Morocco - Oulmes - Roummani Agricultural Development Project

Docament of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 13699 PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT MOROCCO OULMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) NOVEMBER 10, 1994 Agriculture Operations Division Maghreb and Iran Department Middle East and North Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used bv recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OULMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Moroccan Dirham (DH) Appraisal Year US$1.00 = 6.0 DH Implementation average US$1.00 = 8.6 DH Completion Year average US$1.00 = 8.5 DH WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS DPA: Provincial Agricultural Directorate DPV: Plant Production Department of MARA DRS: Soil Conservation Program DVRA: Research and Extension Department of MARA ERR: Economic Rate of Return FAO/CP: Cooperative Program: Food and Agricultural Organization INRA: National Institute for Agricultural Research MARA: Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation NPCC: National Project Coordination Committee OARDP: Oulmes-Rommani Agricultural Development Project PCC: Provincial Coordination Committee PMU: Project Management Unit PCR: Project Completion Report SAR: Staff Appraisal Report SMS: Subject-Matter Specialist SAP: Special Action Program TA: Technical Assistance  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. Offia of Dfr.tow-Giwsl Opwatlon Evaltion November 10, 1994 MEMORANDUM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS AND THE PRESIDENT Subject: Project Completion Report on Morocco Oulmes-Rommani Agricultural Development Project (Loan 2217-MOR) Attached is the Project Completion Report on Morocco-Oulmes-Rommani Agricultural Development Project (Ln. 2217-MOR), approved in 1982. Parts I and m were prepared by the Middle East and North Africa Regional Office, and Part II by the Borrower. Oulmes-Rommani was the last in a series of five Bank-supported projects for rainfed area development in different agroecological zones of Morocco that began in 1975. The project's objectives were to increase agricultural production and productivity in rainfed areas, and to raise farm incomes by improving social and agricultural services. The project aimed to promote wood production, fodder resources, and soil conservation, and contained substantial education and health development components. The project was poorly timed. It was approved in 1982 when Morocco had been experiencing serious financial difficulties for several years. All the earlier rainfed projects were acutely short of counterpart funds and Oulmes-Rommani suffered from inadequate funding from the outset. Some restructuring of the project took place at loan effectiveness, and in 1987 the project was revised under a Special Action Program which reduced project scope, canceled social development components, and simplified project design. Despite these changes, retroactive increases in disbursement percentages, and the introduction of special accounts, the project was unable to utilize Bank funds expeditiously. The project implemented was one-fifth the size of the project approved. Nevertheless, in its reduced form, Oulmes-Rommani was able to support increases in cereal production, forest development, and soil conservation. The outcome of the scaled-back project is rated as satisfactory, institutional development is modest, and sustainabiity is uncertain. The PCR is satisfactory, although a number of data are missing because project monitoring recorded little more than the parameters of implementation. The project was audited in 1994, along with three other rainfed projects in Morocco (OED Report Number 12701) and the ratings of the project remain unchanged. Attachment This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OULMES-ROMM4ANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. PREFACE ............................................... EVALUATION SUMMARY . .....................................i PART I - PROJECT REVIEW FROM THE BANK'S PERSPECTIVE ... ...... 1 1. Project Identity ......................................... 1 2. Background ............................................ 1 3. Project Objectives and Description .............................. 2 4. Project Design and Organization ................................ 4 5. Project Implementation ..................................... 5 6. Project Results and Impact ................................... 9 7. Project Sustainability ................................... .. 11 8. Bank Performance ................... 11 9. Borrower Performance ................... 12 10. Lessons Learned ................... 12 11. Project Relationship ................... 12 12. Consultancy Services ................... 12 13. Project Documentation and Data ............................... 13 PART II - PROJECT REVIEW FROM BORROWER'S PERSPECTIVE ....... 14 PART Im - STATISTICAL ENFORMATION .......................... 20 Table 1. Related Bank Loans ................................. 20 Table 2. Project Timetable ................................... 21 Table 3. Loan Disbursements .................................. 22 Table 4. Project Implementation ................................ 23 Table 5. Project Costs and Financing ............................. 25 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the puommnce of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Table 6. Project Results ..................................... 27 Table 7. Status of Legal Covenants .............................. 28 Table 8. Use of Bank Resources ................................ 29 PART mI - ANNEX 1 - STATISTICAL INFORMATION ................. 31 Annex 1: Figure 1-2 ........................................ 31 Table 3-5 ........................................ 32 PART m - ANNEX 2 - NOTE ON ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .... ........... 33 Annex 2: Table 1 . ........................................ 35 Table 2 ......................................... 36 Table 3 ......................................... 37 Table 4 ......................................... 38  PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OULMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) PREFACE This is the Project Completion Report (PCR) for the Oulmes-Rommani Project for which Loan 2217-MOR in the amount of US$ 30 million was approved on December 14, 1982. The project was closed on December 31, 1992, three years behind schedule. A balance of about US$ 802,000 was cancelled at that time bringing the total amount cancelled under the Loan to about US$ 17.3 million. Parts I and m were prepared by the FAO/World Bank Cooperative Programme (FAO/CP) for the Agriculture Operations Division of the Maghreb Department, Middle-East and North Africa Region. Part II will be prepared by the Borrower. Preparation of the PCR was started during a visit by a team from FAO/CP in May 1993 and is based, inter alia, on information gathered by the Project staff and by the FAO/CP team in the project area and through discussions with Project staff and officials of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance and Bank staff associated with this Project, and on a review of the project files.   - ii - PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OUIMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) EVALUATION SUMMARY Background, Objectives and Design 1. The Oulmes-Rommani Agricultural Development Project (ORADP) was the last of a series of five World Bank-funded integrated rural development projects, covering different agro-ecological situations, and aiming at promoting the development of rainfed agriculture which had in the past received insufficient attention. Lessons from those projects were taken into account to avoid the start-up delays they experienced. The objectives of ORADP were: to increase production and productivity in the rainfed areas in order to improve Morocco's self- sufficiency in staple foods; and to improve the living standards of the population by raising farm incomes and by providing better social and agricultural services. The project also aimed to increase wood production, develop fodder resources, and protect the environment by introducing soil conservation practices. During formulation, major consideration was given to integrating crop and livestock farming, strengthening extension and research, and introducing cultivation techniques that conserve soil moisture. Soon after effectiveness in March 1984, the project was reduced in response to the severe budgetary constraints faced by the Government of Morocco during that period. Most of the non-production components were then cancelled or reduced. Implementation 2. The difficult economic situation in the country resulted in serious delays in the implementation of the core project components, which really started in 1987 only. A cadre of determined and well-trained staff was by then in place, and implementation proceeded smoothly, particularly for agricultural extension and forestry plantations. However, due to the initial delays and persistent financial difficulties, a three-year extension was required for project completion, and a total of about US$ 17.3 million had to be cancelled from the loan. Results 3. In spite of delays and curtailments, physical targets of most components left after restructuring were met. The main exceptions were sylvo-pastoral and rangeland improvements which achieved only about 30% of target because of slow adoption by beneficiaries. Moreover, during project implementation, agricultural production in the project area increased sharply,  - iii - chiefly through intensification of cereals. Yields of wheat and barley are estimated to have increased by more than 50%. The project contributed to this through the development of a well- trained and motivated cadre of extension staff, and by facilitating access to credit and inputs. An indicative economic analysis for the agricultural component shows an economic rate of return (E.R.R.) close to appraisal estimates (13.9% , as against 14%). 