Morocco - Education Sector Reform Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 4 Report No. 9568 PROJECT COMPLETION r.EPORT RINGDOI4 OF MOROCCO EDUCATION SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM (LOAN 2664-MOR) MAY 17, 1991 Population and Human Resources Operations Division Country Department II Europe, Middle East and North Africa Regional Office This document bas a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Evolution of the Exchange Rate At Appraisal May 1985 US$ = DH 10.0 Period average 1986 USS 1 a DH 9.1 1987 USS 1 = DR 8.3 1988 US$ 1 - DH 8.2 1989 USS 1 = Du 8.5 1990 US$ 1 a DR 8.2  FOR OFFICIAL US ONLY THE WORLD BANK Washington. D.C. 20433 U.S.A, Office if Dw*Ct0V.C.laI 0-rai~n Evahatrn May 17, 1991 MEMORANDUM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS AND THE PRESrDENT SUBJECT: Project Completion Reports KINGDOM OF MOROCCO - Education Sector Reform Program - (Loan 2664-MgRI Attached, for information, is a copy of a report entitled "Project Completion Report: Kingdom of Morocco - Education Sector Reform Program (Loan 2664-MOR)" prepared by the Europe, Middle East and North Africa Regional Office, with Part II of the report contributed by the Borrower. No audit of this project has been made by the Operations Evaluation Department at this time. Attachment This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the perfomance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  FOR OFFICIL USE ONLY PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO EDUCATION SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM (LOAN 2664-MORI Table of Contentd Page No. Ereface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Evaluation Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii I. PROGRAM REVIEW FROM BANK'S PERSPECTIVE A. Program Identification and Key Information . . . . . . . . 1 B. Socioeconomic Background ... . . . . . . 1 C. Objectives and Description of the Program . . . . . . . . . . 2 D. Program Design and Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 E. Program Execution ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 3 F. Major Results of the Program ... . . . . . 4 G. Project Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 H. Borrower and Bank Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 I. Technical Assistance ... . . . . . ..... . . . . . . . 10 J. Documentation and Data Relating to the Program . . . . . . . 10 1I. PROGRAM REVIEW FROM BORROWER'S PERSPECTIVE . . . ..11 III. STATISTICAL INFORMATION A. Related Bank Loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 B. Program Timetable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 C. Cumulative Estimated and Actual Disbursements . . . . . . . . 18 D. Program Costs and Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 E. Program Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 P. Status of Covenants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 G. Use of Bank Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 r This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO EDUCATION. SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM (LOAN 2664-MOR: PREFACE This is the Project Completion Report (PCR) for the Educat .on Sector Reform Program in Morocco, for which Loan 2664-MOR in the Amount of US$150 million was approved on March 20, 1986. The loan was closed on December 31, 1989, one year behind schedule. The last payment was made on March 28, 1990. The PCR was jointly prepared by the Population and Human Resources Operations Division, Country Department II of the Europe, Middle East & North Africa Regional Office (Preface, Evaluation Summary, Parts I and III), and the Borrower (Part II). Preparation of this PCR was started during a mission in July 1990, and is based, inter alia, on the Staff Appraisal Report; the Loan Agreement; supervision reports; correspondence between the Bank and the Borrower; and internal Bank memoranda.  - Liii- PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO EDUCATION SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM ILOAN 2664-MOR) EVALUATION SUMMARY Obiectives 1. The loan supported the implementation of the first two-year phase of the Government's education sector reform program, aimed at making the provision of education more equitable, more cost-effective, and more consistent with the country's medium-term development needs. It also aimed at developing and implementing a number of pedagogical measures to improve the quality of education whxle extending the coverage of basic education and controlling the growth of education expenditures. Program Execution 2. On the recommendation of the first supervision mission (October 1986), the Bank postponed the second tranche release by six months. Reasonable progress was made in increasing enrollments in primary (grades 1-5) and upper basic (grades 6-9) cycles, slowing down access to secondary (grades 10-12) and higher education, reducing unit recurrent costs, and applying stricter eligibility criteria in awarding university fellowships. But the school construction program was behind schedule (mainly because of delayed payments by Ministry of Finance) and only one of the thirteen studies aimed at developing programs to improve the education system had been started. By mid 1987, these two components had made sufficient progress for the Bank to release the second tranche. one may question the validity of using construction performance as a tranche release condition in a loan which finances construction. 3. In the summer of 1987, however, the baccalaureate system was reorganized, granting in an exceptional fall session the baccalaureate to a large number of students who had failed in June, which resulted in a 21% increase in new entrants to university over the previous year, well above the 2% specified in the Loan Agreement. Pending agreement on policy issues in higher education, the Bank shelved the preparation of a second education sector loan, and focussed on strengthening primary education. The political determination to implement difficult measures, observed during program preparation, had considerably faded and the remaining program execution centered on monitoring enrollment targets and implementing the school construction program. The loan closed one year late to allow for full disbursement.  - iv - Results 4. Construction and eqipment: Although the number of primary and upper basic schools built was substantially lower than planned, they represent a major step towards extending education opportunitieo in previously underserved, mostly rural (f:- primary) and periurban (for upper basic) areas. The scaled down program reflects the implementation and supervision difficulties that a large- scale construction program in remote, rural, areas entails, as well as the decision by the Ministry of Education to slow down construction in light of lower-than-anticipated primary enrollments. 5. Oualitative and ouantitative: The ESRP had two main objectives: improve equity of education and control growth of education costs. Eauitv improvement was to be attained by increasing the share of education resourceL allocated to basic education and reducing the budget share of secondary and higher education - thus allowing for increased basic enrollments and slower growth in secondary and higher enrollments. By the end of the ESRP implementation, new entrants to Grade 1 were 16% lower than projected, new entrants to university were 30% higher than projected, upper basic and secondary enrollments were on target. The ESRP rightly identified the primary and higher education cycles as the problem areas in the sector. It failed, however, to properly assess the demand determinants for primary education in rural areas and the political and social pressures from urban populations for higher education. The latter made it impossible to shift additional budgetary allocations to basic education, although it cannot be inferred that investment levels were inadequate to promote growth in primary enrollments. The ESr? did not adequately assess the extent to which rural populations required specific measures to generate effective demand and tailor services accordingly. Efforts concentrated essentially on building schools, with little attention to complementary programs to increase participation. In addition, tha absence of post-primary education in most rural regions may have worked as a disincentive for parents to even consider primary education for their children. 