Education in a declining economy : the case of Zambia, 1975-1985

9532 *6mmt Economic Development Institute I4;7 of The World Bank E ducation in a Declining Economy The Case of Zambia, 1975-1985 Michael J. Kelly FILE COPY EDI DEVELOPMENT POLICY CASE SERIES Analytical Case Studies * Number 8  I  EDI DEVELOPMENT POLICY CASE SERIES ANALYTICAL CASE STUDIES * No. 8 Education in a Decllning Economy The Case of Zambia 1975-1985 Michael J. Kelly The World Bank Washington, D.C.  Copyright i 1991 The Intemational Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing March 1991 The Economic Development Institute (EDI) was established by the World Bank in 1955 to train officials concerned with development planning, policymaking, investment analysis, and projectimplementation in member developing countries. At present the substance of the EDrs work emphasizes macroeconomic and sectoral economic policy analysis. 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The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to photocopy portions for classroom use is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The backlist of publications by the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which is available from Publications Sales Unit, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, tJ.SA, or from Publications, Banque mondiale, 66, avenue d'I6na, 75116 Paris, France. Michael J. Kelly is a professor at the School of Education, University of Zambia. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kelly, Michael J. Education in a declining economy: the case of Zambia, 1975-1985 / Michael J. Kelly. p. cm. -- (EDI development policy case series. Analytical case studies ; no. 8) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-1776-8 1. Education--Economic aspects--Zambia. 2. Education--Zambia-- History--20th century. 3. Education--Zambia--Finance. 4. Zambia-- Economic conditions--1964- I. Title. II. Series LC67.Z33K45 1991 370'.96894--dc2O 91-2217 CIP EDI Catalog No. 120/022 ISSN 1013-333X  Contents Abbreviations vii Acknowledgments ix Preface xi Summary xiii 1. The Impact of Economic Decline on Education 1 2. The Development of Education in Zambia before 1975 6 The Precolonial Era 6 The Period of British South Africa Company Administration 7 The Colonial Era, 1924 to 1952 8 The Federal Era, 1953 to 1963 11 Education at Independence 13 The Decade of Comparative Prosperity, 1964 to 1974 14 3. The Decline of Zambia's Economy 16 The Dependence on Minerals 16 Oil Prices 19 Trade Routes 19 Terms of Trade 19 External Debt 20 Underutilization of Capacity 21 Decline in Investment and Growth in Consumption 21 Employment 21 Agriculture 22 Rural-Urban and Income Disparities 23 Inflation 24 ..  iv Contents Gross Domestic Product 24 Deficit Financing 24 Conclusion 25 4. Demography 26 Characteristics of the Population 26 Population and Education 28 The Data Base 29 5. The Financing of Education, 1975 to 1985 30 The Financing of the Social Services Sector 30 The Financing of Education 33 Expenditure by Level of Education 36 Unit Costs 36 Expenditure by Function 40 Capital Expenditure 43 Education's Investment Needs 45 6. Financing Education: Some Critical Issues 47 Teachers' Salaries 47 Transfer Payments 52 The Availability of Textbooks and Teaching Materials 54 School Maintenance 60 Imbalances in the Financing of Education 61 7. Official Development Assistance for Education 64 Aid to Education 64 Aid and the Establishment of Priorities 66 The Management of Aid to Education 68 The Impact of Aid to Education 69 Criticisms of Aid to Education 70 Future Priorities for Aid to Education 73 8. Nongovernment Resources for Financing Education 78 Parental Payments 78 Self-Help Activities 79 Production Activities 80 Private Schools 80 Grant-Aided Schools 83 Increased Privatization and Policy Adjustments 84 9. Educational Provision at the Primary and Secondary Levels 86 The Expansion of Primary School Enrollments 86 The Growth Rate of Primary School Enrollments 88 The Expansion of Secondary Schools 89  Contents v Secondary School Boarders 91 Basic Education Schools 92 Progression within the School System 93 The Education of Girls 98 Geographic Disparities 99 Repetition and Efficiency 101 10. The Quality of Education 103 The Education Provided 103 School Quality in Zambia 105 11. Curriculum Issues 110 Curriculum Development 110 The Language of Instruction 111 Political Education 113 Population Education 114 Mathematics and Science Education 114 12. Evaluating Educational Performance 116 Examination Reforms, 1975 to 1985 116 The Administration and Management of Examinations, 1975 to 1985 118 Performance in Examinations, 1975 to 1985 119 The Examination Pyramid 129 Overview of Examination Performance 129 13. The Teacher During the Years of Economic Difficulty 130 Primary School Teachers 130 Secondary School Teachers 135 Issues Affecting Both Primary and Secondary School Teachers 140 14. The Pupil in School and Afterwards 146 Children's Nutritional Status 146 The Family's Educational Background 147 Children Not in School 149 School-Leavers 149 Unemployment 151 The Informal Sector 153 The Informal Sector and the School Curriculum 153 15. Educational Supervision, Planning, and Decisionmaking 155 The Inspectorate 155 Educational Planning 157 The Educational Reform Movement 159 The Educational Reform Movement and the Decline of the Economy 161 Content of the Educational Reforms 162  vi Contents Status of the Educational Reforms, 1978-84 163 The Education Reform Implementation Project 164 Forms of Educational Decisionmaking 165 The Personnel Needed for Decisionmaking 165 16. Continuing Education Programs 167 The Department of Continuing Education 167 The National Correspondence College 168 Supervised Study Groups 168 Evening Classes 169 Schools for Continuing Education 169 Conclusion 169 17. The University of Zambia During the Years of Economic Difficulty 171 Admissions and Enrollments 172 The University and Development Needs 172 Staffing 179 The Staff Development Program 179 Staff Attrition 181 Financing the University 182 The Use of Funds 184 The Cost of a University Graduate 185 The Cost of University Closures 186 The Salaries of Teaching Staff 187 Postgraduate Studies and Research 189 Conclusion 190 18. The General Level of Education 192 The Educational Level of the Population 192 Literacy 194 Literacy Programs 195 19. The Robustness of the Education System 196 References 199  Abbreviations A-level advanced level BSAC British South Africa Company CDC Curriculum Development Centre CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CSO Central Statistical Office ECA Economic Commission for Africa EEC European Economic Community EIU Economist Intelligence Unit FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FINNIDA Finnish International Development Agency GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia ILO International Labour Organisation JSSLE Junior Secondary School Leaving Examination NGO nongovernmental organization NORAD Royal Norwegian Development Agency NRG Northern Rhodesia Government OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 0-level ordinary level SHAPE Self-Help Action Plan for Education SIDA Swedish International Development Authority UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNFSSTD United Nations Financing System for Science and Technology for Development UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund UNIP United National Independence Party vii   Acknowledgments I carried out this study, which was jointly sponsored by the Government of the Republic of Ireland, through the Higher Education for Development Cooperation Office (HEDCO), and the Economic Development Institute (EDI) of the World Bank, while on sabbatical leave in 1987 from the University of Zambia. I wish to thank the sponsors for asking me to undertake this work and the university for extending my sabbatical leave to enable me to complete it. I wish to express my gratitude to the many people who responded to my requests for information. Special thanks are due to Mr. C. Siamotowe of the Examinations Council; Fr. T. McGivern S.J. of the Inspectorate; Mr. E. Ngoma of the Planning Unit; Ms. J. Calder, Professor G. Lurogu, Mr. G. Mufuzi, and Dr. D. M. Sibalwa, all of the University of Zambia; Mr. C. Chirwa of the Kenneth Kaunda Foundation; and to the teachers, college lecturers, and school inspectors who answered my questionnaires. Note, however, that the organization of the material and the views expressed in the report are my own and should not be attributed to any of the persons who provided me with information. I wish also to extend special thanks to my research assistants, Stella Nkwanga, Crispin Chikwasha, Michael Botha, and Fred Chanda for the painstaking way in which they compiled information from various documents. I must also thank my companions in Luwisha House, Lusaka, and my sister, Maureen, in Newbridge, Ireland, for their patient understanding and generous support during the period when I was so preoccupied with this report. Finally, I acknowledge my indebtedness to Ms. Alice Dowsett of the Economic Development Institute who transformed my study into a book and shepherded it through publication. I trust that this study will contribute to an understanding of the way an education system can survive when the financial climate is hostile, and how it can even be strengthened once the system has come to grips with the adverse circumstances. Such knowledge might help policymakers provide better for the needs of children, even when resources are scarce. M. J. Kelly School of Education University of Zambia Lusaka ix   Preface During the past 12 years, Zambia has experienced increasingly grave financial problems. The decline in the economy has affected all sectors, including education. The