e s by j e t and l a t e r by short-haul d i r e c t - l i f t a i r c r a f t w i l l multiply dependence on a f r t r a v e l and the s i z e of t h e a i r l i n e network. 13. The railway system w i l l have t o be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from what it i s today. Abandonment of l i g h t l y t r a v e l e d branch l i n e s and ot'ner unecono- mic routes w i l l s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduce t h e present mileage. I3us and t r u c k s e r v i c e w i l l have t o be s u b s t i t u t e d , e i t h e r by the railways themselves or by bus and t r u c k companies. High-density l i n e s connecting major c i t i e s w i l l be e l e c t r i f i e d , with d i e s e l e l e c t r i c locomotives operating on l e s s e r routes. For general f r e i g h t t r a f f i c a nationwide system of t r a n s p o r t containers w i l l be needed, interchangeable among rzZ1 f l a t c a r s , trucks, ships and cargo a i r c r a f t , l.4. I n addition t o f l e e t s of trucks and buses operated i n i n t e r c i t y service, a much g r e a t e r number of motor vehicles w i l l be r e q ~ i r e dt o serve Indian business and a g r i c u l t u r e , It w i l l take a million trucks t o fill t h e needs of urban r e t a i l trade, t o supply r u r a l community and farm requirements, t o d i s t r i b u t e food and other products t o the c i t i e s , and t o c a r r y manufactures t o r e t a i l o u t l e t s . Automotive t r a n s p o r t w i l l be a major source of investment, employment, and resource development. 15 The volume of f o r e i g n t r a d e and t r a v e l w i l l be a t much higher l e v e l s than today, TaJithin a decade supersonic j e t s w t l l bring India with- i n two t o f o u r hours of European c a p i t a l s , and within s i x hours of Nw e York. The e f f e c t s of supersonic f l i g h t , coinbined with expanded h o t e l and r e s o r t accommodations, w i l l be a s u b s t a n t i a l r i s e i n t h e volume of tourism. For India has a g r e a t v a r i e t y of h i s t o r i c and scenic a t t r a c t i o n s t h a t can produce s u b s t a n t i a l dividsnds when t h e favorable trends i n a i r transport technology a r e combined with a systematic development of t o c r i s t p o t e n t i a l s . 16. By 1985, commerce through Indian p o r t s w i l l be a f f e c t e d t o a major degree by higher l e v e l s of l i v i n g i n nations t h a t were j u s t emerging i n t h e 196ots. Economic development i n Asia and elsewhere w i l l mean the m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of t r a d e i n goods of a l l kinds. Reduction of b a r r i e r s t o trading t r i l l g r e a t l y expand t h e volume of i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a f f i c o 1 7- This picturo of the India of twenty years hence implies tremen- dous changes i n t r a n s p o r t c a p a b i l i t i e s . But it i s necessary t o look no more than f i v e years ahead t o see t h e dimensions of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problems t o come. It i s estimated t h a t by t h e end of the Fourth Plan period i n 1970/71, t h e r e w i l l be a 55 per cent increase i n r a i l f r e i g h t volume over 1965/66. The e x t r a load w i l l amount t o lam i l l i o n tons. Truck t r a n s p o r t is expected t o increase three--fold, with an added load of 77 million tons. Thus the Indian road and r a i l system, which i s carry- ing about 245 m i l l i o n tons today, w i l l be faced with the t a s k of moving some 4 4 m i l l i o n tons f i v e years from now. .0 18. These a r e the c e n t r a l f a c t s t h a t measure I n d i a ' s f u t u r e t r a n s - p o r t problems. They make it c l e a r t h a t t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t a s k i s f a r beyond t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of the e x i s t i n g system, and t h a t heroic e f f o r t s w i l l be required if t r a n s p o r t i s n o t t o s t a l l t h e development e f f o r t , Under the circumstances, it would be i r o n i c i f e f f o r t s were t o be made t o hamper the growth of urgently needed road t r a n s p o r t , o r t o Irprotecttst h e railways from competition. Yet pressures a r e being exerted f o r p r e c i s e l y t h i s approach a s t h e Indian t r a n s p o r t system f a c e s i t s g r e a t e s t t e s t . P o s i t i o n of t h e Railways 19. The challenge i s t o a s s u r e tha.t t r a n s p o r t p o l i c i e s adopted norr make i t p o s s i b l e t o accommodate the burdens +&at economic development w i l l c r e a t e i n t h e next f i v e y e a r s and beyond. The railway. system i s t h e major c a r r i e r of f r e i g h t and passengers toda,y. '..hat i s t h e condition of t h e system, what s t e p s a r e being taken t o meet f u t u r e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , and what s h i f t s i n p o l i c y w i l l be required? A. T r a f f i c and Investment 20 . The Indian Railways ha.ve expanded t h e i r operations almost continuously over t h e p a s t decade and a h a l f . I n t h e l a s t fourteen years t h e y have a,ccommodated a 107 p e r cent incpea,se i n tons o r i g i n a t i n g and a. 45 p e r cent i n c r e a s e i n passenger t r a f f i c . From 1950 t o 1960, t o t a l f r e i g h t tonnage 5ncreased 6.0 p e r c e n t annually, and from 1960 t o 1965 t h e r e was a. f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e of 6 p e r cent annually. The nmber of passer,gers increased a.t a r a t e of 2 .& p e r cent a, year during t h e decade of t h e fiftiss, and 6.3 p e r cent p e r year from 1960 t o 1965, Altogether during the 'Third Plan, t h e r a i l f r e i g h t t r a f f i c increa,se i s estima,ted a t 52 i n i l i i o n tons, o r 33 p e r cen.t. 21. The Third Plan years s2x both periods of excess demand and a -- s h o r t e r i n t e r v a l of below-capacity operations. I n 1962/63, tons originat- 1 i n g on t h e railways increased 1 p e r cent over t h e previous year, and t h e r e was a s e r i o u s shortage of r a i l vagons. The r z p i d i n t r o d u c t i o n of new i n d u s t r i a l output was p r i m a r i l y responsible, but t h e s i t u a t i o n was aggra.- vated by t h e build-up of inventories by i n d u s t r i a l customers who increased t h e i r orders t o a s s u r e t h a t t h e i r e s s e n t i a l needs would be met. Then, i n t h e f i r s t s i x months of 1961c/65, ra.ilwag t r a f f i c was down h a l f a m i l l i o n tons from t h e same period of t h e previous year. Coal and s t e e l t r a f f i c f e l l 2.5 m i l l i o n tons. By mid-hTovember t h e r e were 20,000 i d l e r a i l c a r s , The currefit y e a r may s e e only a modest 3 million-ton i n c r e a s e i n t r a f f f c compared t o e ~ ~ r l i e s t i h a t e s of 1 7 m i l l i o n a d d i t i o n a l tons. r 22. A s l m r e r ra.te of i n c r e a s e i n economic a x t i v i t y has elitaineted - customary c o r p l a i n t s a.bou-1; delays i n g e t t i n g r a i l wagons. The l a r g e govern- ment u s e r s of r a i l s e r v i c e a l l express s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h t h e movement of coal, i r o n and s t e e l , foodgrains, and o t h e r commodities, and these s e n t i - ments a r e echoed by l a r g e shippers i n t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . llany i n d u s t r i a l i s t s express a f e e l i n g of n o s t a l g i a f o r t h e days when business was s o good t h a t r a i l . s e r v i c e was bad. TABLE 5. Projected T r a f f i c i n t h e Fourth Plan Period I. Freight T r a f f i c on Railways I4illions of Tons Commodity 1945-66 1979-71 Coal 68.5 108.1 S t e e l %/ Cement General goods Iron o r e f o r export Other goods Total A l l goods (In b i l l i o n s of ton-km. ) 1 1 . F r e i g h t T r a f f i c on Roads I:!illions of Tons - Commodity 1962-61 lT0-71 Coal, i r o n ore, cement, petroleum, limestone Other goods Total Tvpe of ilovement B i l l i o n s of Ton-Krn. Intercity traffic lh lr2 i ~ n t r a c i t traffic Total Source: Railway t r a f f i c d a t a supplied by t h e Planning Comission, Government of India, 1966; road t r a f f i c d a t a from Planning Commission, Programs of Development of Transport and Communications i n t h e ~ o u r t h Plan, February 1965, pp. 5-6. -7 ' Raw materials and f i n i s h e d products. 236 By t h e end of 1964 t h e backlog of t r a f f i c awaiting r a i l shipment had been reduced t o a p r a c t i c a l minimum of two t o three days, and i n 1966 it seemed l i k e l y t h a t India would move i n t o t h e Fourtn Plan e r i o d with f reight-carrying capacity " j u s t nominally ahead of demandu. ~7 Tha slower r a t e of economic progress was n o t t h e only f a c t o r t h a t had eased t h e poaition of t h e railways. Shippers, more confident about r a i l d e l i v e r i e s , were drawing more heavily on the inventories they had b u i l t up d u r h g t h e previous two years. In addition, t h e railways were u t i l i z i n g equipment more e f f i c i e n t l y , thanks both t o t h e l a r g e number of d i e s e l locomotives coming i n t o s e r v i c e and t o improved railway operating practices. Tfiere was a l s o a s u b s t a n t i a l increase in new wagon production. In t h e f i r s t t h r e e years of the Third Plan, annual prodilction of wagons increased from 19,100 t o 32,000, and by e a r l y 1965 t h e proportion of goods t r a f f i c hauled by d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c power had increased t o 38 per cent. TABLE 6. Trends i n Railway Traffic, 19.50-65 (In millions) Freight Passengers I - - Year Tons Ton-Km. Total Number Pass. -.Km, Average Annual Rate of Increase i n Per Cent Source: -- Ministry of Railways, Government of India, Indian Railwayss 1963-61r, pp. 23 and 29; Indian R a i l w a m pp. 1 6 2 -/ Februarya t1966,Itspeech Introducing t h eblinistry 1 S,K. P i l , 15 Government of India, Railway Budget f o r 1966-.67,11 of Railways, pp, 5. It was a l s o indicated t h a t f o r some flows of t r a f f i c i n c o a l and i r o n . ore, "the margin of t r a n s p o r t a v a i l a b i l i t j r over demand w i l l be somewhat more 'I 24. The railways a r e continuing t o d i e s e l i z e and double t r a c k t o increase capacity on the most heavily used routes connecting Delhi, Madras, Bombay and Calcutta, a s w e l l a s Assam. In 1966 the e n t i r e route between Calcutta and Bombay w i l l be doubled, with e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n from Calcutta t o Kanpur. A t o t a l of 2,200 kilometers of new l i n e s were completed during t h e Third Plan, l a r g e l y t o accommodate i r o n o r e and other mineral t r a f f i c . To improve r a i l service, 54 new passenger t r a i n s and 61 new suburban t r a i n s were introduced i n 1965 on broad-gauge l i n e s , and 69 on the meter-gauge system.