6. The second objective was to control growth of education costs through increased efficiency in terms of student flows, reduction of unit recurrent costs, introduction of cost-recovery measures in higher education, and encouragement of private-sector participation. Overall, promotion rates for the nine-year basic education cycle made modest gains. Unit recurrent costs for primary education (of which 95% are salary-related) were 43% higher than projected, reflecting the expansion into rural areas with unavoidable lower student:teacher ratio as well as lower-than-anticipated enrollments. Unit recurrent costs in higher education were on target, with a 23% decrease over the base year (1985/86), reflecting the Government's effort to curtail costs by slowing down recruitment of new teachers, increasing teaching hours, while enrollments were growing annually by 10.5%. Little was put into place to encourage private participation and introduce cost-recovery measures. 7. The ESRP alvo aimed at improving employment orientation of schooling at all levels and strengthening and expanding vocational training. Little was done in that respect. A few inspectors were trained as career counselors and assigned  to middle and secondary schools. The vocational training system was not able to absorb a larger share of school leavers, for two reasons: the system did not grow as anticipated and most vocatiotial training centers are in urban areas, whereas most school leavers are in rural areas (particularly true for students leaving the school system before completing Grade 9). Proiect Sustainabilitv 8. The schools built allow access to basic education to a growing number of children from areas previously not or poorly served. Initial modest efforts towards costs-savings measures in higher education laid the foundation for further reforms. Finally, the construction management organization put in place at the end of the program has shown substantial improvements in school construction supervision in later operations. However, the ESRP proved inherently unsustainable, to the extent that the desired restructuring away from secondary and tertiary spending was ultimately reversed through social demand. Conclusions and Lessons 9. The design of the program was, with hindsight, overly ambitious. The mechanical aspects of monitoring enrollment growth, student flows and other education indicators was well mastered by the Borrower's implementing team and by Bank staff. The Government and the Bank, however, underestimated the difficulty of sustaining political commitment to implement potentially volatile measures such as the drastic reduction of admission to university, in a francophone culture where the baccalaureate functions both as a secondary school completion certificate and admission to higher education. In spite of these shortcomings, the ESRP was successful in expanding primary education into rural areas (albeit to a lesser degree than planned). Current efforts to identify determinants of demand for primary education from rural populations should help maximize investments made under the ESRP. In addition, continued policy dialogue on higher education is leading to the preparation of a proposed Higher Education Funding Reform Project, which will further the initial effort at introducing cost-recovery measures and increase university autonomy and privatization of investments and programs. Finally, the Borrower and the Bank have come to realize that a large number of studies cannot be undertaken adequately at the same time, and the latest operation (Rural Basic Education Development Project) only supports two studies.  PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT RINGDOM OF MOROCCO ALr:TION SECTOR REFORM PROGRAM SLOAN 2664-MORI I. PROGRAM REVIEW FRO BANK'S PERSPECTIVE A. Proarana Identificatlon and Xev Information Project Name: Education Sector Reform Program Loan No.: 2664-MOR Borrower: Kingdom of Morocco Sector: Education Sub-sectors: Basic Education Secondary Education Higher Education Amount of loan: US$150 million Board Approval: March 1986 Effective date: September 1986 Original closing date: December 31, 1988 Actual closing date: December 31, 189 (The loan account was closed on March 28, 1990 to permit all disbursements for committed expenditures.) B. Socioeconomic Background 1. The Education Sector Reform Program (ESRP) was a key element of the Government's strategy for economic reatructuring and containment of public expenditures in the first half of the b0.. The large public investment program launched in the 70s (financed initially by a phosphate boom which subsided sha:-ply in the late 70s), a rapidly rising petroleum import bill, and increased defense expenditures in the Western Sahara resulted in sharp increases in the treasury deficit. Morocco resorted to substantial foreign borrowings to alleviate balance of payments pressures. By 1983, the Government's room to maneuver was becoming very restricTL.d, and the country negotiated a Standby Agreement witl. the IMF supporting a stabilization program which included severe budgetary restraints. 2. The education sector had greatly benefit-d from the expansion of the late 70s-early 80s: the share of tho Government's buoit (investment and recurrent) allocated to education (primary, secondary and highei.- had increased from around 14% in the late 70s to around 19% in the early 80s. ' Primary and secondary enrollments were increasing annually by close to 6% a.11 higher education enrollments by about 14%. _> 3. The country's financial constraints made it clear that further growth in the education system could only be made in the context of concerted efforts to control education costs, particularly in higher education, and to improve the  -2- efficiency of use of education resources at every level. More specifically, the new austerity was imposing severe cuts in capital outlays as well as restrictions on civil service recruitment and salary increases, the latter measures affecting particularly the education *ector, the largest user of civil service manpower (about 40% of total). C. Objectives and Description of tho Proaram 4. The loan supported the implementation of the first two-year phase of the Government's Education Sector Reform Program. The objectives of the reform program were to make the provision of education more equitable, more cost- effective, and more consistent with the countryIs medium-term development needs. It would do this through three major policy changes: (a) it would improve equity of education by increasing the share of education resources devoted to basic education (grades 1 through 9), and slowing the growth of education at other levels, with a major increase in the number of student entering and completing basic education; (b) it would control the growth of education costs through increased educational efficiency in terms of improved student flows, reduction of unit costs, introduction of cost recovery measures, and encouragement of private-sector participation; and (c) it would attempt to meet the needs of the economy and of school leavers through improved employment orientation of schooling at all levels and strengthening and expansion of vocational training. At the same time, it aimed at supporting the Government's effort to develop and implement a number of pedagogical measures to improve the quality of education programs while extending the coverage of basic education and controlling the growth of education expenditures. S. The loan would finance a program of construction and equipping of schools, teacher training, foreign fellowships and studies. It would be made available for disbursement in two tranches of $75 million each: the first tranche at loan effectiveness, the second tranche upon confirmation, through an interim review, of satisfactory rarformance - assessed on the basis of a number of indicators -to be conducted by December 31, 1986. D. Program Desian and organization 6. Discussions with the Government on the content of the education sector reform were initiated following the October 1981 Education and Training Sector Survey. The specific findings and recommendations of that survey were discussed with the Government first in the context of the 1981-85 Economic Plan Review, then in the context of the conditions of the 1983 IMF Standby Agreement. Recommendations pertaining to limitation of teacher recruitment and reduced levels of fellowships and teacher training stipends were included among the conditions agreed with the IMF for the 1983 Standby. An October 1983 education sector mission discassed additional reform measures with the Ministry of  -3- Education (MOE) and examined with the Min'stry of Finance (HOF) the impact of the proposed reform program upon short-term investment requirementa in terms of budgetary commitments and expenditures. The letter activity was conducted in the context of the Government/Bank joint public investment review. A March 1984 mission reached agreement with the MOE on the objectives and key measures of the education reform. Subsequent discussions focussed on the budgetary and political feasibility and phasing of the proposed refon.i program. P;.ilowing that mission, the educatton reform proposals were incorporated into a highly disaggregated projection model of enrollments, teaching inputs, and associated investment and recurrent expenditure requirements. This model, in its mechanical transparency, was to become the driving force for the measures to be implemented and overshadowed the taxing political and social issues which would arise from the introduction of many of these measures. Discussions on the content and costs of the reform program were held in October and December 1984 with the various concerned ministries. Following these discussions, the projected cost implications of the reform program were refined and confirmed with the Government during the April/May 1985 appraisal mission. The support of all ministries involved in the proposed reform was confirmed, and the reform program was presented to and endorsed by the Parliament. 