deterioration occurred at a time when the population was growing at a rapid rate. Hence the education sector has been subject to two opposing pressures: a fiscal pressure to curtail financial commitments and a demographic pressure to increase the provision of education. The outcome has been a virtual stagnation in resource allocation, a substantial increase in enrollments, and, in consequence, a reduction in unit expenditure. The government has financed the growing education sector by reducing the real incomes of teachers, allowing a withering away of public funds for all but the most essential salary payments, relying more heavily on contributions from the community and participation by the private sector, and turning to foreign aid for general budgetary support. The subsectors of education have not been equally affected, however. Those considered more prestigious have been maintained and have even increased their share of resources, while those less powerful have experienced the greatest losses. Thus, the overall allocation of resources shifted from the primary and secondary levels to the university; more resources were provided for instructional materials at the secondary than at the primary level; community efforts were directed toward the expansion of secondary facilities; the bulk of foreign aid was used for secondary schools and the university; continuing and nonformal education were supported only erratically; and the proportion of female students declined at the university level and improved little at the secondary level, although it did increase at the primary level. The education sector responded predictably. Despite the best efforts of teachers, supervisors, and administrators, the quality of the education provided declined. Teaching and learning materials and school furniture were in short supply and were distributed unevenly. In consequence, students' performance remained at a mediocre level; indeed, that it did not deteriorate even more is remarkable. Nevertheless, public confidence in education as an instrument of development remained high. Even the most indigent people did not question the need to make substantial sacrifices so that their children could have a school education. They willingly paid for school supplies, additional school facilities, and heavy school- related expenses (such as uniforms). As the economic situation worsened, people's faith in the ability of education to deliver them and their children from the id  xii Preface oppression of poverty increased. As wage employment became scarcer, people attached greater store to educational credentials as the necessary, if not always sufficient, passport to such employment. This public confidence in the power of education probably helped prevent the allocation of resources from slipping back too far. It may also have contributed to the renewal of education after the first few years of hardship. What emerges clearly from an examination of events since 1975 is the variety of ways in which after some years of faltering, the education system set itself once again on course. Although not every problem was solved, the years 1980 to 1985 showed more determination, confidence, and maturity than the previous five years on the part of teachers, administrators, and the general public, who cooperated in what was in effect a massive rescue operation to expand and improve the provision of education. The economic decline created many difficulties for the education system and brought many material hardships to all engaged in the enterprise of educating young people. But it appears also to have brought the benefits of greater self- reliance, clearer self-definition, and improved self-confidence. These gains may well prove to be more enduring and more significant than the setbacks experienced during the years of difficulty.  Summary In 1975 falling copper prices plunged Zambia into deep and serious economic difficulties. These difficulties continued during the ensuing years and quickly assumed crisis proportions. Notwithstanding the various measures taken during the past 12 years to arrest the deterioration, Zambia's economy has experienced a sustained, rapid, and substantial decline that has adversely affected all areas and sectors of life. This study examines the impact of this economic decline on the provision of formal education during the decade 1975 to 1985. To set educational provision in its historical context, the study provides an overview of the development of education before 1975 and highlights the fact that, although the economic crisis may have imposed new constraints on providing adequate and relevant education, several of the problems currently being experienced have accompanied the development of the education system since its inception in the mid-1920s. Several issues that have a modern ring actually have a relatively long history, such as concern about the system's coverage, about the quality of the education being provided, and its suitability in preparing young people to face a world where the number of formal sector job opportunities is severely limited; about the ability to continue financing the system; and about generating the managerial capacity needed by a rapidly expanding educational network. Both the economic decline that gathered momentum after 1975 and the accelerating rate of population growth aggravated these and other problems. Drawing on the findings of the 1980 population census, the study brings together some findings on the interaction between level of education and such population variables as fertility, age at first marriage, and child mortality. The general picture of resource allocation to education during the period 1975 to 1985 shows efforts to maintain and increase the level of educational spending. Relative to other sectors in the economy, the share allocated to education showed some tendency to increase, but the gain was slight, and its impact was nullified by the rapid population growth. Consequently, there was a substantial reduction in expenditure per student, resulting in steadily diminishing funds for educational materials and supplies; a depreciation of the real incomes of teachers to about 40 percent of their 1975 value; a greater reliance on the community for building and equipping schools; and increased calls on the private sector to participate in the provision of education. The decade also saw growing dependence on foreign aid for support to the education sector. uIj  xdu Summary Within the education sector, resources tended to be diverted away from the primary, secondary, teacher training, and technical education levels and toward the university. Unit costs at the primary level fell by over 25 percent and by over 50 percent at the secondary level, but at the university they rose by more than 40 percent. Such a large proportion of available resources was spent on teachers' salaries, especially at the primary level, that little remained to purchase essential educational materials. The study investigated the current supply situation in a sample of primary and secondary schools throughout the country and found a critical shortage of textbooks and teaching materials. At both the primary and secondary levels, a significant number of pupils appeared to lack essential writing materials. An examination of the actual production figures showed that the output always fell short of requirements. Technical production problems, marketing and distribution difficulties, and the chronic shortage of finance appeared to underlie these shortfalls. At the same time, however, large sums were being devoted each year to transfer payments, with the amount increasing at an average annual rate of more than 10 percent in real terms. In general, therefore, the study found evidence of serious structural imbalances in the financing of education in Zambia that became more marked during the years of economic difficulty. These imbalances occur at two principal levels: in the allocation of resources between educational levels, and within each level, between functions: too much was devoted to the refined needs of too few at the higher level, and too little to the general needs of too many at the lower level. Moreover, too much was being devoted to personnel and to student subsidies and too little to more directly educational purposes. Policymakers' awareness of these problems appeared to be growing, hence the economic crisis is seen as having the positive outcome of promoting the establishment of a clear order of priorities and of fostering their translation into practice. Notwithstanding the severe financial problems, the decade saw a sustained and rapid expansion of the school system at both the primary and secondary levels. During the first few years of economic difficulties there was some faltering, but since 1980 growth rates have picked up and have accelerated, in many instances to levels higher than the comparable rates for the population as a whole. Accompanying this increased numerical coverage by the system, the proportion of girls who completed the full primary cycle increased. Little improvement was observed, however, in the proportion of girls participating in secondary education, while at the university level the proportion actually declined. The growth in numbers was not matched, however, by any corresponding improvement in the relevance or quality of the education provided. Although a decade of efforts was put into the process of educational reform, current educational provision is no more successful in responding to students' real needs than during colonial times. A mainly academic program, deriving almost exclusively from a knowledge-based curriculum, aims primarily at allowing students to progress further within the education system, and ultimately to gain wage employment. The system gives no consideration