4. Sustainability of agricultural benefits will be ensured by the Bank-assisted Research and Extension project. Govemment is committed to funding recurrent costs of the support services put in place by the project. On the institutional side, the project helped strengthen the provincial agricultural services and facilitated the progressive transfer of commercial operations from Government to professional organizations, which is expected to contribute to their sustainability. Lessons 5. The project illustrates the difficulty of pursuing too many diverse objectives, particularly in the context of projects which are to serve as pilot experiments. However, by timely restructuring and by concentrating on a single component, extension, which has benefited from continuous attention from Bank supervision missions, the project has probably reached its major agricultural production and income objectives. Other major lessons include: the need to immediately review a project if confronted from the outset with major counterpart funding difficulties; and - the need to plan M&E from the onset, and to integrate M&E activities into annual work programs.  PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OUILIES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) PART I: PROJECT REVIEW FROM THE BANK'S PERSPECTIVE 1. Project Identity Project Name : Oulmes-Rommani Agricultural Development Project Loan No. 2217-MOR RVP Unit MNA Country Kingdom of Morocco Sector : Agriculture Sub-sectors Food crops, Livestock and Forestry 2. Background 2.1 Sectoral context. The Oulmes-Rommani Agricultural Development Project (ORADP) was conceived in the late seventies to alleviate some of the constraints to development in the Khemisset province. It was a follow-up to similar projects" prepared for four other provinces. The ORADP, like the other projects, was formulated following the realization that excessive resources were being directed towards irrigated agriculture compared to non-irrigated farming, although the latter was the mainstay of the agricultural sector. Because of this, non- irrigated farming had stagnated, and increase in agricultural production came as a result of expansion and intensification of irrigation, which accounted only for a small portion of the country's total agricultural output. In the early 1980's when the project was being prepared, about 5.8 million ha were cultivated annually, of which 0.8 million was irrigated. Some 85% of the labor force was dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture, using limited modem inputs and techniques. Given the sheer size of the rainfed sector, it became clear that if significant rbThese included: Meknes (1975), Fes-Karia-Tissa (1979), Loukkos (1980) and Moyen Atlas (1982).  - 2 - progress towards food self-sufficiency and improved living standards of the people were to be achieved, sufficient resources would need to be allocated for its development. 2.2 Macro-Economic Situation During Project Implementation. The Project was declared effective in March 1984, and this coincided with the country's difficult economic period. Morocco imposed a first budget austerity plan from 1978 to 1980 to respond to financial disequilibria. Agriculture projects, in particular new ones in the non-irrigated sector, were either delayed or cut back in size. In the early 1980's, a second oil price shock, a debt crisis and four years of drought compounded Morocco's financial difficulties, deepening the need for austerity in the rainfed projects. The Project suffered from inadequate funding from the outset, thus requiring its restructuring almost immediately after approval. This entailed the curtailment and exclusion of components as indicated below (para 4.4). The funding difficulty lasted throughout 1987, after which a gradual improvement enabled the restructured project to gain momentum and to be completed thanks to a three year extension. 3. Project Objectives and Description 3.1 Poject Qbjectives. The main project objective was to increase production and productivity in the rainfed agricultural areas in order to improve Morocco's self-sufficiency in staple foods. The project aimed to improve the living standard of the predominantly rural population in the project area by raising farm incomes (through increased agricultural and livestock production) and by providing better social and agricultural services. In addition, the project aimed to increase roundwood production and to protect the productive environment by countering soil erosion and forest degradation. The project was to seek to improve the integration between livestock and forest production in the forest state land areas. The project was to cover an area of about 328,000 ha or 41% of the Khemisset province, consisting of about 41% of agricultural land and 48% of forest land. The bulk of the 118,000 people who lived in the project area were to benefit from the project. 3.2 Project description. The project, to be implemented over a five-year period, included: (a) Crop development: increased crop production on some 80,000 ha of private rainfed land through the provision of improved technology, including better soil management, agricultural inputs and credit as well as through strengthening agricultural extension and research. (b) Livestock development: improving livestock productivity by increasing fodder production on the farm and on the forest range, through genetic improvement of cattle, sheep and farm horses and better herd management and animal health. To this end, the project was to construct and staff five breeding stations, two horse breeding stations and purchase 500 selected sheep for distribution to farmers. The animal health program was to include eight dips for extemal parasite control and additional drugs and  - 3 - equipment. Two new milk collection centers were to be provided. The project was also to provide credit for the purchase of feed concentrates, the building of sheep and cattle folds, the purchase of improved animals and the purchase of forage harvesting, silage and hay making. Additional infrastructure was to be provided to an existing cattle breeding station and to a trial pasture area on 500 ha. (c) Irrigation Development: (i) development, rehabilitation and extension of eleven traditional irrigation perimeters by about 600 ha; (ii) equipment for two ten-hectare irrigation demonstration farms; and (iii) studies of groundwater resources and the preparation of detailed development plans for future investments not financed under the project. (d) Forest development and Sylvo-pastoral Improvement: (i) establishment of about 8,000 ha of commercial pine and eucalyptus plantations and 4,000 ha of protection plantations; (ii) introduction of soil protection and erosion control measures including tree planting on about 4,000 ha of state and private land; and (iii) sylvo-pastoral operations on the forest range increasing the quality and yields of timber, cork and fodder in some 12,000 ha of indigenous forest and bush land, by selective thinning and pruning of trees and pasture improvement measures, combined with livestock management and rotational grazing. Basic fire protection arrangements in the project area were to be improved through the establishment of firebreaks and fire towers. (e) Infrastructure: construction of 150 km of new forest tracks and upgrading of 35 km of existing ones; maintenance of about 800 km of forest tracks and 400 km of rural roads; construction/extension of 14 rural markets, health infrastructure and electrification works; extension or new construction of water supply systems equipped with public fountains in 10 population centers and 61 water points in the countryside; and construction of classrooms and teachers' houses. (f) Institutional and Logistical Development of the Agricultural Services: The project was to provide incremental staff, vehicles, offices, housing and other administrative support for four key directorates in Khemisset and the project area. Project actions were also to include: (i) a reform of the extension system and a selective program of intensification including training of extension staff; (ii) the implementation of a research program; and (iii) improved input supply and credit systems. (g) Technical assistance and studies: provision of a total of 26 staff-months of short-term technical assistance in the areas of cork oak management and harvesting, monitoring and evaluation, and applied research, agriculture and extension. In addition, two staff-years of long-term consultancies were  required to assist in the inial implementation of the forest range program. The project also aimed at financing a cadastral survey, groundwater studies and other project-related preparatory studies. 3.3 At the national level, the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (MARA) was to be vested with overall responsibility for project execution. Within MARA, the responsibility for the project was to be taken by the Directorate of Crop Production. Coordination of project activities at central level was to be entrusted to a National Project Coordinating Committee (NPCC), to be chaired by the Secretary General of the MARA, and at the local level by the Provincial Coordinating Committee (PCC) to be chaired by the Governor of the province. The project was to be implemented by the existing agricultural services in Khemisset, headed by the Director of Provincial Agricultural Directorate (DPA), who was to be the project manager. The DPA was to be assisted by a project management unit (PMU), comprising a deputy project manager and the project's six subject-matter specialists (SMS). The education, health and infrastructure components were expected to be implemented by the line agencies. 4. Project Design and Organization 4.1 Project Origin and Preparation. Following a World Bank agricultural sector mission in 1978, a mission from the FAO/World Bank Cooperative Program (CP) visited Morocco in April/May 1979, and identified the ORADP. National and regional teams, formed to prepare the project, were assisted by several CP missions during 1979 and 1980, after which a preparation report was issued in March 1981 and presented to the World Bank for appraisal. The relatively lengthy time between identification and final preparation reflected the complexity of the project, and the deliberate wish to substantially involve the teams in the preparation exercise. Indeed, members of the preparation teams and the agencies they represented closely identified with the project, and this has greatly facilitated project implementation. 