7. The reform program constituted a fundamental reorientation of national education goals away from a vertical system - in which schooling at each level concentrated on preparing students to the next level up to university graduates - toward a more equitable, broad-based schooling system. The Government was increasingly aware that :ts past strategy focussed on a vertical education atructure was not serving the country's basic educationul needs. The recent emergence of unemployment among university graduates, together with the prospect of uncontrolled education expenditures to maintain such a system in the futura, led the Government to alter its education strategy. S. Program Execution 8. From the beginning, the program implementation, and its supervision, seem to have been driven by the mechanics of the projections model. Progress was assessed on the basis of performance indicators (essentially enrollment numbers and promotion rates) and as long as observed results were generally in line with projections, little concarn was raised over the sustainability of political will to implement arduous measures. On the recommendation of the first supervision mission, the Bank postponed the scheduled date of second tranche release from January 1 to June 1, 1987: although reasonable progress was made in increasing enrollments in primary and upper basic cycles, slowing down access to secondary and higher education, reducing unit recurrenst costs, and applying stricter eligibility criteria in awarding fellowships to university students, progress on the school construction program was slower than anticipated - )_he result, mainly, of slow payments by MOF - and all but one of the thirteen (later to be regrouped into twelve) studies aimed at developing programs to improve the education system (see para. 24) had yet to be started. By July, the school construction program and the studies had made sufficient progress to warrant release of the second tranche, which the Bank did in September (by which time the first tranche was fully disbursed). One may question, however, the validity of using construction performance as a tranche release condition in a loan which finances construction.  9. In the summer of 1987, however, au a result of strong student prcsure, the baccalaureate system was reorganized, granting, in an exceptional fall session, the baccalaureate to a large number of students who had failed in June, which resulted in a 25% estimated increase (later assessed at 21%) in now entrants to university in October 1987, in clear violation of the 2% agreed in the Loan Agreement. Pending agreement on policy issues in higher education, the Bank shelved the preparation of a second education sector loan, uncertain of the viability of the sector-wide policy framework which had underlined the E8RP. (The components aimed at generalizing basic education through increased primary enrollments - still a Government priority - were reorganized into the FY89 Rural Primary Education Project, a regular investment loan of more modest size). Discussions on reducing higher education funding pressures continued however on the basis of a Bank subsector study, which proposed a number of possible cost- saing and cost-recovery moesures, some of which are included in the proposed FY93 Higher Education Funding Reform Project. 10. The remaining program implementation was uneventful. The Government's initial commitment and eagerness to imploment difficult measures had cons? lerably waned and supervision focussed on assessing progress of the school conertuction program, the studies, and disbursements. The closing date was extended from December 1988 to December 1989 to allow for full loan utilization: disbursements had lagged due mainly to delays in assembling documentation for teacher training expenditures. F. Maior Results of the Program construction and eaui=ment results 11. 3809 classrooms, 470 canteens, and 1827 housing facilities for primary education, and 1123 upper basic classrooms were built and equipped under the ESRP. Although this is significantly less than the overly optimistic numbers projected at appraisal (8934 primary classrooms, 1075 canteens, 3227 housing facilities, and 6871 upper basic classrooms), it represents a major step towards extending education opportunities in previously underserved, mostly rural, areas, where most of the primary school construction effort was concentrated. The smaller than planned construction program resulted mainly irom two factors. Although the MOE had previously implemented school construction programs of similar scope to the one planned under the ESRP, these programs had been essentially targeted to urban areas. By venturing on a large scale into remote, rural areas, the MOE was faced with implementation and supervision difficulties not encountered before. In addition, in light of lower-than-projected primary enrollments, the MOE rightly scaled down its school construction program to maximize utilization of existing infrastructures. 12. The prefabricated structures used for primary education offered the dual advantage of being about half the price of masonry and being built in about 3 months (as opposed to 18 months for masonry). Qualitatively, however, they present a number of flaws: no roof insulation, resulting in very hot interiors in the spring and fall, cold air currents in the winter months, and little noise reduction between adjacent spaces; insufficient window areas, resulting in dark rooms (most schools do not have electricity); inadequate reinforcement of the  -5- concrete slabs-on-grade, resulting in cracks in slabs and walls, which weaken the structures, potentially a health hazard, particularly in earthquake-prone regions. 13. Many of the construction flaws could have been avoided with adequate supervision. The ESRP was the first operation for which the MOE turned over the execution-phase responsibilities to its regional delegations, poorly staffed in technical expertise to oversee a substantial construction program. In addition, lack of coordination resulted in many schools being equipped late or insufficiently. The MOE'. new (1988) construction management organization has markedly improved: at headquarters, technical staff has been hired and trained, and regional delegations are also being strengthened. Oualitative and quantitative results 14. One of the main objectives of the ESRP was to imorove ecuity of education by increasing the share of education resources devoted to basic education, which should result in growing basic education enrollments and slower growth of secondary and higher education enrollments. The share of MOE's investment budget allocated to primary and secondary education - budget documents still reflect the old categorization system of primary (grades 1-5) and secondary (grades 6-12) cycles, and do not allow for easy disaggregation between upper basic (grades 6-9) and secondary (grades 10-12) cycles - went from 84% in 1984 to 76% in 1987 to 73% in 1990. The share of MOE's recurrent budget allocated to primary and secondary has remained fairly constant at around 83%. The relevant education indicators for 1987/88 (last year of ESRP) behaved as follows, when compared to the base year (1984/85) and to targets: - new entrants to Grade 1 had increased by 14% 1 (16% less than projected); - primary enrollments had gone down by 7% 2 and were 14% less than projected; - the promotion rate from grade 5 to grade 6 was 4% higher than projected; - upper basic enrollments were 1% more than projected; - secondary enrollments were right on target; - new entrants to higher education were 30% higher than planned; and - higher education enrollments were 12% higher than planned. 