to the special learning needs of the large majority who must seek employment in the informal sector. Although the evaluation of educational quality is problematic, Zambia's showing is negative on a number of indicators that are found to relate consistently to improved academic achievement. These indicators include per capita expenditures, the availability of instructional materials, the availability of library facilities, the number of hours actually spent in classroom teaching, the  Summary xv availability of school furnishings, and the nutritional status of students. Concern has also been expressed about the quality of many university graduates and about their ability to respond competently and flexibly to the responsibilities that are placed on their shoulders. This latter problem may reflect the imbalance in the allocation of resources by the university toward administrative needs and away from those more directly concerned with teaching and research. To the extent that performance in public examinations is indicative of educational achievement, the picture is mixed. That the examination system remained in place was perhaps a significant achievement in its own right. As to student performance, an analysis of raw scores suggests that performance deteriorated somewhat in the terminal primary school examination. Some deterioration was also apparent at higher levels, particularly in mathematics and science. A notable feature in all examinations was the consistency with which boys' performance surpassed that of girls. Teachers were the most affected by the economic problems. To a large extent they were denied the resources needed for the professional discharge of their responsibilities. Moreover, although their educational background improved steadily, their salaries declined sharply in real terms. Yet despite dissatisfaction with their salaries, the numbers entering and remaining in teaching increased. This was almost certainly due to the absence of employment opportunities in other sectors of the faltering economy. But although there was a substantial improvement in the retention of graduate secondary teachers, teachers in key areas such as English, mathematics, and science were still in short supply. The study attempted to assess whether teachers endeavored to supplement their incomes by undertaking commercial activities concurrently with their educational commitments. Although the evidence is not conclusive, many teachers do apparently undertake such activities, devoting some of their official school time to such undertakings. This practice is on the increase, and some teachers use the labors of school pupils for these activities during school hours. However, a number of indications showed that the teaching force, at both primary and secondary levels, was becoming more professional, more highly motivated, and more confident of its ability to master the adverse circumstances that beset it. In an almost perverse manner, the financial crisis appears to have boosted teachers' morale and provided a climate in which teachers as a group have advanced to a new stage of professional maturity. The study also examined a number of other areas. These include the educational reform movement that occupied so central a place in educational thinking during the decade; continuing education, which was seen as the cinderella of education, with its programs being perceived principally as providing a parallel, second best route to educational qualifications; the University of Zambia, where it appeared that available resources could be used more effectively for the institution's teaching and research responsibilities and for the development of good quality postgraduate and research work; and the population's low general educational and literacy level. In conclusion, the study reflected on how the more vulnerable areas-primary schools, teacher education, out-of-school youth, literacy-experienced the economic constraints more severely, whereas such improvements as occurred were enjoyed by the more prestigious and powerful areas: the university and some aspects of secondary provision. It also noted the tendency to show more concern with getting children into educational institutions than with providing the resources needed for them to make solid progress after their admission. Nevertheless, despite the  xvi Summary difficulties experienced the education system displayed considerable robustness. Not only did it continue to operate and even to expand, but it became more aware of the need to provide children with a better and more relevant form of education. In particular, the strength of the social demand for education was noted. The study suggests that to capitalize on these positive aspects * there should be closer integration between the school and community, so that where financing is shared, responsibility could likewise be shared; * the importance of every child receiving seven years of good quality primary education should be recognized and given top priority; * the education system should generate more information about itself and process this information for the guidance of policymakers; * education should be financed in ways not practiced to date and be offered in ways not hitherto conventional.  1 The Impact of Economic Decline on Education During the 1960s and the early 1970s, almost every country in the world devoted an everincreasing share of its resources and annual budgets to education. However, the recession triggered by the rise in oil prices in 1973 caused a leveling off and then a decline in the share of national resources going to education. Both developed and developing countries experienced this kind of downturn, but the latter were more severely affected. This reduction in overall resources came at a time in their educational history when they were not yet providing basic educational services for all their people, and when such services as they were providing were not of the quality that either suppliers or consumers wished them to be. The problems were compounded by the rampant inflation that accompanied the recession, which manifested itself in the rising cost of educational provision per student. This cost is largely due to the nature of educational delivery, which depends heavily on a face-to-face encounter in which one individual teaches a restricted number of students. This labor-intensive feature of educational delivery means that a very large proportion of educational costs are attributable to teachers' salaries-more than 90 percent in some cases. The costs per student rose because teachers' salaries had to be raised in line with those in other sectors of the economy, and frequently at a rate that far outstripped inflationary growth. Yet despite the tendency for resource levels to decline and for costs to rise, education systems were under pressure to maintain, expand, and improve upon the services they provided. This pressure was applied very strongly in countries that shared two educational/economic features: first, where a long history of educational neglect meant that a considerable proportion of the populace did not have access to even the most elementary form of education, while access to levels beyond the elementary was severely limited; and second, where the possession of some education beyond the most elementary was considered a passport out of poverty and the uncertainties of a traditional subsistence economy into relative affluence and moderni'ty. Zambia is one such country. This report focuses on Zambia to document the extent of the financial squeeze on the formal education system, and to track the adjustments made in response to it. The Zambian case is of particular interest because the recession threw the entire economy into a state of almost total disarray and collapse. (See figure 1.1 for a map of Zambia.) Before considering Zambia's I  Figure 1.1 ZAMBIA ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS TE SOLW&EZI / 4>#/ KAPUTA - District Boundaries MBAIA LUAPULA Region Boundaries MPOROKO International Boundary LUAPULA WBISOKA ONSER CTWLSTI l COPPERBELT| MANA STERN MWINILUNGA r, f I t \~~~~~~~CHILILABOMBW .-MPK / . NORTH-WESTERN SOWZ _< \J l ZAMBEZI KABOMPO \ fJ ' C NRUf0~IAL LUNHASERENJE XCIAAyATR W\ } / C~~~~~HIZERA l AEMPA /< | LUKULJ > )S J URIBAN v JPETAUKE \ I \\- af ~~~~~~~~~RURAL CNRL |KALABO KAOMA J MUMBWA j_/ ~ ;; MONGU a A AUB/\ | S \ X T t ~~~~~~NAMWALA LULSK WE > ESHEKE l v O \ S~~~~~~OUTHERN  The Impact of Economic Decline on Education 3 situation in detail, however, a discussion, in general terms, of the adjustments likely to characterize education's response to the economic recession in countries similarly affected is helpful. During a period of economic hardship, an education system may be exposed to two opposing pressures: fiscal and popular. The fiscal pressure is constrictive, seeking to constrain and sometimes to reduce the system so that its needs can be met by a smaller proportion of national resources. The popular pressure is expansionist, seeking at the very least to maintain the system, but almost always striving to expand the number of students in the system or to improve the quality of services provided. This expansionist pressure is greatly intensified when the population is increasing rapidly. Popular pressure is always present, but during times of hardship, it exacerbates fiscal pressure. The interaction of these pressures results in a compromise: fiscal provision from public resources responds to the dominant elements of popular demand, but is less responsive to weaker components. The price of this response is an increasing reliance on private and other nongovernmental resources-aid from abroad, for example-to finance and provide education. In most countries, education and health are the largest spenders of public funds, with education