&/ 25. During the Third Plan t h e f l e e t of r o l l i n g stock was augmented by 1,275 locomotives, 117,CCO wagons, and 5,600 coaches. The Railways have become nearly s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t in t h e manufacture of wagons snd coaches, with only p a r t i a l dependence on imported s t e e l . Track mate i a l s and mechanical signaling equiprrent are a l s o indigenously supplied,-2 7 26. Actual t r a f f i c u n i t s provided per kilometer of broad-gauge railway l i n e i n India show t h a t f o r a given amount of physical p l a n t t h e Indian railways provide a high degree of ~ t i l i z a t i o n . Net ton-kilometers plus passenger-kilometers were 10.2 million per broad-gaugo r o u t e kilo- meter i n 1963/64, compared t o l e s s than half t h i s amount f o r France and the United S t a t e s , but twice t h i s amount f o r Japan. Oparating expenses on t h e Indian railways were 0.5 of a cent per u n i t of t r a f f i c , compared t o 0.6 of a cent on the Japanese Nationsrl Railways and 0,6 of a cent on U.S. railways. Pricing P o l i c i e s 27. The t a s k of financing current operations of the railways became increasingly d i f f i c u l t during t h e f o u r t h year of the Third Plan, The s i t u a t i o n r e s u l t e d from a combination of increased wage payments t o compen- s a t e f o r higher c o s t s of l i v i n g and the s h o r t f a l l i n t r a f f i c . These f a c t o r s have l e d t o s e l e c t i v e r a t e increases f o r both f r e i g h t and passenger service t o bring r a t e s more closely i n l i n e with costs. Increases of 4 t o 6 per cent -/ Februarya t1965,I1Speech Introducing the Ministry Budget f o r 1965-66," 1 SeK. P i l , 18 Government of India, Railway of Railways, - Februarya t1966."Speech Introducing the 2/ S. K. P i l , 15 Government of India, Rail-gay Budget f o r 1966-67, Ministry of Railways, were introduced i n 1965 on i r o n and s t e e l , cement, limestone and ores, and t h e r e was an 8 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n petroleum r a t e s . A t t h e same time, t h e d i s p a r i t y between low-rated and high-rated commoditfes :zra.s reduced by lowering r a t e s i n t h e higher brackets, ma.lnly manufactures. Passenger f a r e s Tqere a l s o r a i s e d approxima,tely 10 p e r c e n t f o r most t r i p s , t h e mejor exception beirLg s h o r t t r i p s i n t h i r d c l a s s a.nd some t a p e r i n g of v e r y long-distance r a t e s i n a l l classes., 1/ 2 8. be r a t e proposals i n 1966 included p r i n c i p a l l y a 3 p e r c e n t !w surcharge on goods r a t e s g e n e r a l l y . There was a l s o an i n c r e a s e i n r a t e s on coal, coke and s a l t on t r i p s a,bove 800 kilometers, t h e l a t t e r t o be a.ccomplisl~edby diminishing t h e t a p e r beyond t h i s d i s t a n c e . Increases were a l s o p r o ~ o s e df o r s m a l l consignments, which ha.-re been moving a t uneconomic r a t e s . &.te reductions v e r e proposed f o r a l a r g e n b e r of consumer goods, i n c l u d i n g t e a , tobacco, sugar, and medicines adjustments continued t o b r i n g about a. c l o s e r conformity behaeen t,rc?ns- z .y These p o r t c o s t s 2,nd p r i c e s . 29. I n a d d i t i o n t o i ~ c r e a s e si n r a i l ra.tes t o cover i n c r e a s e d costs, t h e questioii rney a,lso be r a i s e d whether s t i l l higher ra,tes should be charged t o zugmene r a i l earnings. If ea.rnings were increesed t5ey could be used t o f i n a n c e a.dditiona.1 l~l~provernents thus reduce t h e l a r g e and amounts of o u t s i d e c a p i t a l required f o r t h i . s pu,-pose. In the private s e c t o r i t hs-s been estimated tha.t r a t e s of r e t u r n average about 12 p e r cent. The railways lia.ve t h e opportunity through i n t e r n a t i o n a l l o a n s of azcquirii;g c a p i t a , l a t comparatively low r a t e s . Thus, while they made 5-3/4, p e r c e n t i n t e r e s t pa.yments t o t h e government, t h e y a r e under no o b l i g a t i o n t o e a r n a, h i g h e r r a t e of r e t u r n . Lefeber and Chaudhuri e s t i m a t e t h e r e t u r n on r a i l investments i n t h e Third Plan t o be no more t h a a 3.6 t o 5 p e r cent. T e Indian r r i l 3 ~ a . yi~ d i c a t e t h a t t h e r e t u r n i n n 1963/6Lj w2.s 6.7 p e r cent.17 I n c o n t r a s t , it i s stimated t h a t the r e t u r n on road t r a n s p o r t ranges from 14. t o 30 p e r cent., &/ - 1/ D e t a i l s a r e s e t f o r t h i n tillemorendurn Explaining t h e Proposa1.s f o r Adjustments i n Fares a,nd F r e i g h t -3ates f o r Coaxhing and Goods Tra,ffic i n t h e Rai111.iayB ~ d g e t ,1965-64. Issued by t h e I t i n i s t r y , of 1 ~ ~ i b r a . February 14, 1965. y~ - 2/ Xemorandum W l a i n i n g t h e Proposals f o r Adjustments i n Fares 2nd F r e i g h t Xa.tes f o r Coaching a.nd Goods Tra,ffic, To be E f f e c t i - ~ eFrom 1-4/1966. ( Idlinis t r z y of !?ail>Jay~ %.ilr.ray 3oa.rd) 1966. , - 3/ Miriis t r of 3=iilrrays, Government of India, Indian 12n ilrrays , 1963-6b, p. 82. a - 4 Louis Lefeber and M. Da-tta. Cha.udZ~uri, ttTransportation P o l i c y i n India, i n P r i c i n g and F i s cz.1 P o l i c i e s , Paul Zosens tein-Iioda.n, ed p 103. ., . 30. I n t h e highwa-y f i e l d , revenues from s p e c i a l road taxes a r e about 33 p e r c e n t h i g h e r t h a n amnual expenditures, d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e roads a r e not h i g h l y u t i l i z e d . I n o t h e r words, while most r a i l w a y l i n e s a r e g e n e r a l l y congested, w i t h ma.rginal cos5s r i s i n g , t h e r a t e s charged a r e low. But on t h e road system, where much of t h e mileage i s u n d e r - u t i l i z e d , r a t e s a r e high d e s p i t e t n e f a c t t h a t i m e r u n i t c o s t s could be achieved by encouraging t r a f f i c t o g r m . Thus India-n p r i c i n g p o l i c y f o r r a i l and road seem t o be t h e r e v e r s e of wha.t i o g i c would s u g g e s t . 31. \ h e n r a i l w a y r a t e s a r e t o o low t h e y n o t only reduce t h e f i n a n c i a l s t r e n g t h of t h e system, b u t encoura.ge unnecessaqj t r a v e l and lea-d t o dis- t o r t i o n s i n t h e l o c a t i o n of i n d u s t r i e s , both of which add t o t h e tramsport burden a.nd t o t h e denand f o r new capacity. Rail congestion d i d n o t materi- a . l i z e during t h e l a t t e r pa,rt of t h e Third Plan, due prima.rily t o s h o r t f a l l s i n t h e economy, b u t t h e Fourth Plan p e r i o d ma,y b r i n g a n o t h e r p e r i o d of con- g e s t i o n w i t h t h e introdu-ction of nev i n d u s t r i a l ca,pacity and e f f o r t s t o ac- c e l e r a t e farm production. Rates need t o be high enough t o a s s u r e adequ2,te earnings t o h e l p keep pace w i t h new investment requirements znd t o reduce t h e volume of unnecesssry movement o r t o encourage t r a f f i c t o s h i f t t o more economica.1 tramsport a , l t e r n a t i v e s . This mea,ns t n a t r a t e s sill have t o be r a i s e d t o increa.se t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y of t r a n s p o r t i n g bulk commodities. According t o Lefeber and Chzudhuri, t h e e f f e c t on manufacturing c o s t s re- s u l t i n g from such i n c r e a s e s a r e exaggerated. For example, t h e value added p e r t o n of c o a l used i n ma.nufa.cturing i s la.rge, s o t h a t t h e e f f e c t of a.n i n c r e a s e i n t r a n s p o r t c o s t s 1-rould be n e g l i g i b l e . ' h e r e coe.1-consuming i n d u s t r i e s wculd be i m p o r t a n t l y a f f e c t e d , however, t h i s should encourage them t o s h i f t t o s u b s t i t u t e f u e l s . And where export p r i c e s rrrere a f f e c t e d , a d i r e c t export s u b s i d y would be prefera.ble t o t h e p r e s e n t 25 t o 50 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n rai1wa.y f r e i g h t ra.tes f o r c e r t a i n e x p o r t commodities. C. S h i f t s i n Tra,ffic P a t t e r n s 32. Since railway f r e i g h t i s predominantly buUc m a t e r i a l s , t h e s e w i l l have t o provide t h e major p a r t o f r a i l earnings. A t h i r d of t n e t r a f f i c i s ~02.3.. More than h e l f of a l l commodity movements i s coal, rneta.Uk o r e s , s.nd stone. Then cement, i r o n and s t e e l , foodgrains and petroleum a.re added t o t h e l i s t , t h e s e seven ca.tegories of f r e i g h t a.ccount f o r 70 p e r c e n t of t h e r a i l w a y burden. 33. The r e l a t l v e importamce of t h e s e lola-rated bulk commodities i n the r a i l f r e i g h t t o t a l i s increasing, t h e kinds of t r a f f i c f o r which t h e ra.ilwa.ys charge h i g h e r r a t e s haxe declined. I n 1956/57, f o r example, 63 p e r c e n t of r a . i l t r a f f i c was bulk commodities, b u t by 1962/63 t h e pro- p o r t i o n of t h i s t r a f f i c had r i s e n t o 73 p e r c e n t . Almost a l l t h e g a i n s i n r a i l t r a f f i c s i n c e t h e beginning of t h e Second Plan have been i n t h e bulk c l a s s i f i c a . t i o n s . O t'ne Centra.1 and Nortnern Zonal L%ilwa.ys t h e r e w ~ a.n n s absolute d e c l i n e i n the volume of high-rated m a t e r i a l s , although t o t a l t r a f f i c increased. O t h e Eastern and Southeastern Zonal Railways 78 n and 84 p e r cent, respectively, of t o t a l t r a f f i c was i n t h e low-rate category. 34 . Among t h e high-rated commodities t h a t s h i f t e d i n l a r g e volumes t o raod t r a n s p o r t were raw cotton, o i l seeds, sugar, jute, tea, vegetable o i l s , and general provisions. 