15. The indicators clearly show that the main areas of concern in the education system are primary and higher education. The upper basic and secondary cycles depend largely from movement in the primary cycle and the ESRP's three-year horizon was too short to reflect the impact of slower primary enrollments on the 1/ In 1984/85, 6-year-olds were not allowed to enter Grade 1 (legal entry age is 7, although 6-year-olds account for about 20% of new enrollments). In 1983/84, 55000 6-year-olds had been admitted to Grade 1, resulting in a shrunk pool of 7-year-olds the year after. To correct for this, a three-year average (1983/84 - 1985/86) was used as base year. 2/ Over the 1983/84 - 1985/86 three-year average, to smooth out the dip in Grade 1 enrollments explained above.  -6- upper basic and secondary cycles. The ESRP had rightly identified the problem areas in education. It failed, however, to properly assess two forceful elements: the demand determinants for primary education in rural areas and the political and social pressures driving demand for higher education. 16. It was commonly assumed among Government circles that low enrollments resulted from insufficient infrastructures and that additional investment resources to basic education would generate growth in enrollment rates. Admittedly, the share of the education investment budget allocated to basic education shrank during implementaticn of the ESRP - instead of increasing as planned - and shrank even further up to 1990. It is not clear, however, that the absolute level of investments (which grew annually by 2.5% in real terms) was insufficient to give a new impetus to enrollments. The education system failed to recognize to what extent rural populations required specific measures to generate effective demand and tailor services accordingly. Efforts concentrated mainly on building schools closer to rural settlements, undoubtedly a strong contributing factor to initial enrollments, albeit at rising unit costs. These efforts, however, were not complemented by programs specifically designed to increase participation: awareness campaigns to promote the direct and indirect benefits of education, particularly for girls, were only started in 1989; availability of affordable educational materials and textbooks remained sporadic; selection criteria for student teachers gave no weight to readiness to serve in rural areas, and the lack of career or housing incentives for such assignments resulted in excessive teacher turnover; only a small proportion of rural schools had canteens providing a free meal, and even fewer had safe water, sanitation or electricity; and the higher opportunity cost of child labor at home or in the fields was not adequately factored into school schedules and curricula. 17. In addition, post-primary education was (and still is) all but inexistent in rural areas, for which the closest upper basic school is at least 30 miles away (and over 100 miles away for many), and involves costs and risks, and a distant and uncertain labor market payoff. In the home vicinity, there are few if any integrated role-models of successful school graduates beyond the primary level, especially for females, to help balance these disincentives. In sum, when the whole education and career system is seen as a loaded lottery, it is hardly surprising that rural parents' perception of the returns to basic education diverge from the longer-term returns to society, and therefore that primary attendance can lag behind available places. 18. Strong social pressure from urban populations for secondary and higher education compressed the share of MOE's investment budget allocated to basic education. The ESRP, while attempting to curtail growth of the higher cycles of education to permit more rapid growth at the base, underestimated the political threat of such a pressure. Although the share of education investment budget going to higher education grew instead of shrinking as planned, the Government noticeably curtailed all new investments. Such a measure, when combined with another austerity measure such as limiting new entrants to university were imposing strict constraints while not offering any changes to the demand structure. Limiting annual growth of new enrollments to university to 2% was unrealistic: during the first half of the 80s, passing rates within the secondary cycle had slightly improved; the baccalaureate passing rate remained fairly  -7- constant; secondary enrollments increased annually by about 8%; higher education enrollments increased by about 9%; new enrollments in higher education had grown at the average annual rate of 13% over the eight preceding years (as quoted in the SAR). In addition, it was culturally unfeasible to introduce an education model inspired from Anglo-saxon tradition, which advocated delinking secondary school completion from entrance to university, in an education system based on francophone tradition where the baccalaureate functions both to a secondary school completion certificate and admission to higher education. Reliance on the political commitment expressed by one person (albeit the then Minister of Education) proved fragile. The absence of structural changes to demand patterns made it impossible to gain Government's support and commitment in implementing these measures. The lack of ownership to these two ideas (drastic reduction of new entrants to university and changing the purpose of the baccalaureate) became quite clear once the reform advocate left the ministry. Even allowing for recent rulings restricting access to university for civil servants, the country could not afford such drastic reductions in higher education without creating a volatile situation. 19. A second important objective of the ESRP was to control the crowth of education costs through increased efficiency in terms of improved student flows, reduction of unit recurrent costs, introduction of cost-recovery measures in higher education, and encouragement of private-sector participation. The relevant indicators behaved as follows between 1984/85 and 1987/88: - promotion rates for 7rades 1 to 4 improved on average by about 2.5 points (from 75% to 77.5%); - promotion rate from grade 5 (end of primary cycle) to grade 6 increased by about 13 points (from 49% to 62.2%); - promotion rate from grade 6 to grade 7 decreased by 7 points (from 86.4% to 79.5%); - promotion rate for grades 8 and 9 remained fairly constant; - unit recurrent costs for primary cycle increased by 17% (and were 43% higher than projected); - unit recurrent costs !or higher education decreased by 23% (and were only 4% higher than projected); 20. Overall, promotion rates for the nine-year basic education cycle made modest gains. The substantial improvement in passing rate at the end of the primary cycle was mostly wiped out by an increase in dropout rate in grade 6 (from 4.2% to 9.8%). Two reasons can be advanced: a more lenient passing rate in grade 5 allowed the promotion of students who were not academically prepared or had the necessary maturity to face the more rigorous structure of upper basic schools. In addition, in view of the high concentration of upper basic schools in urban areas, newly promoted students from disadvantaged and rural areas found it increasingly difficult to bear the costs and logistics of attending urban schools. 21. Unit recurrent costs for primary education (of which 95% are salary- related) reflect the expansion into rural areas with unavoidable lower student:teacher ratio as well as lower-than-anticipated enrollments. The reduction in higher education unit cost resulted from enrollments growing yearly  by 10.5% in the 1984/85 - 1987/88 period while the recurrent budget grew annually by 1% in real terms, reflecting the Government's determined effort to curtail costs by slowing down recruitment of new teachers and by increasing minimum teaching workload by about 20%. 22. Some cost-saving measures were put in place in higher education: (i) some of the eligibility criteria agreed at appraisal for awarding university fellowships were introduced, and although the number of fellowships grow at about the same pace as enrollments, an increasing number of them were partial fellowships (25%, 50%, or 75%); (ii) access to university was sharply restricted for civil servants; (iii) student teachers' allowances were reduced from quasi- salaries to levels more in line with university students' fellowships. Little was done regarding the last two measures aimed at controlling the growth of education costs: no specific plan was introduced to encourage private participation in higher education; and no cost-recovery mechanisms were introduced in higher education. 23. The ESRP also aimed at improving employment orientation of schooling at all levels and strengthening and expanding vocational training. Little was done in that respect. A few inspectors were trained as orientation advisors and assigned to middle and secondary schools. The vocational training system was not able to absorb a larger share of school leavers, for two reasons: the system did not grow as anticipated and most vocational training centers are in urban areas, whereas most school leavers are in rural areas (particularly true for students leaving the school system before completing Grade 9). 