4.2 Project Formulation and Design Considerations. Project formulation strived to contribute to the resolution of development problems encountered in rainfed farming by introducing measures that could be replicable in the future. The project approach was to promote the integration of cereal and livestock farming, particularly on-farm forage production; designing a research and extension system to serve the integrated approach; improving farmers' access to credit; and introducing improved cultivation techniques which increase moisture storage and promote soil conservation. At the farm level, project design envisaged to increase crop and fodder production by intensifying crop and animal production on existing farms and by expanding cultivation in the fallow areas. Since the preparation teams had a comprehensive understanding of these concepts, their work was relatively easy and thorough. However, the same cannot be said for the sylvo-pastoral component which did not initially involve thinning and pruning of cork and holm oak forest but only protection of existing trees and plantation/seeding of forage species in open areas. This component was not successfully implemented, perhaps reflecting the lack of preparedness by the staff and by the implementing agencies, particularly by the forest service.  - 5 - 4.3 Three area development projects were under implementation during the formulation of the ORADP. Efforts were therefore made to incorporate lessons learned from these projects. In particular, measures aimed at reducing start-up delays were introduced. These included: involvement of authorities in project preparation, establishment of coordinating committees at the national and local levels, incorporation of project management into the existing administrative services, early nomination of project staff and preparation of the first year's implementation work plan and related funds before project effectiveness. 4.4 The project risks identified at appraisal concerned drought incidence, farmers' adoption of new technologies, participation of the population in the range management techniques and administrative delays. The risk of underfunding which had plagued the three earlier projects had not been taken into account. This was, however, the reason for a major project revision. In 1987, following upon the experience with the three earlier rainfed projects, the project was included under the Special Action Program (SAP) which (i) revised the project scope by cancelling or reducing the non-agricultural components (education, health, rural water supply, electrification and other infrastructure), (ii) retroactively increased the disbursement percentages for civil works until the project closing date, and (iii) included a special account. The restructuring led to the cancellation of a total of US$ 14 million from the loan, also prompted by a devaluation of the Dirham which reduced local costs. In spite of the reduced scope, persistent financial difficulties and the consequent rigid control on fund releases continued to reduce the pace of implementation. Under the Gulf Crisis Assistance Program, disbursement percentages for all categories were increased further for the period September 1, 1990 to the project's closing date. Nevertheless, the project was not able to utilize the already curtailed Bank funds, even after the three year extension accorded to the project, and an additional US$ 3.3 million had to be cancelled between 1991 and loan closing. 5. Project Implementation General 5.1 The project became effective on March 5, 1984, when the key personnel was appointed. In fact, work had already started on studies since 1982, so as to avoid start-up delays experienced by previous projects. However, due to the difficulties mentioned above, progress was initially very slow with the exception of constructions. Development activities really started in 1987 only when budgetary constraints were eased and following the nomination of a project manager who undertook a major re-organization of DPA. With the establishment of task forces for all major components, coordination was significantly improved within DPA as well as with other provincial authorities. Despite these improvements, progress remained very slow on sylvo- pastoral and range improvement activities. Reasons for this emerged only slowly after it became clear that lack of resources was not the real factor, and so the issues with these components could not be squarely addressed. Key implementation parameters are shown in Part III, Table 4.  -6- Agriculture Development 5.2 Rainfed agriculture. Apart from extension, this component included land improvement, improved access to credit and inputs, and support to research. De-stoning and clearing is a recurrent activity, carried out by farmers who try to increase their arable area, and are supported in this by a national program, with no direct project input. As agreed at appraisal, credit eligibility rules were revised in 1984, allowing small farmers better access to credit. This measure was complemented by the progressive opening, from 1984 to 1988, of 8 seasonal credit outlets within the project area, as also stipulated in the SAR; however, the sharp rise in credit uptake dates back to 1984 (see annex 1 fig. 1). Input stores and selling points were established in four extension centers, of which two were already completed by 1985. Fertilizer and seed sales more than doubled during project implementation (annex 1, fig.2). 5.3 Extension and Research. The upgrading/strengthening of agricultural centers and sub-centers took place as foreseen in the SAR. The agricultural school of Tiflet was reinforced as foreseen and a new training center was constructed in Khemisset with savings realized under the training component of the Project. Local training of extension staff took place starting in 1985, then in 1990 and 1991. But it is only in 1987 that incremental staff (9 versus the 37 foreseen) was assigned to the project, and the first project vehicles made available. Also in 1987, the organization of extension was improved: staff was redistributed over the project area according to clear criteria, precise terms of reference were given to staff and supervisors, and annual programs and targets were set. In 1988, extension was further reorganized to reach a larger audience through a group approach where this was deemed possible, while the pilot farms approach was discarded. The number of groups reached 575 in 1992, with an average of 8 members each. In parallel with this, mass extension through the souks expanded steadily and was estimated to have reached some 32,000 farmers in 1992. These activities were supplemented by visits (e.g. to research stations), field days, and winning-prize competitions; the total of such events increased from 42 in 1985 to 154 in 1992. Despite the staffing shortages and the weak training program, the reorganized extension service put in place under the project was one of the most successful and was able to work with farmers effectively. 5.4 A three-year contract was signed by the DPA with the National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) for the period 1989-91 for research support to project activities. This concerned mostly a research program on cereals, fruit trees, forage crops, pulses and the physical environment. A complementary program has been carried out since 1986 by extension staff with support from the Plant Production (DPV) and Research-Extension (DVRA) Departments of MARA, which encompassed trials as well as demonstrations of new cereal varieties, of new crops (triticale, sunflower), and of different land preparation techniques. Trials and demonstrations have been planned to meet farmers' demand for new techniques or problem solving. 5.5 Monitoring of extension has been increasingly refined since 1989, and this has enhanced discipline and motivation. However, attempts at impact evaluation started only in 1991, and cover adoption rates of major themes, not their impact on adopting farmers. A survey of 154 farms was carried out in 1991, but has not been analyzed yet.  5.6 Irrigated Agriculture. The program of development and expansion of small irrigation schemes was reduced due to insufficient water resources. Five schemes of the 11 foreseen in the SAR were cancelled. Rehabilitation and extension works were completed for the six remaining schemes over a total area of 163 ha. These schemes were taken over by the extension team to ensure the organization of the beneficiaries and to follow development of the land. Studies on groundwater resources carried out in Oulmes also showed no prospect for irrigation development and were cancelled for the Tanoubert basin. 5.7 Livestock. Project management emphasized veterinary aspects in the earlier years of implementation. Only two dips were installed for external parasite control versus the eight foreseen. Instead, the project demonstrated spraying techniques, which are reported to have been now largely adopted by sheep owners. The project also demonstrated internal parasite control; livestock owners are reported to be now aware of benefits and to carry out anthelmintic treatments. There is, however, no record of adoption nor any evaluation of impact. Project vehicles, mostly procured after 1988, increased staff mobility and vaccination performance. 5.8 Most of the envisaged bull and stallion centers were established in the first year of project implementation. However, few breeding animals could be found, and were bought in 1991/92 only. Initially conceived as under government responsibility, the centers and the breeding animals are now being transferred to producer groups. This is also the policy for the few (154) Timadhit sheep bought by the project, also in 1991/92. 5.9 The key constraint, nutrition, was to be addressed essentially through an expansion of forage crops, on which the project had no influence and through sylvo-pastoral developments, which were cancelled (para 5.12). Feed concentrates and forage harvesting, silage and hay making activities started in 1991; the units and related equipment which were established for feed concentrates, silage and fanage did not function due to the drought and to the availability of subsidized feed concentrates. These units have now been entrusted to cooperatives. In addition, the project carried out demonstrations of overseeding and fertilization of pastures, and a test on improved pasture establishment. The economics of such techniques remain to be studied. 