35 The shift t o road t r a n s p o r t i s a l s o i n d i c a t e d by t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e percentage of c e r t a i n commodities moved by r a i l i n r e l a t i o n t o pro- duction. For example, i n 1955/56 approximately 90 p e r cent of raw cotton production was c a r r i e d on t h e railways, canpared t o 39 p e r cent i n 1962/63. During t h e same period t h e s h a r e of t e a t h a t moved by r a i l f e l l from 85 t o 59 p e r cent, and cotton manufactures from 62 p e r cent of production t o 32 p e r cent. 36. These trends a r e a l s o i n d i c a t e d i n t h e t r a n s p o r t study of I h d r a s S t a t e , where t h e shift of farm t r a f f i c and l i g h t manufactures t o t h e road system has been e couraged by good roads and a m i n i m u m of r e s t r i c t i o n s on t r u c k transport., 9 I n t h e a r e a covered, which i s about 82 p e r cent of t h e s t a t e , t h e r a t i o of road mileage t o r a i l i s about 1 t o 1 There adre 1 . 2,942 kilometers of r a i l l i n e and 34,817 kilometers of roa.ds. About 9 2 p e r cen3/of t h e l a t t e r a r e l o c a l roads under d i s t r i c t o r v i l l a g e s u p e r vision.- O f t h e t o t a l l e n g t h of roads, two-thirds had some type of sur- face. Daily t r a f f i c d e n s i t y i n gross ton-kilometers was 2,214 p e r k i l o - meter of ra.ilway compared t o 1,932 p e r kilometer of highway. 37 For t h e railways these problems take on d i s t u r b i n g dimensions because poor roads and an inadequate supply of trucks w i l l n o t a.lways a c t a.s r e s t r a i n t s on road t r a n s p o r t development. Some observers worry tha.t t h e ra,ilwa,ys may be l e f t with t h e t r a f f i c t h a t does not pay, while t h e trucks r o l l off with everything t h a t does. But a s w i l l be seen, t h e r a i l - ways f a c e an enormous t a s k i n moving t h e heavy t r a f f i c t h a t expanding a.griculture and i n d u s t r y w i l l create. To perform t h i s t a s k w e l l t h e y w i l l f i n d i t h i g h l y beneficia.1 f o r c e r t a i n types of t r a f f i c t o s h i f t t o road r a t h e r than move by r a i l . A t t h e same time, t h e e f f o r t t o r e t a i n o t h e r types of t r a f f i c w i l l ha,ve t o be made through r a t e r e v i s i o n s a.nd s e r v i c e improvements. - 1/ JJa.tional Council of Applied Economic L%search, Regional Transport Survey of Pladras S t a t e and P o n d i c h e r q , Preliminary Report, November 1964. - 2/ The kilometer f i g u r e s a r e a s follows: n a t i o n a l highways, 19373; s t a t e highways, 1,471; d i s t r i c t roads, 11,502; other roads, 20,471. TABLE 7. Trends i n tiis P 3 t t e r n of R a i l Revenue T r a f f i c - - - - - - Year Ladated --- M i l l i o n s of TO;:~O r i g i n a t e d -- i21gh-Bated ~ota?: -t of Percen Low-Rated Traffic ~Kgh-Rated P e r c e n t of Earnings Low-Rated High-Rated - 1956-57 61.3 35.7 97 6302 36.8 39.6 60.4 1959-60 76.2 32 e8 109 69 -9 30 e l 47.2 52.8 1962-63 100.1 37.1 137.2 72 a 9 27,l 50.3 49 7 Source: Estimates based on Planning Commission da.ta. TABLE 8. D e c l i n i n g R a i l 310vements a s P e r Cent of Production P e r Cent of Tons Produced Mo~rj.npb y % . i l ,--2 , - Zommodity 1955-56 - 77 l902-~,- Cemen+, Oilseeds 3ugarca.ne 3.4 c o t t o n 21~ Tea. J u t e manufactures Cotton manufactures Source : Z a s t e r n k o n o m i s t , F e b r u ~ . r y21, 1964. From J. i~!ilmot, I n d i a n ~ - RaFlwag P r o j e c t : The Railway F r e i g h t Ra5e S t r u c t u r e of I n d i a and I t s E f f e c t on T r s f f i c and Revenues, J E L and IDA, August 2 1 7 - TABLE 9 . T r a f f i c D e n s i t y on Pla.drc..s 3 o e . d ~Compared t o Rail?,ra.jrs Gross Ton-Kilometers p e r Kilometer o f Xoute A l l railroads A l l hignwa,ys Southern 3ail1~ay. I n d i a n Government R a i l T ~ z y I\!at;iona,l highr7a.y~ Sta.te h i g h ~ a y s Major D i s t r i c t roads Otlier Dj.2 t r i c t roads Source: :'la,tisnal Council of Applied Zconomic Research, =o~.eL T r a n s p i f t 19 Survey of 1iadra.s S t a t e and Pondicherry, Prelimlnc?ry X e m , N o v e ~ ~ ~ b e r 4.. Roa,d T r a n s p o r t Trends and Problems 38. Motor t r a n s p o r t i n I n d i a , d e s p i t e ma.ny r e s % r i c t i v e burdens, c o n t i n u e s t o grow. It i s estima,ted t h a t truclcs a r e c a r r y i n g a.bout 20 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l road and r a i l t o n - k i l o m e t e r s , and buses ha.ve i n c r e a s e d t h e i r s h a r e of p a s s e n g e r b u s i n e s s from 23 p e r c e n t of t h e r 0 a . d - r a i l t o t a l i n 1948 t o 46 p e r c e n t today. 39 Road development between 1951 and 1961 r e s u l t e d i n a. 5 0 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e m i l e a g e of s u r f a c e d highwa.ys, from 97,500 m i l e s t o 1b6,500 m i l e s . By t h e end o f t h e T h i r d P l a n a n o t h e r 25,000 m i l e s of r o a d s w i l l have been a.dded. Unsurfaced roads i n t h e same p e r i o d have i n c r e a s e d by 9 5 p e r c e n t , from 151,000 m i l e s t o 29h,000 m i l e s . T h i s work h a s been f i n a n c e d through t a x revenues g e n e r a t e d by motor v e h i c l e s a.nd t h e i r use. Although t h e r e i s room f o r disagreement a s t o which of t h e s e l e v i e s can be c o n s i d e r e d charges l e v i e d e x p r e s s l y f o r highway purposes, i t i s p w s i b b t h a t c u r r e n t u s e r payments exceed t h e a n n u a l c o s t s of t h e road system, i n c l u d i n g d e p r e c i a t i o n charges. 40. T a x r a t e s have i n c r e a s e d t r a n s p o r t c o s t s and perhaps d i s c o u r a g e d b motor v e h i c l e o ~ ~ m e r s h i p ,u t e x p e n d i t u r e of pa.rt of t h e proceeds f o r road improvement h a s produced a n a p p o s i t e e f f e c t b y r e d u c i r g c o s t s of o p e r a t i o n . The n e t e f f e c t between 1950 and 1964 was an i n c r e a s e of 159 p e r c e n t i n buses and t r u c k s and 118 p e r c e n t i n p a s s e n g e r ca-rs. The c o n n t ~ y s naq i p r o d u c i n g some 60,000 motor v e h i c l e s a n n u a l l y , t h e p r o d u c t i o n of b i c y c l e s i s over a m i l l i o n p e r y e a r , and t h e o u t p u t of motorcycles and motor s c o o t e r s , w h i l e s t i l l low, i s expanding r a p i d l y . The g a i n s have been n o t a b l e , a l - though t h e v e h i c l e t o t a l i s s t i l l f a r be1or.r t h e l e v e l t h a t I n d i a ' s a r e a 2nd p o p u l a t i o n a,ppear t o r e q u i r e . ( s e e Tables 1-1and 12. ) - Gains i n Trucking 41. i The most i m p r e s s i v e g a i ~ s n r c a d t r a . n s p o r t have beer, i n truclciing. I n a l l p a r t s of t h e c o u n t r y f o o d g r a i n s , fruits and v e g e t a b l e s , ra:r c o t t o n , t e x t i l e s , machinery, i r o n a.nd s t e e l , cement, b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s , and p r o v i s i o n s such a s canned goods and p r o c e s s e d food a r e moving o v e r t h e road. The 2.verage h a u l f o r t e x t i l e s on t h e r o u t e from Bombay t o Phmeda.bac1 wa,s 511 k i l o m e t e r s , w h i l e ra.w c o t t o n 5ras moving 725 k i l o m e t e r s . On t h e DeUlF- Bomb~~y road, l i v e s ock and mlachinerj were moving a n a v e r a g e of approximately 1,300 k i i o m e t e r s 12 .- - 1/ Surve~ysi n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e ~~ Coal Tra.nsport Stud, v e r e made ~r on r o u t e s comprising 8,000 m i l e s of t h e 15,000-mile n a t i o n a l higliv~ay systein . TABLE 10. Motor Vehicle Revenues and Highway Ekpenditures ( I n m i l l i o n s of rupees) Revenues C e n t r a l Government Fxcise t a x e s and import d u t i e s : Fuel Tires Vehicles Sub-tota.1 S t a t e Governments Vehicle t a x and f e e s S a l e s t a x on f u e l Taxes on ps.ssengers and goods Sub-tota.1 T o t a l Revenues - 2203 Expenditures C e n t r a l Government New investments E4a.intenance Sub-total S t a t e Governments e s Mw i ~ v etments Maintens nce Sub-total Total Fqenditures Source: Interna.tiona1 Bank f o r 2econstruction and Development, "Report of a. Mission t o Review Highway Tramsport Policy i n India.," December 31, 1963, Table 1. 1 TABLE 1 . lumber of I.lotor .Jehicles i n I n d i a , 1950-64 ( I n thousands) Passenger C ommercia.1 Total Cars Vehicles Motor Vehicles Per C e n t Increase 1950-19 64 117.7 - Source: United Nations, S t a t i s t i c a . 1 Yearboolc, 1957 2nd 1943. 196h d a . t ~ f r o a "T!lborldMot o r V e h i c l e Pr d u c t l o n a.nd .?egis t r a t i o n , 1963-64, I f Business 2nd Defense S e r v i c e Administration, Depa.rtment, of Commerce, January 1965. TABLE 12. Production of Plotor Vehicles, 1955-6k ( I n thousands) Passenger Cormnercial Total Cars Vehicles ibiotor V e h i c l e s 1955-56 15 4 1960- 61 26.6 1961-62 23.2 - 1962 63 26.3 1963-64 27.2 1964-65 ( 6 nos.) 15.1 Source : Government of I n d i a , %onomic Survey, 1 943-64, February 1964, Table 1.6; Governmen-t of India., Economic Surverr, 1964-65. - 42. A g r i c u l t u r e has become i n c r e a s i n g l y dependent on over-the-road t r a n s p o r t f o r t h e marketing of p e r i s h a b l e s , On t h e r o u t e from Delhi t o Bombay, f o r example, t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e c l a s s of f r e i g h t was f r u i t s and vegetables. ApproxLmately b0 p e r c e n t of t o t a l tonnage represented products of a,griculture. Other important i t e m were ma.chinery, medicines , e t e x t i l e s , g e n e r a l p r o v i s i o n s , b u i l d i n g m a . t e r i a . 1 ~f~ r t i l i z e r s , t e a , coffee, i r o n and s t e e l . ( s e e Table 13.) 43 The remarka.ble a s p e c t of road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n accomplishments t o d a t e i s t h e f z c t t h a t growth has taken p l a c e d e s p i t e every kind of obstacle: poor roads, inadequate t e r m i n a l s , t h e high p r i c e of v e h i c l e s , high taxes, restrictive licensing policies, ce harassment of v e h i c l e operz t i o n s The ~ ~ ~ n a.t l o c a l o c t r o i and o t h e r c h e c k p ~ ~ roa,ds of I~ d i a a r e probably t h e worst of any major n a t i o n , and r e s t r i c t i o n s on motor tramsport, w h i l e f a i l i n g t o r e v e r s e t h e t r e n d s , have succeeded i n i n h i b i t i n g economic grovth, i e s p e c i a . 