24. Thirteen studies were included in the ESRP to develop policies, programs, and guidelines with the following objectives (as listed in Schedule 2 of the Loan Agreement): (1) reduce the costs of construction of secondary schools; (2) periodic maintenance of school facilities; (3) rationalize the management of primary and secondary schools and enhance the efficient provision of teaching services in such schools; (4) diagnostic and standardized achievement testing of primary and secondary school students; (5) remedial instruction for primary and secondary students with learning difficulties; (6) multi-grade instruction in rural primary schools; (7) career guidance counselling for secondary school students; (8) training to upgrade the technical skills o' teachers and other education staff; (9) improve the coherence between secondary school and university curricula; (10) diversify university curricula based on a credit-hour system; (11) provide educational materials to university libraries and laboratories; (12) periodic maintenance of university facilities; (13) identify, evaluate and recommend: (i) incentives designed to encourage the development of adequate primary and secondary private schools; and (ii) systems of monitoring and supervision by MOE of the education provided in private schools.  -9- The objectives listed above were regrouped under eleven studies during implementation: (1) and (2) became one study, (4) was divided into two studies, (11) and (12) were canceled, and a new study on manpower planning was added, bringing the total number of studies to twelve. It is unclear from project documents available if the Bank formally agreed to these changes or if they simply reflect thie evolution of objectives over time. Of the twelve studies, only one was fully completed (multi-grade teaching) and some of its recommendations have been introduced on a very small scale. Interim reporte for seven other studies were prepared numbers (3),(7),(8),(9),(l0),(13) and the manpower planning study). Only very preliminary progress reports were produced for the remaining four studies (numbers (1/2),(4a),(4b),(5)J. The objectives of these studies are still very relevant and some of these issues are being dealt with under subsequent operations. Overall, the results of the studies were disappointing. To a large extent, this can be explained by the fact that all the studies were managed by MOE staff, subcontracted by an intermediary institution. The Government felt that adequate expertise existed in the country to carry out these studies and was reluctant to incur large expenses by hiring foreign consultants. As it turns out, the studies cost about $2 million (well above the cost of hiring foreign expertise) and, although the Borrower had rightly identified qualified local experts , it overestimated the availability of civil servants to carry out additional tasks (even if remunerated). 25. Morocco, assisted by the Bank and the African Development Bank, has embarked on a series of operations aimed at redressing the education system: the FY89 Rural Primary Education Project focuses on increasing access and participation in rural areas through a joint program of school construction and targeted measures to promote demand, including textbook programs, awareness campaigns targeted on female education, housing and recruitment incentives, and improvements in school food, water and sanitation conditions. In addition, sector work is underway designed to quantify school and home-environment constraints to primary school attendance in rural areas, especially for girls. The FY91 Rural Basic Education Development Project, recently approved by the Board, aims at increasing access and participation to upper basic education in rural areas, thus providing the missing link between primary education and labor market opportunities. Finally, the proposed FY93 Higher Education Funding Reform Project, by promoting cost-recovery mechanisms and the expansion of private education, should lessen the risk of insufficient funding for basic education by creating an outlet for excess demand for higher levels. C. Program Sustainabilitv. 26. The schools built allow access to basic education to an ever growing number of children from areas previously not or poorly served with schools, particularly in the case of primary schools in rural areas. The recent effort in identifying determinants of demand for education from rural populations should enable better utilization of these investments. The initial timid effort toward cost-saving measures in higher education laid down the foundation for further reforms which will be introduced under the proposed FY93 Higher Education Funding Reform Project. Finally, the construction management organization put in place in the MOE since 1988 has already shown definite improvements in the supervision of  - 10 - large school construction programs and is still being improved, which should facilitate implementation of future operations. H. Borrower and Bank Performance. 27. The Borrower can be credited with courage and determination in trying to introduce potentially volatile policy measures. But the Borrower and the Bank, however, can both be faulted for excessive optimism in underestimating the increasing political and social cost of sustaining the implementation of such measures, which led to a disagreement on policy issues in higher education. Both parties can also be faulted for assigning (and allowing) responsibility of the studies to MOE staff, whose results were costly and unsatisfactory. I. Technical assistance. 28. The Government felt confident that the studies could be carried out by local task forces, under the coordination of the CNCPRST (Centre national de coordination et de planification de la recherche scientifique et technique). All task forces, however, were headed by MOE staff from central administration, universities, high schools and regional delegations. This arrangement did not allow for new perspectives and inhibited impartial assessment. In addition, it overburdened already stretched civil servants. When disputes over payments arose, enthusiasm disappeared quickly and most studies remained unfinished. In retrospect, the $2 million spent on this exercise bought little new insight in the problem areas of the education system. J. Documentation and Data Relating to the Program. 29. The program was implemented on the basis of the usual documents: Loan Agreement, Appraisal Report, and President's Report. Information needed for preparation of this Project Completion Report was available from the MOE's DP and from Bank files. The supervision reports focused heavily on the physical and financial aspects of the program - construction, equipment delivery, disbursements and audit reports - and on education monitoring indicators. They remained fairly silent on the policy discussions which must have taken place.  II. PROGRAM REIEW FROM BORROWER'S PERSPECTIVE I. Context of the reform 1. The Moroccan Government's efforts in the education sector since independence have focused on the expansion of school capacity at all education levels, the Moroccanization of teaching staff and the development of new programs to keep pace with the country's socioeconomic development. Despite the many successive gains at all education levels, basic schooling is still inaccessible to a large proportion of the country's school-age population. Low enrollments are due primarily to the shortage of school facilities, particularly in the rural areas. The scattered nature of the population in low-density areas and the practice of the Ministry of Education to provide one classroom for every level means that a significant proportion of school capacity is inevitably underutilized. The enrollment of girls is still well below that of boys, particularly in the rural areas. Although the establishment of separate classes for boys and girls might help to break down the reticence of parents about sending their daughters to school, the cost would be prohibitive because of the very small numbers of students per class. The alternative, which consists in stepping up the hiring of female teachers for the rural schools, is positively correlated with female enrollments, but the assigning o,f female teachers to rural schools is constrained by the shortage of suitable housing close by. In addition, one of the most serious problems facing the education system in Morocco is its poor internal efficiency at all levels, as evidenced by the heavy losses caused by the high dropout rate, when educational resources are limited. 