usually being the bigger of the two, as is the case in Zambia. When resources become tight, governments tend to look to these two areas for savings. One reason is that they are so large that the savings they can generate can be sizeable, whereas corresponding savings in other areas might cripple activities entirely. A second reason is that governments see these areas as consuming resources that they might otherwise use to revitalize a sagging economy. At the same time, however, these two sectors touch the public so intimately that interference with them is fraught with danger. In virtually every country, the "ability to satisfy popular demand for education (is) a necessary (though not always sufficient) condition for political survival" (Weiler 1983, p. 40). Thus political prudence requires that education and health budgets should be allowed to maintain at least the principal services and those that the more articulate section of the public regards most highly. The obvious requirements for education are to have in classrooms as large a proportion as possible of children of the relevant school-going age; to enable as many as possible to move to higher levels of education; and to give special consideration to these higher levels since they are the ones that lead to the best employment opportunities. Hence governments will use their limited resources to keep classrooms full at the lowest levels, to get maximum returns from teachers and classrooms by allowing class sizes to grow almost unchecked, and when possible to provide more classrooms and extra teachers to cater to those as yet unable to gain admission; to increase opportunities for secondary education because of the high social value placed on it; and to provide unquestioning support to the university, partly because they believe it has a critical role to play in economic development, and partly because its considerable prestige, powerful lobby, and virtual autonomy in managing its own affairs make it something of a sacred cow. These are the dominanKt components of the education system that the government will maintain and expand. The government will provide proportionately fewer resources for components that are less visible. These include the actual content of courses taught and their relevance or usefulness to life outside; the organization of the entire school system with its heavy emphasis on examinations and selection; the nature of the curriculum and the teaching methods used; and the effectiveness with which  4 Education in a Declining Economy: The Case of Zambia, 1975-85 schools can conduct their business. In other words, fewer resources will be available for the qualitative needs of the education system. The public would like to see improvements here, of course, but is more concerned with receiving more education rather than better education. Other aspects of educational provision also suffer from a weak lobby and may therefore prove vulnerable in a time of economic difficulty. These encompass any group that is less-advantaged with respect to another. Thus, within education as a whole, formal provision is likely to be less vulnerable than nonformal (Lewin 1986; Lourie 1986); provision at the primary level is likely to suffer relative to the secondary level, which in turn will suffer in relation to tertiary provision; provision for girls may suffer more than that for boys; provision for those requiring special education because of mental or physical handicaps will not be as readily forthcoming as for those who are not disabled; and urban areas will have more facilities and better quality provision than rural areas. Reorientations of this nature in the use of educational resources are unlikely to take place because of calculated decisions and explicitly formulated policy choices. Instead they will occur by way of ad hoc reaction to circumstances where the daily pressures will be such that the government's principal concern will be with survival and not with dynamic developments. Neither will the government make such adjustments in a radical fashion. Instead, a slow process of transformation will arise from two complementary developments. Inescapable commitments, above all for salaries and wages, will absorb most of the available resources, leaving very little for other equally important operating expenses. The commitment to wages and salaries will also leave little room for maneuverability in the disposition of resources, thus reducing the possibility of introducing meaningful reforms. Simultaneously, resources will be shifted away from the lower levels and toward the higher. This will be partly due to the greater impact on resources of high salaries and salary increases at the tertiary level, and partly to the determination to maintain university level provision. Accompanying these adjustments in the distribution of resources will be an increased tendency to fall back on sources outside the government for the inputs needed to maintain and develop the education system. Domestically, there will be greater ,eliance on the private sector. At the institutional level, this will manifest itself in the growth of private schools and in greater involvement of nongovernmental bodies in the provision and management of education. At the level of the individual, it will manifest itself in various moves toward cost sharing. The responsibility for costs not directly related to professional educational purposes are likely to be transferred to the parents or the communities. Development assistance for education will tend to become more important. The government will seek aid for education from more diverse sources than in the past and will use it for a wider variety of purposes. No longer will it be confined to strictly capital developments, or to the dominant technical assistance components of personnel and training, but will encompass virtually every form of operating cost (with the possible exception of salaries for local personnel). Although the total volume of foreign aid may not be large in relation to the entire education budget, it will have a disproportionately large effect. This is because in practice (though not in principle), it will be a form of general budgetary support. Hence, it will provide the flexibility for innovation and for addressing critical points that the education budget lost through its commitment to inescapable expenditures. As aid is becoming available from a wide variety of donors, is being directed to a multiplicity of projects and activities, and is virtually the only source of funds for  The Impact of Economic Decline on Education 5 meeting the less tangible needs of quality improvement, dealing with aid matters will consume much time in the education ministries. Moreover, the ministries will take care to make educational plans as all-embracing as possible, without too sharp a delineation of priorities, so as not to jeopardize potential aid. The difficulty the recipient country experiences in meeting all its educational needs, and often even in formulating its wants, may lead to the donor having a powerful voice in the formulation of educational priorities; an influence that may find expression in conditionalities attached to the aid. The donor may wish to confine the resources provided to consolidating, maintaining, or rehabilitating the existing system and its infrastructure rather than to developing new capacity. Developments may also occur in response to the external stimuli of donors rather than as locally conceived initiatives. Finally, a word on possible attitudinal adjustments to the problems that have beset education in many developing countries since the mid-1970s. At first, the crisis might be expected to engender considerable demoralization. Attention would be riveted on the negative aspects: the shortages, the problems, the failures. At the same time, government would retain a shred of hope that the general economic situation might improve, both internationally and nationally, and that education might again experience more plentiful days. When governments recognized that no such improvements would come quickly or effortlessly, they would see that if there were to be changes for the better, they would have to be self-initiated and on the basis of a low level of material inputs. Experience and confidence gained from coping with problems in the almost total absence of the necessary resources, together with the self-assured recognition of what an achievement it was not to have succumbed entirely to economic hardships, would combine to make them more resolute and purposeful in pursuing objectives. They would have a more realistic appreciation of the resources needed to achieve these objectives and of the problems in generating or improvising such resources. But they would also be more committed to do what they could to maintain and support the system, and to translate that commitment into practice. The pages that follow will examine the working out of these predictions in the case of Zambia, and will note in several different spheres the phenomenon of the fall and rise of education in an economy under decline.  