1 1 ~ n rura.1 a r e a s . The r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e number of t r u c k s and buses i n I n d i a , i n r e l a t i o n t o p c q u l a t i o n , i s perhaps t h e lowest of any country. There 2,re 7 v e h i c l e s p e r 10,000 i n h a b i t a n t s compared t o 2 1 i n I r a n , 146 i n t h e S o v i e t Union, a.nd 359 i n Japa-no ( s e e Ta,ble a.) R. Condition of t h e Hight~ays - 44- n O t h e 15,000 kilometers of n a t i o n a l highways t h e r e a r e l a r g e s t r e t c h e s of missing roads, missing bridges, u ~ s u r f a c e dmileage, aild s e r i o u s b o t t l e n e c k s a t rai11aa.y grade c r o s s i n g s . Eighty p e r cent of t h e n a t i o n a l highvays a r e one-lane, and many r o u t e s need widening. Nost s t a t e roads a r e i n worse condition, a.nd t h e g r e a t m a j o r i t y of f a c i l i t i e s under d i s t r i c t and 1oca.l governments a r e po.ssa,ble o n l y in t h e d r y season. The Worlring Group on Roads has estimated tha,t t h e p r i o r i t y work t o be accom- p l i s h e d on n a t i o n e l roads a l o n e would c o s t i n t h e neighborhood of U.S. $700 m i l l i o n . ( s e e Table 15.) 45' IJhile t n e r e may be disagreement over t h e s e p r i o r i t i e s , many miles of I n d i a ' s main roads a r e v e r y poor, and mzny a.re h e a v i l y congested. The urban l i n k s of t h e main system a r e n o t o r i o u s l y overburdened r-rith a l l t~ypes of t r a f f i c . I n a d d i t i o n , l z r g e a r e a s of r u r a l India, have a3nos.t; no a-ccess roa,ds a t a,ll. IQrz.iny p e r i d s everything from vegetables t o new i d e z s Ere bogged down i n t h e mud. Kusum N ~ i described t h e o b s t a c l e s t o development r r e s u l t i n g from t r a - d i t i o n a l villa,ge l i f e and t h e changes t h z t f a v o r a b l e circumstances make p o s s i b l e . The most baclcdard v i l l a g e s a r e t y p i c a l l y t h e most i s o l a t e d ~ 5 l l a ~ g e s I n ,Rajas than, f o r example, t h e r e were v i l l a g e s . without a t r a c t o r o r a jeep, and even d r i n k i n g r ~ a t e r was being c a r t e d f o r - 1/ See Hans Adler, "Report of IIission t o Reiiier.3 Highway Transport Policy i n India. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Da,nk f o r Secons t r u c t i o n and Development, December 31, 1963. TABLE 13. Goods Transport by iba.d, Seven Day Survey Tons . Ton-I!ms ( I n thousands) I-!E.u~ ii~e~age (~ms.) I. D e l h i t o Bombay Food g r a i n s F r u i t and v e g e t a b l e s Fodder Cotton Livestock B u i l d i n g ma.terials Oil Sugar Textiles Ghee and vegeta.ble o i l s I r o n and s t e e l I Ia chinem- l'iedicine a,nd chemicals Provisions Other commodities Foodgrains F r u i ' ~a,nd v e g e t a b l e s Yood Oil. I r o n and s t e e l Textiles F e r t i l i z e r and manure Iledicine a,nd chemicals Tea and c o f f e e Cotton Provisions Building rna,terial-s klachinery Other agricu.1. p r o d u c t s Other commodities TABLE I&. Number of Trucks and Buses i n Selected Countries, 1964 Truclts and Buses Country Trucks Buses Total p e r 10,000 Inhabitants India Spain Portugal Greece Japan Tha-iland Iran Turkey Yugos lavie. Czecl~oslot.;.!ria 112,000 Lo, coo Pola.nL L3ums.nia USSR Source : Department of C ommerce , "VJorld P'iot o r Vehicle Production and Registration, 1963-64, Government P r i n t i n g Office, January 1965;. -/ a Includes 869,797 three-wheeled trucks. - b/ Includes t h e number of trucks i n Da.nzig. TABLE 15. Es timsted IJeeds of Hational Highways ( 1 5 , 0 0 0 ) 6 Fs t j m a ted Cost ----I Required Improvements R s . croiles Constructing missing l i n k s , 250 miles (12 f t . pavement) Construction of 25 major bridges Reconstruction and widening of :aeak z.nd narrow minor bridges and c ~ ~ l v e r f o r heavy vehicles (including ts truck-trailers) , giving p r i o r i t y t o major a r t e r i a l and s t r a , t e g i c routes t o t a l i n g 3400 miles :didening t,he ca.rria.geway t o t ; ~ o lanes on a l l major a.rteri.21 znd strc?.tegic routes (6000 miles) Strengthening t h e pavement of h e a v i l y t r a f f i c k e d s e c t i o n s of m . jor 2.rteria.l and s t r a t e g i c routes a (3000 miles) IJidening roads t o four l a n e s on Mationa!. Higk~reg routes nezr l a r g e c i t i e s , 300 miles Improvement of .the low gra,de s u . r f ~ c et o 12 f t. black-top surface, 500 miles Improvement 0 geometric si;andards of t h e e x i s t i n g 1 a.lignments (Lump sun]) Repla.cing e x i s t i n g l e v e l crossings ( 5 1 Nos. ) vhere the t r a f f i c hold-up i s prolonged Constructing by-pa.sses a.rou1d 40 congested torms 50 Constmcting expressvJ2.y (ne3.s ~ a . l c u t t a ) miles Carry-over worlcs from the Third 13ve Tear Plan 50.00 n E x p a ~ ~ s i oof I\?ationa.l Highwa.y Sys tem (3000 miles) Total (U.S.$892.5 million) -/ a Estimates from t h e 1:Jorl;ing Group on Xoads, 1365. m i l e s on t h e backs of camels. Iioad connections between t h e North E a s t F r o n t i e r Agency and t h e r e s t o f t h e country a r e s o s c a r c e t h a t u n t i l r e c e n t l y t h e economy of t h a t r e g i o n rras o p e r z t e d t r i t h bead money. Pic- c o r d i n g t o t h e v i l l a , g e l e a d e r of Iiombong, t h e p e o p l e a r e e a g e r f o r a. r o a d t o Dibrugarh because t h e y rant t o g e t o u t and s e e t h e m r l d . I'Ve d i a ) because we have been ta,ught t o . BJ+, d o n o t sa.y J a i Hind ( H a i l know i t s meaning. T" we I n t h i s p a r t of I n d i a t h e d o c t o r t r a v e l s on f o o t 12 t o 14 m i l e s a, d a y o v e r mountainous t e r r a i n . Ye+, t l i e r e have been many .. improvements s i n c e Independence. The p e o p l e a r e now g e t t i n g d r i n k i n g water, s c h o o l s , and Itabove a l l , roads. .I1 L6. According t o a r e s i d e n t of Boying Vill-age i n P a s i g h a t sub- d i v i s i o n , "we have s e e n t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e o l d and t h e new t i m e s . The main- d i f f e r e n c e is--tha.t we t r y t o u s e our b r a i n s more t h a n oui- f a t h e r s did--we t ~ a n tt o deve op more la.nd f o r p e n a n e n t c u l t i v a t i o n , a.s w e l l a s roads and b u s i n e s s . ? 47. The i s o l a t i o n o f rural I n d i a i s measured b y t h e f a c t t,ha.t o n l y 1 1 p e r c e n t of approximately 500,000 v i l l a . g e s a r e connected w i t h t h e r e s t of t h e c o u n t r y b y a n a l l - w e a t h e r roa,d. Seventeen p e r c e n t of t h e s e v i l l a - g e s a.re more t h a n 1 0 m i l e s from a l l - w e a t h e r r o a d s . Cjne o u t of e v e r y t h r e e v i l l a . g e s i s more t h a n 5 m i l e s from a dependable road connection. 48 . On t h e whole, I n d i a n a t t e m p t s t o improve t h e s t a n d a r d s of r u r a l road t r a n s p o r t have n o t been v e r y s u c c e s s f u l . The Road Develojpmeiit P l a n p r e s e n t e d t o t h e f ? I i n i s t r y of T r ~ m s p o r tand Communications i n 1958 s t a t e d t h a t t h e o b j e c t i v e of t h e program by 1381 should be t o b r i n g e v s r y ~ i l - l ? . g e i n a developed and a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a " w i t h i n 4 m i l e s o f a m e t a l l e d roed and 1.5. m i l e s of a n y road. 113/ Other v i l l a g e s were t o be brought w i t h i n 8 t o 1 2 m i l e s of a s u r f a c e d road, o r 3 t o 5 m i l e s of a n u n s u r f ~ c e dr0a.d. But t h e a.ccomplishrnent of such a program can mean v e r y l i t t l e from a development s t a n d p o i n t . I n many p l a c e s v i l l a g e s t h a t a r e simply brought n e a r e r t o 2.11 a l l - w e a t h e r r w d r a t h e ? t h a n connected w i t h i t a r e h a r d l y much b e t t e r o f f . 1b.ny people riay be a.lmost helped, b u t none r e a l l y helped. 49 - Under t h e Community Development Program a n e f f o r t h a s been made t o move forward t ~ i t h l o c a l road program. V i l l a g e r s have c o n t r i b u t e d a t h e l a n d a.s w e l l a.s 25 m i l l i o n man-days of l a b o r and 2.7 n l i l l i o n rupees i n cash. A f t e r d r i n k i n g w a t e r and s c h o o l s , roa,dbuilding h a s most o f t e n been chosen by t h e fa.imer a.s t h e t y p e of p u b l i c worlts most needed b y t h e v i l l a g e . But t h e Community Developinent e f f o r t h a s been t o o l i m i t e d i n r e s o u r c e s ancl t o o d i s p e r s e d geogra.phically t o have a n impoixta.nt impact. - 1/ Kusurn F a i r , 3lossoms i n t h e Dust, Praeger, p. 128. - 2/ The same, p. 133. - 3/ Report of Chief .'kgitieers on Roa,d Development P l a n s f o r I n d i a (1961-81), New D e l h i , 1958, p 32. . Roads b u i l t under t h e program ha.ve n o t been designed t o l a s t , and no organiza.tion o r funds ha.ve been made a v a i l a b l e t o m a i n t a i n what was built. TABLE 16. P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of Villa,ges by Distance from t h e N e a r e s t kIeta.lled noed i n I n d i a , 1958-59. Dista,nce ( i n m i l e s ) Percenta,ge of V i l l a g e s 1r i t h i n v i l l a g e Up t o 1-1J2 m i l e s Between 1-1/2 and 3-1/2 m i l e s Between 3-1/2 and 5'-3/2 m i l e s Between 5'-1/2 and 10-1/2 m i l e s Between 10-1/2 amd 20 m i l e s Above 20 m i l e s I n f orma.t i o n n o t a v a i l a b l e Total Source : E n i s t r y of Community Development C . Disa-ganiza,tion of F r e i g h t Hauling 5'0 I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e la.& of roads, t r u c k t r a n s p o r t i n I n d i a is- t o a l a r g e e x t e n t d i s o r g a n i z e d . The motor v e h i c l e s t h a t a r e r e v o l u t i o n - i z i n g t r e n s p o r t systems i n much of t h e vcjrld t o d a y a r e symbolized i n India, b y ba.ttered, p o o r l y ma,inta.ined, and overloa.ded veh2cles l i n e d up a l o n g t h e d u s t y roads w e i t i n g t o p a y t c x e s . Substa.ntia1 r e s o u r c e s a.re b e i n g wasted by f r e q u e n t s t o p s and l o n g d e l 2 . y ~ . Only t h e s.bsence of a c c e p t a b l e a l t e r - n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t s e r - r i c e s can e x p l a i n t h e f a , c t t h a t road t r a n s p o r t c o n t i n u e s t o grow i n s p i t e of t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s . 51'. A t r u c k t r a v e l i n g from D e l h i t o Bombay s t o p s 27 t i n e s t o PET/a.n a v e r a g e of 1 0 0 rupees t o v a r i o u s t a x c o l l e c t o r s on tha.t r o u t e . Equipment r e p r e s e n t i n g s i g n i f i c a n t amounts of c a p i t a l and loaded vz.iuable c a r g o i s i d l e 33 p e r c e n t of t h e time. The r e s u l t i n g c o s t s t o t h e truc!c- i n g i n d u s t r y a r e pa,ssed on i n t h e form of h i g h e r p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s f o r i n d u s t r y and a g r i c u l t u r e . 