2. With respect to public spending on education, the desire to complete higher education has until now been fanned by civil service hiring policies, which give priority to secondary school and university graduates. Efforts to meet the demand for access to higher education have consequently resulted in a substantial increase in public spending. From an economic standpoint, the expansion of basic schooling is a prerequisite for improving labor productivity, whether that instruction leads to vocational training, academic education or directly to the job market. The program therefore aims essentially to foster the development of education services that are more equitable, more efficient and better suited to community development. 3. The program is thus expected to help: (i) increase the share of education funds allocated to basic schooling; (ii) improve the internal efficiency of the system and ensure that education is oriented towards all levels of employment; and (iii) monitor public spending on education through lower unit costs and cost- sharing achieved by encouraging private education. 4. Although the effects of the reform will be felt only in the long run and certain ripple effects on living standards and the social development of the community (literacy, hygiene, demographics, etc.) cannot yet be quantified, this report seeks to make a selective analysis of the impact that can be expected from the program, comparing expectations with actual achievements. The analysis is based strictly on the available data.  - 12 - II. Program imnlementation Quantitative _asects S. Physical implementation: At the primary level, the construction of 3,369 classrooms, 1,009 canteens, 1,827 housing units and 822 water reservoirs has paved the way for expanding access to the first cycle of bauic education, particularly in the marginal outlying regions. The importance given to the construction of water reservoirs highlights the priority placed by the Government on increasing the demand for education in communities lacking basic infrastructure. However, despite plans to use prefabricated materials to ensure speedy construction, delays in execution have been as much as 10 months. These slippages in the implementation schedule are essentially attributable to the monopoly of two firms on this type of construction and to the cumbersome red tape involved in procurement. In order to enhance the potential for progress in science and technology, major importance was plat-ed on providing special equipment to the recently established acad6mies, secondary schools and teacher training school 6 . Monitorina of costs: Besides a reduction in student teacher (pr6salalres) salaries, teacher training courses were revised and replaced by more economic formulae. Primary teachers have two training options, one requiring the baccalaurdat with one year of training, and the other calling for a licence plus one year of training. At that level, training is in a paradoxical position; in response to the concern about absorbing a number of unemployed university graduates, teachers with licences have access to a higher pay scale. Lower secondary teachers are recruited from among graduates of the first cycle of university (students who have their DEUG) and put through a year of training. For secondary teachers, the one-year training cycle is offered to students with licences. In the interests of cost-sharing, efforts are continuing to encourage private education. The investment code is currently pending approval. Although private education is not very widespread, encouragement of its development is particularly apparent for the first cycle of basic schooling, where the share of private education increased from 3% in 1986 to 4% in 1989. For secondary education, as private education essentially amounts to an "emergency exit" for those excluded from the public system, parents' enthusiasm about giving their children a second chance to graduate no longer seems to be justified, particularly in view of the fact that the economic value of the high school diploma has been eroded. The share of private education at that level accordingly declined from 6% to 3% between 1986 and 1989. According to school construction officials, the usual building standards have remained unchanged, and more efficient design and construction may offer substantial savings in capital outlays. Pedaaoaic aspects 7. Access to basic education: The new measures seem to be paying off in terms of expanding access to basic education. The impact of the measures has been significant quantitatively in terms of enrollments. Between 1984-85 and 1989-90 the first-year new intake rate increased to 5.6%, as against the target of 6.1%. The promotion rate at the end of the fifth grade improved significantly, up from  - 13 - 37.9% prior to the reform to 73%1, compatible with the 87% target set for 1993. Forecasts of the number of students completing the nine-year basic education program (primary and lower secondary education) have been exceeded; 293,667 students were enrolled in the ninth year in 1989/90, compared to the projection of 289,571, by virtue of improvements in bottlenecks upstream and the reduction downstream in the proportion of students streamed for secondary education. 8. Slowdown in eecondarv education: The reform objectives provide for a scaling-down of secondary education, with a view to making basic schooling accessible to all, and restricti:,g access to further education to those students with the best scholastic per.urmance. In terms of numbers, the negative rate of increase at this level of education between 1984-85 and 1989-90 is significant: during that period enrollments remained almost constant, declining by -0.3%, as compared to the increase of 1.5% targeted by the reform. In view of this more rigorous selection beyond basic education (40% intake of students into secondary education), providing access to vocational training should be the cornerstone of any further action. 9. To that end, the feasibility of incorporating an integrated vocational training stream within the school system has been the subject of a study in close collaboration with vocational training officials. While recognizing the relevance of such a stream, those officials are reluctant to become involved in such an operation, claiming tha'- such a move would be premature in view of technical deficiencies (shortage of guidance counsellors) and psychological blocks (resistance to change) of the training departments. While partially founded, the constraints claimed by the training departments do not represent insurmountable obstacles to the introduction of the procedure proposed. The shortage of guidance counsellors attached to the training departments by no means precludes the project in that it has been proposed to offset this problem by pooling all the human resources available both in the Ministry of Education and the other departments involved. 10. Fears concerning the imbalance between the students opting for vocational training and the capacity of the vocational training centers involved are not insurmountable either, since the reform provides for coordination at the school mapping stage to manage student overflows and deficits. Training provided under contracts with employers can be marginal at best. Such contracts do not necessarily mean that the streaming procedure cannot be followed when the candidates are recruited for such training. In light of the desire of the training departments not to lose control over the selection/ guidance of candidates for vocational training, the solution currently being developed consists of allowing the training departments all the leeway they need to organize the selection and decide unilaterally on the streaming of the candidates selected from among students in the general education system. Such streaming is definitely not favored by the training departments. Only a policy decision a.pplicable across the board will ensure students some kind of organized transition between general education and vocational training. I/ Public + private education.  - 14 - 11. Improved efficiengy of education: The strict selection process in the ninth year of basic education was in line with the goals of the reform. In the third year of secondary education, regionalization of the baccalaurdat through the establishment of acad6miex has introduced a climate of competitiveness, the effect of which has triggered increases in promotion rates and reduced the various forms of student losses. At the other levels, the reluctance and refusal of educators to accept the fact that most repeaters would, with remedial instruction, be able to succeed in higher classes is often behind the slight slowdown in the improvement of student flows (promotion cn the rise and dropouts on the decline). Moreover, despite the transfer of skilled personnel, formerly employed as teachers, to lower echelon jobs in school administration, the strict directives given to the regional departments have made it possible to maintain the efforts to optimize school management. The ratio of administrative staff to teaching staff has therefore experienced a slight reduction at all education levels. Such efficiency is helping to cut the operating costs of the education system. 