5.10 Milk collection capacity development was pursued as scheduled: two collection centers were built and equipped in 1985, and three existing centers equipped in 1988, raising total capacity from 2,500 1 in 1982 to 11,200 1 at present. This was in anticipation of a rapid increase in milk production. While production has likely increased in the project area, this increase is mostly during the peak lactation season, when the cooperatives have difficulties selling the milk; then many farmers sell to door-to-door salesmen. As a result, these facilities are used well below capacity. Forest Development 5.11 Although partially affected by the general budgetary constraints, the program of plantations proceeded relatively smoothly from the start of the project, and was virtually completed at closing date. The distinction made originally between production and protection  - 8 - forests was soon discarded, on the ground that both types of plantations had similar soil preparation, tree density and establishment cost. In fact, plantations were established without any clear management plan. An inventory of new plantations is now being carried out. Due to successive droughts, particularly in 1986/87 and 1991/92, establishment rates have been low, and yields are expected to be significantly lower than estimated at appraisal. The forest road program was curtailed after project restructuring; instead, the maintenance of existing roads has been expanded. 5.12 By contrast, the large (12,000 ha planned) sylvo-pastoral component was delayed by several years because of the difficulty to find contractors for thinning and pruning. The reluctance of forestry staff to undertake activities leading to increased use of forests by graziers also contributed to the delays, but this was acknowledged only in 1988, after DPA's re- organization. In that year, responding to earlier Bank suggestions, visits were paid by project staff to nearby successful sylvo-pastoral developments undertaken by the Middle-Atlas project. A program of 1,400 ha was then started, for which contractors were found. Project foresters felt that there was insufficient information on how to carry out such development but were reluctant to use the envisaged technical assistance input, insisting on the need to build references on local experience. The work was finally entrusted to Hassan II University in 1991; as there had been little progress by 1992, the component was cancelled, and funds re-allocated to forest plantations. Communal range improvement, which was entrusted after 1987 to livestock staff, encountered similar difficulties and was abandoned due to the refusal of rights holders to give up the land. It was later replaced by a demonstration of pasture establishment on 900 ha of mostly parastatal farms (para 5.9). 5.13 The soil conservation (DRS) program on agricultural land met with initial opposition from farmers who feared for their land, as this was to be partially terraced by the project, planted with fruit trees, including olives, and protected from animals for several years. This was resolved after numerous meetings and visits to the Middle-Atlas project, and the component became very successful. Plantation of olive trees was financed by a national oil project which also provided the trees. A total of 4,190 ha were terraced and planted from 1986 to 1990, as against a total of 4,000 ha initially foreseen for DRS. Part of the program was carried out on relatively flat land where erosion was not severe. Other Components 5.14 Constructions (Institutional Support). The project provided for the construction of a large number of offices, stores and houses, mostly outside the provincial capital. This program was initially little affected by budget restrictions, and proceeded swiftly during the first three years. However, delayed payments discouraged contractors, and progress became much slower in subsequent years. This was progressively resolved and the program was essentially completed before loan closure (see table 4). 5.15 Cadastral Survey. Aerial photography was completed in 1984, and ground surveys started in two communes. Due to budget reductions, the work was limited to areas with potential for land consolidation within the two communes, and responsibilities handed over to  -9- the 'Service du Cadastre". 6. Project Results and Impact 6.1 The inclusion of economic and social infrastructure components into an already complex project stemmed from the desire to foster economic development and improvement in living conditions in an area which had been largely neglected in the past. After project restructuring, these programs were pursued by line agencies who have now become more active in the project area. The rest of this section will thus focus exclusively on the development and resource management aspects of the project. Rainfed Crop Development 6.2 Rainfed crop development was to result from: area expansion; a shift towards fodder and pulses; and yield increases. Area has indeed expanded, although this was not clearly influenced by the project. Cropping patterns have also changed, but this was in favor of cereals, particularly bread wheat, while pulses remained stable, and fodder crops lost some ground. The reasons for such changes have not been investigated. They seem to involve three series of factors: (i) national policies favoring bread wheat; (ii) the importance of staple cereals for small- scale farmers: although those farmers have insufficient feed, they cannot afford to grow fodder crops; by contrast, large-scale farms have more abundant feed supplies from crop residues, and less need to grow fodder; and (iii) yields of pulses have remained stable over the last decade, reflecting the comparative paucity of appropriate varieties and technology for legume crops, as opposed to cereals. 6.3 By contrast, yields of cereals (annex 1, fig. 4) have increased remarkably during the past decade, as a result of the use of improved seeds, increased fertilizer rates, better land preparation, and weed control. The project has contributed to this through improved credit and input availability as well as through well-organized extension work by competent staff. Arguably, some of these changes would have occurred without the project". However, it is reasonable to assume that adoption would have been significantly slower, particularly among small- and medium-scale farmers. This is particularly true of the more demanding changes, such as using a chiesel plow instead of a cover crop tool, so as to deepen tillage and thus promote water infiltration as well as root growth. Numerous on-farm trials, demonstrations and visits were devoted to this technique, which is being adopted by a growing number of farmers. Livestock Development 6.4 Project activities in nutrition and genetic improvement cannot be expected to have had, directly, any significant influence on livestock development. The envisaged sylvo-pastoral and range developments did not take place on any significant scale. The distribution of improved animals was late, involved very few animals, and is not expected to make a significant v It would seem that cultural practices and yields had already started to change between the time preparatory surveys were made in the late 70's and project effectiveness in 1984.  - 10 - difference unless nutrition is improved. Activities in the veterinary field may have been more fruitful; the project has allowed staff to be employed more effectively through increased mobility and access to drugs. As originally conceived, with free services and distribution of medicines, these activities would not be sustainable; but national policies have changed during the implementation period, and private services are now expanding rapidly. 6.5 This generally bleak picture should not hide a number of potentially important developments. First, silage, hay and feed processing (straw chopping and blending with urea and molasses) units, now operated by cooperatives, could play a large role in providing year- round quality feed, as this could alleviate an increasingly serious marketing problem by levelling out milk production. However, the feasibility of such techniques depends on national price policies on industrial by-products (molasses, beetroot pulp)". Second, some useful extension work has started on pasture improvement (although much remains to be done in terms of broadening the range of techniques proposed and measuring physical and economic results) and on genetic improvement through support to producers groups and competitions. Finally, increased reliance precisely on cooperatives and producers groups should likely compel technicians to pay more attention to farmers' views and increase the sustainability of project activities. 6.6 The lack of a clear strategy for livestock development was a major reason for a confused approach and mixed results. This was perceived during implementation and became a recurrent theme in supervision reports since 1986, but to little avail. In fact, putting together a livestock strategy for the project was difficult without re-assessing national policies for the subsector, which could hardly be achieved in the framework of an area development project. The staff's lack of familiarity with and attention to market mechanisms only compounded the problems by focusing activities towards purely technical goals. Forest Developments 6.7 Basic fire protection was strengthened under the project through the establishment of observation posts and purchase of necessary equipment. While physical targets of establishing plantations were achieved, a proper evaluation of this component should await inventories which have not yet been completed. Two remarks are, however, in order. First, the envisaged targets were modest, relative to regular Government programs which involve some 5,000 ha annually. This guaranteed implementation capacity, but weakened the rationale for inclusion in the project. Second, introducing management plans in the large state forests which had no such plans (about 100,000 ha), was considered an important long-term objective, involving the adoption of quick reconnaissance surveys to supplement existing data. This objective has not been achieved. 6.8 The DRS fruitiere program has in the end attracted sizeable interest from farmers and oil cooperatives have been created to ensure the maintenance of the plantations. The success Iv In addition to rmgular subsidies on thewe by-products, there are special drought relief programs supplying livestock owners with cheap imported feeds. TIe project feed units were idle during the mission's visit because of such a program, put in place following the severe 1991/92 drought.  - 11 - of this program can be attributed to expected returns from plantations. Sylvo-pastoral developments, limited to 5% of initial targets and to thinning operations, can at best provide information on the influence of thinning on forage yields, if adequately monitored. Economic Returns 6.9 Notwithstanding the near absence of reliable data on project impact, an indicative economic analysis was carried out on the agricultural element, based on benefits from cereal intensification ". The analysis results in an ERR of 13.9%, equivalent to the appraisal estimate although agriculture had to support all project investment costs. 7. Project Sustainability 7.1 The Government is clearly committed to funding recurrent public costs for maintaining agriculture support services as well as forest plantations. In addition, project activities in extension are being further expanded through support from the Research and Extension project (3036-MOR); this will be particularly important to sustain motivation and to ensure continuing research support. Commercial activities relating to animal breeding and feed production have all been transferred to cooperatives or other producer organizations. 7.2 The sustainability of agricultural intensification also depends on continued availability of inputs and on access to markets. With the progressive liberalization of markets and prices which was supported by two sector adjustment loans, this condition is increasingly being met. 7.3 On the institutional side, the good organization and management system put in place in the Khemisset DPA serves both as an example for other DPAs to emulate, and to attract new projects to the province, as it is known that these will be properly executed. Through such projects, the province has access to new resources, which also contribute to maintaining staff morale. As already noted, the policy of entrusting producers organizations with services heretofore ensured by government agencies should promote greater responsiveness and durability, although the move is too recent for proper evaluation. 8. Bank Performance 8.1 The project benefitted from continuity, regularity and focus in the Bank supervisions. The focus, as is shown in mission composition (Table 8b), was on agricultural extension, a component which became successful thanks to such support. Given limited resources for supervision, this was a wise choice, originating from implementation experience in the four other integrated development projects (Fes-Karia-Tissa, Meknes, Middle-Atlas and Loukkos). However, if the difficulties associated with other components were apparent from the onset, then why was the project not simplified right from the start? Part of the answer lies Basic auumptions, mnethodology and results are discussed in a separate working paper. The results are sumnarized in Table 6 of Part ml.  - 12 - in the fact that those projects suffered numerous delays, and did not yield very clear lessons before their joint review in 1985. While the emphasis on extension was justified, it is unfortunate, given the competence and dedication of project staff, that stronger support was not extended to other important areas, in particular those contributing to improved livestock nutrition. 8.2 The Bank proved responsible and flexible in modifying project design and reducing project scope in the face of mounting budgetary difficulties. However, this was not done in a systematic way. A re-formulation process based on a full review could have avoided to carry along components such as sylvo-pastoral activities which are complex and require thorough studies of beneficiary organization and range management systems. The measures taken to improve the financial situation under the Project (a special account and higher disbursement percentages) had little effect. This was because procedures remained cumbersome until 1990 and were not well understood by MARA or the DPAs. Certainly, this could been resolved earlier with proper advice from the Bank. 8.3 The Bank did much to ensure that the project would take best advantage of the experience of previous projects and of the facilities they could offer for training. In particular, visits organized to Middle-Atlas DRS activities have been instrumental in raising interest for similar activities in Oulmes Rommani and to overcome local resistance to this component. 9. Borrower Performance 9.1 Whenever project objectives were shared with the Bank, Government pursued them with equal determination. This involved in particular the nomination of competent and dedicated staff, and their support by headquarters administrations, as well as the allocation of other needed resources to the project, to the extent this was possible during this difficult period. 9.2 The failure to carry out M&E beyond the mere recording of implementation parameters, already noted, deserves to be emphasized, since evaluation is essential to ensure that real objectives are not lost sight of and to build experience for future action. Similar difficulties were encountered with the previous regional projects. This seems to be a recurrent issue, in which external consultants can be of limited help if there is no local commitment. 10. Lessons Learned 10.1 Using existing regional government institutions for project implementation allowed to strengthen these and contributed to project sustainability. DPAs such as the Khemisset DPA which have successfully carried out a Bank project are considered as more efficient and receive more national resources than others. 10.2 This project also illustrates the potency of well-conceived and organized area development activities, provided economic conditions, including national policies, are favorable. Cereal intensification is a case in point. By contrast, livestock development has been little successful, in spite of dedicated and technically competent staff. It is hoped that the interplay  - 13 - between local development and national policies would become more apparent to policy makers as well as to technicians, and thus the need on one side for sectoral strategies, and on the other side for constant attention to economic evaluation of proposed technologies. 10.3 The Project illustrates the difficulty of pursuing too many diverse objectives, particularly in the context of projects which are to serve as pilot experiments. However, by timely restructuring and by concentrating on a single component, extension, which has benefited from continuous attention from Bank supervision missions, the project has probably reached its major agricultural production and income objectives. Other lessons include: (i) the need to immediately review a project if confronted from the start with major counterpart funding problems; (ii) the value of focus and continuity in project supervisions; and (iii) the need to plan M&E from the onset and to integrate M&E activities into annual work programs. 11. Project Relationship 11.1 The relationship between the Bank and the Borrower was excellent at various levels. The relationship between Bank staff and Project staff has always been particularly good. 12. Consultancy Services 12.1 Outside of consulting services for studies and design work for infrastructure, which were satisfactorily carried out, the project envisaged a total of 48 man-months of short-term technical assistance (TA) for cork-oak forest management, research and extension, livestock and M&E, and two years of long-term assistance to assist in the initial implementation of the forest range component. All TA, except for M&E, was cancelled during project restructuring in 1987 and this also hampered project execution. Technical assistance for M&E, mostly in the form of training, produced few tangible results. The training was initiated in 1989 only (this was the initial closing year), underlining the low priority given by project management to this activity (para 9.3). 13. Project Documentation and Data 13.1 The involvement of project authorities in the project's preparation and the fact that the general principles of the project and its objectives (with the notable exceptions of sylvo- pastoral works) were well understood by all officials concerned, greatly contributed to the understanding of the appraisal document, which proved a useful guide during implementation. For the PCR, the DPA collected satisfactory information on the physical implementation of the project. This, however, could not make up for the paucity of data on the impact of project activities, as should have been produced by M&E, and thus no accurate project impact analysis can be envisaged. The final audit report received in January 1994 was satisfactory.  - 14 - PROJECT COMPLEIION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OUIMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) PART II: PROJECT REVIEW FROM THE BORROWER'S PERSPECTIVE (Translated from the Original French Version) (a) Verification of the data in Parts I and II: The data presented in the project completion report are consistent with those at the Khemisset Provencial Agricultural Directorate (DPA), with the exception of several data in Table 4: Proiect\ Implementalion. (lhe figures in Table 4 have been corrected to reflect these changes). (1) Under "equipment": The figure should be 500 units of improved sheep and not cattle (the titles should be reversed). (2) With regard to market construction/improvement, only 4 of the planned 14 operations were carried out, and the rest were cancelled. (3) The construction of water points is not shown: *Planned: 61 units *Actual: 27 units (4) With regard to small and medium-scale irrigation: Of the 11 perimeters estimated at appraisal, only 6 were maintained: -New Perimeters Schemes: 400 ha completed: 0 -Rehabilitated perimeters: 160 ha completed: 163 ha (5) Housing: *Estimated: 73 units *Actual: 48 units (instead of 46) (6) Education: *Estimated: 188 units *Completed: 86 units (83 classrooms + 3 residential buildings)  - 15 - (7) Pasture Land: A distinction should be made between: i) Pasture land inside forest areas *Actual: 2,000 ha *Estimated: 300 ha ii) Improvement of pasture land outside forests *Actual: 490 ha experimental *Estimated: 900 ha extension (b) Comments on Part I: (1) Project design and organization (pp. 4-5) In general, the report accurately reflects main project issues, in particular with regard to problems encountered. As project implementation was carried out during a particularly difficult period for the economy, in which the situation in the agriculture sector was exacerbated by drought. These two major constraints had a significant impact on the implementation of project activities during the initial investment period (1984-1989). Nevertheless, the cumulative delays were eliminated when changes were made to the program. This was possible thanks to: - an extension of the duration of the project, decided by mutual agreement with the Bank in 1989; - a better general financial situation that made possible early notification of credits and compliance with payments to the enterprises; the establishment of a special account and improvement in the repayment rate; closer coordination with the Ministry of Finance at both the central and regional levels; - streamlining of IBRD's contract monitoring procedures, with the Ministry of Finance being able to establish project eligibility. Overall, given these constraints, the report paints an entirely positive picture, which the project management shares with the evaluation mission.  - 16 - (2) Project implementation and impact *p.7, para. 5.5 [French version]: It is stated that monitoring of extension did not consider the impact of the techniques adopted. The impact study is scheduled for 1995. *p.8, para. 5.8 [French version]: It should be pointed out that the genetic improvement program based on distribution of Timadhit breeding rams has made stockfarmers more aware of the importance of establishing pure bred herds and the need to promote the establishment of stockraising cooperatives with a view to membership in ANOC. *p.8, para. 5.10 [French version]: With an expected increase in milk production, it was planned to expand and rehabilitate small and medium-scale irrigation perimeters, purchase purebred breeding animals by the stockfarmers and improve the local breed in conjunction with the bull and stallion centers. The small and medium-scale irrigation program was partially implemented (163 ha of the 600 ha planned), and fell behind schedule; the purchase of heifers was limited by the limited credits granted by the CNCA, which made its approval contingent on the existence of on-farm irrigated forage crops. The male breeding animals for the bull and stallion centers were purchased only in 1991/92; only 2 breeding animals of the 20 planned were purchased, which accounts for the under-utilization of the milk collection facilities that were built. -p.8, para. 5.11 [French version]: Forest development. Beyond the effects of the droughts, the low establishment rates were due to a dearth of studies, in particular on the soil and socioeconomic conditions, which would have identified the constraints and species to be planted. In addition, the management plan was drawn up only after a long period of irrigated parameter development (up to 15 years for conifers). It is also necessary to schedule regular maintenance at least three years after contract execution. *p.9, para. 5.12 [French version]: With regard to the sylvo-pastoral component, for which a program involving 12,000 ha had been planned, the following difficulties should be noted: - The recruitment of the expert envisaged by the appraisal report (paras. 4.16 and 5.13) for a two-year period did not become reality. The expert was to carry out the perimeter development study, monitor implementation and conduct training for personnel.  - 17 - - As the techniques for the establishment of the program were not fully mastered, the project first trained a joint technical team that became operational only in 1988. As such, the operations began very late and involved only 1,400 ha and not the 580 ha indicated in the report. - The pasture land improvement program that originally envisaged experimentation on 500 ha of communal land was abandoned, in the wake of the refusal of the right holders to give up the land. It was replaced by the 900-ha program established in conjunction with SNDE and ANOC, as indicated in the PCR. - The situation described in Bouhssoussen (Middle Atlas Project) is no longer valid. The forest users are fully familiar with the system and its organization. It was difficult to transfer this experience to the project area without an indepth sociological study. There should also be sufficient time for the local population to adopt the rangeland management system. - The lack of reliable data on the impact of the various forestry operations on oak trees (pruning, thinning, clearing out, etc.) sparked a certain amount of prudence on the part of the forest agents responsible for environmental protection. The preliminary studies should have been carried out first. In this respect, performance of the contract with Hassan II University should have been completed for the resumption of the sylvo-pastoral improvement works that were necessary to make up for the fodder deficit and protect the forest, with involvement on the part of the local inhabitants. *p.10, para. 6.2 [French version]: With regard to the increase in area planted to cereals, pulses and fodder crops, it should be noted that in addition to the reasons mentioned in the PCR, stagnation in the area planted to pulses is also due to the following constraints: - Techniques for controlling pests, primarily choke-weed and anthracnose, are difficult for the farmers to master. Extension activities continue, but the ideal solution is making resistant varieties available to the farmer: - the un-availability and high cost of selected seed; - the high cost of plant health products. With regard to the area planted to fodder crops, there is also the problem of the unavailability of high-performance varieties from INRA for rainfed zones and a dearth of selected seed on the market.  - 18 - (3) Project sustainability: (p.12, para.7.1 [French version]) It should be stressed that the Oulmes-Rommani project made a major contribution through its human and especially financial resources to the establishment and implementation of the extension master plan (training and visit system). The Mara Plant Production Department should ensure the sustainabiity of the achievements of the Oulmes-Rommani project by ensuring the operation of the system and the personnel involved. (4) Monitoring and Evaluation: (p.14, para.9.2 [French version]) The monitoring and evaluation system should be set up at the time of project preparation, and the necessary human and physical resources allocated. (c) Bank performance during project implementation: The Bank was involved on an ongoing basis in the monitoring of the project, as demonstrated by the number of missions made during the life of the project. Certain areas received greater attention than others. Thus, the extension component received constant support, which was a major factor in its success. Similar support would have been also useful in the reworking of the project, as early as 1985 during the sectoral review of projects. This point was adequately discussed in the report (p. 13, paras. 8.1 and 8.2 [French versioni). (d) Performance of the Borrower during project implementation: Despite the implementation difficulties, the project nevertheless succeeded in making certain achievements, primarily: - the establishment of an effective extension system. The main improvements made under the project involved the reorganization of extension structures, planning of extension actions and the establishment of an outreach extension vulgarisation approchee system. These efforts were recognized internationally after a gold medal was awarded by FAO to the Khemisset DPA. - the completion of a large-scale reforestation program and DRS fruitierer with a view to protecting natural resources and the environment. Some 15,800 ha were affected in this connection. - the establishment of support infrastructure, the return on which must be maximized through maintenance actions focused on intensification, development of agricultural production and occupational support.  - 19 - The main lessons to be drawn from this project are summarized briefly below: - The involvement of several technical departments at times caused coordination problems. In order to reduce these difficulties, the modalities of coordination should have been clearly defined and the coordination accepted as an important aspect of the project. - The participation of the target groups in the various project phases (design, startup, implementation and operation) is a fundamental goal and key to the project's success. - The five-year implementation period is a constraint in a project of this scope. In point of fact, the strategy for this type of project, which is centered on increasing agricultural production, depends essentially on the establishment of new extension structures. The establishment of these structures generally takes more time than expected, which from the outset causes a slippage in other development operations. - The development of a monitoring and evaluation system that is well designed and easy to use is essential as a tool for both management and evaluation, especially in a complex project of this type. * More specifically regarding this project, the high turnover of managers (in the departments) had a negative impact on the continuity of project operations. (e) Relationship between the Bank and Borrower: Under the Oulmes-Rommani project, relations between the Bank and the Government of Morocco at various levels were excellent, which enormously facilitated implementation.  - 20 - PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO OULMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) Part m: STATISTICAL INFORMATION Table 1. Related Bank Loans Loan/Credit Title Purpose Years of Status Approval l Loan 1602-MOR Fes-Karia- Improve rural income and social well-being of 33,900 Tissa Agriculture Project farm families in the project area through improvements to research, extension services, credit and input FY78 Closed 06/30/90 supply, as well as through investments in infrastructure such as roads, schools, health facilities, and water supply _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Loan 1848-MOR Improve the agricultural systems prevailing in Loukkos Loukkos Rural Development watershed into sustainable systems by alleviating the. Project destructive effects of soil erosion and increasing FY80 Closed December agricultural productivity and incomes of poor farmers. 