2 The Development of Education in Zambia before 1975 "An education system is a result of decisions made and designs laid down by past and present Governments" (UNESCO 1964, p. 1). This statement remains as true today as when Radford and his colleagues first wrote it in their report on the future development of the education system of what was then known as Northern Rhodesia. Several of the concerns that beset the educational planner today have their origin in events that occurred years and even decades before; thus, an overview of the education sector prior to 1975 follows as a backdrop to the developments during the subsequent years of financial crisis. As this section will show, several of the problems that are central to the education system today have accompanied its growth and development. Indeed, a sense of deja vu accompanies a study of the problems that beset educational provision in the 1930s: - the economic constraints that limited the extension of education to every child; * the inability to formulate clear policies because of the government's crippling 'sense of poverty" (Coombe 1968, p. 372); 3 the developments that occurred more in response to external stimuli than to local initiatives; * the pervasive concern about the production of an educated cadre that could not be absorbed into productive employment; * the relevance of the education provided to the lives of most recipients; * the danger of relapse into illiteracy by the large numbers of students obliged to leave school after too short a period of participation; * the difficulty of ensuring that girls would be educated in the same numbers and to the same standards as boys; * the apparent conflict between the provision of primary and secondary education; * the unsatisfactory quality of educational provision in the primary schools. The Precolonial Era The precolonial era in Zambia lasted until 1890 when the Lozi in the west of the country and the British South Africa Company (BSAC) signed a treaty of protection 6  The Development of Education in Zambia Before 1975 7 and subsidy that gave the company administrative control and mineral rights over a large area. During this era, education in the sense of "the transmission of wisdom, knowledge, experience and skills" (Lane 1976, p. 1) flourished, since it was a prerequisite for survival. This traditional education had five main components: * instruction in the history and traditions of the people; * training in practical skills through a loose form of apprenticeship; * teaching about social obligations and the inculcation of good manners; * development of awareness of and respect for the religious dimension of daily life; * concentrated preparation for the transition from childhood to adulthood in secluded initiations schools (Snelson 1974). The initiation schools' activities tended to be systematic and rather formalized, but the other components of traditional education fell under what today would be termed "nonformal" education. Two essential and related features of traditional education deserve mention in the context of concerns about the education provided today and the resources required: first, traditional education was the responsibility of the community, drawing on its own resources, and second, it was ideally suited to the society in which it was given. Whatever other limitations traditional education may have suffered from, it did not "alienate" the recipients from life in the local community. Indeed, "its most obvious characteristic was its capacity to prepare children for living in the community" (Castle 1966, p. 44). The success that traditional education so effortlessly achieved in this respect has eluded modern educational endeavors, notwithstanding the investment of much thought and many resources. Toward the end of the precolonial era, Zambia was penetrated first by missionary explorers, of whom David Livingstone was the most notable, subsequently by missionary evangelists (Arnot, Coillard, and Depelchin, for example), and later by prospectors and treaty seekers, all of the latter in some way representatives of Cecil Rhodes' British South Africa Company. The establishment of primary schools quickly followed the setting up of mission stations. The first school opened in 1883 at Limulunga, in Zambia's Western Province, with an enrollment of three boys (Snelson 1974). Today's formal school system developed from this simple beginning. The Period of British South Africa Company Administration Following its agreement with the paramount chief of the Lozi in 1890, the BSAC gradually extended its sphere of influence to other parts of the country. At first the region was administered as North-Western and North-Eastern Rhodesia, but following the amalgamation of the two sections in 1911, the BSAC administered the whole territory as the Protectorate of Northern Rhodesia. Company rule continued until 1924, when the Colonial Office in London assumed responsibility for the territory. During the BSAC's administration, with but one exception the provision of education remained the responsibility of the missionary agencies. The exception was the Barotse National School, established in March 1907 following an agreement between the BSAC and the paramount chief of the Lozi that a proportion of  8 Education in a Declining Economy: The Case of Zambia, 1975-85 the tax collected in Barotseland (now the Western Province) would be used to provide education for the Lozi people. All other educational developments up to April 1924 depended almost entirely on the "initiative, energy, perseverance, and financial resources of the missionary societies" (Snelson 1974, p. 269). By the time BSAC rule ended, about 1,500 schools were scattered throughout the territory, all poorly equipped. The enrollment was approximately 50,000. The schools were financed by whatever the impoverished missionary societies could afford. The failure of the BSAC to invest in education during the 34 "somnolent years" (Snelson 1974 , p. 121) of its rule meant that a generation and more of Northern Rhodesians lost their chance of receiving an education. This loss had its repercussions 40 years later when Zambia entered independence with a largely illiterate adult population and a pitifully small supply of educated manpower. The Colonial Era, 1924 to 1952 The Phelps-Stokes Commission was visiting countries in eastern Africa at the time that responsibility for the administration of Northern Rhodesia was transferred from the BSAC to the Colonial Office. The commission visited Northern Rhodesia in June 1924, and held extensive meetings with the missionary bodies and with government officials. The commission's tasks were to investigate the people's educational needs, to ascertain the extent to which these were being met, and to assist in the formulation of plans to meet these needs. The commission urged that the education to be provided should meet the people's real needs and should prepare students for life in the village community. This point is reflected in the Colonial Office's Advisory Committee report, Education Policy in British Tropical Africa, which states that "education should be adapted to the mentality, aptitudes, occupations and traditions of the various peoples, conserving as far as possible all sound and healthy elements in the fabric of their social life" (quoted in Snelson 1974, p. 142). Thus, education should aim at advancing agriculture, developing industries, improving health, training people in the management of their own affairs, and inculcating ideals of citizenship and service. Specifically, the Phelps-Stokes Commission advocated appointing a "director of native education," establishing an education advisory board that would represent all interested parties, subsidizing the educational work of the missions, and giving immediate priority to teacher training. The commission also advised that thought be given to setting up an institution that would provide some form of higher education. The outcome was the replacement of what had been little more than a haphazard collection of schools by a more formal education system administered in an increasingly professional manner. This administration rested almost entirely in the hands of the government through its Department of Native Education, although the actual provision and management of schools and institutes remained largely with the missionary societies. The administration's task was to foster a sound and efficient system of education in keeping with the policy described above. In time, the stated educational policy came to favor spreading the available resources over as many children as possible. The advance of a great multitude rather than the higher education of a select minority became almost a catch-call in educational policy circles in Northern Rhodesia. This policy was partly responsible for the hesitancy with which the colonial government in Lusaka addressed the provision of secondary and higher education. In contrast to views emanating from the Colonial Office, the local administration sensed a conflict  The Development of Education in Zambia Before 1975 9 between the provision of mass elementary education and some form of secondary or higher education. They could not see that these forms might be "complementary but not antagonistic" (Coombe 1967a, p. 192). Several other considerations also delayed the commencement of secondary education. Dominant among these were considerations of finance, of the economy's absorptive capacity, and of the hostility of a large section of the settler and miner population to the advancement of the local people. First, Northern Rhodesia, as was the case with other colonial territories, was expected to be financially self-supporting, hence it had to finance educational development from its own resources. These resources vanished in 1931 when the worldwide economic depression caused the country's young mining industry to collapse. Even at this early date, a strong link had been forged between the country's progress and the market for copper: The development of major new mining properties and a rapid rise in the copper price had brought sudden wealth to the territory, but from then onwards the country's fortunes were tied irrevocably to the fluctuating conditions of the world copper market: the volume of government expenditure was accordingly determined as much by the results of negotiations among the world's major mining houses in New York, Ottawa, and London, as by discussion in the secretariat in Livingstone or Lusaka (Coombe 