12. Curriculum: Preparation of a special education program to help students with learning difficulties needs to be based on the studies commissioned by the Ministry of Education on topics such as the preparation of standardized achievement tests (PSI), diagnostic testing (PS2) and the development of remedial instruction for basic education (PS3). These studies, which are still at the preliminary stage, are being compromised and overstepped in the preparation of such a program. The proposals and recommendations from several studies could still, however, help with the planning of a reform program: (i) Academic and vocational auidance counseling (PS4) The study has successfully identified the psychopedagogic aspects of academic and vocational guidance counseling and has resulted in the proposal of an overall experimental model for future use. Such research should be continued and conducted in greater depth, particularly in the area of human sciences and more specifically in the vital field of academic and vocational guidance counseling practices and procedures. It would be a good idea to set up units that would conduct analyses and experiments on an ongoing basis, and to provide them with the necessary human and financial resources. (ii) Teacher trainina and uyoradino (PS6) The purpose of the survey was essentially to underline teacher training needs. The findings identified two requirements for preliminary training that would be cost-effective: - That the practical aspects be stressed in the training, giving careers in teaching more professional prestige. To achieve this, student teacher internships in primary and secondary schools are most important. - That a strategy be established for the upkeep, maintenance and repair of the physical plant, given its important role in the management of training activities.  - 15 - Refresher courses are urgently needed. While their design and planning in terms of refresher training centers, priority categories, duration, content, staffing, methods and means pose no problem, their organization, management and financing are constraints and even obstacles to their introduction, particularly at the regional and local level. (iii) Role of secondary education personnel (PS7) This study will, an part of the recommended education reform, Ldentify key elements embodied in the recommendations, such as increased accountability of the various categories of personnel based on a precise and clear redefinition of tasks and the restructuring of all departments, the revamping of the initial training of all categories of personnel, the institutionalization of an ongcing refresher training strategy to meet the dictates of scientific and socioeconomic advances, the introduction of joint efforts and collaboration, the introduction of a system of material incentives to encourage a spirit of initiative and innovative efforts at all levels of employment in the education sector, increasing autonomy of school management, the involvemer.t of all socioeconomic partners in cooperative activities and assuming responsibility and, finally, the institutionalization of coordination among the different levels of education in order to mesh all points of view. (iv) Encouragement of irivate education (PS8) The study recommends that sucn encouragem%nt be focused on skills and responsibilities in the education sector being shared between the State and director3 of private schools and training establishments so that the community can be provided with a uniform education. At all levels of education the technical and teaching standards of the private schools will have to be consistent with the goals set for public education. From the legal point of view, current legislation is still inadequate. The investment code awaiting approval has overlooked most benefits associated with the discounts on construction loans. Private establishments should be classified not according to the type of education they provide but according to the size of the establishment and the geographical area in which it is located. The establishment of a land reserve by the local governments should include private education under the same heading as other community infrastructure. (v) Multiorade teaching (PS9) In its summary, the study reports that multigrade teachPig is, in quantitative terms, an unusual practice that i& essentially limited to marginal areas where student enrollment is on the decline. In terms of teaching methods, the way to offset the adverse effects of several grades being taught in a single cla ;s is by WVs. ting an approach based on complementary teaching, including the e :-iio'; of lessons wherever possible, which involves dividing lesson; :..co several segments, viz. an oral/written segment, a teaching/exercise segment 'tc. and simply by teaching certain subjects in tandem and lumping several lessons together  - 16 - into one that is taught to the entire class. As for teacher training, hiring procedures and internchips should seek candidates with the ethical standards and personality traits needed for working in a rural environment, where they must be willing to expand their field of knowledge and to go beyond the usual sociocultural approach to that environment. Performance of the Dongr and the Borrower 13. Performance of the Donor: in hindsight, the Bank's main weakness regarding the education reform program seems to lie in its launching of a program that was too ambitious, overly broad in scope and hard to supervise, particularly during its start-up phase given the modest human and physical resources available to the Borrower for monitoring and implementation. Furthermore, since Bank missions were generally responsible for supervising and preparing several projects, it is hard to say whether sufficient time was spent on supervising the program. The flexibility shown by the Bank, however, particularly when it came to extending the closing date, to some extent contributed towards the eventual success of the program. 14. Performance of the Borrower: The recent strengthening of the management capacity of the project management division helped to some extent to activate the final phase of the program. The reorganization of that division resulted in the creation of four units, respectively responsible for project studies, procurement, operations and accounting. Staffed with qualified people, the division currently has three inspectors, two administrators, three planning consultants, one architect, one engineer and several mid-level managers. -II. Results of the rooram 15. Physical impact: The construction of prefabricated buildings, particularly in the rural areas, made possible the first phase of expanding access to the first cycle of basic schooling. Inspections of certain schools in the program, however, already reveal signs of deterioration in the buildings in certain locations. The problems are primarily attributable to soil conditions affecting support structures and to the quality of the manufactured components. Lighting was also not up to standard. Efforts are therefore needed tco step up the monitoring of the buildings and to reformulate the specifications so that the necessary adjustments are made when the prefabricated components are cast. The provision of special equipment to the training institutions and schools has made it possible to replace old and obsolete equipment with state-of-the-art equipment in education and training. 16. Impact on cost control: The program has had a significant impact in cutting education spending on training and in increasing the workload of teachers. In terms of the efficiency of school management and the sharing of education costs by encouraging the private sector, the measures adopted still do not go far enough. In terms of school construction, optimization of the planned constructions is a goal that needs to be adopted for future projects. 17. Imvact on teachina methods: Regarding student flow, in keeping with the recommendations of the reform, there has been a significant improvement in the  - 17 - "flow rate," particularly for the fifth year of primary education. Secondary enrollments are increasing more slowly, and selection in the ninth year of basic schooling Is more rigorous. The vocational training stream, however, which is one of the absolute prerequisLtes for the success of the reform, has yet to be put in place. 