1988 Project activities were to serve as a model for wider replication in the Riff region l Loan 1602-MOR Increase production of meat, milk and cereals; increase lMiddle Atlas-Central Area of the rural population income and employment; and FY82 Closed December Agricultural Development reverse environmental deterioration of forest and range 1990 Project lands Loan 2367-MOR Increase agricultural production by increasing Fifth Agricultural Credit agricultural lending of CNCA FY84 Closed 03/17/87 Project l Loan 2590-MOR Support the first phase of implementation of the Agricultural Sector Government's program of adjustments in the Adjustment Loan agricultural sector. The principal objectives of the FY85 Closed sector adjustment program were to improve the growth June 1987 rate in agriculture within the overall constraints in public resources Loan 2731-MOR Increase agricultural production by increasing Sixth Agricultural Credit agricultural lending of CNCA FY87 Closed Project February 1990 Loan 3088-MOR Supports CNCA's efforts to adapt its organization and National Agricultural Credit procedures so that it can respond to an accelerated Closed Project investment rate by the private sector in the rural areas FY90 December 1993 of Morocco Loan 2885-MOR Second Support the second phase of implemnentation of the Agricultural Sector Government's medium-term agricultural sector Adjustment Loan adjustment program within the framework of a general macro-economic restructuring program. The essential FY87 Closed objectives are to foster efficient agricultural growth April 1992 and to contribute to the reduction of budgetary and current account deficits to mranageable levels. Loan 3036-MOR Supports the reorganization and strengthening of the Research and Extension national research system, and the implementation of FY89 Ongoing Project T&V extension  - 21 - Table 2: Project Timetable Item Planned Date Revised Date Actual Date Appraisal March 1982 March 1982 Negotiations October 1982 October 1982 Board Approval December 14, 1982 December 14, 1982 Loan Signature May 23,1983 May 23, 1983 Loan Effectiveness August 22, 1983 November 22, 1983 March 5, 1984 February 22, 1984 March 5, 1984 Loan Closing December 31, 1989 June 30, 1991 December 31, 1992 June 30,1992 December 31, 1992  - 22 - Table 3: Loan Disbursement Fiscal Year 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 US$ Million |.................. ..... .................................................. ............... U$Mlin....... .................................................................. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. Appraisal Estimate 1.60 4.10 9.00 14.80 24.10 29.00 30.00 - - l Cumulative Actual Cumulative 0.44 1.06 1.21 3.07 5.81 5.92 6.98 8.87 10.85 12.69 Actual as % of Estimates 28 27 13 21 24 20 23 30 36 42  - 23 - Table 4: Project Implementation Component Estimated Total at Appraisal Actual Actual of Estimate Actual % of Estimate Buildings Office, storage, workshop 70 units 70 100 Houses 73 units 48 66 Others 40 units 29 26 90 Education 188 units 26 86 46 Health 2 units 2 100 Veiclell Cars, trucks 86 unit - 50 58 Tractors, trailors 36 units 16 8 50 Motorcycles 34 units - 25 73 Equipmentl Office and small equipment 1,190 units - - 90 Agricultural equipment 34 units 29 - 87 Lnproved animals, sheep, 500 units 154 39 cattle 20 units - 2 10 Staff (Extension) 37 number 9 24 Sylvo-Pastoral Improvaneset Cork and holm oak 9,000 ha 1,400 7 Forests Pasture land 2,000 ha 300 45 Forage shrub plantation 1,000 ha 430 43 Forage nursery I unit - - Pasture land outside forests 490 900 (experimental) (extension) Forest Improvement Erosion contrololive plantAtion 2,000 ha 4,190 209 Plantations 12,000 ha 11,600 90 Nursery I unit 1 100 Agriculture Improvanent Pulse (increased area) 2/ 6,000 ha 180 3 Forage (increased area) 9,000 ha 2,600 28 Silage and straw treatment 1,800 ha 130 7 Destoning 2,000 ha 0 0 Bush clearing 2,000 ha - 0 0 Beneficiaries credit 3/ 6,000 units - <3,000 Pilot farms 4/ 180 units Participating farmers 5/ 6,130 number - 3,000 50 New irrigation schemes 400 ha cancelled Rehabilitation of schemes 160 ha 163 ha 100 Demonstration farms 20 units Technical Assistance 72 mm 12 12 16  - 24 - Component Estimated Total at Appraisal Actual Actual of Estimate Actual S of Estimate Studies Small irrigation I unit 1/2 50 Underground water Oulmes I unit I 100 Underground water Tanoubert I unit cancelled - - Roads New and rehabilitated 291 km 50 17 Maintenance 1,190 kmn 1,010 85 Cadastral survey Photography 3,200 km2 3,200 100 Analysis cancelled - - Markets Construction/improvement 14 units - 4 100 Sewage Construction 9 villages 3 3 100 Study 9 units - 5 56 Flood control Construction I village cancelled - - Study I unit Electricity network Construction 25 km Study I unit Pavement of side streets 10 km - - Wells 61 units 27 44 11 Reduction due to project restructuring 2/ See Annex I Fig 3 3/ See Annex I Fig. 1 4/ Extension approach has changed in 1987 (see Part I) 5/ Members of contact groups regularly visited.  - 25 - Table 5. Project Costs and Financing A. Project Costs Item Estimates Actual Actual as Local Foreign Total % Exchange Estimates ---------- US$ Million --------- Agricultural Development 5.0 1.7 6.7 5.3 79 Livestock Production and Range Management 4.7 2.7 7.4 1.9 26 Irrigation Infrastructure 1.5 0.6 2.1 0.2 10 On-farm Investments 5.1 2.0 7.1 N/A Incremental Inputs 6.2 4.1 10.3 N/A Forest Developments 8.9 6.1 15.0 9.2 61 Research 1.9 0.8 2.7 0.3 11 Cadastral Survey 2.0 1.2 3.2 0.2 6 Rural Roads 3.0 2.7 5.7 1.3 23 Social Infrastructure 4.4 2.6 7.0 0.7 10 School and Health Building 2.6 1.8 4.4 N/A Studies, Training, Technical Assistance 0.9 1.1 2.0 0.7 35 Contingencies 20.8 10.6 31.4 N/A Total 67.0 38.0 105.0 19.8 19 Source: SAR and DAP  - 26 - B. Financing Source Planned Actual ------------------------------ US$ MNILLION --------------------------- IBRD 30 0 12.69 CNCA 13.5 N/A Beneficiaries 10.2 N/A Government 51.8 7.2 Total 105.5 19.8 Source: SAR and DAP Note: Loan disbursement (see Table 3) occurred mostly after 1986, at a period when the dollar was much weaker than at appraisal.  - 27 - Table 6. Project Results A. Economic Impact Item Appraisal Estimate PCR Estimate Economic Rate of Return Total Project 14 13.9 B. Studies Studies Purpose Status Impact 1. Irrigation Small Scale Irrigation Engineering Studies Completed Construction completed - over 163 ha only (about 600 ha) due to insufficient water resource Water resource insufficient for proposed development Groundwater Oulmes Resource Appraisal Completed Groundwater Tanoubet Resource Appraisal Cancelled 11. Social Infrastructure Water Supply Engineering Studies Completed Program reduced due to insufficient water resource; revised targets achieved. Works completed Water Sewage Engineering Studies Completed Flood Control Engineering Studies Cancelled Electricity Supply Engineering Studies Cancelled 111. Forestry Develop cost-efficient Not carried out Forestry Management methods for forestry management planning.  - 28 - Table 7. Status of Legal Covenants Agreement Section Original Date Revised Date Description of Covenants Status Loan 2217-MOR 3.01 (c) 04/84 07/86 CNCA shall provide as needed In full funds and services and open compliance. seasonal offices. 3.01 (c) - 10/85 CNCA shall determine ST In full credit requirements, on basis of compliance. product. costs, farm size and cult. practices. 3.03 11/85 07/86 National Committee shall Three year determine annually in consult. contract with Bank INRA's research signed with programme. INRA. 3.04 09/89 DPA shall forward to the Bank Regularly annual in-service training provided. programme each September. 3.05 (c) PMU shall furnish semi-annual In progress report. compliance. 4.02 Govt. shall prov. annual project Complied budget resources separately and with. furnish budget annually to Bank. 4.03 (c) Audit project accounts and send Complied to Bank. with. 4.05 Establishment of water users' Handled charges for irrigation schemes. under SMSI projects. 4.06 (a) Communes shall contribute to Works at O&M of sylvo-pastoral pilot stage. improvements. 4.06 (b) Establishment of adequate rates Work for grazing on forest rangeland. started in 1988/89 on a very small area.  - 29 - Table 8. Use of Bank Resources A. Staff Inputs Preparation Appraisal Negotiations Supervision PCR Total FY82 22.1 77.5 99.6 FY83 9.4 2.9 1.9 14.2 FY84 8.9 8.9 FY85 5.0 5.0 FY86 9.5 9.5 FY87 6.9 6.9 FY88 3.3 3.3 FY89 10.4 10.4 FY90 7.5 7.5 FY91 4.1 4.1 FY92 3.7 3.7 FY93 0.7 8.4 9.1 TOTAL 22.1 86.9 2.9 61.9 8.4 182.2  - 30 - B. Missions Stage of Project Month! Number of Days in Specialization Performance Ratings 2' Overal Year Persons Field represented " avail funds Project MNGMT Status Preparation Appraisal 03/82 5 28 A, E, 1, FO, L 2 Supervision 1 10/83 2 6 A, FO 2 Supervision 2 05/84 2 6 A, FO 2 Supervision 3 10/84 1 5 A N/A ' Supervision 4 10/85 2 8 A, FO 2 Supervision 5 07/86 1 6 A 2 Supervision 6 02/87 2 14 A, A 3 2 2 Supervision 7 11/87 1 3 A 3 1 2 Supervision 8 10/88 1 3 A 3 1 3 Supervision 9 04/89 1 4 A 3 2 3 Supervision 10 05/90 2 8 A, L 3 1 2 Supervision 11 12/90 1 2 A 3 1 2 Supervision 12 06/91 1 4 A 2 1 2 Supervision 13 05/92 1 5 A 2 1 2 1/ A: Agriculturist; E: Economist; F: Financial Analyst; FO: Forestry; I: Irrigation Engineer; L: Livestock Specialist. 2/ 1: Problem free; 2: Moderate problems; and 3: Major problems 3/ The Project was prepared between 1979-81 by the Government with the assistance of the CP and there are insufficient details on staff inputs. 4/ No Form 590 has been completed during this supervision.  - 31 - PART m: STATISTICAL INFORMATION Oulmes - Rommani PCR ANNEX I: KEY STATISTICS Annex 1 Page 1 F?g. 1 - Inp,. Suppiy and Credit in Project Area 9110 *m 19" 13 1L 19" IO L_ SO tn un Yea Sr LoaBn (number) +Femlhzw (c) Sieds(t) Fig. 2 - Fertlizer Use in Oulmes-Rommani and Whole Country sooo ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~10 o o 19O 0 Ig79 1Ung 1964 isa 19" 199 99 1990 199t 199Z Yeans Oulmes - Rommani -,, Wboie Counu-y Notes: 1. Input supply data refers to sales frm the public distribution system only. Actual consumption has increased more rapidly due to increased private trade. 2. 1991/195 was a drought year.  - 32 - Oulmes - Rommani PCR Annex 1 Page 2 Table 3 - Land Utilization in Project Area ('000 ha) ;::,; 0010;0 Table 4 - ead t Y inldseinSecteProvinc 3l 20 f'.'I ' ;U ' '' L : A 10 / 1990 1911 1982 199 1914 1915 1916 1987 1911 1969 1991 1991 199 Table 4-BRadWheat Yields in Selected Prov i 125 19Y 19111 1962 1913 199 1965 198S 191 198 19119 19S0 1991 1992 . Kboo.,ooot + Ralac Meina  - 33 - PART m: Annex 2: NOTE ON ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 1. Most of the increased agricultural production due to the project was to come from the introduction of relatively simple improved technical packages and from changes in cropping patterns (reduction in the area of fallow and increase in the area of fodder and legumes). Productivity of the herds was also expected to increase due to better nutrition, herd management and genetic improvement. In addition, a considerable increase in wood fiber production was envisaged under the project. 