52. The l a c k of v e h i c l e p a r t s a.nd ma.intenance, t h e absence of p u b l i c l y r e g u l a t e d booking a g e n c i e s , t h e o v e r l o a d i n g t h a t r e s u l t s from d i s o r g a n i z e d t r u c k i n g u n i t s a l l r e p r e s e n t a.dditiona1 c o s t s t o t h e n a t i o n . I n a-ddition, t r u c k s a r e now stopped t o check shipments f o r s a l e s ta,x enforcement. Truckers must show t h e o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n of each consignment, and i t s vaLue. D e c l a r a t i o n s a r e o f t e n checked by i n s p e c t i o n of cargo, i n - volving l o n g dela,vs. D r i v e r s roust e i t h e r submit t o t h e de1a.y w h i l e checlcing i s i n p r o c e s s , o r p a y t o g e t through. Pluch of t h e f l e e t i s always immobilized due t o breakdo~,~ns. The nun,ber of commercia.l ve1licl.e~ nmr being produced i s a l s o i n s u f f i c i e n t t o r e p l a c e t h e e x i s t i f i g s t o c k of v e h i c l e s , l e t a l o n e meet t h e i n c r e a s i n g demands r e s u l t i n g from g r o t ~ t f lof t h e economy. The cumulative r e s u l t of t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i s t h a t on ms.ny roads t h e r e i s s c a r c e l y any t r a f f i c . ?Jew roa.ds a r e being b d l t and r e s t r i c t i o n s imposed a t t h e sa.roe time t h a t p r e - ~ e n tt h e i r being used. 53 rm A d d i t i o n a l problems stem f o t h e d i f f i c u l t y of g e t t i n g a t r u c k l i c e n s e d f o r i n t e r s t a t e o p e r a t i o n s . S i n c e e x i s t i n g t r a n s p o r t agencies ( i n c l u d i n g t h e r a i l w a y s ) have t h e r i g h t t o p r o t e s t each i n t e r s t a t e t r u c k - i n g a,pplication, t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n t o be o b j e c t i o n s t o t h e issua-nce of any c e r t i f i c a t e f o r t r a n s p o r t i n g by t r u c k on r o u t e s over 300 miles. G e n e r a l l y only a tempora,ry c e r t i f i c a t e i s granted, f o r one month o r even f o r one round t r i p , w i t h t h e r e s u l t t n a t much time i s wasted I n t h e f r u s t r a t i n g e f f o r t t o rene1.J l i c e n s e s . 1 54 fl c e r t i f i c a t e t o opera.te an a , d d i t i o n a l t r u c k i s o f t e n gi-$en t o a p p l i c a n t s who have no v e h i c l e r a t h e r thon t o o p e r a t o r s i n t h e b u s i n e s s wishing t o expand t h e i r f l e e t s . The r e s u l t i s t h a t 80 p e r c e n t of common c a r r i e r s have only one t r u c k , and t h e r e a.re v e r y few via.ble t r u c k i n g concerns. The one-truck common caXprierf i n d s it inrpossible t o s e r v e t h e l a r g e customer who needs c o n t i n u i n g d a i l y s e r v i c e because such r e g u l a r s e r v i c e cannot be given w i t h only one v e h i c l e . l / Common c z r r i e r firms should be encoura.ged t o o p e r a t e t h e n e c e s s a r y minimum number of t r u c k s t o c r e a t e v i a b l e b u s i n e s s u n i t s . Individus.1. s t a - t e s have arttempted t o e s t ~ b l i s h what t h e minimum s i z e should be. 1Jadra.s a t one time s p e c i f i e d f i v e . L a t e r t h e f i g u r e was reduced t o t ~ r o . Some s t a t e s a.t one time pro\cLded t h a t firms w i t h t e n t r u c k s Irere e n t i t l e d t o a. 10 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n motor v e h i c l e license fees. 55 The C e n t r a l Government has a l s o attempted t o z s s i s t t r u c k i n g f i r m s by p r o v i d i n g t h a t where t h e r e a r e twenty-five t r u c k s under one ma.nagement, o r under a s i c g l e s e r v i c e co opel-ative, t h e s e o r g a n i z a t i o n s could obta.in inrport l i c e n s e s f o r needed spa,re p a r t s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e I n t e r s t a t e Tramsport Commission has r u l e d t h a t a.11 t r u c k s permi%ted t o o p e r a t e over 300 m i l e s should belong t o a f l e e t of not l e s s t h a n f i v e vehicles, but t h i s r u l i ~ g was c o n t e s t e d i n t h e c o u r t s and t h e mcltor v e h i c l e a c t w i l l have t o be amended t o make t h e s t i p u l a t i o n l e g a l . - 1/ S t a t e regula.tions and motor v e h i c l e l i c e n s i n g p r a x t i c e s a r e d e s c r i b e d 1, i n t h e I n d i a Coal Transport Study, Vol. 1 1 pp. 56-60, Surveys 2nd Research, LC. a,nd Coverdale and C o l p i t t s , June 1, 1964. 56 Sta.te motor v e h i c l e a . u t h o r i t i e s a r e o f t e n r e l u c t a n t t o permit l a r g e t r u c k i n g concerns, and t h e i r p r a c t i c e i s t o c o n f e r new l i c e n s e s on a l a r g e number of i n d i v i d u a l a p p l i c a n t s ra,ther than encourage a s m a l l number of la.rge firms. For this reason, i t appears t h a t j o i n t Center- s t a t e d i s c u s s i o n s should be held t o map p'ans f o r encoxraging a more e f f i c i e n t t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y . blith s t a t e cooperz.tion, f o r exainple, t h e Center might provide long-term 101,~-interestra.tes t o companies l i c e n s e d t o o p e r a t e a designa.ted minimum f l e e t . 57. Finamcing i s a. major problem t h a t needs t o be overcome i n any case. A t r u c k may c o s t $5,000, b u t t h e r e a r e no adequate means of ob- t a i n i n g t h e c a p i t a 3 . Investment f i n a n c i n g c m p a n i e s charge v e r y high r a t e s of i n t e r e s t - - 3 0 p e r c e n t i s common--and r e q u i r e payment of principa.1 i n 24 months. Under t h e s e circumstances, t h e t r u c k e r i s d e s p e r a t e t o g e t enough business t o meet h i s pa-yments. He does s o by a c c e p t i n g work from booking a g e n t s which a r e i n a p o s i t i o n t o absorb a h i g h percentage of t h e ra.te p a i d by t h e s h i p p e r . The t r u c k opera,tor i s o f t e n l e f t w i t h t o o l i t t l e t o s u p p o r t a sound business opera.tion. 58 To i l l u s t r a t e , i n Delhi a t r u c k o p e r a t o r w i t h a f l e e t of 65 v e h i c l e s reduced t h e s i z e of h i s f l e e t b e m u s e he could o p e r a t e more p r o f i t a b l y by h i r i n g t h e one-truck owners t o meet h i s marginal need on a day-to-da.7 b a s i s . B y doing so, t h e l a r g e opera.tor avoids tying up h i s c a p i t a l i n new equipment, and 1ea.ves t o o t h e r s t h e time-consunling and c o s t l y t a s k of o b t a i n i n g a c e r t i f i c a - t e . I n a.ddition, he can pay. l e s s t h a n t h e going ra.te when he h i r e s an i n d i v i d u a l t r u c k e r , s i n c e t h e l a t t e r i s compelled t o e a r n whatever he can t o h e l p meet h i s f i n a n c i a l o b l i g a t i o n s . 59 0 Rocad t r a n s p o r t i n southern I n d i a i n d i c z t e s what can be done w i t h an adequate roa,d system and good organization. Southern Roa,dways P r i v a t e Ltd. i n 1,iadurzi owns a,nd operates both t r u c k s end buses. Its 180 t r u c k s and 114 t r a i l e r s o p e r a t e 31,000 miles a day, averaging 227 miles each, and t o t a l t r a v e l f o r t h e t r u c k f l e e t i n 1963-64 was 11,620,231 m i l e s . Only package goods weighing up t o 200 pounds a r e ca,rried. ,%tes a r e t h e same a s t h o s e of t h e railways. The compny ha.s 35 booking o f f i c e s of i t s own a,nd 378 agents. Goods c a r r i e d t o t a l 207,000 t o n s p e r year, i n c l u d i n g y a r n and o t h e r c l o t h i n g m a t e r i a l s , engines, machinery t o o l s , t i r e s , household , a . r t i c l e s , tobacco products and g e n e r a l mercha,ndise . Altl~ought a x e s a r e high, s o a.re p r o f i t s , and t h e company i s a l s o a.ble t o support a, r e t i r e - ment fund, c l o t h i n g , s c h o o l f e e s , medical outlz,ys, bonuses and o t h e r benefits. 60. Notable i n t h e Southern .3oz,d~.rays~ operations i s t h e emphasis on maintenance and management. Modern ~ r o d ~ s h o p s a v a i l a b l e t o a.ssu.e t h a t Zre a l l v e h i c l e s a r e i n good c o n d i t i o c . Overloading i s n o t permitted, and t h e company has supported i n c r e a s i n g road t a x e s f o r t h e purpose of a s s u r i n g a. modern road system. The b e n e f i t s of t h i s p o l i c y have been considerable, f o r 1la.dra.s S t a t e hes a l a r g e milea.ge of good two-lane roads a.nd ma.kes use of modern road machinery i n i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n and ma.intena.nce work. The s t a t e has never had o c t r o i l e v i e s , a.nd a s e p a z a t e highvay department i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e road system. D. S i g n i f i c a n c e of Bxid Transport Trends 61. The growth of motor t r a n s p o r t has introduced a new s t a g e i n t h e development of s u r f a c e t r a n s p o r t i n India,. The r a i l ~ ~ a y s have t h u s f a r been t h e most important t r a n s p o r t element i n t h e g r a r t h cf t h e Ir1dia.n economy. Their c o n t r i b u t i o n has been t h e na.tiorndde d i s t r i b v t i o n of grea.t volumes of coal, ore, and foodgrains, a.nd t h e c a p a c i t y t o accomplish t h i s must be ma.intained and e-xpanded. But now t h e motor v e h i c l e and highvay have r a i s e d t h e q u e s t i o n h o r ~s t e p s can be taken t o make t h e most of new t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Unless t h i s q u e s t i o n i s answered c o r r e c t l y , t h e r e may be e i t h e r overinvestment i n t h e rai1wa.y~ o r underinvestment i n t h e o t h e r t r a n s p o r t t o o l s on which z.ccelerated g r a r t h depends. 62. If s c i e n c e and technology had n o t p r o d d e d a choice, t h e r e r ~ m l d be no problem. A system of railways p l u s bullock c m t s axd o t h e r t r a d i - t i o n a l methods of l o c a l pick-up and d e l i v e r j would c l e a r l y be t h e only ma.j o r t r a n s p o r t p o s s i b i l i t y . But thanks t o advs ncing technology t h e t a s k i s t o a.rrive a,t a. combination of r a i l , t r u c k , and o t h e r tra.nsport methods t h a t w i l l prove most e f f e c t i v e f o r economic and s o c i a l development. The conclusion i s inescapable t h a t a ~ h a t e v e rt h e answer, I n d i a w i l l ha.ve t o p u t grea,ter r e l i a n c e on road t r a n s p o r t r e l a t i v e t o t o t a l t r a m p o r t operations. There i s a l s o reason t o b e l i e v e t h e outcome w i l l be good f o r t h e railways and good f o r Indiam economic development. 