1967a, pp. 182-3). The slump of the early 1930s and the tight control on government expenditure to which it led appear to have imbued the Northern Rhodesian government with an almost paranoiac fear that something similar might happen again. Even when government revenues and reserves increased enormously in the early 1940s because of the high, war-time demand for copper, the government was reluctant to invest in development projects. Second, the government feared it might produce an unemployed educated class. This fear even dictated some misgivings about the provision of higher levels of primary education: With a regular supply of Standard IV candidates available for vocational training the problem will be to make sure, as far as is possible, that no more pupils are trained in each line than can be readily absorbed in the country (NRG 1930, p. 17). A later report spoke about the danger of the emergence of a "discontented unemployed class" (NRG 1937, p. 11), and even as late as 1946, the Education Department responded defensively to a mission request to open a new secondary school by speaking of the danger of creating "an intellectual unemployed proletariat." As Mwanakatwe shrewdly observes: "Educational planners apparently gave no thought to the possibility of creating a discontented uneducated class of Africans" (Mwanakatwe 1968, p. 26). A third factor was the settlers' antipathy toward providing the local population with secondary education, their bitter opposition to any provisions for the African population that might reduce employment prospects for white settlers and immigrants, and their increasing success in having disproportionately large amounts of public funds devoted to developing a parallel, but independent and racially exclusive, system of European education. Recurrent expenditure on providing education for about 1,000 European children in 1937 considerably exceeded expenditures on over 30,000 African children the same year (without counting a further 74,000 African children in "unaided" schools). Imbalances in  10 Education in a Declining Economy: The Case ofZambia, 1975-85 the structure of educational financing, reflected today in the enormous difference between unit costs at the primary level and at the university, have clearly had a long history in Zambia. The expansion of primary education, however, required the development of teacher training, which in turn made identification of some trainers with postprimary education imperative. Persons trained beyond the primary level were also needed as clerical officers and technicians in government service and in some positions of trust in the native authorities and chiefs' courts through which the policy of indirect rule found expression. Some of the missionary bodies also wished to see some form of secondary education provided for Africans. Hence, in the absence of government action, one of these bodies established a secondary class at Kafue in 1935. However, the scheme did not last long. The first secondary class established with government support was opened at Lubwa Mission in Chinsali (Eastern Province) in 1938 with an enrollment of nine pupils. The following year, Munali Training Centre, which had opened in 1938 as a center for primary education, teacher training, and clerical courses, also began secondary provision, with an enrollment of 11 pupils. The Lubwa course ended in 1940, and a further attempt to begin a secondary program at Kafue ended with the four pupils concerned being transferred to Munali. The school expanded slowly at first and until 1946 was the only secondary school for Africans in the territory. Until Chipembi Girls' School started that year in the Central Province, no provision was made for the secondary education of girls. The slow and uneasy introduction of secondary education was followed by an equally slow and short-sighted approach to its expansion. By 1952, the country had only four junior secondary schools (offering the first two secondary classes) and one full senior school, with an entire enrollment of 384 boys and 21 girls. Zambia's critical manpower problems at the time of independence and many of its current difficulties in obtaining good quality, experienced, mid-level management may be laid at the door of this tardy development. In 1949, the Central African Council-a body set up to advise the governments of Northern and Southern Rhodesia and of Nyasaland on matters of common concern-appointed the Cartmel-Robinson Committee to report on the need for higher education for Africans. Upon the committee's advice, the Carr-Saunders Commission was established in 1952 to look into the question more thoroughly. Aware that moves were afoot in Salisbury (now Harare) to establish a university with separate facilities for blacks and whites, thereby perpetuating the separation of races that prevailed at lower levels of the system, the commission unanimously urged that a university college catering equally for all races be started without delay. It further recommended that if the proposals under discussion in Salisbury could not be modified along strictly nonracial lines, then such a university should not be established in Salisbury: "Our choice falls on Lusaka, whose importance is increasing and whose future is assured.... There, we believe, could arise a university worthy of central Africa" (Central African Council 1953, p. 46). This was not to be, however. The establishment a few years later of the University College of Rhodesia and Nyasaland ended any consideration of the establishment of a university institution in Northern Rhodesia. The dislike that Africans in Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland had for all federal establishments made the Salisbury college unpopular from the outset. It was not extensively patronized by students from either territory, and by the end of 1962 the Nyasaland government had withdrawn all its students. Eligible students from Northern Rhodesia continued to be sent to Salisbury for studies, but preferences were for  The Development of Education in Zambia Before 1975 11 programs elsewhere, while students already enrolled in Salisbury tended to seek awards that would take them to other universities. Two features of the education system during the colonial era continue to have pernicious effects today. One is the way it developed as a highly centralized and highly selective system. The curriculum was the same for all schools and was centrally designed and imposed. Clearly this left schools with few opportunities to provide an education that was adapted to their pupils' specific needs. The system's selective nature was such that progression from each grade to the next was by competitive examination. This also restricted schools' opportunities and willingness to be innovative and imaginative in responding to their pupils' particular needs. The requirements of the examinations dominated all the teaching and learning: More emphasis was given to a child's acquisition of a limited store of ill- assorted and often irrelevant facts than to his ability to think logically or to the development of his natural curiosity. For the ambitious child, education was a rat race. For the rest it was often a drudgery (Snelson 1974, p. 275). As will be seen later, these words still apply to much that goes on in classrooms today. The second feature was the failure to make adequate provision for the education of urban children. Most missionary societies had established themselves in the rural areas and set up their schools there. The colonial authorities, meanwhile, concerned themselves with the issue of whether schools should be set up in the mining centers. They stressed the dangers of attracting children to live in urban areas if schools were established for them, and for a time, they even considered that all children over the age of ten should be required to leave the industrial areas. Although the mining companies made some provision for the education of their employees' children, an organized primary school education program was started on the Copperbelt only in 1937, and even this could be operated only by the extensive use of double session teaching. Nevertheless, by 1943 the authorities thought that they had made such progress that they could introduce compulsory education in some of the towns. But they had seriously underestimated two things: the size of the potential school-age population, and the way in which the prospect of six full years of education would attract children from the rural areas to the towns. Subsequent educational development on the Copperbelt rested largely with a missionary society (the United Missions on the Copperbelt) and the mining companies, but the inability of these two agencies to meet the needs of the rapidly growing population, contributed to the current situation where the Copperbelt primary schools have room for fewer than 80 percent of the population. The Federal Era, 1953 to 1963 In 1953, against the wishes of the majority of the African people in Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland, the British government brought the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland into being. During the decade of the federation, the responsibility for education in Northern Rhodesia was divided. The territorial government retained responsibility for African education, while the federal government assumed responsibility for the education of other races. The government established high quality educational facilities in the major towns, but access was restricted to European children. The grim picture of the federation painted by most people was that it was an odious imposition designed to bolster  12 Education in a Declining Economy: The Case of Zambia, 1975-85 Southern Rhodesia's economic development using the wealth from the Northern