18. Impact on-cujrgicula: The relevance of the proposals and recommendations of certain studies (para 12), is bound to be helpful in shaping the reforms. The obstacles affecting progress on the other studies (PSI, PS2, PS3 and PS5) are attributable, in pars%. to the red tape involved in setting up credit lines and to tax problems. D. Conclusion 19. While the goal of reallocating resources is close to being achieved, the development of education in terms of qualitative objectives has been late in getting started. The important tasks such as bringing the disadvantaged back into the socioeconomic mainstream and increasing their participation through accompanying measures are some of the many goals which will need to be targeted in future projects. The fact still remains that nothing can really be achieved upless general education &nd vocational training are combined into a comprehensive system and some kind of financial assistance is made available to families unable to afford the school expenses of their children.  - 18 - III. SThTIST!CAL INFORMATION A. Related Bank Loans Consistent with Government needs and priorities, Bank lending in education and traininq has evolved from reinforcement of general primary and secondary education (First to Fifth Education Projects, PY65 to FY82) - with the exception of direct support through small project components for manpower training in the sectors of forestry (Second Education Project, FY71), and health, tourism and rural development (Third Education Project, FY76) - to its current emphasis on reinforcing employment-oriented skill training (First and Second Vocational Training Projects, FY86 and FY87), and on introducing structural reforms to increasing access to basic education (Rural Primary Education Project and Rural Basic Education Development Project, FY89 and FY91). B. Program Timetable Actual Phases in Proaram Develonment Planned Date Date Identification 1984 Preparation 198'-85 Appraisal Mission May 1985 Loan Negotiations January 1986 Board Approval March 1986 Loan Effectiveness September 9, 1986 Loan Closing December 31, 1988 December 31, 1989 Loan Disb. Completion June 30, 1989 March 28, 1990 C. Cumulative Estimated and Actual Disbursements (USs millions) Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Appraisal Estimate 69.0 136.0 150.0 Actual 28.4 87.2 112.7 135.0 150.0 Actual as % of Estimate 42% 64% 75% 90% 100%  - 19 - D. Proaram Costs and Financina (US$ millions) 1. Program Costs APPRAISAL ESTIMATE ===== ACTUAL u==== ----------- Foreign Foreign Local Exchang Total Local Exchang Total Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Category: =='' === ====, ===== ======= ===== Construction 241 155 396 1 255 171 426 Equip. & Furn. 12 35 47 | University Fellowships and Second. Scholarships 64 32 96 52 31 83 Teacher Training 124 - 124 101 - 101 Consultants' and Architectural svs. 1 1 2 1 - 1 other 1/ 1,137 27 1,164 1,638 35 1,673 Total 1,579 250 1,829 2,047 237 2,284 .===== ==== ===== ===== ==== = === 2. Program Financing -O--------------- ORIGINAL ACTUAL a. :BRD % of %of % of %of Amount IBRD Total Amount IBRD '.otal category: -==== ==== ====== ===== ===== = Cons7:ruction 25 17 22 15 Equi. & Furn. 6 4 15 10 Univect2ity Fellowships 32 21 31 20 Teacha. Training 86 57 81 54 Consultints' and Arcik.t ctural svs. 1 1 1 1 Total IBRD 150 100 8 150 100 7 .== ===== == b. Government 1,679 92 2,134 93 TOTAL (a+b) 1,829 100 2,284 100 1/ Includes salaries and benefits for staff of primary, secondary and higher education institutions, and for MO2 central and regional administrative staff.  - 20 - E. Proaram Results PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ACTUAL === PROJECTED == ==== ACTUAL- 1984/85 1987/88 1989/90 1987/88 1989/90 PRIMARY LEVEL (grades 1-5) l/ _____________ New intakes to Grade 1 ('000) 2/ 303 499 549 419 424 Total enrollment ('000) 2,200 2,438 2,665 2,103 2,085 Promotion rate Grade 5 to 6 49.0 60.0 84.0 62.2 74.6 Student/teacher ratio 31.1 31.0 n.a. 26.0 24.9 Number of classrooms ('000) 48.9 53.5 n.a. 52.7 S5.7 Unit recurrent cost (1986 DH) 959 780 n.a. 1,119 1,428 UPPER BASIC LEVEL (grades 6-9) ----------------- Total enrollment ('000) 730 961 1,201 972 1,042 Promotion rate Grade 9 to 10 52.1 42.0 40.0 37.6 38.8 Student/teacher ratio 20.5 21.3 n.a. 21.8 20.7 Number of classrooms ('000) 16.0 22.9 n.a. 19.1 20.1 SECONDARY LEVEL (grades 10-12) =______________ Total enrollment ('000) 300 304 320 308 295 Baccalaureate graduates 37.5 40.4 42.4 54.0 n.a. Student/teacher ratio 17.4 17.6 n.a. 16.2 13.3 HIGHER EDUCATION ________________ New intakes 40.4 42.9 44.6 55.9 55.6 3/ Total enrollment ('000) 119.2 151.4 167.9 169.2 185.1 3/ Unit recurrent cost (1986 DH) 8,797 6,487 n.a. 6,760 6,615 3/ I/ Last year of reform program. 2/ New intakes to Grade 1 were 346,000 in 1983/84 and 448,000 in 1985/86. In 1984/85, 6-year-olds were not allowed to enter Grade 1 (legal entry age is 7, although 6-year-olds account for about 20% of new enrollments). In 1983/84, 55000 6-year-olts had been admitted to Grade 1, resulting in a shrunk pool of 7- year-olds the year after. Which explains the dip in new enrollments in 1984/85, and the significant increase the year after. 3/ Data for 1988/89. More recent data not available.  - 21 - F. St,tus of covenants Description of Covenants Source Discussion The Borrower shall: 1. (a) ensure that the study Loan Agreement 3.03 (a) and An interim report was given referred to in part (C) of (b). to the Bank. A final report the project will be carried was not issued, nor were any out, completed and a copy measures to encourage the furnished to the Bank no expansion of private later than December 31. education implemented. 1986; and (b) take all measures required to carry out the recommendations of the study. 2. (a) ensure that the Loan Agreement 3.04 (a) and Out of the 12 studies, only studies referred to in part (b). one was completed and A(l)b, A(3), A(S), A(6) and transmitted to the Bank B(2) of the project are (multi grade teaching) and carried out, completed and a some of its recommendations copy of each study furnished have been introduced on a to the Bank no later than small scale. The interim December 31, 1988; and (b) reports for 7 other studies promptly carry out the were furnished to the Bank. recommendations of such No reports we-e furnished studies. for the remaining 4 studies. Very little follow-up has materialized or can be expected on recommendations of the incomplete studies. 3. Ensure that all Loan Agreement 3.05. The number of scholarships fellowships included in part grew at about the same rate (B)1 of the project are as enrollments. Some of the awarded on the basis of eligibility criteria agreed eligibility criteria at appraisal were enforced, satisfactory to the Bank. thus increasing the number of partial (25%, 50%, 75%) scholarships granted.  - 22 - 3. Increase the rate of Loan Agreement Schedule 6, The promotion rate increased promotion of ztudents from para D. from 49% in June 1985 to 55% 5th to 6th grade such that in 1986, 61% in 1987, 62% in the number of students so 1988 and 1989. promoted in June 1986 represents about 54% of the 5th grade enrollment in that year. 4. Reduce the promotion rate Loan Agreement Schedule 6, The promotion rate was from 9th to 10th grade so para E. reduced from 52% in June 85 that the number of students to 44% in 1986, 40% in 1987, promoted in June 1986 38% in 1988, and 39% in represents about 45% of 9th 1989. grade enrollment in that year. 5. Limit the number of Loan Agreement Schedule 6, New entrants to university students admitted in each para P. increased by the following academic year to the first proportions: 2.4% in 1985- year of university, to a 86, 21% in 1987-88, and level equal to about 102% of decreased by 12% in 1988-89. the total number of students Data for 1989-90 is not admitted to the first year available but further of university during the decreases are unlikely. preceding academic year. G. Use of Bank Resources 1. Staff InDuts (Staff weeks) Stage of cycle Proiect-Cycle FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 TOTAL To Appraisal Departure 26.6 33.3 59.9 Appraisal through Board Approval 17.7 42.1 59.8 Board Approval through Effectiveness 15.3 15.3 Supervision 3.3 26.8 10.3 2.1 2.3 44.8 TOTAL 26.6 51.0 60.7 26.8 10.3 2.1 2.3 178.8  - 23 - W ~~~~~~~~~~~~2. BANK MEhONS Sbhi Of Msb NL of Spofaslo Identification to A2Draisal 10/83 2 4 EC,LO 03/84 4 5 EC,LO,EP,TE 10/84 6 9 EC,EP,LO,TE 12/84 3 3 EC,LO Subtotal: 21 Ap,raisal to Effectiveness 04/85 7 14 EC,EP,GE,AC,TE 09/85 1 0.5 CH Subtotal: 14.5 Supervision 10/86 4 7 TE,GE,LO 01/87 1 1 TE 04/87 3 3 EP,TE,EC 07/87 2 2 EP,TE 11/87 2 3 EP,TE 03/88 2 5 EP,AC 06/88 1 2 AC 11/88 2 2 EP,GE 04/89 2 3 EP,GE 10/89 2 3 EP,GE Subtotal: 31 Grand total: 66.5 Key to symbols: EC: Economist TE: Technical Educator GE: General Educator AC: Architect EP: Education Planner LO: Loan Officer CH: Division Chief or Deputy Chief