63 The s h i f t s from r a i l t o r0a.d r e l i e L T et h e ra.ilways of demends t h e y axe n o t w e l l s u i t e d t o meet and a,t t h e s m e time provide 2 s u 2 e r i o r s e r v i c e f o r business 2nd a g r i c u l t u r e a t lower t o t 2 , l c o s t s of d i s t r i b u t i o n . The speed a.nd frequency of n o t o r v e h i c l e s e r v i c e i s a,n answer t o t h e high c o s t of l a r g e i n v e n t o r i e s a s w e l l as a means of g e 5 t i n g t h i n g s moved promptly. 811-wea,ther motorized s e r v i c e s i n most r u r a l a r e a s w i l l n o t a.dversely a f f e c t t h e railweys . They w i l l s u b s t i t u t e modem f o r t r a . d i t i o n a 1 nethods o r complement l o c a l bullock c m t w i t h l o n g e r h a u l t r u c k t r a n s p c r t t o market o r r z i l heed. I n e i t h e ~ case t h e r e s u l t w i l l be t o incre2.se production, or t h e i n c e n t i v e t o produce, o r t h e recovery of ~ r h a ti s pro- duced but l o s t t o t h e market. The r e s u l t w i l l be t h e c r e z t i o n of t r a f f i c f o r t h e ra.ilways a s w e l l a s f o r t h e tmxcks. For road t r a n s p o r t can s e r v e t o t a p t h e resources of rura.1 Iridia a l o n g r o u t e s vhere t r a f f i c volume could n o t p o s s i b l y j u s t i f y a railway, i r . many cases f e e d i n g t h i s t r a f f i c t o t h e rai1wa.y s y s tern. 64. , I n e d d i t i o n t o p u r e l y t r a n s p o r t considera.tions t h e development of road tra.nsport 2;a.s mmy a . t t r i b u t e s th? t can h e l p t o s t i m u l a t e t h e economy. Among them i s t h e development of investment 2,nd e m p l o p e n t i n t h e s u p p o r t i n g inclus tries--roa.dbuilding, mot o r v e h i c l e producfui.on and operation, petroleum 2,nd t i r e manufacturer, and v e h i c l e r e p a i r and s e r v i c - ;s i n g . These a - c t i v i - t i e s support many r e l e . t e d econoinic a . c t i ~ ~ 5 t i e t h e y c r e a t e s k i l l e d workers and nex entrepreneurs, a.nd t h e y add t o savings a.nd ca.pit2.l. It i s t r u e th2.t t h e automotive s e c t o r under p r e s e n t conditions r e q u i r e s s i z a . b l e f o r e i g n exchange commitments. But n e t r e s u l t s a r e what count. Foreign exchange cen be saved i f improved d i s t r i b u t i o n of f e r t i l i z e r and b e t t e r marketing can help t o grow more food a t home, thus reducing depend- ence on imports. And f o r e i g n exchange can be earned by t h e promotion of exports, which w e w i l l s e e a,re h e a v i l y dependent on improved roa-d t r a n s p o r t . VI. Tra.nspo,-t Coordina.tion - 65. Lf India-n t r a n s p o r t Is t o be e f f e c t i v e l y provided, p o l i c i e s a.nd a c t i o n s with r e s p e c t t o any one method of tra.nsport m i l l need t o be weighed w i t h a,ppropriate consideration of a l t e r n a t i v e s and rela.tionships t o o t h e r - t r a n s p o r t media.. F a i l u r e t o do t h i s may r e s u l t i n wrong choices of invest- ment, unnecessa.ry d u p l i c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s a.nd s e r v i c e s , f a i l u r e t o make e f f e c t i v e use of ner-J technologies, o r n e g l e c t of necessary p h y s i c a l con- nections. To avoid t h e s e r e s u l t s c a l l s f o r coordination--looking a t trans- p o r t a t i o n a s a whole, approaching it a s a. p h y s i c a l sys tern, amd adopting e q u i t a b l e p r i n c i p l e s and p o l i c i e s t o provide ar,d pa,y f o r it. Coordina.tion assumes t h a t investment choices u i l l provide t h e most s u i t a b l e technology f o r t h e t a s k s t o be accomplished, and t h a t d i s t o r t i o i ? ~crea-ted by taxa.tion, subsidy, p r i c i n g a.nd r e g u l a t o r y p o l i c y w i l l be avoided. 66. Coordination can be achieved i n a v a r i e t y of ways. A p o r t has t o and be served by eppropria,te connecting r a i b ~ ~ y highway f a c i l i t i e s . This p h y s i c a l o b j e c t i v e has t o be accomplished through cooperative planning by - those i n charge of investment a l l o c a t i o n s a,s w e l l a s by operating agencies-. the p o r t a u t h o r i t y , t h e s t a t e o r l o c a i p u b l i c biorks department, and t h e ra.ilway. But o t h e r aspects of t h e coordina.tIon t a s k a r e l e s s simply c a r r i e d out. I n me.king p l a n s f o r new investments, f o r example, t h e problem i s t o a r r i v e a t t h e most s a t i s f a c t o r y technological s o l u t i o n from t h e standpoint-. of the dema.nd t o be s a t i s f i e d , t e c h n i c a l p e r f ormance, a.nd resource require- ments. Once t h e investment pl2.n has been made, f u r t h e r e f f o r t s t o achieve a. coordina,ted approach have t o be accomplished through uniform t a x acd fina.ncing p o l i c i e s and through ra,tes and f a z e s t h a t r e f l e c t c o s t s a s near1.y a,s p o s s i b l e . It i s ra,tes a.nd f a r e s , t o g e t h e r with s e r v i c e cha,ra,cteristics, t h a t w i l l then provide t h e b a s i s on : ~ h i c h choices a r e ma,de by shippers and consumers. 67. I n many Znstances e i t h e r t h e choice of t r a n s p o r t metl~cdi s apperent, o r t h e problem of coordination does not a r i s e . The construction of a v i l l a g e access roa.d, f o r example, does not r a i s e t h e question whether a, r a i l w a g should s e r v e i n s t e a d . And i n o t h e r i n s t a n c e s , where two o r more s o l u t i o n s a r e o f f e r e d , n e i t h e r one i s a b l e by i t s e l f t o meet t h e t o t a , l needs. Thus a i r t r a v e l between ma-jor c i t i e s provides such rapid t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n com3ared t o r a i l t h a t it serves a, d i f f e r e n t market. Both methods a r e required, t o g e t h e r w i t h bus t r a n s p o r t , which c a t e r s t o many s h o r t t r i p s on segments of t h e same r o u t e , g e n e r d l y a.t l o v e r c o s t . l h i l e t h e operation of t h e s e p a r a l l e l s e r v i c e s may ca-use t h e casua.1 observer t o a.ssme laxk of c o o r d i ~ a t i o n , a c t u e l l y a.11 t h r e e s e r v i c e s a r e performing t h e i r appropria.te r o l e s , a l l of them a r e necessary t o en adequ2te t o t a l system, and a l l of them a r e c o n t r i b u t i n g t o economic growth. 68. The same i s t r u e of d c p l i c a t i n g road and r a i l f r e i g h t f a c i l i t i e s . It i s o f t e n su-pposed t h a t ro2.d s e r v i c e s p a r a a l l e l t o a ra.il?:ay r e p r e s e n t a,n undesira.ble d u p l i c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s , and tha,t trucking r e p r e s e n t s a more c o s t l y way of providing t h e same s e r v i c e tha,t t h e rai3p:ay o f f e r s . These views r e f l e c t t h e a~ssumptior,t h a t road and r a . i l t r a n s p o r t a r e essen-5ia.ll.:7 t h e same kind of s e r v i c e , t h a t it i s a m a t t e r of i n d i f f e r e n c e whether a. shipment moves by one method or t h e other, and t h a t t r a f f i c m o v i ~ gby road could, by a p p r o p r i a t e r e g u l a . t o ~ y measures, be s h i f t e d t o r a i l . The Role of Truck Transport 69. Vhile it i s t r u e t h a t some t r a f f i c could move e i t h e r this i s not t-me of a l l t r a f f i c . The .railways lia,ve a c l e a r advanta,ge i n t h e ha.uling of l a r g e and heavy o b j e c t s , i n t h e movement of grea-t volumes of .- f r e i g h t , and i n ca-rriage over long d i s t a n c e s . Cayloa.d and t r a i n l o a d ship- ments having a s i n g l e o r i g i n and s i n g l e d e s t i n a t i o n permit t h e rail?r~ays t o o f f e r specia.1 economies end t o enjoy a c l e a r competitive advs,ntage. Thus a ma.j o r p a r t of a na.tiont s i n d u s t r i a . 1 a.nd mineral t r ~ . f f i c s w e l l a s a bulk a g r i c u l t u r a l products move by r a i l , and i n terms of ton-kilometers, t h e r a i l system i n India, es i n most o t h e r c o ~ ~ n t r i e s ,s t h e "backbone" i on t h e tra,nsportation system. 70. But i n a. developing economy where t h e r e i s gror?ing specia,lization of i n d u s t r y 2nd i n c r e a s i n g c o m e r c i a l i z a t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e motor trucl: and high~7a.ynetr.ror!; i n e v i t a b l y a t t r a c t s a. s i g n i f i c a n t pro2ortion of t h e newly generated t r a f f i c . The kinds of things t h a t move by t r u c k include : (1) Commodities th2.t a r e f r a g i l e and ~rrould r e q u i r e c o s t l y p r o t e c t i v e packa.ging i f s e n t by r a i l . (2) value which involve subs t a n t i a 1 Goods of c o n ~ i d e r a ~ b l e worlring c a p i t a l i f s l o ~ rd e l i v e r y by r a i l re+'.'I r e s large inventories. (3) T r a f f i c wliich i s nore chea,ply moved a l l t h e w a y bjr t r u c k ra.ther than t r a n s f e r r e d from t r u c k t o r a i l a t o r i g i n and back t o t r u c k a t d e s t i n a t i o n . (4) Srnall consignments t h a t t h e railrrags a r e not ell equipped t o ha.ndle economically. and expeditiously. (5) Perishs.ble goods t h a t cannot be moved u n l e s s trams- p o r t i s a v a i l a b l e immediztely and t h e t r i p concluded prorqtly. ( 6 ) Shipmeilts t h e t have o r i g i n s and destina.tions a+, p o i n t s dista.nt from t h e r a i l system, brhich could move p a r t l y by. r a i l b u t only over c i r c u i t o u s routes. ( 7 ) 11Za.terials which form a continuous flow from one p l a n t t o a.nother f o r f u r t h e r processing, and which a r e moved by t r u c k i n f r e q u e n t shipments t o meet production schedules. & G o d s mo7Jing i n l i m i t e d q u a m t i t i e s o r over i n t e r m e d i a t e d i s t a n c e s , which would be unduly dela.yed by t h e time r e q u i r e d f o r making up f u l l t r a i n s . (9) A l l f r e i g h t which d e s p i t e lmser c o s t s of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n by r a i l can be moved cheaper by road when a l l d i s t r i - b u t i o n c o s t s a r e ta.ken i n t o a.cco~lm.t. 71. Truck t r a n s p o r t r e p r e s e n t s a. technology which n o t only b e t t e r accomplishes some of t h e s e r v i c e s p r e v i o u s l y provided by r a i l , b u t permits a d d i t i o n a l types of movements t h a t ~ s o u l dn o t have been p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t motorized road s e r v i c e . That t h i s i s n o t always c l e a r i s i r d i c c t e d by a n e x e r c i s e of t h e Plamniqg Commission 1 s J o i n t Technical Gr0u.p f o r Trs nspm-t Plamning. Estima.tes have been made of t h e edded r a i l c a p a c i t y t h a t would be needed i f road t r a f f i c on i n t e r s t a t e roeds were t o be d i v e r t e d t o rail., 1/ I n most cases t h e l i n e c a p a c i t y a.lready exists, and only one o r -L~ro addi- t i o n a 2 tr2,ins (a.nd o f t e n l e s s than one t r a i n ) rzrould be needed t o c a r r y a l l t h a t now moves by roa,d. Yet t h i s t r a f f i c s t i l l moves by r w d , o f t e n a t h i g h e r r a t e s , and t h e reason i s not t h a t s h i p p e r s a r e i n c a p s b l e of making r a t i o n a l choices, b u t t h a t f o r sane types of t r a f f i c r a i l ~ s a y sdo n o t prottide t h e desired services. 