Rhodesian mines and cheap labor from Nyasaland in preparation for the day when Southern Rhodesia would go it alone or would seek some form of integration with South Africa. Subsequent events confirmed the accuracy of this assessment The aim for African education during the first years of the federation was to consolidate and improve the primary school system, to develop secondary education and trade training schemes, and to increase the supply of trained teachers. By 1955, almost 200,000 children were in primary schools (35 percent of them girls), and just over 900 in secondary schools (but only 8 percent of these were girls). In 1957, the government shifted the direction of educational expansion to concentrate on two target areas: the development of secondary education and the provision of more primary school education in the main urban areas. By this time over half the children in urban areas could not find places in schools. Although administrative and organizational measures, such as double session teaching and a year round calendar, helped improve enrollment ratios, facilities in urban schools remained inadequate. The emphasis on the rapid expansion of secondary school facilities was stimulated by political events, since the federation was obviously not going to last, and its place would soon be taken by an independent territory. However, the priority given to secondary education and to increasing the provision of primary school facilities in urban areas involved curtailing the development of primary education in rural areas. This in turn led to an increase in the migration of rural children to the towns in search of education. The underdevelopment of their schools and the loss of many of their children have contributed to the underdeveloped state of the rural areas, both prior to independence and since. When the federation ended in December 1963, about 342,000 children were enrolled in primary school and 7,050 in secondary. Almost four-fifths of the primary school children were in the lower four classes, with boys making up 58 percent of the total enrollment. At the secondary level, 80 percent of the total enrollment were boys. The 1963 census, which was the first of its kind in the country, enabled the enrollment ratios for primary schools to be estimated as 62 percent for boys and 45 percent for girls, with places available in the first primary grade for 77 percent of the eligible population (eight-year-old boys and seven-year- old girls) (UNESCO 1964). A significant development toward the end of the federal era was the request by the Northern Rhodesia (territorial) government to the United Nations and to the British government to help it plan the future development of its education system, to advise on the establishment of a university, and to develop a framework for an integrated economic and social development plan. The report of the education mission, which was undertaken by UNESCO, provided a blueprint for future educational development, and showed in detail how the country could meet the target of universal primary education by 1980. It gave the highest priority to the development of a university, but left the details to another mission headed by Sir John Lockwood. It gave second priority to two objectives of equal importance: the expansion of secondary schooling and the rapid improvement of the quality of primary education. Three of the mission's recommendations are especially important because of their influence on educational provision today. * Despite the obvious difficulties, both administrative and pedagogic, English should be adopted as the sole medium of instruction from the commencement  The Development of Education in Zambia Before 1975 13 of primary school (UNESCO 1964, p. 25). * The number of well-qualified and well-trained teachers should be increased so that double session teaching would be eliminated at all primary school levels (UNESCO 1964, p. 19). * Education for farming was discussed at length. The report recognized that schools should play some part in helping to raise the subsistence level, but thought it foolish to expect the schools to do too much. Caustically, it observed that the agricultural work being done in primary schools appeared to do no harm, but "we are not sure that, as we saw it being done, it has any educational or social value or would lead to any better farming at home" (UNESCO 1964, p. 91). It stated that any worthwhile attempt to improve agricultural practice would depend on the quality of farming done by parents in their own community. Improvement would be reflected in increased income, and children would see that an agricultural way of life was a viable option. A few weeks before the UNESCO mission submitted its report, Lockwood and his colleagues submitted their recommendations on the establishment of a university (NRG 1964). Against the background of the Tannanarive Conference on the Development of Higher Education in Africa (UNESCO 1962) and of a growing influence of American ideas on higher educational provision, the guiding principle of the Lockwood Report was that Northern Rhodesia should establish a university without delay. The university should be responsive to the country's real needs, be autonomous from the outset, and be an institution that would win the recognition and respect of the academic world on merit. One of the Lockwood Report's most novel recommendations was that admission to the university should depend on satisfactory performance in the 0-level examinations (or equivalent), after 12 years of schooling, and not on A-level performance as was customary in all other university institutions in the former British world. The nationalist government that was established in January 1964 quickly accepted the recommendations and took steps to implement them. Education at Independence Zambia became an independent nation on October 24, 1964, rich in material and financial resources, but almost destitute in developed human resources. In the laconic words of a subsequent government report: "The educational system which Zambia inherited at Independence was by no means adequate to serve her manpower interests" (GRZ 1969, p. 30). The education statistics are stark. Estimates reveal that at independence, only 110,200 Africans had completed six years in primary schools, and only 32,000 had completed the full primary course of eight years. At the secondary level, although over 8,000 Africans were enrolled in schools, only 4,420 had passed the Junior Secondary (Form II) Examination, and a mere 961 had passed the School Certificate Examination (UN/ECA/FAO 1964). Only 107 had graduated from university, of whom only 4 were female (GRZ 1966a). These figures underscored the urgent need to expand education at all levels. They also serve to explain why "the basic objective of all educational programmes after Independence was to lay the foundation for the provision after 1970 of some of the much needed trained manpower in all fields of technical and economic activity" (Mwanakatwe 1968, p. 59).  14 Education in a Declining Economy: The Case of Zambia, 1975-85 The Decade of Comparative Prosperity, 1964 to 1974 During the first half of this decade, the government focused on the development of secondary schools and the university. During the second half, it turned its attention to technical education. Two considerations dictated the expansion of the secondary schools: popular demand for secondary education, and the need for educated manpower. Under the pressure of these two forces and with the support of a booming economy-the real GDP increased by 11 percent in 1964 and by a further 15 percent in 1965-the government began to expand the secondary school system at a rate higher than ever before attempted in a developing country(GRZ 1966a). The intake to secondary schools jumped from 4,700 in 1964 to 15,700 in 1969, an annual average growth rate of over 27 percent. Several problems plagued this rapid expansion: * the increasing capital and recurrent costs; * the construction industry's inability to build on the scale required, especially in remote areas; * the difficulty of maintaining a supply of well-qualified teachers; * the problems in providing the administrative and supervisory support that the greatly expanded system required. At the demand level, when expansion slowed down to some 6.4 percent per year between 1969 and 1974, pressure from the public for the provision of more secondary education remained as strong as ever. Although the expansion of primary schooling was not one of the government's top priorities immediately after independence, it did not overlook the needs at this level. The ambitious target set by the First National Development Plan (1966-70) was to provide sufficient places at the primary level so that by 1970 every child would be able to have at least four years of primary education; to expand the system so that all urban and 75 percent of the rural children could complete the full seven- year primary program from 1970 onward; and to improve quality by expanding teacher training and upgrading the standards of teachers (GRZ 1966b). The government did not meet these targets, largely because it underestimated the population of school-age children. Moreover, its accomplishments were not without problems: - almost all the schools developed during this period were provided on a self- help basis, but many of them were no more than temporary shelters that soon had to be replaced; * teachers were allocated the most unsuitable living accommodation, if any; * all surplus capacity was used up in urban areas by an extension of double session teaching to upper primary classes and the selective introduction of triple sessions at the lower primary level; * the teacher training program was reduced to one residential year so as to accelerate output (but was reextended to two years in phased stages in 1968 and 1969). The objective of the Second National Development Plan (1972-76) was to provide sufficient new places at the lower primary level to keep pace with population growth, and at the upper primary so as to achieve an 80 percent transition rate from grade 4 to grade 5 by 1976. Reflecting the need for secondary school expansion to relate clearly to manpower needs, the Second Plan faced up to the fact that: "For many years to come most children will receive no more than seven years of full-time  The Development of Education in Zambia Before 1975 15 schooling" (GRZ 1971, p. 128). Hence, it stressed the need for primary education to be truly terminal and for the community itself to become a major instrument of education. A number of problems that beset education today manifested themselves during the first decade of independence, 1964 to 1974. While some were merely a continuation of problems already experienced during the preindependence era, others added a new dimension. First, the recognition that for many years to come primary education would be terminal for most children brought into focus the issues of the relevance of the education received, and the allegations that it tended to alienate primary school-leavers from their communities and from rural life. Second, the rapid expansion of provision at all levels, but especially at the secondary, led to concern that the government was neglecting quality. Third, concern was also expressed about the whole nature of the education system. Awareness was growing about the disparities within the education system: between geographical areas, between sexes, and at an emergent level, between social classes. Fourth, the government had assumed almost the entire responsibility for the financing of education, without any contribution from the recipients. As a result, people expected the government to provide all the other inputs, namely, personnel, curricula, materials, maintenance, and even boarding provisions. By giving the widest possible meaning to the concept of free education, the government assumed an increasing burden in meeting many of the students' personal costs at all levels of education. These "transfer payments" were a new factor within the government budget for education from 1966 onward; one that proved increasingly burdensome and that limited the funds that might have been available for other more directly educational purposes. Fifth, with the stress on the development of the university and of technical education to provide the skilled manpower needed for Zambia's highly industrialized economy, the government realized in the late 1960s that science and mathematics were posing special problems: "The inadequacy of students' preparation in science and mathematics will handicap Zambia's manpower programme for many years" (GRZ 1969, p. 34). Intermingled with these various difficulties were the problems of administration: the managerial capacity required by a greatly expanded system; the ability to sustain developments; the capacity to formulate and execute policy; the ability to generate, collect, analyze, and use information; the system's overcentralization; the protracted bureaucracy that was emerging; and the lengthy and involved channels of communication. The administrative and managerial difficulties were exacerbated by the fairly rapid turnover of staff. This turnover was due in part to the desire of education managers to move to other fields, and in part to political decisions to move people around to expose them to administrative responsibilities in a number of ministries. Accompanying all these problems of a practical nature was the fact that education had not yet been brought to every eligible child, together with a growing uneasiness that, instead of promoting development education might be playing some role in obstructing it, or at best in slowing it down. People were increasingly aware of the imbalances developing in society and concerned lest education might be playing some role in giving rise to or perpetuating these imbalances. The education ministry was grappling with these problems when the economic crisis began to loom in 1975.  3 The Decline of Zambia's Economy Although a net deficit of K94.4 million was estimated for, an overall surplus of K165 million was realised which was mainly due to peak copper prices (GRZ Financial Report 1974, p. 1). The dramatic fall in copper prices due to the world economic recession, together with the closure of our traditional export and import routes and the rampant world inflation, largely contributed to the gross deficit of K379.1 million in 1975 (GRZ Financial Report 1975, p. i). These two statements from successive government financial reports underscore the abrupt change that occurred in Zambia's economic situation in 1975. The deterioration has continued since, with the economy showing a steady decline from one year to the next. Recently, in announcing a new economic recovery program, President Kaunda spoke of the "deep and prolonged crisis in our economy characterised by serious dislocations in both our internal and external sectors" (Kaunda 1987, p. 1). Zambia has felt the effects of the decline all the more sharply because of the contrast to the buoyant economy it enjoyed in the decade after independence, from 1964 to 1974, when the GDP maintained rapid growth, real output expanded, and the terms of trade improved. By contrast, since 1975 the growth of the GDP has been uncertain, sluggish, and at times stagnant or even negative in real terms; output has decreased; and the terms of trade have deteriorated seriously. The decline was rapid, sustained, and devastating and was of a magnitude described as "unparalleled by the experience of any other country in peacetime" (Simson 1985, p. 31). The Dependence on Minerals While a combination of several factors caused the massive economic decline, Zambia's major problem is that as a producer and exporter of primary commodities it has, over the years, developed production structures heavily dependent on imports. The primary commodities are minerals: lead, zinc, cobalt, but above all copper. Today, as in the past, the whole economy hinges on the mining industry and its ability to produce minerals that the industrialized countries will purchase. The quantity of minerals sold and the price obtained determine the volume of goods that 16  The Decline of Zambia's Economy 17 Zambia can import. Zambia's manufacturing and industrial sectors, including the mining industry itself and to some extent the agricultural sector, are heavily dependent on the importation of capital goods and raw materials. In the absence of the necessary imports, their operations run down and their productivity declines. The ability to purchase imports depends on receipts from mineral sales, which in turn depend on the level of demand in the industrialized countries. For its part, this depends on two factors, technological advances and the economies of the industrialized countries. Technological developments may reduce the need for copper and other metals, while the economic vigor of the industrialized countries greatly affects the demand for minerals. Zambia does not determine either of these factors. Hence, Zambia's dependence on the copper industry has resulted in its potential for self-development being determined largely by external forces over which it has no control. The following figures demonstrate the extent of Zambia's dependence on mineral production: from 1966 to 1970, receipts from taxation on mineral production and sales constituted more than 55 percent of annual government revenues, 60 percent of annual government expenditure, 44 percent of the GDP, and 95 percent of export earnings (table 3.1). In 1975, however, the contribution of mineral receipts to the economy fell rapidly, dwindling from some 7 percent in 1975 to virtually zero in 1977 and 1978. By 1979 the situation had deteriorated so badly that funds began flowing in the opposite direction, with more than 1 percent of the government annual expenditure being used to support the mining industry. Table 3.1 The Mining Industry's Contribution to Zambia's Economy, 1968-85 (a) (b) (c) Mineral Total govern- Total government (a) as a (a) as a revenues ment revenues expenditure percentage percentage Year (K millions) (K millions) (K millions) of (b) of (c) 1968 176.18 306.11 305.69 57.6 57.6 1970 251.08 432.43 380.99 58.1 65.9 1971 114.07 360.71 430.31 31.6 26.5 1972 55.69 315.22 363.18 17.7 15.3 1973 101.62 482.03 782.26 21.1 13.0 1974 314.73 713.28 634.70 44.1 49.6 1975 59.40 475.98 855.04 12.5 7.0 1976 11.60 635.47 936.40 1.8 1.2 1977 -1.19 539.78 821.00 -0.2 -0.1 1978 0.06 584.31 815.42 0.0 0.0 1979 -9.80 634.70 956.41 -1.5 -1.0 1980 41.71 808.46 1,657.57 5.2 2.5 1981 1.05 852.09 1,388.61 0.1 0.1 1982 0.00 878.71 1,643.24 0.0 0.0 1983 53.40 1,099.71 1,475.92 4.9 3.6 1984 94.50 1,119.86 1,484.63 8.4 6.4 1985 129.50 1,602.44 2,184.33 8.1 5.9 Source: GRZ Financial Reports (annual issues, 1968, 1970-85).  18 Education in a Declining Economy: The Case of Zambia, 1975-85 Some recovery has occurred since then, with mineral revenues accounting for about 8 percent of government receipts in 1985, but this improvement has been due more to changes in the taxation system and to depreciations in the local currency than to improved real receipts. The mining sector's contribution to the GDP fluctuates in current terms around 14 percent, but in real terms it declined from 11.6 percent in 1977 to 9.0 percent in 1985. In 1982 the real price of copper was at its lowest for nearly 40 years (Krumm 1985). During the years immediately after independence, the average real price was US4175 per pound; between 1975 and 1983 it fell to USv85 (Simson 1985); and by 1986 its price was round US