2. The SAR had identified 7 farm models in three ecological zones based on farn size and type of farming. Separate rates of return had been calculated for 4 components, i.e. agricultural development, forest, soil conservation and irrigation. The overall economic rate of return of the project was estimated at 14% over 35 years. 3. During implementation, a number of components were cancelled or reduced and only limited data was collected by the monitoring and evaluation unit which made it difficult to compare project achievements with appraisal expectations. The main project benefit achieved was an increase in the yields of cereals which more than doubled from about 1.6 t/ha to 2.5 t/ha. This was due to the use of improved seeds, better access to credit and improved agricultural services in the area. The project did not achieve its objectives in terms of increased livestock, fruit, vegetable, forage and legume production, and the proportion of fallow land was not reduced. 4. With regard to forestry, the project was expected to produce six types of forest products, including fuelwood and sawlogs. The assumptions made were that plantations would be established with clear production and management objectives, and that considerable benefits would also be generated within the protection forests that would be established. Unfortunately, management plans for the plantations have not yet been undertaken and in the absence of information on the future use of plantations, it was not possible to conduct a meaningful reestimation of the ERR of this component. 5. Given the lack of data to prepare elaborate farm models for the project area, an illustrative one ha bread wheat farm budget was prepared to assess the project impact (table 3). Benefits were assumed to be generated from wheat and barley, but expressed in bread wheat only. The incremental income with project, after costing all inputs including total labor costs, was adjusted to reflect the economic values of inputs and outputs. Subsequently, it was aggregated to determine total economic benefits according to the cropped area. The total cropped area assumed to be affected by the project at full development is about 100,000 ha, equivalent to the area of wheat and barley in an average  - 34 - year. The project benefits are expected to accrue in year 4 at the rate of 10%, 20%, 20% and 30% in succeeding years. 6. The analysis was carried out in 1992 constant prices. Costs prior to 1992 were expressed in 1992 prices using the consumer price index for local costs and the manufacturing unit value index for international costs. In line with the SAR, 37% of project costs were estimated to represent foreign exchange. Annex 2, Table 2 gives the indexes used in the analysis. 7. All costs incurred by the project were included in the analysis. Local and recurrent costs were converted into border prices using a standard conversion factor of 0.8. Financial values of the farm budget were converted into economic values using conversion factors of 0.75 for wheat and 0.9 for production costs. 8. On that basis, an economic rate of return of 13.9% was calculated for the project which is equivalent to the 14% ERR calculated at appraisal for the overall project. The net benefits from bread wheat production were sufficient to sustain all costs of the revised project.  Annex 2 Table 1 MOROCCO OLJLMES-ROMMANI AGRICLLTURA_ DEVELOPMENT PROJECT LOAN 2217-MOR) PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT Project Costs (Ctrrmnt Prices) Item 1984 It 1985 1988 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total (DH '000) Agriculklrl Developmernt 5330.75 3999.82 6658.71 2459.89 1804.38 6495.01 5141.81 8869.15 3711.68 49801.75 Livestock Production and Range Management 1612.91 432.80 712.09 832.20 1235.71 3760.57 3174.57 2609.17 1165.09 17148.02 lrrigaon Infrastructure 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.90 736.58 178.00 773.50 0.00 1694.98 FcrestDnevlopment 4722.99 1093.94 4846.24 10298.91 11302.22 11102.08 5874.76 20034.10 6657.99 80656.22 RessErch 299.07 147.83 771.10 334.97 177.95 0.00 0.00 55.21 459.09 2544.29 Cadastral Survey 427.93 14.48 639.56 403.24 89.01 127.04 37.04 0.00 0.00 2166.23 Rural Roads 0.52 226.83 7122.12 765.81 333.82 787.80 1024.22 224.10 230.00 10715.74 Socil Infrastructure 2.33 1313.21 1680.68 460.19 516.80 940.03 565.21 298.47 77.20 5856.45 Studes. Training and 0 Technical Assistance 2038.13 537.66 560.23 207.04 969.64 1300.00 0.00 43.14 43.14 7737.11 0 Total Costs 14434.63 7766.57 22990.73 15762.25 16436.43 25249.11 15995.41 32906.84 12344.19 163886.16 Item 1984 1/ 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total (UJS$ 'OO) 21 Agrculjreal Development 605.8095 415.78 764.49 315.37 219.78 799.88 639.50 1088.24 410.13 5258.98 Livesdock Production and 0.00 Range Management 189.2588 44.99 81.76 106.69 150.51 463.12 394.85 320.14 128.74 1880.06 Irrigalon Infrastructure 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 90.71 22.14 94.91 0.00 208.60 ForestDevelopmerTt 552.9027 113.72 556.40 1320.37 1376.64 1367.25 730.69 2458.17 735.69 9211.84 Reseerch 36.32087 15.37 88.53 42.94 21.67 0.00 0.00 6.77 50.73 262.34 Cadastrl Survey 44.97133 1.51 73.43 51.70 10.84 15.65 4.61 0.00 0.00 202.70 Rural Roads 0.05445 23.58 817.69 98.18 40.66 97.02 127.39 27.50 25.41 1257.49 SocilIntrastnrcture 0.243979 136.51 192.96 59.00 62.95 115.77 70.30 36.62 8.53 682.88 Stucies, Trainirng and 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Technicel AssIstance 270.4093 55.89 84.32 26.54 118.10 160.10 0.00 5.29 4.77 705.43 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Costa 1699.971 807.34 2639.58 2020.80 2002.00 3109.50 1989.48 4037.65 1364.00 19670.31 1/ includes costs related to 1 9S arnd 1983. 2/ Exchange rates used are: US$ 1- 6.27; 8.06; 9.55; 9.62; 8.71; 7.60; 8.21; 8.12; 8.04; 8.15; and 9.05 for th. years 1982 to 1992 respectvely.  Annex 2 OULMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Table 2 OULMES-ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGECT (LOAN 2217-MOR) PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT Economic Costs (DH'000) Year 1984 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 Total Local current costs (63% of Total) 9093.82 4892.94 14484.16 9930.22 10354.95 15906.94 10077.11 20731.31 7776.84 103248.28 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 310.50 334.60 363.70 373.80 382.40 394.40 420.90 455.30 477.80 Price increase (1992=100) 0.65 0.70 0.76 0.78 0.80 0.83 0.88 0.95 1.00 Localcost(constant) 13990.49 6989.91 19058.11 12731.05 12943.69 19164.99 11451.26 21822.43 7776.84 125928.76 Local cost adjusted by SCF 1/ 11192.39 5591.93 15246.48 10184.84 10354.95 15331.99 9161.01 17457.94 6221.47 100743.01 Foreign Exch. Costs (37% of tot.) 5340.81 2873,63 8506.57 5832.03 6081.48 9342.17 5918.30 12175.53 4567.35 60637.88 MUVIndex 68.05 68.60 80.89 88.84 95.31 94.65 100.00 102.11 106.53 Price Increases 1992= 100 0.64 0.64 0.76 0.83 0.89 0.89 0.94 0.96 1.00 Costs Adjusted by MUV 8345.02 4490.05 11192.86 7026.55 6833.12 10496.82 6296.07 12682.84 4567.35 71930.67 Total Adjusted costs 19537.41 10081.98 26439.34 17211.38 17188,07 25828.81 15457.07 30140.79 10788.82 172673.68 1/ Standard Corversion Factor: 0.8  Annex 2 Table 3 MOROCCO OULMES- ROMMANI AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2217 -MOR) PPOJECT COMPLETiON REPORT One Hetare Brrad Whet BudAet 1. Ountifs Wo With Proclt Project iUnt Yt Y2 Y3 ProdricUan Yeld grain t 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.5 straw t 1 3 1.4 1.8 1.7 Seeds ordi-ury kg 120 120 80 80 seiected 11 kg e0 80 Frtlizer 14-28-14 kg 50 e0 80 100 ursa kg 10 30 50 AIN kg 10 30 50 Herbicide 2-4 0 1 0.5 1 Machines plow 2/ Is 30 30 30 30 chisb Is 150 150 cover-aop Is 220 220 110 110 seed drill Is 110 combine Is 210 240 tnbl la 250 28 500 640 Labour sowing d 2 2 2 weedng d 5 5 3 1 harvat d 8 9 1 1 other d 1 1 2 2 totl d 18 17 a 4 11. Vtue di Productlain id Cos W/O With - Project Proect Unkt Yt Y2 Y3 Vsise of Prockjctlan grin 2700 4320 4880 5940 8750 sifeW 800 1040 1120 1280 1380 Prodctlon Co Seds ordinary 2.7 324 324 182 1t2 sedected 3.78 22t 220 FertilIzer 14-28-14 2.2 110 132 178 220 urea 2.2 22 88 110 AIN 1.82 18.2 48.8 81 Herbiclde 2-40 50 25 50 Machirss plow 11 Is 30 30 30 30 chbel Is 150 150 cowr-aop Is 220 220 110 110 seed drill Is 110 combine Is 200 225 tote Is 250 250 490 am0 Labour sowing 30 80 8o 80 weddrg 30 150 150 90 30 harveet 30 240 270 30 30 caer 30 30 30 o0 80 total 30 4iX 510 240 120 Tota crb 1414 1154 13 2219 Grnoa hcotte 3348 4476 5Nl7 iSX Inreretal hIinccmie SWG 1351 1t45 1/onrl every 2years 2 once every br years  Annex2 Tabte 4 MOROCCO - WIMKES ROMKANI AGRICULTURAL DTEVELOPMENT PROJECT PROJECT COM4PLETION REPORT - ECoNamI ANALYSIS ORH 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 10 11 12 13 14. 15 16 17-25 Investme*nt costs investment costs 19537.4 10082.0 26439.3 17211.'4 17188.1 25828)3 15457.1 30140.8 101388.5 - - - -- Recurrent Costs - - - - - - -- - 5440.0 5440.0 5440.0 5440.0 5440.0 5440.0 5440.0 5440.0 On-Farm Costs - - - - - -- - - - 800.0 6200.0 10100.0 32700.0 48100.0 64900.0 73000.0 Total Economic Costs 19537.4 10082.0 26439.3 11211.4 17188.1 25028.8 15457.1 30140.8 108L318. 8 5440.0 6240.0 11640.0 23540.0 31814,0.0 53540.0 70340.0 75440.0 Benefits Increm. prod. in Ton-s - . - - - - 2000.0 7000.0 14500.0 23500.0 34500.0 40500.0 45000.0 45000.0 45000.0 45000.0 45000.0 economic price of whe,at . . - - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 incremental benefits . - - - - 4050.0 14175.0 29362.5 47587.5 691562.5 82012.5 91125.0 91125.0 91125.0 91125.0 91125.0 net incremental benefits -19537.4 -10082.0 -26439.3 -17211.4 -17188.1 -25028.8 -114,07.1 -15965.8 184T3.7 42147.5 63622.5 70372.5 67505.0 52985.0 3 7585.0 20785.0 12685.0 6/14/1993 17:18 Switching Valujes at 10.0% Appraisal Switching Percentage Streain value Value Change BlOT 296356.3 260868.1 -12.0% CtOT 2601368.1 296356.3 13.6% Net Present Value at OCC 10.0% r 35488.2 Interre.-e Rate of Return =13.9% Coupon Equivalent Rate of Return 12I.1%