72. The problem of coordination, then, i s t h e problem of makii~g e f f e c t i v e use of 2 v a i l a b l e technologies i n a n i n t e g r a t e d t r a n s p o r t netlrork. Because of t h e d i f f e r i n g c h a r s c t e r i s t i c s of d i f f e r e n t t r a n s p o r t methods, t h e behavior of t h e i r c o s t s , and t h e d i f f e r e n t sts.ges of t h e i r developmert, t h e t a s k of a c h i e v i n g a.n e q u a l b a s i s f o r choice i i a p e r i o s of i n n o v a t i o n ~ i s a major challenge. 73. It i s n a t u r a l , then, t h a t t h e r e should be doubts about t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y of p r e s e n t t r e n d s i n t r a n s p o r t . The railways a,re l o s i n g t o t h e t r u c k s t h e t y p e s of t r a f f i c t h a t e a r n a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e s h a r e of t o t a l re7renue, a.nd t h e y a r e being c a l l e d upon t o c a r r y i n c r e a s i n g volumes of f r e i g h t t h a t p~7yless r r e l l . But e f f o r t s t o 'Icoordina.teI1 c2,nnot succeed which attempt t.o f o r c e onto t h e r a i l s shipments which nag move by because road t r a n s p o r t o f f e r s supewior s e r v i c e and l o v e r d i s t r i b u t i o n c o s t s . The apparent c o n t r a d i c t i o n betveen high t r a n s p o r t c o s t and g r e a t e r econmy of d i s t r i b u t i o n z r i s e s from t h e f e c t t h x t t h e manufacturer has many o t h e r m r k e t i n g c o s t s than t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , i n c l u d i z g Insurance, packaging, stor2,ge and i n v e n t o r y c o s t s . The T:G.~. t o reduce t h e c o s t s of d i s t r i b u t L o n i s o f t e n t o pay a premium f o r fas-L door-to-door truc!r t r a n s - - 1/ Pla-raing Commission, llL >Tote on Estimated Volune of Oridnating Goods Trafi'ic by doad a t t h e h d of t h e F o w t h Plar., Ja,nuary 1965, Qpendix I .V porta,tion r a t h e r than pa.y i n d i r e c t l y i n time l o s s and i n v e n t o r y charges when s e r v i c e i s provided by r a i l . 7b. The Pisnning Commission has taken t h e v i e v tha,t it w i l l be necessary t o undertake sane measure of reorga.niza.+,ion of road trms- ,fly p o r t t o s e c u r e coordination, and t h a t llgovernmentls a r e i n gocds t r a n s p o r t w i l l have t o be s i g n i f i c a . n t l y increased. , To t h a t end, it is proposed t h a t t h e Government of I n d i a s e t up a n I n t e r s t a t e 2os.d Tra.nsport Corpora,tion f o r p r o v i d i n g s e r v i c e s on long-distance r o u t e s . Ha.lf t h e ca.pita.1 would be provided by t h e Center, i n c l u d i n g t h e r a i l - ways, and t h e ba.lz.nce by s t a t e governments. W i t h t h e organiza.tion of long-distance s e r v i c e s i n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , it I-~ould become e a s i e r t o ensure c o o r d i n a t i o n bekdeen road and r a i l s e r v i c e s having due regazd t o t h e s u i t a , b i l i t y of t h e s e s e r v i c e s f o r d i f f e r e n t types of t r a f f i c . " P r o v i s i o n i s a l s o made i n t h e Fourth Plan f o r S t a t e noad T r m s p o r t Corporations t o e n t e r t h e f i e l d of goods t r a n s p o r t . 75 If t h e proposa.1 t o coordina,te r a i l a.nd r0a.d t r a n s p o r t i s t c a r r i e d o ~ through inclusi.on of t r u c k opera.tions i n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , it could be done i n e i t h e r of t x o ways. One p o s s i b i l i t y i s f o r t h e re.il~qa,vst o expand o p e r a t i o n s t o i n c l u d e t r u c k i n g i n connection w i t h aba.ndonment of branch l i n e s and uneconomic serv5ces. And s i n c e r a i l - ~,w.g~s a.re o f t e n unable t o f u r n i s h t h e speed 2nd frequeccy of s e r v i c e required by some types of f r e i g h t , r a i l w a y o p e r a t i o n of t r u c k s e r v i c e s permit t h e r a i l v a y s t o s h a r e i n p a r a l l e l t o r a . i l l i n e s ~ s o u l d2 . 1 ~ 0 t e c h n o l o g i c a l chamge. But g i v i n g r a i b a y ina.ne.gement t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o provide motor s e r v i c e s does n o t imply a monopoly of such s e r v i c e s . 76. The problem i s t o convince ra.ilt~ay. mana.gement t h a t t h e futm-e l i e s i n p r o v i d i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a,nd n o t simply r a i l v a y s . T h i s k i n d of i n t e g r a t i o n of road znd r a . i l s e r v i c e s i s befng accomplished i n Ca.nada., i n both t h e p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s . I n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , t h e Canadia-n National ;?ailways a r e o p e r a t i n g tmtcks ( a s w e l l a.s s h i p s and a i r c r a f t ) a.nG ra.te p o l i c i e s a r e designed t o encoursge ti?e economic use of eaxh method. I n t n e p r i v a t e s e c t o r , t h e Cznadian P a c i f i c i s l i k e - wise o p e r a t i n g a l l methods of t r a . n s p o r t i n what; has come t o be known a s a t r a . n s p o r t a t i o n c o i a , m j . The ~a.il?sa_vs have 20 monopoly of t r u c k i n g , h mever. 77. The second p o s s i b i l i t y and t h e p r e s e n t o f f i c i a l proposal would be simply t o o p e r a t e t r u c k s through a p u b l i c coryoration, without any connection wt ih t h e ra.ilwa:ys. But i t i s h i g h l y dubious t h a t such an approz.ch would improve e f f i c i e n c y , a ~ dh e proposa,l misses tile t o p p o r t u n i t y of p h y s i c a l l y i n t e g r a - t i n g t r u c k a.nd r a i l s e r v i c e s . - 1/ Planning Commis s i o n , Transp o r t D i v i s i o n , Pyogramri~esf o r Developmer;+, of Tra,nsp o r t a,nd Communica.t i o n s i n t h e Fourth Plan. 78. P u b l i c s e c t o r trucking could mean signj-fica.nt l o s s e s f o r t h e economj. Large amounts of capita.1 now being obtained from t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n of t r u c k i n g f a c i l i t i e s would have t o be supplied by t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r . The p r i v a t e c a p i t s 1 r e l e a s e d may o r mzy s o t f i n d o t h e r e q u a . 1 1 ~ r o f i t a b l e uses. And a s soon a s i t becomes c l e a r tk.at, t h e p government i s i n t e n t on o p e r a t i n g truclts, t h e r e n1a.y be a g e n e r a l reluc- t a n c e on t h e p a r t of p r i v a t e e n t r e p r e n e u r s t o r i s k long-term commitments of c a p i t a l . A s a r e s u l t , needed t r u c k i n g s e r v i c e s i n t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r might not b e forthcoming, and governtnent o p e r a t i o n s aiqd f i n a n c i a l commit- ments might have t o extend f a r beyond p r a x t i c a l l h i t s . 73. An a d d i t i o n a l problem l i k e l y t o a r i s e from p u b l i c s e c t o r o p e r a t i o n s would be t h e l o s s of personadl s e r ~ i c e h a t s h i p p e r s have come t to ex~ect from p r i v a t e s e c t o r opera.tions . The businessman, fs?rmer, and s m a l l s h i p p e r might experience t h e same s e r v i c e d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h p u b l i c l y operated t r u c k s a s with t h e ra,ilvays. 60. n O balance, p r e s e n t p r o p o s a l s f o r p u b l i c t r u c k i n g 1-ines appea.r t o promise more n e g a t i v e t h a n p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s . The modest p l a n t o opera.te some 3,030 t r u c k s i n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r would achieve n e i t h e r co- o r d i n a t i o n nor c o n t r o l , f o r t h e number of t r u c k s i s i n t h e hundreds ol" thousands. Ilore e f f e c t i v e use of resources i n t r u c k tran,sport would be achieved by t h e r e d u c t i o n of r e g u l a t i o n s and government ninderances, and by t h e i n i t i a t i o n of p o s i t i v e a.ctions t o ma.l;e t h e priva.te s e c t o r function. The l a t t e r c d be accomplished by Increased production of v e h i c l e s a.nd , pa.rts , t h e i n s t i t u t i o n of favora.ble f i n a n c i n g a.rra.ngements a c c e l e r a t i o n of road improvement, s i w l i f i c a t i o n of l i c e n s i n g procedures, and remo~ra.1 of harassments. B. Passenger Transport Coordination 81. I b j o r chenges i n t h e p a t t e r n of passenger t r a v e l and continuing developments i n t e c l ~ n o l o g yhave s u b s t a , n t i a l l y s . l t e r e d f,ie n a t u r e a.nd e x t e n t of t r a v e l t r e n d s . C l e ~ r l y t o t a l view ha.s t o be taken t o pro-~cide a f o r passenger needs and p r e f e r e n c e s , talting maximum advantage of improved methods. .- 82. - the 13 period 1956-63, i n t e r c i t y r a - i l passenger t r a f f i c i n c r e a s e d 10 p e r c e n t , while commutep s e r v i c e s i n c r e a s e d 29 p e r c e n t . There wa.s a s u b s t a n t i a l s h i f t of s h o r t and medium-dis-Lance passenger t r a f f i c t o t h e bus, while long-distznce movements were i n c r e a s i n g l y made by 2.ir. Dui5ng t h e f i r s t ti30 y e a r s of t h e Third Pla.n, o p e r a t i o n s of 1ndia.n a i r l i n e s i n - crea,sed by 1 8 p e r cent, and s i n c e t h e n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of Ca.rs.r.relle a.nd Ecoeing s e r v i c e s on major long-dista.nce r o v t e s has grea.tly e x p s ~ d e dt h e r o l e of t h e a i r l i n e s . TABU 17. ?ail Passenger Trends, 1956/57 t o 1962/63 P e r Cent I n c r e a s e i n Passenger Tr2.f f i c :<?on-suburban Tc5el Central Ea,st e r n Nor-thern North E a s t e r n Eortheast Frontier Southerr, South %ast e r n lies t eyn A l l Indic: ,%ik~ajrs Source: Based on d a t a s u p p l i e d by t h e Pla.nning Ccmmission. - a/ I n c r e a s e s over 1950-59. 83. I n pla.nr,ing f o r f u t u r e t r a . v e l f z c i l i t i e s , t h e p r o s p e c t of f u r t h e r innova.tion i s a, key f s . c t o r . F o r exemple, r a i l facilities a,nd equipment made a v a i l a b l e now w i l l s u r v i v e s e v e r a l gener3>tions of new a i r c r a f t . This me2.n~ t h a t long-term co~nmitmentt o f i r s t c l a s s a d long-haul rzj-bay fa.ci- l i t i e s w i l l ha.ve t o be compared ~Jsithd e c l i n i n g s i r t r a n s p o r t c o s t s re- sultii~g from a.dvzcces in a i r c r a . f t equipment t h a t w i l l become availa.ble i n t h e near f u t u r e . 84. I n r e c e n t y e a r s a i r c r a . f t apera.ting c o s t s p e r s e a t - m i l e h2,ve from 4.5'9 c e n t s f o r t h e DC-3 a.nd 2-45 c e n t s f o r declined s u b s t a , n t i s l l ~ ~ , t h e DC-6 -to a.c a,rerage of 1.5' c e n t s f o r j e t l i n e r s . Severa of t h e never j e t s h ; i e reduced seat-mile c o s t s t o l e s s t h a n 1.3 c e n t s . 3 The c e r t a i n t y of f u r t h e r improvenents i n p e r f orroance end economy i n t r o d u c e s a n i m p o r t a n t f a x t o r i n today s investment d e c i s i on-ma.Mng. 65. C u r r e n t aerona,uticz,l t r e n d s i n d i c e t e t h a t l i g h t e r and more powerful engines p l u s s t r o n g e r a n d l i g h t e r - w e i g h t m a t e r i a l s b5 1. 1 corllbine t o a c h i e v e v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l transpol-t economies i n t h e y e a r s ahead. I'!ew e i r c r s f t available w i t h i n f i v e y e a r s w i l l quadruple t h e pay1oa.d~ of p r e s e n t j e t t r a n s p o r t s . The e f f e c t of t h e s e developments t r i l l make i t p o s s i b l e t o - 1/ U.S. F e d e r a l AvLa5ion Agency, " D i r e c t @crating Costs axd Other Performance C h a . r a c t e r i s t i c s of T r a n s p o r t A i r c r a f t i n A i r l i n e S e r v i c e , If 1963, p. 8. f l y between t h e principa.1 c i t i e s of I n d i a f o r a t h i r d of t h e f a r e charged today. Short-haul j e t s and nev d i r e c t - l i f t a i r c r a f t w i l l g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e t h e number of c i t i e s served by a i r , and w i l l reduce t h e c o s t of ground facilities. 86. n O t h e ground t h e r i s i n g t r e n d toward p r i v s t e passenger trams- p o r t by motorcycle and motorscooter w i l l continue, a s w e l l t h e expamion of bus tra.ve1. These developments i n d i c a t e t h a t many r a i l ~ ~ a iy e s should l n anticipate further declines i n i n t e r c i t y t r a f f i c . 87. The outlook on l i g h t l y t r a v e l e d r o u t e s i s i n d i c a t e d by data. from Piadras ~ t a t c . l / Study of passenger t r a i n operations on 207 t r a i n s on meter gauge revealed t h a t only 6 p e r c e n t covered t h e axerage c o s t p e r k l l o n e t e r of running t h e t r a i n . Forty-one p e r c e n t covered l e s s than 50 p e r c e n t of d i r e c t opera.ting c o s t s . 88. Abandonment of many branch l i n e s w i l l have t o be c a r r i e d out, w i t h buses s u b s t i t u t i n g f o r r a . i l s e r v i c e . Already t h e t r e n d i n t h a t direction is cleer . Passenger-ltilometers by r a i l w a y f o r t h e I.1adra.s r e g i o n t o t a l ab0u.t 8.3 m i l l i o n p e r day, compared t o 26.3 m i l l i o n bus sea-t-kilon1e5ei.s p e r day. A t a n estima.ted 62 p e r c e n t load fa.ctor, t h e buses were s u p ~ l y i n g 16.3 pa.ssenger-kiloneters p e r day, o r double t h e r a i l t o t a l . Altogether, between 1955 2nd 1963 t h e r e was a 7 p e r c e n t d e c l i n e i n t h e m b e r of p2.s- sengers moving by r a i l and an 80 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of bus s e a t s . 89. But r a i l passenger t r a f f i c i s a l s o t h r e a t e n e d on i n t e r c i t y r o u t e s by t h e growth of a i r t r a n s p o r t a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r f i r s t c l a s s s e r v i c e . A i r p o r t t m s i n Fladras S t a t e i n c l u d e bla.dras, Tiruchi, Nadurai and Coim- babore. Only 1Jla.dra.s i s equipped f o r n i g h t fl-ying, and a i r s e r v i c e s by DC-3 and Folrlrer Friendship a i r c r a f t a r e v e r y l i m i t e d . For example, t h e r e i s one pla.ne a day from F4adra.s t o Madura.i v i a T i n c h i . Yet t h e g r m ~ t hof a i r pa.ssenger t r a v e l d u r i n g t h e f i r s t f i v e y e a r s s i n c e s e r v i c e began i n l95e/59 has been from 8,000 t o 24,000. This i s an i n s i g n i f i c a n t volume i n r e l a t i o n t o t o t a l rail s e r v i c e , but pa.ssenger kilometers b y a i r i n 1962/63 were a,lrea,dy one t h i r d t h e volume of f i r s t c l a s s r a i l s e r v i c e . A i r t r a v e l by 1970/71 has been estimated a t 38,000 t o h1,000 pa,ssengers. 90 I n t h e Ma,dras a r e a t h e railways g e t a l a r g e r s h a r e of tota.1 bus- r a i l t r a f f i c on t r i p s of one t o t e n kilometers. I n t h i s category r a i l a.ccounts f o r 53 p e r c e n t of a l l passengers, and bus 47 p e r cent. I n t h e 8 1 t o 90 k i l o m e t e r zone, r a i l accounts f o r 35 p e r c e n t and bus f o r 65 p e r c e n t of t o t a l patrons. - 1/ iqational Council of Applied Economic A2esearch, 3egional Transport - Survey of P$adrc?s Sta-te and Pondicherry, Preliminary geport, November 1964. 91 These a,nd o t h e r d a t a i n d i c a t e t h e importance of coordina.ted p l a n s f o r passenger t r a n s p o r t investments. The o p p o s i t e a,,pproach of planning passenger t r a n s p o r t s e p a r a t e l y f o r each method of t r a n s p o r t w i l l lea,d in- e v i t a b l y t o wrong d e c i s i o n s and wzsted resources through e a r l y obsolescence. C. - Other Coordination Problems - 92. There a r e , of course, o t h e r problems of f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t coordi- n a t i o n besides t h e road-ra.il i s s u e . P o r t congestion i s o f t e n t h e r e s u l t n o t simply of inadequ.a.te p o r t ca.pacity, b u t o f t e n of inadequate f a c i l i t i e s f o r moving cargo away from tie docks quickly. L a d t r a n s p o r t systems a r e hea.vily taxed by delays i n 1oa.ding a,nd unloading opera.tions. The c o s t s of c o a s t a l shipping, u s i n g modern v e s s e l s and mechanized p o r t equipment, a l s o need t o be compared w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e r a i l t r a n s p o r t . 73 . The p o t e n t i a l s of petroleum p i p e l i n e s must 2 l s o be examined. The Planning Commission s t u d y of p i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t i n d i c a t e s tha t f o r high 5 r a f f i c d e n s i t i e s p i p e l i n e c o s t s may be a s low a s 2.6 p a i s e p e r ton-kilometer under optimum u t i l i z a t i o n , compared t o 3 . 7 f o r broad gauge r a i l and 5.5 f o r meter gauge. Where t h e r e i s s p a r e r a i l c a p a c i t y t h e incremental c o s t of moving o i l works o u t t o 2.8 p a i s e p e r ton-kilometer f o r broad ga.uge and 4.1 pa.ise f o r meter gauge, compared t o t h e 2.6 p a i s e f i g u r e f o r nev p i p e l i n e investments . Liapidly i n c r e a s i n g petroleum needs i n c r e a s e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of economical movement by p i p e . TABLE 18. Movement a,nd Use of Petroleum Products P e r Cent Use of Petrol.eum Products by 1750 1960 Agri cul.ture Indus t q r Transport Domes t i c Other Tota.1 Method of TIo-vement P e r Cent of Origina,ting Tons, 1966 13ail Road Pipeline C o a s t a l Ship Tota.1 Source: Planning Commissiofi, Report on Commodity Tra.nsport S t u d i e s , Petroleum, October 1964, pp. 2 1 and 97. D. The Dynamics of Coordination 94 f If rzre look a.t 1 n d i a . I ~ u t u r e and t h e t r a n s p o r t ta-sks tha.t even minimum growth implies, t h e r e i s c l e a r l y no j ~ s t i f i c ~ z t i ofn r t h e negative o connotations of coordination a s a, means of reducing cotnp e t i t i o n and i n h i - b i t i n g t h e growth of new technologies. The need f o r c o o r d i n a t i o n i s not- t o r e s t r i c t , b u t t o h e l p accomplish t r a n s p o r t t a s k s of s t a g g e r i n g propor- t i o n s . I n d i a n r a i l f a x i l i t i e s a r e a l r e a d y o p e r a t i n g c l o s e t o ca,pacity. I n t h e next few y e a r s t h e y w i l l be h e a v i l y committed by- l a r g e i n c r e a s e s of i n d u s t r i a l t r a f f i c . The f a c t t h a t o t h e r tra.nsport media can assime pa-rt of t h e tra.nsport burdens of a. growing economy cam only be viewed a s a boon both t o t h e ra.ilways a.nd t o I n d i a . Road t r a n s p o r t ca.n t a k e over t h e s h o r t - h a u l t r a f f i c , s m a l l consignments, perisha.bles, a.nd consumer goods thak r a i l - tramsport i s i n h e r e n t l y ill-equipped t o accommodate. A t t h e same time, t h e railways can be f r e e d t o move t h e g r e a t volumes of i n d u s t r i a l ra.v m a t e r i a l s and o t h e r bulk commodities which t h e y a l o n e can carry, t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e r i s i n g volume of g e n e r a l merchandise t h a t r a p i d economic grazrth presumes. The development of road t r a n s p o r t v . 6 1 1 mean tha.t mamy p a r t s of t h e country which could n o t p o s s i b l y expect t o be served by r a i l can f o r t h e f i r s t time be provided w i t h t h e m o b i l i t y t h e y r e q u i r e . For only a l i m i t e d system of main i n t e r c i t y r o u t e s wa.rra.n%high-capacity r a i l t r a n s p o r t . 95
World Bank Group · Working Paper
Report to the President of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Development Association on India's economic development effort (Vol. 12 of 14) : Transport policy
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